I don't see anything changing with the market depth on Clark Moody or i286. i286 still says:

Sum bid: $13,255,954
Sum ask: 49,094

I have seen depth jumping around on both sides of the book on bitcoinity all day. There is a 3k bid wall showing there at $133, but not in Clark Moody or i286. So its probably not real as bitcoinity has been malfunctioning for weeks. It might be data from earlier points in time.

Strange things have been happening today. Earlier this morning bitcoin paranoid suddenly told me that gox had fallen 4.8% to $128! At this point I immediately panic sold a small position on btce. Grrrr.

Also, for those of you talking about gox being ddosed, it happened to bitstamp  yesterday too...

How about... "Whale Observer"

OMG BTC NOOOOOOOOOOO!

Actually they're buys being incorrectly coded as sells. If you looked at the bid and ask you could see that.

i286 seems to be having a bug today. I watched a stream of these "sells" go through at 126.38. During that time there was an ASK at 126.38 and each time one of the trades went through, the ask was reduced by 1BTC.

The walls have moved over to Bitstamp.

So is the second horn drawn now?

Gox proclaimed dead. Funeral to be arranged shortly:

TA reasons why one might sell: Right now the lower bolly, psar, and ichi cloud are all around $130 on gox and it only takes one 4k btc dump to get there. If that catches on then d1 will quickly cross down too.

It looked like the exact same order sizes and types of orders outbidding eachother in the same way both on the way up and on the way down. 4 orders about 1000K 950K 950K and 700K agressively outbidding eachother in .1ish increments. The bots are malfunctioning again, or maybe gox is testing midas in production?  The same thing happened on June 24. Some bots kept trading up and down between 100 and 110, producing about 100K volume with no effect on the price in the end.  This is just more proof that mtgox numbers are and always have been cooked up by bots and not actual demand for bitcoin. Its not millions of distinct coins that have been bought and are now held at a higher price basis -  its just the same coins switching hands over and over.

Or it could break down... why does everyone keep dismissing this possibility? Every day the required ta levels (Bollinger etc) to do so keeps creeping up (131 now), yet the market depth is failing to follow. In the past 2 months of 140 STILL no market depth has filled in. Its still only 5k to 130 (and trendbreak) and 20k to 120. Total bid depth is now $11.5m whereas 3 months ago at $110 market depth was at $16m! The volume is still low too (8k of today's volume is fake bot error) and ppl keep relentlessly dumping on stamp and btce.

Not fools, just bots. That's mostly all that trades on gox anymore and they have some pretty deep pockets. They see some TA or data from other exchanges saying they should buy so they start buying. Then they see some TA that says they should sell and start selling... Today's volume bar is about equal to the volume bar on the last big dump day so it should be dying down soon.

The "true value" of bitcoin is not going to be affected by a dumper. If it was really the "true value", then the coins would be bought. In fact, the dumper is healthy for bitcoin. These ridiculous unhindered parabolic rises and drops cause too much volatility and make btc not attractive as a currency.
 

Meanwhile, during the entire $12 run-up on gox, the other exchanges have risen no more than $4. There has basically been no participation since $136. Volume's are low too. What is going on?

So if mtgox (which now represents abut 20% of the market's volume) breaks out, is it going to lead the entire market into a rally?

That 127 on stamp just keeps popping up.

Is this wave 5?

I think everyone still runs their bots based off gox data.

There are also people who will partial-arbitrage a $20 gap so that they can switch back when the gap is $10 again.

Not everyone knows the news, or is connected with the comunity. It's not like gox's site has a wereinsolvent.pdf

It might take a while for this transition to fully occur.

People might not realize gox doesn't cash out withdrawals, because they're not immediately trying to do withdrawals. They might be saving a bunch of USD (gxd) in their accounts so they can cash out (or buy back) later. Gox doesn't have a wereinsolvent.pdf.

On the other hand, the bid has been lowering as well. It has gone form $16M to $12M. Are some people succesfully withdrawing from gox? Or is that money just in the hands of people now who have decided not to participate? Will all that money suddenly come online again at some point and cause a spike?

I think you're argument about the 40,000BTC order book level was once very accurate. However, these days it may be becoming less and less accurate/relevant as other exchanges become more popular, new exchanges are built, etfs/trusts are built, and private investors accumulate large amounts of coins offline.  The coins that would once be hidden on gox and waiting to be dumped, are now actually removed. That is unless this is all BS and we have all been duped some some REALLY good pumper.

No trading fees? Really?  Where? What is the spread like and do they have a chart and order books?  Sounds like a daytrading gold mine (for small players).

This gox run, after reaching a $19-$22 gap with other exchanges, have caused prices to finally break out over key chart levels on other exchanges and eat through the endless resistance walls.  However, this break out is short lived, on low volume, and lacking bid support. Now prices are going down again, as if nothing happened... Will this rally succeed?

And are we supposed to believe that someone is still wiring millions of usd into gox?

About 5K coins were just added to the ask around $165.

Why do you call the bottom at just $128? At that point, the entire trend line is broken and its probably going much lower. Say $100 or $86 even with the right volume, which would fit perfectly on the chart.

I can think of a few catalysts too... such as mtgox resumes normal withdraw, mtgox closes, government crackdown, or scalability/protocol issues.

The only thing that's really happened today is arbitrage. Apparently our arbiteur took a break over the weekend which allowed bitstamp to fall under the sell pressure and gox to rise uncontrollably.

Gox offers more volume (usually) and larger price swings. Lately $10 movements at gox have been $5 movements at bitstamp, and there are more waves to catch in a gox movement vs a movement in another exchange which is more smoothed.

Liquidity: Does not matter if you intend to leave gox via btc and the loss leaving will cancel out with the gain from entering (via btc).
Leverage: Somewhat of a bad idea in crypto and not for everyone.
Interest: The amounts of interest are negligible in a daytrader's eyes. They didn't join for such petty matters and have more to gain from larger price swings.
Transaction fees: You can actually get your mtgox fee down to 0.25% with enough volume.

I don't get the purpose of this thread anymore. Gox has become completely irrelevant. It is merely a slave to bitstamp. There is no fiat entering or exiting this exchange - it's merely a game of bots and traders who bet against eachother on price movements - which originate on Bitstamp. Bitstamp is where the fiat flows in an out of the btc economy now.

I think bitstamp's volume is real volume (people entering and leaving btc) whereas gox's volume is bots and traders that trade the same coins back and forth all day a dozen times. So the differences in volume may not have as much meaning as it seems.

There are posts all over this forum from people who have waiting months for their withdrawals in several threads. There are even bounties to prove a successful withdrawal from mtgox, which haven't been taken.

Last 24 hours:
Bitstamp: 10670
Btce: 8107
Mtgox: 5498

There is some bot malfunctioning on btce today but still that's quite a laugh that even btce's volume is higher, and gox has bots too.

Over the weekend I saw one point where gox had 2400 volume...

If you watched btce on bitcoinity this evening, you could see it flickering with thousands of tiny trades at 121.99 and 121.98 with no resulting movement in price.

Bidsum up to 13.33M. I wonder if people are actually depositing on gox now or if this is money that was on the sidelines.

Did you expect btc to go up in a straight line? Are you really surprised to see resistance around the Aug 29 high?  Should be natural and healthy.

