As for the most recent poll, I'd say between $8,500-$9,000 based on the following analysis. Either that or sub $8K in a bad way.

---

Also a 5 Part TA series on descending triangles from last couple of weeks, breaking down the breakdowns on Bitcoin's price history.
Half of them are playing out nicely. The others aren't wrong yet either. Thought this might be the sort of place to share them. I have no cap though sorry.

---

For anyone not paying attention, that was the week that just closed super bearish   Here's a look at where we are from a handful of different perspectives.

I think it's fair to say they are all more or less playing out so far   Part 4 you can't see as it's too accurate at the moment

My risky as f**k short is here. Not got wrecked quite yet 




But you need coins for shorting, surely 

Thanks, I'll need all the luck I can get at this rate 

Calm down, I'm hanging on by $11 here. I'm tempted to double down on my bet in this resistance zone to be honest  

Update: Ok now I've been tapped out 

it shouldn't of... that short was the riskiest play i've made in months. position size was fuck all 

Prediction of the future award goes to: dwdoc

Anyone notice the timestamp on this: 9/22/19. Given the price was $8012 on this date (last week), this guy deserves a medal.


Oh, forgot to say this is from June 2013  

But finding support from the 100 Week MA which has more relevance imo. Stuck between the two at the moment at least.

200 Day MA & EMA bear cross confirmed for October 14th by MA & EMA forecasts.
The crossover price is currently forecasted at $8,710 (EMA) and $8,725 (MA).


Here is a close up of the strong resistance from these moving averages, starting to look similar to when the price rallied into the death cross last year:

I don't believe we're still in a bull market no, but that's complete subjective to the time-frame. Why do you assume I'm putting such reliance on negative projections? I hodl long-term and accumulate more as the price drops. A short call doesn't necessarily mean I'm going to trade it, and in this case I definitely wouldn't as a bounce is due at anytime to re-test $9K, so clearly way too risky. It's simply what certain indicators and comparisons are telling me. I don't just blindly follow them, that would be ridiculous.

Just because probability is telling me one thing, doesn't mean it will occur, that should be obvious to be honest.
Buy the f**king dip. That better?

Hitler also got most of the votes back in the 1933 with 43%, also didn't make everything else that happened ok.
You might outnumber us for now, but the tables will turn eventually. Rest assured, they always do.
#Notaliberal #Notanazi

Full moon tonight, anyone believe in these astrological reversals? Could go either way by looks of it, we're due another big move either way it seems.

"Fun with fractals". Kind of like "Fun with flags", just as interesting and just as (ir)relevant  

As mentioned elsewhere, he was also giving away these t-shirts if people wore them for the rest of the day


In case anyone has forgotten (or been living under a rock for several years):

Current Weekly outlook: TD Sequential 9 currently up for grabs this week, haven't seen one of these since April 2019 and July 2018.
Full moon didn't do sh*t to decide, hoping this week can define a direction for the following weeks/months.
Looking at three potential scenarios long-term, as shown by A (bullish TD 9), B (wedge breakdown) and C ("bullish TD 9).

This is a nice chart, it does give me the impression we haven't spend long enough in the green band, given half the time is spent there.
It looks like we could resemble a 2012 style correction, whereby we break out of the support band but are rejected and return to support.
Either way. long-term accumulation is coming in my opinion.

Updated the quote, highlighted the relevant scenario. The "bearish" TD 9 in April was bullish af basically, hence if the opposite occurred the "bullish" TD 9 could be bearish af.
Obviously anything could happen, like another 8 different scenarios that somewhat overlap. I just like my comparisons to see that this current price movement isn't that unique at all.
Hope that it explains it, not very good at explaining these things. Only making drawings really.
This wasn't meant to tell you where the price is going, but potentially why, same as Part 8.

Unless you just put in a last minute short before the breakdown 

Copy that. Just closed out most my shorts from $8k area, already had limit order fllled at $7500  
To the moon.

Business as usual with good discounts.

Now over half way to the breakdown target of the descending triangle that most people have already forgotten about, despite it being very much still in play.
Not long left to go now. If you're not already accumulating, you're doing it wrong  

Nice call, it does look increasingly likely that BTC will fall to the $5-6k area, this is what I've been saying since before Bitcoin broke down from the descending triangle. However I'm expecting it to be short lived and bounce back sharply. Ideally a tidy v-shaped bottom to come, followed by longer-term consolidation somewhere between $8-12k, but that's just a hope and theory. This $200 bounce means nothing but short opportunities in my opinion, going up to the rejection level of $7750 100 Week MA (old support).

This one below, the 50 Week crossing the 200 Week confirming a long-term bear trend. Bit of a late signal from breaking the 200 Day MA, but crossing none the less. It's normal for the price to rally into the death cross, in fact in 2014 and 2017 it happened on both occasions, ripping 20%+ to the upside in the short-term before dumping 50% further in the long-term. It's best not to confuse the short-term bullish results of the bear cross on hourly/daily time frames, with the longer term weekly/monthly outlook of what this implies, but you're also welcome to assume a 4 hour candle changes everything and we're going to the moon regardless 



Don't get me wrong, I'm accumulating under $8k, but also trying to be realistic about the long-term perspectives of the bear cross based on previous price history.

Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear cross. But we rallied above it, it's negated now isn't it? Apparently not, history bluntly tells us.
$12K this month is still possible though, in my honest opinion, as well as $6K by next year. Sorry to be the bear again  
Please don't blame me, blame previous price history.


Archived

This evening I'm looking at the smaller time frame for the 0.786 moon level ($9,731.54) and the 0.5 doom level ($8905).
Already long from the wick at $9,800 like a moon boy  

Waking up today to a traders market then. 0.5 to the 0.786. Back down to the 0.5 then? I imagine there will be some futures based selling action today to catch up from missed opportunities over the weekend. Namely, the doji reversal sharp sell off from the October 26th. There's a big gap that arguably will be filled eventually down to $8900 (200 Day MA).

I think this price is the definition of a neutral market, meeting up with the 200 Day MA again. Investors would call it a "fair price", traders will wait to see which direction is taken.
Anything could happen moment coming right up... BTC style. Indicators claim Daily/Weekly/Monthly are strong buys while Bi-Daily/Hourly are strong sells.
This is the battle between the longer term bullish trend and the shorter term bearish momentum.

Starting to see the comparison now between 2016 and 2019. Note the similarity in the support from the 100 Week MA (grey line) during the bullish correction.
Continued dip support from the 200 Day MA would help this theory to play out. That and the upcoming bull cross circled in green, if price can hold up at higher levels.

Crypto meme of the week for me, courtesy of cryptocurrency memes.

Currently testing the descending triangle resistance on the 4 hr, therefore next hours candle close will be important.
Bare in mind the 1 hr will be on a TD 9 so don't be surprised by any big price moves...



Please note, I'm not getting "rekt" at the moment. This was a neutral call due to the 200 Day MA support invalidating the bearish setup for me.
I'm posting this for benefit of seeing if we invalidate the bearish pattern of a descending triangle, and return to the classic bull flag.

Too many assumptions, not enough logic. FYI my trading account is only ever 10-15% of my BTC holdings, so go figure 
If I get "rekt", is because my BTC hodl is going up. If I win, it's because I'm losing overall BTC value.
Some people 

You're right it's possible for me to get r3kt™️, probably from fakeouts where I was in the right short trade but got tapped out at a loss prior to my hodl position continuing to lose money after I've lost my hedge. When it comes to bull traps I generally try and avoid them, as if I'm already 85-90% long, I don't want to increase my risk. It's worth considering though.

This probably explains my natural trading bias to some degree, maybe my TA requires a disclaimer because of it. But ultimately I apologize for being the pessimistic bull, that by your standard deserves to get rekt™️, but so far hasn't and is otherwise unlikely to happen due to position sizing, risk management and generally avoiding bull traps. The only way I will get truely rekt™️, is if BTC goes below $4K. Then I iz a r3kt™️ moonboy like any other post-2017 moonboy hopes and dreams getting r3kt™️ r3kt™️ r3kt™️.

To let you down even more, I won't be going out there to trade any satoshis, I'm avoiding buying resistance that's a big open space of bull trap, as well as avoiding any foolish bear traps wicking under the 200 Day MA. I'm remaining neutral, believe it or not. Even if I'll retain my bearish bias regardless of lack of confirmation.

Just got a new job to start dollar-cost averaging though, hope that makes you feel better.

My bad, I'm waiting for confirmation, but planning to short the bullish broadening wedge with a tight stop loss if that's ok with you?
If you could confirm within the next 96 minutes before the close it'd be appreciated  
I drew this chart just for you. To show you that we're in a bullish pattern, but I still want to short it  



I'll long again at the 200 Day MA (the support trend-line) I promise 

Fair point, no explanation to random over drawing on my clutter chart
Fortunately price blindly followed the path though so I've done as you've asked



It always surprises me being able to copy & paste trends and watch them actually play out 

You should bare in mind these are two tweets out of dozens (if not hundreds) of Peter (anti-Bitcoin) Schiff saying that Bitcoin will continue to crash, to $1K, then $1, etc, etc.
When someone is fundamentally 100% bearish about Bitcoin, acknowledging their negative tweets seems completely irrelevant.

Do we get to vote on a new poll now? $7,500 is done. $6500 next?

