Yes. Shorting is practically free. You can short 300k a day for less than $100.

Key points of Huobi's announcement:

1. Huobi has checked with their third party payment service providers and banks and was informed that no instruction from PBOC had been received.
2. Huobi will stop all third party payment services on 05-04-2014.
3. Huobi will ramp up its manpower to 7*24 on internet fund transfer. All bank deposits and withdrawals are not affected.

It is different.

Because there is no China ban?
Because we went down 100's because of a rumour?
Because people are sheep?

With your money Bitcoin will be live, without your money Bitcoin will die.

320
250
180
130

Good question. I think 380 is psychologically important and below 200 would probably be a decision point for even hardened hodlers

Where do people get this retarded idea from that "Bitcoin is dead if it falls below price x".

Oh yeah, I know: from the same jumping-to-conclusions part of the brain that tells them "we never fell below the previous ATH, so it can't happen this time either"...

Bitstamp log-ins have resumed? 

Why is huobi suddenly panic buying?

Institutional investor ready and waiting...

Who knows its a mystery at this point, I beleive the oral communication part was between Huobi and their bank though not their bank and pboc?

General consensus is 保持

Okay, well I agree with you to a point but its not impossible to prepare for, if you anticipate based on the news that the price will drop due to exchanges bank accounts being closed then that is preparing for it, thus it gets priced in slightly.

Are you attempting to suggest that the price drop due to the confirmed news would have been the same amount even if people had not already heard it was likely and taken a position based on that.

+1

Some of us have been trying to make that point for a while.  If China wanted to ban Bitcoin, it would... well... ban Bitcoin.

Precisely my point.

China has analysed Bitcoin and concluded that it's both a) practically unstoppable just like the Internet itself and b) a real threat to RMB.

They can stall it.  They can try and control how people acquire it in lieu of their Yuan - but they can't stop it.  They might not even want to.  They just want to try and retain as much centralised control for as long as possible while they try and come up with a backup plan.  For all we know they're hard at work making cryptoyuan right now.

Anyway, the point is that honey badgers eat politicos for breakfast.

Im sure the people who watched it go to $2 from $30 stay there for longer than 4 months and then to $266 would disagree with you but ehy you know best right?!

Thats would be the equivalent of going to about $80 now, you seriously trying to say were going to $80?

a lot of useless troll discussion, not so much as to whats really going on and what we should expect.

This is only the fourth or fifth time that the C word has caused panic in the playground. What makes you think it will be the last?

It's time for another episode of everyone's favorite game... Test That Wall!

I'm going to say yes, because of this.
http://finance.china.com.cn/news/special/boao2014/20140411/2327233.shtml

So the reason we went down 100's was fear of a potential China ban. Today we learn that China won't ban Bitcoin. What does everybody do? They sell.
Well done traders and sheep. Well done for being complete idiots.

Correct. This isn't really news and doesn't create any change. Bitcoin, in fact, was never banned in China. However, banks and third party payment processors WERE banned from dealing with bitcoin exchanges, and this has not changed. The bank accounts are still being shut down for violating this rule. What the news is saying is that, again, people are free to trade bitcoins and own bitcoins in China if they can find the means to do so.

Who else is going to short after the upcoming bulltrap?

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

Anyone want to speculate on the effects to Bitcoin when this happens ?

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/apr/14/facebook-e-money-transfer-service-europe

If I am not mistaken, this run will take Bitcoin all the way to 6500-7000 USD (based on how it rose last bull run from 60 to around 1200).
There might be some flashcrashes on the way but the major correction will come when the price is at the range of 6500-7000 USD.
I have been buying coins and even today I made a fiat transfer to Bitstamp so fresh cash is on the way. I still have significiant cash reserves to push the coin higher if it is necessary. Right now I do not recommend to short. The odds are that the price will go pretty high. Who am I to stop BTC running even towards 10 000 USD?

yeah lol.... cant trust fools to buy when it's cheap..... and you cant trust them to stop buying when it's expensive! mania knows no ceilings.

It means most likely it's a bull trap, and people are all exuberant because they've taken their longs already.

Are you actually familiar with urban dictionary? It is hardly authoritative.


FWIW, the actual origins are from a treatment for drowning. I don't think many people got saved that way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uEJbwGYaDs

Is it at 12 midnight?

Look, at this point these announcements dont matter. Traders are just using them as entry and exit points. I think most people who wanted to pull their funds off exchanges have already done so in China.

However, its the future difficulty of getting money into exchanges which is bearish.

Meanwhile, China traders who remain on exchanges remain as kamakazee as ever.

I think the funny thing is that a big chunk of sellers are selling because "sheeps are selling, price will go down, so i will short as well". So everyone thinks that everyone else is an idiot and they are the smart ones who are just taking advantage of them.

Welcome to the forum! Hope you've had the good first 6 days. Btw. the question is off-topic for this thread but let's not be picky.

Your question is discussed for example here.

The cultists are finally coming out of the closet and openly admitting the cultist nature of bitcoin. That's not good marketing. I wonder, how long will it take until your manor will be called the temple..
In the end, all of the bitcoins will be held by The True Believers. No question about that. It's questionable though, if those final True Believers are able to add much value to bitcoin. But who knows, even Scientology has amassed a large amount of wealth, and their ideology is even more ridiculous. But that's mainly because of clever marketing, and till now, the marketing for bitcoin hasn't been very clever.

Rpietila, hire me as an outside consultant, who is not an True Believer, but who knows exactly how the Unbelievers think. Let's make this cult big and powerful, and let me help you to be the beacon of light and the bringer of truth! Stop scrabbling for the mortgages and college funds of the regular folks, and let's switch to more potential targets, like the inexperienced youth who have inherited a large amount of wealth. Let's stop this meaningless fighting between us and let's join forces, so I can help you have eight late-teen wives and present yourself as an demigod!

No, even if they immediately exchange for another currency, it still creates a demand when people use BTC.  While that BTC is in the air, it can't be used for anything else.  The number of BTC-days consumed in the transaction is a reduction in money supply.

I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%).

What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all.

It looks overbought.

too far too fast. I think a bounce up to 480 is possible and, by my eyes likely.

