wtf girls and guys, is 123 the new 5?

Whatever. I have exhausted the spirit of pure reason and no longer care argue about these ill conceived bitcoin-investments. 

SR was huge, economy-wise, but this isn't 2011. Bitcoin is now an official investment and those types will say good riddance to SR, will be waiting to sweep up the cheap coins.

I'm pretty sure we will go quite low in the short-term, but I also think Bitcoin has graduated SR. Let people react as they will; none of what makes Bitcoin promising has changed.  

Gox is still leading, so it seems like the name is fine for now.

Yes it is:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

CHINA leading? Omg, LMAO. Come on man.. you've got to be joking.

Volume =/= leader
Highest price =/= leader

Leader = Sets market direction.

Who is doing that? GOX. Barely, Bitstamp has quite a bit of power now. But its still led, for the most part, by Gox.

China hasnt led shit, lol. It is the reason for some bullish sentiment, but its absolutely not a leader.

Gox inflated price is part of the trigger to the buyers on Bitstamp and BTCCNY

Incorrect. The market has fractured, not diversified. Fracturing makes manipulating the price easier.

Life taught me that whenever masses do something, I should do the opposite. When Gox had power, I moved out from them. Now, I would go with them.

Just because some idiots run around screaming about it all the time doesn't mean it is dead.

Psychotic nostalgia. Can I get a technical indicator for that?

No way can this pump last if no new incoming fiat. Soon as it's gone, IT'S GONE AND WE DIVEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.

Zero trade fees are what's called "free market." So I have no idea why you think that would distort the market.

Please tell me that's real and where it is!

back to 200 within an hour.. watch

one person could be trying to ignite fear and cause more sell offs, only to buy back when the price is even lower...

same time because same person manipulating both

Here's the deal. If we do not crash to double digits within 24hrs, I will become Ultramegabulltron 3000. My irrational optimism will dwarf anything you have seen from Adam.

btw, guys: My alarm is always set to 7:45, I usually don't wake up before that. Today I woke up at 7:07 for some reason.

After making coffe and looking at bitcoin, I knew why.

I think I'm somehow well-connected to the bitcoin-crowd mentally.

That's not particularly good news for my leveraged short positions. Let's hope you're actually correct this time?

I did get a good laugh out of that though, so thanks for that atleast.

Why would the Winklevoss be selling their shares (granted, to other investors) if they're still "very bullish" on bitcoin?  Wouldn't it obviously be in their interest to purchase more bitcoin for any other investors in the fund, since that would just drive the price up further anyway?

I do know how ETF work. In fact my stock portfolio is almost only composed of ETFs (with two lines only, one from my country's stock exchange, one from the US one).


I agree. Most of people here don't understand this.

Did Gox lead that mini-dump?

Not selling because cannot get fiat out of exchange = stronger hands?  lol.

Just that two trends are meeting right now and there should be some action by the next candle - either a breakout or breakdown.

You could also have bought hobo nickels on ebay.

That's what I am arguing against and, from my perspective is what you are arguing FOR but just saying X=Right now



The premise here is one I don't buy and that's speculators alone determine price.  I believe that speculators have 0 actual knowledge and just flail about and react more irrationally then they'd like you to believe.  I know this isn't a popular opinion here and wont' bother arguing it


No, of course there are a lot more forces at play then JUST this linear process and I'm taking the idea of being "priced in" in a much longer term view than I think you are.  The ripples from any single news spread out and can have larger reactions than just the immediate future.  It seems to me that the idea of "priced in" that you are trying to define is by definition whatever the price is right now and that just doesn't seem useful to discuss.  

For example, prior to the reward halving when the price was still like 7ish there were people saying that the halving was already "priced in" and the minute the halving happened and the price didn't instantly double they said "told you so it was already priced in!" In my opinion, the slow price increase that followed the month or two after is a result of this halving and it just had a delayed effect.  

We are in real uncharted territory with bitcoin and we really don't know what events will have what impacts.  Even the most experienced trader (who can hardly handle real markets) has no prayer of accurately predicting pricing.  

Ah - people starting to talk about mBTC, I remember this last time around - the end is nigh  

Nobody's ever going to use mBTC - it's a stupid idea.

As Keiser said on RT today - Bitcoin will become an 'Asset class investment'.

I don't think it will be the currency that's used to buy coffee. I suspect other crypto currencies will fill that role.

No, that's not it. When you ask if something is priced in, you're asking if speculators have acted on it to the extent that they will. If news came out today that Amazon will accept bitcoin, there would be a threshold at which speculators would stop buying based on the perceived future valuation. So if the price jumped from $215 to $600 in two days, you could be fairly sure that the news was being priced into the market to some extent. The full extent is obviously subject to speculation -- and that is specifically the question of whether or not something is "priced in."

By your definition, there is never, ever an answer. Nothing is ever priced in, because we have no idea what future demand looks like. It is much less tangible -- especially because of the multitude of variables and the inability to isolate the effect of any one event on future demand. Perhaps the first reward halving will be "priced in" two years from now. How would we know?

Bolded does not compute. And we're not talking about rumors, but news. A lack of liquidity does not mean that speculators can't buy or sell based on news.

Who are speculators following? Are they not following other speculators?

I don't think money "finally found" its way to the Chinese market because of news circulating for months... Speculators drove the price up overnight, probably based on Baidu news.

You haven't explain how I am wrong. I never said news doesn't drive money to markets. I am saying there is a distinction between the long term effect on demand and the short to mid term effect of speculators trading on said news.

