Is there any news.  Seems to be alot of volume for some reason.

I have 628 drawn in for a week now as a kinda crucial pivot to hold.  Obviously I hope we hold and form a floor from it

^^ Thats not a statement on btc or gold, its a comment on dollars.  You could put a picture of anything in there, custard slices 2016 $1,000!!!!!!
Just had the highest rise in core inflation for 3 years..


Iam amazed he was using cpu mining and doge is really high difficulty for an alt coin.   Sounds like an incredible waste of energy and those poor lagged users betrayed by another useless IT dept fobbing them off with all sorts of crap no doubt.   Eventually users start quitting or not renewing their contracts, hence the months long time to discover and/or do any investigative action

LTC is being affected by asic so maybe parallels to btc as of last year this time?  I seem to remember the price was pretty depressed over the summer and gave no reflection of future moves

I do think its about people moving money, as that need to increases and across borders especially then btc utility rises, in turn so then does value
Depends how its measured, a bear market call is issued when a 20% drop from peak is achieved and we had that.  However this is not stock but currency.
Overall we are higher then a year ago and so I still rate that as high, just going sideways would be nice as it can lead to rises later

Yes, the main thing to look at is how widely used is BTC.   If people starting to use btc increases, there is less currency between those people.  Supply and demand, we can expect higher.  Its hard to judge but more people is an optimistic sign

I follow a few mainstream traders, just noticed this comment on BTC recent move.  I dont think he is bearish going forward exactly but as a trader he is forced to secure profits.  My own view is 400 is a general border BTC has to reestablish shorter term but also shows over the last year is fairly significant.   Since dollar itself is not a fixed value it might just be psychological point but there it is, we'll see how it goes



http://stocktwits.com/message/27743352

I guess BTC trade would be more expensive but I can say a normal cost for a short of that kind of short would be well under 5% more like 2 at most to open and close and that would be in the spread.   Your cost is over 9% ?  I guess its possible for a cutting edge deal but doesnt seem very competitive to me either

THe same argument is used when talking about gold and actually I think its correct.     People will point out gold sitting in a bank vault does nothing and serves no purpose however it is utilised by the bank issuing paper against its asset worth.  
Most obviously would be Fort Knox and dollar notes, though there is no fixed relationship the gold is effectively circulated within that system.

So just literally holding bitcoin and doing zero with it in any way is not productive or likely to produce value as the dollar system has managed or any bank with assets but also balance sheet liabilities.    Bitcoin is not worthless and does enable trade however I do think it relies on its usage to create value, so most often casino bets use bitcoin as a cheap way to pay out to their customers worldwide who are then obligied to carry out any translation personally into their local currency.   An efficent system is in play there that encourages business, so value is added.

Im not sure plain btc in a wallet is doing something useful exactly.  In a wallet as I travel overseas and its secure in allowing me to sell my house belongings in one country and then buy goods elsewhere and not risk the worth in the journey.  That example would be useful but most journeys dont take years.  

tl:dr  BTC velocity is high, other assets are likely better long term storage

Bitcoin is dominated by speculators and not underlined by enough genuine commerce could be one criticism.  Is that trend increasing or declining would be interesting to observe though, surely we have less speculators post gox then prior

10 mill views on this thread is kinda impressive 

Organic growth would not fall so quick, a forest does not rise and fell in one day or even a week even if forced.   Thats the problem that bitcoin is new and mostly a velocity driven economy so maybe it is all dump and pump in majority

My rough take on the poll question is that there is a range from 220 to 290 in recent history at least with 278 being a previous sharp low.  (previous lows tend to mark future highs if breached)  Its more normal to stay within a range till volume or some element of demand forces a new paradigm

The coin is useful to some people, I used to wonder the same thing about bitcoin.  Why bother as we have normal currency which is sent digitally anyway but I was wrong and it was of greater use then I imagined.   all they have to do is provide utility which many people especially globally distributed then use, value is added and price is justified to some extent.   volatility and speculation are normal as well.  
Maybe you are correct but the better view might be innocent till found guilty, no point presuming the worst without something solid to suggest its any worse then current cryptocurrency though of course the entire deal can still be doubted
Its upto the market to sort competitive advantages between products, sources of success are often baffling to those in a market who see it as unnecessary in its existence.  If right the price will correct I guess

Ideally posting on this thread for the buy then the sell might be then worth noting after, otherwise its all done retrospect.    I get your point about weakness after the doji but the time frame is arbitrary, how did it look on 4h
Bullish price in looks, where is collated volume data though.  Price is maybe excessively buoyant to come back so quick each time but its a small market used globally. A reset is a good thing to mix it up, its retraced the price since year start and that helps to confirm price so seems more correct then if it never went down.

Why is Bitcoin unlimited a threat, its just competition and bitcoin has plenty of alternatives already in operation that would be happy to take over.  The threat would be from the number of miners who would switch and prefer to support that alternate system.   I guess that part is new as most coins start from nowhere.

Will we definitely end up with 2 tokens in equal amounts on 2 addresses, price wise that just seems to suggest the price halves and value overall is the same.   Some confusion as people switch or decide which coin to hold or use but not as bad as it might appear?

I would rather they make transactions compete in fees they pay for priority.   This will then give the smallest transactions business to alt coins where it probably belongs ?    The best solution is the most natural self adjusting.   Does my opinion mean I should sell BU if I get any?

Brexit anticipated weakness is already in the price for sterling, certainly cable I think has a fair chance to be neutral to positive this year.  Dollar has its own news and dynamics vs world trade, obviously brexit is stated a reference to the current changes passing in USA for its trade agreements.    
Overall the trend for sterling is negative for some years now, long before Brexit.  Fiscal and trade deficit but vs dollar it may stay quite level.

BTC in CNY I think has held a lower point and is not negative.  I think its showing neutral action and may hold till news effects it further.

Dollar strength has come off some as less rate rises are seen likely.  $1060 and above is more positive action if it can hold that but overall it looks less positive then the CNY charts I see.  It'd be good to see if Dollar index shows weakness does this help the price for bitcoin

I cant read the original but if this is correct, I dont think its an unreasonable point of view.   A business will protect its revenue, why would we ever believe otherwise.   If he thinks your fork will take away business and income then its not likely you will find support there.

Is bitcoin about capitalism, because thats how it works and maybe that is what determines the fork.   I may have read it wrong, Im still not clear how this will proceed really

Where does the force lie, that is the big question.   The silent majority is full of surprises

 



Seems a bit of direction trying to form here, downwards its attempting to break down some of the prices we built above as support during February's rise.

At the same time, alt coins are going upwards.  Is that normal behaviour in such cases of BTC negativity or that something special this time from the whole 'debate'

People said this ages ago when MtGox went down.  If only it was locked down and all regulated by government, wouldnt that be perfect then.   It would not then be bitcoin really.   The government has already gifted you a virtual digital token currency and its called dollars.     Enjoy that awesome system of exchange if you like overly powerful centralised regulation or in the case of China dictatorship and command economy communism.  

Let bitcoin be more about competitive capitalism which in my life time has not existed in any national currency I've held.   I want to see if this can be a productive enterprise or not, I dont wish for the day government shuts it all down.  I can already see the mess of lopsided politics influencing economies, it appears negative to me.  

Bitcoin needs to be above 900 to maintain the highs of January as a base for further rises.   This roughly matches a 61.8% retracement of year start high to low and could relate to longterm uptrend since summer 2015

Good rise from 900 but needs a higher low really to progress and confirm it wont just be resuming selling lower.
Found this site from a professional firm commentating on bitcoin, technical and discussion of the possible fork and so on

http://fxdailyreport.com/bitcoin-btcusd-price-technical-analysis-march-24-2017/

Of course forex is only traded week days but seems to be a useful regular source otherwise

Yes correct but it doesnt mean we are bullish or keep that 4 digit.   If it go up and hit that like we bumped our head and fall back down then its bearish and its only confirming itself as such.
But yea I think 1050 is a reasonable target now but I only think bitcoin is doing its usual thing of twisting and turning in an helix spiral pattern rather then anything linear and predictable.    900 is an echo of a longer term uptrend and its had a good reaction to that, we have see it develop in the next week really as its just a point on the weekend with forex not in play

More sideways is still my conviction and we'll see how it deals with each hurdle

I prefer this chart, more detail - http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=XAU&view=5Y

Going to be boring here, stop comparing bitcoin to dollar.   3 digit myth was always wrong because its established fact even government is happy to say each dollar declines in value every year so 3 digits was inevitable so long as the btc standard is being used.   Bitcoin is being used and we see 4 digits.   We arent holed below the water line like dollar has with its errant masters

What really would be decent, would be if bitcoin kept a level ratio with gold.   Thats a real sign of quality if all we do is stay level with one of the most globally acknowledged asset bases.   No government will say its money but for a hell of a long time its not lost anything so it pretty much serves that purpose.   Like bitcoin, gold is going to go up as dollar suffers from deficits.    If the only thing we do is stay level then Im happy, no need to be thinking of 3 4 or 5 digits even, doesnt matter only that we maintain a reliable exchange of value.

The whole ounce comparison is arbitrary anyhow.  track it in grams per btc I reckon.


Cant anyone fork any coin they like, its just the support that follows that fork that matters.   Seems BU doesnt have anything that viable?


Anyhow while we obsess on 4 digits or 3, I'd say 1050 is the level to watch for now.  That was my target and the trick is observing well how it reacts.  Finding 1050 as support in the next days would be great.   I will guess we are more sideways then up for now, mostly I hope we deal with weakness before moving on

Somehow I think people who dont speak english very well are being taken advantage of here, its hardly a positive for the industry overall.   The exchange should put up a warning to people and in a few different languages.   Thats the only way to explain it, a hundred or so clueless people thinking its a genuine 'new' alternative and buying some of the limited supply?

This isnt ancient history as the Chinese recently used copper as a proxy instead of yuan, mostly between construction firms it was considered superior due to its utility in the trade.   They were actually prevented from continuing by government

Good price action leading back to 1150.  If price can confirm late march highs as its lows in April thats a positive going forward, possibly 2017 can be positive overall rather just volatility up and back down again

The price right now is caught between 50% and 62% retracement of that high price to the low afterwards of 993.     Or if taking the eventual low of 2 weeks later of 890 that also fits price movements, the lows of the last week meet 62% return to the highs which is a price of about 1170.  Some people follow that as bands of strength to gauge progress.

1170 also matches the January high so it would appear fairly significant

Its natural for there to be a pattern to price movement like the tide leaves a print in the sand, its not always clearly the same but its not as simple up down on news either.   Especially as much news is anticipated, its arguable future growth in bitcoin is already in the price now.   When you examine a chart especially forex do its in 4hr bars and you will match the influence from each part of the world better.

Im not sure how bitcoin is not fungible, doesn't that just require each part is interchangeable.  Bitcoin is a liquid system, able to retain its value even.  Its purpose or abilities is not different from the beginning ?


Price has again regularly stepped higher.  1240 to 55 is more resistance.  The chinese chart looks more accurate I think in that its sideways and from this it does not appear to be bitcoin will rise especially now, the late march high seems a reasonable point for it to rest.    Chinese yuan has done better as of late, which helps keep a lid on currency flows to alternates such as bitcoin.  $1100 I think is reasonable place for price to reset to on any falter or if leveraged speculation reduces

The bitcoin price on OKcoin is sticking right to the previous price ranges with recovering 62% of previous high price as a top for now as 7370 CNY.   Falling back only some, its been well above 6900 this month which would be a marker for some weakness.

USD is more volatile, I feel the relationship from China to USA on bitcoin is unequal with greater effect on the dollar side seen.   Marking the range from ETF reject to the final low that followed March 25th matches many lows and highs such as the January high which recently also marked the low for 13th.   With little happening in China price range, the butterfly effect saw more dollar side worry.  Relatively both sides are quite bullish.
The high for the 12th was predictable and foreseen by a few no doubt, the reaction afterwards is more significant in measure of strength for bitcoin heading into the summer and future protocol news.

Bitcoins reduced block reward is an ongoing effect.  People imagined a light switch effect on the actual change over but its really taking time as the blocks of course are evenly spaced, a very large amount of bitcoin is traded and velocity is high.   That means any effect has a big buffer before it changes the landscape I think.

Gold staying at such a high price consistently is already a reflection of national currencies depreciation I think.    A price can be static and be called bullish because the time scale is consistently advancing, a decay on gold would be normal vs currency which actually pays a reasonable return on its holdings.    
Almost all western currencies are impaired by debt and rates below inflation


USD BTC price is approaching a previous monthly high with CNY more sedate but also reaching possible resistance with the highs for most of the last month.  The reaction here especially is a good gauge for market direction going forward

Bitfinex should be taken off bitcoinwisdom if its inaccurate because neither of the other exchanges are challenging resistance but bitfinex is waltzing through the previous high like its just another minor step.
As far as a reset to 1050 see how it reacts to 1200 first, that seems more likely and matches the China price movement

Is that new I thought blockchain was already being tested for a while in finance.  I heard they wanted to have listed securities traded on a blockchain even.   I did not think Ripple was decentralised like bitcoin but this answer for differences to BTC makes it sound like Ripple is amazing.  Either way progress is good, so long as its not lobsided and well tested also
https://www.quora.com/How-is-Ripple-different-from-bitcoin

Huobi price chart, I think support at 7000 and resistance 7500 to beat.  March declining trend beaten, if we fail support meeting that old trend at 6600 would be a short term target to stabilise/observe price reaction

The price is past a March downtrend and some resistance in China which is more important. Previous peak would be a nice point for it to reach if then falling as it puts the bulls to bed and can make for a bigger fall. Surge past resistance is normal movement though and its done that so far

A fallback to 7500 CNY support to first confirm the move before continuing is more stable
Flip a coin, life is random 
 

I believe this current formation is a flag, a bullish sign of a possible further break upwards.  The flag is formed after consolidation post a rise through resistance.     I'm not that familiar with flag action but I just hear it mentioned alot in stock markets as they are at highs.  
Bitcoin bears a parallel generally in that they both benefit from the zero interest rate policy for dollars.   Though FED has raised rates again recently, it moves in very small amounts and lags the inflation rate which is higher then base rates.   We have at present negative rates when accounting for losses to inflation, this benefits market speculators with far lower costs to borrow any other time in history almost.

Not sure November is significant except historically I remember that time as peak.    Fed policy development vs expectation is more of schedule for speculation in bitcoin I reckon

Not especially, its not predictor of a move till it completes so I'm told.  The middle dip is far too harsh and strong a recovery to be looking for weakness, a failed move to the downside is bullish.   Thats how I'm looking at it.

Looking at Huobi I think its a good measure for bullish action if CNY can pass and confirm above 8849.   Looks to be a good band of resistance for this month and 50% of the peak to low

Depth of the cup to the handle breakout point is the then estimated move after it rises post formation.  So 300 to 1100 roughly is +800 from that point which is what we've seen almost.

I'd rather it moved move gradually upwards, this slippage is nice for some but any strong price needs testing along the way.   I see alt coins selling off some as people join the rally I suppose, they may regain some as it steadies out

Chart looks bullish again to me.   Nice to see pullbacks and recovery,  I'm not certain however just my initial impression over the last 24 hours.   I drew a rough uptrend line for CNY to pass or keep as a ceiling on yesterdays declining price action and its already confirming above that.  At least short term it looks positive.

I do imagine people are making a fuss about the $2,000 mark.  Of course it means zero as bitcoin is global not one currency and no value is fixed in any case.   If the cause of this pullback is nonsense basically then it should match the uptrend resuming as I see it.   As always just my rough take

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timothylee/2013/04/11/an-illustrated-history-of-bitcoin-crashes/#792e4bab4039

Ripple I read in a mainstream article described as superior to all other standards as it can encompass them all, so would outlast all of crypto.   Ive no idea if thats correct, I had thought it was centralised and so more vulnerable to corruption.

This morning based on last night I changed my view on bitcoin from bullish short term trend to challenged and its been back and forth today.   Staying within declining highs but also above 1670 in dollars for now, not sure if CNY is more significant but $ is easier to relate to for me.  Its currently reacting to those lows.   No idea of the real motivation, news or momentum to it

Stock market cap refers to free float not worth to buy that company so far as I know.
No I expected it to come back but its always the case of how long.    The amplitude to the waves or something and its not a month apparently but less then a week to recover which I think shows the pullback is apprehension of $2,000.   Round figure avoidance is human nonsense and it fits the shallow and short withdrawal especially when bitcoin is independent, dont buy it at all if you think its only a satellite of dollar.

That sharp spike.   Thats the break of a downtrend, the boat already left.     Actually I have here as another point of indecision because its previous price for declining ceiling, see may 14th prices roughly and my uptrend on Huobi has not been regained so we decide or negotiate climbing back on that ladder.  Thats at least a day, prime time for China to digest and concur 


Actually for a good rise longer term we want this questioning and building along the way, it makes the action more certain and likely to last to higher prices.   Just sharp spikes that do not pullback some, reconfirm and come back is less strength, less involvement with fewer buyers.  Always we want time for participants not just speculators, thats if you want much higher price

Its not that anyone cares that much directly (most are concerned about themselves lets be honest) especially traders outside the USA.  However the dollar is a reserve currency used as a proxy for global commerce.   If the figure head to a system that has 20 trillion of debt and commands many important trade routes is faltering it matters, it even matters to us in bitcoin.    Bitcoin does bare a relation to dollar and China buying bitcoin also relates to their desire to buy dollars, partly as a proxy via bitcoin.

Obviously there any many different factors and nothing is absolute but typically the market flicks from bullish uptrends to negative sentiment and withdrawal of liquidity from various markets.   Hot money often moves fast on news not just actual changes but the perception of a possible event occurring.   Trump is not going anywhere I think but still we have risen a great deal since he was elected and its not entirely coincidental that this is true of stocks and bitcoin and many things

we have the meme technology  

Is Brazil currency especially weak recently, not sure why'd it move that much otherwise.
Thats a major chunk of business that must go elsewhere then, it would be good if bitcoin had a fixed relation to whichever standard its ceding control of 'cent' type traffic.  Otherwise seems slightly chaotic a transition and apparently unintentional and uncontrolled.


Break of that very recent downtrend and confirmation above 1780.  So long as it keeps that gain it can get over the imaginary wall of 2000.  Indicator and volume looks fine I guess.  I did have a chart for CNY trend on Huboi prices for wisdom but its been delisted from that site, not sure why.
[I found a link via google, I'll check back later - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny   - oh dam actually the price flat so forget that :O]

Is it actually better or just similar enough to experience the tide upwards and play leapfrog some


I think I have bitcoin as target achieved as its surpassed 2,000 and a kind of relief rally from all those who doubted it was going to surmount such a grand barrier as a round number in dollars.   Of course this was always silly and weak resistance at best and so now I cant believe such a rally is good for more then 10% as such and 2,200 is target achieved.

If the world follows my reasoning then we consolidate gains and or see profit taking and see where chart action gives us for new support and resistance.  Because we are in unchartered waters Im not expecting many to know exactly or to have as much confidence.     We have to figure out or track where momentum can be gauged from to be more certain then just guessing.   

I would say the greatest clue in general is not bitcoin but its reflection which is Dollar Index, all FIAT based strength.   Entirely separate chart, I should check on but as long as Dollar grows weaker I see no great reason to doubt bitcoin just because of a high number.   On the other side protocol changes or possibilities are probably more relevant then the chart itself, alt coins might be the more active crypto chart then bitcoin itself who knows

I thought segwit was already pretty much scheduled in but Im basically clueless about where the balance lies on the sea saw between parties wanting different things.  Hopefully they can agree, isnt it possible to just test what is best but everything mentioned sounds like they are casting solid iron not making code which can be adapted.

Looking at the chart seems to show a triangle in play of short term downtrend meeting a bit longer uptrend, seems quite balanced between the two.  If Im right any significant break from this range should confirm a lead to further movement in that direction.   In brief I would guess still upwards currently but a good break and confirm above the previous declining highs would be best for higher progress.  Thats CNY

The uptrend on bitstamp I drew has not especially held, so a bearish view.  If it can confirm 2281 as a top and then declines that could lead to significant price movement

This is what Ive observed a few times but its arguable to what extent selling needs to occur to establish a price securely and allow further price appreciation in a sensible way.   I saw this in Feburary and kept hold on the guess it was a reasonably established price base, not that we ever know how demand can change but it was reasonable.

In a much smaller way the price has just sold off some, a mere $130 fall which is little now.   The bottom pricing marks in line clearly with a previous uptrend on the medium term.    Decent action possibly, its recovered 50% of that fall very quickly but if it can keep confirming to a small extent with trends I'm not especially wary despite the heady pace here.   So long as it keeps displaying some apprehension by markets.

 Longer term I'm told it must consolidate but its really hard to call that because of how bitcoin is so volatile, its not clear.  I think fundamentals might determine price ultimately.   Also watch FIAT, the FED and Dollar Index, we all live in the same world over reliant on one currency.

This sentiment marked the end of a bear market, all factors must be placed correctly in the jigsaw for a full picture.  Its a mistake small traders often make I think, tunnel vision is bad, lack of experience etc.

The wall of worry they call this, its counter intuitively a bullish sign of a free market and possible appreciation.  Apparent doubt with underlying positives, such as the halving last year which was very fair to say was going to be delayed in its true effects.   Way too many threads at the time called the time of the block reward alteration as pivotal when its actually a gradual vice tightening type effect really.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wallofworry.asp

Anytime I see bitcoin charts and dynamics resembling wider markets I feel a bit more comfortable though its a bumpy ride

Actually Ibian's view is not rare, look at the population growth for major western countries.   Then maybe also the demographics within any population growth, sometimes its only the immigrants who marry and have children which leads to society tension possible.

Japan is dying off, China has a falling working population.   These factors do not underpin growth, eventually GDP will suffer even though its based on many factors developing not just available working population.     The view that people are the cause of problems, cost more then they are worth.  This is not a rare view,  Ibian is not the anti christ I can confirm, he is a normal person with a normal view and its an incorrect view imo.
   People represent growth, relevant to bitcoin we need people to use this crypto standard or it will not grow properly and the price is overblown.   A major market trader I follow called negative on bitcoin recently based off this, he does not like the failure to mainstream the crypto interest and as an indicator expects a reversion to mean ie. lower pricing eventually

This is a more significant break of trend for the second half of this month, the aggressive rise.   50% retracement is about the price here at 2380 and also that matches some highs and lows.  Its hard to judge whether it will pass that or use it as a base because we have come so far so fast.   I think mark 2470 as a ceiling now for a measure of strength, if we can climb past that and confirm I think its arrested the downside otherwise keep looking for more confirmation which will take some time.   
I have a slower uptrend line drawn there from previous observations and retaining that level is still especially bullish price action.  I agree with previous comments, some selling is needed to be really confident of the rises overall, its healthy

Meuh6879 with the super simple but fair trend call there.   Hope you are right as that'd be pretty bullish action.   I'm a little confused now so will just judge based on my previous observations over the last fortnight.  The sell off is from an uptrend we broke, it was very aggressive and so this is normal correction

Thanks, nice to be appreciated  I will look again later when we are a bit calmer hopefully.   Dont decide too much before China concurs imo

Was that a recent loss, because that casino just did very well

I drew in a symmetrical triangle where price seemed to be bouncing off positive and negative points in a decreasing range.   Doesnt have to mean anything but its broken out and is going upwards, the guide I read for such triangles says continuation of the previous trend.  Short term that was down on the previous trend and obviously in medium term we've been going up so yea Im confused on that one   I'll stick with 2470 as a marker to progress, see how well it does battle with this area to judge strength

Not 12h bars but if I go by 30m bars since this sell off then I see an ascending triangle with 2470 as the resistance.  It fitting price action quite well thats no surprise its significant.   However Im less certain of the ascending line I drew with only 3 points, so we'll have to see on that one.   Of course patterns can fail but its allegedly a bullish formation



If I use 12h bar I just see the possibility for an intact uptrend and really thats very positive if we can continue from that still.   I drew that ages ago but still seems reasonable not wishful thinking etc, I always imagine China and 'overnight' action must play a big part and could be of a different mind

Thats a great chart, I never look at price in Euros but Im wrong on that as its possibly the most tradable Fiat currency in the world.   I think to take any positive view first look at it to get above 2044 Euro as thats only a first rung of 23.6% retrace of the fall.  If it can stay above that I'll trust it a bit better.  
Explain what the green patch relates to, an indicator ?  OBV for what its worth shows BTC bullish, likely to rise.   I may be reading it wrong of course, but thats my guess and experience but I never look at any indicators alone.  I happen to find OBV more simple to observe then most indicators

Looking at that EURO chart, its similar to the others in that it appears to keep a slower uptrend for this month and this reset is really only a smaller section of prices most recently put on the chart.   I think its positive for us to go back and check prices like this, if we can continue to progress with the overall uptrend everyone should be happy to see this kind of doubt expressed in markets occasionally really


Negative dude times crypto into wider markets - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8Ny4P3jQqs

2800 would appear to be the same problem as when we spun around a few times at 1800 and it became obvious it was going to exceed 2000 because round numbers are silly superstition.    If it rebuilds price here and buyers keep being apparent as they are now then we can start to see similar for 3000, it will be exceeded.

I think the driving force for bitcoin appreciation is new wealth not old and people wanting not to use their national currency but be a greater part of the global economy, lucky for us bitcoin helps their money travel well.  i.e. I dont think it matters if you find it expensive, maybe 'its not for you' to hold and do nothing with it  if it has a baseline of demand to be used ,that'll produce higher prices.
   I'm looking at Huobi, every time theres a spike down that quickly retracts upwards, leaving a pin candle thats an uptrend line for me.   We broke the first leading to a fall, the 2nd tier uptrend we saw lead to rises about 12 hours ago and there is a further uptrend still in play

Thats why it goes down, all the just in case sellers have to clear out their shelves.    When you hear alot of I sold too early, thats probably when it rises and people dont even want it to ?     [Also these areas of I want to get back on the train is likely where it finds its feet?]

I see it losing that weaker uptrend just now and so a blip down as we fall off the ledge.   However its possible to draw in a channel for this downtrend since the ATH and we are at channel bottom, not bullish exactly but its possible we rise within the downtrend.  Whether we challenge and break the downtrend for a proper rise remains to be seen.   15360 CNY would be target for channel top, just a short term target

Also I like to see patterns aligning is switching to EURO and kraken, we have a good uptrend over weeks we are about to come into contact with.  Nothing is ever certain, but its a good place to see reactions

1929 crash followed establishment and actions of the FED.   We dont have that kind of loose standard, we have the secondary effects of dollar inflation maybe but thats just 1 currency.  I hope we rise above being tied to one fate


Again does USA determine everything, volume could be lower over a holiday like the xmas trading effect in stocks.  Inversely that can become bullish, I did think that also but Im not sure bitcoin is in the main tied to business hours in that way, not for 1 country.  Holidays are an influence and bitcoin I hope is a mixing point of alot more global influences, some trade demand would be good of course.  Its irritating that isnt made a priority as we move away from block reward its part of whats required, always appeared that way afaik


Anyhow I see trends still showing positive till a downtrend can prove itself.  A good battle between the two is a good thing hopefully for distribution if nothing else.
Targets to beat, 2470 of course 2358 and 2225.  1940 below would relate to a slower uptrend more true of April then May and also very roughly a support line

Healthy correction ?        Current action has it basing off support and a possible uptrend and now it meets the downtrend of the fall, at least in dollars.  On huobi in CNY it looks a bit better rising outside a downward channel and with more even volume between the fall and rise now that looks ok.  The dollar exchanges have more work and volume probably required for a recovery, 2140 to beat but the main thing is to establish volume above 2000 I think

I expect slower progress if it is going up it has to deal with all the fences left closed by previous action.   When we rose first time at this price it was free and clear and nobody was sure, now it has many signs left up.   We climb over each trend we previously broke but it doesnt sound like we should 'explode'.  Its going to be a hike :p     monday because the idea is leverage is behind the rally momentum ?

