After the Chinese authority issued the warning on BTC, trading volume in BTC China has reduced drastically.

It seems that now the market becomes active only when US wakes up?

It does seem to be very active. Seems like volume from BTC China has moved to there.

I'm actually thinking about my sleeping schedule. Obviously, I only want to sleep when the market is least active.  

If you live in Japan, wouldn't you be rich? 

Could it be Gox fiat withdrawal is working? They did say a few weeks back they were working with a payment processing company.

This will explain why when Gox's price drops drastically, prices at other exchanges do not drop as much.

The party is over?

Back to 800 - 810 again! *Snores*

The gap is closing fast. I would not be surprised to see Gox making an announcement soon. Probably some insider already knew something.

It is time for some movement, regardless north or south. No movement = no trade.

Will it be north or south??

You can only buy so much unless you are the Fed.

Even Legg Mason CIO is now buying BTC. Wall Street is starting to get involved.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/potential-return-for-bitcoin-is-huge-miller-4vvq72kCTrOGvs4FjaFxRw.html

Load up the BTCs while they are cheap guys!

Management tells X that X is entitled to 3000$. The fund that Management manages goes bankrupt. Should X forego his entitlement?

For the last couple of days, USD has been going north due to what the Fed chief says. At the same time, BTC has been going south. Any correlation?

Would love to hear academia view on this. JorgeStolfi perhaps?

If colour=red, action=buy; else action=do nothing.

From your posts on the prediction of BTC price, I thought you will be interested in understanding the factors affecting BTC price.  

What are your research interest areas anyway?

Positively or negatively?

Haven't seen that in a while. Load up guys!

Can you add lakeBTC as well?

You can find lakeBTC in bitcoincharts. Their BTC/USD volume is >3K BTC ATM.

I have been thinking about this. Newer alt coins claim they are better than bitcoin, and rightly so in terms of asic-resistance and faster confirmation. It is also possible a globally central financial organisation like IMF decides to issue its cryptocurrency in future. Therefore, it is possible for bitcoin to be overtaken by its successor.

The interesting part is how events will play out during the transition period. The extreme case is where bitcoin value immediately drops to 0, while its successor replaces it. This is certainly unacceptable to bitcoin holders. Another scenario is where both bitcoin and its successor co-exist for a specified period, while preparation begins for the successor to replace bitcoin completely.

Any thoughts?

If you are convinced in the extrapolation, you will be fine.

Great minds think alike. 

It means ASIC and non-ASIC are able to mine, thus encouraging decentralisation.

Slower confirmation poses a problem to the support of transaction volume.

The only point I agree to. Imagine today IMF announces its cryptocurrency and all the governments support it, many bitcoin use cases like remittance will be irrelevant. A few like inflation-resistance will still be relevant though.

It may or may not be planned. At current moment, unplanned seems more likely.

Look at it objectively. There are broadly 3 groups of people with regards to bitcoin perception.
1. Do not know or can't be bothered;
2. Aware of it and stay on the sideline; and
3. True believer.
Now, assign a % to each of the group based on their relative number proportion.

Suppose IMF introduces its cryptocurrency tomorrow, only (3) will not support. Is the % of (3) sufficiently significant to be meaningful?

FYI, in the 1940s, the closest to a global central currency called the bancor was proposed though not implemented.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor
This evolved to Special drawing rights in the 1970s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_drawing_rights
In the future, can there be a global central currency? What would be the driving factors? What would be its form?

Seems like Bitstamp is being DDOS. Something is brewing.

I really want to see how low this can go.

This is the end of bitcoin. Take heed - sell whatever you have now to get back whatever you can.

This is so so exciting! I expect more fear before a rebound. C'mon, panic!

Yes.... Fear.... 

Key points of Huobi's announcement:

1. Huobi has checked with their third party payment service providers and banks and was informed that no instruction from PBOC had been received.
2. Huobi will stop all third party payment services on 05-04-2014.
3. Huobi will ramp up its manpower to 7*24 on internet fund transfer. All bank deposits and withdrawals are not affected.

China ban? Source? Caixin? If you trust Caixin, then yes. Huobi says they and their financial partners have not received the news from PBOC yet.

It is different.

"火币网得到的信息和其他已经发布公告的平台获得的信息不完全一致，可能是因为地域以及服务商不同造成的，至于为什么不同地域不同服务商会有不同的政策，不得而知"

Translation:
The reason why the information obtained by Huobi and the announcements made by other exchanges are different may be due to different geographical regions and financial partners. Huobi has no knowledge why different financial partners in the different geographical regions have different policies.

Link please.

"Word on the street is BTCChina has spoken to their bank, and the bank says they haven't heard anything and they don't see any reason to be closing BTCChina's accounts.  I can't read Chinese, so I can't confirm it, but that's what I read about an hour ago."

That's correct.

When price at Huobi is > Bitstamp and BTC-e, it is time to buy.

Chill off. You will be just wasting time and energy if you put forth your argument while being emotional. Instead, you should be calm and argue based on logic and intellect. Ignore those who try to provoke you.

Wrong word? 

Double confirmed?

Good idea! We need to prepare for something faster than rocket though.

Something faster than rocket but slower than light.

Make it 34.0$.

50 BTC is enough to move down the price by 5 USD. 

That's easy. People who comes into contact with BTC. The driving force for the evangelism will come from the start-ups who are funded by the VCs.

Please explain

At 12:0033 PM China time, the Huobi news was announced. It is now 2:18 PM. As you can see, the price has stabilised. Now is the time to buy in.

One of the banks told Huobi it is going to close their accounts in 1 week's time. Huobi acknowledged and it still has a few more banks working with it.

The question is what will happen in the next few days? Will it stop at 1 bank or will there be more to come?

If so, we should expect more sell off.

Get some cheap BTC now, then sell them when Huobi announce similar news in the next few days.

I have seen enough in the BTC world that nothing is absolute.

(1) China government disallows China banks from opening accounts with exchanges -->
(2) Investors are not able to deposit fiat into exchanges -->
(3) Investors are not able to buy BTC -->
(4) Investors will be forced to buy BTC elsewhere -->
(5) The demand for BTC in China will be huge relative to other countries.

Guys, I see a business opportunity.

