All posts made by boumalo in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 5132979 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.08h):
398$ on Mtgox right now, low at 385$ for the day!
Can someone confirm me that it is so low on mtgox compared to the other exchanges because the mtgox clients prefer to hold cash than bitcoins in case of mtgox shut down?
2.
Post 5279380 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.15h):
Mtgox published a new statement? Where can I find it?
Has it been confirmed that someone stole them their bitcoins?
3.
Post 5443804 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.22h):
If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.
the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way down (similar to 2011)
I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again
currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero
I have the same sentiment; I think a new correction should happen, it may be brutal, sudden and deep : as low as 200-230$
After this correction I think we have a lot of room to move up to a higher than 1200$ and potentially a lot higher, we may see 2000$ at the end of 2014
4.
Post 5485987 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.23h):
Wow that is so totally bullshit what is happening right now. I think a big fat trap before we go sub 500...
I have this feeling as well, I am out of BTC right now so I sure hope I am write I don't want to see myself buying back at 1300$+ in a few weeks
Let's go down to 400$ then up up up
5.
Post 5681737 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.26h):
All good news, no more Gox to stop us. Jet packs are full. Prepare to strap in, bears.
People should give no weight to "good" news to up the price because... yadda...
Clearly you're new here. This is the speculation thread. We do not require any factual data to support our assessments. There has been good news: the price will go up. One need only wait long enough.
I've been reading the last couple thousand pages from the sidelines thus I have a "moderate" understanding of how this particular "game" is "played", don't worry. I was just pointing out the power that people give to the news, usually unintentionally and without understanding the process.
Even speculation needs "stimuli", and some will provide "stimuli" to those who have developed an addiction for it. Even reloading this page 100 times a day (as most will be familiar with) is a way to quench the thirst for the news/stimuli addiction. We need mooooaaar data to speculate, or decide on what/when to sell or buy... links, rumors and everything. It's the way it goes. And, well, it's exploitable. That's just the reality of it.
That is a lot of pages to read!
Would you advise to buy hold or sell now? I have fiat waiting, I can't decide if I should wait a bit, I bought some already and I may buy if it dives or start going up
6.
Post 5841128 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
The price is going down, the question is when will it stop
I will start buying soon and all the way down, "They" are probably preparing for a huge bull market in the summer
7.
Post 5844513 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
Price was on a steady decline last summer until it become clear that Gox's excuses for fiat withdrawal delays were bullshit. We don't have similar circumstances to put the brakes on capitulation this time.
You would think that the bad news about mtgox was not going to stop the decline...
I see plenty of reasons that can put the brakes on capitulation : adoption growing, people coming back to BTC because they think the price went down enough, inflation, Janett Yellen saying she will increase QE, a new and bigger European debt crisis...
8.
Post 5844823 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
You spend an awful lot of time and effort being skeptical of Bitcoin. Is there anything you're optimistic about or are you just a generally skeptical guy?
Not much... I see that the world is in a terrible mess, and paths to a better future are long, narrow and lost in the fog of uncertainty...
My country seems to be moving in the right direction, finally; although it too has a long way to go and its enemies are formidable.
The world is turning away from nuclear energy, coal and oil, hopefully to wind, hydro, solar. Even if these are more expensive now (not of nuclear it seems), the price will be worth it, IMHO.
Right now I can't think of anything else that feels positive. Human rights, on the internet or outside it, are not progressing, somtimes are going backwards. (Intenet censorship is much worse now than it was in the 1990s, especially in the "free" countries.) Agriculture is becoming more and more "inhuman". Industry is centralized in megacorporations that use patents to stifle competition. And so on...
Even cryptocurrency, a potentially nice idea, has become the "property" of a swarm of scumbags, that make bankers look like angels of virtue and generosity. in comparison.
There are many reasons to be pessimistic but let me give you a few reasons to be optimistic :
More and more people are starting to understand that a big government is bad for them and protect the big corporations instead of protecting them; the freedom ideas are travelling fast on internet, everyone can get to understand them by watching a few videos of Stefan Molyneux :
https://www.youtube.com/user/stefbotAsia is developing and parts of Africa too
9.
Post 5845003 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
im supposed to not wire more fiat then i can lose but i might have to do it
A monetary loss cannot be measured just in dollars, you must consider what it could mean to your life, now and in the future. If you have a few million $, losing 100 k$ is only an inconvenience, and you will probably recover those 100 k$ in a matter of months . If all you own is a house worth 200 k$, losing 100 k$ is a big trauma, may even cost your family and you may never recover those 100 k$.
If it helps you decide, I am going to change my signature from "rather skeptic" to "very skeptic". I now put the chances of Bitcoin (specifically, not some future crypto-coin) becoming a significant currency of e-commerce at about the same level of myself becoming Pope. And it has nothing to do with price evolution or recent news.
So you are saying don't
just measure dollars but
relative dollar, you can still measure in dollars.
As for your opinion I'm curious, what do you define as
e-commerce?
In December 2012 I had finished my thought experiment and Bitcoin education of 20 months. (My skepticism was based on the fact my investment had over a 300% return. I could see no way for it to succeeded as a currency other than in black markets where there were greater inefficiencies. My conclusion was the velocity of Bitcoin couldn't justify the price (silk road accounting for approximately 80% of Bitcoin commerce.)
So I sold all but the fiew coins I mined. Needless to say over the following 12 months Bitcoin went from $10 to $1,000.
The shock (lost opportunity) made me reconsider my assumptions.
I finally reconciled my understanding with the fact Bitcoin could be used as a currency for e-commerce, if it's price collapsed.
But it's killer app was store of value and vertual commodity.
Since then my trading style has reflected that understanding.
I would love to know what it is about Bitcoin that has entrenched you skepticism ?
I swapped him on to my ignore as it is the same story with new vocab. I don't even know why he posts here per say...but we all arrived here somehow.
I do come here to gain a better understanding of other peoples sentiment and outside opinions to help me develop my own conclusions. Jorge focuses too much of the human aspects; exchanges run by shady char, faked volume due to 0% fees, sleeping Chinese traders, sociopaths who would take your fiat or bitcoin all the same. I invested in bitcoin ultimately because it is a technological revolution of financial accountability at its core, the many aspects of bitcoin that then stem off of this are equally impressive and innovative in my opinion.
This post can be interesting bc you get to know how people feel and sometimes you learn a thing or 2
Sometimes it makes me think about some aspect of Bitcoin that I didn't think of but I come here mostly for entertainment as I am not even trading BTC; I buy it when I can; if the price is lower I can buy more so I am happy
10.
Post 5845414 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
How low do you think it will go this time? I want to buy back in a 100. Will I get the chance?
No
Why not?
When BTC gets as low as $100 you can forget your $2500,- per BTC price.
Honestly, that would be impossible. Yes I know, 2 years ago they said the same about the price reaching $100,-. And the year before that they said it would never reach $50,-.
If it goes as low as a $100,- major BTC holders are pretty much fucked. Whomever hopes for coins that reach $100 should buy altcoins and stay away from BTC.
The price right now is a price to buy in. IMHO.
The price could go as low as 250-300$ before it start climbing to new highs, I understand what you say about BTC being fu.cked if the price goes as low as 100$ but you can think of a scenario where the price goes as low as 100$ then climb to new highs
Some big BTC holders are waiting for 2000$ 3000$ 5000$ or sometimes way more before they will sell, traders follow the trends and everyday tens of persons that didn't Bitcoin a few month ago are buying a few BTC or more in hope of a long term gain
11.
Post 5845835 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
The world is turning away from nuclear energy, coal and oil, hopefully to wind, hydro, solar.
Keep in mind that we need a fossil fuel-based infrastructure to produce solar panels, windmills and other so-called renewable energy sources. Producing things like electric cars and solar panels is very expensive (and extremely energy intensive), having a very low EROEI. We depend on oil and coal in ways most of us can't even imagine. (More than 95 % of everyday products we're dependent on, are either made from oil directly -- or indirectly reliant on a fossil fuel-infrastructure.)
An oil-based infrastructure is essential for our civilization -- so now, when we're running out of these types of fuel, this civilization must necessarily grind to a halt. And that's exactly what we're seeing, although the crisis is camouflaged as a debt/credit crisis.
Expect to see a lot harder austerity measures and bankster bailouts (and bail-ins) as the fight over ever scarcer natural resources intensifies.
Without Petrolum we won't even have the time to think about the environnement because we would be too occupied to survive
Petrolum allowed us to build so much and allowed us to have time and ressources to pursue other projects than just feeding ourselves
Solar panels, windmills and "renewable" energy sources don't only use fuel-based infrastructure, they use a lot of rare metals and you need to use a lot of water and pollute a lot to extract a rare metal
12.
Post 5846466 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
There are many reasons to be pessimistic but let me give you a few reasons to be optimistic :
More and more people are starting to understand that a big government is bad for them and protect the big corporations instead of protecting them; the freedom ideas are travelling fast on internet, everyone can get to understand them by watching a few videos of Stefan Molyneux :
https://www.youtube.com/user/stefbotFor me, that is one of the most scary things: large numbers of people being convinced that governments and laws are bad, and therefore rejecting democracy and democratic politics. Historically, those people have always been instruments of parties that overthrow democratic governments to install opressive dictatorships.
Asia is developing and parts of Africa too
China and Southeast Asia seem to be improving, not sure about the rest. Parts of Africa are getting worse...
Big government has nothing to do with democracy; a big government is an opressive dictatorship that steal your money and your freedom
Such a huge portion of humanity has left poverty in the last decades
13.
Post 5848297 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
Finally he said, "But..." and there was a long pause as he was out of arguments. I interrupted and said, "What you're realizing in this moment is the paradigm shift. Western Union, out of business. Credit card companies, out of business. Banks? Well, we will see."
He recognized it could change all payments, credit, cash, checks, international, and that it could possibly put a hurting on bank fees. He held onto the fact banks still make loans. I didn't have the heart to tell him that might wane if they couldn't make absurd money from fees. He'll figure it out.
Credit cards aren't going anywhere. People live on credit.
Credit cards can be useful but paying with an android phone and a bitcoin qt app is even better
Paying with a smartwatch connected to a bitcoin app could be pretty nice as well
"Actually I have no strong feelings about what its price will do in the medium term. Its price is not tied to anything, there is no argument that would justifify why its price now is 500$, why it was 800$ two months ago, why it can't be 5,000$ or 5$ tomorrow. It is the result of suply and demand, sure, but the demand is due to perceptions of future prices that are not based on anything. "The market" thinks that it is worth 500$, but no trader can convincingly explain why."
=>that can be true for other markets, there are some fundamentals that tell us that a price of 500$ makes more sense than 5$
14.
Post 5848692 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
Might this be driving the market atm?:
*Redemption of shares will be allowed on a limited basis as of April 2014 with expectation of qualifying for public trading of the shares via the OTCQX® under the Alternative Reporting Standards.
http://www.bitcointrust.co/Are the potential sellers who will want to lock in their 300% profit getting priced in?
who are the owners ? is this the Winklevoss twins Trust ?
No, this is the Secondmarket fund.
mmmm, their web page looks different from the last time I visited, and it seems that they lowered the minimum investment to $25K... I am really curious how will this work out for them and how will it effect the Eco-system, will be watching...
this fund´s performance curve is essentially the bitcoin price. so they put up a fund that is doing nothing else than buying in and dont let the people out.. poor millionaires, thy should have invested in gox instead
You don't have to deal with exchanges or storage, you will be able to sell your shares easily and your gains are taxable without having a headache
That being said i prefer having btc in cold storage like i prefer having gold in a safe than paper gold
15.
Post 5849492 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
a lot of us here know how great bitcoin is, and so we expect huge money in the shadows all the time.
I challenge this for two reasons;
- institutional money is timid to enter the exchnges. it is a lot of risk to hold millions of dollars on an unregulated exchange.
- not everyone thinks it's great! we are in good company, but never far from a bitcoin basher. we would be wise to expect corrections to natural fibonacci levels than guessing that the illuminati is ready in the wings to buy billions of dollars of bitcoin!
Let me remind you that facebook bought whatsapp for 19 billion USD.
One of the differences with bitcoin is that it remains very difficult for any new investor to come into bitcoin and to acquire large holdings without causing the price to be upwardly affected. Certainly anything even approaching 1 billion in bitcoin would take time to acquire.
All the bitcoins is valued the same as Whatsap, it is 2 very different things though : whatsap can make facebook a lot of money and has a HUGE clients base
Fuck me, i blame it on those 350ug acid tabs, but i´m feelin bullish for
BTC again.
I hope i won´t get burned for all that love about BTC(price).
Just bought 30 new coins.
If we go below 490$ i will never post again, promised.
better get your last posts in quick bud : -)
I am sure that there would be many more posters here, who would be willing to take a bet that we will NOT breach $490 within the next two weeks. Personally, I am ON THE FENCE about whether I would make such a bet. I am inclined to think that if we do breach $490, such a breach would be NO more than a few hours, and such breach would only come as a result of some major news or even some fake news that allows a certain level of panic and/or manipulation. I have considerable difficulties even with any belief that we would breach $510 in the next couple of weeks, without something dramatic occurring.
I don't know if we will brake the 510 or the 490 resistance but it doesn't seem that far away
16.
Post 5850433 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
He nailed one thing for sure: the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?
The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons.
We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat.
Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left.
I think the first major resistance will be in the $530 range:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=526445.0After that the daily 300 EMA is in the 470 area. Anything below that to $400 is going to be a major dogfight.
I expect the bulls to start putting up a real fight soon. This could continue lower for another month or two, but I think we are going to be running out of steam for the bears shortly.
If we see anything below $380, then I will celebrate with joy, because I have about $200k in fiat ready to go all in at any prices that gets that low.
The chances seem pretty high that you are going to be left behind if you are waiting for such pie in the sky numbers that are in the below $400 range. I will grant you that it is possible to go into the 400s.. possibly down to $470... but it is likely that the bulls will be fighting before it reaches $470.... unless it just happens to be a flash crash based on hyping news.
If you think that 450$ is a great buy and that the price will go up to high 4 digits within a year you are better off buying as much as much now
I don't have much BTC and I am afraid the price will jump up too soon before I can get more BTC
17.
Post 5856317 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
Yes, but then those coins are sold or traded or used to purchase items, they always eventually make their way back into the regular economy or are lost. Just like 99.9% of US dollars have traces of drugs on them. If you don't think that every single paper dollar in existence hasn't been used or will be used for some sort of shady transaction, you are very mistaken. Just because people steal bitcoin doesn't mean that bitcoin shouldn't be used.
The problem (actually, just an aggravant to the main problem) is not coins that have passed through the hands of criminals, but coins that are STILL in the hands of criminals.
Criminals should be stopped and prosecuted, not the currency they use.
Agree 100%, but very few of those criminals seem to be prosecuted. (I know of one case in China,, are there any others?) The vast majority of the "thieves" remained unknown and kept their booty.
I doubt a large percentage of these criminals are just hoarding the bitcoin, they are probably selling it, buying things, and probably losing their private keys to their shady partners
Is that so? If a thief spends a few bitcents of his booty now to buy a pizza, the payment will be visible and the police could catch him by following the delivery boy. As long as he leaves the coins untouched, he cannot be traced through them, and they cannot be taken from him. If he waits for a few yers he may even be beyond the reach of the law.
And the problem does not get solved if he has to give the keys to other criminals like him.
EDIT: furtehrmore, 600,000 BTC are not easily spent or sold...
The problem is not the money but the theft
For info quite a few criminals using bitcoins have been prosecuted, ex :
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-09/miami-bitcoin-arrests-may-be-first-state-prosecution.html alleged criminals
18.
