In other news, 24 hours and still no sign of my 10.8 BTC from Gox withdrawal.

Is it worth to open a ticket or should I just wait?

Yep, it's there. Apparently it is large transaction size and can't be processed.

Do I need to contact Gox to double spend it or they'll do it on their own?

awesome site. How do they identify gox-transactions?

this one is quite funny: http://skanner.net/MtGox/getaddys.php?txid=f0c654525ce92daea9770d959e588c852fd3b4ed0cb9f380c94ae8d396b7bc4a

Dude.

I believe that he is saying he wants BTC prices to go up.. by wishing such...


we could just hmm, hmmmm , hmmm, hmmmmm , hmmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm hmmmm , hmmm, hmmmmm , hmmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm hmmmm , hmmm, hmmmmm , hmmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm hmmmm , hmmm, hmmmmm , hmmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm


Does this make more sense? hmmmmm?

Your lines do seem to be kind of arbitrary.. yet, I have NO IDEAS about how to draw lines or to project based on these kinds of lines.... except maybe if the price is stable for a while then probably it is going to break out in one direction or another...

I though that it would just be fun to translate what you were saying into a wish... hehehe... ... And, I share your wish...


NOW.. are you suggesting that we are going to go into the $550 to $650 range within the next few days?... and it seems very plausible that we need to return BTC prices to these levels in the near future... and then soon thereafter go to $650 to $750 and then $750 to $850.. and maybe linger within that price range until about the end of July-ish.. before we head moonwards, maybe to the $1500 price territory... ?  If NOT $1500 by July, maybe $1500-ish at some point before the end of the calendar year?

"We're in a downwards trend. It doesn't matter that buying pressure exceeded 30k BTC of selling pressure at 300 and the price is going up. The market and the price are just too stupid to realize that we're not in a trend reversal!"

 

It really is funny. I've been insulted/made fun of for my bearishness since the bubble popped at the end of 2013. Being bearish used to be the contrarian position. Nowadays, being bullish is the contrarian play, just look how people will continuously attack you for stating relatively reasonable positions (that the conditions under which 275 has happened may not repeat again).

I will leave this place soon. Bitcoin is dead, it's only down from here and i sold everything i got quite a while ago so there is nothing for me here anymore.
I tried to help the few delusional bulls who just won't give up but they don't appreciate my warnings very much. Ah well, your money. I don't care really.
I'll come back every 50 dollar drop for some entertainment. So long and thanks for buying my coins at 400. Poor schmucks.

Good luck with your pump and dump coin.

Excellent example of confirmation bias. Your bullish line is weak, little evidence it gives support. The bottoms in this chart could just as well be an inverted dish, which would mean we would be moving sideways for some months and then go down again for another 2 years..

what treshold this is resist...

1w chart on stamp looks eerily similar to May 2012. If we follow a similar pattern we will be looking at a 12-24 months of big price increases well above $10k and even as high as $100k.

c'mon he's giving you 3 choices 1 of which (III) is very bearish.

I deleted the comment after I reviewed the chart more. It's just a small visual pane. Honestly, my bad.

   You're welcome

8up, the link is for you too

Wait a second, is that graphic actually saying the total supply is 100 billion, but the available supply is *only* 30 billion??

Thanks dude, that makes more sense.

This may be a losing battle, but it's one I intend to fight till the end.

"They can take our FREEDOM, but they'll never take our BITCOIN!"

Those make me paranoid & wary too!!!!  

chessnut line? wtf is this TA?  

New poll please:
Moon within 5 months
Yes
No

Awesome!

anyone else notice that the recent bottom in price, 'so-called market cap (value of total coins issued) was also a test of the market cap at old ATH $266 price ~$2.5 bill.?

Seems like that will have made a very solid bottom (I'm calling it a top for the current crop of fiat currencies).

Yes.

Edit: Do you have access to any marketcap based charts or raw data?

So...what do people think the price will do this weekend?



*innocent gaze*

I love those charts where the USD is priced in BTC. Really makes it look like a failing currency. But you gotta keep in mind that Bitcoin is simply still sweeping up the obvious top or cream off of the whole FIAT cake.

waht do you guys think, will we going down or up?

TLDR: Anyway, having lived under both neocon and socialist-Keynesian governments, I am now all for the latter, sorry.  I cannot understand how any country could believe that "austerity" is a good thing.  I would vote for Lula and Dilma again if I could.  I hope that the new Greece government can be as successful as Lula's -- in spite of not being led by a semi-illiterate mechanics worker...

I expect the trolling to reduce markedly over the coming months..

I expect false expectations

P.S. Don't get me wrong. There's a good chance the price will do what you said

Long term downtrend breakout on Kraken BTC/EUR 1m. 

To be honest, I hope we won't see a rally.

A slow and steady rise from here would be very bullish.

IS this fall normal??? just an correction?? or is it extraordinary?? Does it go faster, normal or slower then average?

Too low volume

until a bear shits in the woods

No, either going up to ~290$ and then slowly descending, accelerating and eventually crashing, or just crash in 4 - 5 days.