Keep thinking speculators have nothing to do with markets outside of panic selling. How would you have any idea whether it's "new money" or money that has been sitting on the exchanges? And I said nothing remotely close to the notion that news/exposure doesn't bring new money.

I don't see how one can separate speculators from the equation. They speculate on the prospect of new money coming in. Speculators are the ones who have provided the liquidity and have money on exchanges to drive the price up in the first palce. The "new blood" will continue buying at the top, indeed, and will be crushed when the market turns.

And honestly, blurting out a slogan like "buy the rumor sell the news" is simply ridiculous and completely irrelevant. What are you even talking about? Can you explain to me what you're saying, in the context of what I said?

Bears got a shot here, maybe. What do you think?  

Exakt.

  ... wait a few weeks 

crash time.

I think bitcoin is awesome but I have ongoing concerns.  I agree with all of you that bitcoin is going to explode but at the same time have worries that I don't think are unfounded.  Bitcoins are still largley paced at the whim of people with self interests at heart who control the majority of coins.  In addition you have a major exchange that probably has a huge stockpile of coins themselves. Then we see these buying patterns from the whales of big buys into walls -> large bid walls placed to support the new price. This is not the behavior of your neighbors getting into btc.

I'm still concerned about MTGox and their FIAT problem.  You're a BTC millionaire, and it amounts to several millions, lets say.  You email them about making a withdrawal and you get this response (i got this response yesterday regarding my transfer request over SEPA, not USD, and not for that much ).

Hello XXX,

Thanks for your email. Kindly note that all the international withdrawals are delayed due to backlog. We are working hard to clear such pending requests manually. We are in the process of forming relationships with new partners, banks, and taking other steps to clear the backlog. So as of now we do not have an ETA to follow up and we are unable to determine the exact time frame for withdrawals. Kindly let us know if you have any questions.

Best regards,

Mt.Gox Team
https://www.mtgox.com

This has been going on for months. I take on board what people are saying that this could be a non issue. However people need to eat, and right now you can't go to the supermarket and feed your family with bitcoins. So you have essentially a number balance at an unregulated exchange which is really just a limited liability company. What else can you do but buy bitcoins with your milliions?

Then you have other exchanges providing a way out for payments, but that takes time and patience because until today these exchanges generally did not have a great book order depth.  So slippage is a real problem for the BTC milllionaire who's only way to get his 10's of millions out from mtgox is to slowly pump it into bitcoins and try for an exchange that pays out.  Luckily MTgox, for whatever reason still basically sets the BTC price.  So what can you do? you can pump the price with your millions and patienty wait for bids to fill in on the other exchanges. You can move your accumulated BTC to liquid exchanges and slowly build up a fiat balance on that as bids support smaller dumps. If i put on my real tinfoil hat you wait until those exchanges build enough supporting bids and then you dump and start transfering your millions finally home.

I know all of this has been said before but it haunts me.  If MTGox was paying out and if they werent still the exchange that sets the price and buy / sell panic on the other exchanges I'd be way less concerned about this new price.  Remember BTC is the only real way to pull money out reliably from MTGox..

Funny how people think of something that could potentially be nefarious for bitcoin as hilarious.

A lot of USD users have funds stuck in Gox, whether they like it or not. Not everyone is able to precisely time the market to get out with a minimal loss. Nor can whales justify selling at a big loss on bitstamp. If they were to go down, a lot of funds would go with them, and that would only confirm the dangerous nature of ANY bitcoin exchange to potential newcomers, scaring them off. So yes, I think it would be nefarious to bitcoin as a whole if the largest exchange were to go down. Maybe you should look at the bigger picture of all this.

I personally applaud Gox for sticking through all of this. Even though they are not transparent, I believe they have no choice in doing so. If they were to make an announcement detailing all of the bank problems/lawsuits they are tangled up in, it would most probably cause a market panic. I believe that behind the scenes, they are making strides to solve all of this. Remember, Bitstamp is in just as big of a danger to have their accounts closed at the whim of new regulation coming through in regards to bitcoin. From what I've read Gox is trying to obtain bank status, which could potentially solve all of their problems. Contrary to Bitstamp, which is operating in conjunction with a bank.

No one has money "stuck on Gox".  That's the biggest load of horseshit that people keep pushing.  Gox fiat has had ample opportunities to get off (the current spread with Coinbase is like 3%) and people aren't doing it.  If anything, there's been selling pressure on Gox the last few days.  The spread with Stamp has consistently been under 5%.

Also, to the "whales justifying loss" point (not disagreeing with you), any whale who deposited fiat on Gox several months ago and took a 5% loss (by selling on Stamp, say) would still be up quite a bit.  Probably a shit ton.  There wouldn't be any "big loss".  We're trading over $200 again after all.

Assuming everyone was able to make a profit out of that rise, which is just not true. Sure they were able, but did they take the chance?

In my case it isn't greed or stupidity but not wanting to give mi ID to another exchange. Gox has my dox and I've been trading there for 2+ years without ever losing a bitcent, hack included. On top of that, I only store decent amounts of fiat there on mid-term bearish trends—the rest of the time I sleep with most coins under the pillow and I trade with a small quantity. Of course, for new money I buy at localbitcoins or bitcoin.com.es (spanish trader), which have sensibly better prices.

I'm still thinking the next major news to move the price will not be BTC news. Nothing has been fixed in the world economies and it's just a matter of time until yet another shoe drops.

The senate's homeland security committee, not the DHS.

What.

Leveraged Positions should raise volatility, because they up directional volume in the short term, and then crash it when people are forced to cover.

