Someone please tell me why Bitstamp is holding back.

Ok, but 60 bucks seems outa line to me.

That's not gonna happen for a long time.  Merchants will want a stable currency.  They have to buy in fiat, so they price in fiat converted to btc.  If they have to change their (btc) price every 15 minutes they will chuck it out with the garbage.

/Frank

I think you'll need more than that.  Mrs. Shopper looks very closely at the price tags attached to the items on the rack.

I agree about the CC raping though.

/Frank

That will probably work.

   Send my spouse out shopping with a btc loaded wallet.  Bleah!

On another note:  Gox seems to be stabilizing ~ 1080 while stamp is disbelieving @ ~ 960.

You know what, Jojo?  Your answer to the merchant situation is the best I've heard.  

So what is the hold up?  The software side shouldn't be very difficult.  Educating the merchants might take a while, but the advantages would be apparent.  The public shouldn't care much either way.  

Perhaps the one thing the merchant will need is a way to get his fiat back quickly.

/Frank

There is every reason to believe that many businesses besides merchants will love btc, but the process has to start somewhere.

If many merchants are in love with btc they may pressure their suppliers to take it as payment.  As the wholesalers accept the new payment method they may request to pay the producer in kind.  The ball would really be rolling then.

Online stores are a perfect place to accept btc.

/Frank

Thanks.  I'll go do that right now.  Only thing going on in the markets is a bunch of bots anyhow.

Banks again.  I just read the wiki on M-Pesa and the references to banks were everywhere.  So, I suppose, what btc needs is a clearinghouse.

Noted that IBM was/is involved in the 'Development and second line support' details of M-Pesa.  Shouldn't be too long before we hear something from that powerhouse inre bitcoin.

/Frank

Looks like gox wants to go up some more.

Any volume going on at BTCe ?

Gox is puny.

Hmmm.  $20 quick sell down.

Big guy snapped those up quick tho.  lol

I’m thinking of ways to change my long-term strategy.  All-in or all-out is just not flexible enough for me.  The overall plan disregards my mining revenue, as it will always go into cold storage, and items for everyday consumption will continue to be paid in fiat.  Therefore, my strategy only deals with my disposable, discretionary, income.

So far, I have the following as a working model:
1.   One-half of the funds go into btc for cold storage ( to be kept until ::shrug:: )
2.   The other half goes into a crypto trading account
3.   Of the funds in the trading account, no more than 50% invested at once.  The remainder (trading reserve) used to catch corrections as and where possible, then cashed back to the trading reserve.
4.   Monthly profits from the trading account (yes, big assumption there) will follow the 50% rule from 1 and 2 above.
5.   Revisit the model on a quarterly basis and adjust as required.

This seems like a reasonable plan based on my risk tolerance.  Reasonable is relative of course, but I would like some of you old timers to point out any flaws that I may have overlooked.

/Frank



Turkey on the table, so I'll be back to catch the flak later.

Ya.  The last fifteen minutes have been really interesting on gox.  Mass market orders going left and right.

And about 5.5k coins changed hands pretty damn quick.

Here we go again.  Yay bitcoin.

Notice this:  Gox hasn't crashed yet.

I suck at predicting, but it looks like a test of the 1000 mark at gox.

You know, for all the pissin and moanin we do here Gox is the place to day trade.

Here we go again.  

edit;  Nope.  Head fake.

Go baby.  Go!

Nice little 55 point runup there.  Take a breather and let's do it again.   

Absolutely agree.  In at 1142 out at 1197.  Now we wait for the next move.

Gox touched 1232.987 for a moment.

Nice run.  Wish I hadn't been trapped with family.

Looks like gox wants to go higher.  1500 anyone?

 BTCChina: 1225.87/7475

 Mt.Gox: 1237.14384

That oughta make headlines tomorrow.

Well crap!  Get bored with straight lines, go take a nap, wake up and woopsie.  Missed one again.  Wonder if 1200 is gonna hold?

edit:  1220

If this (gox) stuff follows the pattern, then get ready for a big bear dump.  Followed by another runup and a sell off back to the support from this morning.  We'll see.

Well.  So much for patterns and recent trends.   

Even an 'unhealthy' correction (say down to 500) could be a good thing.  At that level many more people would/could buy in.  And, since we know that it has been to 1220 once, it is likely to go there again.

It's obv that I agree with you.  Heh.  When I first bought (way, way, back in Sept lol)  I thought I had fallen for the old 'buy at the top' trick at $122.

Dumb luck.  I actually gave bitcoin a pass back in 2010.   

I just took a quick peek but it looks similar to the bot trades at gox.

Sorry.  Wasn't arguing with you.  I looked for like a minute and saw the same small trades that I see on gox.

Okay.  It's after 1600 on the west coast of USA.  Time for you bears to get it going.  Sell.  Sell now.  The world may end soon if you don't sell.

How many would you buy if the price leveled off at 800?  How many would you buy today?

Damn.  Leave it to someone smarter than me to destroy my logic. 

You, sir, are quite correct.

Gox moves!

We now return you to your regularly scheduled program.

I always wonder what possesses someone to dump like that.  If they wanted profits they could have bled it into the buyers a little at a time and made more $, although on a slightly longer time frame. 

Unless they are plumb dumb and thought it would change the market sentiment.  ::shrug::

Yeah.  Didn't think it thru.

I think Vycid said it pretty clearly, and I agree.  The unmentioned part that is exciting to me is the underlying value of the protocol/blockchain.  The rest is us speculating on the future price of the mining reward.

Not to derail this interesting topic, but I think it is neat that a couple of sells totaling ~72000 USD doesn't even faze Gox anymore.

Now there is some action.  

edit:  100 bitcoins soaked up without any hesitation.

Sell suckers, sell.

Not listening to me.  Ratz

Damn.  I may have missed the bottom of this run.

 

Yep.  I rarely ever hit the very bottom or the peak.  Got close enough though.  Small profits add up.

Now I suppose it's more of the straight line BS.

lol.  True, but as a trader I don't like sidewise motion.

Wow.  That's impressive.  Yeah and more fodder for the coin haterz.

Or not.  I'm growing worried that the incessant hype, evident on this site, of that greater per unit value is going to bite some otherwise innocent people where it hurts the most.

The present valuation of BTC is scary enough without the juveniles shouting 'we be the masters of the human race'.  After all, we are still in beta, true?

Yay.  Action.

edit:  No.  Flash pause.

What makes you say this?

Well down price doesn't always mean bearish.  But thanks.  I'll be watching.

Has there been a change in public sentiment?  Has the news media over there panned btc?

Fairly impressive downdraft on gox not too.  Hmmm.

Yeah.  I'm at the bottom ready to catch the apples when they fall.

Interesting.  The bottom of both gox and china hit at approx the same time.

Ohoh.  Double tweezers.  Sell Bears.

I just got a buy signal on china.  ::shrug::

Ratz.  That one triggered my stop loss.   

You could say that.  It's a DYI job.  The main components are an empty soda can, a length of mono filament fishing line*, and a used paint brush.

* I only use 20 lb test.  If you are after bigger fish you need stronger line.

Sigh.  That's all I needed to hear.  I already keep 4 windows open.  Now it'll be 5.

lol

And here I thought I was trolling.

XKCD strikes again.

Seriously, Goat, you would use a catch 22 to catch catfish.  Shame on you.

brb.  Gotta go catch that shark I lost a little while ago.

If I keep losing my bait like that I'll be walking instead of trains or rockets.

That's a simple rendition of the order book.

No problem.  That'll be 8 btc, please.

Man.  If you're an action junkie that China market is the place for you.

Yep.  And that small wall at 1150 got eaten.