Europe is asleep.

I am am looking forward to some of these decentralized type exchanges, too; however, I think that it will take a little while to get the bugs out of them.  Nonetheless, I look forward to thse kinds of developments that may resolve some of the stealing and  the manipulation and whatever else they are meant to solve.

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight 

Yep we're still following the  fractal:

I don't really know actually. Bottom hunting is just too hard and all I do is play the MACDs week by week. I did notice that this 6 week cycle seems a little bit stronger than the last in that there is more volume and accumulation going on in the upper channel of the trend than there was last cycle. So the bottom might not be too far away. Maybe $250-$350. I don't think it will possibly go below $150 unless there is some catastrophic failure or U.S. ban, based on connecting the support from the 2011-2012 chart.  Of course all of this can be changed by major events. For example exchanges could open in New York.  

Those look really interesting! Possibilities on top of NXT are unlimited! 

Just what is offered, in your view?  The community seems relatively robust, but PoS is substantially less secure that PoW.  The layered products will emerge in any coin that has traction, so I'm not sure layered features are a big plus. Anonymity is huge, in my estimation.  Much bigger than the little features that derive from layered applications of the blockchain.  A coin is neither required nor suitable for most of those.  Parasitic protocols are not viable in the long term.   Merge-mining fees is the correct way to use blockchains as infrastructure for layered apps, not cramming stuff into the core coin, but other ways of funding a distributed transaction db may be more efficient.

Anonymity on the other hand is part of the core, necessarily.  Part of the core implementation, and part of the core value proposition.  For that reason, of the alts, I like MRO.  BCN would have been interesting, but suffered from pre-mine.  MRO forks BCN and fixes that.  The upside is the best anonymity in a working coin, CPU-mined.  The downside is extreme immaturity of the software, no market yet:  It's roughly 2 weeks old.

FWIW I concur.  I gave up on NXT quite a while back and started cpu mining MRO a few days ago.  Immature is right; but the potential...

I think I feel more or less the same way Aminorex does.  If it is to be considered a serious goal for a coin then anonymity needs to be baked into the protocol design.  Layered features can be built on top of the core - I've had some experience with that side of development myself and am comfortable with the future that portends.  As for MRO specifically, I also like the GPU/ASIC resistance of the PoW scheme.  

Note that I'm not insisting anonymity is an essential feature for every coin - I just think it's a valid and desirable USP, which will inevitably drive growth and uptake of the coin that gets it right.  Personally, I'm quite happy with the pseudo-anonymity provided by conventional cryptocoin architectures.

I danced with NXT.  But the chemistry was all wrong.

pure example of why control and centralisation is useless and can be avoided with minimum harm:



http://www.tuxboard.com/photos/2014/04/pas-besoin-de-rond-point.gif

hmm i dont know, i mean, sure there must have been people ending up in hospital, but i dont think it outnumbered the people ending up in hospital in countries with road signals..
The point being adaptation. but yeah, im no expert, just trying to provide you folks with some cool illustrations

any one seen this

https://coinreport.net/fincen-money-transmitters-bitcoin/

http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/rp/rulings/pdf/FIN-2014-R007.pdf

I bet the FBI sold their coins to the NSA

 


it was silly of us to think we'd get a piece of the action...

pumpy dumpy sat on a wall.

No it isn't. It means people who run Mastercard are afraid of bitcoin and are confirming it's utility by attacking it.

This is clearly the pre-amble for the big rally to $5,000

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

No, I am just saying the chart is pretty much screaming that it is coming. We could even get a slight (2730-2780) bounce before it comes, imo.  Its soon Monday in China already.  I think in the next 72 hours there is going to be a big one.

6 months isnt indefinitely..

Only 3 more weeks according to my best estimators.    For the next 6 months BTC should outperform.

In my day job, I construct systems which build predictive graphical models.  The best model I have for predicting XBTUSD right now puts the next bottom somewhere between 15 May and 30 May.  My best performing (F1) model of the broad US market (roughly, the Russell 2000) has a sequence of high mass concentrations at progressively lower price ranges in mid-June, early-August, and early-October.  Since there is no lower mass concentration on longer time frames, when intregrating over price points, these models indicate that BTC will outperform the market until Winter, when their mass diffuses.

So no serious answers then?

What is one good reason to have OKCoin on the foundation board if they are about to get shut down... There isn't one. And gox doesnt count, gox was on the board way before most the trouble and was also probably the only exchange to choose from in regards to having one on the board.

Shortly after OKCoin was founded, they received a $1,000,000 USD angel investment from VenturesLab and Silicon Valley Venture Capitalist Tim Draper. At the end of 2013, OKCoin closed a Series A round of funding led by Ceyuan Venture Capital, raising $10 million USD.

OKCoin just released an English version of their website that opens up their top of the line services, such as P2P margin trading, to the international market.

Yeah, I also overlooked the fact that to be a gold member you just have to pay.

All this is really saying is OKCoin gave us xxxBTC

Correct.  The broad market model gives me roughly an 12% edge on directional r2k futures positions over 1 month.  The BTC model is not mature enough to measure accurately.  The more parameters in your model, the more data you need to avoid overfit.  BTC doesn't have enough history to provide useful quality metrics on a scale more than a few hours, for models of this complexity.  I've tried to use some tricks to avoid overfit, but I can't yet quantify my success or failure in that regard, for the current model, with a usable p value.

can you please stop quoting that ripple-fanboy here? many have him on ignore because they are tired to read his ramblings about premined scams

Why?

UR the tulip bulb guys, right?

They traded the first derivatives too if I'm not mistaken?

yens is japanese currency and reminds everyone about mtgox. chinese currency is called yuans.

slowly creeping TDM

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

What the F*** does that mean?

Are you suggesting things are looking more bullish?

Is anyone reading this?  Is anyone reading Rpietila's responses to my simple questions?

So basically you are saying that your computer want not TOUCHED. Yet you came on to the forum to tell people that your coins were stolen (a lie) which you say that you did to neutralize any potential future threat - when you could have simply TRANSFERRED the coins to a new secure wallet. There - threat gone.

