Gox has been steadily increasing while everywhere else is sideways.
An analysis of why and what I think it means:
http://theblogchain.com/2014/01/24/mtgox-is-mtvesuvius-the-full-story/Gox is going to crash upwards.
Been hearing this "crash upwards" story for almost a year now...
How interesting. I guess someone beat me to last month's data a year ago. Oh well.
lol
no for real we have been hearing about mtgox crashing upward for about a year
i think the fact that poeple can still withdraw EUR or anything other then USD keeps this from happening
Check the Gox withdrawal delays thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.2980EUR withdrawals are slowing down (limited to 1000eur/20days, but a max of 10,000eur/month (lol)), verifications aren't going through, BTC withdrawals are encountering more difficulty.
You're right--that
IS what has
KEPT it from happening.
Can we conclude that this sudden crash to ~750 in the Western exchanges was due to the news of Shrem's arrest?
Huobi was in the middle of a downtrend with occasional hiccups, but clearly it did not start that crash; and it reacted only slightly to it, presumably because of arbitrage trading.
It will be some time before the news of Shrem's arrest are translated and reported in Chinese media -- if they are at all. Until this morning I had never heard of the guy, and presumably he and the Bitcoin Foundation are totally unnown in China. So perhaps the Chinese markets will just ignore the incident.
They may ignore the news; they can't ignore the market movement.
China is beginning to get out of bed (7:15 am) and does not seem to be in a particularly good mood.
Meanwhile at Bitstamp and BTC-e, after a moment of irrational panic, traders calmed down, checked the news, thought it all over, and switched to a deliberate, methodical, coldly rational panic.
It's 6:30 in China right now, not 7:30. China runs on Beijing standard time.
Awwww, thanks! I don't have to keep spamming everywhere now.
What's with Bitfinex? No options to fill orders on Bitstamp? Can't see anything from Stamp on the book.
They explain it here:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/announcementsShort answer: They are now doing the math for you (.35% vs. .15% fees), and displaying the post-fee-difference price for BSTP.
Serious question: Would anyone use "GOX" if it was bought by a reputable company and re branded allowing limited customer withdrawals but with a guarantee that finds are safe. Then if they implemented full transparancy of user funds??
If the company is well known and can win back trust (e.g. by implementing a proof-of-ownership for all funds) I'm sure many people would. Also MK would need to be driven away with a large stick first.
If the customer base of MtGOX could generate enough money to cover its debts, they would not be insolvent. They could get loans to pay those debts with pressing deadlines, and eventually get back into the black.
Being insolvent means that they have more debts than assets, and their expected revenues in the medium term (say, two years) are not enough to fill the gap.
A company that acquires MtGOX will inherit their debts, and cannot expect to make more money than they did a month or two ago. That means net losses (and
big losses, while the clients withdraw their balances), for years perhaps. What is the point of the takeover then?
Thus, I would be very surprised if MtGOX gets rescued.
I wouldn't be. I made the argument here, although it's a simplistic one:
http://theblogchain.com/2014/02/26/mtgox-is-getting-rescued-by-other-bitcoin-businesses/Thanks.
I have one nit about your document: you suggest that the company that would rescue MtGOX could buy coins from the other exchanges. But the coins in the exchanges' wallets do not belong to the exchanges, they belong to their clients.
In fact, my preferred explanation at the moment for how MtGOX "lost" all those coins is that they sold them off-market in order to play with the cash, confident that they coudl re-purchse them if and when needed; but then the BTC price jumped from 100$ to 800$ in november-december, and they could no longer do that.
So, I think that it would be too risky (if not criminal) for the exchanges to sell those coins to the Save-MtGOX company. Ditto for any bitcoin investment funds.
Does this make sense?
I think that's a possible explanation re: Gox.
As for acquiring from other exchanges, they take in both USD and BTC in fees. They all have enormous BTC stashes as a result.
As for acquiring from other exchanges, they take in both USD and BTC in fees. They all have enormous BTC stashes as a result.
But any part of that revenue that is left over from expenses will be taken out by the owners as profits.
So you were thinking of the individuals investing in SaveMtGOXco, rather than their companies?
Profits don't go straight to the owners. They are corporations, they go on the balance sheet.
I was also talking about the investors literally 'depositing' (I doubt they really deposited, but instead more likely were just given contracts with unlimited funds and told to write a check at the end) money on the exchanges and buying BTC on them as well, though. I think it's likely that happened.
Sina update:
For today there are reports from the central bank has issued a document media platforms suspended Bitcoin transaction message, close to the regulators said on Sina Finance, said the central bank issued a document indeed, but not halt bitcoins, but to strengthen supervision of Bitcoin.
http://live.sina.com.cn/zt/l/v/finance/globalnews1/8:35:52