I'm starting to think the sell-off could be done. I also don't doubt we could go lower, but for the second time this year I see the possibility of a low.
This was my TA from 2 months ago (when the price was >$10K) that had a target of $6,875. This particular descending triangle didn't entirely play out, but the breakdown target has now notably been reached regardless. If you're still selling or shorting, you're doing it wrong.



Time to start accumulating  

Current state of play....

Wall observer is neutral:



Bitmex is slightly short:



Market sentiment is extremely fearful:



Time to accumulate 

I think we're done here. It's taken more than two months, but the original bearish target looks complete, at least by a margin or error being $116.



Now we just need a strong bounce back above $7400-$7500 and we're good in my opinion  

It's an interesting perspective from the BTC value view, very different from the 1 Year Hodl Waves when viewed in USD value:



Either way, the HODL waves shows the same result: 1 Year hodlers have stopped selling. This nicely supports my accumulation theory:

Starting to see another "Fun with Fractals" pattern forming. If it plays out, expect some boring price movements for a couple of weeks as well as a re-test of $6,600.



Perfect accumulation time imo

Time for a bounce. I rarely look at the 3 Day chart, but once the TD Sequential gives a 9 Buy signal, I like to pay attention  
Just waiting for a green 2 to move above a green 1, which the current candle has been flirting with and closes by days end.



Notably finding support from the 200 MA too  

It's true we're still holding up a form of support trendline from the start of the year regarding network transaction volume which is a good sign.



We did dip below it briefly but popped up above again.

The best way I can see this working is by already transmitting the transaction, to a wallet that your family already own, but with a time delay of anywhere between a few months and a decade (depending on your desire for maintenance). I'd like to think this can be done by transmitting into a specific block in the future with nLockTime (discussion here), but I may be wrong. Possibly there are features within the lightning network that can facilitate this as well but again not sure.

This would act as the most reliable insurance for worst case scenarios, and don't already have shared custody set up, but more importantly would guarantee that your family get your Bitcoin, at an eventual date of your chosing - without the need for the switch, which is a single-point-of-failure in itself. What if you don't have access to your switch for example? Pragmatically speaking this is what you want I believe, a permanent solution dependent only on the variable of time, as opposed to your access to a switch.

Hope that helps with the brainstorming.


One day, I wish to have one of these hats.

Fair enough, just to point out the coins would never move unless you fail to update/overright your nLockTime transaction. This means your family could already have the key to the encrypted email (or ideally a veracrypt file for increased security), but they would't have the coins until the transaction is mined (when you fail to update your transaction).

Bulltrap to breakdown currently in play on 4hr. If $7300 doesn't support the price, it's in trouble again. This is why I don't like symmetrical triangles  



The green line cutting through the wick is the signal for a long trade on the 3 Day chart  

That moment you go to dollar cost average your weekly paycheck, and you find your bank is having downtime  
Also the moment you remember why your investing in decentralized infrastructures.

I really don't see what the problem is, if Bitcoin continues to move sideways, you can accumulate more.
If Bitcoin crashes below $6500, you can accumulate more.

Still don't get this sentiment, people wanting a higher price already. Surely people want as long as possible in order to accumulate? Dollar cost averaging? I agree that no ATH by 2022 would be a concern, as would dropping below $5k (arguably) but for me more $4 and we'd be in trouble. We'd all be able to get a lot of BTC if there wasn't an all time high until 2021/2022 that's for sure. This tells me we still need to go lower and consolidate for longer, sentiment is still in "impatient bull" mode.

I realise that probably no one wants to hear it here, but it does look like price is forming another descending triangle on the 4hr. There are enough touchpoints against the resistance downtrend line (including wicks), although we do only have a few on the support, but arguably not three (basic requirement imo) that are far enough apart still. Regardless, we all about Bitcoin's history of descending triangles, as well as hodlers deniable of them, so I think its worth bringing it up  


 
I also don't think this is a big deal, it's measuring a 9% back down to $6,500, rather than to lower lows.  The breakdown zone is calculated as being between 18th and the 25th (Christmas day haha). I could see this being the final drop before a big move up, or the continuation of the bear trend. I'm actually feeling pretty neutral mid-term about the market right now, even if shorter and longer-term I'm back to being bearish again, which is merely what certain technical indicators are telling me.

Today's short-term outlook, 12hr TD is on a Red 9 buy signal however the 3 Day is on a short trade (Red 2 breaking below the Red 1), despite the 200 MA support around $7K.



This shows a battle between the shorter and longer term trends in play, while the Daily and Weekly charts have returned to being fully bearish after the dead cat bounce to $7,800.



Price is continuing to test the 0.382 fib retracement (yellow line) from the $3.1 to $14k move after getting rejected by the median price of the bear channel (orange line).

Cheer up Wall Observers, $6,500 might of been the bottom  

Here's my short term outlook on price, I won't post a new topic as it might upset people, even if it is a neutral call 


You can ignore the indicators, they weren't meant to show up 

[charts]

Here's my outlook of the Weekly time-frame on a 4 chart like a weirdo  


Doesn't look good in my opinion. Only "hope" for me right now is the current descending triangle is a fake out / bear trap.

If you'd prefer to look at something bullish, then check out this chart I came across. It has nice proportions of 0.5 volitility and 2x time (half the depth and twice the length):


The is also similar to the 2012 descending triangle extrapolation I made a couple of months ago that's also quite similar:



[/charts]

The strange thing the Bitfinex long/short ratio was due to over-leveraged longs, that are worryingly still parabolic and at ATH with RSI completely oversold:



The reason the ratio dropped ironically due to the short interest, as opposed to a long squeeze. I don't see this as necessarily a good thing:



On the Daily chart, you can see there has been a 50% increase in shorts today, so far:



But the longs still remain over-leveraged by a factor of 5:1 (80%), as opposed to the high of around 15:2 (87% approx):



Still expecting a drop to around 2-3:1, which is also the 200 Day MA for the ratio, or 4:1 minimum. for a more reasonable 50-65% long leverage personally.



Until then I'm still expecting a long squeeze personally (dump in price), that clearly hasn't occurred. Ratio squeezes don't count for me.

For those of you bored of the longer-term chart, am seeing a bullish breakout on the 1hr with the measured move of a bullish penant breakout wicking as high as $7285.
Still needs to clear the $7130 resistance level (triangle breakdown). I'd however expect a swift rejection from the 200 MA around $7240 (the orange line), as well as the 100 Week MA at $7245 - the silver dotted line. If we get above $7150 and can turn it into the support, would be a pretty bullish case of a classic beartrap:

Notably, if we also extrapolate the second part of the correction in 2015, then we are not only looking similar, but also on target  

You think we're more likely to go $93.4K higher then $100 lower? Ok 

I do however see the argument for this being a "fake out", as previously referenced. The measured target of $6,600 has been met from the descending triangle breakdown, $6500 doesn't necessarily have to happen, it could easily be a double bottom or higher high. This is an obvious take profit zone for shorts, not a shorting area.



Either that, or within a few minutes we'll be there  

PS - This needs to come to an end first. This is getting ridiculous.



RSI at 96 is virtually unheard of, even for Bitcoin related TA.

On another note, go day traders on the 10 minute chart.



You can do it, $6556 is being defended with strong volume, also within 1 cent.

My TA says we need a new Wall Observer poll. $6,500 hit to the cent on Coinbase.

10 minute candle, coming right up...

Looking good on the accumulation chart right now, found support from the base of the accumulation zone after wicking below it.



A recent argument for $6,500 being the low can be viewed here.

Thanks to everyone in this thread who put up with my TA supported me in becoming a Full Member, you know who you are 

Ironic you should mention that, I just uploaded a new hat avatar. I'm afraid it's not one of the Wall Observer™ Official ® hats however.
Maybe soon I will apply though 

Couldn't of put it better myself:


My only thoughts is would you incrementally dump Tether for Bitcoin over the course of a month  
Maybe this tells us more about the future of USDT, rather than the price of Bitcoin.

I feel like I'm getting deja vu now. It could just be due to alcohol, but what if $6,430 was the low? I remember when $3,130 didn't look like the low either. It also looked like we'd probably go lower, due to the technicals. Now $6,430 doesn't look like the bottom as well. Maybe we don't get obviously defined bottom, yet again.



I've said it multiple times, I think we're going lower, to the $5k area, but that also this could actually be the bottom.

Already done, two versions extrapolating the 2014 correction  

The bullish:


The bearish:


These charts can't both be right, so am still waiting for confirmation as to which is wrong. Likely the second chart however.
Either way, both point to the idea that this is a long-term accumulation zone, hence I'm accumulating.

Shitcoin moon is coming, to the detriment of BTC no doubt, holding it back like a kid on a leash.
But it will flow back into Bitcoin eventually, you can use it as an opportunity to stack sats  

Note this is time-based analysis, not price based. This does not indicate lower lows, but when the next low will arrive (whether lower or not).



For example, a low around $6,850 re-testing support in early February such as this chart.

2022-2023.

My favorite Xmas tweet so far  



https://twitter.com/MoonOverlord/status/1209875358612443137

Nice outlook, I'm also thinking this is more a possibility right now. It'll take a bit of time and confirmation for me to be convinced, but it's more than possible by looks of it.

If Bitcoin maintains the proportionate halving-on-halving  decline in gains (-68.68%), this means the next halving would "only be" 900% increase (31.31% of previous).
That's still a 10x from May 2020 until some unknown date in the future (that could also be proportionately estimated in fairness). I can deal with that  
So unless we go down to $2K by May 2020 (that I highly doubt), then 10x to $20K, then the halving clearly isn't priced in.
Even an exponential decline in halving-on-halving gains would still be around 600-800% I imagine.

