Actually its more like this:

Wow such similarities. Very coincidence







and finally if you haven´t seen it    

yup, a $50 move up makes me think we are going to drop 50% as well   

read his previous post at me.....then u may understand where I am coming from...

....and thing is, when I pit my ego against the ego of 'The Bitcoin Nutter', sometimes I get slapped down.....but most of the time, I don't. Most of the time, I am right and they are wrong.

The Bitcoin nutter is a simple creature and not hard to outwit.

Not sure what this is about... that he's leveraging? Or that he thinks the we're in an overall downtrend? Because pointing out about the former that it is quite risky for a volatile beast like Bitcoin makes sense to me, but I see nothing wrong with the latter statement.

I don't see a downtrend either, but neither do I see (or anyone who isn't delusional) an uptrend. Consolidation, with an unclear destination. That was my point though: I don't see a problem with betting on the market moving sideways to downwards. I *do* see a problem with risk management when shorting this market for any amount of time longer than a few hours to a day during a clear major corrective move.

I don't see a downtrend either, but neither do I see (or anyone who isn't delusional) an uptrend. Consolidation, with an unclear destination. That was my point though: I don't see a problem with betting on the market moving sideways to downwards. I *do* see a problem with risk management when shorting this market for any amount of time longer than a few hours to a day during a clear major corrective move.

Dammit when will we see the 700s again. Everyone knows that this is the fair value of bitcoin at the moment, yet we remain in the 800s.

I have a feeling about this.

I believe that:

1. the get-rich-quick sheeple are silently dumping
2. the bots are from coinbase/bitpay (because they have a lot of interest in keeping the price really stable) and from some fiat whales who are silently getting in without slippage.
3. new get-rich-quick sheeple + early dumpers who want back in - they are not buying and waiting on the sidelines instead because April 2013.

It is a nerve grinding game. Anything could happen in the immediate.

 

You're a dreamer.

Stamp is crawling around the floor. Willy stopped buying, so Gox-Boost is tuned off.

The only reason that is impeding a hard dump is Huobi. They don't move, and they don't care a lot about Stamp and Gox.

There is no visible trend anywhere, price is floating between Support and Resistance.

The very basest of human action can be justified under any philosophy. It's wise to see things as they are and not what you think they ought to be.

I'm interested in this. Not quite sure who the burden of proof should fall upon here - the one claiming that monopolies are possible only with government or the one claiming monopolies are possible without government. We certainly have lots of cases of monopolies co-existing with government, but I know of no cases of monopolies existing without government. This might primarily be because we have few cases of there being no government, period. Personally I tend to think that the institutionalization of the monopoly on coercive force is quite instrumental in upholding monopolies. I can see them being created without there being a government, but don't see them lasting very long without providing excellent products/services and/or developing government-like qualities themselves. Could you perhaps point me towards some materials supporting your claim that this is just an-cap dogma?

You need a 0 in front of the decimal.

bitcoin itself is a permanent bull trap

But yet you can't make yourself sell .

which would mean they sold, which would mean we most likely get buying pressure after the event.

Because bitcoin is a bubble with no real value. Someday this will appear clearly.

Leveraged a short term long position @ 812. Choo choo and all that.

Liquidating it on legal way, yes, there is possibility. Running off with the last of the coins, no, he is smart enough to know that he won't enjoy that money for too long.

Last call to board the train, Last call

Why are all non-mtgox markets lagging so much behind?

I would say the contrary. Since we broke 750 support, is all the way down to 700 and even 600 if people panic more. And a recovery will be so slow, you'd grow old watching it.

Either of you care to make a wager on this?

I live in a town of 12,000 where only about a dozen people have heard of it and I'm the only one who owns any. Yeah, we're still in the stealth phase.

Yes I told my brother to invest $500 when BTC was at $200 and he acted like it was monopoly money that people are pumping. "I don't trust it"...

Iwas heavily informing all my friends I have on Facebook (and that's real friends mainly, not some strangers) about Bitcoin since it was 250$. I got only one to buy few coins at 800$.

We are all scared of the Doge.