So far all I see is we may be pulling out of a downtrend, so its got to get off the ground first and steady itself.  Slow and steady as she goes
Going on CNY as thats in the fore now, current price is the marker for previous spikes down.  So possibly a ceiling of sorts, but a target of about 16,000 would be good to see.  Not just to reach it but trade with as a floor, that'd be progression otherwise possibly we repeat even while not in a downtrend its not yet positive ?

lol, pay your bills sure.  Holding real money is not an easy prospect when its part of government debt.   If you meant gold in a similar proportion to pre nixon levels then fair enough but modern paper is very compromised and based on no value but the force of taxes.


Medium Trend for bitcoin is in play for supply vs demand after post ATH pullback.  I see CNY price going sideways while now out of a downtrend its not especially certain for direction.   Kraken chart I see as below an uptrend but mostly sideways in a similar way

My quick take on price action was it appears bullish and it has in fact now gone past a line of resistance for the last days and appears to ready to confirm higher price before challenging 2470 again.    I hear talk of CNY strengthening in line with an economy pulling back but thats not apparent in their price especially, its usually more sedate but has also risen.  Yesterdays low price was a rejection of lower pricing and time to buy for the cany apparently.  Kraken also looks good to challenge a previous uptrend.  Overall past 50% retracement of the ATH to sub 2000 move.   Give it a best target of 2222 EURO before it should again be resting before any further push ?

Ripple sounds interesting but its another topic not this one.   I have heard its a descriptor for other blockchains, that'd make more sense.  Unless it helps bitcoin its not relevant to price tracking of bitcoin afaik


We will not visit 3000 without alot of work and resistance over come first.    Its a fair theory that our rapid ascent after 2000 was partly because it was untracked and unknown space, also leading to a quick sell off in a similar way.   Now we do have previous price history at this level and each part must meet old holders who now wish to sell and are apprehensive of higher prices due to its previous quick fall.

That kind of memory to the market means we should progress more slowly but I think so long as we do continue to negotiate prices its overall a positive and bitcoin is still maintaining a slower rate of uptrend.

Ive drawn in resistance 17155 CNY.  Its a good point of reference I think as it was the highest price falling the initial fall, a first price check for a bounce back by the fastest speculators.  Now some days later (much time in crypto :p) its a resting point and ceiling for the moment to consider.   2169 is 50% of the initial fall in EUROS showing as the high now with lows right now meeting previous days highs (higher highs), I think resolving above 2113 would be medium term a small positive to rest at.
Also drew a rough channel with 2000 being a channel bottom (higher lows) in sentiment

It should not run without halt as it must cross previous uptrends we failed first time round and which led to the sell off.    Depends on the volume of buyers at this price previously, some will be selling into the rise and of course 3000 itself is going to cause a sell by its own for some people just like 2000 was where people wanted to take profits.   Even if its not smart to sell round numbers, its what people do in conjunction more then any other number, that creates a speed bump to any rise.   That known area of resistance brings in speculators who exist on the negative side as well those who speculate on rises, so we have yet to iron out the exaggerated effect of a simple round number.  It'll be a month at least I think, excluding any actual news effects.

Constantly reconfirming the price at these prices is overall a positive and helps us medium term, nobody should be really negative especially at this moment.  Bitcoin has been doing good work this whole year, I would like to understand more about why that momentum exists (obviously halving is there but also more I think) but a negative mindset to these graphs seems way off.

Hasnt it slipped past 2470 a little too easily, I dont know.   Chinese chart looks good I was going to say, confirming multiple times previous resistance before more in this slight rise.    2900 is a previous uptrend line, obviously that was an aggressive line.
EUR 2300 Now 78% retrace for Kraken Euro pullback move and 2400 is top of uptrend channel and the flipside to the negative sentiment during the selloff I guess.  Climbing like the rungs of a ladder, quite neat really

Old trend discussed may 20th fitting in, call it a base line for now :

Just comments here makes me think its over done.   People worrying like its something and all it is yet again we reach a round number.   We get enough consensus from that round figure to have another round of selling.   It went up pretty fast imo and retracking and confirming that rise is really good for the price action overall.  

Looking at the chart I just see a break of trend and the length of this trend goes back to May 30th.   Just a rough guess, this significance is not high.  That uptrend formed from the previous downtrend failing, sideways a couple days, confirmed that bottom then rose.   All just normal action seems like.

The UK election is nothing, the overall situation with Sterling is continued weakness whoever wins.   Medium term it might rise or regain its losses at least but only relative to dollar not actual value.   Government continues in deficit and rates lower then inflation, poor currency just like dollar is depreciating in similar ways, Euro ditto.  Japanese Yen you know thats a mess, no reason for any great rise vs bitcoin.  If FIAT is weak, bitcoin is more then likely a good prospect to continue its favour with speculators.   Chinese currency I dont know but its still pegged to dollar I guess.

CNY 18195 is 50% of trough to peak, I think we remain bullish medium term if we keep 17653 CNY seems a fair game pullback.   Target to beat (and confirm above)- 19000CNY

Thats a hell of a brief V bottom to this pullback.   Somebody was watching that level of support and just dropped a ton in there I guess, lots of buying pressure apparently.   Its exceeded 19000 and so past the downtrend I had drawn in, short term but this is very short term fast action.  I dont think this has yet confirmed itself above properly so really would prefer it does that in next 24hr.
19400 roughly is a level to beat but just confirming prices anywhere here would be good overall.    Bitstamp has a W bottom which I think its bullish, of course only a short term pattern but then its moving that fast.
Kraken is near a channel top or evident positive sentiment.  ECB speaks later but I agree with this guy tbh:

I love the steam engine, very neat but looks so small to provide torque.  Lathe to carve wood ?


The price is going sideways, looks positive.   Kraken met the top of the channel, found a ceiling with lows matching 2500 or so its almost too positive it seems.  I drew the channel very broadly compared to present range and its only seen the bottom end of May, I guess it wont repeat till pushed.  A good target to scare but remain bullish would be 2300, if it blipped to that and back up I'd aim to be confident.   Bitstamp following an uptrend for the last month and Huobi is sideways tackling June prices at this level but only after it had confirmed the previous pullback downtrend line which is very neat

Kraken swings to the bottom of the channel.   I'd like this regular channel to hold just so I have an easy way to know when to gauge the price advancing, usually its not that simple.    But for the moment we hold this line roughly, 2406 is a previous peak and so its magnetised.   In this market of people guessing, these significant numbers are just ones they remember or yet again we see 3,000 in bright lights like its very important.

Of course we sell off because 3000 is so important and its a good figure to put into your orders, stop sell, limit sell whatever logic you want.   A consensus forms and we get sell pressure which leads into more apprehension and we must reset some again.
However I'm looking at the cause of the 'avalanche' and its a round number, just a ghost more then actual real pressure or an event.    I'm not prone to be bearish with just that especially.   Could be now is a time to accumulate and we'll go sideways but further evidence and price confirmation would be good.

Huobi shows a trend break of less then seven days.   I think I said previously 19400 for a good area to mark strength, look for that again maybe.

$2794, $2834 are fib levels to retrace and roughly its the current range post pullback

Is Bitstamp referring to lightning network transactions.

I was going to say Huobi looked quite stable going sideways.   However Kraken lost its channel, the recent recovery then at top marked the underside of that trend finding it as a ceiling.  We then went sideways and now down.  
The low being seen now is prices that match end of May, with a trend drawn then as a ceiling (before started a 2nd leg down).   So its reasonable previous price action in effect.

It looks quite 'droopy' overall, however Im seeing previous trends that bears will need to climb over to continue down.    I'll say negative short term till we challenge 2700, which is not soon is my guess.   I'm looking support, confirmation around 2275 if the 2414 may end ceiling marker doesnt hold the rough trend in play from April is far more substantial.   Basically looking at retrace of the last recovery and market requires more confirmation to continue any uptrend.

Not really because ETH has its own issues and the real driver for crypto growth is the global population not this goldfish bowl, utility provided to ordinary people enabling growth that might not otherwise occur would be good also.   All that would underpin the valuations if correct.

If ETH can only describe 30 transactions maybe 15 a second then we have problem serving wider interests until significant changes are made.   I have most faith in those coins with people dedicated to  work motivated in a genuine desire to provide integrity (otherwise lacking in many countries, the world even) and utility.

BTC is driven by a dwindling miner network, its become top heavy and ego driven.  If its chained to the price and its own moneyflow instead of global interests and if not competitive in some way that allows innovation to be the determiner of success then its possibly negative in its expansion because of that.   I do not think it'll be displaced that easily, it seems the biggest threat is not other crypto but its own unguided powers

I dont think they won unaided, capitalism requires participation by the widest population possible imo not a top down system, FIAT already has that bias.   China has an advantage in government subsidy, while BTC is opposed in theory its also supported by some of the largest hydro power projects in the world creating hot spots of cheap power (ditto Solar afaik).   Also they have the access to create the cheapest ASIC cirucits most easily.     The correct path for BTC would have been towards energy efficiency which would help keep fees low and so on, its the wider benefit given that is when you really know a product will never stop

I dont think its beyond imagination that the slimmer we got on numbers of miners and determiners for bitcoin overall that we entered into dangerous waters.     Not the details of how but the fact that a few people will fall over in their thinking and end up making bad choices, that almost seems inevitable.  
  The mistake is really that bitcoin allows the concentration of power not the story I picked up a few years ago which is decentralisation.  People making mistakes whatever their motivation is perfectly normal, happens all the time but the problem is where those who make mistakes are not left behind but are the captain of the ship and everyone goes down with that rigid thinking that can never be changed.    That is not new technology really, its going to be disappointing to be labelled in that way

All I expect to survive is genuine innovation, if it has to picked out of the wreckage that is unfortunate.  I'd hope we can go around a mistake in some way, save time and money and I mean collectively as a new movement not that loss can be eliminated but it should be recognisable and avoidable surely.


Kraken shows itself as past the downtrend of the last 42 hours.   As always I'm more confident when a previous trend is confirmed, usually that means down and recovery from there as an echo so sideways maybe around 2050 from here is positive.
Overhead looking at a reaction to $2600 and 18195 CNY for direction.
With this recent retraction upwards, on a daily candle thats holding the trend since April which is bullish longer term

Reading the ETH dev's AMA he relates to his own coins split and says any solution at all would be a positive after.   Obviously the correct fork being able to then carry on, seems fair logic I guess but disruptive


Kraken didnt confirm the push past downtrend before rising.  Only short term line but worth noting.    On bitstamp I drew in downtrend since ATH June 12th and we now match the lower highers since then also 2470 I think is a good line of previous low and highs or a possible ceiling.
   So I'll switch to say negative short term while we work out prices in this area, sideways can be positive relatively and that might be how it plays out.    If it just carries on without hesitation here I guess I was wrong but often the charts for btc match previous prices quite neatly

Seems like a reasonable retrace of the fall.  Its beaten the downtrend which was a ceiling for some hours yesterday evening.   Seems to have then reasonably confirmed those prices as a low and is now near $2700 again.   I think it'll probably rest in this area and anywhere above 2470 is bullish action.  Short, medium and longterm bullish cant be complained about and if 7 day candle is red I dont count that especially except as consolidation.  

Kraken is no long following its initial positive trend from the bottom, a looser slower trend might be there.  2300 as a ceiling, fib line seems evident

Becoin you made me think I had a bug on my screen congrats :p

Flo has a total market cap of 14 million.  BTC trades every day 1.4 billion, so how is it having that effect.

My thought on litecoin rising was its benefitted as the general idea of segwit is in the news as valid proposal for bitcoin.   It kinda lends authority to litecoin that its already got it working and litecoin is even cited in the reasoning of some pools for proceeding with the larger market.
I see the volume traded for Litecoin in value exceeds bitcoin, at least today

Dont fight the trend, why so serious.   Advice Im given is you dont presume down when overall the trend has been upwards and that is true of bitcoin.  So Im not looking for a reset.

On kraken we have slipped out of its positive trend that was formed after the bigger pullback.  I wasnt sure that was going to matter but its eventually turned over like we see now.
however we measure in equal proportions and that simple trend was 31 hours old on break, its not a big deal now that it did not hold.  In fact we went upwards at a slower pace anyway, now we come back to a rough 2169-2225 area which is just a circle more then any loss.   See how this area reacts for a check on if we negative etc.  My take is neutral on that

I drew $2488 as a resistance line. 2350 possible old positive trend.  Do we wait till those two cross, end June I would guess we are not that well balanced and calm.  Huobi doesnt have trend short term but its also sideways

All I hear about the blockchain in mainstream business is well apart from any coin standard.  They are interested in the technology but not the current 'wild' uses by players such as ourselves, they dont want to buy into bitcoin and rely on some unknown entities for control of that.   
Their view of blockstream is internal use or possible between fixed known parts of their company or industry.   So none of it would resemble the currency kind of element we have, power would be controlled by legal means.  Settlement probably would be FIAT so I dont see any of what they do relates to BTC as a price discussion exactly.  I guess it adds some legitmacy, are these people customers for ASIC?  probably not

Yea Im not sure about that.  Sure positive and its come past resistance but its still got business to sort out.   Its bit messy to do this but a rough downtrend still can be drawn forming lower highs.  The surge upto 3000 is not included in that but thats kinda a thing that we see magnet effect in attraction and repelling from a point like 3000 and otherwise we have a negative trend to navigate.    Could be Im wrong just guessing but as it goes back to June start in this fast market its best to watch
So right this second its drifting past 2,600 as if nothing and that'd see the back of that negative trend idea.   2500 is rough resistance and now support so there is two points to gauge strength

Tonight Huobi looks most positive

Bitcoin dont care about the pleb coins not even the top ones ?

Huobi is tusselling with uptrend, I kinda didnt expect it to last but its sort of been in play for a month so its continuing.    Bitstamp I think is the most neat currently, its resting on the previous downtrend for June.   So not a strong line, the longer lines are of course up not down but we beat this one and have come back done to confirm or lose it here I guess.    I presume between those two we stay positive, we got a hammer or pin candle whatever as we ping upwards so its looking that way initially.

Is all the action here about discovering buyers before beating 3,000.  We did that with 2000, just repeating or maybe more meaning with the discussion on protocol is how we are guided

Huobi lost a positive trend over the last couple days, I drew this in very loosely.  If I could draw in some lines in faint pencil this would be one.   Bitfinex seems to be meeting an old downtrend at 2500 and also this is previously a support line.  This would be a decent line in the sand to tell the tide I think.  I think it 2470 area that was being mentioned alot so its a fair area in a battle for direction to be found.
18737 CNY is somewhere we should be holding overnight for a relatively strong price and 19407 CNY I would rate as very positive.

Overall market pulls back but I rate it positive and just normal selling, confirmation of prices.   Its not good to rise without shaking out weak hands first

Peg it to gold, how will you commonly state value.   I agree, I hope we dont define the world by FIAT of just one country and a country which doesnt balance its trade or its national budget is probably not a stable gauge no matter how meetings are held in that hope.

I mean we could have a bi metallic standard in crypto.  Bitcoin and a minor coin its stated relative to, must be some way to find a ratio that reflects the market?

Price has not so far held the 2500 area especially.  To break support just like resistance is best done when confirmed and its in the process of trying to do that now.  Give it a few hours to decide, weekend effect maybe I dont know.

Huobi looks more positive and not only held support but advanced back above a ceiling

If I look at Kraken, similar decline but in perspective to previous downtrend its looking better for confirming that line as a bottom.   Appears more optimistic and maybe 2225 to confirm that positivity is enough to regain support and build further.   2169 to hold would match recovery after mid june pullback

Has Bitfinex got past that loss?

Some continued weakness I think, below $2500 I think shows lost momentum upwards.  Kraken has regained some of its trend, but only beating a previous downtrend line in its reversal.   Huobi looks like its forming some path down for now at least to a lower level of support.  Putting in a lower higher is more bearish looking but thats not yet completed just looks to be doing that.

I drew in a regular channel down for bitstamp, if it breaks out Im more positive then

Gaming circuits would be like using a fork to drink your soup with right now.     I would rather they kept the calculation so complex it always needed a computer but thats not how it went,

Some miners have access to free electricity i think, they wont turn off immediately.  The setup is the main cost for many I think, overheads like alot of business done.  Means you operate a loss sometimes and carry on.

I said I'd be more positive if we broke a negative channel which is what it did though I wasnt watching.   It could be still viewed as negative some at $2,500
Maybe look at stronger dollar and that idea when considering direction, as is relevant to many prices.   However I believe dollar is generally weaker, Fed rate remains below inflation.
Kraken regained above a previous negative trend

That is a sovereign citizen type action which is impossible but apparently a 'thing'    I have heard of people wanting to declare an entire state free, I dont see it happening though buts its more feasible.   Puerto Rico just had a vote in favour of becoming a state I think, people still ignoring USA debts and dollar is strong relatively till that breaks.   A much weaker dollar would be extremely bullish for bitcoin price, not yet apparent

Anyway the price for bitcoin is neutral I think, above 2500 as support but below a positive trend that might have price resume upwards medium term.

On Kraken I think its in a triangle kind of reducing range which we then expect to breakout.   It has higher lows but is also a pattern of lower highs

Uncertainty is not something people buy.   People are brave when its a 'sure thing' which leads the market to flip to wild extremes.
A reset to 2000 or so very roughly is still bullish action from my perspective of a few years as weak hands and leverage pulls back.   Some sell some buy, overall its still healthy to shake up any presumptions because there is no sure thing.  Growth has to be genuine and if bitcoin manages to pull that off and overcome this latest speed bump of protocol change to uncap growth, it'll get five figures most likely

The hero we need.

No need for theory on what happens when a country takes on too much debt to service its trade requirements, its happened and is happening now in various countries.  The thing different now with Dollar would be that its the reserve currency and so a break down there has an influence in many countries.  This is why other countries are also building up debt, Yen and Japan is most interesting right now with likely all value in FIAT going to be wiped out.  
They have allowed bitcoin as an alternative there.  I hope its of some use to the population in avoiding failure not that we should celebrate any volatility in bitcoin, because it has real consequences for some in various countries with this unstable modern paper standard.

The short story is the weakest link will be the first to break.  I dont see people who are in productive industry as that weakness.  So if paper money is the failure or government debts too great, this is the part of society that should be wiped out first.   Otherwise we are talking about force and oppression

Dollar index value has generally been weaker for this year despite Federal reserve raising rates.  The real threat would be if they reversed QE or if government closed the deficit but until then I see open inflation and dollar weakness.

For most of today Bitcoin has been finding support after meeting a negative trend we beat at start of this month.  Also in this general area a line of support could be drawn.  If both are negated, the price might match a proper negative sentiment but I dont see that now

31st might be good timing so just luck of the draw, sometimes tied hands is more fortunate then trying to judge situations like this
Yea thats what I figured.  If you want to judge an open market then just imagine what is the most simple action to perform or most straight forward course.   That is to just sell up especially price looks negative and it becomes self fulfilling.   People dont resist these moves, it might be smart to buy into a selling atmosphere but its a small minority who react in that way and it requires a long term view, short term its all red.   The crowd are by definition more lemming like just moving as a mass.
Still got lots of people who dont have a proper account besides various sites they utilise, be that betting or buying or whatever.   BTC is there for using, ideally thats how I view the price background just people incidentally supporting price by holding btc overnight.  Put enough apprehension out there and people will just retract altogether not stop their game and do something boring like organise it into a wallet for some theoretical issue to resolve.   Of course theres lots of full users, but I think many in a BTC holding now are not enthusiasts just users who looking for ease of use not complication, uncertainty, bickering, politics etc.   Obviously dollar is the first source for such things and most convenient.

Looking for an especially negative target, more of a ledge on a cliff. 1600 on kraken is an old loose trend that can come into play.   The decline was slower in previous sells if we confirm below $2100 on a daily candle say

This current price is the old May high point before we pulled back and confirmed lower prices.    To be here now in some uncertainty of changes to BTC seems quite surprising to me and possibly a show of strength.

I would place an upside target of 3137 which is an old trend and 2333 for downside trend with 2490 kind of half way support in there also.   A touch of either trend would be on the oppisite to its previous nature, so down would still be above the negative declining trend (previous monthly highs) and that limit above is still the underside of our previous uptrend support going back to April  (monthly lows).
   So BTC is kind of contained within a range but both trends are expanding so I think the price still has to reform a new pattern post BIP91 for the market mood.   Nothing is regular or schedule at present, natural kind of wait and see in effect but its surprisingly positive imo

Theres always proof of stake where wallet use is encouraged and rewarded.   In FIAT or the general population, its well known that at best most peoples wealth equates to zero so it kind of rings true that even in crypto for a large majority if they arent actively using or trading the coin in some way they dont view any worth in something as placid as storing it in a plain wallet.
 The Cash chain is illiquid and Iam amazed to hear it actually deliberately changes difficulty slower, is it just a troll coin made in protest or will they update the protocol regularly with improvements now they have their own kingdom to rule over.
   I mean doge coin is a bit of a troll and thats still going so I guess it'll be around, the most damaging thing is they use a similar name which confuses and deters new users I think.   I know copyright is not a thing here but protect your brand is a basic kind of backbone to marketing, like the intel campaign with its emphasis on that chip you cant see being so important.

Theres a never ending supply going back to 3rd January 2009 so yea it figures.  

Just owning silver doesnt affect banking.  Using it as money might divert trade from dollar and cause some alarm.  In China they actually had a 'problem' with copper where it was banned from being used as proxy currency by construction companies.    It was becoming monetised for a while as China tracks in line with dollar they share similar weakness relative to any real costs hence the appeal of real currency or asset value.
Amazing as nobody now thinks of copper like that but its feasible especially if electric cars are to be a rising trend but in any case the population growth of developing countries creates a long term demand for copper infrastructure and also silver to some extent, its a far more practical metal then gold apparently


Bitcoin price is following an uptrend thats been in play going back to April.   The reason its quite sedate perhaps is because this trend is now a ceiling not support exactly.       We fell below and did not recover this trend back in middle of June.    Obviously its quite a strongly rising line hence our now ATH.    
Just staying here seems quite positive to me, forming some history.   A base camp for any further ascent seems prudent in any endeavour to scale great heights  


Thing is Buffet owns a food company and he has a free personal supply of Coke with a fridge in his office.      So he doesnt need to sell anything, productive assets are going yield way more then dollars now.   Problem is people take a short term view.

Is Segwit proceeding well, I as with many people only really hear the big news on this kind of protocol debate but obviously its important longer term.

Is 3600 a good price objective in line with Fibonacci pattern.      I'm not sure I would fix it so certianly as bitcoin is obviously used in not just dollars but somewhere in that area perhaps

Why did BCC rise back some on pretty strong volume.   Is that just random or for some reason relating to bitcoin at all.

I'm looking at the price action for August on Kraken and the whole of August we've been in a regular price channel.   Thats very strong action, dont even normally see this because bitcoin is so volatile its too loose to keep something regular normally attributed to maybe stocks in movement.  

I spotted a few people talking negatively, maybe surrounding the 4,000 line but its acting strong overall up until it breaks that channel.  Actually last day or so it was trying to break out upwards if anything

The whaletail porsche might be my favourite shape even without the spoiler.   Im not sure most people should buy the classic 911 if just driving normally on a road, a modern car with various devices to aid control is probably more sensible.    If you live out in the middle of nowhere and can experiment then it might be a dream of course, I'm not a fan of modern cars that wont stop going bing all the time.


The bitcoin price pulling back to 4333 looks reasonable as a previous kind of ceiling and now support.   Call it bullish again when rising above 4730 and just keep watching till then as market decides between the two.   The previous 3622 remains relevant of course but the bulls are no doubt not hoping it is on the menu

Not sure it has to be a purchase just a lack of sell.   Maybe a sell wall was withdrawn and it left an airpocket by which the market quickly rose on now light volume in that price range.   The most accurate guide to progress is previous price history I think.
RIght now I would guess positive action as we have drifted past a negative trend that was in place since the highs.  To some extent its confirmed above that trend but just going sideways here I think will end up being a positive

I will pencil in 3852 for a target or ceiling to gains and perhaps best to presume neutral until that point is beaten as its so close by.  3622 a rough kind of support

Im not sure any link to gold price matters exactly.  The market cap of gold is far greater, its just an arbitrary ounce comparison that has shown bitcoin has greater growth but thats as it should be.   Gold is not supposed to give any investment growth, its whole value system is based on no change in price over thousands of years.   The reason to buy gold is fear of extreme price changes which in a dollar system with this much debt is quite likely and even if not we'll see gold appear higher in price.   Its parallel to bitcoin in that both should have growth exceeding new units available where as dollar is held in reserve and is over produced relative to its trade growth.


The price of bitcoin I think is more positive now.   We are above the old trend line that could have been a cap to prices, that line is about 3900 so on the line but its respecting that and lower support must be taken as positive relatively.   Long term its best to have steady confirmation so it would be best to not rise from here too soon I guess.  Bitcoin does seem to have regular use and demand thanks to extreme FIAT moves in Japan or Venezuela, I presume it does have greater usage underway.
  Japan holds 1 trillion of US debt, the possibility for frightening acceleration is present every day I think, complacency is apparent which is probably a vital ingredient also.

Sounds correct, anyone with an old bitcoin address balance will have that coin and thats alot of unknown people outside China.  Hardly an ideal situation unless PBOC is embracing the free enterprise spirit of capitalism which despite appearances I dont think China really wants capitalism as that is all about free control of money by the people which gives them power outside of government.  Central banking is a communist construct from beginnings of CCCP is one article I read and really it does fit

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.   I dont have to believe in any conspiracy to derail bitcoin when the natural course is a great many upset and troubles along the way, doesnt mean it fails in some ways its better to be tested and to find the most capable path.   If a challenge doesnt come from within crypto I think we'll see great competition from ordinary FIAT but digital methods anyway.  I do wonder if a phone app will just take over or has already taken business Bitcoin should have captured.

 :'(CPI is a government statistic also.   The end figures only publish after approval and adjustment, they will not report the higher price of a car for example without first discounting the car as being superior to one ten years ago.    So say 25% higher price, they might reduce actual recorded inflation and say the car is 20% improved so inflation of price is 5%.  Fair or not this is not a plain number hence the steady line may be from this constant process of correction.

Dollar is rising today as earnings average rises at its fastest for some time

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedonic_regression

I agree on the mention of how this affects GDP outlook also, its really a big issue.   Eventually they do have to reset or default some of these liabilities that have built up, its that or we do have inflation of the monetary base that has exceeded growth.   The positive thing would be to trim government and admit some default, the negative scenario is they end up impairing positive real businesses.   The FED model is to only ever gradually release inflation, I think thats their plan.

