It's easy. If you want to buy a million dollars worth of coins, you're probably pretty smart and know what you're doing. And if you know what you're doing, then you don't try to buy them by putting one order in the order book at one price thats been beaten through several times in the last 24 hours.

The important part is post-bubble. There's no reason to think that it will behave the same as in 2011.

There is no bad news this time to crush confidence. Actually, good news is still coming in just as it did on the way up. New merchants accepting every day. New exchanges and projects being worked on. Plenty of media coverage and people coming in.

The current 100 wall is not even looking that impressive compared to the 80 wall.

The $120 bear trying to fight off the wave is going to be roadkill soon i feel

I don't know whether to be happy about this rise. It is beginning to feel like early April, and we all know how that ended! (assuming that it has really ended, lol).

What the heck is going on. This is unreal!!! At this rate we will be 200+ in a few days.

Why are you verifying ? To make a withdrawal or pay money in ?

I have a feeling most of these verifications are for withdrawals.

Consolidation time? Or another rally soon? I think people are still cautious so I vote for consolidation and building support for a little while before starting another rally.

Thousands of bitcoiners are going to retire soon!

lmao at the botwars

I have buy orders all the way down from $70 to $30. But I think that anything below $50 is highly unlikely. We already had HUGE selloffs after the crash, there's no so many coins to dump left.

I sold with tiny profits. I still can buy, but I don't see it going over 165$.. Tomorrow interesting day for sure.

laymans analysis:



trend continuation: UP. soon.

EDIT: soon = max 2 hours

Worth listening to:
http://youtu.be/59uTUpO8Dzw?t=19m14s

(starts at 19m14s)

damnit, I got to put my stops lower

Currently we are below SMA 200

Looks like we managed to get back up again, despite a nasty fall  

Stop buying you fools let them have 120

here we go! 

sounds a lot like btc-e chat room

So sub-100 not on the cards anymore...

It's anarchy in here 

Btw, this is the last day when we see $95 EVER, you can quote me on that.  

THAT 1000BTC wall was just eaten.

Second rule of Bitcoin: never go to sleep.

I don't mind losing money, that's the game, you win or lose, but I fucking hate missing chances to make it.

everyone is panic holding!

C'mon! Down.. you can do it!

92.5
Me starts wondering if in the next months we'll ever see the low 20's, like double of when the bubble started.

Wall broken. I'm fucked up.

convert all BTC to LTC during the transition

The market is overreacting. It would take days till we see any impact in the market (even if we would).

It is clear that the Chinese government (who does in fact censor, this I can confirm with first hand experience) has given Bitcoin the go-ahead.

Kinda, yeah, though I think there's more emotions drivel trading at bitcoin market than others, most of other markets are professionals only, most of us here are pure amateurs...

montreal meetup was fucking AWESOME! not too many people, but tons of fun!

bearish wedge coming to a close right now. midnight dump?

My system is to buy back with 1% clear profit on every deal.  Even if more can be had, at this stage I am only interested in establishing trading rules so I can safely trade 2000 at a time.

so I am now able to predict trends slightly better now

Well, seems the triangle is complete. Up we go?

Edit: I can drawz too!

lol how did that feel?  

haha, dick

We are moving forward at a pace that is not linear, maybe not exponential, but quadratic or somewhere like that.

Looks like a few brave bulls are buying into the dump! I would join them if I had anything left to give :*(

Everyone run for the hills, it's going to $40 this time

Right

That could have gone way more badly

I think bulls we can now safely start slaughtering bears again.

Interesting choice... dumping just before the end of the longest bank holiday of the year.

But do the Chinese realize?

Unfortunately the majority of the people in Bitcoin don't care about Bitcoin. They just want to make quick money. Preferably by sitting on the ass, holding coins and wait for others to make developments so they can become more valuable.

This is crazy. A mere whisper of a we are thinking about, possibly, maybe, considering regulating bitcoins sends a massive train wreck down to 106.

