Holding my bitcoin, because we are about to bust through $140 (to $152).

That might be a popular opinion on this forum, but it's certainly not mainstream otherwise.

You forgot increased speculation (buy and holders), unless you consider those folks in category one.  This increases as knowledge of bitcoin increases and more (new) long term bulls invest their fiat.

I suspect we'll not pass $150, pending very big news, until Mt Gox resolves withdrawals or they fall.  Too much anxiety in the market.

That's beautiful...

From watching the wall movement, it looks like we may well be heading north.

A little late night rally...

Wall at $135 re-positioning on the other side of the border.

Yes, I think people just ignore it at this point (as if it's already factored into the price).

Cup and handle formed? Supposedly some "big news" coming out public tomorrow, though I have my doubts on who it is "big" to.

I don't think I've ever seen an upcoming "big news" announcement live up to expectation, but there is always that distant hope...

 

The big news will be that, in fact, there is no big news.

this?

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1n532i/bitcoin_investment_trust_by_secondmarket/

Do you know how the legality works around this?  Serious question.

I thought from quick glance they were "off the grid", so to speak.

Also: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1n1tie/something_big_coming_to_secondmarket_for_bitcoin/ccenwqy

SecondMarket looks pretty reputable.  They wouldn't have consulted lawyers and spoke with the SEC before even starting something like this?  I'm just thinking out loud...

Mt Gox is pretty erratic, trend-less and driven by bots, while BitStamp continues to climb (gap is now like 8%).  Is BitStamp finally just ignoring Gox?

EDIT: Gap is 6.84% ... ?

Seems like an excellent time to pick up BTC and move off Gox, unless I'm really missing something...  If this one bot, though, is able to move funds off Gox for, say, 5% fee, then it makes sense for that one individual to continue to arbitrage.  That doesn't mean it makes sense for everyone else (unless they all have the same "deal").

Either way, nice to see some action again for a change.

Someones trying very hard to suppress the price atm..   both gox and stamp, largely stamp.

Doing it on BitStamp again.  Putting up a big Ask wall at $0.01 over whatever the highest bid is.  Occasionally dropping it... putting it back up.  Hasn't been working..

But it keeps the apparent spread between Mt Gox and BitStamp pretty high (in the hopes that it encourages dumpers on Gox perhaps).

If $140 falls...

How much "money" do you think is in that bot's Mt Gox account?

Wall forming @ $138

looks like one guy just bought 600 at $140, but didn't push through.. lol

maybe you gotta rock it back and forth a bit before it tumbles.

Funny how at $145 a few weeks ago we were "heading to $180" quick.  Now, after already falling 10%, we are "going down down down!" 

Must be a lot of fools scooping up $5-10k worth of bitcoin every 30 minutes right now..

Actually you can, on the belief that Mt Gox withdrawals will continue at some point in the relatively near future (say, few months out).  You wouldn't even attempt to withdraw now, but rather wait with your cash till Mt Gox finalizes a deal with a partner and withdrawals "continue".  

O.M.G.

6k bitcoin scoop up on Gox in about 90 seconds.

lot of buyers looking to pick up now at 144/145 (or maybe just same guy)

BitStamp would be a cheap way to attempt to pull the price on Gox back down, if you think about it.  Someone's been setting up strategic sells for days.

Just sayin'

Aside from a few people (or one person) puting up ask walls, BitStamp is straight up dead.

I see no panic at Gox.  It has 4x the 24hr volume now, and buyers have "eaten" through ~ 6000 bitcoins at a $145 ask price in the last 24hrs alone.  There's been a lot of resistance more recently on the way up ($145/$146 levels, for example), but the buyers have continued to push through.

No one seems to be looking to sell at $142/$143 levels anymore, regardless of whether there's much on the order book.  You get a lot of slippage selling into the order book now... would be much better off just putting up a wall at $146 or something.

The fact that ~ 6000+ bitcoins have already been listed at an ask price of $145, and fulfilled, should say something.  There is resistance, but people are still placing market buys.  There is no selling pressure, probably partially because there'd be a lot of slippage currently to the downside and no one seems to want to pick up at $142/$143 now when they'd be better off putting up an ask wall at $146...

Also, Mt Gox issues have been known by bitcoin day traders, etc., for months now.  If anything has been "priced in" for a while, it's that.  It seems much less likely, as one user posted, that this is some 4-month delayed panic buying that, coincidentally, just happens to be perfectly timed with big news.  People have been talking about "panic buying" on Mt Gox for half of 2013 now.

Just my thoughts though...

Assuming the person(s) placing that ask wall don't:

(1) Have special relationship that allows them to withdraw for some additional fee.
(2) Have insider information of an upcoming partnership announcement that resolves all withdrawal issues.

They may still just be betting that the price will fall.  They can then re-purchase those bitcoins on Mt Gox at a lower price.

Thus far, that hasn't been working out well for them.

Time for another mini correction.

hmm...



 

This has been happening for a few days.  Gox has appeared to just be ignoring (and inevitably someone eats down the wall).

Yes.. someone really trying to drive the price down.  Especially right now lol

Ya, it'd be great.  Except who's sending them single digit bitcoins?  Sure as hell not me.

It just may be..





































































..  time for a bag of tea.

Been like that for months now.

Maybe you need a little tea...

Gox and BitStamp are like polar opposites.  When one has buying pressure, the other has selling pressure... vise versa.

LOL


.. Of course, volume is way too low to probably have any meaning.

Hmm, interesting buying pressure building up on BitStamp.  Change from the last few days..

Gox is just dead.

I saw someone doing the normal 1 bitcoin selling on Gox, but not 1 bitcoin buying on Stamp (or maybe I missed).

All the Gox naysayers get real quite when price slips on Gox and people are actually market selling.

"Bu... bu.... but, I thought everyone was only buying to withdraw bitcoins"

It's also where you still trader if you're a trader.  The variance is higher than probably any other exchange.  BitStamp doesn't have that volume either, at least not yet.  A trader on Gox just assumes they'll fix their withdrawal issues soon enough and, in the meanwhile, he'll continue buying and selling.

Is the great panic sale of our time over?

Welcome back guys...
Finally

Also, there is no thymos.  It's Thermos (from now on).