Quick look at BTC has it following a trend line that is true for most of 2017.    Sometimes falling below, hitting support 4119 and back above so its like a tightrope more then a hard ceiling or support this trend for now anyway.  25759 CNY roughly equates as support.
Kraken Euro price fits within fib lines I think 3531 matching that last low and I would draw a short term trend from that low as well, so looking positive

Heres a graph as requested with OBV indicator.   4730 as a target overhead, fib line but more relevant nearterm are recent support and trend I think. 4551 is 76% retracement of the bigger fall recently on PBOC news

3813 Euro thats your line to cross, till then its just playing with your heart I think.   Resistance is attractive then repels like magnets it can do both unfortunately which is deceptive often, not that I know it'll hold the line just its not yet popcorn time lol

I remember those graphs, would have been more useful if it combined the volume from multiple exchanges just like its not all clear now in the various currencies.  Price looks to have reset fully within its higher range, look for 5600 area as possible resistance to any larger recovery.

33459 CNY or higher is a reasonable bullish hold overall

Its always more positive to confirm a price, volatility is also represented by a rise as well as a fall.   Especially if the rise is above the overall trend which is immediately true.

I was going to say a normal fib pullback would be more like it
Downside target 6407 very bullish ranging through 6101 to 5857 for a reasonable pullback just nearterm. 5687 is top of the longer term bullish channel for this year, similar to lows for last month

This is actually a lambo and practical and I suggest also using it to carry some gold bars not spending just for supercars.    Working assets is the best way to save, diversify to meet future costs hence why property used to be such a good idea.   Land and the skills to build a house or help build a house seems a good investment imo, never stay all in one thing outside of speculation

The irony when no more splits means people dont want to hold Bitcoin as much LOL      I not sure this qualifies as bearish yet, just a pullback which can be healthy within an uptrend.


I drew in a channel moving down, its a moderate pace.   We are near bottom of that channel, I'll wait to see how it reacts.   Below us is some fib support of 6523, initial upside target is 7300

First Ive heard of BCD and BTD    I have trouble keeping up   --- “Bitcoin Diamond is a fork of Bitcoin that occurs at the predetermined height of block 495866”, said an EVEY team member

So does BCH blockchain operation and miners have an association with Chinese red party or have I got the wrong end of the stick.   In China as I understand it, in every industry its quite common to have private companies which are more then closely matched to government but largely a part of it and continue with its blessing.  Is this also now to be part of crypto and BCH in particular?
I cant remember where I read that or mangled that idea, just wondering if its a given or a silly thing to mention even.
 It seems feasible to me, I believe China has operations with commodity companies like this and eventually intends to trade gold and many metals within China with ambition of trading the global price which is fairly lucrative.  China is already the largest producer and also consumer of gold in the world, declared and undeclared trade and possibly is this comparable to crypto.

The bitcoin network has too high a transaction fee for simple transfers, it will show iliquidity till resolved.   As normal bank accounts become easier the bitcoin became harder, its a problem which will be addressed soon or will cause a negative feedback scenario I presume.

The price has boundaries of $15,713 and $13,073 I think with direction and strength decided when passing those lines I think.   Not especially weak price action otherwise

I do think protocol development needs to keep moving to stay on top.   As soon as we just end up watching price and assuming this means success its a failure really.   Alot of the price is counting in future expectations of integrity, reliability and regular development in an actual economy.   If all the blockchain transactions are clogged up with speculators in majority and real business is impeded then its like a facade with a rotten frame behind, it will switch from one extreme to the other and that collapse will destroy confidence, etc   Horrible because it doesnt have to be that way, that appears to be the trajectory to me that hype kills the real economy that might otherwise develop, overheats, etc

If USA was capitalist like it was previously those banks would return their assets to bond holders and creditors like a normal bankruptcy system has operated for hundreds of years.    Not heard of the mainstream to label it as much but 2008 was a bell toll for the fall of capitalism, not because banks make mistakes and fail but because the law was changed to no longer respect capitalism.

Just like the law formerly outlawed the activies of the Federal reserve in order to avoid the devaluation of the dollar like they celebrating doing now.   No part of QE has been reversed, the only reasonable conclusion is the experiment was a failure just like its failed in Japan.  So not much surprise then, its not capitalism its politics doesnt really matter on the label beyond that.    Nobody is willing to dispute as they are all mostly funded by government, obviously education is paid off by Federal debt.

Anyone in crypto knows dollar doesnt work or the mistakes of bitcoin would matter more, I fear too many mistakes are forgiven because it works anyway just like people ignore dollar failure.    Dollar is bailed out continually on the backs of tax payers but crypto has to be far more careful or it'll destroy itself.   Every economy destroys itself is one fatalistic conclusion

$15,713 shows a candle low a few times, 261% of the November end sell off top.   BTC appears to be quite capable of further gains.   A proper sell off point and return to norm for the year would 11,441   always good to have a target downside to rebuy considering theres always some news

^^ That is gigantic news or at least Im pretty sure it is.   So many sites are not dealing with BTC directly but using the services of Bitpay to interface their site.    I'll definitely be reading up to check on that one but I presume they are partly motivated by the failure of Bitcoin with this backlog and I do consider it a kind of soft failure, for user experience its not acceptable.  Whoever thinks 20 dollar fees is ok is not right with the world.  Most arent cruising at that altitude, its a stall speed situation imho.

Dont regret selling BTC, I think the regret should be not transacting generally so anytime you sold something not exchanging it for BTC is a reasonable regret.  Ask for BTC and it would have helped counter the sales, theres not enough normal trade done in BTC plus and minus to your wallet would help stop it just being about speculation.  
I like the people on etsy who just craft their own things and have the option to allow for BTC, keep it a while and take any gains as a tip.     In previous years the incentive is also in the other direction, people dont take BTC when they could because what if it goes down.  

Of course this is all hard to say now when fees got stupid.   Even the very slowest possible amount to clear cost me about 5%, partly because my wallet is messy ?  I only used the wallet 2 or 3 times but thats a problem now, I cant keep a static address.


I recommended to buy MSFT after using windows 1.0

I actually hated windows, DOS was better imo but it was easier to use for people off the street and true enough they have developed it thanks to technology becoming more capable.   That itself says the story, its the potential which matter and the cycle of development.   BRK has never paid a dividend, it has the presumption to continually reinvest and actually Warren Buffet has the constant struggle by his own admission to 'get rid of the cash'.

We didnt buy Microsoft, I had very little money.  If I skipped the idea of using a computer and with extreme blind faith done nothing in life but put it all on MSFT then I guess maybe.   It was a 'new' company, they bought an airplane turbine maker.   Only recently with China etc and a rise in air travel has that done better.

Right now in crypto there is something new that we are missing that'll grow and be used.   This whole all or nothing bubble idea is incorrect, the technology will be used and is useful.  But one single ticker benefiting is unlikely.

Re: windows, crypto isnt easy enough to use and sure as hell does matter and will bring success to innovators in usability.

I will have to side with realRoach on this one.   There is no doubt alot of gold waiting in the ground, since we only mine the earths crust and there is giant amount of gold deeper.  However the point of that relationship would be that gold extraction generally goes in line with technological advancement, its not excessively inflationary as we recognise most FIAT currency has become.   That standard is corrupted by politics and is not a benefit, service or parallel of human economic advancement, the world will be improved when we do not hold one countrys paper as a world reserve asset.

Blockchains are a positive technology but its probably also a false dynamic to say they are more limited then precious metals or in some way more unique.    To be useful the protocol is going to have to be developed further, its not static.   Quite likely BTC will not be the only 'ticker' symbol traded, they'll be many with each their own properties.

I have read recently IOTA exceeds BTC in transaction volume, I believe its much unfinished though

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window

Good graph but also fees would rise in any case as they are a function of the price.    Perhaps another scale for ratio of fees to price has to be done to show that increasingly value of the mining network is falling.   Ultimately it becomes price gouging as the network is unable to cope with the transaction volume.  Its a failure in competition perhaps, every capitalist system relies on any business can enter that domain and introduce innovation and receive some part of the production revenue.

  This is why the consumer and ultimately society benefits from capitalism over other systems like socialism or fascism where profit is seen as a negative, why isnt BTC an open system any more.   I really preferred when GPU could mine, that was open ended but maybe Im just biased there :p

This is the kind of thinking I have to the Bitcoin economy, its not good despite the name - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback#Systemic_risk

The fees should be judged by revenue not the fee amount.    Or the ratio to price, inversely as fees rise as a higher percentage of costs this represents failure and an increasing risk of collapse.  I always want to see BTC spread in its market range and coverage by being so useful, this spike in fees stops it spreading to new markets by focusing purely on an elite in speculation.

  We already have extremely expensive vehicles to speculate in for the richest people in the world, its joined the ranks of the political elite who deal $100,000 bundles when I know many people wanted BTC to be about the efficiency and enablement in failed economies for the poorest people on earth.   Clearly $30 fees exclude those people who barely can afford a bank account

The first game I ever did on Bitcointalk forum was a bit like this and nobody realised the price in 2013 would rise as much.     Is this contest settled in a years time I guess, was there one from last year out of interest.   I cant believe anyone got it right, I never saw anyone say that ATH except Master Luc recently

I will predict 10th March 2018 if thats ok.    My reasoning being very roughly this was the stock market low in 2009 and believe it or not I did buy at that bottom, a little bit :p

Thanks for running that, is the objective prize for pure kudos basically.    Can i get a gold star :p for an earlier post I speculated 19984 was the top for 2017.  not that I know of course, nobody ever does just on balance of probability and following Fibonacci previous volume, etc and then the news event of Xmas and how that eye of the storm effect means lower interest for that fairly global event or at least for stocks it always has influence.

If stock type movements are again relatable for Jan start then its a kind of rollercoaster start I think, both up and down more sharp gradient possible before we find an eventual direction moving mid Jan to Feb and onto the rest of the year.  Hence my idea of March cycle for 24k though I dont have that number ringed especially.

People always compare BTC to gold when its nothing like the same asset class, I'd say its stocks more as again a stock is inverse to the depreciation of dollar and fear of interest rates, retraction in money supply etc.

Most people are lost on the workings of BTC and how to predict important factors like Fees.
I swear this user experience is so important to the ongoing viability for crypto overall, Im bullish on technology which enables the user not just theoretical achievements just being helpful and predictable is a massive bonus.   I agree with the recent posts by the ETH founder and others who state people have lost their way thinking of price, ironic thing to say on price thread but predicting price is looking at the more important factors  then speculators.  Im more bullish when people watch where they walk then staring at the sky

Problem is that guy is the majority of participants in Bitcoin now perhaps.   I can easily believe we have crossed that line where the new people outnumber any of the original mining generation who know Bitcoin wasnt always something you had to buy and websites are not how to hold BTC.

The product has to be user friendly or it wont succeed, something else will.   Especially if companies can just take the product and innovate and still retain the central benefits Bitcoin has.   Is anyone cheering for Ripple, Im not and I dont want that to be where any related mainstream use is most found.     I used to be in support speaking to Doctors, Lawyers and all sorts of clever people technical people highly trained in their fields but not able to sort tasks on a computer without error, its not viable to refuse this business.      Maybe they could and should sit down and study the details of what they are using but people dont do this, they just want it to work especially if its removed from what they are familiar with and crypto is new in alot of different ways.    I'm convinced this is a large part of any online successful product now

Sea of red, have you traded crypto before today.    This is a muddy puddle.   My overall take on Bitcoin at least is a bullish pattern with pullback to some support.   It can develop further negatively but thats not apparent yet.

15200 is a long term bullish trend line.   It was recently seen to be a rough ceiling at end of last week.    Maybe more important is 15,713 as a fib line.  This is the same price that marked support after the ATH 19k and pullback so marks strength now, in significant terms the next rung down would be 13,073.  The gaps are so large because the rate of change was so rapid, thats volatility its uneven seas but par for the course.

This is in itself a warning signal.   When numbers are large people panic but the percentage movements are not any more of a problem.     Also its not the market movement which is the basis of any disturbance its the transaction fees which are likely leading to unstable pricing as people are required to move 5 figure sums every time to keep % costs lower.

If they would just see sense and allow in every type, size and shape of participant into bitcoin trading and exchange then we'd have a calming influence.   This isnt idealism, this is a requirement for a functioning economy to continue.

Efficency always will lead to destruction in economy, it either benefits participants with lower costs or it rips chunks off until a greater more stable exchange can be found.   Im sure its been this way for hundreds of years, force or stranglehold by certain parts of the network cannot overcome market forces, we'll all lose out.


Right now the price is finding a ceiling similar to January start, its a fairly valid trend going to even spring last year.   Its wavering back and forth, not especially bearish but it does seem quite likely 13,073 would be required as a backstop at some point.   Its a large gap but so was the leg up, how it reacts in speed and volume is really more important, 15,500 and 15,713 continues to be the speedbumps overhead.

This is going to blow your mind but Exter was on the board of the Federal reserve .    Before the gold standard fell and the system fell into the dark side the ironic thing was that the Federal reserve underlined how solid value under pins more speculative ventures.

Not that there is anything wrong with risk, various debt, bonds and the whole spectrum of variable quality papers of value being exchanged.  The Exters triangle just outlines how the most stretched unclear values ultimately rely on far more boring things as gold.

Thats why its clear gold and bitcoin are not interchangable.  Bitcoin could be great, might keep on growing but its transactional not a fixed asset and clearly its value is highly changeable.    Its foolish to keep all value in 1 asset type, gold is inert and not massively useful but it does function as money for thousands of years now.   I dont disagree with silver or even copper and many other alternatives but they all tend to be more industrial which comes back to flucuation of supply and demand and variable value.   Gold on the other hand doesnt ever change and roughly is supplied in line with population growth, its far more steady in value then most.   Something like 1% is rational allocation, if people cant hold that much they are either not especially wealthy which is fine and normal even or they are not rational in risk avoidance.  Gambling is a common past time but not the good gamblers cash out profits at day end

For average person I say 1% because the correct time frame is ten years.   People are impatient and also unrealistic, people gamble their revenue not profits when they know they have a big tax bill coming and actually alot of the bank balance is not theres come bill paying time.

Its coming upto 10 years since we thought all this would be over and its not.   Gold hasnt been a bad place to store value over the last ten years but its not really blown up as expected either.    Its not that Im bearish on the idea but liquidity is a problem for most and so the idea of 30% is a problem, its gambling which is oppisite to holding gold as a hedge to stability.     It could force people to sell at the wrong price and thats why people think gold is outdated when its just very slow moving.

I did used to post on a forum with a silver bug, this was before it went to $50 and they were making reference to house pricing and how at the bottom you could exchange 1000 ounces for a family home.     Theres all sorts of ratios,  oil to gold, silver to gold, interest rates vs inflation and I think ratios probably says more then just one figure

The Dow in gold ounces is another one and today the Dow is 26000 and gold is not even 10% of that.    So the bottom pricing there if I remember right, the lowest bearish scenario is 1 gold ounce to buy the Dow.
People immediately say or think well thats dam stupid and impossible, fools gold.    Its likely to repeat and its happened in 'recent' history, I think 1980 we had this.

Big events Carter, fallout of Nixon, failure of the gold standard and a strange failing economy.  And also gov debt rates in the double figures, so blood on the streets scenario.   Now we're at the polar oppisite, I do agree it'll repeat.

The relevance to Bitcoin is to also consider it in ratios more I think, it increases accuracy and reigns in pointless hype.   The 2008 housing problem could have been seen more clearly earlier if comparing house price to rental price as a ratio to show value, not presuming asset appreciation but considering value.    Now for Bitcoin, I think value is Sat/byte in ratio to speed perhaps and then contrast it vs other crypto contenders and of course account for mass transactional volume.  Does Visa beat Bitcoin for cost, speed and volume, I do think these are the measures to watch for an influence to macro moves in price and market interest.

Its not really sideways so much as a wedge pattern which where we consolidate and will break out from.    Heres the chart from a trader I follow and his estimation:




Here is the chart to show long term how many ounces of gold to buy the DOW.   It does not of course include dividends given for ownership, but still its impressive how often gold proves a better idea then stocks to hold value

Do not take a Long term asset and switch it all into a short term asset thats completely unsecured and without any yield or personal utility.      Thats just the simple rule book for not ending up on the streets.  
Obviously big gambles can pay off but its also how to get very poor.    Applies to everyone, always keep something back and take profits after a gain because we all got to pay bills.   Money = security thats what its for ultimately and I say that as someone whose been very poor, you miss it most when you got none of it.  Life long lesson comes from growing up poor imo and some people are spoilt and dont learn and ironically are worse off for it.

If selling a house, 1% into gold makes some sense.   In Vietnam they literally buy houses with gold bars because their currency is like 1920's Germany and not suitable for any fixed price exchange.   Stay balanced and it'll make for alot more happy and stress free life, its how lottery winners become croppers I think.


The price yet again is retracing end of November sell off so mark it against that I think.  12,500 is a target for strength

Nice, seems a positive they would even appraise crypto coming from tradational finance.   That alone seems a pretty big thumbs up.   

They wouldnt label themselves scammers of course but the general population would also view BCC similar to crypto in general , its all a bit muddy in many peoples perceptions imo.  BTC has to distinguish itself over time some more.    There were weak hands in a market always and also more long term interests who genuinely want to see gains from utility and actual usage.   The market price is a mix of both and lately I think we've seen too many speculators and 'fast money' types who want to flip and move on.    

Every single market sees these people pass through, it is upto BTC or crypto in general to handle the negatives and gain anyway.   A flush out always occurs in market dynamics, its a hurdle we must pass


I plotted in a downtrend channel for the BTC.   We've had them before now, this is beginning ATH, but now 12,000 as a trend top.  13,000 is old up trend boundary and 10,000 as the rough channel bottom

So Cash is King as they say.  So you dont approve of Indias moves in 2017?  Even plain cash can be debased and obviously its happened with dollar.   With physical money involving gold silver copper there was still a problem with failure to maintain a standard measure.    So gold coins or whatever end up having to be a set dimension and a known weight so it can be measured and shown to be true value.    I dont think any system is fool proof or without costs to transact, maybe we need all of them competing fairly against each other for balance.

The common problem is a centralised authority that inevitably becomes corrupt and self biased, thats where the 1% was most likely derived from. Imbalance in itself is a feature of every economy, inefficiencies, failures and fraud even is normal bumps in the road      Only thing I see as positives is distribution and open competition, Bitcoin lacks proper competition somehow.   Distribution now is biased to speculation not common usage?


https://mises.org/library/inflation-and-fall-roman-empire

I thought Solar had become feasible now.    Not far from my house there is a solar farm that is feeding an oil refinery pretty sure (ironic).   Now the weird thing is where I live its not even that sunny but apparently they've produced something usable in a field for the factory, maybe because it can be placed so close.     The solar farm is next to a school which a normal power station couldnt do.

I rate hydro power over solar but it needs further development.    I also live a mile away from the worlds largest tidal range resource, they dont use it... So lots of waste and inefficiency remains sadly






I noticed this also but I dont agree with your conclusion exactly.  It only means right now a possible weakness lies, chart predictions are always possible scenarios or so the more experienced people I listen to say so.
A decades long trader whose covered crypto some for a while: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLs46mTO2c

Markets are irrational, we can all acknowledge the market has become biased towards speculation over actual trade.   It would be positive to see more growth but its hardly possible currently when we have the stupid situation of a mexican stand off with transaction fees where nobody is going to win long term but somehow it doesnt matter to the price.      Thats not really a conspiracy or even fraud, malintent just a bad combination of factors I think.

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence

It would be more irrational to believe there wasn't any market manipulation going on.     Every market has this, this is like people declaring bitcoin is used for crime when Dollar and Euros notes are the most popular way to transport value by criminals world wide.   Gigantic liquidity is why, watch the last series of Narcos for a fair explanation of the illegal trade constantly conducted in Dollars.


The point is to have an open competitive market available to all, then you have the basis for capitalism to take place.   Not that people will stop being greedy or trying to be dishonest, of course they will.   
Biggest problem right now is exclusion of participants by failure in the transactions fees

Its a problem for me or many others not able to shift great amounts,  I dont know who is creating the problem and why but it has to be got past by any means necessary.   I've heard it could be spam or a couple of things, I dont doubt people could try to attack bitcoin for their own gains but in any case a solution has to be found.   
   Most people in the world are pretty humble, I always see the smallest of trades being ironically the most important and most genuine kind of trade possible.   How big is the Coke company and all its doing is selling sugar water in a can right, I want to see Bitcoin back to being able to handle the tiny trades and respecting the little guy.   

I still see FIAT as the biggest threat to crypto, the banks very much want to take over the idea and do it their way with a centrally controlled unit value.    They'll win if people become divided I think

I have heard of lightning network but its only segwit adresses I'm able to use currently to alleviate fees, I'm just talking about the reality of the situation and how that feeds back into market demand.   Of course I want them to advance the capability of crypto far more then it is now especially for micro transactions, until its usable we are all speculating perhaps a little too much and hence the price pulls back to a more steady area.

I'm pretty sure all my transactions are micro!   I'm not a whale sadly, if fees have fallen to $2 then thats way more realistic for most people to use BTC.    I swear they recently halved, I'll check the graph site I have bookmarked and post the fee structure/backlog as I think its relevant



I dont want to spike the guys site with traffic, pm if you want a link as he gives a few dynamics

The point missed with derivatives is that not all of them will simultaneously payout.   Its more like insurance policies where there is a risk of many requiring cash payout but usually these derivatives expire worthless.

I dont know the deal with tether but it sounds like FIAT or even Mt.gox where price became centered to 1 exchange; inflated by fractional reserve which is not how Bitcoin pricing should be determined

This man speaketh the truth, dont put all eggs in a basket unless you Warren Buffet in which case he says its fine and watch it really carefully but he also says dont touch crypto.    Its known as asset allocaiton, never over balance yourself over weighted to one direction in all the various asset types.    Helps to stay afloat in rough seas which I think are a reasonable prospect

People say crypto is volatile but its partly born of a desire to counter the upcoming failure of world reserve currency which tldr could be a big game changer.    I think its all relative, I note that overall markets are selling off a bit recently.   The big deal to watch is Dollar strength, google dxy because thats the denominator to all prices even virtual

Good charts but its going to need more points on a trend to confirm that action as a valid point of any support of resistance I think.    Its possible for it to be too arbitrary, just drawn in to fit the data at present so it wouldnt give a good indication for the future exactly.

A trend is ok for a quick summary but a better show is a channel which is a set of parallel lines with some opposing show of regular decline in highest prices and lowest prices over time.



 
This is my very rough view and I go back to the ATH for reference of lower highers.  A proper rise requires us to break this decline at the highest point also

The shorter term trend has to do battle with the longer term trends.    The longer the dates of the trend, the more momentum it has and its a larger speedbump to any recovery such as the one you outline.

I usually take 4hr bars as the lowest serious time frame to consider movements in price.   The reason being the whole world fits into 4 hours, every section of the globe roughly overlaps each other by these 6x 4hr periods of trading and theres a new spirit within each one.   
Every part of the globe wakes up and has a reaction to the price and news and thats kinda more visible within each 4 hour time period.



My thoughts on this pullback was that the rise is faster then the recovery.   So my march date I was probably accounting for some pullback but not for the longer time to wind back up.   Also it may go quiet in Chinese new year, so a bit sideways more then a breakout just my guess.

Korea represents a large amount of volume by the people but I dont know about the exchanges.  Maybe they did a deal between exchanges, a forthcoming authorised tie up after the recent CFTC surprise



If this was stocks similarly this could happen however it never does because its so obviously a mistake.     The only possibility is very short term inaccuracies which are noticed by the market and adjusted naturally by arbitrage.  
Such as BP stock  is listed in New York and London (both holders are equal to each other) but obviously these two times of trading vary.   Especially with large moves inaccuracy can occur which falsely lists the company value, traders will step in short sell mis-attributed value.

The example you give cannot happen or should not because the market capital only relates to floated stock.   If Bill Gates owns 10% of the company and its the same stock he held since the 1980's then its not part of the market cap.  Same should apply to Bitcoin really, if the address is never used then its not part of the fairly rapid monetary velocity which makes up Bitcoin value.    That guy who lost his laptop in a landfill doesnt count as value, theres HODL and theres lost to any practical use forever so clearly he and that address should not be popping up on TV screens as 'the value of:'

So I assume all of Satoshi's money is quoted every time Bitcoin is discussed.   We know he is never coming back to trade that though, the ironic effect if Satoshi did return I believe would be a drop in price.   Just the new weight or equation of greater supply to the same demand.   It might also be a positive of course longer term.

Price is rebounding from an upper trend to the channel from ATH I think

^^ Right now I would be very surprised to be correct in any March date.    I should have added 6 months, same thinking just a rebuild takes longer to clear the previous debris.   I think we'd rise faster to 24k then if we had never been close, kinda counter intuitive

I sent with 31sat/byte the other day, low priority showed up after a few hours I think.    I'd state more precisely but the exchange doesnt deign to give me minor details like time.
That should be normal, 9 cents would be more like it   I hope we see BTC go for volume growth not absolute fees as it excludes too many normal people from normal usage



Actually this is an important point made against Bitcoin and crypto in general.   A criticism with slightly more finesse then Ponzi scheme, but of inflated value.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/paintingthetape.asp

Painting the tape or fake bidding in a price, the kind of trick that can happen most easily in penny stocks perhaps.   But as said above they take measures to exclude iilliquid stock value from indices.   I also thought they would exclude 'family' holdings of stock, like the family behind BMW for example but maybe Im remembering wrongly there - http://fortune.com/2015/08/06/johanna-quandt-the-billionaire-widow-behind-bmw-dies-aged-89/

Jim Rickards keeps getting asked to call out or argue against crypto in general, he recently mentioned this alot.    He is a former attorney for LTCM, one of the most wide reaching FIAT trading companies failures to occur.   At which point he became bearish on the dollar backed world reserve system.   I rate him overall, theres a few of these big bears who miss out the utility of bitcoin.   Iam also bearish on high fees in bitcoin for that reason, its choking natural growth which is a central requirement not secondary to asset speculation.

2mins in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6r04gfWfRkE

Relevant link popped up on distribution charts on various standards - https://steemit.com/investing/@danielclough/distribution-comparison-of-8-coins-blk-nav-pivx-ppc-ltc-dgb-vtc-and-btc

Someone do a chart for dollar, how overweighted are we to Federal Reserve or even worse for the YEN and BOJ


[Sent 0.0002btc with 4 sat/byte fee to exchange which acknowledges the attempt quite fast & Mycelium says unable to broadcast.   App suggested 4 sat itself]

Just to concur, I've tested with 4 sat/byte from mycelium with the app's suggested low priority amount.   It did state it had failed to broadcast for like 30 mins, the exchange itself showed it though and was waiting confirmation.    Now its saying 4 confirmations after an hour and the exchange is happy to clear it with that much.   So thats relatively fast, I think I used 15 dollars worth of BTC previously only for it to take 4 hours or more.

Probably a good time to amalgamate any left over funds in various places so its not marooned


https://i.imgur.com/zjve8Cd.png
Heres a snapshot to correlate with ones posted previously



Yes I think actually a bit higher then that is a good possibility, theres more of a question beyond that

  EMA Seems more like shorter term trading thing, the SMA 200 is what I watch for general momentum from the 2017 move, someone posted it up as a kind of value gauge, ie. percentage overhead that sma we are at


I'm sending the bits and bobs left in a wallet.  This is natural use and it was advised by the wallet app itself as a suitable low priority fee transaction.     I want Bitcoin to be open to all even those not in a rush, such as people house keeping left overs.   Seems a natural enough activity to me, obviously I couldnt do it previously but its a test of sorts also.

