All posts made by Majormax in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 29643594 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.42h):
The key question to answer is : Are we now in a BTC Bear Market ? (we will assume for now that BTC is still in an adoption uptrend, but the Bear Market is a correction)
8 weeks is by no means long enough to complete a bear move. After a bull of 2-3 years, the full correction could be expected to be at least a year...and a decline of 85% would not be unusual.
Historical charts are clear. Price moves in long waves, ending in a parabolic move. We have just had that, and a decline from the peak of over 60%, so the parabolic peak could be in.
If the converse is true, then a new all time high should come within the next few months. A failed rally (lower peak) or a sideways move becomes more of a negative indicator as more time passes.
I would suggest being pragmatic and watching price action rather than fixing a view.
Better to sell at a 20% lower level rather than sell now and miss new ath. A move below $6000 would be a sell.
2.
Post 29644566 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.42h):
That's it .... I'm out. This thing is going down in flames.
Selling all my bitcoins to buy bcash, gonna spend the rest of my days playing chums with roger jihan rizun and jbreher while spamming bitcoin transactions like a maniac. Huffing the ether smart contract gaseous Davos lies is much more fun too.
Bitcoin is so much last years shitshow. Central power and control is the future.
somehow i don't believe it
You're probably the bullest bull of all bulls
The /sarc tag was left out, but should have gone in the middle at some point. Exactly where it goes will remove the ambiguity.
3.
Post 29686968 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.42h):
Fear of catching a falling knife: too many false floors already, so almost nobody wants to take the risk.
There is no floor. This is the final Fail.
It could always be the final fail, but that is a lower probability.
One thing which is almost certain is that the 'final fail' will come for most alt coins at some time. BTC can only really fail if something better is superceding it.
4.
Post 29705489 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.42h):
This isnt possible man still going lower
This is a fucking crash a bloothbath
3rd world war Damn hollecaust this isnt normal anymore guys...
About as normal as bitcoin gets. Unless you figure in a lot more down side. But then it's still normal. The charts are available everywhere, have a look at history.
Destination low is sub $1500. Thats the long term chart. Each long wave down ends just above the previous wave high, which in this case was $1200 in Dec 2013.
Already gone $19000 down to $6000, so over halfway there.
Best to get it over asap.
5.
Post 29706743 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.42h):
This isnt possible man still going lower
This is a fucking crash a bloothbath
3rd world war Damn hollecaust this isnt normal anymore guys...
About as normal as bitcoin gets. Unless you figure in a lot more down side. But then it's still normal. The charts are available everywhere, have a look at history.
Destination low is sub $1500. Thats the long term chart. Each long wave down ends just above the previous wave high, which in this case was $1200 in Dec 2013.
Already gone $19000 down to $6000, so over halfway there.
Best to get it over asap.
We need blood in the streets for a healthy correction
My panicking friends have been asking me if they should get out ASAP, so that's a good sign we've entered the capitulation stage...
Getting there, but volume not high enough.
The capitulation wave would likely see record volume for a few days (~$30BN per day), and a spike low in one of those days.
I dont know what that price will be, but sub $2000 fits with the long term chart.
6.
Post 29707037 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.42h):
I was obviously a bit too optimistic when refreshing the poll a few days ago.
In other news, it sounds like even Masterluc doesn't know WTF the bottom will be:
I really do not know where to fall further. There's a wild support. Weekly MA20, daytime MA200, Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of all annual growth, historical trend lines ... In general, all this should bounce off. When drains allow ...
Here to you and nashdachnye traders. The reverse side of the ETF is yours. Let them do it .... I expected a general decrease in volatility when all this was beginning to be predicted. And it is - that's what it is Mihalych.
We have 8 days before Feb. 14, which is an eternity in bitcoinlandia...
I expect $10k plus within that time-frame, easy peasy... ...
(meekly praying in the corner)Possible but unlikely. $10k maybe sometime in the next month. The ultimate low (sub $2000 ?) is not likely until 2019.
All conjecture of course, but I am basing my figure on a repeating long term pattern.
7.
Post 29707663 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.42h):
Do you think this bloodbath for today is over?
It seems like market is recovering
nope
Between 2018 and 2013 there had been 5 Years.
Once could argue that this meltdown could heal in another 5~10 years. But I doubt that. The momentum has been lost, the notation of the currency as a store of value destroyed.
The bear phase could end in 2 years, but now there is the danger of another crypto taking the lead in that time, so it is possible that we have seen the final high.
The best thing to do now is write off your holding, go away and do somthing else for a year or so.
Most people will rant and rage for a few more months, until they reach that conclusion.
8.
Post 29714120 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.42h):
Everyone is so bearish here that the bottom must be IN already.
No, people are still buying and HODLers are still holding. We need panic on high volume. The current bounce to $6xxx is pathetic. More to come.
Agree. Saying that all along.
A couple of days of $40BN+ volume, and a spike low.
Doesnt matter where the low is, but ~$2000 feels about right (leaves a gap to the 2013 high of $1200).
Price/time relationship is not yet right either. 6 months to 2 years is a more proportional bear market.
9.
Post 30067641 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.43h):
Pump done and there. Those for the short term may consider selling in this region
Yes. Overhead resistance now strong in the $8-$10000 region.
The only question is : Will there be one more test of $10k, and then the next leg down, or do we drift down from here ?
Lots of support at $2-3000 , but it will take many months, or maybe a year or two to get there.
Only a steady move above $12k would restore the bull case.
10.
Post 30196222 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.43h):
really interested to see what will happen at the 8190-8160 area
Like I already said, newbie, it does not matter until it gets down to $7k-ish or perhaps $6,666... then we are fucked... that is if it gets there.
Please speak for yourself. When price gets to 6666, and you r fucked, can I have your merits
?
Personally, I'm selling the up bounces.
You have a plan, and that is good.
Taking a view that $2000 would be the bottom, and $1000 would indicate failure of BTC. Those levels have some basis in the historical charts, if you view the whole price history of BTC as 5 big waves.
The 5 highs can be estimated at 3x to 10x the previous high, but more accurately, the lows can be estimated just above the preceding high. That gives the $2000 and $1000 levels.
It is only one way of viewing it, but better than choosing more arbitary levels.
11.
Post 30244256 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.44h):
My first attempt of using trading view...
The problem I have with these projected ‘bewildering lows’ is that they are planted just around the
halvening. I just do not see this happening in 2020. If it happens, it happens in 2018 or 2019. But somehow, a full blown crypto winter seems far away. So that leaves 2018 as the most probable candidate, should a $2,000 scenario materialise.
Actually, I put in lows in late 2019 to be fair, then almost a flat with an upward bias until or close to halvening, then a takeoff.
But this is just a sketch with lines that could be drawn differently.
I guess my main point is a zigzag in 2018, hard down in 2019, recovery in 2020, then off to the races (higher).
I would like to see your projection, though.
Then I would guess you are follwing the long-wave chart.
A low of $2000 rhymes with the previous major lows, which are just above the top of the high-before-last.
Time frame would need to be 1 to 2 years for that big move to play out.
The alternative is that we are still in the exponential wave up, which looks increasingly unlkely now, and the longer price fails to make a new ATH, the more likely it is we are in a full Bear Market..
12.
Post 31905844 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.47h):
I think that there will be 12-24 months of slow bleed, that will have these little sharp upward spikes that the sheep will repeatedly call "reversals".
This is how you get the sheep excited enough to stay in the market while you do the shearing. History will repeat itself.
You are quite correct.
A good indicator that the bear market is still on track, is the number of posters who think the opposite and maintain faith that the price will rise.
Having watched every twist and turn of the market since 2012, the repetition is easy to see.
If you are invested, going to fiat is still a risky option, because the hard part is buying back later.
13.
Post 32582640 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.48h):
I haven't eaten in 6 days.
Actually on purpose...but it is appropriate. Maybe at the 10 day mark I will finish the fast and the sun will once again shine on Bitcoin. Like how after Jesus fasted for 40 days he came out and everything worked out just fine...
it is honorable that you are on the way to take one for the team, but starving to death is kind of a too big sacrifice.
Try one day fasts every time BTC drops more than 20%. After a year or two you will have lost some weight.
This bear market has only just started. The roadmap goes from 19500 to below 2000, and it will be a long wait, but there will eventually be a turn.
14.
Post 32582811 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.48h):
The markets are getting worse and worse as the days are getting worse. We can say that Etherum is experiencing a much more radical decline. But most importantly, how will the Altcoins recover after this hour.
Most (nearly all) altcoins will not recover. The ecosystem cannot sustain them.
The market is in a bear phase, and will be for the rest of 2018 at least.
15.
Post 32594935 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.48h):
The markets are getting worse and worse as the days are getting worse. We can say that Etherum is experiencing a much more radical decline. But most importantly, how will the Altcoins recover after this hour.
Most (nearly all) altcoins will not recover. The ecosystem cannot sustain them.
The market is in a bear phase, and will be for the rest of 2018 at least.
But you know don't you, that if I was ever to sell a big portion of my bitcoin, the market would take an amazing turn upwards and go to new all-time-highs, and I would never want to buy back in. It's the rule of perfectly bad market timing. And I would be able to brag that I sold at the exact bottom. That is why I will hold regardless of where the price goes.
Yes, no doubt correct. ... and you are not ready to sell yet, but would be more ready at say $2500.
The key thing now (and it will prove impossible for most people) is to accept that whatever you hold will decline in $ price by another 75% (making 90% decline in total), and that will take place in a grinding downwards pattern, including long counter-trend rallies, spread over ~2 years.
Too difficult for most ppl to accept. Best course is to go away and do something else for a while.
16.
Post 32596527 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.48h):
Most of them said that we will never see 4 digits again.
I don't recall any of the regulars saying that. Anyone who did is a delusional toad.
20 grand was the clear peak of the bubble. For a bubble pop to halt before the 50% loss mark would make it... not a bubble.
Yes, no doubt correct. ... and you are not ready to sell yet, but would be more ready at say $2500.
The key thing now (and it will prove impossible for most people) is to accept that whatever you hold will decline in $ price by another 75% (making 90% decline in total), and that will take place in a grinding downwards pattern, including long counter-trend rallies, spread over ~2 years.
Too difficult for most ppl to accept. Best course is to go away and do something else for a while.
I didnae realise it was all that certain and 100% locked in. Now I do I'll take it to the bank and cash it.
Every post is expressing an opinion. Time will tell who is right.
17.
Post 32596628 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.48h):
Bloodbath to $2k incoming.
I wish it would happen that quickly, but unfortunately it will take some time.
18.
Post 32607005 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
Sorry guys, my fault
Bought some ether at 500, now everything will fall
I will tell you guys next before I buy
So... you just bought what EOS dumped?
Recently, 50,000 ETH were deposited at Bitfinex coming all the way from EOS crowd-sale.
Good point.
ETH is now experiencing downside pressure from all the stored ICO funds.
FOMO is now gradually being replaced by FOLAYM (Fear of Losing All your Money).
There is no telling how low it might go, but I would say a good place too look is around where the real ICO boom started, May 2017. Funds raised when ETH was in the $100-200 range are not yet willing to sell, and might mark a floor.
19.
Post 32607112 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
After years of watching bitcoin, I can confidently say for it now, "The more the dump, the better the jump!"
Dominance back up to 45.5%. Crypto market-cap now $275 billion. I'm speculating it can't go less than $250 billion.
It is unlikely to go below 100B, but I think well below 250B is a certainty in the next year or so.
20.
Post 32607916 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
After years of watching bitcoin, I can confidently say for it now, "The more the dump, the better the jump!"
Dominance back up to 45.5%. Crypto market-cap now $275 billion. I'm speculating it can't go less than $250 billion.
It is unlikely to go below 100B, but I think well below 250B is a certainty in the next year or so.
Time is compressed these days. Each boom and each bust is compressed into a shorter and shorter amount of time. I am a lot less sure of my predictions on how low it will go than I am with the prediction that, how ever low it ends up going, I do not think this will be a protracted multi year long ordeal like it was in the past.
You could be right, in the sense that, in stock/commodity cycle highs and lows, Time and Price have a relationship. eg If Price reaches one target, then time may not reach another, and vice-versa. ie.. one or the other can be targeted more easily than both.
21.
Post 32609141 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
It is unlikely to go below 100B, but I think well below 250B is a certainty in the next year or so.
How'd you figure that one out when you've said BTC is going to $2K and the alts are doomed?
This is how ... Rough figures only. All fits together if you consider my other prognosis : Not all alts are doomed (just most of them , numerically). Some will be in for very big rises : their market cap share will rise relative to BTC.
Very roughly : BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.
22.
Post 32609462 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
This is how ... Rough figures only. All fits together if you consider my other prognosis : Not all alts are doomed (just most of them , numerically). Some will be in for very big rises : their market cap share will rise relative to BTC.
Very roughly : BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.
How much time do you think we will be at 2k, considering the fundamentals and the increasing adoption by big investors?
Well, thats a tricky one, but if past history is anything to go by, the low print could be instantaneous, ie less than a day. (or it might be a double bottom)
23.
Post 32609533 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
Very roughly : BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.
If that ever happens, I'll do what McAffee has promised for 2020 1 million's prediction.
Ever and Never are bold or foolish words.
24.
Post 32613140 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
Earlier, someone said something to the effect "The dump to 2k could be avoided if more dumb weak hands sell at 5k" - but I couldn't find the post and quote/credit the author.
However, those words resonated with me - and it also fits your movie nicely.
Who thinks that the situation can be summarized with a message like "Papas & mamas, dumb newcomers, please sell everything off before 5k! Doom! Doom!
"?
Well, yes : and reasons :
Price/ Time/ Volume/
Targets are mutually combined and partly exclusive. This is advanced trading logic.
By example in this case:
IF volume gets high enough, it will absolve price from getting low enough.
IF time elapsed (at say, low price level) is sufficient, it makes up for lower volume... in this case we are talking many months at the lows.
IF price gets low enough, it can mark the bottom (ie spike low).
So therefore , price target cannot be set in stone where volume and time can vary so much. Of course nobody can make precise predictions, but you will find that highs and lows over many markets long term have these peculiar properties of P/T/V .
25.
Post 32615432 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
Who thinks that the situation can be summarized with a message like "Papas & mamas, dumb newcomers, please sell everything off before 5k! Doom! Doom!
"?
Well, yes : and reasons :
Price/ Time/ Volume/
Targets are mutually combined and partly exclusive. This is advanced trading logic.
By example in this case:
IF volume gets high enough, it will absolve price from getting low enough.
IF time elapsed (at say, low price level) is sufficient, it makes up for lower volume... in this case we are talking many months at the lows.
IF price gets low enough, it can mark the bottom (ie spike low).
So therefore , price target cannot be set in stone where volume and time can vary so much. Of course nobody can make precise predictions, but you will find that highs and lows over many markets long term have these peculiar properties of P/T/V .
Aha! Great insight! In other words, what counts is mainly the sum of volume * price... right?
I'd never seen it from this angle, but it makes a lot of sense.
One thing I like about this place is that there's always something to take away. At least for me.
Yes, you are a logical thinker.
Most people seem to think that there are pre determined price levels, whereas of course that is not true. You can always make estimates with if/but caveats, and I attempt to do that. My validation is in my successful trade over decades. I have made all my income and assets myself, entirely from trading.
You are right in that this is a great thread, with only a minimal amount of trolls and ad hominem attackers.
26.
Post 32793111 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
Hmm, I must not be seeing what you're seeing, JJG.
Something important that you said is that one can refer to previous periods as general frames of how the market will behave in the immediate future, and I think a lot of people misunderstand that. I'm glad to see you explaining that in such a great way. The price discovery near $13,000 is not sufficiently done, and I think that it will take more than a year to reach back over the heights of last year.
I can't think of anything fun ether. I was hoping to come up with some fun "I told you so", but... yeah. I guess we just wait and see.
I think you are looking at different timescales yourself and JJG. On longer timescales bitcoin is still bullish as fuck, it came from literally zero a few years back and now thousands of dollars. On shorter timescales bitcoin is quite bearish though. Your post did come across a bit like FUD but your point is very valid that we are in a bearish wave. I think the argument is really about the trend, is the trend now bearish or is it still bullish (despite a huge motherfuckn correction). I posted a chart a few days back with both bullish and bearish channels, bullish on longer timescale , bearish on shorter timescale. Only time will tell which trend wins). My own view is that I think bitcoin has fallen too far for a quick return to euphoria. It pains me to say that because I am an original perma bull. I will probly HODL. In long term timescale, bitcoin is still bullish as fuck.
Thats about right.
Bear trends can last along time, the 4 major ones were between 5 months and 3 years, with a mean of around 2 years. That is why I think we have some way to go in this one, added to the fact that the majority believe the recovery is imminent, which is a good contrarian indicator. I don't claim to know precisely, but just present the various cases on their merits.
You can always make an argument either way when looking at any charts or price trends, but this thread is helpful because it takes a large snapshot of sentiment.
27.
Post 32793176 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
Are we going to get another Bitcointalk whale screwing with the post count to hold back the 20,000th page as we did for the 10,000th? I wonder who that was and what their aim was.
Ever try to mass dump your own posts? It takes an eternity if it isn't your thread. Adam was behind the biggest shakeouts
Goat made some script or something to clear his many thousands of posts when he made his exit from
BTCT.org
Otherwise, enjoy your day(s) deleting individual posts
It is going to be great fun watching the deletes and adjustments as posters try to get the first place on 20000
28.
Post 32793823 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
Crypto is all about magic numbers.
20,000 is the target Jamie Dimon called when BTC was at 3,000. He almost nailed it.
So 20,000 is a magic number.
29.
Post 32794268 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
--- Happy 20k Wall Observer pages ---
Party
Btw, here is my high quality gif (cough)
Edit : hahaha I won, NO MANIPULATION ! please
Pssst : 400,000 post anyone? (nah i will let you win this time)
Wait, you deserve the 20,000 page!
+merits
Yes, see if the deletes can get this post up there !
30.
Post 32945305 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
We are repeating the same patterns from 2013/2014/2015.
Bitcoin will drop back down to 2-3k and consolidate there for a while before resuming the next major bull run, probably fluctuating between 3 and 5 grand for a while.
Eth will return to $200ish, Bitcoin Cash will drop to 300-400
This is my prediction and I don't give a damn if you think I'm a nutcase.
I can only go off what I see happening now and so far the pattern is almost the same.
On what do you base those predictions ? Please give some supporting evidence or calculations.
31.
Post 33327784 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.
Thanks for sharing your opinion.
One objection I have to the second part of your reply is that trying to make out 1-2 years beyond now is probably a sterile exercise. The "real world" can push a lot, in either direction, during such a long time frame.
That time frame is indeed a long way out in terms of possible events, but it is surprising how often chart analysis works out correct over the longer term. The short to medium term breaks down with unforseen events, yet the long term is a product of very large numbers of small chaotic events, and tends to exhibit its own structure regardless (or perhaps because of : classical chaos theory).
32.
Post 33327998 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
Am I alone in thinking that this is the true beginning of the demise of bitcoin?
I was castigated on here when I posted this 10 days ago.
I still strongly believe we are watching crypto currencies die.
I want a few apologies when it becomes apparent to all.
What reason do you have for that ?
Many projects will of course die. Crypto is most likely to survive. Even BTC at $2-3000 would simply be back to long term support, not dead.
33.
Post 33328085 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
I would respectfully suggest that Jamie Dimon has set the support and resistance for the next few years. $2400/$20,000.
In Sept 2017 he said BTC was a fraud, but also 'don't short, it may go to $20,000'. The low after his remarks was $2400.
That may seem like a wide range, but volatility will remain high.
34.
Post 33511927 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
Starting to look like that....all the friends and relatives are 'piling on' that I am an Idiot..and that I should sell, sell, sell it all!
Luckily, (or unluckily depending on how low BTC and ALTS dump) ...I am essentially 'immune' to peer pressure on such...however...they are sooooo wound up about it
I may cause a couple coronary's among my friends... (hmmmm)
....1. For the vulnerable ones : Tell 'em you sold your BTC 'to avoid total loss'. Then try (!) not to mention it again. They will soon forget about it. ... Flaw : Impossible for you to keep quiet in future....
Here lies my confusion... WTF does it matter if I take a flyer on crypto?
....2. Pretend the price is now at 2k, with alts worse. Add up your total crypto worth. Not worth selling now ? Just Hodl and concentrate on other stuff. Hell, you must have taken this sort of risk again and again since 2013. as you say , does it matter ?...
it is that 1.5 billion USD hanging out there from mt. gox that is the cause of all this IMHO
...I dont think MtGox is an issue. This is just a Bear Market/ Crypto Winter that was ready to roll anyway. It may need 2 years + to shake out all the weak hands. Think 2014... not a pleasant thought, but we made it through that one. (how did you manage then ?)
Sell a very little now and again if you want to make yourself feel better. Then just hunker down.
I have 2 fulltime businesses to run (unconnected with Crypto), so my attention was fully taken in 2014-16. Start a new venture.
Just my 2c
35.
Post 33514243 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
Most of the ppl in Crypto (speculation) have a very short time horizon. A days action may seem like a lot.
They find it difficult to see the longer term picture. That is why there is so much conflicting opinion.
A view on price always has the caveat of a time frame.
36.
Post 33522229 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
How much lower can this go, I don’t want to be seeing below $6,000 but it really wouldn’t surprise me. We’ve been in free fall for months.
Probably back to where it was only about 6 months ago. $2500.
1 year ago it was $1000, but I doubt it could go that low.
The time taken is more important, though. Another 2 years of declines would be tough. Best hope is for a swift bumpy ride down to $2000 over the next few months. We are in a Bear Market, and best to get it over with asap.
A rise in the next month and failed retest of $10000 would be bad news.
37.
Post 33522572 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
No one is going to take this one away from us. Just relax and find out at what moment last year price broke through $6k.
There is nothing to worry about.
Agreed. Price broke to the upside above $6k just 5 short months ago. Taking a long view is better.
Relax... even if it gets back to $2k that doesn't negate the long bull case.
38.
Post 33537421 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
Daily volume needs to double or triple before the end of the day to turn this into a legitimate support bounce.
Might need to breach $6000 again to do it.
Anyone who bought in at less than $1000, this is still too expensive to buy MOAR.
Anyone who bought in from $1000 to $5000 has trigger fingers hovering over the sell button.
Good explanation as to why this has lower to go, more time to go, and nowhere near enough volume. Lots of ups and downs, false drops and rallies to come in the next year or so.
39.
Post 33537656 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
I don't like how there's like no desperation at all, way to many hodlers. Thats not how capitulation is supposed to work.
Because we still are months away from that point
Could even be a year or two.
Still way too much hope, too much anger at the forecasts of lower prices.
At the final low, there will have been capitulation, resignation, and full acceptance of the bear market.
40.
Post 33537860 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
The price action becomes clear and obvious, if you treat the last 6 months rise and fall as the exception.
If price had simply risen from $3000 in Sept to $4000 now, the bull trend would still be intact.
Price just went too far too fast.
41.
Post 33538973 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
Bitcoin price $6650 and falling.
..........
the more the dump = the better the jump
Just hodl.
Agree, but I would add :
1. Be prepared to see much lower prices. It is possible, but not certain.
2. Sell enough to make you less fearful of a big drop (irrespective of your cost level)
42.
Post 33540568 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
As I said below:
It seems like so many bears where sleeping while the bottom was set in with huge volume of capitulation on February 5th.
I am glad you are so certain. You comment is valid. IMO only time will tell.
Agree the volume might have been sufficient. However time elapsed was not very much.
It didn't give enough opportunity for enough ppl to decide, get out or hold.
An alternative scenario would be a very long ( year) consolidation between $5k and $9k.
I personally would rather see a sharp further fall to ~$2500, to get it over with, in the next few months.
After that the rise could be strong.
43.
Post 33637469 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
The level of bullishness in this thread is bizarre and concerning since I normally factor in a reverse sentiment indicator.
Quite true. Not bizarre at all when you consider it.
Sentiment has been bullish since the high of 19k, and will likely stay on the plus side (give or take ) until we reach the bear market lows of 2-3k.
It is worth monitoring just in case there is an unexpected change to widespread despair. Try posting positives and negatives in different messages. The responses to bearish posts are the most telling. (Like bullish, Dislike bearish).
44.
Post 33637681 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
It has merit that is for sure. FA can be a important tool to use in determining probabilities. Really the only "chart" needed it this one imo. Not many coins for sale on the open market and a whole lotta fiat sitting on the sidelines waiting to enter.
Unfortunately, the support and resistance on the order books seems to always turn out to be a reverse indicator. It appears many traders don't like to lay their cards out on the table. Either they have stops in place or have a bot running. Many do not mind being a market taker rather than a market maker. In my view, the order book is a bunch of smoke and mirrors set up to trick the easily fooled.
That nearly always seems to work.
It may as you say, be intended to misdirect, but I personally believe that the effect comes from the way large potential traders react to the order book. All about volume.
A whale (lets say seller in this instance for illustration) would not want to dump into a relatively thinly bid order book as he would take out bids too far down...so he waits patiently for stronger bids, and then sells into those. The reverse in the case of a buyer.
I do that myself in thinly traded alts. It is the only way to get a half decent price.
45.
Post 33694803 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
No: this is where the bottom is WAY more close than the ATH.
Of course. The bottom is less than $7000 away, the ATH is $13000 away. (absolutely 100% certain, not guesswork !)
There is a point to thinkng about it this way.
46.
Post 33762451 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
The polarity here and the unequivocal confidence that each party is 100% right, is amazing.
Just like all politics/economics/media, then.
47.
Post 33762889 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
Denial is the current dominating sentiment.
I fear that is correct. However unpalatable it may be, BTC is headed for ~$1500. It will take a year or two of arguments and pain, false dawns , rises + dips and becalmed prices at times.
However , in the end it will be a positive development for Crypto. Regulation, infrastructure, adoption and acceptance will have to take place without the frantic price speculation. That will ensure that only real development will take place, as the speculators will be steadily burnt out.
IMO only of course.
48.
Post 33776696 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
The polarity here and the unequivocal confidence that each party is 100% right, is amazing.
Bitcoin bears are right 80% of the time and still keep on ending on the losing side of the bet.
That is similar to financial derivatives and stocks.
Maths is always stacked against bears.
That said, BTC is in a Bear market, and you would not be wise to go long on leverage.
Can also get wiped out going short in a bear market, as rallies are sharp.
49.
Post 33792632 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
why are there no 5digits in the poll ? whatever price is I love to see the 5 digit possibility
Only 2 weeks. 5 digits is outside the range of probability.
Even a book-keeper might give odds of better than 10:1
50.
Post 34035712 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.51h):
For everyone claiming bitcoin is already in a bear market - yea, the price is imploding and everything, but I'd say the vast majority of people in craptocurrency are all still way up. The bottom of a bear market is when most people are either underwater or somewhere near break even. This is why capitulation has probably not occurred yet and you should not be surprised to see the terror wave rolling through eventually.
Maybe so, but there will be a bounce or several along the way.
It may take some time.
51.
Post 34035859 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.51h):
Ok motherfuckers. We are at the bottom or close to it.
Sell pressure will ease after April 17 (US tax payment day) and Bitcoin will bounce.