This is not currently my plan, but we'll see if that changes.

At the same time, it blew up news on bitcoin, which is now trading slightly higher on BitStamp than immediately before the SR crash.

So who the hell really knows...

For people who were nervous that Silk Road was Bitcoin, they may now invest with confidence after seeing a full recovery.  In the public's mind, Bitcoin is now out of the realm of potentially being a purely black market currency.  We knew better, but they didn't.

I think it'd be wrong to say that recent events haven't fundamentally changed the public's opinion on Bitcoin's long term legitimacy outside of the black market sphere.  High or low volume.  Something like this can be a catalyst, today, a week from now, or...

I hope so.. I'm long.  

The recent bullishness may be heavily correlated to this US gov't shutdown.  I suspect it is, and will continue as long as that anxiety continues.  The more fighting and bickering on capital hill, the more BTC is likely to appreciate in the interim.  People pissed off at politics like the apolitical nature of Bitcoin.

Time will tel, of course.  Put your money where your mouth is.   

It's been publicly stated (somewhere) that "The Bitcoin Trust" will need to purchase bitcoin beginning with the very first investor.  That initial $2.5 million does not cover the first $2.5 million in investment from outsiders, but was just to "get the fund started".  

With that having been said, yes... at some point the Trust will need to purchase bitcoin when investor money comes in.  It isn't a question of "if" but rather "how much" and perhaps "when" (I assume whenever they invest).  I think Barry stated he's made relationships with exchanges and miners, so he may buy at least some of that directly from miners.  In that case, it would be indirectly observed on the exchanges.

Perhaps more impressive, Stamp is at like a 5 month high.  I would take actual buying pressure on Stamp as more indicative than on Gox, as Stamp has been more historically viewed as a "seller's exchange" (suppressed by Gox).

Of course, we'll see where the storm settles..

Closing price (assuming we closed where we are)?  I'm just looking at Stamp's graph...
https://www.bitstamp.net/

Meaningless maybe now.  We'll see where we settle.

lol, I see ya there...

It's just a market depth chart, with a "z" axis for time I believe.  So it's showing you market depth charts for the last hour.

If you really want to "rail", watch something like this:
bitcoin.clarkmoody.com

Highly unlikely with support on stamp and btcchina.  This isn't the typical run up where gox is the only player moving.

We're shocked...

Are we at the point where Gox "follows" Stamp (or at least seems to respect it)?

I feel like if Gox snaps too high over Stamp, and Stamp doesn't follow (pretty typical) someone dumps Gox back down.  By "too high" I mean maybe >11/12% (over Stamp) and Stamp doesn't follow.  Any truth to that?

We seem to be ~ one month from Stamp 30 day volume matching or even overtaking Gox.

We'll see what happens with that quarter million dollar wall on Stamp probably first.

EDIT: It's getting some nibbles..

That's pretty interesting.  $250,000 ask wall bought into on Stamp in like 30 minutes time (at least from when I noticed it)..

He has both bases covered lol.

This might actually need consideration sooner than most people think.  Stamp feels like it's finally taking the lead this week and Gox volume is low.

^ this would seem completely accurate if you lived in a deep well, and the only information you ever had available to you was the price history.

 

We're all shocked.  There was < 0.002% chance of an actual default.

Volume will keep dropping, relative to other exchanges, and it'll have less and less influence on the market.  It will stay x% over Stamp.

I'm not sure how you can conclude that.  All we can conclude is that many people have gone long on bitcoin recently.  It's not like there was $1,000,000's available on loan on Bitfinex.  The USD available will dry up very quickly, from just a few people.  They're not that big a site.

The answer, sir, is always buy.

Just not on Gox.

 

Doesn't look like a bubble to me:

Media Attention > New Users/Speculators > Price Goes Up

It's not complicated.

Also, "lol" if you think Baidu news is about them making a killing off people paying with bitcoin from the get-go.  It's about acceptance of the technology, and, again, more media attention/worldwide coverage..

Yes, bold is a GREAT thing.

I think we have the perfect storm for a bull-ish couple of months.

Good luck w/ your shorts..   

Woke up to check BitStamp quick on my phone..  6:50am on a Saturday..



wtffffffffffffffffffffffff  !!!!

 

It could be the very early stages of the start of a bubble, or it could end up not being.  I think the fact that everyone is constantly thinking about a bubble leads to more corrections and stability, in fact.  Bitcoin-ers are very aware of bubbles. 

Either way, and pending some big legislation changes soon, low $100s is gone for good imo.

What's up with Btc-e?  

China is on the move..

hilarious panic dumpers every two days there's a correction.  

into stronger hands..  

They wait till after there's an 8% drop, and then dump..

and?

elseif

You know, it's not difficult to buy something with bitcoin and immediately replenish your stash by converting an equivalent amount from fiat to bitcoin.  If you're worried about spending your bitcoins.

btcchina has officially passed Gox.  At least, for the moment.

11% difference w stamp lol... zero arbitrage?

lmao

Funny how:

(1) When Gox isn't buying (such as when btcchina passed Gox by a bit), no one says anything...
(2) When Gox is moving up, it's "everyone rushing to get their fiat off Gox!#$"

Anyway.. interesting Gox rally now.

That's only like 11% diff, which is pretty typical (maybe a little on the higher side).  The dollar spread will obviously increase to maintain the % difference as the price goes up. 

Looks like when Stamp is rallying it gets as low as maybe ~7%.  When Gox is rallying goes as high as ~12%. 

lmao

Maybe we're going back up... just started moving btc to bitfinex in case things got out of control again and panic ensued

It would have to be a most respected member of the community escrowing..

Let me find my btc address, brb..

Completely unrelated note... anyone watching world series??  Trying to find it online, to no avail.  I would even pay for it... but looks like it's blacked out the whole USA.  Don't have TV... don't watch TV.

Ahhh, found a stream.  Sent you a PM.    

Investigation complete.

Been sick, so I'm staying in.  Found a stream finally! 

I will probably go to Hooters for lunch tomm though (about a block from my work).

DPRs stash gotten to?

You'd save yourself a lot of $$$ by just putting up a buy wall at this point.

Panic on Bitcoin-street.  Some good money to be made if you can get in on the bottom..

Bitstamp going to pass Gox, LOL!