Please... Sell while you can...



I may be buying though. 

If you are panicking, you should sell everything. It will give you a peace of mind.

Caveat: I may be buying.  

To all shortists:

While the market is consolidating, buy back all your shorts now. Better to suffer a little loss than to lose everything.

To all shortists:

It is creeping up now. Please heed my advice and buy in. It makes me sad to know that you are losing money when you can do something about it.

Time to go all in.

Walk the talk. When?

Boom!!!

I hearby announce the commencement of the second round rally.

Will the lines cross?



If yes, we need to buy in now in anticipation of the huge rally.

Usually when the 2 1-day EMA lines cross, there will be significant price movement. This is because many bots use this to trigger trades.
If you can ride this trend, you can use it to your advantage.

Bitcoin cosplay girls.  

You are correct.

When 1W supports, then it is confirmed.
Then again, the chance will be missed to buy cheaply.

I was once sceptical.

Then, I thought of how money had evolved from bartering to shells to coins to notes to now digital, I begin to think what could be next. The answer is digital currency. It may not be BTC but it will be digital currency, possibly leveraging on blockchain.

I also compare between the current money system and the bitcoin system. The advantages are obvious like easy and low cost fund transfer.

Though some parties may not like BTC but technically, BTC cannot be banned. That being the case, BTC will propagate. It is like no matter how hard one tries to pull out the weed in the garden, it will nonetheless grow.

Understanding this, it will be unwise to go against the natural flow.

Probably by tomorrow. 

Is it at 12 midnight?

This is the one.

关于火币网将暂停工商银行卡充值业务的公告

时间 ：2014-04-10 12:33:08 来源： 火币网

尊敬的火币网用户：

      火币网最新信息：
      今天上午10时左右接到工行中关村支行客户经理通知，接到上级行的通知，要求停止工行为火币网提供服务，在4月18日前完成火币网工行账户的销户。

      上午10点30分左右，火币网几位合伙人赶到工行中关村支行，与支行的客户经理当面沟通了解情况。

      上午12点，赶回公司发公告。发公告之前，未向任何用户或组织提前透露该信息，请广大用户监督。

      火币网将于下周一（4月14号）正式停止使用工行中关村支行账户充值和提现(用户工商银行帐号提现不受影响，我们将使用其他银行跨行转账到您的工行账户中)，目前为止其他银行暂时还不受影响，有最新消息火币网将在第一时间发布。
   

      火币网运营部
      2014/04/10

Forget about TA. It is the announcement by Huobi that is causing the drop.

Key Point - China Construction Bank had stopped banking relationship with Huobi. Other banks not affected for now. Time announcement was posted: 12:33 PM China time.

I'm surprised how slowly the price is falling. Looks like the bad news had been priced in to some degree.

Some serious upwards movement at Stamp.

Please enlighten us.

I do know all of these.

I do hope you understand that there are so many ways in which the private keys cash of a victim can be obtained stolen by a thief.

Me too. But we need to be more understanding though. As human beings, we are all influenced by our emotions and biasness.
When started off, one may be rational. But when nasty comments from others come in, one tend to sway towards a particular view and fortify it. By that time, even when presented with concrete facts, one remains adamant on the view, refusing to admit the inital view was wrong.

Of course, though it takes lots of self-cultivation to achieve non-biasness.

1m, 3m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h, 6h and 12h charts all pointing north. The stars are aligned.
1d chart going to break out within the next hr.

My advice: Get in now!

Any reason for the rally?

How about this?
The World’s First Bitcoin Debit Card Is Almost Here: http://www.wired.com/2014/04/xapo/

Is this causing the rally?
http://bitcoin.mit.edu/announcing-the-mit-bitcoin-project/

Huobi is leading Stamp! Traders, get in now before the Chinese snaps up all the coins!

This is going to be big.
http://www.chinahotnet.com/contents/2014430_23557.html

The company just spent 1.2 billion CNY to purchase 40,000 btc for their gaming business. At the same time, they have signed Michael Ballack as their spokeman. They are going all out to sponsor concerts, car rallies and Japan AVs. More purchase of btc are in the pipeline.

Why do you say so?

It might be a little premature to say that China FUD is exhausted. For example, BTC China had only announced stopping of deposit for ONE bank. Until that happens for ALL banks, then China FUD is exhausted. Nonetheless, the market has largely factored in the China FUD.

It is now a question of when the rebound is going to be.

Until everyone cries gloom and doom, then this bearish market is over.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

You are talking about the traders and investors group. I would think that many would have heard of btc already.

It will be interesting when the consumer group comes into the picture. Circle is working on this area, I believe. I'm looking forward to the day they roll out their services.
If you notice, it seems btc now benefits merchants more than consumers. Merchants save on credit card fees but consumers cannot benefit unless merchants pass down the savings. When consumers benefit, that will be when the consumer group will come in.

This is one pessimistic comment. More of such comment must be expected before a reversal.

Better to buy in now. Seems like the major exchanges and PBOC have reached some kind of agreement. While allowing to continue operating, exchanges will accept certain restrictions to prevent over-speculation. Transparency reduces uncertainly, translating to rising price.

You obviously do not understand how Chinese business works.

In China in general, you won't see announcements made public until privately parties have reached an agreement. There are exceptions of course, but judging from the content, the timing and the involved exchanges, it is highly possible there had been discussions with PBOC.

Well, the boss must show that she is the boss. Otherwise, how will people respect her?

Not HFT, but high volume trading. No mention about banks account bans. Yes, no leveraged trading.

You really need to understand the announcement before making presumptive postings.

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

Any big impact if they become liquidated?

I wish you all the best.

How will this affect btc price?

I look at the tops rather than the bottoms. It seems like following the tops, the price usually dips?

Normal API use - No fee change.
Institutional API use (for HFT) - A fee will be imposed. Until then, no fee.

10 May - Stop all leverage activities.

What is the motivation to become an auditor or escrow agent?

@TERA and windjc - Still short?

If TERA is bullish, it means the market is bullish.

Where are the train pictures??? 

The China bad news had been priced in. No more CNY into exchanges through bank deposit. Minor exchanges had closed. I can't think of any more China news worse than what we already knew, can you? If no more bad news, where will the price go?

