All posts made by JayJuanGee in Bitcointalk's Wall Observer thread

Quote from: fonzie on February 18, 2014, 03:04:20 AM

@windjc

i read through all the technical fundamentals as you proposed and i came to the conclusion that this chart might be the future of Bitcoin.
It´s actually from the hidden page of Satoshis white paper written with magic ink, many have not seen it before.
You should take a look at it:

LOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOOL

Most importantly, Where are we currently at on that chart? the beginning, middle or end? Maybe we are still in the early stages of the awareness stage? Lots of people do NOT know what the fuck is bitcoin.

Quote from: aminorex on February 18, 2014, 01:48:02 AM

Quote from: kkaspar on February 18, 2014, 01:43:26 AM

There won't be a rise just because there is strong support at the bottom, there also has to be strong support for lift, but it aint there. Without lift the bottom will only weaken and weaken until it breaks.

Now this analysis I can deal with. In fact, you've described the reason why I have some fiat in reserve. There is a substantial likelihood of an impending final capitulation.

Regarding having Fiat in reserve, Are you saying that you have invested most of your liquid assets in BTC?

I know that there are some people who have put their life savings into bitcoin... but surely a risky strategy...

Personally, almost all of my liquid assets are in various forms of fiat.... save a relatively small percentage in BTC.

I am investing in BTC b/c I want to diversify some of my assets out of fiat (namely away from the dollar).

I am fairly bullish on BTC, but I only started investing in November 2013..., and I have been dollar cost averaging my BTC investment through the last 2.5 months attempting to buy more BTC during the dips and only investing a small percentage of my total investment portfolio into BTC - so even though my initial BTCs were bought at around $1,200, my average BTC buy price is currently at about $744.

Currently, I am holding... hoping to buy more BTC on Coinbase below $560.. if such a BTC price dip were to occur... and doing a tiny bit of trading on BTC-e (but I am NOT very good at timing daytrades. Therefore, I don't attempt too many big or risky trades - unless there seems to be some clear signal of the BTC price direction - which seems rare).

Nonetheless, my current prediction is that BTC is going to be in turmoil for the next couple of weeks waiting for more clear news from Gox - which Gox is likely to straggle along for another several months... and may be able to re-brand itself... possibly, like Silkroad 2 is attempting to do with its recent press release... I agree Gox seems to be a drag on the current bitcoin prices and causing uncertainty about the future of BTC... I do think that a transparent statement, such as the one provided by Silkroad 2, and a kind of outline of a forward plan.. that sounds reasonable, could help Gox to stay alive.

Yet, the Gox situation may cause developments for investors / customers to receive assurances that exchanges or similar enties are NOT going to run away with their bitcoins...

Quote from: fonzie on February 18, 2014, 03:21:47 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 18, 2014, 03:17:25 AM

Quote from: fonzie on February 18, 2014, 03:04:20 AM

@windjc

i read through all the technical fundamentals as you proposed and i came to the conclusion that this chart might be the future of Bitcoin.
It´s actually from the hidden page of Satoshis white paper written with magic ink, many have not seen it before.
You should take a look at it:

pic

LOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOOL

Most importantly, Where are we currently at on that chart? the beginning, middle or end? Maybe we are still in the early stages of the awareness stage? Lots of people do NOT know what the fuck is bitcoin.

Goldman sachs(coinbase) and second market are the instituional investors. 40% of all americans know bitcoin. PLus there are huge similarities with the actual chart, check 3d. so do the math, and put your buy orders below 200$ Cool

Can we invite the designer of the bubble graph into the forum? That would be awesome, so that everybody could ask him about his opinion.

No chart can predict exactly where BTC is going.. and really I doubt that we are going to reach $200 in the near future (though anything is possible, of course - and there could be some flash crashes... since the BTC market cap is still fairly small at less than 9 billion...

I do think $400s and $500s are possible in the next weeks... but you know we do NOT really know where we are at on the chart that you presented until we look back at in retrospect..

Quote from: aminorex on February 18, 2014, 03:26:23 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 18, 2014, 03:17:25 AM

Most importantly, Where are we currently at on that chart? the beginning, middle or end?

In capitulation, heading to despair. All of which will become just another part of the next take-off phase.

Quote

Maybe we are still in the early stages of the awareness stage? Lots of people do NOT know what the fuck is bitcoin.

The first great use-case for bitcoin, which will drive value for the next couple of years, is international remittances.
The mass of adopters for remittances consists of immigrants. I am in New York City about half of the time, and always
ask every taxi driver if they have ever heard of bitcoin. These people are from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ghana, Senegal, etc.
Never, not once, has a taxi driver known what a bitcoin was, or even how to spell it with confidence. (Although,
I suspect a few of them may one day send their children to Harvard with bitcoin bought since I met them.)

We are way, way short of take-off. We are in stealth mode.

I think that we largely agree.. that there is like going to be a take off in the future and it may be in stages.. and it may be partly based on remittances and also other reasons... including the instability of a lot of currencies outside of the dollar.. NOT that the dollar is stable... but relatively speaking it is (at the moment).

Quote from: keithers on February 18, 2014, 04:58:17 AM

I think we may be headed back towards some slow growth, bitcoin has withstood the latest barrage of bad news/bad press, and I think we will start seeing some slow appreciation again. I don't think it will be the meteoric rise we saw in Nov/Dec of last year, but it is a start...

By when are we gonna make a new all time high? Maybe by June-ish? The other problem is potentially more intense attacks from banks and governments when they really begin to see BTC as a thread... Many of those attacks would likely be behind the scenes... .. but there could be some direct attacks as well.. especially when BTC is being used to fund contrary forces...

Quote from: Mythul on February 18, 2014, 05:50:00 AM

There is so much manipulation on this forum. I don't get it why perma-bears even spend time here since they better just sell now at the never to be reached again peak and laugh at us when Bitcoin goes to $0.

Maybe they have been hired by banks or governments to sabotage crypto currencies or to interfere with our abilities to effectively communicate about such?

Quote from: p4n on February 18, 2014, 06:02:27 AM

Gox thing smells badly everyday... It seems they have neither money or BTC enough to pay their customers. So they manipulate their exchange 1s and 0s to keep low prices to make people think "CHEAP COINS!!!" and send money to the exchange, which will be used to pay the ones who want to leave that sinking boat. Ponzi scheme with GoxUSD and GoxBTC.

Hope they don't make anyone sink with them.

I agree with you that the more time that passes, the more fishy the whole situation smells; however, I do NOT know how you can come to so many conclusions about the Ponzi scheme accusation. It sounds as if you are just throwing out labels.. without really knowing many facts about how Gox may be dealing with this internally or about the internal financial status of Gox. There was a coindesk article earlier today about Gox.. did you see it?

I'm thinking about this one: http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-may-headed-bankruptcy/

Even though some people think that there are a lot of conspiracies to pull down Gox... I personally thought that the article made a lot of good points about the pattern of Gox's behavior.... .. Though of course none of this is conclusive and it is speculation, as well.

Quote from: windjc on February 18, 2014, 06:10:45 AM

Instead you just chirp about currency, deflation, mining costs, volatility - the same shit we've heard from countless others in the past, and surely countless others in the future.

Windjc:

I know that I am catching you in the middle of another conversation; however, I frequently am having concerns about the deflationary aspects of bitcoin. DONT get me wrong... I am bullish on bitcoin, but I remain quite concerned about its lack of expansion.... surely it is expanding at around 10-12% per year, and that will decrease. Probably o.k. to have btc for a store of value.. but questionable as a currency with such lack of expansion of the supply.

Personally, I recognize the near infinite divisibility but am more concerned about the ability for BTC to continue to adjust to the increased population, lost coins etc..

Surely, this may be a real long term problem, and NOT really as much of a problem in the short term, but NONETHELESS the problem concerns me.... b/c if there becomes a great demand, it could cause the value of BTC to increase way too much.. and way to exponentially...

Quote from: av123 on February 18, 2014, 06:19:59 AM

These are good points. So long as the bitcoin network itself isn't compromised, I believe the protocol has a bright future and the eco-system will continue to grow. Enabling an easier way to send third world remittances will be one major driver IMO.

I agree with you, and this seems likely to cause bitcoin to become a major threat to governments and various financial institutions that stand to lose a lot of money and control over various poor populations... and it remains my belief that both governments and financial institutions like to keep the little guy down.

Quote from: windjc on February 18, 2014, 06:24:48 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 18, 2014, 06:21:56 AM

Quote from: windjc on February 18, 2014, 06:10:45 AM

Instead you just chirp about currency, deflation, mining costs, volatility - the same shit we've heard from countless others in the past, and surely countless others in the future.

Windjc:

I know that I am catching you in the middle of another conversation; however, I frequently am having concerns about the deflationary aspects of bitcoin. DONT get me wrong... I am bullish on bitcoin, but I remain quite concerned about its lack of expansion.... surely it is expanding at around 10-12% per year, and that will decrease. Probably o.k. to have btc for a store of value.. but questionable as a currency with such lack of expansion of the supply.

Personally, I recognize the near infinite divisibility but am more concerned about the ability for BTC to continue to adjust to the increased population, lost coins etc..

Surely, this may be a real long term problem, and NOT really as much of a problem in the short term, but NONETHELESS the problem concerns me.... b/c if there becomes a great demand, it could cause the value of BTC to increase way too much.. and way to exponentially...

The technology world has lived in a state of price deflation for 20 years, yet Apple is the biggest company in the world.

Inflation doesn't work. Proven. I certainly do not see why we wouldn't give deflation a chance.

Don't get me wrong. Currently, I am NOT objecting to trying out BTC and to see how it plays out but currency deflation seems to be way too liberating to poor people in my current understanding of capitalism.

Accordingly, capitalism works by exploiting people and creating an incentive for people to work. For example, if any schmuck can get a bitcoin (or fraction of a bitcoin) when he is a baby (and then stashes it away), then he would never have to work a day in his life by the time he is 18 years old.

Maybe I am being too narrow minded to think that way, but compounding interest is a powerful thing and if BTC is guaranteed to go up every year by even as little as 10-15% (and those are conservative numbers based on the supply issue and I would think that the guaranteed price increase would be greater than 15% annually). BTC would change the whole dynamics of the world and incentives for labor......

Maybe there is a way to make this deflationary aspect of BTC work, but the whole deflationary concept puzzles me b/c it is a very different dynamic than the one that we are used to within the current scheme of things and incentive structures. Rich people are NOT going to want poor people to have guaranteed avenues to become rich, so the more ingrained bitcoin becomes, the more the rich are going to want to fight to keep poor people from getting the advantages of it... that is part of the problem of the deflationary aspect, in my current thinking.

Quote from: threecats on February 18, 2014, 06:38:21 AM

New NYT article:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/02/17/regulators-and-hackers-put-bitcoin-to-the-test/?hp

NO HATING ... but I always find it curious that people post links without any comment at all...... like did you read the article or NOT.....

Anyhow, CANT... you just give a few lines about what the article is about?

My quick perusal of the article seems to be that it is about the turmoils of the last week in bitcoin from a quasi-lay person's perspective... gives some negative news such as the exchange withdrawal issues and some positive news such as the expanding of some businesses with the use of BTC.. such as Overstock... ... and then to say BTC still alive in spite of negatives.... Did you want us to get anything else from the article?

Quote from: windjc on February 18, 2014, 06:48:53 AM

Look, I am not one that believes that bitcoin is going to become the premier or even "a" premier currency in the world. I do however believe that bitcoins first mover advantage is a massive advantage. Bitcoins power (just like gold) comes from peoples belief in its value first and foremost. That isn't going to change, its going to grow. Second, the applications being built on top of the protocol are going to more and more valuable. Just like html was to the development of the internet. We truly don't know where this technology will become. Probably something we haven't though of yet.

But even if bitcoin is a little bit of a lot of things - frictionless payment system, currency, store of value, remittance vehicle, collapsed state secondary currency (see NEO/BEE in Cyprus), trade payment system, trust and will platform, it doesn't matter. There are only 21 million of these coins. And there are 7 billion people. It doesn't take a lot for bitcoins price to be in the high 5 figures or 6 figure range. And when it gets there volatility will actually be a helluva lot less too.

I think that we largely agree with one another.... and my previous discussion point about the deflationary aspect remains a concern of mine... but I am NOT of the belief that it is fatal to bitcoin.. .at least NOT in the early days... And the dynamic of bitcoin may be quite interesting in 20 years... to see if it holds any niche at that time.

Nonetheless, I agree with you about the exponential potential of bitcoin. Frequently, I like to use the example of gold having a 6.5 trillion dollar market cap, and BTC has less than a 10 billion dollar market cap. The dollar has something like 15 trillion dollar market cap... Anyhow, BTC could take some of that functionality and value... even less than 1% of the combination of the two, would leave bitcoin with a 200 billion dollar market cap - which is more than 20 times its current market cap. And, there are a lot of other potential uses for bitcoin to take value from other markets, including remittances and the currencies of other countries.... and we could get to those points fairly quickly.... less than 2 years...

Quote from: kkaspar on February 18, 2014, 06:56:46 AM

Yeah, this "Let's just give everyone money and everyone can be rich!" doesn't work in real life. Money doesn't always equal wealth, you know..

Actually it is production that creates wealth and production is stimulated by consumption.
When world currency would be deflationary then consumption will slow because everyone will be motivated to hold onto their money, not to use it on consumption. That in turn means that production will slow down and that actually means less wealth to everyone.

Now, if the globe would be in one peaceful society, then maybe it could fly. Less consumption would mean less destroying our natural enviroment and all. But because evolution dictates the survival of the fittest, this laziness propagating economic way won't work. People who work more and better will always rule over those who just want to sit on their ass.

KKaspar:

I do NOT necessarily disagree with you, but to me it sounds as if your post is filled with a lot of hate and resentment for poor people.

I was merely trying to describe a dynamic that exists with deflationary currency, and you and I seem to have some agreement about a potential incentive that could be created in which people may NOT have the incentive to work. We agree on that, but I CANNOT bring myself to agree with some of the other seemingly hateful and assumption aspects of your post.... that seems to assume that rich people are entitled to more than poor people... and a bunch of the other assumptions that goes along with those kinds of striving to maintain the status quo and the current wealth distribution.

You also seem to be asserting some kind of assumption about trickle down economics actually working, which I CANNOT bring myself to agree with those kinds of assumptions, either.

Anyhow, if bitcoin is going to be successful, you and I agree that it would change social dynamics. Accordingly, you seem to assert that it is NOT in line with human nature, and I would assert that some social, economic and political institutions may need to adapt to these new dynamics to find a way to work.... especially, if governments and companies are NOT able to get rid of bitcoin, then they will have to work on ways to adapt... which may create growing pains for a lot of us... NO matter what our previous conceptions of the ways of the world and human nature and politics, productivity and wealth distribution.

Quote from: schizoid on February 18, 2014, 07:07:38 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 18, 2014, 06:40:44 AM

Maybe I am being too narrow minded to think that way, but compounding interest is a powerful thing and if BTC is guaranteed to go up every year by even as little as 10-15% (and those are conservative numbers based on the supply issue and I would think that the guaranteed price increase would be greater than 15% annually). BTC would change the whole dynamics of the world and incentives for labor......

Once bitcoin matures the deflation rate should match the growth rate of the economy, around 3-4%. If people stop working the economy will slow and the deflation rate will be less. It's a self limiting problem.

sorry Schizoid, but your comment seems like too much pie in the sky for me to relate... Surely, both you and I are speculating a bit about the future and maybe it is so far into the future that it does NOT matter too much.. but YOU know that the BTC protocol already sets the parameters for the expansion of the BTC supply up until 21 million until 2140... so until 2140, the amount of expansion will be decreasing... so now it is about 12% then in 2017, it will be 6% then in 2021 it will be 3% then in 2025 it will be 1.5%, then in 2029 it will be .75%... all the way reducing in half every four years until we get to 2140.... Even by the time we are in 2029, the rate is less than 1%.

Your other point about needing less expansion will probably only work if there is less population.. Do you really think that we are going to be forced to develop a system of reduced consumption and localism.. Maybe that will happen, but that is surely speculation, at this point... My earlier point is that I am thinking that probably it would have been better to have bitcoin to have greater and consistent expansion built into the currency.. maybe 3% a year or something like that.. and then just to have that forever and ever.... b/c people are going to lose their bitcoins and population expansion.. but there are also unknowns.. as well... .

Quote from: MikeH on February 18, 2014, 07:33:30 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 18, 2014, 06:40:44 AM

Accordingly, capitalism works by exploiting people and creating an incentive for people to work. For example, if any schmuck can get a bitcoin (or fraction of a bitcoin) when he is a baby (and then stashes it away), then he would never have to work a day in his life by the time he is 18 years old.

Maybe I am being too narrow minded to think that way, but compounding interest is a powerful thing and if BTC is guaranteed to go up every year by even as little as 10-15% (and those are conservative numbers based on the supply issue and I would think that the guaranteed price increase would be greater than 15% annually). BTC would change the whole dynamics of the world and incentives for labor......

why do you think it's deflationary? the price is currently rising with adoption and confidence and by the time bitcoins stop being created we should be at peak adoption, there may be a bit of deflation through coin loss but by then we may also see population decrease if 3rd world countries are brought up to 1st world level where birth rates have fallen below the replacement rate.

I may be using the wrong term... but deflationary, means exactly that the currency buys more with the passage of time compared with goods and services. So let's say a kid is born in 2020 and his parents invest 1 bitcoin into a stored wallet. At that point, the bitcoin is equal to the equivalence of $10,000 in today's dollars. Even if the value of the bitcoin goes up by 15% per year (which I believe is fairly modest), then in 20 years that bitcoin would be worth about $200,000 and in 30 years, $900K.

Quote from: MikeH on February 18, 2014, 07:33:30 AM

oh and why focus on it as a currency anyway, if used in parallel to other currencies as a payment method the price and volatility don't really matter.

I am NOT concerned about volatility.... I am just making a point about the issue of the deflationary aspect of the asset.. whether it is a currency or a commodity or just a storage of value.

Quote from: schizoid on February 18, 2014, 07:35:51 AM

I was actually assuming an expansion rate of 0%. If the BTC supply is fixed, its value will be determined by the size of the economy. If the economy grows (more goods and services per BTC), BTC will rise. If the economy shrinks (fewer goods and services per BTC), BTC will fall.

The rapid rise we've seen so far has been due to the rapid growth of the bitcoin economy, but that won't go on forever.

I think part of my point is that if BTC is so valuable as compared with other asset classes, then it holds its value better than other asset classes, then people will flock to BTC rather than currencies ... and then there is a snowball effect where the BTC is holding its value too well and more and more people are flocking to it b/c it is holding its value so well.

Quote from: kkaspar on February 18, 2014, 07:53:49 AM

I don't have hatred against poor people. I also believe that one can be better off without wealth but with a healthy spirit.
But I do dis-like poor people who blame their situation on others. People who say that rich people are to blame that they didn't decide to get good grades, that they didn't decide to go to college, that they didn't make the right career choices etc.

surely I also believe in personal responsibility.. but there are also social systems that screw certain people... NOT everyone has an equal chance, contrary to the lore.

Quote from: kkaspar on February 18, 2014, 07:53:49 AM

Bitcoin wouldn't change social dynamics, it would only make everyone poorer, both the rich and the poor. The ratio will be the same and there will still be rich people who have gotten rich by either work or by exploitation of others. Trade will just be more ineffective and people would be motivated to sit on their ass more. Not just blue-collared workers, but also the CEOs and managers.

NO HATING>>>>>> but You seem to be talking out of your ass to some extent about a prediction that everyone will be poorer.... You are trying to extrapolate some simple dynamics and paint a simple picture.... I just DONT buy it, but it does NOT seem to be worth arguing about.

Quote from: kkaspar on February 18, 2014, 07:53:49 AM

I think that an country could actually adopt bitcoin if it doesn't care about it's economic strength. There are also countries like that. Not a lot tho..
It would be absurd that major powers couldn't overcome bitcoin though. Take a team of good 100 python coders and give them a year and there would be a coin that would surpass bitcoin in every quality aspect. Right now only students and hobbyists are coding bitcoin source based altcoins, because the big boys are still planning their entrance strategy.

You are leaving a lot of holes in your scenario... but there is some truth to the fact that the big guns may have a lot of money to throw against bitcoin and to develop competition... so that will be interesting to see how that plays out... and how many people die because of this battle.

Your description of their planning their entrance strategy is a bit off base, though... b/c probably they are just a bit overwhelmed and confused and do NOT really know what to do about BTC.

Quote from: MikeH on February 18, 2014, 10:33:24 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 18, 2014, 08:30:20 AM

I may be using the wrong term... but deflationary, means exactly that the currency buys more with the passage of time compared with goods and services. So let's say a kid is born in 2020 and his parents invest 1 bitcoin into a stored wallet. At that point, the bitcoin is equal to the equivalence of $10,000 in today's dollars. Even if the value of the bitcoin goes up by 15% per year (which I believe is fairly modest), then in 20 years that bitcoin would be worth about $200,000 and in 30 years, $900K.

yea that's what I was referring to as well but the total number of bitcoin users will stabilise at some point and so will the price, if deflationary at all at that point it will be a very low % which won't be incentive enough to hold as an investment.

Certainly the rate of increase will NOT be flat... and You may be correct that potentially in the long term the rate would be lower than something like 5%...

Quote from: adamstgBit on February 18, 2014, 03:59:13 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on February 18, 2014, 03:55:37 PM

Still massive dumps of Goxcoins, seems like people think they are worthless after all

as the poll indicates, clearly poeple have very little confidence they will resume withdrawals as promised.

are poeple trading gox on superior information or emotion... that is the question.

There is always profit to be made during volatility, whether the price is 600 or 200..... surely making money GOX, at the moment, will NOT amount to a hill of beans, if they do NOT resume withdrawals.

Quote from: KeyserSoze on February 18, 2014, 05:36:14 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 18, 2014, 03:33:41 PM

Do you know what fees they will charge?

Likely outrageous like other Bitcoin ATMs. I imagine it'll stay this way (though to a lesser extent once the machines are ubiquitous) because the user is paying for convenience, just like the $2-$5 fee at a cash ATM.

Don't confuse Bitcoin's "nearly free" nature with the businesses surrounding it. A business wouldn't stay in business if it didn't make money. The market will decide if it wants Bitcoin ATMs enough to pay the fee.

If Canada is an example then the market appears to be OK with it. Last I read a coffee shop ("Waves" I think) ATM could barely keep stocked with Bitcoin even though the fee was high.

I get your point about demand being high.. despite a high fee; however, your description is a bit off, here. There is NO reason to stock Bitcoin b/c it is NOT physical. Maybe they ran out of stock of something else? Or limitations on transactions?

Quote from: runam0k on February 18, 2014, 05:37:42 PM

Is it possible to transfer USD between MtGox users?

It might be worth buying some MtGox USD (for real world BTC), converting to MtGox BTC and if all goes well and MtGox hasn't lost all the BTC, withdrawing the BTC at a later date.

Anyone brave enough?

It does NOT make any sense to convert real BTC for Mt. Gox BTC. But it could make sense to put real dollars into Mt. Gox to buy Mt. Gox BTC on the bet that Mt. Gox BTC will be converted to real BTC at a future date.

Quote from: Arcas on February 18, 2014, 05:40:15 PM

Quote from: runam0k on February 18, 2014, 05:37:42 PM

Is it possible to transfer USD between MtGox users?

It might be worth buying some MtGox USD (for real world BTC), converting to MtGox BTC and if all goes well and MtGox hasn't lost all the BTC, withdrawing the BTC at a later date.

Anyone brave enough?

Some people have been trying to buy Gox-bucks on the forum in the past few days. I'm not sure how they facilitate the trade, because I've never used MtGox, but some people like to live dangerously.

It seems that you would get Mt. Gox bux by giving real bux for them, and then hoping that some day your Mt Gox bux will materialize into real bux.... thus, currently, you would probably get at least twice as many Mt. Gox speculative bux for giving the real buck and the bet that Mt Gox bux will materialize into real bux.

Quote from: KeyserSoze on February 18, 2014, 06:08:25 PM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on February 18, 2014, 05:54:47 PM

the ones in Canada seemingly abide by the required laws as far as I have read.

I just saw that apparently Canadian banks have taken a turn for the worse...
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1y7ln2/cointradernet_canadas_last_bitcoinfriendly_bank/

Seems like we are going to continue to see these kinds of regulation pressures from governments that are forcing banks to shut off these kinds of profitable services. Though sometimes the banks are likely NOT very excited about Bitcoin - anyhow, and they probably feel as if they can make more money by sticking with fiat.....

Quote from: magicmexican on February 18, 2014, 06:25:09 PM

What if Gox is actually broke and all that selling is just them selling imaginary coins that they dont have to get the last bit of money they can get?

That's the 100 thousand dollar question..... Personally, I suspect that they were engaging in a form of fractional reserve... like is suggested in yesterday's coindesk article: http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-may-headed-bankruptcy/

Accordingly, it is NOT an all or nothing proposition in my thinking.. they have some of the coins... but they are trying to figure out a way to make up for the difference in what they have and what they would have to pay out in the even that there were a run on the bank.... I also believe that currently they are (and likely had been in the past as well) probably engaging in some kinds of insider shenanigans to attempt to make up for the coin balance differences through arbitrage....

Quote from: fonzie on February 18, 2014, 06:44:33 PM

Quote from: surfer43 on February 18, 2014, 06:42:28 PM

What do you think? Is Mt. Gox having "Supplier consolidation and failures"? Wink

It seems to be spot on. Looks like we have much room downards left...

We are in the start up companies early stage... so lots of room for upward movement still.

Quote from: manfred on February 18, 2014, 11:08:41 PM

Now here is an interesting one. Blue line Dow Jones Index from 1928-1930, red one is now. Will it follow ?

I doubt that today is going to follow...... we are going to have approximately one more year worth of bullish stock market performance... Certainly, i am NOT an expert... just guessing... b/c history does NOT repeat itself that exactly.... and we have different things going on these days in terms politics, world involvement and even bitcoin, for example... he hehheehehe

Quote from: windjc on February 20, 2014, 04:35:24 AM

Quote from: Yololintian on February 20, 2014, 04:04:08 AM

Quote from: windjc on February 20, 2014, 03:07:49 AM

Quote from: creekbore on February 20, 2014, 03:03:44 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 20, 2014, 02:53:47 AM

Quote from: windjc on February 20, 2014, 02:50:43 AM

Thank goodness he and his irrelevant and annoyingly long posts are gone.

I did not say that. Wink

Well, that's good to hear.

However, Windy, I truly believe kindness, trust and patience are the only way to change someone's behaviour, even their attitudes or beliefs.

But all you seem to do here is spread hate and ill-feeling -- it's very sad that a (supposedly) 40 year old (supposed) millionaire feels compelled to act like that towards strangers whose only 'sin' is to disagree with you.

Look there are intelligent posters, there are trolls and then there is Jorge, who is obsessive compulsive about when Chinese people sleep and just pontificates on this point for thousands of words a day. He hasn't added Ny value to the forum. He just uses this forum for his own amusement and is yet another clog in the forum wheel that is slowly driving people away. Just go read Ristos thread. So many feel the way I do. The joy here is gone.

Jorge,
Please ignore the trolls/idiots and keep posting your opinions/predictions about bitcoin. I for one appreciate the different perspective you have as compared to most people on this forum. Ignore the trolls and keep giving us insight we would not otherwise be exposed to. Anyone that thinks bitcoin has serious flaws will be derailed on a forum like this, but the keenest people will consider the criticism and accordingly be a little bit more cautious.

Yes, I am troll because I actually believe in the viability of the bitcoin technology. And because I don't consider Jorgi's continual price estimations any sort of real TA. They just seem to state the obvious. Here's the current price and we will probably stay within $20 north or south of that. And here are more stats about when Chinese people sleep.

I came to this forum for real substance and real charts and real TA and real speculation. We used to have a lot of that around here. So that makes me a troll now. Since I don't think bitcoin has "serious flaws" and even though I recognize that there are no guarantees on its adoption and growth I am still a troll. By today's forum standards.

Your comment is ridiculous. If you feel that there is NOT very much valuable information here, then why DONT you help in that direction of providing valuable information and encouraging others to provide valuable information... rather than doing the opposite?

By the way... it seems that we are all just waiting for GOX....... ... surely they are going to stall one more week, no? or maybe allow withdrawals up to 10BTC per week..... I think stalling may work better for them to continue to engage in arbitrage to make up for whatever short-fallings they have..... but that is just the conspiracy side of me speculating.

Quote from: OldGeek on February 21, 2014, 05:52:06 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on February 21, 2014, 05:41:38 AM

So Gox is still leading the price. Can someone explain this to me. I realize ~~most~~ some traders are pretty stupid, but THIS stupid.

Fixed.

The bots, that are programmed by humans, reacted to the price at MtSux within minutes. Why they are set to act when gox does is beyond me.

Yes, there is quite a bit of speculating about what has been going on inside of Gox.... surely, the news bulletin lacked many specifics, and it seemed to have been written that way on purpose in order to facilitate panic.

Then Gox have there bots skimming or whatever it is that they are doing, and people are going to go along with it to sell, sell, sell.... but they do NOT know exactly when to buy, and the bots have the advantage b/c they can pump in a bunch of resources in order to change the direction of the prices from sell, sell , sell to buy, buy, buy...

Regular people are genuinely out gunned... and just guessing at best to try to predict a reasonable turning point.

EDIT: It seems also that a lot of us are hoping for the day that BTC has a large enough market cap in order NOT to be manipulated... HOWEVER, that day is probably quite far into the future... Probably, BTC needs to move to a larger market cap of maybe 100 Billion... but even in the scheme of things, 100 Billion remains a pretty small market cap when it comes to the dynamics of manipulation of markets

Quote from: seleme on February 21, 2014, 06:02:19 AM

Regular people are always left to guess the price, it's whales who are controlling it all the time. That's why I don't like trading BTC vs USD unless I have to like yesterday. I'm small fish there and left to mercy of big guys.

Whales and Bots.... but YOU may be correct that Whales and bots are nearly the same thing.

Quote from: TERA on February 23, 2014, 03:15:14 AM

If this gox rally continues, there may be a possible extension of the bull trap to ~660, like so:

This is exactly what I was talking about last night which I was worried about not being there. With it being there, it would be complete with the patterns of previous years.

I do NOT see how you are arriving at that prediction. I do anticipate that GOX is keeping us down... however, we cannot really know any specifics b/c a lot of this is in the minds of the botwhales and how they are programmed to manipulate... we are NOT exactly in a free market.. especially, when we are suffering from such a low marketcap and accordingly, whales do NOT need to be very big in order to be able to manipulate the market... ... surely, they are NOT going to be able to prevent the ultimate upward trend.. unless they can destroy bitcoin... somehow.. but we have too much continued adoption and too much govt. tolerance.. at this point, the trend is going to be upward as soon as there are some positive signs concerning the resolution of the GOX situation.

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on February 23, 2014, 03:15:53 AM

My prediction that BSP would be back under 600 by 2pm is not going so well. That's ok I am patient I still think there is nothing behind this rally.

What is BSP?

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 23, 2014, 03:41:00 AM

That surprise buy on stamp out of nowhere prolly came from Coinbase. The buy and sell spread @ CB is much greater now.

This buy and sell spread varies, and I attempted to clarify this with them.... they were somewhat evasive, but claimed that their business model did NOT involve arbitrage (and or skimming) that I had accused them of..... I am NOT sure if I quite buy their story, but I was happy to receive an explanation directly to my inquiry.

Quote from: MikeH on February 23, 2014, 04:34:42 AM

so did any punters get their money into Gox? I would have sent a few $ if it weren't for the 2 week delay last time, I expect it to take longer at the moment.

Yeah, right!!! .. Times have changed.... you would be lucky if the delay is ONLY two weeks. So, a person may gamble and put money into GOX, and then purchase GOX BTC for anywhere between $91 and $300.... and thereafter, HOPE... that s/he gets the money out... or is able to transfer the BTC to some personal wallet.

Quote from: MikeH on February 23, 2014, 04:41:38 AM

Quote from: seleme on February 23, 2014, 02:05:33 AM

Please Bitcoin, explode to $5000, I want to move to Turkey and buy something like this:

http://www.tuerkei-immo.org/Immobilie-in-Alanya-Details32241.htm#

yea I want out of Australia too - I just don't know of any truly independent and non-corrupt place to go to though.

There are lots of places to live, besides the Anglosphere .. and if you are worried about acquiring or bringing too much property with you, then leave your assets off-shore and stay mobile.. rent rather than own... and live in a place that has a lower cost of living. .. lots of them.... 190 countries... and maybe more than half could find some suitable arrangement.

Quote from: solex on February 23, 2014, 04:56:10 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 23, 2014, 04:26:26 AM

Let's see whether I got it right: someone noticed that MtGOX made a tiny transaction, which actually was like several others that they had been doing all along since the lock-in; a transaction which had nothing to do with withdrawals, and moreover was rejected by the network because it contained mined bitcoin that was too fresh -- a bug that MtGOX's software was known to have, and which apparently has not been fixed yet. That is why the market suddenly got excited and optimistic, and the price jumped up by 10% in a few hours . Correct?

What you are missing is the bigger picture inferred by this testing.

a) Markets don't like uncertainty, don't like seeing exchanges go under because what can happen to one can happen to another. Gox testing reduces uncertainty.
b) Gox testing indicates that they are trying to fix things, not escape with people's money.
c) Gox testing indicates that they might finish said testing and actually resume limited or full service.

The individual price ticks are meaningless, however, collectively, they are meaningful and sentiment might be changing.

Initially, I am thinking what the fuck is "Gox testing" and I suppose that there is some kind of plan in which Gox is supposedly moving forward beyond their Thursday communication - b/c that Thursday communication truly did NOT inspire confidence and inspired the opposite and seemed to have been done on purpose in order that manipulation of the markets could be done. What truly serious company would issue such NONSENSE... and expect to be taken serious. The Thursday communication was such a feeling of "fuck you"... that will likely linger.... NOW, you are referring to "Gox testing" which seems to imply that there is some kind of serious plan to move forward and to inspire confidence. When was this announced?

Quote from: MikeH on February 23, 2014, 05:02:32 AM

Quote from: MatTheCat on February 23, 2014, 04:44:26 AM

U clearly have no idea how good you guys have it there compared to just about everywhere else.

I know it's much worse in the US right now but it seems we've been taken over as well, our countries assets are being liquidated, politicians are corrupt, judges corrupt - they're talking about restricting peoples right to protest (with 2 years jail if you disobey a move on notice), one guy who lives in my city just finished a 3 year jail term for little more than calling Jews racist a youtube video (Brendon O'Connell), we've agreed to bail ins, the news like in the US is just freaking infotainment, no real news.. Yes when you look at the usual options, Australia may be better than most - but I want to be where reality and perception are the same, it may have to be a small freaking island community or something, I don't care, I'm just tired of the lies and corruption.

There is NO one place that is going to bring ALL. What's your budget? What's your activities? What's your income? Some people say to earn enough in the 1st world to be able to thereafter retire in a place that is less expense so that your earnings will go further.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 23, 2014, 05:04:56 AM

Quote from: TERA on February 23, 2014, 04:51:22 AM

Volume, what volume? 24 hour stamp volme: 20K... clearly a trap. There are all kinds of resistances in the 600s based on longer charts. Do you really thing we're ready to break through them all just because gox and on this low volume?

LOL. Wouldn't want those sheep who bought at $585 to get slaughtered, right? Go play in your giant triangle. No bull trap frightens you. Bull trap frightens you. Making money frightens you because you might lose it. Were you the hall monitor in middle school?

I am anticipating that we are going to linger between $580 and $620... for a while, then maybe we will dip down to $520... and then depending on GOX news and resolution... we may go UP or DOWN from there... but ultimately, we are going UP with GOX or without GOX... but if GOX screws this around a lot, we may linger in the $300 and $400s for a month or two before getting back into the $1,000 price ranges and above... ... where we are likely to go to $2k at some point during 2014

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 23, 2014, 05:16:33 AM

Quote from: solex on February 23, 2014, 04:56:10 AM

What you are missing is the bigger picture inferred by this testing.
a) Markets don't like uncertainty, don't like seeing exchanges go under because what can happen to one can happen to another. Gox testing reduces uncertainty.
b) Gox testing indicates that they are trying to fix things, not escape with people's money.
c) Gox testing indicates that they might finish said testing and actually resume limited or full service.
The individual price ticks are meaningless, however, collectively, they are meaningful and sentiment might be changing.

Er.... from the comments in that reddit thread, I understood that the transaction attempted by MtGOX was not a test after all, just one of many small transactions that they have been doing since the lock-in. Did I understand wrong?

Perhaps the news "MtGOX is testing!" spread further and farther than the "Oops, soory"?

of course MT Gox gotta be testing and making some efforts to make an appearance of trying to correct their situation

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on February 23, 2014, 05:42:48 AM

I once worked out that it would cost US$750,000 for one tank of fuel for Greg Norman's yacht.

That sounds impossible.

Quote from: solex on February 23, 2014, 06:45:19 AM

MT Gox's green address used internally for customer BTC withdrawals is active for the first time in 2 weeks!

https://blockchain.info/address/1LNWw6yCxkUmkhArb2Nf2MPw6vG7u5WG7q

5 million bitcoins have gone through this address in the last 3 years, so it is very significant.

I agree. That seems like significant news. Accordingly, maybe we are going to receive another announcement? By when though on Sunday? Monday? or sometime thereafter?

I would think that Mr. Gox would want to announce something, rather than keeping us in the dark, like their last communication of Thursday seemed purposeful to do.

Quote from: RicePicker on February 23, 2014, 06:55:22 AM

Nice little dump on stamp.

What is little? 3K BTC?

Quote from: ShroomsKit on February 23, 2014, 06:58:54 AM

Quote from: RicePicker on February 23, 2014, 06:55:22 AM

Nice little dump on stamp.

I was watching that. Seeing all these sell orders appear in seconds can i assume it's mainly bots when that happens?

For example, if I put my sell order at $2, and I am selling 3 or 4K in BTC, then there will be a rapid decline to fill all the orders.. maybe down from $620 to $500, or something like that..., no?

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on February 23, 2014, 07:03:21 AM

Tinfoil hat time.

Let's assume for the moment that Gox has been completely manipulated since June (when USD withdrawals were stopped).

Did Gox lead the rally to $1000? Was all price growth above $266 driven by people just trying to get their $ out of Gox? Is the current price of $613 just a sham relic of inability to withdraw fiat from Gox?

Even if you assume that Gox was completely manipulated, part of the reason for the October, NOvember and December rallies was due to the Chinese and the lack of confidence in the dollar.

Chinese came into BTC and pushed the prices upward... NO?

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on February 23, 2014, 07:15:38 AM

BSP is Bitstamp
BFX is Bitfinex
Gox is Gox
BTCE gets 4 letters because it is special.

Thank you for the basic lesson...

Quote from: isov on February 23, 2014, 08:33:28 AM

Quote from: souspeed on February 23, 2014, 08:14:16 AM

I can see some smoke behind the hill, and when I put my ear to the track I swear I can hear a faint .......kedang........kedang.......

What is that sound?

Is it a wildfire? is it a construction site? A bird? A plane? NO it's the btc train to da mooooon:DDD But yeah, I damn sure hope this is going to be the long waited trend reversal already. May the force be with us on our quest.

The trend upward is NOT going to come until this Gox thing is resolved one way or another... Ultimately , we are going upward... but Gox may drag on us for a while.. before we can truly go upward.

Quote from: MAbtc on February 23, 2014, 08:38:14 AM

Quote from: OldGeek on February 23, 2014, 07:59:41 AM

Which reminds me, MABtc, you haven't posted any of your good TA lately. Got some to share?

I posted this a couple days ago, still looking for bearish signals. We hit my first target and corrected, now re-testing the first down trend line. I expect resistance at $640-650, and am looking for a reversal there. However, can't be sure that we won't see a longer break from the down trend than that -- a trip into the $700s is possible. But as Gox rises, the correlation weakens... I don't think we'll see a sustainable rise from here. And I definitely don't think the bear market is over.

Quote from: MAbtc on February 21, 2014, 10:47:32 PM

Quote from: kireinaha on February 21, 2014, 09:19:14 PM

agreed, two months is too wide a range, we're in a major period of price discovery at the moment, and I expect we'll find capitulation within the next week. Two months is pretty much guaranteed.

A week? That's pretty optimistic even for a bear.

I think we still may see some bounce from oversold conditions. This still on target for now:

But TA takes a back seat to repeated Goxxing. We'll see what happens upon another update re: withdrawals and how closely Stamp follows...

I agree with you that we are going to be bearish for a while.. but once there is any clear tendency towards clearing up the GOX matter, then BTC is going to go to the moon... double in value within a short period of time... there is a lot of pent up demand for BTC ... just waiting for a clear signal... and wanting anything to be good news and willing to let GOX go and still be good news... b/c btc clarity...

Quote from: KaTXi on February 23, 2014, 10:09:22 AM

I don't get why the rest of the markets (Non-Gox) go up if there is really a remote possibility of Gox enabling withdrawals, Can you imagine the amount of bots that are ready to transfer everything from Gox to BTC-e, Stamp, etc and close the arbitrage gap? The bigger the gap is the bigger the benefit (and the crash in the rest of the markets).
IMHO you should be in fiat on the rest of the markets and wait to buy when the arbitrage starts...

I am thinking that what is going to happen is that Gox will announce some kind of limited withdrawing system (high enough to inspire confidence, but low enough to prevent GOX whales, if such exist, from engaging in massive dumps) ... maybe the withdrawal limit would be up to 10-20BTC per week or something like that, and all of the BTC markets will go up upon the news... then when Gox BTC holders begin to dump their BTC, those dumps will NOT create enough of a negative effect to offset the positive news b/c the withdrawal limit is sufficiently low at Gox.

Quote from: schizoid on February 23, 2014, 12:52:12 PM

Ok, I found the thread, and I stopped reading at #7, after kicking myself for not stopping at #1.

Then you resumed reading this thread at page 5006... Your description makes almost NO sense, unless just by coincidence.... but then again, coincidentally, you are likely NOT going to see this post which is my response (on page 5011) to your post on page 5006.. since you claim NOT to be reading this thread.

Quote from: Rampion on February 23, 2014, 12:53:51 PM

Gox is making a huge amount of fees during the manic trading that has been going on since the BTC withdrawal issue.

Especially in BTC. Karpeles is smiling.

Pigs are being slaughtered very hard this time. GoxBTC at $100ish was a HUGE deal. I really cannot understand those who sold near double digits.

I thought that GOX was NOT charging fees during the withdrawal freeze period?

Quote from: jonoiv on February 23, 2014, 12:59:02 PM

Quote from: TERA on February 23, 2014, 12:30:47 PM

Quote from: schizoid on February 23, 2014, 12:27:00 PM

The only reason

Please see my thread "problems besides mtgox" to learn about the 20 other things going on besides mtgox.

read it and agree with most of it. Bitcoins not finished, but people paying + $600, are just clinging on to their dream in my opinion..

I might come back when BTC is back around $100. feel very sorry for those that brought and held at + $900

regulation issues
legal issues
technical issues
community trust issues

where would serious new investment come from under these conditions?

You appear to have a very incomplete picture of BTC and the network effect..... Ultimately there is quite a variety of investments into BTC, and they are NOT just speculators... and ultimately, if BTC were to take on just a fraction of the work of gold which has a 6.5 trillion dollar market cap, or a fraction of the dollar which has about a 15 trillion dollar market cap, BTC's value is going to skyrocket.... all the items you listed as barriers are NOT sufficient to undermine the value of BTC and the potential for it to take over some of the functions of gold, the dollar or other assets.

Quote from: Yololintian on February 23, 2014, 12:59:35 PM

You all seem to forget that its very likely 90% of the coins were sold by one person.

That is crazy talk!!!! Who is this supposed one person that "very likely" sold 90% of the BTC?

Quote from: windjc on February 23, 2014, 01:01:46 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on February 23, 2014, 12:59:02 PM

Quote from: TERA on February 23, 2014, 12:30:47 PM

Quote from: schizoid on February 23, 2014, 12:27:00 PM

The only reason

Please see my thread "problems besides mtgox" to learn about the 20 other things going on besides mtgox.

read it and agree with most of it. Bitcoins not finished, but people paying + $600, are just clinging on to their dream in my opinion..

I might come back when BTC is back around $100. feel very sorry for those that brought and held at + $900

regulation issues
legal issues
technical issues
community trust issues

where would serious new investment come from under these conditions?

Lol. There's enough fiat sitting in exchanges today to take the price to >$1500.

Really. Some of you simply astound me.

WindJC: I agree with your overall suggestion that currently BTC is undervalued - however, the mere fact that there is a lot of cash on reserve in the exchanges does NOT necessarily translate to that fiat raising the BTC price... .and that is for a couple of reasons....

first, there is always going to be a certain percentage of fiat on the reserves in the exchanges (maybe 10% or more).. maybe currently, fiat is at an all time high level on the exchanges.. and that would be another story to compare percentage of fiat now as compared to the average...

second, some of that fiat may be destined to be removed.. but just has NOT been removed yet. .. that may be a small percentage.. but it maybe that some waiting to remove is going on...

Quote from: dreamspark on February 24, 2014, 09:40:12 AM

Well just woken up and as per usual missed a lot of the action and chance to make some easy money.

Great to see we're doing some wall observing!

Predictions for the day then?

Mine: No gox announcement, price to fall back to around $100 in gox and stamp to follow to about $550

I don't think them clearing up their twitter of bot automated responses is a bad thing. If they deleted their twitter then maybe but just getting rid of their tweets is just a chance to spread more FUD for the manipulators

It seems that if we are NOT getting any additional news from GOX, then likely we will go to a little below $100 on Gox and in the lower $500s on Stamp... maybe $510-ish....

Quote from: creekbore on February 24, 2014, 11:30:59 PM

Bonjour,
I've flicked through the last 20 pages to see if I missed anything -- but apart from the fact Mat is from Scotland (which explains everything) -- I can't find any news.

Apart from the market moving down, what news from Bitcoinland?

Yeah right!!!! That's quite the summary... that is way too summary...

Quote from: JCviggen on February 25, 2014, 09:13:39 AM

Meanwile bitcoinbuilder has gone tits up, darnit...

YEAH>>>>> Bitcoinbuilder seems to be totally dependent on GOX in order to operate, NO? WERE BitcoinBuilder customers able to actually liquidate some of their Gox coins and to get real BTC from Bitcoinbuilder?

Quote from: wrostek on February 25, 2014, 09:18:25 AM

I bet its the Winklevi that just bought out Gox!

That would inspire confidence, no?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 25, 2014, 04:48:55 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 25, 2014, 02:48:27 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 25, 2014, 02:36:18 PM

BitcoinRain was a Brazilian "bitcoin investment fund" that operated from Oct/2011 to Apr/2013. It took the investor's BTC and promised a minimum 9% monthly return in BTC to them.

Any fund that promises those kinds of returns is going to be a scam. That's a no-brainer. Nobody who makes real returns like that needs new investors.

Obviously so. But what about an investment that promises a 10,000% return in 3 years?

What's the starting point for that 10,000% return? What was the return between October 2011 and April 2013? How about 2014? Are we still going up?

Quote from: seleme on February 25, 2014, 05:06:06 PM

Quote from: Vigil on February 25, 2014, 05:03:39 PM

Quote from: seleme on February 25, 2014, 04:59:53 PM

Bring regulation tomorrow as far as I'm concerned. I'll never have problems sleeping being full in bitcoins then as that means to the moon ladies and gentleman.

Those who thought we're going to be left free forever to make millions without being regulated live in cuckooland.

Depends on where you live. Bitcoin and its exchanges/services won't be regulated everywhere.

I don't live in USA but USA is all that matters for Bitcoin to prosper. So, US regulation is coming and I am very happy for it.

Surely bitcoin will take different and varying paths depending upon the USA govt regulations.... Yet, even if the US govt were against bitcoin, bitcoin could still prosper if there are other governments or people around the world who find value in the bitcoin network. Nonetheless, I believe that I agree that some regulation may be helpful... especially when it may come to the potential of the stealing of money of customers, which may have happened with the Mt. Gox situation.

Quote from: ChrisML on February 26, 2014, 10:01:58 AM

"How early adopters feel right now after the price went from $400 to $600 in a matter of hours"

I sold some at $525 - thinking the price would go back into the upper $400s before going up.... mostly based on the lack of an announcement from GOX... and all those potential disappeared BTC... that are likely floating in the market... and also the other potential crap involved in the even that GOX customers are NOT made whole... financially......

I have been considering whether to cut my losses and to buy back in, or just to wait it out, hopefully, for the BTC prices to go below $520, again... ... I hate taking a loss on any of my trading...... but I do NOT want to get left in the dust, either, with a portion of my BTC portfolio... haven been converted to $$$ at $525...

Truly, the BTC market is going to react negatively, if Mt. Gox customers got screwed out of this dealeo...

Quote from: ChrisML on February 26, 2014, 10:11:42 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 26, 2014, 10:09:28 AM

Quote from: ChrisML on February 26, 2014, 10:01:58 AM

"How early adopters feel right now after the price went from $400 to $600 in a matter of hours"

I sold some at $525 - thinking the price would go back into the upper $400s before going up.... mostly based on the lack of an announcement from GOX... and all those potential disappeared BTC... that are likely floating in the market... and also the other potential crap involved in the even that GOX customers are NOT made whole... financially......

I have been considering whether to cut my losses and to buy back in, or just to wait it out, hopefully, for the BTC prices to go below $520, again... ... I hate taking a loss on any of my trading...... but I do NOT want to get left in the dust, either, with a portion of my BTC portfolio... haven been converted to $$$ at $525...

Why not hold. Look back at it in 2 months time. It's always sell sell sell.

I realize that we are in uncertain times... but I would hate to be left in the dust.... even though it does look like currently the market is moving in the right direction for me to recover...

Quote from: Rampion on February 26, 2014, 07:20:12 PM

Quote from: rpietila, the Vassal of the Mighty Goat on February 26, 2014, 12:52:46 PM

It is going down - 500 to be tested soon.

Reason: we are not that much below the long-term trend, so given the sentiment, we are "hanging in the air" when the solid ground is in 400-500, below that is a steal and above that is hopes.

Well, I hope you are right, I had a large deposit which hit today Bitstamp and I placed all my bids between $520 and $400.

Doesn't look too good ATM to be honest, but patience is a virtue.

Quote from: Dragonkiller on February 26, 2014, 06:41:58 PM

There's $23m+ on stamp's order book. where did that come from? i find it hard to believe all the people that got goxed that want to buy coins again sent their fiat to stamp so quickly.

Well, a little bit of that is mine. I guess that many bitcoiners followed the same line of thought I did: they got all excited by Gox going down, they smelled blood on the streets and they rushed to send as much fiat as possible to the exchanges to buy as many cheap coins as possible... And they failed. At least for now

It is quite possible that there was quite a bit of money in fiat waiting in the reserves on bitstamp... and that money was NOT newly deposited into bitstamp today. However, now that there seems to be some quasi-resolution to the GOX situation (which still remains quite unclear), some investors are putting in their buy orders with their fiat and so NOW all that reserve fiat, is suddenly showing up on the books. I would venture to bet that there is quite a bit more fiat in the reserves waiting for a clearer signal regarding a GOX resolution and to thereafter jump in. When that GOX resolution comes, we will truly have to da moon momentum.. UNLESS there is some new shenanigans (what could that be? government sabotage of sorts?)

Quote from: magicmexican on February 26, 2014, 07:50:39 PM

http://www.businessinsider.com/senator-calls-for-bitcoin-ban-2014-2

Sad

I think that these are the kinds of shenanigans that could keep BTC prices low and BTC in a state of slower growth and volatility... ... I think some lawmakers believe that they need to do something about BTC while it is still fairly small... ... but they do NOT realize that the cannot stop BTC ... but only to drive it underground.... Once we get past this stage and some of these shenanigans... then we are going to be looking at 10K+ BTCs

Quote from: KFR on February 26, 2014, 07:54:03 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 26, 2014, 07:43:16 PM

...and me using bitcoin cannot possibly tell me anything relevant to the sources of my skepticism.

So wrong Jorge. With the best will in the world you should really know better. Would you expect the same from a student?

Seriously. Download Bitcoin-QT. Sign up to an exchange. Buy yourself 0.1 BTC and spend some of it on junk.

To continue to plough this much time and effort into researching cryptocurrencies without having gone through that simple step seems daft.

WOW... I agree with this!!! I cannot see how anyone who is spending lots of time with BTC should at least have a little bit to play around with in order to see how it really works... to open up a few accounts... too...

Quote from: kkaspar on February 26, 2014, 07:56:24 PM

Quote from: Miz4r on February 26, 2014, 07:12:26 PM

People speculate on the BTC/USD pair (or BTC/crypto) just like they speculate on EUR/USD for instance. They all do it to make more money, because that's what speculators do. Now Bitcoin is a very young currency and still in its volatile growth phase, so it makes sense that more people are holding on to their coins for a longer period of time compared to Euros or Dollars for instance. This is going to change eventually as merchant adoption and the userbase grows. It won't be as easy to move the price around as much when BTC is a trillion dollar market.

Ok, I'll try to explain with more clarity. Maybe there is a language barrier that confuses you.

Currencies at forex = attractive for trading
BTC = Attractive for investment

Fiat currencies are unattractive as investments because they are inflationary and there is a good logic behind it. People are not making money on forex by investing into a currency, but they are making money by trading currencies with one another and make profit by value fluctuation.
People at forex are not investing, but they are trading.

I tried to be as clear as possible.

GREAT explanation...

Quote from: CoinDox on February 26, 2014, 11:20:30 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on February 26, 2014, 11:18:37 PM

Quote from: CoinDox on February 26, 2014, 11:17:23 PM

And the wall was not pulled but eaten! Shocked

Doesn't count as "eaten" if the buyer and seller are the same. Wink

@ .2% comission that is still 1,600 dollars and for what?

That is .2% for sell plus .2% for buying ... so would be .4% in fees... unless it is some kind of insider with a special no fee arrangement. In other words... I doubt it is the same person.... at least NOT in large proportions

Quote from: San1ty on February 26, 2014, 11:33:56 PM

Meanwhile at the Goxbury...

This would look a lot better if there were a cat in there, somewhere... hehehehe

Quote from: SheHadMANHands on February 26, 2014, 11:28:21 PM

I'm telling you.. we might just shoot straight to $700. I know it sounds crazy..

Cheesy

Seems like we gotta go down, to $520 or so before going up... ... then maybe $700 is possible maybe by the end of the week... .... well I know anything is possible.. but I am just saying.. all the gloomy news... we gotta go down a bit more first.

Quote from: porcupine87 on February 26, 2014, 11:57:25 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on February 26, 2014, 07:50:39 PM

http://www.businessinsider.com/senator-calls-for-bitcoin-ban-2014-2

Sad

Senator Wants to Ban Bitcoin for Being 'Disruptive to Our Economy'
http://mashable.com/2014/02/26/senator-manchin-bitcoin-ban/

Maybe, someone should send him a link to this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation

Bitcoin is as disruptive to the current banking system like digital cameras to analogue cameras. Or like the e-mail to the mail.
-> Yeah, let's ban it.

The market has not reacted to this. I don't think this guy has any chance. Bitcoin will not be banned in the US. But regulated? Highly possible.

Even if the legislation itself is NOT successful... the mere introduction of such could be a leveraging point to begin a dialogue concerning perceived threats and/or "problems" with bitcoin and/or other crypto currencies.

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on February 27, 2014, 01:07:43 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 27, 2014, 12:25:10 AM

Those funds are no more. They have has ceased to be. They have expired and gone to meet Satoshi. They are late funds. They are vapor. Bereft of existence, they rest in peace. If Karpeles hadn't left them on the balance sheet, they would've been written off ages ago. They've rung down the curtain and joined the choir invisible. They are ex-funds.

They are not gone, just pining for the blockchain...
Beautiful funds, those bitcoins.

This whole matter is far from being concluded... there is a lot of sorting that still NEEDS to be done. I am sure that we DO NOT know the half of the financial situation of Mt. Gox and the extent to which it may be feasible to either reopen or to reimburse customers.... these details are going to be worked out in the coming weeks.. and maybe months.

Quote from: Walsoraj on February 27, 2014, 02:40:21 AM

^ bad news, but I don't think it will flash crash us back down to $400. Oh well.

What do you think, then? Maybe we may crash in the upper $400s... once again.. and then slowly move upwards... until we are over this GOX situation... actually the GOX situation is one that is still quite filled with speculation... there is NOT really a solid indication, yet b/c once there is a solid indications, the market is going to move either up or down... but ultimately it will be moving up... .. just may be stalled a little bit before getting there... depending on the travesty of the situation.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 27, 2014, 03:04:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 27, 2014, 02:32:40 AM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on February 27, 2014, 01:07:43 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 27, 2014, 12:25:10 AM

Those funds are no more. They have has ceased to be. They have expired and gone to meet Satoshi. They are late funds. They are vapor. Bereft of existence, they rest in peace. If Karpeles hadn't left them on the balance sheet, they would've been written off ages ago. They've rung down the curtain and joined the choir invisible. They are ex-funds.

They are not gone, just pining for the blockchain...
Beautiful funds, those bitcoins.

This whole matter is far from being concluded... there is a lot of sorting that still NEEDS to be done. I am sure that we DO NOT know the half of the financial situation of Mt. Gox and the extent to which it may be feasible to either reopen or to reimburse customers.... these details are going to be worked out in the coming weeks.. and maybe months.

Dude, Gox was run into the ground. It was hollowed out completely. Karpeles didn't stop burning money until there was no more left to burn. It may take time to know the details or we may never know the details, but that doesn't change the relevant fact that Gox was bled dry. Denial is one of the stages of grief so it's ok, but acceptance is the last. See you there.

Why do YOU want to argue... ? You are speculating.. .and surely, I agree that there is a lot of inferential evidence pointing to bad conduct and/or fraud... however, it is far from certain, still. I am NOT in denial... I have NO stake in the outcome... except for the fact that I am invested in BTC.>>> but in either event, I will ake my investment decision based on facts.. rather than what continues to appear to be ambiguous speculation.

It is also far from clear about the extent of the fall out... ONCE that is made a little more clear, we will have a further market reaction (yes we already had some market reaction to this news).... and surely, the markets are going to begin to react.. far from any point of my knowing.. b/c there also seems to be quite a bit of insider trading going on in this BTC market..... ...

If BTC is NOT going to survive, then I am going to pull my investment; however, I tend to believe that the signs for the health of BTC, overall are positive. So, in that regard, I conclude that I do NOT have enough evidence to be in denial.. and you do not have enough either... hehehehehe

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 27, 2014, 03:43:39 AM

The bull case is being shouted down, but not by quality arguments. Look at the chart. I'd like to get a TA analysis by someone like TERA or another respected chartist. It looks ready to break out to the upside to me.

We CANNOT go upside with all this GOX uncertainty still looming in the public eye... even if some people here believe that the evidence is unambiguously clear. The public information remains far from clear... at this point... so I predict the top that we can get would be below $700... absent some resolution regarding the GOX situation.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 27, 2014, 04:18:02 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 27, 2014, 04:15:11 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 27, 2014, 03:04:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 27, 2014, 02:32:40 AM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on February 27, 2014, 01:07:43 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 27, 2014, 12:25:10 AM

Those funds are no more. They have has ceased to be. They have expired and gone to meet Satoshi. They are late funds. They are vapor. Bereft of existence, they rest in peace. If Karpeles hadn't left them on the balance sheet, they would've been written off ages ago. They've rung down the curtain and joined the choir invisible. They are ex-funds.

They are not gone, just pining for the blockchain...
Beautiful funds, those bitcoins.

This whole matter is far from being concluded... there is a lot of sorting that still NEEDS to be done. I am sure that we DO NOT know the half of the financial situation of Mt. Gox and the extent to which it may be feasible to either reopen or to reimburse customers.... these details are going to be worked out in the coming weeks.. and maybe months.

Dude, Gox was run into the ground. It was hollowed out completely. Karpeles didn't stop burning money until there was no more left to burn. It may take time to know the details or we may never know the details, but that doesn't change the relevant fact that Gox was bled dry. Denial is one of the stages of grief so it's ok, but acceptance is the last. See you there.

Why do YOU want to argue... ? You are speculating.. .and surely, I agree that there is a lot of inferential evidence pointing to bad conduct and/or fraud... however, it is far from certain, still. I am NOT in denial... I have NO stake in the outcome... except for the fact that I am invested in BTC.>>> but in either event, I will ake my investment decision based on facts.. rather than what continues to appear to be ambiguous speculation.

It is also far from clear about the extent of the fall out... ONCE that is made a little more clear, we will have a further market reaction (yes we already had some market reaction to this news).... and surely, the markets are going to begin to react.. far from any point of my knowing.. b/c there also seems to be quite a bit of insider trading going on in this BTC market..... ...

If BTC is NOT going to survive, then I am going to pull my investment; however, I tend to believe that the signs for the health of BTC, overall are positive. So, in that regard, I conclude that I do NOT have enough evidence to be in denial.. and you do not have enough either... hehehehehe

Good, anger- that's the next stage. You're making progress.

NOW you are engaging in attacking the person and making labels rather than talking substance... Maybe you are just arguing for the sake of it b/c you have made NO point, yet.. except to make attempts at criticizing me in some kind of aloof way... what is your point, exactly? You are acting as if you has some high and mighty inside knowledge or what? If so, give me your sources.

Quote from: fotosonics on February 27, 2014, 04:34:58 AM

Quote from: seleme on February 27, 2014, 04:31:52 AM

Are you ready to be filthy rich? Shocked

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/02/26/secondmarket-bitcoin-exchange-trading/5840593/

Well, I guess I could try to handle it...

What do you mean by "filthy" rich? Define "Filthy."

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 27, 2014, 04:59:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 27, 2014, 04:43:27 AM

NOW you are engaging in attacking the person and making labels rather than talking substance... Maybe you are just arguing for the sake of it b/c you have made NO point, yet.. except to make attempts at criticizing me in some kind of aloof way... what is your point, exactly? You are acting as if you has some high and mighty inside knowledge or what? If so, give me your sources.

*sigh* I have in insight into human nature that others with the same insight recognize and others don't. Mark's behavior is only fathomable given one scenario, the one I outlined in multiple previous posts. I also have enough insight to predict that you find my evidence an reason insufficient and will continue to do so until the whole story comes out, but by then BTC will be several hundred dollars higher than now.

I know that sounds arrogant and condescending. I'm sorry. I'm not known to play well with others.

YES... your way of expressing seems arrogant and condescending, and maybe you are some kind of expert... NOTHING wrong with that... ON the other hand, I do NOT see any meaningful purpose in the way you are expressing.. but to each his own.. b/c I am NOT going to let it get to me.. ... at least, NOT based on our few interactions, so far. And, you may be correct about your hunch... .. .or whatever you want to call it.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 27, 2014, 05:03:25 AM

Quote from: fotosonics on February 27, 2014, 04:04:09 AM

Did you buy 1 bitcoin yet? That would make for some excitement

No. And I must confess to something much worse than pontificating on bitcoin without ever having used it:

I have served jury duty five times, all murder cases, without having murdered anyone before.

So, before I buy some bitcoin, I must fill that gap in my experience, in case I am again called to serve. Would you volunteer?

YOU are being ridiculous.... with your comparison.. Certainly, I do NOT believe that a person has to experience everything to talk about it... but there are credibility questions.. and buying a bitcoin is in NO way like murder.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 27, 2014, 07:03:59 AM

Quote from: smashing on February 27, 2014, 06:41:28 AM

Quote from: hmmmstrange on February 27, 2014, 05:41:17 AM

http://www.scribd.com/doc/209535200/Business-Plan-MtGox-2014-2017

$2 million in profit in the current fiscal year? And all the hassle, risk and aggravation? Remind me never to go into the Bitcoin business.

That document is evidence of attempted fraud. Their profit was much higher than 2 million but Mark lost much much more. The majority of new capital was to cover for Karpeles' blunders. Mark is not just out of business now. He's going to jail.

WE still do NOT know whether he did anything illegal.

Quote from: MickeyT2008 on February 27, 2014, 07:15:12 AM

Surely if we take the story at face value about the theft of the coins then it becomes fraud the moment the loss of the coins is discovered if trading is allowed to continue. That would mean from that this point in time that people were knowingly being allowed to buy coins that don't exist. This of course would raise the question of whether trading stopped on discovery of this or later on. Up until that point it would be incompetence, if trading continues once it's realised that there's no coins then doesn't it become a crime?

Actually, it may be a crime if there were banking regulations, but if there was NO intent to defraud investors, then how could that be a crime?

Quote from: Holliday on February 27, 2014, 06:22:30 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on February 27, 2014, 06:18:03 PM

Quote from: Holliday on February 27, 2014, 06:15:21 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on February 27, 2014, 06:08:47 PM

Quote from: Holliday on February 27, 2014, 06:02:21 PM

No one can force you to join a fork. No one. Sure you may end up as the only user on your side of the fork, in which case, what is the point?

Ultimately, the economic majority has the power to decide. If all the devs and all the miners decide to fork for whatever reason, and the economic majority decides they don't agree, the economic majority sells it's coins and the devs and miners are playing with worthless tokens.

In the case of a fork, it's highly likely that only one chain will survive. There are far, far more coins that weren't lost in the Gox implosion than there are coins that were lost. If the devs and miners decide to fraudulently manipulate the code to "save" those coins, I'm sure we will see massive dumping of coins on this fork and only Bitcoin will remain in the end. I know I will be selling my forked coins and if anyone is stupid enough to give me something of value for them, I will immediately purchase more actual Bitcoins with the money.

So, I'd like to see it because I hope that I would end up with more actual Bitcoins once everything is said and done. Those who choose the wrong fork will most likely end up with nothing but a harsh lesson about why Bitcoin exists in the first place. I don't think anyone is stupid enough to try and bail out Gox with a protocol change though.

Why would anyone want both chains to survive? It seems to me, miners would want no Gox fork and just about every investor in bitcoin, ever, (assuming the 500k+ sum) would want the fork. I dont doubt a lot of the coins would be dumped causing a temporary decrease in price, but the trust something like this would generate for me..

I never said anyone would want both chains to survive.

As I said, there are far, far more non-Gox-lost coins than Gox-lost coins. Why would the majority of holders (non-Gox coins) want to bail out Gox users for failing to understand the implications of letting a third party hold your "bitcoins".

Because the sheer quantity of it. Nothing more. Doesnt matter who, why, or where. If 500k coins were lost for some other reason, I dont see why people wouldnt support getting people their funds back. All this "trust loss' stuff isnt making even the slightest bit of sense to me. Sounds like people are getting boners on the thought of 6% less coins, for a whopping... 6% increase in value each?

Forking Bitcoin to make Gox users whole would destroy trust in Bitcoin itself.

Talk about cutting off the nose to spite the face.

Yes... forking in such circumstances would cause a major problem to incentivize sloppy behavior... it would be like the 2007/8 bank bail out... and should NOT take place in the bitcoin world.

Quote from: MickeyT2008 on February 28, 2014, 12:28:56 AM

Quote from: derpinheimer on February 28, 2014, 12:25:07 AM

Quote from: MickeyT2008 on February 28, 2014, 12:21:50 AM

I haven't been keeping track of things today, is the current Gox situation still no real news but plenty of speculation and fud?

Fortunately I removed my small BTC stash from there a while ago.

Yup!

Some more additional fuel like

1. Gox coins possibly seized/frozen by US Govt?
2. Gox filing for bankruptcy?
3. Possible Gox addresses with large sums of coins? (Solvent?)

------

BTW, the failed breakout is pretty scary IMO? Anyone agree?

That's what I thought. It'd be nice for everyone with funds in there is somehow Karpeles pulled a rabbit out of the hat and nobody lost anything, but it doesn't look very likely. If he had everyone's BTC/fiat then surely he'd have said so by now.

I agree that:
1) if knows that he has all of the customer funds, he would have said so by now;
2) if he does NOT know whether he has all of it, but he thinks that he has most of it, Gox would probably still be open;
3) if he does NOT know but estimates that he has anywhere under 50-70% or customer funds, it may be good to be silent until he is able to figure out the details (and in the meanwhile shut down.. b/c he does NOT know what the fuck is going on)

I believe 3 is the most-likely situation - and possibly customers will receive up to 50% of their funds back at some point.... although since the situation is evolving, there may be further expenses and lack of fund generation.. at the moment... and the reimbursement amount might get smaller as time passes without resolution... so in the end, maybe Gox customers will get 10-30% of their funds.

Quite a bit of speculation, here, of course.

Quote from: kkaspar on February 28, 2014, 12:46:05 AM

It's a long and boring way down with this speed...

This is a ridiculous representation - b/c it fails to start from the beginning... therefore it picks some random starting point, and then draws some random line that seems to be based on pure speculation.

Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on February 28, 2014, 02:16:20 AM

Lol bitcoin tried to breakout to the upside twice, and failed both times. At least something is happening !

When was this supposed breakout?

You mean a day or so ago when it nearly went passed $620 on bitstamp?

And what is happening with bitcoin exactly... I have seen bitcoin stagnation for about two days... stagnation that is likely based on ongoing uncertainty concerning the status of MTGox and how big of an impact 750K or more coins could have on the direction of the current infancy state of bitcoin... and solution moving forward... ...

IN my view, few of the potential scenarios would be fatal to bitcoin absent some outlying possibility of a conniving government plot that may use their accumulation of confiscated coins on an ongoing basis to continue to attempt to undermine bitcoin.. (potentially a million or more coins in the hands of the USA govt and possibly other governments that could be used to manipulate BTC in various ways in supplement to other govt oppressive measures to undermine confidence in bitcoin). B/c of what it has learned about various peer to peer networks, Govt probably realizes that it cannot win to attack bitcoin directly and will likely have to engage in various behind the scene and passive aggressive measures to keep bitcoin "in-check."

Quote from: kkaspar on February 28, 2014, 02:20:50 AM

There is no use trying to convince me that bitcoin can survive more then couple of years, before it will get eaten by competition. To me it sounds like, when someone is the first to struck oil, and then no one else on earth will drill for oil any longer, because someone else already did it. Creating the perfect digital currency will soon be the holy grail to everyone who consider them to be geniuses at software engineering.

I CANNOT disagree with you, here. It is very possible that there is going to be an improvement on bitcoin that will undermine bitcoin... but that is in the future.. and maybe even, as you say, two years or so. At the moment... bitcoin is pretty damn good... and bitcoin is "the one" to invest into b/c it is the direction of the future. However, if a better "one" comes along 6 months from now, one year, two years or even longer.. at that point, it is very possible that we could transfer our investment from bitcoin to that other "one." Accordingly, what's the problem... Invest in bitcoin now, and when that other better one comes along, then move assets into that other better one... NO problema.

Quote from: Hypnoise on February 28, 2014, 02:43:54 AM

waiting for more cheap coins Roll Eyes

When is this going to happen, and how low is it going to go... I would like some more too in the coming week or so... and then thereafter we can be on our moonward journey...

Quote from: derpinheimer on February 28, 2014, 04:06:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 04:01:09 AM

Quote from: kkaspar on February 28, 2014, 02:20:50 AM

There is no use trying to convince me that bitcoin can survive more then couple of years, before it will get eaten by competition. To me it sounds like, when someone is the first to struck oil, and then no one else on earth will drill for oil any longer, because someone else already did it. Creating the perfect digital currency will soon be the holy grail to everyone who consider them to be geniuses at software engineering.

I CANNOT disagree with you, here. It is very possible that there is going to be an improvement on bitcoin that will undermine bitcoin... but that is in the future.. and maybe even, as you say, two years or so. At the moment... bitcoin is pretty damn good... and bitcoin is "the one" to invest into b/c it is the direction of the future. However, if a better "one" comes along 6 months from now, one year, two years or even longer.. at that point, it is very possible that we could transfer our investment from bitcoin to that other "one." Accordingly, what's the problem... Invest in bitcoin now, and when that other better one comes along, then move assets into that other better one... NO problema.

Quote from: Hypnoise on February 28, 2014, 02:43:54 AM

waiting for more cheap coins Roll Eyes

When is this going to happen, and how low is it going to go... I would like some more too in the coming week or so... and then thereafter we can be on our moonward journey...

$300

What is $300? and when and for how long? a flash crash? We got down to $400 in a couple of flash crashes in the last week.

Quote from: KeyserSoze on February 28, 2014, 04:52:10 AM

Quote from: kkaspar on February 28, 2014, 01:14:16 AM

Cult behavior among the surrounding community is actually driving away a lot of potential investors. People need to come down to earth a little more, or else bitcoin will look more and more like a joke.

5 years of this same bullshit. You're wrong now on all accounts, and I will speculate you'll be wrong for another 5 years.

YOU guys have been posting in this forum... for 5 years? or even 2-3 years.. would be quite a bit...

Quote from: Syke on February 28, 2014, 06:38:40 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 05:50:24 AM

YOU guys have been posting in this forum... for 5 years? or even 2-3 years.. would be quite a bit...

Well, this forum hasn't been around 5 years, but a few of us have been here a very long time.

In bitcoin time, a year is a long time... especially when it comes to the result(s) of public exposure to bitcoin.... I started in bitcoin in November 2013... It sure would have been nice to have gotten involved earlier, such as summer of 2013... but anyhow.. better late than never, and even though I am somewhat late, it still seems like the early days of bitcoin, in terms of potential.

Quote from: KeyserSoze on February 28, 2014, 07:19:53 AM

Quote from: Syke on February 28, 2014, 06:38:40 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 05:50:24 AM

YOU guys have been posting in this forum... for 5 years? or even 2-3 years.. would be quite a bit...

Well, this forum hasn't been around 5 years, but a few of us have been here a very long time.

3, 4, 5 years, whatever it is, same debates over and over. Seems like 10 years. Knuckleheads who can't seem to do their own research or bother to read the forums claiming Bitcoin is dead or dying soon yet it goes on, outliving its own obituaries, currently worth a mere 575 times USD.

Actually, I get you on that part. Even though I am a newbie in this particular forum, I am NOT a newbie to life and ridiculous and repetitive non-logical arguments... the naysayers, so to speak, who are NOT really contributing to the direction of the conversation.

Quote from: bassclef on February 28, 2014, 07:24:30 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 07:09:06 AM

Quote from: Syke on February 28, 2014, 06:38:40 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 05:50:24 AM

YOU guys have been posting in this forum... for 5 years? or even 2-3 years.. would be quite a bit...

Well, this forum hasn't been around 5 years, but a few of us have been here a very long time.

In bitcoin time, a year is a long time... especially when it comes to the result(s) of public exposure to bitcoin.... I started in bitcoin in November 2013... It sure would have been nice to have gotten involved earlier, such as summer of 2013... but anyhow.. better late than never, and even though I am somewhat late, it still seems like the early days of bitcoin, in terms of potential.

I got in circa summer 2013. Heard about Bitcoin the previous year, but didn't explore it enough. Worst mistake ever. Lots of scandal going on, even then, but also so much opportunity if you could see the forest through the trees. I can't tell you how many people thought it could never top $100 (such a psychological barrier btw). It helps to put the current situation into perspective and not fly off the handle over a few lost coins.

Personally, I am NOT too worried about the MT. Gox situation in the whole scheme of things - however, it is leaving some uncertainty for some time b/c we are NOT getting very clear communication about the extent of the damage and/or the extent to which any investors will be made whole. Certainly with the passage of time, more and more regular people are finding out about bitcoin.. and there becomes more and more potential for bitcoin to begin to fill some various voids and to take on the value of various asset classes in the forum of currency, commodity, money transmitter, and network - amongst other potentialities.

Quote from: delphic on February 28, 2014, 09:30:14 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 04:01:09 AM

Quote from: kkaspar on February 28, 2014, 02:20:50 AM

There is no use trying to convince me that bitcoin can survive more then couple of years, before it will get eaten by competition. To me it sounds like, when someone is the first to struck oil, and then no one else on earth will drill for oil any longer, because someone else already did it. Creating the perfect digital currency will soon be the holy grail to everyone who consider them to be geniuses at software engineering.

I CANNOT disagree with you, here. It is very possible that there is going to be an improvement on bitcoin that will undermine bitcoin... but that is in the future.. and maybe even, as you say, two years or so. At the moment... bitcoin is pretty damn good... and bitcoin is "the one" to invest into b/c it is the direction of the future. However, if a better "one" comes along 6 months from now, one year, two years or even longer.. at that point, it is very possible that we could transfer our investment from bitcoin to that other "one." Accordingly, what's the problem... Invest in bitcoin now, and when that other better one comes along, then move assets into that other better one... NO problema.

Quote from: Hypnoise on February 28, 2014, 02:43:54 AM

waiting for more cheap coins Roll Eyes

When is this going to happen, and how low is it going to go... I would like some more too in the coming week or so... and then thereafter we can be on our moonward journey...

It amuses me whenever people think they will be able to 'transfer' investments from BTC into a new hypothetical coin.

Short of selling the BTC (which would implicitly be devalued because of the new, better coin) and buying the new coin, how would that work?

Be amused all that you want... THESE kinds of transfers from one asset class to another happen all the time with various kinds of investment... some people will see the opportunity to transfer their assets early on and transfer and others will wait too long.. there is a lot of variability in what people will do and how they will invest and how they will predict the future..

in the mean time, and currently today and seemingly in the next year at least, BTC is the place to be... b/c we DO NOT know about another replacement crypto.... even some promising like Ethereum or another are NOT far enough along in order to take over BTC market share... which may come down the road, but NOT today...

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 28, 2014, 05:41:01 PM

Quote from: aminorex on February 28, 2014, 05:29:04 PM

Quote from: hdbuck on February 28, 2014, 03:44:14 PM

remember that 10k whale on stamp jsut before gox went offline? things will get dirty sooner or later.

has he bought back in yet?

The amateurish way those coins were dumped suggest he didn't. Whoever got those BTC near $400 knew exactly what they were doing. I expect the 10K whale to get back in ABOVE his dump price.

Yeah.. that was 10K sold at $579... and he would have had plenty of opportunities to buy back over the last couple of days for $550 or less... or even in the lower $500s.. for a while... ... but would have anyone noticed? .. it would be difficult to buy in that quantity of 10K in one shot... or in big increments...

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 28, 2014, 05:41:01 PM

Quote from: aminorex on February 28, 2014, 05:29:04 PM

Quote from: hdbuck on February 28, 2014, 03:44:14 PM

remember that 10k whale on stamp jsut before gox went offline? things will get dirty sooner or later.

has he bought back in yet?

The amateurish way those coins were dumped suggest he didn't. Whoever got those BTC near $400 knew exactly what they were doing. I expect the 10K whale to get back in ABOVE his dump price.

YEAH RIGHT.... There was insider trading going on there... and he is back in ... HE is NOT so stupid as to wait.... ~~That's ridiculous...~~

EDIT::::: I reconsidered my post... and... it is possible that if the BTC were stolen.. then the guy would go back in above $579 in order to camloflage... the situation a bit... ... so .. .. I retract the ridiculous portion of my earlier response.

Quote from: Kj1 on February 28, 2014, 07:15:22 PM

Quote from: Mythul on February 20, 2014, 06:14:24 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on February 20, 2014, 06:11:08 PM

Quote from: wobber on February 20, 2014, 05:57:55 PM

Do you have any proof of sending 50k to mtgox? This is not speculation is throwing money off the window. You might win, but still it's stupid to do.

Ninja with balls of STEEL I salute you !!!

awtch

There is NOT even a date on that page... but I suppose that there will be a correlation with other records... and then within GOX there are a lot of records of various transactions and trandes that may have taken place between the date of the deposit and the date of the closing of the exchange. HOWEVER, I am confident that ONLY a small portion of GOX customers went through the effort to save those various pages of electronic data (even though there were several weeks in which that saving of pages could have been done (between the time of the discontinuance of withdrawals until the time of the shutting off of the website)..

Quote from: Adrian-x on February 28, 2014, 07:44:23 PM

Quote from: TakeTheSkyRoad on February 28, 2014, 07:29:42 PM

Quote from: Adrian-x on February 28, 2014, 07:21:30 PM

Quote from: 600watt on February 28, 2014, 05:44:04 PM

Quote from: yrtrnc on February 28, 2014, 04:46:06 PM

This in just now

http://qz.com/182637/meet-the-4-25-billion-asset-manager-that-took-a-bath-on-bitcoin/

Quote

Fortress Financial Group, a publicly-traded asset manager with a market value of $4.26 billion, reported its 2013 results yesterday—and its biggest investment loss was bitcoin.

in my opinion it is a good thing that big money is getting in. so thumbs up for fortress. but..

but...

to effectivly create your biggest loss of all assets in bitcoin during 2013 is an outstanding example of bad timing.

Wow, to screw up like that they would have bought in after November 15 (say at the peak November 30) and sold at the bottom December 15) and dropped around $7 bar into the game and be totally out before Q4 ends.

Assume they put in the minimum nesesary for the loss they account for about 20% of all volume invested in Bitcoin.

Not the behavior of a competent investment firm.

Looks like they bought in and have hodl since..... losses are listed as "unrealised" so they haven't sold the BTC yet

so they put at least $7,000,000 in at the top. wow, not sure ill invests with these guys.

Probably investment groups should follow the same kind of protection that individuals should follow... especially after a run up of an asset class... and that is to spread out their investment and to engage in a form of dollar cost averaging... ... let's say that they wanted to get into bitcoin, and they were in a hurry to get some in before the end of the year... .. Accordingly, they could have started at the end of November.. at the peak.. and then on a weekly basis invested 1.5 million... or something like that... they may NOT be in too bad of a position if they had averaged it out a little bit... especially for the potential long or medium term that we are pretty certain to be above $1,200 per BTC by the end of 2014... even if we have some ups and downs in the middle... ...

In other words, I am of the belief that a competent investment firm is going to explore a little bit rather than going in BALLS to the WALLS...

Quote from: seleme on February 28, 2014, 07:48:40 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 07:46:14 PM

Quote from: Kj1 on February 28, 2014, 07:15:22 PM

Quote from: Mythul on February 20, 2014, 06:14:24 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on February 20, 2014, 06:11:08 PM

Quote from: wobber on February 20, 2014, 05:57:55 PM

Do you have any proof of sending 50k to mtgox? This is not speculation is throwing money off the window. You might win, but still it's stupid to do.

Ninja with balls of STEEL I salute you !!!

awtch

There is NOT even a date on that page... but I suppose that there will be a correlation with other records... and then within GOX there are a lot of records of various transactions and trandes that may have taken place between the date of the deposit and the date of the closing of the exchange. HOWEVER, I am confident that ONLY a small portion of GOX customers went through the effort to save those various pages of electronic data (even though there were several weeks in which that saving of pages could have been done (between the time of the discontinuance of withdrawals until the time of the shutting off of the website)..

Gox went down with his 1200 BTC. He was not seen here since he said how much he lost there. Serious shit.

Some guy reported 4200 BTC Gox loss. Shit.

Actually, even though some people take risks in their investments and their hopes that businesses and persons are acting with a certain level of integrity, sometimes the risks are kind of anticipated....... ... and like everyone says, the best time to invest is when others are running away from that investment....... .... ...

YES>>> >> the blood of a lot of people will boil... when they read the level of admissions of loss or theft that occurred through GOX....... it is really bullshit and it still does NOT add up... that anything other than fraud was going on at some level..... which actors are responsible??? probably a few people besides Mark... .. even though the buck stopped with Mark.

Quote from: uhoh on February 28, 2014, 08:26:01 PM

Quote from: virtualfaqs on February 28, 2014, 08:19:52 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 08:04:45 PM

Quote from: seleme on February 28, 2014, 07:48:40 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 07:46:14 PM

Quote from: Kj1 on February 28, 2014, 07:15:22 PM

Quote from: Mythul on February 20, 2014, 06:14:24 PM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on February 20, 2014, 06:11:08 PM

Quote from: wobber on February 20, 2014, 05:57:55 PM

Do you have any proof of sending 50k to mtgox? This is not speculation is throwing money off the window. You might win, but still it's stupid to do.

***Image deleted***

Ninja with balls of STEEL I salute you !!!

awtch

There is NOT even a date on that page... but I suppose that there will be a correlation with other records... and then within GOX there are a lot of records of various transactions and trandes that may have taken place between the date of the deposit and the date of the closing of the exchange. HOWEVER, I am confident that ONLY a small portion of GOX customers went through the effort to save those various pages of electronic data (even though there were several weeks in which that saving of pages could have been done (between the time of the discontinuance of withdrawals until the time of the shutting off of the website)..

Gox went down with his 1200 BTC. He was not seen here since he said how much he lost there. Serious shit.

Some guy reported 4200 BTC Gox loss. Shit.

Actually, even though some people take risks in their investments and their hopes that businesses and persons are acting with a certain level of integrity, sometimes the risks are kind of anticipated....... ... and like everyone says, the best time to invest is when others are running away from that investment....... .... ...

YES>>> >> the blood of a lot of people will boil... when they read the level of admissions of loss or theft that occurred through GOX....... it is really bullshit and it still does NOT add up... that anything other than fraud was going on at some level..... which actors are responsible??? probably a few people besides Mark... .. even though the buck stopped with Mark.

Bitcoin Builder claims losses of 8000 BTC + $400K USD.

He took fees both sides of the trade on BitcoinBuilder.... He made plenty of RealBTC(tm)

Yeah.... 2% fees on both ends... .... so, yeah, so long as he was collecting those new BTC and storing those newly collected BTC outside of GOX, then he should be o.k.... Additionally, He should have been smart enough to structure his business and the bets in such a way that he wins, no matter what happened to GOX....

Current BTC to MTGOX BTC rate is .0413... as I type...

Quote from: mmitech on February 28, 2014, 08:32:30 PM

constant dumping at stamp... more than 1k dumped the last 30 min

If that $552 wall gets moved off of Bitstamp... which seems that it has been diluted a little bit (as I type)... there are more buy orders as compared with sell orders on bitstamp.. ... ?Accordingly we may be ready for the downward party... at least for a little while (and downward a good $30 to $50)... I cannot see the price going down much below $500 though... and even if it goes below $500, it is likely only to last for merely a short period of time... that is my current thinking based on the news that we have in front of us at the moment and the various pent up demand to get into bitcoin that seems to exist out there.

Quote from: dreamspark on February 28, 2014, 08:36:43 PM

Stolen coins have hit the market Grin

I would think that these stolen coins, to the extent they exist, have already been absorbed into the BTC market... there may be some here and there that still need to be reallocated or washed or whatever, but in the end... the market has likely largely adjusted to the GOX coins

Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on February 28, 2014, 09:10:29 PM

Frrom Bitcoinbuilder FAQ

Quote

As it got bigger though, I decided the only use I should have is to convert all the "real" BTC fees I earn into GOXBTC. The reasoning behind this is two-fold.. 1. I do think gox will be fine and it's a good investment, but also 2. if somehow they're not, I want to be in the same (sinking) boat with everybody else.

That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently? And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking? Anyhow... So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs?

Quote from: seleme on February 28, 2014, 09:47:07 PM

Well, it better go down now. I've turned to fiat almost all I could.

What price are you banking on? $520-ish? or some other amount?

Quote from: deadfi$h on February 28, 2014, 09:48:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 09:44:19 PM

Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on February 28, 2014, 09:10:29 PM

Frrom Bitcoinbuilder FAQ

Quote

As it got bigger though, I decided the only use I should have is to convert all the "real" BTC fees I earn into GOXBTC. The reasoning behind this is two-fold.. 1. I do think gox will be fine and it's a good investment, but also 2. if somehow they're not, I want to be in the same (sinking) boat with everybody else.

That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently? And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking? Anyhow... So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs?

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Why would he want to go down with the ship when he was offering a fair service? He was giving people the opportunity to buy/sell the risk of Gox imploding where both sides knew what they were getting into.

Wants to show a loss for tax purposes maybe?

The ONLY explanation that I can think of is that HE was trying to appear as a GOOD and honest business man... in order that he would inspire investors to have confidence in him and that he was NOT just being a sheister..... ...

Quote from: aminorex on February 28, 2014, 09:50:13 PM

seems 530 to 600 is the new vol band. probably be trading that range for a while

I predict 4-5 days at most in this range... then we are going to bust out... and be in the $750 to $850 range... ... My prediction is based on pent-up demand for BTC... and also based on the fact that we have largely found out enough facts about GOX in order to adequately understand the range of ramifications...

Quote from: Adrian-x on February 28, 2014, 10:04:11 PM

Quote from: deadfi$h on February 28, 2014, 09:48:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 09:44:19 PM

Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on February 28, 2014, 09:10:29 PM

Frrom Bitcoinbuilder FAQ

Quote

As it got bigger though, I decided the only use I should have is to convert all the "real" BTC fees I earn into GOXBTC. The reasoning behind this is two-fold.. 1. I do think gox will be fine and it's a good investment, but also 2. if somehow they're not, I want to be in the same (sinking) boat with everybody else.

That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently? And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking? Anyhow... So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs?

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Why would he want to go down with the ship when he was offering a fair service? He was giving people the opportunity to buy/sell the risk of Gox imploding where both sides knew what they were getting into.

Wants to show a loss for tax purposes maybe?

he doesn't want to fold, he isn't, he is being controlled by TPTB, they sent silk road layers after him, and his bank (Mizuho Bank) with Gag orders, he is playing for time, still he has no Bitcoins, if TPTB win the coins are lost, or he wins (not a chance i think) he gets his safety deposit box back.

Do you mean that he is in a similar boat as Charlie Shrem?

Quote from: zyk on February 28, 2014, 10:18:23 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 10:04:08 PM

Quote from: seleme on February 28, 2014, 09:47:07 PM

Well, it better go down now. I've turned to fiat almost all I could.

What price are you banking on? $520-ish? or some other amount?

Quote from: deadfi$h on February 28, 2014, 09:48:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 09:44:19 PM

Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on February 28, 2014, 09:10:29 PM

Frrom Bitcoinbuilder FAQ

Quote

As it got bigger though, I decided the only use I should have is to convert all the "real" BTC fees I earn into GOXBTC. The reasoning behind this is two-fold.. 1. I do think gox will be fine and it's a good investment, but also 2. if somehow they're not, I want to be in the same (sinking) boat with everybody else.

That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently? And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking? Anyhow... So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs?

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Why would he want to go down with the ship when he was offering a fair service? He was giving people the opportunity to buy/sell the risk of Gox imploding where both sides knew what they were getting into.

Wants to show a loss for tax purposes maybe?

The ONLY explanation that I can think of is that HE was trying to appear as a GOOD and honest business man... in order that he would inspire investors to have confidence in him and that he was NOT just being a sheister..... ...

Quote from: aminorex on February 28, 2014, 09:50:13 PM

seems 530 to 600 is the new vol band. probably be trading that range for a while

I predict 4-5 days at most in this range... then we are going to bust out... and be in the $750 to $850 range... ... My prediction is based on pent-up demand for BTC... and also based on the fact that we have largely found out enough facts about GOX in order to adequately understand the range of ramifications...

No you haven´t....who sold those 750000 BTC at Gox under 300 dollars and to which account were the

money withdrawn.....who was the 10 k wall 3 hours before bitidiot came out ?

Can you even fathom the ramnifications of this selling? Come on ...we are here to speculate! Wink

Surely we are here to speculate... MY MAIN point is that we have been made A LOT more aware of what is going on... than we were one day ago... At least NOW we have a bankrupcy filing and an outline of facts and a general direction... before that, we were totally speculating on all kinds of scenarios...... surely, there can still be quite a few scenarios... but at least we are Narrowed down a little bit in the range of possibilities, no?

Quote from: Richy_T on February 28, 2014, 10:46:22 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on February 28, 2014, 10:42:58 AM

Am i really the only one who is concerned that Bitcoin hasn't responded to ANY good news in MONTHS?
People dump every single time there is some bad news. Often it isn't even bad news but more like "i'm gonna panic sell in case it us bad news". We go lower and lower. Now we're at 570. There will be good news. Nobody will give a shit. They're all waiting for the next bad news so we can go lower again.
We would need to most amazing super positive news ever to stop this and i don't see this coming.

So give me one reason why we could go up again. I can't find any. I really can't.

Edit: how much longer will we be going down because of Gox. They are gone. Will it take us down for months to come? Can't people just get over it?

Maybe someone has been quietly liquidating 750k coins

I AM also thinking that the liquidating of BTC has been going on for months...

Quote from: zyk on February 28, 2014, 11:46:56 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on February 28, 2014, 11:40:21 PM

Quote from: fonzie on February 28, 2014, 11:35:33 PM

Last hope for Bitcoin: fake buywalls

THEY WON`T PROTECT YOU!!

Their only purpose is to lure suckers in to place their bids above them, when enough bids
have been built, we will get a level lower. slow and painful

There is no such thing as "fake" walls. Wink

Quote from: Walsoraj on November 05, 2013, 02:20:39 AM

Quote from: mccorvic on November 05, 2013, 02:18:46 AM

Aren't walls always fake? If I've learned anything from my years in bitcoins, it's that all walls everywhere are fake.

Walls are simultaneously fake and real, until observed. Then they become one or the other, depending on the testing conditions.

This is called Quantum Speculation. It's science, bro.

No its game - theory or called common sense...you are either with us or against us Wink

I think that it is called leveraging what you have to your best advantage (to the advantage of yourself personally... and damn the rest) There is no brotherhood... unless you form some kind of team/pool to accomplish an objective for the members on the team as a unit.

Quote from: aminorex on February 28, 2014, 11:50:45 PM

Quote from: sonofliberty on February 28, 2014, 11:47:08 PM

You know the market is bearish when...

so true. i just wish there were more honest bears, worthy of respect. so often the "theses" of "bears" is fabricated, predicated on disinformation, or pure FUD. it makes it very hard to find actual, useful, bearish analysis. in fact, i have developed an unfortunate bullish myopia by being innoculated against strong bearish cases by the myriad of weak bearish cases. i have to constantly correct for my own bull blinders.

VERY well stated.... many of these bears are spreading disinformation and have their heads stuck up some asses.. maybe even their own... Sometimes what is curious to me, is why they are hanging around these forums... just get out of bitcoin and go on your marry way... rather than educating guys who are more educated about bitcoin and/or other cryptos...

NONETHELESS, I do NOT claim to be any expert... yet frequently I can tell when I am being hoodwinked...

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on March 01, 2014, 12:07:19 AM

I'll start buying when 500 breaks

When are we gonna get there, though? This has really been slow and painful... and really barely going down... I was expecting something a little more drastic... .. in order that we can get it over with and thereafter begin our slow journey moonward... at least in the mini-moon territory of $750-$800 and pause there for a while - maybe 3-6 months - before going to the $1200 to $1500 arena...

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 01, 2014, 12:17:51 AM

Guess the bottom? I say 480´s

When? Over the weekend? Saturday?

Quote from: GreekGeek on March 01, 2014, 12:20:45 AM

this will be more like the 2011 correction and less like the April 2013 correction

it willl take a long time for fresh money to poor back in to the system (if it does at all)

THAT's crazy-talk... there has been all kinds of new attention towards BTC.... within a week or two we are getting back into the $750 to $850 range.. and within 6-9 months we will be new all time high.. maybe even in the $1500 range..

Quote from: zyk on March 01, 2014, 12:43:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 12:33:12 AM

Quote from: zyk on February 28, 2014, 10:18:23 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 10:04:08 PM

Quote from: seleme on February 28, 2014, 09:47:07 PM

Well, it better go down now. I've turned to fiat almost all I could.

What price are you banking on? $520-ish? or some other amount?

Quote from: deadfi$h on February 28, 2014, 09:48:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 09:44:19 PM

Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on February 28, 2014, 09:10:29 PM

Frrom Bitcoinbuilder FAQ

Quote

As it got bigger though, I decided the only use I should have is to convert all the "real" BTC fees I earn into GOXBTC. The reasoning behind this is two-fold.. 1. I do think gox will be fine and it's a good investment, but also 2. if somehow they're not, I want to be in the same (sinking) boat with everybody else.

That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently? And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking? Anyhow... So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs?

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Why would he want to go down with the ship when he was offering a fair service? He was giving people the opportunity to buy/sell the risk of Gox imploding where both sides knew what they were getting into.

Wants to show a loss for tax purposes maybe?

The ONLY explanation that I can think of is that HE was trying to appear as a GOOD and honest business man... in order that he would inspire investors to have confidence in him and that he was NOT just being a sheister..... ...

Quote from: aminorex on February 28, 2014, 09:50:13 PM

seems 530 to 600 is the new vol band. probably be trading that range for a while

I predict 4-5 days at most in this range... then we are going to bust out... and be in the $750 to $850 range... ... My prediction is based on pent-up demand for BTC... and also based on the fact that we have largely found out enough facts about GOX in order to adequately understand the range of ramifications...

No you haven´t....who sold those 750000 BTC at Gox under 300 dollars and to which account were the

money withdrawn.....who was the 10 k wall 3 hours before bitidiot came out ?

Can you even fathom the ramnifications of this selling? Come on ...we are here to speculate! Wink

Surely we are here to speculate... MY MAIN point is that we have been made A LOT more aware of what is going on... than we were one day ago... At least NOW we have a bankrupcy filing and an outline of facts and a general direction... before that, we were totally speculating on all kinds of scenarios...... surely, there can still be quite a few scenarios... but at least we are Narrowed down a little bit in the range of possibilities, no?

No ! The plug is pulled....no fresh flesh is coming when a ponzi dies......and if the crooks at the top come

out scot free of it...BTC dies as well !

I guess we have a differing view of things...

LOTS of doom and gloom that you seem to be expressing...

MtGox seems to have been a ponzi scheme.... I will concede that... . but NOT bitcoin... ... Also... there are much worse scandals in fiat that take place on a very regular basis... though of course this GOX situation will get a lot more press than those fiat scandals... .. anyhow, BTC is going to come out of this and it is going to continue to attract investors..... absent some extreme government measures... that undermine or delay the success of BTC...

Quote from: GreekGeek on March 01, 2014, 12:43:34 AM

Quote from: zyk on March 01, 2014, 12:39:13 AM

No sorry I sold them on BB to some another Pal who still believed in those "guarding" poeple at
bitcoinfoundation....but still BTC is worthless in the hand of crooks...you´ll see soon enough bottom 74
dollars !

we will see 74 USD/BTC if the 2011 scenario plays out

but that is fine with me
2011 was my lucky year
especially after I jumped on to the train @ 3 USD/BTC

There is almost NO chance that the 2011 scenario will play out. This is NOT 2011... Lot's has happened with BTC since 2011.. I will concede, that maybe, just maybe, we may make it into the lower $400s - but only if some additional bad news drops...

Based on what we currently know, the furthest that we are going down would be upper $400s, and we may NOT even make it down that far - since there is quite a bit of pent-up desire to put money into BTC.

Quote from: zyk on March 01, 2014, 12:52:57 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 12:43:19 AM

Quote from: Richy_T on February 28, 2014, 10:46:22 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on February 28, 2014, 10:42:58 AM

Am i really the only one who is concerned that Bitcoin hasn't responded to ANY good news in MONTHS?
People dump every single time there is some bad news. Often it isn't even bad news but more like "i'm gonna panic sell in case it us bad news". We go lower and lower. Now we're at 570. There will be good news. Nobody will give a shit. They're all waiting for the next bad news so we can go lower again.
We would need to most amazing super positive news ever to stop this and i don't see this coming.

So give me one reason why we could go up again. I can't find any. I really can't.

Edit: how much longer will we be going down because of Gox. They are gone. Will it take us down for months to come? Can't people just get over it?

Maybe someone has been quietly liquidating 750k coins

I AM also thinking that the liquidating of BTC has been going on for months...

Quote from: zyk on February 28, 2014, 11:46:56 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on February 28, 2014, 11:40:21 PM

Quote from: fonzie on February 28, 2014, 11:35:33 PM

Last hope for Bitcoin: fake buywalls

THEY WON`T PROTECT YOU!!

Their only purpose is to lure suckers in to place their bids above them, when enough bids
have been built, we will get a level lower. slow and painful

There is no such thing as "fake" walls. Wink

Quote from: Walsoraj on November 05, 2013, 02:20:39 AM

Quote from: mccorvic on November 05, 2013, 02:18:46 AM

Aren't walls always fake? If I've learned anything from my years in bitcoins, it's that all walls everywhere are fake.

Walls are simultaneously fake and real, until observed. Then they become one or the other, depending on the testing conditions.

This is called Quantum Speculation. It's science, bro.

No its game - theory or called common sense...you are either with us or against us Wink

I think that it is called leveraging what you have to your best advantage (to the advantage of yourself personally... and damn the rest) There is no brotherhood... unless you form some kind of team/pool to accomplish an objective for the members on the team as a unit.

No..if the aim of bitcoincommunity is to collude to fuck the newbies and each other over...then BTC is no alternative as a currency its a chain-letter....if there is not the revolutionary common aim to enthrone the powers that be by forming a money-supply that is guarded by trust then we are dealing in sour lemons and
and the dollar kills on!

I agree with you about some common desires of the bitcoin community to change the way systems work... etc etc.. but those kinds of lofty goals do NOT need to apply to the concept of the exchanges... except maybe to the extent that there may be system put in place that only allows a certain amount of exchange at any one time or something like that... during the phase that BTC is less than a 100billion dollar market cap, it is going to be fairly easy to manipulate... even gold with a 6.5 trillion dollar market cap is manipulated... ...

Quote from: hdbuck on March 01, 2014, 12:59:23 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 12:49:38 AM

Quote from: aminorex on February 28, 2014, 11:50:45 PM

Quote from: sonofliberty on February 28, 2014, 11:47:08 PM

You know the market is bearish when...

so true. i just wish there were more honest bears, worthy of respect. so often the "theses" of "bears" is fabricated, predicated on disinformation, or pure FUD. it makes it very hard to find actual, useful, bearish analysis. in fact, i have developed an unfortunate bullish myopia by being innoculated against strong bearish cases by the myriad of weak bearish cases. i have to constantly correct for my own bull blinders.

VERY well stated.... many of these bears are spreading disinformation and have their heads stuck up some asses.. maybe even their own... Sometimes what is curious to me, is why they are hanging around these forums... just get out of bitcoin and go on your marry way... rather than educating guys who are more educated about bitcoin and/or other cryptos...

NONETHELESS, I do NOT claim to be any expert... yet frequently I can tell when I am being hoodwinked...

lmao bud, without any disrespect i advice you to be very careful with whom you tend to believe in here. Being a bear doesnt necessarily means you dont believe in Bitcoin. Its a very harsh world that one of money and be sure they'll ever be heists and deception. Better be skeptical and pragmatic. If not realistic.

I have NO intention to take sides in some kind of internal or personal battle... I was merely in agreement with Aminorex... b/c I have run into very similar dynamics in other cryptocurrency discussions and also in other political discussions... I am NO spring chicken when it comes to these kinds of discussions.

Although an interesting thing that I find about bitcoin is some of the crossing of the political lines... so the dynamic remains interesting... even with my own exploration of my own beliefs... for example, I do NOT really have problem with government, except to the extent that it is manipulated by big money... yet there are a lot of libertarians in the bitcoin community... and ultimately lines cross and these matters remain complicated and contradictory.. ....

Quote from: hdbuck on March 01, 2014, 01:11:56 AM

in case you've missed it...

Quote from: siulynot on March 01, 2014, 12:28:38 AM

Good night people! Grin

This must mean that you are a bear... NO? or that Bears are winning.. or some other crazy thing like that... ?

Quote from: Solarstorm75 on March 01, 2014, 01:55:01 AM

We are in a bull market, if you can honestly recommend your beloved grandma to invest her savings. Otherwise it's pure gambling and everybody should take the risk of losses.

WE can still be in a bull market without getting grandma involved....

Quote from: tailor on March 01, 2014, 02:21:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 01:48:02 AM

... since there is quite a bit of pent-up desire to put money into BTC.

Based on?

Based on approximate three months of various uncertainties in the China ban situation that took us from early December into late January and then the Mt. Gox situation through the month of February.... .... and also based on the fact that the BTC network has been expanding, growing and developing during this time while investors have been waiting on the side-lines b/c of the uncertainties... that is my sense of the situation... and my sense that as soon as some of these uncertainties are resolved.. which they seem to have been largely resolved, we are going moon-ish... or at least suborbital moon into the $750 to $850 range first.. and then into the $1500 range... absent some further impediments.....

Do you have a different sense of the current situation?

Quote from: surfer43 on March 01, 2014, 02:52:00 AM

Whoever predicted a gradual drop appears to be,right so far...

gradual drop until when, though? through the weekend... then spurt to the moon.... . and how far is this drop going to go? To $520 or lower than that?

Quote from: surfer43 on March 01, 2014, 03:02:10 AM

I'm buying in when we go below 350. But only if I don't become more bearish by then...

Sorry, then you are going to be left behind.. b/c we are NOT going below $450...

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on March 01, 2014, 03:08:28 AM

I'm bearish because this Gox crap is going to grind on and on and on.

Gox has been sufficiently resolved... at least the range of issues is narrowed... surely GOX matters will drag on but the GOX situation is kind of contained now that the exchange is closed.. and we have the bancrupcy filing which gives us an explanation of what had occurred. Surely the bancruptcy explanation is insufficient and filled with inconsistencies (and likely outright lies), but those statements of facts and the various effects on investors is NOT going to be sufficiently negative to hold back the pent up demand to go up with BTC prices which upward movement will likely take place beginning about next week, if NOT sooner...

Quote from: tailor on March 01, 2014, 06:48:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 02:28:55 AM

Based on approximate three months of various uncertainties in the China ban situation that took us from early December into late January and then the Mt. Gox situation through the month of February.... .... and also based on the fact that the BTC network has been expanding, growing and developing during this time while investors have been waiting on the side-lines b/c of the uncertainties... that is my sense of the situation... and my sense that as soon as some of these uncertainties are resolved.. which they seem to have been largely resolved, we are going moon-ish... or at least suborbital moon into the $750 to $850 range first.. and then into the $1500 range... absent some further impediments.....

Do you have a different sense of the current situation?

My sense is that nobody has a clue what's going to happen, and that looking at the same set of facts most predictions will tend to align with the wishes of the person making the prediction.

That is way to fantastical to think that we all live in fantasy worlds.. with our own sense of reality that is NOT really based in reality.... I do NOT see the world like that.

There are people who are long term investors of bitcoin and there are day traders..... Additionally, there are people who abstain from investing in bitcoin... I happen to be one of many persons who is bullish on bitcoin, and personally, i am investing in bitcoin based on my sense that bitcoin is going to go up in value and price.... this has very little to do with what i want or wish or whatever is in my head... it has to do with a prediction... based on objective facts... and also how I think things are going to play out... Certainly, I am NOT an insider or a technical person; however, i have looked into some of the dynamics and read various bitcoin informational sources.

My sense of the direction of bitcoin has more to do with what I have studied and what I predict will be the direction...

Of course, I may be wrong in my prediction..... frequently, there are winners and losers when it comes to investments... or even part winners and/or part losers... depending upon how much the person has to invest and timing and maybe even some luck or even questions about whether a person who is interested in investing has means to make such an investment allocation.

I do NOT buy that the world is just made up of a bunch of people wishing whatever they want...

Quote from: gizmoh on March 01, 2014, 08:35:30 AM

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/

"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "

So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins! Roll Eyes

Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up..

WE are going up long before any Mt. Gox pay outs play out...

We are going up within the next week... we may go down before up... though.... maybe down to the lower $500s area... or maybe at most down to the upper $400s.. just quickly... .. I am questioning whether we are going to go DOWN any more than what we already have.. below... the $550 range..

Quote from: NEMcoin on March 01, 2014, 11:12:08 AM

http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/28/the-gox-crater-crowd-detectives-reveal-billion-dollar-heist-as-inside-job/

Quote

Who took the money?
So, the trillion-dollar question: who took the money? Strictly speaking, we don’t know that yet. We’re talking about a sum of money so large that “humongous” and “enormous” aren’t sufficient to describe it – it’s 6% of all bitcoin in existence, and assuming bitcoin keeps growing to its potential, that means one individual is sitting on 6% of the world’s future trade and retail currency supply. In today’s USD value, such an amount would be on the order of 20 trillion US dollars, or roughly 250 times the fortune of today’s richest billionaire. It’s not exactly hard to see a motive here.

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

I agree that we should be a little bearish.. at least for a week or two ... b/c of this news... HOWEVER.... BTC prices have remained extremely resilient to this news... which causes me to continue to assert that there is considerable pent up demand for BTC....

Regarding the point about this seemingly probably heist (based on GOX's own renditions of the situation) is humongous and enormous, this surely is NOT as humongous and enormous as it is being made out to be in the above post......

The reality is that we still live in largely a fiat world... and in terms of overall world scandals, this one is NOT very high in the whole scheme of things... even if it adds up to more than $500 million dollars in current value.... ...

NONETHELESS, i get and probably even agree with the point that BTC is going to go up and probably double in value within the next six months to a year... accordingly, this seems to be heist... is going to add up to more than a billion in about a year... BTC prices are going to be going up.. even with 6% heist of the coins... YET ... we are still a bit unclear about whether the gangsters are going to be able to profit from the coins.. The most plausible scenarios remains that the gangsters are probably going to be able to profit from their heist of these 750K -ish of BTC...

Quote from: GreekGeek on March 01, 2014, 11:25:48 AM

Quote from: NEMcoin on March 01, 2014, 11:12:08 AM

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way down (similar to 2011)

I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again

currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero

YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish...

likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena...

Quote from: Hawkix on March 01, 2014, 11:43:59 AM

After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.

Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.

AH HA!!!!!! The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!...... The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas......

Quote from: nakaone on March 01, 2014, 11:55:48 AM

for me there are two legitimate options regarding the "unavailable" coins

1) confiscation by some authority (most likely after all the stuff i read) - short and long term extremely bullish

2) he lost the private keys (even thogh supply is much shorter that is extremely bearish due to the public picture that even the oldest exchange cannot handle the technical issues around the currency, how should average joe do that?)

and one option that does not make sense

3) 840k (!) coins are stolen (without noticing), that is almost 1000 coins per day since the time mtgox is operating

There are probably some other variations here.... HOWEVER out of the variations that you describe, it does seem number 1 is the most likely..... .. but there could be some variation or combination of 1 and 3... ... or like some of the fiasco situations that are described in which there is a partial loss that was back in 2011... and then GOX et al... gamble and lose with investor's BTC b/c they are in fiat at times, such as november 2013... when BTC prices are doubling and tripling...

Quote from: tailor on March 01, 2014, 02:54:39 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 10:25:48 AM

Quote from: tailor on March 01, 2014, 06:48:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 02:28:55 AM

Based on approximate three months of various uncertainties in the China ban situation that took us from early December into late January and then the Mt. Gox situation through the month of February.... .... and also based on the fact that the BTC network has been expanding, growing and developing during this time while investors have been waiting on the side-lines b/c of the uncertainties... that is my sense of the situation... and my sense that as soon as some of these uncertainties are resolved.. which they seem to have been largely resolved, we are going moon-ish... or at least suborbital moon into the $750 to $850 range first.. and then into the $1500 range... absent some further impediments.....

Do you have a different sense of the current situation?

My sense is that nobody has a clue what's going to happen, and that looking at the same set of facts most predictions will tend to align with the wishes of the person making the prediction.

That is way to fantastical to think that we all live in fantasy worlds.. with our own sense of reality that is NOT really based in reality. I do NOT see the world like that. ... I do NOT buy that the world is just made up of a bunch of people wishing whatever they want.

What's fantastical about the observation that predictions align with wishes? Unless you've got a fantastical crystal ball you can't know what's going to happen. I'm merely pointing out that a set of facts or rumour will be interpreted many ways, and people on these message boards will usually interpret them to support their wants. The MTGox news is the just the latest example: bulls see it as bullish in the long run, bears see it as bearish.

It's not fantasy, it's just observing the bias we all have.

IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... ..

It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified... People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect... but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be... ..

Quote from: ChrisML on March 01, 2014, 04:35:39 PM

I've seen many posts and threads about price speculations and hitting 5k per coin.

Now, to try and stay a little bit on-topic:

What are these speculations based on? Althought, I'd say hell yes to BTC being worth $5000,- per coin but I can't really see this happen.
And no, the reason why I can't see this happen is not about the drama caused by Gox.

Is anyone here able to clarify this?

IT is fairly easy to advance beyond $5000 per BTC.. based on market cap and based on BTC taking over some of the functionality of gold or any currency... for example gold has more than a 6.5 trillion dollar market cap and the dollar more than 15 trillion market cap... anyhow there are a lot of currencies that BTC could serve b/c there are 190 countries.. even the international transmittal system has a lot of potential for BTC to take on some of that value.. or the stock market.. etc etc..

ONCE BTC takes on some of this value, its market cap will increase from currently 7 billion to.... whatever amount... IN order to reach $5000 per BTC, the BTC market cap only need to rise to about 90Billion... which is NOT a very high target if it takes on some of these values.

Quote from: zyk on March 01, 2014, 05:15:47 PM

Quote from: yrtrnc on March 01, 2014, 05:11:34 PM

Quote from: aminorex on March 01, 2014, 05:05:55 PM

Quote from: Amechan on March 01, 2014, 02:47:17 PM

People often joke that "America has the worst form of government on the planet except for all the others." It ain't perfect.

And it certainly isn't better than all the others. It has strengths and weaknesses in comparison to other large nation-states, and those are a matter of taste. There are small nation-states which have systems which are vastly preferable to the U.S. system, in my opinion, but they are generally special cases. Iceland is not too bad. Norway is fairly tolerable. I could almost stand Scotland. Singapore is rather decent. Chile, quite nice. Conceivably Paraguay. But then I've not lived there long enough to see the worst aspects, to judge how deeply they disturb me.

We should get together and buy an island with bitcoins, call it Satoshi Island and have the currency as BTC of course, use the bitcoin protocol to vote trade etc.. and live happily ever after.

+1

Lets use Litecoin as BTC would give the foundation to much a hold on the nascent state of the free Wink

And BTC is already bought up by the ukraniens Wink

ARE there going to be any girls on this fictional? OR just a bunch of techie and nerdy guys? HEHEHEHE

Quote from: Yololintian on March 01, 2014, 08:04:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 07:33:57 PM

Quote from: GreekGeek on March 01, 2014, 11:25:48 AM

Quote from: NEMcoin on March 01, 2014, 11:12:08 AM

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way down (similar to 2011)

I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again

currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero

YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish...

likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena...

Quote from: Hawkix on March 01, 2014, 11:43:59 AM

After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.

Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.

AH HA!!!!!! The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!...... The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas......

No, you are too bullish to be taken seriously. We will not be hitting 750-850 in 2 weeks.

My described scenario is much more likely to occur than BTC hitting double digits.. that is truly a pie in the sky prediction that is RIDICULOUS.....

So, anyhow, based on the news currently in front of us.. and NO dramatically new developments NOT inferred from the current news, I predict that it is much more likely that we will hit the $750 to $850 range than to hit anywhere below $450 (except for some possible flash crash). If we hit anywhere below $450, it is NOT likely to be sustained more than 4 hours. True that the $750 price point may NOT be sustained in the next couple of weeks... but in the next couple of months or so, we are likely to be sustaining more than $750 .. and likely higher than that BTC price points.

Let's revisit this topic in May or June 2014, and I bet we are closer to $750 than we are to $450... and really not much chance of double digits any time in between.. absent NEWS that was NOT anticipated on this date.. ... maybe .01% chance of reaching BTC double digits?

Surely, I am speculating as well.. and I am also betting my money accordingly into BTC on my expectations...

Quote from: tailor on March 01, 2014, 08:09:14 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 07:51:30 PM

IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... ..

It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified... People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect... but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be... ..

The reality is people far underestimate their own biases in their thinking. People may be informed, but how they use the information will be affected by their biases. We all filter information, and tend to dismiss or undervalue information that doesn't support our theories, and overvalue information that does. It's human nature.

Surely, there is some truth in what you are saying... but personally, I am of the opinion that you give way too much weight within your characterization of what you are thinking motivates people... ...

So maybe we disagree only regarding matter of degree rather than the fact that some of this dynamic exists...

Also, I agree that some people may NOT recognize the extent to which they are biased in some regards - but generally people are a lot more aware than you appear to be giving credit... ...

Quote from: dreamspark on March 01, 2014, 08:16:43 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 07:51:30 PM

IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... ..

It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified... People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect... but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be... ..

Your caps key keeps getting stuck, I think you should get it checked out. Oh and the full stop key as well.

YOU seem to be getting distracted by style over substance... .MAYBE, it is just something that you feel comfortable? I would agree with any assertion that style can help to bring emphasis to the substance.. and accordingly, most of my style is on purpose in order to emphasize certain points. However, sometimes, postings may be typed quickly, and the style may be somewhat unintended.

Quote from: podyx on March 01, 2014, 09:29:55 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 09:13:55 PM

Quote from: ChrisML on March 01, 2014, 04:35:39 PM

I've seen many posts and threads about price speculations and hitting 5k per coin.

Now, to try and stay a little bit on-topic:

What are these speculations based on? Althought, I'd say hell yes to BTC being worth $5000,- per coin but I can't really see this happen.
And no, the reason why I can't see this happen is not about the drama caused by Gox.

Is anyone here able to clarify this?

IT is fairly easy to advance beyond $5000 per BTC.. based on market cap and based on BTC taking over some of the functionality of gold or any currency... for example gold has more than a 6.5 trillion dollar market cap and the dollar more than 15 trillion market cap... anyhow there are a lot of currencies that BTC could serve b/c there are 190 countries.. even the international transmittal system has a lot of potential for BTC to take on some of that value.. or the stock market.. etc etc..

ONCE BTC takes on some of this value, its market cap will increase from currently 7 billion to.... whatever amount... IN order to reach $5000 per BTC, the BTC market cap only need to rise to about 90Billion... which is NOT a very high target if it takes on some of these values.

actually theres probably less then 1 million bitcoin for sale under $5k so it would need less then 10 billion

I am NOT sure whether I understand your point completely...

For example, we know that gold does NOT really circulate very much... but it fluctuates in price based on perceived value and also that it is considered to be a inflationary hedge and good storage of value..

If you are saying that the amount of BTC in circulation is going to affect how it is priced, I agree with your general sentiment, that the hoarding factor (I don't really like that word, hoarding) is going to cause BTC prices to go up additionally b/c it will cause a demand for BTC b/c of the shortage and b/c people are generally wanting to keep some of their assets in BTC..

For example, for the money transmittal feature of BTC or for various purchases that are being made with BTC, there will be a need for BTC to carry out the transmission of the money or for the purchase..

Let's say that there is a certain amount of BTC circulating 1 million.. as you stated, then those million BTC are used to conduct a multitude of transactions.. , but also people begin to believe that BTC is a valuable asset to hang on to. Accordingly, people may still spend quite a bit in BTC; however, those people will also have an incentive to replace their stored BTC as soon as possible b/c they understand that BTC holds its value well, relative to other assets.

Quote from: Wyld on March 01, 2014, 10:04:38 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 09:58:07 PM

YOU seem to be getting distracted by style over substance... .MAYBE, it is just something that you feel comfortable? I would agree with any assertion that style can help to bring emphasis to the substance.. and accordingly, most of my style is on purpose in order to emphasize certain points. However, sometimes, postings may be typed quickly, and the style may be somewhat unintended.

Christopher Walken, it's great to have you on board with Bitcoin.

What is the point about Walken?

Can you explain?

I looked up Walken, and surely I cannot figure out the reference.

Quote from: bitdig on March 01, 2014, 10:52:33 PM

After Gox is gone, to get to $800 or to $400 we need less coins, as far as those 750k coins are out from trading, in other words support levels are much thinner in both ways.... It will be easier to manipulate the price now...
I expect much higher volatility from what we are used...
And current price is relatively high, as far as we got here thanks for Gox speculations and China, the only thing that holds us here is a memory that "this is cheap", but actually now, it is not cheap, relatively small dump of coins will get us down, back, when Gox was alive this dump wouldn't get us that low as we could "visit" these days....

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 09:50:44 PM

Quote from: Yololintian on March 01, 2014, 08:04:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 07:33:57 PM

Quote from: GreekGeek on March 01, 2014, 11:25:48 AM

Quote from: NEMcoin on March 01, 2014, 11:12:08 AM

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way down (similar to 2011)

I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again

currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero

YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish...

likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena...

Quote from: Hawkix on March 01, 2014, 11:43:59 AM

After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.

Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.

AH HA!!!!!! The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!...... The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas......

No, you are too bullish to be taken seriously. We will not be hitting 750-850 in 2 weeks.

My described scenario is much more likely to occur than BTC hitting double digits.. that is truly a pie in the sky prediction that is RIDICULOUS.....

So, anyhow, based on the news currently in front of us.. and NO dramatically new developments NOT inferred from the current news, I predict that it is much more likely that we will hit the $750 to $850 range than to hit anywhere below $450 (except for some possible flash crash). If we hit anywhere below $450, it is NOT likely to be sustained more than 4 hours. True that the $750 price point may NOT be sustained in the next couple of weeks... but in the next couple of months or so, we are likely to be sustaining more than $750 .. and likely higher than that BTC price points.

Let's revisit this topic in May or June 2014, and I bet we are closer to $750 than we are to $450... and really not much chance of double digits any time in between.. absent NEWS that was NOT anticipated on this date.. ... maybe .01% chance of reaching BTC double digits?

Surely, I am speculating as well.. and I am also betting my money accordingly into BTC on my expectations...

I think that you make some very good points, especially regarding a potential for volatility in the event that there is actually less capital invested and/or circulating in the exchanges. Nonetheless, I remain uncertain about whether the scenario is going to play out in the way in which you describe. At this point, it remains unclear about whether the 750K-ish GOX coins have already been introduced into the overall bitcoin circulation.

On the other hand, we have a large number of institutional investors that have likely been chomping at the bits to get into bitcoin; however, they have been holding off in their getting in based on December/January uncertainties about the status of China... and then February concerns about Mt. Gox..... NOW, the China situation seems to be more clear and the Gox situation is somewhat clarified and contained (and I would suggest sufficiently clarified and contained - even though NOT completely clarified b/c some of the story still does NOT quite add up).

In that regard, I stick to my guns with my earlier prediction of more likely moving towards the $750-$850 direction - and I remain betting my fiat into BTC accordingly - though of course, I have NO real insider information besides what I read in various parts of the BTC community.

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 01, 2014, 10:56:57 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 10:23:46 PM

Quote from: Wyld on March 01, 2014, 10:04:38 PM

Christopher Walken, it's great to have you on board with Bitcoin.

What is the point about Walken? Can you explain? I looked up Walken, and surely I cannot figure out the reference.

More cowbell!
(Walken talks erratically. You type erratically)

Yeah, right... a little humor can't hurt.... and thanks for a possible explanation...

Quote from: yrtrnc on March 01, 2014, 11:00:41 PM

Fun facts, did you know that you can only set a max selling price of 3200 usd per btc on btc-e..

Does this mean that BTC will NEVER go beyond $3,200? interesting!

Quote from: mellowyellow on March 02, 2014, 04:00:07 PM

Quote from: mmitech on March 02, 2014, 03:54:40 PM

Quote from: mellowyellow on March 02, 2014, 03:42:27 PM

Mark my words, a large whale buy is coming, this will spark a rally similar to the rally after the china crash. There's are many traders waiting to buy back in who are hoping this isn't the bottom yet but have their fingers on the trigger, look at the order book on Bitstamp, buyers far outweigh sellers. There are also many ex gox customers who need to buy back in. Don't get left behind, when it happens, it will happen quickly.

I expect 820 within 7 days, if not more.

less than 50K till 200 that is what in bitstamp order book at the moment, and there is only bitstamp and btc-e for trading now, BTC-e have a very tinny book order, you could bring the price to 0 with 10K dump on BTC-e, dont forget that there is 12 million bitcoin on existence, that 50K against the 12M is nothing .

and also if bidders would think that the price at 560 or at 600 is reasonable they would place their orders there, but I see only 9K bitcoin to 500 and 20K to 400 and 35 to 300 and most down less than 200, people base their bids based on what they think bitcoin is worth, and the same works for sellers, they put sell orders on what they think their bitcoins are worth, but at the moment buyers are not voting for $560.

IMHO there is no whale that would pump the price just like that, if someone decided to buy 10K bitcoin at a market order, then there is only 3 scenarios: a) pump and dump b) insider trading c) someone who doesn't give a fuck about his money and don't care about buying at 100 or 1000 which means he is not a whale but rather an idiot.

You are only talking about the buy end, there are only 18k for sale up to $1000 at Bitstamp, and only 21.28k to $5000.

Probably the only way to get a small market reaction is to buy in increments of less than 10 BTC at a time... especially during these low volume times otherwise, even trying to buy 50BTC at a time is likely going to cause upward price momentum.

Investors are NOT buying at the moment b/c everyone is waiting for another change... but there is definitely a lot of fiat ready to jump into BTC.. .

Quote from: mmitech on March 02, 2014, 06:23:54 PM

Bitcoin do it already, I don't have time and nerves to wait the whole day, do something already....

BTW watching bitstamp for some time now, bids are going lower, less than 4458 to bring us below $520

I hope so too ... to get to the below $520-ish territory..... but I anticipate.. based on the resistance to go downward that this downward adjustment is likely NOT going to last much beyond few hours...

Quote from: mapsi on March 02, 2014, 08:04:14 PM

i dont see us going anywhere but down in movement short term. And I hope and pray that we dont lose another exchange, say for example btc-e. If this happens it is a wrap for btc.

First: the end of another exchange would NOT be the end of bitcoin.. Bitcoin is going to survive in spite of the potential and even the incidences of fraud and/or corruption in various places within (EG seemingly GOX and Silkroad 2 - though silkroad 2 has been much more transparent than GOX regarding that supposed loss of coins )....

Second: At this time, there is NO real and/or material evidence that any other exchanges have been engaged in fractional reserve banking or stealing money or security breaches at any level near what seems to have happened with GOX. And, if audits do take place, and some of these problems exist (which is likely), there is NO evidence that the "problems" are at any level near the GOX situation.

Third: the trillion dollar question is whether we go up or down from here... and it does seem, based on the current state of negative news and the impact that negative news has had on the BTC prices, that if there is going to be additional downward movement in BTC prices then that it is likely to be in the next few days.... b/c the longer that this fair stability takes place, the more likely that on-the-sideline investors are just going to jump in at these current prices and there will be a snowballing effect with additional sideline money coming in. At that point, likely within less than the next two weeks, we will be heading upward with little likelihood to return to these current prices in the $500s - except for possible short bursts of flash crashes... from time to time, which seems inevitable with BTC until such time as the market cap gets into a respectably higher level such as above $50 billion ... which is likely NOT too far off into the future... which is very possible to occur before the end of 2014.

By the way, a $50 billion market cap on bitcoin would take BTC to around $3500 per BTC... or $3.50 per milibit. This does seem like a lot, and it does seem too good to be true.. and/or pie in the sky. But a $50 billion market cap is only a tiny fraction of bitcoin's potential - in terms of money transmittal, storage of value and currency capabilities.

Quote from: EuroTrash on March 02, 2014, 09:35:06 PM

Quote from: MoreFun on March 02, 2014, 09:32:48 PM

Quote from: EuroTrash on March 02, 2014, 09:29:14 PM

Volume has gone silent and frequency of posts in this forum too; that in itself is a sign of depression times.

Someone put a little ask wall of 200 coins at 160.5 and it was fully bought into.

Wasn't bought, he mostly pulled it. He is playing some game / bot.

I wonder whether he was testing if 560 is some sort of ghost bid wall or if he is trying to get upwards momentum before dumping?

I think they put the wall there.. to attempt to force the prices down to make it appear that there is more people willing to sell than actually exist.... but he does NOT want to sell at that price b/c he would likely lose his ass when the price goes up... he is just trying to force the sale of BTC by others.. NOT by him

Quote from: KFR on March 02, 2014, 10:54:04 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 02, 2014, 10:43:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 02, 2014, 08:38:12 PM

Second: At this time, there is NO real and/or material evidence that any other exchanges have been engaged in fractional reserve banking or stealing money or security breaches at any level near what seems to have happened with GOX. And, if audits do take place, and some of these problems exist (which is likely), there is NO evidence that the "problems" are at any level near the GOX situation.

Well... none of the other exchanges has volunteered to give even a rough idea of their financial position, especially how many BTC they owe and how many BTC they own.

I count that as "real and material" evidence that they must be in some sort of Karpelian situation themselves. Grin

Just not true. Serious academics shouldn't make such statements - baseless assumptions that a couple of minutes of research would completely debunk.

http://antonopoulos.com/2014/02/25/coinbase-review/
http://blog.coinkite.com/post/77699705732/updated-audit-report-transparency-and
etc.

Personally, I would NOT be surprised if there are many discrepancies in various exchanges; however, at this point we would be engaged in a high level of speculation to assume that any discrepancies in other exchanges (such as Bitstamp or BTC-e) rise anywhere near the GOX level of incompetency and/or fraud.

Quote from: oda.krell on March 03, 2014, 11:02:02 AM

Quote from: TERA on March 03, 2014, 10:49:07 AM

Quote from: tarmi on March 03, 2014, 10:45:38 AM

Quote from: TERA on March 03, 2014, 10:30:33 AM

Quote from: hdbuck on March 03, 2014, 10:29:37 AM

Who panic bought?? Grin

I didn't panic buy; I made the preplanned decision to buy when the downtrend broke.

wow, for 3 days nobody dumps at 550 $, and thats a downtrend broke.

so naive to think that.

This is exactly what I thought during the recovery in 2013. "It's only going up because nobody is dumping". All the way from $66 to $200. I have told myself many times now to ignore that thought. The lack of dumping indicates some change in supply in the background which you can't understand.

Said it more than once, I'm still quite skeptical we broke the February downtrend, but the signs are there to at least give us a fighting chance.

That said, the lack of dumps so far isn't much of a point... during the early 2013 bubble/pop cycle, the reversal arguably started on July 7. Took until July 18 until some whale decided it's time to get out. So there's easily a bit of a lag possible. (btw, whatever that whale was doing, he never got a chance to buy back cheaper. he/she either cashed out, or bought back higher later on)

That is part of the problem. We are NO longer 2013... and overall, I get the sense that there is more confidence in bitcoin and the overall network... if we do NOT get a crash, soon.. then likely we are NOT going to see mid-$500 prices again... (absent some flash crash)

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on March 03, 2014, 11:04:06 AM

Don't you worry we will see 570 coins again. And more.

HOW much more? Maybe $510? And, when? I am waiting and biting at the chomps for such.

Quote from: CryptoFuture on March 03, 2014, 11:44:02 AM

We still going up or was that just a tease?

Dont be posting pics like that... It's too distracting

NOT

Quote from: mellowyellow on March 03, 2014, 09:30:15 PM

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 03, 2014, 09:25:35 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 03, 2014, 09:19:35 PM

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 03, 2014, 09:17:02 PM

Why did hackers stole 750.000 Bitcoins only from MTgox and did not touch any other exchanges?

What is Karpeles doing at the moment? Can he get out of Japan or is he "arrested" to Japan?

Does somebody know this?

I´m still sure Karpeles stole that coins and say hackers did that. Can he go to jail for the insolvency? or is it really so easy to open up an exchange, let people invest millions and then shut it down? I mean, easy way to get rich!?

They stole bitcoin to buy more dogecoin.

Karp is swimming in dogecoins. We all know this.

Yes, it is easy to build an exchange and steal from customers. I can build you an exchange for the low price of 10,000btc. I know that sounds like a lot, but think about how much you will make over time. Srsly

Never watched the dogecoin charts and I´m not sure if you are serious about this or not!?

I and a lot of people have coins on stamp too and I´m worried that stamp could do the same as gox some day. Even though they are at a leading position at the moment.

You guys seriously think another exchange could have the same problems as Gox? It's coming out now that it was well known Mark was neglecting the code. He had plenty of warnings from people who know what they are talking about. Also, Gox has been sending out a warning beacon since November when fiat withdrawals problems were getting out of control, you will see the same signs with another exchange too. Learn from your mistakes, don't wish the same misfortune on other people.

The most plausible stories about what happened includes MK knowingly trying to drag this thing out since about 2011.. hoping that he would earn back coins that he had lost in 2011 (nearly 1 million coins).

Accordingly, by the time late 2013 came, MK was utilizing bots and self-dealing with investor coins and well manipulating the whole situation in order to attempt to recover lost coins from 2011.. that he was NEVER able to make up.

Quote from: zyk on March 03, 2014, 10:30:41 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 03, 2014, 10:02:42 PM

Quote from: mellowyellow on March 03, 2014, 09:30:15 PM

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 03, 2014, 09:25:35 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 03, 2014, 09:19:35 PM

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 03, 2014, 09:17:02 PM

Why did hackers stole 750.000 Bitcoins only from MTgox and did not touch any other exchanges?

What is Karpeles doing at the moment? Can he get out of Japan or is he "arrested" to Japan?

Does somebody know this?

I´m still sure Karpeles stole that coins and say hackers did that. Can he go to jail for the insolvency? or is it really so easy to open up an exchange, let people invest millions and then shut it down? I mean, easy way to get rich!?

They stole bitcoin to buy more dogecoin.

Karp is swimming in dogecoins. We all know this.

Yes, it is easy to build an exchange and steal from customers. I can build you an exchange for the low price of 10,000btc. I know that sounds like a lot, but think about how much you will make over time. Srsly

Never watched the dogecoin charts and I´m not sure if you are serious about this or not!?

I and a lot of people have coins on stamp too and I´m worried that stamp could do the same as gox some day. Even though they are at a leading position at the moment.

You guys seriously think another exchange could have the same problems as Gox? It's coming out now that it was well known Mark was neglecting the code. He had plenty of warnings from people who know what they are talking about. Also, Gox has been sending out a warning beacon since November when fiat withdrawals problems were getting out of control, you will see the same signs with another exchange too. Learn from your mistakes, don't wish the same misfortune on other people.

The most plausible stories about what happened includes MK knowingly trying to drag this thing out since about 2011.. hoping that he would earn back coins that he had lost in 2011 (nearly 1 million coins).

Accordingly, by the time late 2013 came, MK was utilizing bots and self-dealing with investor coins and well manipulating the whole situation in order to attempt to recover lost coins from 2011.. that he was NEVER able to make up.

OMG..yep very unluckily the poor guy even couldn´t make his pockets whole by halting withdrawls and accepting millions of deposits cause the bug would be fixed in no time....

even TBF said so while selling and the dollars went off-shore! DUDE your plausabilities suck big time

Yes, I provided a rendition of what seems plausible at the moment. What's your rendition, and why would your rendition be more plausible.. do you have some better facts? or better inferences ... surely over time, a story is going to develop, which may or may NOT be the whole truth about what actually happened..

Quote from: byronbb on March 04, 2014, 12:50:48 AM

This rally will have some legs imo. 800k bitcoins need to be replaced.....

Your assertion does NOT make a lot of sense.

Possibly, a portion of those 800k coins have already been absorbed in the market. And, do you really believe that the various holders of 800k of Bitcoins (who got burnt) are going to replace those coins? Maybe 25% of them will, maybe.... but when would that happen? in the next few weeks?

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 04, 2014, 12:52:18 AM

I´m all in BTC, lets go down now like always :|

I'm about 95% in bitcoin... I had been hoping for another downswing... which does NOT seem too likely.. maybe we might get down as low as $650? Maybe? Seeming less and less likely, though.

Quote from: keithers on March 04, 2014, 02:13:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 04, 2014, 02:03:06 AM

Quote from: byronbb on March 04, 2014, 12:50:48 AM

This rally will have some legs imo. 800k bitcoins need to be replaced.....

Your assertion does NOT make a lot of sense.

Possibly, a portion of those 800k coins have already been absorbed in the market. And, do you really believe that the various holders of 800k of Bitcoins (who got burnt) are going to replace those coins? Maybe 25% of them will, maybe.... but when would that happen? in the next few weeks?

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 04, 2014, 12:52:18 AM

I´m all in BTC, lets go down now like always :|

I'm about 95% in bitcoin... I had been hoping for another downswing... which does NOT seem too likely.. maybe we might get down as low as $650? Maybe? Seeming less and less likely, though.

I can say with almost certainty that we will see $650 again, as we are not even very far above that level now. I am bullish long term on bitcoin for sure, but we definitely have a lot of ups and downs still ahead of us. There will definitely still be some flash crashes in our future (even if they last only a few minutes/hours)....

We would see $650 if someone dumped off about 1500btc right now...

I was really hoping for $510 because last week I sold a small portion of BTC (2) at $525. We continued to drop to $530, but never got to a point that I could profit from that $525 sale.. I took my chance that we would possibly get another price drop, but it never came and NOW it is looking unlikely.

I bought 1 BTC back in at $635. NOW, the best (absent some flash crashes) that we can expect is lower $600s.... I would rather buy back in at a loss (maybe .6BTC), than to miss the trip to the moon... which is likely initially to the $750 to $850 range (in the next week or two), prior to departing to the $1,500 range (in the next 6 months).

Quote from: Tyson95 on March 04, 2014, 03:35:38 AM

Bitcoin mentioned in Almost Human again tonight, expect moon X2

define moon....... how much and when, approximately?

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on March 04, 2014, 04:11:59 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 04, 2014, 02:16:16 AM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 04, 2014, 02:08:03 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 04, 2014, 12:16:32 AM

So, is there a consensus about what caused todays sudden price increase

The world is in love with Bitcoin and most realize it is a great value?

All of a sudden, like that?

A new perfume perhaps?

No. We simply bounced off the bottom of the exponential growth adoption trend that underlies the price rises to date.

Nothing unusual at all, it was simply oversold.

Edit: and you should have loaded up after I called the Gox bottom last week at 400.

A problem is that NO ONE really knows the bottom.. and it is so scary when the downward momentum is happening b/c it tends to happen so quickly, and NO one really seems to know when or if the price is going back up... except for the whale-bot manipulators... and maybe they are even unsure at that point.. when the price is seemingly in freefall stages. NONETHELESS, I agree that if we are in fiat and waiting to get back in we do the best we can to set our buy price and amount before that moment happens.

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 04, 2014, 01:35:34 PM

Quote from: ChrisML on March 04, 2014, 01:27:14 PM

Jesus, you guys talk about BTC in amounts I can only dream of Tongue

Ofcourse it would be much more profitable with 60btc than with 12..

Guess I'll just have to wait till BTC hits $2000 Wink

I started with 17 coins in april 2013

Just seen the potential of BTC too late. I Invested 60k now. So Almost all I got Cheesy

If you started with 17 BTC in April, and then you invested an additional 60k at $700 per BTC, that would put you at 103 BTC. That is 17 + 86 = 103 BTC. I feel so small potatoes with only 36 BTC

Quote from: CryptoFuture on March 04, 2014, 03:07:37 PM

People depositing to BTC-E. When will you learn.

Depositing in bitcoin seems to work pretty well, and pretty quickly... Though, yes, that seems to be a different story.

Quote from: rpietila, the Vassal of the Mighty Goat on March 04, 2014, 03:09:56 PM

Quote from: joburgtaxi on March 04, 2014, 02:41:47 PM

Rpietila, I am keen to hear what your predictions are for the next week or so ?

I cannot predict such short timespans.

The biggest market mover is the people who thought they had bitcoins in Mt.Gox. When they replace (which I believe is going on), the price can rise a lot. We are talking about 100,000s of coins of extra demand.

That seems to be a pretty wimpy explanation... NO HATING... but it remains fairly unclear the extent that Mt. Gox coinholders are going to replace their coins, though possibly, they may replace a fraction of their coins - if they have fiat to accomplish such replacement.

There seems to be a lot more going on in the bitcoin sphere that will be driving up demand for bitcoin, besides the potential replacement of GOX coins. First is that we have a greater clarification of the GOX situation and Second, there has been a lot of BTC network building over the last several months - creating a sort of pent up demand... - fiat waiting on the sidelines b/c of China in December and January and then GOX in February.

In other words, we are likely bound for choo choo territory... first to the 800 to 1000 arena within the next week or two, and then maybe after lingering in the 800-1000 arena for a few months later, with the next 3 months or so the $1500 plus arena....

Quote from: porcupine87 on March 04, 2014, 06:48:28 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on March 04, 2014, 06:43:12 PM

What just happened on Bitstamp? 64 btc order down to 633, doesn't make sense. Anyone can confirm it's just a btcwisdom glitch, or did the trade actually hit 630 for real?

WTF?! Just checked on tradingview, they show it as well. Bitstamp trading enging fucked up?!

Like MoreFun said. The Api shows, that there were 2 trades went through. Check a few trades earlier or https://www.bitstamp.net/api/transactions/ (633.64)

So let me get this straight... if this were NOT a bitstamp trading error fuck up, then every single order down to $633.64 should have been filled, and that would have taken about 3,000 bitcoins to fill all of those orders from $680 to $633.64 (unless some big fish pulled their order(s))..

Thereafter, if some such big fish had put in a 3k sell, it would have taken several minutes for traders to recreate new orders... therefore, a glitch in the system.

Quote from: aminorex on March 04, 2014, 06:59:42 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 04, 2014, 06:32:44 PM

There is resistance at $700 and support at $662 and $642 in this range.

Substantial resistance it seems. Back to range-trading mode. Might do better long in LTC.

Do you still believe that litecoin is good at $17 or $18 - b/c there was a sudden upward adjustment from $14 to $22 and then back down to the $17 area.... ... maybe we will get $25 out of Litecoin in the coming weeks - due to some increased litecoin adoption? Thereafter, it may go parity (i mean parallel) with BTC, again?

Quote from: kkaspar on March 04, 2014, 07:38:29 PM

Quote from: Yololintian on March 04, 2014, 07:19:12 PM

Quote from: kkaspar on March 04, 2014, 07:06:50 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 04, 2014, 06:59:16 PM

Quote from: kkaspar on March 04, 2014, 06:41:40 PM

Are you telling me that one of the biggest exchanges losing their customers money didn't cause a reversal from a downtrend that was caused by the loss of demand in China? How can this be? :O This is impossible!

Sounds like you missed the rally and hope to get another crack. GTFO. The correction to $530 was because of China. Gox took us down to $400. These things can overlap.

Yes, you are absolutely right. I'm angry because there won't be any volatility any longer in the crypto scene to make money at the expense of fools. So I just invented this so called "demand in China" and how it's loss caused a boring 2 month long dead cat bounce.
But I'll try to correct my ways and listen to the TA wizards here who have skillz of drawing linez.

China didn't have anything to do with the downtrend in February, and there is no reason to suppose demand in China is decreasing. The biggest issue with China recently was the uncertainty of what would happen on January 31st (which amounted to nothing); and all we did in January was fluctuate around $800 while worrying about the possibility of something on the 31st. February's downtrend was caused by uncertainty in mtgox and other exchanges, lies about the extent of transaction malleability, some finally mtgox's insolvency. Those issues have mostly been resolved at this point. I wouldn't wait for cheap (sub 600) coins anymore at this point. I think the downtrend is over, unless we get more seriously bad news, which is never unlikely in the bitcoin world.

It was game over for bitcoin in China when it was announced that there is no future for legal business supported by bitcoin. It ment that no serious investors who want to keep solid relations with the government won't touch bitcoin. The market that is left is basically walking on a thin line, only waiting for getting shut down and possibly prosecuted. Only thing that created the long dead cat bounce was denial, desperation and stupidity. If you have been looking at the charts then you know that overall demand has constantly been dropping, with only thing holding the price up is that there aren't many people who are willing to sell cheap. But this in turn is causing a decrease in volume and only way to stimulate the market is lowering the price little by litle...this will reach a critical point when the "will of the hodlers" will break and there will be a nice fall.
Anyway, I'm not arguing about this anymore, I have found that sarcasm is more suitable for this place. I'm tired of the "line drawers" calling for new and new bottoms for these past 2 months. You do whatever you wish and believe whatever you believe.

If you have such beliefs, then why are you hanging around here? Why dont you just sell your bitcoins and leave? Are you here to save the rest of us from ourselves from bitcoin from what? Or are you still investing in the meantime?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 04, 2014, 07:24:42 PM

Quote from: bassclef on March 04, 2014, 05:25:21 PM

This guy showed his hand weeks ago.

I have stated my position several times, but for those who did not see it:

* Cryptocoins are a great invention, and I wish that they succeed in their original goal -- a method of payment through the internet, especially across national borders, that is safe, cheap, convenient, fast, etc. I wish that, and I would love to use them if and when I think that they are better for me than credit cards or other existing means. I wish that, but I do not think that the chances are good. (One shoudl never confuse "desire" with "expectation".)

* I am not a libertarian. I believe that governments are useful and necessary, and we should fight to democratize and improve them rather than abolish them. I see the libertarians' idea of getting rid of governments as sheer lunacy. (For one thing, if you don't have your own strong democratic government, other people will gladly and forcibly lend you theirs.) And I see their hope that bitcoin will let them build their utopia outside the reach of governments as lunacy squared.

* Adults have the right to do whatever they want with their money (within limits of law and ethics, of course), including investing it in whatever they like, gambling it, or even throwing it away.

* In particular, I do not care care if someone buys a lottery ticket when he is fully aware of the odds, or trades it with some fellow gambler who is equally aware of them.

* However, if I see someone buying a lottery ticket because he thinks it is a good investment, I feel this Darwinian duty (magnified by professional habit) to inform that fellow primate about the odds, expected value, and all that. If the guy does not believe me, then, shrug, that is his problem. And, of course, I consider myself excused of that duty if I think that the guy may steal my bananas, or if he snarled some unfriendly noises at me.

* Finally, when someone tries to convince others to buy lottery tickets, by telling them that it is a good investment, when his motive is actually to make a profit out of their "investment" -- then that guy is a scammer, and should go to jail.

I agree with a large number of your points and subpoints however, I do NOT understand why bitcoin and/or some other crypto-currencies cannot fit within your world view. In other words, neither bitcoin nor other crypto-currencies need to be incompatible with your world view. We can still have government and crypto-currencies. I recognize that there are a lot of libertarians in the crypto-currency space; however, I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people... I also believe that crypto currencies can facilitate the will of the people.. and likely facilitate government that follows the will of the people.

Quote from: kkaspar on March 04, 2014, 08:20:35 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 04, 2014, 08:17:52 PM

Quote from: kkaspar on March 04, 2014, 07:38:29 PM

Quote from: Yololintian on March 04, 2014, 07:19:12 PM

Quote from: kkaspar on March 04, 2014, 07:06:50 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 04, 2014, 06:59:16 PM

Quote from: kkaspar on March 04, 2014, 06:41:40 PM

Are you telling me that one of the biggest exchanges losing their customers money didn't cause a reversal from a downtrend that was caused by the loss of demand in China? How can this be? :O This is impossible!

Sounds like you missed the rally and hope to get another crack. GTFO. The correction to $530 was because of China. Gox took us down to $400. These things can overlap.

Yes, you are absolutely right. I'm angry because there won't be any volatility any longer in the crypto scene to make money at the expense of fools. So I just invented this so called "demand in China" and how it's loss caused a boring 2 month long dead cat bounce.
But I'll try to correct my ways and listen to the TA wizards here who have skillz of drawing linez.

China didn't have anything to do with the downtrend in February, and there is no reason to suppose demand in China is decreasing. The biggest issue with China recently was the uncertainty of what would happen on January 31st (which amounted to nothing); and all we did in January was fluctuate around $800 while worrying about the possibility of something on the 31st. February's downtrend was caused by uncertainty in mtgox and other exchanges, lies about the extent of transaction malleability, some finally mtgox's insolvency. Those issues have mostly been resolved at this point. I wouldn't wait for cheap (sub 600) coins anymore at this point. I think the downtrend is over, unless we get more seriously bad news, which is never unlikely in the bitcoin world.

It was game over for bitcoin in China when it was announced that there is no future for legal business supported by bitcoin. It ment that no serious investors who want to keep solid relations with the government won't touch bitcoin. The market that is left is basically walking on a thin line, only waiting for getting shut down and possibly prosecuted. Only thing that created the long dead cat bounce was denial, desperation and stupidity. If you have been looking at the charts then you know that overall demand has constantly been dropping, with only thing holding the price up is that there aren't many people who are willing to sell cheap. But this in turn is causing a decrease in volume and only way to stimulate the market is lowering the price little by litle...this will reach a critical point when the "will of the hodlers" will break and there will be a nice fall.
Anyway, I'm not arguing about this anymore, I have found that sarcasm is more suitable for this place. I'm tired of the "line drawers" calling for new and new bottoms for these past 2 months. You do whatever you wish and believe whatever you believe.

If you have such beliefs, then why are you hanging around here? Why dont you just sell your bitcoins and leave? Are you here to save the rest of us from ourselves from bitcoin from what? Or are you still investing in the meantime?

Because it's profitable to earn money at the expense of people who don't know any better.

OK>>>>> that is fair.. I agree that you do NOT have to believe in the long term success of bitcoin in order to profit from its volatility and even from its trend... that is if you can predict correctly in order to turn a profit.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 04, 2014, 08:24:15 PM

Quote from: uhoh on March 04, 2014, 08:00:22 PM

The killer app for Bitcoin in China is that it is a loophole to evade capital controls. This hasn't changed.

With the current restrictions, it does not seem to be very useful at that.

If a Chinese citizen buys bitcoin at Huobi with Yuan, sends the bitcoins over to Bitstamp, and exchanges then for dollars there, the end result (from PBoC's point of view) seems to be very different from him exchanging the Yuan for dollars at some international bank, or taking the Yuan to the US and changing them there.

In the first case, his yuan stay in China, and the dollars he gets come from the pockets of non-Chinese speculators. In the second case, the Yuan end up in non-Chinese hands, and can be exploited to manipulate Chinese inflation etc.. That, in my uderstanding, is why the PBoC does not seem to care anymore about bitcoin trading in the Chinese exchanges.

Also, I thought that the Chinese did NOT care so much about bitcoin is b/c in essence they are trying to find investment vehicles outside of the dollar... and in that sense, the chinese have an interest in the success and stability of bitcoin as a storage of value, outside of the dollar.

Quote from: Erdogan on March 04, 2014, 08:36:50 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 04, 2014, 08:28:50 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 04, 2014, 07:24:42 PM

Quote from: bassclef on March 04, 2014, 05:25:21 PM

This guy showed his hand weeks ago.

I have stated my position several times, but for those who did not see it:

* Cryptocoins are a great invention, and I wish that they succeed in their original goal -- a method of payment through the internet, especially across national borders, that is safe, cheap, convenient, fast, etc. I wish that, and I would love to use them if and when I think that they are better for me than credit cards or other existing means. I wish that, but I do not think that the chances are good. (One shoudl never confuse "desire" with "expectation".)

* I am not a libertarian. I believe that governments are useful and necessary, and we should fight to democratize and improve them rather than abolish them. I see the libertarians' idea of getting rid of governments as sheer lunacy. (For one thing, if you don't have your own strong democratic government, other people will gladly and forcibly lend you theirs.) And I see their hope that bitcoin will let them build their utopia outside the reach of governments as lunacy squared.

* Adults have the right to do whatever they want with their money (within limits of law and ethics, of course), including investing it in whatever they like, gambling it, or even throwing it away.

* In particular, I do not care care if someone buys a lottery ticket when he is fully aware of the odds, or trades it with some fellow gambler who is equally aware of them.

* However, if I see someone buying a lottery ticket because he thinks it is a good investment, I feel this Darwinian duty (magnified by professional habit) to inform that fellow primate about the odds, expected value, and all that. If the guy does not believe me, then, shrug, that is his problem. And, of course, I consider myself excused of that duty if I think that the guy may steal my bananas, or if he snarled some unfriendly noises at me.

* Finally, when someone tries to convince others to buy lottery tickets, by telling them that it is a good investment, when his motive is actually to make a profit out of their "investment" -- then that guy is a scammer, and should go to jail.

I agree with a large number of your points and subpoints however, I do NOT understand why bitcoin and/or some other crypto-currencies cannot fit within your world view. In other words, neither bitcoin nor other crypto-currencies need to be incompatible with your world view. We can still have government and crypto-currencies. I recognize that there are a lot of libertarians in the crypto-currency space; however, I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people... I also believe that crypto currencies can facilitate the will of the people.. and likely facilitate government that follows the will of the people.

The main thing governments do with their money, is increasing the supply (newspeak regulating, keep prices stable). If he thinks that government needs to have this power, bitcoin is at odds.

Personally, I believe that it is pie in the sky, if we were to believe that bitcoin were going to take over any large percentage of fiat currencies in the near future. However, a few years from now this may become more possible. I suppose that any government (such as the US govt) needs to calculate the extent to which bitcoin may be considered to be at odds with it.

I agree that there has been a lot of conniving with the US Govt printing of money and a lot of the secrecy that has gone along with the distribution of that newly printed money. Certainly, bitcoin should be able to contribute towards competing with that aspect of what really appears to be irresponsible government.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 04, 2014, 08:39:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 04, 2014, 08:28:50 PM

I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people.

So do the libertarians.

I may have overstated this point to some extent - b/c I recognize that there may exist several flavors of libertarianism...

My main point is that i do NOT view govt as the problem. However, I do believe that too much money influence in buying politicians is more frequently the problem that makes our government go awry.... ... ultimately, money should NOT be used to purchase politicians or to divert them from representing the will of the people.

Quote from: TERA on March 04, 2014, 08:48:07 PM

I've been pretty bullish lately but I do have one concern. The injection of fiat into bitstamp order books seems to have stopped. There isn't any more fiat on the books nows than there was in the past week in the 500 levels. The amount of selling (in btc) to reach 400 is exactly the same and the total amount of fiat on the books is actually LESS because all the bids in the 300s and 200s were removed. If I don't see another fiat injection in the next week, I am going to get really concerned.

A bull may be transformed into a bear?

Do you have to have a Bitstamp account to view this information?

I do NOT have an account, but I can view the bid and ask order books - but only back so far. Currently, with the price at $663, I can see between $530 and $796. I did NOT know that anyone could view beyond those order price points.

Quote from: Solarstorm75 on March 04, 2014, 08:57:49 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 04, 2014, 08:48:07 PM

I am going to get really concerned.

You should. Now we see the bull trap unfold.

The ongoing battle about what it is..... the bulls say that we are seeing a prolonged bear trap and the bears say that we are seeing a bull trap... hehehehe

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 04, 2014, 08:58:11 PM

Quote from: bassclef on March 04, 2014, 08:10:02 PM

The mere fact that you refer to them as cryptocoins tells me that you're ready to start giving sound market analysis. Roll Eyes

I say "cryptocoins" rather than "bitcoin" because bitcoin is obviously only one of them, and any of them would serve for that otiginal goal.

Quote from: bassclef on March 04, 2014, 08:10:02 PM

-you don't own any "cryptocoins"

One excuse for that is that it helps me keep neutral. Fom watching the bitcoin scene, I now strongly suspect that if I owned even one bitcon, I would start looking for "bullish" facts and thoughts and ignoring "bearish" ones, would prefer models that show its price going up, would wish for more people to invest in it, would wish for the other altcoins to fail, ....

I respect your claim to remain neutral; however, you should at least go through the process of purchasing 1 BTC or some fragment of a BTC (eg .1 BTC). Your investment does NOT need to be a lot in order to improve your experiencial knowledge.

Quote from: chopstick on March 04, 2014, 09:10:28 PM

Still waiting for 300k bitcoins so I can be a millionaire.

My guess, maybe by summer 2015? lol

WOW...... NOW that is really pie in the sky thinking... I can imagine a world with $300K bitcoins, but that will probably be a bit further into the future.. maybe 2025-ish? or 2035? Probably the best that we could expect by 2015 would be around $20K... but more realistically $10K... NEVER say NEVER, though.

Quote from: rocks on March 04, 2014, 09:29:47 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 04, 2014, 08:39:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 04, 2014, 08:28:50 PM

I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people.

So do the libertarians.

Richy, there is no point in arguing with JayJuanGee because he is one of those who plant false flags in order to make points based on unsound positions.

Libertarians believe in small limited government, which is the concept of the US, at least for the first 200 years. But liars and liberals such as JayJuanGee find it easiest to go around saying that liberatians believe in zero government and complete anarchy, because their positions have zero backing.

WOW.....

From where do you get your information? Sounds as if you know me or something (with some preconceived and whimsical notions about who is "JayJuanGee") hehehe

Also, from your post, it sounds as if you want to get into labeling, personal bashing, politics and argument for the sake of argument.. for some unknown reason.

Otherwise, nice to meet you, Rocks, and if you are interested in communicating via PM, then I look forward to such.

Quote from: jojo69 on March 04, 2014, 09:57:01 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 04, 2014, 09:42:19 PM

so its official stamps is the new gox

we're all going to get stamped!

Grin

my impression from my, admittedly brief, tenure over on the cool kids forum was that the smart money is on BTC-e...believe it or not

What is "smart" money? As compared with non-smart money?

Quote from: Richy_T on March 04, 2014, 10:01:10 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 04, 2014, 08:46:19 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 04, 2014, 08:39:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 04, 2014, 08:28:50 PM

I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people.

So do the libertarians.

I may have overstated this point to some extent - b/c I recognize that there may exist several flavors of libertarianism...

My main point is that i do NOT view govt as the problem. However, I do believe that too much money influence in buying politicians is more frequently the problem that makes our government go awry.... ... ultimately, money should NOT be used to purchase politicians or to divert them from representing the will of the people.

I was being a little obtuse but my point was that libertarians do not believe that "the will of the people" is the be-all and end-all of what is right. Central to most right-libertarian philosophy is the non-aggression principle and democracy is two wolves and a lamb deciding what to have for dinner.

Yeah... maybe each of us is being a little obtuse b/c I am NOT really very inclined to get into some in-depth political debate about whether or NOT libertarianism is a good idea or even necessarily to discuss the role of the vote, representation, the will of the people or money in politics.

Even though politics may in several ways come to bear in the discussion of bitcoin and other crypto-currencies, I was personally attempting to make the point that whether a person believes in bitcoin or NOT does NOT necessarily have to concern whether he believes in big government or NOT.

Frequently, there can be tensions with various competing ideologies concerning the largess and the role of govt, yet in the end, it DOES NOT seem to be black and white - especially when it comes to blanket statements concerning whether govt should be big or small....

Quote from: TERA on March 04, 2014, 10:46:37 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 04, 2014, 09:38:39 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 04, 2014, 08:48:07 PM

I've been pretty bullish lately but I do have one concern. The injection of fiat into bitstamp order books seems to have stopped. There isn't any more fiat on the books nows than there was in the past week in the 500 levels. The amount of selling (in btc) to reach 400 is exactly the same and the total amount of fiat on the books is actually LESS because all the bids in the 300s and 200s were removed. If I don't see another fiat injection in the next week, I am going to get really concerned.

A bull may be transformed into a bear?

Do you have to have a Bitstamp account to view this information?

I do NOT have an account, but I can view the bid and ask order books - but only back so far. Currently, with the price at $663, I can see between $530 and $796. I did NOT know that anyone could view beyond those order price points.

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD

Thanks a lot for that.

I guess personally the significance is NOT quite sinking in. I understand your point that it would be more difficult for bitcoin to go up in price if fiat is NOT coming into exchanges in order to allow for BTC purchases. I suppose that you are suggesting that you would like to see more fiat come in, in order to prices to go up? I do NOT really see much fluctuation in the chart in current times, However, in early November it appeared that a lot of dollars went into exchanges preceding the rise in BTC prices.