It's pretty depressing how slow innovation has been in this regard.  5 years later and user friendliness is still a lonnnnnng way off.  No one has built even, say, an iphone app that lets you send bitcoin to friends with the "scary stuff" running in the background (interfacing w/ public keys, etc.).  Normal people don't give a shit about interfacing with public/private keys.  They want to click on a picture of their friend and send them bitcoins.  This blows people minds in computer science that everyone isn't "technical minded".

In fact, the closest thing so far to being user friendly and "non scary" is probably Coinbase.  Anything else I'd be afraid of recommending to a non-nerd.  Seriously... would you send your grandma to blockchain.info??  lol

Weak hand capitulation continues.  A nice handle forms...   

When others panic and sell at the bottom is when it's time to go long.  Already scooped up 2 more BTC from profit during this panic.    

Finger on the trigger.  

No, but I anxiously awaken now at 5:30am everyday with an irresistible urge to check the Bitstamp price on my phone.

Thanks China..

Yup, they'll get liquidated at auction probably in several years..  Might cause a sudden drop of a few % at that time, but it wouldn't be different than the 30% daily swings we're already used to.    

It's 1% of the market.  Not 10% / 15%.  Not going to put on my tinfoil hat over it...

We pushing back through $200 tonight?  Quick, but consistent, recovery.

Technically, if this ever became a real threat (if they had, say, 10+% of coins), consensus could be reached to just block all transactions from known Gov't public addresses...  I don't see what much they could do with 2% of available coins, beyond very briefly crash the market.  These actions would:

(1)  Cost them $$$.  They wouldn't get max dollar for liquidating their bitcoins if they just drove the price down.
(2)  It would be completely transparent to everyone!  They couldn't secretly do this.  Everyone in the public would know, and it'd be a PR disaster...  The beauty of the Bitcoin protocol is that they can't hide what they do with these funds.

I was just saying theoretically it could be done, if a malicious entity had some absurd % of existing bitcoins.  I don't generally support it, but it has been raised by others numerous times on these forums.  That's all really..

I seriously doubt the US gov't would act with malicious intent with that 1%/2% of BTC because, largely, of point (2)...  transparency.

That cup handle is getting bigger...

Just normal capitulation continuing, me thinks.  Low volume.  Might slip to like $180. 

Maybe Monday the rocket will light. 

Everything is possible, right?  You wouldn't dump 10k coins, which would maybe be at an average sale price of, say, $180, unless you thought it would crash further and were pretty confident of it.  You'd either be hoping you could purchase those 10k coins back at a lower price afterwards, than $180 (good luck with that), or you seriously think it's unlikely the price of bitcoin will pass $180 (as for dumping 10k bitcoins) over the next few years.  

Given a possible cup and handle forming, and the general consensus that, pending no really bad news, this appears to be a consolidation before pumping north, it would seem extremely dumb... but who knows.  Always possible, not probable.  Maybe an epic fail mis-click?    

I'd be afraid to even short right now, because if feels like, at any second, a few nice buy orders stringed together could set off a rampage north.  But that's just me (and really not based on much).

Well consensus is an interesting "statistic", isn't it.  I can't prove it or show you a survey, but it's what most people seem to be stating on the Speculation sub-forum from what I've seen (and r/bitcoin).  More and more people are taking long positions on Bitfinex as well (just looking at the Loan page).  It's a clear biases, on a Bitcoin forum... sure.  

Good idea or best idea?

I think we're busting north, and I'd cut your loses... but that's just me.  If you're looking for any remote resemblance of consensus among speculators (r/BitcoinMarkets, Speculation sub-forum, etc), that's it right now.  

Doubtful it's happening tonight or tomorrow with this volume, but once it start moving it could move pretty quick.  In my amateur opinion, shorting is very risky right now.  Going long after another drop would probably be a real nice spot... if it happened.

EDIT: There's also a lot of people picking up long positions on Bitfinex the last few days.  Can't find a USD loan under ~100/200% APR right now (a month ago you could find 30 or 40% easily).  This at least says something about sentiment.

lol, you're probably the most honest person in this thread.

Highly, highly doubt (C) based on all the bullish news these past few months, including:

- Chinese volume/movement, including Baidu news
- SecondMarket, expose of Bitcoin to $$$$
- Closure of SR, media attention surrounding that
- Michael Novogratz endorsement: "Come back in a few years and it's going to be worth a lot."
- Bitcoin ATM in Canada (world's first)

This just isn't the same climate, with the same risks, as 6 months ago.  $100 is long gone, pending very, very bad and improbable news.

Just saw end of World Series game 3 (I'm a Cards fan)...   Holy shit, what a final play (bottom of the 9th)!  Anyone catch it?

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?c_id=stl&content_id=31185453&topic_id=28898650

lol

Not on this volume, though that could change quickly (if people start eating into $200 quite a bit).

Those Chinese are gamblers, love the volatility.  Pushing 1190 CNY (~$195) on btcchina.

Least some volume has finally returned..

The dollar is down relative to my appetite index 600% today. 

Feel like this could get out of control running north pretty quick (possibly).  Volume has been pretty low though/non existent at times.   Early week is bound to be interesting.

I know man.  Craziness... almost shit my pants watching that live. 

Next game starts in... 30 minutes.

Engage seat belt.

That chart is lookin hurtin for a squirtin'.

Buyer contacted me on localbitcoins for an in person meetup (probably tomorrow).  I'm in a smaller town, so doesn't happen often (once like 6 months ago).  He's been following the action and wants in.  

Word slowly getting out..  more media attention the better (and they'll be a ton if we bust through the ATH).

Why would the Winklevoss be selling their shares (granted, to other investors) if they're still "very bullish" on bitcoin?  Wouldn't it obviously be in their interest to purchase more bitcoin for any other investors in the fund, since that would just drive the price up further anyway?

lol

standard..

Half the 210 wall has disappeared.

It's funny.  When Bitcoin drops, I feel a little sad (usually).  If it continues to drop, I start getting happy again, because the opportunity may arise to get some cheap, cheap btc.    

$130 would be amazing, because I'd be near 100% confident it'd bounce back to $200 within a few months.

Once we officially bust through the ATH, there's no coming back.  Don't hate.