This isnt a bearish pattern.   Each low has been higher then the previous.   A trend can break but its mostly positive in my view.    Theres a flat top to the highs which suggests we need to break through some resistance. 
Overall longer term obviously we have had a downtrend and I guess sideways after that decline should be taken as a positive also.  So the rough top now is quite a high curb, it was the chunk of lows in November end before we rose in December alot.   It was Jan low and its been significant this month also.

Longer term trend with weekly bars shows pullback to a more sedate pace that matches the last year.  I drew this a while ago, upper boundary is about 9700.   Probably a more realistic guide then the shorter term speculation, lower markers are about 5000 for fib levels but our recent low matches November action best I think


https://i.imgur.com/6Y2EXPig.png

Better to sell on the way up, buy on the way down they say though getting off on the first rung of the ladder would appear silly later.   I dont think this is the first rung somehow.

Theres a double touch of resistance in quite a short period of time,  seems relatively bullish.    Broken a downtrend obviously but also a good regular uptrend since then represents some return to strength.

This resistance now seems like it would be quite significant, its matching late November action again - the final dip before the big rise.   Then again its also the support on the decline from the ATH, mid December a quick touch and then we dragged along the rocks here late Jan before doing damage enough to descend lower.   Here we return to do battle with this rough area around 11,259  

Also it shows as a 261% Fib line, to what event Im not sure.   One of the Chinese sanctions in autumn 

Is that Petro cash bad news for crypto overall in that it places an unfavoured regime in the space and its cash flows in and out of Bitcoin probably.   I mean with regard to oppressive regulation or maybe its even a positive in putting an OPEC sized economy into the crypto economy generally.   [Im not expecting Petro to be a proper/fair crypto standard but still it'll be exchanged]   I would equate that to Japan endorsing Bitcoin, they also have a failing currency though its incredibly under reported theres no doubt they have debt troubles beyond solution.  Of course Japan is a friend to the 'west' so no problem I guess




So doesnt this mean its primarily for business to business usage between themselves.  Does it remain a negative if its just one option in a variety of possible routes or do you see it taking over and diverting Bitcoin from its original course.   I just expect LN to be parallel (adding bandwidth) to the current situation or have I read it wrong.


I see BTC relatively bullish, target top would be 13024 or so, I really expect it to gather more strength but just below is 10000 which could be a source of strength and makes the price not especially risky right now?

Hate to be Debby Downer here at all but the question has to be asked, does that empty mempool then also mean less pressure from traffic/volume of Bitcoin use.    Obviously purely on exchange traffic matters less beyond speculation.     I mean a rising trend, which we have but also declining volume overall globally would not equate to a bullish confirmation.    Just a thought,  I'm not sure of volume as each exchange has it split of course and some major countries arent registering volume publicly any longer so its more of an opaque picture

I get a free gamble sent to me every birthday.   Its kinda bad timing maybe thats why they do it and they hedge every bet I take anyway no doubt.      With take a falling knife right now, the sensible plan is wait for it to land in the mud first     So confirmation of some kind above 10,000 or so is the higher probability bet then estimating below that line.   So yea a buy is possible but its not normally done below a ceiling I guess, that is worse odds or gamblers lucky hopes.

So 9308 is an area I watch for reaction, just a quick idea.   Last i heard was a pullback was on the cards so I guess that trader was right there, I was more bullish

So CEO of a company designed to make money from its users.    Right, so thats not related to crypto currency which is only ever going to suceed as a far more mutual effort while allowing capitalist principles to propagate globally without bias to politics or companies paying government bodies, etc.


Current market action would look more positive with a confirmation above 10,400 to move past a short term downtrend from the recent high of 11,788. 
10,400 also lines up as a fib level and possible support line for YTD pricing, very roughly speaking

I'd argue with him but it seems off topic for someone trying to start a new thread on their crypto currency idea.   I think its kind of amazing that a government currency might come to this forum to raise interest.   The world is changing, I'm not sure any government from any country comes here except for negative reasons or maybe I missed previous involvement.

Whatever new economic system they might be trying to setup there, the biggest enemy of success would be their own biased system.   Like an off kilter wheel is how I view bad systems, they destroy themselves not the people or even the dictators.



So that part sounds bad, not even oil backed or redeemable at some level.   I figured it'd be like the old 1960's US dollar.  A complete phase out of the bolivar would have been interesting to see, the first real national currency in crypto.
But alas unlikely.   I remember people setting national crypto alts in 2014, not with any backing or link at all in that case.


I've seen some traders estimate BTC as negative for not breaking upwards but I dont see an especially significant downward trend, not yet.   Perhaps needs a better look.

Proof of Stake has coin age to consider, any participant has to first be fully upto date and part of a network for some time in order to then be part of the staking process which even then is randomised not on demand.    Theres only some average rate at which a large holder will stake not that they can force participation.   POS is dangerous if the majority of a crypto currency is liquid on an exchange perhaps, its unlikely to be especially cheap to undermine in this way

I do imagine Proof of stake is going to be part of Ethereum this year as they move to make their transactions cheaper, faster and more efficient.   Vitalik Buterin seems quite focused on avoiding the problems bitcoin transactions had with mining fees and POS is the most viable route ?   I even see BTC could move to a more efficient model, I dont expect them to switch but its possible.  Some speculation there is no choice and energy consumption by the network means it must happen for BTC to stay competitive.   I'm very positive on POS since 2014, I might be biased  I'd like to see it tested by mainstream traffic loads alot more.


BTC price I had drifting below the upper channel.    If you take the overall trend as bullish, its in a value area.  Speculators will likely try to buy it on the lower channel in greater numbers.  Perhaps a return to early Feb prices, 8617 say.

https://stopthefud.wordpress.com/2018/02/24/georgia-bitcoin-taxes/
With a weak dollar still not in an uptrend I see overall BTC prospects quite positive medium term

Altcoin only in respect of its effect on Bitcoin I think.  Its still the case almost all Alt goes down when BTC does.     I see price as trying to break a short term channel from recent high, not sure about a descending wedge.   Confirm into five figures for a positive sign I think, closing daily lows of Jan also

I find it hard to measure strength without one exchange. 10,441 could be a fib level to cap this with 9231 the alternate side.  Quite constricted by BTC standards.

However longer term its seems quite positive action.   The downtrend would be in deference to this longer uptrend I guess


I see a big bar appear like that occurring right across a trend, I count it as marking out the trend as still in play.

   Is this the screenplay for Bitcoin the film.   Will Tom Hanks play Satoshi in the lead role, on the run from the evil agents of US Federal reserve.



Holding trend as bottom pricing seems like.

Actually this is very famous advice from one of the best managers in the business Peter Lynch.  Never invest in any idea you cannot explain with just crayons, he got this after running a competition with a school.    I tend to agree, the great ideas have a simple core.   I take it for graphs also, the strongest trends are not requiring much explanation or convoluted but quite a simple regular trend up or down.
Also self confirmation, the more people can observe a pattern the greater the participation occurs by speculators over any normal price action

http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013/08/07/the-peter-lynch-crayon-test-could-save-your-investment-portfolio/

This trend isnt the strongest one there.   I have less confidence it will hold as a negative then previous attempts.   However I've seen a few traders outline it as it was the trend to beat.     What I look for is the downtrend with the most confirmations over time, since ATH as they will represent the most volume also.

The outlier prices, spikes down and peaks arent always the strongest most significant of all.   The body of the market is deeper into the price, where genuine fighting goes on between bulls and bears.  But thats just my take, when/if we break that downtrend it may be the last gasp of the bear and see a greater pace occur until the next ceiling.   I guess thats how it works

Thats a pin on the 4hr bar, thats pretty positive by my reading.    Let it form and you come back later for your bullish action, every rise needs a concrete base to set first :p





apparently Im wrong anyway, whatever.  Go down to 30m and its fits :p  except 30m is pinball

10% fall after a tripling of the price isnt a big deal.   S&P is falling alot, maybe stronger USD

Actually that was a big deal.   I read an idea to release music on a blockchain, so distribution would be very cheap and somehow also secure in copyright control ?   Actually cant remember how they were going to do that.

In theory sounds like it'd be massive if they achieved this, of course a person could still just record the music playing or whatever media and reencode it.


The pin I mentioned held, decent rise from some support.  Bullish above 10629 say , 10727 a mark to beat short term.   That seems calling it far too precise, must be sideways btc

Good pin, rise from support and actually we arrive at a possible ceiling or fib level.    Not a hard level exactly but possibly a high like a few days ago and I believe its higher so generally bullish action.

11189 to beat which is also the shoulders of a head shoulders formation around mid February.  I expect resistance in short

Peter Schiff was talking about them, says the best thing they could do is buy land and setup business in  Puerto Rico because he believes all their digital assets will return to zero as he gives no worth to any crypto digital technology.  The reasoning being a lack of copyright like traditional non tangible assets.

Doesnt matter about agree or disagree with that point of view, it is probably a smart move to diversify and secure costs.  So the favourable tax laws and also owning your own land, good idea for anyone.   With the lack of power mentioned in the tail end of that article, I also hope they are considering becoming energy independent via solar power or similar.

Actually theres a long line of articles on attempts to found free capitalism states, countries even.   Not aware of anything being too sucessful, Puerto Rico has the problem of debts ongoing and it might just become a conventional state in the end anyway with all the same tax laws.


cryptography has been around a long time in some form, Satoshi securitised it into a digestible transmittable form.  There was PGP etc.
The whole tradable assets thing is what has conventional finance so flustered now.   I said to people Dollar was a digital asset and they wouldnt accept it, the metal coins mean nothing nowadays and the worth is largely theortical decided by Federal reserve in conference with US treasury a duopoly

Hate to be boring but you dont want a Lambo.  Its a depreciating asset with limited utility worth and high cost to maintain and insure.    A smart guy buys property which has utility worth and hopefully far smaller percentage costs.    Worst thing to do is to take an appreciating asset like crypto where you got lucky to be in the right sector at the right time and switch into something that loses you money and makes you poorer over time.    

Some time in the future this wont be the hot sector any more, it'll just be another sector thats idling with various people doing work perhaps but it'll come off the boil and not be as exciting.  Thats just market development, standard capitalism I guess.  Thats presuming it is a real market, we benefit from those who still wont recognise or compete in crypto and leave the spoils for others.      
Like Warren Buffet says gold is trash we take from ground and put back in the ground, no worth.  However gold has performed better then his results of the last 18 years apparently.   So he missed the picture somewhere, probably a similar dynamic occurring with crypto.   It wont always be true, Buffet won the last five years vs gold.   Ditto Crypto, it wont always the hot stock hence I wouldnt buy that lambo tbh :p  or anything that silly, I'd rather put down the deposit on the house I need




Regular staircase pattern of rising price in BTC.    Theres an obvious double top situation to contend, so obvious its a magnet like effect.  11788 upper and 11259 as a baseline to measure strength.

Well sure houses cost but that looks like a cheaply made one in a hurricane area on the coast.   Alot of DIY required if you wanted a cheap place to live on that one.    Alot of maintenance is about not letting it rot, if you live there its not as big a job or unfamiliar as fixing a v12 engine might be.   A cost of time and labour certainly.   Any asset costs in insurance and BTC is a secure system so that maybe thats a good point in its own favour (vs costing of banks etc).

However to say BTC costs nothing is clearly not the case, the miners have great costs ongoing.    Its stated as a real problem or a great influence in future price fundamentals.   The future of BTC relys on technology and energy efficiency to some extent.    Some will say POS will win the war vs POW because its cheaper.
I do think every economy is driven at its heart by efficiency, every price you can ever think of will be undercut by a competitor in a free market.  They undercut using efficiency and scales of economy.   So who is the threat to Bitcoin when considered this way.  Dollar is not efficient imo but there is other FIAT

I was saying this on the Petro thread, not sure who that OP is exactly.  Forget your enemies and the sanctions whatever is targetted as the problem.  A bad economy will destroy itself from within like a wheel with bad bearings.   I do expect BTC has to keep improving to enable growth which allows miners to keep making a profit, it cant be ignored. We sink if we dont swim


https://news.bitcoin.com/venezuela-orders-government-services-to-accept-any-cryptocurrency/


Thing with Ripple is there is always more supply the company has available in a queue waiting to release.    Price transparency is not there, its like sailing with icebergs or something.    Market cap will rise perhaps but it'll remain mostly under central control of 'the company'.     One for the fast footed traders to worry about, I'm out

They used not to let anyone with any kind of accent onto broadcast but now its pretty open.   I can understand him so not a big deal.  It adds character :p    Its down to the audience.

I think it sounds funny, no bother    You could object to the all the Japanese accents also.    Some languages the wrong accent changes the word meaning so that'd not work



BTC price is aproaching trend support, same as last low  - 10365

Its not especially pronounced, the moves up have been bigger so then the move down correlates to that.   There are still echos of the ATH which was fierce imo.   We are still far higher then I thought we'd get in total.   Last summer was about the target I had for this (bullish) move overall.   By now I expected we'd be repeating a much more boring sideways type consolidation, just retracting while actual trade markets underneath develop which does take more time then the market jostles up and down.

8838  bottom pricing but thats my 30 second take :p    The largest bar down was through the upper band of a long term positive channel so I presume the lower band would then buffer the decline and present some buying also


Sometimes less is more for sure  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yoSwdWG7EI

^^   Thats a self fulfilling prophesy.   Its really how the markets work, people sell before an event and then that event becomes an ironic point of strength as the selling is over.    Its not a bad point, I think it also occurs with stocks as alot of stocks are cashed in before quarter ends so that investment companies can mark off gains.     Is BTC still based around peoples income flows/taxes or more company balance sheets I wonder and surely not just USA but globally?


The bottom pricing held roughly, bottom of a long term channel, about 8895 now.  Late FEB low is around this current price , some profit taking from the more aggressive speculators who buy into the lows(and recovery) I would guess

Not only is 9989 very close to a nice round number its also a point for natural hesitation anyway with Fibonnaci levels around here.    I'm not sure its bearish or more volatile, bouncing between price points.  
Maybe the speculators will love this one and trade between two fairly close points, I'm unsure of strength in either direction





I'm looking for more buys before that.   8950 for a closing 4hr price say, it depends on how wobbly the price gets if we dip to 8700 before clambering back.

Useful to know, someone bump the thread if they notice any movement.    I do consider that kind of liquidity a temporary phenomena for exchange pricing.   Generally I think it equates to short term dynamic vs long term.


Generally its better to be buying into weakness but dont over balance.   Allow yourself to be able to buy every week because the hard bit is knowing the duration of each move.    If I saw those balances above all moving at once I would expect the price to become too cheap.    It would then spike down and back up again, sharp like shutting off a tap suddenly.   After that the market tries to right itself in one direction but a more progressive way.
They could drip those balances in over 6 months, I really expect that but cant be sure with a liquidator exactly.   I know with Lehman brothers, that company will be 'operating' running down its various assets for decades probably.

Heres the kind of reaction I was looking for however its not closed the bar and nothing is certain :p  



Too much cannot be written about the failure of the dollar, its very understated almost ignored as a possibility which makes it all the worse as unexpected to some.    Diversify

QE is scheduled to wind down but there is no exit plan especially feasible.   Ask the Bank of Japan if you dont believe it because they can never reverse what they have done.   Hence Japan is joining crypto.

A chart is for identifying a trend and extrapolating a higher probability path, bullish or bearish even is a profitable to know doesnt have to be exact.

Heres a chart from a long term trader who comments on the momentum and likely strength in BTC price



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6L5G97rHnvo

Its worth watching the vid for technique

Break of the uptrend leads to weakness and a fallback to lower Fibonnaci lines perhaps.  8500 I have and 8200 is marked by another trader I saw as support, showing now I think.   Target upside would be 9000 which is the trend.    The apparent incentive to sell is the google ban on ICO type ventures.   However I dont need google, isnt that Ethereum ventures not bitcoin exactly.    I dont see advertising as any great drawback when crypto was always about the crowd not the centralised giant companies.   If anything I'd be glad to a reversion to that strength.

8555 would mark previous lows, I think that area is roughly the first point to overcome above the current price

They paid 10 SAT per byte to send 132 million thats kinda nuts.   Could have added a little tip but ok.    Just an exchange moving its balance or similar I guess.    I'm not sure anyone bar the Winklebros brothers are that personally exposed without running it via a company


I see a wedge on the price.  Its only short term, just 1hr bars but also we are below a longer term trend (or just simply 200 DMA) so it might resolve downwards.   Expect more action (more volume ) outside of a break of this wedge then while it remains there I guess

This is very bullish action, Bitcoin always surprises me how rapid it recovers when it does.   My target upside is very real to coming round so I will judge by the reaction at that point, 9174 is roughly it though its also varying by time as its an uptrend not a fixed ceiling.  
I expect some kind of ceiling creep around there as its many months we have been rising at this rate (though with much volatility obviously) it will be on many traders radar by now.

Would you recognise the latter statement as wildly bullish because over the whole spectrum of mainstream views thats where it would be placed.     If your average person recognised bitcoin would never fall below 5000 again, it would then boost the price alot nearer to 20,000 if not more.      That kind of solid backing, a hard value set to the price would be a gigantic step forward and so much it would probably result in a price much higher then the actual 5000.

I was looking at DGX which I think is linked to a gram of gold as its backing.   People believe that backing is there but then the actual price is like 10x the market price for a gram of gold.   So they speculate far beyond the backing to it.  I think that'd happen to bitcoin and actually does happen.    We dont have a solid base line price but obviously bitcoin has a basic utility and ongoing value minus any speculation.    A really bearish estimate I heard for basic value from people who say bitcoin is worthless but then go on to say Bitcoin will always be worth $200 from its use by 'the illegal's who presumably cant use dollar (actually they can but whatever)    So the market price is a multiple of that base worth, you saying $5000 is massive and very bullish imo

Bitcoin is very reliant on its population increasing.  It needs more users so thats my take on base worth, the speculators are estimating a future price to some extent.  Same dynamic occurs with stocks

If you are here, its due to the internet which is... decentralised.   Yes it was designed that way quite famously, I thought everyone had heard of this.   Its very significant overall but also to crypto because otherwise it would be far easier to disrupt crypto standards.

So who does it matter to, everybody.     Not everyone has to use crypto but it should be considered in this way, in relation to the dollar reserve standard which is incredibly flawed and very much centralised.   Its an ongoing dynamic not a sales pitch to anyone or a slogan.   There are effects in play worth noting, this contrast between distribution and centralised authority and its effect on the failure of capitalism in the modern world is about the most important topic I can think of.
   Everyone is involved, either they speak or they haven't yet learnt the words or dont even understand the problem.  I dont think I'm wrong in assuming peak crypto could coincide with everyone speaking and everyone recognises there is a problem to global trade based on one country's currency.   Its been a known point of failure from its outset 70 years ago

Yep absolutely plus you have Dollar system and global currency generally in disarray.   Some kind of transition to a better system is happening, believe in something besides crypto if you like but it seems a bit ignorant to imagine or dismiss crypto will not be part of future systems.

Any good capitalist system is driven towards efficiency and involves competitive free markets, so of course price can come down but that isnt bearish of the sector overall.  The situation with mt gox was far worse with false accounting and an opaque failure, a market that is evolving is a positive so overall I will stay positive on crypto prospects so long as it keeps developing and improving utility.  Political currency or FIAT is seriously flawed and cannot be said to be doing similarly, on balance that makes FIAT weaker long term.

The recent high was a touch of the 200 DMA.   That general area is good resistance that will take some battle to surmount.   Price weakness probably relates to a common recognition of that I think, needs time.

^^ kudos for sources, doesnt mean they right of course


Well sure thats alot of good news but I thought markets moved ironically and the time to buy is when bad news is most apparent.  The old blood on the streets meta.
So good news being stated and obvious makes me look a bit closer.    The way speculators profit I think is price inaccuracy, people panic and weak hands let slip the BTC a little too easy, making a fast recovery possible.

Obviously I prefer numbers to fuzzy words.    My screencap thing is being a pain but this old chart says what I mean.   We close outside a short term negative trend which could be a positive.  4hr bar above 8000 is a good close, doesnt have to rise but just neutral is a positive vs falling highs previous

This is the plot to House of Cards I saw many seasons back, life imitating art there or maybe it was common knowledge for a while.   It seems quite short sighted of Facebook if they did not realise selling to the Russians would be a problem when there is ongoing sanctions if for no other point.   I presume they just sold to the highest bidder and did not follow due diligence in avoiding systemic risk to their business model.


I would not state 11k target especially now but its still more positive now then it was a day ago.    Every decent trend break needs confirmation, shake out those bears.    Sometimes it takes an entire spin of globe to involve all traders not just one mindset from one continents perspective.  

Jamie knows that if you short BTC you must go long USD which as a former NYC FED chief he knows is a bad bet overall

MasterLuc needs to note the DXY or dollar index rather then DOW which is only 30 stocks and more like a barometer of sentiment really.

Here is the ETF which should align quite closely but stockcharts.com has the dollar index I think



Dollar index fell from its high on the new presidential term high, its lost about 10% or so.  The ETF shows -14%, some of that is fees.   It relates to dollar worth and should be inverse to BTC gains some.   If we did get a (sharply, note 2008) rising dollar index it really would be bearish for BTC otherwise I dont especially think crypto is under pressure apart  from its own making

Funny thing in that video, he goes onto to recommend BTC in certain countries where they inflate the national FIAT currency.     So they dont do this is in USA at all, not to the same extent as Venezuela perhaps but certainly its in no way under control in Japan and I would argue also USA will not be able to control its debt.   The average term of debt for 20 trillion (increasingly more)  is 4 years,   thats juggling chainsaws for economic policy.   But none of this is accepted mainstream, it will knock onto crypto value and validity as a reliable exchangeable value system.

Japan has a horrible situation, demographically far worse then USA and the debt can never be controlled.   Japan holds 1 trillion of US debt, all these central banks are relying on each other but I think the system itself will give way.   So one of the main struts holding up US debt has serious problems sustaining itself.  Maybe crypto is part of a better system I dont know yet but its easily contestable what Jamie Dimon says about FIAT > crypto

https://youtu.be/40OuVyVGdIM?t=153

I think weakness would be mostly attributed to end of tax year?     Its left a regular downtrend, this is just irregular selling.   I would put a target of 7300 for the last trend as a bottom and 8300 as a target upside that would meet alot of the trades with price previously going sideways.

I'm not certain its in play yet or not but theres a very old trend going back to last May, price is now about 6991.   Its the same line which formed the bottom in Feb

666 was the S&P 500 low, wouldnt surprise me somehow.   I do have a trend low possible in this area but its exceeded it for now which can happen, depends more how it closes on a 4hr bar.    I think really have to wait for end of tax year for a decent rally to build but I would expect normally an area of buying to occur here.    Depends on shorts closing maybe, hard to say for multiple markets.  Right now the sphere of trading is with Japan and China  (neither of whom hold Easter holidays?)

I remember the last halvening and people leaned on it a little too much as a sudden change.  But it took some while to kick into effect with a lower amount of supply I think, with every block after it accumulated into a change.    Price did rise leading upto it but I think some of the effect in 2017 was from that change in 2016 coming through



The price is this area has a few points for hesitation, short term channel bottom.  Fibonacci level and also a long term up trend in this area.  The uptrend is something I drew in 2017, so hopefully I'm not biased in assigning it some significance.   I guess the momentum of any fall will take some confirmation to turn it around.     A common saying I hear from mainstream traders is the bottom is a process not an event.

The market depth chart does look bullish in theory, I guess they are measuring it against tether and just plain fiat in exchange accounts.   I think far more people are likely to take non crypto off exchanges but maybe thats just me.

I have 7117 as a 38% Fibonacci retracement line to measure the 'recovery' by and see what its strength is I think.
Outside a previous short term downtrend, longer term support area.  Theres a few reasons but theres not great volume either possibly

Last I read they were regretting not encouraging more tech business.   eg. UK version of facebook had millions of users but doesnt exist now.   Also UK has the most liberal finance betting laws in the western world, the EU wants to force legislation to restrict leverage on FOREX trading for example which is typically very high compared to stocks or bonds.


Reminds me of the days they taxed playing cards.   To sell a pack without the royal warrant could end in your death (customs have powers that include the military etc).    In many ways we live in the future with amazing tech but with continual stupidity repeated.   Should never happen in a democratic capitalist country.  In China they have the motivation to deny their citizens access to free use of private capital, its Communist it figures.   In the west it makes little sense

Winston knows whats up.    Thats probably a good applicable quote tbh, people just dont like the long game is more boring then everything right now

But yea why has the price just jumped 350 dollars.   I see  support in this area sure and any news?

I take racism as an idea as seriously as I might discussing flat earthers.   Or the stupid argument for Obama birth certificate.    The ironic thing there being Ted Cruz is eligible yet was born in Canada.  https://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/13/opinions/amar-cruz-trump-natural-born-citizen/index.html
Is he the Zodiac killer we dont know yet

I dont comment because its all nonsense, its not agreement so I'm just replying on your point there.    I'm generally hoping crypto types are the progressive sort not cavemen against global trade between various parts of the human race.   That would be conflicting views imo

A price that moves in one direction only is too close to free money.   Doesnt happen in a free market, it will always double back and take profits.    Even while its moving a bullish or bearish trend.  

So whats most relevant here is strong support negated, an april fools price.   I saw this on twitter, a false breakdown is strong confirmation of a good reversal.   Not exclusively a crypto thing, happens in lots of markets.   Because BTC is global and never closes its also quite a unique market to judge but I think the commentary is correct so reposting :p

The point here is the price of gold is not supposed to be especially volatile.   Its not seen as a positive for price stability if a price changes considerably in a short amount of time, this is true of a positive price rise as well as negative falls in a price.

Of course we know in a developed market many parties are glad of a lower price.   With the gold the point is value held over hundreds to thousands of years, obviously not in dollar terms.  In dollars the price changes massively, however the easy conclusion is that dollars are worth far less in 2018 then 1918 hence the change is the dollar not the gold itself.     Its an ongoing indication that dollar is flawed in any saved value capacity.

Theres no great criticism of gold in what you have posted.    I'm sure it has negatives, its only a heavy piece of metal however it has held its value for longer then any other asset.   Bitcoin should be closer to a growth asset, I dont think it'll ever be as stable.
 I do hope bitcoin will develop further and become more usable, more integrated and so more highly valued in real terms regardless of what dollar is doing.  Gold we can be sure will do nothing, its an ironic positive in defining a steady fixed value.  Make sure to hold a little bit of gold, its arrogant to assume every other generation was wrong on this

Bitcoin has to be more usable, integrated and seamless basically.   End of the beginning is the phrase I agree with.   You will know the mainstream is in on this market when its just part of a wider menu they are actually using bitcoin underneath whatever product is handling them as customers.    All the hype is nonsense, an over focus, the irony would be success coming with the opposite and BTC just being part of a plethora of genuine new era technical advancement.
 Just like I have very little idea how my remote control works for the TV, I just know it changes the channel with very little effort.   Sorry if there is genius going on underneath my entertainment and lounging on the sofa eating food watching junk TV but thats the mainstream they dont care about your product innovations, its just about you serving them.  

