All posts made by Tzupy in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 2754617 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Funny, but no: as long as there's a large gap between MtGox and other exchanges, any massive dump on MtGox will reflect immediately on other exchanges.
2.
Post 2781443 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
If someone really wants to buy lots of BTC before a certain financial crysis hits (Portugal, Ireland, whatever), then it might be possible
we'll see a pump-up to 95-100, but not more, because the sellers are desperate to unload their BTC above 100.
OTOH if we look at past charts, it seems likely to have a major drop from 90 to 75, then a small rebound to 80, and another drop to 65-70,
where the buying intentions are still very strong (for now). This major drop may happen even after a pump-up to 95-100, if the
expected financial crysis doesn't become news. Because then we might see BTC up to 200+. This suspense is starting to annoy me...
3.
Post 2782511 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
That's the buying whale, he's willing to buy at 91.6 but does not want to move the price up.
That's because he wants to buy more at 90-ish. So he waits for a selling whale to meet his price.
4.
Post 2782759 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
The only question is if the buying whale will place another order at 91.6 (or close) after his current order gets exhausted.
For now his order is a great opportunity to dump your BTC if you feel bearish. After this, the price may slowly decline.
5.
Post 2790211 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
You are mistaken, Bitstamp only has to abide by the laws of the country it is registered in.
Which is UK for Bitstamp itself, but Slovenia for their bank.
It's the US citizens that also have to abide by those laws when doing business with Bitstamp.
6.
Post 2790509 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
I agree that the US government can strongarm MtGox (Japan) and Bitstamp (UK), because those countries are close allies and may comply with US demands.
About BTC-E, I'm not sure what the US government can do, maybe hire some rackets to put a bomb in their server room (just a hypothesis)?
7.
Post 2792920 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
MtGox appears to be under severe DDoS attack, the trade engine lag is 5 minutes now. Or something happened to their servers.
Make that 11 minutes, then back to normal.
8.
Post 2800903 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
The buying whale again, as expected, I managed to buy 95% of my target before he placed his order.
But he's not willing to pay more than 97, at least for now.
9.
Post 2801114 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Some people believed that 97 was a good price to sell at. Maybe they were right, but if the current trend continues, we might see 100 in 3 days.
10.
Post 2801568 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
I'm the only one who keeps get disconnected from mtgox?
No you are not the only one, this is annoying, 15 extra seconds for password and Yubikey could make me lose an opportunity.
11.
Post 2802493 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Some people believed that 97 was a good price to sell at. Maybe they were right, but if the current trend continues, we might see 100 in 3 days.
I wasn't asking about why did people sell, I'm asking why would someone throw a 3k bid wall at 97, have it get eaten, then we see an ask wall of 1000 at 97 come up just after
Bizarre unless i'm missing something, and it's as simple as someone really wants bitcoins at 97
Possible explanation: after the previous whale buy, which drove the price from 93 to 97, there was a slow slump back to 93.
Today's sellers below 97, down to 95.5, hoped to influence the market into slumping back to 93-94. It's early to tell if they were wrong,
but IMO it's more likely to reach 98 than to slump back to 94. Of course, a whale sell can prove me wrong anytime.
12.
Post 2806865 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Is MtGox down for someone else too? I'm getting 502 bad gateway.
13.
Post 2807010 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
We have the standoff between a buying whale and sellers that are willing to dump at 96-97,
I believe mostly people who missed the train on the 19th July (I didn't, sold at 99 the day before).
If the buying whale makes another move today, up to 98 I believe, we'll find out if the sellers
get exhausted or not. If they do, the way to 100 and beyond is open IMO.
14.
Post 2808206 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
The buying whale has decided to wait for seller exhaustion at 96.
And yes, this is f-ing boooring!
15.
Post 2810127 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
For those holding $ and willing to buy BTC on MtGox, it's easy for now: just place a buy order just above the 96 wall and wait to get hit.
Seller pressure is still strong above 96, quite often the 96 wall is hit by sell orders.
A correction of the price is expected once the buying whale doesn't buy on MtGox anymore, who knows when he'll stop.
But the price to go down to 60, that's wishful thinking. If it happens, I'd probably take a fiat loan from the bank just to buy more BTC.
The difference in mining difficulty between the 7th July and the 7th August is quite significant. GPU miners are quitting en masse, only ASICs remain.
And ASIC miners should rather get fiat loans than sell when the market is low, when they know next year it's going to be at least 150 if not 200.
So I believe that a price drop down to maybe 80 is possible, but in the next months we'll see the average price rise above 100, possibly 120.
16.
Post 2820848 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
If the whale buyer makes another 2 moves soon, we'll see a panic buy and 120, which would be quite unexpected.
As a good bear, I hoped the price will fall somewhere around 80 (to buy more), but it's not going that direction (well, not yet).
17.
Post 2824760 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Maybe someone is trying to ignit a panic buy prior to performing a massive dump ?
My theory too. It will be the mother of all dumps, because if we reach 120$, there will be about 100k
BTC buy orders above 80$.
But I think there is still some time left until the giant dump, so today I'm 100%
BTC. Ready to panic sell anytime though.
18.
Post 2825148 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
During the last 24h the ask sum has dropped by about 22k BTC. If this trend continues for 3-4 days,
we'll have a bubble spike at somewhere between 160$ and 230$ IMO (sounds crazy, I know).
19.
Post 2825860 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
IMO due to the discrepancy between the bid sum and ask sum, we should be already knocking at the 105 wall.
We are probably not there yet because there's still strong seller resistance above 102. Maybe tomorrow.
20.
Post 2832196 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Without the whale buyer to move the market up, we may be slowly going down for a while.
It's possible that the whale buyer does not want to buy above 100, so he may wait for the price to drop.
21.
Post 2848649 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
It will, very soon. Unfortunately it may drop below 100, which would be a real mess.
PS. I spotted a sudden drop of 3k BTC in sell orders. I'm not yet sure what it means.
PS2. And surge back again, more than 4k. People are repositioning their orders.
22.
Post 2857872 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
The ask sum / bid sum ratio tells me that we should drop to 101 - 102 soon, if no whale buy occurs.
If we have one or more whale buys, the price will climb to 107 - 108 and then slowly drop.
23.
Post 2860983 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Actually, a lot is happening. Buyer pressure has increased, so now we have 2 scenarios:
1) a large whale dump that would take advantage of the buy walls, meaning we are deep in bearish scenario.
2) the start of the middle Elliot wave, in which case we'll see peaks of 110, 115, maybe 120.
Without the buy walls who hold for now at 101 - 102, the price would have dropped below 101, possibly below 100.
The walls have been steadily growing, but who knows if they are real or not (they could be pulled).
24.
Post 2861051 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Without increased buyer pressure, we would have dropped to 101 by now.
Just small players for now, but enough to delay or maybe revert (too early to tell) the drop to 101.
25.
Post 2861089 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
If we start the middle Elliot wave then 101 would be dirt cheap, but if not then 99 would be a waste.
26.
Post 2861301 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
If small players take it to 106 and not more, then we are in the 5th part of a type 5 Elliot wave.
If big players take it to 110 - 112, then we are in the 1st part of a type 5 Elliot wave.
27.
Post 2861466 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
If so, then assuming the latter scenario, you're predicting that we go to about $130-ish, then go down to $100 again, and then back up again (when we start new wave)? That makes sense.
I'm not predicting 130, I just presented the 2 scenarios I see as possible.
For now, it's not looking good, the small players have been unable to keep the price at 106.
28.
Post 2863286 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Its going up!
I feel it in my bones,
I know that ask wall's bout to blow
Several indicators are looking good, but not great. To really go up we need the 1.0 - 1.5 million $ that are not seen
on the bid sum at MtGox. So right now it could be just a flash in the pan.
29.
Post 2866374 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
The wall sends a message. If he wanted to buy at 105, he should have only put some 50 -100 at a time,
which would have looked as a good opportunity to some sellers.
30.
Post 2867108 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Sell wall at 108 more than doubled quickly, hmm...
31.
Post 2871624 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Market indicators do not suggest right now an imminent drop, on the contrary, if the current trend
continues we will soon be above the sub-wave of August 2nd. The only way I see possible right now
to go down is by a massive whale dump, something like ~20k BTC down to 99.
32.
Post 2871692 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
If some whales help the push, 112 is easy. In fact, I moved my sell order from 111.9x to 114.9x, just in case...
33.
Post 2872369 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Well, if you push it up to 112, I'll do my best to push it to 112.5.
34.
Post 2878876 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Question is, do the DDoS-ers have the 3.5k BTC (and more) to dump into the 105 wall?
Earlier today I dumped into the 106.1 wall while the market indicators were looking worse, and
while the wall was eaten courtesy of other bigger players, it didn't make much of a difference.
35.
Post 2879035 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
There were about 3.5k BTC at 105, and more than half was sold into. The walls partially pulled are at 103 and 101,
but they are almost back by now. Looks like the continuous uptrend is challenged.
36.
Post 2879122 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
There were about 3.5k BTC at 105, and more than half was sold into. The walls partially pulled are at 103 and 101,
but they are almost back by now. Looks like the continuous uptrend is challenged.
Where do you see up to date order book? Is there 3 minute lag or is my clarkmoody fucked up?
4 minutes, well here we go
I watch clarkmoody, bitcoinity, bitcoincharts and blockchained.
Of course the lag affects everyone, so we'll know the real situation only after MtGox recovers from the DDoS.
37.
Post 2879196 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Stupid DDoS and dump attack. To succeed they should have DDoSed MtGox while NOT dumping on MtGox but on Bitstamp.
The market depth there is much smaller and they could have dropped the price by 8$ with the same amount of BTC required
to drop 2$ on MtGox. Now when the spread between MtGox and Bitstamp would have been 16$ instead of the usual 8$,
what would many of us think? Let's dump on MtGox while I can get in front of others, 8$ drop is a big deal.
38.
Post 2879349 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Do you see the sharp drops in bid sum? The first one persuaded me to dump into the 106.1 wall earlier today.
They should be correlated with significant price drops, but the first one had almost no effect on the market.
39.
Post 2885985 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
105 wall got cancelled
That seems to have really happened, as viewed in the MtGox buyer queue at clarkmoody, but the
graph at bitcoinity still shows the wall present, for several minutes after, anyone has an explanation?
40.
Post 2886001 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
I refreshed many times, I get the same view, the wall at 105.22 is still there... weird...
41.
Post 2886049 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
42.
Post 2890589 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
If the wall at 104 gets eaten / pulled / combination, then people will start thinking: 'OMG! We're going down! Sell now!'. We'll see...
43.
Post 2890737 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
If the wall at 104 gets eaten / pulled / combination, then people will start thinking: 'OMG! We're going down! Sell now!'. We'll see...
There's still hope for the bears!
*buys coins*
Really, you bought at 104? LMAO!
PS. I remembered I had a buy order at 98.0x, that's where I expected this to stop, but the 6k
BTC dump made me nervous and cancelled it for now.
44.
Post 2890815 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
6 days ago I had a dream where people were screaming 'Sell! Sell now!' and the price was going down a lot.
This made me fell more bearish than usual until today, when it's finally happening. Cheaper bitcoins ... yummy!
45.
Post 2890832 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Bitcoinity is out of order with respect to the walls, I was recommended trading.i286.org (google it, don't click on links).
46.
Post 2890848 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Market didn't get the memo yet, so there is inertia in following the downtrend. Give it time, people will start to panic more and more.
47.
Post 2890892 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
If I were the dumper (I'm not!) then the best strategy is to break the 100 $ psychological barrier and let the market do the rest.
That assuming the dumper wants to buy back later much cheaper.
48.
Post 2891006 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
If I were the dumper (I'm not!) then the best strategy is to break the 100 $ psychological barrier and let the market do the rest.
That assuming the dumper wants to buy back later much cheaper.
Yup, I never understand why they don't do just that. Or maybe there is some strategy of false hopes for a better effect -> dump -> let it go back up a bit -> crush newly formed support and break 100
False hopes, yes, but just to harvest more $ from those who believe the dump is over.
I am apprehensive right now, I have a feeling that it's not over yet, but we'll see.
49.
Post 2891159 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
I missed an opportunity: should have let the whale hit me at 101.2, but who knew where it would stop?
And who knew there would be someone willing to buy 700+ BTC at 104 $ after that?
Anyway, I believe that once the small rebound loses steam and the downtrend continues, the whale will
proceed with another dump, because he doesn't want someone else to harvest 'his' buy orders.
50.
Post 2891280 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
I missed an opportunity: should have let the whale hit me at 101.2, but who knew where it would stop?
And who knew there would be someone willing to buy 700+ BTC at 104 $ after that?
Anyway, I believe that once the small rebound loses steam and the downtrend continues, the whale will
proceed with another dump, because he doesn't want someone else to harvest 'his' buy orders.
You probably scream everytime the price switches between 102.X and 103.5 spread?
Funny, but between 101.2 and 104 there was profit to be made. Between 102.x and 103.5 there was almost no profit and high risks.
51.
Post 2891326 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
I missed an opportunity: should have let the whale hit me at 101.2, but who knew where it would stop?
And who knew there would be someone willing to buy 700+ BTC at 104 $ after that?
Anyway, I believe that once the small rebound loses steam and the downtrend continues, the whale will
proceed with another dump, because he doesn't want someone else to harvest 'his' buy orders.
So did you buy at 101.2 now?
NO, buying at 101.2 now would have been too risky IMO, we are going down, as far as I can tell.
No idiot will put now another large buy order at 104.
52.
Post 2891424 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
well there was a guy a two months ago who put a 10k order that took the price from 95 to 110.
Hmm, I think it's more complicated. IMO the whale who dumped today stopped buying at 98, and 98 might be his bottom for now.
But if he started buying at 78, then you do the math...
53.
Post 2891485 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Yeah, have to try that next. I go to near library to test this. Luckily the trend is down so I'm not going to buy now =)
You should be grateful to MtGox staff for their incompetence, they helped you avoid a loss.
54.
Post 2891981 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
the question is: which whale should buy at mtgox now ? if he wants to buy 5k BTC, buying on bitstamp would be much cheaper. So i think mtgox can only fall now.
The trend will be broken, when the first whale buys on bitstamp and equals the price!
Good point, but there's also a major unknown here: fiat withdrawals from MtGox, are they being sped up or not?
During the last two days, the bid sum dropped by about 2 million $, while the ask sum has been slowly rising.
If the bid sum continues it's downwards trend, the price will keep dropping.
55.
Post 2891998 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Wow you've just blown my mind. Why have whales used gox to buy in the last few weeks at all? Makes no sense.
IMO only to rise the price above 98, after which the market took it to 110. And now it's harvest time.
56.
Post 2893510 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Why are we having a rally just after this dump? Doesn't make sense to me, it may take the price above 106... Weird...
57.
Post 2893572 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Why are we having a rally just after this dump? Doesn't make sense to me, it may take the price above 106... Weird...
A close look at the chart history shows that there is nothing weird about it. It seems to happen with regularity.
If this rally in progress takes the price above 106, I'll be confused, because it won't match the Elliot sub-wave theory.
58.
Post 2893643 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
I also sold before the dump and bought at an average of 102.4 (101.2 would have been nice, but seemed risky),
and now the bid sum / ask sum points towards 106, with a possible overshoot to 107, that would be higher than
the start of the dump. I'll just have to watch how this unfolds and draw conclusions later.
59.
Post 2911199 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Situation looks to me similar to the one on July 1st, just before the big drops from 95 to 67.
If it repeats, we might see the price dropping to the 80s. But on the short term, someone is trying to pump up the price,
maybe hoping to trigger a mini-rally. We'll see in a couple of days which way we go.
Of course, if Fort Gox sorts out the $ withdrawals (unlikely though), the price could drop to the 50s.
60.
Post 2911601 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
So, which sub wave is this?
The sub-wave of 9th august clearly looked like a descending one, while on the 10th it was undefined.
My guess is that we still have a slight upward trend due to the
BTC withdrawals from Fort Gox, and
this interferes with the waves, making the weaker ones difficult to recognize. We'll know for sure in 2 days.
PS. In 2 days we should know for sure if we are now in wave B of the corrective trend, and moving into wave C.
61.
Post 2918833 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
If $ could be withdrawn from Fort Gox, then the price would go down sharply, maybe to the 50s.
But it seems that the cash out of Gox is still buying BTC and selling to other exchanges, which adds some
weirdness to the price formation. When funds leave Gox, the price - in Gox dollars - rises, instead of dropping.
The current supply / demand ratio points towards a price of 106, and there are almost 3k BTC to buy till 106.
62.
Post 2920367 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Bad timing! I was expecting this only tomorrow, but today is even better.
63.
Post 2920432 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
What's worrying is that there's almost no resistance, if there were resistance we would see someone dumping into the 108 mini-wall.
This could go up to 110 and beyond, remains to be seen how hungry the buying whales are.
IMO the walls at 108 (eaten by now), 107 and 106 are there so they can be eaten before the next buy.
64.
Post 2920696 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
SEC might be just doing the bidding of DHS. There is less than a month until the 12th anniversary of September 11 2001.
Those crazy muslim terrorists may be preparing something, and DHS is trying to cut down money supply routes to
potential terrorists. Unfortunately for the BTC community, BTC can be used to fund terrorism, and honest traders
get caught in the middle. Just a theory of mine...
65.
Post 2926525 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
I'm uncertain if what follows is a 3 $ rise in a mini-rally or a 8 $ rise in a full rally.
66.
Post 2926806 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
IMO the market isn't following yet, and the whale buyer doesn't want it to follow.
He depletes seller resistance, without triggering a full rally, thus optimizing his purchase cost.
He'll only act when the market is about to buy his targeted coins. If the predicted price rises
quickly to 110, then we'll see another whale buy. And it seems we are going there.
67.
Post 2927806 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Price is going up very soon, unsure yet how much. New buy walls.
68.
Post 2928094 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Yes, that's telling me we should hit 110 very soon, it would be ridiculous to miss 110 from here.
But the momentum from the push and the eating of the wall at 110 should translate into
a second stage that rises up to 113 - 114 IMO.
69.
Post 2928571 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Maybe a third sub-sub-wave will hit 110, but I doubt it will eat the wall.
Anyway, it's 3.30 am and I have to go to sleep, so I'll miss the action (if any).
70.
Post 2930063 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Maybe a third sub-sub-wave will hit 110, but I doubt it will eat the wall.
Anyway, it's 3.30 am and I have to go to sleep, so I'll miss the action (if any).
nom nom nom
Bummer! Why does this happen while I'm asleep, again? Can't stay awake 24h / day...
I placed my sell order just below 110, thinking that would be the peak for yesterday.
Oh well, what goes up comes down, eventually.
71.
Post 2930314 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Yes, that's telling me we should hit 110 very soon, it would be ridiculous to miss 110 from here.
But the momentum from the push and the eating of the wall at 110 should translate into
a second stage that rises up to 113 - 114 IMO.
As you can see from a previous post of mine, I was correct about the top, but I had to sell at the top
while I was asleep so I chose a 'safe' strategy. What I'm seriously reconsidering is my sleep strategy,
maybe I should go to bed earlier and wake up before 6 am (my local time).
72.
Post 2930472 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
115 is unsustainable IMO. The correct price right now is about 113. I think a 'harvest' may come soon.
PS. The 115 level appears almost sustainable for now.
73.
Post 2930610 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
We'll see if those buy walls are real or not. If they are real, then there are 7.3k BTC to dump down to 110, quite a tempting harvest.
74.
Post 2930751 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Dudes, can't you recognize manipulation? The bid sum has pretty much peaked, while the ask sum
is artificially dropped, resulting in a price increase. When the high bids will be 'ripe', they will be 'harvested' IMO.
75.
Post 2931223 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Or we are very close to a panic sale / whale dump, we'll see very soon.
76.
Post 2931512 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Actually, feds fighting BTC is bullish news for me. The easiest way to marginalize BTC is to crash the price to the bottom,
then buy back, repeat. So the feds could slowly buy 100K BTC, driving the price up to maybe 130 $, then dump in 5 sub-waves.
When price will reach 20 $, buy back. And repeat until price is under 1 $, then 99% of people will learn to stay away from BTC.
77.
Post 2931928 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Wall at 112 eaten, price going down, possible panic sale.
78.
Post 2932052 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Wall at 112 eaten, price going down, possible panic sale.
Or not.
Oh yes, bid sum dropped like a rock, price should follow.
79.
Post 2932303 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
OK, no panic sale yet. I must confess I have a craving for panic sales.
But what are those suckers trying to do, push the price towards 114 again?
The correct price right now is 110 - 111, so they have no chance, just losing money.
Once the ask sum rises, the down trend will resume IMO.
80.
Post 2932625 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Tzupy, i have one question before i put you on ignore.
You are extremely filthy rich right? I mean you have to be since you know in detail where the market is going every single hour...right?
No, just a small investor. And I am trying hard to predict market movements, although I am still getting timing and amplitude wrong.
81.
Post 2932720 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Once the ask sum rises, the down trend will resume IMO.
Down trend? LOL
Take a look at the past week. The trend is up.
The slippage from 115 to 111 was probably just a combination of profit taking and correction, and possibly just a nice little bear trap.
Someone has invested too much in the last few weeks to allow a trend reversal.
I find hard to believe that a return to 115 and above is possible soon, according to the bid sum / ask sum ratio, not after such a drop.
But indeed, the lack of a large drop in price until now is significant. This happens mainly because the sellers don't rise the ask sum yet.
If the ask sum remains at this level on a longer term, then we'll resume the up trend.
82.
Post 2933047 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
I'm impressed, whale buy again against market indicators. Wow!
83.
Post 2933165 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
I beg to differ, all the whale buys during the last month were more or less predictable from market indicators.
By market indicators I mean the bid sum / ask sum ratio, stochastic RSI, money flow index and MACD.
In this case, whales acting against market indicators is something quite worrisome.
As for the order book, I do care about walls, because I place my orders close to them.
84.
Post 2935149 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
During the last 3 days about 20k BTC have disappeared from the order book (at least as I write this).
Do you think it's just one major player (possibly a company) buying? Is the withdrawal of funds from Fort Gox via BTC over?
85.
Post 2935287 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
During the last 3 days about 20k BTC have disappeared from the order book (at least as I write this).
Do you think it's just one major player (possibly a company) buying? Is the withdrawal of funds from Fort Gox via BTC over?
I think it's one major player (probably a company) instigating and maintaining the uptrend to acquire an inventory of bitcoins as cheaply as possible while keeping the price as stable as possible to protect their assets.
I disagree with the 'protect their assets' part, because it's conflicting with the 'as cheaply as possible' part, which is the important one IMO.
My evaluation is that the major player lets the market go down if possible, and buys when the uptrend from the 'withdrawal via
BTC' is about to make coins more expensive anyway.
86.
Post 2938711 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Actually, feds fighting BTC is bullish news for me. The easiest way to marginalize BTC is to crash the price to the bottom,
then buy back, repeat. So the feds could slowly buy 100K BTC, driving the price up to maybe 130 $, then dump in 5 sub-waves.
When price will reach 20 $, buy back. And repeat until price is under 1 $, then 99% of people will learn to stay away from BTC.
I doubt that would work well. 100k might not be enough to slam price to $20 and buying them might well ignite quite a rally well above $130.
They would need some futures market or etf or whatever accessible to JP Morgan allowing them the use of fiat for price manipulation.
I was talking hypothetically. In the current situation, trying to buy 100k at Fort Gox could trigger a panic buy that might reach 4,000$ / coin (or more).
But I suspect the feds, in some form, are already hindering $ outflow from Gox. Like the banksters and Gox's incompetent management weren't enough...
87.
Post 2950669 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
I suspect there was some arbitrage going on between Bitstamp and MtGox, possibly through JPY.
Maybe some people did a half-arbitrage, like me: bought at 97.7 on Bitstamp, sold at 114.5 on MtGox.
88.
Post 2951424 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
On bitcoincharts it looks like it went up to 114, I think clarkmoody is not working in real time.
PS. Refreshed clarkmoody, not it shows corrected to 114.
89.
Post 2952068 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Market is starting to look erratic, capitulation is coming.
So, do you believe we are in wave B now? That was my theory, but the higher top 2 days ago made me doubt it.
My theory is that the Elliot wave pattern has a rising base, due to the
BTC withdrawals from MtGox.
So the peak of August 1st was the real wave 5, and the peak of August 15 was wave B's top.
But capitulation is associated with cash-out. If the main way to cash out of Gox is via
BTC purchase,
can't we see 5 capitulation sub-waves that move the price up instead of down?
90.
Post 2952194 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
I'm actually glad the majority is so ignorant.
Would you mind answering this ignorant's question on the previous page?
91.
Post 2952298 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
What was the top at 130 again? 136 or something?
Yes, it was 135 or 136. But there also was a juicy 25k+
BTC buy wall at 127 $. What's your point with the 136 $ peak value?
PS. Bid sum has risen a lot in a short time. Maybe a mini-rally is on the way?
92.
Post 2952518 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
We should have been at 114 by now. Something is brewing...
93.
Post 2952812 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Patience I do have, but this has the potential to unfold
AGAIN during the night (my time), and I can't stay awake more than 3.00 am.
94.
Post 2953088 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Right now it looks like whales herding the sheeple into buying up to the 115 wall.
I hope I'm wrong and we'll see 120, but for now this looks fishy to me.
95.
Post 2953339 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
For now, there is only potential to reach 120, and then if we entered a positive feedback loop, even
500 would have been possible. But I suspect the whales are going to wait for the sheeple to place
a bid wall around 112, then dump big. If the current situation continues for a while (no break through 120),
then it's going to be harvest time IMO. I am still 100% coins, with a sell order at 124.9x, just in case.
96.
Post 2962843 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
I do but little guys won't cause the price to shoot up like this.
The price is rising because of whales buying huge amounts of BTC in a single order (we saw some 5k buy orders today) so it doesn't make sense.
Also where are those coins from the "gox run" getting sold? Volume of the other exchanges is ultra low compared to gox.
The big whale only bought at the bottom of this rally, smaller whales followed.
As for the missing coins, they may show up for sale on Gox in about 15 days (that's a crude estimation).
97.
Post 2963025 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Not really, the last one happened @ $123.
Also if they get sold on Gox in 15days it's just another argument against the theory of people "getting out of gox".
The 123 push was no whale, just panic buyers.
There were people getting out of Gox via coins and Bitstamp, where they are probably selling now or will sell when the next rally happens.
But my 15 days crude estimate is about the sub-waves 4 and 5 of the main Elliot wave.
98.
Post 2965976 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
IMO there will be another rally in 4 - 5 days, but the chances of rising to 180 are minuscule.
I'm pretty sure it will be at least 125, maybe 130. If there will be lots of panic buys, could be 140.
But until then, price has to drop to 115 (maybe 114) first, this is the correct price in 1 - 2 days.
99.
Post 2969345 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Some people couldn't wait for 1 day to buy lower, that's worrisome.
Anyway, now it's only 3k until 111, if someone wants to sell big.
100.
Post 2969498 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Some people couldn't wait for 1 day to buy lower, that's worrisome.
Anyway, now it's only 3k until 111, if someone wants to sell big.
Where are you seeing that? I see 3000btc would get us down into 116 range. 111 would take 15000btc sold.
Fake buy wall is herding sheeple into buying at 123. It appears and dissapears, to dissuade a large dump into it.
101.
Post 2969648 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Actually, it's a smart whale strategy: why dump when you can herd sheeple into buying your coins?
The big whale needs more $ to kickstart the next rally, which could rise to 130, given the bullishness of the market.
102.
Post 2969823 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
For me, the previous rally in this bubble period was on the 14th August, our definition of terms seems different.
And I do expect another one in 4 - 5 days, rising to 130 or more. So don't confuse me with a stubborn bear.
I do believe however that we'll see most of the missing coins after the bullishness of the market gets exhausted.
103.
Post 2971837 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Damn panic buyers, they don't let the price slip to 115!
104.
Post 2980148 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
The bubble period that deflated starting at the end of May was driven by the bid sum. Bid sum rose a lot, bubble inflated, then bid sum dropped a lot,
bubble deflated. But the current bubble period is rather driven by the ask sum, and less sensitive to the bid sum. Considering that Fort Gox keeps the bid sum
from sharply dropping, the only way to deflate is a massive increase in the ask sum. Or plainly explained, lots of coins at lower prices to be offered.
So far, I haven't seen this happening, but maybe the next days it will happen. If this doesn't happen, we're kind of stuck in limbo.
105.
Post 2983173 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
If 125 was the top, then by the 27th price should be between 115 and 120 IMO.
106.
Post 2987001 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
IMO the bull party is over. What can be seen in the charts is the topmost Elliot sub-wave, with it's 5 sub-sub-waves, although the last one is about to begin,
and may be ill defined. I am certain that a correction is coming, dropping the price to the 112 - 114 range, followed by a (slow?) rebound to maybe 117 - 118.
The uber-bulls are going to interpret this as a bear trap, but I believe it will be the prelude to more drops, after a couple of days.
107.
Post 2988531 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
Does anyone have any reasonable speculation about how many bitcoins may have been secured by this 'whale' buyer(s) since the July turnaround? It must be an immense amount.
My estimation was 40k - 50k, but I suspect a good amount were already sold at the 120 - 125 price level.
108.
Post 2991458 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
The price level has been sustained by panic buyers, against market indicators, for several days, but now it's over.
I got bored watching this drama unfold in slow motion, but in a few hours a panic sale may start.
109.
Post 2991532 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
If you mean that I'm waiting for sub 60s since 2 months ago, you are mistaken.
I sold at 120 after buying at 110, and shall buy again at the bottom of this upcoming drop,
because I believe that price will rebound enough to make a profit.
As for sub 60s, it's too early to predict that as capitulation price.
If Gox $ withdrawals return to normal (maybe, maybe not, I don't know), then a bottom at about 60 is possible.
110.
Post 2998549 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
$180 by next Friday, i promise.
This is going to be a terrible news for me if you fulfill on your promise. I want to buy back at double digits you know.
Can you postpone your promise by 10 - 14 days?
LOL. Don't feed the trolls, please.
The best time to buy back will be after 2 strong downward sub-waves, in order to profit from the fake return to bull market.
But it's too early to tell when this will happen, just keep your eyes on the market. Could be 10 - 14 days as you mentioned.
111.
Post 2998732 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
The best time to buy back will be after 2 strong downward sub-waves, in order to profit from the fake return to bull market.
Can you post a mock-up chart of how you predict it happening?
I don't predict it, EW theory predicts it, and it happened before between about 9th to 21st June.
But I can't predict how this will unfold now, under different market conditions.
It's followed by the 5 downward sub-waves that lead to total capitulation, most blood in the streets, and time to buy back.
112.
Post 2998973 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
EW theory predicts it [...] It's followed by the 5 downward sub-waves that lead to total capitulation, most blood in the streets, and time to buy back.
I do not see the prediction on your chart. Can you use tradingview and paint those subwaves on a chart? I am interested to know what these waves would look like.
Sorry, I don't use tradingview. And I didn't paint a prediction on the chart, I asked you to just look at the 9th to 21st June interval, that's wave B of the previous bubble period.
113.
Post 3010850 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
Shhh, don't tip the uber-bulls...
// start sarcasm
Uber-bulls have nothing to worry about, the price is going 'up uP UP', 'to da moon', parabolic, whatever you want.
// end sarcasm
114.
Post 3025065 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
can we say winklevoss lol
No. They bought in the second half of 2012 at an average of 15$ / coin, and are one of the reasons
for the bubble spike in April. I doubt they'll buy again above 50$.
115.
Post 3026445 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
can we say winklevoss lol
No. They bought in the second half of 2012 at an average of 15$ / coin, and are one of the reasons
for the bubble spike in April. I doubt they'll buy again above 50$.
And of course you know exactly how it is, right?
That's what they claimed. About 100k coins bought for about 1.5 M$, a large part of the missing coins of 2012. If you can prove otherwise, please do so.
As for my wrong decision not to expect a third whale buy, it's my loss. You can rejoice!
I expect another large buy in a couple of hours, but I can't say how strong it will be.
The reserve funds on the bid side are about 1.5M$, but I have no idea how much will be used.
116.
Post 3030252 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
BTW, 66% of my trading stash joined the "investment stash" on a paper wallet. I sold the remaining 33% at $120 and requested a withdrawal to try some arbitrage with Bitstamp... The money didn't arrived to my account yet, so after the last rally my arbitraging move isn't looking too good ATM.
I don't understand this move. The best way to arbitrage is to buy bitcoins on Bitstamp and sell them on Gox, doing it the other way around like you did carries a huge amount of risk since you have to wait for the funds to arrive from Gox first. Why did you try it this way?
Well, because I bought back in full between $67 and $105. My trading position was all BTC, so I had to sell on Gox before buying on Bitstamp to sell again on Gox, etc. etc. etc...
Plus, the point here is to see how fast I can move fiat from Gox to Bitstamp in a recurrent way - both fiat and BTC have to move quickly for arbitrage to work. BTC is quick, fiat not so much...
If your fiat arrives at Bitstamp in less than 4 weeks, you should be able to buy there at the very bottom.
And if arrives in less than 2 weeks, you might be able to take advantage of the fake return to bull market.
117.
Post 3034029 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
Once you think you know where things are going, a huge whale will splash in out of nowhere and change everything.
Yeah, this whale driven price trend sucks.
I disagree on the confidence level, I don't see it in the market right now.
On the 19th there was a large rise and then quickly a large fall in the bid sum / ask sum ratio, and yet
the panic buyers kept the price from dropping significantly. Now the ratio hasn't dropped much, but I
don't see significant panic buyer activity ( well, not yet ). Seller pressure is still high right now.
Regarding the bid sum / ask sum ratio, it's important to note that a redistribution of the orders can be misleading.
118.
Post 3036032 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
Once you think you know where things are going, a huge whale will splash in out of nowhere and change everything.
Yeah, this whale driven price trend sucks.
Yeah, I know, right? Totally artificial (as you said a day or so ago). We should just ignore it and buy coins at lower prices.
I may have an answer for you. After looking again at the recent history, I believe there is one smart whale that started the
last rally to 130+, with a whale buy of about 8k BTC that smashed through the 125 resistance level ( up to 126 ).
Other smaller and slower whales followed, and then some panic buyers. The smart whale has already sold at least 4k BTC
around the 130 price, he positioned his sell orders almost one day before starting the rally ( saw this in the ask sum graph ).
This operation ( repeated ) is an efficient way to pump up the price without losing money. As for the final target of the smart whale,
it's to dump big at a higher price IMO. I have no idea what's his final price - at which he would dump big.
The smart whale could be one of you early adopters, with activity in the hundreds in this forum and ( tens of ? ) thousands of coins.
And he would hate to see his MO uncovered. About what to do in order to better adapt to his strategy, I don't know.
The smart whale covers his actions behind normal market movements, he just triggers them a bit sooner and stronger.
119.
Post 3090024 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):
I'm not sure if someone already posted this ( if yes, sorry ), but long term parabolic SAR has flipped
yesterday due to the big drop. Remains to be seen how long it stays down.
120.
Post 3097240 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):
Where is now the $whale who likes to buy cheap coins?
He will show up @ sunday
There was no $ whale, it was a pump and dump operation that drove the price so high.
121.
Post 3097712 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):
Where is now the $whale who likes to buy cheap coins?
He will show up @ sunday
There was no $ whale, it was a pump and dump operation that drove the price so high.
If that would be true, the pumper-slash-dumper would be one broke motherfucker. Volume on the way down so far is just a fraction of what the whale put into the 'pump' part, and we're already getting near the point where it all started. No profit in that.
No, sorry to disappoint, but whoever drove the price up might or might not come back, but pump and dump 't was not.
He was a
BTC whale who sold his coins at the 145 -148 level, panic buyers were so eager to buy them.
He didn't have to dump much, if any, after that. He sure loves those panic buyers.
122.
Post 3146617 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
If there will be no correction drop, they made the right move, but I'm not sure where we are going yet.
Anyway, if there is going to be a drop, this tiny push up has delayed it a bit.
123.
Post 3154762 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
I noticed bitcoinity added localbitcoins and the volatility is insane if true.
How can one buy on Gox and sell on localbitcoins? If it were simple, there shouldn't be such a crazy volatility.
I mean, it looks like profits from arbitrages could reach 30%!
124.
Post 3205933 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Or he took advantage of a local high, because he paid attention to long term charts, like this:
125.
Post 3234187 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
As long as the announcement doesn't include 10M$ extra on the bid sum at Gox, I don't give a damn.
126.
Post 3254494 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Actually, if two months from now, silver will be worth 10% more and BTC 25% less, it's going to be quite profitable for him.
He'll just sell the silver and buy more coins.
127.
Post 3262460 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
People should stop thinking that there are only 41k
BTC on Gox. Just 3 days ago there were 55k
BTC on the ask side and IMO the 'missing' 14k
BTC are still on Gox,
waiting to be dumped at the right price. You'll see them again, probably within a week (some of them sooner), together with their offspring.
128.
Post 3269811 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
A drop is highly probable, but I doubt it will be a large one (larger than 8$) today. The timing would be wrong IMO.
If however a large drop happens today or tomorrow, I'll have to reconsider my analysis of the last month.
129.
Post 3270864 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
During the last 2 days the period of the money flow waves has been of about 10 hours.
Right now we are in a local bottom, and the sellers have already dumped, so for the next few hours the drop shouldn't continue.
Of course, unless a whale panics and dumps. But in about 10 hours from now the next money wave should reach the bottom.
130.
Post 3275131 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
During the last 2 days the period of the money flow waves has been of about 10 hours.
Right now we are in a local bottom, and the sellers have already dumped, so for the next few hours the drop shouldn't continue.
Of course, unless a whale panics and dumps. But in about 10 hours from now the next money wave should reach the bottom.
The drop was a flash in the pan, just like the one on the 15th. But remember that 4 days after the 15th we had the larger drop on the 19th.
EW sub-waves appear to last for about 15 days (for now, because the period depends on amplitude and probably on volume too).
So if the market follows the EW theory, we should see another drop on the 4th October (maybe the 5th if volume stays low).
The big question is how large will that drop be, a limited one like on the 19th September (which would just bring us back to ~132$), or a big one.
131.
Post 3284003 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Did that wall at 141 that I saw when leaving for work get eaten?
Yes it was sold into. But a small recovery is still possible during the next 1 - 2 days, then you might wake up below 129$.
132.
Post 3285722 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
The price would have dropped anyway in 2 - 3 days, but the news of SR seems to trigger a small avalanche of coins.
133.
Post 3286040 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
This is turning into a panic sale. I was confused by the start of this shit, when the local money flow should have started to go up,
strange sells kept the price going down. Then I read the news on the forum and found out why.
134.
Post 3286210 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
If the feds made the connection in 2011, what took them so long to find DPR?
Just in case you read my post, I don't do drugs, never did, never will.
135.
Post 3286342 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Ouch! Had my bids at $136.55 after selling $145
Was out shopping and missed my chance to sell high.
Cant log in to gox [error]
Should I be panicking?
OMFG look at bitstamp!
The market would have dropped in about 2 days anyway. So the result of this panic sale may have similar results.
A drop to 120$ in 2 stages is possible, so you might be able to sell on the rebound with little loss, and buy back sometime later.
BTW, I took a 3% loss on this shit, because I bought at 140$, estimating a small price rise to 144$ till the big drop, so you are not alone.
136.
Post 3286607 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
So far, most of the sales were 'hidden' coins, that didn't show up in the order book.
And right now the bid sum / ask sum ratio points to about 110$, so this is going to be a mother-of-all drops, except after an ATH.
137.
Post 3286715 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Once Yifu the fat face sell his stash, we're going down to $50 lady and gentlement.
Anyone still have his address handy? link us to the blockchain.info ..
Am I the only one amazed that no one on here openly admits to be holding during these drops?
Everyone is always on the profitable side during huge drops. Smaller drops, and during rises, you can see people winning and losing. But the mega April crash, and June, etc. Everyone was "YAY! DOWN!"
Sorry for disappointing you, but as I mentioned before, I took a 3% loss. Had bought at 140$, hoping for a small rise the next day.
I was monitoring the money flow on bitcoincharts, and saw strange sales, when the price should have gone slowly up.
I read the news in the forum, BTW big thank you to the poster, made the connection and I dumped immediately at 137$.
138.
Post 3287323 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
All large drops lasted 2 days or more, and this one should last until the 4th October or later.
IMO that buy wall will be eaten, maybe not soon but it will.
PS. What happen to the buy wall?
139.
Post 3287666 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
funny all the people in this thread bragging about their profits
i bet ya, for the same amount of people with profits in this thread there are people grinding their teeth in the shadows at these posts :p (not me, don't day trade :p)
I have had my share of losses too. I admit them as well (well, at least some of them
).
Oh yeah, me too. I've been screwed more times using Bitcoin than a street whore. That's why my first post about this was: finally I get to win.
Well, good for you! I didn't dare to trade in this volatility because I saw occasionally up to 5 minutes of lag on Gox, too risky for me.
IMO the fall isn't over, it will continue for one or two days, and right now the bid sum / ask sum ratio still points below 115$.
140.
Post 3288708 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
If we hit 110$ once, we can hit that low again. I hope Gox won't lag anymore, so I can trade without worrying about my order being 5 min late.
141.
Post 3288784 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
I don't mean immediately. But there's the potential to drop again tomorrow.
Right now the price has peaked and I'm curious to see how low will the limited drop be.
Should give me a hint about the final bottom.
142.
Post 3289405 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
If we hit 110$ once, we can hit that low again. I hope Gox won't lag anymore, so I can trade without worrying about my order being 5 min late.
thats odd. there was no lag for me (or anyone else?) today. i have executed 14 orders so far over the last 8 hrs
Really? Then I missed some nice action. Bitcoinity intermittently showed Gox as 4 - 5 minutes lag.
Bitcoincharts has been also malfunctioning, which drives me 'half blind'.
143.
Post 3293384 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
BTC has been extremely stable during btctalk's absence. Coincidence?
Yes, as much a coincidence as the SR news with wave A. Strange, but can happen.
144.
Post 3295118 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Yes, good one! LMAO here too!
145.
Post 3298863 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Stop bitching about low volume on Gox, during the next couple of days there will be plenty of volume.
146.
Post 3299098 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
It IS a re-enactment of June, but with lower seller pressure.
147.
Post 3299599 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
I believe the upcoming drop won't last more than 3 - 4 days, and after that we'll see the second sub-wave of wave B (price will go up for a while).
We are still comfortably away from capitulation, when that moment will come I'll post a warning.
148.
Post 3320245 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
Hmm, this new fast trading engine might get tested by the market very soon...
149.
Post 3350329 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
The suckers who bought high are not available for resistance, so this drop goes down a bit faster than usual.
But uber-bulls have nothing to worry yet, there should be a dead cat bounce, and then stability for another 2 - 3 days.
150.
Post 3363450 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
Did anyone see a new post by Chodpaba? It would be nice to see his evaluation of the market,
but he didn't seem to have posted (in the Speculation section) for a while.
151.
Post 3394483 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Only a dumb whale would dump now. We just started a new sub-sub-wave with an overturned drop, so we go up for a while.