Especially with high, fixed, interest rates, this can do a real number.

Currently, since USD interest rates are higher than BTC, leveraged positions have a higher potential to lower Bitcoin's price than to raise it. Also, there is no recourse (on the stock market, sometimes, if you "owe" after a margin call, brokers can go after you) for Bitcoin loans. If there were, something as inconsequential as the Silk Road crash could cause a gigantic problem for pretty much everyone involved. There was obviously lots of short pressure, explaining why BTC interest rates suddenly spiked, and the price would decline further, forming an "inverse bubble". But this is all short-based, and a short-based bubble explodes in a far more problematic manner than a long-based bubble. Somebody shorting at the bottom is probably stuck paying interest rates comparable to somebody longing BTC during the long-bubble, which was like 300%. Now, when the bubble bursts, the price went from sub-$100 (even without the a shorting-bubble, with a shorting-bubble it could potentially go much lower) all the way up to $132. Somebody shorting at the bottom is unlikely to cover. Now, Bitcoin is $200. Somebody who shorted 10 BTC at 90 would now owe about 9.6 BTC, and be responsible for paying about 28.8 BTC, just in interest, per year if he doesn't pay it off. A ton of people in such scenarios would be stuck bidding for the same Bitcoins, driving the price up even further, getting each other even further into debt. Now, the brokerage also lost Bitcoins in the short term, as it lent to the people who are currently struggling to pay back that debt. So the demand goes way up, driving the price up, making that debt even bigger.

This is effectively what happened in the great depression, only in reverse, where people were "shorting" the dollar, for stock, when the dollar was backed by gold. Whenever you borrow something deflationary to use leverage to trade a volatile instrument, especially if you're paying high interest rates, you're likely to get screwed badly, especially if that debt doesn't "evaporate", but is actually enforceable.

First off, the only reason why the lenders lost only 9% is because there aren't that many borrowers.

Consider if there were a ton of borrowers, like the majority of Bitcoin speculators decided to trade on x5 leverage. Suddenly, bubbles form x5 bigger and when they crash, a huge amount of selling occurs due to margin calls, triggering even more crashing. Eventually, the margin calls can't cover the principal any more, and the person is in debt. In Bitfinex's case, the lenders would absorb that loss, and although it would be a pretty sad thing to happen, it wouldn't be the end of the world. If a brokerage came that actually could enforce that debt, however, then you get stuck into a spiral where the people at the wrong end of the speculation end up owing a sum of Bitcoin or USD that simply doesn't exist on the exchanges, driving the price up and/or down continuously until finally a default occurs.

The market has been moved by $5 to $10 million dollar purchases and these bucket shops have no where near that kind of liquidity.  This isn't like the hilarious bitcoinica days.

No matter what happens when the stability ends, a lot of people will be burned.

However, there are $2mil on loan at bitfinex for long positions.  If I were accumulating on a massive scale and saw that, I would squeeze those to get a better price.

looks like alot of strong hands frequent this sub-forum  

People are buying in anticipation for next week. Totally expected this move. Expect dumps when the price doesn't move upward next week.

Do what now?

$225 on Gox

And that ridiculous wall on btc-e has finally been hit.

The fact that BTC-E is so close to the Bitstamp price makes me think this rally has a real base of buying pressure under it.

Wow. And all of that is basically the first fiat arriving after the Robocoin ATM and Norwegian $900k news.

MtGox order book riding high:

Let's look back at the old exponential growth chart:




Note how with the recent consolidation the current run-up now looks almost exactly the same pace as the Jan-March boom, just more volatile. I moved the boom period over to the present run to compare the slopes:




Looks like it's targeting 500 by mid-December. With a dash of bubbly exuberance, we could reach $1000 just in time for Christmas

Who are the early adopters? What makes you think they are looking for a selling opportunity?

Perhaps me and my friends are not early adopters but second class people, but I've heard from none of us that $1000 would prompt much selling.

Perhaps the really really early adopters such as sirius (second only to Satoshi) have already sold, like he sold in 2011 to buy an apartment.

The largest holders who both came in early and have not sold so far, are maybe not inclined to sell now any more than at any previous intermediate top.


=>
Only nonbelievers sell, and there are very few nonbelievers in the early adopters, who still have coins.

The new entrants of 2013 may sell after a quick 5- or 10-bagger, but then they would have already sold after a 100%, 50% or even 20%.

I actually believe that the bubble intermediate top may form quite similarly as last time. When all "profit takers" have sold, then it really takes off. We are not even close to that yet. There will be much grinding in the mundane levels below $500, and then a stellar overshoot.

Well I came first if the qualification is BTC50 minimum per day.

Some say i am an early adopter, perhaps i am. In my view everyone adopting it today still is.
Anyway, i rarely reply on the forums. But i had to tell you i am actually trading some precious BTC for Euro's at a certain point. A while ago i read the paper, traded some Euro's for BTC (had to drive to the other side of the country to do so), and stored it on a paper wallet on a good location (i can't even reach it alone). I wrote down the percentage of my BTC i would trade back to Euro's when it's value equaled the value of a nice house in my country. I don't want to trade these BTC, but i have to, else my investment will no longer be based on logic but on emotional trading in a wild market.

So, yes, gradually selling some BTC at a certain fixed minimal price as an "early adopter". Yet not nearly as much to make a huge dent in the overall BTC trust.

-xalex

The big buy wall on Stamp @$194ish just disappeared. Market order time?  