Hash Ribbons is close to a buy signal, both on Daily and Weekly time-frames
Click quote for more info regarding the indicator and it's buy signals.


If these buy signals come through, I will become an uber bull  

The Hash Ribbons indicator is currently signalling a buy. Closing the day at current price would be the first buy signal since January 11th 2019 at $3,632.



The Weekly is yet to print the buy signal (also only half way through the week), so no confluence between these time-frames yet, but still:

Sorry but had to post again, still can't get my head around this. Most indicators are telling me we're going down. Hash Ribbons is telling me the bottoms in on a long-term scale.



Why do I care about Hash so much? I don't, I care about an indicator that's given 9 signals in 9 years with 100% success rate of calculating post-bottoms in the market (or best accumulation prices). Therefore, if this signal is wrong, it would be part of the 10% unreliable signalling, meaning on a Daily time-frame at least, there is a 90% chance the bottom is in  

Not relevant. These signals have been back tested pre-ASIC. I'm sure that any TA based miner would be able to pin point the relevant cycles with releases of different models of miners that end up on the market, or others that drop out of the market for that matter, in relation to these capitulation & buy cycles.

Me, I do not care for economics, only reliable technical indicators. It's signalling a buy and this indicator hasn't been wrong yet, I won't be betting against it for that reason.

TA is based on probability, that is based on mathematics, 1s and 0s. The latter has been reliably tested for thousands of years. The former, for only a couple of hundred maybe.
Economics is based on a load suits in a room deciding whey think is best to do with their money, at the detriment of anyone else.
My faith in mathematics is inexplicably higher than any moronic human species based intelligence.
Believe what you want, I know what I'll be putting my money on: 1s and 0s.

Technical indicators are exclusively based on mathematics, the source code would tell you this if you bother to read them, but never-mind.

Smart and well put. Admittedly it's the economics of Bitcoin that drew me to this asset class, so I won't deny it's validity. I'm out of merit so bookmarked  
Edit: Merited you, thanks micgoossens for +2, though next time maybe just merit the user's post yourself 

Oh lol, I edited my post above, and already done   I see what you did now  


I'm clearly not great at understanding economics  

I already explained 



True story. That psychology of price discovery, unrelated to economics, is also the psychology of "human rationality" or more specifically "the herd".
Humans are far from rational, instead they act like most animals in a herd like mentality: they lack basic intelligence when panicked or feeling threatened.

What happened?


Everyone was saying we were going to $5K, including me. Obviously the idea was that you ladder bought $5-7K, in order to at least get some decent buy fills.
Oh well, maybe next time in 2020.


Hate to say I told you so  

Bounce from $7245 incoming. I've got a hunch.

DYOR

Agree to this idea, I said something similar elsewhere... I feel as if the halving speculation has been priced in, but not the havling itself - ie the economics of stock to flow, reduced supply & therefore difficulty feeding a stable demand. Even if it a takes a few months after the halving, supply will dry up fast enough in my opinion.

Always nice to see hash rate at new ATH 

True story, at least it brings about eventual turn around in price, even if it takes sometime. Bare in mind that from the $20K price peak, Bitcoin's hash-rate continued to be parabolic for another 10 months, before crashing at the end of 2018 (when price dropped to $3.1K), even if it was to a level higher than the $20K peak. My point is it's usually a matter of months rather than weeks before price follows suit. Regardless, on-chain data such as hash ribbons, as well as the energy oscillator, are signalling accumulation buying, even if it'll last for a while:

Pump soon? Target of this bullish inverse H&S is approximately 15% (head->resistance trendline) up to $8,500... if it plays out of course.



Notably this would take us to the top of the 6-month long Weekly bearish channel 

It looks like one think we're still guaranteed to get is volatility  
It's a nice table though, good perspective for 2020.


Not yet.

I think a dump to $5K level before $10K, both in 2020. But the latter after the halving, as opposed to before. The fact that many more people have made short calls as opposed to longs this time fills me with confidence that would could reach $10K before halving however, and that the majority could therefore be wrong as per usual. Markets do like to have this effect on the general public.


I agree from different perspective of moving averages & hash rate, I feel prices are still very much in line, only slightly overpriced at best.

I don't think it's scaring the noobs, they all ran away when $6K was broken, then same deal with $9K level   Noobs will come back at $10-20K I'd imagine.
If Bitcoin price was a contest in doing something stupid (investing) for as long as possible (dollar cost averaging) - like standing in a ring weighed down, in a pool, touching a vehicle - we'd be on Day 2/3 by comparison I like to think. All the noobs would of already gone, with only the dedicated and hardened participants left.

This just got interesting  

Latest theory on Wyckoff Accumulation pattern:


Souce: https://twitter.com/Sawcruhteez/status/1214306177292615680

You were saying? Observing new Yearly high just shy above $8,200 here on Coinbase  

Or north of $50,000 (5 figures) ?

Starting to worry that newbies maybe entering the market again soon and looking for that "cheap discount" after missing the dip.



Apologies if someone already shared this meme, only just noticed it.

Daily close was bullish... the 10 minute chart needs to chill out though. Only so many dips you can buy til you get rekt. Looking bullish af though imo.

My thoughts exactly. I'd still expect a re-test of this level around $8K before moving towards $9K, but then again, if it breaks through $8.4K I think it might pass on that.


We passed $85 years ago, keep up  

Again..?

Capwearers be warned, BSV are calling you out as corrupt 

Maybe so, although I think it's too early to tell. Volume came in to defend $7,850, so all might not be lost yet, even if we did fall through it with ease.
Regardless, I like the charts that you post, so merited another post of yours to turn you into a Member. More charts in this thread in future though please 

Me too. Your post reminded of some "neutral" TA I published a few weeks ago that was looking irrelevant until this week.
Took a bit longer than expected, but got rejected by the respective resistance levels after reaching the extrapolated move #bearish



Not as convinced about the $5,800 new low target quite yet, but breaking $7,800 would be very bearish is this point.

Bouncing nicely off the 50 Week MA price and back into resistance, as shown on a 4hr chart, even if with lack of volume.



People draw their bear channel / bull flag resistance level differently, here's mine from the Daily chart.
I'm mainly see how this Weekly candle closes out now.
in.refs: rsi, macd, cmf

Decided as of Monday I'll be bearish 



New target: $5,600, until proven otherwise. Fits with the bear channel we're in that everyone else has already identified.
Going to put my short-term bear cap back on folks.

I don't see a bull market on the Daily charts, although I can obviously see the argument on a Weekly/Monthly time-scale.
I just see shorting bear-cross resistance of long-term MAs as high probability scenarios, same as longing bull crosses for that matter (when price is re-testing that is).


That's what everyone said last time at $9,500, telling me I just draw squiggly lines that make no sense and we're going to the moon.


While it turned out to be one of my best short-trades, probably because of the high-risk

Long the TD 9 sell signal? No thanks. Same as I didn't short the TD 9 buy signal either  



Getting rejected again by bear channel resistance* by looks of it on smaller time-frames:



*Channel adjusted in order to reflect yesterdays close

---

You're welcome, more charts please.

It would make sense. Especially now two years have passed since merit was introduced, it would highlight legendary users who have not only stuck around but also added considerable value to the forum in the meantime - which can't be said for most legendary ranked members it seems  

Notably from BPIP, with a 2000+ merit requirement alone, it would be less than 66 members, based on users that have received 1000+ merit that is. I think activity would have to be 2000, in order to remain not too exclusive, or even just the same as legendary around 1000.

I know you weren't proposing it officially, but I was curious to how many users a new rank would include... not many basically.

I referenced this the other day, but I'll do it again. CME looks like a shorting opportunity. Whether you'd get rekt™ over it is another story, but that's what it looks like to me.



Note, as you can tell by the chart, I wouldn't be entering this position (on BTCUSD) until Wednesday, ie until the fractal pattern continues to consildate at the highs whilst failing to break through resistance. Even though the market is already open and I'm short-term bearish.  For reference sake, this is the first 100 & 200 MA bear cross on CME, so there is no previous data to extrapolate*. However, if you had shorted this bear cross on BTCUSD last month, you would of made a tidy 25% profit from the trade:



Don't mean to be the bearer of bad news, but bear crosses are bear crosses  

*Now thinking I should of extrapolated the BTCUSD bear cross from last month, instead of the previous fractal, as would likely be more relevant with a target to low 6s instead of high 5s. But either way, there's a good few reasons why this is still bearish to me, not forgetting the bearish channel that's still intact.

While feeling short-term bearish, I always like to review the longer-term bullish scenarios, of which I already have a few. Now that more data has been crunched by the indicators I predominantly use (CMF, RSI and MACD), there is noticeably potential for a rounding bottom formation. The indicators and also confirming this possibility, this is first piece of evidence for a new ATH this year (that everyone has now seemingly ruled out):



CMF: bullish divergence approaching 0
RSI: Finding support from 40 (bearish level)
MACD: Losing bearish momentum

Price would need to confirm this pattern with a new swing low in early February (6th-11th ideally), in order to continue moving higher in this manner.
Haven't published this on TV yet, was hoping to get some opinions or alternative perspectives from this thread 

I'd say it's the most optimistic view I can imagine yes, without pointing a vertical arrow to $100K.
It'd also need to find that support in February to be considered as a valid possibility.