Ok, which chineze whale has the balls to push this sucker trough the 5k barrier.

And how do you expect that choo choo to happen? Based on what?
It's clear nobody is just gonna buy. People are way too afraid at these prices. We've had some huge companies accept Bitcoin. It made the price drop. Or well not directly but it suddenly didn't make it go up. That and then also the slightest hint of negative news and people completely shit their pants and sell. As much as i want the train to leave again i don't see how it will happen. I have the feeling a lot of people think we reached the top and want to get out.

There are 1500 billionaires and 12 million millionaires on this planet.

FACT.

I thought that was pretty interesting. hope y'all do too.

btc-e down.. Please no dump until it comes back

If 688 falls, I'm expecting 620 today.

Holy big buy on stamp!

You are spreading panic and suggesting people they should sell. I often lost money because I listened to some "guru´s" here.

huh?

There are always unpleasant jobs that go to people with low skills. The fact that these jobs are unpleasant is what motivates people to obtain skills, such as robot repair.

I'm bit sick of anticipating next BTC moves so I'm buying alts at the moment, there's room for profit on most of them.

You must have never been an employer. How can laborers be the foundation of society if they can be easily replaced by robots? Would robots then be the foundation of society? I agree that lawyers are mostly scum, but there is no way to overturn the laws of supply and demand by legislative fiat. Employers pay what they have to pay given the labor market conditions and workers take the best options available to them given the same. There will never be a time when the common man will only work for two days a week because competition for status and mates will exist at every wage level.

You would need at least a billion dollars if you were in love with Kate Upton and you were ugly. You would need at least a million dollars for any girl in the 90210 area code.

There are skilled labor shortages in many industries. There are unskilled labor surpluses. The free market could easily and quickly solve both these problems if the government would get out of the way.

Unskilled labor is honest work and there's nothing wrong with it, but if I get cancer, I don't need Consuela the cleaning lady to light a candle to Santa Maria de Guadalupe. I need a f*#!ing doctor.

@arepo

I'm sure I'm not the first pedant to say your sig should read:

This sentence has fifteen words, seventy-five letters, three commas, one hyphen and a period.

 

If it were really true that replacing backhoe operators with shovels would improve employment, then why wouldn't we go further and replace shovels with spoons? The fact is that employers face competition for employees in a free market just as much as job seekers face competition for jobs. Wages are bid down AND up, so what ultimately determines wages is productivity. Backhoe operators are so much more productive than manual ditch diggers that society can afford to pay the manufacturers and servicers of backhoes, manufacturers of the parts , the miners and harvesters of raw materials and the suppliers of fuel substantially more than the unskilled laborers they displace.

I'm sorry, but if you are too stupid or stubborn to upgrade your skills when technology makes them obsolete, it's your problem-not society's.

Says who? We didn't all benefit equally from the domestication of cows. Some people are lactose intolerant. I really don't understand this obsession with equality that is unheard of in nature. It's completely subjective. Equality in outcomes or equality in opportunity? Equal rewards for effort or for productivity? The former produce what economists call "perverse incentives". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perverse_incentive

You really should read this: http://www.tnellen.com/cybereng/harrison.html

I'm not attempting to convince him to die quietly. I'm attempting to convince him to do something society values enough to keep him alive. There are those that simply don't have that ability and they should be helped, but those who chose not to support themselves are choosing to die and I respect their choice, even if I don't agree with it.

Technology doesn't destroy work! Displaced autoworkers become robot builders and technicians and the pool boys at the gated communities of the wealthier GM executives and stockholders! That extra margin that automakers gain by automation is spent back into the economy. That provides jobs for service industry workers, etc. Would you rather be an assembly line worker with repetitive stress injuries or a golf caddy? I honestly don't think that you've thought this through.

Thank Kurt Vonnegut.  All I did was copy and paste.

Close. Technology's sole purpose is to save energy. That computer you are typing on saves you the trouble of coming to my house and arguing your fallacies in person.