What is the all time intra day high on bitstamp?

                bullish..........................................FALL
       bullish                                                           ...  
bulish                                                                       ....
                                                                                .
                                                                                .
                                                                                .
                                                                                .
                                                                                .
                                                                                .
                                                                             KABOOM=> 80$



Then XRP value will rise to 1/20

Almost went long.  Couldn't stomach 60+% APR on Bitfinex..    :/ 

So Bitstamp just passed it's all time closing high?  $229?

I went all in but chickened out of using margin, partly because bit stamp was having an issue and bitfinex was trading $3 over. Now I really regret it. Is it still safe? Should I wait until the next dip?

just throwing this out there, because i've been seeing you post a lot. ~ five days ago, you said:
let's not pat ourselves too hard on the back, now....

We might go sideways for a while.

thanks for your update.
gave me back some hope that withdrawal could go through within the next hours.
it's ridiculous these delays happen right during the action.
fuck gox

If almost all the coins leave the exchanges, is it time to start referring to bitcoins by a smaller unit?

The Whale.

I always imagine Bitstamp as an old codger, always cynical and the last to approve anything. It'd be nice to see Bitstamp lead a stellar rally for once.

The perks of being in Japan, mwahahahaha

With all probability 266 has become a floor. Since you should anyway not take risks with bitcoin (not invest more than you seriously, honestly can lose), now it is optimal to buy as quickly as possible. The price is rising and nobody knows how high it will rise, and even if it collapses afterwards, the new low is probably higher that previous ATH:

2011: $2 low vs. $1 old ATH
2013(1): $60 low vs. $32 old ATH.

Next week the price can be 500, then I would not buy any more, it starts to make sense to wait.

Will btcchina snap down, or will Stamp and Gox eventually cave and snap up?

Btcchina sitting at ~$403.

Just a reminder, back in April China also started bull rushing far ahead of the pack very shortly before the big crash. It peaked around $320 there, more than $50 higher than the $266 top on Gox. Will this time be different? Well this is bitcoin so anything can happen, but a serious correction is quite likely in my opinion.

btcchina is running up the wall over there and the other exchanges are struggling to keep up.  Does anyone see an end in sight to this madness?

I don't think stamp is weaker than gox/china. We know why gox is higher and we know why china is higher. If you look to other (more minor) exchanges, they are around where stamp is price-wise.

Stamp actually looks better technically than gox or btcchina, I think (double bottom)

classic bear trap, everyone here feel for it.

no this is pretty much bottom, try and catch the last few panic sellers.

Would be nice if gox  started paying attention and break 400.

So Stamp looks like its hung up at 398-399...time to sell my 1.5BTC and call it a day?

The trend looks weak. That breakout was on low volume and didn't go very far. It might be time for a deeper correction back to the trendline from october. Hopefully not further.

Hourly indicator is going down. If theres another drop the next one will not be pretty.

This is your last chance.

My case for a crash, or large correction:

1. We have not yet seen a correction to the 1D long ema. This happens multiple times during each bubble.
2. There is a bearish wedge on the chart since the ATH break.
3. The volume and percentage gain on each breakout keeps getting successively lower. Volume is very low now.
4. A huge amount of coins were transferred today. This can be indicative of sellers transferring to exchanges. So far it has been good at predicting each correction.
5. There is virtually no ask depth now anywhere, and now when any amount is added there is a panic.
6. Bid depths are not increasing at a rate proportional to the price movement. Bitstamp has stopped gaining at all since 2 weeks ago. It is dropping actually.

The low percentage up movements don't seem to be worth the risk now.

Looks like this is buying in anticipation of the Senate hearing which big players are betting will be bullish and then turn around to sell on the way up into the panic buying.

you mama is so dumb, she thought she had to sell a BTC at mtgox to buy a bitcoin t-shirt

  

The percentage difference is far from unusual... 9.5% now.

~you still don't know about "the secret" ? LOL  

Will likely work in reverse too.

We are getting into the 'stopped clock' realm - a correction has been due but every day it fails to happen.
At some point someone will call it right - personally I don't think 3600 is going to be a trigger, more likely 4000.

It's actually mainly BitStamp that can't keep up, Gox is following better than during that last surge. Probably because many Europeans trade on Stamp and they're all asleep. And Bitfinex is out of USD ofcourse.

This is gonna hurt when it ends but selling is never an option

What do you mean?

Of course it will recover, the april crash is still fresh in people's minds. Up Up Up AND TO THE MOON

What ticker are you using to get that info?

No I'm long on bit stamp and short on bitfinex so when they recouple, both positions profit.

Tom Caper seemed like an amusing, reasonable and intelligent guy.
Brito did great.
Murck did good too.
didn't care much for Allaire's embracement of state money transmitter licences (and the monetary threshold they encompass).

Bitstamp is now Bearstamp because of this:

They posted it on the webiste: https://www.bitstamp.net/article/banking-software-issues/ (on 18th Nov.)

Today is another hearing

A real correction to the 30 hour moving average... Well, "real" is relative.

Yes, we should.  We can get together with Travis, CEO of CoinMKT.com, in Santa Monica.  He brings in some of the beluga whales.
There are a few other folks I know with many many K's of coins in town too, but some of them are.... anonymous.  I'm a minnow by comparison, they just like to hang out with smart people that can speak their language so they tolerate me.

Hmm it seems we still need a final capitulation?

