Gox is not executing any of my orders, even now. I have a 1 BTC test buy in and...nothing. UPDATE Just fell through my bid price and...still nothing.

me too! my order still hasn't been filled. anyone else still not able to trade?

Just placed a market order that filled. Limit order still nuttin.

What happened to the usual weekend dip? I tried to day trade it and now I'm stuck in worthless depreciating fiat. Good thing it was only one coin, one I bought for $17.00  ;-)

I guess I'm too much of a contrarian. I bought that coin on the way down from $31 in 2011 (along with a few others). I was selling the whole ramp up from $350 to $1200 and buying back on the way down. My biggest mistake was taking my profits in fiat instead of BTC. Stupid dollars. What am I supposed to do with those? Wipe my butt?

We've never had a double top in bitcoin either. Still, if you think the intervals between rallies is roughly correlated with the proportional size of the rally, then 3 months is what I put the next ATH at. Yet, and I know this sounds crazy, what if the double top was just a bear trap and the real rally is just getting started? The FED and the fractional reserve system is creating about 800 billion $/month and some of that will find it's way into bitcoin. and that's just the U.S.- every central bank is printing like mad now. Much less than 1% of that new (counterfeit) fiat would double the BTC market cap in one month.

Keep me posted on this. I thought the MTGOX black hole was just for us yanks. How does that place still operate? Been waiting on my wire xfer since Nov 11. got an email a week ago from tech support telling me they don't even have an ETA for it yet. Magical Tux is letting a billion dollar opportunity bleed market share like a hemophiliac gargling razorblades.

I really don't understand the complaints about market manipulation. Price artificially low? buy. Price will always return to fair market value eventually. Price artificially high? sell or sell short. It's really hard to manipulate prices on a dozen exchanges at once.  It's more likely some pussy losing his nerve or just looking to buy back in lower and increase his holdings. I will tell you this: I made it through two crashes without selling a single bitcoin and this time if it crashes again, I'm buying more. follow the trend and you fall off the cliff with the rest of the lemmings. and you make BTC more volatile and less useful. I bet against the trend and profit from reducing volatility.

exactly like gold and silver. they will hit market value, but probably never again as the basis for the world's reserve currency. I think of gold as analog bitcoin now.

ummm, it's 2 to 3 months and losing 30% buy transferring your coins to another exchange or losing 30% buy having your money stuck in depreciating fiat instead of BTC is the same loss. That's assuming you EVER get the funds, something I'm starting to doubt. 30% is actually a low side loss when you consider that on average bitcoin appreciate >1000%/year.

Yeah, like mental illnesses are psychological. Bragging rights more important than actually getting your money? Hell, I've hit the ATH on Trade Hill, Bitoption, Bitmarket.eu and...what? they don't exist anymore? WooHOO! I had the most BTC there when they disappeared! Yeah for me!!!!!!! I win, right?

this is the greed/fear paralysis. over and over, my friends and family express an interest to get into bitcoin, but want to wait until a price dip. then, when there is a dip, they fear a crash and don't want in. Then it hits a new ATH and they want in again...on the next dip.

I stagger bear buys AND bull sells. I would literally go crazy trying to perfectly time the market and missing almost every time.

a week ago, we would have been happy to find ourselves in the 900s range this week. ride the honeybadger, Hoss. this ain't the merry go round.

Teaching them is not as hard as getting them to discard what they think they already know.  I think it's hilarious when broke-ass people, eyeballs deep in debt try to give me financial advice.

I actually hope that's true, because as soon as the wankers get out of the game, liquidity will dry up and we'll sooner reach a new ATH. I predicted it will take three months to shake out all the weak hands. I'm standing by that prediction. two months to go.

Not really. You seem to be making my point for me. Every dump does shake out weak hands. it only stayed at the ~100$ for six months or so. The recovery from the 2011 crash took 18 months. i believe the recovery time is correlated with the proportional rise of price in the rally. by that metric, we have three months to wait (give or take 3 three months) before the next rally.

seems obvious to me. The FED is creating money and giving it to banksters, effectively stealing the purchasing power of private citizens and giving it to the very people who caused the crisis in the first place. Zombie banks get recapitalized so the don't look like zombies anymore, even though they have a funny smell and unnatural expressions on their faces. The problem got papered over and never fixed. The entire housing market is being artificially levitated on a cushion of counterfeit money which protects homeowners a little, the banks a lot, and really screws anyone wanting to become a first time buyer. household formation is grinding to a halt.

Has your understanding of economy and politics changed since you started watching bitcoin? are your convictions stronger or weaker?  When new information come along, you can either learn or rationalize. two years ago, even here on this forum, the doubters were many and loud. the eventually leave and new doubters show up. Never saw even a single on admit he was wrong, so rationalizing rather than learning seems to be the normal reaction. But it's the few who are capable of learning who will change the world. 1%/year  is huge.  Future economists will look at today's mainstream economists the way today's doctors look at witchdoctors. The Austrians are being validated and it causes much consternation and cognitive dissonance amongst the statist econoboobs. entertainment and profit. it's win-win for me :-)

I agree, but how great is it that such a verification is possible? if they can provide that kind of evidence of legitimacy, then it's easy to rule out the ones who don't.

Bitcoin may actually get more volatile as we round the first elbow of the technology adoption "S" curve but will stabilize after the second elbow and by "stabilize" I mean slow close to linear rather than exponential increases in value. The problem always is AS COMPARED TO WHAT? Since fiat currencies depreciate against all commodities over time, BTC may well continue increasing exponentially in value until the fiat currency fails.

I always know the best time to buy...a day after it happens.

I read you bastards often enough to notice patterns. Gloom and doom until the banks close on Friday and nobody can get fresh fiat to the exchanges, THEN you buy like sailors on leave with nobody around to outbid you. I'm keeping some powder dry.

I bought in 2011 at the peak of $31. Good thing I hedl.

Overstock is using Coinbase, NOT Bitpay, Geniuses.

the rear view mirror. bought at $789 just sold. BOOyah!

don't worry. I still have plenty to sell you then. ;-)

I hate selling coins, but my job doesn't pay all the bills. I bought in with money I couldn't afford to lose Friday and that's why I sold today. I'm a long term bull of course, and this little day trade bought me some time. I beat the bots for once!

the line showing the uptrend in these log charts is obviously flatter than the trend it is supposed to be showing.

had $2000 left there myself. waited over two months before I gave up, cut my losses and converted back to BTC at their outrageously inflated prices, but at least i got something. FtGox is dying running out of coins to trade. that's hwy the price is so high there. I lost close to 20%.  Mark pissed away a billion dollar opportunity with that company.

Coinbase is down. This should be interesting. Nobody really knows their volume.

and you altcoin assholes need to stick to your own threads and subforums. The Moderator here is really dropping the ball.

I really wish there was a safe reliable way to lend out my coins to bears for short-selling. I'd get more coins and market slides would be halted by bears covering their shorts. it would be win-win. and I'd get the added entertainment of short-squeeze drama.

yeah, interest rate is too low and Bitfinex isn't established enough for me to feel comfortable putting too many BTC there...yet.

Good luck.,  Please keep us posted.I would actually be happy if Gox can salvage this implosion, but I'm not expecting it.

Unlikely, Hoss. I and about a thousand other guys provided that support and will again. I'd love to get more cheap coins, but doubt I'll get the opportunity.

this is BITCOINtalk.org, not Dogecointalk. You fuckers are just being rude. I don't go to your house, piss in the flowerpot and shit on your rug. Please do us the same courtesy. You have your own, threads, your own subforum, your own reddit. use them and leave us alone. We don't want you here. You are like juveniles. you missed the early adopter phase and you think it's unfair. tough shit. life ain't fair. It'll be even less fair when your shitcoin tanks but I won't invade your space and gloat about it cuz, you know, I'm better than you. Now do me the favor of fucking off and possibly dying, but that last part is up to you. Thanks.

The price prolly won't drop at Gox because too many people like us are waiting for it to happen. They'd have to make some major announcement like a deal with a big bank to fully automate SWIFT withdrawals and I really doubt that will occur. Best thing IMHO would be for Mark K to sell out to someone who has his shit together.  Some smart VC should be making him a sales pitch on that right now. Gox is hemorrhaging market share and that price differential (that is widening) is just the sound of a dying beast.  

of course it's possible, but by no means certain. It may take weeks, months or eternity so it depends on how long you can afford to wait. MtGox could just go out of business and then you're stuck at 100% loss. Tough call, I know. Really hope it works out for you.

somebody got an ass load of fiat they trying to get out.   That should tell you something.  i wonder if gox shuts it's doors if the price will move much on the other exchanges.  many see it coming already, apparently.

totally convinced, eh? Can I quote you on that later?