Bear fest sure enough.

Didn't see all of them but there was a 1000 sell in there for sure.

Stop loss @ 10 below your top saves the day sometimes.

Yeah.  Panic is recommended.  Sell quick.

Looks like a good bear trap.

That old boy* who had 700 at 1160 didn't have a bit of trouble selling them all.  Now let's see if he gets back in in a big way.

*You know who you are.  We won't tell.

Another bear trap forming on China?

Nice one.

I'll be the first to admit that I don't have a good sense of the market right now.  If you care at all about market watching, there are more, and larger, red candles than green.  What that might mean is the question.

Seems that the market wants to go some lower.  Wonder if we'll test 1000.

I fool myself that I do have a sense of the market sometimes.  It usually passes.

Even the troll box at gox is quiet.  

Hi honey, I’m home.

Hi luv.  How was your day at the office?

Ho hum.  Made 3 trades but only one was good.  Still eked out a small profit.  What’s for dinner?

I made your favorite.  Roast bitcoin with EMA topping.

Bitcoin.  Yum.

Hell yeah!  Back online.

Was that the biggest bear trap ever on gox?

Hi ladies.  Glad to be able to read your priceless info again.

So, which way is informed prognosis pointing today?  Up, down, slipwise, gox, cny, stamp, other (except the sheep scare shite).

edit:  Just made a count using my extra special sentiment tracker.  Results = Bear 50 Bull 53, too close to call.

Your Kung Fu is stronger than mine.

I'm trying to decide if the weekend activities are just more of the same, although a little more exciting, or if there is a fundamental shift.  Lacking broader experience, and more information, I think I'll just hold off on trading for a bit.

We have similar circumstances, Richy_T.

I just took a long look at BitcoinWisdom on the 15m chart for cny.  Although all three markets, gox, stamp, cny, have a strongly correlated pattern, the china market seems a lot more bearish.  We know that cny leads at times, but as far as I can determine we can't tell until well after the fact if they were actually the leader.

Prolly mark all of that down to skewed, or screwed, perception on my part.

Thanks for that!  If you had said 'single digits by Friday' I would have crawled in my hole and cried.

Price discovery until a whale decides to move the market his way.

I see the same thing.  About twice as much volume for sellers than for buyers.

The thing about this is that we know bitcoin can supply fireworks in velocity.

edit:  Interesting that gox and cny are sliding sidewise while stamp is declining slightly.

Yes.  I've been watching.  Hoping.

I have to say that I share most of windjc's worries.  I too am holding.  And I have fiat ready to trade.

I suppose that I'm a little depressed that all of the furor over breaking 1k and the hurrahs over outpacing the price of gold diminished so quickly.  Perhaps those items were already priced in.

A sidewise market, that usually drifts lower, keeps my finger off of the trigger.  Someone pump me up, please.

edit:  Just say a nice green candle on cny.   

All right.  I'll accept that as pumping me up.  Somewhat.

I've just about blinded myself looking at the charts.  I'm starting to see wedges and waves when I close my eyes.  So, I'll just wait for consensus.

I just thought of something else that really cheers me up.  The persistent bears have been absent for a while.  Almost scary.

I like that one Vycid.  The escape hatches on the north-east end of the triangles is a good touch.

Note to self:  The next time you get these feelings. . . just buy!  Whadda f'n maroon.

Now what?  A delayed reaction?

Red candles everywhere.  Stamp down 50 points and looks like going lower.

Thanks Vigil.  I see the Dec 2 pattern.  You mentioned the algo somewhere above, but not sure how you got there.

1010 seems to have a small wall, so we'll see.  I was looking at cny when the sellers started, then changed to stamp.  Confusing my pea brain.

Is the algo trader working all four of the big exchanges or are the markets mature enough that a bounce in one triggers the others?

If I follow what you mean... not an algo trader.  Just an opportunity that was taken.

Correct?

Ya.  Just spent some fiat.  We'll see.

+1

Until the Sunday bitpay hits the market?

There was some discussion about causes for the last two Sunday drops.  Someone suggested it was bitpay converting to cash for the weekend sales by their merchants.  ::shrug::

Mornin Ladies.  OMG what did you do to my market?  lol  

Lot's of opportunities now, yes?  Bears get to say 'I told you so'.  Bulls say 'hold on it's about to rebound. . . to da moon'.  Traders say 'Meh.  Buy on dips sell on top'.

I say 'If you gots XBT you be fine.  Get some more'.

What's the consensus now.  Up, down, sidewise, IDFK, or . . .?

btce only has about 8300 coins to sell at these levels.  So, may be at a low point.  For a while?

Okay.  I'm officially sick of Gox.  This last few days have been awful.  I'm thinking of moving to BTC-e.  Anything in particular I should watch out for?

Thanks.  So nothing in particular.  Just the same worries as the others.  

Would that be the Meta Trader 4 that is superior?

No.  Depositing BTC.

Yeah.  If the Sunday sell-off doesn't happen on schedule, this might be a modest rebound.

Note to Spooderman:  Sorry for the trolling, but I respect the judgement of the regulars on this sub forum more than most of the others.  Hence my request for info and opinion.

More opinion.  We prolly ain't done with the dropping prices.  How far is down?  I dunno.

Thought this was aimed at me. 

If any biggie were to make a coin to compete with XBT, I think it would be Google.  That outfit has the tech inhouse and has servers everywhere.  What's to stop them?

I'm not suggesting that they will engage in a crypto currency.  Just that they are the ones that would seem to be in the best position to do so.

Google has already dipped their toes in the money processing arena with their, now defunct, GooglePay.  Seemed like they were trying to take on PayPal and it didn't work out.

I think most of us on this forum believe that the idea of crypto currency(ies) are here to stay.  Not everyone believes that bitcoin, the mining reward, is the answer.  No doubt time and utility will shake the tree until fruit falls to the ground.

I am unable to see anything interesting in the big four exchanges.  Gox and Btc-e are drifting, Stamp showing a few ups and downs, Cny just had some activity, but all of it is on relatively slim volume.  Everyone seems to be waiting.  For *something*.

Think I'll pour a large egg nog, heavy on the nog, and wait with the rest.

Good morning Nemo1024.  Please do some heavy duty buying or selling.  Preferably on BTC-e, but if not then perhaps the others will follow.  Many thanks.

I'm content to wait, but not for ever.  I do some day trading so I need activity before I can pull the trigger.

Holy Shit.  That's a 1949 model.  Great mileage and classy lines.   

Down drifting on slim volumes is said to be bullish.

Don't know, but I'd guess that they aren't closing down.  Too much profit in running a website that collects a percentage from everyone who trades.

Here is what my bot is telling me:

Sell orders = Total: 11,520.73 BTC
Buy orders = Total: 9,705,997.06 USD

I only recently moved to BTC-e after allowing Gox to totally fook up my game plan for the last time.  So far all seems to be fine.

My grandfather gave some good advice:  If you get into a serious discussion/argument with an idiot, bystanders will have a difficult time telling the difference between the two of you. 

We care but we aren't surprised or outraged because it has been analyzed and discussed before.  Those of us here are aware of the potential tipping point of worldwide fiat collapse but we have very little influence on the 'common' populace.

We should be concerned but we have little recourse right now.

In other news:  I'm surprised to see more than just the usual bot trades on MtSux.  Seems a few have posted some reasonable bids and asks.  Wonder what that means?

Testing 1000 again.  Let's see if it holds.

edit:  Many buyers pulled their 10-15 btc orders from the book.

Well 1000 didn't get penetrated this time.  Trading range is too shallow to let me participate, so I bid you goodnight and good luck.