Good morning Gents.

I'm not into charting, but I decided to play a little with the one Adam has provided here:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg1460zigWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

It seems to me -if we hypothesize that a pattern is being followed- we're en route for a month of "stable" prices. Anyone else sees what I'm seeing? 

Bulls and bears balance each other very well atm.

Guess the next two month will become boring to an almost unbearable level.   

Yes, it was my mistake!!

Anyway we still are heading down.... to like 10$ pr coin in -.... lets say 20 min??? hehehehhe just kidding.... I cannot predict the future.... I don't even understand how the leverage rates that you guys post affect the market?

I just have a got feeling that we are continuing in an down trend... and if not, I will loose my bet.. that's the truth.

Bulls and bears balance each other very well atm.

Guess the next two month will become boring to an almost unbearable level.   

That sounds like something from the I Ching!

I am ready to sell if we go down under 236.

Buy them, i will buy back mine later, at a lower price. I am a perma holder for most of my stash. The coins i am going to sell are only 10% of my coins.

what goes down keeps going down... FOREVER!

There's much to be said about the delayed GBTC, Gemini, COIN and Ethereum launches lately.  Everyone is waiting for the impending hype cycle.  It is coming....but when?!?

lol ah the nostalgia. I wasn't even lurking these forums then, that didn't start until 2012! And people getting in now I still consider to be early adopters.

Would be nice, but it's arguably no different that the 'double bottom' we thought we had in early November. Volume is a bit more now, but everything else looks very much the same

i disagree
i have lots of friends that i've been informing about bitcoin for a while now, none of them bought, they all wish they did, and they've been thinking of buying ever since the bubble, but we're fearful of buying because i was saying things like
"bear market"
I've told them it was a good buy at 400, months ago, but they didn't buy.
its one thing to say I'll buy some, and its an other thing to actually set up an account get verified and transfer money
I bet if i pushed a little i could get them to buy a few off me right now,
I keep telling them to make an account and buy in slowly, but this is to difficult for them, i'll have to be there dealer.
I plan to show them the "use bitcoin anywhere paypass is accepted" thing ( I should have a account of that when beta is ready )
they will see first hand how easy it is to buy stuff with bitcoin, by then the bull market will be self evident, i figure i can easily get them buying 300-400$ coins at that point. ( which is a very nice entry point if you ask me, 32,000$ in < 2 years poeple...)

the things i do to make sure my friends make sound investment decisions... unbelieveable.

HODL gentlemen

Don't be weak in hard times for the strong will be rewarded in years to come

BEWARE: DanV is very good with downtrend predictions/bottoms/lows etc., but he's not good with predictions about UP. This is typical attribute about Elliott's waves analysis that is easier to use EW to dips than ups. I don't know if this is unique feature for EW and Btc but I can see this from long time. Maybe it's just because analysis in general is easier in downtrend than in uptrend, who knows.

I find this analysis good:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/rC6uMwPH-Bitcoin-Period-of-Consolidation/

am I the only one not giving a single fuck about that action on btc-e?

now bids popping out on bitfinex and stamp - yaaaawn.

not sure if serious, but agreed.

Ahh this place is returning to the norm.


Next phase fear

It has begun!

Big pumps are showing up more and more frequently.
I guess next bubble will not take weeks but rather days.

Glad I took some of them cheap coins last week

yea, well...too bad it wont go higher.

30K dump moves price down ~$5?? Now I see shorts are up to 30K on BFX. Bears be runnin out of coinz to dump. At this point all they are doing is providing support when/if they cover. I don't know if All week hands have been shaken out, but certainly more have been than yesterday. Bear market running out of steam.

that's kinda usual pre-dump movement for bitcoin.

 

Moon incoming.

Come on 240s

If despite the decreased volume and signs of a big move coming we just stay sideways, that would be boring AF lol

Bulls and bears balance each other very well atm.

Guess the next two month will become boring to an almost unbearable level.  

Consolidation till june 20th, after that pump to $260 and then dump to $220, after that there may be another bubble.

Classified inside sources

I haven't been checking in much lately - but you seem to be one of the few bear trolls still making an effort. Good for you...

What do you tell people when they ask you what you do with your life?

Don't get too excited bears, a 3 USD dump isn't going to touch the sides.
It's like throwing a hot dog down a hallway  
I do hope it doesn't go down any further though  
No more dumping please people.
HODL strong fellow bitcoiners.

Where do I get a weighted price stability chart?

Thanks!

Indeed there seems to be more going on than a simple technical disagreement.

I won t say that Gavin's proposal is the best one, but at least I understand his position: "with 1 MB blocks the network is close to saturation and will not handle the volume that we would like to see, so let's make the blocks bigger".

The thinking of his opponents (who include Peter Todd, Gregg Maxwell, and Luke Dash Jr.) seems less clear: they say that they are worried about the consequences of bigger blocks, but they have no alternative proposal to deal with impending congestion, and seem to want to see the network saturate.