It's a friggin litecoin clone. The feathercoin community is very disrespectful in not acknowledging the existence of bitcoin or litecoin at all and promoting themselves as if they invented cryptocurrency.

I was a bagholder once, until I hit my stop-loss at .004...

We're way up in the bollinger band. Bid depths everywhere are horrible. China's new resistance after breaking 900 is... 915.  I'm calling a retracement.

Sorry I was off by 3 dollars...

You can:

1) When entering an ask, mis-type the price.

2) When entering an ask, accidentally tick the "market order" checkbox.

3) When you think you're entering a bid, you're actually in the ASK tab (the pages look exactly the same).

I've done all of these...

RIP "wall observer" thread.  Gox doesn't have any walls to observe anymore. Yeah theres that 1600 order, but the walls used to be 5000-30000.

Did gox use chase?

Gox 's gap with stamp is only 8% now.  Withdrawals processing?  Or perhaps now that the entire market is rallying people aren't panicking about the earlier perception of a btc bank run on gox only?

I think we finally hit the "$167 resistance" but at $177 because gox is inflated due to its insolvency. The number to look for was... $161 on bitstamp.

Could you please provide evidence that gox is solvent? There are threads about it all over this forum and no answer.

Whoa where did gox get 55K volume? I thought it was dying. Do bots just like collectively losing fees?

I've found, for smaller players, the high fees tend to outweigh the the extra volatility gains over time. Whenever you take a position, if something changes and now you decide you need to sell, sometimes you can't do it without taking a large loss. I'm thinking of just withdrawing the coins I have on gox and making that those the coins that I just hold and don't attempt to trade.

Bid depths have exploded overnight. On gox, about $2M bid depth was just added between $165 and $175.  On btcchina, about ¥2M have been added. Bitstamp added another $100K. Last time this happened, we took off from $110.

It would appear that China isn't letting that happen right now.  Everything has been distorted by China and I don't know how to the read the charts anymore. I used to be a bear and then around 125 I turned bull as soon as I saw the Chinese exchange volume growth.

A healthy ask sum has been restored on the other exchanges, where sellers actually have a reason to sell their coins (other than buying back lower).

Bitstamp had gotten down to 9K and how it is back to 16K.

Btcchina had gotten down to almost nothing and now it is back to 6K.

Millions of Yuan are flowing into btcchina.

If someone can prove that China is somehow a fake pump then I will rest my case.

I understand and that's why I'm not 100% in anymore and keeping some fiat just in case. But that's not PROOF. If someone can PROVE to me that most of this Chinese volume is fake then I will turn bear again.

It's not entirely out of the question that someone would still wire money to gox.  First you have newbies that don't know any better. Then, you have deep pocketed investors who want to get as many COINS as possible regardless of the price. Gox has liquidity. Let's say they want, say, 30,000 coins, they have information that btc is about to take off like a rocket, and they don't have time to fool around. They see the order books on other exchanges and know they couldn't possibly accumulate that many coins there without causing massive slippage and accelerating the rally out of their reach, so they so go for the 30K they can see on the books at gox or that they know the giant gox bots will feed them.

The staggered bids have moved all the way up to 188 now.

They're not really walls... 12K btc could take out the ENTIRE order book. That dump used to happen every day on gox.

I think the trick is to do it during the huge flash crash and after a bear market begins. Trying to do it during this exponential rise I have found to be futile.

The only problem is trying to know when the crash will be...

I was telling someone to buy btc just a few days ago when it was 150. She was interested and asked me to talk to her about it again later. Now suddenly btc is 210. I don't know what to tell her next I see her now  . "It's gone up 50% in 2 weeks but you should still buy"? I don't know if this is a safe entry point anymore and I don't want her hating me if we dip to 160-.

The average person loves their fiat, has a high degree of confidence in 'cold hard cash' as a safe haven, and thinks that anything else is probably a scam.

When you tell someone about btc it's like initiating them out of the matrix.

Look again. China chart is just starting to break out.

The Chinese speculators collectively dump 100k. It turns to a full on market panic where 500k are dumped.

If it goes to $1000 will the bid depth fill in? Or will keep the pattern its in now and a 10k dump will take us from $1000 to $180?

I have been thinking, what if these are just sub-bubbles, and there is a super-bubble on the log chart. Eventually this super bubble pops and we see a brief "correction" to single digits or below and then recover. This would look perfectly reasonable on the log chart. Of course I don't think this is realistic but just a thought since we love talking about that log chart.

What is a $btc?

It helps to look at the longer timeframes, and volume:

Suddenly large staggered sell walls are stacked on all exchanges. It looks like someone doesn't want us to start an uptrend just yet, or they have some DEEP capitulation to do, like in May/June. I remember both sides of order books being large like this and fighting eachother in May after the conference.

Looks like someone is needing to capitulate some serious coin but there was no support to do it at higher levels. (the entire rally was actually contingent on nobody selling). So we have entered a multi-phase "btc-rocket" as I would lovingly call it because it increases my btc.  

Phase 1: Flashcrash.
Phase 2: Slow and steady dump on low volume.
Phase 3: Slow and steady dump on real volume. You see 5K dumps now.
Possibly a phase 4 of final capitulation at high volume.

It ends when you seea high volume day of consisteny huge blocks/walls/buys of support at one level. It's not just going to creep up into a reversal on low volume like we are all hoping last night. (I must admit it was a moment of truth even for me, with both my buy and sell buttons engaged).

I see lots of BTC  entering the books on all markets, continuous selling, and failed recoveries. Perhaps it's all just a panic reaction from market participants but it would make sense if someone decided to capitulate starting near the ATH too.

Arrow? Sure.

Anyone creeped out by this slow low-volume recovery and all the selling?

A moment of truth?

Just that two trends are meeting right now and there should be some action by the next candle - either a breakout or breakdown.

Don't coins automatically get dumped at the end of the month by bitfinex or something?

I still see a bearish wedge on gox.

Yup

I'm not going all in until that breaks upward.

Have a look at 4h and 1d also...

Its still possible that the Chinese exchanges are just full of day traders and manipulators. Its not like any of us have been to China (or have you?) and actually  verified that Chinese are buying up and holding large amounts of coins. The charts don't lie though, and the bearish wedge is worrying me.

My natural thought is that when there is sooo much bullishness that the only way to go is down.

Has gox fixed withdrawals? Look at the low gap with stamp.

It's the same trend of decreasing volume on all major exchanges. Today bitstamp and btcchina were around 10K volume when during earlier rally days they were 30K-60K volume. Btce is now 5K when during rally days it was 40K.

One can speculate that this rally was fueled by traders being able to take leveraged positions on bitfinex etc. But it is a double edged sword, and now they may use the same force to sell, or go short even.

A retest of 175 and then finally catching on and reversing at the old july trendline now at 155. I don't really anticipate it going lower than that but it could be possible with enough momentum.

Let's say the snowballing momentum of margin position covers, panic, and shorting causes it to violate its appropriate trendline.  It might catch 130 (weekly ema) and if armageddon happens then  maybe 90 (how low weekly ema was violated in July).

All aboard!

I miss the gox era. There was more volatility and it was so easy to make winning split second reaction trades on btce based on gox movements a child could do it.