I'm all in favor of IRAs.  I've had one full of fiat since forever.  We had a bad experience when the entire market went south after the 2008 fiasco, but we've been back on track for the last eight months or so.

My IRA earns about twice what a CD earns, so I'm a happy camper.  If you do decide to place some of your coins in the IRA, I would be interested in your experiences.  Perhaps a separate thread tho.

btw:  Glad the forum is back up again.  

Sooooo glad I got out of MtSux.  I feel bad for those who suffered during this latest fiasco, perhaps they will bail now.

He's a good contra indicator though.

They should be waking up about now in the EU.  If they peek at BTC-e they might just jump in.

China is still bearish and who knows what's up with gox.  Stamp and BTC-e have been more or less on the same trend.

It's working fine for me.

Serves them right.  They got the last ounce of blood from me.

Don't know of any bad news.  Perhaps it is as some have implied; the news earlier is taking a while to fit the digestion.

You mean besides the usual MtSux screw up?  And, this forum going offline?  Yeah.  See the above postings about the possibility of placing BTC in an IRA.  

@Davy:  I agree.

Yeah.  China had a pretty robust run up to about 6100 so this retrace to about half of the increase is likely to be profit taking.  Still, that exchange seems really bearish to me.

Well I'm up for the day so I should quit and get some sleep.  Hoping to see 1042 when I get around in the morning.

Well.  Since I'm all in BTC and the market is going the other way. . .

Does everyone here understand that the manipulators are reading every word printed, in permanent cyber ink, in this forum?  Does anyone here not believe that some of the people who post in this sub-forum are in fact the manipulators?

Perhaps it doesn't.

Lotsa red candles on my screens.

Do tell?

From my observations in this thread, Loaded doesn't give many hints beforehand.  So take your best shot and watch.  When he's done, then he sometimes tells us it was him.

As speculation, I agree.  Looking at the order book on gox, if he placed a market buy at 945 for 200 coins he'd clean up.

Not to my knowledge.  But you never know for sure.

Fairly new.  A few days ago Loaded caught a whale manipulator dumping and re-aligned his attention factor.

People on stamp and bct-e are paying attention.  Upward momentum building.  Gox doesn't care.

I don't get a kick out of popcorn so I poured me a hefty shot of 'Old Stump Blower'.

Go stamp, go.

Interesting to watch the buyers adjusting on gox.  The guy who had 150 for sale has decreased it at least three times.

Good point.

I can't speak for the others, but as a day trader what day it is doesn't matter to me.  I trade on swings in price.  If I think there is a profit, in btc, to be made I'll go for it.

The potential fiat on the sidelines keeps the holdings that I have safer seeming.  One never knows for sure, but I believe that bullish in the long term is correct.

More honest than most of the TA crowd.

Well, Loaded, I'll just have to wait until tomorrow to see what havoc you have caused.

Fare well all.  Good trading.

Certainly is speculation.

The buy and hold crowd seem to missed half of the equation.  I see it something like this:

Buy + Hold until {event} then {action} = {result}

If everyone buys and holds then merchants don't get any coins at all.  Someone has to buy and sell or there is no currency.  If you look at the current state of xbt you will likely conclude that it behaves more as a commodity than a currency.  My opinion, your mileage may vary.

It is apparent that our views are different.  My belief on the economy of bitcoin relates to the value of the underlying protocol, not the miners reward that we are trading here.  

I won't change your mind, you won't change mine, so let's agree to hold this type of argument somewhere else besides in the speculation thread.  OK?

Perhaps I will try to codify my beliefs someday.  For now:

Wake up Fool!  There are sheep to shear!

lol   

This moderate recovery may allow an entry point.  Fingers crossed.

I second that emotion.

I wonder if it was short covering that stopped the slide?

MtSux!  The exchange that was.  BTC-e is kicking ass and taking no prisoners.  Hooray for my euro friends.

Yes.  That's one of the shortcomings.  I can live with it, but agree that it could be much better.  I gotta say that I'm much happier with them than the way I got goxxxed the last two times.

lol  I hadn't even noticed that Adam changed the poll.  Again.

I'm looking at the 3 min charts for all 5 of the biggies right now and BTC-e has/had the most volume of all.  It does vary though.  Stamp seems to gather the most fiat for US, and perhaps Canada, but there seems to be a strong European influence on BTC-e that I find encouraging. 

Time of day likely has much to do with it too.

What are you doing still awake?  You were supposed to be in bed hours ago.   

May I suggest a new universal timezone?  Bitcoin time!

Perfect. +1

Well, the position is closed satisfactorily so It's time bid you fare well and good night.  Try not to break my toy while I'm gone.   

Morning everyone.  My bot just woke me up with the sound of a buy order.  What's up?  Oh.  I see.  Okay, I'll wait until it hits 900 then.  lol

Relax.  It's just some of my euro friends taking profit for some short sales.  Things will be back to normal soon.

Single digits by Friday!

Oh, wait.  I'm supposed to be a bull.  

I'm defo interested, but would not trade on MtSux again.  When you get an option for the BTC-e exchange, I'm in.  Well, in for a smallish amount to test.

256.375

I actually don't have as much of a clue as anyone else.  However, watching BTC-e bounce around leads me to the following conclusion:  The current pattern is a damping ringing oscillator with decreasing amplitudes and decreasing frequencies.  Thus we have more down prices coming.

I fervently wish for the bottom to get here and the next up trend get started.  Go XBT.

Good teamwork.  Did they advocate averaging down as well?

Elevate your awareness to unenviable heights.  I guess.  lol

BTC-e (15m on BitcoinWisdom) continues with the downward oscillations.  However, the amplitude is flattening so perhaps a break coming.  Up or down?  Likely down.

Too close to call right now.  Seems to be a battle at 500.

The home team failed to hold 500 on BTC-e again.  More red candles in the offing.

Aaaaand just like that, two green candles.

Boy am I good.   

Nice trip?

Yeah right.  Anything below 850 is cheap.  You told me so.

Back to my chart watching.  Go Loaded.  You and me bro.  To the MOON next hilltop, please.

Place your bets.  Here's mine:

Loaded stopped off in Tokyo for a one-on-one with Mark.  When Mark came down he remembered something like, 'if you don't get your shit together, my friends and I will flush you out to sea'.  (or words to that effect)

He, Mark, then started on a plan to rapidly massage his fractional reserve closer to unity.

Unconfirmed translation:

Loaded is in town.  Buy.

I like triangles too.  It will have to go through 600 and consolidate a while, but this is XBT.

I'd say that the people trading on the other exchanges are just as confused as you are.  They see a move on China and think 'whoa, I'd better buy/sell to keep up'.

I'm in a much better position.  Out of fiat so couldn't buy now if I wanted to.  No worries.  It'll all settle out.

Tell me how you'd do it, please.

Sell signal just triggered on BTC-e.  Be careful.

Thanks.  I can't either.  All of the local coins I've seen are priced too high to transfer and sell.

I like that chart, TERA.

It sounds possible, but too complicated and perhaps a long time frame.

I have wondered about the arbi potential before.

With the China market about the only way I can think of that might work is to have multiple accounts.  Buy XBT on cny, transfer to home wallet, transfer to friends home wallet, transfer to western exchange, sell.  That would still take at least three hours to complete and a complicit (and trustworthy) friend.

edit:  cut out the middle man and it makes more sense.

Wait please.  I missed it among the trash.  Cliff's notes version please.

I agree that this would work, but I don't see it as arbitrage.  More like RMB laundering.

Okay.  I get it now.  Thanks.

I believe it is defo unnatural.  The bot traffic is the key IME.