We may wobble a bit between here and there but I doubt we will get as low as $5k in the next 12 days.
I will watch the action carefully around that date.
I am not sure that tax selling has a lot of effect. Other forces are much larger.
There may be a bounce, but it is likely to have another driver.
52.
Post 34260236 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.51h):
Market history shows that it is safer to short in an established bear market, than at or near ath's.
After a 70% drop, another 70% drop is more likely, not less. Nearly everyone would think it was the other way around.
Not specific to Crypto, just actual history. Whether the 'investors' will be right or wrong, I cannot tell.
53.
Post 34260340 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.51h):
Recently, fiat settled derivatives are one of my pet worries. There is no proof that they actually did much real damage by themselves yet: some reasonable sounding opinions argue that it's more of a psychological thing, like metaFUD/metaFOMO. These opinions sound reasonable on the basis of the numbers reported. Volume on futures was - is! - too low to harm seriously (although, with the underlying bitcoin market as thin as it is now, nothing is impossible).
However, if Soros and other big players are really getting into the cornfield, it's going to be tough play. I really hope the SEC approves some ETF, but backed by actual bitcoin, stored in blockchain addresses known to the public.
Along the same lines, futures and similar derivatives should be entirely bitcoin-backed. "For delivery", as they say, since delivering bitcoin is as easy as can be. BY doing so, you can push and pull the market only according to how many coins - not dollars - you hold. You can probably push/pull a bit further than that, because exchanges are quick to kiss the right ass, but when you finally have to deliver, you have to buy or sell actual bitcoin. Let the markets (and the unavoidable slippage) do the rest.
Agreed.
The future or an ETF are only a proxy for investors who cannot take reponsibility for their own holdings. Unlike Gold or Stock derivatives, I can see no effective transfer mechanism for the derivative price to significantly affect the actual traded price of BTC.
54.
Post 34761349 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.52h):
I will leave this one here:
Using your chart ... 2014 high $1150 low $188 = Fall of 84% Peak to trough took ~14 months
Applying that to current situation : 84% fall from 2017 high of 19500 = $3200 approx in around Feb 2019.
If you are a Hodler, it may alleviate anxiety to use this roadmap. The low would only be 9 months away, although the recovery would be slow.
55.
Post 37041075 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.55h):
Momentum is gone guys. The plan was always to push bitcoin to ridiculous heights for no reason and then bleed it on noobs for years to come.
I am truly sorry.
Was there a missing /s tag ?
Momentum is in fact gone for now. Try not to worry about the long downtrend, its just a cycle. Area below $5000 needs a second test, and the process will be long and painful. Look beyond 2019 for new ATH.
56.
Post 37965137 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.56h):
Here's to hoping that your forecast comes true!
Hopefully the drop to below 4k will be done inside 2018. The harder case would be a long 3 year grind lower.
I personally see 2.5k as being strong support (the 'Jamie Dimon' September low), although I don't think that will last long.
57.
Post 37965896 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.56h):
I'm really surprised to see such a complete solution in a version 1 product. Know what I mean? When someone comes up with something this novel, normally, the first attempt will crash and burn. So I give Satoshi a lot of credit. He deserves every single bitcoin he owns.
How do you know BTC was version 1 ? How many versions might not have survived ?
58.
Post 38222730 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.56h):
Are we going to re-test $6,000? :/
The trend is down, and needs a proper base to reverse. If it can happen quickly , then the bounce might be more substantial. However my fear is that the slow bleed takes a few months, and would then turn into an extended bear market. Slope of Hope. That scenario indicates the 2500 low is possible in 2 years.
The alternative is a quick carnage in a drop to 5500-6000 (within a month , say) and a proper floor established there. Optimistic case is the new uptrend can make 15k inside a year.
The conclusion is we don't want a weak rise right from here.
59.
Post 38254088 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.56h):
Currently 18.5% of your guys think BTC will be over 12K May 31
I personally voted for sub 6K, but price could be in the 6,000-$6,500 area
Or it could be anything else between $7,000 & $10,000. The way you’ve posted there is overly bearish & suspiciously shilling.
Only 8 days away. There is a very high probability of 7500-8500. IMO a pointless vote.
60.
Post 38254176 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.56h):
Currently 18.5% of your guys think BTC will be over 12K May 31
I personally voted for sub 6K, but price could be in the 6,000-$6,500 area
Or it could be anything else between $7,000 & $10,000. The way you’ve posted there is overly bearish & suspiciously shilling.
Or anything between 6000 and 10000. 7-10 is Overly bullish
61.
Post 38255029 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.56h):
Currently 18.5% of your guys think BTC will be over 12K May 31
I personally voted for sub 6K, but price could be in the 6,000-$6,500 area
Or it could be anything else between $7,000 & $10,000. The way you’ve posted there is overly bearish & suspiciously shilling.
Or anything between 6000 and 10000. 7-10 is Overly bullish
Even though you are kind of serious, Majormax, I will take your above characterization as "dry" joke. As opposed to a "wet" joke.
Forgot the /sarc
..but just demonstrating that this kind of poll is pointless in such a short timeframe.
Its just a bell-curve probability around the current price. Ask any option/future trader. Maths
62.
Post 38481303 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.56h):
call me when bitcorn goes to 2000 we all know it's comin, it can be long tho, many fools on the way down
meanwhile i will buy metals because the end of civilisation is close
Which bit is sarc ?
63.
Post 38656414 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.56h):
YAY!!! Nice!!!
Finally!!! This stopped dragging... We gonna have 20k by July/August!!!
This makes me very happy!
Honestly I'm just happy it isn't running away $7300 is in the weird 7200- 7600 we've been at the last few days.
We need a huge f^cking dip to get over 10k faster...
The sooner 5-6k comes... the better!
3k would be better.. but I don't think it will happen fast enough.
I still believe we are in a long bear market. That has to play itself out fully before a meaningful rise can resume.
I really hope I am wrong : I stated the same about 2 months ago and am wishing for something to change my mind.
64.
Post 38656572 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.56h):
I think when you have a unregulated market where the price is going up rapidly from 6K to 19K, there is bound to be some price manipulation going on there as well from big whales / investors behind the scene.
That is a good way of looking at it.
The last phase of the rise only started at the end of Sep, after the Dimon Dip, going from ~3k to 19k in 3 months. The main driver could have been anticipation of CME/CBOT futures.
If you pretend it never happened, then a 3k floor doesn't look so bad.
65.
Post 38769795 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.56h):
Damn when is it gonne stop?
Dropping fast now...
Someone with charts how things looking for now
MasterLuc does not think it looks good...
Why is Bitcoin there? At bitcoin, everything is bad in the mid-term. In the week-long picture, you can see yourself - in the negative zone of the BB, the falling ma20 and everything like that presses from above. Where do we fall? On my previous charts, there is a historical logarithmic support line in the 3-4k area, depending on how to navigate. In the area of 2000, we are met by a week-long ma200. I consider the support of this curve to be absolute at this stage. It just can not be pierced.
Bear the wind blows to us from Wall Street. There are very clever guys with big swaps, they are shaking the same button in all markets, including bitcoin. This is an exhaustive explanation of what is happening.
Once again I say bulls sleep at least until the 19 th year.
Damn if we go to 3k-4K thats realy bad for BTC, from 20k to 3k is not good.
I hope your wrong... if your not then iT Will be a hard time for BTC owners including my self.
On the contrary, I think 3k would be good for BTC. The parabolic move up from 2.5k only took 4 months, too fast, and too overbought.
The price has to get oversold before a strong low is established. Nothing to worry about in the long term.
I present a very different outlook to most ppl. , and have always gravitated to the contrarian point of view.
The very biggest scale picture : I count 4 large price waves of adoption since 2011. The chart points are classic formations, like a single huge bull move. The previous high supports the next-but-one low (in fact there is always a significant gap : that is an indicator of the strength of the big move).
The series is (approx).
Highs : $32, $200, $1200, $19000.
Lows : $50, $270, ( ) $2000 fits quite well here. It would still leave the series intact.
If this is correct, I would not expect the price to spend much time below $3000, blink and you might miss it. It could take a year to get there.
These levels also fit well with the Dimon Dip in September 2017, to $2500, which is where the real parabola started.
66.
Post 38774072 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.56h):
Time to go long ?
on every dip i think its good to go long ..... but you never no whats gonna happen on short time.....
i never go short or long just hodl
Perhaps going long or short a small amount (say 5-10 % of your total) would provide a bit of sport while you HODL the rest , just to help you follow the price moves.
It's either that, or go away , don't look at BTC, and do something else for the rest of the year.
67.
Post 38806751 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.56h):
If this is correct, I would not expect the price to spend much time below $3000, blink and you might miss it. It could take a year to get there.
These levels also fit well with the Dimon Dip in September 2017, to $2500, which is where the real parabola started.
I hope your wrong haha, i hope we dont go that low...
but if it goes i have Some money to buy more..
Believe me I really, really hope I am wrong.
Unfortunately I have found in life, that Hope is not usually an effective driver of actual outcomes..
On the positive side, I think we may see 9k later this year, (before 3k), so another chance to sell if you aren't prepared to HODL through the winter.
68.
Post 39776815 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.57h):
I hate to be a bear...I think we have a good chance of hitting 4900 -5200 in July to August. Hopefully that would form a bottom. Again it is anyone's guess.
https://i.imgur.com/yDwJNH5.jpgThe original r0ach call of flash crash to $3k then bounce to $4.2k-4.4k is still in play. I'd like it to go to zero and just die so people can get back to sound money (silver and gold), but I fear it will likely bounce from the $3k flash crash and sideways in the $4xxx range for a while, then some pump and dumpers will attempt to pump and dump again after next halving.
3k is going to take a year or two. A flash crash would be more positive for the price as it would shake out weak hands and form a solid base.
Another 2000 similar pages of posts on this thread, and a slow rollercoaster downwards is, unfortunately, the more likely course.
69.
Post 39783054 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.57h):
Here's a chart I posted on May 24, 2018 in my publication I linked everyone to above with a focus on end of 2014 to 2015: I provided an additional scenario to consider with Blue text bubbles. If that scenario plays out to take us down even further, then we're looking at the $4,000 to $,4500 range potentially. I'm still leaning towards the scenario I provided in the first chart. I'm hoping we are currently located similar to where you see the 2nd AR (Automatic Rally) going down to the Spring/Test in the chart below.
Thanks. Proper (but relatively simple straightforward) technical analysis here. It is always correct to propound at least 2 opposing scenarios.
If comparing with the 2014-2016 chart, the time frame needs to coincide to be valid. That will not be a popular view, because it consigns the Wall Observers to another year or two of an anxious bear market.
I am hoping for the better scenario, although my instinct and experience tells me that hope doesn't normally coincide with realism.
70.
Post 39804736 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.57h):
Support at $7175 looking strong. Probably we're gonna see a jump now but I'm literally tired of seeing stupid head of Mr. Bart Simpson again and again.
Within the last 3 hours, I've received two calls from my family members asking how they can buy bitcoin right now. Surprisingly, they've been keenly observing BTC to USD rate at Google and today they think is the right time to buy.
Uh-oh. I wish you hadn't said that !
71.
Post 39816361 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.57h):
People say no way the market is completely different etc. Said that as we were at 19k. We seeing same patterns as in 2013/14 after the gox crash. We'll going to 2 or 3k slowly but surely. Im in long term, no I dont want cheap coins and just saying this.
I agree, and nothing I have seen since December causes me to change my mind. The hacks, FUD, good and bad news are all trivial compared with the Big Trend, which will probably steamroller everything else for the next year or two.
The December high was an overbought extreme caused in part by the opening of CME futures, and the longer rising trendline is around 4k. Could get oversold around 2k before the real uptrend resumes, but there will be lots of false dawns first, and would not be surprised to see 9k again before the final bottom.
Maybe a 10% chance of total failure, and that will get priced in, but hardly worth considering atm. Having said that, I think trading and shorting is very risky, but just my opinion fwiw.
72.
Post 39816912 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.57h):
Wow bitcoin is way up in the thousands per. That's amazing after just a few short years. Long way to go yet, but we're getting there
Thanks for the reminder.
Isn't it fantastic ! Its doesn't seem so long ago that the predictors of $5000 were considered utterly wacko crazy, even by committed bulls..
73.
Post 39819912 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.57h):
what an ugly correction.
nevertheless im still bullish and bought some more
next buy slightly above 5500. considering 60xx order as well
Why are you bullish?
We are going down for almost 6 straight months now ...
it all depends on ones trading style. for me when it drops, its the best time to buy in.
besides you can get more bitcoins when its cheaper
I try to stick to only buying rising markets.
BTC has been in a bear trend for 5 months, and it is always true , of any price, security, commodity whatever, that the 'current trend' is much more likely to continue than to reverse. Safest to buy in a long, strong uptrend.
BTC makes it really easy to follow this strategy, because the swing from low to high is so large. It doesnt matter if you miss the first double-up from the bottom : better than buying into the middle of an 85% fall.
74.
Post 39821833 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.57h):
sell huge amount of investment at less than 50% of ATH on the eve of the technology being adopted worldwide
Not such a bad move. Worldwide adoption will not stop the price halving again. 1BTC will still be 1BTC.
Shake out the weak holders at $3k or slightly below, and there will be a solid floor. It is only falling now because there is not a good base : still too many hopeful speculators.
1 year ago I thought $3k was a fantastically high price, hardly dared believe it would get above that in 2017.
75.
Post 39942638 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.58h):
I don’t see us reaching the depths of $3,000 BUT if we do every single one of you should buy at least another 10 bitcoin’s. Remortgage your house, empty your savings, beg, steal, borrow, whatever.
If you get the chance to load up again or even get your first bitcoin’s just do it because we all know bitcoin will have at least another couple of epic bull runs.
I predict $50,000 in late 2020 - mid 2021.
Do you want to miss out on that?
Does that qualify as financial advice because if it does its shit.
Anyone that puts all their worth into one of the most volatile assets on the planet is nothing but a gambling retard. You might as well walk into a casino and stick the lot on black.
Load up with as much cash as you can afford to lose.
Dead right. BTC is still a gambling asset. Maybe it always will be.
Yes, there is a chance it will become a global currency / store of value , but the other 3 scenarios are :
1. Failure of the blockchain in some way.
2. Always remaining a gambling chip.
3. Be displaced by another Digital Currency/ DLT Asset.
The current bear market has a long way to run. My own guess is there is a 50% chance of it ever acheiving $20k, and then maybe not until 2020 at earliest.
It is worth keeping a % of portfolio assets in BTC (like gold, as advisers will tell you, up to 10%).
76.
Post 39944895 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.58h):
My own guess is there is a 50% chance of it ever acheiving $20k, and then maybe not until 2020 at earliest.
You realize that statements like these are really conservative, and very long term bearish about bitcoin... which causes me to conclude that you have some lack of appreciation for bitcoin's potential upside.
I do agree with you that the higher the expected future price, the lower the probability that it is going to happen, but it seems to me that when you use words like "ever" in your prediction, you are attempting to predict too many legs in a chain of future events that you have to be nearly completely speculating about since it is nearly impossible to accurately predict more than a few legs into the future at a time... and the further out you go the more any prediction is going to be based on a lot of factors currently unknown.
Hopefully your bearishness is not rubbing too much off into me...
I entirely agree with you !
50% is the probability I am assigning. 'Ever' is not a prediction, just a part of one of the possibilities.
Of course, I omitted to say that another scenario (part of the other 50% if you like), is that $100k is achieved before 2022.
All these numbers and time frames are speculation, yes, and subject to evolving circumstance. That is what this thread is for.
Hopefully I can present ideas that give others food for thought, and also prevent ppl from making errors in trading by being too myopic. My apparent bearishness is only a comparitive with general bullishness, and the greatest mistake IMO would be too become too mentally committed to a bullish outlook (and thus disillusionment) when we are merely in a long bear market, which will eventually turn round.
Low predictions of $2-3k are merely realistic scenarios, and are helping to avoid the mental pain of HODling in a downtrand.
77.
Post 40087155 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.58h):
entry point from 5000/6000 for push to 19000 was always institutional investors
The game they played back down to 6000 (got caught out with some pump) back down again and now their last ditch effort to drop the price as low as possible for their friends
We the adopters can now dump on institutional investors
Thats similar to the way I see it, but my price points are a little different.
It is obvious that the peak of $19k coincided with the opening of CME and CBOT futures, very obvious even at the time.
In Sep 2017, Jamie Dimon made his famous, ham-fisted attack, and caused a brief blip to $2500, providing a solid floor. The price quickly rebounded to over $3000, and the Futures listings were announced soon after that. The run up from $3500 to $19000 took a mere 10 weeks, and that is the froth that needs to be cleared before a new bull phase has a chance to begin.
Those are the support levels I have quoted in my posts, and the faster the price gets there the better. Problem is it seems like its playing out into a long slow bear market, which at this rate, will take a year or two to bottom.
78.
Post 40087545 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.58h):
Good morning Bitcoinland.
Would you look at that... the price dips back to where it was yesterday and people are running around like chickens with their heads cut off calling for $3k.
Meanwhile we're well ahead of where we were in November, barely half a year ago... currently $6789USD/$88116CAD (Bitcoinaverage).
It wasn't much more than a year ago when gold ounce parity was the holy grail. Now a bitcoin is still worth over a quarter pound of the shiny stuff used to electroplate contacts.
Give your heads a shake.
They need to see the bigger picture
Agree. However, I think many posters are short term traders, and trying to guess the next few weeks moves (or even days).
79.
Post 40088038 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.58h):
The log trend lines will hold above $4k. Those have never broken.
If the 4k were to break (decisively) , would that be a sell signal ?
80.
Post 40090034 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.58h):
The log trend lines will hold above $4k. Those have never broken.
If the 4k were to break (decisively) , would that be a sell signal ?
It would mean the exponential trend is over. Read what you will in those tea leaves.
Fair enough. I am not using the chart that way, but rather trying to determine objective support levels. My assumption is that the long trend is in place until my support levels are broken. Those levels I have stated (with reasons) in the previous posts.
There are many ways to look at this.
81.
Post 40265007 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.58h):
He's known for being an uber-bull, but he hasn't been discredited yet.
TLDR: logarithmic trend isn't broken unless we fall below ~$3,200.
Edit: ECB, you're thinking of an old timer. There was a Parabolic Chad or something like that. Parabolic Trav was inspired by him, and took up the mantle when "Chad" disappeared.
That is not an unreasonable hypothesis. However, the current downtrend ending right now looks a little over-optimistic: It is very short compared with the overall time spacing.
+ a few more months would fit a little better. If the chart is to be validated, taking this as a short wave, expect a resuming uptrend before the end of 2018. If the present trend is turning into a long bowl formation, then a low of =/- $3k, and a return to ath by 2021 still keeps the log trend intact.
82.
Post 40291854 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.58h):
+ a few more months would fit a little better. If the chart is to be validated, taking this as a short wave, expect a resuming uptrend before the end of 2018. If the present trend is turning into a long bowl formation, then a low of =/- $3k, and a return to ath by 2021 still keeps the log trend intact.
You are catastrophe announcer. FFS!
3k! Omg I would have to buy more!
No. Just a balanced view. In fact my post was bullish, as I was not mentioning the third case scenario.
83.
Post 40648689 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.59h):
Don't feel too bad about having anything written by anonymint going over your head. That guy is in a league of his own. Usually, just to get a dim inkling of understanding any of his posts requires many hours of research. However, if you do make the attempt to try and decipher his message, it usually leads to a much deeper understanding of how BTC actually works.
Well, the problem with Anonymint is that he starts from some small set of presumptions and then extrapolates one dictionary length from there, so if he gets any of the basis wrong, a lot of the rest is going to be totally out there. The whole "knowledge age" thing for instance. All it takes is a rudimentary understanding of the works of people like Joseph Tainter to know the odds of a dark ages collapse is VASTLY higher or even inevitable than any kind of knowledge age.
There are diminishing returns to complexity of systems, and it's definitely possible to overshoot in terms of what is tenable by the finite human mind. Take the tax and legal system for instance, they both just snowball out of control in complexity until they become totally useless and have to be scrapped entirely. Civilization does not go upwards at a 45 degree angle on a chart increasing in complexity infinitely, and it's not possible for bitcoin to do so either. You always have a few steps forward and a few back, and sometimes you get much more steps back than forward, which is a dark ages on the micro view.
There is no guarantee of making it back to where you were either. Regardless, the dark ages are a necessary evolutionary process in all systems to cleanse it of the overly complex, irrational, or inefficient. As anyone can see, there's a whole lot of all three of these things in the world right now.
That is a good insight, and reflects the way I view things as well.
Whilst having faith in a long term proposition (ie global adoption of BTC etc ) it is important to consider the alternative probabilities, as well as understanding the nature of the long setbacks which may be part of the process.
84.
Post 40716946 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.59h):
By the end of July we shall see price above $10k.
Not going to happen.
Just as likely to see price at 2k.
Random move, 4k up or 4k down. No analysis.
85.
Post 40763656 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.59h):
By the end of July we shall see price above $10k.
Not going to happen.
Just as likely to see price at 2k.
Random move, 4k up or 4k down. No analysis.
That is not how it works. We use log scale not linear scale. A probability of the price being 5/3 as high as it is now is supposed to be as probable as a fall to 3/5 of what it is now. So a rise to ~10k should be equivalent to a fall to ~3600, not 2K.
Thanks .... I stand corrected. Principle is similar. 3600 is as unlikely as 10k .
Here's another bit of dumb-ass maths:
80% probability that a trading range of 5k to 7k holds until end July.
These figures are merely based on the historical volatilty extrapolated into the future, but they work well in all markets, regardless of how exotic the instrument. Of course the 20% probabilty happens 1 time in 5.
The only reason I quote them is to shine a little realism onto wilder predictions. I really have no idea where price is going in the next 2 months.
86.
Post 40788731 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.59h):
This shit is headed towards 4k and possibly under $3k.
Next 2 years will be very painful.
We have all done it before and we can all do it again.
Yep. Thats right.
The 2-3 year bear market was set up by December's extraordinary peak (could have topped out at 6-8k by my own estimates, but the CME futures news shot it to the moon). The grind down is needed to wash out the extreme speculation... Before a new uptrend is truly in place, the last 6-9 months' wild speculative buyers need to be whittled down to true hodlers, unaffected by the price moves.
That could take take 2 years and $2.5k price in my stupid-assed opinion.
Hope I'm wrong.
87.
Post 40795897 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.59h):
2 years like this means BYE BYE BTC
Why ?
88.
Post 40823963 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.59h):
There was a 94% decline in 2011. So we may still fall to around $1000.
yup
started mining btc in 2011 when it was like $5 USD. watched it go to around $35 USD. then drop for a long time to around $2.50 USD. then back up. then back down. then back up. then...
rode it out then, ill ride it out now. moon or bust i figure. anything in between is for cowards.
Understood. The decline in 2014-15 was only 80%.
I know many hodlers from 2011 sold huge amounts at $200 in 2013. $1000 seemed like moon to them then, and would be a healthy correction now.
I don't think it will get that low myself, but can certainly see $2k-2.5k being very possible. The number of traders, hopers and buyers on the way down will limit the pace of the decline, so plenty of time to get out now, and plenty of time to get back in. I wouldn't wait for $2k, because that might be very brief, but buying back at $3k gives some opportunity for profit on a 1-2 year view.
Personally, I'm not brave enough to short it, because nothing is certain.
89.
Post 40860334 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.59h):
[ I don't think it will get that low myself, but can certainly see $2k-2.5k being very possible. The number of traders, hopers and buyers on the way down will limit the pace of the decline, so plenty of time to get out now, and plenty of time to get back in. I wouldn't wait for $2k, because that might be very brief, but buying back at $3k gives some opportunity for profit on a 1-2 year view.
Personally, I'm not brave enough to short it, because nothing is certain.]
I agree with what you are writing here, except for your seeming attempt to get peeps to sell now (persuade? or protect? of course, you would assert that you are attempting to "protect" poor little naive BTC HODLers) and asserting that there is "plenty of time to get back in."
Well, yes I suppose that might be right: not quite sure what you are looking for there. Protecting people from their own folly is a fools errand. Using a bit of introspection, I guess what I mean to say is :
' OK, I think it is probably going to 3k or less... You can sell if you like, but I am not going to, because
1. Bull trend will probably resume in 2 years or less.
2. Having got out it is harder to get back in.
3. The profit of getting it right is too low compared with the high cost of getting it wrong. '
90.
Post 40860930 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.59h):
^ What is that arbitrary yellow line on the bottom.
This correction will not be like 2013 or 2014. Why? Because it's 2018. The rise was different, the correction will be different too. Its easy to try to trace and outline the future using the past, but its just an exercise for fun. Its relatively useless.
My best guess is this correction will be a somewhere in the middle of the two based on severity (%) dip, but will last longer than both. But even if my best guess is wrong, I will be right about one thing - this correction will be its own animal.
Good logic. Feels about right to me.
The bad news is the length of time of the correction : The good news is that most of the price fall from ATH has already happened. If we holdled in a 13k price fall, then another ~3k is easy, no ?
( or 2k or 4k , meh)
91.
Post 41305253 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.00h):
On this comparison, either the low is coming sooner, which is good for the long term, or we are imminent for a strong multi-month rally (maybe to ~$9k) followed by new lows below $4k.
Unless the decline is greater, which seems unlikely.
The comparison may not be valid, but it is one way of looking at the trend.
92.
Post 41801758 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.00h):
the trend is down until it isn't
Spoken wisely
The wisdom in that simple statement is profound.
To translate a little of it ' Nearly all TA is just a lot of hot air, but it helps to pass the time while waiting for the trend to turn'
93.
Post 41953129 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.00h):
Good morning Bitcoinland.
I see we had a bit of a dip, all the way down to where we were over a week ago...$6393USD/$8390CAD (Bitcoinaverage).
Why does this always seem (lately) to happen when I'm short on cash to buy more coins?
I can't bitch though. It's only money and I'm not impoverished quite yet.
maybe it doesn't go down to 3xxx levels after all
That 3xxx nonsense is just wishful thinking by people who missed the boat (or panic sold at the bottom) and desperately want the price to go down.
That 3xxx nonsense is something that you just can't dismiss outright. Sure we all want the price to go over the moon. Possibly even higher. But there's no denying we're in a strong bear market right now. There's every chance that it will go down.
Given 2014/15, there is a historical precedent. I just hope if we are going that low, it's faster this time - grinding down and only hitting bottom in early 2019 would be tough.
Sooner, please.
Agreed. A sharp move down ( hopefully in the next couple of months) would be a good way to end this bear market. If it's sharp enough, I think it might bottom at 3.5-4k, but as you say, it's the slow grind down that is going to be worse, and get lower.
In stock trading parlance, we are on the 'slope of hope'. It can be a long one.
94.
Post 43053158 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.03h):
Odds seem against three years, and odds seem against 3 months, too, but seems that each are within a similar probabilities range.
Absolutely... 3 months to 3 years is a wide range: just a bell curve of probabilty .
So maybe from what seems really hard to forecast, and those range defining guesses, we can estimate a period of ~18 months between 5k and 10k ?