The big smart whales will let panic buyers get their coins at 250+.
152.
Post 3395440 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
What worries me the most is Gox is leading the pump atm. China and stamp are reluctant to move forward. Since Goxusd is stuck, this is skewed.
China is moving up again but slowly, for now. I posted the chart that shows the trend in the China wall thread.
153.
Post 3395742 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
No, we go up for about 2 - 3 more days IMO. Well, it depends on volume, if it's really high we can
peak and crash tomorrow, if it's low we can slowly climb for a week, and then crash.
154.
Post 3396440 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Where? I see only 1240.
155.
Post 3397038 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
We need a cool off, price went up too fast, in this sub-sub-sub-wave there should be low volume and price would move slowly.
156.
Post 3405491 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
China good morning. Show us the way, please. We are kind of lost.
On the contrary, China has been constantly lagging behind Gox, only 'synchronizing' on larger price drops.
157.
Post 3409222 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Looks like the 175$ wall will be tested soon. China is ahead this time, dropping hard.
158.
Post 3420631 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
This few days of consolidation couldn't be more normal. Even if I had a crystal ball and knew for sure the price would go past the all-time high within the next two weeks, I still would expect a consolidation during these few days. Simply continuing up at the rate we were going would've been insane. So there's so far zero evidence the bull move of the past few weeks is over. Consolidation is exactly what we'd expect if the run-up is to continue. My guess is we're going up, probably within a week.
No, there are no more sub-sub-waves available for 'consolidation'. The conditions for a large drop will be met in about an hour (maybe more, maybe less, it depends on volume).
159.
Post 3421123 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
No, there are no more sub-sub-waves available for 'consolidation'. The conditions for a large drop will be met in about an hour (maybe more, maybe less, it depends on volume).
care to explain?
Only 2 EW sub-sub-waves were available for 'slow up', and IMO we are at the end of the second, which means a drop.
The conditions for the drop were met on Gox, but volume is very low, and can't drop on such low volume.
China kept buying slowly, delaying the expected drop. Maybe Gox is somehow waiting for China?
160.
Post 3422508 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Only 2 EW sub-sub-waves were available for 'slow up', and IMO we are at the end of the second, which means a drop.
The conditions for the drop were met on Gox, but volume is very low, and can't drop on such low volume.
China kept buying slowly, delaying the expected drop. Maybe Gox is somehow waiting for China?
thx
I was wrong in my recognition of the sub-sub-sub waves, the third and most powerful was yet to come, and nicely it climbed,
especially in China. I should have trusted the theory about it, but to me the panic buyers seemed exhausted on Gox.
Anyway, China led this and I should have looked at their charts more. The sub-sub-sub-waves on Gox were difficult to recognize, and
the drop in market indicators didn't mean in this case the large drop at the end of the sub-sub-wave, but an intermediary drop
between sub-sub-sub-waves 2 and 3. What I am expecting is that once the 3rd sub-sub-sub-wave is depleted, the panic sellers
will see the last chance to sell on the rebound, and that should trigger a large drop, as sub-sub-sub-wave 4. That's my interpretation
of what just happened and might happen soon, but we'll see...
161.
Post 3437218 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Somebody hit me with some bear, please! Not enough bears around here -- this makes me worry.
If the 233$ peak was wave 5, and we saw the 3 down sub-sub-waves, followed by 2 up sub-sub-waves, of which
the second is much larger than the first, then we should see another 3 down sub-sub-waves.
Those new 3 down don't have to look like the previous 3 down, but if they do, we are on a descending trend.
If they look different, then it's possible to resume an uptrend and reach an ATH.
Right now, we already are in the 4th sub-sub-sub-wave of the second sub-sub-wave, so I expect to go down.
But for now the Chinese keep buying and Gox and other exchanges struggle to follow.
Maybe the Chinese will write a new chapter to the EW theory, exceptions to the rules?
162.
Post 3437575 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Somebody hit me with some bear, please! Not enough bears around here -- this makes me worry.
the 233$ peak was wave 5, and we saw the 3 down sub-sub-waves, followed by 2 up sub-sub-waves, of which
the second is much larger than the first, then we
should see another 3 down sub-sub-waves.
Those new 3 down don't have to look like the previous 3 down, but
if they do, we are on a descending trend.
If they look different, then
it's possible to resume an uptrend and reach an ATH.
Right now, we already are in the 4th sub-sub-sub-wave of the second sub-sub-wave, so I expect to go down.
But for now the Chinese keep buying and Gox and other exchanges struggle to follow.
Maybe the Chinese will write a new chapter to the EW theory, exceptions to the rules?
You sure about that?
That's my analysis, after looking at several scenarios. But with bitcoin I can't be truly sure about the future moves of the market.
Just wait a bit, maybe the Chinese will overturn the normal wave pattern. If enough fiat enters their exchanges, and more panic buy follows, it may be possible.
163.
Post 3444034 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Even at the very bottom of capitulation, it is unlikely to go below 100$, so I doubt 60$ will be seen again.
164.
Post 3444830 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
china seems to have already turned around (back up)
That's because there's more support than on Gox. I wonder, if we go up, how bad will Gox struggle to follow China?
165.
Post 3500357 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
Why do we suddenly have these huge walls? We haven't had walls like this in aaaaages.
I sold, correction is coming, i will get my chance to buy back!
good grief...you ARE going to be on again like this aren't you Adam
its going to crash soon! WEeeeeeeeeee
When Adam takes off his uber-bull hat, he makes sense.
166.
Post 3504961 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Gox was struggling to follow the Chinese for some time. Gox was primed to crash, yet it tries to follow
the Chinese in their buying spree, that didn't stop. This is uncharted territory, anything can happen.
167.
Post 3505795 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Oh no, Adam has put his uber-bull hat back!
Now seriously, since there was no crash, this means that China is the beacon, they keep buying.
I expect a sharp rise of the price for a couple of days (how many, unknown, it depends on volume), and then the crash.
168.
Post 3505859 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Oh no, Adam has put his uber-bull hat back!
Now seriously, since there was no crash, this means that China is the beacon, they keep buying.
I expect a sharp rise of the price for a couple of days (how many, unknown, it depends on volume), and then the crash.
Come on man, you're worse than Proudhon..
Tzupy, you have been calling crash since $70. Are you still out, or not happy with 300% profit?
Even China will stop buying at some point. Not today, but that day is coming.
169.
Post 3506126 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Good morning from Europe.
WHAT?
??
Damn!!!!!
The day before yesterday when there was a huge bid wall, I didn't sell anything, and so missed out on a nice retraction. Yesterday I sold some, and the retraction never came! It just continuesd stampeding after a day of sideway. Now I am twitchy about buying back in.
I bought back at a small loss, there is room for growth about 50$ - 100$ IMO.
China is leading strong, although they are climbing too fast now and might have a local crash.
170.
Post 3508981 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
A correction is on the way, the 4th sub-sub-sub-wave of the second sub-sub-wave of the strongest sub-wave of wave 5.
There are now 16.5k coins on the ask side, but most waiting to be sold at higher prices.
171.
Post 3509352 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
A correction is on the way, the 4th sub-sub-sub-wave of the second sub-sub-wave of the strongest sub-wave of wave 5.
There are now 16.5k coins on the ask side, but most waiting to be sold at higher prices.
We all know how your previous analysis went sub sub sub par!
The correction is already happening in China, but nothing yet on Gox or Bitstamp.
172.
Post 3512154 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
A correction is on the way, the 4th sub-sub-sub-wave of the second sub-sub-wave of the strongest sub-wave of wave 5.
There are now 16.5k coins on the ask side, but most waiting to be sold at higher prices.
We all know how your previous analysis went sub sub sub par!
The correction is already happening in China, but nothing yet on Gox or Bitstamp.
This correction was coming, as I mentioned. It was delayed on Gox by a couple of small whales who bought high.
173.
Post 3540519 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
ouch!
Number? Hash? Time? Transactions? Total BTC? Size (kB)?
268861 45cfd7571a... 2013-11-10 16:08:57 469 19461.57057709 247.521
268860 5ca67e7f15... 2013-11-10 15:57:23 371 12132.8603931 187.936
268859 db9fcddda9... 2013-11-10 15:49:20 102 4549.8214365 65.753
19461 BTCget ready!
Do you mean 20k extra coins will get dumped on Gox very soon?
174.
Post 3540585 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
[...]
let the weak hands feed the strong.
Sure, you will be able to buy bitcoins at the same price as 3 weeks ago
lol
its nice to see some bears in here finally.
Adam, take your uber-bull hat off, before it's too late!
175.
Post 3547914 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
The market is clueless, that's why it's relatively predictable. Smart individuals take advantage of this.
176.
Post 3549129 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Trading.i286 shows 17 minutes of lag for Gox, is this a strong ddos?
177.
Post 3551687 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
yes, he's deeply asleep because the two japanese whores exhausted him!
178.
Post 3552069 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
The delay showed right now by trading.i286 is 51 minutes, but I believe it's larger.
That's because I placed a tiny buy order, to test the delay, and after 53 minutes it still didn't show up.
This sucks. I am getting pissed off. Time to rest and wait for return to normal.
179.
Post 3552294 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Any bet about what will happen when gox execute suddenly all orders? ( 11437 at this moment)
Where did you see 11437 pending orders? Please explain, are they market orders?
180.
Post 3552492 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Any bet about what will happen when gox execute suddenly all orders? ( 11437 at this moment)
Where did you see 11437 pending orders? Please explain, are they market orders?
{"result":"success","return":{"lag":146108446062,"lag_secs":146108.446062,"lag_text":"1 day 16 hours 35 minutes","length":"11796"}}
I think that are ALL orders, even "cancel order"
OK, thanks! So not 11437 market orders.
181.
Post 3556497 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
China is dropping, Gox may follow.
182.
Post 3556596 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Bitcoinwisdom stopped working. Someone may be preparing a big move, and wants less trading competition.
183.
Post 3638356 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.25h):
oooops
Yes, the bid sum / ask sum ratio points to the 250$ - 300$ range, that's why I am not buying now.
Possibly missing some 10% profit, but not worth the risk IMO.
184.
Post 3638421 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.25h):
trading.i286.org has been malfunctioning for many hours, anyone knows why?
185.
Post 3713982 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
someone is buying a load of coins, crazy action
Maybe it's just the owner of 850 wall buying from himself
It's possible, trying to reignite a bull market. Problem is, to break 900$, another 6k coins would have to be bought.
186.
Post 3806059 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
5k new coins added on gox
Whale gives dump warning? That would be silly...
187.
Post 3812969 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
He doesnt have to do dump anything. He could sell them off market in 1k chunks for 500 k $.
And then watch the fireworks.
Yes, that's what I would do if I were in his shoes.
188.
Post 3962468 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
Eaten. China is taking a plunge and Gox follows.
189.
Post 3962487 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
One 1,500 coins dump and other smaller, according to trading.i286
190.
Post 3962579 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
Google trends shows a decrease in Chinese interest in bitcoin, larger than the rest of the world, probably incoming fiat is weak.
191.
Post 3975662 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.38h):
How are we supposed to crash with all these buyers, damnit.
Those buyers won't be available to provide support at lower price levels. Let the suckers buy high now, that's good for the bears.
192.
Post 3978633 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.38h):
on mtgox:
sum_bid: 33,276,632 USD | sum_ask: 34,451 BTC | ratio: 965.90 USD/BTC
bid and ask sums are non important. they do not tell anything as they will be pulled and increased when needed.
every piece of information is important
agreed, but bid and ask sums are constantly manipulated, hence the worst indicator. Or the easiest one to fool you
If you check the bid sum / ask sum charts, you'll see that the price has usually been between 1 / 3 to 1 / 2 of the ratio.
This puts the 'target' price right now between 320$ and 480$. And possibly lower once the avalanche of coins starts.
193.
Post 3979520 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.38h):
People who write code are today's rock stars.
edit: and now they're
driving around in Lamborghinis....that's gonna only add to that rep
Not necessarily true, more likely their bosses do that.
194.
Post 3997028 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.39h):
If I were chinese I would buy the BTC, withdraw, and then sell OTC, since there won't be any other ways for getting BTC for chinese people in the future.
if no new money can flow into btcchina, but people can still withdraw money, btcchina is going to near 0. and some luck chinese guy will buy everyone bitcoin really cheap b4 btcchina is forced to close its doors.
this is going to be brutal...
And then they'll dump the coins on Western exchanges. That's going to hurt too...
195.
Post 4492451 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.55h):
the bearishness can you feel it?
Not really, the market is now at only at 1 / 9 of wave C. The real bearishness will be seen in the last 1 / 3 of wave C.
196.
Post 4567866 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.56h):
I am seeing a pattern in these triangles, the angles are very telling on each, they point to $180. We are massively overvalued right now.
Actually, I've been working with some pretty reliable Fibonacci fans whose channels point to Bitstamp hitting $0.00 within the month. Plan accordingly.
sweet i will be able to afford all the bitcoins!
actuly wait no...
i need like 0.0000
No you won't get them ALL, if you wait for them to drop to 0.0001$, because I'll buy 1 million of them at 0.001$, just to be able to
claim that in 2014 I was a huge bitcoin whale. Such a story would be worth 1,000$, even if the bitcoins would be worth 0.0.
197.
Post 4570224 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.56h):
There is an
overstock of coins right now.
It's going to be interesting to find out if overstock are able to hedge against the volatility.
If they are able to, then maybe there's hope for a larger adoption of bitcoin.
If not, and they end up with a significant loss, instead of the small gains they expected, the signal will be bearish.
198.
Post 4570941 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.56h):
There is an
overstock of coins right now.
It's going to be interesting to find out if overstock are able to hedge against the volatility.
If they are able to, then maybe there's hope for a larger adoption of bitcoin.
If not, and they end up with a significant loss, instead of the small gains they expected, the signal will be bearish.
You are aware they are selling their coins, right?
Is the selling instant? Don't they have to transfer the coins, and get the desired price, which may take some time?
In the meantime, during a sell-off, the price could drop 10% and they would end up with a 10% fiat loss.
199.
Post 4571011 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.56h):
This "capitulation" has got absolutely no conviction.
We are nowhere near capitulation.
Give us a rough time then
This perspective is not largely based on time. No estimate within reasonable accuracy.
Well then how can you say we are nowhere near?
By interpreting the charts. When the time will come for the last sub-wave of wave C I'll sure post about it.
It could be 2 - 3 months from now, or 4 - 6 months, depending on the amplitude of the drops and trade volume.
200.
Post 4616238 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.57h):
This chart actually makes me bearish.
The chart shows that the previous bubble didn't fully deflate, it should have bottomed around 30$ - 40$, not 67$.
That's one reason for the current bubble to happen so soon after. Maybe this bubble won't fully deflate either and there will be
another one soon, with an ATH in the 5k$ range, and then the very early adopters will dump millions of coins and crush the price.
201.
Post 4622169 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.57h):
It's stealing Bitcoin's spotlight.
More than that, it's 'stealing' bitcoin's fiat, that supports the current prices.
202.
Post 4642046 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.57h):
the spread between mtgox vs bitstamp is getting larger, more mtgox withdraw problem?
Nothing new on Gox withdrawals, but more players cashing out on Bitstamp.
203.
Post 5051956 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.05h):
This is actually good news
WTF are you smoking?
IT IS good news, for the bears!
The bid sum on MtGox is evaporating quickly, it's going to be a stampede...
204.
Post 5082320 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.06h):
Bitstamp BTC withdrawals suspended:
https://www.bitstamp.net/article/bitcoin-withdraws-suspended/Edit: you beat me by 12 seconds!
205.
Post 5083484 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.06h):
I wonder WHO/WHERE the attack is coming from ?
JP Morgan
MtGox
Putin
China
Fonzie's mum
NSA
Some 14 year old in Rio
Mini Putin (you know he has got one)
A bunch of c.......
I already made a thread on this, link:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=459887.0The only useful answer so far:
A few possibilies:
1. Someone creating FUD to buy cheap coins (probably scammed mtgox first)
2. Banks/NSA try to damage bitcoin (but why would they start with mtgox related txs?)
3. A competitor like Ripple, Nxt or Ethereum
4. Mtgox trying to make it look like a general problem (but I highly doubt that)
You need a lot of well connected nodes to be faster than mgox, btc-e, bistamp, coinbase...
206.
Post 5083555 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.06h):
I'll report directly to you when there is an exchange that I trust sending any form of money to, until then avoid them all.
A Holliday seal of approval? I'll opt in for that, but I am afraid I will possibly not never get to hear back on this matter.
I forgot to accuse one particular shill and downplayer of problems: Andreas Antonopoulos. Only yesterday had I realized he was the same Andreas I always liked to listen to long ago on Let's Talk Bitcoin. Shame what a Bitcoin cultist he bcame, even if he is no less intelligent today.
"Without MtGox, Bitcoin would have never made it"
Who is the shill round here?
Blitz is right on this, without MtGox bitcoin wouldn't have taken off. That MtGox management / staff are still largely incompetent after several years, it's another issue.
207.
Post 5083596 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.06h):
Why is Gox price so low? Because you can't withdraw coins!
Why is stamp so high when you even can't withdraw coins?
Because ppl have more faith in stamp then gox.
What if we see stampBTC for real BTC desperation on the marketplace.
How about goxBTC for stampBTC?
208.
Post 5124543 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.08h):
Total bid sum on Gox is approaching $10 million. Wasn't btc around $100 last time there was that much on the order book?
True, but there were a lot more coins for sale. It's not yet the case. And on Bitstamp the bid side is still impressive.
209.
Post 5178170 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.11h):
Can Gox really afford to remain silent? This is all looks shady as fuck
They created the panic in the first place, I think it is their intention to keep it this way. HIGHLY unethical.
It is in MtGox's best interest to end the panic asap. Their fiat fees took a plunge too.
But Karpeles is too slow / incompetent to understand this.
210.
Post 5182055 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.11h):
...
I'm attacking those of you who make people believe MtGox could have likely lost a 6 digit BTC sum over the malleability issue (because that's what it would take to make them insolvent).
...
Of course they couldn't have lost so many coins, but their PR sucks. Instead of keeping mum, they should have come forward and admit that
a certain amount of coins was scammed from them, probably a 4 digit BTC sum. Bad management such as this can wipe out what reputation was left.
211.
Post 5195952 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.11h):
So why would Stamp and other exchanges rally too? There was no information released regarding them. Stamp already fixed its withdrawals days ago. And IF gox withdrawals are fixed all it means is there are more coins on the market getting dumped into Stamp.
Because of the tighter withdrawal limits.
212.
Post 5252840 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.13h):
I predict that karpeles will be dead within 2 months
Considering how bad he screwed his customers, maybe even sooner. He does not realize that he's maddening a lot of people...
213.
Post 5313790 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
May the price reach this page number at the top of the next bubble.
214.
Post 5314005 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
May the price reach this page number at the top of the next bubble.
I hope not. I don't want to wait that long.
You are funny, but I try to be realistic. The current bubble has to deflate, which may take a few months, then a new (slow at the beginning) bubble will start.
215.
Post 5546043 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
...
Yeah it went down to $102. Get it right guys !
...
Actually, on the 21st February on MtGox (death spiral), it went down to 92$. Speaking of getting it right...
216.
Post 5546116 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
Oh man I'm so pissed right now at this reporter for putting this man and his family in danger. I doubt he really is Satoshi Nakamoto, but whether he is or not there's now a huge target painted on his back because of this reporter. If anything happens to him an angry mob is going to find the author of this article and take out some sweet revenge on him. Maybe even before that happens.
Translation: this article may push Satoshi Nakamoto to cash out a sizeable % of his bitcoins, before destroying the keys for the rest.
And the price would crash again, making my own bitcoins much less valuable.
217.
Post 5546216 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
Oh man I'm so pissed right now at this reporter for putting this man and his family in danger. I doubt he really is Satoshi Nakamoto, but whether he is or not there's now a huge target painted on his back because of this reporter. If anything happens to him an angry mob is going to find the author of this article and take out some sweet revenge on him. Maybe even before that happens.
Translation: this article may push Satoshi Nakamoto to cash out a sizeable % of his bitcoins, before destroying the keys for the rest.
And the price would crash again, making my own bitcoins much less valuable.
Stop trolling you moron, this has nothing to do with the bitcoin price we are talking about human lives here. I'm seriously pissed off so fuck off with your crap.
Look, the Miz4r troll suddenly cares about human lives. Touching...
Of course you are pissed off, you'd have to sell now. Or hold and see your precious coins lose value. Tough call.
218.
Post 5547250 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
some movement on stamp.
Haha, people panicking
Or Satoshi selling, lol
Yup. Satoshi just sold his first 1,000 coins. 999,000 to go.
He doesn't need to sell all 1 million BTC, just about 100k, so he can buy himself a bulletproof manor,
armored cars and bodyguards. Other filthy rich people like Bill Gates and Larry Page live like that.
219.
Post 5989784 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):
You have a point. That might prevent this bubble from fully deflating, just like MtGox did in May - July 2013.
220.
Post 6214134 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down
A bit of clarification needed:
1. unlikely to happen soon.
2. possible selfish miner attack, can be mitigated.
3. unlikely to happen soon.
4. possible in China.
5. quite possible after this rebound runs out of steam.
6. which economy, whole one or just the bitcoin economy (drugs, money laundering, capital control evasion)?
221.
Post 6218884 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
You're more of a bear than my cute avatar
My bear-masked estimates are
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
I see a problem with these guesstimates. A bottom of around 300$ is not really bearish.
And from 300$ within 6 months it's quite possible to go over 1000$.
The really bearish scenario is with a bottom below 200$, then it's going to be difficult to reach above 1000$ in 2014.
222.
Post 6408338 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
why are so many poeple convinced bitcoin will drop?
bears.... they never learn.
Why are so many people convinced bitcoin will raise during the next months?
Bulls ... they never learn.
Joking aside, the bet is not fair to rpietila. Just look at the 1d charts (I've let 1 month of space ahead):
223.
Post 6475786 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
The impending (and almost certain) closure of the bank withdrawal channels of Chinese exchanges will inevitably lead to transfer of some of the coins that are now in their client accounts to the Western exchanges. More coins, no new dollars, can only cause the price in the West to go down. The only question is by how much.
How exactly that will play out seems still uncertain. The Chinese exchanges have been remarkably silent after the last PBoC move, in contrast to the weeks after the late March Caixin leak. One of them at least has said that it will avoid public announcements because it does not want to cause commotion in the market.
I wonder how far they will take this new "PR policy":
1. The Chinese exchanges may give their clients advance warning of the bank withdrawal closure, or the closure will happen only on the May 10 deadline. In that case I expect that there will be a rush by most Chinese clients to sell their bitcoin (which they cannot use for commerce in China, and probably do not believe it ever go to the moon) and withdraw the CNY while they can. Other clients who have some connection to the West may choose to move their bitcoin to Western exchanges and continue trading there. Abitragers, habitual or improvised, will use any CNY still in their accounts to buy cheap coins there and sell them in the West. Then the price will drop in the Chinese exchanges, and the Western ones will follow.
2. The Chinese exchanges will close CNY bank withdrawals before May 10, without advance warning. Then many clients with CNY trapped in their accounts will try to buy bitcoin to move them out. The price of bitcoin in China will probably rise sharply. Arbitragers, insiders, and other clients who have other ways of withdrawing CNY will make handsome profits at the expense of ordinary clients. Arbitrage may temporarily transfer some of that price increase to the West, but that will be counteracted by the pressure of other clients moving bitcoin to the West, even at a loss, to get their money out. Since in the end the net amount of bitcoin in the Chinese exchanges must decrease, the latter effect must predominate, so the price in the West will decouple and fall while it rises in China.
3. The Chinese exchanges may just shut down without any prior warning, or block bitcoin widthdrawals as well; so that both the CNY and bitcons of their clients will be trapped inside, except perhaps for some privileged users or some restricted non-bank channels. This option seems very unlikely, considering what happened to the owners of the GBL exchange.
In any case, I imagine that some Chinese traders who keep most of their bitcoins in private wallets, outside the exchange, may want to sell them, since the withdrawal restrictions may take all the fun & profit out of the bitcoin speculation game. Therfore some of those coins will also find their way to the Western exchanges.
Good analysis, I think along the same lines, but was too lazy to write this down.
The big unknown is how high % of the Chinese bitcoins will be sold on Western exchanges.
If a lot, then we can expect something like 50k+ BTC ask sum on Bitstamp and the bids below 5M$, at the bottom of course.
224.
Post 6748625 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
More fiat on the bid side, yes, but not a lot more.
Combined Bitstamp, BTC-E and Bitfinex have about 20M$. MtGox is dead and can't provide support.
The only thing keeping the price from dropping hard is limited seller pressure, compared with June 2013.
And back then Gox was still the leading exchange and had about 15M$ on the bids.
If there will be a serious Chinese fallout, not FUD and bad news, but coins coming from China en masse, bulls will become corned beef.
225.
Post 6761423 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
My new view of the market:
I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.
I would be very surprised to see flat like you drew those 'lines'.
Historic data say that the market should go down until it finds the real bottom and then rebound.
226.
Post 6816689 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
... Could it have been really phyiscal limits, or was it an agreement among the manufacturers to stop that competition, for their common interest? ...
Real physical and economical limits, TDP had grown until reached a ceiling, and shrinking of process technologies becoming increasingly expensive.
227.
Post 7249127 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Where's the arbitrage? It's still middle of the week. It's ridiculous how inefficient this market is.
Probably bitcoins are bought in China and sold at Bitstamp. The same happened in January with MtGox.
Some insiders expect PBoC FUD soon. It's been quiet for too long.
228.
Post 7255225 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
For whatever it is worth (via Google Translate):
比特币两月狂涨80% 起死回生还是回光返照
Bitcoin two months shot up 80% to revive or supernatural
Sina Finance, 01:12 on June 5, 2014
http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/lczx/20140605/011219315838.shtml [... ]
"Daily Economic News" reporter from the K -line pending Bitcoin Chinese market noticed from early April bitcoin lowest price 2419 yuan / BTC to June 3 up to 4211 yuan / BTC, or nearly 80 percent , yesterday afternoon, 18 point 19 points , bitcoin prices fell slightly to 3975.31 yuan / BTC.
Recently, Apple App shelves and allows the virtual currency Bitcoin Paris opened its first center in the industry have been interpreted as good news Bitcoin .
Bitcoin senior players Songhuan Ping told the " Daily Economic News" reporter , "My view is very simple, well bitcoin domestic development , particularly in the United States, Britain and other places. Law gradually clear , mining costs are increasing rapidly , Bitcoin directly raise the price . "
"Now Exchange , mining machines , payment, consulting and other fields have a lot of competition in these areas if all goes well , there will be a heavyweight domestic companies ." Songhuan Ping said.
However , a senior adviser to the Royal Bank of Canada by Chen into the "Daily Economic News" reporter , said Bitcoin market is still too small, the scale of billions of dollars , a few large easy to raise its price . If there is no volume prices, it is possible pitfalls. "The recent rise is clearly Bitcoin Makers eating short sellers , some of the people who lost a lot of short while before Bitcoin prices also plummeted dealer in the harvest. Bitcoin access to financial markets after more than a casino also black , flicker quite a few retail investors ."
[ ... ]
Summary: Short squeeze finished! Long squeeze is next. There is no new money that has entered the marked!
While I agree with your conclusion based on charts, that translation is so bad that it made me dizzy while trying to understand it.
229.
Post 7277434 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
new low again!
bitcoin is doomed!!!
Adam, please put your uber-bull hat back, your impression of a bear is as bad as Proudhon's.
230.
Post 7277453 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Silly new poll, without a time frame...
231.
Post 7277581 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
600$ broken on Bearstamp!
(buyers withdrew)
232.
Post 7279163 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
What happened to Innocent until proven guilty? How can the government sell personal property until the case is adjudicated ? This is still America?
These coins are the SR stash and forfeited. DPR's personal stash (much larger) won't be sold soon AFAIK.
233.
Post 7289295 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
No, this is worrisome. They should have taken action by now to drop below 48% to reassure the markets.
If they keep growing some miners might decide to sell a large % of their hoarded stash, just to hedge against future large drops.
234.
Post 7297859 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Short term, 1h 30 min and 15 min MACD point to recovery to 600$.
235.
Post 7304472 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Nobody sold part of his btc stash rebought @ sub 400$?
Buy and Hold is ok, but why don't you take profits on the way to a new ath?
BTC is a bumpy road, there was allways a chance to buy back (with a decent profit.
Selling now is not a good advice, but why didn't you sell above 650$?
If you sold between Jan and October 2013 you didn't get a chance to buy back cheaper, it is just an example
Wrong. There were plenty of opportunities to buy back MUCH cheaper. You probably didn't look closely at the charts.
236.
Post 7307134 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
You silly bears!
It's an upward trend.
That remains to be seen. If during the next month the price breaks 700$, then it's an uptrend.
If it breaks 450$, then it's a downtrend. Patience, it will resolve one way or the other.
237.
Post 7309352 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
2985 Bitcoin to be sold and almost 8.000 to be buyed (order book on bitstamp)....
Really can't understand how can some be so idiots to sell at this price... everybody who has at least a little of brain would remove all the sell orders below 650-700. Otherwise will feel like a real idiot (which he is), for selling at this price.
No, about 18k bitcoins to be sold and about 9.4M$ in bids, you are probably seeing just part of the order book.
238.
Post 7309545 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
... There was no reason to go down...
Of course there was a reason to go down, I predicted it on the 10th June just based on charts.
Quoting myself from 10th June:
If the price drops below 450$ then the uptrend is broken and after a weak rebound we'll drop even lower.
To go higher than 700$ would require that the
upcoming correction doesn't drop below 450$ (not below 550$ to be sure).
But many times the markets need an excuse to go down, and now they got some.
239.
Post 7310041 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
...Sure, and you predicted 2 dozen other (often near insane) things that didn't. But that why i consider you one of those idiots i was talking about...
Actually, during the last 6 months I was wrong when I wasn't bearish enough. Like when I thought that the rebound in March may reach 750$ before going down.
You are so funny with your silly posts that I couldn't put you on my Ignore list. But now I did it and won't quote your posts for a while.
240.
Post 7310153 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Meaning that some old coins have been dumped (or at least moved to exchanges). Not so many yet. If we'll see 2x -3x that number, then it will be really bearish.
241.
Post 7311476 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
...no, I mean I don't understand your question... first time I hear of this game !!
Oh boy, you'll have a lot of catching up to do... if you'll want to play: Morrowind, Oblivion, Skyrim, plus expansions and total mods.
242.
Post 7321734 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Double bottom confirmed, huge enormous and juicy glorious pumps incoming, be prepared
Can you show me where´s the doble bottom in the BTC chart?
It's not there, well not yet. The 550$ and 540$ double bottom is slightly bearish. To form a bullish one would require some upward volume from the 556$ local bottom.
243.
Post 7323075 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
So essentially we can say either China has 10x more interest than the rest of the world or the numbers are cooked up if usd is isolated from yuan or rmb. What I care about is money coming out of fiat and into btc.
I am not sure what you mean, but: from all I have read, I am quite convinced that the November rally was entirely due to demand in the Chinese exchanges. Ditto for the December crash and partial recovery, the decline from February to April, the stagnation in May, and the the mini-rally a couple weeks ago. Not sure yet about the current decline, but it seems to have coinided with a new push to cut out the remaining channels of yuan deposit to the exchanges.
I don't know how many coins are still in the hands of Chinese speculators and investors, but, if the markets there were to close and those coins returned to the Western market (which they probably would, since speculation seems to be the last significant utility of bitcoin in China), I am quite convinced that the price would drop to somewhere between 80$ (an estimate of where it would be if China had never entered the game) and 350$ (which it briefly reached after one of the PBoC scares).
As for Mr. Lee's claims: his exchange BTC-China used to have the largest volume in China until the December crash. Since that time it has become insignificant, while Huobi, OKCoin, and the other Nameless Ones became dominant. (Huobi in particular seems to have bumped its volume just when BTC-China suddenly lost theirs). I watched that video and heard the claims, but did not see the evidence. His being elected to the board of the Shrem Karpelès & Friends Foundation, together with Mr. Pierce, did not help convince me.
A few comments: the November 'rally' was the mania phase of the bubble, it would have happened anyway, but several months later.
The Chinese mania could have lasted a bit longer if the PBoC wouldn't have decided to cut the funding to the exchanges.
But the PBoC doesn't want to create a massive bitcoin crash, because of the potential social unrest associated with such a crash.
So for now the Chinese exchanges are in limbo IMO, they can't truly fund another significant uptrend, but don't want to start capitulation yet.
I already expressed my opinion that the closure of Chinese exchanges could drive the price to 100$ or below.
However, they seem to plan a move outside the jurisdiction of the PBoC, which may be a turbulent market period, because
they can easily transfer bitcoins from servers in mainland China, but customers' yuan could be tough to transfer to a new friendlier home.
244.
Post 7323916 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
... Liquidity is going to shit.
Which made the markets more vulnerable to pump and dump schemes.
Blitz, would you mind sharing where did you get the Bitstamp bis sum / ask sum chart from?
On Bitstamp the 4h MACD suggest the correction is over and now a consolidation period should follow, but Huobi may drop a bit further.
245.
Post 7324071 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
246.
Post 7324171 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
It boggles my mind that the trend is like this with the sheer amount of new and large business that have adopted bitcoin lately.
Most of those businesses did not adopt bitcoin at all. They merely agreed to accept
dollars from the sale of bitcoins that people already had, including cheap coins that had been dormant since 2013 or earlier.
Bitpay expansion does little to increase adoption; it chiefly makes it easier and more tempting for long-time investors to sell some of their coins on the open market.
Many people don't understand that there are 2 bitcoin economies: the original SR and like one, and the newer, legitimizing economy using Bitpay.
But why would an early adopter (who bought below 20$) buy back with fiat the bitcoin that he spends today, at a 550$ market price?
The smart thing to do, in order to buy back 1 BTC, would be to sell 4 BTC when a downtrend is obvious and then buy back 5 - 6 BTC (just an example) at a lower price.
247.
Post 7324793 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Guys I have some bad news for short term speculators. I just got back from the future in my time machine and I managed to take a screenshot of 'wisdom.
Nice photochopping of the 3d chart, TERA! You are going to be called a perma-bear again!
Maybe, if after consolidation it breaks downwards, it may look like that.
248.
Post 7346663 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
...Is there such a thing as a reversed cup and handle, specifically?...
masterluc seemed to think so at a point, in his 'Analysis never ends' thread. I commented that it's going to happen only if the Chinese exchanges shut down.
249.
Post 7357887 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
A bullish news for the real bitcoin economy, Blackphone shipping in July:
http://www.tomsguide.com/us/blackphone-release-date,news-19002.html
250.
Post 7387363 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Poll results are crap would you buy 1 eur for 1 eur and 10 cents... ok now you will say btc is not eur... ok than I suggest that US Marshals keep buyin btc on exchanges and keep sellin it to moron bidders for 10% profit on every auction... cause btc they sell are clean and so shiny...
This ... you gave me a good laugh!
251.
Post 7389220 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Why is everything called a "bubble"? A bubble by definition is something that is unnatural, unjustified, and rare; not something something that occurs regularly. The only bubble that has ever occured in Bitcoin was when it went to $32 in 2011. The $15-$32 portion of that might be called a bubble, and wasn't seen again for 2 years.
I usually agree with TERA's posts, but not with this one. IMO a bubble is normal and very common, the mania phase of the bubble is somewhat unnatural, unjustified and rare.
Silver in 2010 - 2011 had a mania phase, of course not as manic as bitcoin.
Had a wave A in 2011 - 2012, wave B in 2012, and now seems to be still in wave C (back to pre-bubble price).
252.
Post 7414452 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
If I were bidding at such a sealed-bid auction, I would try to estimate (a) how much revenue I could get from the item if I got it, and (b) what is the minimum profit that I would be happy with on my investment. Then I would bid for the difference (a) minus (b).
For example, I am currently pessimistic about the chances of the price ever getting much higher than now, and expect a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, if I were to get those bitcoins I would try to sell them right away for the best price, as fast as I could. If the auction were today, I would expect to get maybe 550 USD/BTC average from selling 3000 coins on the exchanges over the next week. Thus, I would bid for 500 USD/BTC to have an expected profit of 150'000$ with an investment of 1'500'000$.
By the same reasoning, someone with a more optimistic outlook may bid higher than market. If he expects BTC to be 10'000 USD next year, then he can bid at 5'000 USD/BTC and still expect to make a nice profit. But if such person existed, he would be buying all coins in the market now, at any price. Obviously the optimists are all out of money now.
I suppose that one can build more sophisticated probabilistic models to find one's optimum bid, given one's expectations about future bitcoin prices. However, one must assume a very broad probability distribution for the other people's bids, so I doubt that one can do much better than the simplistic method above.
There is a timing problem with the 'buy to dump immediately on exchanges' scenario:
The bidding is on the 27th, Online auction period from 6:00 AM EDT to 6:00 PM EDT
30th Winning bidder notified by 5:00 PM EDT
1st July Phase III Deadline for winning bidder to initiate wire transfer
The bitcoins will reach the winner(s) after the wire transfer completes (at least that seems reasonable to me),
so they can only be dumped around the 3rd July. The buyer has to be cautious with respect to market movement 27th June - 3rd July.
253.
Post 7414717 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
There is a timing problem with the 'buy to dump immediately on exchanges' scenario: [ ... ] The buyer has to be cautious with respect to market movement 27th June - 3rd July.
Yes, he must include that forced delay in his estimate of how much money he would get if he got those coins. It is irrelevant for the optimistic bidder, very important for the pessimistic bidder.
That's why the pessimistic bidders are unlikely to win if the market is in a downtrend. The bears should bid like 20% below market price. The bulls (if any) will be willing to hold the bag.
254.
Post 7433115 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
Instead of talking to ShroomsKit maybe I can obtain a Shrooms Kit and have my own crazy visions and feelings about what is behind market movements. What is included in a Shrooms Kit anyway? A bunch of accessories and tools?
You should definitely give it a try
Just mushrooms? I thought it was something stronger, based on this:
255.
Post 7506688 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.55h):
Not that stupid if you consider that altcoins draw their source of dollars from Bitcoin almost exclusively. If Bitcoin shrinks, so do they.
Altcoin holders when seeing the value of 'x-coin' dropping against BTC and BTC also in a downtrend are more likely to sell their x-coin for BTC and then BTC for fiat, increasing the seller pressure.
256.
Post 7542590 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.55h):
It's the 27th, I voted 575$ and so far 65% have been wrong.
257.
Post 7564760 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
Really strange for Huobi. Such dumps have happened pending FUD, but now it's weekend, no FUD should come until Monday.
258.
Post 7578263 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
4h and 1h MACD suggest a moderate dump possible in the next hours.
259.
Post 7597645 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
...
Why would the price increase if some groups of people was able to buy on a cheaper price?
...
Pump now to move the market to a higher support level (if it holds), so when the coins will be transferred from the USMS, sell them for a larger profit?
260.
Post 7599467 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
I guess the pump was based on the fake winning bidder's list, and now it's back to normal.
261.
Post 7622637 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
Looks like Huobi is going to be the first to dump...
262.
Post 7646608 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
@potential buyers, If you are interested to wait until it hits $5000, I have a few thousand BTC for sale. Contact me.
Interesting, rpietila seems to believe that the uptrend is running out of steam.
263.
Post 7647067 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
264.
Post 7653341 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
facebook twins show progress on nasdaq
bidder of btc silk road auction comes forward (big into btc investment)
newegg says it will take btc
kuwait oil (dept of some kind) says use btc to pay for oil
BITCOIN DOES ZIP STAYS AT AROUND $645 usd
One small 12 year old girl with a blog in china says that chinese gov't is gonna ban the sale/mnfg of bitcoin miners
and BTC drops to 400 usd
humans are soooo silly
Searing
This kind of market behaviour suggest we haven't left the bear market yet.
And of course we didn't have a proper capitulation, so for now the market is in limbo.
265.
Post 7653408 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
facebook twins show progress on nasdaq
bidder of btc silk road auction comes forward (big into btc investment)
newegg says it will take btc
kuwait oil (dept of some kind) says use btc to pay for oil
BITCOIN DOES ZIP STAYS AT AROUND $645 usd
One small 12 year old girl with a blog in china says that chinese gov't is gonna ban the sale/mnfg of bitcoin miners
and BTC drops to 400 usd
humans are soooo silly
Searing
This kind of market behaviour suggest we haven't left the bear market yet.
And of course we didn't have a proper capitulation, so for now the market is in limbo.
At what point are you not a bear? $2k, $3k, $5k
Or are you always a bear?
Because you are throwing money away not playing both side unbiasedly.
Being a contrarian is just a self identity thing with you, right?
I'll believe that we are out of the bear market when I'll see a properly defined wave 1.
It's not there yet, the market will have to reach about 800$ for that. And then start corrective wave 2, dropping to about 600$.
266.
Post 7655553 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Sounds like you're getting worried, Jorge.
You bet I am. Didn't Tim Draper mention Brazil explicitly as a country where they expect to find buyers for those 30'000 BTC?
Good point. Draper may find some Brazilians willing to become bagholders.
267.
Post 7658026 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
feels like the resistance we encountered at 680 last week has moved to 660...
Don't you mean last month (not week)? Anyway, BFX total sum of $ swaps has risen from 22M$ to 28M$ during the last month.
268.
Post 7661280 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Monkey is suddenly fearful of an impulsive downward movement.
Perhaps monkeys are in touch with their primitive impulsive instincts than I am. Rationally, I do not see how this thing can fail to take off. Every professional trader in every major financial center must realize at this point, that a 10x, 50x move is all but guarranteed when COIN lists. How can they not be loading up in their personal accounts?
Still, monkey sez: Danger of 640 floor breaking over the next 5 hours.
Over the next 5 hours? I only expected that tomorrow. If it happens, your monkey is a better bear than me.
269.
Post 7664050 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Resistance to 700 keeps getting bigger
The stronger the resistance, the more powerful the breakout
Yes, the wrong way i'm afraid.
The resistance actually isnt growing significantly
He is probably talking about BTC-E, and he seems to be right. Actually ShroomsKit made many observations that uber-bulls ignore.
270.
Post 7671423 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Go Bearstamp!
271.
Post 7671499 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Monkey is suddenly fearful of an impulsive downward movement.
Perhaps monkeys are in touch with their primitive impulsive instincts than I am. Rationally, I do not see how this thing can fail to take off. Every professional trader in every major financial center must realize at this point, that a 10x, 50x move is all but guarranteed when COIN lists. How can they not be loading up in their personal accounts?
Still, monkey sez: Danger of 640 floor breaking over the next 5 hours.
Over the next 5 hours? I only expected that tomorrow. If it happens, your monkey is a better bear than me.
It started yesterday, but it only broke today. And without FUD, at least nothing I heard.
272.
Post 7671640 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
500 should hold for the uptrend to remain in force.
Adam should change the poll to 'will the price be higher than 500$ next week?'.
273.
Post 7672765 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
EBA and General Bitstamp declared the mission search & destroy aka deleverage Bitfinex as official. No hostages will be made!
No sign of that yet, $ swaps still at 28.7M$. And no significant rise in BTC swaps.