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 04, 2014, 10:56:50 PM

on high volume days stamps can trade over 100K coins
pretty sure >90% of depth is off the books
dont worry about it

Yeah whether the trades are on or off the books, I would imagine, unless there are considerable extremes, the numbers are NOT really going to affect predicting prices.

Quote from: roslinpl on March 04, 2014, 11:05:09 PM

Soon time to sleep

want to wake up and see 750$.

NiteNite.

Surely, soon we are going to get to $750. Probably, it is NOT unrealistic to arrive within 24 hours - though I am thinking for sure by next week we will be in the $750 to $850 range.

Quote from: explorer on March 04, 2014, 11:22:41 PM

Quote from: seleme on March 04, 2014, 10:58:19 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 04, 2014, 10:08:26 PM

Quote from: bitcodo on March 04, 2014, 09:34:01 PM

Go back to school and you will know where Slovenia is. It seems it is leading country for cryptocurrency trading. Still waiting for someone else from respectful country like yours to show something better.
Some have Hitler and Bosh, some have Bush and you, but we have Bitstamp.

Anyway, the 'glitch' was just the begining.

All your bitcoins are belong to us.

According to Wikipedia, Slovenia wasn't even a country until 1991, by which time I was out of school. It was part of Yugoslavia before that, which makes sense. Bitstamp code is to computer engineering as the Yugo was to automotive engineering.

I mean, seriously, how fucked and out of this world and some general knowledge, one has to be to need Wikipedia to find out about Slovenia.

But gues, it's not strange since Bush was on one meeting in Slovenia back at his president time and said - "I'm so glad to finally visit Slovakia."

You Americans are such fucktards sometimes Grin

Wikipedia is a very useful tool. Like any info, if it is important you will cross check it with other sources.
My maps all have USSR on them Grin

It says nothing about my formal education, it means only that I am old and don't really have any reason to study Europe. I have no idea what the current divisions in Africa are either. So? Be assured that I will learn what I need to know before I visit there, since it will probably change three more times before I get there in approximately... oh, never.

YOUR name is explorer.... So get yourself to africa... or at least some other parts of the globe... NO?

Quote from: virtualfaqs on March 05, 2014, 03:07:56 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 05, 2014, 02:41:59 AM

looks like we still got a few bears that think they know better,
bears prepare to wake up dazed and confused as you look upon other flag pole formation and price at 741.POWNED!!!!

Cheesy

This looks like the same scenario as when I traded in December. It's bouncing between 650 and 700. Undecided

Well, I'll wait until 680 to 700 and sell. Then buy back at 650.

End up going to sleep. Sold at 700. Wake up at 750. Cry

I believe that this is one of the problems with the Whale/Bots controlling the price situation. Certainly, they cannot completely control the long-term upward momentum, but they can control the stability periods and right when a real person investor believes that s/he senses a pattern, then the whale bot takes the matter in another direction or takes the matter out of what had seemed to be a predictable range of swings. It is real bullshit, but maybe NOT a lot that a real small fish investor can do about the situation if s/he does NOT have the resources. Just have to time the matter to the best extent, and also it seems pretty certain that investing in the long-term should be a good bet with BTC.

Quote from: Hunterbunter on March 05, 2014, 05:24:18 AM

wow so many people think it'll break $800 this week? How come?

To me, this $800 by the end of the week seems more like a wish of an outcome rather than a prediction of a very likely occurrence. Surely, bitcoin has been volatile in the preceding months; however, what brought bitcoin into the $500s and then into the $400s within the past couple of weeks was a series of bad news events (china and mt gox and other concerns about bitcoin securty) and likely manipulation(by whales and bots) - yet I remain of the belief that Bitcoin cannot so easily overcome the downward pressure of such negative news and manipulation within the span of the week.

Personally, I DO believe that around this time in bitcoin history $800 would be a comfortable and reasonable floating point for a few weeks while some of the bitcoin news, expansion and network gets sorted out.. including continuing to let the travesty of the Mt. Gox circumstances sink in sufficiently in order that we are able to mourn somewhat before moving on to next higher grounds.

Certainly, it seems that NONE of us here truly know the direction of bitcoin or have crystal balls - even though some of us here claim to be more omniscient than others. I certainly cannot predict the irrational aspects and also the exponential growth potential of bitcoin. Surely I believe that $650 to $750 would be manageable for this week, but likely we will NOT reach any kind of stable $800 ... I do expect also that possibly for a month or three or four that we will regularly experiencing sub $1000 territory.. until we likely begin to transition past new ATH territory and into the $1500 arena.. for a while.... before going further up.... maybe 2-4k would be reachable by the end of the calendar year.. and maybe 6-8k by the end of 2015... ... of course speculation, to some extent.. but certainly conservative speculation, in my thinking.... so long as bitcoin does NOT become undermined in some major way in the interrim.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 05, 2014, 06:09:47 AM

So, how can one honestly recommend investing into bitcoin as a hedge against a possible dollar collapse, as a way of becoming a millionaire, or whatever the "salesmen" are saying these days? It is like buying a ticket for a crazy lottery that does not tell its clients what are the odds and prizes, and may or may not be seeking to lose money.

Definitely, I appreciate you discussion of value and predicted value in terms of a lottery ticket; however, with all your smartness, you are certainly missing some essential points about bitcoin.

First: Bitcoin does NOT need to win the lottery or have some exorbitant pay off in order for it to be of considerable value. Actually, even if bitcoin maintains its value flat, it is doing a heck of a lot better than the dollar b/c the dollar is inevitably programmed to shrink in value due to dilution (too much expansion of the supply).

So, you go wrong in a couple of respects regarding your bitcoin/lottery discussion, the first, as referred to above, is the anticipation that some major payoff is needed in order for bitcoin to be successful.

Second: The other aspect that you go wrong is to expect that any investment in BTC has to be for a predetermined number of years. Markets have inevitably shown that investors are capable of playing their investments by ear and to go with the flow with whatever the investors perceive to be best to provide them with an acceptable return. ... and even though at this particular moment, bitcoin may be among the best of the long term crypto-currencies, yet if another and better cryptocurrency comes along, then certainly bitcoin money can be moved into that new and better investment. So bitcoin does not need to be the best forever, it ONLY needs to be the best for the moment. That expression .. ."dont let the perfect be the enemy of the good."

Quote from: solex on March 05, 2014, 06:43:15 AM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 05, 2014, 05:09:10 AM

Gotta hand it to Tera with his/her 666

667 is the geometric mean of the Stamp ATH and post-ATH low. It is logical for the price to gravitate there now that the gox-shock has faded.

I have a difficult time thinking that any of this gravitation of bitcoin price around 666 is natural... Surely we have momentum that whales and bots cannot control.. but some of these coincidences of gravitations are likely bot/whale manipulated... . Whales can keep us up and keep us down within a range... take for example the sell $700 wall on bitstamp... if the momentum seems too great, then that sell wall will get pulled and put at $720... however, in the meantime, the whale got his way to keep prices below $700 and then to move downward in order that he can buy new BTC at $666 from his $700 sales...

Nice deal for those who have the means to manipulate... I am ONLY resentful to the extent that I do NOT Have those means and that ability, yet if I did have those means and that ability, it is likely that I probably would use that kind of manipulation to make sure and easy money.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 05, 2014, 06:50:29 AM

It seems that those investors whose expected value is 1,000 USD or more are very few, and they have run out of money; otherwise they would keep buying BTCs until the price gets over their expectation.

Therefore, most of the "loaded" traders have expected values less than 700 USD right now. To get that value they must assign very small probability to "bitcoin will be eventually worth more than 700,000 dollars". Specifically, they think that the chances of that happening are less than 1 in 1000. (Even if they do not externalize that probability, it is implicit in their reluctance to pay more than 700$ for one bitcoin.).

Actually the fact that investors are only willing to pay $700 at the moment is NOT merely b/c they believe that there is a 1/1000 chance of bitcoin reaching 700,000. Instead, a large number of investors recognize the price of BTC as a moving target, and s/he would rather buy 7 BTC for $700 rather than 1BTC for $700. When the price fluctuates so much investors calculate when to get in or to get out based on predictions that are truly difficult to predict - except the whales and the bots have a higher ability to predict the short term and to profit by the short term.. even though bots and whales cannot be certain about long term outcomes.

Quote from: Yololintian on March 05, 2014, 07:17:05 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 07:05:18 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 05, 2014, 06:50:29 AM

It seems that those investors whose expected value is 1,000 USD or more are very few, and they have run out of money; otherwise they would keep buying BTCs until the price gets over their expectation.

Therefore, most of the "loaded" traders have expected values less than 700 USD right now. To get that value they must assign very small probability to "bitcoin will be eventually worth more than 700,000 dollars". Specifically, they think that the chances of that happening are less than 1 in 1000. (Even if they do not externalize that probability, it is implicit in their reluctance to pay more than 700$ for one bitcoin.).

Actually the fact that investors are only willing to pay $700 at the moment is NOT merely b/c they believe that there is a 1/1000 chance of bitcoin reaching 700,000. Instead, a large number of investors recognize the price of BTC as a moving target, and s/he would rather buy 7 BTC for $700 rather than 1BTC for $700. When the price fluctuates so much investors calculate when to get in or to get out based on predictions that are truly difficult to predict - except the whales and the bots have a higher ability to predict the short term and to profit by the short term.. even though bots and whales cannot be certain about long term outcomes.

Why do you think whales are good at predicting the short term? Or are you saying they can actually move the price themselves? In that case they aren't making a prediction but they will know exactly how much the price will change based on how much btc they buy/sell.

I do NOT have a very sophisticated analysis about why or how it happens exactly; however, I am saying that within parameters, whales and bots are able to move the price enough in one direction or another in order to predict what is going to happen. When there is low volume, they do NOT need as many coins to manipulate, and when there is high volume they need a lot of coins. Surely, sometimes,even a whale will NOT be able to move the market b/c s/he cannot completely predict the behavior of other whales, and the sentiment of the masses may cause the price direction to move the opposite of the whales attempted manipulation. NONETHELESS, the point I was making is that it is my sense that there is quite a bit of manipulation going on, even though it is NOT easy to decipher for sure about what just happened, especially if manipulation is taking place in smaller increments (such as a series of 30 btc at a time or some other random amounts).

Quote from: Yololintian on March 05, 2014, 07:38:03 AM

Maybe but I don't think its very significant. What is more pernicious is the insider trading that has definitely happened a few times recently.

My feelings ebb and flow regarding the whale/bot manipulations, yet I try to factor it in to my own investment decisions, rather than to become too irritated by it.

Yes, insider trading is quite irritating - and yes, it does seem obviously to be taking place when there are certain large transactions taking place right prior to the release of some major news.

Quote from: Peter R on March 05, 2014, 07:46:36 AM

Quote from: Yololintian on March 05, 2014, 07:38:03 AM

What is more pernicious is the insider trading that has definitely happened a few times recently.

Can you give me an example of who an insider might be?

Do you consider yourself an insider or an outsider?

If I created something I believed was important for bitcoin and purchased more coins because I thought my invention made bitcoin more valuable, would that be insider trading in your mind?

You seem to be getting caught up in technicalities in order to attempt to defend insider trading.. are you a troll?

Obviously, insider trading is term of art and a technical term... yet the kind of thing that laymen understand would be illegal if bitcoin were a stock. Surely bitcoin is NOT a stock, so sometimes people may begin to believe that it is o.k .to engage in it.

Certainly, if a person knows about some inside scoop, s/he is going to take advantage of that inside scoop to make a profit. I think an illegal aspect of insider trading is if someone is put in a position of trust over an entity and then is milking investors by trading on the inside information and investors pay for that, in the end b/c they do NOT have the inside information.

Quote from: Peter R on March 05, 2014, 08:14:07 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 07:53:45 AM

You seem to be getting caught up in technicalities in order to attempt to defend insider trading.. are you a troll?

It was a serious question. The point I was trying to make is that there are no insiders and there are no outsiders. These terms no longer make sense outside of the legacy financial system.

Why do you think most people are here on this thread? They are looking for information to make better trading decisions. If they find it, are you saying that it would be unethical for them to act on it?

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 07:53:45 AM

Obviously, insider trading is term of art and a technical term... yet the kind of thing that laymen understand would be illegal if bitcoin were a stock. Surely bitcoin is NOT a stock, so sometimes people may begin to believe that it is o.k .to engage in it.

Bitcoin is not a stock. There's neither insiders nor outsiders, but some people have better information than others. That's life.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 07:53:45 AM

Certainly, if a person knows about some inside scoop, s/he is going to take advantage of that inside scoop to make a profit. I think an illegal aspect of insider trading is if someone is put in a position of trust over an entity and then is milking investors by trading on the inside information and investors pay for that, in the end b/c they do NOT have the inside information.

You are blurring the lines between "using what you've learned to your advantage" and "defrauding your customers." Only one of these is unethical.

If I purchase more bitcoins because I think my invention will be useful and strengthen the ecosystem, then I'm taking a risk on what I believe. If I'm right, then I would call that a just reward.

If someone sells GoxBTC to his customers because only he knows that GoxBTC aren't back by any real BTC and he needs to raise cash, then that is fraud.

WE are NOT really on different pages, here - even though initially, I got the sense that your question was just meant to provoke and to argue technicalities.

When posters throw around the term insider trading, frequently, they are NOT really going to know how to argue it or to defend against it in the abstract, and certainly that is likely why you asked for examples.

When posters refer to obvious insider trading in the recent past, they are referring to suspicious buy or sell activity that seems to coincide with prior release of news... for example, prior to GOX closing down, there were some 10k sales... and, also there are probably some other examples of someone who may have found out from a company like GOX that they were going to make an announcement.... which would cause a certain price change in a certain direction.

Surely, no one is claiming that information obtained through a forum or intense research and the creation of inferences would constitute insider trading in the sense that is repugnant to posters.

Even attorneys may NOT necessarily understand the difference between something that is illegal and something that is NOT and be able to define it exactly.

In other words, I think we are getting caught up in technicalities when we want to argue about insider trading that would be repugnant and insider trading that would be acceptable.... certainly, posters here use the term to refer to fraudulent kinds... but may NOT be provable... or easy to trace.. but we get a pretty clear sense that they are happening when coincidentally activity goes up 4 hours before an announcment.

Quote from: 600watt on March 05, 2014, 09:38:51 AM

Quote

The Doomsday Cult of Bitcoin
By Kevin Roose

On December 21, 1954, a woman named Dorothy Martin thought the world was going to end. Martin, a Chicago housewife, claimed to have received a message from aliens, warning her of an impending flood that would kill everyone on earth except for true believers, who would be carried away to safety on a flying saucer. For months, Martin had been gathering a band of followers who called themselves the Seekers and quietly prepared for their alien abduction. The Seekers left behind family and friends, sold their possessions, and on December 20, they waited. When midnight came, they waited some more.
When they realized the flying saucer wasn't going to come, and that Martin's prophecy had been wrong, something odd happened: Rather than giving up, the Seekers began furiously calling up newspapers and trying to spread their message as widely as possible. In order to overcome the cognitive dissonance of their situation and convince themselves their sacrifices had been worthwhile, they needed to proselytize.
This is, we now know, a psychologically normal response for prophetic groups whose central predictions fail to come true. And today, you can see something similar going on with another group of failing zealots. I'm talking about the cult of Bitcoin.
For months now, Bitcoin soothsayers have proclaimed that the virtual currency is going to Change Everything. The mass adoption of Bitcoin, they told us, would utterly transform the way the world stores and exchanges value. Government-backed currency would become obsolete. Farmers in Kenya would use the same Bitcoin-based payment systems as cafés in the Mission. With the future of money in the hands of Satoshi Nakamoto's brilliant protocol, inexact central planning would be replaced by algorithmic decentralization.
Of course, none of that has happened. And it's exceedingly likely that none of it will. (...)

it is really funny. first the nay sayers told us it will never work, the guys who try it are idiots. now, as they realize that bitcoin is still around they bring on the next move: ha, bitcoin hasn´t achieved what the bitcoiners say it would = must be bad.

it went kind of fast from: it will not succeed to see, it hasn´t succeeded Wink

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/doomsday-cult-of-bitcoin.html

The above quoted article is such bullshit that it is hardly worth repeating.... Maybe I am guilty of the same but I just wanted to make clear my referent? Surely, with any movement, there are going to be some people who are true believers, and they have NO basis in fact for their beliefs - however, to put bitcoin in that category and to suggest that a lot of bitcoin followers fall into cultish behavior attempts to poo poo and to minimize a large number of concrete and positive contributions of bitcoin.

Quote from: dreamspark on March 05, 2014, 11:10:27 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on March 05, 2014, 11:04:32 AM

I pm'd Mark on irc, asking if he is working on re-opening the exchange and he said yes.

Did not expect that he would react to my questions

How does he plan on opening an empty exchange? I'm sure people thought he would try and open it if all the funds werent gone but at this point just how does he plan on running an exchange with no coins that has just been plastered over the news as the bankruptcy of bitcoin a long with all the stories of peoples lives ruined by this.

YEAH... this reopening of GOX is crazy-talk.

Quote from: spooderman on March 05, 2014, 01:23:12 PM

So I can't find any threads here about bitstamp's hiccup yesterday.

Not leaving anything in there until I do.

One hiccup does NOT an insolvent exchange make.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 05, 2014, 02:10:03 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 06:43:29 AM

Bitcoin does NOT need to win the lottery or have some exorbitant pay off in order for it to be of considerable value. Actually, even if bitcoin maintains its value flat, it is doing a heck of a lot better than the dollar b/c the dollar is inevitably programmed to shrink in value due to dilution (too much expansion of the supply).

Sure, cash under the mattress is definitely a bad investment. On the other hand, the stock of a good company usually has a positive net expected value, typically around 5% of the price plus inflation.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 06:43:29 AM

So, you go wrong in a couple of respects regarding your bitcoin/lottery discussion, the first, as referred to above, is the anticipation that some major payoff is needed in order for bitcoin to be successful.

When I started paying attention to bitcoin, a few months ago, one of the two main "selling" points used to convince people to invest in it was the demand/supply argment, ostensibly proving that its price would rise to six figures or more when, at some not too distant future, everybody starte using bitcoins. (A few days ago someone posted a photo of a projected slide showing such numbers for various scenarios, ending with "investment/pension funds keep their capital as bitcoin" and some astronomical number beside that.) And in this thread, the "hodlers" apparently still believe in that math.

There were (there are) several things wrong with that argument, the main one being the implicit assumption that cryptocoin = bitcoin. A year ago, the salesman could jump from "cryptocoins are so nice that everybody will want to use them" to "bitcoins will be used in X% of all e-payments" without people noticing the gap. Back then, altcoins were only a theoretical possibility, which was dismissed by claims about the "Network Effect" and "First-Movers Advantage".

Well, since then altcoins became a reality, did not fail as predicted, and some of them seem to be strong competitors to bitcoin. One thing that bitcoiners missed is that any "Satoshi" who creates an altcoin can make a lot of money by selling his pre-mined coins at the right moment, even if the coin flops later on. Clearly the Network Effect and First Mover Advantage weren't strong enough to counter that "Copycat Advantage". Moreover, some altcoins do have some advantages over bitcoin, such as faster processing, democratic distribution of pre-mined coins, or a lethally cute puppy face.

Anyway, now bitcoin salesmen cannot do that jump any more. They must keep saying "cryptocoin" instead of "bitcoin" all the way to the final demand/supply formula. But since the supply of cryptocoins is infinite, not 21 million, the conclusion will be that "when cryptocoins are used to their full potential, the price of a cryptocoin will be at least zero." In other words, that demand/supply argument just went poof.

The sad fact is that now there is no argument or statistical analysis that will justify any claim about the value of a bitcoin in that ultimate future. It definitely may be zero, even if cryptocoins succeed beyond all dreams.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 06:43:29 AM

The other aspect that you go wrong is to expect that any investment in BTC has to be for a predetermined number of years. Markets have inevitably shown that investors are capable of playing their investments by ear and to go with the flow with whatever the investors perceive to be best to provide them with an acceptable return.

That is a very different "market", namely the speculative investors who aim to make money by buying and selling as the price changes. Indeed, because of its high volatility, bitcoin may appeal to those speculators who believe that they are smarter than their peers. However, short-range speculation is basically a zero-sum game. In practice, it is a negative-sum game, because of trading fees and time wasted. So, the expected value for a randomly chosen speculator is negative, like that of a lottery ticket.

And, anyway, that use is not what cryptocoins were invented for. One thing that the world does not need is another financial instrument for speculators to play with.

Jorge :

I appreciate that you responded to a few of the points that I had made in my earlier post.

It seems that you are truly a smart guy; however, your responses to my points are very inadequate and seem to exist in some kind of lala land universe.

Your arguments are truly inadequate, and it seems that I need NOT supplement my earlier explanation in order to recognize that you go on several tangents rather than directly dealing with the reality of the situation regarding bitcoin being an evolving product that is the current cryptocurrency market leader.. bitcoin remains the market leader in spite of the multiple other cryptocurrencies.

Surely, some day one or more of those alternative cryptocurrencies may give bitcoin a run for its money, but face the reality of the situation that bitcoin retains a much larger percentage of they crypto currency market share and the increasing investment into ALL cryptocurrencies shows an increasing public interest in the cryptocurrency concept which, ultimately, seems to benefit bitcoin.

Now, on the other hand, some of the shenanigans and the seemingly ponzi schemes with some of the alternative cryptocurrencies, may snuff out some of bitcoin's energy... but we are going to have to see how those distractive dynamics play out before putting our nails in a bitcoin coffin, as you seem anxious to begin such bitcoin funeral preparations.

Quote from: tailor on March 05, 2014, 04:09:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 03:50:13 PM

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/doomsday-cult-of-bitcoin.html

The above quoted article is such bullshit that it is hardly worth repeating.... Maybe I am guilty of the same but I just wanted to make clear my referent? Surely, with any movement, there are going to be some people who are true believers, and they have NO basis in fact for their beliefs - however, to put bitcoin in that category and to suggest that a lot of bitcoin followers fall into cultish behavior attempts to poo poo and to minimize a large number of concrete and positive contributions of bitcoin.

Your outright dismissal of the article is exactly the type of cultish behaviour the author is talking about - dismiss anything that doesn't fit the faith view.

What concrete contributions has bitcoin made? It certainly hasn't changed the world yet, and it's highly unlikely it will without some drastic change to the limited exchange problem. The killer app for BTC could be transferring money online, but that only works if it can be easily converted to local currency

You are going to defend the bullshit article... WOW... and then accuse me of engaging in cultish behavior b/c I call the article bullshit.

I am NOT going to waste my time arguing point by point the bullshit nature of the article b/c it should be abundantly clear to you, if you were to know anything about bitcoin, that material changes are occurring within the bitcoin network, including billions of dollars of investment going into its infrastructure and its wider and wider network of acceptance and use.. which sooner or later (more likely sooner) is going to be reflected in increased prices and exponential growth of prices (absent some very material flaws or problems with bitcoin - which we have NOT yet discovered).

This bitcoin thingy majiggy is NOT a product of a cult but more likely the early stages of an expanding phenomenon that YOU seem to be unwilling or unable to recognize with your suggestion that I am engaging in cultish denial.. b/c I continue to believe and to think the article is bullshit.... and a BIGASS waste of time to accept its framing of the issue as anything less than disingenuous.

Quote from: podyx on March 05, 2014, 04:36:31 PM

Quote from: tailor on March 05, 2014, 04:09:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 03:50:13 PM

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/doomsday-cult-of-bitcoin.html

The above quoted article is such bullshit that it is hardly worth repeating.... Maybe I am guilty of the same but I just wanted to make clear my referent? Surely, with any movement, there are going to be some people who are true believers, and they have NO basis in fact for their beliefs - however, to put bitcoin in that category and to suggest that a lot of bitcoin followers fall into cultish behavior attempts to poo poo and to minimize a large number of concrete and positive contributions of bitcoin.

Your outright dismissal of the article is exactly the type of cultish behaviour the author is talking about - dismiss anything that doesn't fit the faith view.

What concrete contributions has bitcoin made? It certainly hasn't changed the world yet, and it's highly unlikely it will without some drastic change to the limited exchange problem. The killer app for BTC could be transferring money online, but that only works if it can be easily converted to local currency.

the irony of the whole fucking thing, u ask?? his behaviour is the exact same LOL

Whose behavior? Mine? or Tailor's?

Quote from: tailor on March 05, 2014, 06:07:30 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on March 05, 2014, 04:14:57 PM

Quote from: tailor on March 05, 2014, 04:09:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 03:50:13 PM

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/doomsday-cult-of-bitcoin.html

The above quoted article is such bullshit that it is hardly worth repeating.... Maybe I am guilty of the same but I just wanted to make clear my referent? Surely, with any movement, there are going to be some people who are true believers, and they have NO basis in fact for their beliefs - however, to put bitcoin in that category and to suggest that a lot of bitcoin followers fall into cultish behavior attempts to poo poo and to minimize a large number of concrete and positive contributions of bitcoin.

Your outright dismissal of the article is exactly the type of cultish behaviour the author is talking about - dismiss anything that doesn't fit the faith view.

What concrete contributions has bitcoin made? It certainly hasn't changed the world yet, and it's highly unlikely it will without some drastic change to the limited exchange problem. The killer app for BTC could be transferring money online, but that only works if it can be easily converted to local currency.

Give these things time for pete's sake. A little over a year ago disbelievers were saying that no serious company accepted bitcoin, that you couldn't buy food with it etc. , and that therefore it wasn't useful and had failed.... Now look at overstock.com, food delivery services, etc. ..

Absolutely. Slow and steady I can see. It's the hype that's nutty - predictions of a 10x increase in value again with little to drive it. It's the hype that the author is talking about.

Actually, Tailor, you may have a good point if you suggest that the BTC price is outpacing the building of the infrastructure... Actually, I would consider those to be very decent kinds of arguments... but on the other hand to suggest that BTC has NO value or nearly NO value, fails to account for several innovations that bitcoin brings... beyond the mere payment processing system.. which is NO small innovation even by itsellf.

Quote from: delphic on March 05, 2014, 07:56:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 07:46:04 PM

Now, on the other hand, some of the shenanigans and the seemingly ponzi schemes with some of the alternative cryptocurrencies, may snuff out some of bitcoin's energy... but we are going to have to see how those distractive dynamics play out before putting our nails in a bitcoin coffin, as you seem anxious to begin such bitcoin funeral preparations.

A funeral paid for with bitcoins. That would be great publicity.

Yeah... hehehe..

We would NOT want the funeral of bitcoin paid for by BBQ coin... or paid for by Doge coin.. We could have the funeral of bitcoin paid for by bitcoin.. Then everyone will be happy. Cheesy

Quote from: tailor on March 05, 2014, 08:13:12 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 08:02:24 PM

I am NOT going to waste my time arguing point by point the bullshit nature of the article b/c it should be abundantly clear to you, if you were to know anything about bitcoin, that material changes are occurring within the bitcoin network, including billions of dollars of investment going into its infrastructure and its wider and wider network of acceptance and use.. which sooner or later (more likely sooner) is going to be reflected in increased prices and exponential growth of prices (absent some very material flaws or problems with bitcoin - which we have NOT yet discovered).

Billions of dollars? Really? That's hype on a whole new level.

Whether it is billions or millions or gazillions, the point remains the same, there is an expansive quantity of dollars and other fiat going into various bitcoin related ventures and related research and explorations...

It appears that you are trying to distract from the point, and I am NOT gonna take that bait.

By the way, Tailor, what are you doing in this forum? Are you just here to inform bitcoin investors of the perils of bitcoin, or do you have some meaningful purpose, besides spreading baloney distractions?

Quote from: tailor on March 05, 2014, 08:17:08 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 05, 2014, 08:08:13 PM

Quote from: tailor on March 05, 2014, 08:05:51 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 05, 2014, 08:00:11 PM

They have already been logically proven to be wrong. To date they have had no predictive value. You can't make up for lack of substance with repetition and volume. I like a good scary story. Scare me. These weak ass objections would be boring if it weren't for the schadenfreude they provide.

What's been logically proven to be wrong in the article being discussed?

This is what I'm talking about. Do your own fucking research. You may not be tired of repeating yourself, but I am.

In other words, little if anything has been.

In other words, you are NOT contributing to the conversation b/c you are NOT adding anything substantively of value.

Quote from: octaft on March 05, 2014, 08:26:38 PM

Quote from: tailor on March 05, 2014, 08:17:08 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 05, 2014, 08:08:13 PM

Quote from: tailor on March 05, 2014, 08:05:51 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 05, 2014, 08:00:11 PM

They have already been logically proven to be wrong. To date they have had no predictive value. You can't make up for lack of substance with repetition and volume. I like a good scary story. Scare me. These weak ass objections would be boring if it weren't for the schadenfreude they provide.

What's been logically proven to be wrong in the article being discussed?

This is what I'm talking about. Do your own fucking research. You may not be tired of repeating yourself, but I am.

In other words, little if anything has been.

If it has been, I can almost guarantee you he couldn't present an argument for it. I mean, he can't even figure out that you're just testing him to see if he's full of shit.

Octaft: To which "he" are you referring. Surely, you are NOT siding with Tailor, who appears to have contributed NO value or substance with this distracting baloney crap article.

Quote from: tailor on March 05, 2014, 09:08:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 08:42:16 PM

By the way, Tailor, what are you doing in this forum? Are you just here to inform bitcoin investors of the perils of bitcoin, or do you have some meaningful purpose, besides spreading baloney distractions?

Is this an attempt to run off one of the unfaithful?

I'm here for the same reason any of us: talk about BTC. That doesn't mean I have to be part of the echo chamber though. Once in a while it's handy to have an unbeliever in the midst, just in case the emperor really is naked.

Like most here, I'm a BTC speculator - I do hold some, and even lost some when GOX collapsed. My investment in BTC infrastructure is limited to the few bucks I've paid in exchange fees though. I've been pleasantly surprised by the price increase since the spring of 2011, but I don't believe the price accurately represents any underlying value yet. The price thus far has been determined by limited investment of money, so the market cap is on paper only. Total investment divided by total coins available would be a much smaller number.

I have NO reason to dissuade your participation in any BTC conversation so long as you are NOT just spreading speculative hype without any backing and just stirring shit. It is easy enough to stir shit in these kinds of quasi-anonymous forums, and personally I find it a big waste of time to engage in any prolong conversations with shit-stirrers, especially in these kinds of forums.

From your description, it does sound as if you have invested more into BTC than a mere observer, and that would definitely give you a certain amount of street credibility.

Certainly, I do NOT claim to be any BTC expert b/c really, I only started looking into BTC in about November 2013, and my beginning to purchase BTC began in the same month.. IN that regard, I am fairly new to these kinds of BTC conversations - and so BTC has provided quite a few learning experiences for me.... which I expect such additional learning to continue into the future, absent some kind of BTC downfall, which based on my current knowledge of the situation, I do NOT expect any time in the near future.... As you would expect, I am fairly bullish on BTC, at least in the long term; however, I deny that my bullishness is a product of some kind of cultish behavior.... b/c I will adapt my investment strategies to the information that I have at my disposal and that I am able to understand and to credit.

At this time, I consider that it is quite likely that within the next week or two that BTC will go up into the 750-850 range.. and probably remain there for a little bit stay in the sub $1000 range for a few months before going to $1500 ish.. possibly this calendar year. Thereafter, we should get increases in prices approaching the 3-5K range by the end of 2015... However, volatility is likely to remain... and of course various negative developments could impede this trajectory. If this plausible trajectory seems materially affected by world events, then I will adjust my strategy accordingly, including pulling completely out of BTC, if that seems the most prudent course of action.

Quote from: hdbuck on March 05, 2014, 09:58:59 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 09:42:33 PM

Quote from: tailor on March 05, 2014, 09:08:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 08:42:16 PM

By the way, Tailor, what are you doing in this forum? Are you just here to inform bitcoin investors of the perils of bitcoin, or do you have some meaningful purpose, besides spreading baloney distractions?

Is this an attempt to run off one of the unfaithful?

I'm here for the same reason any of us: talk about BTC. That doesn't mean I have to be part of the echo chamber though. Once in a while it's handy to have an unbeliever in the midst, just in case the emperor really is naked.

Like most here, I'm a BTC speculator - I do hold some, and even lost some when GOX collapsed. My investment in BTC infrastructure is limited to the few bucks I've paid in exchange fees though. I've been pleasantly surprised by the price increase since the spring of 2011, but I don't believe the price accurately represents any underlying value yet. The price thus far has been determined by limited investment of money, so the market cap is on paper only. Total investment divided by total coins available would be a much smaller number.

I have NO reason to dissuade your participation in any BTC conversation so long as you are NOT just spreading speculative hype without any backing and just stirring shit. It is easy enough to stir shit in these kinds of quasi-anonymous forums, and personally I find it a big waste of time to engage in any prolong conversations with shit-stirrers, especially in these kinds of forums.

From your description, it does sound as if you have invested more into BTC than a mere observer, and that would definitely give you a certain amount of street credibility.

Certainly, I do NOT claim to be any BTC expert b/c really, I only started looking into BTC in about November 2013, and my beginning to purchase BTC began in the same month.. IN that regard, I am fairly new to these kinds of BTC conversations - and so BTC has provided quite a few learning experiences for me.... which I expect such additional learning to continue into the future, absent some kind of BTC downfall, which based on my current knowledge of the situation, I do NOT expect any time in the near future.... As you would expect, I am fairly bullish on BTC, at least in the long term; however, I deny that my bullishness is a product of some kind of cultish behavior.... b/c I will adapt my investment strategies to the information that I have at my disposal and that I am able to understand and to credit.

At this time, I consider that it is quite likely that within the next week or two that BTC will go up into the 750-850 range.. and probably remain there for a little bit stay in the sub $1000 range for a few months before going to $1500 ish.. possibly this calendar year. Thereafter, we should get increases in prices approaching the 3-5K range by the end of 2015... However, volatility is likely to remain... and of course various negative developments could impede this trajectory. If this plausible trajectory seems materially affected by world events, then I will adjust my strategy accordingly, including pulling completely out of BTC, if that seems the most prudent course of action.

thats it. bye bye

ps: you should listen/read a bit more rather than just writing pages and pages of BS.. i mean literally.. BULL s**t Roll Eyes

What drama.

Bye.. It was kind of nice to know you, even though your above comment make no sense... Oh, woops, you can't explain your above comment further b/c you can't hear me. Cry

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 05, 2014, 10:42:47 PM

Quote from: hdbuck on March 05, 2014, 09:58:59 PM

i mean literally.. BULL s**t Roll Eyes

Pro Tip: "literally" does not mean "i really really mean it, like seriously"

YEAH... hehehe.. I never thought of that.

Quote from: hdbuck on March 05, 2014, 11:59:31 PM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 05, 2014, 10:42:47 PM

Quote from: hdbuck on March 05, 2014, 09:58:59 PM

i mean literally.. BULL s**t Roll Eyes

Pro Tip: "literally" does not mean "i really really mean it, like seriously"

hum.. "literrally" have been used here according to its 1st meaning, which would be kind of a "word for word" when emphasizing on the BULL (& the s***) as Mr JJ here seems pretty bullish and talks a lot of s***

edit: here you go:

Quote

lit·er·al·ly (lĭt′ər-ə-lē)
adv.
1. In a literal manner; word for word:

Yes, it is quite meaningful and non-shit to engage in stone throwing and name calling concerning whether someone is bullish or bearish or dinosaurish or some other animal, literally

.

Oh, I keep forgetting that you can't hear me. That's too bad. I sure wished we could have literally fleshed this out, which is making me literally sad Cry

Quote from: hdbuck on March 06, 2014, 12:22:09 AM

Just had a revelation:

When you think about it, the famous BS expression refers to Bulls.. not Bears..
Hence, who is likely to talk with more sense?! Grin

edit: and plz dont tell me thats just some coincidence

The more you explain, the more sense you make ...
...
...
...
.. NOT

Quote from: octaft on March 06, 2014, 12:53:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 08:42:16 PM

Octaft: To which "he" are you referring. Surely, you are NOT siding with Tailor, who appears to have contributed NO value or substance with this distracting baloney crap article.

Am I referring to you? Nah. Am I siding with Tailor? Not necessarily. Does that mean I think the word of everyone who disagrees with him is gold, and will take it without a second thought, and without sources or references? Nope.

If you know something someone else doesn't, you don't tell them to do their own research. That's not helpful or adding anything to the conversation. Besides, even if the person you are addressing is a troll, and you have no hope of convincing them, maybe you convince someone who stumbled onto the forum and is lurking, and you make the community look good because you remained polite in the face of adversity. You also make it a lot harder for the people who accuse bitcoiners of being a cult to make their case when you're handling disagreement with politeness. It benefits pro-bitcoiners to actually argue their side, and argue it repeatedly so newbies can see without having to scour the forums. I really dislike the whole "it's the same old shit." Well, of course it is! They're newbies, they weren't around for the explanation the first time, and they're probably getting a bunch of stuff that you disagree with drilled into their heads. In their minds, they have done the research. It's your job to convince them their information is flawed, if that's what you think.

Just remember, YOU (collective you) asked those questions when YOU first found out about bitcoin, and if you didn't, I would consider that highly irresponsible. Be nice to the newbies, if it's ever going to get to 5k+, it will likely be on their backs.

Certainly, I get your point, and I largely agree with it as you have described it, above.

NONETHELESS, in my mind there remains a difference in how I am going to react and/or respond to someone who is asking naive questions versus someone who comes into a conversation with superficial conclusory comments and what appears to be accusations towards one side or another. In essence, naive questions will receive a better reception from me.... even if that naivete is inarticulate in various ways... which each of us are guilty of inarticulate rambling, from time to time.. and some of us more than others...

and back to bitcoin.... break up or break down..? I say up... I say this b/c it seems that we had our opportunity for down last week after we heard about the Gox bankruptcy filing, and meaningful and prolonged breaking down did NOT come.... so I predict that it is time for an up to between $750 and $850... .. however, it may take us approximately a week to get solidly into that price zone.

Quote from: podyx on March 06, 2014, 02:44:04 AM

Quote from: hdbuck on March 06, 2014, 12:22:09 AM

Just had a revelation:

When you think about it, the famous BS expression refers to Bulls.. not Bears..
Hence, who is likely to talk with more sense?! Grin

edit: and plz dont tell me thats just some coincidence

maybe so in the stock market but in the bitcointalk forums it should refer to bears

Podyx::::: That's BEARSHIT!!!! OK>>> Just practicing. Cheesy

Quote from: kkaspar on March 06, 2014, 09:48:22 AM

Quote from: aminorex on March 06, 2014, 06:33:33 AM

Thankfully I had not yet gotten around to ignoring kkaspar yet, so I saw this. Of course I have to ignore him now that he caught my attention, since he is a troll who adds nothing of value, regardless of viewpoint. Having seen the accusation of mendacity, I reply.

Quote from: hdbuck on March 05, 2014, 11:44:57 PM

Quote from: aminorex on March 05, 2014, 11:17:53 PM

Quote from: tailor on March 05, 2014, 08:13:12 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2014, 08:02:24 PM

including billions of dollars of investment going into its infrastructure and its wider and wider network of acceptance and use.

Billions of dollars? Really? That's hype on a whole new level.

Really. I can enumerate a billion in ventures without trying hard. It's only a thousand millions, and a 5-10 million startup is begun practically every week. Then there are miners, the foundation, numerous apps for every platform in currency, exchanges, miner manufacturers, purveyors of plastic, shopping sites, not to mention the dark net. BTC turns over 6 times annually. For each dollar of recurring cash flow multiple dollars of investment are rationally expected.

yeah try again. LIAR Wink

-> http://www.coindesk.com/following-money-trends-bitcoin-venture-capital-investment/

Quote

On the Bitcoin side, the $97.5m in venture capital that has been publicly reported underestimates the total, which would include unreported venture investment, by tens of millions of dollars. (...) Finally, it has been estimated that upwards of $200m has been invested in bitcoin mining hardware and infrastructure to date, a figure which exceeds even a less conservative estimate of the total venture capital invested in bitcoin to date.

we're far from a billion Roll Eyes

I am a liar, but you don't qualify to call me one, hd. In a more romantic world (not necessarily a better one) we would be drawing pistols at dawn. I know I am a liar, because I have to wage war against myself every day, to stay on a path of truth. I admit to indulging all too much rhetoric, by purely rationalistic standards (but definitely not by romantic ones). More struggle remains, I guess. But that rhetoric is not intended to deceive, and if I am in factual error I am eager to correct it, if only to steel my rhetoric against facile attacks by nattering nabobs of negativity.

I played loosely with words, and you called me out on it. For that I commend you, in that it was an excellent call, accurately identifying your perceived opponent's weakness, and maximizing it to your perceived advantage. I say perceived because I believe that, in fact, your own interests would be better served by seeking win-win collaboration and value-enhancing synergies than by exercising your oppositional personality disorder.

It would not, in fact, be "easy" for me to enumerate a billion in ventures full stop. I would have to include "miners, the foundation, numerous apps for every platform in currency, exchanges, miner manufacturers, purveyors of plastic, shopping sites, not to mention the dark net". Correction made.

One small aspect of the brilliance of bitcoin in its conception and execution is that it aggregates to its own agenda the resources previously dedicated to the fiat economy. While resources freshly allocated to bitcoin may be less than 2 billions (but certainly more than 1 billion, and hence deserving of the term "billions", rather than "millions", which would be mendaciously misleading) the resources now commanded by bitcoin, subservient and leveraged to its design goals, are on the order of tens of billions in USDnow terms. If bitcoin achieves its maximum conceivable penetrative success, without the expense of more than X USD of fresh purposefully dedicated infrastructure, it will have done so my commandeering trillions is pre-existing infrastructure, and re-purposing it.

By the way, hd, your attack, while well placed, lacked force. You quoted (to your credit) parts of the source which supported my position, and the conclusions of the quote were weak refutation, if they even qualified as refutation. The source enumerates 300 millions and explicitly states that this underestimates the total. Moreover the source does not include resources which I explicitly mentioned (without estimating). If the source were to underestimate by a factor of 3, it would not be incorrect as a result, thus both the source and my statement can be simultaneously true. Thus the source is no refutation at all. (That you choose obsessive oppositionalism over a synergetic approach, which would seek to extract what valid truth can be found instead of finding fault where perfection is lacking - everywhere, in fact - is probably not doing you good service.)

I should not have said "easily" but I persist that I can enumerate in excess of a billion, without excessive stretching. This would involved many disputable numbers and perhaps even disputable resources. They would still be enumerated, and their total would still be serving the interests of bitcoin's design, some in a dedicated manner, some in a multipurpose manner, the latter mostly inherited from pre-existing infrastructure, but fractionally co-opted by bitcoin. It would also include ventures not considered in the total reported by your source.

(If both law and principle prevent me from defending myself with lead or steel, I can at least man up enough to use the tongue granted me, in the most temperate but penetrating manner which I can promptly muster.)

You can summarize this long rant into "I'm right, even if I'm not right". Religious nuts like these create more harm then good to bitcoin imo.

That is NOT religion. It is an itemization of sources to support an argument. Every source does NOT need to be specifically known with exactitude in order to support the general idea behind the argument that ultimately is NOT a religion but instead a support for a direction and a prediction of a direction.

The ultimate prediction in this scenario is based in a reality (not religion) that the bitcoin network is expanding and resources are continuing to be allocated towards bitcoin networking resources. And, maybe in the end, a more fair characterization of the current expansion of the bitcoin network would be to suggest that current investments into the bitcoin network are in the hundreds of millions dollars and arguably into the billions with every day increasing amounts of investments being allocated thereto. And, really an attempt at distraction based on technical points (about whether it is millions or billions or gazillions) that are irrelevant to the main argument that the bitcoin network continues to expand which is ultimately going to affect its price in an upward direction in BTC price.. so hang on for those ongoing price increases... and hang on for the continued expansion of the bitcoin network.. which does NOT seem to be slowing down in any material way.

Quote from: raid_n on March 06, 2014, 10:45:27 AM

Quote from: kkaspar on March 06, 2014, 09:48:22 AM

You can summarize this long rant into "I'm right, even if I'm not right". Religious nuts like these create more harm then good to bitcoin imo.

This could be said of you as well.

Whats up with intelligent people arguing desperately against bitcoin in a bitcoin forum like Jorge Trollfi and you, kkaspar?
Is there a point in shouting bitcoin will fail to a group that mostly believe in bitcoin? What if you actually turn out to be right?
You gain absolutely nothing from this. And don't come with the "I'm only here to help" argument. Thats utter bullshit

It does become very diffcult to understand their purposes in being in these kinds of forums, and maybe in the end they are merely paid by some big bank or something to undermine bitcoin and to spread disinformation and to distract us from engaging in meaningful discussions about bitcoin.

Quote from: hdbuck on March 06, 2014, 11:00:10 AM

First, english is not my first language so apologize for not writing essays to rhetorically back up my POV,
Second, i'm not being not constructive; maybe you don't like my sense of humor or my cynicism (which is aimed mostly on Mark and bitcoin heists)
And third, i'm no fan of picky chitchat and referenceless tirades.

So yea, i'd have definitely enjoy drawing pistols at dawn with you, but lets not make it that dramatic, since deep down, we all are here for the same reasons.

Anyho, im not saying you always talk BS (although im certainly not going to agree about this billion $ you are fanatically conjuring). Just that i also dont like being insulted. And at least I backed up my answer to you with a reference, which you clearly did not when calling me a liar or stupid..

So lets burry the War Axe and move on to more interesting subjects.

And since you seem to like latin quotes here you go:

Oculi plus vident quam oculus

Cheesy

I am NOT in the practice of putting posters on ignore; however, I do place them in a mental category regarding whether they tend to add value.

Here, it appears that the ONLY value that HDBuck seems to add is the entertainment value of distraction from the topic of the thread.

Quote from: Tzupy on March 06, 2014, 01:08:20 PM

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on March 06, 2014, 12:18:50 PM

...
Yeah it went down to $102. Get it right guys !
...

Actually, on the 21st February on MtGox (death spiral), it went down to 92$. Speaking of getting it right... Wink

These ups and downs have to be more descriptive in the media to be accurate (I am NOT holding my breath) - b/c it is really misleading to suggest bitcoin went down to $92 in any meaningful way, when it only went down to $92 on one exchange in which many people did NOT have access to such $92 prices b/c money was NOT easily moved in or out.

And at the same time, overall BTC did get into the lower $400s at some point after the shutting down of GOX, yet when GOX was at $92, overall BTC was in the upper $500's I believe. And, as far as the $102, that was a flash crash on BTC-e. If a person had set their buy orders, low, then those people could have benefited from the $102 flash crash; however, the flash crash took place so quickly that it would have been difficult to place a buy order, while the flash crash was happening. I was on BTC e website at the time, and I saw that prices go from $610-ish to lower $500s, I was NOT looking at my screen when it went lower than that, and I had NO idea until later.

Quote from: kkaspar on March 06, 2014, 01:38:44 PM

Quote from: raid_n on March 06, 2014, 10:45:27 AM

Quote from: kkaspar on March 06, 2014, 09:48:22 AM

You can summarize this long rant into "I'm right, even if I'm not right". Religious nuts like these create more harm then good to bitcoin imo.

This could be said of you as well.

Whats up with intelligent people arguing desperately against bitcoin in a bitcoin forum like Jorge Trollfi and you, kkaspar?
Is there a point in shouting bitcoin will fail to a group that mostly believe in bitcoin? What if you actually turn out to be right?
You gain absolutely nothing from this. And don't come with the "I'm only here to help" argument. Thats utter bullshit

It's funny that you say that people are actually "arguing against bitcoin". I myself find that bitcoin is an interesting piece of software, but I also find myself arguing against the religious zealots who have gathered around bitcoin.
It's common for religious people to speak in those terms. I have often heard that if I don't agree with the Christian world view, then I'm actually against god. People aren't able to comprehend that there could be different understandings of god and if you don't accept the religious dogmas in Christianity, then you are not against god. It's not surprising to see the same mentality here.
I'm here for the same reasons then most probably are, to read and to speak my mind. I think that bitcoin doesn't need religious worshipping, so I can't see that I have to either worship it or leave. I like to keep an sober mind and take bitcoin as it is. An interesting piece of software that currently is an innovative gambling platform, but what also brought forward ideas that can trigger the start of something more."

It seems that we already determined, several times in the past day that this religious accusation that is leveled at bullish bitcoiners is bunk.

Quote from: kkaspar on March 06, 2014, 05:34:34 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 06, 2014, 04:53:24 PM

Quote from: kkaspar on March 06, 2014, 01:38:44 PM

Quote from: raid_n on March 06, 2014, 10:45:27 AM

Quote from: kkaspar on March 06, 2014, 09:48:22 AM

You can summarize this long rant into "I'm right, even if I'm not right". Religious nuts like these create more harm then good to bitcoin imo.

This could be said of you as well.

Whats up with intelligent people arguing desperately against bitcoin in a bitcoin forum like Jorge Trollfi and you, kkaspar?
Is there a point in shouting bitcoin will fail to a group that mostly believe in bitcoin? What if you actually turn out to be right?
You gain absolutely nothing from this. And don't come with the "I'm only here to help" argument. Thats utter bullshit

It's funny that you say that people are actually "arguing against bitcoin". I myself find that bitcoin is an interesting piece of software, but I also find myself arguing against the religious zealots who have gathered around bitcoin.
It's common for religious people to speak in those terms. I have often heard that if I don't agree with the Christian world view, then I'm actually against god. People aren't able to comprehend that there could be different understandings of god and if you don't accept the religious dogmas in Christianity, then you are not against god. It's not surprising to see the same mentality here.
I'm here for the same reasons then most probably are, to read and to speak my mind. I think that bitcoin doesn't need religious worshipping, so I can't see that I have to either worship it or leave. I like to keep an sober mind and take bitcoin as it is. An interesting piece of software that currently is an innovative gambling platform, but what also brought forward ideas that can trigger the start of something more."

It seems that we already determined, several times in the past day that this religious accusation that is leveled at bullish bitcoiners is bunk.

Yes... billions and zillions... bitcoin being the solution to world banking problems... bitcoin not having a deflationary problem etc... just regular bullishness..
Determined.

P.S. People who tell that Scientology is a religion are wrongfully accusing bullish scientists.
Determined.

Fair enough that you have your mantra or your view of things in which you seem to want to simplify and to describe BTC bullishness attitudes as a form of cultish behavior.

Frequently, there is some truth to any fiction and/or any propaganda, including the framework that you are outlining.

I do NOT really have any major problem with you having your viewpoint and expressing it - though I remain somewhat bothered that your simplification has a tendency to dilute and distract and to mislead.... and also sometimes it rises to the level of patronizing and criticizing guys for being blind followers - when that frequently is NOT the case. YET, I have seen that a few of your posts have made decent points, from time to time, so long as you steer clear from what seems to rise to personal attacks.

By the way, my various times stating, millions, billions or gazillions, it does NOT matter was to suggest that the exact number was NOT the point that was being made at that particular time... though, I recognize that sometimes, we may need to get fairly specific concerning the numbers that we are considering.... .. and in that regard if we were to take a snapshot of bitcoin's current infrastructure, we are going to come up with several ways to calculate the value of that infrastructure.. and some ways are going to produce larger numbers depending upon which aspects of the infrastructure that are included in such snapshot(s).

Quote from: delphic on March 06, 2014, 05:49:54 PM

Last weekend's British Sunday Times magazine contained a well-written article by Andrew Smith about who Satoshi might be. It examined about 10 candidates, most well-known in the bitcoin community, and did not jump to any conclusion. It puts the junk Newsweek article to shame.

WE HAVE to be a subscriber of the sunday times to read Smith's article. Accordingly, I have NOT seen Smith's article.

Quote from: kkaspar on March 06, 2014, 06:20:42 PM

Quote from: pietje on March 06, 2014, 06:14:48 PM

Quote from: kkaspar on March 06, 2014, 06:08:38 PM

Quote from: pietje on March 06, 2014, 06:06:09 PM

Quote from: kkaspar on March 06, 2014, 06:01:32 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 06, 2014, 05:57:41 PM

Is Satoshi cashing out or not? Please advise Undecided

Not yet, there is a planned number that's not yet reached...

Do you really think satoshi would have imagined that bitcoin would reach $1000 when he first started?
IF he had a planned number, im pretty sure we have already reached it.

Are you telling me that it even doesn't make sense to Satoshi that bitcoins price is this high?

Depends on your view. Do you really think that satoshi thought bitcoin would go to $1000 when he started at $0?

I don't know what Satoshi thought.. I don't even know who Satoshi is, so it's very hard to speculate his motives and plans. And that makes it funny that people are calling bitcoin "sound money"... they are actually trusting their wealth in the hands of someone they know nothing about... because if those old 1mil coins will be dumped, then bitcoin is back to costing cents and won't ever recover

This is fairly high speculation; however, I bet that if one million BTC were dumped onto one or more of the exchanges, BTC price would soon recover.

We may get prices into the $100 range, but I really doubt that BTC price would go much below $100 and it would likely NOT stay there for a very long time.... Although, surely that large of a dump would surely cause a certain amount of panic if we did NOT know from where those 1 million coins were coming.. and others would likely choose to short their coins upon speculation of the price drop... and sure the domino effect of dumping would cause a large dump and then a large repurchasing the coins at a lower price. I guess my point is that 1 million coin dump would NOT be the demise of BTC.. especially since currently there are only about 12.5 million BTC and some investors may consider an opportunity to buy cheap coins as a means to attempt to take control over a larger percentage of the BTC supply.

Quote from: zyk on March 06, 2014, 07:15:31 PM

Quote from: windjc on March 06, 2014, 06:59:36 PM

Quote from: zyk on March 06, 2014, 06:57:58 PM

Quote from: windjc on March 06, 2014, 06:53:29 PM

Interesting. I've been waiting on some news to come out so we could judge, based on market reaction, whether we are still in a bear market or not.

Here on the forum the bears are out in full force. But the exchanges have only gone down slightly. This is the kind of semi-neutral news that could be interpreted good or bad, with a slight lean towards bad.

But the exchanges are holding their own so far. If we go up from here, I might reconsider whether this bear market still has legs.

don´t see any bears here yet besides me and kaspar Wink

Right. But the two of you are taking up over 50% of the posts. Your enthusiasm about this news is obvious and representative.

its not enthusiasm believe me....its just feeling culpable for having sold the goxcoins profiteering from other peoples Stockholm syndrom..

or who were blinded to see through this " making the Ponzi work to rid the last idiot of his monies" which is still going on because nobody wants to

accept the fact that there have been 800000 stolen coins sold down to a hundred dollars at empty Gox.....

I would be rather worried that the plug is again pulled- why not tomorrow morning ? - nobody else suspicious why it is being held at 650 if you ´d really

come to your senses thinking the matters through ? ok then cheers Wink

I don't doubt that there are various plots to undermine BTC prices and to undermine the whole public perception regarding BTC. HOWEVER, the prices are ONLY going to be able to be held DOWN for so long. After a while the dam is going to have to burst b/c the whale bots are NOT going to be able to stop the upward momentum... whether that takes a few days, a few weeks or several months, the time is gonna come.. likely before the end of the calendar year in which we are probably be in the $1500 or more area.. outside of the control of the whale/bot manipulators or whoever else may be engaging in tactics to keep BTC prices down.

Quote from: ZephramC on March 06, 2014, 07:22:27 PM

Quote from: pietje on March 06, 2014, 06:14:48 PM

Quote from: kkaspar on March 06, 2014, 06:08:38 PM

Quote from: pietje on March 06, 2014, 06:06:09 PM

Quote from: kkaspar on March 06, 2014, 06:01:32 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 06, 2014, 05:57:41 PM

Is Satoshi cashing out or not? Please advise Undecided

Not yet, there is a planned number that's not yet reached...

Do you really think satoshi would have imagined that bitcoin would reach $1000 when he first started?
IF he had a planned number, im pretty sure we have already reached it.

Are you telling me that it even doesn't make sense to Satoshi that bitcoins price is this high?

Depends on your view. Do you really think that satoshi thought bitcoin would go to $1000 when he started at $0?

I think that Satoshi thought that bitcoin will go to $1000 and not stop there. I thing that Satoshi estimated bitcoin maximum final price to be either $160 000 (replacing annual VISA volume) or $330 000 (replacing gold) or $800 000 (replacing USA GNP). He did not estimate bitcoin to go over $4 500 000 (If all the world economy was converted to bitcoins.).

That would be totally amazing if bitcoin were to take over all of the world economy... and really that kind of scenario seems pretty highly unlikely... b/c there would seem to be some value in retaining some value in other asset classes.. besides bitcoin..

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 06, 2014, 08:00:07 PM

Quote from: Solarstorm75 on March 06, 2014, 07:54:54 PM

OK, so enlighten me: how many BTC does Bitstamp own, and how many does it owe its clients (i.e. what is the sum of the BTC balances of their clients' accounts)? Ditto for BTC-e and Bitfinex.

Don't know, if posted already:

https://www.bitstamp.net/article/statemen-regarding-recent-third-party-audit-report/

I see. For you "audit" means a statement by the company that they have done an audit and everything was OK. So it was only a misunderstanding on the meaning of that word, sorry.
[/quote]

Even though they do NOT provide a number, it is quite amazing if any exchanges are holding, in trust between 1 and 2 million bitcoins....

Quote from: gog1 on March 06, 2014, 09:00:22 PM

with his identity revealed, chance of a 'dump' or sell for money to assume a new life increased. so I guess the fall is 'justified'

I doubt that even if he were revealed that he would cash out. He may take some out, but NOT all in one shot.. that is too extreme and too out of character.

Quote from: fonzie on March 06, 2014, 09:13:05 PM

Who will crash the market first?
1.Satoshi
2.Mark
3.FBI
4.(put name of unknown hacker, druglord... in here ____ FONZI)

Quote from: virtualfaqs on March 06, 2014, 09:27:09 PM

So will BTC be on the cover of the next Newsweek?

Either Satoshi or Bitcoin will be Time's man of the year.... hehehe Cheesy

By the way, what is CCMF? Is it "Choo Choo Mother Fucker?"

Quote from: zyk on March 06, 2014, 09:48:11 PM

who the fuck is hodling the bitch up at 660 Huh

so its all goverment controlled already?

Personally, I do NOT believe that this BTC price matter is govt controlled. What I believe happens, is that a wall is created... for example at $700, and then the wall creator, whale, manipulates to make it appear that there is a lot of selling resistance, and then he allows build up of sellers to build up until all of a sudden he will pull the wall and also probably stimulate sales incrementally and the price will go up. He then cashes in on a lot of those sold BTC and then puts up another wall.. maybe at 700 or some other amount that the market will NOT easily penetrate... rinse and repeat ... these whales are making a killing... and they do so within the parameters of what we, as a conglomerate, are willing to pay for BTC.

Quote from: tailor on March 06, 2014, 09:58:26 PM

Quote from: FierceRadish on March 06, 2014, 09:51:39 PM

Interesting choice of words. Denies "being the creator of Bitcoin"...

We all know bitcoin evolved. Only the cultist wing-nuts believe it was created.

Tailor:

I believe that my thinking is kind of aligning with yours on this point... maybe the longer we read each other's posts the more our thinking aligns... hehehe...

Surely there was some early creations that became inspirational to the evolution of bitcoin... and the evolution does seem kind of fanciful, when one thinks back upon it...... and whether some of the story or the lore of bitcoin is true may NOT be relevant - however, these kinds of stories will be used by pro and by cons to argue their points or even to argue concerning the original intent... and the direction that we should go with bitcoin.

The white paper does describe aspects of the original intent, and maybe some of those concepts within the white paper will have to evolve to in order to adapt bitcoin to the real world bitcoin application and maybe unexpected turns of events that may take place, to the extent that the unexpected may come about? Yes... evolution .. NOT creation.. . hehehe

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 07, 2014, 12:07:36 AM

Quote from: porcupine87 on March 07, 2014, 12:03:11 AM

Quote from: derpinheimer on March 06, 2014, 11:54:26 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 06, 2014, 11:51:40 PM

today was a low volume day

~10,230 coins were traded for ~6,800,000$

price ranged from 675 - 650

i'm pretty sure depth on both sides is meaningless

How can depth be meaningless? The ask end filled, the bid side didnt.

You mean people are expecting it to break out? So they placing more orders? I would say the depth is more meaningful, when the price of the order is realistictly reachable in a couple of hours.

But this now 7300btc to 700$ might hard to beat, but maybe some of them get pulled...

whats going to make it break is when suddenly the mini walls on the front lines won't be replaced when filled

coming soon...

T-4 hours with 78% probability

YEAH... and the whales pull some of these walls (under their control) on purpose b/c they want to buy up those orders and move the price upward and suck up all those coins

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 07, 2014, 12:08:08 AM

Quote from: porcupine87 on March 07, 2014, 12:03:11 AM

But this now 7300btc to 700$ might hard to beat, but maybe some of them get pulled...

How will this look when we are at $3000-$4000 per BTC? Impossible for me...

It will look the same or at least very similar, just less volatile b/c it takes 5 times more fiat to manipulate.

Quote from: virtualfaqs on March 07, 2014, 12:15:54 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 07, 2014, 12:14:02 AM

Quote from: virtualfaqs on March 06, 2014, 09:27:09 PM

So will BTC be on the cover of the next Newsweek?

Either Satoshi or Bitcoin will be Time's man of the year.... hehehe Cheesy

By the way, what is CCMF? Is it "Choo Choo Mother Fucker?"

What about Mark? haha I wonder if mainstream knows Mark Karpelese more than Satoshi.

Yeah... that is why we had that sword picture of Mark stabbing Satoshi b/c Mark considers Satoshi to be his competition ... that fucking evil little brat!!!

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 07, 2014, 01:51:35 AM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on March 07, 2014, 01:40:14 AM

It's not him. http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/m/discussion?id=2003008%3ATopic%3A9402Satoshi replied.

How do we know that isn't Dorian trying to trick us? Huh

WOW... You seem to be onto something Walsoraj..... that is really really funny to NOT hear from Satoshi in that particular thread for 5 years ... and then all of a sudden for some reason Satoshi Nakamoto, if that is really Satoshi, feels such a need to comment within that particular dormant thread and to say that he is NOT Dorian... ... I thought that we had NOT heard from Satoshi since about mid-2011 or so... which would then cause me to begin to believe that maybe Satoshi is Dorian.. b/c why would the real Satoshi care enough to reply in a dormant thread concerning whatever is going on with Dorian... In this regard, the real Satoshi should NOT give a flying fuck about whatever is going on with Dorian or that Dorian is being confused for Satoshi.. unless Dorian is the real Satoshi...

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 07, 2014, 04:09:35 AM

Let me get this straight. You are obtaining your probabilities by detecting a pattern of behavior of the bots? or how else would you be able to get percentages that change daily? So maybe for example approximately on average every 4 days the bots break up or down... and the longer they go without breaking out, the more the likelihood for breaking out?

Quote from: oyvinds on March 07, 2014, 04:30:21 AM

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ap-exclusive-man-denies-hes-bitcoin-founder

Several times during the interview with AP, Nakamoto mistakenly referred to the currency as "Bitcom." When shown the original bitcoin proposal that Newsweek linked to in its story, Nakamoto said he didn't write it, and said the email address in the document wasn't his.

I kind of enjoy when people refer to it as bitcorn... makes me chuckle on the inside.

Quote from: Nicholas-Carraway on March 07, 2014, 04:35:57 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 07, 2014, 02:04:54 AM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 07, 2014, 01:51:35 AM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on March 07, 2014, 01:40:14 AM

It's not him. http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/m/discussion?id=2003008%3ATopic%3A9402Satoshi replied.

How do we know that isn't Dorian trying to trick us? Huh

WOW... You seem to be onto something Walsoraj..... that is really really funny to NOT hear from Satoshi in that particular thread for 5 years ... and then all of a sudden for some reason Satoshi Nakamoto, if that is really Satoshi, feels such a need to comment within that particular dormant thread and to say that he is NOT Dorian... ... I thought that we had NOT heard from Satoshi since about mid-2011 or so... which would then cause me to begin to believe that maybe Satoshi is Dorian.. b/c why would the real Satoshi care enough to reply in a dormant thread concerning whatever is going on with Dorian... In this regard, the real Satoshi should NOT give a flying fuck about whatever is going on with Dorian or that Dorian is being confused for Satoshi.. unless Dorian is the real Satoshi...

Friend,

Please read again what you just wrote, as though you were another person reading it for the first time. Your mind is cluttered with trifles. This has nothing to do with what brought you here.

Sincerely,
Nick

Nick -

Pray, be more specific. I have reread the paragraph, and I see NO problem with it, in terms of communicating my intended message.

Maybe you could highlight whatever portion(s) of the paragraph that bothers you or makes you believe that there is some kind of miscommunication, wordiness or misunderstanding on my part. I'm surely interested in learning my faux pas or whatever other communication deviation that you believe that i may have made therein, so long as you remain civil about the matter.

Otherwise, maybe you would like to send me a PM to clarify if you are inclined towards more personal discussions of this topic - that seems to deviate from the bitcoin subject matter of this thread... Usually personal matters, if that's what you are getting at, are better dealt with in private. Let me know, either way.

Sincerely,

JJG

Quote from: jojo69 on March 07, 2014, 06:15:12 AM

I am liking this new tone of conviviality and manners in this thread.

Yeah,

Maybe Nick and I could go for a coffee... or a beer... ? Undecided

....

Quote from: Nicholas-Carraway on March 07, 2014, 06:43:59 AM

Maybe you would like to send me a PM to clarify if you are inclined towards more personal discussions of this topic - that seems to deviate from the bitcoin subject matter of this thread... Usually personal matters, if that's what you are getting at, are better dealt with in private. Let me know, either way.

Sincerely,

JJG

..........

JJG,

Please feel free to PM me at any time because I am curious to hear more about these personal matters to which you are referring.

Cheers,
Nick

Just sent PM to you.. ...

Quote from: niothor on March 07, 2014, 07:30:43 AM

Quote from: Holliday on March 07, 2014, 07:26:35 AM

Quote from: Yololintian on March 07, 2014, 07:23:27 AM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 07, 2014, 07:18:58 AM

180,000 coin move:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zshct/4ee89f7cf824a85ad5f11d52604ffdebe9f01302bcea8ddec0/

Its not Satoshi's is it?

Satoshi's coins are all untouched 50 bitcoin block rewards. Is that what has been moved in this link? I haven't bothered to click the link.

Nope , those coins are still untouched. Probably gox coins.
2011 coins Wink

. Some old stuff.

I read through the Reddit thread, and the movement of the 180K BTC seems to be ongoing, and guys posting in that thread are following the movement(s) of the BTC and trying to figure out the significance, exactly of what is going on and whose coins they are and what is happening with them.

I don't understand the meaning of 143 million days destroyed... ...? What could that mean...? I mean 500 thousand years destroyed... but none of us are going to live that long.. and so what's the significance?

Quote from: raid_n on March 07, 2014, 08:06:28 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 07, 2014, 08:02:13 AM

I don't understand the meaning of 143 million days destroyed... ...? What could that mean...? I mean 500 thousand years destroyed... but none of us are going to live that long.. and so what's the significance?

Coinage is a way of separating cold wallets and coins that are not in circulation from those that are regularly spent.
Basically any coin that is not involved in a transaction starts to accumulate coin age. It is a way of measuring if "old" money is being re-activated The amount of coin age "destroyed" tells you basically how many coins that have been sitting in addresses for a long time have been re-activated and used in transactions

Thank you. I believe that I understand now... Nothing of value is really being "destroyed," but instead we have a measurement of the reactivation of a bunch of fairly dormant coins to create that many days of coinage destroyed in one pop. On reddit they had calculated it to be an average of 800 days per coin, which makes them on average late 2011 or early 2012 since they had been last activated.

There are quite a few bad news scenarios, but definitely a good news scenario would be if they were gox coins and showing that gox still had access to some capital. If these coins are NOT connected to gox, then there could be a number of scenarios.

Quote from: jojo69 on March 07, 2014, 08:41:41 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 07, 2014, 08:02:13 AM

I don't understand the meaning of 143 million days destroyed... ...? What could that mean...? I mean 500 thousand years destroyed... but none of us are going to live that long.. and so what's the significance?

the way you have been throwing your weight around in here lately I expected better

I have little weight to throw around. Sad

Quote from: jojo69 on March 07, 2014, 09:05:30 AM

it is a tough thread to keep up with, you got an avatar, you get a pass

How do I get an avatar?

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 07, 2014, 11:23:40 AM

As I wrote that it is absurd that we were going up, everybody was bashing on me and was writing "to the moon" Cheesy

Now we go down and these morons are silent.

Thanks to your "to tha moon" BS I also get in panic and bought @685 with every money I had (50K). And now I´m fucked.

Surely we are all making estimates about what to do based on our information and knowledge.. .and sometimes based on what others say.

In my thinking it is pretty unlikely that you are fucked at that $685 buy-in price, unless you sell and lock in your losses then you would be fucked. My average buy in price is around that same amount and I am NOT worried (but I only have invested about half that amount, so far, and my investments are diversified.... into other things as well.... so I am prepared to lose all, if things were to go too sour).

Anyhow, I am buying more BTC if the price goes into the $500s, which may be soon... but I only buy in small increments.. maybe 1 BTC at a time, or less. if the price goes lower, I will buy more.. but I also have a buy budget... only a certain amount at a time.

I'm NOT selling or considering selling based on the news that I have NOW in front of me (unless I know for sure the price is going further down by like 10% from my sell, then I may attempt to increase my holdings buy buying back in at the lower price). At this time, I expect that if I were to sell, then the price would reverse and start to go back up.

Also, I expect within a week or so, we should be back into the upper 600s... and within a couple of weeks.. maybe stretching out into the 1 month time frame we should be between 750 and 850 area....

Of course, I could be wrong... and that wouldn't be the first time... .. so we each need to go with our gut and our risk profile and our current diversification of investments to make our decisions.

Quote from: jojo69 on March 07, 2014, 05:06:09 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 07, 2014, 04:41:16 PM

Quote from: jojo69 on March 07, 2014, 09:05:30 AM

it is a tough thread to keep up with, you got an avatar, you get a pass

How do I get an avatar?

you had to have one uploaded before the hack

What hack? And, are we gonna get the feature back... I mean, I would like to have my own personal avatar.

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 07, 2014, 05:08:10 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 07, 2014, 05:01:26 PM

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 07, 2014, 11:23:40 AM

As I wrote that it is absurd that we were going up, everybody was bashing on me and was writing "to the moon" Cheesy

Now we go down and these morons are silent.

Thanks to your "to tha moon" BS I also get in panic and bought @685 with every money I had (50K). And now I´m fucked.

Surely we are all making estimates about what to do based on our information and knowledge.. .and sometimes based on what others say.

In my thinking it is pretty unlikely that you are fucked at that $685 buy-in price, unless you sell and lock in your losses then you would be fucked. My average buy in price is around that same amount and I am NOT worried (but I only have invested about half that amount, so far, and my investments are diversified.... into other things as well.... so I am prepared to lose all, if things were to go too sour).

Anyhow, I am buying more BTC if the price goes into the $500s, which may be soon... but I only buy in small increments.. maybe 1 BTC at a time, or less. if the price goes lower, I will buy more.. but I also have a buy budget... only a certain amount at a time.

I'm NOT selling or considering selling based on the news that I have NOW in front of me (unless I know for sure the price is going further down by like 10% from my sell, then I may attempt to increase my holdings buy buying back in at the lower price). At this time, I expect that if I were to sell, then the price would reverse and start to go back up.

Also, I expect within a week or so, we should be back into the upper 600s... and within a couple of weeks.. maybe stretching out into the 1 month time frame we should be between 750 and 850 area....

Of course, I could be wrong... and that wouldn't be the first time... .. so we each need to go with our gut and our risk profile and our current diversification of investments to make our decisions.

I know, normaly I would not panic because I bought in november for 14k @780 and was chilled all the time. But now I´m only worried becaude of these hundrets of thousands of Bitcoin movements from the wallets since yesterday. So I was a bit in panic mode.

Are you an ALL or NOTHING kind of investor?

Personally, I would become too stressed, if I were to put too much fiat at any one price.

Surely, I have been somewhat nervous that I began investing in BTC at its peak... in late November at $1200, but I am very glad that I currently have brought down my BTC buy in average to a little below $700... but I started during a rush up in prices... and I wanted to get in to get started... and in November I bought 1.24 BTC for $1500 or something like that.... got my feet wet and bought little by little, thereafter. ...

Now I have about 36 BTC.. something like that.... And, like I said, if we get into the $500s, again, I will buy a little more BTC.. I get a bit nervous when the price is dropping b/c the value of my whole BTC holdings are dropping and also I get nervous b/c I am NOT sure what my next BTC buy point should be... I would like to purchase for as cheap as possible.. but I do NOT want to miss the boat, if the price dips and then raises again.. That's somewhat an individual guestimate.. and sometimes I will get a bit spontaneous and buy a little here and there just to make sure I get some. I'm thinking 1 BTC at $580... and then if it goes below $550 to buy another and then $530 buy a couple more... that would pretty much max out my March buying limit.

Quote from: soullyG on March 07, 2014, 05:16:17 PM

Andreas Antonopoulos has set up a fund to donate money to Dorian Nakamoto - if anyone's interested you can find the Reddit thread here.

Quote

Hi everyone, Andreas M. Antonopoulos here.
I'm fundraising for Dorian Nakamoto, the person named in the newsweak article.
I have no idea if this person is Satoshi, though it seems increasingly unlikely. However, it doesn't matter either way. If this person is Satoshi, then the funds are a small "thanks" and won't make much of a difference.
However, if this person is not Satoshi, then these funds will serve as a "sorry for what happened to you", help with medical bills his family is facing, any legal bills they may incur, or anything else. Most of all, it serves to soften the damage caused by irresponsible journalism and to demonstrate the generosity and empathy of the community, which I know is huge
Here's how it will work. I will collect donations to a single bitcoin address, posted below, with the following rules:
Donations accepted until the end of March.
At the end of March, donations will be converted to USD and delivered to Dorian Nakamoto.
If the donation is rejected by Dorian, then the funds will go to a charity of his choice
If he doesn't want to choose a charity, funds will be donated to the Electronic Frontier Foundation
Any funds sent after the deadline, will be donated to Dorian at a later date, or a charity of his choice or EFF as above.
After the end of March, I will make my best effort to contact Dorian and deliver the donations in USD. I will document as much of that process as possible to prove the donations were delivered, as long as that documentation does not affect Dorian's privacy.
The blockchain will provide transparency of all funds donated, which will not move from that address until the funds are delivered to the intended recipient based on the rules above.

The donation address is:
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA1
Donations for Dorian Nakamoto: 1Dorian4RoXcnBv9hnQ4Y2C1an6NJ4UrjX -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: GnuPG v1.4.13 (Darwin) Comment: GPGTools - http://gpgtools.org[1]
iQIcBAEBAgAGBQJTGfpbAAoJEDObAhCxYy501RoQANnJtZYPVqo2d/M2vcbNBfQ0 zUnFum+B4YxrjIeRkM4m9mDvnRWN3xccUARFi7QeW4C9qnuvKJOUMHX4Iw48sBgD liXGEVUqkvvUPNkeS0QY5kdD+H/8xFxtlKrowzKFweZBU44HOnz00yISRW/Q4wIi THUTiorZESNi8+2yaIvAW6HViS8jSD7GM37Xfe/s5lhOjKe30LnFRrlDBmveMS8p vxOwB6WgyradedlyqoWTMsH7wj/9vRw0aPCsaCnSTIwG0tkSDcTQf83pPHxYpi6B gGPxXoGC/TOt0yCQRclHSYm92e+fJiEApq3JUOLVxGAmAk9qF7B8dL5tcq5C71fb H48cEe91tNv9L9nyluPxpZnMcd+Qfc38EtKviTkDazpdU7M30J2ttP2amfh4PDkW W+ABvKjyy/MO8j4YHGUCZA9YxgAAoY2yvk1Cf4lHNA/c5Pg3aE8B2rt0wx8fbGoY jyHn3w/0Ty4yhWfpp+cMAeZuIqL4MJMBl2e28pgm7B5Kum8rt/jWreEyRQpCuwRK eIgdGBZpv5UjR/3TL9GC1xcRDcXPGcrVCngOQFUr/3oQ3Zibhxk0z26bvLpYTdvc 9o0VJP3rO8R31Nim1F629/hmklHUwS+nvPH/u/jgswKl4cWB29dVszj3ubB5Opry [2] BjZ8H0MoTbE8KNH9XZaO =dp1E -----END PGP SIGNATURE-----

My PGP key for blockchain.info email address is well known, widely disseminated and can be validated by many others. Use only the address above for donations, all other addresses are scams

That is REALLY ingenious. I like it.

Quote from: hdbuck on March 07, 2014, 05:48:17 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 07, 2014, 05:44:30 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 07, 2014, 05:43:44 PM

any bad news, or are we going down because low price going slightly lower is scary?

180,000 gox coins moving around

helloww, you cant be seriously thinking such "info" is effecting the price?
whats happening is just that there hasnt been a whale pumping the price for a while now and people just start cashing out. simple.

WE can rely on HdBuck to provide a NON-SENSICAL explanation. WE know that both whales and regular people take advantage of momentum.. and the whales sometimes manipulate to see how far they can push it or exacerbate it to their further advantage.

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 07, 2014, 05:50:27 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 07, 2014, 05:44:30 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 07, 2014, 05:43:44 PM

any bad news, or are we going down because low price going slightly lower is scary?

180,000 gox coins moving around

They are being divided up into smaller and smaller wallets until they reach the approximate value of a single frappuccino.

Then, he will be able to quickly purchase millions of frappuccinos ... one quick booster shot at a time.

Duplicate

Quote from: Nemo1024 on March 07, 2014, 06:00:29 PM

Quote from: aminorex on March 07, 2014, 05:48:41 PM

NATO jets going to Lithuania, Poland.

OSCE observers blocked from entering Ukraine.

GHWBush carrier group in the Med near Greece, battlegroup missile destroyer Truxton enters the Black Sea.

Russian media accuses Lithuania of training Ukrainian "extremists".

Moldovan P.M. requests U.S. military to contain Putin. (Transdneistra is occupied by Russian troops.)

Looks like NATO wants to commemorate 15 years since the start of bombing of Yugoslavia by starting to bomb Ukraine.

Maybe they will go straight to Moscow...? GO BIG!!!!!

Quote from: jojo69 on March 07, 2014, 07:46:37 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 07, 2014, 07:38:32 PM

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ztyp9/the_twobit_idiot_coup_or_death_for_the_bitcoin/

2-bit guy now claims that foundation members had inside info and were able to get their money out while everyone else got screwed. He is threatening to release info on Monday. Interesting.

Quote

To Peter, Jon and their supporters:

You have 72 hours.

holy fuck

That is fair to give foundation members 72 hours to come clean... I sense that this kind of negative publicity is NOT good for bitcoin.. but it does seem to be the way of the world that certain positions allow access to information and privilege that may not be afforded to regular people.... HOW far does it go? HM?

Quote from: fr33d0miz3r on March 08, 2014, 12:49:10 AM

If you look at the daily closing prices, you could see something like this:

And if you look at the 3-day closing prices, you could see a double bottom pattern (right now testing the neckline):

The first chart depicts three potholes - illustrating that our trip to the moon has been delayed by three potholes in the BTC road that leads us to the rocket launch pad.

Quote from: solex on March 08, 2014, 01:16:26 AM

Quote from: Adrian-x on March 08, 2014, 01:13:12 AM

Quote from: solex on March 08, 2014, 12:50:43 AM

btw. Can anyone see this? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=506152.0;topicseen

No. what should it be?

Noise on reddit about gox user data...

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zumlu/somebody_is_trying_to_sell_mtgox_user_data/

Yeah... transfer whatever BTC there is 180K-ish to NEW wallets, and sell the user data...

All these transactions would be accomplished in the process of transferring ownership to the NEW exchange that will be opening soon..... maybe under supervision of bankruptcy oversight?

Quote from: Miz4r on March 08, 2014, 02:59:07 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 07, 2014, 11:52:26 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQmIRea_FWo

he dosnt say "i'm no longer Involved" he clearly says "I'm Not Involved in Bitcoin"

but i'm starting to think its him

watch this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrrtA6IoR_E
he is sooo lying

He sounds like he has absolutely no clue what Bitcoin is. I can't fathom how people can actually think this is THE Satoshi Nakamoto. Are they blind or do they want to believe it's him so much they can't think and see properly anymore? I don't get it it's just beyond stupid.

Each of us get different senses of the situation... when I see someone live or video and then I see how they are responding verbally and physically... with Dorian, I get the sense he is overcompensating...... and b/c of that I get the sense that he may be the real one... but then I do NOT see the whole conversation, just clips, here and there.

Then, I agree that he does NOT want to be bothered and he wants to deny, and that denial should be respected.

The ONLY reason that we in the bitcoin world may have a right to know SN and his intentions is that if he realizes that he has about a million BTC, and he decides to begin to move those BTC... b/c of some reason, such as his anonymity having been breached. Then we may need to know what he intends to do with those BTC.. dump them or to distribute them more widely... .. b/c dumping large quantities of BTC would have a traumatic effect on BTC prices...

And, there may be some other reasons, that it may be good to know about the real SN.... . even though overall, I kind of agree with the sentiment that it does NOT matter so much, so long as the real SN wishes to remain anonymous or unknown.. so long as he does NOT do something extreme with the BTC under his potential control.

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on March 08, 2014, 03:52:33 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 08, 2014, 01:00:22 AM

NOTE: Thanks for the user who proposed a pterosaur for extreme bullish predictions. Now looking for an ichtyosaur to match.

It's more that Nemicolopterus crypticus is clearly a Chinese chicken. And based on its name, a cryptographic chicken to boot.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com.au/news/2008/02/080211-mini-pterosaur.html

But happy to be of service in any event.

bullish or bearish.. over the weekend...

Based on this current downtrend in BTC prices (over the last couple of days)... I guess the BTC market remains a little worried about additional negative and uncertainties in the news, such as: GOX moving of coins, Japanese declaration of BTC as a non-currency and this twobit guy potentially outing the foundation members on Monday... Maybe those news items are driving our current downward (sell) pressure.

I am a dollar cost averaging kind of guy when it comes to BTC.. but I want to time my multiple small purchases to low points in the price... to the extent possible.. and the extent reasonably predictable... .. So maybe over the weekend, we may hit $580? Possibly? Or should I just suck it up and buy at $610-ish..., if we return to that point (which we are nearing such price, as I type - we are bouncing down to $619-ish.. as I am typing)?

Certainly, if we can establish some kind of reason that BTC is going lower in price in the near future, then I will wait out and buy at that lower price point.

Quote from: nrd525 on March 08, 2014, 04:33:50 AM

Somebody is trying to reinforce the Weekend Dip myth =)

You mean like a whale or a bot? I get the sense that these whales and bots are somewhat limited in how much they can do... surely they can manipulate, but they have to take advantage of public sentiment, so some extent... and if public sentiment is NOT strong, then the whales and/or bots can edge the price in one direction or another.. ... That's my current thinking on the bots whale situation and their ability to manipulate... .. unless of course, if they are NOT profit motivated, then that could change the dynamics more, even though it would cost the manipulator more money to accomplish the objective... b/c that kind of manipulator would be likely to be running at a loss just to get their way.. such as keeping the price down.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 08, 2014, 05:00:16 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 08, 2014, 04:00:07 AM

Based on this current downtrend in BTC prices (over the last couple of days)... I guess the BTC market remains a little worried about additional negative and uncertainties in the news, such as: GOX moving of coins, Japanese declaration of BTC as a non-currency and this twobit guy potentially outing the foundation members on Monday... Maybe those news items are driving our current downward (sell) pressure.

I have no idea about what the price may do over the weekend. Even my "Slumber" predictions, for ~20--24 h ahead, are not expected to hold if there is too much volume late into the night -- and there seems to be no way of predicting those Albertosaurs.

However, I believe that the Chinese exchanges are the main drivers of the price, simbply because they are 80% of the volume, and appear to have greater liquidity. However, their traders do not seem to be very much tuned into bitcoin news. Most of those news are about developments in the West that have no impact in China. If the Chinese react to some development (like the Bloomberg rumor), it is because some Western exchange reacted strongly to it first (so strongly that arbitrage was overwhelmed), and then the Chinese went into panic buy or panic sell. That is my impression.

EDIT: typos.

You may be correct that is why sometimes we get these BTC price spike reactions that seem to be disconnected from anything that we can really wrap our minds around besides pure momentum - driven by volume, largely from chinese exchanges, as you mentioned... even though sometimes it is alleged that aspects of the chinese volume is fake.... but sometimes it seems logical to achieve even additional volume when the trading fees are zero or close to zero.

Quote from: Peter R on March 08, 2014, 05:02:34 PM

Quote from: Hen0xyd on March 08, 2014, 04:48:52 PM

Quote from: Peter R on March 08, 2014, 04:41:05 PM

Quote from: hd060053 on March 08, 2014, 04:30:43 PM

whats the reason for this down-syndrome ?

I don't know but I think it is uncertainty regarding the movement of old coins that could be tied to MtGox. Here is the latest discussion:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zvx7i/coinsight_now_shows_another_160000_btc_transaction/

There is a "special page" on coinsight regarding Mtgox BTC transactions with some note : "Mt.Gox reports at least the following types of transactions through this API: withdrawals, dust sweeping, big output splitting. Some transactions have been spotted on this API recently with multiple successful block confirmations, which could just be a result of Mt.Gox wallet software not seeing the confirmations or could be new undocumented API behavior." :

http://coinsight.org/mtgox/largest

It looks like we also have blockchain evidence that a large sum of old coins was just moved:

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

(I think people tend to over react to large bitcoin-days-destroyed events, however.)

I bought a little at $607 - hoping that we are NOT going any lower.... As I type, we continue to float in that price territory.... Yet if we do go lower, then I suppose my next buy price will be around $570-ish or lower.. depending upon how long it takes to get to that price, if at all. I do tend to think that we have a hard time shooting to the moon with this potential damning news regarding the bitcoin foundation hanging over our heads to be released some time on Monday.

Quote from: tailor on March 08, 2014, 07:00:33 PM

Quote from: LMGTFY on March 08, 2014, 04:49:55 PM

If a bank creates a BTC fund they make money every time someone buys or sells a stake in that fund. If people want an easy way to buy or sell BTC (and I suspect they do), then the banks will want to profit from that need.

...and it's also possible they want their own positions; I assume if that's the case they're already buying (and I haven't looked for evidence of that).

Unlikely they're buying anything right now. The total dollar value in play on the exchanges is so small any activity on their part would change the market.
It's the same reason big investment blocks don't play with penny stocks. There just isn't money to made on the scale a bank would be interested in

Add to that the fact that the exchanges at this point are unreliable. Banks aren't about to put money into something they can't easily get it back out of.

I agree for the reasons stated by Tailor that it is likely that large and medium financial institutions are almost completely out of investing in BTC... and additionally, if any large or medium financial institution were to begin to invest in BTC in order to attempt to manipulate it... they may consider themselves caught in a sort of catch 22.... b/c adding Fiat to BTC drives up the price.... .. but strategically, they could attempt to come in to BTC covertly and to buy up BTC supplies... and once in use their large quantity of BTC to manipulate BTC prices..... I sense that medium and large institutions consider BTC to be too small potatoes, at this point.

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on March 08, 2014, 08:05:34 PM

Quote from: fotosonics on March 08, 2014, 07:27:27 PM

http://techcrunch.com/2014/03/08/googles-jared-cohen-its-obvious-bitcoin-like-currencies-are-inevitable/

Google now jumping in. Already seeing a rise but not sure if Cohen's statement is why.

But maybe.

He is using my nick

Quote

Google Director of Ideas and former technology advisor to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Jared Cohen, says that digital “crypto-currencies” like Bitcoin are here to stay.

Are you going to file for trademark infringement or copyright infringement? Or glory in the added publicity to your cause? Undecided

Quote from: PoolMinor on March 08, 2014, 08:32:26 PM

I decided I would take one for the team and sell some BTC, this usually triggers an upswing immediately afterward. You're welcome! Cry

That's crazy.... but thanks for the good intentions.... I guess Tongue

Quote from: Teppino on March 08, 2014, 09:26:56 PM

Quote from: PoolMinor on March 08, 2014, 08:32:26 PM

I decided I would take one for the team and sell some BTC, this usually triggers an upswing immediately afterward. You're welcome! Cry

yep it worked, made me smile but i'm sorry for your (hope small) loss, unless you were just joking Tongue

NOW>>>> if we could just get up to $666 again... Maybe that could be the new poll question, even though the old one has NOT been met and the time has NOT run, yet? I am inclined to think we will NOT quite make it to $666 today.. but maybe tomorrow or Monday.. even though we still seem to have the Monday (two bit) news looming over us...

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 09, 2014, 02:28:33 AM

Classic dead cat bounce showing on the 1hr. Last Monday's pennant isn't looking too successful now.

Next Monday, 2bit is going to release info on foundation members. $180 by Friday, Adam?

Yeah, worst case scenario of news could cause a dramatic decrease in prices, but 70%, seems doubtful. Maybe we may get another flash crash into the upper $400s, but even that seems questionable, if we do NOT even know the DAMNING news.

Quote from: magicmexican on March 09, 2014, 02:32:44 AM

implying that anyone cares about the 2bittrash, his 5 minutes of internet fame were over a week or 2 ago.

Maybe you are correct, and maybe, just maybe, 2bit is ONLY an attention whore.... I kind of doubt that. There may be some there, there? It seems that we cannot know for sure (or condemn 2bit), until we see the presentation of the DAMNING evidence.

Quote from: Nightowlace on March 09, 2014, 02:58:05 AM

$480 by Monday night.
$800 by Friday morning.

Based on numbers that I completely pulled out of my ass using absolutely no graphs, charts, or history. And that's probably as good of a guess as anyone trying to predict the Bitcoin market with all those fancy tools.

Certainly, I like specifics... and thanks for that. You are suggesting an immediate negative reaction to the 2 bit news, but we will be over it by Friday. I tend to think that we can make 800 by friday, only if there is NOT any kind of negative reaction to the news. If we get a negative reaction, like you predict (down to 480), then we could NOT make anymore than upper $600s by Friday... I'm kind of pulling this out of my ass, too... Wink

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 09, 2014, 06:19:59 AM

I have not seen evidence of fake traffic at Huobi, but I suspect that there may be fake traffic at OKCoin.

First, traffic at OKCoin slows down at night, but does not stop completely like at Huobi; there is a steady backgrount traffic 24/7.

Second, most Huobi transactions occur randomly at the two ends of the current spread, as one would expect from buyers and sellers independently moving to meet each other's position; whereas many of those at OKCoin seem to occur in at random places in the middle of the real spread, as if the buyer and seller had a rendez-vous there.

OKCoin also seems to have an excess of small transactions. (I should make a histogram to confirm that.)

Here is a plot of a few minutes's worth of transactions. Each dot is a transaction (except that transactions with same timestamp and price may hide each other). Dot size is proportional to BTC volume.

Am I seeing things?

I'm seeing dinosaurs, too..... or maybe train cars being assembled in the form of a carrousel? Kind of like a circus.

I do NOT claim to know very much about how one exchange may differ from another or the way that a bot may work based on the way it interfaces with the exchange. However, couldn't some of the explanation of differences be based on how bots may need to be programmed differently based on the exchange rules, fees and maybe based on times of greater or lesser volatility?

But, yes, I can understand why you may consider certain patterns to infer that the trades may NOT really be taking place b/c they do NOT make sense to be occurring under those circumstances... even if it were due to the programing parameters of bots... that are paying nearly zero fees.

Quote from: ChrisML on March 09, 2014, 03:22:50 PM

Quote from: hdbuck on March 09, 2014, 03:15:18 PM

wowz almost 45BTC raised for dorian. nice nice

What if he does not want them? lol.

there is already a plan for that.. convert to dollars and offer dollars.. if he does not want then donate to his charity and then if he does not name a charity, then it goes to MOI.... me...

Quote from: gentlemand on March 09, 2014, 05:43:51 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 09, 2014, 05:38:13 PM

MtGox's FUD cloud is still blocking the sky. not sure if its going to rain....
market seems to be holding its ground.
with MtGox DB being analyzed and two bit Idiot trying to make some noise, we have a very interesting week ahead of us.

Mr Idiot seems to have rolled back his hyperbole and isn't publishing his whatever it is tomorrow http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/

That is one strange and anti-climactic release.

Initially, he said that he had goods, and he is saying that he still has goods, but releasing the goods will likely NOT cause the effect of the resignation of two bitcoin foundation members. Therefore, he is going to regroup and get back to his life....

And, really he does NOT disclose whether he will get back to releasing anything at any point in the near future, which causes me to believe that this issue is dead... at least for a few weeks - though TwoBit has made himself out as a bit of an admitted drama queen... so he may be back, sooner than we otherwise expected with this theme of bitcoin foundation corruption.

Quote from: Hawkix on March 09, 2014, 09:50:50 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on March 09, 2014, 09:39:16 PM

Serious question:
What's the point of the mtgox data dump, and even looking into it?
It only means we get a glimpse into their *internal* accounting... how does that tell us anything that we don't know already.
Possible that I'm missing something though, so please correct me if I didn't think this through enough...

You can probably bind the data in the MtGox database with blockchain data. Then, you can find all MtGox used Bitcoin addresses. Then, you can find where the rabbit hole goes ...

Yes, could answer questions concerning whether GOX is lying, which could impact individual account holders and could impact the bitcoin supply and could impact public impression of bitcoin and security related issues.. or fears.

Quote from: solex on March 09, 2014, 11:16:11 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 09, 2014, 11:12:03 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 08, 2014, 03:44:42 PM

Involuntary takings are theft regardless of who is doing the taking.

Or how.

Taxation.

Taxation and theft are of two different categories...

Also, I would NOT categorize taxation as an involuntary taking.... ... even though there are some difficulties in electing within which society (community) and set up that we want to live. The role of government tends to be a complicated topic... and such topic has been especially inflammatory from time to time....

Oh yeah, and theft within the government can be quite complicated as well.... yet mostly different from the kinds of thefts going on in bitcoin circles.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 09, 2014, 11:18:38 PM

Quote from: gentlemand on March 09, 2014, 05:43:51 PM

Mr Idiot seems to have rolled back his hyperbole and isn't publishing his whatever it is tomorrow http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/

The "bitcoin community" is haunted by zombies -- people and entities that should have been expelled and forgotten long ago but are still walking around doing damage. Mark Karpeles and the Shrem Karpeles & Friends Foundation are the two egregious examples. (The former founder of Brazil's BitcoinRain is our local example here.)

It seems that being "a respected member of the bitcoin community" is more like a nobility title than a job. Once you become one, you remain one for life, no matter what mess and damage you do.

Two-bit idiot accused two members of the Board of having had privileged access of some sort at MtGOX. Now he says that he is backing down because the community closed ranks around those people, and because he does not want to give ammunition to "bitcoin's formibdable enemies". Can't he see that by doing so he is doing just that?

MtGOX could be dismissed as a scam by done by a single-person, it the community had been quick to disown him as soon as his management of the exchange became suspicious and harmful to his clients. Instead we saw many "respected members of the community" support him.

See for instance Roger Ver's emphatically vouching for the solvency of MtGOX, when he must have been conscious that he had not enough evidence of it. Was he motivated by his friendship to Mark, or by his belief that preserving the image of MtGOX was important to preserve the public image of bitcoin? Either way, he apparently thought that such motive was more improtant than preventing investors from putting their money and bitcoins into a dubious business. In the end, his testimonial only hurt the image of bitcoin even more: "Is there anyone in that community that we can trust?"

The about-face of the Two-Bit Idiot seem to be another instance of that mentality, and to me has the same effect as Ver's testimonial...

I agree with some of your conclusions about bitcoin leaders need to set good examples, and surely the community of bitcoin leaders is evolving.

Nonetheless, I think you are over simplifying and potentially misleading if you try to equate these various bitcoin personalities, b/c they each have their particular circumstances in which they are NOT equals.

Shrem was likely set up by the US Govt (harassment of sorts).

Still do NOT know why Ver vouched for Mt. Gox.. that has NOT been explained, yet b/c we still do NOT know what is going on, exactly, with GOC.

Two bit idiot has his own conflicting issues, and based on the current evidence, there is NO way that we can be sure that he is acting in betrayal or bad faith in having had pulled back from his earlier threat to publish insider information regarding potential shenanigans of foundation members.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 10, 2014, 12:58:06 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 12:40:43 AM

Also, I would NOT categorize taxation as an involuntary taking.... ... even though there are some difficulties in electing within which society (community) and set up that we want to live. The role of government tends to be a complicated topic... and such topic has been especially inflammatory from time to time....

Try not paying and see what happens. Just because a gang outnumbers you does not make the robbery any the less.

I prefer NOT to get into drawn out discussion about the role of government, and/or the extent to which there is a consensual nature to being governed or being a part of a society.

Nonetheless, I am suggesting that equating individualized theft (or being robbed by a corporation or being defrauded) with taxation will cause considerable oversimplification about the differing concepts and differing dynamics.

Viewing taxation as theft (or as an involuntary taking) is bringing the wrong framework b/c questions about taxation are a lot more complicated than theft or other categories of involuntary takings. For example, you mention the size of the gang... and this seems to be fuzzy logic to view government as a gang.. .. as if you are being ganged up upon and that government is something apart from one's self... even though there remain tensions between community and self, theft is different.

Quote from: wachtwoord on March 10, 2014, 01:32:02 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 01:14:24 AM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 10, 2014, 12:58:06 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 12:40:43 AM

Also, I would NOT categorize taxation as an involuntary taking.... ... even though there are some difficulties in electing within which society (community) and set up that we want to live. The role of government tends to be a complicated topic... and such topic has been especially inflammatory from time to time....

Try not paying and see what happens. Just because a gang outnumbers you does not make the robbery any the less.

I prefer NOT to get into drawn out discussion about the role of government, and/or the extent to which there is a consensual nature to being governed or being a part of a society.

Nonetheless, I am suggesting that equating individualized theft (or being robbed by a corporation or being defrauded) with taxation will cause considerable oversimplification about the differing concepts and differing dynamics.

Viewing taxation as theft (or as an involuntary taking) is bringing the wrong framework b/c questions about taxation are a lot more complicated than theft or other categories of involuntary takings. For example, you mention the size of the gang... and this seems to be fuzzy logic to view government as a gang.. .. as if you are being ganged up upon and that government is something apart from one's self... even though there remain tensions between community and self, theft is different.

It actually is the exact same thing. It's just that in the case of taxation the group doing the taken are much more powerful and at the same time believe (for the most part) that they are morally in the right (which they aren't in my opinion).

You as a citizen have a role in government, and you have a choice in where to live.

Government is not Other people ganging up on you - even though frequently, it may seem as if an individual cannot do much to change the society in which s/he lives, but government is NOT the same as a thief.

I have already made my point several times that a person asserting that the government is the same as a thief is failing to recognize complexity.. and chooses to simplify to the point of losing the point.. and if you keep repeating it over and over that government is the same it is the same, that does NOT prove any point. Accordingly, there is NOT much use of continuing such a conversation in which I am saying that government is different from a thief.. and you (and others) are saying that government is the same as a thief.. We are NOT getting anywhere... and probably, it does NOT matter too much to the subject of this thread or the original point that was being made, which I believe was involving Mt. Gox taking BTC from customers.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 01:50:11 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 12:40:43 AM

Quote from: solex on March 09, 2014, 11:16:11 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 09, 2014, 11:12:03 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 08, 2014, 03:44:42 PM

Involuntary takings are theft regardless of who is doing the taking.

Or how.

Taxation.

Taxation and theft are of two different categories...

Also, I would NOT categorize taxation as an involuntary taking.... ... even though there are some difficulties in electing within which society (community) and set up that we want to live. The role of government tends to be a complicated topic... and such topic has been especially inflammatory from time to time....

Oh yeah, and theft within the government can be quite complicated as well.... yet mostly different from the kinds of thefts going on in bitcoin circles.

We have a fundamental difference in outlook. It is a commonly believed lie that if the group of people have a certain cloak of legitimacy and do the taking ostensibly for the benefit of the victims and go by a certain "transparent" process that such involuntary takings are not in fact theft. All this means is that it is a successful theft, not something else. I will not budge on this. If I am imprisoned and I eat the prison cafeteria food to keep from starving, it does not mean I volunteer to be imprisoned. I do not consent.

I don't see any problem with agreeing to disagree. It seems that i already addressed this in my other post.. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg5614843#msg5614843).

So it is likely that we would be repeating ourselves and NOT getting anywhere to pursue such a conversation.

I understand that it can be difficult to make changes in law or society - especially, the larger the community. Don't get me wrong, I do NOT appreciate having certain rule imposed upon me; however, I try to find ways in which I can accept and live in harmony without proclaiming that the government is some alien entity that is separated from my human interests. Personally, if I were to pick one thing that irritates me the most about government is NOT the concept of taxes, but instead it is the fact that money has too much influenced government and those with a lot of money are NOT paying their fair share of taxes. Accordingly, regular people have to pay more taxes b/c of the money corruption that has infiltrated into the most recent government(s)... worse in the past 20 years or so.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 02:07:18 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 01:56:40 AM

Quote from: wachtwoord on March 10, 2014, 01:32:02 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 01:14:24 AM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 10, 2014, 12:58:06 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 12:40:43 AM

Also, I would NOT categorize taxation as an involuntary taking.... ... even though there are some difficulties in electing within which society (community) and set up that we want to live. The role of government tends to be a complicated topic... and such topic has been especially inflammatory from time to time....

Try not paying and see what happens. Just because a gang outnumbers you does not make the robbery any the less.

I prefer NOT to get into drawn out discussion about the role of government, and/or the extent to which there is a consensual nature to being governed or being a part of a society.

Nonetheless, I am suggesting that equating individualized theft (or being robbed by a corporation or being defrauded) with taxation will cause considerable oversimplification about the differing concepts and differing dynamics.

Viewing taxation as theft (or as an involuntary taking) is bringing the wrong framework b/c questions about taxation are a lot more complicated than theft or other categories of involuntary takings. For example, you mention the size of the gang... and this seems to be fuzzy logic to view government as a gang.. .. as if you are being ganged up upon and that government is something apart from one's self... even though there remain tensions between community and self, theft is different.

It actually is the exact same thing. It's just that in the case of taxation the group doing the taken are much more powerful and at the same time believe (for the most part) that they are morally in the right (which they aren't in my opinion).

You as a citizen have a role in government, and you have a choice in where to live.

Government is not Other people ganging up on you - even though frequently, it may seem as if an individual cannot do much to change the society in which s/he lives, but government is NOT the same as a thief.

I have already made my point several times that a person asserting that the government is the same as a thief is failing to recognize complexity.. and chooses to simplify to the point of losing the point.. and if you keep repeating it over and over that government is the same it is the same, that does NOT prove any point. Accordingly, there is NOT much use of continuing such a conversation in which I am saying that government is different from a thief.. and you (and others) are saying that government is the same as a thief.. We are NOT getting anywhere... and probably, it does NOT matter too much to the subject of this thread or the original point that was being made, which I believe was involving Mt. Gox taking BTC from customers.

Yes, I do have a role in government, and that role is to dismantle it or more accurately to allow it to dismantle itself as it is currently doing at an accelerated pace. Society needs governance, but that governance must comply with the values of the society itself, which in the West means consent of the governed. The American revolution was an attempt at governance with consent, but it was shortly hijacked (around 1787) when the constitutionalists nullified the Articles on Confederation. Clearly neither the Aritcles nor the Constitution were capable of embodying the ideals for which the war was fought. Back then the technology to implement truly distributed governance was not available. It now is. Monopoly governance is not as Thomas Paine suggested a necessary evil. It is not necessary at all, at least not anymore.

I doubt that we are, in any time soon, going to achieve a world in which government is completely unnecessary. That seems to be pie in the sky thinking. It is possible that bitcoin can move us in a direction in which the role of government (and its money) is completely changed; however, in the short term, we are NOT going to be "saved" from government.

Surely, I have NO problem with guys having visions about ways in which we can improve society; however, some kind of cold turkey abolition of government does NOT seem to be ANY kind of meaningful or realistic solution. There are too many vested interests and too many people would be hurt with such radical measures.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 02:15:38 AM

To suggest that a complex theft is not a theft merely because of the complexities involved is laughable. It's like arguing that a Boeing 747 isn't an airplane.

It appears that you have a passion to argue about this kind of a topic, and possibly accomplishing such by merely continuing to reassert your same argument over and over that government taxation is theft. That is NOT a meaningful argument.

When I mention complexities, I am NOT wanting to get into this topic b/c there are a lot of governments - national, state and local, and government serves a wide array of functions - military, policing, regulatory, social benefits, economic. Yes, theft may occur within government; however, when the topic of theft came up, we were referring to the actions of GOX. Gox is NOT a government as far as I know. Gox was NOT engaged in taxation... So to compare the thievery activities of GOX to taxation is taking us far afield from the original point(s) being made.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 10, 2014, 02:27:16 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 12:55:46 AM

Shrem was likely set up by the US Govt (harassment of sorts).

Well, I read that FBI document with charges against him, and they seem rather serious.

If the charges were drug buy/sell/use one could say that they had nothing to do with his role in the bitcoin movement. But the charges are about his failure to do his duty as the AML person in his exchange. Hard to dissociate that from bitcoin.

It is expected that his friends would defend and support him, but having him as a spokesman for bitcoin, taking part in bitcoin roundtables, etc. looks very bad from out here.

Besides, why would the USG want to harass him? For his role in bitcoin? But why him and not other prominent bitcoiners?

Charges does NOT a case make. The government has to prove the charges, and if these are criminal the burden is beyond a reasonable doubt. There are a lot of people who have been suppressed and oppressed by receiving criminal charges. And, apparently, the evidence regarding Shrem came from his voluntary providing information b/c he was assisting the government to establish regulation...

I get the sense that he is a 24 year old that did NOT realize that he was getting in over his head, and the government was setting him up b/c of his role in bitcoin. From what little I know about Shrem, I doubt that he had criminal intentions.

Let's say for example, that you are engaged in a bank money exchange and your customers are drug dealers. You may or may NOT be involved in their drug dealing business... but it seems that the government is trying to target someone who did NOT have illegal intentions....

Have you heard about some of the recent FBI stings regarding local bitcoins in which FBI agents pose as customers for bitcoins, and they tell sellers on localbitcoins that they are going to use the bitcoins to buy drugs (or some other illegal activity). Why the hell should I give a flying fuck for what purpose the buyer wants the bitcoins, I am just selling bitcoins. Anyhow, it is a form of set up to bust people who are selling bitcoins.... people who may have no intent to do anything illegal; however, the fact that the buyer tells them what he is going to do, then the seller becomes an accomplice. those are bullshit setups.

The govt may pick shrem b/c he seems to be an easy target in terms of resources at his disposal and ability to defend himself and he also seems to be a fairly honest kid that just speaks his mind... without realizing that he is being set up in some technicalities.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 02:25:42 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 02:08:45 AM

I understand that it can be difficult to make changes in law or society - especially, the larger the community. Don't get me wrong, I do NOT appreciate having certain rule imposed upon me; however, I try to find ways in which I can accept and live in harmony without proclaiming that the government is some alien entity that is separated from my human interests. Personally, if I were to pick one thing that irritates me the most about government is NOT the concept of taxes, but instead it is the fact that money has too much influenced government and those with a lot of money are NOT paying their fair share of taxes. Accordingly, regular people have to pay more taxes b/c of the money corruption that has infiltrated into the most recent government(s)... worse in the past 20 years or so.

I don't agree to disagree when the issue at hand is whether or not I am a slave. This isn't hyperbole. I can't leave the country without permission and even if I am allowed to leave, I still must file U.S. tax returns for ten years. I can't vote to change the system. There is no option on the ballot to leave the elected posts empty for the next term. Democracy is not consent of the governed anyway; it is consent of the majority or more accurately the plurality.

Slavery won't go away because it is immoral. It will go away because it is economically obsolete. There's just not much profit in it anymore and it is becoming less profitable by the day.

I am sad that you live in a state of mind that you feel that you are being forced. Yes, I agree with the government in A LOT of ways; however, mentally, I recognize the fact that I live in a community of people. The world is NOT just about me, and in this community of people, a variety of compromises have been made. Some of the compromises are pure bullshit... Well, maybe a lot of them are pure bullshit that are in place to oppress people. I recognize the law as a weapon of the rich to oppress the poor - however, it seems that my mentality is different from yours b/c I am NOT going to expend all of my energies bitching and moaning about how unfair it is and suggesting that the only solution is to throw out the baby and the bathwater by some kind of ousting of government. That is too outrageous b/c there are a lot of people in the community, besides me.

Personally, I believe that if there were ways to remove money influence in politics, and we were able to elect people to serve the interests of the people as a whole, rather than the rich, then we would move a long way towards a better society.

If you and I sat down for a beer, I am sure that there would be a lot that we would agree upon, but I am NOT going to agree that the starting place is to shut down government (tomorrow or next week). Change needs to be more incremental and focused, if such change is going to be meaningful and a product of society rather than a product of the will of only a few.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 10, 2014, 03:08:09 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 02:42:43 AM

I get the sense that he is a 24 year old that did NOT realize that he was getting in over his head, and the government was setting him up b/c of his role in bitcoin. From what little I know about Shrem, I doubt that he had criminal intentions.

We should not get ahead of the tribunals, but have you read the document?
http://www.justice.gov/usao/nys/pressreleases/January14/SchremFaiellaChargesPR/Faiella,%20Robert%20M.%20and%20Charlie%20Shrem%20Complaint.pdf
(Check the details of Count Four, specifically.)

I had NOT previously read through the charges document. I understand that in order to get this past a judge, prosecutors need plea evidence specific enough, that if true, would be a prima facie case of a violation of the law. However, if the matter goes to court, they have to prove all of the applicable alleged facts are in fact true and would arise to a violation of the law, and mitigating factors are NOT sufficient in order for a jury to find that Shrem had criminal intent. Even glancing over count four, I cannot tell whether Shrem is some kind of evil guy acting with bad intentions - that he knowingly was engaged in some kind of joint operation with BTCKing. Surely, when Shrem was dealing with millions of dollars; probably, it would have been advisable to receive legal consultation concerning his actions. I thought that Shrem was attempting to run a legitimate bitcoin business, but maybe he got too involved. Also, there may be some mitigating circumstances also that could let Shrem off the charges b/c Shrem was NO longer engaged in business relations with BTC King between late 2012 into 2013.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 10, 2014, 03:08:09 AM

The issue is not whether Shrem is innocent or not, but what is sensible policy for a Foundation or other people who wish for bitcoin to succeed. Like in the case of MtGOX, it seems that people cannot separate personal friendships from the promotion of bitcoin; almost if "bitcoin" was a specific group of people, rather than a computing/economics project.

Who is to say? I would imagine that members of the board of the bitcoin foundation are quite attached to Shrem.. From my understanding, they are NOT unified in their opinion about whether to associate with him or whether they should help him or associate with him. I heard an interview with Shrem, and he was a point person between the bitcoin foundation and GOX and the bitcoin foundation was involved in working with GOX. Shrem may have access to information to which other bitcoin foundation members do NOT have access. And, there is some utility in that.

Karplees and Shrem are NOT the same people. Accordingly, Karpeles may have irritated bitcoin foundation members more b/c he was engaging in activity that seemed to be more damaging to bitcoin as a whole - even though Karpeles has NOT been brought up on any charges, yet.

Surely, these are recent evolving developments, and we do NOT know (at least I do NOT know) the level upon which members of the bitcoin foundation had personal relations with either Karpeles or Shrem, and surely it is possible that the bitcoin may take a vote and take an official position to support or to distance themselves from either Karpeles or Shrem.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 03:17:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 02:50:31 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 02:25:42 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 02:08:45 AM

I understand that it can be difficult to make changes in law or society - especially, the larger the community. Don't get me wrong, I do NOT appreciate having certain rule imposed upon me; however, I try to find ways in which I can accept and live in harmony without proclaiming that the government is some alien entity that is separated from my human interests. Personally, if I were to pick one thing that irritates me the most about government is NOT the concept of taxes, but instead it is the fact that money has too much influenced government and those with a lot of money are NOT paying their fair share of taxes. Accordingly, regular people have to pay more taxes b/c of the money corruption that has infiltrated into the most recent government(s)... worse in the past 20 years or so.

I don't agree to disagree when the issue at hand is whether or not I am a slave. This isn't hyperbole. I can't leave the country without permission and even if I am allowed to leave, I still must file U.S. tax returns for ten years. I can't vote to change the system. There is no option on the ballot to leave the elected posts empty for the next term. Democracy is not consent of the governed anyway; it is consent of the majority or more accurately the plurality.

Slavery won't go away because it is immoral. It will go away because it is economically obsolete. There's just not much profit in it anymore and it is becoming less profitable by the day.

I am sad that you live in a state of mind that you feel that you are being forced. Yes, I agree with the government in A LOT of ways; however, mentally, I recognize the fact that I live in a community of people. The world is NOT just about me, and in this community of people, a variety of compromises have been made. Some of the compromises are pure bullshit... Well, maybe a lot of them are pure bullshit that are in place to oppress people. I recognize the law as a weapon of the rich to oppress the poor - however, it seems that my mentality is different from yours b/c I am NOT going to expend all of my energies bitching and moaning about how unfair it is and suggesting that the only solution is to throw out the baby and the bathwater by some kind of ousting of government. That is too outrageous b/c there are a lot of people in the community, besides me.

Personally, I believe that if there were ways to remove money influence in politics, and we were able to elect people to serve the interests of the people as a whole, rather than the rich, then we would move a long way towards a better society.

If you and I sat down for a beer, I am sure that there would be a lot that we would agree upon, but I am NOT going to agree that the starting place is to shut down government (tomorrow or next week). Change needs to be more incremental and focused, if such change is going to be meaningful and a product of society rather than a product of the will of only a few.

How can you possibly infer that opposition to monopoly governance equates to opposition to community? That's the most baffling non sequitur I can imagine. If you think rule of law is essential (and it is) then you cannot let the law be subverted by allowing one entity only to interpret and enforce that law, because then you effectively have rule of man and not rule of law. Of course politicians are going to be bribed and the wealthy are going to bend the State to their will. They have the incentive to do so. No reform is possible with the existing incentive structure in place. I'm not advocating an armed insurrection. That would be futile. I am advocating participation in the system to the least amount possible until in crumbles under its own weight.

I still ponder over whether we made any progress in our conversation regarding this topic. I remain of the position that it is my belief that government serves way to many roles to either discontinue it or to completely ignore it. If you do NOT participate in government, then others will, and the others who are participating are going to have more power and leeway b/c you are NOT participating. I do NOT see that as a solution that will cause some ultimate pie in the sky collapse... as you are suggesting. I also find it very unproductive for people to be spouting off that government is NO good without offering solutions. I seem to be repeating myself.. in regard to saying that I cannot see it productive to just say get rid of all government.. makes little to NO sense to me.

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on March 10, 2014, 03:21:14 AM

Jay

If someone tells you they are going to buy drugs with bitcoin then you have a legal duty not to sell bitcoin to them. Just like you have a legal duty not to sell someone a pillow if they tell you they are going to use it to asphyxiate their mother in law. And no this is not a govt conspiracy against pillow dealers.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accessory_(legal_term)

Thatt you may consider this to be an unreasonable intrusion of the government into your affairs is not particularly relevant.

We are dealing with floating facts, here.

Also, I understand that there are laws, so YOU do NOT need to lecture me on relevancy of certain laws to the facts that we are batting around.....

If I were in the business of trying to get rid of my bitcoins through localbitcoins and attempting to eek out a living.. I could give a flying fuck, what people are using the bitcoins for, and I find it completely troubling that they want to tell me that they are going to do something illegal with them..... b/c I could care less.... and I do NOT need to know those kinds of details,,,, Most people are NOT going to be so stupid as to involve you or to tell you that they are going to use the btc to engage in illegal activity.. (same with cash if I was giving someone cash for gold... they gave me gold and told me what they were going to do with the cash.. I dont care).... .... and especially, some 20 year old kids are NOT going to know the difference... b/c they are merely just trying to sell some bitcoins and to make a profit... so it is kind of a set up for some stupid ass FBI agents to be telling people these things about how they plan to use their bitcoins to buy drugs or to be able to hire a killer or some thing in order to attempt to get the 20 year old kid involved... the kid doesnt care.. just wants to make money on the bitcoins... The FBI agent is telling details in order to set up the kid for a sting.. ... THAT'S RIGHT.

ON the other hand, once we know that there is this kind of FBI targeting of people on localbitcoins who are just trying to make some cash to accuse them of being some kind of accomplice... therefore, some of them (Including myself if i were to do it), would chose NOT to sell bitcoins to people who are spouting off about doing illegal activities with their bitcoin.

It's the same if I am trying to sell my motorcycle... and I am getting a little bit desperate b/c NO one wants to buy it for $2,000. Everyone who contacts me is offering me less than what it is worth. Finally, I get someone who says that he will pay me $2000 for it... and I am happy and O>K... let's just do the deal.. why the fuck do you need to tell me that you are going to use the motorcycle to rob a bank... I do NOT care and I do NOT want to know what the fuck you are going to use it for... and most people who really were going to use it that way would NOT tell those kinds of details.. And, all I want to do is to sell you my motorcycle.. and i do not give a shit about what you are going to use it for.. I am NOT trying to enable you to rob any bank... even though that ends up being the result... .and then I am pissed off b/c I cannot sell my motorcycle b/c you had to go and tell me what you were going to use it for...

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 10, 2014, 04:10:34 AM

From http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zz21j/mtgox_2014_hack_database_revealed_live_from_mark/, presumably derived from the database leak:

Quote

Balance SUM for ALL USERS by currency. [][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][] Currency: AUD Balance: 924,124.65121 Currency: BTC Balance: 951,116.21905382 <-- That fat fuck has been lying!! Currency: CAD Balance: 320,184.36558 Currency: CHF Balance: 99,487.07308 Currency: CNY Balance: 297,775.78994 Currency: DKK Balance: 112,264.56207 Currency: EUR Balance: 5,634,625.59531 Currency: GBP Balance: 921,892.96793 Currency: HKD Balance: 740,519.14894 Currency: JPY Balance: 384,885,150.13700 Currency: NOK Balance: 91,346.00305 Currency: NZD Balance: 58,224.95320 Currency: PLN Balance: 1,645,194.67364 Currency: RUB Balance: 551,162.54477 Currency: SEK Balance: 15,335.84383 Currency: SGD Balance: 43,193.59706 Currency: THB Balance: 666,464.33497 Currency: USD Balance: 30,611,805.67481 [][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][] Total BTC Deposits: 19,065,241.307202 Total BTC Withdrawl: 18,563,466.149383 ------------------------------------ BTC Difference: 501,775.157819 [][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][]

Note that, if this is legit, it does not show what MtGOX had, but what it owed to its customers at the time the database snapshot was taken. (Is this right?)

EDIT: markup

And, ONE Of my problems with this data, is that I cannot figure out from when the data snapshot was. What's the date?

Quote from: podyx on March 10, 2014, 08:06:42 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit_Disgrace on March 10, 2014, 08:05:13 AM

Why did the "MTGOX HACKED!!!" thread dissapear? Did Blitz erase it? Huh

it was illegally shared

might have something to do with it

in other news: winklevosses dumping on our asses Cool

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2004fg/111k_coins_just_moved_any_information_on_this/

Aren't they starting the winkdex... they are going to need to transfer some coins around in order to get the winkdex started, no?

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 11:16:10 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 09:24:08 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 03:17:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 02:50:31 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 02:25:42 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 02:08:45 AM

I understand that it can be difficult to make changes in law or society - especially, the larger the community. Don't get me wrong, I do NOT appreciate having certain rule imposed upon me; however, I try to find ways in which I can accept and live in harmony without proclaiming that the government is some alien entity that is separated from my human interests. Personally, if I were to pick one thing that irritates me the most about government is NOT the concept of taxes, but instead it is the fact that money has too much influenced government and those with a lot of money are NOT paying their fair share of taxes. Accordingly, regular people have to pay more taxes b/c of the money corruption that has infiltrated into the most recent government(s)... worse in the past 20 years or so.

I don't agree to disagree when the issue at hand is whether or not I am a slave. This isn't hyperbole. I can't leave the country without permission and even if I am allowed to leave, I still must file U.S. tax returns for ten years. I can't vote to change the system. There is no option on the ballot to leave the elected posts empty for the next term. Democracy is not consent of the governed anyway; it is consent of the majority or more accurately the plurality.

Slavery won't go away because it is immoral. It will go away because it is economically obsolete. There's just not much profit in it anymore and it is becoming less profitable by the day.

I am sad that you live in a state of mind that you feel that you are being forced. Yes, I agree with the government in A LOT of ways; however, mentally, I recognize the fact that I live in a community of people. The world is NOT just about me, and in this community of people, a variety of compromises have been made. Some of the compromises are pure bullshit... Well, maybe a lot of them are pure bullshit that are in place to oppress people. I recognize the law as a weapon of the rich to oppress the poor - however, it seems that my mentality is different from yours b/c I am NOT going to expend all of my energies bitching and moaning about how unfair it is and suggesting that the only solution is to throw out the baby and the bathwater by some kind of ousting of government. That is too outrageous b/c there are a lot of people in the community, besides me.

Personally, I believe that if there were ways to remove money influence in politics, and we were able to elect people to serve the interests of the people as a whole, rather than the rich, then we would move a long way towards a better society.

If you and I sat down for a beer, I am sure that there would be a lot that we would agree upon, but I am NOT going to agree that the starting place is to shut down government (tomorrow or next week). Change needs to be more incremental and focused, if such change is going to be meaningful and a product of society rather than a product of the will of only a few.

How can you possibly infer that opposition to monopoly governance equates to opposition to community? That's the most baffling non sequitur I can imagine. If you think rule of law is essential (and it is) then you cannot let the law be subverted by allowing one entity only to interpret and enforce that law, because then you effectively have rule of man and not rule of law. Of course politicians are going to be bribed and the wealthy are going to bend the State to their will. They have the incentive to do so. No reform is possible with the existing incentive structure in place. I'm not advocating an armed insurrection. That would be futile. I am advocating participation in the system to the least amount possible until in crumbles under its own weight.

I still ponder over whether we made any progress in our conversation regarding this topic. I remain of the position that it is my belief that government serves way to many roles to either discontinue it or to completely ignore it. If you do NOT participate in government, then others will, and the others who are participating are going to have more power and leeway b/c you are NOT participating. I do NOT see that as a solution that will cause some ultimate pie in the sky collapse... as you are suggesting. I also find it very unproductive for people to be spouting off that government is NO good without offering solutions. I seem to be repeating myself.. in regard to saying that I cannot see it productive to just say get rid of all government.. makes little to NO sense to me.

We're not making progress because you are not listening. The solution to the problem of monopoly governance is distributed governance. Businesses can compete to provide traditionally state-provided services the same way they compete to provide any other kind of services. Public goods can be provided through assurance contracts. And the collapse is coming whether you can see it or not. You don't have to agree with my ideology. All you need is basic math skills. The Federal Reserve and many other central banks are near the zero bound already. With no capital formation it's only a matter of time.

I am attacking your ideas and NOT you personally. YOU may be a nice guy, and we may get along to have a beer; however, your most recent post is bullshit - especially the first sentence. YOU cannot just keep repeating the same concept using different words, and then accuse me of NOT listening or NOT understanding your brilliance. Can you be a little more respectful to the opinions of others? YOU do NOT have any crystal ball regarding the future regarding the role of government that is any better than my ideas - just b/c they seem to vary somewhat. You are being patronizing engaging in a form of personal attack and acting as if I do NOT know anything about what I am saying, merely b/c my views vary from yours.

Yes, I agree there are a lot of irresponsible behaviors of current governments (especially this printing of money and giving the money to rich people without any accountability to cause them to loan the money or give the money to the people), but governments are also very resilient and they have many supporters and blood suckers that are NOT going to let them fail any time soon....

When do you expect this supposed governmental collapse? In the lifetime of anyone reading this thread? within 70 years? I probably only have 30-40 more years left in me, at best, if I'm lucky.

YOU are talking pie in the sky, if you think that you have a vision and a prediction about the downfall of government that is more sound and more realistic than anyone else's b/c your prediction is based on some kind of mathematics (that certainly cannot fail to prove correct, yeah right).

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 10, 2014, 11:16:24 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 01:56:40 AM

Government is not Other people ganging up on you - even though frequently, it may seem as if an individual cannot do much to change the society in which s/he lives, but government is NOT the same as a thief.

I have already made my point several times that a person asserting that the government is the same as a thief is failing to recognize complexity..

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 10, 2014, 11:16:24 AM

you have made absolutely NO point. You just keep repeating, that government is not the same as a gang of thugs and taxation is not the same as stealing, then fail to elaborate why. Then you accuse other people of doing exactly that - repeating one point without adding any arguments. Also you keep saying that "it is not the same, because it is complex" and you complain about fuzzy logic?? Sorry, this holds no ground.

O.K. we are NOT getting anywhere, and I do NOT want to waste additional time on these various arguments that some people believe the solution to all woes is to get rid of government and the sooner we do it, the better.... what a disaster in the making.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 10, 2014, 11:16:24 AM

I think I have seen your sort of outlook enough times to recognize the basic principles behind it. Would I be correct in assuming, that you think that:
1) government is a necessary part of society without which society can not function

You are NOT correct to think these various points b/c these are NOT my points.

Regarding your first point: I am saying that currently we have a whole system set up. WE can have all kinds of future set-ups, so merely getting rid of government in the short term is NOT any kind of meaningful solution. There may be ways around all kinds of societal set ups that do NOT require government. I am NOT for government, merely for the sake of government.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 10, 2014, 11:16:24 AM

2) it is possible for well intentioned people to do good through the government

It is possible for both well intended people to do good and bad intended people to do bad through government. In fact, there are a lot of good intended people involved in various aspects and various roles in government. So what is your point, here, exactly?

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 10, 2014, 11:16:24 AM

3) it is possible for you as an individual to influence the government in a meaningful way?

Many individuals have set goals to make certain influences in life - including influencing the direction of the government. And, sometimes these kinds of focuses have resulted in meaningful changes to government. Individuals can do these kinds of things, but it is likely rarely a product of any one individual but rather teaming up in various ways to accomplish objectives. Personally, I would rather spend my time in other ways, and I have made my various dents in life.... individually and as a part of various groups. Whether I will continue to make any dents will depend upon how I focus my energies. At the moment, I have NO current intention on making any meaningful dents in the direction of government - b/c I am planning for future travels - however, my life trajectory could change b/c of turns of events that are NOT expected.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 10, 2014, 11:16:24 AM

anyway, your only argument thus far has been:

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 01:56:40 AM

You as a citizen have a role in government, and you have a choice in where to live.

to which I say: WHERE THE HELL IS MY CHOICE TO LIVE WITHOUT A GOVERNMENT?

There you go... trying to minimize anything I said by asserting my ONLY argument has been... I made several points - and repeatedly asserted that I did NOT want to get into these kinds of discussions about the role of government... Weren't we talking about thefts and mt gox at some point?

You seem to be getting caught up... in some physicality.. and I would think part of this "where" question is physicality and part of it is a state of mind and acceptance of the community in which you live. Maybe you could attempt to live in nature somewhere... like in alaska.... .. anyhow, if we live in modern society we partake in the roads and the schools and the hospitals and other forms of infrastructure... Difficult to get around these things.. and also difficult to make credible claims about "I built this" when your building depends upon others and depends upon infrastructure.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 10, 2014, 11:44:21 AM

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 10, 2014, 11:28:46 AM

Quote from: threecats on March 10, 2014, 11:25:51 AM

what is immoral about placing a low bid?

You are spreading panic and suggesting people they should sell. I often lost money because I listened to some "guru´s" here.

Every transaction has two parties, a winner and a loser. So, there is no good or evil in this realm.

Wink

In the world of trading, at the time of the transaction, both parties believe that they are winners. ONLY afterwards does one of the parties, realize that s/he has bet wrong.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 10, 2014, 01:58:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 01:14:24 AM

Viewing taxation as theft (or as an involuntary taking) is bringing the wrong framework b/c questions about taxation are a lot more complicated than theft or other categories of involuntary takings.

I disagree. And since you seem to be disinclined to get into the weeds (and this is the wrong forum in any case), I guess that's the end of it.

EXACTLY... Why discuss it? We have differing opinions on a point that is NOT really related to the thread.

Quote from: octaft on March 10, 2014, 01:58:50 PM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 10, 2014, 01:07:46 PM

Quote from: octaft on March 10, 2014, 11:40:19 AM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 10, 2014, 11:16:24 AM

to which I say: WHERE THE HELL IS MY CHOICE TO LIVE WITHOUT A GOVERNMENT?

I am very curious what no government means to you, and why you'd want to live in a place without one. I mean, it's one thing to want less government intrusion, but are we talking less/no taxes, or are we talking no police department, no public schooling, no fire department. Where do you draw the line?

Oh yeah and about the eternal "what about the roads/fire department/schools/etc." - let's build them. Now that we have Blockchain technology and an increasingly stable currency on top of it we can build all sorts of things on a voluntary and decentralized basis at least for the reason that we don't want to be dependent on the government providing these services. Wouldn't that be a neat thing? Grow the institutions to replace the current system from the ground up. Let's plant some seeds.

Yeah, let's build them! Let's take your knowledge of building roads, my knowledge of building roads, and combined, I'm willing to bet that we'll have a total of zero knowledge of how to build roads. Since we can't do it, someone will have to. But that someone is going to want to be paid for their investment/hard work, so you'll probably have to pay tolls every few miles. Oh, wait, some people can't afford those tolls. Those people better stay home or get ready to walk it, because they're fucked.

The same logic can be applied to pretty much everything else. It's a good society...for those who can afford it. But hey, at least we don't need those poor deadbeats mooching off our roads and having police protection and shit. That's reserved for the people who deserve it. That's for the people with wealth.

Dreams and reality rarely intersect.

Well put, Octaft.

I was going to make some similar point about pie in the sky about some of the simplistic points that some posters are making when they believe that "public" services are going to be voluntarily picked up by private entities in the event of NO government. And, our example need NOT only be roads, but that is a good one just to illustrate a point on one topic.

Accordingly, in order to evolve in that direction of potentially less government (whether we can ever make it to NO government would be another story), we would need to plan, rather than willy-nilly elimination.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 06:05:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 05:26:20 PM

When do you expect this supposed governmental collapse? In the lifetime of anyone reading this thread? within 70 years? I probably only have 30-40 more years left in me, at best, if I'm lucky.

YOU are talking pie in the sky, if you think that you have a vision and a prediction about the downfall of government that is more sound and more realistic than anyone else's b/c your prediction is based on some kind of mathematics (that certainly cannot fail to prove correct, yeah right).

It's collapsing now. It may seem slow, but from a historical perspective, it's much faster than the decline of Rome. The standard of living in the U.S. peaked in the last half of the 20th century and is now declining. Europe is much the same.

U.S. government debt is now greater than 100% of GDP. We are literally living on borrowed time. Government entitlement programs are an actuarial time bomb. The collapse can be dampened (and prolonged and exacerbated) by money printing, but that's just an accounting trick. We are slowly becoming a third world nation.

YOU are NOT saying anything NEW here. We know that there are a lot of problems with the american government and its printing of money to give to the rich.

This governmental system could implode in the coming weeks or it could take 10-50 years. I would wager, that it is pretty likely that a large majority of the current governmental disfunction is going to hobble along for a good 20-30 years.... However, NO one really knows the future, exactly... And some unexpected events could totally change the trajectory

Quote from: freebit13 on March 10, 2014, 06:39:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 10, 2014, 06:28:38 PM

Well put, Octaft.

I was going to make some similar point about pie in the sky about some of the simplistic points that some posters are making when they believe that "public" services are going to be voluntarily picked up by private entities in the event of NO government. And, our example need NOT only be roads, but that is a good one just to illustrate a point on one topic.

Accordingly, in order to evolve in that direction of potentially less government (whether we can ever make it to NO government would be another story), we would need to plan, rather than willy-nilly elimination.

Ok, then let's not be simplistic and just stick to roads... what other 'public' services can you think of that nobody would voluntarily pick up for money?

Oh and to clear up another misconception, 'voluntary interactions' doesn't mean 'for free', it means you decide to do it voluntarily, out of your own free will.

P.S. oh yeah and how are these 'poor' workers getting to work on the bus at the moment, is it free where you live?

Certainly, there are going to be varying degrees to which services will be provided depending upon how necessary the contributors believe the services to be. There are public benefits in many services that are regulated, as well.

We could name almost anything.

Water, gas, electricity, airwaves, hospitals, schools, security, policing, military, busses, trains, planes, labor, financial...

It is a quagmire.. and each service has its own various argument and priorities. I still DO NOT see the point in getting into a big discussion of each of these... b/c even posters are getting into arguments about whether bitcoin is the solution to all of this mess.. ... and in my view bitcoin is NOT going to solve these kinds of matters in the near-term - however, it is likely that bitcoin could contribute towards various solutions, since many of us on this thread (especially those who are long-term bull-ish on bitcoin) realize that bitcoin is likely to transform many aspects of societal interactions.

I seem to recall that this whole conversation about the role of government came from the statement that theft and taxes is the same... .. and NOW the conversation has devolved into a full blown discussion of the role of government and whether services would be provided voluntarily, in the event that there were NO government.

Quote from: hdbuck on March 10, 2014, 09:50:42 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 10, 2014, 09:24:49 PM

I'm starting to think this isn't a repeat of 2013 and we are going for a triple bottom.

dont forget there is the mental barrier of $1k which is quite strong. sustaining a rise from 100 to 1000$ is as hard as going from 10 to 100$ and it didnt took a year for sure. but there are also those whales pumping and panicking the market that we should be careful about. weak hands will be purged. and ego-delusionals shouting "choochoo" every 100$ jumps are just making it harder for new comers not to get f*** in this jungle.

edit: for f*** sake we are talking about a f****g grand here. thats serious money for the average joe and its surely not the whole speech about buying a thousandth of a bitcoin that is going to help it to get mainstream and attract new money in. at least give it time. whats funny tho is that at the first panic sell movement all the choohooers will just follow. Cheesy

This is sloppy thinking if we are of the belief that new investors need to buy in 1BTC increments. New investors can buy in at whatever amount that they want or they feel justified. Probably, a more important measurement is BTC's market cap, and whether there is room for expansion from about an $8 Billion dollar market cap to some new and higher value. To me, a $100 billion market cap seems to be fairly conservative, once we get the choo choo moving along a little further... or get a little upward momentum, at some point... which seems that we will be progressing in that upward direction in the near future.. this year, and also 2015...

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 11:08:21 PM

Quote from: octaft on March 10, 2014, 07:42:50 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 07:26:23 PM

If you claim the a monopoly government is necessary to prevent the predation of the disadvantaged by the powerful, then I ask, howz that workin out for you so far?

Here's a question: let's say you could, for the rest of your life, commit 30% of your income and savings to charitable organizations of your choice, with a certain amount required to go to basic needs charities, in exchange for never paying taxes on anything ever again. Would you say yes? If that's too much, what's the maximum you'd go up to?

My maximum is zero percent. It's my money. If I am forced to be charitable, it's not really charity, is it? How much freedom would you be willing to give up for freedom? Your question makes no sense.

Here you show the extreme nature of your thinking and how detached you are from the real world in some kind of ideological attempt to have some fantasy society in which there is NO taxes...(or compelled charity), and in such a world, supposedly, necessary public services will still be carried out... ... OTHERWISE, we will truly be living in a survival of the fittest, dog eat dog world... Most people would NOT want to live in such a society.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 11:48:13 PM

Quote from: HerrAndreas on March 10, 2014, 11:16:43 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 11:08:21 PM

Quote from: octaft on March 10, 2014, 07:42:50 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 07:26:23 PM

If you claim the a monopoly government is necessary to prevent the predation of the disadvantaged by the powerful, then I ask, howz that workin out for you so far?

Here's a question: let's say you could, for the rest of your life, commit 30% of your income and savings to charitable organizations of your choice, with a certain amount required to go to basic needs charities, in exchange for never paying taxes on anything ever again. Would you say yes? If that's too much, what's the maximum you'd go up to?

My maximum is zero percent. It's my money. If I am forced to be charitable, it's not really charity, is it? How much freedom would you be willing to give up for freedom? Your question makes no sense.

I fear you are mistaking money for freedom.
your freedom is always measured by the freedom of the people living around you.

Yes... probably that is part of the problem in conflating concepts of economic freedom with other kinds of freedoms that may exist as a citizen... Yet, sorry to say, as members of a society, we also have responsibilities... that may rub against and compete with the extent, quantity and kind of freedoms that we are able to experience as members of society.

Monetary freedom, financial freedom is the issue at hand. If you think otherwise, then it is you who are mistaken.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 11, 2014, 01:00:19 AM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 10, 2014, 11:44:02 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 10, 2014, 09:26:03 PM

Yes. Perhaps I don't care that I don't have good access to roads if I can telecommute and Jeff Bezos will drone my groceries in.

So you'd like to return to pre-Roman times with no roads AND you want us to take that argument as serious?

Not at all what I said and not even simply a poor representation of what I said. I'm disappointed in you.

My point is that other solutions may be more optimal but we are locked into "roads roads roads" by government action. Perhaps we would all have flying cars or 300mph underground vacuum tubes or something.

These are are real fantasy land examples, if you are of the belief that you could establish infrastructure and/or practices to accomplish either one of these without some kinds of community consensus (in other words govt-like input)

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 11, 2014, 01:03:51 AM

Quote from: octaft on March 11, 2014, 12:21:38 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 11:08:21 PM

Quote from: octaft on March 10, 2014, 07:42:50 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 10, 2014, 07:26:23 PM

If you claim the a monopoly government is necessary to prevent the predation of the disadvantaged by the powerful, then I ask, howz that workin out for you so far?

Here's a question: let's say you could, for the rest of your life, commit 30% of your income and savings to charitable organizations of your choice, with a certain amount required to go to basic needs charities, in exchange for never paying taxes on anything ever again. Would you say yes? If that's too much, what's the maximum you'd go up to?

My maximum is zero percent. It's my money. If I am forced to be charitable, it's not really charity, is it? How much freedom would you be willing to give up for freedom? Your question makes no sense.

Billyjoeallen has the point go right over his head. Shocker.

My question is a test to see who cares about their ideals and who is just greedy. Judging by your response, it's all about the money for you, which suggests to me your odds of willfully giving anything to charity are extremely low. If that is the case, why should I believe your ridiculous "support through voluntary charity" argument. You clearly don't.

No, the point has gone over your head. Forced charity is not charity. Involuntary wealth redistribution is not efficient because the victims resist and evade. Wealth is destroyed in the process making everyone poorer. The size of the pie is just as important as the fraction of the slice. You don't seem to care about the poor and needy nearly as much as you care that I might possibly spend my money as I see fit and not as you think I should.

You spend your money your way and I spend my money my way. That's agreeing to disagree, but when you advocate theft against me, that makes you my adversary.

Billyjoeallen:

I must congratulate you, at least, for coming full circle back to the original postulate and re-emphasizing your point that you are of the belief that the government is the same as a thief - merely b/c they are levying taxes against your "involuntarily." I really wished that you could find some island to live upon, b/c you would like to stay detached from society, or at least that is what you are saying that you want. But when push comes to shove, you likely do NOT want to live on an island by yourself, and instead you want to enjoy the fruits of various infrastructure but NOT have to pay your fair share.

Surely, I would like to pay as little as possible as well; however, I realize that it is my responsibility to pay, even when I do NOT get a direct benefit. Anyhow, simply asserting the government is the equivalent of thieves demonstrates that you DO NOT appreciate either the various roles of government, and your logic remains very fuzzy to equate government with a ceo, such as Karpeles, who seems to have used his position of privelege and access to the money of others to be irresponsible at best and possibly engaged in fraud (has NOT been alleged, yet).

Quote from: Richy_T on March 11, 2014, 01:06:54 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 12:37:46 AM

Here you show the extreme nature of your thinking and how detached you are from the real world in some kind of ideological attempt to have some fantasy society in which there is NO taxes...(or compelled charity), and in such a world, supposedly, necessary public services will still be carried out... ... OTHERWISE, we will truly be living in a survival of the fittest, dog eat dog world... Most people would NOT want to live in such a society.

WTF is "compelled charity"?

I was merely attempting to refer to Octaft's hypothetical in which he seemed to be attempting to describe a preset amount (such as 30%). Something like this could be either compelled or voluntary... I was merely playing along with the hypothetical... but I admit that I may have lost the point about whether such a hypothetical was going to compel such contributions or leave them up to individuals.

Surely, we must all realize by NOW that certain individuals, including Billyjoeallen (based on his earlier comments), is NOT going to contribute if voluntary ... unless such a charity meets all his likely impossible to accomplish and vague parameters.. Individuals like that, just seem to want a free ride to have the benefits of various infrastructures (NOT to recognize the existence of such infrastructures), so it is just a waste of time and energy to explore possibilities of "voluntary" charities for guys who seem to want a free lunch.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 11, 2014, 01:15:53 AM

Quote from: octaft on March 11, 2014, 01:01:08 AM

Governments aren't corrupt. People are corrupt. Why do so many people think getting rid of the government gets rid of corruption? All it does is changes where it takes place.

For comparison, let's look at getting rid of ALL guns. What happens? Does murder stop, or do we only see a sudden jump in the number of stabbing deaths? I argue the latter.

Nobody is suggesting corruption can be eliminated, but corruption is less profitable when power is distributed. Democracy is an attempt to distribute power. We just want to take it a few steps farther.

NOW, you are throwing in the concept of Democracy. I doubt you understand the concept b/c from your past comments , you do NOT seem to understand the idea of community and public good. Accordingly, I would venture to put forth that democracy has something to do with giving votes to people in spite of their having money. Therefore, if you let poor people actually vote, they are going to chose to have some things that are good for the public, and even rich people will vote to have certain protections for their property, so the poor people do NOT up and take it away from the rich people. Various public goods and interests are protected through democratic processes - which also requires money (likely taxes, unless we come up with some other means to accomplish the same).

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 11, 2014, 02:44:47 AM

Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on March 11, 2014, 02:38:59 AM

All these people that say that they like charity fail to take into account one simple fact: The US Government has to be about the single most inefficient charitable organization in the history of existence.

Also, if they like charity so much, then why dont they (and others like them) provide the necessary donations, if they're so sure that you won't. The answer is, because they think that you'll end up contributing more than they will, or that they'll get something out of the bargain as well.

This is why a socialist state is fundamentally unsustainable, because everybody wants someone else to be putting in more than them. So, in order for everybody to be satisfied, money has to come from thin air. Some states have chosen to steal from others to come up with this, but the US has chosen to borrow.

Government borrowing is stealing. The loans come with promises to repay by taxing future generations. Talk about taxation without representation. Borrowing is popular because children don't vote.

It seems that you are missing some essential elements in your quick rendition of the facts and the ramifications of borrowing or printing.

In essence what has happened since about the 1980s is that the US Government has increasingly let the rich off the hook.. by decreasing and decreasing taxes... .accordingly, instead of taxing them, the government borrows from them... which is really a bunch of bullshit.

Certainly, many of us here agree that there are a lot of messed up aspects in the current arrangement and how our tax money is being used. Also, regular people are having to bear more and more of the burdens of failure to tax the rich.

Quote from: stylin on March 11, 2014, 03:16:46 AM

Lol at all the talk about paying taxes. One word boys and girls: Anarcho-capitalism (serious).

Anarcho-capitalism is one of two logical end-states, with the other being national socialism. Both are completely non-contradictory given their premises (freedom vs. control/safety). I personally don't agree with nat-soc but will acknowledge that it logically follows given its starting assumption.

Ancap seeks to socially apply many of the already-developed principles of economics. The premise of ancap is the non-aggression principle, thus it recognizes the inherent illegitimacy of all government. The problem most people have with ancap is that it necessitates suffering of the weak. If the US were to suddenly go ancap there would be a long period of the weak dying off, a "purge" if you will.... but what people don't understand is that the resulting society would be almost utopic.

I don't believe humanity will see ancap for hundreds of years - it is so far ahead of today's times that no doubt the vast majority of you reading this post will dismiss it. However, as long as we are below the technological Singularity and scarcity exists, ancap is the logical end state. We'll get there... even if it takes centuries of mistakes and rebuilding and mistakes and rebuilding.

The interesting thing about Bitcoin is that it is one of the first true ancap technologies. It makes sense, though - everything follows money and it's only logical that money should be the first to change.

This is a very pretty chart; however, it make nearly no fucking sense.

A chart like this is NOT going to help anyone to think more clearly about the situation of the role of government about solutions about what to do in order to accomplish more fair and equitable societies, whether we are talking about distribution of wealth or the role of government to establish community objectives. Also, it places labels that also make little sense and suggest that these various leaders fit squarely within some kind of paradigm.

It's pretty, though. Roll Eyes

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 11, 2014, 05:16:22 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 04:10:34 AM

Various public goods and interests are protected through democratic processes - which also requires money (likely taxes, unless we come up with some other means to accomplish the same).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract

That is all fine and dandy that you are attempting to be more specific with a proposed direction that could be applied - assurances contracts. So I appreciate your efforts in that direction. NONETHELESS, I remain a little bit unclear about how these assurance contracts may work in various applications in the real world - apart from your fantasy world - such as in a city or a county or a state or a nation.

Definitely, I am NOT opposed to potentially innovative and creative avenues to establish new social arrangements - that may even be beyond our current thinking about societal arrangements. I will caution you that ideas to throw out the current governmental arrangements (including taxes) - prior to testing out new arrangements would be very problematic and negatively impactful to a lot of people. So I would NOT advise jumping into any pie in the sky arrangement without some data about how it plays out in the real world.

So my question to you is whether you know of any examples in which these assurance contracts have been applied in the real world (NOT just hypothetical)... the larger the scale of the application the better - such as a city of 50,000 people or even better a metropolitan area of several million people - however, any example may be useful towards their consideration and how they play out in real world application.

If you do NOT have any examples of application, then you are really talking pie in the sky that is MUCH TOO premature for serious consideration in today's world and even in our conversation here.... Then I would suggest that it would be good to work towards achieving application of some of these ideas in order that we can talk realistically.. and NOT just in fantasy... and we can compare and contrast how these hypothetical concepts play out.

Quote from: octaft on March 11, 2014, 05:39:16 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 11, 2014, 05:32:34 AM

Quote from: octaft on March 11, 2014, 05:07:39 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 11, 2014, 01:55:30 AM

oh really? So corporate welfare is not free riding or do you think they can't afford to pay either? Billionaire I.P. monopolists like software companies, movie studios and music moguls who use my tax money to enforce their copyright, trademark and patent claims aren't also free riders?

so I'm either ramming my charitable deeds up your ass or I'm uncharitable. I can't win with you, can I? The truth is you need to think I'm a contemptible person because that justifies stealing from me. This is the kind of dynamic that Statism engenders. It's a counter-civilization force. This is not civil discourse.

And you need to think that I am some government hypnotized sheep to avoid having to actually answer the question, when really I believe that government, especially in it's current incarnation, sucks balls. I'm just not nearly as convinced as you are that magical mystical libertarian land is going to be this god-send solution to the problem.

The fact is, if you're going to use the whole "voluntary donations" argument, then please tell me who is going to be donating, because I'm pretty damn sure it's not going to be the people who equate taxes with robbery such as you, regardless of whether their comparison is correct.

The donators will be a mix of genuine altruists and people seeking status as philanthropists, no doubt.

One thing I will say about you vs. a lot of libertarians is at least you flat out admit it's about the money. Most use their ideals as an excuse, you're not trying to kid anybody.

Of course, some of them generally hold the ideal that giving government money is bad, but I think those people would much more readily take the "buyout" theoretical offer I put on the table. At least then you know where the money is going, I suppose.

Octaft:

I believe that you are giving Billyjoeallen much more credit than he merits. I have nothing against Billyjoeallen as a person and I am sure that he is representing ideas that are shared by others; however, he is discussing matters in such a pie in the sky world that it is very difficult to take the various arguments and proposals seriously.

Billyjoeallen is espousing ideas very similar to a lot of libertarians in their various views of government. They have NO meaningful solutions, and want to shoot first and ask questions later - which is likely going to really screw things up for a lot of people. There are these various goals that may be good in their hypothetical frame to allow for more individual freedom and autonomy. And, I share some of those values; however, I remain fairly confident that we do NOT achieve them by running rough shod over the role and contributions of government.

For example, there were a lot of libertarians who thought that it was so wonderful to have the USA government shut down for several weeks to attempt to prove some kind of point about NO need for government. And, really, that government shut down was one of the stupidest gambles that could have lead to much worse catastrophes than what had occurred.... it was like reckless disregard for a variety of impacts. My main point here is that I have NO problem with vision and attempting to accomplish meaningful changes to society and even getting rid of various aspects of government - especially if there are potential substitute institutions that could be implemented. However, I tend to suffer from a fairly high level of irritation when some of these anti-government or less government ideologies strive towards dismantling without having any real meaningful plan(s) or visions that encompass values beyond their own small circle(s).

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 11, 2014, 05:54:47 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 04:24:00 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 11, 2014, 02:44:47 AM

Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on March 11, 2014, 02:38:59 AM

All these people that say that they like charity fail to take into account one simple fact: The US Government has to be about the single most inefficient charitable organization in the history of existence.

Also, if they like charity so much, then why dont they (and others like them) provide the necessary donations, if they're so sure that you won't. The answer is, because they think that you'll end up contributing more than they will, or that they'll get something out of the bargain as well.

This is why a socialist state is fundamentally unsustainable, because everybody wants someone else to be putting in more than them. So, in order for everybody to be satisfied, money has to come from thin air. Some states have chosen to steal from others to come up with this, but the US has chosen to borrow.

Government borrowing is stealing. The loans come with promises to repay by taxing future generations. Talk about taxation without representation. Borrowing is popular because children don't vote.

It seems that you are missing some essential elements in your quick rendition of the facts and the ramifications of borrowing or printing.

In essence what has happened since about the 1980s is that the US Government has increasingly let the rich off the hook.. by decreasing and decreasing taxes... .accordingly, instead of taxing them, the government borrows from them... which is really a bunch of bullshit.

Certainly, many of us here agree that there are a lot of messed up aspects in the current arrangement and how our tax money is being used. Also, regular people are having to bear more and more of the burdens of failure to tax the rich.

It's not an issue of rich vs. the poor. It's an issue of people who use and threaten violence to get what they want and people who don't. There is less wealth disparity in societies with less coercion.

Wealth disparities have more to do with regulating and taxing the rich and the companies... rather than questions about coercion... You are really myopic and misplaced in your thinking if you are wanting to view the world through levels of coercion.. and then in the end your conclusions do NOT even seem to correlate with reality.... they are pure speculation with what appears to be your own definition(s) about what constitutes coercion.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 11, 2014, 06:08:40 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 05:41:45 AM

So my question to you is whether you know of any examples in which these assurance contracts have been applied in the real world (NOT just hypothetical).

https://www.kickstarter.com/

Like I suggested, you have NO examples. Let's discuss again in 2-5 years or however long it takes to run a few pilot sessions of these assurance contract scenarios. Hopefully, when we discuss NEXT time, you will be able to provide examples of actual public entities, such as cities, counties, states or nations that have implemented these kinds of arrangements in their treatment of various public goods, benefits and/or services or at least run assurances contracts through their measures.

Quote from: Erdogan on March 11, 2014, 08:55:40 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 12:37:46 AM

[...]
... ... OTHERWISE, we will truly be living in a survival of the fittest, dog eat dog world... Most people would NOT want to live in such a society.

This is important. I agree, but why do you think, while most people don't want to live in a dog eat dog world, that we will have one in a free society?

If you meet a stranger somewhere in the wilderness, what is your first thought? Kill him and steal his boots?

Your quote of me is somewhat out of the context of the ideas being discussed. Surely, it is easy to get garbled up with these various arguments being presented, and from the garbled /fragmented sections attempt to figure out what is being said.

I believe here: Octaft had presented a hypothetical -asking how much charity BillyjoeAllen would be willing to lock into to pay to cover public interest/benefits etc. BillyjoeAllen responded that he does NOT want to pay anything into such a system b/c it is his money.

I was merely responding and suggesting that such a world of people NOT contributing (assuming that Billyjoeallen is imagining a world in which everyone is on their own) would result in deterioration of social cooperation and forms of barbarianism. If there are NO rules to protect, and there are too many people living in dense areas, we would likely devolve into survival of the fittest b/c there is NOT enough resources to go around and the current resource distribution remains extremely skewed. If we got rid of government, then we would likely experience redistribution through brutal means.

I am NOT suggesting that human nature is to kill one another. However, if we immediately got rid of government and received the world that BillyjoeAllen was postulating, we could NOT magically transition from our current world to his utopian state of individualism without some bad things happening to the weak and the poor and the elderly. More or less, that is the context of my comment.

This is NOT a scenario that I am wishing for, and in fact, I am continuing to suggest that if we are going to transition to some world without government (or even lesser government or more widely distributed government), then we need some kind of plan for that transition, rather than mere bare assertions (without plans) that we need to get rid of government.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 11, 2014, 09:09:37 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on March 11, 2014, 08:55:40 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 12:37:46 AM

[...]
... ... OTHERWISE, we will truly be living in a survival of the fittest, dog eat dog world... Most people would NOT want to live in such a society.

This is important. I agree, but why do you think, while most people don't want to live in a dog eat dog world, that we will have one in a free society?

If you meet a stranger somewhere in the wilderness, what is your first thought? Kill him and steal his boots?

I think the quote by JayJuanGee is one of the many strawmen I have been alluding to. I have often seen this argument made, usually followed up by some talk about "human nature". What I fail to understand about this position is this: if it is true and human nature is vicious, crooked and evil (something I choose not to believe), then how is the creation of an institution with the legal monopoly on initiating force helping the situation? Especially since this institution is operated by the very same vicious, crooked and evil human beings?

In the end it boils down to the question of whether you trust people in general. I do. And if you don't, you're afraid that they'll be mean to you without the presence of some punishing force...I would suggest traveling around a bit more.

You are truly pulling this summary of my previous statement(s) out of your ass. Sorry to be so crude in my description of what you seem to be doing, but I have NOT made any assertions about human nature in ways that you are attributing to me.

My comment is merely responding to inadequacies in previous descriptions about how we are supposedly to transition from the current state of affairs into some utopian individualistic world that is being described by posters like Billyjoeallen - in his assertion that we should just get rid of government and everything will be better in terms of "freedom."

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 11, 2014, 10:05:30 AM

Quote from: octaft on March 11, 2014, 09:40:22 AM

Many would consider what we have to be working, isolated echo chambers aside. For those people, the burden of proof is on YOU on why we should change, and the burden of proof is on YOU on as to why we're wrong, and why we should go through a huge upheaval to meet the desires of a small minority of people.

Please tell me more about how I would go about producing this kind of proof? I hope you don't mean "talk about it"?

For the extent of your attempts to lecture about this topic, you surely are pleading a high level of failure to understand. It seems that both Octaft and I are repeating this theme in various ways to suggest that you cannot just make bare assertions about something being preferred without showing how it applies in real life... where has it been done... Is there a pilot program being applied somewhere? You are providing nothing. In the meantime, we have thousands of examples of various kinds of governments and their application... too numerous to list. Neither Octaft nor I are embracing these various governments as being the solution, but each of us have been saying that if you are proposing another system, then let us know what that would be exactly and how it would play out. We would NOT remove the whole US Government systems and asparatuses without having a plan. Since it seems to be your idea to remove the government, then it is your job to come up with the plan, NOT those of us who are NOT proposing such removal.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 11, 2014, 10:05:30 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 09:40:45 AM

You are truly pulling this summary of my previous statement(s) out of your ass. Sorry to be so crude in my description of what you seem to be doing, but I have NOT made any assertions about human nature in ways that you are attributing to me.

I am truly sorry, but you seem to be misunderstanding me here. I reckon English is not your primary language? I didn't mean to put words in your mouth. I have stated that I have often seen this argument being made, as well as what sort of ideas usually follow. This doesn't necessarily mean, that you hold these same ideas, right? Well, to be fair, I find your way of expressing yourself confusing and I'm not quite sure what your points are most of the time. Please don't take this as an attempt to insult you.

Yes, YOU can attempt to search for some kind of weakness all that you want. YOU are grasping at straws.... B/c you do NOT understand demonstrates a point that we are engaging in a fruitless battle, here, and it seems best that we just leave this topic until some point that you are able to come with some more concrete ideas or life examples or something beyond pure speculation and hypotheticals.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 11, 2014, 10:05:30 AM

Look, guys - octaft and JayJuanGee. I have done this many times and I can see where this is going. You'll be asking me to provide proof that some other system would be better. You will ask me how this other system would work, how it would achieve this or that. And I'll be replying that I do not know, after which you will probably feel like you "won the debate" because I can't produce any counter arguments. When in fact my argument is precisely that I do not know. Neither do you. And that is the reason why none of us should be in charge of all of us. The point is that having one single system is a bad idea. Multiple choices are needed.

Currently, we do NOT have one single system. There are a multitude of varying kinds of government systems in the United states... both on the federal level and then even more numerous examples on the local level. You seem to have a tendency to oversimplify your rendition of facts and fail to provide specific examples or discussion points which provides very little confidence that you are attempting to accomplish anything beyond speaking in generalities.... which is a big waste of our time.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 11, 2014, 10:05:30 AM

Self organizing systems and Emergent order exist in life all around us. Utilizing them for the full benefit of society just runs counter to our prevailing culture and financial status quo. I'm at a loss to explain this to you. If I knew how a free and decentralized society would organize itself it would cease being the superior option, because we could just go ahead and do exactly that, right now. Do you see what I mean? The superior alternative quite obviously is something you and I on our own can't think of, that is why it is superior. You are familiar with the concept of synergy, I presume?

There is nothing wrong with attaching references to wikipedia articles, and I have NO problems with the concepts described within the articles. These concepts can be applied to existing systems or can be used to revise existing systems.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 11, 2014, 10:05:30 AM

This is one of the reasons why the technology behind Bitcoin is so powerful. There is absolutely no way to predict all the ways how it will be used, by whom and for what purpose. People through trial and error, will come up with innovations so astounding that we probably can't even imagine them right now. They can innovate, without permission, because the technology is open source and decentralized. Yet here we are, on bitcointalk, proclaiming the superiority of decentralized open source financial technology, when in fact so far there has been little evidence that it is better right now. I find myself constantly amazed by the amount of bitcoiners who just don't seem to get this.

I believe that a lot of people involved in bitcoin already seem to agree on these points that bitcoin has the ability to assist us to reorganize society and to adopt truly revolutionary changes in the way that people interact or even the distribution of benefits in society. So long as bitcoin continues to exist, these kinds of innovations (yet to be known precisely) are going to continue to come about. We can agree that these kinds of innovations are taking place and are going to continue to take place. However, that does NOT mean that we are going to agree that we should throw away our existing system, prior to the more broader implementations of these various innovations.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 11, 2014, 01:53:39 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 03:40:50 AM

These are are real fantasy land examples, if you are of the belief that you could establish infrastructure and/or practices to accomplish either one of these without some kinds of community consensus (in other words govt-like input)

Naked assertions are so tiresome.

You have a tendency to remove relevant context from my quotes...

