Nice data on Cup and Handle. Thanks.

This is more along the lines of my thinking.

Why is $180 being thrown around ? Am I missing something here ?

Where's this 7% coming from?

Indeed. The underlying issues behind the announcement are probably more worrying.

Two weeks is not a long time, but they are probably thinking more along the lines "mmhmm mtgox has been targeted now.. will it ever be safe again??"

I know I would have that feeling if it were me trapped inside. Trust does not come and go. Once it's gone, there's no coming back.

Wait a sec now.. so you're saying they gonna pay over 100% annually?

Are these numbers correct?

CampBX is now on par with Bitstamp.

Only Btc-e remains higher...

Man low volume is bad bad bad.

Suave.

He just called me a whore in polish.

Nice fella. Not shady at all..

We've been up and down 100 these last few weeks. My real fear is if we go below 90 or even your 82 ish.

Double digits could set in for a  long time.

Yup, it looks bleaker every day. I agree.

Let's hope it really is a "two week" period..

So we got like.... 2 weeks to get to 20,000?

I don't see them going away, but they will lose some market share no doubt.

Yes. This is the sad truth behind it all. I can feel the political pressure building up.

Loved this graph.

Can someone please explain to me what are each of the 3 or 4 graphs in the lower area?

Who are these whales slapping the market around?

It'd be lovely if any of these whales could make a guest appearance here (even in a throwaway account), and tell us a couple stories..

Cmon guys.. I know one of you out there is bound to be reading this...

If I were the one playing, I would love nothing more than to watch live the reactions of you all......

This is one heavy piece of information.

They way I see it this information is only important to Bitcoin insiders.. The general public can not infer one bit of meaning out of that change of policy by Citi, hence the lady tells it nonchalantly like it is. It must've been told to her unimportantly, and she just transmitted it.

I don't know if you are a Reddit user or not, but I am.

It's a pretty different place from everywhere else on the net. And though in reality it is as anonymous as this forum is, everything in there is just more transparent, you can easily background check everyone (you can also do it here..it'll take longer i guess..).

Anyway... the guy telling the story checks out pretty good imho....

Ok. Just good.

But hey, he's not so active. It's not a crime.

His account is 3 months old, he's posted all along those 3 months on unrelated stuff, on NZ stuff and also some pro btc related stuff and even some pro mtgox stuff...

Unless he's on a very elaborate 3-month play where he built a persona waiting for this exact gox 2 week crisis to further defame them... he checks out for me.

So what happens when you buy BTC with those 10k and now you don't have 10k anymore and you're lying in your statement..?

How is this handled with forex?

( just curious, not an american..)

Touche.

Do go on.. tell us more..

What if the only focus and objective of said coin were to keep your money out of your country's banking system and out of your Gov's grasp?

If I created an alt-coin where there is no mining, only proof of work (with fees), and coins are generated when someone buys them from a centralized organization. All coins accountable, so no "pre-mining" or dev advantage..

It's basically money 2.0 with a fresh start without frb.. I could call it.. Money-alt ?

It would enable all kinds of shady business tho..

Even though we all agree, people are morons, Ripple is still too complex/hard to understand.

They are not doing a good job on the communication side of things, and they are not providing education at all.

When I first received my XRP, it was just an email, and then it goes more or less like this:

Email: 1k xrp there you go.. bam..
Now you're in Ripple wallet looking at this Trust tab, which you have no idea how it works, but hey you got XRP, sweet!
Now you come to the forum and some guy is doing a giveway: FREE XRP !! TRUST ME FOR 100USD TO GET 100 XRP !
And you can guess the rest...

If you have a new, different, weird paradigm shifting currency type/model/debtsystem/whatever; you better do a hell of a job explaining users (and I'm really talking about the layman here.. not forum rats like us) how to use it first, and how not to get scammed second.

EDIT: heck we don't even know what to call Ripple...

I kinda feel this aura of general consensus that we're going to double digits for a while..

If most are feeling this way though, why aren't we going down?

Who's providing the support?

Steeeeeeeeeeep.

Hey smoothie, just curios, are you using the same hologram provider as Casascius?

Save that video before Youtube brings it down.

Yes. Volume might even be lower...

What happens to the ASIC mining industry if the price goes below 50?

Is it still sustainable? They (ASIC makers) operate at huge margin right now.. right?

I disagree on that. I'm certain all currently ordered miner devices would instantly become unprofitable.

I was talking more about ASIC companies themselves. Can they handle a correction; fabricate and sell at a 50% discount and remain profitable?

Less than 6k to 100 and dropping...

The last upport walls to the rescue at 100. Can they resist?

Agreed. Even if we crash secret big forces at play won't let it go below 60.

Get ready for diarrhea.

I really thought 100 was gonna hold till we received final news for the Gox issue, either way it would go.

I guess things are really really bearish atm.

80 will surely hold...right? right??

About what happens after these two weeks. Will everything go back to normal for them or are they getting f*cked by the banks, and the usd locked in some more time ?

Where do you see the larger support at 82?

But what is the realistic number?

I don't even know how to fairly assess this. I mean, even if 90% of the market is speculation money, that's still market.. and every single market out there has it.

And I wonder; if we were to magically remove all speculation money, where would we be? pre 2011 boom price?

How much btc is actually circulating in the economy as opposed to trading, speculation and hoarding?

If we remove speculation, there is little to no market left.

Where do you stand Adam?

Target price for Jan 2014?

+1

No, they are separate things: the gap is a product of the USD lock in, fear and the possibility of arbitrage against other exchanges. It won't go until the withdrawals are restored.

I've been following that Sir Bits for a while. He seems down to earth, has good data and makes interesting observations.

Don't know who he really is though.

Sell sell sell (and what phoenix said).

But it's only a USD issue, why wouldn't they be taking EUR or YEN?

Plus you can do an international bank transfer instead of a SEPA one, and that shouldn't take more than 48hs.

I kinda agree with QuestionAuthority that Gox is being artificially sustained. I'm not so sure who's doing it tho.

Trying for a breakout as we speak.

Interesting fights !

96 wall just got eaten.

Just 100. Went down to 0.315. Just refilled.

I know but consider volume < 10k and this being deadtown... sooome activity.. meh.. i'm bored..