Post 5858825 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
When will people start buying bitcoin again?
Each time someone is selling BTC someone is buying, there are a lot of buyers and a good portion of them hold for long term after they bought
There has been a lot of bad news and the mtgox fiasco but the price has been resisting quite well, some think there will still be a huge correction, I think it is possible but maybe we had the correction and we are heading to a new spike up in price this summer or in fall 2014
The USD is doomed so the BTC/USD price is meant to go up tremendously if Bitcoin doesn't die
19.
Post 5863707 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
Wtf did I just watch.. yes it's a scam
He worked on this sc.am bc he designed this software but it is what it looks like...
Bitcoin's forums are still the wild west, let's be careful
Oh, we are back to discussing my person... looks like someone really needs that lesson.
Well, you put yourself out there.
You post in the busiest thread in the forum (and this thread only), are quite opinionated to the contrary, and don't own any coins. People questioning your motives is going to be normal. And since we seem to be guinea pigs within some data collection experiment of yours, yeah, your not going to make many friends.
We need some people that don't believe in Bitcoin and that are very sceptic, when they argument well it can be interesting and it is healthy; when they don't they are just trolls
20.
Post 5865540 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
China, the brics nd the oil producers are supporting the USD less and less and the FED is growing the money supply so the USD will collapse, probably brutally
Right now the talks about a recovery are luring the investors but they will finally stop finding excuses to the bad data that keeps coming and they will capitulate nd understand the crisis never stoped, the FED just delayed the necessary turmoil, it will be more difficult bc it has been delayed
21.
Post 5867038 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
People are drun.k and tired in North America, we will go to sleep soon and people are waking up in Asia, they will take over
Tweets are not news. They are rumors.
Agree ... and we should not just follow every rumor that we hear ... or read..
As for now... price is upredictable as it was before
And the price seems very predictable. It has been going down for months.
I understand that you think it will still go down, I disagree
22.
Post 5875390 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
does this look like a perfect double, nay tripple-bottom to anyone else?
It needs more time if you ask me.
and more volume.
this is just some guy dumping his coins down to 550.
maybe big asic farms? sam from knc, or valery and ghash?
I also saw a thread here on btt where bitmain was selling his 12k coins earned from s1.
so it doesnt matter really.
It could be an early adopter, a company, a miner or a whale that bought up in 2013 but hopefully it is not someone with inside infos that the price will go down more bc of bad news
I want to accumulate some coins before the bull market resumes, the price has been going down for 2 months now
23.
Post 5876271 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
The lesson is never put money on an exchange more and longer than really needed
It is good advice for long term investors and people who buy/sell bitcoins for commerce purposes.
As others have observed, however, speculative traders need instant access to their coins with no prior warning; and they seem to be responsible for almost all the trade volume on any exchange, and most of its total account balance. The exchange, on the other hand, needs to ensure that its clients will honor their sell offers immediately.
A prudent bitcoin trader will divide his business on a few exchanges and cash out some of his winnings not to risk everything but it is convenient to have all its cash on one exchange instead of paying fees all over the place and not having enough cash to buy when needed
24.
Post 5883705 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
The guy on that last video was getting a little too excited considering the speed that train was going though. Much like some of us here I believe.
Yes hahaha the video is so funny
Comment of a youtuber 2h ago :
"At first you think "what a loser." Then you remember that millions of people do the same thing to football and its completely acceptable. Its his hobby."
My nephew is really interested by trains, he may not scream that much if he sees a train he likes but close
25.
Post 5884665 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
ehhh, I don't like the way this looks, I said a few days ago I thought we had one more big dip left before we take off, and I still think that way.
<snip>
Wild guess on timeframes? <500 before the end of this month, >1000 by the end of April.
I did quite well accumulating between 500 and 450 the last 2 big dips, I'm still thinking we could see the mother of all triple bottoms before April hits.
of course, it's still just a feeling, a "wild guess". Just be careful out there.
It is the way I "feel" myself, one more big dip before we rise but a bigger and more agressive dip this time, a scary dip
Let's see
26.
Post 5922219 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
It really feels as if the market wants to test/break the trendline.
All this resistance up to 600 and 620, but this price action is being stubborn. It really feels like we are one big buy from shorts running to cover and getting a powerful move to test 620. The charts have not felt impending bullish to me in months now, although I will admit this is more of a gut feeling than anything.
Personally I would love for us to test $400 again as I have a lot of fresh fiat coming to the markets soon. But I am not sure this train is going to wait for that.
We might be lucky to see $540 again.
It is very nice to understand where the price is going from there in the short term
I have change my mind too many times to make a new prediction
27.
Post 5924270 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
If i had to choose between China and Gox manipulation, i would take the latter.
It dipped right before we get to know about gox bc some people were in the know
bitcoin banned - confirmed.
Are you trying to induce auto sell from bots??
28.
Post 5925300 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
I would like to explain the effects of good news vs bad news on the price of bitcoin (how it may convince people to buy or sell or hold):
I will refer to Joseph T. Klapper, who in 1960 wrote of the limited effects model of the media: the media do not have predictable effects. The effects of the media are small and unpredictable. The reception of a message depends on the source (credibility) and topic (preexisting opinion) of a message. The role of the media is to reinforce existing opinions. Confirmation bias. The media are more likely to reinforce opinions than to change them. Political campaigns and ad campaigns will typically find their way to those who are already among the converted.
Think about this carefully when interpreting the effects of news, good or bad.
It's also important to note that although belief in the limited effects theory later declined, to a perspective that the media did have a strong effect, but more nuanced and subtle and difficult to gauge, the general rules about the effects of media on the public still hold true. We consider ourselves opinion leaders, and this being a bull forum, might influence our decisions more than we might care to admit.
“The effort to state an absolute fact is simply an attempt to achieve what is humanly impossible.” “All I can do is give you my interpretation of the facts.” - Ivy Lee
If I understand your point, you're saying that this China news only had any effect on the market because mass sentiment is that Bitcoin is vulnerable and this news served to confirm that sentiment?
While that may be true in many cases, this one would have meant a mass sell off of a very large percentage of international exchange funds. In light of that fact, the drop was actually pretty minor and insignificant.
Edit: assuming the drop is over since the news has been debunked.
Sure. I probably should have mentioned the role of the id as well though. We are irrational creatures, and are affected more by emotion than rational information, regardless of what we'd like to believe.
This irrationality is also the main reason, if I can use that word, why I am HODLING.
I must admit there is a lot of passion and belief in holding BTC long term but you rationalise it not to stop being true to your passion
Most successful human traders and all trading posts are mainly taking rational decisions though
29.
Post 5932802 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
ppl really should stop getting exited about something like this really. So much noobs.
BITCOIN HAS BEEN DECLARED "NOT A CURRENCY" . THIS IS THE END DON't YOU GET IT YET ?
lol!
if thats not a buy signal idk what is.
Apparently the market doesn't think it is
BTC @ 523$ on btc-e
China matters bc they have been buying a lot of BTC, they are 1.3Billion and they will be the next richest country in the world by all means very soon
30.
Post 5934571 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
Its middle of the night now in China, it will be at least 8 hours before this news gets confirmed as real or not and probably more. Until that happens we are still on very shaky gorund
If it is confirmed the price should drop, we have been on "shaky ground" for a while and that is why the price is @520USD
Personally I think the trend and the sentiment are negative or very negative and there is some room below but there is a lot of room above the current price and most people think correctly that we will see a huge spike us in price within 6months so it should happen
31.
Post 5936237 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
Chill the fuck out guys and scoop up some cheap coins.
Buy some and keep some fiat to buy cheaper in case it dips more
It feels we have been crawling in this negativity and downtrend for months now, since the drop from ATH
32.
Post 5938848 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
Huge dark buy order on Finex. Has already eaten a few hundred coins.@512.66$
-> Great chance to sell without slippage
Bitcoin is crashing to 400$ this is obvious, whatever they said bitcoin is doomed to fail
What are you doing here losing your time on something that you think will fail? Trying to aware us??
It is not sure Bitcoin will get a lion share in the financial sector or in international transactions but when it will the price will be 4 digits in 2014 USD and probably 5digits in nominal terms
Until then it may go down more
33.
Post 5939562 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
taxing capital gains is often taxing inflation
People are now saving in BTC and are beginning to understand that their money isn't safe in banks, look at what happens each time there is a bank run : people can't withdraw more than small amounts each day or each week, it happened in Cyprus, it is happening in Crimea and it will happen in Europe
Everyone is going to get the advantages of being in control of your money and that a central authority cannot create more of that money when the USD Euro and Yen purchasing power will collapse in a short period of time
34.
Post 5940532 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
My predictions from yesterday were kinda not good as I see...
Instead of go up, price went down ... ~35$ ...
And no money to buy cheap coins!
such sad.
I am definitely running out of Fiat reserves, too.
UNEXPECTANTLY - In the past three weeks, I have been buying BTC since about $610, and i did NOT expect BTC prices to go lower than $610. I have continued to expect BTC prices to go up... but I have bought about 6 BTC between $486 and $610. If I had known (BIG IF), I would have saved my fiat and bought them all at $486... then I could have probably gotten 7 BTC for about the same price that I paid for the 6 BTC.
Maybe you can sell now and buy back when it's 50$ lower or you just patiently hold and wait like everyone else
I bet a lot of people are getting fiat to the exchanges to buy "cheap" coins..
35.
Post 5941147 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
The price is going down, when it goes down like that and in a negative environnement you feel it can go down very low
It will probably rebounce aggressively soon, let's get some fiat to the exchanges
We have a few technical levels that should resist, let's see
36.
Post 5941757 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
I'm really angry that wall street is probably buying cheap coins right now (not much, but any is enough)... they should pay much higher price.
Not likely, haven't spoted any large buys. If they did, they were $540 and $500 walls, otherwise they didn't get much coins.
True... but I think they are playing smart here. Buying more like 100 coin in a time and not going big, at least not yet.
I think the going theory is that if they're smart, they're not buying on an exchange.
True, but how many off-exchange coins are now in the hands of hodlers? There's no ask walls, so anyone wanting to buy has to build bid walls, which may buy me enough time to sell my motorcycle or rob a liquor store so I can post margin.
I'm on my third pack of cigarettes today. Hope my kids like community college.
Haha, don't panic
Now, I'm usually bad in selling at these bounces, I might just keep what I bought for myself
You are thinking it will go higher and then it goes down again
37.
Post 5942494 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
Is the retrace over already?
If you want my advice, this retrace will not be over for many hours if not days, and even forever.
Today was an exercise in picking bottoms for longs. not a good day for opening shorts.
Dr. Ly, if you ask me, ask chessnut about that tomorrow. You might get completely different answer
Seleme, you always misunderstand me. dont mock me. I talk in probabilities, when I note the market is changing, it has strategical significance, not always long term weight. I never knew there was going to be chinese FUD, and yet I sold spontaneously at 577 because I was flexible enough to change as the market changed. dont follow my advice if you dont understand it.
that is what everyone is doing, following the trends
And, for those who did not like either my bullish or my bearish predictions, here is the Chinese Slumber Method prediction. Since the Chinese did not sleep last night, the last data point (3126 CNY) is invalid (W practically zero). So the Method says to stick to the previous trend, which predicts 3667 CNY on Huobi and 600 USD on Bitstamp by Friday March 28 19:00--19:59.
very precise predictions, it gives you some guidance but you are probably wrong 49% of the time and still making a profit
38.
Post 5946786 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
if china go under 3000 again we will see some panic
Very exciting days for BTC traders; I can't wait for my fiat to arrive to buy some coins
So we're at 500. Is everybody happy now? Does this feel better than at 600? At 600 there was a reason to completely panic and sells your coins and now at 500 everybody is like ok, this is perfect?
How does that work in the mind of a panic seller. I just don't get it.
Or do we need to get lower again. Because 500 is now expensive. At 200 there are cheap coins. Is that what people will say next? That they want cheap coins?
I understand what you mean but there is more support @ 500 than @ 600 in the market, doesn't that make sense??
39.
Post 5960115 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
...
Is the news bogus? There is certainly reason to believe it may not be.
Some reason more significant than repeats of a single article that contained no proof or references?
It wasn't a single article and it was also reported by one of the most respected news sources in China.
More respected than Newsweek? Please.
Tv in China is watch by hundreds of millions of people and articles are read by hundreds of millions of people as well
There is 1B of people in America and 4 in Asia...The center of the world is already Asia and it will be even more Asia as time pass by in the 21th century
40.
Post 5960746 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
...
Is the news bogus? There is certainly reason to believe it may not be.
Some reason more significant than repeats of a single article that contained no proof or references?
It wasn't a single article and it was also reported by one of the most respected news sources in China.
More respected than Newsweek? Please.
Tv in China is watch by hundreds of millions of people and articles are read by hundreds of millions of people as well
There is 1B of people in America and 4 in Asia...The center of the world is already Asia and it will be even more Asia as time pass by in the 21th century
You're missing the point. Sometimes the story is wrong, even if it's a major news source, even if other news sources regurgitate it.
Yes of course it is; I don't know what will be the extend of the ban in China but I doubt Newsweek know more than a Chinese newspaper
Let's say hypothetically that the ban is real. How much of that has already been priced in? Price has been dropping for four months since the first ban rumors. I'm almost hoping it's real because like Gox and Silk Road, we can finally get past it.
I agree with you there; while there is all this negativity new businesses are accepting Bitcoin, adopton is growing, the financial sector is domming itself with its malpractices and a lot of young smart minds are tiding themselves with Bitcoin building infrastructure and innovating so within a year we won't even remember mt gox or even China ban and we will see a price in 5digits or approaching 5 digits
41.
Post 5960835 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
Breaking News:
If no one buys we won´t go up
If no one sells, we won't go down.
I have to think about that, but there might be some truth in it.
For now, Chona started dumpin a little bit. We´ll see how low this will go.
3600B mined a day. Selling wont stop.
3600B mined doesn't mean 3600B on the market to sell and how much fiat is coming to the exchanges from people who want to buy&hold?
42.
Post 5972618 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
I am not saying the causal flow is one direction. I am saying it is vicious cycle. When price is low, mining is attractive because it is profitable. Miners rush in. Mining becomes difficult and competitive. As a result, miners cannot sell their coins, because they would take a loss. Consequently, supply is restricted. Prices rise. Again mining is attractive. It is similar to predator-prey dynamics, or a coupled oscillator system, with all the quasi-periodicity that entails, but in this case, it is confounded with exponentially expanding demand. As a result it is a vicious rising spiral.
Exquisitely stated.
Not sure if that was phrased properly. The correct (at least in my mind) cycle is this:
1) price is low; mining profits are meager against power costs and effort. Most coins are mined by a few larger farms that use thier size to make a reasonable profit against the lower distributed power/space/cooling costs.
2) The bigger miners are responsible for selling coins or using them to add equipment. Thus, much of the fresh coin supply can be controlled by the miners.
3) price goes up; media attracts new attention, mining becomes more feasible, more small-scale users are interested. Many more people are mining and thus capable of selling their coins for the faster turnaround, price is allowed to slump, which also scares out buyers and puts us in a position like now.
4) mining farms and larger entities are gathering coins. Mining looks less attractive with seemingly overpriced hardware. summer is coming. This should restart the cycle.
This is just with relation to mining. the bigger image is the balance of people who are not scared to invest in a bearish market vs current holders who want to cash out in case it drops further.
You have some valid points but I think most small miners keep their coins, they may cash out when they buy new equipment with BTC that is sold by the miner company
A lot of holders who are here for the long run are buying more when the price dip
43.