Someone on reddit pointed out that most or all of those big opponents work for Blockstream, the company that was supposed to develop sidechains and is now working on a thing called the Lightning Network,  Those are projects that would provide fast bitcoin transactions and other bitcoin services (such as micropayment channels) outside the blockchain.  That could be a reason for wanting the network to saturate.  However, Greg says that they were opposed to big blocks well before creating Blockstram.

Someone else suggested that they may want to see the network saturate so that big non-payment users like NASDAQ and Factom are forced to pay huge fees, like $50 on a 1000 satoshi transaction.  That would push common users out of the system and turn bitcoin into a tool for big corporations only.  (Peter Todd does not miss a chance to mention that he is "talking to Big Banks".) Sounds like the FUD that only JorgeStolfi would write.  

Anyway, last Friday night a handful of reddit users set out, without much planning, to try to saturate the network with small transactions.  In the course of 2 hours (23:00 to 01:00 UTC) they put out maybe 30'000 transaction requests.  The queues at the nodes got over the 20'000 mark and the backlog took 8 hours to clear.  It is not clear what fees the guys paid, but they did not put much money into it.  Yet Luke Jr claims that the test only showed that 1 MB is fine.  Boh.

Perhaps the real fear is how the system will react to an intentional hard fork, that is not mandated by a bug...

I've been quite amazed by the butter finger behavior with the btc...

It didn't hold late last week at 240 and move up from there, and since then it's just been a cynical sell off...

I dunno what compels people to buy or sell...

248 2 weeks ago... then drop down again and then back up to hit 241... and then melt down into the 30s then finally whales dropping 222.

It just looks orchestrated and artificial... all of it.

It doesn't seem to take much to move people in a direction.  I dunno how price manipulation would work exactly, but it does seem manipulated.

Interesting... I was about to go to cold storage with my coins...

I don't actually "trade" I buy and sell on the exchange market. I have no idea how to do a call or put option, but... that would be nice to make money on a downward market. I don't want leverage, and I don't have a clue what bitfinex's margin options are about.

I thought i'd try day trading, but at this point I just don't have time to day trade. And i'm just too lazy. I do more of a bi monthly trade.

Is it possible that it falls at $220 in few days ?

ahh, it is just my private opinion, is fine that you had yours..in same way I can ask, why you think, that it will fall again..

He's waiting for double digits?

DanV doesn't know how to do a green up arrow. He only knows red down arrows.

Look at that : https://www.whaleclub.co/posts/u/DanV

   

Makes you realize where the price would be without the manipulation. There are very few real sellers out there. Bullish.

I think with the announcement of a few new hidden markets that we will not see those large price swings up and down within a 5 min candle. There is no reason to do it unless you are attempting to manipulate the price and cause a panic in either direction.

If ~$200 was the bottom (many evidence suggests, I might post some of my own), then why everyone is not buying?

Gmax said he would sell sell sell??! cant believe i missed it.. would you have a link??

Pretty sure there won't be any grexit. This picture is two days ago 

If I was a bear I would start closing my shorts...

USD will give you a reason on monday.

someone is eager to anticipate other markets, but I think that this move will cost him a lot.

Dont forget about >40.000 BTC from USMS waiting to be sold, auction happened: late july 2014, november 2014, early march 2015, july 2015? EU and ECB dont need all this mess with greece, there will be an agreement, most of greeks will vote for acceptance of creditors proposals after the week of total chaos starting right now, their retarded government is not ready for what they've started they dont have any escape plan, people of greece will realise it pretty soon.

Many people have said similar things at every level for years and pretty much every one of them have been wrong.

I'm afraid, empowering has it right. ANY country's exit from the Eurozone means the chain has broken. EUR is not backed by anything more than the "agreement" of the members of the Eurozone that THIS will be their currency. Unfortunately, most people don't see this. Everybody sees a country that the Mass Media has been blaming for being "lazy", "thieves", "crooks" in order to cover the most undeniable truth since the beginning of the crisis.

The Greek Debt wasn't the PEOPLE'S debt! It was the BANK'S debt. With a political decision (after mr Papandreou stepped down, mr Papadimos was the PM that the troika has APPOINTED as the country's ruler) they transferred it to toxic bonds that shortly after they were bought from the country's reserves. Social security, hospitals, public companies, etc. They took fresh money and left us with toxic bonds! AND NOBODY SAID ANYTHING!

It's a moral issue for ANY European to understand that this is not a war between Germany or France with Greece. It's the moment in time for EVERYONE to understand who the real enemy is. Who the thieves are! Who brought a country to its knees. IT WAS THE BANKSTERS!

Oh, I've mentioned it before, but let me repeat it once more: If your neighbour's house is on fire, better worry for it comes for your house too.

That's highly unlikely. ~240 perhaps but not 220. 

My theory:

Bitcoin is intentionally being suppressed, but in a unique way.  The whales are busy pumping the litecoin market.  Bitcoins are being sold to the whales in exchange for litecoins, so that noobs can play the litecoin rally.  The whales are holding the bitcoin price fairly steady to make it seem unappealing and boring.  The whales are also attacking the Bitcoin network with spam to continue to delay things.