Here, my quote above came from a point in which I was referring to your assertion that we are going to achieve flying cars and magical tubes, but you failed therein or even subsequently to describe how those innovations could be accomplished in some world free of government. You seem to be suggesting that government impedes innovations... So Yes, you seem to be making naked assertions.

My point, on the other hand, is NOT making any assertion, but merely asking you to provide some clothes for your assertion(s), which in later posts you pretty much admitted that these assertions were mere examples of the vast possibilities of a world without government. Nearly, pure speculation on your behalf, no?

Also, your subsequent criticism of my response is to attempt to get me to do the work for you to suggest that I have some kind of obligation to provide evidence to back up my assertion(s), when I am merely questioning the adequacy of your assertions.

MY point ids, if you are going to make an assertion about flying cars or magical tubes, then give us some context about how that will work, in your perceptions of world possibilities...,. without such context, your description of possible worlds seem pie in the sky...

Quote from: Richy_T on March 11, 2014, 02:12:28 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 04:00:57 AM

I was merely attempting to refer to Octaft's hypothetical in which he seemed to be attempting to describe a preset amount (such as 30%). Something like this could be either compelled or voluntary... I was merely playing along with the hypothetical... but I admit that I may have lost the point about whether such a hypothetical was going to compel such contributions or leave them up to individuals.

There is no such thing as compelled charity. If it is compelled, it is not charity.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 04:00:57 AM

Surely, we must all realize by NOW that certain individuals, including Billyjoeallen (based on his earlier comments), is NOT going to contribute if voluntary ... unless such a charity meets all his likely impossible to accomplish and vague parameters..

I realize no such thing. I see nothing that he has said that has any relation to his willingness to pay voluntarily to charities. That is all in your imagination. I expect that he deliberately avoided making any such mention specifically to hook you with you biases and prejudices.

By the way, would you mind stating your definition of the word "theft"? I would love to hear what that is.

Again, you seem to be engaging in some kind of lame attempt to distract, and to cause me to perform work on your terms. Maybe you have control issues, or a failure/refusal to engage in a meaningful dialogue?

Likely, we should all realize by now, that our definitions of theft are likely NOT materially different from one another. We have been engaging in discussions of government and whether a government is necessary to carry out varying functions. These varying functions are NOT theft, merely b/c some people feel that they do NOT want to contribute... or they want to set their own terms. It is NOT really clear how either you or Billyjoeallen want to contribute. To me it appears that anything short of complete voluntary will cause people like you to opt out of paying.. but surely you will be wanting to get some of the benefits... such as clean air or such as material goods like fancy cars or speedy tubes. IN FACT, probably the need for prison and fines and tax penalties are exactly made for people like you and billyjoeallen b/c if you are NOT coerced into paying taxes, you will NOT contribute. YOU have to be forced.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 11, 2014, 02:47:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 09:31:35 AM

I believe here: Octaft had presented a hypothetical -asking how much charity BillyjoeAllen would be willing to lock into to pay to cover public interest/benefits etc. BillyjoeAllen responded that he does NOT want to pay anything into such a system b/c it is his money.

I was merely responding and suggesting that such a world of people NOT contributing (assuming that Billyjoeallen is imagining a world in which everyone is on their own) would result in deterioration of social cooperation and forms of barbarianism.

You don't even understand the mistakes you're making, do you?

Another amorphous comment fishing for some technicality and failing to engage with substance.. also attempting to engage in personal attacks. without providing any substance.

IN other words, what are you referring to..? explain yourself rather than providing some puzzle that is meant to show your brilliance.

Quote from: souspeed on March 11, 2014, 03:17:50 PM

Doge Coin is a gimmick, the only lesson here is that there is still an opportunity for a new coin to gain a huge userbase fast.

Therefore; I still believe that the biggest threat for bitcoin is a new coin being launched by a collective of big companies who already have a huge userbase, infrastucture, marketing tools, capital, and most importantly, trust!
Such a new coin can potentially surpass bitcoin in market share quickly.
Remember, the average user doesn't care about decentralization or privacy, etc., they will use the most common and popular one.
The only way to avoid this potential threat for bitcoin is to gain mass adoption before such a coin is launched.

However; it is to be seen if such a 'collective big companies' coin will ever be launched, since it is probably more convenient for big companies to just implement bitcoin without to much effort.
In case of failure, it is only bitcoin that has failed and they can drop bitcoin again.
While as they implement their own coin, this will cost considearable more effort and dedication and will impact their reputation negatively in case of failure.

Surely, this kind of threat is possible; however, wouldn't they run the risk, if they do NOT implement well, then the attempt merely springs bitcoin into greater success and greater market share and greater fame? Even with a lot of capital, it would be difficult to quickly mimic distributive network and even the confidence of neutrality that bitcoin has.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 11, 2014, 05:44:53 PM

It......

OH... that makes sense. Tongue

Quote from: Richy_T on March 11, 2014, 05:51:56 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 05:10:04 PM

You seem to be suggesting that government impedes innovations...

OK, real world example: Government mandates catalytic convertors. Auto manufacturers develop lean-burn engines that have pollutant output similar or better than that provided by catalytic converters and are more efficient to boot. Lean-burn engines are not compatible with catalytic converters so are shelved. There are many of this kind of thing if you keep your ears open but I'm not going to sit here and read a list to you.

Edit: Enough of this here anyway. Wrong thread.

Yes.. of course, we could list a large number of examples of where things go wrong, and your after the fact attempt remains insufficient b/c it fails to provide a context.

We can also list a large number of examples of government funding that created innovation. These examples do NOT prove points, unless they are described in a context and have some overall applicability to what is being argued.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 11, 2014, 06:45:27 PM

Well this thread sure isn't the best playground to hold this debate, it's moving too fast.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 04:33:39 PM

[snip]
However, that does NOT mean that we are going to agree that we should throw away our existing system, prior to the more broader implementations of these various innovations.

I do not advocate the "throwing away of our existing system". In fact, here is what I advocated some posts ago:

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 10, 2014, 01:07:46 PM

I advocate the movement towards the anarchy part of the spectrum. Not in any violent, preferably not even sudden manner, because I think that would cause confusion and suffering. I do this because I am convinced that decentralized/voluntary/anarchistic forms of societal organization are far superior to centralized forms in terms of their efficiency.

I can see why you would project that thought at me. As with any group of people, dogmatic, oversimplifying people seem to be a vocal majority among anarchists.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 04:33:39 PM

[snip]
if you are proposing another system, then let us know what that would be exactly and how it would play out.

I really feel like debating Bitcoin with someone who just keeps asking me "yes OK I understand it is decentralized, but WHO RUNS IT? WHO CONTROLS IT?" I have told you, that I am advocating movement towards anarchy. How would you describe the "system" of anarchy? You don't, because there is no one single system. The point I keep repeating here is that you and I do not know what particular system would be better suited to our needs, nor do we know how a system change would play out and to claim we do is to engage in humongous hubris. It does not follow, though, that there can be no such system. The thought, that the best possible system can be devised by a person or a group seems ridiculous to me. I am saying that we should treat society more like an organism, which grows from the inside out, than a mechanism, which is assembled from its constituent parts according to a central plan, to fulfill certain functions.

Incidentally I am all in favor of this:

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 04:33:39 PM

However, that does NOT mean that we are going to agree that we should throw away our existing system, prior to the more broader implementations of these various innovations.

I have suggested this before: to simply "cancel" the government right now would probably prove disastrous in the short term. The culture, the infrastructure, practically everything is not ready for this, because there are no alternatives ready. Government has a too dominant role in most important areas of human life. In many of them they ban competition. Before we can transition to any kind of hypothetical government-free state, these alternatives need to be created first, otherwise the transition might prove too painful. Quitting cold turkey might not be advisable in this state of high addiction to government.

What I am saying is let us work on creating these alternatives. If you do not wish to participate, I sympathize (but why are you involved with Bitcoin, I wonder?). You keep asking me to provide proof that they can work, but how can I do that? We need to try, to find out. Besides, I have already stated that it might indeed be the case, that governmental organizations have been a necessary part of civilization until the advent of the internet. But I feel that with this technology at hand, we need to re-test this belief. I have provided no "proof", nor real life examples, just a bunch of concepts and explanations, speculations and musings on why self-organizing, decentralized systems exhibit properties of emergent order and why that might be a good thing to apply to society. What more can I provide? I don't have your desired thought out central plan how to achieve decentralization. Should I go on about how Wikipedia is superior to the Encyclopedia Britannica due to its decentralized nature?

Anyways, I'm happy for you that you seem to be quite content with the current system. Hope you can appreciate people trying to explore alternatives and tolerate their sometimes heretical thoughts while they do so. In the end if the result is having more freedom of choice, you'll be better off to. Or is the freedom of choice between different flavors of government enough for you?

Largely, I agree with many of your points that you made in the above post - except to the extent to which you are summarize my position in various ways. Personally, I am getting the sense that you are NOT mis-describing my points on purpose..... , but you are in good faith attempting to respond.

Surely, there appear to be several variations within positions that want to get rid of or to minimize government. In that regard, your position seems to differ somewhat from other libertarian or anarchical frame works, , which I had NOT been attempting to get into those kinds of quagmires of discussions.

I am NOT opposed to change, and I am NOT opposed to lessening government or getting rid of it, in the event that better systems can be established. Bitcoin can certainly assist in the direction of providing freedom to greater numbers of people and transparency to monetary and/or other transactional systems.

I recall that this current line of discussion regarding the role of government began with the assertion that taxes are like theft and then further implications that the government is like a pack of thieves. I chimed in that portion of the discussion to point out the extent to which that kind of thinking is fantastical and really lacking in meaningful logic (over simplifying the state of taxation and the role of government). Surely there are a lot of flaws in government and abuses and misuses of taxes about which I agree, and my intention has NOT been to get into those kinds of discussions in order to point out that theft and taxes are NOT nearly the same thing.... and we have been having near meaningless communications on the topic, ever since.

There are people in this thread who want to continue to proclaim that taxation is the same as theft, which we should recognize on the face of it how preposterous and absurd a claim that remains ;;; but NONETHELESS some people in this thread want to argue regarding basic and silly points, like that..

Quote from: Tyson95 on March 11, 2014, 07:52:41 PM

How much do Americans move the Bitcoin markets? All of the good news that I've seen come from the US doesn't seem to impact prices much.

Even though some posters here have asserted that this kind of good news in the USA and these network and infrastructure future potential of bitcoin has already been factored into the current price of bitcoin, I believe, somewhat to the contrary, that the multiple good news is going to, someday soon, cause an enormous increase in the price of bitcoin in order that bitcoin is going to catch up to where it needs to be in order to be a much more stable and viable financial instrument.

In this regard, any BTC prices that reflect a BTC market cap of less than 20 billion dollars demonstrates to me that we are getting bargain basement BTC prices b/c in the very short term, maybe within a year or so, BTC's market cap will likely surge to at least $100 billion.. and that would signify BTC prices around $8000 per BTC.

In other words, the continued good news in the USA is going to make it more and more difficult for whales, bots and/or manipulators to keep BTC prices down... So, even if the good news in the USA does NOT have a short term positive effect on BTC prices, these continued pieces of good news good news is going to allow for the choo choo to come more easily at some point soon.

Quote from: rpietila, the Vassal of the Mighty Goat on March 11, 2014, 07:59:02 PM

When consensus is bearish (everyone has sold already), it is time to buy. Like now, I see that there is very little downside and explosive upside in as little as 2 months.

Btw. I am in the process of coauthoring (with sirius) an e-book about "History of Bitcoin Economy". What would you like to have discussed?

That is great!!! When is the e-book coming out?

Are you going to discuss potential government attempts to undermine BTC, and the fact that governments may see their abilities and efforts as very difficult to regulate and/or stifle bitocin given the P2P nature of it... which will cause governments to likely employ covert tactics to attempt to undermine bitcoin (and or to attempt to keep it in check) while appearing that they are NOT attempting to undermine bitcoin? Also, another aspect of government is that various members of government are very confused about bitcoin.. and do NOT really know what to do.. b/c bitcoin seems so small and insignificant... relative to other markets.... such as gold or fiat currencies....

Also, interesting to know about decisions within the government about how to treat confiscated coins... could they use these coins to manipulate BTC, and have governments considered these kinds of tactics.

Quote from: donut on March 11, 2014, 08:18:00 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 08:05:57 PM

There are people in this thread who want to continue to proclaim that taxation is the same as theft, which we should recognize on the face of it how preposterous and absurd a claim that remains ;;; but NONETHELESS some people in this thread want to argue regarding basic and silly points, like that..

It's actually extortion, which is a form of theft.

I'll try to lay it out.

Extortion (also called shakedown, outwresting, and exaction) is a criminal offense of obtaining money, property, or services from a person, entity, or institution, through coercion. Refraining from doing harm is sometimes euphemistically called protection. Extortion is commonly practiced by organized crime groups. The actual obtainment of money or property is not required to commit the offense. Making a threat of violence which refers to a requirement of a payment of money or property to halt future violence is sufficient to commit the offense. Exaction refers not only to extortion or the unlawful demanding and obtaining of something through force,[1] but additionally, in its formal definition, means the infliction of something such as pain and suffering or making somebody endure something unpleasant.
src

Coercion /koʊˈɜrʃən/ is the practice of forcing another party to act in an involuntary manner by use of intimidation or threats or some other form of pressure or force, and describes a set of various different similar types of forceful actions that violate the free will of an individual to induce a desired response. These actions can include, but are not limited to, extortion, blackmail, torture, and threats to induce favors. In law, coercion is codified as a duress crime. Such actions are used as leverage, to force the victim to act in a way contrary to their own interests. Coercion may involve the actual infliction of physical pain/injury or psychological harm in order to enhance the credibility of a threat. The threat of further harm may lead to the cooperation or obedience of the person being coerced.
src

Can you really tell me with a straight face that taxation is not extortion?

YES. I can tell you with a straight face that you are coming at this question with fuzzy logic. YOU seem to be so much focused on yourself that you fail to consider that there are community considerations and you, supposedly, are part of that community. YOU seem to be case in point someone who wants to set forth trivial arguments to mislead and to distract us from the main issues regarding meaningful discussions about the role of government. You pigeonhole all government taxes and actions as some sort of guilty by association and NO good deeds are being done by these taxes b/c they are taking money from you.. and somehow, you are likely of the belief that these services and benefits should be left to the private sector to some how miraculously carry them out.. on a voluntary basis.... YOU are communicating EXTREMISM without a foundation in reality... if you are trying to equate the community interests to be the same as the thieving interests of a criminal.

YOU are also likely the kind of guy that is so against taxes and community contribution, that he needs to be forced to pay his fair share into the community b/c you are NOT very likely without being begged to contribute on your own. Maybe if someone kisses your feet, then maybe you will possibly decide to contribute a little bit to the community. You are so busy thinking about yourself that you fail to understand the variety of community needs that government fulfills to service people who are NOT in the same circumstances as yourself.

Maybe if we had only a million people in the world, we could get away with each person self-sustaining and having his/her own plot... but we do NOT live in such a world.. and there are communities.. and also an existing status quo that needs to be accounted for and transition if we are going to change to some other societal arrangements that may be able to accommodate approximately 7 billion people.

Quote from: freebit13 on March 11, 2014, 08:58:30 PM

Not exactly new, but worth a read for a bit of perspective:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/02/03/these-four-charts-suggest-that-bitcoin-will-stabilize-in-the-future/

NOT only is the article NOT new, but the article is a month old.

I find it a bit irritating when posters place links in threads, but they do NOT make any comment to provide any context for the reason for the link... like for example, what does the article mean to you? Why is the article relevant to this thread?

The four bubbles described in that article could imply that we are going to move into another BTC bubble? or what does it mean exactly? Do you think that we are going to have less volatility in the future? Do you believe it? Other factors could suggest that bitcoin is going to crash.. no? Do recent events, within the last month (such as the Mt. Gox situation) affect the predictions of the month old article?

Quote from: donut on March 11, 2014, 09:26:32 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 09:12:04 PM

Quote from: donut on March 11, 2014, 08:18:00 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 08:05:57 PM

There are people in this thread who want to continue to proclaim that taxation is the same as theft, which we should recognize on the face of it how preposterous and absurd a claim that remains ;;; but NONETHELESS some people in this thread want to argue regarding basic and silly points, like that..

It's actually extortion, which is a form of theft.

I'll try to lay it out.

Extortion (also called shakedown, outwresting, and exaction) is a criminal offense of obtaining money, property, or services from a person, entity, or institution, through coercion. Refraining from doing harm is sometimes euphemistically called protection. Extortion is commonly practiced by organized crime groups. The actual obtainment of money or property is not required to commit the offense. Making a threat of violence which refers to a requirement of a payment of money or property to halt future violence is sufficient to commit the offense. Exaction refers not only to extortion or the unlawful demanding and obtaining of something through force,[1] but additionally, in its formal definition, means the infliction of something such as pain and suffering or making somebody endure something unpleasant.
src

Coercion /koʊˈɜrʃən/ is the practice of forcing another party to act in an involuntary manner by use of intimidation or threats or some other form of pressure or force, and describes a set of various different similar types of forceful actions that violate the free will of an individual to induce a desired response. These actions can include, but are not limited to, extortion, blackmail, torture, and threats to induce favors. In law, coercion is codified as a duress crime. Such actions are used as leverage, to force the victim to act in a way contrary to their own interests. Coercion may involve the actual infliction of physical pain/injury or psychological harm in order to enhance the credibility of a threat. The threat of further harm may lead to the cooperation or obedience of the person being coerced.
src

Can you really tell me with a straight face that taxation is not extortion?

YES. I can tell you with a straight face that you are coming at this question with fuzzy logic. YOU seem to be so much focused on yourself that you fail to consider that there are community considerations and you, supposedly, are part of that community. YOU seem to be case in point someone who wants to set forth trivial arguments to mislead and to distract us from the main issues regarding meaningful discussions about the role of government. You pigeonhole all government taxes and actions as some sort of guilty by association and NO good deeds are being done by these taxes b/c they are taking money from you.. and somehow, you are likely of the belief that these services and benefits should be left to the private sector to some how miraculously carry them out.. on a voluntary basis.... YOU are communicating EXTREMISM without a foundation in reality... if you are trying to equate the community interests to be the same as the thieving interests of a criminal.

YOU are also likely the kind of guy that is so against taxes and community contribution, that he needs to be forced to pay his fair share into the community b/c you are NOT very likely without being begged to contribute on your own. Maybe if someone kisses your feet, then maybe you will possibly decide to contribute a little bit to the community. You are so busy thinking about yourself that you fail to understand the variety of community needs that government fulfills to service people who are NOT in the same circumstances as yourself.

Maybe if we had only a million people in the world, we could get away with each person self-sustaining and having his/her own plot... but we do NOT live in such a world.. and there are communities.. and also an existing status quo that needs to be accounted for and transition if we are going to change to some other societal arrangements that may be able to accommodate approximately 7 billion people.

What is fuzzy about my logic? Seems pretty binary to me - either a given act fits the definition, or it doesn't.
Why can't you follow through to the logical conclusion?

Your logic is ridiculous, and is NOT worthy of serious contemplation.

More or less, you are saying:

Situation 1) A robber comes up to you on the street and points a gun at you, and he says give me your money or there will be negative consequences. You are fearful for your life, and you see that the thief seems capable of causing negative consequences upon you. Therefore you give the thief your money, and you feel resentful about it b/c the thief had placed you in such a position to have to give up your money b/c you did NOT want to suffer the negative consequences that were being threatened.

Situation 2) The government comes up to you, and says if you do NOT pay your taxes you are going to go to jail and your freedom is going to be taken away if you do NOT pay your taxes. YOU are going to duly suffer and the only way NOT to suffer is if you pay your taxes. The government surely seems capable of carrying out its threat, and you value your freedom. Accordingly, you pay your taxes even though you feel resentful about the fact that you had to pay your taxes... but the government forced you into such a situation by threatening you.. just like the robber did in situation 1.

You are saying that situation 1 and situation 2 are clearly similar and that this should be the point of our discussion.. for me to supposedly need to defend why situation 2 is different from situation 1. I think that it is illogical and silly for me to have to argue with some silly notion that these two situations are the same, when clearly, they are NOT the same - even though both situations make you feel the same way.. robbed.

I could give a flying fuck about how you feel about being robbed b/c you have to pay taxes.. so what.. this is NOT about how you feel. A community acting to get you to pay your fair share contribution into the community is NOT the same as someone taking money from you (that is NOT the community, but instead an individual actor or even a gang or even a corporation.. but clearly not the community).

I think that on the face of the matter, your bare assertion that situation 1 and 2 are substantially similar is illogical, incomprehensible and unworthy or serious discussion... Even though the two situations may appear to be similar, they are NOT.. which should be obvious and clear on the face. I think that i adequately explained this over and over and in sufficient detail without having to have the need to elaborate about the obvious, and I do NOT see the point of continuing such a silly-ass discussions if some people continue to think and to argue that taxes and thievery are the same things.... b/c posters like this are living in a sort of parallel reality of LaLa land and a simplistic world to be making such basic assertions to attempt to equate situations that are clearly NOT the same.... even though they "feel the same."

Why do we need to discuss this further? makes no sense to me.

Quote from: spooderman on March 11, 2014, 09:34:56 PM

this summer might make me a millionaire

In the ball park, how many coins do you believe it will require to accomplish being a bitcoin millionaire by this summer? 100? 200? 500? or some other quantity?

In the most optimistic scenario, I could see the potential of 200 coins making a person a bitcoin millionaire by this summer - however, I have visionary trouble with predictions of any fewer than 200BTC accomplishing the millionaire objective by this summer.

Based on what I know at the moment, that's my lame prediction of a best case scenario for this upcoming summer.

Quote from: bpnave on March 11, 2014, 10:06:30 PM

Quote from: keewee on March 11, 2014, 10:03:07 PM

Quote from: chriswilmer on March 11, 2014, 10:01:19 PM

Quote from: bpnave on March 11, 2014, 09:57:54 PM

Hey I'm new here, but I thought I'd go ahead and share my speculations.

As you can see, to me, it seems as if we may be in for a third "echo" (not repeat--as I've been told markets don't repeat, etc)
http://oi61.tinypic.com/oje520.jpg
source: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

(Please let me know if I'm breaking rules or something...I don't want to be disruptive!

You are doing the one thing everyone else is supposed to be doing!

+1 nice charts

Thanks guys, good to know I'm in the right place for this stuff!

If my speculations are at all accurate...I'm very much looking forward to the next few months Wink

Thanks a lot for the projection bpnave!!

I get the sense that many of us, here, are engaging in a kind of best guestimates of the future..

I see that you are projecting, more or less, a break out in the summer time-frame... (june or july-ish)

So my question is whether we expect to go above $1,200 at that point? and then will we stay at some point in which the lows are higher than the previous high? meaning that the lows would thereafter remain higher than $1200. Surely, I get the sense that sufficient BTC infrastructure and networking around bitcoin is allowing for such price break outs and higher highs and higher lows... .which would also bring with it, less volatility.

Quote from: aminorex on March 11, 2014, 10:18:50 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 09:49:36 PM

You are saying that situation 1 and situation 2 are clearly similar and that this should be the point of our discussion.. for me to supposedly need to defend why situation 2 is different from situation 1. I think that it is illogical and silly for me to have to argue with some silly notion that these two situations are the same, when clearly, they are NOT the same - even though both situations make you feel the same way.. robbed.

I think the only possible germane difference is the party demanding the funds.

YES!!!!! Germane and essential. Creates a whole different set of facts, meanings and outcomes. It is like having sex by oneself or with someone else. In the second situation, with someone else, we complicated circumstances and the potential of making a baby. The second situation is materially different from the first, even though the two situations may feel similar.

Quote from: aminorex on March 11, 2014, 10:18:50 PM

Quote

A community acting to get you to pay your fair share contribution into the community is NOT the same as someone taking money from you

The critical terms here are "community" and "fair share". If I can't opt out, it's not a community, its a gang.

Again, reverting into bad logic when coming to the belief the community is ganging up on you.

Quote from: aminorex on March 11, 2014, 10:18:50 PM

Also, "fair share" is very much up for debate. If the "community" decides that a "fair share" is 100%, are you cool with that?

Yes. These kinds of discussions are had all of the time concerning fair share. We have had times in fairly recent US history in which the marginal tax rate was more than 90% for the wealthiest among us. There are various factors that go into considering tax rates, and maybe circumstances may require 100%, but likely very rare circumstances. You are creating very extreme scenarios if you are suggesting that 100% would be or should be accepted as normal. Personally, I am of the sense that the very wealthy in the american society (the top 1-5%) have NOT been paying their fair share of taxes, and that is a very significant reason why a large number of americans are currently being screwed and gouged in a variety of ways. Also the very wealthy have been receiving various subsidies that they do NOT deserve... and are leaching off of the american people and that is also a very significant reason why a large number of americans are currently being screwed and gouged in a variety of ways.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 11, 2014, 10:30:23 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 08:05:57 PM

[snip]
I am NOT opposed to change, and I am NOT opposed to lessening government or getting rid of it, in the event that better systems can be established. Bitcoin can certainly assist in the direction of providing freedom to greater numbers of people and transparency to monetary and/or other transactional systems.

This is nice to hear and I assure you I am trying to understand your position and have a good debate.

What bothers me now is your reaction to the idea of "taxation = theft". When this was mentioned you went into a rather angry tirade stating over and over again, that this concept is so ridiculous, that it shouldn't even be taken seriously, but nowhere have I seen you actually explain why. I think this is a hint to why we differ, even though I could put my signature below your quote up there. It seems that to you government = society (or a meaningful representation thereof). Which, incidentally to me represents a concept so absurd and obviously untrue, that it shouldn't even be taken seriously. I won't explain why, though. If queried, I will repeat again how ridiculous it is Wink

Yes, if the topic of this thread concerned the role of government in society or some discussion such as that (or how to transform to a government society), then I would be more than willing to engage in such discussion, if I had the stomache to be involved in such a thread.

Surely, a variety of topics may come up in a thread, and the discussion of such topics spiral much further away from the thread. Here, I believe that I have sufficiently explained my concerns about attempts to equate theft with the government as being inadequate at best and silly at worst....

Likely, the topic of taxation or the role of government may come up again, and we can discuss further at that time. Why do we need to belabor points that clearly have been adequately addressed? and if we either do NOT understand each others points or we do NOT agree, then we can still move on b/c I feel that I am just repeating myself, and I do NOT feel that I have any obligation to explain my position any further than I already have explained.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 11, 2014, 10:30:23 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 09:49:36 PM

I think that on the face of the matter, your bare assertion that situation 1 and 2 are substantially similar is illogical, incomprehensible and unworthy or serious discussion... Even though the two situations may appear to be similar, they are NOT.. which should be obvious and clear on the face. I think that i adequately explained this over and over and in sufficient detail without having to have the need to elaborate about the obvious, and I do NOT see the point of continuing such a silly-ass discussions if some people continue to think and to argue that taxes and thievery are the same things.... b/c posters like this are living in a sort of parallel reality of LaLa land and a simplistic world to be making such basic assertions to attempt to equate situations that are clearly NOT the same.... even though they "feel the same."

And this after you put taxation and theft side by side and basically described them in the same words? I am inclined to believe now that you are trolling in some sophisticated manner, otherwise this huge overreaction would seem to me to be the defense mechanism of a very dearly held dogma.

You can believe that I am trolling all that you want, but such beliefs are ill founded. I provided explanations for my various assertions, and the fact that you don't agree with my assertions or you do NOT understand my points does NOT a troll make.

Yes, I recognize that in the bitcoin community there are a lot of people who are hostile to the concept of government and hostile to the idea of taxation. I am of the belief that it is pie in the sky for people to believe that in the short term bitcoin is going to allow for major transformations in these regards to either get rid of government or to get rid of taxation. However, I do recognize that bitcoin has a lot of potential to transform society in a lot of meaningful ways, including but NOT limited to transforming government, taxation, individual liberties and transparency.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 11, 2014, 11:10:28 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 11:06:34 PM

...I provided explanations for my various assertions...

Can you show me where, please?

It is likely true that I have been giving short shrift to aspects of this topic regarding role of government and/or the equating of government taxes with theft; however, in the past couple of days (or has it only been 1 day?), I have provided several fairly lengthy explanations of my various assertions... and each of my posts speak for themselves in terms of the extent to which I provided justifications therein. You can easily read each and every one of my various posts.. and judge for yourself.

However, I suspect the fact that you did NOT appreciate my description of situation 1 and situation 2, then likely you are NOT going to appreciate my other descriptions, which I remain of the position that each of my post is meant to be self-sustaining in the context of the thread.

You seem to want more of an explanation in places that I feel that already that I have adequately explained. For example, my outlining situation 1 and situation 2 was to ensure with thread participants on this topic that we are talking about the same thing.. and some posters are trying to equate situations 1 and 2 (including yourself) that in my view should clearly and logically be understood as different... b/c the actor in situation 2 is different from the actor in situation 1 (which makes a very meaningful and material difference).

Maybe you will come to the conclusion that I have NOT adequately explained myself through my various posts or that I have NOT adequately justified the points that I was attempting to make in my various posts. Or, maybe you are of the opinion that my tone has NOT been kind and gentle enough. I assure you that I have NO ill feelings towards you or towards anyone else participating in the discussion of this topic; however, as I have repeated, I cannot understand why we continue to discuss this topic b/c it seems that we have each had an opportunity to make our points. Also, as asserted by Octaft, the burden does NOT seem to be on me to explain any further than I already have.

Further, if you want, we can continue our communication regarding this topic by PM - since truly it does seem to be transgressing far afield from the topic of this thread.

Quote from: delphic on March 11, 2014, 11:20:16 PM

Quote from: BitChick on March 11, 2014, 10:59:03 PM

Overstock CEO just emailed 41.7 people about Bitcoin and why he believes in it! That is bullish! (It is the Wired article that came out a while ago about him. It is a good article BTW.)

I feel sorry for whoever the 0.7 person was.

Yeah... he he he Grin

I thought that fact was very sad too, until I opened up the attachment and saw that he had e-mailed 41.7 million of his closest friends.. something like that. He is one popular dude to have that many close friends. I did NOT get an e-mail, so I am NOT in such intimacy with him.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 11, 2014, 11:24:17 PM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 11, 2014, 11:10:28 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 11:06:34 PM

...I provided explanations for my various assertions...

Can you show me where, please?

Have you not been paying attention? It's because any other perspective is silly and ridiculous.

QED.

EXACTLY.... if you cannot see the logic of the obvious, then it seems likely that you gotta go study up on some basics and possibly to work on your analytical skills... .. Maybe take a few classes or practice reading, writing and math.. things like that. The brushing up is going to vary from person to person.... ... and I suppose my main point here is that if you cannot see the difference between a thief and a government, and we CANNOT get beyond that basic logical point, then why are we wasting time to engage in a discussion that is NOT going to get us anywhere.... Clearly, I consider the two to be different, and clearly I feel that I need NOT explain anymore than I already have about why the two are different.

In any event, I have NO issues with exploring various possible discussions on a broad array of topics, so long as they do NOT devolve and continually repeat into the ridiculous and silly realm.... such as continuing to assert that governments are the same as thieves b/c they make you pay taxes. I would laugh, if it were NOT causing me to cry over such need to repeat what to me seems obvious. Cry

Quote from: Richy_T on March 11, 2014, 11:53:00 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 11:34:27 PM

You seem to want more of an explanation in places that I feel that already that I have adequately explained. For example, my outlining situation 1 and situation 2 was to ensure with thread participants on this topic that we are talking about the same thing.. and some posters are trying to equate situations 1 and 2 (including yourself) that in my view should clearly and logically be understood as different... b/c the actor in situation 2 is different from the actor in situation 1 (which makes a very meaningful and material difference).

The difference does not change the situation.

My four legged animal is brown. Your four legged animal is black. My four legged animal is a dog. It does not therefor follow that your four legged animal *is not* a dog.

Theft is taking without permission. In both situations, more than adequately explained by yourself, permission is not given and taking occurs. It does not matter the why for that does not matter under the definition of theft. What it is about your situation 2 that does not fit the definition?

Thank you Richy_T for such an apt example.

Example 1:
Let's say one four legged animal is a brown dog and the other four legged animal is a black dog
Therefore both of them are dogs, and it may NOT make a difference in the situation and the two can be compared with one another.

Example 2
one four legged animal is a brown dog and another brown four legged animal is a grizzly bear (or a lion)

You are trying to suggest that example 1 and example 2 are the same, but they are NOT. In example 1, you will be closer to having similar situations unless the actual dog breed or the color matters for whatever application. Sometimes the color will matter, depending on the application, and some times the breed could matter, depending on the situation, even though both are dogs.

In example 2, you certainly have the same color and the fact that both are animals, but if the application is which one would you would trust to leave overnight as a pet to snuggle on the sofa with your 1 year old kid, then you may realize there is a material difference between the two.

The difference does matter especially when we are talking about the concept of theft and government and taxes.

I question why we seem to be caught up in arguments about definition.. what lack of meaning to this discussion... .NO?

Quote from: Richy_T on March 12, 2014, 12:03:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 11:50:39 PM

In any event, I have NO issues with exploring various possible discussions on a broad array of topics, so long as they do NOT devolve and continually repeat into the ridiculous and silly realm.... such as continuing to assert that governments are the same as thieves b/c they make you pay taxes. I would laugh, if it were NOT causing me to cry over such need to repeat what to me seems obvious. Cry

Asserting "Taxes are like theft because they involve taking without permission" leaves room for reasonable men to argue and come to an understanding about each others positions and can be enlightening. What is the nature of ownership, taking, permission. How strict is the definition etc.

Asserting "Taxes are not like theft because I believe taxes are not like theft" leaves nowhere to go and is the reason people are finding discussing with you frustrating.

And I can assure you that my academic credentials are sufficiently reasonable that you won't make me feel insecure about them.

YES... your academic credentials are so great that you want to continue to pursue a topic that I have NO interest in pursuing. Surely, you can answer your own questions above.. to the extent that they make any difference to my earlier points. Maybe in some kind of parallel universe you are correct, and government does equal thief? I am sure that we can find a large number of examples that either governments or government officials have acted like thieves, but so what? Those kinds of facts do NOT cause all governments to be same as thieves or taxes to be a form of thievery.

Additionally, the concept of government equaling thief may be interesting to you, and to others in this thread, and feel free to discuss that topic, without me. However, if you engage in such topic on this thread, I may chime in; however, I am inclined to think that I said as much as I need to say on the topic in order to make my point. Maybe I will think of something else later, but at the moment, I cannot think of anything further that I need to say about the topic.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 12, 2014, 12:15:44 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 11:50:39 PM

EXACTLY.... if you cannot see the logic of the obvious, then it seems likely that you gotta go study up on some basics and possibly to work on your analytical skills... .. Maybe take a few classes or practice reading, writing and math.. things like that. The brushing up is going to vary from person to person.... ... and I suppose my main point here is that if you cannot see the difference between a thief and a government, and we CANNOT get beyond that basic logical point, then why are we wasting time to engage in a discussion that is NOT going to get us anywhere.... Clearly, I consider the two to be different, and clearly I feel that I need NOT explain anymore than I already have about why the two are different.

In any event, I have NO issues with exploring various possible discussions on a broad array of topics, so long as they do NOT devolve and continually repeat into the ridiculous and silly realm.... such as continuing to assert that governments are the same as thieves b/c they make you pay taxes. I would laugh, if it were NOT causing me to cry over such need to repeat what to me seems obvious. Cry

I have to concede that you are correct. The government is not a band of thieves. Thieves don't use violence or threat of violence to steal. Robbers do. The government is a band of robbers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robbery

I am glad we got some movement on this topic... he he he... Roll Eyes

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 12, 2014, 12:15:44 AM

To claim that your opponents argument is silly on its face is not a logical objection. It is an appeal to incredulity tionalwiki.org/wiki/Argument_from_incredulity and it's a logical fallacy.

I am of the belief that I have explained more than sufficiently ad nauseum about such a trivial point.

And, you are NOT lacking in your ability to deviate from any topic with finger pointing rather than really engaging in some kind of meaningful discussion.

If you want to continue to assert that the government is the same as a robber, then why should we further engage in such discussion under the circumstances, that I am NOT going to go along with that stupid ass and simplistic framing of the situation.... that on the face of it, should be obvious to any one with brain cells and reason... although maybe the person would need to have at least the equivalent of a 6th grade education... to be able to engage in more complex thinking... Now I should NOT be insulting 5th graders b/c I am sure that many of them should be able to understand the difference between government and robbers... even some 1st graders will understand such.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 12, 2014, 12:22:44 AM

Quote from: octaft on March 12, 2014, 12:12:01 AM

Take those amazing academic credentials and put them to use explaining to me how we get to the ideal that you want. I swear I must have asked for this 100 times, but maybe some of you don't understand that "*wave wand* PRESTO! Libertarianism!" will not actually work?

What do you mean by "how"? Do you mean a path to transition from the current government configuration to one which more respects personal freedom or a plan as to how to change government to lead into that change? Cause if it's the latter, I have to admit, it's not looking too hopeful and I'm sure you collectivists will drive things into the ground at least once, if not more before things start to look hopeful.

In fact, that's one of the reasons I'm a fan of Bitcoin.

HERE, HERE... if you take out the attacks on your fellow posters.. I largely agree that it looks as if there are a lot of problems in current government.... including its trampling on personal freedoms... and its irresponsible monetary policies that seem to be doling out money to the rich as if it were candy.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 12, 2014, 12:40:40 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 12, 2014, 12:29:23 AM

Example 1:
Let's say one four legged animal is a brown dog and the other four legged animal is a black dog
Therefore both of them are dogs, and it may NOT make a difference in the situation and the two can be compared with one another.

Example 2
one four legged animal is a brown dog and another brown four legged animal is a grizzly bear (or a lion)

You in no way made the case that your situation 1 was materially different from your situation 2. Your claim amounted to "It's the government, innit?".

I was NOT trying to make any case, and I do NOT believe that i need to - b/c it should seem pretty obvious that the two situations are different. I outlined situation 1 and situation 2 in order to outline what appeared to be the parameters of the various arguments that seemed to have been being put forth to suggest that those two situations are the same, even though it should be logically and analytically obvious that the two situations are different. ... even thought they "feel the same" on the self-centered person who cannot imagine a world beyond him/herself

Quote from: Richy_T on March 12, 2014, 12:40:40 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 12, 2014, 12:29:23 AM

YES... your academic credentials are so great that you want to continue to pursue a topic that I have NO interest in pursuing.

You guys are a riot. You attempt to impugn my reading, writing and maths skills to which I respond that they are adequate and suddenly it's me claiming amazing academic credentials? This kind of thing is only to be expected, of course. Hyperbole, straw men and straight up ad-hom

Ah well, I'm done with running through logic with you. To descend to your level, "I'm right and you're wrong" and let that be an end to it. Your inability to express the reasoning behind your beliefs duly noted.

There is NO ad hominem attack here. And, maybe finally, you may be seeing the light that we have adequately explored this topic to realize that we do NOT need to keep discussing a matter in which the foundational presumptions cannot be agreed upon. So, yes, we can agree to disagree and move on to other topics.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 12, 2014, 12:52:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 11, 2014, 08:59:21 PM

Quote from: rpietila, the Vassal of the Mighty Goat on March 11, 2014, 07:59:02 PM

Btw. I am in the process of coauthoring (with sirius) an e-book about "History of Bitcoin Economy". What would you like to have discussed?

Are you going to discuss [ ... ] the fact that governments may see their abilities and efforts as very difficult to regulate and/or stifle bitcoin given the P2P nature of it...

I think that he said "history" and not "fairy tales". Wink

Bitcoin is very easy to regulate and stifle, see China for example.

I think that my outline of the regulatory issues and obstacles are in line with reality. NOT every "history" book is going to recognize certain kinds of dynamics, and some history books will get history wrong b/c they fail to take into account certain actual dynamics. Surely, it will be easier to write a history book that minimizes taking on controversial topics....

HOWEVER, merely b/c a topic is controversial does NOT equate that topic to a fairy tale.

China may have realized that it cannot stifle bitcoin.. and china has a mixed set of motives including a desire to have some kind of investment vehicle separate from the dollar... .. so China is likely torn about bitcoin and about whether they like it or hate it... maybe they are frienemies with bitcoin?

I agree with the concept that governments could push bitcoin into the underground; however, it remains quite unclear how much they are able to actually and directly regulate bitcoin... we DO NOT have a world coordinated government at this point, which would also make it more difficult to regulate bitcoin b/c so far governments have NOT seemed to have been very concerted or coordinated in their attempts to regulate and/or control bitcoin...

There seems to be a hodge podge of governmental action.. and even governmental action in one direction and then redefinition and regrouping and reversing and then action in another direction... rinse and repeat. The actions and reactions of governments are NOT a fairy tale... and different historians would frame these dynamics in different ways.

Quote from: aminorex on March 12, 2014, 01:00:18 AM

I'm still hoping you'll admit that a community is voluntary and does not initiate violence, at least not against its own members, in contradistinction to a the involuntary membership and routine initiation or threat of violence characteristic of a gang, JayJuanGee. If you want to hold a value system in which initiating or threatening violence against people who just want to mind their business is a routine way of life, I certainly can't stop you, but I would feel reassured if you at least recognized that you were doing so.

I am NOT sure how my comments attribute me to subscribing to embracing gang violence. I do admit, however, at at least one point, I suggested that to me it seems that some people are going to need to be forced to contribute to the community b/c if they were left on their own, they would NOT contribute. I am NOT locked into this thinking, but it seems that some posters in this discussion have suggested that they do NOT want to pay anything, and I have some difficulties imagining a community in which either all or some people do NOT pay anything into the community. I admit, this lack of vision may be a result of my NOT understanding the new system that may NOT require contributions from either all or some community members.

Quote from: CoinDox on March 12, 2014, 01:16:09 AM

False start?

I had never seen that one before... it is sooooo funny.

Quote from: oyvinds on March 12, 2014, 01:16:17 AM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 12, 2014, 12:11:41 AM

Quote from: Yololintian on March 12, 2014, 12:04:46 AM

Overstock CEO bought in the 800s and now is getting desperate Grin

Is that a guess or did he admit to it somewhere?

Look for the news articles / interviews when he basically said "I wasn't going to buy the bitcoins but I changed my mind and bought all the bitcoins this week". The price really was in the mid 800s at that point in time. We can't be sure exactly what his average was but we can say for sure that a) he bought a boatload and b) his average was somewhere in the 800s.

Whether true or NOT, those kinds of stories make me feel good b/c smarter people than me seem to have higher buy-in prices than me. My current average buy-in price is in the upper $600s.

Quote from: josiahgarber on March 12, 2014, 01:16:31 AM

Quote from: octaft on March 12, 2014, 12:56:02 AM

The problem is better is subjective, and not everyone will agree on, let alone know, what better really is.

And that is why non-aggression is so important. You can do what you want as long as you don't interfere with others.

John steward mill said something like that, and that was in the 1800s.

We also have social responsibilities, too, so likely we cannot leave the matter at just do whatever you want so long as you do NOT hurt anyone.

Quote from: tailor on March 12, 2014, 01:17:56 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 12, 2014, 01:14:50 AM

I am NOT sure how my comments attribute me to subscribing to embracing gang violence. I do admit, however, at at least one point, I suggested that to me it seems that some people are going to need to be forced to contribute to the community b/c if they were left on their own, they would NOT contribute. I am NOT locked into this thinking, but it seems that some posters in this discussion have suggested that they do NOT want to pay anything, and I have some difficulties imagining a community in which either all or some people do NOT pay anything into the community. I admit, this lack of vision may be a result of my NOT understanding the new system that may NOT require contributions from either all or some community members.

DO YOU HAVE A MACRO TO CAPITALIZE 'not' EVERY TIME YOU TYPE IT?

I have been thinking that meaning is more clear - or less ambiguous.

I imagine that you are viewing this matter differently, otherwise you would NOT have commented on such a stylistic matter.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 12, 2014, 01:24:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 12, 2014, 01:06:19 AM

China may have realized that it cannot stifle bitcoin.. and china has a mixed set of motives including a desire to have some kind of investment vehicle separate from the dollar... .. so China is likely torn about bitcoin and about whether they like it or hate it... maybe they are frienemies with bitcoin?

From what Iknow, Chinese residents cannot pay for goods or services using bitcoin; banks and other financial institutions cannot deal with bitcoin; bitcoins cannot be sold by e-commerce sites; and e-payment services cannot be used to pay for bitcoin. So what is left?

Lots of things are left - including: Storage of value, exportation of capital from country and speculation. Surely, those other aspects would be helpful for bitcoin in china, but they are NOT going to kill bitcoin in china. Also, do you really believe that chinese people are good at following rules? Surely, they can be good at following some rules, but they are also good at finding work arounds. I put my money on the work arounds.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 12, 2014, 01:24:58 AM

I believe there are other cointries which have taken similar measures; Russia and India, perhaps? (A thread was started in this forum to build a list the legal status of bitcoin in each coutry, but it never got beyond the first draft.) Some countries (like the US) have not banned crypto-coins explicitly, but their existing regulations alerady prevent some of those uses.

If crypto currencies will only be used for clandestine commerce between peers, under risk of legal penalties, they will have failed in their goal.

bitcoin is likely to be used whether with the cooperation of governments or NOT.

I agree with you that bitcoin could become very marginalized if there were outright and extensive attacks - however, there may also be backlash and wider scoff law type issues.. such as drug trafficking and porn that are illegal but happen despite laws.

Yes, if there was extensive attack then maybe bitcoin could return to $10 or less per BTC.... the reduction of value does NOT automatically imply that BTC has been stifled to death... but just more underground in its uses.

Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on March 12, 2014, 01:35:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 12, 2014, 01:28:53 AM

John steward mill said something like that, and that was in the 1800s.

Whats this supposed to imply? That morality is supposed to change with time or something?

We may still cite John Steward Mill and others even though the ideas have been around a while, and maybe there was NO reference to John Steward Mill in the original post.

I do believe that some things that were said in the 1800s may NOT apply very well in the modern world due to population growth and technological applications that may NOT fit very well into some of the current paradigms. I was quite a fan of JS Mill during some parts of my life, but in recent times, I have been giving more weight to concerns and needs of community b/c I am of the opinion that some of the JS Mill thinking may NOT apply very well to some social responsibility concepts... there needs to be some balance.. ... yet I am NOT in any position to assert exactly where that balance line should be drawn.. that would be a product of the community, ultimately.. and surely I would think that any society would like to have balances that allow for personal liberty within a community framework, if possible.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 12, 2014, 01:52:14 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 12, 2014, 01:14:50 AM

I am NOT sure how my comments attribute me to subscribing to embracing gang violence. I do admit, however, at at least one point, I suggested that to me it seems that some people are going to need to be forced to contribute to the community b/c if they were left on their own, they would NOT contribute. I am NOT locked into this thinking, but it seems that some posters in this discussion have suggested that they do NOT want to pay anything,.

There is a world of difference between not wanting to pay and not wanting to be forced to pay.

Sounds like a distinction without a difference, and actually, you seem to be over-emphasizing the "force" aspect, just as one of the people on your team, I believe it may have been Billyjoeallen, asserted that I am failing/refusing to see the gun.

So in that regard, guys on your team seem to be emphasizing the gun, and I don't think the gun is as important as the weight that you are giving to it... In my thinking the gun is only important in your state of mind and your consideration of the matter.... And, it seems to me that guys on your team seem to overfocus on the gun b/c guys on your team are so hostile to paying into the community that you guys are truly of the belief that you are being forced and you are feeling sorry for yourselves b/c you want to be "free" from community whatever the fuck that is... detached from society.. live on your own microcosm...

Quote from: Hypnoise on March 12, 2014, 01:55:04 AM

Quote from: meanig on March 12, 2014, 01:35:42 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 12, 2014, 01:24:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 12, 2014, 01:06:19 AM

China may have realized that it cannot stifle bitcoin.. and china has a mixed set of motives including a desire to have some kind of investment vehicle separate from the dollar... .. so China is likely torn about bitcoin and about whether they like it or hate it... maybe they are frienemies with bitcoin?

From what Iknow, Chinese residents cannot pay for goods or services using bitcoin; banks and other financial institutions cannot deal with bitcoin; bitcoins cannot be sold by e-commerce sites; and e-payment services cannot be used to pay for bitcoin. So what is left?

I believe there are other cointries which have taken similar measures; Russia and India, perhaps? (A thread was started in this forum to build a list the legal status of bitcoin in each coutry, but it never got beyond the first draft.) Some countries (like the US) have not banned crypto-coins explicitly, but their existing regulations alerady prevent some of those uses.

If crypto currencies will only be used for ~~clandestine~~ private commerce between peers, ~~under risk of legal penalties~~ who don't care about regulation, they will have ~~failed~~ succeeded in their goal.

FTFY

Chinese corrupted officers will push Bitcoin price up 1000 times

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/370-chinese-corrupted-officers-will-push-bitcoin-price-up-1000-times

GOOD NEWS!!! Thanks for that contribution!!!.

Quote from: bassclef on March 12, 2014, 02:02:41 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 12, 2014, 01:49:05 AM

Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on March 12, 2014, 01:35:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 12, 2014, 01:28:53 AM

John steward mill said something like that, and that was in the 1800s.

Whats this supposed to imply? That morality is supposed to change with time or something?

We may still cite John Steward Mill and others even though the ideas have been around a while, and maybe there was NO reference to John Steward Mill in the original post.

I do believe that some things that were said in the 1800s may NOT apply very well in the modern world due to population growth and technological applications that may NOT fit very well into some of the current paradigms. I was quite a fan of JS Mill during some parts of my life, but in recent times, I have been giving more weight to concerns and needs of community b/c I am of the opinion that some of the JS Mill thinking may NOT apply very well to some social responsibility concepts... there needs to be some balance.. ... yet I am NOT in any position to assert exactly where that balance line should be drawn.. that would be a product of the community, ultimately.. and surely I would think that any society would like to have balances that allow for personal liberty within a community framework, if possible.

JayJuan, check out this video. It pretty much sums things up.

http://youtu.be/muHg86Mys7I

The video portrays general libertarian principles, and my assertion remains that libertarianism can provide a partial framework for consideration, but it does NOT provide all of the answers, when it comes down to actual application, especially when some people may confuse basic concepts... such as creating some version of voluntary consent that the community has to beg for a guy to pay taxes or some ridiculous conception like that. Ultimately there are theories about social consent and the social contract, and I am NOT opposed to those theories being applicable guides, so long as they are NOT perverted into something that makes little to no sense when people start spouting various anti-government rhetoric.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 12, 2014, 02:38:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 12, 2014, 12:37:36 AM

If you want to continue to assert that the government is the same as a robber, then why should we further engage in such discussion under the circumstances, that I am NOT going to go along with that stupid ass and simplistic framing of the situation.... that on the face of it, should be obvious to any one with brain cells and reason... although maybe the person would need to have at least the equivalent of a 6th grade education... to be able to engage in more complex thinking... Now I should NOT be insulting 5th graders b/c I am sure that many of them should be able to understand the difference between government and robbers... even some 1st graders will understand such.

You do appear to have a first grader's understanding of the topic at hand. Government robbers are a subset of the larger class of robbers, which includes private sector robbers.
Grizzly bears and dogs are both mammals. The State and bandits are both robbers. They are different, but not in the ways that qualify them as mammals and robbers respectively.

So, why don't you answer the question then? Are you going to leave your 1 year old with a dog or with a grizzly bear for safe keeping?

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 12, 2014, 03:40:47 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 12, 2014, 03:16:41 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 12, 2014, 02:38:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 12, 2014, 12:37:36 AM

If you want to continue to assert that the government is the same as a robber, then why should we further engage in such discussion under the circumstances, that I am NOT going to go along with that stupid ass and simplistic framing of the situation.... that on the face of it, should be obvious to any one with brain cells and reason... although maybe the person would need to have at least the equivalent of a 6th grade education... to be able to engage in more complex thinking... Now I should NOT be insulting 5th graders b/c I am sure that many of them should be able to understand the difference between government and robbers... even some 1st graders will understand such.

You do appear to have a first grader's understanding of the topic at hand. Government robbers are a subset of the larger class of robbers, which includes private sector robbers.
Grizzly bears and dogs are both mammals. The State and bandits are both robbers. They are different, but not in the ways that qualify them as mammals and robbers respectively.

So, why don't you answer the question then? Are you going to leave your 1 year old with a dog or with a grizzly bear for safe keeping?

Neither, obviously. Robbers are to be avoided, whatever their other characteristics.

Thanks for your cooperation... Tongue

Quote from: octaft on March 12, 2014, 05:05:15 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 12, 2014, 01:48:20 AM

Quote from: octaft on March 12, 2014, 12:56:02 AM

I'm looking for better definition on where you stand.

Alright, let's take this further: the argument is that we would support the poor through voluntary charity, yes? Now let's say after 10 years, charity turns out to be woefully inadequate. Let's assume that -- while the world has not devolved into chaos and anarchy as a result of a lack of government -- that some are suffering because not everything went as planned. There's slums with no police protection because everyone that lives in the neighborhood can't afford it. How do we approach that? Are some things up for socialization, or is it all strictly no go, no budge?

Sure, the poor ain't doing so hot right now, but in order for the change to be worth it, it's not enough to be different. It's got to be better, and noticeably so. The problem is better is subjective, and not everyone will agree on, let alone know, what better really is.

Oh, I'm fairly happy to take things piecemeal. If things don't appear to be working, back off and adjust approach. Obviously, I believe things would not tend to end up that way (though government action has created a huge underclass that would have to be accounted for) but I'm not one for big schemes that have to be implemented in one fell swoop (just look at Obamacare for how that kind of thing goes).

Basically I see it like a big game of Jenga. There are some pieces which can be taken easily and others which require the removal of other pieces before they can be taken without collapsing the whole tower. Fortunately, almost every step that is taken to improve freedom should make the next one easier.

Okay, so you're willing to take things piece-meal. Great, but you didn't provide any solution to the problem. Pretend you're taking things piece-meal, and this information has just come up. I'm personally not the type who is comfortable with "crossing that bridge when you come to it."

For that matter, what if there are no solutions to the problems that come up? What if it turns out that, for most, your idea is, in fact, a dismal failure? Or what if it's not even possible, for example forms of government start popping up because that's what people want. What if all these small governments start warring with each other? How do we set up an army to fight off an invasion from a country who doesn't share our approach? All of these are questions that need to be addressed before you take the leap.

I'm still lacking answers on the whole "what if I decide to get a large crew together to violently take your shit" argument I presented earlier, as well. That's a general statement to all who agree with you, not specifically directed at you. You can say all you want "it won't happen," but it will. There will always be monsters in this world who will take full advantage of whatever situation they are put in. It's just a question of how widespread it will be.

I have a lot of questions for libertarians that I want answered. I've been asking them for years. Most of them still haven't been answered. I thought that might change here, but I'm starting to lose hope and am almost to the point of writing it off as another lost cause.

I admire your persistence and your formulations of questions for the libertarians, and you are generally fairly polite in your presentation of various issues and various scenarios, yet it should be clear that trying to get concrete answers from the no government folks is an exercise in futility.

It may be that they have an impossible task to describe some future society b/c no one person or group of libertarians are likely to be able to really design some community arrangement that adequately accounts for the variety of stakeholders (without involving some of the various stakeholders in the process).... which frequently causes the libertarians to speculate or to propose fairly specific plans that in fact have NOT been thought through very well.

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 12, 2014, 06:20:02 PM

Quote from: hdbuck on March 12, 2014, 06:14:39 PM

insight: friend of mine working in JP Morgan in London also confirmed they are kinda elaborating their own coin as we speak.. Undecided

They may succeed with novices but only until the banks fuck it up somehow, at which point people will begin to understand why they should support a coin not backed by any company/cartel.

Agreed.... In the end, these kind of endeavors are likely to bring more attention and credibility to bitcoin... even though they may seem to mimic or compete.

Bitcoin will likely prevail - yet, we may want to see how these various competitive cryptos play out... and these additional cryptos will likely create hype and even pump and dump opportunities... for day traders.

Quote from: bassclef on March 12, 2014, 08:17:05 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 12, 2014, 08:08:07 PM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 12, 2014, 06:20:02 PM

Quote from: hdbuck on March 12, 2014, 06:14:39 PM

insight: friend of mine working in JP Morgan in London also confirmed they are kinda elaborating their own coin as we speak.. Undecided

They may succeed with novices but only until the banks fuck it up somehow, at which point people will begin to understand why they should support a coin not backed by any company/cartel.

Agreed.... In the end, these kind of endeavors are likely to bring more attention and credibility to bitcoin... even though they may seem to mimic or compete.

Bitcoin will likely prevail - yet, we may want to see how these various competitive cryptos play out... and these additional cryptos will likely create hype and even pump and dump opportunities... for day traders.

Yes you're probably right. But a centralized bitcoin clone kind of defeats the purpose. Who will mine? JPMorgan? The public? A "trusted" central banker type entity? What if they need to change the rules, will they just hard fork it forcing everyone along? Sounds like a total disaster in the making.

I think that those are the very factors that various centralized clones are going to decide, implement and screw up b/c they are NOT going to want to give up control, and then in the end, their failure to give up control is likely going to cause lack of confidence in investing in them in the long term. We will have to see how these imitators play out, but I would venture to bet that they are going to screw up in adequately answering the questions that you outlined. Accordingly, bitcoin or anything that is decentralized like bitcoin is going to inspire the most confidence from future investors.

Quote from: Arcas on March 13, 2014, 02:02:22 AM

Not sure what this conversation has to do with Bitcoin Bid Walls, but it sure is damn interesting.

It seems that this particular quasi-side track began with comments about Mt. Gox, and thereby accusing and alleging that Mt. Gox had been engaged in thievery and/or fraud.

Thereafter, the comment that thievery is the same no matter who is taking the money, and another suggestion that government taxation was the same as thievery...

The conversation devolved from there into various assertions about the role of government.

Actually, nearly any conversation can devolve comparing and contrasting visions concerning the role of government and inspire the setting forth ideas about the past, present and future.

Quote from: chessnut on March 13, 2014, 02:54:37 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 02:51:25 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 13, 2014, 02:41:56 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 12:43:31 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 13, 2014, 12:16:49 AM

if robots are the foundation of society, then we should all benefit equally from them.

Says who? We didn't all benefit equally from the domestication of cows. Some people are lactose intolerant. I really don't understand this obsession with equality that is unheard of in nature. It's completely subjective. Equality in outcomes or equality in opportunity? Equal rewards for effort or for productivity? The former produce what economists call "perverse incentives". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perverse_incentive

You really should read this: http://www.tnellen.com/cybereng/harrison.html

ok, personally I dont like the word 'should' either. but you are proposing a system that must both destroy work (innovation) and create work (capitalism) at the same time. that is not an answer.

either we share work and hoard money, or we share money and hoard work. they work equally.

what doesnt work is when you hoard work and money - then the french revolution happens all over again and the skilled and educated lose.

Technology doesn't destroy work! Displaced autoworkers become robot builders and technicians and the pool boys at the gated communities of the wealthier GM executives and stockholders! That extra margin that automakers gain by automation is spent back into the economy. That provides jobs for service industry workers, etc. Would you rather be an assembly line worker with repetitive stress injuries or a golf caddy? I honestly don't think that you've thought this through.

..... technologies sole purpose is to destroy work.

I do NOT agree that technology is a sole purpose to destroy work. We should NOT necessarily be hostile to technology.

One of the central problems with technology, though is that frequently it is used to distract labor from unionization and solidarity and thereby the capitalists frequently become able to use and abuse technology in such a way that they extract nearly all of the surplus for themselves and use technology to divide and conquer, workers, labor and community. In the end, workers become more and more exploited by this b/c frequently if there are NOT strong governments and/or strong unions, they are NOT allowed to reap(enjoy) the benefits of the technological innovations.

People who believe in no government and/or no unions also seem to believe in trickle down economics, as if giving the money to the capitalists and the rich, that some how, miraculously, that money will trickle down to the people and somehow suggesting that the capitalists deserve to take all the surplus value.. so they can be rainmakers. Frequently, however, we have seen that trickle down does NOT work and there are failures to invest in infrastructure, and running away with the capital and even capitalists who engage in behavior to accumulate much more capital than they need or want... and the situation with these filthy rich is NO longer about the accumulation of capital but a form of keeping the capital away from the masses b/c they want to control and exploit the masses and they want to insist that capital is NOT distributed to regular people... b/c of desires to keep an exploitable group willing to work for anything..

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 03:05:37 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 13, 2014, 02:54:37 AM

..... technologies sole purpose is to destroy work.

Close. Technology's sole purpose is to save energy. That computer you are typing on saves you the trouble of coming to my house and arguing your fallacies in person.

Very Funny.... and witty, Billyjoeallen... even though you are missing the point about how the capitalist is able to take all the surplus value from the increased benefits and to put them into his pocket.

Quote from: Wary on March 13, 2014, 03:30:27 AM

Quote from: aminorex on March 13, 2014, 03:18:30 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 13, 2014, 02:51:51 AM

Im from South Africa, I know if try and tell a guy on the street that, he will kill you take your every belonging to buy food and survive another day. there is no money there, there is no work, they are all slaves to capitalism. and I love those people, they are good people.

and killing and stealing is another free market system that really works.....

Brilliant point. Very reality based.

Not really. Market, by definition, is based on voluntary exchange. If you broad it's definition to include involuntary exchanges, it will include all human activity and therefore will lose any useful meaning. What you can say about "thing" if everything is a "thing"?

Seems as if you are attempting to define some world that does NOT exist if you are suggesting that all market exchanges are voluntary. In the real world, actions and reactions of people fall into a broad array of categories, and these kinds of interactions need to be accounted for when we are attempting to organize a society. From my understanding, most people would prefer NOT to live in a society in which they fear for their lives b/c they are walking down the street wearing a $100 watch.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 13, 2014, 06:22:40 AM

So here is a stupid question to kill time: Suppose the Evil Lords decide to use the bitcoins seized from Silk Road and other places to kill bitcoin by spamming it with billions of tiny transactions, as fast as they can. How would the network defend itself from that attack?

I am guessing, but I thought that the network just processes transactions in the order received, and if there is a fee attached, then those transactions are processed first.

Billions is a lot... and I suppose that the problem could be made worse by creating some repetition of the transactions - after the first ones are processed, they are put back into the cue.

If there are so many transactions that the network is overwhelmed... the network may go down for a period of time. and then maybe a fork in the code to restart? YES>... I am continuing to guess.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 06:38:00 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:14:23 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 13, 2014, 02:54:37 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 02:51:25 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 13, 2014, 02:41:56 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 12:43:31 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 13, 2014, 12:16:49 AM

if robots are the foundation of society, then we should all benefit equally from them.

Says who? We didn't all benefit equally from the domestication of cows. Some people are lactose intolerant. I really don't understand this obsession with equality that is unheard of in nature. It's completely subjective. Equality in outcomes or equality in opportunity? Equal rewards for effort or for productivity? The former produce what economists call "perverse incentives". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perverse_incentive

You really should read this: http://www.tnellen.com/cybereng/harrison.html

ok, personally I dont like the word 'should' either. but you are proposing a system that must both destroy work (innovation) and create work (capitalism) at the same time. that is not an answer.

either we share work and hoard money, or we share money and hoard work. they work equally.

what doesnt work is when you hoard work and money - then the french revolution happens all over again and the skilled and educated lose.

Technology doesn't destroy work! Displaced autoworkers become robot builders and technicians and the pool boys at the gated communities of the wealthier GM executives and stockholders! That extra margin that automakers gain by automation is spent back into the economy. That provides jobs for service industry workers, etc. Would you rather be an assembly line worker with repetitive stress injuries or a golf caddy? I honestly don't think that you've thought this through.

..... technologies sole purpose is to destroy work.

I do NOT agree that technology is a sole purpose to destroy work. We should NOT necessarily be hostile to technology.

One of the central problems with technology, though is that frequently it is used to distract labor from unionization and solidarity and thereby the capitalists frequently become able to use and abuse technology in such a way that they extract nearly all of the surplus for themselves and use technology to divide and conquer, workers, labor and community. In the end, workers become more and more exploited by this b/c frequently if there are NOT strong governments and/or strong unions, they are NOT allowed to reap(enjoy) the benefits of the technological innovations.

People who believe in no government and/or no unions also seem to believe in trickle down economics, as if giving the money to the capitalists and the rich, that some how, miraculously, that money will trickle down to the people and somehow suggesting that the capitalists deserve to take all the surplus value.. so they can be rainmakers. Frequently, however, we have seen that trickle down does NOT work and there are failures to invest in infrastructure, and running away with the capital and even capitalists who engage in behavior to accumulate much more capital than they need or want... and the situation with these filthy rich is NO longer about the accumulation of capital but a form of keeping the capital away from the masses b/c they want to control and exploit the masses and they want to insist that capital is NOT distributed to regular people... b/c of desires to keep an exploitable group willing to work for anything..

Capitalists are savers. that's how they get capital. They should get rewards for delayed gratification and risk-taking. If they judge wrong and the market (which is society) doesn't value their goods or services at a price they can sustainably charge, then they lose money no matter how hard they worked. Entrepreneurs only get paid for results, not effort. They only get paid when they contribute. They are heroes.

Now in our modern system, entrepreneurs may not be savers. They may just have access to credit for arbitrary reasons. They may use the political system to shield themselves from competition. This is a total distortion of the free market and is not capitalism. You socialists like to use the political system to exploit capitalists, but that is not a better outcome. Consumers (and we are all consumers) get harmed because businesses must either charge higher prices to offset higher input costs or go out of business.

The only way to prevent either group from harming or exploiting the other is to remove the political factor and take the gun out of the room. When anything becomes mandatory or banned, somebody loses. When exchange of labor, money, goods or services is voluntary, both parties win. If they didn't, there would be no exchange.

You have too many presumptions in your descriptions of events... and you are talking gobbledy gook. First you praise and generalize about capitalists and then you suggest that the solution is to take away regulation. That is all bullshit. The problems that we have been having in recent times can be attributed too much liberty being given to capitalists and labor and government has been either too weak or too chickenshit to challenge the exploitation being carried out by capitalist. Look at the situation created as recently as since 2008 whereby jobs have been removed to bust unions and to make people unemployed and to reintroduce jobs at fractions of the previous rates. It was already bad before 2008, but got worse b/c capitalists (especially the filthy rich ones - NOT talking about the mom and pop capitalists, here) were given too much freedom and NOT taxed and allowed to remove jobs and capital and NOT to reinvest.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 06:43:20 AM

Quote from: notme on March 13, 2014, 06:37:01 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 13, 2014, 06:22:40 AM

So here is a stupid question to kill time: Suppose the Evil Lords decide to use the bitcoins seized from Silk Road and other places to kill bitcoin by spamming it with billions of tiny transactions, as fast as they can. How would the network defend itself from that attack?

To stop legitimate transactions, they have to be willing to pay more in fees than the legitimate transaction senders. If they are willing to pay more, there isn't much we can do but wait for them to run out of coins.

The harm to the network would be less than the cost to the spammers. It would be like fighting you by punching your fist with my face.

Great Analogy.... !!!!

Even though you do NOT know about politics and the role of government in society, you certainly know about the bitcoin network. Shocked

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 06:55:36 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:45:04 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 13, 2014, 06:22:40 AM

So here is a stupid question to kill time: Suppose the Evil Lords decide to use the bitcoins seized from Silk Road and other places to kill bitcoin by spamming it with billions of tiny transactions, as fast as they can. How would the network defend itself from that attack?

I am guessing, but I thought that the network just processes transactions in the order received, and if there is a fee attached, then those transactions are processed first.

Billions is a lot... and I suppose that the problem could be made worse by creating some repetition of the transactions - after the first ones are processed, they are put back into the cue.

If there are so many transactions that the network is overwhelmed... the network may go down for a period of time. and then maybe a fork in the code to restart? YES>... I am continuing to guess.

You know you have an anti-fragile system when the worst thing your enemies can do is throw money at you.

Another good point!!!!!!

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 07:06:24 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:54:02 AM

You have too many presumptions in your descriptions of events... and you are talking gobbledy gook. First you praise and generalize about capitalists and then you suggest that the solution is to take away regulation. That is all bullshit. The problems that we have been having in recent times can be attributed too much liberty being given to capitalists and labor and government has been either too weak or too chickenshit to challenge the exploitation being carried out by capitalist. Look at the situation created as recently as since 2008 whereby jobs have been removed to bust unions and to make people unemployed and to reintroduce jobs at fractions of the previous rates. It was already bad before 2008, but got worse b/c capitalists (especially the filthy rich ones - NOT talking about the mom and pop capitalists, here) were given too much freedom and NOT taxed and allowed to remove jobs and capital and NOT to reinvest.

What planet are you living on? GM almost went out of business because the United auto-workers drove up input costs to the point that they could make no profits. Not small profits. NO PROFITS. Hummer and Oldsmobile had to be shut down because they just couldn't compete. Detroit is now a third world hellhole. Nonunion car factories are springing all over the south and the grandsons of the southerners who migrated to Detroit are migrating back. You are not doing the laborers of the world any favors by driving their employers out of business. This has played out the same way in every heavily unionized industry on earth except for government workers.

I can guess what your solution will be: force every car maker to unionize. So then cars are too expensive to drive, workers get laid off anyway and we all have to ride the fucking bus to work, if we are lucky enough to have jobs at all. Can you even try to see yourself from our perspective? You appear crazy.

First of all, it sounds as if you may have been watching too much Fox news, and you have a very narrow view of the situation (including the auto industry) which causes you to resort to personal attacks, and trying to attempt to assert that you have some kind of superior view of what is going on and that you are part of some enlightened group...

Unions are NOT to blame for these supposed troubles that you attempt to describe. For example, Germany is highly unionized, but they did NOT suffer the same troubles as the US in 2008 ish and thereafter, in part b/c of the unionization in Germany had input into the direction of the companies in germany and did NOT allow capitalists to vulturize companies to reduce jobs and wages and to paint some kind of fantasy land scenario that you describe.... about competition and that non-union is best and that we gotta be exploited in order to compete.. BS....

YES we already know your solution for nearly everything seems to be to get rid of government and to blame people, in spite of the fact that the wealthy have been extracting wealth from the people and NOT paying taxes and debilitating government in various ways.... which causes regular and poor people to have to bear more of the burden of what the rich should be contributing. And the politicians have been going along with all of this redistribution of wealth towards the rich... both parties have been going along with it... b/c there is too much money influencing politics and reducing the facilitation of democratic input.

Quote from: Shak on March 13, 2014, 07:20:57 AM

nah, now you are just plappering the stuff the lobbyists want you to think. gm and co failed because they didn't adapt to the changing market, not because labor was too expensive. in fact, if they pay their workers a good loan, they will buy new cars instead of used ones and will buy them more often instead of driving them until they are worth only the scrap-metal price.

look at countries with real worker unions, eg. germany. didn't got the notion that they are completely inable to deal on an international scale and compete in both, prices and quality.

EXACTLY.....

Quote from: elebit on March 13, 2014, 07:24:46 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 07:06:24 AM

What planet are you living on? GM almost went out of business because the United auto-workers drove up input costs to the point that they could make no profits. Not small profits. NO PROFITS.

You're so blinded by your ideology so you even have to make stuff up.

In reality, GM went out of business because they made cars nobody wanted to buy.

(My theory here is that it was because they were too late to prioritize fuel economy, in turn because the US has artificially deflated oil prices.)

Their European competitors paid their worker higher wages during the same period and they somehow managed to survive. That does not fit your description at all.

Actually, I agree with your pointing out the stupidity and the myopic nature of Billyjoeallen's assertions; however, we cannot really be sure of the problems of GM exactly. Kind of a snow job of a situation. GM pretty much had control of its books, the Union was forced to make concession while NOT being allowed to see the books, and the government intervened to bail out GM and to cause workers to take large ass concessions in order to save the company. Surely, some government officials or government trustees may have found out financial circumstance of GM, but the public did NOT find out these matters.

IT may be correct that GM was NOT making competitive cars, but also there are a large number of other problems in the USA and maybe even other ways that GM may have been spending and or siphoning off money (quite separate from the expenses of labor - take CEO pay for one thing).

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 07:43:03 AM

Detroit car designs suck because all the smart engineers moved to Silicone Valley. German engineers didn't have that option. I wouldn't use Germany as a shining example of a worker's paradise if I were you. It's a place where they work year round to bail out Greeks and Italians who take summers off. They gave loans to other countries so that they could buy German cars and other products and now those countries are defaulting. That's not a good business model.

Sure there are going to be some differences between what companies in different places are doing, and the fact remains that the German car companies were strong in spite of unionization, and they are also, engaged in assisting in the bail out of weaker economies. Powerful stuff.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 07:43:03 AM

Their is no practical way to stop money from influencing politics. It has never been done anywhere, ever. We can only stop the influence OF politics.

So frequently, you are in the practice of making things up and exaggerating facts, so even if this were true, about inability to remove money influence from politics, I would have difficulties believing it. I am NOT going to waste my time to provide you examples in which money can be taken out or regulated from politics. Logically, you have a losing argument to assert such, so emphatically. I see that you like to be stubborn and stick to your facts, whether based in reality or NOT.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 07:43:03 AM

Capital is mobile and the rich will always flee to places where their property rights are protected.

Couple of points here: 1) Yes, capital is mobile and labor is NOT. Rules have been made in that direction, and it remains a form of exploitation, the way that it plays out. and 2) yes, some of you anti-governmental fanatics like to cite these kinds of examples in order to suggest and to argue that we should just give up and wave our white flags and allow race to the bottom politics in order that companies can bid down labor and regulations... b/c they will just go somewhere else if we do NOT kiss their asses and suck their dicks. That is bullshit and disempowering to suggest that governments and people have no power over wealthy people or over wealthy corporations... again.. you are probably watching too much Fox News to be blurting out these right wing talking points that are pie in the sky and have only a semblance of reality contained therein.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 07:43:03 AM

They don't like being slaves anymore than you do, and they have better options.

Yeah.. .try to personalize these guys and try to get me and the rest of your audience to relate. Part of the problem with the poor sympathizing with the rich too often is that they think the rich deserve their earnings and they believe that the rich are people like them... b/c some day, these poor may be rich... .. Again, bullshit.... these rich people need to be paying more taxes and contributing.. and they are a major part of the problem about why the poor is bearing so many burdens and fighting for pie crumbs while the rich are running off with the pie... if the rich paid their fair share then the poor would NOT have to bear so much burden..

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 07:43:03 AM

Communism used to cover almost half the globe and now it's a backwater. This war has been fought and you lost. You never had a chance.

poor guy.. you figure that your back is against the wall and have to again resort to name calling.. I do NOT need to give dignity to your name calling... to try to label people as communists or socialists... They use those labels on Fox.. all the time to try to work their audience into a frenzy....

People can be responsible capitalists... and regulate companies and regulate the rich and tax the rich without being either communist or socialist. So can you learn at some point to stick to discussions of substance rather than engaging in labeling and name calling? I believe that you are capable of such self-restraint, b/c I had seen such in a few of your posts.. maybe in your more calm moments.

Quote from: creekbore on March 13, 2014, 08:25:54 AM

Billyjoeallen and JayJuanGee keep powering the thread along!!

no end in sight

That animation and caption is hilarious!!!!

Quote from: roslinpl on March 13, 2014, 11:04:38 AM

I like this voting stats

We can clearly see our community are rather optimists Cheesy

700$ will come soon!

♥BTC

I voted yes in part b/c the question is so vague.. will BTC reach $700 "soon?" "Soon" can be widely interpreted... end of the day or within the next six months. ... I think it would have better to specify when that "soon" is, which may change some responses to no.

Quote from: aminorex on March 13, 2014, 02:00:43 PM

Overall, I think it's much cheaper and more permanently effective to just hunt down miners and kill them until you can easily do a 51% attack.

Why is it that the easy/direct solution to so many problems is to kill people?

bc you are a PSYCHO Grin

Quote from: Todorius on March 13, 2014, 02:15:57 PM

Does this thread actually contain any bitcoin specific information at all any more?
Apart from a half-hearted CCMF here and there, the off-topic discussions seem to have increased by about 10000%.

I dare even say that the only thing that has a larger gain percentage-wise over time thant bitcoin itself, is the amount of off-topic discussion in this thread.
But I even now predict that off-topic discussions are a bubble. They will have a peak, and then crash towards 0 !!!! So better stop it now, before it's too late! Grin

Earlier in the week, I responded to one of the posts about the Mt Gox hacked information, and I said that I could NOT figure out the data b/c dates of the data were NOT contained therein. MY POST WAS REMOVED b/c it was supposedly off topic.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 13, 2014, 02:39:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:28:32 AM

Very Funny.... and witty, Billyjoeallen... even though you are missing the point about how the capitalist is able to take all the surplus value from the increased benefits and to put them into his pocket.

You're not a capitalist? You work for free or just to cover living expenses?

I have NO problem with people making profits... there is a difference between a form of regulated capitalism and forms of vulture capitalism whereby the rrich exploit and pretty much steal from the people in various ways and make their money using trickery and such leverage. small honest businesses are out gunned when these kinds of vulture capitalists are allowed to run free and unfettered.

Quote from: threecats on March 13, 2014, 04:37:19 PM

I

For the last three days in fact ...

You were participating in some of them as well... Wink

Quote from: BitChick on March 13, 2014, 05:00:42 PM

Quote from: seleme on March 13, 2014, 04:08:58 PM

Damn, all this philosophy in last 10-15 pages makes this thread boring Grin

I could start talking about religion if you are tired of philosophy. Cheesy

Yeah, that would be even worse.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 13, 2014, 05:24:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 04:07:37 PM

I have NO problem with people making profits... there is a difference between a form of regulated capitalism and forms of vulture capitalism whereby the rrich exploit and pretty much steal from the people in various ways and make their money using trickery and such leverage. small honest businesses are out gunned when these kinds of vulture capitalists are allowed to run free and unfettered.

Yeah, that's more or less my point. Often when people criticize "capitalism", they are actually criticizing something else like corporatism. This leads to incorrect conclusions as to how to deal with these problems. Capitalism really isn't an "ism", it just describes the way that civilization has found efficient to trade. To be anti-capitalist is to be anti-civilization at base.

To me, it appears as if you were misreading my earlier post and my use of the word capitalist. I used the word capitalist to refer to persons holding capital. My comment was concerning technology, and the history of recent technological innovations in the USA has disproportionately rewarded the capitalists and NOT workers and NOT other segments of society. This is a dynamic in germany as well, but in germany, labor and the people in general have been more successful to allow for the taking advantage of the technological innovations in order to spread out work and to work less and the rewards of the technological innovations are spread across the people and the society.

So I was NOT specifically criticizing capitalism with my employment of the term capitalist and my description of what seems to have been a major problem in the united states's allowances regarding the capitalists. Also, NOT all capitalists have been able to suck all the surplus value - such as the smaller businesses are stuck attempting to compete and putting up their capital and their risk and then getting screwed by the overall poor business and poor humanity infrastructure in the USA.

IN the USA, you tend to make more money by being a dickhead, rather than by being responsible - even though there are some examples of responsible companies, such as Costco, who treat their workers relatively well, and Costco still is rewarded in the market place. Wallmart is rewarded in the market place, but treat their workers like shit, and deserve to be regulated into a better state of business, humanity and state of responsibility.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 05:40:59 PM

Quote from: octaft on March 13, 2014, 01:24:17 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 12, 2014, 08:20:47 PM

A voluntary society cannot be designed at all. It will be emergent. When a critical mass of people realize that the rules we tell children to live by (namely don't hurt people, don't mess with their stuff, and keep your promises) should be applied across the board, and that no other general rules are necessary, then such a society will form.

There can be no formula for dealing with people in need. As soon as such a formula is known, most of the marginally needy and some of the non-needy attempt to game the system. Subsidizing poverty creates more poverty. The best way to deal with those in need is on an individual case-by-case basis. It's too important of a problem to be left to monopolists. Concrete answers are wrong answers.

Quote from: billyjoeallen

Killing and stealing only works until the productive people stop producing, and then everybody starves. The productive people started leaving South Africa in droves when the anti-capitalist Nelson Mendela took over. There's no place on earth with more natural resources per acre than South Africa. If people are starving there, then it's because the government killers and thieves created an environment hostile to peaceful trade.

Actual good rebuttal, but this assumes all will be rational and well-adjusted. The killers and stealers won't think like this (or won't care/won't have the skills needed to make it in the world), and people who refuse to live by the sword will not be able to allow themselves to starve if they can help it. If we both turn out to be right, you about killing and stealing losing efficacy over time, and me about killers and stealers doing killing and stealing anyway, that's a potential huge blow for your ideal. Having your reasonable people inevitably starved to death at the hand of greedy murderers and thieves is a likely death knell.

Personally, I'd rather people game the system by collecting more food stamps than they are legally allowed, rather then having them just straight up try to blow my brains out and take all my stuff. While I wish we could deal with them on a case by case basis, under the current system I think that would cost more than the money saved by catching fraud. If you think the ability and cost-effectiveness of doing this would be improved in your ideal world, or even if you think there is a way to improve it under the current system, I'd be very interested in hearing about that.

Unfortunately I don't think meaningful improvement is possible under the current system. This is one reason why I am a revolutionary. I see a fundamental weakness in monopoly government that cannot be corrected without allowing distributed competitive governance.

There is no easy solution to the problems in South Africa. I see the best case scenario a hopefully temporary reversion to tribalism. If I lived there, I would leave if I could and retreat to an area controlled by my tribe if I couldn't, hunker down and ride out the storm. It is likely to get much much worse before it gets better.

I would hate to live in the experimental society that you would design after the supposed revolution....

From my reading your various posts on the topic of your vision of what society should be, your society would likely be a very dog eat dog world with a lot of holes and loop holes that do NOT provide for the public to benefit from the public goods.. and probably would NOT adequately protect public goods.... unless of course, after the revolution, your side is able to slim the population down by 80% or more.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 06:05:00 PM

Quote from: octaft on March 13, 2014, 03:21:10 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 13, 2014, 03:15:40 PM

Quote from: aminorex on March 13, 2014, 02:14:32 PM

Frankly I would not want those people working for me. I think everyone is better off if they are bribed into staying out of the workforce. The reason is the same as the reason why the argument that market-based minimum wage is better than mandated is so bogus: Lots of people have negative productivity. No matter how hard they try, they will do more damage than good. GHWBush, and BObama for example. Would you want either of them making you a coffee? Blech.

Problem is, if you pay them not to work, all there is to do is stay home and breed. And now you have five people to take care of instead of two.

People that say stuff like this sound like they subscribe to the Just World fallacy, for this case specifically that every problem someone has stems from themselves, and that you can't possibly be struggling if you're working hard. It's a lie some people tell themselves to make them feel better, usually out of either a fear of it happening to them, believing that it cannot happen to them, or believing that since it has never happened to them, the poor must be doing something wrong. Every ex-CEO probably subscribed to that theory until they had to start delivering pizzas.

Either that, or you have a heavy and unwarranted disdain for poor people, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

I don't have to have a disdain for the poor to understand that vilifying capitalists is not the way to gain/retain the capital needed for economic growth. The labor theory of value has been discredited. The subjective theory of value and marginal utility have much more explanatory and predictive power. Update your economic model.

Yeah. Give them all nice sounding names, and that will help....

NOT....

You need more substance, facts, rather than merely having a nice sounding name and a vision that is NOT based in reality.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 13, 2014, 06:27:45 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:18:20 PM

To me, it appears as if you were misreading my earlier post and my use of the word capitalist. I used the word capitalist to refer to persons holding capital.

Yes. But a person holding capital might also be a machinist putting money into a pension for his later years.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:18:20 PM

So I was NOT specifically criticizing capitalism with my employment of the term capitalist and my description of what seems to have been a major problem in the united states's allowances regarding the capitalists. Also, NOT all capitalists have been able to suck all the surplus value - such as the smaller businesses are stuck attempting to compete and putting up their capital and their risk and then getting screwed by the overall poor business and poor humanity infrastructure in the USA.

IN the USA, you tend to make more money by being a dickhead, rather than by being responsible - even though there are some examples of responsible companies, such as Costco, who treat their workers relatively well, and Costco still is rewarded in the market place. Wallmart is rewarded in the market place, but treat their workers like shit, and deserve to be regulated into a better state of business, humanity and state of responsibility.

So again, it's not really capitalism per se. Just clarifying because I feel it's important.

Richy_T...

I get the sense that we would agree about a lot of the criticisms of the current system, and surely I am NOT opposed to responsible capitalism nor responsible capitalists. Some of our bones of contention seem to come when we get into describing solutions or if we attempt to paint too broadly with solutions. We also may agree about some of the solutions, if we were to take them one by one. It is much too difficult to get into painting broad solutions in a forum like this and through a variety of short written posts.

Though I do tend to agree with one of the points above made by Octaft that removing some of the distractive and corruptive nature of money in politics would likely go a long ways towards moving us in the right direction. I think that movements can be made in that direction, so I would NOT throw my hands up in the air regarding those kinds of potential measures to remove or to lessen the impact of the money in politics matters.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 13, 2014, 06:33:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:25:27 PM

I would hate to live in the experimental society that you would design after the supposed revolution....

You kind missed the point again. He doesn't want to design a society. That's what statists want to do.

You still design by NOT designing... So there is NOT some lofty point that you are getting that I am NOT getting. Billyjoeallen has painted several aspects of his vision of society.. which seems scary if it were to be applied... unless, of course, the world population was 10% or less of its current quantity.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 06:37:22 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:25:27 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 05:40:59 PM

Quote from: octaft on March 13, 2014, 01:24:17 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 12, 2014, 08:20:47 PM

A voluntary society cannot be designed at all. It will be emergent. When a critical mass of people realize that the rules we tell children to live by (namely don't hurt people, don't mess with their stuff, and keep your promises) should be applied across the board, and that no other general rules are necessary, then such a society will form.

There can be no formula for dealing with people in need. As soon as such a formula is known, most of the marginally needy and some of the non-needy attempt to game the system. Subsidizing poverty creates more poverty. The best way to deal with those in need is on an individual case-by-case basis. It's too important of a problem to be left to monopolists. Concrete answers are wrong answers.

Quote from: billyjoeallen

Killing and stealing only works until the productive people stop producing, and then everybody starves. The productive people started leaving South Africa in droves when the anti-capitalist Nelson Mendela took over. There's no place on earth with more natural resources per acre than South Africa. If people are starving there, then it's because the government killers and thieves created an environment hostile to peaceful trade.

Actual good rebuttal, but this assumes all will be rational and well-adjusted. The killers and stealers won't think like this (or won't care/won't have the skills needed to make it in the world), and people who refuse to live by the sword will not be able to allow themselves to starve if they can help it. If we both turn out to be right, you about killing and stealing losing efficacy over time, and me about killers and stealers doing killing and stealing anyway, that's a potential huge blow for your ideal. Having your reasonable people inevitably starved to death at the hand of greedy murderers and thieves is a likely death knell.

Personally, I'd rather people game the system by collecting more food stamps than they are legally allowed, rather then having them just straight up try to blow my brains out and take all my stuff. While I wish we could deal with them on a case by case basis, under the current system I think that would cost more than the money saved by catching fraud. If you think the ability and cost-effectiveness of doing this would be improved in your ideal world, or even if you think there is a way to improve it under the current system, I'd be very interested in hearing about that.

Unfortunately I don't think meaningful improvement is possible under the current system. This is one reason why I am a revolutionary. I see a fundamental weakness in monopoly government that cannot be corrected without allowing distributed competitive governance.

There is no easy solution to the problems in South Africa. I see the best case scenario a hopefully temporary reversion to tribalism. If I lived there, I would leave if I could and retreat to an area controlled by my tribe if I couldn't, hunker down and ride out the storm. It is likely to get much much worse before it gets better.

I would hate to live in the experimental society that you would design after the supposed revolution....

From my reading your various posts on the topic of your vision of what society should be, your society would likely be a very dog eat dog world with a lot of holes and loop holes that do NOT provide for the public to benefit from the public goods.. and probably would NOT adequately protect public goods.... unless of course, after the revolution, your side is able to slim the population down by 80% or more.

I simply want to live in a society where all interactions are voluntary and property rights are respected. If that sounds too distopian to you, find comfort in the fact that I am philosophically am opposed to forcing anyone to create such a society, to live there or to stay there. Can you the the same of your society?

Those are very nice and lofty principles in theory, and they are NOT even bad things to which to aspire. NONETHELESS, we are likely NOT going to be able to achieve complete voluntaryism, especially your concept of the term, and there are social and public benefit and social and public property that are from time to time going to impinge upon the boundaries and property rights of others that are NOT likely resolvable voluntarily. But, in theory I would like a world that also aspires to those kinds of broad principles, to the extent feasible.. so maybe we kind of agree to the broad principles, but NOT to the absolutism of such broad principles to the detriment of society as a whole.

Quote from: Adrian-x on March 13, 2014, 06:39:11 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 13, 2014, 06:33:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:25:27 PM

I would hate to live in the experimental society that you would design after the supposed revolution....

You kind missed the point again. He doesn't want to design a society. That's what statists want to do.

This time it can happen, history has favored the plunder, now for the first time there is a plunder proof store of wealth if you store it properly, if it is stolen it rewords all others not the plunderers.

Bitcoin is NOT going to resolve all of these societal and community questions b/c they are still going to exist; however, bitcoin will likely bring some revolutionary possibilities in the way that we think about our social institutions and how we think about and carry out social interactions.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 06:53:42 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:33:04 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 06:05:00 PM

I don't have to have a disdain for the poor to understand that vilifying capitalists is not the way to gain/retain the capital needed for economic growth. The labor theory of value has been discredited. The subjective theory of value and marginal utility have much more explanatory and predictive power. Update your economic model.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:33:04 PM

Yeah. Give them all nice sounding names, and that will help....

NOT....

You need more substance, facts, rather than merely having a nice sounding name and a vision that is NOT based in reality.

I didn't give them nice sounding names, William Stanley Jevons, Léon Walras, and Carl Menger did over a hundred years ago. It's weird how several different people can independently and nearly simultaneously discover something so supposedly unbased in reality. The same thing happened with calculus. Maybe that's not based in reality either.

If these guys are smart people and they have the mathematical solutions and visions, you surely have NOT done them justice in your summarizing them. or your assertions about the solutions in society.

I am NOT going to waste my time and read up on them, unless some of their ideas, if they have any, are presented to me in a more meaningful and practical way.

In this regard, I get the sense that you get a lot of modern day facts wrong including the role of unions, the detroit problems and us auto industry and the comparison of german companies and society, so why would I have faith in these other sources that you have supposedly digested into your philosophical outlook.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 13, 2014, 07:02:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:49:13 PM

You still design by NOT designing...

And you still don't seem to be understanding that this is a valid way to do things.

I suggest you read a bit about Zen Buddhism or Taoism.

Alternatively, Alan Watts can explain how this applies to our current debate.

Yes I have heard quite a bit of Alan Watts presentations... Some of you guys may need to read economist richard wolff to get some perspectives on labor history and to get a sense of our modern state of affairs and the exploitation of the people by capitalists (my employment of the word capitalist does NOT mean I am against capitalism).

Quote from: Adrian-x on March 13, 2014, 07:06:09 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:57:48 PM

Quote from: Adrian-x on March 13, 2014, 06:39:11 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 13, 2014, 06:33:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:25:27 PM

I would hate to live in the experimental society that you would design after the supposed revolution....

You kind missed the point again. He doesn't want to design a society. That's what statists want to do.

This time it can happen, history has favored the plunder, now for the first time there is a plunder proof store of wealth if you store it properly, if it is stolen it rewords all others not the plunderers.

Bitcoin is NOT going to resolve all of these societal and community questions b/c they are still going to exist; however, bitcoin will likely bring some revolutionary possibilities in the way that we think about our social institutions and how we think about and carry out social interactions.

I agree Bitcoin wont solve a thing, its people who will solve the problems, Bitcoin is just a useful tool, a unique and powerful tool people have never had before.

DITTO>......

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 13, 2014, 07:27:58 PM

Quote from: AlexGR on March 13, 2014, 07:23:00 PM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 13, 2014, 07:06:39 PM

All good news, no more Gox to stop us. Jet packs are full. Prepare to strap in, bears.

People should give no weight to "good" news to up the price because... yadda...

Clearly you're new here. This is the speculation thread. We do not require any factual data to support our assessments. There has been good news: the price will go up. One need only wait long enough.

That is one of the interesting things about the speculation thread... some posters will see good news, and predict the exact opposite of what any other reasonable person would expect.

NONETHELESS, sometimes there are solid bullet points to support why a poster believes the market will go in one direction or another, such as... CCMF........ and I am of that inclination that the stars are aligning us for a CCMF - however, i am NOT clear whether that CCMF will be today or possibly within the next 6 months...

Accordingly, my BTC price prediction timeline is almost too broad to be credible... but it seems to be in line with some others in this thread.... and my long term bullishness seems to be why I am more of a long term kind of dollar cost averaging BTC investor, rather than a day trader.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 07:32:02 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:55:11 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 06:37:22 PM

I simply want to live in a society where all interactions are voluntary and property rights are respected. If that sounds too distopian to you, find comfort in the fact that I am philosophically am opposed to forcing anyone to create such a society, to live there or to stay there. Can you the the same of your society?

Those are very nice and lofty principles in theory, and they are NOT even bad things to which to aspire. NONETHELESS, we are likely NOT going to be able to achieve complete voluntaryism, especially your concept of the term, and there are social and public benefit and social and public property that are from time to time going to impinge upon the boundaries and property rights of others that are NOT likely resolvable voluntarily. But, in theory I would like a world that also aspires to those kinds of broad principles, to the extent feasible.. so maybe we kind of agree to the broad principles, but NOT to the absolutism of such broad principles to the detriment of society as a whole.

The debate might end here, then. There are several strong utilitarian arguments to be made in favor of distributed governance, but I'm probably not the right person to make them. I'm a Natural Rights kind of guy and I don't think coercion is justified even if it produced a net benefit for society, which I strongly believe it doesn't.

Our community just donated over $25,000 worth of bitcoin to a victim of irresponsible media. Is that not evidence of our charitable disposition?

You cannot run a society like that.... this situation got a lot of attention, but there are so many situations of public need that do NOT get attention, and the problem of free riding or free loading is a well known principle in economics and human psychology that people are NOT going to just freely invest in certain public goods, and they are just going to wait for the other guy... b/c they know that they can get it for free.. there are so many examples of this and even examples of natural monopolies that it is very inefficient to build redundant systems.. and those kinds of systems are public goods. I think a lot of you anti-government folks do NOT account for these various factors, and somehow expect that everything important is going to be covered by some kind of hands-off voluntary/free/individualistic system.

Quote from: PoolMinor on March 13, 2014, 08:12:56 PM

I observed this wall today, uploaded for your pleasure.
Edited: vandal's graffiti.

What's it mean?

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 08:17:05 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 07:56:20 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 07:32:02 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 06:55:11 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 13, 2014, 06:37:22 PM

I simply want to live in a society where all interactions are voluntary and property rights are respected. If that sounds too distopian to you, find comfort in the fact that I am philosophically am opposed to forcing anyone to create such a society, to live there or to stay there. Can you the the same of your society?

Those are very nice and lofty principles in theory, and they are NOT even bad things to which to aspire. NONETHELESS, we are likely NOT going to be able to achieve complete voluntaryism, especially your concept of the term, and there are social and public benefit and social and public property that are from time to time going to impinge upon the boundaries and property rights of others that are NOT likely resolvable voluntarily. But, in theory I would like a world that also aspires to those kinds of broad principles, to the extent feasible.. so maybe we kind of agree to the broad principles, but NOT to the absolutism of such broad principles to the detriment of society as a whole.

The debate might end here, then. There are several strong utilitarian arguments to be made in favor of distributed governance, but I'm probably not the right person to make them. I'm a Natural Rights kind of guy and I don't think coercion is justified even if it produced a net benefit for society, which I strongly believe it doesn't.

Our community just donated over $25,000 worth of bitcoin to a victim of irresponsible media. Is that not evidence of our charitable disposition?

You cannot run a society like that.... this situation got a lot of attention, but there are so many situations of public need that do NOT get attention, and the problem of free riding or free loading is a well known principle in economics and human psychology that people are NOT going to just freely invest in certain public goods, and they are just going to wait for the other guy... b/c they know that they can get it for free.. there are so many examples of this and even examples of natural monopolies that it is very inefficient to build redundant systems.. and those kinds of systems are public goods. I think a lot of you anti-government folks do NOT account for these various factors, and somehow expect that everything important is going to be covered by some kind of hands-off voluntary/free/individualistic system.

I don't want to run a society. I want it to run without anyone running it. Kind of like Bitcoin. Free riders are not the primary issue to the truly altruistic. The main issue is "are the needs of the helpless being met?"

You have a clever way of pointing at technicalities such as you do NOT want to "run a society." Who gives a flying fuck whether a person uses the word run or that the society is running on its own...

Ultimately, the point that I am making is that in the real world apart from your fantasy land of generalities (that supposedly is shared by others with similar visions of grandeur), the societal objectives are NOT going to be met. ... and net happiness will be down.. even thou some people may feel free an empowered by such a vague societal outline.... b/c supposed individualized liberty will be embraced and respected... Your whole outline seems much to vague.

And face the reality... you cannot "meet the needs of the helpless" without having various plans that outline such rather than relying on some amorphous concepts of voluntary giving...... and I am quite confident that the helpless will be a much broader category than you are contemplating in your vague outline of principles.

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 14, 2014, 12:52:57 AM

Quote from: fff13 on March 14, 2014, 12:38:04 AM

Last ~4 hours we've been in a tight range.

Interesting.....

Anything less than a 50% flash crash is boring. Wink

Surely, a lot of the money can be made on volatility, and we have been in boring territory for a couple of weeks now...

I mean we have been expecting more volatility than what we have been getting.. especially given the Gox Shenanigans with the bankruptcy filing and then the mysterious movement of 180k GOX BTC money and the hacking of Gox information and the appearance of Dorian... and even the threats from Twobit to "OUT" out the bitcoin foundation......

oh yeah, and then there was the pending blockchain announcement on bloomberg tv... but in the end... mostly all of these resulted in anti-climactical movement that let to no meaningful choochoo in either direction. Is there such a thing as a backward choo choo or a stopped choo choo.... Huh

Even litecoin has been somewhat less than exciting.. regarding movement we thought that there may be some action with litecoin base on its increase exposure to china exchanges... .. but that has, so far, kind of flopped.. with an initial spurt that lasted a few hours at most and overall without any real meaningful price changes... (though maybe a little more back and forth movement in prices as comparison to BTC?)

Quote from: 686f646c on March 14, 2014, 01:01:10 AM

the only flash crash thats going to happen from this point on is when btc-e gets shut down probably this year taking all alts with it

What are your points of contention regarding the problematic nature of BTC e, if any? Are they NOT transparent enough? Are they engaged in fractional banking? What's going on?

Quote from: 686f646c on March 14, 2014, 01:22:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 01:15:59 AM

Quote from: 686f646c on March 14, 2014, 01:01:10 AM

the only flash crash thats going to happen from this point on is when btc-e gets shut down probably this year taking all alts with it

What are your points of contention regarding the problematic nature of BTC e, if any? Are they NOT transparent enough? Are they engaged in fractional banking? What's going on?

no aml/kyc, they don't even ask for name when you sign up, thats where all the stolen btc ends up

I know that I have heard some anecdotal stories of people losing their BTC... on BTC e, also. However, I question whether those are just made up or exaggerated stories. I remember one guy had provided me a link to a story.. but in my view, the story did NOT pan out b/c the person was merely sending out negative stories before there was even an issue of a problem. Surely, it is possible, and maybe I should withdraw some of my BTC from there.. I have about 15 BTC (about 40% of my holdings) on BTCe.

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 14, 2014, 01:22:51 AM

Quote from: creekbore on March 14, 2014, 01:17:55 AM

bid sum has increased to 15M on stamp. Ask 17M.

Wally, how far do you think it has to increase before we get enough upwards momentum?

We might wake from hibernation when bid sum goes over 20M. MIGHT.

Yeah, but nobody really seems to care about those walls, until the trade volume starts picking up... and then the walls start to move closer to the trade price... the pent up demand sort of scenario...

Quote from: creekbore on March 14, 2014, 04:57:12 AM

Quote

The war illustrated that one phase in the Bible may in fact be true."Blessed are the meek: for they shall inherit the earth"

Not sure who the 'meek' are meant to be here --- the Allies?

The meek are the ones who invested in bitcoin early. NOT only did they invest early, but they were also patient enough NOT to sell during times of scaring tactics and accordingly were able to retain enough bitcoin in their wallet(s) in order to wait for the eventual choo choo.

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 14, 2014, 05:06:39 AM

Quote from: Adrian-x on March 14, 2014, 04:28:45 AM

Seriously Richy is correct, roads and almost all the new world Infrastructure is a result of thinking based of a misunderstanding, it's not that we need or don't need them or think paying tolls are unjust. It's just they may not be as relevant as you think if you correct the original misunderstanding and build from a base of free market and mutual cooperation.

It's like you guys can't even hear yourselves talk. You keep saying, "In this world that I imagine in my head, if things had worked out differently and the US would have developed flying cars before cobblestone, you would easily see what a waste of money roads are. Imagine where else we could have spent money if we didn't have roads!"

Yet in this world we call reality roads allowed us to rise above 3rd world status. I'll leave it to you to google "road importance" and maybe you can begin to understand that we wouldn't have any fucking money at all if we didn't have roads.

Please spend some time learning one of the major reasons Rome was able to rise: The Appian Way.

YEAH... but it is NOT only the fact that arguably currently we are better off b/c roads exists, it is also the status quo.

We do NOT just magically of the gathering "progress" from a status quo that has roads to another state of ideal world that the libertarians are projecting where we would have been were it NOT for our investing in stupid ass roads.

To me, it seems more practical that we start from the status quo with roads, and work from there by figuring out how to use the roads that we have. And figure out how to take advantage of the roads that we have.

Let's say for example, there is a decision by the libertarians (and maybe the convince the rest of us) to progress to a new and "better" society that does NOT have roads, there would be a lot of resistance in segments of society to those kinds of ideas and plans... so then we end up in a state of serious disagreement and tension b/c the bright ideas of libertarians want to progress to a "more advanced" state of affairs - a world without roads. GO figure!!!!

ON the other hand, they may just be crying over spilled milk.. to be suggesting these new states of affairs that could have evolved were it NOT for the current evolution... in other words, it may be too late to develop a world without roads.. at least NOT in the next couple hundred years.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 14, 2014, 05:35:36 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 13, 2014, 11:49:17 PM

You have a clever way of pointing at technicalities such as you do NOT want to "run a society." Who gives a flying fuck whether a person uses the word run or that the society is running on its own...

Ultimately, the point that I am making is that in the real world apart from your fantasy land of generalities (that supposedly is shared by others with similar visions of grandeur), the societal objectives are NOT going to be met. ... and net happiness will be down.. even thou some people may feel free an empowered by such a vague societal outline.... b/c supposed individualized liberty will be embraced and respected... Your whole outline seems much to vague.

And face the reality... you cannot "meet the needs of the helpless" without having various plans that outline such rather than relying on some amorphous concepts of voluntary giving...... and I am quite confident that the helpless will be a much broader category than you are contemplating in your vague outline of principles.

Is this less vague?
System A: 60% of the people vote for a 10% tax to help the needy. Tax collection and funds distribution is 50% efficient so the poor get 5% of society's income.
System B: 60% of the people voluntarily donate 10% to help the needy directly and the poor get 6% of society's income.

The poor are better off under system B but I suspect this is unacceptable to you because helping the poor is less important to you than forcing everyone to conform to your values.

Your numbers are unacceptable b/c you seem to be pulling them out of your ass.

You seem to be assuming that voluntary is more efficient than non-voluntary and you seem to be assuming that voluntary results in a higher amounts of contributions through some kind of adequate participation rate.

Also, I have NO idea the tax methodology contained therein, and some of these dynamics to create a kind of flat tax, is usually NOT acceptable - even though you did not outline what kinds of taxes that you were suggesting.

Taxes are NOT such a big monster and enemy to the individual freedom that you are making them out to be - even though I will admit that it seems that in many regards, in modern application taxes are all screwed up... and a lot of the screw up has to do with the generous tax cuts to the rich for more than 30 years... which have been causing increasing burdens on regular people. and also in regards to the preferential treatment of the rich, in various regards, and death of unions and other democratic institutions, there has been considerable redistribution of wealth from regular and middle and lower classes to the undeserving spoiled ass rich.

I am NOT jealous.. b/c I have NOTHING against people being able to become rich.. the problem is that there has been such widespread corruption and failure to pay taxes by rich people and even subsidies, that this has been contagious and even decent rich people get lured into this trap of never ending desire for more.. even when they have plenty.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 14, 2014, 07:31:33 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 06:53:24 AM

You seem to be assuming that voluntary is more efficient and you seem to be assuming voluntary results in a higher contributions through some kind of adequate participation rate.

Obviously voluntary contributions are more efficient because people resist being forced to do stuff. They evade, avoid, run, hide, and fight back. Monopoly welfare providers also face no competitive pressure to be efficient.

"Obviously"..... yeah, right.. so obvious that you are speculating. just making things up on some kind of logic in your head that sounds convincing to you and to the other libertarians who want the facts to be what you speculate them to be.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 14, 2014, 07:31:33 AM

If participation is inadequate, we have two options: I prefer persuasion and you chose coercion.

There you go creating my position. Having mandatory, is NOT the same as coercion.. b/c a large majority of the people do NOT need to be coerced to follow rules of their own making and a society of their own choosing and a community in which they chose to live... I would NOT call that coercion. But you want to call it coercion in order that you can knock it down and to show all of its flaws. Your thinking is very incomplete in these regards. Maybe you need to get away from your imagination and meet people and talk to people and you will see that there are different viewpoints out there that need to be accounted... also, that is called listening.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 14, 2014, 07:31:33 AM

The danger with coercion is that the coercive mechanisms remain in place and can be used for socially harmful as well as socially beneficial ends. Taxes fund war, graft, secret police, etc.

YES... I agree that there are a lot of problems with various ways that tax money gets put to work to carry out dirty deeds. Sometimes the dirty deeds are mixed in with what is arguably justifiable... and yes we do find out about tragedies being committed in our name ... And, some of these may be solved by taking away funding or may be solved by better election procedures or may be solved by greater transparency... there is NOT only one solution to these kinds of negative application of the arm(s) of government.

Quote from: pungopete468 on March 14, 2014, 08:08:09 AM

*Patiently waiting for a Chinese Bail-in*

I had a dream last night... I was watching the Bitcoin price chart at $640 and then all of a sudden the price just started skyrocketing, it went to $1,200 and then $5,000 in minutes... Then I woke up and thought, "well that was a wishful dream."

Strange times indeed...

Why didn't you wake up and say, "fuck, I should have bought more bitcoin at $640...." Angry

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 14, 2014, 08:28:55 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 08:11:54 AM

Having mandatory, is NOT the same as coercion.. b/c a large majority of the people do NOT need to be coerced to follow rules of their own making and a society of their own choosing and a community in which they chose to live... I would NOT call that coercion.

If I resist paying taxes, the government intervenes with the threat of force. Threat of force is the very definition of coercion.

If people are really choosing to make rules to provide welfare, then they can skip the intermediate step and chose to provide welfare. Everything else is coercion.

That is why this back and forth communication with you is getting NO WHERE - b/c you keep insisting that your being part of a community is coercion... and you give way too much weight to this coercion aspect - to the extent that taxes are mandatory and a part of civil society, and almost anywhere in the world has some taxes.. though there is variation. If you are an American (or another western country), you have won the lottery, b/c you can move almost anywhere in the world with your passport and find some haven that has little to no taxes. What country are you from? You seem to want the benefits of being part of a community, but you do NOT want to pay into that community's rate of taxation.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 14, 2014, 02:27:13 PM

To expand more on the roads thing with a specific example: I work in a place called Cool Springs which is a rapidly growing (yay low taxes) area in middle-Tennessee. It has grown so quickly that the road structure is struggling. This year, Tennessee will spend billions of taxpayers money to upgrade the road structure to accommodate those people (including me). In the meantime, tens of thousands of people are spending a significant chunk of time sitting in traffic everyday leading to untold loss of productivity and/or leisure time and burning significant fuel doing nothing.

And yet... the growth in this area is mostly white-collar. The huge proportion of these people could probably work from home (something you would understand, Keyser). Vast amounts of time and resources could be saved. Yet there is no incentive to do so because those taxes are going to be taken and the roads built regardless. If it was laid out in front of people as a straight choice, maybe things would work out differently. Of course, maybe they wouldn't. But that's kind of the point, to let the market decide. Who knows, maybe we'd even have more roads, better roads. Maybe if you wanted to head to New York from here (or wherever you are) and you had a sufficiently equipped vehicle, you could hop on a 180mph toll road and be there in no time. The point is that the one-size-fits-all of government action leads to inefficient solutions.

The more you explain, the more we should be able to recognize how detached you are from reality.

Roads are NOT going to be built in any kind of efficient way without public funding. Surely, there may be better ways to go about accomplishing the same objectives, but roads are within the community desires about the solution. If you want another solution, besides roads, you have to convince the community to move in that direction. In your rural Tennessee example, that is converting to a less rural existence, the community seems to have decided that it wants more roads.... b/c they see that as the solution to the issue of having more people in the area.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 14, 2014, 02:30:47 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 14, 2014, 05:35:36 AM

The poor are better off under system B but I suspect this is unacceptable to you because helping the poor is less important to you than forcing everyone to conform to your values.

It's like the kid who when given a treat is upset because their sibling got a bigger treat. People need to look to themselves, not others. It's the "If I can't have you, nobody can" mentality.

Here's another example of near incomprehesiveness, describing a conclusion and then putting a label on some created scenario that makes little to no sense - b/c both the previous arrived conclusion and the comment regarding the conclusion are quite separated from reality.

Here also is an example in which the context should have NOT been snipped... b/c a new reader is NOT going to understand the conclusion or the comment b/c too much of the context has been snipped.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 14, 2014, 02:40:24 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 06:39:08 AM

Let's say for example, there is a decision by the libertarians (and maybe the convince the rest of us) to progress to a new and "better" society that does NOT have roads, there would be a lot of resistance in segments of society to those kinds of ideas and plans... so then we end up in a state of serious disagreement and tension b/c the bright ideas of libertarians want to progress to a "more advanced" state of affairs - a world without roads. GO figure!!!!

WTF JJG? You keep assigning these ambitions to others when that is not the case. Libertarians would decouple the roads from government and allow the system to develop in a natural and organic manner. My point with the roads is that what we would have *now* if this had happened a long time ago not that we magically jump from setup A to setup B. That is what collectivists do with their grand solutions and five-year-plans.

Yes... it may be a little unfair for me to attribute fuzzy logic to all libertarians - b/c certainly, some of the libertarian ideas are decent ones.

I am NOT opposed to getting value from ideas that can make us move in a better direction to improve personal liberties and even to improve voluntariness under current systems, to the extent those kinds of fixes are feasible.

A problem, however, in this discussion is that the vision of no government or little government gets so preoccupied with criticizing government but comes up with few if any realistic solutions to address public concerns and the roads example is a good one, especially if we are going to describe the proposed solutions systematically.

I really do NOT understand the point of arguing about our supposedly being in a better position (possibly) if we did NOT have roads. That makes very little sense (even if it were true). Currently we have roads, and that is our starting point.. NOT some hypothetical fantasy land world without roads, and that life without roads may be more of a Richy_T argument rather than attributable to other libertarians.

Anyhow, I do NOT mean to insult anyone (including you Richy_T) with any guilt by association type assertions; however, I had been using some of the labels, such as attributing certain kinds of ideas to libertarians) to simplify to some extent... b/c there is a common theme that seems to be, but I also find that labels do NOT always quite capture various nuances in what is being proposed (apart from the less government angle)

Quote from: Richy_T on March 14, 2014, 02:48:22 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 14, 2014, 08:28:55 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 08:11:54 AM

Having mandatory, is NOT the same as coercion.. b/c a large majority of the people do NOT need to be coerced to follow rules of their own making and a society of their own choosing and a community in which they chose to live... I would NOT call that coercion.

If I resist paying taxes, the government intervenes with the threat of force. Threat of force is the very definition of coercion.

If people are really choosing to make rules to provide welfare, then they can skip the intermediate step and chose to provide welfare. Everything else is coercion.

Forget it, JJG's makes up his own definitions to rationalize his desire to believe he supports freedom against his desire to control others.

War is peace, freedom is slavery, all that good stuff.

It is NOT about making things up.

We have already seen several times that terms are thrown out with some baggage or some meaning that differs from one side to another. If we remain unclear about our terms, then we are going to have more difficulties communicating our ideas. Anyhow mandatory and coercion are NOT the same even though they are similar concepts, and I explained to some extent, the context for my distinguishing mandatory and coercion.

Quote from: dreamspark on March 14, 2014, 03:39:52 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 03:23:02 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 14, 2014, 08:28:55 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 08:11:54 AM

Having mandatory, is NOT the same as coercion.. b/c a large majority of the people do NOT need to be coerced to follow rules of their own making and a society of their own choosing and a community in which they chose to live... I would NOT call that coercion.

If I resist paying taxes, the government intervenes with the threat of force. Threat of force is the very definition of coercion.

If people are really choosing to make rules to provide welfare, then they can skip the intermediate step and chose to provide welfare. Everything else is coercion.

That is why this back and forth communication with you is getting NO WHERE - b/c you keep insisting that your being part of a community is coercion... and you give way too much weight to this coercion aspect - to the extent that taxes are mandatory and a part of civil society, and almost anywhere in the world has some taxes.. though there is variation. If you are an American (or another western country), you have won the lottery, b/c you can move almost anywhere in the world with your passport and find some haven that has little to no taxes. What country are you from? You seem to want the benefits of being part of a community, but you do NOT want to pay into that community's rate of taxation.

He literally just told you why being part of a community is coercion, what dont you understand...

Literally? I do not want to get caught up in the meaning of literally.

Anyhow, part of the reason that we have some of this back and forth communication on this topic is b/c we have differing understandings on some terms, including the term coercion. So, at this point, I am a little unclear about the point that you are making Dreamspark? Did you want to chime in to clarify what is so clear about coercion and why living in society is coercion?

There are people from third world countries who are fighting for the chance to live in america, in spite of all its supposedly "coercive" taxes.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 14, 2014, 03:50:52 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 03:41:12 PM

Roads are NOT going to be built in any kind of efficient way without public funding. Surely, there may be better ways to go about accomplishing the same objectives, but roads are within the community desires about the solution. If you want another solution, besides roads, you have to convince the community to move in that direction. In your rural Tennessee example, that is converting to a less rural existence, the community seems to have decided that it wants more roads.... b/c they see that as the solution to the issue of having more people in the area.

Where did you get "rural" from? Could you stick to what's written? It's a two lane interstate that takes 20 minutes to go 5 miles for mostly unnecessary commutes. There's your central planning.

Yeah... let's get on a tangent...

Frequently, a central reason for adding lanes or roads is a perceived need b/c of population growth or traffic congestion.

I do NOT know about the circumstances or the rationale for the road in your non-rural tennessee location, except for your proclamation (one citizen's assessment) that it was NOT necessary b/c they could have substituted flying cars in that location.

I do NOT want to minimize the importance of your input, but I am sure that there was more than one person that decided that the road was going to be a benefit to the community and that is why it was built. And, also with public projects there are opportunities for community stake holders to comment regarding the necessity or lack thereof of the project.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 14, 2014, 04:18:59 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 03:59:12 PM

I really do NOT understand the point of arguing about our supposedly being in a better position (possibly) if we did NOT have roads. That makes very little sense (even if it were true). Currently we have roads, and that is our starting point.. NOT some hypothetical fantasy land world without roads, and that life without roads may be more of a Richy_T argument rather than attributable to other libertarians.

Again, you miss the point. It is not about the roads directly, it is about government control of the roads. Now, you will say that the government has to be in control of the roads and that, indeed, is the point of contention. That centralized control reduces the opportunity for a wider range of solutions.

Yes, roads seem to be a very good example of a public good, and if roads are a public good, then the public has a right to have input into their direction, extent, quality and quantity... amongst other things related to such, in the event that they are considered to be public.

As we know, sometimes roads can be private too.. as I would presume most of us recognize there are still concepts of private property rights that are recognized that will end up involving private roads built on the private property.

Having public input will likely result in varying degrees of control, and sometimes, these control may be given up - depending upon the extent to which public interests are perceived to be a factor.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 14, 2014, 04:23:45 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 04:21:54 PM

I do NOT know about the circumstances or the rationale for the road in your non-rural tennessee location, except for your proclamation (one citizen's assessment) that it was NOT necessary b/c they could have substituted flying cars in that location.

It is certainly a solution but is it the best solution? Are not people running around waving their hands in the air about the amount of CO2 motor vehicles are emitting? What about traffic fatalities? Trees plants and animals killed and destroyed by increased paving?

Who gives a flying fuck (there I go again, with my recent favorite expression in this thread)?

These are all factors that the non-rural tennessee public could have taken into account when they were deciding about the best solution in the circumstances of that particular community. Did you go to any of the meetings that involved the discussion of the road? You could have had your input regarding the better flying car solution?

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 14, 2014, 04:26:48 PM

Since you are still conflating the words "community" and "government". Here's what your post would look like, if we substitute one for the other.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 03:41:12 PM

Roads are NOT going to be built in any kind of efficient way without public funding. Surely, there may be better ways to go about accomplishing the same objectives, but roads are within the governments desires about the solution. If you want another solution, besides roads, you have to convince the government to move in that direction. In your rural Tennessee example, that is converting to a less rural existence, the government seems to have decided that it wants more roads.... b/c they see that as the solution to the issue of having more people in the area.

Haven't you ever heard of a situation in which what the government wants is perceptibly different from what the community wants. You keep using sentences like

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 03:41:12 PM

Roads are NOT going to be built in any kind of efficient way without public funding.

, stating them as fact and acting like you have provided an argument. You treat your opinions like fact (at least your statements lead me to believe this) and that makes debating you quite annoying imo. Take octaft for example. He seems to view matters similarly to you but seems to have a much more open mind about it.

Anyway do you really believe the government is an accurate expression of the will of the community? That they are functionally the same thing?

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 03:23:02 PM

If you are an American (or another western country), you have won the lottery, b/c you can move almost anywhere in the world with your passport and find some haven that has little to no taxes.

and still be hounded by the IRS lol Cheesy

Yes community and government are very similar terms - that is true.. And, varying levels of government are going to be more accessible than other levels of government and treat different public interest issues and jurisdictions.

I would imagine that you know as much as me that there are varying levels of government.

so what if Octaft is nicer than me..? who cares? people have their different styles and different levels of patience.

regarding my renditions of what I believe to be the facts versus opinion.... Yes, sometimes, I make statements about matters that are assertions that may or may NOT be under contention.

Frequently, people who live in fantasy lands attempt to create new facts or get caught up in technicalities... so maybe I am just trying to avoid too much fantasy... I am NOT trying to take away from anyone's ability to challenge my assertions b/c I have NO intention to misstate actual material facts - except for when it is fun to do so (with immaterial facts)... such as the flying car example... hehehhehe....

If you believe I misstated something material to be a fact that is NOT a fact, then let me know.

Quote from: dreamspark on March 14, 2014, 04:29:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 04:15:28 PM

Literally? I do not want to get caught up in the meaning of literally.

Anyhow, part of the reason that we have some of this back and forth communication on this topic is b/c we have differing understandings on some terms, including the term coercion. So, at this point, I am a little unclear about the point that you are making Dreamspark? Did you want to chime in to clarify what is so clear about coercion and why living in society is coercion?

There are people from third world countries who are fighting for the chance to live in america, in spite of all its supposedly "coercive" taxes.

Clearly in its original meaning as he had just told you why. * facepalm

Anyhow, you can try and say we have different understandings of the term but that is not the case. You have a different understanding of it in comparison to the real definition. Look, "Persuade (an unwilling person) to do something by using force or threats:" is the dictionary definition of coercion. If you can argue that being a part of society in regards to paying taxes against your will under the threat of force is not coercion then I'll be flabbergasted.

Perhaps we can try a different approach cause Im pretty bored of seeing your sensless rants. Can you explain how it is not coercion as an explaination as to why it is coercion has been offered several times.

It seems that i have already explained sufficiently why living in a community is NOT necessarily coercion, even though there may be varying coercive aspects to living in a community and some communities will have more coercive aspects than others. You do NOT agree or you believe that I am missing something, so why go on about it?

Quote from: aminorex on March 14, 2014, 04:30:11 PM

The system of governance and the community are in competition for resources. When the system has more power, the available resources are allocated into the growth of the system. When the community has more power, the available resources are allocated to the welfare of the community. Decentralization removes power from the system, and adds it to the community.

The general problem with socializing things is that in practice costs are socialized, and benefits are privatized. A lack of effective checks and balances will mean that the fox is always hired to guard the henhouse.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 03:41:12 PM

Roads are NOT going to be built in any kind of efficient way without public funding.

I'm glad you emphasized that because otherwise I would have thought it wasn't true. I've seen the road work around here, and it's pretty clear that the ratio of supervisors to workers is 4:1, that roads are rebuilt when they are in perfectly good condition (presumably because someone's brother-in-law owns the tar & sand company), that roads are built in places where nobody wants them, that roads are not built in places where people want them, that millions are spent on roads, but no one can be chuffed to spend a couple thousand on a traffic light until at least 4 or 5 people get killed at a given intersection, that the competence of traffic planning falls somewhere between the Riddler and the Joker. Why? Because there's no competition which demands excellence, or even a slight whiff of competence.

Quote

the community seems to have decided that it wants more roads.... b/c they see that as the solution to the issue of having more people in the area.

If it works like it works around here, the community has precious little to do with it. County commissioners hire managers who decide what happens. There's no real community participation and no real accountability for what they do. Certainly the system has done what you say in the example you reference, but whether the community has done so is a separate question.

county commissioners are usually elected.. but they could be appointed... so yes, you can elect these people to carry out public services.

Maybe we are going back to the problem of money in politics b/c certainly, we should want our publicly elected officials to act in the public's interest rather than in some narrow interest. And, if they are NOT having public meetings or receiving public input from time to time about their various public projects, then they may be doing a disservice to the public. Sometimes, there is NOT a need for public meetings for public projects that are NOT controversial.

Certainly, how these matters play out will vary from community to community.

I agree that sometimes there may be a need to reallocate how power is retained in various governmental entities, and there may need to be less centralization, depending on the functions of that governmental entity. But, I do NOT agree that the solution would be to privatize public goods - though sometimes that direction may be appropriate... depending on the good or service. Even in those kinds of cases, the good would likely retain its public nature, but just be managed privately (which may still require public oversight).

Quote from: donut on March 14, 2014, 04:33:43 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 04:15:28 PM

Anyhow, part of the reason that we have some of this back and forth communication on this topic is b/c we have differing understandings on some terms, including the term coercion.

At the risk of repeating myself,

Coercion /koʊˈɜrʃən/ is the practice of forcing another party to act in an involuntary manner by use of intimidation or threats or some other form of pressure or force, and describes a set of various different similar types of forceful actions that violate the free will of an individual to induce a desired response. These actions can include, but are not limited to, extortion, blackmail, torture, and threats to induce favors. In law, coercion is codified as a duress crime. Such actions are used as leverage, to force the victim to act in a way contrary to their own interests. Coercion may involve the actual infliction of physical pain/injury or psychological harm in order to enhance the credibility of a threat. The threat of further harm may lead to the cooperation or obedience of the person being coerced.
src

Care to provide the definition you are using?

Repeat yourself ad naseum... In essence, we do NOT disagree about that definition of coercion.

It seems that we just disagree about whether choosing something is coercion.. such as choosing to live in a society and being a member of a community... I am asserting such choices are NOT coercion.. even though there may be mandatory elements within living in a society.... and even though people in this thread are making out mandatory to be the same as coercion.

It seems to me that you seem to be getting side-tracked about something that is NOT in contention.... even though there has been, for about 20 pages, a contention about whether or NOT coercion applies...

You and several of your buddies in this thread are asserting that coercion applies and is important and that coercion is a central consideration in these kinds of conversations about taxes, and I am asserting that the application of coercion is of much less importance that people in this thread are making it out to be. I do NOT deny the existence of coercion, just the amount of emphasis being given to it. Hopefully that helps.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 14, 2014, 05:02:01 PM

so often. This is not the first time you are saying about people that they live in "pie in sky" fantasy land. I do not know whether I live in fantasy land, nor whether you do. But have YOU considered that you might live in fantasy land, too? I am not implying you are, but that it is important to keep the possibility in mind.

Yes, each of us view the world based on our experiences, opinions and beliefs. Some of these are more grounded in reality. I do NOT view someone to be living in fantasy land merely b/c s/he has a different view point than mine, and also, I do NOT throw out these accusations lightly. If someone begins to talk about facts that are clearly NOT true, and NOT supported by evidence, then I begin to throw out these kinds of accusations.

You may be correct that I may have thrown out the accusations a few times without a context, so in that regard, there may have been a miscommunication regarding my reference point.

For the record, I have no problem with innovative solutions, and potentially incorporating innovative ideas in places where they have NOT been previously applied. NONETHELESS, I am NOT going to throw out what is working for innovation, if the concept has NOT been thought through to some extent.

Here, we may need a specific example... and let's take bitcoin, for example. At this point, I do NOT agree with ideas of throwing out the dollar for bitcoin, b/c bitcoin may NOT be ready to handle all of that. However, I may be willing to throw out silver and substitute bitcoin for silver or to throw out some country's smaller currency for bitcoin. Or throw away part of the dollar, such as international remittances and let bitcoin take that portion of the market. I am just saying that sometimes, we do NOT want to attempt too much unless we think that our proposals can handle the situation. In any event, I am only one person's opinion, so I understand that others may have differing opinions and prognostications regarding a large variety of matters, including the role of government and community in our daily lives.

Quote from: dreamspark on March 14, 2014, 05:03:04 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 04:54:40 PM

You do NOT agree or you believe that I am missing something, so why go on about it?

Um, isnt that what a conversation is. You dont agree with whats being said to you or you think that others are missing something so you keep going on about it. Difference is other people arent changing word definitions of their own accord and don't consistently state their opinions as facts.

Anyway, no need to reply to this. We're not getting anywhere because you make yourself immpossible to converse with.

YES... YOU ARE VERY possible to converse with. hehehehe

You throw out a personal attack and then you say, o.k... no need for me to respond.

Let me just say, the reason that I am saying that we do NOT need to go on about this particular topic is that if we cannot agree upon basic definitions (such as the application of coercion in government and I have been addressing variations of this question in various places for ~~nearly 20~~ more than 50 pages), then we are NOT going to agree about other conclusions that are built upon those definitions.

Personally, I do NOT find it fruitful or productive to spend time discussing things with people in circumstances in which we do NOT agree about fundamental definitions. Sometimes we may go around and around the bush several times, and then figure out that we do agree on a redefinition of our original disagreement, yet I am just saying why go around and around the bush several times when it does NOT really matter that much. I would rather talk about bitcoin related stuff b/c I do NOT feel that I need to resolve these role of government matters ... NOT at the moment....

Several posters have already made their points on the role of government topic in several ways... though I get the sense that probably, a few of us are NOT completely exhausted, yet, and accordingly, the discussion is NOT quite over, yet. hehehe...

TO DA MOON

Quote from: dreamspark on March 14, 2014, 06:08:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 05:41:15 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on March 14, 2014, 05:03:04 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 04:54:40 PM

You do NOT agree or you believe that I am missing something, so why go on about it?

Um, isnt that what a conversation is. You dont agree with whats being said to you or you think that others are missing something so you keep going on about it. Difference is other people arent changing word definitions of their own accord and don't consistently state their opinions as facts.

Anyway, no need to reply to this. We're not getting anywhere because you make yourself immpossible to converse with.

YES... YOU ARE VERY possible to converse with. hehehehe

You throw out a personal attack and then you say, o.k... no need for me to respond.

Let me just say, the reason that I am saying that we do NOT need to go on about this particular topic is that if we cannot agree upon basic definitions (such as the application of coercion in government and I have been addressing variations of this question in various places for ~~nearly 20~~ more than 50 pages), then we are NOT going to agree about other conclusions that are built upon those definitions.

Personally, I do NOT find it fruitful or productive to spend time discussing things with people in circumstances in which we do NOT agree about fundamental definitions. Sometimes we may go around and around the bush several times, and then figure out that we do agree on a redefinition of our original disagreement, yet I am just saying why go around and around the bush several times when it does NOT really matter that much. I would rather talk about bitcoin related stuff b/c I do NOT feel that I need to resolve these role of government matters ... NOT at the moment....

Several posters have already made their points on the role of government topic in several ways... though I get the sense that probably, a few of us are NOT completely exhausted, yet, and accordingly, the discussion is NOT quite over, yet. hehehe...

TO DA MOON

You make no sense, you do realise that this isnt a competition to see who can write the most words. You just ramble on and on and dont make any points. Ive highlighted the major sticking point. Its not that we cant agree on a basic definition it is that you wont accept one. Anyway, good day to you and welcome to ignore.

Yes. Insult and then ignore.

Listening is half of the conversation, which you have chosen NOT to do....

Quote from: Richy_T on March 14, 2014, 06:11:32 PM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 14, 2014, 05:58:43 PM

Quote from: hdbuck on March 14, 2014, 05:50:10 PM

yeeea but still, you cant blame people for being used to car's noise since it has been invented and suddenly change it. it do create a lot of accidents.

Please point me to the studies which reveal low noise EVs create lots of accidents. Your position is that we abdicate personal responsibility while crossing roads? Perhaps we should raise taxes so we can provide large titanium bubbles for people to use while crossing roads - it would certainly make them more safe.

I propose we issue all blind people with jet-packs so that they can completely avoid the road crossing situation.

This will involve slightly more expensive training for the guide-dogs but I think the outcome will be worth it.

The blind people might object but we can make it a government mandate which would mean it is voluntary (apparently)

I am glad that you are keeping a good sense of humor about this.

And, it moves us in the flying car direction, too.... win, win.. outfit the dogs and the owners with synchronized jetpacks that must follow exact governmental specifications. And, the synchronized packs would be voluntary so long as the blind wanted the dogs to live...

In the event of non-compliance with any of the particulars, then death sentence to the dog.... something like that..... We'll have to work out the details... or maybe we will just implement and let the details be worked out at some later point.. see how it plays out...

Quote from: dreamspark on March 14, 2014, 06:29:42 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 06:22:26 PM

Yes. Insult and then ignore.

Listening is half of the conversation, which you have chosen NOT to do....

Aw poor boy did I hurt your feelings?

I never insulted you I said your rants were senseless which they are. YOU are the one whos not listening...

So you are listening.. I thought that you were going to ignore me. So does that mean that you are allowing me the graces of your ear and a chance to respond to your latest post or not.... Maybe you are too fickle to be able to tolerate such?

Regarding emotion: I do NOT get worked up about these kinds of posts b/c I accept that there are a variety of opinions out there, and sometimes posters get worked up and engage in personal attacks or other whimsical discourtesies. I have been guilty of it myself, from time to time, and even more difficult to keep a polite tone when trying to type quickly and to get the ideas out quickly... b/c as we all know, there are only so many hours in the day. I am also open to having some of these potentially controversial discussions via PM to the extent that there may be a way to address issues (that may be personal) outside of the public thread.

Actually, one of the difficulties with any proposed change is to figure out the extent to which various aspects of the existing system may need to be dismantled in order to incorporate new ideas. For sure, I am NOT opposed to considering and possibly trying out new and innovative ideas; however, frequently a problem with these various anti-government ideations that posters are proposing to implement, there is a push to get rid of government (and taxes) on a broad and comprehensive scale, as if government were the oppressor of the people (or the one coercing the people), but then that solution usually would NOT account for the fact that frequently government may be the only force that we have that is powerful enough to keep large corporation and the rich in check, regarding the various methods that the rich and large corporation employ to exploit regular people. Without government, then frequently regular people would lose much of their voice and power and would be outgunned by the resources of the rich and the large corporations.

Generally, the government is NOT the evil to fight, except to the extent to which it is either coopted by the forces of the rich or that the government is NO longer representing the people.... and frequently, trickle down is insufficient method in ensuring the needs of the people are met (maybe that's where coercion comes to play?)...

Quote from: podyx on March 14, 2014, 07:20:38 PM

^ pulled

1 day charts is ridicolously similar to the april crash pattern

i aint selling today

i still expect $700+ this weekend.

but if it dips, let it dip, im brining fresh fiat

It sure would be nice to get into the $700s at some point in the near future... I am a bit pessimistic, though, about whether we are going to experience that over the weekend.. maybe by the middle of next week, though.

I generally add a few more BTC or fractions of BTC when there are dips in the BTC prices....

Currently, what is your next buy point? I am thinking that my next buy point would be under $610... and then again at $580... yet my buy point will fluctuate based on how quickly we are getting to that point.. b/c when possible, I would prefer to buy at the lower price... like any good capitalist.... hehehehe

Quote from: podyx on March 14, 2014, 07:52:22 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 07:46:05 PM

Quote from: podyx on March 14, 2014, 07:20:38 PM

^ pulled

1 day charts is ridicolously similar to the april crash pattern

i aint selling today

i still expect $700+ this weekend.

but if it dips, let it dip, im brining fresh fiat

It sure would be nice to get into the $700s at some point in the near future... I am a bit pessimistic, though, about whether we are going to experience that over the weekend.. maybe by the middle of next week, though.

I generally add a few more BTC or fractions of BTC when there are dips in the BTC prices....

Currently, what is your next buy point? I am thinking that my next buy point would be under $610... and then again at $580... yet my buy point will fluctuate based on how quickly we are getting to that point.. b/c when possible, I would prefer to buy at the lower price... like any good capitalist.... hehehehe

if price is gonna go down, it might aswell go down large

$500 would be cool

i'd take sub $550 though

I'm with you. BTC price lingering remains part of the aggravation... b/c I believe many of us expect BTC prices to be maintaining higher levels, even at the moment.

Getting periodic buy opportunities can be good; however, if the price lingers too long at a lower level, then the opposite affect may occur, too... a loss of confidence in the value of BTC....

Well, I anticipate that in the medium to long term, we should be good though and likely 6-12 months we will be hovering in the $1500 range...

Rosey picture?

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 14, 2014, 07:53:43 PM

you are still not getting my point...

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 05:31:00 PM

If someone begins to talk about facts that are clearly NOT true, and NOT supported by evidence, then I begin to throw out these kinds of accusations.

how the hell do you determine this so readily? What is true or not. I am starting to think that your ego is making it impossible to get this point. I am abandoning hope for meaningful conversation with you, sorry.

That's fine... Abandon all you want.

I do NOT know why you would want to continue to ask me questions that I have expressed my opinion that I already sufficiently answered.

If you want some interaction on a level that is more in line with your way of thinking and accepting of your definitions of the world, then I have NO problem with that. Go forth and search for such interactions.

I would think that you should be able to accomplish all of your communication objectives in this regard without having to throw slurs at me.. and to suggest that I am NOT getting your point or failing to understand you. I already mentioned several times, that I am NOT trying to trick you with any of my various responses.... I just don't feel inclined to continue to answer various questions that I either recognize as too basic and trivial or that I feel that I have sufficiently answered those questions in various repeated ways... . And, if you want further answers to definitions or parameters that I have set forth, then you may need to go somewhere else to seek those kinds of answers.

I do NOT want to suggest exact sources - b/c it seems that i have already made such suggestions and I doubt that you are inclined to take my further suggestions in this direction, so we should be able to leave these matters on polite terms and agree to disagree.... but instead, you seem to be inclined to throw out slander rather than merely agreeing to leave the topic and to disagree on respectful terms.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 14, 2014, 08:17:36 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 03:23:02 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 14, 2014, 08:28:55 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 08:11:54 AM

Having mandatory, is NOT the same as coercion.. b/c a large majority of the people do NOT need to be coerced to follow rules of their own making and a society of their own choosing and a community in which they chose to live... I would NOT call that coercion.

If I resist paying taxes, the government intervenes with the threat of force. Threat of force is the very definition of coercion.

If people are really choosing to make rules to provide welfare, then they can skip the intermediate step and chose to provide welfare. Everything else is coercion.

That is why this back and forth communication with you is getting NO WHERE - b/c you keep insisting that your being part of a community is coercion... and you give way too much weight to this coercion aspect - to the extent that taxes are mandatory and a part of civil society, and almost anywhere in the world has some taxes.. though there is variation. If you are an American (or another western country), you have won the lottery, b/c you can move almost anywhere in the world with your passport and find some haven that has little to no taxes. What country are you from? You seem to want the benefits of being part of a community, but you do NOT want to pay into that community's rate of taxation.

There is a difference between not wanting to pay and not wanting to be forced to pay. You don't have to agree with me to understand that many people resist being controlled regardless of who is doing the controlling or why. YOu have no evidence that I don't want to contribute to society. Your assumptions I suspect are based on projection. It's YOU who doesn't want to contribute unless everybody else pays their "fair" share with you determining what's fair.

I agree with you regarding the part that people do NOT want to be controlled, and people want to have control in their lives.

Now, you are saying that I do NOT want to pay... Surely this is crazy talk.... What i said was that the fact that the very rich do NOT pay their fair share, and that the very rich have been receiving reductions in their contributions for about 30 years, these reductions have caused the rest and regular people to have to pay more. What does this have to do with me - except for the fact that I am claiming that I am NOT one of the very rich? However, even some people who are part of the very rich, including warren buffet and I believe bill gates, have recognized that the system is way too skewed in favor of the rich and that they have conceded that the rich (including themselves) need to pay more taxes in order to have more sustainable systems and infrastructure, etc etc etc.

Also, I have never suggested that any of these community designs are up to me, and you should realize that if you were NOT so hell intent upon skewing reality and trying to get your way with name calling that is NOT based in reality. Democratic input is part of the complications of taking into account a multitude of stakeholders in a process that involves compromise and frequently everyone NOT getting what they want.. but NONETHELESS attempting to satisfy the needs of the most stakeholders. Surely, these kinds of processes are complicated and they are hard to follow and they are frequently flawed in application. Nonetheless, they are NOT what you are framing them to be. They are NOT one person or small group deciding, except to the extent to which the one person or the group has been duly elected or properly appointed within the process. Then those kinds of groups and people have discretion within their office to carry out the mandates of their office within the public interest parameters. The only way that I would be deciding would be if I were elected or appointed within an office that has discretion over the areas upon which I am supposed to decide. Hopefully this clarifies, somewhat.

Quote from: aminorex on March 14, 2014, 08:21:27 PM

Quote from: podyx on March 14, 2014, 07:52:22 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 07:46:05 PM

Currently, what is your next buy point? I am thinking that my next buy point would be under $610... and then again at $580... yet my buy point will fluctuate based on how quickly we are getting to that point.. b/c when possible, I would prefer to buy at the lower price... like any good capitalist.... hehehehe

$500 would be cool

I try to stage buys just above support levels, in sizes proportionate to the anticipated support. If momentum seems strong, I will bias to the lower end of the bid stack. I see resistance at 625, 618, 608, 600, 584 on technical grounds. I think 550 is dreaming.

I would think that these numbers are constantly changing... well they may hold for a period, but then some of them adjust and sometimes one or two whales can make a very big difference with a sudden change of heart or the pulling of two walls, when we did NOT know that was the same whale.

Quote from: podyx on March 14, 2014, 08:59:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 08:44:54 PM

I'm with you. BTC price lingering remains part of the aggravation... b/c I believe many of us expect BTC prices to be maintaining higher levels, even at the moment.

Getting periodic buy opportunities can be good; however, if the price lingers too long at a lower level, then the opposite affect may occur, too... a loss of confidence in the value of BTC....

Well, I anticipate that in the medium to long term, we should be good though and likely 6-12 months we will be hovering in the $1500 range...

Rosey picture?

in 6-12 months, the trendline would be 2400-4800(according to ristos calculations) and i believe a price of $6k in 12 months is more realistic then $1.5k

it seems we are always hovering a bit above the trendline(not now though) except for the flash crashes, hence downward pressure

I like your numbers better than mine (that were pulled out of my ass to some extent), but I do NOT know what is ristos calculations... so I guess, I am shooting from a position of disadvantage.

Quote from: hdbuck on March 14, 2014, 09:25:41 PM

seriously? 3 posts in a row? hopefully its the only resident of my ignore list Cool

I thought that you were ignoring me? So how could you see my posts? Maybe I do NOT understand ignore b/c so far I have NOT employed such a tool.

Quote from: donut on March 14, 2014, 09:44:28 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 09:30:09 PM

Quote from: hdbuck on March 14, 2014, 09:25:41 PM

seriously? 3 posts in a row? hopefully its the only resident of my ignore list Cool

I thought that you were ignoring me? So how could you see my posts? Maybe I do NOT understand ignore b/c so far I have NOT employed such a tool.

It looks like this: http://i.imgur.com/TGd2H7O.png

That's funny... but the print out makes sense, that a subscriber would only see the contents by unignoring the "ignored" poster.

Maybe I should ignore me, too... b/c I do NOT like to read my own posts?

Quote from: podyx on March 15, 2014, 03:29:34 PM

now according to my sources, we'll be at $700-760 in 2-3 days

OK>>>>> I will bite... who are your sources?

Quote from: podyx on March 15, 2014, 05:56:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 15, 2014, 05:18:41 PM

Quote from: podyx on March 15, 2014, 03:29:34 PM

now according to my sources, we'll be at $700-760 in 2-3 days

OK>>>>> I will bite... who are your sources?

secret sources Cool

jk, i really have no sources, dont know why i said that

but i base it on the april crash pattern and it really feels like we need to start go up here, good news out etc.

YES... I see from where you are coming..... an irresistible urge to write something in this thread, when mostly all we see is a series of chart buddy posts.

Also, I am of a similar sense that we are going to get an upward breaking of BTC prices and even an upward trending at some point.... (despite our 3.5 months of downward trending)...

In current times, though, I am becoming more and more reluctant to put specifics to my projection and my feelings about BTC.... and I get my sense of upward BTC price pressure from the continuing building of BTC infrastructure... and the increasing awareness of the public of BTC, and surely some people are putting their money into alt cryptos b/c they believe those alts are more affordable than BTC and a better speculative investment, but in the end... the gravitational movement in the totality of the crypto scene is going to be mostly with BTC, with maybe a few of the alts tagging along for an upward ride.

In that sense, the BTC and crypto space expansion seems to greatly outnumber any retractions that simultaneously may be occurring... ..

Regarding our current poll in this thread: there does seem to be a fairly even divide concerning whether posters believe that the BTC settling point will be below 600... NONETHELESS, I get the sense that if we are going to settle somewhere with these BTC prices, then we are going to be settling in the $750-$850 range... maybe for a few months before we continue our upward trajectory....

And, yeah, all of us seem to be guessing..... whether we are using graph lines or using thumb to the wind or using alignment of stars....

In any event, BTC fundamentals seem to be shaping up very well and as good as can be expected... at least for an upward trajectory into the next few years...... even with a few governmental naysayers who want to regulate, here and there, there seems to be quite a bit of acceptance of BTC and cryptos, overall... or if we may NOT call that BTC acceptance, we may call it a growing governmental tolerance of BTC.... still considerable amount of confusion about BTC remains... and likely there are going to be various kinds of regulations that may stifle BTC in various respects... and maybe causing some delays in the upward trajectory.. or cause some suppression of BTC prices.

Who can predict details beyond various speculations to where this bad girl is gonna go and to give a specific timeline for such movements? .. ... I'm thinking the I should plan for the best, yet prepare for the worst.... a kind of hedging of bets... Prepared to lose all that i have invested, but becoming increasingly confident that losing everything is becoming less and less likely.... NONETHELESS, I remain TOO chicken to go all into BTC..... though going all in would bring a greater chance of becoming BTC wealthy..

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 15, 2014, 09:42:50 PM

Quote from: bassclef on March 15, 2014, 06:27:10 PM

Look at someone like loaded or rpietila. You can bet they are helping their wealthy friends/family get bitcoins and properly secure them.

ummm... Loaded says he buys for people and that he lost coins on Gox. Risto was holding coins for people and lost them all. Might want to re-evaluate "properly secure them."

I would feel really badly, if I were entrusted to hold someone's BTC, and then I had put all of them on MT GOX.... If a person wants to sue such a person, the standard would be, reasonable person standard. Was it reasonable for a trustee to store the BTC on GOX? The arguments could go either way, and hindsight is 20/20.....

I think that overall, anyone knowledgeable of the BTC world should have diversified out of GOX - especially if that person was a trustee over the custody of someone else's coins... - though I could see why it may have been attractive to have some of the BTC in GOX... just NOT 100%..... ...

All in all, I do NOT blame the victims for having some faith in GOX.... //// and a lot of people have hope that there is a possibility that in due course, they will be reimbursed for a percentage of their GOX holdings.... If I were a gambling man, I am NOT sure exactly where I would put the odds... maybe 50% chance that investors will be reimburse 20% of the value of their Gox holdings...

I had heard (on one of the bitcoin podcasts) that there is a GOX coin under development (something other than bitcoin builder) that is going to provide the public with a market value in order that investor's can make such a bet through such a coin. Will be interesting to see the progress and value of such a coin, once it comes out.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 15, 2014, 11:37:28 PM

Quote from: podyx on March 15, 2014, 11:09:35 PM

holy shit, i have never seen this low volume

this is truly the calm before the storm i've been waiting for, i believe

Looking at Huobi (whose volume seems less "random" than Bitstamp), the volume was this low on Feb/06, Feb/19, and Mar/02 (UTC; may be 1 less in your local time)

The first two low-volume dates were followed by large price drops: 110 USD (on Bitstamp, 800 to 690) and 70 USD (630 to 560). The third date was follwed by a large price increase: 110 USD (~560 to ~670)

Let us say for example that the lull were to be followed by more lull? Then when the more lull is over, you would describe the situation that the lull was "followed by" ___(choose one: "Increase" or "decrease"), and "more lull" would NOT be one of the options that you provide... right?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 16, 2014, 12:39:50 AM

Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on March 15, 2014, 11:40:31 PM

[ in the first two we were ] waiting for some news from gox

Indeed, for the first and second press releases, due Feb/10 and Feb/20; the drops were clearly due to disappointment and the claim of "bug in bitcoin" (Although the tense wait for the first was on Sun Feb/09 not Thu Feb/06, right?).

There seems to be no consensus about the causes of the third minimum-volume day Mar/02 and the rally on Mar/03. The immediate cause of the latter was a huge buy in Bitstamp. However I recall that there were big expectations about an upcoming Bloomberg TV announcement; could that be it? (But that was a flop, and yet the price rallied...

Regarding the anticipated Bloomberg TV announcement and then the occurrence of the TV announcement. The rally seemed to occur about 24 hours prior to the TV announcement - before we knew what was the announcement, we got a BTC price rise; however, once the announcement occurred, we receive nearly immediate decline. Whether the anticipation caused the upward price rally and the disappointment caused the decline in price, that would be for someone other than me to argue such b/c I am unclear about whether something else may have been occurring at that same time to cause those price movements.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 16, 2014, 04:33:16 AM

The Guardian, March 14, 2014:
MtGox knowingly traded non-existent bitcoins for two weeks, filing shows
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/mar/14/mtgox-knowingly-traded-non-existent-bitcoins-for-two-weeks-filing-shows

I figured that we would be finding out some information like this b/c once Gox knew that it did NOT have the BTC, that may have triggered some kind of obligation for them to either stop doing business completely or to disclose that they did NOT have BTC - otherwise, fraud allegations could likely be successfully proven.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 16, 2014, 06:29:21 AM

Someone suggsted that the low volume is due to the Spring break in US universities. I have been trying to find out if this weekend is especially significant in China, without much success. It seems that some universities start classes around this time, but others don't. Any clues?

I thought that perhaps the non-Chinese exchanges are the source of volatility, in spite of their small volume. Namely, 1 BTC of trade at Bitstamp moves the price by some amount, then arbitragers propagate the change to Huobi, and traders at Huobi react by swapping 10 BTC among themselves before settling more or less where they were before and propagating that back to Bitstamp. Thus, with the western markets shut down because of Spring break, the Chinese ones just sit still. Makes sense?

EDIT: one argument: in the Chinse exchanges the only asks and bids are for speculation inside the exchange, whereas outside China there are asks and bids that are generated externally, eg. by people who want to buy things with bitcoin.

I really doubt that it would be fruitful to follow the angel that bitcoin is supposedly driven by students.. and that their spring break affects trading volume. It seems too big of a logical stretch.... or an attempt to look for the zebra when the explanation is a horse.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 16, 2014, 04:57:02 PM

Quote from: chriswilmer on March 16, 2014, 04:38:21 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 16, 2014, 04:12:07 PM

Is it my impression, or has there been a general clamp-down on discussion and analysis of the MtGOX heist and its leaked database? Tongue

It's just your impression and, more generally, the impression of Bitcoin bears.

People who have a predisposed opinion that Bitcoin is a bound-to-fail concept thought that the failure of Mt.Gox was proof that they were right. They assumed that Bitcoin would have gone to zero by now and that we would all be constantly talking about it.

People who are optimistic about Bitcoin's future don't find the Mt.Gox drama that interesting.

As the bitcoin bulls say, MtGOX is MtGOX, and bitcoin is bitcoin. The coin will succeed or fail no matter what the bears think.

But the fact that the "bitcoin community" does not want to know what happened inside MtGOX, to me, means that the MtGOX scam was not confined to Karpeles and the hypothetical hacker. Shouldn't investors be interested to know whether other prominent bitcoin businessmen are involved?

I would NOT let what some bitcoin users say signify the whole of the bitcoin community. Surely, there is NO consensus concerning the impact of Gox and the extent to which the GOX findings are going to continue to influence bitcoin beyond GOX... surely some bitcoiners are wishing that GOX would go away... but so what? There are going to continue to be aspect s of the Gox matter that will ripple into the bitcoin space b/c of the extent of it and b/c the story is still lacking in clarity... and accordingly evolving.

NONETHELESS, I have the sense that a lot of the major and uncertainty aspects of the GOX situation is contained, and the worst of the GOX situation has already been absorbed into bitcoin prices.... and maybe that is why we are getting stagnation and seemingly slow upward movement rather than getting an upward spike in BTC prices.

Quote from: LMGTFY on March 16, 2014, 06:47:09 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 16, 2014, 06:29:47 PM

Quote from: LMGTFY on March 16, 2014, 05:01:33 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 16, 2014, 04:57:02 PM

As the bitcoin bulls say, MtGOX is MtGOX, and bitcoin is bitcoin. The coin will succeed or fail no matter what the bears think.

But the fact that the "bitcoin community" does not want to know what happened inside MtGOX, [ ... ]

That's not really a "fact", more your opinion of what other people may think.

I'm interested, just mindful that there's likely going to be a long wait before before we have any news.

Well, I belive it is a "google fact", in that I can't find any new analyses; and at least this site, which had the database on line and seemed to have made some interesting discoveries, has shut down.

I guess I don't understand "Google fact" - it still seems a massive jump from "I couldn't find any new analyses on Google" to "the 'bitcoin community' does not want to know what happened".

this is a very good point LMGTFY. I appreciate a lot of the contributions of Jorge b/c frequently he seems to be providing facts along with his various opinions; however, every once in a while we get these zingers of logical leaps that are very misleading.... And really, I believe that Jorge is smarter than that... and who the fuck is going to conclude that the whole bitcoin community thinks one thing or another based on what a few in the community may be saying.... or even if some kind of dominant theme seems to exist...

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 16, 2014, 07:06:41 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 16, 2014, 05:49:29 PM

Yes, there are bad actors and yes the scandal may implicate other players. We do want to know what happened but we're burnt out on this story. [ ... ] You dwell on the negative always.

Whatever happened at MtGOX, it is certain that some 500,000 BTC now belong to a thief or scammer. Added to other scams and thefts, known and unknown, it may be that more than 1 million BTC now belong to bitcoin criminals. If those people go unpunished and get to keep their bitcoins, such crimes will not stop with MtGOX.

So, if bitcoin succeeds like his most ardent fans believe, perhaps 10% of all the money supply in the world will belong to criminals. You want me to root for that? Angry

The more you attempt to defend this line of logic, the more ridiculous it begins to seem.

I am fairly certain that each dollar that has been in existence for more than a couple of years, has passed through the hands of at least 10 criminals. NOW certainly, the newly printed dollars may NOT yet had opportunities to pass through the hands of more than one or two criminals b/c those dollars are going straight to the banking criminals who are hoarding those dollars.. .or perhaps investing them in some off shore location.. such as china or germany, where they can get greater return than they perceive to be able to get if they were to invest those dollars in the US of A...

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 16, 2014, 10:58:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 16, 2014, 07:28:29 PM

I am fairly certain that each dollar that has been in existence for more than a couple of years, has passed through the hands of at least 10 criminals.

That is quite different than "10% of the money supply in the world is in the hands of common criminals".

You keep repeating this speculation as if it were true, merely b/c it is possible. Yes, it is possible that 10% of bitcoins are in the hands of criminals. However, under the scenario that you paint, it is highly unlikely. Why would criminals want to hoard bitcoins? They may clean them first before hoarding them, but likely they would cash out of some of them, if it were true that "criminals" were holding 10% of bitcoins.

Also, you are NOT even clear with your definition, exactly, what is a criminal. I am gathering that you are defining a criminal as someone who has taken someone else's bitcoin.

If it is a small group of people, then is their plot to hold bitcoin in order to sabotage bitcoin in one way or another. I doubt it. Usually, thieves are NOT that ideological nor that sophisticated. Usually, thieves are inclined to steal in order to reap the benefits of the theft (and accordingly to cash out). Since dollars are more liquid than bitcoins, it is likely that a lot of these 10%, if they were to exist, are in dollars, and NOT in bitcoins... .. so, therefore, your theory about 10% of bitcoins being in the hands of thieves is NOT only highly unlikely but also highly implausible in terms of its speculative value.

Quote from: surfer43 on March 17, 2014, 03:20:22 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on March 17, 2014, 03:18:45 AM

Quote from: lyth0s on March 17, 2014, 12:26:51 AM

http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

I think bitcoin may drop to $566 before trending back up. Lyth0s March through July 2014 bitcoin prediction here.

hey, I made a similar chart a few days ago. :-)

I am using the gox data until bitcoinaverage was tracking the data.

Now looking for additional historical data (I need it for my thesis)

Yeah... these straight lines of predictive pricing make very little sense to me.

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 17, 2014, 05:16:15 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 17, 2014, 12:01:10 AM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on March 16, 2014, 11:24:07 PM

Who thinks the situation in Ukraine will spark something in the bitcoin price?

Do you think the Ukranians have the infrastructure to use bitcoin in times of war? I dont, I dont think it will be useful in war. However, there may be a few millionaires/billionaires in Ukraine or Russia that want to protect/hedge their fortunes. but why haven't they already done so?

Because it only has gone down over the last few months. That in combination with nothing but scams, hackers and crooks and no sane, rich person would put his money in Bitcoin. Not exactly rocket science.

Just the opposite. Seems like a good time to invest in bitcoin, especially for some rich person who wants to diversify his/her investment portfolio.

Quote from: Threebits on March 17, 2014, 05:25:25 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 16, 2014, 05:25:52 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 16, 2014, 04:57:02 PM

Quote from: chriswilmer on March 16, 2014, 04:38:21 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 16, 2014, 04:12:07 PM

Is it my impression, or has there been a general clamp-down on discussion and analysis of the MtGOX heist and its leaked database? Tongue

It's just your impression and, more generally, the impression of Bitcoin bears.

People who have a predisposed opinion that Bitcoin is a bound-to-fail concept thought that the failure of Mt.Gox was proof that they were right. They assumed that Bitcoin would have gone to zero by now and that we would all be constantly talking about it.

People who are optimistic about Bitcoin's future don't find the Mt.Gox drama that interesting.

As the bitcoin bulls say, MtGOX is MtGOX, and bitcoin is bitcoin. The coin will succeed or fail no matter what the bears think.

But the fact that the "bitcoin community" does not want to know what happened inside MtGOX, to me, means that the MtGOX scam was not confined to Karpeles and the hypothetical hacker. Shouldn't investors be interested to know whether other prominent bitcoin businessmen are involved?

I would NOT let what some bitcoin users say signify the whole of the bitcoin community. Surely, there is NO consensus concerning the impact of Gox and the extent to which the GOX findings are going to continue to influence bitcoin beyond GOX... surely some bitcoiners are wishing that GOX would go away... but so what? There are going to continue to be aspect s of the Gox matter that will ripple into the bitcoin space b/c of the extent of it and b/c the story is still lacking in clarity... and accordingly evolving.

NONETHELESS, I have the sense that a lot of the major and uncertainty aspects of the GOX situation is contained, and the worst of the GOX situation has already been absorbed into bitcoin prices.... and maybe that is why we are getting stagnation and seemingly slow upward movement rather than getting an upward spike in BTC prices.

and the worst of the GOX situation has already been absorbed into bitcoin prices.. Huh

I wonder what fresh whales would consider. Would they jump in? They might think, where is the
transparency, where is security, and where is secrecy?

Interestingly, a bitcoin activist claimed he had big bitcoins trapped in mtgox, but the hacked documents proved he had little balance, showing he lied, and furthermore, he also had lied that he had only stocked and never sold.

Seems to me, the worst of the GOX situation might have already been absorbed into bitcoin prices, but we are far from an uptrend. Behind, the fundamental problems in transparency, security, etc are still out there.

Seems as if we are making very similar comments, just using different phrases.

Quote from: lyth0s on March 17, 2014, 06:27:19 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 17, 2014, 06:20:22 AM

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on March 17, 2014, 05:29:12 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 17, 2014, 05:16:15 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 17, 2014, 12:01:10 AM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on March 16, 2014, 11:24:07 PM

Who thinks the situation in Ukraine will spark something in the bitcoin price?

Do you think the Ukranians have the infrastructure to use bitcoin in times of war? I dont, I dont think it will be useful in war. However, there may be a few millionaires/billionaires in Ukraine or Russia that want to protect/hedge their fortunes. but why haven't they already done so?

Because it only has gone down over the last few months. That in combination with nothing but scams, hackers and crooks and no sane, rich person would put his money in Bitcoin. Not exactly rocket science.

Nailed it!

A sane rich guy would put his money in whatever asset was resistant to seizure if seizure was his primary concern.

It would have to be resistant to seizure and resistant to price crashes. For it the investment could easily hit $0, he may as well just have it seized.

with a volatile asset it could go to zero... but it could go to $10,000 or more, as well. Could lose 100% or could gain 1000% or more.

Accordingly, it would be worth the gamble to put some assets into BTC. OH.. by the way, BTC probably has a better chance to gain value than to lose value at this point.. and going to zero seems really unlikely.. though it may lower in value... that is possible.

Quote from: chessnut on March 17, 2014, 10:28:21 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 17, 2014, 09:25:39 AM

Quote from: TERA on March 17, 2014, 09:09:56 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 17, 2014, 08:38:55 AM

I think we will see 560 in the next 24 hours. if this is the sale of stolen coins, we could see lower. his is a natural 3 wave decline, and should pass wave A extreme (590)

The 24h volume on bitstamp is still only 4705btc. If stolen coins were actually being sold, then you would start to see 6 digit volume numbers. Keep in mind also that over 3600 coins are mined per day. This obviously isn't stolen coins. This is a different problem. It's called "nobody is buying".