Sounds great to me, more time to accumulate. Only so much fiat I can earn per year. Count me in!


I agree with logic too, most of my bullish TA isn't expected a new ATH until 2021 at earliest (last I checked), even 2022 or later. It's likely to take much longer this time around to reach an ATH as you said, even break out of an accumulation zone (that's yet to really be confirmed). Or, like in 2012 that had a parabolic bounce back (a path we are still following post descending triangle breakdown), it will occur much sooner than anyone thinks, My primary reasoning for the above is the differences in this correction and parabolic bounce back compared to 2014. There are a lot more similarities with the 2018 and 2012 corrections, more so in recent weeks and months I'm finding, hence considering the above.

Appreciate your opinions, even if they remain similar to mine. The the alternative perspectives help develop my own analysis.

Good call and agree, looks like we have broken out of the bearish channel now, at least from my best fit line, RSI still as room to go overbought* >70. If you use the wicks and not the candle bodies, than arguably we "could" still be in the channel, or modify the new one, but this is becoming less and less likely every $100 upwards that passes.



A close above $8,500 (0.5 fib retracement from $3.1-$14K move) would open the floodgates for $9.1K where the 200 Day MA resistance is lined up.
Looks like we might need to consolidate for a few days to a week, turning old resistance into support. Either that, or moonshot to $9K+  

I'm still eyeing up a short for tomorrow if price gets rejected by the 0.5 fib & 100/200 Day MAs on CME futures chart though  



I've changed my chart and instead extrapolated 100&200 MA bear-cross breakdown from the BTCUSD chart, giving a higher target of $6200 level.
With the stop loss at $9100 (BTCUSD 200 Day MA), this would be now be a 1:3 risk-reward (rather than a 1:2).

*Don't listen to anyone telling you the RSI is "close to overbought" as being a bearish sign. Between 60-70, the RSI is BULLISH and nothing else.
Disclosure: Long-term bull hodler, short-term bear trader.

Weekly CMF is finally just 0.02 away from neutral. Last times this happened (after a drop below 0.1) was April 1st 2019 and June 22nd 2015  

You can barely see it, but the Weekly CMF (chaikin money flow) has finally turned positive again (at least on Coinbase at +0.01), values last seen in April-September. Looks like the start of a trend shift, even if I'm still skeptical. The Week would need to close positive for this to be confirmed I'm assuming, otherwise it could act as a rejection from neutral level (0).



Noticeably Bitstamp is still -0.01, but the relevance is, we are at similar CMF levels to early April 2019
That's my bullish input for all you moon boys anyway.

Yes: tensioning of your chain monkey.
Edit: Already got it before the image 

It's ok I'm not looking for friends, just to learn from others   You're right, it did go against how I anticipated though, not going to deny that  
Lucky I didn't get rekt™ shorting really. Didn't realise moon boys was offensive though, I thought anyone who believes a $100K BTC is possible in the near future was a moon boy by default. We're all moon boys? Maybe men still get offended by being called boys I dunno, I forget to keep check of these things.
Maybe moon men would be more appropriate, but doesn't have the ring to it.

Legend! Just put this on, waiting to see how it looks  Joining the WO hat family thanks to xhomerx10 
PS - JayJuanGee, will respond to you properly as appreciated your response, was meant to merit your post but hat to merit the hat 

Don't forget about the majority of noobs that get rekt™ in order to make the profit for others.


9K sounds like a random rekt™ level. The 200 Day MA is around 9.1K for starters, if we break above the current highs, we'll probably go there...
As someone else said though, put on your money on 100x no stop loss and just hope for the best, that's what most people do.
Helpful leverage trading video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvZ7K_0_SiY

Yeh they are awesome. Felt appropriate to share it for that song, but many classics on there. The guys a lyrical genius. Some of my favorites...
When moon? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wBg1lBKtyg
All the small caps: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZwzttexaUM

Just edited my last post to reference this one too, then saw yours  
Also; Old town road: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3TzVgGyBFs
"I'm never selling nothing, I'm not selling nothing"
Best crypto music since hodl gang came out  
Edit: First post with new WO official hat 

If I had to title this TA, it'd be called "The bearish case is becoming increasingly difficult to argue"



VPVR since $8K breakout in November 2017 says we are above the median volume line.
Closing above the $8350 level this week would look uber bullish on this indicator.

Price is looking like a textbook bull flag on 1hr/4hr charts, target for a breakout above the 200 Day MA would line upto around $9,850.



Might be time to put on the moon boots soon.

On smaller time-frames I see a way we can get back up there, but not so far a way we will be able to stay up there with 200 Day MA acting as resistance (dotted golden line).



Looking forward to some volatility leading up to the weekly close either way 

Because the president there managed to stop this you mean? Looks like the constitution didn't stop anything 
This wouldn't be an argument for the need of government, but clearly the failure of such systems.

Already reached $9.1K...

No need to panic yet, just predictably getting initial resistance from the 200 Day MA ($9040) and overbought conditions on the Daily RSI (>70): "a textbook sell-off".
No doubt other indicators also called this top for traders to take profits (or set stop losses), but far from confirms $7K or even $6K prices are to come.

4hr chart



We are now trying to form a parallel bullish channel on the 4 hr chart at the 50 MA, getting back above the middle of this channel and 4hr MAs (around $8550 atm) would return bullish. This isn't a moment to be shorting in my opinion, price would need to break down below the bearish channel breakdown level now around $8,150, followed by the 50 Week MA and base of horizontal support at $7800. It looks neutral to me right now, a profit taking level for shorts, but not a time to be closing longs.

1hr chart

Thanks for sharing, I've been looking at the new bullish channel developing that could result in a bull flag with a relatively high target, but hadn't seen the bearish rising wedge pattern on the same chart   A breakdown from current levels could be more bearish than I had initially considered, especially now we are forming a bear flag on the 1hr with a target of aound $8200.

Somebody already made a nice meme for Peter's event  
https://twitter.com/CryptooIndia/status/1218939467970441216

If you missed the previous Peter meme, click here:
https://twitter.com/CryptoBull/status/1215388111443722247

I'm also a big fan of veracrypt, it's basically what truecrypt was meant to be (open-source) before it was liberated. I've been using it for years to backup my sensitive digital data and never had any problems with it, not even corrupt files. I'd also recommend getting a cold storage access laptop (one that you've removed the wifi card and bluetooth with no ethernet port) to access your containers if you do so regularly. The obvious point of failure would be keylogging malware registering your veracrypt container password (especially on closed-source OS's), then gaining access to your encrypted container - otherwise it's pretty much flawless encryption and security.

Hardware wallets are great for storying a handful of crypto-based keys, but veracrypt with a cold laptop is much more suited for dozens of keyrings and other sensitve data.

Weekly MACD close to a bull-cross (first time since February 2019, that would confirm a long-term trend change):



Daily MACD losing bearish momentum now heading towards bear-cross (notice the potential for a single candle fakeout 17/12/19 and 24/10/2019):



Monthly MACD bear-crossed (but is now trying to bull-cross again the following month creating potential as well for a "macd fakeout")



Weekly bulls vs Daily bears and exhausted Monthly bears. Still waiting for volatility given the indecision on different time-frames...
Also, don't trust the macd, clearly it can give out "fake" signals

Remember people leave their usd long term on random centralized websites and services where they don't control their funds, just to get a reported X% interest. It's apparently very common. Therefore, the idea that this (fiat-orientated) interest scheme is popular among (I'm assuming) fiat users is far from surprising, even if it's disappointing to see.


The popularity of these schemes implies that new buyers are entering the market in my opinion, which is a good sign however. Kind of like the way BCC showed just how ripe the crypto market was in 2017 by (literally) consuming lots of new users into the market... They were also promising daily interest if I'm not mistaken.

It think Peter Schiff might of signaled his first ever sell signal  



Source: https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1220135541330542592

What are you talking about? The sell-off was totally due to Peter  
[/sarcasmlol]

Current outlook for the day "Savage downtrend" on shorter-term time-frame.
If you're looking to trade long, I'd recommend waiting for this bear channel to break. Golden dotted line is 200 Day MA, purple dotted is 50 Week MA.



I'd expect a decent bounce from the 50 Week around $7,900 (Weekly MAs are in bullish formation, even if not all trending upwards), as well as the long-term bear channel resistance (flipping into support) that arguably we still broke out of (as well as arguably recreated under different touch points). Too many people are expecting capitulation to low to mid $7K from current level or a break of $8K, but I just don't see it yet. I see it as likely support, and usually I'm the one overly bearish.

Short-term bearish, further pull-back required imo. Mid-term neutral, long-term bullish.

I was hoping for a macd fakeout on the Daily, but as of yesterdays close it has confirmed the trend-change from bullish to bearish.