Once that is done and LTC maxes out, the whales will then take off the parking brake and Bitcoin will start to rally.  The whales will mass dump their remaining litecoin for bitcoin.  All the noobs will then rush in from LTC to BTC en masse, forcing the rally even higher.  The world will then start reading about bitcoin in the media and join in the Bitcoin party.

When that happens, Katy bar the door.

The bitfinex walls have suddenly shifted to a bearish configuration..sigh. Pesky whale.

Let's see a 28x

7k to 300..

FTFY.
I however do not think that $300 is such a significant psychological barrier. Although we have already reached a important level. We have only been at $280+ back in March.
If we reach $315 we will have a new high for the year. I think that it is quite possible.
However, as someone stated the LTC market is not that big to make huge jumps in the price for Bitcoin. We have yet to see it crash and the money flowing back into Bitcoin.

I would be feeling very bullish if it werent for the bidside order book looking so weak.

I will remain skeptical.

Not sure who is selling now in the low 280's after a 35 dollar drop.

The orderbook and the ferocity of the sell off tells the whole story. If this was a 'real' sell off then the chappy with 12k coins sat like a sword of damocles on the ask orderbook would have just sold. I wouldn't be surprised if the orderbook flips around to the bull side over the next few days once he has reaccumulated from panicking prawns.

Bottom line if bitcoin holds in the 275-300 range for the next few days then the bull is still ON!

People really believe your average Joe from Greece will buy many bitcoins?

That's just stupid on so many levels.

When is the halving approximately?

after the 300 double top we can finally go sub 200

 ..So incredibly true.

 Just as how Greece won't save Bitcoin

 Nor will China's or the US/EU's stock market troubles ;

 Nor would (for any lasting adoption and/or price gains) any further P&D's by large-scale Ponzi promoters like that LTC pump chinese guy ;

 ..the only thing that can save BTC is 1. Global apocalyptic event -or- 2a. Another 2008 Subprime-Style global fiat financial meltdown -&- 2b. The BitcoinCore & Blockchain Tech fundamental technical problems have been addressed & Bitcoin is vastly easier to use & features a more secure/stable blockchain network.

 After all, just a few days ago, people like me were shaking our heads as the degenerates in this thread were howling for CCMF as if those fundamental human psychology & sociological factors were suddenly not applying anymore [General public(plebians) are lazy | Mediocrity-minded/Tolerate corrupt & inefficient fiat banking + traditional payments | Soft/Don't like change/Prefer Status Quo], & blockchain's core challenges were magically solved thus enabling global mass user adoption all of a sudden ~ Meanwhile I loaded shorts @ $315 (but I got scared & closed them at 300 ;p), because after all :

Based on?

Target ETA?

Could you elaborate more please  

Ftfy

Spoke too soon..mini sell off. Low volume panic sell by the looks of things.

Let's see if we hold 290. If it does then 300 should fall next time.

Anyone in support of a blocksize increase is a moron, a plague to Bitcoin.




So please feel free to go f#ck yourselves along with gavin and mickey the usurpers.

Anyway, such fork will just never become reality, as miners wont simply let their revenue crushed.

This my last post on the matter. Moving on.

(sry OT, needed to let it out one last time)


ps: will put any whining blocksize increase noob on ignore from now on.

Satoshi's vision originally was that eventually block subsidies and fees would likely not cover the costs of mining, but that institutions with an interest in keeping the network secure would spend funds to secure it. Even so, 10% of market cap yearly seems like an unreasonable cost. The end user must pay that in the end.

I wonder, how does 10% costs over market cap compare to the banking industry?

The best thing 'amateur' traders can do is buy in at these low prices & HODL until the halving. Stop trying to play & guess the market, you will lose that game 9 times out of 10.

Do the sensible thing, buy in & HODL until the halving. I guarantee the price will be double what it is today at least. Why try & catch 20 USD pump & dumps now? If you're not a whale & able to manipulate the market you will lose unless you get lucky.

BTC-E is sniffing the others in the B. We might get a bit of a pump very soon.

The absurd "Regulated Exchange" era of Bitcoin is nothing more than a millimetre thin geologic layer in the advance towards domination.

Bitcoin price will surge at some point, and neither regulations, institutions, governance or whatever other deluded mass-marketed socialist businesses will have anything to do with it, ever.

also, patient.

where do you get 245 from ?
it may drop to 255-265 then rises to ath... everything is possible

Why? Because ~245 was the resistenace back around sep 8th?

1 week SAR just hit on bitstamp

feels like late 2012. it's been so long since the gox drama.

panic will start @ 220.

Mining is not decentralized at all. If few people control (own) mining facilities in China and the rest of the world - this is not decentralization - even is none of them controls more than 10% of hashpower.

Decentralization is thousands of individuals controlling no more than 1% od hashpower each. If mining is profitable then it will be centralized.

Depends on who constructs the blocks that are mined by the kids consoles.

Institutional Investors clearly too dumb 2b disruptive/didn't the white paper.
Maybe if we dumb it down for them, pictorially?

but.....but.......they said double top.

it's a dump fest from 280~282.