Post 5976864 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
If FINCEN can:
1) prohibit US banks from transacting with banks associated with non-compliant foreign exchanges; and/or
2) prohibit US companies such as Coinbase from transacting with non-compliant foreign exchanges,
then bitcoin bulls are fucked. These prohibitions around the same time as the china crackdown = $10 bitcoins by mid-summer.
I thought regulation was good if BTC becomes an asset and can be traded and owned legally
nobody uses coinbase?
44.
Post 5977678 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
it's a fake breakout, especially at this time of day/week, it's lost momentum.
resuming long, risk is temporarily over. happy to make a penny out of the drop.
looking to short on a break of 465 however.
At 465 people will find a reason to panic sell to 420. At 420 someone will dump 2k coins and everybody will panic sell to 350. At 350 people figure there are cheap coins at 266 and will sell to get there. Reaching 266 total panic will break out and we will drop to 180.
holly molly i bought too early...
At least you should now that it's going to be 180$ before Friday
has this been confirmed?
From many sources including Reddit
It has been going down for 2 months and we will test the lows
489$ on btc-e atm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOBujrezJVE
45.
Post 5978052 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
We go down again
Last price 483USD on btc-eJust checked my Virwox transaction history. I bought my first Bitcoin on March 29th 2013.
March 31st 2013.
Downloaded qt, tapped some faucets, forgot about it, remembered in late may, saw the price spike
It doubled between end of March and end of May but you could have sell at x3.5 in the beginning of May, you must not have get your hands on many btc in March 2013 with faucets though...
46.
Post 5983901 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
March 28, 2014 - 10:01:01 AM CET. 16,179,745.59 USD 9,530.79 BTC 23,740.40 LTC
March 30, 2014 - 10:07:56 AM CEST. 17,255,586.49 USD 8,814.56 BTC 23,852.00 LTC
March 30, 2014 - 01:44:49 PM CEST. 17,297,316.35 USD 7,837.08 BTC 24,669.27 LTC
March 30, 2014 - 03:37:31 PM CEST. 16,070,695.32 USD 6,807.79 BTC 23,030.25 LTC
Never gonna give you up, never gonna let you down? well, some 1.2m USD worth of longs gave up.
Still, only buyers of 6807 BTC left to sell to now and 16m margin longs and only 11.3m of bids in the entire orderbook and a lot of those is just 1 guy.
such guy:
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 454.00 | USDSUM = $ 109068.96
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 449.50 | USDSUM = $ 107987.88
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 445.00 | USDSUM = $ 106906.80
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 440.50 | USDSUM = $ 105825.72
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 436.00 | USDSUM = $ 104744.64
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 431.50 | USDSUM = $ 103663.56
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 427.00 | USDSUM = $ 102582.48
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 422.50 | USDSUM = $ 101501.40
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 418.00 | USDSUM = $ 100420.32
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 413.50 | USDSUM = $ 99339.24
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 409.00 | USDSUM = $ 98258.16
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 404.50 | USDSUM = $ 97177.08
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 400.00 | USDSUM = $ 96096.00
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 395.50 | USDSUM = $ 95014.92
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 391.00 | USDSUM = $ 93933.84
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 386.50 | USDSUM = $ 92852.76
15:20 + BID: 240.24000000 BTC @ $ 382.00 | USDSUM = $ 91771.68
such balls. wow
Market manipulation or really playing against the market?
He could get a lot of btc! 1.6millions of buy orders!
47.
Post 5985904 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
looks like we found a bottom.
Did we? 458USD atm
We are in the region of the last low but we didn't rebound significantly yet, the trend is down and the sentiment is still
panickyEDIT 460USD
48.
Post 6001744 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):
Also 50000 CNY is almost 6 grand in € which is not much to some of us western middle class spoiled people but it is a lot to small Chinese worker class that is desperate for investing into stores of value that are not debased/stolen by their own government.
You are right there are A LOT of rich chinese people, there is more people in China living with the average european salary than in Europe but I think the chinese middle class is also buying btc, there are saving like they will not earn anything for the rest of their life : way more than 50% of their salary and some like btc
China is a nation that produces a lot and saves a lot, that makes me think of the usa before they became communist
It's not the Chinese working class who are buying BItcoin. Its the Chinese rich (maybe with questionable sources) who have much more money than the European middle class. Hence why the biggest property owners in cities like London are.... Chinese private investors. You're living in the dark ages. Chinese people have money and they want to burn it. Many have a LOT of money to burn.
See all the visa schemes aimed at Chinese, where they can buy a passport for places like Australia or Canada if they can spare maybe a few hundred thousand dollars? Yeh, they're over-run and Canada had to decline everyone because so many Chinese have that much cash sitting around. It's totally absurd to even mention the Chinese workers.
Also 50000 CNY is almost 6 grand in € which is not much to some of us western middle class spoiled people but it is a lot to small Chinese worker class that is desperate for investing into stores of value that are not debased/stolen by their own government.
It's not the Chinese working class who are buying BItcoin. Its the Chinese rich (maybe with questionable sources) who have much more money than the European middle class. Hence why the biggest property owners in cities like London are.... Chinese private investors. You're living in the dark ages. Chinese people have money and they want to burn it. Many have a LOT of money to burn.
See all the visa schemes aimed at Chinese, where they can buy a passport for places like Australia or Canada if they can spare maybe a few hundred thousand dollars? Yeh, they're over-run and Canada had to decline everyone because so many Chinese have that much cash sitting around. It's totally absurd to even mention the Chinese workers.
49.
Post 6013266 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):
456$ on bitstamp, it will probably go lower
Or we will all be surprise and it will spike up
50.
Post 6020231 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):
Can you explain?
2500$/btc I dt understand
51.
Post 6021612 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):
Now, they just need to add XPM/USD and I'll be fine, very fine
BTW, GBP is good idea, there's no taxes at bitcoin trading in Britain, that might bring more people to BTC-e. Their admins are pretty smart guys.
Maybe but in general theyre shady to deal with and I wouldn't use it for any significant amounts of any currency or coin.
They are more expensive than bitstamp for some reason
We rebounded at 480$ but is this an other small rebound before we test the lows again
52.
Post 6024495 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):
This is entertaining; back from 450$ in the 500s territory, who knows where it is heading now?
Some are waiting for a huge bull market but could it start so early?
53.
Post 6034452 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):
You will see the end of this bear market by these following indicators.
1) The price will go lower then most expected
2) The price will remain low longer then most expected
3) The loudest and the most enthusiastic bulls will start to blame bitcoin and everyone involved for the situation and then write dramatic final speeches of them leaving.
If you will get tired of seeing indicator 3, then it's time to buy, not before.
sounds good on paper, but in reality a guide how to miss all bottoms in the last 2+ years
Exactly, you can make money without buying exactly at the bottom though
54.
Post 6042718 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
Price is not bad at all
when you want to buy ;P
Worst if you want to sell
Most traders think that we didn't see the bottom yet; 436$ atm
A lot of traders think we will have a huge bull market before the end of the year after we saw the bottom of the market
55.
Post 6108636 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.34h):
Love seeing the price slowly increase. The sentiment seems to be changing and most people are starting to feel signs of a reversal.
At the moment and the sentiment can get even better but we can also come back to the downtrend scenario and test the lows again, it is pretty hard to know, we didn't go back up that much
56.
Post 6163289 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):
Aww man, i've been waiting for these drops and forum responses since the last ATH.
This feels just like the last 3 bubbles.
Endless news about BTC related startups and the amazing amount of value invested in getting these cryptocurrency economy fundamentals running only helps to confirm the global demand for this new payment system.
People said i was mad telling them >$1,000 in 2013. It will be fun to see if BTC will hit the $10,000 before 2016
To all the new investors: 2012 was a very slow year. But you would be very pleased today if you bought in 2012 at anywhere between $5-$20. Compare that to $250-$1000 in 2014 to get an idea of the feeling. Just hold on and enjoy the ride.
So little BTC, so many potential global users.
I am not too afraid by the recent crash even if it can go down more before it recovers, it just shows that extreme bad news are bad for the price
and that the price is very volatile
I feel like nothing changed fundamentally since 2013; the momentum is good in terms of adoption and professionalism but the sentiment is extremely bad
I am not close at arguments that we are going extremely low (<300$ <250..) but I feel it is an excellent time to invest in Bitcoin; the French shops Monoprix are thinking of accepting Bitcoin
57.
Post 6184495 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.36h):
When it is going down traders are saying it will go down more and when it goes up they say it will go up some more; extreme bulls say it will spike up to new highs very soon and extreme bears say the price can only down and everything is doomed : that only helps knowing the sentiment and the trend
58.
Post 6203061 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
$750 valuation based on what?
Numerous fundamental factors and several technicals converge in this area presently. You need to do some catchup reading. The bear case always boils down to fud - which is a legitimate and important factor. The bull case always boils down to facts and logic - sometimes erroneous but on the whole fairly sound ( although exhaustive scenario analysis is of course infeasible or even impossible). It is just possible that facts and logic will dominate in the long run. Not certain, but the upside is huge if they do.
The bear case is sustained by FUD, but it is not comprised of FUD. The bear case is that there are significant holders of large amounts of BTC with the ability to crash the market should any one of a number of things happen. They think the probability of at least one of these things happening is greater than the probability that hidden capital is going to launch a rally.
Bears also simply think that the flow of capital into BTC is going to be less than the flow out for a given amount of time. Miners would be buying their asses of right now if they had the capital to do so, because they know the price is substantially below the cost of production. So why aren't they? Coinbase price is only $2 higher than Bitstamp.
A bounce off of expected $400 support was on very low volume. We are always at the mercy of people who know more than we do.
Death Bot is on Huobi NOW!
Nice explication, miners are net sellers, weak holders that bought in last winter are solding, bears are solding for the reasons you mentioned and there is not enough money coming in to overcome the selling
59.
Post 6205259 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
There is only one flow it can take in the Bitcoin economy and that is from the sucker to the scammer.
The best definition of free market capitalism, ever.
When the sc.ammers are in power the sucker lose more, people complain about the private companies fixing markets but the FED is fixing the market rate and the USD
60.
Post 6206125 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
What the fuck is going on?
It just keeps dropping
It goes up then drop, goes up, drops lower than before
It will either go very low or go up for good at one point, I would bet for the later to happen before the end of the year but maybe after we tested 300 again
61.
Post 6206290 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
This is really suspicious. Somebody pulled a ton of orders so the priced shot down and then that possibly that same person scooped up the coins. The question is for what purpose? To hold onto them or to dump them again soon?
It is pretty hard to guess
We won't know when he dumps them; it could be any buyer with any motive and his motive may change
62.
Post 6211708 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Skimmed through some of your previous posts during falls and found these:
This posted on the 10th of April:
Finally
Now can we bounce of $400 and finally move on. Jeez
And one prior to the fall of MtGox:
wish I had like 10k on gox
And you started whining at me when I said that I'm not buying into this, because I don't see it as an good bet to buy at the tops of weak pumps.
So, don't try to act like you're rational about this. When one walks like a typical degenerate gambler and when one talks like a typical degenerate gambler, then he must be an ...
Lol hilarious, is that the best you can do. Yeah asking the question of can we bounce of $400 and move on is the very definition of screaming trend reversal, being a delusional bull and wishing to be a millionaire
No one can ever say anything about buying gox coins for $100 at the time the odds were firmly in line with the risk. Typical degenerate gambler my arse.
I said you were boring repeating yourself over and over again and could have made yourself some money without it being a blind gamble if you weren't a permabear. hardly whining.
Better luck next time.
Yes, it was screaming of hopes of trend reversal and it showed that you were among those who thought that 400 actually means something. People like you have been whining at me since I sold at 1030, that I should buy at 900,800,700..etc. because they are really cheap coins, so I could make some money. Majority of those people are fools but there are also some manipulators who want others to buy, so they can sell with better profits.
Yes, the ones who bought into mtgox in the falling days were degenerate gamblers.
Degenerate gambling is about making blind bets. There are bets that can be predictable and there are bets that aren't. There was and there still is no way of knowing how much will be bought until the price starts to fall down. And the biggest probability here is that the price will at some point start to fall down. When there are some important developments in the crypto market system, then you can predict that this will give value to crypto and you can buy with the bet being a lot less blind.
I'll never invest into into something when my money is only supported by the hopes of fools. The hopes of fools are fragile and can break any moment, and when will this happen, can only be guessed, not predicted.
And now, stop whining, because I'm not buying into this no matter how much you whine.
What you said kind of make sense except that you disregard every positive aspect of Bitcoin and the community that justifies a higher price, you disregard the money printing that will kill the USD and you are calling fools people that were called fools when the price was 10$ or 30$; they were not fools then and they are not fools now
63.
Post 6212434 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
When I say that I'm not doing anything right now, it's because I simply don't know where we're going.
I don't feel comfortable saying that the downtrend is over unless we go above $580. But at the same time I'm not as bearish as TERA.
I'm trying to stay balanced in my approach, so I'm somewhere in between bear/bull. I'm not ready to come out of the closet yet.
So what price are you buying? Are you in fiat or BTC?
64.
Post 6213553 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Maybe you could reduce it to 5main options, I recognise your love of being exhaustive
65.
Post 6216432 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
bear traps everywhere
Or an other bull trap
I am full BTC so I don't mind if it goes up
This last trip into the $300 may have been the last time
I have same opinion
And I see people are very optimistic too:) so price will rise with our support
320$ seems like a pretty good price to buy now!
66.
Post 6217511 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
I have to agree, I am uncomfortable at this price somehow.
short is the choice for now.
At this point I am not sure, I wouldn't be surprise to see the price dip again or a spike up higher than 500
67.
Post 6218755 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
This is a very dangerous game. The levered shorts are hoping another China crash will come before they are force liquidated and the levered longs are counting on the shorts getting liquidated before the crash. Smart players like TERA are long but not levered, ready to pull the trigger and profit either way and I'm on the sidelines watching and learning.
The swap fees amount to somewhere around 60% annual interest. The pressure is building and is going to blow one way or the other.
The bear market didn't suddenly end because some exchange decided to invest in ATMs. China isn't suddenly irrelevant. A SUSTAINED reversal isn't something that happens this quickly with no big news. If it happens at all it happens slowly as utility value replaces speculative value.
The question every wise investor asks themselves is "Is time my friend or my enemy?" If time is your enemy, chances are you are on the wrong side of the trade.
I'm inclined to agree with you, but there has been unexplained reversals in the past (or rather, you find out the news after the run-up, which seems more likely these days with institutional money). Nice volume today though, gonna be an exciting week it seems.
and the idea that there has been plenty of good news and progress buried in the fear of China's policy making methods
There has been plenty of good news and progress, but the fundamentals haven't changed overnight by 17%. Fear of Gox closing dominated until it closed. Fear of China crashing will dominate until it crashes. If it doesn't crash, that fear will weigh on the market until some even bigger fear weighs on the market. Satoshi coins entering market, FBI coins, another exchange getting hacked or closing, regulatory doomsday, another prominent Bicoin personality getting arrested, or maybe someone just happens to find their four year old hard drive with hundreds of thousands of coins on it.
Good news doesn't mean as much in a bear market. People are looking for an excuse to sell, not to buy. There are people with substantial holdings without enough cash to wait out an extended bear market. They are selling little amounts to get by, extending the bear market. Things have to get worse before they get better. Capital has to move from incompetent managers to competent managers. That's why it's called a "correction".
We are in a bear market because good news are disregard, it will be the other way around when we will resume the bull market
Odds are we will dip again soon, it is way more likely than the scenario where we are already coming back up but at some point we will come back up and it will be crazy
There is a lot of potential for a big negative event such as the mtgox shut down but there is at least as much potential for a big positive event and I feel that we can overcome most big negative events when positive events will have a positive effect long term; the potential is so huge, 450$/BTC feels like a steal to me
68.