Just struck me that a possible explanation for the "Willy" buybot on Gox is that Magical Tux does not have enough coins to make his depositors whole. If he is indeed illegally operating as a fractional reserve, then he would need more and more coins to keep the illusion going.  With the fiat withdrawal backlog, the bot could be buying with money that is supposed to be pending for withdrawal. For all we know, he already left town. When was Mark K's last known public appearance?

May not happen at all. I think it is being priced in already. Price may actually go up with a resolution to this fiasco.

need confirmation for sure. This would be huge.

So far, this is a "down" day, and Bitcoin hasn't had more than three down days in a row since Sept. 2013.  This is the third down day. 

Yeah, but in which direction? We all know what happened after last September.

You might have it backwards. These "bears" are actually waiting for a (re)entry-point.  Money is piling up on the sidelines.

In four years, I have never seen a big drop after sideways motion. Drops come after peaks. It's entirely possible that sub $800 coins will never come back. I hope they do, so I can buy more, but I'm in a club with many, many members.

I'm close to all-in, but my job as a speculator is to help stabilize the price (buy low sell high and make bitcoin more useful for merchants). Can't very well do that without some dry powder, can I?

It gets below $500 and I start selling motorcycles, trucks, houses to buy much, much more- but it's just no going to happen. Bitcoin hodlers who didn't sell after a drop from $1200 to $500 sure as hell won't panic after a drop from $800 to $500. The panicky and their bitcoins soon part. We hodlers are battle-hardened veterans.

The free market is not zero sum. Both parties to a trade must feel that they are better off, otherwise, no trade will occur. I provide liquidity and if I provide it when it is most needed, I profit. I soak up excess liquidity, and if I do it when it is needed, I profit. I serve the market, and market participants like you. If I do my job well, I make money. If I do my job poorly, I lose money. If you want to get rich at everyone else's expense, I suggest you work in government.

LOL. why? It's more uplifting to believe we need guys with guns pointed at everybody in order for society to survive? Schadz, you are serving the market by looking out for #1. That's the beauty of it. The free market uses human nature to make society better. Government tries to change human nature by threatening massive violence. The problem is that government officials are subject to the same flawed human nature as the people they rule, er, govern.

Bitcoin proves that we don't need a monopoly on violence AKA the State. Decentralized governance is better. How often does a guy like me get the chance to get rich while simultaneously supporting the cause he believes in? Good time to be alive.

Bitcoin's enemies are divided into two camps. One says it's a joke and will fail on it's own. The other says it's a dangerous threat to the status quo. We can exploit this with a divide and conquer strategy because obviously they can't both be right. Wall Street knows how to hedge, and the hedge bet is to split the difference, buy into bitcoin with some tiny fraction of the wealth they control. An outright ban will leave them next to record stores and newspapers in the dustbin of history. I think they know this, but in the long run it doesn't matter. Adapt or die. Nobody can disinvent this technology.

Extreme wealth may be insanity, but bitcoin is the most democratic money on the planet. in a free market, wealth distribution is still unequal, but less so because the marginal utility of money is like any other marginal utility. Only with the uneven playing field created by the State can wealth disparity reach the levels we see today.

This is a logical conclusion. Do you need me to spell it out? Government by definition is a monopoly of initiatory violence in a given geographical area. Arbitrary rules are enforced by threat of violence regardless of whether or not one has consented to be governed by those rules. I can smoke a joint, make a bet, or rent a hooker, violate nobody's rights and still find myself facing down a gun barrel from some costumed goon with a badge. You say I can move, but I can't. Some other violence monopoly set up shop anywhere else I could move to. If governments provided any goods or services worth having, they wouldn't need to force us to pay for them. We'd do it willingly. I should be able to shop for traditionally government-provided services like I shop for anything else. Instead I am kidnapped (arrested) for not paying the protection money (taxes). If I resist, I'm tased or shot. if I try to escape jail, I'm shot. Taxes are involuntary, which means they are theft. You can't pretend it's not theft just because the State is the thief.

I'm not against rules. I'm not against governance. I'm against monopoly and centralization. I'm not even against violence. I'm against initiatory violence. Defensive violence is obviously and unfortunately sometimes necessary, but if you think the State isn't a gun pointed at your face, try not paying your taxes.  

"Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master." - George Washington

Can I borrow them? I'll pay you back right after the crash. Wait, did it crash already? Can't imagine you bought at ATH.  

What'd the foundation do this time?

because XRP is pre-mined, obviously.  Also Ripple is based on trust in people. Bitcoin is based on not trusting people.  The market decides.

not sure what you wrote, Fonzie. Yer on my ignore list. So sad. You were so cool, but then you jumped the shark and then you started selling reverse mortgages on TV commercials. How the mighty have fallen. such sit on it. much up your nose with a rubber hose.

Dr. Block teaches at Tulane just down the road from me. Pretty smart guy. I think you might misunderstand him.  The root of our disagreement seems to be private property which you appear to be opposed to. This actually ties into the thread topic because ownership effectively meas control.  If you know the private key to a bitcoin address, you own it, regardless of how you acquired that knowledge. That's the way it is, regardless of how you think it ought to be. The State cannot control society so it makes no difference if you think it should. The State has powerful influence, but that's not the same thing. That influence is decreasing with the advent of new technology. This cannot be stopped, only discouraged. A smart government would tolerate it and even appear to embrace it because to do otherwise would show how powerless it really is.

The very basest of human action can be justified under any philosophy. It's wise to see things as they are and not what you think they ought to be. A true understanding is the only guarantee that your good intentions actually produce good results rather than harm. There will always be evil people. Concentrating power only attracts them. Distributing control minimizes that harm they can do.

Sure, it COULD happen, but it's unlikely, IMHO. It doesn't take a genius to read a four year log chart and realize there's an awful lot of freshly-printed fiat sloshing around right now looking for the next bubble. That QE money has got to go somewhere. if 1% of 1% makes in into bitcoin,  That's $8 million/month just in the U.S.A. 108000 bitcoins /month are being mined, that's $74/BTC. Now if you consider almost all central banks are printing like mad, multiply that by 20 and you get to $1481/BTC.  at one percent of one percent. For banksters, it's a hedge bet. life insurance. It's the smart move and I hope they don't take it, but they prolly will.

I agree. Only one percent of the one-percenters have to buy BTC with their free money. And that's if the rest of us do nothing. What are the odds the other six and a half billion people are going to just stand around watching the purchasing power of our fiat drain away?  

On the other end of the spectrum you got guys like me. I had nothing. I maxed out my credit cards in 2011 and bought in around $10/BTC because I had nothing to lose. A lot of 0% APR credit cards out there.  Sure, you shouldn't borrow to invest, but the entire housing market is built on doing just that. Look at the four year log chart. It would be a lot less stupid and risky to do that today than when I did it three years ago.

There are so many ways of tilting the playing field , that I'm afraid it would be extremely difficult to prove empirically. Barriers to entry are as varied as snowflakes. The best one I know of is the metrics used by the World Health Organization that showed Somalia actually improved in most measured areas under statelessness. Unfortunately wealth distribution was not one of those metrics. Legally nuanced differences between property ownership and control also make wealth distribution measurements problematic. Logically, it's easily proven via public choice economics and praxeology, which is prolly why those fields of economics are given such short shrift by the establishment.

Yes, I agree with Block on those views also, because the alternative is worse. The HR gestapo that polices sex harassment issues in modern work-spaces is worse. And if my Navy enlistment wasn't a slave-contract, then I don't know what one is. But this is something for another thread.


I don't really care if you consider me a true anarchist or not. I'm Rothbardian and we both know what that means. I hold that the State is neither morally legitimate or necessary, but private property is.  Couldn't care less if I'm in your extremely unpopular club or not.

On the first point, this is patently false. On the second, how do you say this after writing out the Rothbardian boilerplate on morality? To be clear, you believe that voluntary contracts justify anything, right? I noticed you didn't address my question about what happens when monopolistic dynamics arise in an ancap society -- how meaningful is consent then? How "free" is such a market, and how ethical are usurious contracts entered into by such force of circumstance?