Why do you lie about this shit? We aren't idiots and you aren't lying about anything important. The only plausible reason you did this was so that you could get attention and maybe have an excuse to tell the world about your 6000 coins. Just like you decided to namedrop douchebag Justin Beiber's name for NO REASON.

Btw, I've been on this forum for almost a year. More lies. Id love to know the infamous entrance you are talking about. Of course, there was no infamous entrance. More lies.

What is it with you? Sometimes you provide good info and opinions. But when you are called out on bullshit you can't handle it. You literally spiral into more and more lies. You never admit that you are wrong or did anything wrong.

And you now, the stakes are higher now. Because you sunk 1 million euros into that hotel of yours. And hotels live and die based on one thing - REPUTATION. You need to get your house in order son, literally and figuratively.

Yes. Why? Is it still going up today?

Pretty much correct. Unlike most religions, however, you can choose to invest whichever portion of your assets you like, and trade the position in an out as you wish. This flexibility makes it difficult for traditional religions to compete.

I wish I could have a diversified portfolio of religions to make absolutely sure I wasn't going to hell.

Nonsense.

Your debating skills are impeccable.




I'm surprised you bothered to type that weak statement. It's a half truth and doesn't address my point. I could just as easily say the opposite and be as impotently and vaguely semi-factual as you.

I said war and hate. War and hate. Just because 2 religions coexist doesn't mean they can't, one or both, pump out hatred and call it love. Like hating not only other religions but hating other DENOMINATIONS in the same fucking religion. Like fomenting hate for women, gays, blacks, (name your flavour). Like supporting human slavery. Like ordering the death of people who say naughty things or don't follow arbitrary rules. You know, hate.




Or, religion does cause war and hate but it simply looks like a convenient peg to you. Your strawman efforts with regard to skin colour is ineffective and amateurish. I never said religion was "the" cause, and skin color *is* a cause for hate and war, like it or not.

Here's a recent war over skin color:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jul/06/mali-war-over-skin-colour

Religion is listed as 1st example of irrational causes of war:
"The Reasons for Wars – an Updated Survey"; 2009
Matthew O. Jackson: Department of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford,
California
www.stanford.edu/~jacksonm/war-overview.pdf

Religion was the cause for these wars:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religious_war

If it tickles your fancy, argue with me that religion isn't the 2nd biggest cause for war and hate beyond resources, as I stated, but trying to argue religion isn't a cause of war and hate only makes you look uneducated. Your deprivation argument doesn't hold up either so you may want to abandon it before I bring up the Holy Roman Empire or perhaps George Bush's Crusade. Oops...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-2626208/GuestLeader-worlds-booking-engine-accept-bitcoins-payment-hotel-stays.html

This must be the Bitpay news. Guess some noob social network employee got over-excited.

The link is not working.

This rocket can't go anywhere because there is no fiat to take it anywhere. But you guys can keep holding and watching this boring crap. Good luck with that.

gg bears. it FEELS like a bull market now. I know it's wrong to tarde with emotion, but what about hodl with emotion?

Wait that means statistically fiat has a 50% chance to go to zero every 23 years.

Is that good or bad?

Yeah I was sloppy and erred.  Thps it should be,  and the $ figure could well be obsolete as these prices change constantly and I haven't checked in a few weeks.

Heavy use of opiates past couple of weeks. Still recovering from damage taken. Thumb typing in bed.

I have the finger pointed on the red button personally. Jumping in @ 480.

Yes be wary of LTC, it hasnt got much going for it anymore and one of the pools has also been flickering around 50% has rate for a few days as well.

Not that hard, is it? Yet it always happens the same, because in humans, emotion drives reason and seldomly the other way around.

And of course, there are the "why did the price surge? any news? what happened? what about china?" cries. Because it couldn't be that price has a will of its own, as a manifestation of the consciousness of people around the world, and that there are some triggers that will incite movement. Nah, must be some NEWS.

Have you seen this?

Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

I'd be interested in seeing a better model, if there is one.

PQ=MV, M=k*n^2, n~r*exp(t)+f

Cheapness is near historical maxima.  That's all you really need to know, if you think BTC is technically and politically evolvable to serve as, e.g. SDRs, with probability > 0.001%.

I had intended to be levering up about now, but in the event I decided to keep it down to about 80%, so that I can short stock markets (and bull-ride the faster-cycling bubble waves on MRO, with the small amount suited to its embryonic liquidity state) while we wait for the party to start rocking.  At the dogleg I will lever up, if I'm functioning.  Less than 80% sacrifices too much, takes too much risk, for my present taste.

Yes.

BTC speculation to date has been limited to the extreme margins of motivated, informed speculators with massive risk tolerance and a visionary posture.  That's a pretty rarefied atmosphere.  Historically, the major enabling factors for expansion have been expansions in the carrying capacity of the channel for fiat inflows.  I take it as a given that one or more major capital markets will offer a public liquidity vehicle for custodial BTC in the next 6 to 12 months, so I think it's pretty safe to say that 18 months would be an extreme upper bound for the next bubble onset, which is likely to be a doozy -- a word which historically referred to the Deusenberg motorcar.

I have said these things many times, as have many others, I am sure, but when someone expresses a perplexity, and these points seem helpful to provide an accurate form of clarity, I will supply a reminder.  Accurate conviction on points of minority knowledge is a wonderful thing.  Since I am fully charged for the time-being, I have every reason to propagate this boon where possible.  You can bin me with the uberbulls a la Risto.  I don't mind at all.

Jed Mcalebd unleashing hell on ripple (selling 9Bn XRP)
https://xrptalk.org/topic/2629-selling-my-xrp/

darkcoin: regular pump before it eventually fades into the abyssal alts graveyard.

Had some credited to my acc via promotion or something, never figured out how to sell them

One cannot compute a p value for that "inevitability".  He must be using linear regression analysis on the log price since back then, correct?

Indeed, and that is the problem:  many external factors are sudden and unpredictable, and the magnitude of their effect is largely unpredictable as weel.  But, in retrospect ,the causal connections are very clear. 