The Weekly macd is still close to a bull-cross that could occur in the coming weeks, which is a longer-term bullish sign:



However the Monthly macd is worryingly showing an increase in selling pressure at current prices, which seems incredibly bearish given that the price is up 15% this month:



I was hoping the Monthly macd would also be a singe bar fakeout as the Daily macd has twice achieved in recent months, but this isn't looking as likely anymore  

I'm aware I'm focussing heavily on the macd at the moment, but given the complete lack of confluence between the Daily/Weekly/Monthly, it appears very useful, as two of these time-frames will need to trump the outlier in order to create confluence. Right now, the Daily has started to line up with the Monthly bearish selling pressure, as opposed to the Daily creating a macd fakeout bear trap in order to line up with the Weekly bullish buying pressure

If buying Bitcoin can make you angry, I recommend not doing it. I been dollar cost averaging since Nov 14th, even buying above $8K, so will be happy if it goes back down below it.
My m₿ p/h at work has crashed significantly in recent weeks, but fortunately it doesn't make me angry. I'm always hoping my m₿ p/h goes up over the coming months, not down.
If Bitcoin goes up, then my money goes up. If Bitcoin goes down, then my m₿ p/h goes up. It's a win win, as long as we don't crash below $5K after the halving 

"Fun with Fractals"
Breaking out of bullish falling wedge on 4hr? We have enjoyed some bullish ascending & falling wedge triangles recently, so not ruling this out.
Extrapolation (green bars) is based on the previous falling wedge breakout, that acted very much like a bull flag (grey bars), coming $100 from it's flag target.



Needs to break through local resistance of $8520 to confirm bullish momentum imo. Now testing horizontal resistance  

Another argument for the $8K level acting as strong support from the "Y2D-VPVR":


Happy hodling fellow BTCitcoiners!

Going to zero obviously.

Turning more bullish Bitcoin today   Wouldn't be surprised at all to see a test of $10K this week based on 2019 extrapolation.


I'm now thinking $8K could very well be the swing low. That's enough indicators telling me we'll continue to move higher mid/long-term.

Nice share, I forget about the Guppy as it's signals are so irregular. Unless I'm mistaken, the indicator is based on MAs, similar to the MA Ribbon (which is prettier, for reference sake  )

Mempool getting busy again 



Ref: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,1w

Welcoming back the volume post breaking 200 Day MA, there are you are my old friend!

Now that's some serious f**king volume x10 the average for the time-frame (5 mins chart "yeh i know") leading upto the Daily close (almost certainly above the 200 Day MA):



Still looking bullish af   MACD now bull-crossing due to the pump, only 16 minutes until the close...



Pretty sure I warned people of a bear trap fakeout regarding the macd on the Daily that was looking bearish a few days ago  

$9400 broken through  on Coinbase 

Another bull flag move to $9,800 looks possible this evening, even if my gut feeling is for some more consolidation/correction before higher highs.



Also, an analyst I follow closely as they do incredible analysis of many different indicators and perspectives, is now calling for a $11,500 target, based on a measured move of a larger cup & handle pattern that has confirmed. Personally I'm not a fan of these patterns, but I do trust this analysts judgement they them claiming it has confirmed:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/K6uXzD2w-Cup-Handle-Confirms-Daily-Golden-Cross-Expected-to-Follow/

And I thought I was bullish by calling for $10K this week 

Either way, it's best not to bet against (short) these parabolic moves in my opinion, it's like trying to cycle in gale force winds ie going against the grain.

I think a flash crash to sub $6K is a bit much to ask, maybe better chance of ordering of a slow grind back down to continue to bear trend over the next few months, until the halving with an eventual break of $6K. While looking bullish, we still haven't made a higher high (above $10.5K) or the long-term downtrend from $20K (lined up at $10K), and therefore topping out and breaking key support (probably $8.2K and $7.2K levels) would definitely indicate a continuation of the bear trend (lower highs and lower lows). That said, the chances of sub $6K are becoming increasingly less as time moves on, about $100 a week based on the 200 Week MA (currently at $5266).

Just because price is looking extremely bullish, is above the 200 Day MA, broken out of a bear channel, above the MA ribbons and guppy on the Weekly, and given a hash ribbons buy signal on all time-frames (as well as many other bullish factors)... it still doesn't fully negative the bearish structure of lower highs and lower lows.

So to answer the enormous question on everyone's minds right now, is it a block halving or block halvening? Google claims that more users are interested in the halving, rather than the halvening, regardless of the latter's grammatical incorrectness. It's safe to assume that Google's user's do not care of grammatical correctness. More relevantly, searches for the halving event recently reached an all time high. Searches for the halvening didn't reach all time high.



Suggestion: Let's roll with the grammatically incorrect phrasing of the block halving, rather than halvening, for the benefit of google searches.
(Even my spell checker wants to call it the halving, take the hint)

103 days

New yearly highs recorded on Coinbase... lasted for a few minutes

The bears are back in town or just more volitility?



Currently facing some serious selling pressure:



Nothing to be afraid of...

Just taking out some over-levered longs (as well as some shorts prior to that):



Source: https://twitter.com/BXRekt

Starting look like a general squeeze in my opinion. Still no need to panic, still within a bull flag targeting higher highs.

Source: https://twitter.com/BXRekt

[rip coinbase pro users]



[insert volitility here, coinbase close gap: $9343]

Interesting perspective, I've seen an alternative version of a confirmed cup & handle pattern targeting $11,675, but the above chart is starting to look more relevant:



https://twitter.com/Sawcruhteez/status/1222309552475058176

That said, I don't like the fact that they result in bullish movements only 60% of the time, it's a bit too close to flipping a coin for me. I don't know what the probability is of reaching the target, but I'm assuming it's can't be much more than 50-55% if the pattern confirmation is only 60% reliable.

Getting very coiled up on smaller time-frame (1hr), I see a symmetrical triangle that's due to break soon enough, although we are still within a bull flag structure (as well as consolidating at the highs). Expecting some serious volatility very soon either way, at least by tomorrow leading upto the Weekly close that is critical for the price of Bitcoin at the moment.

Thanks to @jack for helping to pump the price of Bitcoin today. #bitcoin hashtag now trending due to everyone testing new emoji  



Source: https://twitter.com/jack/status/1223841364711854080
Article: https://cointelegraph.com/news/twitter-adds-bitcoin-emoji-jack-dorsey-suggests-unicode-does-the-same

We are now catching up with #coronavirus 



 

This price action on smaller-time frame is boring   My next guess would be $9,200 to the 200 MA (on the 1hr) before breaking out of mini bear channel and back heading to resistance around $9.4K-9.5K. At least based on the current range, it's safe to assume the price will continue to bounce between support & resistance (until proven otherwise).



I think a break above $9575 will lead to high highs $10-11.5K and below $9140 will cause a correction to somewhere between $8.2-8.8K.
Looks like many are waiting for a big move, but as we can see from previous attempts to move the price one way, price remains range bound.
Longer-term patterns; obvious bull flag & cup and handle (both bullish), but not yet confirmed while within strong resistance zone.

My time-based analysis for the coming days for anyone half interested. Published 6 weeks now and not influenced by recent price action 

To me this isn't the support, or as clear cut as this. Closing below $9,288 would be a new Daily closing low outside of the support/resistance range which would be short-term bearish, as well as confirming the sequential trend-change with a Red 2, and at current prices a MACD bear-corss. Last time the sequential turned bearish was January 20th before another 5% correction, which isn't a lot, but it went further down is the point. Not to say this is a selling range for longs, as the 200 Day MA is closeby as well as local and long-term fib retracement support levels, 21 Week MA etc, but on a Daily scale things are currently looking bearish unless we can return to the neutral range around $9,300.

Yeh of course that's just my belief, that goes without saying. In fact, I don't always believe I'm right, as I don't execute every trade. Only those I hold conviction in. Hence I believe the price will fall further based on the metrics referenced, but I'm not taking a short trade (or selling long), as I don't see enough short-term confluence at the moment. Weird huh?


Agree and disagree. When there is lots of confluence this is the best outlook, when there is a lack of it, it's best to explore deeper to try and understand what's going on.


I think if it succeeds your best off maintaining your modesty, if it fails, you can accept that you were wrong.
But hey, do as you please, that's just my opinion remember

Edit: Tomorrow would be likely too early to tell if this the level you are talking about is support (based on the Daily time-frame), unless it moves above recent swing high of course. Likewise, it would also likely be too early to tell if what I believe is correct, until the sequential count is reversed, macd bull-crosses again (ie days later) and/or a return to the previous trading range. If you're trading a different time-frame to your referenced chart then please say however.

I trade my published analysis, but not every opinion or belief that I have. For me this would be over-trading  


I only trade with upto 10-15% of my holdings, so yeh there is that factor, as well as taking profits in satoshis rather than fiat 

I don't have much doubt you'll be in profit by eod tomorrow.... what I doubt is that you'll be in profit by next early week
If we're looking at the shorter time-frame, like the 4hr, then this seems totally possible, just not on the "Daily time-scale" for me.
Regardless, I admire your confidence.

Suddenly looking pretty bullish on small time-frame after breaking through the volume zone within a couple of hours, now to see if it holds  

Looking like we're ready to pop upwards again, bullish ascending triangle on 1hr currently in pay, above the vpvr volume control  



Moon shot coming up imo, or a massive dump  

No need to panic imo, just facing strong resistance from long-term downtrend line (from $20 & $14K highs) as expected. Still within a bull flag structure:



I ain't selling nuffin.

TA for the day for everyone else feeling bullish af 



Target for the bull flag is $10,570. Would publish this on trading view but too lazy 

Amen to that. It's time to start getting really fucking bullish (in case you weren't already bullish).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZYZoQQ6LJQ

Nice prediction, interesting to hear you think it'll go to $300K next cycle. With most people believing that prices will only go 5-10x from ATH ($10K0-200K) until topping out, given the similarities with the recent 2012 style correction, I think we could be leading up to a much larger bubble top than 2018. I don't just mean higher, I mean more parabolic and for longer than 2017. Think 2012 leading into 2013 with a harsh "fake top" correction around $100K. Fiat collapse style parabolic, all the signs are there to take Bitcoin to an incomparable value with fiat.