You said you were against monopoly -- see Benjamin Tucker. The absence of government won't mean that monopolies are magicked away, and ancap theory has no problem with that.
[/quote]

With respect to Mr. Tucker, monopolies are only possible under the State. Private monopolies start to lose market share the moment they exploit their dominant position unless the State prevents them from doing so. Even the most capital-intensive industries see competition. Virgin Galactic is a good example. OTOH, a monopoly may exist if it doesn't exploit it's dominant position, but why would we even care in that case? Competition is there to benefit consumers, not competitors.

and if voluntary contracts don't justify everything, then you have to be saying that people do not have the right to enter into certain kinds of contracts, even if they want to do so. Who decides what types of contracts are ok? You? You think you can take away people's rights for their own good? Who are you to interfere? You think you can run people's lives better than they can? Do you have the same incentives to make the right choices? obviously you don't, even if you're sooooo much smarter and wiser than them. Such arrogance.

Not believing in property would be like claiming Bitcoin could function with two public keys and no private keys. Your'e not against bitcoin because you don't think it works. You're against it because it works too well. well, your cognitive dissonance is not my problem. Welcome to my ignore list.

The original monopolies such as the East India Company were explicitly issued exclusive licenses to operate by the State. Later monopolies used more subtle means such as the rigidly-enforced patents and copyrights of Microsoft.

By contrast, Standard Oil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Oil was given few if any special privileges by the government and is often cited for predatory practices...against competitors, but not consumers. Oil prices actually went up when anti-trust legislation broke it into thirty three separate companies. Ironically, the combined stock value of the 33 companies made Rockefeller even wealthier than he was before.

Rockefeller didn't gouge his customers because he knew that he wasn't just competing against other oil companies. He was competing against other products such as whale oil and coal. It could even be argued that he is partly responsible for sperm whales not going extinct.

Geez. I've seen that before. Maybe I'll get to use that dry powder after all.

They know that, but some of the day traders here are in full FUD mode going into the weekend hoping to ignite a panic sell-off so they can buy on the cheap.  It's getting kinda hard to dismiss all the good news rolling in daily. Two kinds of traders: the kind that profit from volatility and reduce volatility are good for bitcoin. The kind that intentionally increase volatility so they can profit from it are bad for Bitcoin. Doesn't really matter much. It's a much less fragile system than it gets credit for.

Overstock might be surprised at how much new business they get when bitcoin goes up significantly. Buying stuff may be the best way to take profits from a tax avoidance standpoint. I'm planning a whole bunch of purchases myself.

Coinbase charges 1% with no fees for the first million dollars.

It'll be interesting when OS's suppliers also start accepting BTC and they won't need to cash out. For every $100,000/day get's trapped in the bitcoin system with no cashout, it supports a price increase of $27/BTC.  

more or less sustainable than a fiat world reserve currency from a country that runs trillion dollar deficits?

We like to mix it up for the fun of it. Keeps you guessing.

seriously, originally the weekday rallies petered out on weekends causing dips because banks were close and nobody could get money to the exchanges. Then people started noticing this and stockpiled fiat looking to scoop up bargains. If the dip didn't come or didn't go low enough, it effectively short-squeezed all the bargain hunters, causing a rally. So using double reverse psychology, we will go back to dips. unless we use double double reverse psychology and have another rally. 

With less than four hours to go on bitcoincharts, This will be the first time since early September of last year that we have four red-candle days consecutively. Considering the low volume, I read this as bullish, but we need a good-sized down-tick to put blood in the water and ignite the feeding frenzy.

$803 by my count. juuuust a little more to go.

If the Chinks are leading this panic, we gonna get some cheap coins, Brothers. Panda Bear trap!

patience.  You'll see.

HODL......

1st buy completed.

fail. Buy on the way down. Sell on the way up. unless you have money you don't want.

Catching falling knives is my specialty. If it falls more, I'll buy more. I'll hand you that knife on the way back up ;-)

Son, I waited 18 months for it to go back up once. This ain't my first rodeo.

too soon, Junior! Massive dump at stamp.

The thing about eating a Chinese bear...an hour later you're hungry again  

778 on Stamp. Might get another bite soon.

Just did! gettin' mah coins back!

LOL. at $500, I'll panic sell my motorcycle to buy bitcoin!

The sky IS falling in China, but that's all the more reason they should be buying BTC.  Sure as hell wouldn't want to be leveraged, though.  you can't pump 8% GDP groeth for decades without it catching up to you. They got bad loans on the books that makes IndieMac look downright conservative but if my bank was failing, I'd want some bitcoin!

That's what yer magik 8 ball told u, Newbie?

I doubt we could be that lucky. I'm a kid in a candy store, here

the coffers were already stuffed with money from the coins we sold at $900. We're just buyin' em back now.

gonna need more popcorn. At least it's not boring anymore.

You think your coins are worth less now than they were a week ago, before you could buy stuff with them at Tiger direct, fancy.com and a bunch of porn sites and casinos?
This dip is nothing. If I had panicked when it plunged from $31/BTC to $3/BTC or from $260/BTC to $70/BTC, I wouldn't have any now. Just Chill. This happens with Bitcoin and you should know that. In fact, buy more. You may never get another chance like this.

Choo choo, motherfuckers.

congrats. I bought at $780 on Coinbase, but it never went down to $770...yet. It got close. If it does, I'll buy more.

I've been hearing that for days from several different people. Where do you get this? I'll be buying the whole way down if you're right, but they seem pretty damn cheap right now.

A crash that big would be bad for Bitcoin and scare away new investors and more importantly merchants. I believe in this thing and I want it to succeed in the long run, not just make short term money. Of course making money is good too, but it's not my top priority. But maybe a slower adoption rate is better. Most people couldn't handle these swings. That's why there's more slot machines than chairs at the no limit table. Texas Hodl 'em!

 careful, Hoss. You might miss the train.

copycat scammers and greedy opportunists always flock when they think there's easy money to be had. This is the price of success. They think we were just lucky. They will learn the hard way that is was courage in the face of extreme odds that got us here and we won't part with our rewards easily.

If the gamblers are primarily buying altcoins with bitcoin, then I don't see how that's bad for Bitcoin. They couldn't hurt the price anymore than they helped it in the first place. It's not really any different than using bitcoin to gamble dice or poker. Later updates of the Bitcoin client might even adopt some of the good alt-coin ideas. It's when they bypass bitcoin and have altcoin-to-fiat exchanges that it could be a dangerous distraction. Money is the most marketable commodity. Like the Highlander said, "There can be only one." 

and then they expect it to bounce back immediately to new all time high, as if the market exists to serve them. No, a crash like that would put us back many months, possibly years. Let the golden goose slip into a coma cuz u don't wanna feed it. Well, we're gonna feed it and you'll miss your chance to reload. (howz that for mixed metaphors?)

Tough shit. I started buying in at $6/BTC when it was only pennies a few weeks earlier.  You don't need other people to lose for you to win. Those people who bought in before me deserved it. Those of us who bought in before you deserved it. You think I resent Goat because he's two orders of magnitude ahead of me? Absolutely not. I'll get my turn and you'll get yours if you're humble enough to take it. You want cheap coins? THESE ARE THE CHEAP COINS. Down and up doesn't make you any richer than up and up. The fact that you want the market to crash just makes you an asshole and a fool. A $200 crash will not hasten a new ATH. It will prolong it.

You're a dipshit. let's say you're right and it crashes and you get three coins for the rice of one now. it takes three months to recover and you've trippled up. Or you could just buy one now and the price doubles two months in a row (because nodody got spooked by the crash that didn't happen) and you've got FOUR times your buy-in. I'm not too surprised you're unemployed with little money when you display an attitude like that. And you'll never be richer than me. If it crashes, I'll just be right there buying with you. asshole.

We just had a crash and consolidation. Maybe we need  another one. I don't know, but I don't want to see anybody get hurt, and nobody get's hurt if we only go up from here except the people waiting now for a lower price point with too much cash on the sidelines. I don't have a crystal ball and maybe waiting now is is good strategy, but it's good for Bitcoin if there's less volatility.

The number of coins is completely arbitrary. What matters is the value of your total stash. I once had a goal of 1000 coins and I alllllllmost reached it, but I'll never get that now and you know what? doesn't even matter.  It was just a nice round number. Something psychological. What matters is my daughter can have braces, a quincinera, a college education and a wedding some day. 

and a single bitcoin now WILL be worth millions if the multi-year log trend holds.  in only three to five years.

ok,  that was funny. Hey, you may be right. This is completely new territory for everybody. We're making history here. Just don't miss your shot waiting for the perfect entry point. My dad top-ticked the 2011 bubble perfectly, buying in at the worst possible time. It actually worked out though because I know him and he would have lost his nerve if he had waited. You have the opposite problem. It might not crash and you never get in.  If you get in now, worst case scenario is you lose a year or two before you're worth millions. (or we could all lose our asses, in which case the whole point is moot) You're young. A year or two seems llike a long time but it's not.