An oscillation is normal after a largish price move.  The pendulum always swings too far and traders recognize it.  They place orders to take advantage of the folks who overshot the target.  An equilibrium is reached and the general trend of the market usually resumes.

The bot traffic seems to be reinforcing the damping effect and the operators seem to be positioning their orders to take advantage of the unwary.

But what do I know?

Nice explanation macsga!  Hey, I just got in line with the physics guy.  Cool.  I like the string theory stuff.

Back to business:

If my idea is correct, I witnessed one of the operators make ~64k USD in about half an hour.  His bots dampened the oscillations downward then made three buys, igniting green candles for the first time in a while.  When the sheep got on board with the upswing, he sold in four batches at very near the top. 

Who knows.  I love a good conspiracy theory.

Thank you Nan.

So, to follow this a little further:  You need to have a physical account in China.  You would also need a physical account in Japan.  Am I close?

Yes.  And it gets some easier to spot the activities when they repeat so often.

@seriouscoin

Yup.  Analysis is only as good as it works out.  Like most everything in life.  Humans like to see patterns.  When the coin flip comes up heads they think they have the answer and are glad to tell everyone how good their TA is.

edit:  Oops.  Lots of posts between my answer to macsga.  Sorries.

Yeah we were kinda-sorta talking about MtSux.  However, I'm trying to figure out, in my tiny brain, how exactly people think that arbi is being carried out.  Any exchange 'could' work if everything was right.  I just don't see it happening.

It broke up like you wanted, Adam.  Now what?

Thanks for that link.  Yum, python.  I'll check it out later.

Nice.  Hauling the freight.

Yep.  Already did.  Once it got past 600 on gox it is primed to move more upward.  **according to some accounts**

Ya.  We were talking about all of the talk yesterday where some were speculating that someone on China was arbing out to gox.  I couldn't see it then and still don't.

Thanks for you input, you lil knitter you.  

No worries.  Loaded is in-country.  Getting them lined up, no doubt.

Full disclosure:  I'm a hodler.

How many 'Chinatowns' are there in the world outside of China?  How many of those in foreign countries do you suppose have Chinese citizens with family back in China.  How hard would it be to send coins to the family back home?

Sage advice.

Pretty good battle going on at Mtsux between 600 and 625.  I think we need to hold at or above 600 for a while before we can resume the climb.

China seems to have other ideas.

It's getting late at my house.  Fare well and good trading to you all.

Yay for the home team.  Push em up.  Push em up.  Waaay up.  Go team.

Now that's the sort of analysis that I pay my subscription for.

Well done.

Two things:
1.  I surprised at the 24 hour volume on BTC-e.  Nice.
2.  I'm pleased that gox didn't level off in the 650-675 range.

Go team.

That actually makes a good deal of sense.  There were some excited posts the other day about the huge volume of XBT transferring in the blockchain.  Many speculated that it was arbi, but transfer to Chinese wallets seems to be more realistic.

Well so much for watching cny.  4000 +

Heh.  BTC-e and MtSux say 'hell yeah, let's go'.  Stamp says 'meh.  Maybe'.

If you hurry you can buy back with only a fractional loss.

wtf?  Stamp is not buying it at all.

No regrets is a good feeling.  I'm proud of you.  You is supposed to hodl.

Pro politics.   

When uncertain. .. do nothing.

Big dump on cny if anyone is interested.

I'm long-term bullish.  But I trade the swings, so not too concerned with predicting a top or bottom.  The market decides which way it goes and I can't affect that.

Damn nan.  I didn't know I had the web cam on.   

Party pooper.

This rally has more legs than I expected.  Not displeased, just mildly surprised.  The western exchanges seem want to go up rather badly.  We'll see.

I can't speak for everyone, of course, but I don't go to bed with fiat on the exchange.

TERA, if your chart was your prediction, MtSux has breached 759 three times.  Do you leave some wiggle room in there?

Is that total for shorts?

So, what's going on now?  MtSux and Stamp drifting on small volumes while BTC-e rising on moderate volume.  No weekend dump so. . . short covering?  Bears exhausted from the wait?  Boredom?  Inquiring minds and all that.

Nice layout.

I'm pleased to see the western exchanges ignoring china for a change.  Perhaps the traders are weening off of that tit.

First:  Seasons Greetings to all.

Next:  Walsoraj, you surprised me.  I believe that is the most rational post I've read from you.  If the events you mention come to pass, do you have a guess as to the time frame?

And:  Are traders still actively watching btcChina for movement or is it that so many bots have been programmed to react to changes in that market?  A better way of asking that question is:  Do you think that the Cny market is the driver for the western exchanges?

For many reasons I have believed that you were one of the few who actually were in touch with the markets.

Meditation is good.  Especially at this time of the traditional year.  Taking the time to mentally review the results of prior activities can lead to better results going forward.  Heavy emphasis on the word 'can'. 

Some people are wired to blame failures on external forces and cannot acknowledge that individual choice is the ultimate arbiter.

Hope you enjoy the book.

As a dual-use bitcoiner, I have mixed emotions about the news/fud about the Chinese markets.  From the mining income perspective, I'd like to see stability with modest growth and not the wildly unpredictable changes we've experienced lately.  From a day trader perspective, I have to have swings to trade.

I like to view the colorful graphs that many of you produce.  As a card-carrying member of the human race, I like to form patterns that may, or may not, contain information that is useful.  

I don't envy you long-term traders.  I can't imagine trying to get a useful jump on the long term trends.  That sort of mental gymnastics would soon drive me to drinking.

I think that the next few months will offer folks like us many more opportunities.

Thank you Bitcoiners.  Short term rising trend with some peaks and valleys.

Interesting thing on the 15 min BTC-e chart on Wisdom:  the up slopes are taking much longer to peak than the drops do to hit the valleys.  Bullish?  I think so.

Anything in particular that makes you believe that?  Anything you would care to share?

I can accept those statements.  The bigger question remains:  Do we ever know the reasons until too late?

Thanks.

So, if my fading memory is close to correct, the summer crash was 'caused' by the MtSux debacle and the recent crash was because the cny market was 'supposed' to be dead in the water.

I'm prolly wrong but the way I see it is that the market, you and I and all the others, was ready for a correction and the events were right there to allow it to happen.

XBT seems to run more on emotions than on fundamentals.  If that is true then perhaps there is a need for the price to go higher now.  ::shrug::

The end of one trend is the beginning of another.  Be prepared with your plan (and backup plan B).

I'm not the luckiest guy around, so I have to take my time and try to learn not to get burned too badly.  I use stop loss points to prevent serious hurts, others do not.

The thing is, if you listen to the chatter here it will make matters worse instead of better.  It took me about four months of lurking to identify who I thought were the real bulls and bears.  Then it has taken me another 3 or 4 to identify those who intentionally spout dis-information, mis-information, and then there are the out-liars to contend with.

If you are new to any type of trading, just take baby steps and make a plan that you can stick to.  Perhaps it would be best not to put all of your fiat on an exchange right away.

Regardless of the dogma spouted here about 'buy and hold', you can't increase your holdings without risk.  Buy and hold is good if you don't care about an increase.  Trading may let you increase your holdings without putting more fiat at risk.

On the other hand, what the hell to I know.  I'm just a troll with an internet connection.

I urge caution.  The obvious may be a sham.

That gives you a leg up on most of the traders on here.


It will stop when we, the market, discover the price of the miners reward (what we are trading) that will allow the most efficient miners to continue to support the blockchain.  I suspect that the price will move beyond the realistic level, perhaps many times, and like the pendulum it will fall back too far.  Where is the realistic price level for the XBT?  No one knows.

The rest of the story is yet to be written.

That reminds me to ask:  What does China know that we do not?