The speed with which those walls were eaten! I was thinking, 7k from 112 to 110, no way they getting below that. Well, it took 5 minutes.

Thankfully china came to the rescue though (lol). I thought 106 was going to fall without fight too, but it stood.  

Now it seems there are no more sellers left. Back to upwards marching we go I think.

I wish!

"Donk. Donk donk. Donk.... Dink!"

We choose the Moon, not because it's easy, but because it is hard.

I'm in such a big shit situation, lol

This whole price drive-down was probably done so that as bank transfers come in from that long Japanese bank holiday they can get cheap coins. I think we're going right back up.

no clearly it will go up once the market is done catching all these cheap bitcoins the seller is anxiously getting rid of ( who's the sucker selling anyway? )

Does the New York Times know something I don't?

Tell me about it.  I sold at 98.99 with a buy order at 97.89.  Looks like I will be taking a loss on that position.

FUD or serious shit?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/05/07/now-this-really-could-make-a-dent-in-bitcoin/

Looks like a bearish pennant.

Buyers are still there, and true bears seem to be running quite low on ammo

When you look at the chart going back a few months, it is pretty clear that that symmetrical like triangle is a part of the uptrend and NOT recent downtrend. Also, since it is symmetrical, that would be a good omen coming out of a big upmove. But I agree with you, I don't know.  

my wife just bought into a pyramid scheme shes going to make $$$

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

anyone need cleaning products?

Buyer beware.

Thank you! And can you tell us, as others including myself have asked, where did you get that Logarithmic chart? Was it built custom from Gox data?


IAS

Hold 110. For the love of god please please hold.

If we bounce of 110 where do you think we will fall to? 97 was the low earlier.

It's "DAN DAN DAAAAAANN!"

 

Looks like someone pressed the "Oh he's just bought in, let's drop the price by 4%" button again.
Seriously, it happens every time.

Never! XD
I'm keeping them forever and ever!
Or until they gain a profit, anyway.

not really, I still have the same financial value when they return to the price I bought at. AFTER that, I will sell them.

Well, I aim for 3% increase in BTC volume per day, so since I have just bought the BTC at $112.5, it's not worth cutting my losses at $110, as it will take longer to recover them.
Anyway, the downward trend seems to have lost momentum, and is turning back upwards.

I'm trying to make my initial buy-in of 6.2 bitcoins* into enough to quit work - I'm at 16.7 now, after 2.5 weeks, so eventually I will manage it - if only I can purchase and sell at the right time for once.

I'd rather take my time, and tread carefully. I have slipped back too many times this week (I had 22.5 BTC at one point, then held cash due to a badly timed sell, as it shot up on the 3rd while I was asleep. I tried to recover by buying in late, just as it peaked again - I lost about $500 that day)

The thing is, I have very limited resources, and I really don't think it will drop much below $110 again any time soon, so I'd rather not risk it.


* I bought those (literally) 15 minutes before it plunged from $250....

It's closing on the 11th. isn't it?

Based on the charts that are posted we go through that point every 4 hours. We'll be fine.  

I have updated my recent analysis (I can see why you guys have so much fun with this line drawing business)

And we are certain that the majority of those coins were not purchased by the bots who removed their walls crashing the market in the first place?

Elaborate, please.

The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time.

Has everyone gone?  Is it just me and ChartBuddy here now? 

Disregard emotions, acquire BTCs.

Dumping 50 at 108
120 at 107.80

and 150 at 107.5

to keep the motion down

Agreed. But because price variance observes a Cauchy distribution, rather than a Gaussian one, so the "mean" is meaningless (pardon the pun) and can only be determined retrospectively from the oscillations.


The mechanism is the butterfly effect in Chaos theory (which I confess I don't have more than an overview of). It is the butterfly effect. I think we saw this at $97 when someone bought 5,000 coins and a run to $166 resulted.

What else are you doing while watching BTC live, this forum... any other activities?

Can I get my parade now? 

We are officially over sold and people are scared to NOT have coins.

If I may, I would like to add some of my own analysis.