I agree and I think it likely that many stolen coins were sold long ago, and kept prices depressed.

There are macroeconomic factors in play also. Relatively less money printing by the central bank, uncertainty on the Ukraine situation, lower wealth effect due to stock market pullback, etc.

I dont honestly think that stolen coins are being sold now. But why not, the volume has to start somewhere, and the night is young. The only reason why I bring it up is because if the stolen coins are sold on BTCe for examlple, the price could fall well below trend line resistance.

If I had stolen coins that I wanted to rid and make good cash out of them, (what a hypothetical?), I would continuously be selling at whatever rate the market could bear. And, low volume would mean probably only being able to sell at 10 to 20 BTC at a time. or maybe even breaking up into smaller amounts. One of the problems is thereafter converting to fiat, so it would be better to find items to buy in the market, like Teslas, even though that would likely draw too much attention... since there are NOT too many big ticket items to buy, and likely any big ticket items will receive some scrutiny.. since BTC is such a novelty.. So really, I would NOT know what to do.

Quote from: Todorius on March 17, 2014, 11:48:57 AM

Quote from: mellowyellow on March 17, 2014, 11:41:10 AM

Calling 520 within 48hrs. Then down to 380, then we're done with the bubble and can resume moon mission.

PS. Please don't take this as advice, I no longer trade BTC, I just enjoy charting it

With these predictions, it is good that you no longer trade BTC Grin

YEAH... s/he (mellowyellow) ran out of BTC from engaging in stupid-ass trades.... like the one just predicted. The prediction is possible, yet highly unlikely and based on zero backup in the real world.

Quote from: barbs on March 17, 2014, 12:06:46 PM

ask wall dissapeared... we'll see if it will be dumped or what

either way, some one guy holding that many btc on bitstamp... with no buying going on right now no thanks for additional buying on my side. I'm hodling + waiting for a better price with my fiat, even if it takes months.

I must have been sleeping during this part. HOW big of a wall was it? How many BTC? 10,000? or 5,000? NOT a bad time to be in BTC... in my thinking.... even though it is possible that we will see a little more downward movement... if we get in the lower $600s, I may buy a little more...

Quote from: tarmi on March 17, 2014, 12:44:55 PM

Quote from: podyx on March 17, 2014, 12:40:38 PM

Quote from: Zapffe on March 17, 2014, 12:37:36 PM

Quote from: podyx on March 17, 2014, 12:35:29 PM

isn't this the part where fonzie is supposed to come out and spread fud??

wehre is he? Cry

fonzie is a btc bagholder now.. getting drunk and praying at the Shrine of Satoshi, like rest of the sheep...

oh yeah, thats right lol.

he said he went all in not too long ago

when a perma-bear goes all in, you know where we are heading next.

Where?

Quote from: jl2012 on March 17, 2014, 04:02:20 PM

It's just like in Bitcoin's early days, when people could tip 10BTC for an interesting post here

Quote from: Blitz on March 17, 2014, 03:40:20 PM

....

Maybe bitcoin should move to the satoshi.. in order that people can feel like they are tipping big..... and say... I liked you so much, I just tipped you 1,036,000 satoshi.

Quote from: aminorex on March 17, 2014, 05:45:41 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 17, 2014, 04:47:13 PM

...since there are NOT too many big ticket items to buy...

https://www.bitpremier.com/

OK.... I will, in part, take back what I said...

I meant to suggest big ticket items and the ability to remain somewhat untargeted.

Through a site, such as bitpremier, it does seem possible to liquidate some coins through a site... and it does seem possible to stay somewhat anonymous... However, if bitpremier is engaging in know your customer practices (and I base that on its various affiliates), then it may NOT be easy to relieve oneself of ill-acquired bitcoins...

From what I can see, I would NOT feel very confident going through bitpremier... unless they just put you in contact with each other... and say, go at it on the side.... harder for any service to make money, if they let parties engage in their own interaction(s).... Craigslist seems to do o.k. by letting parties engage in their own interactions...

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 17, 2014, 05:58:54 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 17, 2014, 05:50:55 PM

Quote from: solarflare on March 17, 2014, 04:50:19 PM

Could we make the polls a little bit more serious ?
That is, leave "yes", "no" and "idk" but remove the moronic all caps options ?

i think those options weed out the not so serious voters
trolls can't help but hit the troll options, which give more meaningful results to the yes,no,idk option.
its a troll trap and it works, when i'm not sure, and i feel like trolling the poll i hit buy buy buy.

Aside from your reasoning, it is your fucking poll. Do what you want. So many nannies want to control other people in this world. If solarflare wants a poll with his 3 serious options, solarflare can go make his own fucking poll elsewhere.

It is too bad that poll results were NOT posted into the thread.... maybe we could get chart buddy to work on it, since s/he does NOT seem to be too busy these days, with such stable BTC prices...

Quote from: cbutters on March 17, 2014, 06:22:42 PM

I'm probably wrong, but I'm smelling a choo choo up to 656 within the next 24hrs....... Based on the new triangulation of the trendlines. I'm most likely wrong on this though.

What an air of confidence!!!!

Quote from: eiskalt on March 17, 2014, 10:37:19 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 17, 2014, 10:01:24 PM

Quote from: eiskalt on March 17, 2014, 09:52:45 PM

Litecoin about to cross 0.0283 BTC per LTC at BTC-e?

Litecoin to meet Bitcoin at 135 USD?

there X4 more litecoin then bitcoin (...)

True, but there are also X4 more chinese than americans.

I would expect the chinese to jump ship from bitcoin to litecoin quite soon.

That makes NO sense.... but then... sometimes the market makes no sense, either. Undecided

Quote from: arepo on March 17, 2014, 11:21:01 PM

rapid loss of depth on both the bid and ask side from the bitstamp orderbook in the past hour.... what's going on Huh

traders finally moving orders that had been parked since the beginning of the painfully low volatility?

I don't see any meaningful changes regarding the order book walls.

I see 6,000 bitcoins on each side of the order book (at least for the next $60 in each direction)..... pretty much unchanged from previous order book wall amounts

Quote from: derpinheimer on March 17, 2014, 11:50:45 PM

Quote from: arepo on March 17, 2014, 11:34:46 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 17, 2014, 11:25:54 PM

Quote from: arepo on March 17, 2014, 11:21:01 PM

rapid loss of depth on both the bid and ask side from the bitstamp orderbook in the past hour.... what's going on Huh

traders finally moving orders that had been parked since the beginning of the painfully low volatility?

I don't see any meaningful changes regarding the order book walls.

I see 6,000 bitcoins on each side of the order book (at least for the next $60 in each direction)..... pretty much unchanged from previous order book wall amounts

courtesy of bitcoinity

Sorry but hes right, the order book is looking terrible.
Bid depth was 9.2k to 600 and ask 7.7k to 700 -- <4 days ago

Now:

Bid depth only 4.6k, 50% reduction, and ask depth to 9.6k.

So, if loss of bid depth on both sides is dramatically measurable, that likely translates to a short-term loss of interest in BTC and likely downward trends.... unless some big-ass whale comes in to cause some upward drama.... or unless some kind of big and meaningful news drops upon us.

We cannot really bet on any of this b/c this information is NOT really solid, but I suppose that there may be a bit of signalling among whales in order to attempt to continue to keep BTC prices down and to slowly accumulate cheap coins.... ... and maybe we could get a month of this kind of slow downward movement...

Nonetheless, I am a little worried to bet upon it... so likely I am going to hang onto what BTC i have and keep DCA buying...... I am more likely to buy a little bit in the next day or so... ...b/c we are kind of floating in this same ... $620 to $640... territory.

Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on March 18, 2014, 01:29:56 AM

https://www.mtgox.com/

Quote

Important announcement to all users confirming their account

This balance confirmation service is provided on this site only for the convenience of all users.

Please be aware that confirming the balance on this site does not constitute a filing of rehabilitation claims under the civil rehabilitation procedure and note that the balance amounts shown on this site should also not be considered an acknowledgment by MtGox Co., Ltd. of the amount of any rehabilitation claims of users.

Rehabilitation claims under a civil rehabilitation procedure become confirmed from a filing which is followed by an investigation procedure. The method for filing claims will be published on this site as soon as we will be in situation to announce it.

Finally, they are making some sense b/c someone other than MK is drafting the communications (even though it happens to be lawyer-talk)...

Quote from: ardana123 on March 18, 2014, 01:33:56 AM

Phew, my 0.00340434 BTC are still there.

Yeah.. I bet you were losing a lot of sleep regarding that stash.

Quote from: Dr. LY on March 18, 2014, 01:53:48 AM

Isn't this sort of good news? After all, doesn't this imply that at least some of the lost Mt. Gox money is going to be returned?

Personally, I believe that it does NOT imply any return of coin, but it does allow the users to verify balances and to be on NOTICE regarding the amount that GOX shows in their account.. so if the customer wants to dispute the GOX amount then, they have to raise those kinds of concerns. Probably, it also will take away some concerns that people have to rectify their records with GOX... There is some value in this for GOX to clarify these amounts to the public, but it does NOT imply that the customers will get anything more than 0% in respect to those amounts.

Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on March 18, 2014, 02:51:01 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 01:23:41 AM

So, if loss of bid depth on both sides is dramatically measurable, that likely translates to a short-term loss of interest in BTC and likely downward trends....

I say it means hoarding has really begun.

Trading and hoarding are two different concepts.... .. ... ... YET I take it that a fair translation,in the trading, scenario would be that hoarding is HODLING....... which means... I am NOT giving up my coins until the price goes up.... Cheesy

Quote from: arepo on March 18, 2014, 02:56:22 AM

Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on March 18, 2014, 02:51:01 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 01:23:41 AM

So, if loss of bid depth on both sides is dramatically measurable, that likely translates to a short-term loss of interest in BTC and likely downward trends....

I say it means hoarding has really begun.

a WILD CONJECTURE has appeared! Tongue

pretty sure it was just traders shifting the position of their orders in response to the first significant price action in almost a week. i forgot how far you guys in this thread will extrapolate and exaggerate any innocent data...

I would NOT describe a $5 to $10 downward trickling movement as a "significant price action."

Quote from: arepo on March 18, 2014, 03:18:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 03:17:05 AM

Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on March 18, 2014, 02:51:01 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 01:23:41 AM

So, if loss of bid depth on both sides is dramatically measurable, that likely translates to a short-term loss of interest in BTC and likely downward trends....

I say it means hoarding has really begun.

Trading and hoarding are two different concepts.... .. ... ... YET I take it that a fair translation,in the trading, scenario would be that hoarding is HODLING....... which means... I am NOT giving up my coins until the price goes up.... Cheesy

not to scare you, but what if the price never goes back up? it's certainly a possibility that you must consider.

YES>>>>>> I believe that the bears have reminded readers of this thread sufficiently that we readers CANNOT for get about that NOT GOING UP possibility...... so yes, I have considered that possibility, and I am NOT too SCARED !!!!!!!!!!, yet.

Quote from: arepo on March 18, 2014, 03:41:05 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 03:19:14 AM

Quote from: arepo on March 18, 2014, 02:56:22 AM

Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on March 18, 2014, 02:51:01 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 01:23:41 AM

So, if loss of bid depth on both sides is dramatically measurable, that likely translates to a short-term loss of interest in BTC and likely downward trends....

I say it means hoarding has really begun.

a WILD CONJECTURE has appeared! Tongue

pretty sure it was just traders shifting the position of their orders in response to the first significant price action in almost a week. i forgot how far you guys in this thread will extrapolate and exaggerate any innocent data...

I would NOT describe a $5 to $10 downward trickling movement as a "significant price action."

then you have something to learn about price movement. not only is a $15 movement in a 6-hour period the largest range we have seen in about a week, the volume associated with the movement is the largest we've seen in that same time frame. this makes it significant in magnitude if only in comparison to the watching-paint-dry-caliber price behavior this past week. it is also significant in that it may herald a steady increase in volatility from here on out after that painfully quiet consolidation.

Looks like you are turning out to be correct; however, at the time that I wrote, the movement was only in its budding stages. Also, I do NOT claim to be any expert, so I remain curious why you felt it necessary to engage in patronizing... Anyhow, thanks for the fairly detailed response...

Quote from: TERA on March 18, 2014, 04:00:56 AM

This is actually the worst order book (ratio) I have ever seen in Bitcoin. All of the gox orderbooks in apr-jul 2013 even at their worst looked better than this.

Are investors losing their passion or just keeping their money off the books.... b/c there could still be big investors planning to come into the bitcoin space, but NOT showing their cards at the moment... no?

Quote from: arepo on March 18, 2014, 04:35:34 AM

Quote from: MAbtc on March 18, 2014, 04:30:24 AM

Quote from: arepo on March 18, 2014, 04:16:16 AM

it is not a "SIGNIFICANT MOVE" as far as bitcoin price action is concerned, but it carries information in the short-term.

Exactly. Earlier today when I posted a chart illustrating the support breach this morning and lack of pressure to fuel a strong bounce, I was told I was over-analyzing. And I thought, do people around here wait for a sell-off to conclude that the price might go down? I'm trying to close or accumulate position before that occurs....

yeah it seems many traders around here don't understand the idea of keeping ahead of the market. chasing the market is more obvious, but obviously less profitable Tongue

it also doesn't require empirical methods of constructing a workable signalling theory like the one i outlined in my last post. but then again, many traders here don't even "believe in" TA at all Wink

Why does it even matter if some traders have different points of view than you. So What...? Not everyone here is a day trader, and sometimes BTC movements take place based on factors other than trend lines. Surely, if I am fairly confident that a certain movement is going to take place, then I will act based on that confidence. One of the problems with bitcoin; however, is that one or two whales can change the direction - and especially catch the less experienced "traders" off guard (to the extent that some of us are still engaging in trading, in spite of proclamations to the contrary).

Quote from: arepo on March 18, 2014, 05:02:50 AM

Quote from: seleme on March 18, 2014, 05:00:27 AM

That was nice dump. Shocked

caught me by complete surprise, i didn't think the first small move down to $620 was significant at all Tongue

Did you put your money where your mouth is?

Quote from: Peter R on March 18, 2014, 05:26:40 AM

Quote from: Adrian-x on March 18, 2014, 05:19:55 AM

To be honest the only thing that can collapse the price IMO are the week hands, (non believers) stolen Bitcoin and whales redistributing/ facilitating future wealth growth, and I think a lot of coins @ the new order of magnetude have already been flushed.

The big question for me is "what really happened to the Gox coins." I'm working on the hypothesis that the coins were stolen along time ago and have already been absorbed by the market. If this is true, I can't see us dipping very deep and in fact think this is quite bullish medium term. On the other hand, if a thief really has 750,000 BTC, I could imagine considerable selling pressure for some time.

The first part of your theme seems possible........... but likely NOT complete b/c in my thinking it would take considerable time for 750k btc to be absorbed completely into the market. The second alternative seems even less possible b/c it seems very unlikely (though possible) that the stealing would have ONLY been by one thief.

Quote from: rjp55 on March 18, 2014, 12:35:29 PM

It's obvious that the better posters that were here have flocked somewhere else. Hard on the eyes these days.

Yes.... with 12 posts, you speak with the authority of posting experience Roll Eyes

.

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 18, 2014, 01:51:35 PM

Looks like that 2k dip was a try to force panic sell but it ain't work ^^

We will see, as I stupidly bought at 685 I have to hodl through this.

We are at the same buy-in price point..... I am NOT too worried - even though I was expecting to be in the $750 to $850 price range about now-ish....

It is just a matter of time before we are back in the black.... anywhere between a day and 2 months... - hopefully, it will NOT take 2 months to get back in the black, though.... Huh

Quote from: mmitech on March 18, 2014, 12:36:17 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 18, 2014, 12:35:09 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on March 18, 2014, 12:24:52 PM

Quote from: tarmi on March 18, 2014, 12:18:38 PM

Quote from: gizmoh on March 18, 2014, 12:17:00 PM

Quote from: pheL on March 18, 2014, 12:10:38 PM

Quote from: gizmoh on March 18, 2014, 12:08:58 PM

Anyone able to load Bitfinex.com ?

Works for me.

Its loading now, but during the dumps it went kaput.

On another note, LTC is holding like a man!

ltc always holds, the dump always comes later.

usually yes, but then again, usually the ltc/btc being sideways or slightly down while btc crashes, but now ltc/btc is on their own uptrend, the situation is rare

It's becuase the LTC rally is event-based (btcchina, huobi)

oh, I can assure you that it is more than that, I bought my first Litecoins at $0.17 look how much they made me today

and I am not selling yet, $100 till the end of this year seems very possible

http://www.mmitech.info/?p=63

Absent further developments, $50 seems like a good LTC sell point.... within the next 4-6 months.... Now on the other hand, LTC will probably tag along with BTC, once BTC starts to skyrocket.. so you may be correct about the $100 by the end of the year being greatly possible... but that $100 plus would likely only come about b/c BTC is going over $1500 or so at the same time..so an investor would likely NOT be better off in LTC rather than BTC.. even though in the short run.. next 2-3 months, there may be spurts in which it is better to be in LTC.. I do NOT claim to be any kind of expert.. just going based on the fact that LTC does NOT really add much of anything to BTC.. .and there are a lot of LTC replacements.. but there are NOT really any feasible BTC replacements.. at least NOT at the moment.

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 18, 2014, 02:25:27 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 02:18:58 PM

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 18, 2014, 01:51:35 PM

Looks like that 2k dip was a try to force panic sell but it ain't work ^^

We will see, as I stupidly bought at 685 I have to hodl through this.

We are at the same buy-in price point..... I am NOT too worried - even though I was expecting to be in the $750 to $850 price range about now-ish....

It is just a matter of time before we are back in the black.... anywhere between a day and 2 months... - hopefully, it will NOT take 2 months to get back in the black, though.... Huh

i'm thinking about buying more soon

don't wanna miss a good flash crash, I also think this downward trend is very temporary

WE are considering this downward BTC price similarly, me thinks..... At this point, my next buy point would be at $590 or below. if the price gets there and stays there long enough for me to pull the trigger. In spite of some of this recent discussion about the lack of fiat on the seeable books, I continue to have my doubts about getting to those below $590 levels for any sustained length of time - even though i have been surprised before.

Quote from: dreamspark on March 18, 2014, 02:35:08 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 02:18:58 PM

It is just a matter of time before we are back in the black.... anywhere between a day and 2 months... - hopefully, it will NOT take 2 months to get back in the black, though.... Huh

What does that even mean...

Why do you ask me what it means, when you cite my previous post without its context. It seems that the context shows what the statement means...

So one more time, just in case you were NOT trolling me: If an investor has a BTC buy-in investment price at $685, then that investor is in the red when the current BTC price is below $685 and in the black when the current BTC price is above $685... The rest of the meaning of my statement is merely my speculating and/or hoping concerning when the price will return above $685... Hopefully, that explanation helps you to understand my earlier intended communication.

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 18, 2014, 02:46:42 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 02:37:34 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 18, 2014, 02:25:27 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 02:18:58 PM

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 18, 2014, 01:51:35 PM

Looks like that 2k dip was a try to force panic sell but it ain't work ^^

We will see, as I stupidly bought at 685 I have to hodl through this.

We are at the same buy-in price point..... I am NOT too worried - even though I was expecting to be in the $750 to $850 price range about now-ish....

It is just a matter of time before we are back in the black.... anywhere between a day and 2 months... - hopefully, it will NOT take 2 months to get back in the black, though.... Huh

i'm thinking about buying more soon

don't wanna miss a good flash crash, I also think this downward trend is very temporary

WE are considering this downward BTC price similarly, me thinks..... At this point, my next buy point would be at $590 or below. if the price gets there and stays there long enough for me to pull the trigger. In spite of some of this recent discussion about the lack of fiat on the seeable books, I continue to have my doubts about getting to those below $590 levels for any sustained length of time - even though i have been surprised before.

theres not a half bad chance that poeple will start selling because price is low, price inchies lower and lower, poeple get discouraged and sell at the bottom.

I did this a long time ago....

not about to make this mistake again Tongue

Learning from mistakes.... YES... .Hopefully we can all accomplish such, at some point.

I believe that it can be fairly tempting and easy to make BTC trading mistakes - b/c we begin to see a pattern of ups and downs in the BTC price and by the time we think we have the pattern figured out, a whale manipulates in one direction or another - that kind of manipulation can be totally outside of predictability (especially for non-sophisticated traders) b/c the whale or fairly small group is deciding in their own head(s) exactly when to push in one direction or another - and actually the push could go either way.. but they decide based on their ability to put up walls.

If I had NOT made a few of these kinds of attempted pattern recognition trading mistakes, my average BTC buy-in price would have been in the $650 range rather than its current $685 range.

The temptation remains, though, b/c it remains very attractive, if an investor could predict a 10 or 20% downtrend with certainty, then his average buy in price could be reduced by a similar percentage is he were to go balls to the walls into such a prediction.... Usually, I am too scared (or possibly too inexperienced in that kind of methodology) to be a balls to the walls kind of investor.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 18, 2014, 02:58:11 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 18, 2014, 02:53:31 PM

its not LTC that overstock accepts as payment people...

If I recall correctly, Overstock's CEO invested heavily in bitcoin, Was that from his pocket, or through the company?

I struggle to comprehend - why you want to stretch logic to attempt to see a zebra in a herd of horses.... and zebras are a rarity.

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 18, 2014, 03:00:52 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 18, 2014, 02:58:11 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 18, 2014, 02:53:31 PM

its not LTC that overstock accepts as payment people...

If I recall correctly, Overstock's CEO invested heavily in bitcoin, Was that from his pocket, or through the company?

where did you get that?

just buy a bitcoin Jorge...

He begins to build some credibility by contributing information in various respects, then all of a sudden comes out with these lame assertions... like conspiracy theory that take a very large stretch of credulity to fathom their even possibility. Accordingly, it seems that these kinds of stretches of credulity undermine the previously built Jorge brand.

Quote from: fonzie on March 18, 2014, 04:01:51 PM

Greetings from my latest journey to S-E-Asia.
A full Bitcoin sponsored trip(shorting profits Cheesy

)stuffed with a huge package of Acid bought with BTC. Cheesy

I just wanted to let you know that i´m still bullish about BTC after i talked to the local bulls over here,
altough it might take a few days until they will fully attack.

If you could please pump it to about 900$ that would be awesome

See you soon Cool

IS that you?

Also: That "bull" does NOT appear to have the proper bull equipment.

Quote from: barbs on March 18, 2014, 04:07:27 PM

Btw while btc is bleeding in the street - love these posts by people who sold off to bagholders flashing cash and mansions.

So much for the dream between you guys and karplese I don't know who to thank more ;-)

First: BTC is NOT bleeding in the streets... far from it.. BTC is thriving... if you look beyond the last three months... and the uptrend is likley to continue.

Second: Sounds as if you are spreading this FUD about ponzi scheme... as if the first investors are running off - as if that were some common theme. So what if some people are cashing out and so what if some people got in earlier than others... current investors have to consider the continued upside potential rather than being obsessed that some people may have made more money than they made...

Quote from: barbs on March 18, 2014, 04:25:49 PM

Sold!!!!! At 609, 500$ commission to bitstamp- holla

Good luck in your future endeavors outside of BTC.... b/c this train, ship, rocket, dinosaur, is leaving the station soon...

Quote from: gizmoh on March 18, 2014, 04:38:59 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on March 18, 2014, 02:35:08 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 02:18:58 PM

It is just a matter of time before we are back in the black.... anywhere between a day and 2 months... - hopefully, it will NOT take 2 months to get back in the black, though.... Huh

What does that even mean...

Crossing fingers hoping the fad can hype up again!

A little more than substance and fundamentals than mere "hoping"... but that is the general idea.... anticipation of a likely future result.. somewhere between 1 day(which seems pretty unlikely at the moment) to 2 month (which seems pretty likely and NOT likely to have to wait a whole 2 months) return to prices greater than $685.

Thereafter, likely, this year we are going to have another ATH... summer-ish is anticipated.... but may take a little longer...

Quote from: adsdas on March 18, 2014, 04:45:09 PM

What will happen to btc once ltc explodes?

Define explodes. LTC at $25? $40? $100? $1000? and when? day, week, month, 6 months, 6 years?

Personally, I doubt LTC will grow much beyond BTC... maybe we will get to .1BTC... but otherwise somewhat parallel to BTC... and probably losing value over time to other alts...

Quote from: mmitech on March 18, 2014, 05:00:02 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 04:57:41 PM

Quote from: adsdas on March 18, 2014, 04:45:09 PM

What will happen to btc once ltc explodes?

Define explodes. LTC at $25? $40? $100? $1000? and when? day, week, month, 6 months, 6 years?

Personally, I doubt LTC will grow much beyond BTC... maybe we will get to .1BTC... but otherwise somewhat parallel to BTC... and probably losing value over time to other alts...

I will speculate about LTC hitting an ATH of 0.07-0.09 BTC in 2-3 months

I appreciate when people (or bots - NOT that you are a bot) are fairly specific and committal about their predictions... That is definitely a step in the right direction. The next step is to explain how they arrive at that prediction... what are the various factors that cause you to predict... and how did you arrive at such specificity... Surely, no matter what the prediction (especially about the future... hehehe) there is going to be a certain margin of error that would be anticipated for it to be reasonably relied upon.

Quote from: solarflare on March 18, 2014, 05:02:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 04:57:41 PM

Quote from: adsdas on March 18, 2014, 04:45:09 PM

What will happen to btc once ltc explodes?

Define explodes. LTC at $25? $40? $100? $1000? and when? day, week, month, 6 months, 6 years?

Personally, I doubt LTC will grow much beyond BTC... maybe we will get to .1BTC... but otherwise somewhat parallel to BTC... and probably losing value over time to other alts...

If lots of idiots like me bought at the top of the last ATH, it probably won't go much higher than that.
I'm saying that because I will be selling as soon as I can make a profit and believe I won't be the only one to do so.
That's of course my (very) short term position. I'll be ready to buy back in the next dip.

Therefore for an additional price rise, the LTC market is going to need more "idiots." hehehe... surely, that is possible... and especially possible b/c there continues to be quite a bit of hype in the crypto currency space that more and more people are just learning about.. especially heard about this since November 2013... and then when the crypto prices begin to grow again, everyone will want IN.

Quote from: seleme on March 18, 2014, 05:18:10 PM

Quote from: gotmilk_ on March 18, 2014, 05:14:11 PM

Quote from: seleme on March 18, 2014, 05:02:44 PM

Quote from: mmitech on March 18, 2014, 05:00:02 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 04:57:41 PM

Quote from: adsdas on March 18, 2014, 04:45:09 PM

What will happen to btc once ltc explodes?

Define explodes. LTC at $25? $40? $100? $1000? and when? day, week, month, 6 months, 6 years?

Personally, I doubt LTC will grow much beyond BTC... maybe we will get to .1BTC... but otherwise somewhat parallel to BTC... and probably losing value over time to other alts...

I will speculate about LTC hitting an ATH of 0.07-0.09 BTC in 2-3 months

No chance.

It seems that even the most bullish of LTC advocates are NOT really buying the silver to gold analogy anymore.. and in that regard, LTC would be .25 BTC.... And, it seems that the reason why NO one is that bullish on LTC is b/c alt cryptos are likely competing a lot more with LTC rather than with BTC....

I am of the opinion that a few of the alt cryptos are subliminally competing with BTC... but the competition is ssssssssoooooo subliminal that such competition is really difficult to put a finger on it exactly.. b/c NONE of the other alts have really much of a network or as much of a liquidity ability that BTC has (and NOT that BTC's liquidity is anything to write home to mom about).

More like 0.05-0.06... My sell target is 0.05 Grin

There will be alot of asking about ltc, when huobi fully starts with it...

Don't think so, 0.035-0.04 max. Huobi adding it doesn't really mean a lot, BTC-e had huge volume on last big LTC pump, Huobi was/is not needed there when there is enough money around. And there is enough money around only when Bitcoin is bubbling and new players are entering the crypto world.

It's just another news driven pump we've seen zillion times in bitcoin, litecoin and many other altcoins.

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 18, 2014, 05:20:27 PM

1) buy bitcoin today
2) sell it to someone that wants to speculate on the lastest shitcoin of 2015
3) profit!!!

OH my gosh.. Adam... Are you becoming less bullish? YOU are suggesting that we are going to want to sell BTC in 2015, and NOT hoard BTC into eternity in order to maximize the BTC climactical effect?

Quote from: Richy_T on March 18, 2014, 05:24:50 PM

So as I mentioned, I'm thinking of dropping a volatility index in with ChartBuddy's posts. It's fairly simple so far, it is the base 10 log off the percentage of high-low against closing price ( log(100*(high-low)/price ). This would only be once per day at 3pm (when the NY market closes). Here is a sample with a few arbitrary currencies (price, high, low, index). Prices are from Bitstamp. Thoughts?

Code:

GBPUSD 1.6573 1.6648 1.6547 -0.215079756574918
EURUSD 1.3915 1.3943 1.3880 -0.344142661216467
JPYUSD 0.0099 0.0099 0.0098 0.00436480540245543
UAHUSD 0.1024 0.1041 0.1024 0.22014896473846
BTCUSD 612.72 612.72 591.13 0.546990585818375

Gotta put the ruble in there, no? Especially with all the world events... and also LTC... ... and Doge (just kidding)...

Quote from: PoolMinor on March 18, 2014, 05:55:30 PM

<Tinfoil hat on>

Maybe the large buys/trades for LTC are actually a "laundering" of BTC?

I LIKE that theory.... a good way to camouflage stolen BTC woudl be to dilute them into various investment vehicles.

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 18, 2014, 06:27:08 PM

Quote from: lyth0s on March 18, 2014, 06:00:45 AM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 18, 2014, 05:55:00 AM

Quote from: lyth0s on March 18, 2014, 05:19:05 AM

Yeah following my predicted correction to $550-590 here: http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

My prediction thread here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518871

Odd that we don't see you here all the times you guess wrong...

When did I guess wrong? That is my first prediction thread ever as far as I know...It's also the first time I've published my opinion online (GeekCipher).

Perhaps my post wasn't exactly about price prognostication? I think what you're up to is generally obvious but I will reserve a more scathing post, i.e., give you rope. You could just be a burgeoning entrepreneur hoping to support his League Of Legends pastime, right?

KS: I like the way you nail the sentiment in your line of thought b/c the reality of the matter is that there is NO real good reason for anyone to come to this thread (or any other BTC thread) and to brag about some kind of superficial "I told you so" prediction - whether the guy is correct or NOT.

IN this regard, there are BTC and alt coin predictions all over the place, and some of them are going to be spot on, others are going to be in the ballpark and others are going to be way the fuck out in never, never land. Whatever, the outcome of a prediction, NONE of us really appreciate any I told you so tone, unless such tone is woven into some kind of attempt at more meaningful discussion.

Quote from: Richy_T on March 18, 2014, 06:28:28 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on March 18, 2014, 02:40:36 PM

Yeah I skimmed over and read it wrong.
I wouldnt worry about having your average at $685 we'll be back there before two months, its the people waiting to break even on their $1200 coins that may have to wait a while.

I's imaging most that actually have $1200 coins are mostly just happy that they are out of Gox.

I agree with you.

Yet, another point about having $1,200 coins is NOT any problem with the person but a problem with their investment strategy.

Several times, I have mentioned that I started investing in BTC at right around $1200, but certainly, I recognized the extreme bull run at that particular moment... and who the fuck knew whether it would stop, at that time. Anyhow, I was scared to go in too heavily, so even though at that moment, I had about $20,000 to invest into BTC. I started out by only investing $1,500, and then continuing my investment thereafter with a form of dollar cost averaging.

Anyhow, my point is that at the $1,200 price point, the market did NOT seem to suggest that balls to the wall investment strategy would have been good at $1,200... but still, even then, there were enough BTC fundamentals that BTC could have gone to $2,000 or even $5,000 and rested there for a while......

I guess part of my point is that an investor can get really rich or poor from an ALL IN approach... but, surely I remain of the thinking that I am too chicken shit for that... unless, I have some kind of insider information... ...

Quote from: GameStarter on March 18, 2014, 06:29:28 PM

When China started to buy BTC the price have risen hard so what should we expect for LTC?

Litecoin over 50$ soon.

Define, soon. week? two weeks? month? and will it parallel BTC or break from BTC.. .that makes a difference, no?

I am thinking that if LTC goes to $50 within the next month or two and breaks somewhat with BTC to anywhere in the .07 to .1 territory, then I will sell my LTC holdings at that point... unless there is some breaking news that changes the fundamentals of LTC as compared with BTC in some kind of way.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 06:56:28 PM

Quote from: threecats on March 18, 2014, 09:49:20 AM

LTC is closer to thread than the twenty pages of philisophical ranting about the true nature of man ...

The true nature of man is irrelevant. If man is basically good, then no monopoly government is necessary. If Man is basically evil, then a monopoly government is too dangerous, because politicians, bureaucrats and cops are men too.

Even though the nature of man was somewhat woven into parts of our more than 50 scattered pages of discussion of such topics, nature of man was NOT really the essence of the side track... if we should call it a side track.... I think that we were mostly focused around the extent to which government is necessary in a future society which hinged upon questions regarding whether government served any meaningful purpose that would justify receiving taxes whether voluntarily or by force. Surely, some posters were weaving in other topics as well and even deviating from the deviation... and possibly even I was guilty of such..... especially when from time to time my own human nature was put into question... ...

.......... It's all good, no?

Quote from: gotmilk_ on March 18, 2014, 07:17:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 07:00:29 PM

Quote from: GameStarter on March 18, 2014, 06:29:28 PM

When China started to buy BTC the price have risen hard so what should we expect for LTC?

Litecoin over 50$ soon.

Define, soon. week? two weeks? month? and will it parallel BTC or break from BTC.. .that makes a difference, no?

I am thinking that if LTC goes to $50 within the next month or two and breaks somewhat with BTC to anywhere in the .07 to .1 territory, then I will sell my LTC holdings at that point... unless there is some breaking news that changes the fundamentals of LTC as compared with BTC in some kind of way.

Are you blind?? It's written on their page... they will add it on 19.3.2014 at 2pm (chinies time) aka tomorow.

I will admit that I do NOT always see too clearly; however, it is my sense that the question in front of us within this thread of the conversation does NOT concern when LTC is put into any exchange (in china or wherever that may be) - even though that factor seems to be driving the current price uptick.

From my reading, which could possibly be wrong, the question in front of us, in this line of the thread, was concerning when LTC would go over $50, if at all. Hope that helps to put us generally on the same braille.

Quote from: Krabby on March 18, 2014, 08:02:19 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 18, 2014, 07:58:54 PM

its official LTC is bubbling up!

Do you have the pin?

A funny thing that is likely to develop will be that LTC will drive sufficient excitement in which BTC and various other cryptos will follow the excitement.... I am somewhat doubtful that we would get a significant rally in LTC without getting some collateral "damage" meaning upward impact upon BTC.

Quote from: TakeTheSkyRoad on March 18, 2014, 08:16:33 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 18, 2014, 08:08:12 PM

Quote from: TakeTheSkyRoad on March 18, 2014, 08:06:29 PM

Quote from: Undone on March 18, 2014, 08:02:52 PM

Quote from: TakeTheSkyRoad on March 18, 2014, 07:58:00 PM

Just hit $20 and the $850,000 wall has moved up to match.... wow

It was textbook...and now it's gone.

True but it's the most excitement there's been round here in weeks lol

It helps that I'm holding LTC and personally I'm waiting to see how things stand tomorrow.
Feels like today is a warm up

sell the news tomorrow?

Well since Huobi kick in with LTC trading tomorrow my reasoning is that there is the promise higher prices than $20
If not then I'm hoping/gambling that the 18$ and above should hold at least but I bought at $16.2 so looking safe.

Really I want to trade back to BTC so I'm hoping BTC stays put at $620 ish Cheesy

That's unlikely though lol

I think the key component of your statement is "that's unlikely though." All these cryptos seem to be too connected and foggy in the recent months.... accordingly, they do NOT really seem to be self-contained units... especially if one of the bigger ones gets public attention of some sort... and a somewhat ironic thing about this particular situation seems to be that LTC has a potential here, maybe only in the very short term of a few weeks, to drive upward various crypto prices.... I do NOT really buy zero sum game arguments, even though there may be some of that occurring, too (between some coins).

Quote from: TakeTheSkyRoad on March 18, 2014, 08:26:42 PM

Quote from: mmitech on March 18, 2014, 08:21:57 PM

you shouldn't get emotionally attached to anything even Bitcoin, when ever you see a chance you jump in, this is why you jumped into bitcoin the first place, fanatics are the worst type....

Haha very true, don't anyone misunderstand my earlier post (edit : as gloating).
I might have got lucky catching this LTC train but those LTC were picked up with BTC bought back in Nov/Dec in the $800-$900 range.

I bought BTC high and have been trying to increase holdings ever since.
This will just help me slowly out of the red lol

HOW far into the red are you? Truly, given all the low buy opportunities over the last three months, you must be below $800 average buy-in BTC price, no?

Quote from: Richy_T on March 18, 2014, 08:40:09 PM

Today's volatility data. ChartBuddy didn't insert it, the lazy arse.

BTCUSD	617.31	617.31	591.13	0.627466329916925
GBPUSD	1.6647	1.6655	1.6605	-0.522365975197819
EURUSD	1.3932	1.3943	1.3880	-0.344672916332603
JPYUSD	0.0099	0.0099	0.0098	0.00436480540245543
UAHUSD	0.1024	0.1041	0.1024	0.22014896473846

I don't mean to get too personal with you, Richy_T, but I was wondering whether you and Chartbuddy have a special relationship?

For example, will chartbuddy take your side in a political discussion? or does chartbuddy do the opposite? B/c if chartbuddy does the opposite, then you may want to try some reverse psychology with him/her?

Quote from: TakeTheSkyRoad on March 18, 2014, 09:04:13 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 08:56:36 PM

Quote from: TakeTheSkyRoad on March 18, 2014, 08:26:42 PM

Quote from: mmitech on March 18, 2014, 08:21:57 PM

you shouldn't get emotionally attached to anything even Bitcoin, when ever you see a chance you jump in, this is why you jumped into bitcoin the first place, fanatics are the worst type....

Haha very true, don't anyone misunderstand my earlier post (edit : as gloating).
I might have got lucky catching this LTC train but those LTC were picked up with BTC bought back in Nov/Dec in the $800-$900 range.

I bought BTC high and have been trying to increase holdings ever since.
This will just help me slowly out of the red lol

HOW far into the red are you? Truly, given all the low buy opportunities over the last three months, you must be below $800 average buy-in BTC price, no?

Well I bought first coins back in June but that was just a tester.

My big buy in started late November and I'd spent all I had budgeted by the first week in January.
Not the best timing in retrospect but there's no crystal ball for this and I'm in for the long term ride with a plan to take stock after 12/18 months.

However if I can lower my average cost in the mean time then that's all good (but not without risk).
Ideally I'd like to bring my buy in down to more like $600

Yes, I can relate to some degree.

I have a fairly accurate Excel spreadsheet that allows me to keep track of various particulars regarding my BTC investment actions.

And, I have employed a couple of methods to attempt to bring down my average BTC buy-in price, which I am sure are similar to what you have attempted.. maybe with differing budget, timing (or luck).

One tactic has been to attempt to buy more BTC at a lower price (if we can figure that out), and then the other tactic is to trade... sell and then buy again lower (if we can figure that out). I got burned a few times trying the trade method.. so I feel a bit more comfortable with the keep buying method.

In the end, we each buy within our budget, risk tolerance and prediction parameters and attempt to budget accordingly without panicking.

Whether rosie color glasses or NOT, I was thinking 1-2 years in BTC, too... unless there is some dramatic news that changes the fundamentals...Accordingly, in the end, within the coming months, BTC does seem to be have pretty good fundamentals and upside potential to get us into the black and to cause us to stay in the black... with a little cushion....

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 09:27:40 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 07:14:59 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 06:56:28 PM

Quote from: threecats on March 18, 2014, 09:49:20 AM

LTC is closer to thread than the twenty pages of philisophical ranting about the true nature of man ...

The true nature of man is irrelevant. If man is basically good, then no monopoly government is necessary. If Man is basically evil, then a monopoly government is too dangerous, because politicians, bureaucrats and cops are men too.

Even though the nature of man was somewhat woven into parts of our more than 50 scattered pages of discussion of such topics, nature of man was NOT really the essence of the side track... if we should call it a side track.... I think that we were mostly focused around the extent to which government is necessary in a future society which hinged upon questions regarding whether government served any meaningful purpose that would justify receiving taxes whether voluntarily or by force. Surely, some posters were weaving in other topics as well and even deviating from the deviation... and possibly even I was guilty of such..... especially when from time to time my own human nature was put into question... ...

.......... It's all good, no?

We both agree that governance is necessary. It's your conflation of governance with monopoly government that is the sticking point.

Whether I am conflating or NOT, I am trying to use the current world as a starting point, rather than projecting some pie in the sky vision that is built upon a house of cards of conjectures about some speculative vision about "how things could be, if....". One thing you seem to be arguing the same points over and over, including voluntary nature of participation in society - but using different creative terms to say the same thing about your not wanting to be a subject of rules unless you completely agree with them on some ultimately unattainable level of specific consent.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 09:27:40 PM

Just using the phrase "the extent to which (monopoly) government is necessary" indicates that you don't quite understand my position, even enough to disagree with it.

Yes, you are making such brilliant points that average individuals do NOT understand the profound nature of your abstractions. Also, maybe you are failing to understand that it may NOT even matter whether or NOT you are correct b/c part of the resolution to be a part of a community is to compromise and to go along with the wishes of the community rather than imposing some superior vision upon the community.. even if you were to be correct. Personally, I am NOT as attached to outcomes, so long as the public is getting what it wants, and ultimately will likely result in the entering into various compromises that will NOT be satisfactory to every single individual. Sometimes, that means that we cannot have our cake and eat it too.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 09:27:40 PM

Competing market participants can provide all the services a monopoly can provide and do so for less costs and no coercion. The one thing they can't do is coerce their customers into paying for things they may not want or need. I argue this makes competitive distributed governance a better choice.

Yes, if you are trying to privatize all or a majority of public goods, then it becomes very likely that you are going to fail to allow for the public good to serve the public. As I mentioned before, probably you have been watching too much fox news... which is neither news nor informative... especially getting so passionate about wanting to get your way and wanting to place public goods into market competition. You are correct that some times there are going to be ways to make matters more efficient, but competitive free market forces are NOT necessarily the solution to distributing various public goods and services.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 09:27:40 PM

You argue this makes it a worse one.

I argue that you are trying to oversimplify the various levels of government and the various public goods and services that governments need to provide. Your supposed hypothetical system is NOT going to end up covering various needs and goods b/c it will result in a bunch of freeloaders, like you seem to be, who do NOT want to pay, unless they agree with what they are paying.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 09:27:40 PM

As to your nature, I assume that you are arguing in good faith. I wouldn't waste my time otherwise.

Of course, I am presenting my information in good faith, and you seem inclined to want to waste time b/c you want to delve back into the substance of arguing. Seems that you recharged yourself over the past few days b/c you are so intent on being correct and winning. Yet, when we are talking about community values, none of us will get to completely call the shots b/c we have to be able to work together to figure out what is best for the community and hopefully, figure out which representatives are going to best serve in the public interest (rather than their personal / private interests).

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 09:27:40 PM

What concerns me is that you are advocating using threat of force against me for my own good. This is as ludicrous as if I argued that I should rape your sister for her own good. It doesn't matter how good of a mating prospect I am or what her other options are. It's not my decision to make.

You seem to come up with these perversions through a sense of maniacal focus about yourself. IN the end the social contract is one of consent, even though you keep saying that you feel forced. The community is NOT imposed on you, but a state of mind about whether you belong to the community comes from you, not from other imposing their will upon you. I realize that may be too abstract for you to comprehend b/c you keep coming back to the same monotonous assertion that you are being forced. Poor thing. Cry

Maybe the solution is that you have to figure how to live with yourself, and several of you libertarian wanna-be s have been citing Alan Watts... which is fine and dandy.. b/c there is a certain amount of self empowerment that is projected through his teachings.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 09:27:40 PM

Similarly, it doesn't matter if monopoly governments made us all infinitely richer, safer or happier. If they don't make us more free, they are not worth having.

Sure there are mixed views about the various goals of government, and freedom is one of those goals... that is weighed by the community.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 09:27:40 PM

A government that doesn't allow competition for governance must believe that it couldn't compete in a free market. They may have good reason to believe that.
If U.S. dollars need legal tender laws to ensure their utility as a store of value and medium of exchange, I think this indicates a weakness, not a strength.

Yes, you seem to be repeating an idea that you already stated... that somehow various public goods need to compete, and it seems you are going to come to bad and wrong conclusions if you attempt to put public goods and services into the free market.

In sum, I thought that we had agreed to disagree on some of these questions, and it seems that you want to get into some intricate battle over foundational matters in which we have differing assumptions.... and didn't we already cover these various matters ad nauseum?

Quote from: solarflare on March 18, 2014, 09:40:36 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 09:20:09 PM

Yes, I can relate to some degree.

I have a fairly accurate Excel spreadsheet that allows me to keep track of various particulars regarding my BTC investment actions.

And, I have employed a couple of methods to attempt to bring down my average BTC buy-in price, which I am sure are similar to what you have attempted.. maybe with differing budget, timing (or luck).

One tactic has been to attempt to buy more BTC at a lower price (if we can figure that out), and then the other tactic is to trade... sell and then buy again lower (if we can figure that out). I got burned a few times trying the trade method.. so I feel a bit more comfortable with the keep buying method.

Same feeling here, especially since you can end up with a ROI higher than the ATH if you are a bad trader! (and I'm one).
My ROI is already much higher than I am comfortable with... And so I learned to buy and hold.
I applied this strategy to my friends and family BTCs account (which I kindly manage) and they all have sub $600 averages (suckers!).

Yeah... if you are managing someone else's stash, then there is more pressures to be careful regarding risks and to go with what, on average, is going to yield the better results.

Quote from: 686f646c on March 14, 2014, 03:01:18 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 02:19:24 AM

Quote from: 686f646c on March 14, 2014, 01:22:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2014, 01:15:59 AM

Quote from: 686f646c on March 14, 2014, 01:01:10 AM

the only flash crash thats going to happen from this point on is when btc-e gets shut down probably this year taking all alts with it

What are your points of contention regarding the problematic nature of BTC e, if any? Are they NOT transparent enough? Are they engaged in fractional banking? What's going on?

no aml/kyc, they don't even ask for name when you sign up, thats where all the stolen btc ends up

I know that I have heard some anecdotal stories of people losing their BTC... on BTC e, also. However, I question whether those are just made up or exaggerated stories. I remember one guy had provided me a link to a story.. but in my view, the story did NOT pan out b/c the person was merely sending out negative stories before there was even an issue of a problem. Surely, it is possible, and maybe I should withdraw some of my BTC from there.. I have about 15 BTC (about 40% of my holdings) on BTCe.

I'm not trying to spread FUD, i will just state a few facts and you can decide for yourself if storing your btc on that exchange is the best idea.
   -No AML/KYC even though they accept US customers same as Liberty Reserve
   -Unknown owners same as Liberty Reserve
   -they still issue USD btc-e codes when all other exchanges stopped a year ago
   -Where criminals/hackers launder stolen btc

the real question is not IF it's going to get shutdown, it's WHEN will it be.

O.k. I decided to take some advice from 686f646c (as cautioned above), and I moved 9 BTC from BTC e to a Blockchain.info wallet. It took me nearly a week to accomplish this BTC movement b/c there were technical SNAFUs with my e-mail confirmations to BTC e. I thought that I had confirmed with BTC e via e-mail, and then after three days, my BTC were still in the transfer section of the BTC e fund. Thereafter, I submitted a ticket and got some weird-ass quasi non-responsive e-mails from BTC e support, which made me suspect that the BTC e support English skills are NOT too good.

I then presented my issue in the BTC e troll box, and a couple responders reminded me to make sure that I adequately went through the e-mail confirmation process, which assisted me to identify the problem was that I had NOT properly confirmed.

Anyhow, now I am fixed, and I have removed 9 BTC from BTC e, and put those 9 BTC into a blockchain wallet.... which also caused me concern, yesterday, when blockchain.info was down for quite a long time (more than 10 hours?)

Quote from: solarflare on March 19, 2014, 12:25:55 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 19, 2014, 12:14:38 AM

O.k. I decided to take some advice from 686f646c (as cautioned above), and I moved 9 BTC from BTC e to a Blockchain.info wallet. It took me nearly a week to accomplish this BTC movement b/c there were technical SNAFUs with my e-mail confirmations to BTC e. I thought that I had confirmed with BTC e via e-mail, and then after three days, my BTC were still in the transfer section of the BTC e fund. Thereafter, I submitted a ticket and got some weird-ass quasi non-responsive e-mails from BTC e support, which made me suspect that the BTC e support English skills are NOT too good.

I then presented my issue in the BTC e troll box, and a couple responders reminded me to make sure that I adequately went through the e-mail confirmation process, which assisted me to identify the problem was that I had NOT properly confirmed.

Anyhow, now I am fixed, and I have removed 9 BTC from BTC e, and put those 9 BTC into a blockchain wallet.... which also caused me concern, yesterday, when blockchain.info was down for quite a long time (more than 10 hours?)

Don't forget to offline some.

I have NOT gotten that far in my bitcoin storage experiment, yet.

So, currently, I have coins distributed in Localbitcoins, BTC e, Coinbase and Blockchain. I am working on traveling, so I remain a little bit worried about the practicality and utility of off-line storage. But, I realize that, at some point, I will likely need to practice with off line storage.

Surely, I am looking forward to someday solutions for these kinds of matters, including somehow making it easier to safekeep all my BTC in case anything were to happen to me, then I would be able to pass BTC to my intended heirs rather than donating them to the bitcoin network.

Quote from: surfer43 on March 19, 2014, 02:05:03 AM

Quote from: seleme on March 19, 2014, 01:59:09 AM

wtf is going on, haha

looks like someone sold while he wanted to buy, then rebought Cheesy

+1
The whales are the stupidest among us...

A little excitement on the tail of an LTC boom.

ATM: I wouldn't know whether to predict up or down... but I am buying at $590 and selling at $999 (well maybe I wont sell b/c .... I'm too afraid to sell).

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 02:11:24 AM

Slavery had been part of every civilization for thousands of years until it wasn't any more. Which one of us is really more guilty of pie in the sky thinking?

Thanks for asking. You are! Grin

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 02:11:24 AM

INDIVIDUAL consent is the only consent that means anything. If we voted to kill all the Jews or some other minority and take their stuff, it would not be legitimate merely because the decision was popular. It's no more legitimate if that minority is the rich, provided they came by their wealth honestly.

I am talking about normal democracy an ordinary plain vanila decision making.. No need for extreme examples.. to try to make some Unpoint

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 02:11:24 AM

Quote

Yes, if you are trying to privatize all or a majority of public goods, then it becomes very likely that you are going to fail to allow for the public good to serve the public.

I don't know about that. If I'm on a road trip, I'd rather take a crap at a truck stop than a rest area. They're cleaner, just as free, and I'm less likely to get assaulted.

I don't see a problem having various public facilities..... such as rest stops and parks.. even if they are NOT used very much or just a nature or open space reserve... regarding cleanliness, I am sure that will vary.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 02:11:24 AM

LOL. Because freeloading is not a problem now, is it? I'm not oversimplifying. I'm just starting with the simple, because you can't even seem to get that right.

Freeloading only becomes a problem when you make contribution voluntary.. however, there can be potential ways to deal with the freeloading problem without having to resort to begging guys like you to contribute.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 02:11:24 AM

Um, there is only one of us that is even trying to call the shots and it isn't me. I am arguing that we can't know what is best for the community and so we should err on the side of freedom rather than control. Because I do understand society is complex, I know that the unintended consequences of mandates and bans can often be worse than the problems they were put in place to address.

I am glad that you recognize society is complex. I have already addressed your other points over and over..

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 02:11:24 AM

The social contract? You're joking, right? When did I agree to this contract? Is this an "opt in" contract or an "opt out" contract? What are the other parties obligations, and what are the consequences if they don't meet those obligations? Did I authorize someone else to negotiate this contract on my behalf?
http://jim.com/treason.htm

I'm NOT joking, and I do NOT claim to be any expert... but I believe it works something like this.. you are in automatically, unless and until you opt out. You are born into whatever society and community that you partake and you, hopefully, take on some of the societal values along the way.. unless you come out perverted from watching too much Fox news... and getting perverted ideas into your head about how you are being coerced.. and you need your freedom bullshit. There is freedom within the social contract, from my understanding. The obligations and responsibilities vary, and someone else negotiates for you until you grow up enough to understand... which I by now, you should already understand. The consequences could be pretty grave including exile or death if you break certain social rules. I should NOT have to explain these kinds of social contract principles to you. If you want to change the social contract, then I suppose you can campaign.. which you seem to be attempting through this thread, but I am NOT the one to persuade... b/c I do NOT completely understand your situation but certainly it seems to me that you have adaptation issues.... b/c you seem unwilling or unable to accept and understand certain basic social contract principles...

Maybe you need to go to re-education so you can get in touch with the norms of your community? Or practice some zen, so you are NOT getting so worked up about it. there is only so much that you can change in any given society in any one setting, so acceptance should also be built into your psych... at least to some degree.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 02:11:24 AM

The community is a group of individuals. If the government's legitimacy stems from the consent of the governed, then to the extent individuals do not consent, it is illegitimate. You claim to care about the poor and needy. I suggest before we debate the relative merits of stealing FOR them, perhaps we should agree to stop stealing FROM them. We are members of communities and societies, and that does carry obligations, among them, the obligation no to steal from our fellow community and society members.

I don't disagree with this idea that there has been a redistribution of wealth from the poor to the rich... so I agree that taking money from the poor is a problem. If the rich paid more of their fair share of taxes, then likely the poor would NOT need to be taxed so much.. if at all.... there is some marit to the argument, though that everyone should contribute; however a problem that we have is that the burden has been distributed too regressively, and we need higher levels of taxation to the rich.. like the upper 1% of so should NOT be getting tax subsidies ..... well.... I have already covered this several times., it seems.

Quote from: surfer43 on March 19, 2014, 02:47:16 AM

Quote

INDIVIDUAL consent is the only consent that means anything. If we voted to kill all the Jews or some other minority and take their stuff, it would not be legitimate merely because the decision was popular. It's no more legitimate if that minority is the rich, provided they came by their wealth honestly.

hmm we don't want mob rule so... we will think of a better solution!

Agenda:
1. have people elect politicians and give all sovereignty to them.
2. have elected politicians hold elections according to how they like.
3. make voting power disproportional according to how elected politicians want.
4. have elected politicians control everything.

Perfect, we have our republic! We will call it representative democracy, or for short (however incorrect) democracy.

Now see, this is the only good way because the other way might have a possibility of infringing on minority rights. Shocked

We could become like Germany and kill off all of the Jews if we had mob rule. Note: The Nazi party came into power under a representative democracy, and then banned opponents (minority) with their power. They then killed all Jews (minority) they could. This however will be ignored for the sake of argument. See if a small group of elites controls everything, and public will is blurred, then clearly it would be impossible for minority rights to be infringed upon.

Quote

It's no more legitimate if that minority is the rich, provided they came by their wealth honestly.

read: minority of minority

Finally the reference to hitler we have been awaiting... in this series of side trackings... Grin

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 02:53:39 AM

The solution to deciding who gets to hold the gun is to get rid of the gun. Concentrated power is a problem, no matter who wields it.

Yes... MAYBE we are beginning to get this point that you keep repeating over and over and over... yes... we know that this is what you say that you believe.. so what is the point of continuing to repeat it over and over and over?

Do you believe that if you continue to repeat this narrow point as if it were some widely held maxim that shall not be violated, then people will really start to believe such a point? Probably you don't even believe it, when push comes to shove.....

Personally, as I have likely stated several times, I do NOT disagree with the principle of voluntariness and striving towards such, but we do NOT just arrive at such a voluntariness out of the blue without transitioning from power dynamics that exist in the world... B/c I recognize that power dynamics exist does NOT mean that I want to perpetuate them in their current form(s).

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 02:53:39 AM

The solution is to decentralize and distribute. It works for Bitcoin. It can work for governance.

The world is NOT so simple as to apply the same principle throughout... in one blanket swoop. I admit that Bitcoin can assist in solving lots of world problems - even likely in the directions that you are suggesting.. but NOT every single societal problem is gonna magically be resolved in one fell swoop.... at least NOT in the short term./.. NONETHELESS we may have some agreement that striving towards consensus and distributive networks is a good thing, and I will leave open the long-term possibilities that may be achievable through reforms that may become possible through bitcoin.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 03:30:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 19, 2014, 02:49:02 AM

I'm NOT joking, and I do NOT claim to be any expert... but I believe it works something like this.. you are in automatically, unless and until you opt out. You are born into whatever society and community that you partake and you, hopefully, take on some of the societal values along the way.. unless you come out perverted from watching too much Fox news... and getting perverted ideas into your head about how you are being coerced.. and you need your freedom bullshit. There is freedom within the social contract, from my understanding. The obligations and responsibilities vary, and someone else negotiates for you until you grow up enough to understand... which I by now, you should already understand. The consequences could be pretty grave including exile or death if you break certain social rules. I should NOT have to explain these kinds of social contract principles to you. If you want to change the social contract, then I suppose you can campaign.. which you seem to be attempting through this thread, but I am NOT the one to persuade... b/c I do NOT completely understand your situation but certainly it seems to me that you have adaptation issues.... b/c you seem unwilling or unable to accept and understand certain basic social contract principles...

Maybe you need to go to re-education so you can get in touch with the norms of your community? Or practice some zen, so you are NOT getting so worked up about it. there is only so much that you can change in any given society in any one setting, so acceptance should also be built into your psych... at least to some degree.

This is not how contracts work. You can't negotiate a contract on behalf of someone who isn't born yet and make it be binding on them. Moreover, most everyone who does consent to the U.S. Constitution was indoctrinated in government schools for twelve years or more. Contracts are not valid when one party is pressured, brainwashed, coerced or lied to. And contracts are null and void when one party breaches them. The U.S. Government has violated the constitution so many times that it doesn't even pretend to follow for example the enumerated powers provision of the Tenth Amendment. Not only that, but the government claims to be the sole interpreter and enforcer of the very document that is supposed to limit it's power.

This is not how contracts work. This is how the mafia works.

You cant stop the temptation of copntinuing to open up new quagmires.

Since when am I embracing the various specific policies of the US government...? Surely there are policies to defend and Surely there are grievances and governmental missteps. And sometimes, the government is NOT acting within the will of the people.. in various regards.. and sometimes there is a balancing of powers between local and national governments, including the 10th amendment, as you suggested.

I question why you want to continue to go into discussing all of these areas... and describe multiple abuses of the government.. Yes, I agre, there are lots of government abuses.... o.k.. ... so what does that mean, exactly?

Let's talk about bitcoin.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 03:50:35 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 19, 2014, 02:49:02 AM

Maybe you need to go to re-education so you can get in touch with the norms of your community?

Are you seriously suggesting sending me to a re-education camp? Are you paying attention to what you are typing?

Yes, there is a context in which I made the re-education statement.

First of all, you seem to have some difficulties understanding basic principles and that is we grow up as a product of culture and communities, and some communities are stronger than others. If for some reason, instead of watching bugs bunny, you grew up watching fox news, then you may need to be educated into social norms... b/c they taught you badly.

Second, I am paying attention to what I am typing, and their has been a certain level of frustration in that you have this tendency to continue to want to engage in a conversation in which we have repeated ourselves numerous times. Can we just agree to disagree and move on, rather than your wanting to continue... ... So I my be expressing some frustration in continuing what seems to be a repetitive conversation

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 03:50:35 AM

The norms of my community are 1) don't hurt people 2)don't mess with their stuff and 3) keep your promises. These are the norms of your community too. Eliminating the exceptions to these norms would go a long way towards unifying the community and resolving social problems.

I doubt that all of societies issues can be resolved through these principles, yet the extent to which any or all of the three principles would apply would depend on the scenario.. whether it is policing, safety, park use, disabilities, health care, flying car traffic, water service or any other potential public good in question.

Quote from: rpietila on March 19, 2014, 08:40:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 19, 2014, 08:34:23 AM

First of all, you seem to have some difficulties understanding basic principles and that is we grow up as a product of culture and communities, and some communities are stronger than others. If for some reason, instead of watching bugs bunny, you grew up watching fox news, then you may need to be educated into social norms... b/c they taught you badly.

Some jokes are just not funny.

That is NOT a joke.. its an assertion that relying on bad information sources is going to be problematic for socializing people to accept varying viewpoints.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 09:23:47 AM

You are advocating coercion. It may be common, widely accepted, perceived as necessary for the greater good, called something else, etc- but it's still coercion. Why can't we agree to disagree about raping your sister and move on? Consent is the central issue. I'm not going to agree to disagree about using/threatening violence to violate people's consent.

I am NOT advocating anything besides beginning from reality and working from there. I have NO problem with pushing for voluntary compliance to the extent that it can be achieved. NONETHELESS, I cannot envision how we can move from the world we are in to some pie in the sky world without transitioning. In other words, the price would be too high to get rid of government (all or even a large part) ... and to say, now all these services will be left to the private sector voluntarily.... your vision is too incomplete for such, and frequently, when we get rid of government in various areas, it just gets screwed up and instead of being screwed by government we are being screwed by capitalists who are gouging us to death through the amount the charge for what should be a public good.

So let's move on and talk about bitcoin or even litecoin or even doge coin.. he he he

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 19, 2014, 09:30:32 AM

The funny thing is JJG and I both disagree with the generally held view that monopoly government is a necessary evil. The difference is that he claims it's not evil and I claim it's not necessary.

This attempt at a sum up is a somewhat better than your previous sum ups.. I suppose - to the extent that we have delved into details.... If you may recall, I have been kicking and screaming about having to go into the weeds regarding these various topics... so likely we have NOT truly discussed how I feel about government except for me to suggest the view that government is a product of community to decide how to design it and how much to have of it, if at all. ... but NOW, and in your most recent posts, you are adding in this Fox news talking point (whether you watch Fox or NOT) about the evils of monopoly, which has its own set of baggage that we have NOT really discussed the various implications of monopoly. With your various passions on this anti-government topic, you truly seem to be inclined to attribute viewpoints to people which will facilitate your attack and denigration. I would suggest that you go attempt to be positive in the world and to build something rather than being obsessed with building fantasies to battle.

So go forth... ... I know you wont listen to any of my suggestion in this direction b/c you dont like being told what to do. Cheesy

Quote from: mladen00 on March 19, 2014, 10:30:09 AM

I hope BRICS ( Brasil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries will say bye bye to USD as second fiat and take BTC

That is really wishful thinking... ... likely, this kind of thing, if it were to occur at all at some point, would come from a smaller location first.. maybe argentina... or greece or zimbabwe or Haiti... and probably it would NOT be all in .. but instead a experimental type exploratory situation

Quote from: mah87 on March 19, 2014, 08:40:45 PM

ripplescam.org doesn't explain how ripple works AT ALL. This is crazy how people eat bullshit.... Seriously, ripplescam.org is 100% wrong about ripple, this is JUST NOT WORKING THE WAY IT IS DESCRIBED... damn... anyone thinking instead of eating propaganda ?

Whenever I see a statement about 100% right or wrong, red flags go up for me.... and I begin to wonder if there could be some EXAGGERATIONS taking place.. .maybe? Tongue

Quote from: flynn on March 19, 2014, 09:37:41 PM

Quote from: tarmi on March 19, 2014, 09:32:59 PM

Quote from: Protagonus on March 19, 2014, 09:31:14 PM

Quote from: GaliX on March 19, 2014, 09:29:31 PM

Quote from: FelixO on March 19, 2014, 09:29:22 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 19, 2014, 09:28:22 PM

Quote from: bitjoint on March 19, 2014, 09:04:04 PM

Quote from: chessnut on March 19, 2014, 08:58:22 PM

Quote from: 600watt on March 19, 2014, 08:52:12 PM

Quote from: stan.distortion on March 19, 2014, 08:42:12 PM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 19, 2014, 08:30:35 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 19, 2014, 08:28:22 PM

Ripple sounded like a great idea. Until I looked into it.

+1

+2

+3

+4

+5

+6

+7

+8

+9

+X

= N*(N+1)/2

+ One Dozen

Quote from: mah87 on March 20, 2014, 01:54:38 AM

Quote from: coins101 on March 20, 2014, 01:53:24 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 20, 2014, 01:40:22 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 19, 2014, 10:00:38 PM

Quote from: flynn on March 19, 2014, 09:37:41 PM

Quote from: tarmi on March 19, 2014, 09:32:59 PM

Quote from: Protagonus on March 19, 2014, 09:31:14 PM

Quote from: GaliX on March 19, 2014, 09:29:31 PM

Quote from: FelixO on March 19, 2014, 09:29:22 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 19, 2014, 09:28:22 PM

Quote from: bitjoint on March 19, 2014, 09:04:04 PM

Quote from: chessnut on March 19, 2014, 08:58:22 PM

Quote from: 600watt on March 19, 2014, 08:52:12 PM

Quote from: stan.distortion on March 19, 2014, 08:42:12 PM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 19, 2014, 08:30:35 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 19, 2014, 08:28:22 PM

Ripple sounded like a great idea. Until I looked into it.

+1

+2

+3

+4

+5

+6

+7

+8

+9

+X

= N*(N+1)/2

+ One Dozen

+XIII

+∞

THIS is the proof I'm right and that you are all like people mocking bitcoin in 2011. This is really funny =D

This is proof that you are on the right track to troll this thread... b/c if anyone were taking your side, you would have to question your effectiveness in being an irritatitant, except your new kind of buddy, HDBUCK seems to be on your side. Wink

Quote from: surfer43 on March 20, 2014, 01:56:14 AM

So if Bitcoin fails, i.e. price crashes and doesn't come back up, then nothing will be able to replace it for some period of time. This would prove cryptocurrencies are not a good store of value and would severely hinder any adoption of altcoins...

Your prediction of demise is far too early... And, you seem to be assuming facts that are NOT in evidence... ... b/c to have a loss of complete confidence, the level of failure would have to be pretty foundational.... B/c the invention is quite amazing, if you really begin to grasp the non-duplicating nature... ...

Also, I would hardly call $600 or even $300 a failure... Maybe if we were to start getting in the below $50 double digits, we may need to reconsider whether a crypto failure is in the mix of considerations.

Quote from: chessnut on March 20, 2014, 01:30:06 AM

Id say we will see 580 tonight. could see lower of coarse. there is no liquidity and the bears are out to play.

We do NOT really know for sure that there is going to be additional falling of the BTC price....b/c otherwise I would sell.. especially if it is really clear that there is a few percentage in there.. maybe 5 or 10%.. and maybe a lot of us would sell if it was really clear... $580 would be getting to the 5% level... if there were confidence in such.... ... but maybe the confidence needs to be more or the level of adjustment larger - especially if we were to be getting to the 10% or more levels.. which would be around $550...

People are putting out these projections... but I wonder if anyone, besides whales, are really putting any money into their inclinations... many of us seem to be hovering and waiting for some action.. afraid to buy and afraid to sell. Undecided

Probably, several of us have been burned in the past by our perceptions of these kinds of down trending situations b/c certainly it appears that the BTC price is going to fall more, but then it ends up to be at its bottom... b/c some whale or bot jumps into the fray and butts are burning...

My finger is hovering on the buy trigger... (I buy through Coinbase which is NOT always exactly in line with Bitstamp)

I just do NOT know how soon before I should pull that trigger b/c, of course, I would prefer to make such purchase at the lowest possible price.... so as I type we are hovering between $605 and $608.... which also is approaching a more than two week low.. ... so the current BTC price seems relatively attractive to me... but then again I am thinking that as soon as I buy, the price will thereafter decide to decline further.. and then I will likely be kicking myself b/c I would have preferred to buy at $580 or at $560 rather than at $605... if we are pretty confident that the price is going to go to one of those lower levels..

Quote from: explorer on March 20, 2014, 05:33:18 AM

Quote from: creekbore on March 20, 2014, 05:08:40 AM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 20, 2014, 05:01:28 AM

Quote from: tarmi on March 19, 2014, 09:32:59 PM

Quote from: Protagonus on March 19, 2014, 09:31:14 PM

+9

+X

good call... we need to go to Roman numerals to conserve space.

Let's save more and go binary

I'll start.

0

1

Quote from: Remember remember the 5th of November on March 20, 2014, 05:57:12 AM

Yay...err, no. I can see we're heading for under 600. FML, I bought at 670.

I think that a lot of us are in a similar situation with average BTC buy-ins in the upper 600s and even in the 700s or higher. I am currently at $686 average BTC buy-in rate - which includes my transaction fees, and even though I find it a little bit frustrating to be at this seemingly low BTC price level, I am continuing to use these low BTC prices as buying opportunities to buy more BTC than I had expected to be able to buy on a fairly regular basis... and gambling that ultimately the BTC fundamentals have NOT changed in a negative way and if anything on an ongoing basis the BTC fundamentals are getting more and more solid with more and more big investors coming into the BTC arena and nearly daily basis good news pertaining to more and more ways to liquidate BTC.

Surely, we have a ways to go in ease of use of BTC and inspiring public confidence regarding security of their coins, but if you are into BTC for an 18 month to 24 month period or possibly more, we are going to be looking pretty pretty at that point b/c I have only been willing and able to invest so much fiat into BTC at any one time in the front end of my investment.... Accordingly, my quantity of BTC is much larger than what I had expected it to be, at this time.

Quote from: mooncake on March 20, 2014, 07:04:15 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 20, 2014, 06:45:17 AM

Quote from: Remember remember the 5th of November on March 20, 2014, 05:57:12 AM

Yay...err, no. I can see we're heading for under 600. FML, I bought at 670.

I think that a lot of us are in a similar situation with average BTC buy-ins in the upper 600s and even in the 700s or higher. I am currently at $686 average BTC buy-in rate - which includes my transaction fees, and even though I find it a little bit frustrating to be at this seemingly low BTC price level, I am continuing to use these low BTC prices as buying opportunities to buy more BTC than I had expected to be able to buy on a fairly regular basis... and gambling that ultimately the BTC fundamentals have NOT changed in a negative way and if anything on an ongoing basis the BTC fundamentals are getting more and more solid with more and more big investors coming into the BTC arena and nearly daily basis good news pertaining to more and more ways to liquidate BTC.

Surely, we have a ways to go in ease of use of BTC and inspiring public confidence regarding security of their coins, but if you are into BTC for an 18 month to 24 month period or possibly more, we are going to be looking pretty pretty at that point b/c I have only been willing and able to invest so much fiat into BTC at any one time in the front end of my investment.... Accordingly, my quantity of BTC is much larger than what I had expected it to be, at this time.

You can only buy so much unless you are the Fed.

I have had an approximate budget that I have allocated a certain quantity of fiat to invest into BTC... which was meant to be on average $4-5K per month for 7 months.... approximately, with a goal of front loading the BTC investment, somewhat.... then, of course, I would need to reconsider at various points whether I believed that I was somewhat on track, and I have largely stuck with my initial allocation strategy.

I'm certainly NOT the fed in terms of how much fiat I can afford to throw at this particular situation.

Quote from: Threebits on March 20, 2014, 07:16:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 20, 2014, 06:45:17 AM

Quote from: Remember remember the 5th of November on March 20, 2014, 05:57:12 AM

Yay...err, no. I can see we're heading for under 600. FML, I bought at 670.

I think that a lot of us are in a similar situation with average BTC buy-ins in the upper 600s and even in the 700s or higher. I am currently at $686 average BTC buy-in rate - which includes my transaction fees, and even though I find it a little bit frustrating to be at this seemingly low BTC price level, I am continuing to use these low BTC prices as buying opportunities to buy more BTC than I had expected to be able to buy on a fairly regular basis... and gambling that ultimately the BTC fundamentals have NOT changed in a negative way and if anything on an ongoing basis the BTC fundamentals are getting more and more solid with more and more big investors coming into the BTC arena and nearly daily basis good news pertaining to more and more ways to liquidate BTC.

Surely, we have a ways to go in ease of use of BTC and inspiring public confidence regarding security of their coins, but if you are into BTC for an 18 month to 24 month period or possibly more, we are going to be looking pretty pretty at that point b/c I have only been willing and able to invest so much fiat into BTC at any one time in the front end of my investment.... Accordingly, my quantity of BTC is much larger than what I had expected it to be, at this time.

Average buy-in is also my buying policy. It seems USD 600 is fairly low but who knows to which area it will be heading down and how long it will last at that area?

For example, if price goes down to area usd 300 and remain for 1 year, I will be very frustrated with my average buy-in policy, as my stock is already heavy, repeating last average shares compensate very little to my cost, unless I increase average share by 3times or more. Regrettably my financial position does not allow 3x.

Does a simple average buy-in works on bitcoin?

Personally, I think that dollar cost averaging works on anything - so long as the price of the asset goes up at some point. B/c even in the scenario that you describe of staying at $300 for a long period.. then just keep buying once a month or once a week or whatever is your time interval.... sooner or later your average buy in price will approach $300.

The problem would come if the price is on a never ending downward trajectory b/c even though your average buy in price continues to go down, the price of the asset never goes up.... .. but at least you would probably still be able to recover quite a bit, unless the asset suddenly goes to zero, before you recognize the need to cash out.

Quote from: Jeezy911 on March 20, 2014, 07:33:25 AM

Well this feels like a good buy spot. I have no sceince to back my claim. Probably going to get 1 bitcoin tomorrow.

Why wait until tomorrow? OH yeah.. Thursdays are pump days, No?

Quote from: Davyd05 on March 20, 2014, 08:24:44 AM

DCA, hmm had I just thought buy and hold in sept .. I would have alot more btc Cheesy

Of course, if you know or have a strong inclination that the market is moving upward, then you would NOT necessarily employ DCA.. .you would front load... to the greatest extent that you could afford... and of course, the more confidence you have, maybe the more you may leverage other assets to really go balls to the walls.... I would rarely employ such a balls to the walls method, personally.

I am suggesting that DCA would likely work better when there is considerable volatility, and the investor doesn't really know which way the asset price is going to go. Also, DCA works pretty well when the asset is trending downward.. but the investor doesn't really know how long or when that downward trend is going to end.. .but expects an upward movement at some future point... that is also unclear as to when, exactly.

Otherwise, I do NOT really claim to be any kind of expert on DCA, except that I generally tend to employ some version of DCA in my various investments.... Maybe b/c of my fairly conservative risk aversion and possibly due to lack of confidence in exactly how well I can predict on a day to day basis concerning the price direction of various assets?

Quote from: gotmilk_ on March 20, 2014, 02:35:12 PM

Quote from: seleme on March 20, 2014, 02:30:28 PM

Quote from: tarmi on March 20, 2014, 02:26:12 PM

Quote from: gotmilk_ on March 20, 2014, 02:23:59 PM

would be great to have fiat on stamp right now... in one month this price will be a joke.

but, but, but...

bears said the same thing one month ago.

You mean bulls? Cheesy

This price will be a joke soon, just not sure how soon Grin

Sooon

I'm calling 900$ by 1. May... Not sure why, but have that feeling... till then trading with alts is more interesting Wink

Trading with bitcoin has been interesting last couple of days... b/c price has been dropping fairly considerably...

Quote from: Todorius on March 20, 2014, 11:23:01 AM

Quote from: joburgtaxi on March 20, 2014, 11:14:27 AM

Quote from: GaliX on March 20, 2014, 11:03:55 AM

Quote from: surfer43 on March 20, 2014, 11:00:26 AM

buy or sell Huh

if you ask your self buy or sell, it's most of the time buy.

If people sell you should buy to make profit.

Think you should have sold a while ago already

I think one year from now it won't matter much if you bought at 400, 500 or 600. You'll probably be in the deep profit zone anyway Wink

Of course, if you're not hodling, it does matter.

Yeah.. but some people are in the $700, $800 or more range, and will it matter for them?

Quote from: Bronstad on March 20, 2014, 11:40:56 AM

Quote from: joburgtaxi on March 20, 2014, 11:34:19 AM

Quick question, how does one add an avatar, I am now a full member but am still getting a red message saying that I am not able to add an avatar.

You can't. They turned off the ability. Apparently it was used as an attack vector to hack the site or something, so they just disabled the ability for people to update them. I suppose one day they will actually update the website, and you can add one then.

YEAH>>>>> I want an avatar.....

Quote from: wachtwoord on March 20, 2014, 03:00:00 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 20, 2014, 02:59:01 PM

Quote from: Todorius on March 20, 2014, 11:23:01 AM

Quote from: joburgtaxi on March 20, 2014, 11:14:27 AM

Quote from: GaliX on March 20, 2014, 11:03:55 AM

Quote from: surfer43 on March 20, 2014, 11:00:26 AM

buy or sell Huh

if you ask your self buy or sell, it's most of the time buy.

If people sell you should buy to make profit.

Think you should have sold a while ago already

I think one year from now it won't matter much if you bought at 400, 500 or 600. You'll probably be in the deep profit zone anyway Wink

Of course, if you're not hodling, it does matter.

Yeah.. but some people are in the $700, $800 or more range, and will it matter for them?

One year is too short to say for certain, but in 5 years they'll certainly be in the green as long as they don't sell.

I do NOT really have a problem with the one year from now framework... or even 2 years from now framework. Actually, most of us in this thread expect that there is going to be a lot of action in the bitcoin space in the next 1-2 years... and probably it is fairly certain that we are going to know one way or another with bitcoin by 2 years.... Even 2 years seems like an eternity in bitcoin (or crypto currency) time.... but 5 years is seeming way too abstract and open for contemplation.... which could be a massive variety of possibilities, besides bitcoin.... or even a bitcoin 2.0 that is fully developed and networked....

In essence, I am thinking that it is too amorphous to be speculating about 5 years... and more grounded to be considering bitcoin in terms of 1 to 2 years.

Quote from: solarflare on March 20, 2014, 04:57:22 PM

Quote from: seriouscoin on March 20, 2014, 04:51:08 PM

Quote from: Protagonus on March 20, 2014, 04:45:53 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 20, 2014, 04:01:16 PM

ideas for new poll?

how about something like "has the news and trends this year changed your confidence in BTC?"

-Yes, I love bitcoins more!
-No, I don't change that easy.
-No, what news?
-Yes, running for the hills.
-buy
-Sell
-Hodl
-where can I get Bitcorn

just drop hodl already. Its way too lame.

Beside why make a poll thats just for jking around?

The polls here are completely useless (like most discussions, see: +1, +2, +3, ...).
I would like to see serious polls with answers that make sense.

-1

Quote from: damiano on March 20, 2014, 07:52:40 PM

Think we will see 400?

We may NOT even see $569, absent some kind of jarring news...

Quote from: 600watt on March 20, 2014, 09:42:23 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 20, 2014, 09:33:19 PM

I need to stop looking at charts and work out how to get into building Bitcoin infrastructure.

you are right. when i was sitting in our kitchen drinking some minutes ago being somewhat concerned about the charts it dawned on me that i prefer the price being like it is while all those good news are pouring in about corporate adoption, growth, wall street, etc as opposed to a skyrocketing price with no substantial good news behind.
just check coindesk any day for the last week and compare that to the news a year ago. ccmf will happen sooner or later. i will try to stop worrying about the charts.

In other words....... HODL, HODL, HODL, HODL.... !!!!!!!! Cheesy

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 20, 2014, 10:30:15 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 20, 2014, 10:14:58 PM

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3365497539001/bitcoin-for-the-ordinary-investor/#sp=show-clips

so now we know how liquidity will work for B.I.T.

the "institutional investors" which we're allowed to get in early on bitcoin, are going to dump on "ordinary-investors"

as long as the SCC is there providing oversight makes this AOK

lmao

In recent weeks, I have been considering ways to be more sympathetic to the various dilemmas of institutional investors, though.. when it comes to their potential considerations of investing into BTC.

B/c if you think about big investors, they would likely want to invest considerable sums into BTC (cryptos), if they could get approval for such... then they would likely invest hundreds of millions or more (which may still only be a small percentage of their overall managed portfolio).. and then we know that even investing 100 million would likely cause a price spike... and even some logistical difficulties getting that many BTC in one pop...... or even to get that many BTC over a week or two.

Another problem that these institutional investors seem to have (including mouth pieces like Peter Schiff) is the psychological barrier problem in which they have feelings that if they were to invest into BTC, they would be giving their hard earned money to people who do not deserve it... ... that seems to be part of the reason why they keep asserting ponzi scheme and Winkelvoss brothers all are given lots of negative press and labeled continuously as a couple of undeserving whiners rich-brat abnormalities.

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 21, 2014, 02:35:33 AM

580.CouldaWouldaShoulda

Who wouda thunk?

Quote from: keithers on March 21, 2014, 02:45:12 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 21, 2014, 02:33:55 AM

Quote from: oyvinds on March 21, 2014, 02:27:56 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on March 21, 2014, 02:05:18 AM

If I wasn't as much of a buy and holder as I am I would have sold on the news of gox having xxx,xxx coins left lol. People somehow associate this with a reason to dump...not to say there aren't good reasons for why you should sell.. just seems unhealthy to be so fearful.

The API did show those 200k BTC moving around a few weeks ago so it wasn't exactly breaking news that those 200k were under their control - but it is something to watch.

Consider this:

- MtGox creditors (customers) must be threated equally. This is an absolute requirement.
- The amount of fiat currency they have divided by fiat owed to their customers is X%
- The amount of BTC currency they have divided by BTC owed to their customers is Y%

This creates a problem. X not being equal to Y and the fact that X and Y creditors must be threated equal creates a problem. One solution would be to sell the 200k BTC and pay all creditors using fiat.

lol if a 200K wall pops up, i'm sorry but i'm gonna panic sell.. lol

I am long in both BTC and LTC, and haven't sold any BTC in a long long time. If a 200k BTC sell wall comes up, I will definitely sell some and re-buy some though...

You still definitely would NOT know, merely from the appearance of a wall, that such a wall were real or NOT.. unless you knew some back-story.

Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on March 21, 2014, 03:00:24 AM

Quote from: gentlemand on March 21, 2014, 02:52:31 AM

Gox themselves confirm they have 200,000 coins

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140320-btc-announce.pdf

Quote

Please note that the reasons for their disappearance and the exact number of bitcoins
which disappeared is still under investigation and that the above figures may still change depending
on the results of the investigation

THIS

Gox is reserving its prerogative to change its story at any time.... and either come up with more coins or to lose more....

In this regard, Mark - the slimy chubby dweeb - may perceive it to be in his best interest to cough up the fricken coins... or at least to cough up more than is currently admitted to...

Quote from: Davyd05 on March 21, 2014, 03:07:33 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 21, 2014, 03:01:18 AM

Quote from: keithers on March 21, 2014, 02:45:12 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 21, 2014, 02:33:55 AM

Quote from: oyvinds on March 21, 2014, 02:27:56 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on March 21, 2014, 02:05:18 AM

If I wasn't as much of a buy and holder as I am I would have sold on the news of gox having xxx,xxx coins left lol. People somehow associate this with a reason to dump...not to say there aren't good reasons for why you should sell.. just seems unhealthy to be so fearful.

The API did show those 200k BTC moving around a few weeks ago so it wasn't exactly breaking news that those 200k were under their control - but it is something to watch.

Consider this:

- MtGox creditors (customers) must be threated equally. This is an absolute requirement.
- The amount of fiat currency they have divided by fiat owed to their customers is X%
- The amount of BTC currency they have divided by BTC owed to their customers is Y%

This creates a problem. X not being equal to Y and the fact that X and Y creditors must be threated equal creates a problem. One solution would be to sell the 200k BTC and pay all creditors using fiat.

lol if a 200K wall pops up, i'm sorry but i'm gonna panic sell.. lol

I am long in both BTC and LTC, and haven't sold any BTC in a long long time. If a 200k BTC sell wall comes up, I will definitely sell some and re-buy some though...

You still definitely would NOT know, merely from the appearance of a wall, that such a wall were real or NOT.. unless you knew some back-story.

I was really just relating to selling on the news of the gox coins making a re appearance in the news plus some confirmations from gox themselves. I was aware of the coins existence before today reiterations.

We've taken this whole scenario on a limb... ... but I believe I get your original point that GOX news is NOT necessarily negative.. or a reason to sell in and of itself. But, we have already learned that BTC price reactions do NOT necessarily follow logic. Huh

Quote from: magicmexican on March 21, 2014, 02:44:34 PM

fake news or not, market is really trigger happy now

Also, I am searching... searching... searching..... for the bottom..... maybe $550? or maybe $510 over weekend?

Quote from: dreamspark on March 21, 2014, 03:30:34 PM

Quote from: cbutters on March 21, 2014, 03:18:36 PM

Did anyone catch this quote from the mtgox statement.

“Taking into account the existence of the 200,000 BTC, the total number of bitcoins which have disappeared is therefore estimated to be approximately 650,000 BTC.”"

So.. its basically official that M.K. is just a complete and utter retard right? Who moves 200,000 BTC to verify they have control of bitcoin and then forgets that they exist. Does this ultimately point to the more likely possibility that M.K. just lost the private keys but had an old database backup that he eventually went and fished these 200,000 coins out of after the community pointed them out?

also... how does 850,000 missing vs 650,000 missing affect the markets?

They don't, I have no idea how you just find a wallet with 200,000 BTC when others can see it on the blockchain etc. It suggest to me personally that the theories regarding lost keys or badly written key generating software are the most plausible.

I wouldnt be surprised to see a large part of the 850k slowly being 'found' what this does to the price however is anyone's guess

I was thinking something like this would evolve also. B/c even though it appears fairly likely, based on our current knowledge of the situation, that Mark was up to some incredible Shenanigans, he is likely realizing that he is in much bigger doo doo than he anticipated. Surely, he has a large number of civil lawsuits, but worse, he has potential for major criminal prosecutions, too. Accordingly, b/c he values his freedom more than he values drinking cappuccinos, he is going to find more BTC and realize that those BTC were NOT stolen.. they were merely misplaced....

In the end, I will speculate (since this is the speculation thread) that GOX is going to find more than 60% of their previously lost/misplaced coins... which will be more than 500K found coins....

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on March 21, 2014, 04:04:53 PM

Quote from: stan.distortion on March 21, 2014, 04:01:53 PM

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on March 21, 2014, 03:55:13 PM

...
How many would you buy if the price went to one dollar?

Is that one of those zen questions, like 'if a tree falls in a forest with no one to hear it does it make a sound?'?

No, I can put a dollar amount on it. Everything in my bank account.

The same problem exists whether the BTC price is $1 or $580, no?

The question would be whether the BTC price is going to go up or down.

If the price of BTC were to go to $1, which seems super speculative at this point, some very serious shit would have to had taken place.

Of course, if the BTC fundamentals remained the same as now, and the reason for the price dropping to $1 is merely b/c of some misinformation or some ill found rumors, then under those circumstances, an investor may well mortgage the farm and sell the first child in order to acquire as many BTC as possible. Personally, under the second situation of bad information and the same fundamentals, I would have been buying all the way down from $580 to $1, so maybe I would NOT have any cash left by the time the price reached $1.

Quote from: rebuilder on March 21, 2014, 04:29:27 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on March 21, 2014, 03:30:34 PM

They don't, I have no idea how you just find a wallet with 200,000 BTC when others can see it on the blockchain etc. It suggest to me personally that the theories regarding lost keys or badly written key generating software are the most plausible.

I wouldnt be surprised to see a large part of the 850k slowly being 'found' what this does to the price however is anyone's guess

Remember that interview with Karpeles saying the bitcons weren't technically lost, just unavailable? Either gox are lying through their teeth or they had some seriously poor practices. I can't say which is more likely. I've found a few old wallets I'd forgotten about, and no amount of people pointng at the blockchain would have helped me remember where the private keys where. Then again, I have never been entrusted with hundreds of thousands of BTC of other people's money, so my laxness is somewhat more excusable.

That's part of the reason why analogies to individual behavior is inadequate.

Obligations are different when dealing with other people's money, whether as a trusted individual, a corporation or a government.

Analogies to individual behavior do NOT quite fit these other situations.... except maybe in the limited sense that an individual may logically assert that his/her behavior matters to the well-being of his/her family who entrust him/her to make wise decisions with the family assets.

Quote from: aminorex on March 21, 2014, 04:48:35 PM

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on March 21, 2014, 03:55:13 PM

Quote from: hodlmybtc on March 21, 2014, 03:50:48 PM

Quote from: donut on March 21, 2014, 03:37:55 PM

Just bought 1 btc at 574, time will tell if this is the bottom.

I bought at 572, willing to buy more the coming days if price drops more

How many would you buy if the price went to one dollar?

For $1 BTC I think I could scrounge up about 300k without asking friends. But it would be quicker just to ask friends.

If you had been buying BTC all the way down to $1, maybe you would NOT have any more fiat left, and maybe you would have to ask friends, no?

Quote from: delphic on March 21, 2014, 05:11:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 21, 2014, 05:03:46 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on March 21, 2014, 03:30:34 PM

Quote from: cbutters on March 21, 2014, 03:18:36 PM

Did anyone catch this quote from the mtgox statement.

“Taking into account the existence of the 200,000 BTC, the total number of bitcoins which have disappeared is therefore estimated to be approximately 650,000 BTC.”"

So.. its basically official that M.K. is just a complete and utter retard right? Who moves 200,000 BTC to verify they have control of bitcoin and then forgets that they exist. Does this ultimately point to the more likely possibility that M.K. just lost the private keys but had an old database backup that he eventually went and fished these 200,000 coins out of after the community pointed them out?

also... how does 850,000 missing vs 650,000 missing affect the markets?

They don't, I have no idea how you just find a wallet with 200,000 BTC when others can see it on the blockchain etc. It suggest to me personally that the theories regarding lost keys or badly written key generating software are the most plausible.

I wouldnt be surprised to see a large part of the 850k slowly being 'found' what this does to the price however is anyone's guess

I was thinking something like this would evolve also. B/c even though it appears fairly likely, based on our current knowledge of the situation, that Mark was up to some incredible Shenanigans, he is likely realizing that he is in much bigger doo doo than he anticipated. Surely, he has a large number of civil lawsuits, but worse, he has potential for major criminal prosecutions, too. Accordingly, b/c he values his freedom more than he values drinking cappuccinos, he is going to find more BTC and realize that those BTC were NOT stolen.. they were merely misplaced....

In the end, I will speculate (since this is the speculation thread) that GOX is going to find more than 60% of their previously lost/misplaced coins... which will be more than 500K found coins....

...or maybe it is just part of Karpeles' game and people are supposed to be *grateful* that they have at least got some coins back, and swallow the story about the rest being lost.

I would not put anything past Karpeles now.

I think Karpeles' biggest problem might be that some of the BTC inevitably belonged to some very shady people (typically gentlemen short of a finger) who might want to take him for a car ride to discuss matters.

If I were Karpeles, I would not count on ever drawing a pension.

Just my two cents; I did not have any BTC or $ in Gox.

Yes, I agree with your statement, including the fact that some shady characters may be resentful about Karpeles's behavior in this matter.... and accordingly, Karpeles has achieved very negative notoriety. I suppose the bitcoin scene differs from fiat in that with fiat scandals, there is supposed to be legal recourse, but lots of people get screwed for greater amounts... but maybe they cannot always place a finger exactly on who caused their losing the money... IN this regard, Karpeles has become personally notorious and equated with GOX.

Quote from: dreamspark on March 21, 2014, 06:09:23 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 21, 2014, 05:27:32 PM

but your friend would be freshly out of fiat as well.

You'd think but a large part of my friends wouldn't buy even if we went really low. Meanwhile I'd be loading up, locking them in the freezer and wait till I've got enough for my island Cool

What would you be locking in the freezer? Your friends? Hopefully, they would be issued space heater and oxygen, too.

Quote from: mah87 on March 21, 2014, 11:33:28 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 21, 2014, 11:32:45 PM

Quote from: mah87 on March 21, 2014, 11:26:18 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 21, 2014, 11:05:29 PM

what's happening dear adam ? why is this going down ?

i have no idea

i only know why it goes up

going down makes no sense!

maybe because bitcoin is only based on beliefs and no real economy ?

Mah87: If you already figured that you knew the answer to your question, then why did you ask? Your response certainly falls within the definition of a troll... To ask questions that cause others to do all the work and NOT to really contribute any value...

Quote from: shmadz on March 22, 2014, 01:49:23 AM

Hi JorgeStolfi

how much value can you give to volume if there are no fees?

thanks

I am pretty sure that my trading inclination is much affected upon the size of the fee(s)... and zero fees would turn me into a trading hawk... rather than a trading dove.

I get scared by BTC-e's measly .2% fee.... .b/c I figure that I gotta make .4% just to break even... and stamp is like .5% for the little rollers, like me, and coinbase charges me 1% (even though that is NOT technically trading).. These fees all add up to disincentives, at least for me.

Maybe any measurement of exchange volume should be adjusted based on the size of the fee..... especially if comparing one exchange to another.

Quote from: buybitcoinscanada on March 22, 2014, 03:47:21 AM

Quote from: seleme on March 22, 2014, 03:34:32 AM

Quote from: shmadz on March 22, 2014, 03:31:09 AM

Quote from: seleme on March 22, 2014, 03:26:01 AM

0% fees are good in flat markets, I don't particularly care about fees when big swings are imminent. If I'm making 15-20% on a trade, I don't really care about 0.5% fees.

0.5% would be quite acceptable, I've been dealing with 1.5%, which is mostly why I'm no longer trading. Hodling only now.

I'm curious seleme, do you think the 0% fee structure will take over and become the norm? It certainly seems like the asian markets are going that way.

I don't see point in 0% fees. Why would anyone run a business without making profit on it? It smells shady.

Bitcoin exchanges fees are huge compered to other markets but 0% is not normal.

They make money by using their advantage to play their own exchange.

What advantage is that? Are they using fake money or using other people's money to manipulate or to make artificial walls? I could see those kinds of manipulations by exchange owners...

Quote from: damnek on March 22, 2014, 10:32:01 AM

This is ridiculous. Who the hell would dump 2.5k coins onto the market considering that we've been red for the last 7 days? This has to be the dumb money.

I'm of the same thinking... seems to be pretty dumb-ass - unless there is some kind of insider information that we don't know about...

Quote from: damnek on March 22, 2014, 10:41:32 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 22, 2014, 10:37:44 AM

a lot of us here know how great bitcoin is, and so we expect huge money in the shadows all the time.

I challenge this for two reasons;

- institutional money is timid to enter the exchnges. it is a lot of risk to hold millions of dollars on an unregulated exchange.

- not everyone thinks it's great! we are in good company, but never far from a bitcoin basher. we would be wise to expect corrections to natural fibonacci levels than guessing that the illuminati is ready in the wings to buy billions of dollars of bitcoin!

Let me remind you that facebook bought whatsapp for 19 billion USD.

One of the differences with bitcoin is that it remains very difficult for any new investor to come into bitcoin and to acquire large holdings without causing the price to be upwardly affected. Certainly anything even approaching 1 billion in bitcoin would take time to acquire.

Quote from: chessnut on March 22, 2014, 10:54:03 AM

Quote from: tarmi on March 22, 2014, 10:53:26 AM

to me, only question of time when 530 $ is breach.

then it will be panic time.

+1

and 3400 in china

That is a really vague statement... matter of time could be hours, days, weeks, months ... If such thing does NOT happen in the next couple of weeks, then likely it will NEVER happen... but I presume you are estimating that this supposed slow erosion of BTC price(s) is happening over the weekend or maybe by no later than next weekend?

Quote from: threecats on March 22, 2014, 03:15:48 PM

Quote from: fonzie on March 22, 2014, 02:01:34 PM

Fuck me, i blame it on those 350ug acid tabs, but i´m feelin bullish for BTC again.
I hope i won´t get burned for all that love about BTC(price). Cheesy

Just bought 30 new coins.
If we go below 490$ i will never post again, promised.

better get your last posts in quick bud : -)

I am sure that there would be many more posters here, who would be willing to take a bet that we will NOT breach $490 within the next two weeks. Personally, I am ON THE FENCE about whether I would make such a bet. I am inclined to think that if we do breach $490, such a breach would be NO more than a few hours, and such breach would only come as a result of some major news or even some fake news that allows a certain level of panic and/or manipulation. I have considerable difficulties even with any belief that we would breach $510 in the next couple of weeks, without something dramatic occurring.

Quote from: seriouscoin on March 22, 2014, 05:34:45 PM

Quote from: tarmi on March 22, 2014, 05:27:44 PM

He nailed one thing for sure: the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

Oh its you again, welcome back

Had you not "cashed out" around $100 mark you would have made alot more.

I recall you sold lot b4 that as well.

I feel your pain, so go on with your bearish campaign.

Typical sour grapes

" I didnt plant the grapes and i cant afford them, they must have been sour"

Yes... this probably explains the trolling nature of Tarmi's posts... .. but anyhow the answer seems to be obvious about the volume going down... with increased difficulties for whale manipulators to squeeze very many more coins out of anyone... more or less they buying and selling from themselves.. and that is NOT convincing any real people to sell. .. a large majority of them have already sold.

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 22, 2014, 05:34:58 PM

Quote from: tarmi on March 22, 2014, 05:27:44 PM

He nailed one thing for sure: the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

everyone watches the car crash until its over, then they go in to loot the survivors.

I just bought some at $560 - I think we are at the bottom, the charts flattening out and weekends are notorious for random moves on no volume.

take a step back - things are well aligned to start putting out positive spin again and knock this up by 20% in just a few day's work. For traders, that is a golden opportunity, considering its dragged down 25% or so in the last week of bad news. Most of the money in the markets is traders, rather than new buyers or sellers of old coin.

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

we have had very few bitcoin days destroyed in the last 2 weeks - this means that old wallets are still staying put and that the trading volume is mostly buying and selling the same coins around

I looked at your reference to the bitcoin days destroyed chart, and your description does NOT match with the representation s contained in that chart. We have been getting multiple spikes, and we had a spike between March 6 and March 18... and part of that may be explained by gox moving its old coins... ... but it otherwise looks like a fairly significant spike in days destroyed curing that period of time.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 22, 2014, 06:48:48 PM

Quote from: Adrian-x on March 22, 2014, 06:34:15 PM

Quote from: tarmi on March 22, 2014, 05:27:44 PM

He nailed one thing for sure: the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons.
We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat.

Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left.

That's the problem... The bears have squeezed about as much out of us as they can... They gonna have to come up with some more tricks, fud or false news to get us to stop squeezing our BTCs. I do have some fiat in reserve just in case the price drops more.. .my next buy point is at below $550 on Coinbase... and I question whether we are going to get to that price point... maybe I will have to panic buy at $570, instead?

Quote from: EvilPanda on March 22, 2014, 06:52:04 PM

Quote from: sir faps on March 22, 2014, 03:13:46 PM

Quote from: wetroof on March 22, 2014, 02:34:46 PM

objectively we are in a b*** market.

To everyone who read this as "objectively we are in a BEAR market", that is not what wetroof is saying. This statement is a joke. Literally. b*** could be bull or it could be bear. Interesting to notice how everyone who has replied to this post this far has read it as bear though...

Could be bullshit as well

or bearshit Cheesy

I am NOT sure whether there is a difference between saying something is bearshit or bullshit, except that bullshit is more commonly used and accordingly morewidely understood.. but bearshit could have the same meaning as bullshit, no?

Quote from: windjc on March 22, 2014, 06:52:29 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 22, 2014, 06:48:48 PM

Quote from: Adrian-x on March 22, 2014, 06:34:15 PM

Quote from: tarmi on March 22, 2014, 05:27:44 PM

He nailed one thing for sure: the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons.
We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat.

Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left.

I think the first major resistance will be in the $530 range: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=526445.0

After that the daily 300 EMA is in the 470 area. Anything below that to $400 is going to be a major dogfight.

I expect the bulls to start putting up a real fight soon. This could continue lower for another month or two, but I think we are going to be running out of steam for the bears shortly.

If we see anything below $380, then I will celebrate with joy, because I have about $200k in fiat ready to go all in at any prices that gets that low.

The chances seem pretty high that you are going to be left behind if you are waiting for such pie in the sky numbers that are in the below $400 range. I will grant you that it is possible to go into the 400s.. possibly down to $470... but it is likely that the bulls will be fighting before it reaches $470.... unless it just happens to be a flash crash based on hyping news.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 22, 2014, 07:06:05 PM

Quote from: podyx on March 22, 2014, 06:52:46 PM

im supposed to not wire more fiat then i can lose but i might have to do it Cool

A monetary loss cannot be measured just in dollars, you must consider what it could mean to your life, now and in the future. If you have a few million $, losing 100 k$ is only an inconvenience, and you will probably recover those 100 k$ in a matter of months . If all you own is a house worth 200 k$, losing 100 k$ is a big trauma, may even cost your family and you may never recover those 100 k$.

If it helps you decide, I am going to change my signature from "rather skeptic" to "very skeptic". I now put the chances of Bitcoin (specifically, not some future crypto-coin) becoming a significant currency of e-commerce at about the same level of myself becoming Pope. And it has nothing to do with price evolution or recent news.

what are your time lines for these various death of bitcoin predictions?

Is bitcoin just going to suffer a slow death, or will its death be sudden, at some point? The most painful under your hypothetical scenario would be if the BTC price were to just slowly keeps going down while sucking more and more of us bulls into buying.. and then all of our lives' savings would be in bitcoin, when it goes belly up?

So you are here in this thread to try to save as many of us as you can, while there is is still hope to save some of us?

thanks for caring!!!! Kiss

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 22, 2014, 07:57:52 PM

Even cryptocurrency, a potentially nice idea, has become the "property" of a swarm of scumbags, that make bankers look like angels of virtue and generosity. in comparison.

There are scumbags everywhere, and probably the ratios are NOT any worse in the bitcoin scene as compared with banking or other industries.

If I were to theorize based on a valid scientific study in this regard, I would bet that current traditional industries, including banks have a higher percentage of scumbags douches that steal money from regular people and engage in unethical fraud conduct as compared with the bitcoin space. Of course, you could find contrary examples in each case.. but ultimately, I would theorize that if the sicentific study was conducted with valid principles and methodology, bitcoin would be filled with far fewer scumbags than traditional industries, including banks.

Quote from: boumalo on March 22, 2014, 08:10:31 PM

Quote from: Davyd05 on March 22, 2014, 08:06:09 PM

Quote from: Adrian-x on March 22, 2014, 07:50:45 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 22, 2014, 07:06:05 PM

Quote from: podyx on March 22, 2014, 06:52:46 PM

im supposed to not wire more fiat then i can lose but i might have to do it Cool

A monetary loss cannot be measured just in dollars, you must consider what it could mean to your life, now and in the future. If you have a few million $, losing 100 k$ is only an inconvenience, and you will probably recover those 100 k$ in a matter of months . If all you own is a house worth 200 k$, losing 100 k$ is a big trauma, may even cost your family and you may never recover those 100 k$.

If it helps you decide, I am going to change my signature from "rather skeptic" to "very skeptic". I now put the chances of Bitcoin (specifically, not some future crypto-coin) becoming a significant currency of e-commerce at about the same level of myself becoming Pope. And it has nothing to do with price evolution or recent news.

So you are saying don't just measure dollars but relative dollar, you can still measure in dollars.

As for your opinion I'm curious, what do you define as e-commerce?

In December 2012 I had finished my thought experiment and Bitcoin education of 20 months. (My skepticism was based on the fact my investment had over a 300% return. I could see no way for it to succeeded as a currency other than in black markets where there were greater inefficiencies. My conclusion was the velocity of Bitcoin couldn't justify the price (silk road accounting for approximately 80% of Bitcoin commerce.)

So I sold all but the fiew coins I mined. Needless to say over the following 12 months Bitcoin went from $10 to $1,000.
The shock (lost opportunity) made me reconsider my assumptions.

I finally reconciled my understanding with the fact Bitcoin could be used as a currency for e-commerce, if it's price collapsed.
But it's killer app was store of value and vertual commodity.

Since then my trading style has reflected that understanding.

I would love to know what it is about Bitcoin that has entrenched you skepticism ?

I swapped him on to my ignore as it is the same story with new vocab. I don't even know why he posts here per say...but we all arrived here somehow.

I do come here to gain a better understanding of other peoples sentiment and outside opinions to help me develop my own conclusions. Jorge focuses too much of the human aspects; exchanges run by shady char, faked volume due to 0% fees, sleeping Chinese traders, sociopaths who would take your fiat or bitcoin all the same. I invested in bitcoin ultimately because it is a technological revolution of financial accountability at its core, the many aspects of bitcoin that then stem off of this are equally impressive and innovative in my opinion.

This post can be interesting bc you get to know how people feel and sometimes you learn a thing or 2

Sometimes it makes me think about some aspect of Bitcoin that I didn't think of but I come here mostly for entertainment as I am not even trading BTC; I buy it when I can; if the price is lower I can buy more so I am happy

For how long have you been buying? How frequently do you buy and how much, approximately? How many BTC have you accumulated?

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on March 22, 2014, 08:30:33 PM

Bitcoin will fall until it's not falling anymore and no one can stop it or change that. I believed when Bitcoin finally got to $15 it would go up forever. Then I sat on my coins for months at $2 waiting for the rise.

You must admit that the fundamentals of bitcoin are much stronger, since 2011, 2012 and since mid - to - late 2013

Quote from: boumalo on March 22, 2014, 08:33:13 PM

Some big BTC holders are waiting for 2000$ 3000$ 5000$ or sometimes way more before they will sell, traders follow the trends and everyday tens of persons that didn't Bitcoin a few month ago are buying a few BTC or more in hope of a long term gain

I agree that there may be some liquidation of BTC at various price points; however, we are going to need to know how fast BTC gets to those price points before we can predict the behavior of people. If it goes quickly, then maybe we are more likely to see some selling going on... but if it goes slowly, then there will be continued optimism regarding future potential of bitcoin.. b/c none of those price-points would be a bubble... unless going there too quickly... market cap at 2,000 would be less than $30 billion, and at 3,000 would be 45 billion and at 5k would be 75 billion. It is very likely that there would be much more room for BTC growth from any of those market cap points - unless some other cryptos are taking some of the market cap that would have otherwise gone to BTC.. WE definitely would need to consider the whole BTC environment before predicting whether BTC investors would be selling or HODLING.

Quote from: boumalo on March 22, 2014, 09:42:13 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 22, 2014, 09:19:42 PM

Quote from: boumalo on March 22, 2014, 08:01:17 PM

There are many reasons to be pessimistic but let me give you a few reasons to be optimistic :

More and more people are starting to understand that a big government is bad for them and protect the big corporations instead of protecting them; the freedom ideas are travelling fast on internet, everyone can get to understand them by watching a few videos of Stefan Molyneux : https://www.youtube.com/user/stefbot

For me, that is one of the most scary things: large numbers of people being convinced that governments and laws are bad, and therefore rejecting democracy and democratic politics. Historically, those people have always been instruments of parties that overthrow democratic governments to install opressive dictatorships.

Quote from: boumalo on March 22, 2014, 08:01:17 PM

Asia is developing and parts of Africa too

China and Southeast Asia seem to be improving, not sure about the rest. Parts of Africa are getting worse...

Big government has nothing to do with democracy; a big government is an opressive dictatorship that steal your money and your freedom

Such a huge portion of humanity has left poverty in the last decades

Dont get big government mixed up with big corporations... b/c you may think that government is taking your money when in fact the rich are failing and refusing to pay.. .which causes it to seem as if you are paying too much b/c you are too busy getting stolen from by big businesses, such as banks and oil companies and insurance companies... as several others that are getting subsidies rather than paying their fair share of taxes to contribute to the infrastructure.. and to various public goods that should NOT be given to the rich to benefit for free for these various public resources

Quote from: eiskalt on March 22, 2014, 09:50:11 PM

Quote from: boumalo on March 22, 2014, 09:42:13 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 22, 2014, 09:19:42 PM

Quote from: boumalo on March 22, 2014, 08:01:17 PM

There are many reasons to be pessimistic but let me give you a few reasons to be optimistic :

More and more people are starting to understand that a big government is bad for them and protect the big corporations instead of protecting them; the freedom ideas are travelling fast on internet, everyone can get to understand them by watching a few videos of Stefan Molyneux : https://www.youtube.com/user/stefbot

For me, that is one of the most scary things: large numbers of people being convinced that governments and laws are bad, and therefore rejecting democracy and democratic politics. Historically, those people have always been instruments of parties that overthrow democratic governments to install opressive dictatorships.

Quote from: boumalo on March 22, 2014, 08:01:17 PM

Asia is developing and parts of Africa too

China and Southeast Asia seem to be improving, not sure about the rest. Parts of Africa are getting worse...

Big government has nothing to do with democracy; a big government is an opressive dictatorship that steal your money and your freedom

Such a huge portion of humanity has left poverty in the last decades

Thing is: Big corporations bribing and holding hostage the referee. Then telling people, the referee is a bad guy.

Endgame: Referee gone, big corporations rule, people loose even more.

That is exactamente correct.... NEED anyone say more than this? I doubt it... Well said, Eiskalt!!

Quote from: PoolMinor on March 22, 2014, 10:40:28 PM

I expect a slow/steady rise in price until April 2, after that it could go further up past ~650 or go back down. Enjoy the ride.

What's happening on April 2?

Quote from: byronbb on March 22, 2014, 11:57:22 PM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 22, 2014, 11:37:43 PM

Finally he said, "But..." and there was a long pause as he was out of arguments. I interrupted and said, "What you're realizing in this moment is the paradigm shift. Western Union, out of business. Credit card companies, out of business. Banks? Well, we will see."

He recognized it could change all payments, credit, cash, checks, international, and that it could possibly put a hurting on bank fees. He held onto the fact banks still make loans. I didn't have the heart to tell him that might wane if they couldn't make absurd money from fees. He'll figure it out.

Credit cards aren't going anywhere. People live on credit.

NEVER say NEVER> I would say that it would take a minimum of 5 to 10 years to transition out of these kinds of credit institutions... but most likely in the 20-30 year time-frame... if we get success of crypto currencies.

Quote from: boumalo on March 23, 2014, 02:05:49 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 23, 2014, 01:38:39 AM

Quote from: threecats on March 22, 2014, 03:15:48 PM

Quote from: fonzie on March 22, 2014, 02:01:34 PM

Fuck me, i blame it on those 350ug acid tabs, but i´m feelin bullish for BTC again.
I hope i won´t get burned for all that love about BTC(price). Cheesy

Just bought 30 new coins.
If we go below 490$ i will never post again, promised.

better get your last posts in quick bud : -)

I am sure that there would be many more posters here, who would be willing to take a bet that we will NOT breach $490 within the next two weeks. Personally, I am ON THE FENCE about whether I would make such a bet. I am inclined to think that if we do breach $490, such a breach would be NO more than a few hours, and such breach would only come as a result of some major news or even some fake news that allows a certain level of panic and/or manipulation. I have considerable difficulties even with any belief that we would breach $510 in the next couple of weeks, without something dramatic occurring.

I don't know if we will brake the 510 or the 490 resistance but it doesn't seem that far away

But I think that the lower we go with the BTC price, the more and more difficult it will become to convince BTC holders to sell their coins.. absent some major news (whether real or NOT)... So, even though it does NOT seem far, the BTC holders resistance to sell becomes ever increasing as the price gets lower.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 23, 2014, 03:43:54 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 23, 2014, 03:24:00 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 22, 2014, 06:48:48 PM

Quote from: Adrian-x on March 22, 2014, 06:34:15 PM

Quote from: tarmi on March 22, 2014, 05:27:44 PM

He nailed one thing for sure: the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons.
We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat.

Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left.

That's the problem... The bears have squeezed about as much out of us as they can... They gonna have to come up with some more tricks, fud or false news to get us to stop squeezing our BTCs. I do have some fiat in reserve just in case the price drops more.. .my next buy point is at below $550 on Coinbase... and I question whether we are going to get to that price point... maybe I will have to panic buy at $570, instead?

I'd love to get another crack at sub $550, but I don't need to. I'll do just fine if we never see that level again. I try to position myself so that I am happy to go up down or sideways. It's a lot easier if you have a bunch of coinz that you've had for years. Otherwise I'd be panic buying now.

Yeah... I do NOT have the luxury of having old coins... especially since I started buying BTC in the end of November 2013. Nonetheless, I try to think strategically about this to keep buying as the price drops... and to a level that I perceive that I can afford. I suspect that at some point, hopefully soon, I will be in the black again.

Quote from: boumalo on March 23, 2014, 03:53:51 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 23, 2014, 03:34:27 AM

Quote from: windjc on March 22, 2014, 06:52:29 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 22, 2014, 06:48:48 PM

Quote from: Adrian-x on March 22, 2014, 06:34:15 PM

Quote from: tarmi on March 22, 2014, 05:27:44 PM

He nailed one thing for sure: the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons.
We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat.

Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left.

I think the first major resistance will be in the $530 range: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=526445.0

After that the daily 300 EMA is in the 470 area. Anything below that to $400 is going to be a major dogfight.

I expect the bulls to start putting up a real fight soon. This could continue lower for another month or two, but I think we are going to be running out of steam for the bears shortly.

If we see anything below $380, then I will celebrate with joy, because I have about $200k in fiat ready to go all in at any prices that gets that low.

The chances seem pretty high that you are going to be left behind if you are waiting for such pie in the sky numbers that are in the below $400 range. I will grant you that it is possible to go into the 400s.. possibly down to $470... but it is likely that the bulls will be fighting before it reaches $470.... unless it just happens to be a flash crash based on hyping news.

If you think that 450$ is a great buy and that the price will go up to high 4 digits within a year you are better off buying as much as much now

I don't have much BTC and I am afraid the price will jump up too soon before I can get more BTC

I started buying at $1,200 in late November 2013. Accordingly, I have been buying little by little over that time, and trying to buy as the price is dropping, rather than when the price is going up.

I started feeling much better about having sufficient skin in the game, once I had accumulated 10 BTC. Though of course, I would have felt even better if I could have acquired those first 10 BTC at a lower average price.... but I continued to invest, even after I had gotten the first 10 BTC.

Currently, I have about 39 BTC and my average buy-in price is $685..... so I feel fairly comfortable that I have even more skin in the game.. but surely it would be better to be in the black rather than the red... but personally, I do NOT feel any need to rush anything or to significantly change my investment strategy... of HODL and buy periodically.

Quote from: ActualAdviceBTC on March 23, 2014, 04:15:10 AM

everyone wondering why its dropping... isn't anyone surprised its still double what it was before the rally just a few months ago?
jeez u bulls are greedy; price will only go up when people have some reason to use it as a store of value (hiding money from the chinese govt, QE, bank runs etc)
not as some novelty currency with a nascent infrastructure.

also huobi just went down. ddos?

I doubt that a majority of the sentiments from the bulls in this thread are a product of greed, but rather a product of surprise and confusion in figuring that the BTC price should be higher by now... and yes< believe many of the bulls here have a pretty high expectation that BTC is going well over $1000 this year, and that is NOT based on greed but instead based on BTC fundamentals being relatively strong. Maybe some of the more "greedy" bulls, if you want to call us that, are more anxious for higher numbers - such as 3k or 5k or 10k by the end of the year or soon thereafter.

Surely, the odds become smaller based on expectations of a higher amount. I'm o.k. with anything above my average BTC investment price in the next couple of years; however, it would be even nicer if BTC prices go to the higher numbers, and any of them are reachable in the next 2 years, including higher amounts... 20K would NOT be out of the question in 2 years, but it may NOT be necessary in order for a BTC bull to feel comfortable with his/her rate of return.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 23, 2014, 04:31:20 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 23, 2014, 03:42:49 AM

what are your time lines for these various death of bitcoin predictions? Is bitcoin just going to suffer a slow death, or will its death be sudden, at some point?

I don't know.

On one hand, there are many people who invested millions in ancillary business (exchanges, funds, payment processors, mining hardware, ATMS...) and many owners of large hoards who may be willing to spend some million USDs in marketing and creating factoids just to keep Bitcoin alive for years. There are also many faithful who will probably stick to it no matter what.

I read that Warren Buffett thinks that Bitcoin will be around for 10 years still. Maybe.

On the other hand, there are many more BTC off market than on-market. If their owners decide to dump, the price may fall so much that many of those ancillary businesses would fail, and miners may abandon BTC for greener coins. Or the US government may decide that it does not like bitcoin (BTC specifically, or all private cryptocoins, or any cryptocoins). Or the bitcoin scene may become so polluted with scams and crimes that the public will be turned off at the very name. Or whatever...

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 23, 2014, 03:42:49 AM

The most painful under your hypothetical scenario would be if the BTC price were to just slowly keep going down while sucking more and more of us bulls into buying.. and then all of our lives' savings would be in bitcoin, when it goes belly up?

So you are here in this thread to try to save as many of us as you can, while there is is still hope to save some of us?

I feel a moral and professional obligation to warn the general public about the risks of investing in bitcoin, and about the false or exaggerated claims that many bitcoin "salesmen" of all sorts are still making. I would feel that my time has not been wasted if I can prevent at least one person from being scammed this way.

I am not concerned with adult and mentally capable people who still choose to invest in Bitcoin, knowing perfectly well what they are doing (as probably is the case of most people in this thread). They must know that there is no objective way to assign probabilities of "success" (by any definition) or expected future prices to Bitcoin, so that they are gambling in a game with undefined odds. What advice or help could I give to those people? What outcome could I wish for them?

I was surprised to see on this forum (not this thread) people openly asking for "good Ponzi schemes" to invest in. Well, as long as all investors are aware that something is a Ponzi, I suppose that it can be considered a kind of gambling, so it is their problem, their money, and their fun. What is not OK is people who know it is a Ponzi trying to lure new investors without telling them that.

Actually, I appreciate your response here. It makes more sense than some of the other ones that I read.

Regarding Buffet, yep, he is pretty bearish on bitcoin... but you never know with him, he may begin to invest on the side... though these things may NOT really matter too much for a guy like Buffet who has already made a lot of dough and doesnt necessarily need to deviate from what he knows in order to continue to make a killing.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 23, 2014, 04:47:48 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 23, 2014, 04:12:17 AM

There are scumbags everywhere, and probably the ratios are NOT any worse in the bitcoin scene as compared with banking or other industries.

It seems that I have not been clear enough on this point....

There are scumbags everywhere, in the banks and governments too. What is different about making the Satoshi Blockchain into the basis of a crypto-currency economy is that a few thousand people, including many scumbags, will start out OWNING all the money in the world --- as oposed to just having the oligopolistic privilege of storing, handling, managing, and transmitting it.

I have seen some of your other posts on this particular topic, and your thesis in this regard seems ill-founded. There may be some truth that some less than savory characters may have been first adopters of bitcoin, and potentially these less than savory characters would profit the most if they are able to HODL their BTC while the price continues to rise. However, in another sense this seems like a fantasy world problem that you are characterizing into bitcoin b/c in NO time in the near future is bitcoin going to be the sole currency or the sole holder of value.. and these kinds of developments, if they were to occur, would take 5-10 years minimum... b/c we are going to have various other currencies and assets that will hold and transmit value.

And, surely early adopters would become newly rich by this whole BTC scheme, yet there still seems to be opportunities for status quo rich ( or the old traditional) rich to buy into bicoin at various price points - especially once they recognize bitcoin as a decent hedge investment. These transitions will take a while as well, and surely we cannot be very certain, at this point, how these kinds of transfer of wealth are going to play out.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 23, 2014, 04:47:48 AM

I have not looked hard into Auroracoin, but from what has been said here it seems to be an improvement over BTC in this regard: It will distribute some of the money evenly to all Icelanders, instead of only to miners. Of course, if some private individuals will still retain a large fraction of all the AURs, it will still have the same problem of Bitcoin or any altcoin: those people will end up grabbing a large slice of the Icelanders' total wealth, totally out of proportion to their contribution to the society.

From my understanding, I believe that Auroracoin has more centralization problems than BTC.

Quote from: Protoverse on March 23, 2014, 05:15:23 AM

I'm kind of on the fence about buying any right now. Should I? At current price, it'd take me 2 months to buy 1 BTC.

Just buy .15 BTC per week. Or measure the quantity in Fiat how much you buy each week. Say $75 per week or something like that.

Then when the BTC price is high, you buy less and when the price is low you buy more.

There are various ways to get started investing into BTC whether weekly or daily amounts or once a month.

I personally believe that if you are just getting started then better to invest daily.... let's say for example $10 to $20 per day until you acquire a comfortable amount (but the amount and the time interval may vary depending on through what service you are buying), then maybe switch to weekly, but the key is to get started with whatever budget you have and whether you can time your buying of BTC during lower prices.. and then little by little, you will acquire a pool of BTC.

Quote from: cbutters on March 23, 2014, 05:23:15 AM

Quote from: podyx on March 23, 2014, 05:12:18 AM

thought this was fitting

I'm bullish, but wer'e down a lot of percentage so far this year, and its Almost Q2, so I don't see how this is fitting. Huh

Now... talk to me in July and it will probably be accurate.

One year is March 2013 to March 2014 - NOT December 2013 to March 2014... that is a different story.

NOW, if you are measuring from July 2013 to July 2014, then that is still to be determined.

Quote from: byronbb on March 23, 2014, 05:41:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 23, 2014, 05:34:05 AM

Quote from: byronbb on March 22, 2014, 11:57:22 PM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 22, 2014, 11:37:43 PM

Finally he said, "But..." and there was a long pause as he was out of arguments. I interrupted and said, "What you're realizing in this moment is the paradigm shift. Western Union, out of business. Credit card companies, out of business. Banks? Well, we will see."

He recognized it could change all payments, credit, cash, checks, international, and that it could possibly put a hurting on bank fees. He held onto the fact banks still make loans. I didn't have the heart to tell him that might wane if they couldn't make absurd money from fees. He'll figure it out.

Credit cards aren't going anywhere. People live on credit.

NEVER say NEVER> I would say that it would take a minimum of 5 to 10 years to transition out of these kinds of credit institutions... but most likely in the 20-30 year time-frame... if we get success of crypto currencies.

Success of crypto = no more credit? Or do you mean crypto loans will eventually be extended?

I think that we are going to have both.... at least for a while.

There are also going to continue to be ways to exploit people and to keep them down.. and that will take a while to develop.

I don't think any of us know how all of these dynamics will play out in the event that crypto were successful..... on a global level.... Personally, I do NOT want to rack my brain with such speculations b/c I believe that there are so many varying possibilities... Maybe at some point if we branch in a certain direction, then we can begin to narrow down speculations. At this point, the more near future is just for bitcoin to become more widely adopted in a more and more ways by more and more people and businesses and governments... So in that regard, we have to crawl before we can walk and walk before we can run.

Quote from: PoolMinor on March 23, 2014, 07:01:16 AM

Semantics, the term "this year" means just that (2014) it does not mean a year period between March to March. So as we read the text on the picture that says this year we should understand.

You are right about the picture saying "this year" which is ambiguous and accordingly needs to be understood in context. Also, the text of the picture seems to be an exaggeration and quite less than specific b/c it does NOT exactly describe from when it is measuring. Nonetheless, in order to understand the overall point of the picture, then it would need to be read as within the past year... b/c if you look at only this calendar year, then you get something like $720 to $560 - which is nearly negative 30%.... .. not an increase, but a decrease

Then in March of 2013... BTC price went from $30 to $100, so depending upon which measuring point is going to give varying statistics. I doubt that the text of the picture was attempting to be accurate in that regard, and certainly, I would have phrased it differently had I been the author. But the nature of a joke sometimes is to exaggerate and to make fun of specifics... like to give such exact percentage numbers without providing an exact measuring time (and hour and minute)

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 23, 2014, 07:17:01 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 23, 2014, 06:33:17 AM

I have seen some of your other posts on this particular topic, and your thesis in this regard seems ill-founded. There may be some truth that some less than savory characters may have been first adopters of bitcoin, and potentially these less than savory characters would profit the most if they are able to HODL their BTC while the price continues to rise.

The early adopters are not necessarily "scumbags", just that I do not see why the world would agree giving them such a large slice of their wealth.

But there are undoubtedly many bad guys among them. The MtGOX thief alone got hold of 600,000 BTC, which is 5% of all existing bitcoins -- hence 2.5% of all the money in the world in that extreme scenario. The SilkRoad operator is claiming 173,000 BTC that were seized by the FBI as being his property. There have been already a couple dozen smaller versions and variants of MtGOX, where thieves and scammers got away with various amounts of BTC, proably adding to hundreds of thousands. (The BitcoinRain "theft" here in Brazil, for example, slurped up over 15,000 BTC from its investors.) It seems likely that 10% or more of all existing bitcoins were acquired by criminal means.

You are speculating again a lot with your facts, b/c the story about the missing bitcoins is still developing regarding GOX. But let's assume for the sake of argument that 10% of bitcoins, at some point was acquired by criminals. Does this assumption also mean that they are still holding those 10%, or have they already liquidated all or some of those holdings? I would imagine that criminals do want to profit at some point, while they are still living, so just holding onto bitcoins is NOT going to do them any good. But even if they do hold the bitcoins, so what? Are they going to manipulate the bitcoin market with that 10%..? What is the fear exactly? Holding 10% does NOT give them any special power over bitcoin, except in a world where you are speculating about some plot that they may have to undermine bitcoin rather than to merely make some money off of bitcoin.

If the thieves already got away with the money, then so what? We cannot catch them, they have crossed the border to mexico.. or whereever... and they are free... Same with dollars.. if the bank robbers got away, and they are living in the bahamas and sipping Pina colatas, then what can you do, you do not have the evidence... that does not undermine bitcoin, if they already got away.

Quote from: schizoid on March 23, 2014, 07:33:00 AM

On March 23, 2013 bitcoin was $70, so it's only up 700% YoY.

Part of my point was that the joker, Podyx, was being imprecise in some parts and then precise in other parts as part of the joke.. .so when we try to call him on the technicalities or to quibble about the various technical mistakes, then we become part of the joke.. b/c we did NOT get it.. he was exaggerating to make various humorous points.. Whether we appreciate Podyx's humor or not.

Quote from: schizoid on March 23, 2014, 07:57:03 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 23, 2014, 07:43:43 AM

Quote from: schizoid on March 23, 2014, 07:33:00 AM

On March 23, 2013 bitcoin was $70, so it's only up 700% YoY.

Part of my point was that the joker, Podyx, was being imprecise in some parts and then precise in other parts as part of the joke.. .so when we try to call him on the technicalities or to quibble about the various technical mistakes, then we become part of the joke.. b/c we did NOT get it.. he was exaggerating to make various humorous points.. Whether we appreciate Podyx's humor or not.

I got the joke. I just decided to do the math because I'm bored.

I figured that you got the joke... b/c you came in to the conversation later.. and did not initially raise it... but only brought it up after the further posts...

Podyx is probably laughing his ass off to get such an effect from a silly ass picture...

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 23, 2014, 03:02:12 PM

And 10% of all the money that exists being owned (note, "being owned", not just "having passed through the hands of") thieves and scammers is another. Although it is only a detail of the bigger problem of 100% of all the money that exists being owned by a few thousand people.

YOU are really prone to exaggeration. Let's assume for the sake of argument, that 100,000 people own all of the bitcoins in the world.. so what??? either they have an infrastructure that is a circle of 100,000 people or they expand to the 7 billion people.. and then once they expand to the 7 billion, then those 7 billion will have some btc, too, no? So where is the problem, exactly? profit of the 100,000?

Quote from: Richy_T on March 23, 2014, 04:01:26 PM

Quote from: Threebits on March 23, 2014, 12:47:26 PM

I personally feel that all business startups are Ponzi schemes, say computer, internet, etc. Ponzi is the pattern how the universe operates. It's not a matter of good or bad but a matter of true or false. A Ponzi scheme can only be true by more and more people joining in to the extent that whole community can not live without it. I hope I'm correct here.

No, a Ponzi must *always* have more people joining to continue. Bitcoin is not yet self-sustaining but would be able to form a stable economy with a small proportion of the population it could eventually reach. Startups likewise. If a stock actually pays dividends, it doesn't even have to rely on the "greater fool" thing to benefit stock holders. Unfortunately government tax policy discourages this.

Richy_T: I like your straight-forward explanation of how a ponzi scheme is different from other kinds of investments... and yes, with a Ponzi scheme.. the payout is so high that the remainder of the investment pool is continuing to go further in the red b/c the payouts are so high and the money in the system is NOT working b/c it is NOT being invested nor earning.

With bitcoin, there is a certain need to expand the number of users at least at the rate of the new coin production (which is currently a little more than 10% per year), and the value of BTC would likely become more stagnant if the pool of people in BTC remained at a set amount (let's say 100,000 plus 10% per year). But even in that scenario of a stagnant user base, bitcoin would increase in value relative to fiat b/c the fiat is continuing to become less valuable and infrastructure is continuing to be built around BTC.

Definitely, I'm gonna have to use your straight-forward explanation when that Ponzi term is thrown around willy-nilly to attempt to apply, when it does NOT.

There is a certain level of reality that is helpful to perpetuate the Ponzi scheme myth for btc - including the fact that there are currently about 10% more coins every year, for the next few years, until that production rate is reduced again in 2017, right? Also, the value of bitcoin goes up more, if the user base expands more rapidly than 10% per year, but those facts does NOT make BTC a ponzi scheme merely b/c of the facts that the expansion of the user base causes increasing appreciation in how much btc users will be willing to pay for bitcoins.

Quote from: aminorex on March 23, 2014, 04:17:38 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 23, 2014, 03:02:12 PM

it is only a detail of the bigger problem of 100% of all the money that exists being owned by a few thousand people.

Again, this is a much more severe problem in USD than in BTC. BTC helps to solve this problem as well, because the thousands who own most of the BTC are largely non-overlapping with the thousands who own most of the USD. The aggregate GINI is better as a result.

OM f'in G!!!!!! Are you suggesting some level of redistribution of wealth? OM f'in G, this will mean the end of the world as we know it, no?

Actually, I am NOT very worried about redistribution of wealth b/c I get the sense that the rich always figure out ways to manipulate and co-opt various innovations and institutions in order that there is NOT too much redistribution of wealth and historical inequities continue. The same is likely to be true with bitcoin - b/c even the traditional rich, once they recognize value in btc, are going to find ways to profit off of btc disproportionately to regular joe schmoes. At the same time, various innovations play out differently, and I suspect that there may be some ways that the dynamics in bitcoin will play out a bit differently (but NOT to a large degree), and some redistribution of wealth is going to take place, in spite of status quo rich manipulations that will occur... and likely already have been occurring, to some degree.

Also, I suspect that the status quo rich are going to attempt to drag out status quo systems as long as they can in order to continue to be able to continue to exploit poor people around the world for as long as they can get away with it.

Quote from: Zapffe on March 23, 2014, 04:25:06 PM

Quote from: aminorex on March 23, 2014, 02:49:45 PM

There is only one riskless profitable trade at present: Buy on bfx and sell on another exchange. The 563 seller appears to have infinite coins. For more than 24 hours now one person has had total control over the Btcusd rate worldwide. And that person is evidently a self-destructive lunatic.

Yes, he must be a self-destructive lunatic, because there is no way that the price is going down more then that.
No way I tell you... No way! No..no..no..nonononononono noooooooo!

There was a bet earlier in this thread for .5BTC about btc going to below $530 within the week.

From your comment, I can see which side of that bet you would be on.... but then my question to you, is would you bet on the level of your passion and confidence?

Personally, I am NOT that certain about anything when it comes to BTC prices, especially in the short term.

IN the long term I am gambling that BTC prices going to go up in value more than it goes down, and accordingly, I am hoping to some extent that I will be able to make more money by investing in BTC than I would make if I were to put that same money into various stock market index funds... generally on stock market index funds with dollar cost averaging I have been making 3 to 10% per year.. overall.. maybe an average of around 6%.. yet I know if some people are smart about their stocks, and they can do much better than 6%.

With BTC, I am happy with any profit, or even breaking even, yet I would be more happy if I am able to achieve a greater return than what I would have gotten through my traditional index funds.

Quote from: boumalo on March 23, 2014, 10:24:45 PM

Quote from: bassclef on March 23, 2014, 07:42:06 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 23, 2014, 07:14:08 PM

Oh, we are back to discussing my person... looks like someone really needs that lesson.

Well, you put yourself out there.

You post in the busiest thread in the forum (and this thread only), are quite opinionated to the contrary, and don't own any coins. People questioning your motives is going to be normal. And since we seem to be guinea pigs within some data collection experiment of yours, yeah, your not going to make many friends.

We need some people that don't believe in Bitcoin and that are very sceptic, when they argument well it can be interesting and it is healthy; when they don't they are just trolls

Actually, you have a very good point.... b/c it is a lot easier to learn from someone who backs up his/her claims (even if we may NOT agree with those claims) rather than someone who is just spewing conclusions without any justification for how come s/he arrived at such conclusion(s).

Quote from: roslinpl on March 24, 2014, 12:35:59 AM

Quote from: aminorex on March 24, 2014, 12:21:30 AM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 23, 2014, 11:55:07 PM

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/447836584554266624

^ If this was bullish news the price would've gone up before the news became public.

Tweets are not news. They are rumors.

Agree ... and we should not just follow every rumor that we hear ... or read..

As for now... price is upredictable as it was before

When I saw Coinbase was hovering around $557, I thought, oh shit, it is getting down close to my next BTC buy-in price (which is currently meant to be below $550 - b/c the last time I bought was at $584). So I was playing around with typing in random quantities of BTC to their site just to allow the BTC prices to reload, and then the box flashed $551; however, my desired quantity of BTC was NOT ready to go or I would have clicked buy. Then i corrected the proper quantity, and the price reverted to $558.27... so I did NOT buy.

Sometimes, I would just like to get it over with and to just buy.. so that I do NOT have to think about these kinds of matters anymore , until the price drops to my next buy-in point (which would probably be around $529 - depending upon how long it takes to get there... seems doubtful, though... )... And so sometimes I will buy at a few extra dollars per BTC, just to get the purchase out of the way.

I have found the price on Bitstamp to usually be a few dollars above Coinbase, yet, generally, Coinbase's price does NOT fluctuate as widely as Bitstamp. I complained to them once about this and accused them of arbitrage.. something like that.... Anyhow, every once in a while when BTC price is very eradic, then Coinbase will be less than Bitstamp... Go figure!!!

It would be NICE if Coinbase would allow for the placement of ORDERs, but I suppose that may cause additional technical difficulties for their set-up.

Ok.. so now the Coinbase price is hovering between $552 and $556 while the Bitstamp's hovering between $552 and $548... Seems like, if I were to wait it out, we are going to get down to $549 on Coinbase.. Not sure if I can wait that long... . My frequent problem, however, is as soon as I click buy, then the price really starts to go down and then I am kicking myself for NOT waiting it out a little longer... Can never tell for sure.. how low will she go??? limbo...land... ?

Quote from: BitChick on March 24, 2014, 02:15:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 24, 2014, 02:10:04 AM

Quote from: roslinpl on March 24, 2014, 12:35:59 AM

Quote from: aminorex on March 24, 2014, 12:21:30 AM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 23, 2014, 11:55:07 PM

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/447836584554266624

^ If this was bullish news the price would've gone up before the news became public.

Tweets are not news. They are rumors.

Agree ... and we should not just follow every rumor that we hear ... or read..

As for now... price is upredictable as it was before

When I saw Coinbase was hovering around $557, I thought, oh shit, it is getting down close to my next BTC buy-in price (which is currently meant to be below $550 - b/c the last time I bought was at $584). So I was playing around with typing in random quantities of BTC to their site just to allow the BTC prices to reload, and then the box flashed $551; however, my desired quantity of BTC was NOT ready to go or I would have clicked buy. Then i corrected the proper quantity, and the price reverted to $558.27... so I did NOT buy.

Sometimes, I would just like to get it over with and to just buy.. so that I do NOT have to think about these kinds of matters anymore , until the price drops to my next buy-in point (which would probably be around $529 - depending upon how long it takes to get there... seems doubtful, though... )... And so sometimes I will buy at a few extra dollars per BTC, just to get the purchase out of the way.

I have found the price on Bitstamp to usually be a few dollars above Coinbase, yet, generally, Coinbase's price does NOT fluctuate as widely as Bitstamp. I complained to them once about this and accused them of arbitrage.. something like that.... Anyhow, every once in a while when BTC price is very eradic, then Coinbase will be less than Bitstamp... Go figure!!!

It would be NICE if Coinbase would allow for the placement of ORDERs, but I suppose that may cause additional technical difficulties for their set-up.

Ok.. so now the Coinbase price is hovering between $552 and $556 while the Bitstamp's hovering between $552 and $548... Seems like, if I were to wait it out, we are going to get down to $549 on Coinbase.. Not sure if I can wait that long... . My frequent problem, however, is as soon as I click buy, then the price really starts to go down and then I am kicking myself for NOT waiting it out a little longer... Can never tell for sure.. how low will she go??? limbo...land... ?

Will it matter if you bought at $549 or $552 when the price gets to $1000 or more? Wink

I know for day-traders it can make a difference but for holders it really is not that big of a deal.

I think now is a great time to buy BTW and I just threw some money in for the first time in several weeks. Grin

By the way, I did pull the trigger at $550.19..... so I can now relax for a week or two... unless we start getting in the $525-$530 range, then I will be itching to buy again (I really do NOT expect that low price, but I did NOT expect to be below $600, either).

Actually, in the big picture you are probably correct that a few dollars here and there will NOT matter too much, when we get into the bigger numbers (well that is assuming we are going to get into those bigger numbers), and that is part of the problem with mulling over the situation.. It's time-consuming.. and maybe for naught... .... Currently, I am trying to bring my average buy-in price down.. and I just like to set my numbers ahead of time so that I guide and pace myself.. within my budget and attempting to maximize getting quantity BTC.. but hedging my risk to the best that I can...... b/c I want to buy while I have a chance, but I also want to save some fiat in the event that the price goes down an additional $20-30 more....

Maybe i am a little more nervous about this whole thing, also, b/c my initial starting buy-in price was $1,200.. and the price has been downwardly trajectory since i started, and I have been ratcheting my numbers, ever since I started to try to bring down my average buy-in price, within my budget.... If I had NOT started at the ATH, my situation would be much better and likely being closer to being in the black, rather than being in the red. Currently, I am at an average $682 buy in price.... which is much more comfortable than a $1,200 average buy in price... that's for sure.

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 24, 2014, 02:35:55 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 24, 2014, 02:19:59 AM

Quote from: BitChick on March 24, 2014, 02:15:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 24, 2014, 02:10:04 AM

Quote from: roslinpl on March 24, 2014, 12:35:59 AM

Quote from: aminorex on March 24, 2014, 12:21:30 AM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 23, 2014, 11:55:07 PM

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/447836584554266624

^ If this was bullish news the price would've gone up before the news became public.

Tweets are not news. They are rumors.

Agree ... and we should not just follow every rumor that we hear ... or read..

As for now... price is upredictable as it was before

When I saw Coinbase was hovering around $557, I thought, oh shit, it is getting down close to my next BTC buy-in price (which is currently meant to be below $550 - b/c the last time I bought was at $584). So I was playing around with typing in random quantities of BTC to their site just to allow the BTC prices to reload, and then the box flashed $551; however, my desired quantity of BTC was NOT ready to go or I would have clicked buy. Then i corrected the proper quantity, and the price reverted to $558.27... so I did NOT buy.

Sometimes, I would just like to get it over with and to just buy.. so that I do NOT have to think about these kinds of matters anymore , until the price drops to my next buy-in point (which would probably be around $529 - depending upon how long it takes to get there... seems doubtful, though... )... And so sometimes I will buy at a few extra dollars per BTC, just to get the purchase out of the way.

I have found the price on Bitstamp to usually be a few dollars above Coinbase, yet, generally, Coinbase's price does NOT fluctuate as widely as Bitstamp. I complained to them once about this and accused them of arbitrage.. something like that.... Anyhow, every once in a while when BTC price is very eradic, then Coinbase will be less than Bitstamp... Go figure!!!

It would be NICE if Coinbase would allow for the placement of ORDERs, but I suppose that may cause additional technical difficulties for their set-up.

Ok.. so now the Coinbase price is hovering between $552 and $556 while the Bitstamp's hovering between $552 and $548... Seems like, if I were to wait it out, we are going to get down to $549 on Coinbase.. Not sure if I can wait that long... . My frequent problem, however, is as soon as I click buy, then the price really starts to go down and then I am kicking myself for NOT waiting it out a little longer... Can never tell for sure.. how low will she go??? limbo...land... ?

Will it matter if you bought at $549 or $552 when the price gets to $1000 or more? Wink

I know for day-traders it can make a difference but for holders it really is not that big of a deal.

I think now is a great time to buy BTW and I just threw some money in for the first time in several weeks. Grin

BitChick is right, BitChick is always right... Tongue

but i'd say buy in at 500 600 700 even 1005/coin!! wont make much deference in 20years when bitcoin is processing a health % of world GDP and growing,

i'm sure its gonna happen if not bitcoin it will be another Bitcoin tech currency.

I truly believe bitcoin will be the best performing asset this year next year and ever other year after that till it completely takes over!

like what did you think was gana happen USD Fiat, Dirty Fiat was gana win out of Crypto in the long hule WWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAATTT lol no DUded Crtopto Vs Fiat is no centest!

in the long haul.

my father inlaw wants to invest a few $ and he asking me about the alts that ive been taking about.... and i tell him ya alts a gr8 but, its not doge coin thats being appected by all the mecahes its not LTC thats gana IPO on wall street its bitcoin! invest in bitcoin...

1BTC = 100,000,000 satoshi's ITS BETTER THEN DOGE COINS! Grin

ya for the long haul you wana be holding a shit tone of Bits not coins... Grin

Hey Adam... I appreciate that you get fairly specific in your outlandish comments... and largely, I agree with a lot of the sentiments of your projections and my agreement is NOT merely ditto, ditto.. but also b/c I have been doing quite a bit of reading about this bitcoin thing-a-ma-jiggy.

Anyhow, what would you estimate some of the range of the BTC market cap possibilities would be in the 1 year, 2 year, 5 year and 10 year time-frames. Ultimately, I am curious about how you would frame your projections.... and we are just shooting the shit here... but if you could give me your best projections, I would appreciate it. If you are reluctant, I could go first..... but you seem to be more experienced with bitcoin than me.. at least you've been into it longer than me...

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 24, 2014, 02:49:28 AM

Quote from: roslinpl on March 24, 2014, 12:35:59 AM

Quote from: aminorex on March 24, 2014, 12:21:30 AM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 23, 2014, 11:55:07 PM

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/447836584554266624

^ If this was bullish news the price would've gone up before the news became public.

Tweets are not news. They are rumors.

Agree ... and we should not just follow every rumor that we hear ... or read..

As for now... price is upredictable as it was before

And the price seems very predictable. It has been going down for months.

I had to get a really big chuckle out of this post... I am NOT sure why.. but maybe it was your avatar or maybe it was the seriousness of your unsubstantiated prediction... ... If you choose your time frame from beginning of December 2013... then yes of course.. and you will be correct for quite a while to selectively and arbitrary choose that as your starting point... .. it is like a straw man assertion... from a dogbird... no hating.....

Quote from: mooncake on March 24, 2014, 03:11:33 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 24, 2014, 02:35:55 AM

i'm sure its gonna happen if not bitcoin it will be another Bitcoin tech currency.

I have been thinking about this. Newer alt coins claim they are better than bitcoin, and rightly so in terms of asic-resistance and faster confirmation. It is also possible a globally central financial organisation like IMF decides to issue its cryptocurrency in future. Therefore, it is possible for bitcoin to be overtaken by its successor.

The interesting part is how events will play out during the transition period. The extreme case is where bitcoin value immediately drops to 0, while its successor replaces it. This is certainly unacceptable to bitcoin holders. Another scenario is where both bitcoin and its successor co-exist for a specified period, while preparation begins for the successor to replace bitcoin completely.

Any thoughts?

I think that such a succession will NOT be planned, as your hypothetical seems to suggest; however, I think that we would see it coming in such a way that we would be able to transfer our BTC assets from BTC into the new coin... without taking too heavy of a beating.. unless we wait too long before we were to accept such transition that ends up being inevitable .. and some people see the writing on the wall early and others are more difficult to convince.. and still have their my space accounts...

Quote from: mooncake on March 24, 2014, 03:18:33 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 24, 2014, 03:07:59 AM

Maybe i am a little more nervous about this whole thing, also, b/c my initial starting buy-in price was $1,200.. and the price has been downwardly trajectory since i started, and I have been ratcheting my numbers, ever since I started to try to bring down my average buy-in price, within my budget.... If I had NOT started at the ATH, my situation would be much better and likely being closer to being in the black, rather than being in the red. Currently, I am at an average $682 buy in price.... which is much more comfortable than a $1,200 average buy in price... that's for sure.

If you are convinced in the extrapolation, you will be fine.

Actually, I agree with some kind of a priceline similar to the graph that you provided, and I suppose my long-term bullish sentiment regarding bitcoin is why I got in when and how I did.

I had heard about bitcoin, but I had NOT really given it very much thought, so I did NOT really know details.

Then in about early to mid November 2013, I had gotten into an investment and quasi-political discussion with someone who had bought about 60 or so bitcoins when the price was $30. He was bragging to some extent about how smart of an investment bitcoin was, and that I needed to hedge against the dollar. Actually, some of his understandings about investments seemed to be misplaced but he was very passionate about bitcoin. I knew that my current investment portfolio was in need of hedging regarding the dollar..

While he continued to brag about that the fact that bitcoin had gone up so much that it was going to continue to go up. I certainly took those kinds of claims with a grain of salt b/c I have this sense that if something has been going up a lot, then that may NOT be a good time to invest in that particular asset class.

Therefore, I began to read up on bitcoin over the next couple of weeks.. while the price was continuing to go up. That is why I ended up buying in the end of November, but I was convinced that the fundamentals of bitcoin was making it a good investment from the materials I had been reading, but I was NOT necessarily convinced that it would be a good short-term investment.. in the end of November 2013...

That is why I started my exploration of BTC with only $1,500 off of localbitcoins.com, which at the time was about 1.24 BTC... and little by little from there on.. even though I had more than $20K that I could have invested, I did NOT want to put in my total fiat at that time.... b/c at that point, I was still trying to learn about the buying and selling vehicles process, as well... and I was skeptical about getting into something too heavily that had just had an amazing run in November 2013.

Maybe as soon as one or two weeks, we will be in the $700 territory, again... .. but yes it is possible that we could linger in these lower numbers for weeks or even months.. due to the little amount of money that is needed to manipulate such a segment with such a small market cap... BTC is only at 7 billion currently... and probably less than 10% of that is being traded or otherwise actively used.

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 24, 2014, 03:27:27 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 24, 2014, 03:15:40 AM

Hey Adam... I appreciate that you get fairly specific in your outlandish comments... and largely, I agree with a lot of the sentiments of your projections and my agreement is NOT merely ditto, ditto.. but also b/c I have been doing quite a bit of reading about this bitcoin thing-a-ma-jiggy.

Anyhow, what would you estimate some of the range of the BTC market cap possibilities would be in the 1 year, 2 year, 5 year and 10 year time-frames. Ultimately, I am curious about how you would frame your projections.... and we are just shooting the shit here... but if you could give me your best projections, I would appreciate it. If you are reluctant, I could go first..... but you seem to be more experienced with bitcoin than me.. at least you've been into it longer than me...

all i can say is bitcoin is a crazy bull and its Up and Down CRAAAZzzzy Dride but the Long Term is very bullish,

could be next year its 250 then the next 3000

could 5000
could be 100,000 in 3 years

lik it could be 98$ in 3 years then make a crazy comeback in 2020 and start a 12 year bull run to 1,000,000$ a coin,....

no one knows but most people agree butcoin long term is up up up

Even though you are all over the place with your prediction, I am feeling it to some extent. My ranges would have been a little more narrow... but generally an upward trajectory.. I doubt that we are going to have as many crazy ass wild swings once bitcoin is more established and once it has a larger market cap... but we may be in for a few heavy duty challenges that will truly attempt to undermine the whole thing, along with prices going down to accompany such attacks on bitcoin.

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 24, 2014, 03:33:59 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 24, 2014, 03:27:27 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 24, 2014, 03:15:40 AM

Hey Adam... I appreciate that you get fairly specific in your outlandish comments... and largely, I agree with a lot of the sentiments of your projections and my agreement is NOT merely ditto, ditto.. but also b/c I have been doing quite a bit of reading about this bitcoin thing-a-ma-jiggy.

Anyhow, what would you estimate some of the range of the BTC market cap possibilities would be in the 1 year, 2 year, 5 year and 10 year time-frames. Ultimately, I am curious about how you would frame your projections.... and we are just shooting the shit here... but if you could give me your best projections, I would appreciate it. If you are reluctant, I could go first..... but you seem to be more experienced with bitcoin than me.. at least you've been into it longer than me...

all i can say is bitcoin is a crazy bull and its Up and Down CRAAAZzzzy Dride but the Long Term is very bullish,

could be next year its 250 then the next 3000

could 5000
could be 100,000 in 3 years

lik it could be 98$ in 3 years then make a crazy comeback in 2020 and start a 12 year bull run to 1,000,000$ a coin,....

no one knows but most people agree butcoin long term is up up up

lol so drunk can hardly type

BUY BUY BUY
Grin

YOU are still making sense though.. .Just dont fall asleep on the SELL, SELL, SELL button - b/c then we will all be in trouble. Cheesy

Quote from: mooncake on March 24, 2014, 04:03:38 AM

Quote from: aminorex on March 24, 2014, 03:23:29 AM

Centralization is not a feature. It means the currency supply will be manipulated to make you poor and the manipulators wealthy.

The only point I agree to. Imagine today IMF announces its cryptocurrency and all the governments support it, many bitcoin use cases like remittance will be irrelevant. A few like inflation-resistance will still be relevant though.

Mooncake... Is your point that people could gravitate over to an IMF -type coint.. yeah right.. no one is really going to have confidence in any government sponsored coin... so they would definitely have to be manipulative, tricky and coercive in order to get people to adopt it.. but NO real people are really gonna trust it.. so bitcoin will still win over some kind of government sponsored alt coin.

Quote from: aminorex on March 24, 2014, 04:39:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 24, 2014, 04:08:15 AM

Quote from: mooncake on March 24, 2014, 03:18:33 AM

if you are convinced in the extrapolation, you will be fine.

Extrapolating against a factor of complex or questionable relationship to the dependent variable is a fairly weak case. That's why I prefer to extrapolate on the basis of the moving average over the number of active wallets in the past 24 hours. This is a sound number, and the dependency relationship is adequately explained by metcalfe's law. The mechanisms of value growth are more directly understood in the latter case.

I don't really know what it takes to draw lines but I see predictions all over the place depending on the starting point and which points are considered to be significant in establishing the angle(s). So, do you have a graph that shows number of active wallets within the past 24 hours, 1 or 2 years?

Quote from: mooncake on March 24, 2014, 06:29:16 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 24, 2014, 04:29:07 AM

Mooncake... Is your point that people could gravitate over to an IMF -type coint.. yeah right.. no one is really going to have confidence in any government sponsored coin... so they would definitely have to be manipulative, tricky and coercive in order to get people to adopt it.. but NO real people are really gonna trust it.. so bitcoin will still win over some kind of government sponsored alt coin.

Look at it objectively. There are broadly 3 groups of people with regards to bitcoin perception.
1. Do not know or can't be bothered;
2. Aware of it and stay on the sideline; and
3. True believer.
Now, assign a % to each of the group based on their relative number proportion.

Suppose IMF introduces its cryptocurrency tomorrow, only (3) will not support. Is the % of (3) sufficiently significant to be meaningful?

FYI, in the 1940s, the closest to a global central currency called the bancor was proposed though not implemented.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor
This evolved to Special drawing rights in the 1970s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_drawing_rights
In the future, can there be a global central currency? What would be the driving factors? What would be its form?

Granted you make a good point about different kinds of people and that some people will gravitate towards something with governmental backing, legitimacy, security... or whatever...

Now, if we are getting into the idea of a global currency, that is another story.. and likely a story of last ditch desperation rather than meaningful intent. Countries like the USA are NOT going to agree to a global currency.. unless they have to and they see NO other choice, and only then would such choice be kicking and screaming or b/c they have some special ability to manipulate it...

Quote from: stan.distortion on March 24, 2014, 10:12:51 AM

Quote from: mooncake on March 24, 2014, 06:29:16 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 24, 2014, 04:29:07 AM

Mooncake... Is your point that people could gravitate over to an IMF -type coint.. yeah right.. no one is really going to have confidence in any government sponsored coin... so they would definitely have to be manipulative, tricky and coercive in order to get people to adopt it.. but NO real people are really gonna trust it.. so bitcoin will still win over some kind of government sponsored alt coin.

Look at it objectively. There are broadly 3 groups of people with regards to bitcoin perception.
1. Do not know or can't be bothered;
2. Aware of it and stay on the sideline; and
3. True believer.
Now, assign a % to each of the group based on their relative number proportion.

Suppose IMF introduces its cryptocurrency tomorrow, only (3) will not support. Is the % of (3) sufficiently significant to be meaningful?

FYI, in the 1940s, the closest to a global central currency called the bancor was proposed though not implemented.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor
This evolved to Special drawing rights in the 1970s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_drawing_rights
In the future, can there be a global central currency? What would be the driving factors? What would be its form?

I'd also imagine the sheep would go with the 'official' currency but don't see that as the endgame, it would still have to compete with bitcoin on running costs but banks don't seem to understand efficiency and even if they do create a competitive system it would just make it easier to trade fiat-btc. That amplifies the banks biggest problem, all Bitcoin has to do is keep working and all the banks have to do is not screw up and that bet's a no brainer.

Yeah... I agree and the banks are always gonna want to skim a little bit... but they cannot accept that a little bit might work and be o.k... but inevitably they are going to get greedy to skim more and more and people will figure it out...

Quote from: TERA on March 24, 2014, 10:22:29 AM

Whoa 8 blocks in 25 minutes.

Is that 200 BTC? 25 per block these days?

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 24, 2014, 08:24:00 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 24, 2014, 08:09:28 PM

Quote from: Peter R on March 24, 2014, 08:07:12 PM

....as per Metcalfe's law.

Useless chart without dinosaurs. I'm not sold yet.

Metcalfe was born in 1946. He *is* a dinosaur. Note that I am a dinosaur as well, so I have nothing against them except we smell a bit swampy.

Al contrare - YOU look like a snowman to me.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 24, 2014, 08:27:31 PM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 24, 2014, 07:53:06 PM

I just rubbed it in my local grocer's face that I no longer consider myself a lifetime Gold member of their establishment because [ .. ] they ignored my request to add Bitcoin.

There, I found another reason to be skeptic about the success of bitcoin: bitcoiners will shop at Walmart instead of at their local grocer, therefore they will eat less healthy food, therefore the genetic predisposition to believe in privately issued cryptocurrencies will soon be weeded out of mankind's gene pool by natural selection.
Wink

You are starting to make sense. Cheesy

Quote from: seleme on March 24, 2014, 09:19:09 PM

I have lot of fiat, don't particularly like this one unless it's breakout which I doubt it is yet.

The worst thing is that I bought few dozen BTC at 560s 2 days ago and then sold them at 550s last night thinking it's going down more, lol. Hate that shit. Hate btc vs usd.

You are gonna need a lot of fiat if you are playing like that... Wink

Quote from: creekbore on March 25, 2014, 02:05:49 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 25, 2014, 12:35:00 AM

Al contrare - YOU look like a snowman to me.

Al contrare?

Au's brother?

Who or what is "Au"?

Quote from: spooderman on March 25, 2014, 02:32:15 AM

Quote from: shmadz on March 25, 2014, 02:25:20 AM

ehhh, I don't like the way this looks, I said a few days ago I thought we had one more big dip left before we take off, and I still think that way.

Quote from: shmadz on March 15, 2014, 12:17:45 AM

<snip>

Wild guess on timeframes? <500 before the end of this month, >1000 by the end of April.

I did quite well accumulating between 500 and 450 the last 2 big dips, I'm still thinking we could see the mother of all triple bottoms before April hits.

of course, it's still just a feeling, a "wild guess". Just be careful out there.

yeah I agree tbh

Are you saying that the price will dip down between $500 and $450 before April... .. ? I'm probably going to buy some more again well before that b/c I tend to think we are NOT dipping below $535... unless it is some kind of flash crash.. that may last less than an hour or so... I'm guessing too... We're all kind of guessing... LOLZ

Quote from: chriswilmer on March 25, 2014, 02:46:45 AM

Quote from: boumalo on March 25, 2014, 02:42:15 AM

Quote from: shmadz on March 25, 2014, 02:25:20 AM

ehhh, I don't like the way this looks, I said a few days ago I thought we had one more big dip left before we take off, and I still think that way.

Quote from: shmadz on March 15, 2014, 12:17:45 AM

<snip>

Wild guess on timeframes? <500 before the end of this month, >1000 by the end of April.

I did quite well accumulating between 500 and 450 the last 2 big dips, I'm still thinking we could see the mother of all triple bottoms before April hits.

of course, it's still just a feeling, a "wild guess". Just be careful out there.

It is the way I "feel" myself, one more big dip before we rise but a bigger and more agressive dip this time, a scary dip

Let's see

I totally agree about an upcoming big scary dip... but it I think it will dip upwards. A reverse dip. (very big and scary though)

This makes even more sense.. a flash crash... upwards.... hehehehe Shocked

Quote from: creekbore on March 25, 2014, 05:55:55 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 25, 2014, 05:48:53 AM

Quote from: creekbore on March 25, 2014, 02:05:49 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 25, 2014, 12:35:00 AM

Al contrare - YOU look like a snowman to me.

Al contrare?

Au's brother?

Who or what is "Au"?

The French for 'on the contrary' is au contraire...

Al is an abbreviated name...hence 'Al' is Au's brother.

All those blows to the head from BillyBob seem to have affected you.

Apparently, I did NOT know which language I was attempting my communication.... ... and seems that I may have been less than successful in my attempt to communicate with clarity... ... ... However, it also seems that at least I was in the ballpark sufficiently in which it seems like a fairly plausible explanation has come about... ... and NOW, I am more edumacated.... at least regarding that particular expression.... gratsi..... Embarrassed

Quote from: creekbore on March 25, 2014, 08:12:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 25, 2014, 06:57:53 AM

Quote from: creekbore on March 25, 2014, 05:55:55 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 25, 2014, 05:48:53 AM

Quote from: creekbore on March 25, 2014, 02:05:49 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 25, 2014, 12:35:00 AM

Al contrare - YOU look like a snowman to me.

Al contrare?

Au's brother?

Who or what is "Au"?

The French for 'on the contrary' is au contraire...

Al is an abbreviated name...hence 'Al' is Au's brother.

All those blows to the head from BillyBob seem to have affected you.

Apparently, I did NOT know which language I was attempting my communication.... ... and seems that I may have been less than successful in my attempt to communicate with clarity... ... ... However, it also seems that at least I was in the ballpark sufficiently in which it seems like a fairly plausible explanation has come about... ... and NOW, I am more edumacated.... at least regarding that particular expression.... gratsi..... Embarrassed

It was a pun/calembour/juego de palabras

perhaps you need to locate your

sense of humour/sens de l'humour/sentido del humor

Yes. I understand humour.

Quote from: creekbore on March 25, 2014, 09:02:09 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 25, 2014, 08:30:12 AM

Yes. I understand humour.