You are saying that the following may be potential bad news:
1. Other (Chinese) exchanges closing; and
2. Loss of roundabout deposit channels.

(1) can happen to small exchanges, as had happened to FXBTC. It is unlikely to happen to large exchanges, which are backed by large VC funding. If China bans exchanges or btc explicitly, then VC funding is irrelevant. But this is unlikely. Hence, (1) has little effect on price.
Most of the fund came from bank deposits. A smaller portion came from (2). (2) should have a larger impact on price than (1). Even so, it has been priced in to a large extent owning to the ban on bank deposit.

Please suggest worse potential news. Then we can analyse its impact on price. Thank you.

This is unlikely. However, for the sake of argument, let's assume it happens. Exchanges will then move their operations offshore. Traders cannot get money in (which is already the current case) and traders cannot get money out (which only means buying btc). So I do not think this is a worse news. Please offer counter argument.

If the price breaks the resistance, does it mean that it will keep on going up?

Circle Reveals Roadmap for Bringing Bitcoin to Mainstream Market

Bullish?

Looking at just Stamp's order book, if 460 and 465 are overcome, to the moon!

Where is windjc and TERA?

Speechless!

BUY BUY BUY!!!

But if you want to short, please do so! We will not mind cheap coins!

Could you post in point form (as you have done above) why you are skeptical on the long term success of bitcoin? I have seen you criticizing bitcoin but other than saying its success is limited, you do not seem to say why. It would be insightful to understand the reasons of failure from your point of view.

To all those drawing graphs: How high will we go?

Huge pumping in the mist of dump! Amazed!

It will not end here. Beware of another bear trap.

Here we go again! SELL SELL SELL!

The trend for the past 9 hours is quite unusual. Usually, we see either of 3 scenarios: (1) Sharp spike (represented by long green candles) (2) Sharp drop (represented by long red candles) or (3) Sideways (Represented by short candles). For the past few hours, we saw short green candles. It is as though someone (or some bots) are snapping up BTC gradually and systematically.

Below are some patterns I have observed over the past few weeks on Stamp:
- There are more buying than selling, measured in terms of trade frequencies. This is especially obvious during periods of low trades. No surprise there, since there are now more ATMs than ever and most of them are tagged to Stamp for trades.
- Most of the buying occur in small volume. Again, this is especially obvious during periods of low trades. No surprise there, since there are now more ATMs than ever and most of them are tagged to Stamp for trades.
- When buying gains momentum, a huge selling wall pops up. Often, this induces some selling and the price goes back down by $5-20.
- Once in a while, selling blocks of 100 btc were observed but not sustained.
- In summary, incremental buying was observed all the time, probably by retail investors. Sell bids were observed periodically, probably put up by institutions eager to check btc price.

Instead of a number, can the auction bid price submitted to USMS be: Last price at Stamp on 30 June 2014 00:00 GMT?

On the other hand, in economic crises and hyperinflation times, the austerity measures that neocons have convinced nations to use are precisely designed to trasfer wealth from ordinary citizens to the banks and big financial players.  If such a crisis comes, can bitcoin (assuming it succeeds) save our wealth from being taken that way?  I don't think that will work. For one thing among many, in a crisis most people (do not) need to take money out of (wallets) investment funds and savings in order to survive; so the value of bitcoin is likely to (rise)drop, due to (increased)diminished demand, rather than (diminished)increase.  

In hyperinflation times, sovereign currency decreases its value fast. People naturally turn to inflation hedges like gold, RE and art pieces. In time to come, people will view bitcoin or its successor as an additional inflation hedge. With demand, the value will rise, not drop.

697BTC buy wall at 622.71 on Stamp.

7777 soon.

edit: 1st post on 7777!

Let's go to 7778, people!

7778!

You can try breaking it. 

People really need to be a little more long-sighted.



$200m = 333,333 btc
What will the price be with a 333,333 btc buy?

With all the good news (Dell and Wikipedia accepting btc and Overstock extending btc acceptance internationally) and few bad news, there is no logical reason for the price to go south. The only cause I can think of is someone with substantial btc reserve is trying to push it down, possibly to buy it cheaply.

There are 2 ways to buy btc - in the market and OTC. The market price is known while OTC is not but OTC is usually tagged to the market price. If I want to buy cheap btc, I will cap the market price to buy huge amount through OTC. Who can do that? Institutions with huge pocket. Take note that this scenario can only last for the short term as the long term is ultimately determined by the overall demand and supply.

What does it mean for individual investors? Hodl!

This buying is very unusual. Someone or a group of people have been consistently and regularly buying for the past 4 hours now. 555.9 on Stamp might be the turning point.  

If it is the same party pushing down earlier and buying up now, it is good. Else, no good.

Open for subscription = Collecting money and buy btc?
Start trading = Buying and selling btc based on client's instruction?

Edit: Coindesk article link: http://www.coindesk.com/market-monthly-stable-bitcoin/

http://www.coindesk.com/market-monthly-stable-bitcoin/
Link posted.  

If Open for subscription = Collecting money and buy btc, we can expect substantial buying pressure in August.

It will go up substantially because GABI will be opened for subscription in August. 

950 btc sell wall at Finex. 

200 buy wall at Stamp. 

Huge bear vs small bull. Who will prevail?

Surprisingly, the bull won as the bear chicken out. 

Passed! Choo choo?

Too early for train. Let's see a bicycle first.  

Anyone knows subscription price? It is fixed or tagged to market rate?

Does anyone think the 600 sell wall will hold? 

I don't think it is stoppable. Someone wants coins badly.

$1,000 by month end? 

You are most welcome! If we can navigate through the noise in this thread, we will turn out right.  

$1,000 by the end of this month.

There was significant buying last Friday. Will we see the same later today?

Only works for short term. Long term depends on overall demand and supply.

aminorex said that the sell walls now are like a dam. I agree. The pressure is rising but ammunition is limited. When the dam breaks, expect all hell to break loose.  

Don't know when exactly, but it is coming. Why do I say that? We hear only good news now but the price is not bulging. When no more coin to spare, expect the demand to overwhelm available coins.