Why are they rallying? They shouldn't be being so pegged to btc as they are..

Are you saying they wanna be THE GUY ?

I've been paying attention to this lately and noticing the exact same thing. Imho a big part of the buy side is fake. They are holding the price, all the while enabling sustained slow but regular dumps.

I was on your same boat.

Sold my shares two days ago before this final (hedging) push up. I regret it atm but I still believe they are definitely going into a bubble. Asicminer depends on the btc economy whether you like it or not. Sooner or later they will correct. In hindsight I was kinda rash on my decision to sell, but truthfully there's not much volume there so waiting for a trend change is pretty risky. I'd say be very cautious if you hold.

You really think we are already returning to normal in regards to Gox??

I highly doubt that. Gox has not said a word, and my impression is there won't be any good news to give in two days.

I think we are just seeing dumps and market moves, and that's what's really controlling the exchange spreads.

Why is everyone proclaiming trend reversal?

Support at 82 and 78 failed miserably, we are now below 200-ema and we are two days away from probably more bad news from Gox..

This is bottom? You guys really buying?

82, 80 and 78 failed miserably. In the past couple hours 5k were pulled out of 71 and 70.

If the 4k now holding 75 fall we might go all the way to 63 or even 55.

Someone just bought a lot of coin.

Indeed. Quite the minefield.

Funny but I'm not seeing any fear at all. The bounces and small bull traps are a given, no matter how things go; but my feeling is everyone is calmly and silently bracing for 55$. No fear, no panic, just waiting. We'll see what happens there, but first we gotta see how the quasi-good news from Gox are received.

Argentine here.

I'm gonna be painfully honest, but I've seen the "btc saviour of the 3rd world" used a lot and though I'd love nothing more than to agree with it, I've sadly come to the realization it is completely false.

Yes, at first BTC sounds ideal to countries like ours with devaluating currencies and hyperinflating economies, but the awful truth is there is no easy way for us to get BTC and no way to get it at market price. But even before that, we cannot get USD. We even got a black market for that, USD is expensive. If you get your USD as an Argentinian, you'll soon find out there is no way for you to inject it into one of the exchanges, they all require you to link a US or EU/Sepa bank, or a us payment system (dwolla,etc) or maybe use some retail moneypacks (which you guessed.. don't exist here). International bank wire from Arg have prohibitive costs.

Another sad truth is the fact we Argentinian's (and lots of other 3rd world countries) rely heavily solely on Paypal and CC's to buy internationally. We all know that's not happening for BTC, at least not on a regular basis, but truth be told, the BTC I was able to acquire at market price or closest to it I got them through Paypal, thanks to people who trusted me.

If we go through all this, and our btc investments do well, good luck getting those dollars back on the Argentine system. If you're a long bull like myself, that shouldn't matter for now at least..

Even if you disregard everything cost and acquisition related, another harsh truth is there's nothing I can do here in Argentina with my BTC other than use it as a (volatile) store of value. Again, sadly, over the last year I've also realized that bitcoin has placed all it's energies in building rich financial systems and infrastructure (very much like the ones we try to replace and prone to the same heavy abuse), all the while ignoring the development of a real economy and everyday commerce tools.

It's easy for big fish in the US or EU to buy huge loads of btc, and manipulate the market.
It's hard for small 3rd world guys to do 800 pesos = 90 usd = 1 btc, with fees all along and market markup.

The M-Pesa news sounds like a great step in the right direction,  I'll take that.

At the moment though, and it hurts to say, btc is still almost exclusively a financial platform, a very speculative one at that. Not nearly ready to go helping the 3rd world.

Spot on here again IAS. Your "QUICKENING" is even more formed now. Good job.

Can we please tone it down with the animated gifs and full size images?

This is starting to look like reddit.

You guys seen this already?

http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis.html

Can the chart he uses for his theory be generated by any tool out there?

I'm sorry but this is extremely short-sighted and worthy of someone with 0 trading knowledge.

We're talking profit here. Even for long bulls, more USD means more BTC. It's as simple as that. Whether you like it or not, he now has 1500 USD worth of extra BTC.

Being a long bull DOES NOT mean you have take every loss that BTC goes through. There will ALWAYS be times when having more USD is the better way to have more BTC.

Those puppies would've never gotten you that much.

I agree with Gizmoh here, hype is gone. I'm kinda more pessimistic though, thinking we might even see some 20~ coins...

I'm not so sure that would work. After a 51% we would essentially have two chains. An accidental 51% is complicated because everyone has to choose sides or be left out. Here they would assume control of their chain, but no one would want to catch up to that fork. We will all remain in our new btc-2 chain, and ignore the gov' controlled one.

At least that's how I understand it would go, but I'm no expert. Any blockchain guru out there can confirm?

Are you guys saying we're gonna bounce at 60-63 or that we already bounced at 65?

Someone just did a juicy 2k buy.

I have to say I sadly agree with some of your points regarding value, purchasing ability and market penetration. All these issues are showing a big fail in Bitcoin development over the last year, which I've been preaching about. The unregulated free for all anti-fiat currency of the future has merely become a financial platform for big fiat fishes. Most of the development has shifted towards that focus, ignoring usability and every day commerce.

I think, however, you're wrong in your conclusion.  Even if what you say happens and 99% of the people leave when/if we go below 50, that's REBIRTH, not death. The people left will then be in charge of steering the project back on track, hopefully in the right direction this time, but it may even take several tries of this whole process. If Bitcoin goes into a slumber, there's a reason for it, and it needs to be corrected. The fundamental values of the original concept will always be valid and valuable, up until the day there is a stronger crypto-currency or alt-money to compete with fiat.

And that's the bottom line, the demand for Bitcoin (outside of speculation), is in reality the demand for an (unregulated) alternative for gov' controlled fiat. As long as there is no bigger player in this segment, Bitcoin cannot die.

Man I was out a couple of days.. what happened?

Did Loozik make another spot on prediction?

Too many ASIC promises.

I  wanna see them working.

Yup. I'd like to see a lot more TA and a lot less of this.

Still makes no sense.

120k btc = 12 million dollars for a simple website that can be developed for a tiny fraction of the cost, generates little to no revenue and currently stale, with lots of competition popping up.