One cannot predict, from price analysis or any other way, whether and when there will be further moves against bitcoin by the Chinese government.  One can say however that if that happens then the price will probably fall by tens or dollars or more, depending on the severity of the move.  And if the PBoC reverses its policy about banks x exchanges, then the price may shoot up by hundreds of dollars.  On the other hand one can predict that if another store chain accepts bitcoin through BitPay, then the price will hardly twitch.

Since the last rally was due to the opening of the Chinese market, another rally to 10'000$ would require opening another market even bigger than the Chinese one.  Perhaps some big regulatory change would attract big investors in the US or Europe; but who can predict that?

It is not rational to expect that new markets will continue to open at regular intervals, each 10x bigger than the previous one, just because there were three such events before with roughly similar spacing. 

heh..he believes markets are entirely saturated already.  lol

Compare the marketcap to single companies, single individuals..it's laughable.

Maybe he needs to read what Marc Andreessen wrote about it today

TERA here is a graph for you:

That was the most important breakout moment and it was completely broken.
The shape of this rise is very different than the pump and dump bull traps that we had all throughout this bear market.
Obvious trend reversal is obvious.


You say bull trap.

Seems legit.


lol

It needs more than just a pump, much much more, ... like 17 million volts in the neck of that Frankenstein's corpse.

lol yes that's what I mean, mistake...

Price was much lower then, so raw coin value will maybe never be this high again.

Still, we're seeing 10k coin volume on a good day right now, but in early '14 we saw 70k on the highest volume day. I'd like to  see that kind of volume again eventually.

people keep saying this, but how do you know? besides say, secondmarket, isn't it all anecdotal? why is everyone so sure that so much is being bought/sold off the exchanges? i am just not sure i believe it.

It was the same in the last BTC runup. First, LTC was falling and falling, LTC doomsday prophecies were filling the air.
"LTC is dead!!!" and so on. Then, the LTC/BTC ratio suddenly jumped from 0.0075 to 0.05 in a matter of 1 week !!!
Same with many of the other alts.

I would never call the end of some alt too early, those little suckers are full of nasty surprises!  

Do you not remember way way way way way way back 6 months ago, back when it was the year 2013, long long ago, when LTC was .007 btc? 1/3 of what it is now?

Probably not, that was a long time ago.

Oh god, enough with this DRK crap for goodness sakes. Yes, there are dozens of reasons DRK will not overtake LTC.

LTC is a behemoth, with massive dispersement of coins and investors and hash power. LTC is ALSO a medium of exchange between other alts.

When DRK becomes the go to 2nd alt for exchange on BTC-E and Finex and Stamp, then maybe you can start this conversation. For now, though, DRK needs to be worried about MRO and Emunie, which have the potential to stomp a big ol hole its in DRKs head and send it down the road of every other pumped coin.

Darkcoin will never get the mainstream adoption of BTC/LTC

this is all about new coin vitality that you are enjoying now ...if and when it comes on teh radar of any government/political/banking sector it will be firmly stomped on teh head

Enjoy your kiddie fanatsy of smoking cigarettes down the back of the bus Darkcoin coolness... i.e creating a coin that by design is made to launder money & buy drugs is really going to go down well with society & the infrastructural systems that you will need to connect with

Also welcome to teh world of anybody who has/uses DRK are now targets for law enforcement types

DARKCOINS future look really bright to me ...lolz

I agree. Although I also think any coin that can be traded for fiat directly will have a way to survive outside of Bitcoin. NXT for example will have this soon.

NXT, more than any other coin and ecosystem has already decoupled from Bitcoin.

NXT price is hindered by the lack of exposure - the inability to implement its code into large exchanges like Mintpay due to the fact that its not a bitcoin clone. This has caused the dissemination of coins to be slowed down and a price "cap" to be forced on the coin for a long time now.

However, it has no less than 100 different development projects in the works, more than any other coin besides BTC.

NXT is a long term play, imo.  It might be at around the same price it is today (in BTC terms) 6 months from now. But when it "pops" it has the potential to pop big and have that pop be sustained.

Its definitely the lead dog in the 2.0 world. For now at least.

I answered this some 6,223,678,221 pages ago on this thread.  "Success" will be when bitcoin (or crypto) gets used by a large number of people because it is cheaper/faster/safer/easier/whatever than the alternatives.  Not because one has a BTC stash to burn, not to support the cause, not to evade taxes or make illegal payments, not because it is hip, not to speculate with, not out of curiosity, etc.

Offline key/address generation and asymmetric crypto-signing of "digital checks" are undeniable wins that I am sure will be widely adopted eventually.  As for the rest of the bitcoin protocol, and the Satoshi blockchain in particular, I am more skeptical than ever.

If it is clearly stable and long term, even a few tens of thousands of legitimate users can be counted as success, I guess.  But note that there must be enough payment volume to support the miners through fees, once block reward dwindles.

I doubt that this thread has more than 1000 readers.  If having one skeptical poster here can prevent the success of bitcoin, then you should all dump your coins and get out of this losing game, as fast as you can.

Independently of its probability of success as defined above, bitcoin may be a fun gambling game, but is a terrible investment, because there is no reliable way to estimate its future value.  Unfortunately some sleazy salesmen are touting bitcoin to unwary people as a good investment, even as a hedge against the 1%/yr inflation of the dollar or the 6-7%/yr inflation of Brazil.  (Even with the recent spurt, Bitcoin's annualized inflation rate since january has been ~100%/yr.)  We see plenty of examples right here.  (Sure, if one had a time machine and could invest in September 2013, the return would be fantastic; but, with that tool, playing the roulette at Las Vegas would be even better.)  Thus if you want to help someone, tell him/her NOT to invest in bitcoin.

LOL,
http://www.coindesk.com/bot-named-willy-did-mt-goxs-automated-trading-pump-bitcoin-price/
http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

After willy,  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ob9Ak1t09Ao

Once upon a time, the majority of crypto investors had not experienced the burning side of a p&d.  Not true now.  Today, to have staying power, at a leading tier marketcap, a coin has to have compelling features.  LTC does not.  I expect DRK to fail on its snake-oil promises, eventually, but I expect it to outperform LTC by a nautical mile for a long while, perhaps forever.

Yes, LTC has historically lagged BTC and overshot its spikes.  I expect most of that positive beta will be embodied by other alts with better distinctives this time.  NXT and MRO are obvious candidates (leaving DRK aside for the moment).