To be fair, the selloff from Dec - May is justified. 1. Price rose too high, too fast. 2. Bad news keep pouring on. May is the reversal turning point. But only time will tell.

There is a chance we will see massive buying later today, like what happened during last Friday.

You can see from Finex's swap activities that it is getting ready for the pump. 

I was thinking the same. 

As expected. 
Time to load up. 

Why 1 month? 

Noted but I will stick to my previous prediction - $1,000 by the end of this month.  

I'm looking at Stamp. This guy is an expert. His approach - slow and steady. He lets small players buy up the small bids first. When it comes to the large bids, he will buy it at one shot! Observe it yourself to believe. Why do that? To get the cheapest possible coins of course!

84 BTC buy at Stamp! It's a bear trap!

Will the same pumping happen later today?  

For over a week, selling pressure keeps piling up at the nearest asking prices. I would say they are placed strategically. The gap between them is mostly less than 0.1. At other times, a huge ask wall just appears out of nowhere. It seems someone does not want the price to rise. Why?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/11014508/George-Osborne-embraces-Bitcoin-as-London-aims-to-be-centre-of-global-financial-technology-revolution.html
http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1567534/britain-eyes-bitcoin-rivals-virtual-currency-rules
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2717471/OSBORNE-EXPLORES-BITCOIN-POTENTIAL.htm

Good or bad?

BUy BUy BUy!!! 

If this does not move the price, I do not know what will.  
George Osborne hopes to turn Britain into bitcoin capital

At Stamp, the key price is 582.99. If that guy can survive the regular buying (by topping it up constantly), then the price will hold. Otherwise, if he runs out of coin, we might see choo choo!

Could it be that someone from the 2011 era is selling the old coins?  

It has been there for several hours now. Always being topped up. Someone wants the price to hold at 528.99.

It's gone! 

Looking good. 
Hope the momentum stays.

600 is just too tempting on Finex and Stamp. It is only a question of when.

Because arbitrage can't catch up.   

You are trying to say that the selloff is corelated to the bitcoin days destroyed or am I missing something here?

The question is how long the horizontal trend will last. Can't wait forever u know. 

Wow! It is my first time seeing Legendary status. How to get it?

The volume is pathetic. The price is flat. Whoever is the manipulator has done a really good job. We need to give credit where it is due. 

Whales trying to milk weak hands dry. But the cow has no more milk! As soon as they realise this, they will have no choice but to buy back.

+1 This is what I have been saying too.

Don't forget the payment processing companies Coinbase and BitPay. Despite Bitcoin being an open and transparent system, we have no idea how many coins transfer hands unfortunately.

Margin call from BFX?!  

I don't really get your question.

BitPay/Coinbase for online gambling? Do you know what they do?

In exchange, you can buy or sell. In payment processing, you can only sell. If you have a lot of money, you can buy as well.

Google BitPay and Coinbase then.  

If the objective is to engineer a flash crash, we have seen it already on BitFinex and BTC-e. We need not consider Stamp as it does not offer margin trading. Since the objective has been achieved, the price can only go up.

One step nearer to getting out of bear market. If only there are more posts like this.

Trading pattern on Stamp for the past 6 hours:
1. Small and incremental buying of less than 0.5 BTC with occasional medium-size buy of less than 10 BTC
2. Sudden huge sell of more than 50 BTC, followed by small sells.

Unsubstantiated conclusion: Deliberate and possibly concerted manipulation among the big boys to keep the price down.

The next rally will be huge. In the past, it is difficult to buy bitcoin, the perception of bitcoin is rather negative and it is difficult to spend bitcoin. Today, all of these have changed. There are now ATMs in most of the major cities, perception has turned more positive and more merchants have accepted bitcoin. Most people are sheeps, i.e., followers. When the next rally comes, people will just buy. And buy they will because the image of bitcoin is no longer a problem and it is so much easier to get it now.

I earnestly ask the bears to think logically. Do not be led by the manipulators any longer.

You nail it. If anyone knows how much SecondMarket, the Winklevoss twins and a few other China people have accumulated, they would have known that the dramatic price rise in the past is not because of news but a simple theory of demand and supply. Today, the price stagnates not because of a drop in demand but because these big boys are dampening the price from the supply side, IMHO.

Interesting thought: Would the CEOs of the exchanges know the reason for the low price? I mean, they obviously know who are dumping and putting up huge ask walls. If the account belongs to payment processing companies, obviously they are cashing out highly likely due to the coins from merchants. If the account belongs to institutional funds, obviously they are trying to control the price. If the account belongs to miners, obviously they are cashing out mined coins.

This is obvious from the current price.

I know that you are very skeptical of bitcoin's longterm success. If you have the time, you may want to watch the video by Ted Nelson. He coined the term "hypertext" and "hypermedia" in 1963. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Nelson
Video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CMucDjJQ4E

I like and respect him because 1. He is a pioneer in IT 2. He presents his case objectively, without bias.

He is an old man but it is not right to say that he does not properly understand bitcoin. This guy gave a 1 hour plus lecture on bitcoin. Try doing that if one does not know about the subject.

If you think that you can offer a more balance view and you know more than him, try doing a video or at least write a paper to present your case? It would be more helpful than giving comments which are often IMHO distractions from the main subject.

Testing 480 wall on Stamp now!

Professor or not, this guy is talented, in an unusual way - making his points in the discussion seems relevant and important when they are really distractions.  

Edit: I remember during my university days, I had encountered such professors. When asked a question, instead of giving a direct answer, he would beat around the bush, hoping to confuse me so that I will give up asking. At work today, this is what some people do too, just so they can get out of the difficult situation. Even politicians, I observe do the same thing. Well, I have tried to do the same but sadly, I do not possess this skill.

I do believe he is who he says he is in this forum. But I find it hard to believe that he makes posts like that given his stature. His posts are factual, to be fair, but hardly balanced. He seems to not know that things, like a coin, have 2 sides. But overwhelmingly, he just gives one side of the matter. Oh, did I mention that he likes to distract people a lot?

Given that you are a computer scientist, we are glad to hear that you are satisfied with its technicalities.

As for economical, political, social and practical issues, wouldn't it be better for your colleagues in these other fields to comment? You are entitied to your views in these areas, of course, just saying these areas may not be your expertise.