If big casino owners know one thing, it's not to give money away. Something's fishy here.

I predict new support points in the order book will be established based on the Satoshi bets.

Thus, I am detecting a winning pattern on this whole trading game and can guarantee buying opportunities coming up at 91, 85, 79, 73, 50, 48, 36, 24.

Get your fiat ready !

DISCLAIMER: These predictions have a 50% chance to succeed (1.9% house advantage).

AM has lots and lots and lots of sales, which I guess should account for that number.

Anyone know actual numbers on AM total sales?

It shows the order book. The amount of bid & ask orders.

You can see the order book live at Clark Moody's.

No one needs to sell, but every time you exit an investment and count your money; you inevitably reassess the current situation.

We are not talking here about blind investor drones, who go about automatically reinvesting as soon as they exit a position. These are real people who will consider and analyze any new position they might take.

Maybe the current situation does not merit re-investing. Even if this true for a minority, some amount of selling was bound to be had and it did happen already. We've yet to see how much it'll be in the end..

C'mon now.. you out of all people can not just say that... give us a graph !

Why are you guys so sure we ain't going back to 80?

I just see slow dragged sideways trading and uncertainty but my TA still says we're going down.

Argentine here again.

Yes and no. While what you say is technically true and possible, this is not what's really happening.
There is a very specific part of the equation which you don't know about. it's as follows:

We have official 1 USD = 5.2 Pesos and black market 1 USD = 8 Pesos. Credit cards are forced by Gov' to use official rate + 20%.

So:
(lets take a 100 usd btc for simplicity)

1. I buy 10 BTC with Credit Card for ~1000 USD = ~6000 Pesos ( official rate + 20% ) (and yes, buying BTC with CC is hard to come by...)
2. Sell my BTC for USD, withdraw to non-argentine CC or bank account.
3. Travel abroad ( Uruguay or any other place ). Take USD out of atm.
4. Sell 1000 USD in black market for 8000 Pesos. Profit. Start over.

Truth is though, btc is not needed at all for this whole arbitrage. It can simply be done with CC's and bank acc's from Arg and one other country. This is a USD / CC forced policy arbitrage, and not something that sprung out of bitcoin. No one in Argentina can buy BTC with pesos.

If you do that, you cannot sell the USD to the black market, because you can't get USD for your BTC inside Argentina (at black market rate).

This probably just means people are getting better abusing the system.

These are quiet hours lately.

What time is it over there?

Seems like everyone is on stand by until some kind of capitulation, but you know, things tend to go the other way when everyone is expecting the same thing.

Is Ripple actually gaining any traction as a payment network?

I've yet to see a single business accepting XRP or payment through Ripple network, or hear about any major/regular transaction going through it..

Are there any stats about this out there?

Yeah, I know all about XRP, I find it disgusting as well.

It is also the only reason they have the VC backing.

Big scheme if you ask me.

I was just wandering if they'd been through some recent growth which might have escaped me... but guess not, it's still the same bs.

Uhmm... so... we gonna retest 99-100?

While all of this may be true, you're forgetting about the underlying but core piece of information: Intel, the #1 chip maker in the world, is getting into the mining race. Time (and profit) will tell how serious they go about it.

But there's so much resistance.. What makes you so bullish? Are you thinking we going over 100?

Can I be 1337 too?

Back to 100.. let's see if it holds..

I cannot trust a rally in a market where people can't get the USD out.

Except for April, never has the price been more fake and artificial than right now.

That seems so simple and evident to me.

Why is the sentiment so bullish? Did I miss some big piece of news?

This is amazingly insightful, encouraging and worrying at the same time.

Goes to show that even after all possible TA, big players and powers from the shadows are playing a whole different game. We're just trailing the money here...
 

The RSI is also not looking good at all there.

Forum's slow for me too.

Are there site traffic stats anywhere?

so... umm.. "in 2 weeks"??

Why is everyone so prude and trigger happy on the censoring?

Blitz wants to make make a hundred wrong predictions....
Shrooms wants to dish on Blitz every time he appears....
Some people wanna astrology the shit out of TA...

SO WHAT?

Just say what you wanna say, and let the others do as well. Just please don't go full mode derail and get into a huge 6 page astrology cock-size discussion, create a new topic for that

And why are people asking others to leave the sub ??
That is the most passive aggressive. If you don't like the person in question, just hit Ignore.

I particularly enjoy having the opportunity to read extreme opposing opinions. Few things are more valuable in life than diversity.

Just make it about BTC and not ego please.

5k buy?

Only 10k to 115 though.. it can happen in the blink of an eye..

Someone ate a 1k chunk from 110. I think we might go a bit higher yet..

Any opinions or interesting data about LABCOIN ipo?

I think you need to look for the definition of a bubble. Bitcoin bubbles are textbook examples of economic bubbles.

This does not mean anything bad in and of itself. Every free market that is exposed to occasional hype, growth spurts, volatility and promising futures will undoubtedly go through one or several bubbles before it reaches any kind of price stability.

Yup, pretty much this. During the last move down to of BTC to 68, AM went from 3.5 to +5. It has since corrected back, with a little premium left in, probably accounted for by more people using it as a hedge.

Nowhere is it written in stone that this behavior will continue forever though. Maybe another asset takes it's place next time.

That's all post-bubble TA. The bubble has, by then, burst.

There's this guy Didier Sornette, who's working on bubble prediction algorithms with his team, the Financial Crisis Observatory in the ETH in Zurich. They are actively predicting bubbles as we speak, putting the predictions in encrypted files to be released 6 months later when/if the asset has popped. One of these predictions was the April bubble...

Obviously, the algo is not disclosed, but he claims one if it's main indicators when observing an asset is the passage from linear (basically fundamental value driven) to exponential growth (spec/hype driven).

Of course, if I would merely base my trading on this alone, I would have to short every time big news come out, but hey.. it's something to consider..

For real. This Walsoraj was supposed to be the BULL version. He looks quite apocalyptic now (though I kinda agree with him).

Can't stop myself either. He really is a BTC multimillionaire. So jelly

I love the positive attitudes, but I gotta be real honest here.. so much talk about giving BTC away WHEN we hit some future ATH number... How many times have I heard that already?