Killing and stealing only works until the productive people stop producing, and then everybody starves. The productive people started leaving South Africa in droves when the anti-capitalist Nelson Mendela took over. There's no place on earth with more natural resources per acre than South Africa. If people are starving there, then it's because the government killers and thieves created an environment hostile to peaceful trade.

 

I meant the first part, about the lovable guy who will kill you as necessary to survive.  I resemble that remark.

The other part I just write off as rhetoric.

I do NOT agree that technology is a sole purpose to destroy work.  We should NOT necessarily be hostile to technology. 

One of the central problems with technology, though is that frequently it is used to distract labor from unionization and solidarity and thereby the capitalists frequently become able to use and abuse technology in such a way that they extract nearly all of the surplus for themselves and use technology to divide and conquer, workers, labor and community.  In the end, workers become more and more exploited by this b/c frequently if there are NOT strong governments and/or strong unions, they are NOT allowed to reap(enjoy) the benefits of the technological innovations.

People who believe in no government and/or no unions also seem to believe in trickle down economics, as if giving the money to the capitalists and the rich, that some how, miraculously, that money will trickle down to the people and somehow suggesting that the capitalists deserve to take all the surplus value.. so they can be rainmakers.  Frequently, however, we have seen that trickle down does NOT work and there are failures to invest in infrastructure, and running away with the capital and even capitalists who engage in behavior to accumulate much more capital than they need or want... and the situation with these filthy rich is NO longer about the accumulation of capital but a form of keeping the capital away from the masses b/c they want to control and exploit the masses and they want to insist that capital is NOT distributed to regular people... b/c of desires to keep an exploitable group willing to work for anything..

We'll be trading sideways for sometime and maybe a slight dip in there, somewhere.
I see us ramp up June or July and we'll play this cycle all over again.

The same old trolls will come out again and say bitcoin is dead and we'll do this dance again.

 

Who thinks the situation in Ukraine will spark something in the bitcoin price?

I agree and I think it likely that many stolen coins were sold long ago, and kept prices depressed.

There are macroeconomic factors in play also. Relatively less money printing by the central bank, uncertainty on the Ukraine situation, lower wealth effect due to stock market pullback, etc.

Calling 520 within 48hrs. Then down to 380, then we're done with the bubble and can resume moon mission.

PS. Please don't take this as advice, I no longer trade BTC, I just enjoy charting it

Come on, come on!

It's gonna crash, litecoin is gonna follow in few hours

Nope. Lots of traders switching from BTC to LTC. Expect to da moon for LTC in the next weeks.

What does it matter, when I'm stuck in Folsom Prison?

  I'm sure they're drinking coffee
  and smoking big cigars

at Malla Castle.  But back here

   time keeps dragging on

and I'm not sure I can stay awake long enough to catch the LTC short wave

how did you short it?  bitfinex?

that was a nice rally

the money will come back from ltc to btc now, so prepare for increased btc volume soon (on all exchanges trading ltc and btc).

anybody tries to catch the falling ltc knife?

Was the retest of <$600 a turning point?
Buyers keep the price ticking back up and the BTC markets all look like they want to break the 2014 downtrend soon.

I saw a 986 sell order on btcwisdom and thought I was still looking at ltc, but actually it's bitstamp.

I finally moved out of btc-e after taking ltc/btc profit last night. I've been nervous about them for some time and it just keeps getting worse as time goes on.

Sure is a relief having everything in cold storage. I'll still use a few coins to buy alts, though, trying to increase my btc holdings before the next big ramp.

Right now hodling is the way to go, imo. Too easy to lose coins if you sell them for fiat. Best to just be patient, jump on any alts that are rallying and take profit in btc. Btc/usd could go down, but it probably won't go down much further. And the potential upside is, well...   

...or it could all tank and I'll be left with a measly few K in my checking account but that's just part of the fun isn't it? 

+3

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-19/chinese-yuan-collapsing

Two ways to look at this:

1) Broke Chinese aren't going to buy shit OR
2) with a crashing RMB, BTC could be a better store of value.

what happened to teh 593 bid? was it pulled?

I almost pissed my pants from laughing loudly

weekend rally?