Can you live with that ? I am guessing that most ppl find it difficult to accept, and they might be at risk of overtrading through boredom.
95.
Post 43384233 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.03h):
I just noticed the poll is outdated. I guess everyone is too depressed to care.
I guessed 7k-7.5k, not bad. No depression round here, just waiting for the ball to stop bouncing and find a decisive bottom. (or have we?)
I think we haven't seen bottom yet but I'd be pleasantly surprised if we never see 5k again.
It's a long game. My own best guess is the bottom comes in at $3k in 2019, but I would also be pleasantly surprised if it is higher.
I notice my own reactions this year are the same as in 2014, and I followed that far too closely.
By the time the bear market was over, many alts were down 99%, and BTC was a strong relative performer at -80%.
Of course I hope that each rally will be the beginning of the new uptrend, but hope and reality don't often match.
96.
Post 43507498 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.03h):
With these super low prices we may need to shut down the blockchain.
Fortunately they released Satoshi's alert key.
Time to trigger the shutdown switch? Or might things turn around?
I'm scared.
Help.
Relax. The prices are still good. Rewind one year and $6000 seemed like moon. Charts mean little, because they can be interpreted any way you wish. I can feel the replay of 2014-15 in all the emotions, remembering clearly the daily twists and turns, and it is tracking closely.
Don't get scared until sub $3000. The bounce will be good, it just isn't near yet.
Alternatively don't watch for a year or so, it will be easier on your stress levels.
97.
Post 43511756 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.03h):
Rewind one year and $6000 seemed like moon.
Just don't rewind 6 months ago. Make sure to cherry pick the right timeline.
Don't get scared until sub $3000.
$3000 is nonsense. Pass it on.
It is even more optimistic to rewind 18 months (to $1000), and the uptrend is still showing as very strong. In fact take any price point more than 10 months ago. My point is that the price can come back to sub $3000 without breaking the long term uptrend.
Looking back to the peak price is too discouraging.
98.
Post 43547831 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.03h):
That´s a bit easy isn't it?
Since bitcoin basically startet at 0 USD you can pick any number and see it as an uptrend.
Pick 5 USD for instance. If we move down to 5 USD tomorrow going from bitcoins inception we probably doubled each year.
So, the basic question again : Is BTC in an uptrend or a downtrend ?
Answer is simple : Medium term (year or two) Downtrend
Longterm : Uptrend. Support line here (open to interpretation) is around $2-3k
Trends *always* continue until the relevant support/resistance line is broken .
Probably any other analysis becomes over-complicated, unless you want to trade frequently, which is usually a sure way to lose.
99.
Post 43680244 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
we going to 3 k boys?
Not anytime soon. Any drop below 6k would find its own support (maybe 4800 but thats only a guess). Then another rally into October.
The key then is where does the rally fail. Any top below 8000 would still be bearish as the recent rally failed at 8500.
If, if we get to 3k, it's more likely to be around middle of 2019.
100.
Post 43680262 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
we going to 3 k boys?
4850
That would be a better place for a bounce. Trading is risky, but there would be a fair chance of a good profit from buying around 4500, looking at a 3/4 month view.
101.
Post 43799957 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
This chart seems to suggest the bottom will be reached (around 70% lower from here = $1500) in mid 2019. That would not be good news.
I am inclined to agree with the timing, but I think (hope!) the price will not get below $2500
102.
Post 43815674 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
It seems to me that we gotta get above $10k anyhow before we get too confident that the bottom(s) (however many there have been so far) are "in."
Part of my thinking remains that unless we get above $10k and stay there for a while, we still remain in close striking distance of our current local bottom(s)(again however many there are), and we cannot really rest with comfort while BTC prices are in such close bottom(s) proximity.
By the way, maybe I am wrong about $10k and maybe the safe price point is at a different amount? I am just using that $10k as an approximate tentative place, at the moment, in my current thinking.
Good analysis, in my view.
The market will tell us where it is going, ultimately. We can make scenarios and conjectures. Using the terms if/then/but for alternatives is important.
10k would certainly improve the odds that the bottom was in. Looking at the time scales of the down wave (I would rather call this a bear market) you can see it is unlikely we can form an bullish opinion for some months (10k is going to take a bit of work to get to).
With price sitting near lows, a bearish opinion could be quicker to get to (if 5.8k is broken decisively).
I look at the price action with decades of chart/trend watching experience , and those are the sort of reasons for me to say on balance, we are still in a bear market. A base, and bull trend will take time and market 'effort' to form. Current price action could be forming a bottom, but its too early to say. All the previous lows of major BTC bear trends have been short lived (spike bottoms), and that doesn't bode well here.
103.
Post 43944561 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
This is what worries me (apart of lack of humor or differences in humor perception): redditers are still bullish, very bullish.. too bullish. And not only redditers, but here in BCT too - no despair traces are visible en masse. No despair - no trend reversal, and I wonder how long this market can drop until people finally panic. I understand it is hard to shake out old Bitcoiners, but the new entrants should have already started to capitulate. But nope - even those who think Bitcoin will drop further, are setting 3K target, and expect moon then (in ~2 years). This particularly should mean the 3K bottom is to never happen - as too much people expect it. Bitcoin should either bounce noticeably higher or noticeably lower. Given the absence of despair now, I start to think it could go lower... which is highly undesirable scenario as I see it, as it will punch through weekly MA200 then, and also its will be disaster for miners and many crypto businesses.
But I am not really social media aware guy, and I may easily miss something. So... a question: did anyone see traces of
mass panic in social media, enough to call it a mass sentiment..?
P.S. Please don't call me FUDder. Yes, I am not a bull now, and I miss TERA2 here, but I am just expressing my own concern, and will be genuinely interested in what people here think of this.
I agree with your analysis. From what I see around many, many different sources ( offline as well as online), there is a majority of bullishness.
Lots of price rise forecasts, mostly predicated on hope alone. Lots of anger directed at bearish forecasts.
Unfortunately then, price is stiil flowing down the river of hope, and it could take a long time and a big decline to change that.
I wish it wasn't so.
104.
Post 43945190 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
There's doesn't need to be "mass panic". That's not a necessary requirement to determine whether the bottom has happened.
Mass panic selloff - despair - indifference - the time of low interest by general public, and active work by the core supporters -- then natural growth from inside, caused by the persistent work of real value creators, such as developers, adopters and promoters.
I believe before BTC can grow again, there should be new achievements to show, and more healthy community caring about fundamentals, not just price.
This is how I see normal way of resolving the consequences of the latest bubble.
I wonder how do you see the possible path? Do you really think BTC is ready for another rally in this situation now? Or you think it can go sideways long enough so new development matures and adoption kicks in?
IMO BTC is headed for another rally, maybe from a lower level (perhaps 5k) which will reach around 7.5k by October and fail. The subsequent fall may get to 4k, but in best case could get to 3k, in which case you could call it 'Mass Panic' , and the low could be 'in'.
The worse case would be another low around 4k followed by a rally to near 6k (by February ??) and a continued fall after that, with another year of bear market from here.
As far as Development and Adoption goes, that will continue whilst price falls, and even better when a more stable low level is reached.. Ironically, there is less proper development in a strong bull phase, because everyone is distracted by easy money.
105.
Post 43946321 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
No despair - no trend reversal
Science. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
/sarc off .. Agree
In fact, responding to both your posts, I would say it's true that most ppl overthink this trading analysis... and they lose.
Just finding one or two very simple (seemingly over-simple) yet powerful drivers, and seeing price through those prisms, has a better chance of success.
106.
Post 43947001 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
1. I really cant make sense of any of this?
2. If you can afford to wait then just Buy and HODL. Its worked out fine so far.
1. Most ppl can't get their head round it. It needs too much experience and analysis. The market moves in waves : each wave sets up the preconditions for the next.
2. That is the best simple advice.
and 3. See my post just above, re keeping it simple.
edit :
I just realised that worth adding a note on contrarian logic, for those that dont know :
Bull markets climb a 'Wall of Worry'
Bear markets flow down a 'River of Hope'
Thus sentiment is a contrary indicator. The majority of sentiment does not change overnight, and a lot of 'work' is need to be done by time and price, before the herd changes its mind.
107.
Post 43961411 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
1818 is a ridiculously high number.
The world definitely doesn't need this amount of worthless and useless coin.
Shitcoiners,
you don't 51% attack Bitcoin,
Bitcoin will 51% you
Yep.
If there were 1818 so called "precious metals" in the world, investors/savers would all gravitate to Gold and regard all the rest simply as "fool's gold".
I guess that will happen eventually.
Silver and a few other metals are used as stores of value, plus there are numerous other commodies and collectables etc which perform this function to a limited extent. There could be quite a number of Cryptos that survive long term (but not anywhere near 1818). In the meantime we are in an evolutionary lifeform/species explosion, which is needed to give natural selection a large choice for the eventual extinction.
108.
Post 43974566 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
I agree with the capitulation thing. The last down cycle we sat near $200-$300 for nearly a year. I figure that shook out a lot of people from 2013 that were just waiting for it to "go back up so they could sell.
I held all the way through 2010 to 2012 only to cave at the end of 2012 as it was starting to come back up. As a n00b those were some tough times. But I believed in Bitcoin. Most people who got in last year are about as Bitcoin savvy as the people in Vegas at the Evolve conference.
Same as a lot of ppl, maybe you were afraid of losing the bit that was left.
That was a valuable lesson. Vastly more ppl will learn that lesson in the coming year IMO. When only the die hards are left (they don't care how low the price goes) then the new uptrend can slowly begin.
BTC going to $2k ? doesn't matter. $1k ? feel the same. It's just a number, and the price will go wherever it needs to go.
109.
Post 44227912 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.05h):
maybe there is a declining trend in % dropped.
From about 90% (real number was 93-94%)
to about 80% (about 86% to be exact)
to?
94-86-78?
78% from 19783 is about $4350 (not predicting it because it could be 72-80).
That is one way of putting it. Seems reasonable and hopeful.
On that basis the bottom for this bear market should come in around $4k.
110.
Post 44229092 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.05h):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMQX3l7OYYo&feature=youtu.beLosing Money Without Losing Your Edge | Peter Brandt Mental Game of Trading
Peter explains some of the common mental pitfalls that can commonly affect traders. He explains how to deal with painful drawdowns, opens up about his own worst losing period, and reveals what it took for him to get back into the black.
Hes had drawdowns as much as 37%. AHAHAHA amateur
. I draw down 37% on a good day!
Yep. 37% is a joke. BTC'ers hodled thru -90% , twice. Some alt holders hodled thru -98% and one or two even came good after that!
111.
Post 45557361 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.07h):
The alt coins must unravel before btc can go up. My prediction is we see dominance climb above 80%.
80%? That's a bold prediction. I'd say 70% will be quite maxxed, after it reaches the peak it will drop drastically, ergo fuelling the next (maybe the last) altcoin run. But after the next run most of the shitcoins will fade into history, as they should. Then daddy takes over for good with some kiddies running around. But you never know if and how they will grow up.
There may possibly not be another altcoin run (just some failed rallies). It has been my view since Feb that we are in a bear market frame, and it would be unusual for that not to last at least a year or two.
There is still lots of hope around, and price likes to flow down that river.
Of course nobody can make clear predictions, but the logic seems to be that this is an altcoin extinction event, and the next bull phase will involve the main survivors. The large number of surviving zombie coins is diluting scarce buying power.
Until the mass extinction is well under way (and that means getting down to only a few hundred alts) , it is unlikely that a proper bottom can be formed. ( just my own guess)
I would be a buyer of just the strongest projects (maybe only BTC) when we get to less than 400 tokens/coins showing some trade on coinmarketcap.
112.
Post 45557439 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.07h):
^
That’s One of the things everybody has already had ,a catching falling knives experience.... and if not or When your new .... everyone Will keep doing This kind of things till they get burned , its all included in the crypto learning Manuel
Yes. Impossible to predict the long term price moves, only the market can show you. Better to miss the first 25% of a bull market, than to lose a large indeterminate chunk (could easily be 75% or more) of your capital.
Unfortunately, it is natural to be impatient for action, so those losses are the norm.
113.
Post 45802290 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.07h):
Largely, I agree that currently we are not in a crypto winter.
Is that because things don't look gloomy enough ? (yet) .. or because it won't happen ?
How long at these levels or lower, before the CryptoWinter definition is met ?
I am not trying to be pessimistic here, because it is important to be open to all possibilities.
Maybe you could say that, by the time the Crypto Winter is easily visible, we will have been in it long enough for it to be over !
114.
Post 45816837 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.07h):
These so far unsuccessful about 5 attempts to break below $6k don't necessarily play well for the bear case, but they do not come anywhere close to guaranteeing a bullish scenario either, because for me to feel comfortable and out of the woods, then BTC price is going to have to return comfortably into the area in which it is testing $10k resistance and even perhaps breaking through such resistance - even if such breaking through is NOT sustained, I might become a bit more comfortable that the bottom is already in, and that our current crypto winter (baby winter) is NOT going to be as bad as the 2014-2015 crypto winter (arguably dragging into 2016).
I like your analysis generally.
Most posters, as you point out, come out with proclamations based on either nothing, or misread/false facts.
Given that nobody has a crystal ball, it takes a bit of skill and experience to express a cogent scenario. Making cases for alternative price moves is nearly always the best way.
'Baby Winter' : could be possible, and it helps the case for the bottom being already in. If its a full Winter, then a bottom in the 2-3k range is more possible. I hate the idea of that, but the market often makes us take the worst tasting medicine.
Whichever way, it will be a long climb out, and patience is needed.
115.
Post 45864152 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.07h):
Crypto, on the other hand is liquid in electronic markets. A far higher portion of the coin supply is traded in the sense of possession remaining with ownership. This puts cash-settled markets at a disadvantage because they are "outside the loop"in a way that they aren't with gold.
How is this Possible ?It basically comes down to the feature widely known as "public-private key cryptology". If we superimpose the model of bitcoin on gold, both public and private keys are co-incident. That means we need custodial services because gold hodlers cannot allow the metal to leave their posession and still retain control over it.
With public-private key cryptology, a cryptographic asset can be allowed to sit "out there" while retaining mobility, resistance to counterfeit
and be under the control of the owner. That is the huge advantage in value that Bitcoin has as a monetary asset over precious metals. It's also the property that gives it far greater resistance to the kind of manipulation from derivatives markets that we see in PM'S.
This is the key to the attractiveness of digital currency. The downside is that an owner has to take responsibility for their own security.
With a custodial service, there is an insurance/assurance that the registered owner cannot have the asset stolen, without compensation from the custodian. Disenfranchisement can only come from the contract terms, or failure of the custodian.
116.
Post 46020930 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
I am in a generous mood today. I have decided that shitcoins are a good thing because they get people interested in crypto and eventually those people figure out the importance of decentralised, immutable ledgers (the smart ones anyway). And that is enough.
I have always believed that is the case.
The speculative frenzy of alts has drawn in huge numbers of people looking for quick profit, but it has also pushed them to learn a bit about the tech.
As the BTC dominance increases, many will rotate back into BTC as a safe haven.
In the end , there will be far more BTC hodlers than if alts had never existed.
117.
Post 46021073 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
I suspect there will be more before this run is over. But it would be hard to surpass the last $7,4xx top.
Top at 6.8 or 7.4 has less meaning... The key is what happens on the next dip. Where is the low, and how well is it rejected ?
If the low comes in around 6k that suggests we are stuck in the same range. Above 6300 is good. A bounce from there to 7k+ even better.
If below 5.8k, then a new bear leg is likely. Hunker down for another year of winter.
118.
Post 46092975 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
6920 then 5200 then 6500 then capitulation around 3K in january 2019
Just about possible, but timeframe looks wrong for that. IF we are going to $3k (hopefully not) , then it will take longer. The market may be too mature for that type of volatility.
A stall in the 5k to 7k range for another 6 months, then a slow roller-coaster climb to 12k in 2020 is perhaps more realistic. 100% ROI in 15 months is pretty good.
Ultimately, with the numbers of large alts now becoming more globally viable, it is worth considering the possiblilty that BTC has seen its ATH already.
Even some of the more optimistic predictions back in 2013 had 10k as the final target, and a steady decrease in volatility as that price approached.
119.
Post 46093079 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
I am neither a bear nor a bull but wish to arrive at a realistic likelihood of various outcomes. ....
There are 3 main ways to view the future.
1. BTC will aways be the leading digital money, increase dominance, and large returns are still possible.
2. Technical failure or crippling of some sort (low probabilty, but still possible)
3. Another crypocurrecy ascends to dominance.
I would put odds of perhaps 10% on #2, and 45% on each of #1 and 3.
Price targets for 2021 for :
#1 30k
#2 sub-1k
#3 8k
Conclusion... good odds of positive ROI from current level.
120.
Post 46093152 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
Just about possible, but timeframe looks wrong for that. IF we are going to $3k (hopefully not) ,
oh JESUS ! we are not going to 3k ok?
(there ya go... now my son will take care of it...)
I don't believe so either, but nobody can be certain. I believe that price volatility has continued to decline, and therefore it is a reasonable assumption that 5k may have marked the bottom.
On a positive note, a fall to 3k in 4 months would indicate volatility is still very high, and therefore there is a lot more adoption to come : ie. much higher future prices.
121.
Post 46103033 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
I would put odds of perhaps 10% on #2, and 45% on each of #1 and 3.
...
I am not sure whether I should have read ahead before I made my earlier (more pissed off responsive post), and these are very decent points and probability assignments, Majormax... except the I am neither a bull or a bear... comes off as too detached.
Thanks for the detailed responses !
So we agree on the 10% probabilty (without collusion) !
It is axiomatic that forecasting price movements is difficult, and its tempting to just give up on the calculations and guess, or say 'nobody knows'. However, we have to have a stab at it somehow.
We all have our own methods of forecasting. Many posters seem to me to quote some random number for future price, without any indication of how they came up with it. Some post charts, some use a form of (very valid) psycho analysis (JJG being one of the best exponents of that !) delving into the biases and the misconceptions of others. Akin to the Contrarian approach, which has a good track record.
I have had a career and made a living in trading. My stance is this :
Every future price outcome has a probability of some sort.... maybe some sort of bell curve. The regularity of a simple bell curve denies all forecasts. Without a real edge, large numbers of trades can only break-even , the market-makers/brokers spread becomes the aggregate loss. It becomes simply a market-makers tool for , say, derivatives pricing.
If you can break the curve down into groups/blocks, and analyze each one individually from some other, different perspective, you may be able to diminish or enhance the likelihood of one part, which then gives a meaningful edge of sorts.
122.
Post 46420839 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
I love how you all still have hope. It's refreshing.
I'd hope it all works out for you, but, well...
The next peak is $180,000 in December 2021. But the next 12 months are going to be boring and depressing as batshit, with occasional moments of sheer terror.
Make your plans accordingly. I suggest deep cold storage. Put it under a concrete slab if necessary.
So you and wekkel are not voting option 4 in here
https://twitter.com/fundstrat/status/1046457776753573890?s=21If we follow the pattern of 2014 / 5, it will bottom between January and September of next year. Except probably a bit sooner because all the traders will be trying to front run the pattern. You just don’t want to make your run too early so they will want some confirmation before entering.
Spot on IMO. Of course , chart patterns don't repeat precisely, but this long term cycle is very, very clear to anyone who wishes to see it.
Confirmation before trading take a lot of patience when you are looking at this timescale.
I would say its possible that there will be be another downleg into 2019, but there is also a chance that the low is already in, and the next year or so is just going to be a boring sideways action, with a bit of chop-chop to skim the frequent traders.
123.
Post 46458286 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
Still, (I think) Bitcoin was not meant as a way to evade tax or capital controls but to be your own bank by having direct control of your money.
BTC might initially have had those former uses, but is steadily moving away from its experimental past, and that is a very big positive.
Regulations treating BTC as a mainstream asset, including AML and institutional KYC, are already essential at the fiat interface, but the treatment of transfers in crypto alone are a different question.
On one level, regulations about crypto transfers are defacto recognising it offically as money. That may not be a route that monetary authorities want to go down at present.
In most juristictions, all valuable assets are required to be registered in some way,and that usually is a positve in terms of ownership law and security. If BTC is outside that system it will always have a deficiency in terms of adoption and mainstream recognition.
I would envisage BTC and some other cryptos eventually coming within all of that, with most others remaining in the grey zone ,with the concomitant freedoms and also drawbacks of that status.
Surely the primary facet of cryptos (and the one for which BTC was born) is to provide a parallel monetary store and exchange system, as a refuge from the eventual insolvency of the current fiat regime ?
Over the long term, the free market should decide whether that is a worthy, recognised or necessary function.
124.
Post 46521105 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
Three months? That's depressing 😟
Better than rabies I guess!
More depressing if we don't hold this level through January, which is the alternative implied by Hairy. Then the bottom would, I agree , probably be in by September 2019, although it will be lower (not guessing exactly where). That will require a longer climb out of the trough.
If you look at the long term chart, it could be the case that the bowl formations at the bottom of bear markets are getting longer (that would also chime with a maturing market : less volatility). I would not like to think that a new ATH will take longer than it did in 2014-17, but it does remain a realistic possiblity. The 2 peaks of 2013 which may have seemed possible back in March have now been rendered all but unachievable by the time frame of the current range.
In order to withstand the grinding slowness of a long consolidation, may I suggest this optimistic way of looking at it :
The peak of Dec 2017 was in fact an overshoot, caused by the opening of Chicago Mainstream Futures contracts. But for this the high could have been where it was a year ago ie about 4-5k. The present position might fall back as low as 4k, but it will then be on solid ground, with the long rising trend intact.
125.
Post 46521226 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
On the whole my memory is terrible regarding specific dates & what the bitcoin price was at that time. I just looked on Stamp though to remind myself & between Jan 2015 & late October 2015 we were stuck going sideways in the $200 range (briefly dipping below $200 & briefly touching $300).
Basically I was looking for an idea of how long we could go sideways.
I wonder is the $6000 range similar before we start to move significantly upwards?
Hopefully, that maybe the case. That 200-300 range was only around double the last-but-one high. The 2nd 2013 low of 65 was also around double the last-but-one high.
The last-but-one high now is $1300. That gives credence to my 'overshoot' theory as well.
I would rather stay in 6k range for a lot longer, to consolidate, than risk a return to more volatility and possibly lower low. One of the biggest complaints about BTC last year was the extreme volatility. A stable and narrow range for a long time would clear that issue, whilst giving time for infrastructure to build out more.
126.
Post 46740835 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.09h):
Sideways is the NEW standard when we get bored of it ..... we Will see ATH’s again, when we get bored of them we Will see dump/crash/corrections again when we get bored again.... we Will go sideways again
Only it seems i’m getting bored faster @ the moment as many others, going to sleep too get bored tomorrow again
I'm preparing to be bored for the next year or two. Best way IMO.
You could always follow the stock market : that will be more exciting.
127.
Post 46750533 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.09h):
Guys, below 5800 will not fall. Relax.
Thanks for that.
128.
Post 46871471 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.09h):
BTC’s price will be: First column in 2-3 years Second column in 6-7 years
Below $1k = Less than 3% Less than 1.5%
$1k to $3k = 8% to 12% 7% to 9%
$3k to $5k = 10% to 15% 8% to 12%
$5k to $10k = 10% to 15% 8% to 12%
$10k to $19k = 15% to 18% 12% to 15%
$19k to $30k = 15% to 18% 15% to 18%
$30k to $50k = 15% to 18% 15% to 18%
$50k to $100k = 12% to 15% 15% to 18%
$100k to $500k = 5% to 10% 10% to 15%
$500k to $1mill = 2% to 4% 10% to 15%
More than $1mill = Less than 1% Less than 5%
...we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.
That is a fair way of putting it, and yes, I would broadly agree with those 'guesstimates'.
'upwardly skewed bellcurve' : I also like that term ! It can be termed bullish, even though there are very significant probabilities of loss in the next few years.
129.
Post 47814420 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.12h):
You can't really compare the two bear markets, because the timescales dont match, and the price movements are completely different.
If you do make a proper comparison, the 2014-5 market did not bottom until 18 months in: that would indicate a further downward leg in 2019. I don't think that will happen.
130.
Post 48065299 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.14h):
Are we literally going to $0
Most unlikely. Some alts are, of course.
This is merely a step in the bear market. At least it confirms which pattern we are in. The downtrend is still intact. I was certainly prepared for this, but it is still uncomfortable. The worst part is knowing that there may not be a recovery for a year or two.
There is long term support at $1500-$2000, but I would not expect it to get there before the middle of next year.
131.
Post 48065482 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.14h):
If this drops much further, I am going to have to concede that we are in a 2014 scenario rather than a 2013 scenario...
What ? You really still think the 2013 scenario is possible ?
I know we read the charts differently, but surely the 2014 was already confirmed by the length and shape of the downtrend ? This latest plunge just hammers it home.
I want to see a bounce, I hope for recovery soon, but the realist in me is hunkered down for a 3 year winter.
132.
Post 48065696 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.14h):
I think that CSW asshole shorted the market big time before engaging in the ridiculous war against Ver/Jihan. He always knew he couldn't win.
I hope so. That would mark a proper bottom (but be prepared for the plunge to intensify first). Shorts eventually have to be closed.
133.
Post 48066135 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.14h):
O.k. We read differently, and I don't concede that a previous pattern implies the next pattern either in duration nor in intensity... especially when the way up was different in this 2017 one, too. In other words, you cannot just begin from the downward point, you have to consider both the upwards slope that got to the top and the downward slope, not just one side of it.
All charts are hidsight of course. IMO their main usefulness is in telling us why/how a particular price move happened.
My own methodology starts with the premise that a Bear Market has a job to do. That job is to shake out the weak hands. The higher the previous rise, the harder the job will be ,hence the use of % retracements etc (which are flawed anyway).
How the weak hands are shaken out is a combination of circumstance. The BCH/SV debacle is merely one of those random circumstances : the fall was due anyway. In fact, better to get it over with, deep , sharp and quick. Slow attrition is harder to recover from.
In BTC terms this is not a crash. $2000 next week is a crash.
So I kind of agree with you, the jury is still out . They never really reach a verdict until its all over.
134.
Post 48156183 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.14h):
4000$ does not seem to hold for long.
BCH needs to bleed out first, then we can go up again.
If BCHABC & BCHSV would both die that’d be great yeah but the assholes running them have deep pockets
I think BCH hashwar is just a sideshow for BTC.
The way I see it, this Bear Market was destined to take its course. Trigger events seem to be causes but they are merely catalysts.
Looking at the long term chart, I still see exactly what I saw back in January. A high likelihood of a 2014-17 long bowl formation.
The first stage has to be reaching a bottom, it is is by no means certain we have done that yet, and it has only been 11 months since the ATH.
The good news is there is plenty of time to dribble in purchases (perhaps a monthly basis ?).
OCICBW, but better to see the realistic scenarios and plan for those primarily.
135.
Post 48199202 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.15h):
If this isn't capitulation, I dont know what is
...
Thousand dollar down 1 hour candle with massive volume.
Now its getting into the range I was guessing at back in January.
Assuming that BTC is going to survive as the dominant crypto (which I guess is axiomatic for everyone on WO thread) 3k must be near the low for this wave. If its 2k handle, then that is not such a long way off.