Very unexpected turn of events @DRK coin

Interesting discussion as I really should sell some bitcoin right now as my only source of income is the consulting work I do for which I get paid in bitcoin.

Should I hold-off selling even if I really could do with more fiat?  

Required for what?

I don't think we're going lower then this tbh

headed to 630 in a couple days

Yawn.  Another "audit" that proves nothing, but reassures those who want to believe. 

At least we know the sum of the balances of all Bitstamp client accounts (if we trust Bitstamp, that is).  A useful datum, although useful to what I can't say at the moment.

I have no reason to believe that Bitstamp is insolvent, but, if it were, it could and would easily fake that test.  That the test is accepted without criticisms only confirms how gullible bitcoiners are.

Bitcoin is not itself a scam, but I have never in my life seen an economic sector so chock full of scammers.  Every crook in the world who learns a little about bitcoin would want to "adopt" it.  It is a much more lucrative and "safe" vehicle for scams than the classical ones -- stolen credit cards, counterfeit cash, phony viagra, nigerian heirlooms, penny stocks, ponzi funds, ...

Sweet mother....




We're retracing through this dip at a remarkable speed.

Did they?  Lots of stupid things were said about the internet back then, but scamming was not as big a problem for the internet as it is in the bitcoin world.   Perhaps because it was mostly classical scams (such as chain letters and credit card theft) that the police already knew how to recognize and handle.  One big "advantage"  of bitcoin is that law and police often cannot even tell whether a crime was committed. 

I just bought my first bitcoin. Exciting. Could some please share the actual S.R. 2.0 link. Thanks.

Great I go away for a little while and come back to this? This thread has gone to shit! It's the wall observer thread people. I'm not sure what this Stolfi character has to do with the current movement of bitcoin price (Hint: it's nothing), nor why we don;t ban an account whos eonly input to this thread has been the same post repeated every hour or so, claiming a mythical pump and dump.

That newbie is not me.

The Bitcoin Goddess is NOT PLEASED.  Guess what She does when She is not pleased.

Thanks, Cassius. Nearly 100% my own sentiment (although I hesitate to put a "very polite troll" into the same mental category as a regular, barely intelligible, run-of-the-mill troll... but that's a matter of taste I admit). Please note the unnecessary highlighted parts that I especially agree with

Something about a pot and a kettle.

I am not suggesting you are a troll, it is just that you accuse Jorge of doing exactly that, which most pro-bitcoiners do.(read text in bold)

p0peji has a point. 'Selective arguing' is just as common (if not more) among the Bitcoin optimists in here as it is with the pessimists. The difference is context: this is a forum of people that, by and large, are (or at least once were) excited about Bitcoin. So the difference between 'troll' and 'not troll' is not whether you argue selectively, but if you do so in a context that puts you at odds with the majority of the other participants.

The other difference is intention. To be really called a troll, your goal has to be to get a rise out of the majority of those who hold an opinion contrary to yours.

I'd say point 1 applies to Jorge, but point 2 doesn't. I don't really believe his goal posting here is to incite anger (although he's probably amused by the reactions to a degree). I've said it before, but I think he actually has the misguided belief that he somehow has to convince us of the error of our ways.

Slight spelling difference.... Stofli vs Stolfi

Late last year, it could have been announced on reddit that some ma and pa cupcake store had decided to accept bitcoin and it would instantly rocket the price up $50. Now we have Dish Network -- which will be the largest single company to accept it -- and zero reaction. So it seems we've been a bit premature to assume that we've broken the bear market with last week's breakout. I agree with others that we're going to "consolidate" a bit more before going up again next month.

Look at the DRK thread. Go to Bitfinex. There are screen shots and I have confirmed. Its not live yet, but they are setting it up as we speak.

Best thing to do right now?? wait??

I giggled.

For the educated, I wonder whether Chinese population is really bigger?

I tend to believe the main reason lies in RMB yuan. Chinese people has less confidence in their currency than other areas. Before Yuan collapses, China may inevitably take lead.

Oh come on... So China is a small-populated country today. Seriously?

Yeah... And Slovenia is the biggest country in the world.

Aaaaaaaaaaahahaaaaaaahhhaaa!
If only i could be bothered to dig up her completely ridiculous predictions from the last few months. She is completely clueless. All her trading is based on some weird obsessive compulsive disorder how Bitcoin will crash. She lives in a fantasy world full of doom and gloom.
We all can see how that worked out for her.

And whatever nutjob did it is already $10 down on a few hundred Bitcoins with absolutely no guarantee that the buying power is there to support his 'brave' move.

Nxt never dives after a bubble pop.  It just keeps slowly dwindling down to nothing, keeping the Nxt nutters hopes alive.  It's all a game being played by the (70-ish?) number of founders initially granted all the premined Nxt, just to keep things going.  They sell some for btc or give it away, buy it back to create bubble mania, then slowly sell it off for btc again.  Not only have they made a shit ton of btc (and thus money) with their pump and dumps, but have probably managed to increase their original Nxt holdings astronomically as well, further skewing the overall distribution.

Why such difficulty with the concept of time?  It is a partial order of states, each related to the previous, in which the local states of successors deviate from the local states of predecessors in degrees bounded by the uncertainty of the fine-structure.

LTC is oversold, thus it will go up on a short time frame.  LTC adds no fundamental value, thus it will go down on a long time frame.

Sorry for my ignorance but what the fuck are you guys calling magic monkey? Is it a price prediction model?

in the u.s., hold everything in a roth vehicle.  requires foresight.

I prefer to think of it as "the 665-667 range".

 

ireland actually.. its really a grey area here.. no official statement has been released as to how to handle the tax on cryptos.. and also.. it they state bitcoin and not cryptocurrencies.. would that not be a loop hole so i can sach out to euro from another crypto?

ya i was thinking that.. i was also thinking buy silver off asset exchange, get it shipped to my house(its an option provided by the issuer of silver tokens) and bring it to a bullion to sell. but would they sell it for cash? i preferably dont want it going into my bank..(reasons other than tax)

@cassius

im going to look into how much can be exported from america and imported to ireland, and the amounts that can be sold for cash with in a certain period of time. i think that may be more viable than trying to stay under bank limits and it solves other issues too.

ps. im 22 and only a have a GF who doesnt care about the money so think im good on the x-wife side of things haha

No - surely the neighbour of the Beast is 668, or 664.