You may have sent, but has he received?

You are quite a match for Jorge. 

At Stamp?

Some beer please to calm our nerve. 

If I need to make a guess, it will be the payment processing companies. In a bear market, there will be a drop of big buyers, so they will have no choice but to sell in the open market.

2 ask walls are observed at Stamp: 571.35BTC at 470.79 and at 599.62BTC at 470.8.

Down to what price?

When will that happen?

Mar to now seems pretty flat. Middle of Apr is when the lowest price occurs. We are not seeing lower low. Although you are fallllllling, please get the facts right. Show more convincing evidence!

Why do trolls want to be trolls? What is their motivation? Too much time and don't know what to do with it?  

I thought it was quasi-tative easing? 

I have a hunch that American and European institutional investors use Stamp and shun Finex and China exchanges. If you think about Coinbase and BitPay, they need to sell in Stamp to get back their fiat, particularly in the current bearish market. Other exchanges are mainly for retail investors who do not have much reason to sell.

Spot on! People really need to focus less on current price and contemplate more about fundamental.

Warren Buffett believes in value investing. He buys shares of companies where prices are currently low but have good fundamentals. If bitcoin is a company, it will fall into this category. (Warren Buffett is not a bitcoin believer but that is because he is from the previous generation)

And why does bitcoin have good fundamentals? Think about the world before bitcoin. Do we have a common currency denominator? The closest is gold. But despite its many advantages, it does not allow instantaneous transfer of value across huge distance. But bitcoin allows this. When the US is the sole superpower, it makes sense to use USD, despite the US using the monopoly to its advantage. But the US and by extension the USD is declining, so there is a need for a new common currency denominator.

Think about micropayments. Today, only credit cards, paypal and money processing companies allow electronic payments. Because their minimum charge for money transfer is ridiculously high, micropayments are not feasible. Bitcoin allows micropayments, since you can transfer small amount of btc at 0 fee. The only qualm I have it takes a long time to confirm.

Think about store of value. The value of btc is generally rising. It will continue rising if adoption keeps on increasing. When the day comes when btc becomes as common as gold, people will think of btc as gold, in terms of its store of value. Because the base is huge, its price will not move much when people buy and sell at any given time. There are many more reasons why bitcoin is a superior form of asset, just do some research.

I will be concerned if we have a good piece of technology but only a small minority of the geeks are smart enough to know and use it. But today, after 5 years since the birth of bitcoin, it is no longer the geeks. It is the miners, speculators, VCs and entrepreneurs. Increasingly, with big companies like Dell and Expedia, merchants and consumers are joining as well. We have passed the point where no one knows about bitcoin. We are at the point where bitcoin is beginning to enter mainstream. The perception of bitcoin has changed. The mainstream media no longer casts bitcoin in an overwhelmingly negative light, associating it with drugs and scams. To be sure, elements of negativity still exist and the focus has changed. Now it is about how bitcoin can be used by merchants and consumers to facilitate ecommerce in a low cost and trendy way.

But still, my concern is how long bitcoin will last? Will there be a next technology wave that succeed bitcoin? My answer is yes though I do not know when and what that will be. But as it stands now, we are just beginning and today, there is no technology superior and more widely accepted than bitcoin. It makes sense to hop onto the bandwagon and enjoy the ride up!

That's the dump everyone has been waiting for.

I thought the lowest point was in April and reversal takes place at lowest point?

You are right. I watched the $500 wall at Stamp shrinking from 5000 to 4000 to 3000 to now 2000. While there were several big buys, in total they were less than the shrink.

I'm quite amazed where these huge sellers get their coins from.

It has been like that for over a month now. If this is a single person or entity, the pocket is really deep.

I would be wary of exchanges. If you look at Stamp, for over a month, you see huge sell walls placed at intervals. And to withdraw that much of fiat, the exchange would require your identity and bank account. So, the key person to know why the huge btc quantity of sell limit order is the exchange owner.

Many people are speculating why the market has been so bearish. If the bitcoin news websites are smart, they would bug the exchange owners for answers. Think about it, all we can see are just the orders and transactions. The exchange owners are able to see who are placing these orders and making these huge transactions.

Consider the scenario a Coindesk reporter interviews the exchange owner. Instead of providing the identity of the seller, the owner can give a general description of the seller, for example, an individual, a payment processing company, a miner or a hedge fund. Then the community will be able to know what and who in general cause this bearish market.

I agree it is not ethnical to reveal the seller identity but if many reporters bug them, chances are they are likely to drop some hints.

I still do not think the hacker will sell in exchange. No way he will provide his identity.

No one knows why except the exchange owners. Bug the bitcoin news website reporters to bug the exchange owners for answer.

What if the price keeps dropping to say... $400? What would be your response?

You are fallling!

If you notice, with all the bullish news, Jorge has mostly refrained from posting. LOL.

Glad to see you back, Prof (honest)!

Have you read the review on bitcoin from the Bank of England? I sincerely hope to have your view on it.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q3prereleasedigitalcurrenciesbitcoin.aspx

Well, he declared that he is a sceptic, so you already know his position.

I want to see his response (from a sceptical point of view) on the publication from an institution with vested power.
But then again, he is a computer science Prof. Might be better to consult an economist?
But then again, he says that bitcoin problems are so easy to see that it is not necessary.
Oh well....

Do you agree with the points below?

I remembered I saw somewhere before that monitoring the increase in the number of bitcoin wallets is not a good metric to measure the rate of bitcoin adoption. But I cannot remember why that is so. Does anyone know?

Fun to watch. Cheap coins! 

About 1.6K dumped on Stamp.

Again, where do the coins come from? Someone ask the exchange owner!

I didn't know a single person can create 10 wallets. To be more precise, I suppose you mean account rather than person? I don't see the reason of having multiple wallets though. Multiple addresses I can understand but not multiple wallets.

I can see the number of transactions is increasing. To the moon!

Coindesk, Cointelegraph, Cryptocoinsnews whatever, go do your job. Find out from exchange owners who are dumping!

The problem with your argument is that bitcoin is not a scam. You had admitted earlier that "the distributed ledger is a genuine technological innovation which demonstrates that digital records can be held securely without any central authority." Bitcoin is the first such distributed ledger which has by far the biggest market capitalization and most widely accepted relative to the other cryptocurrencies.