Any hodlers that can stand 3k , can stand 2k, they have been through the downwave. The tough bit now is going to be the long wait (and it will be long) before the next real upwave.
Was only a few weeks ago posters were declaring 6400 as the support. Now we would be fortunate to see that level again before the end of next year.
136.
Post 48211228 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.15h):
Going by that comparison, another year until we get above 4000 again, with a bit more downside first.
137.
Post 48237368 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.15h):
I think this uptrend is just temporary.
The next 10 days will be critical... it could crash again imho.
I think the last 12 hours have been a piss poor performance by the bulls.
Yes it is a very weak recovery, considering the speed of the downside.
That would indicate that the downtrend is still firmly in place. Maybe a new range 3500-4200 before a fresh low early next year ?
The only caveat is that it is really too early after the drop to make any even tentative pronouncements.
138.
Post 48360698 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.17h):
The bottom is not in.
This isn’t about price, it’s about time. We haven’t had enough time to digest the last bull market.
We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019. I can’t give you a price target because it’s not about price.
Very good thinking. Most ppl concentrate on price, and it is important to get away from the herd ideas.
If bottom is in early/mid 2019, that would put the next high around 2021-2. Hunker down is in order. Better to find something else to think about for a couple years !
139.
Post 48360919 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.17h):
Even if this possible scenario were to come true, wouldn't there be a way to profit from such scenario, rather than going away for "a couple of years"?
Wouldn't we want to attempt to buy more on the way down to the bottom in early to mid 2019? And of course, there might be other actions that can be taken, too.
Yes, thats the theory. Very few ppl would be able to successfully call the right timings and price. ..but good luck to anyone that goes for it.
Not tying to put ppl off, just pointing out that passive hodling is the safe strategy: you only have to make one correct call , and that is 'The price of BTC is still in a long term uptrend' (could just possibly be wrong, but the odds are at least in your favour).
The reality is that only a minority actually make much profit from trading, most is made from hodling.
140.
Post 48407068 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.17h):
Don't you think if the weekly candle closes around this level ($4K+) in a few hours that would be a bullish signal in itself?
Yes I do.
[...]
A reversal from here - a
real reversal - could be mean and with 'mean' I mean towards $8,000+
..or a continuation of the trend (statistically always most likely at any given time) , could be mean : towards $2000.
So take your guess... or provide some supporting evidence.
We may not have proper confirmation until 2020.
141.
Post 48407680 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.17h):
A solid piece, but why are we languishing at $4K, then?
From my perspective, bitcoin always does something least expected.
In the summer of 2017 I was afraid that a split would be very difficult to digest.
Instead, we moved from $1K almost straight to 20K.
I was expecting correction, but i wasn't "really" expecting a 83% plunge that is definitely NOT typical for $200 bil value assets, unless it is a commodity like sugar.
I expected smarter minds in finances (WS) picking up crypto because there is no other way out of the current economic predicament.
They got to realize this at some point.
However, lately, reading upon all horrible stories about environmental destruction (read on insect apocalypse, for example-it is all true as I have my own life observations confirming this OR testosterone levels reduction going on for several generations already), I start to think that maybe we, humans, set ourselves on some kind of a suicide path.
If that is the case, ignoring crypto (as a salvation) is EXACTLY what doomed societies are going to do.
Maybe a Great Filter (of Fermi's paradox fame) is not behind, but right in front of us.
Count me ( at the moment) as disappointed.
All good points.
Blockchain will certainly disrupt many industries, and therefore can be considered inevitably successful. However the value of Cryptocurrencies is a complicated matter.
Because Blockchain disintermediates agencies, and distributes much of their profits to the end user (who was ultimately paying), the opportunities for profit from Blockchain are relatively small.
Put another way, the profit from a decentralised system is difficult to centralise. It is by definition, distributed.
Cryptocurrency value is derived mainly from speculative activities, and is by no means assured into the future.
142.
Post 48408215 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.17h):
People that consider blockchain inevitably successful and consider cryptocurrencies doubtful simply don't know what they're talking about! They don't understand that a blockchain without built-in cryptocurrency is nonsense from economic point of view!
Well, yes, could be, but does it not depend on the purpose of the particular ledger ?
The actual future ROI in any one Blockchain project is what I was referring to.
143.
Post 48455305 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.18h):
2900$ is the last support that could very likely not hold, and should it not then we can easily go to 3 digits again.
I dont see support at 2900. But certainly above 1000. At 3 digits, BTC is failing as a project. Possible but unlikely.
I would estimate that $1500 needs to hold, and I expect it to do so, some time in late 2019.
144.
Post 48455329 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.18h):
Not sure if this was already posted, please don't kill the messenger as i don't agree with lots of these points.
However, this shows where institutional investors (aka hedgies) are on this.
https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1068573163670261760In short: institutionals are shell-shocked and bewildered.
My take home message: small size institutional money will not participate from now on.
TL;DR she predicts that, similarly to how internet happened, blockchain will eat the world, but somehow traditional players (Fidelity, Paypal, etc) would be the winners and we would be the losers.
I disagree, obviously.
There's a lot of negative predictions and news stories about Bitcoin around. IMO it's bullish and indicates we are close to the bottom.
There are also a lot of positive sentiments as well, so the bottom could be temporary.
This bear market needs a lot more time to play out (rather than price pronouncements)
145.
Post 48455370 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.18h):
Well, should probably go without saying, I rescind my offer of throwing a $100k party, if/when the milestone is achieved. If I've fucked up an intended good-faith beer offering in this thread so badly due to bad planning/foresight on my part or whatever, I have no business pondering more grandiose "events". Not to mention the considerable scorn I have accrued, bearing down upon me, is beginning to weigh heavily on me.
All my calls have turned out to be contrarian, looking back through the lens of retrospection.
I offer nothing of value to this thread.
I should just delete this account and get on with life in meatspace...
You are not serious ?
Come on, hang in here. It's tough, but your contribution is valued by many posters..
FWIW, over 5 years, I have seen a lot of posters reach this stage. Many recovered their mojo.
146.
Post 48477267 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.18h):
So looking at the last bubble we could go under 1k
I think $1200-1500 will hold.
Below 1k means something has gone seriously wrong, and would be a sell-out signal.
The next few months is a time of very high risk, with falling hashrate. Even a half-successful 51% attack would cause massive reuptational damage.
Assuming survival of BTC (likely), the next year or two is going to be tough, and many of todays posters will be gone.
I can only recommend Hodlers to write-off the value (for peace of mind), and find something else to occupy their thought processes.
147.
Post 48477296 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.18h):
Too lazy to post the graph right now. But the $2800 support level was reached the day the crypto market cap broke $100 Billion. Should be a very strong support if we get there, but dropping below it could trigger a further drop due to psychological horseshit and going back to sub $100 Billion market cap. Probably some discrepancy due to different altcoin prices and amounts, but the range seems roughly accurate given that everything is tethered to BTC.
Makes sense. True support levels can only be determined with reference to previous corrective (down) action on the way up.
148.
Post 48482594 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.18h):
Difficult to know what December 2018 and thereafter is going to bring in terms of BTC price performance, but I am having some doubts that in the short-term shorting BTC is going to be nearly as lucrative as it was in either 2014 or 2018... but what do I know?
The medium to long term price is relatively easy to predict... only shorter term is difficult.
However, atm the price is in a very steady downtrend, so expect more of the same. The only interruption will be the odd sharp rally over the next few months, but the trend is still down.
149.
Post 48482638 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.18h):
ETH now manfully engaged in the fight to become a double digit shitcoin.
Will it pull it off?
With aplomb.
Of course.. ETH can manage anything !
150.
Post 48488786 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.18h):
All commentators saying the same thing. This one is fully expecting capitulation level around $800=$1200.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joj5zefl9d0
But I am one of those folks who sat through the 2014 bear and - as a previous poster remarked - my hide is made of concrete
I already knew way back that a revisit to the $1000 level was possibly on the cards.
Yes.. not so difficult. We can sit through a year or two below $2k. It will shake out the worst speculative element.
151.
Post 48502725 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
This is not free market behaviour.
Theres a mad "professor" dumping his bags. More than any buyer can absorb.
There are many large holders from early years to whom $1000 per BTC represents a huge price.
They may have been confident before, but they might be inclined to sell 100,000's of BTC to avoid even a small chance of losing everything. That could be many billions of dollars that someone has to cough up.
There were huge sales at around $200 in 2015, and there is plenty more where that came from.
Balance will eventually be found, but the bottom is not yet predictable.
152.
Post 48502765 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
Honestly, if this isn't the last capitulation then I don't know what is.
All this constant, concentrated selling and shorting....with zero impetus....seen this movie before.
I still think the volume is not quite there. Have a look at 1D and 4H.
Yes. 2 or 3 days at $10BN might be needed to clear the large stashes which have become nervous.
153.
Post 48502781 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
Calling it...
Final low on Bitstamp ----> $2236
Reasoning ?
(otherwise it's a useless guess)
154.
Post 48530822 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
A thought experiment
........ It rallies to $5350
Then it drops , and smashes through all support to $1150 ....
..< crazy levels like $100 etc>..
Hodl.
...then wake up.
The true bottom might look similar to that in action, but the price will be 1k to 1.5k. Below that BTC will have technically failed.
155.
Post 48531737 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
aaah its as easy as that, so sell all my BTC's @ these low pricess buy back on the top of your bottom 1.5K and still have my coins more then doubled, just sell and wait for it , THX for the tip
not gonna take the risk however ...................
No, just hodl. You know that already.
This is just a response to a hypothetical situation which has no chance of happening.
The failure of BTC is a real risk (but low in probability). You should try to factor in every possibility no matter how remote. It's a way to think outside the box.
156.
Post 48543632 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
Figures not quite right. Hashrate has an error of 3 orders of magnitude.
157.
Post 48543805 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
Will be looking to increase my holdings if prices dip below $1,000 USD.
....and if one of the ego coins takes over?
ps good answer
[/quote]
By ego coins I assume you mean BCH BCHSV. How could you imagine that could happen ? It won't. They will kill each other : it is already happening.
158.
Post 48553816 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
I do not understand anything, I just made a real comment about my wife, she made me laugh and I published it.
Then I got these pretty negative comments towards me. >
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg48542439#msg48542439I think it's better to leave the WO.
I thank the rest of the members for the answers and their support of these days with all my questions.
Greetings to all.
You just hit one bad poster. Other members attacked him, not you.
Most internet forums have a bit of rough and tumble.
It's worth coming back to WO when you have been around the block on some other threads.
159.
Post 48553835 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
Also, did anyone notice Gentlemand is a weirdo? Not JayJuanGee level weirdo, but more like creepy, Dennis Rader style weirdo.
That's his gimmick.
..or could be the booze.
160.
Post 48559214 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
Bitcoin needs to get above 10k fast. Irobot has a new model that empties its own bin, and I'm thinking "Man that can make me even MORE of a degenerate pig".....
Oh hell yeah, I could do with one of those myself. Hurry the fuck up
BTC , some of us have needs!
As if any of you Hodlers will sell any when we see $10K. Hodlers don't know how to sell.
Today's idiot is tomorrow's genius
Next time we see 10k could be mid 2020. Almost no chance in 2019. Haven't even confirmed a bottom yet. This is so obvious that I cannot understand why ppl don't see it.
I would be very happy to see $6k again sometime next year, but I wouldn't guarantee it.
The good news is that for new buyers, current low prices will give a great 2 year return. If there were to be a further drop to say $1500, and a rise to $3000 by 2020 that gives a 100% ROI to first time buyers. It will give a boost to confidence from which a new bull market can start.
161.
Post 48559426 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
IMO has no effect either way. The market will go where it needs to go.
162.
Post 48559525 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
Almost there
Just for the lulz, where would you place the local top?
Hairy?
I'd say shy of 3.6k or just over 4k, but it's totally SOMA.
My guess is 5k. The dump from 6k was swift, and it needs to retrace some before it can head any lower.
163.
Post 48559587 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
sub $3k yes, 2500, is might be a bit more away
5k before 3k
164.
Post 48573071 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.20h):
... It seems that you are more pessimistic than I would like....
I am more pessimistic than I would like.
However, I always try to edit out my own wishful optimism and focus on an unbiased objective view.
I always did the same thing in stock trading forums etc.. The odd thing is, my actual trading is more optimistic, and I tend to hold back in hope and compromise a little, rather than fully carry out the hard realistic trades. When I look back at my own posts I usually wish I had followed my own advice more closely.
Its kind of like I am second-guessing myself, or splitting my personality. Seems to generate profit in practice, over the long term. Hopefully I'm still sane.
I wonder if any other posters recognise that method in themselves ?
165.
Post 48621297 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.20h):
I really have absolutely no fucking idea what the price is gonna do next. Bitcoin is like a box of
The overall price has been relatively easy to predict this year, and the general trend for the next year seems quite obvious to me. (maybe that means I'm wrong ?)
166.
Post 48641001 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.20h):
The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.
Sadly as it stands I think it's the opposite.
They're used to paper. Everything they do is built around it. The futures are provided by names they trust, unlike the physical options. Like most people here they're only after more dollars but at least they're happy to admit it.
They'll have to be dragged into thinking physical is to their benefit. It's alien to how they operate.
There would need to be an army of non traditional finance believers and players to take command of the price via physical options for them to pay attention.
Is that not the same for BTC ?
Most ppl are after more dollars. When the $$ price of BTC falls it is bad news for them. They are treating BTC like a stock/commodity, and most have an intention to sell (usually only a portion) for fiat.
That makes a lot of intended sales hanging over the market. This could be a very long bear market. I would guess the price needs to get low enough so that every potential seller has actually sold (fear) or is going to hodl (to 0 if needed) because the value of their holding is not enough to be worried about.
Simple Trading Psychology.
167.
Post 48654645 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.20h):
It's just so bullish.
What is bullish ? (I realise /s tag is missing, but what particularly was unbullish ?)
IMO the trend is still down, and the next target is 2600. however, that is a 20% drop, so it might not be quick.
I decided in February that I would not be surprised if price got to 1500 in 2019, and therefore the whole bear market, whilst not welcome, is not much of a shock.
168.
Post 48654893 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.20h):
Why not $1,300 like all the other Tone Vays acolytes are gravitating towards?
This is the reason (my post from Feb 13th)..
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30196222#msg301962221500 is in the middle. You can say 1300 if you like.
I said 2000 and sub 1500 in several other posts in February, and I would think the actual low print will be a swift affair : so 1500 print, with a bit more time spent around 2000. Thats my own guess.
I know you carry out diligence on past posts, so you will know what I have consistently said. (and I really do admire your depth of research)
I make my own calculations and don't take advice from others unless I agree with their reasoning.
169.
Post 48654995 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.20h):
I think that we are now within striking distance of this bear market lows. 3300 down to 2000 is not that far. (might be a quick drop to 1500 at the low print, but you could miss it if you blink)
However, as far as time goes, there is a long way to go yet. The majority of the price pain is mostly done, but the waiting is going to be hard.
$3000 is strong support. Could be a bounce from here, but a new lower low in a few months.
Just my rough guess.
170.
Post 48655057 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.20h):
19666*3 = 58,998
or
19666*10 = 196,660
Awesome =)
Could well be between those levels.
Will be a few years to wait, but worth it !
171.
Post 48674198 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.20h):
I think true capitulation is in - My reasoning = no micgoosens for multiple pages
Spot on. You will be surprised how true that is, and also how long it will before it happens.
3 months averaging 2 pages a week on WO, is my guess. Maybe 2020.
The way to deal with it, if you have an income, is to put 5% of your spare capital into BTC every month. That way, you will be $ cost averaging through the lows.
If you dont have any spare, then the best thing to do is go away and find a distraction from looking at the price for a year or two (while hodling)
172.
Post 48680664 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.20h):
Fortunately it all looks so doom. It must be harder to trick people by dumping it lower as people are coming to expect it.
Surprising , many still dont expect it.
This market has been easy to predict in 2018. It is not difficult to see what lies ahead, either.
173.
Post 48680790 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.20h):
I can't believe some alts are so cheap, in 2017 everybody believed prices would have rised more and more... now it could be a huge opportunity to get into the market.
Although, scam coins are still present and I don't see Ethereum in good shape as it was 1 year ago.
I can't believe most of them have retained the price they still have. Which says to me we still have a ways to go.
It's getting tricky to understand how much it could go lower, but probably you are right. This is a huge depression.
Not a depression. This is a normal wave. It will remain normal if the low does not get under $1500.
The recovery will take 2-3 years.
174.
Post 48690720 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.21h):
This is getting very, very reminiscent of the last bear market both price trajectory but also our very own WO thread activity. We’re going back to 2015 levels of posting. It’s totally dying in here which is possibly a good sign to tell you the bottom might be in or at least very close.
On a large scale, the downtrend is flattening... until now.
A common error of traders is that they want to catch the very bottom.
You don't NEED that. Actually, unless you're the big whale(or group) that's moving the price you probably won't manage to "catch the falling knife".
Instead of that, near the bottom there's plenty of time to think and make a good decision to buy and make a good profit with lower risk of missing out.
That's way I bought on the way down. There is a good chance the price will go down further but... damn... I even bought when it was 12-13k... now it's time to make decisions!
Safest to buy when the price has doubled from the lows, over at least a few months.Then you are with the trend.
It will be a bit of a wait now, because we are still in the downtrend. It is psychologically damaging to buy a downtrend, but if you think you can cope, go ahead ! Patience required.
175.
Post 48706936 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.21h):
Yep
Btw, I should probably ask, what is a crypto winter? I assumed it was just another term for bear market, but idk, and you’re a legendary member, so maybe you’d know?
I'd say it's the wasteland following a bear market where price doesn't budge for what feels like forever. Look to the seemingly eternal $200-250 phase after the low was in in January 2015. It probably wasn't all that long in retrospect.
It seems to be when many projects and hopes die. The beary bit is still filled with delusion.
Yes. Then we are entering the winter now.
Most of the price falls are behind us, but this is the hardest bit. Months of slow declines and failing projects. Slow attrition.
Afterwards, spring is also slow in developing.
176.
Post 48713325 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.21h):
....So, during the bear market, employ your time opening accounts in as many exchanges as you can, verify as needed, learn their UI, etc... During a bull market things happen very fast, and chances are that you won't be able to use that exchange you need to trade some fork/altcoin or use for fiat withdrawal if you have not done your homework well in advance.....
This is great advice.
The bear market will be long and tough to endure, and this is just the sort of work that will be making progress, instead of anxiously watching falling or stagnant prices.
Verification can often be a long process. It is also useful to be familiar with the rules of the exchanges and businesses you deal with.
177.
Post 48719977 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.21h):
47 people got the poll wrong so far.
The answer is "you don't know."
We're in a speculation thread...
The one thing I've learned from this thread is that nobody really knows anything.
Speculating is a bit different from letting a monkey throw a dart at a wall, where one half of it is painted "yes" in green and the other half painted "no" in red. The monkey would have just as good odds of answering this question as anybody else.
Thus, the correct answer is "I don't know."
Not so. If you were right, there is no point in posting on this thread.
This thread is about speculation. It is self evident that nobody has certain knowledge of the future price, but many opinions and guesses have some valid insight.
We all post our opinions, either you have one or you don't.
178.
Post 48751171 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.21h):
.....and the sucker's rally begins
Yes, bitcoin's price has a habit of filling gaps and this seems no different. It would not indicate a V-bottom reversal to me unless it cracked above the descending triangle's floor at ~5700.
That would be a strong indication, but time is a more important variable than price IMO.
The low will only be confirmed to be in the rear-view mirror when price has held at least 50 % above the low point (lets say that is around $5k) for several months.
That point will be the safest area to buy .
It is risky to anticipate it, because a subsequent drop to a new low can wipe out a lot of capital .
The % rise from a lower low would more often give a greater profit than the missed potential of waiting for confirmation.
Drip-feeding in would mitigate the effect, of course.
179.
Post 48751232 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.21h):
Aren't you worried about how long you will live?
If you're a purple bloated leaking gasbag with millipedes crawling out your eye sockets then you tend not to worry about such things any more.
Anyway I remember you offering Rpietlia some health advice once upon a time and look what happened to him.
I think Rpietlia didn't need physical health advice. His reactions to events just seemed to follow a bipolar schedule.
180.
Post 48778836 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.21h):
But still we have to zoom out, this is the first meaningful pump/bounce we had since falling off a cliff from 6k. Markets don't move in straight lines. We still have to make our first higher high on the daily.
Therefore we need to close above 4.4k, until that happens the trend is still bearish. I dont expect us to break 4.4k without first making a higher low in the 3.6k area. If that higher low fails we will see new lows
Absolutely : The most important level is not where this pump goes, but where the next low meets support.
A high above 5k is quite possible, because the drop from 6.4k was steep. Key support should be tested in Jan/Feb. If 3.5k or higher holds, that is positive.
Longer term trend is strongly down, but hopefully that will look more level in a few months.
181.
Post 48839708 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.22h):
fuck you jjg waves is the future
also agi
do you like my hot tip?
I don't understand how your point is a "fuck you" to me.
First: I largely don't make BTC price predictions beyond proclaiming that the odds are 50% (or plus or minus 1% to 10% of such 50%), and mostly my activism in this thread amounts to just criticizing the BTC price predictions of others, especially when those others are coming off as more certain about BTC price than me.
B: I need moar splainin regarding the basis of your criticism of me because I not as witty as u.
Critcal Activism is a vital function. I seem to find myself doing a lot of it.
Good policing improves the whole quality of the thread.
182.
Post 48874060 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.22h):
When btc gets a dump, and the same microsecond the alts get a dump as well, it cannot be people being greedy/fearful, right? it must be a coupling in some form to the mastercoin, btc?
im not saying anything about the intrinsical value of an alt itself, nor if its a good or a bad alt, but just these fluctuations intrigue me and i dont really understand...
Not sure I understand your question : the answer seems self evident :
There is trading constantly on multiple exchanges 24/7, every second of the day. The alt prices (on coinmarket cap or whatever) are based on 'last trade' for a number of exchanges. The trade is in BTC, that is converted to $$ in the quote. If BTC $ price changes, then so must the alt $ price, even if there is no further trade.
If a bid/offer is hit then the BTC price changes as well.
183.
Post 48876041 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.22h):
When bitcoin makes a pump or a dump, the alt varies in BTCprice as well, and thats strange to me. (as your explanation (as far as i understand) states the $$ price must go up and down seems logic as the BTC value varies in $$ value. That makes sense. But why does the BTC value of the alt change so much as well?? Thats double... For instance: when BTC takes a drop of 10% in $$ value, the ALT makes adrop of 10% in $$value (logic), AND a drop of 10% in BTC value as well (unlogic), makes a total devaluation of that coin of 20%..)
Cannot comment on specific instances, but trading goes on all the time. As far as very short timeframes go, there are bids and offers sitting on the exchanges that are hit (often by bots) when certain conditions change.
The round-robin of exchange rates often means that one change starts a cascade of trades. Obviously the more volatile alts move more.
With slightly longer times, then of course there is switching and balancing between coins. It all depends on the potential orders in each alt, which could be any amount.
184.
Post 48946554 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.23h):
I think we have breached a record of consecutive post with no single mention to Bitcoin.
Not sure if this one counts either.
This thread is now a ghost town reminiscent of some time in 2015 when ChartBuddy used to make consecutive posts before any human posted.
That lasted quite a few months. Patience is required.
The best hope is for no excitement until the summer.
185.
Post 48946738 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.23h):
I am preparing a new thread:
"List exchanges hacked 2011/2018"
What section do you advise me?
Economy, it's okay?
Economics : Trading
I will contribute. I have numerous instances of loss in that field : and also one or two recoveries.
Probably a lot of WO posters have experience.
186.
Post 48967020 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.23h):
Now given that if the ETF is approved, we can look back and say that it 100 percent was in fact approved. If I believe now that it will be approved, I prefer to look at it the same way I will after the fact. That is to say I believe that a Bitcoin ETF will soon be approved and I place the likelihood of approval at exactly 100.00% with zero margin of error.
Whether or not it is approved will make no difference to the medium or long term price.
Crypto is in a bear market, which has to play-out. The time scale is easy to see from the long term chart of BTC.
Once we get to 2020, then news will be more capable of a positive effect.
187.
Post 48981543 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.23h):
Breaking news: bitcoin's not in a bear market.
Price is in the pocket.
We've never had a real bear market, as opposed to
deflating bubbles.
Maybe if the price takes a dive below that red line, we'll have some food for thought.
BTC is definitely in a Bear Market relative to its own adoption curve..
The terms Bear and Bull market are simply used to demarcate phases of price activity. In a Bear phase, price acts in a distinctly different way from a Bull phase. You can name the market as you wish, but the phase of activity now is distinctly different from 2016-2017.
Looking at the full chart there, we can see that the upper trendline does not reach the a new all time high until 2020, and the lower trendline until late 2021.
188.
Post 48994417 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.23h):
Happy New Years!!!
A new year is here with a new bull market to go with it.
We aren't stopping till 100k minimum.
This is a 100 percent confirmed fact by 11 intelligence agencies.
If you don't believe it you are a denier and society will shun you.
Bottom shorters this will be the worst year of your life.
Now that sounds like the perfect 2019
Realistically though I see $8,000 - $10,000 as the high for 2019, love to be proved wrong tgough.
Happy New Year.
I personally see the top for 2019 as around $5k, and the bottom around $2k, but I wouldn't like to say which comes first.
189.
Post 48994509 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.23h):
What’s the best way to short the UK stock market in the event of a hard Brexit?
The best thing to do is not to short at all :
a. There may not be a Brexit.
b. UK stockmarket may rise after a hard Brexit.
c. You will most likely get timing wrong, even if you are right.
190.
Post 48995788 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.23h):
Also a first time ever
This is an indicator that the low of roughly $2000 could be setting up for the first half of 2019.
Lets get it over and done with, then the new bull market can start in 2020.
191.
Post 49070122 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.24h):
wtf, more and more people are arguing with roach. at least stop quoting him or risk getting ignored by the rest of us WO's.
^^^ Please.
This place can be vaguely entertaining and informative when the drivel is removed.
Yes. A high % of drivel here atm.
Although roach is bigoted and some of his theories are wild, a lot of the replies are pointless ad hominem attacks.. To an impartial observer who has no opinion to start with, roach's posts might have a semblance of logic.
Is this akin to the de-platforming of extremist views ? Should free speech be aired in order to debate both the wrong and the right ideas ?
If posters really must reply, at least engage with the points made, or ignore.
Optimistically, a high % of nonsense posts could (maybe) indicate we are in the bottom-forming phase.
192.
Post 49214505 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
When’s the blood shed going to stop.
Nobody can be sure. Long slow bottoming process. If you prepare for a 2 year wait, you will not be too stessed.
Whether the bottom is $3k or $1k is not so important as the timing of the next proper upswing.
Even a further downswing to $1.5k by 2020 would be quickly reversed in a new bull trend.
The only advice I can give is the same as I have been saying for the last year : try to get on with other business, and not watch BTC too closely.
193.
Post 49216643 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
I hate to say it, but could be another year or two of Bear/ Sideways market.