Can someone tell me why now the volume on all exchanges is 10 times less than it was a week ago?

Whenever we hit ATH can someone please post a picture or video of whatever happens on bitcoinity?

I apologize for my bearish posts. I realize now that there were issues with bitstamp deposits and also arbitrage at mtgox which were throwing my TA witchcraft off.

I heard a huge dump is coming.

I love crashes. Crashes are my bread and butter as a trader. Every day there's a crash there is an opportunity to make a 1000% profit.

I think a lot of the exxagerated rises and crashes were caused by mtgox's ridiculous monkey trading engine and problems and we may see a bit more stability going forward.  For example a crash from 600 to 400 instead of 800 to 300.

I went all in but chickened out of using margin, partly because bit stamp was having an issue and bitfinex was trading $3 over. Now I really regret it. Is it still safe? Should I wait until the next dip?

Schrödinger's wall.

Now can you explain again how and why we are going to see single digits again?

17 million USD on Gox now.

Bitstamp is stamping to the beat of its own bull. Sometimes gox drops $10 and stamp doesn't even react whilst china and btce panic. Everyone there just wants to buy buy buy. It sucks because I use bitfinex and can't get any buying opportunities.

11.34

The countdown to 266

Nice! Just took my margin position at $233.

Full recovery after stamp came back online. Proof that stamp is driving the rally.

The Collector (of coins) strikes again.

Meanwhile bitstamp still at 251.5

Alright this time I think btcchina led the recovery instead of stamp. What do we call this instead of a stampede?

I found an interesting fractal when comparing tonight's chart with last week's "mother of all cuphandles". Maybe it forecasts something that's about to happen: We go sideways for a day while drilling away at the resistance and then have a massive breakout?

Who says money can't enter gox? They probably would still gladly accept deposits even though there are issues with withdrawals. Look at the bid sum now: it is nearly 18 million - a level that hasn't been seen since April, and in the face of all that whale dumping. The bulls will surely deposit at gox if stamp is rallying and they can accumulate at a fair price.

DBZ is Japanese...

Back in the mtgox era I used to think watching mtgox was like watching DBZ.

If you have a margin position, there are times you need to sell otherwise you will be liquidated.

This is starting to feel heavy.

Yes everyone is in a hypnosis thinking this way because there aren't any real sellers. Every sell right now (1,000 coins etc) is child's play. During a real crash, about 1,000,000BTC hit the market.

No this is someone capitulating about 100K coins.

So it appears the seller is not really out yet and he just pulls back to toy with the buyers. This could consolidate for days or weeks till it meets the October trend line. Or maybe there's a small chance of a crash even. In any case this isn't worth the now 0.61%/day  interest rate on bitfinex so I'll just go back to holding regular btc (i took a new margin position at $275)


Bitstamp doesn't always follow the smaller gox movements but does panic on the larger movements ($15+).

This always happens at the worst times!!! -_-

Anyway we might not be ready to rally just yet. I think the chart ought to do something like this:

It's happening! 

That was very frustrating. I read the chart on gox perfectly and shorted right before a $25 drop on gox. Bit stamp moves $3 and I barely make anything on the trade before having to panic buy back. I should have traded on btce.

What did bitcoinity do at $400 and $420?

The trend looks weak. Kind of like a bearish wedge on H4. That breakout was on low volume and didn't go very far. It might be time for a deeper correction back to the trendline from october. Hopefully not further.

I am closing my margin positions indefinitely now for the remainder of the rally. I might use it to trade short correction bounces but not for holding.

My impression is that selling now isn't as dangerous as it was weeks ago. Were definitely crashing into the 300s at some point - the question is when and from how high.

Why do people assume that this is going to be another march/April style 800% bubble? You are forgetting that back then the time in between the last ATH of $32 was an entire 2 years of consolidation. This time it was only 6 months. Were likely to see a 2012 style increase instead.

Hourly indicator is going down. If theres another drop the next one will not be pretty.

This is your last chance.

holy shit here comes the crash:

My case for a crash, or large correction:

1. We have not yet seen a correction to the 1D long ema. This happens multiple times during each bubble.
2. There is a bearish wedge on the chart since the ATH break.
3. The volume and percentage gain on each breakout keeps getting successively lower. Volume is very low now.
4. A huge amount of coins were transferred today. This can be indicative of sellers transferring to exchanges. So far it has been good at predicting each correction.
5. There is virtually no ask depth now anywhere, and now when any amount is added there is a panic.
6. Bid depths are not increasing at a rate proportional to the price movement. Bitstamp has stopped gaining at all since 2 weeks ago. It is dropping actually.

The low percentage up movements don't seem to be worth the risk now.

Bitstamp is normally bullstamp, where selling has been disabled and there is nothing but consistent buying.  If Bitstamp is selling then that is a pretty bad indicator.

Yesterday was a bearish day also - not a good indication.

2% away from ATH is "cheap coins"?

tonight we dine in hell at 300

This is different from the normal dip/retracement. Sellers are actually running a demolition on the large walls rather than just retracing over low bid depth. Also, over 900,000 coins were transferred today.

Hold some btc in an exchange like bitfinex and use it as collateral for margin trading. use margin to trade the waves.

On the topic of wall observation... This is UNREAL

Yeah the biggest buy I see now is 1K. There used to be 5K buys, 10K buys, 25K buys... I haven't seen those since August. This is being driven entirely by a lack of supply now. The total accross all exchanges is like 25K btc. This is definitely a danger zone.

Each of these corrections probably had no more than 1K-5K coins coming from a seller and the rest was panic and bots. Then the panic stops when people realize there isn't actually much selling going on and turns into panic buying to buy back the coins. But wait till there's a real seller.

I wouldn't even call these corrections. Just a bunch of trigger happy traders (and bots) thinking "uh oh here's the seller. now the flashcrash".

If you know could know exactly when bitstamp would come back online to bitfinex then it would make for a great shorting opportunity.

I have seen up to a 10% difference when it happens.

I feel a lot different about my trade now that I'm speculating about maybe another 50% gain rather than the original speculation about a 600% gain when I originally took my position at $120, of which a 300% gain has already been realized.  Would you guys shun me if I took some of my profits off the table?

Auctually the volume needed to sustain a given price level is based on bitcoins, not dollars. If the price is four times higher than there needs to be four times as much usd volume, which is the same amount of bitcoin volume.

It's a bearish wedge, during a low volume climb caused by low ask depths.

There are no coins!

I cannot wait till the first 5k+ ask pops up on an exchange.

Bitcoin right now is like a perpetual motion machine. Gox/Bitstamp rally because China is rallying and then China rallies more because gox/bitstamp are rallying.

I'd say it is safe to sell some here temporarily. At the very least you will get a correction to this level (or lower) if not the crash. Btc has entered full parabolic mania mode, it has not tested the short daily ema since $280 and has not tested the long daily ema since $175. On gox it takes 2000btc to drop the price 20% to $500.

daytrading works on high volatility days when crashes and corrections occur. If the price is making 15%+ swings, this will give you enough room to pay your commissions and have a margin of error to make mistakes and still profit.

I made 5btc just now on that correction.

btce and bitfinex.

I'm not on gox...