I'm sure you understand the concept, whether you have one...I'd say the jury's out given current evidence.

I'm getting the sense that you are quite insightful in your determinations about what is funny, how much so.... and other matters of such importance.

Quote from: barbs on March 25, 2014, 04:40:06 PM

There's also the problem of the unknown effects of MTGOX's black hole.. I lost a lot of money which I can't put back into the real BTC system, and plenty of others did too... MTGox also lead a price increase at many points in the run up to 1000++... the price now is it real? It's beign supported by an order book with 12 million dollars assuming the next leading exchange is bitstamp? MTgox's Fake or Real orderbook showed a much higher bid sum.. now the leading exchange's bid sum is equivalent to a few houses in a nice neighborhood... for a worldwide currency

I don't know what's going to happen but the majority of me is convinced the markets have not yet adjusted to the MTGox demise and no one really knows what the price should be of BTC at this moment of time. Crisis of confidence in exchanges is still prevalant. BTC as a protocol is still sound but 10 -> 100$ was a big jump in 2013... 10$ -> 1240$... even down to 500$ levels I'm not sure we're at the real BTC price.

Gox really screwed this whole thing up

I thought that massive Chinese speculation and zero fees trading in China caused the quick movement up to $1240? then uncertainties with the future of China's participation in BTC and also maybe Gox's failures deflated some of that speculation hype...

Quote from: droptable on March 25, 2014, 05:21:48 PM

Quote from: smiley123 on March 25, 2014, 05:09:44 PM

Ya, there's kind of a which came first, the chicken or the egg. To get more adoption we need the price to go up, but for the price to go up we need more adoption.

The Chicken.
(always the chicken)

The mutation happened during the "reception" of the animal (the first "chicken"), a animal that happened to lay eggs.
not-chicken-DNS + not chicken-DNS + randomized mutation-> chicken ---> first egg.

Please do not use "chicken and egg", because it can easily be answered.

I'm glad that has been clarified b/c I was always wondering about that, as well as the question about what caused the chicken to cross the road.

Quote from: Tyson95 on March 25, 2014, 05:26:32 PM

Any predictions what will happen if this is true?
https://twitter.com/CanarslanEren/status/448418452701974528

This seems way too good to be true.... and too speculative to venture down the road of such a fantasy idea.

B/c it is such a fantasy and illogical, there would need to be a really clear and convincing explanation, otherwise the BTC market will crash.. as it does with any ambiguous news.

Quote from: Erdogan on March 25, 2014, 07:34:48 PM

Quote from: MAbtc on March 25, 2014, 06:09:02 PM

Quote

IRS Says Bitcoin is Property, Not Currency
In a notice, the IRS said that it generally would treat Bitcoin held by investors much like stock or other intangible property. If the virtual currency is held for investment, any gains would be treated as capital gains, meaning they could be subject to lower tax rates.

http://stream.wsj.com/story/markets/SS-2-5/SS-2-490994/

Probably willful confusion on the govenment side, just like the central bank reports.

It is not a currency, because it is not a generally used medium of exchange, ok, but it is money.

It is not virtual, it is complete, full, real, tangible money.

The expression "virtual currency" should really not be used for bitcoin, cryptocurrency is better, but the best name is cryptomoney.

Seems better for Bitcoin, at least at the moment, to be defined as an asset rather than as a currency b/c otherwise, it seems that government officials could want to squelch it, if it were defined as a currency.

Also, defining bitcoin as an asset does NOT seem to stop people from trading or otherwise using bitcoin as a payment system. Doesn't seem like a problem... and there is some benefit that comes with a definition, even though the definition may NOT be the end of the story..

Quote from: TERA on March 25, 2014, 10:48:35 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 25, 2014, 02:07:53 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 25, 2014, 01:57:26 PM

1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?

Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

To me, that means that you have gotten 4,000 times return on your initial investment.

Accordingly, if you started with $1,000, you now have $400,000.

I wished I could figure out how to get those kinds of returns, but I do NOT want to work too hard... I'm thinking that there's gotta be some luck involved, also... .

Quote from: pjviitas on March 25, 2014, 11:54:42 PM

We think we have it tough...spend some time over at the auroracoin subforum...not fun

what's that supposed to mean?

Quote from: Erdogan on March 26, 2014, 01:09:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 26, 2014, 01:06:03 AM

Quote from: TERA on March 25, 2014, 10:48:35 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 25, 2014, 02:07:53 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 25, 2014, 01:57:26 PM

1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?

Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

To me, that means that you have gotten 4,000 times return on your initial investment.

Accordingly, if you started with $1,000, you now have $400,000.

I wished I could figure out how to get those kinds of returns, but I do NOT want to work too hard... I'm thinking that there's gotta be some luck involved, also... .

Maybe he started with a very small capital because he didn't really believe in his own chart magic.

That could be.... Grin

I really suck at trading and I will admit it. However, I tend to be pretty decent if I attempt to trade at .1BTC at a time or some small amount like that, and then as soon as I up my trades to 1 to 5 BTC, then I get screwed.. left behind in one direction or another.

So I kind of gave up on attempting to trade b/c I thought that trading was taking way too much work to be trying to carry out .1BTC at a time.. (b/c the pay off with that amount is way to small as compared with how much time it takes to watch the market). I am sure that there are various tricks to make this less time consuming, but I have NOT yet figured it out.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 26, 2014, 01:18:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 26, 2014, 01:06:03 AM

Quote from: TERA on March 25, 2014, 10:48:35 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 25, 2014, 02:07:53 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 25, 2014, 01:57:26 PM

1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?

Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

To me, that means that you have gotten 4,000 times return on your initial investment.

Accordingly, if you started with $1,000, you now have $400,000.

I wished I could figure out how to get those kinds of returns, but I do NOT want to work too hard... I'm thinking that there's gotta be some luck involved, also... .

It's a claimed 400X return, not a 4,000X return, but she pulls~ 10% fiat out every three months or so, so I suspect actual returns (which should be calculated to include those funds) are much lower. Correct me if I'm wrong, TERA.

Yeah... sorry for the contradiction.. I did mean 400x returns (not 4,000x)... 1,000 transformed into 400,000 = 400x

If someone is withdrawing every 3 months, too, then doesn't that cause less calculation regarding the initial capital... b/c anything withdrawn takes away from the initial investment, then thereafter, all you are playing with (after you retrieve your initial investment) is profits..

That would also be a nice position to be in, but if trading is your full time occupation (ONLY source of income), then the question may be is the amount that you have contained therein sustainable.

I think that a lot of us would like to get to the point (if we are NOT already there) to be able to withdraw whatever percentage of income that we need our invested funds are generally earning more than we are needing to withdraw.. and best if that could be accomplished to a large degree passively rather than actively.

Currently, I'm only at about 41 BTC, so I do NOT expect to get to that point in the BTC world, anytime soon.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 26, 2014, 01:48:53 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 26, 2014, 01:18:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 26, 2014, 01:06:03 AM

Quote from: TERA on March 25, 2014, 10:48:35 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 25, 2014, 02:07:53 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 25, 2014, 01:57:26 PM

1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?

Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

To me, that means that you have gotten 4,000 times return on your initial investment.

Accordingly, if you started with $1,000, you now have $400,000.

I wished I could figure out how to get those kinds of returns, but I do NOT want to work too hard... I'm thinking that there's gotta be some luck involved, also... .

It's a claimed 400X return, not a 4,000X return, but she pulls~ 10% fiat out every three months or so, so I suspect actual returns (which should be calculated to include those funds) are much lower. Correct me if I'm wrong, TERA.

Yeah... sorry for the contradiction.. I did mean 400x returns (not 4,000x)... 1,000 transformed into 400,000 = 400x

If someone is withdrawing every 3 months, too, then doesn't that cause less calculation regarding the initial capital... b/c anything withdrawn takes away from the initial investment, then thereafter, all you are playing with (after you retrieve your initial investment) is profits..

That would also be a nice position to be in, but if trading is your full time occupation (ONLY source of income), then the question may be is the amount that you have contained therein sustainable.

I think that a lot of us would like to get to the point (if we are NOT already there) to be able to withdraw whatever percentage of income that we need our invested funds are generally earning more than we are needing to withdraw.. and best if that could be accomplished to a large degree passively rather than actively.

Currently, I'm only at about 41 BTC, so I do NOT expect to get to that point in the BTC world, anytime soon.

By the way, in order to get to a fairly decent passive income stream from an investment , a lot of investment advisors suggest being able to withdraw from one's investment fund at less than 4% per year... with the assumption that on average the fund will be earning more than 4% per year.

I calculate that having an investment fund of about $1 million would sustain about $3.3k per month income (withdrawal). Of course if your investment happens to be earning, on average, more than 4% per year, then you could afford to withdraw more than 4% per year.. and still maintain the balance of the fund.

Also, it is NOT really easy to live well on $3.3K per month.... so there may be desires to build up the investment fund somewhat higher or to figure out how to receive better than 4% per year earnings on that fund.... and yes needing to account for inflation too, can eat into one's spending power.

I am hoping to get better than 4% per year average returns with bitcoins.... but as I said above, my nest egg is currently, NOT very large in the BTC world.

Quote from: TERA on March 26, 2014, 02:36:57 AM

I started with X, and now I have 400*X. It is that simple. It has nothing to do with how much I've withdrawn.

I was previously on a schedule of withdrawing about 20% every 3 months. However, now, for the first time ever, I have withdrawn 50% and split my funds entirely in half - 50% remain in btc and the btc markets, and 50% is back on earth. This will add a small setback to the exponential growth of my funds. However, I had to do this to:
1. Pay my taxes
2. Diversify in preparation for a potential economic collapse.
3. Lock in the ability to support myself and pay expenses for 1-2 years.
4. Buy some business equipment.
5. I wanted to open a brokerage account to try my hand in daytrading stocks/forex/futures. With this type of account I can still potentially exponentially grow these funds but they are not locked in as paper gains in the btc world.
I am now considering real estate investments also, but have not allocated any funds for it.

No, my primary occupation is not trading or finance. I am a software developer.

Surely, each of us personalizes our diversification to our level of confidence and risk tolerance, and our needs, expenses, efficiencies and luck will likely vary.

Bitcoin occupies less than 5% of my total investment, but probably more than 20% of my arguably liquid investments. these amounts are NOT easy to calculate - especially, if some assets are NOT liquid and their value may NOT be truly known until such liquidation has been carried out.

From your recent posts, it appears that you may be diversifying to some extent out of BTC - and me, on the contrary, I am slowly increasing my BTC holdings and the percentage of my total BTC holdings.

Since I am a fairly newbie to BTC, I continue to monitor and learn about it, and based on my learning and monitoring of BTC, I may decide to alter my overall strategy and/or the percentage of my BTC holdings... but currently, i am thinking that it is looking good to continue to add to my BTC investment(s)... at least for a couple of years .. subject to reconsiderations along the way.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 26, 2014, 03:20:08 AM

Quote from: TERA on March 26, 2014, 02:36:57 AM

I started with X, and now I have 400*X. It is that simple. It has nothing to do with how much I've withdrawn.

I was previously on a schedule of withdrawing about 20% every 3 months. However, now, for the first time ever, I have withdrawn 50% and split my funds entirely in half - 50% remain in btc and the btc markets, and 50% is back on earth. This will add a small setback to the exponential growth of my funds. However, I had to do this to:
1. Pay my taxes
2. Diversify in preparation for a potential economic collapse.
3. Lock in the ability to support myself and pay expenses for 1-2 years.
4. Buy some business equipment.
5. I wanted to open a brokerage account to try my hand in daytrading stocks/forex/futures. With this type of account I can still potentially exponentially grow these funds but they are not locked in as paper gains in the btc world.
I am now considering real estate investments also, but have not allocated any funds for it.

No, my primary occupation is not trading or finance. I am a software developer.

It's just hard to believe that you effectively doubled up 9X in a row to get returns like that. Did you use leverage on bitfinex? Borrow BTC to short it? Outperforming the market 400X is an extraordinary claim. Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence and I have yet to see much evidence. Nothing personal.

I find it difficult to comprehend, but seems like it could be possible.... with extraordinary timing... buying low and selling high.. rinse and repeat.

However, I believe that she is only claiming to outperformed the market by 100x. She is saying that she got 400X, but the market, on its own, performed 4x. I believe that would be her outperforming the market by 100X....

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on March 26, 2014, 05:25:01 AM

Quote from: windjc on March 26, 2014, 05:18:13 AM

Well we didn't even get to 50% retracement of the 8 consecutive red candles (598). Which is shocking given that we went to 592 in a few hours of correction.

But the sell walls to keep price suppressed were amazingly effective. The bulls have no balls currently.

And the bears seem more eager to put up walls than to really sell.

So maybe we just sit and stare at each other for a while somewhere between $550 and $575.

Seems like a likely scenario. Not one that I favor atm though, because it looks like I might lose my bet against Pruden Wink

.

You still got five days... You may want to do some bear-ish trolling...

Quote from: creekbore on March 26, 2014, 06:04:19 AM

Quote from: aminorex on March 26, 2014, 02:49:58 AM

just noticed that my favorite log baseline crossed over 500. rising almost $4/diem now. crosses the current price on 12 Apr. crosses ATH on 9 Jul at a rate of $8/diem.

Why say 'diem'? Is not easier and more accessible to type day?

You know how you keep saying about your rule of thumb re. asking cabbies if they have heard of Bitcoin and they reply, no.

Try asking them in English rather Latin, maybe you'll get a different response.

I find language fun, too, as long as the joke does NOT digress into aire stuperior.... in that regard, when it comes to word choice, there remains artistic discretion - NOT necessarily equally enjoyed nor appreciated.

Quote from: Pruden on March 26, 2014, 08:21:54 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 26, 2014, 02:18:55 AM

By the way, in order to get to a fairly decent passive income stream from an investment , a lot of investment advisors suggest being able to withdraw from one's investment fund at less than 4% per year... with the assumption that on average the fund will be earning more than 4% per year.

I calculate that having an investment fund of about $1 million would sustain about $3.3k per month income (withdrawal). Of course if your investment happens to be earning, on average, more than 4% per year, then you could afford to withdraw more than 4% per year.. and still maintain the balance of the fund.

Also, it is NOT really easy to live well on $3.3K per month.... so there may be desires to build up the investment fund somewhat higher or to figure out how to receive better than 4% per year earnings on that fund.... and yes needing to account for inflation too, can eat into one's spending power.

I am hoping to get better than 4% per year average returns with bitcoins.... but as I said above, my nest egg is currently, NOT very large in the BTC world.

This family of three lives opulently on less than $3.3k/month (you should add the house payments if you haven't got it yet, admittedly), in a metropolis it's probably much harder.

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/

4% APR is a conservative estimate for stock market long-term profitability after taxes and inflation.

Just save 25 times your annual spending and you're comfortably set for life.

YES... your cited article elaborates on the concept of living within your means... and I agree the less high maintenance you are, the earlier you can retire.... so long as you can keep up that same budget or lifestyle.. after retiring.. or you have a realistic grasp about how much it takes for you to live at a level that will be comfortable for you..

Quote from: macsga on March 27, 2014, 02:44:18 PM

HODL!!!!!1

I'm just trying to figure out at what point to buy b/c it seems too late to sell at this point.

Quote from: macsga on March 27, 2014, 02:49:41 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 27, 2014, 02:47:37 PM

Quote from: macsga on March 27, 2014, 02:44:18 PM

HODL!!!!!1

I'm just trying to figure out at what point to buy b/c it seems too late to sell at this point.

Anytime now, if you have the funds, would be nice... By this time next year you'll probably have 10x your fiat investment. Wink

I'm with you there, regarding the one year period... . Nonetheless, I am a little bit disinclined to buy at $515-ish, if the price is going to go down to $480....... Even though in a year, it may NOT matter too much.

Quote from: BRADLEYPLOOF on March 27, 2014, 02:49:04 PM

It seems to be true that the Chinese official policies regarding bitcoin does NOT matter to the overall fundamentals of bitcoin b/c the Chinese will still find their ways to speculate in the bitcoin space.

But also their ability to be bitcoin speculation fanatics drives bitcoin prices and could affect whether (or NOT) we return to ATH in the next few months.

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 27, 2014, 03:07:53 PM

Quote from: mah87 on March 27, 2014, 03:05:10 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on March 27, 2014, 03:01:28 PM

ppl really should stop getting exited about something like this really. So much noobs.

BITCOIN HAS BEEN DECLARED "NOT A CURRENCY" . THIS IS THE END DON't YOU GET IT YET ?

lol!

if thats not a buy signal idk what is.

Yeah.. that seems to be more of a buy rather than a sell... At least it is NOT really a bad thing, b/c it provides some clarity.... either way, people are still going to continue to use bitcoin for payments, even if it is declared "NOT A CURRENCY."

Quote from: boumalo on March 27, 2014, 03:16:40 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 27, 2014, 03:07:53 PM

Quote from: mah87 on March 27, 2014, 03:05:10 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on March 27, 2014, 03:01:28 PM

ppl really should stop getting exited about something like this really. So much noobs.

BITCOIN HAS BEEN DECLARED "NOT A CURRENCY" . THIS IS THE END DON't YOU GET IT YET ?

lol!

if thats not a buy signal idk what is.

Apparently the market doesn't think it is

BTC @ 523$ on btc-e

China matters bc they have been buying a lot of BTC, they are 1.3Billion and they will be the next richest country in the world by all means very soon

I am guestimating....... However, at the moment, probably less than 1% of the chinese even know about bitcoin... and less than .1% actually invest in bitcoin.

Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on March 27, 2014, 03:19:21 PM

Double bottom always induce panic buy behind, at least in the book

GO bitcoin !

HOLY FUCK...... I did NOT pull the trigger, and it looks like I am losing my opportunity to buy on coinbase at $515.... maybe we are never gonna return to that price? The buy price has gone up more than $20 in 15 minutes.... Maybe I will have to settle for some other amount.. possibly $525, since we are kind of hovering?

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 27, 2014, 03:31:47 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 27, 2014, 03:27:24 PM

Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on March 27, 2014, 03:19:21 PM

Double bottom always induce panic buy behind, at least in the book

GO bitcoin !

HOLY FUCK...... I did NOT pull the trigger, and it looks like I am losing my opportunity to buy on coinbase at $515.... maybe we are never gonna return to that price? The buy price has gone up more than $20 in 15 minutes.... Maybe I will have to settle for some other amount.. possibly $525, since we are kind of hovering?

do not blink!

OH>..... there is NO way that I am selling anything in the near future, absent some real and meaningful news... I seem to be a buy and HODL kind of guy.

At the moment, I just want to buy a little more BTC at the cheapest possible price,.... since ALSO I am a bit of an economy shopper...

I just do NOT happen to be able to pinpoint at which price-point I should buy... $525, or are we gonna return to $515 in the very near future?

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 27, 2014, 03:37:14 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 27, 2014, 03:31:47 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 27, 2014, 03:27:24 PM

Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on March 27, 2014, 03:19:21 PM

Double bottom always induce panic buy behind, at least in the book

GO bitcoin !

HOLY FUCK...... I did NOT pull the trigger, and it looks like I am losing my opportunity to buy on coinbase at $515.... maybe we are never gonna return to that price? The buy price has gone up more than $20 in 15 minutes.... Maybe I will have to settle for some other amount.. possibly $525, since we are kind of hovering?

do not blink!

OH>..... there is NO way that I am selling anything in the near future, absent some real and meaningful news... I seem to be a buy and HODL kind of guy.

At the moment, I just want to buy a little more BTC at the cheapest possible price,.... since ALSO I am a bit of an economy shopper...

I just do NOT happen to be able to pinpoint at which price-point I should buy... $525, or are we gonna return to $515 in the very near future?

Now we are back down... so $520... seems pretty easy.. but.... I am probably gonna need to pull the trigger this time at $515... I am NOT sure if we gonna get much lower than that, on Coinbase... Of course... speculation on my part.

Quote from: macsga on March 27, 2014, 03:42:55 PM

Shaky weak hands will leave the game and the price will go boom.

CCMF coming on a screen near you, shortly after the break.

O.k. NOW, I am relieved a little bit... Comments like this "CCMF coming soon" caused me to pull the trigger at $517.03. I can rest for a little bit now, and my next buy point will be around sub $500-ish, if we get to that point in the next day or so.. HOPEFULLY NOT.....

Quote from: podyx on March 27, 2014, 03:50:04 PM

Quote from: Painful Truth on March 27, 2014, 03:48:36 PM

Quote from: Todorius on March 27, 2014, 03:30:50 PM

Quote from: podyx on March 27, 2014, 03:29:21 PM

dont tell me we gona see a 2011 bear market

how would that even be possible with all the hype bitcoin has been getting and all VC's, wallstreet moving in etc.

i cant help but think we gonna see a violent upswing pretty soon

I totally agree!

I don't know if we go below $400 but when the real upswing comes it will be the most violent ever. Who wants to buy coins at +$1k prices when you can get them for half off now. It'll be a rush for the door. Grin

the world market is stupid

also i didnt mean $1k+

i meant more like $700

Between $700 and $850... is pretty much a no brainer in the very near future... However, I am thinking that the ATH has been delayed a little bit b/c of the extent of this downward trend... But seems pretty likely that in the very near future... let's say less than a month, we will be bouncing between $700 and $850

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 27, 2014, 03:55:41 PM

Quote from: bitcool on March 27, 2014, 03:51:30 PM

Why does anyone care about China at all?

A dead Chinese btc market is a good thing, and it should have been factored in already.

poeple still believe the rumours are true?

BUY BUY BUY!

I wished i had more fiat to pump into this baby...

Quote from: Todorius on March 27, 2014, 04:19:47 PM

Quote from: tarmi on March 27, 2014, 04:15:33 PM

Quote from: FelixO on March 27, 2014, 03:49:10 PM

I'm also back in. Time for upwards departure

this aint bull market, son.

only possible departure is to the sub 500 zone.

Every bear market ends at some point. You just don't know when exactly. Sub 500 coins is a gamble. Could be, could not be.
It's anyones guess I think.

That's why I sucked it up and bought a little at $517....... for sure I am buying again below $500, unless some actual and real news affects my decision...

Quote from: oda.krell on March 27, 2014, 04:37:04 PM

Quote from: Zapffe on March 27, 2014, 04:34:43 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on March 27, 2014, 04:29:18 PM

So... we finally looking into the bigger triangle yet for support?

[...]

Quickly, draw more lines... draw also ones that point up.. that will surely make the price rise! This has been the general sentiment in this forum, so it has to work!

That's a fancy way of saying you don't understand my chart, or which conclusions you should draw from it.

I certainly would NOT claim to understand your chart, either.... or any of the charts that are frequently depicted in this thread b/c I remain unclear about frequently why a chart would start at some seemingly random place in the middle....

Sometimes, however, there is some explanation about the chart that makes sense b/c it is merely describing past recent performance... and of course, I am NOT doubting that there can be some valid contributions of the chart to provide some perspective in that regard - even though it may NOT spell certainty about what's coming next and approximately when it will be coming....

Quote from: Pruden on March 27, 2014, 04:53:58 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on March 27, 2014, 01:36:02 PM

Kachiiing...

Damn, that bet wasn't good for my health...

Damn your FUD-o-matic. Cheesy

Yeah... that was quite the bet... and certainly, I was pretty confident that we were NOT going to see sub $530 - especially once the price began moving towards $600... with no apparent return in sight...

Quote from: FelixO on March 27, 2014, 05:34:07 PM

Quote from: infofront on March 27, 2014, 04:20:11 PM

Quote from: tarmi on March 27, 2014, 04:15:33 PM

Quote from: FelixO on March 27, 2014, 03:49:10 PM

I'm also back in. Time for upwards departure

this aint bull market, son.

only possible departure is to the sub 500 zone.

Agreed. Now is not the time to buy.

Here I am walking through the woods, desperately fumbling around the minute options on my Iphone's display to close my long position on bitfinex on the advice of unknown strangers on bitcointalk Cheesy

Took my little profit at 528 and am now in fiat. Don't make me get angry at you guys Wink

thanks for the hint

Yeah... I suppose that it depends upon who you trust... I certainly am of the sentiment that we could hit $495, maybe 50% chance... but it is very likely that I am NOT selling any BTC until we are over $700... he he he he ...

Quote from: Zapffe on March 27, 2014, 06:12:52 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on March 27, 2014, 05:35:06 PM

Quote from: Zapffe on March 27, 2014, 05:29:15 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on March 27, 2014, 04:37:04 PM

Quote from: Zapffe on March 27, 2014, 04:34:43 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on March 27, 2014, 04:29:18 PM

So... we finally looking into the bigger triangle yet for support?

[...]

Quickly, draw more lines... draw also ones that point up.. that will surely make the price rise! This has been the general sentiment in this forum, so it has to work!

That's a fancy way of saying you don't understand my chart, or which conclusions you should draw from it.

That's me saying that your charts are meaningless. Start creating charts in a way, that they could predict the right outcome at least 50% of the time, and there would be some meaning.
It may be a shock to you but drawing lines from the bottoms and tops at bitcoinwisdom isn't exactly an advanced method of prediction, that would be hard to understand to anyone. It's just a way for some people to rationalize their gambling habits, so they could call their gambling as "investing" to girlfriend and friends.

Jup, suspected that much. And because you don't draw those silly little charts you're posting one bitter comment after another, because you either missed the train, or jumped off too early, or whatever pathetic trading decisions you made in the past, while I can afford to look at the price in a more, hm, relaxed way. But good luck with your approach, whatever it is.

I got in at 200, sold at around 1030, bought couple of times since, once with zero outcome and other time a 6% profit from a strong pump. So, stop trying to justify yourself by trying to fantasize about me. Trading is not about drawing lines but about knowing the nature of the entire market, it's product or service and it's development. You can only use previous trends if the environment is the same as it was during that previous trend. If you think that BTC is the same as it was during the days of "internet play money that can be used to buy drugs", then you are an absolute fool, who can't even understand things that should be considered as common sense
But keep going, keep drawing your little lines at bitcoinwisdom and fantasize that this makes you a knowledgeable trader. It's funny how the line drawers are wrong more then right, but they are constantly speaking like they are earning profit. The mystery or life... Reminds me of the movie "Freddy got fingered" where Tom Green started to show random graphs and presented himself as an stockbroker.

Definitely, I have difficulties understanding how much weight to give to various lines; however, this is the speculation thread. Therefore, it is much more valuable to see various contributions and speculations that are based on some concepts.. rather than some rant that denigrates other contributions for NO apparent reason... except maybe Zapffe, you feel good to be able to denigrate others on some quasi-anonymous forum? that shows more about your lack of character, rather than showing that line drawing is meaningless (which I believe was the other point you were attempting to make... .. )

Quote from: oda.krell on March 27, 2014, 06:24:47 PM

The chart I posted consisted of 2 (or maybe 2.5) descending triangles. The question exactly how "arbitrary" they are is valid in principle, but if you look at it you will note the lines aren't drawn completely out of the blue: the major descending line has 6, maybe 7 points of contact with daily price candles, to a pretty remarkable degree of accuracy. You can certainly question the validity and staying power of that downtrend (since the December ATH), but trading on it sure turned out to be profitable in the past weeks. At some point that trendline *will* be broken, I'm sure, but so far it hasn't happened (with any kind of volume as well).

The lower lines that form the smaller triangle run through the pretty well established support at ~520, slightly ascending perhaps. I said "2.5 triangles" because to me it looks like there are 2 levels of support running close to each other, but they aren't much apart, so many in this forum put the two lines together as one lower trendline. The trend lines of the smaller triangle are about to touch, and we either have to go up or down (breaking out towards the upside, or the downside), that's the trivially true part.

Now, today, we broke through the 520 support trend line (that marked the smaller triangle), although we're currently resting above it, which is not a bad sign. My chart was intended to raise the question: will we "break" the smaller triangle to the downside (i.e. go below 520, then 500), or rather: did we just break out to the downside, and will we perhaps, in the following weeks look for resistance/support in the larger triangle (that lasts into May 2014).

Here's the chart again:

Thanks for that explanation, and in essence you are suggesting that there will be a sort of force that causes BTC to gravitate towards these kinds of trendlines, despite a potential exponential growth curve... In other words, even if there were an exponential explosion of BTC prices, there would be a force pulling the price back down to the trendlines... unless the trendline were to shift upward or downward.. depending on if there is enough evidence to support drawing the line in a different way based on the number of connection points.

I don't really have any problems with these kinds of analyses... b/c they seem to make sense.... even though you may NOT bet the farm on it.. but they could guide you absent other news.

Quote from: Zapffe on March 27, 2014, 06:43:16 PM

What I'm saying is that these bitcoinwisdom line drawing attempts aren't trustworthy speculations. It wouldn't be worth of mentioning when the majority of the forum wouldn't consider them as trustworthy. When MtGox crashed, then the majority thought that we are back on an uptrend just because couple of reputable baffoons drawed couple of lines, that "proved" this. If the market were smarter, then everyone would earn more money. This unstable market that is lead by chaotic desperation and illusions, isn't very attractive any more, and I really want it to be attractive! So smarten up ffs and stop drawing lines and start concentrating at the general nature of the market.

You are appearing to be so bitter to merely criticize and attack and denigrate without offering any meaningful alternatives. You seem to be suggesting to predict BTC prices by just doing whatever feels good or feels right at the time... little objective guidance with those kinds of abstract considerations.

YES, maybe line drawing is NOT the be all end all.... and few are saying that it is...

Surely there are other pieces of evidence that can be accounted to consider the price direction of BTC besides line drawing, and I think everyone agrees to that.. Also, everyone seems to agree that the past does NOT predict the future and that various variables can alter the line drawing predictions... so in this regard, you seem to be attempting to attribute much more predictive value to the line drawings than the line drawers themselves are attributing to such lines.

Quote from: maximum on March 27, 2014, 06:51:29 PM

Quote from: podyx on March 27, 2014, 06:47:38 PM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 27, 2014, 06:46:04 PM

Anyone still holding please drop your drawers and bend over.

What's that supposed to mean??

better sell now. Cheesy

I'm disinclined to sell under $700... .. though I may reconsider with good evidence

Quote from: Zapffe on March 27, 2014, 09:06:00 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 27, 2014, 07:24:47 PM

Quote from: Zapffe on March 27, 2014, 06:43:16 PM

What I'm saying is that these bitcoinwisdom line drawing attempts aren't trustworthy speculations. It wouldn't be worth of mentioning when the majority of the forum wouldn't consider them as trustworthy. When MtGox crashed, then the majority thought that we are back on an uptrend just because couple of reputable baffoons drawed couple of lines, that "proved" this. If the market were smarter, then everyone would earn more money. This unstable market that is lead by chaotic desperation and illusions, isn't very attractive any more, and I really want it to be attractive! So smarten up ffs and stop drawing lines and start concentrating at the general nature of the market.

You are appearing to be so bitter to merely criticize and attack and denigrate without offering any meaningful alternatives. You seem to be suggesting to predict BTC prices by just doing whatever feels good or feels right at the time... little objective guidance with those kinds of abstract considerations.

YES, maybe line drawing is NOT the be all end all.... and few are saying that it is...

Surely there are other pieces of evidence that can be accounted to consider the price direction of BTC besides line drawing, and I think everyone agrees to that.. Also, everyone seems to agree that the past does NOT predict the future and that various variables can alter the line drawing predictions... so in this regard, you seem to be attempting to attribute much more predictive value to the line drawings than the line drawers themselves are attributing to such lines.

Is it really hard to understand these simple concepts:

Shutdown of an important market = Loss of demand caused by closing an important channel of incoming flow = Price lowers
Shutdown of an important market, together with the loss of customer funds = Bigger loss of demand, caused by closing an important channel + loss of trust towards the entire market system = Price lowers even more

THE thing to consider with cryptos are the markets. How many markets there are in different geographical places and how comfortable do people feel in using them. This is the main factor that creates demand, so it's the most important factor to consider, since supply is relatively stable and predictable. And you can't understand this aspect by drawing lines in graphs. You could get better predictions by using volume in that equation, not just draw a line between bottoms and tops. But volumes can be faked in crypto, so it's not solid either. Stable trends only apply to markets that are very stable. Where things like 4 seasons of the year or restrictions of the law affect the price in the repeating pattern. Drawing lines in the crypto market is insanity, because the entire market is based on speculation and the entire environment is quickly changing. You have to think on your feet to trade effectively, not just draw lines. I think that the mindless line drawers are the reason on why there is so much uncertainty and confusion. They are leading the people to look at things that doesn't matter and then again everyone will be surprised that why didn't it go like this. And always after the line drawer predictions didn't come through, then they begin acting like they knew about this all along, and the lemmings forgot how certain they were about their lines just couple of weeks ago.

Surely there is some truth to what your saying; however, in my view you are being way to emphatic and denigrating about it. And, you are engaging in a lot of generalizations in order to denigrate line drawers...... so what... ? let them draw their lines and do whatever, who cares?

Some people will give line drawing weight and others will NOT ... why does it matter? Some people will be falsely lead by the line drawing b/c they are NOT flexible enough or they fail to take into account other factors that affect and manipulate the market... so what... ?

I guess my point is that you have made some points, but your point is NOT really any more valid than the line drawers attempting to figure out what to do... and maybe failing to recognize some other important market dynamic. Let speculators use whatever tools they wish in order to speculate, and each of us can determine how much time we want to spend in that regard or how much weight to give such information derived from such speculations.

Quote from: JoeyD on March 27, 2014, 09:13:11 PM

This China ban news is starting to get a bit old, is there a way to get things over with and be done with it?

Yeah.... you could cut your wrist, or put a loaded shot gun in your mouth and pull trigger or jump off a 10 story building without a parachute... any of these could get things over with.

Quote from: roslinpl on March 27, 2014, 09:48:55 PM

My predictions from yesterday were kinda not good as I see... Tongue

Instead of go up, price went down ... ~35$ ...

And no money to buy cheap coins! Sad

such sad.

I am definitely running out of Fiat reserves, too.

UNEXPECTANTLY - In the past three weeks, I have been buying BTC since about $610, and i did NOT expect BTC prices to go lower than $610. I have continued to expect BTC prices to go up... but I have bought about 6 BTC between $486 and $610. If I had known (BIG IF), I would have saved my fiat and bought them all at $486... then I could have probably gotten 7 BTC for about the same price that I paid for the 6 BTC.

Quote from: gotmilk_ on March 27, 2014, 10:08:54 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 27, 2014, 09:58:44 PM

Quote from: lemonte on March 27, 2014, 09:29:34 PM

Genuinely interested, what do people think will happen to the price in the next 3 months if the Chinese news is real?

I believe that the two rallies in 2013 were caused by the opening of the Chinese market, which created huge demand for BTC and sucked coins out of the Western markets. If the ban is real (I am not convinced yet) most of the coins in the Chinese exchange accounts may be moved to the non-Chinese exchanges. So I think this may well happen:

The black line is an exponential fitted by eyeball in log scale to the Bitstamp prices before April 2013.

But I think this it is just a possibility, I would not bet on it. It is hard to guess what the big holders and investors will do: whether they will buy all the Chinese bitcoins, or dump those they already have.

Not sure how to explain you that... but in this one year, there was a big step up for btc. Not just in price but also in infrastructure Wink

So please... be smart and say at least 300$ (worst case scenario) and even if we go to 300$ I'm sure lots of todays holders would take a loan on their house/car/wife Grin

to buy more coins.

And then.... here is also Wall Street.

I have a hard time buying two digits.. except maybe some weird flash crash scenario.. otherwise, i am with got milk.. and $300 or possibly a little bit lower could be extreme downsides... but I cannot seem much lower than $300... for any sustained period of more than a few hours.

Quote from: Zapffe on March 27, 2014, 11:11:46 PM

I sound like this because I have been telling all of this since January, but nobody listened and they called me names Sad

I want to play bitcoin, but the other boys are breaking the game because they don't know how to play Cry

Please, tell them that causing slow downtrends isn't how it's done :''(

WTF? Are you even invested in BTC? If so, what's your strategy, just play it by ear and get pissed off at charts? I keep saying who cares about charts, unless you rely on something that you do NOT understand. If someone else is relying on something that is less accurate than your method, then more power to you, no?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 27, 2014, 11:33:45 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 27, 2014, 10:13:33 PM

Jorge thats brokers
buy a bitcoin!

You mean, buy one NOW?

Wow! Much friends this thread! Such nice!

This is as good a time as any, NO? And, you do NOT have to buy a whole bitcoin, you can buy a fraction of a bitcoin.... that way you can familiarize yourself with the process of buying... and setting up an account..

Don't be such a scaredy cat!!!

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 27, 2014, 11:51:36 PM

guys stop freaking china news is completely fake.

The poll is NOW outdated. I actually predicted that we would NOT get under $500 - except maybe a flash crash... and maybe this will NOT last for long - however, it seems that we have been trading below $500 for more than 1.5 hours... so must be official that the "yeses" won this particular poll.

Quote from: MinermanNC on March 27, 2014, 11:44:33 PM

Quote from: stan.distortion on March 27, 2014, 11:43:11 PM

Quote from: bassclef on March 27, 2014, 11:39:50 PM

Quote from: Dr. LY on March 27, 2014, 11:38:25 PM

It's that moment where you're terrified you're going to lose it all.

aka "The time to buy more"

This. Always this. Some people never learn.

No no no, its going to $10, the mighty prophets of the temple of economics have given us their word on this, $10 spring 2014.

What ever happened to 10k by spring lol

Maybe the 10K prediction will have to wait a little bit, until either Spring 2015 or Spring 2016 or possibly Spring 2017 or lastly, possibly some other convenient time that will work out a lil better. Spring 2014, is nearing its end point, so 10k does NOT seem likely in the next week or even the next month.

Quote from: Kramerc on March 27, 2014, 11:55:00 PM

Its 2 AM. I got my popcorn with me, but I must say, I am experiencing a certain level of fear.

Sadly, I can't buy moar, my fiat is running out.

Same here.... that's what I keep saying when guys say that they would buy a shitload of BTC if the price went to $100 per BTC... the problem is I would NOT have any money left by the time it got that low.

Quote from: boumalo on March 28, 2014, 12:04:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 27, 2014, 11:51:41 PM

Quote from: roslinpl on March 27, 2014, 09:48:55 PM

My predictions from yesterday were kinda not good as I see... Tongue

Instead of go up, price went down ... ~35$ ...

And no money to buy cheap coins! Sad

such sad.

I am definitely running out of Fiat reserves, too.

UNEXPECTANTLY - In the past three weeks, I have been buying BTC since about $610, and i did NOT expect BTC prices to go lower than $610. I have continued to expect BTC prices to go up... but I have bought about 6 BTC between $486 and $610. If I had known (BIG IF), I would have saved my fiat and bought them all at $486... then I could have probably gotten 7 BTC for about the same price that I paid for the 6 BTC.

Maybe you can sell now and buy back when it's 50$ lower or you just patiently hold and wait like everyone else

I bet a lot of people are getting fiat to the exchanges to buy "cheap" coins..

I'm too afraid to sell any more than .2BTC at a time. Almost any time that I begin to attempt to profit from trading or to sell larger quantities of BTC expecting to trade and to profit from that, I get left in the dust.

Trading BTC does NOT seem to be my forte...

Unless there is some kind of extremely negative news, I have resolved NOT to sell any BTC until I am getting closer to being in the black. Currently my BTC buy-in price is about $670... so BTC has a way to go UP before I am back in the black.

Quote from: Zapffe on March 28, 2014, 12:19:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 28, 2014, 12:12:53 AM

Quote from: Zapffe on March 27, 2014, 11:11:46 PM

I sound like this because I have been telling all of this since January, but nobody listened and they called me names Sad

I want to play bitcoin, but the other boys are breaking the game because they don't know how to play Cry

Please, tell them that causing slow downtrends isn't how it's done :''(

WTF? Are you even invested in BTC? If so, what's your strategy, just play it by ear and get pissed off at charts? I keep saying who cares about charts, unless you rely on something that you do NOT understand. If someone else is relying on something that is less accurate than your method, then more power to you, no?

Of course I'm not invested in BTC. I held BTC more then 24h last time during December 2013. To me, it's madness or stupidity, to be holding coins with this market. My point is that these graphs that are presented are fugazi. They are presented by people who are either incompetent or their goal is to spread false information. This in turn is creating an ugly market and I really wanted for BTC to be pretty.

You lose quite a bit of credibility by NOT being invested in BTC and then to be making suggestions concerning which investment tools a guy should use or NOT use. I have found that generally the posters providing graphs are putting in a certain level of skin to make their points and projections about the direction of BTC. Yes, on an anonymous forum, we need to take all information with a grain of salt, and I will take your information with even more grains of salt, once I get to know more about your philosophy regarding BTC - and it does NOT match with mine. I have been investing and I have quite a bit in the BTC game. That fact does NOT necessarily make me biased, but gives me various incentives to learn and to take from various sources in order to attempt to maximize my investment possibilities....

And, BTC is NOT my only investment or area of knowledge, so I get what I can out of the various charts, and I find them interesting that posters can attempt to explain various past performance or even to attempt to make predictions based in part on information in the charts....

NO matter what some people are going to have bad motives... and yours seem questionable in my mind at this point - especially given your seeming proclivity to attack people and to denigrate and to assume bad motives where the bad motives have NOT been proven.

Quote from: Davyd05 on March 28, 2014, 12:20:08 AM

oh cool we bounced of the 1 day 300 ema Cheesy

whatdya know.. I need to get fiat to exchange.. people are getting fleeced out of their coins...well in my opinion they are.. for the first time in a long time buying can lower my avg buy in price Cheesy

I think I shall ... mind you I know that I won't be able to cause I got no fiat in the exchange and the chart shows these lows usually = big investors snapping up a huge amount when the volume allows it.

The volume does seem to be up, and sometimes one wonders if the volume is attributed to bots buying and selling with one another.... eh heh he. Here, it seems that some real people have gotten into the volatility game.

Quote from: seleme on March 28, 2014, 12:44:50 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 28, 2014, 12:42:48 AM

Quote from: Kramerc on March 27, 2014, 11:55:00 PM

Its 2 AM. I got my popcorn with me, but I must say, I am experiencing a certain level of fear.

Sadly, I can't buy moar, my fiat is running out.

Same here.... that's what I keep saying when guys say that they would buy a shitload of BTC if the price went to $100 per BTC... the problem is I would NOT have any money left by the time it got that low.

That's why it is good to day trade during downtrends. If you catch some bounces, you have similar amount of the money all the way down. I manage to do that so far since ATH and actually gained 300-400% but lot of that were some very profitable non btc vs usd trades though.

So far I have NOT been good enough at predicting direction... so sometimes I think we are gonna stay in a range for a while, and I get left in the dust.. accordingly, I have been erring on the side of HODL.

Quote from: Zapffe on March 28, 2014, 01:33:33 AM

Don't waste your energy on telling me that I'm cruel, I know already that I can be cruel.

Fair enough. However, I believe that NOT only was I saying that you were cruel, I was also suggesting that there is a certain amount of lack of foundation to your criticisms. You are criticizing something for the sake of criticizing, but you do NOT have anything meaningful to offer as a substitute. And, even your criticism of the contribution is exaggerated to such an extent that the criticism loses its persuasiveness.

Quote from: Zapffe on March 28, 2014, 01:33:33 AM

Try to use your energy on thinking about the fact that we are on a slow long downtrend, that is hurting most of the people involved with bitcoin, and there is a reason for all of this happening.

You are lacking specifics here in terms of the time line that you are talking about. Are you saying that we are going to zero or $300 or what? And, then are we moving back up?

Ok. you are a bear who is NOT invested in BTC, but you want to save us investors from BTC. I think that there is enough information out there that we do NOT necessarily need someone coming to the thread and just criticising and saying sell, sell, sell. That is NOT really helpful.

Anyhow, I do NOT have any problems with posters believing that BTC price is bearish.. as long as they can back it up with particulars and reasons.. most of the time, the back up is bullshit... just like you see in the mainstream press.. lack of foundation... some truth, but mostly inaccurate. So if you are making some prediction about a downward trend, you need to be more specific. I generally see upward, if I look from 2011 to present. Went from less than a $1 per BTC to $500-ish per BTC.... that seems upward to me, in a very short period of time... less than 4 years.

Quote from: stan.distortion on March 28, 2014, 01:53:40 AM

Quote from: rocks on March 28, 2014, 01:52:53 AM

Stop going back up, I want cheaper coins.

$10 sucky sucky economist coins?

EDIT: hmm... how about suckycoin? Fixed rate of $10

Sometimes, it seems that the chance for the cheap coin comes, and guys may NOT recognize the buy opportunity.. and before you know it, the opportunity IS GONE.... still pretty cheap coins, CURRENTLY at $500, but it was even better at $465... I bought at $485, and I feel pretty good about that.. even though I could have gotten them a little cheaper....and MAYBE just MAYBE the opportunity will come again within the next 24 hours... I think my next buy point will be around $460-ish... depending upon how long it takes to get there.... and if we do get there.

Quote from: vleroybrown on March 28, 2014, 02:20:02 AM

loving the volatility as anything else seems unhealthy in Bitcoin markets! Still waiting for that dip to the 3s to buuuuuyyyyyy!!!

It seems very likely that you are gonna be waiting for a while, and such dip into the 3s may NOT happen... buen suerte

Quote from: vleroybrown on March 28, 2014, 02:29:27 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 28, 2014, 02:27:47 AM

Quote from: vleroybrown on March 28, 2014, 02:20:02 AM

loving the volatility as anything else seems unhealthy in Bitcoin markets! Still waiting for that dip to the 3s to buuuuuyyyyyy!!!

It seems very likely that you are gonna be waiting for a while, and such dip into the 3s may NOT happen... buen suerte

Yeah may I borrow your crystal ball pls! I wanna buy moar u lucky SOB..

Surely, each of us in this thread come to varying conclusions about the probabilities of one thing happening or another thing happening, and some posters will have better abilities with these predictions. I certainly am NO expert, and my comment reflects my pessimism that we are going to get into the 300s... Three weeks ago, I believed that we would NOT get into the $500s and about a week ago, and even a few days ago, I was pretty pessimistic about the possibility that we would get into the $500s - actually, I believed we would NOT get below $530.

So, I do NOT have any specific insight concerning the direction of BTC.. yet my comment reflects my sentiment. If I wanted into BTC, I would NOT wait until $399. I would likely buy in increments, including buying today.

However, it sounds as if you have a different buying strategy. So for example, if you already bought a bunch of BTC at lower prices, then you may be willing to wait for $399 or whatever your buying point happens to be. Currently, my next buying point is at $460-ish, if the price gets there in the next 24-48 hours. However, if the price shoots up to $550 and then back down, I may buy again at $500. So, each of us may have our own strategy, and certainly, I am NO expert...especially regarding your own situation.

Quote from: seleme on March 28, 2014, 02:30:20 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 28, 2014, 02:28:23 AM

Quote from: seleme on March 28, 2014, 02:23:37 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 28, 2014, 02:22:10 AM

Quote from: Dr. LY on March 28, 2014, 02:13:49 AM

Is the retrace over already? Angry

If you want my advice, this retrace will not be over for many hours if not days, and even forever.

Today was an exercise in picking bottoms for longs. not a good day for opening shorts.

Dr. Ly, if you ask me, ask chessnut about that tomorrow. You might get completely different answer Grin

Seleme, you always misunderstand me. dont mock me. I talk in probabilities, when I note the market is changing, it has strategical significance, not always long term weight. I never knew there was going to be chinese FUD, and yet I sold spontaneously at 577 because I was flexible enough to change as the market changed. dont follow my advice if you dont understand it.

I don't mock you mate, chilling a bit Grin

. Though I don't like TAers who change their mind on such short terms as you do.

I've added this to my post:

Quote

Though I almost agree with him. WOn't give any bold statements and it might go down from here again but I can smell trend reversal coming soon. I don't see lot of interest of selling under 500$.

Some predictions are more all over the place than others, and sometimes, the seeming internal contradiction may just be due to hitting "POST" too early. Occasionally, I have been guilty of such lack of clarity and internal contradictions.

And, sometimes, if we are NOT really sure which way we are predicting, we may have a tendency to express that in a less than clear manner.

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 28, 2014, 02:35:55 AM

Quote from: vleroybrown on March 28, 2014, 02:29:27 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 28, 2014, 02:27:47 AM

Quote from: vleroybrown on March 28, 2014, 02:20:02 AM

loving the volatility as anything else seems unhealthy in Bitcoin markets! Still waiting for that dip to the 3s to buuuuuyyyyyy!!!

It seems very likely that you are gonna be waiting for a while, and such dip into the 3s may NOT happen... buen suerte

Yeah may I borrow your crystal ball pls! I wanna buy moar..

magic 8 ball works better.
i did what the site said, i contrasted very hard on the question "will bitcoin go into the 300's"

and the first answers wasn't exactly conclusive... so i asked again just to be absolutely sure

so there you have it!

Hey for the ones here criticizing line drawing, this 8 ball may be better?

Even though I am NOT going to use it, THANKS ADAM. This method may help some people who may NOT have yet figured out what to do.... ... My default if I do NOT know what to do is HODL, which is NOT exactly unique. Angry

Quote from: spooderman on March 28, 2014, 02:43:35 AM

Quote from: RHCwebhosting on March 28, 2014, 02:37:13 AM

Investors panic as Bitcoin is only up +8000% in 2 years instead of +11000%
Grin

yes because guise like the ones in that picture tend to do things on a very long term basis :|

This capital gainz thing is a pain, it's gonna take me ages to work out how much I need to pay to keep the gang away from me.

YOU only have to pay when you cash out; however, if you have used your bitcoins to purchase various items, then you may NOT have gotten a gain... I think that there is some discretion on how to figure it out.. so yes, maybe you will have to do some finagling..

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 28, 2014, 03:07:32 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 28, 2014, 03:05:00 AM

Quote from: spooderman on March 28, 2014, 02:43:35 AM

Quote from: RHCwebhosting on March 28, 2014, 02:37:13 AM

Investors panic as Bitcoin is only up +8000% in 2 years instead of +11000%
Grin

yes because guise like the ones in that picture tend to do things on a very long term basis :|

This capital gainz thing is a pain, it's gonna take me ages to work out how much I need to pay to keep the gang away from me.

YOU only have to pay when you cash out; however, if you have used your bitcoins to purchase various items, then you may NOT have gotten a gain... I think that there is some discretion on how to figure it out.. so yes, maybe you will have to do some finagling..

its reasonable to assume they dont care about buying a beers and a burger at a bar with some bitcions

but if you buy a lambo with mad bitcoin profits.... Goat!

I think if you buy a lambo, then you better figure out how to make that long term rather than short term capital gains.... ... .. and surely, more difficult to hide a lambo...

Is that why you were drunk off your ass the other day, Adam? trying to avoid your uncle.... hehehe sam that is... Cheesy

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 28, 2014, 03:20:58 AM

Quote from: gizmoh on March 27, 2014, 02:53:06 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 27, 2014, 02:50:50 PM

Under 8 mil total bid sum on Stamp. LOL, this gonna get violent soon. Cheesy

For every SODL, there is more dirty fiat hiding and waiting to buy back.

Really? Is that why the price has been going down for months?

Yes the price has been going down since December 2013; however, the price has been going up since January 2011.

Quote from: TERA on March 28, 2014, 03:53:19 AM

Quote from: vleroybrown on March 28, 2014, 03:43:28 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 28, 2014, 03:41:22 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 28, 2014, 03:20:58 AM

Quote from: gizmoh on March 27, 2014, 02:53:06 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on March 27, 2014, 02:50:50 PM

Under 8 mil total bid sum on Stamp. LOL, this gonna get violent soon. Cheesy

For every SODL, there is more dirty fiat hiding and waiting to buy back.

Really? Is that why the price has been going down for months?

Yes the price has been going down since December 2013; however, the price has been going up since January 2011.

Thts whts drives such a market posed to lift off.. You can't find anybody who doesn't like the hodling technique

You found one. I don't like the holding technique. For one, it assumes that bitcoin is immortal and that it's upwards growth and price trend are infinite. I do not have such a faith. Have a stubborn hold mindset about any investment and one day you will end up going down with a sinking ship even when the chart told you a hundred times that you needed to sell.

I agree that there is nothing wrong with that kind of healthy skepticism. That is why a large number of people in the bitcoin space are expecting bitcoin to have a lot of upside potential. So, yes, maybe you will find some other investment that is more suitable towards your risk tolerance and your comfort level and your feelings /assessments about future potential.

I get the sense that as you are leaving, there are plenty more people willing to buy your bitcoins and to take your place.. and bitcoin is like no other investment... .. .... though you can find what is suitable to your own.. situation and needs..

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 28, 2014, 04:38:15 AM

Quote from: windjc on March 28, 2014, 03:59:34 AM

I just feel sorry for Jorgi.

With the Chinese exchanges most likely shutting down and/or moving elsewhere, he'll need to find a new, unimportant, meticulous, and painstaking data and stats hobby now that there will be no information about when the fucking Chinese people sleep.

Going to be a bear market for Jorgi and his misguided fact checks. Wink

Yes, sniff sniff. And no more Chinese Slumber predictions. Cry

Perhaps I can still use the method to predict the number of pages in this thread. Huh

You will have to figure out some kind of new Quackery system to maintain your relevance and your current notoriety on this thread.

Quote from: stan.distortion on March 28, 2014, 12:07:04 PM

Anyone that's been around bitcoin for a while has seen this before, investors are patiently sitting on the sidelines waiting for the bears to run out. Anything other than that would be a poor strategy as bitcoin has a good history of repeating patterns, check the end of the fall from the rise in April Wink

EDIT: August 2012 is probably a little closer to the current situation, not much in the difference though.

I am more or less in agreement with you; however, how do we know that they are waiting exactly.. b/c we cannot see money on the exchanges.. and then how fast can they get their money into BTC, if their money is NOT on the exchanges?

Quote from: Zapffe on March 28, 2014, 01:26:39 PM

Quote from: fonzie on March 28, 2014, 01:20:48 PM

Quote from: rjp55 on March 28, 2014, 01:18:15 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 28, 2014, 01:16:05 PM

I'm so glad this little breakout is happening. phew. now it might hold relatively still so I can enjoy my weekend before the next drop. I hope.

You've gone from a ~~good poster~~(postin bullish stuff) to ~~Fonzie/Mah~~(postin bearish/critical stuff) status in a short period of time. Welcome to the ignored group.

FTFY

You will be shunned from the cult if you don't cheer along mindlessly! I myself have discovered that it's more dignified here to be the controversial figure who doesn't fit in very well. Because those who are weak spirited and easy to manipulate, seem to fit in best. It's like that with every other cult.

I would NOT call affiliates in this group a cult... that's just baloney talk... some people agree with others and some people substantiate what they say..and some people follow easily... there is a mixture herein.. also there is a mixture of bears and bulls and some back up their statements better than others.. Does NOT seem to rise to the level of any cult. in my thinking...

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 28, 2014, 02:36:16 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 28, 2014, 01:50:48 PM

the china news is made up FUD FUD FUD

Until it is known whether the bank ban is true or false, "Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt" is what a sensible trader should feel. Wink

Yeah... we need to hear one way or another... which i am inclined to think that it is NOT true... maybe some restrictions.. but total ban.. seems very unlikely

Quote from: Zapffe on March 28, 2014, 04:10:24 PM

Ok, I'll leave you guys with your high hopes of moons and trains. I'll have to go and when I'll return, then this username is probably banned already because of the cries of rpietila. But see you all later under a new name.

Why bother? You have HARDLY invested in bitcoin, and you really do NOT seem very interested.... except to denigrate various strategies.. without really providing insight...

Quote from: tailor on March 28, 2014, 04:32:07 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 28, 2014, 04:23:17 PM

Quote from: Zapffe on March 28, 2014, 04:10:24 PM

Ok, I'll leave you guys with your high hopes of moons and trains. I'll have to go and when I'll return, then this username is probably banned already because of the cries of rpietila. But see you all later under a new name.

Why bother? You have HARDLY invested in bitcoin, and you really do NOT seem very interested.... except to denigrate various strategies.. without really providing insight...

Yes, expel the unbeliever!

hehehehe... My point is NOT about unbelieving .. but about contribution and substantiating contributions... If a person merely criticizing BTC without adding value concerning why.. then what good does that provide... Also, some posters seem to be real denigrating about the contributions of others... which really does NOT seem to add value but instead attempt to distract and to side-rail meaningful discussions...

Quote from: tailor on March 28, 2014, 05:25:47 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 28, 2014, 04:53:54 PM

Quote from: tailor on March 28, 2014, 04:32:07 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 28, 2014, 04:23:17 PM

Quote from: Zapffe on March 28, 2014, 04:10:24 PM

Ok, I'll leave you guys with your high hopes of moons and trains. I'll have to go and when I'll return, then this username is probably banned already because of the cries of rpietila. But see you all later under a new name.

Why bother? You have HARDLY invested in bitcoin, and you really do NOT seem very interested.... except to denigrate various strategies.. without really providing insight...

Yes, expel the unbeliever!

hehehehe... My point is NOT about unbelieving .. but about contribution and substantiating contributions... If a person merely criticizing BTC without adding value concerning why.. then what good does that provide... Also, some posters seem to be real denigrating about the contributions of others... which really does NOT seem to add value but instead attempt to distract and to side-rail meaningful discussions...

A living example of a strawman setup by the original poster Cheesy

The post I responded to, which you later edited, simply responded "Don't bother" to Zapffe.

You are talking about me, engaging in strawman... I dont think so... I am just engaging in a conversation.. and I am suggesting reasons why Zapffe seems to be wasting everyone's time and NOT contributing... but anyhow, I am basing on a set of communications with him... Yes, I could be proven wrong that he is in fact a good contributor... but in my experience with his various posts, he seems to admit that he is NOT really contributing in any kind of meaningful way.. of course, he does NOT use those words or come to that conclusion.. but whatever, if posters admit that their purpose is to just spread FUD, then what good are they? NOT MUCH>.. and accordingly, they should be removed, expelled, etc... .. .

Of course, I have NO power or authority to influence how much trolling is tolerated by the forum... and they come to their own judgements regarding whether posters (members) are contributing to the forum

Quote from: BitChick on March 28, 2014, 06:01:29 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 28, 2014, 05:55:21 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 28, 2014, 05:49:08 PM

Well, there will not be any denial or confirmation of the rumor until Monday 00:00 UTC (08:00 CST) at least. Huobi's traders have finally gone to bed it seems.

If I had to guess what will happen until then, I would say that the price will probably drift down a bit more, as the less active clients become aware of the ban and show up in the marketplace, and skeptical traders get contaminated by the general doubt. Say, the price may reach 2800-2900 CNY by Sunday night.

On Monday, if the report is proven false, the price should quickly return to 3500-3600 CNY. If the report is confirmed, it will presumably start falling again; how deep and how fast, I can't guess.

Is this reasonable? Too obvious?

if they ban it will you then buy a bitcoin?

What would cause JorgeStolfi to buy? Has he ever mentioned what the "tipping point" for him would be? I am curious.

Jorge may be kind of like Peter Schiff... He probably has his own little secret stash... b/c ultimately, he realizes that it has various good upside investment potential.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 28, 2014, 06:41:55 PM

Quote from: BitChick on March 28, 2014, 06:01:29 PM

What would cause JorgeStolfi to buy? Has he ever mentioned what the "tipping point" for him would be? I am curious.

I already said that. I won't buy it for speculation, investment (whose "sale" I consider a scam), or even to help "the cause" (which at this point seems to have been totally derailed by "libertarians" and greedy financiers).

I do agree that there seem to be a lot of libertarians in bitcoin, and attempting to suggest that bitcoin is the libertarian solution. There is some truth in some of these libertarian claims, but I try NOT to let them bother me to the extent that some of the ideas seem contrary to mine. In other words, I believe that there is room in the bitcoin world for NON-libertarians and NON libertarians can positively influence the direction of bitcoin.

greedy financiers are definitely in the midst.. but they are NOT gonna derail bitcoin.. at least NOT in the near term future.

So, derail is the wrong word.. influence and manipulate, yes to some extent, but derail.. nope... dont think so...

Quote from: infofront on March 28, 2014, 06:47:07 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 28, 2014, 06:41:55 PM

Quote from: BitChick on March 28, 2014, 06:01:29 PM

What would cause JorgeStolfi to buy? Has he ever mentioned what the "tipping point" for him would be? I am curious.

I already said that. I won't buy it for speculation, investment (whose "sale" I consider a scam), or even to help "the cause" (which at this point seems to have been totally derailed by "libertarians" and greedy financiers).

I may buy some cryptocoin someday to pay for something, if I find that it will be easier/cheaper/safer/faster/etc than the usual means (cash, check, bank remittance, cerdit card , debit card, ...). Which does not look very likely right now. Sad

Quote from: BitChick on March 28, 2014, 06:17:15 PM

If he changes his mind and buys some he should update [ his signature ]. Wink

Of course.

Bitcoin is inherently libertarian.

Dont think so.. .even though bitcoin may be very useful tool for many libertarian considerations

Quote from: BitChick on March 28, 2014, 07:45:23 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 28, 2014, 07:41:27 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 28, 2014, 06:41:55 PM

Quote from: BitChick on March 28, 2014, 06:01:29 PM

What would cause JorgeStolfi to buy? Has he ever mentioned what the "tipping point" for him would be? I am curious.

I already said that. I won't buy it for speculation, investment (whose "sale" I consider a scam), or even to help "the cause" (which at this point seems to have been totally derailed by "libertarians" and greedy financiers).

I do agree that there seem to be a lot of libertarians in bitcoin, and attempting to suggest that bitcoin is the libertarian solution. There is some truth in some of these libertarian claims, but I try NOT to let them bother me to the extent that some of the ideas seem contrary to mine. In other words, I believe that there is room in the bitcoin world for NON-libertarians and NON libertarians can positively influence the direction of bitcoin.

greedy financiers are definitely in the midst.. but they are NOT gonna derail bitcoin.. at least NOT in the near term future.

So, derail is the wrong word.. influence and manipulate, yes to some extent, but derail.. nope... dont think so...

I have always considered myself a right-wing conservative. However, I posted a quiz on here in the politics section a while back that showed me that I actually leaned more left and towards libertarian in my thinking! I was actually shocked. Maybe my involvement in Bitcoin has changed me in more ways than I realize. Wink

Now I just need to go buy a gun . . . . Grin

Yeah.. sometimes labels are NOT very helpful, and people tend to be all over the place, once you get into some of the details about how different particulars may play out from issue to issue. I frequently bet more pissed off about money influence in politics rather than variations in what people believe b/c ultimately, democracy should allow for the input of people in guiding the direction of society. Yet, frequently, we may have a few rich people making such decisions, which can be very irritating to regular folks.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 28, 2014, 07:59:55 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 28, 2014, 07:43:44 PM

Quote from: infofront on March 28, 2014, 06:47:07 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 28, 2014, 06:41:55 PM

Quote from: BitChick on March 28, 2014, 06:01:29 PM

What would cause JorgeStolfi to buy? Has he ever mentioned what the "tipping point" for him would be? I am curious.

I already said that. I won't buy it for speculation, investment (whose "sale" I consider a scam), or even to help "the cause" (which at this point seems to have been totally derailed by "libertarians" and greedy financiers).

I may buy some cryptocoin someday to pay for something, if I find that it will be easier/cheaper/safer/faster/etc than the usual means (cash, check, bank remittance, cerdit card , debit card, ...). Which does not look very likely right now. Sad

Quote from: BitChick on March 28, 2014, 06:17:15 PM

If he changes his mind and buys some he should update [ his signature ]. Wink

Of course.

Bitcoin is inherently libertarian.

Dont think so.. .even though bitcoin may be very useful tool for many libertarian considerations

Bitcoin is peaceful and free market. That's what "libertarian" means.

From our previous discussions, I already recognize that there is more devil in the details of your thinking about how peaceful and freemarket play out, but nonetheless, who can disagree with peaceful and free market.. to the extent that something like that may be an aspiration...

NOT this cat.... I mean I dont disagree...

Quote from: igorr on March 28, 2014, 08:21:29 PM

we enter into the fifth month of constant decline in prices,
Check Trend line from decembar 2013 year !

Trend and price before 1 month:

Trend and price today:

See you again within a month with trend lines and current price.

These are the kinds of trend-lines and bare assertion claims that i find problematic b/c the starting point is the ATH... It makes little to no sense to be to start from the ATH in order to make what point? It may make a point about a current situation that is occurring, but it does NOT make any meaningful point about the overall health and/or value of bitcoin.... In my view focusing on that time period, remains just out of context and a form of limited information.

Quote from: aminorex on March 28, 2014, 08:37:31 PM

Wow, reading Rui Ma's interview, I am very impressed with the vigor of the bitcoin startup community in China. They are going to add an enormous amount of value to the BTC economy, on a very accellerated schedule. They seem to have a huge advantage over U.S. entrepreneurs in this space.

I admit I have rather resented the rumors and the IP issues, the scams and the mining competition coming out of China, but they are also building out infrastructure with a seriously ambitious vision, and substantial funding.

the chinese are doing this in a lot of areas.. including investing in gold and investing in high speed trains and that is another reason we have to take with a grain of salt these claims that chinese dont like bitcoin... they love it... and they want to move away from the dollar as their investment vehicle...

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 28, 2014, 11:47:13 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on March 28, 2014, 11:39:20 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 28, 2014, 11:37:36 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 28, 2014, 11:23:35 PM

"cheap coins" - another cultist term

Imagine you were selling bitcoin futures contracts. What would someone have to pay you now in return for your bitcoin a year from now?

These coins are going up and you know it. You just don't know how much they're going to go down first.

No, I dont know that. And clearly most of society disagrees as well.

Wasn't addressing you, Sir. I don't know what you know and don't care.

The term "most of society disagrees as well" means almost nothing in this context.... ... so speaking about NOTHING... .. jibber jabber... at best

Quote from: fonzie on March 29, 2014, 01:47:54 AM

Quote from: creekbore on March 29, 2014, 01:42:40 AM

Mornin' all!!

Can't really be arsed reading back through 20 odd pages but I think I get the idea from the last couple: cultists have their fingers in their ears, Chessnut clinging to EW for comfort while TERA is a lone voice of reason along with...Fonzie. Strange days indeed Cheesy

Hey Fonzie...where in Asia are you at present?

Right now i´m in Malaysia-Kuala Lumpur, preparin for my flight back home on Sunday. I had awesome weeks , i have visited Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and New Guinea.
23 flights in 6 weeks Cheesy

Why aren't you out meeting girls, rather than trolling the BTC threads?

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 29, 2014, 02:55:25 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 29, 2014, 02:46:42 AM

Quote from: igorr on March 28, 2014, 08:21:29 PM

blah blah blah.

These are the kinds of trend-lines and bare assertion claims that i find problematic b/c the starting point is the ATH... It makes little to no sense to be to start from the ATH in order to make what point? It may make a point about a current situation that is occurring, but it does NOT make any meaningful point about the overall health and/or value of bitcoin.... In my view focusing on that time period, remains just out of context and a form of limited information.

Extrapolating that trend line, BTC should trade for -3$ by mid July. Yes, that's right. People will pay you to take bitcoins off their hands.

quite amazing what people come up with...... that seems to make very little sense if you carry it to its logical end point... Grin

Quote from: fonzie on March 29, 2014, 03:12:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 29, 2014, 03:09:45 AM

Quote from: fonzie on March 29, 2014, 01:47:54 AM

Quote from: creekbore on March 29, 2014, 01:42:40 AM

Mornin' all!!

Can't really be arsed reading back through 20 odd pages but I think I get the idea from the last couple: cultists have their fingers in their ears, Chessnut clinging to EW for comfort while TERA is a lone voice of reason along with...Fonzie. Strange days indeed Cheesy

Hey Fonzie...where in Asia are you at present?

Right now i´m in Malaysia-Kuala Lumpur, preparin for my flight back home on Sunday. I had awesome weeks , i have visited Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and New Guinea.
23 flights in 6 weeks Cheesy

Why aren't you out meeting girls, rather than trolling the BTC threads?

My girlfriend is with me, this would have been complicated. Cheesy

Haven't you ever heard of the expression that "you do not bring sand to the beach?" Wink

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 29, 2014, 08:24:02 AM

The snap back could be huge. Remember that whale-led short squeeze to $710?

I don't know what to think.

I have been considering whether there is enough BTC trade volume or if there is enough fiat on the exchanges.. but then when the price rise momentum begins, the fiat seems to come from somewhere - out of the woodwork and out of the blue....

On the other hand, dont we usually get BTC downtrends on the weekend.. especially if there is ambiguity (uncertainty) hanging over us?

I am quite surprised to be lingering in this $500 range... right where the truth of the poll questions outcome as "yes" is triggered every 30 minutes.

Currently, I am thinking that we may get down to $450, but maybe NOT much lower than that.. though I am probably going to buy at $480 or $470 b/c I have some insecurities and lack of confidence in y prediction about how low we may be going. That's my current feeling of the down potential based on the current FUD hanging in the air... I am also thinking there is Nothing really to the rumor about any extensive BTC restrictions in China.

Quote from: chessnut on March 29, 2014, 09:03:28 AM

..... 16,000,000 USD is still not a powerful number in this market, be it long or short. but not to contradict myself, I believe short squeezes will affect the market not because there are more or less of them, but because of who has gone short, and where they have gone short. The key is panic, panic moves the market by market orders.

Those traders sitting quite content with longs are not necessarily going to be squeezed if they prove to be stout, 16 million USD can be ignored.

What I see is that the market found a natural bottom after panic selling. that pressure has been relieved, and there is no more until something bad is confirmed by the chinese govt, and even then, the market is partially prepared.

I keep thinking if Bitcoin can get into the 100 billion dollar market cap, then the manipulation will become a lot more difficult... but if the market is still driven by 200 million on the exchanges, then the exchanges can drive some of the volatility b/c it does NOT take a lot of money to manipulate... even compared to gold.. with approximately a 7 trillion dollar market cap.

Quote from: podyx on March 29, 2014, 10:56:21 AM

I believe we'll see consodilation for some days or maybe even weeks before we start a new uptrend and a new journey to a new ATH (my guess is $6k)

When we gonna get to 6k?

I am sorry but I proclaimed that I was a HODL kind of guy... however, if we get to 6K very quickly, as in within the next year, I am going to have to SODL a bit in order to relieve myself somewhat... and then buy in again at $4000... he he he... .. but then if we convert to mBTC, then that will only be $6 per mBTC and $4 per mBTC respectively.. .what a bargain!!!!!!!

Quote from: JCviggen on March 29, 2014, 11:13:29 AM

Quote from: podyx on March 29, 2014, 10:56:21 AM

I believe we'll see consodilation for some days or maybe even weeks before we start a new uptrend and a new journey to a new ATH (my guess is $6k)

IMO bitcoin will not become worth multiple thousand dollars as long as many people expect this to happen in the near future. I think it more likely that 2014 will become the first year where BTC ends lower on dec 31st than where it started in January.

January 1st, BTC was around $750.. and through the month it approached $1k... but returned to around $750. Are you saying BTC is going to be lower than $750 or lower than $1k on December 31? There is too much of a range in your prediction. Also, what is going to happen between April 2014 and December 2014? We gonna go up above ATH and stay there for a while and then crash in the end of December? Your prediction lacks in specifics... except for your seeming suggestion that BTC is more or less flat and/or downtrending for the year rather than uptrending...

I cannot really foresee BTC floating below $750 all 2014... but I could see BTC floating below 1K for most of the year... but it also seems quite likely that we are going to see an ATH sometime during 2014... too... what do you think, JCviggen, more specifically?

Quote from: oyvinds on March 29, 2014, 02:43:55 PM

Quote from: aminorex on March 29, 2014, 01:46:14 PM

Quote from: JCviggen on March 29, 2014, 01:29:12 PM

Quote from: aminorex on March 29, 2014, 01:15:51 PM

At current difficulty growth rates, if hardware margins go to zero, by July it will cost $3000 to buy and operate hardware which produces 1 btc after 1 year of operation.

How is that relevant? It doesn't change the equation of how much money needs to come into BTC. Difficulty will not grow forever, it's likely to overshoot putting small scale miners into the red, sure. But that doesn't drive the price.

Margins drive price. The equation is a constraint but cannot drive price and it only applies under the assumption that the coins are sold. If I buy a miner in the full knowledge that it will produce 1 coin costing $3000, that means I do not plan to sell that coin until it goes over $5000. Supply withheld from the market is no supply at all.

The only miners selling coins at this price are wealthy attackers who want to burn fiat in order to drive btc down. They exist only in the minds of the paranoid.

You got it backwards.

BTC price drives demand for mining equipment. If you can spend $10k on equipment that will generate virtual currency you can sell for $20k then people will want and buy that equipment.

A lower BTC price does not translate to less coins being sold by miners, it just means there will be less demand for mining equipment.

If you buy a miner in the full knowledge that it will produce 1 coin costing $3000 then you're a complete idiot. You're just desperately trying to convince yourself that the BTC price will go up because you believe people are willing to do what is obviously very bad investments.

I have seen this $3k being thrown about... and is it a very accurate calculation or even approximation or price to produce a BTC in a year or so? I understand difficulty going up etc etc... but it if it is really true that cost to produce a BTC is going up to anywhere in the ballpark of $3k per BTC within a year or so, then we are gonna have to have BTC prices above $3k in that same time frame.. otherwise it makes NO logical sense that very many people or machines would engage in such BTC mining.

Quote from: creekbore on March 29, 2014, 02:50:36 PM

Quote from: aminorex on March 29, 2014, 02:25:39 PM

Quote from: ardana123 on March 29, 2014, 02:13:51 PM

. Lots of money was lost there, putting people permanently out of the game. Gox was one of the major, if not the major propellant upwards. With that money out of the game and not supporting the high price anymore, the price is set to go a lot lower than 500.

Permanently out of the game means dead. I don't think they died.
Gox victims have a lot of btc to buy if they hope to recover.

Yeah, that's how people think..."hhmmm...I lost a load of money on BTC...I have no money left...I'd better work harder to buy MORE BTC".

C'mon...

Hey.... that is what i have been doing.. more or less... It is called dollar cost averaging and I do NOT believe that i am crazy.. b/c it is an investment strategy.. have you heard of it? It is a pretty solid investment strategy when predicting that an asset is going to go back up in value. I began investing in BTC at $1200. And, BTC prices have been declining ever since. I have been buying BTC when the prices gets lower.

My average buy in price began at $1200, and currently, my average buy-in price is down to about $670 - including transaction fees. So, one of the ways that I get into the black, is if the price goes back up above my average price per BTC. If BTC prices continue to fall, as you naysayers seem to be predicting, then I will lose quite a bit. At this point, if I were to sell my BTC holdings, out of fear that the BTC sky is falling, I would lose about 25% of my investment funds...

I am NOT going to sell any of my BTC at this time and lock in losses, b/c I am quite confident that we are going back up above my average buy in price. If the price continues to lower or linger in these lower price areas, then my average BTC buy in price will continue to come down, and accordingly, the BTC price does NOT have to go up as high for my BTC investment portfolio to be back in the black... .

Anyhow, should take place within the next month or two.. and if it does NOT, I am willing to wait it out.. b/c initially I though that I was investing long term.. .in the at least 2 year time frame, absent some catastrophic reason that would signal cashing out... which has NOT taken place, yet.

Quote from: bitgeek on March 29, 2014, 02:57:20 PM

Gox is not out, they still admit to hold 1/3 of the money, the quiestion now is when will they pay back? I don't really understand what's going on with them, they lost some BTC and still hold some, why not redistribute those among their clients to at least show some good will?

When GOX is under the supervision of various courts, their hands are likely QUITE tied concerning whether and how they could engage in any kinds of distribution... b/c court(s) have to agree to distribution and various creditors have to be given an opportunity to be heard and to sufficiently understand the situation in order to be given an opportunity to be heard... once in the court system.. distribution becomes much delayed by the whole process of allowing the various stake holders to be heard and to be notified about the situation.. which seems to be evolving as GOX "finds" more coins.

Quote from: S3052 on March 29, 2014, 05:47:42 PM

big move coming soon, probably in the next 48h

Which direction, and how do you know?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 29, 2014, 05:56:14 PM

Quote from: S3052 on March 29, 2014, 05:47:42 PM

big move coming soon, probably in the next 48h

Of course, in 48 hours we will probably know whether the "PBoC ban" rumour is true or not. Either way, we can expect a large change in price.

The price is NOT likely to spurt up in the event that the PBOC ban rumor is NOT true.. but the price may spurt down if the rumor were to be true (highly unlikely that the rumor is true in my opinion).

And, clarification.. when is that going to come.. maybe the rumor will linger for a week or more.. no assurances to get clarification any time soon

Quote from: podyx on March 29, 2014, 06:12:50 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 29, 2014, 05:53:21 PM

Quote from: podyx on March 29, 2014, 10:56:21 AM

I believe we'll see consodilation for some days or maybe even weeks before we start a new uptrend and a new journey to a new ATH (my guess is $6k)

When we gonna get to 6k?

I am sorry but I proclaimed that I was a HODL kind of guy... however, if we get to 6K very quickly, as in within the next year, I am going to have to SODL a bit in order to relieve myself somewhat... and then buy in again at $4000... he he he... .. but then if we convert to mBTC, then that will only be $6 per mBTC and $4 per mBTC respectively.. .what a bargain!!!!!!!

Well, I expect a large bubble in june or july

A more correct price at the time of the $6k peak however would be $1.5k-3k

But people are gonna get greedy and overbuy of course, like we all seen, atleast 1 more time, probably 2 then we will see a more stable rise

Past events might not replay but I believe it will simply because bitcoin is new and nobody really has a clue what it fucking is

However, i am no professional and refrain from helping with financial advises, hence my signature Cool

this is simply my belief and im just posting for perspective/discussion

Also, I largely base this prediction on https://www.tradingview.com/v/7YEmxS3K/ (press play button at right) which shows we are at the bottom

And the reason I believe in that chart is because I really do believe bitcoin is a honeybadger. If it wasn't for chinese people who brought us to 1.2k I think there would be other people bringing us above $1k because it undervalued and then comes overbuying. And overselling right after that. And then it repeats because of statements I made above. This would make no sense in a normal market but again, I draw this conclusion because it's something new and nobody really knows what it is and what it's future holds, if any.

That chart however is probably slightly bullish because it's only showing the year of 2013.
It is suggesting, on average, a ~17x rise every year

I believe 10x is a more accurate pattern which the last 5 years have been suggesting too, in the big picture that is.

YOU may be correct, but I really have a hard time believing any straight line analysis for any asset class, and models that show various phases of an asset make more sense to me, like we are going to have spurts, and those spurts depend upon adoption, marketing, political circumstances, legal framework, competition, manipulation and other factors and how those factors may play out. Surely, we have had the performance of various kinds of assets that may kind of resemble bitcoin in a variety of ways..and then again, bitcoin has some unique properties..

Also, retroactively, you may be able to look at any specific asset and see that it has performed in a straight line, even though it may NOT have seemed straight, while going through the ups and downs... ..

Sometimes a very high growth rate may cause a pulling back b/c the asset class's growth has outpaced its infrastructure... anyhow, even getting a doubling of bitcoin on a yearly basis would be amazing.. I doubt that we can really sustain a ten times grown on a yearly basis for any extended period of time.. even though maybe we could get 10 times growth for the next 2 to 3 years... and surely it is possible for longer.. but real pie in the sky to be banking on any kind of expectation that would generate that kind of growth over that period of time.

Quote from: aminorex on March 29, 2014, 06:41:03 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 29, 2014, 06:30:22 PM

Quote from: creekbore on March 29, 2014, 02:50:36 PM

Quote from: aminorex on March 29, 2014, 02:25:39 PM

Quote from: ardana123 on March 29, 2014, 02:13:51 PM

. Lots of money was lost there, putting people permanently out of the game. Gox was one of the major, if not the major propellant upwards. With that money out of the game and not supporting the high price anymore, the price is set to go a lot lower than 500.

Permanently out of the game means dead. I don't think they died.
Gox victims have a lot of btc to buy if they hope to recover.

Yeah, that's how people think..."hhmmm...I lost a load of money on BTC...I have no money left...I'd better work harder to buy MORE BTC".

C'mon...

Hey.... that is what i have been doing.. more or less... It is called dollar cost averaging and I do NOT believe that i am crazy.. b/c it is an investment strategy.. have you heard of it? It is a pretty solid investment strategy when predicting that an asset is going to go back up in value. I began investing in BTC at $1200. And, BTC prices have been declining ever since. I have been buying BTC when the prices gets lower.

Yes, you are probably behaving rationally under your assumptions, to a high degree -- whether you are correct or incorrect about your price trajectory assumptions is another question. But I think creekbore's point remains: Mass psychology is somewhat less rational, more brutish and reactive. "Once burned, twice shy" is an apt aphorism describing his inferred assumptions about market behaviour.

Personally, I believe that you are giving Creekbore too much benefit of the doubt. But to each his own.... To me, Creekbore seems to be engaging in broad generalizations that may have some truth to them, but largely he seems to be denigrating others for being stupider than he is.

I do agree that frequently people will engage in bad investment and or speculation tactics, as the ones you describe, such as going into an investment balls to the walls, and then they cannot tolerate the unexpected price drop. For example, if I had gone into BTC balls to the walls at $1200, then currently, I would be panicking with prices floating at $499... I am NOT panicking b/c I am continuing to buy.. but surely, I am more nervous now than when the price was higher and my number were looking better.

Anyhow, with a balls to the walls strategy at $1,200, it would seem less likely to recover that investment that would be nearly 60% down versus an investment that continues to work the market and to be averaging $670 BTC price and is about 25% down.... Neither place is a good one, but the 25% down seems to be a better place.

Quote from: aminorex on March 29, 2014, 07:22:52 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 29, 2014, 07:06:14 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 29, 2014, 05:56:14 PM

Quote from: S3052 on March 29, 2014, 05:47:42 PM

big move coming soon, probably in the next 48h

Of course, in 48 hours we will probably know whether the "PBoC ban" rumour is true or not. Either way, we can expect a large change in price.

The price is NOT likely to spurt up in the event that the PBOC ban rumor is NOT true.. but the price may spurt down if the rumor were to be true (highly unlikely that the rumor is true in my opinion).

And, clarification.. when is that going to come.. maybe the rumor will linger for a week or more.. no assurances to get clarification any time soon

What rumor? You mean the rumor Jorge just started? I hadn't heard of a "ban" until Jorge mentioned one. All that Caixin said was that withdrawals from exchange bank accounts would cease on the 15th. Deposits are already halted. BTC trading continues regardless. The only interesting questions are what the change in funding methods implies for the volume and price in onshore RMB, and how that affects the free markets.

YOU mean that Jorge started all of this rumor about BAN? FML..... Cheesy

When Jorge speaks, the BTC world listens!!! OM f'n G!!

Quote from: spooderman on March 29, 2014, 07:24:47 PM

A while away we learned that some internet trolls are paid to do what they do by some government agencies.

Jorge is a good example of this.

This the simplest explanation for someone spending so much time talking about something they don't rate very highly.

This DOES seem to be a very plausible explanation.

And, sometimes in this thread, I am amazed by the quantity of FUD and naysayers participated herein b/c in reality a forum such as this should have a larger percentage of bulls and circle jerkers... instead we are continuously dealing with the negativity .. and maybe some of them are legitimate bears investing in BTC and trying to profit off of shorts, etc etc... but others seem to be engaged in a sort of sabotage attempt, manipulation and disinformation campaign that seems to be coming from another deeper and eviler place and yes seems likely that they are being paid by someone... Maybe NOT government agencies, but more likely by financial institutions.. but there could be some government entities that are motivated and or funded by banking-type interests? which we know that this frequently occurs when wars are fought over oil and resources.. the USA people do NOT necessarily profit in any kind of meaningful way as compared with the billions in profits that go into private hands of the filthy rich.

Quote from: tailor on March 29, 2014, 07:46:34 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 28, 2014, 07:29:24 PM

Quote from: tailor on March 28, 2014, 05:25:47 PM

A living example of a strawman setup by the original poster Cheesy

The post I responded to, which you later edited, simply responded "Don't bother" to Zapffe.

You are talking about me, engaging in strawman... I dont think so... I am just engaging in a conversation.. and I am suggesting reasons why Zapffe seems to be wasting everyone's time and NOT contributing... but anyhow, I am basing on a set of communications with him... Yes, I could be proven wrong that he is in fact a good contributor... but in my experience with his various posts, he seems to admit that he is NOT really contributing in any kind of meaningful way.. of course, he does NOT use those words or come to that conclusion.. but whatever, if posters admit that their purpose is to just spread FUD, then what good are they? NOT MUCH>.. and accordingly, they should be removed, expelled, etc... .. .

Of course, I have NO power or authority to influence how much trolling is tolerated by the forum... and they come to their own judgements regarding whether posters (members) are contributing to the forum

You missed my point completely. I replied to your original post before you'd edited it, hence the strawman. Perhaps I should have said moving target. Either way I simply meant my response was meaningless when set against the edits.

That said, who defines "contributing"? Those holding BTC and not wanting to hear anything that suggests money might be lost? Those looking to short? Bears? Bulls? Dinosaurs? Trolls (aka, anyone holding a viewpoint different than one's own)? Everything said is a contribution in this cesspool - at least any lurker probably thinks so.

You seem to be engaging in your own various strawman creations by striving to create various points to argue with me about seemingly NON-issues...

Are these arguments meaningful to the thread or enjoyable by anyone reading the thread or a big waste of time for me to continue to engage in such? who knows? I am willing to entertain you a bit, though... to the extent that it makes some sense to go down these various rabbit holes and your various points do NOT get too lost into some attempt to argue over minor details.. such as saying to me "you changed your post." So what? I did NOT change my post after I read your message I changed my post about 5 minutes after I made it and before I read any responses to my post... so who cares if I changed my post after I had made it? apparently, you care.. b/c apparently, you invested some time into responding to the earlier variation of my post... I am sorry about that, but it was NOT my intention for anyone to spend extra time responding to my later revision... . but in the end, is this really an issue to pursue? Seems a bit trivial to me.

Also, in my subsequent post, I expressed my opinion to suggest that some kinds of behavior is NOT contributing to this forum or this thread in any kind of meaningful way. Ultimately, administrators decide what is contributing and what is meaningful and what is NOT and whether they believe that the posts or the members are helpful to their forum/thread.

Obviously, I do NOT agree with your assessment that everyone is contributing NO matter what they post.. .but does it really matter what I think about that.. it is my opinion, and I have NO authority in this forum... except maybe to the extent that I MAY be able to convince someone with authority about my point of view regarding contribution and/or meaning... and I DONT even really know who those people may be without maybe researching into it. I believe that creator(s) of threads have some authority over their thread and then there are various moderators assigned to certain thread areas who would also have some authority. Also, I believe this forum is fairly tolerant to various kinds of expressions, but they do seem to ban some members, as well..

Quote from: rpietila on March 29, 2014, 09:10:09 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 29, 2014, 08:19:34 PM

And, sometimes in this thread, I am amazed by the quantity of FUD and naysayers participated herein b/c in reality a forum such as this should have a larger percentage of bulls and circle jerkers... instead we are continuously dealing with the negativity .. and maybe some of them are legitimate bears investing in BTC and trying to profit off of shorts, etc etc... but others seem to be engaged in a sort of sabotage attempt, manipulation and disinformation campaign that seems to be coming from another deeper and eviler place and yes seems likely that they are being paid by someone... Maybe NOT government agencies, but more likely by financial institutions.. but there could be some government entities that are motivated and or funded by banking-type interests? which we know that this frequently occurs when wars are fought over oil and resources.. the USA people do NOT necessarily profit in any kind of meaningful way as compared with the billions in profits that go into private hands of the filthy rich.

You are right. The cost to employ a sockpuppet is so little that it does not even count. I had a troll in my thread who admitted that before getting banned Shocked

Facts are that many months of time has passed since November and almost the whole world knows about Bitcoin now (only when you know, you can buy), and it takes on average 12-24 months for people to buy. So just look at an explosive adoption peaking in 12-24 months, which means millions of users this year and 10s of millions next year. Or more. And the absolutely ridiculous number of bitcoins in existence - 11 million, if you discount Satoshi coins and lost coins. For a $500,000, which is nothing, you can buy 1/10,000 of ALL BITCOINS IN EXISTENCE.

So the reason why the price is cheap is: somebody wants to do it, but they cannot coerce people to sell if they believe that it goes to the moon. So they instill as much fear as possible. Pretty well done.. Roll Eyes

Just remember - you only make money if you BUY in this kind of situations and SELL when it is toppy. Other way round you are sheep, baa baa.

I had something like this in my mind too about some kind of lag time for people to become aware about bitcoin and start to get into bitcoin in various ways. I believe that we also have various issues and needs in the bitcoin sphere to improve upon the user interface in various kinds of way to make bitcoin easier for regular people to point and shoot... .. and to do so with enough ease that there is little to no fear that some scheister is going to run off with his/her life savings. Currently, these various interfaces are all over the place.. and there are few ease of use interfaces... including the fact that a company known for its ease of use (Apple) seems to be working against bitcoin...

Quote from: chessnut on March 29, 2014, 09:20:08 PM

its telling me go short.

I do NOT understand why the bottom line is shorter than the top one. You are just trying to line them up with what you consider to be logical points? I am NOT suggesting any manipulation.. I am just wondering, since there seems to be quite a bit of line drawing variation.

Quote from: chessnut on March 29, 2014, 09:40:13 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 29, 2014, 09:32:08 PM

Quote from: chessnut on March 29, 2014, 09:20:08 PM

its telling me go short.

I do NOT understand why the bottom line is shorter than the top one. You are just trying to line them up with what you consider to be logical points? I am NOT suggesting any manipulation.. I am just wondering, since there seems to be quite a bit of line drawing variation.

im not sure what you mean by the bottom line shorter, do you mean why have I shaved off the tip of the low?

because Im trying to illustrate what I believe is a wedge to the best of my ability, not because it's shaped like a pretty triangle, but because it is a contracting range, and liquidity is dry.

Those lines meet the points of greatest co-incidence. Also notice how the bottom was quickly rejected out of the the territory of 465, and rested on the lower trend line I have drawn.

I don't know enough about line drawing in order to know the more relevant questions to ask. My initial impression was that the top line was measuring from a different time period; however, if you are saying that this chart is measuring BTC performance from the same time period ( one day or two days or three days), then fine.. you may want to use that as a guide to decide probabilities that BTC price is going to go in one direction or another.

In other words, I may have initially misread the time period for which you were drawing the lines...

Quote from: windjc on March 29, 2014, 09:41:43 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 29, 2014, 09:35:59 PM

Quote from: windjc on March 29, 2014, 09:30:41 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 29, 2014, 09:28:56 PM

Quote from: rpietila on March 29, 2014, 09:10:09 PM

So the reason why the price is cheap is: somebody wants to do it, but they cannot coerce people to sell if they believe that it goes to the moon. So they instill as much fear as possible. Pretty well done.. Roll Eyes

Just remember - you only make money if you BUY in this kind of situations and SELL when it is toppy. Other way round you are sheep, baa baa.

Rather: the reason price is still up is because those who hold thousands of coins need other people to invest so that the price will go up. So they pay for ads and positive reviews, to keep spreading lies and hiding the uncomfortable facts. Tongue

Jorgi, are you a paid troll? Serious question.

Of course the answer is not. Are you a paid salesman?

Why so defensive?? If you are a paid troll, are you allowed to deny it? I guess you would be. But your defensiveness makes it seem like you're more guilty.

You are just being argumentative Windjc... for a couple of reasons... first of all, Jorge has denied this accusation several times and second, even if it were true, he is NOT going to admit it... so, it is a waste of time to ask or to continue to ask and it seems to be just provoking an argument for NO Apparent good reason...

Quote from: aminorex on March 29, 2014, 09:56:39 PM

Let's try to be nice now. I know it can be challenging when you're born to contend for domination of the universe, but let's all try.

TA from another thread:

Quote from: g4c on March 29, 2014, 09:05:39 PM

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.

Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

First : Is there some kind of scale in the chart? Second: Past is not a predictor of future performance. Third: there may be different variables at play that affect the present performance to make it different from the first - intensity of government attention and sabotage.. or mt gox variable...

Don't get me wrong... I believe that is a more persuasive chart as compared with some other charts that I have seen... b/c I get the sense that the various variables that could change future performance are NOT significantly different to make a difference.. at least at the moment...

Quote from: KFR on March 30, 2014, 02:16:52 AM

Quote from: Richy_T on March 30, 2014, 02:13:52 AM

Regarding, Jorge, the level of paranoia in here is getting a little scary (and I talk as someone who tries to maintain a high level of paranoia). Jorge is wrong (IMO) but sincere. No one is seriously going to be trying to control the market through this forum (unless it is the market for pictures of rockets and trains).

I really don't think anyone's seriously worried about that. I think people are just losing patience with all the repeatedly flogged dead horses and straw men. Wink

It does get a little irritating to read.. from time to time.. especially when it seems pretty apparent that they poster knows s/he is presenting a debunked argument or inflammatory and /or exaggerated phraseology just to seemingly spread FUD

Quote from: jonoiv on March 30, 2014, 02:37:13 AM

Is it me or does the OP keep changing the Poll question after people voted to suit his bullish agenda?

I am sure the question I voted on said "will the price be below $500". So i voted yes.

Now it has a different question, with the same votes/results...

or should I stop drinking?

Yes... ADAM seems to be completely out of his mind with poll questions ... the questions are like bitcoin, difficult to predict and manipulated

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 30, 2014, 02:44:39 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on March 30, 2014, 02:37:13 AM

Is it me or does the OP keep changing the Poll question after people voted to suit his bullish agenda?

I am sure the question I voted on said "will the price be below $500". So i voted yes.

Now it has a different question, with the same votes/results...

or should I stop drinking?

pretty sure i reset the votes, i try to change the poll daily and always reset the votes.

It woudl be interesting if the poll results were shown.. historically, like chart buddy.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 30, 2014, 02:45:24 AM

Quote from: Blitz on March 30, 2014, 02:42:07 AM

Warned of what? I'm not following.

That insistence on discussing Jorge Stolfi instead of his posts may necessitate a lesson that will not be forgotten.

O>K>... it is fair to say that it is more important to talk about substance rather than ad hominem attacks... but part of the attack on you relates to some of your stupid-ass substance.. and some of your whimsical claims that are couched in an appearance of professionalism that is deceptive. NOW you seem to be sinking to even lower level of what seems to be a kind of threat. Why NOT just keep posting and making your arguments rather than escalating to eye for an eye type talk?

Quote from: seleme on March 30, 2014, 03:18:31 AM

Just checked my Virwox transaction history. I bought my first Bitcoin on March 29th 2013.

Happy anniversity, and I am sure she is happy that you remembered.

Quote from: BitChick on March 30, 2014, 03:28:11 AM

Quote from: seleme on March 30, 2014, 03:23:52 AM

Bitchick is a legend, always positive since day one she posted here

Ahh. I guess I am extremely optimistic. BitChicksHusband was warning me today that on the next run in price we will sell some coins. Embarrassed

Why does this make me sad? I then argue with him about it. I think I have a problem. I am more than a Bitcoin Hodler. I am a Bitcoin Hoarder!

There is a time for everything. A time to hold and a time to sell. I will just have to let go as painful as it might be. Wink

Maybe it depends upon how many BTC you have? If you have less than 100BTC, then maybe would NOT want to get rid of too many, at that $3,000 price, but if you have 1000BTC, then getting rid of 100BTC may be easier to deal with at $3,000

Quote from: BitChick on March 30, 2014, 03:45:47 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 30, 2014, 03:42:34 AM

Quote from: BitChick on March 30, 2014, 03:28:11 AM

Quote from: seleme on March 30, 2014, 03:23:52 AM

Bitchick is a legend, always positive since day one she posted here

Ahh. I guess I am extremely optimistic. BitChicksHusband was warning me today that on the next run in price we will sell some coins. Embarrassed

Why does this make me sad? I then argue with him about it. I think I have a problem. I am more than a Bitcoin Hodler. I am a Bitcoin Hoarder!

There is a time for everything. A time to hold and a time to sell. I will just have to let go as painful as it might be. Wink

Maybe it depends upon how many BTC you have? If you have less than 100BTC, then maybe would NOT want to get rid of too many, at that $3,000 price, but if you have 1000BTC, then getting rid of 100BTC may be easier to deal with at $3,000

That is my point. We are not that early of adopters so we don't have a huge amount and that is why I just want to hold as long as possible. But there comes a point where one can sell systematically and buy back in during consolidation periods. It does make sense to a certain degree.

You are about 8 months earlier than me... so in that regard, makes perfect sense to me for you to take some profits once in a while... I am NOT quite to that stage yet, but if the price reaches even $1500 I may take a little profit... Of course, we have to consider how fast the price is going up.. and if there is a run, then that seems to be a good time to take some profit.. and buy back in later.

Then, in essence, at some point, you may be playing completely with house money. And, that point of having a considerable amount of one's investment as house money, is a very decent place to be, if one can get to that place (with some luck and some timing and some strategy).

Quote from: BitChick on March 30, 2014, 04:37:52 AM

Quote from: creekbore on March 30, 2014, 04:31:27 AM

Quote from: KFR on March 30, 2014, 04:11:23 AM

Quote from: aminorex on March 30, 2014, 03:54:28 AM

Quote from: KFR on March 30, 2014, 03:38:53 AM

Whatever else is true, I think most people consider that anyone resorting to threats in any argument instantly loses any shred of credibility they had remaining.

I would agree with that, but to be fair, Jorge was being taunted like a nerd set upon by a pack of schoolyard bullies. No matter how reasonable and well-socialized and mature you may be, that sort of thing can elicit rash behaviour. It's not an environment of rational, respectful argument. It wasn't even worth the label "argument".

I've spoken rashly here under less oppressive circumstances than that.

Well yeah I get that... and I do sympathise. But it's not exactly his first day at the Internet. Wink

Furthermore I appear to be included in the threat target group and I really don't think I'm guilty of conducting a concerted effort to direct any vitriol towards him - certainly never anything of a personal nature. I've just expressed my increasing disappointment and frustration about his rather disingenuous 'technique', which is to present an agenda-driven opinion as if it were based on facts and objective research - not to mention consistently and consciously recycling already debunked arguments.

I too would prefer that all the people he antagonises would show some respect and civility - but throwing your toys out of the pram and threatening to 'teach people a serious and unforgettable lesson with just a few keystrokes' sounds like something an angry teenage script kiddy might say; not an academic of his years and experience.

The cultists picking on Jorge again while forgetting a significant fact.

Jorge is Jorge, one of the few with the balls to front up on his identity here, a fact that is regularly used against him. It seems bizarre that he can be accused of being insincere by people who hide behind pseudonyms.

As regards 'civility'...I've yet to see Jorge be uncivil to anyone here, while he is regularly subject to personal abuse.

Jorge seems like a good guy. I think the only thing that is frustrating to some of us is why he doesn't want to "join the fun" so to speak and just pick up a coin or two. Wink

I suppose the frustrations of those that do not feel that he is "part of the team" is what can come out in antagonistic ways. We should appreciate his honesty and his contribution to the board in that he brings different viewpoints here.

That said, I honestly wish he would buy a coin. I wish everyone I know would. Not for selfish reasons, but out of a sincere and altruistic desire for them to have something invested in one of the greatest opportunities that may come up in our lifetime.

He does NOT have to buy a whole BTC. He can buy .1BTC or some other convenient amount in order that he can experience the process of buying and maybe trading and transferring, etc. etc. If you are gonna be a scholar on any subject, you should gain some experiences withing.. especially both the eases and the frustrations of such. Actually, it may give Jorge more to bitch about (and to educate us in that regard) when he figure out that it can be fairly technically difficult to accomplish certain kinds of bitcoin related tasks.... and that in other regards, it can be very easy and smooth to accomplish other tasks.

Quote from: KFR on March 30, 2014, 04:39:12 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 30, 2014, 04:14:44 AM

Quote from: KFR on March 30, 2014, 03:38:53 AM

[ ... ]

It is not a "threat in an argument"; it has nothing to do with bitcoin, it is about attacking my person instead of my posts.

Why would I try to hide the fact that I delivered an apt and well deserved lesson to someone?

Well, 'delivering a lesson' is clearly a euphemism. Tongue

I can only speak for myself and you know that I'm not attacking you personally.

I have simply been asking you to try to be more objective and to endeavour not to mislead people. Otherwise you are guilty of almost the very same 'crime' that you accuse these mysterious Bitcoin 'salesmen' of committing.

I'm sorry if you feel that this particular line of argument is ad hominem but if you are persistently selective about the arguments that you either ignore or respond to and if you consistently try to rehash dead issues in an effort to reinforce your own worldview - well, that's just not the same position that you're claiming to take. It is an intellectually dishonest technique - at the very least it is certainly perceived as such. I suspect that's what antagonises people so much. Ad hominem is pretty much the only option they have left - not that I consider it to be a particularly honourable or even appropriate option.

So in the meantime you will continue to find that people either ignore your contributions and/or treat you with disdain, which is a very great shame because they would otherwise be most welcome.

And I'm afraid that some people will always take things personally and direct insults towards you but that there is life on the Interweb. I speak from experience here - I've suffered much worse unwanted forum attentions without resorting to threats.

I, and I'm sure many of the other grown-ups here, would be immensely grateful if you just took a moment to thoroughly challenge yourself and see that your position is just as you claim it to be.

We do want you here Jorge - well I certainly do. But sometimes you make it damn hard to take you seriously. Cool

I can assure you that any ad hominem attacks directed at you would be treated with immense disdain, by both those who agree and disagree, if people felt that you were approaching things in a truly scientific, objective and/or academic way, which after all is the banner under which you are standing.

I mean no disrespect whatsoever and could not be more sincere. And in that spirit I shall endeavour to refrain from commenting on your posts from now on. Feel free to reciprocate the goodwill intended. Wink

Very well said KFR... though I think you were being too nice.... if that is possible.. b/c I have been getting very frustrated with the intellectual dishonest technique tactic that sometimes is subtle and can trick people in their thinking.. and b/c I have the sense that Jorge is a smart guy, I am inclined to think that he is employing this technique on purpose.. and without adequate disclaimers... which causes me to want to be less polite in my criticisms.

Also, I find it problematic if you are providing assurances NOT to comment on his posts.. maybe that could be your overall practice; however, sometimes it is necessary for people to really call others on their misleading posts rather than saying that you will abstain... .. anyhow, in the end, you need to decide what makes you comfortable.

Quote from: creekbore on March 30, 2014, 04:43:50 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 29, 2014, 07:58:19 PM

Quote from: aminorex on March 29, 2014, 06:41:03 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 29, 2014, 06:30:22 PM

Quote from: creekbore on March 29, 2014, 02:50:36 PM

Quote from: aminorex on March 29, 2014, 02:25:39 PM

Quote from: ardana123 on March 29, 2014, 02:13:51 PM

. Lots of money was lost there, putting people permanently out of the game. Gox was one of the major, if not the major propellant upwards. With that money out of the game and not supporting the high price anymore, the price is set to go a lot lower than 500.

Permanently out of the game means dead. I don't think they died.
Gox victims have a lot of btc to buy if they hope to recover.

Yeah, that's how people think..."hhmmm...I lost a load of money on BTC...I have no money left...I'd better work harder to buy MORE BTC".

C'mon...

Hey.... that is what i have been doing.. more or less... It is called dollar cost averaging and I do NOT believe that i am crazy.. b/c it is an investment strategy.. have you heard of it? It is a pretty solid investment strategy when predicting that an asset is going to go back up in value. I began investing in BTC at $1200. And, BTC prices have been declining ever since. I have been buying BTC when the prices gets lower.

Yes, you are probably behaving rationally under your assumptions, to a high degree -- whether you are correct or incorrect about your price trajectory assumptions is another question. But I think creekbore's point remains: Mass psychology is somewhat less rational, more brutish and reactive. "Once burned, twice shy" is an apt aphorism describing his inferred assumptions about market behaviour.

Personally, I believe that you are giving Creekbore too much benefit of the doubt. But to each his own.... To me, Creekbore seems to be engaging in broad generalizations that may have some truth to them, but largely he seems to be denigrating others for being stupider than he is.

Damned with faint praise (I think).
Anyway, I don't claim to be smarter (or more stupid) than the next man.

But the fact is lots of people lost money (cash or coins) on Gox...the fallout from that has been huge not just in publicity but word of mouth also. I'd suggest most of the money lost on Gox was not 'cultist coins' but Mr Average spending some investment money via what they'd read/seen in the media. They've lost that money now and they won't be coming back for a long time I suspect. Public confidence in a market/investment drops...it takes time to rebuild...time is the one thing 'new' BTCers don't have....everyone wants to double their money in a week. Those who say through 2012 know different.

If you have a different hypothesis, I'd love to read it.

I am not denigrating those people (indeed I fully understand their attitude). What I have trouble with is the idea they are going to rapidly reinvest in BTC (and lets recall most here castigated these people for using Gox in the first place).

I have NO meaningful assessment to broadly categorize conduct b/c I am of the sense that there is going to be considerable variance regarding how people behave and how much knowledge they have and whether they act on their knowledge. Some people are really dumb and/or act on their emotions, and some people are lucky or unlucky.

Many people chose NOT to invest in Gox after about mid-2013 b/c there seemed to be fishy practices at GOX, and others took their money out of GOX.. .and still others purposefully went to Gox for various reasons, including some who wanted to go and to get into GOX during the last week of its being opened for business b/c they though that it woudl be a great opportunity to pick up some BTC around $100. As we found out in retrospect, those who either knowingly or unknowingly took risks with GOX are likely going to have lost a certain percentage (possibly) all of their GOX BTC portfolio.

NO matter what happens with GOX investors, there will be variation with what these many investors do in the future. Some will jump back into BTC, and others will be scared off of BTC. Probably you recognize some of this variance in how investors will respond... but you make your statements in such a way to fail to account for such variations... which end up coming across as denigrations on a broad level... which may have some truth to it, but does NOT apply to everyone in the category.. and may NOT even apply to many in the category b/c the category or the referent has been left vague.

Quote from: Taras on March 30, 2014, 05:36:13 AM

Down we go everyone
Time to figure out how to buy at this low price

I am NOT sure whether I am trying to figure out how.. but instead when. I would prefer to buy once at the lowest price... but If I were to know for sure that the price is going low by at lease $20 or $30, then I would sell and buy back.. but I am TOO chickenshit for that. I will probably buy a little once the price goes below $470, if it does.. and if it goes below $450 buy again... I had been doubting that the price would go below $450, but NOW we are getting closer and closer to such... so the odds for such a downfall seem to be getting greater and greater

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 30, 2014, 05:49:36 AM

Quote from: Xell on March 30, 2014, 05:24:43 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 30, 2014, 05:17:24 AM

They officially denied a rumor a week earlier. I'm sure they think they have better things to do than deny every rumor that comes along. They had time to confirm on Frday also and they didn't do that.

Maybe but note that that this 'rumour' was in Chinese news, and also that rumour-spreading online is illegal in China. You wouldn't expect them to deny every online rumour by Tom Dick & Harry but when it's published in the news there is much more reason to consider making a statement, no?

I expect they will likely make a statement one way or the other this Monday or Tuesday. The market is down because of uncertainty. A confirmation may even paradoxically cause the market to go up once the uncertainty is removed. It took a while, but that's what happened when Silk Road got busted.

Just keep in mind that these rumors have been going around for four months. Gox rumors turned out to be true, so this might also. It's a real possibility, just less likely than the market has priced in, in my opinion.

I keep wondering about what incentive the chinese have to clarify this.. They really like the uncertainty and snatching up MOAR coins.. .. maybe the rumor will float for a week or two and as the 15th gets closer chinese officials may feel a need to clarify the situation at that point.. or a week or so before the 15th?

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 30, 2014, 06:01:19 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 30, 2014, 03:58:42 AM

A weekend dip to 480 by Saturday night, not even seriously testing $466 resistance. We are on the way back up. An official denial of the rumor by the PBoC (should that happen) should take us to $540 in the short run, close to $600 eventually provided no new disasters surface.

I estimate this China ban is 90% priced in since rumors started four months ago, so even if it turns out to be true, the down side is much smaller than the potential upside if again it proves to be false. This is a good time to buy a small amount, IMHO.

Probability the story is fake or just plain wrong I estimate to be 51%, based on no confirmations yet by anybody, despite a market plunge and four days of looking.

Once again, I was too early. We were all expecting this test of support, so my gut was right and my second guess was wrong. There may even be a test of $400 support if $466 doesn't hold.

Now we get to see who's smarter than me and waited to buy.

So my finger has been on the buy trigger for about the last hour and a half while the price has been floating between $470 and 480.. but the price seems to be inching downward.. ... I am remaining a bit anxious and usually I can relax a bit.. once I have bought.. but according to you... maybe buy at $467 and then maybe again at $402.. if it gets there...

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 30, 2014, 06:02:17 AM

Quote from: BitcoinAwesomeMan on March 30, 2014, 05:55:08 AM

Quote from: silverfuture on March 30, 2014, 05:52:45 AM

squeezing for all it's worth.... the question is...will i give up my stake in bitcoin?
Nope. it is worth so much more. I am the patient
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuLy9shJNYc
.

Buy on fear. Always. Bought as much as I could Wink

So you've been buying non stop the last few months? How much did you lose?

my strategy too.. has been buying BTC as the price goes down.. and hoping that I am buying at the lowest, but the price keeps going down.. been buying BTC since late November. Have NOT lost anything yet, b/c my BTC portfolio is increasing... How about you shroomskit? what is your stake? what are you invested in? you making any money or taking any risks? you making any bets?

Quote from: creekbore on March 30, 2014, 06:49:21 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 30, 2014, 06:07:50 AM

There is no guarantee it will go back up again.

You missed the news: when the descending triangle breaks the third ascending Elliot Wave confirming the exponential trend line corresponding to Mynott's adoption curve then all the institutional money (which has been placed off the exchanges in 'dark orders' with illuminati miners) will enter the market guaranteeing the price to climb to USD$100K.

Or something like that.

Finally some decent humor that does NOT seem to directly criticize or denigrate anyone specifically...... Grin

Just a general anti-bull assessment

Quote from: creekbore on March 30, 2014, 07:03:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 30, 2014, 06:43:43 AM

NO matter what happens with GOX investors, there will be variation with what these many investors do in the future. Some will jump back into BTC, and others will be scared off of BTC. Probably you recognize some of this variance in how investors will respond... but you make your statements in such a way to fail to account for such variations... which end up coming across as denigrations on a broad level... which may have some truth to it, but does NOT apply to everyone in the category.. and may NOT even apply to many in the category b/c the category or the referent has been left vague.

I think you are barking up the wrong end of the stick here.

It was Aminorex who claimed that the Gox investors would be re-entering the market and that they could be considered market-movers in response to my question of new money(@Am...sorry if this summary is clumsy but hey). You could as easily level your accusations of 'broad brushstrokes' at Aminorex as at me.

I'm not denigrating anyone for being in Gox or investing in BTC, beetles or anything else. I'm simply saying that when a financial scandal becomes global news the people impacted tend not to reinvest in the same market. And many will tell their friends and family not to go near BTC.

Sure there will be variance but the majority will at best stay on the sidelines and wait and see. Wouldn't that be a fair comment given what we are seeing in the markets -- people are leaving.

Likely more people are coming into BTC rather than leaving... I say this b/c more and more people are finding out about BTC on a global level and in many countries, more and more channels are opening up to liquidate BTC in many countries, a large number of network innovations and developments are taking place (infrastructure). There are a variety of factors affecting bitcoin prices besides number of people "in."

Maybe we get a price drop to $300.. ? I doubt it, but such a price drop is possible.. especially a flash crash of such. Actually, I did NOT think that BTC would be this low. Three weeks ago, I bought at $610, and I thought that BTC price was going up from there. Then kept buying MOAR BTC several times below $610.. while kept on thinking that we were NOT going to drop lower in price. but BTC prices keep getting lower. So far there is really no negative news about BTC and the fundamentals of BTC are still strong and solid.. so anyhow, it may take BTC a few months to get BTC price's upward momentum back.. though many people are thinking that the upward movement in price will come sooner than that.

Quote from: creekbore on March 30, 2014, 07:09:34 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 30, 2014, 06:51:16 AM

Quote from: creekbore on March 30, 2014, 06:49:21 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 30, 2014, 06:07:50 AM

There is no guarantee it will go back up again.

You missed the news: when the descending triangle breaks the third ascending Elliot Wave confirming the exponential trend line corresponding to Mynott's adoption curve then all the institutional money (which has been placed off the exchanges in 'dark orders' with illuminati miners) will enter the market guaranteeing the price to climb to USD$100K.

Or something like that.

no, no, wrong creekbore.

see me after class.

Here Sir, I've done my lines.

CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon!
CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon!
CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon!
CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon!
CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon!
CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon!
CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon! CCMF, BTC will go to da moon!

x exp(x+y)

Good job!!!!!!! That's the spirit!!!! You left out BUY, BUY, BUY.... and HODL, HODL, HODL... but that's o.k. .. you are in a better mindframe now. May have even made you feel better, no?

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 30, 2014, 07:17:36 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 30, 2014, 07:12:49 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 30, 2014, 06:01:19 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 30, 2014, 03:58:42 AM

A weekend dip to 480 by Saturday night, not even seriously testing $466 resistance. We are on the way back up. An official denial of the rumor by the PBoC (should that happen) should take us to $540 in the short run, close to $600 eventually provided no new disasters surface.

I estimate this China ban is 90% priced in since rumors started four months ago, so even if it turns out to be true, the down side is much smaller than the potential upside if again it proves to be false. This is a good time to buy a small amount, IMHO.

Probability the story is fake or just plain wrong I estimate to be 51%, based on no confirmations yet by anybody, despite a market plunge and four days of looking.

Once again, I was too early. We were all expecting this test of support, so my gut was right and my second guess was wrong. There may even be a test of $400 support if $466 doesn't hold.

Now we get to see who's smarter than me and waited to buy.

So my finger has been on the buy trigger for about the last hour and a half while the price has been floating between $470 and 480.. but the price seems to be inching downward.. ... I am remaining a bit anxious and usually I can relax a bit.. once I have bought.. but according to you... maybe buy at $467 and then maybe again at $402.. if it gets there...

I don't know shit but my feeling says we're going down WAY more. Simply because there is no reason to stop going down. Whales push us down, sheep panic sell, bears cry about cheap coins. Whatever the price is it must always go lower because lower is cheaper.

I would NOT follow your prediction.. b/c you are pretty much always saying the same thing with NO context, little substance, and NOT very convincing... BTC doom and gloom over and over.. I would think that most of the people willing to follow what you are suggesting, would be out by now.. maybe would have left around $550... HOW about you.. do you have any BTC? Why don't you respond?

Quote from: KFR on March 30, 2014, 07:43:47 AM

PBoC has just confirmed that it was not the source of the latest ban FUD. This comes from reliable Chinese news soure Weigo-Xiuxiu Nau. Props to Proudhon for the tip. Cool

Does this mean that we should buy, now? we're no t going lower?

Quote from: arepo on March 30, 2014, 08:21:01 AM

Quote from: fotosonics on March 30, 2014, 08:02:17 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 30, 2014, 07:57:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 30, 2014, 07:55:20 AM

Quote from: KFR on March 30, 2014, 07:43:47 AM

PBoC has just confirmed that it was not the source of the latest ban FUD. This comes from reliable Chinese news soure Weigo-Xiuxiu Nau. Props to Proudhon for the tip. Cool

Does this mean that we should buy, now? we're no t going lower?

well thats what Ive been saying, the bulls have the upper edge to any scenario.

this could take a real hike if it is true.

lol panic buy on huobi, bitstamp, even LTCUSD -facepalm-

we'll see in a bit if the market actually agrees that this new source is authoritative and the message is significant. we still haven't broken out of the short-term downwards channel on stamp.

Don't the Sunday rallies come a little bit later.?

IN other words, isn't it too early for a Sunday rally?

NOT enough potential volume?

Quote from: chessnut on March 30, 2014, 08:34:04 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 30, 2014, 08:30:30 AM

I don't get it? If the rumous is true the price goes up?

sure, if the rumours are true the price goes up, you do get it.

I could NOT wait any longer.. TOO MUCH anxiety to be waiting for any further price drops... and the price may NOT come down any further.. who knows?

Thus, I bought a little bit at $482 on Coinbase, which surprisingly brought my average buy-in BTC price from $670 to the lucky number of $666.... that is a bitcoin favorite, no? So, about $180 to go up, and I will be back in the black. Unless we get a train or a rocket, I am pretty confident that I will be buying again before we reach $666.

At the moment, I set my next buy-in price at $450, if we get there in the next day or two.. otherwise, I will reassess my next buy in price.

Quote from: chessnut on March 30, 2014, 09:16:20 AM

How do you test if a rumour is true?

sell 1k coins. hits a bottom? the insiders are buying - then proceed to buy all the coins you can get your hands on.

The punchline seems to be that at this time no one really knows for sure whether we are dropping more or NOT... I just bought.. so I am happy for a while... until Sub $450 (if so). I'm gonna go to sleep, and maybe I will wake up at $540, but I anticipate that I will wake up to continued hovering in the sub $500 territory between $480 and $500 - just a guess... I am NOT going to set my BTC price alarms ... b/c I need my beauty sleep... and if it flash crashes below $450, and I miss it, OH well. I'm running out of fiat, anyhow.

Quote from: creekbore on March 30, 2014, 10:26:40 AM

Quote from: T.Stuart on March 30, 2014, 07:29:59 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 30, 2014, 07:23:48 AM

Quote from: creekbore on March 30, 2014, 06:49:21 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on March 30, 2014, 06:07:50 AM

There is no guarantee it will go back up again.

You missed the news: when the descending triangle breaks the third ascending Elliot Wave confirming the exponential trend line corresponding to Mynott's adoption curve then all the institutional money (which has been placed off the exchanges in 'dark orders' with illuminati miners) will enter the market guaranteeing the price to climb to USD$100K.

Or something like that.

Finally some decent humor that does NOT seem to directly criticize or denigrate anyone specifically...... Grin

Just a general anti-bull assessment

Although I have a feeling it could be self-deprecating Cheesy

Someone gets it

@JJG, thanks for the 'sort of' compliment but I can't recall 'denigrating' or 'criticising' anyone.

Those who insist on making endless predictions may well be the target of my scorn but I attempt to make it gentle and to the point -- pricking pomposity is neither denigration nor criticism. And as someone mentioned above humility is in short-supply around here.

You seem to have a bee in your bonnet about my comment about Gox users not returning to the market, I've explained it endlessly but if I've offended you in some way I sincerely apologise...no persoanl offense was meant and if it makes you feel better I lost a couple of coins.

And I've done my own analysis, TA and the like but what's the point in posting an opinion contrary to what the 'group' thinks -- contrarians are instantly dismissed here, they must have a 'secret agenda' or simply 'don't understand'. Poking fun at the constant Canute-like proclamations is pretty much all that remains.

So, I am simply a fool: "Remember, Caesar, thou art mortal."

I believe that I have made whatever point that I was attempting to make.

Regarding ongoing and endless predictions, we are in a speculation thread. Accordingly, I believe people can make predictions in either direction, and some predictions will be more convincing than others based on a variety of factors including evidence to support the prediction(s) and whether they line up with various presumptions that people have. Merely b/c the group is inclined one way or another does NOT necessarily make them sheeple nor automatons - even though some of those will exist in any group.

Quote from: Davyd05 on March 30, 2014, 12:16:17 PM

Quote from: mmitech on March 30, 2014, 12:15:06 PM

2011 repeating ? will 2014 be the year of the depression ? I don't get what is happening but even if you try to explain it to me it just wont make sense...

The Chinese inspire fear, but most of all people want coins for cheap then market constantly Cheesy

Seems like manipulators have been taking advantage of low volume to continue to pressure downward momentum based on what seems to be rumors, at this point. I remain baffled as well concerning how long this downward trend will last. The bid side on stamp looks like a mountain and the sell side is fairly flat but still we go down in the direction of the mountain.

Quote from: podyx on March 30, 2014, 02:23:32 PM

even some of the permabulls are bearish

the bottom must be here soon...

Certainly can make a guy a bit depressed to see such low numbers... and there is NO real solid explanation for such.... mostly FUD

Quote from: dnaleor on March 30, 2014, 02:59:41 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 30, 2014, 02:51:41 PM

Quote from: dnaleor on March 30, 2014, 02:23:38 PM

All that bearish sentiment. I get the same feeling as in the summer of 2013:

Keep calm and HODL Wink

edit:

130 USD ~ 720-800 USD
65 USD ~ 400-450 USD

I agree and I'm holding, but even through we've been through this several times, it's scary as hell.

I agree it is scary. Back than, I had only 5% of my assets in BTC.
Now I have, at current prices, >50% of my assets in BTC.

The first time I am very uneasy at what the exchange rate is doing, I must admit.
I bought a lot of coins above 100 USD and another batch right before the breakout (at 160-230 range)

It is a lot easier, I am sure, to deal with when you are in the black.. rather than when you are in the red.... especially if you are up more than 200%, even at these low prices... I am getting in the down 35% range... though I keep thinking that it could be worse. I also keep thinking that I will be in the black, soon.soon, soon, soon. Huh

?

Quote from: nidhogg1 on March 30, 2014, 03:14:15 PM

I'd bet everything i own that the ones purchasing cheap coins right now are chinese, and the ones selling are westeners.

There should be a way to get some information on this.. to attempt to figure it out... maybe cannot be 100% direct evidence but reasonable inferences.

Maybe a good project for Jorge?

Quote from: Hypnoise on March 30, 2014, 05:09:20 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on March 30, 2014, 05:03:17 PM

Do those ppl who sell @these prices getting out of the game or just waiting to rebuy below 400 i wonder?

sold at 455 and closed at 436.4 on stamp

Im too scared to sell... I am NOT confident that we are going lower.

Quote from: hlynur on March 30, 2014, 05:10:45 PM

does somebody have the link to this site where you can watch multiple charts of bitcoinwisdom?

http://hypron.net/fantastic4/

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 30, 2014, 05:33:16 PM

Oddly, after someone posted that GIF of a bear scratching his nuts, there seems to be an erection in price.

Bulls are less interesting in that regard, since they do NOT have scratching digits.

Quote from: Hypnoise on March 30, 2014, 05:39:54 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 30, 2014, 05:26:46 PM

Quote from: Hypnoise on March 30, 2014, 05:09:20 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on March 30, 2014, 05:03:17 PM

Do those ppl who sell @these prices getting out of the game or just waiting to rebuy below 400 i wonder?

sold at 455 and closed at 436.4 on stamp

Im too scared to sell... I am NOT confident that we are going lower.

no problem in oscillating market, if you missed today, wait till tomorrow and still almost certainly you will close it.

also on BTCe with no commission for trading you can start with very small amount like 0.1 btc and see how it ends in a week time. have a fun Wink

Oh.. with smaller amounts... such as .1BTC, I seem to do fine, but then I find it to be a big waste of time b/c spend hours watching the market and waiting.. then when I get to larger amounts of BTC, i have had bad luck... .. maybe I will try this later, when the BTC price returns to $650 + levels...

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 30, 2014, 05:42:00 PM

Quote from: Hypnoise on March 30, 2014, 05:39:54 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 30, 2014, 05:26:46 PM

Quote from: Hypnoise on March 30, 2014, 05:09:20 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on March 30, 2014, 05:03:17 PM

Do those ppl who sell @these prices getting out of the game or just waiting to rebuy below 400 i wonder?

sold at 455 and closed at 436.4 on stamp

Im too scared to sell... I am NOT confident that we are going lower.

no problem in oscillating market, if you missed today, wait till tomorrow and still almost certainly you will close it.

also on BTCe with no commission for trading you can start with very small amount like 0.1 btc and see how it ends in a week time. have a fun Wink

this is horrible advice

everybody HODL!!!!!!!!!

Maybe a new poll? Will BTC price rise above $540 in the next 48 hours?

Quote from: bizz on March 30, 2014, 06:25:53 PM

Quote from: GameStarter on March 30, 2014, 06:24:38 PM

Dump or Pump now?

PBOC loves to release news early monday UTC... I'd wait

I still do NOT understand what incentive PBOC has to clarify the rumor.. Maybe in a week by 4/7 they may feel they need to clarify the rumor is NOT true.. .or if it is true.. which portion and to what extent..

Quote from: spooderman on March 30, 2014, 06:43:28 PM

TA says we're going to be at 6k pages on this thread in about 3 weeks.

Does that account for all the post that have been removed and the seemingly recent phenomenon of removing posts?

Quote from: EuroTrash on March 30, 2014, 06:51:32 PM

Yeah I bought into the wall at 460.
And the market is probably just about to teach me another expensive lesson about bull traps.

I'm in a similar boat.. I bought at $452... However, I have been buying as we go down.. and continuing to think that we are done going down...

My buying down affliction began about 3 weeks ago at $610, so it has been fairly costly... even though it is my strategy to buy while going down and sell while going up (I haven't really gotten to the sell part of my formula, yet).

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 30, 2014, 06:58:25 PM

Quote from: BBmodBB on March 30, 2014, 06:54:24 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 30, 2014, 06:29:17 PM

Quote from: GameStarter on March 30, 2014, 06:24:38 PM

Dump or Pump now?

both at the same time forever.

do you still need time before i pull the rug out and full capitulation to $250? lol i've been pondering the ramifications...you have your seatbelts on bud?\\\\*rollercoaster time!!weee =)

sell all your coins did ya?

see you at 540.

At least we are getting a little excitement in the last several days.. (even though in the wrong direction) as compared with the prior period of less action. I am just OPTIMISTIC, like that.

Quote from: mah87 on March 30, 2014, 07:04:24 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 30, 2014, 07:02:33 PM

its goat selling his coins isn't

why is it falling adam ? any idea ?

YOU ARE BACK... oh.. shit!!!!

Quote from: spooderman on March 30, 2014, 07:06:40 PM

the goating is potentially quite bearish, but we have a steady flow of "newbie members" freshly paid by the NSA to come and troll here. Contracts usually start on Monday, so I am very bullish for page count once we reach midnight GMT.

The goating is just FUD.

edit: 6k in 2 weeks!

That is really bullish.. WE be lucky to reach $800 in 2 weeks.. then maybe 1K by July.. then maybe 1.5k by the end of the year... surely I am pulling these numbers out of my rear.. but.. I am trying to stay within the ballpark of probabilities.. .Maybe 2015, we will hit 10k?

Quote from: roslinpl on March 30, 2014, 07:08:18 PM

Well I see price is going up

slowly but still it is better than opposite way Tongue

dont speak too soon.. b/c overall, it still seems that we are on a downtrend....

I am NOT sure what time on Sunday the bull run usually begins, but it does NOT seem to be happening yet... .. and I am a bit sceptical about whether we are going to reach the poll numbers.... without a fairy whale grandmother or two

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 30, 2014, 07:21:47 PM

Seems like there wasn't enough coins changing hands for that to be the final bottom. Bears retreated before they even got close to $400. Looking at that order book, it's easy to see why. Looks like we're gonna need some kind of official confirmation or denial of the China rumor before either side can gain more momentum.

official confirmation or denial not coming until maybe 4/7, at the earliest

Quote from: Aki4real on March 30, 2014, 07:39:17 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 30, 2014, 07:31:48 PM

Quote from: EuroTrash on March 30, 2014, 06:51:32 PM

Yeah I bought into the wall at 460.
And the market is probably just about to teach me another expensive lesson about bull traps.

I'm in a similar boat.. I bought at $452... However, I have been buying as we go down.. and continuing to think that we are done going down...

My buying down affliction began about 3 weeks ago at $610, so it has been fairly costly... even though it is my strategy to buy while going down and sell while going up (I haven't really gotten to the sell part of my formula, yet).

I've bought some at 500 some time ago.. bought another few at 470..
will stop buying now until we hit 400. Of course i'd like to see an (hard) uptrend soon

So it sounds as if your average buy-in price is below $500... Accordingly, you are in pretty decent shape... even though the circumstances may seem a little dire at the moment.

My average buy-in price is currently at $662 (including transaction fees), yet I am NOT going to lock in any losses by selling b/c I am fairly confident that we will return to above my average buy-in price.. maybe by no later than end of April or maybe in May?

In any event, even though I am nervous, I am not too worried, yet.

Quote from: tvbcof on March 30, 2014, 07:43:23 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 30, 2014, 07:31:48 PM

Quote from: EuroTrash on March 30, 2014, 06:51:32 PM

Yeah I bought into the wall at 460.
And the market is probably just about to teach me another expensive lesson about bull traps.

I'm in a similar boat.. I bought at $452... However, I have been buying as we go down.. and continuing to think that we are done going down...

My buying down affliction began about 3 weeks ago at $610, so it has been fairly costly... even though it is my strategy to buy while going down and sell while going up (I haven't really gotten to the sell part of my formula, yet).

This worked for me. I started at $16 and ended at $2, but with vastly more BTC than I anticipated ever hodling. I sat in the red for perhaps a year IIRC. That was fine because from the get-go I anticipated the strong possibility of a total loss. So, no inclination to do anything but hodl and see if I eventually received a pay-out.

I'm only really comfortable buying anything when the price is falling, and conversely, selling anything when the price is going up. Doing so will pretty much guarantee that one buys at the bottom and sells at the top. Unless one runs out of ammo or the system collapses or the valuations cease their undulations.

Back when I was a buyer, or near the end of that time at least, I felt that by buying I was making an important contribution to mop up excess BTC liquidity. This incentive no longer applies since Bitcoin is vastly more widely recognized at this point in time.

I agree with you, and sounds like we follow a similar practice (at least attempt to do so). I really began buying at $1,200 and I have been buying ever since..... and then recently, I began intensively again after the price dropped to $610 and then lower and lower and lower... I'm thinking that it has got to reverse sometime soon.. I still have some fiat in reserves, but i have been having to get some more fiat out of reserves based on what I consider to be a continued and unexpected downward trend over the last weeks.

Quote from: hailtopitt on March 30, 2014, 08:02:02 PM

Quote from: BBmodBB on March 30, 2014, 07:58:13 PM

Quote from: hailtopitt on March 30, 2014, 07:44:58 PM

I'll preface this question with saying I'm new around here so please forgive my ignorance. Why does the price not rise and rise fast when there are a lot more people bidding then asking? Isn't that the same as buying and selling? We have a lot of people trying to buy and few people trying to sell yet we seem to be going nowhere but down slowly?

shortcovering? =\

I've got a lot to learn. I have no idea what that is.

I don't know a whole hell of a lot about how price manipulation takes place exactly, but some of those order walls that you see on Bitstamp are fake, and they are used to attempt to push the market in one direction or another by creating appearances.... ... But the phenomenon that I am describing does NOT really directly answer your question.

The other thing that seems to occur is that bots will continue to add sales on an ongoing basis to keep the price from rising. These bots can only accomplish this in a meaningful way, if the actual trade volume does NOT become too high b/c once the trade volume becomes too high, it may become too unprofitable to operate bots in such a way.

To me, there seems to be quite a bit of manipulation going on, and in this regard there is likely some of the trade activity that is taking place at a short-term loss but may be calculated to be long-term profitable.

Quote from: chufchuf on March 30, 2014, 08:25:25 PM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 30, 2014, 08:05:20 PM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 30, 2014, 07:59:28 PM

FINALLY I found out what Goat has been up to:
GOAT SIMULATOR

Am I losing my grip on reality or did I just see a goat with an axe kill everyone at a backyard BBQ?

The answer to that lies in your weird ass polar bear monster avatar thingie.

I thought that the avatar was the abominable snowman from the rudolph the rednose reindeer movie?

Quote from: podyx on March 30, 2014, 09:34:29 PM

Quote from: ustone on March 30, 2014, 09:33:15 PM

Quote from: infofront on March 30, 2014, 09:26:04 PM

At $1,100: "BUY BUY BUY! Next stop will be $1,000,000 Bitcoins!"
At $450: "BUY BUY BUY! Next stop will be $10,000 Bitcoins!"

Let's see what the permabulls are saying at $350.

think we'll see 270 in the next weeks and if those constant negative news hold on a spike to 150 is not impossible...

$150 is more of a dream then $10k

its not the bulls who are in denial

its the bears

I would like to know: When are we gonna see $10K? Are we gonna get there in a few flash crashes (upward) in 2015 and then maybe in 2016 or so, $10k will be the new bottom, and in $2017 $10k will be a distant memory of earlier years? Or would you envision some other kind of scenario involving the $10K? like further down the road? or earlier?

Quote from: Ivanhoe on March 30, 2014, 09:43:38 PM

16k to $700,- 17k to $380,- where is the ask side? Lol. I guess some weak hands were shaken out Grin

Maybe they sold all their BTC?

If any of you are buying BTC through Coinbase, you will see that currently, at this moment, they have this message up.

Quote from: Coinbase

Note! We've exceeded our normal buy limits for today. If you would still like to purchase you will receive the market price of bitcoin on Friday Apr 4, 2014 at 03:54PM PDT after your funds have arrived. read more

In my experience, the NOTICE may NOT stay up all day b/c Coinbase may be able to get back into business at some time within the next few hours. However, these kinds of NOTICE(s) from Coinbase (which happens from time to time) can be kind of irritating when Coinbase happens to be the vehicle through which a person invests from fiat into BTC and s/he wants to take advantage of the current BTC market prices.

And, I believe that it has been speculated in this thread, before, that Coinbase likely runs out of Fiat on bitstamp and they are unable to purchase more BTC until they get more fiat onto Bitstamp.. who knows?

Personally, I am o.k. for now with NOT being able to buy b/c I bought at $452; however, I may get itchy and want to buy again (my next buy point happens to be below $440, if we were to get there..... maybe NOT) and I will be unable to do buy any BTC until Coinbase removes its NOTICE and returns to business as usual.

BTW, seeing the NOTICE (that I cannot buy BTC) makes me inclined to buy BTC more.

Edit: Soon after I made this post, the Coinbase NOTICE disappeared off of their site.. maybe they read my disappointment in this thread and responded swiftly and appropriately? LOL

Quote from: aminorex on March 30, 2014, 10:58:16 PM

Quote from: creekbore on March 30, 2014, 10:26:40 AM

So, I am simply a fool: "Remember, Caesar, thou art mortal."

You mock people when they most need the courage of their convictions, not when they need humility.

Creekbore does NOT seem to be too good at either social graces or tactful lashings out, but he does seem to be working on improving his application of these, at least from time to time.

If he is NOT too rash in his posts, he may get better at this, so I have NOT completely lost hope in him, yet. But, I tend to be charitable like that. Cheesy

Quote from: chessnut on March 30, 2014, 11:14:55 PM

Quote from: windjc on March 30, 2014, 11:12:46 PM

Still does not feel like a bottom.

We haven't seen high volume on anything yet. This one is slow and painful.

bottoms come when sellers are exhausted (no volume left), volume comes soon before a bottom, but not at the bottom.

So we only see bottoms, like the ones in the pictures, during high volume?

And, accordingly, I would take it that the volume is high during the bottom, and then there is a switch in direction and the volume stays high until it tapers out for consolidation or thereafter volume stays up for some time before it goes up and tapers out at a higher amount?

So we may see another $536 or something like that (maybe lower) before we go back up.. is that what you are saying?

Quote from: chessnut on March 30, 2014, 11:32:56 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 30, 2014, 11:29:30 PM

Quote from: chessnut on March 30, 2014, 11:14:55 PM

Quote from: windjc on March 30, 2014, 11:12:46 PM

Still does not feel like a bottom.

We haven't seen high volume on anything yet. This one is slow and painful.

bottoms come when sellers are exhausted (no volume left), volume comes soon before a bottom, but not at the bottom.

So we only see bottoms, like the ones in the pictures, during high volume?

And, accordingly, I would take it that the volume is high during the bottom, and then there is a switch in direction and the volume stays high until it tapers out for consolidation or thereafter volume stays up for some time before it goes up and tapers out at a higher amount?

there is usually a last wave of divergance at the bottom, where volume is low, and price hits new extremes. Im not sure which pictures you are talking about.

We had huge volume down to 511, and a bit more down to 465. I believe that is the best volume we will see, and that was the capitulation.

A little incongruent b/c i was making a serious post, but I was also referring to the pictures of the girls and/or the duck buttoms.

Surely, I get a little nervous when I hear people suggesting that it has got to be like this b/c that is the usual pattern, but with such a manipulated market (which the BTC market seems to be), seems that any one or two fairy godmother whales can come into the mix and mess up the pattern... so even though people think that we are needing to test or retest the $436 bottom, we may never return to $436 in spite of maybe the lack of volume or whatever b/c we have some fairy godmother whales coming in and then we are floating in the $500s and then maybe $600s and then maybe other whales start to say, "oh shit, i better get in" ... so then the regular pattern is messed up.....

So I suppose we could be talking about patterns, absent fairy godmother whales, b/c the fairy godmother whales are going to mess up any kind of pattern that may be the usual... .... but bitcoin seems to NOT be the usual b/c it does seem to be fairly easy to manipulate with just a few million dollars....... I recognize that manipulation also depends upon volume.. so seems to be easier to manipulate during times when there is less volume.... but the attempts to manipulate may draw other whales if the manipulator(s) is(are) NOT subtle about it.

Quote from: FelixO on March 30, 2014, 11:44:38 PM

Quote from: chessnut on March 30, 2014, 11:42:18 PM

Quote from: Bebopzzz on March 30, 2014, 11:40:42 PM

Quote from: chessnut on March 30, 2014, 11:35:51 PM

Quote from: stan.distortion on March 30, 2014, 11:23:29 PM

Somebody wake up China, its getting late here and I want to be around for liftoff.

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html

wakey wakey rise and shine!

the chinese are just eating some chiwawa for breakfast and then they will read in the paper that the ban was fake and they will buy Grin

why do you think the ban is fake?

.... I never said I think it's fake, I dont know.

but there is now a rumour out that it's fake from a 'reputable' news agency.

Wait so this is now the rumor about a rumor?

WTF?

this is the speculation thread... we trade on rumors... and trading on rumors of rumors is even MOAR better!!!!!! Cheesy

Quote from: chessnut on March 30, 2014, 11:57:59 PM

Quote from: windjc on March 30, 2014, 11:49:00 PM

I agree that sell volume was not as strong on the last push down, but buy volume was enemic.

I guess you think the worst is past us. No more issues from here. $436 is the new perma-low.

buy volume = sell volume, not so?

everyone seems to think the bottom will be much lower, so I am assured that it will not be much lower. the amount of people who are ready on the trigger to close their shorts and fill their bags with bitcoin on leverage at sub 400 is massive.

WE are gonna see sub $400...... Huh

?

OM f'ng G !!!!!

I hope NOT... at this point I would NOT be surprised by anything, but i am thinking outside chance we may get to at little below $430 .. and then we are going to head for our upward trajectory into the $500s this week, $600s by the weekend and $700 by the end of April, maybe even $800 by the end of April..... Of course, continued and ongoing speculation that is based on NOT much more than overall sense of a need for an uptrend and that we are continuing to get increased rather than decreased adoption....

NOW.. if the china ban rumor ends up being true.. then this could put a cog in my speculation.. At this point, I am "speculating" that the chances for the china rumor to be true is fairly unlikely... maybe less than 5% chance that material aspect of it is true.

Quote from: chessnut on March 31, 2014, 12:16:35 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2014, 12:03:59 AM

So I suppose we could be talking about patterns, absent fairy godmother whales, b/c the fairy godmother whales are going to mess up any kind of pattern that may be the usual... .... but bitcoin seems to NOT be the usual b/c it does seem to be fairly easy to manipulate with just a few million dollars....... I recognize that manipulation also depends upon volume.. so seems to be easier to manipulate during times when there is less volume.... but the attempts to manipulate may draw other whales if the manipulator(s) is(are) NOT subtle about it.

you are thinking that whales are selling to drop the price so they can buy?

that is taking a huge gamble where already many longs have been squeezed, and selling is something nobody wants to do right now, especially whales.

the smart money is off the exchanges buying bitcoins from local bitcoins and such.

there are mostly smaller players left on these exchanges, and they are not worth the effort and risk for the whales to try and fool.

YOU may be correct about the dynamics that you describe, and I may be speculating beyond any reasonable semblance of knowledge that I have about how BTC price is being affected by trade; however, whether we like it or NOT, it seems to me that BTC prices are affected by exchange activities. It also seems to me that there may have been quite a bit of removal of money and BTC from exchanges b/c of the GOX collapse issue. Therefore, if there is less money on the exchanges, it takes less money to manipulate the BTC prices on exchanges and whales may want to engage in tactics to NOT show that they are manipulating BTC prices.. but still seems to me that there is a very, very, very large incentive to manipulate for some institutional investors, wealthy individuals (and even governments).

If there are invisible walls that do NOT let the prices go up.. then it may NOT cost very much to keep up those invisible walls.

Accordingly, maybe it is the paranoia in me, but I believe manipulation is taking place on exchanges, even though I may NOT be able to clearly articulate the mechanics of how it is done.. or how much profits and or losses take place through such manipulations.....

For example, if an institutional investor can manipulate prices, and it costs that institutional investor, let's say for argument sake 1 million to manipulate BTC prices downward.. but the institutional investor is able to acquire, 20,000 BTC for average of $500 per BTC rather than average of $650, then that institutional investor has just saved $2 million. $3million saved from purchase of coins at lower price at $1million cost to manipulate the market downward = $2 million profits overall. Surely the numbers work out differently with different quantities of BTC purchases. If an institutional investor wants to acquire 200,000 BTC, then multiply that by 10, and you get $30million savings and the institutional investor may be willing to take large losses on exchanges to keep the prices down and to save and to get 200,000 BTC at $500 average rather than $650 average.

In this regard, if, as you suggest, smart money is coming into BTC sphere through these various outside channels, they are likely using the exchange price to figure out how much they are going to be paying per BTC, no? So, even if they are NOT making their big purchases through the exchange directly, they are figuring out the price they will pay, based on some agreed to average which likely a reflection of the exchange prices.

Quote from: CoinDox on March 31, 2014, 12:28:32 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2014, 12:19:00 AM

...then we are going to head for our upward trajectory into the $500s this week, $600s by the weekend and $700 by the end of April, maybe even $800 by the end of April..... Of course, continued and ongoing speculation that is based on NOT much more than overall sense of a need for an uptrend and that we are continuing to get increased rather than decreased adoption....

I mean this in the most sincere way, take the money you are "speculating" with and buy yourself something you enjoy, or go on a trip.

Excuse me about your supposed sincerity.. what the fuck are you talking about? You are talking about a different category of spending.

People engage in various kinds of investments and speculations in order to be able to live well in the future and to have financial security and various kinds of things like that... sometimes the bets pay off and sometimes they do NOT .. whether people invest in real estate, business ventures, the stock market, fiat currency, gold or bitcoin, we are speculating as a vehicle.. to later be able to later spend.. some people hedge and diversify and others invest balls to the walls.

When you are talking about consumption, you are referring to a different category of spending, and to me it sounds as if you are provoking incitement, being argumentative and possibly patronizing us as if you supposedly know better about something...

Are you invested in BTC? Are you engaging in thoughts about it, or you just come to this thread to say I told you so, during a downtrend? In essence, your comment is NOT productive, contributory or even insightful.. it seems to be just a means to say I told you so.. so if you do NOT believe in BTC investing or making some kind of meaningful contribution, then go to engage in your own consumption activities and leave us in this thread to ponder BTC investment and/or speculation possibilities.

Quote from: tvbcof on March 31, 2014, 12:40:02 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2014, 12:19:00 AM

WE are gonna see sub $400...... Huh

?

OM f'ng G !!!!!

I hope NOT... at this point I would NOT be surprised by anything, but i am thinking outside chance...

There are only two times that the price ever meant anything to me. Namely, when I bought and when I sold. Between those two it makes zero difference whether the price dipped to near zero or when to to some ungodly high value. Zero.

I got myself into this mode of thinking from a nearly a decade of dicking around with precious metals before I ever heard of Bitcoin. It served me well.

I was exaggerating a bit, as you may have been able to tell.

I agree with your overall sentiment.. you are correct; however, each of us get into an investment at a different stage, and based on such, we may engage in slightly different behaviors and investment strategies.

I happened to have gotten into BTC at $1200, so I have been constantly buying to bring down my average BTC buy in price (currently I am at about $662) and in order to hopefully someday get back into the black... so current BTC price trends remain somewhat worrisome to me, based on my starting point and ongoing working and monitoring of BTC prices to continue to buy on the dips and to be able to be in a position to be able to get to a position of being in the black and to be able to be comfortable that I could sell at any point and be profitable (NOT there yet and getting further from there when the price goes down to such extremes.. especially, if such considerable dips cause concerns about whether the price will ever return to a place that I would be in the black).

Certainly, I do NOT plan to sell any of my BTC until some time far into the future (unless some emergency or something).. but I would feel much better, if I could bring down my average BTC price and to rest in a position of being in the black rather than resting in the red... if you know what I am talking about... and the lower the average BTC buy in price, the easier it is to get to and to stay in some place of comfort and near being in the black.

Quote from: tvbcof on March 31, 2014, 01:00:42 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 31, 2014, 12:16:35 AM

you are thinking that whales are selling to drop the price so they can buy?

that is taking a huge gamble where already many longs have been squeezed, and selling is something nobody wants to do right now, especially whales.

the smart money is off the exchanges buying bitcoins from local bitcoins and such.

there are mostly smaller players left on these exchanges, and they are not worth the effort and risk for the whales to try and fool.

I don't think 'the whales' have used exchanges for about 2 years now except in unusual cases. There are much better venues for trading in quantity (so a little birdie told me.) More than one or two whales makes a crowd on a public exchange. The step on one another's toes generally, and eat one another's lunch when manipulation operations are attempted.

As for 'the smart money' dinking around with local bitcoins it seems laughable to me. Possibly there are agents working generally on their behalf trying to scrape up BTC wherever they can find it but these would be autonomous actors who have nothing better to do than to run around to various Starbucks and stuff money into envelopes and such.

I'm all fine and dandy with your assessment that whales are NOT being obvious on exchanges.. ... however, if you read my post above, I am suggesting that prices are gotten from exchanges.. so exchange prices are manipulated... It may NOT be for the purposes of directly obtaining coins, but it does seem to be for the purpose of manipulating price.

Are any of you suggesting that BTC price comes from anywhere other than from the exchanges?

Quote from: chessnut on March 31, 2014, 01:06:33 AM

Quote from: CoinDox on March 31, 2014, 12:28:32 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2014, 12:19:00 AM

...then we are going to head for our upward trajectory into the $500s this week, $600s by the weekend and $700 by the end of April, maybe even $800 by the end of April..... Of course, continued and ongoing speculation that is based on NOT much more than overall sense of a need for an uptrend and that we are continuing to get increased rather than decreased adoption....

I mean this in the most sincere way, take the money you are "speculating" with and buy yourself something you enjoy, or go on a trip.

dude look at the price action.

by a fair chance, this guy might be picking an absolute bottom, and you would advise him to spend his capital on holiday.

I think CoinDox thought that he was registering for the skiing in the Alps forum, and accidentally registered here. So maybe we can excuse him for his being in the wrong forum? Cheesy

Quote from: tvbcof on March 31, 2014, 01:19:38 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2014, 01:07:19 AM

I agree with your overall sentiment.. you are correct; however, each of us get into an investment at a different stage, and based on such, we may engage in slightly different behaviors and investment strategies.
...

True about the different times. I did pay attention to the price fairly keenly when I was in buying mode.

I only started buying at $16-ish because I was doing something else when the 2011 spike happened and the price had dropped from around the $20 level by the time I got exchanges figured out and funded. So, I was kind of lucky in a way. I got a little frustrated and decided to put more in fiat terms at risk the deeper I got into the red. I had one more 'double down' planned if we got well below $2.00 but we never did. I told myself that the $2.00 was a 'second chance' for us newbies. In the end it looks like I was right though it was more incidental than a result of some special insight.

From the get-go I planed my exit to be magnitude based rather than time based. Get back my initial outlay if/when I hit 10x and get back some fun-money if/when 100x. We did hit those targets which was fun so I cannot say I didn't spend the years watching the charts. Again, though, I was careful to never get into a situation where I was forced into taking a particular action so I was more relaxed than I might have been.

Yes...

Certainly, neither of us seem to be asserting any omniscience, here.

However, I think that your description plays into my theory quite a bit, that an investor can rest much more assured when s/he is in the black rather than being in the red. The more in the black or the less in the red, the more assured s/he can rest.

Since BTC prices have been downtrending since I began to invest, I had been engaging in a buing strategy that continuously caused me to have to monitor BTC prices b/c I have been continuing to attempt to buy during dips.. and then BTC prices get lower and get lower.. (and I make some mistakes, here and there) and anyhow, I started with $1,500 invested at $1,200 per BTC (which was only 1.24BTC). My anticipated BTC investment budget was to invest $30k between late November 2013 and June-ish 2014 and to attempt to study the matter as I was engaging in a hybrid form of dollar cost averaging. I could have invested most of that 30K on the front end in 11/13, but I already realized that BTC had been on an amazing bull run.. and front loading was likely NOT going to be a good idea.. but I wanted to get some skin in the BTC game and to get started in case the prices went up even more (which was and remains possible that prices could go up rather than down - even at ATH prices).

Anyhow, currently, I already have about 30K invested in at an average of $662.. which is about 45.5 BTC....

My next buy point was going to be $430-ish.. if BTC prices would have gone there within the next 24 hours.. but maybe we are NOT going to go there any time soon... who knows?...

Anyhow, in the last few hours my amount in the red went from negative 35% to negative 28%... and if we had gone to below $400, my BTC portfolio would have been about negative 41% (absent additional buys). For me, it feels much better to be at negative 28% (even without having more BTC in the portfolio) than it would be to be at negative 41% with some additional BTC in my portfolio. That is just my current thinking b/c I am about two months ahead of my anticipated investment amounts. I will feel even better as the price increases or my average buy-in price comes down. I may NOT buy as much absent dips, and when there are dips, I feel that i need to buy, especially when my portfolio is lingering in the red.

Quote from: tvbcof on March 31, 2014, 01:44:42 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2014, 01:21:29 AM

I'm all fine and dandy with your assessment that whales are NOT being obvious on exchanges.. ... however, if you read my post above, I am suggesting that prices are gotten from exchanges.. so exchange prices are manipulated... It may NOT be for the purposes of directly obtaining coins, but it does seem to be for the purpose of manipulating price.

Are any of you suggesting that BTC price comes from anywhere other than from the exchanges?

The spot price comes from the markets in total through various types of arbitrage. People who have visibility into other more opaque markets probably do dabble on the exchanges for fun and profit so the exchanges are an actual reflection of the total market. But they have enough lag such those who have only public exposure (a majority of participants by body count) end up getting skewered over time. When the tide is rising it is not noticed so much. When the tide is going out is when the impacts are felt most significantly.

In my post above here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg5993520#msg5993520

I am describing why I think that exchanges set prices and that whale manipulation of prices is taking place on exchanges and that there is an incentive to manipulate prices - even if the big purchases are taking place outside of exchanges.

Quote from: tvbcof on March 31, 2014, 02:08:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2014, 01:55:56 AM

Quote from: tvbcof on March 31, 2014, 01:44:42 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2014, 01:21:29 AM

I'm all fine and dandy with your assessment that whales are NOT being obvious on exchanges.. ... however, if you read my post above, I am suggesting that prices are gotten from exchanges.. so exchange prices are manipulated... It may NOT be for the purposes of directly obtaining coins, but it does seem to be for the purpose of manipulating price.

Are any of you suggesting that BTC price comes from anywhere other than from the exchanges?

The spot price comes from the markets in total through various types of arbitrage. People who have visibility into other more opaque markets probably do dabble on the exchanges for fun and profit so the exchanges are an actual reflection of the total market. But they have enough lag such those who have only public exposure (a majority of participants by body count) end up getting skewered over time. When the tide is rising it is not noticed so much. When the tide is going out is when the impacts are felt most significantly.

In my post above here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg5993520#msg5993520

I am describing why I think that exchanges set prices and that whale manipulation of prices is taking place on exchanges and that there is an incentive to manipulate prices - even if the big purchases are taking place outside of exchanges.

Oh, I've always taken it as a near certainty that the exchanges themselves are completely corrupt in terms of spot price. I also expect that they do favors for their insider friends. Some exchanges may not, but I assume it anyway. Bitcoin exchanges really are the 'free market' in that they are unencumbered by any form of regulation or ethics. Most of them are (demonstrably) just waiting for the best opportunity to have a 'hack' and walk away with people's money. I had a relatively high degree of confidence in Tradehill-I back in the day, but I still bent over backwards to limit my exposure.

If you are good at reading the tea leaves, this innate corruption in the Bitcoin ecosystem (Libertarian utopia that it is) might be able to be read and played upon. In a similar way I figure there is probably some truth to the assertions that the gold and silver markets are artificially depressed with paper instruments. That's awesome as long as I'm a buyer (only physical in my case) and I've yet to need to switch sides and need to sell.

Seems like we may be kind of in agreement, even though we are using different ways of expressing and different examples to make similar points.

So your gold and silver examples also seem to support my points in that we already get the sense that gold and silver prices are manipulated, and gold is about a 7 trillion dollar market - which is about 1000 times larger than bitcoin.. and if they can manipulate gold then it must be quite a bit easier to manipulate bitcoin.. maybe NOT exactly 1000 times easier... but some magnitude easier. IN that regard, my suggestion is that if you can manipulate the prices on the exchanges, then that manipulation has a magnification effect and benefit beyond the exchanges.. and the manipulator can reap the benefits outside of the exchanges from whatever it had cost him to manipulate on the exchanges.

Here's my earlier described example:

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2014, 12:43:14 AM

For example, if an institutional investor can manipulate prices, and it costs that institutional investor, let's say for argument sake 1 million to manipulate BTC prices downward.. but the institutional investor is able to acquire, 20,000 BTC for average of $500 per BTC rather than average of $650, then that institutional investor has just saved $2 million. $3million saved from purchase of coins at lower price at $1million cost to manipulate the market downward = $2 million profits overall. Surely the numbers work out differently with different quantities of BTC purchases. If an institutional investor wants to acquire 200,000 BTC, then multiply that by 10, and you get $30million savings and the institutional investor may be willing to take large losses on exchanges to keep the prices down and to save and to get 200,000 BTC at $500 average rather than $650 average.

Quote from: derpinheimer on March 31, 2014, 05:31:50 AM

Quote from: surfer43 on March 31, 2014, 05:20:44 AM

Just another day in the Bitcoin market...

Quote

Exchange x stopped deposits in y currency?!?! Shocked

This means that the price should go down artificially on that exchange. Shocked

I think everyone else will dump because they think everyone else will dump because of this news.
Panic sell!!!

If I understand it, a ban in China is not like shutting BTC-E down. It would prevent the whole country from being able to invest in Bitcoin. If BTC-E goes down, people can just move exchanges. This should cause a massive devaluation of BTC unless we happen to end up in another hype cycle (or, deposits come back)

I really dont believe the China ban is "factored in". Much like Gox, and countless other things that were 'already' factored in.

The price seems to be only factored in if the confirmation ends up being more or less materially the same as the rumor.

Otherwise further price adjustment may need occur based on the confirmation of the rumor.

On the other hand, if the confirmation of the rumor ends up being exactly the same as the rumor.. then it seems very likely that the market would have already mostly accounted for that news based on the rumor rather than the confirmation of the rumor....

I think that is the general rule... but of course there can be exceptions to any rule or a failure to fully appreciate the significance of the rumor until after the rumor is confirmed.

Quote from: seleme on March 31, 2014, 06:06:23 AM

400 is defended well but if it fails, it's gonna be a show time Grin

What is your confidence level that BTC prices are even going to get there? And by when? Within the next 24 hours?

Quote from: magicmexican on March 31, 2014, 07:22:15 AM

Quote from: gizmoh on March 31, 2014, 07:09:26 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on March 31, 2014, 07:05:12 AM

Selling now and waiting for china to crash to 2300-2100 is probably not a bad idea, since the bigger dump always happens about 8h~ after the "news"

So you finally SODL , bulls changing minds, i guess the low isn't that far!

I said it would probably be an okay idea, but i didnt sell , because overall the price is too low

I have a difficult time, too, bringing myself to sell at such a low price.. even though there could be a negative price reaction in 8 hours or so... maybe I will just buy more at that time.. I cannot see a for sure or guarantee that the price will drop by more than possibly $20.. to $420 or so?... Who da fuck knows, for sure? If I knew for sure, id be rich.. and Id be in the black rather than currently being in the red.

Quote from: windjc on March 31, 2014, 07:26:41 AM

Quote from: T.Stuart on March 31, 2014, 07:15:23 AM

Quote from: zby on March 31, 2014, 07:00:42 AM

For negative stuff isn't it sell on rumours buy on news?

It's amazing how people forget this. Remeber pre-Gox, when it was all about China? By the time the deadline came we were stable / inching up and if it hadn't been for Gox we would have continued that way I reckon.

Maybe there is another way, but to me it looks like there is going to be an epic showdown between $380-$420. The bid sums are already lined up, with plenty more waiting in the wings. But China is going to attempt to take us down to $200s

We need real capitulation and I think we are going to have a chance at it when these two forces meet.

ARe these supposed forces, about which you speak, real?

Quote from: niothor on March 31, 2014, 09:02:15 AM

Looking through the last 10 pages and nobody has used the term "cheap coins" even once.
That's quite bearish:)

We should have some pictures of some tired-ass bulls - or bulls getting run over by trains... ... and I am saying this, even though I am BTC bullish.... but the downward stagnation is kind of taking its toll on my world view...

buy buy bye.

Quote from: windjc on March 31, 2014, 09:24:12 AM

Quote from: 8up on March 31, 2014, 09:16:51 AM

This is not ment to be technically correct TA. Anyways I wanted to share this point ov view. Exchange is 1day @Huobi.

My apologies, but this chart makes no sense.

I believe that he is saying he wants BTC prices to go up.. by wishing such...

we could just hmm, hmmmm , hmmm, hmmmmm , hmmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm hmmmm , hmmm, hmmmmm , hmmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm hmmmm , hmmm, hmmmmm , hmmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm hmmmm , hmmm, hmmmmm , hmmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm

Does this make more sense? Huh

hmmmmm?

Quote from: 8up on March 31, 2014, 10:00:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2014, 09:48:58 AM

Quote from: windjc on March 31, 2014, 09:24:12 AM

Quote from: 8up on March 31, 2014, 09:16:51 AM

This is not ment to be technically correct TA. Anyways I wanted to share this point ov view. Exchange is 1day @Huobi.

My apologies, but this chart makes no sense.

I believe that he is saying he wants BTC prices to go up.. by wishing such...

we could just hmm, hmmmm , hmmm, hmmmmm , hmmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm hmmmm , hmmm, hmmmmm , hmmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm hmmmm , hmmm, hmmmmm , hmmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm hmmmm , hmmm, hmmmmm , hmmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm prices go up.... hmmmm , hmmmmm , hmmm prices go up... hmmm

Does this make more sense? Huh

hmmmmm?

You got me. The lines looked somehow funny. Methinks: Even if it will go further down. Before that to happen, it will go up from here at least 100-200$.

Your lines do seem to be kind of arbitrary.. yet, I have NO IDEAS about how to draw lines or to project based on these kinds of lines.... except maybe if the price is stable for a while then probably it is going to break out in one direction or another...

I though that it would just be fun to translate what you were saying into a wish... hehehe... ... And, I share your wish...