We can hope not, but past experience suggests realistic scenario is 3 years between bull runs. (actually getting longer with each cycle)
194.
Post 49219170 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
I hate to say it
Isn't this what most here are expecting anyway?
Possibly, but the thought of that upsets many posters, and I am not here trying to be negative (or positive), but merely to offer my own opinion, FWIW, of realistic scenarios.
Another 2 years of unfulfilled hopium on WO does not fill me with joy, but maybe there is not much else to say.
195.
Post 49220293 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.26h):
if you only had a window into price in $ and NOTHING else, it would be an insufficient info, obviously.
...
Yes...and $$ inflation highlights just one example in which the future price snapshot has little value.
Say also that you find out the price on date x would be $200. What action can you take right now ?
How can you know if the structure of BTC will be the same ? How can you know what fork can have happened, and whether consensus has changed the issuance of units ? What if the price was $20000 just a few months after your chosen date, for unknown technical reasons ?
..and that is just the guesses we can make. How about the unknown unknowns ?
196.
Post 49362677 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.27h):
..
Some folks don't realize that the "holy shit" of bitcoin is wrapped up in its proof of work, so proof of work is a feature, not a bug. Proof of work causes bitcoin incentive, and like you suggested, paashaas, will continue to generate incentives that cause the downfall of the whole financial system, causing value to flow into bitcoin. The audacity of the article seems to show that there are many traditional financial incumbents who will be willing to battle quite strenuously to spread their nonsense about bitcoin supposedly being flawed, when in fact they are pointing out central features.. namely POW in this case.
.....
terse
[/quote]
JGJ is anything but terse.
Your one word reply is autological and weird !
197.
Post 49362732 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.27h):
Damn, I pretty patient when it comes to long term shit but this is getting ridiculous.
Really? Compared to what?
I think you are probably not as patient as you think.
Only need to give it another year or two.
.
I would not be surprised to see this year end at similar levels to today (possibly with a dip in between). I still think a low in the 1000's is possible.
198.
Post 49459668 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.28h):
D
That chart does not give a very confident outlook. At the very least it would indicate the recovery will be slow, or sideways for a number of months.
We cannot rule out another leg down to a new low, but if $3200 holds for another few months, with 10-20% upside progress, that will then look quite postive.
Way too early to go all in.
The best news is that speculative price activity will not be distracting talent from real progress like proper appropriate regulation and better development.
199.
Post 49464223 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.28h):
I understand that you are not talking about 100% of a guy(gal)'s total investment portfolio, but likely instead you are referring to NOT going "all in" with what portion of value the guy/gal has allocated towards bitcoin investing.
Personally, I never recommend going "all in" but instead always being prepared for either price direction (both in other words).
I have to admit that I am not trading BTC myself, but I respond to trading related posts . My trading occurs mainly in the normal stock market. I have found it is always easier to make correct calls when there is no real position at stake : Emotions don't come into play so much.
The BTCT forum has become a theoretical testing ground for me, and I just offer my own opinion FWIW along with all the other mixed content.
So, I just think myself into the position of a trader when I make that sort of post. TBH, I am looking at BTC rather like a long term growth stock (Buffett style investing, if you like) . Like a stock, I like to be aware that total loss is a possibility. My own approach is probably at odds with most other posters here, but thats why I like to give my view, for variety (it might seem like devils advocate sometimes, but that is not deliberate).
I would always advise being prepared for a move in either direction, whatever you are trading. I eventually made my whole business from trading (various instruments) over many decades, and it is not an easy option. My best advice for a would be trader is , don't do it at all, unless you are psychologically prepared for regular losses.
200.
Post 49570905 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.29h):
This sideways on the lower range is absolutely nerve crushing. I am trying hard to forget about Bitcoin for a while and just go on with my life as I did last time, but I can't avoid coming back to check how it is doing. I don't remember the last bear market to be so hurting. If/when we ever get pass it a new generation of really hardened hodlers will be born. Harder than ever.
The last bear market felt just the same. When you can not be bothered to look for months at a time and have genuinely given up, that is when the new bull will gradually start. You won't see it happen because you won't be looking. It is a great indicator.
I believe this bear will be longer than the last one. Apologies for the bad news, but I think it's best to be realistic.
201.
Post 49785205 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.32h):
When 5K
When 7.7k
When 10k
When 15K
When ATH break
Exact dates please
Jan 23 2020
Nov 2 2020
May 18 2021
Dec 15 2021
202.
Post 49899020 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.33h):
Soooo.... no ATH today?
Nope. Be glad if we regain $4k.
4k is in the upper part of the trading range we could be in for at least a year. 3200 is the lower part atm.
203.
Post 49899064 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.33h):
I hate to be that guy but it is going down. Back to $3.5k most likely.
Remember.
The bottom bowl isn't wide enough yet. Too early for another ATH.
More chances for late comers to buy. GREAT!
edit: 3.8k lol aaand just when i was typing hit 3.7xx
Agree. The bottom bowl, as you put it, needs to be between 1 year and 2 years wide.
204.
Post 49899137 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.33h):
Soooo.... no ATH today?
Nope. Be glad if we regain $4k.
4k is in the upper part of the trading range we could be in for at least a year. 3200 is the lower part atm.
Maybe a year is too long term. I am still expecting for some bull run in Q4 that could propel us even as high as over $6K. Unless the bear market gets extended more than the last time, which is also a possibility.
Could be. I am working on the assumption that the bottoming processes are becoming longer in each successive bear market, as the whole market matures. That would also chime with the larger amount of optimism (contrarian) that we still see, compared to this stage in 2014-15
205.
Post 49899271 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.33h):
If we make it to above $6k somehow, we'll find ourselves at $20k in a few weeks (or months more likely) maybe and $100k will happen even faster. It took 6 months to carry the price from $1k to $6k and it took only 2 months to make it to $20k from $6k in 2017.
Those are the figures from the 2017 final run to ATH. It won't be anything like that, because, when we get to 6k next, it wont be close to the final bull run. The move from 6k to 20k could take another year of ups and downs, and 6k will not be inviolable either.
For a better comparative forecast, I would suggest (only a very rough speculation) the take-off comes from 35k and gets to 90k in a few months , in 2022 or 2023. Until then , its a relatively slow grind.
206.
Post 49907429 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.33h):
And the partly stops, seems like we got dump hard in just less than a day.
The expectation of a bull run might change from most of the guys because the market is still very bearish.
I'm seeking some advise from the experts here, what to do next? What's the next price?
why ask a bunch of people who know just as little as you?
it's not super bearish. it's really not super bullish. it's kind of nowhere. there'll be violent moves that make no sense that don't follow through. this is what it's like when things have been wrung out.
Thats a good summary. The market does now seem to be nearly 'wrung out'. ... It's a classic chart pattern for a long time frame. Markets never move when there are too many 'passengers'
The trading range/random moves then go on for an extended period, in order to squeeze out any remaining speculators through either draining of enthusiasm, or exhaustion of trading capital. That will be 'as long as it takes'. Could even be years , especially after a really wild bull market.
207.
Post 49912189 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.33h):
There will only be 818,913 more bitcoin mined before the next halvening event.
That is only $3 billion worth of bitcoin.
Let bears enjoy a few extra percentage points.
Worrying about catching the exact bottom is like trying to pick up a penny in front of a steamroller.
https://twitter.com/alecziupsnys/status/1099746204433506304?s=21Well nobody new is buying at the moment, let alone $3B of new money. Down we go.
Well, that doesn't include any existing holders who wish to cash out a little bit to fiat.
A net sale is a given for the next year or so, but that might only mean a slow drift down, not a sudden move at a predictable time..
IMO any new buyers in the next year or two will take up the issuance, leaving the price in a stable range. If volatility is low for a long time, it will ease objections about volatility making real use cases difficult..
Between 3k and 4k until 2021 is quite possible.
208.
Post 49956898 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.34h):
Bitcoin Whales Have Been Acquiring Large Amounts of Cryptocurrency in Past Two Months
https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/02/bitcoin-whales-have-been-acquiring-large-amounts-of-cryptocurrency-in-past-2-months/"According to the “top 100 rich list” for cryptocurrency, compiled by Bitcoin.com, there are certain “whale wallets” that have been steadily increasing their crypto holdings - with every drop the digital asset market has experienced since December 2017. When crypto prices plummeted on February 24th, a number of whales reportedly bought large amounts of bitcoin (BTC) and bitcoin cash (BCH).
...
Between December 17th, 2018 and February 25th, 2019, the four largest wallets associated with the exchanges (mentioned above) had increased their holdings by 2,879 BTC, an amount valued at approximately $10.8 million. In comparison, the remaining top 100 largest crypto addresses accumulated 151,505 BTC, which is currently valued at over $577 million according to CryptoCompare data."
Surely that's not a good sign ? It is the opposite of wider distribution.
A distribution from larger wallets to smaller/new holders would be more bullish.
209.
Post 49956948 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.34h):
When moon?
Just a little bit more patience.
The moon-rise has begun, it's just off to a very slow start.
Simple answer, best answer.
Don't be disappointed if we are still below 5k this time next year.
210.
Post 50006682 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.34h):
When we talk of %invested, do we mean original amount invested, or current ratio? Because mine are VERY different.
That begs an interesting question with regard to rebalancing of investments.
For any investment, it should represent a minimum and maximum % of the portfolio. Sales and purchases rebalance when it gets outside the range. I would guess BTC s limits for an investor would be a lot wider than for conventional investments (example min 2%, max 50%) but the balancing would still apply.
Opinions will be interesting.
211.
Post 50014807 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.34h):
Bleh, I have seen my Bitcoins lose $16000 *each* from ATH. The remaining $4000 per BTC are not gonna make me lose sleep.
Win or bust for me. In a few years I will reevaluate my position.
Absolutely. You are the sort of hodler that predominates when the bottom is reached.
A drop to $2k now does not invalidate the whole premise of long term adoption.
In fact a drop of $1000 soon might at least finally turn sentiment. There are still a lot of weak hands that need to be removed.
212.
Post 50015014 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.34h):
Me either, that is going to be another test for us, we have survive this far, I don't know if we can still do the same with $3,000 below.
May 2020 is only just over a year. You will manage. ...I would think the probability that we have seen the bottom is 50/50. Another low around $2k is not the end of the world.
The hardest part is the waiting now.
213.
Post 50041649 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.35h):
[edited out]
Perhaps our Roach and his future lover Gembitz were slain as the bear market morphed into a new Baby Bull Market.
I am not going to go so far as to say that there is no such thing as a "baby bull market" but surely we are not in such a market yet.
The evidence seems pretty strong that we are currently in a bear market... however, subsequently, if the current bottom of $3,122 is not breached, and better yet $3,700 is NOT breached then there could be some later BTC price behavior that causes us to subsequently describe this period as the beginning of a bull market (aka baby bull)... but we are very far from such a defined state, and it remains about a 52% to 48% proposition that the bottom is NOT in.
Yes , concisely put.. it is as simple as that. If you use logic and pattern recognition, the log-scale 9 year chart shows a progression which is clear. As I have always said, a 2019/2020 low at approx $2000-$3000 is about right. Whether that low is in now, or whether there is a further drop will only be resolved with the passage of time . +/- a year or two or a thousand or two does not change the long term pattern.
214.
Post 50070829 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.35h):
I am not trying to describe a preferred course, because I would prefer that the price just goes shooting up.
Instead, I am just thinking about what kind of scenarios (of course I may change my mind) would cause me to start to assert that we are no longer in a bear market.. and we have converted from bear to bull market. Because ever since we dropped below $6k without bouncing up in a reasonably quick time, I converted my labelling of the market from bull to bear. These are merely variations of conditions that I could think of that would cause me to convert back.
I suppose there could be another kind of 4th circumstances that if the price breaks below $3,320, then what would it take for me to consider the conversion from bear to bull?, but since we have not yet broken below $3,320 to satisfy another possible scenario, I consider that kind of 4th condition to be too far removed from current speculation and NOT worthy of consideration until such 4th condition were to actually happen, if it does.
I looked back at all my posts in Feb 2018, when I labelled this a Bear Market, due for an 85% drop. I have never really changed my mind.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30067641#msg30067641https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg29643594#msg29643594https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30196222#msg30196222https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30244256#msg30244256$2k low can still happen. (I would say around 30% probability now). The longer it stays above £3200 the less likely, but only if there is a creeping rise. Bumping along the bottom is not a good sign. The BTC waves are getting longer as the adoption/market matures, and therefore it might not be possible to call the low being in until at least 2020, worst case 2021. Regarding your test levels, my own instinct is that a move above $4k which doesn't get reversed for at least 6 months, would be the earliest possible prediction of a bull trend. Even that might be premature.
In the end it's all down to probabilities. Anyone who makes firm dogmatic predictions is due for a lot of disappointments in their trading. My own instinct, taking all things into consideration, is that there is a 50% chance we touch $5k sometime this year (but may still end sub4k in December) 30% chance there is a new sub3k low, and the bear ends in late 2021. 10% it gets $5k-6k by end year, 5% deep freeze (sub 2k), and 5% moon (that would be ~8k by year end).
Keep up the hopium. I'm a bull too, but a realistic one !
further edit : I suppose I should give a 10% for 'other', just to be more exacting, so label 'touch 5k this year' as 40%.
215.
Post 50070953 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.35h):
First of all, Bitcoin is in a bull market since its creation in 2009. For a truly bear market we can talk if the prices are lower 20% from the ATH after 10 years or more (this is the case with gold and silver, which are nearly 10 years much lower than the ATH - ...
So, at some point this year, we will break out from the falling wedge pattern and resume the bull trend. All we need is more volume so the break out will be defended.
Bear markets dont have to last 10 years.
You can label it what you like, that's just semantics.
The correction/bear/downwave will be proportionate to the bull phase. With BTC, it has always been longer in downwave than in upwave. A study of the charts reveals that quite clearly.
Way too early to predict a new bullphase this year. It is only a possibility, not a likelihood. Looking back from 2023 we might label it with hindsight.
216.
Post 50211747 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.37h):
I capitulated today. Am now 100% cold hodl storage Bitcoin for my crypto portfolio. No fiat reserves left at all and no open trading positions. Am completely committed to the bandwagon.
I have also increased my Bitcoin stack by 58% since 1 December 2017 so good outcome there.
Time will tell if I have moved too early but I believe the risk of any meaningful downside is now gone.
This...is the kind of hubris that the Bitcoin market routinely punishes.
just sayin'
Of course that is true.
There is always some risk of meaningful downside.
The 2018-2019 bear market might not be long enough to be complete yet, so I would say that the risk of significant downside is still relatively high, but diminishing with each passing month.
At a rough guess , the probabilities favour the bottom being in, but only just...perhaps 40% chance of a new low later this year.
217.
Post 50234701 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.37h):
Weird coincidence yesterday. After I saw this chart nd went out I was at the gas station and a car drove up and some chick said in broken English that she was from Dubai and wanted to trade her gold ring for gas. I told her I don't buy gold.
I didn't even look at the ring she was holding out, have no clue if it was real or not.
I have a clue
You're right. A little bit of thought and most ppl realise.
That sort of thing has been going on forever , nearly always highway/motorway service stations (watches, designer clothes, luxury items, all with a story, either fake or not what they seem). There must be a few who fall for it to keep the scammers going.
218.
Post 50265826 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.38h):
That makes more sense than many of the charts posted recently.
Could be in that area, but I feel the peak will come later, and the rise be slower initially, because :
1. The waves are clearly getting longer , and
2. The mania (and publicity) in the last parabolic peak was so great, it will take longer to dissipate.
So, the unpalatable news is, expect the peak around 2023, and don't be surprised if the price dawdles around $4k for another year. 30% chance of another leg down to $2xxx later this year. 30% chance of $5xxx at year end.
219.
Post 50266927 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.38h):
1. The waves are clearly getting longer
There is no evidence for that.
Only a look at the chart. Any evidence against it ?
220.
Post 50266945 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.38h):
Is it just me
Yes
30% chance of another leg down to $2xxx later this year. 30% chance of $5xxx at year end.
there's an 86.7% chance you pulled those numbers out of your @$$
No, I am correct. I have a great track record . More experience of trading than most, but in many markets other than BTC.
221.
Post 50266976 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.38h):
Is it just me
Yes
30% chance of another leg down to $2xxx later this year. 30% chance of $5xxx at year end.
there's an 86.7% chance you pulled those numbers out of your @$$
No, I am correct. I have a great track record and more experience of trading than any other poster.
and whats the most likely to happen IYO?
My opinions are all in my posts. Everything is opinion here of course.
Everything is just probabilities.
222.
Post 50267042 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.38h):
Do we need 2 ? Yours is the original, and always gets a lot of responses.
223.
Post 50267118 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.38h):
[
THX, maybe not but think he's doing it mainly for the Philippines ..... and just wanted to be a bit supportive.
there wasn't been asked to me leaving it here .... but maybe there are some with interest.
Ah yes, I see it's in local boards.
224.
Post 50267172 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.38h):
Market updates today. The market is fully red, I think it will be green shoon. What is this actually red market or market correction?
I think it is just noise. The trading range has been tight for some time.
It's bad for your health to follow the price too closely !
225.
Post 50430626 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.39h):
Is this the calm after the storm now? I wouldn’t mind a period of 3-4 months in this range. Low volatility is good for bitcoin. Average Joe doesn’t want to buy when the price is up & down like a yoyo.
I’d be cool with low volatility until June/July or something before the next leg up to $ 6,000 or something.
Anybody agree?
I do.
It's too soon for FOMO. We need consolidation. That's only achieved with TIME.
Spot on. Time is as important as price.
The next vital level will be the low of the next drop. Cannot yet see where the short term top and reverse will come in, but it will probably start within a few days.
The strongest scenario would be a drop in volatility over the next few weeks, followed by a small dump to test support. $5-6k is realistic for year end, but that is a long way off and a lot of price action will go under the bridge in the meantime.
It is still early days .
226.
Post 50430808 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.39h):
I don't think that we're going to have low volatility in the short term. I've got a feeling that bitcoin is in the mood of making alts super-rekt and getting an increase in overall market dominance, by first dumping again (to somewhat like ~$4400) and then pumping again (to somewhat like ~$5100).
Alts are generally stronger than BTC on this rally. That is actually good news because it is a change in phase. The bear phase of the last year or so may have changed.
Too early to call a bull phase, but the probabilities are a bit better than 3 months ago.
227.
Post 50449663 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.40h):
Dead? Nah, it's pining for the fjords!
A settling back is to be expected after such a remarkable rise... But any remaining doubts the bear market is over are surely now disappearing.
Edited: posts comin' too fast...
It's looking very good indeed, but I'm still prepared to be put through the meat grinder.
Plain sailing all the way is not realistic, of course - this is Bitcoin after all. Keeping expectations in check and being pleasantly surprised is probably a better strategy than the reverse of it. That said, a little spring in the step is probably warranted. We are a fair way over $3122, after all...
Keep expectations in check : that is the best advice.
This wave up is merely the mirror of the wave down from £6k a few months back. That was quick, with little support. It has not regained $6xxx yet. Even if it does soon, it is going to meet a lot of upside resistance there.
Best scenario would be to get above $6k, then retrace to around 5K and hold for a few months. A year end close above $4k is fine, above 5k would be good.
Wait and watch.
228.
Post 50454073 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.40h):
Weekly Cloud overview. #dyor
#stronghands
This chart would suggest price is likely to stay around $4k (=/- 1k) until June 2020.
I would guess that is not a popular view. Most posters would refuse to believe it.
229.
Post 50454196 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.40h):
You really wonder if Mic being so friendly to others on this forum is healthy? Of course it is. Being consistently cranky, salty, confrontational, toxic etc in your every day life to everyone around you is extremely unhealthy and wreaks havoc on your physical and mental health. Study after study has demonstrated the negative health consequences of living life as an obstinate prick. It shortens your lifespan and decreases your health and quality of life(Thursdays for instance) for the duration of your shorter life.
Instead of jealously criticizing Mr. Goose for being friendly and well liked here, you should emulate some of his character traits and you will stay alive to hodl longer and maybe bag on JJG thursdays will be called off even.
Good point.
Being critical of other posters' views is what really informs, but there is a good way and a bad way of putting it. The real characters of posters can usually be seen 'between the lines', in their style of argument.
Ad hominem attacks reveal true anger or bias.
edit: However, it is worth remembering that the really critical posters are giving us a lot of information and their conclusions (sometimes useful stuff) without us having to do the agonising analysis !
230.
Post 50482749 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.40h):
Ok I have had a bit of a look and I can’t come up with any models which support $12k+ before November 2019 at the very earliest even with front running so I am not going to worry about that as a possibility.
Logically and TA-based, yes, but how about the fuh-damentals?
Was there a model in Jan 2013 indicating that in April 2013 the price would be 1800% higher?
Absolutely not, yet it happened.
Where is your "leap of faith", HM?
Toxic2400 also drew something that might happen, plus or minus.
Personally, I am a bit bored about all models that draw neat bowl like movements projecting into 2023.
Where is the fury of the exponent of the adoption stick?
In 2013 there was very little historic precedent to draw on. The market was naive and raw. Adoption and interest has increased exponentially since then, and the market has become much more deep and liquid. The intense volatility seen in the infancy of the market will slowly smooth out. That is another reason for the wave cycles ( bear/bull markets) getting longer.
Behaviour now conforms more closely to TA standards. In fact, I would argue that crypto is now entering a stage of early maturity which can be compared to stock markets in the early 20th century, before the modern era of manipulation/overly complex reflexivity. Therefore TA would be expected to work best in the crypto era we are entering.
231.
Post 50565647 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.41h):
Of course, I am still not convinced that this market has transitioned into anything beyond further consolidation.. even if there are recent bullish tendencies in the past month or so and especially in the past couple of weeks.
But, projections of impending new lows, borders on wishful thinking to me, even while we cannot really rule out that the bottom is NOT in...
For example, if we stay above $4,200 in the coming weeks, then I might just switch over to considering this a bull market, at that time.
TLDR: The next two weeks = critical
Yes, this phase of consolidation is more likely to continue. Whilst we may be at the start of an uptrend, the likelihood of a new low has not receded that much (hazard a guess at 35% ?)
I would add one more , possibly useful, comment :
The break down from $6200 was sharp, and showed the weakness of support in the zone between 6k and 4k. This is often mirrored on the way up, therefore resistance is likely to be weak, hence the ease with which price has risen in the last couple of months. Assuming the bottom is in (balance of probability only),
there could still be a lot of work to do (and time to spend) in this area, before any decisive further advance.
Pessimistic scenario : 5-6k needed revisiting and testing before a new low.
Optimistic scenario : 5-6k will work out and consolidate over a few more months, providing the base for a 2020 uptrend.
232.
Post 50703491 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.42h):
It is much better not to plan on BTC hitting 20k soon. If it does that would only hurt if you are short.
Personally I would much rather see BTC just slowly climb to up with lots of sideways consolidation.
Your wish will be granted...
..just beware of the sharper dips now and again.
233.
Post 50734138 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.43h):
Tyler Jerkstore can go screw a light socket too!
Looks like a creepy, old pedophile.
This prediction is as hazardous as saying the bottom is in 100%. In fact it is nonsense : the two probabilities are mutually exclusive.
99% and 100% likelihoods are opinions of conviction which are usually wrong. Reading most of the comment over the last few days, it seems opinion is polarised.
Using a standard contrarian analysis here, the low will not be $1000, but the bottom may not yet be in.
From $6k + there could be a final low of ~2k. That will make all consensus wrong, as it usually is.
I don't have an opinion either way, just trying to bounce off the whole range of views.
234.
Post 50808459 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.43h):
^
Tnx, I will work a little more on this, I will include username and registration date.
My point of view is that if Tether and Bfx do not end in a drama..., we'll go up to $ 6000, go down 1,000 or 1,500 and then start climbing to finish the year at $10,000, in my opinion.
Looking at it realistically, surely there is virtually no chance of that sort of volatility this year ?
A range of $3k to 7k will most likely hold. Of course every scenario has some probability, but $1500/$10,000 are most unlikely in the space of just 7 months.
235.
Post 50978445 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.45h):
the story always develops in a spiral, the subsequent waves are longer, not the same, so the weekly trend at that time is comparable to the monthly now
I would agree with that premise, of longer waves, but not to that extent. Looking at the whole long term chart, I estimate the peak-to-peaks of 2011-2013 and 2013-2017 being 30 months and 48 months respectively. That would indicate the next p-to-p be roughly 66 months ie 2017-2023 (June).
Its a long wait, but not considering the enormous amount of price work to be done: the next peak could be upwards of 80k
236.
Post 50978511 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.45h):
If it plays out like how it did in 2016, how many "x" can we get from here? From $300 to $20k, it did 66x last time.
If we manage to get half of what happened the last time, $6.3k x 33 = $200k. Drooling right now.
TA says the next ATH will be minimum $50k, max $100k... So I don't really expect anything higher.
This looks so bullish, I might break my own rules and go FOMO. I am really trying hard now.
From 3200 (not 6300) is equivalent. That gives 'only' 100k . There would be a lot of 'price work' , in many waves, needed, so patience is required. Another 4 years is quite likely (see my post above)
237.
Post 51004331 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.45h):
Looking good.
At some point we will need a pullback. Would be nice to see 6k form strong support.
Great news then, but as always it would be wise to be looking ahead to the next stage.
This has now become an exponential rise. All exponential rises end in a big pullback... the only question is where is the top ? A buyer here will inevitably be under water at some point, but it seems more likely that this is the first proper step in a bull market.
The real test is, when the sharp pullback comes, where does support come in ? A bounce from anything over 6k will be positive (looking at a timeframe of some months)
238.
Post 51004344 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.45h):
But why would they go and buy from an exchange?
Something is cooking, for sure... but donno what.
Instant and guaranteed coins 24/7?
OTC won't exactly spring into action at midnight on a Saturday. They're all out ruining their septums.
Yes but.... I would think institutional investors would go directly to the big hodlers (10.000-100.000BTC) to buy directly from them.... Not go and buy from exchanges in the middle of a fucking weekend to crazily pump the price.
Are big hodlers really going to sell now ?
edit : Maybe yes, if they want to increase their stash by trading. Selling an exponential rise is the only way to do that (and get back in when prices settle down)
239.
Post 51004585 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.45h):
7300$
Any predictions where the price will stop growing?
Investors will fall to the FOMO soon.
No, but a pullback to 6200 would be very likely in the medium term, in order to test support. That gives a 15% edge from here, to increase a traders stash.
Of course could go higher than $7300, but the low 6k's will need a test of some kind, sometime. A quick look at the chart shows how much work was done with 6k as a base.
This run is in a very short timeframe.
240.
Post 51016624 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.45h):
On the bright side of things we need to get a small number of 25-30ish percent corrections under our belt as we march to 100k, so if we get the first one here then that is some serious progress. Really looking forward to the crash from 25k to 17.5k
25-30% from 7400 is around 5000.
There may be some good support at 6k, but if that fails then 5k is a good level to build from. Time is in some ways more important than price. Support levels are created through trade and time spent at a particular level.
I am hopeful that 6k will hold, but 5k would not be so bad. Although I don't trade, I would think it prudent for those who took profits at ~7300 to buy at least half back when it gets to 6300.