Post 6222646 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
OK. just need to break 499 now before we are out of the wedge! then 510 is last major resistance, and maybe we will see the real short squeeze!
It goes up and then it stays really steady around a specific number, 460$ on bitstamp atm
I am betting on a bull trap, we may see one or two other dip before we get going this summer and in autumn
69.
Post 6236715 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).
No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable
Sorry if this point seems patronizing or insulting, but you need to be aware, in case you are not, of the concept of expected value. A very large reward at very low probability may have much higher expected value than a modest reward at high probability. Because the reward for owning bitcoin is so vast, in the fiat displacement case (which I agree is inevitable, albeit perhaps not with bitcoin as we know it today) even at vanishingly small probability it is a "rational" choice. The concept of rationality is debatable. But given the standard concept of rationality, the outcome is not really debatable.
We have a low probability of Bitcoin becoming an important store of value or used for international tranfers or online payments..
There is a low probability that it happens but the reward will indeed be huge if it does
A lot of traders make their trade then incite others to do the same trade by posting here
70.
Post 6238704 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
600 coin buy wall at $502 on stamp
607BTC but will it stay there if the price goes to 502$, we may get to know soon
71.
Post 6245294 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
They are just buying... lol no rest for shorts i guess. They want badly to squeeze them.
I bet part of the buying is from shorting that cut their short positions
Wow 40$ lost as I was reading the thread
72.
Post 6266027 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
Am i missing something?
Honestly i expect a fat red candle first, leaving everyone wondering what the fuck happened, and like 3hours later some link to some Chinese article.
That is a very precise prediction and I could see that happening as well, but let's face it : there is a lot of volatility and a +60$ out of nowhere is not out of the question
73.
Post 6274220 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys
this is my non biased day trading approach.
in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.
I'm a noob trader (no TA, only trade following news). Which indicators should reveal which direction BTC is heading short-term? Or am I supposed to watch the market book every minute and wait for a dump/pump?
You're gonna get eaten alive.
He can get lucky in the short term but odds are you will sell low and buy high
74.
Post 6297077 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
no bans on chinese saturday or sunday likely - maybe another reason why we are rallying.
I think this rally has flattened out, the question now is whether there will be another one or if we'll slowly go down again for a while.
I am all BTC at this point but I'm tempted to short and see if I can increase my coins.
well the bear run was so weak, and this is a strong and impulsive move that seems unexplained. I think the most likely explanation, we are continuing the bull run.
We are cruising at half a grand and it could accelerate; I feel the market is very sensible so if it tanks quite a bit we could go down a lot but if it goes up in the mid 500s we should break a few resistances
75.
Post 6299501 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
I wish someone would take a few months to gather all the predictions made in this forum and make a list of the best nd worst predictors
76.
Post 6300630 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
I wish someone would take a few months to gather all the predictions made in this forum and make a list of the best nd worst predictors
You need to have a standard how to measure the goodness of the prediction.
I said that the price would go to 450 when it was 850, and it did, 2 days after. Many thought that was impressive.
If I now say that price will go to 450, it is not very impressive.
In my thread there is a prediction contest, and the idea is that the average of other predictions become the standard that you have to beat, to get some glory and fame.
Yes of course
I wish someone would take a few months to gather all the predictions made in this forum and make a list of the best nd worst predictors
'Someone' has already invented such a prediction-validating mechanism. In fact, this very thread was originally created for speculators who engage in such predictions.
It occured in very rudimentary forms since ancient times, saw a further sophistication during Roman rule, disappeared during the dark ages (obviously), reappeared in the late middle ages mostly around Italian city-states, & finally, emerged in its modern financial trading market form in ~1602 in the Netherlands, as the Dutch East India Company's shares were first traded among investors.
Later, the ~1880's featured the advent of something yet closer to current currency/crypto trading exchanges - world currencies began to be backed by gold, and the first large-scale retail forex trades started taking place.
It wasn't until 1996 that the Internet gave these foreign currency exchanges the capacity to run the entirety of trading electronically. Various digital new currency projects such as e-Gold/etc were soon undertaken excitedly by a series of hopeful entrepreneurs.
..Sadly, in large part due to vulnerable centralization & the absence of math-based strong encryption systems as core features of these innovations, they ended up failing & dimming public opinion of
any digital currency concepts as irreedeemably flawed Ponzi schemes. Nevertheless, amongst the ashes of these unsuccessful experiments, a different, vastly more sound, secure & viable project came to light : Bitcoin.
It is thusly that in early 2011 the very first bitcoin exchange markets were founded, bringing us full-circle to the present day as we find, with the warmth of serene satisfaction, that exchange markets indeed offer the best mechanism through which to filter the least skilled from the most skilled predictors, by comparing traders' accounts' initial investments with their net equity several months or years later.
(Sorry, I just love history xD)Very interesting
"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=193526.0"
We have a few posts of rpietila; posts were extremely bullish and positive in May 2013, it is different now
77.
Post 6314476 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
We will know soon, probably this week, whether we are still in a bear market. I see nothing but trend lines acting as resistance still. But the bulls have yet another chance to try and seize the trend for good.
Can they do it? I'm still skeptical, but awaiting confirmation either way.
It's a strange market for sure, with many investors believing bitcoin to be over valued, and even more day traders believing that its going to the moon again.
I still think its the investors class participating that decides the trend and enthusiastic day traders simply a distraction.
Bad news are fading away, good news may be around the corner and if we break a few resistances and short are buying back their positions we are heading to a very high price!
That is how i
feel right now
78.
Post 6321867 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
uh oh, bouncing off the trend line!
Your best hope for a bull market is for someone besides Houbi to start leading. Because an exchange that's difficult to get fiat into is not going to rally us very far.
Someone from Bitstamp then
That was a short lived little rally we just had. I would like us to be able to sustain at least $515 levels and then slowly grow upwards from there. Any rapid rises can never be sustained because there are always people waiting to take some profits off of the table.
On the other hand if the rise goes high enough the short need to cut their positions which makes us go higher; a lot of traders are looking for the price to break a few resistances to get back in
79.
Post 6327784 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
we have a little bit of buying to do today to get us back to the $500 levels..
Why bother. Someone will dump to make sure we go down again. It happened like 5 times now. You'd be crazy to buy at this point.
Crazy to buy at $500? Many people bought higher than this. I bought some higher than this. I think it is crazy not to buy when considering where Bitcoin will be later this year or even this month! Also, there have been times where it seems like Bitcoin is going nowhere then shoots up to a new ATH within just a few weeks.
Calm down. I'm talking about this specific moment. As soon as we go up either someone starts dumping or Chinese fud appears. I would wait this out if i was a trader or i guess a long term buyer. We can easily go to 450 or lower again. If we break 520ish without someone stopping it i'd say it's buying time.
The current situation is pure manipulation by a small group of people if you'd ask me.
I am guessing that group is getting tapped out pretty soon. This has been going on for 2 weeks. I'm sure those idiots will be out of coins soon enough.
Not if they keep buying back the cheaper coins
and repeating the process
You would think some of them lose money sometimes and it will stop at some point because they will not be enough sellers and the market will move on them
80.
Post 6338809 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Dump on Stamp lets see if the rest follow...
A bear trap before a 4months explosive bull market?
81.
Post 6353695 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Is there any evidence to the belief that expansions in the bitcoin ecosystem, services & economy actually increase the price..??
...
So why in the WORLD is there this MYTH continuing about merchant adoption, growing ecosystem = higher price? Wtf? What am I missing..?
Welcome to the forum! Hope you've had the good first 6 days. Btw. the question is off-topic for this thread but let's not be picky.
Your question is discussed for example here.
Ok, though it's worth noting that a 'transaction' for bitcoin generally means something different than for PayPal/Mastercard etc - especially at this point.
For current figures, most bitcoin transactions aren't purchases, they're people moving coins to and from exchanges, between their own addresses, etc. Whereas I imagine almost every PayPal transaction is someone buying a Thing of some sort.
No doubt that will change, but the current figures aren't representative of use or adoption.
They still are to some extent; if the transactions represent real people who need to do the transactions; a growing number of transactions means growing adoption
82.
Post 6403990 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
good opportunity to sell right here and rebuy at 450
Good to enter here
Might flash 420, might not
If you are not a day trader don't day trade; if you want to become a day trader, try but you better be dedicated to it
If you think the price is going to go up in a few months, buy now!
83.
Post 6406649 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
There may be a turnaround at or below 200$.
So there's still enough space to the downside, imho.
This is a scary chart but we can break those lines and resume the bull market if everyone get excited again
84.
Post 6422079 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Still waiting for bitcoin death:) Just a bit more, few months maybe
I know i am just a bit impatient:)
It would make more sense to invest some time in something you believed in instead of being Bitcoin Mister Doom
85.
Post 6424362 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding
If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even
Your average cost is going down right now
86.
Post 6426505 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding
If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even
Your average cost is going down right now
If you bought at the dips, but lets think of the bulls (the ones who cry CCMF, with every bull-trap) who buy when there is somewhat of a price increase, your average cost per bitcoin would be around 800$
I fit the buying all the way down scenario fairly well. I began buying at about $1,200 b/c I got my first 1.24 BTC through Localbitcoins.com in the end of November 2013.
Mostly, ever since, I have been buying on the way down - even though i missed a few buying opportunities here and there to buy more when the price was lower and to refrain from buying when the price was higher.
Today my average buy-in price (including fees) is a little less than $605. I am on the edge of buying a little bit more - yet I am thinking we may get down to $420, the way this seems to be going.... not sure when to pull the trigger on the next buy, exactly.
If I panic sold today, I would be about 28% down (including fees).
not a good idea...
You are saying it is not a good idea to buy while it goes down or to sell now?
Yes. Technical analysis, sentiment analysis and, to a certain extent, fundamental analysis all work with Bitcoin. Here is a good one, with
real fundamentals:
https://medium.com/p/ba5f3fcce103 Thanks for the article.
Even though it is supposed to be a "bearish" article, I think that it is too optimistic already when it implicitly identifies "crypto-currency" with "bitcoin". Consider this hypothetical statement that one might have made 20 years ago:
The World Wide Web is here to stay. As more people choose to use it to publish text and data, more people will have to use it in order to get the information they need. Surely, there will be a time in the not-so-distant future when perhaps 500 million people will use the Web regularly, and perhaps 10% of them will find it essential for their business or work. Therefore, we can conservatively predict that a Netscape browser license will sell for 10'000 dollars or more by then.
Of course an asset going up can disappear and we see new bubbles all the time and they always end up popping
87.
Post 6457286 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
The market didn't react to that news. Maybe people are getting more resilient towards the same old sh** over and over again?
Edit: Who am I kidding here. Probably they'll start dumping at the slightest new ban rumours XD
We are at 450$...
So in other words China is effectively going to ban Bitcoin, I mean finally getting it over with.
Fuck yeah! We're just waiting for Bank of China. Operators want a last pump before going short and releasing the statement.
They are probably not going to ban Bitcoin and we will all forget this real fast and concentrate on thinking how high we can go
88.
Post 6462110 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Isn't it ironic that the libertarian bitcoiners, champions of laissez-faire capitalism, are betting all their life savings on the hope that the Satoshi Bitcoin will be one day the only cryptocurrency in the market, so that they can charge monopoly prices for it?
That's only ironic if you believe in Libertarianism yourself.
They accumulate the currency because they believe it in and they think that it will take away some of the state power against the people
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=580221.0;topicseen
89.
Post 6477098 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
6500 pages, bullishit?
^^That's more like it
+1
There are a dozen of traders that read them all and a lot of robots
90.
Post 6480293 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
I trust evolution.
I trust evolution to do what is in evolution's interest. Incentives, after all. Just need to figure out how to incentivize evolution to behave nicely.
Evolution has an impact on hundreds of thousands of years, tens of thousands at least
nubs are studying
BUY BUY BUY!
Probably because of that misleading documentary about bitcoin and how everyone supposedly made a fortune on trading bitcoin.
Do you have a link to the documentary or the title?
Most people who bought before November 2013 made money but a lot of them made less money trading than if they bought and hold
91.
Post 6482497 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
pretty sure this is it, in the next few hours 450 resistance will become support
Is your strategy to keep saying it all the way down until the inevitable time when you are correct?
never fails
It is pretty annoying but I prefer this kind of prediction than I think the price is going to stay between 440 and 460 for a few months : how unlikely is that!
My predictions are usually that it will go up tremendously
92.
Post 6488278 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
Has this 40K btc purchased news actually been confirmed by anyone as legitimate? I saw it linked on some Chinese site. Perhaps it's a Chinese pump before their next dump.
This purchase could technically happen 300 times. But who is to say it will happen even one more time? It takes more than just some occasional institutional investor to cause a reversal - there needs to be a trend of new people getting interested and actually wanting to use the technology, or a new market.
The daily chart is trumped by the weekly ema downcross. All the little patterns and indicators you are looking at will just get erased with a random giant red candle out of nowhere.
yeah it was confirmed.
how could it happen 300 times? that's wishful thinking. 300 market orders? or shall they put up a 5 million BTC buy wall on bitstamp?
I am using the daily chart. and I wish that you could guarantee that my 'little patterns' will be wiped out, but you cant. what we are seeing now believe is the market preparing for July, when for the first time legit exchanges will be opening in America. we will see all the legit money that's been held back, and perhaps china follow the lead of the USA as expected.
I'm afraid that China will not follow anything at that point, because I believe that real Chinese Exchanges will be a thing of the past at that point. The current Chinese exchanges made it too easy for common chinese people to obtain, use and invest in bitcoin. The Chinese government does not want that. I don't think they will ban bitcoin all together, they just seriously do not want the common people to get involved with bitcoin. They won't ban it per se for several reasons. First it will be seen as a backward move. Second they have industry (miners and hardware/chips manufacturers) that they want to survive and profit from bitcoin. Maybe they also want someone to profit from Bitcoin speculation, just not the common man. I think the writing is on the wall. Their policy is a major setback for bitcoin adoption in China. I am still hoping that Bitcoin will be powerful enough to pull through, but it is not looking good at the moment in my opinion.
Another month or two of this various bull - sheit... and many of us will be completely disheartened. Then, BTC will be ready for its price rally.
I agree. The exchanges are to easy to control with regulation. I hope the Chinese traders will take their BTC out of the exchanges and start trading them in other ways.
The volume won't be the same if the chinese traders can't trade on exchanges but they could trade in offshore exchanges; the price will rise when the situation has settle and we have some visibility
I see some very pessimistic traders that short bitcoins, but if they are right they will lose all their money when the bitcoin exchanges disappear!
According to my last TA we will see bitcoin going down or going up.
93.
Post 6494271 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
One of the biggest questions is whether you tried to resist the crime, so the fact that you "couldn't resist" necessarily makes it not entrapment.
Yeah, I tried to resist, I was mentally torn for hours before actually buying, I just couldn't resist; prove to me that I wasn't. /sarcasm
You could always ask everyone if they are the FBI before buying coins from them, that should keep you in the clear
Incorrect. The police can flat-out lie to you and still have it not be considered entrapment. It's when they harass you over and over until you eventually cave that is considered entrapment, or when they threaten you in some way to the point where it would be a reasonable assumption that you committed the crime out of fear.
In the US, in other countries it will be easier to prove entrapment
To all the bears : Bitcoin is only valued 5billions atm; it is ridiculously cheap
94.