NOW.. are you suggesting that we are going to go into the $550 to $650 range within the next few days?... and it seems very plausible that we need to return BTC prices to these levels in the near future... and then soon thereafter go to $650 to $750 and then $750 to $850.. and maybe linger within that price range until about the end of July-ish.. before we head moonwards, maybe to the $1500 price territory... ? If NOT $1500 by July, maybe $1500-ish at some point before the end of the calendar year?

Quote from: electronistul on March 31, 2014, 10:29:56 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2014, 10:15:22 AM

If NOT $1500 by July, maybe $1500-ish at some point before the end of the calendar year?

I remember people "calling it" last November:

Quote from: MahaRamana on November 27, 2013, 11:07:32 PM

Quote from: maz on November 27, 2013, 10:54:45 PM

Anyone got any speculation for where we are headed in the short term?

Seem's like everyone's just so surprised we broke $1000 nobody planned any speculation for afterwards, and I need speculation.

Surprised ? Who ?

When it was crashing from 900 and we reached 550 USD I said : It will fall below 500 but 400 will hold. If 400 holds then we will hit 1000 USD within the next 10 days. And here we are 7 days later... All correct.

Expect more of the same, going up strong with some corrections/ crashes on the way. For exemple we maybe hit 1600 before crashing back to 1200, then resume rise.

I believe it can again double by the end of the year to 2000 USD. A more conservative estimation is 1500 USD by the end of the year.
In 2014 I believe we'll witness the bull through the 4 digits with the 5 digits in sight. When we reach 5 digits is anyone's guess but I personally see it happen within 12 months.

So ... people felt 2k to be a reasonable figure by the end of 2013.
Personally, I wonder IF we'll see $700-800/BTC this year. There are plenty of lines drawn on charts; $1500 by the end of July, Risto thought of $1M/coin and so on.
De facto: IF all Chinese investors cash out their coins at a loss right about now, we'll see a stable $150 for quite some time.

Not to mention the bankruptcy of some major Chinese exchanges; negative news coverage all over the world, the "Ponzi" word pulled way more than it should and so on.

Surely the scenarios that I projected could happen within the time-frames that i specified, and the scenarios that you described could happen, as well. People invest based on a lot of this and take chances and none of it is guaranteed. There are odds, and we project based on our information and intuition and logic and speculation regarding which outcome we expect or hope for. In this regard, some outcomes are more likely than other to take place, and sometimes we may invest incorrectly or predict wrong b/c there are a variety of factors, as you mentioned.

Quote from: electronistul on March 31, 2014, 10:29:56 AM

Investors ? people with USD on the exchanges ?! Where ? I cannot see them anywhere.

Some of the infrastructure building and investment is occurring and projected. It may take place and it may NOT. It may take place within the next year and it may be delayed or diverted or abandoned, and all of these factors affect future value and the time frame. If we wait for all of this to be accomplished, then the price would have already adjusted for the occurrence. That is why some early adopters of BTC realized price returns of more than 100 times their original investment. There is NO guarantee any positive returns will continue or that all of the factors will align in order to allow for positive returns.

You can bet for BTC prices to go up, you can bet against it or you can stay out, and surely there are variations of such in terms of hedging bets, diversifying going all in balls to the wall or staying out completely or investing in some related industries based on whatever speculation you have.

Quote from: 8up on March 31, 2014, 10:32:04 AM

Who knows how it will unfold? At least I don't know!

However, these are my best guesses for the nearby future:
a) we are going to da moon -> it's lilkely we will see ~600$ in the next days
b) we are going to hang around at a certain price level (like in midsummer 2013) -> it's lilkely we will see this happen @ around ~600$ in the next days
c) we are going further down -> it's lilkely we will see ~600$ in the next days before we do so.

Yes, I asked you and you made your projection for the next few days... maybe you are correct, and maybe NOT.

I do believe what you are saying to be fairly likely... and I am NOT sure I could put a percentage of probabilities on it except maybe to predict that in my thinking it seems to be more likely than NOT, at least by the end of the week... but also I do NOT know the future... ...and my life savings is NOT bet on that occurring.. and I would NOT lock myself into such a bet. If $600-ish does NOT occur this week, then I am o.k. with that, and if $500 does NOT occur this week, I am o.k. with that, and if $100 occurs this week, I am o.k. with that too, but I would be disappointed with $100, if it were to occur. Nonetheless, I have quite a bit of fiat into BTC, and I am likely NOT going to be selling any based on current news.. and likely NOT trading until we start to reach in the $700 plus territory (unless maybe just very small amounts here and there or larger amounts if the projected outcome seems to have a very high likelihood of taking place).

Quote from: Zule on March 31, 2014, 11:31:18 AM

The gov didnt issue an official obligatory opinion, but even if it did it wouldnt write letters about it to all concerned so the statement from btcc is lame.
Something is going down, notice the changes some of the exchanges are introducing concerning cny.

Those kind of reactions from various exchanges to introduce CNY features may ALSO be based completely on the rumors and uncertainties rather than being based on any real insider knowledge.

Quote from: dreamspark on March 31, 2014, 11:38:57 AM

Quote from: bizz on March 31, 2014, 11:36:49 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on March 31, 2014, 11:35:02 AM

Quote from: bizz on March 31, 2014, 11:31:23 AM

Time to give Kraken some love.

Are you trading there at the moment ?

What are your general thoughts and feelings?

Yes, since recently. Low volumes but growing slowly. Otherwise it's great. Lots of advanced order options.

Thanks, I may send some play money there to see if I get on with it then, I tried bitfinex recently but some of there features are very confusing.

In other news according to fiat leak the chinese are buying about 10x more BTC at the moment than the rest of the world.

A lot of people have raised questions about fiatleaks as a credible source... b/c the foundational information is questionable.... Additionally, it does NOT seem to reflect new money into BTC but instead exchange activity. China's exchange activity has been high for at least a couple of reasons. First in many instances there are NO exchange fees, and second there have been accusations and even admissions regarding fudging the numbers.

Quote from: EuroTrash on March 31, 2014, 01:13:03 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 31, 2014, 12:28:35 PM

Quote from: Eternity on March 31, 2014, 12:12:30 PM

Some good news to China
https://btc-e.com/news/203

I understand that to mean: any Chinese citizens who can send their CNY offshore (which turns them into CNH) can now deposit them directly to BTC-e, without converting them to EUR or USD first.

That could be one option for Chinese citizens to put new money into the cryptocoin market. However it seems to be limited to 50,000 CNY/year for most people, is that correct?

Chinese citizens who already have money in their Chinese exchange accounts would probably want to buy bitcoins there and export them to an account on BTC-e or any other exchange.

I suppose that the PBoC would not mind, quite the opposite, if Chinese citizens withdraw CNH from BTC-e and bring them back into the mainland?

If I see it your way, it means that the Chinese have a BTC/LTC-way to escape capital controls until April 15th.

Also 50000 CNY is almost 6 grand in € which is not much to some of us western middle class spoiled people but it is a lot to small Chinese worker class that is desperate for investing into stores of value that are not debased/stolen by their own government.

So if BTC-E provides them with a way to withdraw CNH, and if they can convert CNH to CNY easily, they could put some of their savings into crypto.

Can any Chinese citizen here please confirm that this is the case?

Yeah, but what is the profile of the average BTC chinese investor? Maybe they are NOT regular chinese people. We have to recall that probably less than 5% of chinese have heard about BTC and probably less than .1% have taken any steps towards purchasing any BTC and probably less than .01% have any significant BTC holdings of more than 10 BTC. In other words we are referring to a subset of a subset of a group.

Quote from: Taras on March 31, 2014, 02:51:12 PM

I hope the Bitcoin bullet train doesn't leave without me. I can't buy until tomorrow! Fingers crossed four a low price Cheesy

By the way, todays the anniversary of me finding out about and subsequently using Bitcoin

Happy BTC anniversary... but the bad news could be that we will be at $540-ish by tomorrow? if the poll's outcome is a yes.... but people seem to be pretty divided about that outcome... so you still may have a chance... NEVER know.. ??

Quote from: porcupine87 on March 31, 2014, 03:47:41 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on March 31, 2014, 02:37:28 PM

Total bidsum just nudged 12 milion for the first time in weeks...

Yeah, I put my buy order in. I will buy 5Mio. btc at 0.001$. Thanks that at least one person appreciate this!

People who talk like you are NOT investors, and you are NOT buying at any price, so the question becomes: "what are you doing in this thread?" You are clearly out of sync with the vast vast majority of others here, who are looking to buy and sell, no?

Quote from: LOADING.READY.RUN on March 31, 2014, 04:33:57 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2014, 04:26:20 PM

Quote from: porcupine87 on March 31, 2014, 03:47:41 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on March 31, 2014, 02:37:28 PM

Total bidsum just nudged 12 milion for the first time in weeks...

Yeah, I put my buy order in. I will buy 5Mio. btc at 0.001$. Thanks that at least one person appreciate this!

People who talk like you are NOT investors, and you are NOT buying at any price, so the question becomes: "what are you doing in this thread?" You are clearly out of sync with the vast vast majority of others here, who are looking to buy and sell, no?

I think he has a point: dreamspark quotes the bid/ask ratio as a ratio of BTC : BTC. porcupoine87 demonstrates that this way of putting the bid/ask ratio is pointless, because it can easily be manipulated.

@dreamspark: I suggest using a USD/BTC ratio for the bid/ask sum because this way it's independent of this kind of manipulation.

Thanks for pointing that out.

Certainly, i misread what was being proposed by porcupine87..... and even when i read through the post, NOW, I do NOT understand the significance, exactly, except to recognize that I misunderstood what was being proposed... I had understood that porcupine87 was planning to buy when BTC reached $.001, which is clearly NO way even approaching what was being communicated.

My apologies to porcupine87 or anyone else who may have been bothered by my reaction.

Quote from: aminorex on March 31, 2014, 06:16:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2014, 04:11:55 PM

Yeah, but what is the profile of the average BTC chinese investor? Maybe they are NOT regular chinese people. We have to recall that probably less than 5% of chinese have heard about BTC and probably less than .1% have taken any steps towards purchasing any BTC and probably less than .01% have any significant BTC holdings of more than 10 BTC. In other words we are referring to a subset of a subset of a group.

Those percentages are extremely high, in my opinion.

I am pretty sure that you are correct. Since i was just talking by guestimating, I was being a bit generous to give benefit of the doubt... but even with the numbers that I am asserting, it shows that the earlier claim is preposterous to try to suggest that BTC is even coming close to approaching some kind of mainstream phenomenon in China that would somehow affect "regular" chinese people.

Another poster, Xell, made the point much more directly than me. Here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6001631#msg6001631

Quote from: Mad Scientist on March 31, 2014, 06:30:50 PM

When Bitcoin collapsed to 800 what did I hear? "Too the moon!"

When Bitcoin collapsed to 600 what did I hear? "Too the moon!"

Now that Bitcoin is at 450 what do I hear? "Too the moon!"

You guys are no different than the Aura and Mazacoin crowd: Delusional.

That is NOT called delusional, it is called either aspirational or projection or prediction... sometimes it is stated blindly and other times it is stated within a context. Many of us in the bitcoin sphere expect bitcoin to take off on an upward projection, and some of us are thinking that it may take off sooner, rather than later... so that can be a bit anxious, and maybe even become delusional, if people were to invest at $1200 or some other high amount, and see the price going down, rather than up.. surely there is going to be an up trend it is a matter of when and for how long and how persistent.. those questions are all worthy of different conclusions from different people... since you seem to be in this space to critique the comments of others, what is your aspiration or investment into bitcoin or some other asset? If NOT bitcoin, then what are you doing, here? You understand that there is a variety of people here with a variety of perspectives, and what point do you make by criticizing people for saying to the moon?

Why don't you say: BUY, BUY, BUY..... and get into the spirit rather than calling people names (such as delusional)?

Quote from: hdbuck on March 31, 2014, 07:07:38 PM

Quote from: podyx on March 31, 2014, 07:04:59 PM

Quote from: Mad Scientist on March 31, 2014, 06:30:50 PM

When Bitcoin collapsed to 800 what did I hear? "Too the moon!"

When Bitcoin collapsed to 600 what did I hear? "Too the moon!"

Now that Bitcoin is at 450 what do I hear? "Too the moon!"

You guys are no different than the Aura and Mazacoin crowd: Delusional.

we are still up more then 4,500,000% over 5 years

please remind me of who is delusional

i think it wont be that fast anymore tho.

edit: and its 3 years since it wasnt on any exchange when still in development stage.

Yes, it may be more accurate to use 3 years rather than 5 years as a measuring point for some purposes... but then there are frequently developments that take place that change the dynamics of BTC and the various means in which BTC achieves additional public exposure.

I am in NO way of the view that BTC's future performance is gonna be any kind of exact replica of its past performance; however, I am of the belief that - even though BTC has had a pretty decent run in its recent history... and possibly, the price may have outpaced the building of its infrastructure, nonetheless - BTC continues to be a very decent investment vehicle b/c it continues to have considerable upside potential... just taking on various functions such as money transmittal or storage of value or public ledger or potential ease of person to person transactions without a middleman...

Also, even though there are quite a few crypto-currency quasi-competitors for BTC, BTC continues to have the main momentum and the lion's share of attention and infrastructure building.. which remains likely to last at least for a couple more years... and we may need to reassess as we go if there develops some alternative(s) to BTC that is (are) better than BTC.... but at the moment, BTC is where its at.....

Surely, there may be some better investments and more stable and more secure, and even more profitable etc. etc... But so fucking what? If there are better investments, then we can allocate accordingly, and if BTC seems to be too risky, we can also allocate accordingly.... roll with the punches...

and currently, BTC seems to be a great price... so BUY, BUY, BUY!!!!!! or HODL, HODL, HODL!!!!!! and I am sure we have some other great expressions to capture the current state of affairs in BTC-land.

Quote from: roslinpl on March 31, 2014, 09:41:47 PM

Quote from: mah87 on March 31, 2014, 08:49:22 PM

Bitcoin is doomed by this new IRS announcement. The price will slowly decline to 0$

I am believing that you are so wrong

and I do not know how you can even say that

But when price will hit 0$

I will buy few thousands BTC Cheesy

As many as I will be able to buy!

NOT believable!!!!

if you are NOT buying in the $400 range, then certainly, you are NOT going to be inclined to buy in the near zero range.

Quote from: damnek on March 31, 2014, 11:17:45 PM

Quote from: fonzie on March 31, 2014, 09:54:25 PM

Some bullish thoughts:
If we enter the double digits range it´s probaby to late to sell, i can ´t see us stayin in single digits/lower double digits for more than a few days.
But hey after all, it´s the honey badger isn´t it?
Cheesy

Keep talking, I'd like to get a few more at cheaper prices

Who the fuck knows what is going to happen? But I cannot see the BTC prices getting too much cheaper... unless there is some aazing new negative developments... Maybe the price might get down close to $410... but I cannot see being able to get much lower than that... unless maybe a flash crash or something.. but even then.. seems fairly unlikely... In other words, this seems to be about as cheap as we are gonna get.... maybe dips into the $430s..... but buy now while the buying is CHEAP COINS !!!!

Quote from: chessnut on April 01, 2014, 02:41:04 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 01, 2014, 02:28:15 AM

I gauge each individual by what they post, not what someone else posts about them (although I do use what someone says about others to gauge their own character).

Just what I need, another person judging me on shallow evidence.

creekbore has been stalking me for a while, and he's made this personal. If I lose my patience the last thing Im worried about is looking like a jerk.

I've had my issues with Creekbore too, yet nonetheless, it is probably a losing argument to engage in abstract arguments about what he may have posted in the past...... and in that regard, probably better to just leave the arguments to future posts.

Sometimes, people will get better at making more fair arguments and renditions of facts.. etc etc... .. but if the battle turns into a personal or character attacks on both ends then both posters will likely lose, and NO one is really interested in reading those kinds of posts...

In my experience and opinion, they are losers to try to wage character battles.... except to the extent, possibly, to weave them into substantive arguments and to point out fallacies of the other guys approach, to the extent the other guy is engaging in those kinds of tactics.. ... but still better, in my thinking, to attempt to address the substantive arguments first.... so it seems.

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 01, 2014, 02:47:05 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 01, 2014, 02:41:04 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 01, 2014, 02:28:15 AM

I gauge each individual by what they post, not what someone else posts about them (although I do use what someone says about others to gauge their own character).

Just what I need, another person judging me on shallow evidence.

creekbore has been stalking me for a while, and he's made this personal. If I lose my patience the last thing Im worried about is looking like a jerk.

trolls gonna troll, we're all just speculating on an internet forum when it comes down to it.

And a quasi-anonymous forum at that. Tongue

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 01, 2014, 03:07:00 AM

Quote from: David M on April 01, 2014, 02:59:38 AM

Quote from: cbeast on April 01, 2014, 02:58:26 AM

Quote from: David M on April 01, 2014, 02:53:39 AM

Bitcoinity has Gonzo as the background.

IIRC it's Beaker.

I think you are right. It's been a long time since I saw the Muppets..

+2 beaker

2800 on huobi, the first pump begins soon? debating.. it should imo but there is still a bit of uncertainty out there. Plus all the shorts that would have to close eventually

YEAH>>>> maybe a rally... but it seems really unlikely that we are going to get to any kind of $540-ish type numbers... and I think that we are getting pretty close to 48 hours for the poll... so it turns out the poll is NOT true about the $540 b/c we did NOT even break $490, to my recollection... so we have been lingering in this sub-$490 limbo land for a couple of days... with lows into the $430s... who would have thunk?

Quote from: boumalo on April 01, 2014, 05:44:32 AM

456$ on bitstamp, it will probably go lower Wink

Or we will all be surprise and it will spike up

I appreciate the high level of confidence and commitment that you exhume in your prediction!!! Grin

And surely I am betting that you are going to be correct

Quote from: EuroTrash on April 01, 2014, 06:03:12 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 01, 2014, 04:16:28 AM

Nice little wall at 350-450 has formed. This might give us another 1-4 weeks before 400 is broken, and maybe even a bulltrap to 550 or so where the next shorting opportunity will be.

I think that those orders are from new market meat. Like a friend of mine who called me a fool at 100, and yet he is now patiently waiting for his chance to become my greater fool. Their logic is quite simple: "it looks like it's going to go up but it is crashing now. 1000 is too much, 300 is right, let me put a bid at 350-450."
I think there are many of them this time. This month we'll see them fighting with the butthurt fools who want out of bitcoin.

Yeah... I see those kind of people saying $1000 is too much and then they want lower... then it goes lower and then they want lower.. and then it goes lower and they say, "shit, I cannot buy when prices are this low, b/c it may go down lower" They say, let me think about it... then they buy when it is going up and then they sell when it goes back down.. and blame you for getting them into it.

Quote from: TERA on April 01, 2014, 06:30:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 01, 2014, 06:28:46 AM

Quote from: EuroTrash on April 01, 2014, 06:03:12 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 01, 2014, 04:16:28 AM

Nice little wall at 350-450 has formed. This might give us another 1-4 weeks before 400 is broken, and maybe even a bulltrap to 550 or so where the next shorting opportunity will be.

I think that those orders are from new market meat. Like a friend of mine who called me a fool at 100, and yet he is now patiently waiting for his chance to become my greater fool. Their logic is quite simple: "it looks like it's going to go up but it is crashing now. 1000 is too much, 300 is right, let me put a bid at 350-450."
I think there are many of them this time. This month we'll see them fighting with the butthurt fools who want out of bitcoin.

Yeah... I see those kind of people saying $1000 is too much and then they want lower... then it goes lower and then they want lower.. and then it goes lower and they say, "shit, I cannot buy when prices are this low, b/c it may go down lower" They say, let me think about it... then they buy when it is going up and then they sell when it goes back down.. and blame you for getting them into it.

One of the biggest mistakes made by new traders is not incorporating TIME into their calculations.

I know that I was being a little stereotypical with my description of a certain kind of investor..... that is the kind of investor that keeps saying wait.. wait, wait.. and then when finally gets in.. jumps out too quickly based on emotions, rather than having some perspective or vision...

However, the other difficulty that comes about may be that BTC or whatever investment receives a lot of publicity when prices are on a bull run streak.. and therefor other kinds of more thoughtful people find out and buy in as the market prices are going up or approaching top of that bull run streak... Then these second kind of newbies may need to wait for a considerable amount of time - and sometimes years for the price to return to their initial buy-in level.... which sometimes in the interim, there is some kind of failure of the investment and price never returns to that previous high.

I describe this second newbie situation b/c it applies to my personal circumstances, and your recent bearish assessments do bother me to some extent even though it seems as if you have fairly decent insight for reaching your conclusions... I do appreciate and recognize your concerns about volume and concerns about why we are NOT seeing volume play out. Surely, recent volume is just lacking and that is a fact that we cannot escape in the very near short term - unless volume comes about as a surprise element.. which may be more wishful thinking, rather than real and measurable. Yet, BTC seems to be built around a kind of quasi-reality... of a few whales who are continuously able to influence BTC price quickly and surprisingly.

For example, some of these institutional investors in the pipeline - second market and such, seem to be very good potential sources for an onrush of BTC volume.. All of this may be pie in the sky, but seems like it could happen at sometime in the near future.. especially since BTC has been on a downtrend for four months (which is part of a 4 year pattern, with BTC). In this regard, even though we cannot really see on the surface from where the volume is going to come, the wider publicity of bitcoin over the last 6 months seems to cause very decent likelihood that some savior whale(s) are going to come to our rescue.. and thereafter cause a stampede of additional passengers on this train/rocket to da moon.

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 01, 2014, 06:35:03 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 01, 2014, 04:48:54 AM

This Chinese thread seems to say that bank deposit (?) at OKCoin was still working today (Apr/01) around 09:00 local time.

Thought it was clarified via bter that they were closing third party partners not a blanket ban.

IN the end, there was NO real news with any of this China FUD over the past two weeks-ish.. it was pretty much the same news as had come out in December 2013... just some rephrasing or recirculation.. but materially NOTHING really new.

Quote from: creekbore on April 01, 2014, 06:40:43 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 01, 2014, 05:25:36 AM

The 1 week EMAs are about to cross down. I would have been all over these coins 2 months ago but not now.

I'll be surprised if they do cross (given the last time they were intertwined was Dec 2012) but if they do...perhaps a return to a 2102 type market would be good for BTC, steady prices, let the wounds of Gox heal, improve the infrastructure.

As for cheap coins...well, as they say in sales: there's no such thing as cheap, only good value.
And value is a highly subjective thing.

Surely, there are various ways to consider value.. especially, if I am considering the value of a t-bone steak. Investments on the other hand have a considerable objective component, as well... and considerations about how others value it and building of infrastructure of utility.. etc etc... Subjective value, though a factor, just does NOT capture the ONLY aspect of what we should be measuring when considering when and how to invest.

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 01, 2014, 07:09:11 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 01, 2014, 07:05:41 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 01, 2014, 06:35:03 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 01, 2014, 04:48:54 AM

This Chinese thread seems to say that bank deposit (?) at OKCoin was still working today (Apr/01) around 09:00 local time.

Thought it was clarified via bter that they were closing third party partners not a blanket ban.

IN the end, there was NO real news with any of this China FUD over the past two weeks-ish.. it was pretty much the same news as had come out in December 2013... just some rephrasing or recirculation.. but materially NOTHING really new.

uh I consider the website directly addressing what was sent to them real. At least a stance based on something they we're enforced to follow.

In this rant, I was NOT alleging that the news was NOT real, I was just asserting that it was NOT new... NOTHING materially different from what we already knew in December 2013. There may have been different words or a different font or two spaces after the periods.. and things like that.. but nothing significantly different from what was already known in December 2013.

Quote from: FullLife on April 01, 2014, 07:41:29 AM

Quote from: oyvinds on April 01, 2014, 07:27:51 AM

Quote from: Zule on April 01, 2014, 07:17:51 AM

Thing are def happening on bfx right now. It looks as the shorts are panic closing and the amount of longs is rocketing, ltc longs too

..speaking of LTC..

remember that guy who sold 10k LTC short at $12.4 yesterday?

I sold 3900 at around $4.5 and then 10 days later watched it climb to $48.

Wow!!! 10x profit could have been amazing on that quantity...

Quote from: maximum on April 01, 2014, 07:48:49 AM

bids keep adding up, i think we will touch 500 this week.

When the current prices are "touching" $490, the question should be about whether we are hitting $540 rather than $500, no?

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 01, 2014, 07:49:30 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 01, 2014, 07:42:43 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 01, 2014, 07:09:11 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 01, 2014, 07:05:41 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 01, 2014, 06:35:03 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 01, 2014, 04:48:54 AM

This Chinese thread seems to say that bank deposit (?) at OKCoin was still working today (Apr/01) around 09:00 local time.

Thought it was clarified via bter that they were closing third party partners not a blanket ban.

IN the end, there was NO real news with any of this China FUD over the past two weeks-ish.. it was pretty much the same news as had come out in December 2013... just some rephrasing or recirculation.. but materially NOTHING really new.

uh I consider the website directly addressing what was sent to them real. At least a stance based on something they we're enforced to follow.

In this rant, I was NOT alleging that the news was NOT real, I was just asserting that it was NOT new... NOTHING materially different from what we already knew in December 2013. There may have been different words or a different font or two spaces after the periods.. and things like that.. but nothing significantly different from what was already known in December 2013.

what I learned from their statement that I hadn't gathered from any other FUD past or present was this time the pboc went to the third party payment processors opposed to the exchange, which I don't believe is ever directly addressed. The solution for BTER could be as easy as getting a commercial bank account. It just looks like the pboc is narrowing the channels without direction intervention at an exchange.

I agree with you that if china had changed the kinds of institutions that were affected by the restrictions then those could have been materially different - These restrictions still are very foggy to me, and I remain unclear about the impact..... on whether chinese people are going to be able to find effective and practical work arounds.... but surely, the fud impact is more important than reality.. anyhow.

Quote from: fonzie on April 01, 2014, 09:54:22 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on April 01, 2014, 09:51:53 AM

Quote from: fonzie on April 01, 2014, 09:44:48 AM

Quote from: Zule on April 01, 2014, 09:42:09 AM

Quote from: fonzie on April 01, 2014, 09:40:47 AM

BTC >500$ in 2014 RxIxP

I am Fonzie and i can cofirm!

It was >500 20 min ago Cool

Today is the last day you will see BTC >500$ this year.

Bet on it?

If you wan´t to gamble, buy Bitcoin.
If you wan´t profit short! at least until 200$

The real test of SUCH a BOLD proclamation is to bet on it... NOT to play the market....... FONZIE... PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS!!!!! or reformulate your prediction

Quote from: podyx on April 01, 2014, 04:34:05 PM

choo choo boys?

Just seems like we are lingering again.. maybe linger between $475 and $505 for a while, like 12 hours? Tension is building up... but maybe the breakout will be down... absent some angle whale... that's a whale savior...

If I knew for sure we were choo choo, then I would buy one more coin while we are still in the $400 territory, but who wants to buy at $485 when it remains possible to get them at $530 in less than 24 hours? I have already, in recent days, bought quite a few coins in the $446 to $486 range.

Quote from: smiley123 on April 01, 2014, 05:00:06 PM

Quote from: andyatcrux on April 01, 2014, 04:58:08 PM

Quote from: Asrael999 on April 01, 2014, 04:36:15 PM

Quote from: mah87 on April 01, 2014, 04:22:30 PM

Quote from: roslinpl on April 01, 2014, 04:21:34 PM

IRS cant hold us!

I do not live in USA but i wish this IRS thing will never happen - keeping record for one year of each smallest transaction is SICK!
They will understand it after short while!

Bitcoin for USA!

And about the price --- stabilizing

they understood that, this is on purpose to harm bitcoin and they'll harm and kill bitcoin, Ripple will take its place within few months. This is life.

individuals do not have to fill out form 1099. so for the vast majority this is inconsequential. They should be paying taxes on gains on bitcoins anyway.

Exactly, yet every time a news story that is positive, such as the Square Market news, pops up as #1 on google search, another rehashed story about the IRS guidelines pops up. All with outlandish headlines like "Bitcoin bites the dust" and "the end of Bitcoin" blah blah blah. Each article usually has some finance industry person bloviating about the doom and gloom that is pending for bitcoin. There seems to be a desperate effort to suppress Bitcoins acceptance at large. Desperate indeed. It is not even known if the IRS will stick with the guidelines and it is certainly starting to look more benign than many would have us believe. This constant recycling of old news is going to backfire, because people do catch on to bullshit eventually. Especially with a steady stream of fresh news pointing the the opposite trend that these FUD stories attempt to create.

First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win.

I don't know which stage we are at? And the stages may last a long time...

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 01, 2014, 08:08:29 PM

When Mt Gox was dying, the market slid for months. When they stopped accepting deposits (for the last time), the market crashed to $400 and immediately rebounded to $710.
The slide from $710 to $436 was because the eventual banning of BTC exchanges was being priced in. There was some confirmation of this with two small exchanges that took us from $486 back down to $440.

Markets hate uncertainty more than they hate bad news. Bad news can be priced in. Uncertainty by it's very nature cannot. What is certain is that when and if a final confirmation from the PBoC comes out or Chinese exchanges stop accepting deposits, the China Syndrome will be behind us and other factors will dominate price action.

The time to buy is when things are at their worst, when things can't get any worse. The irony is that Wall Street money will likely not come in until after we sell. If we never sell, it could take them months, years or eternity. Wall street doesn't want to share our success. They want to take our success from us. They're not angels. They are vultures. The only way to keep them out is to bootstrap another rally without them, have them buy in and we slowly and methodically take profits on the way up. It would require a level of support at least twice as high as what's on our current order books.

The two external possibilities that can save us are an official denial by the PBoC of an imminent bitcoin ban or a influx of billionaire whale money. Both are very possible but unlikely. As a community, the way we can save ourselves is for The Bottom to be defended on very high volume. Next dip below $550, buy like crazy and don't sell till you see $100 profit. That dip will come unless a whale intervenes. There will be no organic rally without another defense of the bottom.

Disclosure: I'm not talking my book here. I'm trapped in a leveraged long position and resigned to either sell at a profit or get wiped out in a margin call. I got screwed because I thought the PBoC would either confirm or deny the rumor by now. They claim to be concerned for the welfare of speculators and consumers and then keep us in the dark. I guess that's what we should expect from banksters.

Your attempt at concerted action is like herding cats..... I admire it, but really, I doubt you are gonna get people to engage in some mass buying campaign... b/c each of us is in a different position.. and maybe we do NOT have enough capital to buy, buy, buy.... I know the other strategy is to hodl and don't play the selling game..,..,. and that could cause prices to rise with smaller volume and cause a whale to come in that does NOT want to lose out on the upward momentum.....

You are correct about the intense bitterness that wallstreet likely has in regard to bitcoin investors and they are likely very reluctant to empower the "undeserving" early bitcoin adopters to make any high level(s) of profit.

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 01, 2014, 08:21:41 PM

Quote from: PeptoMax on April 01, 2014, 08:17:02 PM

So considering all that’s going on, when do you think is a good time to put in a large purchase at coin base?

not now, china is about to ban bitcoin for the 3rd time, its not getting old. nope!

This is the kind of news that people love... over and over and over... nice solid "news"

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 01, 2014, 08:38:40 PM

China likely won't criminalize ownership for a long time, if ever. What they can do is make it difficult for the Chinese people to buy bitcoins. As the current price is not a function of current utility, but a discounted expectation of future price, this could lead to a drop in price. The knowledge of less money flowing into bitcoinisphere from the Middle Kingdom is a downward pressure on price.

If I had billions, I would be pouring it into Bitcoin now, but I don't. If I had millions, I would be building walls around support at $400 to $450 (but I don't).

The utility of Bitcoin is still increasing rapidly. The system is anti-fragile and will survive and grow, but it will not be overnight and bitcoin profit will be earned- not given to you.

That's where the luck comes in, NO? Sometimes, if you are in the right place at the right time, viola!!!! Don't really know when and where that is gonna be... but with bitcoin, the rocket, bullet, train, is likely coming soon.. but based on some of the recent distractions and negative press may have been delayed by a month or two.

Quote from: gentacomp on April 01, 2014, 09:03:24 PM

Would be 600 USD next week (5-10 days) and more than 700 USD after http://bitcoinexpo.ca/ finished and stabilized in 700-750 until May. IF http://www.globalbtcsummit.com/en/ go smooth, June/July would be new highest price of all time...

Sorry no evidences, just a hunch...

That's reasonable!!! And, I love specific predictions, especially when I agree more or less with them.

By the way, there are NO real quantity of big name speakers in that BTC "global" conference set up.

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 01, 2014, 09:07:51 PM

Quote

Great news everyone! Bitcoin NOT banned in China!

Quote

BREAKING NEWS: Bobby Lee Confirms Bitcoin China Ban

hmmm....

interesting.

Are these quotes confirmed? Grin

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 01, 2014, 10:30:22 PM

Quote from: mmitech on April 01, 2014, 10:29:26 PM

Guys did you read what Pieter Wuille Bitcoin dev wrote ? I have no intention to make any fud but Bitcoin generation maybe not limited to 21 million as sopposed to be, they still dont know how the client will behave when they reach the last Block reward, and they think it will start over from 50 BTC....
https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0042.mediawiki

Quote

Although it is widely believed that Satoshi was an inflation-hating goldbug he never said this, and in fact programmed Bitcoin's money supply to grow indefinitely, forever. He modeled the monetary supply as 4 gold mines being discovered per mibillenium (1024 years), with equal intervals between them, each one being depleted over the course of 140 years.

This poses obvious problems, however. Prominent among them is the discussion on what to call 1 billion Bitcoin, which symbol color to use for it, and when wallet clients should switch to it by default.

To combat this, this document proposes a controversial change: making Bitcoin's monetary supply finite.

Details

As is well known, Satoshi was a master programmer whose knowledge of C++ was surpassed only by his knowledge of Japanese culture. The code below:

int64_t nSubsidy = 50 * COIN;
// Subsidy is cut in half every 210,000 blocks
// which will occur approximately every 4 years.
nSubsidy >>= (nHeight / 210000);
is carefully written to rely on undefined behaviour in the C++ specification - perhaps so it can be hardware accelerated in future.

The block number is divided by 210000 (the "apparent" subsidy halving interval in blocks), and the result is used as input for a binary shift, applied to the original payout (50 BTC), expressed in base units. Thanks to the new-goldmine interval being exactly 64 times the halving interval, and 64 being the size in bits of the currency datatype, the cycle repeats itself every 64 halvings on all currently supported platforms.

Despite the nice showoff of underhanded programming skills - we want Bitcoin to be well-specified. Otherwise, we're clearly in for a bumpy ride

ya and the Y2K bug will crash the planet.

Yeah..... let's worry about what could happen 140 years from now... as if it were the most pressing issue and as if it would be the end of the world if there were some unexpected glitch. I also heard that social security could go bankrupt in 30 years if NO one were to pay into it.

Quote from: surfer43 on April 01, 2014, 11:03:40 PM

Quote from: seleme on April 01, 2014, 10:50:19 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on April 01, 2014, 10:48:28 PM

Quote from: seleme on April 01, 2014, 10:41:56 PM

Guess you saw this one:

http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20140402/012118683625.shtml

Needs translation + proudhon confirmation.

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=hr&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Ffinance.sina.com.cn%2Froll%2F20140402%2F012118683625.shtml

This part is the best Grin

Quote

December 5 last year, including the central bank and other five ministries jointly issued "on guard against the risk of Bitcoin notice" (Yin Fa [2013] No. 289, hereinafter referred to as "Notice"). "Notice" clearly the nature of Bitcoin that Bitcoin is not issued by the monetary authorities, such as not having sex with mandatory legal tender currency property, not money in the true sense.

This made me spit coca-cola all over my laptop. Cheesy

You shouldnt be drinking that shit, anyhow. Tongue

Quote from: Hen0xyd on April 01, 2014, 11:54:48 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 01, 2014, 10:53:22 PM

The best FUD always comes at the bottom

http://qz.com/193931/bitcoin-looks-like-the-worst-investment-in-the-world-this-year/

Indeed, I loled hard. That "redactor" is really epic ; can't even plead incompetence, he's really doing it on purpose... or maybe :
- he just took a random range : 3 months (yeah 3 is good),
- from hmm let's say since the ATH and oh surprise after an ATH we got a correction. Ok so it's "a crash", -38% value OMG worst investissement ever ! (So why not the title, really shinny)
- let's not check the 4 years before with around +10000%/year instead of -38%.

I guess some of the words in his Twitter description needs to be switched : "I write about finance, markets and economics for Quartz. Decent guitarist. Terrible banjo player." !

We could also measure BTC from late November 2013 to its present price, and achieve more than 60% loss in value.

Funny thing also, is currently, when I look up the November 2013 time-frame on bitcoincharts.com. Regarding Bitstamp, I find a BTC price high of about $1150; however, I bought my first BTC on 11/29 through Localbitcoins for $1200 per BTC. We already know that Localbitcoins can have a very wide range of prices, and frequently the sellers thereon are able to sell at much beyond the price in other venues. I recall that I did NOT buy from the highest vender or on the highest day. And I recall between November 29 and December 5 -ish seeing that there were advertisements on localbitcoins for nearly $1600 per BTC. I do NOT know whether many BTC were transacted at prices between $1200 and $1600, yet with all the hype at the time, I would imagine that there would have been quite a few BTCs transacted in that price range.

I do NOT mind flash crashes, but hovering and lingering in the $480 range for too long causes me to begin to believe that it is going to take a while for BTC prices to return to ATH... and maybe, just maybe we will NOT see another ATH this calendar year. A lot of us were banking on another BTC ATH this calendar year.. but maybe that new ATH will be put off until 2015? If I were a betting man, I would need to be given fairly decent odds before I would take the new ATH in 2014 bet.

in other words... currently, blood is beginning to seep into the streets... and if BTC prices were to go to the $300s and then linger in the $300s... that would increase perceptions of BTC doom and gloom... though ATM, I would place the odds of reaching $390 in the next month to be greater than the odds of reaching a new ATH before August 2014... that is my current thinking... but I am talking out of my ass somewhat b/c I am like a cave dweller in plato's allegory of the cave... with very much incomplete information and I realize that if some big ass investor (anything of 100 million or greater) were to come into BTC at any minute.. that new entrance into BTC could cause a real high demand for BTC and a rippling effect beyond any lines on any charts.. and suddenly considerable volume would materialize where, at the moment, LITTLE volume seems to be in sight.

Quote from: stan.distortion on April 01, 2014, 11:58:44 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 01, 2014, 11:39:26 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCHCf8qY4so

Grin

the things people say.......

Omfg, its a laugh a minute today

Joking aside, potential alternatives to fiat have been under attack for a long time and public perception of things like PM's as a store of value has changed considerably, it sounds like a conspiracy nut job story but its become blatant with Bitcoin. PM market manipulation sounds like a nut job story too but its worth looking in to and if there's any truth in it then the bitcoin markets are also a prime target, I'm probably preaching to the choir with that but just in case... know your enemy.

I'M lost with the acronym "PM" = Huh

I thought PM was personal messages.

Are you talking about sending bitcoins via PM? - like M-Pesa in Kenya?

I know that they have this texting value (minutes) Kenya and it may be very applicable to bitcoin..

Quote from: surfer43 on April 02, 2014, 12:04:10 AM

Bitstamp buy support is slowly mounting.

Quote

You shouldnt be drinking that shit, anyhow. Tongue

I agree. I don't drink it very often.

We'll maybe when you drink it, you become more cheerful and easily humored... ? At least when you get the buzz from it before it kills you? Shocked

I am joking a little bit bc I could give a ratt's ass what people do or choose to do. Personally, I stopped drinking most sugary beverages (including sodas and a lot of the other crap) nearly three years ago. And, diet versions are probably as bad, if NOT worse, then some of the non-diet versions. Actually, it took quite some time to ween myself completely, b/c they are fairly addictive, believe it or NOT. My current vice, if you would call it that, is buying young coconuts and drinking the juice from there. A little more expensive than sodas... but likely to be pretty good nutrition with a pretty decent taste, once you extract yourself from sugar cravings.

Quote from: gentlemand on April 02, 2014, 12:50:25 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 12:43:35 AM

Quote from: stan.distortion on April 01, 2014, 11:58:44 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 01, 2014, 11:39:26 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCHCf8qY4so

Grin

the things people say.......

Omfg, its a laugh a minute today

Joking aside, potential alternatives to fiat have been under attack for a long time and public perception of things like PM's as a store of value has changed considerably, it sounds like a conspiracy nut job story but its become blatant with Bitcoin. PM market manipulation sounds like a nut job story too but its worth looking in to and if there's any truth in it then the bitcoin markets are also a prime target, I'm probably preaching to the choir with that but just in case... know your enemy.

I'M lost with the acronym "PM" = Huh

I thought PM was personal messages.

Are you talking about sending bitcoins via PM? - like M-Pesa in Kenya?

I know that they have this texting value (minutes) Kenya and it may be very applicable to bitcoin..

Precious Metals.

Thanks Gentlemand - you certainly are living up to your name. I must have been having a brain fart. The post makes much more sense with that explanation.

Quote from: chessnut on April 02, 2014, 12:50:47 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 12:37:29 AM

I do NOT mind flash crashes, but hovering and lingering in the $480 range for too long causes me to begin to believe that it is going to take a while for BTC prices to return to ATH... and maybe, just maybe we will NOT see another ATH this calendar year. A lot of us were banking on another BTC ATH this calendar year.. but maybe that new ATH will be put off until 2015? If I were a betting man, I would need to be given fairly decent odds before I would take the new ATH in 2014 bet.

It's playing out just as the last bubbles. we have been here before, in this pit of doom and gloom 5 times.

Bitcoin cannot stay idle for years, it will rocket or fall.

The fundamentals have not changed, I think you will see your ATH this year and some.

Thanks. I am NOT going from personal experience in terms of my own buying history b/c as I have mentioned several times, I began to buy in the end of November 2013.

So my question to any of you who have been around for previous upswings and flat downward trends that followed... was there a drying up of the volume right before the burst upward?

I mean it is possible that we are NOT going to have a choo choo in the next few weeks.. but the choo choo may have a certain degree of inability to predict exactly when b/c you get one big investor... and viola... CCMF.... that one investor is contagious to all the others who do NOT want to miss the train/rocket.... and we are on our merry way.

Can anyone address this denigration of volume question? And, in this particular moment, we have quite a bit of BTC transactions that seem to be occurring off of exchanges b/c there may be a bit of skepticism about putting too much capital on any of the exchanges after the GOX situation (and a few other more minor BTC thefts that were exchange related - including SR2).

Quote from: spooderman on April 02, 2014, 12:57:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 12:50:14 AM

Quote from: surfer43 on April 02, 2014, 12:04:10 AM

Bitstamp buy support is slowly mounting.

Quote

You shouldnt be drinking that shit, anyhow. Tongue

I agree. I don't drink it very often.

We'll maybe when you drink it, you become more cheerful and easily humored... ? At least when you get the buzz from it before it kills you? Shocked

I am joking a little bit bc I could give a ratt's ass what people do or choose to do. Personally, I stopped drinking most sugary beverages (including sodas and a lot of the other crap) nearly three years ago. And, diet versions are probably as bad, if NOT worse, then some of the non-diet versions. Actually, it took quite some time to ween myself completely, b/c they are fairly addictive, believe it or NOT. My current vice, if you would call it that, is buying young coconuts and drinking the juice from there. A little more expensive than sodas... but likely to be pretty good nutrition with a pretty decent taste, once you extract yourself from sugar cravings.

Good choice, coconut water is undoubtedly better than any soda, and diet soda?!?! Aspartame is something you should probably never consume. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCxnKwCsW7I

Congratz on becoming a "member" btw

I enjoy your posts.

Thanks... I had noticed the "Jr" had disappeared from my title... he he he... That status update does feel a little better. and when I had the title Newbie, at least one person, or maybe it was a bot, who I will leave unnamed for now was trying to minimize my contribution by specifically referring to me as "newbie."

Quote from: favelle75 on April 02, 2014, 01:33:53 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 12:37:29 AM

Quote from: Hen0xyd on April 01, 2014, 11:54:48 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 01, 2014, 10:53:22 PM

The best FUD always comes at the bottom

http://qz.com/193931/bitcoin-looks-like-the-worst-investment-in-the-world-this-year/

Indeed, I loled hard. That "redactor" is really epic ; can't even plead incompetence, he's really doing it on purpose... or maybe :
- he just took a random range : 3 months (yeah 3 is good),
- from hmm let's say since the ATH and oh surprise after an ATH we got a correction. Ok so it's "a crash", -38% value OMG worst investissement ever ! (So why not the title, really shinny)
- let's not check the 4 years before with around +10000%/year instead of -38%.

I guess some of the words in his Twitter description needs to be switched : "I write about finance, markets and economics for Quartz. Decent guitarist. Terrible banjo player." !

We could also measure BTC from late November 2013 to its present price, and achieve more than 60% loss in value.

Funny thing also, is currently, when I look up the November 2013 time-frame on bitcoincharts.com. Regarding Bitstamp, I find a BTC price high of about $1150; however, I bought my first BTC on 11/29 through Localbitcoins for $1200 per BTC. We already know that Localbitcoins can have a very wide range of prices, and frequently the sellers thereon are able to sell at much beyond the price in other venues. I recall that I did NOT buy from the highest vender or on the highest day. And I recall between November 29 and December 5 -ish seeing that there were advertisements on localbitcoins for nearly $1600 per BTC. I do NOT know whether many BTC were transacted at prices between $1200 and $1600, yet with all the hype at the time, I would imagine that there would have been quite a few BTCs transacted in that price range.

I do NOT mind flash crashes, but hovering and lingering in the $480 range for too long causes me to begin to believe that it is going to take a while for BTC prices to return to ATH... and maybe, just maybe we will NOT see another ATH this calendar year. A lot of us were banking on another BTC ATH this calendar year.. but maybe that new ATH will be put off until 2015? If I were a betting man, I would need to be given fairly decent odds before I would take the new ATH in 2014 bet.

in other words... currently, blood is beginning to seep into the streets... and if BTC prices were to go to the $300s and then linger in the $300s... that would increase perceptions of BTC doom and gloom... though ATM, I would place the odds of reaching $390 in the next month to be greater than the odds of reaching a new ATH before August 2014... that is my current thinking... but I am talking out of my ass somewhat b/c I am like a cave dweller in plato's allegory of the cave... with very much incomplete information and I realize that if some big ass investor (anything of 100 million or greater) were to come into BTC at any minute.. that new entrance into BTC could cause a real high demand for BTC and a rippling effect beyond any lines on any charts.. and suddenly considerable volume would materialize where, at the moment, LITTLE volume seems to be in sight.

Good thing you don't play real stocks or forex...because 6 months is a tiny blip on the radar in the real financial world.

I am NOT sure about your point in response to my post.

My post was intended to provide an assessment and description of the BTC situation from my perspective, experience and at this point in time... maybe you can perceive some naivette in my description of the situation, yet seems to me that I ventured out and put some time into making a description. No?

So what is your point, then in making your response? Is BTC NOT part of the real financial world? Sure it is a different animal in some ways, but likely there is some similarities as well.

Do you have some real financial world experience that you believe will provide insight to this situation? Then, please feel free to contribute and add perspective. My post is NOT about me, even though I was adding some of my experience and perspective..... but I wrote it out as part of an intended interactive process to whatever extent the information contained therein may or may NOT be valuable or helpful to some reader(s) of such information.

I look forward to hearing more from you... I think Huh

Quote from: KeyserSoze on April 02, 2014, 02:05:28 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 02, 2014, 01:42:13 AM

A Judge Has Ordered The CEO Of Bankrupt Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox To Appear In The US
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-judge-orders-mt-gox-ceo-to-us-for-questions-on-failed-bitcoin-exchange-2014-01

Will the plane make it to the USA or will it be diverted to Gitmo, with Mark never to be seen again until the Polaroids of him being peed on by Gitmo guards surface?

"Peed" sounds too Pg-13.

Quote from: creekbore on April 02, 2014, 02:55:06 AM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on April 02, 2014, 02:05:28 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 02, 2014, 01:42:13 AM

A Judge Has Ordered The CEO Of Bankrupt Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox To Appear In The US
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-judge-orders-mt-gox-ceo-to-us-for-questions-on-failed-bitcoin-exchange-2014-01

Will the plane make it to the USA or will it be diverted to Gitmo, with Mark never to be seen again until the Polaroids of him being peed on by Gitmo guards surface?

Do you they have those orange jump suits in XXX-Large?

And, a four legged one for his cat?

Quote from: windjc on April 02, 2014, 05:35:42 AM

Quote from: EuroTrash on April 02, 2014, 05:12:58 AM

Feeling fear again.
The bid side looks enormous but I think it is fake as it always has been during the crash. (Coinbase/SecondMarket bots?)
The ask side looks thin and that is probably real. Whoever wanted to sell already did before.
If no new money comes in, prices naturally drop slowly because fees.
And market apathy doesn't do good to bitcoin. Makes hodlers go nervous.

I think this is the epitome of a bear market condition. Bitcoin is currently inflationary, so without a certain amount of new money coming in, the market goes down.

There are a lot of bids down to 400. But if they were so eager to buy, why are they not buying? Whats the difference between 400 and 470? Granted, its 17.5%, but still if they wanted the coins so bad, they are right there for the taking.

In my opinion, the longer we don't go up, the more likely we are to go down. Its already Wednesday in most places. We have about 36 hours to make an upwards move, in my opinion, or there are going to be some selling going on.

Of course, I guess we could just inch down like we did from 710 slowly and surely.

I find it a lot more difficult to take someone serious when they are asking silly ass questions.

We (bullish ones) do NOT know if the market is moving up or down in the short-term.. surely the bullish ones have been buying, and BTC has been in the $400s for 3 days... I am sure many bullish have already bought.. but maybe would buy more if there was some certainty about whether in the short term we were going up or down... even though in the long run the bullish ones are expecting BTC to go up....

I bought some BTC in the $440s, in the $450s and in the $480s in recent days. Generally, I am waiting, and I have NO idea which way the price is going to go in the short term, though I may buy again in the $450s, but if it is possible that the price will go to the low $400s, then I would prefer to buy there.... and if the BTC price is going into the 300s, then I would prefer to buy there. If I know for sure the price is NOT going to return to the $400s, then I will buy a little more in the $490s... so what the fuck.. we don't really know what the fuck the price is gonna do in the short term... it's a silly question to ask why aren't the bulls buying...

Anyhow, your statement seems just to attempt to incite argument just for the sake of argument... b/c truly you should be able to figure out the answer to such question.

EDITED above to break into three paragraphs and add a little bit of "fucks" Cheesy

Quote from: KFR on April 02, 2014, 09:00:15 AM

Just couldn't resist. Soo cute. Cool

Is that a cute bear (if they can be cute), saying OOOOHHHH SHIT!!!

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on April 02, 2014, 05:05:24 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 02, 2014, 05:03:31 PM

440 down

this is the end

Cry

The end of what?

It's just the beginning of cheap coins. Yippee

What is the china news exactly that is supposedly causing this current downtrend?

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on April 02, 2014, 05:42:35 PM

Who knows what the price was before China's involvement? If you do then you know the low for now.

The price will be higher than the price before china's involvement... for a few reasons including at least these two... 1) other infrastructure has developed and 2) china will find a way to stay involved even if there were some restrictions on them

Quote from: bangersdad on April 02, 2014, 05:59:33 PM

TOOO symmetric..... .cannot be real.... so a fake shitting your pants

Quote from: roslinpl on April 02, 2014, 06:01:25 PM

Quote from: aminorex on April 02, 2014, 05:32:22 PM

I started buying again after selling at 495 earlier this week.

good choice :-)

Best time to buy from a long time :-)

That's part of the problem in that buying opportunities keep getting better and better and better

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 02, 2014, 06:03:59 PM

Quote from: chromosoma on April 02, 2014, 06:02:46 PM

This is my professiAnal predicition on bitcoin price development:

I've seen a lot of those here.
Not that the outcome is similar, but the refinement of the prediction

This particular depiction is missing the past in order to understand whether the prediction is reasonable and within context

Quote from: fonzie on April 02, 2014, 06:43:10 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 06:40:50 PM

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on April 02, 2014, 05:42:35 PM

Who knows what the price was before China's involvement? If you do then you know the low for now.

The price will be higher than the price before china's involvement... for a few reasons including at least these two... 1) other infrastructure has developed and 2) china will find a way to stay involved even if there were some restrictions on them

3) a lot of money has gone down the toilet with MtGox
4) there are now more coins available than before
5) due to Gox´s fraudulent actions(price manipulation) we will never know what the real price would have been in the last months
?

I fixed the above additions b/c they are inconsistent with the initial post and make little sense within the context of the initial post

Quote from: exponential on April 02, 2014, 06:54:36 PM

I am sadly guessing we are going to go lower than 400 if any other negative news comes out from china which I think it will. I kind of want to sell now and buy back more coins lower but seeing my past luck It would be smartest for me to HODL.

I tend to have this problem, too.

Quote from: dreamspark on April 02, 2014, 12:47:10 PM

So now $15 price movements are classed as significant?

As we know, the lower the price goes, the less money it takes to be considered significant.

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 02, 2014, 01:17:45 PM

You will see the end of this bear market by these following indicators.

1) The price will go lower then most expected
2) The price will remain low longer then most expected
3) The loudest and the most enthusiastic bulls will start to blame bitcoin and everyone involved for the situation and then write dramatic final speeches of them leaving.

If you will get tired of seeing indicator 3, then it's time to buy, not before.

We have already met all three sufficiently for the price to rise.... at least 1 and 2, which seem the most potentially relevant to this lame-ish description of prerequisites.

Regarding #2 we have been between $420 and $599 for about 3 weeks... that is quite a long time.

Actually, regarding #3, this is NOT any kind of necessary prerequisite

Quote from: Buffer Overflow on April 02, 2014, 02:48:41 PM

Might as well just write China off and move on. I did that last year before Christmas. Chinese government don't want bitcoin, it is very obvious indeed. The Chinese government will get what they want, you can be certain of that.

NONE of this is obvious... and certainly the chinese is NOT as hostile to BTC as my be apparent... they would like to have various vehicles in which to invest outside of the dollar... and btc is one of those vehicles... they may seem to have some concerns about bitcoin and its affect on capital controls, but in the end NONE Of this is apparent concerning their overall love/hate relationship with bitcoin.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 02, 2014, 07:29:49 PM

(Apologies if this has been posted already.)
From the BTCTrade site,

Quote

尊敬的用户：今天接到第三方支付渠道通知，将于近期暂停网上直接充值的功能，充值将继续采用银行转账方式，日常交易及提现不受影响，敬请谅解！针对近期415事件，比特币交易网（btctrade.com）暂未接到任何通知，近期行情波动幅度较大，请各位投资者谨慎投资。

Google Translate:

Quote

Dear user: third-party payment channels received notification today, will soon be suspended directly online recharge feature, recharge will continue to use bank transfers, daily transactions and withdrawals are not affected, please understand! 415 for the recent events, Bitcoin transaction network (btctrade.com) yet received any notice, the recent market volatility is large, please investors cautious investment.

WTF?

This is NOT really news, is it? What is the change, exactly that supposedly took place since we found out about this in December 2013, no?

Quote from: CoinThinker on April 02, 2014, 07:37:49 PM

Guys, you all are a part of the problem... You think that you're so smart, talking about bulls and bears, and a lot of rubbish.

You need to realize: Bitcoin is going to fall unless there will be more people interested in buying them. And trust me, a person who gets to bitcointalk.org to get some info, and decide whether to invest or no, and actually starts to read this thread as the most popular one, and dedicated to discussion about the price, etc. and starts to read a zoology treaty will consider all this a big joke.
Do you think if an investor would have some interest in the stock market, on a specific company, and when trying to get more information about his potential investment would start to read all this rubbish, will NEVER invest. Some computer geeks who think they are business men, or who never actually leave their rooms, are being "smart" here... in a business you need to be serious first of all, and bulls and bears have nothing to do with Bitcoins as an investment.

The other problem is that altcoins are falling down. They were the ticket for late investors to adopt Bitcoin. So, there is a very very strong relationship between those and BTC. I always told, the minute altcoins will die, BTC will too. Simply because nobody is going to pay hard cash at this prices for something where the "insiders" are talking about bears and bulls, instead of serious matters in a serious language.

You cannot control the kinds of content that people post on these kinds of anonymous forums with any kind of degree - there is a multitude of interests, and some of which do NOT want bitcoin to succeed.

Quote from: stan.distortion on April 02, 2014, 07:39:23 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 07:36:21 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 02, 2014, 01:17:45 PM

You will see the end of this bear market by these following indicators.

1) The price will go lower then most expected
2) The price will remain low longer then most expected
3) The loudest and the most enthusiastic bulls will start to blame bitcoin and everyone involved for the situation and then write dramatic final speeches of them leaving.

If you will get tired of seeing indicator 3, then it's time to buy, not before.

We have already met all three sufficiently for the price to rise.... at least 1 and 2, which seem the most potentially relevant to this lame-ish description of prerequisites.

Regarding #2 we have been between $420 and $599 for about 3 weeks... that is quite a long time.

Actually, regarding #3, this is NOT any kind of necessary prerequisite

I'm leaving, never to return. All bitcoiners are bastards.

And you are an asshole... especially if you are a bitcoiner... .. whether you renounce bitcoin or NOT.. I know you have at one time embraced bitcoin.... and I hate all you assholes... but I am going to stick around and keep spreading this message with sincerity, until the price goes up...

JUST TO SHOW YOU THAT I MEAN IT>>>> YOU GUYS GALS or Whatevers, are ASSHOLES

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 02, 2014, 07:50:32 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 07:36:21 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 02, 2014, 01:17:45 PM

You will see the end of this bear market by these following indicators.

1) The price will go lower then most expected
2) The price will remain low longer then most expected
3) The loudest and the most enthusiastic bulls will start to blame bitcoin and everyone involved for the situation and then write dramatic final speeches of them leaving.

If you will get tired of seeing indicator 3, then it's time to buy, not before.

We have already met all three sufficiently for the price to rise.... at least 1 and 2, which seem the most potentially relevant to this lame-ish description of prerequisites.

Regarding #2 we have been between $420 and $599 for about 3 weeks... that is quite a long time.

Actually, regarding #3, this is NOT any kind of necessary prerequisite

No, it isn't so, sorry.
"400 is the bottom" has been the most popular belief and fools are still cheering for bitcoin going up. There has to be something stronger, that will shake the fools. Always exit an market when fools enter, and always enter the market when fools exit. And don't ever enter the market, that everyone is talking about, or else you will be the fool. Right now there is a lot of agony from those who bought at the top of the last bubble, but there has to be total desperation with dramatic finishing speeches etc. Then you know that the market is set to buy in.

The more you attempt to explain, the less sense that you make. Your comments are filled with generalizations that fail to take into account a broader bitcoin history. None of us can predict exactly where bitcoin is going or when is the bottom exactly.. except based on a variety of factors and information including entrances and exits into the market space. Some people claim to be more knowledgeable and concrete in their predictions than others. Some will be right and some will be wrong some will become rich and others maybe not so much.

By the way, it is a little bit more difficult to lose money in a growing market, but some traders manage to accomplish that, too.... so there is quite a variety of traders and predictions and bets accordingly.

Quote from: fonzie on April 02, 2014, 07:55:10 PM

BTW;

Is Goat still promoting "holding" in his thread? Or has he deleted that as well?

This forum should NOT allow deleting.. maybe after a day or some other reasonable short period.

Quote from: fonzie on April 02, 2014, 07:58:42 PM

@Mervyn_Pumpkinhead

I´m glad you joined to forum. I´m totally down with all of your posts and like the style of your arguments.
I can´t write like this because i´m too big of a troll.

But your opinion fits mine pretty close.

I hope you don´t feel insulted now.

This endorsement is going to help Mervyn_Pumpkinhead with his credibility and reputation in this forum.

Quote from: magicmexican on April 02, 2014, 08:05:12 PM

Free tip of the day :

So even the content of the referred to post will NOT show up, if you ignore someone? I have NOTICED Quite a bit of disinformation posted in this thread, but usually, I can just mentally block out the ones who tend to speak too much out of their asses.... with the gobbledy gook.

Quote from: fonzie on April 02, 2014, 08:38:30 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on April 02, 2014, 08:35:06 PM

^ A+

If someone ignores me and i´m quoting him, the chances are about 97% that he will me unignore me and read my post.
Cheesy

It´s all a big fuckin trap.

Gotcha Magicmexican

YOU are pulling those statistic (97%) out of your ass, just like you do with BTC predictions. Cheesy

Also, you would NOT be able to measure whether someone who had ignored you had read your post(s)... so you have no way of knowing, except if you were to do some kind of survey, which could give you some kind of probability, which I doubt that you have done any such survey (and if you did do a survey, out would probably be some kind of half-assed kind of survey, such as asking what Fonzie would do in such circumstances.. and FYI, a survey of 1 is NOT a proper survey. Tongue

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on April 02, 2014, 08:46:57 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 02, 2014, 08:40:39 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 08:22:37 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 02, 2014, 07:50:32 PM

Always exit an market when fools enter, and always enter the market when fools exit. And don't ever enter the market, that everyone is talking about, or else you will be the fool. Right now there is a lot of agony from those who bought at the top of the last bubble, but there has to be total desperation with dramatic finishing speeches etc. Then you know that the market is set to buy in.

The more you attempt to explain, the less sense that you make.

+1

The market is awash with people who definitely have no coin but apparently are very interested in it, otherwise they would not spend their time talking about it. Hence,
- They want to buy bitcoins => Bitcoin price goes up
- They are paid trolls by some who want to disturb the scene => The puppetmasters want to buy => Bitcoin price goes up.

Never does a bear have any teeth to force the price down. The bear can only buy, which makes the price go up.
(the converse for bulls ofc)

It is quite simple to invest when you know the rule that it is the least risky to enter when there is most bearishness around. Almost nobody has any coins to sell, and every bearish post is a proof of craving to buy lower, and if this is not granted, panic buy higher.

I think this dude is getting too much shit here for making bearish posts. Sure he is a FUDster, and he might be wrong in his predictions (I have no idea really), but what he says here isn't that crazy to justify the amount of flack, is it?
To me, that might signal that some bulls are starting to feel uneasy.
Or I might just be looking for sentiment indicators too much, and am starting to see things

He says some pretty stupid shit, too.... like to say that the bulls gotta be fighting and irritated before the market is gonna go up... And, there were some other dumb things too, like he admires trolls and I am sure there is more, but there is NOT enough time in a day or life to be wasting in looking back for some more examples... ...

Surely, everyone says dumb things once in a while, but somethings cross lines... ... and maybe newer posters should be more careful to attempt to build some credibility before the get too far into the crap content posts... no? I am just one opinion.. so really does NOT matter too much what I think.

Quote from: Mythul on April 02, 2014, 08:47:05 PM

In the mean time....Russia is on the verge of invading eastern Ukraine...

That is almost like predicting BTC prices. Is it really going to happen, and if so when, and by how much... whatever... sounds like the topic of another thread, even though these kinds of events could affect BTC prices b/c of supply and demand in the event that BTC were to be increasingly implemented or used b/c of these kinds of world events.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 02, 2014, 08:59:20 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 08:07:17 PM

WTF?

This is NOT really news, is it? What is the change, exactly that supposedly took place since we found out about this in December 2013, no?

Well, it seems that most of the Chinese exchanges were still using bank transfers to/from corporate accounts and some form of payment through 3rd party processors (prepaid cards?) for CNY deposits and withdrawals. Even BTC-China, which avoided banks after the December decrees, eventually started doing the same.

One by one, the exchanges are reporting now that those channels are being closed; most are suspending CNY deposits, one (BTC38) suspended also CNY withdrawals it seems, another (FXBTC) said it will stop CNY withdrawals next Sunday.

It is not clear exactly which of the two methods are closed in each case (I do not know exactly how the "cards" they use work). However, on the whole it seems that deposits through both channels are being blocked already, it is just a matter of days; and withdrawals very probably will be blocked too soon afterwards.

The Cryptocoins News article dis not mention BTCTrade; that was one more for the list.

OK Thanks. That does sound as if it is more significant than what had been announced in December 2013 - especially if it is unclear about whether there will be effective work arounds. I do have some confidence that the Chinese will find some work arounds; however, if there is movement from the "open" to the "black market," then that would likely dry up a lot of volume... and in that regard, it would make sense that we may continue to get considerable downward pressure on BTC prices to account for these current circumstances.

Regarding price, though it does still seem too soon to sell b/c it remains somewhat unclear that prices will for sure continue to drop or whether the most impact of the news has already been priced in to the current price. The news will continue to make us a little more on pins and needles, so additional negative news could cause some further price pressures.. especially given what appears to be ongoing relatively low volume.

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 02, 2014, 09:00:34 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 02, 2014, 08:40:39 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 08:22:37 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 02, 2014, 07:50:32 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 07:36:21 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 02, 2014, 01:17:45 PM

You will see the end of this bear market by these following indicators.

1) The price will go lower then most expected
2) The price will remain low longer then most expected
3) The loudest and the most enthusiastic bulls will start to blame bitcoin and everyone involved for the situation and then write dramatic final speeches of them leaving.

If you will get tired of seeing indicator 3, then it's time to buy, not before.

We have already met all three sufficiently for the price to rise.... at least 1 and 2, which seem the most potentially relevant to this lame-ish description of prerequisites.

Regarding #2 we have been between $420 and $599 for about 3 weeks... that is quite a long time.

Actually, regarding #3, this is NOT any kind of necessary prerequisite

No, it isn't so, sorry.
"400 is the bottom" has been the most popular belief and fools are still cheering for bitcoin going up. There has to be something stronger, that will shake the fools. Always exit an market when fools enter, and always enter the market when fools exit. And don't ever enter the market, that everyone is talking about, or else you will be the fool. Right now there is a lot of agony from those who bought at the top of the last bubble, but there has to be total desperation with dramatic finishing speeches etc. Then you know that the market is set to buy in.

The more you attempt to explain, the less sense that you make.

+1

The market is awash with people who definitely have no coin but apparently are very interested in it, otherwise they would not spend their time talking about it. Hence,
- They want to buy bitcoins => Bitcoin price goes up
- They are paid trolls by some who want to disturb the scene => The puppetmasters want to buy => Bitcoin price goes up.

Never does a bear have any teeth to force the price down. The bear can only buy, which makes the price go up.
(the converse for bulls ofc)

It is quite simple to invest when you know the rule that it is the least risky to enter when there is most bearishness around. Almost nobody has any coins to sell, and every bearish post is a proof of craving to buy lower, and if this is not granted, panic buy higher.

I would probably like to buy some altcoins if the investment will look profitable enough. I'm interested in BTCs price, mainly because altcoins are strongly linked to it. And of course I'm interested that BTC would stop this slow downfall and start a new upwards trend. But it can only happen with important positive developments in the market system or if the price is low enough, that there really isn't any room left. And these solid lows won't exist short-term, but these lows will last weeks or months, like they always do. It seems like you guys don't even understand the basic knowledge on trend reversals, or you are playing dumb and manipulating others to buy.

First of all you are getting into some kind of weird idea that alts are better than BTC... and possibly, you may be able to get more of a pump out of the several hundred alt options... and you can play your information as you will. I am sure that you will tell us after the fact how much money you made in alts... which may or may NOT be true and hard to prove... Further this is NOT a thread about alts. Anyhow, many on this thread believe BTC is the main man.. or the main coin at least for the foreseeable future.. next year or two.. even though there could be profit in other coins. and even though another coin may come to compete with BTC. At the moment, BTC does NOT really have any meaningful competition in the long term.. even though there may be some good investment opportunities in some various and or random alt coins... depending on which one(s) you choose.

Second: it is all fine and dandy that you want to tell us your intentions and your investment plans; however, when you start to accuse us with manipulation, you are acting like a a jerk... and for what purpose? Do you have something that you want to contribute to the thread, then no problem... give us your perspective - that is what each of us are doing giving perspective.. .. so a bull or a bear for that matter is NOT automatically manipulating.. unless you have some specific information about such manipulation, it is NOT really necessary to accuse others of manipulation.

Quote from: MinermanNC on April 02, 2014, 09:17:04 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 09:15:51 PM

Quote from: Mythul on April 02, 2014, 08:47:05 PM

In the mean time....Russia is on the verge of invading eastern Ukraine...

That is almost like predicting BTC prices. Is it really going to happen, and if so when, and by how much... whatever... sounds like the topic of another thread, even though these kinds of events could affect BTC prices b/c of supply and demand in the event that BTC were to be increasingly implemented or used b/c of these kinds of world events.

Great response btw

Thx... I do believe, though, to the extent that we are NOT battling trolls and other stupid ass disinformation posts, there is a lot of potential in this speculation thread to discuss how various world events and world circumstances play into the price of bitcoin and the expected increases in adoption. There are so many countries or groups of people who likely going to recognize bitcoin prospects and to incorporate bitcoin related technologies into their lives. Surely, the world will NOT be saved in any quick or meaningful way b/c there are likely going to be a lot of battles ahead... including competing and deceptive btc-like imitations.

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 02, 2014, 09:48:57 PM

I'm clad to see that you see investing into alts as weird.

Also, I'm not accusing anyone of manipulation. All I'm saying that these constant errors of calling false bottoms and trend reversals come either out of stupidity or we are dealing with deliberate acts of misdirection.

You make little to no sense, and likely your post is NOT even worth this response.... b/c you tend to be inclined towards the twisting of words and perverting of reality which gives me the sense that you are NOT genuinely attempting to contribute to a meaningful communication regarding bitcoin speculation, but instead to divert with name calling and pie in the sky detractions from this thread - which is BTC speculation, btw, - NOT getting into some random discussion about some random alt.. There are likely plenty of threads that you can explore regarding the various alts... Good luck with your alt coin explorations.

Quote from: stan.distortion on April 02, 2014, 10:01:58 PM

Hello, good to see your in it for the right reasons

Its for everyone and that includes assholes, the systems strong enough to face off any realistic attack but its still vulnerable to the rich getting richer and poor getting poorer problem. That's where the features and alts are interesting, one possible function of Bitcoin is contracts for the transfer of real world assets which sidesteps its value altogether and if bitcoin as a currency becomes too centralised in the hands of a small number of people its credibility suffers and therefore so does its value and that value will be transferred to whatever alts gain trust. Anyway, off topic and there's a lot of different views on it. Long live Bitcoin indeed

Personally, at the moment, I see this as an over-played problem of the poor getting poorer... b/c anyone can generate some savings into BTC.. and if they can hold onto their savings.. then there is decent potential for BTC holding the value... at this moment, we cannot be sure about BTC's value in 20 years... for example putting $5000 into a kids college fund... and then waiting to see what the value is in 20 years.

Quote from: stan.distortion on April 02, 2014, 10:20:00 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 10:15:17 PM

Quote from: stan.distortion on April 02, 2014, 10:01:58 PM

Hello, good to see your in it for the right reasons

Its for everyone and that includes assholes, the systems strong enough to face off any realistic attack but its still vulnerable to the rich getting richer and poor getting poorer problem. That's where the features and alts are interesting, one possible function of Bitcoin is contracts for the transfer of real world assets which sidesteps its value altogether and if bitcoin as a currency becomes too centralised in the hands of a small number of people its credibility suffers and therefore so does its value and that value will be transferred to whatever alts gain trust. Anyway, off topic and there's a lot of different views on it. Long live Bitcoin indeed

Personally, at the moment, I see this as an over-played problem of the poor getting poorer... b/c anyone can generate some savings into BTC.. and if they can hold onto their savings.. then there is decent potential for BTC holding the value... at this moment, we cannot be sure about BTC's value in 20 years... for example putting $5000 into a kids college fund... and then waiting to see what the value is in 20 years

True, its a classic problem with fixed supply currencies though, some of the stories from the industrial revolution are horrifying. It's probably a long way away but still worth considering, imho by the time it would be a major issue the importance of money in lives will be significantly reduced but there's no guarantee of that.

I don't mean to be argumentative, but I am having trouble understanding the point exactly... ... I mean compared with the current system in which the bankers get free money.... ...

Does it really matter if there is a small number of people with BTC who are distributing BTC to others who want it... b/c once a person has bitcoin or earns bitcoin or saves bitcoin, then the question will be if the person can allocate a percentage of that for savings and then whether that BTC that is saved is going to hold its value. I believe a lot has to happen between now and such a future, but I continue to believe that the less important question regards the early adopters as compared with the ability to save and then to have a savings appreciate.

Quote from: stan.distortion on April 02, 2014, 10:38:34 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 10:28:47 PM

...
I don't mean to be argumentative, but I am having trouble understanding the point exactly... ... I mean compared with the current system in which the bankers get free money.... ...

Does it really matter if there is a small number of people with BTC who are distributing BTC to others who want it... b/c once a person has bitcoin or earns bitcoin or saves bitcoin, then the question will be if the person can allocate a percentage of that for savings and then whether that BTC that is saved is going to hold its value. I believe a lot has to happen between now and such a future, but I continue to believe that the less important question regards the early adopters as compared with the ability to save and then to have a savings appreciate.

Yes, whether it can function as a safe store of value is the main issue for it to function as a monetary system. I think the main point there is what can it buy, that's what gives fiat currencies a real world value and if bitcoin ever reaches the point where it can be traded for oil then its made it, ie. the petrodollar (or other energy and commodities, hopefully renewable first and foremost).

I do see distribution as a problem though, an awful lot of trading seems to be intent on holding the price down while increasing holdings and the more coins someone has the more power they have in that situation. I don't think that situation can improve while we use conventional exchanges but eventually the exchanges should empty to the point where they're no longer able to hold a stable value and the price will need to be decided by other means (no idea what).

I agree with you about the need to establish prices outside of exchanges - or at least in some kind of manner that is more difficult to manipulate..... .... and that way the BTC price would reflect overall demand and adoption better... This may improve with large adoption and larger market cap.. lets say if the market cap was 1 trillion or more... but we even know that gold prices are manipulated. and that gold is 7 trillion market cap.

Quote from: gotmilk_ on April 02, 2014, 11:04:43 PM

Everyone expect china will dump more despite we sow that only 3party deposits are baned (what we should get over already in december)... It can happen that we will actually go up Wink

Edit: This week numbers from Second Market can be very big... Grin

(or not)

This whole matter remains extremely confusing to me. I thought the December 2013 disclosure of the news was that banks could NOT deal directly with exchanges concerning bitcoin but 3rd parties could. And, this was supposedly effective February 1. However, the later clarifications is to take away the 3rd party options to put fiat into exchanges through 3rd parties ... so that makes it unclear about the chinese options to get fiat into the btc exchanges... The matter still has NOT been clarified exactly b/c BTCChina and Huobi have NOT announced that they are affected.

Am I missing something?

Quote from: stan.distortion on April 02, 2014, 11:05:55 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 02, 2014, 10:56:55 PM

...
I agree with you about the need to establish prices outside of exchanges - or at least in some kind of manner that is more difficult to manipulate..... .... and that way the BTC price would reflect overall demand and adoption better... This may improve with large adoption and larger market cap.. lets say if the market cap was 1 trillion or more... but we even know that gold prices are manipulated. and that gold is 7 trillion market cap.

I'm not sure a high market cap would help as the more mainstream it gets the less reason there is to have it on an exchange unless exchanges can guarantee security equal to a paper wallet but that's more or less the same situation as gold and gold exchanges worked ok for centuries. I'm watching Open Transactions closely, it has a lot of potential and might could be an improvement on exchanges but its a long time in development.

WE may be talking about the same thing or maybe in different languages; however, I though that various projects such as master coin and colored coins and maybe Nxt, were supposed to be mechanisms that are being built in order that we do NOT heed to entrust 3rd parties... anyhow, maybe those kinds of entities will help to establish price in a broader way and a NON centralized way and less vulnerable to manipulation.

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 02, 2014, 11:14:58 PM

Quote from: edwardspitz on April 02, 2014, 11:12:15 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 02, 2014, 11:01:30 PM

Quote from: tarmi on April 02, 2014, 11:00:42 PM

Quote from: tarmi on April 02, 2014, 11:00:24 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 02, 2014, 10:58:05 PM

Quote from: TERA on April 02, 2014, 10:56:28 PM

Can you guys stop feeling entitled to a rally every 9 months and accept for once that bitcoin is in a downtrend and stop calling everything FUD? It's getting old and doesn't help anything.

such FUD

I am HODLING.

confirmed!

confirmed!

hodler ~~unit~~ unite!, and confirm your willingness to HODL

I'm hodling. Expected a drop today, but not quite so big Shocked

keep hodling!

do we have more hodlers?

confirm your willingness to HODL!

I will confirm that I am mostly HOdling... but I cannot resist to buy a few here and there as the price gets lower... part of the reason for the buying is that i cannot tell if the price is going to go lower or not.. .so I want to keep buying.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 02, 2014, 11:23:10 PM

Quote from: gotmilk_ on April 02, 2014, 11:04:43 PM

Everyone expect china will dump more despite we sow that only 3party deposits are baned (what we should get over already in december)... It can happen that we will actually go up Wink

Actually two exchanges (BTC38 and FXBTC) reported receiving notices from their banks that deposits should be blocked.

Quote from: gotmilk_ on April 02, 2014, 11:04:43 PM

Edit: This week numbers from Second Market can be very big... Grin

(or not)

This thread monitors SecondMarket's Bitcoin Investment Fund purchases:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0
The fund is supposed to buy bitcoins only if and when other people choose to invest in them. (You buy 10 SMBIT shares, they buy 1 BTC for you and keep it safe. After some years they may allow you to liquidate: you return the shares, they sell 1 BTC for you and give you the money, minus fees.)

OK so now we are NO longer talking about 3rd parties but we are talking about banks... we already know that they cannot deal with banks.. that is NOT new.. the only thing that would be new would be if they could NOT accept fiat from 3rd parties.. no? what am I missing?

Quote from: mmitech on April 02, 2014, 11:36:12 PM

Quote from: fonzie on April 02, 2014, 11:34:28 PM

Confirmed!

Will the price get lower the higher i get?

try it out and let us know about the results Cheesy

Knock yourself out!!!! Break a leg!!!

Quote from: aminorex on April 03, 2014, 12:52:26 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 03, 2014, 12:50:45 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 03, 2014, 12:48:50 AM

if you already have CNY on the exchange then arbitrage is possible.

Then arbitrage potential must be limited, because the loop is closed.

if you just walk in to the exchange with cash in hand, you can load up all you want.

if you have $100 million in dirty money in China you need to move, your lucky day has just ARRIVED

I was also wondering a good use for the Bitcoin ATMs... and this may be one of those good uses, no?

Quote from: gotmilk_ on April 03, 2014, 01:49:29 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 01:42:57 AM

OK so now we are NO longer talking about 3rd parties but we are talking about banks... we already know that they cannot deal with banks.. that is NOT new.. the only thing that would be new would be if they could NOT accept fiat from 3rd parties.. no? what am I missing?

From coindesk:
OKCoin revealed via its website that it had been contacted by one of its third-party payment processors, and that as a result, it will stop servicing deposits via prepaid card. Debit cards and yuan withdrawals, however, are not affected.

+ huobi and btcchina still didn't get anything (or they are lying)....

Doesnt that really seem to be that these processors are merely attempting to disallow payment processing means that are connected with banks, and to suggest that there are still some other avenues available to process payments. In other words, NOT really any change from what had been expected in December 2013... only an implementation communication.that communicates the same news that had previously been disclosed.

Quote from: aminorex on April 03, 2014, 02:18:45 AM

new lows. china appears to be decoupling. $32 spread now.

This whole matter of exchanges setting BTC prices seems to be rigged b/c buyers have a disincentive to keep money on the exchanges... (even more after the GOX fiasco) and manipulators can stack the deck to push down the prices on the exchanges (b/c there is hardly any money on exchanges) and then buy more BTC off of the exchanges after they have successfully pushed BTC price down on the exchanges.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 02:29:42 AM

I think there are only two likely possibilities at this point: price is either going to go a lot lower or it's going to stay low for a long time. I am a permabull no longer. Long term bull, yes, but the time frame is months or years. This could very well be a 2011 scenario.

Sure, whales could turn it around, but retail speculators don't have enough cash left and volume is too low for a rational call of a trend reversal. The double whammy of Gox and China compounded each other. This would be a great time to buy if small investors understood the technology and acted rationally, but I see no evidence that this is the case.

There may be an infinite supply of fiat, but I don't have it. I doubt any of you do either. Price will have to retreat to a point where it becomes attractive to new investors ot stay where it's at long enough to build a new base.

That is a level of pessimism that I have NOT seen from you in recent posts... so BLOOD must really be in the streets.... BUY, BUY, BUY..

Quote from: mah87 on April 03, 2014, 02:37:12 AM

Quote from: silverfuture on April 03, 2014, 02:35:44 AM

upswing to about 460 incoming over next couple of hours.

I rather bet on a nice upswing to 350

But would you put any money on it?

I bet that there would be a lot of takers to bet you that we will see $460 before we see $350?

You would NOT take such a bet b/c you do NOT even believe it.

Quote from: barbs on April 03, 2014, 02:52:10 AM

to HODL or not to HODL: THAT IS THE QUESTION

What's the other options... this is NOT a binary issue.... he hehe.. at least NOT for this CAT

Quote from: mah87 on April 03, 2014, 02:59:27 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 02:57:01 AM

Quote from: mah87 on April 03, 2014, 02:37:12 AM

Quote from: silverfuture on April 03, 2014, 02:35:44 AM

upswing to about 460 incoming over next couple of hours.

I rather bet on a nice upswing to 350

But would you put any money on it?

I bet that there would be a lot of takers to bet you that we will see $460 before we see $350?

You would NOT take such a bet b/c you do NOT even believe it.

Well it's been 6weeeks I'm saying we're going to 400$ and I hear "blablabal oyu troll OMG such troll ignoreignore etc.."

Well here we are so I'll wait and buy at 350

So what? I also have NOT seen $400 yet on bitstamp.. .low is $418.34... so far... what are you measuring... anything that meets your theory. ... .. woudl you take a bet or not? You are betting on $350 and acting as if $350 is coming soon... and you are denigrating discussions of $460... Put your money on your assertion(s).

Quote from: mah87 on April 03, 2014, 03:00:18 AM

Quote from: Peter R on April 03, 2014, 02:57:48 AM

I believe I am not alone.

you are one of the last permabull

there are a lot of permabulls or something close to a permabull in this thread.. and label or NOT I agree with Peter R's statement.. I am sure a lot of others agree with Peter R's statement, also... so lots of permabulls.. if that is the right term for his statement... Just because the forum is littered with naysayers and trolls during a downswing in prices, does NOT mean that bull sentiment does NOT remain ...

Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on April 03, 2014, 04:43:39 AM

Lets face it guys we're a bit fucked. The bottom line is that all money in Bitcoin eventually needs to move through the exchanges and people aren't willing to trust the exchanges. So all that BTC thats gone may affect the price upwards in the uber long term due to lack of supply, but if there isn't a safe way to express demand, supply matters not. We'll recover but this might be another 2 year ride (no guarantees, but it seems like a real possibility). I sat through one I can sit through another though, I guess.

I think that you are correct that currently the exchanges have a disproportionate affect on price; however, I doubt that means that we are fucked.... even a bit... though short-term there seems to be too much manipulation on the exchanges, I am of the sense that solutions are going to develop including some of the decentralized exchange ideas that are already under development... like mastercoin and color coin and nxt..

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 05:52:59 AM

Possibilities for bitcoin going to zero: a flaw in the code is found and exploited. Something on the mining end. Nuclear war, asteroids, global ebola pandemic, something on the mining end, sha256 getting cracked, etc. Probability of any of these things happening <0.1%.

Possibilities for Bitcoin going below $10: Satoshi's stash getting dumped on the market, outright criminal ban on owning bitcoin in several Western countries, Bitstamp and at least one other major exchange getting hacked to the point of insolvency, FBI coins AND Bitcoin investment Trust AND Winklevoss stash all liquidated, or >ten major early adopter whales liquidating their entire stashes. probability of any of these things happening: <1%

Possibility of bitcoin retreating to April 2013 high of $266: $400 support doesn't hold when all Chinese exchanges stop taking deposits, China bans bitcoin ownership and trading altogether, U.S. stockmarket crash/correction that dries up Silicone Valley money, Coinbase folds, etc. Probability: ~40%

Possibility of trend reversal without whales: 1%. with whales: ~40%

Possibility that Bitcoin goes to $10,000 this year: hyperinflation in the U.S. Dollar, major currency or banking crisis in a large economy with Bitcoin as a major player in evading capital controls or inflation hedging, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or other major tech company fully embraces bitcoin, investing billions. Probability: ~5%.

Possibility of spontaneous mass adoption this year with no major media campaign or sea change in media coverage: zero. Next year, maybe. Movements need leaders.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

Great breakdown, even though I do NOT agree with a few of your numbers, but that is quibbling... b/c your outline helps consideration of the matter.

Regarding your stash... what's your average BTC buy-in price? Probably in the $300s? or less? Mine is mid-$600s with a stash of only 49-ish.... I have other investments as well.. but I am anticipating continuing to buy on a regular basis to slowly increase my stash.. if BTC price goes down, my stash will go up more...

Usually, I am NOT too lucky with trades, but having lucky trades brings up the quantity of BTC and brings down the average cost per BTC... .. but like I said my track record is NOT too great in the trading arena... so I have to rely more on HODL and attempted strategic buying.

Quote from: Jeezy911 on April 03, 2014, 05:59:50 AM

Quote from: Hypnoise on April 03, 2014, 05:53:35 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 02, 2014, 11:21:21 PM

I'm only 15% long and I feel despair. I feel despair over the short that I covered at 490. I cannot even imagine the people who went all in, leveraged, or sold their house.

after 490 I sold 5 times. Of course it is crazy selling on lower price then you buy, but in such down trend it make sense as your next buy still better.

selling lower than bought. I never understood this concept. I call it losing money.

SELL lower than you had bought, but then buy back in lower than you sold.. I believe that is the point in which money is made... and brings down your price per BTC..

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 03, 2014, 06:23:03 AM

Quote from: Dr. LY on April 03, 2014, 06:07:41 AM

If we break $400, we're poo'd.

But if China news is not as bad as feared, and/or news comes out and $400 holds...I'd feel good about chances to reverse the trend.

So basically people are panic selling because of a rumour of an event that may take the price down which results in the price going down and when it goes below a certain point the panic sellers will panic sell because the price went down too much. And what do you do when the price goes down a lot? You make sure it goes down even more.
Sounds like a smart group of people.

I am feeling pretty optimistic and fairly confident that we are NOT going to go below $400, absent some fairly major additional negative news. BUT... what the fuck do I know.. just going based on an overall hunch, more or less like others.. though I am NO whale.. and whales have more ability to affect this than us minnows (as mentioned by BillyJoeAllen)

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 03, 2014, 06:45:25 AM

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

YES>>> YOU are correct .. worthless, b/c you are NOT willing to wager anything on that CRAP. Shows a lack of confidence and in inclination for FUD

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 07:06:53 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 03, 2014, 06:45:25 AM

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

Yes the $400 wall is likely to be tested to see if it's fake, real or there's hidden support we can't see. This would be a huge opportunity for a billionaire to accumulate a large position without slippage, but there may not be one or he's lurking in the depths. Retreat to $400 and hold the line, people. $401 if you want to make sure you get all your coins back. Sell any bounce and build that fucking wall. It's going to be a battle and we need every man we can get. If it breaches, the next stop is $266 and the next ATH will be delayed by months. 90% probability we'll drop to at least $401 at least once before trend reversal. 50% chance we'll hit $400 and 50% chance we'll go lower.

Maybe I need a definition of terms; however, my understanding is that a billionaire does NOT gain a position by selling into a buy wall but instead by buying into a sell wall. So, I must be missing something, here.

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on April 03, 2014, 07:30:08 AM

this is a very very dangerous market to be trading ... the latent demand is everywhere like an abundance of ions in the air before a thunderstorm, it could materialise a deluge from seemingly nowhere.

the world is primed for a new monetary medium, that is what has driven bitcoin this far already. Those who are dismissive of bitcoin as a super bubble are lost because they have no chart to compare. We have never seen a collectible become monetised into a global medium of exchange, there are no charts to compare it with.

You trade this beast at your peril. It is a binary outcome. You're either in or out. For sure traders are gonna get burnt, badly.

Well said, and I believe that is the main reason that I am nearly terrified, if that's NOT too much of an exaggeration, to sleep in fiat... Wink

Quote from: dreamspark on April 03, 2014, 08:03:38 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 07:43:39 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 05:52:59 AM

Possibilities for bitcoin going to zero: a flaw in the code is found and exploited. Something on the mining end. Nuclear war, asteroids, global ebola pandemic, something on the mining end, sha256 getting cracked, etc. Probability of any of these things happening <0.1%.

Possibilities for Bitcoin going below $10: Satoshi's stash getting dumped on the market, outright criminal ban on owning bitcoin in several Western countries, Bitstamp and at least one other major exchange getting hacked to the point of insolvency, FBI coins AND Bitcoin investment Trust AND Winklevoss stash all liquidated, or >ten major early adopter whales liquidating their entire stashes. probability of any of these things happening: <1%

Possibility of bitcoin retreating to April 2013 high of $266: $400 support doesn't hold when all Chinese exchanges stop taking deposits, China bans bitcoin ownership and trading altogether, U.S. stockmarket crash/correction that dries up Silicone Valley money, Coinbase folds, etc. Probability: ~40%

Possibility of trend reversal without whales: 1%. with whales: ~40%

Possibility that Bitcoin goes to $10,000 this year: hyperinflation in the U.S. Dollar, major currency or banking crisis in a large economy with Bitcoin as a major player in evading capital controls or inflation hedging, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or other major tech company fully embraces bitcoin, investing billions. Probability: ~5%.

Possibility of spontaneous mass adoption this year with no major media campaign or sea change in media coverage: zero. Next year, maybe. Movements need leaders.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

Great breakdown, even though I do NOT agree with a few of your numbers, but that is quibbling... b/c your outline helps consideration of the matter.

Regarding your stash... what's your average BTC buy-in price? Probably in the $300s? or less? Mine is mid-$600s with a stash of only 49-ish.... I have other investments as well.. but I am anticipating continuing to buy on a regular basis to slowly increase my stash.. if BTC price goes down, my stash will go up more...

Usually, I am NOT too lucky with trades, but having lucky trades brings up the quantity of BTC and brings down the average cost per BTC... .. but like I said my track record is NOT too great in the trading arena... so I have to rely more on HODL and attempted strategic buying.

His average buy in will be in single digits maybe mid double digits as are a lot of the people who have been around for a while. Hell I only started buying in summer 2013 but with a bit of trading and selling a nice chunk over $1000 even my average buy in is double digits. There are many here that will have taken out their original investment and be sitting in free coins. This is obvious by the way people speak. Its obvious when someone is sitting on a $30,000 investment that is currently worth closer to $20,000. The panic is obvious as they keep saying they're buying on the way down and they do not see it going any lower. Although I would like to see a rise again Im more than happy for the blood in the streets and the chance to pick up some really cheap BTC again. Its mainly noobs and dreamers who bought BTC anywhere near $1200 and most will have sold on the way down. The upside then is clear and obvious but I do feel a bloodbath will ensue in the meantime.

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 03, 2014, 08:09:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 07:59:08 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 03, 2014, 06:45:25 AM

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

YES>>> YOU are correct .. worthless, b/c you are NOT willing to wager anything on that CRAP. Shows a lack of confidence and in inclination for FUD

Yeah, i'm just a fud spreading bear who wants Bitcoin to go down.

I kind of noticed that you have NOT been that subtle about it... but on the positive have NOT seen you get too viscous about your FUD.. and I suppose the closest that I have seen is your fairly incomprehensible announcement that you are going to put someone on ignore b/c you do NOT appreciate their logic or their failure to answer your inquiry.... .. a little irritating in its own entertaining way... I cannot really take you too serious and your bird dog does give me a vision in that respect. Cheesy

Quote from: dreamspark on April 03, 2014, 08:31:30 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on April 03, 2014, 08:22:53 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 03, 2014, 08:16:39 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on April 03, 2014, 08:14:57 AM

My overall prediction for the next 48 hours is a test close to $400, a lot will hinge on whether or not the support around $400 dries up or not. I don't think it will so some serious selling will have to occur to break through that. At this point I think its important to ask how far the downside really goes. If you think that we may break $400 and would rebuy at $375 is that worth the risk or is that more likely then a short term bounce to $570 ish? I think a short term bounce is more likely so would rather take profit on a long than risk being left behind on an uncertain short.

I think Houbi is going to test 2100 soon. They are the only exchange that hasnt "announced" - am I correct?

2100 will drag the other markets near or to 400.

I was thinking 2100'ish too, but last time we had like tons more volume and tons more of a momentum. I would be surprised that just the Huobi announcement would be enough to get us there, but i am not ruling it out.

Also I think if Huobi hits 2100 then without a doubt we are going below $400, no questions asked.

2100 surely seems like a long way off... b/c we are currently at 2550 and it was down to a low of 2438 a couple of hours ago..

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 03, 2014, 08:35:00 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 08:32:00 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 03, 2014, 08:09:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 07:59:08 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 03, 2014, 06:45:25 AM

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

YES>>> YOU are correct .. worthless, b/c you are NOT willing to wager anything on that CRAP. Shows a lack of confidence and in inclination for FUD

Yeah, i'm just a fud spreading bear who wants Bitcoin to go down.

I kind of noticed that you have NOT been that subtle about it... but on the positive have NOT seen you get too viscous about your FUD.. and I suppose the closest that I have seen is your fairly incomprehensible announcement that you are going to put someone on ignore b/c you do NOT appreciate their logic or their failure to answer your inquiry.... .. a little irritating in its own entertaining way... I cannot really take you too serious and your bird dog does give me a vision in that respect. Cheesy

Why would i want to spread fud you idiot! I don't trade. I want Bitcoin to go one direction and that is up.
Welcome to my ignore list.

That comment is hilarious... when you think about it.... a dog-bird with a temper tantrum. Cry

Quote from: bangersdad on April 03, 2014, 08:35:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 08:26:22 AM

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?! Cheesy

hindsight is 20/20...

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation.

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

Quote from: Blitz on April 03, 2014, 08:36:43 AM

It always feels like I read every one of ShroomKit's posts sometime before.

Sheep, idiots, panic-selling, ignore list.

I have only seen ignore list about three times, and one of them was me, and each time it makes nearly no sense that he placed someone on an ignore list that had been attempting to be responsive to him. Anyhow, to be quasi-positive about it, at least his posts are fairly short, so they are NOT too time consuming to get the gist of the FUD...

Quote from: magicmexican on April 03, 2014, 09:00:31 AM

yawn another small bulltrap, this is getting old

It is like a rewind... to take another hit at the attempt to go down bit.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 09:01:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 08:50:14 AM

Quote from: bangersdad on April 03, 2014, 08:35:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 08:26:22 AM

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?! Cheesy

hindsight is 20/20...

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation.

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

How is the direction not clear to you? There is only one chart showing an uptrend now and that's the four year log chart. The odds of a whale hitting "market buy" at this time is infinitesimal unless he wants to see a short squeeze for shits and giggles and wants to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Whale limit orders near $400 are the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

I'm NOT selling at this point. I will buy again at $410 and $400... and I will wait to buy if I am sure that it is going down.

We come to varying conclusions about what to do, and mine seems to be different than yours. I hope you do NOT get left behind if we take off in the upward direction, rather than the downward direction. I'm feeling o.k. either way.

Quote from: bangersdad on April 03, 2014, 09:10:55 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 09:01:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 08:50:14 AM

Quote from: bangersdad on April 03, 2014, 08:35:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 08:26:22 AM

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?! Cheesy

hindsight is 20/20...

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation.

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

How is the direction not clear to you? There is only one chart showing an uptrend now and that's the four year log chart. The odds of a whale hitting "market buy" at this time is infinitesimal unless he wants to see a short squeeze for shits and giggles and wants to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Whale limit orders near $400 are the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

JayJuanGee is still in denial thinking we are gonna get a whale taking us to the moon again....we should see a change of the guard soon in the forum...where alot of the "to the moon brigade" go and nurse their wounds..

YOU appear to be in argument mode. I am NOT in denial.. I just have a strategy, which I believe that I already explained, and my strategy does NOT have to do with any whale, exactly, but instead a lack of confidence that selling is the right strategy, at this point. I am sure that there are various others following similar strategies as me.. Personal situations vary based on risk tolerance and the extent to which they may be diversified and budget and when they got in.. etc etc.. I am happy with my strategy in BTC and my overall investment strategy in life... I am NOT putting all my eggs in BTC, if that is what, in part, you seem to have within your assumption(s) about my investment situation.

So, tell me a little bit about your investment strategy and your financial position and when you got into BTC in order that I can know a bit more regarding your situation and your stake in the BTC arena.

Quote from: TeeBone on April 03, 2014, 09:14:18 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 09:09:50 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 09:01:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 08:50:14 AM

Quote from: bangersdad on April 03, 2014, 08:35:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 08:26:22 AM

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?! Cheesy

hindsight is 20/20...

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation.

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

How is the direction not clear to you? There is only one chart showing an uptrend now and that's the four year log chart. The odds of a whale hitting "market buy" at this time is infinitesimal unless he wants to see a short squeeze for shits and giggles and wants to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Whale limit orders near $400 are the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

I'm NOT selling at this point. I will buy again at $410 and $400... and I will wait to buy if I am sure that it is going down.

We come to varying conclusions about what to do, and mine seems to be different than yours. I hope you do NOT get left behind if we take off in the upward direction, rather than the downward direction. I'm feeling o.k. either way.

That 'dont get left behind' meme is seriously played out, guy. It worked for a whle, only suckers buy into that nowadays.

I'm NOT trying to persuade anyone. I participate in this thread in order to gain insight about my own strategies and to attempt to plan accordingly what would be the best plan forward for me, based on the current market situation and the various probabilities in light of my own holdings, risk aversion and diversification.

Did you want to explain more about your strategy and about your stake in the BTC arena in order that I can get a sense of your reasons for suggesting that I do something other than what I am doing?

Quote from: bangersdad on April 03, 2014, 09:15:13 AM

Cute.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 12:47:31 PM

Guys, nobody would be happier if I am wrong than I would be. It's extremely likely we'll either go sideways for a long time or down. If we go down, $400 support will be tested and may or may not hold. 3600 coins mined per day on top of Chinese arbitragers constantly buying on Huobi, and selling on Stamp. There's simply too much liquidity to soak up without a strategic retreat in price.

It's a great time to buy if you don't mind waiting months or years to see a significant profit, but a rocket ride up past $500 before April 15 is delusional, unless there's possibly a spike that immediately crashes back down. Bitfinex walls keep moving, but the Bitstamp wall is staying solid and immovable at $400.

Your recent solution was that we sell and buy back again at $400 - which seems quite a ridiculous plan... and more ridiculous when we come to realize your ultimate motive in this thread is to get other people to do things that may NOT be in their economic interest, either short or long term... hodl and buy if you can, is a much better strategy.

Quote from: lynn_402 on April 03, 2014, 12:49:51 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 12:47:31 PM

Guys, nobody would be happier if I am wrong than I would be. It's extremely likely we'll either go sideways for a long time or down. If we go down, $400 support will be tested and may or may not hold. 3600 coins mined per day on top of Chinese arbitragers constantly buying on Huobi, and selling on Stamp. There's simply too much liquidity to soak up without a strategic retreat in price.

It's a great time to buy if you don't mind waiting months or years to see a significant profit, but a rocket ride up past $500 before April 15 is delusional, unless there's possibly a spike that immediately crashes back down. Bitfinex walls keep moving, but the Bitstamp wall is staying solid and immovable at $400.

What makes you think the 3600 coins mined everyday end up on exchanges? I'm sure many of these are from miners who believe in the long term potential of Bitcoin, and won't sell at these low prices.

Yeah... maybe less than 1/3 end up on exchanges in any given day... and likely miners will be acting strategically concerning when they will sell... Sure panic sells are possible and selling out of necessity is also possible.

Quote from: gizmoh on April 03, 2014, 01:15:04 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on April 03, 2014, 01:10:11 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 12:47:31 PM

Guys, nobody would be happier if I am wrong than I would be. It's extremely likely we'll either go sideways for a long time or down. If we go down, $400 support will be tested and may or may not hold. 3600 coins mined per day on top of Chinese arbitragers constantly buying on Huobi, and selling on Stamp. There's simply too much liquidity to soak up without a strategic retreat in price.

It's a great time to buy if you don't mind waiting months or years to see a significant profit, but a rocket ride up past $500 before April 15 is delusional, unless there's possibly a spike that immediately crashes back down. Bitfinex walls keep moving, but the Bitstamp wall is staying solid and immovable at $400.

I know opinions change and this isn't a low blow particularly but you really must be taking your forced liquidation badly. Two days ago it was choo choo and now your saying that anyone buying coins here would have to wait years for a profit.

What's changed in a day or so?

He SODL, the most daring of bulls capitulated. that's a contrarian indicator, bullish Grin

He's FUCKED.... and he has been trying to convince the rest of us to sell too, in order to bring the prices down... ridiculous... and FUCK DAT...... Maybe good if he cuts his losses and buy back into BTC at $435, if we happen to dip back down there again.... otherwise may miss the choo choo rocket

Quote from: Walsoraj on April 03, 2014, 02:57:41 PM

Quote from: podyx on April 03, 2014, 02:53:58 PM

This has been a good strategy for months now.

Agreed... a good strategy in recent months... however, these guys who are waiting never pull the trigger b/c they are always waiting for a better price... and when the price finally does get to a good low level, then they are scared shitless that the price is going to go lower..

Quote from: roslinpl on April 03, 2014, 03:03:35 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on April 03, 2014, 03:01:31 PM

Anyone else getting bored of $430 ?

I am. I even think it would be better at 300 $ :-)

slowly back to $666... Used to be that we thought $666 was low... now.. we are floating at 444, which is half of 888... whatever Huh

Quote from: ChrisML on April 03, 2014, 03:07:40 PM

Quote from: roslinpl on April 03, 2014, 03:03:35 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on April 03, 2014, 03:01:31 PM

Anyone else getting bored of $430 ?

I am. I even think it would be better at 300 $ :-)

Once again, someone hoping that BTC will crash to a low $300 should stick to alt coins. Go buy some Auroracoins.

And no, i've not been shorting. I've been Hodling from $700 and from $420.

Is your buy in price $700?

Quote from: oda.krell on April 03, 2014, 03:11:40 PM

Quote from: ChrisML on April 03, 2014, 03:07:40 PM

Quote from: roslinpl on April 03, 2014, 03:03:35 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on April 03, 2014, 03:01:31 PM

Anyone else getting bored of $430 ?

I am. I even think it would be better at 300 $ :-)

Once again, someone hoping that BTC will crash to a low $300 should stick to alt coins. Go buy some Auroracoins.

And no, i've not been shorting. I've been Hodling from $700 and from $420.

This seriously puzzles me. Why should those who think, say, 300 is a likely target go and "stick to alt coins"? Wouldn't you rather they start buying at 300, to prevent price falling even further?

Yeah, maybe we need to start thinking in milibits.. at some time soon? But then people may think BTC is too cheap at 44 cents?

Quote from: KFR on April 03, 2014, 03:29:30 PM

Bobby Lee != Charles Lee

I thought that they were brothers or something.. I thought that Charles Lee had said that Bobby Lee was his brother, no?

EDIT::::: NEVER MIND>>>> already answered by several others that they are brothers..

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 03, 2014, 04:41:14 PM

Quote from: keithers on April 03, 2014, 04:38:22 PM

slight trend reversal this morning...glad to see there is a little growing buy support today

Haven't you heard? It's a bull trap. The bears on this forum confirmed it.

Yes, And we met $460 in the same 12 hours, much before your predicted $350 in 12 hours.... who would have thunk?

Probably you would have thunk b/c you were too chicken shit to take a bet on the prospect of your own prediction.

Quote from: lynn_402 on April 03, 2014, 07:17:25 PM

Quote from: fonzie on April 03, 2014, 07:16:34 PM

Quote from: lynn_402 on April 03, 2014, 07:14:47 PM

Quote from: fonzie on April 03, 2014, 07:12:38 PM

If they don´t matter than why do you need them to pump up the price for you?

We don't need them, just saying that there's no sense for them to crash the price two weeks before deadline.

When exactly do you expect them to crash the price? 23:59:59 @ April 14th.
Will the price go up until then?

They won't be able to as Bitcoin will have gained enough momentum in the meantime.

I find it very strange when people start saying that China does NOT matter and Mt. Gox does NOT matter and that we want to "decouple" from these. Surely, that is too black and white thinking, and all of these factors matter.

Some factors get more weight than other factors in the short-term or in the long term,and we cannot completely "decouple" from various realities. Surely, bitcoin will move forward and prosper, but also the movement forward will be delayed and hampered by various people or entities that attempt to manipulate it or profit from it or defraud people. The public impression is also affected by these negative aspects... which will delay us in getting to the train station that will take us to the rocket launch pad.. and in my thinking these many factors matter, and sometimes, these many factors need to be dealt with before we can move to the next level.

Quote from: Aki4real on April 03, 2014, 08:46:49 PM

Quote from: fonzie on April 03, 2014, 08:27:51 PM

Quote from: Aki4real on April 03, 2014, 08:26:48 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 03, 2014, 08:24:32 PM

Quote from: phatsphere on April 03, 2014, 08:14:25 PM

I don't get it. why the bullishness?

the triangle is still fine and all that funny cheering needs yet another bear-hammer.

triangles generally break out in the direction they came. why do you think it's going to break down? the bottom has been tested, and now it has bounced. it could be back up to 600 in a flash.

In a flash is somewhat too optimistic imo

my 2 cents:

I am surprised all those bears could not reach/break ~~800 700 600 500~~400 steadily yet..
Somewhat amazed by this bullish support or weak bearish power..

I have heard that somewhere before...

Please dont edit quotes if they are not your own,.. thank you.

Anyway I have never talked about those numbers, all I care about is the 400 (for me another chance to jump in with some more coins).

I expected it to break already,.. but these bears are just too weak ( at the moment )

Aki4Real :

Hopefully, you ARE ALREADY BUYING ON AN ONGOING BASIS and NOT waiting for some kind of "cheap coinz" break through? b/c in the end, there may NOT be that much difference between buying BTC at $400 or at $450.. even though of course, each of us would like to buy BTC at the lowest price possible... .YET, in the end, in BTC land, we do NOT know for sure where the price is gonna go... .even though there are quite a few smug predictions going both wayz.

Here’s my BTC buy increments over the last two month.

590.70
668.80
595.00
606.16
592.37
569.61
537.20
576.00
545.55
524.00

484.02
462.61
462.99
455.56
408.64

520.00
580.00
678.85
653.00
610.00
623.50
604.08
585.50
550.19
581.93
566.12
517.03

485.92
525.48
482.53
452.70
446.44
476.00
439.82
428.68
418.60

Even though, at the moment, BTC price seems to be pretty decent (and low / cheap ☺ ), I am about tapped out on buying. Nonetheless, I would like to buy some more, if the price were to dip into the below $430 range. Of course, if we know for sure that BTC prices are going to dip lower than $430, then I would wait to buy at the lower price.

It seems to me that nothing is for sure in BTC land. ☺ Yet I am gambling that in the next couple of years, we will be up.. - hopefully up at least higher than my mutual funds... which I expect to be about 12% higher (6% per year on average) than my investment amount.

Quote from: porcupine87 on April 03, 2014, 09:15:01 PM

On stamp there are 115.98btc order all down the order book. In intervalls of 5$, so 69. I think this is one guy and he is biding for around 8000btc. Can somebody explain this to me.Why does he use always the same amount. So that people know that it is from one guy?

Maybe for accounting purposes... easier to keep track.. ? I am with you that on the face it would seem better to disguise it.. but maybe it is too much work to attempt such disguising and then to keep track.. and also maybe it is NOT his/her own money?

Quote from: Aki4real on April 03, 2014, 09:56:50 PM

Thanks for your elaborate post, nice to see you have chosen to buy at a lot of different prices.
It seems your average buy price is not too high.

In that post, I only provided my buys for the last two months (February and March).

In about mid-November 2013, I was involved in a fairly informative discussion about BTC, in which the other person was bragging about his BTC return rates, and suggesting that I may need it as a hedge against the dollar.

I agreed with him that I was too overly invested in the dollar, and I reminded him that past performance of the BTC asset did NOT guarantee future results. He sounded a bit naive in his various views of the world including his expectations specifically regarding the direction of BTC; however, his enthusiasm and his various technical knowledge of the subject got me to agree that I would research into the matter. I believe that he had bought in around $30 or something like that.

Anyhow, he triggered my interest to research into BTC b/c I do NOT like to jump into anything too quickly before I kind of have some ideas about it.... and by the time I was getting more informed the price was skyrocketting. Accordingly, I began my investment at about $1200. I wanted to get some skin in the game, but I remained skeptical about putting in too much money at that price point.

So, currently, my average price point is about $644 per BTC (including various transaction fees).

Quote from: Aki4real on April 03, 2014, 09:56:50 PM

I have not been buying continously, because I do not want to pass the point where I am overdedicated into BTC (where I would lose sleep over its price dropping or rising).

BTC is NOT my only investment, either. I have a variety of stock index funds and then I have some quasi-passive income from business (sometimes NOT as passive as I would prefer).

We may be of a fairly similar philosophy regarding NOT wanting to preoccupy ourselves too much with our investment(s). Since I got into BTC after a fairly major bull run, that timing has caused me to be a lot more attentive to BTC prices and issues than I would have been if I would have entered at a different time.

There is a sort of tension and balancing that has existed throughout my investment into BTC, and that is the desire to get some skin in the game, and the desire to attempt to buy at the lowest price (however, I did NOT want to wait around to buy, in the event that BTC prices were to move up to some next level and were not to return to current prices). Accordingly, I continued to buy with this in mind. Surely, if I had had a fairly high level of confidence that BTC prices would lower to any specific price point, then I would have waited for that price lowest price point and bought a higher portion of my BTC at that lower price point.

Quote from: Aki4real on April 03, 2014, 09:56:50 PM

My funds are allocated in different currencies (not only Crypto, though I believe this is the future).

I have NOT really invested into any currencies, and only a few of the alt crypto currencies in very small levels (less than 5% of my total crypto currency portfolio is in alt cryptos)

Quote from: Aki4real on April 03, 2014, 09:56:50 PM

To protect myself from my itchy triggerfinger buying more BTC I've set my next buy at 400 or below, discipline makes or breaks good trades

YES. I do the same about setting a price point to buy, and maybe it would be better to have a larger spread. Currently, I am thinking below $430 is my next buy price point; however, maybe I would still feel comfortable to set that buy price point at $420? I do allow my buy price point to fluctuate somewhat with the passage of time - maybe NOT the greatest strategy in the world, but allows me to accumulate BTC, which is part of my goal (I'm at about 49BTC, currently - that's including the floating value of my alts).

Quote from: windjc on April 03, 2014, 10:44:06 PM

Quote from: fonzie on April 03, 2014, 10:36:37 PM

Quote from: windjc on April 03, 2014, 10:33:30 PM

Quote from: fonzie on April 03, 2014, 10:03:03 PM

Never forget:

Bitstamp:

Whole bid volume
11,146,031.76 USD

Ratio
1 : 2.83

Bitfinex:

Total sum of active swaps
USD 15,794,084.87 USD

Do you have buy orders set with your shorts Fonzie or do you have an number you are waiting for?

I´m long term shorting.

25% will be closed @360
25% " @310
25% " @250
25% " @200

stop loss for my shorts is actually @ 519

I have my shorts scattered from 426 - 406 at $2 intervals. If figured the market would peck away from $425-$400 and swing back up a few times. So the market closed out 5 of my 10 positions last night. Before I went to bed, I then open 3 more shorts at each of the 3 Fib retracement levels. I woke up, two were hit, one missed by a $1.

So its rinse and repeat for me until we get to 405ish - where I expect we will have a final battle. I'll decide where to go from there.

That makes more sense that your numbers would be more reasonable with phased in reassessments, otherwise, seems like pie in the sky aspirations.

Quote from: chessnut on April 03, 2014, 10:50:27 PM

Quote from: fonzie on April 03, 2014, 10:36:37 PM

stop loss for my shorts is actually @ 519

Thats not what I'd call long term shorting. 519 will be too easy to break.

I would put the odds quite a bit greater that we would hit $519 before we would hit $399. I do NOT really know a lot about lines and such, and just predicting from a sort of amateur feeling.

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 03, 2014, 10:50:31 PM

Quote from: Gatekeeper on April 03, 2014, 10:40:23 PM

i think a good few people need to read this
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2241p6/china_april_15th_summary_some_facts_between_lots/

very good summary
we've been getting it in bits and pieces as the news's came in
some traders here have reported they are not willing to trade with such uncertainty in the air, so i think we have pretty much priced out china now.

DOES NOT appear to me that China is out. It appears that there remain various avenues to keep their BTC trades going, so does NOT really seem that currently we have many more reasons for BTC prices to be continuing to fall.

Are we just experiencing continued sentiments of uncertainty to see how these various restriction implementations play out through April 15 to see if there are any more surprises related to the application and implementation of these various restrictions?

I still blame downward BTC price pressures in part on the FUD being a tool of manipulation in an atmosphere where BTC is easy to put on the exchanges to force selling and then buying taking place off of the exchanges with the deflated prices.... rinse and repeat... whales purposefully lose money on exchanges in order to be able to buy cheaper outside of exchanges.

Quote from: fonzie on April 04, 2014, 12:03:27 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 11:59:23 PM

I still blame downward BTC price pressures in part on the FUD being a tool of manipulation in an atmosphere where BTC is easy to put on the exchanges to force selling and then buying taking place off of the exchanges with the deflated prices.... rinse and repeat... whales purposefully lose money on exchanges in order to be able to buy cheaper outside of exchanges.

Do you have any data to prove this assumption or are you just pulling it out of your ass?
Do you also assume that lizards have control over the government?

Cheesy

(no offense)

I'm describing my operative theory of an ongoing dynamic..... which is NOT merely spouting out some random thoughts or disinformation.. as some others may do....

I cannot prove who the various whales are that are pushing BTC prices downward... and that is part of the advantage of whales being able to do such without disclosure.. if they so desire... .

I know that there are very big incentives for whales to push BTC prices downward, prices come from exchanges... and also there has been considerable movement of money and BTC off of exchanges after GOX and after SR2. ... which makes it easier to push down prices with less capital.

MY thinking about whale dynamics until I am persuaded otherwise... Do you have a better theory that makes any sense in real world thinking? I realize that I am maybe giving you too much of an opening by both acknowledging your response to me and by going further and asking you a question. Maybe there is an outside chance that you will surprise me with some meaningful response?

Quote from: fonzie on April 04, 2014, 12:40:38 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 04, 2014, 12:25:08 AM

Quote from: fonzie on April 04, 2014, 12:03:27 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 11:59:23 PM

I still blame downward BTC price pressures in part on the FUD being a tool of manipulation in an atmosphere where BTC is easy to put on the exchanges to force selling and then buying taking place off of the exchanges with the deflated prices.... rinse and repeat... whales purposefully lose money on exchanges in order to be able to buy cheaper outside of exchanges.

Do you have any data to prove this assumption or are you just pulling it out of your ass?
Do you also assume that lizards have control over the government?

Cheesy

(no offense)

I'm describing my operative theory of an ongoing dynamic..... which is NOT merely spouting out some random thoughts or disinformation.. as some others may do....

I cannot prove who the various whales are that are pushing BTC prices downward... and that is part of the advantage of whales being able to do such without disclosure.. if they so desire... .

I know that there are very big incentives for whales to push BTC prices downward, prices come from exchanges... and also there has been considerable movement of money and BTC off of exchanges after GOX and after SR2. ... which makes it easier to push down prices with less capital.

MY thinking about whale dynamics until I am persuaded otherwise... Do you have a better theory that makes any sense in real world thinking? I realize that I am maybe giving you too much of an opening by both acknowledging your response to me and by going further and asking you a question. Maybe there is an outside chance that you will surprise me with some meaningful response?

My therory is that the price got artificially pumped by Gox and co and that even big investors felt for this scam. Just because some big investments have been made by rich people doesn´t mean that they are smart nor that they have any kownledge about the future price of Bitcoin. If all the Bitcoin data(bid depth/trading data...) would have been real i would consider your assumptions as quite possible. I just don´t think that this is happening right now, altough it´s a method that would work wout. Or do you think that Fortress Investment Fond who bought big off exchange at an avg. price of 900$ have acted ultimately clever.
There is almost no data available how many Bitcoin have been bought off-exchange and for what price.
So what you did is speculation in it´s purest form. It´s not more probable than for example "The FBI want´s to destroy Bitcoin because they are scared" "It was invented by the NWO" or any other conspiracy theory that cannot be proven.

Right now a single early adopter could easily drive down the price to near zero(for a while).
Bitcoin with all it´s non regulations makes it oneof the most fucked up markets in the world aka manipulation to the max, more likely in the upwards direction.

Mine is only pure speculation to the extent that I do NOT have any actual real life example. I described to you incentives that exist to manipulate the BTC market. The incentive could be financial, political or both, and I suggest that the BTC manipulation that i outline would NOT be so difficult as you are suggesting.

For example let's say that someone has $100 million that he wants to invest in bitcoin, and BTC price is currently at $600. If he could drive the BTC price down to $450, then he could buy 220,000 BTC rather than 160,000 BTC with the same capital. So he may be willing to spend $10 or 20 million in order to drive down the BTC price.

That is a lot of money for me, but it is NOT a lot of money in the world of finance. And someone could do a lot of manipulation with $10 or 20 million to lose.. b/c in the end s/ he is not losing but is making a profit. There are a lot of manipulation scenarios, and I am suggesting that my described scenario is NOT as far fetched as you make it out to be - even though I do NOT have evidence of any particular example of anyone doing such thing as I outline... which could be accomplished for political or financial reasons.

Quote from: aminorex on April 04, 2014, 12:48:50 AM

more deletions.

I think that deletions should be banned...

Quote from: el_rlee on April 04, 2014, 01:19:46 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 04, 2014, 01:17:40 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 04, 2014, 12:48:50 AM

more deletions.

I think that deletions should be banned...

Is Adam trying to keep the trollbox clean and tidy or what? Ridiculous.

Probably Adam would deny such. I believe it is individuals deleting their own post,and one of the theories is that it could because of tax implications. But still... we are quasi- anonymous here.. and some forums do NOT allow the ability to delete old posts... maybe after 24 hours or something, should NOT be able to edit or delete them.

Quote from: rjp55 on April 04, 2014, 01:24:04 AM

Quote from: fonzie on April 04, 2014, 01:13:51 AM

Quote from: rjp55 on April 04, 2014, 01:09:24 AM

Bears frustrated for sure...the louder they are the more impatient they are getting...

Price falls from 1143 to 400$ and stays there -> bears are frustrated -> sure thing

Cheesy

Join the party

I have a feeling this party won't be lasting much longer, smoke the drugs while you can still enjoy them. ..

In other words, we be headin up, soon... ... maybe one more day of bear territory.. down to $415-ish or maybe $420-ish... before we depart the train station?... ALL ABOARD!!!!!!

Quote from: windjc on April 04, 2014, 01:58:38 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 04, 2014, 01:46:24 AM

Quote from: OldGeek on April 04, 2014, 01:44:45 AM

All bears will turn into bulls when their price is available. Likewise all bulls will become bears when their price is available (unless they burn their private keys).

True to some extent, for those that have a price target.

....but unfortunately, for most bears here, their price target is becoming more delusional by the day.

My price target is at its lowest 405. Hasn't changed for over a week.

What about before that? what about last month? What about in November, December, January, February?

You are playing the ups and downs of BTC, right?

You are a bear b/c you do NOT really believe in the long-term likelihood of success of BTC? Or maybe you do NOT believe it to be a good long term investment.. beyond day trading?

So, for the next 24 hours, maybe your confidence on the BTC downside would be that we would reach the following prices on bitstamp?

$430 = 90%

$425 = 75%

$420 = 50%

$415 = 35%

$410 = 25%

$405 = 20%

Something like that? Or do you think about these possibilities differently or maybe you have a longer timeline or more patience for the potential of $405?

I know sometimes, if we break through a certain barrier, then it changes the probabilities concerning the other barriers.. so the formula may be a little more complicated....

For example, if we break $418, then we are pretty likely to reach $405.. so the likelihood for $415, $410 and $405 may be very similar... but they depend upon breaking $418... for example..

Quote from: TeeBone on April 04, 2014, 02:01:00 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 04, 2014, 01:46:24 AM

Quote from: OldGeek on April 04, 2014, 01:44:45 AM

All bears will turn into bulls when their price is available. Likewise all bulls will become bears when their price is available (unless they burn their private keys).

True to some extent, for those that have a price target.

....but unfortunately, for most bears here, their price target is becoming more delusional by the day.

Not nearly as delusional as the hodlers who say they'll only sell at 50K minimum, hows that for a price target lol

That would be a rare beast that you are describing..... and also, if we went up to $50k within 1 year or some very short time-period, there may be a few people who are affected to sell off some by the quick rise in a short time-line.... something like that would be truly amazing.. and quite difficult to comprehend someone holding 1000 coins becoming that well off that quickly.. even someone holding only 20 coins would all of a sudden be a millionaire... that is a bit difficult to fathom at the moment.... so that unexpectedness could change minds and hearts...

Quote from: BitChick on April 04, 2014, 02:06:43 AM

Quote from: OldGeek on April 04, 2014, 02:04:39 AM

^^ They say that now, but if the price should get back to ATH I'll bet there would be some heavy selling by those same hodlers.

I thought that everyone would sell when we got past the ATH of $266 in November but it did not seem to stop the buyers then.

Yeah... NO matter what the price, there is potential for lot's of buyers... so long as they perceive value in it.

Quote from: MiningHabit on April 04, 2014, 03:10:25 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 11:31:48 PM

I do NOT like to jump into anything too quickly before I kind of have some ideas about it.... and by the time I was getting more informed the price was skyrocketting. Accordingly, I began my investment at about $1200.

Pro tip: learn quicker. That way you don't stagnate and buy in at the top; losing a bundle dollar costing all the way down....

So, you are the supposed "pro" giving the supposed "tip?" A bit patronizing, no?..

In fact, I doubt that you know me, my life, my risk profile, my financial circumstances sufficiently in order to be hindsight judging what "should have happened" in a supposed ideal world within your vision of what would have been a best or a better strategy under those particular circumstances.

Does it make you feel good on a quasi-anonymous forum to spout out some supposed credentials? And to suggest that your way would have been better or some other abstract way would have been better?

Why don't you provide some of your details, without doctoring them up in order that you may share in some supposed "constructive feedback?"

Actually, better than spouting out some supposed resume, why don't you describe a few paragraphs of some learning experience(s) that you had that had "enlightened" you about the ways of the world and in order to be able to "enlighten" some of us regarding "better" ways?

I'm waiting.. or otherwise, if you prefer to share some of your personal details via PM, that is fine with me, also. Send me a PM...

Otherwise, if you do NOT give some context, I question the validity or the integrity of your self-described "pro tip."

Also, your assumption about me losing money is so far unfounded in part b/c I have NOT cashed out yet.. and these kinds of risks are frequently taken into account in strategizing ways to go forward. You do NOT know whether or NOT or the extent to which some of these risks may have already been considered by me... at the beginning of my investment or during my investment and also there are a lot of "smart" financial people (whether I am one of those or NOT)(or whether you are one of those or not) who, currently, are in the red in terms of the BTC portion of their investment portfolio..

So to suggest "I told you so".. seems a bit disingenuous in these circumstances.

Quote from: KFR on April 04, 2014, 03:56:57 AM

You don't need to defend yourself to anyone JJG. Chill.

Quote from: MiningHabit on April 04, 2014, 04:47:24 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 04, 2014, 03:44:35 AM

Quote from: MiningHabit on April 04, 2014, 03:10:25 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 11:31:48 PM

I do NOT like to jump into anything too quickly before I kind of have some ideas about it.... and by the time I was getting more informed the price was skyrocketting. Accordingly, I began my investment at about $1200.

Pro tip: learn quicker. That way you don't stagnate and buy in at the top; losing a bundle dollar costing all the way down....

why don't you describe a few paragraphs of some learning experience(s) that you had that had "enlightened" you about the ways of the world

Um, ok then, I guess.

I have always been really into the Cosmos. I used to be just chillin in the back of my Montessori Pre-K school content for hours reading books about space. I got into the practicalities of capitalism during my teenage years, starting my first successful business at 18 and operated that for nearly five years throughout college. Man what a time that was. Then I went to Oxbridge for a bit, studying Maths and Philosophy. Ho and hummed through my mid 20s, including > a year at a hedge fund as a trader. Was Valedictorian of my Grad program at a top 2 engineering institution after that.

Always business minded, and liked to build shit. But I've never lost that love of the Cosmos. All that was Preamble to my main point. Here's one Learning Experience that makes me qualified to say what I said after reading dozens of your posts ITT....

I decided to take a grad course in Physics, though I'd never formally even taken any course like that during my years in undergrad. I was, and have always been fascinated with the deepest realities of existence. So I got to wondering about some things, and realized the coolest dude on campus to speak to was this guy who was a Nobel Prize winner. We had a similar background, with the Oxbridge thing. So I thought, I'll just email him and we'll chat.

And that's exactly what happened. For one Summer a few years back I got the chance to talk a couple of times, one-on-one, deep, with a Nobel Laureate. The kind of dude who drops anecdotes and kernels of understanding so deep, I'll spend a lifetime thinking about the questions they raise. Knowing that I'm likely not ever to stumble on the answers, because I'm not quite that bright.

You ever done that? Ok then. I stand by my statement. Learn quicker, it can be done.

Pro tip #2...rely on your intuition, after learning to well hone its snap judgements....
“The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.”
-Einstein

Again - You are continuing to project a patronizing approach, which may be a character difficulty that you cannot easily shake......

I feel bad for you, but what can I do?

You don't seem to get hints or subtlety... and seem to want to amp up your supposed contribution to benefit me by dishing out additional unsolicited advice to make some kind of mysterious point. Some people can take hints, very well, and some cannot. Roll Eyes

It does seem that you remain determined to get your way and attempt to jam your supposed higher learning upon me (or maybe it is for the benefit of the public?), while missing my earlier point about each of us coming to our situations from different perspectives and experiences.. .in which that was a hint that you may not know all of the circumstances of a persons goals, values and aspirations.

I do appreciate you sharing some of your background to the extent that some of that information may have been quasi-relevant to make your point about your qualification(s) in making your points. I also appreciate that you had read several of my earlier posts, which makes me feel somewhat comforted to find out that at least one person is reading some of my posts - nonetheless, you seem to continue to want to attempt to resort to a form of arm-chaired investment "advice" with incomplete information, while presuming and/or proclaiming that you have sufficient information about my situation.

Even though I get the sense we do NOT need to go on with exchanges of communications, for the sake of humor, I look forward to perusing your unsolicited pro tip #3. Roll Eyes

since you may NOT be able to resist with such. Who knows? Your behavior may be like bitcoin prices, mostly difficult to predict the direction in the short-term...

Quote from: spooderman on April 04, 2014, 05:36:18 AM

Quote from: explorer on April 04, 2014, 04:39:55 AM

Quote from: freedomno1 on April 04, 2014, 04:35:33 AM

How many speculators are on this forum dammmmnnnn long thread
Anyways almost the 1 year anniversary of this thread lol

Probably ~~20%~~ 10% of the posts have been liquidated recently, so it's not as long as it was Grin

Start at the beginning, let us know when you catch up Cheesy

i got involved around page 500. read pretty much everything since, and I only have about 6 people on ignore.

And guess what? I've basically HLOD for the whole time!

O.K. I looked up page 500 of this thread, and that was about May 20, 2013. That was before my time in BTC... but NOT before I was born.. he he he.

Did you buy before you HLOD or did you HLOD and then BUY and then HODL some more?

Seems like a long time to HODL between May and NOW without some Buying, as well - except, since the prices in May 2013 were around $100, you could have bought a bunch of BTC around that time.... maybe 100 BTC for $10,000.... though that woudl have been a lot of money to sink into BTC at once. And then been stuck with fairly stagnant BTC prices between May and October - which that is only 5 months of fairly stable prices... and then the BTC price started to really go up in October.

Quote from: chessnut on April 04, 2014, 07:09:34 AM

.... well if it's this bullish and afternoon in china, just think of how bullish it will be in 4 hours.

Posters are saying that we will retest $420... but the price on stamp is NOT going below $430... so maybe we are going to bounce into the upper $400s before the weekend... no more test of the downward, maybe? Price seems inclined to go up... at this point....

Quote from: dropt on April 04, 2014, 07:55:15 AM

Quote from: serenitys on April 04, 2014, 07:53:08 AM

This is where I am and haven't gotten my first btc yet...waiting on the verification. Scared it'll end up at 900 bucks by Monday or Tuesday when they finally hook me up. Grin

Curious about something if anyone here might know...I read somewhere in this forum something about the value of btc being coded in the math, that it can always be known how much it will be worth and how it will increase in value due to the code or whatever and that it's coded to increase exponentially. If that's knowable because of the code itself then why all the speculation?

That's ridiculous.

It is coded concerning how many can be mined and the rate of the mining reduces in half every 4 years, so that part is known.. but the price depends on adoption.. which cannot be coded... b/c you cannot code how people feel about something... unless you are the US government... he he he.. just kidding..

Quote from: joburgtaxi on April 04, 2014, 02:44:04 PM

Come on man, I am stuck at 550 full BTC !!!

that's not bad... mine is closer to $650 and I am not too worried... yet.

Quote from: mah87 on April 04, 2014, 03:33:29 PM

Quote from: ChrisML on April 04, 2014, 02:41:24 PM

Quote from: mah87 on April 04, 2014, 02:02:49 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 04, 2014, 01:59:29 PM

Quote from: podyx on April 04, 2014, 01:58:19 PM

Going down or a good buy opportunity? thoughts?

it went down so its a good buy opportunity

300$ on monday that's certain

Not sure if trolling.

Maybe not on monday but within 2weeks for sure!

Would you like to bet on this prediction? How much? I already know that you will NOT take any bet b/c you have NO confidence in such a prediction.

Quote from: mah87 on April 04, 2014, 03:37:41 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 04, 2014, 03:36:58 PM

Quote from: mah87 on April 04, 2014, 03:33:29 PM

Quote from: ChrisML on April 04, 2014, 02:41:24 PM

Quote from: mah87 on April 04, 2014, 02:02:49 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 04, 2014, 01:59:29 PM

Quote from: podyx on April 04, 2014, 01:58:19 PM

Going down or a good buy opportunity? thoughts?

it went down so its a good buy opportunity

300$ on monday that's certain

Not sure if trolling.

Maybe not on monday but within 2weeks for sure!

Would you like to bet on this prediction? How much? I already know that you will NOT take any bet b/c you have NO confidence in such a prediction.

I'm betting on this prediction.

I will take the bet directly. I will bet you 1BTC that the BTC price on Bistamp will NOT remain below $339 for more than 30 minutes in the next two weeks. Please take my bet and we will find someone to hold such bet proceeds.

Otherwise how are you betting? By spewing a bunch of NONsense and saying that you are NOT into BTC... That is NOT the same.

Quote from: oda.krell on April 04, 2014, 04:04:11 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 04, 2014, 03:54:16 PM

Quote from: p0peji on April 04, 2014, 03:39:03 PM

Really loving all the bulls who are in such denial. Kiss

I'm gonna have to put you on ignore. Bye.

Are you putting all bears on ignore? I'm feeling kinda bearish lately. Cheesy

He already put me on Ignore supposedly... he is all over the place with his ignore proclamations. I think that he is attempting reverse psychology.. by trying to project value by showing that he is a proper bitch dog bird

Quote from: podyx on April 04, 2014, 05:36:50 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on April 04, 2014, 05:28:31 PM

almost the same price across stamp/btc-e/huobi

interesting

Very interetsing indeed

Everybody is hovering at 444... which is like the new 666

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 04, 2014, 06:11:29 PM

can we get a bear to dump?

fonzie tell us again about this china thing.

Inviting the scholarly input of trolls with open arms? Huh

? hilarious... though this is your thread... so whatever.. you think is good for the thread Cheesy

My issue with Fonzie is his about 71.6378% bullshit rate but he has about a 2.4385% rate of being really hilarious, as well. So go figure.

by the way Adam, I like the new poll. INteresesting... would be more interesting if posters had to put a few satoshis on their bet.
second.. also humorous that you took out the sell, buy and hodl options.... but that would possibly only cause posters to dodge the poll question....

Quote from: podyx on April 04, 2014, 07:36:06 PM

billyjoeallen gone bearish

isn't this a strong buy signal?

He has lost his objectivity, to the extent that he may have had it previously... and he has gone somewhat bonkers with these predictions about BTC's supposed price decline...

Quote from: MinermanNC on April 04, 2014, 07:47:49 PM

Amazing, all this speculation, graphs, charts, video's, news articles, various people trying to sound official like they know something special (fonzie), bears and bulls and alike,,, and still no one seems to have a clue if BTC is going up or down lol Cheesy

this really is a great thread lol In the mean time I'll just hold tight and keep on mining whether its at 440 or 1,000

Well MinermanNC>... .there is NOTHING really new to what you are saying, as far as I understand. I have only been into BTC for a little over 4 months, and frequently, there has been quite a bit of inability to predict BTC prices on a short or medium term. HOWEVER, I bet the long term bulls (which seems to include you) will probably be correct to be assuming that the price is going to go up... There is some variation about whether the price will go above $1000 in two years or whether the price will be $10,000 or $100,000 by that time... ...

Personally, I am o.k. so long as the price in two years is at least 12% higher than my average buy in BTC price... which was my expected return on my various stock market related funds... but even if it is NOT at least 12% higher in two years, I am hedging my bets.... It would be the shits if both my stock market related funds and my BTC related investment were to go down... then my gamble will have NOT paid off... That seems to be a risk that I know about and am willing to take (even though different people are going to come to different conclusions regarding the probabilities of one outcome versus another outcome.. some will win big and some will lose big and some will be in the middle.. I am banking on being in the middle somewhere).

Quote from: MinermanNC on April 04, 2014, 08:27:53 PM

Hind sight is always 20/20 but, I wish now I had just took my first investment in GPU mining gear well over a year ago now, and purchased BTC when it was $30-$40.00 range and bought the same amount in bitcoin instead. Now even at todays prices I would be up almost $27,000 in pure profit even at todays price of 440.00 on that initial investment alone. Undecided

But like with everything else, we live and we learn... well most of the time. lol

People are still investing in mining equipment, and it seems fairly likely that they are going to get similar results... meaning that it probably would have been better to invest in buying BTC, instead. Of course there are some exceptions to this in which there may be some people who are either wise investors with their mining equipment or they have some special tactic to make the mining more profitable for them.

Quote from: BitChick on April 04, 2014, 08:49:45 PM

Quote from: Nicholas-Carraway on April 04, 2014, 08:24:29 PM

Market Cap Comparisons:

Bitcoin $5 B
Apple $475 B
Chipotle Mexican Grill $17 B
Dollar Tree, Inc. $11 B
IBM $200 B
Intel $130 B
Costco $49 B
CVS Caremark $89 B
Berkshire Hathaway $307 B
Pandora Media $5.6 B

Most people probably haven't even heard of the names for 99% of the companies with the same market cap of BTC. It is still in small-cap stock territory and it's market price behaves as such. How much Capital does it take to move the price around? $5 million has a huge effect. How many individuals can move that much into and out of a market(s)? How many trading firms around the world can? How does $50 million sound? This isn't even the beginning yet. Fortunately, and I think there are a good number of people here who already know this, all of the information you will need will be right there in front of you, hidden in plain sight. You just have to focus and know how to see it.

I've learned a few things about bitcoin from this thread and had a few laughs, so thank you for that. I wish you all well, although I will still try to take your money if given a chance. Wink

Sayonara,
Nick

Stats like these are always so eye opening. We get so concerned about China but many of these companies are only in the USA so we should not be too concerned. To think that BTC only has a market cap of $5 Billion and Chipotle is 3x that? Don't get me wrong, I like Chipotle, but that is crazy. Wink

The question I have is what is the estimated price when we reach $10 B, $15 B, $50 B and so on. I guess it depends on the amount being hoarded or available on the market at that time?

You already know that market cap is calculated by number of coins in existence times price of a coin. so approximately $4500 per coin, if we get to a $50 billion market cap.. maybe a little less, b/c there will be more coins...

In my mind Hoarding is a slightly different question that can drive up market price, along with lost coins, etc.. Just b/c those coins are lost or NOT in circulation, that does NOT affect the calculated market cap.. even though with lost coins, for example, they are Never coming back into circulation to be realized as part of the overall cashing out of the market cap.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 04, 2014, 08:50:32 PM

Quote from: bitcoinsrus on April 04, 2014, 07:37:50 PM

Quote from: podyx on April 04, 2014, 07:36:06 PM

billyjoeallen gone bearish

isn't this a strong buy signal?

Waffles, waffles.... Buy waffles

So I'm a contra-indicator now, huh? If I'm so stupid, then why do I have so much money and coins to trade now?

If you want my coins, just bid up the price a little higher. If you want my cash, you'll have to drive the price down until I feel like maybe maybe buying back. I hope there's a rally because I'll be partying with bull money if there is. Being a reckless bull for so long has given me a monster pile of coins to dump on your heads.

Disrespect me at your pleasure or peril. The market always has the last word.

Those previous comments by Bitcoinsrus does NOT seem to be disrespectful, but instead merely an observation of your change in your apparent position. Also, I do NOT perceive things like this thread to be a competition, even though others may consider it to be such... and that is why, when you perceive threads like this as a means to compete and to deceive people, then you are resorting to self-ish behavior...

Surely I am going to take information on this thread with a grain of salt, but my intention is to share information for the benefit of everyone.. and to the extent that I may spin or NOT disclose my exact strategy will NOT be some major push to trick people into buying or selling in order to favor me or to fulfill some position that I have that I want filled.

We each have our ways... so to each his/her own in that regard.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 04, 2014, 09:22:45 PM

Yes, I'm clearly bonkers. Buy your asses off. I'm trying to do you assholes a favor, but if you don't listen, I will take your money. Fact: there will be no rally this weekend that doesn't result in me having thousands of dollars more than I do now.

On the other hand, if you are wrong and there is a market plunge, you're pissing off one of the few people left on the exchanges with cash to help save you.

Since when is 50/50 fiat/crypto not objective?

Definitely it is good to have your bets hedged in various ways.. but NO reason to call others assholes, just b/c they may have a different opinion about which way to bet... or to suggest that you have some vision that is way superior than others. To the extent that you provide justifications for your predictions, then other readers of the tread can benefit from that... To the extent that you may be trying to force the market in one direction or another, then that seems to be another story and a story that may grate on readers a little bit...

But, whatever, do what you do.. ... that is your choice, but sometimes you should expect some backlash when posters recognize or at least perceive that you have shifted (or waffled) in your position...

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 04, 2014, 09:36:15 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 04, 2014, 09:29:19 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 04, 2014, 08:50:32 PM

Quote from: bitcoinsrus on April 04, 2014, 07:37:50 PM

Quote from: podyx on April 04, 2014, 07:36:06 PM

billyjoeallen gone bearish

isn't this a strong buy signal?

Waffles, waffles.... Buy waffles

So I'm a contra-indicator now, huh? If I'm so stupid, then why do I have so much money and coins to trade now?

If you want my coins, just bid up the price a little higher. If you want my cash, you'll have to drive the price down until I feel like maybe maybe buying back. I hope there's a rally because I'll be partying with bull money if there is. Being a reckless bull for so long has given me a monster pile of coins to dump on your heads.

Disrespect me at your pleasure or peril. The market always has the last word.

Those previous comments by Bitcoinsrus does NOT seem to be disrespectful, but instead merely an observation of your change in your apparent position. Also, I do NOT perceive things like this thread to be a competition, even though others may consider it to be such... and that is why, when you perceive threads like this as a means to compete and to deceive people, then you are resorting to self-ish behavior...

Surely I am going to take information on this thread with a grain of salt, but my intention is to share information for the benefit of everyone.. and to the extent that I may spin or NOT disclose my exact strategy will NOT be some major push to trick people into buying or selling in order to favor me or to fulfill some position that I have that I want filled.

We each have our ways... so to each his/her own in that regard.

Selfish behavior would be telling people what they want to hear so that I could be more popular. I'm doing the opposite. It's also in my financial best interest to say the opposite of what I'm saying. I may be wrong, but I'm not being deceptive, you piece of shit.

O.K. Maybe I overstated the case, but why do you need to resort to name calling? I'm just making an observation, and surely I could be wrong in my observation and noticing your seemingly extreme statements to push one way and then to push another way...... .. I am NOT engaging in such observation about your seeming to switch your position to undermine you or to bad mouth you... it just seems to be lacking some objective analysis... especially when you are saying let's all do this in order to save BTC from a downward spiral.. it just seems to be much too much to be trying to persuade people to act in concert, when it may NOT be a good idea for them... .. and it may NOT even seem to be a convincing logical choice to "save" bitcoin...

Quote from: Dr. LY on April 04, 2014, 10:28:53 PM

Bull for now. If we break 400, I'm out.

NOT a very hardy bull... that's for sure. Maybe a fair weather bull?

Quote from: chessnut on April 04, 2014, 10:33:14 PM

Quote from: mmitech on April 04, 2014, 10:25:47 PM

to be honest, I am at a point where I am not sure anymore if to be a bull or a bear.... the market is just confusing me, the thin order book and the tiny actions going on makes the possibility of going up or going down almost the same... so if you know more beat me to it.

Do you try project your expectations onto the market with realistic time frames and price action?
When the market drags on for months, and mood is negative we tend to change our expectations. But if you could have watched this bubble pop in fast forward, would you be surprised by anything yet? not me. This is going to the game plan 100%.

I am just so uber bullish right now. Everything is going just fine.

.... the bottom is a miserable time..... of coarse the order book will be thin and price will be stagnant.

Also, we may have to stay at this lower price range for several weeks before the large majority of weaker hands are bled out...

I can stick it out for a year or two if needed at this price range or even lower.. so long as the BTC fundamentals remain in a similar ballpark. Certainly, that would be a worst case scenario.. and I expect the prices to go up much sooner.. maybe no later than a month.

Quote from: aminorex on April 04, 2014, 11:16:34 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 04, 2014, 09:22:45 PM

Yes, I'm clearly bonkers.

When you were an überbull, you were outspoken, brash, opinionated, politically incorrect in a charmingly egotistical way. As bear, you're positively pre-menstrual.

Maybe he lost his private keys to his bitcointalk password.. and his account has been taken over by an alien?

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 05, 2014, 12:22:02 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 05, 2014, 12:10:35 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 05, 2014, 12:07:08 AM

Dudes, no offence and all.. but...
could you just for one day.. maybe confess just to yourself.. that drawing these little lines on these littles graphs is just a method to justify your gambling problems?

I dont think you understand our objectives.

any old pumpkin head can see bitcoin is a good risk investment. but if you want to pay double the fair price...... go ahead! TA is risk management no more.

DONT come to a speculation forum and make fun of the TA.

nah, dude, bitcoin is currently an high rish, low reward investment

alts are interesting though Wink

I'm not making fun of you guys.. just try to relax.. you are so serious about subjects that shouldn't be taken serious at all

Yes, pumpkin... some of us have already figured out NOT to take you seriously.. b/c you are posting mostly crap.. so far.. whether that makes us want to join in on your making fun of us, I doubt it.

Few people like to laugh when they are being poked at.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 05, 2014, 01:42:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 05, 2014, 01:25:38 AM

O.K. Maybe I overstated the case, but why do you need to resort to name calling? I'm just making an observation, and surely I could be wrong in my observation and noticing your seemingly extreme statements to push one way and then to push another way...... .. I am NOT engaging in such observation about your seeming to switch your position to undermine you or to bad mouth you... it just seems to be lacking some objective analysis... especially when you are saying let's all do this in order to save BTC from a downward spiral.. it just seems to be much too much to be trying to persuade people to act in concert, when it may NOT be a good idea for them... .. and it may NOT even seem to be a convincing logical choice to "save" bitcoin...

Bitcoin doesn't need saving and it would be incredible hubris for to think I was even capable of doing so anyway. I was trying to only save the people reading this thread some money, and I resent you questioning my motives. You should know me better by now. I'm not some noob troll.

Doesn't mean I'm not wrong. All that people were saying about relative market caps is true. I just want people to understand the risks involved.

I could just be the case that I am a little bit irritable, especially when I felt that I was getting chastised yesterday (and I think that you were part of that) and some pressure being made to sell at $418 or whatever the price was at that time... It is irritating communicating about those kinds of things, sometimes... when I have already decided that I was NOT going to sell at that point.

Quote from: nanobrain on April 05, 2014, 02:12:48 AM

Quote from: tarmi on April 05, 2014, 01:25:09 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 05, 2014, 12:43:59 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 05, 2014, 12:37:08 AM

If I had to guess, then I would guess that you bought from the top and that is the reason why you are so nervous at the moment..

Im holding from $100 average. never bought above 600. Im really not nervous at all. but perhaps a little irritable.....

tell us more.

Name:   chessnut
Posts:   1113
Activity:   98
Position:   Member
Date Registered:   January 14, 2014, 05:28:31 AM

Whoa..that's more than 14 posts a day....that explains why a lot of pages are just him and @JJG swapping predictions that don't happen. Shroomskit used to keep these types in order but he seems quite sad from what I can tell...his obsession with sheep seems to have become quite an issue. Wink

@Aminorex - so the casual sexism still prevails - I don't think BobbySue could handle a period really, he seems to squeal pretty easy. Cheesy

We have already figured out that largely Shroomskit does NOT know what the fuck he is talking about, half the time, so probably, it would NOT be good to getting counsel from him...

But to each his own.. and some guys may appreciate his style... if that's what it is called?

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 05, 2014, 02:22:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 05, 2014, 02:10:48 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 05, 2014, 12:22:02 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 05, 2014, 12:10:35 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 05, 2014, 12:07:08 AM

Dudes, no offence and all.. but...
could you just for one day.. maybe confess just to yourself.. that drawing these little lines on these littles graphs is just a method to justify your gambling problems?

I dont think you understand our objectives.

any old pumpkin head can see bitcoin is a good risk investment. but if you want to pay double the fair price...... go ahead! TA is risk management no more.

DONT come to a speculation forum and make fun of the TA.

nah, dude, bitcoin is currently an high rish, low reward investment

alts are interesting though Wink

I'm not making fun of you guys.. just try to relax.. you are so serious about subjects that shouldn't be taken serious at all

Yes, pumpkin... some of us have already figured out NOT to take you seriously.. b/c you are posting mostly crap.. so far.. whether that makes us want to join in on your making fun of us, I doubt it.

Few people like to laugh when they are being poked at.

Dude, if you get this emotional about money, then you really shouldn't be involved with crypto gambling. Just take a deep breath and think on what would MacGyver do.
I've had too much vodka today, so much sleep and plenty of r&r needed for the whole weekend. Take care, and never forget to stop and smell the roses!

Have a good weekend... maybe see you monday or maybe in a few weeks.. good luck with your investigation into alts, also . Wink

Quote from: mooncake on April 05, 2014, 02:41:50 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 05, 2014, 02:38:27 AM

Have a good weekend... maybe see you monday or maybe in a few weeks.. good luck with your investigation into alts, also . Wink

Chill off. You will be just wasting time and energy if you put forth your argument while being emotional. Instead, you should be calm and argue based on logic and intellect. Ignore those who try to provoke you.

Emotional? Cheesy

Quote from: dreamspark on April 05, 2014, 02:37:59 AM

Huobi overtaking stamp

Surely seems like a weird time for either a train or a rocket to be taking off... But I am 98% on board... so only about 2% of me will be left behind... .. that is if we are truly departing?

Quote from: mooncake on April 05, 2014, 02:46:38 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 05, 2014, 02:45:19 AM

Quote from: mooncake on April 05, 2014, 02:41:50 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 05, 2014, 02:38:27 AM

Have a good weekend... maybe see you monday or maybe in a few weeks.. good luck with your investigation into alts, also . Wink

Chill off. You will be just wasting time and energy if you put forth your argument while being emotional. Instead, you should be calm and argue based on logic and intellect. Ignore those who try to provoke you.

Emotional? Cheesy

Wrong word? Cheesy

I have more of an irresistible urge to write long sentences.. .. but who is really and truly capable of self-diagnosis? Huh

Quote from: chessnut on April 05, 2014, 03:23:09 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on April 05, 2014, 03:20:36 AM

So, I'm noticing a pattern here.

Blip of volume = great excitement, talk of trains, rockets and 'da moon'
BTC rises $10 to $20
Everyone here proclaims "this is it" and "confirmed"
BTC sinks back $10 to $20
Everyone here conveniently forgets what has happened and blames Chinese/Russians/IRS/bears/aliens/JorgeStolfi until next blip.

This sounds as much fun as watching rugby.

I hear you. we are joking around. but there is some genuine excitement among the seasoned traders at the moment. this is one of the best signals in months.

Since I am taking this so genuine excitement so seriously... I just bought .65 BTC for shits and giggles and to boost off the rocket-cat, a little bit.

Quote from: chessnut on April 05, 2014, 03:44:13 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on April 05, 2014, 03:41:56 AM

I don't think 'seasoned traders' make a claim about the market reversing every couple of hours....please don't patronise me.

Well I dont claim a reversal every few hours. but reversals happen over days.... we can joke all day long.

I am a seasoned trader and I dont need confirmation Grin

CONFIRMED!

Quote from: nanobrain on April 05, 2014, 05:16:58 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 05, 2014, 03:44:13 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on April 05, 2014, 03:41:56 AM

I don't think 'seasoned traders' make a claim about the market reversing every couple of hours....please don't patronise me.

Well I dont claim a reversal every few hours. but reversals happen over days.... we can joke all day long.

I am a seasoned trader and I don't need confirmation Grin

I've just seen your profile, if you really are only a 21 year old Kiwi then trust me - you are not a seasoned trader, nor an expert in anything, especially not human psychology as you claim. I mention Kiwi because, while I love Auckland but prefer Wellington, your country is somewhat isolated and your values and attitudes somewhat different from those in say NY or London.

But your age would explain your urge for validation here.

Sounds more like a message that should have been sent privately, rather than publicly.. Nanobrain...

What's the point of criticizing Chestnut publicly... .. or to suggest that you do NOT agree with Nor appreciate his contributions..?

Quote from: EuroTrash on April 05, 2014, 10:06:01 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on April 05, 2014, 09:25:10 AM

Huobi bears woke up to dump

There was a shortage of red candles at the shop. New supplies arrived in the morning and revived the bears' hopes... But some of them will have to be left in the dark.

I am about ready to go to sleep.. how low should I set my buys on BTC e? maybe $423? We cannot really expect to go much lower than that, no?

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 05, 2014, 10:28:25 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 05, 2014, 10:23:09 AM

Quote from: EuroTrash on April 05, 2014, 10:06:01 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on April 05, 2014, 09:25:10 AM

Huobi bears woke up to dump

There was a shortage of red candles at the shop. New supplies arrived in the morning and revived the bears' hopes... But some of them will have to be left in the dark.

I am about ready to go to sleep.. how low should I set my buys on BTC e? maybe $423? We cannot really expect to go much lower than that, no?

staggering em buying more as it goes lower towards your chosen bottom I'd use something lower than the last ATL the only news that dumps us back there is like a main Chinese exchanges losing bank privileges.

I do generally stagger... yet, I am quite skeptical even whether $423 is probable in the next 10 hours... .. but maybe if we were gonna have a quasi-choo choo, the earliest that it would depart would be around Sunday evening? don't usuallly get upswings on Saturdays or sunday mornings.... never say never/// Huh

Quote from: EuroTrash on April 05, 2014, 11:03:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 05, 2014, 10:23:09 AM

Quote from: EuroTrash on April 05, 2014, 10:06:01 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on April 05, 2014, 09:25:10 AM

Huobi bears woke up to dump

There was a shortage of red candles at the shop. New supplies arrived in the morning and revived the bears' hopes... But some of them will have to be left in the dark.

I am about ready to go to sleep.. how low should I set my buys on BTC e? maybe $423? We cannot really expect to go much lower than that, no?

Sorry if that was a question to me I read it too late. The red candles have run out again. I wrote "some of them (the bears) will have to be left in the dark" and that's what I meant. Please take my words as seriously as you would take trading advice from some random dude on a forum.

My question was for anyone who would have been willing to make some kind of potentially reasonable assertion that may affect my thinking. I also made some posts in the BTC e troll box at around that time, just to see if anyone had anything potentially meaningful that may have affected my current thinking.

I had quoted you specifically b/c you had recently posted, and it seemed that everyone else around that same time was quoting that troll guy..... um um um .. what's his face?

Anyhow, it appears we made it through my sleepy-sleep time without any radical price movement.. and maybe we are just going to stay quasi-flat-lined until late Sunday-ish?

Quote from: dreamspark on April 05, 2014, 11:58:04 AM

Quote from: EuroTrash on April 05, 2014, 11:42:15 AM

posting this for the sake of argument

2013 bottom

now

Looking at the volume of those two charts, why do posters in here keep telling us that we can't have a bottom without a huge increase in volume? Im not seeing a particularly large amount of volume around the 2013 bottom either or certainly not masses more than there is at the moment especially if you take $400 as the bottom from post gox shut down and this is just a China lead leg down.

Another question of difference from 2013 to 2014 could be regarding which exchanges are driving the price - so if there is a change in which exchange(s) are driving the price then that change may reflect differently in the different time periods.

Quote from: chromosoma on April 05, 2014, 06:28:02 PM

I will not buy that shit anymore. Totally useless crap those cryprocurrency are
until i can pay with BTC for my Pizza, in grocery store of for other daily life services, i would prefer real money.

See you at $100,000+, then. b/c the price per BTC may be well over $100k before all your wishes are satisfied...

No problem.. I will sell you some of my BTC when you feel that you can use them better at any tom, dick or harry's shop. I may even give you a 5% discount at such point, if I am feeling particularly charitable towards the BTC poor.

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on April 05, 2014, 07:08:53 PM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on April 05, 2014, 07:02:53 PM

Quote from: podyx on April 05, 2014, 07:00:48 PM

Ivanhoe, are u implying it's impossible for a youngster(15-20) to realize the value in bitcoin?

Or just that it is more unlikely then a 35 year old?

Not impossible, but just more unlikely Wink

I think youngsters probably are less likely to want bitcoin for "store of value" or "safe from confiscation" etc. , but are more likely to start using it as a currency once there are enough places to use it (for example poker sites etc.).

They also may like the technological aspects, the potential control without a bank and the hip factor of the latest and greatest

Quote from: jonoiv on April 05, 2014, 07:05:22 PM

Quote from: aminorex on April 05, 2014, 06:26:42 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 05, 2014, 06:20:06 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on April 05, 2014, 05:47:39 PM

Short-term looks bullish to me.

bid

It's not bullish or bearish. It's consolidation. You're seeing the oscillations get smaller and smaller as the amplitude of the swings decrease as the bots skim the market maker spread. It's gonna flatline before or unless some new development upsets the equilibrium.

Denial. Its a bull penant. Igorr showed us.

I have no idea which way it will go.

But it can't be a bull pendent, as a bull pendent can only be formed at the end of a strong up trend.

You must be thinking of a bear flag.

I appreciate seeing these instructive charts, yet one thing is that they do NOT seem to have predictive value, until after the price has gone one direction or another, then you will describe what it "was" that was being observed. In other words, whether it is a bear or a bull, they look the same, until the break out takes place.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 05, 2014, 07:28:40 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 05, 2014, 07:17:41 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on April 05, 2014, 07:08:53 PM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on April 05, 2014, 07:02:53 PM

Quote from: podyx on April 05, 2014, 07:00:48 PM

Ivanhoe, are u implying it's impossible for a youngster(15-20) to realize the value in bitcoin?

Or just that it is more unlikely then a 35 year old?

Not impossible, but just more unlikely Wink

I think youngsters probably are less likely to want bitcoin for "store of value" or "safe from confiscation" etc. , but are more likely to start using it as a currency once there are enough places to use it (for example poker sites etc.).

They also may like the technological aspects, the potential control without a bank and the hip factor of the latest and greatest

They should want it for a bunch of reasons, but they don't- at least not yet. Stupid kids. Clearly there's a problem with them and not us, right?

They are what they are. They are NOT going to buy into BTC until their friends buy in, so this could take a little bit of time.. but also shows a considerable upside potential for BTC.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 05, 2014, 07:28:40 PM

The only thing that makes me feel dumber than selling a bitcoin at $456 is trying to sell one and being unable to. I want some money! This isn't some intimidating sell wall, it's one goddamn coin. Do you guys realize how pathetic we must look from the outside?

NOBODY is going to buy your BTC at $456 if and when the market rate for BTC is $453.. That fact does NOT look pathetic. Rather to me, it looks like the temporary condition of BTC - a lack of volatility for the moment.

Quote from: jonoiv on April 05, 2014, 07:31:20 PM

They are the same! The bull and the bear pendent /flag. The only difference is the direction they started from. For example all the bearish pendents / flags come at the end of a down trend, and all Bullish pendents / flags form at the end of an uptrend.

look at all the examples and look where the price line started.

OK... Thanks. I did NOT catch that starting point of the graphs, the first time around.

So we can take a snap-shot of the price performance at any given time and say this is the BTC price direction probabilities that seems most likely based on this particular pattern, and so it seems that we are overall in a downtrend, a tht emoment, especially if we look at various periods of time since early December 2013.

Actually, we could randomly pick any large variety of time periods between early December 2013 and present and we will likely conclude that we are in a downtrend and thus bearish.

However, as soon as we pick any point in time prior to mid-November 2013, then it appears that we are going to have to conclude that we are in an uptrend, no?

Yes, I do understand and accept the concept for the short-term analysis, but it would be very difficult to escape contrasting that shorter-term analysis with longer-term analysis in order to have a more complete picture of projecting both the short-term and the long term probabilities of BTC prices. No?

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 05, 2014, 08:01:30 PM

Quote from: ChrisML on April 05, 2014, 07:48:22 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 05, 2014, 07:38:25 PM

YES!!! someone finally bought it on bitfinex. Now quick, somebody dump so I can buy in back @ $447.

What about hodling like a BTC pro. And let the dumping behind us.

You had your chance a few times the last weeks.

Yeah, I held like a pro and saw my net worth plummet by two thirds. Whores are pros. They get fucked. So did I. If this little rally continues, you'll see a lot more of my coins in else's pockets and If I don't get the chance to buy them back cheaper, I'm tempted to walk away and spend the cash on coke and "pros".

Ok. I don't know what people do exactly or how they trade.. however, let's take some of the information that you already provided to us and then speculate a little.

Let's say for example that you bet wrong b/c you were betting that BTC prices would go to sub $400. Accordingly, you sold 100 BTC at $430.

From info you provided, we already know that your average BTC buy in price is less than $40. Therefore, your total buy in price for 100 BTC is $4,000, but your sell price is $43,000. You bet wrong, and the train leaves the station, and at some point you say, "shit, i better get on this train or I am going to be left when they get to the rocket liftoff." Therefore, you buy back in at $500 rather than $400. You are only able to buy 86 BTC with your $43,000 rather than 107.5 BTC at $400. You are still ahead by $39,000 with your initial investment, even though you could have been ahead by more.