There's been a LOT of capitulation that's already happened after this recent correction.  There hasn't been much profit to take since by dumping, and there certainly hasn't been any exponential growth since.


Seems logical that someone would buy 1,000 bitcoins, at any price, if they believed the price would be climbing higher in the near future.  The actual price is arbitrary.  "Surely come down if they just wait" is not so "sure".  If it were, the price would have already collapsed (certainly if it were as obvious as you make it sound).


Everyday about 10 people allude to how far the price could collapse, during upward movement, due to a large market sale and slippage.  They seem to not even consider that most people would put up a sell wall instead of dumping, unless they liked throwing money away.  When does a dump become more profitable?  Perhaps when there's an obvious bubble and fear that someone else will dump before your ask wall gets eaten into (like last weeks exponential growth).  Right now, and with China's buying pressure, it would seem a state of borderline retardation to dump a huge market sell with significant slippage.  But that's just me..

I'm no expert, but this makes sense to me.  As a bubble expands, the theoretical risk of another big seller market dumping with slippage gets greater and greater.  At some point (and maybe it's "feel") that risk becomes sufficient that market dumping is a better strategy than putting up a sell wall and hoping a dump doesn't happen before someone takes your offer.

You bears are going to be pissed pretty soon (probably already).  

10$ to 100$ in a few months and we hear nothing.  Now 100$ to 200$ over 6 months, with new investors and positive news, and that's unsustainable..  

Going from 1$ to 100$ isn't even questioned, but a double up over 6 months and everyone is shitting their pants.  Do you realize how tiny this market still is?  2 billion market cap, lol.

It's psychology.  Do you see how epic 100$ to 200$ seems to a bear?  It's a mere double up.  1$ to 10$ is a 900% increase.

And I meant we hear nothing now, not then.

Not greed, speculators play a very important role in markets.  And obviously it's valued on its potential.  You'd be a pretty broke investor if you weren't looking or attempting to anticipate the future.

You're a little bitch if you sold yesterday or early today.  

Peace and love.

It seems pretty obvious, at least to me, that new users coming in and purchasing BTC pushes the price up.  These new users just buy.  They don't ask "uhh but I guess I shouldn't buy, my future buy has already been priced in by others!"

This does induce bubbles (overbuying).

Good point.  Clearly no ATH should ever be surpassed, in any market..    

Berkshire Hathaway appears to be doing fine at ~$180,000 /share

"Priced In" Example

What if you just focused in on (1) typical speculator, for simplicity.  This speculator is speculating on the value of Bitcoin.  Like any speculator, he has a finite amount of fiat money he is willing to invest, even when he's most bullish.  We'll say this amount is $1,000.

Say that typically he holds 50/50 of that $1000 between fiat and Bitcoin.  When he feels more bullish, he invests heavier in Bitcoin.  When he feels bearish, he invests heavier in fiat.  But he has a finite amount that he'll invest.  At maximum "bullishness", he pushes all $1000 into Bitcoin.

Let's assume news comes out that is very bullish in nature, and our speculator invests the full $1000 in Bitcoin.  Perhaps other speculators do similar.  This does not undermine the fact that "new money" may now enter the "speculation pool".  This "new money" has no option but to invest in Bitcoin, as obviously the "new money" has no Bitcoin yet to sell.  Increased demand > Increased price.

Is the initial "speculation pool", prior to the introduction of "new money", not similarly restricted to the finite fiat it can invest?  How can a small, limited speculation pool fully "price in" new money, when they have a limited amount they will ever invest (and may already be fully leveraged)?

It seems to me "new money" might induce bubbles, where prior speculators, in particular, choose to sell out.  It doesn't seem apparent to me that "new money" can be completely priced in, in a relatively small speculation pool with limited resources.

Point: A relatively small speculation pool (Bitcoin speculators) can not fully "price in" any amount of incoming new money before it arrives.  Their resources to do so are severely restricted by the size of the pool.

I think it could be.  But there is only one place, to my knowledge, where you can take a leveraged position on Bitcoin currently.  That's Bitfinex.  Two points there:

(1) Bitfinex has a limited amount of fiat loans available, due to it's size, and they dry up very quickly in any bullish market.
(2) Not every speculator (or even most) are willing to increase their risk further via long/short positions, especially when APRs are high.  The variance in BTC price alone is often high enough for the money they're willing to risk.

I just bought 1 bitcoin for $206 on Coinbase.  Aren't I crazy?

Actually, some guy visited me via Localbitcoins.com to buy 1 btc off me.  I had to immediately replenish my stash after he left.   

Ya, he was completely new to it.  He started talking about the story of the guy who turned $26 into $800k or whatever.    

Had to show him how to make an online wallet with Coinbase so I could send him the btc.  I enjoy it though, and was completely new to it myself only 6 months ago.  Made $8 off the transaction, but really do it more to meet people into Bitcoin on occasion.  He'll probably be back for more at some point.  I just try to be nice and helpful, and get a new recruit and bitcoin enthusiast.  

I think Gox is dead and just passively tracking btcchina these past few days.   

r/bitcoin has exploded today with people asking about buying/getting into bitcoin..  pretty interesting to watch and participate in.

News flash:  Small "Bitcoin market" (2 billion market cap... lol) doesn't have infinite money to fully price in any amount of incoming new money.  Many speculators are already full vested/leveraged.

Ahhhh!!  Panic selling!!!   dump dump dump before it's too late!!  

$20 bitcoin by 5pm

Much healthier distribution than, say, April.  Stamp 85% of Gox USD volume (30 day).

All the new blood on r/bitcoin are being told to stay away from Gox and buy BTC on Stamp or Btc-e.  LOL

For a noob?  Because they heard it was "the best exchange" (maybe 6 months ago). 

Everyone else?  To get fiat off, of course.  Right now you could flip it on Coinbase/Stamp for like 2% difference.

I suspect it's because n00bs buying bitcoins are buying on Stamp.  Coinbase is also growing... don't they buy via Stamp?

It's surprising Gox users don't take advantage of the small spread to get fiat off there..  I suppose it's only traders left who want to be there and play the volatility.

Like your US dollars?    

Samson extends Newton's law of gravity to value.  Logical conclusions, unfortunately, were never his bread n' butter.