Many "bears" here believe the support line will break under the resistance line, pointing to the 2011
bubble and the long and excruciating crash that followed. (Both lines should collide in the next 2 days, at around $115.)
They might be right. Both charts kinda look similar.

Let's look again:



Here we see the peak, with the inevitable collapse, the rebound, the second crash... and so on.
I think we all know this chart by heart now.


Oh wait...
Wrong chart.

This is our chart:




What the hell did I just show then?

The gold "bubble" chart.

Here is how it deflated:






Now, obviously the timescales are different. But take a closer look.
Observe how the "popping" is similar. And by similar I mean frikking identical.



Everything is in log scale, so what we see really are relative changes.


Contrary to gold however, our support is ascending.
Notice how both support points occurred at almost the same places.




The full gold chart:



Disclaimer: contrary to 2011, I'm ready to drop a good chunk of my coins at a moment's notice.
I will not simply hold all of them and miss a golden opportunity like the one that arose when BTC reached $4.

Times scales are so different... Tweaking the time scales in that way you can find similarities in every chart in the world.

Wow. The old thread took almost 1yr to reach 1200 pages. This thread is only 23 days old and already up to 340 pages. (...)

Im going short here fully leveraged. This reminds me of the recent 140 high with no volume. Looking for 105ish to make me a nice 25% gain.

If the guys making the charts could actually predict the market movements, they'd be rich and they wouldn't be on here making charts trying to convince people.

We'll just draw new ones. On log charts, of course.

You buying BTC in 2011 had nothing to do with TA or charts. Give yourself the credit for that, you saw the potential (I've read your posts).

what the...



magicaltux payed $2048. dunno what to say...

Well according to our fellow triangle of doom, the price is actually supposed to stabilize now.

Should stay within $100-$115 and tommorow within $100-$110.

People seem to be forgetting that you could buy thousands of Bitcoin for $15 each only four months ago.

Are they really worth $113 or more right now ?

Nobody seems to think so or they would not be sitting on the orderbook remaining unsold for days.

I feel bullish.

+1

I'm guessing a continued downtrend, or irrational rally leading to an even bigger crash. Maybe.

Won't be any news topping those two stories.

Problem is I don't really think bitcoins are worth as much as they are now. Even counting hype I'd say 75, and that's very generous considering many of the hyper bears out there.

To imagine how different this is from a classic asset bubble, it would be as if not only the price of bubble-era houses were rising, but also that their actual sought-after qualities as houses were improving spontaneously at the same time. Such houses might sprout new rooms with no one building them, with new paint jobs appearing mysteriously overnight without any painters having visited.

I'm amazed at the number of bitcoiners who believe a stable price with volume this low is a good thing in an almost purely speculative market.

i love asia

There is something very sad about that story.

Was just on cam with Bitsinmyhead, was a little awkward.

Someone didn't hop on the rally train.

No short-term profit taking after a $5 hike is a good sign too. Yet.

It's funny how a $3 move can be exciting these days.

Yeah, but hindsight is also 20/20. I'm pretty sure (haven't done the hard maths, and probably won't cause it's the weekend) that if you start from the premise that you'll trade successfully only 50% of the time, buy and hold is a much better approach in the long run than trying to play the market swings.

As may be seen in the following table, replacing the table from Chapter 5,
the Dow Theory continued to provide its user an advantage over the
unaware Buy-and-Hold Investor. From its original investment of $100 in
1897 the Theory investment would have grown to $345,781.94 by December
31, 2005, with the long trade still open. The table below shows the details,
including the post-2000 bust drawdown. To my mind this table is a powerful
demonstration of the power of methodical technical investing.
By contrast, the investment of $100, if bought at the low, 29.64, and sold at
the historic high, 11762.71, in January 2000 would have grown to $39,685.03.

t/a wise things are getting worse by the hour IMO

If I was short, I would be looking to take profits soonish. Lack of sell side depth would scare the shit out of me, this could be just a couple people dumping which would explain why there is no market power behind sell off.. bids aren't being cancelled, asks aren't being added to... What 3k btcs to move price back up $7? Don't see risk/reward payoff there

I dont know what you mean by the 30 btc comment.