Post 6522100 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
Random thought, how would a war in Europe affect Bitcoin ? 2014 seems to be a really really bad year so far !
That is the Quadrillion Dollar question. There are many arguments for and against, and this is just a lazy hash of my thought on the matter.
It can be argued FOR, that Bitcoin effectively acts as an inflation hedge and so a war in Europe would be solid fuel boosters to take us out of the atmosphere. The counter-argument is that gold and silver are going down even with QE4ever in full throttle and that the same causes can depress Bitcoin similarly.
It can also be argued AGAINST, that Bitcoin is still mostly considered a very high risk speculative asset (one vote per fiat unit invested) and so, if the whole worldwide Ponzi collapses then it will be one of the first to see investors selling to cover other failing investments, with the usual speculator/momentum component for some spectacular Bitcoin-style oomph. This is supported by the observation that metals fell when the crash in 2008 really hit the markets. The counter-argument is that Bitcoin is not really metal but a new asset class because... well, google "internet"..., and as such, when money rushes to the exits, more money rushes into Bitcoin than rushes out, with some hysteresis of course.
If you asked me, without pretending to really understand the forces at play, I believe we will go down, then (possibly all the way) up, so it is viable to keep buying on the way down as long as you are not leveraged and you can afford to lose all in a black swan Bitcoin failure. I also believe that in the Bitcoin economy, most bears are bulls incognito.
But completely hijacking the conversation, I posted earlier a link to another thread about Sunlot and you-cannot-make-this-shit-up shenanigans. I got a few rightfully concerned replies, but no real discussion. Does nobody care? I think it's a serious indirect risk to the Bitcoin economy...
There is a lot of market manipulation from the FED and the banks : the FED keeps the interest low and will keep it low even if the unemployment rate go down unlike what they previously said, they started tapering and the market believes they will keep tapering but they are wrong because the stock market will collapse if they do
95.
Post 6523212 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
And China for the 20th time killed an uptrend. But hey, let's just keep following a dying exchange. The sheep can't wait to completely totally go full retard when Huobi gets closed down one of these days.
They will kill it 28 or even 38 times (numbers signify prosperity) until they will finally run out of luck.
Every day I see those volumes on huobi I wonder how the hell is anyone believing the trade volume is not manipulated.
It's a dying exchange with limited amounts of depositing and the volume is still the in the same % comparing to the others.
But unfortunately, I believe we will see people (sheep for you
) watching huobi even after the next chinese year.
I agree, these crazy volume spikes can't be real anymore. It's pure manipulation.
Manipulation or big players playing the market and adapting
I see current market very VERY bearish....
I can see
BTC going down up to about 350 USD/
BTC by the end of this month
Proof:
Is this correct? I do not know to make predictions, but this one seems to be right
What do you think?
I think the correction has been sufficient, there is a huge potential for profit at today's price; if it goes down more, the potential will just be that much higher
96.
Post 6538558 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
this is the first time ever I see a 1,5k Wall on Huobi.
beginning to scare me.
there, I took my walls down just for you
thank you, what a relief.
*buy buy buy
YES!!!! I have been wondering how low this bear trap is going to go b/c I would prefer to buy a lil MOAR at the lowest point in this series. I was thinking that if it gets down to $420-ish in the next 24 hours... that is about as low as we can expect... absent some kind of negative news.... which negative news (or FUD) is always possible to help to drive some additional downward price pressure(s).
In sum, I am thinking maybe to buy a little bit at $420-ish... if we get there. I welcome to hear any other theories about the extent of downard price movement, here.
If you think it is a bear trap and we will go up a lot soon you should buy now!
We have been in a downtrend for a while with a few bull traps
97.
Post 6539823 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.
The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.
For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?
I suspect, though I don't know for sure (no doubt others will comment on this):
Lots of new people (aka the "Fresh Fiat" we keep hearing about)
are going into bitcoin. We know that the number of new accounts on Coinbase, Blockchain etc is rising significantly, and that must be bringing some new money in.
The problem is that speculative money is leaving bitcoin at the same time. Bitcoin was vastly overpriced and has corrected/is correcting (depending on how bearish you are).
Although it's a gross simplification, I wonder whether the newcomers are more 'normal' buyers, Joe Publics who have heard about Bitcoin and decided to buy a small amount, try it out etc, before perhaps investing more in the future. Whereas the speculative money is at least an order of magnitude greater per person, because these people were trying to make a lot of money at it.
It may be that a proportion of current newcomers become larger investors later on. I'd be interested to know how many day traders here started small before going in heavy enough to make/lost decent money, and how long that took.
TL;DR - growth in user base and fiat is already there, it's just slower and steadier than the speculators running for the door.
-> Relax. Once the speculators have bailed properly ("capitulation") we'll see the underlying growth that was there all along.
Discuss.
The new cohort will be motivate by owning an asset that can't be manipulated by their central government for political purposes and to own an asset that can be easily and cheaply traded around the word
98.
Post 6559422 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
Why is everyone all butthurt in this thread yet again? All this bickering is such a downer. It's a beautiful day, Bitcoins are great!
People are willing to give you over $400 for just one!!
Ripple got a bank, doge got a car, crypto-currency is becoming more and more a normal daily thing.
Brighter days are ahead my friends, just be mindful of the bumps.
Adoption takes time, most people that know about Bitcoin probably learn about it in the last 8months
I went into hibernate mode with my bitcoins. I don't even bother look at the price that much. Once every few weeks I reckon. I will consider getting excited once the price is over 1000 again or it goes to 0 and I can finally remove the client from my PC.
See you in a month or two. I am just mining litecoins right now. Not bother selling/trading them either.
A lot of people think like you; people that stress out every time there is a 10% drop will end up selling too early
99.
Post 6579835 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
429$, will it go up or down?
To clarify, your models suggest that:
1) BTC will bottom out in the period you have suggested (shortly after the China deadline, as it happens)
2) The US stock market is due for a downturn later this year (pointing to an economic downturn a few months later?)
3) Therefore Bitcoin 'outperforming' in this context could mean no growth at all, while the stock markets dip
What are your models' track records?
Correct. The broad market model gives me roughly an 12% edge on directional r2k futures positions over 1 month. The BTC model is not mature enough to measure accurately. The more parameters in your model, the more data you need to avoid overfit. BTC doesn't have enough history to provide useful quality metrics on a scale more than a few hours, for models of this complexity. I've tried to use some tricks to avoid overfit, but I can't yet quantify my success or failure in that regard, for the current model, with a usable p value.
Thanks. So another way of putting this might be:
"Not sure about bitcoin. By the way, recession in 12 months."
A recession is much overdue
100.
Post 6598805 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
now i am
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=162724.0447$ on bitstamp, a small increase in price before a new dump??
101.
Post 6600953 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
I wonder if a side effect of China's exchanges being hamstrung (at best) is that Chinese miners will stop mining because there's no easy way to sell their coins. That would lead to a drop in difficulty, benefiting miners elsewhere - though potentially placing further downward pressure on prices on the remaining exchanges.
I would think that the commercial Chinese miners can easily sell their coins in the Western exchanges or to Western clients, using Western bank accounts, all legally. The closure of Chinese exchanges may be a problem for small independent miners, perhaps.
Chinese miners hold like crazy
If anyone is interested: I saved about 1 hour of Huobi's transaction log from earlier today (2014-07-07) centered on 02:54 UTC. That's in the middle of the small hump that preceded today's mini-rally.
http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-07-0254-HUBI.txtThe file has 879 transactions. It was built by repeated copy-pasting from Bitcoinwisdom's chart (which shows only the last 200 transactions) reformatted and cleaned by a couple of gawk scripts. Beware of possible gaps or errors.
Unix users may be interested in the scripts too:
http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/cleanup_bitcoinwisdom_trans_log.gawkBasic reformat/cleanup script. Click on the chart, then CTRL-A CTRL-C, then paste into a file,
then pipe the file through, for example,
gawk -f cleanup_bitcoinwisdom_trans_log.gawk -v curr=CNY -v ex=Huobi -v dt=2014-05-07
http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/remove_dup_trans.gawkA script to merge several files obtained as above, with overlapping time intervals.
Save each CTRL-A CTRL-C to a separate file, run the cleanup fillter above on each file,
then concatenate the files in chronological order (most recent last), and
pipe the concatenation through
gawk -f remove_dup_trans.gawk
I just lost some time looking at that, explain it to me
102.
Post 6609611 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
The bulls are behind the train trying to push-start it again.
Yeah, this doesn't make sense to me. The "bulls" should already own bitcoin. And its hard to get money into the exchanges, so the "bulls" aren't buying new coins.
That's why I think this is short covering. I think shorts were taking profits as quickly as they could.
Unlike the rally last week, there is no selling pressure, no dumping. Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.
The bulls are still buying and they are bringing new players in the market that buy as well
There are 3800 new BTC / day though
103.
Post 6609917 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
The bulls are behind the train trying to push-start it again.
Yeah, this doesn't make sense to me. The "bulls" should already own bitcoin. And its hard to get money into the exchanges, so the "bulls" aren't buying new coins.
That's why I think this is short covering. I think shorts were taking profits as quickly as they could.
Unlike the rally last week, there is no selling pressure, no dumping. Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.
The bulls are still buying and they are bringing new players in the market that buy as well
There are 3800 new BTC / day though
The point is that they're trying to kick-start the train and that's not how you start a train.
Most bulls are very emotionally involved with Bitcoin
104.
Post 6610074 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
The bulls are behind the train trying to push-start it again.
Yeah, this doesn't make sense to me. The "bulls" should already own bitcoin. And its hard to get money into the exchanges, so the "bulls" aren't buying new coins.
That's why I think this is short covering. I think shorts were taking profits as quickly as they could.
Unlike the rally last week, there is no selling pressure, no dumping. Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.
The bulls are still buying and they are bringing new players in the market that buy as well
There are 3800 new BTC / day though
and daily exchange volume Stamp, Finex and BTCE is still over 25,000 a day. Supply is still being absorbed.
And the numbers above ignore any off-exchange trades, such as between secondmarket and the large mining pools.
25,000 is the volume but there is a lot of pure trading and it can be manipulated
Hopefully all the BTC mined are not sold
105.
Post 6615175 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
The bulls are behind the train trying to push-start it again.
Yeah, this doesn't make sense to me. The "bulls" should already own bitcoin. And its hard to get money into the exchanges, so the "bulls" aren't buying new coins.
That's why I think this is short covering. I think shorts were taking profits as quickly as they could.
Unlike the rally last week, there is no selling pressure, no dumping. Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.
About 1000BTC of shorts have covered on Finex as well but I think a lot more of them could be covered if this continues.
It is not hard to get money to bitstamp or buy with localbitcoins for exemple
106.
Post 6620905 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
I am very puzzled that there is a company willing to take over Mt. Gox. Mt Gox's assets are MINUS 650,000 BTC and perhaps MINUS 20-50 millions $. Their only other asset is their "reputation".
Can anybody sane be willing to pay 650,000 BTC for Karpeles exchange's reputation of being scammers and possibly thiefs? Or their buggy, obsolete software without even production version?
They do not intend to assume that 650'000 BTC debt. Check those threads.
No they are not
And btw I hope the btc found will be given back in their btc form, not exchanged for fiat
107.
Post 6630211 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
The news - on coin desk and such - make it sound as if there is an international coalition of Mt. Gox. victims who thinks this taking over is best for them.
And as usual Coindesk is totally uncritical.
But perhaps a couple of biggest holders want to divide these 200,000 BTC among them, at the cost of smaller holders like you ...
Right. According to some rumors, one of the largest accounts in the leaked MtGOX database was Mark's. Will he get his share of the 200'000 too? (in a liquidation, the owners have the lowest priority.) According to those rumors, other large accounts belonged to close friends of Mark.
By the way, no one knows who leaked that database and whether it is true. It may have been doctored with the intent of stealing a large part of the remaining coins.
Suppose for example that the sum of all BTC account balances was actually 400'000, and the database was altered by adding another 400'000 to the accounts of certain clients, bringing the total to 800'000 BTC. If the remaining 200 000 BTC were distributed according to the true database, each ordinary client would get 50% of his balance. With the faked database, he will get only 25% of his balance, while those special clients would get to split 100'000 BTC that were never theirs.
The only hope to get the truth is through a police investigation. If Sunlot takes over, no one will ever know what really happened inside MtGOX, and no one will know whether the payments (if any) were fair.
(I actually don't care about whether the clients will lose those 200'000 BTC too to "MtGOX 2.0", but like any sane person I get very upset when I learn that scammers and thieves got away, free and rich.)
OK, O probably did not phrase it well - but US court (based in Chicago, iirc) - agreed preliminarily to this proposal and lawyers representing some US customers joined with some lawyers representing "internationals" to try to convince Japanese courts.
Yeah, friends of Mark's hypothesis make sense - all simply well connected and very wealthy bitcoiners. ASAIK the list is (mostly) legit, when it was published many people on reddit confirmed their holdings. But you are right that few accounts could have inflated amount of holding. And taking into account lack of any proper accounting at Gox - and them publicly admitting to processing transactions manually because it is faster
- it is probably possible to fake such holdings. Although true computer experts - who would look at the date of making records, deleted data on drives etc should be able to figure out the truth. If they seized Gox computers in time, that is - before the crucial hard drives went physically missing...
[/quote]
I think there are ways to confirm that the accounts were not add up : history of trades and deposits
108.
Post 6634041 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
How can you lose your savings if it didnt go to 0 ? The very worst you could do is lose 60%
That wasn't meant literally, of course. Losing 60% of all you own is bad enough, don't you think?
But you CAN lose all of your life savings if you left the bitcoins in MtGOX, invested in Neo & Bee, or any of the other zillion bitcoin scams. (The first time I heard of bitcoin was when Rick Falkvinge tweeted that he was investing all his savings in bitcoin. Guess where he left them. Fortunately for him he managed to get part of them out in time.)
You can also invest your 50'000$ of savings plus 50'000$ borrowed from relatives, friends and banks. (You can bet that many people did that. If the salesman says that for sure BTC will be worth 1'000'000$ in a few years...)
This idea that the government needs to protect you from your own investment decisions is comical.
It is funny, but one of the things that people expect the government to do is to protect them from scammers who try to sell unsound financial instruments with misleading promises. That is why there are things like the SEC and consumer protection laws. And that seems to be the reason why many bitcoin businesses catering primarily to US citizens are based in Panama or other unlikely countries.
Who's the sales person? Why is there this idea with you that people have been mislead and sold something by someone in particular ? In the fiat world scams are bought into all the time do we really need to start metioned Maddof et al ? Thats what you call being robbed of your life savings not investing in a brand new BETA technology and then moaning that its lost value because you listened to some guy on the internet instead of making your own decision. These fiat financial scams and frauds genuinely rob people of their lifes work and do genuinely sing promises of high returns.
The thing that annoys me most with your conjecture is that you speak as though everyone whos in BTC right now bought $1200 coins. Thats just not the case the majority of people are well above their initial investment and the rest of them are likely down no where near 60%.
A fool and his money are soon parted and if somebody invests in a volatile asset that they can see with their own eyes has been so volatile and then moan that it goes down instead of up they are a fool.
If someone borrows $50,000 off freinds and family to invest in a ridculously volatile asset then they are a fool.
If someone left their Bitcoins with a third party service then they are a fool.
If someone invests more than they are willing to lose they are a fool.
Dont you see where this is going ?
I take it you advocate boiler room pump and dumps then that leave people with low single digit %'s of what they were conned into investing for promises of high returns.
I have not heard any people having a lot of bitcoins not saying there is a huge risk involved
The SEC protects nobody, they fine the banks so it means they fine the clients
109.