274.
Post 7676791 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
...
adam logic: if 1 million poeple buy 12$ worth of bitcoin all at once, bears are DOOMED!
I don't think so. A 12M$ sudden buy spread over all exchanges
may secure the uptrend and repel the fear of capitulation.
Or maybe not: from the 25th May it took a 12M$ increase in $ swaps on BFX to raise above 600$ and sustain this range.
275.
Post 7690380 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
My Birman tomcat has a gut feeling that Chinese bagholders are getting impatient.
276.
Post 7700268 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
i think we could still be in a bear market, but mid-term, think we're still gonna see 700+. maybe 800. then we'll see. but i think we launch soon.
Bear market and reaching 800 soon are incompatible. The market has reached a turning point, has to decide if it's still in wave C or in wave 1, but low volume makes this take longer.
277.
Post 7706328 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
So.... what's the next bad news going to be about?
Some exchange being hacked/closed? China ban part VIII? FBI dumping 100k coins? Gox finally launching midas?
If I were the CEO of a Chinese exchange and the PBoC would shut my business down for good, I'd be very tempted
to take a flight to South America, and have some nice paper wallets in my hand luggage.
278.
Post 7707104 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Was that action on CampBX an API glitch? Or did somebody exploit the trade engine in some way? Pretty sure no one bought it up to $10k. But maybe they wanted to paint the chart that way.
Was only 100 coins.
It was ~ 132 from looking at Wisdom. That's likely well over a million bucks on a 132 coins. And CampBX is now offline.
My guess -- someone found an exploit, bought all the coins on the book with fake USD, then made off with as much as they could from the hot wallet.
That would make sense, if the hackers managed to give themselves plenty of fiat IOUs and there was no one to supervise the withdrawal from the hot wallet (it's Sunday).
279.
Post 7714102 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
280.
Post 7719187 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
so next bubble will be lead by terrorists buying all the coins?
No, by the NSA buying all the available bitcoins, so the terrorists can't get any.
281.
Post 7723633 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
The point is that governments will stamp out crypto, like they got rid of BSCs, if they perceive that crypto is actually going to do what it was intended to do.
Government can never completely eliminate currencies based on decentralized consensus blockchains. They can only make it more difficult to trade this currency for their own currency, and vice versa. If government pushes Bitcoin into a black market currency, it will still exist. In fact, if the war on drugs is anything to judge by, a war on Bitcoin will only make it worth more.
Governments can't fully ban cryptos, I agree, but they can do the next worst thing, cut all funding to exchanges and make common people afraid to hold cryptos.
Until now, bitcoin priced was pumped up by fiat from small investors / speculators. To reach 5k$ bitcoin needs institutional investors, and a war on bitcoin would make this impossible.
So pray that bitcoin will be tolerated by governments (especially USA and EU) in the years to come, or else say hello to double digits.
282.
Post 7731025 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.58h):
Let's see if we can repeat June 12th.
283.
Post 7741991 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.58h):
I suggest Brazilians watching this game use more Xanax, alcohol, whatever it takes.
The alternative would be a rise in suicides, which I strongly disapprove of.
284.
Post 7749390 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.58h):
Small dumps on Huobi. As I said before, Chinese bagholders are getting impatient.
285.
Post 7823156 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.58h):
Cost / Value continues to plummet, as Price slowly inches higher.
its time to buy.
For some reason, Bitstamp believes it's time to dump.
286.
Post 7872693 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):
1k dump on Bistamp. And yet Huobi andd OKcoin seem to be leading down.
287.
Post 7905964 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):
What's with that glitch on Huobi displayed by bitcoinwisdom? Volatility with very little volume?
288.
Post 7925963 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):
...............................
Unless Huobi has some kind of wierd trading features that allow this kind of orders this is very dodgy imo.
Maybe Huobi is trying to implement a Chinese version of Willy the bot?
289.
Post 7954744 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):
3d MACD divergence turned red on all exchanges, for the first time since May.
290.
Post 7985046 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
empowering gave me an idea for a new poll question:
How many bitcoins would JorgeStolfi need to have in order to become a bitcoin
nutter advocate?
291.
Post 8000385 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
The Chinese exchanges dump too, so it's not a local event.
Edit: funny that LTC is being dumped too.
292.
Post 8002739 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
5min MACD suggests a new round of dumping is brewing.
293.
Post 8002905 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
5min MACD suggests a new round of dumping is brewing.
5 minutes later, it started. And now things are getting uglier on OKCoin, which leads the dumps.
294.
Post 8003059 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
OMG THIS IS THE SILK ROAD EVENT!
...
We are on our way to new ATH!
No, not even close. The SR crash was the bottom of wave 2. In both bullish and bearish scenarios the market is far from that.
Many people don't seem to understand that the market is moving much slower now than in 2013.
295.
Post 8003909 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
Am I having even worse problems with my depth graph now or are there only about 30 BTC to be bought until we rebound to 620? This is crazy... and not in the positive way. Why is no one buying?
Probably waiting to see what happens on OKCoin, where it's undecided, will it go down one more time or not?
296.
Post 8004638 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
As others have mentioned there are no buyers.
I think that was pretty clear already for the last month or longer.
Are there still people here who expect us to magically go to 1000+ soon?
I certainly don't.
yes
magically and soon
Don't forget to enlist Gandalf and Zeddicus, and some Chinese wizard would be most helpful too.
About soon, no chance, even in the bullish scenario, which is not yet invalidated.
297.
Post 8004689 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
Looks like we'll test 590$ again. After 2 weeks of boredom, this is refreshing!
298.
Post 8015979 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
I am a hero now. Bow before me, lesser mortals!
*cough* Sorry for that.
As you were...
LOL. Congratulations, but remember that for some uber-bulls you are a perma-bear.
Sorry, couldn't abstain from raining on your parade!
Now seriously, would you post a bearish scenario in your analysis thread?
299.
Post 8067070 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.01h):
That feel when bears can't get thru 575
And when the wall got pulled / eaten, how does it feel?
PS. That was because there was a nice dump on OKCoin, Bitstamp just reacts to China.
300.
Post 8086317 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.01h):
What the heck! Can somebody explain like I'm 5 why Stamp is moving the exact opposite direction than China?
It's not moving in the opposite direction, but it's following China. There's a delay and it looks different on a small scale.
301.
Post 8087892 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.01h):
The people offering USD for swaps are in the btc market. When the price starts rising consistently, they will move their money into btc, and leverage will dry up on Bitfinex. That is the main reason most swap offers are 2 days: if the price skyrockets, they don't want to miss out.
I doubt that, it's more likely they want to be able to catch the bottom.
302.
Post 8099222 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.01h):
For me the pressure down feels like 2011 - long slow slide.
But due to lower seller pressure it's taking a lot longer than in 2011.
303.
Post 8106405 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.01h):
this is such torture
No it's not. The bullish scenario hasn't been invalidated yet. What are you going to say if
this is capitulation and the price drops below 300$. What's worse than torture?
304.
Post 8120166 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
A decent rebound and the bulls shout 'to da moon'. In order for the bullish scenario to live on, the next 48 (maybe 72) hours are critical.
If support at 540$ will be broken and new support found at 450$ or less, the bullish scenario will be invalidated, and we'll have capitulation.
305.
Post 8198951 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
306.
Post 8214973 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
On Bitstamp the bid sum / ask sum ratio stays around 400$, compared with 700$ a month ago.
Just some minor FUD can trigger capitulation. The bulls need a miracle to avoid it.
307.
Post 8247832 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
A possible explanation for the difference between China and Bitstamp could be that insiders are transferring
their profits out of China. If insiders know in advance that PBoC's chopper will fall on Chinese exchanges,
moving their trading funds (in bitcoins) out of China would be a wise move and may cause some fools' rally,
like the one seen on MtGox in February, just before MtGox entered the death spiral.
308.
Post 8310902 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
cashed out my last coins... I think this sucker will still crash even more, maybe I will buy back at 300 or less, or whenever it seems right.
It smells like capitulation, it doesn't yet look like capitulation, and it's taking a long time.
At the current rate of descent, it looks like the bottom of capitulation (despondency) will be reached in about 3 months.
Maybe some new FUD will help accelerate it downwards, so we don't have to wait so long to start a new bubble.
309.
Post 8312415 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
568 this is pretty disastrous... wtf is happening...
Disastrous? Not really, from a TA perspective this still allows for a bullish scenario.
But if during the next 1 - 2 days long term support at 540$ will be broken (and I believe it will), then capitulation is a must.
It will be fun to watch the panic manifested in these forums and this thread.
310.
Post 8312800 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
I am expecting to see a large spike in BDD if support will be broken, price drops to the 420$ - 450$ next support level,
and large holders will send coins to exchanges to sell on the rather strong rebound that will follow. That should result in some weird volatility.
311.
Post 8329655 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Good news, bitstamp chart is working at bitcoincharts again!
I was getting worried that I'll miss important indicators for the unfolding of this nice capitulation.
312.
Post 8329859 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
568 this is pretty disastrous... wtf is happening...
Disastrous? Not really, from a TA perspective this still allows for a bullish scenario.
But if during the next 1 - 2 days
long term support at 540$ will be broken (and I believe it will), then capitulation is a must.
It will be fun to watch the panic manifested in these forums and this thread.
Support broken, bullish scenario invalidated, it's time for a healthy capitulation!
But it will take a couple of months to reach the bottom, so prepare for lots of whining and moaning in this forum.
PS. I got to post on page 8000, cool!
313.
Post 8330071 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
568 this is pretty disastrous... wtf is happening...
Disastrous? Not really, from a TA perspective this still allows for a bullish scenario.
But if during the next 1 - 2 days
long term support at 540$ will be broken (and I believe it will), then capitulation is a must.
It will be fun to watch the panic manifested in these forums and this thread.
Support broken, bullish scenario invalidated, it's time for a healthy capitulation!
But it will take a couple of months to reach the bottom, so prepare for lots of whining and moaning in this forum.
PS. I got to post on page 8000, cool!
So 541 and 539 is the difference between a huge bear market and a huge bull market??
Some time ago I and others warned of a turning point at which the market will choose a bullish or bearish scenario.
It's not just that 540$ support broke, look at the bid sum / ask sum ratio, it dropped down to 230$ on Bitstamp.
There is no bullish recovery from this, just a couple of (possibly strong) rebounds, but for the next couple of months the trend is down.
314.
Post 8330113 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
568 this is pretty disastrous... wtf is happening...
Disastrous? Not really, from a TA perspective this still allows for a bullish scenario.
But if during the next 1 - 2 days
long term support at 540$ will be broken (and I believe it will), then capitulation is a must.
It will be fun to watch the panic manifested in these forums and this thread.
Support broken, bullish scenario invalidated, it's time for a healthy capitulation!
But it will take a couple of months to reach the bottom, so prepare for lots of whining and moaning in this forum.
PS. I got to post on page 8000, cool!
What's your target? <340?
At the very bottom yes, below 340$, but for now support at 420$ - 450$ should hold, followed by a rather strong rebound, that won't
last long, because large holders will understand where the market is going and sell on it.
315.
Post 8330346 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
China is leading this drop, the Chinese bagholders have lost faith and are dumping big even without new FUD.
Must have realized that their digital tulip bulbs won't flourish as desired.
316.
Post 8331645 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Where did fallling and shroomie go? Taking their 4 o'clock nap?
Trollin' taking its tollin'...
Eh. I try, I try.
Doesn't look like we formed a bottom, though. For today, perhaps, but don't think we've seen the end of it.FTFY (just the size). Come on, oda.krell, unleash your inner bear!
317.
Post 8338395 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
...We're deep in bear territory now and we're not even at the "blood in the streets" phase yet.
Can you imagine how these forums will look when we'll reach the "blood in the streets" phase?
It's a couple of months away, and then almost everyone posting will be ashamed to admit holding bitcoins.
318.
Post 8345765 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
What happens when the Americans (and adam) wake up?
I was thinking the same, Adam will have a shitty morning after seeing this. I wonder if / when he'll turn bear...
319.
Post 8349016 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
aaaaand as soon as USA wakes up, china begins dumping round 2. They might start to panic sell, and looking at this whole situation they should.
Not yet, they must break 3100 and then panic sell, but volume is too low right now, maybe later.
320.
Post 8349778 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
aaaaand as soon as USA wakes up, china begins dumping round 2. They might start to panic sell, and looking at this whole situation they should.
Not yet, they must break 3100 and then panic sell, but volume is too low right now, maybe later.
Yeah I think so too. Volume needs to rise, maybe we will see ~480 before the weekend. Keeps the traders fingers excited at least.
And it's broken, let's see if volume picks up and breaks 3000 too.
321.
Post 8349945 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
some support here
perhaps 500 will hold?
I doubt that, it's being tested right now and bids are being pulled. And now it's broken...
322.
Post 8350814 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
wow we went sub 500!
wtf is happening.
why why why are you cashing out!
Adam woke up to the grim reality!
After dreaming of a new ATH, it must be hard...
What is happening is the beginning of capitulation, nothing special like a new ban.
They are not cashing out, just panic selling. They'll buy back at a lower (or higher?) price.
323.
Post 8362568 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
China is dumping again, and Bistamp follows.
324.
Post 8367319 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
And some posters made new threads 'this is the bottom'...
The market will find a bottom and then rebound, of course, it just wasn't yesterday.
325.
Post 8370288 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
...
this on is for the bears, imagine a long squeeze down to 350ish back up to 540, extreme resistance cannot be over come @540, up is no longer an option!!! market immediately plunges 90%.
you got a hardon now dont you
Long squeeze on Bitfinex, maybe but I doubt it will soon drop below 420$ on Bitstamp. The important part is what I bolded.
And no, market won't plunge 90% from 540$, that would mean down to 60$ which is impossible IMO.
PS. If it will drop below 250$ I might get a boner!
326.
Post 8415170 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
Bid sum / ask sum ratio fell on Bitstamp to about 180$.
Either this is a local bottom (with a nice rebound following) or long term support will be broken and all bets are off.
I do expect 450$ to hold, but the Chinese pandas may go into retarded panic mode.
327.
Post 8418819 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
weren't you bears thinking 490-480 was a breaking point which would lead to fast crash to 350?
Not me, I still believe that support should hold, even if it was pierced at 442$ on Bitstamp.
I would be surprised by a fast crash to 350$, and would have to reconsider my analysis.
That crash should come
after the rebound, and could be some 15 - 20 days from now, in my current favorite scenario.
328.
Post 8484367 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
329.
Post 8500256 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
Adam trolling his own thread, disappointing...
Here is a piece of genuine bullish news (not that it matters much now), an article:
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2014-08/21/buying-drugs-on-the-dark-net
330.
Post 8500353 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
Adam trolling his own thread, disappointing...
oh come on... did no one have a lol from that analogy?
Sorry Adam, I don't even understand it: hold on to your butts??? Instead of a lol, it was wtf for me.
And while Bitlicense is pointless for the bottom price, for the next mania phase it might be important.
331.
Post 8571827 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
Patience, just a few more days. Bulls have to exhaust ammo first.
332.
Post 8610207 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
I wonder if support at 440$ will hold for now, or the dumpers will cut through it like a hot knife through butter.
My guesstimated bottom for this round of drops is about 360$, but it will take some time to get there.
333.
Post 8626996 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
334.
Post 8628444 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
...
The current prices are indicating that only the true believers are going to stay into the game.
...
This is very bearish, because bitcoin price needs new bagholders, with plenty of fiat and willing to buy high.
True believers have millions of bitcoins, and a fair amount of fiat, but way to little fiat to pump the price into another mania.
335.
Post 8629930 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
I don't know anyone who owns a single satoshi anymore. All 5 of my friends have sold and won't be back when they saw they were down $60-120/coin, somewhere around $50k in investors. The 2 guys who used to talk to me about btc think I am trying to scam them. My neighbor used btc to get a discount on a new laptop; he bought them literally at the last possible second so that they price would not drop during the time that they were in his address.
There are 3 main classes of btc owners, IMO:
- the majority with less than 5 coins
- the middle with 5-300 coins
- the bigger guys
These drops are not about btc value. They are not about price discovery. It has nothing to do with TA. It is just the big guys taking money from the smaller guys. I have spent 7 months staring at the charts and watching buy/sells scroll buy. Every drop is started by 200, 250, 300, 350 coins market sells, followed by more large sells, then the rest with 1-10 coins trying frantically not to lose money (which of course the always do). The big guys have their buy orders a few percent off the top, buy back in. Rinse and repeat day after day, as the price drops day after day, so the big guys can make their easy profits. And then defend the 7k dump on Bitfinex as natural market movement. And defend the big dump on BTC-e a few days later as a natural market movement. And complain that people refuse to buy the price up for your next dump.
We are not in a bear market. We are in a market where the big guys make more money on dumps than price increases. And dumps are SO much easier.
The smug big guys in this thread like to say we are in accumulation phase. No, we aren't. We are in the "take the newbies' money" stage. They are also the guys who encourage trading, instead of holding. See, they don't make money from you when you only hold your coins, they need you on an exchange. Goldman, etc., are replaced by anyone who holds 1 or 2k coins and can initiate dumps or walls.
Some of the big guys here are talking about $300 coins. Good luck with that, I hope you achieve it. Everyone except you will have sold and left btc. Everyone else will have lost half their money and left the technology for good. You will likely get $50, $25, $10, $1 coins, too. A Pyrrhic victory.
This short term thinking drives the price down, hinders new adoption, and drives out anyone who has adopted recently. Remember that when you see the charts that say btc adoption has stagnated: why would the average person hold coins that have dropped over 20% in the last 2 months and 60% in 9 months, for exactly no reason? Why would a newbie even CONSIDER buying btc when he is guaranteed to lose money?
I am thinking about dropping out of trading myself. I will keep a percentage of my coins in a cold wallet, sell the rest. This crap happening in the market is unbearable. I would rather deal with wallet street than bitcoin markets.
And no, I haven't lost coins trading. That is only because my trades rarely last over an hour.
Um, no. If the big guys (aka whales) would sell a lot we would see much better BTC liquidity and much lower prices. Most whales can afford to wait for the second half of 2016, when they'll dump big.
336.
Post 8630107 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
Um, no. If the big guys (aka whales) would sell a lot we would see much better BTC liquidity and much lower prices. Most whales can afford to wait for the second half of 2016, when they'll dump big.
... yeah dump right before the next block halving ... sounds just like a nasty whale plan huh?
Not before, the next block halving is going to happen during the second half of 2016 and if the stage of the market at that time will be a slow bull market
(which is possible) it will only take another 2 - 3 months to reach mania stage, possibly up to 10k$, before the end of 2016.
But of course whales won't want suckers to believe that they'll be bagholders at 10k$, they'll want suckers to believe the price will soon reach 100k$.
337.
Post 8630661 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
This time Bistamp leads the dumps and China follows, interesting.
338.
Post 8638113 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
4h MACD suggests no drop soon (dissapointing
), but moving first towards 500$. After that, we'll see...
339.
Post 8641429 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
Let's make a new rule in this thread. Let's don't cheer and bring out rocket/moon photos ever time the price rises $5-10. Mmmkay?
I bet this rule would be dropped if the price rises to 510$.
340.
Post 8645016 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
I don't understand why BFX is a bit below Stamp. Since the long squeeze a lot of loaned fiat has reappeared as bids.
On BFX the bid sum / ask sum ratio is about 1200$, while on Stamp only about 300$. I would have expected BFX to be above Stamp somewhat.
341.
Post 8691070 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
we need a new poll we 500 just isnt going to happen in ~32 hours left, simply impossible.
I suggest: 'Is support at 442$ going to hold?'. And I'd vote no.
342.
Post 8725868 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.11h):
we need a new poll we 500 just isnt going to happen in ~32 hours left, simply impossible.
I suggest: '
Is support at 442$ going to hold?'. And I'd vote
no.
I believe that the poll I suggested would have been more useful.
343.
Post 8727316 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.11h):
I wonder if support at 440$ will hold for now, or the dumpers will cut through it like a hot knife through butter.
My guesstimated bottom for this round of drops is about 360$, but it will take some time to get there.
440$ held back then, but now the asks on Bitstamp are a bit higher than in April, when price dropped to 340$.
344.
Post 8736384 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.11h):
'Buttcoin is a peer-to-peer butt. Peer-to-peer means that no central authority issues new butts or tracks butts. These tasks are managed collectively by the network. It’s like a bitcoin, but with butts instead.'
I thought this was fixed once. Why is it still going on?
345.
Post 8751887 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.11h):
346.
Post 8859328 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
It's going to be fun to watch then support at 440$ will be broken.
347.
Post 8872591 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
348.
Post 8873696 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
349.
Post 8874632 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
As low as 100$? I'd love that, but I seriously doubt it's possible. This is not 2011, seller pressure is much lower.
350.
Post 8874730 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
If we go sub 340, I will make THE hardest decision of my life
next week, you will make the hardest decision of your life.
I believe support at 340$ will hold for now, and then it may take longer than a week to break it.
351.
Post 8876658 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
Here is my predictions:
If we go to the 300's, we may go to zero.
If 300 holds, we may not go to zero.
If we go to 0, we may or may not go up again.
Price will almost always be lower than ATH
If we go to 2000, we may go to 1000000, else not.
Medium term means any point in the future, near or distant, or never.
If the Internet disappears, we must revert to one of the many historical networks, or invent another.
If electricity disappears, the universe will also disappear.
If the world as we know it disappears, we will have a world that we don't yet know.
If humanity disappears, none of this will matter.
This is the kind of prediction that could drive you to sell close to the bottom.
352.
Post 8877266 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
Bulls' last line of defense broken, all hope for a near-term bullish scenario crumbled, it's time to capitulate.
353.
Post 8886373 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
It's going to be
fun to watch then support at 440$ will be broken.
I told you it's going to be fun to watch.
IMO this bear market still has 2 major drops in it, and it may last for another 4 - 5 weeks.
354.
Post 8911662 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
snip
I agree that fundamentals are strong.
But the technicals are very bad and even if fundamentals remain strong, prices can go down a lot moreThe fundamentals are strong outside China. But unfortunately most BTC trading is still in China, and as long as the
PBoC's stance on BTC doesn't improve, for the Chinese BTC is a sort of digital tulip bulbs.
355.
Post 8912794 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
356.
Post 8912898 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
Great. The market should respond to this by falling about $2.71
The market may not be aware of the possible future implications, because it just rose ~10$.
357.
Post 8918123 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
did he just give up and dump? what an idiot!
No, he knows he'll be able to buy back lower, even if he'll have to wait a couple of weeks.
358.
Post 8923582 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
snip
The Bitcoin hype will come back when the fiat currencies will show what they truly are : manipulated, inflated and unreliable for store of value
No, the BTC hype will come back when the price will break the ATH, and this may happen around the middle of 2015.
359.
Post 8925155 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
360.
Post 8925192 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
snip
Now that bitcoin is dead, we know for sure that even so, it does not stink. That's progress.
If bitcoin is dead for you now, then in about a month you'll think it stinks.
361.
Post 8927728 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
Bidwall from $280 & ~$370 moved to $398;
BTC800
monkey continues to say it trends down for a few hours (and days)
WTF is monkey?AFAIK it's aminorex's prediction tool (neural network?).
362.
Post 8936839 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
The triangle broke down, but I doubt that it will continue. There is a bigger triangle that will break after several days.
363.
Post 8937766 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
12h MACD suggests upcoming testing (major, I doubt it will break) of resistance at 430$ again.
364.
Post 8942904 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
12h MACD suggests upcoming testing (major, I doubt it will break) of resistance at 430$ again.
Tested and broken, this looks a bit more bullish that expected.
And again the CCMF, to da moon, whatever talk...
And if 5 - 6 days from now it'll start dropping again, the sky will be falling.
365.
Post 8964599 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
The bid sum on Bitstamp reached (for a short time, it recovered a bit) the lowest point of this year, at just above 3 M$.
I noticed a discrepancy between the evolution of bids on Bitstamp and on Chinese exchanges, and I believe that
Chinese coins have been dumped for months. If it's westerners returning profits from China or new coins mined in China
and used for capital transfer, I can't tell, but the effect is the same.
366.
Post 8964821 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
gnu bash vulnerability fear mongering going on /r/bitcoin, be safe do your research.
what does it mean?
It means that exchanges can be hacked (if they weren't already) using this exploit, until they patch the affected systems.
http://arstechnica.com/security/2014/09/bug-in-bash-shell-creates-big-security-hole-on-anything-with-nix-in-it/
367.
Post 8967020 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
368.
Post 8968157 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
...
I don't want to be trolled, i want to keep the thread clean, and flow nicely without interruptions / discussions.
Good that you want to keep it clean, but please correct your typos.
369.
Post 8979487 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
...
if the technical part of Bitcoin stay as it is today, then simply Bitcoin wont survive for 20 years... and this is for sure.
You are bullish, in this case I'll only give it 4 - 5 years.
370.
Post 8984027 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
.....
As an insider i can tell you that JP Morgan pays about 4000$ a month if you provide at least 10 semi quality bearish manipulation posts per day on BCT.
.....
Really, where can I sign? I'm currently doing this (well, not 10 per day
) for free.
371.
Post 8994712 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
...
Since there are bitcoins for sale at 400$, and no one is buying them, the market's opinion is that the chances of "2000$ within 5 years" must be less than that.
...
Um, no. Expecting 2000$ within 5 years is bearish, IMO at the end of 2016 price will surpass 3000$, but that's not the point.
The market "believes" there are cheaper coins on the horizon, and even if someone misses the very bottom he'll have the
opportunity to buy back at the current price (or maybe 500$) for months during the first phase of the next bull market.
372.
Post 8995995 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
373.
Post 9005142 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
Good lord, are we just going to grind down an average of $10 a week until we hit $100? Not panicking, just a serious question here.
sure seems like it...
With low volume maybe, but I doubt it. Volume should pick up soon, and we'll see some big dumps that will test the real bottom.
Shouldn't take more than 3 - 4 weeks from now. If it takes longer, blame hodlers for being stubborn.
374.
Post 9006461 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
Wall moved to 390$, cool!
375.
Post 9006542 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
Wall moved to 390$, cool!
What do these people want?
I can think of 2 things.
1: buy cheap coins2: destroy Bitcoin
I only see dumps, months after month. I don't see them buying back. So i doubt that is the reason.
What other possibility is left other than just simply someone trying to kill Bitcoin?
Bolded my answer. But I'm not dumping now, so I can't say what they want, maybe they are getting desperate.
376.
Post 9006796 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
China started this dump, could there be a link between it and the HK protests?
377.
Post 9006891 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
Stop pushing the price down so far that quick. Honest bear trolls@BCT will get paid less from the "big ones" if it crashes too hard too fast as they won´t be needed any longer. My 11 children rely on JP Morgans money.
LMAO, this a little gem!
But you have a point, once the bear market will be over I think I'll enter hibernation.
378.
Post 9007531 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
If I sense correctly, it seems now real bulls and early adopters are starting to feel fear or at least getting annoyed and moody. What are those walls pushing us down? Are they organic selling or something else?
Wait until support at 340$ will be broken, and then we'll have lots of angry posts.
This seeming break of short term support took me by surprise, I expected a large drop days later, maybe bearishness is spreading.
379.
Post 9008412 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.17h):
My interpretation: when support at 340$ will break, there will be some 15k BTC long squeezed, watch those fireworks.
380.
Post 9008748 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.17h):
i sold everything!
Welcome to the dark side!
381.
Post 9008943 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.17h):
i sold everything!
For finally seeing the truth, I name Adam honorary bear!
382.
Post 9009172 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.17h):
383.
Post 9010365 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.17h):
Oh Adam, you disappoint me... I named you a honorary bear, and you say:
"mass waves of panic sell-offs occurred" and "much panic, the speculation sub-forum was buzzing with talk of doom and gloom"
That was nothing compared with what's coming during the next weeks.
384.
Post 9013990 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.17h):
Last year aoriund this time btc entered the rally
Will history repeat itself?
No chance, after this drop ends and a rebound follows we'll have the biggest drop, which should be scary.
385.
Post 9014166 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.17h):
Last year aoriund this time btc entered the rally
Will history repeat itself?
No chance, after this drop ends and a rebound follows we'll have the biggest drop, which should be scary.
People would have given the same answer last year when the market dropped after SR got taken out
But the SR crash was a totally different situation AND type of crash. The two scenarios have 0 in common.
O really? What is that? People sold and bought back lower... Same shit different story.
I think this is a good entry point, not sure if we already hit the bottom or not, but market looks completely oversold. Don't forget shorts on finex are near ATH
Market looking oversold (and it's not "completely") is normal at this stage, it doesn't mean it won't drop further.
386.
Post 9020344 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.17h):
So now instead of buying on exchanges, the little available fiat is used to buy the Circle stash, sooo bullish.
387.
Post 9026814 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.17h):
388.
Post 9028518 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.17h):
01010011 01110100 01101111 01110000 00100001
Translation: Stop!
389.
Post 9066226 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.18h):
Page 9000, wow! And the best bullish scenario is to have the long term support at 340$ hold for now.
390.
Post 9068771 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.18h):
It's easy to tell this is not THE bottom since 53% of the votes are 'to the moon'.
The bash bug exploits might persuade some stubborn bulls that it's a good idea to reduce their exposure to BTC right now.
If this gets widespread, we could witness a 'death spiral' similar to the one seen on Gox in February.
391.
Post 9069026 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.18h):
Man...these dumps! Where do these coins keep coming from!
2011-2012?
Possible, if they were bought below 20$ the sellers are still making a nice profit.
But they had so much time to sell at 1,000$, then at 800$, 600$, 500$...
392.
Post 9079338 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.19h):
Silk Road, one year on:
http://www.coindesk.com/silk-road-one-year/It reminds how fast the price rose from 1$ in March to 32$ in June 2011 when there was a "killer app" for bitcoin.
393.
Post 9080384 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.19h):
Yikes! I didn't expect it to drop below long term support so soon!?
China is in retarded panic mode, no shit!
394.
Post 9080697 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.19h):
weeee
so by the looks of it 340 should become resistance for at least a month or so?
That's what the theory says, if long term support is broken, it should become major resistance.
But if the rebound is around the corner, this may not apply.
395.
Post 9080714 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.19h):
everything is going to be fine
we'll have cheap coins for years to come after all this.
Nah, just some 6 - 9 months. Of course, if BTC isn't banned in the meantime...
396.
Post 9091313 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.19h):
Tim Draper, the current biggest known BTC bagholder?
He should slap his son silly for making him lose millions.
OTOH if he waits and buys more close to the bottom, that would be wise.
397.
Post 9091511 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.19h):
Tim Draper, the current biggest known BTC bagholder?
He should slap his son silly for making him lose millions.
OTOH if he waits and buys more close to the bottom, that would be wise.
You're forgetting the Winklevoss guys, apparently they have/had 100k BTC
The Winklevii bought below 20$, so by my standards they are not bagholders.
Tim Draper is now about 50% down, and his delusional bid strengthened the bulls' delusion in July.
398.
Post 9091608 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.19h):
Holy shit! I thought it was over for now. I can't believe this!
399.
Post 9091673 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.19h):
brace your self to welcome the old ATH...
You must be bullish...
Suddenly the asks more than doubled on Bitstamp, if this goes on we'll see double digits.
400.
Post 9091941 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
I was expecting to see a 5k ask wall at this market stage, but this I couldn't imagine.
Maybe he knows something really bearish, otherwise it doesn't make sense to me.
401.
Post 9092021 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
I was expecting to see a 5k ask wall at this market stage, but this I couldn't imagine.
Maybe he knows something really bearish, otherwise it doesn't make sense to me.
Hes trying to bring btc down.
For this a 10k wall would have been enough, I fear it's something else.
402.
Post 9092859 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
To Mr Manipulator: You already own huge stash of 30K-40K and create panic over an already bear market in the hope of gaining 2k-3k btc more. You just proved bitcoin is a joke, rigged market and being openly manipulated. Your asset will be more depreciated by your action than your gain in the medium/long term.
PS: Please continue now, hurt is already done and i have to buy but cheaper
Well said, my thoughts too.
403.
Post 9115005 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
...
What I meant is that people who were buying thought that yesterday was a clear sign of reversal, others thought that the 30K wall was a clear attempt of manipulation to buy "cheap" so they bought back fast, others thought it was the last sign before the Cho Cho...
What people seem to ignore or don't understand is that once we reach the bottom, no one will miss buying "cheap", because we will be trading at that level for several weeks before going up.
Between 17th October and 20th December 2011, the price fluctuated between 2$ and 3.5$, with only 2 days above that.
The current bear market seems to last twice as long as the 2001 one, so you should have between 2 and 4 months to buy cheap coins.
404.
Post 9115215 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
...
Lol @ the 270k coin red candle
If you zoom in further you'd think a large part of it was green volume, but if you zoom in to the max, it wasn't.
405.
Post 9116498 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
406.
Post 9116625 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
What I meant is that people who were buying thought that yesterday was a clear sign of reversal, others thought that the 30K wall was a clear attempt of manipulation to buy "cheap" so they bought back fast, others thought it was the last sign before the Cho Cho...
What people seem to ignore or don't understand is that once we reach the bottom, no one will miss buying "cheap", because we will be trading at that level for several weeks before going up.
And you reach that conclusion based on what exactly?
We don't have much precedents to work with, as Bitcoin trading history is only ~4 years old. During that time, 3 major rally/capitulation cycles took place, and we're still in the capitulation part of the of the 3rd one. (There are other ways to parse the trading history, but this one's fairly well accepted.)
I'm mentioning this because any extrapolation from so little data points is of course dubious. Then again, it's the best we have.
So, what do the two completed capitulations look like that we've seen so far:
2013:
bottom 1 = ~$50, the initial post-ATH crash.
bottom 2 = ~$65, about 3 months later.
In between:
extreme volatility. Nothing like a flat bottom that allowed you scoop up "cheap coins" at will. Also, 2nd bottom already 30% higher than the first.
2011:
bottom 1 = ~$2, at the end of the almost straight down, multi month correction
bottom 2 = ~$2, about 1 month after the first.
Maybe that's where you get the idea from that you could scoop up cheap coins for weeks before it goes up again. The only problem - even in the 2011 double bottom, there was extreme volatility in between. Price went from $2 to almost $4 (i.e. +100%), before coming down again.
tl;dr There's not much data to work with, given the short trading history of Bitcoin, but from what we have seen so far, a flat capitulation bottom,
stretched out over weeks, doesn't seem likely.
After a harsh corrective wave A, the bear market of April - July 2013 traded in a relatively narrow range, not with extreme volatility.
It doesn't have to be flat to trade below major resistance levels, and could take 4 - 5 months, not weeks, to break the 680$.
And that's in the bullish scenario, where we already hit THE bottom. In the bearish one it's going to be scary even for bottom fishers.
407.
Post 9140916 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.22h):
Market hasn't been so overbought for 3 months, so there's not much room left.
408.
Post 9143597 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.22h):
409.
Post 9165647 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.22h):
Anyone wants to call how high we go before dump? My guess: 363
Since Bistamp is following OKcoin and they just dumped a bit...
410.
Post 9167097 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.22h):
Or it could be the bear-whale who has more coins to sell and is herding the bulls with his flashy bid wall.
411.
Post 9167972 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.22h):
It's time to test those bid walls.
412.
Post 9172578 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
It's time to test those bid walls.
I´m pretty impressed that so far no one has sold a few into it.
It took a bit longer than I expected, and I had to go to sleep.
Even if this is part of a new uptrend (which is still debatable), corrections still must happen.
413.
Post 9178306 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
414.
Post 9178385 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
Market doesnt seem to care. I hate dealing with time zone differences but I think this is like 4 hours old?
Well, this could mean that bitcoin price is still very far from (much above) an efficient market value (like in 2012).
415.
Post 9183973 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
The market has arrived at a "high noon", will the bulls have the strength to break resistance?
416.
Post 9184132 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
417.
Post 9185716 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
The decisive battle is fought in China, and I have no more bearish news to post...
418.
Post 9185925 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
Fucking ShroomsKit spreading fear and panic and causing the traders to dump.
LOL. He is barking at the wrong tree (Bitstamp), when he should be looking at China.
419.
Post 9186812 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
The order book on HooBoy is massively bearish in direct contrast to BFX and Stamp. It is a significant Xfer of coins from East back to West. This is a very good long term development even though it might kill our rally for a day or twelve month or two.
FTFY
420.
Post 9188891 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
I am disappointed by the pandas, at the critical moment they flinched.
421.
Post 9189360 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
Stamp's bid side is depleted (figuratively speaking). If you look at stamp's bid/ask over the last 24-48 hours, you'll see that a number of big buys correspond to big drops in bid/ask. In other words, Stamp is probably partially responsible that we're going up right now, by traders losing patience and pulling bids from the book to market buy, but now they're out of fuel somewhat.
No, China is responsible for the uptrend, Stamp just followed. As for the "bid depletion", it also happens on BTC-E and BTCChina, but not Huobi.
422.
Post 9196747 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
I can't handle this shit anymore. I'm out. I just sold all my coins. Fuck it.
If you just sold, it's not a bad move, since the market is overbought right now and it may drop a bit. But don't forget to buy back at a local bottom.
423.
Post 9198851 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
Crazy Chinese bulls... Someone can tell me if there is a specific word for Chinese bulls, like "pandas" is for Chinese bears?
424.
Post 9203163 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
ok i'm calling it now, 3666 in 180 business days
yuan or usd?
Yuan is bearish, usd is delusional.
425.
Post 9221392 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
Market needed a correction, this should have come earlier.
426.
Post 9221550 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
Time to change the poll, Adam... Already 71% were wrong about the direction.
427.
Post 9223013 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
Bear trap down to 340 I think
No, if it drops to 340$ it means "launch pad destroyed".
428.
Post 9225899 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
The next hours are important, because another large drop would damage the "launch pad" required
for the push to 450+, with major implications for the next weeks.
429.
Post 9226167 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
Anyone else notice TH1 swaps went down by like 60% in the past 24 hours? What are those?
Tradeable mining contracts.
http://www.coindesk.com/bitfinex-launches-tradable-mining-contracts/
430.
Post 9226223 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
I've never looked at mining swaps where do you see those? Is the exchange related to ghash.io?
431.
Post 9234477 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
Published on January 2, 2014 Poor delusional souls. Take your profits when you can, keep a small chunk on the rare case it goes over $1k again.
you fool! price will go well over 1000$
Keep repeating this Adam, eventually it will become true. But in the bullish scenario it could take over 1 year, in the bearish even longer.
There are no more bull-bots buying with fake fiat, China is not available for a mania phase and new bag-holders will be hard to find.
432.
Post 9239208 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
@JayJuanGee: May your dream come true...
Now seriously, for the price to go to 0 there would need to be a catastrophic news, I have no idea what that could be.
When the Gox press release resulted in a mass panic on BTC-E, the price fell only down to 102$, so there should be something much worse.
433.
Post 9239253 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
I doubt sha256 will be broken anytime soon. Maybe Chinese exchanges getting hacked badly or shut down by the PBoC.
But this wouldn't be in sync with the market, the bad news usually come when the market is primed for a correction (and it's not now).
434.
Post 9239266 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
@PrestonTrader: I voted earlier 390$ for Monday's price.
435.
Post 9252681 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.25h):
I wonder what will happen with the Huobi bid wall, because this correction should test support at 2200.
436.
Post 9280700 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.25h):
437.
Post 9282974 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.25h):
Thanks!
But, of course, now big traders will immediately implement their algorithm, and that will make it ineffective.
Thanks Walsoraj, I'll look into it, although it's not an easy read.
I doubt that it will become ineffective if large traders implement it, I believe it should speed up the market by increasing volume.
438.
Post 9304209 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.25h):
Launch pad got some cracks, but it's not yet over for the bulls, they will have another chance soon.
If they will fail, then the real bear party will start.
439.
Post 9324213 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.26h):
Nice buys on Okcoin, this could be a local bottom.
440.
Post 9326499 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.26h):
Positive divergences in both the hourly RSI and MACD. Combined with the crazily massive OKCoin buying volume, it's time to make up some bull FUD.
Bull FUD in an oxymoron, there can only be bear FUD. I give the bulls about 10 days to recover and break resistance at 420$, if not...
441.
Post 9326727 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.26h):
...
Bull FUD in an oxymoron...
Not to shorting bears it isn't
I don't understand why you got upset. Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt are bears' tools.
Permabulls can only do "up Up UP", "Choo Choo MF", "to da moon". They lack the brainpower to do quality FUD.
442.
Post 9346604 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.27h):
Waiting for the market to regain some bullishness...
443.
Post 9347964 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.27h):
I dont understand, I can see longs with the buys appearing but I don't see any huge sells with the kind of these shorts (+20K BTC), I just don't get it.
On Bitfinex, you can either shortsell and let the system to automatically take care about choosing the swap offer(s) with the lowest interest rate(s) available at the time (and optionally below a manually set interest rate limit) in the background or
you can borrow BTC manually for later use (or return if you change your mind and decide not to sell the borrowed coins), effectively
securing certain amount of coins for short selling on demand (you won't unexpectedly run out of coins to sell in the middle of the action).
A huge amount of unspent swap at high interest rate is dubious.
I guess either somebody tries to trick the legit short sellers to close their positions (due to the increased interest rates and the confusion about the overall long/short landscape), effectively causing or supporting a mini-pump, or somebody is getting ready to push the price down and/or mitigate a suspected mini-pump attempt.
Or it's all just piggy-backing. Somebody started to short and everybody followed until it went too far. May be somebody tried to encourage piggy-backing by borrowing but not spending the swap, just to force-close the resulting shorts later (jump back to no.1).
I am not sure but I am starting to get a little uncomfortable about my opened short position. But I am not panicking, yet.
Thank you sir.
444.
Post 9347990 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.27h):
Waiting for the market to regain some bullishness...
And, who said that it is impossible to herd cats?
Thanks for this: I just witnessed "on the internet" that it is possible to herd cats.
I have another one, with more herded kittens.
445.
Post 9355565 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.27h):
446.
Post 9357672 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.27h):
More satoshi anagrams:
Shamans Iota Took
Mania Toasts Hook
Sonata Hooka Smit
Astonish Oak Atom
Ankh Oasis Tomato
A Satanism Hook To
A Hooka Mason Tits
Considering the amount of greed and fear involved in bitcoin trading, "A Hook To Satanism" seems appropriate.
447.
Post 9368542 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.27h):
Support broken on OKcoin, time to panic?
448.
Post 9369473 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.27h):
449.
Post 9380496 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.27h):
450.
Post 9402037 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
451.
Post 9403210 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
China is leading this round of dumps, nice. I can almost hear them:
CHEEEP...CHEEEP...CHEEEP...COOOINS...
452.
Post 9403778 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
Does anyone really doubt at this point a return to 275$?
Permabulls keep hoping, but what do they know?
The real danger is not finding a new bottom from which a slow bull market can develop, that's normal,
the danger is that too many whales could panic sell below 300$ so the new bull market won't be able to
develop and we could see an extension of wave C and eventually possibly double digits.
453.
Post 9404149 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
Up ~$10 from today's low on stamp.
Trend reversal
Not on this volume. Just a breather/reprieve.