Huobi has been trading just like gox when it was dying.

3-4 confirmations?

Still huge dumps on stamp. This isn't over yet.

The price is falling!! ... quick.. someone.. make couple of graphs and draw lines on it... that will stop it!

Gentlemen!
Whatever it is you're doing kindly stop doing it and do the opposite.
I don't like waking up to ... THIS

Putin and the rest of the victims of the latest round of sanctions have no access to VISA/Mastercard because VISA MC have stopped doing business with Rossiya Bank. BTC-e is the workaround if they are smart enough to use it. If sanctions escalate (and they are likely to), Bitcoin itself could get a huge boost. It's sanction-proof.

Let me remind you that facebook bought whatsapp for 19 billion USD.

to me, only question of time when 530 $ is breach.

then it will be panic time.

If you're right, then long bitcoin short stocks could be an extremely profitable trade right now. That's what my money is on.

i think bears are getting greedy

Any longtimer here who wants to escrow a bet?

I have watched that the HODL word is so much used in this forum. I have searched in almost the whole internet and didn't found anything about its meaning. So I registered exclusively to ask this:

What the f+ck does HODL mean?

Just the hype I was looking for to create another selling opportunity.

does this look like a perfect double, nay tripple-bottom to anyone else?

This looks like a bulltrap mixed with scores of misplaced optimism/desperation.

Yupeee, it's jubilee, you're about to change your opinion 100th time in last week 7 days

NICE BULL TRAP !!!

this is a classic bull trap.

you are a bull and you are TRAPPED !!

LEVERAGED @555$ to the MAX includin Bitcoin bought with fresh FIAT



4 more weeks of holiday?

Nothing better than seeing the train live: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lutNECOZFw

people can't figure out bitcoin overnight.. I fucking slept on it for two years, and regret every naive moment.

Please help me interpret what is going on at Huobi right now. There is a fair bit of volume, but the price is fixed at 3540. It looks very odd, like two dealers/bots cancelling each other out. It did the same thing last night between 2 and 3. It is as if someone has decided that 3540 is the perfect price to buy coins at. Or am I misinterpreting what is going on?

I was also looking at the chart on Bitcoinwisdom. The chart on https://www.huobi.com/ shows the same thing.

Here is the section that puzzles me:


As mentioned the graph on Huobi shows the same thing, so unless they also have a bug I find it a bit fishy.

I know that, but there's a difference between 400X profits and outperforming the market by 400X. You can get 400X profits just by buying and holding long enough. Beating the market by 40,000% is a different thing entirely.

lol nice. I'm going to save this quote. It's a classic. I'm glad I'm not a banker or something.

Hm, how do you know that?

Every dollar that one client withdraws from an exchange was deposited by some other client.  If one client has profit (withdraws more USD than he deposited), some other client will eventually have a loss (withdraw less than he deposited).  So the sum of all profits and losses is zero; actually a bit negative because of fees.

Are you counting profit in BTC, or discounting BTC holdings as investments? That makes things more complicated, but in the end trading does not create dollars nor BTCs, so if one wins, someone else must lose, no?

That still doesn't say how many traders make a profit or loss; it could be that only a few smart traders make huge profits and everybody else loses, or vice-versa.

How can you transfer something that does not exist? Makes no sense.

So i'm guessing you've bought back in fully based on your recent posts.

I don't really know what that means. It crossed the 4hr MA earlier and the 12h MA will be crossed maybe in 2-3 days. So?

If you use the logic that buying should result in additional buying, then you create an infinite snowball of buying that goes on forever. Obviously this is not logical.

I thought we're going to the moon? 

No thx. I'd rather dump all over this party. At least until we hit double digits.

just like TA does not when sudden news come out 

TA predicts the news! DUH!

Me thinks whales are concerned about future taxing and capital gains on btc.



I shorted at 590, so fuck it, I will shotr moar at 525.

EEEE i don't want to invest in bitcoin because it will go up like crazy and i will have gains to declare
EEEE sooo mmmm ill buy some stocks so i can declare losses  


ya ok.

you´re right

Since when did you have to be Chinese to trade in China or @Huobi...just as likely it was Rpiella and Tera lol

It's not like CaVirtEx is with CAD citizen only traders to the best of my knowledge.