When I'll be cashing out then first step will PUMP the price.

No volume to confirm, could be a false break. But maybe cheap coins in near future.

Maybe we're not going to see a major upward breakout over the weekend, but I don't see any real chance for a downward breakout approaching 100 at the moment. Not with an order book filled to the brim, money flow continuing to be positive and 3 different oscillators saying we're oversold.

Which means: No interest rates and not quickly withdrawable. I can't really imagine why big investors would do that, but maybe that's just me.

LOL thanks for the reminder, fiat holder isn't it ?

Wall pic!

Why do people even bother drawing these lines anymore?

Another point to remember — and one which does not conform at all
to the “coil” simile — is that the farther out into the apex of the Triangle
prices push without bursting its boundaries, the less force or power the
pattern seems to have. Instead of building up more pressure, it begins to
lose its efficacy after a certain stage. The best moves (up or down) seem to
ensue when prices break out decisively at a point somewhere between half
and three quarters of the horizontal distance from the base (left-hand end)
to the apex. If prices continue to move “sideways” in narrower and narrower
fluctuations from day to day after the three quarter mark is passed, they are
quite apt to keep right on to the apex and beyond in a dull drift or ripple
which leaves the chart analyst completely at sea. The best thing to do in such
cases is go away and look for something more promising elsewhere in your
chart book.

Low volume may pick up as we have come to expect late Sunday.

i predict 130 this week

And what happens if we do tank?

^ this. It's been more than long enough now. Cheap coins are pointless if you keep cheapening them.

Bitcoin price rose from $114 to $118 with the arrival of modestly higher volume on Sunday evening. The rally is approaching resistance at $118-119 which has withstood several attempts in the past 12 hours.

still new verified customers on Gox coming in...


https://www.facebook.com/MtGox/posts/468728366544909

It's bullish and bearish all at the same time!

The bears lost this war, you'll never see a $100 price again! This is the beginning of the momentum, people are already realizing that now is the the time to buy or miss their chance.

MtGox is the only exchange that at least halfway got its shit together to not lose any funds and not get shut down. There has been no better alternative, and most certainly not for anyone trading more than pocket change. MtGox's success made Bitcoin's possible, deal with it.

Read this and learn: http://fc13.ifca.ai/proc/1-2.pdf

The reason the FREE MARKET is still predominantly using MtGox is that MtGox is the least shit of them all.

Looks to be stabilizing.

LMAO... this is a proudhon wannabe! :

The MtGox queue is also over now, the said they are caught up.

It could very well be a legitimate government action.

lol

its time to buy 

True, but you are overloading the forum with bearish talk Sold all your coins it seems

(just wait a little, still offloading mine  )

I'm buying and selling every 1.1%.

Yup, that's what I was thinking...

4700 outstanding. Very high number indeed.

http://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

I'm genuinely really sad about this

all the good news recently... fucking homeland security. I don't give a shit about homeland security...

I bought.

In retrospect, I hope buying wasn't the mistake.

yes

And waiting to buy some at $100ish, and to buy big time sub $100

Sorry I fucked up the satanic ritual earlier today.

Silly me, everyone knows you need to add a few extra pints of animal blood

A lot of people haven't had time to react to this news/non news story yet.

Gotta love the irrational buying and irrational selling going on.

 

This price could easily collapse again, last time there was massive support for the $119 price which got crushed, this time there's very little in the way of bids holding this price up.  It wouldn't take a huge amount of sales to knock it all the way back down again.

Gox www lagging hard/API unresponsive/broken for anyone else?

MtGox is having some issues right now...

this could be it

What a piece of shit Mt Gox is. I really hope this guy goes to jail. In my life i have seen such an imcompetence. How many millions have been lost due to this guy inability to run this company.