Your irony detector is malfunctioning...
454.
Post 9407044 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
Adam, time to change the poll (Halloween is over anyway). I voted 360$ and it turns out I wasn't bearish enough.
455.
Post 9407622 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
MACD in multiple time frames suggests this drop is slowing down for now, so I'm going to bed.
However the Chinese exchanges have shown a bearish mood lately, so I wouldn't be surprised to see another drop tomorrow.
456.
Post 9414225 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
It's that awkward moment where you realise even
ShroomsKit makes more sense than the permabulls...
(sorry ShroomsKit, still love you
)
Well, I said that a couple of months ago. If he weren't rude his considerations would be taken more seriously.
457.
Post 9415317 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
4h MACD suggests sideways or slow up for the next 24h, after that will come an inflection point.
458.
Post 9415796 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
4h MACD suggests sideways or slow up for the next 24h, after that will come an inflection point.
Is there any reason to use 4h, rather than some other timeframe?
Only that during the last couple of weeks it was a relatively reliable indicator (compared with other time frames).
459.
Post 9422899 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
Finally my transfert got credited on my bitstamp account. Where my cheap coinz?
Wait for the next weekend.
460.
Post 9423160 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
Sometime around spring 2014, I discovered that guys like rpietila are actually the true face of bitcoin the currency (not the technology). About then I started to dislike bitcoin the currency.
I discovered that earlier. He claimed that bitcoin price should reach an astronomical figure by the end of 2013, but sold around 850$ IIRC and then suggested everybody should turn bear.
461.
Post 9423832 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
I miss rpietila. he was funny too.
what happend to him? no more coins?
It seems that he is running some sort of role-playing game, using Monero as the currency.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=819073.0He does not seem to be interested in bitcoin any more.
Interesting... He wants to pimp Monero with his game, until BTC would be replaced by Monero.
The functionality of the game is similar to one of my projects, but rpietila as King, I don't think so...
462.
Post 9423911 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
Did Risto sell his BTC?
I don't know if he did, but I remember a couple of months ago when price was around 550$ he posted an offer to sell off-exchange.
When I highlighted his bearish stance (why would he sell if bitcoin was supposed to reach 5k$ by the end of 2014?) the permabulls dismissed that.
463.
Post 9423945 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
...
Keep doubting. Keep doubting the 5th of October.
You still bullish, Blitz? I agree that it's possible 275$ to hold and form a double bottom, but I find this unlikely. We should know for sure in about a week.
464.
Post 9423977 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
Usually in a descending channel with lowering volume, the drop accelerates after a major support is broken.
465.
Post 9424099 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
...
BTW, If you look at the order book depth deltas, you will see a similar development. Decreasing global asks. On the other hand, bids seem to be regaining.
I saw the bids recover nicely on Bistamp, but most are piling around the 300$ support, expecting testing it and a double bottom.
466.
Post 9427043 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
I did some crystal ball analysis today and came to the conclusion that I should stop buying bitcoin because we probably go to around $100
Earlier today I even thought it would be around 200 but my crystal ball came up with a new number just minutes ago.
Lets hold them coins and only buy new ones at 100
You'll get 3 times more than with current prices!
Careful with the reverse psychology, you may jinx it. I hope it won't drop down to 100$, because it would undermine my future trading profitability.
467.
Post 9433186 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
4h MACD suggests sideways or slow up for the next 24h, after that will come an inflection point.
Is there any reason to use 4h, rather than some other timeframe?
Only that during the last couple of weeks it was a relatively reliable indicator (compared with other time frames).
The inflection point is here. Either start testing major support or form local double bottom and go up in the short term.
468.
Post 9436487 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
4h MACD suggests sideways or slow up for the next 24h, after that will come an inflection point.
Is there any reason to use 4h, rather than some other timeframe?
Only that during the last couple of weeks it was a relatively reliable indicator (compared with other time frames).
The inflection point is here. Either start testing major support or form local double bottom and go up in the short term.
It looks like someone is taking advantage of the inflection point, where the market can be turned one way or another with minimum effort,
and using BTCChina to crash. Volume reported by bitcoincharts is greater than Bitstamp, Bitfinex and BTC-E together, so it could be fake.
469.
Post 9439573 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
Market still undecided...
470.
Post 9444041 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
2014-06-05: 660 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-04-05:
2012-11-05: 10 USD/BTC
2013-11-05: 244 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-11-05:
Should we fit a parabola through those three points, and see what it predicts?
I'd like to see a parabola fit through these 3 points, my brain says it can't be done with a parabola.
More likely to fit a Gaussian distribution.
471.
Post 9445039 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
...
I'd like to see a parabola fit through these 3 points, my brain says it can't be done with a parabola.
More likely to fit a Gaussian distribution.
I had this software opened, so I couldn't resist.
P.S: The green is actually the real thing. And it's scary as f¤ck! (If you want higher prices, that is...)
OK, I thought of a classical parabola function. And no it can't be that bearish as the green line.
PS@podyx: the green line would mean that the upwards potential is rubbish, and I don't think so.
472.
Post 9445988 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
Total sum of active swaps
22,742,445.63 USD
I want to see 30 mil, lets do it.
30 mil and double top at 420$, that would stage the set for a long squeeze. We'll have to wait about 2 - 3 weeks to test this.
473.
Post 9447383 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
2014-06-05: 660 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-04-05:
2012-11-05: 10 USD/BTC
2013-11-05: 244 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-11-05:
Should we fit a parabola through those three points, and see what it predicts?
I'd like to see a parabola fit through these 3 points, my brain says it can't be done with a parabola.
More likely to fit a Gaussian distribution.
A gaussian is just a parabola in log scale. So, here is the result, in linear and log scale:
(Seriously now: these are NOT my predictions. The point of these plots is only to show that the choice of the mathematica model (straight line or parabola, linear or log scale, ...) determines the conclusion about future prices, even before the fitting. In particular, by choosing a straight line, one will necessarily conclude that there "must" be another huge bubble "soon".)
Thank you Mr. Stolfi. However unlikely these seem, if 1 year from now the price will be between 250$ and 300$, this would be a chilling bearish scenario.
474.
Post 9461083 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
Still don't get why people buy drugs online.
What happened to ringing friends, asking for a contact, ringing a dealer & meeting them in a car park or some shit.
Who wants to wait to get their stuff delivered avoid getting shot.
FTFY.
475.
Post 9472543 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.29h):
4h and 15min MACD suggest a dump is coming. It may however just test short term support.
476.
Post 9480751 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
...
Ditto for the May/2014 bubble: a jump from $450 to $600 was quite dramatic, but a jump from 800$ to 950$ would have been just noise.
Please stop referring to the May 2014 price rise as a "bubble". It is part of the deflation pattern of the November 2013 (mania phase of the) bubble.
IMO there are 2 reasons for the May 2014 uptrend (that I called bull trap): the PBoC stopped feeding bad news to the market, so the market lost some
downward momentum and the linear descending channel broke, which was inevitable at some point, otherwise price would have reached 0$ by now.
477.
Post 9481913 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
...
However, the price got from 140$ to 800$ not because of some mysterious "multi-year trend force" pulled it up, but because the Chinese speculators discovered bitcoin and bough it en masse; and it fell from 800$ to the present 350$ not because of some even more mysterious "correction force", but because the Chinese government policies have been driving most of those speculators away. It can't get more obvious than that.
...
The price was already in an obvious uptrend when the Chinese speculators stepped in and pumped it, so instead of a peak of around 600$ in spring 2014,
the peak was around 1200$ in December 2013 (market moved a lot faster up with the Chinese). Events can heavily influence the market, but price affects price.
478.
Post 9482196 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
@JorgeStolfi:
These market movements represent each 2 EW upward sub-sub-waves of wave C. The second one took about 4 times longer, for various reasons.
479.
Post 9482814 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
Another inflection point, and it's looking less bearish that I would like. This may go up to about 380$ during the next days.
480.
Post 9483172 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
it's looking less bearish that I would like.
You actually
want it to go down?
Thinking realistically that it might go down is one thing but wanting it to go down is another.
Obviously you're more concerned about trading than about Bitcoin itself.
Or do you have a reason to dislike or fear Bitcoin?
Tsk. Tsk.
My most probable scenario is still bearish, as long as the market won't be able to build the first sub-wave of wave 1.
To build it the market needs to reach at least 470$, preferably 520$, to ensure the correction that will follow will stop at or above 275$.
If we go up for a while it just takes longer. And Blitz posting funny skeletons won't change my mind, only sustained buying can.
481.
Post 9483426 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
...
Ditto for the May/2014 bubble: a jump from $450 to $600 was quite dramatic, but a jump from 800$ to 950$ would have been just noise.
Please stop referring to the May 2014 price rise as a "bubble". It is part of the deflation pattern of the November 2013 (mania phase of the) bubble.
IMO there are 2 reasons for the May 2014 uptrend (that I called bull trap): the PBoC stopped feeding bad news to the market, so the market lost some
downward momentum and the linear descending channel broke, which was inevitable at some point, otherwise price would have reached 0$ by now.
The third reason could be traders expecting next bubble (8-months were due in July) trying to front-run it.
Yes, they thought THE bottom was in April (I said "no, just look at the volume") and that seemed a good time to buy and hold.
That's why the market wasn't willing to drop (I posted this in the Memespeculation), and a lot of time was wasted with low volume.
The 5th October bottom may have been THE bottom, the volume was there, but it happened faster than I expected, and is somewhat fishy.
482.
Post 9491943 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
New mini pump soon.
483.
Post 9498453 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
I didn't look for a while, was there a 5k dump on OKcoin?
484.
Post 9507020 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
The market is already overbought, so while it may still go up a bit, it's not going to break resistance at 420$. And this means...
485.
Post 9520061 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.30h):
not a bearish post for the last ten pages
Here's one: As I said before, the market will build a double top around 420$. Chinese insiders bought several days ago, and now they are selling the bullish news.
486.
Post 9534086 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
Freakin' hedge fund is pumping and dumping on OKcoin, bleeding minnows dry. Bow to the new masters...
487.
Post 9534713 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
Freakin' hedge fund is pumping and dumping on OKcoin, bleeding minnows dry. Bow to the new masters...
Fucking idiot hedge funds!
I didn't say they are idiots, just that they are bleeding the minnows with their pump and dump. And don't tell me it doesn't look like pump and dump.
I would like to see bitcoin price less dependent on mainland China exchanges, you seem to like the new masters.
488.
Post 9542333 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
Some dumb--- is still paying me .25% daily interest to hold on to fool's gold. The rally died. It was a scam. Everybody lost -- those who are believers who held their longs open and those who bet against it. Interesting.
Not everybody lost, the pump-and-dumper made a nice profit at the expense of everybody else. And he may try to repeat this, until he'll bleed the minnows dry.
Some hodlers seem happy with this manipulator, thinking he's like a loving wife who forgives your affair with a hot blonde.
I think the manipulator is more like a nymphomaniac who leaves you exhausted because you're not man enough for her.
489.
Post 9553372 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
Is bitcoin the mark of the beast? The permabulls make me think it's possible: anyone who does not worship the beast or its image would be killed.
Also: causes all people to receive the mark of the beast in their right hand or in their forehead.
http://arstechnica.com/business/2014/11/man-has-nfc-chips-injected-into-his-hands-to-store-cold-bitcoin-wallet/
490.
Post 9559984 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
...
I'm on Satoshi's payroll. He's not too happy that his baby has been usurped by speculators and petty criminals.
Speculators provide market liquidity. Petty criminals and SR1 were bitcoin's killer app and probably still are. If Satoshi doesn't like this, he should go ahead with another coin.
491.
Post 9562914 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
Everyone waiting for 1 week MACD to turn green. Maybe 1-2 weeks?
Bitfinex & Huobi already have 1st 1week MACD. Tomorrow we will see second bar.
Maybe you meant that the 1d MACD divergence has been green for a week, but the 1w is still red everywhere.
492.
Post 9570493 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
...
No. Notice the huge resistance already to 420? We're going down. You can thank the dumpers for that. They once again killed a rally and scared away new buyers.
The resistance at 420$ comes from October. When it was broken, it became support, and then support broken became resistance again, at least short term.
493.
Post 9572319 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
That finex dump :I was the USMC auction the catalyst?
Ps what the duck is up with BTC-CHINA sudden mega volume and depth this week? Their depth density is up like 400%
Maybe, I expected this dump only some 6 - 8 hours from now, by looking at the MACD.
Bids at BTC-China went up 6x and asks 4x in a short amount of time, first I thought it's fake, but...
494.
Post 9572378 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
After comparing the amplitude of the drop on Bistamp and Chinese exchanges (who care less about the auction), I'd say it was triggered by the auction.
495.
Post 9572465 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
“If you’re going to panic
sell, panic
sell early”
FTFY
496.
Post 9572685 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
Quick Question?
How can they claim to sell assets when the trial has not even started ?
In principle they can't, but maybe DPR made a deal that included forfeiture of the coins.
Edit: dropt beat me to it.
497.
Post 9572758 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
How can they claim to sell assets when the trial has not even started ?
Read the announcement: Ross agreed to the sale.
Yes, I should have read it, DPR agreed to the sale, quoting:
WHEREAS, the Government and Ulbricht agree that, due to the volatile market for bitcoins, the Computer Hardware
Bitcoins risk losing value during the pendency of the forfeiture proceedings;
WHEREAS, the Government and Ulbricht agree that the Computer Hardware Bitcoins are to be liquidated or sold by the
Government before the conclusion of the forfeiture proceedings, with the net proceeds of the sale to be held as
substitute res pending further order of this Court;
498.
Post 9575270 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
Come on folks, if everybody keeps holding his clever post for page 10000, we will never get to page 10000.
In the meantime, someone is deleting posts, page count just regressed.
I suppose people were holding back their meaningful posts for page 10k.
499.
Post 9575741 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
The reaction to the post dumps gave me a good laugh, thank you fellows!
Now please HODL your posts so we can reach 10k! I can't believe I just said HODL...
Edit: Oh no, it's still happening!
500.
Post 9575840 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
Post dumper pressure continues...
Not much left until entering over-deleted zone.
Surely soon he'll run out of delete-able posts, and we'll see a rebound that will not be a DCB.
501.
Post 9575983 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
Feel like we're retesting the 9940 support.
edit: aand it's gone
I'm getting worried, what if there's no significant post rebound and this is a death spiral, going down to 9k?
502.
Post 9581956 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
Operation Onymous made remaining dark markets somewhat safer (about a third of the sized sites were hacker-owned clones):
http://www.coindesk.com/third-sites-seized-operation-onymous-clones/
503.
Post 9582414 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
This shit is going down ! even feds are dumping
Please elaborate, how feds are dumping...?
50,000 seized coins are being auctioned.
How is that dumping?
According to Wall Street Journal which are quoting an FBI official who says that they plan to market dump on BTC-E.
fonzie trolling, what a surprise... No, the feds are auctioning the 50k on behalf of DPR (who still owns them until convicted)
and the US Government (who would own them after getting him convicted), and both believe that the price will take a nose dive.
504.
Post 9583188 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
6k Bidwall @ 1700CNY on Huobi. Not sure if anyone posted that yet.
Support at 1950 CNY is too strong, I doubt it will be broken soon. IMO it's much more likely to test it and rebound, possibly to 2600 CNY.
To break support at 1950 CNY soon would be incredibly bearish.
505.
Post 9586480 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
Volume has dropped a lot lately. A month ago the 4h MACD was a relatively reliable indicator, but the pump-and-dump
we experienced may have sped up the market and maybe 2h MACD could be more useful short term, and it suggests going up tomorrow.
506.
Post 9592004 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
...Those 180'000 BTC were kept away from the market; and part of them, at least, must have been bought by SR customers on the open market. So Ross was obviously accumulating. I would even guess that he had been holding almost all the bitcoins that he got.
...
That's important, DPR was in accumulation mode during 2013, and if now BOTH him and the US gov believe it's time to cash out, then they both expect much lower prices in the near future.
507.
Post 9592658 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
You really think the FBI talked to DPR and discussed with him whether now would be a good time to sell? They sell now because they can, the FBI are no speculators and they certainly didn't ask for DPR's permission first.
Actually they did talk with Ross (not clear on whose initiative) and both agreed to sell. The FBI still cannot sell those coins on their own, it is not yet decided whether they belong to Ross or to SilkRoad. If they belong to Ross, they would have to wait for the verdict on Ross's trial.
Exactly, but probably Miz4r didn't bother to read the document.
As for the silly "as low of a price as possible", of course it doesn't make sense, DPR wants the best possible price (short term).
Probably after looking at the market he decided to average his cash out. If the market will recover soon, he will refrain from selling the other 100k, if not...
.
508.
Post 9593146 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
...
Exactly, this decision to sell the coins is solely from the US government not Ross.
It was a joint decision made in January. Both the US government and Ross agreed that Bitcoin was going to tank.
...and were right.
Yes, they both agreed in January 2014, the question was if DPR had to agree to the sale now, as I thought was sensible, but I stand corrected.
"The United States and Ulbricht agree that the United States may,
in its sole discretion, sell any portion or all of the Computer Hardware Bitcoins,
on a date or dates and in a manner to be determined by the Government."
So the gov believed the price will tank in June and they were right (Draper got bull trapped), the gov (not DPR) believes again the price will tank, guess what...
509.
Post 9593642 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
If the market will recover soon, [ Ross ] will refrain from selling the other 100k, if not...
.
I don't think that Ross has any more control on the matter; the agreement, as I understood, covers the whole 140+ kBTC. The USMS implied that they will auction them all, but they decided to split into three(?) auctions so as not to saturate the market.
Yes, just the gov has control; I had read the document but my brain couldn't register this the first time, it didn't make sense for DPR to give up all control.
Then I realized that he may have been beaten, starved, tortured, threatened, so he'd sign something potentially against his best interests.
The gov could sell the bitcoins close to THE bottom and DPR won't be able to do anything about it; however, it seems the gov sells in a larger
downtrend, close to the top of a rebound (bull trap). The feds might be less dumb than expected.
510.
Post 9593996 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
The market is at an inflection point again. For the bullish scenario to stay believable, support at 370$ must hold and then act like a base for a rally.
If not, this could deflate down to about 320$, then raise to about 380$ (bull trap or good sell point), before going down to find THE bottom.
511.
Post 9594061 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
The market is at an inflection point again. For the bullish scenario to stay believable, support at 370$ must hold and then act like a base for a rally.
If not, this could deflate down to about 320$, then raise to about 380$ (bull trap or good sell point), before going down to find THE bottom.
sounds like someone is blindly regurgitating the bitcoin market analysis article released today lol
http://www.dailytradingprofits.com/2112/bitcoin-market-report-111914/No, I only read that after seeing your link. My analysis comes mainly from MACD observation, coupled with EW.
512.
Post 9594543 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
Found a bearisher scenario than mine (I doubt support at 320$ will be broken soon):
https://www.tradingview.com/v/UH3pISov/
513.
Post 9596894 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
I'm going to sleep, I hope I won't miss the fun. Tomorrow the market should decide, up or down.
514.
Post 9600610 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
I'm going to sleep, I hope I won't miss the fun. Tomorrow the market should decide, up or down.
Tomorrow has come and it's down. If this continues for a couple of days, the bullish scenario gets flushed down the toilet.
515.
Post 9601066 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
this is ladies
This is the new bitcoin slang for going down?
516.
Post 9601534 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
Ouch! If this will be confirmed, the implications could be very bearish.
517.
Post 9601652 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
...
I cant open it, guess some dns issue.
could I get a digested version from someone?
The point is there could be a police investigation at Huobi, if the story is confirmed:
Today, an employee of Huobi BitVC gave out an article, saying he had to unveil the inside news of Huobi trading platform. Meanwhile, he did hope the management of Huobi can learn something from this event. What’s more, on the one hand, he hopes that No personal remarks will be made; on the other hand, he wishes that Huobi management can admit the things he said, or all the recordings will be announced.
the whole management team of Huobi, including Leon Li and Dujun actually know little about Bitcoin, what they have is the worship of Bitcoin, they only want to make money and make 796, OKCOIN and BTCC went bankrupt or even worse, and never thinking about whether their behaviors is helpful for Bitcoin industry or what they did will damage this industry.
518.
Post 9601675 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
This is good, I hope all the Chinese exchanges get shut down finally.
Dumb question but why?
To buy really cheap (possibly double digit) coins?
519.
Post 9601813 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
This is good, I hope all the Chinese exchanges get shut down finally.
Dumb question but why?
To buy really cheap (possibly double digit) coins?
who teh f#ck would sell @double digit?!
The "stupid" traders, if they'll believe it's going to drop even lower?
Currently my analysis points to a bottom at 200$ or just below, if the Chinese exchanges keep operating.
If they will be shut down (which may or may not happen) the ask side would be transferred to Western exchanges and BFX.
The bid side would stay in mainland China until cashed out. The resulting huge imbalance between demand and supply
could eventually drive the price down to below 100$. Hard to believe, even for a bear like me, but.. this is bitcoin.
520.
Post 9601976 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
Typical hodler TA...
521.
Post 9602187 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
Tell our customers to buy, and then... Dump it
FTFY
522.
Post 9602277 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
Ahh!!! It's crashing to levels not seen in a long long time!!!
I'm selling all of my bitcoins!!!
Aaaahhhh!!
Permabull trying reverse psychology, not really working. This is just the second half of a correction, price will rebound.
Don't let yourself fooled by the to-da-mooners, take advantage of the top of that rebound, it should come in a couple of weeks.
523.
Post 9603021 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
Ahh!!! It's crashing to levels not seen in a long long time!!!
I'm selling all of my bitcoins!!!
Aaaahhhh!!
Permabull trying reverse psychology, not really working. This is just the second half of a correction, price will rebound.
Don't let yourself fooled by the to-da-mooners, take advantage of the top of that rebound, it should come in a couple of weeks.
Rebound from where? 350, 320, ..., 225, ...?
Probably from about 320$ in 3 - 4 days, if it unfolds similar (and a bit faster than) the last days of October.
524.
Post 9606717 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
Sell now, buy 2015 Feb.
Or sell on the rebound that will follow this correction, buy after you'll see huge red volume for days, which could be Feb 2015.
BTW, is Blitz still bullish? Less than 2 weeks ago he was posting this:
"Please, just once more cheap coins. Soon."
525.
Post 9607790 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
More dumps in China, Bearstamp what are you waiting for?
526.
Post 9616739 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.33h):
If the market will stay into oversold zone, it's possible to drop below 340$ tomorrow.
527.
Post 9619989 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.34h):
If the market will stay into oversold zone, it's possible to drop below 340$ tomorrow.
Market slowly moving above oversold, but could still drop again. I'm waiting for 12h PSAR flip as indicator of short-term trend reversal.
528.
Post 9620956 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.34h):
If the market will stay into oversold zone, it's possible to drop below 340$ tomorrow.
Market slowly moving above oversold, but could still drop again. I'm waiting for 12h PSAR flip as indicator of short-term trend reversal.
12h PSAR hasn't flipped yet, but 6h did, so very-short-term going up.
529.
Post 9621476 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.34h):
If the market will stay into oversold zone, it's possible to drop below 340$ tomorrow.
Market slowly moving above oversold, but could still drop again. I'm waiting for 12h PSAR flip as indicator of short-term trend reversal.
12h PSAR hasn't flipped yet, but 6h did, so very-short-term going up.
Dumps in China, why?
530.
Post 9621899 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.34h):
Someone touched a trendline...
Inappropriately.
What? I didn't write this, please stop misquoting me.
531.
Post 9625719 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.34h):
Bullish action lame, bears retake initiative, market remains in the oversold zone, and drifting lower.
532.
Post 9630422 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.34h):
While the market is still undecided, a new ATH in wall thread posts has been reached. To-da-moon (just for posts, I mean...)!
EDIR: wtf, the damn post dumpers have pushed back my post to page 9999...Grrrrr
533.
Post 9631989 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.34h):
So sad... Major resistance at 10k posts... every time someone starts a pump, the dumpers are there waiting to spoil the fun...
534.
Post 9632341 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.34h):
10k again, how long until degraded to 9998?
In the meantime the market is stable and going slowly up very-short-term.
535.
Post 9634628 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.34h):
That's it, I can't stand this anymore since I tried and couldn't get a post on page 10k, I capitulate and will dump some of my own.
536.
Post 9640200 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.34h):
537.
Post 9641072 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
...
time to short
teheheheheheheeee
This might go up to 420$, if Bitstamp follows China, so right now it may not be a good time to short.
538.
Post 9642690 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
In short time frames the market is heavily overbought and with a bearish divergence in MACD, so for now there is not much room up.
Volume is also decreasing. But after the consolidation it may reach 420$ during the next days.
539.
Post 9644588 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
In short time frames the market is heavily overbought and with a bearish divergence in MACD, so for now there is not much room up.
Volume is also decreasing. But after the consolidation it may reach 420$ during the next days.
What did you expect, the bull fest to last forever? The market needs corrections, and maybe 420$ next days.
I found it strange that 12h PSAR didn't flip from this mini rally.
540.
Post 9650599 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
Oops... who spilled the price?
(Hint: the Chinese)
541.
Post 9650754 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
Oops... who spilled the price?
(Hint: the Chinese)
Huobi, you made my day!
542.
Post 9652258 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
China has broken through support levels, this baby isn't going up again soon.
543.
Post 9652641 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
Tzupy is right.
Podyx welcome to ignore list
No tzupy is short. Big difference.
No Tzupy is not (leveraged) short, but sold just when the dumps started in China.
544.
Post 9652781 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
...
and when do you plan to buy back?
First I wait for bitcoincharts to work again, then I'll wait for this unexpected downtrend to resolve somehow.
I was lucky to look at China, while the market still looked bullish and I previously thought it might reach 420$.
I suspect the hedge fund is now pumping and dumping in China and makes the market look more bullish than "normal".
545.
Post 9660344 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
Smells like a big pile of steaming bullshit to me
No bullshit, the CEO of Kraken is the CEO of Payward, which was selected to assist Kobayashi, quoting:
Upon obtaining approval from the Tokyo District Court, as of November 26, 2014,
I decided on Payward Japan K.K., which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Payward.
Inc. (“Payward”), as the supporting company and entered into the “Agreement
Concerning Support, etc. of Bankruptcy Proceedings”, because the Payward group
was considered to be the most suitable among the candidates.
In addition, as stated above, the agreement stipulates that the Payward group will
support the bankruptcy proceedings of the bankrupt entity. Payward will not
assume the business of the bankrupt entity.
Payward (CEO and Co-founder: Jesse Powell) is a corporation established on July
28, 2011 in the state of Delaware. It has outlets in the United States, Canada, the
United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Singapore and Japan, and operates the bitcoin
exchange, Kraken, with users from around the world as its clients.
546.
Post 9661294 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
bulls are praying that tim draper buys them all again.
He is
joining a syndicate this time. So, probably, he does not intend to buy even a whole lot of 10'000 BTC.
He is probably not buying, but uses this for damage control. If he would stay out of the auction at currently much lower prices, he'd send a bearish signal.
547.
Post 9661469 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
Here's some nice flowers and kittens. For the ladies
Not only for the ladies, they are adorable, thank you!
548.
Post 9666569 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
...
so they already had bitcoin 250 million years ago? ^^
Even if they had something very similar, they must have named it differently.
The mass extinction that happened some 250 million years ago would have wiped out any civilization.
Ours only took 1 - 2 million years from ape-like stone-throwing to today's techno-toys, which for a primitive look like magic.
549.
Post 9667182 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
...
There won't be any more bubbles to the degree we've seen in the past.
Don't underestimate exchange operator dishonesty. We'll probably see some Markus and Willy clones at work, if they are not already...in China.
550.
Post 9670661 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.35h):
A pump is possible later today or tomorrow.
PS. bitcoincharts is working again up to date for Bitstamp and OKcoin.
551.
Post 9682895 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
A pump is possible later today or tomorrow.
PS. bitcoincharts is working again up to date for Bitstamp and OKcoin.
Pump just happened, but there was a small dump before it.
And now of course, the permabulls started the moontalk, so no room left for real TA.
552.
Post 9684269 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
If we have Willy, we don't need Joe.
And Willy MK II is coming. He may already be here.
At this stage it was Markus not yet Willy. And a Chinese clone may be at work.
553.
Post 9689936 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
Bearish divergence in 15 min MACD. To confirm it, more dumps needed in a couple of hours and down to 360$ tomorrow.
554.
Post 9693974 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
Bitcoin days destroyed spike, similar to the one in June:
555.
Post 9700977 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
556.
Post 9709835 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
Triangle starts to break down.
557.
Post 9709940 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
Triangle starts to break down.
The most bullish indicator.
Then why don't you go leveraged long?
558.
Post 9726590 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
Time for more China dumps?
559.
Post 9726996 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
560.
Post 9736342 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
China dumps gaining momentum...
561.
Post 9737175 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
China dumps gaining momentum...
And Bistamp follows, how nice. I just had lunch, so I missed the moment of the 5k dump, but it still looks beautifully... bearish.
562.
Post 9738778 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
The US Marshals may not sell all 50k BTC, if the offers will be too low:
5) Is there a reserve price for this auction?
The United States Marshals Service reserves the right to sell some, all or none of the bitcoins for any reason. There is no disclosed reserve price for this auction.
563.
Post 9741851 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
my bet is all coins sold for atleast 450
i'm thinking 400 was top bid on a few of the blocks the rest are 350+
hopefully we get some info about this in the coming days.
i dont think we will...
we will have to look to the market's movement for answers, 10$ says market stays
flat as fuck for 10 days
I don't think so, there is a larger triangle that will break in a couple of days.
As for the auction, I believe most bids should have been around 300$ and lower and the gov may not have sold all now.
564.
Post 9749022 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.37h):
A bearish analysis similar to mine on tradingview:
https://www.tradingview.com/v/BuUgWFHb/
565.
Post 9749816 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.37h):
Question... The Winklevoss twins say that Bicoins will be worth greater than $100,000... but they decided not to bid on coins they could arguably get below market. Why?
Why buy now? Wait 1 - 2 months and buy then at much lower prices and with little slippage due to huge volume.
566.
Post 9750574 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.37h):
the next 5 seconds are unbelievably critical!!!
Did you mean "the next 5 hours"?
567.
Post 9766013 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.37h):
568.
Post 9776539 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.38h):
Wow bears
This is all you can do?
Fucking embarrassing...
Haha
10 dollar drop, BTC is dead lol
This is just the beginning.
569.
Post 9780889 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.38h):
The fed transactions may have made an impression in BDD too. If not, then could be more early adopters cashing out.
570.
Post 9781127 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.38h):
And it didn't take much red volume to break support, I wonder what will happen with large volume.
571.
Post 9781172 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.38h):
And it didn't take much red volume to break support, I wonder what will happen with large volume.
something tells me you aren't thinking of a big fat green dildo
I do expect to see some green dildos after hitting support at lower levels, maybe like 320$. But that won't last long, testing 275$ is a must now.
572.
Post 9781269 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.38h):
You can't save a fish from water, nor a hodler from missing huge profits. Anyway:
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bears-win-bitcoin-price-battle/
573.
Post 9781570 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.38h):
Maybe some more thoughts on averaging down: To speculate, we all have some hypothesis that prices will unfold in some manner. Of course you could anticipate that the price will likely move up now, but if it doesn't move up now, then it has to move up after it goes down to some support of your liking. So in that context, averaging down makes sense of course, assuming your hypothesis is close to reality.
But the real danger with averaging down is that the hypothesis begins to change and even though the original hypothesis may have already been falsified by reality, a human is prone to modify it to suit himself to avoid having to realize a loss, or even a gain if it isn't what was hoped for.
Getting out of the market when you've been proven wrong is necessary if you want to preserve your capital, and it gives you a chance to form a new opinion.
Changed your mind?
"Please, just once more cheap coins. Soon."
574.
Post 9781633 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.38h):
Is this where big money is secretly gobbling up all the cheap coins as i have been promised for about a year now?
Is Wallstreet still dying to get in? For someone who can't get wait to get in they sure wait a long time.
Not yet, maybe at 200$. Just wait...
575.
Post 9783891 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.38h):
5m MACD of Chinese exchanges suggests another drop is possible soon.
576.
Post 9826886 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
577.
Post 9828303 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
The "adoption" is actually early adopters spending their bitcoins and increasing bitcoin liquidity on the exchanges, resulting in more seller pressure and lower prices.
I find quit likely that 1 - 2 months from now the ask sum on exchanges to almost double. Bears rejoice over increased "adoption".
578.
Post 9828444 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
...
Adoption or not, you're also here for a reason. The same reason we are all here for. Me you, and even that Lambtroll who I falsely thought he got away, because everybody got him on ignore!
Come on Tzupy, say the reason...
SAY IT!
I'm "here" because I believe there will be a new big bubble in the second half of 2016, and I hope to sell all my coins close to that top, for a massive fiat profit.
579.
Post 9829757 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
The is a bearish divergence in 1h MACD, and 4h MACD is still negative, while its divergence may flip to red soon.
A triangle is going to break soon, but there is a bit of upward momentum, so I'm not sure. But the next 6h are locally critical.
580.
Post 9838643 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
...
I thought we'd see a pump now. Kinda thinking theyll drop that sunday or early monday est time.
The slow uptrend is still on, and possibly tomorrow will cross the 4h MACD, and maybe then you'll get your pump.
581.
Post 9838885 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
...
I thought we'd see a pump now. Kinda thinking theyll drop that sunday or early monday est time.
The slow uptrend is still on, and possibly tomorrow will cross the 4h MACD, and maybe then you'll get your pump.
Are my eyes deceiving me Tzupy or did you just predict an upwards price movement?!
I just said that a pump is possible, doesn't mean I believe in a sustained uptrend, at least not yet.
And if the pump fails to gain momentum, the dumps will start.
582.
Post 9841638 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
Next 24 hours are extremely critical.
I expect a dramatic price drop to at least $315.
But hey, don't listen to me. I usually get everything wrong.
You'd better trade the opposite and make profit.
12h PSAR flipped to bullish and if 24h flips too tomorrow then there will be several days of 370$ - 380$.
If the uptrend won't be confirmed, a triangle should form and later break down with big volume.
583.
Post 9850040 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
Next 24 hours are extremely critical.
I expect a dramatic price drop to at least $315.
But hey, don't listen to me. I usually get everything wrong.
You'd better trade the opposite and make profit.
Well, here we go!
Glad that I was already short
Market look has changed a lot in 24h. Remains to be seen how hard the crash will be.
Did you take a look at my latest in masterluc's thread?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.2300
584.
Post 9850549 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
This dump started on Bitstamp, not in China, so maybe Chinese traders think this announcement was bullish.
585.
Post 9850589 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
Why would anyone dump just after the MS announcement and right before the money hits the exchanges?
Because the bubble hasn't fully deflated yet?
586.
Post 9850768 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
This dump started on Bitstamp, not in China, so maybe Chinese traders think this announcement was bullish.
Oddly enough, Huobi is very bearish on the orderbook. Already 5K BTC to reach the 24 hour high of 2183! Thats bad.
Remember that OKCoin/BTCChina orderbooks are mostly bogus. Huobi is not, at least not to the same degree.
I wasnt very convinced this drop was a big deal until seeing that steep mountain of asks on Huobi TBH.
On Bitstamp the dumps came mostly from asks that were added the last 2 days but probably gave up waiting for a pump. Let's see if Huobi follows the same pattern...
587.
Post 9851044 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
588.
Post 9855954 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
FUCK YOU BEARS
If you look like this, I'm interested to meet you...
589.
Post 9856024 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
FUCK YOU BEARS
If you look like this, I'm interested to meet you...
___________________________________________________________
Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearishSo how do you explain your sig?
Sorry, don't understand your question. What has my sig to do with the cute she-bear I jokingly posted?
The sig idea came from an argument with oda.krell. To me it means that sometimes uber-bullishness (with silly overbought indicators)
is a good time to sell / short, or that a short term bullish development means that finding THE bottom will last longer.
590.
Post 9859992 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
Not a single word about LTC, how it's going down and how apparently it wants to take BTC with it?
Seriously now, is was just me expecting a decoupling from LTC and some transients along?
same goes for Litecoin, in fact investing in Litecoin is 10X riskier, it is insane but I follow the Risk/Reward rule, the riskier the investment can be the bigger the reward usually is.... see most of you are not objective , you are just a bunch of blind investors.
If you invest in Litecoin now you may be disappointed short term. Litecoin inflation is high, comparable with bitcoin's in 2011.
So far, due to lack of seller pressure and a pump, bitcoin has (temporarily?) recovered, but I doubt litecoin will do the same.
In 2011 bitcoin dropped from 32$ to 2$, now litecoin may
drop from 48$ to 3$ - 4$ if it will experience capitulation.
I see capitulation being ~$5-$7.
But yes I see LTC going down in the shorter term but then rebounding upwards near the end of the next Bitcoin rally.
My LTC prediction from 2 months ago just got confirmed (below 4$).
But I am afraid I wasn't bearish enough on LTC, it may drop below 3$.
My LTC prediction from August just got confirmed (below 3$).
591.
Post 9860311 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.39h):
Volume in China is down, as usual for these hours, I think they are asleep.
OTOH, where can I see some ripple charts? You know, with market indicators that make bitcoin price relatively predictable?
592.
Post 9870008 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.40h):
Meanwhile, Shroomsy's preferred asset is still in a 3 year bear market and on the verge of making new lows.
If you are talking about silver, it still seems to be in wave C, but that could get truncated.
Price is now similar to 2009, to go up all it needs is increased demand and maybe a shiny Markus & Willy bot.
593.
Post 9878163 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.40h):
Maybe Ripple labs have unleashed a Ripple-Markus. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
594.
Post 9881852 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.40h):
I have a question that I posted in the Service Discussion Bitfinex thread but got no answer. Maybe someone here can help me?
Can I, with an unverified account, deposit bitcoin, trade with leverage and withdraw bitcoin to / from Bitfinex? Thank you.
595.
Post 9881907 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.40h):
I have a question that I posted in the Service Discussion Bitfinex thread but got no answer. Maybe someone here can help me?
Can I, with an unverified account, deposit bitcoin, trade with leverage and withdraw bitcoin to / from Bitfinex? Thank you.
Yes. Verification is required only to interact with the banks.
Good to know, thank you.
596.
Post 9882210 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.40h):
...
I'm trying to figure out how introducing of shorting have changed the Bitcoin market. My guess is that leveraged trading should decrease amplitude of bubbles to the proportion of average leverage. So if most traders would go short/long 20:1,
then bubbles will be 20 times smaller.
IMO if most traders would go 20:1 leveraged, most traders would go bankrupt and then price would collapse.
597.
Post 9908172 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.40h):
he sounds pretty desperate. I guess he doesnt have much faith in the USA corrective system and facilities.
and no, I am not terrified, but I would like to know what happened to goat and other troll posters from this thread? their posts are nowhere to be found.
Many posts in this thread have been deleted around the 10k posts mark, and also earlier. Fearing that those could have been used as evidence?
As for 2 years of jail humbling a guy, I don't think so. Just makes him bitter and revengeful, possibly more cautious.
598.
Post 9913098 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.40h):
Why is no one talking about this major pump!/?
And here I was about to open a massive leveraged short.
That was close.
Chinese traders buying on 4h MACD crossing, same happened in November.
599.
Post 9914423 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.40h):
Go Bearstamp!
600.
Post 9914592 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.40h):
Someone willing to bet that XRP will collapse this week?
Wait for the weekend, XRP should drop like a rock.
601.
Post 9916290 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.40h):
I don't like the market movement.
I went margin short because the price *must* go to at least 270.
Because my crystal ball said so.
My most probable count (based on Bistamp charts) says that the market should test suport at 305$ within 3 days.
But China, especially BTCchina, looks more bullish. So I just wait in fiat for this to take a clear path one way or another.
602.
Post 9929178 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.41h):
Much volume, very panic buys, many FOMO. wow.
That increase of the volume is crazy. I think that the volume has a huge impact but I assume that it's just a small pump following by a dump in the next few days / weeks...
Volume? I don't see volume anywhere.
What exchange are you guys looking at?
following by a dump in the next few days / weeks...
Make that minutes
Not so soon. The PSAR and BB suggest a dump can start maybe tomorrow (not next minutes), and the market has slowed down. It looks like a local peak though.
603.
Post 9929339 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.41h):
Not so soon. The PSAR and BB suggest a dump can start maybe tomorrow (not next minutes), and the market has slowed down. It looks like a local peak though.
PSAR and BB? where do you find those indicators? I only look at bitcoinwisdom.
The 6h PSAR (parabolic stop and reverse) has been a relatively reliable indicator for the last 2 months.
It is yet not close to flipping (except a "noise" caused by the 2k dump). Also, the price evolves still close to the upper Bollinger band.
604.
Post 9929500 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.41h):
.@Tzupy: How heavily do you factor TA into your trading? Do you trade based on TA exclusively, do you factor in news, or do you use it to confirm gut feel? Serious question.
During the last months, bullish news have provided (somehow unexpected) spikes and good sell points, if I was holding BTC at that time and was awake.
There has been a surprising lack of bad news except the feds' SR auctions, I hope some are still in the pipeline.
My gut feel is usually to sell too early, so I use TA to control my desire to lock in fiat profits.
605.
Post 9934684 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.41h):
6h PSAR flipped overnight on BTCchina, and is about to flip on Bitstamp too. IMO we'll have a couple of days of downtrend.
606.
Post 9936885 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.41h):
6h PSAR flipped overnight on BTCchina, and is about to flip on Bitstamp too. IMO we'll have a couple of days of downtrend.
You have been warned earlier today. Now the question is: will support at 305$ hold or not?
607.
Post 9943472 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.41h):
New significant spike in BDD today.
608.
Post 9982609 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.42h):
1d PSAR flipped to bearish on both BTCchina and Bitfinex.
609.
Post 9987249 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.42h):
I wonder if his students know about his little pastime.
They surely do, I posted my opinions on twitter and on my homepage.
But but they have their own brains and won't care about my opinion anyway. It is a safe bet that some of them are involved in crypto, possibly creating their own altcoins.
This past semester I got assigned a lab course where all the students were supposed to develop one project collaboratively. On the first day I suggested a few possible projects, including an
online exchange platform that could be used for stocks, currencies -- or bitcoin. But they opted for a twitter-like system instead. And only 6 students signed up for the class (perhaps because they knew that I would expect each one of them to actually write some code).
Interesting... I thought about writing some experimental code for an exchange, but couldn't figure out an algorithm that
would allow multithreaded operation. To execute a huge number of orders per second I guessed mutithreading would be useful.
But each new order to execute depends on the results of the previously executed ones (for the price and available amounts).
Doing inter-thread communication to sort this looks too hard for me (and may kill performance), so it's in the forgotten projects drawer.
610.
Post 10001145 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.42h):
I doubt that. After reading the "Willy report" I came to a different conclusion: that a MtGox staff, possibly Karpeles himself,
pumped up the price with fake fiat, breaking through critical resistance levels and truncating corrections.
The purpose was to "build" a 2x - 4x higher price of a normal bull market, that would attract new and true speculator fiat.