How did buying in at 560 yesterday go for you Chessnut?

totally unpredictable market...

...see you when the next bubble is in full swing (April 29th).

Is the retrace over already? 

Dr. Ly, if you ask me, ask chessnut about that tomorrow. You might get completely different answer 

 

So what excuse do you have that your TA hasn't made you a millionaire yet? All you people who believe in their own TA nonsense have one. What's yours?

3200 was crossed upwards at least five times yesterday, starting at 13:18 UTC.  Why didn't it count?

 

*Bink*

465-475 was a BIG support level with the 300 EMA. But this bounce is on small volume. Everyone of the bounces lately have been enemic.  The bears gave the bulls every chance in the world to breach $620. And the bulls didn't even try.

Meanwhile, the bears got bored and dropped us 20% on "rumors". If and when those rumors get confirmed on the exchanges I don't see the bulls putting up a fight until $400ish. I could be wrong, but the buyers are just not around right now.

Now that Bitstamp is becoming the main exchange, it's going to take 5K-10K walls to be significant, like the good old days, rather than 1K walls.

textbook beartraps during the recovery after the bottom, could go as low as 480$, but probably not

I am thinking around 520~ for the next 6h candle, and to 560~ after

When people are complaining and saying "its not cheap yet" after missing a bottom its usually a dead on indicator to buy

Why is everyone still following Huobi with their goddamn fake volume?

Trader at stamp:
"Oh look, Huobi is going down, I guess I have to click the sell button, fast!!!"

Nice reverse head&shoulders @15min chart

You're in since November? I thought/feared the same thing after getting in after the "popped" bubble in May and saw a steady decline for months. Turns out, this "slow death" has happened quite a few times before and is considered "normal' in bitcoin land. We're still at about 25x of where we've been this time last year.

Yeah...bugger all that EW nonsense...fall back on wishful thinking

I know you are an EW expert but I've done my own research and study into it as well as TA and in traditional markets I believe they are very useful tools.  But BTC is very sentiment driven (check my profile I did a LOT of homework before I even started posting never mind bought a coin) and often behaves contrary to what traditional analysis 'predicts'.

For me one of the fundamentals of TA (or EW) is the bid sum ---its so simple but as humans we love to over complicate things --- right now the bid/ask ratio is 1:2.35.  I don't need to explain that to you but its a scary figure yeah?

"But gosh Creekbore, that can change any moment!"

Yeah, our fairy godmother could pop in and buy a couple of mill BTC....or maybe not :/

The trend over the last three months has been a declining bid sum and an increasing ask sum -- investors want to leave the market and there is no new investment.  It's that simple.

I REALLY wish it wasn't so (then I could make some money too)...but we are heading for a deep and protracted bear market.

China is sub 3k and has poo for volume

How is that "sparking up"

China can be more or less ignored when its volume is low. Jorge would call these "Slumber periods" I think.

Is that a BTC1,300 super bidwall?

Goddammit I'm bitcoin's worst trader, today's masterpiece: I shorted at 487.

Simply doing the opposite of my decisions is one of the best indicators available

Close your shorts immediately and go long to recover losses (or lose double if it goes down to 440$ afterwards)

 

Would you mind posting a chart of your EW analysis?

Hmm. China actually kind of IS sparking right now. Up to 3013y on Huobi.

@chessnut

Thanks, i agree with all your points. The only thing that worries me is the fact of the small bid depth.
But the charts indeed look like we should see a nice upward correction at least.

"cheap coins" - another cultist term

Imagine you were selling bitcoin futures contracts. What would someone have to pay you now in return for your bitcoin a year from now?

These coins are going up and you know it. You just don't know how much they're going to go down first.

No.