Post 6652480 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Looks like huobi wants to go down already
Will the bulls show up to save the day?
They show up but they don't save the day, they just get cheap coins
110.
Post 6660406 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
RAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
To $465? Lol
He may be trying to influence the bots that read the thread
The price is down
Bulls, believers, traders that think it will go up push the price up
I'm guessing with the Sunlot plan, the clients have a small chance to get back their entire account. At least in a long time.
That is just spin. They propose to give back (say) 10% of the assets and force clients to invest the other 10% into MtGOX2.0, and will count their share of whatever profit that MtGOX2.0 may make as the payment of the other 90%. Why is that better than giving clients the full 20%, so that they can invest those same 10% into Apple stock instead? The clients will surely recover their 90% back much faster this way.
Instead of getting 20% back they might get 10% back and they would get the equivalent of 15% worth of shares of the new company : the reasoning is that there is some added value with mtgox 2.0 and that the traders will have an incentive to do business with the new entity so the new entity will have some profits that will pay back the old clients
But you are right that most clients would chose to get 20% and do whatever they want with it instead of getting 10% back and shares of a company but some judges like to control and they attempt to take the decisions for someone else
111.
Post 6666204 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Bumpin up against that $460,-.
Once we break it, we can post train and moon pics.
I can feel all the fiat on the exchanges waiting to buy, it may arrive when we don't except it anymore
112.
Post 6667609 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Bumpin up against that $460,-.
Once we break it, we can post train and moon pics.
I can feel all the fiat on the exchanges waiting to buy, it may arrive when we don't except it anymore
Bitstamp is like... 'lol what should we do about all this fiat? I guess post some vague tweets about bitcoin going to the moon'
Yes, I'm not on Bitstamp but on Kraken, but I can see my few fiat waiting on the ground !
The sentiment is very bad on Bitcoin but the same people that tell you they think it is going down are keeping ton of cash on the exchanges; that makes me very bullish
113.
Post 6803201 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
In the past, price has always went UP after any stable period.
I'm not sure how much longer the price will pretend to be stable, it may be weeks or months.
If the price drops from here and doesn't come back up, it would be a first in bitcoin history.
In 2013, the price may have went up after stagnation but that was because it was getting a lot of media attention and average Joes were buying in, this year, after many average Joes were robbed by exchange owners (not only MtGox) - 2 exchanges in my country stole the coins and money, this year my boy, its going to drop after stagnation.....is has been doing so since the beginning of 2014.
It has been going down for months but the price stability is probably a positive sign in this environnement
The demise of the USD and the probable fall of the Euro, Pound and Yen as well will make Bitcoin look very appealing
114.
Post 6935620 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
115.
Post 6972156 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
Jorge, this is another example of you discarding information that doesn't meet your starting criterion of bitcoin = scam.
Confirmation bias doesn't do you any favours.
I have no reason to believe that Bitstamp is insolvent, but, if it were, it could and would easily fake that test. That the test is accepted without criticisms only confirms how gullible bitcoiners are.
Bitcoin is not itself a scam, but I have never in my life seen an economic sector so chock full of scammers. Every crook in the world who learns a little about bitcoin would want to "adopt" it. It is a much more lucrative and "safe" vehicle for scams than the classical ones -- stolen credit cards, counterfeit cash, phony viagra, nigerian heirlooms, penny stocks, ponzi funds, ...
I remember people saying something similar when something called 'the Internet' started to gain momentary popularity in the late 90s. Thank goodness that didn't work out.
Bitcoin is a protocol. The rest will get worked out along the way, just as it was/is with the Internet.
If you bought the internet companies of the 90's you probably didn't make any money
Bitcoin is a great protocole, very useful and very strong, it will appear to most when the USD Euro Yen and Pound will collapse dramatically
116.
Post 7036419 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.48h):
Wow 610$ on Bitstamp this is going up nicely, reaching new 30day and 60day highs
700$ doesn't seem far away
117.
Post 7060127 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.48h):
If he has more coins ready and is smart he should stop putting up walls for a little while and slowly put them back again on the way up.
If he keeps adding these walls it might actually stop us from going up for a while and he will be forced to market sell or put a new wall up way lower.
maybe thats the plan...
he'll buy back when it goes down, and do it all over again
market maker!
bitcoin may be in this range for weeks....
or not!
so exciting
It may keep going up, play the trend, let's move the discussion past 1000$ and a lot of positive consequences will arrive
Reading the first few pages of this thread really give some perspective on the price
118.
Post 7090301 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.49h):
Weee! I made the price go up $3
bitstamp has an incredible volume :O
Yeah, it went up like 10k from yesterday.
Also, you guys who were afraid of Bitstamp, they're loaded!
Dear Bitstamp clients,
To reassure clients, Bitstamp regularly performs a procedure to prove its BTC reserves.
On May 24th, 2014, Mike Hearn of Vinumeris GmbH, bitcoin core developer and prominent member of bitcoin community observed Bitstamps proof of reserves procedure. Reserves were proven by conducting a Bitcoin send-to-self transfer.
Details of the procedure are provided in the PDF linked here:
https://www.bitstamp.net/s/documents/Bitstamp_proof_of_reserves_statement.pdfIn summary, Bitstamp held 183,497 BTC its cold wallet fully covering both the clients funds held at Bitstamp and the clients funds on the Ripple network.
Additionally, a financial statement audit is in progress.
Best regards,
Bitstamp team
It would be more reassuring to get the cold wallet addresses
119.
Post 7096629 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.50h):
bitstamp down?
Not for me
665$ atm and climbing; we may get very good news within a few months
120.
Post 7112771 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.50h):
5 month high today(700)
feels good yessir!
People get excited, people don't want to miss the boat so most the money waiting on the side is getting in
We need to cross 1000$/coin to get a lot of positive news and go higher from there
121.
Post 7166158 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
Such boringness,
many bored
such bored
What won't be boring? 20% swings everyday? Reaching 1000$ then 1500$? I can see those milestones reached in 2014
122.
Post 7170977 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
The big players are waking up and making moves
A Bitcoin millionaire has been playing huge on JD and lost 500BTC an hour ago
123.
Post 7184473 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
IMO we are at a point where we have a lot of high net worth, major corps, and invesent funds investing in Bitcoin. The days of huge swings, massive outbreaks, and downward spirals are over. I think we will see peaks and valleys in the range of 2-3% possibly at a faster pace than traditional stocks rise and fall but like I said to many major players now have too much to lose not to control the price. Not only that but if more retailers are to enter the "accepting" bitcoin game then the price has to show signs of long term stability and I think that's what we are seeing here. Long term investment growth, price stability for retailers to enter bitcoin, wider acceptance by the general public who don't have the knowledge or skills to enter a highly volatile market.
That's just my guess, he'll we could be at $1,000 on Monday. Who the hell knows.
When major corps and investment funds will massively invest in Bitcoin, the price will be well into 4digits or possibly 5digits
124.
Post 7186728 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
here we go
bitstamp starts rising...
No ? 653..
656$ atm
I feel there is way more chance of having +50$ in a month than -50$, let's bid up
125.
Post 7194797 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
My prediction:
sideways until 20th June (+/- 2 days)
And then up or down
then up
then a minor correction
then moon
exact numbers later in the summer
I feel a huge increase up in value in overdue and good news are going to rain on the community
Prepare to have the following problems : tax of gains, sell some of your bitcoins to buy a house by the beach, secure your bitcoins ect.
126.
Post 7201080 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
I bought a lot of PPC. Everyone who feels hatred towards me, should dump all their PPC to hurt me.
Since you seem to be a troll, how could we rely upon anything that you say? For example, you may be providing misinformation.
I had my say. Now it's your turn to do whatever you think is best.
Lol, ignore it is. And I already sold my PPC for BTC when PPC peaked.
At various points over the last 7 month, i have made various fairly small purchases of alt coins through BTC-e. In total, I bought about 2.5 BTC worth of the 7 alt coins that are listed on BTC e. I have just waited, and hoped that they would go up, and each one of them has performed much worse than BTC. Currently, if I were to cash all of them out, I would probably get a little less than 1 BTC.
After witnessing this depreciation, I was thinking that I would wait for the next boom in BTC prices and then see if the various alts will appreciate along with BTC or appreciate at a higher rate than BTC, at a certain point. Then I would cash out as a whole at the time that the Alts appreciate higher than BTC.
Given the proliferation of a large number of other alts, I am beginning to have my doubts that the ones listed on BTC e are going to go through any kind of considerable appreciation phase. Accordingly, fairly frequently, in recent days, I have been thinking that maybe, just maybe it would be better to just cut my losses on these various alts. On the other hand, I could just HODL all of them, in the rare event that one of them may take off and become the silver to BTC's gold,,,,,, HM? what a dilemma!!!
I think a lot of members had similar experiences; sometimes it feels like alt-coins price either fall or go x20
this "stabilisation" period could be good but it could also mean weak hands maybe sell their stacks caused by fear of low volume
Boredom before we move up again is no bad thing. Once the price moves back up towards 800 we are off to the races. The price was ludicrously oversold with the bear fud rubbish permeating everywhere. Not surprising after doubling that bitcoin will wait and draw breath before launching
800 feels very near
127.
Post 7212674 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
Bah... I missed the opportunity to sell again. Could have bought 20 more BTC.
What do you mean? Price is still near the 3month ATH
128.
Post 7216821 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
I hope you are right
that would be great
Too many people here are not patient enough to get rich. Just wait and hodl.
Bitcoin = The Ultimate Get Rich Quick Scheme.
Not that quick and it hard to hodl. Think about it, the people who bought coins for very cheap have some major balls to hold for this long. Many people sold when it went to 100 or even when they made a thousand bucks. When at any point it can go to 0. If you hold in this crazy market, you DESERVE the reward.
I don't have balls but I hodl.
Of course the price of "very cheap" coins is debatable. $650 might be "very cheap" a year from now!
And 650 was very cheap last November.
Some members thinks the price should go back to 200$ so they think 650$ is way overvalued but I think it is still extremely cheap because it's only an 8Billions market cap in an overvalued American Dollar
129.
Post 7219106 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
Going to the 700s this week. We have to
There's just been so much good news.
Going way higher in the next few months and probably a bit higher this week; I voted 670$
130.
Post 7220835 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
btw. I see Bitfinex leading with the price now.
Only if it is relative to Bitstamp and/or BTC-e?
In the 1m chart, the last pump was
Bitfinex: first hint 19:09, for real 19:10
Huobi and OKCoin: first hint 19:07, for real 19:08
It is going down at the moment but there will be a few big buyers before the week ends, will the traders decide to follow and buy or to wait and see
131.
Post 7227401 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
I am not sure it gives us much information, what do you think?
132.
Post 7229388 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
No block for 30 minutes.
30min is commun! Check it
133.
Post 7237575 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
Someone is desperated about price going over $650 at Bitstamp now for a few days (and have a lot of coins).
We cant do much, just sit here and wait for jump or right time.
Let's just hope it happens soon
Me want actionz!
I have a small sell pending. The swings are quite small but I am bored and want to make something.
good luck with that... maybe I take back my previous comment and we are NOT thinking in the same terms.... but anyhow, you may be able to profit and trade in this current market. I personally believe thatit is NOT worth the effort.. and better to play long.. and maybe trade later...
However, if you acquired your BTC at below $266, then maybe it does NOT matter too much to skim off a few profits here and there.. at this price or at $800... either way, it is profits.
Most traders would be better off holding, among those some get lucky and make a profit / holding
134.
Post 7250058 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Mmh, there it is again... that feeling of controlled apprehension.
Enjoyable, even.
As long as we don't go below ~580.
It is going down again, any idea why?
Can't wait to go up up up
135.
Post 7252644 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
I don't know how and where they buy bitcoins, but i would like to know.
Where do you live?
Most large cities in most developed countries at least have Bitcoin ATMs and many have thriving Bitcoin communities where you can buy bitcoins directly from enthusiasts at Bitcoin centers or meet-ups.
localbitcoins and exchanges allow to buy BTC as well!
136.
Post 7259850 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
What a crazy spread, lol
20 USD spread its really big.
It is huge
0.002 on btc-e at the moment
620$, I am betting that we won't go too low and we will rebound nicely real fast
137.
Post 7274702 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Shock.
Gasp.
Re-test after rally!
$600 in sight
Agreed. $600 within reach (<12h).
Then: rally time to 650, maybe higher, touching 700?
Then then: falling back below 640, and eventually re-testing 530.
So say we all? So say we all!
I wont lie, I've been remembering this prophecy every now since you said it and if it completes will be one of the best I've seen in a while. Well better than yeah at some point we're going down a bit
Hehe, wouldn't call it prophecy. Common sense, plus fib levels and BB
Plus, I'm not committed to touching $530. That'd just be the 2nd worst case I can see happening.
We are heading lower at the moment but it may be a bear trap
740$ next?
138.
Post 7277261 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
all time recent low! 
Was it a bull trap, is it a bear trap, are you going to go to 550$??
I would be very surprised to see the price go much lower without any bad news
139.
Post 7281883 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Now that we are in reverse it is only a matter of time before someone arbs by buying up all the cheap coins on stamp and dump on the higher exchanges. Equilibrium looks above 600 as of now.
You would think someone would do that but the market is going down so it is risky
585$ on Bistamp and it went down as low as 569$
140.
Post 7298509 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Why the HELL someone with Petahash needs pool at all? They should have been mining solo since start.
They removed 1.5 petahash but they have more; they get a way lower variance but you would think they should mine alone if they don't have having a few bad weeks which they shouldn't
141.
Post 7299268 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
its worth noting that well over 30K coins have been dumped on the market in the past 24hour.
not sure why people think the FBI's coins are so scary
... because it is the
US Government who is selling them.
The official FBI address still has all the BTC
https://blockchain.info/address/1FfmbHfnpaZjKFvyi1okTjJJusN455paPH
142.
Post 7304416 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Nobody sold part of his btc stash rebought @ sub 400$?
Buy and Hold is ok, but why don't you take profits on the way to a new ath?
BTC is a bumpy road, there was allways a chance to buy back (with a decent profit.
Selling now is not a good advice, but why didn't you sell above 650$?
If you sold between Jan and October 2013 you didn't get a chance to buy back cheaper, it is just an example
143.
Post 7320737 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Why is still going down?
Because people are extremely scared. As soon as the price goes up someone will dump on it, Chinese FUD will be posted, a pool reaches 51% etc. There are people working non stop on trying to take the value of Bitcoin down and right now they control the market. Any hint of bad news atm and the sheep completely panic. A lot of the selling currently is because of "i better sell now before someone else sells". As always the idiots create their own problem. Of course this will change again but when...nobody knows.
There are people saying about price under 300 in few days, im afraid but im not going to sell. Im like the captain of a ship, if it goes down i will go down with it.
It may go down some more and 300 is not totally impossible but it is really unlikely because it's 55% less than the current price and there has been a lot of positive news, adoption is growing and the economic bad news for the states and Europe are around the corner and some insiders know it
144.
Post 7321517 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
the ghash.io thing is scary, I can understand the paniccy pussies selling to an extent. But I have trust in the community to fix it. P2pool seems a good way. Once it offers low enough variance, people will flock to it. Kudos to the miners already switching. They are real men!
Seems like it is being fixed. I saw that ghash.io is down to 42%. Apparently someone is working on it.
The 51% attack is probably not a problem and the Silk Road bitcoins returning on the market don't change the potential of the protocole and the upcoming appreciation in price that will come as the USD tanks and the western financial system goes into pieces
145.