Illegal purchases? Though given that the (US) govt will start poking around transactions >$10,000 (including "structured" ones), probably best to assume a defensive strategy in any case.

monkey says down a bit now, intraday.  still looking for daily gains through late next week.  

in case you care: monkey thinks the s&p is very, very toppy here on a daily basis (monkey starts to buy vol over the next 2 weeks, makes diagonal puts with weekly options) and yet wants to buy USDJPY later today for a Monday reversal.  monkey is contrarian on TSYs and wants to buy some now, some more in a few days, to sell late next week or early the following week.

My point was/is that wealth is still going to be concentrated in a few, so plus ca change.  As usual everyone here thinks the ideal of democratic govt is a bad thing but I'm not sure I want to live is digital fiefdom where Goat, Risto et al are the new masters.

+1
The best growth is a stable 0.5-2.0% per month I would think. A huge climb will shun people as much as a huge dip.

theres been some great dumping of NXT today.

More important question is - why would every bubble look the same?

I agree in the large term scale - but for trading successfully, we need more details.

In terms of very long term view, just go long anytime now, should be fine 3-5 years from now Or a year.

IMO we are at a point where we have a lot of high net worth, major corps, and invesent funds investing in Bitcoin. The days of huge swings, massive outbreaks, and downward spirals are over. I think we will see peaks and valleys in the range of 2-3% possibly at a faster pace than traditional stocks rise and fall but like I said to many major players now have too much to lose not to control the price. Not only that but if more retailers are to enter the "accepting" bitcoin game then the price has to show signs of long term stability and I think that's what we are seeing here. Long term investment growth, price stability for retailers to enter bitcoin, wider acceptance by the general public who don't have the knowledge or skills to enter a highly volatile market.

That's just my guess, he'll we could be at $1,000 on Monday. Who the hell knows.

Who is this everyone?  

As far as OTC transactions, If these people are selling OTC they aren't selling on exchanges.  How does that effect exchange prices?

Which is bullshit, unfortunately.

There is no mathematical proof that the mining problem is hard, or that it is hard to get the private key of any given address.

No one has found how to do either of those things efficiently yet, but a smart teenager may find one tomorrow.  Or may have found it  already.

But bitcoiners need not worry, if that happens not only bitcoin, but all current e-commerce protocols will be compromised...

i think he has finally lost the plot 

I often forget that y'all are not in my mind.  (Or rather, that y'all are not aware that y'all are in my mind.)  Sorry.

Nonsense. Without proof, you cannot tell a theorem from a well formed formula.  

So if I'm interpreting this correctly, CB's purchasing of coins is limited by the speed of ACH transfers of new USD to the exchanges.  So what happens 3 business days from now, when their flood of new $ from today's Expedia news finally hits the exchanges?

Yeah, I also do not see why it is a big news and why it should cause a rally? It is nice btc is accepted more widely, but buying with it still does not make much sense, rather than to make a statement. On Expedia, even money sundering does not make sense, as tickets are non-anonymous

Gox coins moving to Stamp, though, make much more sense as an explanation on a series of dumps on Stamp.

Well, Jed Caleb repeatedly confirmed that he is *that* dumb, he has actually started selling xrps. He is also creator and co-owner of Gox (12% shares). And co-defendant with Karpeles in the trial.

Still no real explanation for Stamps lagging behind ? With the amount of USD longs on Finex I would have thought some people would have panicked and bought them back into line...

I don't think it says anything about their solvency, insolvency would normally cause people to get their coins out asap which would have the opposite effect. The explanation that its the go to cash out place could hold but why all of a sudden ? Somethings definitely brewing, would have thought someone would be arbing the gap as its been pretty constant.

1000+ BTC instadumped on Bitfinex  

When do you expect some significant movement, either down or up? Tomorrow, next week, next year?

and a monkey morning to you.

monkey is getting more excited about long bonds
monkey remains short btc for 4 more days
monkey has generously funded my retirement by shorting USDJPY
monkey finally decided the s&p is doomed on a weekly basis as well as a daily basis
monkey's adoration of silver is reinforced

monkey is doing pretty well lately

Just watching 1d graph + macD, 520-560 are 50% and 61% fibo levels, its most probable bottom in this situation.

The most bullish scenario is bouncing of 600, but thats very optimistic.

She won't mind a bit if you mellivoromophize her.

They've seen how much money the bidders have and now they plan to milk it all out.
Seriously, an actual bank.

Sometimes multiple times such as when the Bitcoin world discovered there's a rather large group of people called the Chinese.

Dunno about premiums, but I'm willing to bet most names on that list would be very reluctant to put money on any of the current exchanges, let alone dick around for a week dripping buys.

@people who believe (lot auction price) > (market price):  That's how I made my fortune.
I went around from one grocery store to the next, buying up sausages.  I assembled those sausages into ginormous wholesale lots, and sold them (at a substantial markup) to investors wishing to acquire huge lots of sausages without moving the market price.

I usually agree with nearly anything that Aminorex writes, and I thought that MatTheCat was a troll; however, here, MatTheCat communicates reason.  Well done MTC!!!       

[Some other stuff]

I don't think Jorge is a troll, per se -I think he just decided on the thesis for the book he plans to write about The Great Bitcoin Ponzi Scheme long before he showed up here to start doing research - so now he cannot allow himself to be swayed.

Sad because he would probably make more money investing in bitcoin than he is ever likely to make from any such book.

Should I sell BTC before US auction of btc begins or should I hold ?

For a variety of reasons, including how you have structured this bet, NO ONE with any brain would take this bet... maybe if you changed the reward to dollars, then possibly, who would want a bitcoin that may have little value in 5 years.

Also, maybe change the amount to $700 or some other more reasonable and higher amount.. $580 is the current floating price, as you know.... within 5 years, many would even bet $1000 or more... as a sure thing in their thinking.