Sigh. ok Junior, read carefully:

1 BTC=~$800 now  ~1000% annual appreciation for the trend.

in one year 1 BTC=~$8,0000
two years 1BTC=~$80,000
three years 1BTC=~$800,000
Four years 1 BTC=~$8,000,000
Five years 1 BTC=~80,000,000

$80 mil is a position to produce stuff. Now this trend may slow down, but again, you're young.  You say you want to swing for the fences. Good. I'm like that too. Just don't strike out waiting for the perfect pitch.

Either the technology will be adopted or it won't. It's basically a binary outcome. it's still a long shot, but it's a heluva lot more likely than it was three years ago.

do the math. What is Gold's market cap and what market share do you think Bitcoin will take?
What is VISA and Mastercard's market cap and what market share do you think Bitcoin will take?
and Western Union, Moneygram?
and Paypal?
and microtransactions?
and national currencies?
and SWIFT wire transfers? ACH?
stuff we haven't even thought of yet?

$984 trillion is only a fraction of the world's derivatives market.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/03/worldwide-derivatives-market-estimated-as-big-as-1-2-quadrillion-as-banks-fight-efforts-to-rein-it-in.html

You also have to consider that world GDP is growing exponentially and dollars are being debased at the same time.  $80mm may only buy a cheeseburger a decade from now!  It actually would've been a heluva bargain in Zimbabwe a few years back. I have a few $100,000,000,000 Zimbabwe bills that I bought on eBay. The world's reserve currency will probably be the last to fall, but hyperinflation is pretty much inevitable with fiat currencies. If the only weapon you have is a printing press, every problem looks like a liquidity problem.

Of course. ten years total before the adoption rate goes linear is certainly within the realm of possibility.But, c'mon, does it really matter? What's important is the amplitude of the virtical section.

That's the idea ;-)

Seriously, Bitcoin has the potential to do much more than merely replace national currencies. It has the potential to allow dramatically increased world productivity and wealth. The financial sector is currently sucking off around 8% of global economic activity. Bitcoin could cut that in half.

There are more cars per capita now than there were horses per capita 150 years ago. This is because additional utility is produced at the margins. A more efficient disruptive technology can take more than 100% market share of the technology it replaces.

I care and I'll be buying the whole way down if it goes that way. I'm part of the market too, ya know. I'll be doing it for the good of the network, but I'm gonna make a good amount of coin doing so. It's the incentives that make bitcoin almost indestructible.

Yeah, we have U.S. 90 shut down here in Morgan City. It's kinda funny. First time we've seen ice in four years and everybody's freaking out about it.

Pretty quiet out there.  Bulls and bears waiting for the other to move so as to catch opponents off balance.  Mexican standoff=merchants win=Bitcoin win!

What's so ridiculous? Maybe an early adopter sold ~10,000 coins  at about ~1,000/BTC in a dark pool order, discovered his money was trapped, and now is painfully taking the only exit left. It's possible.

Public service Announcement: Today's panic sell-off has been canceled due to lack of interest. Tomorrow's panic buy will continue as scheduled. Thank you. That is all.

Hmmmm. No panic sellers. Who's gonna be the first bear to capitulate, close his short position and cut his loss. He'll be smarter than the average bear.

Wow, somebody sold a few billion dollars woth of Stocks today. What do you think they'll going to do with alllll those profits? let 'em sit in depreciating fiat? Hey, didn't that bitcoin center just open up on Wall Street?

That's just semantics. Has there been a 20% drop from the peak? I don't think so but I don't follow it that closely anymore. What is relevant is that just a tiny "taper" a small reduction in the amount of fiat that the central bank is counterfeiting, has triggered this pullback. The economy is drowning in a sea of debt and need a constant morphine drip of "liquidity" to keep going. If the market drops far enough, we know (because they've done it so many times before) they will increase the money printing with all of the price inflation that entails. It will happen. They've told us in advance that they will do it again.  Ironically, this will very likely fuel another bitcoin bubble because although they can control the fiat money supply, they cannot control where that money flows to. Anyone who can see the writing on the wall can extrapolate the end game of hyperinflation.  The best hedges against hyperinflation are precious metals and bitcoin.

The smart money is going into bitcoin. The timing of the flows is unknown and unknowable, but it's coming.

OMG, it's Saturday and nobody's panicked yet- time to throw around some FUD! 
Yeah, Gox sucks, but we've known that for a while and it's priced in. What's gonna happen if this correction doesn't come? All you bastards sitting in fiat are gonna scramble for the same coins. First one to break loses the least. Who's it gonna be?

Momentum traders increase volatility. They are parasites. I love taking their money.

Oooh, that 315 ask wall at $800 is scary. it couldn't possibly move or vanish. Never happens.

lol Those other moving averages don't mean nothin, right?

Sorry, also not new. I got 31 coins stuck over there myself I haven't been able to access for a year. Just think of all those one way ATMs now putting buy side pressure on the market. APIs for employees to receive paychecks in BTC. Major retailers announcing every day they accept bitcoin. Wall Street Licking it's lips. How cheap is cheap you gotta be asking yourself.

oh, so the 100D, 1M- you don't watch these. I see.

It WAS possible. $170 differential may be an indicator that it's no longer the case. Any reports of recent successful fiat withdrawals? Or ANY withdrawals? I pulled 2BTC out about a week ago. No problems.

Not too volatile today, maybe move those MacDs out a time frame or two, eh?

It is in the states. QVC up the street is affiliated, among others. Here comes the boom.

Keep in mind people, were on a four year logarithmic up trend of 1000%/year, when we hit the bottom elbow of the technology adoption S curve, it's going to go straight up and anyone sitting in fiat risks missing it just to get a few cheap coins.

maybe maybe not. the point is, you risk missing the train. The longer you wait to get back on, the more expensive the bitcoins.

MMMM. Bear meat is delicious.  

You guys do realize how thinly traded this market is, right? The real whales are hodling. 

If I was Chinese, I'd get as much money to the exchanges as I possibly could while there's still time. After the door shuts, bitcoin will be much harder to get, which will drive the price up.

I think FUD is a Chinese word for "opportunity".

There is a high probability that Gox will be rescued, bought out or bailed out the way smaller exchanges were rescued in the past, but what is clear now is that Mark is running it into the ground.  it still claims to be the world's largest exchage on it's home page, for Chrissakes.  This is obviously, undeniably, verifiably false and does great harm to their credibility.

Bitcoin is based on Austrian economics and praxeology. In Austrian economics, there is no such thing as "intrinsic value."  All value is derived from PERCEIVED use and future use.
If praxeology is valid, and the success of Bitcoin so far indicates that it is, intrinsic value will carry the same economic weight as "blessed" or "cursed".

No way! I'LL be holding the bag. The one who dies with the most bitcoin wins!  

It couldn't happen unless the exchange was operating as a fractional reserve.

http://www.bitcoiniacs.com/


Lol. They had to shut down the buying option.

If it's easier to sell bitcoin than buy it, what does that tell you? There are far more buyers than sellers. otherwise they could just buy and sell the same coins over and over.
This is bullish. They claim it's getting harder to buy on bitstamp, where they reload at. interesting. Of course they could buy my bitcoins if they were desperate enough, but my markup would be a little higher than theirs.

WAY too big of a spread between buying and selling. I can buy cheaper and sell higher on coinbase. I can sell higher on localcoins for cash. Maybe for very large orders, this would be better, but I'm not at that level yet.

That's not a wall. That's a pizza.

Winlevoss Trust is being vetted by the SEC. Bitcoin Investment Trust on Second Market is open for business, but that's not an exchange most institutional investors are allowed to trade in.

dammit, somebody got my cheap coins. You take one morning off...

me too, Bro! Weeeeeee! cheap coins!!

going the other direction for now. Hope you don't miss your shot.

I live in a town of 12,000 where only about a dozen people have heard of it and I'm the only one who owns any. Yeah, we're still in the stealth phase.

I imagine after the second elbow on the technology adoption "S" curve. Sooooo, a few more years minimum.

Geez, I caught that falling knife at almost the exact bottom. Of course if it crashes again, I'm doubling down. Not bad for a guy who thought a MacD was a hamburger a few days ago.