In this hypothetical, you lost $4000, but the difference in what you could have gained is 21.5 BTC. Yet, that is part of the risk in taking chances. NO?

I know that I am speculating on the numbers, and maybe you bet 500BTC but the same theory applies - just multiply by 5. There is still a fairly decent chance that prices could reach $429 again before the weekend is up... ... maybe 40% chance?

Quote from: jonoiv on April 05, 2014, 08:15:18 PM

Quote from: NewLiberty on April 05, 2014, 08:12:06 PM

Clearly 1a starting from nov.

true.

but the current situation?

The "current" situation starts from any point before November as easily as it as it starts from any point after December. It is just arbitrary to select one to the exclusion of the other in order to arrive at a simple conclusion... Yes, we can attempt to predict short term on more current, but both short and long term predictions is also affected by more than just the short-term snapshot.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 05, 2014, 09:57:37 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 05, 2014, 09:46:04 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 05, 2014, 08:01:30 PM

Quote from: ChrisML on April 05, 2014, 07:48:22 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 05, 2014, 07:38:25 PM

YES!!! someone finally bought it on bitfinex. Now quick, somebody dump so I can buy in back @ $447.

What about hodling like a BTC pro. And let the dumping behind us.

You had your chance a few times the last weeks.

Yeah, I held like a pro and saw my net worth plummet by two thirds. Whores are pros. They get fucked. So did I. If this little rally continues, you'll see a lot more of my coins in else's pockets and If I don't get the chance to buy them back cheaper, I'm tempted to walk away and spend the cash on coke and "pros".

Ok. I don't know what people do exactly or how they trade.. however, let's take some of the information that you already provided to us and then speculate a little.

Let's say for example that you bet wrong b/c you were betting that BTC prices would go to sub $400. Accordingly, you sold 100 BTC at $430.

From info you provided, we already know that your average BTC buy in price is less than $40. Therefore, your total buy in price for 100 BTC is $4,000, but your sell price is $43,000. You bet wrong, and the train leaves the station, and at some point you say, "shit, i better get on this train or I am going to be left when they get to the rocket liftoff." Therefore, you buy back in at $500 rather than $400. You are only able to buy 86 BTC with your $43,000 rather than 107.5 BTC at $400. You are still ahead by $39,000 with your initial investment, even though you could have been ahead by more.

In this hypothetical, you lost $4000, but the difference in what you could have gained is 21.5 BTC. Yet, that is part of the risk in taking chances. NO?

I know that I am speculating on the numbers, and maybe you bet 500BTC but the same theory applies - just multiply by 5. There is still a fairly decent chance that prices could reach $429 again before the weekend is up... ... maybe 40% chance?

That's pretty close, yes. $429 his weekend is more like a 15% chance, but over the next two weeks it's more like a 55% chance.

Again, we have somewhat opposing presumptions.

I am thinking that the chances are higher that we would hit $429 in the shorter term, and the more that time passes.. the more likely the train is going to leave the station never to return to these sub $500 prices.... except possibly a flash crash here or there or some other aberrations in downward price manipulation... When we start to get to some of these higher price platform territories... we NOT coming back... except maybe flashing.

Quote from: chessnut on April 05, 2014, 10:29:34 PM

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 05, 2014, 10:18:24 PM

I went to bed feeling I'd wake up to this price, starting to feeling safer as does the market. Monday could be make or break, as no bad news = continued recovery

yeah it feels like calm before the storm. although I closed some of my position just so I could get a good sleep.

You sleep better in BTC or in fiat?... need I ask? Cheesy

Quote from: TeeBone on April 05, 2014, 10:37:57 PM

Quote from: podyx on April 05, 2014, 07:35:55 PM

Have we witnessed billyjoeallen go full retard?? (based on his last post)

Because he doesnt follow lock-step what the Hodl herd wants, and has the discipline to change views (even if short-term) after trial and error ? Im glad i dont follow your pack, or any pack for that matter, it's a liberating feeling Cool

There's NO mandate that you have to HODL... I resemble that statement, so much.... !!! You can also BUY, BUY, BUY. Either of them are good.

Quote from: shmadz on April 05, 2014, 10:47:30 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 05, 2014, 10:31:08 PM

Quote from: fonzie on April 05, 2014, 10:11:15 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 05, 2014, 10:08:48 PM

it's sneaking up like nobody noticed.

That trendline formed a lil wedge.

Did you switch to Bitstamp now that your upwards support line on Huobi has been broken?

Nice try!

Now that ~~second chart~~ (err.. third chart I guess, the very bottom one), looks extremely bullish to me. I don't know the terms but this guy on youtube told me that the more times you test a resistance level, the more likely it is that you will break through...

My gut is still uncertain, we could see sub-400 easy, but my mind is made up.

That is why I think that it is possible to break $420.. but getting less and less likely. $420 was broken only a few times.. and we got down to $418-ish... Anyhow, $400 has not been tested yet.. so presumptuous for anyone to be suggesting that $400 tested several times...

Quote from: TeeBone on April 05, 2014, 10:54:21 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 05, 2014, 10:44:37 PM

Quote from: TeeBone on April 05, 2014, 10:37:57 PM

Quote from: podyx on April 05, 2014, 07:35:55 PM

Have we witnessed billyjoeallen go full retard?? (based on his last post)

Because he doesnt follow lock-step what the Hodl herd wants, and has the discipline to change views (even if short-term) after trial and error ? Im glad i dont follow your pack, or any pack for that matter, it's a liberating feeling Cool

There's NO mandate that you have to HODL... I resemble that statement, so much.... !!! You can also BUY, BUY, BUY. Either of them are good.

Yeh, yeh we've heard it a zillion times...buy, buy, buy....cheap, cheap, cheap...any coin is a cheap coin...it could be at 10K and bultards would be saying it's cheap. Fortunately, i was canny enough to block out the snake oil pitches, and get out at 600-950 after buying in at 125.

I consider anything below $1000 to be pretty good value.. but of course it is all relative. Who would buy a BTC at $1000, if they are on sale for $458-ish.. while supplies last?

Also, if you are out of BTC and you are NOT convinced, then why you hanging out here? You want to save some of us from ourselves, or do you have some kind of vested interest to hang around these parts?

Quote from: jonoiv on April 06, 2014, 01:22:43 AM

Quote from: shmadz on April 06, 2014, 01:02:04 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 06, 2014, 12:56:40 AM

Quote from: byronbb on April 06, 2014, 12:50:33 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 06, 2014, 12:42:18 AM

Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on April 06, 2014, 12:28:52 AM

Quote from: jojo69 on April 06, 2014, 12:27:19 AM

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465. If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

This doesn't make any sense. One should make decisions based on the current market, not "I am going to chase losses with leverage if I am wrong".

I made $400 today locked in. That's not "if the market holds". That's USD. and if the market keeps going up, I'll lock in more. I hope it does. I will have tens of thousands of dollars to jump back on the gravy train if a clear reversal materializes.

What exactly would be sufficient evidence or indication of a clear reversal?

here my thoughts.

If we were to break 500 then it's looking good. but if you follow the current trend line that will take us to April 15th to reach $500. Volume on the uptrend will run-out long before this. in about 18 hours is a rough guess.

When we go down next time, if the bottom is less then the last time (416 stamp, then the charts may show a reverse shoulder), 3 dips, with the lowest dip in the middle... then you will see a real bullish pump and we may be out of the woods.

We may get some more bad news and China ban bitcoin again. Or there may be some good news.

I have a difficult time envisioning a BTC dip to less than $425 on stamp in the next 18 hours, absent some additional negative news from China or wherever, and since people are saying that it is a holiday in China on Monday, we are less likely to get negative news or even clarification of any matters from China, until Tuesday.

The reason that I doubt lower BTC price dips is b/c it seems that the China FUD (or whatever we are calling it these days) seems to have been milked to its utmost.

To a large extent, there does NOT seem to be any major / material restrictions from fiat getting into exchanges from what was already speculated in early December. Surely it seems that some of the fiat funding avenues may have dried up, but the Chinese seem to have various alternative means to get fiat in and out of exchanges - at least the chinese people who are mostly into bitcoin... and let's face it... bitcoin in china is not trickling down to the masses of regular chinese people - instead, it is .01%-ish of the chinese population who are speculating with bitcoin in china - and these guys/gals are NOT likely going to be easily altered by a few restrictions, here and there... except to potentially cause some FUD, to the extent that any additional FUD can be milked out of these kinds of loosey goosey facts.

Quote from: Erdogan on April 06, 2014, 01:46:33 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 06, 2014, 12:42:18 AM

Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on April 06, 2014, 12:28:52 AM

Quote from: jojo69 on April 06, 2014, 12:27:19 AM

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465. If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40 er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks.... if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows? working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

Quote from: Erdogan on April 06, 2014, 01:52:07 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 06, 2014, 01:13:42 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on April 06, 2014, 12:52:06 AM

Martingale trading is a bulletproof strat

Only if you have an infinite line, infinite time, snd a random market. I.e. never. But it does form an important part of a balanced algo.

The martingale fallacy is based on the fact that the human brain is not easily fathoming the speed with which an exponential function increases. You have to use your left brain for that, which takes some thought work.

Edit: And you also have to understand the limit of your betting power, and the limit for bets in the casino.

Edit2: And to top it up: Your only gain in the end, if you win before the limits, is the size of your first bet. So if you start low, to be able to go on for a large number of rounds, your win is also low. If you start a martingale series with a one dollar bet, and lose many times, you could end up putting thousands on the table, and if you win in the end, your gain is one dollar, the size of the first bet.

A Martingale strategy works, so long as the win amount is equal to the bet and the odds are 50/50. With a 1 dollar bet, you are very likely to win your 1 back dollar bet back before you get anywhere near $1000. If the odds are 50/50, then you would have to lose 7 times in a row, to reach into the $100 arena... highly unlikely if the odds truly are 50/50.. the trick in that regard is making sure that you do NOT miscalculate the odds.

Quote from: Erdogan on April 06, 2014, 02:08:10 AM

Looking at the trades, which maybe is a perverse hobby of mine, I am regularly surprised at how much fiat people have ready on the exchanges for buying in the weekends. Why wait? Why not just buy as soon as the fiat arrives. At least, why not put up an order somewhere below the latest price to take advantage of a dump?

I think that these investors have already calculated a pattern in which no matter what - on average, and if you play the odds of averages, BTC prices are lower on the weekends, and that they do NOT want to show their hands regarding the quantity of their fiat and that their fiat is going to leverage a lot more on the weekends, as well...

Quote from: Erdogan on April 06, 2014, 02:57:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 06, 2014, 02:21:04 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on April 06, 2014, 01:46:33 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 06, 2014, 12:42:18 AM

Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on April 06, 2014, 12:28:52 AM

Quote from: jojo69 on April 06, 2014, 12:27:19 AM

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465. If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40 er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks.... if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows? working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

I doubt that we really have fair and balanced reporting in this thread... which sometimes gets the FUD screaming way too disproportionately to the reality of the Bitcoin situation.

Yes, it is good to have some reality checks and some analysis of downtrends; however, most people who are truly knowledgeable about BTC (even some of the so called bears) recognize the long-term bullish potential of BTC.. whether we getting to some stable price point of $600 for the long term or $1,000 or $10,000 or $100,000.

Of course there are going to be some government attacks, banking industry attacks and other contrarians, but there seem to be way too many resources going into BTC networks for us to fall short of some kind of decently high returns on our current investments of anything below $1000 per BTC.. minimally in the couple thousand range with a much higher potential.. as most of the knowledgeable ones in this thread and in the BTC sphere seem to recognize... even though there is some short term... back and forth and even propaganda within this thread... and bitcointalk seems to have a pretty high tolerance regarding the content of posts... even if some of the contents seem to be pretty apparently untrue or seem to be for incitement purposes.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 06, 2014, 03:09:54 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on April 06, 2014, 02:57:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 06, 2014, 02:21:04 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on April 06, 2014, 01:46:33 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 06, 2014, 12:42:18 AM

Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on April 06, 2014, 12:28:52 AM

Quote from: jojo69 on April 06, 2014, 12:27:19 AM

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465. If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40 er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks.... if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows? working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

That does NOT sound like leverage to me.... except maybe to the extent you may have withdrawn more of your first child's college money in order to make your bets. Shocked

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 06, 2014, 03:21:23 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on April 06, 2014, 03:13:45 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 06, 2014, 03:09:54 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on April 06, 2014, 02:57:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 06, 2014, 02:21:04 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on April 06, 2014, 01:46:33 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 06, 2014, 12:42:18 AM

Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on April 06, 2014, 12:28:52 AM

Quote from: jojo69 on April 06, 2014, 12:27:19 AM

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465. If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40 er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks.... if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows? working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

Fair enough, but that means your shorts work against your cold storage. Why leverage both? Why not just do one of the things, and rightsize your holdings? Give the kids some food and have ease of mind.

Because I want to learn how to day trade. If I am successful, I will help soak up excess liquidity when the market doesn't need it and I will provide liquidity when the market needs it and in so doing, help stabilize the price which is good for merchants and the general bitcoin using public. If I am an unsuccessful trader, I will be giving money to the people who stabilize bitcoin. One has to appreciate the genius of Satoshi for getting the incentives right.

What you are saying kind of sounds like bullshit b/c you can learn day trading by using 1 BTC or less....

However, I suppose that if you are using 100BTC or more, then the dynamics may be a little bit different... possibly?

You are NOT really going to make any dents on the bitcoin ecosystem with 100BTC - though yeah, you may be working with a bit more than that; however, I really would think that a guy would need more than 1000 BTC to be a baby whale.. or maybe like a big fish... and maybe whales are generally in the 2,500 BTC and above category? You do NOT really claim to be any kind of whale or even a big fish.. only one that is contributing in some way to the BTC ecosystem... Yeah.. right.. maybe? Huh

What a saga... !!!! Probably, you are getting tired of some of us attempting to analyze your situation.. and maybe you will be having another meltdown, soon? Tongue

Quote from: octaft on April 06, 2014, 05:09:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 06, 2014, 02:39:01 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on April 06, 2014, 01:52:07 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 06, 2014, 01:13:42 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on April 06, 2014, 12:52:06 AM

Martingale trading is a bulletproof strat

Only if you have an infinite line, infinite time, snd a random market. I.e. never. But it does form an important part of a balanced algo.

The martingale fallacy is based on the fact that the human brain is not easily fathoming the speed with which an exponential function increases. You have to use your left brain for that, which takes some thought work.

Edit: And you also have to understand the limit of your betting power, and the limit for bets in the casino.

Edit2: And to top it up: Your only gain in the end, if you win before the limits, is the size of your first bet. So if you start low, to be able to go on for a large number of rounds, your win is also low. If you start a martingale series with a one dollar bet, and lose many times, you could end up putting thousands on the table, and if you win in the end, your gain is one dollar, the size of the first bet.

A Martingale strategy works, so long as the win amount is equal to the bet and the odds are 50/50. With a 1 dollar bet, you are very likely to win your 1 back dollar bet back before you get anywhere near $1000. If the odds are 50/50, then you would have to lose 7 times in a row, to reach into the $100 arena... highly unlikely if the odds truly are 50/50.. the trick in that regard is making sure that you do NOT miscalculate the odds.

A Martingale strategy does NOT work. If you do the math, you will find you will lose money long-term unless you have infinite funds and no betting limits. Yes, it's unlikely that you will lose 10 times in a row or whatever, but when you do you are wiped out for an enormous amount of money, and it's that scenario which makes you lose money on the strategy long-term.

You have to keep doubling and betting until you win. It is mathematically proven at least to be a break even strategy as long as the odds are exactly 50/50 like flipping a coin or black and red on a roulette wheel... so long as there are NO betting limitations. Your point is that a guy would run out of money sooner or later, but overall it is at least a break even strategy... and pretty unlikely that a guy or gal would lose more than 10 times in a row.

You incorporated a 10 time betting limit into your description.. which is NOT part of the theory.. and pretty unlikely.. less than 1 in a 1,000 chance of losing 10 times in a row (actually it is a 1 in 1,024.00262 chance of losing that many times in a row)...

Anyhow, if we use the $1 scenario, the odds are that you would have won more than a thousand by the time you lose 10 in a row.... which if you lose 10 in a row, you are invested $1,023 at that point in time. If you lose one more time (11 times), then you are invested $2039, (1/2048.00524 chance). Anyhow.. sooner or later, you are going to win back your dollar, so long as you keep doubling your bet each time.. it's inevitable.. so long as the odds are 50/50.

Of course, if you do reach that unlucky losing streak of 10 in a row, then you gotta find the capital from somewhere to keep betting and doubling the bet again.. otherwise you will lock in your losses.

The problem, that I already mentioned, is that sometimes peeps will misunderstand or misread the odds or they will accept a betting limit or will deviate from the exact application of doubling the bet each time that you lose, until you win..

After you win, then you start over at $1 again.

Of course, if you were going to start out with $10 or $100, then you would need 10x or 100x more capital, in the event you entered a long losing streak... but it is almost guaranteed that you will NOT lose 10 times in a row, unless the odds really are NOT 50/50.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 06, 2014, 05:16:39 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 06, 2014, 04:51:34 AM

sure you mean would have realized a loss if they sold during q1 and early q2 2014? I'll perhaps sell this coin I bought in nov if the price is right.

The sale date is fixed (April 01, 2014) and the price too (480 USD/BTC for the red line). The horizontal axis is when the coins were bought.

By selling at that price and date, one would have made a profit only if one bought before mid-November.

However, the plot considers only mean (L+H)/2 daily prices. There were a few "golden windows of opportunity" when the price momentarily went lower than 480 USD/BTC. (For example, 400 on Feb/25, and ~435 on Mar/30--31). People who bought at those prices and sold on Apr/01 at 480 USD would have achieved a fairly large ROI per year.

I would NOT be so foolish as to have bet in December 2013 during an exorbitant price increase and to expect to cash out in the next few months or even in the next year or two at a profit... .. just does NOT make any sense to pick such an opportunistic time to suggest that people are losers in BTC b/c they chose to start investing after or near the end of a bubble.... Yes there are people who invest without foresight and lose money... but that is NOT a very logical investment strategy to begin at the end of a exorbitant price rise and to expect profits in the short term.

Quote from: octaft on April 06, 2014, 06:36:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 06, 2014, 06:21:53 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 06, 2014, 05:09:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 06, 2014, 02:39:01 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on April 06, 2014, 01:52:07 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 06, 2014, 01:13:42 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on April 06, 2014, 12:52:06 AM

Martingale trading is a bulletproof strat

Only if you have an infinite line, infinite time, snd a random market. I.e. never. But it does form an important part of a balanced algo.

The martingale fallacy is based on the fact that the human brain is not easily fathoming the speed with which an exponential function increases. You have to use your left brain for that, which takes some thought work.

Edit: And you also have to understand the limit of your betting power, and the limit for bets in the casino.

Edit2: And to top it up: Your only gain in the end, if you win before the limits, is the size of your first bet. So if you start low, to be able to go on for a large number of rounds, your win is also low. If you start a martingale series with a one dollar bet, and lose many times, you could end up putting thousands on the table, and if you win in the end, your gain is one dollar, the size of the first bet.

A Martingale strategy works, so long as the win amount is equal to the bet and the odds are 50/50. With a 1 dollar bet, you are very likely to win your 1 back dollar bet back before you get anywhere near $1000. If the odds are 50/50, then you would have to lose 7 times in a row, to reach into the $100 arena... highly unlikely if the odds truly are 50/50.. the trick in that regard is making sure that you do NOT miscalculate the odds.

A Martingale strategy does NOT work. If you do the math, you will find you will lose money long-term unless you have infinite funds and no betting limits. Yes, it's unlikely that you will lose 10 times in a row or whatever, but when you do you are wiped out for an enormous amount of money, and it's that scenario which makes you lose money on the strategy long-term.

You have to keep doubling and betting until you win. It is mathematically proven at least to be a break even strategy as long as the odds are exactly 50/50 like flipping a coin or black and red on a roulette wheel... so long as there are NO betting limitations. Your point is that a guy would run out of money sooner or later, but overall it is at least a break even strategy... and pretty unlikely that a guy or gal would lose more than 10 times in a row.

You incorporated a 10 time betting limit into your description.. which is NOT part of the theory.. and pretty unlikely.. less than 1 in a 1,000 chance of losing 10 times in a row (actually it is a 1 in 1,024.00262 chance of losing that many times in a row)...

Anyhow, if we use the $1 scenario, the odds are that you would have won more than a thousand by the time you lose 10 in a row.... which if you lose 10 in a row, you are invested $1,023 at that point in time. If you lose one more time (11 times), then you are invested $2039, (1/2048.00524 chance). Anyhow.. sooner or later, you are going to win back your dollar, so long as you keep doubling your bet each time.. it's inevitable.. so long as the odds are 50/50.

Of course, if you do reach that unlucky losing streak of 10 in a row, then you gotta find the capital from somewhere to keep betting and doubling the bet again.. otherwise you will lock in your losses.

The problem, that I already mentioned, is that sometimes peeps will misunderstand or misread the odds or they will accept a betting limit or will deviate from the exact application of doubling the bet each time that you lose, until you win..

After you win, then you start over at $1 again.

Of course, if you were going to start out with $10 or $100, then you would need 10x or 100x more capital, in the event you entered a long losing streak... but it is almost guaranteed that you will NOT lose 10 times in a row, unless the odds really are NOT 50/50.

Well I am assuming you are talking about in a casino, since nobody in their right mind is going to let you keep doubling your bet on something until you win when the bet is break even. Martingales used in casinos lose just as much as any other strategy, but a lot quicker because you are often risking a lot more money per bet by the end of it. I said 10x because, starting at $1 (which most casinos won't even let you do), after about 8-10 losses you will hit the betting limit.

Assuming you are playing true 50-50's, with infinite bankroll and no betting limits, yes you will break even. But you will also break even betting $5 each time in that scenario, so why go bonkers with doubling your bet?

As for roulette, you DO realize that that is not a 50-50, right? The 0 (and sometimes 00) screw your odds and give the casino their edge on that bet. It has to be a TRUE 50-50 to break even, and if it's a true 50-50 (and even money bets as well), you will break even long term no matter what.

I have never employed it, and I do NOT usually play games of chance (or gamble in that kind of direction) but I suppose that you would do better with a martingales strategy b/c you would cash out, long before you hit those odd ball long negative streak scenarios. .. but yes, you are correct that no one (or casino) is going to let you double from $1 to $500 at one table.. just so you can win back your initial investment... but some online gambling sites may be more permissive.

I don't really know too much about this, except posters here are claiming to employ such strategies or variants of such. Anyhow, if you have to play 1000 times before you hit the 10 losses in a row scenario, then on other days, you are going to be taking home dough, no? You may be correct in the end, though that there are some better strategies that can be employed to ensure winning with less risk or effort.

Quote from: greenlion on April 06, 2014, 06:42:56 AM

The Martingale "system" has no sound rational basis to even be called a system in the first place, because it does not actually do anything statistically that in any way improves outcome of any arbitrary series of fixed bets.

All the Martingale system actually does is play psychological games with your perception of wins and losses, and appeals to a misguided sense that the individual bets are somehow not statistically-independent events.

The "system" does account for them being statistically-independent events, but allows a way to systematize so you never walk away from the table at a loss b/c sooner or later you are going to be successful and win back all losses, plus the additional 1 unit bet that you started with.

Quote from: CoinDox on April 06, 2014, 06:44:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 06, 2014, 06:21:53 AM

You have to keep doubling and betting until you win. It is mathematically proven at least to be a break even strategy as long as the odds are exactly 50/50 like flipping a coin or black and red on a roulette wheel... so long as there are NO betting limitations. Your point is that a guy would run out of money sooner or later, but overall it is at least a break even strategy... and pretty unlikely that a guy or gal would lose more than 10 times in a row.

You incorporated a 10 time betting limit into your description.. which is NOT part of the theory.. and pretty unlikely.. less than 1 in a 1,000 chance of losing 10 times in a row (actually it is a 1 in 1,024.00262 chance of losing that many times in a row)...

Anyhow, if we use the $1 scenario, the odds are that you would have won more than a thousand by the time you lose 10 in a row.... which if you lose 10 in a row, you are invested $1,023 at that point in time. If you lose one more time (11 times), then you are invested $2039, (1/2048.00524 chance). Anyhow.. sooner or later, you are going to win back your dollar, so long as you keep doubling your bet each time.. it's inevitable.. so long as the odds are 50/50.

Of course, if you do reach that unlucky losing streak of 10 in a row, then you gotta find the capital from somewhere to keep betting and doubling the bet again.. otherwise you will lock in your losses.

The problem, that I already mentioned, is that sometimes peeps will misunderstand or misread the odds or they will accept a betting limit or will deviate from the exact application of doubling the bet each time that you lose, until you win..

After you win, then you start over at $1 again.

Of course, if you were going to start out with $10 or $100, then you would need 10x or 100x more capital, in the event you entered a long losing streak... but it is almost guaranteed that you will NOT lose 10 times in a row, unless the odds really are NOT 50/50.

Here is a spreadsheet if anyone is interested http://imgur.com/JuLDf9H. I made it back when I tried the strategy on Prime dice. After about 50,000 trials on Automated mode it had earned less than it took electricity to run it so long. I think the most times I ever lost was 16 times in a row.

I can post the full file if anyone is interested in playing around with it.

Wow... I was thinking that maybe it would have been rigged... b/c I was also thinking that in real world application, you would probably come out ahead a little bit, in the long run.

Quote from: octaft on April 06, 2014, 06:45:27 AM

Quote from: greenlion on April 06, 2014, 06:42:56 AM

The Martingale "system" has no sound rational basis to even be called a system in the first place, because it does not actually do anything statistically that in any way improves outcome of any arbitrary series of fixed bets.

All the Martingale system actually does is play psychological games with your perception of wins and losses, and appeals to a misguided sense that the individual bets are somehow not statistically-independent events.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure casinos love the Martingale, since it gets you betting more and more on losing bets.

They do NOT like any system that may be employed by any gambler in which the gambler walks away with 1 satoshi more than he started with.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 06, 2014, 06:45:55 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 06, 2014, 06:24:11 AM

.. just does NOT make any sense to pick such an opportunistic time to suggest that people are losers in BTC b/c they chose to start investing after or near the end of a bubble....

OK, but I am not suggesting anything, that is just data.

The sale date (Apr/01) was not "picked"; it is basically "today", except that the datafile I had at hand was collected a few days ago. I did this same plot a couple of months ago, and I may do it again in a month or so, in both cases using the then-current date and price.

I was NOT trying to accuse you of anything.

Nonetheless, I stand by my assertion that the mindset and the reasoning and motivations of investors are going to differ depending upon when they got in and their time-line expectations. So in that regard, there is NO loss or gain if the investment is still in its early stages - before the running of the timeline. Even if someone invested one or two years ago, you could give an "on paper" assessment of the current status of his/her investment, but if, for example, s/he invested for a 10-year period (absent some catastrophic need to draw upon funds or change in the asset), then neither the losses or gains have been realized and they are only "in-theory."

Surely, there still can be some value to your description of the current status of BTC portfolios... but need to be considered with a grain of context variability.

Quote from: greenlion on April 06, 2014, 06:48:28 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 06, 2014, 06:21:53 AM

You have to keep doubling and betting until you win. It is mathematically proven at least to be a break even strategy as long as the odds are exactly 50/50 like flipping a coin or black and red on a roulette wheel... so long as there are NO betting limitations. Your point is that a guy would run out of money sooner or later, but overall it is at least a break even strategy... and pretty unlikely that a guy or gal would lose more than 10 times in a row.

ALL bet distributions/"strategies" are mathematically "proven" to be break even under these conditions, because of the very nature of how multiplication and addition work in the first place.

I would think that if a person is in control of it.. then s/he would always be able to ensure that s/he walks away at a profit... and then it becomes a sure thing that s/he would make at least that $1 of initial bet amount.

Quote from: virtualfaqs on April 06, 2014, 06:53:02 AM

Quote from: greenlion on April 06, 2014, 06:48:28 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 06, 2014, 06:21:53 AM

You have to keep doubling and betting until you win. It is mathematically proven at least to be a break even strategy as long as the odds are exactly 50/50 like flipping a coin or black and red on a roulette wheel... so long as there are NO betting limitations. Your point is that a guy would run out of money sooner or later, but overall it is at least a break even strategy... and pretty unlikely that a guy or gal would lose more than 10 times in a row.

ALL bet distributions/"strategies" are mathematically "proven" to be break even under these conditions, because of the very nature of how multiplication and addition work in the first place.

Like you said betting limitations and the fact there's no 50/50 bet at Casinos. I think the closest is Craps with 100x odds and 2 deck Black Jack. There used to be a few Pai Gow tables that had no commission with huge match play coupons. That was a total blast until they ran out of business. Embarrassed

So, maybe we are engaging in a form of speculative futility with few real world application(s)... ... Unless we think that we are projecting such 50/50 odds in the BTC trading arena. Sometimes we are NOT sure about what to do, and we may calculate the odds to be 50/50.. we may error.. but it may be the best that we can do, under the circumstances.

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on April 06, 2014, 07:54:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 06, 2014, 07:21:01 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 06, 2014, 06:45:27 AM

Quote from: greenlion on April 06, 2014, 06:42:56 AM

The Martingale "system" has no sound rational basis to even be called a system in the first place, because it does not actually do anything statistically that in any way improves outcome of any arbitrary series of fixed bets.

All the Martingale system actually does is play psychological games with your perception of wins and losses, and appeals to a misguided sense that the individual bets are somehow not statistically-independent events.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure casinos love the Martingale, since it gets you betting more and more on losing bets.

They do NOT like any system that may be employed by any gambler in which the gambler walks away with 1 satoshi more than he started with.

Martingale doesn't change the expected return of a bet. It only results in a large probability of a small win, and a small probability of a big loss. The average expected return stays the same. Casino's won't mind as long as they can say stop when the betting amount gets too high.

The starting unit can be any unit.. you can start at $100.... and each time you win you start again at $100.. so then you are accumulating $100 for each series.. yes, you may have a 7 time losing streak that results in bets of $6,400.. but that would be rare.. you are mostly going to stay in the $100 to $1600 territory... and pocket $100 each time... and yes, if you go there starting at $100, then you will likely need to bring a pretty big bankroll in the unlikely event of a losing streak of 10 that brings you to the $51,200 bet... that way it may be better to start with a $1 or a $2 or maybe at most a $10 bet...just in case you have a prolonged negative streak.

Quote from: chilin_dude on April 06, 2014, 09:15:14 AM

Whenever i think this thread can't get any more retarded it does. The fact that so many people using large amounts of money to buy/sell bitcoins that don't understand the concept of EV is mind-blowing.

Explain the bare essence then.

By EV, I expect you mean expected value?

I see various forms of dollar cost averaging going on with various expectations that Bitcoin will acquire some additional value based on taking market share from remittances, store of value, currencies and hedging against irresponsible monetary policies. There are other motivations and theories as well, including various forms of speculation on price direction based on charts and lines.

Any special perspective or insight you can drop upon us cave dwellers?

Quote from: Erdogan on April 06, 2014, 10:06:09 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 06, 2014, 09:48:17 AM

Quote from: chilin_dude on April 06, 2014, 09:15:14 AM

Whenever i think this thread can't get any more retarded it does. The fact that so many people using large amounts of money to buy/sell bitcoins that don't understand the concept of EV is mind-blowing.

Explain the bare essence then.

By EV, I expect you mean expected value?

I see various forms of dollar cost averaging going on with various expectations that Bitcoin will acquire some additional value based on taking market share from remittances, store of value, currencies and hedging against irresponsible monetary policies. There are other motivations and theories as well, including various forms of speculation on price direction based on charts and lines.

Any special perspective or insight you can drop upon us cave dwellers?

It could also be exposed value. The fact that so many people using seldom used, unexplained abbreviations in this thread, is mind-blowing.

Yeah.... I really do NOT mind constructive criticisms or pointing out potential flawed logic, b/c maybe we could learn from that. However, bare mudslinging... seems to have NO real purpose - except to maybe just to make the poster feel good for a short time.

Also, even throwing out a term, such as exposed value, may need to be explained in a context by use of an example. exposed value would likely have something to do with risk taking - but investors vary a lot in this regard NOT only in their risk aversion but their knowledge or even desire to recognize risk. I'm sure mine differs from yours for example.. but if we talked over our decision-making and preferences, we would likely be more informed thereafter about how to proceed with our future risk allocation(s).

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 06, 2014, 01:58:17 PM

Four days volume descending like a staircase. You'd think there would be a battle over these coins running a $15 discount over last night,>60% discount from the ATH. The only demand I see is people like me waiting to buy back the same coins we dumped 12 hours ago.

There are other people like you... Huh

OM F'ng G!!!

Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 01:09:09 AM

Quote from: chromosoma on April 07, 2014, 12:59:32 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 12:57:27 AM

Quote from: chromosoma on April 07, 2014, 12:51:26 AM

someone is playing god and manipulating bitcoin market right now.=)

agreed. I think they have been playing it for a long time though.

yeah, but BTC-e charts i soooo artificial, likely coused by one or few persons playing in team:)

100% agree.

Not even sure it's people. It feels like it's something bigger like a corporation, hedge fund, or some government with unlimited funds.

maybe there are more than 13 million BTC out there, and we're all getting scammed to hell.

3 black crows ! huobi

Well, we already know that once BTC is off of the blockchain and the transactions are taking place off of the blockchain, then much manipulation is possible, including increasing the number of BTC that are supposedly in existence within that sphere. Gox seemed to have been example of precisely that b/c Gox seemed to have been knowingly and willingly trading with BTC that they knew they did NOT have. Will be interesting if anyone is convicted for any crimes (such as fraud) concerning that behavior.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 07, 2014, 01:56:29 AM

What does "manipulation" even mean to you? You think you have some God given right to buy low and sell high? It is likely big players are buying and selling back to themselves hoping to ignite a rally or spark a panic that they can take advantage of, but you can just as easily skim off of them by betting against the signal. Or bet with it and ride the trend if you want. That's not manipulation. That's how free marker price discovery works. Shaking out the weak hands.

Nobody is front running your buy or sell order. Nobody is shorting coins that don't exist. Even if you suspected as much, all you would have to do is go to another exchange. By bitching about manipulation, all you are telling me is that you can't hack this game and should go away. If you think you have an edge in some way, bet on it and I won't call you a manipulator. If you don't think you have an edge, find one or just go away. The free market's a jungle and you sound like you'd be happier in a zoo.

If you are referring to me (since my post using the term "manipulation" is immediately preceding your quasi-incomprehensible rant of a post), I will entertain you with a brief response.

First: why is it that you seem to have some kind of cork up your ass and you seem to want to argue... Maybe you have a little time on your hands, since the market is NOT moving too much?

Second: You seem to either to have NOT read my post, or you are getting it all out of context. Surely, there are a lot of ways to discuss manipulation, and I have used the word in a variety of ways in the past. In my above post, I used the term manipulation to refer to what seems to have been a real dynamic concerning what was going on with GOX. In reality, even today, after a couple of months of their being shut down, the evidence in the public is fairly unclear about what was going on at GOX; however, there seems to be considerable consensus around the point that GOX was engaged in some form of manipulation of the quantity of BTC that they had and the quantity of BTC that they were allowing to be traded. In that regard, if those BTC do NOT exist then GOX should NOT have been allowing them to be traded. Surely some ambiguity whether they broke any laws or NOT, but there is a certain amount of risk that takes place when owners of BTC entrust their BTC to a third party, outside of the blockchain. I believe that there are a variety of solutions that are being considered and worked on in order to allow for decentralized exchanges... in order that owners of BTC would NOT have to entrust their BTC to third parties (at least NOT as much as what seems to be taking place under centralized exchange systems).

Third: your reference to other kinds of manipulation that may be taking place by whales on exchanges were NOT a part of my earlier post, so it seems to be a rant without any immediate foundation. Although I have brought up that subject in previous posts, i have NOT mentioned it in recent posts. If you want to go down that avenue, then probably we need a context, rather than you merely creating some kind of lack of context argument that is difficult to pinpoint b/c it seems to be a fiction of your own creation, even though definitely it is a worthy topic.

Fourth: Your several times retort about wanting to me to go away is a little bit hilarious - like you are all emotional about some infliction that I supposedly caused.. and the solution is that I should supposedly go away. This thread should be big enough for all of us, no? I just cannot agree that I am going to only post items that are within your tolerance and acceptance.. or that my BTC investment perspective is sufficiently aligned with your values, if you have any.. they have been difficult to pinpoint recently.

Fifth: If there is some personal matter that you want to discuss, then I am open to PM.... Don't want to bore folks here with matters that may end up having some personal concerns about style or courtesy or whatever...

I have a couple more points, but I will save them for later, if needed... Hopefully, my points above are sufficient to respond to your concerns and to help to clarify matters to some extent.

Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 02:14:11 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 07, 2014, 01:50:21 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 01:09:09 AM

Quote from: chromosoma on April 07, 2014, 12:59:32 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 12:57:27 AM

Quote from: chromosoma on April 07, 2014, 12:51:26 AM

someone is playing god and manipulating bitcoin market right now.=)

agreed. I think they have been playing it for a long time though.

yeah, but BTC-e charts i soooo artificial, likely coused by one or few persons playing in team:)

100% agree.

Not even sure it's people. It feels like it's something bigger like a corporation, hedge fund, or some government with unlimited funds.

maybe there are more than 13 million BTC out there, and we're all getting scammed to hell.

3 black crows ! huobi

Well, we already know that once BTC is off of the blockchain and the transactions are taking place off of the blockchain, then much manipulation is possible, including increasing the number of BTC that are supposedly in existence within that sphere. Gox seemed to have been example of precisely that b/c Gox seemed to have been knowingly and willingly trading with BTC that they knew they did NOT have. Will be interesting if anyone is convicted for any crimes (such as fraud) concerning that behavior.

I hope they throw the book at the desert coffee guy.

as for going off the chain. It's very easy, I bet about 10% of other alt coin forum members know how to do it.

just the connect=x.x.x.x (ip address) is needed in the config file, and change the seed node in net.cpp change the p2p port. then recompile, connect with 2 PC's and you can mine getting all the blocks on a different block chain, forked from the original at the point of divergence.

Not that, that will get you anywhere, but it just shows how easy some stuff is if you mess with the source code.

There will be someone out there, thats cleverer than Gavin Anderson or any other member of the BTC team. It worries me! Bitcoin is still beta! and we are still experimenting...

the forum member Dreamwatcher developed a tool that may save the situation in the future. It's a distribution tool, meaning that bitcoin if needed can be changed into a whole new crypto, and the existing balances can be maintained from the original chain.

He used it effectively on UFC coin when it moved from scrypt hash to Blake256.

Open a new wallet on the new coin, with your old wallet.dat file and your coins magically appear. These guys are so cleaver it's scary.

These are all very good points, yet they are even above and beyond the point that I was making. I was saying that most of the exchanges or even some services like silkroad or some other service allows you to create an account. Thereafter, those transactions within the service are taking place off of the blockchain, and allows for manipulation of how many BTC are being used to employ the services of the business.. and whether they even have as many BTC as customers have given to them. And, that causes a manipulation of potentially creating more than 21 million BTC b/c these kinds of entities could be engaging in a form of fractional reserve... .and we may NOT be able to know or detect such fractional reserve practices until we want to get our coins from them (or everyone wants their coins).

Quote from: chessnut on April 07, 2014, 02:36:08 AM

Quote from: byronbb on April 07, 2014, 02:25:33 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 07, 2014, 02:05:22 AM

^^ exactly.

If you can see clearly the manipulation, what's the problem? nobody has any special advantages in a zero sum game.

Well before the SEC there were lots of things big traders were doing that eventually became illegal, but maybe your point still stands.

The government is responsible for consumer protection. If nobody wants manipulation in stock markets, commodity markets etc... then let democracy have its way. But in bitcoin land, well, we asked for freedom, and hey..... we got it! and it's great. but unfortunately manipulation cannot be dealt with in the protocol. now people will need to learn for once how to deal with their problems them selves.

Various solutions are evolving regarding this wild-wild west, and maybe in time, there will be decentralized solutions that solve some of the problems of people running off with coins, for example... Hopefully!!! I know during innovation stages, there are going to be risks.. but I would hate to lose all my coins b/c some smart 16 year old figured out a way to hack into my wallet or to divert my transaction or something like that.

Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 02:51:28 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 07, 2014, 02:40:50 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 02:14:11 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 07, 2014, 01:50:21 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 01:09:09 AM

Quote from: chromosoma on April 07, 2014, 12:59:32 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 12:57:27 AM

Quote from: chromosoma on April 07, 2014, 12:51:26 AM

someone is playing god and manipulating bitcoin market right now.=)

agreed. I think they have been playing it for a long time though.

yeah, but BTC-e charts i soooo artificial, likely coused by one or few persons playing in team:)

100% agree.

Not even sure it's people. It feels like it's something bigger like a corporation, hedge fund, or some government with unlimited funds.

maybe there are more than 13 million BTC out there, and we're all getting scammed to hell.

3 black crows ! huobi

Well, we already know that once BTC is off of the blockchain and the transactions are taking place off of the blockchain, then much manipulation is possible, including increasing the number of BTC that are supposedly in existence within that sphere. Gox seemed to have been example of precisely that b/c Gox seemed to have been knowingly and willingly trading with BTC that they knew they did NOT have. Will be interesting if anyone is convicted for any crimes (such as fraud) concerning that behavior.

I hope they throw the book at the desert coffee guy.

as for going off the chain. It's very easy, I bet about 10% of other alt coin forum members know how to do it.

just the connect=x.x.x.x (ip address) is needed in the config file, and change the seed node in net.cpp change the p2p port. then recompile, connect with 2 PC's and you can mine getting all the blocks on a different block chain, forked from the original at the point of divergence.

Not that, that will get you anywhere, but it just shows how easy some stuff is if you mess with the source code.

There will be someone out there, thats cleverer than Gavin Anderson or any other member of the BTC team. It worries me! Bitcoin is still beta! and we are still experimenting...

the forum member Dreamwatcher developed a tool that may save the situation in the future. It's a distribution tool, meaning that bitcoin if needed can be changed into a whole new crypto, and the existing balances can be maintained from the original chain.

He used it effectively on UFC coin when it moved from scrypt hash to Blake256.

Open a new wallet on the new coin, with your old wallet.dat file and your coins magically appear. These guys are so cleaver it's scary.

These are all very good points, yet they are even above and beyond the point that I was making. I was saying that most of the exchanges or even some services like silkroad or some other service allows you to create an account. Thereafter, those transactions within the service are taking place off of the blockchain, and allows for manipulation of how many BTC are being used to employ the services of the business.. and whether they even have as many BTC as customers have given to them. And, that causes a manipulation of potentially creating more than 21 million BTC b/c these kinds of entities could be engaging in a form of fractional reserve... .and we may NOT be able to know or detect such fractional reserve practices until we want to get our coins from them (or everyone wants their coins).

arrr... yer .. Im with ya now Wink

Yep trading a database number price not actual BTC.

I guess if BTC does survive the next few years, people will move to regulated exchanges. what makes BTC great is also it's weakness.

I believe that your initial point ( I believe it was yours) that I was responding to had something to do with the question about whether we were all being manipulated.. and that there were more coins than we thought (12.5 million or whatever our current quantity is). I suggested that exchanges may be doing this, too.. working outside the original intent of bitcoin and the blockchain.

I doubt that a long term and meaningful solution needs to be regulation or regulated exchanges.. b/c that would likely lead bitcoin back down the slippery slope of fiat money and the whole printing problem.

I am no fricking expert, but I am of the understanding that there are various kinds of decentralized exchange solutions in development, including through mastercoin, and colored coins and Nxt that would potentially address these kinds of exchange issues, so we do NOT have to work off of the blockchain and we do not have to give up our coins to third parties and lack of transparency. Whether these kinds of solutions will be sufficient or solve more problems than they create may be another story.. but it will likely take some time for adoption of these kinds of decentralized solutions. Others here probably can speak much more eloquent to the point than me, that's for sure.

Quote from: octaft on April 07, 2014, 02:54:17 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 07, 2014, 02:43:48 AM

And the griping that rich people have disproportionate influence over your future is infantile. I'd rather have rich people with disproportionate influence than poor people. They are much worse.

If Ayn Rand had a dick, how far down your throat do you think it would be? 3 inches? 4? The whole goddamn 8?

If Ayn Rand had a dick, it would only be 2 inches in total.. .so your hypothetical is giving too much credit. Cheesy

Quote from: aminorex on April 07, 2014, 03:20:41 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 07, 2014, 01:56:29 AM

What does "manipulation" even mean to you?

DDOS'ing the bitcoin protocol, DDOS'ing the forum, the exchanges, spreading false rumors, stealing coins, using stolen funds to push the market. Using other people's computers against their will to attack the network.

Yeah, but what about the example in which an exchange takes your bitcoin and then gambles with them, and then gets into such a hole b/c BTC prices go in one direction while they are betting in another direction, then even though they intended to pay you back, they do NOT have sufficient funds. That is NOT exactly stealing of the coins.. They were borrowing without permission and then they fucked up.. If we give the benefit of the doubt to GOX, that may have been what they were doing. I call it manipulation b/c they are presenting themselves to the public as having all of the coins when they only have less than 25% of the coins. Manipulation?

Quote from: infofront on April 07, 2014, 03:41:33 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 07, 2014, 03:31:21 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 07, 2014, 03:20:41 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 07, 2014, 01:56:29 AM

What does "manipulation" even mean to you?

DDOS'ing the bitcoin protocol, DDOS'ing the forum, the exchanges, spreading false rumors, stealing coins, using stolen funds to push the market. Using other people's computers against their will to attack the network.

Yeah, but what about the example in which an exchange takes your bitcoin and then gambles with them, and then gets into such a hole b/c BTC prices go in one direction while they are betting in another direction, then even though they intended to pay you back, they do NOT have sufficient funds. That is NOT exactly stealing of the coins.. They were borrowing without permission and then they fucked up.. If we give the benefit of the doubt to GOX, that may have been what they were doing. I call it manipulation b/c they are presenting themselves to the public as having all of the coins when they only have less than 25% of the coins. Manipulation?

If you pay someone to hold onto something for safekeeping and they gamble it away and then tell you to go fuck yourself, I'd call that theft.

Yes, I agree that there is a theft component that exists as well. The behavior that I am talking about, though, is that they are holding themselves out as if they have 100% coins, when they really only have less than 25% coins. We could call that fraud and deception, but I think that we could also call it manipulation of the BTC market b/c they are creating the appearance of 650,000 BTC that is NOT in their possession (or they have increased the BTC supply by 650,000 until they are caught with their pants down). I am thinking that is an additional unmentioned form of manipulation.. even though it may have other names as well b/c the conduct overlaps into other areas besides just the projecting that you have 650,000BTC that you do NOT have.

Quote from: TERA on April 07, 2014, 04:36:51 AM

Everyone thinks we're due for a rally now and most people's reasoning includes that there has been a rally every 9 months. "It has happened 4 times, and now it will happen again", right? Well, if you look at a one week candle chart, and you look at the rsi, you will see a divergence in this last rally, indicating that the trend is over. This could be seen all the way back in December.

I thought that rallies were coming less than 9 months apart.. and we were expecting the next one to take place sooner.. though maybe it will take 9 months.. maybe a year... and maybe we will go below $400... I think that it would take stagnation for quite a while here (maybe a month) in the mid $400s to maybe cause enough pressure to get us below $400... NOT saying it is impossible.. but I am somewhat with Chestnut and KFR and Seleme.. and maybe a few other "brainwashed" bulls.. he he he.. in thinking that it is quite unlikely.. even though possible..... but seems like we could get some upward departure at any moment... .. I even have a hard time seeing us get below $430.. b/c it just does NOT seem to wanna go back down there in the last couple of days - including that this should have taken place over the weekend, if it were going to take place.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 07, 2014, 04:37:00 AM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on April 07, 2014, 03:19:46 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 07, 2014, 02:01:39 AM

Especially when those people learn that such scams keep occurring, the lost ~~bitcoins~~ dollars are never recovered, and no one gets punished.

Sounds like Wall Street and modern banking. Lotsa folks continuing to invest there.

Well, perhaps you are right about big banks and high finance. But many smaller fish have been sent to jail for securities fraud and related crimes.

Madoff is in jail, some 25 people related to the Enron and Worldcom scandals were found guilty of criminal charges and some or all went to jail, ....

Perhaps MtGOX can be equated to Lehmann Bros and declared "too big to jail". But people who stole 1/10 as much should not deserve that privilege. Wink

EDIT: typos

Figuring out who is jailed or NOT is far from over... they may have trouble getting Karpeles to appear in the USA.. and then if he does will he be detained.. Maybe he would be, and for that reason, if he has counsel, they probably would be advising him NOT to show up in the USA.... .. And Shrem is really being screwed with and the SRoads guy is in jail, no? They are much more likely to be tough on the bitcoiners, it seems as compared to these cadre of connected wallstreet peeps...... some of the wallstreet peeps go to jail, but there are way too many examples of them NOT going to jail for way larger stealing of various public investor moneys.

Quote from: chessnut on April 07, 2014, 05:34:05 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 07, 2014, 05:23:48 AM

Why are there only two cases and why do you believe that a downwards move from here is the end of bitcoin? It could very well recover in some years time.

I said - the speculative weight will bring it down. all the capital is speculative. 99%. if this asset is not performing in 6 months time, the crash will self perpetuate to zero. by then investors could afford to replace it with a new coin. google could pounce on the opportunity, for example. Ripple (although inferior) might hold the fort until bitcoin is dead.

Currently, there is NO real replacement for bitcoin, and Bitcoin is NOT going to zero any time in the next couple years.. absent some major bug... The mere fact that there may be some issues with China and some other countries interfering with bitcoin will not be enough to push bitcoin down that much.. and.. even in these bearish case scenarios.. maybe we will get some downward trajectory for a more extended period.. but we gotta have some real additional negative news to really drive BTC down into sustainable double digits territory... .... ..

Anyhow, those very negative bearish scenarios seem way too speculative given the current strength of the network building and various strength of bitcoin fundamentals and also the fact that some governments, including the US government have NOT really yet gone on any kind of meaningful attack on bitcoin.. yet....

Quote from: macsga on April 07, 2014, 05:40:38 AM

Just my BTC0.00000002

I wished that we could fix these decimal places.. it is too complicated to count 8-ish decimal places.

For some reason, my brain starts to swim after about 4 decimal places.

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 07, 2014, 06:10:45 AM

bulls and bears in despair.. while the hodlers debate how many coins a stash really needs Cheesy

cheerio carry on market, carry on.

I would like to get to about 100 BTC.. . b/c currently, I only have about 50BTC... Of course, more would be even better, but it is NOT easy to keep setting this money aside.. .. at least for mere mortals, which currently, I am claiming to be a mere mortal.

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 07, 2014, 06:15:56 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 07, 2014, 04:15:51 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 07, 2014, 04:01:58 AM

Would you give up trying to convince everyone that this is the bottom and the reversal is about to happen to a new ATH you clowns. You know very well from these charts that the odds are we are going down even further, below 400, but you're angry because you're stuck in your stubborn HODL position. I guess HODL isn't so glorious now, is it.

... The market has been flat for 9 days despite 'utter disaster', something I expected.... and I assure you, HODL is better than shotr right now. this 'trend' is very vulnerable to a spike into the upper 500s, and 400 is growing stronger every day.

we are in territory for a reversal. I dont see why the odds are that we are going down. Im not going to put too much faith in your macd. and this is not a trend as such, it is a correction.

Why do you bother with this guy? Every post he makes about how we are going down is because of his need to buy cheaper coins. You could basically say he's trolling. There is no point in argueing with him. He can't give you any real reasons why we would go down.

The pot calling the kettle black.. hm?

I thought he (Tera) was a she, and she does seem to give some reasons why she is making such BTC downward trend predictions..... even though I do NOT agree with her, she provides specifics and charts and even talks about some of her experiences.

She does seem to have some logic defying push towards downward trajectory that seems to be in part based on low volume, too.. ... .. I think in the next six months she (tera) will be shown to be wrong in her overall trajectory.. but I am NOT even so confident that she will be wrong to make any kind of bet of money upon it and against her... ON the other hand, with you, shroomskit, I was confident to bet against your various projections.. that we would be below $350 by this monday or alternatively that we would be below $350 within the next two weeks... that was truly a bet that seemed, a the time, worth taking b/c it was pure pie in the sky...... but NOW you seem to be taking a different view, for some reason?

Quote from: sidhujag on April 07, 2014, 07:02:42 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 07, 2014, 05:34:05 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 07, 2014, 05:23:48 AM

Why are there only two cases and why do you believe that a downwards move from here is the end of bitcoin? It could very well recover in some years time.

I said - the speculative weight will bring it down. all the capital is speculative. 99%. if this asset is not performing in 6 months time, the crash will self perpetuate to zero. by then investors could afford to replace it with a new coin. google could pounce on the opportunity, for example. Ripple (although inferior) might hold the fort until bitcoin is dead.

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

I never heard of Notary being able to increase BTC prices... how so? Why would you need a certain amount of BTC to perform notary? I can see remittances causing a very high demand for BTC.. b/c let's say you want to transfer 1000 dollars from one country to another. .. you purchase the appropriate amount of BTC and perform the transmission.. and it could be that the dollars would be in BTC for a while.. before it can be used again.. that creates value.. and maybe the same BTC can be used several times in a 24 hour period to transfer value to and from various parts of the world.. that causes BTC prices to increase. A notary is an administration function.. how would that create value.. could do it with 1 satoshi.. no? can you explain?

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on April 07, 2014, 07:15:24 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 07, 2014, 04:01:58 AM

Would you give up trying to convince everyone that this is the bottom and the reversal is about to happen to a new ATH you clowns. You know very well from these charts that the odds are we are going down even further, below 400, but you're angry because you're stuck in your stubborn HODL position. I guess HODL isn't so glorious now, is it.

I used to enjoy your TA posts, but ever since you turned bear they've gotten so nasty and bitter, that they just make me cringe Sad

It makes me wonder, really, whether posters are being genuine and non-biased when they are transforming from bearish to bullish without really putting their transformation in a convincing argument.... and then when they seem to be throwing out mudslinging and calling names to peeps with an alternative view.. ... Makes it seem as if there may be some ulterior motive at work.

Quote from: chessnut on April 07, 2014, 07:16:19 AM

Quote from: sidhujag on April 07, 2014, 07:02:42 AM

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

in theory, it has huge intrinsic value. but it needs the infrastructure, which it doesn't have right now. I cant think of a single use of bitcoin that can support a price of more than, say, $50 today. speculators exiting the market would crush that price support.

Common Chestnut... YOU are converting into a bear too? We really must be due for a turn around any time soon.. Maybe you should call us remaining quasi-bulls a few names too and threaten us? he he he Grin

Quote from: MahaRamana on April 07, 2014, 07:47:37 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 07, 2014, 07:16:19 AM

Quote from: sidhujag on April 07, 2014, 07:02:42 AM

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

in theory, it has huge intrinsic value. but it needs the infrastructure, which it doesn't have right now. I cant think of a single use of bitcoin that can support a price of more than, say, $50 today. speculators exiting the market would crush that price support.

All speculators exiting at the same time would require that everyone recognizes at the same time that bitcoin has no value whatsoever. Of course 50 USD would be crushed. The probability of that happening right now is close to 0.
Millions of USD are being invested by angel investors in the infrastructure right now, hundreds of ATM are being planned and installed. The money is not going in the bitcoin for now but in its infrastructure.
When bitcoin price is going up, it increases the relative return on capital on companies and infrastructure investment as compared to direct bitcoin investment. Which means more interesting to invest in infrastructure. As the money is going to infrastructure, it is not going in BTC anymore which is depressing the price while investments are being made in infrastructure (current situation).

The last bull run has triggered massive investment decisions in the startups and infrastructure. This money is going "in" bitcoin but not affecting the BTC price. Yet.

That seems like a very good point.. and it could even allow for BTC price stagnation for an additional 6 months or so from today... but sooner or later, as you seem to be implying, we are going to get some transference of focus from infrastructure towards the acquisition of BTC to facilitate and publicize the use of these various infrastructure pieces.. which will likely cause considerable demand for bitcoins and fractions thereof.. (satoshis)

Quote from: Zule on April 07, 2014, 08:33:48 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on April 07, 2014, 08:30:12 AM

Quote from: fonzie on April 07, 2014, 08:17:56 AM

Quote from: thefunkybits on April 07, 2014, 08:06:02 AM

holy shit boys....500 BTC sell wall on BFX eaten!

Seller buys his own ask wall in one bit, to enleash bullish sentiment, puts a few small asks (20-40BTC) up afterwards that are bought from the "pigs" . Useful strategy in a low volume market when someone wants to get rid of coins.

And loses a few thousand in fees, hardly worth it really...

Im afraid fonzie is right about this, it happends, i saw it few times. Guessing some have special fee discounts, close to zero type, esp on stamp, Ive seen same amount traded back and forth several times back and forth.

There could be some special fee arrangements for "friends" and "relatives" of exchange owners... That's an additional problem with some of these exchanges in which we cannot really be sure if they are or the extent to which they may have rules that apply to some groups that do NOT apply to other groups. How wide spread is difficult to really know for sure.

Quote from: mooncake on April 07, 2014, 08:37:06 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 07, 2014, 08:32:20 AM

I would like to get to about 100 BTC.. . b/c currently, I only have about 50BTC... Of course, more would be even better, but it is NOT easy to keep setting this money aside.. .. at least for mere mortals, which currently, I am claiming to be a mere mortal.

50 BTC is enough to move down the price by 5 USD. Grin

I could be a FLASH IN THE PAN, BIG FISH, if I were to muster all my resources and blow my wadd in one shot.. he he he.. .. NOT gonna do it though.. I am HODLin and BUY, BUY, BUYin to the extent that I can muster reasonable amounts of fiat and attempt to predict the lowest possible price points.. If we stay stagnant like this in the next couple of months, I may be able to gather enough fiat to buy another 3-7 BTC.. maybe? I am NOT so confident as to believe in leveraging.... .. NOT at the moment... and as I write this response... (Generally, I am NOT an emotional investor, so I do NOT change my strategy too much based on transient feelings).

Quote from: fonzie on April 07, 2014, 09:02:30 AM

@JayJuanGee

The situation is not as bad as it looks. Almost 31.5% are still somewhat bullish in this forum.

When China is out of the game what do you think in which range will we be tradin for months after that?
5-85$    - 9 (8.3%)
85$-140$    - 8 (7.4%)
140$-180$    - 6 (5.6%)
180$-250$    - 5 (4.6%)
250$-306$    - 14 (13%)
306$-400$    - 22 (20.4%)
400$-450$ (unrealistic option)    - 14 (13%)
450$-480$ (delusional option)    - 20 (18.5%)
0$ GAME OVER (igorr option)    - 6 (5.6%)
-100$    - 4 (3.7%)

Do you have a link for that survey? And, where is the $480 and above option?

And, the central assumption of the poll seems to be bad, too. China will NEVER be completely out of the BTC game.. you don't just shut off China like Mt. Gox.. it is NOT exactly the same as GOX.. and you cannot really shut the chinese off.. those facts do NOT really exist in the current situation. Even GOX is NOT completely out of the BTC game yet.. b/c we are still getting fall out and I am sure GOX will continue to provide a certain amount of FUD and drama.. even though the GOX situation has largely been contained.

Quote from: chessnut on April 07, 2014, 09:04:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 07, 2014, 08:56:59 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 07, 2014, 07:16:19 AM

Quote from: sidhujag on April 07, 2014, 07:02:42 AM

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

in theory, it has huge intrinsic value. but it needs the infrastructure, which it doesn't have right now. I cant think of a single use of bitcoin that can support a price of more than, say, $50 today. speculators exiting the market would crush that price support.

Common Chestnut... YOU are converting into a bear too? We really must be due for a turn around any time soon.. Maybe you should call us remaining quasi-bulls a few names too and threaten us? he he he Grin

NO IM NOT! LOL! I got bull fever baby!

I said just a bit earlier, I was discussing a hypothetical bear situation with TERA. I dont believe that this is the case however.

Yeah.. I was thinking that you may have gone delusional for a brief period.. Maybe took some acid or some psychedelic mushrooms and then posted.. ? he he he Cheesy

Quote from: fonzie on April 07, 2014, 09:27:16 AM

Oh God, i just checked the amount of my posts and it says 1540, that´s depressing, really.
Well 4 more weeks and i´ll be gone.

I did NOT know you were suicidal? Grin

Seemed like you were having so much fun with you FUD making.

Quote from: dreamspark on April 07, 2014, 09:41:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 07, 2014, 09:34:18 AM

Quote from: fonzie on April 07, 2014, 09:02:30 AM

@JayJuanGee

The situation is not as bad as it looks. Almost 31.5% are still somewhat bullish in this forum.

When China is out of the game what do you think in which range will we be tradin for months after that?
5-85$    - 9 (8.3%)
85$-140$    - 8 (7.4%)
140$-180$    - 6 (5.6%)
180$-250$    - 5 (4.6%)
250$-306$    - 14 (13%)
306$-400$    - 22 (20.4%)
400$-450$ (unrealistic option)    - 14 (13%)
450$-480$ (delusional option)    - 20 (18.5%)
0$ GAME OVER (igorr option)    - 6 (5.6%)
-100$    - 4 (3.7%)

Do you have a link for that survey? And, where is the $480 and above option?

And, the central assumption of the poll seems to be bad, too. China will NEVER be completely out of the BTC game.. you don't just shut off China like Mt. Gox.. it is NOT exactly the same as GOX.. and you cannot really shut the chinese off.. those facts do NOT really exist in the current situation. Even GOX is NOT completely out of the BTC game yet.. b/c we are still getting fall out and I am sure GOX will continue to provide a certain amount of FUD and drama.. even though the GOX situation has largely been contained.

It was his own survey in his own thread, I think that adequately answers your questions lol

It is quite strange that he would even be able to get more than 100 responses. Shocked

It may be that some people do have some charitable sense of humor, even with playing around with polls that seem ill-conceived and likely NOT to be used for non-FUD purposes. Undecided

Quote from: p0peji on April 07, 2014, 09:43:29 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 07, 2014, 09:42:18 AM

Quote from: fonzie on April 07, 2014, 09:27:16 AM

Oh God, i just checked the amount of my posts and it says 1540, that´s depressing, really.
Well 4 more weeks and i´ll be gone.

I did NOT know you were suicidal? Grin

Seemed like you were having so much fun with you FUD making.

The bulls on this thread will be in 4 weeks.

OM F'n G!!!!!!!

What's gonna happen?

I better sell my BTC now while I can still get $455-ish for each of my BTC. Everyone SELL, SELL, SELL!!!!! Something bad is gonna happen to BTC in four weeks!!!!!!!! You need to get off of the train platform, immediately b/c the train will NOT be leaving the platform as had been anticipated!!!!!! Get off the platform.. hurry up!!!!!!

WHEW.

Glad I got that off my chest.... I feel better.. o.k. back to normal.. HODL, everyone. Roll Eyes

I hope you guys (and a few gals) did NOT sell based on my short-lived emotional outburst.. I just was feeling a little bit in the SODL mood.. but I am back to normal, now. I think.

Quote from: podyx on April 07, 2014, 01:05:36 PM

75billion market cap would only need about 7 billion to fund

I agree with you more or less with these kinds of numbers. B/c increasing the market cap does NOT depend upon the total value of the market cap needing to be pumped into the BTC system.... and probably does NOT even need potential BTC buyers to understand the consequences of their actions. All it needs are people who are willing to pay $6,000 per BTC ... and that is only $6 per mBTC.... remarketing from BTC to mBTC can help alot.. at some point b/c investors may perceive mBTC to be $6 b/c they can buy $6 worth of goods and/or services for 1mBTC.

Quote from: podyx on April 07, 2014, 01:05:36 PM

This is because it get's pumped and nobody wants to sell when it rises
In fact, there is probably less then a million bitcoin for sale right now under $10k

I think that we need more information for this hypothetical.... especially concerning time-line for the increase. If the price were to go up really quickly, we may get a lot more sellers than you expect. It is NOT b/c they do NOT believe in BTC, but they will believe that they could trade to increase their BTC stash.. Ultimately, my point is that there is likely quite a few more BTC for sale up until $10k... and variation depending on how we get there.

Quote from: Voktar on April 07, 2014, 01:12:23 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 12:57:48 PM

Quote from: Biontic on April 07, 2014, 12:12:39 PM

255 day cycle?

Quote from: hdbuck on April 07, 2014, 11:52:19 AM

*snip*
edit: it take about 6 months to deflate from last bubble then 2 months for stabilisation and 1 month to initiate bullrun = about 9months cycles. the key is being patient. yeayyy Cheesy

Discussion here
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1z3m1z/a_look_at_four_bubbles_pricelog_linear_fit/

They are talking about a peak of $6000.

That would mean the market cap would need to move from 5.5 billion to + 75 Billion. Who is going to fund this ? Because I'm not and I doubt the whole bitcoin community "all in" could fund 75 billion.

So where does the new investment come from ?

13 times it's current price, needs 13 times as much money. Who is going to fund your dream before you dump your nice 13 x profit?

EDIT: im not talking at you specifically, but at the people in this link you sent.

That is thanks to scarcity...

Today there are only 19900 Bitcoins for sale at Bitstamp, Gox and their Bitcoins are gone, and we have a LOT of Hodlers.

Thanks to holders (believers) there is a great scarcity, i think the next bullrun can be epic, you don't need lots of billions for a great market cap. you only need a very low supply, and holders Wink

Serious question. Are you talking about the order books with 19,900 BTC? That would NOT be a reflection of how many BTC are on Bitstamp, or how many could be transferred over quickly, if needed. Surely, Bitstamp does NOT seem to be getting the kind of volume of GOX... but is this really a meaningful or even accurate statistic to make your point?

Quote from: spooderman on April 07, 2014, 02:37:21 PM

I know this is the wrongest place ever to mention this, but I wish the price would just plummet to the point where all the people who are in this for the money would disappear. Bitcoin is about so much more than it's dollar value. We are building something more important than the internet, and it's like people are obsessing over the price of domain names.

You are being very unrealistic if you are of the belief that getting rid of speculators is helpful to BTC... In the end, the speculators are likely to make or break BTC... Speculators are likely needed in order to drive incentives to build infrastructure and to get other people interested - expanding the user base.

Quote from: ParabellumLite on April 07, 2014, 05:32:21 PM

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on April 07, 2014, 05:15:49 PM

Once the news hits Bitcoin will climb over 1000 next week.

Hey you there. Reality is calling. Get back here.

Based on the totality of the circumstances and the price performance over the last week, I still have a hard time believing that BTC prices will go below $425 in the next day or so, absent some big negative news.......

Some are banking that negative news is coming, regarding Huobi and BTC China.. and I have my doubts about that too..

So, i have my doubts.. and my uncertainty... .. Have NOT quite gotten to fearful stage, yet. My next buy point in the next 1-5 days will be $429-ish.. if we happen to get that low. otherwise I will be HODLin...

Quote from: spooderman on April 07, 2014, 05:49:48 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 07, 2014, 05:46:41 PM

Quote from: spooderman on April 07, 2014, 02:37:21 PM

I know this is the wrongest place ever to mention this, but I wish the price would just plummet to the point where all the people who are in this for the money would disappear. Bitcoin is about so much more than it's dollar value. We are building something more important than the internet, and it's like people are obsessing over the price of domain names.

You are being very unrealistic if you are of the belief that getting rid of speculators is helpful to BTC... In the end, the speculators are likely to make or break BTC... Speculators are likely needed in order to drive incentives to build infrastructure and to get other people interested - expanding the user base.

good point. I shouldn't hang around here, I need to become that guy that makes bitcoin practical for the unbanked masses.

There are various roles for a lot of people, and hanging around here is ok. and going out and building infrastructure is o.k and betting on the building of infrastructure is o.k. too, as long as maybe a person can do that. Sometimes it is NOT easy to be able to have enough of a savings or even foresight to know when to get into some kind of investment and how much to invest or what role to play, exactly... each of us needs to make his/her own choices regarding how and the extent to which we are going to participate.

Quote from: oda.krell on April 07, 2014, 06:27:18 PM

Quote from: hdbuck on April 07, 2014, 06:20:20 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 07, 2014, 06:14:04 PM

Quote from: hdbuck on April 07, 2014, 06:06:42 PM

no im saying that the unbanked masses main concern is access to food and water. people with bank accounts litterally take dumps in drinkable water. so just stop pretending that bitcoin will change those unbanked masses lives. What should change is the centralisation of the world's resources.

It is an incredibly narrow (and supremely arrogant) point of view to consider anyone who is not "taking dumps in drinkable water" to be so poor they must be starving, sub-Saharan Africa style.

There are upwards of 2 billion people that could immensely benefit from BTC going mainstream, and, no, they are neither starving nor US/Euro level rich.

i was more thinking of india slumb style since i've been there recently and felt quite ashamed. and sure about 2billion "medium poor people" could benefit from bitcoin.. but only after the first billion that we are make profit.. on their back... sadly as always. thats all im sayin.

Well, I'd suggest to get this idea out of your head that BTC being a profitable investment and BTC being a tool for the greater good are mutually exclusive.

We (the (relatively) early investors) are the liquidity providers BTC needs to make it work as a tool. We take a big risk, we are being "rewarded". Unless you subscribe to the Bitcoin = Ponzi hypothesis, which I really hope you don't, there is no contradiction between investing to see BTC succeed *and* see a decent ROI.

YEP... possible to have both.. .. there may be bumps in the road.. but still possible to have both

Quote from: dreamspark on April 07, 2014, 07:17:19 PM

Another 1000 pages go by Grin

To be honest yes I think there is more greed than fear at the moment for sure, you have begun to fear yet many around you are just playing it cool and buying some more.

I also think that greed in an asset that has sky rocketed like Bitcoin is going to be far more prevalent still.

Probably, we would need to have more than a year of slow downtrend without any uptrend before I would begin to develop fear. Surely that kind of scenario is possible, but to me it seems to be a pretty low likelihood. The more likely scenario is that we are going to get an uptrend long before a year, and we may even get such an uptrend in the next few hours or the next few weeks or next few months...

Sure each of these scenarios have some impact on me personally, but I am quite far off from fear at this moment.

ON the other hand, there are likely quite a few people who did NOT expect to wait that long.. and also did NOT expect to see a 60% decline in their BTC portfolio, if they bought their whole chunk at somewhere in the $1200 price range. Potentially lack of foresight... or maybe just bad luck.. either explanation could be made for these kinds of investors who are in the 60% ballpark in the red.

Quote from: MNDan on April 07, 2014, 07:37:48 PM

I've heard that if the number of posts here ever equals the price of Bitcoin in US dollars that the internet will explode.

It's gonna be like that movie Speed. Go fonzie, go! Save the internet with your stupid FUD!

I project that we are going to have a quite a few troubling times with bitcoin prices in the coming years; however, if this thread keeps up at approximately its same rate of about 6,000 pages per year (by the way, happy anniversary Adam, in about 9 days), we are going to reach page/price parity in about late 2016 or early 2017 with a page count of 23,456. That will be a blip in bitcoin price history while we are passing to the mid $30,000 territory for the fluctuating new low price... b/c the new price range for the next several months will fluctuate between $35,000 and $50,000.

Sorry to be so bearish, but that seems to be what is likely to happen... and remember, you heard it here, first!!!

Quote from: lynn_402 on April 07, 2014, 08:01:13 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 07, 2014, 07:56:37 PM

I project that we are going to have a quite a few troubling times with bitcoin prices in the coming years; however, if this thread keeps up at approximately its same rate of about 6,000 pages per year (by the way, happy anniversary Adam, in about 9 days), we are going to reach page/price parity in about late 2016 or early 2017 with a page count of 23,456. That will be a blip in bitcoin price history while we are passing to the mid $30,000 territory for the fluctuating new low price... b/c the new price range for the next several months will fluctuate between $35,000 and $50,000.

Sorry to be so bearish, but that seems to be what is likely to happen... and remember, you heard it here, first!!!

This is a ponzi! Those who posted on the first pages are the one who will profit the most!

What is your definition of Ponzi? People like to throw around that term as a form of FUD.

Are you capable of explaining how your arrive at that kind of a conclusion regarding bitcoin and did you take into account the various investments going into the bitcoin network? or did you merely just recite unsupported conclusions from some media talking head(s)?

Are you invested in bitcoin or any other crypto? Do you have other investments? Do you have any recommendations besides suggesting that we should get out of bitcoin? If ur NOT invested in bitcoin and you are NOT considering investing in bitcoin, then why are you hanging out on this forum? In order, to let us all know about this supposed Ponzi?

Quote from: Adrian-x on April 07, 2014, 08:10:51 PM

Quote from: aminorex on April 07, 2014, 07:25:41 PM

Bitcoin burns greed. Greed is the fuel for its engine. All that greed will be consumed and transmuted into a new thing: scarcity.

Bitcoin is commodified scarcity. The world was running low on scarcity, so we had to create some. Previously we faced peak scarcity. Thanks to bitcoin, we now have enough scarcity for everyone.

Bring on the greed. Come at me bro. Bitcoin will use crypto fu and redirect that negative energy into pure positive scarcity.

Quoting for posterity.

Read it for the 3rd time and lol'ed with same intensity

YEAH.. frequently Aminorex writes with quite high-leveled profundity.. that may be marveled at historically... Cheesy

Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 08:27:02 PM

The Pump and Dump Bot just showed up on BTC-E again.

Looks like we are going down, if it works as intended.

I wanna know.. How far down we gonna go, and is the downward just going to be today..or is it going to last longer than that?

I am suspecting by the end of the day.. maybe in the next few hours when the chinese get up, we may get some upward momentum.. and maybe more upward momentum later in the week when we realize that there is no real significant chinese news.

Quote from: lynn_402 on April 07, 2014, 08:48:43 PM

Might not mean much, but look at the forum's currency exchange section. The vast majority are people buying BTC, and those who want to sell manage to find a buyer in a few minutes.

I did NOT know that the forum has a currency exchange section.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 07, 2014, 10:45:21 PM

Quote from: thefunkybits on April 07, 2014, 10:19:34 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 07, 2014, 09:44:39 PM

The buy walls are building, but we still can only absorb ~ 0.1 percent of all Bitcoins in existence (12K BTC) before the plummet to $266. Hypothetically that one guy on Bitfinex who flashed the 15K sell wall could do it by himself. He almost certainly won't, but when China goes dark, we'll find out if this is like April of last year or like June of 2011.

Is this what you're referring to? I saw 1500 BTC walls being flashed around on Bitfinex last night....but not 15K?

pics or it didnt happen! Wink

edit: 1K BTC got pulled and the 500 wall was eaten

It was over a week ago. I don't have pics. So I guess he could have sold it by now a little at a time. My point is that there are are people with massive holdings who could profit by crashing the price to buy back cheaper. The easiest way to get bitcoin is to already have a bunch and take advantage of a vulnerable market the way George Soros made a billion dollars in one day shorting the British Pound. There are sharks out there waiting for the signal from China to eat us alive. The question isn't up or down. The question is how much lower.

If I was an evil billionaire (possibly redundant term), I would buy hundreds of thousands of bitcoin off exchange from miners and flood the market, keeping prices low for months while I bought more coins from miners at the new lower price. People keep pointing out that fiat is infinite and bitcoin isn't. Rich guys can use time as a weapon against us. They can wait us out.

I hate to agree with you BJA regarding your underlying facts, but that is very close to the same theory that I had described regarding what is likely to be going on behind the scenes.

I do NOT necessarily share your doom and gloom scenario that they are going to be able to keep it up - but it is possible that prices could be depressed for several months... I am NOT so confident on such a continued downward trend as to sell, though.

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 08, 2014, 01:00:05 AM

there isn't much buying or selling
after a shit storm of Bubble poping, GOXING BANNING and extreme FUD
i would love to see the market just trading in a range say 400-500 on low volume for a while... let poeple buy and sell in a calm and orderly fashion, instead of panic panic panic now now now!!!
so ya really hoping low volume stays low, and the FUD cloud dissipates

you are "loving" for the demise of your own thread... hehehe...

Quote from: jonoiv on April 08, 2014, 03:04:08 AM

Quote from: stan.distortion on December 19, 2013, 12:10:29 AM

China's a bit "wtf now?"

still small volume though and as soon as it tries to break this line you will see massive resistance.

We seem to be just stuck in this $450-ish limbo land (NOT even $444, anymore)... and maybe this kind of boringness CANNOT be rushed with such seeming low volume... who would have even guessed that we may be floating in the mid-$450s price territory for so long.

Seems like both Bears and Bulls are getting a little bit anxious about this BTC price point. Personally, I keep thinking let's go down to $430 or $425 or even $420 and get it over with.. and maybe thereafter, at some point soon we can progress back up to higher resting grounds....

I'm NOT giving up on $750 to $850 being a more reasonable price range for a few months before the next bubble... maybe as late as August or September?

I seem to be so easily convinced about various bubble scenarios.. maybe it is pie in the sky thinking from me?

Initially, I was thinking $1,500 as the next bubble, but for some reason that amount is beginning to seem too conservative, and somewhere between $2500 and $3500 or the next bubble may be more reasonable b/c it seems that once prices break the previous ATH, then there is going to be a magnitude of increase beyond the previous ATH - merely b/c bitcoin remains very much in its early stages of expansion and adoption.

At the moment, though, there seems to be some pent up pressures to push these BTC prices down to the $430 or $425 or even $420, but the last several days, the price barely will breach $440.... which may mean that we may be floating here in this $440 to $460 range for a whole week, or at least until 4/15 comes and goes?

Quote from: shmadz on April 08, 2014, 04:47:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 08, 2014, 04:41:24 AM

who would have even guessed that we may be floating in the mid-$450s price territory for so long.

I know this one guy....

Quote from: masterluc on December 17, 2013, 02:41:03 AM

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

I think that it is a different story if an investor was in a position to cash out part of his stash in December 2013.. or had been analyzing what to do during that period mid-to-late 2013 period. So for example if anyone got into BTC in any kind of heavy way before mid-October 2013, the quick bubble may have likely caused a considerable incentive to cash out part of the appreciation - yet many may have just remained "in for the long term."

Surely the January, February and March performance seemed to draw considerations that BTC prices would remain at higher than $450s resting price points. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but a very large majority of those would have pegged a much higher resting point than our current mid$400s.

And, i suppose, I could be just inviting some bears to chime in to say, I told you so regarding this current mid$400s price range....

As I already stated, I doubt that we are going to be hanging around here for too long.. and probably a bit higher would be more in line with current fundamentals or at least the probability of going up seems greater than going down.. despite current low volume..

Also, even though we know that graphs can be constructed to show that $450-ish is a good stable price point, i think that BTC prices are a considerable bargain at the moment and I am sure that quite a bit.. little by little is being snatched up at these price points by the future elite (to coin a phrase from another bitcointalk thread)

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 08, 2014, 05:02:24 AM

Does anyone else get the feeling like the dread is starting to sink into the last of the permabulls? I know that feeling. Maybe it's projection, buy I can almost hear the hope dying.

Probably gonna need a much worse situation than this... before the dread really begins to kick in... somewhere around 1 year of floating between $400 and $500 or maybe some additional downward movement slowly over the next six months bringing prices to lower $300 would begin to increase some dread levels.

I'm thinking the circumstances are NOT quite dire enough yet, especially reviewing some of the history in which the price reduced to 1/16th... wow... we are NOT even close to that, yet. Maybe we are getting closer to the 1/3rd reduction territory... so seems that there is a ways to go before dread really will start to materialize... I would think.

Quote from: shmadz on April 08, 2014, 05:30:57 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 08, 2014, 05:18:44 AM

Quote from: shmadz on April 08, 2014, 04:47:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 08, 2014, 04:41:24 AM

who would have even guessed that we may be floating in the mid-$450s price territory for so long.

I know this one guy....

Quote from: masterluc on December 17, 2013, 02:41:03 AM

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

I think that it is a different story if an investor was in a position to cash out part of his stash in December 2013.. or had been analyzing what to do during that period mid-to-late 2013 period. So for example if anyone got into BTC in any kind of heavy way before mid-October 2013, the quick bubble may have likely caused a considerable incentive to cash out part of the appreciation - yet many may have just remained "in for the long term."

Surely the January, February and March performance seemed to draw considerations that BTC prices would remain at higher than $450s resting price points. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but a very large majority of those would have pegged a much higher resting point than our current mid$400s.

And, i suppose, I could be just inviting some bears to chime in to say, I told you so regarding this current mid$400s price range....

As I already stated, I doubt that we are going to be hanging around here for too long.. and probably a bit higher would be more in line with current fundamentals or at least the probability of going up seems greater than going down.. despite current low volume..

Also, even though we know that graphs can be constructed to show that $450-ish is a good stable price point, i think that BTC prices are a considerable bargain at the moment and I am sure that quite a bit.. little by little is being snatched up at these price points by the future elite (to coin a phrase from another bitcointalk thread)

I think that 450 is a nice price point and I have bought there on the last 2 dips; this one, I am sitting out.

the point I'd really like to address is the part I bolded: I don't think there are many savvy traders that have remained "in for the long term" when we've lost 50% in what? 2-3 months?

I get the feeling that the next bump will be big, and I think many of those that sold at $1000+ were people that bought much lower, and they remember the ride, and would like to do it again.

just don't forget to take profits when the price goes in your favour.

:edit: "taking profit" is a term I used for NFL betting, that's where I learned to trade. and when you're up, you better take some profits off the table, or you will lose it all. (you can consider "profit" as either extra fiat for hookers and blow, or skimming extra bitcoin and saving it for a rainy day Wink

I agree with you completely about the need to skim profits in accordance with whatever scheme is comfortable for the investor. My skimming will probably be in the form of reallocation of my total investment portfolio.. especially if there are gains in one area, as compared with another).. So for example, if I had been into BTC in early 2013, then ended up realizing an unexpected 10 times gain, that may have likely triggered me to reallocate the gains into other areas.. .or maybe engaging in some consumption, as you mentioned.

My perspective remains somewhat skewed by the fact that I began investing in BTC in late November 2013. Accordingly, my BTC portfolio remains in the red, even though I have been buying BTC as the price goes down in order to bring down my average price per BTC - which currently is around $640 - though I started at $1,200.

When I got into BTC, I realized that there had been a recent and stupendous bull run, so that caused me to plan out my investment over the next several months... rather than sinking in a lump-sum at that particular moment. Surely, in retrospect, there are probably ways that I could have played trades (or made my buys) in ways that would have caused even a lower average price per BTC.

At the time that I first got into BTC, I was also thinking that my BTC investment would likely run for at least 2 years, absent some catastrophic occurrence that may undermine the fundamentals of BTC with part of my motivation to diversify away from the dollar, since the remainder of my investments (which is a much larger proportion) are tied into the performance of the dollar. I am sure that many of us in the bitcoin sphere realize the amazingly high level of printing press matters going on with the dollar and also some of the threats of US government shut downs, and those seemingly irresponsible governmental behaviors have caused me considerable concerns about having so much of my total investment dependent upon the ongoing value of the dollar - especially when I am also planning overseas travel.

So,yes, I do NOT have any major problem with floating around in the $450 range for a while - even though it would be a bit more comfortable floating in the black rather than in the red... but I have already banked on the possibility that my total BTC investment could go belly up.. so the worse case scenario would be if it kept going down and sucking out my money.... which I really doubt will occur based on the totality of what is going on with bitcoin and there continue to be lots of interesting value adding developments in the bitcoin sphere.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 08, 2014, 05:51:33 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 08, 2014, 05:25:18 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 08, 2014, 05:02:24 AM

Does anyone else get the feeling like the dread is starting to sink into the last of the permabulls? I know that feeling. Maybe it's projection, buy I can almost hear the hope dying.

Probably gonna need a much worse situation than this... before the dread really begins to kick in... somewhere around 1 year of floating between $400 and $500 or maybe some additional downward movement slowly over the next six months bringing prices to lower $300 would begin to increase some dread levels.

I'm thinking the circumstances are NOT quite dire enough yet, especially reviewing some of the history in which the price reduced to 1/16th... wow... we are NOT even close to that, yet. Maybe we are getting closer to the 1/3rd reduction territory... so seems that there is a ways to go before dread really will start to materialize... I would think.

I meant permabull active traders with open orders. Guys like me staring staring at the graphs, wanting the arrow to move up like the way some rabid sports fans think that their team still has a prayer when the coach has already substituted third string players and the other fans are starting to leave.

That's a good visual.... even though the situation may NOT be as dire as you make it out to be...

We could get a break out in either direction... .. and that possibility for either direction is supported somewhat by the fact that we have been lingering in this mid-$450 territory for so long. Maybe the downward momentum was snuffed out to some extent over the last few days, so additional downward momentum can only come if the negative news has a sufficient shock value... Never put it past the Chinese to fail to come out with some illogical, incomprehensible and ambiguous news releases... They will likely come out with something ridiculous.. and the question will be whether that is enough to cause sufficient downward movement to maybe even cut some losses...

At this point, i would be surprised if within the next few days, we were to return to prices below $430 for more than 30 minutes (maybe a 35% chance, absent additional negative news).

On the upside, i would be surprised if within the next few days, we were to return to prices above $480 for more than 30 minutes (maybe a 40% chance, absent additional news).

Quote from: TeeBone on April 08, 2014, 06:31:38 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 08, 2014, 06:27:07 AM

Quote from: TeeBone on April 08, 2014, 06:15:40 AM

This feels totally diffferent then the last 2 drops to 400. Almost everyone saw those flash crashes coming and that it would quickly rebound within hrs, which it did.

Here we are in the low/mid 400's for over a week and there is no mad rush to buy coins at this insanely 'discounted' price.

Permabulls are hoping for a hail-mary pass, but i just dont see it, i dont think we've grinded this far down for not at least a vicious 400 retest.

Sharks are waiting in the wings patiently. 400 is key, if that breaks watch the fuck out, it could drop like a rock to the 200's. This market is dying to shake out all the gamblers who bought in at 1K.

That's exactly how I see it too, but Bitcoin isn't known for being predictable.

True. That's why im split up, 40% trading (all fiat right now) and 60% savings. However, if 400 is breached i probably will be dipping into my savings to sell some more.

If $400 is breached, I am certainly buying some more.... yet the exact price point in which I buy and how much would depend upon how fast it drops and whether based on any additional news (or FUD) -

Maybe I will buy yours TeeBone?

Quote from: shmadz on April 08, 2014, 07:10:42 AM

Unfortunately, I do NOT have any advice for you, JJG. Wink

hehehe!! no? not funny? oh well Sad

this is why I don't do sales.

I can't lie very well, I can't tell you the future, I can't tell you that as long as you hold on to those $1,200 coins for at least a year, then you'll be just fine.

That's o.k. about the lack of advice b/c these matters can be very complicated - especially when you nor anyone else on the forum knows my exact holdings and my aspirations and my risk tolerance and a variety of other factors that would go into providing some input(s) concerning my investment decisions. I have already had some guys providing advice based on very incomplete information about my situation, and surely, I would NOT necessarily even want to share all the details.

Also, I am fairly capable of calculating various risks and then living with my decision(s) at any point of time and realizing the extent to which I may need to reconsider my exit strategy, if needed.

As far as the $1200 coins, that does NOT really motivate me b/c I consider my average cost per BTC including transaction fees, which is currently about $640. Surely, my average cost per BTC could have been lower, or i could currently could make it lower by buying more, but overall I am satisfied with having had brought down my average cost to that point.

I believe the chances are fairly decent that BTC prices will rise above my average price point within the next couple of years, and on average I get about 6% per year on my other investments. So if in two years, I am able to get 6% per year out of BTC, then I would be very happy with that kind of an outcome.. 12% would mean getting to a price of $720 in the next two years... and I believe that is very likely.... and a higher price would surely be additional icing on the cake.

And, even if I do NOT make money, I believe that BTC remains a gamble worth taking, given its apparent innovative aspects. It is really an exciting kind of system that is evolving, and I believe that my investment into BTC allows for a bird's eye perspective.

Quote from: shmadz on April 08, 2014, 07:10:42 AM

I actually shouldn't even be speaking right now, but I feel a compulsive urge to be involved in this thing somehow, and perhaps this is just my way of acting out, thowing a tantrum and all that.

I've always had the feeling that I would be involved in something great. maybe it's just a dream, a dream that everyone shares?
as far as price action? that is for traders, if you want to be a trader, then you can.

personally I think we are approaching some interesting times and I'm not very excited about some of the possible outcomes.

Sounds as if you have some mysterious secrets and a lot more to tell... he he he.. but you are holding back...

Bitcoin can bring us into a lot of different areas including questions about wealth distribution and politics and even quality of life issues... .. and surely, it is nice to have a certain level of passive income that allows a person to be able to live in comfort. Some of that can come through bitcoin and some may need to be safeguarded by diversifying investments... whether we are talking about how to allocate our finances or how to allocate our time.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 08, 2014, 07:13:03 AM

Y'all chase this rally if you want. Bitcoin's been good to me and I'm not going to be greedy. I'll stay with my low buy orders to provide a safety net in case this some kind of trap.

Bitcoin ate my greed.

Way too early to leave the game or the arena... even though the third string and the waterboy are playing.

There's still a chance... just gotta have a plan, no?

Cool

Quote from: octaft on April 08, 2014, 07:38:05 AM

Quote from: spooderman on April 08, 2014, 07:34:01 AM

Oh and btw, there should be ZERO trading for a few days while heartbleed is sorted out. Anyone logging in to any sites right now is taking a risk if I understand this correctly.

What is heartbleed?

EDIT: Nevermind I found it on google. Wow.

So heartbleed will make BTC prices more stable b/c no logging in?

Quote from: keithers on April 08, 2014, 04:44:15 PM

20% of the people think that we will be below $440 levels within the next to hours? I doubt that...

I answered that poll like 14 hours ago, or maybe my clock is NOT working properly..

It surely seems like 14 hours when I answered that.. I went to sleep.. etc. etc.. Maybe that's why I still feel tired, didn't sleep enough, less than 2 hours of sleep? Fuck!!!

Quote from: rpietila on April 08, 2014, 04:49:15 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 08, 2014, 02:56:31 PM

Anyone notice that now $458 is compared to Mt. Everest, by a Bull! My estimate that $400 will hold is back up to 60%.

FWIW mine is 70%.

We're NOT going below $425 absent some major negative news... so getting down to $400 is even a bigger stretch of the imagination. Without knowing what the news is going to be, it is difficult to assign probabilities....

If we just hypothesize that there is NO major news for the next few months and we just float in the mid-$400s... then I would say the inclination is up and not down..

In other words, we only gonna go up, absent some major negative news.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 08, 2014, 05:04:24 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 08, 2014, 04:51:06 PM

Jorge's like the villain in a cheap action movie. Bruised, battered and bleeding, Bitcoin keeps coming. He keeps wondering "Why won't you die??"

I came into the theater when the movie had already gone through three plot changes. Maybe that is why I am still confused about who are the heroes and who are the villains. Wink

WOW!!!!

Seems like an admission that you may come around... maybe you will buy a bitcoin or two, too?

Quote from: spooderman on April 08, 2014, 06:04:10 PM

Quote from: aminorex on April 08, 2014, 05:14:01 PM

We're not going anywhere, period, unless someone is willing to buy above 453 or sell below it. In the past 90 minutes I see 15 minutes during which trades occurred.

The relevance of exchanges to the bitcoin economy may be waning.

you seem to be forgetting heartbleed.

you can't log into to bitstamp.

So the only way that you can trade on Bitstamp is if you have NOT been logged out.. How long could that last? I do NOT have a Bitstamp account, but I know that on some of my bitcoin accounts, I get automatically logged off, periodically.

Quote from: KFR on April 08, 2014, 06:14:57 PM

Quote from: spooderman on April 08, 2014, 06:04:10 PM

Quote from: aminorex on April 08, 2014, 05:14:01 PM

We're not going anywhere, period, unless someone is willing to buy above 453 or sell below it. In the past 90 minutes I see 15 minutes during which trades occurred.

The relevance of exchanges to the bitcoin economy may be waning.

you seem to be forgetting heartbleed.

you can't log into to bitstamp.

That was quickly patched. More quickly than some old money online banking web sites from what I understand.

https://www.ssllabs.com/ssltest/analyze.html?d=bitstamp.net

Bitstamp log-ins have resumed?

Quote from: jonoiv on April 08, 2014, 06:47:32 PM

http://www.forbes.com/sites/perianneboring/2014/04/08/breaking-rep-stockman-to-introduce-first-bitcoin-bill/

Bitcoin Bill in US congress

not sure what effect this will have.

So far all i see is sell orders lining up!

Seems like that bill would be a positive development - to the extent that it seems to merely clarify the treatment of bitcoin as a foreign currency, rather than as property for the purposes of USA taxes.

On the other hand, if there are some other secret surprise language contained in the legislation, then that may be a different story.

Quote from: jonoiv on April 08, 2014, 07:06:19 PM

I think we have tested the top long enough. So i'm turning very bearish again.. I could be wrong. I frequently am, but here is my possible worst case scenario for the next 2 days or so..

I like the way you conditioned your prediction that you are frequently wrong... IN other words this prediction has NO basis in reality besides the fact that you started it from a real chart.. and it was pulled from a real ass (no hating on you personally - just referring to a body part).

Quote from: keithers on April 08, 2014, 07:48:44 PM

I don't know why, but it feels lately that we are in the calm before the storm. The variance has shrunk a lot in the past few weeks, and the high and lows are a very tight window. I can almost feel it in the air that it is going to start moving again very soon...

which way, though?

Quote from: KFR on April 08, 2014, 10:02:14 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 08, 2014, 09:59:33 PM

Greed may even destroy bitcoins most praised quality, its planned scarcity. I don't see what could prevent that.

That's why you need to study harder. Tongue

Fear and greed are the two faces of the same coin.

These concepts of greed and cheating and even fear are going to continue to be big and ongoing tests for bitcoin... and whether bitcoin remains robust enough to withstand various cheating attempts (the Byzantine general issue)...

I get the sense that the bigger challenges with bitcoin are going to be coming when transactions are allowed off of the block chain for extended periods of time. Sometimes, it will be much more effective and efficient to have some transactions taking place off of the blockchain, so long at there can be periodic updates with the blockchain.. to make sure that the transaction has taken place.. maybe synchronizing daily or even shorter periods, hourly?, so that it can be verified that no one is running off with my hard earned coins.

Quote from: KFR on April 08, 2014, 10:05:30 PM

I'll join you. Leave some for me. Cool

yeah, and the two of you can trade.. on your own little private island... that would be great for the value of bitcoin. Cheesy

Quote from: jonoiv on April 08, 2014, 10:08:34 PM

And any future prediction is just that a prediction, how else do you want me to represent a future prediction, without making it up? Seems strange you think I should make a potential prediction but base it on fact.... bit of an oxymoron....

You got me on that one. I will concede quasi-defeat on that particular point.. NOT only for your getting me on it, but very good in the humor department, as well. Cheesy

I am considering a come back, and I realize that I may have gone too far out on a limb in my earlier criticism.

I will say, though, in my defense, that I have NO problem with the making of predictions, and such predictions become better when they have some foundation beyond a mere making of a wish. Your previous "prediction" just struck so much on the fantasy La La land, without any real grounding.

For example, I predict that bitcoin will fall by 50% in the next 2 days because ... [example of something or news that is going to cause such].

I don't want to get too preachy when my point was fairly obvious.. but I did enjoy reading your come back..... but your comeback does NOT really affect your original problem, and only points at how I may have been a bit too dogmatic in my own criticism(s).

Quote from: jonoiv on April 08, 2014, 10:08:34 PM

Also an Ass is not a body part it's a member of the horse family.. The word you're looking for is arse!

NOW you are really getting into trivial technicalities... .. We all know that when I mentioned "ass" in my previous post, I was talking about some "butt hole" or anus or rectum or whatever other common parlance for a body part and not an animal. Anyhow, a side-point, at best.

Quote from: aminorex on April 09, 2014, 12:03:55 AM

The miners decide what the rules are. Increasingly, that means ghash.io, discus fish, eligius, and btcguild. Biggest threat to bitcoin today.

Instead of the word "threat," you must really mean biggest "vulnerability"?

If the miners were to be infiltrated, then could destroy bitcoin, and I suppose there could be some miner-related battles in the future and attempts to figure out what is "good for" bitcoin.

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 09, 2014, 12:11:27 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 09, 2014, 12:08:25 AM

Quote from: gotmilk_ on April 08, 2014, 11:57:37 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 08, 2014, 11:47:29 PM

I hope this is the bottom. I hope a rally starts now and goes on forever. I would love to be wrong.

Well I'm not saying you're wrong... the price can stil drop lower. I just can't understand the words about exchange going dark. Was nowhere written nothing about that.
And I really don't care much in which way we are going... Not selling my btc for at least a year, while I will be happy to trade with ltc and getting more of them Wink

You can also double your coins hypothetically by selling before a plunge and buying back half price. If I had done that in 2011, 2012, or last year, I would be a multimillionaire now.

you can also double your coins with 15 well timed %5 swings Cheesy

Or you could decrease your holdings, by either getting this one wrong or getting wrong more than half of the 15 "well-timed" swings... while losing hair in the process.

Quote from: jonoiv on April 09, 2014, 12:27:44 AM

I will say though, that until we have good news, the previous trend is unlikely to get reversed. and the trend lines, I posted do accurately represent the past weeks. The chart would be the best guess for anyone studying the data if they didn't know anything about bitcoin and they had no other information to go on. Stick that data in an algorithmic computer prediction without any fundamental information, and it would come to a similar conclusion.

I do NOT know a whole lot about how to input this kind of information into algorithmic computer prediction, yet I understand the concept. Accordingly, I have little reason to doubt that if one put exactly the data from your previous chart into such a prediction tool, we would likely get similar results as you predicted... Maybe NOT as dramatic, but similar.

On the other hand, I also understand the concept of prediction sufficiently to know that you are being very selective with your timeline, and we do NOT need to incorporate fundamentals data in order to achieve a much different picture. Surely, if we take nearly any starting point after early December 2013 until present, we are going to get a downward trendline. However, if we pick any trendline that starts from mid-November or at any point earlier, we are going to obtain much different results (and likely an upward trendline).

In order to really appreciate the multitude of possibilities in the short-term, we need to also consider the long-term, too. If we take into consideration the long-term, then it is very likely that we get a WTF? Huh

?? result.. - meaning we would NOT be able to figure out with any certainty WTF is gonna happen with BTC prices. and difficulties in predicting what is going to happen one way or another in the short term.. but an inclination towards an upward trend in the long run.... ... and then if we add in various aspects of the fundamentals, we get a bitcoin price that currently seems to be very undervalued.

You seem like a fairly bright guy that is likely engaging in a form of selectivity in your data, and probably I am wasting my time by engaging with you.... b/c you really are a bit outrageous in that latest predictions and a few of your other recent predictions that seem to be predicting a grand short-term downfall that is supposedly obvious.

Quote from: jonoiv on April 09, 2014, 12:27:44 AM

But because this is bitcoin, and it does have support, other factors do need to be considered. I take that point. So with that in mind, my personal opinion is bottoming out is far more likely than a reserve pattern forming without some fundamental positive factor.

Many bears will have a price in their head, and the further we go down the scale the more likely we are to reach that equilibrium.

A double bottom is a good scenario for the bulls, or a slow drop until we reach the equilibrium stage. but while we keep touching that trend line and the 15th of April is approaching, the average price is dropping at a rate of about $7 a day, relative capitulation, followed by stagnation with some stability might be not such a bad thing for bitcoin at the moment.

These are decent points... Again... depending on the timeline.. and even bears seem to agree if we get stuck at this mid-$400s price range for a considerable amount of time, it is much more likely to break upward rather than breaking downward.. absent further FUD or actual real negative news.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 09, 2014, 12:32:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 09, 2014, 12:19:10 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 09, 2014, 12:03:55 AM

The miners decide what the rules are. Increasingly, that means ghash.io, discus fish, eligius, and btcguild. Biggest threat to bitcoin today.

Instead of the word "threat," you must really mean biggest "vulnerability"?

If the miners were to be infiltrated, then could destroy bitcoin, and I suppose there could be some miner-related battles in the future and attempts to figure out what is "good for" bitcoin.

I don't see any way to destroy Bitcoin that wouldn't hurt the destroyer even worse. It would take $20 billion to ensure it could be done and any failed attempt would make it more difficult to try again. You could really hurt it for much less, but not kill it and it would come back stronger. Even if you did kill it, another crypto would replace it almost immediately. You can't kill a protocol. The laws of economics are immune to legislative fiat.

This is one of the best points that you have made in weeks!!!!! Grin

Maybe you have snapped out of your quasi-delirium state?

I'm just kidding.. .but I thank you for that point b/c I was thinking that there was something that I was missing.. and in the above post, you outlined the situation really well.

I will take back any negative thought that I almost had that involved you. Cheesy

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 09, 2014, 01:59:10 AM

the low volume highly volatility range trading may now begin.

What's new about that?

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 09, 2014, 02:14:19 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 09, 2014, 02:07:16 AM

Also note there are no 1,500BTC bid walls accumulating coins this time.

no one is interested in the 500BTC wall on btc-e tho.

volume is low because we accumulated so many god damn hodlers invested for the future.

don't expect them to all panic sell at once because china banned bitcoin 5 times in april.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG1qooBzE2w&feature=share&list=PL3C264C70646796C4&index=4

December 2013 - oh shit!!!!! china bans bitcoin

January 2014 - you know what ? bitcoin is going to banned in china at the end of January

February 2014 - NEWS FLASH - china bans bitcoin

March 2014 - guess what china is banning?

April 2014 - fill in the blank---- China is going to ban [______] come on, you can do it. guess.

Quote from: TERA on April 09, 2014, 02:28:39 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 09, 2014, 02:23:22 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 09, 2014, 02:18:31 AM

Also, a price supported by entirely by holding and not by buyers is very weak - it is unusable by merchants due to the lack of liquidity. It is in effect a ponzi scheme.

You should be ashamed of yourself for being involved. What would your mother think? Go away.

I have a history of trading ponzi schemes actually, and then getting out just in time before they collapse. It all started when I was 18 years old and I partipated in a ponzi called "12 daily pro", turning $5,000 into $15,000 in a few weeks. Of course the members insisted that it was not a ponzi at the time. It was.. "the future of advertising and multi level marketing" bla bla.

YOUR bare assertion that bitcoin is a ponzi scheme will NOT win the day. And, the mere fact that you may have some experience with Ponzi schemes does NOT mean that you have correctly identified bitcoin properly as a supposed Ponzi scheme.

With any kind of investment, there is a certain level of reliance on future investors to keep up the price point.. but bitcoin has a lot of tangibles..

A ponzi scheme is different b/c it offers nothing in return and is a scam.. You really should KNOW better than making those kinds of vacuous accusations towards bitcoin without any real solid argument...

By employing the term "Ponzi" you are engaging in a disinformation campaign.. b/c it seems that you know better.

Quote from: jonoiv on April 09, 2014, 03:21:59 AM

No one is buying and no one is selling.

while the price is dropping on average of $7-8 per day. The scales are tipped only one way imho.

Dropping $7-8 per day since when?

Are selectively picking a start date for this hypothetical and arbitrarily picked price drop?

Quote from: TERA on April 09, 2014, 03:38:38 AM

Im not calling bitcoin itself a ponzi, but this mentality where you have to convince other speculators to "hold" resembles that of a ponzi. if its really that strong fundamentally, then there should be an elastic support so that sellers cannot drop the price that much until eventually all coins are bought by new buyers. you shouldn't be fearing that if 1% of an asset is sold, it will collapse. let's say you're trading GOOG - you don't give a crap about what other traders are doing and you know it doesn't matter.

I don't want to be accusing you of anything, but you seem much smarter than that, in terms of understanding what is going on with the market and with bitcoin and what is or is NOT a ponzi scheme.

Sure Posters yell out hodl hodl hodl and buy buy buy.. etc.. b/c they are bullish and that is their general strategy to build up their bitcoin reserves. And, sure there may be some that are trying to convince others for the "good" of bitcoin; however, i think that a large majority are just shouting out hodl hodl hodl and buy buy buy out of courtesy... or out of what's in the self-interest of the investors.

Yes, the more places there are to liquidate my bitcoin with ease, the more likely I will be to spend my bitcoin.. spend and replace.. but these days, there still tends to be some hassles in liquidation channels.. we are still in the early stages.... so the fact that a lot of the liquidation of bitcoin is taking place through trading and through exchanges, is more a product of the relative infancy stages of bitcoin rather than some kind of alleged fact that bitcoin is a ponzi scheme... as the years go on and more development and ease of use is going to help to make bitcoin much more practical with day to day transactions with more and more merchants.. we already see that, but ease of use is NOT very developed... .. yet NONE of that causes bitcoin or the behavior around bitcoin to be as ponzi scheme-ish as you seem to be attempting to force it into that kind of definition.. for some ulterior motive... who knows?

Just b/c a lot of posters here are cheering for bitcoin and what bitcoin to succeed.. for a variety of reasons.. including.. to get rich (or richer) on speculation, also does not mean that their behavior is ponzi scheme-ish... Bitcoin has a pretty good chance in succeeding in a large number of ways.. and it is seems a lot of those success scenarios also translates in fairly high likelihood that demand for BTC and price will increase, as well.

Quote from: jonoiv on April 09, 2014, 03:53:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 09, 2014, 03:30:22 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 09, 2014, 03:21:59 AM

No one is buying and no one is selling.

while the price is dropping on average of $7-8 per day. The scales are tipped only one way imho.

Dropping $7-8 per day since when?

Are selectively picking a start date for this hypothetical and arbitrarily picked price drop?

sorry my mistake, it's $5-6 per day.

Quote from: chessnut on April 09, 2014, 03:54:19 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 09, 2014, 03:53:31 AM

sorry my mistake, it's $5-6 per day.

I think you missed the point entirely

Jonoiv: missed the point on purpose....... it seems... that is called avoiding the question...

The question is important, so i will repeat it, which I have asked you this same question before, and you also avoided it b/c to answer the question gets you the wrong results... it gets you to a spin place where you do NOT want to go.. and that is REALITY... the real world.

Can you please explain in more detail your theory about the price drop and the time period for such a supposed price drop trajectory that NOT only describes price history but such price drop is also supposed to have some kind of predictive value regarding the direction of bitcoin prices..

Explain it to us in plain English and in detail, por favor!!! Lay it on us. We are all ears. We are all eyes.. go ahead, make our day. Enlighten us.

Quote from: 600watt on April 09, 2014, 08:16:10 AM

Ponzi is by definition a crime. telling people to hold is no crime. that is far fetched...

Yeah... I probably should NOT allow myself to get drawn into discussion regarding such silly assertions... we hear them so much about bitcoin being a ponzi scheme.. and surely people in this thread would NOT be easily be mislead about such exaggerations regarding what is going on around bitcoin.... even though we see these kinds of misleading assertions frequently in the mainstream press. I am sure tht various false assertions remain confusing for regular people who are NOT very familiar with bitcoin or get distracted by some of these kinds of goose chasing misinformation campaigns.

Quote from: tarmi on April 09, 2014, 08:47:39 AM

Quote from: 600watt on April 09, 2014, 08:16:10 AM

Ponzi is by definition a crime. telling people to hold is no crime. that is far fetched...

well, when you think about it...until the last coin is mined, btc needs constant inflow of cash to remain stable.

or people holding.

More crazy talk... to try to attempt to justify non-sense.. and probably I should NOT bite.. but o.k.... a nibble.. ok.. .

I think that there is a built in expectation with bitcoin that as time passes, more and more people will be using bitcoin and more and more developments will create demands for bitcoin... .. in that sense demand for bitcoin is likely to far outpace the increased supply. Otherwise if bitcoin were to stay stagnant in its number of users.. then it would NOT increase in value or price... I would NOT call that something that bitcoin "needs." B/c bitcoin could give a fuck about whether it is $2 per BTC or $2 million per BTC.. so yes, if it is only being used among 1,000 "criminals" in the underground, then who knows, the price may be a bit lower than if it expands into widespread adoptions.

Quote from: mladen00 on April 09, 2014, 09:14:18 AM

Quote from: roslinpl on April 09, 2014, 09:03:20 AM

Quote from: ChartBuddy on April 09, 2014, 09:00:29 AM

Explanation

Good price! I am pretty sure that it will go only up right from now :-)

I think this is bottom, ground value for Bitcoin

next week will be a stagnation week and then up

slow till summer and then catapulting in July

Maybe you are correct?

Maybe stable through the weekend..? though sometimes it is hypothesized that BTC prices go up a little on Thursdays and then down on Saturdays and then up on Sundays.. but maybe we will NOT get any kind of meaningful price movement until after 4/15 comes and goes?

Maybe I will buy a few more BTC in the next few days.. though it may be o.k. to wait until Saturday.. but that may only amount to a $5 to $10 per BTC discount at most (and such a discount is NOT set in stone either)... which even if there is a $5-$10 discount in the whole scheme of things, is NOT a big price difference.. 1-2%

I am inclined to buy a few more in order to up my holdings a little bit and to bring down my average price per BTC a little bit.. but of course I would like to buy at the lowest reasonably foreseeable price, if possible. Undecided

Quote from: tarmi on April 09, 2014, 09:24:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 09, 2014, 09:16:21 AM

Quote from: tarmi on April 09, 2014, 08:47:39 AM

Quote from: 600watt on April 09, 2014, 08:16:10 AM

Ponzi is by definition a crime. telling people to hold is no crime. that is far fetched...

well, when you think about it...until the last coin is mined, btc needs constant inflow of cash to remain stable.

or people holding.

More crazy talk... to try to attempt to justify non-sense.. and probably I should NOT bite.. but o.k.... a nibble.. ok.. .

I think that there is a built in expectation with bitcoin that as time passes, more and more people will be using bitcoin and more and more developments will create demands for bitcoin... .. in that sense demand for bitcoin is likely to far outpace the increased supply. Otherwise if bitcoin were to stay stagnant in its number of users.. then it would NOT increase in value or price... I would NOT call that something that bitcoin "needs." B/c bitcoin could give a fuck about whether it is $2 per BTC or $2 million per BTC.. so yes, if it is only being used among 1,000 "criminals" in the underground, then who knows, the price may be a bit lower than if it expands into widespread adoptions.

exactly what I said. new money means price will go up. no new investors or money - price going down.

holders not holding - > crash.

Maybe we do NOT really disagree, then?

I would NOT really characterize the situation as a "crash," though, and I tend to think that number of people coming in continues to be larger than the number exiting... sure those kind of numbers are going to fluctuate from week to week, but overall, bitcoin is probably continuing to expand its user base far beyond supply of bitcoin... possibly, we could get some dropping of price over the next several months into the lower three hundreds... but I would hardly dramatize that into a crash, even if it were to happen.. which I am having my doubts about that, too... seems that we are likely going to be going up soon... but maybe this stagnation and even some additional decline will last a few more months.. a couple of scenarios.. that will likely cause me to continue to HODL and BUY... and NOT inclined to SELL at these prices, unless I replace soon thereafter.

Quote from: jonoiv on April 09, 2014, 12:11:53 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 09, 2014, 03:54:19 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 09, 2014, 03:53:31 AM

sorry my mistake, it's $5-6 per day.

I think you missed the point entirely

huge dumps everywhere

An, in what year are going to answer the question, along with responding to the posts with similarly repeated questions ?

Quote from: jonoiv on April 09, 2014, 12:16:59 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 09, 2014, 12:15:15 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 09, 2014, 12:11:53 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 09, 2014, 03:54:19 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 09, 2014, 03:53:31 AM

sorry my mistake, it's $5-6 per day.

I think you missed the point entirely

huge dumps everywhere

$5 move = huge dump? still miss the point.

All MACD in the red... you are missing the point

OM F'ng G....... Let's look over there while Jonoiv escapes with the loot (and fails to respond to the question(s))

Quote from: p0peji on April 09, 2014, 12:22:33 PM

Seems like a lot of people buying on Huobi (probably wall street), people must be realizing that the downtrend will be reversed soon. Within a few months price will be at 100k $ per bitcoin, I am holding and buying.

ME TOO!!!!!

Quote from: p0peji on April 09, 2014, 12:30:45 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 09, 2014, 12:25:59 PM

Quote from: p0peji on April 09, 2014, 12:22:33 PM

Seems like a lot of people buying on Huobi (probably wall street), people must be realizing that the downtrend will be reversed soon. Within a few months price will be at 100k $ per bitcoin, I am holding and buying.

Lolol

just checking... you're being sarcastic ... right?

EDIT: dude is serious Cheesy

thats the funniest thing I ever read...

"people buying on Huobi (probably wall street)"

how exactly are they funding this? how will they deposit their money? Is King Mansa Musa buying too Cheesy

Sorry I am just having a blast here with the bulls.

Yeah.... we are suffering quite the tragedy... OMG... Bitcoin is dead...

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 09, 2014, 05:08:40 PM

Looking at the volume, it appears to be one of the tremors before the big quake. The recovery to $445 is on no volume at all. I pulled one of my re-buy orders until I find out what the hell is going on. How can there be that many limit buy orders with no market-order buying?

There appears to be much expectation for a major liquidity event in the downward direction. There is a minute chance that this is a head-fake by whales, but I seriously doubt it.
If you can't spot the sucker at the poker table, then you are the sucker. I'm folding my hand to conserve chips.

What's that mean, exactly?

I thought that you were all in Fiat at $456 or $458 or something like that.

So at this point, you could buy some BTC back at a profit, no? and then if we dip lower, buy some more... unless you are saying that you are just going to sit out this roller coaster (a kind of train) in fiat?

Personally, I would rather sit it out in BTC, but each of us have our own levels of diversification or hedge.

Quote from: ChartBuddy on April 09, 2014, 07:00:30 PM

Explanation

We are back to a fairly solidified 444.

Confirmed!

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 09, 2014, 07:23:43 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 09, 2014, 06:42:56 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 09, 2014, 05:08:40 PM

Looking at the volume, it appears to be one of the tremors before the big quake. The recovery to $445 is on no volume at all. I pulled one of my re-buy orders until I find out what the hell is going on. How can there be that many limit buy orders with no market-order buying?

There appears to be much expectation for a major liquidity event in the downward direction. There is a minute chance that this is a head-fake by whales, but I seriously doubt it.
If you can't spot the sucker at the poker table, then you are the sucker. I'm folding my hand to conserve chips.

What's that mean, exactly?

I thought that you were all in Fiat at $456 or $458 or something like that.

So at this point, you could buy some BTC back at a profit, no? and then if we dip lower, buy some more... unless you are saying that you are just going to sit out this roller coaster (a kind of train) in fiat?

Personally, I would rather sit it out in BTC, but each of us have our own levels of diversification or hedge.

A 6$ profit after a $600 drop from the ATH? Yeah, I'll get right on that.

That's just it. Since most of my holdings are in cold storage, I'm using my trading stash as a hedge right now. I've seen bitcoin prices go stupid high and stupid low. They are low now, but they aren't stupid low, considering China AND Gox. I'm a Bitcoin true believer, but I think that works against me as a day trader. I'm trying to zero out my bias, but I may be overdoing it. I don't know what to do. I suspect that these buy walls are not there out of demand for cheap coins, but out of fear of a further drop. There is almost nothing on the other side of $400.

Why would anyone put in orders below $400, when the probability of such seems so low and also, seems that they have to get through the supra $400 walls first?

And, the truth of the matter, seems to be a broken record repeated theme that NONE of us really knows which way it is gonna go. We seemed to have gotten another $10 squeeze downward this morning, which caused me to buy a little more. I would be very surprised to see anything much below $420 - for more than a flash crash... ... but, yep, anything remains within the realm of possibilities.... including the suggestion that something fishy is up.. especially, if we have a mini dump .. and suspecting something else will follow from that.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 09, 2014, 10:10:06 PM

There are many ways to manipulate a market, but the ultimate enemy of a manipulator is time. If you have the patience, price will always return to it's real value. If it doesn't return ,then by definition it's not manipulation.

What really worries me is the talk of the bulls on this thread. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs. The sunken cost fallacy is a real observed market phenomenon.
Most of you have not had to hold an underwater bitcoin position for years. I have. It was not a smart thing to do. It was an act of faith. How strong is your bitcoin faith? The market will test you.

Bitcoin isn't dead. Not even close, but if you don't think it's even possible to get much much worse before it gets better, then I can assure you it can. With all the talk about Gox and China, what worries me is if some other completely unrelated disaster happens before we've recovered. Bad guys don't play fair. They will kick you when you're down. They are out there. I'm intentionally being discouraging right now. It's better to get out now if you're going to get out than to hold on until you can't hold on any longer. Bitcoin doesn't need you to go broke for the cause. Honey Badger don't care.

NOT causing me to sell.

I will wait it out and keep buying BTC as the prices go down to $200 or even lower... but I tend to doubt the likelihood of that $200 scenario - even though I agree with you that such a scenario is possible.

Quote from: fonzie on April 10, 2014, 01:55:43 AM

Thursday will be DUMPsday once again.

I dunno... We got a $10 decrease in the last 15 hours .. but then price currently floating, largely between upper $430s and lower $440s...

Doesnt necessarily mean that the price will continue to go down..

Maybe lucky to get into the mid-$420s before Sunday.. then when Sunday comes, maybe will be the question about whether we would start a slow BTC price uptick from there?

May be a good week to take off from BTC, although I am still considering buying some on Saturday?

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 10, 2014, 04:15:53 AM

I think I was born with excessive empathy. I feel horrible for you guys and I'm full fiat. You're buying into a meat grinder. Hidden miracle whale is your only hope. I could throw everything I have at that and it wouldn't make a hiccup. The ask walls are dropping. 1100 coins to $445.

make that 1200 coins.

Good.. your mood has improved. Cheesy

Quote from: af_newbie on April 10, 2014, 04:29:33 AM

Quote from: fonzie on April 10, 2014, 04:26:05 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 10, 2014, 04:24:23 AM

Quote from: fonzie on April 10, 2014, 04:20:42 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 10, 2014, 04:18:39 AM

Quote from: fonzie on April 10, 2014, 04:16:37 AM

Now is really the time to discuss 15m formations, lolololol
Cup&handle on the 1m spotted
reversed head&shoulder on the 3m
......

Chaos will enfold soon!

where do you think the bottom is ?

~350 in the next 18 hours

Long term bottom in the next months around 100$

Not sure id want to pay $350.. I'll wait for a better offer Cheesy

I would never ever buy in at this point, but we might stay there for a few hours/days due to consolidation.

Why not, I took a bite at 425.2

I've been buying a little here and there, too. I buy on the way down and sell on the way up...

I buy on the way down b/c I do NOT know how far the price is going to go down.... We have NOT even broken $420, yet.... so I am glad that I did NOT sell at what may be the bottom... but maybe we will get $410 over the weekend, before starting to move back up....

Quote from: octaft on April 10, 2014, 04:36:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 10, 2014, 04:34:33 AM

I've been buying a little here and there, too. I buy on the way down and sell on the way up...

I buy on the way down b/c I do NOT know how far the price is going to go down.... We have NOT even broken $420, yet.... so I am glad that I did NOT sell at what may be the bottom... but maybe we will get $410 over the weekend, before starting to move back up....

Isn't buying at $1000+ like, the opposite of buying on the way down?

That's when I started at $1200.... and then I have been buying when prices going down... yep.

You want to make fun out of that system?

Quote from: shmadz on April 10, 2014, 04:47:04 AM

Quote from: TeeBone on April 10, 2014, 04:44:20 AM

Was thinking a few days ago bidding at lower 400's would be a safe, smart play even for bears. i am quickly changing my mind.

I told a guy I know that was interested in bitcoin a week ago that I thought breaking through 400 CAD was unlikely.

I told him again today that I no longer held that view.

I am feeling now that we might go below 400, until the point of maximum pain.

on this journey, simply remember...

“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
― Frank Herbert, Dune

Maximum pain would be below $200, no?

Quote from: av123 on April 10, 2014, 04:58:59 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 10, 2014, 04:57:47 AM

Much more pleasant that previous lows. No ddos. No large embezzlement.

LOL. No frappuccinos in sight this time.

I read that Mark K. cannot even be found these days.. and the fear is that he is NOT going to show for any of his court dates... .. but maybe that it is tomorrow's news.. we got china and australia to deal with, today.

Quote from: seleme on April 10, 2014, 05:00:49 AM

Fairly low volume still, bulls still defying China news.

YEAH>... bulls still HODLin....

Quote from: octaft on April 10, 2014, 05:06:59 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 10, 2014, 05:02:36 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 10, 2014, 04:36:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 10, 2014, 04:34:33 AM

I've been buying a little here and there, too. I buy on the way down and sell on the way up...

I buy on the way down b/c I do NOT know how far the price is going to go down.... We have NOT even broken $420, yet.... so I am glad that I did NOT sell at what may be the bottom... but maybe we will get $410 over the weekend, before starting to move back up....

Isn't buying at $1000+ like, the opposite of buying on the way down?

That's when I started at $1200.... and then I have been buying when prices going down... yep.

You want to make fun out of that system?

How can you call it "on the way down" when you started at the very top? Clearly that $1200 purchase was waaaay on the way up.

Yes, that is when I started.. I bought 1.245 BTC for $1500 on Localbitcoin to start out.. Then thereafter I bought on dips... and mostly on the way down. It took me a little more than a week to set up an account on coinbase to be able to continue to buy on coinbase after that. So what's the problem? except for the fact that you are looking from your own perspective. You do NOT know anything about my total investment portfolio, my risk aversion, my reasons for getting into BTC. You want to criticize without knowing particulars.. for what reason? Are you trying to teach me something? to say I told you so? to say that I did something wrong? What's your point, exactly?

Quote from: BBmodBB on April 10, 2014, 05:11:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 10, 2014, 05:06:39 AM

Quote from: shmadz on April 10, 2014, 04:47:04 AM

Quote from: TeeBone on April 10, 2014, 04:44:20 AM

Was thinking a few days ago bidding at lower 400's would be a safe, smart play even for bears. i am quickly changing my mind.

I told a guy I know that was interested in bitcoin a week ago that I thought breaking through 400 CAD was unlikely.

I told him again today that I no longer held that view.

I am feeling now that we might go below 400, until the point of maximum pain.

on this journey, simply remember...

“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
― Frank Herbert, Dune

Maximum pain would be below $200, no?

$150 ~ FULL RETARD,,, imo =) lol

Something like $150 would be painful.. will it go down quickly or take 3-12 months to get there. I think that I could hang with $150 if it took a year to get there, but that price point would surely weed out quite a few weak hands... and yes, if it took 24 months to get there, then probably some pretty negative news would need to be in play.....

Quote from: BBmodBB on April 10, 2014, 05:26:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 10, 2014, 05:11:49 AM

Quote from: av123 on April 10, 2014, 04:58:59 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 10, 2014, 04:57:47 AM

Much more pleasant that previous lows. No ddos. No large embezzlement.

LOL. No frappuccinos in sight this time.

I read that Mark K. cannot even be found these days.. and the fear is that he is NOT going to show for any of his court dates... .. but maybe that it is tomorrow's news.. we got china and australia to deal with, today.

^maybe it wasn't his idea but he had every chance to turn things around and he just let it ride so i dunno ~ dead or in the Bahamas? =\

I would bet on something Bahamas like... but he's gotta try to go somewhere where he and his cat will NOT stand out... and maybe buy his own frappuccino machine.. so he wont have to go out too much.

Quote from: BBmodBB on April 10, 2014, 05:29:02 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 10, 2014, 05:25:24 AM

Quote from: BBmodBB on April 10, 2014, 05:11:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 10, 2014, 05:06:39 AM

Quote from: shmadz on April 10, 2014, 04:47:04 AM

Quote from: TeeBone on April 10, 2014, 04:44:20 AM

Was thinking a few days ago bidding at lower 400's would be a safe, smart play even for bears. i am quickly changing my mind.

I told a guy I know that was interested in bitcoin a week ago that I thought breaking through 400 CAD was unlikely.

I told him again today that I no longer held that view.

I am feeling now that we might go below 400, until the point of maximum pain.

on this journey, simply remember...

“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
― Frank Herbert, Dune

Maximum pain would be below $200, no?

$150 ~ FULL RETARD,,, imo =) lol

Something like $150 would be painful.. will it go down quickly or take 3-12 months to get there. I think that I could hang with $150 if it took a year to get there, but that price point would surely weed out quite a few weak hands... and yes, if it took 24 months to get there, then probably some pretty negative news would need to be in play.....

i vote for hard and fast to $250 then mega bounce to $3000-$5000 with tons of madness + circus acts ! LOL =)

Wait!!!! you are switching from $150 to $250... Probably would weed out more weak hands at $150... but it would probably be very difficult to hold that price point.. absent additional bad news...

Quote from: octaft on April 10, 2014, 05:34:07 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 10, 2014, 05:20:51 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 10, 2014, 05:06:59 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 10, 2014, 05:02:36 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 10, 2014, 04:36:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 10, 2014, 04:34:33 AM

I've been buying a little here and there, too. I buy on the way down and sell on the way up...

I buy on the way down b/c I do NOT know how far the price is going to go down.... We have NOT even broken $420, yet.... so I am glad that I did NOT sell at what may be the bottom... but maybe we will get $410 over the weekend, before starting to move back up....

Isn't buying at $1000+ like, the opposite of buying on the way down?

That's when I started at $1200.... and then I have been buying when prices going down... yep.

You want to make fun out of that system?

How can you call it "on the way down" when you started at the very top? Clearly that $1200 purchase was waaaay on the way up.

Yes, that is when I started.. I bought 1.245 BTC for $1500 on Localbitcoin to start out.. Then thereafter I bought on dips... and mostly on the way down. It took me a little more than a week to set up an account on coinbase to be able to continue to buy on coinbase after that. So what's the problem? except for the fact that you are looking from your own perspective. You do NOT know anything about my total investment portfolio, my risk aversion, my reasons for getting into BTC. You want to criticize without knowing particulars.. for what reason? Are you trying to teach me something? to say I told you so? to say that I did something wrong? What's your point, exactly?

My point is exactly what I said, you didn't start by buying on the way down. Starting by buying on the way down would have put your first purchase at about $800 or something. It's easy to buy on the way down when all it's doing is going down, but be honest: if the bubble had ended at $2000, would you have been buying straight up to the top thinking it would never end?

Surely it is possible that I misspoke somewhere along the line; however, my point is that my recent strategy was buying BTC on the way down. That has been my preferred buying strategy... even though I got in towards the peak prices.

However, when I first started investing in BTC, in the end of November, I did NOT know how far up BTC prices were going to go, I was attempting to front load a little bit for the first month b/c I had NO idea if the price would keep going up to $2000 or whatever.... but it took some time to get my various accounts going (which ended up being my coinbase account for purchases)

So once my account was able to buy daily then I budgeted to buy several times during each day an allocated amount of fiat until I felt that I had accumulated somewhat of a stake into BTC. So I would try to buy at low price points during each day - and I had considered that as a form of daily dollar cost averaging, with front loading of my investment.

A little more than three weeks into my investment, right before christmas, I had accumulated about 13.5 BTC and my average buy-in price at that point was $764 and I had a little more than $8,000 invested into BTC. Thereafter I adapted my strategy a little bit.... but largely intended to be buying mostly while prices were on their way down. This practice has been pretty easy, since prices have been going down a lot between the end of December and present. I would sell on the way up, if I were to get sufficiently into the black... At this point, it seems that it may take a little while to get sufficiently into the black.. as BTC matters are currently progressing in a seemingly downward trajectory.

So does that make sense to you, or do you want to grill me some more to attempt to figure our whether I am pulling your leg.. or not following a sound practice or you want to criticize some thing that I am doing or to suggest that I am either lying to myself or incompetent or some negative motives or you want to try to suggest some other investment strategy or you are engaging in Monday morning quarter-backing?

In any event, hopefully, I have clarified sufficiently for you to understand my earlier statement(s).

By the way, What's your story? Do you have some personal investment details that you can share (sort of a quid pro quo)? Surely people have different investment approaches, depending upon when they got in, their risk profile, their other investments and maybe even depending on their reasons for getting in. Part of my original motivation remains my current motivation and that is to diversify or hedge my dollar investments. I feel that I have way too much of my total investments in the dollar.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 10, 2014, 05:50:49 AM

I BEGGED you assholes to dump on the dead cat bounce and buy back when $400 was retested. You could have increased your BTC holdings without spending an extra dime.

YEAH.... right.. .NOW you are calling names and acting self-righteous... You can really be a turd.. sometimes.. ... while you are shitting your pants a day ago... ..

This current situation was hardly very probable in the minds of many of us, as you know different people gave their probabilities, and you even succumbed to describing this scenario as a long shot.

Quote from: TeeBone on April 10, 2014, 05:56:08 AM

Quote from: seleme on April 10, 2014, 05:53:17 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 10, 2014, 05:50:49 AM

I BEGGED you assholes to dump on the dead cat bounce and buy back when $400 was retested. You could have increased your BTC holdings without spending an extra dime.

Says the asshole who was insulting other people's mums when everybody with half brain could saw it's going below 600$.

Fuck off you moron, don't play the smart arse game here..

Is he not allowed to switch gears ?

He's been very consistent since he turned short-term bear, he hasnt flip-flopped.

He's been mostly an ass... even though, he may have had a few posts that contained some civility and common courtesy.

Quote from: Wary on April 10, 2014, 06:33:39 AM

The number of personal insults in speculation subforums is at ATH. Is it bearish of bullish?

Fuck off you asshole!!!!!!

H hehe hehe ha... just kidding.

It's called volatility.

Quote from: TeeBone on April 10, 2014, 07:28:00 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 10, 2014, 07:20:55 AM

Quote from: TeeBone on April 10, 2014, 05:56:08 AM

Quote from: seleme on April 10, 2014, 05:53:17 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 10, 2014, 05:50:49 AM

I BEGGED you assholes to dump on the dead cat bounce and buy back when $400 was retested. You could have increased your BTC holdings without spending an extra dime.

Says the asshole who was insulting other people's mums when everybody with half brain could saw it's going below 600$.

Fuck off you moron, don't play the smart arse game here..

Is he not allowed to switch gears ?

He's been very consistent since he turned short-term bear, he hasnt flip-flopped.

He's been mostly an ass... even though, he may have had a few posts that contained some civility and common courtesy.

lol the bullcult is hilarious, you devour anyone who breaks rank. Kind of like joining the mafia.

There is NO such thing as a cult or group think...

Just everyone seemed to reach a similar conclusion regarding the tone of BJA's post....

And, BJA is far from devoured (or a victim). He is a product of his own making by dishing out insults, he causes others to treat him similarly or maybe even worse. I am fairly certain that he is going to jump back in with some of his arrogance... and possibly even losing sight that he causes his own negative energy - whether there is such a thing as carma or not..

It is NIce of you, TeeBone, to defend him, though. Wink

Quote from: octaft on April 10, 2014, 07:29:44 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 10, 2014, 07:10:32 AM

So does that make sense to you, or do you want to grill me some more to attempt to figure our whether I am pulling your leg.. or not following a sound practice or you want to criticize some thing that I am doing or to suggest that I am either lying to myself or incompetent or some negative motives or you want to try to suggest some other investment strategy or you are engaging in Monday morning quarter-backing?

In any event, hopefully, I have clarified sufficiently for you to understand my earlier statement(s).

By the way, What's your story? Do you have some personal investment details that you can share (sort of a quid pro quo)? Surely people have different investment approaches, depending upon when they got in, their risk profile, their other investments and maybe even depending on their reasons for getting in. Part of my original motivation remains my current motivation and that is to diversify or hedge my dollar investments. I feel that I have way too much of my total investments in the dollar.

I grilled you some, so I suppose I could give you a little back: I had a decent amount of bitcoin that I bought for an average of $5, held straight through the first bubble. I sold at $200 originally, then when I saw all the buying pressure at $266 bought back in, and started selling all the way up in small but increasing amounts once we hit about 400 (started too early, for sure). I sold everything leftover that I was willing to sell (which was still a good chunk of it) at a little over 1000 based on some sentiment indicators: my friend who never gave a shit about bitcoin suddenly asked if he should buy (I told him no, of course), I read a bitcoin market analyst who a lot of people listen to (you can see some of his analysis being regurgitated by people on this forum) call a 3300 top, and because I noticed that buying pressure subsided substantially after 1000. If you look back, I was dropping warning hints that maybe people shouldn't be so overzealous a little ways after we broke 1000. After the initial double top and drop, I was told I was just lucky, which, who knows? That could very well be the case.

Thanks for sharing some of your personal circumstances. Of course there is some luck, but also, there are a lot of advantages to being actively into something for a while in order to know whether to invest or not or how much to invest. If I had known you in November 2013, I may or may NOT have adjusted my strategy... Sometimes it does help to have consultation from someone who has some experience.

More or less, I had $30,000 to invest in November 2013, and I chose to begin investing with $1,500.. and to spread the remainder of the $30K over 6 months... that was my strategy based on what little I had studied into bitcoin for about 3 weeks before I started investing. There were some timing issues b/c if I had heard earlier or later, my strategy would have been adjusted somewhat. It's been an interesting ride for me, and surely it is NOT even close to being over.

Quote from: TeeBone on April 10, 2014, 07:53:42 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 10, 2014, 07:52:08 AM

Quote from: TeeBone on April 10, 2014, 07:50:12 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 10, 2014, 07:46:13 AM

Quote from: TeeBone on April 10, 2014, 07:42:29 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 10, 2014, 07:32:14 AM

Quote from: TeeBone on April 10, 2014, 07:13:48 AM

Wall is going DOWN.

300's here we come.

Bears rejoice, our time has come !

Really? What are you people gonna do? Buy tons of Bitcoins at 380 or sit on the forum crying all day how we will go down because you want cheap coins at 280?
I think i know.

I pretty much havent changed my position for quite a while. Until we see maximum pain, i think it'll continue to tumble.

This market is hell-bent on shaking out the bagholders and lottery-ticket types. 275-350 would do the trick, imo. Then, i'll turn bullish when i see some major volume buying.

Huh? You just said your time has come but now you suddenly don't want to buy because there are cheap coins at 275.
Who would've guessed. Oh wait, i did, 10 minutes ago.

Um, you're lost or high.

Say hello to the other idiots on my ignore list. Buh bye.

Aww, poor bulls on the rag. Cant handle that they were WRONG hehe !!

You should be honored to be on his ignore list. He just wants to spew non-sense all day, and as soon as anyone challenges it or maybe causes him/her/it to think beyond some superficial slogan, ignored you become.

Quote from: FelixO on April 10, 2014, 08:27:02 AM

What's this, the 'rebound'? Cheesy

I ran out of money in my bank account, and new money is not due to arrive in my account until Friday... so I am kind of lighter on the BTC buying than I would have liked. Fuck.

Quote from: macsga on April 10, 2014, 08:31:55 AM

WARNING!!!

Legit TA follows:

Double bottom formed at $400

CCMF!!!!1

There seems to be problems with that TA.

The double bottom may be forming but it is NOT formed in the chart. IN that regard, I can see that the double bottom is on its way, and it appears to be a nice one, but at the moment, at best it is only a 1 1/4 bottom.

Quote from: macsga on April 10, 2014, 09:20:29 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on April 10, 2014, 09:14:46 AM

Who knows its a mystery at this point, I beleive the oral communication part was between Huobi and their bank though not their bank and pboc?

For some strange reason, I tend to intimate the bold letters above with sex... it might just be that I've a long time to get laid. Kiss

Yeah... if we could get some decent choo choo mf... then decent appreciation of our BTC holdings, then can use some of those proceeds for recreating..... which helps to have some free time and a little extra cash.. and make recreating easier.

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on April 10, 2014, 10:33:37 AM

Well, one more time, it really looks like its over. I HODL but lets see how this one works out. I almost halved all my savings in just a few weeks, buying @700 Shocked

You can also buy some more, no? and then your average BTC buy price will drop.

NOT always practical for everyone, but a possibility for you?

Quote from: rpietila on April 10, 2014, 08:42:25 PM

Quote from: mmitech on April 10, 2014, 08:18:06 PM

your first prediction of flash crash to 400 was right but your second prediction on the reversal was and is wrong, you have been calling a reversal from 550 all the way down to $400, sadly we broke that 400.

now there is 2 scary facts, China is really closing accounts on the 15th of April and this is confirmed, now Australia will be closing all Bitcoin business related accounts on the 2nd of may; now it is unclear for me how there is a chance of a reversal !! till then, I don't know if we reached the bottom yet...

My approach to predictions: If I make a 50/50 prediction, I aim to be "right" exactly 50% of the time. If I make 70/30 (that was perhaps my feeling after the Feb-25 crash) I still need to be "wrong" every third time, otherwise I am playing too safe. If you don't understand this, better not listen to me at all.

Rational investors discount the future to the present, and all information commonly available is already priced in. Now, Bitcoin is very far from an efficient market, and therefore there is a mispricing going on. I am moving funds to exchange if nothing else helps to correct/profit from the situation. I think this is the biggest reason why the reversal/recovery is sluggish: whales like me are scared as hell to send the million$ back to exchanges, no matter if they were originally earned by selling bitcoins or if it is new money. It is the shadow of Gox again.

Please somebody sell me bitcoins at $389, off-exchange, BTC100 minimum. Please.

So you seem to be describing my theory, as well. That the exchanges push BTC prices down b/c big cats (or whales) are NOT storing their fiat there.... for exactly the GOX fears you mentioned. Accordingly, the exchanges are disproportionately BTC laden and BTC holder's ability to push down prices by selling lots of BTC.

Are you also saying that you do NOT have any avenues to buy large quantity of BTC off of the exchanges?

I suspect that some whales are finding ways to transact directly from time to time, and accordingly, they are using the exchange price as their price guideline for such large transactions. Some of the work on decentralized exchanges will hopefully solve some of these issues, but as soon as we begin to touch fiat, then we are getting back to some kind of bank(s) involvement.

Quote from: BBmodBB on April 10, 2014, 09:00:02 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 10, 2014, 08:56:42 PM

Quote from: BBmodBB on April 10, 2014, 08:45:10 PM

you are sooo full of shit! =) ^i'll sell you as many as you want@ $389!

I doubt you have BTC100 considering your posting history, but just in case I'm mistaken, send as many as you like here and PM your wire info. Price is the Bitstamp last trade for each of the transfers.

cash talks shit walks!!! =) it's me fucker, i'm calling you out on your bullshit(->just like the $700 BTC you re-nigged on)

Wink

SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!!

Yeah.. what if each person wants to do the deal. $389 for 100 BTC?

I would NOT want to deal with someone like BBmodBB. He seems pretty shady... But, if I can be assured that my deal is going to be honored, then I have NO problem dealing with anyone... even if they were to call me names... ... as long as they have what I want, and the deal goes through without major drama.

So in that regard, I figure out how to send my $38,900, and I want him to give me the 100BTC. It almost seems necessary to involve a third party in these circumstances.. I certainly would NOT want to meet in person... when someone is acting like a jerk.. unless maybe there is some assurances.... or do you have a mechanism to hold these in escrow... ?

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 01:14:04 AM

I love those guys who told me to fuck off. What am I doing now? fucking off. I'm not buying. You pissed off one of the guys who could save you. (not really. I'd have to care)

Should I start buying yet?

Nah. I can wait.

Will I miss the bottom? Prolly. I have so much cash I don't have to care. Some trader smarter than me will catch it and "save" Bitcoin without even meaning to. The decentral bankers of Bitcoin: The bad ones pay the good ones and the good ones reduce volatility. Clearly we need more good ones and that's what I'm learning to be.

OK... GOOD bye....

Maybe you will buy back in at $700? Losing out may come when a guy get's too greedy...

Quote from: prophetx on April 11, 2014, 01:44:41 AM

Quote from: derpinheimer on April 11, 2014, 01:38:24 AM

I think $339.8 was the bottom. Whats ya'lls thoughts?

not even close, this gonna get fugly me thinks

I kept thinking that the battle was going to be continued this weekend b/c fiat is usually thin on the weekends on the exchanges and BTC rich whales take opportunities to dump..

Accordingly maybe monday or tuesday we may get a reversal?

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 03:13:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 11, 2014, 02:56:34 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 01:14:04 AM

I love those guys who told me to fuck off. What am I doing now? fucking off. I'm not buying. You pissed off one of the guys who could save you. (not really. I'd have to care)

Should I start buying yet?

Nah. I can wait.

Will I miss the bottom? Prolly. I have so much cash I don't have to care. Some trader smarter than me will catch it and "save" Bitcoin without even meaning to. The decentral bankers of Bitcoin: The bad ones pay the good ones and the good ones reduce volatility. Clearly we need more good ones and that's what I'm learning to be.

OK... GOOD bye....

Maybe you will buy back in at $700? Losing out may come when a guy get's too greedy...

Losing out at cheap coins may come when you are impatient. The only thing I think I'm missing out on now is the opportunity to punish the optimistic. From an ROI perspective, it doesn't matter how many coins you buy or at what price. It only matters that you get the direction of price travel right and the amount of movement.

Run along, now. Daddy's got work to do.

I was fairly impressed with the seeming self-restraint of your post, until I arrived at the last line.

You could NOT resist, and for some strange reasons (possibly only known to yourself - although you may NOT be able to control yourself), you had to throw in some patronizing comment.

A Funny comment for highschool aged socializing, but does NOT seem to be a comment among mature and/or properly groomed adults.

Quote from: podyx on April 11, 2014, 03:20:59 AM

Fuck, im tired of this downtrend

we need something new! perhaps an uptrend Roll Eyes

I am thinking that Monday or Tuesday or sometime soon thereafter the uptrend may possibly begin.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 03:45:54 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 11, 2014, 03:41:04 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 03:13:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 11, 2014, 02:56:34 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 01:14:04 AM

I love those guys who told me to fuck off. What am I doing now? fucking off. I'm not buying. You pissed off one of the guys who could save you. (not really. I'd have to care)

Should I start buying yet?

Nah. I can wait.

Will I miss the bottom? Prolly. I have so much cash I don't have to care. Some trader smarter than me will catch it and "save" Bitcoin without even meaning to. The decentral bankers of Bitcoin: The bad ones pay the good ones and the good ones reduce volatility. Clearly we need more good ones and that's what I'm learning to be.

OK... GOOD bye....

Maybe you will buy back in at $700? Losing out may come when a guy get's too greedy...

Losing out at cheap coins may come when you are impatient. The only thing I think I'm missing out on now is the opportunity to punish the optimistic. From an ROI perspective, it doesn't matter how many coins you buy or at what price. It only matters that you get the direction of price travel right and the amount of movement.

Run along, now. Daddy's got work to do.

I was fairly impressed with the seeming self-restraint of your post, until I arrived at the last line.

You could NOT resist, and for some strange reasons (possibly only known to yourself - although you may NOT be able to control yourself), you had to throw in some patronizing comment.

A Funny comment for highschool aged socializing, but does NOT seem to be a comment among mature and/or properly groomed adults.

Lighten up, Man. You gotta know I do it to bug you. We're all learning here.

Just b/c I do NOT want to behave as if I were still in high school does NOT mean that I am NOT lightened up.

If you feel that you need to throw out patronizing statements in order to have fun with others, then something seems to be wrong with your psycho/social well-being?

Do you talk like that to people you meet in person also?

Even though the internet is NOT in-person, these are people on the other end of the keyboard... at least most of us... there may be a few bots.. like shroomskit seems kind of like a bot - a bird-bot. or a dog-bot.

Quote from: BitChick on April 11, 2014, 04:00:00 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 03:58:19 AM

at least for a few minutes, that guy who dumped at $340's got to be feeling pretty stupid.

Few minutes? If he does not buy back ASAP he could feel stupid for a lifetime! Wink

That is assuming that these guys are dumping to make money in the short-term. Some of these dumps are probably NOT directly profitable... and those costs of unprofitable dumps may likely be built in.. to get bigger rewards in other ways and on other days.

Quote from: seleme on April 11, 2014, 04:03:06 AM

Quote from: BitChick on April 11, 2014, 04:00:00 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 03:58:19 AM

at least for a few minutes, that guy who dumped at $340's got to be feeling pretty stupid.

Few minutes? If he does not buy back ASAP he could feel stupid for a lifetime! Wink

Doubt it. Final bottoms don't get such weak bounces.

I know that we are all speculating here... but When do you think the $340 will be retested? in the next several hours? or over the weekend or sometime later? It seems if they are going to retest, it is better to do it while there is some momentum.. sooner rather than later.

Quote from: nanobrain on April 11, 2014, 04:09:44 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 11, 2014, 04:03:38 AM

...patronizing statements ...

pots and kettles

I suppose you do NOT want to be too direct?

So, accordingly, I do NOT understand the significance of your statement or your observation.

Quote from: nanobrain on April 11, 2014, 04:11:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 11, 2014, 04:07:02 AM

Quote from: BitChick on April 11, 2014, 04:00:00 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 03:58:19 AM

at least for a few minutes, that guy who dumped at $340's got to be feeling pretty stupid.

Few minutes? If he does not buy back ASAP he could feel stupid for a lifetime! Wink

That is assuming that these guys are dumping to make money in the short-term. Some of these dumps are probably NOT directly profitable... and those costs of unprofitable dumps may likely be built in.. to get bigger rewards in other ways and on other days.

@BitChick, agreed.

I have no idea what JJG is talking about but if we could power BTC on hot air we'd be laughing Cheesy

O.k. If you do not understand, that's fine.

You don't really seem to want to get into any substantive discussions of anything anyhow..

You seem to just want to throw out random comments, insults or to purposefully speak vaguely. I prefer NOT to have those kinds of non-grounded conversations anyhow.

Quote from: aminorex on April 11, 2014, 04:13:03 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on April 11, 2014, 04:09:44 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 11, 2014, 04:03:38 AM

...patronizing statements ...

pots and kettles

that's racist

he he he .. o.k now I get it....

Nanobrain likes to speak vaguely and with out specifics... so I will await for him to provide specifics before exploring this topic further.

Quote from: seleme on April 11, 2014, 04:17:22 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 11, 2014, 04:14:26 AM

Quote from: seleme on April 11, 2014, 04:03:06 AM

Quote from: BitChick on April 11, 2014, 04:00:00 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 03:58:19 AM

at least for a few minutes, that guy who dumped at $340's got to be feeling pretty stupid.

Few minutes? If he does not buy back ASAP he could feel stupid for a lifetime! Wink

Doubt it. Final bottoms don't get such weak bounces.

I know that we are all speculating here... but When do you think the $340 will be retested? in the next several hours? or over the weekend or sometime later? It seems if they are going to retest, it is better to do it while there is some momentum.. sooner rather than later.

Not necessarily immediately but it might happen, it's been long downtrend and with China stuff neverending story you never know when it will hit again.

I don't have idea really, just doesn't look as proper bounce from final bottom and I am playing it safe this time even if it means buying higher.

I was thinking that we were going to get some downward pressures over the weekend.. but you never know if we shoot back up to mid $400s, we may float there for a while.

Quote from: podyx on April 11, 2014, 06:08:04 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 11, 2014, 06:07:13 AM

just got home from work..... nice!! what a rally!!

Uptrends automatically makes every day a good day Grin

So the Australian limitations do NOT seem to play into keeping this down, necessarily. That news is still a little vague too..... but at least seems more clear than any news that comes out of china.

Quote from: octaft on April 11, 2014, 08:18:37 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on April 11, 2014, 08:11:31 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 11, 2014, 08:07:45 AM

He's not annoying to me, but he does seem kinda full if it, considering he was calling bottom like $100-$150 ago.

It's annoying when you ask him to tone the arrogance down and he misrepresents you and then attempts to coerce you.

Yeah I believe the post was edited before I saw it because I'm not sure what you're referencing with the misrepresentation thing.

There are plenty of people who pull the same nonsense. If you keep calling the bottom/top all the way down/up, you're eventually going to be right, and then you can brag about it while editing posts in which you were wrong.

Your best bet in my opinion is not to waste your time crusading against it, because it won't work, and because the only people suckered in are the ones who don't care to spend the time to educate themselves on how to do the analysis on their own. That being said, I don't tell people what to do with their lives, so if you wish to continue arguing with people like that, you don't need my permission. You guys are kinda crushing him, and it is pretty entertaining, so if it floats your boat, do your thing.

I would think that Chestnut becomes annoying only in the sense that he is having troubles knowing how to effectively respond to personal attacks from a few of you posters, who are tricky and he is having trouble reacting so he employs some of the same less than honest spin techniques to exaggerate points.

I am NOT annoyed by it, but I do get a sense that Chestnut is outgunned by some tricky bullies. I personally, attempt NOT to sink to the low levels to get back at you guys, but he seems to think that may be an effective technique.

Also @ Creekbore: I think that speculation is fair in this thread.. this thread is in the speculation subsection of the forum... I agree that sometimes too much speculation can be annoying especially when it seems to shift too frequently, but a lot of us are guilty of the same thing.. shifting speculations based on new facts and reassessments of the situation in front of us.

Quote from: runam0k on April 11, 2014, 08:39:19 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 11, 2014, 08:18:37 AM

There are plenty of people who pull the same nonsense. If you keep calling the bottom/top all the way down/up, you're eventually going to be right, and then you can brag about it while editing posts in which you were wrong.

Easy to call him out by pointing to his original posts on the mirror site.

We should NOT be able to edit or delete our posts after a certain period of time. That is just screwed up.

Quote from: podyx on April 11, 2014, 08:58:45 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 11, 2014, 08:54:58 AM

Quote from: runam0k on April 11, 2014, 08:39:19 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 11, 2014, 08:18:37 AM

There are plenty of people who pull the same nonsense. If you keep calling the bottom/top all the way down/up, you're eventually going to be right, and then you can brag about it while editing posts in which you were wrong.

Easy to call him out by pointing to his original posts on the mirror site.

We should NOT be able to edit or delete our posts after a certain period of time. That is just screwed up.

just so that some dickriders can brag about how good they are speculating?

lol, cmon man

The reason is b/c People should post whatever they are going to post and then it is permanent... part of the public thread.

sure it can be used to prove what you said or did not say... but so what. We should all be careful about what we say anyhow in public threads.. to attempt to get our posts accurate.. etc etc.. .

Quote from: Bagatell on April 11, 2014, 09:23:25 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 11, 2014, 09:19:58 AM

So the reason we went down 100's was fear of a potential China ban. Today we learn that China won't ban Bitcoin. What does everybody do? They sell.
Well done traders and sheep. Well done for being complete idiots.

Do you shout at clouds too?

he either barks or tweets at them.. b/c he is a dog bird

Quote from: bitluryz on April 11, 2014, 09:44:02 AM

Quote from: gizmoh on April 11, 2014, 09:38:10 AM

Okcoin bank account closure announcement today. Chinese give a fuck now, no more panic sell. We are primed for a massive pump IMO..

https://www.okcoin.com/t-1008310.html

Banking will Continue via Mobile Phones

Massive Pump incoming

I'm thinking we are going to get one more down before going up, but I am NOT so confident as to short anymore than minimum amounts of BTC maybe less than 1BTC (but I am only dealing with a small package of BTC anyhow compared to some of these cats, here).

In that regard, I plan to buy a little more (maybe 2-3 BTC) if we get down to $370-ish and if the price drop happens while I'm awake. I am trying NOT to lose anymore sleep over these price swings.

Further, I am thinking the window for such a price drop is anytime between now and early Sunday.. then starting mid-to -late Sunday prices will be more likely to be going up... That's my current thinking, but I am still open to consider other possibilities.

Quote from: aminorex on April 11, 2014, 05:37:37 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on April 11, 2014, 05:29:10 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 11, 2014, 05:27:25 PM

Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy.

For company stocks in the U.S. in aggregate buy and hold is suicidal over the next 10 years while the demographic curve forces distribution.
This summer will be the first glimpse of reality peeping into the fed-induced bubble of unreality we have enjoyed for 5 years, but just a foreshadowing really.

Seems like the democrats are going to want to prop up the economic system, at least until after the November 2014 elections, no?

I've been buying all along, and my latest buying point was around $390. I did NOT go all in at that point b/c I was anticipating that we would get another price drop on saturday or at least sometime between then and early sunday.. then, thereafter, the BTC prices would be heading upwards.

However, if we are heading upwards today, or this is a prolonged upward bull trap, then the saturday price drop may only bring us back to today's prices. It is so difficult to predict exactly if NOW is a good time to buy, or to wait a little. It is possible that we will NOT see below $400 anymore?

Quote from: aminorex on April 11, 2014, 06:03:13 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 11, 2014, 05:52:31 PM

Quote from: aminorex on April 11, 2014, 05:37:37 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on April 11, 2014, 05:29:10 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 11, 2014, 05:27:25 PM

Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy.

For company stocks in the U.S. in aggregate buy and hold is suicidal over the next 10 years while the demographic curve forces distribution.
This summer will be the first glimpse of reality peeping into the fed-induced bubble of unreality we have enjoyed for 5 years, but just a foreshadowing really.

Seems like the democrats are going to want to prop up the economic system, at least until after the November 2014 elections, no?

Can kicking only works until you run out of road, no matter how good you are at it. I expect a patch of cow trail coming up. My reasons are idiosyncratic, and most will not share them. They are also complex and ill-suited to a forum post. I apologize for providing such low-information content. The demographic curve and its correlation to p/e ratios is however both informative and easy to provenance.

You may be correct to the extent that you are suggesting that they cannot drag out until November, b/c depending upon your vehicle, it is still possible to make decent progress on a cow trail. Surely, there are a lot of balls in the air, and we are NOT always able to foresee various tricks up the sleeves. Many mixed metaphors, here... sorry about that.

Quote from: TooDumbForBitcoin on April 11, 2014, 06:04:25 PM

To Aminorex:

I'm supposed to have you on ignore, but you're posts are in the top 1%.

Question: Why do you hang out with the prols?

How can you tell if someone's posts are in the top 1%?

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 08:02:39 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on April 11, 2014, 07:13:48 PM

Quote from: Guinpen on April 11, 2014, 07:09:43 PM

420 being tested again on Stamp... when will it end?!

I don't think we are in a hurry back to 340$.

I really hope we are. A retest of $340 on higher volume and I'm back in 100% crypto. A slow painful grind back to $340 and then I have to wait until we continue to grind down to $267.

Yest, that is a question that I am considering too. However, I would think the opposite reaction would be most logical. If price moves down quickly to $340, then you wait for $267 or whatever. If price moves down slowly to $340, then you may consider that a true bottom is met, and you would get into all crypto at that point.

So, I appreciate your framing of the possible outcomes, yet I question your characterization about what you would do under either scenario... It is like you know better, but you are providing stupid ass and illogical information.. NOT hating on you, just a little irritated by your message b/c it seems to be giving weird-ass conclusions based on a hypothetical that could really happen. Since, on more than one occasion, you have asserted NOT to be purposefully deceiving anyone, maybe you can clarify what you meant?

Quote from: kurious on April 11, 2014, 08:24:05 PM

Quote from: exponential on April 11, 2014, 08:02:01 PM

The 'slings and arrows of outrageous fortune' will decide everything for you once you do

But if you're new, maybe watch and learn a little. And never go all in, or all out. If you missed buying in last night you do have time to watch a little without missing out on an all time high.

Not much money will be hitting the exchanges this weekend, so (in my worthless opinion) it has as much - if not more - chance of testing 400 as it does of getting anywhere near 500.

Things are better than they were even in the past 24 hours - but it will be a wait for choo choo trains and rockets.

That said - when it comes, it will have been worth the wait.

Isn't it true that it is already very unlikely that much more fiat will be getting into the exchanges... In other words, it is too late, for the most part, to get additional money into the exchanges. So whatever fiat is in the exchanges is in there.... Also, there is No real way to know how much fiat is in the exchanges, and the order books can give some ideas, but really that kind of information is insufficient, if there were big whale money that is NOT on the order books.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 08:32:25 PM

Quote from: serenitys on April 11, 2014, 08:13:28 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 08:11:57 PM

Quote from: Guinpen on April 11, 2014, 07:56:34 PM

WTF is happening, why are we plunging again?

This isn't a plunge. This is boring. What, you thought the market would just automatically go up forever from the exact moment you bought?

Why yes, yes we did Grin

Gonna look forward to taking your coins off of you. The best way to make money is to have money and patience. Day trading isn't luck. It's a job. You are the liquidity provider for the market. You provide dollar liquidity when it's needed and BTC liquidity when it's needed. The way you can tell if you are doing your job well is by selling at a profit. We make a lot of bets and most of them lose. The few that win pay off big. Cutting your losses is an essential part of the job.

It will likely cost you a lot of money before you get the hang of it. It's kind of like being a poker pro except you actually provide something to society besides entertainment. I'm still learning. Bitcoin's historical volatility shows that we really need good traders. Good traders help reduce volatility. They eat it. Guys like you just function to pay off the good ones.

You don't have to believe in Bitcoin to be a good trader. In fact, it's often a liability. We tend to project our desires onto the market. You need to understand order flows.

Maybe I should just leave your comments be?

However, you are so inflammatory in your presentation of matters. You proclaim to be learning, but preaching as if you are an expert. You are also in the habit of putting people down and turning matters into a competition... eg. you keep to suggest that you are going to take other people coins or they will get burned.. stupid and unnecessary confrontations.. and for what purpose, self entertainment? Might be the guy with the smallest dick trying to posture?..

Probably, there is NOTHING really to make you act more civil, unless it comes from within you. which seems a long shot.. more of a long shot than bitcoin reaching $1000 by next week.

On the other hand, I have observed that every once in a while you contribute some value to the thread, when you get off of your high horse and provide basic facts or comments without the most apparently added fluff and spin.

Quote from: roslinpl on April 11, 2014, 10:44:04 PM

Price looks like is not sure where to go

up or down ... I see it is more likely to go up in next 12h I predict +33$

You may be correct that there is some upward movement, but it also seems that there is going to be another test of downward.. maybe we will get down to $400 or so? We may even may get $380... but I am NOT sure if we will get much lower than that... Thereafter, probably we are going to move in the upward direction...

I do NOT see the current atmosphere to be sufficiently clarified in order to give us upward momentum.. but maybe by sunday or some time next week the upward momentum may begin to build up sufficiently to take us into the $500s and possibly beyond.. maybe lingering in the upper $500s to lower $600s for a while.. ..

I know this gets to be too speculative, if going too far into the future... given that the current FUD has NOT been clearly and unambiguously resolved, yet... and like another poster said, it is unlikely to be clearly and unambiguously resolve in the next week or so.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 10:46:31 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 11, 2014, 09:32:28 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 08:02:39 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on April 11, 2014, 07:13:48 PM

Quote from: Guinpen on April 11, 2014, 07:09:43 PM

420 being tested again on Stamp... when will it end?!

I don't think we are in a hurry back to 340$.

I really hope we are. A retest of $340 on higher volume and I'm back in 100% crypto. A slow painful grind back to $340 and then I have to wait until we continue to grind down to $267.

Yest, that is a question that I am considering too. However, I would think the opposite reaction would be most logical. If price moves down quickly to $340, then you wait for $267 or whatever. If price moves down slowly to $340, then you may consider that a true bottom is met, and you would get into all crypto at that point.

So, I appreciate your framing of the possible outcomes, yet I question your characterization about what you would do under either scenario... It is like you know better, but you are providing stupid ass and illogical information.. NOT hating on you, just a little irritated by your message b/c it seems to be giving weird-ass conclusions based on a hypothetical that could really happen. Since, on more than one occasion, you have asserted NOT to be purposefully deceiving anyone, maybe you can clarify what you meant?