Post 7322315 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Major major support at $400-420
Are you talking about a buying wall? If we get there the market will be totally different and the buying wall may not be there anymore
There are hopfeully other support before 400-420$
146.
Post 7323284 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Not that anyone here gives a shit about technical analysis except when it confirms their biases, but whatever.
When it is going down you can trace a trend line going down!
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Topic Summary
Posted on: Today at 11:33:27 AM New message Posted by: Blitz
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Bitstamp is higher than Bitfinex. Think on that. Shocked
Posted on: Today at 11:32:58 AM Posted by: TERA
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Guys chill out it's not just going to break through both of these supports in one go right away, right here where they are intersecting. I think if they break then it will break them both separately on separate occasions starting in at least a couple weeks.
Posted on: Today at 11:31:08 AM Posted by: roslinpl
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I think ++ is coming.
Just compare a volume with a price - and you will understand, that we will have ++ to a price very soon Smiley
And even another China Ban will not change it Wink
Posted on: Today at 11:28:58 AM Posted by: Blitz
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It's a really tiresome statement. You do lose if the price goes down and you haven't realized the loss. You have fewer options now. You have no access to your former wealth and your purchasing power has declined. Will it be undone in the future? Maybe. But you are trapped in the present.
Remember, everything is still denominated in FILTHY FIAT.
Posted on: Today at 11:25:37 AM Posted by: Miz4r
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Quote from: samsonn25 on Today at 11:17:41 AM
Quote from: Miz4r on Today at 11:14:42 AM
I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.
You only lose If you sell lower than purchase price
Yes thanks captain obvious. But if we break below 530 we will go back to 450 and maybe lower so I'm not going to keep holding this bag through that. I have other bags I'm still holding though, but they're $100/coin bags so not as heavy. Wink
Posted on: Today at 11:22:44 AM Posted by: Blitz
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Not that anyone here gives a shit about technical analysis except when it confirms their biases, but whatever.
(
https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FwbndAB1.png&t=541&c=EtsscuMNfiv5Zw) (FORUM: disabled on this page for security.)
Posted on: Today at 11:21:04 AM Posted by: Tzupy
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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on Today at 11:03:31 AM
Quote from: sidhujag on Today at 04:50:56 AM
So essentially we can say either China has 10x more interest than the rest of the world or the numbers are cooked up if usd is isolated from yuan or rmb. What I care about is money coming out of fiat and into btc.
I am not sure what you mean, but: from all I have read, I am quite convinced that the November rally was entirely due to demand in the Chinese exchanges. Ditto for the December crash and partial recovery, the decline from February to April, the stagnation in May, and the the mini-rally a couple weeks ago. Not sure yet about the current decline, but it seems to have coinided with a new push to cut out the remaining channels of yuan deposit to the exchanges.
I don't know how many coins are still in the hands of Chinese speculators and investors, but, if the markets there were to close and those coins returned to the Western market (which they probably would, since speculation seems to be the last significant utility of bitcoin in China), I am quite convinced that the price would drop to somewhere between 80$ (an estimate of where it would be if China had never entered the game) and 350$ (which it briefly reached after one of the PBoC scares).
As for Mr. Lee's claims: his exchange BTC-China used to have the largest volume in China until the December crash. Since that time it has become insignificant, while Huobi, OKCoin, and the other Nameless Ones became dominant. (Huobi in particular seems to have bumped its volume just when BTC-China suddenly lost theirs). I watched that video and heard the claims, but did not see the evidence. His being elected to the board of the Shrem Karpelès & Friends Foundation, together with Mr. Pierce, did not help convince me.
A few comments: the November 'rally' was the mania phase of the bubble, it would have happened anyway, but several months later.
The Chinese mania could have lasted a bit longer if the PBoC wouldn't have decided to cut the funding to the exchanges.
But the PBoC doesn't want to create a massive bitcoin crash, because of the potential social unrest associated with such a crash.
So for now the Chinese exchanges are in limbo IMO, they can't truly fund another significant uptrend, but don't want to start capitulation yet.
I already expressed my opinion that the closure of Chinese exchanges could drive the price to 100$ or below.
However, they seem to plan a move outside the jurisdiction of the PBoC, which may be a turbulent market period, because
they can easily transfer bitcoins from servers in mainland China, but customers' yuan could be tough to transfer to a new friendlier home.
Posted on: Today at 11:20:35 AM Posted by: bitgeek
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Quote from: samsonn25 on Today at 11:17:41 AM
Quote from: Miz4r on Today at 11:14:42 AM
I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.
You only lose If you sell lower than purchase price
That's right, just buy and hold,it will eventually get back up. The only losers in bitcoin are those who react to FUD.
Posted on: Today at 11:20:11 AM Posted by: Blitz
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Quote from: Miz4r on Today at 11:14:42 AM
I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.
Short term, there's a descending wedge in process, plus bullish divergences in MACD/RSI in various timeframes, and declining volume. I don't think there is much selling power left even if we take out the former low, but medium term is another story.
Posted on: Today at 11:17:41 AM Posted by: samsonn25
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Quote from: Miz4r on Today at 11:14:42 AM
I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.
You only lose If you sell lower than purchase price
Posted on: Today at 11:14:42 AM Posted by: Miz4r
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I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.
Posted on: Today at 11:14:10 AM Posted by: fonzie
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Quote from: deadley on Today at 11:11:59 AM
Quote from: tarmi on Today at 10:40:58 AM
buhahaha, all the bears already talking about 300~400, and they didnt break not even the 540 support yet. at the weekend day.
Dont you think its normal phenomena, when we going upside we talk about only upside and when we going downside then its same we talk only downside.
The difference between bulls and bears in runups or crashes is that bulls laugh about bears and insult them whereas bears mostly just laugh about Bitcoin.
Posted on: Today at 11:11:59 AM Posted by: deadley
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Quote from: tarmi on Today at 10:40:58 AM
buhahaha, all the bears already talking about 300~400, and they didnt break not even the 540 support yet. at the weekend day.
Dont you think its normal phenomena, when we going upside we talk about only upside and when we going downside then its same we talk only downside.
Posted on: Today at 11:03:31 AM Posted by: JorgeStolfi
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Quote from: sidhujag on Today at 04:50:56 AM
So essentially we can say either China has 10x more interest than the rest of the world or the numbers are cooked up if usd is isolated from yuan or rmb. What I care about is money coming out of fiat and into btc.
I am not sure what you mean, but: from all I have read, I am quite convinced that the November rally was entirely due to demand in the Chinese exchanges. Ditto for the December crash and partial recovery, the decline from February to April, the stagnation in May, and the the mini-rally a couple weeks ago. Not sure yet about the current decline, but it seems to have coinided with a new push to cut out the remaining channels of yuan deposit to the exchanges.
I don't know how many coins are still in the hands of Chinese speculators and investors, but, if the markets there were to close and those coins returned to the Western market (which they probably would, since speculation seems to be the last significant utility of bitcoin in China), I am quite convinced that the price would drop to somewhere between 80$ (an estimate of where it would be if China had never entered the game) and 350$ (which it briefly reached after one of the PBoC scares).
As for Mr. Lee's claims: his exchange BTC-China used to have the largest volume in China until the December crash. Since that time it has become insignificant, while Huobi, OKCoin, and the other Nameless Ones became dominant. (Huobi in particular seems to have bumped its volume just when BTC-China suddenly lost theirs). I watched that video and heard the claims, but did not see the evidence. His being elected to the board of the Shrem Karpelès & Friends Foundation, together with Mr. Pierce, did not help convince me.
Posted on: Today at 11:00:57 AM Posted by: ChartBuddy
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(
https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rtcons.com%2Fwall%2Fbitstamp.16236.10.small.png%3F1%3D2&t=541&c=2DNfYdXFn7Yy7Q) (FORUM: disabled on this page for security.) (
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Posted on: Today at 10:40:58 AM Posted by: tarmi
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buhahaha, all the bears already talking about 300~400, and they didnt break not even the 540 support yet. at the weekend day.
Posted on: Today at 10:40:04 AM Posted by: fonzie
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This has nothing at all to do with the FBI Coins. !
Posted on: Today at 10:37:23 AM Posted by: yrtrnc
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There's alot going for BTC right now. I dont see the news about FBI really affecting the market anymore than this. If anything it should be seen as positive. Since the US government has once again accepted BTC.
Posted on: Today at 10:33:43 AM Posted by: fonzie
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GHashinese Torpedo hits USS Bitcoin. Lot more to come! Admiral Finex already wounded!
Posted on: Today at 10:27:47 AM Posted by: samsonn25
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Yes long term. This Has Been Established and tested many times since last year. Of course short term there are higher support levels.
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It may, we'll see
147.
Post 7339026 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
We crossed 600$? Bull trap or maybe the decrease in price was kind of a bear trap?
148.
Post 7341413 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
It's just normal trading in a thin book area. People are buying and selling and some of the buyers don't really care about a 1% price premium. Not everyone is a daytrader.
What! I thought everyone was jointly day trading and manipulating the price, while banning China and drawing dinosaurs, you mean to tell me there's people who just want to buy some coins on a monday morning
I sense some sarcasm
Everyday a few persons decide to buy a few bitcoins or more for diversification, to make a profit or because they like the protocole, his potential and they want to make a statement and support the whole decentralised idea
149.
Post 7361264 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Hold only if you can take the pain when it goes sub 300or 200$.
It might get back to 600$ , but that could take another year or two. The bubbles before have been artificially created by non-existent MtGox USD.
There is no garantuee at all that we will see another ATH bubble. I have to say that we might get a bubble from 70$ to 500$ , if it should drop that far.
Is that 3 times now we have got back to 600 in a week?
Yes but I am looking for when we will finally cross 700$ again; almost all of us will be looking up again
150.
Post 7366388 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
One way or another, any minute now =>
Doesn't look like a proper triangle to me. And once it's to the end it is very unreliable. Any "breakout" could just be continued sideways at this point.
A breakout could continued sideways but is it more likely?
597$ steady on Bitstamp; if we get to 620$ tonight we may see a lot of shorts buying back
151.
Post 7378611 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
How much do you guys use to trade?
I'd say a professional trader is someone whose main source of income is trading but you're not much of a serious professional trader at less than 70/80BTC of bankroll, what do you guys think?
152.
Post 7380659 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
How much do you guys use to trade?
I'd say a professional trader is someone whose main source of income is trading but you're not much of a serious professional trader at less than 70/80BTC of bankroll, what do you guys think?
During the peak of my trading before I started pulling out due to the volume decline, I was making 500BTC trades.
Nowadays I barely trade at all and don't even want to keep coins/funds on an exchange.
When your trade or have open orders you have money tied down with the exchanges
You can keep the money you have on the exchanges to a minimum but it is a risk anyway
153.
Post 7413650 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
Just speculating here.
If you were a whale with a large holding and were able to manipulate the market and were also looking at getting some of these FBI/SR coins, would it not be in your best interests to try and drive the market price down before the auction so that you could acquire the coins at auction at the lowest possible price ?
You can speculate it would be interesting but risky in a market that is not heading down; I think you would buy back the coins you sold so the price recovers afterwards
There is more chance of the result of the auctions to be a positive news than a negative one anyway but it may be already priced in anyway one way or the other
154.
Post 7416700 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
Guys please stop getting mad at me for posting charts of how a downwards scenario would play out. My charts are mostly geared towards swing traders and daytraders so they would know where good trading points are if certain scenarios play out, where to find support and resistance, and how to watch for a breakout. NONE of my postings just tell people to sell their bitcoins now. In fact, for people who don't want to bother with trading, I recommend a long term holding strategy, as I am very bullish on a 2-5 year perspective and think that $10,000+ could be reached.
People would be foolish to sell just because they saw a chart from someone online that they don't know, this thread is mostly lurked by people day trading or trying to know the sentiment or why the price increased/decreased
155.
Post 7421372 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
It's easy. If you want to buy a million dollars worth of coins, you're probably pretty smart and know what you're doing. And if you know what you're doing, then you don't try to buy them by putting one order in the order book at one price thats been beaten through several times in the last 24 hours.
Sure, but if you have a wall of 1 million, then you must have the money back it up, no?
You have the money to back it up but you have a software that will delete the order because it comes to it
Should I sell BTC before US auction of btc begins or should I hold ?
If you cannot decide on your own what to do or whom to follow, then do nothing. Presumably there is a reason that you bought BTC. If it still exists, hold. If it doesn't or never did, sell.
I bought BTC because concept of decentralization appealed to me. I am not in it for profit as I don't hold much BTC.
its good to participate in the market, helps liquidity and price discovery, every bitcoiner should have a trading account.
Yes, I should try. I have a trading account on kraken. I should try to trade with the money i earn from signature. Nothing to lose.
if you start trading, you can lose the money you earned during the sig campaign and your time; you will learn a thing or 2 though
156.
Post 7578620 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
4h and 1h MACD suggest a moderate dump possible in the next hours.
Possible or likely?
The price is very healthy at 590-600$, it shows there are a lot of new buyers and that those who hold believe in the coin and will hold until 1000$ for some, a few thousands for others and more for some
157.
Post 7595283 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
Don't get left behind! 637!
This is it! 639$, maybe we will dip a little bit one more time but maybe we are heading close to 700$ or higher
We may touch 1000$ this summer and a new ATH way higher before the end of 2014 as most expect
158.
Post 7601814 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
guess its mostly manipulation what we see right now?!
You get the prize. The whale held the price down, the whale removed his fake walls and then the whale bots simply kicked in and auto-bought. Hoping to spark an uptrend. Now the same whales bots are selling back down due to lack of buying pressure (ie., REAL market buyers).
I'm convinced now that for the time being, this market is still in a lull. I'm not seeing any real buyers back in this market yet, just whale bots buying/selling to themselves. The lack of volume and real demand is telling.
Lack of sellers more telling. This market is going up.
I hope you are right, and I'm also in the camp that's not selling. But I won't be convinced that real support is growing along with the buying until I see what happens during the next FUD shit storm (you know it's always right around the corner). If support holds at say $580 or higher, then I'll agree that the market is getting more resistant to panic selling.
We just broke up out of consolidation by $40 in less than an hour. We are going to at least $650. It's a no brainer.
If it was a no brainer for most we will already be @ 650$; the trend is very positive, the sentiment is positive, the news have been positive and the charts indicate it is more likely that we go up than down
159.
Post 7602880 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
Wohooo!!! We are goin up!!!
PREPARE 660 TRAINS PLEASE !!!!
Of course we are going to 660$ but if we go down it is going to hurt many people that will have bought with margin
160.
Post 7607564 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
i still can't get over how many people were thinking the coins would go for below market...
The result of the auction had to be positive because it showed whales were interested in Bitcoin and it was good press as well
Its July? And no $10 coins? How can this be, the prophet was wrong??
Many people have been wrong on Bitcoin and many people are still wrong but we are getting there
161.
Post 7922535 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):
.... I just opened one of my forecasting spreadsheets and noted that I'd arbitrarily picked today as the starting point for the next bull run. No I don't have any proof or logic, just me and my obsession with plotting things in spreadsheets.
Well, too bad you lost.
Just for the record, my date is set on august 19th not sooner.
If it doesn't happen before 29th, I sell all my crypto for gold. /s
That seems extreme, why not keep some BTC and some Gold?
162.
Post 8000916 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
Why the fuck are we going down??
1w MACD beginning to look nasty though
I'm checking out if we go into a bearmarket
Lots of coins find their way to the market, maybe american bitcoiners want to go to holiday this year and they need to unload their bitcoins
163.