If Karpeles wanted to recover stolen coins from 2011, his trading would have resulted in artificially suppressed prices.
611.
Post 10015168 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.42h):
I smell an incoming little pump, in a couple of hours.
612.
Post 10020511 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.42h):
Every time the 6h PSAR flipped to bearish during the last couple of months, the downtrend lasted 2 - 3 days.
It won't take much dump to break support at 305$, and after that a large dump can take the price to 275$.
613.
Post 10021617 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.42h):
Bitfinex catching up!
5k dump!
614.
Post 10021839 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.42h):
Just realized that I made a mistake by shorting bitcoin, I should have shorted litecoin instead...
615.
Post 10021916 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.42h):
15min and 5min MACD still bearish on Bistamp and Bitfinex, but bullish divergence on Huobi, the extra fiat there makes a small difference.
616.
Post 10022270 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.42h):
I smell an incoming little pump, in a couple of hours.
You were GODDAMN RIGHT.
My mistake, sorry. The "little pump" I expected yesterday evening turned out to be a flat, and then downhill. It's bearisher than in September.
617.
Post 10025652 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
15min MACD divergence flipping to red soon, usually means more dumps to come.
618.
Post 10026899 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
LMAO @ BTCChina order book!
619.
Post 10028122 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Finally, the misleading weekly PSAR flipped on Bistamp:
620.
Post 10028373 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Finally, the misleading weekly PSAR flipped on Bistamp:
Does that mean we are going up or down?
It only means that some people jumped to the wrong conclusion (bull run, new ATH soon) in November.
621.
Post 10028460 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
New low on finex.
And Huobi.
622.
Post 10028762 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Just closed my leveraged short and put a really low bid, just in case. See you tomorrow, it's 2.27 am, sleepy...
623.
Post 10033292 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
There was just a 300+ BTC market buy on Finex. Someone is bullish at least.
Must've been a website glitch
...not. Bulls
Glitch it was. 400 market sell, but registered green on bitcoinwisdom. Support held and very short term likely going up.
624.
Post 10033697 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Huobi dumping again, I hoped there would be a small uptrend and now sold at a tiny loss.
625.
Post 10033882 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Huobi dumping again, I hoped there would be a small uptrend and now sold at a tiny loss.
Western exchanges reluctant to follow the mainland Chinese, waiting to see if very short term support will be broken.
626.
Post 10033977 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Double bottom breaking on bitfinex.
Market could be going down another 20$, but I'm not shorting anymore, should have left my earlier short running.
627.
Post 10034099 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
This time the 42% of poll responders were right: crash down and make a new all time recent low.
628.
Post 10034478 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
This will look good on my floor.So far, the market looks like this (not suitable for children, sorry):
629.
Post 10034810 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
I started buying at 263. Bearwhale is about to get slaughtered.
What bearwhale?
I didn't see a bearwhale, only lots of Chinese bear-penguins.
630.
Post 10035008 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Next minutes are critical, Huobi is testing very short term support. If it bounces, then this was a short term bottom.
631.
Post 10035258 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Next minutes are critical, Huobi is testing very short term support. If it bounces, then this was a short term bottom.
Huobi broke very short term support, but took a lot of ammo, with little bearish gain.
632.
Post 10035784 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
In a few weeks perma-bulls be like:
"haha bear trolls BTC price is still at $50! more than X500 since its inception!!! already going for $65 prepare for moonshot
"
Very funny, but I sincerely hope not.
633.
Post 10036755 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Short interest a hair away from 20,000 contracts on bfxdata. Over 3000 new shorts today. Retest 300 soon.
I hope you are right, I'd love to short the top of a ginormous DCB.
634.
Post 10036783 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
...one year of bear market (never happened before)...
June 2011 to February 2013 was less than a year?
June 2011 to November 2011, that was the bear market. The rest until 2013 was a slow bull market, until Markus stepped in.
PS. I can't believe this! You beat me by a second.
635.
Post 10045498 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
Bullish news, California legally approves bitcoin (sorry if someone else posted it first):
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/ab-129-california-legally-approves-use-bitcoin/
636.
Post 10046794 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
How will the miners dump there bitcoins now?
if(stamp == gox) sendto(China);
Chinese miners already dump on Chinese exchanges. For western miners, it's not an option, since they can't withdraw fiat.
637.
Post 10048033 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
Is it just me, or BTC-E halted as well?
Doesn't look halted on bitcoinwisdom. And the site is working.
638.
Post 10048571 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
Yes and if we
were to experience a 2013 rate of growth again reinstate Willy, we'd be put at $35k/BTC at the end of november. Funny this market, ain't it?
FTFY
639.
Post 10050055 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
So now Bitstamp has to buy back its 18K BTC on the market asap
Not necessarily. They could dump inexistent coins and buy them back later at a much lower price. A sort of reverse Willy.
640.
Post 10050195 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
So now Bitstamp has to buy back its 18K BTC on the market asap
Not necessarily. They could dump inexistent coins and buy them back later at a much lower price. A sort of reverse Willy.
Traders do this everyday. Called shorting
Actually the coins are borrowed from long holders or equity is put in place as collateral.
I know it's called shorting, I'm doing it too. But Bistamp could do this on a large scale without collateral and front run the market.
641.
Post 10063506 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
In about 6 days, 6 hours and 6 minutes blood will flow through the streets.
These times gentlemen, are very critical for the future of bitcoin and any other cryptocoin.
I'm finally making some profit. That means more coins, fuck it when they become worthless shit. I can say I was there,.... and be poor and broke...
My bearish scenario also says THE bottom in 6 - 7 days, according to the speed of the latest events, but it's a moving target.
And the bearish scenario requires (for start) some dumps during the next hours.
642.
Post 10063688 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
In about 6 days, 6 hours and 6 minutes blood will flow through the streets.
These times gentlemen, are very critical for the future of bitcoin and any other cryptocoin.
I'm finally making some profit. That means more coins, fuck it when they become worthless shit. I can say I was there,.... and be poor and broke...
My bearish scenario also says THE bottom in 6 - 7 days, according to the speed of the latest events, but it's a moving target.
And the bearish scenario requires (for start) some dumps during the next hours.
Need to start
dumping within minutes. Cannot go higher than 292. Otherwise we're (I am) fucked.
At least there is already a nice fake wall
Doesn't look like serious dumping will start within minutes, more like testing resistance at 290$ again. IMO it will take 2 - 3 hours for more consistent dumps.
643.
Post 10067526 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
Last opportunity to go short at 290
Maybe, but I'll wait for another 5 - 6 hours for market indicators to confirm it, even if price will be at 285$ by then.
644.
Post 10067930 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
In about 6 days, 6 hours and 6 minutes blood will flow through the streets.
These times gentlemen, are very critical for the future of bitcoin and any other cryptocoin.
I'm finally making some profit. That means more coins, fuck it when they become worthless shit. I can say I was there,.... and be poor and broke...
My bearish scenario also says THE bottom in 6 - 7 days, according to the speed of the latest events, but it's a moving target.
And the bearish scenario requires (for start) some dumps during the next hours.
Need to start
dumping within minutes. Cannot go higher than 292. Otherwise we're (I am) fucked.
At least there is already a nice fake wall
Doesn't look like serious dumping will start within minutes, more like testing resistance at 290$ again. IMO it will take 2 - 3 hours for more consistent dumps.
You were right
What indicators do you use trade?
That's what I'm looking at, in different time frames and intervals.
645.
Post 10069267 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
I would say the dumping can start any minute now.
Do you agree Tzupi? (because yesterday I thought this as well and was proven wrong by you
)
1h PSAR flipped to bearish, 1h MACD also crossed to red, but very short term a tiny spike is happening, after this the dumping should start.
646.
Post 10070606 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
At least we knew where gox was. I still don't understand how Karpeles is alive.
Karpeles is still alive because no one whacked him (yet). I remember reading some "final solution" threats 10 months ago.
He might be in possession of a huge amount of CNY IOUs, waiting to buy at the bottom on Chinese exchanges.
Then he might get his balls squeezed by certain unhappy customers, and might return some coins.
647.
Post 10071566 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
i call 300 before friday
I kinda have that feeling too. Dont see a dump after
goxstamp reopens
Prepare for the pump, here it comes
Could reach 294$ in 2 hours, but IMO that will be a local top.
648.
Post 10079464 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
Huobi and OKcoin wish you good morning, ladies!
649.
Post 10080323 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
Go pandas!
650.
Post 10080822 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
Go pandas!
Very short term support broken on Huobi and OKcoin, more dumps coming?
651.
Post 10080953 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
Go pandas!
Very short term support broken on Huobi and OKcoin, more dumps coming?
whats your price target?
It may go down one more time, but I'm not sure, will know in about 2 hours.
652.
Post 10082220 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
The next hour is critical, I'm not joking. It could almost decide breaking resistance at 320$ or going down hard again.
653.
Post 10082468 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
The next hour is critical, I'm not joking. It could almost decide breaking resistance at 320$ or going down hard again.
Looks like the bullish scenario is favored short term. I'm expecting to test resistance at 303$ soon.
654.
Post 10083156 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
Imagine the riches that await.
Buy brothers buy.
Hookers & blow.
Penthouse apartments in NYC, don't miss the train my friends.
You sound desperate. I just closed a small long and wanted to open a short, but I wasn't fast enough, ~300 got dumped before I could act.
655.
Post 10083221 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
...
Don't hesitate my friend, please open a big short.
You funny man! I might open a big short if the market will show signs of a crash, but now there are just minor movements.
656.
Post 10083812 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
I'm not taking a position, there are 3 scenarios:
- consolidate and then go up, obviously bullish
- drop but support at 275$ hold, also reasonably bullish
- drop and break below 275$, bearish.
657.
Post 10084570 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
I'm not taking a position, there are 3 scenarios:
- consolidate and then go up, obviously bullish
- drop but support at 275$ hold, also reasonably bullish
- drop and break below 275$, bearish.
I believe your last option is bullish as well. I suppose depending on what happens after the breach of 275$ changes the situation, but whilst I believe that there is strong possibility we do not break 275$, I also believe there is room to break 275$ and remain in a highly bullish scenario.
Could you explain your thinking on the break of 275$ ? I am interested to hear the perspective.
Lower support than 275$ is at 265$, this mini rally grew from 265$ to 303$, if it drops below 275$ the market "knows" it won't be able to build higher than 303$, so it will go down.
658.
Post 10085266 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
I am so glad I didn't take a long position...
(well, except in the virtual trading, where I got bull trapped
)
659.
Post 10085653 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
OKcoin leading down again.
660.
Post 10086239 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
If within an hour there won't be sustained buying, another dump gets highly probable.
661.
Post 10086344 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
Bitfinex will destroy Bitcoin.
That's an overstatement, but it just took the bearish lead.
662.
Post 10094309 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
can we have a bull weekend for once ?
Bull weekend? I don't know, but in about an hour a little pump is possible due to 1h MACD crossing.
663.
Post 10094783 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
stamp chart jumped to $300
Not true, stuck at 277$.
664.
Post 10096419 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
Remember Gox in January 2014? There was 15%+ difference to other exchanges, because people were buying and withdrawing coins.
The same could be happening with Bitstamp now. It coincides with a normal upward market movement, but it could be misleading.
665.
Post 10098248 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
China dumping, BFX bid wall withdrawn.
666.
Post 10100951 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
Oh crap, I closed my short too early again, based on lack of red volume on Chinese exchanges, and now...splash!
667.
Post 10100985 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
Oh crap, I closed my short too early again, based on lack of red volume on Chinese exchanges, and now...splash!
Good, start being more constructive.
I'm not sure what you mean, but now I have a new rule: wait another hour before closing my shorts.
668.
Post 10101645 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
I think short-selling will never end. It's a powerful negative feedback loop. Bitcoiners are killing Bitcoin
Well selling 6000 coins on finex on Saturday morning isn't anything other than manipulation is it. Certainly not selling for best price.
The buying on BFX this week did not exactly look organic either - exactly the same time 2 days in a row then a trap on the 3rd. Whole thing looks like yet another round of pump and dump.
Just another regular week in Bitcoin!
Stop trying to reason with inca, for him going up is always normal, going down is always manipulation.
And the bullish scenario is still valid, if during the next 2 - 3 days the market will be able to break resistance at 297$. If not, bears will rejoice.
669.
Post 10107328 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.46h):
Rely on Jesus. Must be the despair phase then
bulltrap to 285-290 soon
I'd be happy with a bull trap at 290$.
670.
Post 10114755 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.46h):
China dumps hard, breaks short term support.
671.
Post 10114855 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.46h):
BLOOD
Not yet, just the smell of blood, several days from now it will be beartastic.
672.
Post 10125480 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.46h):
short squeezing is a possibility, i think - too many shorters at and below this level
Not me, I just closed a small long, but I'm not shorting yet, need to see how this develops.
673.
Post 10129268 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.46h):
We have a spike in transaction fees, the other two recent ones were in August and September, just before significant price drops.
674.
Post 10134550 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.47h):
675.
Post 10135042 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.47h):
Bear head Tzupy, you also felt some filthy movement on the market, don't you?
Wind will change sooner than expected?
It is good to see that bitcoin fundamentals are present, so there will be a bottom, from which price should rise.
But there wasn't enough red volume yet to say "this was THE bottom", the question is just about the amplitude of this DCB.
676.
Post 10135820 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.47h):
There's something fishy happening on BFX, bids are slightly higher than asks, maybe it's a bot that tries to hold the price up?
677.
Post 10136012 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.47h):
There's something fishy happening on BFX, bids are slightly higher than asks, maybe it's a bot that tries to hold the price up?
Manipulation, to fool bidders and then dump hard, this shouldn't be allowed.
(BTW, I'm still short)
678.
Post 10136113 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.47h):
There's something fishy happening on BFX, bids are slightly higher than asks, maybe it's a bot that tries to hold the price up?
Manipulation, to fool bidders and then dump hard, this shouldn't be allowed.
(BTW, I'm still short)
LOL!!!
What phase are we in when even bears are offended by the dumps?
I'm not complaining about dumps, but about order book manipulation (with a bot?), although it has served me well, I closed my short at 229$.
679.
Post 10138215 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.47h):
BTC-E, such bullishness...
680.
Post 10140261 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.47h):
Bitfinex smalll drops, but China doesn't follow, probably asleep.
681.
Post 10140383 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.47h):
...
Long interest down to 17.1 million. Short interest still at 19k. Interesting few days ahead.
To be precise, short dropped to 18k from 24k, and now grew to 19.5k.
682.
Post 10142093 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.47h):
683.
Post 10143408 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.47h):
Support at 1400 CNY broken in China, this should dump hard!
684.
Post 10147393 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.48h):
If you have no position. Short the pop at 208-209ish
No, thank you. I closed my short late this night at about 217$ and I'm not opening another soon, too risky.
685.
Post 10147492 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.48h):
China has broken short term support, again...
686.
Post 10147679 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.48h):
China broke the 1000 CNY support!
687.
Post 10154852 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.48h):
Adam, time to change the poll, "<250 within 24hours" is pointless now.
688.
Post 10159095 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.49h):
Too early to call reversal. Probably just short covering
Shorts rose to 26k, not covering yet.
689.
Post 10162425 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.49h):
Bitstamp | Total bids: 3230081 USD. Total asks: 8699 BTC. Ratio: 371.29663 USD/BTC
Similar with other exchanges, except BTCChina. Soon the 1h MACD could cross to positive, and provide another push.
690.
Post 10193940 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.50h):
No short squeeze yet, at least on BFX. If the whales would have let the market slip for another 2 - 3 hours,
a downtrend would have gained momentum. On 1h charts price was hugging the lower BB and PSAR had just flipped to bearish.
691.
Post 10194128 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.50h):
sucker rally.
It's too early to tell, wait and see where it corrects. A bull market also starts with pumps, but this one does look artificial to me.
692.
Post 10233395 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
693.
Post 10292014 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.54h):
Ahhhh, nothing is better than a little panic out of nowhere
My panic caught them at 233. Now pump it the fuck up please.
I caught it at 231.21. While it may drop a bit lower (it's already oversold), I expect back to ~260$ within 2 - 3 days.
694.
Post 10297635 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.54h):
695.
Post 10312579 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.55h):
finex lower than Bitstamp?
Something is happening behind the curtains
Leverage
Longs are down a bit, shorts up a bit. Probably because the recovery is missing in action, and they fear another big dump.
696.
Post 10340299 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.55h):
Finex shorters getting absolutely massacred (assuming this rise ISNT shorts closing)
I just checked the BTC swaps, just a small gradual decline yet. But more can come - I'll be happy, being long and waiting sooo long for this pump.
697.
Post 10346521 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.56h):
Guys...we're going to hit $300 soon right?
I will be telling my grandchildren how I had a buy for 50 bitcoins sitting at 193 euros that sat there for half a day with many times being the highest bid.
They'll say I could have bought a whole spaceship with all of that.
193 euros seems a bit high to catch a falling knife, you might try 207. As for the spaceship, hahaha, permabulls can do better than CCMF and rocket pictures.
698.
Post 10346738 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.56h):
Guys...we're going to hit $300 soon right?
I will be telling my grandchildren how I had a buy for 50 bitcoins sitting at 193 euros that sat there for half a day with many times being the highest bid.
They'll say I could have bought a whole spaceship with all of that.
193 euros seems a bit high to catch a falling knife, you might try 207. As for the spaceship, hahaha, permabulls can do better than CCMF and rocket pictures.
On Kraken you would have caught the falling knife.
699.
Post 10346847 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.56h):
Don't forget that Kraken are EURO
I know they are euro, I think you missed my point, this is a good entry point, there is room upwards and I suggested 193 euro is low.
700.
Post 10355712 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.56h):
I was planning to short in half an hour, but dumpers had the same idea and didn't wait for market indicators to turn bearish.
701.
Post 10377171 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.56h):
I'm buying back in again after selling at $218.
so we're probably going down
IIRC you were a permabull, or is my memory failing?
And we'll soon see if going down or towards 235$, just a couple of hours will clarify this.
702.
Post 10377958 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.56h):
I'm buying back in again after selling at $218.
so we're probably going down
IIRC you were a permabull, or is my memory failing?
And we'll soon see if going down or towards 235$, just a couple of hours will clarify this.
nah pump already over.
Was not.
703.
Post 10610348 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.01h):
Obama: If only we could rid the world of the dumbest, greediest criminal element, without harming normal people...
CIA: Mr. President, our secret research labs have finally perfected just such a weapon. We call it ... Bitcoin.
Obama: Hahahahahahahahaha! Make it so!
Obama: Now we only need a name. The creator of Bitcoin, what could it be?
CIA: What are you thinking Mr. President? First thing that comes to your mind.
Obama: Gotta be something hilarious. "So a man took a shit". Make an anagram out of that. Go ahead lol
CIA: mmh... ... "Satoshi Nakamoto"?
Obama: hahaha you are a fucking genius!
rofl is that a real anagram? im lazy counting the letters.. if so, +1! ^^
I counted, it is a real anagram!
704.
Post 10619729 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.01h):
Wow, 8000 coins dumped in 30 minutes.
There are some real kamikaze bears trying to get their shorts covered lower.
Lol, they'll fail.
Love it when you see so much denial among the bears.
you are just wrong. these were not new shorts. This drop was initiated by bulls...
On BFX both the shorts and longs didn't change much, so I'd say it was initiated like the pump, based on some market indicators.
705.
Post 10631738 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.01h):
...
Anyone knows how many joules are tipically consumed today to create 1 valid block (25 BTC)?
...
Assuming current market price is very close to electrical energy spent on mining, and price for that is a low 10 cents / kwh, I'm getting a guesstimate of ~227 GJ.
706.
Post 10641314 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
Houston, we have a problem...
707.
Post 10660447 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
2h PSAR flipped, then 6h flipped too, time for a nice red dildo!
708.
Post 10670253 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
Look at this wonderful cup&handle pattern.
Target is $380 within 3 weeks from now. Write this down and check back later.
Quoted for checking 3 weeks from now.
709.
Post 10673474 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
This didn't start on mainland China exchanges, but on Bitfinex.
15 min MACD was positive for a while, 1h MACD divergence turned green, someone pump bought 2k BTC.
710.
Post 10674782 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
Off topic: Han Solo crashed a vintage aircraft and got injured, he should have sticked to the Millenium Falcon. I wish him a speedy recovery.
711.
Post 10677733 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
I am really disappointed by the bulls, couldn't you pump a bit more, did you already run out of steam?
I shorted the top of the pump at 284$ yesterday but had to go to sleep and closed my short way to early.
712.
Post 10683851 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
Failed pump started on Huobi, could mean we are in a descending channel.
713.
Post 10689894 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
Triangles about to close very soon, but difficult to say how.
714.
Post 10692187 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
The triangle seems to break to the upside. But no major pump yet, hmm...
715.
Post 10693242 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
The triangle seems to break to the upside. But no major pump yet, hmm...
We are slowly going up, it doesn't feel like the usual pumps.
Price gain is limited (yet), but market indicators are in the overbought zone. I closed my long, just in case, may reopen later.
716.
Post 10694831 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
There are about 4M$ new longs since the start of this rally (~240$ some 10 days ago), this means about 15k BTC will have to be sold if the rally ends, just to cover those longs.
717.
Post 10695935 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
Dump is getting late to the party, makes me wonder if it will happen at all, and I'll go to sleep soon anyway.
718.
Post 10704656 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
Not me, I need to see a green dildo to react like that.
719.
Post 10714956 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
To be honest, I hope we won't see a rally.
A slow and steady rise from here would be very bullish.
Slow and steady not possible. Either goes parabolic another ~50$ and crashes, or runs of of steam and crashes.
720.
Post 10715811 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
Someone on btc-e took profits selling all the way down to $273. Not sure if I agree.
Some exchanges have difficulties following this rally, part of the bids have been used to buy and it's becoming risky to wait for taking profits.
Although the market indicators look (for now) quite bullish in multiple time frames.
721.
Post 10726117 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
No fucking way $300 is the top. This rally has legs. I've seen a shitload of tops and they don't look like this.
There is still much money to be made.
Keep telling this to the Chinese, they have other plans.
722.
Post 10728251 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):
I wouldn't be surprised if during the next couple of days a head-and-shoulders pattern will emerge.
723.
Post 10774752 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.04h):
but this isnt about crashing the price, but pressuring longs that borrowed 21 mil.
this will take days.
also, that wall on bitfinex at 280 is fake.
Last peak in longs was on the 7th December, with price at ~380$. We need several more days to reach a similar peak in longs,
while price will weakly rebound, but asks will pile up and eventually overflow, so patience is the best bear strategy now.
724.
Post 10809866 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):
Go Bearstamp!
725.
Post 10810068 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):
Finally, China breaches support!
726.
Post 10816407 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):
Oh crap, I thought this was over for today and closed my short at 266$...
727.
Post 10817301 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):
The next bulltrap (5-10$ rise) will probably make all the bullscammers and bulltrolls appear again. It has been such a wonderful quiet and peaceful day in here so far. I wish it could always be like this.
Don't jinx it!
I hope the DCB will rise 20$ so I can get a good shorting entry tomorrow morning.
728.
Post 10821966 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):
hello bulls.
I see you are opening longs like mad. good, good. the more you open the harder the fall will be.
I wouldn't hold my breath for the longs getting margin called soon. I mean, I'd love this to happen, but I'm not counting on it.
If the market is in a similar position today with the 13th June 2014, then a long squeeze may only happen ~2 months from now.
Back then, longs kept rising until mid July, and were squeezed during the 11th - 18th August crash.
729.
Post 10824985 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):
the bull brigate is out of the woods.
give us another good opportunity for shorting, please.
I hoped they'll provide us bears with a short entry at 270$, but that may have been optimistic.
730.
Post 10830724 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):
If the current movement continues 2h MACD will cross within the hour (Finex). I say up (after the Eclipse).
That's not possible, even with sustained buying 2h MACD would need 8h or more to get positive (only divergence is positive now).
The 1h MACD is in the balance, could point direction soon.
731.
Post 10839463 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
...The bitcoin system does not create any real wealth (food, homes, cars, boat rides, haircuts...) ...
You are mistaken, bitcoin (the network) is a service, just like hairdressing. It fulfills the needs of small fraction of the society, although with a stupid waste of computing power / energy.
As long as dark markets and like will continue to use bitcoin, it will have intrinsic value. When / if they will stop, only then the value will converge towards 0.
732.
Post 10840789 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
Bulls and bears balance each other very well atm.
Guess the
next two month will become boring to an almost unbearable level.
No, either going up to ~290$ and then slowly descending, accelerating and eventually crashing, or just crash in 4 - 5 days.
733.
Post 10852942 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
Looks like the right time to start a pump is while most Chinese are asleep. Now short-term resistance has been broken, let's see how high this goes.
734.
Post 10870104 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
4h MACD and divergence are negative now, usually this means another day or two of decline.
Bitcoincharts not available just before this round of dumps started.
735.
Post 10870907 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
4h MACD and divergence are negative now, usually this means another day or two of decline.
Bitcoincharts not available just before this round of dumps started.
Support broken - panic time...
PS. bitcoincharts working again - what a relief...
736.
Post 10871196 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
...
Next up:
Buy at $67
Sell and GTFO at $150
lol
Well, the opportunity to buy at 67$ may take a couple of months, but keep in mind the trading plan above.
737.
Post 10871623 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
a long squeeze would be pretty fucking epicly tragic
Not for the bears.
I'm drooling over one that would reach as low as 180$, a bear can hope...
738.
Post 10871995 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
stamps eating that bid wall
This could be a local bottom, wait for a couple of hours for replenished bids, then resume dumping.
739.
Post 10876462 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
Dear market, can we bears have another round of dumps, please?
740.
Post 10879457 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.06h):
Dear market, can we bears have another round of dumps, please?
My prayers have been eventually answered, nice...
741.
Post 10902295 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.07h):
Western exchanges seem willing to crash again, but China not yet. Interesting, if the opportunity to crash will be missed, we may go up.
742.
Post 10920369 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.07h):
fork?
100 $ here we come.
100$? You must be a permabull...
743.
Post 10930487 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.08h):
...
No, the smart thing is to buy and hold. More precisely, the
other traders buy and hold,
while I sell.
Quoted for future reference, the first evidence the JorgeStolfi currently has or had bitcoins.
One can't sell if one has 0 BTC, any attempt to do so results in "Invalid order: not enough balance" message.
744.
Post 10930544 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.08h):
...
No, the smart thing is to buy and hold. More precisely, the
other traders buy and hold,
while I sell.
Quoted for future reference, the first evidence the JorgeStolfi currently has or had bitcoins.
One can't sell if one has 0 BTC, any attempt to do so results in "Invalid order: not enough balance" message.
yes you can. you can short sell it.
Yes, if Jorge has fiat on an exchange and actively shorts bitcoin. He should clarify this, but he didn't say "while I short sell".
745.
Post 10952391 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.08h):
btw avatars are up!
Interesting... I think we'll soon see a strong pump... in displayed avatars!
746.
Post 10955386 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.08h):
I found this analysis by Timwest good:
https://www.tradingview.com/v/z608Kqjz/While I'm 100% fiat, I expect this to break up (may take some time), and I'm ready to jump on a pump. Or to short if it breaks down, whatever...
747.
Post 10959474 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.08h):
748.
Post 10961834 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.08h):
I found this analysis by Timwest good:
https://www.tradingview.com/v/z608Kqjz/While I'm 100% fiat, I
expect this to break up (may take some time), and I'm ready to
jump on a pump. Or to short if it breaks down, whatever...
On BFX daily PSAR has flipped to bullish, but not yet on Bitstamp and BTC-E. Chinese exchanges' data are not available anymore on bitcoincharts.
749.
Post 10973793 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.08h):
Yes, but SOON could mean several weeks, in the mean time it's possible to go up a bit.
750.
Post 10990440 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.09h):
I have yet to see the price of a Bitcoin going up organically.
Conclusion : If you are not flash buying, this shitcoin simply doesn't go up (its tendency is to go into abyss). You start to think that Tim Draper, Winkle and Friends are just pumping fiat in this so they won't lose value on their hundreds of thousands of bitcoins.
Yeah
On the 27th and 30th August 2013 Markus bought a lot of BTC, further faking the bull market (total net BTC bought by Markus = 297628). From the Willy report:
In this table, the first two trades (buy/sell pairs) are by some regular user with ID 238168. In the second trade, this user buys 0.398 BTC for $15.13. The next trade is some large market buy by Markus (ID 698630): note how the “$15.13″ value from the previous trade seems to “stick”; regardless of the volume of BTC bought, the value paid is always $15.13. This is speculation, but perhaps for Markus, the “Money” spent field is in fact empty, and the program that generates the trading logs simply takes whatever value was already there before.
In other words, Markus is somehow buying tons of BTC without spending a dime.
751.
Post 11029020 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.10h):
Good morning, ladies!
1d and 3d MACD divergence turned red, while the MACD themselves are negative, this is going to seriously hurt the bulls.
752.
Post 11042392 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.10h):
Good morning, ladies!
1d and 3d MACD divergence turned red, while the MACD themselves are negative, this is going to seriously hurt the bulls.
Moving averages diverge all the time, which is all MACD really is, calculating the difference between two lines and turning it into momentum.
Seems like a shakeout to me. Volume has been steadily declining as we are nearing the end of the trading range, similar to Dec 2014. The difference then is that we had the Bitstamp hack to bring in sellers to push us lower.
If there's enough volume to get below $235, see you there.
It's happening...
753.
Post 11062626 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.10h):
A little off-topic I suppose (
) but does anyone grok why Huobi always seems to have more dirty laundry than OKCoin?
I'm not sure what you mean by "dirty laundry", but my opinion on Huobi moves is that they lost market share and their slippage has increased.
754.
Post 11073269 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.11h):
Bearstamp wants to take the lead, BTC-E follows.
755.
Post 11115815 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.11h):
Why is Bitfinex so bearish compared to others?
That. BTC-E is normally $5-10 under finex.
Still over 25 million $ in longs. If they would close, they would wipe the bids multiple times. Probability of a long squeeze during a new crash is high.
756.
Post 11138884 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
6h PSAR flipped to bearish...
757.
Post 11142639 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
I pretty much share the same short-term view.
Here's DanV's newest projection.
<snip>
So effectively the guy that predicted Bitcoin's spiralling down to, what, $50 has now predicted a turnaround and bounce-off of about current levels? Interesting turn of events.
No. If you understand what he has written on TV, and the chart labelling, he is opening up to the possibility that we are still in a corrective move from the $166 low. See his green line to $360, labelled [C] - that would mark the end of the correction (from $166) and resumption of the downtrend to new lows at $xx(x?). IDK if this significantly alters his downside target, but it would certainly drag this bear market out several months longer than his previous count, which had us starting the move to new lows from $300 a month ago. Pick your poison ...
EW counts evolve with price action. To him this current action does not fit well with his previously published chart, so he is publishing a new one, as any sensible analyst would do.
Remember - the best EW analysts have multiple counts running in parallel at any one time. It is only by excluding those that are invalidated and focussing on those with the higher probabilities (according to EW rules) that they stay on track. But they will keep an eye on alt-counts in order to switch if the primary count is invalidated/looks less probable.
Here is the link to the chart with his commentary:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/EUytkasj-BTCUSD-FURTHER-SHORT-TERM-WEAKNESS-IN-STORE-WITH-OF-TARGET-210/I doubt that the breaking down would stop at 210$. Once 4h and 6h MACD divergence would turn negative, IMO large dumps would break the key 210$ support level.
So if the market will go up to 300+, it has to start pumping soon, without any major drops before.
758.
Post 11150875 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
759.
Post 11152918 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
...The way I see it, bears are running out of time... buy now or get burnt.
No, bears aren't running out of time. Even if THE bottom was 3 months ago, considering that the market moves slowly, there should be another 1 - 2 months of relatively low prices.
So "buy now OR get burnt" may turn into "buy now AND get burned", in the bearish scenario. In the bullish one, plenty of time to buy, mega-rally only after the block halving in 2016.
760.
Post 11184492 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
Largest spike in BDD since March 2014, nice... should provide bear ammo for the next month.
761.
Post 11191728 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
12h PSAR flipped to bearish on Bitfinex and BTC-E and very close to flip on Bitstamp and BTCChina.
762.
Post 11199167 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
12h PSAR flipped to bearish on Bitfinex and BTC-E and very close to flip on Bitstamp and BTCChina.
Sometimes, when it looks too bearish, it's actually bullish.
Just sayin'
And sometimes if it looks mildly bearish, it's just a prelude of crashes.
12h PSAR flipped to bearish on all exchanges, also 1d PSAR flipped, so we're not going up significantly for a while.
763.
Post 11199816 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
A good shag may be coming during the next weeks.
Largest spike in transaction fees since November 2013.
764.
Post 11201270 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
Good good....
Despair...
You know the age old adage right.
Despair, now? I don't think so. We should have a nice despair mood about 3 weeks from now.
765.
Post 11212497 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
To all bears: Short now!!!
not yet
This.
The DCB has a bit more room left.
766.
Post 11215952 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.13h):
russian bitcoin ban hammer getting closer.
just look how fast profits are leaving btc-e.
soon™.
They are desperate to get out, must have some inside knowledge.
The withdrawn coins will probably be distributed and slightly increase asks / seller pressure on other exchanges.
767.
Post 11216446 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.13h):
I almost placed a 3x leveraged short at 229$, but was too lazy to press the margin sell button.
Thought I had time until tomorrow to reach 229$, but now I'll have to wait a bit and see how this situation develops.
768.
Post 11220844 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.13h):
I almost placed a 3x leveraged short at 229$, but was too lazy to press the margin sell button.
Thought I had time until tomorrow to reach 229$, but now I'll have to wait a bit and see how this situation develops.
scared
No, not scared, this was
before the crazy BTC-E pump. I expected a small rise reaching about 230$ today, so at that time I had no reason to be scared.
If I wouldn't have been lazy (by delaying placing the short limit order for the next day), yes I would have been scared when seeing the crazy pump.
I still don't understand the BTC-E pump, need more time to see the follow-up, and am now waiting for a new low risk entry for my planned short.
769.
Post 11222743 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.13h):
You know what I wonder: with all these guys with all this money at stake, you'd think they would pay some anti-NLC types to defend the reputation of their investment. Why aren't there more everything is rainbows trolls?
There are still plenty of permabulls starting the moontalk every minor uptrend.
If you want to see a possibly paid "anti-NLC" I suggest to look at this guy posting his "technical analysis" on tradingview:
https://www.tradingview.com/u/user100000/
770.
Post 11264255 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.13h):
A Chinese pump is brewing.
771.
Post 11269718 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.13h):
A Chinese pump is brewing.
Damn, I waited to jump on this pump late into the night, then had to go to sleep.
Obviously, I overslept, and now I see that one hour later it started, grrr...
772.
Post 11296147 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
I have a question about GBTC: If you buy a share, can you convert it to real bitcoin? (Maybe it sounds stupid, but I think it's important and not obvious because of this trend with "advanced trading assets" and other shit talk)
EDIT: And I support "The List" 100%!
That's what I believe too. That if you actually buy a share you actually buy the equivalent BTC amount. I don't have an account there, but I believe there should be an option to get your BTCs out if you'd like...
I think you buy bitcoin IOUs, just as on exchanges. The difference is that you can buy BTC IOU on exchanges for 235$ and then request a withdrawal of your real BTC.
773.
Post 11302689 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
dump alert
Western exchanges don't yet look ready for the dump, only China. In a couple of hours we'll see who leads the market.
774.
Post 11305693 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
Support broken on OKcoin, also triggered bearish flip of 2h PSAR.
775.
Post 11305805 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
I see we dropped 3 dollars on low volume.
Bears back in town? Lol
Nice timing to bitch about bears...
776.
Post 11322754 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
Is it possible to tell who has been pulling these two rallies?
Could it be people buying bitcoins somewhere else to move them to ITBit?
Or a reaction to the GBTC recovery? (BTW, what happened to that 50'000 share bid?)
Dear prof, IIRC some time ago you discovered the fractal nature of bitcoin price.
I suggest to take a look at the action of the 30th July 2014. The difference is that there was no drop and fast recovery like now before the pump.
Expect high volume and turbulence the next days, possibly up to ~260$, and permabulls raving over the action.
777.
Post 11327865 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
Pump failed now, a bit of consolidation needed, maybe later it will succeed.
778.
Post 11338681 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
What's happening!? Why the sudden dump now!?
I was expecting to see volume, a fight between bulls and bears and a slow jagged ascent to 260$, before the final descent.
But it seems pandas are impatient and dump before reaching there. Makes me happy I didn't buy this morning, as planned.
779.
Post 11411724 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
86% voted buy or hold, a clear indicator we haven't yet left the bear market.
780.
Post 11414157 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
GBTC is such a joke
It wouldn't be a joke if it would be possible to short it.
781.
Post 11421692 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
Come on, bulls, you can do it! A little pump is all I ask, so I can place my short tomorrow.
782.
Post 11421990 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
Come on, bulls, you can do it! A little pump is all I ask, so I can place my short tomorrow.
"Come on bulls and investors. Put your money here so I can shit on your face (likely with leverage) tomorrow for personal gain!". Perhaps this ongoing mentality is why there isn't this "new money" coming in I keep hearing about.
This is how markets work, everybody is after his personal gain. At least I'm honest, I don't ask bulls to buy while promising moon, on the contrary...
783.
Post 11442997 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
...
I have already said that IF that happens (or something else convincing enough) I'm certainly long.
But right now could go either way. I'm just gonna follow the current wherever it goes.
I believe in a bullish scenario we are in a similar position with the days preceding the mid November 2011 correction to 2$.
Of course, I am 100% fiat and looking for a good shorting entry.
784.
Post 11483607 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.16h):
785.
Post 11493132 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.16h):
i have many bears memes stocked for tomorrow crash
Only if truncation happens. Otherwise, the crash starts next weekend. Possibly fueled by more of this:
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/former-cto-bitcoin-exchange-okcoin-changpeng-zhao-speaks-scams-trading-bots/
786.
Post 11496826 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.16h):
Everyone's eyes should be glued to the charts at this pivotal point.
Could you elaborate more please.
Daily and weekly Bollinger bands are at the tightest levels they've been at for years. This is in addition to the volume flattening out over a long time. A breakout here is likely to set the tone for the coming weeks and months.
Considering that daily PSAR is bearish and daily MACD turned negative, while price is hugging the lower daily BB, the likely scenario is bearish.
787.
Post 11506610 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.16h):
Everyone's eyes should be glued to the charts at this pivotal point.
Could you elaborate more please.
Daily and weekly Bollinger bands are at the tightest levels they've been at for years. This is in addition to the volume flattening out over a long time. A breakout here is likely to set the tone for the coming weeks and months.
Considering that daily PSAR is bearish and daily MACD turned negative, while price is hugging the lower daily BB, the likely scenario is bearish.
Bearish scenario is too obvious...so up UP!
Sometimes the obvious scenario just happens, like now... so down Down DOWN!
788.
Post 11506733 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.16h):
btc swap rates now higher than usd..
In what measure?
Delusional measure.
789.
Post 11513723 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.16h):
220 still magic number for now
Cracks are appearing but how long is it going to hold?
You god damn bears are having your way right now, I initially thought 220 would hold but the longer it hovers just above the more likely it is to fall below.
I can't remember what a green dildo looks like lol.
**Prays to bitcoin God's for a few shoots of green & a fresh sign of life in this bitcoin game**
According to my sources, your prayers could be answered in August. Until then, flimsy green dildos in between many large red ones.
790.
Post 11533349 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.16h):
...
Haha, yea you are right. It does looks like someone is just looping the prices in front of us like Keanu Reeves did to Dustin Hoffman with the bus security camera in Speed. I turn on the computer each morning and it's all the same thing. We had the bitlicense thingy yesterday which was different but the price didn't care. Are volatile days of bitcoin over? When was the last time we saw a 20% move in a day? It's been a while.
Dennis Hopper != Dustin Hoffman
If the fork happens and large holders will decide to mitigate risks, they could dump a lot of coins in exchange for fiat IOU, only to buy back later, at much lower prices.
791.
Post 11574554 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
So all this up was shorting closing, sadly the price didn't move much but shorts closed were a huge amount. If there is no followup things are not looking good at all
Some 6k shorts closed, a few more longs opened, which are now at the highest level since August 2014, guess what's coming next weekend?
792.
Post 11595743 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Market indicators are not suggesting a large drop soon, looking at the past months, they need to deteriorate for several days before.
I am actually waiting for a little pump to start my new short, maybe tomorrow?
793.
Post 11603879 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Them finex ask walls tho
Growing by the minute... sooo bullish, riiight?
794.
Post 11603908 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Them finex ask walls tho
Growing by the minute... sooo bullish, riiight?
Sometimes, if it looks too bearish, it's actually bullish
Sometimes indeed, when the market is deep in the oversold zone, but not now.
Market indicators still don't suggest a major dump (very) soon, but someone really wants to get rid of the bag.
795.
Post 11610167 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
The bid sum / ask sum ratio suggests a little pump is brewing. And I would like to start my new short around 235$.
796.
Post 11611415 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
The bid sum / ask sum ratio suggests a little pump is brewing. And I would like to start my new short around 235$.
Little pump happened, didn't hit my limit short, and now I'm getting sleepy. Cancelled it and will see tomorrow how this develops.
797.
Post 11634785 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
This move is impressive. I don't see indicators that it will fall back down again.
You should be blind then, m8
That is a great indicator.
Take all your money and go 20x leverage short right now!
You'll be rich within 2 days!
No, thank you. While a correction is possible during the next couple of days, I plan to short 3x in about 10 days around 270$.
798.
Post 11650221 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
Be careful bulls, head & shoulder pattern (finex 1h chart) that did brake the neckline is now trying to deny the trend reversal. Also looking at the orderbook over at finex.. well it screams bulltrap (20k v 6k, cmon lol). Happy trading!
I think a larger H&S will form, and I hope to dump my bag around 270$.
799.
Post 11651508 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
To me, the bid structure on Bitfinex looks like a whale bought about 6k BTC non-leveraged, and now
he put fake (legit but would vanish) bids leveraged staggered between 234$ and 249$, to persuade the
piglets into getting bull trapped. I hope he'll succeed and that I'll be able to dump before him.
800.
Post 11711132 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
we need the last true believers to sell at the lowest possible price point. paging u norway & lfc
Patience, the lowest possible price point is nowhere near. Give it several months, then page them when crashing to double digits.
801.
Post 11720085 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
It would be nice (for the bears
) to see a 4k dump soon, the wall on bfx asks for it...
802.
Post 11720859 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
It would be nice (for the bears
) to see a 4k dump soon, the wall on bfx asks for it...
The price would recover in minutes...
Would have no long term effect, except by some posts and threads in the speculation asking WTF is going on
After a couple of weeks with significant dumps, the bids would become depleted and then a new capitulation would start, I am looking forward to it.
803.
Post 11721066 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
Someone should buy 4k BTC on Finex instead at market price
Would be more fun
Sure, it would pump to 260$, but asks have been low for some time, and no such buy happened, bulls are out of fiat (besides the fake walls).
804.
Post 11721249 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
@Ezmoneyezlife: according to my most probable count, we are in a similar position with the purple arrow.