241.
Post 51017934 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.45h):
I believe manipulation is in full effect currently as these exchanges are trying to cover their butts to liquidate leveraged shorts that have been stacking. As a result this will extend the length of our current bear market, cause a much faster and harder drop and possibly take us to lows lower than previously expected by even the most bearish of bears. Sleep tight!
Looking at a low later this year of sub 2k ?
Low probability IMV .
242.
Post 51018055 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.45h):
On the bright side of things we need to get a small number of 25-30ish percent corrections under our belt as we march to 100k, so if we get the first one here then that is some serious progress. Really looking forward to the crash from 25k to 17.5k
25-30% from 7400 is around 5000.
There may be some good support at 6k, but if that fails then 5k is a good level to build from. Time is in some ways more important than price. Support levels are created through trade and time spent at a particular level.
I am hopeful that 6k will hold, but 5k would not be so bad. Although I don't trade, I would think it prudent for those who took profits at ~7300 to buy at least half back when it gets to 6300.
Whoaza, Majormax.
Turning into a BIGGER bull than me. hahahahaha
I am not turning into anything. Have always been exactly the same in my views. There is still a possibilty of a sub 2k low this year (see above), but I would put it at maybe 10% now.
I believed the bull was over, and we had entered a bear market when I posted in Jan 2018 , and I now believe that the balance of probabilities is that bear market is ending.
As I said back in Feb 2018, a Bear low of 2k to 3k would seem about right.
edit : but I trust you will put me right if you believe I'm changing !
243.
Post 51019630 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.45h):
I stand by my statement, too, and I had asserted that you had predicted too early.... even though you ended up being correct... so nothing wrong with either of that.
We are at least seeming to agree, currently, that signs of UP are looking much better now than they had been, in any event.
Spot on...
and thanks, I do actually value your type of critique !
244.
Post 51021560 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.45h):
Actually, we would be quite lucky if BTC prices were to rise to $20k within the next 365 days.... More likely scenarios would be at least over 500 days.
I would love to be proven wrong, but it seems quite fantastical and pie in the sky for anyone to be seriously expecting the BTC price to go up to $20k in 45 days, absent some real fantastical and unexpected developments.
This is really obvious to anyone with a bit of logical thought.
Of course predictions cannot be certain, but the probabilities of these more extreme bullish pronouncements are very small.
I suppose it is one reason why so many ppl will always fail at trading : they get caught-up in manias and buy/sell at the wrong moment..... but it is comforting to have these flights of fancy !
245.
Post 51025679 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
.....
You're comment reminded me of a conversation I had with a no-coiner a few summers back. He was certainly a negative nancy to all my comments about bitcoin. Finally it came down to me asking him "so would you ever consider buying some bitcoin?", to which he replied "yes, but not until it has become commonplace, and less volatile."
And so I says, that may not happen until it has reached $ 1 million, are you sure you'd wait until then? And his response was "yes". ...
He may have been serious, or maybe just spiteful, its tough to say. The best analysis I have of this is to compare it to the invention of the telephone. There are some that would buy it right away, to have the newest thing, and then there are some that would wait until everyone has a phone before buying it, because why would you own it if hardly anyone you knew had one. I realize the differences between these two inventions, but I'm just trying to rationalize of waiting to buy bitcoin at $ 1 million.
It might just be that some are happy to wait until it becomes a household item like a telephone, or a teapot, and they have no interest in making extra money on its path to that end.
I would say his responses are more indicative of his fear of loss as well as need to stay with the herd.
Many people exhibit this irrational response to a highly speculative investment. They are not willing to risk any small loss, even for the prospect of a very large gain. 'Safety' in that type of view, is worth more than any potential reward from a gamble.
246.
Post 51041617 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
Barry Silbert saying he hears 60 minutes is doing a big piece on Bitcoin this week.
Well, that's the end of this rally then. It was good while it lasted.
The memory of it will keep hodlers warm for a few months !
247.
Post 51041819 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
April 1st: $4100
Now: $8200+
That escalated rather quickly.
2x in 6 weeks? hm.... when real fomo is here we will do 2x in one week....
True... but we don't want to get there too quickly, because it will be the end of the Bull Market. Smaller steadier rises have longevity.
The accelerating moves always happen at the end, and are followed by long downtrends.
248.
Post 51052963 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
I expect a denial of service of bitcointalk.org soon.
When the site bogs down, it is merely Eternal September. A mere sign that retail FOMO has started.
DDOS would be a sign that another exponential run is ending. Unlikely at this point. Corrections, dips, will still be fairly deep and long, which is a good thing.
IMHO the bull market is not fully established yet (only 75% probability), plenty of doubters, not so much FOMO. ..which is also a good thing btw.
249.
Post 51058782 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.46h):
Diversification is about picking the best of each market segment and buying a little of each. It is not about chasing penny stocks.
Portfolio performance is only gained with a range of stocks from each sector. The lower caps will always be more volatile and some will outperform the dominant stock.
We are only talking investment intent and actions here, not fundamental value. Therefore investment is about chasing penny stocks , and medium cap stocks, just as much as big-cap stocks.
The sort of investors we are talking about see cryptos as stocks, so plenty of money will flow into alts, and many will outperform BTC (considering price alone)
250.
Post 51125459 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.47h):
Probably the odds of an ETF approval any time soon, in the coming months or even this year are pretty low.
It seems that the hands of the SEC is going to need to be forced before approval takes place, and if there is some kind of feeling that they are being forced, even by potential competition of some other jurisdiction getting "in" first, then under those circumstances they might approve an ETF.
...
IMO the last thing BTC needs is an ETF. If and when it comes it could be the end of the bull run, like the futures in 2017. Better to keep the uncertainty going for as long as possible.
The trend is becoming better established now . The recent test of 6200 was a positive sign, as I predicted here :
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51004585#msg51004585
251.
Post 51131485 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.47h):
You guys think we will ever see BCash @$4k again within any bullrun? I feel like I lost a fortune by not selling @4k and kept that scam hodling.
You will not find anyone here who thinks that BCH will ever be $4k again ..even if BTC attains even the wildest predictions.
The trend BTC/BCH is very clearly lower.
252.
Post 51135788 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.47h):
Bitcoin moves up and down as a ladder-pattern. Once again, Bitcoin fastly moves above $8000 after its correction to below $7000 days ago. What's next station for bitcoin during this bull run? I guess that in best scenario, when bitcoin gets enough support and momentum, it might moves up around 20 percent from its current price. That means bitcoin might reach somewhere around $9600 or even higher a little bit. Retest the resistance around $10000, why not?
$8600 is the tipping point of the see saw ... if we break through $8600 we can easily see $10K. If we can't push through $8600 I think a retest of $6000 is looking likely.
My own view is that the recent action has now defined a new and firm trading range .. $6200 to $8400. The price could range in there for some time. That would be a positive development for longer term consolidation.
253.
Post 51164296 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.47h):
Regarding SV's latest price action, its safe to say that the majority of SV's market cap value rests on the idea that Wright is Satoshi, and not much else. There was already a bigger block experiment called BCH, and its been steadily falling in price against BTC since December 2017. The market has all but rejected it. There's no logical reason to think the market will suddenly become hungry for an even bigger block experiment given BCH's past performance.
So the value of BSV lies on Wright proving himself to be Satoshi, and not much else. It doesn't have to do with the "tech" as it is admittedly an older version of bitcoin. If you believe Wright is Satoshi, by all means, pile into SV. Let's just not pretend its about exciting new tech or that it isn't a personality-driven coin. BSV did not shoot up not based on its technical merits but because of Wright's actions. One misstep from Wright or ruling not in his favor will have the opposite effect of his recent copyright filing.
Why do you think the value of BSV is linked to Wright being Satoshi ? Isn't it merely a piece of code, like BTC, that will garner its own support/ or not, if it is useful.
254.
Post 51164916 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.47h):
Why do you think the value of BSV is linked to Wright being Satoshi ? Isn't it merely a piece of code, like BTC, that will garner its own support/ or not, if it is useful.
Because the recent price movements are 100% due to the actions of CSW, not anything else. BSV didn't suddenly cut a deal with Apple or Amazon or something. Wright filed a copyright claim, coingeek worded it in a way to make it seem like it proved he was Satoshi, and a bunch of illiterate investors got tricked into believing it.
All crypto is subject to short term manipulation, but long term survival/success is not down to the creator of the code, nor is it linked to speculation/manipulation of price.
If the 'Provably Real' Satoshi were to turn up today, his current-day input would not necessarily be of any greater value than many core developers who are involved on a daily basis.
Probably the best thing BSV has going for it was its Airdrop to a large number of committed Crypto holders.
255.
Post 51180771 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.47h):
$7,550 on Stamp as I type this message.
Would be nice to stop the bleed now to be honest.
It's not really a bleed IMO. This is just the middle of a trading range being established.
Support at 6200 resistance at 8400. Could hold for some time.
I may be wrong, but my reasons for choosing those numbers are the sharp price moves which tested those levels.
A good deal of consolidation is needed, and that will be positive for the longer term picture.
256.
Post 51181205 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.47h):
[
Gives me a chance to continue buying coins too before they become too expensive.
I think that is the right attitude, always. Looks at positives but at the same time avoids disappointment,
It is not easy to be patient, but this way makes it less difficult.
257.
Post 51238102 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.48h):
Bob, I see 0 volume. Are you on the jenkem?
Shh. Patience. Drums in the deep.
EDIT: OK, maybe "wave" and "strap in" was too hyperbolic. Expecting to test $9k in the next few hours.
EDIT2: And to further clarify my gut feeling, once we breach $9k, I expect massive profit-taking, followed by dogs and cats, living together.
EDIT3: My position remains. HODLing and do not intend to divest any further BTC until after the halvening - but not before 2021 - Waiting for Rick to independently retire, and figure out what we want to do with the rest of our life together. Possibly divest BTC to reinvest in 100+ acre real estate/ranch in rural area.
Optimism is good, and the moves here are giving credence to the case that the bull market is establishing itself.
You are quite right that massive profit taking will come, but the level from which it starts is difficult to estimate. The current price wave is unsustainable in the longer trend. A glance at the chart makes this obvious.
If we are to get to a new ATH in the next year or so, a strong pullback would be needed in order to consolidate the overbought positions.
The recent moves have almost broken with the 2014-16 pattern, but that only means that predictability has declined, not that a new roadmap can be put in place.
258.
Post 51248262 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.48h):
still hovering on the levels of the last rise.
this is looking stable, it doenst want to go down
solid level for the next rise
SUMMER OF PUMP 2019 coming
Do you think?
I’d rather we had a slow, steadier rise than last time, at least until we reach the halving.
I’m not in the mood for an unsustainable, parabolic rise now if we’re just going to get a major correction again.
I’ve tried to meticulously plan what I’m going to do this time but I’m not really prepared for any kind of selling, at least mentally, until the end of 2020 at the earliest.
Bitcoin will do what it wants to do though so I guess we must be prepared for all scenarios.
I really think 2021 is the time we’ll see fireworks though in this cycle. I think it’s far too early to expect a new ATH this summer.
a new ATH would be nice before the halvening, between 30k and 70k after that a crash down and then a new rise after the halvening.
Adoption is rising and big players are getting into the game. Infrastructure is being buildt and me might get an ETF this year.
Things are set up for a new wave of adaption.
The price looks quite parabolic but yet not too steep, so things are looking quite good.
Nobody knows, i can just say it feels like it going to do something that nobody is expecting
That scenario is very unlikely, and undesirable IMO. When that sort of parabolic rise ends, another crypto winter is more likely than anything else.
The 2016 chart is more instructive, and that suggests a few pullbacks this year, ending higher but not ATH.
259.
Post 51344337 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.49h):
Was $9K the top for a while? Kind of an ugly failure.....and now price has melted back into the previous range. Never a good sign. Maybe it's time to go back to $6K like masterluc was predicting.
I guess it was an expected correction, similar happened during the last cycle in 2015. You can't just keep going up, up, up, up, up without some pull backs. People take profits, all we’re doing is taking a breather.
Nothing to worry about, it’s maybe time to buy the dip.
Entirely as expected. There were a lot of long positions and bullishness around (probably still are). Needs time and work to consolidate. A few months between 6.5 and 8.5k would not be surprising, and actually quite a positive.
260.
Post 51344435 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.49h):
The correction here will provide a good test. If 6.2k holds, and the range stays above 7k, that's a relatively small retrace for the move.
Only a break of 6k would be bad news . Timeframe July/Sep. In the short run, a return above 8k is likely before any deeper dip.
261.
Post 51356572 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.50h):
Talk of the '100k party' is holding the price back.
Experienced traders know how these things work
262.
Post 51368814 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.50h):
$BTC Pullback Areas
The lowest I see Bitcoin pulling back is the .618 fib ($5404) as any lower would be bearish, IMO
Major confluence w/ previous support/resistance between $6109 to $6814
I'm personally watching for a bounce in this area with major interest near $6400 (VPVR)
https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1136479195394191366/photo/1
Note the timescale on this. Just as important as the levels. The major 6200 area could take until November to resolve. Returning to current levels by year end would be very positive.
I think 5400 unlikely, but if there is a return to this range, then it will be into 2020 before the uptrend resumes in earnest. 5400-6400 is also less likely to be a long trading range, because halving will be looming by then.
263.
Post 51517065 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.51h):
I've been preparing myself mentally for 8000.
I mean, there
has to be a real pullback at
some point to establish a higher low...right?
Perfect logic, yes.
Just 3 months ago, $8000 would have been considered by many ppl an unlikely dream so soon, so going back there is fine.. (even $7k is a 'very high' low)
264.
Post 51554521 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.52h):
I cant fucking believe 3 years ago i was wetting my pants on the idea that we would break 1200 $ lol
The return to over $1000 was a major, major deal. I remember my cockles warming up rapidly when it happened. That felt like a humongously longer haul than this.
...it was by about 12 months longer.
Either we're in for one hell of a hangover and sideways melancholy for partying too soon ... or this is the beginning of a bull run party the likes of which bitcoiners haven't yet witnessed ... we could bull on until late 2021 ...
Could be one or the other, but more likely something in between, as always.
Any correction needs to be just enough to restore the uncertainty of the rise.
265.
Post 51554596 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.52h):
...it was by about 12 months longer.
Either we're in for one hell of a hangover and sideways melancholy for partying too soon ... or this is the beginning of a bull run party the likes of which bitcoiners haven't yet witnessed ... we could bull on until late 2021 ...
It felt like 12 years longer.
I'm down with a lengthy consolidation but maybe there's too much appetite for now. I wonder what the next couple of years holds.
Perhaps we're too hung up on this psychological barrier. Still 50% down on the high.
Yes. 10k is not so significant, but still acts as a magnet for sentiment. Price is likely to oscillate around 10k in preference to another level.
At some point of course, a lengthy consolidation or correction will set in. Picking the levels of support might not be that easy, but picking the timing is much more difficult.
266.
Post 51578145 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.52h):
We are at Dec 3, 2017´s price... 12 days later we were at ATH.
Based on the above we could be in the next bear market within a month.
That is a very good observation. The exponential rise we are in at present is just the sort of move that ends a bull run, and starts a long bear market.
However, comparisons with Dec 2017 are invalid for a number of reasons.
My own observation is that the medium-term chart looks strange compared with 2015-6. Price has significantly deviated from the nice steady early stage bull market of the first few months of the year, and now resembles a late-stage bull run. However, that is not to say that there couldn't be other developments.
That makes for a greater unpredictability.
267.
Post 51578164 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.52h):
I can only dream of a couple more weeks of bull run, and then ETH approval (or something like that).. The honey badger will fly
I don't approve ETH. That's a shitcoin.
Its a shitcoin that i sold tons @10 usd
If you sold a lot at $10, when did you buy them originally ? $10 was an early stage price.
268.
Post 51578232 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.52h):
I mined many ETH blocks.. Ahh memories of the AMD 7950s humming in the garage...
Ah, OK. In that case , Well Done ! It is of course difficult to time these things.
269.
Post 51606704 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.53h):
Ok who got greedy and opened a 100x leveraged long at 12900
For all the newbs out there, buy and hodl is the way, do not use leverage on parabolic pamps.
Good advice. Any parabolic rise will shake out weak hands with quick dips which harvest the stops. The ultimate top tick is not predictable, and not achievable on a sell either.
I do not trade myself , but it is interesting to follow the price moves without the attached emotion.
Easier for a trader to go bust on a parabolic rise, than in a grinding bear market.
270.
Post 51621187 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.53h):
So how low do you guys think we'll go?
I don't think it should get much lower from here but maybe we could see a similar pattern of 2016 june
I'm thinking lower $9ks would be reasonable, but bitcoin does not tend to be reasonable. except when she wants to be, which again seems to be rare.
Could be. The recent parabolic rise looks like it is now ending. It went a lot higher than most expected in such a short time frame. A normal retracement would give a target in the region of 7-9k, leaving the bull case intact. ...could take around 3-4 weeks to get there. The alternative is increasing volatility and a quick return to new highs. Whatever happens , a lot of speculators will get burned when the rise ends, and it takes time to flush their left-over effects out of the market.
Still a conjecture until the next few days plays out.
271.
Post 51642089 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.53h):
An update on how we are tracking against 2014/15. We remain well ahead of schedule at approximately the target price for the halvening (May 2020 price target).
Going by that chart, it seems the trendline is at $7-8k at the end of this year.
The big question is : Do we say that a fall-back of $3000 is to be expected, and nothing to worry about, or do we revise expectations upwards ?
It seems likely there is a completely different pattern, which is not all good, because it is now more unpredictable.
272.
Post 51679151 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.54h):
The resistance is broken, hope 9500 holds. Just like 2017, after the massive run, now begins the fall. Think this correction is gonna last a few weeks. Who's selling off in this dip? Let's see what is the bottom line this time.
It is the shape of the rise recently ended that is dictating the form of the fall. It was an exponential, or parabolic rise, which <always> ends in a crash.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51578145#msg51578145Now the top is clear at 13.5k, a normal retracement would be 50%, 61% or 85%. The 85% is unlikely because that would be another crypto winter (and recovery might be years in coming).
50% gives a target of just below 7k, and that would be consistent with the long term support.
It was unfortunate that the price went too far, too fast.
It's a low probability, but, <if> the price bounces from a higher level, and quickly returns to new highs, that would negate the bear case (and would actually be a very bullish scenario)
273.
Post 51703629 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.54h):
.....
Actually, the piece itself was good enough to make me ask a specific question expecting a detailed reply - namely, what is meant by "general public". We aren't all Bertha.
Pretty standard investment regulation... Derivatives of complex/risky instruments are limited to knowledgable ( 'professional' ) traders only. This is already the rule on many trading platforms, it will just be extended gradually to the more regulated Crypto exchanges.
274.
Post 51723132 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.54h):
Boy, this post is from Jun 2019, not Dec 2107, but the feeling are the same.
So, we are now at the top then ? Hopefully not another 85% decline, like after Dec 2017 !
275.
Post 51783155 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.55h):
...
You can play bitcoin investment matters however you like but it seems like a decently postured asymmetric bet .....
It has always been an asymetric bet.....but that understanding comes with recognition that it is a bet, and thus has a finite probability of failure.
Going to our probability calculations, I now estimate a 65% chance we are in a bull market. The latest rally ironically reduced that probability, because it deviated so much from the previous shallow waves.
The move to 13.5k can either be seen as a demonstration of relative strength, or as a failed parabolic rally in a bear market, which is a much more bearish signal.
So, bull market 65%, bear market 35%. My breakdown of that :
New AYH within weeks 25%, bounce from support (at $6.5k, $8.5k) 15%, extended sideways consolidation 25%.
Slow grind down from here to below $3k 20%, dump followed by pump to a lower high 10%, crash to deep lows (sub 2k) 5%.
276.
Post 51783303 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.55h):
Slow grind down from here to below $3k 20%, dump followed by pump to a lower high 10%, crash to deep lows (sub 2k) 5%.
LOL. We are less than 12 months to the halvening bro. Those days are past.
You can see the last 6 weeks' move as a confirmation of that sentiment, and that is how we would all prefer to read it (and also has the higher probability of being correct).
edit : Convincingly and quickly regaining the AYH above 14k would be the super-bullish sign.
277.
Post 51795096 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.55h):
...
You can play bitcoin investment matters however you like but it seems like a decently postured asymmetric bet .....
It has always been an asymetric bet.....but that understanding comes with recognition that it is a bet, and thus has a finite probability of failure.
Going to our probability calculations, I now estimate a 65% chance we are in a bull market. The latest rally ironically reduced that probability, because it deviated so much from the previous shallow waves.
The move to 13.5k can either be seen as a demonstration of relative strength, or as a failed parabolic rally in a bear market, which is a much more bearish signal.
So, bull market 65%, bear market 35%. My breakdown of that :
New AYH within weeks 25%, bounce from support (at $6.5k, $8.5k) 15%, extended sideways consolidation 25%.
Slow grind down from here to below $3k 20%, dump followed by pump to a lower high 10%, crash to deep lows (sub 2k) 5%.
Those percentages are likely not a whole hell of a lot different from my own, but I don't think that we bounce around from bull to bear to bull so easily, but I agree that sometimes it can be a bit difficult to know exactly what we are in, so it might not be that we are bouncing around but just not sure about where we are at.
Anyhow, pretty much after we broke above $4,200 on April 1 and then we went to $6k ish and largely stayed UP for a considerable amount of time, that caused me to conclude, at first tentatively, that we had returned to the bull market. So going back to a bear market would require a decent amount of down for a decent amount of time, otherwise we are merely in a correction of a bullmarket.
So seems to be one of my criticisms of you, majormax, in that you are wanting to pull the bear trigger too quickly, from my assessment.
I find it bullish as fuck that our correction from $13,880 has only been down to $9,614... so damned.. seems to be bullish to me, even if there seem to be some difficulties getting back above $13k and staying there... Could take a few more days, or it could take a month or two to get back above $13,880, but that still seems to be bullish to me, as long as we don't drop below $7k. If we drop below $7k, then at that point, we can start talking about the possibility of bearish.. and even that would not necessarily be a given bearish, depending on context.
OK, fair analysis, I think. Yes, the market is now/still in bull mode, until confirmed otherwise. My posts are usually trying to remind everyone (myself included !) that there are different possible directions at every point in the market ....no matter how sure an observer may be, there are constant surprises.
I think I am also liable to appear open to bear interpretation :
1. As a devils advocate to the perceived bullish consensus.
2. To avoid disappointment .
3. To remind us that patience is required.
I do agree that the action since 13.8k can be interpreted as bullish (although I'm presenting the possible alternative as well).
The level of 13.8k is very important, because, as it was reached in an exponential spike, it forms very strong overhead resistance. A decisive breach of 13.8 is less likely in the short term now.
However, if price did move strongly above that , it would indeed be the super-bullish signal.
I am attempting (maybe not succeeding) to present a view which is neither bullish nor bearish. The market is neither of those until proven/confirmed.
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Post 51823517 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.55h):
For a long time now, I've had the plan to buy a new car for 1 Bitcoin.
Since Bitcoin is totally moving moving in the wrong direction, I washed my car today
Can I get a summary of the reason for this drop in price? I read some theories about Trump posting something on Twitter, but do people still listen to billionaires who have a huge interest in conventional dollars to protect?
It's never fundamental reasons, only technicals. That's why ppl find market moves so confusing, and all markets have always been this way (for a century at least) .
Support needs to be tested and marked out. On BTC that could be 9k or could be 6.5k. Won't know until any rally is well underway.
I myself believe it could take until end of 2019 to resolve, but time will tell.
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Post 51849463 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.56h):
What does the 2017 vs 2019 one look like now?
Irrelevant.
It's normally a four year cycle, so we aren't in 2017, but we might be rhyming with 2015...
Not now rhyming with 2015. That one has been broken.
It might be good news, but as I said before a few months ago, a too-strong rally at this stage might be bad news for the future. The reason is that exponential rises always trap a lot of late buyers at various levels on the way up, and it often means they are shaken out over a long bear phase. The shape of the chart puts new interim lows back on the map , and could delay any future ATH by some time.
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Post 51849501 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.56h):
...
Of course, if BTC prices were to get into the sub $5k arena, then I am surely going to have to consider whether I need to restructure some of my lower buy orders in order that I do not run out of money for buying... .. sub $5k does seem a bit unlikely but you never know.
There is some good support at 6.4k , so sub 5k is not likely (and at least not until the middle of next year).
If it gets under 5K , probably best to not look for a year or two. That would be the return of winter.
Hopefully new support levels can be gradually built up in the next month or so. A new support above 7k would be a positive. Time will tell.
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Post 51928860 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.56h):
Better to have a ''steady'' market than random 10% changes. I personally think Bitcoin is holding really well and this was in fact a really healthy correction after quite an unhealthy move, 4k to 14k in 3 months? Clearly needed a big correction, it is better this way, we were getting close to a similar early 2018 situation.
4k to 14k in 3 months is indeed unhealthy. But so is 20k to 6k in a few months.
Many of the biggest stated misgivings were often about excessive price volatility. If price stayed around (+/-5%) 10k until 2021, might that improve adoption ?
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Post 51932217 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.56h):
Just bought ze dip. (4 digits, couldn't resist) As I said I wouldn't be surprised if this goes to $7.5k or even below $7k for a short moment before making the huge jump.
Simiar events happened before the $20k ATH. 200DMA is the real solid support here. 50DMA is not.
Yes, good support at 6.5 to 7.5k. It has not been properly tested yet. The parabolic top spoiled the steady rise, and needs a lot more time and work to allow the MA's to catch up.
A drop to 7.5 and steady recovery into year end would still be a very positive result for 2019.
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Post 51932866 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.56h):
It doesn't need to be tested, it is just among the possibilities. Unless the price stays under the 200DMA for a considerable amount of time, it will be bullish.
See that chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DL4HQwBW/As long as the orange line looks upwards, we are fine. (sideways is fine too but i would start to worry at that point)
Exactly so. The strength of any move can be fully seen in hindsight, by looking at the response to support/resistance levels. Parabolic moves are generally bad in that they interrupt steady progress (or completely end bull markets). Assuming that the bull move is still intact , the speculative effects of the spike need to be worked-off before a rise can resume. It is just as much a function of time as of price.
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Post 51968601 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.57h):
Sorry to be bearish gents but I think we wont bottom this summer till we get to about 4900.
I'm going to assume you mean 9400.
Not 9400 , he certainly meant lower. I would think 6400 rather than 4900, but its just an opinion.
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Post 52035559 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.57h):
[
You don't have to play the whole stock market, and to increase leverage, you can use puts/calls.
Bitcoin itself trades more like an option (on a new financial system, I guess).
Trading options on stocks/indices is a 90% sure fire loser over the long term. It was similar even 30 years ago when the market was human traded (mostly), but it is far more so now.
The reason is that options have an expiry date. The 'market' will always conspire to extract the greatest amount from holders of options at expiry. The vast majority of traders still hold to expiry, and always will. For instruments with no expiry date, the market imposes a time holding cost (above and beyond the price of initial purchase).
There would be no market at all if this were not the case, because the expiries and holding costs are what fund the costs and profits of the market makers/whole financial machine/industry.