Have you considered the scenario where bitcoin eventually becomes accepted and used by the majority of the people on this planet? Will the people whom you had advised hate you for that?

No one is telling you to tell lies. Just say what bitcoin really is. Explain why it is a genuine technological innovation. Tell people about the history of money. Tell them about the gold standard, how it was decoupled, why value of currencies is eroded over time though it is no fault of theirs. Lastly, tell them what you know about the potential pitfalls of bitcoin. Leave them to make their own decision. Try not to impose your own value when explaining, you wouldn't want to do them a disservice.


I will tell people about bitcoin, the good part of it, the bad part of it. Actually bitcoin itself is a genuine technological innovation, like what you had agreed. It is when other forces interact with it, then there are potential repercussions. Like what I explained above, I will first provide them the context, i.e., the history and evolution of money, then our current money system, followed by the invention of bitcoin and its ingenuity, the major actors and their concerns (here you can mention all your different perspectives, political, social, etc), and lastly, what it means to them as an individual. I will explain to them how they should respond from a cost-benefit perspective. Lastly, and very importantly, advise them never to invest what they cannot afford to lose. If you want, you can adopt the approach I take and adapt accordingly. 

I login to Blockchain.info just now and try to create multiple wallets. Can't do that.

You can have multiple accounts with multiple wallets. You cannot have single account with multiple wallets.

Deliberate attempt to buy at 50BTC at regular interval at Finex. Choo choo..................

Good timing as well. Not everyone will be actively trading during weekend. Can eat up all the limit orders.

3xx is correct.

Thr train just eats up everything, even if more coins were thrown at its face.  

400+ bid wall at Stamp. Choo choo......

You can buy more and more things with 1 btc. With 1 dollar, see below.

I assume buying frenzy for bitcoin. I don't see the link though. Why will an independent Scotland cause a buying frenzy for bitcoin?

A better alternative would be to allow the use of Sterling and Bitcoin concurrently. If for some reason, the use of Sterling is not possible, there is still Bitcoin. But I don't see there is any chance. Too many issues to overcome, assuming technically bitcoin is sound. How to price items? How to pay for old people? How to integrate with global finance?

Or exchange practising fractional reserve?

I have not been following XMR. If developers like Wladimir has been contributing, it is time to pay attention to it. Is there a website that shows the list of developers?

What the...? 

Surprising 10 minutes past and only buy activities on Stamp. No panic???

EDIT: Here comes the huge selling.  

And the pattern keeps repeating... Where do the coins come from???

Such detail. Much preciseness. So wow.

Someone ask the exchange who the 16K BTC belongs to please. I really want to know.

Who is the manipulator? Coindesk please ask the exchange.

Many ATMs have been set up. People new to bitcoin use them to get some. So the demand is always there. But for forces still unknown except for exchange owners, whenever price rises to a point, we see huge dumps by them. That is the reason it is so important to know who they are. Then we will know why they are doing this.

No one knows except the exchange owners.

I do sense more and more despair. If the price does not rebound soon, expect even more despair.

This. There's opportunity in crisis. Look at the USD swap at Finex.

Get an account with Bitfinex to see the swap. 1m USD swap means somebody borrowed 1m USD to buy bitcoins/litecoins.

Well said. Play it too hard and no one wants to play anymore.

And how much was that?

You are able to buy from SecondMarket? What is the buying rate relative to Stamp?

We cannot know the future. But we know the past and we can see the present.

What is the past? A couple of dips and strong rebounds over a period of several months. Price gets higher every time.

What is the present? VC money coming in. Merchant adoption. More positve press coverage. Lots of ATMs and increasingly so. Effort to list ETF on Wall Street.

What is the future? I don't know. But I can infer by knowing the past and seeing the present.

At which exchange did you see this?


No one will know for sure. But the exchange owners may have some idea since they know who are dumping. The bitcoin reporters really should interview owners of the major exchanges.

I didn't know Stamp has dark wall feature. 

Good read. http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-whale/

Just wondering how you guys diversify your wealth?

I read that there are 4 areas rich people invest in: 1. Stocks, 2. Real Estates, 3. Gold and 4. Collectable like art pieces and wine.

I don't really favour stocks ATM because with all the QEs resulting from the 2008 financial crisis, we will see another stock market crash soon.

Same for real estates.

I favour gold but gold price has been declining for the past several months. I suspect there's substantial artificial supply from paper gold.

Not really familiar with collectable so I will not go into it.

Obviously, bitcoin is part of my portfolio.

Where else can we invest our wealth?

It's a slow day today relative to the past few days, so just something to think about:

We all know that due to the QEs, the major countries like the US, the EU and Japan are printing massive amount of money. As a result, these governments carry with them huge burden of debts which some think that there is no way of repaying.

The smart people in the government of these countries must be thinking how to solve this problem. Because there is no way to repay this massive debt within the financial system (as we know it), the debt must be repaid outside the system. What is outside the system, you ask?

The debts are denominated by the respective country's currency. Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency exist outside the system. Hypothetically if the government is Satoshi, and eventually, the world uses Bitcoin as the global currency, there would be no problem for the government to repay its debt because by that time, country's currency would be worthless and the government would have become the single largest holder of bitcoin.

This is purely speculation. There is nothing to support the hypothesis.

In your view, what metric(s) can measure bitcoin adoption?

I would think there are 2 things to measure: 1. Number of users 2. Level of transaction activity

Unfortunately, there is no way we can know the exact number of users. We can look into the data from Blockchain.info though. It publishes the number of their users. The mapping is one user to one wallet. Note that one person can be multiple users. It is possible also that many of the wallets are inactive.
https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users

Level of transaction activity:
https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-transaction-volume

a) Get a Circle account.
b) Ask your friend to get one too.
c) Transfer money through Circle.

Before doing all of those, check with Circle that they support Indonesia users.

Yes, we need more people to come in, and more margin facilities to be available to play effectively with the whales. Otherwise, we will always be led by them.

I wouldn't trust others with my coins.

Where is the private key stored?

4 hours later.

Just starting. Enjoy. 