+1
the most ridiculous thing is watching 200coin sells on bitcoinity while getting an error page.

i prefer to get goxxed. much more fun seeing that trading engine go mayhem like this morning.

edit: time to design the first STAMPED!-memes

There has been 2,5 days that the price has been higher than now. How the fuck can you people be all bear all the sudden? How happy you would have been 1,5 days ago if you could have bought coins at these cheap prices? Well, THE TREND IS NOT BROKEN, you can still buy your cheap coins.

I know that china and gox have sticky fiat problems.

But a $100 difference between stamp and btce is a real mystery.

Bitcoin is appreciating at 1140% per year. The trendline price for November is $328 and December $404. After several months of significantly behind the trend, we did a spectacular overshoot to $1100/$900/$750 across main exchanges. Immediately followed an hourly-term bear market, characterized by (mainly) lower highs and lower lows. We are now 40 hours after the pop.

Currently the price is at double the trendtarget. You can stretch a rubber band a lot, but when you release, it starts to contract with force. Force must be applied to reverse the course and stretch it back to 3, 4 or more times the trend. The natural tendency of the rubber band is to contract to the trendline and even 25%-40% below it.

Since this bubble developed so rapidly, the trend had no time to catch up or adjust. Therefore, despite my earlier predictions that the next crash bottom will be $500ish (double the pre-bubble ATH), I will have to adjust the downside target to about $300. This is 33% below December trendline, and also higher than the previous ATH, which will act as support. There are currently not many supports between that and the new high. These will be formed as we grind down.

In my observation, the forum is overextended and cannot buy the price up. "Others" will act according to time-tested statistical principles (refer to 4/2013 bubble pop for details). There will be a bear market lasting for weeks. Many in this forum will not acknowledge it even after it is over It will not be a huge event, and absolutely nothing to care about if you are a long-term holder. But traders do well to understand that sometimes even fiat has its day.

I believe that none of the exchanges surpasses yesterday's high values ($1000/$750/$640) set about 24 hours ago, today or during the remainder of the year, (except Bitstamp at max).

I believe that none of the exchanges surpasses the current values ($700/$630/$600) during the rest of the week, (except for the following hours).

I give 75% probability to the scenario.

Otherwise the common wisdom does not hold, and 2010 is back.

How many bitcoins do you have? You don't need to tell me. How much do you know about bitcoin, compared to the ones that have 10x less? Yes, you tend to have a very different knowledge and mindset than they do.

Now is the difficult part. How do the people think that have more bitcoins than you do, let's say 10x more? Don't they think differently than you? What are the implications?

I have a certain number of bitcoins and think a certain way. I extrapolate that the guys above me know even more and better than I do. If they have figured out that this is a good time to have a breather, they will execute their will. If I am wrong, I will eat my losses ($2 million in bank is a such a shame to have). Bitcoin is a managed currency.

--Of course the walls etc. have predictive value, but the difference is: you accept them, I erect them. The actual game is, whether (or: who of the) manipulators can increase their coincount, and how to keep the price appreciating such that it preserves bitcoin's long term potential to replace fiat.

How long do you guys think this rally last... we gonna rubber band a lil more if/or when some drops coins at 4-5am est again.. I am kind've feeling the rest of Nov as a Bearish month.

Read the post again, young man.

Upon waking up, I removed 25% of BTC China (world's biggest exchange) bid depth. The guys who have more bitcoins than I do, control the bid depth in Gox and Stamp. When they remove the bids and start rolling, the price moves down however much they like.

This is how it works. Read the post again, so you understand why I wrote it in a byzantine way.

you mean bull?

I am unable to add to cancel sell/buy orders @bitstamp, might be the reason the lack behind in this upward trend.

China is long awake. It's 10am in western europe. So it's late afternoon in china.

I think it's a dead cat bounce. China is struggling -> before it was 200-300$ ahead of GOX, now the gap is smaller then 50$.

The hearing, Bernanke and Doj declarations are not prices imo. These are the best news ever.

Imo thinking within a linear regression paradigm instead of consider what happens in the real world is not optimal.

A lot of people have money @ BTC China and can't get it out. They transferred their coins there and sold at over 1000$!
They wait till the gap from gox/stamp to btc china closes, buy back @ btc china, transfer the coins and then drop the coins @ gox or stamp

One thing that I have to say when reading this "bitcoin online bar" is that if you have a lot of bitcoins it surely doesn't mean that you would know something more about trading than those who have fewer. Somebody could have just bought when they were cheap and never traded or somebody could even traded few good trades with huge luck, but +10k BTC surely doesn't make you genius automatically...

BTW. seems so far a lot more like quick recovery from correction than big rebound from crash. As I said =D

This time it's different. This time, it's so different.

We are at 50% of the $900->$450 correction. Just like we were at $165 on the 24th of April, when the second bear run started. This is not over until we go above 700$.

900 @ Gox

But BTC China is waaaay behind.

They need to get to 7000 CNY! and they are still under 5000 CNY!


This would be an epic bulltrap 
Either way, I won't lose. So ... let's go to the moon.

Shakeout successful. New money locked and loaded, coins to dry up again soon.

this is either a typical bull trap. or the most elaborate bear trap ever devised

It has already been epic.  Somehow $1000 to $10,000 seems more impressive then $10 to $100.  The distance is the same though.

It has already been epic.  Somehow $1000 to $10,000 seems more impressive then $10 to $100.  The distance is the same though.

 

It is the same percentage. Same as $1 to $10 also.

Looking healthy?
Some are just waiting till enough bids acumulate and they can sell 200-500BTC without crashing the price. Rinse and repeat.

+1

This is far from healthy. One week ago -- only 7 days ago, we were at $400. And now we are on the wrong side of what will look to many like a big bubble peak and subsequent bull trap.