VPVR outlook: "This is fine". Long-term trend-line (based on Weekly candle highs) says: "Maybe I'm support, you've broken me". Still bullish.



Reference: https://twitter.com/Crypto_Bitlord/status/1226745282974515200

My current TA for today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvZ7K_0_SiY

You can buy goods on this forum or "other websites" and remain anonymous as a buyer, but ultimately if the goods are physical and requires shipping, it's not possible to remain anonymous (to the vendor at least) if you consider the simplest ways in which goods are sent.



Agreed, it's merely a problem that requires a logical solution. While it won't be possible for WO users who want to receive chocolate to not reveal their shipping address, it would be possible to not associate these shipping addresses with a specific user. For example:

1. Create a file on something like mega.nz with an encrypted key, that reveals an email address to contact you for the chocolate.
2. Send PMs to WO users with a specific email address to contact you to receive chocolate.
3. Wait for users to contact you and deliver the chocolate to unknown certified WO hat members.

Therefore, only WO hat members will be able to contact you for chocolate, without having their name/address associated with their username.
This would be the solution for users to remain pseudo-anonymous, true anonymity would not be possible for obvious reasons.



I also like the dead drop idea though  

---

+1, I would like chocolate now please 

That's weird, I was expecting most people here to say that this is last time we see sub $10K levels  



This makes me more bullish  

Let's clear out this level and move on.

For anyone looking for bearish hopium of re-testing the 200 Day MA around $8,900, there is currently an unconfirmed head & shoulders pattern forming on the 4hr.
Price would need to breakdown below $9,600 to confirm the measured move to $8,800 (approximately -8%). This pattern could easily be invalidated by a move above $10,300.



Bare in mind, we are above the VPVR point of control support at $9,785, with strong volume support around $9,300 level. Price medium and long-term remains bullish however, even a breakdown to $8,800 would still be bullish for me and act as a buying opportunity. Now the 50 & 200 Day golden cross has confirmed, statistically speaking the risk reward of buying the re-test of the 200 Day MA is historically very high, compared to simply buying the 200 MA re-test. Traders would lap up this long opportunity imo.



If there is a breakdown to the measured move, expect strong buying support around $8,550 - $8,950, where price previously consildated.

To follow up on yesterdays TA, we currently are breaking down from the head & shoulders pattern with a close below the neckline.


I have however channel the parameters of my parallel channel as I'm not convinced this bullish channel is invalidated yet*, especially now the 200 MA on the 4hr is also providing support.



We did find support from the VPVR point of control around $9,300 as expected, but this level will need to hold to avoid falling to the 50 or 200 Day MA (dotted lines).

For reference sake, this is the sort of "unclean" bullish channel I'm thinking could remain intact given the current correction:



A fall below the 200 MA would very much invalidate this outlook and would increase the likelihood of re-testing the 200 Day MA and longer term VPVR control. Still bullish.

Damn that's a nice job. This reminds me I need one of these real ones soon. Barely got any fiat left anymore, what's left is put aside for btfd
Cash is crap, but Bitcoin debit cards are great.

Edit: Is this the wrong round though...? Looks legit to me.



Source: https://www.coinbase.com/card

$9770, the 61.8 fib retracement is a crucial make or break moment imo. Above it, we'd be clear to $11,577, below it, we'd look go return to the 0.5 at $8501 (as well as 50 Week MA).



Regardless, even falling back down to the 0.382 at $7,231, where the 100 Week MA is priced (as well as $4 off from the hash ribbons buy signal), would still be bullish.
Needless to say, we are still very much in an uptrend.

Core devs discussing privacy & scaling livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGUH-lKO0k0

The legend of Peter Schiff wins the "Most clueless Bitcoin no-coiner" award at Unconfiscatable conferene

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JRLv1gHgLQ&t=112

Acording to the simpsons (disclaimer shown briefly)  

Looking like a nice day of the week to dca into some satoshis 

CME chart is looking interesting, currently testing both the 200 MA on the 4 hr as well as the Daily chart (that are bullishly sloping upwards):



Volume has been dropping off, so as per usual expecting volatility to kick in based on bouncing of these support levels or falling to the "gap" of $8.5K:



Looks like it might be time to flush out some weak hands to make the next leg up stronger:



HODL

We are now entering the "buy zone" in my opinion, between $8.2-$8.8K, 200 day MA & 50 Week MA will act as strong support:



While we're currently bouncing off the "extended" bear channel resistance trendline, $8.5K would be the average target, based on the fib retracement:


Also, the 4hr TD seuential is signalling a buy on a 9, at the 200 Day MA none the less:



BTFD.

We've broken $8.5K and made new lows, but the 1hr is saying "don't short me" and "take short profits".
Will be interesting to see how this plays out with the 50 Week MA at $8420* $8478. Macro traders will get pretty bullish over that price imo.



The "bigger picture" is telling me we've reached both the 0.5 fib retracement levels of $8462 and $8501, which I believe will be defended due to the confluence of support:



Am expecting a rebound from here or $8.2K volume support either way  

*Chart updated with 50 Week MA being tested on 1hr chart

On closer inspection the CME support confluence is notable. TD 9 buy signal, VPVR point of control, bouncing off the gap, 50 Day MA:



Just need some volume to return but institutions are panic selling other markets right now 
Happy HODL days  

Not the best extrapolation, but enlarging the 2015 breakout of the accumulation zone (from the 200 Week MA to the swing high) - to the 200WMA lows and highs of the 2019 rally - lines up nicely with current prices. Not sure how relevant this is, but it gives a rough idea of what could occur in the coming months (as opposed to a major pump or dump).



This would also suggest a much longer cycle this time around if relevant, or at least a longer consolidation period than 2016. If you think about how much further price rallied, compared to in 2015, then this would make also make proportionate sense logically speaking. The green arrow represents where in the extrapolation we are, if the consolidation takes proportionately more time in this cycle. Notably this is also at the 21 Week MA, as was the case in February 2016 when price found support prior to consolidating higher. This also suggests there may only be a small dip after the halving, instead of the "buy the hype, sell the news" type correction that most traders are anticipating (and occurred previously).

This tweet caught my eye today  Third time BTC has experienced a leap year day.



This also means the halving is less than 3 months away 

Source: https://twitter.com/BtcThis/status/1233723605915258881

Love this hoody-wearing guy for his TA. Always manages to see the small details while focusing on the bigger picture:


Shame it's on the 30 minute chart, but was starting to consider whether the 4hr bear flag is a form of accumulation pattern on smaller time-frames.
Either way, regardless of being out of proportion, the similarities are there. The measured move target from my calculations would be around $9,500.

My TA for the day, in order to contradict my worst case scenario to around $7.4K, which I think is less likely. Not yet confirmed with a Daily close, but keeping a close eye on this one.


Not yet started new topic yet, waiting to see if the histogram confirms the seller exhaustion by the end of the day.

A little under $100K specifically. But why not? It's on track still.

Starting to see a rounding bottom half formed on the 4hr. The green arrow is where the pivot is could be based, the golden line would be the trajectory to hold to confirm:



Looking at the longer-term time-frames, the Weekly is finding support at key support, the Daily is losing bearish momentum:


[/charts]

BTFD & HODL

Some more hopium for the day looking at the 1 hr...



Ideally; test 200 Day MA today & get rejected, find support from rounding bottom support, break above 200 Day MA, find support again from it/rounding bottom, move up higher  

Technically it was a near perfect gravestone doji, but bullish none the less as it was at the lows of a sell off 



Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doji.asp

Save image -> as jpg -> as png

Time to start getting greedy WO bull gang 



BTFD

Zooming into the short-term 1hr time-frame for all the panic sellers out there, the base of macro support at $7,800 is being defended by high volume.



The RSI is attempting to leave oversold conditions, while this does leave room to move lower, this is also considered a buy opportunity by price strength metrics (even if between 30 and 40 the RSI is still bearish). The MACD has notably bull-crossed a few hours ago, though yet to see any relevant follow through. CMF remains negative, though on each dip attempts to move back to neutral area with bullish divergence (due to increase in buy pressure), as opposed to moving lower (with an increase in selling pressure).

As far as I can tell, the "worst case scenario" is currently playing out, without much room for prices to move lower (based on oversold metrics alone):


If you're selling at these prices, based on the shorter-term price movements, you're doing it wrong 

BTFD

Bitcoin buy signal!

BNP Paribas just blocked transfers to Coinbase 
Co-operative Bank did the same at $6.5K 

Guys, I hate to say it, I've been a long-term believer in BTC for a long time but it might be time to panic sell everything?
I'm joking lolz.

Don't worry, have liquidated over 90% of my capital now into Bitcoin    Arguably I panic sold my fiat  


Did you see the small print? Super close to testing and bouncing from logarithmic growth curve at $7413.  Everything is fine, just posting that for the lolz
If it breaks below this s-cruve, then you might not hear from me for a few years though  

Bitcoin holding up well against the S&P today... Looks like the "correlation" (that is very low) is wearing off now 



Bouncing off the 200 Day MA with a 6% move upwards, always a bullish sign in my mind 

It's mainly just people such as yourself questioning why there are so many pages to catch up on 

Quick shout out to all WO bulls & bears for helping to make me into a Sr Member today. My 250th merit came from this post megalolz*  

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Thanks nutildah, though I now formally accuse you of "poaching rank ups", after also making me into a Full Member a few months ago  

*Read the small-print!