805.
Post 11736461 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
That was one helluva dump, doing squat.
I couldn't believe that. We had one crappy little pump on finex, then just when I thought it was going to moon we had a 1.5k dump straight down. Is someone taking us for a ride or what?
Oops, I accidentally maxed my short!
Just kidding, I only took a small short position, will probably max it in a couple of days, after I'll see a bearish formation.
806.
Post 11747141 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
interesting that always LTC leads the BTC Pumps
What bitcoin pump? Last 2 days, bitcoin is up 5%, litecoin is up 30%. Who leads who?
807.
Post 11747484 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
interesting that always LTC leads the BTC Pumps
What bitcoin pump? Last 2 days, bitcoin is up 5%, litecoin is up 30%. Who leads who?
well, the driving force behind litecoin is bitcoin. Someone pumped a lot of btc into ltc.
I say> good !
Some BTC holders believe that moving into LTC will yield greater profits, due to the upcoming LTC halving, which is quite possible.
A lot of BTC will be eventually be sold to realize the LTC profits. Also, the LTC pump drains fiat that would be used for BTC pumping.
There is a weak correlation between the prices, works short term, but long term this is bearish for BTC.
808.
Post 11763257 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
Bitcoin raised with $10 ppl start to think it will go to atleast $300 and beyond $1000.
Bitcoin drops with $10 ppl start to think it will go to sub $200 and a new low.
They're always wrong!
Actually, when critical support at 210$ will be breached by a 10$ drop, it will go down quite fast and will eventually reach a new low, but this will take some time.
809.
Post 11795842 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
my eyes are on litecoin.
not a single fuck I give on underperforming btc.
Can I ask you what you're using to buy ltc? I suppose you are using bitcoin or am I wrong?
coherence
who said that I am buying it?
anyway, I am using my $.
Sorry tarmi, but I will laugh my fucking ass off if you get wiped out shorting litecoin.
that's because you arent any different from others bull scam a-holes.
consider me shorting ltc a "voice of reason".
I tried shorting litecoin, but not lately. Every time I exited with a tiny loss, just before a pump.
So I think it's still risky, I will only short it if I get the timing right, before the huge red dildo (that will surely happen).
810.
Post 11805937 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
Something really important in trading is knowing when to get out again.
That would be right about fucking now.
Yup, take your profits while you still can.
811.
Post 11835506 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
...
I tried shorting litecoin, but not lately. Every time I exited with a tiny loss, just before a pump.
So I think it's still risky, I will only short it if I get the timing right, before the huge red dildo (that will surely happen).
yes, it's a risky business but somebody still has to do it.
I dont mind if others arent at it, that means just more money for me.
I wonder what happened with tarmi's litecoin shorting, in the 4 days since he posted this the price doubled.
While I did pull a few hairs for missing out on this incredible pump, I sure didn't try to short the chickun.
812.
Post 11839588 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
On Bitfinex, the hammer fell on the chickun (huge red dildo, as low as 5.3).
813.
Post 11846553 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
So that bidside stairway seems to have disappeared on Bitfinex. Used to buy at market or simply pulled?
He got what he wanted, to sell his coins high, no reason to keep his bids, the piglets are almost out of fiat.
814.
Post 11861377 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
now look at all that euphoria
I think it's worse than in May 2014...
815.
Post 11884638 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.21h):
816.
Post 11975538 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.22h):
Speaking of minnows I have an idea I would like to moot with some of the regulars on here. I will collect my thoughts and PM some of you in the next few days.
Nice to see us inching closer for an attack on 300. Bears must be nervous
You do realize that bears can be temporarily leveraged long too? The difference is that bears shall take their profits at the next top, without waiting for a delusional moon.
817.
Post 12002809 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.22h):
818.
Post 12006978 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.22h):
819.
Post 12008052 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.22h):
any news is good news for bitcoin, anyway bullish news has been brutal to btc price lately anyway...
ahem... someone just dump 500 btc
is that you ?
That was just a coincidence, I closed my long yesterday, when I evaluated that the uptrend was losing steam.
I am still looking for bottom fishing the next days, a short term bullish scenario is still possible.
820.
Post 12024526 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.22h):
Mark in prison is very bearish i guess, we need to get him out.
Well, if he sold his customers' coins to the Chinese and has now a boatload of CNY waiting to buy low...
I suppose from prison he won't be able to move his hidden bid walls above 100$.
821.
Post 12026126 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.22h):
Thank you for the link, if what he says is true, Karpeles should have been jailed in 2012.
822.
Post 12184809 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.23h):
Nice new poll, Adam!
May I suggest to change to CIA / NSA joint venture?
823.
Post 12342729 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.25h):
824.
Post 12345103 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.25h):
Im calling it now:
300+ after auction!!
yeahh like last auction we reach 300$
After the last auction we dropped from about 380$ to 166$, so I'm calling 110$ as an upcoming intermediary bottom, don't know how long it will take...
825.
Post 12351710 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.25h):
Come one, piglets, you can do it, one last pump... My staggered limit shorts are waiting for you!
826.
Post 12401626 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.26h):
The avalanche of troll bears makes me uncomfortable being a real bear, wtf is happening?
827.
Post 12428740 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.26h):
I see the finex-wall is back.
I hope we get a pump before the dump.
I hope we get a little dump before a little pump, and then a larger dump...
828.
Post 12483664 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.26h):
829.
Post 12518929 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.26h):
had sold some around 274 & went back all-in today.
which means price can tank violently now.
No it can't tank "now", because in 12h time frame the PSAR is bullish and price hugs the upper BB, also 1d PSAR may flip to bullish today, in which case 260$ is possible.
830.
Post 12542522 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.27h):
The pump got the daily MACD to cross to positive, also flipped the daily PSAR to bullish, so we will go up for a while.
But considering the huge Chinese volume (if it's not fake), for the relatively small price increase, breaking further resistance levels won't be easy.
831.
Post 12553246 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.27h):
A new and intriguing story, it seems that DPR had another wallet that hasn't yet been accessed by the feds:
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/silk-road-figure-variety-jones-claims-corrupt-fbi-agent-making-threats/If the story is true and wallet will be accessed, we could expect a significant seller pressure, so this is worth keeping an eye on.
832.
Post 12618057 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.27h):
BitcoinXT challenges BitcoinCore's supremacy -- no change in the BTC price
BitPay reveals loss of 6 months worth of revenue -- no change.
Major banks ditch Bitcoin and go for permissioned blockchains -- no change
BitcoinXT loses its initial support -- no change
21co releases their bitcoin-enabled RPi -- no change
BlockStream open for a 2 MB block size limit -- no change
Banks force most bitcoin firms in Australia to close -- no change
Gemini gets a BitLicense and announces opening -- no change
Malleability attack by a bored Russian causes general havoc -- no change
Jack Liu of OKCoin on Bloomberg TV -- price jumps by 8 USD in minutes.
Welcome to the world of 比特币...
No, this pump is TA based and should peak around 260$ at the beginning of next week.
833.
Post 12635349 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.27h):
wall street money pouring in.
Yup, currently 3.2 thousand dollars bids at Gemini, this looks sooo bullish...
The bid sum / ask sum ratio is about 20$, might be an insight into the future of bitcoin...
834.
Post 12667012 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.27h):
Someone please remind me, in case I missed it, why does this happen on OKCoin?
On huge volume the price barely moves, then on low volume we have this drop (or the previous pump)?
835.
Post 12732373 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.28h):
836.
Post 12753838 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.28h):
837.
Post 12766873 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.28h):
...
My guess is that the month-long rise from ~220 to ~270 was due to MMM's "Republic of Bitcoin" ponzi, while the spike to ~280 over the last two days was due to the VAT decision.
It seems that the VAT news have already been forgotten. "Wat VAT?"
Most of the rise was a normal market movement after the rather deep correction before.
But the huge buys in China are probably related to this, interpreted as bullish news (authorities friendly towards bitcoin):
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/chinas-cyberspace-administration-acknowledges-bitcoin/But the CAC is NOT the PBoC, so it was kind of "buy the rumor" thing. I expect sometime in the next weeks an official statement of the PBoC on this.
838.
Post 12811425 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.29h):
I really don't want to entertain the MMM discussion but I find it funny how we're supposed to believe these people from South Africa are all active & buying on Chinese exchanges during chinese day time
The MMM ponzi has pages in other languages and (thanks to bitcoin) can make victims everywhere, not just in one country. OKCoin's CEO just confirmed that they are seeing buying pessure connected to MMM and several copycat ponzis in China.
The question is how long will the Chinese authorities take to deal with these ponzis, and how hard will this impact bitcoin.
The most radical move would be to shut down all mainland Chinese exchanges and make bitcoin (wallet) possession a crime, then we could see single digits.
839.
Post 12822506 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.29h):
I THINK someone just shorted ~5K bitcoin on bitfinex
extremely large green dilido is becoming incressingly likly
Doesn't show here:
https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc
840.
Post 12823830 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.29h):
It didn't show earlier, but it does now, 7k new shorts, none mine (yet).
841.
Post 12843326 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
Nice spike in BDD, like the ones in August...
842.
Post 12869084 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.30h):
FUCK ME RUNNING WHY DID I NOT OPEN A LONG LAST NIGHT
Well, I wanted to place a limit short at 379$ yesterday evening, but decided to wait, turns out it was the right decision...
Now I'm only scalping with small amounts, waiting for the correction to short.
843.
Post 12873427 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
The bull party is taking a break...
Dump baby dump!
844.
Post 12873606 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Pulled my buy orders at $375 in the last second
Umm, why? It's about 395 now... Missed my limit buys at 373 and lower...
845.
Post 12875631 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
It would be nice for this little triangle to break down (edit: in China) so I can go to sleep...
846.
Post 12875808 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
It would be nice for this little triangle to break down (edit: in China) so I can go to sleep...
Crap, it's breaking up, more moontalk in this forum...
847.
Post 12880232 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
The next couple of hours are critical, if China will decide to break down we may see a huge red dildo...
848.
Post 12882459 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
this is pure madness. sitting at work. making more in 20 minutes watching the screen than attending here a full month.
You don't really make more until you sell, and it better be before the big crash.
849.
Post 12883039 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Now where to set the buy orders...
322$
I'm bullish, so I'll set mine between 340$ and 380$.
850.
Post 12884108 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Only minutes left until a triangle should break either way, my money is on down.
851.
Post 12884421 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Only minutes left until a triangle should break either way, my money is on down.
It looked like breaking down, but didn't follow, now breaking up...
852.
Post 12884873 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
how high is this thing expected to go?
32,000$ Bitches!
Careful Adam, you may jinx it, and get instead 320$ tomorrow...
853.
Post 12886232 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Pump this DCB up baby, need to place a new short...
854.
Post 12886316 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
420 come on FFS give me 420
Adam, do you understand that if we hit 420$ during the next hours, then the wave patterns have become clearly corrective, and we would see even lower prices?
855.
Post 12888164 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
IMO the price action in western exchanges versus China is almost decoupled.
Ahhh... At last, Huobi follows...
856.
Post 12888526 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
In other news, on BFX LTC crashed to 3$ and instantly rebounded to 4$, another missed trade, story of my life...
857.
Post 12888738 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
no way this can go lower.
Really? It just hit a few of my staggered bids.
858.
Post 12888928 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.31h):
Bitcoin is dead
No, bitcoin is just going home.
859.
Post 12889201 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
how high is this thing expected to go?
32,000$ Bitches!
Careful Adam, you may jinx it, and get instead 320$ tomorrow...
Well, it wasn't 320$, but 366$ was close enough... you definitely jinxed it!
860.
Post 12891451 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Holy shit... Didn't see this coming...
Bought back while sleeping at 400$ with leverage, now I just woke up and 50% of my yesterday's profits went pufff...
Oh well, at least I'll get some sleep...
861.
Post 12893257 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Didn't the auction bidders need to get their bids in a few days ago? Before the price started flying upward?
If so, I think a lot of people are going to get some cheap coins.
Otherwise...they'll still be getting cheap coins
No. Registration was closed a few days ago. The bidding is between 9 and 3 or 5 EST today. They must be a little bit stumped as to where to place those bids.
Thanks for the info.
I would have no idea what to bid.
$500-$600 might be a good deal for them.Permabull humor, hard to understand... They should bid around 350$ to be safe...
862.
Post 12894758 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
FU again Huobi, yesterday you didn't want to go down, today you don't want to go up...
863.
Post 12894832 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
FU again Huobi, yesterday you didn't want to go down, today you don't want to go up...
are you holding long now
Yup, not max leveraged though... there is some room up IMO before another medium or large correction. At least, from the look of western exchanges.
864.
Post 12899055 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
what's the reason for the dump and current roller coaster?
Failure to build new bullish patterns. I missed the first support breach, and now wait to short on the rebound.
865.
Post 12899313 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
only 11 bidders?
Yup, bidder turnout at all time low, and only 30 bids for 22 blocks.
http://www.coindesk.com/bidder-turnout-low-silk-road-bitcoin-auction/
866.
Post 12899530 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
These ups and downs between 420 and 370 remember me to the ATH bubble. The 500 from yesterday was the 1200. Then we went slowly and slowly down. Not sure if this ship will sink one day or fly to the moon. Because of these pump and dumps people lose interest. Its an highly risky investment to buy bitcoins. This is no real currency and no investment. This is gambling.
@500 I was at zero after 2 years of holding. I Should have sold them and gtfo of BTC. I cant imagine we ever will pass 500 ever again. Not in 1 year not in 5 years. Greedy mofos always will payout before the price can tank more.
After these corrections there should be a significant rebound, probably in the 450$ range. If it will reach 500$ and above again, then keep hodling, if 450$ proves too much resistance, then better cut your losses there.
867.
Post 12899873 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
MACD negative from 1 min to 2h, China dumps hard, time to crush support.
868.
Post 12900080 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
320 soon
FWIW I plan to close my short just above 325$, so I'll provide a little support, not that it will matter much...
869.
Post 12904545 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
I swear I didn't know, actually had plans with a long up to 410$, but when it run out of steam I closed it at 390$.
Still I believed there was time to go out and buy some snacks and juice, when I got back the market was already crashing, without usual warnings.
So I did what a bear has got to do, shorted at 382$, now waiting for 340$.
870.
Post 12906600 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
I got tired of waiting for the next round of the dump, and closed my short for a tiny profit, have to get some sleep.
If tomorrow I'll see 340$ I might pull some hairs... And from now on I'm going to take profits sooner...
871.
Post 12910114 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
China ran out of steam, formed a little triangle that broke down (I expected up), so now dumps, western exchanges reluctant to follow yet.
872.
Post 12911973 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
China didn't want to go down for a while, but now catches up.
873.
Post 12913302 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
China didn't want to go down for a while, but now catches up.
Bearish pattern broken, possible to go up to 420$.
874.
Post 12915005 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
i hope price will stabilize right now after falling
It is possible to stabilize in the $350 to $420 territory, but it is very doubtful that such stabilization will occur in the short term. Simply, there is way too much volume currently, and that demonstrates that there is a bit of a battle going on in this price range.
I think that the volume has to go down before prices will stabilize, which could mean that prices return to the $350 to $420 price range, but still the direction remains a bit indeterminative.
I tend to believe that if prices are going to stabilize in the near term (within the next month or two), they will stabilize a bit above $420 rather than below $350. That's just my hunch based on the overall history and seeming price dynamics, and absent any major developments in the news, whether FUD or not..
+1
well vol appears to be going down a little bit, big move coming soon.
There's a rather large triangle that should break soon, but it keeps narrowing instead.
The BB are are also getting narrower, should break one way or another within 2 hours.
875.
Post 12923653 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Support broken in China, also 2h MACD divergence turned red (2h MACD itself was negative, won't turn positive soon).
876.
Post 12923784 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Had planned to close 50% of my short just above 366$, to have more ammo for the rebound, but dumpers missed it by 0.2$... shrug.
And it was such a nice rebound... Oh well, I'll wait for the next round...
877.
Post 12924235 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Shorts up to 11k and longs down to sub 20 million USD.
Shorts up today only 450 BTC, actually makes me feel lonely...
878.
Post 12924673 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
what happend to adam? was he kidnapped or something?
My thoughts also... what if some bears got him (if so, please let him go) and he is posting under duress...
879.
Post 12938378 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
I'm disappointed, the western exchanges didn't follow China as I hoped for, so I decided to close my short at 357$,
now if this drops to 340$ I'll have a reason to rant... So far, the bullish scenario has been weakened, but not invalidated.
880.
Post 12938432 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
Thank you for cheap Bitcoins, Bears!!
You shouldn't thank the bears, but the piglets... Bears provided some support when closing shorts...
881.
Post 12941909 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
I'm disappointed, the western exchanges didn't follow China as I hoped for, so I decided to close my short at 357$,
now if this drops to 340$ I'll have a reason to rant... So far, the bullish scenario has been weakened, but not invalidated.
Rant time...
882.
Post 12942090 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
Come on shorters, we need more of you!
Don't count on me, I already bought non-leveraged. Now holding until the top of the next rebound, shorting after that.
PS. With this post I reached "Legendary bear" status.
883.
Post 12950470 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
you shall not pass!...TODAY
FTFY
EDIT. I was wrong...
884.
Post 12955901 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
See you below 300$...
885.
Post 12957350 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
BITCOIN SALE:
Buy 2 bitcoins (at $500 each) get the third FREE!!!
Meh, I'd rather wait until tomorrow, another offer could arise, like buy 2 bitcoins (at $500 each) get another 1.5 BTC free...
886.
Post 12958106 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
>340 after lunch.
Well, the triangle should have broken down by now, so this looks fishy for a bearish position. I closed my short just in case, may reopen later.
If this breaks up, it could go to 360$, and then start a correction.
887.
Post 12959175 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
888.
Post 12959937 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
2h PSAR flipped to bearish on BTCChina and Bitfinex.
889.
Post 12960293 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
2h PSAR flipped to bearish on BTCChina and Bitfinex.
Seems to be an unreliable indicator
In this case, it was misleading...
Oh shit...
890.
Post 12963661 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
2h PSAR flipped to bearish on BTCChina and Bitfinex.
Seems to be an unreliable indicator
In this case, it was misleading...
Oh shit...
Your short term technical indicators have no power here.
Well done, bulls... You made me close my short at a loss, but fortunately I didn't buy into this fools' mini-rally.
Failure to break resistance IMO will result in the formation of a larger triangle that will break down in a couple of days.
891.
Post 12966690 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
IMO in a couple of hours either start a pump to 360$ and crash from there (after some sideways) or just crash.
892.
Post 12967501 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
IMO in a couple of hours either start a pump to 360$ and crash from there (after some sideways) or just crash.
What about just a pump?
It would have to pick up some fuel and interest on the way up then. Volume is paltry, relatively speaking.
With this volume it can't go either up or down. I'd lean towards a pump, and would jump on one, but I'd need to see volume first, and very small corrections.
893.
Post 12968265 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
IMO in a couple of hours either start a pump to 360$ and crash from there (after some sideways) or just crash.
What about just a pump?
It would have to pick up some fuel and interest on the way up then. Volume is paltry, relatively speaking.
With this volume it can't go either up or down.
I'd lean towards a pump, and would jump on one, but I'd need to see volume first, and very small corrections.
So far looks like a legit pump and I jumped on it.
894.
Post 12972966 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
suddenly i had this bearish feeling come over me and i sold all my bitcoins.
see you all sub 300 suckers!
Seriously?
I think you could wait a bit longer. But yes, pumps failed and it seems we'll test support at 300$ within a week.
895.
Post 12976122 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.34h):
Weird moves on Stamp, 356$ then immediately drop to 325$... Other exchanges less amplitude, but still weird, I'm not trading this shit until I understand what's going on...
896.
Post 12976474 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.34h):
...
It really wasn't that big of a move. I'm sorry to tell you, but my rule is that the less I trade the more money I make. You just have to be patient and not try and be cute and hang on every little move.
The market is at a crossroads. It could break up or down, with large amplitude and potential large profits for those who get on board.
So traders are trying to get early on the train, whatever the direction, because missing the start could lead to a 50% potential profit miss.
897.
Post 12981415 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.34h):
310 in 1 hour or never.
I'd be satisfied with 310$ in 2 h...
898.
Post 12982033 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.34h):
310 in 1 hour or never.
I'd be satisfied with 310$ in 2 h...
You use to be bigger bear...
Grrr, not satisfied...
899.
Post 12989593 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.34h):
Both 1h and 2h PSAR flipped to bullish, but first on western exchanges, China was slow at this.
900.
Post 12989660 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.34h):
We get this above 345 and it's
ON Well, this could be a bit of a problem... I plan to close 50% of my long just below that, to lock some profits, and others may think the same...
901.
Post 13055918 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.34h):
Turkish F-16 shoots down Russian Su-24, markets react (especially the Turkish lira down), bitcoin doesn't give a shit...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-24/turkish-f-16-shoots-down-russian-su-24-warplane-near-syria-border
902.
Post 13074044 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
Bears?
I think we could see a correction down to 335$ here. Just to recharge... Order books are thin.
Not yet... FOMO is strong in the market... I'm sorry I didn't max my long yesterday...
903.
Post 13097115 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
Looks like pump time to me...
904.
Post 13105430 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
China has been lagging, but now seems to breakout too.
905.
Post 13105579 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
China has been lagging, but now seems to breakout too.
do you still see this topping out at 400 tzupy?
Maybe even 420$. But that depends on how this will unfold during the next two days.
If the flow of fiat into Chinese exchanges, reflected in the bid sum, will continue, it could reach 500$ again or higher.
906.
Post 13109301 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
Heavier than expected resistance at this level, especially at OKCoin.
PS. closed my long seconds before it broke down...
907.
Post 13109504 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
maybe i should paging tarmi and tzupy... tell them not to short atm. but well, maybe they can fuel the next bullrun to 500 usd EDIT : 5000 usd
Funny... But I don't plan to short yet, maybe about 4 - 5 days from now, if this really runs out of steam.
908.
Post 13111046 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
Heavier than expected resistance at this level, especially at OKCoin.
PS. closed my long seconds before it broke down...
broke down? didn´t you get the memo? price will touch 390 today.
I must have gotten the other memo, that said 390$ may have to wait...
909.
Post 13118086 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
Damn, missed this shorting opportunity... I woke up and it looked like there is time, so I went to the bathroom, came back minutes later and saw the fresh red dildo.
910.
Post 13118941 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
Come one dumpers, you can do it... one more effort... you only hit my bid at 355$, how about the lower ones?
911.
Post 13123764 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
I am confused. Does anyone know whats going on with the price.
HELLO!
i know where price is going at all times what would you like to know?
OK Adam, let's try this: what will happen 3 - 4 hours from now, a dump or a pump?
I have a small long since 354$ and am leaning towards a pump, in which case I'll max the long and close it tomorrow, hopefully around 400$.
In case of a dump I'll close the small long to avoid losses, but I won't short (yet, need a clearer picture).
912.
Post 13129933 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
If I were trading I'd be screaming "BULL TRAP" right now.
Well, I hope not yet... I jumped on this pump at 354$ and hope to close my long above 370$.
913.
Post 13131314 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
China is asleep and doesn't follow yet. Time to wake up comrades, and panic buy...
914.
Post 13133337 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.35h):
China is asleep and doesn't follow yet. Time to wake up comrades, and panic buy...
At last, China is waking up. I hope Adam won't get his cheap coins...
915.
Post 13137467 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
What if I Don't
Get to buy back all my bitcoins Don't worry Adam, you'll get your cheap bitcoins and then you'll have to go on vacation for many months, because...
The market was unable to push further, and now a head and shoulders pattern will emerge.
On a personal note, I had lost hope last night and closed my long (from 354$), so I didn't get any profit from the meager pump to 370$.
And now the dumpers missed my (small) bid by 4 cents...
Let's hope they'll have another run.
916.
Post 13138120 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
What do you do if the dumpers merrily dump straight through your (small) bid, and keep dumping down to hellish levels before you get a chance to react? Is that a chance you have to take when trying to catch a falling knife? I was tempted to buy yesterday but I couldn't work out when the dumps would stop.
This wasn't a falling knife, so it was relatively safe to catch. Something close to a falling knife may happen on Saturday, so tomorrow I may open a short.
If that short won't confirm, I'll have to close it at a small loss, so today I tried to make a small profit to balance that future potential small loss.
917.
Post 13143922 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
the next 24 mins will determine the direction of the next 24 hours
I think you are wrong about 24 min (I think it's going to be ~2h), but I hope you are right, because I can barely keep my eyes open, it's 3.45 am my time...
PS. You were a bit wrong about the timing, I was more wrong, but 2h PSAR turned to bearish.
918.
Post 13147147 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
go to sleep little bears you'll wake up to 333$, i promises.
Well, I woke up and no 333$ as promised!
Just kidding, I think we are in a slowly descending bearish channel, with choppy movements (hard to trade), maybe 333$ during the weekend.
919.
Post 13164994 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
China finally dumping, hit me baby, my staggered bids are waiting...
920.
Post 13166157 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
I think we will see $600 within 6 months.
I think we'll see 600$ within a month, or sub 200$ within 6 months.
921.
Post 13166165 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
922.
Post 13169802 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
No panic yet?
923.
Post 13174083 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
Nice wall action on finex :-) 2k bid vs 500ask
I closed my long in it seconds before it was pulled.
924.
Post 13183335 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
Just a couple of hours left for dumpers to break support and crash... If not, some sideways and then a push to about 430$...
925.
Post 13196744 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
So, is the crash near?
IMO this is a prelude, if all goes as planned, crash probably on Friday morning.
926.
Post 13196996 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.36h):
Warning: I bought back at $402, probable crash incoming because my luck is usually terrible.
Sweet! Wished I could have caught 402.
Gotta set your buys before the price goes there, Pretty damn hard to catch falling knives.
You got that right. I'm up so I'm not complaining. I'm normally
2 bucks under the lows and miss em.
You are not the only one...
927.
Post 13203682 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
welcome back TERA
Despite the fact that rationally I should be unhappy at seeing good traders enter the competition, it's good to see you back man !
+1
As for trusting the exchanges, if you want to trade bitcoin, there's not much of a choice...
Chinese exchanges have been faking volume, as exposed here, to paint a more bullish look of the market.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1278313.20
928.
Post 13204529 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
Huh... Some Chinese threw a spanner in my bearish works...
929.
Post 13207577 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
so, sheeps are 99% long, okcoin bots are down, inb4 the margin call begins.
i thought that was the funding... ie usd available to go long...
=== not many ppl go long yet
That pic is just 1h sentiment, to get a more comprehensive image go here:
https://bfxdata.com/sentiment/longshort
930.
Post 13235432 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
Seriously, you guys are still counting BTC/CNY volume on Huobi and OKCoin? Get a clue.
Thinking is kinda what we do here now. Old-timer.
Calling me 'old timer' only adds to my point here. Nearly two years ago I left, when all of this Chinese bs was going on, and when I came back I expected was ample time for the Chinese to be completely capitulated and out of the market, and that that fake CNY volume would be completely debunked. In fact it is well known that the CNY volume is fake and it was even way back then. Coindesk doesn't even include those exchanges in it's calculation. USD and adoption are supposed to be running the show now, but here we still have jokers talking about how 'the imaginary chinese whale dumped his 80,000btc/cny on Huobi'.
Except that it's not USD and adoption running the show, if it were so then price would be sub 200$.
The largely fake Chinese volume, with apparently Huobi leading, is driving the price.
931.
Post 13245821 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
Perhaps some think this is next
Possible if the flow of fiat into Chinese exchanges stops, but there is no evidence of this yet.
So far IMO this may or not push a but higher, then deflate over 3 - 4 days and test support at 400$, after that we'll see.
932.
Post 13246439 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
nice detail. this shows that bitcoin will win
ING executive:
Buitenhek said that one of the driving forces behinds the bank's efforts to explore bitcoin and the blockchain that underlies it is the fact that a large number of its staff had already been experimenting with the technology on their own initiative.
“Two years ago – somewhere in 2013 – we started to look at this. We found out that over 100 of our IT staff were playing with applications of blockchain, including bitcoin. We didn’t even know about it.”
http://www.coindesk.com/ing-all-our-business-lines-involved-in-blockchain-exploration/That's because bank employees had to process fiat transfers to exchanges.
933.
Post 13249423 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
After the pump failed, I think it's time to test support (it may take several days of slow downslide). Planning to buy back around 400$.
934.
Post 13250076 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
After the pump failed, I think it's time to test support (it may take several days of slow downslide). Planning to buy back around 400$.
u should buy metals low instead of buying bitchcoin high.
So... you think 400$ support won't hold... I will only buy after I'll see it holding and some bullish indicators.
935.
Post 13250545 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.37h):
Freakin' Chinese, the pump triggered a bullish 6h PSAR flip...
936.
Post 13259976 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
Come on, bulls... You can pump this another 10$ (but NOT much more that that!) so I can open my short...
937.
Post 13261288 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
Closing prices vs. candle peaks has been interesting to watch lately, across more than one time scale (6h, daily, weekly).
12 hr has been my favorite timescale as of late, rather bullish looking these last few months... Yet still long enough that fluctuations are at least a little dampened.
If we can assume that the market has turned and we are now in a majority bullish market, what would it take to revert to a bear market at this point?
Thanks,
The PBoC to stop fiat flux to the exchanges.
938.
Post 13265040 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
Bitcoin foundation may shut down next year due to lack of funds:
http://www.coindesk.com/harper-janssens-exit-bitcoin-foundation/
939.
Post 13276445 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
IBM, Linux foundation and big banks launch Open Ledger Project:
http://www.coindesk.com/ibm-launches-open-source-blockchain-project-backed-by-linux-and-big-banks/I wonder if the Chinese care about this, if they do they should dump hard.
940.
Post 13308778 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
I think this has hit the bottom and it is time for a nice fat bounce. Some traders will have hard time to cover their shorts on Bitfinex.
not much shorts to cover
I tried to close my short, but something is wrong at Bitfinex, didn't properly execute, so my profit is diminishing. Also doesn't look right at Bitcoinwisdom.
941.
Post 13308866 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
I think this has hit the bottom and it is time for a nice fat bounce. Some traders will have hard time to cover their shorts on Bitfinex.
not much shorts to cover
I tried to close my short, but something is wrong at Bitfinex, didn't properly execute, so my profit is diminishing. Also doesn't look right at Bitcoinwisdom.
Not the only exchange that is misbehaving today....
was locked out of both Huobi and Kraken as the obvious precipice approached.
Actually it executed at the right price, but didn't show up for several minutes. And now it's kicking again at Bitcoinwisdom.
942.
Post 13309315 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
...
I'm surprised you're actually still trading on Bitfinex. It has more problems that MtGox had.
I have a Kraken account, but am not currently using it. The level of complaints about reliability seems higher for Kraken...
943.
Post 13360567 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.39h):
Damn... The Chinese again started a crash while I was asleep... Waited until 3.30 am for it, but they do it at 5.30, grrr...
944.
Post 13494532 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
Nice spike in BDD...
945.
Post 13532864 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
This makes me feel sorry I didn't max my short, maybe I'll get another chance on the rebound tomorrow morning...
946.
Post 13533017 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
This makes me feel sorry I didn't max my short, maybe I'll get another chance on the rebound tomorrow morning...
Do you remember Jan.14.2015?
I don't understand the relevance, but I do remember, I closed my short at 178.7$, not optimal... shrug...
947.
Post 13533148 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
This makes me feel sorry I didn't max my short, maybe I'll get another chance on the rebound tomorrow morning...
Do you remember Jan.14.2015?
I don't understand the relevance, but I do remember, I closed my short at 178.7$, not optimal... shrug...
Well, as a permabull my little worry is that we had a finex crash both in aug 2014 and aug 2015. So, since Bitcoin is mostly for speculation atm, there might be unease in the market about jan 2016. An unease that someone easily could take advantage of. I seriously doubt that we'll see anything like a 50% drop, but 10-15% shouldn't be impossible.
For comparison I am not looking at January or August, I am looking at 17 - 18 March 2015, but with market movements taking 2 - 3 times longer.
948.
Post 13566478 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.40h):
With the latest dumps, daily MACD crossed to negative on all exchanges, including mainland Chinese ones.
949.
Post 13574364 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.41h):
The volatility IMO is due entirely to the hard fork. A big player (likely miner) sold at 450 because they know what is coming.
The most obvious explanation is Mike's ragequit, which got wide exposure in the media (NYT, Motherboard, TechCrunch, Reuters, ...) It was also
commented in Chinese forums. I can't think of any other suiltable explanation for the sudden drop.
After all this time, prof Stolfi hasn't learned TA. Mike's drama made the drop deeper, but it was coming anyway.
950.
Post 13652781 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
Why is total output volume spiking to values not seen since 2012?
951.
Post 13709149 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
Wow, my manipulation posted 5 hours ago in Afrikoin's thread really worked, we are going down hard!
Now seriously, this triggered a 12h PSAR flip to bearish on all exchanges. Also, daily MACD looks very unlikely to recover soon.
952.
Post 13718839 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
IMO crash got delayed... Made me close my short at a small profit... I hope I won't wake up tomorrow at 300$.
953.
Post 13737037 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
First green shoots on the 30min chart. We're going higher.
Please go higher, I am counting on a little pump to open a new short.
954.
Post 13765448 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.43h):
955.
Post 13793935 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.43h):
I would like to see a proper, hold onto your hats, wtf is this, holy M"£)£IKJSADFer! crash - it has been a while !
Patience, it will come... The market just needs some bad news as an excuse to start it.
956.
Post 13818995 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.43h):
Western exchanges want to crash, but Huobi and other Chinese don't follow (yet).
957.
Post 13865125 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.43h):
UPDATE: I now have a 80 coin short in. Want to make it 160? 320? keep pumping, cripplecoiners.
Wow... you are braver bear than me... I shorted 2 days ago, when 12h MACD divergence looked ready to cross into red,
and then had to close the short at a small loss, so now I'm waiting, it may crash this weekend or climb to 400$ and then crash.
Anyway IMO support at 300$ must be tested, even in a bullish scenario.
958.
Post 13907378 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.44h):
959.
Post 13908773 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.44h):
...
Why am I the only one apparently concerned by this? Everybody cool with Chinese government's hand on the kill switch?
I am not concerned with this at all... Should provide a massive shorting opportunity.
960.
Post 13932187 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.44h):
...
I imagine a coin where blockreward gets reduced by 10% a year instead of dramatic halvings. Blocksize scaling is built in at predictable intervals. Mining is done on the the more secure SHA512 or something more quantum computer resistant. It may have a full Turing-compliant scripting language for smart contracts, etc.
You mean... bitcoin done right... I am afraid it is too late for the old bitcoin we are trading, too complicated to change... better start anew...
961.
Post 13949019 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
The misguided bullishness tells me the time for a short is near, probably 12h from now.
962.
Post 13959860 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
Bull party is over!
963.
Post 13965189 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
All the income in the gox data above is listed as JPY. Does that mean they've already liquidated any BTC, that the BTC hasn't been sold but is still listed at the current exchange rate, or that the BTC isn't included in these numbers?
AFAIK no MtGox bitcoins (of the remaining 202k) have been auctioned yet. For distribution, the rate is 1 Bitcoin = USD483 = JPY50,058.12
964.
Post 13972638 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
With Consensus reached wouldn't it be time we get above the $500 mark this week?
I guess it depends on what you mean by "consensus."
The poll results look like two wolves and a lamb voting what to have for lunch.
965.
Post 13982899 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
966.
Post 13985627 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
Where's the moon I was promised
Maybe it's a special kind of moon?
967.
Post 13992163 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
968.
Post 13999637 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
969.
Post 14000105 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
970.
Post 14017338 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
Blocks are full again. I think this will now probably happen any time the market tries to pump.
I don't see much upside but there's a lot of potential downside.
The bulls have a couple of days to break resistance at 450$. If they fail, there will be a lot of panicky downtrend.
971.
Post 14019649 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
...
don't worry the "stable price" we've been seeing for past 48hours (420-425) is almost over, it's decision time.
>70% chance it resolves down IMO
Actually I expect a little pump first, fail to break resistance and then down. And the evolution of the bid sum on Chinese exchanges favors a pump.
I might shit myself if the pump does break resistance though...
972.
Post 14021890 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
...
don't worry the "stable price" we've been seeing for past 48hours (420-425) is almost over, it's decision time.
>70% chance it resolves down IMO
Actually I expect a little pump first, fail to break resistance and then down. And the evolution of the bid sum on Chinese exchanges favors a pump.
I might shit myself if the pump does break resistance though...
no way it's going to crash hard, any second now.
Where's the resistance Tzupy? Maybe around $438, or would you place it higher, like $448? I personally consider it to be around $438... but I'm just kind of guessing (like most of us).
The (little?) pump started, as for resistance, I guess about 15$ from the starting point, in the bearish short term scenario. If it breaks 450$, I'll buy the next dip.
973.
Post 14033214 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
...
don't worry the "stable price" we've been seeing for past 48hours (420-425) is almost over, it's decision time.
>70% chance it resolves down IMO
Actually I expect a little pump first, fail to break resistance and then down. And the evolution of the bid sum on Chinese exchanges favors a pump.
I might shit myself if the pump does break resistance though...
no way it's going to
crash hard, any second now.
Where's the resistance Tzupy? Maybe around $438, or would you place it higher, like $448? I personally consider it to be around $438... but I'm just kind of guessing (like most of us).
The (little?) pump started, as for resistance, I guess about 15$ from the starting point, in the bearish short term scenario. If it breaks 450$, I'll buy the next dip.
As I expected, the little pump hit heavy resistance, and now we have a nice dump.
Hard crash could start tomorrow, now it's a bit early IMO, needs to break support at 415$ to persuade the panic sellers.
974.
Post 14039285 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
...
As I expected, the little pump hit heavy resistance, and now we have a nice dump.
Hard crash could start tomorrow, now it's a bit early IMO, needs to break support at 415$ to persuade the panic sellers.
I'm glad that you seem to have been only partially correct on this.
and we seem to be back on our way up? There may be a decent possibility that we break through the $438, this time and give $448 a run for its money...
Then comes $467... I am having my doubts about being able to penetrate either the $448 or the $467 in the coming several days, but never say never in bitcoinlandia.
Yeah, this doesn't look bearish, so IMO no crashing today, and if 12h MACD divergence turns green, it's possible to break 450$, later 500$...
975.
Post 14040367 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
...
As I expected, the little pump hit heavy resistance, and now we have a nice dump.
Hard crash could start tomorrow, now it's a bit early IMO, needs to break support at 415$ to persuade the panic sellers.
I'm glad that you seem to have been only partially correct on this.
and we seem to be back on our way up? There may be a decent possibility that we break through the $438, this time and give $448 a run for its money...
Then comes $467... I am having my doubts about being able to penetrate either the $448 or the $467 in the coming several days, but never say never in bitcoinlandia.
Yeah, this doesn't look bearish, so IMO no crashing today, and if 12h MACD divergence turns green, it's possible to break 450$, later 500$...
Just go ahead and short it on max leverage anyways which is what comes natural to you, nothing possibly could go wrong amIrite?
No, thank you, I'll wait for the right time to short with max leverage. But it seems that time is not now.
976.
Post 14042508 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
977.
Post 14062847 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
Statement today from Prohashing:
We're a business. Altcoins are now cheaper to use than bitcoin. Therefore, we use altcoins wherever possible. Businesses exist to earn money, and bitcoin is now cutting into our profits by siphoning off fees and wasting developer time in answering angry customer service "you're stealing my money because I never received it!" E-Mails.
This original post isn't some deceit to try to game people into buying or using altcoins for whatever reason. It's simply a statement that we can provide better service by issuing payouts in litecoin or any of these other networks. If we can encourage people to use altcoins, we can increase everyone's profit by cutting fees, and we can also write more features because we won't have to spend time reassuring customers that we aren't thieves.
Feel free to disagree on the merits of the post, but I don't think it's helpful to assume bad faith.
Live and learn
This could be the turning point, altcoins that can be easily converted into fiat start to replace bitcoin.
Early adopters see the danger and start hedging, that is... dumping bitcoins!
978.
Post 14071172 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
979.
Post 14072664 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
Decision point comes closer. And it doesn't look good for Bitcoin.
Transferred 100% out of cold storage into several exchanges.
Hodler for 4 years no more.
Interesting... just a few days ago you were all up uP UP! May I ask what made you change your mind?
980.
Post 14072921 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
Decision point comes closer. And it doesn't look good for Bitcoin.
Transferred 100% out of cold storage into several exchanges.
Hodler for 4 years no more.
Interesting... just a few days ago you were all up uP UP! May I ask what made you change your mind?
I thought we as a community would get our shit together. And as everything points to a decision point for (several month ) in the first decade of March, I thought this only could mean up. Now, as the decision point is around the corner, I think I could have been totally wrong and from here we could see the slow bleeding death of Bitcoin.
I observed my own behaviour for several month. Even in Jan. 2015 at $160 I bought a hell of coins, because I believed in the community. Since then no new money (from me) entered the Bitcoin space despite I still am expanding my crypto holdings. I think I was wrong and the decision point means down not up for bitcoin.
Edit: I left fiat because I couldn't agree with how it works. If I stay with Bitcoin while I feel the same, it is kind of self-betrayal.
Thank you for the detailed answer. So you lost faith in the community, and maybe many others feel the same, so now you are preparing for the worst, this makes sense to me.
From an EW perspective, things don't look so bleak yet. The current wave structure could lead to a testing of support at 300$, that I have been expecting for a long time,
and almost lost faith in my own analysis. If this testing will happen, only after another month or two will it be possible to say if the bear market is back or not.
981.
Post 14094520 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
982.
Post 14096019 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.46h):
12h MACD is about to cross into negative. Last time this happened price dropped from 430$ to 350$.
983.
Post 14104515 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
Anyone buying bitcoins at 400$+ 320$+ is irresponsibile and deserves to lose their money.
FTFY
984.
Post 14105210 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
12h MACD is about to cross into negative. Last time this happened price dropped from 430$ to 350$.
Yesterday I warned about the possible crash, but Adam was still seeing triple bottoms...
985.
Post 14105850 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
Thank you for this. Looks like newcomers trying to displace first (or second, or third) movers.
986.
Post 14107394 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
i'm fairly certain this drop is pricing in Core/Blockstream 's hard headedness
No Adam, it's China... The bid sum / ask sum on Huobi, arguably the lead exchange, took a nosedive, and price followed.
987.
Post 14108525 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
28 million in leveraged longs on BFX. Shorts barely changed. This is a dangerously unstable situation. Every one of those longs have to close at some point, either at a profit or a loss. It amounts to massive overhead resistance.
Where the hell is the pump gonna come from? Halving is priced in. SegWit is priced in even though it may not happen or happen on a longer time frame than expected. Global economic stability? Bitcoin lost 5% in a day, hardly a safe haven asset, especially given the current governance situation.
Bitcoin is a honeybadger, so price may go up, but if it does, it will be in spite of fundamentals, not because of them. There can be no sustainable rise without a permanent scaling solution.
The most important part is that 8 M$ are new longs opened since 21st February, when price was 450$, so they are underwater now, and more down could trigger a long squeeze.