I dont see it as a consumer brand name, unfortunately there is no copyright on the name as BCH has demonstrated.   I see BTC as something that'd be on an enabled feature list, like HD or 4k on a TV and people will have to demand that technology be included correctly (not some poor copy) .  




I think 7481 is a price point between the recent daily high and low that will show confidence to continue or if the market requires more confirmation.

The price sure looks bullish vs sentiment to me.   Considering its a possible double bottom I thought I'd load up a meme avalanche on opening this thread

Maybe its too perfect but all the recent closing 4hr bars confirmed support very well.     Overall I do expect selling to be part of the story upto April 16th tax return day ?   But USA is only 1 country and this is about the world too with other stories.  I always thought buying was more about Asia participants personally

Over 12k is a hard one because thats major resistance quite easily I think.    It was the pit stop in November before being exceeded, wasnt a selloff but a ceiling occurred around there.   If its 10k in EURO then I guess this makes sense, round numbers being significant is nonsense (long term) so I guess thats a point against it also.
12k was also support in December on the way down and pivotal a few times since.    I'd state an earlier time if we were saying 11500 perhaps.

  Think I'll go with August 29th, which is the anniversary of skynet becomes self aware      Cant say I know when exactly but the anniversary of 2017 summer peak is probably fair though I think it might also take till Autumn to actually settle longer term above this point

WO in pictorial form if we were all horses




The price is consolidating and I presume its also associated with end of Tax year in multiple countries.    There is no one reason as its a global price with multiple themes but my general take is not to expect too much.



Trend ceiling there is long term going back into in 2017 and support line also happens to be 423.6% of last summers peak, so both are reoccuring themes.   I dont especially rate the price as negative and obviously its also struggling some under load whenever it endeavours to progress higher.

It might save you if you were a silversmith and able to utilise it in value creation via skilled labour.  Silver is an industrial commodity, mined alongside such common metals as lead.   Its never rare exactly but also its highly useful maybe increasingly so following the rapid decrease of conventional photo development consumption.   I think I saw a chart showing greater demand for silver in a way like lithium is expected to rise, due to new energy technology types.   I think it'll be a vital metal for reasons like that but I dont know it'll take off exactly, I do think it'll maintain its value for sure from current $16 (long term)

Silver price prospects will suffer quite alot with any knock to global GDP estimates (I dont think its overpriced at all presently).  Its a long road to any monetisation concept, I think if gold does raise greatly silver will be picked up but not in a steady way.  Its not a bad hold but I wouldnt say its especially superior to oil or any general bet on world commerce out pacing the devaluation of dollars.   One of the biggest subsidies for crypto is the failure of US dollar rates to offset effective inflation, if there really was a strong dollar it would greatly impede growth here I think as well many avant garde technology areas still developing.

  I generally agree strong dollar is impossible now, its holed below the water line but market prices wont reflect that for years probably.   I expect dollar to rise with appearance of higher rates and QE reversal though its impossible to complete especially without a budget surplus and we just saw thats not happening, the biggest market prices can  be wrong and still have secondary effects on smaller markets like this one.

BTC price is dismal / idle / drifting.  A flat wedge perhaps looking purely short term, is it waiting for something.

Is a rise to 35,000 a positive in terms of an overall market.  That rapid a price change seems to represent higher volatility.    Some other thread was asking if everyone would drop BTC if it stayed at 7000 and I mentioned the obvious fact that a stable price helps contract settlement  (pricing confidence).

If bitcoin goes to 35,000 why is it any better then your local house tripling in price and becoming an unavailable purchase for the younger generation in that neighbourhood.   We might view a higher price as a positive but also I think it brings some negatives with it, because the market is both buyers and sellers.
  I'm really more interested in the underlying market developing, I know the price is nice to see rise as a positive indicator but revenue and general population of bitcoin users rising is probably a great positive longer term


That would be very bullish if true.   It makes more sense if China engages with technology.   However crypto is in conflict with capital controls and overly authoritative regimes.   Massive irony with the Petro issuance for example, except they are able to continually issue more PTR unilaterally so Ive read

Well in London, I know people mainly in the minimum wage workers and some immigrants from across Europe even end up sharing rooms in a house.   So in effect people do buy into fractions of a house, instead of having their 'own place' they have somewhere to sleep only for 8 hours out of 24 in the day.   1 room out of 4 in a house for 1/3 of the day is someone living in 0.0825 of a house sadly.  

London is a great example of a constricted market, very limited land and increasing demand, population growth.   Price rises are related to government policy which subsidies housing and gives tax benefits.   Bonds are in a bubble and allow this

Tokyo residential prices have fallen from quadruple London prices in 1990 to just one quarter now of London houses prices in 2014.    Is that a bubble or a result of Japans population failing.   The YEN and government Bond pricing is related to that, we also know Japan holds 1 trillion in US treasury debt and now is greatly involved in Bitcoin.
     I see all of crypto as being related to these larger problem economies and I dont think we are the weak spot in the bigger picture at all.   Which means a higher or at least stable BTC price is a reasonable prospect by long term factors

China also has a falling working population believe it not.  They have labour cost inflation, as a big exporter I think that also knocks onto world inflation and the value of currencies.

Rich people and tax benefits are going to be strongly related then.    For example there is no tax on classic car and asset appreciation in that field within the UK, dont know about other countries.

Thats a really big positive underlying factor to that market.    I aint rich, I dont care that much about tax benefits so much as I'm not giving away 40% or more from my income.   But I imagine its a big benefit or incentive to those with money if housing speculation were more favourably taxed then normal income.

Also in contrast to bitcoin, gold is tax free in the UK.   Some of the coinage has zero taxes on it despite being nearly pure gold, because of the historic gold standard.   Rather then hold bitcoin and pay capital gain taxes, there has to be a large bias to gold from this.
Silver, whoever keeps mentioning that is taxed with VAT or sales tax across most of the EU.   So in UK that would mean you must pay 20% taxes to government to hold silver.    I would only buy silver secondhand really, nicely tarnished might help get a good price.   Every market has large varied influences, some external on it.

Its possible people have time share on housing I guess but Bitcoin wins on being more fungible and easily exchanged.   It doesnt normally have a yield on it like housing can though

Probably worth a buy in general.   The trend has been good since last December when we fell back to confirm the previous downtrend in Gold and that trend now broken.   I'd say its generally bullish since then.
  Ironic as Federal reserve in theory is raising rates but we all know the real story there right.  The giant US budget deficit should make it pretty clear, loose money will continue.   Also a bullish sign for crypto in general, the perma bears need to consider both sides of the equation and dollar value is in decline, see Bond yield    ^TNX

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?ql=1&p=^TNX

I'll do my best to be bearish for you.    But I was holding because it seemed to me the risk reward didnt favour selling, simple as that.  Nobody ever knows for sure but at times its silly be bearish and thats true when the price is drifting sideways because that isnt a negative.   no news is good news meta, because underlying BTC is progressing anyway.  I often think similar for gold, the dollar has great problems ahead ditto yen and many parts of Europe etc  weakness in FIAT relates to use of crypto


So a negative price target now is 7200 because that was my short term upside target previous.  We broke through, massive bar, big volume thats a good break but also I'd expect confirmation.   So we play out the most negative scenario but even so overall its quite bullish.

There is a theme of surprise to the upside at the moment because short interest is at all time highs.   Which means buyers, forced in the same way leverage buyers are stopped out on the way down and price becomes surprisingly weak there


I dont have it drawn on this graph but 7200 is the long term uptrend line.  

A good tattoo is very clear or done by an amazing artist maybe.   Just keep it simple with the rollercoaster bit.    I wanted a tattoo done in UV ink so it only shows under special light not in a business meeting :p

Major stop loss hunt?  Thats fine, I dont have a stop loss for better or worse.  Price does not always determine value perfectly, I agree a Richter scale move is still probable.   I hold some gold just in case in a boring way because its inert and doesnt grow and doesnt lose value in bad times/deleveraging events.

The world in general will go through a deleveraging nuclear winter kind of event at some point because we are so reliant in one countrys currency as the backing for world trade.  And its highly stacked.  A perfectly orderly transition to less political and military biased trade is unlikely, hopefully its technology based and more balanced to people not central powers.  Of course Bitcoin should be part of that.

Pic of exters triangle for anyone not familiar

Karl Marx relied on his rich friend for his upkeep, his friend inherited that wealth.   Had Marx worked for a living he might have come to other conclusions based on reality
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#New_York_Tribune_and_Journalism



I think its just round number-itis mostly.    Overall I rate it very bullish above 8500 and probably until 10,000 for the same reason when it might need to reconfirm previous action at that point.   9074 as a ceiling I did have drawn in, I think its the late march peak but not especially a long term solid point

9231 was the late feb low, bullish above that level would be a good measure

If the point is true it still stands, I dont know if they are trying to misdirect and imply BCH is the last bastion but the idea is a general one anyway.    Ive heard before the idea consensus forms the basis of money and value exchange.  This is one point I heard made by an economist who says Bitcoin or any other crypto will (nearly) completely fail.  He still makes the point that BTC is money because of that idea, a collective valuation and fungibility also I guess

https://youtu.be/I4xpZm7JlqU?t=137

I buy with zero confirmation on bitcoin all the time.  Its a gold price fix for deposit, I guess if it were fraud or incorrectly displayed they could just reverse it anyway.   My purchase is not for instant delivery so its not really a problem, surely this is the case in lots of transactions.    The problem of buying a cup of coffee even doesnt seem that great as they can just ban you from your local and the shop has only lost a disposable cup really.

With say buying shopping, my local supermarket has a system to checkout your items as you take them off the shelf and put them into the trolley.   By the time you come near to the exit of the shop, the items would have already gone past more then 1 confirmation I guess so that system could work with bitcoin also (its been done via some FIAT mobile phone app currently).


Alot of commoditys expire after some time, even copper can degrade.   I dont really agree with the idea of ransom, its utility people are paying for.   In any case most commoditys are obtainable via alternative means, cornering the market seems quite unlikely in most situations.   Platinum I read is unlikely to ever become a monetised commodity because the reserves are too centred to Russia apparently.    I'm bullish on gold but theres a ton of the stuff out there, banks are buying this up actively but it still wont ever actually be rare howver demand could outstrip supply over a decade.      Thats comparable to growth in bitcoin, supply is lower then likely population growth of users.
  A feasible scenario leading to likely price rises, with gold the higher prices enable greater production ditto oil and many other commodity types but bitcoin supply growth never occurs hence the price dynamic we've all become accustomed to.

Is it too late to post this, one of my fav cartoon memes. click for video

9277 is some relation to the 8500 area and another stage of the recovery from high of Feb and early March

Seems fair reasoning.   This is the blockchain that proceeded with least disruption and most compatible time line.

If it wasnt already clear, segwit is useful. Its not like the core protocol was stagnant and neglected, it could have arrived a bit faster as I saw the fees problem was really not good publicity for Bitcoin.
However the bottom line is the big fork done in the summer wasnt necessary, development was occurring anyway.  Regardless of the price, I'm bullish on Bitcoin prospects because of this open development ongoing that give utility while remaining optional.   My ideal is that people have the simplest path forward because the majority of the world just wants a product to work for them not vice verse.  Thats a bullish scenario if they keep improving the base case for Bitcoin utility.

Price in the market exchanges is something different from population and natural growth in use, thats more important if anything.   Maybe the best compliment to BCH is that its part of competitive capitalism, many markets try to develop monopolys which is not always so good for consumers.

As often the case with Bitcoin I'm surprised how it moves more rapidly then I would expect.   This is true in both directions but I always expect it to take longer upwards then it does.    My very short term view is price confirming above previous resistance, this is working its way through orders overhanging from the decline.     The Tide returning picking up the old bands of seaweed on the shore, not quite sure of that analogy but theres memory in the price is what we are encountering here.   I do rate this positively, I expect some pullback from 9277 but its just stepped over it


https://i.imgur.com/ffINn1k.png

I dont care about BCH so much, its Ripple I worry about more with a giant market cap and its opaque non liquid holdings that slowly derive a massive benefit to that central authority.     The scary thing is FIAT occurring in crypto form and corrupting its core principles and deceiving the masses into accepting which isnt really beneficial for them.   Such as for example the Petro token issuance on a national scale, apparently there is no cap or limit to how much extra coins can be produced by Nicolás Maduro regime which is worrying to say the least.   The path of least resistance says what unfolds is quite predictable and negative, though I would love to be proved wrong and crypto could be a massive positive nationally.   Events like Mt.gox or whatever future echo of that centralised failure, by mis-selling crypto is damaging to everyone

 10,000 rings the bell for alot of people, it develops its own gravity that likely pulls us in.   I'm more concerned if we keep 9300 area as a low then the higher price.   I presume people will see 5 figures and then take profits, that seems to be how it works most times.  Speculators work to get us there and then pull the plug collectively and we then get the genuine action in reaction to the price.
Not that USD round figures even matter, its just the hive mind or something :p

Animated rocket pic as requested:

On the positive side, this sharp pullback puts my prediction back into line for a longer term recovery to 12k area.  So theres that 


I would be more bullish had we reacted and held the 9277 area but that only happened somewhat before putting us below.   Now we have 9000 area to contend with and I think being bearish here is too late to the game but also some wider consideration is required for targets.   9000 is more significant then 9277 so Im waiting for its reaction to that

Markets never work like this, because it was a well known event the price rose before.    When actual halfening occurred, the price fell or was weaker for a while at least.   Too much anticipation for an event which is gradual and accumulates on the lower block reward.
However some of the rise going through 2017 is attributable to the reduced supply via lower block reward, its not as obvious but its part of the background story.    Same as when I'm bullish on BTC when the fees are lower, it help raise participation.


Price is very bullish through lines of resistance, 9k hold looked good from the start and this big bar confirms a break up past previous negative action. Looks positive to me

It could be a big sell put through badly even if reversing right away.   If someone sells in completely the wrong place they will find an equal amount of buyers very quickly willing to take part.   Anything can move shift the needle manually but it'll not stay there without reason, depends on the volume available that moment also.   BTC can be like a Richter scale but theres still a trend in there.

We're confirming past the late March selloff channel, thats bullish just to stay above.    Also 50sma on 4hr bars seems to underline the rate of the rise roughly

You could invest in all those things if you counter balance it a bit with a gold holding.   Also avoid leverage is usually best as thats how banks often profit the most, from the people in the most difficult situations.
In 2008 one of the largest banks who received a bailout setup a special division to hunt down business that was relying on them, foreclose and seize the assets for a quick turnover.  They needed the cash quick to appear solvent and taking it from those who cant argue because they took a loan is the easiest way.   Bank overdraft almost always contains the warning we can withdraw and demand repayment immediately and quite a few businesses use those I think.

Otherwise I dont think they can remove your property rights so easily.  You are part of a larger group there.   The guy who called the MBS melt down now owns some bank stocks apparently M.Burry

Price has a stair case higher, looks quite steady progress overall.  9600 area would be over 61% recovery of the double peak decline for this year

The ETH estimate is really off seems like which makes me negative on the other guess.   99,191,005 ETH   x  15k   = 1.5 trillion ?  


Pump presumes its just a small number creating a rise, that dynamic is more suitable for smaller alt coins then BTC.  Just like its the penny stocks which get targeted more then any Blue chip stocks.  I dont think google rising would be a pump, there has to be some large scale mindset to believe they have substantial growth ahead of them.  Might be wrong in that thought but still not a pump when big tech stocks, etc rise so much.

Oil is rising strongly at the moment, speculation is common.  Part of it is very reasonable, Venezuela has serious production problems from a failing economy and Iran situation is some worry.   Even with OPEC in the picture I dont call that a pump either, the rise is genuine its largely a free market afaik.

Volume in BTC is a bit of a guess, I'm not clear on it just I see people refer to Bitfinex as the largest so most reliable source.

BTC still more bullish then I expected.  More of a pullback I thought would occur but its up again. 9169 I would watch short term to confirm above as part of a moving average or momentum to the rise since early April bottom

I presume thats a positive because it allows for a fixed price to be set in contracts or a known liability when an enterprise involves itself in crypto.  Helps ensure stability some hopefully

^^  One of the tweet links posted includes a phishing type scam where its duplicated the appearance of the Elon Musk account (verified blue tick also) along with a request QR for funds on a lottery in the name of Candy he mentions.    Kinda sad

When he speaks like that its not especially appropriate for a CEO, I dont personally care and I hope the guy has fun or otherwise whats the point.  But as the head of Tesla he is doing harm quite probably, refusing finance questions, etc.  Tesla shares should probably half in valuation to be realistically priced, I expect quite a few dont appreciate the lax attitude and its crappy the scammers are piggybacking off him like that also.  I couldnt spot any category to report scamming, it might be an obvious scam but it'll catch people I have no doubt.  



Its not deliberate, just a confluence of selling occurs around simple round numbers.  Anytime the market unites on idea expect significance and action in that place, doesnt make it 'true' as such just some eddies occur in this area.      It might be the weakest form of resistance, hence why BTC looks quite bullish  despite the hesitation.
  I actually think the 200 moving average just above is going to matter alot more and confirming back above will be far more important.   The 200 moving average is still rising, not flat or declining which Im told is significant and adds positively to the outlook outside of short term.

The reason BTC price rises so much is unlike most commodity markets the supply is fixed and not subject to oversupply as much as a normal market that will increase production to match the increased profit available.   
I like the general point about freedom of production but I think its more reliable to keep a quota of blocks in this case, security is the main purpose that must be served

I prefer this as it should increase stability and support and also I think it promotes innovation and creativity, any failures of those ideas occur off the main chain.  Leaving BTC to be the most regular reliable central blockchain


 9231 support & 9909 ceiling, both fib lines seem a good match to action recently.

Not everyone needs drugs to reach that level, even smarter to realise its near disaster for some to partake in those additives when they are already 100% proof.  Alot of creative types go down a horrible road when they fail to understand this about themselves I always think its a waste.


Politics dominates economics now so its slightly impossible to avoid some convergence of those topics.      The dollar reserve system (globally) is subverted by its black hole centralisation to an overly powerful government force that has no limits to its budget and has lost a need to justify itself to its people or other nations.   Not that Im against this particular government or either side of the aisle but that the system itself is off kilter is increasingly not beneficial.    That is ingrained in Bitcoin I think, I dont see how you can be long term involved and not have noticed that at some time or another.  Its generally true that the common working man is becoming poorer for the same work done, central government is becoming larger with greater debt.  Theres a noticeable trend occurring not really reliant on personal opinion or bias.

Capitalism is not centralised and does not have this bias to serve government as its arbiter.   Ultimately it should represent competitive free markets, where success is determined by innovation and efficiency.  Getting rid of government would not be the same as requiring it to be justified and hold a balance sheet capable of surplus.  Wherever you stand its dangerous that government is incapable of returning a surplus right now, it must be capable of this to repay a debt and if it cant repay a debt then its not crypto who will pose any threat but government itself will collapse inwards.   I suggest standing well back and do not be reliant on something failing this badly even if it makes you sad to see it, I think its quite inevitable.

Not even a political view, its probably provable in engineering and all kinds of different subjects.  True as a general principle.  Politics is a diverse subject, its the luxury of an advanced society true since the Ancient Greek system but we risk losing that freedom and diversity if the system fails so badly because people would not tolerate alternatives and competition was deemed dangerous.


Some comparison views.
https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/993607620064882690

roach you remind me of Bobby Fisher with your obsession.     Why would you only be concerned with just one section of the world that may oppose you, seems far too optimistic when it could just be everyone at least to some extent.   I dont give any great credit to any nation or section of the world population to be my sole enemy and only concern to problems ongoing.   You ever consider if the world looks purple and off-colour, you might want to remove the tinted glasses you are viewing everything with.
  Usually the greatest problems come collectively that we are all partly flawed and the worst mistakes are when every person overlooks that error and so its duplicated to an extent where a flaw can become a crevasse.    The information you mention is already considered many times over

If you wont take any criticism at least avoid repeating yourself, I got the message previously.


Of course you can do this.   All those things exist nearby to me, send them to me immediately is perfectly possible in many cities.    The payment transaction to justify the movement of the goods is more select technology.   I send gold grams all the time, its not decentralised but I'll trust that provider I guess as its in their interest.   To provide a global exchange system is far more ambitious.

Bobby Fishers mother was Jewish (also likely his father) and so was he, that was the point I was making.  The problems he attributed as some kind of conspiracy was just a poor way of dealing with his own internal conflicts.  I presume it was easier for him to shadow box with this mythical enemy then beat himself up over his own failings.  It doesnt take much to realise both entities were the same, himself.
He was a genius and he had massive flaws along with it



Heres a better quote, generally true and more applicable to bitcoin and modern forex market moves long term I think

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Robert_J._Hanlon
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/features/3635401/Bobby-Fischers-final-bizarre-act.html

Speculators naturally evaporate under heat, its natural they look for easy trends and continuation not the turning points so much which is more of a process of confirmation of various support I think


Its the little bitty 'investors' that matter way more then the whales.   If it was not that way then it'd be all about Bill Gates being negative or whoever, we'd never have got this high in the first place.  They are confounded by Bitcoin because its nothing to do with the usual elite money flow which is, FED > QE > Banks > Blue Chip business > Long term owners of low tax assets.
Gates can issue his debt for 1% over five years, BTC function at present anyway represents no purpose in comparison to that

Real capitalism is coming from the billions not the rarefied Washington lobbyists.   BTC might not be quite that large but its probably much more diverse then has become normal with USD debt economy hence we've had the bell rung for BTC maybe a hundred times now.   I'd like to think it best serves the little guy and prospers by that association, leads to some confusion for those who've had their head in the political trough and see the world through that prism.


I had BTC in downward channel and breaking out.  Just a short term observation but its reentered that channel and come near to hitting the bottom trend line to that formation.   I'm not sure its valid when it varies this much and reverses but my guess this is poor timing for sell on that basis.    A better look would have been confirmation and a further rise above here.  Longer term trends are more reliable to call

Thats a western paradigm which holds alot of weight when the centre of the universe is Washington manufactured USD but with Bitcoin I do expect a seperate dynamic more globally based.  Apart from the price being quoted in dollars I really think the driving force is from Asia or any productive nation especially outside the inner circle of QE reserves.   I believe more selling exists in western markets then what is really driving Bitcoin up more then most of us expected long term.

Its not what I'd call a bear market, it feels alot more positive.   A rising 200 day average also seems to clash with that, maybe in time we see that measure turn negative and we should expect some decline and more challenging action.    I see indecision perhaps but not a negative market.

I'd be fine if we end 2018 hovering anywhere round 10,000, I would never have guessed that previous to 6 months ago.   Worst case to me is to flip with high volatility and for BTC to be so unpredictable it throws and deters longer term investment and usage.   So if flip between 1k and 10k violently then sure, but just being boring and going sideways into 2019 at around this price level then its fine.
Maybe its bad for speculators and exchange monkeys hoping for the bigger swing but its really the base users who matter more.  Its possible futures have stolen some of that action, I would guess its some competition and pricing operating off the chain.

If the wider implication for BTC is we need to accumulate price or its somehow a negative then I really hope thats wrong.  Price should not equate to flight speed where we stall if we dont break 10k, I really disagree. Price is just an arbitrary figure and the world should be served by BTC at 3k just as much as it is at 10k.   Its a problem if that were true, price very likely rises from growth but unlike the FED I dont want to call inflation growth.



I dont know if its especially useful but I'm going to leave the channel in as I think it effects prices some. I still expect more positive action then prior to us leaving the trend down

Something to do with lambos and a conference is a reason for a rise.   Not sure how Lambo adds up to anything more the doge meme but this article was funny


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-14/bitcoin-climbs-from-three-week-low-as-lambos-take-manhattan


So he is arguing against competitive currency valuation or the status of the USA economy before Federal reserve arrived and saw 90% of dollar value lost.    Every so slightly self biased in his observation possibly.


If something is continually failing, a drift or occurrence of alternatives is a very healthy response by the economy to avoid that failure.  If the devaluation benefits some it does not benefit the millions who start life with nothing but their own labour and payment for that labour.

Some people calculate the tax rate including sales tax and all the other kinds of tax.   By that estimation I've heard people say they pay 50% of everything they earn back to government local or federal.  Not sure its correct because it would requires millions in income (and spending) to be true but I believe its possible.  
  Rich people usually run their money through a company or trust setup because these organisations get to spread their tax over many years not just one and its far more efficient when an economy and incomes naturally vary.   Of course then that requires people to organise that company for you, so theres a bias to being rich possibly.   I agree with something along the lines of flat tax; zero discouragement to maximise your income and probably this kind of tax has to be sales based.
 Qatar has the best setup they just pay everyone 20k base income which stops welfare being any discouragement from earning.  Also Qatar is a stupidly rich state and doesnt allow 'foreign' citizens, this is why economics becomes politics very easily  

Putting money towards the pension is just a smart way to reduce tax, cant really say they are then struggling.  



Bad words to say.   Might as well throw a mirror over your shoulder saying such things    Profit I just call a secondary objective that might result from some very good primary objectives achieved by some project.  Where people place value is not certain, can even be random and trend based.   The market can be nonsense not reflecting innovation in proportion.     Was LTC the best of all those different coins to survive best, it was probably just a lucky mix of factors and good/early timing.


BTC held 61.8% of spring weakness, which is pretty sound.  I thought I'd log onto to see a decline past that 8092 line and 8487 is next bar in that ladder.  8092 area is roughly where the first recovery from the April bottom went sideways, so its fair place for it to find support now.

I dont think the deal with the banks is new especially.   Bank failures have occurred previously, boom situations that blew up even but the most obvious difference now is large central government.   The banks are a side story, the main reason why banks could not be allowed to fail in 2008 was because they are backstopping the government debt that has become so common.   Is that what made the Lehmans CEO so damned determined to carry on, he calculated on this effect.  Certainly debt influence is evident in Japan and USA and many other western economies with faltering GDP growth for many years.

Im told China has a debt problem, they have a lower working population occurring every year but I dont think thats going to be a near term failure for them.    But the banks I dont see as the primary cause of past or future failures, I think its something like 90% of mortgage debt in USA is operated by government.   Part of the story for 2008 was loan rates set low by Federal reserve dictating its central interest rate from coast to coast.  It was wrong to do that in some areas, maybe overall it was wrong but nobody can challenge a bank of that power and size.
  Like that line I heard, when the dot com bubble burst the prices for houses in silcon valley went up.  Im not blaming the banks for that strange price movement, I blame the system of subsidies that comes via central government

  It might have banks dealing in it but its the government allowing that debt to occur and accumulate further.   The normal process is for debt to get called out, rates rise and ratings reduce for those with poor history.   Theres a kickback effect to poor returns that restricts further growth of those negatives.
Government is not a competitive market, it can become massively wrong because it goes unchallenged.   I dont care who in politics is right or wrong but the system overall of untested debt, non competitive market and unilateral laws is probably allowing a greater future failure to build up.    That means 2008 is going to reoccur  in some shape or form.  Those events were just a tremor compared to future failure seems likely, going by trillions owed and trade deficits etc.