BTC (like gold ) could be called an option , but it is without expiry date and holding cost.
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Post 52074495 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.58h):
During the winter of 2019 I was mentally preparing for 10K sometime around Dec 2020. I wouldn't give even a 1% chance to stay above 10K in the Summer of this year. For >20K It didn't even cross my mind it was possible this year. But here we are - nearly 12K for the 3rd or 4th time this Summer. With that pace we will be >20K way too soon than most of us expected.
I've read multiple times by newbies in this thread that the 2017 run can not be repeated because then Bitcoin was in the news all over the world and that caused the run. This is BS! This happened in late November and early December when we were already around 10K. Do you think that many peeps that heard about Bitcoin, say in 1. Dec 2107 registered in some exchange and bought by 15Dec? No! I know thousands of people because of my occupation and I must tell that not even 0.1% of them bought bitcoins. On the contrary, because of their ignorance some of them bought the leading 3 shitcoins which names I don't want to write. Why - because they looked cheaper from a few dollars to several thousands (never heard of a market cap, n00bs). Now each of them changed their mind and regrets for not buying at 3K. I encourage them not to wait anymore but to act decisevly and invest now.
TD;LR What happens now is a natural growth because of the lack of supply. The average Joe is much more informed now and prefers to buy and hodl and not to gamble on exchanges. There are some psycological barriers like 20K, 50K, etc. but with time each of them will fall. 286 days before the halving and nothing to be afraid of. Buy and hodl!
IMV 14k is the real key resistance. Fair chance that will hold into 2020. The reason is because the exponential spike failed just below 14k, and these runs always create hard overhead resistance. The flipside to that is, if 14k is decisively broken soon, it shows there is a lot of relative strength....and 20k is next stop.
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Post 52074558 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.58h):
I think it is very brave to bet on $14k holding until 2020. Five months is a hell of a long time in Bitcoin.
Not betting on it, I don't make predictions, but that's where the resistance is. My philosophy is always to treat future prices/events as a probability range. I always take note of other opinions.
The 14k overhead would normally take a lot of work to break through. In the event it happens quickly, that's an extra-bullish sign.
Yes, you're right 5 months is a long time in the markets especially BTC.
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Post 52077314 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.58h):
I am more interested in the price zone between $15k and $17.5k. Let's see how that zone does? We need an observational study of that zone.
Hate to (partially) disagree, but I think that zone wont last long on the first (sorry, actually second) visit. As I said before, the resistance at 14k is so strong that price will either stay below for months, or break out and make a quick run for the ATH.
However, it is after the 20k is challenged that any support in the 14k to 20k zone could be formed.
I do admit that the technicals can be outweighed by events, especially in times of economic turmoil, but they will always have their effect. It's rather like statistics, there can always be another adjustment for factors which were not apparent in the original data.
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Post 52105549 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.58h):
Go thru a 7000 to 8000 $ valley first. Seems logic (for what it is worth in this world).
Quite possible.
The most obvious inference from the chart is that price moved too soon, and MA's need to catch up. That is confirmed even if you go back further, to 2011 say.
To follow a smooth trajectory, price needs to have been around 7k now. It is unclear whether the catch up can occur by means of a deeper correction, or a quiet extended range for a few months.
The third way is for a steeper bull run, but this seems unlikely because logically, and observably, the long cycles are extending and smoothing as adoption proceeds.
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Post 52105614 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.58h):
Go thru a 7000 to 8000 $ valley first. Seems logic (for what it is worth in this world).
Quite possible.
No son, not possible.
No logic in your thought valley.
Sorry.
Everything can be resolved to probabilities.
'Not probable' is what you meant to say.
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Post 52200801 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.59h):
You seem a bit confused sir.
Money can be printed without inflationary consequences.*
That money can be used to finance the creation of new assets, such as a lovely freshly mined gold bar. Or an iPhone if you prefer.
The total global pool of assets has just increased.
Wealth, from nowhere.
*If you happen to be the global reserve currency.
Surely you don't define wealth as money ? In the scenario you describe, only money is created. Money = debt. It just marks-up the ledger with additional/other debtors and creditors.
( Apologies if you meant /s )
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Post 52200858 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.59h):
Does the creation of money increase wealth ? Here is a way of seeing it :
Money is a ledger entry. It defines and creates debtors and creditors. The newly created debtors have an incentive* to use their assets (labour etc) to produce real things, or wealth, but the money itself, even gold, does not create the wealth.
*The incentive is to work to rebalance the ledger again (get back money for themselves), and the new creditors have some power to direct those efforts.
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Post 52203466 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.59h):
For example, it seems that if I had some meaningful inclinations that the BTC price was going to go down before it goes up, I could describe my feelings, and it seems that I already have.
Several weeks ago, I said that I would not be surprised if BTC corrected below $7k, especially after we had peaked at $13,880 in such a short period of time. I cannot recall anyone with any serious credibility around here questioning my BTC bullishness, and I also felt NO need to assert my long term bullish qualifications.
That's the thing Jiggy, when someone makes a bullish post - there are no disputes or confrontations - ever.
On the other hand if a member (non-legendary usually) makes a bearish remark, he can find himself been accused of lying, manipulating or trying to influence newbies, & even as far as trying to discredit other members that might have the same opinion. That's what serveria did, and that's why I felt that I had to explain myself. Also that's why he is a liar in my book.
In any other case, of course there is
no need to explain anything regarding an opinion/position.
From long experience of markets, I have noted that this sort of balance (where there is excessive critique of bearish opinion) is invariably a significantly bearish sign for the stock/market involved.
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Post 52210028 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.59h):
So to be honest I would not be surprised to see a few alts go up with BTC. But not so much that BTC dominance goes way under 50%
Yes.. that would entail some alts way outstripping BTC on % rises. With 50% dominance, 20% rise in BTC infers some better performing alts multiplying up (and that's assuming its the bigger ones). I think that very unlikely.
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Post 52344392 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.00h):
Also, I have held a kind of tentative theory that alt coins are going to get another pump, along with bitcoin....
That is a widely held belief amongst alt hodlers/traders. However, there is an older, and even more widely held view, that there is ultimately only room for a handful (or one dominant) long term globally adopted crypto.
That means that all the losers are on a long road to oblivion. This alt bear market is one stage on that road. It is simply natural selection.
A hope for another pump is all that is left. Interestingly, that chimes with investors' behaviour in stock investments. They invariably hold losers to zero, hoping for 'one chance' to get out.
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Post 52487158 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.01h):
Likely a lot of luck in there.
None of us should get sucked into the trap of deifying posters into sorcerers.
Remember how revered Vinnie Lingham was in 2015/16 and how he squandered such reputation in early 2017? - but probably only after a decent number of folks got R3ckt by selling because they actually relied on his bullshit early 2017 propositions that bitcoin was going below $500.
Yes, there is nearly always someone who gets all 7 lottery numbers correct.
BTW, this particular forecaster was 100% wrong on the dominance figure. It has trended strongly in the opposite direction from his forecast.
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Post 52540434 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.02h):
Current news about Googles Quantum Computer may be weighing on Crypto.
By 2021 , it is theorized that 256 bit encryption could be cracked by quantum computing.
##https://interestingengineering.com/google-says-that-they-have-just-reached-quantum-supremacy
Although Quantum Computing has a tangential application set to classical computing, the current breakthrough by Google indicates things could change ... uncertain.
This is worth keeping an eye on, because it could become an existential threat to encryption.
I have read some discussion about this previously, and I believe that SHA256 hashing is not affected (by quantum calculations) in the same way as 256 bit encryption.
...might just cause a dip in prices for now.
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Post 52551432 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.02h):
currently fighting at the 50% fibo level. should not go below 72xx (61.8% fibo) otherwise we have a seroius issue.
As expected, this is the reaction to the premature parabolic high. I never liked that one.
Critical to test support now.
There may be a bigger problem, signalled by the collapse in hash rate, but that remains to be seen.
299.
Post 52567790 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.03h):
I think one huge red dildo down to high 6ks with mega volume and a lot of beautiful bottom memes could end this and restart the bull run into the halving. I like how fast this is happening. Much better than a slow drip.
Whales know because of the halving they dont have much time to cause max pain to newbs, weak hands, and get rich quick pumpers so whatever the bottom is (Id guess 6800 rn if I had to) I expect it to materialize quickly(30 days max).
TLDR: if you need to move fiat to exchanges to take advantage of rock bottom prices, do it pronto.
Agree with most of that.
The support at 6-7k needs a proper test.
No outcome is certain, of course, but this dip has a much better feel to it. I was really uncomfortable with the move up to 14k in July. Without that, I think BTC could have been steadily rising through 10k right now.
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Post 52588051 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.03h):
Seeing the PlanB tweet:
and reviewing "The Shorts" gives me some peace of mind that they are closing them, it can be an indication of a tenuous lateralization or market recovery.
I am not sure why would the green phase be so abortive in this bull run.
In 2016-2017 it lasted for more than a year.
In other words: I doubt that we are in the "orange" stage, but who knows.
Maybe, we are front-running the whole trend while we were behind the "true" trend in 2015-2016.
The pattern this year breaks with previous years, so it's not relevant. The problem was the exponential spike to 13k+ ..these sort of spikes always end bull runs.
A quick resumption of the bull phase is a lot less likely now (not impossible of course). On balance, either there is a new bear market atm, or the recovery is going to be slow. I haven't seen anything to change my opinion of early July, when price was 11k+ .
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51679151#msg51679151
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Post 52588093 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.03h):
Comparing with previous years charts is now a more precarious business, because there is now a new pattern emerging, unlike most previous phases.
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Post 52601754 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.03h):
1.We broke down 3-months consolidation and 200DMA -> I am assuming bear market till proven wrong.
2.With #1, it means $btc bull market failed to break previous ATH for the 1st time -> I am going to assume the first MACRO-BEAR market!
current plan is to watch the 200DMA retest and quite likely short it. (depending on the tape)
The most ominous sign is the failure of the exponential rally in June/July, and the fact that the price has followed through downwards since.
In classical TA, this is sign of a full-blown bear market. An parabolic rally to new highs always ends a bull run, and price takes a lot of time to recover. However a parabolic failure which doesn't get to the previous high is much worse. I hesitate to call it so, partly because I don't like that idea, and partly because we all can claim BTC is somewhat peculiar compared with other assets.
However, the evidence is plain, and a real price failure is now a significant possibilty.
303.
Post 52601770 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.03h):
Do you think BTC would end the year at around the $10,000 mark?
I still think we're gonna see an ATH this year, December probably....
I think that was /s, but I think even 10k by year end is most unlikely.
304.
Post 52601831 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.03h):
The long term bull market in BTC is under real threat. A key point will come after a test of the 6.5k support. That may take a few more months.
With the halving approaching, if price cannot rally to a new high next year, the whole game will have changed.
Jury is still out on it, but there are warning signs of a negative verdict.
305.
Post 52601856 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.03h):
Bottom might be in, new guys start talking about macro bear etc
That is one positive sign , yes. But there are a lot of negatives. We will have to wait for more indicators, and see price activity.
306.
Post 52602003 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.03h):
Bottom might be in, new guys start talking about macro bear etc
That is one positive sign , yes. But there are a lot of negatives. We will have to wait for more indicators, and see price activity.
Yeah, also I never really call a bottom cause I might be wrong with guessing 95% of the time
My only guess is long term succes and all my bets are made on that one call....
That is the best way. Many of the most successful people had one really good plan, and stuck with it (the core of it at least). Trying to second-guess everything leads to stress, and you can actually out-think youself into failure.
There is no guarantee either way, but it is actually worse to be right long term and not be committed, than to be committed and be wrong.
Another way of looking at things, is that BTC price is a forward indicator. In that case, it is signalling a deflationary economic environment in the medium future (which would be very bad for the whole economy) but holders of the right assets will lose less. Bond prices are also chiming with this possibility. I must admit, I really don't like it , because inflation is on balance the less painful alternative ( or at least causes less shocks to the fabric of society).
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Post 52820187 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
I think it's time to take off, there have been many Bitcoins moves towards some exchanges, Binance, Bitfinex ... that bullish momentum is needed to put this more exciting.
Source:
@CryptoDingueThe next movements may be looking for new offer levels of $ 8k and up.
I don't like the look of that chart . The last 8 months is too similar to Aug 2017 to Feb 2018, and suggests a new leg down to sub 3k., rather than upside.
Better scrub that and try a more positive analysis.
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Post 52826375 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
I still think that we are still in a kind of late 2015 to early 2016 period... still waiting for the May 2016 breakout.
We already had our October/November 2015 break out, and that was when we broke up to $13,880. Of course, no two breakouts or chart patterns are going to look alike, but still Majormax, you should at least be attempting to compare the correct areas of the fractal. AmiNOTrite?
Yes absolutely... Please show me which are the correct areas on that particular chart.
309.
Post 52834129 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
I still think that we are still in a kind of late 2015 to early 2016 period... still waiting for the May 2016 breakout.
We already had our October/November 2015 break out, and that was when we broke up to $13,880. Of course, no two breakouts or chart patterns are going to look alike, but still Majormax, you should at least be attempting to compare the correct areas of the fractal. AmiNOTrite?
Yes absolutely... Please show me which are the correct areas on that particular chart.
Unless I read your post incorrectly, I was only trying to suggest that your earlier comment seemed to have been suggesting that we are in an August 2017-like scenario currently. So, I thought that was a wrong assumption. Again, maybe I misunderstood your earlier post, but that was why I was trying to suggest that it seems that we are still in early 2016 - and I am not even trying to suggest where we go from here... except maybe up in the next few years ... without any real presumption about whether more correction might happen from where we are right now.
Not Aug'17 scenario, but Feb '18, the shape of a decline from a peak. I am only responding to the chart that was posted. The analysis (not mine) was apparently that the action of the last 6 months was comparable to some other period (fractal) and suggestion was that it portended a rise. Well, all I could see from that chart was a similarity (in chart shape, which is what a fractal is) , between the last 6 months and Aug 2017 to Feb 2018. I don't really understand the poster's assertion.
On another point, the 60-85% decline from a parabolic peak does not need to be from an ATH. The danger I was going on and on about in Jun and ever since, was that a parabolic move failed at 13500 approx. That is nearly always bad news, holding price back for longer in a bull market , or leading to the next downphase in a bear market.
On balance I still believe we are in a longer bull phase, but it is unwise to entirely dismiss alternative scenarios (or call them 'impossible'). The chart has issued this warning. It would be more positive if the present price of ~8k had been arrived at by a steady rise May thru October, rather than the too-fast failed attempt at 14k. As it is , the chart now shows a distinct falling trend from July. That is merely observation.
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Post 52834171 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
Charts can be dismissed as so much claptrap of course, but if we are going to analyse them, may as well do it properly.
In the end, if anyone doesn't like the conclusion of chart analysis, they can say these things don't apply to BTC. Just pick a number out of the air.
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Post 52848505 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
Nothing is guaranteed. Probable.
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Post 52848639 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
Personally, I'm guessing it's a macro reversal. We need to start slow grinding up to the previous ATH over the next ~6 months or history won't repeat itself like the world is expecting.
Quite right.. Only the slow grind up can lead to another ATH. Price is in a falling medium term trend atm.
313.
Post 52848782 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
I agree. Fuck the charts, unless they say something that I like.
That is the position that the majority of investors take. Confirmatory bias. You can see it in this board, you can see it everywhere.
In general investing, it always causes speculators large losses eventually. In BTC it has only been different because the long term trend was/is so exponetially strong. Merely an act of faith to hodl. In that sense, all trading/walls/charts/opinions are merely a distraction while waiting for the next leg up. (You , among others, provide a lot of words and are a great distraction ! ).
I see my role as pointing out that nothing is 100% certain, even the survival of BTC.
I have been reading charts a very long time and they are not difficult to understand. IMO they do not definitively predict the future but do provide a reference to the probability scale (of which I know you are a fan).
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Post 52857370 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
^^
I just don't believe or have to much faith in TA's they are like a newspaper fun to read and look at but +90% bullsh*t .....
..
Well TA worked for the last few months on BTC , much to many peoples surprise.
The failure at 13500 was an very obvious opening of a long bear phase. No bottom has been formed yet, so its still in a downtrend...
..unless you think that the developments in quantum computing are weighing on price, I would say it's a pure technical move.
You are correct that TA is useless, unless you are a medium term trader.
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Post 52883194 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
I actually don't like this chart since it shows that pretty much every time when there was an outsize move up, it was followed by almost the same %% move down, especially in the first half of the chart. Hopefully, we will be able to escape this here, I hope, or it would be brutal.
These sort of moves are unhealthy, especially without a proper base. A slow grind up is the only way to sustain a move over the longer term.
Many posters will celebrate this sort of pump, only to have their hopes dashed again.
Of course, one should always look at the alternative : that this is the beginning of a long move up, but at this rate, that is a low probability. A new exponential move that fails below 13500 would be very bearish. Only if 14k gets broken decisively, the outlook changes (with a new ath in sights) That looks a very long way off atm.
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Post 52883289 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
At least the current move is in a positive direction. It will be enough if the next swing low forms a new base above 7300.
If this is going to last, I would expect a consolidation through to end of year. Too early to call yet.
317.
Post 52889152 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
...Long way off as in 1 year? That's fine. We can deal with it. Or long way off like 2-3 years? That does not seem too likely.
Seems that once we are approaching 2 years, especially 2 years from right now, we are going to be long into ATHs and maybe even we might be at the end of this particular bull cycle by then. Perhaps? Perhaps? Perhaps we might get a bit front runned this time, who knows? Time will tell, and these little periods of overexcited and irrational exuberance surely shows both the power of king daddy and also that we are in early days and experiencing a bit of an underlying battle... that sometimes us mere mortal regular people just have to have enough ability and foresight to HODL through such tramas and maybe even figure out ways to skim a little profits off of the nearly inbred likelihood that we are going to have ongoing volatility including sometimes extreme short period outbursts. .....
.
Yes, that is around the sort of timescale I had in mind. I am really just helping to manage expectations so that ppl are not too disappointed.
Firstly, we have accepted that BTC can behave anyway at all, but then it's pointless trying to make some sense of a chart. The WO board is purposeless if everyone is just hodling for ever.
I am saying that IF BTC were a stock/commodity/price in the standard investing world, then the price chart/fractals/shapes are saying x y and z. This actually seems to work for 90% of the time , but very occasionally, at extended time intervals, there is a sudden supra-normal move.
The recent exceptional spike has pointed out resistance at 10.5k, and, coming below the strong resistance at 13.5k, it is a bearish indicator (in conventional analysis).
Assuming we ignore that analysis on a long (bull forever) view, my conclusion is that it will still be a more extended time before a challenge to the ATH. 1 to 2 years is my rough guess. I know that is going contrary to the halvening theory, so it's a really contrarian call, and I guess I am comfortable being a vilified contrarian.
318.
Post 52889461 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
The recent exceptional spike has pointed out resistance at 10.5k, and, coming below the strong resistance at 13.5k, it is a bearish indicator (in conventional analysis).
I don't know nuttin' 'bout no conventional analysis, so I'll just ask. Does conventional analysis really consider a positive overshoot spike the same as being rebuffed at a resistance level?
No. I would think a positive overshoot (to use that term ) would be making new highs , either above resistance, or ATH.
319.
Post 52889827 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.05h):
The recent exceptional spike has pointed out resistance at 10.5k, and, coming below the strong resistance at 13.5k, it is a bearish indicator (in conventional analysis).
No it's not. Hitting resistance on the way to another resistance isn't bearish. It's expected. Any asset emerging from a downtrend is going to hit resistance on the way up.
Did you really expect to go straight to the $13,000s without stopping?
Fair comment. It is the momentum of the move that is unusual. If 10.5k is tested and broken soon, that is bullish, as with 13.5k. Those levels were reached by strong upward momentum, so do make for higher hurdles.
320.
Post 53027734 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.06h):
Funny how much hopium is built into such a guy that has been pumping his bitcoin is going to zero nonsense since before I had even gotten into bitcoin. He does say that he gets a decent amount of attention for his gold pumpening interactions with the bitcoin community.
Another funny thing is that he frequently says that he should have gotten into bitcoin at $10, when he first heard about it, while following up by saying that "now it is too late" blah blah blah. He has been saying that a lot, and for some reason he seems to continue to fail/refuse to recognize the irony of such an ongoingly dumb statement.
Yes, that's an interesting irony. Peter Schiff is and always has been, a well respected gold permabull cheerleader. He will be seen to be correct now and again, but as far as he views BTC, it detracts from his main asset, and he will take every opportunity to talk the bear case.
Biases aside, that is a very bad long term chart (technically, having marked out a high at 19500 , hard resistance at 13500 and then even more sharply at 10500 : 3 descending tops), as I said at the time. Any chartist worth their salt would be calling a long decline. If it was a stock, it would be a 'short to zero'.
It is well established on this board that we ignore classic chart signals because BTC is 'different', but if Peter Schiff is to properly adhere to his own disciplines, he is consistent and correct.
321.
Post 53146409 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
holy fuck. that was unexpected.
350DMA is dead.
Now we can panic. IT IS TIME TO... PANIC!
It was somewhat expected... Where is the next support level below ?
322.
Post 53153094 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
Told you guys were in the great long-term downtrend. There is no substantial up from here. Yeah, sure, it'll wobble around, but we are definitely witnessing the "slow" death of bitcoin. There is not going to be another all time high. No more sustained above $10k prices anymore. That's in the past. I know it sucks for a lot of you to hear this, but it's just done. Play the market if you want, play a long term low leverage short if you really want to make money, but bitcoin has run it's course. 2 years from now bitcoin will not be above $10k, that's guaranteed.
Hardly guaranteed. There is a lot of uncertainty on a 2 year view, and it is one scenario that BTC may be experiencing slow death, but surely it is not possible to guarantee any particular outcome ?
What is the basis for your view that this is a long term downtrend ?
...and shorts are pretty hazardous, so I can see why you said 'low leverage'.
323.
Post 53153149 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
This is within the odds, and I think they are very high: The level of Bitcoin support could trigger an explosive movement of bulls, if defended.
Maybe, but perhaps not soon. Price is now close to better support. It may take a lot of time around these levels, but at least there is the possibility to pause and stop the medium term downtrend.
324.
Post 53155487 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
When bitcoin is bullish and rising i can be one of the most optimistic nice guys. But when the bitcoin changes the mood i can transform completly into one of the
not so pleasant ones. My girlfriend knows it, my friends, parents, .......they all know how bitcoin is doing when they see me. They don't need any coinmarketcap site or tradingview. Nope. They just look at me and they can read the btc trend from my expression.
That’s actually very bad dude, don’t get driven by emotion......
If you look at the bull/bear markets you get to be in a bad mood for 3-4 years at a time. However, the converse is also true.
325.
Post 53164672 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
Just buy more Bitcoin and you wont be bothered so much when I correctly tell you we are going down more.
All your worry and issues with my downwards calls just show me the truth that you are not invested heavily enough.
I will let you know when the Bargain Boyz arrive, despite your squirming and protests.
Brave call on this board. The trend is down until it's not.
I try not to make the bearish calls much now because I sometimes don't have the energy for the arguments that ensue.
It is interesting that you identify the strength of protest with the degree of bullish commitment. The holy grail of (contrarian) trading was always to find an pure untainted indicator of overall sentiment. When the bulls don't argue with bearish comment anymore, is that when the true bottom is in ?
326.
Post 53164779 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.07h):
...Oh gawd, you are so full of shit.... especially when it comes to your last paragraph.
Harsh way of putting it, but yes, I also don't believe that there is a group that always knows what is going to happen.
This is an interesting argument between 2 eloquent posters, very different in their approaches.
I'm particularly intrigued by Lambie's notion that 100% commitment is needed for freedom from worry about price. In one way it makes sense, but its difficult to accept.
327.
Post 53173902 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.08h):
Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term
Posted 10 days ago.
I was talking about this 6.4k price, not surprised at all we went towards this price, thought it would be in December though.
Quite confident there is a bounce back from there though. It is a major and strong support.
Yes, I remember this post. The current situation is very ugly, looking more and more like the end of 2018. I would not be surprised if we go to 5.2k to form inverse head and shoulders. Cryptowinter is not over yet. Even 3k (and double bottom) is not impossible.
Yes. It was looking bad after 13500 failed, as I posted at the time. The 10500 failure was even worse, as I also posted.
The loss of 7300, and the way it happened, now leaves open the possibility of a new low for the bear move (3k) sometime in the next year. (This is, of course just chart-reading, which may or may not apply to BTC).
The real test now (and also arguably the biggest test of BTC's life) will be the halvening. If the price does not show very considerable strength in the next year, that would be a sign that the whole game has changed.
Unfortunately, the outcome will take around a year to define . As always, it will be a test of faith, so doubters should sell now (although better during the expected bounce to 7.5k) , and hodlers should find some other diversion for their interest !
328.
Post 53174080 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.08h):
.....since about May, we are still confirmed to be in a bull market, so there could be some fireworks here that people interested in BTC would like to witness... and yeah we could go back down to a bear market, but probably we would need to get down into the sub $5ks and likely even below our April 1 breakout price of $4,200.. which could be a bit of a challenge to get there. NOT impossible, but surely a challenge.
Agree with most of your points.
Just one question : How are we confirmed to be in a bull market ? ( Empirical evidence)
The shape of the chart looks to me like a rally in a bear market. It has that sort of shape, with the rises sharp, and the falls grinding and waterfall-like.
The shape was like a bull market up to June this year, but suddenly everything changed with that spike to 13500.
329.
Post 53174134 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.08h):
We are all attempting a brave technical analysis of the price, but I have to accept that it is difficult to put any real short term meaning into these charts.
The two camps of Technical vs Fundamental analysis are at odds with each other most of the time, as has always been the case with stocks and commodities trading.
330.
Post 53174347 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.08h):
Excellent capitulation by the crowd in here. 5/7.
Hopefully, yes. At least for a short term bottom.
What matters more is how the actual traders are responding. The only indicator of their state of mind is price and volume.
331.
Post 53174425 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.08h):
Excellent capitulation by the crowd in here. 5/7.
Anyhow, I am a bit unclear from where you are getting our capitulation because we are all over the place.. even while maybe a bit resolved that we had reached close to 65% down from our $13,880. What else can be done?
Looking back at the last 5 pages, that's true, a very split opinion. The poll results show that as well.
332.
Post 53312894 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.09h):
I was somewhat inactive during the period 2014-2015 but it is my impression that there were more doom and gloom in comparison to this period. [..]
I concur. Expect for a few desperate moments after the drop to $3,xxx, it has been a cozy winter ride so far.
Can’t say the same for Alts
Agree. There is relatively more optimism around, plus price starts from a higher base. It needs a huge amount more fiat buying to move the price similar %.
I feel there is plenty more room for downside in the next year, but anything is possible.
333.
Post 53374361 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.09h):
This is too out of scale to be a "candid" long position building.
Noticing it started when BAKKT started. Maybe a coincidence?
This is something I will try to look into.
Very intresting.
Opened a thread: this thing is too interesting IMHO:
LONGS on BITFINEX going PARABOLIC If enough of these longs get liquidated, all the hell will brake loose.