I expect a pull back in the next few days to 255.

We're probably at a bit of a tipping point now sitting at 280. I can't see us staying at 280 for long. I think we'll swing fairly significantly either way but which way?

weekly rsi overbought. Need to cooldown a bit before we can continue with the rally. Guess people who play it safe will take profits here. But I am holding and move a bit into altcoins.

Will probably follow Russia by letting bitcoiners cool their heels in jail for 4 years

Where did you find this chart, I love these.

Market doesn't care  

Bulls are Core supporters 

no, don't think so ... they are all waiting for the "inevitable' dump/pullback/dip, playing it cool, etc.

nah, bottom of latest pump surely far from being in.
purge & profit time.

edit: study case here

Fuck it I'm going long.

first "real" correction is on the way.

Show is over for now. We'll go back to ~$300 and building a plateau there;  Price will oscillate between $300 and $400 while slowly creeping up to around $450 until jan/feb. From there, we will start the rise far beyond the ATH.

Ok, so we're going up then.


CHOO CHOO!!!

Edit: TBH I think we might see a slow bleed or sideways for a couple of days. A lot of the traders the wales are trying to communicate movements to are probably busy with figuring out how the latest terrorist attacks will affect commodities and stocks. France is probably going to war. They might try to get other NATO countries with them as well.

Edit 2: "Hollande said the attacks were “an act of war" committed by the Islamic State group’s "terrorist army”."

http://www.france24.com/en/20151114-paris-attacks-president-hollande-act-war-islamic-state-group-terrorism-france

That kind of language has a specific meaning. They're communicating that they see the conditions for invoking NATO's Article 5 as being fulfilled.

“A history of false flag attacks used to manipulate the minds of the people! “In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule.”
― Friedrich Nietzsche

Wow, you seem to be pretty sure about it...Can you please give me a contact on the crystall ball dealer you bought it from?

The problem is they probably won't hear it because the actual reason to limit bitcoin usage has nothing to do with IS or terrorists.

Oh yeah, sure sure.  Bull trolls have been saying we're in the "Sept 2013 phase" for like 12 months now.  

I think that this will be the exit spot that I was expecting.

first "real" correction is on the way.

Show is over for now. We'll go back to ~$300 and building a plateau there;  Price will oscillate between $300 and $400 while slowly creeping up to around $450 until jan/feb. From there, we will start the rise far beyond the ATH.

$300/320 is the target - after that we'' see an oscillating price up to $450 till jan/feb. - it'll feel more or less like sideways.

I found the runup earlier in the same year (March/April 2013) a lot more emotional and stressful.

After the bear market of 2011 and a good year of what looks like essentially sideways action in retrospect we finally broke the old ath of $32, which some said would never be broken again. Afterwards, driven by the media (cyprus and all that), this incredible rally started going off like there was no tomorrow. The rocket had been filling up with fuel for a long time and propelled us up to mind-boggling heights of $266. What a blast! The crash was excruciatingly painful and volatile. It slammed down to $50 (where I actually sold some coins in panic, which I hadn't ever done before) in what seemed like no time at all. I (and probably many others) came out very relieved we hadn't dropped below $32.

This was all a lot more exciting and emotionally challenging for me than the subsequent runup to $1263 in November.

EDIT: the most recent runup (peaking Nov 4th) and 'crash' (if it can be called that at all) seems tame, almost boring in comparison.

All bitcoin exchanges have built-in interest to support XT altcoin. Their business depends on the parallel existence of bitcoin and fiat money until the end of the world. But this is not the interest of the bitcoin community!

bought in at 355... hope i caught a knife and didn't just light money on fire

we'll see $330 so keep on holding. after that we will start to rise.

check out 3d chart on stamp: the entire 2015 is the mother of all cup&handle...

nobody bought when i told them about it too
they could of gotten a very early ticket to the moon.
i gave a few 1BTC for xmas one year, worth ~20-30$, and they cashed out from 150 - 700  
buying in the $235's would of been the thing to do, but i think everyone bought a little at 500+ and 400 and 300 and 158.5!
440 feels a bit toppy, but if there was any doubt left i think its gone today, bull market! buy buy buy!

i think a fast drop to 390 and bounce back to 410 is very probable.

I'd say sub 350

Bulls are in a dangerous position. If the market goes much higher, xaction rate will raise, slowing the network down.  Then xaction fees will rise, hurting the business model of many of the most well-funded Bitcoin companies. The network is already a tiny bit slower with the difficulty hike.  

Plus there are such a low number of shorts that the money flowing in will have to absorb almost the entire dump with very little short covering.  

I'm only bearish because of the scaling problem. If it wasn't for that, I'd be all in. As I've said all along, I'm always net long because of my cold storage stash.

Scaling is a major issue. Is Bitcoin really anti-fragile or not? We just don't know yet.

RIP bulls.

Totally agree.  Not to mention, global investors have bubbled and exhausted nearly every type of market out there (US stock, Chinese stock, real estate, commodities, PMs, etc.), all while bitcoin was bear trending. They'll all be looking for a viable alternate market to trade in next year.