Something is apparently obvious, yet there is a need to read between the lines?  Seems like you are having a meltdown, Cassius, about something trivial, no?

NOT so obvious to me, whatever it is to which you are referring.

Is there toilet paper stuck to my shoe?  OMG... Why don't you just say it, rather than getting annoyed merely b/c you see something that someone else does NOT.  Each of us have our differing perspectives and senses, but the mere fact that someone sees something different than someone else does NOT make one more or less intelligent than another.... well, you may consider the matter differently, at least it seems that you do.   

Calling Dr. Cassius!  Dr. Cassius, does the subjects cognitive apprehension of the concept of external representation of self constitute evidence of some vestigial functioning mirror neuron activity, or is this merely a Skinner-box effect?

 

Cassius and Aminorex ...I really like you guys... when this all plays out... drinks are on me ...at a place where there are drinks and sunshine and bikinis : )

edit: fuck it JayJuanGee and Jorge you are invited too!

I say its the most stupid forecast and explanation I ever heard.

When no one really wants to buy and no one really wants to sell, it doesn't take much to move the price.

You typically don't "own" the house with a regular mortgage either. With a car, it depends on whether the loan is secured on the car or not. It's basically the same in all but name but it's human nature to work around pointless restrictions.

I am sure it's not quite as simple as that. At the least the "bank" will charge extra to cover their risk. Then your house could still be worth less than you paid for it when all is done. I bet there's some hefty penalty clause for early termination too.

Can someone on this subforum answer this one simple question, instead of completely ignoring it:

Q: In a closed door auction, where no one outside of it will know what the selling price was, how can Bitstamp, you, or anyone else know what the winning price was?

And don't just reply "The selling price will get leaked out" or some silly crap, as we know hearsay FUD is completely unreliable.

<quick, run away and avoid answering this question.  Again.>  

Seems to me like the spirit of the law is already pretty heavily subverted just by making a profit from lending money. You can dress it up how you like but it's all the same when you peek under the covers. What there appears to be is a heavy effort to conform to the letter of the law.

While many p2p protocols are useful, cramming every app into a freaking currency is asinine.

To be good enough as a currency to compete for the monopoly position of liquidity provider requires a laser focus on that specific end.  Any added functions create a tax on the economy of the whole market.  Liquidity abhors friction.

There are other far better, far more efficient, far more honest ways to incentivize the maintenance of a block chain for your bittorrent or twitter or whatever.

Any " innovations" that amount to embedding a tiny little lobotomized robotic Ben Bernanke into every computer on the Internet are quite unlikely to add any value.  Like lifetime of the universe unlikely.

You aren't going to improve chopsticks. You aren't going to improve the core function of liquidity - just make it efficiently usable.  Any " innovation" that makes it less efficiently usable is a SCAM.

That's the point of a programmable currency, the core system can stick to the KISS principle while allowing any amount of complex functions to be added externally. Some (a very few) of the alts have innovative features but nearly all of them can be implemented on top of Bitcoin and its by far the toughest network.

You sir, respectfully are an idiot

The sig was part of a discussion a you had with aminorex (iirc) a few weeks ago, I C&P'd it straight from the post but I'll change it shortly if its a problem. I quoted it as soon as I read it but there was some much better stuff in that post, very informative and much appreciated.

We're only scratching the surface of what can be achieved with the protocol so far and I wouldn't be surprised if the trustless verification leaves the use as a currency far behind sometime. The ten minute blocks seems like a problem but essentially it means you only have to trust any system that transfers ownership for ten minutes, be that stock exchanges, car dealerships, estate agents or anything else that requires a trusted third party to verify transfer.

EDIT: Got it:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg7132970#msg7132970

EDIT2: Doh, I get it now. Thanks for quoting an excellent piece from an unfortunately unknown source

Erhm, thanks for the info, I guess?

This drop will create the new floor on high volume.  One buyer is very bullish.  It means the sale price was likely higher than most anticipated.

he must have paid a premium to get all of them! is that not a seriously bullish sign or is their going to be fear of him dumping them?

Interesting, seems legit:
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2014/05/07/steve-case-tim-draper-back-bitcoin-startup-vaurum.html

are you saying price will go down because those coins will be for sale via new exchanges in developing economies ? and for sure they sell em for less than what they payed. and don´t forget ZHE MILLIONS of fresh bitcoins that will be available because of mining in the next few years ??!1!!

and what about the millions of coins that are already sold. shit, they may get sold again !  and those buyers of all those coins may sell them AGAIN. i wonder why btc price ever went above 1 cent with all this selling  

i don´t really think that more than 40 wealthy entities all just made bids below market price or just slightly above it, letting a 600ish bet win every chunk. for a single bidder to win 'em all, he must have picked a higher price.

if you are right than draper is one hell of a poker player. my guess is way above 700.

I am compiling a list of resources for a person that is totally not up to date and does not get Bitcoin/Crypto currency

The person has a finance background, and a legal background- the person is not technically minded

I have list of resources , videos, text, articles and good places to get key data.

has anyone any works they suggest may be suitable for this gentleman to read ?  (I get the feeling he is more of a reader than a video watcher, plus I have some good videos already- though if you have any amazing links please do share)

I am almost ready to send what I have, but just thought I would ask here if anyone has any good primers to add to my list or rather than me writing it all out again.

The gentleman is a man with very deep pockets and a group of investors, I have meetings planned with the person in question to discuss starting
a Crypto/Bitcoin relegated company here in the UK -

I am looking for good text primers for a person new to crypto but that has a good finance background,  not too basic, not too full on   have you any suggestions that I can add to my ever growing list ?  I do not want to send him everything, I am looking to cherry pick.

Already had one meeting with the chap in question, and before the next one I would like him to do some reading, so he knows more about where
his money is going to be going, before the next rounds of meetings- as the guy is pretty much a crypto newbie.

Thank you in advance.

You will be.... TAIL RISK MAN!

Who wouldn't be okay with it? Also 800 next week? I guess 700 max 750 if we will see some kind of rally.

Fixed that for you 

(Too lazy now to read that Kuwait thing.)

Monkey sounded an all-clear.  Could still wobble a bit over the next 90 minutes or so, but unlikely to break lower.