In this picture I will demonstrate how daytrading can be profitable:

I'm getting worried. Should I sell on bfx at 570 before it reconnects with bitstamp at 520?

For once I'll say thank god there is gox to support the price otherwise bitstamp looks like it would go down the rabbit hole. What is going on over there and what happened to the order book? The bid at btcchina doesn't look impressive either.

There is like 1000btc in front of $400.

I don't care what you whackos think, I'm selling half today.

No I'm long on bit stamp and short on bitfinex so when they recouple, both positions profit.

It doesn't matter if that is true. There is at least a local correction coming. Look at the daily chart and the bid depth especially.

This is not april 2013. This is 2011...

I'm simply commenting about the rate it is rising. Find one day from 2013 with a 100% rise...

Have we officially gone now from correction to full blown bubble collapse?

Right now people are clinging for dear life onto the crazy november trendline. I guess when that breaks.. we go to the october trendline? That would be around $300.

That wall on btcchina at 4000 keeps getting smaller and smaller and eclipsed by the sell orders. When it breaks who knows where itll go.

That trendline is faster than exponential. It is actually the tallest of three new trendlines that we have seen this year.

July trendline: Somewhat fast but reasonable continuation of march, leading to a breakout. This could be considered a hard support and representative of the actual growth happening with bitcoin.

October trendline: Once we broke out from $150, this became the new trendline, which seemed insanely fast at the time. We knew we were leading into a bubble at this point. This trendline is perhaps representative of the growth occuring with China/Bitstamp/etc, though it is pretty fast. It MIGHT become our support after this collapse and for 2014.

November trendline: Once $266 broke, the price went ballistic and started following this new trendline. It looks completely vertical on a logarithmic chart and cannot be sustained. This is the trendline in the picture you posted. We are definitely going to break it at some point. The question is is that happening now or somewhere down the line. If it holds, it will only serve to prolong the bubble further to $1400 or so before an even larger and more devestating collapse.

Despite the bubble poppage, there is massive bid depth building across the exchanges. Bitstamp now has 10m USD (up from 700k in the summer and 6m just the other day). BT China now has 55m CNY (up from 5m at the beginning of the rally). I don't know what to make of it. My instinct from April, looking at the asks, and the h4 emas, is to sell because its probably capitulating into 300. But then I look at these new bids and I just don't think its safe. What do you think?

4 hour chart going DOWN  , its bear time.

And here's why we're not crashing very hard. These bids have all formed in the past day. Throughout this drop, the amount of fiat on btcchina and bitstamp has gone up nearly 100%. bitstamp now has a mtgox-like order book. And then there's the dark orders.

So are you saying with all these bids, someone could still crash the market? During the last correction, it was over once we met with these solid bidwalls. What do you think theres some of those guys from the old gox days waiting to dump 100k btc loads all at once?

Did the walls look like this in april before crashing to 50?

This month it seems to be this one way flow where the amount of bids increase every day exponentially. It is probably what the trendline is based off of.

I'm getting that euphoric feeling again that I've been getting every night lately where I'm completely confident in the price, buy more and am ready to go to sleep right before it starts crashing and I should have sold.

This might for 6 months be known as the "the chance you had to sell at the top of that bulltrap" but I can't bring myself to do it...

Are there cyborgs that own 100k+ coins?

What if its $70k that I made by trading/holding btc, after withdrawing well over my original investment. Is it still insane to keep it in and let it run? I need to know.

Wtf is going on here. The chart looks unnatural like nothing ive ever seen even in bitcoin. When do I sell? I sold just 20% of my coins yesterday as a hedge and on bitfinex I can I have a loss of several grand. Its bugging me out.

I figured it would at least stay on and test that trend line for a while which itself even looks unrealistic. But instead, straight up!

I almost never make a loss in FIAT but this is a loss of coins. In bitfinex I'm "shorting" against my own coins so I get to see the amount of fiat value that the "trade" is losing versus if I had just held. However, my total account balance is increasing faster than the "loss". I should have just transferred to my exchange wallet and did a normal sell so it wouldn't be so painful.

But I'm traumatized from that 80% drop in April. What should I do see a doctor?

I heard there was a 96% drop in 2011 also, and those who bought anywhere near the high didnt see their money for two years. You cant deny that bitcoin is a high risk investment. Anything can happen So in a worst case scenario I want my funds to at least maintain the same order of magnitude, and I want enough funds to be able to take significant margin positions on a crapload on coins during volatility to make some of it back. This is what I mean by a hedge.

The daily chart looks gorgeous. It hit the short ema, and then the long ema, and then the short ema again, and now it looks like its making sum cup and handle up the trendline.

I stopped feeling so bearish once I saw that the bid depths on most of the major exchanges had doubled their all time highs two days after the crash.

I can only work with the information I get on a day to day basis.

The selling pressure here, however, is much greater than that at the $210 level - so this is giving me mixed feelings.

Something like this?

It's 1800 to 500. The 500 is due to huge whale dumpers, stop loss orders, liquidation, panic etc and lasts only very briefly before shooting back up and then stabilizing at $1000.

We haven't even seen a whale dump yet - that was just a correction because it went to 900 too fast.

Remember 100k dumps?

Or china could pull out. There could be bad news. Everyone is holding an enormous profit right now. There are 12 million coins.

Anything is possible.

Yes they're just speculations.

This is bitcoin.

The minute you think you know something, you don't.

Its not a cup and handle formation. Cup and handles are specifically supposed to be U shaped and not V shaped.

Or its a pinota and 200,000 bitcoins fall out.

I think the moon was at $5. Sights are now set at the Oort cloud.

If you were to combine the order books of all of the major exchanges, you would now get a bid of about 100 million USD. 

We passed the moon a LONG time ago.

Drawing the handle of a cup and handle (or V and handle...). If you were trading then you should have sold at 890. Now it's a bit risky and difficult to trade.

Oh my god. You've cracked the code. Every bitcoin bubble runs precisely 379%. Why didn't I think of that before. Now I know exactly when to sell. Nothing can stop us now!

Where do you cash out a couple of $M? Don't the exchanges have limits?

The parabolic speculative trendline is diverging from the linear support trendline. Each correction becomes deeper and more violent with more coins, and a longer recovery. I think the next correction will be the crash. It will be a "correction" from some parabolic speculative $1700 (or maybe $2500) back to the supporting trendline which will be at $650, and go down to $500 due to momentum. The magnitude of the correction will make it the crash.

I will have no regrets about selling half my coins in the mid 1000s. 1200% gain is enough.

You think it's going to breakout from 900 to only 1000? When has anything like this every happened in bitcoin?

Dont the crashes happen after huge ATH rises? 1000 would only be a 11% rise from 900.

I think this 1K selling was already done at 900 - the number "before 1000 because its not going to 1000". At 1000 people are more likely to go nuts buying, because it broke 1000...

And maybe 10,000CNY is more significant than $1000 now.

Market is at a stall right now. Nobody is panic selling anymore but the big money isn't there either. Price is still too high based on the supporting trendlines and needs to consolidate more. So we're waiting for:

A) The supporting trendlines still down at $630 and $750 to catch up.
B) New money to come in on Monday.

It's back.

There are 5 major exchanges now. When you see a 1K buy you need to imagine it is a 5K buy.