Doesn't matter. You have to choose a team. There are only 2 and you can't have a different opinion.

Kinda like choosing Republican or Democrat.

$380 next - rally in february

Karpeles got away with 700k BTCs and said "oops, malleability bug".

They could easily say "well... you know... hard fork... force majeure! Not our fault".

Why would anyone risk this instead of pulling their money out.

I'm not buying this

Feel free to call me an idiot later and quote me

Looks a bit like BTC/oil

Sub $400 is the new MUST-BUY zone.

right and  $769 is a good target for the top of another small bubblish bump up

next 3 months of action might be 440  450  460 pop to 769 drop to 500

Looks like someone flashed a Superdump signal on finex.

2xx incoming?!

I can't live like this

https://www.pwc.com/us/en/financial-services/publications/qa-whats-next-for-blockchain.html


Wat??

I'd rather see some mayhem in this market first.
Let's bump the limit and see what happens.

Nobody wants to deal with this problem once this is a gazillion trillion market.
Bump this shit now, see what happens and act accordingly.

Just like you let your kids get all kinds of bacteria through playing with dirt and putting everything in their mouth.
Kids have to get sick first so they will be resilient as an adult.

If you prevent your kids to get sick by putting them in sterile surroundings, they'll die soon when they grow up...

Bitcoin is a kid, right now...

Finally! Non-DNM unique use case scenario for BTC

Just wait for when they'll dump back into bitcoin. 

Unfortunately, I believe this drama will only temporarily go away. There were indeed many genuine XT/UL/Classic supporters but there were also many shills/trolls/  agent provocateurs supporting a contentious HF. Bitcoin is competing/undermining against some of the most powerful states and corporations and we should prepare for a vicious and difficult fight ahead.

Part of this is educating people towards the true principles of bitcoin, as many are still advocating code be written under the governance of democracy which would be tragic and goes against our current meritocracy consensus based development framework. As we grow our ecosystem this will remain a constant challenge we must overcome as most humans have been programmed to believe democracy is the best form of governance available.

I mostly agree with this, but there are some standards and norms which have come forth from both the code and the roots of the cipherpunk movement. This is why I was referring to development being decided upon mostly by meritocracy and consensus and not bitcoin as a whole. As Bitcoin as a whole the "governance" and control is far more complex and nuanced.


I.E... Rather than one person, one vote... the economic majority has greater influence on bitcoin balanced by the ability of developers and limitations of the technology. This is opposed to many democratic republics where the economic majority indirectly influences the majorities vote to remain dominant.


Please elaborate, specifically.

ETH is seeing the bubble meant to be for bitcoin. Everybody is "waiting for the consolidation" to get in...

Sounds familiar!? > ETH is 2011 all over again.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch


https://coin.dance/nodes

Wow... you are braver bear than me... I shorted 2 days ago, when 12h MACD divergence looked ready to cross into red,
and then had to close the short at a small loss, so now I'm waiting, it may crash this weekend or climb to 400$ and then crash.
Anyway IMO support at 300$ must be tested, even in a bullish scenario.

I explained it to you many times already but fine. Things (w/e they are) only have value if the supply is limited and they have a purpose. How limited something is determines it's value (together with its utility value). The block size at the moment is in limited supply (1 MB roughly every 10 minutes), so a place on that has a certain implied value (this will be the fee in the long term, right now it's not very visible because of the huge subsidy which skews actual fees). The value of the sum of the fees determines the amount of security because this is how the miners are paid (the miner market is a commodity market so it will approach break-even long term. Total fees will equal security). Therefore if the block size is increased the value of size on the block chain goes down and thus the amount miners get paid goes down and so does the security.

Security is the most important thing giving value to XMR units and so a lower security will lower the intrinsic value of Bitcoin.

Similarly increasing the 21M coin limit will also lower the intrinsic value of Bitcoin because it inflates the supply (more unit available).

Next to all this there is the precedent reasoning mentioned above. Right now I trust Bitcoin to never inflate supply of either limited unit (XMR or block chain size) and therefore value Bitcoin as such. If they inflate it I will be forced to estimate future watering down of XMR and blockchain size (and thus watering down of value) in my intrinsic value calculations and therefore I will be prepared to pay a lower price for Bitcoins as an investment. The market will do the same.

i don't believe you.

I'm talking about the UI experience, of course what happens behind the scenes is different. This is the same as what will happen when segwit rolls out. All upgraded wallets will send and receive tx the same for the user perspective , but behind the scenes there are now 2 merkle trees. LN is intended to use existing technologies that have already been added to bitcoin . CLTV and multisig ... and wallet providers will be onboard with integrating wallets to process LN txs so there is no learning curve..

What don't you believe , specifically? Do you assume Wallet devs will make it unnecessarily complicated for no reason in order to confuse users?


Elaborate ..

Perhaps you guys are getting confused because in these presentations Poon is using terms like Alice, Bob, and Eve ... these terms do not refer to what the humans are actually thinking when a tx occurs, these presentations are intended for developers to understand the concepts .

why does people still clinging on to the idea bitcoin *needs* to scale or be instant or nearly free to be valuable?