"I would remind you that extremism in the defense of Bitcoin is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of coins is no virtue!~ Barry Bitwater

Unless the people who are buying are long-term hodlers, in which case it's a bear trap.

hodlers hodl. That's why they're called "hodlers".  It could go back down, but people looking at a four year log trend line are not going to sell. Nobody knows how much liquidity is soaked up by hodlers until the next parabolic move up. I've seen it too many times. If I was a power player, this is exactly the kind of dip I'd be looking for.

Obviously you are right, but most people are by nature herd animals who bet the trend. It's the interplay between the smart money and the lemmings that give us market swings. And in this market, the smart money guys take there profits in Bitcoin, not fiat.

That's way too big a hedge, IMHO. A hedge is a bet you hope you lose, like life insurance. I hedge 10% the same way stock investors typically hedge 5-10% in precious metals.
this market has had three rallies of more than 10X, but the proportional increase is going down for each successive rally.

That seems about right, but I'd keep some of that liquid in case a crash presents another buying opportunity.

Seeing some action on coinbase/stamp. The rumors of bitcoin's death have been greatly exaggerated.

Hopefully It'll tech some of the lemmings not to join the stampede every time some fresh FUD gets slung.  Or I'll keep taking their money. I'm good either way.

That's because for women, feelings determine reality and not the other way around.

buy the rumor. sell the news.

I think you may have it backwards. The government, any government, is essentially an engine for driving money to the special interests. They do that through taxation and regulation to get distributed costs and concentrated benefits. Bankers may be a special interest group, but we are a more concentrated and therefore more special group. For bankers, it is far more cost effective to hedge against a bitcoin takeover by buying a small stake in it than it is to fight us with largely ineffective prohibitions and regulations. Most bankers who even know about bitcoin think it is a joke or a fad. The banksters who see it as a threat are not numerous enough to fight it and don't want to do it if their fellow bankers are going to free ride on their efforts. So they hedge and join us. The other bankers won't realize what a disruptive technology it is until it's too late. they are the Tower records and blockbuster video owners of the financial world.

Their business model is going to change regardless of whatever else they do. You can't uninvent new technology. If I was a bankster, I would try to pull a Steve Jobs (Steve Job?) using my existing market leverage while I still had it. The first bankster to break from the pack wins. Or they all lose and someone else just takes over their entire market. Bitcoin is coming. My bank closed today because of the weather. WTF?? the weather? seriously?

Bitcoin today is like the Internet before the World Wide Web. We don't even have our mass adoption app yet. We have email where we can message a few thousand other nerds.  Overstock, Coinbase and Bitfinex are like Usenet, telnet and gopher. Official approval is like when America Online, Compuserve and Prodigy opened their internet portals. Still waiting for our Mozilla Browser.

Stereotypes become stereotypes because they are generally accurate. I don't have the resources to judge everyone on the planet individually so I play the probabilities and take short cuts. Sometimes it bites me but most of the time I come out ahead. I don't consider it a flaw that women are illogical. it's a feature. If they were logical, they wouldn't be women, just men with the wrong genitalia. It's not bad for a woman to be ruled by emotions anymore than it's bad for my dog to chase cars instead of drive them. Still I don't let my dog drive, even if some dog somewhere is an excellent driver. (yes, this is hyperbole. Chill the fuck out)

That pretty much describes all actresses and supermodels. I don't care as long as they are hot looking. I don't care how good my bodyguard can drive. Don't care how touch my chef is, don't care how well my chauffeur can cook, and I don't care how reasonable my women are. If they are trainable, that's good enough.

The women who like me consider my arrogance confidence. The women who don't, consider my humility lack of confidence. It's all perception to them. I have become much more successful with the ladies after figuring this out.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled reading of the tea leaves and chicken entrails.

LOL. Lot of white knights here in for a rude awakening. It's not what you make, it's what you keep, Lads.

I'd rather date a hot airhead than some fat ugly genius. Pretty sure most other guys would too. I get all the intellectual stimulation I need from men. You know, the people who discover almost everything, build almost everything, win almost all the nobel prizes, fields medals, etc. Women are far better equipped to stimulate in other ways.

So why couldn't Mark be selling Mt.Gox's own coins or even his own personal stash, arbing (transferring the fiat) to stamp or somewhere else and transferring the coins back to FtGox to sell again? He could basically steal all the fiat deposits left at Gox without ever running out of bitcoin. How else could they continue to operate? Who in their right mind in transferring fiat to Gox now? Even if you thought you could get fiat out, nobody would want to buy at those prices.

The response is corpus dilecti, which is the principle that there are two elements to every crime 1) the harm done by an actor and 2) the knowledge or willful ignorance that harm could be done by said action.  This is why insanity is a defense. or in Mark's case, stupidity.

read more carefully. Many would-be arbitragers have sent bitcoin to gox, but nobody would send or is sending USD or fiat to Gox. All it takes is ONE arbitrager to drain the entire fiat account totals left on Gox  by selling bitcoin there, transferring the fiat to another exchange, buying bitcoin on the other exchange at lower prices, transferring the bitcoin back to Gox to sell at higher prices, rinse and repeat. Everyone including me is buying bitcoin at whatever price we can get to transfer to another exchange and sell there to cut our losses.

Nope. I sold at $800 to reload in case bears wanted to give me more coins. I'm prolly gonna get bit eventually for trading this churn, but I'll never lose money, jst end up with too many dollars and not enough coin. Too many dollars. So sad. maybe I'll cry.  Good thing I got that cold wallet to cheer me up.

Geez, c'mon. Pay attention. I can't get fiat out of Gox. You can't get fiat out of Gox, but if ONE PERSON can get fiat out of Gox, they can get ALL the fiat out of Gox.

really? Name one. One fucking person who has had a successful fiat withdrawal this year. Cuz that bastard's got my money.

Thank you. That's informative. Perhaps it's the Japanese government who is facilitating this theft for the benefit of its citizens. If so, they are killing a golden goose.

That's not it. It's obvious U.S. banks are reluctant to deal with Gox, but there's probably more to the story. I think it's likely that the Feds in the U.S. are leaning on Mark to reveal his entire customer database so that they can systematically track down every silk road customer and merchant with a digital paper trail. Every MtGox customer who used the silk road without tumbling their funds through a bitcoin mixer are possibly going to get tracked down. The Feds want to seize the MtGox funds of Silk Road users, but until they know for sure who they are, they are preventing any U.S. withdrawals of fiat. They probably want to freeze the whole exchange to catch these people, but the Japanese government won't let them for national sovereignty reasons. So the Feds stop at the farthest point they can control, the wire xfers to U.S. Banks.  

Just a theory.

yes and no. They seized those funds under the pretext that Mt. Gox didn't register as a licensed money transmitter even though there was no clear guidance that such a license was necessary at the time. The real reason was I believe because they wanted to put the squeeze on Mark to pressure him to aid in their Silk Road investigation.  These kinds of ham-fisted police tactics are common and it's we, the honest law-abiding users who get caught in the crossfire.

How ironic that in almost every criminal as opposed to civil trial, the government is doing exactly that.

Where's da bears? Thought you'd get those cheap coins? Sorry, I got 'em first. Go ahead, short again.

 I drink your milkshake.

Look, I'm sorry if you can lose money faster than I can make it. It's like with women. Chase them and they run. But if you're in the right place at the right time, just wait around confidently and they will fight each other for you. Also, in both cases, IT HELPS TO HAVE SOME FUCKING COINS. 

I may be a permabull, but my magic 8 ball isn't any better than your tea leaves. I just know you're swimming against the stream. My four year log chart trumps your momentum chasing day/week charts. If it goes down, I'll be buying right with you, but only to add to my HUGE BIG GIANT STASH that I earned by not listening to chartists.

Momentum chasers are parasites that increase volatility and harm bitcoin adoption by merchants. I hate you assholes and I enjoy taking your money. Just try to make it more difficult. I like a challenge.

betting against the trend is so much easier.

• buy and HODL until your stake is worth ~100X what you paid for it. This should take ~1.5-3 years
• take out 10% and put it into a trading account.
• sell half of it
• • keep the account 50/50 BTC/fiat
    
  • pick a percentage of how lopsided it needs to get before you rebablance it or
    • pick a time interval between  rebalancing
      
      • keep playing until you "lose" by getting 100% fiat
        
      • cash out, spend the money on whatever you want
        
        • take 10% from your cold storage account and start over.
          