Done... confirmation available on Saturday #loyceclub
I didn't think you cared? Edit: PM'd you too bro.

Good call... I just longed a small position with 10x leverage at $7.8K, stop loss at the lows  
Willing to get this position rekt.

Leaving this here for reference sake... everything is fine, on schedule for the halving whether this is the bottom, or we go a little lower...



Source: https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1237480799445733376

My outlook is that this pre-3rd halving price action looks more like the 2nd halving than the first, but make of it what you will.

There goes all my fiat  95% in now folks... do or die moment is here!

Just throw it in already! Imagine your not at a casino table and take the chance  
This is not financial advise!

Cross-posting here to notify WO capwearers:


Thoughts?

No:


Yes do nothing. You'll be fine. You are adhering the etiquette. To rebel, please re-save your avatar as a jpg and re-upload. Thanks!

Archived!

I recommend contacting LoyceV asap, he has the resources for this.
Edit: And he loves to scoop and scrape.

Rebellion to gang etiquette either takes some effort, or a lack of understanding of saving images.
In your case, I don't think you're ready for rebellion. Sorry.

We just came $60 from this thread being deleted  


Shh, you'll upset the miners. They are very touchy about these things.

They capitulate.

And the rest 

Yup this is actually starting to worry me too... Even if a 40% drop in a day doesn't seem sustainable, it's not a good sign mid/long term if price is now in the $4K level.
We really need to close the Day above $6K levels in the next 15 minutes  

I wasn't planning on it til we broke $5.5K, now it seems appropriate!

Edit: Starting to think there are more 2019-2011 sellers cashing out... If you think about the traditional markets bull run since 2018 crash, it wouldn't surprise to see smart money coming into Bitcoin at the same. Now they are cashing out on stocks in a big way (since 2018), it wouldn't surprise me some of these "early adopters" are getting all out.

The volume speaks for itself, more volume today than we've seen since.... forever?

After a 38% drop yesterday, an appropriate time to post what is believed to be the first ever HODL meme:



Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=375643.msg4023137#msg4023137

On the flipside, just noticed by m₿ p/h at work for dollar cost averaging has nearly doubled  

Last chance to buy below the 200 Week MA  

Feeling neutral today, neither bullish nor bearish. Starting to see some relevance in the charts now, for anyone who finds more philosophical-based TA relevant (feel free to tell me I'm a moron). Looking at the breakdown from around $8K to the new lows of $3.85K, the 50% retracement is around $5.9K, with the VPVR point of (local) control at $6K, this is the current resistance and "dead cat bounce" sell levels, with the volume and fib retracement confluence likely to act as strong resistance:



While retracing 50% of the capitulation is expected, the manner in which this happened (quicker than the 50% drop), gives me a lot of hope. Closing the day back above $6K would make the Weekly candle bullish (longer wick at the bottom than the candle body). Of course, a lot could happen over the weekend, but a break above $6K would signal further bullish momentum, regardless of current volitility, liquidity or volume (fibs are still fibs, volume is still volume, MAs mean very little right now).

On the Weekly chart, we did "nothing more" than wick down to the the 2 year-long strong volume support, that imo was likely the best buying opportunity for a tiny minority of investors (in the past 2 years). Try and look at things from a different perspective, if we had taken 1-3 months to get to this level, while this would obviously be very bearish (closing below the 200 Week MA around $5.5K - never done before) by bouncing strong from it back to $6K with a 50% move upwards over the course of a few weeks, this would actually be completely normal. The fact that these moves occured, both up and down, within 48 hours, is of low significance to me right now, merely indicating an increase in volatility that may or may not be sustained.



Somebody last night (can't remember who soz) kept saying "we could be back to $8K by tomorrow" and other such bullish hopium, but the reality is this member was completely right. Just as we reached $4K levels, it was clearly no time to sell, as prices had great potential to bounce back to the breakdown level of $5.5K, as we did, even if no-one expected this to happen within an hour - it did. Don't be surprised to see BTC make another 50% move upwards back to $8K, or below $3K, within an hour.

There's little to no point in me indicating the bearish suggestion right now, it's somewhat obvious. If we break $3.85K we likely break below $3K.

Word errors included.... still hungover courtesy of eddie13's great suggestion of getting blind drunk last night

Critical moment for the day on the 1hr chart... closing above $6K would be uber bullish in my opinion:



Exciting times ahead   Tone Vays claims: "The Bottom is Most Likely In!" - 90% chance he said
(But that we will likely drop below $5K again, one more time)

Yup Belgium went on restaurant and gathering lock down from last night too... it's getting eery on the streets now, still fear is at 0% by my personal statistics, people seem ok.  
UK is stupid, there is a litterally a clown that makes decisions as if it was a comedy show. Probably the only reason why BJ didn't decide to take anything seriously is because he doesn't want to align with "European standards" to offend brexit fools. The UK is not fine at all, it's just a few days behind  

Silly Billy, you made me laugh   If this is case (I'm not really following UK politics, only that BJ is a clown, makes sense he devolves responsibility), then the fundamentals of being a island country won't save it from the reality of a worldwide pandemic, it would only slow it down at best. Probably the EU states are doing the right thing at the moment, even if I'm searching for rebellious parties that ignore the wishes of the state, I do get it. "Better to be safe than sorry", as Italy would probably say. The fact the UK has it's own currency is pretty relevant right now too, they clearly wouldn't want regulations to affect the value of the pound, as opposed to EU countries doing what feel is best, regardless of the Euro.

You can't take action when it's too late is the point, I feel a lot of measures put in place are in order to try prevent things getting a lot worse, as opposed to waiting for it to get worse.


I thought the issue was with Europe now? Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I believed what Trump says which is foolish.

Am also thinking the same thing... $4.2K, $4.5K and $4.8K (33% positions) would be a good spread to get yourself back in to (slightly less) than what you had before. If you don't want to try and "time to bottom" as it were, and simply get your position back if that's what you're hoping for. It's definitely what I'm considering if we close above $5.5K this week, not that you should follow my non-financial advise what-so-ever, I've been wrong enough this past month

I wish you the best either way, we've all been there. I panic sold in 2017 (when $6K went back down to $5K, before going to $20K), because I had previously got in at $5K before it went down to $3K so wanted to get out "break-even" and not risk having my money drop 40% again. In the end I had to get back in around $7.5K which sucked. Obviously this was completely different amidst the middle of a parabolic bull-run, and I think you'll be fine getting back in, but I feel your pain none the less.

At least now you will have stronger hands when you become a coiner again   Better to have panic sold at $4.5K, with the likelihood of having the opportunity to get back in, then to have held on til some lower level and panic sold then. I think everyone should panic sell once, in order to learn from the mistake. Better now than later.

You're right, as per usual, nobody should be playing around with all or nothing, but this is the reality for a lot of people. From my perspective I only learn from my mistakes - therefore I had to panic sell once in order to learn. Glad I did it then to be honest, rather than in 2018 when Bitcoin broke $5K (and would of seen my money go from 4x to break-even again). Sure it would of seemed like a good idea at the time, but I'd be kicking myself in 2019 and would of likely panic bought at $10K+ as a response. So sure this isn't the same for everyone, but if you're someone who learn's from your mistakes, or needs to make them in order to learn (points at self), the experience will give you the stronger hands you'll need in the future. I am one of those people, I can't speak for mindrust or others but I know I'm not the only one who's like this.

To clarify I'm not suggesting anyone panic sell for the experience (it's gut wrenching stuff), but that if it's an inevitability for your learning process, due to your personality, then it's a needs must situation, hence "getting it out the way". Of course better money/risk management would be better than all or nothing for sure, no-one is doubting this rationality, but bare in mind many investors in the space have an "all or nothing" attitude that they will likely never shake off. When I'm in, I'm more or less all in, others I don't feel comfortable.

Reference: I'm 90% in and more than comfortable with that, any less than 80% I wouldn't be right now. I can't stand the thought of losing 20% of my money (see cap for fruther reference)

For reference sake, from where I'm based, they are only "closed" to the public, not contractors for example. Most restaurants remain open for takeaways (90%), chip shops and takeaway places seem to be completely ignoring the regulation (or unaffected by it) and are still welcoming in the public . The public seem to able to stand in these places, but not sit down (or consume food), or use the toilet to wash their hands (from the sink)   Maybe the capital or Wallonia is bureaucratically different though.


Belgians are far from responsible, just look at the country - it's literally been torn in half! While most of the population can't even speak their own native languages and have to resort to English it's embarrassing. None of the lack of responsibility surprises me. That said, I hope your not a Flemmish nationalist otherwise I'm gonna get negged  

Just checked my trust page, think I got away with that. Was worried for a moment. I've been punched for less here


Don't get me wrong all the restaurants are screwed for income for sure, wasn't arguing that. Hence the "only" being in italics, but obviously didn't reference this relevance. My point was that they're not closed, even if they're losing money now. You're right that the more takeaway places appear fine, appreciating the extra income right now it seems, but it's coming at from the expensive of the fancy resto's for sure. They aren't happy about it all. Hadn't considered the knock-on effect for the farmers (naively), good point, they will also be screwed over. I work in the food industry at the moment so I hear a lot of feedback, restaurants are stressed af at the moment.