So many broke Joes trying to get cheap coins by making completely empty statements that no one will take seriously.  "Trust him" lol!

Not too late to swallow your ego and buy back in before you miss the boat.  Bon voyage!

Conclusion:  He's got great leg movement.  We all could learn a thing or two.

You're surprised ask depth is deeper than bid during an upward trend?  Is this your first day looking at a depth chart?  lol so funny..

To be frank, then, we should probably also have a bot repeating how bid depth is less than ask, and "how far we'd panic crash" ("omg omg!") if everyone just dumped, for no apparent reason.  This is repeated daily, and it's supposed to instill fear in everyone who's clueless.  It's hardy an observation when you hear it everyday.

Gox has been completely dead for days.  All Stamp (or Coinbase), btcchina.

Stamp now ~86% of 30 day Gox volume (USD).

24 hrs
Gox: 7k volume
Stamp: 18k
Btcchina: 14k

Btcchina pretty much irrelevant?  Did you just come out of four week coma?   

USD is by far the main currency traded on Gox..

Some old grandma at the ATM?

Wow 194$ on Gox.. 

Their recent volume is equal to their influence.

O lawd how the mighty fall.  Hilarious to watch.

We're long past that point..

No one has money "stuck on Gox".  That's the biggest load of horseshit that people keep pushing.  Gox fiat has had ample opportunities to get off (the current spread with Coinbase is like 3%) and people aren't doing it.  If anything, there's been selling pressure on Gox the last few days.  The spread with Stamp has consistently been under 5%.

Also, to the "whales justifying loss" point (not disagreeing with you), any whale who deposited fiat on Gox several months ago and took a 5% loss today (by selling on Stamp, say) would still be up quite a bit.  Probably a shit ton.  There wouldn't be any "big loss".  We're trading over $200 again after all.

Ya I stole it. 

Thanks for posting it.

Lawd almighty..  4,800btc volume over 24hrs.

Sure everyone else is watching the rabbit in the room..  

I'll bet Coinbase had more 24hr volume.

Did you just learn about Bitfinex today?  People have been taking long and short positions on there for some time now.


At least you admit off the bat that you're pulling this out of your ass..

I could say the exact same thing about people with short positions on Bitfinex, and land at the exact opposite conclusion.  Then we'd both be pulling something out of our ass.

Epic name change.

Now watch Gox have 100k volume tomorrow...  

In all seriousness though, one Wall Observer for BTC/USD makes more sense to me, and opens it up to more interesting conversation.  Gox (for now, at least), Stamp (Coinbase), BTC-E.  Much more interesting and with  "the times".

That's actually interesting.  Gambling sites that allow US players have been shut down in the past by the Department of Justice, including poker sites Full Tilt Poker and Pokerstars.  Bodog (sports betting) got shut down.  What's to prevent Gov't from shutting down Just-Dice or whatever?  They clearly service US players..



UIEGA: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unlawful_Internet_Gambling_Enforcement_Act_of_2006

Do you really think that's what I'm asking?

The domain name cannot be seized and owners prosecuted because... of bitcoins??  

30-Day Volume (BTC/USD)
Gox: 617.5k
Stamp: 568.6k
BTC-E: 280k

Stamp at ~ 92% of Gox 30 day volume.  Crossover soon?

Probably not before Stamp resolves their engine issues for serious traders.  Weren't they having major lag during high traffic a few weeks ago?

+ 1.0

Little bit sick.. got bored with zero Bitcoin movement for days, and started playing some online poker again.

Fawwwwk, getting my ass handed to me.   

Please start moving again Bitcoin, for my own good.

Yes, I can be a bit of a degenerate on the weekends..   

Just small stakes anyway..  but need some action in the afternoon.  Anything.

That's CAD though, of course.. not USD.

Little buzzed.. bitcoiner coming over to buy .269 btc.  He came over and bought 1 btc from me last week... real nice guy.  Apparently he needs it now...  

Love bitcoiners

Rrrrrrrrace for the $220 coins !



Action prior to Monday, maybe catalyzed by the ebay chit chat?

Ya, good points.  Stamp does have some "stopping power" to kind of snap Gox back down when it doesn't follow.  It be can a sort of chess match of who caves first when the difference is larger than usual.  Will Stamp snap up or will Gox eventually snap back down.  With Stamp's increasing influence (and I suspect Coinbase, indirectly), it's been less likely to just follow Gox without forethought.

They just said they're watching it, basically.  Nothing I don't think hasn't already been said.  His positive outlook on the future of "digital currencies" is nice to hear of course.

Agreed, I like the ChartBuddy occasional bump, but don't much like the figure.

You can sell 50 btc on Coinbase right now for over $214/btc..  they must be killing for btc right now (maybe lots of buyers on the other side I assume).

Of course, if Coinbase has a ton of n00b buyers looking to buy (because of ease, whatever) at almost any price, they'll pay whatever for sell orders long as they're making a nice % (as sort of their own offline exchange).

Looks like Sunday was the time to jump the deposit wave, which I suspect we'll continue at least for a few days.

How about a 500k market order?

End of Day high - Contact!

So man people ITT beggin for cheap coins..  No more cheap coins bros.  Cats out the bag to too many deep pockets.

Give me your public address though, and I'll send you a Satoshi to get you started back up.  

Chip and a chair, as they say.

He tries so hard...

"A" for effort sir.  That's what counts.

Agreed, poor taste.  Would you show a GIF of the twin towers collapsing a few months after 9/11 to infer that a market crash was incoming?  Me thinks not.

But moving on...   

Almost went long.  Couldn't stomach 60+% APR on Bitfinex..    :/  

Funny thing is, I think we're just getting started. 

To be frank though, if we'd gone down would you have told everyone about your obvious play?   

I'll bet you would have kept that one to yourself.   

wow, just blew my mind.

Please change thread title to "Super-positioned Wall Observer..."

Right?  So sick of 240..  (Gox)

Wow, they're everywhere...

Forget everything you thought you knew about trading.  Or don't.  Or do both, at the same time...   

Someone should respond to horny Betty:
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinBeginners/comments/1pw9ow/glad_to_see_im_not_the_only_noob_on_the_block_haha/

She's new to Bitcoin...

Jesus.. at work.  Have to keep sneaking to the bathroom to check the charts, shit changes so quick.