That 14k of buying earlier on gox was like 70k of buying - market changing. We are going to the moon.

I noticed that the H4 EMAs are down crossed. Is this normal during a bubble?

It's all a matter of perspective. If you look at the 4 hour chart, it was pretty damn ugly when the 4 hour crossed down. But if you look at the daily chart, it's just another correction to the long daily ema, which is very bullish and happens all the time in these rallies. If the rally continues on, then the level where it bounced off the ema (840) is the new FLOOR when it actually crashes. Once I saw the massive support above the blue line, I was able to leave my PC comfortably. I panic sold only 5% of my coins (in my margin position) just so that my account wouldn't be LIQUIDATED under some fluke occurence that there was this massive drop on bitstamp or bitfinex disconnected from bitstamp and something crazy happened and it fell under 400 for a second.

The low volume might indicate another correction to one of the day emas, perhaps the long one where the choo choo mofo trendline is. There was one of these double corrections to the long ema in March in the 30s. Although the bid depth is looking impressive so I'm not sure. I would prefer not because the last one scared the shit out of me and I lost a couple coins.

This trend is soooo bearish. Oh God what if it hits the orange line or blue line again and I miss the chance to make a few extra btc. I better sell everything now.  

One final correction to 1100 before next leg?

Btce is where the big swings are. During high volatility, it follows gox almost perfectly. Bitstamp on the other hand moves slowly and unexpectedly. While btce is having a 15% swing, bitstamp will have a 1% swing... bitstamp can royally screw you as a trader trying to make a trade that would be perfect anywhere else. Also, btce's exchange engine works flawlessly - the best, it has the least downtime, and you can trade altcoins. What more can you ask for? When it comes time to withdraw THEN you can send your coins to bit stamp.

Well not that I'm bearish but...

I woke up and found my entire array of margin buy orders I placed on bitfinex from 1050 to 900 when I went to sleep last night expecting a correction had been filled. At first when I saw "no active orders" I thought there must be some bug.

This was necessary in order for CHINA to have a correction to it's daily ema and the original trendline. Until now it's been kind of floating at an unsupported level.

The daily charts look horrible - EMA violated, MACD down, parabolic sar flipped, RSI below 70. But it looks like perhaps we're still being supported by "choo choo mofo" trendline we've had since day 1 of ATH break. I wonder if this trendline could slowly drive us to ATH? This would probably be the last breakout since that trend would be moving too slow to keep up with any significant higher levels.

I now have 50 times as many bitcoins as I did in April. No deposits. Yes I am up 25,000%.

It might not be due to TA though, but more about quick reactions and having a feeling about the flow the order books are moving in and when they're reversing.

Discovering margin trading helped a lot too.  I don't even really have to sell or think about when to sell my core position. I just wait for any kind of a sharp drop and then as soon as high volume support starts kicking in I buy a huge margin position using my btc as collateral. Then as soon as the immediate bounce is over I close the position, take the ~15% profit, and buy more bitcoins to add to my core position. I might not be getting the most profit on the margin position possible but it covers my ass both in event of an uptrend or a downtrend. It's kind of a compromise between buy and hold, since I'm never actually selling any 'real' bitcoins.

We have derailed from the chinese express bullet train and are back on the freight train.

I guess my TA about the MACD, PSAR etc was correct after all...

You guys are ridiculous with with $100, $200, $300, and $350.  The flashcrash never goes below the weekly average and the point of the previous successful daily ema correction, which are now at $400 and $450 respectively.

I'm not sure if I can bring myself to buy big at this moment, but you guys go ahead...

It is a strong downtrend on a 4 hour chart. The two bulltraps look identical. Right now is just like the one before the crash when gox was trading ~$1000. Once we are rejected from the 4 hour moving average, it should begin another high volume capitulation. This should be like the second capitulation drop in april that occured a few days after the crash.

Load the boat at 450-550.

Hey I think I found the bottom.

I think we're now we're now working on the "arm of death" as the final bulltrap before capitulation.

Yes it was surely breaking 1250 and having another leg up with with a solid correction behind it, before the news.  It is very interesting to see how bubble pop dynamics are precisely played out on the chart when the event was actually news driven. I would never have said we were in the "bubble phase" of the rally yet because there were healthy corrections.

Alright guys I just got off the phone with the bitcoin turbobull. He says the bear market is off and this is his TA for the coming weeks:

It appears China saved us from the "capitulation phase" happening immediately like in April. Now btcchina is suddenly up and running at full steam... I can't say I feel very comfortable about these conditions though.

5 Reasons I'm not comfortable keeping my long right now:



1. previous resistance
2. Daily moving average possibly acting as resistance.
3. Downtrend line.
4. 4 hour moving averages.
5. Volume of rise much smaller than volume of drop.

Also.

MACD, PSAR

So far every time I try to use april to predict things it has been wrong and costed me - starting with "a bubble cant pop here" and ending with "there must be a second capitulation wave here" so I am giving that up and only trading based on TA / EMAs now.

The alts always become artificially supressed during immense unexpected btc volatility while people cash out of alts to play or sell btc.  Then when the volatility subsides, they recover, often in an exxagerated manner.

So should I buy now, at 20% below ATH? I might make a whole 5% on the trade, while risking 40%. That's if I can sell on time...

Oh ya were just going to go zag straight back into the bull market from 550 to >1250 and set a new ath after the downtrend from 1250 to 550 on the down MACD with all trend lines broken. That is exactly how this works...

I think something is wrong with the train.

The train is burning all kinds of fuel and not going anywhere. How are you supposed to make any gains like this? Someone inform the conductor.

Uh oh who can give me a train analogy of what is going on now? Where is that pic of the train on fire.

This is exactly what I do. A hefty price to pay for making insane gains on my btc. I'll stop and just go long once I've collected 1000BTC.

Pretty weak trend right now.

Edit: broken trend right now.

I actually follow mostly just China now. I've started turning Clark Moody off sometimes even.

So when does China wake up? Like do they all have the exaxt same schedule, wake up as a unit, take group showers, do martial arts katas, salute the emporer, ring a gong, and head off to work every morning?

Whenever someone says "when China wakes up", I think of something like this:

My TA for the evening:

Shouldn't that be "double digits" now or are you going to stick with single digits forever?

I remember right before April crash mtgox had 12,000 pending verifications and was doing 1500 per day.

China looks for the 8th time like it might break the trend, but the latest move is on no volume.

This is like the bounce from 120 to 145 in april, after the drop from 165 and before the drop to 80.



The symmetry.

Tutorial on bitcoin: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r7wHMg5Yjg

5500 - 5620 on btcchina has been met with about 30K of resistance so far and now it's at 5555.

There's so many battles to fight now it makes long seem like a riskier position than not long.

There are just too many negative indicators on the daily chart and eerily familiar trap patterns for me to go full btc now. I went 40% btc just so I could chill out and not "miss the train".

I know from experience the best thing I can do when I'm frustrated with the market direction is to take a position with it and then it'll probably reverse,

Maybe if China were to put a flat out ban on bitcoins and shut down all the exchanges tomorrow that could happen during a flashcrash.

Chinas supporting trend broken.Next step: daily EMA down cross. Victory for bears.