 Because last weekend there was a dip due to a bogus story of a bitcoin ban in China. This week, there is another bogus story of a bitcoin ban in China. Some people are thinking the market is that stupid. They may be right, but although successful, this strategy may be starting to show diminishing returns.

it's called a triangle consolidation pattern. but don't worry, we're just about to break out

I do NOT understand why the bottom line is shorter than the top one.  You are just trying to line them up with what you consider to be logical points?   I am NOT suggesting any manipulation.. I am just wondering, since there seems to be quite a bit of line drawing variation.

It´s gettin real paranoid we have the 9/11 discussion in rpetilias TA thread, and some people in here
really believe that Jorge is a paid "troll"(probably J.P.Morgan). Unbelievable.
I think a small bull run would cure you all  
I won´t imagine the discussions in here when we drop to 100$
NWO and Lizards all over the place  

stamp on the dump

Cough, cough  

what the f is going on with the f-ing chinese? starting to get pissed with btc

You're my idol

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we would see a mini rally on SUnday. Whatever it would happen with China on Monday, mini rally on Sunday is what you would expect to happen in bitcoin land.

At 465 people will find a reason to panic sell to 420. At 420 someone will dump 2k coins and everybody will panic sell to 350. At 350 people figure there are cheap coins at 266 and will sell to get there. Reaching 266 total panic will break out and we will drop to 180.

Hey, Chessnut!
Sorry mate...I'm not stalking you honest (but you do make a number of claims re your trading/intellectual prowess)...you seem to change your opinion very quickly (14 hours ago you were bragging about your EW mastery and posted a chart that claimed we were heading back to 540.  I see that worked out.

Since then I've been catching up and see


12 hours later

Everyone's allowed to change their mind but its kind of shameless the way you state each changing position as being 'correct' while never acknowledging the fact you get things wrong regularly.

Excuse me for interrupting the pecker measuring contest but could someone do me a favour and just sanity check something for me.

How many coins are for sale on Huobi right now?

Well, there's the contradiction above plus the dick-waving you were doing yesterday about your EW chart.

You do claim to be 'right' a lot of the time...which makes a fool like me highly suspicious

If you've been around so long you'll remember (name redacted to avoid embarrassment) 'Reversal' thread (which has been deleted it seems)....that was full of very confident, highly intellectualised posts, lots of fancy graphs with lines and buckets.  It was pretty much wrong at every turn, yet every time people  would (with great agility) change their position and carry one posting new, concrete PoVs.  

And if you think I'm giving you a hard time you should have seen the stick they got.

Me, all I know is that I know little.

Well, you're contradicting yourself now (yesterday you told me you'd made at least one loss).

But why come on here and brag about your trades?  It makes little sense other than reveal vanity and insecurity (is it really that important that a bunch of strangers need to think highly of you?).

I doubt anyone notices that I don't post my trades (I suggest most people would care less)...but if you want to post a running commentary on your personal financial exploits, why get so touchy if someone questions the veracity of your claims.

You have a reputation to maintain?

You missed the news: when the descending triangle breaks the third ascending Elliot Wave confirming the exponential trend line corresponding to Mynott's adoption curve then all the institutional money (which has been placed off the exchanges in 'dark orders' with illuminati miners) will enter the market guaranteeing the price to climb to USD$100K.

Or something like that.

dat volume

How big is this hidden buy wall at 476?

Huobi doesn't seem to care and persists in dump mode?

cant tell, because it's hidden, but so far, pretty big.

Does this mean that we should buy, now?  we're no t going lower?

Interesting

I don't get it? If the rumous is true the price goes up?

If the China ban is confirmed the price goes up? Sorry, but i must be reading something wrong.

Bullwhales are waking up on Bitstamp:


Someone dumped 1000 BTC and right after that, a buy order of 32000 BTC was triggered!!!

WTF

How do you test if a rumour is true?

sell 1k coins. hits a bottom? the insiders are buying - then proceed to buy all the coins you can get your hands on.

Looks like a double bottom to me!  

Still does not feel like a bottom. 

We haven't seen high volume on anything yet.  This one is slow and painful.

So we only see bottoms, like the ones in the pictures, during high volume?   

And, accordingly, I would take it that the volume is high during the bottom, and then there is a switch in direction and the volume stays high until it tapers out for consolidation or thereafter volume stays up for some time before it goes up and tapers out at a higher amount?