Likely to be true.

I've lived in what used to be called 'the Far East' and visited Hong Kong and some of the other places, including what was once called 'IndoChina'.  At the risk of painting a very large portion of our planetary populace with an overly large brush, most of the Asians I have had contact with love to gamble.

BTC is a fun way for them to gamble.

Get off of MtSux before it bites you.  BTC-e is at 757 right now.

At 0300 in your PJ's?

Where do they get the prices for quotes?

Yay Adam.  Single digits by Friday!

Which reminds me, where are the resident bears when we need them.

Anyone up for a huge sell off on Sunday?

You know I'm a bull, but I tend to agree with you.  At least short-term.

FLASH!  Bull and Bear agree.  Huge dump coming.  Sell now.

Yes.

lol  Adam is getting ready to gut some pigs.

The consolidation may have occurred in the 650-700 range.

Keep in mind that many of the US traders are on holiday, so not sure if what we are seeing will last.

Incoming!

I gave up serious consideration of the stochRSI after the indicator on 12-1 said that it was a good time to buy when the price on Stamp was 1000.

No idea but I noticed yesterday that it was absent.

You can say that about all TA and not be wrong.

Pardon me for interrupting, but I want to publicly thank you both for your contributions to my bitcoin education.

Now, then, one of you sell and the other buy.  This flat-lined market gives me the jitters.

edit:  Hey, it worked.  A spike.  Small but defo better than the last few hours.

The proof is in:  My short term TA is OTL.  I'm beginning to think I could do just as well with chicken entrails mixed with some green tea leaves (Chinese of course) and limp noodles (again Chinese) spread on a ouija board.  Seeing the patterns presented by past actions is completely different from what someone else thinks they see.  Bah.

tl;dr  I'm starting to get nervous again.  Went long at 688 a while back and that may have been a mistake.

Yup.  Gox, BTC-e, and Huobi show nice green candles and Stamp says 'Meh'.

No, I'm not nervous about my position.  I'm OK with small gains/losses.  I'm nervous about the 'feeling', something just doesn't seem right.  I had a similar feeling after the ATH when we fell back to the 1k level.  As long as I have XBT I'm all right.

I resolved part of the situation by selling half.  But I'm still a long-term bull.

If you believe that some of the regulars here have deep enough pockets to accomplish that feat (I do believe that) it would be something worth seeing.

I don't have the means to do so.  Ya, I could put up a candle but it wouldn't last.

Adjusted your comment.

Interesting discussions these last few hours.

Let me ask you, who are smarter than I, what do you think would be the effect on the western markets if, say Huobi, crashed to zero in the next 24 hours?

I love predictions!

Would you please define 'consolidate'?

That's as reasonable as any other explanation I can think of.  Someone up-thread, like maybe 20 pages ago, said something to the effect of 'the weak hands are out of the market.  The potential buyers are waiting for lower prices.  The potential sellers are waiting for higher prices'.  If true, then that would add to the seeming stability.

That pretty well agrees with my estimation of the situation too.  It may well be that the CNY situation has been factored in.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I have noticed that MtSux is the seeming leader in the minute movements I've seen in the last few hours.  Huobi is just wandering sidewise.  Of course the majority of their traders are sleeping now.

I think I'll just blow it off tonite and try again tomorrow.

News Flash!  This just in....aminorex, a reliable news source, has confirmed that the EU will begin requiring Bitcoin address registration at a chartered financial institution.  This change will take effect immediately.  Violators will be persecuted.

Sub-headline:  This station has learned that the Bitcoin Foundation intends to file suit in International courts over the alleged registration requirements by the EU.  theymos is mis-quoted as saying 'This is BS.  We cannot allow them to interfere with the progress of the crypto currency world'.

Stay tuned folks, the end of the world as we know it may soon be at hand.

Single digits by Friday!

^^  That's one of the reasons I use BTC-e and I live in the US.

With all of the 'news' of huge money ready to come on the exchanges comes a small tidbit that many will find bearish:  

http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/01/why-i-lost-faith-in-bitcoin-as-a-money-transfer-protocol/

This will only get worse as the delayed asics hit the miners shelves this month and through May.

I don't have anything against BTCguild.  I have had my miners pointed at them a few times and so far as I can determine everything works.

I changed to Bitparking so I could get the shitcoins along with my btc.  Who knows?  One of them might buy me a hamburger some day.

The luck factor is crazy.  One period I can run for 232 hours without any income.  The next thing you know you catch a block in 8 minutes.  The gurus say that it all evens out in the long-run.  ::shrug::

That ought to get their attention.  lol

Seriously tho, I'm fairly certain that BTC Guild has security in place to prevent a ddos, or other nefarious actions, from shutting the pool down.  I'm equally certain that eleuthria would not want to specify what those precautions are.  A shut down of a major pool would be a serious problem.  Let's hope it doesn't happen.

What worries me more is the prospect of a multiplication of transactions hitting the blockchain in a short period of time.  I've heard that there are ongoing discussions of increasing the carrying capacity.  I fervently hope that improvements come about before some new social product comes on the scene where 750k kids try to buy .0025 BTC to purchase the new gadget.  750k x 2= 1.5 mil transactions.  Don't think we can handle that volume now.

Meanwhile...  MtSux and BTC-e are declining while Stamp doesn't care.

Nah.  About that time the uberbulls will figger out that Fortress will be buying off the network.  Like from loaded or some such.  The other financial geniuses will still be sitting on their funds waiting for the drop.

I already sold some more. 

Rumor that they are starting a fund.

Don't have a link handy but I think they are gonna buy btc and hold.

Ya.  I think the rumor has been bought.

lol.  I know you say that as a joke, but there are many who hang out here that will be dismayed.

I can't see a great influx of $ hitting the markets.  Ya, there is sure to be some new money coming in.  There always is.  But what reason would a deep-pockets wall streeter have for pouring in $100k?

The markets we have now don't have the liquidity to handle trading like that.  Well, that's my feeling.  There may be the offsetting amounts that I don't have a clue about.  Time will tell.

Yes.  I was thinking more on the lines of 100-200 of the 100K guys getting in about the same time.  The lights on MtSux would be rainbow colored.

I like that number a lot.

Deeper thoughts please.  What percentage of the wall street money will be bought as a long-term investment and what will be placed on an exchange for trading?

Pretty lines!

I'm a long-term bull as well.  I'm just having trouble visualizing how the volume will be there to satisfy those numbers.  There will have to be a lot of days destroyed coming up.

Which brings up a question.  How are the ATM's funded?  Off exchange or what?

Please, don't misunderstand my posts as trying to be antagonistic, not that you were.  I'm merely trying to see how the long-term puzzle is shaped.  Ok?

So, for now Bitstamp will fund the ATM's.  Once the XBT is withdrawn from stamp, presumably so the ATM customer can purchase goods and services in the real world, where do the replacement coins come from?  If the consumer holds off on her purchase for, say two weeks, then those coins are out of circulation and unavailable for trading.  If she makes her purchase fairly immediately, then we presume that the merchant will convert them back to fiat as quickly as is possible.  Net result = ~0

The total number of XBT is fixed.  The well containing that total is only so deep.  The bottom layers are very likely walled off by the 'Founding Fathers'. 

The mid layers are the murky waters.  Whether, or when, they will be converted to fiat is uncertain.  Those who sold some near the ATH don't have much incentive to convert their remainder.

The top layer of the well has the XBT on the exchanges.  Either trading now or available within moments.  I don't have a clue as to the total available on all of the exchanges combined, but it doesn't seem that there are enough to support a supposed mass entrance of wealthy traders eager to buy up the market.   

Single digits by Friday.