All the bull talk is getting old - every 2% increase its "back to the moon" and then it drops again.

Many downtrends start slow and then arc down. Right now were still clinging on to a couple support levels on the chart.

Of course with China anything is possible, we can all be wrong, and nobody knows what's going to happen. They have messed up all our TA and seem to have their own TA like 'the book of the path of the dragon'.

I don't know why you guys follow gox - its just bots that follow BTChina.

 

A candle is forming.

I was going for most accurate speculation.

Omg the trades are being made.

There's a kung fu fight in China at the apex of a triangle.

Well it's actually still a few hours away from the apex and closer to the bottom now.

But it's in the middle of all the EMAs.

Sell the news.

There are at least 100k asks between the major exchanges. Gox used to be the only major exchange.

Yes because a $40M bid certainly isn't enough to support a price of $920.  In April the bid was over $20M.

Trying to compare this to april has been a futile effort and led me to many bad trades. There has been no similarities at all. I did, however, find many similarities to 2011.

No it had nothing to do with myself.

The question was.. [why would someone sell if there is good news], and I have an answer why someone might do that - a common investor/trader saying.

Meanwhile...

Lol I like the just casual 1400 wall sale in a single trade without much other trading going on.

Not enough action though. China dropped over 6% and gox and the other exchanges have barely responded (1-2% with very little trading.). The sells on gox didn't even start till btcchina fell below 5200.

This is strange considering the other exchanges had pretty much been tailing btcchina's every move all week until now.

We'll I'd agree that trying to play these smaller trend movements like tonight sucks and theres not a whole lot of money there at all.  However, during the REAL movements like during a flashcrash or during one the wild corrections of a bubble rally, you can easily double or triple your coins in a day.

Choo choo mofo  


Its the world's slowest (or bitcoins slowest) crash with ask an ask mountain growing, pressing against the bid walls, and inching the price down dollar by dollar. Maybe it gets faster if daily averages cross.

Whatever happens, I think we're back to regular trading with the whales.

Its just a slow grinding capitulation. Nothing to be scared of.

This just isn't the same without all the gox volume, clarkmoody, and all the red flashy flickering numbers.

I'll give the bulls a break and post something bullish:

Something isn't quite right about this downtrend. I'm starting to get some small choo choo feelings.

How are we supposed to crash with all these buyers, damnit.

What's with all the theories that every drop is caused by some manipulation group? What if people just need to sell coins? You can clearly see distribution occuring since the asks have balooned about 4 four fold in the past week. I imagine there are a lot of chinese that want to get out now, for one, plus the rally just ended and everyone was at a huge profit.

China started the dumping and gox has had a very delayed reaction. It's almost as if gox doesn't approve of the movement and wants to deny it. They tried for the longest time to maintain a support at 840 while not reacting at all to China dumps.

Bears have not used their true power since 2011.

I'm actually semi bullish now watching the support on btcchina, gox, and bitstamp.

Excuse me is this the choo choo to the moon or am I on the wrong train?

Ok who uninstalled the panix module from mtgox.

Or, from a bear's perspective: Can we break 800 already?

I have a 40% position already. I also have buy orders with the remaining 60% plus margin staggered all throughout 750 to 450. But I don't have to wait for those - there are some TA indicators I'm looking at in which I'll buy if they cross.

No not the EMA - The MACD. So far the macd has been much more reliable at predicting and getting in early on the movements than the ema - and the emas have turned out to be traps. So I'm watching the 4 hour MACD and also the Daily MACD.  

Also, I might sell some if the daily EMAs turn down...

Gox rescuing the market. Amazing. Have we reached the necessary disconnection from China already?

I think the stagnation is due to that the 'bubble pop' was news-induced and premature. The chart wasn't really in the bubbling phase yet - It was having corrections and tons of support. Then the news caused everyone to panic sell and capitulate as is a bubble had popped, plus all these Chinese who want to exit the market. Meanwhile, there are still tons of buyers. So in this scenario you have both a large buying force and a large selling force, leading to stagnation. Question is which runs out first.

What the hell? China is 10% lower from the low of last night while all the other exchanges drop to 1% HIGHER than the low of last night.

500btc bid popped up on btcchina on bitcoinwisdom and put some brakes on the chaos.

After all these insults against bears...

"single digits by friday"

So are we back in the hands of gox now? Am I looking for 4,000BTC walls and whale buys?

choo choo to the moon

I am not comfortable with any recovery that follows action on btcchina.

I do not like this bounce. It is again based off trading on btcChina. And this time there weren't even large walls and buying on gox like last time.

To the moon??  

Last time I asked it was in fact not the moontrain.  

omg you FUDgepackers

So do bitcoiners just use the same protocol after each bubble? A couple weeks after the crash, spread some FUD about the liquidity of an exchange to crash prices almost back to the floor and get back the coins they missed or sold early.

I haven't slept over 4 hours per night in weeks. I must now be clinically sleep deprived and suffering brain damage. Discuss.

Same pattern as last crash.

Fuck China. Buy buy buy.

Because they're looking at a mtgox chart instead which has a higher 2nd low and thinking "oh this is just like April when it crashed to 50 and then to 78. Now were due for a rally to 900."

The poll should have been ">9000"

My dilemma is "is this like April 2013 or like 2011"

Is it just "looking good" or is it CROSSED? Because the former is a trap.

I'm feeling bearish again. 

Chinas had a LOWER low than the previous crash.

The bounce was weak.

The order book is cut to 40%.

The support on BT China just vanished and its in a free fall.

BT China is trading $100 lower than other exchanges.

Its possible the periodic spurts of buying are just people arbing and getting out to dump on other exchanges.

The chart looks like it could resemble 2011.

I would really like to see a day with like 500,000 volume on mtgox to give me confidence that a bottom is in. I've been watching all the exchanges and all of the action has been weaksauce - no evidence of any kind real capitulation , plus they're still following BT China which is a sinking ship.

There was no 100k volume done on any exchange. Instead the volume just keeps getting weaker on every down day.

You know maybe the difference between 2011 and 2013 was the distance we were above the exponential growth trend, so 2011 had to fall further to catch it than 2013. Currently we are at a 2011-like distance. And all these factors you mention: the press, the good events, the investors, combined with China - maybe all it means is that were more and more grossly overbought, and even less able to support this price under less than perfect conditions.

It seems like gox is the only thing holding up the western markets now with its stubborn disregard of china. . I guess I need to put my faith back into gox and look for a bunch of 5k bid walls to pop up to call the bottom.

Wow I'm only holding 20% crypto and I'm still scared and feel like a frigging bagholder. I can imagine those who are all in.

Gox has the lowest volume of all exchanges today.

These people have some balls

So is that the bottom?  On one hand that is technically where the bottom should be under normal conditions. On other hand it looks like an ugly downtrend on both the gox and especially the chinese chart, and looks exactly like the last chinese bulltrap. There's a spurt of buying while speculators/traders take positions and people grab cheap coins to get out and dump on other exchanges - then the next day the volume dies and the fall continues.

It again recovered in correlation with volume returning to btcchina.. caveat emptor.

Screw this yet-another-china-trap. I'll hold when.

A) It recovers without China.

or

B) 1 hour is crossed

Seriously. I made a 30% profit in one minute on a litecoin trade and it was just one of those little green candles - I missed the big one.