Hows that pair into crypto I dont know.   At least one view I heard is crypto relies on loose dollar and cant survive without it.    Or it might thrive with the world aware and accepting debt must be ended/paid, leading to devaluation of dollar and higher prices for everything priced in dollar

 Iam not sure if thats a valid business or not but the point I would make on this is publicity.   Thats all Im reading with enterprises like this, its all justifiable to them on the basis of publicity, propagation on an enterprise idea and engagement with the public.   If somehow association with crypto or block chain makes people feel more likely to take up interest in your idea then its going to become part of the meta for any startup.

I'm thinking of how much does Coke spend on advertising every day, we all know this product already and still they spend a ton putting it back into our brains to pick up this special sugar drink at a premium price.   So any business needs people to recognise and accept that product in order to be successful, it could be the main reason for success or failure.   Companies like this just piggy back onto the latest trend to gain a cheaper audience then anything like Television adverts would cost them.  
Im not against it exactly, any free app is justified if they can stick a free advert on the bottom.  Now they have your attention and you get the free use of their coded app, everyone is a winner.  Its a mutually beneficial relationship.  Advertising is the original E-currency for the internet is how I see that.  It might be tied to dollars in some conventional way, but adverts I consider like a kind of currency that paved the way for alot of small fast development online I think.


Debt by % GDP
https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/#home

Japan is worse situation then Greece.   However they can print money, I think the majority of know that solution is more of a fused delay

Its not bullish till it holds that blue line, a break would also illustrate a harder selloff then normal.    The trend just shows a point of significance not that it must bounce at that point.  Anyhow before that time we have the credit contraction and tumble in pricing.     That seems quite likely to happen with Federal reserve no longer operating QE, some small raising of rates and if they actually stop renewing the debt they buy and just return it to market then that raises market rates quite I think.

FED was the largest buyer by far in this last decade, larger then China or Japan which holds 1 tn of US treasurys.   If they arent buying and even selling, its a tide change that possibly alters the price of everything that dollar touches.
Japan I dont see as a solid pair of hands btw, how long can they justify holding a depreciating asset while also being greatly or even greater debt themselves I dont understand how that is justified except via politics.


Does Bitcoin gain during a credit contraction.   In 2008 it was said Dollar would suffer but its value spiked quite heavily and that'd likely be inverse to Bitcoin then I think.    To see a rise in BTC I think we'd need to see USD index, DXY falling or continuing to fall.    Theres alot of uncertainty if that will happen but lower dollar also means higher oil price, USA does have alot more production now which is good but its also the largest consumer so higher pricing places a further burden on the economy.


I see the Bitcoin price wavering sideways after breaking out of a downtrend.   In terms of trending I think it needs to break out of a range to move especially short term.

Your link got mashed I think, just screencap it to imgur

USD already did the moon shot in 2008.   The events there were probably significant in the amount it required in order to spike USD in that way.    The demand for USD was massive and it came from across the world, the surprise in market decline was genuine.

Right now would people be as surprised and rushing to buy USD debt.  We already did that, the biggest holder remains Federal reserve from all their QE programs.    Its not just USA either, the ECB is still throwing the dice on the table for its QE gamble.  I'll post some source on that to go over because Im lost how lead ballons float tbh


I dont think the average Joe has money to place in the first place, real wages have fallen in value overall.  The value is coming from his pension scheme and that investment is being done without personal judgement of the beneficiary [how the little guy always loses].
  The largest holder of US treasury debt is recorded as pension funds operated by government at various levels, I think thats correct hence why some think its a safe situation and no sell off or rate spike is possible.

I dont think it takes alot of guts exactly, I know what you mean but like you say these can just be long term orders.    A lower price is a better deal for the buyer.   The only doubt is for those looking at the floor instead of the horizon.

I know this is true because the same exact fear/greed complex happens with stocks and commodities.   Markets move on this continual self interest and cycle of selling, BTC just happens to be especially volatile but also high growth.

How many times do we go to the supermarket and complain a product is 10% cheaper or more today.  We dont, we are sure we want that product.  To buy on a lower price, just requires confidence of the buy long term.  Speculators operating with borrowed money have the most fear, thats fair enough.   They definitely dont want the product just the price move.
All I need long term to like BTC is to observe USD has serious problems, a deficit etc  Its a declining situation, already QE has damaged its prospects internally and dollar is overvalued.    The other side is BTC growing, being developed and has a population able to benefit from usage, I believe so.  Gains should continue long term on balance between those two elements.    

How many people need to sell what they dont want before we reach a point buyers out number them; I dont know but if crypto population is growing then I'm positive on demand beating supply.

Low volume means low confirmation.   The pricing on that day matters less.  The market price will move to the latest trade or last trade done but the most important price is by volume.    All speculation on graphs is about probability, which is relevant but never definite

Common problem, optimism is profitable but also costs.

Might be a silly side note but guano or bird crap is a highly profitable commodity.  Fortunes have been made on such things and it is basically finite in high concentrations as its usually based around bird colony's which takes maybe hundreds of years to accumulate.    Other types useful for agriculture you can mine from the ground would be potash which is a big deal in Canada, it probably is very much finite and a historic accumulation.   Since we have definitely have world population growth with greater agriculture needs as more populations progress to meat eating its definitely a bullish market.
But people wont invest in that scenario, all they see is crap.  No optimism is a fail.

Failure to invest correctly in required markets for the future is also a function of a biased market.    If the government puts a subsidy under housing for example it means other areas are neglected despite being more productive long term, society as a whole becomes poorer while we chase our own tails.  
 Biggest example I can think of right now of this would be Venezuela, investment they do require for oil refinement of their gigantic but 'dirty' sulphur heavy oil is lacking.  Epic central government and political dictates means efficiency failure caused their business to fail and this country has the worlds largest known oil reserves.    They could be as rich as Norway if able to utilise the locked away wealth.
  The people starve for the elite, its so sad.   I think this effect is true at least in part in every country, luckily we retain democracy in most places.

7725 to beat nearterm as a positive marker.   7537 support, 7814 target upside

I dont think he is off topic especially, it relates to dollar and world reserve currency.   A large part of that is related to oil sold globally in dollars even when its not in a transaction related or involving USA, thats part of what backs USD as continuing as world reserve currency.

If that trade did alter substantially it'd be a big tide change.  It doesnt have to be beneficial for gold or anything but presumably it lowers the worth of dollar if no longer used so much as a world reserve currency and likely it promotes alternates.   

I reckon all of that economic change does relate to BTC, its a globally traded currency and its very convenient over the alternatives.  So good its avoiding capital controls and upsetting various regimes.   I dont know if Satoshi ever mentioned any of this directly or even in passing, its a massive coincidence for BTC to appear around the events at that time though.


Has the price become affected by news of BTG under a double spend attack.  Its bad publicity, I know its not a problem for any good network but it just sounds bad and upsets the appetite of some newer players in a market possibly.

7900 is a long term trend, I presume even if bearish overall we confirm that area first

'Bull Trap' is too simple.   It should reach 7900 objective and then maybe it sells or not but it goes upto that level because thats a significant price point.   I think of it being magnetised, we have to confirm 7900 to be properly bearish but if it breaks up from there we are far more bullish.    Traders should bid it up to that point then take their profits because the doubtful part is more risky and harder to profit on

Closer to the truth is everyone makes mistakes, I prefer the Socratic approach if we are exchanging ancient Greek insults.  But you know what happened to him, cant win

Speaking of guild of thieves, here is article running through of what happens when people sacrifice personal liberty to serve 'the greater good'
"One of the world’s great oil producers obliterated by the sheer greed and incompetence of a ruling party hiding beneath a veneer of Socialist ideology."
https://twitter.com/cate_long/status/999795980819226624
https://twitter.com/AKurmanaev/status/995366617642127360


BTC price in my rough view is in a bit of a netherworld, beneath the ice.  It hit 7700 as a top which is less bullish then I hoped at 7900 but its not doing much beyond sideways.  So its forming up to make a greater move in future.
Going sideways after a regular downtrend is positive. 7537 to draw a line in the sand to watch I think is reasonable

Bitcoin isnt a reserve asset but its easily possible to argue against gold as the ultimate store of value also.  However gold has a track record of 5000 years or more which is hard to argue with.
On balance Bitcoin has to be rated as transactional, it is not the unchanging inert store of work done that gold represents.   Bitcoin is technology that certainly has to adapt and improve or it will be replaced.

Gold could suffer from the idea a meteor full of it suddenly becomes available.   Again it seems unlikely as we've had many thousands of years for this event of over supply to occur, meteor mining is possible in future but I dont see the market for gold is changing.  Hence its a reserve, where as BTC is very much a changing and dynamic market.   BTC is a growth market, a part of competitive capitalism and must provide increasing utility or suffer devaluation.

All of these views are altered by the irregular distortion of viewing the world through US treasury debt prices.   Gold or anything will appear to be rising greatly while dollar itself is sinking and failing to return value to holders and users in its circulation which is the entire world.
Its possible for prices to rise while value is falling and we may not realise for years this effect is occurring, markets are inaccurate and suppressed in any correction by new money continually produced.



I back any mention of Exter's triangle and I do think deleveraging follows this process.   We will eventually set on this path regardless of new money, they cannot undo this it will burn out like a bad clutch and fail.

Yep basically thats how becoming over balanced would work out.    I generally say 1% in gold helps alot, its heavy it counter balances alot :p  but most people over estimate their free capital.  By free I mean you have it to save for like ten years as capital not money before a bill comes due.

Some dont subscribe to the idea of capital allocation and balancing so thats really upto the individual.  Taking more risky routes could pay off but the point is to avoid the risk, also thats losing some of the gains quite possibly.



Why isnt that same person just as angry about bad accounting by central government.  The never ending monetary base expansion is self bias, since I dont operate in billions Im worse off from 'being outside'.    Do we all believe government can perfectly distribute this new money, of course it doesnt do so.

Heres a good link I saw that I think explains about how USD self funding works and inversely why Bitcoin is in demand as unbiased to a central point of failure (not that I think any system can be perfect not even gold )


https://twitter.com/WallSt_Dropout/status/981270850048577537

Almost anyone can buy a gram gold.  In many places its tax free, compared to the lost freedoms after ww2 we do have that going for us now.   Most dont realise gold is not especially expensive  (unless you also believe oil will be going down by half long term )  missing the above effect which is increasing as QE unravels.



BTC is wavering on the first rung of the ladder above the previous low, in April.     Not sure what to take from that except its likely forming a longer term move

Yah exactly, this isnt a hypothetical.   We're all quite young in terms of knowledge of various economies and monetary systems but it should be very well documented what happens when a cash standard falls apart.   It happened dozens of times even in modern history most recently the Russian rouble replaced prior Ruble at 1,000 to 1.  Everyone gets wiped out, the asset holders are the now famous billionaires hence many citizens resent the concept of 'democracy'   or capitalism.  It rarely occurs in a fair way, probably wont be fair in the West either when chaos ensues

well I think it relates strongly.  Crypto is an extremity very far from a normality still now, if you are in crypto you are on the cutting edge of some phenomena dismissed many times over.  What exactly is driving its usage, growth is a part of supply and demand behind order books to exchange pricing?
   Dollar was linked to gold within memory, its not a nonsense reference its an ongoing reference to value.  The Swiss currency till about 2000 had a direct exchangeable link, in theory alot of economies and national exchange systems had a relation to gold or at least trade in real goods.   Now we have an excess of debt and promises to pay a bond with a suppression of rates to that linked to political and military power.    

Its not really a bug to mention such possibles being a strong influence on Bitcoin.   If you purely trade 5 minute bars on a graph then sure its not really relevant but BTC often moves in quite large spikes like a richter graph, it relates to seismic moves not unrelated to dollar and generational changes in the world.   To me this isnt a conspiracy theory, its an under-discussed dynamic in all lives


Alan Greenspan - former FED Chair and fiscal bear on these issues -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qr-gdjTiG2M

Its not an outside opinion, I dont even like gold personally Im not that keen on that kind of thing, I love tech far more.    just those ideas are relevant pretty sure

Capitalism is not centralised, thats an important distinction I think does matter and references the disparity BTC has with the current global reserve system.   Politics should not overshadow free markets like it does currently, we dont live in a Royal charter economy anymore but many in business feel restricted from expansion.    Also very large government (50% GDP) hands a massive advantage to the largest of companies.   Economies of scale I think relates there, however the fastest growth required especially to rebound from recession comes from the very smallest of business enterprise.
   Real capitalism is an equal partner to democracy in its effects on a country if done properly but that leadership is not there currently seems to me.

 If crypto is somehow closer to capitalism then we'll appreciate in value or at least have a sound basis to increase population of participants further.   Capitalism is a system proven to work over hundreds of years vs the Federal system which is a century at most or 40 years since no ratio of backing to its activities


BTW dont directly quote someone who is highly likely to be on ignore lists, it means they appear to people who dont want to repeatedly be reading that.    Me, I dgaf about trolls


The political horseshoe I recognise there




Topside for a bearish outlook is about 8050 and support at about 6500 perhaps, broad estimates but price is doing very little for a while now.

BTC 7724 resistance to overcome, stuck to the ceiling like a fly at present  


Amazing footage, not seen it done that clearly before.   There is a hand held photo camera which can zoom in on the moon, maybe a few hundred to buy.   Theres a reflector left on the moon which returns a signal if you use the right type of light spectrum to shine at it.  As far as actual visible object, I guess they are too small and the flag would need to be lying flat and far larger.  So the angles are wrong.

The moon is quite boring afaik, its just similar composition to the earth except exposed horribly to the elements of all kinds from outer space.   Never heard anything special about moon dust brought back.
Did Mars drilling ever return new elements of any kind, I followed really only the initial landings 25 years ago.  Principally its been about engineering to me not so much physics discovery, but I know little :p

Anyway the main point I was going to mention is the sun dying off or cooling down is not a near term likely phenomena.  The far more probable event before that is a solar spike or storm that would be similar to an EMP nuclear blast on the earths atmosphere.
Hopefully its a low probability but its a million times more likely then a big fall in Sun activity.   This would at the extremes lead to the loss of electronics on earth, its not an unprecedented event, I'll just go find the wiki link for previous
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859


The difference from 1859 to now is obviously we rely on sensitive electronics.   The positive is that I think we could predict this storm in time to save or shield alot of the equipment ?     I think the whole thing is worth mentioning in terms of possibly globally changing events and related to finance and clearing systems.

^^ Well I'll jump in that one with a theory at least.   The last uptrend from a bottom came with momentum backed by 50ma on 4hr bars and we just regained that.  (it was overhead since we turned back down)  So I'll venture momentum is there so long as we stay above this 'thin blue line' at least long enough not to trip up like an awkward skipping rope fail.   
I write seeing its on the line and I could be disproved shortly after but it was fairly reliable previously.    200 DMA is still overhead and more reliable overall, flattening but not negative

Do the Bartman ?      This cartoon 'kid' is like 30 years old by now



Seriously what does this formation relate to, the transition from west/europe over to Asia and back again ?   Reminds me of a phase change on a transformer or something.


A trader told me BCH is bullish medium term apparently, set to do well.  I thought that was mostly previous due to the fork and speculation on that, any reason for more demand on it recently?

I'd expect a fakeout first, a last call for a sell, people give up.  Then you have the bottom and a rise, market usually tries to trick us many times


Gold is isolated from direct factors of economic growth but silver is an industrial metal so I agree they are not twins, its a weak relation

The Hunt Brothers had a giant counter to their plans, a strong and capable Federal reserve.   This is like the biggest most relevant point to knowing this history, compare Fed and Fiscal debt and perhaps trade balance to now.    In the 1980's the Fed raised rates to 15%

Thats a giant return for simply holding the debt of the country you live in and pay taxes to.   Its not a hard bet to just side with that, of course the FED got control.    Silver was not in use enough to be a challenger plus the Saudis do sell oil in dollars, thats a big backing plus everyone else.

So the situation now is the FED cannot ever raise rates this high.   The average term of debt owed over 20 trillion by government is just 4 years.   Raising rates this high would mean every cent spent in the white house budget would be interest payments.     Its an insolvent situation, same deal as you read with Greek or similar spikes.

What is going to happen this time is the debt is repaid with newly printed money.  The path of least resistance, I dont have to be anti government, anti anyone this is just the gravity of the situation, water rolls down hill and the economy is going to be shaped by the simple dynamic of too much debt and a weak Fed policy vs inflation.

Knowing history is great indicator to the future but various factors have developed further since then.    So far as I know people expect a strong Fed to control the situation just like previously but its impossible when there is a fiscal deficit and no possible surplus to repay debt.

Yep but modern manufacturing doesnt require alot of gold apparently, its become far less though I should look for a source.

Heres a couple of pie charts, showing how silver is almost like an oppisite in its industrial emphasis.   In a way its good to have solid uses but also it provides interference to the price when recession occurs




We're back above the MA blue line for BTC momentum, its flat but generally seems constructive with higher lows.   Sideways after a fall can surprise some by effectively being a positive I find, still hear people being negative when its not going down. 

Lots of barts.  Reversion to mean more then any breakout move seems to be the case still



Oh what basis is it broken, I thought Nash was about game theory in competitive markets which would include variation not the idea of perfection or declaring impossible absolutes

and yet Im not following Luke Dash on twitter, my mistake.   We should have an official list for twitter resource/news, the platform allows lists to be shared.  My own list is very loosely collected though and not double checked

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/De4nfriUYAAImnh.jpg
well luckily I dont take everything I read unquestioned so I dont have a problem with the random feed, clearly he has a method there somewhere.  I've heard quite a few denounce democracy on the basis of poor education and misdirection of the masses.  I think its probably the best system though its path might be ironic and failure is a natural process within that.




Drawing in a support line on the daily which I think relates to finding a bottom here.  Was the top early November and has had weight in previous action similarly I think

The hash rate scares me, all that money being poured into serving the network.     Im all for efficiency driven competition, the network has to stay cheap vs competitors to use so I dont want to see them with higher costs from big R&D on asic.   I guess it'll work itself out in some way
https://thecryptograph.net/sec-says-bitcoin-can-replace-sovereign-currencies-not-security-but-icos-are/

This seems massive news, taxing every single transaction and exchange of crypto is basically criminalising a population because normal people cant be paying accountants to do their books because they bought a bottle of shampoo with bitcoin.   Seems there is conflicting ideas and it cant be that people suffer from just doing normal things.

Roughly bullish action, 7720 as a short term cap and 7370 seems a good base.  yea I have 7720 already drawn in as a fib line, that'd make 8043 target upside initially

In really basic terms with a rising population of Bitcoin users the price is less relevant then the basic supply and demand.    More demand and declining supply so yea buy, double check you believe utility of BTC justifies the view of a rising population of users but if you do this advice is perfectly reasonable.

I think price on the exchange is seperate to other factors.  We had VISA deny transactions for many hours across its network nationally the other day, a major failure.   All those people stranded on toll roads and petrol stations without money did have mobile phones, an ideal situation for a crypto transfer; highlighting the benefits to alternate global networks.    We still big questions and upsets in global politics ongoing that relates to USD remaining a global reserve, allowing other competitors to likely appreciate.    A possible repeat of the 1930's trade war/tariffs that likely caused the great recession, that could be a really bad trigger.  Where as Bitcoin is not political currency.  Bitcoin transcends various regimes and their self bias.
  
However none of the long term means we have to rise here particularly but I think to average into a price is fine.    Its a general investment strategy.    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp

I wish I had done this in Intel for example.  I do own some at a good price, but I should have bought into growth and now be averaging out as its a very high price now.    BTC has growth similarly

In commodities 10% I rate as a very possible move, I dont know its correct place but thats where I place BTC in volatility for comparison.    So the way oil can spike on changes, big politics and all that, it seems to fit the background to what might drive BTC also.  
Oil is going up btw because Venezuela and couple other places are underperforming (greatly).   Yea OPEC restricted production some but these other factors have been a tail wind that helped oil higher rather then opposed which was very possible.  Iraq for example has production and reserves could in theory out size Saudi Arabia, long term oil should not spike but of course dollar is weak.   Theres always story behind price movements, unintentional usually.
When Venezuela falls over, its probably a sell for oil longs only then


Whales dont determine the market despite their size.  If BTC is all about the largest elements being the most important factor then Im in the wrong place anyway and I dont expect crypto to amount to much in that case.   Capitalism itself is capital and production with the people, not top down evil Megacorp like most people think how capitalism must be a negative.  Thats all we know within this generation or so but a correct economy would be from bottom up.   Even now you shouldn't have to go far to find that the fastest growth will always come from the smallest participants in a market, people, small enterprise and so on.  

It really is not about the whales, I hope BTC reflects that and is better engaged with capitalism then dollar and the fractional reserve global system of value it has become.   If it BTC is a better match it will rise, all this price dancing about is not a determiner and the largest whale on an exchange is just a side show to a far larger global picture of trade and growth from people not government spending/debt

On an imgur link, if you add g just before the .jpg then it posts the smaller resized version.  Thats a default option, so  graphg.jpg   would be smaller then graph.jpg the original
Or can just post the link itself of course.

https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FDfYDvEAU8AAYmmA.jpg&t=589&c=7yVC--rznvWk4A

With this one, a price can cross trend line but it must close below to have greater significance.   Dont know if thats the case there but its not been a full day yet.  

I already had it below a trend from this time last year (the diagonal line on the graph) but I also expected better confirmation of that break.  So close below and then find previous trend as a ceiling

Surprisingly bullish  (relatively) view by stock trader on BTC, just watching their live facebook talk



They dont see this as fatalistic or 'done and dusted' move.    Roughly described as an indecisive area until we lose 6400 to confirm a break.   I'll have to watch this back and revise exactly how they intend that interpretation but I agree in general terms the move is still arrested not really moving like I'd expect a genuine break


China has the 'problem' of rising wages, Vietnam now undercuts China for general labour costs.   I imagine you will find some very cheap opportunities in Vietnam however its most definitely communist and not a good currency base.   I hear they buy houses by agreeing a price in gold bars, who knows they might take BTC could be ideal

I know someone who won 200k and was back in a work a week or so later.   Its not much in consideration of lifetime bills.    Going down to 10k means you really dont have anything so your room to flip it back up is limited, you have to be paying those bills asap which means little time for anything exotic.

On the other hand going to 1 mill still leaves alot of options.  Some might say this even is not alot in that lifetime perspective and sure maybe but it leaves enough leeway to swing your fortunes back up again.  You can in theory trim down your costs and possibly get a plan together in whatever your expertise is and get back to the 10mil level perhaps.  You got a shot and the space to do so.  

10k on the other hand is going to require some magic and almost zero costs not to be burning it very quickly.  Your back in rat race for sure, on the treadmill.   Seems a bigger relative loss to me.   Buffet said he can double the first million far more easily then he can progress that later 10 mil into double again or the larger sizes.   After a certain point your footprint is too big I guess, I think a 1 mil float is the sweet spot maybe people at that level go up and back down alot.



Heres a short term test, the previous floor as a ceiling.   There should be bigger levels then just this super focused view.    People appear to think the price should go down but seems too simple to me, anytime people expect it or are consigned to that possibility the market usually defys expectations.     Still looking for a bigger test upwards to try and fail first.  Seems a bit drab and just too tired a move to go big.

Is the surprise to the upside and the china positive news more then just a rumour.   Possible I just dont know the weight of probability

The volume seems to confirm we are flat to still in momentum.   Sure we have peak on that which in the autumn was bullish but now the volume has generally shown a drop since Feb.    Stagnation more then triggering anything significant from that point, like capitulation should be.

I've been too negative in my outlook a few times in the past.   News happening elsewhere in the globe is just as important then anything Im aware of.  Just looks very still to me.

If I draw in a downtrend just for speculation, its lying outside that and could confirm that as a base to rise from.  

haha true enough, very bullish.   The problem I struggle with here is I only really speak one language, maybe I can ask a few friends to read similarly elsewhere but really I cant tell the world wide sentiment.   That would be an important factor to report if anyone is connected better globally, I think there is too much of an echo chamber effect.   

People repeat what others says without fully or even in any way verifying if its true or with serious grounds.   If every single buyer and seller verified a rumour I guess we'd move alot slower in price then we do.   
I personally just hope the overall population grows, we dont rely on big leverage players on an exchange.   Growth is a ton more genuine when its just some poor person who genuinely thinks BTC is useful and holds a bit, but that person matters because there is a million of them.
Ideally that poor person is getting richer (in a developing country with 10% growth) and BTC is helping them reduce their banking costs, a reciprocally relationship that grows and justifies Bitcoin would be ideal. 

The smartest bet of all, I will bet 13 btc on it not going to zero.    I think I'm hedged on that one, at some point I'm perfectly right either way :p

All kidding aside, I think BTC markets do love to slide to both extremes and of course the whales or however you view exchange volume they want the bigger splash not the indifferent hesitation of a price doing little in either direction which is more risky over time to take part in then catching a wave up or down.

If you want a distraction, I would look at US dollar.   With US treasury bond rate yields rising, it should put the pressure on lots of alternative holdings.   USD has seen some strength recently, I dont know if the NPK agreement today was helping in forming a positive trend to dollar.  Ultimately I think it declines but short term it appears stronger, the peak actually being in early 2017 in anticipation with the reality being deficit spending, weakness, etc.


I dont really rate costs as a determiner of prices, that would apply if we had a relationship of production falling off or increasing on higher prices. BTC doesnt operate like that, like a mined metal would hence bigger spikes up and more volatility then many markets

They state transactions not revenue so BCH is 859 dollars each and a doge is one fifth of a cent each.     So triple the transactions would not seem much when its likely far less revenue in value terms, less significance.   If thats what they meant by the graph

vs

39x the revenue in BCH favour.   This is why people dont trust graphs and statistics I guess.    Maybe their point was people, not value so doge is more widely used but I cant tell that


6639 to beat for btc and 6200 base is my rough view

The BIS report is nothing new, BTC asic uses energy and they say all value can be compromised easily.  Where as FIAT is tied to national trade and so far superior.    Just seems like a biased view, not especially insightful

The cash app has a license in NYC, big area but not massive news yet either.

The graph view is more interesting and possibly more bullish should we keep improving, confirm above this level


https://i.imgur.com/d1iIfCI.png

I didnt realise big blocks meant more of a tendency to centralisation, otherwise I agree the argument for expansion parallel to tech advance would be a reasonable one.  Its interesting how each side is seeing the best path forward, I prefer the more diverse less central route if possible as I think that will weather best.

https://youtu.be/JzIKIodumpg?t=1921  

Grant's interest rate observer on the reasoning for Bitcoin and how it was always wanted.   In the 90s I remember people talking about how micro-transactions, ecash was a requirement for the internet to advance.   Google ads helped created an online economy or similar avenues but its still true its needed



Could be, I see the uptrend on the lows there.   I dont see the downtrend exactly or what would be a boundary upwards exactly
6528 was beat, thats support hopefully and 7369 range to 7724 as a target is reasonable seems like.   Also 6846 as a line we met early June before losing 6528

I probably didnt even manage that much.   Just putting a stick in the sand trying to guess which way the tide is going, at least if I can observe it beating a negative point or ceiling then thats some strength.



Generally we're in a positive phase I think, so I'd say upwards til we negate certain measures like the blue line MA   
On June 14th the price we're sitting above was a bit a ceiling, it declined from that point but we beat it with a good bigger bar on 18th June and now confirming it as some base to rise from. 
I dont see we are in a strong trend currently, bit indecisive dealing with sellers and swapping back and forth I guess.   up or down then :p

smaller bars, what happened to Bart btw

So its a dramatic breakdown from the point we hoped would be bullish.    I guess it was a significant point to watch, trigger from to a few different packs of people trading round the world

The price now is just generally on weekly bars, the novemeber low and october highs so justified again as significant.  I think the situation again needs to develop to be sure what way it'll go but standard view would to see it as support and building from there.