Somebody wake up China, its getting late here and I want to be around for liftoff.

why do you think the ban is fake?

Wait so this is now the rumor about a rumor?

I agree that sell volume was not as strong on the last push down, but buy volume was enemic.

I guess you think the worst is past us. No more issues from here. $436 is the new perma-low.

So I suppose we could be talking about patterns, absent fairy godmother whales, b/c the fairy godmother whales are going to mess up any kind of pattern that may be the usual... .... but bitcoin seems to NOT be the usual b/c it does seem to be fairly easy to manipulate with just a few million dollars....... I recognize that manipulation also depends upon volume.. so seems to be easier to manipulate during times when there is less volume.... but the attempts to manipulate may draw other whales if the manipulator(s) is(are) NOT subtle about it.

NOW.. if the china ban rumor ends up being true.. then this could put a cog in my speculation..  At this point, I am "speculating" that the chances for the china rumor to be true is fairly unlikely... maybe less than 5% chance that material aspect of it is true.

As for 'the smart money' dinking around with local bitcoins it seems laughable to me.  Possibly there are agents working generally on their behalf trying to scrape up BTC wherever they can find it but these would be autonomous actors who have nothing better to do than to run around to various Starbucks and stuff money into envelopes and such.

I mean this in the most sincere way, take the money you are "speculating" with and buy yourself something you enjoy, or go on a trip.

Yes. Tired of all the hasty abuse of train images. People do that each time there's a small jump, ignorant that each time they're making noise it's for a much lower price than the last time they made noise.

And no sooner does someone yell "CCMF" than the price begins to dive again, deeper than the previous low.

Kids these days.  

If I understood correctly the Google Transalte output, this article says that students at a university entrance examination in China were asked to evaluate Bitcoin risk, among other random questions:

http://www.dzwww.com/shandong/sdnews/201403/t20140331_9926899.htm

Is this bullish or bearish? 

Tuesday you mean, unless you're experiencing Monday I'm still 34 minutes out.

I doubt China would April fools us..but I mean weirder things have happened. I think the market is ready to absorb the news as false...and then digest the possible regulations being added but I just don't see an outright ban on bitcoin...why waste time on posting it...to somehow give your people a chance at dumping first.. that seems way too altruistic

CCMF CHOO MOTHER FUCK'n CHOO

You should have sold in the 480s. Not that we won't see them again, but you are yelling into a tidal wave right now.

Looking through the last 10 pages and nobody has used the term "cheap coins" even once.
That's quite bearish:)

China will most likely start the day with another round of dumping.

The problem is not chinese news it's IRS considering bitcoin as property. Anyone who got that already ? Don't you understand what's going on ? Permabull can't see ?

If we wait for all of this to be accomplished, then the price would have already on the occurrence.  That is why some early adopters of BTC realized price returns of more than 100 times their original investment.  There is NO guarantee any positive returns will continue or that all of the factors will align in order to allow for positive returns.

We havent even tested 400 yet,... Bears.. I thought u had more power...

Well this strenghthens my belief in a huge upside potential mid-longterm

Good luck all!

How can the sentiment be so bearish if half the posters on here are arguing the same thing that you are?

I thank God Almighty that I'm not the sucker who sold 7000 coins.

What I am finding is confirmation bias from both sides. Ignore that which doesn't suit your agenda, and select that which does.

You call that a pump?

Yeah, guess you might be on to something... this could turn into a:

+1 Nice post.

Of course, some are so blinded by their ego they are unwilling to explore arguments that run counter to their own.

I gauge each individual by what they post, not what someone else posts about them (although I do use what someone says about others to gauge their own character).

I work with the information I have. I don't know any of you personally, so posts are all I have to go on. You neither need nor not need me judging you. It should be neutral for you. That is to say, since we don't know each other at all, my opinion of you should mean nothing to you on an emotional level.

Posters talking about other posters are opinions, not facts, and are not reliable information. When someone is publicly slamming another person, it's kind of redundant to say it's been made personal.