I love seeing volume on gox - it gives me nostalgia. It's still NOTHING compared to april though.

Why would you count it in dollars?

dUUUUUUUUUUUUUde

I am still waiting to see a recovery that is not led by btcChina.

All of the bots and traders are still wired to btcChina. Every move on btcChina is immediately reflected somehow on other exchanges. All of the volume on gox is merely an algorithmic interpretation of btcChina (and maybe bitstamp). If there is a 20k buy wall, and btcchina went down, then gox would have a 20k sell. Then when btcchina went back up, gox would have a 20k buy. Any territory can be entered if btcChina leads to there.  As long as this kind of behavior is there, the market cannot recover from the loss of China, and will continue to trend down since btcChina is on a strong downtrend.

This is unbelievable. I cannot believe the exchanges are still following btcchina up. When will they learn?

The movement originated on btcchina. How do you feel about this?

Every exchange is now following the movements of this one exchange which is seeing liquidity cutoffs, government action, a reducing order book, and a reducing volume, and has led us to 3 crashes this month (in a downtrend) - who knows what their government will put of of their ass next. Yet all the exchanges still follow it move by move and tonight it does something and every goes 'yay rally time to the moon'. I dont get it.

Bitfimex margin trading is the lifeblood of this whole market. When bitfinex decouples, everything stops.

Even the whales there who control the price are trolls.

I'm not sure how much longer to hodl. Its only about 10% away from a the main resistance trend except the Chinese situation is much worse than last time it was tested.

I remember new egg was supposed to accept bit coin. How did that affect the price?

This isn't like April where the second low was higher than the initial crash and the bottom was confirmed. The last low was the LOWEST so far. We are in a DOWNTREND. So anything is possible. You thought before that 575 was bottom and then every single wall got demolished and it hit 475. The mtgox order book was halved in hours. Then it recovered only because it was following btcchina. The question is now where are the real investors waiting to scoop up all the cheap coins on nonchinese exchanges and not following BtChina? When you see that happen then there is a real bottom.

Hey guys were up 70% in a bear market rally which follows a dying exchange. Time to buy buy and choo choo to the moon?

75% fiat. I "never go full fiat".  I was 90% btc just an hour ago.

Trend too weak here. Drop to and consolidate at 650. Then back up to 720 and breakout to 800. Float around then continue death spiral to 360.

Just wait till the next wave of negative china news.  BT China closes would be best. Then it bottoms out with super high volume on USD exchanges like in April and the real floor is found.

That's if it doesn't go into 2011 mode, hopefully.

BTChina up 95% from the low 30 hours ago. Seems legit.

No the reason it matters to close BT China is because the other exchanges are still wired to follow it move for move. We need that behavior gone.

You've gotta know when to hodl them and when to fodl thme.

There are now two goxes

China decides to choo choo instead.

Its just an algorithm that follows BTCChina.

If it touches the trend line then there has to be another selloff. If the selloff has a higher low then it can come back up and possibly break through after a month of consolidation.

About as significant as when it broke 6000 I suppose.

So because the price is up all the bulls come out?

Everyone repeat after me:  "This time it's different".

But most of the loans probably bought around 400, which makes it closer to 20k btc.

Btcchina only does 29K volume in a day and is dying a death spiral yet all the other exchanges, which are all doing MORE volume than btcchina, still follow btcchina move for move like a puppy. Something is seriously defunct with this market. It's like everything is just a speculator and a bot. I would just wait it out until the dust settles.

btcchina needs only to move in a direction, no matter what volume - it could be a 2 btc purchase - and the other exchanges will immediately follow with a collective 1000btc of volume. This does not make any sense to me. Something is seriously defunct with this market.  All of the volume is just traders and bots following btcchina. There is hardly any real volume. Can someone explain their rationale of being comfortable being a part of this?

I mean, being long. How can you be long knowing that all it takes is for a low volume dying exchange to do something and then the entire market follows it with massive volume.  If btcchina decides to go down, every exchange will follow it down, drilling through every buy wall.

And at least 9/10 of these buy walls are not real investors but bots and traders playing the game 'follow the market leader and make profits' - it is all completely liquid and changes when btcchina moves - there will always be enough dumpers for every wall.

I've been watching all of the order books and charts for days and every movement of btcchina is immediately followed by the same movement in other exchanges.

Before gox's upward slope, it all started with a 300btc buy order that popped on btcchina to stop the downfall.

My guess is that many of them bought at 380-500, are up a ton, and waiting for the perfect moment to dump. It could have also been something to do with the issues on bitfinex.

I have a feeling that when I sleep I will wake up and the market will have moved against my position. It happens 2/3 times I sleep. But the solution of not sleeping cannot be sustained any longer.

Resently I was hodling.

Nostalgic memories of gox days where 5K walls were normal.

Apparently loaded has not taken care of all the sellers... Are you still in China???

But it looks like mtgox may be starting the decoupling.  Then again thats what I thought when this exact same thing happened at this point last week.

I guess these are all the coins that were bought on btcchina yesterday and the day before.

This is the the multiday trading range & slide into the crash before the actual crash, like last week.

Actually the green line is a sideways price chart.

Stamp. 

The 4 hour and daily chart looks terrible, but meanwhile there are all these giant sexy walls on gox and stamp. Cmon let's see this final capitulation already so I can buy and hodl (and start sleeping again).

5 minutes for quick in and out movements
15 minutes to denote the local end of a sharp crash for the day
1 hour to predict a nice breakout.
4 hour to go all in
1 day for da cold storage hodling

When I'm doing hardcore rapid daytrading during a crash I don't use emas for my entries. I use the order books and volume.

I like to observe the action on btcchina and the walls at gox while making my entries on btce and bitfinex which lag slightly. Even then though it's difficult to get the exact bottoms like you say. When things are moving fast and there's a large enough reward on the table, I don't play around over a few bucks trying to place bids exactly in front of walls etc - theres no time for that - I bid where I will make sure my order is getting filled - Even if I am $30 away from the bottom its much better than missing the $150 train. Market orders are worth it many times. I mean buying the ask. Bitfinex has some nice deep asks. But don't ever do an actual "market order" on bitfinex because bad things happen.

It's typical Stamp behavior that started ever since the rally from 100. Someone dumps deep into the book and then nobody notices or cares, the bots fill in the space which never gets touched again, and it actually becomes something bullish that causes a small rally above where it started.

We've seen in April/May/June that walls that walls of any size which pop up in front of a downtrend on low volume will be filled. At the peak of the second bulltrap in may on gox there was an 8,000 btc wall at $127 which popped up after the trend had already reversed from $136. It was filled along with about 30K of orders beneath it in a giant market order, and the downtrend proceeded to $66. On the way down there were also a variety of 5K - 20K btc walls that came into the play.

The walls are of course a bullish sign that there is demand from real investors and this may be a fair price. However, people are mistaken to think that it will stop the train.

Would it be bad taste to give someone bitcoin as an xmas gift while it's crashing?

These would be people not already familiar with bitcoin.

What if there was never any volume to begin with, and it was all fake volume in China, followed by a bunch of volume in the west consisting of bots and traders following btcchina like a zombie, and the actual amount that has entered the market by VCs and new blood is maybe $100M or $200M.