If you were not giving them away when the price was $30 or $120 or even now at $350, you will certainly NOT give them away at 10k.

If you are truly in the business of disruption, the time is now. Not when we are all rich.

If there is a battle for disruption between Hoarding vs Spending, SPENDING will be more disruptive 99 times out of 100.

This is no crash.

Everyone is coldly calculating and waiting for a crash and cheap coins.

These are not the conditions for PANIC. I sometimes wonder and think we won't be seeing any more big panic runs for a few years.

At this point, instead of acceptable or not, I wonder about INTENTIONAL or not.

Bottom at 267 is pretty high...

Are you saying that's it? Capitulation done?

Yup, they don't require ids for bitcoin payouts and you can also deposit USD anonymously.

A question for the technical savvy...  what''s the most accurate way to know at which exchange a move began?

Is there a way at all?

Idk guys..  for me, the longer this "DDOS" gets, the more likely it is not a DDOS at all.

A DDOS is not something you can keep going forever you know.. It gets harder every passing minute, as the networks involved react and adapt.

Gox will GoxXx.

In that case their market volume might be bigger, but still, they definitely ARE hemorrhaging market share (even though they still hold quite a chunk). There's no denying that.

Honestly, this has got to be a joke.

It doesn't even make sense.. He's "not exactly sure what the problem is", but still determined it's DDOS. But wait, it's a DDOS that apparently can last forever. But wait, because apparently they can fix the supposed DDOS they don't understand in an amazing time frame of no less than 20 days ! Just wow.

Such a problem does not exist. Bullshit levels have crossed the 10 day average.

Yup, was thinking the same thing. I don't get it either.

Ok I get it now. I'm in the reverse situation. My country's currency is depreciatiang against USD so it's always good for me if I have come back to my currency. As stated above though, staying in coins is proving to be the best over and over.

FFS did someone really lose a wallet with 27000 BTC

I would never leave my bed again.

Is Gox working right now?

Everyone please, stop the madness !

I don't wanna see any more posts (probably americans) with people saying saying China wants to see the USD go down.

This is outright wrong, you need to stop reading this Wall observer and go read the newspapers first.

China is the absolute #1 investor in USD. Get your facts straight.

Yup, pretty much. It has been extremely conductive for their exporting strategy.


Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2013/10/06/what-if-china-stops-buying-u-s-government-debt/

FWIW though, in the last few weeks, this strategy appears to be shifting, but still, they hold most of the treasuries.

Who's Lucif ?

Seems like you are wanting to discuss semantics to intentionally miss the point.

The point is actually pretty simple: If the USD were to go down tomorrow, China's economy and CNY would be among the most affected, if not the most.

Remember also that they thrive on exports. Unless you count the 28 countries in the EU as a whole, the US is their biggest buyer.

The depreciation of the USD is not in their best interest right now.

You can not sustain an economic strategy completely oriented to being a cheap exporter when you're suddenly not cheap anymore.

Very long-term might be different, as I said above, they seem to be starting to shift their US bond holding to Gold and other assets.

Indeed. Tea party !

This.

Arbitrage is being done across ALL exchanges. The differences in prices are accounted for by the differences in deposit, withdrawal and trading fees, plus all fiat moving fees involved.

I think you are grossly underestimating the big players involved by now in BTC, and how easy it is for anyone with big money to have multi-national presence.

FFS I live in a 3rd world country and I can honestly tell you the amount of small and medium businesses here that operate with all three of a national, a US and a EU or Chinese bank account is huge. And they are simple businesses, not big money whales. It is true though, that arbitraging is the name of the game over here, with our devaluating currencies and black markets. But truth be told, it is nowhere near impossible.

 

Btc-e surpassed Bitstamp ??

What's that all about ?

We are overbought on most time frames tho.

How low we going?



550 tryng to hold... if not.. sub 500 coins???

wowow
we going down hard?

did they say anything bad already??

The US talking about "transparency and integrity".

Biggest laugh of the day.

"Virtual currency inherently NOT ILLEGAL."

The Secret Service guy is the worst.

He answer every single question however he wants. He's just spurting SS propaganda.

This is surely wrong. What about BTC-E ?

Are they not THE eastern european criminals   ??

Historic days.

500. The hearing. 900. Wow.

I went out for a couple hours to grab a bite and I lost all the climb to 900 and crash action...  

Does anyone know how big of a dump it was accross all exchanges?

Amazing. Congratulations !

A couple days ago, when the Gox guys fell asleep and trading was down for like 7-8 hours I noticed that during most of that time volume in BTCChina completely mimicked that of Gox and went to almost 0.

It is true that everyone kind of put everything on hold till Gox restarted, but the same thing did not happen on Bitstamp nor BTC-e.

I remember having all 4 bitcoinity screens open and noticing this. I will try to go back and see if I can find that moment.

EDIT: My conclusion at the time was that the same big money players are heavily arbitraging everywhere.

How hard is it to open a Chinese bank account ??

Or are you chinese?

I just got home. Did I miss the Other hearing??

It was today right?

Give her 1 BTC, tell her to reinvest and  that she can go crazy on the earnings.

She'll probably appreciate BTC more after she comes back with 0.

DID WARNER JUST IMPLY BITCOIN WILL DETHRONE USD???

Someone is moving Gox down very theatrically.

Sale still going....... He wants to be remembered.

Is Bitstamp fully operational again?

Can anyone tell me how long does it take for a bank transfer to get into BTC-E ?

Thanks but I am not interested in the FAQ answer.

I want to know the real practical answer from someone doing it on a regular basis.

Why??? They tend to have the lowest price.. you should only be taking cheap coins out btc-e..

Am I missing the hint ?

It has surfaced in several studies that the #1 (by a big margin) regret of people in their deathbed is they should've have stopped worrying about money/work sooner and spend more time with their families enjoying life.

You have more than enough. You will never regret your decision. You may end up with a couple less future millions but meh.. it's not really about that.

Haven't you heard ?? You have to do the opposite of what everyone is saying...

That's how smart money does it.

Yeah, sure. Soon.

I'm having the same dilemma a lot.

I've thought about it. In the end, the answer is: BUY.

It may not be this week, month, or year, but we'll surely be playing above 1k in 2015.

Why is everyone telling him to sell?