You gone bull? confusing me here!

The selling pressure here, however, is much greater than that at the $210 level - so this is giving me mixed feelings.

What's on the top right... a red-giant star about to go supernova!?

k fuck it


5

I'm back on too-- after replying, AGAIN, to your other post on "sold at 600"... ha, crazy lil bitcoin 

+1 Been ignored here since I read his first few comments. I don't mind bears at all, but when they're being silly-bearish with obviously flawed logics I can't stand it.

Im scared to buy in because we are a little bit over on the log chart expected value regression line.  We are also entering the weekend but that hasn't mattered very much lately.  Ive missed the most recent train a few times but i still want to hop aboard.   Any thoughts from you guys?

Tempted to sell a 5th of my holdings to become the PPCOIN MANIPULATOR!!

They die and are pretty-much useless.

W forming at GOX 3m Chart.
Beware. This is a risky signal.

Dump @ 840. 845-850 will be the peak.
Bottom @ 795-805

Agreed. It's the "but its not *worth* anything, argument", every time.

REALLY!!!??? This technology is not worth anything!!? A trustless, decentralized, psuedynonymous account ledger, money receiver, money transmitter, with deflationary design, and low friction is worth nothing!!!??? GTFO

we are holding gains in prev. Bears territory !(rejection) ie.  high 800ths .. that alone is Bullish .. !

remember Price+Time = Value.. ie. if we stay above 800 and or near the ATH .. this will lead to common conclusion that this former rejected price is now considered fair !
ie. sign of strenght !...

+1

Yeah, I'm n00bish, but, I see the strength-- technically were still not getting 1H parabolic support, but to have corrected (consolidated) off of 900, and a couple of times now in the upper 800s, deeper pockets are pushing us steadily along the trend direction, no doubt. Like said, the longer we're here, the better chances of upper growth and trend continuation.

yeah so I bought at 819 and now this happens.... oh well printed out in paper wallet not going to touch until it doubles or triples!

That was yesterday. Reality is today.

This thread is about trading. $200 to $800 is only relevant when discussing trends and predictions, not for today's trading and whether someone should be emotionally happy with a past rise.

I see prices dropping. I notice lacking demand. I do make remarks about it in the face of people still chearing $1,000. 1k will come, but it is all about when it comes and from which place ($700 or $400).

If talking about the market actually going south is trolling, so is cheering it up to $1k.

It seems prices dropping gets on someone's nerves  

I'll guess this sums up the thread pretty much. Sorry to disturb you with facts and enjoy your day, Sir 

Yesterday, demand seemed weak and I mentioned it, also with stepping out of this market for the moment. I wake up and, voila, my hunch proved a good one. I still see some weakness in the prices. I mention it again on the board.

But talking about weakness gets on people's nerves. I get it. Talking about price going down is trolling, no matter what.

PS. I will get in at an appropriate moment too (whatever the price may be then).

My hunch says: look for double bottom. To explain myself better, I am trading on BTC-E which looks a lot worse than Mt Gox.



I'd rather buy back in too soon than too late.

Which would mean you are kicking in the turbo without a proper oil temperature, which leads to failure. I'm not sure the increased bid sum this week is not due to money arriving late to the party, the next week might be more pessimistic as we see last monday's crashcorrection effect on new adopters.

Wow damn, trying not to panic sell. Bought 17.5 Coins at 766$ 2-3 days ago. I´m nervous to lose my 13.5k$

I'd advise you the very same...

The money currently floating the prices is from both the profits that have been taken and money that was already sitting on the sidelines.  Sure, the capital can come at some point to continue to keep us up here, but for now its not here to stay without a day to day change in the 10-30% range, whether it be up or down.  The people who have a significant amount of coins switched to a significant amount of fiat and are currently going in and out.  I couldn't have believed that the money I spent in January and February would be what it is now if you had told me.  There are very experienced traders here and they will manipulate to their satisfaction.

Someone is really trying to cash out at GOX before monday. He's doing it right in steps though. Probably thinks there'd be a bloodbath on monday during banking hrs when all other bears will start dumping at max liquidity.

Would you be willing to put 5BTC on that?

I think we might see the great crash tomorrow, if new money doesn't come in and prop up the price some more. I think most people are itching to cash out, but are waiting to see what happens tomorrow. It's over, ladies and gentlemen. Prepare.  

Good, It's nice to see that your genuinely behind your presumptions.

If you check my post history you'll find out that I have been correct almost every time. Reality is more incredible than fairy tales (in this case more bull).

I think the somewhat negative CCTV coverage is having an effect in China.

So: the exchange with bigger volume (BTCChina) is looking at the 2nd exchange in terms of volume (Gox), which is looking himself to the exchange with lower volume?

I'd really like to understand how you did arrive to that conclusion, it seems pretty much counter intuitive to me.

On one hand, I agree with you long-term. On the other, they are dead right. You only have to browse these forums on the vertical rise days and see the mania. The rise is driven 100% by speculation in China, and will fall hard if it continues -- only a matter of time. Damping the flames and triggering a recession now is absolutely the smart thing to do. I say this in the best interest of our future wealth -- a meltdown and ensuing over-reactionary regulation is not what we want.

Maybe, but what people generally wish or feel has very little to do with what people write here in this forum. We're clearly in "bubble-mode" and we are not going to stay here under important support and then just go lower. We're going to see fight for $1000 and there's a big possibility that it will break rather easily which will shift a new gear to this rally once again.