988.
Post 14143859 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
989.
Post 14146569 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
Come on piglets, you can do a little pump for me, I need to max my short before the crash...
990.
Post 14148256 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
Come on piglets, you can do a little pump for me, I need to max my short before the crash...
A crash is coming? Are you talking about $380 again, $360 or lower?
Are you calling this a pre-halving crash?
Hm? We could really get tricked by this kind of probably crash thinking and sell our bitcoins when the price shoots up to $467 and maybe higher.
I'm gonna continue to play conservative with my stash even though I am getting a bit more worried about whether there is enough steam for upward momentum. I'm thinking that my worry could be a sign that upward momentum may come, but I'm not holding my breath..
I think that both of us have the sense that if prices get into the $470s or above, then we likely heading in at least the lower $600s... but we gotta get to the $470s first.
I believe we are in the middle of a complex correction, but within a larger bullish trend, at least so far.
So my favorite scenario is a small pump, followed by a triangle that will break down, and then daily MACD will cross to negative, a good reason for a crash.
991.
Post 14164647 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
992.
Post 14164663 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
993.
Post 14167843 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
Pft deterring fees will occur automatically as the block reward disappears. At a price of 500$/BTC it would work out like this:
1 block (25 bitcoins) created every 10 minutes -> for each minute, 2.5 bitcoins are created X $500/bitcoin = $1250/minute.
So every minute $1250 in fees needs to come from transactions (instead of the block rewards today)
Using 10 transactions/sec as maximum speed (with current block size), 600 transactions each minute.
$1250/600 transactions = $2,08 per transaction.
Even higher BTC price -> even higher fees.
Edit: and if you use 5 tx/s instead of the theoretical 10 tx/s the amount doubles.
Yup. What's wrong with $4 a transaction? Totally fine. $40 a tx is fine too ....
the problem is see with that is that it isn't very competitive...
poeple will start using centralized BTC payment processors
poeple will start using altcoins
and the idea that we can't do better then 5tx/s is insulting
make segwit
make block interval 2.5mins
make block size 8MB
there i've solved bitcoin scaling!
Sure... and in the process make the blockchain grow by 1TB / year instead of ~30GB / year... good thinking...
994.
Post 14175291 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
We are approaching an inflection point, the next couple of hours might make the bears happy...
995.
Post 14189380 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
Soon enough it'll be just the two of us, Lambie. Then just you.
No, I assure you that if bitcoin will enter a new and deep bear market, I'll be here and rave about my shorts...
996.
Post 14194056 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
A little pump started, I hope this will reach 430$. I partially closed my short and plan to max it on this pump.
997.
Post 14210149 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
...
If there is another serious test of $500 resistance, I will indeed get out and I won't ever come back unless there is a change in governance at a minimum. I'm looking for that safe port to disembark.
Another
serious test of 500$ resistance would break it, and then better wait for 650$ to get out...
Of course, I am counting on a failed test to break 450$, and then a nice crash.
998.
Post 14250527 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
The thread is luckily not dead.
Based on my observation over the past 5 years, each time the thread got boring , we were close to a MAJOR price move...
So it will be this time, too...
Of course there's a correlation of this thread's posting activity and market volatility. And yes: after the rain there will be sunshine.
Up or Down?IMO chances are high that the big triangle will break down tomorrow.
999.
Post 14251133 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
IMO chances are high that the big triangle will break down tomorrow.
Except your account was sold and is now run by some Zionist banker shills. Entire post history is "omg price is crashing to $1 tomorrow!
Rampant delusion... I became a bear since I noticed artificial pumps, during the summer - autumn of 2013. Later those pumps became known as the work of Markus and Willy.
And I never claimed a crash to $1 tomorrow. But I do post when I smell a bearish move, although I may be wrong.
1000.
Post 14251770 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
Of course, I am counting on a failed test to break 450$, and then a nice crash. Your posts are dog shit because you're just a flat out propagandist liar. This is the only one where you even speak a glimmer of truth. That you want the price to crash so you can buy. You don't actually think the price is going to crash, you just spam non-stop "omg the price is going to crash to $1 at any second" praying that it does.
People who do nothing but lie 24 hours a day are called sociopaths and psychopaths. The fact that you think this is acceptable behavior means you are a trash human and should probably do some self introspection to fix yourself. Whether someone is my friend or enemy, I have no need to lie to either.
Except that you are the liar. In one sentence you managed to lie 3 times: "account sold" - that never happened; "Zionist banker shill" - I am not a zionist nor a banker; and the third with "crashing to $1 tomorrow".
I am not going to extrapolate this to 24 hours and call you names, other can draw their own conclusions.
I do speak my book, as do most of posters here. And so far the price has failed to break 450$, so right now the bearish scenario is more probable, and I am counting on it.
The MACD is negative in 1h, 2h, 6h, 12h and 1d time frames, 6h and 12h PSAR have flipped to bearish yesterday, so it does look promising for the bears.
If there will be a crash, I expect to test 300$ support, that's something I have been waiting for a long time. My bids (to close my short) are now in the 300$ - 320$ area.
1001.
Post 14258974 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
1002.
Post 14260237 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
1003.
Post 14269888 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
Give me a sign!!!!!
OH? That's the sign?
Should I sell now in order to be ahead of the game?
Even with that charting of a breaking down in China, I am only slightly bearish for the next 3% break out... maybe 52.75% betting on down...
The mid $420s resistance has been proving a bit more formidable than I had expected, and possibly could be a few more weeks to get passed that point.
I do understand that when we are suffering from overall relative low volume, that leaves quite a bit of control to manipulators.. and it seems that bears tend to push their agenda a bit more in the low volume scenarios... and recently no one seems to getting too excited about possibilities of getting left behind.
Despite the worsening market indicators, price has been more resilient than I expected.
Two months ago, similar indicator crossings resulted in large drops. Now I am trying to figure out how much slower the current market is moving.
1004.
Post 14279543 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
Give me a sign!!!!!
OH? That's the sign?
Should I sell now in order to be ahead of the game?
Even with that charting of a breaking down in China, I am only slightly bearish for the next 3% break out... maybe 52.75% betting on down...
The mid $420s resistance has been proving a bit more formidable than I had expected, and possibly could be a few more weeks to get passed that point.
I do understand that when we are suffering from overall relative low volume, that leaves quite a bit of control to manipulators.. and it seems that bears tend to push their agenda a bit more in the low volume scenarios... and recently no one seems to getting too excited about possibilities of getting left behind.
Despite the worsening market indicators, price has been more resilient than I expected.
Two months ago, similar indicator crossings resulted in large drops. Now I am trying to figure out how much slower the current market is moving.
Don't fight it, Tzupy.
I recall earlier that you had recognized an overall uptrend, so even if we are having a large number of downward price pressures, there is only so much that the price can be pushed down when the overall trend remains up.
I am not fighting the market... Since it became obvious that the crash window was missed, I closed my short.
Am not going long yet, I seriously doubt the bulls can pump to 450+ (480 would be right) to keep the upward channel viable.
I currently believe the bulls will try to build the new higher high and will fail, and then the panic selling will begin.
Even if they will succeed, there will be a correction afterwards to get back in, at maybe 5-10% higher than current price, so I won't miss much.
1005.
Post 14301638 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
I"M BACK BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
OK. Now, to prove your allegiance to this forum, you need to troll your own thread in the other forum, and get banned there.
1006.
Post 14333199 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
At last, the expected pump, I hope this fakeout will reach at least 430$... BTW, I went long 5 minutes ago.
1007.
Post 14350486 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
1008.
Post 14351736 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
Fuck... I closed my short at 415$, didn't expect such a large sudden drop. This quickly went from hugging the upper BB in 12h and 1d to the lower. Also flipped 12h and 1d PSAR to bearish.
Now I have to wait for another good short entry. Is there some bearish news to explain this sudden and rather large drop?
1009.
Post 14356389 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
Has Adam joined a smear campaign against bitcoin?
1010.
Post 14357147 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
I think it's time for a little pump, I need one since I foolishly closed my short at 415$...
1011.
Post 14375603 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
1012.
Post 14378088 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
More like, whale missing in action... Whale(s) forgot to turn on the fake volume bot, or did it on purpose, for some unknown reason.
1013.
Post 14379722 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
Even though you seem thrilled to find and post bearish bitcoin news, those articles could also be read as bullish... - especially the second one because in the end, there seems to be quite a bit of decentralized decision-making and investment going into bitcoin, that signifies that individuals (and small companies, and maybe even governments) will be continuing to invest in bitcoin's computing power and into securing the blockchain (as well as attempting to control some of the mining process).
Good ole competition may well cause a computing power arms race in respects to bitcoin. Even if it seems to be wasteful, it surely shows anticipated ongoing interest.
Plenty of permabulls here, happy to post bullish news, I'm just playing for the other team.
About market direction, IMO if during the next 2 days there won't be a pump that turns 6h MACD to positive, then we'll crash.
If there will be a pump, we'll still crash after that, but from a higher price point...
1014.
Post 14386553 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
Crazy prediction:
Craig Wright IS Satoshi Nakamoto and is going to destroy the Millions of coins he holds to proof it.
Would you mind specifying how will he DESTROY coins?
1015.
Post 14390188 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
Crazy prediction:
Craig Wright IS Satoshi Nakamoto and is going to destroy the Millions of coins he holds to proof it.
Would you mind specifying how will he DESTROY coins?
send them to invalid uᴉoɔʇᴉq address -> coins destroyed
further reading:
https://medium.com/@alcio/how-to-destroy-moondollars-255bb6f2142e#.fvpfi04ziedit: 1BitcoinEaterAddressDontSendf59kuE seems like a good start
that seems to be a slight flaw in uᴉoɔʇᴉq. if uᴉoɔʇᴉq goes mainstream there will be people who do that by accident because their brains are coated with fluoride and aluminum, and in some case lead. just ask juangee, he knows about that .
there is a checksum in uᴉoɔʇᴉq addresses
you cannot send funds to an invalid address wallets make sure the address you are sending to is a valid address
"1BitcoinEaterAddressDontSendf59kuE"
is valid but thats only because the person that created it knows how to compute the checksum.
1Bitcoin
sEaterAddressDontSendf59kuE
is invalid.
If I understood correctly, a properly coded wallet should forbid sending to an invalid address, but a buggy one could allow this.
1016.
Post 14434905 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
Boring price action and off topic posts... I may as well post something off topic but interesting (launch of Pascal):
http://www.anandtech.com/show/10225/the-nvidia-gtc-2016-live-blog
1017.
Post 14470203 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
Bitcoin stable, ETH about to crash hard (I hope so).
Moved funds to exchange, hoping to catch a falling ethereal knife.
1018.
Post 14499230 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.48h):
1019.
Post 14511696 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
1020.
Post 14547755 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
Daily PSAR flipped to bullish on Chinese exchanges, damn bulls...
1021.
Post 14547913 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
Daily PSAR flipped to bullish on Chinese exchanges, damn bulls...
bye ... don't let the door hit your butt on the way out?
haha, permabull humor... or was it not?
Just FYI I had a small long and added to it on the PSAR flip. Will take profits around 440$ if this looks weak (and will crash),
or wait with profit taking until 470$, where this should correct anyway. But I would have loved a nice crash to 300$ instead.
1022.
Post 14579483 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
The evolution of the bid sum on Huobi for the last 30 days suggests an upcoming pump.
1023.
Post 14580610 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
The evolution of the bid sum on Huobi for the last 30 days suggests an upcoming pump.
Tzupy bullish...
One ticket to the moon please...
...
And about bitcoiners. We're paying poor children in India to pump Bitcoin.
Bullish? That's too much to say. I am 1.5x long, and looking for a strong Chinese pump to add to my position upto 3x.
If there will be no pump soon, within a week, there will be no moon (actually, rally to ~800$), within 2 months.
1024.
Post 14593307 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
What are the origins of segwit? Was it long proposed as a nice idea by multiple people or did it arrive out of nowhere from a single source and tickle everyone pink?
SegWit was presented by Blockstream's Pieter Wuille to the world at the end of the second Bitcoin Stalling conference in Hong Kong. The video of his talk should be on YouTube. Apparently it was a surprise to most people there, except Blockstream folks of course. Indeed I would say that Blockstream planned the conferences to be just a stage for the SegWit announcement.
According to Pieter himself, he thought of SegWit some time ago, but put it aside because he believed that it would require a hard fork. But then Luke Dash Jr. found a way to make SegWit into a soft-fork type of change, by using a script hack and redefining one of the NOP opcodes. That made it possible to deploy it in Blockstream's favorite "stealth mode". (That is, the change is effective as soon as a miner majority adopts it, whether full nodes, users, and businesses like it or not.)
AFAIK, the only significant improvement that SegWit brings is to fix various malleability problems in one go. Even that benefit could be obtained much more cleanly by other means, without changing the block and transaction format; but this cleaner solution would require a hard fork, and also the discarding of Pieter and Luke's ingenious hack -- so obviously it could not happen.
I haven't heard of the "fraud proofs" in a while. In the initial description, they seemed to be more "hints" than "proofs"; and it was never clear how they would be used, and for what.
One interesting "benefit" of SegWit was to make people aware that soft forks are actually more dangerous than hard forks. With SegWit's "extension record" trick, a soft fork can achieve many of the taboo changes that were thought to require a hard fork; such as increasing the block reward (and therefore the 21 million issuance cap) or confiscating coins. As soft forks, those changes would require only the agreement of a mining majority, without the consent of the rest of the community. However, for that same reason, there is nothing that the community or the developers can do to prevent non-consensual soft forks.
It's good to see you around, Prof Stolfi! I thought you lost interest in Bitcoin and were attending other issues, like this:
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Processo_de_impeachment_de_Dilma_RousseffAnyway, it would be nice to know more about the possibility of increasing the block reward by a soft-fork, backed only by a miner majority.
1025.
Post 14593929 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
Thank you, I wasn't aware of this. But to make it work, a consensus between the majority of miners and the developers would have to be reached.
Or a cartel of miners that has the required hashing power could hire their own developer team and replace the current team, like a miner's coup?
I'm interested about this possibility since it should provide a massive shorting opportunity.
1026.
Post 14593977 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
chinese cartel in action. preventing a price above 2793-2795 to avoid new miners coming into the game. seems the have tons of bitcoins available.
https://snag.gy/4tpVj5Hmm... I was counting on a Chinese pump to break above 2820 CNY within 2 days. If this won't happen, then the market will have made a lower high,
and then probably a lower low, which means a downtrend will become apparent.
1027.
Post 14608474 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
13,822 BTC shorted on Finex.
When history doesn't repeat itself, these suckers are gonna be #rektforlife. And this just may be that time.
Logged in to post that. Shorting bitcoin is a really great idea every single time until..oh shit.
Stop spreading misinformation, shorts on BFX have been declining for the last 3 days, they dropped about 1k today.
If you want to post something bullish, it's that this possible rally is not yet fueled by new longs.
1028.
Post 14615096 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
Already posted this possibility 3 days ago, but it will only become true if the market defeats resistance at 480$ and holds above for a while.
Can Huobi and OKCoin drag the western exchanges up with them? Maybe, or maybe not, we shall see during the next month.
1029.
Post 14618749 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
Bitfinex is down now.
We'll be right back
TEMPORARILY UNAVAILABLE
We will be back online shortly. Sorry for the inconvenience.
1030.
Post 14621010 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
Damn it was off on the poll by one day! Can we get a new poll now? We need a new target
I realized now that I also voted >450, I must have been drunk, like in Trading Under Influence...
1031.
Post 14635541 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
A chart that should make bitcoin permabulls jealous:
1032.
Post 14641445 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
This forum should have a maximum limit for nested quoting, this is annoying.
1033.
Post 14650260 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
Oops, OKCoin dumps, rally must take a break. I closed my long earlier today for a tiny profit, 447 to 455.
1034.
Post 14661919 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
You bulls realize this is just a reflection of the chickun rally, huge buys of LTC on Chinese exchanges?
1035.
Post 14671791 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
1036.
Post 14673763 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
The chickun went ballistic, especially on Chinese exchanges.
1037.
Post 14681824 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
1038.
Post 14682299 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
1039.
Post 14728978 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
so after bitcoin creator unmasked, and people trust craig wight is satoshi nakamoto the price will be back to $500 ?
Market's reaction suggests back to 300$...
1040.
Post 14729370 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
so after bitcoin creator unmasked, and people trust craig wight is satoshi nakamoto the price will be back to $500 ?
Market's reaction suggests back to 300$...
Frequently, you can be a reasonable guy, but comments like these are just way too much....
I didn't say "300$ right away", did I? But this dump is damaging the bullish scenario, so the probability of testing 300$ increases.
I wasn't shorting, on the contrary I had a small long, and the dump triggered the stop loss.
1041.
Post 14733466 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.49h):
Craig Wright better buy us up back to $452 asap
Yeah right... I believe that even if he is not Satoshi, he now has more wealth in bitcoins than in fiat, so...
1042.
Post 14745163 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.50h):
Nice ask wall on Bitfinex, part of a risk reduction strategy. He should spread it though...
1043.
Post 14754634 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.50h):
This is just from the Craig Wright media exposure, which could turn into bad publicity. Don't pin your hopes on it.
1044.
Post 14765869 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.50h):
I see a fairly decent sized wall, and no one is talking about it here. Now I have the sad.
Edit: Wall shrinks
Yeah, Bitfinex wall grew from 1.5k to 4.5k, then shrank back. But it was enough to make me close my long at a tiny loss (slippage and fees).
Let someone else attack that wall with force, then maybe I'll take a little bite too. I was expecting a little pump, but with low volume a 4.5k ask wall should hold.
1045.
Post 14791426 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.50h):
ive said this many times, halving is priced in, those that want to buy already have. There is not enough buy support to maintain a pump. Theres waaaay to many people hoping to dump on noobs at $600+...problem is even the noobs now use google and have access to a wealth of information unlike 2013 when everybody was a noob,lol.
BTC is gonna dump real hard in the next month or so..probably back to $300s over summer...then watch out for oct ( good times begin again)
BTC will pump but only after the scalabilty issue is solved ( cmon dr wright, make that super computer do sum magic ) 2017 btc will be $1k+
bear logic: it will crash so i can buy back lower and THEN it will rocket to the moon. duh!
How about another bear logic: let some guinea pigs try to break resistance at 500$, reach about 550$, then I'll buy the next dip, because it should reach 700+.
1046.
Post 14792584 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.50h):
ive said this many times, halving is priced in, those that want to buy already have. There is not enough buy support to maintain a pump. Theres waaaay to many people hoping to dump on noobs at $600+...problem is even the noobs now use google and have access to a wealth of information unlike 2013 when everybody was a noob,lol.
BTC is gonna dump real hard in the next month or so..probably back to $300s over summer...then watch out for oct ( good times begin again)
BTC will pump but only after the scalabilty issue is solved ( cmon dr wright, make that super computer do sum magic ) 2017 btc will be $1k+
bear logic: it will crash so i can buy back lower and THEN it will rocket to the moon. duh!
How about another bear logic: let some guinea pigs try to break resistance at 500$, reach about 550$, then I'll buy the next dip, because it should reach 700+.
Your bear logic on the night of May 5th didn't work. You said the 4.5k ask wall should hold, went to bed, and straight afterwards the price shot up over $15 while you slept. You left some guinea pigs to break resistance, and they did it. What if the guinea pigs do it again?
I see a fairly decent sized wall, and no one is talking about it here. Now I have the sad.
Edit: Wall shrinks
Yeah, Bitfinex wall grew from 1.5k to 4.5k, then shrank back. But it was enough to make me close my long at a tiny loss (slippage and fees).
Let someone else attack that wall with force, then maybe I'll take a little bite too. I was expecting a little pump, but
with low volume a 4.5k ask wall should hold.
Point taken. Bitfinex chose to follow the Chinese market leader, despite this:
I later opened a small long at 452$ and closed it a bit higher, I believe the market is now forming a triangle, and I'll buy back if it breaks up (but hope it will break down
).
1047.
Post 14792644 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.50h):
this is ridiculous, pop over 460 already.
Yes, this is ridiculous, unless something is fishy with the order book of the market leader, we should be already above 500$, yet we are not...
1048.
Post 14888246 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.50h):
spike back to 460 imminent
I got a feeling
time is now
buy or die
Some early adopter has a different opinion...
1049.
Post 14966514 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
1050.
Post 14967413 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
So even after taking out the one claim for $2.3 trillion, there are still $32 billion of claims... And $91m of assets.
32 billion $ you say? What are you smoking, I want some too...
It's about 415 million $ of accepted claims.
But there is no mention of the 202k BTC auction, I am very disappointed...
1051.
Post 14986412 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
sold at 470, then watched it climb up & up!
ugh!
you want bears? cos this is how you get bears!
Should be a time in memorial lesson, never use all your fiat nor sell all your BTC.
just a bit, but it still hurts after being so strong for so long!
psychological damage more than financial but still. kicks self
where the shills at? come back!!!
i really need you tonight, forevers gonna start tonight... etc
I guess you will panic buy at 450$ the next days, which is OK. But you will probably "forget" to sell at 570$...
1052.
Post 14998405 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
Correction time, nice dump on BTC-E...
1053.
Post 15003362 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
Market leader Huobi is going to run out of steam...
1054.
Post 15003433 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
Market leader Huobi is going to run out of steam...
Except you're a known shill and every single one of your posts claims the price will "crash any second"
Here's one of your last useless HERP DE DER posts. Looks like that May 24th prediction didn't work out too well huh, shill?
The evolution of the bid sum on various exchanges does not support a bullish scenario.
The cockroach ate most of my post, so here it is whole. The current 50$ or more difference between Huobi and western exchanges is reflected in it.
The evolution of the bid sum on various exchanges does not support a bullish scenario. Compared with December with a top of 475$, the bids are now much lower on
western exchanges, down to 50% on Bitstamp. On Huobi, I suspect a whale / miner bullish manipulation: some 30 - 40 million CNY have been added to the bids during the
last month, but without a real intent on buying, or we would be over 500$ already. Those bids have been pulled every time a minor dump occurred.
Daily MACD has crossed to negative on Bitfinex and Bitstamp, but not on Chinese exchanges yet. So IMO the market is vulnerable to bad news, especially from China.
A possible bad news could be the auctioning of the 202k BTC during the MtGox distribution, which could be announced tomorrow (or not, distribution by BTC would be bullish).
If the auction(s) will take place, this could trigger 2 tests of the bottom support, one on the announcement, the other on the auction. After the distribution by fiat
I would expect a rally, fueled by FOMO buying with the newly available funds.
PS. Found a scenario that is in line with my expectations.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/bRHCR1I2-Bitcoin-The-End-of-an-Era/And my next post, before he pump was:
The Chinese pumpers are about to invalidate my scenario (short term bearish, medium term bullish), and may give RyNinDaCleM's scenario the first row.
In such case, here is how I would expect this to happen, a bit slower if the current timings are to continue:
1055.
Post 15003622 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
Someone is trying very hard to suppress price w/ giant 650 coin wall @ 497 on Stamp
Does it get eaten? Pulled?
They're going to have to try harder than that. Remember in November '13 when someone (Mark?) put up 10,000 BTC @ $200 on Gox?
I remember, but it was at 260$, and made me panic sell. Bought back after it was eaten.
1056.
Post 15012996 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
Someone who sees how thin the bids are, and just wants to lock profits?
1057.
Post 15021982 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
The Chinese ran out of steam, while western exchanges were trying to catch up...
1058.
Post 15034421 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.51h):
Dear bears
Thanx for the loading opportunity...
You are welcome, but these are not the real bears, they are Chinese traders who want to lock profits.
1059.
Post 15089727 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.52h):
Breakout denied!
1060.
Post 15168244 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.52h):
Is it me or both whoboi and okcoin turned down their random volume generators? Only seem to multiply volume on actual trades vs. constantly generating volume
Low volume is normal, it will pick up if a clear direction will be chosen.
1061.
Post 15168818 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.52h):
The train is leaving. Where is everybody?
Waiting for China?
1062.
Post 15181542 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.52h):
My inner bear was telling me to short at 675$, but I didn't have the balls to...
At least I placed bids around 565$, hoping to catch the falling knife. And had the pic prepared in Photoshop, posted at the right time in Memespeculation.
1063.
Post 15188762 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.52h):
Within an hour we should know if the Chinese can pump one more time, or we crash directly.
1064.
Post 15188955 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.52h):
Huobi running out of steam...
1065.
Post 15207349 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
Nice dumps!
1066.
Post 15207440 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
BFX feels sluggish, probably is ddosed.
1067.
Post 15207462 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
Funny, BTC and ETH crash together!
1068.
Post 15209747 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
ok week hands Its your turn to shine
DUMP!
looks like weak hand be holding fiat
bears are fucked.
Adam remember that bear are always fucked with BTC!
Look I found a photo of Tzupy:
F U !!!
1069.
Post 15228154 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
Fucking bulls, this could flip the 6h PSAR to bullish!
1070.
Post 15228251 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
Fucking bulls, this could flip the 6h PSAR to bullish!
Just flipped, damn... I went long earlier today at 685$, but since it looked slumpy 2 hours ago I closed at 692$... Aargh!
1071.
Post 15234421 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
I closed half of my long at 754$, hoped to close more before the dump, but... no luck. Will increase my long position at the bottom of the correction.
1072.
Post 15243715 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
I was stuck in an airport for the first top and I was terrified but by some miracle it went back up so btc could have it's first ever double top.
The first double top:
1073.
Post 15243856 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
That's a 1H chart
more fitting?
Not at all...
1074.
Post 15253742 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
after carefully analyzing the chart for 5mins i conclude that we are STILL going to the moon.
Yeah... I think it will take a couple of days until we'll know if we're getting one last leg up or just crash.
1075.
Post 15257794 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
This makes me happy that I waited for a clear direction, and didn't go blindly long.
1076.
Post 15258213 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
Once we pass $800 it could still easily drop to $750 before going back up
No, if we pass 800$ it's going above 900$, we'll know in 12 - 18 hours.
1077.
Post 15262817 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
once we hit
747
this thing is going to take off.
Passengers of the last (and doomed
) flight please return to the lounge, takeoff is delayed by a couple of hours.
1078.
Post 15265854 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
Pump starting again tomorrow when china wakes up?
Hopefully although we may have to wait until fresh fiat hits the exchanges on Monday?
No, pump must start today, or...
1079.
Post 15267572 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
once we hit
747
this thing is going to take off.
Passengers of the last (and doomed
) flight please return to the lounge, takeoff is delayed by a couple of hours.
Passengers of the last (and doomed
) flight please commence boarding, the pilots are not sober yet and
the fuel tank is only half full, but we will try to give you the ride of your lifetime...
1080.
Post 15269418 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
Heavy resistance, especially in China. If this goes sideways for another hour, it will start looking corrective...
1081.
Post 15270593 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
Heavy resistance, especially in China. If this goes sideways for another hour, it will start looking corrective...
It did... and the dump triggered my stop loss... so just a tiny loss...
1082.
Post 15270616 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
Heavy resistance, especially in China. If this goes sideways for another hour, it will start looking corrective...
One of these times you're bound to be right. until then... CCMF
How about now?
1083.
Post 15270708 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
once we hit
747
this thing is going to take off.
Passengers of the last (and doomed
) flight please return to the lounge, takeoff is delayed by a couple of hours.
Passengers of the last (and doomed
) flight please commence boarding, the pilots are not sober yet and
the fuel tank is only half full, but we will try to give you the ride of your lifetime...
Ladies and gentlemen, due to limited fuel we had to perform an emergence landing... Pilots have sobered now but the fuel tank is empty...
Joking aside, I didn't expect this to escalate so quickly, I didn't have time to decide to short, all happened too quickly...
1084.
Post 15271283 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
Things could be dumping much lower and we'd still be trending upwards
right. all the way down to $430 or so (stamp).
Nope. Any significant drop under 500$ favors the bearish scenario, the lower the worse.
So
buying and holding from 430$ would carry a high risk, because of the high probability to drop below 200$.
1085.
Post 15271404 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
Things could be dumping much lower and we'd still be trending upwards
right. all the way down to $430 or so (stamp).
Nope. Any significant drop under 500$ favors the bearish scenario, the lower the worse.
So
buying and holding from 430$ would carry a high risk, because of the high probability to drop below 200$.
did u hear that everyone ?? he said btc is going below $200.00.. we should all sell.
Did you forget to put glasses on, or what? I didn't say BTC is definitely going below 200$, but that dropping significantly below 500$ increases the risk for that to happen.
1086.
Post 15277881 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
more high quality tits on bitcoin for price increase!
NSFW image.You do realize this is double top, and is usually quite bearish?
1087.
Post 15285550 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
This strong rally has attracted only minor attention:
1088.
Post 15291964 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
This strong rally has attracted only minor attention:
Why don't you identify about what the chart refers?
Sorry about that, I posted it just before going to sleep... It's Google trends.
What I meant to depict is that the rally was driven by new Chinese speculators,
and the western exchanges tried to follow, this is not (yet) a new global enthusiasm phase.
1089.
Post 15298903 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
This is breaking down and BFX still does "investigate a platform issue"... Grrr...
PS. Looks like it's holding for now, we'll see tomorrow morning...
1090.
Post 15299478 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
They changed their mind, 15 mins longer: "Updated trading restart time. We restart trading at 00:15 UTC. From now to 00:15 UTC users can cancel active orders. New orders will be accepted after 00:15 UTC"
In the meantime China broke down.
1091.
Post 15299508 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
Froze again...
You can not place new orders.
1092.
Post 15299532 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
Froze again...
You can not place new orders.
maybe a glitch and you could only put new sell orders
No. Last trade is "6.61 6 minutes ago"
1093.
Post 15301285 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.53h):
I don't think we can call BFX dead quite yet. Too much damn money flowing into that place. Would have to be a hell of a coke habit to blow that.
They are probably closing everyone's positions before reopening. Brace yourself for the cries of indignation. Why can't I go long on trader outrage.
That might be the safest of the options, to close everyone's position (at least within a 5 to 10% range of the current price)
I don't think they did such a thing. Anyway, my short that I placed at 743$, but was executed at 727$, was left unchanged.
And now, back to sleep...
1094.
Post 15306614 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
Bitfinex is on again, I was able to close my remaining short at 651$.
1095.
Post 15308047 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
A correction which was due, but triggered early by Finex panic, perhaps. Either way, up from here.
Not so fast, a correction like this is not resolved within a day. I expect at least a double bottom and perhaps a deeper correction to $610 level or $570. Could take 2 more weeks or longer before we resume the uptrend.
Typically, the market builds a triangle that breaks up. But I believe that mini-rally will become a bit of a bull trap.
1096.
Post 15320035 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
what happen to the moon shot guys ??
1097.
Post 15332169 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
If we've not reached the summit
Then Bitcoin plummet
This:
Try to adapt the proportions of that, in your head, and apply it approximately for what is happening now!*Edit: I am not 100% sure, because the market is more mature now and those chaotic dips might have been due to a more panic driven traders in the early days.It's an interesting observation, and according to that chart, we should bottom around 380$.
1098.
Post 15334856 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
We are starting to get mainstream breakthrough.
But..
Umm..
30% drop in less than a week, not looking very safe...
1099.
Post 15335575 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
Last chance to buy @ $5xx
1100.
Post 15345402 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
pretty tame reaction tbh. price hovering around 650$ is quite disappointing after such a gross move. markets are down like 5-10% and bitcoin more or less the same? strange.
Bitcoin price has nothing to do with Brexit. So far, the retracement is about 56% of the correction, it may reach 62% today or tomorrow, then more down.
1101.
Post 15369122 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
Yesterday's bounce made me close my short... Oh well, another missed opportunity...
1102.
Post 15371284 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
Support broken!
Didn't expect this... Waiting for a long entry, but this is getting bearisher...
1103.
Post 15410313 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
Will the Chinese pumpers be able to pull a small pump, before a large dump, like 7th - 16th January?
1104.
Post 15445580 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
1105.
Post 15487323 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
1106.
Post 15507505 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
The dump is taking a pause, maybe it will resume during the weekend.
1107.
Post 15515634 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
I'm laughing at people that try to short the halving.
In a couple of days you may laugh at me. And we'll see who laughs last...
1108.
Post 15526564 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
Bitcoinwisdom and cryptowat.ch are not available, probably ddosed. Forum next?
1109.
Post 15526768 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
1110.
Post 15533921 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
So where's the big rise
Just wait some 2 months and you'll see it
By this graph, the price is now (July 2016) about 200$, so I call BS.
1111.
Post 15540764 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
Chinese bulls got me worried... The bid sum on Huobi has grown, and the triangle may break up... yikes!
1112.
Post 15551339 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
The big triangle should break one way or another several hours from now.
Previously the bid sum evolution on Huobi looked bullish, but now the asks have reached an ATH of 54k BTC.
1113.
Post 15616035 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
I can't believe this fuckin shit. I was about to put in a 20x long position at that drop when we dropped to 655 on stamp.
If we go don't go below there ever again...
May have to do with the 3x on finex
Well, I panic bought with 3x at 675$... Let's see how this goes, but IMO could reach 1200$, in 3 - 4 weeks.
1114.
Post 15638538 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
So far there's not enough fiat on exchanges to push up fast. But if 630$ holds, a rally is still possible.
1115.
Post 15691866 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):
635 is coming
one last good drop before we continue on moving forward
thats my wish.
Careful what you wish for, Adam... A drop to 635$ would trigger a bearish PSAR flip not only on 1d but also on 1w, so...
1116.
Post 15694132 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):
This little pump triggered the 6h PSAR flip to bullish, on BFX and OKCoin, so chances for a crash next days are low.
1117.
Post 15792182 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):
Security breach on Bitfinex
Today we discovered a security breach that requires us to halt all trading on Bitfinex, as well as halt all digital token deposits to and withdrawals from Bitfinex.
We are investigating the breach to determine what happened, but we know that some of our users have had their bitcoins stolen. We are undertaking a review to determine which users have been affected by the breach. While we conduct this initial investigation and secure our environment, bitfinex.com will be taken down and the maintenance page will be left up.
The theft is being reported to — and we are co-operating with — law enforcement.
As we account for individualized customer losses, we may need to settle open margin positions, associated financing, and/or collateral affected by the breach. Any settlements will be at the current market prices as of 18:00 UTC. We are taking this necessary accounting step to normalize account balances with the objective of resuming operations. We will look at various options to address customer losses later in the investigation. While we are halting all operations at this time, we can confirm that the breach was limited to bitcoin wallets; the other digital tokens traded on Bitfinex are unaffected.
We will post updates as and when appropriate on our status page, bitfinex.statuspage.io. We are deeply concerned about this issue and we are committing every resource to try to resolve it. We ask for the community’s patience as we unravel the causes and consequences of this breach.
bitfinex.statuspage.io,
support@bitfinex.comGreat!Just great!
Couldn't get any better! Could it?
Idiots!
I can't believe this shit...
1118.
Post 15801760 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):
Yes, it's a DCB. To complete the correction, one more leg down, of lower amplitude, is required.
1119.
Post 15832604 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):
1120.
Post 15838866 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):
The BFX "hack" increasingly looks like an inside job, I wonder if those involved are on the run...
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitfinexs-ceo-seemingly-tried-start-ponzi-scheme/
1121.
Post 15860189 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.56h):
how the F thinks bitfinex is worth 1billion?
6 poeple have voted for this option lol
You should have added a negative value option. Without it I had to vote less than 9 million...
1122.
Post 15879986 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
Price is coming back.
$666 soon after Bitfinex comes back up.
More like new ATH on BFX, if others will do the same as me...
1123.
Post 15880250 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
Withdrawal option still not available for BTC
Or other crypto... In the end I bought LTC and will move to Kraken ASAP.
1124.
Post 15880394 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
Withdrawal option still not available for BTC
Or other crypto... In the end I bought LTC and will move to Kraken ASAP.
Withdrawal is open now...just waiting on my e-mail.
No withdrawals yet... Fuck...
Your account is currently on withdrawal hold. All withdrawals will be held in a Pending Approval state until the hold is lifted. The most common triggers of a withdrawal hold are account password changes and the changing of certain security settings. Please contact
support@bitfinex.com with questions or concerns. This hold will be lifted at August 13, 2016 14:31.
1125.
Post 15880456 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
Withdrawal option still not available for BTC
Or other crypto... In the end I bought LTC and will move to Kraken ASAP.
Withdrawal is open now...just waiting on my e-mail.
No withdrawals yet... Fuck...
Your account is currently on withdrawal hold. All withdrawals will be held in a Pending Approval state until the hold is lifted. The most common triggers of a withdrawal hold are account password changes and the changing of certain security settings. Please contact
support@bitfinex.com with questions or concerns. This hold will be lifted at August 13, 2016 14:31.
In other words...everyone's trying to withdraw! Stop before we have no more money!
Yeah, but my reason to buy LTC for withdrawal was that no LTC were stolen, as opposed to the 120k BTC missing. So there should be more LTC actually available for withdrawal ASAP.
1126.
Post 15890446 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
Buttfiness foiled my plan to gtfo via LTC (still not enabled LTC withdrawals) so I had to buy BTC and withdraw, which just completed the transfer to Kraken.
1127.
Post 15894619 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
I have a feeling that early in the week when all the password restrictions on bfx are expired, everyones gonna be putting their dollars into btc to get them the hell out of there. surely this will push us back up to near 700
Umm... no. The restrictions didn't apply this time, and many have already left. The bid side is now about 10x smaller than before the "hack", the ask side about 8x smaller. So Buttfiness is irrelevant now...
1128.
Post 15913155 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
Verify:
OKcoin get fined by The Higher People's Court of Heilongjiang Province,the judge is finished at July 14th,and put online at July 29th.This judge is beyond most people's awareness because the company and and other peer companies didn't want to spread the news until today(20160813) The Securities Times(in Chinese is 证券时报）criticized that blockchain trading should be subject to legal supervision by describing a recent case in a passage without naming the defendant is OKcoin.
As we all know,Chinese authority’s attitude towards bitcoin is restricting the use and prohibiting bitcoin links to the Substantial Economy.Since this judge is the first judge that the major Chinese bitcoin exchange is the defendent,we can get some real concerns of the athority by analyzing the judgments.
○The business on OKcoin is illegal
"Lekuda company’s main business is OKCOIN ,which is a virtual currency exchange.It provides customers with a web space to exchange virtual assets and it profits by charging its clients fees (0.2%-0.4%) . Its dealings in accordance with the the 22nd Case of Network Management of Transactions (in Chinese 《网络交易管理办法》. According to this law,if the company wanted to provide online trading business,it should register at the administration of Industry and Commerce and get a business license.Lekuda company registered business scope only include such areas:technology development, transfer of technology, technical services, technical marketing, consulting and investment management.Trading bitcoin for profit-making purpose is beyond the range permitted by the administrative authorities . "
→ It shows OKcoin runs the business without approval
○OKcoin(it refers to okcoin.cn) is not recorded at the Telecommunications authorities of China "To the end of the trial, Lekuda failed to provide related materials recorded at the Telecommunications Authority registration .The address/domain name record information is not stamped with the seal of the Department, and it could not prove its effectiveness "
→In China,every online service provider should be registered at the Telecommunications authorities. It shows OKcoin lacks the recorded approval documents ,so it cannot provide online service in mainland China
○OKcoin failed to strictly review the real names of every user,which makes it easy for money washing by bitcoin This case is caused by a criminal utilizing the loose review of user's real names in OKcoin .The criminal first cheated a company a large sum of money(12 million RMB,or 1.8 million US dollars),then used ID cards bought online to open up an acounts at OKcoin,at last used the money to buy Bitcoins and withdrawed in Macao.
→Since the Chinese authorities prohibited any third-party payment services linking to bitcoin trading in 2014,the exchanges in China had to use the the accounts of its employee or other companies,a loose review of the real names increase the risk of money laundering,which the Chinese authorities would not like to see.They are afraid of the money flee from China.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4xjtcw/okcoin_fined_by_chinese_court_for_helping/Thank you, this is something to keep an eye on. It could turn very bearish if Chinese authorities would decide to shut down the mainland exchanges.
1129.
Post 15935115 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
monkey is looking for downside through next sunday, roughly. also bearish through at least mid-September. supports are 561, 537, 490, 444, 224
BAhahahahaha 444, 224!!!!!
your monkey will turn bullish as fuck again when we find bottom at 520
444$ is a possibility, I have bids in that area on Kraken. But 224? Aminorex, are you sure your monkey isn't actually a bear?
1130.
Post 16055757 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
1131.
Post 16121625 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
There is a large triangle formed during the last 4 weeks, it should break one way or another in less than a week.
If it will break up, it won't go far IMO, but could form the wave 1 of a new rally.
But if it will go up nicely, close to 750$, then correct, then this would be very bullish IMO.
1132.
Post 16126023 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
There is a large triangle formed during the last 4 weeks, it should break one way or another in less than a week.
If it will break up, it won't go far IMO, but could form the wave 1 of a new rally.
But if it will go up nicely, close to 750$, then correct, then this would be very bullish IMO.
Did you hit your head, Tzupy?
You are coming off as a bit more bullish than usual.
Getting anywhere near the $700s would be a nice little treat for us "hanging in there" for the past couple of months, including the early August crash.
No, I didn't sustain any head or other injury. But it's nice of you not to accuse me of selling my account to some permabull...
I didn't say that it will break up, although I lean that way. I suspect that most of Chinese pump money is still on exchanges and could be put to use soon.
While it won't break the 790$ of June, a near future bullish development could strengthen the case for a larger bullish scenario.
1133.
Post 16136787 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
There is a large triangle formed during the last 4 weeks, it should break one way or another in less than a week.
If it will break up, it won't go far IMO, but could form the wave 1 of a new rally.
But if it will go up nicely, close to 750$, then correct, then this would be very bullish IMO.
Did you hit your head, Tzupy?
You are coming off as a bit more bullish than usual.
Getting anywhere near the $700s would be a nice little treat for us "hanging in there" for the past couple of months, including the early August crash.
No, I didn't sustain any head or other injury. But it's nice of you not to accuse me of selling my account to some permabull...
I didn't say that it will break up, although I lean that way. I suspect that most of Chinese pump money is still on exchanges and could be put to use soon.
While it won't break the 790$ of June, a near future bullish development could strengthen the case for a larger bullish scenario.
Hehe, BFX decided to break the triangle sooner, and others try to follow.
1134.
Post 16764823 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
1135.
Post 16897728 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
At last the western piglets are trying to catch up with China!
1136.
Post 16936824 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Lovely dumps, but my bids are a bit lower, so please continue...
1137.
Post 16956619 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
PSAR is bullish from 15 min to weekly, it's hard to get more bullish than that.
1138.
Post 16989023 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Good AM Bitcoinland.
Negligible change since yesterday... $749USD/$1011CAD (Bitcoinaverage).
It's been pretty flat this week. What will the weekend bring? Down before up? Simple move upward? More sideways?
Even if it dips, I seriously doubt it will go much below $720.
In a couple of days there should be another attempt to break resistance. If it fails to, then the uptrend will be broken and we'll test support and we'll have a boring 2017.
1139.
Post 17086875 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
Current small bitcoin dump may depend on the large LTC dump.