He got the best Magic the Gathering cards, he just found one day that he was running a billion dollar company (or exchange to a billion dollar market). So instead of playing with mages and trolls cards he just started to play businessman being absolutely horrible at it and making thousands of savers lose their hard earned money.

I seriously wonder how this is going to end up.

For once I think there is a good chance for the price to downtrend some more, that being said...

The rally from $103 continues to bump along resistance, e.g. plentiful supply at $116.

Sure, but we'll see it hit 108 first.

About.
Fucking.
Time.

If it were not for the bitcoin conference this weekend, I would expect some sort of consolidation after the breakouts at $116 and the big one at $120.

Bitcoin: Came for the decentralized currency, stayed for the insane, unsustainable explosions

I think he should fill them in to smooth surfaces and post a short video of how they evolve in time for the last 6,12 or 24 hours instead of all the instantaneous snapshots ... and rotate the perspective back slightly ... or have like a tunnel view down the center of the walls and play it as a movie as you fly through it (forward in time)

Its Sunday, not much to speculate.

So that's all that's needed to manipulate the market in most cases. .

Let's see if the market will go along with it. .

Market is showing support at 120, which is a good sign if bullish.

King Solomon had 2000 wives and concubines.

Google trends shows the real interest in Bitcoin.

It was mentioned every few days in the run up to $266 but it's not mentioned so much lately.

Here's why :

People bought btcs because of anticipation of a "big announcement" in the conference which finally turn out to be a lackluster one.

That's because the recent price rises are purely speculative and will run out of steam.

I believe it's calm because everyone is playing wait and see... once people realise there is nothing really to see, and that the infrastructure is really truely being built now... the only way is up.

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

That's the only reason I'm not (nor will I ever be) all in.

Besides that, just be patient. It's one of the best qualities there is. Just ask Rick Guerin. (http://basehitinvesting.com/mohnish-pabrai-on-patience-advice-from-buffett-and-what-ever-happened-to-bill-guerin/ )

(...) gox volume for Saturday was 22k, Sunday 20k, both extremely low. However, weekend can be low. If Monday volume not nearer 60k then grab the worry beads.

Are the bots keeping it stable?

Today's volume (or lack thereof) surprising or concerning to any of you?

Do you not remember the price climbing coincidentally after that?

This makes no sense. Why not use Kilo then, since that is the standard unit?

I stand corrected.    Appologies for making such a conclusive statement without checking my facts. I thought it was another silly American who didnt understand the prefixes. I actually should have known this even without looking it up.

Btw: Does anyone know did SI chose this?

 

now if i could only order a BTC pizza  in canada...

Back on topic. The daily chart looks to have a bullish triangle with higher lows. Breakout coming, anyone?

(...)gox volume for Saturday was 22k, Sunday 20k, both extremely low. However, weekend can be low. If Monday volume not nearer 60k then grab the worry beads.

That site has only been going a few days, and we need those stats going back a couple of weeks.
Obviously any one day could have more people hitting bids than asks while the market is fairly static.

I believe they call this stage 'denial'

It obviously broke a very strong support a while before it started to crash

Fair warning, but there wasn't so much good news back then, and that stability had a slight downward trend, while this one is slightly upward.

Clearly someone did, or they wouldn't have sold.

So what's your prediction?

Would this trendline look the same if it weren't for the exponential scale?

Oh right, unless you run an existing exchange, you can't possibility comment on how MtGox is run. Maybe those 7 people on the planet can chime in.

Are you 6 years old (and/or retarded)?

Who said it was simple? MtGox isn't #1 because of the quality of their site/engine. It's liquidity. It's a chicken/egg argument. There are plenty of market leaders who are poorly run. They remain market leaders for a number of reasons. You have this naive business paradigm that the biggest site is clearly the best, clearly well run, otherwise they wouldn't be number #1! Sadly in the real world, where real people live, that's not always true.

Why was Internet Explorer the #1 browser for so long? Because they were better? Being bigger, being the market leader is a huge competitive advantage.