It's just silence before the storm.

How many days left for 1000?

this countdown says 4 days, 23 hours,...: https://btc1k.com/ 

So you're on btc forum betting on btc price, but the bet is in fiat?

Price isn't moving because everyone's busy pumping alt-coins.
 

I'm no economist, but wouldn't most BTC owners be holding right now till the price hits $1000, just out of a desire for the psychological satisfaction of receiving 1000*their stock of bitcoin? It seems odd that the price is hovering as if there's an equal volume of buy/sell offers.

Perhaps he just needs to sell. Stamps liquidity is so friggin anemic that I just quit today's selling plan without selling any coins. I am not the only one willing to sell at these prices.

Because not everyone believes the market is going to behave as you believe it will.  It is 'pretty damn easy' for as long as the market stays approximately where it is or moves up.  Despite your (and my) belief that it is most likely to go up from here (even if it goes down significantly first) there is a possibility this is the highest it will ever get(or the highest it will get for the timescale during which the seller needs to or wants to recover some fiat), in which case this dude selling as he is is taking a rational action.

Excuse my rant and wish for the extremely unlikely but I would so like if people learned to step out of their own paradigms and stop namecalling everyone who does not see the world as they do!

That was the buying plan, lol.

When have I denied that I work for several different companies, managing their (and even their customers') accounts?

Congrats for getting out of ignore

Any update on your current stance since breaking ATH last night? if you don't mind sharing it with us.

Lol, funny enough but I find 'bearish insight' to be more sensible and plausible than bullish insight. I haven't bought back in yet no, certainly not at these prices, a crash is only round the corner, it's a fact, a law of the universe even, we both know it. That's when I'll be waiting with QtTraderbot to munch all the cheap coins.

What's so funny ?

I think they are buying alts before BTC jumps to 5k and the alts subsequently follow...

In case you haven't found out, QRK, TAG and IFC just got hard-forked, all at the same time. Right now.

Three alts that got pumped >300% in the last 2 days, and just got forked at the same time.

well, a hard fork is a change in protocol that splits it into two protocols. 0.7 guys wont accept the blocks of 0.8 guys, creating two different blockchains. not very encouraging, and in my opinion not related to price.

I see a litecoin crash coming before 50

I personally had invested significantly more money into LTC than BTC from the start but this current trend is just crazy. People will start taking profits and it will drop to the ~25 range then go back up. Don't get me wrong I could see LTC going above 100 in the next 6 months but not before a major crash. I took 50% profits at 36, 39, 41. Now I have buy orders at 26, 23, 17

Forget about the dollar value of LTC - what matters is how it moves vs bitcoin: http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=ltc-btc&market=btc-e

I have no opinion regarding the short term behaviour of the exchange rate.

Just want to point out that the dollar isn't a good measuring stick, especially in this thread.

If you're going to talk about Litecoin in "Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion" thread, at least talk about it intelligently - i.e. is LTC going to gain against BTC, not the USD.

It's almost humorous to hear long-term Bitcoiners using the same arguments against Litecoin, as many did against Bitcoin.  I mean let's get real here.  Bitcoin may have a far superior infrastructure to all other alts, but that's not really saying much either.  Bitcoin is mostly speculation too.  This isn't people buying Bitcoin to go shopping, this is people buying Bitcoin to make money.  I'm not saying any alts do or don't offer advantages over Bitcoin but who cares.  Right now, it's all speculation and the more money coming into the crypto currency space, is less money being circulated through government fiat.  Try to remember, this is about changing our global monetary system FIRST, getting "rich" off your favorite little currency is a distant second.  I say, the more the merrier.

BTW-Litecoin just broke $1 Billion market cap so call it what you want, but it was pretty serious when Bitcoin accomplished it.  Not sure why it would be any less significant in this case.  I call it a big win for the entire space.  Deal with it.

Choo Choo?

To be fair, the other exchanges (Gox and China) have historically been overpriced. China pretty much had their own crash just a couple of weeks back. Perhaps it's those which are expensive, not Stamp which is cheap.

How is BTC staying at 936 - stinks - glad I have no coins there (but wish I had fiat!)

It's 0.2% fees, not 2%.

It's 0.2% fees, not 2%.

The thing about 10k, is that it makes 100k reasonable.   

I just took a quick peek but it looks similar to the bot trades at gox.

How many would you buy if the price leveled off at 800?  How many would you buy today?

Would it be overly optimistic to call 10k in 2014 (at least as probable)?

10k in 2014.   

Assuming we don't go to zero, of course..

"Wow, such an epic peak ($266).  Can you imagine being the unlucky soul to have bought before the crash!!"

"Someday, I hope to see it passed...  Maybe this year!"

China moves down a bit, gox follows. Stamp's orderbook bids a bit thin.

Dude, enough, just man-up and accept the hit when you buy back in, some you win, some you lose.

When the crash comes, I think not many in the forum is buying. After going to $2k and crashing to $1k, would you really buy? Everybody is shitless by then. It is completely at the mercy of the new money then.

I think you're not understanding the situation of the average forum-goer.

For me (and I would assume many others on this forum) Bitcoin has made itself the majority of my portfolio.

Considering you are the one that goes on about "80%" investment in Bitcoin, you should understand why I am not inclined to continue buying with fiat beyond 90% (although I have considered it!).

As always most of the money coming into the system is not from individuals already on the forum, simply because we do not have much more money to spend in relation to our bitcoin holdings!

I'd now call the move on BTCChina "significant". Coming 24h should be interesting.