There is still a huge amount of upward momentum in this market, judging by the moving averages.  The problem is, if we continue on this trajectory, blocks will fill first, then fees will double. Then fees will quadruple, octuple, etc. until even the mathematincally challenged pumpmonkeys start to extrapolate what this means. Even though fees are still cheap, they will be only so for a very short period of time.

we have the capacity for a half million active users at most. Even if we ALL go away and get replaced by high rollers doing drug deals or speculating on the halving or whatever, and even if SegWit almost doubles the capacity, then what? Things just stagnate until we go through another two year clusterfuck to kick the can again? Rinse and repeat?

and what if through some miracle we get through all of that with flying colors and market cap goes to 100 Billion. Do you think the PBoC and the Communist Party of China will be happy with that and just let it continue to grow?

I'm starting to think the best way for me to liquidate my stash is just to sell a coin a week for however many years it takes, regardless of whether the price goes up or down.  The objective of traders is to make money, of course, but the purpose of traders is SUPPOSED to be to function as liquidity providers who reduce volatility.

The problem as I see it is that the traders who make the biggest profit in this market actually create volatility, withholding liquidity when it is needed and dumping when the market is already crashing.  I may have made a fundamental miscalculation.  This could just be growing pains or this could be something endemic to disinflationary currency. 

What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ.  This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings.  Even if Core changes their own governance rules to ratify this roundtable agreement, scaling may be slower than halvings.   Sidechains, lighting network, etc are no substitute because they effectively trade Bitcon IOUs and not actual bitcoin. You get the same problem that the fiat world has: a fractional reserve money multiplier than can either run positive or negative and screw up the balance.  At some point, Bitcoin may hit stall speed and enter into an unrecoverable dive.  What scares the shit out of me is this may have already happened.  27 months since the ATH, we're trading at <50%. 

Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking, or a slow liquidation becomes a serious consideration. 

This is so rude

Mother taught me to listen to people online

[X] yes
[ ] no
[ ] no, but plan to

Stop it with your ETH pumping. So what if it went up 14% in the past 24hrs, what's your point?

Currently, I am underestimating the upside potential of bitcoin.  

Wow, you seem to be pretty sure about it...Can you please give me a contact on the crystall ball dealer you bought it from?

Mobile broadband was probably used as in "slow."
Quick search tells me that there are at least 2 internet providers in Nome, Alaska.
In my (unlerned) opinion, "decentralization" is no longer an issue, that bird has flown.

I don't understand what you mean. Explain?

"As someone who comes from a physics and engineering background, over the long run I'm not concerned with mining centralization. Physics will ensure it is distributed."
"As a result, the mining centralization we see in Greenland and large data centers becomes enormously unprofitable. Any centralization of mining would REQUIRE heat recycling, which severely limits data centers and necessitates distribution unless you introduce heat pumps, which also increase cost."
--submitted 1 year ago
How's that decentralization goin' thus far?

The guy doesn't understand that mining is centralized in China, not Greenland.
He doesn't understand that it's economically idiotic to heat your hot water with miners, because miners need *cold water* going into the waterblocks -- recirculating hot water for cooling ain't cooling, it ain't gonna do much. If hot water was used at a constant rate, 24/7, he might have a better point, but it don't work like that.
Regardless, *mining is concentrated around cheap electricity,* not where it's cold (Greenland).
The fact that silicon might hit quantum dead end "round the year 2024" ain't doing diddly for us now.

TL;DR: don't buy his "physics and engineering background," he doesn't think things through.
P.S. If you wanna talk about particulars of utilizing waste heat, I'll be glad to.

P.P.S. LOL, HE'S the bro behind "That is why we are building a bitcoin miner that fits inside a water heater."
I remember when IceDrill was selling us stories about their farm providing heat for apartment complexes

>I don't see mining centralization as a big problem.
In that case, the point's moot. I don't see it as a catastrophic problem, but it's a serious one. One that effectively nulls any pretensions to Bitcoin being "decentralized."

>heaters are just one thought
It's an awful thought. It's fail.

>Stirling engines
Not sure if srs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_engine#Efficiency <==and that's just what's theoretically possible.
Have you also considered this?

Put it this way: Let's say Chinese coal-fired Electricity is 2 pennies per kWh, and yours is 4 pennies. Your Stirling engine manages to convert 3% of wasted heat back into electricity. Yeah.
Bonus: if Stirling heat reclamation made sense, Chinese megaminers would use it too. They'd make the thing, too -- you'll buy it from them

Seriously tho, read the laws of thermodynamics, it's straightforward stuff.

LTC

Ahh... The Wonder And Beauty of a planned economy.

You don't understand. What's gonna happen is people will transact off-chain, maybe consolidate their paltry txs on pay now buy later Lightning Network, and then pipe dream use Bitcoin as the settlement layer, teh backbone, so to say.

The money will roll right in!

I very specifically and intentionally did not do that.