Lol

As long as we don't hear "266!"

SOB.  Bitcoin at -8734$ (Gox).  It's basically a debt obligation to everyone who doesn't own bitcoins.  

I have heard of this so called Stampede...

Seriously don't get who the guys are panic selling 100/200 bitcoin blocks on Stamp after we'd already dropped from $250 to $230..  Had that much changed in 10 minutes that they were holding strong at $250, but then 10 minutes later they're putting up an ask wall of 200 btc at $231??

Stronger hands scoop'd it (maybe leveraged positions on Bitfinex for a quick profit).

Now back at $245.

You're making pretty obvious observations.  So you're telling us all that there's likely to be selling pressure at an ATH?

Let me write that one down before I forget...

Ut oh... little late night action on Gox?

Solid contact at 260.  

6!!

In celebration, here are 6 heavenly blessed beauties..

3!!

Bid depth is always low when you move up this rapidly..  Most people would just put up a sell wall to get max bang for their buck rather than sell into mass slippage.  Unless, of course, they thought it was a race to dump (peak of a bubble).

We already saw mass slippage to market sells earlier today.

Three heavenly blessed beauties for 3 to go..

They look pumped.

Crash attempt coming...    

God that felt good..

Maybe they suspect they'll be a "break out" since we crossed the ATH.

And didn't spring back down at 264 / 265$

Funny how if you were looking to purchase $1,000,000 worth of bitcoin now, Gox would probably be the cheapest way (considering very little slippage).  You'd feel reasonably confident the price would climb immediately after as well (not that you could unload $1,000,000 worth of btc for a profit immediately after or anything... but still).

I take Stamp and Coinbase as better indicators of bullish/bearishness for the USD market.  Almost all new money is coming through Coinbase and Stamp IMO.

How is that?  Seems like a great time to short on Bitfinex, if anything, actually...  especially if we gravitate back toward a 5-10% spread between Stamp and Gox.

It'd be a short with a pretty short time frame though.  We're almost certainly going further north in the "longer" term (beyond the next 2 weeks).

My suspicion is that Gox is left largely with traders now.  They aren't trying to get off Gox.  They're drawn to the historic volatility.

All 2 years of it.

I thought I would never say this..

but I wish I had fiat on Gox..

Yes...  there's still a freaking 5k wall.

Gox has plenty of fiat.  They don't have either (a) good US banking partners or (b) the required licenses.. still.

Stamp: $272
Gox: $266.9

LOL!

Wow, Stamp touched $275, with Gox at $266.90.

Honestly surprised a whale hasn't scoop'd up several k of this wall now..

Easy $$ at this point.

One month ago...

Would you have thought such a thing even possible?

Can someone say how high the wall was to begin with exactly (from this one seller)?  Didn't catch it.

Over/Under on when this wall falls ?

Put it at 50 minutes.

Funny, this 700 btc wall t $270 looks oddly small now..

Make no mistake.  "Gox bucks" are still worth less than Stamp bucks.  Someone's got to eventually snap up or down quite a bit, and sooner than later.

700 BTC wall on Gox looks so small now.. 

He did the community a service though, by selling off so much cheap btc..  

Someone is trying hard to crash the market on Gox.  Can't think of why else you'd dump 50+btc into $270 when asks are getting eaten at $274.  Completely illogical.

The problem is Stamp/Coinbase simply don't give a fck anymore..

Cup and handle, and then a breakout?  Steep climb may be over for a bit..   

Seems we may keep pumping north, without any major, lengthy correction, as long as these healthy little corrections and consolidation periods continue.

At least, that would be ideal..  

It seems official...  cat's officially out of the bag.  No more super cheap coins (under ~$100), unless we go to zero.

^ Is that a dynamic wallpaper?

Very distracting.

Guy who sold 10k at $256btc or whatever on Gox... now on suicide watch.

Agreed.  Just so much bullish news, in general, and a much better state of affairs than during March/April.  Keep in mind that all this time people continue to buy in to the SecondMarket "Trust".  That's interesting for (2) reasons, in particular:

(1)  This is amounting to 10k+ coins being purchased by the trust every few weeks (maybe even every week now)
(2)  These coins can only be bought, and not sold (not till the fund goes liquid, at least)

I actually think Barry at SecondMarket is a bit of a genius with what he's done with this Fund.  He was pretty confident he'd get investors, and the money from those investors was almost sure to help drive the price up, and only further support any rally.  The more the price goes up, the more his other "sophisticated investors" catch wind and want to jump in... the more we climb.  Barry is also a true believer in Bitcoin, and definitely knows that an increasing market cap will only create more incentive for start ups to jump into the space, only draw more media attention, etc.... it all feeds off itself, and helps Bitcoin reach critical mass.

China is going vertical.  Slow it down China...

Will btcchina snap down, or will Stamp and Gox eventually cave and snap up?

Btcchina sitting at ~$403.

O lawwwwwdy, lawd.  Did 2500 CNY just get ripped through?  

Btcchina is on a tear, with no end in sight.

~17% difference between Stamp and btcchina atm.  Sweet arbitrage gods...  Hard to believe that arbitrage isn't possible and worth while for some.

It feels like the USD market (Stamp/Gox) is just a bit more matured.  Btcchina is all over the place.  Stamp/Gox didn't follow the insane-ness, probably saved a bigger dip.

Back to business.

Man, I'm ready to go long.  That snap panic sale recovery..  right?

Translation:  "Did you notice that if some idiot put a $1M market sale on Stamp, at an average price of $280 (because he loves to lose lots of money), we'd crash to $250?"

I am trying too..  can't find my damn phone for 2FA..

Nice healthy correction and return to motion..

Remember that arbitrage opportunity when Stamp was like $5 OVER Gox?

So sick brah.

God, I love a good, healthy correction.  Otherwise shit gets sketchy quick.

Nice n' healthy.  I love it.



MAC Donalds, I'm lovin' it.

MAC Donalds, I'm lovin' it.

Someone once told me whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger..

Four hour period is a trend now?

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1q8495/shopify_has_officially_integrated_bitcoin/

Bullish?

We might see a lot of more well-funded start ups begin jumping into the Bitcoin space soon.  The incentives increase with the market cap.