        I say "lose" because when you trade this way, your goal is to accumulate coins, not fiat. With coins going up exponentially over time, this is waaaay better than profiting in dollars. This way, you make money while trying not to. and it DECREASES volatility.

I haven't used bitsimple but Goat does and he has street cred. I don't like their exchange rates, but I hear they're fast. I have used virwox and they are established and take credit cards, but you have to pay two comissions to go through linden dollars and they charge you a fee for inactivity!!! I've paid almost four BTC in inactivity feeds for hodling.
if you buy there, don't keep them there unless you are actively trading.

Volatility is going DOWN. Why? Because of us! The good speculators (us) take money from the bad speculators (momentum trading lemmings) who increase volatility.

Can't believe the chick is the one making the most intelligent remarks.  None of these panelists are what I would consider "experts." I could testify with more expertise, and I certainly don't consider myself an expert.

fuck you, balding dude! Coinbase is undercapitalized?  31MM in VC capital on top of a massive horde of BTC in cold wallets?

also, it's as if nobody ever heard of future's contracts to hedge volatility?   Creating a market for futures is what these hearings are partly about, I thought.

DING DING DING!!  the laughable part about the integrity and reliability of the currency when the FED announced today that the counterfeiting will continue until prices stabilize.
QEternity!!!  

Yeah, this is getting surreal.  

Who invited those panelists? It's like having a meteorology panel with a couple of rain-dancing indians on it. Still reeling from the claim that coinbase is undercapitalized. They clearly don't understand CB's business model. They take almost no risk and charge me 1% fee in both directions. Got to be just raking in money.

Just like email has to walk and talk like a post office.  This video will come back to haunt that guy.  unfucking believable.

We're not angry. We're just shocked that these "experts" don't even have a cliff notes understanding of what a distributed peer-to-peer proof-of-work cryptocurrency really is. You ca't fucking ban tumblers, for example. It's impossible to enforce. YOU don't understand it either if you think Google or centrally controlled entity can use the protocol. it's distributed peer-to-peer. by definition Google can't do it. They can only embrace it.

Amazing. Brought to you from the guys that gave us the 2008 meltdown that we still haven't recovered from and the bail-outs that we'll be paying for forever.

Yeah, even the three bears panel were mentioning $10,000 coins. Just got back from the bank to deposit some more bear ammo.

anybody youtube the morning hearings? missed 'em.

thanks!

Nobody knows exactly, but I have an idea. Bitcoin, as our friend Mr. Antonopolis likes to say, is not just money for the internet. Bitcoin is the internet of money.  Bitcoin will follow the technology adoption S curve along a similar time frame as the internet itself was adopted. this means over four years or so before the adoption rate slows to close to linear from the logarithmic. we have about a million users in the U.S. now and I estimate this will grow to about 300 million in five years, which by that time will be about 75% of the US population. Of course this is global, so total adoption at the logarithmic (or super logarithmic) rate may be longer or shorter.
1 million people this year
5 million next year
25 million the year after that
125 million In 2017,
and then in 2018, the second elbow- but this is for any adoption.
The amount of use by each individual will increase on average over that time as well. For example, I first bought a home computer in 1992 and connected to the internet in '93. Now I have two desktops, two laptops, a netbook and a smart phone. Then I connected to the 'net for less than an hour a day and now I'm wired in for about twelve hours on average. Bitcoin use and value can increase for over a decade at geometrical rates without reaching saturation. Doesn't mean it will, but it might.


This is a very rough prediction.  (plus or minus 200%)  

I disagree. They see another cash cow like the dot com boom coming and they want a slice.

This is pretty funny.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-29/difference-between-gold-and-bitcoin-explained-elliotts-paul-singer

in other words, "don't invest your money in these new-fangled automobiles. Horses have stood the test of time." this from a guy managing a 23.3 billion dollar horse farm.

Talk your book, much?

Uh, it came from a "John Winklevoss"?? long lost triplet?

What happened at the Wells Fargo Summit?

http://national.wellsfargobank.com/VirtualCurrency

We're getting some dippage on BTC-e and stamp.  I might get to go bear hunting after all.

Fairly big dump of BTC-e, other exchanges are slowly starting to follow... right into the panda bear trap.  crashing like a china in a bull shop.

$757/BTC and still dropping. I'm licking my lips.

spoke too soon. bouncing. Stamp didn't take the bait...yet.

they're just following BTC-e a little bit. The action's in China right now.

What's the deal? Huobi isn't reacting at all. If this was about the Chinese bank's halting cash transfers, they would be reacting too, I imagine. Maybe the party boys are coming after Bobby. I think their banking system is so upfucked that they might already be looking for scapegoats. yeah, that's my completely unfounded rumor. Remember, you heard it here first!

yeah, we take advice from newbies. That's how we made all our money. GTFO.

That's it? That's all the bears can do? Try more FUD, see if that works.

Except I am more than a day trader. That's only how I hedge. A dramatic drop would slow merchant adoption, which is more important in the long term than a new ATH soon. We're creating a new payment system, not a casino.

Those of us with substantial holdings will not deplete them by buying stuff at a low exchange rate. We didn't get where we are by buying high and spending low, so price needs to go up gradually and then we'll share with merchants. Overstock bitcoin sales went down because the exchange rate went down. If it goes up, more bitcoiners will buy stuff there and then more merchants will jump on board.

Interesting. I can see why distress in emerging markets would be good for Bitcoin, and I predict a whole lot more distress to come. Not happy about that even if it will be good for my bottom line. Lotta people gonna get hurt. They'll get less hurt if they buy some bitcoin.

I started buying when it was less than $10/BTC and I still am going to wait. You seem to think it was easy money. It wasn't. Everybody was screaming at us to sell when it jumped to $50, $100, $200, etc.  We held. and we held through the crashes too. Easy money spends easy. Hard money is hard to part with.

I mostly hold because it's going up. It might go down first, but it's going up and I think even you know it. Market timing is not something everybody should attempt. I'm pretty good at it and even I use less than 5% of my holdings to play around with.  Investors are forward thinking. The utility value today is only one piece of the price. It's also the implied future value.  When the shit hits the fan in Turkey, Argentina or wherever, liquidity is gonna dry up fast and I want to be in a position to supply it.

Just wondering, where's all those coin you mined now? Still got em? hodling? or did you sell too early?  You sold at the top and now you wanna buy 'em back?

yeah, this guy's hodling and criticizing me for telling people to hodl. so many trolls...

Economics and trading are two different things, Junior.  The fact that you consider it play money may be why you have less than a quarter of your original stack. Hope you enjoy that DD2 memory. Your brain memory isn't apparently doing you much good.

That's close to MY magic number, but not everybody's. I try to stabilize prices by buying BTC on the way down and selling it on the way up to reduce volatility. Making money is just how I keep score on how good I am doing.  It's the opposite strategy of the momentum traders and it can be very profitable if you buy and sell the right amounts at the right times. and they haven't stopped spending. They've slowed down. We're aiming at moving targets.

Kid, you can learn from people like me or you can learn the hard way. It's your choice. An ego is an extremely expensive luxury to maintain. Fiat is a terrible store of value but it's liquid, so if you need to keep some around to maximize your options, fine. Just remember most people work for their money but smart people let their money work for them.

Not that much of a gamble. If the USG bans bitcoin, the FBI will have to destroy their private keys and that would be very bullish. It would still be traded here, just underground. An outright ban is very unlikely, even if regulation tightens to the point of scaring institutional investors and certain whales off. I think that is unlikely as well. What's more likely is that mining difficulty will increase substantially due to some new hardware coming on line and the price will adjust up accordingly. More merchants will come online. QE will continue or even increase, one or more national currencies will hyperinflate, new applications for the blockchain will be developed, client software and apps will be released, and we'll all wish we bought more of those overvalued bitcoins.

I think a healthy dose of mistrust towards the government and the banks is a good thing, but you're overdoing it here. We're not important enough to hate yet. By the time we are, it'll be too late for them.

Bitcoin increases transactional efficiency, therefore in creates wealth or more accurately destroys less wealth than alternative forms of value transfer. There is a difference between wealth and money. Money is a representation of wealth, but by increasing the money supply, governments dilute the value of each unit of currency.

Worse. Bandits don't expect you to be grateful, don't pretend to be acting in your best interest.

The U.S. Government stole most of the private gold held by Americans in 1933. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 The precedent was set and they could easily do it again. Good luck trying to steal bitcoins. Private keys? What private keys? I lost/destroyed/exposed/ate them. Good luck hiding gold in a brain wallet.