The advice should be: don't trade. Put it away for a long time, in cold secure place.

That'd be amusing. All markets would instantly collapse under the sheer burden of buys.

All kidding aside though, the other day I was thinking... the only possible scenario where BTC goes back to single digits is on its way back to 0 if the whole experiment fails.

You're not getting it.

Supply growing faster than demands does not mean more oil is being produced by decay. It just means that with new tech we're finding more of it now, and it is not so scarce as we once thought. The two latest big deposits found (Brazil and Australia, not Middle east !) are amongst the biggest ever found.

And as you say, we don't "need" to figure out artic drilling. It is done because it is profitable. You don't "need" to keep mining BTC, right?

The more ridiculously expensive the process is, the more profits to be made.

All this said, this whole scheme needs to die. The people behind these companies are the same people who control governments, law, energy, food industries, metal industries and the banking system. It's a closed circuit.

Hopefully BTC or its future follower is the path to disruption but.......  I feel these same hands are already tightening their grip here as well...

How big is the futures market?

Is icbit the only player?

At this point, I've stopped seeing them as 3 exchanges.

For me, it seems like the same big players are in all 3 (and China as well..), and they just don't care anymore. They will lead with whatever exchange they have the USD availaible in. So my guess is the leading exchange changes and will keep changing according to the rate at which the exchanges get their deposits accredited AND the given arbitrage plays at effect in that moment.

Forget the days of a leading exchange. Once arbitrage is settled in and big whales have money across all exchanges (essentially meaning now), each move can come from anywhere; which in turn helps to go one level further avoiding a Nash equilibrium.

I made almost a full BTC by buying some NMC yesterday and holding through the night.

Anyone here believes in NMC?

Can anyone point me to the last transaction fee discussion.

I think we really need those fees to go down so people can start using mBTC a lot more.

GUYS something really really BIG is about to happen...

BTC is stalling while lots and lots of money and hashing power gets pumped into alts.

Several alts are getting hard-forked ATM.

Big crypto players setting positions.... something's cooking..

What's so funny ?

I think they are buying alts before BTC jumps to 5k and the alts subsequently follow...

In case you haven't found out, QRK, TAG and IFC just got hard-forked, all at the same time. Right now.

Three alts that got pumped >300% in the last 2 days, and just got forked at the same time.

What you say is all true, but you're forgetting a factor.

If you have a huge mining pool (or anything really), BTC is not the most profitable coin to mine at every single moment.

In the last two days BTC grew no more than 20%, while some alts grew 500%. Of course they will not outgrow BTC in the long. It's just a couple days of opportunity until price somewhat catches up.

What is it that you guys don't understand?

It may be accidental (due to much sudden hashing power on alts) or intentional (to cause price crashes). Who knows..??

Well those LTC you don't give a fuck about gave me +20% btc in the last couple hours alone.

Thank you. No.

LTC is just another way to make more BTC. You're just too stupid to see.

I agree 100%.

Get in. Get out. Profit.

Or at least that's the plan.

Yup, pretty ironic. Crypto-coin haters in the mother of all cryptos forum.

I have exactly 0% of my savings in LTC. Not pumping anything.

You're confusing me telling you about a real opportunity to enlarge your total BTC stash, that's been going on for the last two days (which incidentally, does affect BTC); with bragging.

You might consider changing the perspective from which you see things.

Every single person on this forums is here to learn (albeit driven by different ulterior idealistic or materialistic motives).

Closing in on the good old gold..

Impressive. Bitcoin is now pegged to the fate of the chinese.

Do you know when exactly China surpassed the US ?

Vote up:

11Gb of blockchain    or    1 ounce of metal 

 

It's 0.2% fees, not 2%.

Firstly, I do not trade that much. That said, I like to trade there because everything happens 5 or 10 seconds after it happens on Gox. If there is no big movement on Gox (or the current leading exchange), the guys and bots at btc-e are just happy trailing and alt-trading.

Another thing I am starting to like more and more is the fact that in Gox you're trying to predict whales. That's very hard and almost always sudden. It seems to me like trying to predict bot behaviour (positions are more clearly seen on the charts) in a trailing exchange is a LOT easier. But idk, that just might be how my mind works.

What I do now for sure, is that I've been far more successful trading at Btc-e than at Gox.

EDIT: forgot to say, bots in btc-e force constant minor movements, which don't really happen at stagnation in other exchanges. Most of my positions are played that way, get in and out quickly.

As soon as Gox starts big movement, things change in Btc-e: alts are dropped and BTC gets more liquid.

Are SEPA withdrawals working on Gox??

Is anyone doing them regularly?

Goat what's your your price target for LTC at New Year's ?

Is there anyone here who's been able to withdraw through SEPA from Gox? If so, how long did it take?

Yup, this last week had insane pumping.

HypeCoin. Let's just call it HYPE.

Insane. So let me get this straight..

During this crazy alt pumping month, you had shitload of LTC, PPC, some NMC annnd XPM??

What % did your BTC stash grew after it all settled?

Do they need a scape-goat?

So we've been above 1k for a week (with a couple flash-crashes but still)...

What's your take guys? Where are we headed?

Didn't realize they changed it, thanks !

What ??

I think you're off by an order of magnitude or a couple glasses of wine.

It's actually < 0,5% of the total BTC.

Not a whopping 4,5% but still.. it's half the winklevii's stash right?

Do you guys really think Putin would allow the Feds to come in and close BTC-e?

I am, yeah.

The Russian take pride in those kinds of things. They will never allow a full US operation and shakedown in their turf.

If it were to happen (through cooperation), the Russians themselves would be doing all the arresting and sequestering. But meh.. who knows..  BTC-e might be helping them right now with some occasional laundering..

I don't see it happening. At least not until another big big round of alt pumping & dumping.  

So what

They work with russian banks, russian payment systems and russian credit card processors.

You think anyone really cares where the company is founded?

Where's the money is what matters.

Are you guys seeing this?

https://blockchain.info/address/1CbR8da9YPZqXJJKm9ze1GYf67eKAUfXwP

Aftermath of the scam: people sending him more BTC.

Quite funny.

You're chasing the rabbit. It's the same story:

OKPay is another Russian company registered  abroad (British Virgin Islands) for fiscal purposes.