Naval @3:10, says ~$3-5B market cap range:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jl-HZWfxUFw

We're sitting over $4B at Stamp rates now.  Passed $3B a while ago as well (sat around ~$2B for quite a while).

Just wait till Monday..  we showed we could bust through the ATH and move onward.  Very strong... much more deposit $$$ coming to the exchanges, and indirectly to be continually scoop'd up via the "Trust" (bitcoin that can be bought, but not sold... not for a while).

Now once that EFT finally gets here...  Pre-1k era of speculating is over.

Sorry, I thought I was in the Speculation sub-forum.    

I imagine there's no where you could get data like that.  I think people here have had a pretty good track record, in general, of anticipating new money flowing into the exchanges, just given the dynamics at any moment and indications of new interest (news, notable events, etc.).  I could certainly be wrong, but it's at least open to rational discussion and, yes, speculation.

Someone contact Snowden.

Lovin' this bit of consolidation recently.  Just lovin it.

Of course I have no $$ where I need it to catch the bottom of this..

Aren't they?

My cannons are loaded at three hundo. (Stamp)

Fuck yes.  Went long at ~$281 avg , sold at $320.  Quickest $ ever.   

Last chance to grab your cheap bitcoins..  

No, I mean just closed my long positions. 

And thee was absolutely no news today...    

Gotta love the panic sheep-le

One minute they're holding tight at $380.  20 minutes later they're hot to dump their load for $310.  LOL!

I agree.  We hate these things in the short run, but it's great for the long run (if we could just have a little more patience).

Increased my stash almost 5btc.  

Now let's start going back up..

Nice, clean, controlled capitulation..  I like this.  Heading north again soon.

I'll tell ya what.  I'm lovin' it.

Literally sitting here with a bag of popcorn.

no joke.

I've just been taking some long positions in the dips.. mostly for fun.  

I thought we might settle back at ~$350 on Gox today, setting up for Monday (in case another bullish week ensues following this).  Plenty of volume now though.  Certainly plenty of capitulation this weekend from those taking down profits..

Funny the herd mentality.  At ~$400 (Gox), we were "going to 1k!" before a correction back to $500, etc.  Now, at a 25% discount (and no devastating news, etc.), everyone is too scared to buy.  "Going to zero!!!"  "Get out get out!!"   lol!  

What's changed in 48 hrs to make a 25% discount such an obviously bad opportunity?

The market was going up, day after day, and you "predicted" a mathematical certainty (that there would eventually be a correction or crash)?    

Oh, thank you guru.  Good luck with your double digit goals.  Did you sell at $205 a few weeks ago expecting to pick up some "cheap coins"?      

^ No way that is a serious post.  I refuse to believe it...  

I do like the color you chose for the arbitrary lines though.  Usually people just go with red, but I see you got creative with purple.

Lot of money to be made in this volatility.    

gamble, gamble

Up 17% in btc stash over this weekend.   

Still puts me down since the large correction/"crash", like I assume most people.

Attempt to crash?

Back up to $350 soon.   

Wow, triple apple bottom forming

Incoming apple bottom...

oh my

Very spot on.

I notice this every time I see a new "Did I miss the opportunity" or "Is it too late to get in" type of post.  These people are all thinking in the extreme short term.

$260 on Gox by Tuesday.

Can anyone explain why anyone would sell on Btc-e for less than they could get on Stamp?  Is it because of trading between LTC and others or something?

It's in the back of my mind.  I'm always keeping an eye on apple bottoms.

Am I a wizard?

You guys have got to watch for those dub apps.

Cmon Gox, stop being a little bitch and go back to 350$.

I saw something!

12:17:24   371.42000   0.0258

$430 by Friday.

 

You heard it here first mates.

These healthy corrections on the way up are important IMO.  Instill confidence in the price level.

Looks working to me.

Agreed.  Great having three or four big exchanges now instead of one.  They're all still a bit incompetent, but rarely, if ever, will they all be at the same time.    

Think the trend is still clearly north, but I wouldn't be surprised if we chilled here for a while or even dropped a little now.

 

That's gold, Jerry.

Rubbing it in the wound..   

Double top or plow right through?

Ya.. if wasn't for China, I'd say a lot of resistance again.  If China plows through though it'll prob be pretty uneventful.

I believe before this last "correction", China went as high as like $430 USD at one point.

Ya, they just started going straight vertical..  

Gox lagged behind like 40 bucks for a while, then someone intelligent thought to dump in USD to trigger the sell off (since obv China was bubbling and awaiting a catalyst).

Man, wish Bitfinex APRs weren't 200+% now..  insane.

We should tell so Bitcoin haters about Bitfinex, and how they can deposit some fiat and loan it to us idiots and make 50% APR easy..  They wouldn't need to ever even touch bitcoins!

It is among traders.

APR's would be lower, if it weren't for people eating them up the second they're offered.

$440 (Gox) by Saturday.

When the reporter asks where you heard it...

lmfao, you serious?  Link?

China is hungry.

But all they have are chop sticks.   

Aww.. poor bears..   

Salt in the wound bro.. salt in the wound.

Look at Mt Gox.  Like the retarded step child..

Bullish?

https://www.coinsprings.com/

I hear Satoshi lurks in Speculation still, even occasionally posts under another name.

So, yes, you are.

Because it's statistically very unlikely. 

Would be funny though..

God, is it really that easy to make money in a free market?

Sell on Friday, buy back Sunday..  lol!

In the meanwhile..

Btcchina at almost $400, compared to Stamp at $365.  And still apparently no one has figured out the arbitrage.

Now look what you did.  You crashed Stamp.

I'm not implying most people could do it.  But surely someone could do it, and would be doing it, you'd think.

I've slept with a gun under my pillow ever since I first found Bitcoin.

Sure, but still at some point it must become profitable for someone..  If btcchina was at $1m/bitcoin and Btc-e was at $100/bitcoin, someone wouldn't take advantage?

Cmon homeboy

Bunch of retarded bears ruinin' the day.

I can't even go to the zoo anymore.  I see the bears and just lose it..

Such blood sucking parasites.

Then they aren't very efficient.

$409.  Looking like a little breakout.

Oh God, that's hilarious.

Might have to roll one tonight in celebration..