Arbitrary correlation syndrome

looking like an endangered species. Nice little spike. let's see if it's got wings.

Yeah he was doing stuff like this in 2011 when it was $12/BTC and silver was $50/oz. if bitcoin hits $2,000, I expect him to either switch to full drink-the-cool-aid bull or for his head to explode.

It's too volatile. It's going nowhere. Gimme a break. It's 8X higher than it was three months ago. If consolidation takes another month or three, that's perfectly fine. and it will eventually go up when it becomes obvious to nearly everyone that is useful and has legs.  Honey badger don't just jump when you say "jump".

So Bitcoin outperformed the stock market for January. Dollar strengthening relative to other currencies is prolly a reason why the BTC price hasn't gone up more in dollar terms.

Life ain't fair. Get over it. It's pretty unflattering for you to be envious when you yourself are likely to be very lucky in the birth lottery compared to most of Earth's population. Count your blessings. It'll make you a happier person.

bullshit. They got their bitcoin money from their Facebook settlement, another case of their foresight.

I hope one day they become richer than Zuckerberg. That would be poetic justice.

I'm starting a business as a Bitcoin consultant. There's so much work to be done building the infrastructure.  

Basically, I just tell people what bitcoin is, correct misconceptions, how it works and what their options are. My focus is more on merchants than investor/speculators, because it's merchant adoption that will be the catalyst for mainstream adoption.

I wonder about that dip too. It may be hodlers who were forced to sell for cash flow reasons even though they believed the price was going to go up or remain stable.  This worries me a little bit, because I am a medium-sized hodler with negative cash flow. There's a finite amount of time I can hodle before I start to slowly drain my portfolio, and I don't think I'm alone.  Fortunately, I keep getting zero APR credit card applications in the mail, so chances are I can hodl out for over a year or two if necessary-but I'm not selling this time because I can always get a second job if I have to.

My guess is right now, there is more pressure on the bears in short positions who will slowly start to close out their short positions if the price continues to go sideways.

Ok, that makes sense. I wasn't really following the day-to-day news during that period. Diversifications of exchanges is a very good development IMHO because MtGox was such a bottleneck and potential single point of failure. The beauty of the free market is that every problem is a potential entrepreneurial opportunity. Mark's incompetence as a CEO actually ended up helping the industry.

What was I ever wrong about? Can you provide any evidence of this assertion? I may be talking my book, but my book is doing just fine.

you say that like it's a bad thing.

now we're getting some volume!

pwned!!

Pariah states would obviously benefit, but so would other national governments. Bitcoin could be an effective way to pay off spies and informants, evade trade sanctions, establish slush funds, etc. As for the N. Korean people, it may be the difference between starvation and survival.

Five red candle days, three days of churn, and then five green candle days. This indicates a sea change of liquidity. Last time this happened in September, there was a month and a half of very slow gains before the rocket took off. If this is another example of stealth transfer of coins from day tarders to hodlers, there is reason to believe that the time frame may be accelerated somewhat. Frequency of rallies increase as their amplitude decreases.

LOL. China is a "known unknown". To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, it's the unknown unknowns that may prove my analysis faulty. Plenty of us have fiat waiting to catch falling coins from the Middle Kingdom if they decide to give them to us.

Time is on the side of the bulls. Time is always on the side of the bulls, unless you're leveraged. There's no way to be a bear WITHOUT being leveraged (no naked shorts), so all I have to do is crack a beer and wait. 

This is an orderly climb. This is very good.

CCMF! w00t!

it's 5004 on HooBoy.

that's no moon...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVekNsgUqn4

Might be a rare opportunity to observe Coinbase. It usually tracks Stamp, but what will it do with stamp down? Should be some way to calculate or at least estimate volume based on price movements with and without Bstamp up and running.

That's good!

   Who could have possibly seen that comin'?

Prices are determined by estimating discounted future value.  Supply of BTC will dry up. Supply of dogesh*t never will.

That's what we used to call in Naval Nuclear Power School a GCE (gross conceptual error). Trade requires two parties. Few will want to trade something that's scarce for something that isn't.

people will be trading Broncos Superbowl Champions T shirts for dogecoin.

Good time to accumulate coins then. Don't worry, they'll be panic buying soon enough.

They are panicking that the herd is leaving them behind. Doesn't matter where the herd is going. Safety in numbers (so they think)

Sure. We could easily create indexes similar to the DJIA or the S&P 500 which would gauge overall movements and be weighted by market cap. Kinda surprised someone hasn't done this yet. Whoever is first gets to name the index after himself!

What to do is easy. How to do it is somebody else's problem. I don't care enough about alts to make the effort.

The Debt ceiling will be raised. It always gets raised. The only other option is that they will eliminate the debt ceiling entirely. Money printers print. It's what they do.

the question is, how long cant the bears hold out? 

It would be more interesting if it was accurate. The 2011 bubble was ~3000%  (from $1 to $32), the early 2013 bubble was ~1500% (from $13 to $260), and only the last rally was 600% (from $200 to $1200).  

and the interval between each rally is getting smaller!

I agree, that's more probable than another 10X spike, but as the surges are coming closer together, we're still only looking at another 12-24 months before the $10K mark.

LOL Welcome to the forum.

Bad scenario is if Stamp buys out Gox, bringing back the single point of failure risk. Circle.com has some heavy hitters behind it. I'd like to see a buy out that puts a big exchange in NYC just in time for the next round of counterfeiting by the Fed.

Same reason Hostess, Chrysler, or anybody else gets bought out. Brand awareness, the domain name, name recognition, technical talent (yeah, I know), the trade engine, existing licenses, merchantcontracts, contracts with other payment processors, etc. 

I have pennies in my account. If a credible operator took over, there would be tens of thousands in it. I am not alone by a long shot. We would be trading, generating commissions and fees. We only left because we had to. There is still a big demand for an exchange other than stamp that can handle big volume. it would be a tremendous opportunity for someone who could recapitalize Gox. Recapitalization will take only a few million. Gox could be a billion dollar company if the operator got his act together.

thanks for helping me refill my pockets, Boys!

That's it? Toothless bears can't move the price more than 2.5%? That's the problem with slinging FUD; Diminishing returns.  

I agree. Hope you have fiat at the exchange. No sense in letting the bad guys get all the coins.

If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.

When you've been through this a couple of times, you learn to recognize the buying opportunities.

That's how you do it! It was only $760 for a second at Coinbase and I pulled the trigger, but the price changed back up before I could confirm, so I canceled. Good call (so far). Just keep buying all the way down and sell incrementally on the way back up. Soaking up volatility can be profitable!

I agree we need a good exchange in the U.S. or at least some quantum improvements in coinbase and campBX, but the stock market is going to be hurting for a while, until Janet Yellen cranks the printing press back up. You could try QQQ ultrashorts, but I would make sure you could get your money back in to BTC fast if we take another rocket ride. Good luck!

So a five percent drop is all the bears can manage with the Apple news and bitfinex glitch, eh? Hell, we're still way outperforming the stock market for the year.

Why have so many people bought my coins at $900 and sold them back to me at $785?  The only trade better than that is shorting Apple stock.

These bears are pretty weak. They claimed Bitcoin was done when it crashed to $3, when it crashed to $80 etc. Funny those bears aren't around anymore but we have this new generation saying the same shit and they think they are clever and original.  The bear markets are when you make your money, real money, crypto-not fiat. Being a herd animal is a valid survival strategy for most, but surviving isn't living. Being a cowboy on the edge of the heard on the verge of stampede, that's living.

If you believe in Bitcoin, hold your ground. Pick up some cheap coins when they are available. If you don't believe, it's ok. We'll take your coins. We don't need you, so vaio con Dios. The world needs losers or being a winner wouldn't mean anything.

Every man dies. Not every man really lives.

Yes, I'd like to thank all our Chinese friends for giving us our coins back.  

This is why I am bewildered by those who complain that so many coins are in the hands of too few. Quit selling them back so cheap and maybe we'd spread 'em around more.

+1

It's not gonna happen overnight, but it would be a good idea to start accumulating now for when the Wall Street money starts coming in.

China is no longer driving this market. They had their chance to be leaders and they blew it. All they can do now is give us our coins back.

Yeah, you see some guy in a casino making it big and you just shake your head and laugh because you know he's going to give it all back if he plays long enough. The multi-year trend is still very much on track and the smart money just waits until the rest of the world catches up. Fast money comes fast and goes fast. Slow money sticks around.