Interesting. So Blockchain.info actually knows the unencrypted private key?

I assume you are talking about Stamp. Last I checked, BTC-e and BFX did not follow this pattern.

Good! You are not a sheep.

Good post. You look at the past and predict the future.

Bitcoin ecosystem is growing. The price now may be low to some (I say "some" because a number got in during single digit) but all the events had pointed that it is going to get larger. Some in this forum advise to get away from bitcoin and come back a year later. That is good advice especially to those who can't handle emotionally.

This is very true. I feel like that too. That is why I try to think rationally when I trade.

Where did you get the figure from?

Windows not affected.

I read somewhere that he mined the first few blocks. Back then there were 50 BTC in 1 block. I did a rough calculation and concluded he had less than 4000 BTC.

You will need to mention the limitation in your research. For instance, many of the posts are created from troll accounts. Most of them do not offer meaningful comments. Look no further than this thread.

I wonder why it turns out this way. Initially it was such a quality forum. People meant what they say and you can see that they actually think before they say. Right now, there are so many troll accounts with so many sub-quality posts.

You are not a sheep. 

Are you serious?

You have let the cat out. I wonder how the trolls will respond.

Because he does not want trolls to dilute the content. 

To the centre of earth  

This is provided exchanges do not practise fractional reserve.

Not yet, not yet! We are starting and maybe even in the middle of it but not enough bears! We need more bears before a reversal!

Bullish or bearish?

09/29/2014
Circle Opens Doors to Global Audience
By Jeremy Allaire
After months of working with customers in an invite-only phase, today we at Circle opened our initial service to the world.

When we set out to build Circle, we imagined a new kind of Internet-centric consumer financial service, one that the average person would find enjoyable and powerful, built on the promises of Bitcoin – instant, global, secure, free transactions.

For our initial product launch, our aims were simple:

Create an experience that is fast, beautiful, and enjoyable to use. Online banking applications stink. We wanted an elegant design aesthetic that would appeal to digital natives.
Reduce the friction that so many people – even sophisticated, technology-savvy people – often experience in acquiring and spending Bitcoin. Starting today, people can onboard into a Circle account and begin using digital money within minutes, not days. And Circle eliminates the labyrinth of fees and complex user interfaces designed for traders.
Make digital money the same as other major Internet services for consumers: instant and free. We wanted our service to be instant for onboarding, instant for depositing and converting money, and nearly instant for sending and receiving payments – anywhere on the planet.
Global Support

In addition to the core features and goals above, Circle is now available in seven languages, which collectively cover approximately 40% of the world’s population. Circle’s site, product, and customer support content are all available in English, Chinese, Japanese, Portuguese (Brazilian), Spanish (Latin American), German, and French – and we will add more languages as we grow. It’s a good start, but we plan to add far more capabilities for international customers over time.

Insurance Clarity

Back in May, we were excited to announce that we were offering customers insurance from theft on 100 percent of their bitcoin account balances. Since May, we’ve continued to build out our insurance program, acquiring more underwriters for both our online and cold storage / offline assets. Today we offer this unprecedented insurance coverage to every Circle customer. Circle customers will have 100 percent coverage of their full deposit value. Our insurance broker is Marsh, one of the largest insurance brokers in the world. The underwriters for this insurance are all highly-rated. Insurance on Bitcoin is a new market, and we’re proud to be a market maker in establishing this valuable service to users of digital assets. And this 100 percent insurance covers deposits for any user in the world holding bitcoin with Circle.

Native Apps Imminent

In addition to the general availability of Circle, today at the Sibos international banking conference, we had an opportunity to sneak peak our new iOS and Android native apps. While these are still in beta and not part of today’s product release, they’re a critical piece of the puzzle and companions to Circle’s Web-based service. We’ve been hard at work on these apps and hope to make them available to everyone soon.

Thank You!

Over the past months, it has been exciting to see the Circle team grow and to see our product, operations, support, legal and compliance, security, and finance teams execute on launching our service. Importantly, though, we are just getting started. What we’ve delivered today is the beginning of an arc of innovation that we hope to keep delivering in the years to come.

We’re excited to invite you to become a customer, and we look forward to your feedback, questions, and comments. We have a lot to build and learn, and we’re excited to iterate in the market together.

Thanks and enjoy Circle!

- The Circle Team

https://www.circle.com/en/2014/09/29/circle-opens-doors-global-audience

I would think this is bullish.

Market seems to react positively to the news.

Refueling the train now. Leaving in a short while...

Within an hour, the news is virally reported everywhere. 
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-09-29/circle-debuts-bitcoin-accounts-for-mainstream-users
http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/blog/startups/2014/09/boston-based-circle-launches-service-that-allows.html
https://gigaom.com/2014/09/29/circle-opens-its-global-bitcoin-service-to-the-public-in-7-languages/
http://thenextweb.com/insider/2014/09/29/bitcoin-banking-service-circle-opens-everyone/

Give it some time, dude. It's like what... only 2 hours since the announcement?

Are you officially bearish now?

Good read.

Before the read, I was wondering why huge ask walls appear at regular intervals after a huge dump. Why sell low when you can sell high?

After the read, I am aware that one possibility is the manipulators are at the Suppressing Prices stage. I don't know about this for sure but this offers a real and logical explanation.

After the Suppressing Prices stage, the following stages follow: (1) Test Pump, (2) Actual Pump, (3) Shakeouts, (4) Re-allocation and distribution, and (5) Exiting - The Dump.

Now, the capitalisation of DOGE is much smaller than BTC but that does not mean that BTC cannot be manipulated. What is needed is just a bigger purse, that is all. And this is certainly possible.

I mentioned that this is only a theory and I cannot know for sure. But there is a way to know for sure. If and only if the exchange operators are willing to provide insights as they know who every single buyer and seller are, the bitcoin community will be able to know the cause of the perceived current bear market.

Ever since Circle's launch a few days ago, I notice the trade pattern on Stamp has changed.

Huge dumps are still observed from time to time, but the frequency is relatively lesser.
 
In the past, whenever there is a slow and sustained upward movement, it will always be followed by huge dumps. Now, the huge dumps occur at a lesser frequency (as above) and despite the price drop, the upward momentum is unaffected.