Bitcoin-er problems..

If he doesn't need the money, why is he selling at all?  Hell, sell 10 btc every $100 if it makes you feel better about taking profits on occasion.

And into stronger hands.

Darwin.

Maybe it's just because I'm high, but wouldn't it be epic if you actually had a "conversation" or exchange with Satoshi back in the early days (on forums or whatever)?  Knowing you were one of the few, and it wasn't even a big deal at the time?    

The reality is that we currently live in a fiat world.  So you'd think volume would drop off (in btc) as price doubles/triples..

Yup.  Going to suck balls when it crashes from $4k to $600 for a few seconds, and then back to $1.2k.

Very scary stuff.

?

It's a joke..  stop thinking so hard.

Sorry, lots of demand and the general public is getting a clue..  No more cheap bitcoins.    

You can still swallow your pride though, chalk this one up to bad luck, and buy back in..  You can even keep it your little secret.  

$15?  LMAO

I fcking hope so.  I'll max my credit cards out.

I could see us tracking back a little now before continuing north.  Nothing major.

lol, that is a good point.

$449 will be the crash.  It's the next prime number.  Big psychological barrier, especially with the nerdier crowd.

Feels like 888 on btcchina wasn't too long ago..

Here's to you, Bitcoin.  You crazy sonuvabitch.

Just lol'ing at the bears.   they're so funny..

Just watching it run away hopelessly.  lmfao



More Bears:



Look at this cute little bear:

`

Definitely.  Not a word in an investor's vocab.  

We're not definitely or obviously doing anything.

With big money coming in to Bitcoin now, plus China, I think a $300/$400 price tag is quite reasonable.

Most importantly, public perception is much different than 6 months ago.  Bitcoin is no longer viewed as "the popped bubble" that clearly was a scam and dismissible.  Bitcoin has surpassed the previous "bubble pop" in under 1 year.  The technology is actually taken more seriously.  People are taking the time to actually understand Bitcoin.  This is easily observable in just the media's presentation of Bitcoin over the past few weeks.  It's hard to think of a more powerful and motivating outcome, than something that fully recovers and surpassed a previous ATH, post-devastating crash, in such little time.  That is a serious statement to people on the outside.  Public perception, when there's so much usage to gain, is most important.  To dismiss it as so insignificant is, I think, a mistake.

Thoughts in context.

Good luck locating a reversal.  Here are some random possibilities:

- Up to $440, crash to $150s, settle at $250
- Up to $2400, crash to $600, settle at $900
- Up to $500, sit in $400s for 3 months...?

- etc etc ....

We could be no where near a peak, and you haven't provided any quantitative evidence to suggest this is the peak.  In April, didn't we go from like $30 to $266 (almost a 10x increase)?

I'm holding long term anyway, so I could care less about when/where the "peak" is, and to what level panic sellers may, at any moment, temporarily crash the market to.  I've occasionally taken a long position when I felt we've panic dipped further than expected, but that's about it.  You (not necessarily you specifically) probably shouldn't be investing in BTC though if you're constantly haunted by thoughts of crashing markets.  That can't be healthy.

This thread has gone full retard.

What did he say?

double apple bottom.

I'm looking forward to when we hit $10k/btc.  So glad I took those loans out.

Oh noes... healthy corrections everywhere!!   



Doomsday!!

Sell Sell, it is the great bubble of our time!

Make sure to get your market order in before we cross $1 on the way down.  It's every man, woman and child for his or herself.

$10 next time Winklevoss attempt to get people pumped about Bitcoin.

Fucking perma nervous, shaky bears.  Fucking rofl..

Shake it off bro.. we all make bad calls sometimes..

rofl

Hoping the train will just turn around for you? 

Bear critical mass in forum achieved.  

I spy weak hands.

LOL.  Yes, this hasn't exactly been a zero sum game. 

The difference between Stamp and Gox is still 8-9%, which is pretty typical.

Dat Chinese weekend volume.  They're starting to run away with the Bitcoins..



Funny how rapid things can change when China has 4x+ the US population.

The percentage difference is far from unusual... 9.5% now.

I'm really hoping we just go horizontal for like a week.. 

Seems to be fine now.

Seems we officially passed 2x the previous Gox ATH, if only for a moment..

Ahh, the beauty of multiple "leading" exchanges.  Even if each has some degree of incompetency, it's extremely unlikely all of them will fail at the same time (like Gox did during April).

Starting this Monday:

Some big buys on Stamp, price slowly catching up..

Bingo

Have we officially gone parabolic?  

In San Diego at ASME (engineer) conference... this is super distracting.

$7 Billion market cap.  It's going to be very neat to see more well-funded start ups that are bound to jump into the space now (with the added incentive).  Many more companies like Coinbase, Circle and others to come I'm sure.  

I don't see how we don't have another "bubble pop" with this parabolic rise, but I'm starting to think it might not be till ~$2k, and probably only a brief flash crash.  So much risk associated with gov't seems to have gone up in smoke today.  That's huge.

Regulatory pressure was, and still is, the biggest threat I think.  That anxiety has certainly diminished quite a bit in the last 48 hours.  That's what's interesting and unique about this parabolic rise.  Would we have gone parabolic if this "hearing", and surrounding commentary, never occurred?  It's not a true parabolic rise in a vacuum.  

Going back to regulation, I think it would be difficult to think of a better dynamic that could exist today, than the fact that China has jumped into the fray.  This makes it that much more risky for the US gov't to attempt to restrict innovation at home.  After all, "the competition has adopted Bitcoin".  A sort of financial arms race may be in the brewing.


FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!

No idea, but personally I almost feel more bullish (long term) now, even at today's price, than a week ago with that context and price.

2014 will be fun.

Nope, bear trap.  May sit here for a week though first.   

The "crash" sooner than later is a good thing.

Concerning the USD exchanges... wow.  I would have trouble fucking up this much if I went out with the intention of doing so.  You would have thought "lesson learned" in April, but apparently not.

This is as much the fault of traders who continue to return to Gox.

I'd like to see the loser-board...

My guess is they don't share that.   

I'm so confident in the 800s right now, I don't even care that we're falling.

Gox'r trying to crash the market.  Stamp's not buying it.  

LOL!  SO funny to watch the Gox bears..