They operate through a network of banks in Cyprus, Czech Republic and Russia, so that should tell you something...

CoinDesk may have gotten the pretty side of the story. Russia and Cyprus sound a lot worse than just saying you operate in Czech Rep.

His current problem right now is he cannot mix the 96k because he needs another such big chunk of BTC (not his) in circulation in the mixer. Otherwise he mixes to himself.

Thus, he could sacrifice half his stash, and do something like..

1. Scammer talks to mixer owner. Gets a little code going.
2. Scammer offers a public sell-off at 50%: every coin sent to the mixer gets mixed and doubled up in the process, up until 48k are spent.

The doubling of coins assures there will be takers.
The takers assure his coins get mixed.

Would you trust the scammer a 2nd time?

That's a bit harsh.

I just wish he would've stayed in character.

Jaroslaw was the perma-bear, and Walsoraj was supposed to be his perma-bull nemesis.

Whatever happened to the other account? Did you lose it?

Idk, the more I think of it, the more ways I find to launder it. And even so, he could and probably will opt not to do it now and just take little more handle-able chunks for the rest of his lifetime.

His real problem imho are the drug and mob lords probably chasing him for the rest of his life as well. I'm just guessing but there's probably some cartel money in there..

EDIT: btw 4k are already missing and shitload of LTC and NMC got bought today, prolly just a coincidence though  .

BTC-e of course.

I switched to BitcoinWisdom a couple months back. Last week I was requesting this same thing, and the owner over there simply said:

"The unit has to be the same as in the exchange" (paraphrasing, can't find the actual post)

It struck me then, he is 100% right. Having BTC at one place and mBTC at others is kind of (super) messy, and prone to provoke mistakes.

We need the exchanges to adopt this change, or we need a Bitcoinity and everyone else to have just a little bit more patience, won't be long now.

I agree 100% though, this is uber bull for marketing and spreading Bitcoin, we need it ASAP.

I just wished the community could pull it off in a more coordinated consensual fashion.

We really need that ASAP. Any ETA on this?

The Chinese Gov "said however that ordinary individuals were free to use bitcoin, so long as they took on the risk themselves."

I guess that's not that grimm after all.

I think the catch is that China will now become even more of a USD black hole.

People with big positions in China are probably on "RECALCULATING..." mode.

The last candle on China has the biggest volume of them all and keeps growing.

Idk if this is over yet.

Right now, I wish I was a Chinese with lots of money on BTCChina.

Yup, it's super laggy on every chart.

They must be having an accidental DoS due to excessive traffic on BTCChina's chart.

Even charts for BTC-e are lagging and I have my trading engine open with 0 lag; so it's pretty much BitcoinWisdom having the problem.

China holding but no bounce yet....... suspense

It's not over yet it seems... China going further down.

They would yeah, but the Gov doesn't want more money leaking the country.

China bouncing back..

Look how the exchanges have evened out.

mtgox        32.120%   48333.910   0.954 USD
btce           31.400%   47253.930   0.907 USD
bitstamp   30.670%   46164.860   0.927 USD

Stop insisting on Gox. It doesn't work during crashes and you can't withdraw fiat.

Current price is not bad at all for a 5% rake (as rpietila would say).

Btw, did you mean you sold 1k BTC or you sold at 1k usd/btc ??

I just woke up. Is Gox on the loop thing again?

LocalBitcoins is having problems with BTC deposits.

Be careful if you wanna panic sell over there today.

My thoughts exactly.

/Unfazed by this drop.

Link?

Gox leaking market share every day. The last days of an era.

bitstamp     31.010%   45152.250   0.850 USD
mtgox*   30.000%   43688.600   0.871 USD
btce           29.750%   43320.360   0.880 USD

Old news, but thanks anyway.

Here's the original report from BoA themselves in case you're interested:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentcloud.org/documents/885843/banks-research-report-on-bitcoin.pdf

Don't be too hard on him, he said he was all fiat. That might explain his mood.

Are you serious?

Please think through before doing an incorrect correction.

"All volume data" is singular.

If he'd said:

"All volume data sets", now that would be plural and warrant your correction.

But it was not the case. Please educate yourself before being a pompous prick.

Hahaha, do you really think "multi billionaires" buy in Gox just like regular folks ??

BTC-e now the most expensive exchange..

I'm guessing they were all entangled in alts and couldn't sell in time.

Guys, I just came back from the first day of the Latin America BitConf, here in Buenos Aires !

Roger Ver, Erik Vorhees, Jeff Garzik, Tony Gallippi, Andreas Antonopoulos and several others are all here..

Let me tell you, it was amazing !

The place was crowded (~750 people attended) and we had some very very nice talks. I was especially amazed by Andres Antonopoulos, whom tbh was one of the few I didn't know beforehand.

(low point was Josh's talk "The future of mining" which consisted mainly of slides about the basics of Bitcoin......)

Never mind this crash, THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT !!

Did you  just execute the timeless "sell low" in the dip??

Shame on you !

Well, if the manipulator really is the Exchange Stabilization Fund as stan suggests, that will never happen.

"As of October 2009, the fund held assets worth $105 billion, including $58.1 billion in special drawing rights (SDR) from the International Monetary Fund.[1]"

Bitcoin's 10 billion market cap has no way of "burning" a 105 billion fund.

They might lose a few dollars.. but meh..  who cares? they print them...

I was bored....



EDIT: and apparently too drunk to make stupid graphs:

1.5 M Users = 0.5 % US Pop !!

It does generate a certain warmth inside, doesn't it?


Yes, you're right.

I'm not even from the US. But it is just where most data is available from. Couldn't find good world data in the 10 minutes or so I spent doing it 

IT IS OVER GUYS, the Bitcoin Cat is out of the bag !

The last days of 2013 will forever be the last days of cheap coins.

All TA shows down down down, but we ain't moving. All exchanges on new acc backlogs...

We may yet visit the 600 range once more in the coming week(s), but that's about it. Once we bounce back say good bye to sub 2k coins forever.

Lol. Not even close. Nope.

Just telling it how it is.

We should have gone a lot lower after that double top at 1242. There just too much people & institutional money waiting to get in.