Given how weak his daily outlook is -- although it did stop wavering +/-, it is only weakly +ve yet -- I think he is tipping me that this sort of thing may repeat a few times before the next daily-scale impulsive move.

I only read you, Shrooms for the quote, because you are ignored some time ago. You seriously should try yoga, meditation, spending time in the beach/mountain. Your post reflex you are having a really bad time, day by day. Stop worring. Breathe. Go nature. It will fix itself.

My thoughts always gravitate to it being mostly to do with people just making a bit of extra money but more importantly more coins.

There are very few investments where you aren't trying to come out with a bigger pile of fiat, in general when you trade a normal stock you tend to buy a position and then sell (or buy if you were short) and leave with the profit.

With Bitcoin however people are trying to make more of the 'stock' than fiat (obviously a generalization but can you draw any parallels?) a lot of people are also all in in terms of how much they are willing to invest, to make more BTC and not more fiat without leverage you have to sell and buy back at a lower price. I seriously think this is one of the reasons people are so willing to sell their BTC for the chance to buy it back lower even though the majority of them would have been better to buy and hold.

Did anyone post this one already?

http://redditmetrics.com/r/bitcoin


Not sure why? Maybe bots are doing this, maybe it's because of Ukrainian bitcoin ATM news, maybe Roger Ver's tweets... Maybe something is about to happen.

Links pls, thanks.

So where are the 1170 BTC stolen? I don't get it.

Sorry, I don't gamble so I don't know how online gambling sites work.  You mean that they only take bitcoins, is that correct?

All of this because a little dump of Ethereum? What is going to happend when they dump all the 24k coins?

So why don't you contribute something then?

LINK!!!! or it didn't happen... 

That's the FUD story.  The fact is that XMR blockchain is about 5.5x the size of bitcoin, and that number tends to go down over time.


You might get more feedback if you didn't call it 'teleport'.  Sounds too much like pixie dust, so I won't take time to look.  I'll let others with more time do that.

I agree, Monero is already dead in the water. I have the feeling that Ristro invested a massive amount of money into it (which probably is the cause of the rally up to $4/coin a couple months ago) and is now doing his best to pump it to others here. He's going to have to cut his loose before long and switch to the next thing.

Once it is proven to be an advance, yes.  Privacy claims of altcoins have a dismal history.  You will have to forgive my priors.

I remember seeing the link, but I did NOT click on it the first time.  I have a hard enough time reading thread posts and keeping up with other things in my life.  As you suggested, I have been spending quite a bit of time on the forum recently, but I do have a life outside of the threads, as well.

Regarding the substance of your paper, it looks like a very well written paper.. at least the parts that I browsed through - of course it is 36 pages, and i am NOT a technical expert in the BTC space so I am NOT sure if I could give a meaningful and/or in depth discussion .. yet are you suggesting some of the privacy features of Monero, for example, could be brought to bitcoin through teleport technologies?

Well one thing is building on existing coins or another thing is creating your own coin... which the second really would NOT be appropriate to pursue in this thread; however, the former may be good to discuss ways that BTC may be improved that would help in its adoption in the security realm.

If it is a fair point, then why you going all HOSTILITY towards my post or towards me... you know that at least I responded to your previous post, and I attempted to figure out what your link was about.. more or less...

Well that is up to you if you recognize a potential problem and whether you believe that it needs to be worked on or NOT.... Either way, I am o.k., and it seems that I did misunderstand you, so I take back any harsh feelings that I may have emoted in your direction.   

I don't know what you guys are doing

but I just allowed myself 1BTC

 

for the records later on: 514$

if your average cost of a BTC is less than 400 and if you are too invested and have troubles sleeping at night because of this trend, or if you are afraid and not sure about your strategy, now is your chance to reduce your position better than later at a loss (if the price fall further). 

at the end of the last year and beginning of this year, I said it was a good idea to sell some coins (people who bought around $100-200) and take the profits while you can, and now I am telling you that you can still take some profits.... I am afraid that there is a possibility that many of you will regret not doing so later.

[sarcasm] yes, I feel sorry for selling at $6xx  , I beat my self everyday because of it, I could be making a ton of money if I didn't sell and listened to the bunch of perma-trollsbulls that hang around here. [/sarcasm]

It is still pretty fucked that they do NOT have enough coins... maybe they should have been accumulating so they could fill all new orders.. dumb asses.

At least, he has been thinking... which should help him to formulate more realistic views, unless he's on some kind of fantasy loop in which the thinking does NOT cause him to escape from his fantasy?

So, anyhow, I am having a little bit of confusion about why you feel necessary to jump in to support mmitech's various predictions - this one and/or his previous predictions? 

The US has already exceeded one of the three classic precursors of hyperinflation. Japan, Europe and China aren't too far behind, However, because most of the money is nominally  sitting in shares (US) property (China) government debt (Europe, Japan) it's all holding together. Once people start trying to liquidate I suspect it will all turn to custard surprisingly quick.

Don't worry, crypto will be here to pick up the pieces

And it must be the final dump...

Of course, people are losing money.

flash crash imminent

i repeat

flash crash imminent

Where is Tim Draper and those Winklewoss guys when you need them??

They need to launch this SUCKER!!!!!!

Nothing? And how exactly is it inevitable?

Huh? That doesn't answer my question at all.
I'm gonna assume you can't answer it then.

Still no answer?

just saw this in the forum

https://blockchain.info/address/1L2JsXHPMYuAa9ugvHGLwkdstCPUDemNCf?offset=100&filter=0



18k bitcoins incoming to this address today

They are legally registered in the UK. That's where their management and accounting offices are. The rest is still operated in Slovenia (servers, development, support, etc...). Specifically in the town of Kranj...

Happy?

There is a thread in service discussion about it.
If you assume 10k btc volume per day it would be around 14.5 k btc from fees. But they will also have expenses over the year..

Well thank you, gentlemen. (｡◕‿‿◕｡)
To be honest, I don't even care that much anymore whether the price goes up or down but I'd really like it to start already.
Come on Bitstamp, launch the site or admit it's not happening but for God's sake don't keep everyone waiting for eternity.