Thanks for that.


Ya, I was one of the 40 for quite a while.  I admit to being intimidated by some of the posters, but it seems to have been worthwhile.

So, my question remains.  Where will all the coins come from to support a huge increase in the price?

Or, will it be the case of many dollars chasing smaller volumes of coins all the way to the moon?

Can you imagine the market price going to 10k USD on 1k per day of volume?

We could ask (beg?) some of the large holders to tell us at what level they would be willing to part with, say 50k, coins.

Quoting myself here to point out how silly that last sentence is.

For you 40 who are lurking:  there's little doubt that massive amounts of fiat could hit the exchanges within the next 12 months.  Whether and when is up for debate.

If you perceive that my thoughts are flapping around like a pennant on a very tall flagstaff ... you would be correct.

What would you consider significant, seleme?

lol  "lēmniscātus" one of my lost memories.  Well done.

100% agree with that.  But that isn't support.  If nobody sells we don't have a market.

Nice market actions. 

lol @ china syndrome.

There still is that chance.  Depends on whose kung fu that you listen to.

Ya.  The weekend should be fun.

Good luck with your tooth.

Been watching the bots playing on BTC-e when suddenly some dude puts up a mini ask wall at 92.

edit:  the wall was at 780 for 92 coins and he's sold 24 already.

Yeah.  Adam has trouble with speeling.

Looks like the market is going to go east for a while.  May pick up when EU wakes.

^^ this.smart(trade.plan)

Not always.  Some of the EU traders that hang out here are pretty smart traders.  They will have positions to adjust, shorts to cover, new positions to take.  It all depends on what they want to do with what the market market allows.

Our expenses are less than our income.  The value builds.  We hold our mined coins.  We trade with purchased coins.  

The large, as in huge, mining farms must sell some coins to pay their huge electricity bills and they all have hosting fees and most have wages to pay.  They are bulls and they must sell some to stay in business.

Methinks you won't need your alarm set tonight.  Get some rest.  The weekend may see a chance to buy lower.  Or it might provide a nice sell point.

Ya.  I'm 50-50 so let her rip!

Humans are the strangest critters on this planet.

Depending on which way their bias runs, the emotions take hold and the result is unpredictable.  At least as far as I can determine.

I suppose that the sheep syndrome, fear of being left behind, causes most of the action on our exchanges.  Rational or not.

You draw nice charts pdawg.  Do you trade on MtSux or just use them for illustration?

I take that as a rather bullish statement.  Do you have any particulars that you would share here?

DCA means...?

Sounds reasonable.  Thanks.

Thanks for that.  One of the most reasonable and non-flaming posts on this troll box sub-forum.  Hats off!

Not me, but I would be interested in comments from the other side of the aisle.

Heh.  I should have qualified my statement.  I don't trade on MtSux any more, so it's possible on that exchange, but not likely on BTC-e.

I would argue that Bitstamp has had more volume than gox lately.

Well, you make a good point.  I don't pay any attention to the Chinese markets, but I do watch for trends forming on gox and stamp.  My trade signals, though, are limited to BTC-e.

You could very well be right.  However, if r/bitcoin jumps on another hot rumor it could just as easily, perhaps more easily, go down.

Not afraid at all.  I'm uncertain of the short term direction, so 50-50.  

One must consider the effect that the FUD merchants can have on the newly initiated members of the 'trade bitcoins' population.

FUD defined:
1.  Fear, Uncertainity, Doubt.
2.  F'd Up Data
Your choice.

The fundamentals all point to long term increases.  My cold storage wallet believes that to be true.  My trading account is a different story.

Perhaps I'm too conservative in my trading account.  ::shrug::

edit:  time out.  -e is on the move.

You might want to give BTC-e a try.  The fee structure is decent and they haven't had a lag longer than ~20 seconds since I switched in early Dec. unlike MtSux.

My suggestion is to open an account and transfer BTC, not fiat.  Trading from the web page gets tiresome because of the need to refresh often, but I've found that the QtBitcoin Trader works extremely well.

Depending on your circumstances, you may want to try it out with fractional coins.  Also, I don't leave substantial amounts on the exchange.  As with your initial deposit, withdraw in BTC.  Keep the volumes of transfers on the smallish side and you have no worries.

Caveat:  Your mileage may vary and batteries are not included.

Yes, and I'm surprised at the selling pressure at these levels.  Profit taking, or fear?

Now, here’s a deadly combination:  nicotine, caffeine, and codeine with a chaser of Air Wick^TM. 

You trade btc like the boss fiend, then fall into a coma where you are subjected to an endlessly looping dream where dodgy-coin is the only remaining crypto.   The value rises to $1M, then falls to 300k but you can’t trade it at all.

Dat volume on -e.

Wowzer!

I'm not one to make predictions often (aside from the occasional snide trolling) for very good reasons, but looking at the 1 day BTC-e makes me wonder what we're in for. 

It looks to me like it will take some stupendous good news to keep the MACD from crossing in the next couple of weeks.  That would appear bearish to me.

Disclosure:  My trading account is 50-50.

Looks like my 714 order might get filled.  BTC-e

Attention plz.  The current flash crash has been cancelled due to lack of interest.  Back to work, you  clods.

Steady as she goes, skipper.

A guy can try, right?

That'd make at least two of us.

What we call this ‘market’ really is interesting.  For reference:  I have a small mining operation, I purchased for a cold wallet in Sept at 122, and I day trade on BTC-e.

What we are trading, and holding, is the reward paid to the miners for creating and maintaining the blockchain.  (BTW, in my books, holding is a form of speculation.)  We do not buy, nor earn, anything like a share of bitcoin.  We buy and trade what the miner sold to pay his bills or to profit from.

There is a whale of a lot of comment about this mining reward becoming the dominant currency of some future world.  I cannot believe that, for many reasons.

What I can believe is that XBT will be used for quick, cheap, money transfer; that the blockchain can, and likely will, be used for permanent record keeping; and that the idea behind bitcoin will allow some bright people to create some never before thought of – highly useful – applications that will revolutionize monetary practices.

Some merchants will embrace XBT with good reason.  Others will not see a use for it.  Some governments will ignore XBT; others will see it as a threat to their monopoly and restrict it.  Bankers will not care.  Central banks will not care.  Big businesses will not care (they rely on banks for funding and the price of such is built into the product).

If there aren’t significant developments, applications that depend on the blockchain (and hence the miners), say in the next 12 months, then XBT will likely be viewed as a fad.  These significant developments need to be something that will rock the world much like the internet did.  Then the price of XBT will match the needs of the most efficient miners who will keep the blockchain intact. 

Until then, we play footsie with the price of the miner’s efforts.

/end Saturday boredom thoughts

Now, you know that I'm a nay-sayer on a lot of the topics that come up in this subforum, so to be consistent ... I don't think that bitcoin dies.  It could get very sick and fall prey to panic so that it seems on the verge of death, but not complete oblivion.

There is value to the protocol and the blockchain.  There has to be value for the miners to continue.  Have more faith, but don't count on untold riches either.

Interesting that most seem to think that the Chinese are through with XBT.

'Most' of the fud merchants who should know better, but continue to sound convincing.

I completely agree with your summation of the Real China.

Speaking of stabbing people, which we weren't, what ever happened to the gazillion wall street bucks that were waiting to pour onto the exchanges after Jan 1?

lol

Nah. Back in December all the rage was to talk about all the wall street money that was going into the exchanges.

The rest of us are mostly shite.

Fiat ready.  How low is low?

Yup.  Speaking only of BTC-e, the bids and asks seem healthy enough for now.  Perhaps an uptick coming.

$30 uptick incoming.  How soon is the question.