Despite the relatively stable price, the volume is signficantly higher. Right now, Stamp's daily volume is 14,299BTC. The average is about 4,000BTC when the price is stable.

To be sure, there are still huge ask walls but they seem to be eroded steadily.

Whether Circle's launch marks a trend reversal remains to be seen. We know however given its simplicity, Circle has opened up a whole new audience to bitcoin - the less tech savvy. This creates a new demand and puts a significant pressure on the bears.

Based on the pattern for the past few days, the upward momentum will continue.

I'm watching but didn't see anything peculiar. What did you see?

If this pattern persists, it would seem that the bears have split ranks internally, with some becoming bulls.

670BTC dump on Stamp.

No kidding.

You sure you want to do that? What if the exchanges are insolvent?

If a bot can pump up the price, why can't a bot dump down the price?

As I had said multiple times before, the major exchange operators will know why the price slide since they know who are selling. Sadly, these bitcoin news outlet do not interview them.

$339 seems to hold.

Seems you are a donator. Did you donate ripple?

Is double bottom bullish or bearish?

Does it matter the second bottom is lower or higher than the first?

This rebound seems too strong to be a bear trap...

No manipulation?

Give me a break man!

It is kinda sad actually.

We are really the pawns in this game. The manipulators owning 30,000BTC (even after the sell down from $1,200 to $300) is the master. We are nothing more than the pawns being manipulated.

I hope this happens only in the stage, when bitcoin is in its growing phase. I cannot imagine seeing this when half the world is using bitcoins for daily transaction.

In the midst of the 30,000BTC wall frenzy, I want to ask why everyone is buying into that wall? Aren't we suppose to be in a bear market now?

Sell sell sell!

Hint of the beginning of the next bubble?

They are called dolphins.

TA does not work in bitcoinland. Identifying and following the whales does.

But why are people buying instead of dumping?

We went all the way down from $1,200 to $300. We are in a bear market.

Just because a 30,000BTC sell wall appears out of nowhere, everyone needs to buy into that wall?

Makes no sense to me!

Now that the sell wall is gone, we are going down.

How ironic! 

Perhaps.

From the tearing down of the 30,000BTC wall, it is clear that there is a huge demand from multiple buyers. From the pattern of buying, some of them buy little, others buy a lot.

But we need to bear in mind that we had gone down from $1,200 to $300. I am inclined to believe that this is the work of the minority, who might be manipulators.

Whether or not we continue the downtrend will depend on the plan of these manipulators.

You don't do that to cash out, unless you want to attract attention. You will call up someone for OTC trade. It is clear that somebody did that with a motive.

I am curious how much more BTC that person has. If no more, it is likely that we will only go up from here.

Please state your basis. Is it a hunch?

I never thought of it but you are right!  

What people seem to ignore is that this is the manipulators' market. The price at any point in time is controlled to a large extent by the manipulators, otherwise known as the bearwhale currently.

No one knows when the price will be cheap. No one knows when we will trading at what level.

Who will know? The bearwhale.

Please justify.

Wall at 363 Stamp.

I stopped believing at TA when I saw this.

How do you TA this chart?

What is the minimum time frame for TA?

From the 30k sell wall perhaps?

Prof Jorge,

This is for you: The Math Behind Bitcoin.

I wonder if Satoshi will win the Nobel prize one day?

EDIT: Meanwhile, serious mainstream publication has shifted their perception of bitcoin from libertarian and criminal activities to how the financial industry can innovate from the blockchain technology.

The maths is not invented by Satoshi and Satoshi has cleverly used it in his blockchain creation which can potentially disrupt the financial industry. That's applying theory to improve how things work in real life.

Actually, not just the Economist, other serious maintream publication like nytime and guardian have shifted their perception as well. It comes at a time when prominent IT figures like Bill Gates have commented positively and the top 1% businessmen like Li Ka-Shing have invested in bitcoin companies.

Just be aware of what you advise people. You will not want them to hate you in future.

This is really an interesting question. What is stopping the creation of Internet 2, Internet 3, and so on?

And yes, this question is really answering to the previous question, similar to the other thread on "Answering the question with another question".  

I should clarify myself. It is possible that there were attempts to create Internet 1, Internet 2, and so on. They just did not catch on, and scale to the Internet that we know today.

Using the above analogy, there were, are, and will be attempts to create Bitcoin 1, Bitcoin 2 or in general terms, cryptocurrencies. They just did not, have not, and possibly will not catch on, and scale to the Bitcoin that we know today.

The next question is: Why is that so? To answer this, try to find out why alternative networks did not catch on, and scale to the Internet that we know today.

The Bank of Japan just announced QE. Yet another reason for the existence of Bitcoin.

Internet is the main network. All others are the local nets.

Bitcoin is the mainchain. All others are sidechain.

Very possible.

+1. Based on what he said, we should ignore that elderly because his words have no substance.

It is awfully painful to read that self-contradicting statement.

Any basis for that opinion?

There is inflation because there is money. The purpose of money primarily is to facilitate trade. That is not to say trade cannot happen without money. Money just makes trading easier.

From that perspective, there is no reason for inflation at all. This is because money is just an intermediary for the exchange of goods.

Now, on the argument that deflation leads to negative growth, that is true to a certain extent but mostly because the basis of growth is consumption, to the extent of excessiveness, regardless of factors like environmental degradation which may lead to our eventual extinction because of climate change for example.

Capitalism when driven by greed will lead to our eventual demise because there is no limit to greed. The only way out is to realise this before it is too late.

The concept is awesome. If it can be more user-friendly, it has the potential to become the first bitcoin killer app. We will know that has happened when it goes viral over social and mainstream media.

I should not be feeding the troll but I have to say I like your posted images. But please try to avoid reposting images, it just goes to show that you are lazy and not working on new ones. You are not paid for reposting images, anyone can do that.

Don't you have KPIs to meet? I'm sure reposting images are not part of them, working on images are, right?

If you tell me who your sponsors are, I will need to report this to them. Their hired troll is not working as hard as he should be!

Good to see that you have been working on new images!



我们都爱比特币！

Go start your own thread: Wall Observer XRP/USD - Ripple price movement tracking & discussion.

This is getting out of hand! OMG!