I thought it was the hours of sleep and socializing that I had lost.

Here goes again. All exchanges following btcchina's movement on 200 coins of volume. What a joke.

Such China. Much rise. Spectacular volume. Wow. See on you the moon.

But you can't see all the wisdom.

This is a good time to sell if it you missed it the other day.  Or if you like to gamble, it might be good for another $40 rise.

I dont know why people do such terrible use of giant market orders there. Both up and down.

I think someone is going to have a really bad time with that market stop order...

On how many coins?

Such swing. Much mystery.



What'll happen next?  Surely different this time.

The local spike closed before the news came out.

And this rally is still being led by btcchina. That should tell you enough.

No if it was getting ready to break out of the downtrend then it wouldn't make that pattern - a pattern of weakness - it would some different pattern. So next time it goes down and comes back up it'll make a different pattern and it wont go down ad infinitum.

Bots bought due to 1 hour cross.

I'm not sure exactly which ones the bots follow but on bitcoinwisdom I'm looking at EMA 7 , 30.

What have you done with the bears and what is with all the choo choo?

Sanity Check:

Volume:

Gox: 11664
Stamp: 18588
Btce: 24833
Btcchina: 10826

Gox wall at 666.66666 

Spartan bears fiat hodlor!

I could also point out some lower lines that have already been broken and a second upper line.

Fontas has somewhere between 1k and 10k btc.

I think you guys calling a breakout are looking at the wrong line. The current price is nowhere near the original downtrend line (shown in blue). However, the last bounce ended unusually low, creating a new enhanced trendline (in white). The pink area is a resistance. We have broken the white line, but this is of debatable significance, and we have yet to break the blue line.  Also, I would like to see some volume when we do so.

This is crazy! Someone wants to borrow 1.3 million dollars for 30 days at 1% per day interest. They will pay over $400,000 in interest!


Edit: oops thats 21 people.

I'm really thinking of filling that guy currently on top for 1.48%/day interest, but then I wont be able to trade or buy btc... this is really tough. I've placed an order at 4.99% for now lets see if it gets filled lol.

I don't know but I'm starting to get worried about my fiat with this order book (and the one stamp). It's like:




But the volume speaks otherwise. Could this be manipulated?

I've always been under the impression that i286 was the correct number and other services had some issue where they lost data.

There are many times I am trading during high volatility where there will be a large wall showing on i286 but not other services and i'll see orders going through at the wall price.

Does anyone know for sure?

This is like... observing a wall.

To the plataue! ------>

All aboard the freight train up the hill with a nice view of the moon choo choo.

Trains normally travel flat. Only in the small cap financial markets are they seen with rocket boosters and expected to travel upwards. But normally they're very... flat, and boring. So ironically a train is probably accurate right now. Choo choo...

If you were in bit coin in may then you might feel what phase were in.

If we break it with this low volume then its a TARP. We might see some weeks of stability and even a miniature rally on some hype followed by a slow burning downtrend all the way down near the floor.

Its happened after nearly every pullback - not just the last one.

I would love to see a bunch of coins dumped like that and see the market return to a fair price fueled by investor demand rather than speculation and games. If I could get a rock solid price like that which I could feel completely safe with, then I would hold my coins in codl storage and take a break from the exchanges and the charts.

I am not sure but wed find out when those coins are dumped and people have to put up real sums of money in order to support the price. Id like to see order books stacked up with giant walls on both sides like in the old gox days, and high volume. I still feel like were in sort of a low grade bubble (but not a hyper bubble) fueled by whales hoarding all the coins, and games with fake Chinese volume numbers and a perpetual motion machine involving bots and margin trading. Were way above the exponential trend too.

When people get scared about 1-3% of the coins entering the market causing mortal damage to the price then something is wrong.

ATH? ATH is $1250. How do you get that conclusion, from $710?

This is EXACTLY what happened in May. Huge walls popped up and pushed up the price on low volume.

Do you assume because I am mid term bearish that I hold 100% fiat at all times? 60% btc as of a few hours ago.

Sorry... let's make modified versions of spell checkers for bitcoiners that correct hold to hodl.

Yup we broke $700 to da moon choo choo ATH by Friday.

This is like picking up measly scraps in comparison to buying or trading on crash day.

Beertrap nao  plz kthx

Why are you still following BT China?

Is gox still following btcchina? wtf

I'm watching movements on btcchina followed by movements on gox.

This is getting like the trollbox at btce. Every rise is to-the-moon and every drop is crash.

At what point do we stop having flash crashes and start having... the 1 month long slow grinding downtrend from hell.

Choo choo to da rocks and stars.

Well its hard to calculate what the valuation should be. For all we know the recent price is pumped up 20x by speculators and china. So just because there is good news doesn't mean the correct valuation is automatically higher than where it is at now. I think all this bull stuff is the only thing holding the price up right now on twigs on low volume. I don't want to be in when the flow stops and the downtrend violently resumes.

Only on mtgox, on a linear scale, and worst of all low volume

I think I'll just buy on a high volume day. How about that. It might be above or below the current price but at least I won't be nervous as shit.

OK its settled. 1 bitcoin = 7 Benjamin's. Now let's work in growing btc adoption with a stable price.

Even someone calling for stability is a bear by bullcointalk standards. Anyone who is not 'to da moon with rockets and lasers' is a bear.

Wednesday - triple digits
Thursday - double digits
Friday - single digits

 

I don't like the return of this Chinese stuff. I wish China would just go away and stay gone. Its not natural and healthy growth - its so unpredictable, has so much manipulation, and fucks up all my TA. Btc could go to the moon or crash at any moment. Artificial, unreliable, unnatural, not good for bit coin. Its like those Chinese imitation drugs spice and crap.

Ok I solved the mystery. It's not btcchina leading - it's huobi...

It's simply where all the Chinese volume is now but it could be fake also.

This must be that christmas manipulation we were warned about?

Here I was racking my brains trying to use TA to make sense of these movements on gox and stamp over the past few days and it's been these crazy movements on Huobi all along. God damnit I am so over China right now - how long till their government intervenes again?

The Chinese Bitcoin recovery can only end like this:

Does anyone else feel like this huobi thing is a pump and that the price action on other exchanges in response looks unnatural? Look at all the sell orders on mtgox and bitstamp popping up to fill whatever buys come suddenly. Btce has stopped moving also as if they know whats up.

This is exactly how I feel right now:

Enough with the voodoo and doing lines off a chart. It would be much more effective to do some digging and find out fundamentals like:

1. Is huobi legit and not a fake pump with mostly fake volume.
2. How many actual btc are entering huobi and getting bought up by new investors.
3. How much new fiat is entering chinese exchanges.
4. If/when the Chinese government will crack down on the latest evasion of their rules.

By the way litecoin is coincidentally being pumped starting last night, due to sudden volume on okcoin, a chinese exchange which has been found to have fake volume...

Soooo... how do you feel about this being led by china?

Huobi is leading now

I concede defeat. I should have hodl.

Is that a choo choo to the moon train?

It's more of a P&D than a recovery. We all know the Chinese government is eventually going to put a stop to this blatant evasion of their rules. The question is when.

To the north... poll?   ^^^^^^^