$30 uptick incoming!  (hey it worked before so why not)

Ok, so I was unwired for a few hours and what do I find?  Someone failed to let it fall to my 715 buy.  Please pay more attention.

On a more satisfying note, nice to see some of the old names show up here and post a few times.  Glad to see you.  Post more.  Buy XBT, please.

Buy levels at 715, 650, and 510 are ready.  Up is fine too.

Lots of falling daggers on BTC-e

Difficult to say atm.  Stamp and BTC-e are sloping down.  Don't pay any attention to MtSux or Hooboy, so don't know what to say about them.

BTC-e trying to recover.

Please, please, stop mentioning his username.  If you don't stop then Rictus Risto will surely denounce his vow not to return to this troll box until the price reaches 500.

/public service announcement

In another area of newses:  The 12 hour, 1 day, and 3 day moving averages (BTC-e) have all crossed.  I’m practically ignorant of the methods for analysis of TA, but this doesn’t look good to me.

Is this a warning from the bitcoin gods or should it be dismissed as a reading of tea leaves and chicken entrails?

And... XBT falls four dollars.  Proof that we will see single digits in 2011!

wtf is this all about?

Okay then.  The usual stuff.  Nothing to get all worked up about.  Yay Bitcoin!

Oh goodie.  Was this announced and I missed it?  Fud merchants are a dime a dozen here.  If you want to graduate to the upper class, study up on Proudhon's techniques.


Anyone who believes any part of what is posted in this sub-forum knows what's best.  Right?



In other views:  The action on BTC-e is not driven by bots this time.  At least it doesn't appear to be.  Some interesting market orders hitting when things try to calm down a bit.

China doesn't appear to be asleep now.  At least not on Hooboy.

Click bait.

Must be priced in already.

I confess.  I haven't paid much attention to MtSux for a while, but has that ~$9 spread been the norm lately?

For that matter, they may have trouble regaining any that they lost.  People don't like change.  If they wanted to trade and moved to a different exchange, they are not too likely to change back (absent some nice incentive).

Sorry.  Wasn't very clear was I?  Meant to say that the bid/ask spread was ~9 bucks and hadn't noticed it for a while.  So ... has it been that much of a spread for a while?

edit:  I see it is about 2 bucks now.

edit 2: now its at 5 bucks.  wtf?

lol  Of course, you're right.  Soooo glad I got goxed for the last time back in November.

Nice little 150 coin bid wall just hit on BTC-e.

(I'm just talking to myself, right?)

And just as fast it's gone.

(Yes, you are.  Now shurrup.)

Watching the wall actions on gox.  lol

Like a series of earthquakes.

Very likely.

What's your opinion on the outcome with gox?  Do you think he is smart enough to sell the exchange to someone who would run it right?  Is there someone who would take the job on?

No chance to get any of that back, right?

That sux.

I remember you mentioning something about this before.  So, it's likely that he rolled over on some of the, say, SR bunch?  Maybe on DPR?

Well, it is bad for all of you who got scammed.  But I have faith that he will get what is coming to him in the end.  If nothing else, he'll have the rest of his life to regret what he did.

Holy crap! 870 coins sold on Stamp in seconds.  WTF?

So, on reading the posts for the last few days, I’m left wondering a few things.  I’m not sure that I’m capable of reaching valid conclusions for the questions that I have. 

The good news surrounding bitcoin does not seem to advance the price.  Any hint of bad news, FUD, seems to drop the price temporarily.  Why?

If we disregard MtSux, which seems to be forgone, we are left with a few western exchanges and a group of Chinese exchanges.  The China exchanges have been dead since before the ‘holidays’ and the price is mostly flat on the other exchanges.  Does this indicate that the Chinese exchanges are the driver for price discovery?

Bitstamp and BTC-e are effectively flat lined.  When the bid or ask walls reach some level, an order hits and the price moves.  Then a series of orders arrive which brings the price back to the previous level.  Can we assume that intentional balancing forces are at work here?
1.    If it is intentional balancing, is this the work of a few individuals acting independently or is this the work of a group acting in concert?
2.   For what purpose?

From a trading perspective, it seems that we can’t rely on ‘good news’ as a place to buy the rumor and then sell the fact.  The converse does seem to be working. Sell the fud and then buy the facts.  Why are things about bitcoin price so negative lately?

So many questions and few answers that don’t require a tinfoil hat to answer.

/random thoughts on a snowy day with little trade opportunities.

So much for the flat lines.   

Looks like Stamp led this latest dip:  at 1716 local time
Stamp vol = 625
BTC-e vol = 26
HooBoy vol = 1.5

Down pressure.

Hmmm.  Wonder if this will get low enough to trigger my 715 buy?

[checks]  Yep.  Still there.  A little moldy, but there.

I thought that Loaded made a special trip just to 'fix' the Chinese markets.

Have the leveraged shortlers gotten their margin calls yet?

edit:  Now, that's just plain dumb.  Doh!

This may suffice until you make other arrangements:

http://hypron.net/bitcoinwisdom.html

Complements of one of the senior members here.  

Bridge to Damage Control:  We are seeing a life support leak in the Bitcoin locker.  Assign a patch crew ASAP.  We cannot let this go below 700 or we risk an abandon ship.  This is no drill.  Repeat, this is no drill!

^^  Not really jumpy.  Just reading my mining income book.  Looks decent at 700.  Not so good at much below that.

I'm in fairly decent shape other than the mining enterprise.  I'm fairly certain (P= 0.99) that my initial buy-in is safe at 122.  My trading account is full fiat atm.  But I haven't had the funds to keep up my percentage of the mining spectrum.  I have more equipment on order, but you know, 'delays' and the difficulty is what's really going to the moon.

I know what you mean.  I have three limit orders placed, but don't really expect them to fill.

Not so much underwater as close to wondering if things will work out.  I bought Asic usb sticks.  Total for 15 units = $260.91 for 6.14 ghs or 42.43 per gig.

On order = CoinCraft A1 ASIC.  'They' say it should be shipping any day now.  A benefit, they say, is an increase in hashing power to make up for being two months late.   

The straw that is getting hard to carry is the increase in difficulty coupled with the massive increase in equipment that has gone live.  The difficulty is the same for all of us, but the deep pockets guys are hitting the streets running.

Right now, the variance at my selected pool is, to use a vulgar expression, the shits.

I was inclined to think the Russia scare was FUD.  Watching BTC-e now I'm not so sure.  A lot of pressure there.

I don't see much support until 650.

Thanks for the link. 

So, it seems not to be FUD.  Does the Russian state have the means to monitor all of the computers in that country?  Do they know who owns XBT?  Are the Russian bitcoiners ignorant about transfers and such?

Just wondering.

At the ready, General.

Seriously, if your country, (Canada yes?) were to ban XBT would you panic and sell your stash?  I would not if the US did that and I suspect most of those in this sub-forum feel the same.

So, to some extent at least, it is panic fud.  Most of the large Russian holders will hodl.

I feel the same way about this thread, and honesty pays off in the end.

The revised estimate was 1,000 gh/s, but there is a clause to increase the output with each two weeks (I think I remember that correctly) of incremental lateness.   If the price stays up for a while I might get close to break even.  Maybe.

My pleasure.

Fear, Uncertainity, Doubt.

There has been a build up of new XBT owners.  They thought it was gonna go to 1500 within the month.  Russia is banning bitcoin.  Ergo.  Panic.

Do we ever really know why things happen?

Same on BTC-e.  Wonder what the Huoboi guys are thinking?

300 coin buy wall at 700 on BTC-e.  Wonder if he can stem the tide.

edit:  Nope.  Sucked him dry.