Sigh.  That's all I needed to hear.  I already keep 4 windows open.  Now it'll be 5.

Is it time to panic, puke, find the tallest building and jump, or just hold and weather this thing out?

I think we've ~roughly~ found the bottom.

Why are we assuming that this was a whale and not simply sell pressure that was unsupported by buying action since the fiat system is closed down for the weekend?

I am really curious about this crash/correction, will it settle at 900 or less ? lets all watch and see

the rise to 1K is definitely justified, a lot has changed, US regulations is no longer a concern for one.

but this market is bat shit crazy sometimes...

All i know is, I'll be a buyer when i see some really strong movements down, i'm looking for a bubble pop, b4 i buy again.

now does that mean ill buy at 500 or 1500   idk, and i don't really care.

Ah, no. I'd say we're maybe 25% of the way into "Awareness Phase". Institutional investors are just getting started. The current rally, however it ultimately turns out, is naught but a tiny blip on that chart. Figure "first sell off" maybe this time next year, then the real growth kicks off.

had a feeling we'd drop from the 1200's to mid 800s - shame I never follow my gut and got back in around $990.

seems having more than double the volume on the buyers side of the order book doesn't mean squat when people dump at market during high lag.

i thought it was a worthless coin and wanted to maybe double my btc. i got right after the start when the hype went away and everyone forgot. just got so much cuz i was making profit day trading.


was starting to do that with xpm then got too busy. more or less no ppc now but i still hold most of my xpm (and its only like 3,000 xpm)

Please disclose your position.   My guess is that you sold, and you are now talking bearishly because you are wanting to buy back lower.   There is no indication that we will crash from here.   People that heard about bitcoin through the media of the last month are only now starting to be fully verified and able to get money in.   There may be more sell offs, though I would imagine that a lot of those who really wanted to cash out have done so.   This "bubble" is quite different than the last ones.   These last two sell offs were great for cooling the market off.   We needed the train to slow, or we would be headed for serious trouble.   The more new money that is parked in bids rather than panic market buying, the better off we are.

bitcoinity just switched to mBTC by default - awesome!

This is the wrong place to ask that question if you want a serious discussion.

I'd actually suggest "yes, it is possible to beneficially regulate the money supply" but that needs to be qualified with "so is predicting the markets".


You're about to become a victim of the sentiment cycle. Strong hands become weak hands and sell to the next round of strong hands.

I think it has serious implications for Bitcoin as a currency. The size of the market seems to be reducing volatility.

If it's large enough to demonstrate a resistance to manipulation and crashes, that makes big holders less likely to dump. That further stabilizes the currency.

At some point that positive feedback makes things stable enough that the general public feels good about sticking a couple toes in the water to try this thing out as a medium of exchange... and from there who knows where we go.

　
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/publish/goutongjiaoliu/524/2013/20131205153950799182785/20131205153950799182785_.html

I must admit you bulls have balls of steel 

Bobby Lee's arrest wouldn't surprise me. How did BTCChina get away with not requiring ID verification for so long?

while there may be some legitimate similarities between april and this crash, there are a lot of strikingly unique things about this rally.

it has lasted longer.
the ATH stabilized for a lot longer.
the top was more resistant than the april rally.

Dat weekend dip 

There is a possibility that the Chinese payment processors/banks are no longer willing or able to interface with the exchanges, and thus, CNY could be trapped and ultimately worthless, leading to a complete decoupling of the Chinese exchanges. Endgame would be that all bitcoins are withdrawn and there are no more trades.

It's something I am watching, anyway.

its always the same story just with a different price.

oh ya 2 years ago bitcoin was a mature market.

 2 years ago was a joke

It is a strong downtrend on a 4 hour chart. The two bulltraps look identical. Right now is just like the one before the crash when gox was trading ~$1000. Once we are rejected from the 4 hour moving average, it should begin another high volume capitulation. This should be like the second capitulation drop in april that occured a few days after the crash.

Load the boat at 450-550.

do not trust the book it's easily manipulated, but it's ofc a possibility that this isn't a bull trap

How are the bears who sold ~700 feeling?

What about this:
A triple double top, in the same shape that's been printing on a smaller time scale over and over again.

that looks like a volcano. does that mean BTC is about to explode? 

Exactly what is going to happen to make 10's of millions of dollars suddenly run away from bitcoin?   Which is what would have to happen to see the price slide.   Other than wishful thinking, I can't wrap my mind around what you bears think is going to destroy bitcoin.   Can any of you read an order book?   After the April crash, the order book collapsed.   It is building like crazy right now.

5 Reasons I'm not comfortable keeping my long right now:



1. previous resistance
2. Daily moving average possibly acting as resistance.
3. Downtrend line.
4. 4 hour moving averages.
5. Volume of rise much smaller than volume of drop.

Also.

MACD, PSAR

You're delusional if you think there are no bad news that could bring btc down. 90% of it's value is speculation. Things like exchanges going down/getting hacked (looking at btc-e), protocol issues (big hard fork), any news of some retards getting busted for something illegal and getting paid with BTC (think child pornography rings, some dictators funneling funds to repress ppl) negative press, one of those BTC100k wallets getting hacked and dumped with one market sell (sheep), some senator in US decides to make a career by fear mongering against BTC etc...etc...etc... Hell look at the catalyst of this crash apparently it was the not so bad news from Chinese. I'm long on BTC but don't fool yourself thinking there aren't any risks  

Somehow i think all those TA with triple bottom cups didn't account for one dude just coming out and buying up everything in sight at BTC3k