EDIT: If my opinion does actually turn out to matter to you, I don't have a problem with you (or creekbore, really), if that's what you're assuming by my responses.

All it takes is a rumour on twitter or one fake article to drop another 100 bucks. But no amount of good news will make it go up. So guess which way we will be going.

would you mind telling me what the chinese law is now?

Not really.  Anyone (say with a few million in donations from clients of a state owned enterprise)  can buy bitcoin whenever they want.  They just have to pay cash.

Triangle closing. Drop coming. Much fear. Some hope.

this is consolidation, not a rally... you should take off those bull-colored glasses

I thought it was 3600...

who is leading this, china?

Huobi and bitfinex and leading. There is a short squeeze in bitfinex from everyone who was shorting when 465 was broken expecting a huge drop. There is more volume on bitfinex in that spike than on bitstamp, which means all of it could be coming from bitfinex.

Yeah I guess exchanges are still following Huobi like a zombie. As long as China is still leading I am bearish because China is doomed to fail and what happens then?

You are WRONG. Huobi does have margin trading & the ability to short.

In this case, to go long I reccomend using at least the 1 day MACD and to use leverage, I reccommend using at least 3 day MACD. Otherwise, the only trading you should be doing is shorting, while using the smaller indicators for entries and exits. I have gotten burnt too many times now using the 4 hour MACD to enter a long and then it whipsaws.

Not convinced yet, but waking up and seeing price somewhat higher is nice

There's 2 ways that the market goes up. One, fresh fiat. Two, day traders covering short or margining long.

The latter one cannot sustain a rally.  The money flow indicators have been drying up for months. How long can this rally go without fresh money coming back in? $550? $530?

If/when this rally dies, what happens then? Do we get a chance at a high volume capitulation?

This weekend was the first time I started to sense real fear and anger on here. Since this is my first bubble, I can only go by my best guesses on this, but it seemed like the start of fear and anger, not the height of it.

Maybe I'm wrong.

To think that no fresh fiat is heading to exchanges is absurd...

Trend reversal always happens when despair is the greatest. Maybe the overall pessimism here is a good indicator for that.
It happens when people really get desperate, bearish sentiment is at its maximum, doomsday prophecies begin pouring in.
And just in that moment, when it is least expected, the bounce comes. You cannot really predict it.

Technical indicators cannot tell you when it will happen. They can only give you small hints.

for the last 3 days, the market has been pressured upwards in risk off situations.

over the weekend, when there was no chance of a PBOC announcement, the market was stable and lifted. furthermore, news of law enforcement on chinese exchanges failed to carve new lows on western based exchanges.

- there is lots of buying pressure.

today the market is nervously creeping up despite yesterdays fiasco.

If by the end of the chinese day there are no more announcements, the chances grow slimmer that there will be one before April 15th.

This said, I believe we should expect a rally in the next 48 hours, perhaps entering the low 500s.

use this to help your decision.

So you are saying we are no longer in a bear market? Can I quote you on this?

if thats what you need to keep telling yourself then i think you are in denial.

So I guess all those higher lows we have had since 1163 were just mirages? Like the one that took us 710. That didn't happen, right?

do timescales mean nothing to you? we made a higher high on the 1-day scale. not saying that this bullish price action is not significant, but since we've been making lower highs for the past 4 months, i'm pretty sure your statement is premature.

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

There are some things different about this wedge.

longer time-scale indicators point to a downtrend that is gaining momentum. there is some divergence on the shorter time frames, but that is what bulltraps in a bear market look like.

take a look at the daily-scale CMF and MACD:


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg150zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gCMFzi2gMACDzvzl

only today's data point is diverging, and today's candle is still premature. so, again, we've got countertrend action, but only on the daily scale, sub-daily if we consider a possible retracement in the next 12 or so hours. i would close that long soon, if i were you. you've already made some nice profit on it.

This is not like the other rallies at all:

That's not going to fix that the EMA has been breached twice and is now sloping downwards.

this is not at all how technical analysis works...

confirmed going to 0$, short now and rebuy at -10$