They have been building this longs since one months.
Whoever did that has
deep pockets
This is an unprecedented open position, so worth a bit more thought :
Who will be on the short side of this total position ? It cannot be assumed that the larger traders (or whale) are taking the long side. The large trader(s) are working progressively either on the bid side to create a long, or on the offer side to create a short. The circumstantial evidence obviously points to a short side position, because the trades have been at successively lower and lower prices. Think about it.
Usually there is a lot of noise in the market, which will mask the way the open interest has happened, but in this unusual case it is crystal clear.
As to the motivation for the position, or the next step in some plan, anyone have any suggestions ?
The best guess is that this trend will continue for now, prices walking downwards for some time, with regular snap-back rallies.
334.
Post 53374393 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.09h):
I don’t think it works like that. These aren’t futures in the conventional sense.
For a long position on Bitfinex you borrow $US to buy BTC on physical market
For a short position you borrow BTC and sell on physical market.
Someone will quickly correct me if I am wrong.
In that case the BTC will either have to be lent by the counterparty or sold by them. I admit I don't know how Bitfinex works.
Are we saying that Bitfinex itself is therefore acting as the defacto trade counterparty ? That sounds distinctly dodgy.
335.
Post 53430238 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.10h):
She is right at what she is posting latter. But the first post you quoted is really silly. Bitcoin price is so unstable that will be way different next week not just a year from now. The point she is right about is that future trading makes bitcoin more stable. So growths and declines will be less sharp. Both ways will be more stable not just the way up. And that is good, money need to be as stable as can be.
The first serious derivative salvo arrived just at the death of the last bubble and since then it's been a steady decline into poo soup.
She's right to raise the possibility. That's unquestionably where most of the 'institutional investors' will prefer to go, but everything flies out the window if there's proper a bubble on or the sniff of one.
We need all this new guff to be present for another 2-3 complete cycles before its effects can be properly analysed. Until then it's just groping in the dark.
As posters have said, nobody can claim to know for sure, and that includes the most bullish cheerleaders....
So, there is indeed a possibility that BTC does not rise due to the next halving. There have only been 2 halvings so far, way too little for a certain judgment. Price is always dependent on demand first and foremost... supply is important, but it is secondary.
The next bubble, if and when it happens , will have to be a function of a very large amount of fresh capital entering the market. The numbers required are much larger now than in previous bull phases.
336.
Post 53430591 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.10h):
...Cutting production (per block) in half, while cost of production (per block) remains the same, could make mining unprofitable, unless the price rises.
..but it doesn't actually affect the price per se. Mining becomes unprofitable, hashrate falls, difficulty falls. The price drives this action, this action doesn't drive the price. Aggregate demand is always key to price changes, and it dances mainly to other tunes.
337.
Post 53431349 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.10h):
I read your post as being exceedingly cautious, Majormax, and you already likely recognize that I continue to believe that there is a bit more underlying buying pressures than the amount that you seem to be willing to accept present. Furthermore, supply is a pretty damned underlying force, whether you want to categorize it as "secondary" or not... supply is a kind of hard pressure that inevitably ends up biting the bears in the ass.. especially any of them who under estimate its power, after they are manipulating down for much longer and much lower than can be contained and ends up resulting in a lot of irrational and uncontainable upwards FOMO buying... which is likely going to be another history that repeats itself... surely not guaranteed in any kind of way, but a seeming likely outcome... time and degree to be determined.
You are quite right. I think it wise to be cautious.
I wouldn't categorise supply as a 'force', but demand acts more like the pressure. If you had to say which was more active and which more passive, how would you label them ?
Supply is more a variable which is acted upon by demand, and I suppose that is my point in saying that the effect of halving is not a given. Only when demand is absolutely assured and permanent does supply become the active variable.
338.
Post 53431443 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.10h):
Well, supply will be cut in half, and unless you also believe that demand will be cut in half at the exact same time, price will rise. It's really that simple.
Nope, sorry, I can't see it that way. If it were so, the chart would show a step change in price at the point of halving. Demand is to a large extent already discounting (anticipating) future events, because it is so tied up with speculation. The flows and changes are complex. That's the reason you often see an opposite reaction ( to that expected) when an anticipated price sensitive event happens.
edit : Merry Christmas !!
339.
Post 53517092 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.11h):
Please don't engage the troll.
His power withers without your attention.
Our New Year's group resolution should be to stop responding to him altogether. When someone does respond, we should gently remind them of this policy.
Even if he does manage a sentence that is half coherent or relevant, please don't respond to that either, as he is only using it as a trick to draw you in for future trollery.
Don't know about you guys but I'd rather read a thousand posts about "stock-to-flow" than see one idi0t post quoted.
Free speech is important. At least it's not vapid meaningless stuff, and they are quite thought provoking and intelligent.
Reading that text makes you understand what you believe and why certain types of attitude are unhelpful. Edit :Responses: perhaps not so much, if only because it is so off-topic.
His posts have a striking similarity to the chatbots which learn all the nasty stuff from from engaging with forums, holding up a filter mirror to society, and they do actually have value in that context.
340.
Post 53517187 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.11h):
Please don't engage the troll.
His power withers without your attention.
Our New Year's group resolution should be to stop responding to him altogether. When someone does respond, we should gently remind them of this policy.
Even if he does manage a sentence that is half coherent or relevant, please don't respond to that either, as he is only using it as a trick to draw you in for future trollery.
Don't know about you guys but I'd rather read a thousand posts about "stock-to-flow" than see one idi0t post quoted.
But most everyone on this thread are trolls imho ! This thread would be dead...
Really Roachs texts are insane but he has free speech... you can always ignore .
I've had him on ignore for several months but occasionally other people quote him and I just have to ask myself, what are they thinking??
BTW, he doesn't have "free speech" here. None of us do. We only post here with infofront's - and then the mods', and then theymos' - permission.
Actually, yes that is a good point... also, it's really off-topic as well.
But I still think that a few intelligent (even with unacceptable content) troll posts do keep the board 'on its toes'
341.
Post 53539696 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.11h):
today i did something different and shorted $eth for a change.
lets help them to get to their fair value.
Yeah.. even though ethereum is a fucking shit coin.... hopefully, you are not trying to get on our good side by suggesting that you are shorting shit coins.. and does not mean that you are NOT going to get rekt as fuck by playing those kinds of shorting games.
But, hey, it's your money to lose..
#nohomo... & #noloveforshitcoinethereum. Shorting any Crypto is always dangerous.
BTW, this little pump is encouraging, as it has pushed through resistance at 7600. Patience is needed, as price may well revisit the mid 7000s a few more times in the coming weeks, but a base might now be forming. Support at 6400 confirmed nicely.
Interesting to see where the high of this move comes in.
342.
Post 53541746 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.11h):
......Further, like you suggested, we have experienced a few of these BTC upsurge movements, but they ended up correcting decent amounts, even if it took longer to correct than it had to go up, so in that regard, it can be difficult for buy pressure (support) to keep up if the price is just NOT ready for the Upwards movement and to establish a new station. Personally, it would be nice to see $10k resistance to get challenged and then if necessary to settle back down into the $8,500 to $9,500 range for a few months that might end up dragging out to the halvening, or so. ....
Yes. I merely reiterate what I have always said: To be on course for an ATH in the next 2 years, the price needs to creep slowly upwards: small rises, small corrections, almost boringly slow.
The big pumps that end in a spike are nearly always very bad news indeed. I immediately saw that in the move to 13500 back 6 months ago. It was obvious that that one derailed the whole bull run. The second one to 10500 just made matters worse. I observe this natural pattern in many markets.
If you want a sustainable run to ATH, then hope for a tight range in the next 6 months, and a disappointingly slow boost from the halving. 10k at year end will be fine. Sorry for being the bearer of boring news, but that's life. Rejoice in the small stuff.
343.
Post 53541798 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.11h):
I see hardly any posts nowadays about market depth (which after all is the topic of WO).
I don't collate the stats myself, and I used to rely on this (or similar) sources. Is anyone here collecting and processing bid/offer depth data ?
344.
Post 53541984 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.11h):
......Further, like you suggested, we have experienced a few of these BTC upsurge movements, but they ended up correcting decent amounts, even if it took longer to correct than it had to go up, so in that regard, it can be difficult for buy pressure (support) to keep up if the price is just NOT ready for the Upwards movement and to establish a new station. Personally, it would be nice to see $10k resistance to get challenged and then if necessary to settle back down into the $8,500 to $9,500 range for a few months that might end up dragging out to the halvening, or so. ....
Yes. I merely reiterate what I have always said: To be on course for an ATH in the next 2 years, the price needs to creep slowly upwards: small rises, small corrections, almost boringly slow.
The big pumps that end in a spike are nearly always very bad news indeed. I immediately saw that in the move to 13500 back 6 months ago. It was obvious that that one derailed the whole bull run. The second one to 10500 just made matters worse. I observe this natural pattern in many markets.
If you want a sustainable run to ATH, then hope for a tight range in the next 6 months, and a disappointingly slow boost from the halving. 10k at year end will be fine. Sorry for being the bearer of boring news, but that's life. Rejoice in the small stuff.
What about the halvening? $10k end of year would mean halvening had no effect on
BTC price which is kinda weird if not impossible at all....
Getting into 5 digits and staying there is NOT a huge pump it's not even big... as we see from history halvening brings us at least to the area of previous ATH...
That can all happen, but it is the timescale that is the big variable. : Might be End 2021 rather than 2020. Cycles are getting longer as market cap gains weight.
My thesis is simply this :
Shallowing of the long-term chart is to be expected, and is a positive ...steepening is a negative , it just interrupts the natural flow, and takes more time to be corrected.
345.
Post 53542011 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.11h):
I especially like that real-time (edit: order book) graphic in Bitcoinity . It is a standard depth graph, but seeing those changes actually makes you realise how much noise (and rapid variation) there is in the data.
In a way, it is signalling it's own irrelevance !
346.
Post 53607545 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.12h):
I wonder how stupid you have to be to be buying SV right now....
A lot of buyers just chase price momentum, without any idea of what is really going on in the fundamentals. They often think they can get out in time, but when this sort of move ends, liquidity evaporates and the reversal will kill most of the price in short order.
The alts certainly seem to be running on momentum alone. It is fairly positive to see BTC moving steadily higher (indicating it is not just a rotation trade), but of course it would be unwise to chase this move.
When the reversal comes, it will of course take everything down, but there will then be a good indication of where the new support lies.
347.
Post 53619552 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.12h):
Can you guys please stop talking about completely irrational future gains?
You are spoiling all the fun... were it to occur. Which it won't. Probably. Just no.
Let them speculate : its fun, plus extra-bullish comments always provide a reliable guide to the top of price moves.
I don't trade, but there may be lurking shorters here who benefit from the timing guides !
348.
Post 53619562 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.12h):
Has anybody here ever bought BSV?
Please, be honest guys. I could do with a good laugh.
Don't be coy. You *know* I did.
Laugh all you want.
Just getting started.
Genuinely hope you sell before 3rd Feb. Take your profits (probably handsome profits) and run.
That may even be a bit late.
349.
Post 53774420 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.14h):
It's very nice how $9K is holding (for now) and people don't give a shit about it anymore. Slowly stepping and maintaining price without any FOMO signs sounds great. Even a little retrace would not do any harm right now.
While holding $9000 is welcome the daily BBands are sloping up so many traders are going to be looking to buy if price drops to the middle BBand at $8900.
Which basically "confirms" there is good buying support for a little retrace. And probably even more support for a bigger one. Also it is not as if sellers were pilling up to sell. Much the contrary.
I want to see the price over $10K as much as everyone else... but I love how smoothly the price is rising step by step and doing the proper retests.
Looks good so far.
Boring is best. A little more time to establish support at 7900 might be needed. ..then a few months to get back through 9xxx. would be the most sustainable way forward. Another spike like last Jun/Sep would not be a good sign.
10500 is the first real resistance, and it needs to be taken real slow. So far, so good.
350.
Post 53804839 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.14h):
......
More like $8.2-8.4k right now but it will probably get closer to 9k later on if it keeps going up without a correction.
...
The area around 10500 presents an important hurdle. If there is going to be a correction to that MA, then it could come from there.
If 10.5 is cleared ,bigger resistance is at 13.5k. Could correct from there as well.
This is all likely to take some time, as 10.5 has not even been tested on this move.
351.
Post 53900453 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.16h):
Is the game end?? where is the next support level?
$7450
That is quite precise ! .. but about right.
I would think it's in the 7-8000 range. It wont be defined until it has been tested and rejected.
352.
Post 53993848 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.18h):
Time for a new poll.
Also, the old one was flawed, as it made an implicit price assumption....didn't include an option for 'never see 10k again'
353.
Post 53993916 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.18h):
Time for a new poll.
Also, the old one was flawed, as it made an implicit price assumption....didn't include an option for 'never see 10k again'
Bc to actually say never see 10K again, then it’s just not the thread for those that thinking that.... in a long term perspective
Why ? Are you suggesting no-platforming certain views ?
So what is the thread about ? There are always plenty of off-topic posts here.
354.
Post 53993924 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.18h):
Surely the poll is about neutrality, and should not make implicit assumptions ? Just pure logic.
It would also be interesting to see how many votes there were for 'never see 10k again'. Should be none, and that in itself is a valid indicator.
355.
Post 53999913 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.18h):
- Italy reports 1,797 new cases, bringing total to 9,172 as deaths increases to 463.
This is really, really bad. That's a 5% death rate. However as we discussed a few days ago, it takes a while from people getting sick to either dying or being cured. With a doubling time of a week (6 days) and 2-4 weeks from getting sick to whichever conclusion, we are looking at at least a 20% death rate. Possibly more but I won't venture there at this time.
In addition to this, you can get reinfected and the next round is worse.
In addition to this, there are reports that even if you are cured there is a risk that you will end up with pulmonary fibrosis which gives people a life expectancy of 3-5 years.
This thing could literally wipe out half the planets population if any of this is halfway accurate.
That is one way of looking at it: you quote the case/death ratio. The actual infection numbers could be a lot higher, with large numbers of mild unreported infections. That brings the infection/death rate way lower. There is just insufficient data on this atm, to make much judgement.
I agree about the reinfection issue. It does seem like this is going to be a new , novel disease which is going to be a threat to human population indefinitely into the future. We will just live with it, like all the other diseases.
The biggest effect will be a modification of behaviour. More social distancing. Probably a reset of the financial system/economy to take account of many things, including new paradigm for the aged : healthcare, pension, deathrate. Some big changes and very hard decisions here.
Anyway, that is looking far ahead: there is a long crisis to go through first.
356.
Post 53999960 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.18h):
Coronavirus is bullish for the King.
Obviously not..
You guys still think china virus is bullish?
What happened? Why are we following the DOW instead of the inverse?
Is Bitcoin just a luxury?
No, x3.
1. This is spawning a liquidity crisis. BTC is getting liquidated along with other assets.
2. The world is entering a deflationary phase. All asset prices can fall, including BTC.
3. The medium/long term (2-3 years) trend is down, so that is the natural bias.
4. On a Positive note, it is a good indication that 6500 has not yet been tested.
5. 1BTC = 1BTC.
357.
Post 54017995 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.19h):
Ok I now have buy orders starting around $3k all the way down to $10. Whatever happens man I am ready.
If we don’t get below $3k I don’t have any liquidations and nothing changes.
$10 might be a bit optimistic.
If 3k breaks, then 1.5k might be possible. There would surely be some new buyers in that range.
However, I did not expect 6.4k to break, and that is a very bearish signal. Something else is going on (probably not good) , and it would be wise to wait until the smoke clears before taking action in either direction.
Observing 4.6k... when I started this post it was 4.8k.
358.
Post 54018007 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.19h):
...but suppose it turns out not to be an over-reaction ?
359.
Post 54018014 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.19h):
Ok I now have buy orders starting around $3k all the way down to $10. Whatever happens man I am ready.
If we don’t get below $3k I don’t have any liquidations and nothing changes.
$10 might be a bit optimistic.
If 3k breaks, then 1.5k might be possible. There would surely be some new buyers in that range.
However, I did not expect 6.4k to break, and that is a very bearish signal. Something else is going on (probably not good) , and it would be wise to wait until the smoke clears before taking action in either direction.
Observing 4.6k... when I started this post it was 4.8k.
Observing 4.5K
Also observing a flow going towards altcoins right now.
Link :
https://imgur.com/44roAgSThat may be just random noise : the volatility is so extreme.
360.
Post 54018019 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.19h):
Ok I now have buy orders starting around $3k all the way down to $10. Whatever happens man I am ready.
If we don’t get below $3k I don’t have any liquidations and nothing changes.
$10 might be a bit optimistic.
If 3k breaks, then 1.5k might be possible. There would surely be some new buyers in that range.
However, I did not expect 6.4k to break, and that is a very bearish signal. Something else is going on (probably not good) , and it would be wise to wait until the smoke clears before taking action in either direction.
Observing 4.6k... when I started this post it was 4.8k.
I don’t think it will get there either. But I need to do it so that I don’t care where the price gets to - I won’t miss out.
Ok, yes.... that is a good trick to help calm mental processes.
361.
Post 54019779 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.19h):
Problem is I couldn't. My problem was buying too many dips recently. I was casually throwing $5k's. That was a huge mistake and was the main panic trigger for me.
Combined with that, what we just witnessed never happened before in the history of crypto If I am not wrong.
You are right. That move was a first for crypto, and it is worrysome. It could be an indicator (much as we don't like it, deny it) that the market/trend has changed in some fundamental way.
For me the real negative sign was the failure, in an exponential spike, of 13500 and 10500 (twice), BELOW the ATH. That had not happened before. Exponential rises to ATH are temporary exhaustions, but below (in TA) signal long bear trends.
Of course, there is the argument that BTC is not like other markets, but with this move in lockstep with stocks etc, it is looking more like BTC has matured .
Now lets hear the bull case.
362.
Post 54019824 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.19h):
To keep things very simple, we had:
-December 2017: all time high 19.5k
-January 2019: low @ circa 3k
-June 2019: lower high @ 13.7k
-December 2019: higher low @ 6.4k
-February 2020: lower high @ 10.5k (very crucial price, the bulls will buy massively if we break above)
-March 2020: lower low 4k compared to December 2019, but higher low compared to January 2019
What is worrying in this thread is the constant higher lows (19.5k - 13.7k - 10.5k), this also means we should see at least another bounce (which would be a lower high again) at some stage, around 6.4k at least.
If I could invest big money (sadly my money is stuck at Epayments right now) I would buy a lot of Bitcoin to sell at 6.4k eventually (conservative approach).
What I also think is possible is to see a lower low compared to January 2019 which would mean 1k to 2.5k area (scary but possible). But if you are mentally strong it doesn't matter, we should see 6.4k again.
Good summary. We will see 6.4k, maybe soon, but the key is what happens there. It has now become resistance. Even 7.5k , if rejected, is a very bad sign.
The bull case is a slow, slow consolidation, getting back above 8k by end of year.
The bear case is a quicker (1-2 month) move to ~7k, and another lower high.
Just TA stuff, for fun only.
363.
Post 54019868 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.19h):
Now lets hear the bull case.
Bitcoin is still Bitcoin. Nothing that makes it a valuable experiment has changed. Perhaps speculators got bit but that’s all part of the (speculation) game. If speculation would be Bitcoin’s purpose, the smash down would be bad. But Bitcoin’s game is totally something else (yes, it really is).
To me, the smash down may lengthen the path but does not hurt the experiment. Especially if the COV19 crisis leads to another round of again more crazy monetary experiments.
So nothing has changed, and the entry price just got lowered.
Solid arguments.
I never doubted Bitcoin.
Global recession and my latest panic buys fucked with my state of mind.
When everything gets resolved it may go back to 9k in no time.
Hopefully yes.
The correlation of this move with other assets looks omninous, but it is early days, and this market turmoil may have another chapter coming up.
Only thing to do is wait for the smoke to clear and then take a look in the rear-view mirror.
364.
Post 54019975 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.19h):
Good summary. We will see 6.4k, maybe soon, but the key is what happens there. It has now become resistance. Even 7.5k , if rejected, is a very bad sign.
The bull case is a slow, slow consolidation, getting back above 8k by end of year.
The bear case is a quicker (1-2 month) move to ~7k, and another lower high.
Just TA stuff, for fun only.
+2k(ie +40%) in 1-2months is a bear case?
If it fails , yes, very much so. The bounce velocity mirrors the fall, its just a retrace before more downside. That's how markets move.
365.
Post 54026090 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.19h):
Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.
I (shamed to admit it) capitulated at £3660 on Thursday night and liquidated 0.4 BTC for £1500. Sadly, I needed to make sure I had the money to pay a bill. I use BTC as my overall savings account with very little in my actual bank account other than general operating costs and some on exchanges to play with. It means I lost about 0.03 BTC / £150 in real terms. I had been buying bits and pieces during the crash - then panicked and sold at a loss.
I am the master of capitulation. I did it at $280 and I’m sure I’ll do it again. This is a sign we can go up now!
Not really capitulation, unless it represents a large proportion of your holding. It is a sensible move. Plenty of canny hodlers have had to sell small parts of their BTC at lows over the years. It is always better to make sure you have enough liquidity to be comfortable for a long wait.
366.
Post 54035925 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.20h):
1.) When the price hits $9,000 on BITSTAMP you must post a Vegeta meme
..that's a heck of a long game. Hopefully one day in the distant future someone wins it !
367.
Post 54037991 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.20h):
Honestly it looks like 3.5k is almost a sure thing now, lower high after lower high, the question now is do we see a lower low compared to January 2019 (3k)?
I tend to believe it is entirely possible. We will definitely see 6.5k again but probably not this year.
Even 1k-2k area is something we could see again. The good news is there will be another bubble in the future. Nothing better than Bitcoin to make 500%-1000% profits.
Another bubble ? Probable but not absolutely certain.
Anyone should have always been aware that total failure was a possibility. Only a possibility.
The deflation of asset values that was inevitable, has begun. Prices of anything that people dont need to survive, and especially might need to sell, have no floor.
Price predictions make no sense in this environment. Time predictions similar.
368.
Post 54038002 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.20h):
Honestly it looks like 3.5k is almost a sure thing now, lower high after lower high, the question now is do we see a lower low compared to January 2019 (3k)?
I tend to believe it is entirely possible. We will definitely see 6.5k again but probably not this year.
Even 1k-2k area is something we could see again. The good news is there will be another bubble in the future. Nothing better than Bitcoin to make 500%-1000% profits.
Yeah could very well do. Long-term of course it doesn't matter, the virus will eventually peak and so will the panic. The FED will do more than it is doing creating a shitload of liquidity in the process. Once the weights on global demand are lifted, assets will go up again and this time harder than after 2008 due to the much large central bank money being printed.
Throughout history, every bust has been followed by a bigger boom, this one will be no different.
Probably , yes...but this time is very different from anything that went before, so I would not be certain.
It is very early in this downwave, and there is no precedent to guide action.
369.
Post 54038030 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.20h):
Honestly it looks like 3.5k is almost a sure thing now, lower high after lower high, the question now is do we see a lower low compared to January 2019 (3k)?
I tend to believe it is entirely possible. We will definitely see 6.5k again but probably not this year.
Even 1k-2k area is something we could see again. The good news is there will be another bubble in the future. Nothing better than Bitcoin to make 500%-1000% profits.
Honestly we could see a $24 BTC tomorrow, we could also see a $24k BTC tomorrow, and I tend to believe there's at least a 99% chance we will see something in between. The good news is the one thing we know for sure is that nobody actually knows what the future holds, so we can safely dismiss those who claim otherwise.
"Everybody is right given a long enough time frame." - me
I would say better than 99% chance between those 2 values ! In fact , I would say *Certain*. Going a month into the future, 99%.
Perhaps a good game would be for everyone to choose 2 prices with a 99% probability of containing the range for the next week, month, 3 months, year. It would help focus minds on reality, and probability.
370.
Post 54038255 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.20h):
1 week 2500-5500
1 month 1500-6500
3 months 1200-10500
1 year 1200-13500
371.
Post 54038257 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.20h):
Probably Majormax should be showing us his self-constructed numbers too for this exercise, since he is the one who proposed this exercise... that way he is not seeming to lecture us about how to prepare our lil selfies psychologically and he has some stake in making prediction assertions that go beyond mere theoretical.
As above..and here
1 week 2500-5500
1 month 1500-6500
3 months 1200-10500
1 year 1200-13500
372.
Post 54038296 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.20h):
... and it is not possible to predict such narrow ranges with such high certainty.
O.k. Maybe, I will concede that I am a little bit broad in the range because maybe I am assigning too high of a likelihood to extremes, but I don't know how else to do it based on what seems to be current market conditions and my thinking about worse/best case scenarios on both ends in such assigned time-lines.
I am surely not saying that I know anything, but I do consider predicting within 99% range should be giving some pretty outrageous extremes in those assigned timelines.
Good thinking.
The ranges would surely get wider , both ends, with each longer time frame, otherwise it's like saying '99%' we go above x or below x , by <date>
373.
Post 54038529 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.20h):
If any any of you WOers consider selling just think: you HODLed during $20k peak, during $14k and $10k minipeaks. So why sell now?
Let's ride this thing down to 0 or get filthy rich. There is no 3rd option.
Ride to 0. That's the spirit.
If ppl actually use BTC as currency, they will continue.
Hodlers may as well stop watching the price.
Calculate your net worth at say, $100 per BTC, and just treat it as a small , highly speculative part of your investments.
374.
Post 54038552 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.20h):
Now the lowest is 4400, how much next?
No floor here really. For all assets, the panic selling, raising cash at all costs is only at the beginning.
Ignore the price.
375.
Post 54050579 (copy this link) (by Majormax) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.20h):
Of course, I have hereby committed a common fallacy:
Using the dollar as the measure of Bitcoin’s value. If we soon see the effects of rapid dollar inflation (as seems a real possibility), then Bitcoin may indeed soon hit $1,000,000, without gaining any purchase power—just because the dollar crashed, and a $100 bill now buys a loaf of bread (if that).
Hyperinflation could also quickly give us quadrillion-dollar Bitcoins, or whatever; but that would not mean much, if it may also signal the global breakdown of technological civilization, and thus, the loss of the Internet.
A moderate amount of dollar inflation is also built into the rise since 2013: $50 in 2013 dollars would be worth significantly more today. Not >100x more!
Firstly: Yes, inflation since 2013 doesn't account for BTC rise. The driver is success of adoption.
Secondly: Suppose there is a deflation ? (the dollar increases in purchasing power). Maybe the drop in all asset values is signalling that future.
I am sure everyone will jump in here to tell me deflation is 'impossible'. Well, I have heard that from many speculators for the last 30 years, and during that time deflationary trends have gotten steadily stronger.
The deflation can happen by a generalised default. If companies and individuals are already too indebted to take on any more loans on any terms, they will simply go bust. It will not matter how much 'money' is lent to the banking system, or how much 'money' wealthy ppl and businesses have. The only way this can be forestalled is by the money-printers (govt, banks and wealthy creditors) giving it gratis , including large scale debt relief/forgiveness. The mechanism for debt forgiveness is fraught with arguments about unfairness, and therefore very hard to impliment.