You are conflating a qualitative and quantitative limit on transactions. YOU are the one confusing "free as in beer" and "free as in freedom".  A $10 remittance to an impoverished family member may be more important than a $1000 dice bet by a millionaire due to marginal utility. It may or may not be. That isn't for me or you to determine.  By forcing one of those two transactions off the network (because fees do not increase capacity), you are giving rich people an artificial advantage over poor people in addition to the natural advantages they already posses.   You've turned Bitcoin into just another tool of oppression.

Because Bitcoin is a public good, and because the Law of Marginal Utility applies to money just like any other commodity, an artificial fee market amounts to a regressive tax. You've turned Bitcoin into just another tool of oppression.

Yes, we clearly disagree on the balance of dexterity and security. IMHO, There should be more testing done and we should be more careful as the market cap continues to grow.

There are many objective and evidentiary levels that would make me feel more comfortable with increasing capacity higher and quicker. One example among many- a reversal in node drop of rate or increasing total economic node count , and not just the sybil attack created by the ignorant who feel they are contributing to the security by spinning up cloud nodes without economic agents behind them.

Last week it was at 40-50 satoshi/byte, now it's at 60 satoshi/byte (actually the 51-60 range has 0 wait), so it's unikely you are paying 4-6 pennies more (unless your wallet is overpaying). More like 0-2.

https://bitcoinfees.21.co/

Let them do it. Who cares?

And if it's acceptable, feasible and seems fitting for Bitcoin, then Bitcoin can incorporate it down the road. Bitcoin is not currently broken in spite the many loud mouth fudding about Bitcoin supposedly being broken.

the last month in words: exponential fee rise in bitcoin vs exponential price rise in ethereum. which one do you prefer!?

So you are suggesting that tx fees will rise to such a degree that it is cost prohibitive for users to transfer them to exchanges? How high of a fee is this in your opinion?

This scenario is more likely with alts, but an unlikely hypothetical all currencies have. It ignores the fact that markets are efficient and those on the edge of divesting will already have their coins loaded in an exchange in anticipation so there will be no bitcoin tx occurring for a majority during this "bank run" It will go from exchange token to offline exchange token tx to alt or fiat to alt tx or fiat tx without ever hitting the blockchain.

The mtgox scenario is completely different because users trust remained in bitcoin but not the exchange itself. In your scenario users trust would be in the exchange but not the currency and exchanges don't care if you sell your BTC for an alt or the other way around, they just want tx volume.

Interesting... just a few days ago you were all up uP UP! May I ask what made you change your mind?

Yes sell all before the halfing in supply, sound strategy 

weak hands and despair all over the place blaming the lack of kumbaya in whatever community you thought bitcoin was (its just a technology, not some frat club).

sell now cry later you impatient hype surfing crackhead.

bubye  

Funny how you joined this forum on about the week of the max up price (ATH), and then you were so foresightful maxed out your BTC investment at the peak low in BTC prices in order to be self-described as a "winner"?   Should we take what you say with a very large grain of salt?

To replace subsidy you'd need 100MB blocks, assuming that there is 100x demand, and that the quality of this demand is on par with our current top-tier urgent txs that are paying 0.06$ per tx.

The problem is that 100MB blocks don't work. And it's not "Core's fault". And it's not like Gavin Andersen or Classic can make them work either. This type of size will eventually work as software and hardware technology evolves.

Monero, ETH and Maid are not in a pump and dump phase, they are just growing to next level. Im like 20 days waiting for a retracement to enter but no way... I really want to hear your thoughts to this issue, from a BTC wall observer point of view, as pure eth/maid threadt would be too biased and eco chambered to his own coins.

The big/small blockers debate is totally burnout and 2014-15, lets move, evolve, adapt and grow

that's the result of core refusing to officially accept the 2017 HF.

lets see at which price-level minds are changing...

It's a paradox: If the price keeps dropping (the big exodus), there'll be no point in mining 2MB blocks

I pretty much agree with your views. I will also see LTC falling steadily into oblivion, the trend seems solid. Of the new coins what are your faves?

Rothschild Bank now under criminal investigation after Baron David De Rothschild indictment.

It toke a long time but finally someone with balls of steel wants the Rothschilds behind bars. I wonder how far they can go.

Even with a estimate wealth of more than 500 trillion they're still not satisfied and whants more by robbing British pensioners?

http://themindunleashed.org/2016/03/rothschild-bank-now-under-criminal-investigation-after-baron-david-de-rothschild-indictment.html

I like COCC. It rolls so smoothly off the toungue.

Ok, I'm in!

If you are not making money now is that you are doing it wrong. Guys, diversify, enjoy, and then short the helluva of...  

The bodies of eth-tarmis are heaping up at the crypto altar.

Be safe

where can one find that kind of graph?

Are you sure it's fresh fiat that drives ETH? I think it's just the same traders selling and rebuying, shorting, getting margin called etc.

ETH is on its way to $30 > Bitcoin will fork ($400) > invested money in ETH will shift to Bitcoin ($800) > ETH will come back to $5

Edit: time frame is Q2 - after that we'll see a crypto bubble ETH $50 / BTC $3500