Well I checked the chart for how it'd look but of course I forget Venezuela has capital controls and the exchange is only officially sanctioned.    The data doesnt show for the real black market worth of a currency with 50% inflation every month, it shows for the propaganda government figure.

So the BTC VEF graph shows Bitcoin in decline compared to the outstanding government Bolivar supported rate.    If BTC had a government we would never show a loss, because we lock up anyone who disagreed.  Genius but people are starving in that country so I presume theres a flaw if you arent part of government top end.   



Not sure on demand but in Japan they have made the main exchange check KYC on anyone who uses crypto.   Thats a major restraint for ease of use and Japan is also a country with a declining currency for the small people maybe the most in need of a simple alternative.


I'm buying alts or tokens which give a yield.    If its cheap and its going to be used, way cheaper then the 'ICO' was and the original utility is still there then it could be worth a buy.   Pure speculation on possible maybes is going to just orbit around bitcoin price itself.   Its possible for a few things to decouple and work off their actual use, there are cases out there. 


6500 is a bullish test I think, in line with previous highs.   A strong rise from there could occur if sentiment turns, quite a few are negative still

https://www.facebook.com/NicTrades/?hc_location=ufi

Trader talking through crypto, graphing theory and Bitcoin direction.    I have followed them a long time so count the commentary as genuine.  My bias would be I tend to agree with estimates or chart theory used, 6500 significance and 6800 confirmed breakout is what they just said so I concur with that in my pleb view :p


Yep thats pretty much the case and important to note, it will influence all of our lives in future decades.    Boring thing is day by day the public dont notice that we live in increasing absence of capitalism.

As far as retiring and everyone saving for a pension I do think saving a gold coin every year of work is sensible store for sitting back and spending savings instead of accumulating.  The big deal is QE is tied to pension funds, its sad to take advantage of those people but they have no choice.    Even private pensions are in theory in very close orbit to government measures and I would not exclude the extreme polar ends of inflation and deflation and how it can make us poorer.    Obviously gold is just metal, its one mention in a store of value in a long list hopefully

  The front running way modern government finances itself via debt, the users, holders of FIAT end up paying a kind of tax on capital not even just income

The only two significant points of volume recently came with green bars.  Seems neutral to positive until we reach that overhead negative trend perhaps





Ironic positives are possible but I see the underlying change as China realising this old guy DGAF and is as dangerous as the younger guy who dont DGAF and is likely not playing the same old game they've run for decades.  Hence China, the real power in the balance side swiped Kim Jung with the knowledge he is going to lose any backing unless he stops killing off foreigners and stick to his national dictatorship.   Rather then launch that next missile, combined with the fact they probably destroyed part of the launchpad he opts to take the money on the table for playing nice.
In ten years he will just repeat the same crap in exchange for more nice stuff coming his way.    He isnt about to make any kind of peace like Gaddafi made the mistake of doing and China probably doesnt want him to do because he is their poodle in any forthcoming battle over the 'south China sea'

Despite the name most of that sea belongs to other countries hence a likely heavy conflict is probable more then anything specially to do with the Korean peninsula

Halvening is a long way off and even then it's effects are gradual not immediate.    The lead upto it might be hyped, the anticipation being bullish but I'd hope theres more near term positives then a simple known algorithm function.   People and expansion of peoples use for crypto should be a positive that is not yet known


well no, not on the face of it.  A bubble pop is like happened with Madoff, a sudden deflation beyond any possible trade, hedge or compensating action.   I think we'd need to discover another grade of decline to be describing the dynamic, not flipping to a misfitting extreme scenario.     Theres no pop because it doesnt relate in that way, I just think overall post peak is a reaction to some restriction of leverage.   There was a lead up to the futures trading, buy the rumour sell the news is a normal occurrence in many asset classes


The first rise encountered less sellers, everyone was in a gain at that point.   Right now we have certain sellers.   People always over invest money they cant actually forget about and need back and in a super bullish trend like Bitcoin had, that effect is amplified so now there is volume overhead.  A series of trenches to negotiate not a clear field.   I do think a price rise after markets confirm a bottom would be more confident rising then is now but its certain there is some sellers ready also so demand growth is necessary to be bullish.



This is extremely orderly, Bitcoin Richter scale volatility not so apparent nowadays

Does newbie mean second account in this case, I gave merit because it seemed the wrong label for a well structured post

I agree it shouldnt be a big deal but also some will say well the standard is failing if it cant all be decentralised.    I would prefer the really small change stuff is done via flexible exchange rates to tiny alt coins.   If it works, great for them and they can handle the transaction cost and processing integrity and if not the exchange rate falling vs Bitcoin will minimise any losses spreading.
    But I worry about centralised processing of Bitcoin within this main blockchain could somehow develop into a negative distortion of value even if its tiny bits I see them as the most genuine commerce to come from the smallest movements of value and by the most diverse population.  


Seems sensible and I would like if all coins were more often distributed between users.   I'm sure thats most of where BTC price strength should come from, monetary velocity between users with varied interests, many nationalities but a commonly traded currency.  



So great efficiency improvements are a requirement if that is the case

Leveraged trading is the entire rise would be surprising.   It doesnt take alot more demand to create a price rise when supply is quite fixed.   They'd need to be continually expanding their credit position, this is a natural effect occurring in USD but Im not sure BTC is benefiting from QE unwinding especially.   Most of the benefits goto primary dealers in US treasuries and Goldman is one and also a dealer in crypto so its possible a transfer between the two markets is there I guess.   I dont reckon Bitfinex can cause this by themselves without alot of help from their bank manager and/or fraud.   Do you mean they are painting the tape, thats a feature of some Chinese exchanges if any are left.



Theres plenty of doom just reading stated facts I think, just at present they are not come to full fruition but factors are in play enough for a Greek style scare and retraction in market confidence likely to knock BTC I guess.    With US 10 year yields being high, I guess it can be bought in safe haven thinking.  Meaning retraction in other pricing (everything denominated in USD)




The previous estimate I was given is 6500 as a bullish target with 6800 confirmation of a break in negative trend.  I generally agree with that and I'll add in I think we are in positive phase so long as we stay above 6127 and that also would be the recent price of the last top before falling some.    Highs now are the underside of the early April bottom, so theres some significance there

How are Italy not qualified is the very strange thing but Iceland are, what is the world coming to :p   Is this PC equal opportunities or are Iceland the size of a city literally modern day vikings of football  

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/nov/16/world-cup-2018-fans-holland-italy-ireland





Triple bottom on Platinum, must be a sign.    Always pays to diversify imo.  I dont believe platinum would ever be monetised for classical reasons, its industrial and also its distribution is not even around the world which makes it unsuitable longer term though it should still rise vs dollar depreciation.  Platinum will be worth more ten years from now then dollar or the dollar bonds in value terms.

 BTC break about the 6500 area is a nice change from disappointing weakness.      6800 is the area I was told will prove important regarding the May 1st declining trend and also I would call 7340 for it to rest some should Bitcoin regain its legs and go for a bit of a run

I see a new daily bar above prior resistance or the April low however you see it.  Probably helps some, bullish.   Would a smart trader here presume volatility or doubt and set a buy to 6523 for a move to confirmation before much further rise, I will check in views of various traders on this move



Do I think that ?   no, I'm just observing and a very general opinion is all the precious metals will react to unstable global currency.  That does appear to a reasonable long term forecast, instability could also mean really poor finance ability for mines many of which fall short on funding even large billion dollar operations I see stumble.  

Platinum when I say industrial to me that means it'll be very hard to predict, its tied into Car production and demand.  To some extent its also about technology, the petrol vs diesel vs electric fight going on.  It can also be held as a monetary asset but no I wouldnt place it next to gold.  The ratio between gold vs silver is often analysed as an indicator, then also Gold vs platnium means something too.  Gold vs oil is a massive one as the majority of mining operations are energy intensive and oil is related to global growth.   Heres a good website on this kind of interpretation: http://pricedingold.com/
also stockcharts.com will allow graphing of ratios.  Dow priced in gold etc.  Some say it'll go 1:1  

Good point but I really dont think it will reverse order to that extent.  The follow up to USD reverse system based off political debt will be another form of FIAT currency operated by the IMF which is called SDR and the IMF does have some gold but this wont be formally linked either or even close to informally backed by reserves.   Politics will keep on operating or attempting to exert control of populations income and capital.

IMF also said they might operate an online version, the dollar is currently digital imo anyway so I dont see thats anything special really.

Anyway my point is I think it'll always be a mix of national currencies and possibly we see a rise in precious metals and also crypto is used more as well especially for fast transactions.  It wont be a great big switch on of crypto imo, they'll be competition between them all and upsets as one sector tries to undermine the others perhaps.


I think Australian dollar could rise alot, giant natural reserves not formally but just because their country is massive and they have few people and afaik not that much debt.   Any rise in commodities and trade relating world currency would favour such an economy.   I guess also Canada similarly but they have more debt, ties to this old system.    Ive never thought crypto will rise singularly.



My own personal take was the protocol for bitcoin even though its open source was designed and initially constructed by a group of people or at least keys were split up and shared to various wallets such that no one person had sole control.   Thats how I explain why the coins were never moved.   They had more invested in the success of their work then simply taking out the value which would have undermined it, splitting responsibility would be standard practise in software engineering procedure I think.      

Its natural for the public to attribute success or the image of a new dynamic product to just one person like how Steve Jobs was Apple or whatever.   Sure important key people but I wouldnt presume it was just 1 person who decided its fate alone, Apple fired Steve Jobs if I remember right and I just think this Satoshi name thing is just like a reference or code name for the operation more then literally his inventors name or nickname even.  Could have been a women of course, the best cover.  I dont know if anyone has gone through each post and communique under his name and checked its duplicate in style.

Its not a one off, seems to be a fair regular trend for the moment.    It was looking slightly negative but its doing what I call stair stepping higher, where even if its jagged its going to higher lows.  I guess thats bullish then, still got people talking gloomy and/or doubtful so thats a positive also


Yea that seems quite important in not allowing a ceiling to form or set like cement.  We are taking a new high in this modest turn to the positive.    Baby steps or whatever is fine by me, it seems the wrong timing to be negative now even if a bear.

I'll risk a jinx and say in a positive phase and MA at 6,300 as a measure of that positive action.  Highest bars on the green close, OBV doesnt seem to have it especially bullish but I dont take that as gospel

8500 would be a break of the medium term bearish trend.   That'd be enough for people to be bullish I think, quite significant.   

The standard moving average would be 50 day and 200 day.    Bitcoin isnt a stock so I'm not sure about a golden rule but some investment operations would only examine stocks trading over a 200 day average, apparently its a requirement for some and since everyone else in the market is smaller then billion dollar investment trusts we tend to follow in their wake.   
For Bitcoin I do not know if we should look that strictly at MA, its just a measure of momentum I think.

Theres nothing bullish in MA for daily long term that I see.  I think we are all speculating on a turn around situation which is harder.   The trusts trade certainities and market right could yield nice gains upwards but also its risky.   So I was tracking 4hr 50MA as a loose fit to positive movement since April thats just a weekly measure, about 8 DMA.



So yea that marked the bottom pricing recently, we could still call this positive but I would describe this as looking like a stepladder fallen over.   Its a bit stalled, no longer in the channel I drew in.

Someone called out 6800 as the tide mark or resistance a while back, its basically held that line for now.    I'm not certain on calling it as accumulating to move upwards or not

An optimistic realistic quote I read somewhere, market really will build on the annual view not the exchange swings and pops.

My daily view at least in a focused way has it on the line, teetering :p




Communism has its downsides for sure, the problem is confused but it effects us all due to the size of China with well over a billion and our reliance on their exporting.    The empty buildings used as tokens for land speculation might be ok if eventually it will be useful.  However China has demographic problems, the working population is dropping.  
   The country is still developing but this kind of empty growth could end up with them poorer over ten years imo, like alot of the world.  I've heard Chinese debt described as worse then any other  (worthless base worth though land is always worth something).   Jim Chanos is the guy to read on that I think, he is famous for calling out Enron if you remember that fraud scandal

http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2018/04/11/markets-now-jim-chanos-china.cnnmoney/index.html

However I think China is ahead of Japan in demographics and the debt isnt as far gone as Japanese decades of QE either.   Also they understand enough to accumulate gold in giant amounts, China is the world largest producer of gold and exports none of it and also imports and increasingly controls production outside the country also.  They seem to have some plan of sorts, not sure what as they arent capitalist and lock themselves to dollar devaluation.

I remember these from years back but the all aluminium engine Ive not heard of before.  Is that an asset for the older car, I've no idea how people decide whats going to be popular.  On another forum I know someone got a F40 in the last market crash, its price appreciation since equals its acceleration.   If it was me I'd want to buy a De Tomaso  apparently is easy to work on

The funny thing there is a classic cars are often tax free in terms of an asset appreciation or capital gains tax.   Im not sure about fine art and other things, there might be a few assets which are actually quite clever to hold for their long term value or at least ability to hold value over time.    If you happen to also love the car or whatever asset then its a bonus.   This is easily arguable in terms of diversification, so long as you believe the price is not inflated wrongly for some reason its personal judgement on that one.


Also I post because I saw very similar article just recently - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-09/vintage-porsches-683-gain-fuels-returns-in-carmakers-homeland


Also would help to know a good mechanic.   In terms of the Lambo meme, generally people refer to new cars which often is a heavily depreciating asset.   Not always it depends on production vs demand but usually not a good idea, imo kinda pointless unless you also have the race track




Judging by a ratio could be of some use.   I think they are arguing the total market cap is overvalued if considering an average ratio vs transaction value done since 2010

Yea seashells of a special kind were used for hundreds of years apparently.   I dont know the full positives & negatives to that but it worked well enough to convey value over wide areas and trading apparently.  Jim Rickards mentions this and a few other standards while still criticising Bitcoin he acknowledges it is money.

I do think this very simple view of bitcoin via a picture (3D model format even?) is really important for mass adoption, not the QR code or the super long address.   Even the phrase mnemonics is not really it, people need a handle to be more comfortable with Bitcoin.   That'd be a game changer, slightly over looked or undervalued in the effect it would have to common use.


Bitcoin price accumulating it seems, its back into a positive phase now I think.  I wonder if that could be a very lazy way to trade it, just buy when its above a 7 day average or so and sell before it loses that momentum.   Not sure but would make a good virtual trade to try out.   We all know Bitcoin when it runs is extremely capable of gains so just hoping onto that positive move is probably quite smart for those of limited means especially who cant just hold and forget.
I'll give credit to nictrades here from twitter for underlining a while now that Bitcoin had broken a negative trend.    However markets still thinking about it imo, has to go above 6800 so not exactly vibrant action imo either


Its done that way on purpose, its a form of tax effectively.   The difference in value generally credits in the governments favour who issue that currency without cost, restraint or any redress from the population using it which is the entire world.      
1% PA lost over the course of your working life, results in a 40% loss of value roughly [0.99^50].    If you saved your pension in cash you'd be a poor man

I'll argue against this just because I think it leads people to the conclusion capitalism is evil.   Capitalism wants to produce as many guns as possible because its profitable and they want to sell them widely as possible, maybe creating power imbalances.

I'd say its not the companies competing for business which is creating the imbalance with this buildup of ammunition and war technology.  I think it goes back to the governments and their noncompetitive control of economies and spending of GDP within that nation.
I've owned a few defence related shares before (anyone with a company pension probably does) and most of their business revolves around gaining the confidence of large government spending  budgets.   Thats make or break for them to get a cut of that pie that only a centralised government has the power to hand out.

The population of Saudi Arabia given a choice to spend their own money would be looking for aircon technology far more then weapons.   Defence is an easy argument but setting a war with neighbouring or even distance countries is more likely the powerplay of politics and doing so while spending money which is not their own.  The War is destructive and on a very personal level there is little gained from violence, most people feel this way imo.    Government which has no interest in making a profit is most interested in war which results in no gain for the participants, the basic logic that war is loss goes way back and it definetly seems true in the nuclear era.

I'd go with what Ron Paul says on this subject probably, I think as he saw both sides of the war, spending and funding by government of the military business sector.

I'm a massive fan of simplicity tbh, the smallest thing in iteration can lead to great things.  The answer is far more likely to be correct when it doesnt require a long justification and explanation.   But its no good forcing either side, most of us dont have perfect clarity it takes time I guess

Quite funny there the definition is almost contradictory 

Sorry for commentating again so often but the Europe is socialism theme has been said for decades and EU keeps on going anyhow.    Its not really tending towards extremes quite that much, the politics certainly appears that way but overall the countrys are mixed in their purpose and aims.   Germany is one of the worlds greatest exporters for example, any interference with control of that industry operation would not likely be tolerated and lead them into an obvious loss.   So long as they retain the ideas of democracy I would not fear Europe will become this negative or extreme any time soon, I dont see this as a trend increasing is my point. 

The biggest warning of a socialist move imo would be in the interaction between banking debt, government debt and the ECB.   Done correctly the debt is bad and some defaults should occur, this reorder is necessary.   If that common order is disrupted, it favours unrest and possibly this idea of seizing assets to favour the common good.  That path leads to ruin as Venezuela has shown most recently.   If all these governments' budgets were in surplus I would not think this possible at all


https://i.imgur.com/xwjwc4c.png
Quite an obvious barrier upwards, 6800 as mentioned a few times.    Indicators are neutral seems like and 50 day moving average flat.   This is just the April low, on balance nothing especially bullish required to challenge this area rather then retract as if it were a solid ceiling.   I would guess we surpass it and in doing so there is a bit of a rush upwards, 7400 to 7700 being the most obvious target which is a previous channel trend and a previous ceiling.   I dont think it would go past that without selling, consolidation.

This recent higher daily low area was quite good reason to be positive now I think



I'd agree in plain numbers but for a nation, its people are its most valuable asset and the best source of growth possible.   People are exponential in their capacity for productive gain, to not favour the good health of your nation as much as possible could be considered the worst form of malinvestment.

Saying that, only basic health care in line with advances over decades is that feasible.  Cutting edge, high cost health care should probably always be private.

You can move to a US unincorporated territory (not state), you wont be able to vote while resident there but can remain a citizen and not pay federal income taxes.   Afaik USA is the only country to want citizens living and earning money in another sovereign nation and yet you must pay income taxes to the USA anyway or forfeit your passport and pay an exit fee.


The current highs are in line with the start of July as a trend, it failed then and now forms some resistance but I think 7700 is more likely to be found as a proper top or ceiling to navigate which was march lows and June top pricing.

Unless this was that important to impact pricing

Lager > beer

Its not working unless they can avoid the problems of gravity and/or have acquired infinite energy.   IF they solve the energy cost problem then the whole world economy is going to be reordered in some way anyhow.
They'd need to bring the meteor down to earth, I dont think its impossible but improbable and yea gold utility is not high.  Its not a growth industry just an inverse of other factors, probably mostly relating to volatility, instability.   Every currency type is a store of wealth or excess profit, its not especially negative to call gold out in that way.

Dollar notes rot go mouldy when buried, Escobar had this problem when trying to store wealth, gold wins on most comparisons and the price comes after but its no failure of a product.  His greatest legacy is a set of hippos left in his country estate.  

Gold in the 1980's was still expensive, in relative price terms it was more expensive in 80's then it is now after all the destruction to dollar value somehow.   But gold spiked when rates were 15%   which is quite ironic and still now people dont get that gold will rise fastest also when rates are rising (but lagging inflation hence actually negative).  Its because the situation is slipping in some way and gold is an easy self adjusting measure unreliant on any artificial demand  (long term)

Escobar wasnt smart, he was just a crook and terrorist.   He should have invested in many alternatives but he stacked it high I guess.   All the same the USD bond appreciation or reduction in rates happened from that point, the smart buy is recognising that trend I guess.    
So price is inverse to rates:

^TNX



\
This is what I was thinking the other day, BTC ascended in 2017 when Dollar declined quite alot from a peak.   Start '17 was a bullish sentiment high for Dollar, 'it can only go up' moment if you get what I mean for that crowd effect.   Dollar fell its most for decades in the start of this year on other hand.   Its come back but still there is doubts.   Right now CNY is falling on this idea of sanctions but imo its the market miscomprehending, USD is benefiting for now.
I think Bitcoin relative to that Dollar doing better in 2018 vs 2017 fall, will not have the tailwind to help gains that it did have in 2017.  So BTC is more challenged, it does seem to relate somehow to this global usage of dollar as BTC is very much internationally useful in its mobility.



Short term I would say BTC looks to be acting bullish and continually trying to challenge resistance above.   Ignoring other views it could just be taken as acting above this support as a base for moves upwards

Its not really that, I think its hitting its head on the ceiling which to me is a more positive image.   Yes that hurts some  but also its actually trying to ascend seems like but needs to surpass this trend.    I actually think the 7700 is the real line in the sand, this trendline was just short term channel


https://i.imgur.com/mw5CMMC.png

Here is how I view action, capped upwards.   That series of higher highs does not especially suggest negative action.   I dont know about weekend varying to week day exactly, I guess its less volume.
Orders to sell or short at 7700 would seem likely, old orders even but thats just sidebets

Great info on the ETF process, that guy sounds like a real asset to everyone in crypto.  Though I guess this was already obvious to some, he explains it well



So maybe its more viable being based on futures which has its own regulation and I think increases margin requirements based on volatility.  I've held ETF based on futures before, because really holding a warehouse of corn or whatever even for investment companies is not viable so thats a normal avenue.  However I was also told it was a product for advanced investors only and I was restricted from basic access to Futures based ETF which could be how BTC ETF is labelled.


I would expect them to just deny it early if anything but its normal for them to use all time up apparently.



8594 is the 200 day moving average overhead, I didnt realise we had come so close to it now.  50 DMA is rising and also short term we are in an ascending channel.   I guess the market will recognise and pay most attention the 200 DMA and we'll react to the price.   Passing it would be very bullish but I dont think we'll do that at first glance, however we are more positive now then I had thought would be the case



https://i.imgur.com/0XBB3VB.jpg
https://twitter.com/gaborgurbacs

People say things like this for gold or silver or any commodity (lithium? whatever) but the main problem is the price moves like that because of its measurement in Euros or dollars often.   Gold will goto $10,000 per troy ounce but I've no idea how much it will buy at that point it may even be less then now though imo Im bullish on a variety of alternatives to political currency.

   ECB has run out of bonds to buy for their Quantitative easing program, thats a horrifying extreme they have reached in monetary policy where they control entire markets as the sole determiner of value and price.   Its nothing close to capitalism then and we cant really rely on accurate pricing via Euro or Dollar long term.    It'd better to go on living costs, like the BigMac index if you ever heard of that one for the pricing globally of a standard burger and how that varies and every country has its variation with USA seeing the cheapest cost I think.   Over time I imagine the world changes to some other bias though USA does have growth, where as parts of Europe and Japan have negative demographics, falling working population and China has this problem also after halting their family sizes to 1 child for almost 40 years which certainly strains natural growth.



Bitcoin pricing remains bullish, within a channel upwards.   Target is roughly 8400 but as every low and pullback is higher priced then the last its not seemingly negative at all right now

I thought that was the whole deal with the futures based ETF that it could have a better chance then this winklevoss ETF which is old news by now.   I'm not sure just that decision is an impact on the market exactly.

Its out of the channel at the moment though and taking a negative view but still within a bullish move I think 7725 would be the target downside for it being significant news to produce some selling.   It should already be anticipated and not significant imo but its a measure of strength also


Maybe its major in potential and he is declaring the fact it even took place as the first footstep, hence major but yea it has to be a regular event and useful to those companies as a tool.  Then its Major    Any idea BTC could be within the range of traffic conducted by commerce daily is fairly big if it were to happen.   However its got a long way to go as the SEC says, still small on the world stage

If she is a bit of a hotty its common interest, same deal as last time.   Add in the whole gun debate thing and its probably a hot topic


Gold has been used as sovereign money in living memory, it was used indirectly by most of the planet.   The Swiss used it even more recently then that and in response to their banks printing in line with ECB they had a vote to go back on the gold standard.   Its quite feasible gold will return as a sovereign currency somewhere, it shouldnt be listed as LOW then.

Even if not used in fixed standard, its been true for years now that central banks are buying in net.   Its pretty much the largest reason for a person to hold some themselves, this rising prospect of gold as a monetary reserve asset is quite realistic.  China I believe is avoiding spiking the price (buying up defunct mines with remaining reserves at the lower price is a smart move, same thing happens with coal or oil when the price moves that resource is viable again )but seems to realise its a requirement to balance their US treasury holdings.

Gold is used but only when required, rocket ships and supercars perhaps.  Its used very sparingly on computer circuits still, the really old computers used far more but technology used to cost alot more then now.
Most gold used is kept for luxury type spending, jewellery and in India its a form of exchanged reserve wealth in effect.  So thats 2 nations with over a billion people who consider it an asset, its obviously not being used now and Bitcoin is alot easier, quicker especially with tiny trades but Gold is more then viable it could become valued for that purpose of global trade/ reserve financial asset.

It would be 'Major' news if gold were used in a long term contract but to me that makes alot more sense then problems with LIBOR fixes in contracts.  LIBOR is actually being phased out, a recent story mentioned how new contracts were relying on something that wont even exist during the term of that contract hence a certain failure is being ignored currently.    The world like the tides is changing regardless of what people want, gold probably is going to be used for its property of being fixed inert and thats more probable the greater the change and volatility from long term alterations to major standards, like LIBOR or any other agreement.


BTC price is very close to the 7724 target downside and then may react from there.  Winklewoss bros must be a charismatic headline I guess, they are the next Facebook thats why they dont give up.  Or thats the story, we probably shouldnt want them to but I prefer stories on innovation and real usage

This doesnt rely on any national or political  policy exactly, Muslims have more children then the previous aging 'baby boomer' generations have had.   China doesnt have enough children, that demographic and economy will experience forced change and it dont matter they are communist or not they will have a lower working population.  Japan has great demographic failure, little growth is possible nationally and at present they export their labour requirements as a solution
Most of Europe has a birthrate below the existing population, France will switch over to a Muslim majority population at some point.   This is a self decided policy by every family, politics may have some influence but really its a free choice made.
I just see change is inevitable, nobodys opinion really can alter what is already in motion with such great inertia.  Demographics is the most reliable indicator because it cant be altered even by year, everything resulting now is from decades of change.   Part of the Bitcoin story goes back to the 1970's or earlier I think, we'd be below 1000 in different circumstances probably

Nobody knows what part will crash even, nobody knows anything much apparently  Its all guesswork, I'm fairly sure this is the doctrine of the FED tbh  Its true there never has to be a default in anything, Greece is no problem etc no matter quality of the debt it can be buried on the books and only those who pick apart the failure of value can argue it was virtual default.
    A 100 dollar bill from 1960 is worth 20 cents now I heard, I find that hard to believe and if true its a default in all but name.    Ditto any US government pension will bare the brunt of QE failings, thats a default similarly.  I will get a source for that.
If we find the above to be true I think it does explain alot why BTC rises, yep the technology, growth etc but I swear its this other half also with the dollar story, yen etc



https://www.ft.com/content/2a165852-90ae-11e8-b639-7680cedcc421


Stocks on balance are unlikely to crash so long as currency is this soft.  It could reset a way though, I'd mark the 1987 move as a proper crash and I dont expecially think thats a danger ('87 recovered its losses for anyone who held annually very quickly).   Studies of massive inflation in an economy and its effects on stocks, such as Mexico has suffered previously gave a rough conclusion of no value lost over that period of a decade or so but also no growth.  That including all the false growth from a lower value currency, dividends, etc   So long as the company stayed solvent it didnt crash exactly, on average to an index there was no loss or real growth given.