Most of you here are probably on a similar boat:

I've been talking preaching about BTC to everyone I know for the past year and half. People used to roll eyes and run away.

Things have changed a lot.

I haven't done it yet, but I know I could go to any town plaza or square in the world right now, start shouting Bitcoin, and I will have a crowd in 15 minutes.

We're in the doorway to mass mania phase.

Countdown is in weeks, not months.

 

So.. is anyone tracking those big coins moving?

A confirmation they've gone into an exchange would really be something...............

Can you not see the simplest of answers ?

If I'm moving 20k coins to an exchnage.....it's because I want to move the market !!

Occam's razor.

Not really. It's only stupid if there is no plan, meaning an impulse sell (which obviously wouldn't be the case).

Unless you have 50 mill sitting in your wallet or bank account, you can not pretend to know how the mind of such a whale works, and even less what their plan is.

If what you said were true, we would never have big market moves shaking the exchanges and guess what? We do have 'em. Lots of them.

Same here.

I wouldn't close an eye if I were full fiat.

Done !

It shall henceforth be known as the "Radio guy scam".

Update the encyclopedias !

https://blockchain.info/address/1EyFahSTKaZ5MJFaXhZjFwvZVfZPbSnBNv

Looks like he already tripled his money !!

Smart guy. Scamming the social engineering way. He earned it.

Btw adam, blockchain forensics are leaping forward in huge steps. Yesterday Goat disclosed his lambo buy and now you disclose this tx. They can get to both of your stashes now. I'd be ever more cautious heading forward. One tx connecting a person and wallet is all they need.

Just one of many coming out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365540.0

"They" would be future bad guys.

It's getting pretty easy for these forensic tools to group up and identify stashes (groups of addresses connected through heuristics and others techniques).

They can't however, know who they belong to. For that they need a TX that connects an identity with one of the stashes. Once you have that, connect the identity with a real person and you get a pretty solid target for a crime.

Russia is very very different from Syria.

You're talking about a country that has made gays illegal and sent greenpeace hippies to a prison in Siberia. They just don't give a shit, and have been ruling with an iron hand for as long as memory serves. Also, if you take a look at the Ukraine videos, you'll see the level of violence is way above that of other protests around the world.

EDIT: also the only country where in the event of hostage situations, the norm is for all involved to end up dead.

Obviously true, point is that Russia raises the bar by a lot. I was right in the middle of the Argentine protests during the 2001 mess and bank runs. I've followed closely the protests in Egypt and middle east. After seeing the videos from Ukraine, all of that feels like child's play. I do recommend watching them.


A lot worse. Syria's gov had no power. Russia gov has all the power you can ask for.


Stan's ultimately right, this is off-topic. Enough about Russia.

Seriously now: Why are you asking for "certainty percentages" ??

There is no such thing. Every person has his own view, theory and understanding of the market and the trends guiding it. They are at best, guesstimates, or if you feel offended, estimates based on past performance, pattern recognition and future projections.

No one has any percentage whatsoever of certainty.

That's what I like to call the Newtonian TA.

Well, yes that would be a more correct term to describe what we're all about here. But yeah, you just answered yourself.

Risk assessment is all about studying the probabilities of different outcomes. No certainties there either.

This is what Risto actually talks about. His skill to ultimately asses and assign a value to the different probabilities. In that sense, yes, people can get very very very good at it. Certainties? No.

I heard today Casascius has the Fincen breathing down on him??

Can anyone confirm?

Well fuck. That's retarded.

He is merely providing the digital > physical interface.

What if he sold the coins with no BTC in them?

Don't do it guys.

It's ostentatious a la WallStreet. I can live off of 1 BTC for two or three months down here in Argentina.

Don't throw 50 away ! It makes me cringe..

I don't know man... it sure reminds me of the phone talks of Enron's traders (someone posted the documentary here yesterday, thanks btw!).

I'm pretty sure that's not the path our new BTC rich should take.

Lol. They were doing a lot more than cooking the books. I guess you did not watch that documentary.

Their traders were gambling on every possible thing you can imagine. They went as far as making the weather a tradeable commodity, can you even believe that??

Native.

You will live as a king here.

We have the luxury of european cities, and the finest women & wine in the world.

Insecurity and financial mayhem are certainties though. Being in BTC you're hedged of at least one of those.

EDIT: And the MEAT. Best meat in the world.

Only if we buy a Lambo and we then cruise around town throwing Casascius coins out the windows 

But seriously, of course !

Do visit, you'll love it.

Ask any the big btc names, they were all here last week on the first South American conference (full packed place btw).

Sure thing ! I'm going out now but def hit me with a PM if you wanna know more !

I'm in the center of Buenos Aires, our capital.

Indeed, this whole discussion and peer bullying is stupid. Enough with the Rpietila bashing.

Let the guy speak his mind, the same as we all do. I know lots of people don't like the way he expresses himself or agree with his analysis, but be honest now..

I'd much rather read any of rpietila's post (I always find them interesting and thought-provoking, even when I disagree with what he's saying or how) than most of the sub-par content I'm used to finding both here and  in other places like Reddit.

Let's bask in how different we all are and how rich that makes us. No need to alienate people, specially active people who contribute original content on a regular basis.

Yes, I get what you're saying, but still, I prefer such a character than a one-opinion monochromatic forum.

Bitcoin was created and pushed from ground zero by contrarians and eccentric minds. When we lose that, we become just like the systems before us.

This one in particular is from the game Skyrim, if I am not mistaken.

Nice, thanks a lot for that. I gotta say, it actually got me kind of scared. There were just too many moments where I could completely relate to the BTC world and also lots of specific frases which I read here often such as: "it will weed out weak hands".

Mass delusion is a pretty dangerous thing. We gotta be careful over here.

sigh.. I can't handle sideways...

I'm starting to feel uneasy.

Something's cooking up.

To those of you thinking we're gonna have 3-6 months of sideways like after April.... YOU GUYS ARE CRAZY.

Time's running up. As I said the other day, the Bitcoin cat is out of the bag !

Waiting (in April): "hmm big crash, what will happen to Bitcoin... let's wait and see..."

Waiting (now): "hmm is that it? I'll wait till it goes just a little bit lower so I can buy a shitload of coins"

China cheapest exchange ATM.