1140.
Post 17183714 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
For now, I think we've topped. It took too long to get up here and it's not looking impulsive.
So I am expecting a 25% correction, which could take a couple of months to reach the bottom.
After that, slow up with corrections, for most of 2017, break the ATH only in 2018.
I am not at all happy with this scenario, because a slow market is killing me...
1141.
Post 17313491 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
On Bitstamp the 12h PSAR flipped to bullish, on Chinese exchanges it's close but not yet.
1142.
Post 17313543 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
On Bitstamp the 12h PSAR flipped to bullish, on Chinese exchanges it's close but not yet.
You know what it means when even Tzupy gets bullish
.
Flipped now on OKCoin too. This could mean a new major leg up, or that we are close to the top of the current leg up and a sizable correction will follow soon.
1143.
Post 17360674 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
I am expecting, in a couple of hours, the last pump of this rally, taking us to about 1100$, spending a couple of days there before crashing 40%.
To be sure of catching it, I had to wake up early on the 1st January, grrr...
1144.
Post 17361681 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
I am expecting, in a couple of hours, the last pump of this rally, taking us to about 1100$, spending a couple of days there before crashing 40%.
To be sure of catching it, I had to wake up early on the 1st January, grrr...
1) There is not going to be a 1 or 2% dump before the pump? You could be correct, we have had a few dump attempts, already.
2) I was thinking a kind of similar pump range of about $1,060 to $1,180, ish.. so you and I are in a similar ballpark in that respect... though I think that there is a chance that price could break upwards through such resistance and the resistance at that level is not inevitably going to cause a price reversal..
3) After reaching $1,100-ish, I can see a dump of 15% to 25%, but 40% seems quite a bit too high and too optimistic (given the current circumstances) - unless some facts change.. but then again, that is why you have a bear as your avatar and I have a fairy dancer... hahahaha.
Pump started, 6h PSAR flipped to bullish on Chinese exchanges. Not let's see if it can break resistance at 7007 CNY. On the other hand, I could have slept a couple more hours...
1145.
Post 17364145 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
I am expecting, in a couple of hours, the last pump of this rally, taking us to about 1100$, spending a couple of days there before crashing 40%.
To be sure of catching it, I had to wake up early on the 1st January, grrr...
You could have had a nice lie in today instead of getting up early for that pump to about 1100$. A piddley $10 pump was all we got.
Resistance broken on Chinese exchanges. The pump does look more valid now.
1146.
Post 17364434 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
^^^^^
Actually Kraken has trouble following the Chinese exchanges.
1147.
Post 17364859 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
And look at the volume. This is not rally level volume. Things are just starting.
Or things are about to end. IMO the rally will top within 2 days and then crash 40%.
1148.
Post 17371047 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
While Chinese exchanges are consolidating, hopefully before another (probably last) push, the western ones are at last trying to catch up.
1149.
Post 17371400 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
Bitcoincharts stopped displaying exchange charts since yesterday, about 16 hours ago (just data from that point is missing). Anyone knows why?
1150.
Post 17371772 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
$900 - $1000
$1000 - $1100
And when 1100$ - 700$...
1151.
Post 17387885 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
2h PSAR flipped to bullish on OKCoin, looks like the last part of the pump will unfold today (and then crash, of course
).
1152.
Post 17392947 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
I just closed my long. I believe it's very little upside left, and not worth the risk, better to lock in profits.
1153.
Post 17394662 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
I just closed my long. I believe it's very little upside left, and not worth the risk, better to lock in profits.
via Imgflip Meme GeneratorActually, I was probably the only sane person posting today, which is sad...
The top was near, and now it's profit taking time, who dumps first dumps best.
1154.
Post 17394807 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
I believe it will work, just wait another 12 hours. If I'm right, this was just a tiny dump, a larger one should follow in about 12 hours.
1155.
Post 17395066 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
I believe it will work, just wait another 12 hours. If I'm right, this was just a tiny dump, a larger one should follow in about 12 hours.
It's possible, but I doubt it.
A large one *will* follow, but it's not time yet.
How large do you think?
About 3x the amplitude of this small dump, if the bearish scenario is favored, we'll see soon...
1156.
Post 17395392 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
I believe it will work, just wait another 12 hours. If I'm right, this was just a tiny dump, a larger one should follow in about 12 hours.
But you predicted a pump to about 1100$ on New Year's day. You got up early for it, but it took another four days to go that high. What makes you think you can be so accurate today when your New Years's day prediction was out by four days?
I am expecting, in a couple of hours, the last pump of this rally, taking us to about 1100$, spending a couple of days there before crashing 40%.
To be sure of catching it, I had to wake up early on the 1st January, grrr...
If it does crash I think it will be a small correction, not a 40% correction. It could carry on up past the Gox ATH without many downs.
When I predicted the last pump to about 1100$ I didn't claim it would happen in 1 day (or other time frame), so I wasn't "out by four days".
If the next larger dump will happen in about 12 hours, then I expect the Chinese to build a large triangle that should break, probably down, in another 4 - 5 days.
And the 40% correction is the whole ABC, the A and C should be each about 30%.
1157.
Post 17396659 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Hmm, this isn't looking as bearish as I'd like... Maybe the Chinese will pull an extension?
1158.
Post 17404731 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
I believe it will work, just wait another 12 hours. If I'm right, this was just a tiny dump, a larger one should follow in about 12 hours.
It's possible, but I doubt it.
A large one *will* follow, but it's not time yet.
How large do you think?
About 3x the amplitude of this small dump, if the bearish scenario is favored, we'll see soon...
well, tzupy, I guess you were wrong.
Embarrassing... I counted the 1 - 3 - 5 of the 1 and called the top, but the real 3 and 5 were yet to come...
The 3x amplitude of a future correction may still happen in China, but western exchanges didn't properly follow, so they will drop less.
1159.
Post 17404971 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
I believe it will work, just wait another 12 hours. If I'm right, this was just a tiny dump, a larger one should follow in about 12 hours.
It's possible, but I doubt it.
A large one *will* follow, but it's not time yet.
How large do you think?
About 3x the amplitude of this small dump, if the bearish scenario is favored, we'll see soon...
well, tzupy, I guess you were wrong.
Embarrassing... I counted the 1 - 3 - 5 of the 1 and called the top, but the real 3 and 5 were yet to come...
The 3x amplitude of a future correction may still happen in China, but western exchanges didn't properly follow, so they will drop less.
Exceeded my wildest expectations!
Unfortunately for me, I rationally closed my short just before the largest part of the dump... shrug...
1160.
Post 17405052 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Hey podyx, who doesn't know what he's doing now?
1161.
Post 17405088 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
huobi froze and wouldn't let me trade any of that..
It's a conspiracy..
Maybe circuit breakers or something...
Btw... who made more than 10% on this madness ?? I could have, but closed my short too early, so only made 1 / 3 of the potential...
1162.
Post 17405845 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Crazy that a dump like that can alter the price in a space of minutes.
So i guess it's a good thing right? There are limited coins and always will be. If someone holds a large number and dumps their coins or a large amount of them they will be bought up by a big number of people therefore spreading the coins around and preventing another dump of these particular coins in one go.
So, (if that makes sense) am I right in saying the more of those sudden dumps we have is a good thing long term as it spreads btc around?
Please feel free to tell me I am typing pure horse shit if that's the case.
Both the FOMO top and the big dump on OKCoin and Bitfinex were ridiculous IMO. If this is good or not for bitcoin...
1163.
Post 17406880 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
I JUST WOKE UP
DO I PANIC SELL OR PANIC BUY??!?!?!?!
Soon it will be time to panic buy.
1164.
Post 17407095 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
This is getting weird... There should be some very bad news, otherwise I can't explain this by TA...
1165.
Post 17418313 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.
1166.
Post 17418537 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.
Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY.
1167.
Post 17419291 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.
Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY.
China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream.
1168.
Post 17419350 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.
Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY.
China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream.
I never margin trade, but this is a moment I would expect some smart types to go long.
You still think we have further to go down?
I am not criticising - given your recent prescience, I am asking.
Quite likely to go further down, but not right now. Go long only for scalping.
1169.
Post 17423328 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
If the Chinese don't start dumping within a couple of hours, it's possible to have a bounce until resistance at 7400 CNY.
1170.
Post 17428089 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.
Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY.
China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream.
I never margin trade, but this is a moment I would expect some smart types to go long.
You still think we have further to go down?
I am not criticising - given your recent prescience, I am asking.
Quite likely to go further down, but not right now. Go long only for scalping.
At last the Chinese dumped (as usually, started at 3.45 am my time, while I was asleep), probably completed the second leg down of A. This took too long and almost made me believe it was truncated.
If I am right and the third leg down is to come, resistance moved to about 6300 CNY. I am expecting a small bounce into that resistance, and sideways for two days, then the third leg down.
1171.
Post 17430108 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.
Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY.
China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream.
I never margin trade, but this is a moment I would expect some smart types to go long.
You still think we have further to go down?
I am not criticising - given your recent prescience, I am asking.
Quite likely to go further down, but not right now. Go long only for scalping.
At last the Chinese dumped (as usually, started at 3.45 am my time, while I was asleep), probably completed the second leg down of A. This took too long and almost made me believe it was truncated.
If I am right and the third leg down is to come, resistance moved to about 6300 CNY. I am expecting a small bounce into that resistance, and sideways for two days, then the third leg down.
Someone trading on OKCoin must have read my "resistance at 6300 CNY", because it stopped at 6299 CNY. This correction should bounce from support, and then retest support tomorrow morning.
1172.
Post 17430762 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Hmm, this is looking kind of bullish, so I may buy the next local bottom.
1173.
Post 17440004 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.
Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY.
China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream.
I never margin trade, but this is a moment I would expect some smart types to go long.
You still think we have further to go down?
I am not criticising - given your recent prescience, I am asking.
Quite likely to go further down, but not right now. Go long only for scalping.
At last the Chinese dumped (as usually, started at 3.45 am my time, while I was asleep), probably completed the second leg down of A. This took too long and almost made me believe it was truncated.
If I am right and the third leg down is to come, resistance moved to about 6300 CNY. I am expecting a small bounce into that resistance, and sideways for two days, then the third leg down.
Right when the market was at an inflection point, ready to take the plunge and confirm the third leg down, a LTC pump started and BTC followed soon, so I don't know which way...
1174.
Post 17444798 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.
Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY.
China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream.
I never margin trade, but this is a moment I would expect some smart types to go long.
You still think we have further to go down?
I am not criticising - given your recent prescience, I am asking.
Quite likely to go further down, but not right now. Go long only for scalping.
At last the Chinese dumped (as usually, started at 3.45 am my time, while I was asleep), probably completed the second leg down of A. This took too long and almost made me believe it was truncated.
If I am right and the third leg down is to come, resistance moved to about 6300 CNY. I am expecting a small bounce into that resistance, and sideways for two days, then the third leg down.
Right when the market was at an inflection point, ready to take the plunge and confirm the third leg down, a LTC pump started and BTC followed soon, so I don't know which way...
The market has slowed down, and the Chinese established a critical support at 6100 CNY. If this will be broken, which could happen tomorrow, then the third leg down will be confirmed and A would end soon.
1175.
Post 17444947 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Perhaps everyone here thinks that we are currently replaying October 2013 and haven't even made it to November yet?
Pretty much this^.
Not everyone. I think we could be replaying August 17th 2012.
1176.
Post 17445266 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Perhaps everyone here thinks that we are currently replaying October 2013 and haven't even made it to November yet?
Pretty much this^.
Not everyone. I think we could be replaying August 17th 2012.
Yeah, but you're bearish more often than not. I remain convinced that Bitcoin is a long-term successful moonshot. I remain serene in the face of crashes. Is
now analogous to Oct 2013? Frankly, I have no idea. But it could be. More importantly, some time in the not-too distant future
will be analogous to Oct 2013.
In the meantime, I await -- seated comfortably at my pick-a-nick table -- awaiting mah fine and glorious repast.
If you would think deeper about what I said, you would understand how bullish I am long term.
Hint: what price was in August 2012 and what price in October 2013?
1177.
Post 17447620 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.
Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY.
China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream.
I never margin trade, but this is a moment I would expect some smart types to go long.
You still think we have further to go down?
I am not criticising - given your recent prescience, I am asking.
Quite likely to go further down, but not right now. Go long only for scalping.
At last the Chinese dumped (as usually, started at 3.45 am my time, while I was asleep), probably completed the second leg down of A. This took too long and almost made me believe it was truncated.
If I am right and the third leg down is to come, resistance moved to about 6300 CNY. I am expecting a small bounce into that resistance, and sideways for two days, then the third leg down.
Right when the market was at an inflection point, ready to take the plunge and confirm the third leg down, a LTC pump started and BTC followed soon, so I don't know which way...
The market has slowed down, and the Chinese established a critical support at 6100 CNY. If this will be broken, which could happen tomorrow, then the third leg down will be confirmed and A would end soon.
Support was broken just after I went to sleep, but so far it bounced, we'll see what happens during the next hours, will the drop continue or not?
There is another possibility, that we already completed A and now we are actually during the B... The initial dump was so fast that it compressed the waves and made counting difficult.
1178.
Post 17450980 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.
Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY.
China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream.
I never margin trade, but this is a moment I would expect some smart types to go long.
You still think we have further to go down?
I am not criticising - given your recent prescience, I am asking.
Quite likely to go further down, but not right now. Go long only for scalping.
At last the Chinese dumped (as usually, started at 3.45 am my time, while I was asleep), probably completed the second leg down of A. This took too long and almost made me believe it was truncated.
If I am right and the third leg down is to come, resistance moved to about 6300 CNY. I am expecting a small bounce into that resistance, and sideways for two days, then the third leg down.
Right when the market was at an inflection point, ready to take the plunge and confirm the third leg down, a LTC pump started and BTC followed soon, so I don't know which way...
The market has slowed down, and the Chinese established a critical support at 6100 CNY. If this will be broken, which could happen tomorrow, then the third leg down will be confirmed and A would end soon.
Support was broken just after I went to sleep, but so far it bounced, we'll see what happens during the next hours, will the drop continue or not?
There is another possibility, that we already completed A and now we are actually during the B... The initial dump was so fast that it compressed the waves and made counting difficult.
It looks like the market was moving faster than I calculated and already completed A and we are now in B, possibly already after the top of it.
If the B scenario will become true, I expect to go sideways for the next 4 - 7 days, and then correct 30%, to about 660$ on western exchanges.
1179.
Post 17454032 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
The chikun broke up, let's see how much this influences bitcoin.
1180.
Post 17454242 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
The chikun broke up, let's see how much this influences bitcoin.
What does this mean? Up?
Usually it does, don't know if it will apply now.
1181.
Post 17454452 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
The chikun broke up, let's see how much this influences bitcoin.
What does this mean? Up?
Usually it does, don't know if it will apply now.
If bitcoin would follow the chikun, it would reach 7300 CNY, but bitcoin didn't give a shit.
1182.
Post 17465155 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Next 24 hrs are critical
my triangle says it will tighten towards $910 for Jan 13. itll spend the remainder of the week with people making positions, and then itll pump or dump on the weekend
A pump will be possible tomorrow morning, but I'm not happy about the amplitudes seen so far. I will wake up very early anyway to try to catch it.
1183.
Post 17468894 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Not to be a pessimist, but the chart pattern looks eerily similar to the one that formed back in June/July, just before Bitfinex got hacked.
Wouldn't be surprised if some similar shenanigans were being attempted with Stamp or some other major exchange right now, or over the next few weeks...
(again, not trying to be a downer... but surprises do happen, hope I'm wrong though)
Except that on the 30th June a small pump pushed the price up a bit, while the equivalent pump of today failed.
1184.
Post 17468982 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Not to be a pessimist, but the chart pattern looks eerily similar to the one that formed back in June/July, just before Bitfinex got hacked.
Wouldn't be surprised if some similar shenanigans were being attempted with Stamp or some other major exchange right now, or over the next few weeks...
(again, not trying to be a downer... but surprises do happen, hope I'm wrong though)
Except that on the 30th June a small pump pushed the price up a bit, while the equivalent pump of today failed.
I think that you guys are talking about July/August (and not June/July) because the Bitfinex "hack" happened on August 2.
right?
I am talking about June 30th to July 8th, when critical support was tested. We might test the current critical support later today and probably bounce from it.
When this little pump failed, a number of traders understood the bearish implications and dumped, so the equivalent of the period mentioned above may get truncated.
1185.
Post 17469028 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
It's dumping pretty hard...
Well, there was another reason for dumping, besides the pump failure, look at the chikun...
1186.
Post 17469054 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Not to be a pessimist, but the chart pattern looks eerily similar to the one that formed back in June/July, just before Bitfinex got hacked.
Wouldn't be surprised if some similar shenanigans were being attempted with Stamp or some other major exchange right now, or over the next few weeks...
(again, not trying to be a downer... but surprises do happen, hope I'm wrong though)
Except that on the 30th June a small pump pushed the price up a bit, while the equivalent pump of today failed.
I think that you guys are talking about July/August (and not June/July) because the Bitfinex "hack" happened on August 2.
right?
I am talking about June 30th to July 8th, when critical support was tested.
We might test the current critical support later today and probably bounce from it.
When this little pump failed, a number of traders understood the bearish implications and dumped, so the equivalent of the period mentioned above may get truncated.
That didn't take long, actually OKCoin broke it.
And Huobi too. Is there some new bearish news we don't know about?
1187.
Post 17469922 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
is crypto done??
In China it looks like that. On previous corrections it took several gradual corrections to break critical support, now it's like hot knife through butter...
1188.
Post 17470045 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
is crypto done??
In China it looks like that. On previous corrections it took several gradual corrections to break critical support, now it's like hot knife through butter...
But didnt you say a dump to 660$ was about to happen these days? If so its expected market behaviour
Not so sudden, this is abnormal.
1189.
Post 17479831 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
It looks like the market was moving faster than I calculated and already completed A and we are now in B, possibly already after the top of it.
If the B scenario will become true, I expect to go sideways for the next 4 - 7 days, and then correct 30%, to about 660$ on western exchanges.
It looks like there is a sea behind that mountain or there isn't. Great prediction, tzupy. As always.
The correction started earlier than I expected, because of bad news from China, but so far was only 21% to 24%, instead of my expected 30%.
However this looks bottomish, so this may have been all.
BTW, you posted that you went leveraged long a lot higher than the current bottom, how did that go?
1190.
Post 17479993 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
Tzupy was right. I couldn't imagine this low. So bottom reached or more down?
Can't be sure. But even if this was the bottom, for about a week we could go sideways, building a triangle that would break, probably up, so no need to rush buying.
1191.
Post 17480011 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
This pump and dump is an exact pattern from the last two years, every six months like clockwork bitcoin spikes and then tanks. Forget the Gox-inflated, fake bubble. Bitcoin is probably the most remarkably consistent and predictable investment you can make.
Price will find a floor, price will be volatile, then go sideways, then spike. You have a window of opportunity now to prepare for the next run. If you got burned this time, take a deep breath and realize that your mistake was that you forgot
you were going to just buy and HODL to take your profits FTFY.
1192.
Post 17480848 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
OKCoin is the most bullish on this pump, so I'll watch them.
1193.
Post 17481174 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
OKCoin is the most bullish on this pump, so I'll watch them.
Pump failed... Hmm, will this lead to another leg down? Or at least test support?
1194.
Post 17485219 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
Many thanks for the cheap coins.
Tzupy, where is the final leg of the sell off? I hoped to get some even cheaper.
If this was an ABC, then it's probably completed the C, and now it's building a triangle. Support could be tested over the next days, so a bit cheaper than right now is possible.
1195.
Post 17485541 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
If this was an ABC, then it's probably completed the C, and now it's building a triangle. Support could be tested over the next days, so a bit cheaper than right now is possible.
Aw c'mon mastertzup - you were willing to throw out $660 when we were at $1100 and many called you crazy!
I'd love to know whether the past few days market activity has shifted your number up, down, or unchanged.
Not enough data right now to make an educated guess, I need to find out more accurately how fast the market is moving (or mistake a subwave for a wave).
1196.
Post 17492981 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
Oh shit, after reading this and realizing the possible implications, I will have to be extra careful after opening a long... Planned to open one in a couple of hours...
1197.
Post 17493260 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
Oh shit, after reading this and realizing the possible implications, I will have to be extra careful after opening a long... Planned to open one in a couple of hours...
What possible implications exactly?
A possible 10x drop in Chinese volume, how do you think that would look? Bullish?
1198.
Post 17506952 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
Let's see where the support is now.
1199.
Post 17515353 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
Let's see where the support is now.
the next 24 dumps are critical.
The next several hours (from now) are critical. If we'll have more dumps and test (might even break) support at 5200 CNY, even if it will bounce, a very bearish scenario would become possible.
If however there will be a small pump (that would hold for a while), then further support testing is unlikely to break and should result in a large triangle that should break upwards, with target around 8000 CNY.
1200.
Post 17519989 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
Let's see where the support is now.
the next 24 dumps are critical.
The next several hours (from now) are critical. If we'll have more dumps and test (might even break) support at 5200 CNY, even if it will bounce, a very bearish scenario would become possible.
If however there will be a
small pump (that would hold for a while), then further support testing is unlikely to break and should result in a large triangle that should break upwards, with target around 8000 CNY.
The small pump happened, so far seems to favor the bullish scenario. But remember, the PBoC can trash the bullish TA anytime.
1201.
Post 17597755 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
The next 2 days are critical. If there will be a successful pump, eventually leading to about 1050$ - 1100$, then this will be a EW one, and after months of sideways we'll see 2000$ or more.
If however the pump will fail, then we'll see a major correction, down to about 600$ and the possibility of a new bear market.
1202.
Post 17605027 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.02h):
$900 = buy with all your fiat?
940$ would be cheap, 900$ might turn out quite expensive.
1203.
Post 17793124 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.03h):
It's only midnight there and they were awake 3h ago when this happened
Why would they sell more, and why would they sell at all?
Why would you go to a store to buy goods which you can't take out of the store? Makes perfect sense.
Well, maybe the whole point is to make Chinese volume less frenetic.
less volume, less influence.
their volume will probably go from 40% to 10-20% shortly
It is better for us in the west.
Thanks, China!
The PBOC claims its actions are intended to make Bitcoin price less volatile. Ironically every action it's recently taken has created a huge short term dump.
However, who's going to deposit Bitcoins to an exchange that's frozen withdrawals for the next month? If nobody deposits that's less Bitcoins China can dump to suppress the price.
Bullish.
Here is what have happened.
During first meeting, one month ago, Chinese bitcoin exchanges were forced by PBoC directly or indirectly to sell part of customer bitcoins to suppress price. Of course, they were assured that the bank will financially compensate them if price moves in the opposite direction. Surprise, surprise, but not really. Price moved in the opposite direction! PBoC took huge loss and worst of all the exchanges now don't have enough bitcoin liquidity to meet customer withdrawals. So, the only logical step forward is to block bitcoin withdrawals under pretext that it was ordered by the bank for AML issues. If bitcoin price stays above $800 Chinese bitcoin exchanges are toast. PBoC will never truly compensate them.
IMO it's risk management by Chinese traders. They can't withdraw BTC because of AML, and panic dump for CNY.
1204.
Post 17836334 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.03h):
12h MACD has crossed into negative on Chinese exchanges, but not on western ones.
1205.
Post 18294104 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
Just arrived this from Circle to my email:
Potential Bitcoin Changes
We wanted to provide you with some important information regarding potential changes to Bitcoin that could significantly impact bitcoin held in your Circle Account.
As described in our User Agreement, “Bitcoin is a decentralized currency that operates on open source software protocols which can be used, modified or adapted by anyone... As a result of the decentralized nature of Bitcoin it is possible that sudden, unexpected or controversial changes (“forks”) can be made to Bitcoin.”
Based on recent developments in the Bitcoin ecosystem, it now seems likely that one or more forks of Bitcoin may occur in the near future. Any fork of Bitcoin may have a significant impact on the value of bitcoin and your ability to access the bitcoin you hold with Circle.
What should I do?
The only way to avoid the potential negative consequences of a Bitcoin fork is to not hold bitcoin. Just go to Settings > Currency and convert your balance to dollars, pounds or euro (availability is based on where you live). You’ll then be able to hold those funds with Circle or cash out instantly.
Have more inside on this email but i only copied the 2 paragraphs, but can you understand the impact of this to the people ? This can be the reason of today's dump ?
Sooo...everybody is invited to dump their bitcoins... I better place my bids looow!
1206.
Post 18302474 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
...
Bitmain needed cash for their new data center they invested heavily last year. They sold customer bitcoins. Nothing unusual there. What is confusing is that PBoC came to rescue Chinese short sellers. If we break $1350 next stop will be >$10,000 bitcoin.
Permabull dreams... First 935$ should hold when support will be tested again. And if it will hold, later we may break the ATH, and reach about 2200$ in 3 - 5 months, followed by a 40% correction.
Edit. 935$ not 985$, my bad.
1207.
Post 18305943 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
...
If segwit has not activated by the end of one retarget period after 15 November 2017, segwit will cease to be eligible for activation.
So we have time until November to reach 2k$ or higher, then doom (because the fuckin' miners won't let Segwit happen)... good to know.
1208.
Post 18405250 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
Weird action on Bitfinex, they started the pump early (IMO) and then a 1k BTC dump into the pump, meh...
1209.
Post 18405941 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
I see a wall!
The 1k ask wall on Kraken at 1000 EUR has been eaten and pulled.
1210.
Post 18405967 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
I see a wall!
The 1k ask wall on Kraken has been eaten and pulled.
FOMO game is strong right now. Lets go to 1 000 000 USD already so tht i can finally retire.
Ahem... this is probably a wave B and a bull trap, so IMO take your profits when this runs out of steam, probably tomorrow.
1211.
Post 29738977 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.42h):
I am unsure about my cash flow rate in sMerit, so for now I am behaving like a cheapskate and only sending in 1 at a time, my apologies to all who deserved more.
Once I'll understand how the cash flow in sMerit behaves, I promise to send more to those who deserve it.
1212.
Post 30797657 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.45h):
1213.
Post 31114338 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.46h):
The pump started by crossing 1h MACD to positive and flipping 6h PSAR to bullish, but later also crossed 2h MACD and flipped 12h PSAR.
1214.
Post 31647079 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.46h):
A major dump could make PSAR flip to bearish in quick succession, for the 1h, 2h, 6h and 12h time frames.
1215.
Post 31667672 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.47h):
A major dump could make PSAR flip to bearish in quick succession, for the 1h, 2h, 6h and 12h time frames.
Dump flipped 1h, 2h and 6h PSAR to bearish, but not yet the 12h. Going to bed, will try to catch the bottom tomorrow morning.
1216.
Post 31790880 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.47h):
The trustnodes article is garbage.
And the February 2018 crash wasn't caused by the Trustee, AFAIK he panic sold 18 thousand BTC close to the February 6th bottom.
As a MtGox creditor, I wish the crash would have been caused by the Trustee, by selling high, but this was not the case.
1217.
Post 31795603 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.47h):
The MtGox bankruptcy settlement situation demonstrates one more time that The Law Is An Ass.
It is pretty well established in western law that such settlements be conducted on a cash basis. It seems the Japanese courts administering the MtGox deal will hew to this doctrine. As such, creditors will likely be 'made whole' [sic] by awarding them the Yen value of their MtGox accounts, calculated using the price of Bitcoin on the date of receivership.
Of course, BTC has appreciated exorbitantly since then. Given this, MtGox's residual BTC holdings are well in excess of its debts as calculated as per above. Indeed, the recent sale has generated enough fiat to 'make whole' [sic again] the creditors. After this, there remains ~$1.5 B USD worth of crypto in the MtGox coffers.
Again using the established legal protocols, this BTC will likely be considered the property not of MtGox creditors (i.e., after they have been 'made whole' [sic *3]), but of MtGox itself. While the picture is still cloudy, this may result in the rather perverse situation that Karpeles exits this process a very rich man.
The good news is that the required selling would seem to be over. The questionable news is the fate of the remaining funds (i.e. ~3x-4x more than sold so far) remains in limbo, and may be sold at any time, given case disposition. The Vonnegut-esqe news is that a single individual -- either corrupt, incompetent, or both, but clearly undeserving in any instance -- may end up a billionaire.
The Law Is An Ass.
If the Court will reject the Civil Rehabilitation, and continue with bankruptcy, you would be mostly correct. But the Court seems likely to accept CR, it's more a matter of timing.
Please read this:
https://wiki.mtgoxlegal.com/en/home/frequently-asked-questions/I am copy-pasting here the Fisherman analogy from the page linked above, I think it's funny:
A rare type of fish (pisces bitcoinii) is caught every year, by local fishermen (depositors). The fish must be stored in a climate-controlled warehouse so that it will continue to taste good. Fishermen rent space in a common warehouse (Mt. Gox) that also serves as a market, to store their catch of fish during the last season. Some fish-buyers and fishermen also store money (fiat) in the warehouse for short periods of time, but the warehouse is mainly used to store fish (bitcoins).
One year, the warehouse owner (Mark) took a long vacation to Macau (did something irresponsible), and left nobody guarding the warehouse. While he was gone, 75% of the fish and all of the money were taken by thieves. The remaining fish are mixed up so it’s unclear who they belong to (unsecured assets). When the warehouse owner notices this, he declares bankruptcy.
The fish are taken by the bankruptcy trustee, who prepares to sell them and distribute the money from the sale to the fishermen. He takes a very long time though, because a bookie is demanding the fish be sold to pay the warehouse owner’s gambling debts (Coinlab). The next year, the fish that are caught are mostly infected with worms. The price of last year’s fish catch skyrockets, and is 50 times higher than the previous year! One of the largest reserves of this fish is in the possession of the trustee. And meanwhile, the fishermen are in danger of losing their boats because they have no money, and some have taken out loans with high interest.
The bankruptcy trustee proposes to sell all the fish, pay the fishermen based on last year’s price, and then give the remaining money to the warehouse owner. This outrages the fishermen, who believe that they should be the ones to benefit, since it is their fish that are now in such high demand. It was the warehouse owner’s negligence that caused the theft, and he would be made very rich indeed if the trustee’s plan moves forward. Meanwhile, the bookie is still wasting the court’s time, claiming the fish need to be sold to pay off the warehouse owner’s gambling debts.
The fishermen aren’t sure if next year’s catch of fish will be infected with worms or not. If they are, the price will go up even more, but if not, the price will plummet, and the fishermen would all like to be able to sell at least some of their fish while the price for them is high.
1218.
Post 31796684 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.47h):
1219.
Post 31797381 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.47h):
This dump flipped the daily PSAR to bearish, and pushed price close to the daily lower BB.
12h and 24h MACD are still positive, the market should be able to recover soon.
1220.
Post 31811155 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.47h):
Anyone know the current address for the Mt Gox trustee and/or have any recommendations for address alert tools?
It is unwise to ask for the current home address of a person who might receive threats, the police could think you are a violent person.
If you meant the MtGox estate BTC addresses, then check this thread:
https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/82m0dl/mtgox_trustee_has_sold_some_btc_and_bch/
1221.
Post 31867651 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.47h):
...
Keep in mind that the media can make up whatever FUD bullshit they want and put it out there, and the public has no choice but to accept it at face value...
Unfortunately the media has picked up the ill-inspired statement of the Trustee: "I plan to consult with the court and determine further sale of BTC and BCC."
He has no reason to sell any BTC now, but the media could turn this into a self-fulfilling prophecy: some large BTC owners to panic sell because of the statement, making the Trustee to panic sell again.
1222.
Post 31913421 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.47h):
You need to understand. Every time it goes under $8700 I’m poor again which means I will be rich but when it goes over $8700 I’m rich again which means I will be poor. And I’ve been rich and poor five times today and trust me, rich is better except it means you are going to be poor which is worse so it’s better to be poor and worse to be rich.
I hope you didn't try to catch a falling knife (I know, it's not falling very hard, but still...) with a leveraged long?
1223.
Post 36868680 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.55h):
More Gox coins on the move, this time 8k BTC might get sold soon, besides the 16k BTC that moved 12 days ago.
https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/8ida8d/mor_coins_are_on_the_move_may_10th_2018/
1224.
Post 40592452 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.59h):
Roger Thomas Clark aka Variety Jones gets extradited into the USA. This could lead to more BTC seized by the feds and then auctioned.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/manhattan-us-attorney-announces-extradition-senior-adviser-operator-silk-road-website
1225.
Post 40653770 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.59h):
MtGox enters Civil Rehabilitation:
https://mtgox-creditors.com/
1226.
Post 43673573 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.03h):
Fuckin' ETH should go to zero alone, instead it brings other cryptos down too...
1227.
Post 43724632 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.04h):
well this sucks
I think I'll go hit my thumb repeatedly with a hammer for a while.
Yeah, it sucks... Still, I don't think you should, quoting "hit my thumb repeatedly with a hammer for a while", this won't help with the price action.
1228.
Post 46266911 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.08h):
Bitfinex price right now... 6666.6666$... some devil worshiper trader... please stop this!
1229.
Post 49531093 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.29h):
In the MtGox civil rehabilitation process, Coinlab has submitted a 16 billion dollars claim.
This could delay the distribution, unless the Court will quickly find it absurd and dismiss it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/am0s6r/confirmed_coinlab_has_submitted_a_16bn_claim/
1230.
Post 49643645 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.30h):
Litecoin pumps, Bitcoin may follow soon. But IMO it's not a good time to pump, just before the weekend, it could turn out to be a fakeout.
1231.
Post 50087536 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.35h):
Now I’m worried because I don’t know who Ian Balina is
I didn't know either, but searched and found out:
https://www.youtube.com/user/Diaryofamademan
1232.
Post 50160398 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.36h):
what's going on? first spike up, now spike down? I'm not used to this volatility anymore. please, someone make it stop
I was waiting for a decision, between bullish and bearish scenarios, since 6h PSAR was close to flip to bullish, and 12h PSAR close to flip to bearish.
With this bi-directional spike, both flipped, so no clue how this will unfold...
1233.
Post 50160780 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.36h):
I was waiting for a decision, between bullish and bearish scenarios, since 6h PSAR was close to flip to bullish, and 12h PSAR close to flip to bearish.
With this bi-directional spike, both flipped, so no clue how this will unfold...
Just don't follow the price action for a month or two. Take a break.
Poor advice: the bullish scenario targets 5200$, while the bearish one targets 2100$. Quite a difference, and any early clue regarding the winning scenario would be very valuable to me.
1234.
Post 50163795 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.36h):
I was waiting for a decision, between bullish and bearish scenarios, since 6h PSAR was close to flip to bullish, and 12h PSAR close to flip to bearish.
With this bi-directional spike, both flipped, so no clue how this will unfold...
Where do you think we are compared to 2015? Or do you see it unfolding differently than back then?
If this will play similar to 2015, then about 6 months from now weekly MACD should cross into positive.
But I suspect this bear market is of a higher order than the 2014 one, so I wouldn't count on a quick recovery.
1235.
Post 50164505 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.36h):
I was waiting for a decision, between bullish and bearish scenarios, since 6h PSAR was close to flip to bullish, and 12h PSAR close to flip to bearish.
With this bi-directional spike, both flipped, so no clue how this will unfold...
Where do you think we are compared to 2015? Or do you see it unfolding differently than back then?
If this will play similar to 2015, then about 6 months from now weekly MACD should cross into positive.
But I suspect this bear market is of a higher order than the 2014 one, so I wouldn't count on a quick recovery.
weekly macd is positive now?
do you mean it has to go red again first over these 6 months?
No, weekly MACD (the signal) is deeply into negative now, but MACD divergence has crossed into green 5 weeks ago.
And the weekly MACD signal also made a bearish divergence with the April 2018 MACD low (both lower price and lower MACD).
What I mean is that the weekly MACD signal should cross into positive, in order to make the case for a bull market, but I don't see this happening soon.
In the meantime, I hope the 5200$ scenario becomes true, I am still long (bought just before the Feb 8th pump).
1236.
Post 50185542 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.37h):
I was waiting for a decision, between bullish and bearish scenarios, since 6h PSAR was close to flip to bullish, and 12h PSAR close to flip to bearish.
With this bi-directional spike, both flipped, so no clue how this will unfold...
Where do you think we are compared to 2015? Or do you see it unfolding differently than back then?
If this will play similar to 2015, then about 6 months from now weekly MACD should cross into positive.
But I suspect this bear market is of a higher order than the 2014 one, so I wouldn't count on a quick recovery.
weekly macd is positive now?
do you mean it has to go red again first over these 6 months?
No, weekly MACD (the signal) is deeply into negative now, but MACD divergence has crossed into green 5 weeks ago.
And the weekly MACD signal also made a bearish divergence with the April 2018 MACD low (both lower price and lower MACD).
What I mean is that the weekly MACD signal should cross into positive, in order to make the case for a bull market, but I don't see this happening soon.
In the meantime, I hope the 5200$ scenario becomes true, I am still long (bought just before the Feb 8th pump).
Daily PSAR has flipped to bullish, so the 5200$ scenario has now good chances to become true.
1237.
Post 50243840 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.37h):
notice just came of MtGox claim approval
me too, quoting: As a result, all of the amounts of your filed claim(s) have been approved.
But I'm waiting for the Court to dismiss Coinlab's ridiculous claim. Then I'll celebrate.
1238.
Post 50243911 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.37h):
something missing bro
This assumes the weekly charts have the same meaning for the 2014 bear market and the current one.
But what if the current one is of a higher order? Then maybe we should be using monthly charts (or 2 week, or 3 week) instead.
Do you know of a BTC charting site which displays larger than weekly time periods?
1239.
Post 50244902 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.37h):
Thank you, I forgot to check tradingview. Here is a monthly chart for MACD, MFI and CCI:
1240.
Post 50248581 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.37h):
Thank you, I forgot to check tradingview. Here is a monthly chart for MACD, MFI and CCI:
But is that chart telling "us" anything meaningful about BTC's price future (besides the long-term UP that "we" already presume)?
That chart can't really tell "us" anything meaningful, but... just to me... (you might hate this
)
It suggests that we are in a correction of a larger order, like we already had a historical V, and right now it's historical (end-of-)A or historical B.
If we are in historical B, then later this year, the market could top at 10k$ - 12k$, followed by C (another ~3 years of bear market, down to ~1,500$).
1241.
Post 50249060 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.37h):
Thank you, I forgot to check tradingview. Here is a monthly chart for MACD, MFI and CCI:
But is that chart telling "us" anything meaningful about BTC's price future (besides the long-term UP that "we" already presume)?
That chart can't really tell "us" anything meaningful, but... just to me... (you might hate this
)
It suggests that we are in a correction of a larger order, like we already had a historical V, and right now it's historical (end-of-)A or historical B.
If we are in historical B, then later this year, the market could top at 10k$ - 12k$, followed by C (another ~3 years of bear market, down to ~1,500$).
hahahahaha... I don't exactly hate it, but I could call it "interesting" "mumbo jumbo"... so you gave the scenario for if "we" happen to be in an "historical B," which does not sound like a very good scenario, especially because such scenario results in prolonged prices lower than today's prices and also lower than the already December low of $3,122, but what if "we" happen to be in a "historical A" instead of an "historical B," then what should we expect (not that I should believe any of this chart woo woo
)?
By the way, does your "historical A" and "historical B" discussion points account for BTC's likely ongoing s-curve adoption? which likely results in exponential price rises through adoption? or do your "historical A" / "B" scenarios assume a certain level of BTC market maturity?
I did not write "historical A", but "historical (end-of-)A", meaning that I'm not sure if we have already completed the A, or we'll see a bit more down to complete A (all this assumes we are moving much slower than in 2014). In case we already completed A, we are now in B and should slowly climb towards the 4 of A, which is at ~12k$.
I don't care about S curve adoption, I see bitcoin similar to a multi-billion corporation with shitty R&D, so very bearish long term, if nothing changes for the good in R&D.
1242.
Post 50262272 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.38h):
Everyone is talking about the 140k BTC potential sell-side pressure from the Mt Gox coin redistribution to creditors Absolutely no-one is talking about the $627million being distributed to creditors who may then decide to *buy more* Bitcoin
https://twitter.com/alistairmilne/status/1108769707463770112You are missing an important point: there will be no distribution, until the Coinlab lawsuit will be sorted out, at least in the first Court.
The reason is that the Coinlab claim, of about 16 billion $, is so (ridiculously) large that it's impossible to fairly attribute voting rights.
Until then, Kobayashi may decide (he did not promise to withhold from selling) to sell more BTC and BCH, if the Court will approve.
1243.
Post 50271265 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.38h):
You are missing an important point: there will be no distribution, until the Coinlab lawsuit will be sorted out, at least in the first Court.
The reason is that the Coinlab claim, of about 16 billion $, is so (ridiculously) large that it's impossible to fairly attribute voting rights.
Until then, Kobayashi may decide (he did not promise to withhold from selling) to sell more BTC and BCH, if the Court will approve.
Since last time sold almost at top we should not expect any selling in next 2 years since they obviously know what they are doing.
You know? Kobayashi san has proven to be a pretty sharp motherfucker in retrospect.
Um, no... Kobayashi would like to sell all soon, but there was strong objection from the creditors present at the meeting.
Anyway, since the forks other than BCH won't be distributed, they will be 100% sold, probably by auctioning the keys.
1244.
Post 50272650 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.38h):
You are missing an important point: there will be no distribution, until the Coinlab lawsuit will be sorted out, at least in the first Court.
The reason is that the Coinlab claim, of about 16 billion $, is so (ridiculously) large that it's impossible to fairly attribute voting rights.
Until then, Kobayashi may decide (he did not promise to withhold from selling) to sell more BTC and BCH, if the Court will approve.
Since last time sold almost at top we should not expect any selling in next 2 years since they obviously know what they are doing.
You know? Kobayashi san has proven to be a pretty sharp motherfucker in retrospect.
Um, no... Kobayashi would like to sell all soon, but there was strong objection from the creditors present at the meeting.
Anyway, since the forks other than BCH won't be distributed, they will be 100% sold, probably by auctioning the keys.
BCH includes both Bcash ABC and Bcash SV? Both of those will continue to be held by the trustee, for now?
The last report (20th March 2019) says nothing about the 2 rival forks of BCH. But my understanding is that Kobayashi is afraid to be the custodian
of so much crypto for much longer (he may have been a target for hackers), so he personally wants to dump all crypto, if the Court will allow this.
1245.
Post 50345309 (copy this link) (by Tzupy) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.38h):
...
well...I made my 'mental bet' in a previous post...I think the price (hope I'm dead wrong) that due to mt. gox dumping 1.25 billion or so USD worth of bitcoin...supposedly May 2019.
Maybe that is where you are going wrong? Distributing is not the same as "dumping." You should know that.
...
There are issues with both of your statements. MtGox has only 141,686 BTC left, so nowhere near 1.25 billion $ at current prices.
Distribution has no chance to happen in May 2019, because of the Coinlab claim, of about 16 billion $ (previously 75 million $).
MtGox Trustee Kobayashi may have to sell (dump) a lot of BTC, if the Court will decide in Coinlab's favor (claim was rejected by Kobayashi), but this is unlikely.