You hear these voices every time: the market's gonna crash to $5! the market's gonna crash to $50!! the market's gonna crash to $500!!! The market's gonna crash to $5000!!!
and and often they are right, but it gets easier to shrug it off every year.

You think so? I was out partying last night and I missed the bottom, so I still got lot's of dry powder left. Also, I made a call to my whale friend who doesn't follow the market as closely as me. All this little dip did was wake up the big money.

This is not the Gox observer thread. People just keep saying the same things over and over again.

Who runs that website? It is not Coinbase, so whoever runs it has access to your account.

Here's a hypothesis I haven't heard before: The willybot was wasn't in in-house bot for Gox, but for Second Market, who used the "world's most established exchange" to buy in bulk. Most of the purchases were dark pool orders, but when that pool dried up, willy went to work. Now Gox is locked up and Second Market needs another source of bulk coins, so under the guise of a two-way exchange, they are actually buying on behalf of the bitcoin Investment Trust (BIT).

If anyone has made a purchase from 2nd Market, I will be happy to revise or discard this hypothesis, but I'd like some feedback either way. If I'm right, liquidity is being soaked up under the RADAR at a scale few are aware of.

If BIT had an account at Gox, then those purchases would be off the blockchain until they withdrew them. Besides, blockchain analysis only works if you know who holds the keys to the public addresses.

unless the amount of coins in Stamp's dark pool is insufficient for their needs.

Gox openly admits they have dark pools. So does CampBX, but I'm unsure about Stamp. Moving towards a reputable exchange and stocking up on coins for Hedge funds are not mutually exclusive. If I had to guess, Circle.com is going to open an exchange, so their may be competition in New York, which would mean downward pressure on trading fees. We ca only hope for now.

Obviously its Americans who are buying the fuck out of bitcoin. Kinda pisses me off that this spread reaches it's peak when I want to be buying and when I pulled the last of my coins out of Gox, the spread was the other way so I lose the spread every fucking time. But make no mistake, it's supply and demand and the yanks are coming.

Coinbase account holders have access to our bank accounts and can buy all we want and we're obviously buying the hell out of this drop. Once again, we have to bail out Europe and the rest of the world. Getting to be a habit. You ungrateful bastards can still suck it when the dollar fails and we still get to keep world reserve currency status!

Screw China. Wouldn't  be the first time we saved their asses from Japan.

From Nazis, Commies, etc.  Those crosses on the cliffs over Normandy aren't just landscaping.

If we thought you were shit, my kinfolk wouldn't have bled and died to save your dumb asses. You are family to us. If you need us again, we'll be there again, but we'd rather not if we don't have to. No, I ain't a hero. The best of us gave everything and all I'm risking is my bank account. I did what I could at the end of the cold war, but the truth is that Statism is self-defeating and mostly what we did was wait for the Soviet empire to collapse under it's own weight. Now Statism is again threatening to end civilization and it's up to us to keep that from happening. Fortunately, time is again on our side because the laws of economics cannot be repealed by legislative fiat.

Americans ain't perfect, but we damn sure aren't gonna wait around for China to pull its head out of its ass before we do something.

I'm no fan of Wall Street and I prolly hate banksters worse than you do, but if you hate 'em so much, then why are you selling them your bitcoin at fire sale prices?  I sure as hell am not.

LOL. You can say what you want about us yanks, but tonight, the line was held by Americans at Coinbase. I probably hate my government worse than you do, but I've never been more proud of my countrymen. I don't know the future, but if I have anything to do with it, we'll be taking the lead from here. Sell your coins at a $30 loss if you want. Courage wouldn't mean anything if everybody had it.

You remind me of some guy three years ago. "Bulls still in denial here? When is it gonna touch $10 again?"

A heard a story once 'bout an Englishman who bought some land in Texas and went to inspect his property. He thought he'd call on the rancher next door, but the rancher was not to be found. So this Limey spies a ranch hand mending a fence and goes up to ask him about the rancher. "Pardon me, Ol' Chap," Says the Englishman.  "Might I inquire as to the whereabouts of your master?" The cowboy looks the Englishman right in the eye and says, "Mister, that son of a bitch ain't been born yet."

That's the America I love and it has nothing to do with the crooks in New York or Washington. You can call me a collectivist if you want, but I consider myself more of a family man. Sometimes that means being a team player and sometimes that means following your conscience, your own council, and your heart on some lonely trail.

We ain't as different as you think, Mr. Philosopher. You got gumption, and I like that. In fact, I sense a little family resemblance.

A little friendly competition never hurt anybody ;-)

A lot of good Americans come from Finland! America isn't really a nation in the European sense. It's just a place where people came from all over who wanted to be left alone by kings and parliaments so they could make something of themselves and provide for their families. A lot of that spirit got lost, but it's still alive out in the countryside and pockets of the cities. Please don't judge us by the actions of our government. We don't really get to choose who runs the show. It's always either bankster puppet A or bankster puppet B. Real Americans are standing alongside Good Finns, British, Chinese, Brazilians and whoever against the fucking banker oligarchy that stinks up every country on the planet. Those Occupy Wall Street hippies were just the loyal opposition. We're the ones who are gonna have to rebuild world finance when the fiat house of cards crumbles. I aim to do my part and I welcome anyone from anywhere who feels the same way.

If so, I'll buy more. I'll run up my credit cards if I have to. Get a second job even. This ain't my first rodeo. Sometimes I wonder if the big money monitors this forum to see when the last bulls capitulate. If so, they have a long way to wait.

I've said my peace. I was just pointing out that Coinbase isn't getting pushed around by Chinese exchanges anymore.

It's significant that Coinbase has decoupled from Stamp and led the bounce. This makes it tough to make future predictions because we don't have volume data.  Coinbase is growing at an exponential rate and once an account is verified, you can buy directly from your bank account after hours and on weekends.  

Wrong thread. My advice is hold out for a better price.

I was just thinking the same thing. That's a $140 swing in just over 2 days. Still way too early to tell if it's a dead cat bounce or not, but it could be a real bottom. I made a little money, just enough to fight another day. TERA knows her shit and it's tough to take money off of her, so I savor these little victories :-D

That's possible, Newbie, but it's also possible that the worm has turned. Every torrent begins with a trickle.

They might. I don't have a crystal ball. I just buy when it goes down and sell when it comes up, but I think it's possible that greed on Coinbase trumps fear in China. I tried like hell to buy the bottom, but San Francisco just didn't follow HooBoy. Without knowing the volume at Coinbase, we just don't know.

hmmm. I see a pattern here.

If I was a whale, I'd pay some Asians $0.30/hr to flood this forum and reddit with FUD at opportune times. I wouldn't be wasting my own time. If Bitcoin goes anywhere near $100, I will panic sell and buy it all back at $40. Hell, I'll double my coins and spend the rest on hookers and blow. That's the luxury of buying in at $10. But I think it's more likely to do this:

That's the irony. Trades based on feelings usually lead to bad feelings. I screw up market timing all the time, but losses are only actualized if you sell. If you think in terms of opportunity costs, you will go crazy.

It wasn't going down. It was a low volume melt up. Besides, it's still $735 on Coinbase. A little arbitrage and he wouldn't lose that much even if the price stays were it is or doesn't drop too much. Or he could be covering an off-exchange put and locked in his profit when he bought. But yeah, he prolly is regretting it. Hindsight is 20/20.

yeah, opportunities are everywhere, but prolly not that one. On the bright side, at least you got more than a couple of pizzas for them!

If that guy holds on long enough, he'll likely make a profit. It's just a question of how long he has to wait. Lots of coins changed hands at higher prices than that. Even momo traders are mostly just doing it to increase their coin stacks and not cash out permanently. Bitcoin's been through MUCH worse than this. I heard it said that day trading bitcoin is like juggling chainsaws on a tightrope over a vat of boiling acid. I'll keep buying until the idiots on tout TV like Jim Kramer tell me to buy. Then I'll sell. Mean time I'll mostly hodl.

Makes sense. So come Monday, there will be upwards pressure on the bitstamp price and downwards pressure at Coinbase when they equalize.  Gringos are buying.

yeah this is off-topic. Some new info, so thanks, but many of these risks can be reduced or eliminated with design changes. For example, if the reactor is capable of natural circulation, then cooling pumps wouldn't be needed after shutdown.

back to the thread. Is is just us Americans who couldn't get fiat to the exchanges who want to buy or is this a more global development?