Should I sell my BTC-e coins?

You guys heard the news?

Nakowa lost 2300 BTC today.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1suwzo/bitcoin_casino_justdice_highroller_nakowa_loses/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Nah.. gambling is one of the most pervasive addictions in the world. Gamblers will gamble.

Don't forget those 2300 BTC are part of another 11000 BTC he had won previously.

Easy comes, easy goes.

Breaking completely (un)related news :

Chinese lunar probe lands on moon
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/14/us-china-moon-idUSBRE9BD06T20131214?feedType=RSS&feedName=scienceNews

China and Moon in one piece?? CMON this has to be a carefully orchestrated Chinese masterplan for space and financial milky way domination  

Why are you assuming it's him? Did I miss something?

What list? You give out signals?

What new line? I don't see it.. 

Screenshot?

Oh wow. I hadn't noticed it.

So.. umm.. what is it?? Some kind of bid/ask avg ?

You out?

Against all odds, 800 keeps holding.. for how long?

Yes. I'm thinking this means the drop from 1240 was premature. Most people not ready to sell and thinking we were going higher.

Only some sold and now lots caught in between, just waiting..

ChartBuddy has become sentient !!

Time to bail ship guys.. machines are rising...

Don't sell though 'cause they probably end up using BTC anyway  

When I write a million lines of code I make sure to not put a single line of comment.

// Just kidding

Exactly. It's the other way around.

Events affect price instantaneously. TA comes after.

By visualizing all those events in previous price fluctuations, we are able to identify them/their effect in the form of patterns.

When recognizing a triangle or cup and handle or whatever, we are simply acknowledging a common behavior pattern and using it's past performance in combination with the current market sentiment to extrapolate into the future.

Indeed. People keep forgetting we're now working with a lot more exchanges, and how much the volumes have changed:

btcchina       64392.620
mtgox           14323.340
bitstamp        11403.840
btce             11393.550

check out these other two chinese ones which are seldom mentioned:

okcoin          42990.150
fxbtc            21509.410

Now that's worth a whole new thread.

But I will simply say no. You're thinking in human terms. I might argue an all-knowing god would not be subjected to the Time dimension.

Furthermore, if the string theory "confirmation" that propped up last week turns out to be valid, we could eventually in a very remote and distant future all be looking into a single-dimensional universe for our TA (where strings are vibrating and things are actually happening and then being "echoed" in a holographic manner to our 10-dimensional universe, which would be just a projection of said one-dimensional universe).

But yeah, best leave it there......

So... no StringCoin ?

1) I'm interested.

2) Maybe Project Development or Marketplace/Services

It is true, but to be fair, he also constantly deletes off-topic random stuff and pointess discussions; he likes to keeps his threads clean.

EDIT: I'm not justifying it as form of censorship though...

It all really depends on the frame of reference.

Bare with me for one second:

So far, the most unique thing we know in the universe is Intelligent Life. So far, there's only us (though highly unlikely).

BUT while we have not found another Intelligent race, we have founds lots of other planets capable of supporting such life or even us.

Therefore, Intelligent life is scarcer than the resources that fuel us (Earth).

Now this becomes an economic problem, scarcity makes Intelligent life more valuable.

If you were given this simple choice:

Save the humans or save the earth ??

The logical route is of course to save the most scarce. Humans can go on without the Earth, and even expand to hundreds of Earth-like planets, which we have already mapped.

But losing Intelligent life.... that would be a real blow not easily fixed.

Ecologists will want to murder me for my conclusion:

In this frame of thought, Humans have the moral obligation to use all possible resources in order to secure the continuation of Intelligent life.

Give me your bitcoins and go live with the monkeys then !

EDIT: unfortunately and for lack of a better example, we are what passes as Intelligent Life, which is not the same as saying we conduct ourselves in a smart way....

Cryptsy is imploding.

I've taken my coins out and would suggest the same to anyone.

I don't know man... maybe 6 months ago.

3k coins makes you a multi-millionaire right now. I'd say that is already a pretty heavy fish.

China dropped below 5k !

Action time !

4818

Call your bottoms !

Are you positive??

I'm not sure but I thought I saw it get pulled back on BitcoinWisdom..

Can someone confirm?

I was about to say this was a point for the bears, with how 5k CNY support was broken marking a lower low on the last mini trend....

But Loaded's here... so umm... let's wait and see right ?

6:50 AM here in Argentina.

What crowd am I hanging with right now? US or EU?

Where are you guys? What time is it?

BitPay has that system for internal use. They pull all bids & ask from all exchanges and always buy low, sell high. Supposedly when you use their service you are reaping the benefits of that.

I'm not really sure it will be much of a big deal except for this initial scare and sentiment.

If true, it probably means no more institutional investors from within China. But meh.. big institutions do work with foreign banks. They can find a way if they want.

And the same goes for regular people. There is a black market for USD. There will be a black market for BTC.

So.. basically.. just sentiment. Those who wanna get BTC will find ways.

Selling is not a problem either. Big guys sell in foreign markets. For small guys, there will be local demand (in LocalBitcoin style).

This is basically how Argentina works.

Are you gay or something?

You mention rpietila every two posts.

GUYS forget India.

Quote me on this one. You heard it here first.

The next big emerging market is Brazil.

We're not ready for India. Transaction fees are worth about a day's work there lol...

EDIT: (obvious exaggeration)

Oh wow.

Another retard with ad hominem argumentation.

Yes, I probably traveled more than you ever will.

I'm adding you to Ignore. Don't even bother answering.

Same here, but trolls will troll.

You just have to Ignore rude people.

I think we may all end up visiting Risto's promised land at 500...

Just woke up...

Today, I really need it to go down 

Indeed... I just need to touch 650 though... I think all I need is a little patience.

Exactly. Well said.

Hmmm... so how's it looking guys??

Where are we headed? Will I get my 650 again?

Yeah but you can also hit an exact price target. He said 500 so it hasn't happened yet, but he's probably buying along the way.

Just got back...

OK SO..what? the whole China news thing was completely fake and we just lost 10-15% on nothing??

This is wrong on so many levels I won't even comment.

Sure. Kid yourself.

Miners are NOT always profitable. There is no "always profitable" investment; none, zip, zero, nada.