Fortunately my gym is the great outdoors, so I still get my 250km cycling a week done  
Still can't find any rebellious corona parties though, might have to go to NL haha.

I was joking, maybe not obviously, but also;


By less I mean for saying something less insulting, by here I meant Flanders. Capitalized for your sake
Flemmish nationalists can be very "sensitive" about these issues, and therefore unpredictable with their behavior. Glad to see you don't suffer from this 
I otherwise PM'd you.

Getting rejected by the 200 Week MA and volume point of control on the hourly time-frame isn't promising imo, it was looking like a nice breakout for a moment there.



I also feel looking at smaller time-frames when the Weekly candle is about to close in 10 hours is somewhat redundant...

That's all I needed to see to confirm what I previously thought, so thanks a lot for sharing
+1

Looks bearish! Institutional volume selling the open... ain't checked stocks, but that "micro correlation" Bitcoin is suffering from appears to be continuing (that of bearish selling pressure). Just checked S&P, big bounce on the open, nothing relevant seen on Bitcoin = Even more bearish short-term, always long-term bullish though  
Someone please merit this chart I'm out, then BTFD. More info from someone paying more attention than me right now.
PS, updated this though: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188537.0 

Who's buying the dip then? Bitcoin under $5K is a 75% discount folks. As LFC said a few days ago... don't complain later on that you didn't stack satoshis at these cheap prices.

While the stock market bounces in a dead cat manner, and Bitcoin corrects and re-tests $4K level support, long-term this is actually very good imo. I think stocks have further to go down (long-term, like another 50% over the coming months), I don't think BTC has much further to go down (long-term, like $2.5K would be my lowest target, unlikely to be reached too). Bitcoin breaking the correlation with global markets is a great thing, even if not in the direction we might all immediately hope for in the short-term.

BTFD  
Not financial advise, but underlining BTFD hehe

Does this means you didn't buy your coins back?

Thought you put a limit buy back in at $4,500? Either way, while I don't think there is any rush in buying sub $5K, there's always that small chance that price bounces back strong at any time that everyone needs to be prepared for (just like breaking $3K like the chart you referenced or ones I published 6 months ago now: be prepared for either scenario).

Quick scenario; Imagine if tomorrow the stocks plunged back down off the back of today's dead cat bounce... what could happen to the price of Bitcoin is somewhat unpredictable, but I'd expect the inverse, like today's "decoupling"  

It's hard to deny that people are buying the dip right now on the smaller time-frames*, even if prices will eventually go lower or re-test $4.5K again:



Some nice volume coming to the buy sub $5K again by looks of it  
Either way: Don't panic buy or panic sell right now  

*Whether this is simply day traders or long-term investors remains unknown so far.

Forgot to reply yesterday (too drunk, housemates birthday ) but please NEVER apologize for posting your charts or ideas in this thread - especially if I disagree with it. There is little to no benefit in everyone believing the same thing will happen, especially when a majority are usually wrong.

For example, while me and exstasie disagreed a lot in the recent past during the mini-bull (dead cat bounce) last year, this was beneficial because we could both benefit from each others alternative perspectives when shared. In the past few months, we have been sharing the same opinions a lot more often, and therefore the only benefit is seeing the same picture from a slightly different angle - therefore there is almost no benefit to either of us for this, or anyone else for that matter, as it only entrenches our own perspectives further.

Hence, often a don't have a response to exstasie's TA, because all I would have to say is "I agree, thanks for sharing", which I find better said with merit than words.

TL:DR: Please continue posting your charts and opinions, especially if they contradict my opinions  

Ah interesting, thanks for clarifying. You're completely right a breakout merely means a move in the price in one way of another, I made the assumption my bad, not yours. Thanks for not apologizing this time. You were also right the a breakout was imminent in that sense from the triangle pattern. And yes otherwise alcohol is very useful at the moment if you can't be bothered to pay too much attention to lower time-frames in play, you can thank eddie13 for this great suggestion, it's served me very well (apart from the hangovers I am left with when I go to work, but they wear off eventually - even if people think I've got corona for a moment before I explain I just got blind drunk). Just make sure to lock yourself out of any trading account or exchange and you can have a laugh as price crashes  

I otherwise love ascending or descending triangles, I don't like symmetrical triangle as I find them to be subjective continuation patterns with relatively little meaning apart from anticipating a breakout, or as likely a fakeout, so serve no utility. But also, triangle on smaller time-frames are always very dodgy imo. That said, if we can re-test the $5985 resistance level, basically break through $6K, then I'd start to look at the argument for a bullish ascending triangle on smaller time-frames. Think I'm drunk again, looking forward to your future charts posted in the best speculation thread on here

I'm all out at the moment, price is moving sideways and I have strict rules for triangles that don't apply yet (3 points of contact, for each resistance & support, including a perfect horizontal and not crossing a single candle body on the time-frame drawn). I'm so pedantic with my triangles, but fortunately this means I rarely acknowledge them until perfect  

I'll otherwise call bullshit on any smaller time-frame TA on a Sunday, leading upto the Weekly close, you should know this about me. While I find the smaller-time frames interesting when there is lack of clarity on the Daily/Weekly, I'm really all about the longer term time-frames, a trade I can hold for a few weeks or a month, rather than a matter of days.

Nice. Fortunately I (may or may not) live with a bar, so we are fully stocked... though can't sell any of it  
Think we got a good a month's worth of alcohol prior to cancelling events, so all good here  
Though financially gunna get rekt for now  


Hell no, just out of TA. Daily/Weekly ain't telling me that much, I don't trust smaller time-frames, price is moving sideways it seems until proven otherwise.
Still btfd, all good here  

You're also in lockdown if your not in Belgian   My escape routes are quickly closing in around me  
I hope you didn't spend more than 30 minutes in a shop, this is now forbidden. I read some tabloid toilet paper based newspaper claiming that the reason we are on lockdown is because some of us were naughty and didn't respect the previous restrictions, instead attending "lockdown parties"  

Belgium corona lockdown is great, just went for one of my nicest ever 50km cycle rides. Traffic lights become irrelevant after 9pm it's liberating! Ironically, not many less people out on the streets this evening compared to previous evenings, much notably less cars... lots of people also having a walk for "exercise". Don't know what it's like in other cities... but not much has changed here apart from more restaurants are shut now. Night shops still open though, so enough people going out "shopping" it seems  

Liquor ban, that's harsh! Think I'd also take up smoking if I didn't already in your situation, or try smack of something (not a suggestion). Ketamine must be getting popular in your neck of woods by now for sure! Grimey shit. Starting to realise I don't have f all bacci   Usually I'm stocked with 1-2 kg rolling for heading back to the uk, but ain't got plans to go nowhere soon from cheap bacci land. Also feel like it'll be a waste of money right now, it'll be the first product to get looted hard if the night shops close imo. I'd feel like such a clown putting a big chunk of fiat down on that if there's a free for all in the near future. Either that, or take the opportunity to give up again. Addictions are no good in apocalypses, they will slow you down, make you weak and vulnerable to prey.

Starting to design my own "mad max" style front bumper for my mate's muscle car, as a safety net. He's got the wheels for a decent looting vehicle, need a proper metal reinforced bumper, ideally with some good spikes, for it if the time comes. Something that we can get in and out of places no problems, through most hardened materials, no parking outside nonsense. I don't think I'm really considering the "mid-term" situation here of shit being bad and getting better or worse anymore, I'm just planning for the worst case scenario right - shit totally going down over this. Imagine if you knew there was a chance civilization would starting crumbling in the near future, but you didn't prepare yourself for it? Your human animal instincts would be replaced by domesticated obedience, it's no good.

Also need to get a rifle, don't want to wait a few months to try and get hold of one, that'll be too late. Already put myself down as night shift guard for the gardens here that means we can live sustainability. I'm totally in the right place despite atm the borders closing in around me. Need some good weaponry to defend that shit though, hungry people are crazy. Fortunately, I've long considered that this civilization will inevitably collapse, just like every version prior to it, so have been mentally prepared for over a decade now. Just didn't consider it could be over this stupid virus, or happen in my lifetime to be honest.

Not necessary.


This is true, there is a positive in this: knowing how much you want to be invested.


Don't apologize, it was your decision and shouldn't concern anyone else.
Did you fuck up? Are we really going to moon, or just coming back down further?


This is a really good minset 


Greed takes over everyone, try not to take it personally.

Ok. Take care.

Do you ever wonder why more newbies don't come into the Bitcoin space? Maybe, just maybe, quite possibly, they are just genuinely trying to join the "community" here try and engage with it. That was their first post, as a sign that maybe new investors are entering the space. I'd say if this was the case, you might of made them feel that the community is too insular for them

Imagine if he has no idea what merit is, he'd now be researching it, probably realizing how cliquey this community can be at times
I always respect your opinions, but I'll also say when I disagree.

At least now we'll know if they were begging for merit all along. I think most bounty hunters would go for this deal
But otherwise, lots more "average joes" are at home now, no doubt more on the internet, probably thinking "shit the economy is going to collapse at this rate, wtf am I going to do". Oh look, some stupid nerds think they programmed money to solve the problem - many hours later - "might buy a small amount, just in case". Adds up to me at least.
I don't expect many other investors to be buying at these levels anyway, the charts still look like a bit of a shit show.