Motley is just spewing out articles like most news outlets.   Quality varies by each writer but the most you can hope for is information, conclusions are biased to headline vs viewers.


Its a projection so feel free to disregard.   I should post a source but also you can look up birth rates which would be a historic fact at least.   I wont single out France, next time I see an article on demographics like this I will post it.  Its more fundamental then speculative but a nation can always advance away from relying on mass labour exactly, such as the transition from agrarian economies to modern efficiency.
  Its my own personal view that a country is poorer and less likely to grow with a declining population, some believe opposite.  Vietnam undercuts the cost of labour vs China now, China overall is a complicated argument but I wouldn't disagree they have quality control problems.  I said before Im apprehensive on any reliance on China as a flaw waiting to fail.


Futures effect on the underlying market is like a wolf pack U-boat formation, Im not sure how to track that influence exactly apart from knowing the closing dates being particularly prone to sharp movements.  Happens in a few markets with these contracts I think, also their margin requirements vary which can have an influence.
I didnt see it this time but sometimes traders will call out a large buildup of positions at certain prices and potential for manipulation

It shouldnt matter if currency strength were based around trade deficits and QE were unwounded with inflation vs interest rates important but general standing or perception counts towards global reserve currency prospects quite possibly.     However this particular criticism is being dealt with, poorly perhaps.     Sanctions go via UN I guess which requires support and since Iran sanctions are back on the table relates to OPEC and oil price which is never going to be a small thing.


7275 to 7500 area is support area of previous sideways trading I think and that would seem to match this trading now as recent low.   We lost the rough momentum or 8 day average so I'd call it roughly negative at present.
7724 some ceiling to get past.

Would that be elliot wave based thinking or just momentum, long term balance

Its more concerning to me that people believe Ripple reached #2 or that the ranking and perceptions are so loose that ripple get this high without actually making ground breaking real revenue and usage.
My guess is that most of ripple market cap is not true value.  Its probably the case in any real market these valuations have to be tested and its inevitable the market tries to break every side to the box its placed in.  This is what the sceptics are waiting for that the natural course is destructive then genuine growth

Centralised might have a bias towards cheaper costs and certainty because its lacking the main benefits of the whole standard which is to avoid bias to people or powerful bodies who usurp a capitalist market.
Centralised should win if people have found no value in avoiding bias to politics, to a certain nation or people or the inertia of generational wealth.  If its no use to avoid all that then we go back to a central standard and even if dollar or yen or euro did fail it might be a central fixed gold standard, could be anything.  SDR is one actor waiting in the wings, kinda partially gold backed via IMF/UN

Central bankers prove themselves wrong everyday but its normal so not news.  Japanese QE program has been proven a failure for decades now, the only reason these ideas continue is thanks to socialism not capitalism.  The bankers have the resources of an entire country to bail out the programs that do not work and a military to enforce usage of that failing standard.    Nothing there is to be proud of, all I've read is the idea that a stable never ending decline in currency is to appreciated for not allowing total collapse or a disorderly market.   The disorderly part will probably happen anyway at some point either/or unless democracy fails, it could be ironic that China or Russia is key to that rather then the democratic but welfare states of the West

Negative comments dont especially match a market which is mostly going sideways recently.  7724 maybe 8843 resistance and 7537 to measure as a boundary below


I can imagine far worse scenarios, I dont mind if thats all.  Its growth overall

Bit of a short term bottom is possible, some reaction to a channel.   7200 is a reasonable target  and we have the 50 day moving average underneath us also, still rising




Its nonsense to consider less then 12 months.   That view point is fine for traders but anyone drawing a conclusion for BTC on less then a year even is just biased, jumping on a bandwagon.   We got glory supporters and we got the opposite of course, doesnt matter overall

The highest growth comes from the smallest entities, true in business and very likely the best target for Bitcoin itself.    Thats why the high fees thing was really not good for the underlying prospects of BTC and the high price at that time so ironic.   
Markets move in mysterious ways, as BTC improved this year and developed better operation we see the lower price but thats how it goes with speculation.

 Price is sideways and good prospect of upwards till 7200 maybe 7320 before some challenge I reckon, minor movements

Opportunity cost, maybe the car enabled further earnings and its ok :p   but yea depreciating asset, I dont see how the 2003 taurus required every penny

Current action holds the 50 day average still, not sure if thats the reason as some trader refers to 'waves' and support here in other frames of reference.    I see a channel top here however this is just short term/this month



If it breaks out it shouldnt stop at 7320 but thats the first rest

I like this graph and it fits my very general view of 2018 of sideways sideways and some more of that range tracking.   Alot of drama as always, if this was a rollercoaster someone would lose their lunch despite that velocity comes back to zero as long term trumps short term but mostly we are consolidating and waiting for that breakout most likely.  Its a tug of war



I guess we wait until people give up waiting then we can all decide at that point on consensus what happens.    Its a game of musical chairs and everyone is looking at someone else to see what they do.  In the past thats taken a fair while and probably we roll over the top of some significant changes like the halvening event a couple years back but I think also theres other events to bump us out of the rut in the road and Dollar can alter the landscape in its direction, theres alot of inertia.


I guess we are out of the downward channel but also this could be judged on a daily bar and requires close to confirm.   ie. its a bit slow
I see range 7400 - 8 day momentum to 6900, previous channel confirmation top  or as said simply we stick at 7k till it develops

Politicians dont determine a countries fate they merely represent elements.  Biggest mistake is to believe they can alter the tides, like the tale of King canute.   

 Theres a consequence of a welfare state, there is no opt out because they dont want you as a liability later.   [Also it should be said those paying now are required as cash to feed old responsibilities, its not far from a ponzi which works if working population rises]   Same could be said of income tax itself, it used to be you were on your own in the extremes and really it was down to communities themselves to support each other.  However now anything and everything is a Federal responsibility with a cost to go with it.

I think we test 6600 upper before any further action especially.  Enough orders to only blip down to an older low and rise back.   This graph says a bit lower for the low in a trend but I would guess later and it test up first

Interesting Strawbs, he might be saying futures undermines BTC by operating as a naked short.  Requiring no BTC in order to sell that market would mean the price is not limited in a normal way by supply and demand.     

The price is operating in a downward channel still.   If we want a proper rise, it must break upwards from here I think.  At present we have just touched both sides.   I mentioned before a possible break but also it would need to close out on a daily bar when in fact it reversed at that point and we got that latest wave of selling.  It was also about breaching the 50 day average.

So thats the target to beat right now, 6500 close above tommorow mostly I think and 6893 is 50 day. 8 day average is about 7000.     The recent selling could just relate to a recheck of support, its negative but only short term.  I'm hearing some positive projections but not decided on that myself until we close above this negative channel and prove it was just a short term ladder down, it only has to go sideways to do this really I dont ask much 

Pretty much agree with that, its only the usage which will prove any value eventually and BTC is fast, global and cheap.  If its not capable of those things, another product will beat it fairly sure.  Not using it ever seems a fail and the super obvious thing is there is no reason after spending the BTC he cant get more. Using the BTC created demand

If he could use his GPU then great, why wouldn't he use it then or even if he had to rebuy the BTC it was still useful at that moment to be able to use them.  Really it was just a demo anyway.
The guy who sold his house for BTC was probably a bigger deal and that thread was updated by that house seller over years but the thread got locked because too many people were commentating on the thread which is unfortunate.

The secure token for 'internet money' idea goes back 25 years at least and its a reality now, I just think its a shame if its only held not used.  Before BTC alot of monetisation came in via advertising and before that I just remember alot of home built web pages made in notepad and not alot of organisation as it was not as business orientated or motivated.  Low monetary velocity, the tech boom was stocks large companies perhaps not especially at ground level and I count the ground up as the most genuine long lasting economic growth.
   If BTC moved like stocks inflating and deflating, its not as important as actual usage and some of tech boom stocks blew up and never came back which is how many view BTC just a name not a new use


   BTC is useful for pushing useful exchange to areas of the world and population that otherwise are chaotic and not effectively monetised, stuck in bargaining maybe.    There is a kind of elitism behind the Global reserve system of money, presently tied to Dollar it revolves around politics but I believe every human born has the capability to be a genius who changes the world but that wont happen if they are born into the wrong country or situation.    Enabling those people is growth productive and more then justifies BTC existence and ongoing operation, I hope it can be something for the smallest people and the most growth

That exponential picture of the Turkish Lira decline back there, as well a set of numbers it represents paupers being created, whole sections of society who will struggle just to exist and very unlikely to be a productive situation.  Ditto Venezuela and anywhere else, eventually I expect similar in the west even

BTC price is sideways out of a negative channel which could prove positive if it closed daily above 6400 or so

On the positive side though, there is a saying dont ever short a dull market.   Boring could be good, I dream of such things lol  
Also that would fit alongside the idea action picks up in autumn
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dull-market.asp


Nice, that is a heck of a swing.   I was kinda waiting for the tv channel themselves to swing the other way and say nah this is no good, dont ever use Bitcoin or something negative or change track and say go ripple with some corporate sponsor type structure.   That might be a bit much because it relys on viewing figures and Bitcoin if nothing else does raise the interest of people not normally involved with finance at all.





Bitcoin is stuck in a range here, going sideways.   Last time we were here it went on quite a way, month and 5 days and was crossing back and forth over what appears some ceiling now, previously a support point earlier in the year

I would expect of the two crypto will suffer if it does not become more efficient.   Every free market favours the most efficient solution to reach the same point.   Bitcoin as part of its security goes out of its way to introduce this energy cost but I dont think thats feasible for regular simple use globally.   


https://i.imgur.com/MhI5NZt.jpg


Bullish peak in shorts relative to a price that is going sideways after leaving a negative channel, I think thats relatively bullish in an ironic way

Thats a good explanation of why it'll never goto 50,000 then really.   In dollar terms, maybe USD does so horribly we can see that number but in value terms the only need for 50k is via the actual utility of BTC being so high that people are willing to hold it overnight and then you have a billion doing so the price is raised inadvertently.
 
Real estate is very likely more productive for most people and many dont have much spare cash so why is the price going to 50k in that scenario.   Money is more useful in transit but long term you'd need a good reason to push it that high I think.

BTC is depressed right now because US Dollar strength is apparent.  Its nonsense of course but all this tariff and Iran sanctions and so on gives the appearance of strong dollar.   So in terms of running a constant deficit and juggling 20tn of debt this does not work out for the FED or US treasury, it is unlikely to continue as a long term dynamic.    Almost completely obvious is that inflation is always going to be above interest rates, so allowing the reduction of debt in real terms and that means weak dollar.   The free market naturally searches for an alternative to a common standard unable to hold its value, if that wasnt true we'd be in 3 figures still.  Many consider strong dollar a possibility when market consensus turns opposite it should then be far less harsh an environment overall



Torque is right, governments main purpose is to be better then the negative scenario it replaces.   By itself government is not productive, its not part of growth, theres no profit and its literally a tax upon the economy and people its sitting on.    Main thing we can hope for is governance of the military which no other entity can control except this idea of democracy and the benefit of having everyone situated like this is they accept the title of public servant and when told immediately step down which avoids the problem any country with a strong military normally has.
  Really all government does is in its distribution of power and avoidance of harm, otherwise they operate poorly and with great cost compared to any normal competitive consideration.

We need competitive capitalism and we dont have it, we got forced pricing in interest rates and politics instead of business.  For now most of that politics is related to democracy but I dont suppose we always get that. That story is pretty much the biggest global issue I can think of ongoing every year maybe for the rest of my life until it falls over.   Even if crypto disappeared and was found to be of no use, we'd still be stuck with that problem of a failed currency system with countries occasionally reverting to near barter economies and suffering great losses in growth and efficiency.

Seems to be on balance there is substantial speculation on the ETF decisions but its within the short sellers or the most frequent traders expecting some obvious bad news but the vast amount of the normal exchange traffic is not as especially reliant on that decision.   

I think every echo of the first etf denial is more faint then the last.    Maybe the final decision will be the straw to break us out of this area but it still seems to be a common view to hold the negative on this news.
Is that the final say for that ETF or just 1 stage of the process and they can revise and come back for some appeal.   Seems we get many encores to this story and I was never certain it mattered that much to begin with.     I still go on following the little users of bitcoin, in 2018 they enabled the smallest users by dropping fees which is all that matters to me really.   The biggest entities can throw gold bars around or whatever asset they prefer, I dont see they have much use for blockchain but will follow if the market does.

Going on what I've read quickly on this 9 ETF news, people think the decision went on the underlying market not being distributed widely or evenly enough.   Futures is sophisticated traders, an ETF has a higher bar to pass.

The recent price rise reached the 50 day moving average and current pricing is just below the 8 day average.   

Are the lines moving averages, reminds me of options traders marking off the waves of volatility in relation to daily price movements.  
BTC as norm  
The funny thing is if price goes 6500 flat from here to till year end, people might think this pretty poor but the guys in the back rooms would be very happy at such stability and underlying businesses would surely benefit from price stability.  
Just a small slow appreciation could be the best case for all parties.   I dont really believe in such ideals, but boring can be very good really; if everyone were bored for the next year we'd all miss the silent positive to that.  People look at prices too much and focus on the near term as well when overall BTC at any current level is still well beyond what I perceived start of 2017.

  If we are taking value exchanging without pause in a global market already swamped with varying factors then the price being fairly steady is a big plus.      I imagine we breakout and resume the rollercoaster tbh, speculators would be sad if we didnt.



Current price action since about mid August has been buoyant looking back, vs 8 day average only brief dips below have occurred and mostly we have been floating on top with a current rise above 6500.  I'd say we maintained a good level of gloom in reaction while doing very little, I guess thats bullish.

I want to say the target price should be upside of 7316 because BTC does that, it goes places but if we keep the current sensible stage ongoing then 50 day moving average is a fair place for it to find resistance and it did that just a few days ago so thats the more bearish scenario to peak and fall back, resume gloom though as said its not really done anything for a while.

I really dont have that price as anything that big, your 6740 I have as 6500 and already beat it if that makes any sense.  Sure I can see how it can be pencilled in as some significance but what we did in the recent past to run out a downtrend was the more significant move, after that it was reasonable to expect us to continue to the 50 day average at the very least.   Probably or normally BTC rises up, hits it head and maybe sits back down again (if we bearish) , we barely even stood up yet so not that surprised tbh.

Every resistance to me, or what I say from experience is resistance has a kind of magnetised effect to it.  So its resistance but also the price will be drawn to that ceiling and react to it, hence we get the sharp pin candles and people count those as confirmation to support or res I think.   So we are at 50 DMA again, its the 3rd tap and maybe it counts or not.  I dont think it should personally, I think at least 7,200 or so

There is some argument for this area as something of a speed bump, it was lowest price in May and we went sideways here momentarily early August again but I've not noted it as anything.  7200 to 7700 area I think is an area of res or proper ceiling I got on the daily bars so I expect that unless the market is determined we rewind and repeat because this beat so good  

The modem thing blows my mind because anyone who has been around longer then a decade knows the internet used to be slow as hell.   Australia especially, their internet sucks so I dont understand that exactly.
  All I guess there that makes sense is he just used university internet and didnt have much interest beyond that like the codec revisions to normal telephone usage.  But he is interested in crypto protocols somehow, seems a bit off.   How can he be the age he is and not recognise 27mb is a very big file to transmit for the old technology.   Thats not even a crypto question, how long has he used computers for


The BTC price is below 50% tracement level for the last peak to trough decline.  Lows are the 50 DMA area just beaten.   7500 area would be good resistance and 38% of the larger May to June peak into decline move

Goldman dropping plans is bullish, what the heck are they doing messing around in crypto.  They can play the contracts like any other player on a price, do they bundle wheat also no they deal the contracts.   Them realising this is not a cash cow to slay with whatever horrible tactics they troll a market with is for the best, i dont see goldman adding any utility or development to the crypto market.
They didnt pioneer mortgage securities either, they just joined when it was subsidised by government.   Same with US treasuries, its effectively a biased market and Goldman among other 'primary dealers' just enable inflation and the 30 year deficit to continue till it hits the buffers

http://www.goldmansachs666.com/



I was warned of this latest dip.  Not on the news but on price being at the top of a channel and in a medium term picture it sells off a bit even while trending up over a month possibly.   Its been very slow to do anything and I guess enough people got bored waiting

I dont want people to buy anything really, use the blockchain for utility that enables your business is really all that I expect to move the market in the end.   If a more efficient product does this job better then thats the economy that will succeed over BTC I guess.    Long term its not going to be dollars which achieves a better economy, not how its looking now and according to some its impossible for it repay that debt already taken out but who knows how things take place exactly.    

Since BTC has no debt but also no ability to demand it be used as payment its very much uneven in its prospects and subject to speculation, not everyone can handle that. I still think improving usability will yield gains further down the road from a higher population


Bottom prices recently hits a longer term trend on the weekly bars -

https://i.imgur.com/AXcFRQl.png
The blue MA line works out as a 50 week average

sounds smart, stay balanced to prevent a fall/hard landing or being forced into a corner personally

We are back in the loop of Aug 9th to 23rd & prior-

I'll agree BTC is above the 8 day average which for a while I've been watching for an indicator of positive momentum.   However we're also still lodged under 6500 for the moment and need to break the ice of that one to surface higher.
I wouldnt call it rally mode exactly, more of a patient sideways area again.    I guess someone looking on a daily basis might say more but thats where it becomes less speculative and more about events and developments having an effect

Markets doubted Apple for years though.  Its over hyped in price now maybe but relative to the revenue that company brings in it was cheap for years.    They are just reselling other peoples ideas but also I dont doubt they have consumer loyalty to whatever they do.   Apparently people value their usability or style but is that worth a 70% markup I dont know.   But theres been lots of doubts expressed about Apple no doubt.   A good time to be bullish on them was when Mr. Jobs passed away.  Actually its now when he is a far distant influence that it would make more sense to be bearish, as the company is likely to become just another corporate sheep


If we break up but achieve less then the previous peak of 7300 then Im quite bearish medium term, mostly I presume we go sideways

The whole point of the FED policy is to avoid a crisis.   Instead they are spreading losses over decades, which is seen as a positive compared to the alternative of a crash type adjustment.       So theres two extremes which is fixed pricing via central government which does after all have trillions at its disposal, the alternate is not just a crash but a collapse of that control by the FED over monetary supply.  Its very hard to predict a total revolution


re: the triangle pics, this old concept of the deleveraging process came from the FED itself.   However the people who believed this theory are long gone I guess




https://web.archive.org/web/20121015050632/http://www.dailynews.lk/2007/03/01/fin08.asp

See thats when it gets you, market waiting for everyone to drop their guard and then Whammy!





I have a downtrend going down to 6000 below but mostly we are in a flat parallel range 6100-6500 still.   Overhead I just drew in trend of every peak price for 2018 and that'd project 7000 as a ceiling.   Also its possible we beat that negative trend drawn slightly differently but so far theres no evidence of a major trend depressing the price being beaten

^^ wow thats a wild chart.   Just the basic chart shown, seems like news because the break up from 480 makes more sense


I think from external influence it could resolve up but I dont see it near term.    Dollar being seen to have broken any positive trend it might have, would lend positives to any inverse like Bitcoin tends to be.  
  Right today the FED put rates up, overall its not possible for rates to rise to their correct level (above inflation) because of long term debt due.   But in perception at least, FED is strong Dollar which the market will back up and tariffs and that whole deal seem to also have favoured Dollar.  In effect tariffs are not good for dollar imo but the proof takes much longer then initial reactions and speculation

Brandt might be saying something smart but his historical reference took years to play out.   Again that decade revolved around a big change to dollar at the start of the 70's

Hard to tell, seems we need to wait for daily bars to close.     The chart does look optimistic and there was a surge past the 50 day average I noticed.   Then of course it slows again and appears like its on the blocks ready to sprint for 7200 area at least.
However we wait, theres a counter argument and line of lower highs to contest.  Its a fairly well defined trend line, it will have some force in effect if only because many people will draw a similar conclusion.    Its all a bit muddy but I'll throw 6847 out there as possibly part of that trend and I'd like to see that beaten by todays session of trading in Asia or further ahead if need be.  Either way 7200-7400 would be target because thats 200 day average and the most followed measure, especially on mainstream markets thats always followed

Bonds unwinding is what will devalue the currency itself since bonds are a promise to pay dollars at a future date.    The ironic situation is that because the debt pile keeps getting larger it rolls over the bonds instead of expiring and paying out that newly created money into the rest of the economy.   Bonds are dealt in 100k batches and do not easily relate to grocery prices and other ordinary trades but since everything is priced in dollars and the debt has become 21 Trillion or more and a massive influence I presume the overall effect thats understated so far is a much weaker dollar.

Market perception right now is stronger dollar, certainly compared to 2017 the dollar has not had that year long decline.   That decline partly helped BTC appear better then it has this year.    Bonds are the biggest market, stocks are a smaller consideration so far as I know so more of an indicator then a cause but I would not expect BTC initially to thrive while stocks are selling off.    I'm really looking at that bond situation or at least Dollar index for what is likely inverse to BTC strength, it is guided by perception and speculation more then trade so far.   The trade tariffs are not a positive long term but my guess is so far its helped dollar index to be stronger vs emerging markets then it might be otherwise

I have drawn a similar line but also there is support and some idea of a series of higher lows though the recent low broke below that trend.   Also I dont know if that spike up was just noise or something bullish

Hey dont knock the Kia      anything with enough polish to it can shine some, tuning and after market parts nowadays can do alot for many cars in theory.   But I do prefer the sound of a classic V8, give me a big V8 with no forced air on it any day though, maybe a small charger if living at elevation is ok





Its daily bars sorry.   I consider that the most simple take for medium term and easier enough to see the 50 and 200 moving averages.   The 200 has ceased its decline and is actually flat, showing our crab like movement, positive above 6320 would be my short term take

Its extremely unusual and especially for BTC or any crypto so far as I know to switch volatility like this.   All I can think is the pull in trade between bulls and bears could have moved out of sight into various dated contracts in Chicago and maybe it makes more sense to someone able to track volume in both areas.


My take short term is we have a rough respect of volume and a ceiling of the last spike but i expect it to make 6650 and react with that longer term line of resistance before doing anything else.   I dont know why bitfinex is a different price, theres a series of higher lows for a few days leading upto now anyhow

very good point, just walking back the graph shows where the MA likely moves next, especially without any strong trend at present to counter.    There is the possibility it breaks above when we are constricted in range like this and that brings us a positive upto 10k or so.   Indicators shouldnt determine price like that but 200DMA is very heavily referenced so far as I know, it can change the mood no doubt

Forget 200, price is so flat the 50 day average is capping prices currently very consistently



Gold is supposed to go sideways, it does nothing with zero growth so the price should be flat but if anything I'd say it jumps around quite alot bearing that in mind.   In theory people boast about how an ounce of gold buys the same thing over massive amounts of time, an ounce should buy a fine tailored suit was stated as true in Shakespeare's day and thats one way to judge prices now in theory.  

Theres also reference to an acre of corn in ancient Egypt and all sorts but in this value gold has over time is the base purpose of gold.  When price changes and its sold in dollars, then the gold bug will say the dollar changed not the gold and in this case we see dollar worth less over decades which going on wages is likely true.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110819005774/en/History-Shows-Price-Ounce-Gold-Equals-Price

They've gone off the shelf I think, afaik it should be made to measure which is not very common and of course references wages and the economy at that time in the price.  Cant say I own one of those so I wouldnt know the pricing exactly but in many cities its in the region

Bang usually means danger is both directions, Bitcoin gets freaky around the year end is not a hard conclusion.  Not quite sure why exactly, people sending cash home for holidays and before new year or something who knows.  Or it could just be coincidence and we already had that drama last year and now its just going to keep being quiet.    Last September I remember it being real gloomy on Chinese ban news and then somehow unexpectedly that resolved to the upside and broke out.
   So if theres a bang, I'd only expect the same with bad news and seemingly price knocked back and then the trick is to spot the strength within that

Kinda similar chart, cant remember if I got it from twitter or where.   A quarterly bar would probably be less picky, more useful but even mainstream markets they do call out weakness in certain months. However BTC never takes a holiday like conventional markets

Its certain he is not from what I've read he has not done anything special to hint he is at the same level as the inventor of Bitcoin.  The current price action is more then one thing definitely not one person, it might be related to Bitcoin cash for these few days but also its broken a trend of declining price movement (and also some support) so I dont think it will just settle back to 6500 in a week.   Likely it has establish a new trend or break above something around 5800 to 6100 and hold above

The rich guy should learn to be a little selfless, focus on others a bit more with his 20m or however much.   Doesnt have to be charity exactly but he can consider to invest in the right places and make a big difference.    It might even cheer himself up a little
I dont exactly agree with Warren Buffet but the sensible thing of buying gold or whatever solid value .  It'll never give anything more then a completely passive return.  Wheres enabling growth which BTC imo has a possibility to be part of, that can transform the world


Middle of 2011 and I did some mining on  CPU and obviously I wish my brain had kicked into gear and I realised this had some relation to PGP in new effects and new technology on a software, protocol level & how this was a new horizon.  I shouldnt have tried to guess will it be sucessfull, just the concept it had never been tried before.  That alone should have been enough, instead I was like yea this takes forever just to get 0.1 btc and I didnt even save my mining proceeds.   
I did try gfx mining a few times, it was being a hassle so I gave up.
Couple years later a load of us from mainstream computer forums were involved, actually mid or early summer 2013 it declined in profit taking as often BTC does.  Calmed down alot and then took off again into the year end, making the TV just like last year.   I presume momentum was abroad & a slight mystery to me, far east and to me I never was sure who was using it alot and only understood later China liked it.   2014 onwards the alt coin sector had alot more interest, many wanting to step onboard on day 1 with various ideas, variations the majority erroneous
So say 100$+ was my price of entry back then, alot of users were miners first and speculating in hardware to in turn gain BTC.   One guy I know rewired his whole house for mining in late 2013, if I'd been more serious in 2011 era I'd say that was the oldtimer Jurassic period   

 

A typical post from 2011

Dont make a singular buy like a lottery ticket, I dont really advise that at any time with any asset.   Who the heck can ever tell whats going to appear in the news to move prices, theres possibilities and speculation on direction but the best way to buy is regularly and hold for long term if they want to buy 'for xmas' they should at least buy every week 3 months before xmas and every week after xmas till chinese new year maybe. 

Its not like a year ago when transaction costs meant you couldnt spread out your movements of BTC, so make use of the utility imo.  I dont see BTC moving far without both a requirement (declining dollar or similar circumstances) and also the good provision by BTC with utility to parties not otherwise served, globally, without political borders and other advantages. 
  No advantage, cant really expect performance on the charts but generally I still count BTC way above where I thought in 2013, 2014 where it'd be projected forward so how I can be negative on it regardless of red bars now