Post 8126903 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
Dumping in July is the equivalent of:
Haaa LOOOL! That's what I always wanted to do. Pull the window down in my Limo and then throw some bills at the people in front of my favourite club!
funny, I always wanted it to rain money.
we should get together
Maybe you should come to my Club sometime! You seem like a nice guy having this great Wall Observer Thread here
We can also invite some people from the thread. But only Bulls!
I may qualify for such an invitation....
Speaking on invitations, I am still working on my Circle invitation... I contacted them, and they said don't call us, we'll call you.... Additionally, they said that they are still only sending out limited invitations... so have patience...
Circle is working very hard to make sure its not hand out 10$ to poeple holding much profits.
i wanted to sign up so i could send beers around without paying the 5cent TX free, sadly i too was refused service.
It is a healthy correction we are having, we will be able to go up with a solid base
164.
Post 8329024 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Dell accepts it, inflation is going up, mal practices in the western finance and heavy government corruption is happening but bitcoin is going down : PANIC BUY
165.
Post 8367081 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Big new orders between 450$ and 470$ on finex.
looks like some long squeeze fatalities want their coins back at a similar price to the sell.
about 13k btc in longs have been closed/liquidated last couple of days so Finex has a major mountain of fiat rocket fuel.
Interesting times ahead.
You would think this fiat is going to the market again + new adopters + less selling in the end of 2014 or early 2015, the anticipation of the next mining reward halve will also push the price up
Before that, we may be heading to 400s again
166.
Post 8795859 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.12h):
I thought Wall Street was back from their beach vacations now. Everyone told me the price would rocket after they came home.
Did they extend their vacations? What gives?
they're not stupid
they wait for everyone to sell.
which is what i should have done... oh well.
The price was 100$ a year ago and 10$ two years ago so chill!
167.
Post 8828262 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.12h):
whilst Huobi/Stamp were dumping someone kept buying up all the coins under 480 on Finex. There's actually less coins to 3,000 on Huobi now than few hrs ago when price was higher and same goes for Bitfinex + $500
even just as i type this the guy on bitfinex buys all coins under 480 again, he's picking up a fair few coins
It is how a market works; some buy and some sell
There are a lot of buyers and new comers with money; for exemple Bitcoin believers who get an inheritance or an unexpected amount of money will buy a lot of bitcoins
168.
Post 8880966 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
People are buying the fuck back in.
Then selling again
Day's Range:
$407.94 - $452.99 on Bistatmp; am surprised nobody said "cheap coins" yet
169.
Post 8885447 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
What does double bottom mean?
It is a pattern in price graphs, that
supposedly indicate a trend reversal.
Check more info
here.
In short, we are doubly fucked, which is promising.
No, it could go either way, we have been there before, it is very hard to predict even if it seems it is going to go in a direction
170.
Post 8923542 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
I think this will be the last couple of days that 400 holds, I think we will be visiting 300-360 soon enough.
same, generally, but the time part is so hard to nail down. it's impossible to get the short term details right, but everything has been pointing for me to that general range. we could bounce a bit, hell, given all the shorts taken out at 400, we could bounce 30 or 40 points, but i think low-mid 300s are coming in the next couple weeks.
There are no buyers. It's that simple. The result of 9 months of dumping and chasing cheap coins.
Everybody thought that after crashing down tons of buyers were dying to get in with cheap coins. Nope. There is nobody.
Now of course i keep reading we need to hit 350 before we can get back up. And after that 260. Well, these new buyers won't suddenly appear then. Also there is no guarantee we will go back again. As i keep saying one day it will stop. People will get tired of losing money. Of getting dumped on by traders every time they invest some money.
For now the Bitcoin hype is over and we better hope for something good to happen or all your cheap coins will be just that. Cheap coins.
The question is will we learn from this situation. And the answer is most likely no.
There has been tons of buyers that is why the price recovered to 600$ + a few months ago and there is still a lot of buyers but there is a lot of sellers as well and a lot of new coins hit the market
The Bitcoin hype will come back when the fiat currencies will show what they truly are : manipulated, inflated and unreliable for store of value
171.
Post 8966031 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
...
I live in South East Asia, I live on around $2000 a month. That's in a nice villa, with a nice car, and I eat out at least 2x a day (in western restaurants not local food)
in Europe my lifestyle would eat 90% of my income, over here I save >75% of my income.
In most of US, you wouldn't be able to afford your lifestyle, period. I lived on $2k a month (NYC) and trust me, there was no talk of "villas" or saving
Yeah, I lived in NYC, my friend's gym membership in manhattan was $300 a month.
2k$/month even after tax sets you for a very poor and stressing life in a big rich western city
2k$/month + 2k$/month for your girlfriend all after tax may start paying you a kind of confortable life
172.
Post 8979535 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
Dear Bitcoin,
We've been watching you walk up to the edge and look down like you're about to jump several times already. To be quite honest, we're all getting sick of it. Please make up your mind. Either jump, or come back up from the ledge already.
2014 - The year of the bull trap
2014 is the year of the price consolidation before the next jump, people that sold below 400$ were all the victims of bull traps so far
173.
Post 9058833 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.18h):
Cheap coins confirmed by Bill Gates.
Shroomi can't disagree with that.
Let's dump another 1000 coins!Heavy manipulating while adoption is growing, the next halving is getting closer (one day at a time
) and people learn about Bitcoin; the current fiat system has not showed clearly to everyone its unsustainability; when it will have the price will spike up to a few thousands Dollars at least, it will be fun
174.
Post 9098973 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
that wall belongs to FEDs.
Guys i think this makes sense, because BitStamp wouldnt dare to take FEDs coins right? I mean whos stupid enough to leave that many coins on a foreign exchange ?
And don't forget to sell on Sunday to ensure the lowest possible price! Yes, yes, you can collect overtime for working Sunday.
There's no way this price level holds when the banks open tomorrow. If it does, I start hitting all the pawn shops and loan sharks I know. Can't imagine I'll be the only one doing it, either.
When you say "There's no way this price level holds" you mean that the price will recover; the price is not going to hold means the price is going down
How the hell am I supposed to get any sleep tonight?
This, my entertainment for the night
What kinds of odds are posters placing on the price movement - either after the wall is pulled or after the wall is eaten?
It seems most posters seem inclined to believe the price will be bullish, and for the reasons of my earlier post, I am inclined to believe it is bearish (b/c the fiat is going to be exhausted by the quantity of coins being purchased at this $300 price point - and NO current ability to add fiat to Stamp).
Could go down a bit more but there is a lot of fiat on bitstamp waiting to buy back
That´s a fucking big wall. 18000 BTC $5,400,000 USD. WOW! Someone it´s hurry to sell all his bitcoins or to manipulate hard the market to dump the price a lot.
Huge wall if the price goes up he will lose a lot
175.
Post 9109396 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.21h):
Maybe he was "just stupid" maybe he was "panic selling" or maybe the guy took some mushrooms and felt like selling? or maybe overlord Xenu ordered him to sell...Maybe a unicorn rogered him until he sold
Maybe the Bitcoins became self aware and sold themselves.
That he was just stupid and decided to make a stupid sell move I do not buy personally.
Let's face it. The bulls have made a bullish story about it, the bears have made a bearish story about it. The most interesting thing will be the trend over the next fortnight
He could have to sell to buy back cheaper, who knows; the price recovered and we didn't see the lows expected by bears who were wrong again!
176.
Post 9184179 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
If you sold at 800$ plus, bravo!
But saying there was no buying when you were at 1000$ + is not true, there was a buyer for each seller and nice volume, remember?
It didn't last but the price has been holding up most of 2014, maybe it is time to buy back in the market because the USD and western financial system collapses are around the corner
177.
Post 9414349 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.28h):
"For anyone complaining about the current price of bitcoin, remember it has more than doubled over the last 12 months."
~Bitcoin Jesus
Oct 5th.
But still you cant ignore the fact that once it was more than 1k.
Yes but you can't ignore the price has been very high this year relative to the average price in 2013
178.
Post 10043599 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
"Bad news" and we are rising! More please!
20k+ shorts on finex
If the price goes up enough, the short will need to cover their contracts and everyone will be looking up.
FRESH FIAT MONDAY !
I bet many of us sent money on Saturday or Monday morning, it will arrive on Monday and Tuesday.
179.
Post 10334883 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.55h):
looks like swaps begin to turn bullish
Very bullish, futures are bullish and I see a lot of support so I decided to make a big move and buy a large amount for the first time. If I decided to do it, I imagine others will do it too.
180.
Post 10335004 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.55h):
looks like swaps begin to turn bullish
Very bullish, futures are bullish and I see a lot of support so I decided to make a big move and buy a large amount for the first time. If I decided to do it, I imagine others will do it too.
mmmm, no, I wont.
You wont but I will try.
Lol dude, youre just following chinese P&D scheme. BTC hasnt touched decent support level to recover yet.
You are trying way, way too hard.
As soon as the cash arrives on the exchange I will buy at market price, hopefully it doesn't move up much before then.
The price could go up to 300$ in a heartbeat and if the market participants were not depressed by the low prices that they suffered, the price could go to 400$ and 500$ easily as well. It was there just Yesterday.
181.
Post 10335050 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.55h):
looks like swaps begin to turn bullish
Very bullish, futures are bullish and I see a lot of support so I decided to make a big move and buy a large amount for the first time. If I decided to do it, I imagine others will do it too.
mmmm, no, I wont.
You wont but I will try.
Lol dude, youre just following chinese P&D scheme. BTC hasnt touched decent support level to recover yet.
You are trying way, way too hard.
Bullish my ass, it was $235 at 3 days ago, $300 at 7 days ago!
You called this bull market? FUCK YOU scammer!
Coming from the trusted newbie. Where did us being kind go?
It is coming back to a bull market, it is obvious the market tries to come back but so many traders are shorting; they will suffer heavily when the price comes back to 280$ in 72 hours.
182.
Post 12062932 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.22h):
I think I will sell a tiny little bit at 320$ but the price will go to thousands when the market will factor in no rates raises or almost no rates raises from the FED.
183.
Post 12609103 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.27h):
Wow, Cryptsy and the Garza family business is corrupt! Next you'll try telling me that Mark Karpeles is an incompetent, latte drinking, fat, price fixing, thieving piece of shit. No way dude! lol
The constant flood of crooked exchanges, criminal businesses, unfavorable laws and developer infighting is turning Bitcoin into an international joke. Bitcoin seriously needs a PR firm.
It has been a tough year, the price is still healthy though.
184.
Post 12809055 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.29h):
300 $ and it will probably be at 1000$ within 6 months
185.
Post 13051919 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.34h):
Some bitcoin holders buy bitcoins for christmas and some sell it to buy presents but the price is likely to go up as the dollar will crash
186.
Post 13592210 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.41h):
Bitcoin Prise again on another rise for the 1000$ ?
Would be great
When the paradigm will change, the price could increase 10 fold in a few months
187.
Post 13727369 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.42h):
...
the idea is to have enough TX on the network so that fee's replace block subsidy.
i say, let the BMO's blockchain app spam away!
The idea, for now, is to build up userbase. That's the point of block rewards.
We are not growing fast at the moment but the userbase is large enough so that the price could shoot up to thousands of dollars when the develop world's economy starts tanking again
188.
Post 16287443 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.57h):
The FED will have to acknowledged that we are in a recession after the us presidential election then it will probably ease even more so the $ will drop and the bictoin will gain nominal value as well as real value.
189.
Post 17296025 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.00h):
The FED will have to acknowledged that we are in a recession after the us presidential election then it will probably ease even more so the $ will drop and the bictoin will gain nominal value as well as real value.
The US economic fundamentals are great for Bitcoin :
The FED raised interest rates of 0.25 which shows the economy is very weak and can't afford higher interest rates. In years of so called tightening policy it raised interest rates of only 0.5 and they still are at historically low levels. The FED didn't shrink the balance sheet either and is reinvesting interests from maturing bonds.
When the sh.it will hit the fan and bubbles will burst, the $ value will likely go down so the Bitcoin value in $ and in real terms will go up.
Bitcoin needs more good publicity but it will get it when the price will soars, it needs to be more and more adopted, in what proportion is it the case ?
190.
Post 18110261 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.05h):
Why is this a 1?
What am I missing?
Is ETF by tomorrow?
Have I lost my mind?!
Anyone?
I need to know too what this jumping one is. Im guessing forever, but i have no clue :/
Clearly they have insider knowledge that today the etf approves
let's see if it's buy the rumor sell the facts.
it could also be a long-term move up because the Dollar will be inflated by the FED as will other fiat currencies since the governments will likely choose inflation over decreasing nominal spending.
191.
Post 18248057 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.06h):
Finally, back to normal?
It could go to 700$ then to 1500$ within 5 months. It seems like a good time to sell and buy back from 950 USD to 850 USD.
192.
Post 18338947 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
Everyone that uses TA and chart signals to trade bitcoin is a stupid person. TA is a fishnet used by market makers to catch small fish. The so called day traders are just adrenaline junkies. Short term you might have some success. Even broken clock is correct twice per day. But long term you'll lose your capital. Best strategy for bitcoin proved throughout all those 8 years is to buy whenever you can and hold!
Thx, but hodling through major crashes in the last years I started to appreciate the sense of staying liquid and do some trades, especially near trend reversals. Being a baghodler is stressing in a bear market. But it's even true that hodling btc has been the most profitable thing I ever did.
Holding and playing long term beats most day and short term traders but some day and short term traders use profitable techniques. Their feelings and techniques can be ev>0 for years then not anymore but being connected to the market and projecting a deep and being right is not only related to bare luck.
193.
Post 20994613 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.18h):
Quelle est la probabilité que le prix descende sous les 3000 USD au moins une fois dans les 6 prochains mois ?
Je dirais >70%.
194.
Post 49451575 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.28h):
Bitcoin is useful to digitally keep some wealth out of the official banking system.
Now that the FED is leaving the tightening rhetoric, us prices will soar, the dollar will crash, gold will go up.
Bitcoin is very likely to spike again.
195.
Post 51729783 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.54h):
The price went up +500$ in a few hours, it could be a bulltrap or we could see an other correction but that feels very bullish and the sentiment is very high.
How much would the price go up if LIBRA
https://libra.org says they will have 0.1% of their reserves in bitcoin ?
It would be a good idea to have some bitcoin and some gold to protect the value of their reserves against fiat inflation and loss of values of the big currencies and to be ready to buy more if needed.
196.
Post 51759878 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.55h):
Some think it peaked and that there should have a correction do they go short, it rallies and they end up covering which fuels the rally even more.
+
FOMO
But at some point the whales pumping will sell and a portion who bought up 8k+ in 2017 will remember the felling they had of not selling at 15k+ only to see the price going down under their buying price so they will get prudent and sell some.
197.
Post 51761293 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.55h):
There was an open sell order of 7500 btc at 12,100 and the wall has been entirely bought up !
Nice !
It makes me think why would someone put a sell order of 100m$ because if you do, it means you want to sell, why put such a high selling wall that will be bearish for the very price you want to go up ? Maybe because you don't want the price to go up but the wall was eaten and the 7500 btc were sold.
198.
Post 52953846 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.06h):
October 31st price poll : >$20,000 - 10 (7%)
Some of us are extremely optimistic. It is bullish for the price because it's a massive support for the price.
199.
Post 53547199 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.11h):
At 8100 USD we are in :
-A December 2020 bull market
but also in :
-A H2 2020 bear market
-A 2019 bull market
-A December 2017 bear market
-A 2008 bull market
Your pick ?
200.
Post 53638426 (copy this link) (by boumalo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.12h):
The price is going up from the January 2th 2020 low around 6900 and the consolidation around 8100 usd between the 10th and the 14th of January.
There is resistance around 9000, what and when is the next resistance upwards of 9000 ?