Looks like testing 650 soonish.

Much more support at 700 than I thought.  What now?

Yup.  Stamp is having a hard time staying below MtSux.

Oh no!  That means Risto will be back here crowing his head off.

Isn't it funny that the engine at MtSux hasn't crashed this time.

What does that mean TERA?

Aha.  Thanks.

Only legit TA since last week ^^

Single Digits By Friday!  Wait...that was yesterday, right?

Dear rational posters,  the subject of XBT rise and fall has been precluded by various assessments of the FUD potential to line the pockets of the Winklevi twins.  The most recent news of which is that they, the twins, have been the masterminds behind MtSux for eva!

They, it is revealed, are the real Illuminati behind all of Bitcoin! 

That is all.  You may resume your original position. 

To the moon or to the basement.  Keep us not in suspense.  Please.

I actually like the emotions that the above image evokes regarding XBT and the presumed downfall of MtSux.  Beached whales on the unforgiving sands of the Gox shore.

Emotions are rarely involved with fact, but nonetheless....

Yes we do.  But I, for one, don't get all heated up by $20 peak-to-peak swings.  Patience is a virtue that makes good things happen.

Absolutely agree with that.

Us oldsters need to stick together.  If you gorra post images, then you gunna need to use the BB codes.  Like this [ and that ].

Been away from the interwebs for a while and I'm surprised to find practically no change.

BTC-e seems to be miming MtSux while Stamp is more conservative.  Trading ranges on these two are hanging in at ~25 peak-to-peak.  No further FUD about gox, so we are just circling the wagons.

Sigh.  So much wasted time on such a worthless exchange.

What's the latest consensus?  Up, down, sidewise, or ? 

I don't trade on Stamp.  My orders are on BTC-e.

Looks like we go down a ways.

Another hour at the trading rate evident now and you'll see the 4450 go by fairly fast.

While I tend to agree with you here, one must not dismiss the herd mentality.  Even semi-rational nutcases can get caught up in the moment.

I don't see anything out of the ordinary going on right now.  The two western exchanges are trading in their, roughly, $25 channel.  They each reacted to the latest drop on the dead exchange and then promptly started back up.

Keep a steady hand on the tiller, lad.  We'll weather this storm if you keep her nose into the wind.

Perhaps.  However one shouldn't count out the potential for manipulators to drive the price down short term.  I doubt it would last for long, and the weaker hands will no doubt bail out quickest, so it may be a blessing in disguise.

Yes.  The problem being the timing of the purchase.  Do you wait until you 'think' the bottom is in?  Or do you speculate that it has fallen enough for your tastes?  It seems that noticeable dips are most noticeable in hindsight.

Would you care speculate on the purpose of these transactions?

BTW, I do appreciate your posts.

Yup.  475 coins gone in a flash.

Go here, Jorge:  http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg2ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Just below the chart is a link that says 'load raw data'.  If you select the time period you are interested in, it will give you a detailed listing that is suitable for loading into excel.

Now they get to really panic.  MtSux is not responding.   

MtSux going down the drain.

Hi gang.  Are we having fun yet?

That crazy HuBoy exchange is up late and trading like a boss.  What's up with that?

Looks like MtSux is in DDOS mode again.

Was watching from Wisdom and noticed that gox went into slow mode.  Then the interval went from, say 15 seconds, to 45 and then to 1 min 8 seconds.  Unless BitcoinWisdom is having problems, then gox is being tested again.

I believe that Jorge is on the right track with his analysis of the Chinese bitcoin markets.  Not sure if the Chinese Slumber pattern is going to point us in the right direction, but time will tell.

If what Jorge conjectures about the influence of the Chinese markets on the global price of XBT is correct, then I should be paying much more attention to their market moves.  I only occasionally look at the Huoboi market, and have no entry point to the Chinese troll boxes (if any exist), so I’m a little lost.  I did look at the Chinese sub-forum here, lol.  Lotsa luck there OG! 

Are there any regulars here who read the Chinese forum?  If you are one, would you care to post updates for us?

As an aside:  If someone with my brain power just now figured this out, then regular brains got it at least two months ago, the smart ones had it nailed at least six months ago, and the movers/shakers got it over a year ago.  Sigh. 

So not fast.  Much no good.  Such wow not.  And other stupid ways to say what a dipshit I am.

Doubt it makes much difference now.

lol.  Mine is printed on celluloid, or Parkesine if you prefer.

Now there is a thought that is pregnant with possibilities!

Chinese markets influence the global price; Huobi bots track and trade based on a failing exchange.  Boy oh boy.  What a fix we're in.

Another indication that the Chinese are the market movers.  Thanks, Jorge.

edit:  When they are awake.   

+1

Just to be argumentative...what does the exchange market have to do with the investment world?

And someone else won't let it get much over 510.

Good points traderCJ.

The fact is that everyone who trades as little as one satoshi is speculating about the future price of the miners reward.

I'm long-term bullish, short-term bearish, and completely mercenary.

I don't think I've ever hit the bottom or the top.  Close counts.

Not sure.  Too many conflicting opinions for me to make sense of.  I'm just watching that 1600 bid wall at 501 getting slowly eaten up.  If it goes away there doesn't seem to be much support which to my mind means some more down pressure.

Now we go down a ways.

Fear?  Insecurity?  Who knows.

You've been through this before, Shrooms.  You know this is only temporary.

Could be that a great majority of the newcomers were expecting great gains in short time periods.

I'm frankly surprised at the buying going on over at MtSux.  Someone believes!

Now, I like a good conspiracy theory as well as anyone, but that whale who sold 1600 coins on Gox for 501 was not in on it.

Yes, I'm sure that there is/was inside information.  There almost always is.  But I don't think that can account for all of the fear selling.

BTC-e back online.  

edit:  Beat me to it.  lol

Ya.  I got goxxed for the last time in early December.   

OOOOH!  That bitcoinbaby.  

Seriously, we all know what's going on in our world.  The skryptkiddies and the advantage players are having a ball.  We suffer the consequences.  It will all work out.

In other news:  The flash fizzled out.  Prices are back up to about where they were.  Panic has subsided.  I saw 500 briefly.  My exchange of choice is back online.  I think I'll get some shuteye.  Have fun!

BitcoinWisdom is back up if anyone is interested.

+1

Was about to wear out the f5 key on my laptop.  

Well shat.  BTC-e api is down.  Crapoola.

Yep.  OOOPSIE.  My point was eight and I rolled a seven.  Next time it was snake eyes.  lol

Hmmm.  BTC-e back up.  My 500 bid might get filled tonight.

You could be right.

Seems to be a lot of sell pressure on the western exchanges.

Nope.  Just an observation.  Cheap is relative.

Agreed.  And that's one reason for the 500 bid.  Another is that I believe it will rise above that level.  If we go into an extended period of doldrums, all bets are off.

You should read some of the horror stories about MtSux.  Stamp or BTC-e are much better choices in my estimation.

I can't argue with what billyjoe said, but gox had mucho problems way before this latest fiasco.

What?  MtSux not dead yet.    Crazy damn market.

Stamp and BTC-e flatlined.  Something in the wind?

Well, well.  This is the exact opposite of what I expected to see.

I was all set to enjoy a Sunday rally.  ::shrug:: bitcoin!

History in the making.  Villainy, but still history.

When does the bleeding stop?

^^ Ya.  Something really not right about this whole thing.

Question for you old timers:  Is Mark capable of shitting on his customers and XBT at the same time?

I've been trying to apply some logic to this situation and am not able to reach a rational solution except that MtSux is truly insolvent and a select few insiders know it.

I have no clue what-so-ever.

Good point.  So, then no rationale.  Just emotions?