I closed my margin short@ $350 last night and made some money, but not nearly as much as I would have made had I bought. I'm sitting in 100% crypto and you can't do anything with fiat on an exchange except withdraw it or buy BTC. I WANT to buy BTC @ $350 so does every other well-funded trader who missed the opportunity to sell the bounce. The ones who did sell the bounce made a bundle and want to do it again. This has been a vicious four month bear market and the people who still have fiat have it because we don't part with it easily. The unknown question is how many of us want to buy relative to how many will want to sell when all the candles are red and it looks like $340 is just a pit stop on the road to Hell.

I don't want the price to go to $266 even though I'd get a lot more coins because I know also that it would push the next ATH back probably until next year. I'll deal with it if it happens, cuz y'know I would have to, but it wouldn't be much fun. Even the most successful traders do not control the market because they do not control demand. All they do is supply liquidity. The differing ways to get there again will give evidence of how much demand there is.

The market could be in a lot worse shape than it is. I'm sure the whales who saw how fast liquidity can dry up last night are swimming a little less deep in the order book now.

I don't know how much demand there is for bitcoins, but I have an edge if I focus like a laser on certain signals. Good day traders don't do what is logical. They supply the liquidity to the people who are logical and to everybody else. If the market doesn't retest $340-$350, then I don't think I am in a position to provide much liquidity to the market. I'll prolly just cash out, pay some bills and wait out the next ATH to pull some coins from cold storage and do it again.

Stable prices are good if they are stable on high volume, but volume has dried up again, which means the only price discovery tool I have now is patience.
What happens on low volume means little. What happens on high volume says more.

If you closed most or all your shorts, then congratulations.... there are probably only so many things that a guy can do in terms of buying or gaining a little more during the various bounces.

I appreciate your detailed explanation, even though it seems to be a continued attempt to get people to sell or liquidate their btc.... I'm NOT selling, but let others make their own choice. I also don't buy your supposed public service to bitcoin and reduction of volatility, but that is fine if you want to make those kinds of proclamations.

Finally, I don't buy that you are doing what you are saying, but NO problem that is your choice.

We see this thread for different purposes, and I personally do NOT see it as a mechanism to persuade others what to do.. and you seem to (even though you are ambiguous about your motives in that direction). Anyhow, maybe it is all a matter of degree, and I think that I am going to attempt to refrain from responding to your posts, even though they tend to incite me into responding... I am going to attempt to exercise some self-restraint.. if it is at all possible. Lips sealed

Quote from: roslinpl on April 11, 2014, 11:05:19 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 11, 2014, 10:56:03 PM

Quote from: roslinpl on April 11, 2014, 10:44:04 PM

Price looks like is not sure where to go

up or down ... I see it is more likely to go up in next 12h I predict +33$

The sentiment on this thread is interesting. The people who bought into the rally today seem upset that the price didn't go up more when if they were capable of sustaining a rally they would be happy the price is going down so they could accumulate more coins. I don't yet see any signs of new capital infusion. Such low volume on a Friday night seems to indicate we're going to have a week end dip.

I have my theory about low volume

but for now maybe I will keep it to myself.
I am so sure that in next 10h we will see ~+30$ that I can almost bet on it Tongue

I know volume is low, but I believe tomorrow it will change because of - this is a weekend before 15th - many members were affected by this date and tomorrow I am pretty sure attention will be huge

But - always failure is an option as I might be wrong.
I am looking forward for exciting weekend in Bitcoin world Wink

As we haven't seen from a long time.

Yeah... seems like possible bitcoin drama in the near future.

Quote from: Hen0xyd on April 11, 2014, 11:58:04 PM

Quote from: hlynur on April 11, 2014, 11:49:10 PM

Quote from: coins101 on April 11, 2014, 11:28:10 PM

Problems solved.

Chinese exchanges are moving out of China.

http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-bitcoin-exchanges-prepare-to-move-operations-overseas/

Other than a Moses type exodus of biblical proportions with all their customers moving out of China too, not sure how this solves the problem of using a regulated fiat currency with these exchanges.

what i never get is if the regulation will be differently applied to the special economic zones in china (esp Hongkong & Shanghai as financial centre)?

Exchanges are moving out of China but Chinese people and their money is in China... But I guess most of the people/money invested in bitcoin on last rally were rich and as such able to get money out of the country or to travel.
Without masses (or wallstreets/US?) next rally to 1000+ is not this close (but fundamentals are really nice lately).

Does NOT make much if any sense.. Also, overseas is quite big... so, to where are they moving?

Currently, I think we are getting a pump.. here..

and the dump will come later.. maybe tomorrow? or at least less than 24 hours?

Quote from: TERA on April 12, 2014, 12:54:33 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 12, 2014, 12:44:56 AM

Currently, I think we are getting a pump.. here..

and the dump will come later.. maybe tomorrow? or at least less than 24 hours?

Order books and charts are showing a powerful momentum with thin retraces, early indicator reversals, and lots of bids filling in.

I think there should be a consolidation of a couple days before break to 520 (and then either dump or trend reversal). At least that's how it worked last month with mtgox. Only problem I see is there is significantly less volume on stamp this time. Stamp did 64K of volume yesterday and with the mtgox bounce, it did 120K of volume. The candles now, however, actually look even more bullish than then, but the volume does not. I don't know what to make of it.

I would make sense in this situation if the trend is being driven by Chinese re-entrants and so the volume there is more significant. However, in that case we have to trust that this the end of the China situation and that the Chinese volume wont get killed of by continued bank shutdowns. So far, ignoring the volume on stamp has always been a mistake.

I hear what you are saying.. ... but it seems that we are going to get another test of the down first... before going up - especially if there is overall low volume.. b/c in the end, the current news has NOT settled the China matter very clearly. so that leaves for uncertainties in the air which will allow for pushing of this matter downward and the testing of the support around $400 or possibly lower... I cannot really see this going up before engaging in that downward test over the weekend... that is why I was suggesting that there is a pump that precedes the downward test.

Quote from: seleme on April 12, 2014, 01:06:11 AM

Quote from: porcupine87 on April 12, 2014, 01:04:18 AM

Quote from: seleme on April 12, 2014, 01:03:09 AM

I missed this one definitely, made some 2k$, that's nothing what I could made. Cry

Well, I light a candle for you Sad

I had lot of fiat waiting, could have easily made 20k in last 24 hours if I wasn't a pussy.

But again, that's how it is now, I decided to protect these gains and I won't risk it easily until I am certain even if I had to buy at 600$. It's lot of money that gives me some security and free time to approach the future period. Plus if it explodes I'll pick my gains in my alts investments so it's not time to be too greedy.

NO asset class is exactly like bitcoin - except for other crytos... but bitcoin is the pointman regarding taking the various hits - potential banking concerns and potential government concerns....

I am sure parallels can still be drawn, but there still exist overall differences based on the fact that bitcoin is just a little different animal from the rest.

Maybe one could say like some kind of diversified drug cartel or something that is being invested into, but in those kinds of situations, they are missing the decentralized aspect, which is bitcoin. And if we talk about tor being peer to peer and unable to take down, well there is NOT money investments, in the same way as bitcoin.. which distinguishes bitcoin from tor... even though tor principles are used in bitcoin.

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on April 12, 2014, 02:08:28 AM

Quote from: seleme on April 12, 2014, 01:03:09 AM

I wouldn't care if it was final bottom or not if I traded this with my full power Grin

I missed this one definitely, made some 2k$, that's nothing what I could made. Cry

And it might be the bottom, I usually never miss the lows though I sell too early on bounce, yesterday I was too scared to go full in first time Roll Eyes

Lucky you

I never had luck with trading and speculating. As I bought @685 my only goal was to make a profit of 1000 bucks and then sell and buy low. That means the price only needed to go $15 up for a 1000k profit. But I bought @highest spot and now I made not 1000 profit but 25.000 loss (if I would sell) Cheesy

We are in a similar situation.. though I started buying at $1200 and saved some of my fiat to I have been buying little by little for nearly five months.. so currently, my average price per BTC is around $625, including fees. I am NOT planning to sell any significant quantity until in the black.. so I continue to buy small amounts to keep bringing my average price per BTC down... If I sold at the highest price that I could have gotten today, I would be around $10k down. I am pretty confident that prices will get above my average BTC price within the next few months... but I am prepared for a couple of years, if that is in the cards.

Quote from: sidhujag on April 12, 2014, 09:37:21 AM

Quote from: mah87 on April 12, 2014, 09:23:51 AM

Quote from: sidhujag on April 12, 2014, 09:10:16 AM

ready for the greatest bull ride of your life? Coming sooon..

LOL sure;...!

K np see u at 7000

I like that. What is the basis for $7,000, and when is it coming? this year? or 2015? or later? I think that $7,000 is fairly reasonable for 2016 or thereafter. It is possible for this year and/or next year, but much less likely, especially for this year.. But never say never.. lot's of action going on in BTC behind the scenes and some wall street types seems to be considering aspects of BTC...

Quote from: podyx on April 12, 2014, 10:10:24 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 12, 2014, 10:01:22 AM

Quote from: sidhujag on April 12, 2014, 09:37:21 AM

Quote from: mah87 on April 12, 2014, 09:23:51 AM

Quote from: sidhujag on April 12, 2014, 09:10:16 AM

ready for the greatest bull ride of your life? Coming sooon..

LOL sure;...!

K np see u at 7000

I like that. What is the basis for $7,000, and when is it coming? this year? or 2015? or later? I think that $7,000 is fairly reasonable for 2016 or thereafter. It is possible for this year and/or next year, but much less likely, especially for this year.. But never say never.. lot's of action going on in BTC behind the scenes and some wall street types seems to be considering aspects of BTC...

2016 is delusional
Probably this year, perhaps 2015 though if things start to slow down

You mean that if I am suggesting that we may NOT see $7,000 until 2016, then I am being too much of a bear, and I need bull re-education? Hehehe..... Cheesy

Quote from: BitAddict on April 12, 2014, 07:20:07 PM

Quote from: EuroTrash on April 12, 2014, 06:17:09 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on April 12, 2014, 05:58:29 PM

Back down to super low volume. Are we thinking consolidation and up or are we just waiting for the next bit of news.

450 used to be the norm. Before that it was 620, and before that it was 800.
If 425 becomes the new normal flat line on low volume, which is lower than the previous one, it just means that at last dip, once more and again, more fiat got out than new fiat came in.

Apathy sucks. Let's hope that volume picks up on Monday.

Also every day there are 3,600 new freshly mined bitcoins, and part of them are sold to pay electricity bills, try to recover money invested on the miner, investing on more mining power or present/future panickers.

That means it is needed up to $1.5 million daily deposits to maintain the price stable. (Actually less because some will hold no matter what, so you can guess something like 25%-50% of $1.5)

I would speculate that miners are selling back less than 10% at these prices... and they are probably attempting to be somewhat strategic about when they make the sales, if their hand is forced.

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 08:12:27 PM

Quote from: gizmoh on April 12, 2014, 07:52:46 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on April 12, 2014, 07:45:09 PM

Most obvious prediction is down to 2500 on huobi

Bears are washed out, the current selling is mainly profit taking.
We aren't going below 400 unless fresh Fud news from china comes in.

The bulls seem more washed out to me, I don't see many people buying at the moment.

some people are worried of being a 450 bag holder.

I am more worried about the bag being on the train, while I am standing at the railway station platform trying to figure out how to get to the next train station so I can get on the train.

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 08:33:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 12, 2014, 08:18:23 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 08:12:27 PM

Quote from: gizmoh on April 12, 2014, 07:52:46 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on April 12, 2014, 07:45:09 PM

Most obvious prediction is down to 2500 on huobi

Bears are washed out, the current selling is mainly profit taking.
We aren't going below 400 unless fresh Fud news from china comes in.

The bulls seem more washed out to me, I don't see many people buying at the moment.

some people are worried of being a 450 bag holder.

I am more worried about the bag being on the train, while I am standing at the railway station platform trying to figure out how to get to the next train station so I can get on the train.

And there are plenty of people like you that feel the same.

I think when we finally hit the bottom we will level out for a while. I don't see a big bounce, followed by choo choo. So for me at least there is a lot less risk in dollars or yuan.

All the gox, China, Australia news, does not go away overnight, and it's new investors that are needed. More bad news could be just around the corner. Many personal investors with serious cash are older, and don't understand bitcoin, and are naturally more conservative. Corporations, wouldn't touch bitcoin with a shitty stick right now, as it looks risky on price and it looks even riskier on regulation. Lets face it, there is no good news for new investment.

I dont agree with your assessment of new investment being scared off of bitcoin. They may be hesitant and unsure about whether they understand it. Even avid and intelligent investors frequently claim NOT to understand the various intricacies of bitcoin, but they understand it enough to realize its innovative and added value to prior existing systems... and accordingly is worthy of investment. As far as regulation, the regulation has been fairly neutral and somewhat positive in several arenas... legislators are grappling to understand bitcoin as well, and we are getting conflicting implementations, but in the end, regulation hostility is NOT as present as you are attempting to make it out to be.

In essence it seems that at the moment bitcoin's natural floating value should be between about $750 and $850... but prices are being pushed down by FUD and various negative price pressures. Those kinds of pressures can go on for a while, but bitcoin's natural price continues to go up with the building of the infrastructure.. and by the end of the year, it's maybe in the $1500 to $2000 arena.. though its actual price may be higher or lower depending on various pressures... whether we are getting downward manipulation or upward speculation...

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 08:54:52 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 12, 2014, 08:24:29 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 08:12:27 PM

some people are worried of being a 450 bag holder.

Okay, let's give it 100 days!

(Anyone who bought at 450 is not worried of anything. Some who entered at 1000 and doubled down at 600-800 may be, but they have already shed a lot of coins so after 100 days we should be at about 4000)

Haha, bulls feel the need to refute such accusations. When they don't refute, just ridicule, it's time to sell Wink

But be honest, you have so many coins i'm guessing you could probably crash the market if you wanted. You have a vested interest in not doing this, but you must be very concerned.

Bitcoin is great invention, it has great support but it's no where near main stream yet. I have been a miner since Nov 2011, and I work in a very geek orientated environment, there are over 100 working in my team. They are all tech geeks and out of these people only maybe 3 or 4 have mined bitcoin. It's very very niche outside of our little world.

I have made some money from BTC but I could never recommend it to a friend or relative, because I couldn't live with myself if they lost a lot of cash as a result of my advice.

Also in the April 2014 crash bitcoin lost 75% without any fundamental reason for the crash. We're not at 75% yet and we have been plastered with negative reports on mainstream media. The only bitcoin stories I have seen recently on mainstream TV in the UK have been about gox and the crash. That sticks in peoples minds.

450 remains in my mind to high imho.

I dont believe you about having 100 miners on your team - because if you did and if you were in such circumstances, you would not be talking such shit. and spreading such FUD b/c it would neither be in your interest and it also would likely NOT even be within the thinking of someone who would put together such a team.. unless you happen to be working for someone else and undermining their business and not acting in their interest. In other words, to me, you seem to be full of it.... and that's being charitable.

Quote from: rpietila on April 12, 2014, 09:40:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 12, 2014, 09:37:17 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 08:54:52 PM

I have been a miner since Nov 2011, and I work in a very geek orientated environment, there are over 100 working in my team. They are all tech geeks and out of these people only maybe 3 or 4 have mined bitcoin.

I dont believe you about having 100 miners on your team

Luckily he did not claim so

Maybe I have to improve my reading skills...

...

... I am still NOT planning to change my post b/c part of my point(s) remains that he is full of it, for a variety of other reasons... including the fact that even he is claiming to be a bitter miner since 2011... may be true, but seems to be like he got screwed somehow or made some serious mistakes and is NOT in touch with whatever caused him to get involved in the mining of BTC. Maybe he overextended himself or saw that traders were doing better than miners b/c if a miner had saved some of his coins since 2011, he could have a pretty decent little stash... but if he over invested in mining equipment, then maybe he does NOT have any coins... . He may want to explain the cause(s) for his bitterness that has caused him to not only be bearish but to make a variety of outlandish claims regarding the direction of bitcoin... to describe bitcoin in mostly negative terms..

Quote from: keewee on April 12, 2014, 09:45:57 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 12, 2014, 09:37:17 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 08:54:52 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 12, 2014, 08:24:29 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 08:12:27 PM

some people are worried of being a 450 bag holder.

Okay, let's give it 100 days!

(Anyone who bought at 450 is not worried of anything. Some who entered at 1000 and doubled down at 600-800 may be, but they have already shed a lot of coins so after 100 days we should be at about 4000)

Haha, bulls feel the need to refute such accusations. When they don't refute, just ridicule, it's time to sell Wink

But be honest, you have so many coins i'm guessing you could probably crash the market if you wanted. You have a vested interest in not doing this, but you must be very concerned.

Bitcoin is great invention, it has great support but it's no where near main stream yet. I have been a miner since Nov 2011, and I work in a very geek orientated environment, there are over 100 working in my team. They are all tech geeks and out of these people only maybe 3 or 4 have mined bitcoin. It's very very niche outside of our little world.

I have made some money from BTC but I could never recommend it to a friend or relative, because I couldn't live with myself if they lost a lot of cash as a result of my advice.

Also in the April 2014 crash bitcoin lost 75% without any fundamental reason for the crash. We're not at 75% yet and we have been plastered with negative reports on mainstream media. The only bitcoin stories I have seen recently on mainstream TV in the UK have been about gox and the crash. That sticks in peoples minds.

450 remains in my mind to high imho.

I dont believe you about having 100 miners on your team - because if you did and if you were in such circumstances, you would not be talking such shit. and spreading such FUD b/c it would neither be in your interest and it also would likely NOT even be within the thinking of someone who would put together such a team.. unless you happen to be working for someone else and undermining their business and not acting in their interest. In other words, to me, you seem to be full of it.... and that's being charitable.

He didn't say he had 100 miners on his team. He said there are over 100 people at his work. Of these 100 geeks only 3 or 4 other than himself have mined bitcoin, a percentage that seems pretty reasonable

Thanks I stand corrected, and you are correct that 3-4 out of 100 may be in the ballpark of the tech industry. I have quite a few tech oriented friends, who I thought naturally would know about bitcoin or be invested in such.. a few claim to know about it.. and so far, each have claimed NOT to be invested in bitcoin when I asked.

Quote from: podyx on April 12, 2014, 09:54:08 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on April 12, 2014, 09:48:16 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 08:54:52 PM

Also in the April 2014 crash bitcoin lost 75% without any fundamental reason for the crash. We're not at 75% yet and we have been plastered with negative reports on mainstream media. The only bitcoin stories I have seen recently on mainstream TV in the UK have been about gox and the crash. That sticks in peoples minds.

2013?

The fundamental reason was that it was simply too high.

Well, mt.gox helped crash it by lagging out

Maybe it would go higher if it wasn't for that, maybe not... Maybe go fuck yourself Grin

he he he.. i sense some built up tension in the air.. two quasi-bulls going at it about trivial matters.. we must be nearing a bottom.. Huh

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 10:24:00 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 12, 2014, 09:48:42 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 12, 2014, 09:40:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 12, 2014, 09:37:17 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 08:54:52 PM

I have been a miner since Nov 2011, and I work in a very geek orientated environment, there are over 100 working in my team. They are all tech geeks and out of these people only maybe 3 or 4 have mined bitcoin.

I dont believe you about having 100 miners on your team

Luckily he did not claim so

Maybe I have to improve my reading skills...

...

... I am still NOT planning to change my post b/c part of my point(s) remains that he is full of it, for a variety of other reasons... including the fact that even he is claiming to be a bitter miner since 2011... may be true, but seems to be like he got screwed somehow or made some serious mistakes and is NOT in touch with whatever caused him to get involved in the mining of BTC. Maybe he overextended himself or saw that traders were doing better than miners b/c if a miner had saved some of his coins since 2011, he could have a pretty decent little stash... but if he over invested in mining equipment, then maybe he does NOT have any coins... . He may want to explain the cause(s) for his bitterness that has caused him to not only be bearish but to make a variety of outlandish claims regarding the direction of bitcoin... to describe bitcoin in mostly negative terms..

"he overextended himself" as a miner that's not really possible, The only time electricity was more expensive than income was July / August 2013, when LTC was $2. We are approaching that level again BTW for scrypt coins and soon first gen asics will reach that level. Avalon ascis (80GH) are there now, power hungry 90nm design (the electric costs more than the BTC received.)

Again you need to read. what I wrote, you have selective vision. I wrote.. "Bitcoin is great invention, it has great support ".

I said I don't see where the next big investment will come from straight away. I said it will take time. That's why I and many others remain bearish (for now).

I wrote a large post about my bitcoin history, but deleted it, because actually I don't care if you believe it or not. I could provide proof, but it won't change anything, your response will still be the same. (i'm a bitter bear, etc. etc. ) but as I was the person that made the DPZ coin I don't feel like I have to justify my involvement in the crypto community.

Edit: spelling

NO you do NOT have to prove yourself... I agree.

I have seen quite a few posts from you that have seemed to be angled towards spinning some jaded perspectives that are exaggerating facts in one direction or another... so for the time being, I will hold any further negative conclusions in reserve.. .. and see how it plays out...

I am NOT attempting to read matters selectively, but i likely have NOT read all of your posts.. but that does NOT make my reading selective or purposefully selective in an conscious attempt to look at the world from a tinted glasses perspective.

In essence, I am NOT bothered by perspectives that are negative towards bitcoin, but i am usually bothered by inaccurate depictions when it seems to me that the poster knows better... if you do NOT know better, then you get more leeway, in my thinking.... ..

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 11:20:07 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 12, 2014, 11:08:56 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 10:24:00 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 12, 2014, 09:48:42 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 12, 2014, 09:40:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 12, 2014, 09:37:17 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 12, 2014, 08:54:52 PM

I have been a miner since Nov 2011, and I work in a very geek orientated environment, there are over 100 working in my team. They are all tech geeks and out of these people only maybe 3 or 4 have mined bitcoin.

I dont believe you about having 100 miners on your team

Luckily he did not claim so

Maybe I have to improve my reading skills...

...

... I am still NOT planning to change my post b/c part of my point(s) remains that he is full of it, for a variety of other reasons... including the fact that even he is claiming to be a bitter miner since 2011... may be true, but seems to be like he got screwed somehow or made some serious mistakes and is NOT in touch with whatever caused him to get involved in the mining of BTC. Maybe he overextended himself or saw that traders were doing better than miners b/c if a miner had saved some of his coins since 2011, he could have a pretty decent little stash... but if he over invested in mining equipment, then maybe he does NOT have any coins... . He may want to explain the cause(s) for his bitterness that has caused him to not only be bearish but to make a variety of outlandish claims regarding the direction of bitcoin... to describe bitcoin in mostly negative terms..

"he overextended himself" as a miner that's not really possible, The only time electricity was more expensive than income was July / August 2013, when LTC was $2. We are approaching that level again BTW for scrypt coins and soon first gen asics will reach that level. Avalon ascis (80GH) are there now, power hungry 90nm design (the electric costs more than the BTC received.)

Again you need to read. what I wrote, you have selective vision. I wrote.. "Bitcoin is great invention, it has great support ".

I said I don't see where the next big investment will come from straight away. I said it will take time. That's why I and many others remain bearish (for now).

I wrote a large post about my bitcoin history, but deleted it, because actually I don't care if you believe it or not. I could provide proof, but it won't change anything, your response will still be the same. (i'm a bitter bear, etc. etc. ) but as I was the person that made the DPZ coin I don't feel like I have to justify my involvement in the crypto community.

Edit: spelling

NO you do NOT have to prove yourself... I agree.

I have seen quite a few posts from you that have seemed to be angled towards spinning some jaded perspectives that are exaggerating facts in one direction or another... so for the time being, I will hold any further negative conclusions in reserve.. .. and see how it plays out...

I am NOT attempting to read matters selectively, but i likely have NOT read all of your posts.. but that does NOT make my reading selective or purposefully selective in an conscious attempt to look at the world from a tinted glasses perspective.

In essence, I am NOT bothered by perspectives that are negative towards bitcoin, but i am usually bothered by inaccurate depictions when it seems to me that the poster knows better... if you do NOT know better, then you get more leeway, in my thinking.... ..

I don't know better, neither do you, I can't say for certain if it's going up or down. I'm simply saying I will hold fiat for now.

You should KNOW that we are NOT talking about whether posters are merely making good faith and genuine predictions, and if each of us were merely making good faith and genuine predictions, then that is fine.

But if either of us is purposefully providing misleading information as if it were true, then that is another story. I have NOT been asserting that my predictions are any better than yours; however, I have been questioning whether you have been purposefully providing misleading information.. and so I pulled back to a small degree from my earlier assertions b/c I had overstated the level to which I thought you were providing contradictory information about your background... however, that does NOT remove my concerns, it only shows that I had put too much weight on a piece of information about your background that I misunderstood.

So, in that regard, I agreed to move forward rather than dwelling on that aspect which is a bit of a side-tangent.. and information out of my ability to really know. You are in the possession of information about your background, NOT me.

Quote from: pjviitas on April 12, 2014, 11:48:03 PM

Quote from: SheHadMANHands on April 12, 2014, 11:46:52 PM

Been a while since we've seen a double bottom.

Ex:

Hmmmm....very very interesting

That is a single bottom, I think. Huh

Quote from: wachtwoord on April 13, 2014, 12:36:13 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 13, 2014, 12:30:40 AM

Quote from: SheHadMANHands on April 13, 2014, 12:09:20 AM

In chart terms, sir, I see a double bottom.

Of course, this is in a TA context.

I think it is a bullish sign.

To be honest I don't see a double bottom on the charts either Cheesy

(unless you are talking about the 1 min charts)

to be a double bottom, I would think we need a sustained bounce off 340 again. Then you will see a strong uptrend.

I see a triple bottom on the daily 18 dec/ 25 feb / 11 apr

I need a bathing suit picture, otherwise, i do not believe it.

Quote from: TERA on April 13, 2014, 05:02:20 AM

A candle is coming.

Red

or

Green?

Quote from: chessnut on April 13, 2014, 05:24:09 AM

It's a texas show down!

I was expecting some trade/showdown competition between the bears and the bulls over this weekend.. like a real battle to take advantage of whatever remains of the fud in a timely manner.....

Surely, that battle could still occur.. but it is also possible that we may be left in a sort of limbo-land state until on or after 4/15 before we get some kind of price action.

Also wasnt there some defiant statements from Huobi about NOT complying with china regulations or that trades are going to take place underground if china keeps pushing for banning or too many restrictions on bitcoin, and that seems to just drag things out more than resolving matters. The chinese are under some stress right now with their currency too... .. even though I get the sense that bitcoin is small potatos compared with their currency issues.

I've got enough fiat in my account now to make some additional BTC purchases... but I am NOT sure how long I can last if BTC prices were to keep this downward trickling momentum for another month or two.. really the last two months have been the worst of the unrelenting downward price trickle. Probably, I would have to stop buying BTC at some point.. even though coins would be getting "cheaper" and "cheaper."

A problem with the last two months has been that I have kept thinking that we are at the bottom price, and then we get further drops.. mostly I was thinking that since about $610. I certainly think that coins are cheap now - but I would be kicking myself if I continue to buy in this particular price range, and then we get even more cheaper coins at some point in the next week or possibly two weeks... But then I will also kick myself I do NOT exhaust my current fiat at this price, especially if we are NOT going to be returning to this price after the ChooChoo MO FO comes about.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 13, 2014, 07:40:38 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 05:55:51 AM

Also wasnt there some defiant statements from Huobi about NOT complying with china regulations or that trades are going to take place underground if china keeps pushing for banning or too many restrictions on bitcoin, and that seems to just drag things out more than resolving matters.

As far as I can tell with Google Translate, the note now on their site (dated 2014-04-11 16:45:16 local time) says that

(1) they believe that the aim of the December decree was to prevent abuses like money laundering, and they are totally willing to cooperate with the government on that, they are already doing a lot in that area with customer identification, reporting large movements etc; and that if they are forced to shut down, those abuses will move overseas where they will be harder to police;

(2) they have received closure notices from two banks (ICBC and Merchants Bank), they understand that each bank is interpreting the PBoC order differently, with different dates, so perhaps some of the banks may continue to work with them.

I think these views are consistent with the theory that the new "PBoC circular" did not originate with PBoC (which does not seem worried about those "virtual stamps" anymore). Bitcoin is no longer a threat to the monetary policy, which is the PBoC's main concern. But is still a potential tool for money laundering, bribing, subversion, etc..

IIRC, the December decree was said to be the joint decision of five ministeries/agencies, of which PBoC was just one. I think that the March decision, to tighten the December decree by closing the bank accounts, came from the law enforcement and national security agencies, and was issued through the PBoC only because the banks are subordinated to the PBoC.

Also, point (2) above may explain why the price bounced back to the level of Apr/09. The previous note of Apr/10, about the ICBC closure, implied that all bank accounts would be closed, with no negotiation possible, thus confirming the Caixin article. This note restores the uncertainty of last Friday by suggesting that some bank accounts may remain open. The timing of the last drop (07:00 am local time) and the bounceback (11:00 am local time) seems consistent with the timing of the note plus insider trading.

Your interpretation seems to make quite a bit of sense to outline what seems to be the current situation, which really does seem to come back to the notion that at least on Huobi, they are going to continue to attempt to operate, and they seem to have a variety of options to continue to operate - however, at any moment their funding avenues could dry up. Then we get to the next FUD and speculated price drop, again (like ground hog's day) that China is banning bitcoin.

These kinds of uncertainties could drag out for several months... and in the meantime the bitcoin network will continue to expand.. and maybe by the time bitcoin is really and truly banned in china, it will be too late - or some other change in bitcoin land may evolve in order that such news is NOT so detrimental to BTC prices?

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 13, 2014, 04:45:42 PM

How awesome it would be if this was a successful retest of $340.

I thought that you said that you were back to being all in BTC? Did you get into Fiat again at some time?

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:49:11 PM

Quote from: y3804 on April 13, 2014, 04:46:07 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:43:29 PM

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

Quote from: aminorex on April 13, 2014, 04:50:41 PM

Quote from: pjviitas on April 13, 2014, 04:14:03 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 04:12:48 PM

Quote

Sellers spin it up and Buyers spin it down...an idiot is someone who doesn't spin it at all.

You have a perverted sense of the world. Maybe you have only engaged in internet relationships?

Interesting...so what exactly are you trying to sell me here?

He's spinning down. He must be trying to buy you something.

That's another way of putting it, but Aminorex, you may be too abstract for pjviitas - since s/he seems to have a more straight forward view of the way the world operates.

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 13, 2014, 04:51:23 PM

pretty sure it is Sunday or it just finished an hr ago in China but you know what's great on sunday ... BACON

Bacon is great on any day. Making me hungry just thinking about it.

Quote from: Cassius on April 13, 2014, 05:12:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 05:02:35 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:49:11 PM

Quote from: y3804 on April 13, 2014, 04:46:07 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:43:29 PM

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Based on the totality of the circumstances... included but not limited to payment system, storage of value, public ledger and decentralized innovative protocol that is expanding its reach globally.. and a market cap of only about 5 billion - even though much lesser important innovations have much larger market caps...

Quote from: pjviitas on April 13, 2014, 05:15:41 PM

Quote from: Cassius on April 13, 2014, 05:12:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 05:02:35 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:49:11 PM

Quote from: y3804 on April 13, 2014, 04:46:07 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:43:29 PM

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

I already addressed this value basis question in another post.

But if you think the current value is $9.99-ish, then you seem to really be living in a fantasy land world, and possibly, you do NOT understand various bitcoin fundamentals.

I do NOT claim to be nearly an expert on everything about bitcoin, but there is a lot of upward potential that may or may not be realized.. depending upon how world events play out.

I am betting on BTC prices going up, though, and I believe the odds are pretty good... that we are going to be seeing upward price momentum rather than downward momentum - even though it is possible that we will continue to see downward price momentum for a couple of more months...

Quote from: jonoiv on April 13, 2014, 05:19:55 PM

Quote from: pjviitas on April 13, 2014, 05:15:41 PM

Quote from: Cassius on April 13, 2014, 05:12:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 05:02:35 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:49:11 PM

Quote from: y3804 on April 13, 2014, 04:46:07 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:43:29 PM

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

Based on the fact he's a permanent uber-bull troll!

Yeah.. get your unsubstantiated digs in - and certainly, you are out of context, here, which seems to be your M.O. to spout out a bunch of shit, out of context.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 13, 2014, 05:19:59 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 04:53:55 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 13, 2014, 04:45:42 PM

How awesome it would be if this was a successful retest of $340.

I thought that you said that you were back to being all in BTC? Did you get into Fiat again at some time?

I specifically said I was NOT all in, just cautiously optimistic. There was a four hour cross on the MACD that had the potential of causing a pop, and I wanted to be in a position to SELL that spike. The Next rally is extremely unlikely to start immediately after the lowest point is hit. There will be months of consolidation.

Surely, it is possible that I missed some of your posts, so thanks for the clarification.

Quote from: pjviitas on April 13, 2014, 05:49:12 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 05:37:39 PM

Quote from: pjviitas on April 13, 2014, 05:15:41 PM

Quote from: Cassius on April 13, 2014, 05:12:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 05:02:35 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:49:11 PM

Quote from: y3804 on April 13, 2014, 04:46:07 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:43:29 PM

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

I already addressed this value basis question in another post.

But if you think the current value is $9.99-ish, then you seem to really be living in a fantasy land world, and possibly, you do NOT understand various bitcoin fundamentals.

I do NOT claim to be nearly an expert on everything about bitcoin, but there is a lot of upward potential that may or may not be realized.. depending upon how world events play out.

I am betting on BTC prices going up, though, and I believe the odds are pretty good... that we are going to be seeing upward price momentum rather than downward momentum - even though it is possible that we will continue to see downward price momentum for a couple of more months...

Does your valuation take into account the fact that Bitcoin mining as we know it will collapse very soon?

NO it does NOT.

I did NOT know that interesting "fact."

Can you explain when and how and why? And, what are your sources for your information - b/c I have NOT seen any news about this happening.

Quote from: jonoiv on April 13, 2014, 05:51:14 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 05:40:06 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 13, 2014, 05:19:55 PM

Quote from: pjviitas on April 13, 2014, 05:15:41 PM

Quote from: Cassius on April 13, 2014, 05:12:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 05:02:35 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:49:11 PM

Quote from: y3804 on April 13, 2014, 04:46:07 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:43:29 PM

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

Based on the fact he's a permanent uber-bull troll!

Yeah.. get your unsubstantiated digs in - and certainly, you are out of context, here, which seems to be your M.O. to spout out a bunch of shit, out of context.

Don't care to carry on a conversation with a delusional extremist. I can't think of an opposing bear that would balance your strange and frankly outlandish claims. The nearest reverse mirror image might be Igorr. But igorr backs his claims up with some TA that does justify his point of view. You just talk rubbish, over, and over again, a constant stream of verbal diarrhea. The reason? I can only hazard a guess.

So maybe you will put me on ignore, then?

You seem to be resorting to name calling, again, without any real basis. I sense that it is much easier for you to stick with easy terms and conclusions rather than responding to logic or reason or good faith attempts at communicating substance.

I cannot summarize what i do in this thread as succinctly as your conclusory assertions, but sometimes I am responding to other posts, such as yours, sometimes I am talking about my own personal decision-making process when trying to decide whether to buy or sell BTC and sometimes I am trying to predict the direction of BTC prices.

Generally, I am NOT trying to persuade others whether they should buy or sell or hodl, even though sometimes those words are in my vocabulary and i do use them from time to time to asssert a sort of prediction of the best strategy at the moment.

I have no problem with bearish predictions, except to the extent that there may be some disinformation contained within some of the bearish posts (sometimes the disinformation seems purposeful and other times such disinformation may NOT have been purposefully propagated), especially in these last several months the bearish predictions seem to have been correct b/c there has been a downward price trend, as we all know.

Really few of us can really predict the direction of BTC prices, yet some of us just do our best to attempt to decide what to do personally to account for the risk within our own investment priorities. This thread can be helpful to get current and historical information - if one can get passed some of the FUD information - which generally seems a lot more prevalent on the long-term bear-side of the camp. Short-term bear may be a different story about making a prediction that may be based on actual facts to the best that they can be known.

Regarding perma-bull name. I am generally bullish in the long term, but NOT perma-anything. If there are facts that get me to change my perspectives about bitcoin, then I will reconsider my investment and my investment strategies.

Quote from: pjviitas on April 13, 2014, 06:34:17 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 06:15:32 PM

Quote from: pjviitas on April 13, 2014, 05:49:12 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 05:37:39 PM

Quote from: pjviitas on April 13, 2014, 05:15:41 PM

Quote from: Cassius on April 13, 2014, 05:12:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 05:02:35 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:49:11 PM

Quote from: y3804 on April 13, 2014, 04:46:07 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:43:29 PM

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

I already addressed this value basis question in another post.

But if you think the current value is $9.99-ish, then you seem to really be living in a fantasy land world, and possibly, you do NOT understand various bitcoin fundamentals.

I do NOT claim to be nearly an expert on everything about bitcoin, but there is a lot of upward potential that may or may not be realized.. depending upon how world events play out.

I am betting on BTC prices going up, though, and I believe the odds are pretty good... that we are going to be seeing upward price momentum rather than downward momentum - even though it is possible that we will continue to see downward price momentum for a couple of more months...

Does your valuation take into account the fact that Bitcoin mining as we know it will collapse very soon?

NO it does NOT.

I did NOT know that interesting "fact."

Can you explain when and how and why? And, what are your sources for your information - b/c I have NOT seen any news about this happening.

A TH/s miner pretty well uses up an entire 15A circuit breaker in your home.

How many spare 15A breakers do you think there are in a home with a 100A service?

Yes, it is already known that mining is becoming more power intense and seems to be moving towards the bigger operations and likely towards the more wealthy performing the mining. That is a known progression that some people (including miners) do NOT like, but that "fact" does NOT signify that mining will collapse any time soon - and if this is foreseen to be a longer-term problem, then likely actions are going to take place to address the matter so that this issue does NOT cause a collapse of bitcoin. So, in essence, your post is full of disinformation by misstating facts and then exaggerating the significance of any facts that are contained therein.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 13, 2014, 06:39:52 PM

Whoever is operating the Death Bot is paying a lot of money to buy high and sell low. Why? One possible reason is to test market price and order resiliency. This person likely has a massive amount of cash and coins to control and the Death Bot is merely an operating expense.

This is very different than Willy. It's shown up on multiple exchanges, so it's probably not an exchange operator. That's a good sign, but it means the market is getting more sophisticated. Smart people are taking money from dumb people and I'm getting the sinking feeling that I'm one of the dumb people.

I don't have enough information to trade, so I'm not going to.

Personally, I do NOT think that this is a matter of being smart or dumb. When someone is using their capital to manipulate, you cannot predict that when they do it in unpredictable ways. Surely it is easier to predict if there a bunch of them and they may be having more trouble to coordinate.

You are NOT the first one to point out that sometimes these bots or whales are purposefully running at a loss, but they can only sustain it for so long - but generally, they can sustain it much longer than the tolerance of a bunch of us regular people put together.

Quote from: zakalwe on April 13, 2014, 07:02:03 PM

Ding ding ding last days low priiiiiiiiiice......last offer to buy cheaaaaaaaap!

It's likely to get pushed down at least one more time today..

maybe we will see $360?

Quote from: jonoiv on April 13, 2014, 07:23:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 06:35:30 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 13, 2014, 05:51:14 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 05:40:06 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 13, 2014, 05:19:55 PM

Quote from: pjviitas on April 13, 2014, 05:15:41 PM

Quote from: Cassius on April 13, 2014, 05:12:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 05:02:35 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:49:11 PM

Quote from: y3804 on April 13, 2014, 04:46:07 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 13, 2014, 04:43:29 PM

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

Based on the fact he's a permanent uber-bull troll!

Yeah.. get your unsubstantiated digs in - and certainly, you are out of context, here, which seems to be your M.O. to spout out a bunch of shit, out of context.

Don't care to carry on a conversation with a delusional extremist. I can't think of an opposing bear that would balance your strange and frankly outlandish claims. The nearest reverse mirror image might be Igorr. But igorr backs his claims up with some TA that does justify his point of view. You just talk rubbish, over, and over again, a constant stream of verbal diarrhea. The reason? I can only hazard a guess.

So maybe you will put me on ignore, then?

You seem to be resorting to name calling, again, without any real basis. I sense that it is much easier for you to stick with easy terms and conclusions rather than responding to logic or reason or good faith attempts at communicating substance.

I cannot summarize what i do in this thread as succinctly as your conclusory assertions, but sometimes I am responding to other posts, such as yours, sometimes I am talking about my own personal decision-making process when trying to decide whether to buy or sell BTC and sometimes I am trying to predict the direction of BTC prices.

Generally, I am NOT trying to persuade others whether they should buy or sell or hodl, even though sometimes those words are in my vocabulary and i do use them from time to time to asssert a sort of prediction of the best strategy at the moment.

I have no problem with bearish predictions, except to the extent that there may be some disinformation contained within some of the bearish posts (sometimes the disinformation seems purposeful and other times such disinformation may NOT have been purposefully propagated), especially in these last several months the bearish predictions seem to have been correct b/c there has been a downward price trend, as we all know.

Really few of us can really predict the direction of BTC prices, yet some of us just do our best to attempt to decide what to do personally to account for the risk within our own investment priorities. This thread can be helpful to get current and historical information - if one can get passed some of the FUD information - which generally seems a lot more prevalent on the long-term bear-side of the camp. Short-term bear may be a different story about making a prediction that may be based on actual facts to the best that they can be known.

Regarding perma-bull name. I am generally bullish in the long term, but NOT perma-anything. If there are facts that get me to change my perspectives about bitcoin, then I will reconsider my investment and my investment strategies.

I really don't know what to say to you. Really you need to re-read all your posts.

You miss quote people, you only read what you want to read, you troll the same stuff over and over, you make false accusations. You say things like "You seem to be resorting to name calling, again," after i responded to your "spout out a bunch of shit".

I tried to offer the olive branch the other day. But I decided today there is no point with people like you. You have your mind set and don't care what others think.

You are really are either a troll or worse yet you believe the drivel that comes out of your cake hole, end of story.

Yes, it is difficult to have a conversation with someone resorting to name calling. Exhibit A above.

I hope you will improve, but I realize that hoping may be all that I am able to do in these kinds of circumstances b/c I do NOT expect to be able to positively influence your interaction style or anything like that.. at least, NOT in the short-term when you are acting so self-righteous.

Quote from: roslinpl on April 13, 2014, 09:02:51 PM

Quote from: ChartBuddy on April 13, 2014, 09:00:23 PM

Explanation

~410 so good

Next sunday - same time ~700$

Remember my words!

Just DO NOT edit or delete this post, and we will NOT need to remember, we can refer back. I hope you are correct with that prediction.. seems a bit too rosey to me, but not outside of the realm of reasonably possible.

Quote from: boumalo on April 13, 2014, 11:12:44 PM

Quote from: cbeast on April 13, 2014, 09:47:46 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 13, 2014, 09:45:43 PM

There is only one flow it can take in the Bitcoin economy and that is from the sucker to the scammer.

The best definition of free market capitalism, ever.

When the sc.ammers are in power the sucker lose more, people complain about the private companies fixing markets but the FED is fixing the market rate and the USD

I'm more worried about the potential for stolen coins and/or government repossessed coins being used by bad actors to manipulate the BTC market... b/c those coins have NOT been paid for, but they can be used with someone with deep pockets to operate at a loss for a very long time but to undermine bitcoin.. if in the wrong hands. On the other hand, if coins are being acquired at market rates, then even if the whale or govt is operating at a loss.. sooner or later they will run out of coins.. so it seems... so inevitably, the price has got to go up.. as long as we do NOT lose confidence in the meantime.

Quote from: chessnut on April 13, 2014, 11:28:48 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 11:18:57 PM

Quote from: roslinpl on April 13, 2014, 09:02:51 PM

Quote from: ChartBuddy on April 13, 2014, 09:00:23 PM

Explanation

~410 so good

Next sunday - same time ~700$

Remember my words!

Just DO NOT edit or delete this post, and we will NOT need to remember, we can refer back. I hope you are correct with that prediction.. seems a bit too rosey to me, but not outside of the realm of reasonably possible.

you seem to be alluding sometimes to my argument with nano brain.... Roll Eyes

there is nothing wrong with editing a post quickly after it was made if you have forgotten a detail.... the edit in question was made before the market changed at all, in fact, within 3 minutes. I do not edit my old posts, certainly not to meet the market. why the hell would I?

I wasn't referring to any specific incident, and within a reasonably short period such as an hour or NO one has yet responded to your post, then surely it is reasonable to edit the post or even delete it. Otherwise, I am of the personal opinion that it is better to just leave old posts as they were - grammar errors or inaccuracies or whatever...

I do recall that one of the posts you put in some words of attribution for someone... and probably in that case, it would have been good to note it (or maybe say it in small type ... ).. whatever, it was kind of a joke or a way to dig in at someone in a strategic way... ..

Quote from: Newfeeling on April 13, 2014, 11:46:08 PM

Quote from: wolfeen on April 13, 2014, 11:42:43 PM

Additional options to have the repo government BTC marketm treat, but the long-term damage to the deep pockets that anyone can use, but this is the first time in the wrong hands, and / or stealing money from the currency in the attack. : Deterioration Wikipedia. As long as you do not trust the market to buy foreign currency not lose .., on the other hand, it is certain, or GS .. sometimes .. can not even run out of money ... and the inevitable price.

what

Wolfeen may have been using google translate. Cheesy

Quote from: chessnut on April 13, 2014, 11:51:50 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 11:41:51 PM

I do recall that one of the posts you put in some words of attribution for someone... and probably in that case, it would have been good to note it (or maybe say it in small type ... ).. whatever, it was kind of a joke or a way to dig in at someone in a strategic way... ..

oh yeah, that one... was more of a joke but turns out she was very annoyed at having her character defiled on a public site.... funny that.

Yeah.. pretty funny if you are quoting some bear with bullish comments or even quoting a bull with bearish comments... or to say that such and such bear says that such and such bull is wonderful or the opposite.... and NOT really that big of a deal... whether you fixed it or NOT.. Probably, i would have fixed it... but then if someone is ordering me to fix something, then probably, i will be less inclined to fix it... Cheesy

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 01:26:58 AM

I just noticed that on Apr/09 some "nice person" edited my entry in Wikipedia, adding the statement that I am an enthusiastic bitcoin investor and owner of one of the 500 largest bitcoin fortunes. (The anonymous "nice person" who did it used the IP 145.101.24.158, which is registered to "Openbare Bibliotheek Amsterdam, Keizersgracht 440, Nl-1016 Gd, The Netherlands".) Angry

Apart from the attempt to harm me personally, I deeply resent the vandalization of Wikipedia for such purposes. But I should not be surprised. Unfortunately the bitcoin "ecosystem", from the "patriarchs" and "whales" down to the drooling daytraders, seems to be heavily infested by people who are capable of much worse things.

Which is another reason why I am extremely skeptical about the success of bitcoin. Why would the world agree to cede control of the global internet currency to such "adorable" people, and let them steal a large slice of its wealth? Tongue

There are likely a lot of smart people into bitcoin and a lot of smart people reading this thread, too. And surely, you also know that there are a lot of very smart people into various developments related to bitcoin.

But Jorge you should also realize by NOW that merely b/c some supposed bitcoin enthusiast painted you as being connected to bitcoin, that does NOT change the fact that bitcoin in essence does NOT have people controlling it b/c it is decentralized and peer to peer. Also, even though there are various transfers of wealth going on within bitcoin from the old rich to the new rich and also some battles by the old rich (likely to keep the young punks from taking too much wealth), in the end profiting off of bitcoin is NOT the same as giving up fiat sovereignty to a bunch of thugs. The fact of the matter is that the current money system is filled with thugs and has been filled with thugs for a while.. big bankers, the Fed and also people running the IMF are filled with thugs of various sorts, who are heads above the level of any supposed bitcoin thugs.

Quote from: chessnut on April 14, 2014, 03:10:38 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 02:47:08 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 14, 2014, 02:12:18 AM

I once left my motorcycle outside downtown with the ignition hotwired. It wasnt there when I came back. I don't blame the city. I don't defame it or consider its people more or less criminal than those of other cities.

Come on, it was not that petty vandalism of Wikipedia that gave me that negative view of the bitcoin "ecosystem". It is the bulk of what I have read over these four months, especially the hype coming from the "great names".

Bitcoin was crippled by two great disasters: first, its adoption by "libertarians", and, second, the blooming of the Chinese market. These developments turned what could have been a great e-commerce invention into the instrument of a legion of skimmers, scammers, and common criminals. Will the "pure" bitcoiners (if there are any left) have the will and power to get rid of those parasites, before they kill the idea? I don't see that happening.

'parasites' will save bitcoin if all else fails. one day we may be criminals for using bitcoin, but that wont kill bitcoin, or it wont stop bitcoin 2.0. What is a 'pure' bitcoiner?

I could have seen the criminalization of bitcoin a few months ago; however, in recent months bitcoin, at least in the USA is moving more and more towards attempts at coopting aspects of bitcoin and regulating bitcoin to some extent. Currently, these moves have made criminalization of bitcoin as a whole, less and less likely; however, I can still envision various kinds of conduct related to bitcoin that will remain confusing and there will likely be a lot of divide and conquer related to bitcoin.. especially various attempts to escape or to manuever around the various ambiguous regulations that are likely to evolve to keep us all on our toes.. so you are still going to need to be connected or to maintain appearances of being mainstream in order to be more insured against being prosecuted, persecuted and/or having your bitcoins or other tangible property taken from you.... with da government seems to like to do.

Quote from: nanobrain on April 14, 2014, 03:30:14 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 13, 2014, 11:51:50 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2014, 11:41:51 PM

I do recall that one of the posts you put in some words of attribution for someone... and probably in that case, it would have been good to note it (or maybe say it in small type ... ).. whatever, it was kind of a joke or a way to dig in at someone in a strategic way... ..

oh yeah, that one... was more of a joke but turns out she was very annoyed at having her character defiled on a public site.... funny that.

Gosh...I'm reminded of an Oscar Wilde quote.

Just to clarify.

Chessnut was compelled to delete a post in which he had falsely created a post by myself; he then tried to use that forged post to coerce me, thus revealing his true character. Here is a young boy who desperately needs the attention and validation of an internet forum: when he is caught out by his own words he resorts to personal attacks and then to manipulating posts in the last resort to 'win' an argument.

I have no 'reputation' or 'character' to be 'defiled' (I wonder if Chessnut means the real meaning of the word, probably not), these are constructs he places a value upon: yet he seeks to belittle new users here at every opportunity often under the guise of 'help'.

He is a bully and while the males ignore the yelping puppy, he is irate to distraction that a woman twice his age and more berates his behaviour.

Nanobrain,

You have come out with some pretty big doosies yourself... You should NOT consider Chestnut a threat to you.. if it really is true that you are much older than him, then show some maturity yourself.

I have seen Chestnut get bullied by a bunch of other posters here, too... and then he seems to NOT be sophisticated enough to handle all the crap that is thrown at him..

Anyhow, my point is that even though Chestnut may exaggerate a bit ---- he does NOT seem to be engaging any meaningful and purposefully harmful conduct... NOT that i have seen, so far. Even the post in which he made a false attribution to you praising him... that merely seem to be an attempt to get back at you in a humorous way... which you took personal... so why let a little kid win.. if you truly are the adult, you should be able to figure out ways to persuade him to cooperate rather than seeming to order him around... or to berate him... that tactic does NOT seem productive in my thinking.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 14, 2014, 03:52:32 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 02:47:08 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 14, 2014, 02:12:18 AM

I once left my motorcycle outside downtown with the ignition hotwired. It wasnt there when I came back. I don't blame the city. I don't defame it or consider its people more or less criminal than those of other cities.

Come on, it was not that petty vandalism of Wikipedia that gave me that negative view of the bitcoin "ecosystem". It is the bulk of what I have read over these four months, especially the hype coming from the "great names".

Bitcoin was crippled by two great disasters: first, its adoption by "libertarians", and, second, the blooming of the Chinese market. These developments turned what could have been a great e-commerce invention into the instrument of a legion of skimmers, scammers, and common criminals. Will the "pure" bitcoiners (if there are any left) have the will and power to get rid of those parasites, before they kill the idea? I don't see that happening.

So let me get this straight: Bitcoin was crippled by smart people spotting the value of it before you? Libertarians and Chinese have average I.Q.s substantially higher than Latin Americans, Buddy. It doesn't mean we always use those brains wisely and we may be naive to think others generally play fair, but that's projection. It's because we do play fair. My money is at the risk of the market and yours is guarded by Statist thugs. You have no problem with government jackboots as long as they are under your control. It's not the Chinese involvement that's crippling Bitcoin right now. It's the PBoC's involvement.

Everyone knows Sao Paulo is a shithole. Coming from your perspective, You may think the whole world is a shithole too. It's not. We will absorb the Chinese dump if it happens at some price level. I don't know what that level is and I don't have to. It will likely take months or years to consolidate before the next rally and that's fine too.

Howz the Real doing, Prof? Ya got great confidence in your national currency? I read the story about how it was created. I couldn't believe Brazilians were that stupid. Then I started reading your posts. You rail against private sector scammers and ignore the greatest scammers of all: The governments of the world. Then you say "Yes, the government has problems, but it would be so much better if only people like me were in charge." That would be a disaster. I'm comforted by the fact that the sociopaths who run the governments would never let that happen.

You don't know shit about economics. You don't even think there is anything to know. You're not even coherent enough to be wrong. Incentives work. Can you get that into your thick bald head? This will blow over. It's going to suck in the meantime, but at least I won't have to wait it out in a suburb of a giant slum that smells like a sewer.

Even if Professor Jorge happens to be wrong about a few of these matters including his denigration of libertarians and chinese, and some of his analytical work regarding bitcoin seems to be biased, I do NOT see any reason in this situation to resort to personally insulting him or his country.

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on April 14, 2014, 06:48:03 AM

I guess today is the day that the bears get wiped out?

Good riddance, they were getting annoying.

"getting annoying?" They have been quite annoying for a very long time and certainly, they were getting worse and worse b/c they have been on a four months roll... and even more of a roll for two months.. Maybe we need pics of bears rolling,, but sooner or later the rolling has got to stop b/c this baby is currently way under valued and gonna have to switch directions towards the upward..

Quote from: exponential on April 14, 2014, 06:51:47 AM

Being all fiat has me like Shocked

haha. It is risky but to be honest if I do miss the train it is not a big deal to me. I don't have tons invested and I'm just a kid with this being my first foray into the financial world. it has been a ton of fun so far and I have learned a lot!

For what are you waiting... if you are NOT in BTC, then you are NOT invested.. this is likely the time to be in BTC and NOT in fiat. I could see if we had an extended bull run.. then it may be feasible to get out of BTC and get into fiat for a while and see what happens... Here, on the other hand, we have had an extended bear run.. so the most logical place to be now is in BTC...

Anyhow, we all make our own choices regarding these kinds of investment decisions, anyhow.

Quote from: chessnut on April 14, 2014, 07:00:13 AM

Fonzie is a player. was a bull last time I saw him. he let it slip that he would only be around a few more weeks => professional troll + capitulation phase LOL

Yeah.. maybe his internship is over... for whoever the fuck was paying him to spread the fud

Quote from: rpietila on April 14, 2014, 10:37:57 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 11, 2014, 01:12:06 PM

Not that I felt any obligation to disclose, but I am happy to say that I finally managed to source BTC200 @400 off-exchange!

If this is with a stranger, how do you do escrow.. or trust that the BTC's will come through? Do you pay first, do you do it in person, do you do it without banks? don't you have a fee for the wiring of that much fiat?

Quote from: rpietila on April 14, 2014, 11:11:15 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 11:02:16 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 11, 2014, 01:12:06 PM

Not that I felt any obligation to disclose, but I am happy to say that I finally managed to source BTC200 @400 off-exchange!

If this is with a stranger, how do you do escrow.. or trust that the BTC's will come through? Do you pay first, do you do it in person, do you do it without banks? don't you have a fee for the wiring of that much fiat?

Because I am rpietila the Great, the other guy pays first. Unless he is even greater, like Goat or NewLiberty; then I pay first.

It is possible to send in pieces also, like what I did when trading goxBTC for BTC. At most, the other guy had BTC150 at risk although the total was much bigger.

With escrow there is the problem that the escrow person would need to more trustable than me, and they are becoming hard to find Grin

I am always open to suggestions, who to add to my "possible escrow intermediaries" list!

This is a very interesting issue and question for me b/c sometimes we will be dealing with people who are NOT reputable and may even be disreputable.

Actually, I thought the bitcoin white paper discusses this kind of distrust issue in regards to mining..

But anyhow, my point is that if there are two parties that want to engage in some kind of a transaction, we should have various systems in place to be able to engage in that transaction, even if we do NOT trust the other party. And, then when we bring Fiat into the mix, it becomes a little bit more complicated, but it could also be complicated making sure that you get the lamborgini.. or whatever.

I hear that BTC has some kinds of built in escrowing functions, but possibly applications need to be built upon those escrow functions.

I also hear that Mastercoin, colorcoin and Nxt are some examples of working on variations of decentralized exchanges. Certainly, I would rather NOT deal with any exchanges either, if that were possible to deal directly, and to be able to hang onto my bitcoins without having to entrust them to an exchange as the third party until I want to trade them directly with someone.

And then if you have more than $10K in fiat, isn't that a reportable event... ? There may also be bank fees, too? Who will carry $80K cash to starbucks?

Quote from: rpietila on April 14, 2014, 11:47:33 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 11:42:51 AM

And then if you have more than $10K in fiat, isn't that a reportable event... ? There may also be bank fees, too? Who will carry $80K cash to starbucks?

Answering these questions goes above my free consultation, sorry.

I had a lot of questions in my post, and I suppose some of these matters regarding decentralized exchanges will be resolved with time.

I share a lot of my information and experiences for free, and yes in some circles, I also charge for consultations, but to each their own about how much to share and whether or NOT to share certain kinds of information in public threads.

In any event, it would be nice to know what people are doing.. whether you or anyone else... b/c I know that there are various solutions that are being worked on.. I just am NOT sure about how I would proceed if dealing with amounts over $10k.. probably break it up.. .. but there may be other ways to accomplish these matters, as well.

Quote from: dreamspark on April 14, 2014, 11:48:28 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 11:42:51 AM

And then if you have more than $10K in fiat, isn't that a reportable event... ? There may also be bank fees, too? Who will carry $80K cash to starbucks?

There are ways and means to do everything if you either A) have the money or B) know the right people.

Yes, that makes sense... .. ... and sometimes we get these kinds of leads by participating in these kinds of forums..... .. but maybe some discussions may be by PM or in person.. depending on the subject matter.. and getting back to the trust issue...

Quote from: TERA on April 14, 2014, 12:05:04 PM

It's possible that these next couple days will be the last chance to sell above 460 for a year.

It is also possible that these next couple of days could be the last chance to buy below $460 for a year. Both are possible. Seems very likely that we are going to see a lot of days in the next year over $460.. maybe even 350 or more of them? I don't have a crystal ball.

Quote from: dreamspark on April 14, 2014, 12:08:35 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 11:54:12 AM

[snip]

Everything your saying has been said since $1 hence why its boring.

Read some of the old posts on this forum and see how your whining (about too much volatilty, high hopes, dump pumps, no real reason for the price etc etc ) is a complete regurgitation of things said before.

I wish you well but your wrong on so many counts. I have no doubt that once the price returns to previous ATH levels you will either turn uber bull or disapear off the forum as per usual.

You were wasting your time engaging with Pumpkinhead.. I had already tried.. and by about one or two posts, you could tell he was in LaLa Land or some kind of paid propaganda machine.

Quote from: dreamspark on April 14, 2014, 12:13:16 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 14, 2014, 11:54:35 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on April 14, 2014, 11:48:28 AM

There are ways and means to do everything if you either A) have the money or B) know the right people.

You can hardly A) if you don't B), and you lose A) if you don't B). That's why the odd-few bitcoiners who have managed to A), should come to Malla castle for the trainings on how to retain their bitcoins in the face of all the threats against them.

Although A can buy B and B often leads to A in the general sense not in Bitcoin land per se.

This is a selling tool to get guys to sign up for $500 courses or to be dependent upon so called experts and it works in almost any technical field... Sometimes it is well worth the $500, but not always...

Quote from: TERA on April 14, 2014, 12:21:50 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 12:19:39 PM

Quote from: TERA on April 14, 2014, 12:05:04 PM

It's possible that these next couple days will be the last chance to sell above 460 for a year.

It is also possible that these next couple of days could be the last chance to buy below $460 for a year. Both are possible. Seems very likely that we are going to see a lot of days in the next year over $460.. maybe even 350 or more of them? I don't have a crystal ball.

I know someone who actually has a crystal ball who I asked about Bitcoin and I still trust my TA more than her.

So what kind of odds are you giving it?

I do NOT claim to know too much about BTC in the short-term, but I am investing for the long term, and I was thinking at least two years, but I was fairly certain that we would know within this year whether BTC is going up or NOT.

You can even pick a larger number and predict that BTC will stay below $500 for at least half of the next year (or some other quantity). I am sure you would get bets on such a bearish prediction.

Personally, I have NO real idea, and I do NOT claim to have any real predictive capabilities (even though I spout them out here and there and within this thread b/c I am saying what I am thinking and putting my money on such thoughts, unless someone causes me to rethink my strategy).

In that regard, I would imagine in the next 365 days that we are more likely to see more days above $500 for that period rather than below $500 for that period. That would be a pretty interesting bet, and if if the bet were 50/50 odds, I may take it for some small amount.

I do NOT have enough foresight to know for sure, but I am sure that if you wanted to take such a bet, there would be plenty of posters in this thread that would be willing to bet you on that specific kind of prediction (maybe adjust the numbers a little bit to suit predictive values and what odds or any other details).

Quote from: rpietila on April 14, 2014, 12:30:35 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 12:28:15 PM

This is a selling tool to get guys to sign up for $500 courses or to be dependent upon so called experts and it works in almost any technical field... Sometimes it is well worth the $500, but not always...

$500 won't get you in sorry

We are talking about people who realistically need this kind of services, and they have more than BTC57. I don't mean any offense here.

EDIT: That still sounds smug to the extreme - let me explain more. The intention of the training is to gather people whose bitcoins are worth $500k or more at present (BTC1,000) and the facility will expand when the bitcoin price goes up, so that the lower threshold in bitcoins decreases, but in dollars it keeps going up, unless many similar facilities spring up and offer better services more cheaply. As far as I know, this is the first one with this kind of idea, but definitely not the last. Perhaps not many feel they need the service, but that is my business risk. It will anyway be a general purpose luxury country hotel and my holiday home.

No offense taken.... and it does sound a little elitist.. but that is your target audience.. no problem with that.

I was using $500 as an example as an easy to round number (I guess that I was being charitable in the service about which I was speculating).

Yes, I started investing in BTC in November 2013, and i have only accumulated 59 so far... It has been a slow grinding process, in part b/c of bad timing concerning when I got in. Yet some of these tricky and grinding situations are going to continue to exist for us regular folks (or later arrivers) to accumulate BTC... or whatever other investments that we may have.

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 12:35:31 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 12:22:25 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on April 14, 2014, 12:08:35 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 11:54:12 AM

[snip]

Everything your saying has been said since $1 hence why its boring.

Read some of the old posts on this forum and see how your whining (about too much volatilty, high hopes, dump pumps, no real reason for the price etc etc ) is a complete regurgitation of things said before.

I wish you well but your wrong on so many counts. I have no doubt that once the price returns to previous ATH levels you will either turn uber bull or disapear off the forum as per usual.

You were wasting your time engaging with Pumpkinhead.. I had already tried.. and by about one or two posts, you could tell he was in LaLa Land or some kind of paid propaganda machine.

You tried to convince me that it would be a smart choice to buy when the price was around 550. Lucky for me, I come from the LaLa Land where the propaganda machine told me not to buy.

I cannot recall trying to convince anyone to buy... but I have been making assertions that I have been buying BTC all the way down including at around $550 and lower and even higher. i have been buying BTC since $1200. Yes, I have said that many times - b/c that is when I started.

I also say that people make their own choices about how to proceed with their investment(s) based on a variety of factors, including risk profile and other investments and reasons why they are adding BTC to their mix.

Anyhow, you could be correct that prices will continue to go down.. but I have already experienced that you tend to be in la la land regarding your willingness to discuss reality rather than some made up sets of circumstances.

Quote from: dreamspark on April 14, 2014, 12:36:10 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 12:28:15 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on April 14, 2014, 12:13:16 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 14, 2014, 11:54:35 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on April 14, 2014, 11:48:28 AM

There are ways and means to do everything if you either A) have the money or B) know the right people.

You can hardly A) if you don't B), and you lose A) if you don't B). That's why the odd-few bitcoiners who have managed to A), should come to Malla castle for the trainings on how to retain their bitcoins in the face of all the threats against them.

Although A can buy B and B often leads to A in the general sense not in Bitcoin land per se.

This is a selling tool to get guys to sign up for $500 courses or to be dependent upon so called experts and it works in almost any technical field... Sometimes it is well worth the $500, but not always...

This is going off on abit of a tangent from the first conversation, we we're talking about how to move larger amounts of money from one place to another, courses and expert advice isn't needed for this just either A or B as first said.

I don't think that it is going off on a tangent if some people are telling you that you need B) in order to manage A) better... and part of the suggestion is courses.. .... yes, there is some of that going on, and I did NOT initially bring the conversation there.. but identified that was where the conversation was going or at least an underlying thread of such conversation.

Quote from: TERA on April 14, 2014, 12:44:38 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 12:41:09 PM

Quote from: TERA on April 14, 2014, 12:21:50 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 12:19:39 PM

Quote from: TERA on April 14, 2014, 12:05:04 PM

It's possible that these next couple days will be the last chance to sell above 460 for a year.

It is also possible that these next couple of days could be the last chance to buy below $460 for a year. Both are possible. Seems very likely that we are going to see a lot of days in the next year over $460.. maybe even 350 or more of them? I don't have a crystal ball.

I know someone who actually has a crystal ball who I asked about Bitcoin and I still trust my TA more than her.

So what kind of odds are you giving it?

I do NOT claim to know too much about BTC in the short-term, but I am investing for the long term, and I was thinking at least two years, but I was fairly certain that we would know within this year whether BTC is going up or NOT.

You can even pick a larger number and predict that BTC will stay below $500 for at least half of the next year (or some other quantity). I am sure you would get bets on such a bearish prediction.

Personally, I have NO real idea, and I do NOT claim to have any real predictive capabilities (even though I spout them out here and there and within this thread b/c I am saying what I am thinking and putting my money on such thoughts, unless someone causes me to rethink my strategy).

In that regard, I would imagine in the next 365 days that we are more likely to see more days above $500 for that period rather than below $500 for that period. That would be a pretty interesting bet, and if if the bet were 50/50 odds, I may take it for some small amount.

I do NOT have enough foresight to know for sure, but I am sure that if you wanted to take such a bet, there would be plenty of posters in this thread that would be willing to bet you on that specific kind of prediction (maybe adjust the numbers a little bit to suit predictive values and what odds or any other details).

I didn't claim to predict that either. I just said that it was possible, and I was basing solely on a 2011 chart. However, that's a very crude way to make a prediction. It all depends what events unfold in this time, especially those involving the opening and closing of exchanges.

I was NOT the only person that responded to your post, and it seems that some people took offense to it. I just tried to convert it into more specifics.. through the framing of a bet. I don't really care about bets very much; however, framing the bet can get us down to specifics to some extent.. especially when it seems that you were getting a little dig in at my comment about the crystal ball...

Well, you know we go based on a lot of things, and you put a lot of weight on TA graphs, at least that is what you say, and in the end each of us our going to buy or sell BTC based on various aspects, including our beliefs about the BTC fundamentals, as well as maybe other matters such as news and TA Graphs.

In that regard, if you are NOT even willing to take a bet that BTC prices will be below $500 for at least half of the next 365 days, then you would even be less confident that your statement about BTC never being above $460 was even a very probably statement in your own thinking.... probably well less than 1 or 2%, and yet you made it.

Anyhow, I do NOT want to argue about it, but it just seemed to be a quite outrageous thing to communicate as if it were possible based on the totality of what is going on with bitcoin.

Quote from: rpietila on April 14, 2014, 12:55:10 PM

("price" = exchange rate in Bitstamp, or a western exch with highest volume iff Bitstamp closes)

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 (less than 10%)
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 (less than 15%)
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 (less than 35%)
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 (more than 50%)
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 (more than 95%)
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 (more than 60%)
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 (more than 50%)
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 (less than 30%)
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 (less than 10%)
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 (less than 5%)
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 (less than 3%)
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 (less than 3%)
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 (less than 2%)
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 (less than .5%)

/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

I will add mine shortly in a separate post so you can quote this one if you like to join

I am an amateur at bitcoin but i still typed in my predictions, and it does seem to be a useful mental exercise, even though you are giving a lot of options and I believe you meant to say the remainder of 2014, but you could as well said in the next 365 days.

Quote from: rpietila on April 14, 2014, 12:59:51 PM

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 15%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 25%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 55%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 85%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 80%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 70%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 60%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 50%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 35%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 25%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 15%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

What a bull... and I say that as a compliment. hehehe...... and accordingly, i have a 15% chance that my 59BTC will be worth $10,000 each. that is present value of $10k x 59 x .15 = $88,500, and I have invested less than $35K.. therefore, my BTC are nearly worth 3x their current market value.. I better buy some more... he he he.

Quote from: ChrisML on April 14, 2014, 03:33:46 PM

The bottom was there, final.

Though, tommorow will be a special day. I sincerely hope things will go as I have planned. I bought a few more coins yesterday morning. I am 70% $400 range and 30% $700. I could SODL and make a little bit of profit, but shit, Yolo, right?

You can figure out your exact running tally of your cost per BTC by plugging your numbers into excel and then running a formula across the columns. I find it to be a very useful thing to monitor - because if I make some trades and either build up my BTC quantity or lower my BTC quantity b/c of those trades, my price per BTC will be inversely affected by that.

Below are descriptions for five of my columns in my excel spreadsheet, and I am sure there are numerous ways to be even more creative.

A) Total BTC
B) Avg $ per BTC     (Column A / Column C)
C) Total_$_Invested(including fees)
D) % Invested     (Column F / Column B)
E) Current BTC Cash_Value (Column F * Column A)
F) Current price per BTC

Quote from: Hen0xyd on April 14, 2014, 03:43:30 PM

Quote from: TakeTheSkyRoad on April 14, 2014, 03:24:52 PM

Ok, for the curious here are the impromptu survey results averaged over all 14 responses :

a) In 2014, price will visit below 100   5.80
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200   9.93
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300   20.86
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400   55.00
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500   89.18
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750   79.04
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000   72.50
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250   63.21
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000   52.50
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000   43.67
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000   31.21
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000   23.14
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000   10.86
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000   5.54

So the top range which the consensus feels strongly for is going above $1250 (63%) or at least $1000 (72%).
The next step up is a big step though at $2000.

As for myself I've only been price watching since June and trading since November so I don't feel confident enough to say.

Based on this data we could give a 1589$ equity, which is not surprising since most people on a bitcoin forum are at least long-term bulls. Also it's above the ATH.

Yeah, i would put the current value of BTC at between $750 and $850 (I am NOT sure whether my predicted values add up to that very accurately) - however, overall the forum seems to be much more bullish than me.

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 03:47:03 PM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on April 14, 2014, 03:40:34 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 03:14:51 PM

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol Cheesy

)

Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC?

Another example of your truly either NOT knowing what da fuck you are talking about or that you are purposefully just attempting to incite other posters.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 03:47:57 PM

Approximate annual inflation rates since Jan/2014:

Euro Area (Euro) 1%
USA (Dollar) 1.6 %
China (Yuan) 2%
Brazil (Real) 6.5%
Argentina (Peso) 11%
Venezuela (Bolívar) 54%
Bitcoinland (Bitcoin) 350%
Wink

O.k. You are very selective with the period of time that you selected.

With this, you are attempting to spin and to spread FUD.

Why don't you compare the inflation or deflation over various periods of time to put your numbers into a more accurate context... for example compare the period that you selected (January 2014 to April 2014) with April 2013 to April 2014 and/or compare your period with January 2011 to April 2014. You should reach the opposite conclusion that Bitcoin actually deflationary rather than inflationary.. which is likely going to continue into the long term future.. so long as bitcoin survives... and really may NOT be too fair to pick any currency, such as bitcoin over its adoption phase to be reflective of long term stability. The adoption phase number (in which we currently are in) are going to be quite a bit skewed in the deflationary direction - much more than later.

Quote from: dreamspark on April 14, 2014, 04:58:50 PM

Quote from: jl2012 on April 14, 2014, 04:53:54 PM

Quote from: Loaded on February 27, 2014, 06:44:04 AM

Quote from: jl2012 on February 27, 2014, 06:38:22 AM

Quote from: Peter R on February 27, 2014, 06:25:09 AM

Loaded is offering a reward for information leading to the recovery of personal and client funds stored at MtGox:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=489950.0

EDIT: Loaded is a great whale, for those that don't know.

I'm pretty surprised to learn he still has a sizable amount there. There was plenty of chance to arbitrage and get out in the last bubble, even with profit.

It was not sizable enough to warrant a flight to Japan. However, it is sizable enough to ruin my weekend.

Loaded has disappeared since his weekend got ruined by gox. Hope he's alright

I'm sure he's fine. Loosing money is always upsetting and I like loaded but he has plenty of coins to look at and cry, same cant be said for a lot of other people who lost their entire life savings.

Dreamspark:

How many coins are you thinking is "plenty?"

Anyone with 3,000 plus BTC can live fairly comfortable with passive income from that investment, even at today's seemingly quasi-suppressed BTC prices. Given the ongoing uncertainties and volatility of BTC, it seems that 3,000 or more BTC would provide a bit of a cushion built in for living passively and taking an approximate 4% annual distribution. Though if all of my investment was in BTC, and I was expecting to live passively off 3,000 BTC, I would have to diversify out of some of those holdings to feel comfortable... maybe less than 50% in BTC.

If an investor has fewer than the equivalent of 3,000 BTC contributing to his passive income, then s/he may still need to continue to work to build that nest egg. And, if that person has even higher financial aspirations then that's another story.

Quote from: throwaway on April 14, 2014, 05:46:19 PM

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 0%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 0%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = Undecided, sir.
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 100%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 100%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 100%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 100%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 1%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 1%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 1%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 1%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

Your projections are very black and white.. Almost nothing is 100% or 0% unless it is already happening or no way in hell that it is going to happen. Maybe you stopped rounding below 1%.. but still... 0%?

Some people confused 100% b/c they were literally reading the past into their future projections. You seem to NOT have made that particular mistake in your projection b/c you put item d) as undecided "sir" Wink

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 14, 2014, 06:39:52 PM

Quote from: stavrosss on April 14, 2014, 06:35:50 PM

Reading about the idiots who regularly loose money , in the previews posts -- there's no wonder . I just realize how simply you can go down , just seeing one exchange tricks . Yes , indeed we are some idiots here who loose money , and others , maybe connected with the exchanges , are laughing at us ! Very impressive business ....for them !

I'm pretty sure it won't be a loss to put you on ignore right now. Buh bye.

Yeah..... he he he.. nip the situation in the bud. Cheesy

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 06:44:22 PM

Since it is free, why not:
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 20%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 40%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 10%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 3%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 0.1%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 0.01%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 0.001%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 0.0001%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0.00001%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0.000001%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
These numbers were picked while wearing by bull mask. Grin

Congratulations... YOU are like one of the first bears (who has been accused of being a troll) to fully cooperate in such a specific guestimation of the future - which questions were framed by someone else (a bull).

And, yes, your projections seem fairly highly bearish but also seem to trend towards a feeling that you are projecting that we are going to linger in the current price range while slowly bleeding downward..

Quote from: Bronstad on April 14, 2014, 06:56:12 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 06:50:36 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 03:47:03 PM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on April 14, 2014, 03:40:34 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 03:14:51 PM

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol Cheesy

)

Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC?

Another example of your truly either NOT knowing what da fuck you are talking about or that you are purposefully just attempting to incite other posters.

GOOD EYE!!!!!

Sometimes I write "and/or," when making these kinds of statements, and this time, I just wrote "or." I think and/or would have been better - b/c I am NOT really sure if an "and" by itself would be accurate, either.

Thanks for providing opportunity for me to further clarify that point.

Quote from: niothor on April 14, 2014, 07:02:13 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 06:58:09 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 03:47:57 PM

Approximate annual inflation rates since Jan/2014:

Euro Area (Euro) 1%
USA (Dollar) 1.6 %
China (Yuan) 2%
Brazil (Real) 6.5%
Argentina (Peso) 11%
Venezuela (Bolívar) 54%
Bitcoinland (Bitcoin) 350%
Wink

O.k. You are very selective with the period of time that you selected.

With this, you are attempting to spin and to spread FUD.

Why don't you compare the inflation or deflation over various periods of time to put your numbers into a more accurate context... for example compare the period that you selected (January 2014 to April 2014) with April 2013 to April 2014 and/or compare your period with January 2011 to April 2014. You should reach the opposite conclusion that Bitcoin actually deflationary rather than inflationary.. which is likely going to continue into the long term future.. so long as bitcoin survives... and really may NOT be too fair to pick any currency, such as bitcoin over its adoption phase to be reflective of long term stability. The adoption phase number (in which we currently are in) are going to be quite a bit skewed in the deflationary direction - much more than later.

He's a bear , a real thought to be extinct cavebear

Yeah, but even a bear should have enough integrity to project with a little less obvious spin, and to put matters like this in context? These kinds of posts tend to show someone is being disingenuous b/c we certainly know from his various posts that he is intellectually capable of providing context and understanding sophisticated subtleties.

Quote from: rpietila on April 14, 2014, 07:03:11 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 06:44:22 PM

Since it is free, why not:
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 20%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 40%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 10%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 3%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 0.1%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 0.01%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 0.001%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 0.0001%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0.00001%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0.000001%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
These numbers were picked while wearing by bull mask. Grin

I am sure you can make some very profitable bets with the fellow posters, who have given quite different odds!

I propose geometric mean, such that:
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
=> sqrt(0.01*0.7) = 8.4%.

You pay 1 / 8.4% = 11.952 units if you lose
He pays 1 / 91.6% = 1.092 units if you win.

Normalized, this is 10.948 : 1.

Both people in the wager have about 8 times better odds than they estimated as current, wonder why there is so little of this! Grin

Jorge is NOT going to bet b/c he is really NOT committed to his numbers.

There are a few other posters here who are also NOT committed to their numbers.

I would make small bets on my projections especially if the spread is comfortable for me, and certainly it is easier to bet when you know someone else's projections in order to figure out the spread.

Quote from: aminorex on April 14, 2014, 07:05:01 PM

Quote from: Hen0xyd on April 14, 2014, 03:43:30 PM

Based on this data we could give a 1589$ equity, which is not surprising since most people on a bitcoin forum are at least long-term bulls. Also it's above the ATH.

That's about where I expect the capitulation to go after the next bubble deflates.

And, when is that next bubble coming... within the next 6 months?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 07:21:33 PM

Quote from: niothor on April 14, 2014, 06:54:53 PM

You're more of a bear than my cute avatar

My bear-masked estimates are

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

There is NO such thing as bear-masked or bull-masked... except to say best case scenarios and worst case scenarios. If you are unsure, then just put the projection in a range.....

Then to formulate any kind of bet, then that could be hammered out by understanding each of the party's assessment(s) of the situation

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 07:26:32 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 06:50:36 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 03:47:03 PM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on April 14, 2014, 03:40:34 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 03:14:51 PM

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol Cheesy

)

Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC?

Another example of your truly either NOT knowing what da fuck you are talking about or that you are purposefully just attempting to incite other posters.

At least try to debate against my arguments, not just make another failed attempt to insult me.
Have a cigarette, read a book, make some notes, relieve yourself from the anxiety of not getting rich without any work or education, and then try really hard. Please..

Yeah.. YOU would love to drag a variety of posters down your bullshit superficial and already debunked framings of the situation.

That is NOT an intellectual exercise or a meaningful debate, it is a waste of time.

I already know your MO. As soon as anybody attempts to reasonably discuss your assertions with you, then you will either change the facts or change the topic or come up with some other bullshit highly speculative scenario that has little to NO basis in reality.

In conclusion, largely a waste of time to accept many of your framings of the situation b/c you are far from being genuine in any kind of attempt to deal in the real world and to account for actual facts.

Quote from: wachtwoord on April 14, 2014, 07:52:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 07:39:13 PM

Dreamspark:

How many coins are you thinking is "plenty?"

Anyone with 3,000 plus BTC can live fairly comfortable with passive income from that investment, even at today's seemingly quasi-suppressed BTC prices. Given the ongoing uncertainties and volatility of BTC, it seems that 3,000 or more BTC would provide a bit of a cushion built in for living passively and taking an approximate 4% annual distribution. Though if all of my investment was in BTC, and I was expecting to live passively off 3,000 BTC, I would have to diversify out of some of those holdings to feel comfortable... maybe less than 50% in BTC.

If an investor has fewer than the equivalent of 3,000 BTC contributing to his passive income, then s/he may still need to continue to work to build that nest egg. And, if that person has even higher financial aspirations then that's another story.

What made you arrive at 3k BTC (at today's exchange rate $1.38M, or 1M Euro) as the cut-off point for living off passive income?

That 3k BTC number was kind of floating in my head based on one of my recent posts in another thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.msg6207547#msg6207547

I do NOT really mean that number as a cut-off point b/c I certainly realize that there are a lot of different people with a variety of expectations pertaining to how much passive income they would need to live comfortably... or even within their previous income / lifestyle range (more or less).

I understand that some people can feel that they are living fairly comfortable off of $10K per year, and others would feel impoverished if they were living off of $100K per year.

The 3k BTC number was kind of within my current considerations of an aspiration at least in today's circumstances and based on some of my own personal considerations.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 14, 2014, 08:13:16 PM

Quote from: boumalo on April 14, 2014, 07:24:42 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 14, 2014, 07:08:56 PM

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 14, 2014, 05:58:00 PM

Quote from: uhoh on April 14, 2014, 05:47:51 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 14, 2014, 05:35:24 PM

This is a very dangerous game. The levered shorts are hoping another China crash will come before they are force liquidated and the levered longs are counting on the shorts getting liquidated before the crash. Smart players like TERA are long but not levered, ready to pull the trigger and profit either way and I'm on the sidelines watching and learning.

The swap fees amount to somewhere around 60% annual interest. The pressure is building and is going to blow one way or the other.

The bear market didn't suddenly end because some exchange decided to invest in ATMs. China isn't suddenly irrelevant. A SUSTAINED reversal isn't something that happens this quickly with no big news. If it happens at all it happens slowly as utility value replaces speculative value.

The question every wise investor asks themselves is "Is time my friend or my enemy?" If time is your enemy, chances are you are on the wrong side of the trade.

I'm inclined to agree with you, but there has been unexplained reversals in the past (or rather, you find out the news after the run-up, which seems more likely these days with institutional money). Nice volume today though, gonna be an exciting week it seems.

and the idea that there has been plenty of good news and progress buried in the fear of China's policy making methods

There has been plenty of good news and progress, but the fundamentals haven't changed overnight by 17%. Fear of Gox closing dominated until it closed. Fear of China crashing will dominate until it crashes. If it doesn't crash, that fear will weigh on the market until some even bigger fear weighs on the market. Satoshi coins entering market, FBI coins, another exchange getting hacked or closing, regulatory doomsday, another prominent Bicoin personality getting arrested, or maybe someone just happens to find their four year old hard drive with hundreds of thousands of coins on it.

Good news doesn't mean as much in a bear market. People are looking for an excuse to sell, not to buy. There are people with substantial holdings without enough cash to wait out an extended bear market. They are selling little amounts to get by, extending the bear market. Things have to get worse before they get better. Capital has to move from incompetent managers to competent managers. That's why it's called a "correction".

We are in a bear market because good news are disregard, it will be the other way around when we will resume the bull market

Odds are we will dip again soon, it is way more likely than the scenario where we are already coming back up but at some point we will come back up and it will be crazy

There is a lot of potential for a big negative event such as the mtgox shut down but there is at least as much potential for a big positive event and I feel that we can overcome most big negative events when positive events will have a positive effect long term; the potential is so huge, 450$/BTC feels like a steal to me

$450 should be a steal, but it's not. The investing public is fickle. Nothing succeeds like success and nothing fails like failure. There is no certainty, but investing based on "feelings" usually doesn't pay as well and investing based on asymmetric information (insider trading). If you have a well diversified portfolio of more than $100,000 dollars, now would be a good time to buy a little, but obviously not as good of a time as two days ago @ $340. The risk is that you might have to wait a long time for your bet to pay off.. How long can you afford to wait?

I think Big Money is buying bitcoin right now, but they are buying off exchange and they are buying below market from miners. Those coins are just as likely to get dumped on the exchange for a guaranteed profit as they are to be held if some new disaster strikes. Buying right now may be a good long term investment, but it's an extremely risky short term speculation. What if the Overstock stockholders pressure the CEO to stop accepting bitcoin or something similar happens?

John Maynard Keynes was a flawed economist in my opinion, but he was one of the very few to actually make a fortune in the markets. He said "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". Many people have been force liquidated already and it's quite possible many more will be in the future. Bitcoin is a fantastic asset, but it is not worth risking insolvency over. We need financially healthy enthusiasts to form the base for the next rally, not bug-eyed gamblers.

I want bitcoin to go strait up from here, but I've been in this game for over three years and my experience tells my it's unlikely. Possible, but unlikely. TERA is an excellent trader who makes money in bull and bear markets. She understands order flows better than I do. When she says she thinks this probably isn't a final bottom, I believe her.

I used to play poker and I discovered that it's quite possible to make money in a game even if you know you aren't the best player. You just have to know who that player is and you have to stay out of his way. The one thing I know for sure in this market is that I'm not the best player. I may not even be a good player. I've learned a lot, but perhaps the most important thing I've learned is how little I know.

Being ignorant isn't dangerous. What is dangerous is being ignorant and unaware of your ignorance. People are likely going to be insolvent before this is over. Intellectually I know that it's ultimately a good thing and has to happen, but I'm not quite calloused enough to enjoy it. Maybe that's why I gave up poker.

Why don't you place your current predictions into the rpeitila prediction box? in order that we can see how your various probability allocations stack up.

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 08:27:59 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 08:23:39 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 07:26:32 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 06:50:36 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 03:47:03 PM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on April 14, 2014, 03:40:34 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 03:14:51 PM

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol Cheesy

)

Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC?

Another example of your truly either NOT knowing what da fuck you are talking about or that you are purposefully just attempting to incite other posters.

At least try to debate against my arguments, not just make another failed attempt to insult me.
Have a cigarette, read a book, make some notes, relieve yourself from the anxiety of not getting rich without any work or education, and then try really hard. Please..

Yeah.. YOU would love to drag a variety of posters down your bullshit superficial and already debunked framings of the situation.

That is NOT an intellectual exercise or a meaningful debate, it is a waste of time.

I already know your MO. As soon as anybody attempts to reasonably discuss your assertions with you, then you will either change the facts or change the topic or come up with some other bullshit highly speculative scenario that has little to NO basis in reality.

In conclusion, largely a waste of time to accept many of your framings of the situation b/c you are far from being genuine in any kind of attempt to deal in the real world and to account for actual facts.

The facts here are simple. BTC price is dependant on USD and it can be seen by merchants not willing to accept BTC without BitPay converting them right to USD. To those merchants, BTC is useless as a currency because it's not able to keep price stability. Only use they have for BTC is for marketing reasons and a possibility to lure in those who worship BTC.

Now, go, run boy. Buy yourself a brain and try to debate that.

Yes.. you have a way of denigrating... Whether this is a debate or NOT... maybe you are attempting to lure me into your various stupid-ass topics one by one.

O.k. I will bite a little bit.

Currently almost everything is pegged to the dollar, and the dollar is the most stable value point, at the moment in part because in its various forms it has nearly 20 trillion in various kinds of circulation.

These value point and reference points can change over time and they likely will change over time. As bitcoin gains more market capitalization and more liquidation possibilities, there will be less need to peg it to the dollar or to value it as compared with the dollar. Part of whether there will be a need to continue to peg BTC to the dollar will depend upon adoption levels of BTC - likely at least several years into the future in my thinking before BTC will NOT be pegged to some other currency - whether the dollar or some other currency.

Five years from now, we may be living in a different world, or if the dollar expectantly crashes, which is possible but not likely in the next several years in my thinking, unless there is a viable replacement, then we may see BTC pegged to some other currency... or if BTC were to achieve a trillion dollar market cap, then it may NOT need to be pegged to anything... possibly... It is also possible that more than a trillion dollar market cap will be needed before we can have a world with BTC that is NOT pegged to some other asset or currency... maybe $10 trillion in today's valuations would do?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 08:47:38 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 06:58:09 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 03:47:57 PM

Approximate annual inflation rates since Jan/2014:
[ ... ]

O.k. You are very selective with the period of time that you selected.

Why don't you compare the inflation or deflation over various periods of time to put your numbers into a more accurate context... for example compare the period that you selected (January 2014 to April 2014) with April 2013 to April 2014 and/or compare your period with January 2011 to April 2014. [ ... ]

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 08:47:38 PM

I already posted a full complete graph of that. Twice.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 06:58:09 PM

With this, you are attempting to spin and to spread FUD.

"FUD" as in "Facts and Undeniable Data"?

I think that I already made my point, and the fact that you are even misquoting FUD reflects worse on you and your motives.

Quote from: coins101 on April 14, 2014, 08:59:57 PM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on April 14, 2014, 08:01:47 PM

China trying to go higher.

I was in the bear camp at £300.

I hang my head in shame. It has survived China censorship and centrally controlled free market capitalism.

Never again will I doubt, The Bitcoin.

That's the spirit!!!! Cheesy

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 09:03:42 PM

Quote from: podyx on April 14, 2014, 08:50:55 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 08:42:00 PM

Aaand... we have another weak attempt to insult, without actually trying to debate the initial point that was made here.

I don't need to do anything but to tell you that you are wrong
I'm reading some of the most stupid arguments i've ever witnessed on this forum. Did you even think at all when posting?

It is a currency/asset which have had a ROI of 120,000 and nobody still barely have a clue where it is going, OF COURSE it will be volatile. Why can't you understand volatility will be reduced alot if it were to succeed

It's kinda if I were to make a drink in my basement that would sell better then coca cola and wonder why i'm not a billionaire yet

No offence though, its all neighborhood Grin

And more some weak attempts to insult + some weird rant that has nothing to do with the subject in question:

...............troll non-sense.....................

Yes, the troll is just trying to continue to find excuses to repeat his asinine points over and over.

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 09:32:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 09:16:08 PM

Yes.. you have a way of denigrating... Whether this is a debate or NOT... maybe you are attempting to lure me into your various stupid-ass topics one by one.

O.k. I will bite a little bit.

Currently almost everything is pegged to the dollar, and the dollar is the most stable value point, at the moment in part because in its various forms it has nearly 20 trillion in various kinds of circulation.

These value point and reference points can change over time and they likely will change over time. As bitcoin gains more market capitalization and more liquidation possibilities, there will be less need to peg it to the dollar or to value it as compared with the dollar. Part of whether there will be a need to continue to peg BTC to the dollar will depend upon adoption levels of BTC - likely at least several years into the future in my thinking before BTC will NOT be pegged to some other currency - whether the dollar or some other currency.

Five years from now, we may be living in a different world, or if the dollar expectantly crashes, which is possible but not likely in the next several years in my thinking, unless there is a viable replacement, then we may see BTC pegged to some other currency... or if BTC were to achieve a trillion dollar market cap, then it may NOT need to be pegged to anything... possibly... It is also possible that more than a trillion dollar market cap will be needed before we can have a world with BTC that is NOT pegged to some other asset or currency... maybe $10 trillion in today's valuations would do?

I was telling if USD would suffer a meltdown, then BTC would follow and you tried to insult me with all kinds of ways for saying it and trying to ridicule what I was saying. And now you are saying that this could change in the future?!?
Yes, it could, everything could happen. The messiah could come down to earth and save the world of half-witted little brats like you. But it isn't happening right now isn't it?

You are twisted, and I will let my post stand for itself.

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 09:32:58 PM

Now go back to the first post that you tried so hard to ridicule and you will see me saying this:

Quote

If bitcoin would get it's value elsewhere, for instance a major wheat supplier would accept BTC by itself, then there could be a different story. But right now, we don't even have small online stores, that want to accept BTC by itself, without BitPay, meaning without the support of USD.

But you were too dumb to read that, eh? All your concentration went on trying to insult me because I might bring forward some flaws of BTC that you consider as holy.

You are NOT making any insightful statement or facts or possibilities that have NOT already been sufficiently and adequately accounted for in my earlier discussion to whatever extent I chose to engage with your lamed brained ideas that tend to be attempt to talk about exceptions rather than rules..

Quote from: aminorex on April 14, 2014, 09:37:15 PM

2 hours left before this wedge times out and we definitely will have a new 5 min chart pattern, whatever that may be. clearly there is an uptrend in place with jumps. the uptrend rate is nigh constant since post-ATH low, while jumps are of decreasing size, and have an increasing probability of being negative in sum over a rolling window as time wears on. any such finite-time singularity suggests a trend change is immanent.

I'm rolling my buy ladder down and my sell ladder up, widening the steps, in anticipation of a possible burst of volatility.

In other words? seems that you are anticipating prices to go down in the next "burst"?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 09:47:45 PM

Quote from: Adrian-x on April 14, 2014, 09:31:25 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 08:04:44 PM

[ ... ]

He is the most sophisticated of all trolls; he instills doubt so deep the sheep ~~don’t~~ can't question. [ ... ] Wink

Uh, yes, the probabilities I posted are based on the assumption that you folks will not manage to drive me away from this thread. If I were to stop posting here, bitcoin would immediately shoot to the moon and beyond, of course. Grin

You bears must have a bear poole or something going on... b/c one bear would NOT be sufficient to have any effect on the price of bitcoin. Maybe we need a pic of a bear poole?

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 09:58:09 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 09:50:00 PM

You are twisted, and I will let my post stand for itself.

Consider yourself lucky, that you will probably never find out, on how twisted I could actually be with disrespectful little brats like you.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 09:50:00 PM

You are NOT making any insightful statement or facts or possibilities that have NOT already been sufficiently and adequately accounted for in my earlier discussion to whatever extent I chose to engage with your lamed brained ideas that tend to be attempt to talk about exceptions rather than rules..

I was debating aminorex's argument where he said that BTC would benefit from the devaluation of the dollar.
And there you came, having absolutely no clue on what is exactly going on, and then attempting to throw personal insults at me.

Each of your points here is filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact.

I see no real value into getting drug into such tangential stream of consciousness type scenarios, so accordingly, and as far as I'm concerned, the substance of various referenced historical posts can speak for themselves.

Quote from: aminorex on April 14, 2014, 10:01:18 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 09:52:38 PM

Quote from: aminorex on April 14, 2014, 09:37:15 PM

2 hours left before this wedge times out and we definitely will have a new 5 min chart pattern, whatever that may be. clearly there is an uptrend in place with jumps. the uptrend rate is nigh constant since post-ATH low, while jumps are of decreasing size, and have an increasing probability of being negative in sum over a rolling window as time wears on. any such finite-time singularity suggests a trend change is immanent.

I'm rolling my buy ladder down and my sell ladder up, widening the steps, in anticipation of a possible burst of volatility.

In other words? seems that you are anticipating prices to go down in the next "burst"?

BTCUSD already outperformed my expectations by exceeding my wednesday target overnight. I no longer have a view, until something new materializes. When I have no view, I try to scoop pennies by market making, but I only look at the screen every couple of hours during working days, so I am not aggressively making market. If I think vol is likely to rise, I spread out my bids and asks.

Blame me for being a noob... but when you say "vol" are you referring to volatility or volume or both or somthing else? I am NOT sure which to guess....

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 10:10:13 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 10:05:38 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 09:58:09 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 09:50:00 PM

You are twisted, and I will let my post stand for itself.

Consider yourself lucky, that you will probably never find out, on how twisted I could actually be with disrespectful little brats like you.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 09:50:00 PM

You are NOT making any insightful statement or facts or possibilities that have NOT already been sufficiently and adequately accounted for in my earlier discussion to whatever extent I chose to engage with your lamed brained ideas that tend to be attempt to talk about exceptions rather than rules..

I was debating aminorex's argument where he said that BTC would benefit from the devaluation of the dollar.
And there you came, having absolutely no clue on what is exactly going on, and then attempting to throw personal insults at me.

Each of your points here is filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact.

I see no real value into getting drug into such tangential stream of consciousness type scenarios, so accordingly, and as far as I'm concerned, the substance of various referenced historical posts can speak for themselves.

Ok, bring forward the points that I have made, that are filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact.
If you fail to do that then I'm seriously starting to reconsider on finding a way to show you how twisted I can really be.
Now try really hard, a lot could be at stake here.

I'm NOT going to play your annoying little game, you perverted and twisted fuck.

Your posts speak for themselves, unless you edited or deleted them, and i have NO current plan to spend any of my time in such an endeavor to research them or to look them up.. since they have mostly been dribble, from my perspective..

Also, I have little intent to spend my time with someone who by almost every post can be determined to be disingenuous in regards to dealing in realities and/or meaningful and adult discussions.

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 10:23:47 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 10:17:11 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 10:10:13 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 10:05:38 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 09:58:09 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 09:50:00 PM

You are twisted, and I will let my post stand for itself.

Consider yourself lucky, that you will probably never find out, on how twisted I could actually be with disrespectful little brats like you.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 09:50:00 PM

You are NOT making any insightful statement or facts or possibilities that have NOT already been sufficiently and adequately accounted for in my earlier discussion to whatever extent I chose to engage with your lamed brained ideas that tend to be attempt to talk about exceptions rather than rules..

I was debating aminorex's argument where he said that BTC would benefit from the devaluation of the dollar.
And there you came, having absolutely no clue on what is exactly going on, and then attempting to throw personal insults at me.

Each of your points here is filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact.

I see no real value into getting drug into such tangential stream of consciousness type scenarios, so accordingly, and as far as I'm concerned, the substance of various referenced historical posts can speak for themselves.

Ok, bring forward the points that I have made, that are filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact.
If you fail to do that then I'm seriously starting to reconsider on finding a way to show you how twisted I can really be.
Now try really hard, a lot could be at stake here.

I'm NOT going to play your annoying little game, you perverted and twisted fuck.

Your posts speak for themselves, unless you edited or deleted them, and i have NO current plan to spend any of my time in such an endeavor.. especially with someone who by almost every post can be determined to be disingenuous in regards to dealing in realities and/or meaningful and adult discussions.

Remember this moment. There will be a day, not soon, but it won't take very long either, when you'll ask yourself "why is this happening to me?", then remember that you brought this on yourself. You had a choice and you took the choice.
But don't worry, I'm just a random snot-nosed geek trying to troll you. Not like I have the capabilities and means to do something that you would strongly care about.
You take care now. I think I'll rest for today.

You are engaging in threats b/c someone on a quasi-anonymous forum will NOT play games with you?

Quote from: KFR on April 14, 2014, 10:41:14 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2014, 10:17:11 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 14, 2014, 10:10:13 PM

...

I'm NOT going to play your annoying little game...

<sigh> You already are. You have been for a while. See that ignore? Clicky. Stop wasting your time. Read more, post less, ignore trolls - this is good advice meant with the very best of intentions.

Seriously, go outside and take a deep breath of fresh air. And relax. Cool

Yeah, I usually do NOT call posters names, such as "perverted and twisted fuck." That was a bit beyond my normal. Regarding engaging another poster, we each have our differing styles.. but there are quite a few trolls in this thread. I wonder why the forum doesnt have stricter policies to control such...... besides the ignore button?

Quote from: Newfeeling on April 15, 2014, 02:48:11 AM

Quote from: hmmmstrange on April 15, 2014, 02:28:01 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 15, 2014, 12:46:21 AM

Quote from: hmmmstrange on April 14, 2014, 11:42:18 PM

Is your time here part of a funded research project? If so, what are the predicted benefits to those of which have funded you? Is the funding private or public?

I am a full professor of computer science at a public university, with a fixed salary, light teaching load, a few grad students, no admin duties at the moment, a foot in a slow-going research project, and freedom to choose my research topics. And also occasional public advocate on social things like electronic voting.

I believe that bitcoin is a terrible investment at this time. I think I owe to the people who pay my salary to tell them so, and why. But unfortunately the salesmen are knocking at the door (in the last two weeks, warm "news" articles about bitcoin suddenly appeared in all the major media - usually without mentioning MtGOX, Neo&Bee, China bans, the falling price, ....) Angry

As to "freedom to choose my research topics":

How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?

If Bitcoin is as important and/or valuable as we think it to be...having someone take the opposing side like this won't hurt. Spending hundreds of hours researching and scrutinizing something that some of us think will be worth trillions is peanuts in comparison, and in my opinion: a valuable deed on behalf of Prof Stolfi.

I'm all for going to the moon and such, but having regular reality checks from people like Prof. Stolfi keeps my belly kool-aid free and prevents my head from going too far up into my colon.

You seem to be giving Jorge too much credit. I do NOT have anything personal against him; b/c he is generally polite enough; however, frequently, he presents matters in a very biased way which does NOT seem to be academic quality. I have NOTHING against bears and I have NOTHING against arguing the bear case. However, frequently, Jorge will present these matters in a very tricky way and selectively choosing his data to make the negative case.. when there is obvious evidence he is excluding and choosing to leave out of his analysis.

In my understanding an academic should attempt to remain neutral, and I believe that is what causes many to accuse Jorge of being funded and to be biased by his funding sources... in other words, he is claiming to be a neutral bear when he is NOT neutral.. but he does appear to be a bear.

Quote from: hmmmstrange on April 15, 2014, 03:23:25 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 15, 2014, 02:41:01 AM

Quote from: hmmmstrange on April 15, 2014, 02:28:01 AM

As to "freedom to choose my research topics":

How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?

Hint: I am a professor of computer science. Guess where the idea of bitcoin came out of?

And methinks that if I could prevent a few folks here losing their life savings to scammers, Brazilian or otherwise, that may already justify my salary. Which may be more than I deserve, but is not exactly taken at gunpoint from them,

With Brazil's cpi at over 6% and food prices over 20% annual inflation because your government can't rob enough people fast enough, they have to print money to cover your salary. Maybe you should study how you can prevent ALL of your country's population to lose 6% of their wealth each year instead of a few people getting scammed.

NOT easy for an academic to criticize the ways of his own govt. And to be fair, the problem with fiat is with most of the govts around the world and is NOT particular to Brazil. Actually, a lot of countries in south america have been really screwed over the past 30 years by the IMF and forced into various kinds of cutting of social programs and specialization to serve the needs of the USA... however, several of the countries have stood up to those specialization pressures... and said screw paying back the loans through the IMF (I think Argentina is one of them) and have created more diversified and self-sustaining economies, which the USA considers a form of hostility. Whatever the situation, there are a lot more injustices occurring through various forms of fiat manipulation rather than through bitcoin.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 15, 2014, 03:39:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 15, 2014, 03:30:54 AM

Quote from: hmmmstrange on April 15, 2014, 03:23:25 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 15, 2014, 02:41:01 AM

Quote from: hmmmstrange on April 15, 2014, 02:28:01 AM

As to "freedom to choose my research topics":

How can you justify to yourself to take money from the people at gunpoint to research bitcoin for hundreds of hours? How about researching wasteful spending by tenured professors?

Hint: I am a professor of computer science. Guess where the idea of bitcoin came out of?

And methinks that if I could prevent a few folks here losing their life savings to scammers, Brazilian or otherwise, that may already justify my salary. Which may be more than I deserve, but is not exactly taken at gunpoint from them,

With Brazil's cpi at over 6% and food prices over 20% annual inflation because your government can't rob enough people fast enough, they have to print money to cover your salary. Maybe you should study how you can prevent ALL of your country's population to lose 6% of their wealth each year instead of a few people getting scammed.

NOT easy for an academic to criticize the ways of his own govt. And to be fair, the problem with fiat is with most of the govts around the world and is NOT particular to Brazil. Actually, a lot of countries in south america have been really screwed over the past 30 years by the IMF and forced into various kinds of cutting of social programs and specialization to serve the needs of the USA... however, several of the countries have stood up to those specialization pressures... and said screw paying back the loans through the IMF (I think Argentina is one of them) and have created more diversified and self-sustaining economies, which the USA considers a form of hostility. Whatever the situation, there are a lot more injustices occurring through various forms of fiat manipulation rather than through bitcoin.

Nobody forced them to take out the loans in the first place. They screwed themselves over. "Those asshole lenders, they actually expect me to pay them back." Gimme a break. These third world countries were begging for loans and agreed to conditions. Then they balked at honoring the conditions after they already agreed to them. The they begged to renegotiate the terms, got the new terms and balked at them too!

I agree that the IMF crowd are glorified loan sharks, but if you borrow from loan sharks you should be prepared to suffer the consequences.

EDIT: and if you think Argentina's economy is self-sustaining, then you are delusional. It's a basket case.

I don't really want to get into a long debate, but in essence we could probably agree that there are a lot of complications with various actors in the region and even though I have studied some of this (many years ago), I know enough to realize that there are patterns of pressure from the USA intervention and some countries have been better than others in dealing with these matters.

Regarding your last point about Argentina, I do NOT claim to be any kind of effort - but I was making the assertion that when they refused to pay their IMF loan, that caused a lot of additional pressures on them. But NONE of the countries really want to be export countries and only produce some low paid product and then to be dependent upon the USA to dictate their situation(s). Whether they are successful or NOT may be another story with additional intricacies, if we were to delve into the specifics, and I am sure there are on the ground people who are much more qualified than either of us to give us some of these facts.

We probably agree that in the end, bitcoin can have a variety of liberating aspects for the people of many of these countries in south america

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 15, 2014, 05:27:30 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 15, 2014, 03:30:54 AM

NOT easy for an academic to criticize the ways of his own govt.

Actually we have been fortunate enough for the past 25 years to enjoy a fairly good level of freedom of speech, arguably better than Americans. There are cases of libel laws used to silence journalists and bloggers, but they usually come from corrupt lower officials, mostly opposition, and private citizens. The federal government (from both parties) has been admirably tolerant of criticism (and the main media have used and abused that freedom against Lula and Dilma).

In fact, most of my public testimonials and press interviews about electronic voting have been criticism of the equipment which is the joy and pride of the Electoral Justice, whose president is a Supreme Court judge; and the criticism basically implies that the Electoral Justice is incompentent if or worse. And in my tweets I have often and harshly critized both the São Paulo education secretariat, the Federal education minister (now Dilma's Chief of Staff) and several other ministries, the Supreme Court and the Judiciary in general, and several other miscellaneous authorities. I have been mostly ignored, of course, but I never felt any pressure to shut up; and ditto for uncountable other critics. (Hm, after writing this list I am now starting to worry... Wink

)

Thx for the explanation of your circumstances... I would NOT know enough to be able to really make any strong arguments, but I know that several posters here, including myself, question your objectivity in regard to your supposed scholarly work related to bitcoin and your presentation of various conclusions here.

Surely I do NOT expect necessarily that you need to explore all options b/c your research could lead you to bear conclusions; however, there just seem to be so many instances in which I have seen and other have pointed out your renditions that seem to be purposefully deceptive and we know that you are smarter than that.. that you know some basic or material facts that are central to the question that you are asking but then you remain dabbling on the fringe with some kinds of extreme facts, even though those facts may be true, they are NOT the main motivating forces.

Well, anyhow, I am glad for you on a professional level if you feel that you are NOT censored in any way even when you are being fairly extensively critical.

Quote from: windjc on April 15, 2014, 07:38:43 AM

Quote from: podyx on April 15, 2014, 07:37:04 AM

Should I wire an additional 4.6 grand?

What do you think??

Sure. Do it. All in. Now.

I'm sure it takes a couple of days, no?

No one really seems to know, but it looks fairly promising that we may be going up for a little while, rather than down.. but I've been saying that since $610-ish.

Quote from: Dr. LY on April 15, 2014, 08:33:08 AM

I don't have any clue wtf to do now.

I bought my first btc at around 680 because there were "cheap coins."

I bought more on the way down to 500 to "cost average"

I put almost my entire savings at 480

Then everyone said if it broke 400 we were screwed and there was NO good news from China at all so I sold at 399.

So wtf do I do now? I've lost thousands and the money hasn't hit my bank account so I can't even buy back in. Wtf do i do?

You already did the wrong thing by going all in or all out.. in my thinking.

You have to chose what to do based on your own risk profile and goals and diversification with other investments.

Even if you buy all back in now, there is no guarantee that the price is gonna continue to go up and you may lose again. I started buying at $1200 and my average buy in price is $613-ish including fees. Sure I am still in the red, and I have more fiat to buy more.. but at times I have felt very stretched.. so I am glad that the market is finally going back up... but still NO guarantees with any of this.

I would begin a more sensible strategy that works for you and that you do NOT engage in panic buying or panic selling.. your strategy may differ from mine, but you need to find the one that works for you.

Quote from: jonoiv on April 15, 2014, 08:57:56 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 15, 2014, 08:43:04 AM

Quote from: Dr. LY on April 15, 2014, 08:33:08 AM

I don't have any clue wtf to do now.

I bought my first btc at around 680 because there were "cheap coins."

I bought more on the way down to 500 to "cost average"

I put almost my entire savings at 480

Then everyone said if it broke 400 we were screwed and there was NO good news from China at all so I sold at 399.

So wtf do I do now? I've lost thousands and the money hasn't hit my bank account so I can't even buy back in. Wtf do i do?

You already did the wrong thing by going all in or all out.. in my thinking.

You have to chose what to do based on your own risk profile and goals and diversification with other investments.

Even if you buy all back in now, there is no guarantee that the price is gonna continue to go up and you may lose again. I started buying at $1200 and my average buy in price is $613-ish including fees. Sure I am still in the red, and I have more fiat to buy more.. but at times I have felt very stretched.. so I am glad that the market is finally going back up... but still NO guarantees with any of this.

I would begin a more sensible strategy that works for you and that you do NOT engage in panic buying or panic selling.. your strategy may differ from mine, but you need to find the one that works for you.

To the OP. I have never agreed with JayJuanGee on any major point. But he is correct here.

The most important lesson is patience. Patience lessons are expensive ones, but they're lessons you rarely forget. I have sold at the bottom in the past, I make mostly successful trades but have also made some serious errors.

We may need to have a virtual man hug, here... Shocked

I have made quite a few mistakes, but I try to make them within a tolerance level that is acceptable to me... for example, i may buy or sell 1 bitcoin, even though I have ability to buy or sell 10 bitcoins at that moment. It's a form of hedging my bet within my tolerance. Sometimes it pays off pretty well, and other times, I could have gotten a higher payout. Anyhow, that largely suits my style... unless I feel that I really know the variables and probabilities.

I know some other people who subscribe to an all or nothing approach and follow that. Sometimes they get very lucky, but I do NOT have psychological tolerance to follow such a method. Now, of course, there are rare situations in which all or nothing is the only reasonable choice based on the situation and the knowledge that i have about that particular decision.... and we each have to determine for ourselves which situations fit the all or nothing or the gradual approach for us.

Quote from: blatchcorn on April 15, 2014, 09:26:49 AM

The days of sub-$500 btc are over

Yeah.. these may be sentimental moments and last opportunities for buying under $500?

Quote from: Cassius on April 15, 2014, 09:34:22 AM

Quote from: Jomppe on April 15, 2014, 09:27:39 AM

If I am not mistaken, this run will take Bitcoin all the way to 6500-7000 USD (based on how it rose last bull run from 60 to around 1200).
There might be some flashcrashes on the way but the major correction will come when the price is at the range of 6500-7000 USD.
I have been buying coins and even today I made a fiat transfer to Bitstamp so fresh cash is on the way. I still have significiant cash reserves to push the coin higher if it is necessary. Right now I do not recommend to short. The odds are that the price will go pretty high. Who am I to stop BTC running even towards 10 000 USD?

That is one heck of an assumption and the thinking that lies behind every speculative bubble in history.
I'm not going to put a ceiling price on bitcoin, but I won't make assumptions like that either!

It's NOT an assumption, it is a prediction.

The prediction may have some flaws, b/c we cannot know exactly, and trend lines can be broken and variables can change that are the bases for the prediction.

Quote from: magicmexican on April 15, 2014, 09:46:38 AM

Quote from: SlipperySlope on April 15, 2014, 09:30:31 AM

Bitcoin logistic model for 1 million USD maximum price . . .

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c

Cheers man!

In my thinking, $100K would be more reasonable to project..

I understand that $1million is possible.. but to me that projection seems to be a bit too much.. given current considerations

Quote from: Cassius on April 15, 2014, 09:48:05 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 15, 2014, 09:39:29 AM

Quote from: Cassius on April 15, 2014, 09:34:22 AM

Quote from: Jomppe on April 15, 2014, 09:27:39 AM

If I am not mistaken, this run will take Bitcoin all the way to 6500-7000 USD (based on how it rose last bull run from 60 to around 1200).
There might be some flashcrashes on the way but the major correction will come when the price is at the range of 6500-7000 USD.
I have been buying coins and even today I made a fiat transfer to Bitstamp so fresh cash is on the way. I still have significiant cash reserves to push the coin higher if it is necessary. Right now I do not recommend to short. The odds are that the price will go pretty high. Who am I to stop BTC running even towards 10 000 USD?

That is one heck of an assumption and the thinking that lies behind every speculative bubble in history.
I'm not going to put a ceiling price on bitcoin, but I won't make assumptions like that either!

yeah lol.... cant trust fools to buy when it's cheap..... and you cant trust them to stop buying when it's expensive! mania knows no ceilings.

The strangest/funniest thing is the change in sentiment from just 2 days ago. It's like a bipolar switch. Bam... and it's a bull market.

Yeah.. changes in prices, and also some of my additional buying of BTC has taken me from 45% in the red to 17% in the red (on paper) in a mere 5 days.... It is almost in my vision to be in the black again.. Maybe even HODLin will accomplish getting in the black. I could attempt some trades, but that would probably make matters worse.. HODL... seems the best approach for the moment.

Quote from: rpietila on April 15, 2014, 10:09:29 AM

Tera: OK, you have your models, and I have mine. I just laughed when I accidentally found your bullish predictions from 11.Feb, and my refutation of it, of which the latter became true.

The real problem is the lack of framework, imo. To be held accountable in one's predictions, one would need to have a system in place for forecasts, timing, probabilities, buy/sell signals, and to monitor their accuracy. Just waving hands and writing unsystematized stuff in threads does not count. My adhoc query about the percentage probabilities for the remainder of 2014 was a humble attempt to get this a little more accountable.

But of course I realize that most posters don't want it, because it would reveal their badness and expose all the trolls.

That was a great idea to have such a poll with such public specifics, and only a couple of bears participated...

There were a few people who had very similar thinking to me, but most of the predictions were a bit more bullish than me... and that's o.k. I hope that they are correct b/c I would profit from that, as well, but I guess I am putting a bit less money into BTC based on my a little bit less bullish sentiment(s).

Quote from: Dr. LY on April 15, 2014, 10:25:30 AM

Quote from: TakeTheSkyRoad on April 15, 2014, 10:22:37 AM

Quote from: Dr. LY on April 15, 2014, 10:17:26 AM

Back in. I'm ready to see some rockets.

Now walk away and come back in a year or two.
The speculating over the long term is always the best way with a very volatile currency/stock.

I'm partly telling myself here since while chasing the *bottom* I missed the actual bottom and have subsequently lost all the hard-fought gains I made in the last couple of months *sigh*
Also I bought in back in December/January.... well above $700 lol

Main thing I've learned: the pain of watching it rise while out of it was far, far, far worse than watching it sink while holding.

I think if you do the math, you lose more by being out than by being in - if that makes any sense.

Quote from: Dr. LY on April 15, 2014, 10:49:46 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 15, 2014, 10:35:14 AM

Quote from: Dr. LY on April 15, 2014, 10:21:54 AM

Quote from: MikeH on April 15, 2014, 10:19:17 AM

Quote from: Dr. LY on April 15, 2014, 08:33:08 AM

Then everyone said if it broke 400 we were screwed and there was NO good news from China at all so I sold at 399.

unfortunately a lot of people lose btc by trying to gauge sentiment here before realising most posts are just random gibberish and those that post those things usually don't believe it themselves.

you've taken a hit but you'll recover, just remember to only trade with a portion of your btc (or just hold) so you can be patient and not freak out at sudden movements.

There were a lot of fancy charts and lines and people with autistic math friends Wink

I've learned my lesson.

You have not learned your lesson though. The biggest lesson is patience. and buying back here and now is not the best place to have made a trade.

And how the hell I'm ever going to guess correctly at when the "best place is?"

The whole reason I sold at 400 was to try and come back in at a lower point. All that did was waste money and energy if I really believe in a long-term hold of btc.

You may need to reflect on the matter. NONE of us can really know your situation better than you.

However, for example, it is possible that you could have taken your lumpsum that you just bought in with and to strategically decided how to invest it over the next weeks or even months.

Maybe, for example half right away, then 15% at $490 15% at $480 and 20% at $470? Of course there are other scenarios, too.. and surely it is possible that we will never see $499 again.

To figure out a strategy that will cause you NOT to act too quickly and with your whole BTC investment would likely take a little more work, but it may save you in the long run.

On the other hand, what you did may be more suitable to you, and maybe you already know that. NOW, on the other hand, if BTC prices drop back to $400 or $300, what are you going to do? you will just wait it out? or buy more? or what?

I am also somewhat anxious when n the price is dropping and I am buying.. and the value of my whole portfolio is dropping.

My personal plan is to continue to buy as the price drops. otherwise I mostly HODL.

I do some other variations, but that is usually with a small number of coins. Sometimes I win with those other coins, but frequently it is a big waste of time for me and my personality to try to trade (at least I have NOT figured out a sure technique, yet). On the other hand, I foresee that if the price shoots up (for an extended period of time) past my average buy in price, I may take some profits... that is if i think that the price is way above the likelihood that it will continue to go up.. I may wait until $1,500 before I do that? NOT sure yet, will have to see how quickly the price goes up, if at all.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 15, 2014, 02:57:16 PM

Quote from: aminorex on April 15, 2014, 12:51:28 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 15, 2014, 12:21:46 PM

You can't have winners without losers...

Only true in a zero-sum game. More generally, you can't have competition without relative losers.

Correct. My money is still sitting in my trading account, so I am only a relative loser. Considering my initial buy-in price I am still doing rather well. Trading is not a zero sum game. Both parties feel they are better off or the trade would not take place.

I agree with you here. However, you said the exact opposite a few times when you were being the cocky rendition of yourself.... I personally prefer the more reasonable version... but I am just one person... Cheesy

Quote from: fonzie on April 15, 2014, 04:23:24 PM

Goxish behavior spotted.
Pump on your favorite manipulative exchange(Gox, Huobi), dump at the same time on Stamp. Repeat.
This has been seen in the last weeks of Gox.

you must be getting close to the end of your Bitcoin bashing internship?

Quote from: magicmexican on April 15, 2014, 08:10:06 PM

You have to love all these butthurt bears in denial

hehehehehe....

I predict that they will stay in denial forever.. even when we are at $10k or above...

However, in this round, they are probably gonna keep suggesting that we are still on a downtrend.. maybe until we get to about $800.. .. which should be reasonably doable in the next few weeks...

Quote from: aminorex on April 15, 2014, 08:32:55 PM

Quote from: phatsphere on April 15, 2014, 08:12:35 PM

you are right, one aspect nevertheless: there could be a successor to bitcoin in its current form ... then it's clear that everyone will jump ship. i think, quite a few of those who have "missed" bitcoin so far think, that they'll simply wait for this new incarnation and hold back their investment.

That would be ill-advised: Bitcoin is likely to be the best or only way to get into the successor, or at the very least, the best or only way to get into it early on.

Also, cross that bridge if we get there. for the time being, bitcoin is the cadillac of crypto currencies... (It's just an expression.. well I mean back when cadillac was the shit)

Quote from: Lowryder on April 15, 2014, 09:07:29 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 12, 2014, 07:35:28 PM

Quote from: BitAddict on April 12, 2014, 07:20:07 PM

Also every day there are 3,600 new freshly mined bitcoins, and part of them are sold to pay electricity bills, try to recover money invested on the miner, investing on more mining power or present/future panickers.

That means it is needed up to $1.5 million daily deposits to maintain the price stable. (Actually less because some will hold no matter what, so you can guess something like 25%-50% of $1.5 million)

I would put it this way:

Only about $0.5 million of the daily bitcoins generation enters the market. Of that, the following are interested:

20 G20 countries
50 midsize countries
70 small countries
70 very small countries
500 billionaires
10,000 100-millionaires
1 million 10-millionaires
30 million millionaires
500 large corporations
500,000 midsize corporations
500 million Europeans with <1M net worth
300 million N. Americans -..-
300 million S. Americans -..-
200 million ex-Soviet -..-
1,700 million in Indian peninsula
1,600 million in China
1 billion in other parts of Asia
500 million more in Asia
1 million existing bitcoin investors thinking it is cheap

It is mathematically certain that everybody cannot get many bitcoins. The list above included so many entities that it is certain that some of them realize that acting before others is an advantage, like any one reading this has realized. Then they start to want the bitcoins, and as the daily interest exceeds $0.5 million, the price starts to rise.

Bitcoin will fail due to its natural scarce nature.
It WILL not work:
-as mean of transaction
-store of value

If the technology is so unique and outstanding, the scarce nature
Will ultimately destroy it.

The value will be zero.

Wake up!!!!!!!

Seems that you are the one that needs to be woken up.. b/c scarcity is essential to BTC's value.. and Bitcoin is infinitely divisible, as well (even though currently only divided into 100million subparts - Satoshis)

Quote from: keithers on April 15, 2014, 10:32:05 PM

It seems so recent that all the talk was about BTC gravitating repeatedly towards $666...we need to get back to there Shocked

I agree... and that $666 pricepoint felt low at the time... Cheesy

Quote from: niothor on April 15, 2014, 10:49:53 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on April 15, 2014, 10:33:39 PM

China appears to be sleeping so US markets are having trouble trying to rally.. lol

Let China sleep... forever

I 've had it with their news and exchanges

Niothor: I have read a lot of your comments... and mostly I agree with a lot of what you say.

Could you explain the cute bear avatar?

What is such a bull like you doing with a bear like that?

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on April 15, 2014, 11:03:20 PM

Quote from: barbs on April 15, 2014, 11:01:12 PM

Wow. This battle is epic and made me glad i dumped into that strange 514 wall? Huh

wtf was that guy thinking?

what a market.

breakout action ... do you go all in or wait for one more pullback? ... we're right on trend right now, might never see this low again is the psychological battleground.

I try to buy on the way down and sell on the way up... so as you may be able to tell, I am a little exhausted from buying for about 5 months.. .but I am NOT going to sell anytime soon.. maybe after we get into a more comfortable uptrend.... I may sell a little.

However, I agree that you are correct that we may never see this price again.. I just get a little worried to buy while the price is going up.. especially when I had bought so many BTC all the way down the downtrend.. especially starting below $610.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 15, 2014, 11:17:34 PM

Quote from: EuroTrash on April 15, 2014, 11:04:12 PM

Quote from: spiderbrain on April 15, 2014, 10:51:34 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 15, 2014, 10:33:02 PM

The volume of this pump is very similar to March 3. The difference is that it is spread over two days instead of one. I won't trust this as a true recovery unless there is a successful retest of $340 support on higher volume. Every dollar spent on the exchange is a dollar not used to put a floor on the price in the event of another stampede for the exits.

You kids run and play. I guess it falls to me to be the responsible adult in the room. A roll I am unused to. Hopefully I will not be needed.

fine words, sir.

I disagree. The pump of March 3 was one single player with a few millions. This one is a lot of tiny little buys on Chinese markets that keep on pressing from the bottom up, inspiring confidence in the western markets and causing the leveraged shorts to explode in a fireworks show.

Is this concerted? I don't think so. I think we simply have a new massive herd of Chinese gamblers who are entering the speculation game by buying bitcoins and altcoins.

You said yourself we are all China's bitch. Here's something that just popped into my head:

Whacky conspiracy theory:

Price is being manipulated by the PBoC to accumulate a large position for the purpose of adding it to it's gold and foreign currency reserves. The ultimate goal is to make the renminbi a major world currency, possibly the world's reserve currency.

evidence for said whacky theory:

1. stochastics are funny.

2. Public airing of pro-bitcoin feature on public television followed by outright hostile words and policy, followed by...uncertainty"

evidence against said whacky theory:

1. That's the beauty of conspiracy theories. The lack of evidence merely shows you how deep it goes!

discuss.

I generally agree with that particular conspiracy theory as a chinese aspiration.. does NOT mean that they will achieve it, but are taking measures to solidify holdings in various assets, including PMs and BTC... b/c they view the dollar as a bad investment.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 16, 2014, 01:22:57 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 16, 2014, 12:12:42 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 15, 2014, 02:57:16 PM

Quote from: aminorex on April 15, 2014, 12:51:28 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 15, 2014, 12:21:46 PM

You can't have winners without losers...

Only true in a zero-sum game. More generally, you can't have competition without relative losers.

Correct. My money is still sitting in my trading account, so I am only a relative loser. Considering my initial buy-in price I am still doing rather well. Trading is not a zero sum game. Both parties feel they are better off or the trade would not take place.

I agree with you here. However, you said the exact opposite a few times when you were being the cocky rendition of yourself.... I personally prefer the more reasonable version... but I am just one person... Cheesy

It only appears I said the exact opposite. The confusion is understandable. Currency speculating is a zero sum game. One trader thinks the price will go up, one thinks the price will go down, and the person who wins gains the exact amount the other trader loses (minus trading fee). Trading in general is positive sum because we traders have different end goals. I specifically said I was hedging and that due to my cold storage coins I am in a net long position even though I sold my trading stash to lock in profits. The benefit for me is that I can endure the swings of the market for far longer now without relying on day trading profits. The benefit for the other trader is obvious, unless the market goes lower than his buy-in price and he sells then.

I stick with my earlier post...

Nonetheless, I agree with you about trading bringing value to both parties - even though some traders will lock in losses when they buy high and sell low.. However, when the market is going up, then most people should profit... It is more difficult to lose money when the market is going up.. as long as the investor has patience.

Quote from: windjc on April 16, 2014, 04:17:40 AM

Quote from: TeeBone on April 16, 2014, 04:14:01 AM

Wow, what a day. All my shorts up to 520 filled, but i cant say im feeling comfy.
Still hard to believe that this is it, the turnaround we've been waiting for on such anemic volume. I'll take a hit at around 600 and rebuy.

Exactly the way I feel. My last short position failed to fill at 527, even though that was exactly the high. That last runup on Houbi to the resistance line was on very very low volume compared the other runups.

Maybe we have more in the tank. Maybe we go to the exponential trendline. But this doesn't feel like a bottom to me. This feels like a bunch of traders riding the wave on an appearance of a bottom.

I don't think we just break down to new intermediate lows (340) and then recover on low volume. I'm betting I make a profit on this trade. If not and it goes to 600+ then I'll just take the hit.

Maybe by Thursday, we will be $620?

Quote from: mmitech on April 16, 2014, 06:41:22 AM

Quote from: EuroTrash on April 16, 2014, 06:36:09 AM

Quote from: seleme on April 16, 2014, 06:29:23 AM

I made so many bad decisions today it's not even funny. I can't fucking believe that I managed to lose some money on this drop to 340 and rise up instead of making a killing.

I'm in the same club. I took my principal away long time ago, but still! Almost half of my gains in coins since December have been wiped.

told you guys this is not safe to trade, we will be going up on waves till the end of this month then the price will be somehow stable for some time (couple of weeks).

and good morning

Stable $750 to $850 .. .would be good.. but I think that we have to stay between $600 and $700 for a little while before going to the next level.. my current thinking....

Quote from: mmitech on April 16, 2014, 08:52:14 AM

where is Adam BTW ? I didn't seem him around for days now.

I've been thinking the same.

Where is the OP?

Quote from: ShroomsKit_Disgrace on April 16, 2014, 09:00:00 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 16, 2014, 08:57:31 AM

Quote from: mmitech on April 16, 2014, 08:52:14 AM

where is Adam BTW ? I didn't seem him around for days now.

I've been thinking the same.

Where is the OP?

He told us he was going to be frozen or cryogenized, and post a pic of a penguin inside a ice-cube. Cheesy

You can find that post, like 3days ago, during the 350$ dip.

Hopefully that works out o.k. for him, and he does NOT come back all retarded... I dont really trust cryogenics

Quote from: fonzie on April 16, 2014, 08:25:23 PM

Bye bye, my time in here is done. PBOC and J.P. Morgan finally paid the rest of the agreed salary. See you all after the top of the next bubble. Kiss

Will you be using the same user name or a different one (when you come back, that is)?

Quote from: p0peji on April 17, 2014, 12:28:48 AM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 17, 2014, 12:25:23 AM

Quote from: Patel on April 16, 2014, 11:01:16 PM

I think we can all agree, things will only get better from here.

LOL.. for a minute their I thought you were serious. You're right though, it's looking so bearish it's frightening.

Bearish? I think the market is pretty bullish atm, could you elaborate on why it is bearish atm?

Yeah... we may NOT see $400s again... looks like BTC could be revving up for a take off - just a matter about how long it is going to take before it begins to edge up on a more permanent basis... and maybe even float into the $750-$850 range.

that would be bullish

Quote from: chessnut on April 17, 2014, 03:52:16 AM

an equally good question, how many bitcoins are left on the exchanges?

large players that are accumulating off exchanges due to broken trust could be holding a lot of coins right now. there may be a surprise shortage for short bears.

Personally, I believe the question of quantity of fiat on the exchanges is more important than the question of the quantity of bitcoin on the exchanges.

One of the advantages of bitcoin (its ease of ability to be moved without cost and quickly) is also its curse in terms of artificially pushing prices downward. In this regard, bitcoins can easily be moved onto exchanges within hours notice... or even less than an hour sometimes.

Even if these large carriers of bitcoin are able to acquire their bitcoin off of exchanges, it may take a little while for those off exchange bitcoin acquisitions to hit the exchanges (maybe hitting the exchanges more as trickles rather than surges). Any attempts to buy thousands of bitcoins on exchanges is NOT going to go unnoticed, except during high volume periods - unless the purchases are split up into fairly small quantities.

From my understanding we do NOT really seem to know the quantity of fiat on exchanges in the sidelines, and we realize that there is a bit of a disincentive in keeping very much fiat on the exchanges (post mt gx and other negative exchange rumors)

Quote from: magicmexican on April 17, 2014, 12:06:24 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 17, 2014, 11:58:58 AM

three times rejected from critical support.

No way it will hold, 6h looking bad, 2900 will be tested most likely

I will save some fiat, if that 2900 happens... but I am NOT selling at this point.

Quote from: Hen0xyd on April 17, 2014, 02:42:27 PM

Adam (are you still here Cheesy

?), if you don't got ideas for a new poll I suggest something like that :

"How many time bitcoin will be banned in China ?" answers may be 4, 5, 6, 7 and so on.
You could also formulate it as "How many times China's deadline will be pushed ?" since it's funny how "dead-line" is antinomic in this sentence Cheesy

Note : I may have lost the count so I'm not sure about the '4' answer !

I speculate that Adam has abandoned this thread until either 4/19 or 4/20 - coincidentally at the end of the poll. Tongue

Quote from: solex on April 17, 2014, 09:56:01 PM

Quote from: TERA on April 17, 2014, 07:20:47 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on April 17, 2014, 02:49:13 PM

Bid/Ask sums on stamp becoming very bearish again after a short peak.

Im guessing if we dont see $550 soon we go back down. (Still HODLING since $390)

The orderbooks are so thin that it doesn't take much to do this at all. Subtract 2K from the buy side and add 3K to the sell side. Remember mtgox with the 200KBTC orderbooks where these types of amounts of btc were just irrelevant noise?

You are so right about the importance of volume but I am just not sure that MtGox is a valid benchmark anymore. Peter's theory that they lost most of their coins in the 2011 hack would imply that a lot of their 2012/2013 orderbook depth was, shall we say, "inflated".

Inflated only b/c the vast majority of users did NOT know that the BTC was NOT there... Probably, the fact that the BTC was NOT there was only known by a few in management. Accordingly, the behavior of the users would have been the same as if the BTC was there the user's behavior at GOX was mostly affected by Gox restrictions that were placed upon their withdrawals which likely inspired quite a bit less of less confidence in GOX... but the ones that stayed on GOX continued to engage in trading that would have been more or less normal within that concept of believing that the coins were the real deal..

Quote from: windjc on April 17, 2014, 09:58:01 PM

Whys is no one mentioning the obvious bear flag on Houbi. Its literally waving at us.

My prediction for today: Houbi goes up to 3200 and everyone on this forum shouts "MOON MF!!!!!".

Then it drops back down to 2980.

I'm feeling pretty good about this one.

Since you are feeling pretty good about it, we can quote you... he he he ..

I am NOT selling.. HODL for me.. but I may buy if the later part of your prediction comes true (otherwise I am kind of bought out at this price range)

Quote from: aminorex on April 17, 2014, 10:00:46 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 17, 2014, 09:33:04 PM

I foresee a race to the bottom where most countries try to debase, debauch and devalue their own currency faster than other countries until somebody cracks. What i am saying is that China shows signs of cracking. Japan has already begun the process of cracking, because they have a 30 year head start in the process.

Since 2008 *everyone* has been devaluing their currency. But its not competitive devaluation, it's co-operative devaluation, an open conspiracy of central banks. By co-ordination they avoid excessive relative slippage, which avoids most of the political problems with inflating away debt -- the rest are solved by simply funneling money to the principal debtors. The ECB, because of its nominal mandate, has a really hard time monetizing debt on its own, but it can accomplish this through the back door by coordinated easing. I don't know what is the quid pro quo they are giving to the U.S., but I'm sure the tab will come due sooner or later. This kinda, sorta works as long as all the majors are co-operating. It has been brutal for emerging markets, and it may fall apart if one of the majors defects badly, but it does kick the can another lap down the road.

Yeah.. I never thought about it like that... the reason no one of these big countries get in trouble is that they are doing this together.. and the people of each and all of the countries are screwed and the small countries are screwed even more. So even if we can buy a bitcoin for $10K, the $10K is not going to be worth too much (if they are doubling the supply of $$ every several years). This all seems to justify that BTC may go up even higher and faster.... I sure hope so b/c floating around at $500 is NOT so exciting.. even though it is better than floating at $420 or $350, which was the case last week.

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 11:59:36 PM

Quote from: Adrian-x on April 17, 2014, 11:51:58 PM

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 11:47:07 PM

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating Wink

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.

yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.

7970 is a kind of mining rig, correct? If so, did it pay for itself, and for how long were you able to use it? Did you have to retire it? Were you able to sell it to recoup some money, too?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 12:23:00 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 17, 2014, 10:36:05 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 17, 2014, 10:24:32 PM

floating around at $500 is NOT so exciting

Here's the fundamental basis for the rising value of bitcoin: Active wallets Value follows roughly as the square of this figure. It doesn't move fast enough to be exciting. What does happen, though, is that price deviates from its fundamentals relatively rapidly. That's when you adjust your long-term core position, according as price is a fraction or a multiple of value. It's not daytrading, but as a slow and stately strategy it is very lucrative.

But there does not seem to be a positive correlation between that number and the price, since December:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0

In fact, from Dec/01 to Feb/28, the correlation seems to be strongly negative - when one increases, the other decreases.

By the way, why would that number N(T) decrease? Does it exclude addresses that are were used before time T but are empty at time T?

Fuck..... You know Aminorex was talking about long term, and then you, Jorge, are talking about from December 2013 to February 2014... You could even selectively pick any time between December 2013 and present and find various anomalies.

This is a repeated SPIN theme with you to selectively pick from December 2013 (the top of the price) in order to supposedly illustrate some higher point. That is hardly academic, random or objective... YOUR working with the "facts", in fact, ridiculous and misleading for you to attempt to make your point(s) about the supposed downfall of bitcoin by selectively choosing your comparison reference points.

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 18, 2014, 12:55:32 AM

Quote from: strawbs on April 18, 2014, 12:45:01 AM

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 11:04:29 PM

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

..

..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

From what little I know, it is almost NEVER a good thing to be desperate or in a hurry when making any kind of investment, whether long or short-term..

However, I am sure that it works for the rare lucky individual(s)... but it is NOT really a reliable and/or repeatable style....

And, even if that whimsical method is your style, you ultimately, need to be lucky in your picks... with volatile assets, and alts seem to be much more volatile than bitcoin... well in any event, it seems that you need to do your own homework b/c chances are also pretty slim that anyone on a quasi-public forum is going to give you reliable information..... .though you are likely looking for leads in which you can get in on the ground floor for a quick buck...

Quote from: silverfuture on April 18, 2014, 01:03:56 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 18, 2014, 12:58:27 AM

Quote from: strawbs on April 18, 2014, 12:45:01 AM

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 11:04:29 PM

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I think that's pretty sound advice Cheesy

seriously though.

confirmed

Double confirmed. Although, I frequently find it quite hilarious to read any post that "advises" NOT to take "any advice" from this forum. Cheesy

Quote from: Newfeeling on April 18, 2014, 01:15:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 01:08:30 AM

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 11:59:36 PM

Quote from: Adrian-x on April 17, 2014, 11:51:58 PM

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 11:47:07 PM

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating Wink

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.

yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.

7970 is a kind of mining rig, correct? If so, did it pay for itself, and for how long were you able to use it? Did you have to retire it? Were you able to sell it to recoup some money, too?

It's a kind of graphics card that's used in a rig. I can't speak for mining profitability of bitcoin during that timeframe, but if he mined and held litecoins with his 7970's he would have made a killing.

Thanks... Yes, the devil is in the details.. it is not the size of the boat, its the motion of the ocean.. or whatever other factors concerning how the 7970s were used and then whether the proceeds were spent right away or saved.... Shmadz does NOT strike me as the saving type, but possibly he is?

Quote from: gentlemand on April 18, 2014, 01:25:32 AM

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 18, 2014, 12:55:32 AM

Quote from: strawbs on April 18, 2014, 12:45:01 AM

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 11:04:29 PM

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

..

..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

That's pretty hard won advice from people who've been there and done that.

I'm sure we'd all love to be turning debts to dust within days. Perhaps a few on here can do it. The majority will soon end up on the wrong side of a trade and get deeper in the hole.

And your backup plan is to have half your worth in low priced alts? You may well score big on one but that's a massive amount of exposure for markets that are usually piddling and easily milked to death.

There are so many alts to chose from.

Each person has to chose their own comfort level in how diversified to be. My portfolio is less than 10% in Crypto - however, if the price goes up, then I am going to allow my percentage to increase to 30 or 40% of my total investment(s). I will reassess, my comfort level, ; however, Part of the reason that I invested in bitcoin was to diversify out of the dollar (b/c my other investments are largely, to my knowledge, tied to the success or failure of the dollar).

From the crypto portion of my investments - less than 5% of that is invested into alts, and since there are so many alts... I am considering largely abandoning them (actually I am invested in small amounts of the 7 alts that are listed through BTC e).

Personally, I would suggest having an investment portfolio in your comfort zone... and to be sufficiently diversified so that you do NOT become desperate or overly stressed if one or more of your investments crash to zero or near zero in value.

Quote from: Mk2vr6 on April 18, 2014, 01:43:25 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 18, 2014, 01:27:30 AM

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 18, 2014, 12:55:32 AM

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

..

..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low. Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5. People investing now will need to work to make money, although there's a lot of fish in this pond relative to other markets, so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.

I've found the best time to buy is when everyone else is crying that the price is never going to recover, and every rise is met with cynicism and "bull trap!" The best time to sell is when every drop is met with "bear trap!" and equal amounts of cynicism in the other direction. The first means everyone is out and hoping the price will drop, the second means everyone is in and hoping the price will rise. When there's a mix, that's too risky for me. I don't like making quick trades, I just go for the big ones. I start my buying when the price is getting obliterated, and sell on the way up. The speed at which I sell depends on whether I think we're in a downtrend or uptrend. Uptrends I tend to let it go more, downtrends I try to get out quickly and be more conservative.

And don't ever short bitcoin, and never use leverage. You don't sound like you can afford to do either. There are even some people who are seemingly bears all the time who think shorting is dumb, probably from getting banged hard for doing so at some point.

Learn TA. There are people who hate on it, but I disagree. Spend your time learning how to read charts, and always take your own path. Do not buy or sell simply because someone that seems respectable tells you to. You're probably not skilled enough to be a good judge of who to trust. You can use the posts of others as confirmation of something you're already feeling strongly about, but don't take anybody's word for it without putting in the time educating yourself before you take a position.

If you want to day trade, you've got to educate yourself, and learn to control your emotions. If you don't do that before you start getting into the thick of it, you will almost certainly get destroyed if you don't luck out. Don't rely on luck, luck is for lottery players. Put in the work, and you might just be able to reap the rewards.

Killer post.

Should be made a sticky in the Newbies section.

I agree. That is one piece of sound advice, artfully expressed.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 02:14:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 01:14:45 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 12:23:00 AM

But there does not seem to be a positive correlation between [ the number of active wallets ] and the price, since December:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0

In fact, from Dec/01 to Feb/28, the correlation seems to be strongly negative - when one increases, the other decreases.

Aminorex was talking about long term, and then you are talking about from December 2013 to February 2014... You could even selectively pick any time between December 2013 and present and find various anomalies.

If the number of active wallets N(T) was connected to the price P(T), in four months during which P(T) varied up and down several times, by 40% or more, we would expect to see at least some corresponding variation in N(T). I don't see that.

If we are supposed to look only at the long term (3 years) and ignore any deviations spanning 4 months or more, then the statement is not convincing because we get two steadily exponentially quantities, so that any other exponentially increasing quantity -- such as the increasing quantity of CO2 in the air -- would "explain" the increase inP(T) just as well as N(T).

I agree with you that there can be a large number of variables, and some of the variables are 1) clearly and unambiguously connected, 2) likely connected, 3) likely not connected and 4) clearly NOT connected.

The mere fact that you may have NOT have seen any scintilla of evidence of a connection during your selected period of time, does NOT mean that the logical conclusion is that N(T) and P(T) are clearly NOT connected. The explanation can be that there are larger overriding forces at play during that period of time that are interfering with the connection with N(T) and P(T).

Great attempt to send this topic out on a wild goose chase, but neither of us have provided data to rebutt a claim of a connection or NOT; however, the claim sure as hell makes sense to me that if you get an increased number of users of bitcoin, then the price is likely going to go up with the increased number of users. Even though wallets are NOT a direct measurement of users, it is a good enough approximation of there being an increase in the number of users... which will likely have a direct correlating positive effect on BTC prices (at least that seems to be the theory that Aminorex was postulating).

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 02:14:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 01:14:45 AM

selectively pick from December 2013 (the top of the price)

I don't know why some Americans are worried about the American economy; if one looks at the last 600 years, ignoring small variations, it has been a tremendous growth. Wink

Again, you seem to be striving to take this on some wild goose chase by making some extreme example.... However, your extreme example seems to work against you and to support my argument about what you are doing by your time selectivity.

Let me see if I can use the same example to help to clarify the point.

You are correct that if we compare the USA economy over 600 years to the last 6 months in order to make some kind of a point, then that point is going to be lost b/c a lot has gone on in 600 years that may or may NOT be helpful.

I am merely telling you that it is NOT a good idea to continue to begin from the top of the bubble to make your repetitive points. I think that you are doing it on purpose in order to communicate about jibberish... and maybe I should NOT be entertaining you (or as they say feeding the trolls). Certainly, you seem smart enough to know better and to pick some more meaningful time period, instead of trying to exaggerate to the max... when you exaggerate to the max, then you lose any sense of credibility or objectivity in my reading.. and you are also distracting and confusing others who may NOT realize the extent of your selectivity in making your supposedly academic points. I have NO idea about whether you are really a professor, like you claim to be, yet certainly, you seem to be doing much disservice to academics by projecting yourself as such in the bitcoin sphere... you frequently take the posters in this thread away from actual facts with your skewed and seemingly disingenuous spins that are subtle enough to sometimes miss b/c frequently, your presentations are packaged with a decent and comprehensive organization.. with good English...

I would imagine if you really are a professor in Brazil, then you teach in portuguese, not in english.. so how come your english is so good?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 02:14:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 01:14:45 AM

Fuck..... You know [ ... ], Jorge, [... ] This is a repeated SPIN theme with you to [ ... ] That is hardly academic, random or objective... YOUR working with the "facts", in fact, ridiculous and misleading for you to attempt to make your point(s) about the supposed downfall of bitcoin by selectively choosing your comparison reference points.

It is a pity that my Exemplary Lesson got punctured, you would definitely need to get it now.

Look, I understand that you are frustrated by this irrelevant price oscillation that has been going on since December. But it is not my fault, is it? You must have done something to deserve such punishment from the Bitcoin Goddess. Did you perchance tread into her temple with dirty shoes? Break a sacred jade mirror? Kill an albatross? Offend an old teacher?

First of all.. why did you edit out some of the text of my earlier post?

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Third: You are correct that I am frustrated by the ongoing downtrend in BTC prices since December, but my frustration about BTC prices downtrending is NOT a motivation for me to comment upon your post(s). Overall, I feel pretty comfortable that my investment strategy is going to pay off fairly lucratively - even though I am putting more time into monitoring and tweaking my investment plan b/c of the various aspects of the BTC price performance since December 2013. You know that in the end, my time will likely pay off pretty well too.. b/c I have accumulated way more bitcoins than I had expected that I would be able to accumulate... ... anyhow, time will tell about my bitcoin investment, and I am NOT too worried yet.. even though I remain a bit frustrated.. as you mentioned.

The rest of your content here.. is merely humor that is seemly directed at my expense. I did find it quite a bit funny, even though irrelevant, and NOT really applicable to me, but still fairly artfully presented... so yes, made me chuckle a little bit at getting some misdirected attention. Cheesy

Quote from: shmadz on April 18, 2014, 02:17:23 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 01:08:30 AM

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 11:59:36 PM

Quote from: Adrian-x on April 17, 2014, 11:51:58 PM

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 11:47:07 PM

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating Wink

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.

yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.

7970 is a kind of mining rig, correct? No, it's a video card. If so, did it pay for itself, yes. and for how long were you able to use it? I'm still using it, but not for mining anymore, it still kicks some serious ass when it comes to video games though. Did you have to retire it? no. Were you able to sell it to recoup some money, too? I will never sell this thing! It will be put in a museum some day!

My answers in RED Grin

Thanks... for your responses.

I agree that you get even a bigger bonus out of your purchase of the item (the 7970) if you are able to multi-purpose it.

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 18, 2014, 02:39:28 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 18, 2014, 01:27:30 AM

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 18, 2014, 12:55:32 AM

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

..

..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

[..]

Hmmm

And how well I know, about them. Their posting, and trading/thought patterns, are predictable, at this point.

..What I haven't revealed so far is that I've read this thread almost exclusively, 15-30hrs a week on average, since Jan 11th this year. I literally read every page (good bit of skimming at times, admittedly - no other way, if going through that much..) since back when we were at the 3900's of posts & Arcas, Empowering, Luno, 'Doc' Holliday (I miss his wry humor..) & Goat/Loaded were still seen posting in here.

I just made the acct not because I just 'discovered' trading or crypto/etc, but because I simply don't like to waste people's time w/ yet more repetitive dribble, there's already 6k of it in here ffs.. lol. If I'm gonna post, I want it to have some effort put into, so there's a small chance at least 1 person might find it of any value, instead of moar spam. So.. that effort? THAT is why I waited that long to make this acct. I procrastinated. The Activity:5 is a lie.. xD

But, I love this place. I truly appreciate it, esp. TER, BJA, Keyser, Adam, Amino, Blitz & even Jorge & Fonzie's trollishness. And I did learn some tricks from it. Nevertheless, I find myself rolling my eyes knowingly, with a faint smirk, to all these ignorant grand proclamations of 'sUingle d1gitz dAwq' '$9.99' & '7-50k within 2014' from the same amused cognizance that all you veterans experience ;p I just did it as a 'Guest', until yesterday.

As for BTC itself, I didn't know it existed until Sept '13. In Oct. I knew about prices weekly. By Nov., I knew about them twice a day. In early Nov. I bought my very first BTC. In very late Nov., after some epiphany of curiosity & googling, & came upon Cryptsy. I sent them .01 only, thinking they may easily be a scam. After couple test trades & withdrawals went through fine, only then did I send moar in.

I missed the wave. Could've been a thousandnaire like you guys by now had I got in most of these small-time alts back in Oct-to-Mid-Late-Nov at the latest. But by the time I was familiar w/ it all, it was too late. Nov 18 Congress 'endorsement' & all the crazy Cryptsy/alt price explosions had mostly taken place already, it was dumping time, and I indeed lost a good portion of the equity I had been lucky enough to make.

Quote from: octaft on April 18, 2014, 01:27:30 AM

[..]

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low.

I do panic-buy, and short, and sell. Too much in fact. But I've done too little before, too. A balance is crucial. Here's an example : The last time Stamp was around 533-537, that was a great time to get out. I didn't. I knew I should've, but held. The 540's high was not able to be reached again. It had to not only reach it, but BREAK thru it in order to be safely confident about a greater high, the new bull minitrend continuing, etc. It didn't even have the fuel to reach it. Obviously Huobi & Co are desperate to not correct further, and keep going up, but it's just not happening. The correction has to occur, and at least a moderate bit farther than merely 3020/481.

I do over-invest, it's easier to be on the safer side of trading when one has more capital to play with. But that will come in due time. A good thing about smaller sums is that, well, if you do get wiped out, you can find the same small sum to invest again within a month or a quarter's wages. I've done it before, sadly, and it's far from people here's mortgages money & life savings etc Undecided

Too desperate and you lose. Too complacent/long-term and you lose too. I've lost since 2005. (stocks & FX, not crypto....) Some years w/o any trading, some w/ holding on to bad practices, 'holding on' for 'long-term' in various ways. Balance is key, speaking from experience.

Quote from: octaft on April 18, 2014, 01:27:30 AM

[..] Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5.

No question. Too bad I was doing FX & not crypto, back in '11-'12 & most of '13.

Quote from: octaft on April 18, 2014, 01:27:30 AM

[..] ..so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.

Claiming to glean anything of insight on 7 posts made over ~24 hrs is like trying to predict the price trend over the next few weeks by looking only at the 1-minute chart on 'Wisdom Kiss

..So! Thanks for your attempt, it was actually very entertaining ;p Seriously, no offense taken, you could've have truly known I was that far from a newbie. I appreciate the intention to help, I trust it is genuine. And what you said is absolutely good advice ..which I already knew. Just have hard time applying the knowledge. Discipline, & capital.

You may want to consider a form of dollar cost averaging. That's what i do. You can tailor the dollar cost averaging to your budget.

I had a similar situation to yours, in that I started with my research into bitcoin in November 2013, yet I had $30k that I could invest into bitcoin. Accordingly, I decided to spread that $30k over 6 months, b/c I knew that BTC had just had a pretty large bullrun (at the end of November 2013).

Anyhow, my point is that you could budget as little as $50 a month for your investment, and it will add up over time. Then you could invest daily, weekly, monthly or whatever increment is comfortable for you. In the beginning you may want to front load a little bit. So let's say you have $2,000 and then thereafter $50 per month. You determine your strategy, but you may say that you want to invest the whole $2000 right away (which I would NOT do, but to each his own), or you may say that you would strategically invest $500 for each of the first two weeks, and then you would invest $250 per week for each of the four weeks after that and then go to your $50 per month plan... or you could figure out something more active. I did daily purchases for my first three weeks or something like that.

Surely, you seem more eager than planning out a strategy, but once you figure out the variety of your expenses, then you should NOT feel compelled to leverage (or borrow money) in order to invest. Leveraging is more of an advance player's move who is really familiar and confident in his/her ability to make the money back b/c of experience in having had done it repeated times and having a back up position in case the leverage does NOT pay off.

Anyhow, my point is once you build up various systems of investing, then you build up a nest egg.. and maybe one or two or five years down the road, you can transfer that nest egg into something that is really ground floor and where you have built up your capital (that is how I had gotten my $30k that i had available to invest into btc in the end of 2013 and that was NOT my total available money, only the money that I had consciously allocated for crypto investing).

Quote from: shmadz on April 18, 2014, 02:42:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 01:42:10 AM

<snip>
Shmadz does NOT strike me as the saving type, but possibly he is?

nope. you got me pegged, definitely NOT the saving type Wink

I mined a bunch of different coins, and have almost none left. Luckily, if things go the way I hope they are gonna go, then "almost none" will be "just enough".

I am glad you did NOT take my comment personally, b/c I did NOT mean it to be in any kind of judgmental way. I already understand that people have a variety of personalities and some styles will NOT easily fit some people. Accordingly, each of us looks for, and hopefully finds the style(s) that works for him/her.

Personally, I would go crazy, if I were to employ a form of balls to the walls type investing. I prefer incremental investments and continuous readjustments. Though I am sure over the years my style has evolved somewhat. Nonetheless, I have always been somewhat of a saver... yet I have quite a few friends who are NOT of that personality type.

Actually, probably the majority of people have pretty loose savings plans (whether rich or poor), and certainly, the ones with the larger paychecks can get away with more screw ups... but even well to do people can get into a pickle if they overextend themselves into consuming way more than what is within their incomes.

Quote from: octaft on April 18, 2014, 03:14:29 AM

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 18, 2014, 02:39:28 AM

*snip*

Claiming to glean anything of insight on 7 posts made over ~24 hrs is like trying to predict the price trend over the next few weeks by looking only at the 1-minute chart on 'Wisdom Kiss

..So! Thanks for your attempt, it was actually very entertaining ;p Seriously, no offense taken, you could've have truly known I was that far from a newbie. I appreciate the intention to help, I trust it is genuine. And what you said is absolutely good advice ..which I already knew. Just have hard time applying the knowledge. Discipline, & capital.

Ah, slowrolled by a lurker! I respect your approach, actually. I did the same thing as you, read for months and months before I even created an account.

You're 100% correct that I don't know you, which is why I never spoke in certainties. I just went on the information you gave us in your posts, which was relatively quite a bit for only 7 posts, you've got to admit. It was enough for me to be comfortable with the assumptions I made even though they turned out to be somewhat incorrect. When the risk is not great, and here it was not, I'm fine working with limited information.

If my post does not help you, I'm pretty sure it will help someone. If you feel you've got the knowledge, who am I to argue? Now you've got to apply it. But based on the last portion of your response, you knew that already.

You are hilarious.. especially when I agree with you. You have been less "hilarious" when we disagreed.. he he he.. whatever... Cheesy

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 04:21:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 02:48:26 AM

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... Grin

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message. If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why. If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was. In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

Well, I will report. I am NOT sure if I get it. It appears to be an outside link to a PNG, but I do NOT click on outside links... especially if someone on a quasi-anonymous thread is threatening to give me a lesson that may cause me to disappear from the forum after I am accumulated over 1,100 posts.

So, anyhow, I am NOT sure about whether I got the meaning of the Exemplary lesson, b/c I could NOT tell what it is, exactly. Sorry about that b/c I did intend to cooperate to the extent that cooperation was within my reasonable abilities, and I was hoping that the lesson was NOT going to be anything too bad.. or voodoo or anything like that.

Seems like I have been threatened a few times in this quasi-anonymous forum.. funny that is... i mean strange that is.

Quote from: hdbuck on April 18, 2014, 04:50:07 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 04:21:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 02:48:26 AM

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... Grin

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message. If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why. If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was. In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

I think HDBuck is ignoring me, but YES, it does seem pretty immature for a supposed professor to be engaging in communications that seem like veiled threats.

Quote from: silverfuture on April 18, 2014, 05:05:11 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 04:54:20 AM

Quote from: hdbuck on April 18, 2014, 04:50:07 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 04:21:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 02:48:26 AM

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... Grin

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message. If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why. If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was. In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

I think HDBuck is ignoring me, but YES, it does seem pretty immature for a supposed professor to be engaging in communications that seem like veiled threats.

"Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success" Yet almost exclusively posts in the wall observer thread. Seems legit. Why even bother talking to this person? I have yet to glean one useful bit of information from even one of his posts.

You may be correct - that engaging with him is a big waste of time.

I have been having a few battles with him regarding the contents of his posts, yet there were a few posts of his that caused me to consider matters a little bit differently (in other words I got some value out of them). And, also, I had thought that it may be helpful to point out the deceptive aspects of the content of some of his posts, but that may be a big waste of time, too.

My dilemma is that I hate for some obvious misleading to go unchecked - even though it seems about half the posts in this thread are trolls or trollish in nature.

Quote from: KeyserSoze on April 18, 2014, 05:31:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 04:52:01 AM

It appears to be an outside link to a PNG, but I do NOT click on outside links...

Sounds like he wants to learn your IP, which I think others have been banned for PMing similar.

I just don't like to click on links.... but sometimes the links are in the public forum.. so if there are links in the public threads, then sometimes I will click on those links if they seem like they may be relevant to the topic that is being discussed.

Also, Jorge ended up sending me the PNG within a second PM.. without the link... so I am NOT sure.

Personally, I actually think that this forum is way too liberal with trolls, and whether various kinds of conduct is worthy of banning, I do NOT know very much about that.... b/c sometimes members get pretty outrageous in their posts. Surely, I like to swear sometimes, but mostly just to emphasize a point.. not usually directed at anybody... but every once in a while, I will get irritated by someone and say something derogatory..

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 18, 2014, 05:59:21 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 04:21:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 02:48:26 AM

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... Grin

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message. If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why. If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was. In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

LMAO!!!!!! Ohh I just had a grand realization - that notorious 'Final Lesson' Jorge has been warning us about in ominous terms since months now must be a candid pic of his decrepifying behind scantily clad in a hula skirt while doing a literal round of the 'spinning' he'd always been accused of doing here - a sight sure to indeed leave even most internet-hardened veterans scarred for life Grin

Prof., you must show mercy ahahaa

What i received was kind of like that...

It seems that you, post comic, are going to have to engage Jorge sufficiently, in order to become a lucky recipient (if you want to call it luck).

I found it to just be a continuation of the same thing that I had been accusing him.. non-responsive to my concerns about his intentionally spreading misinformation here. Probably, we should NOT be calling him professor b/c that gives way too much credence to him and many of his non-sense posts...

I will concede that sometimes there may be some good information contained in his posts, but frequently there is a hell-of-a-lot of misinformation or poorly spun information contained therein.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 18, 2014, 08:06:25 AM

I know a lot of readers and traders are sick of talking about China, and that is understandable, but the simple fact is they are relevant until they are not.

Further research into the macroeconomy of the PRoC indicates that key officials actually do understand the inherent dangers of rampant credit growth and misdirected capital (what we Austrian economists call "malinvestment"). They appear to be attempting a "soft landing", meaning they are actually tightening credit in order to attempt to control the economic contraction that everybody sees coming. They are probably not going to tighten enough, because the danger of a catastrophic crash is too great if they over do it, but that is by no means certain. These are smart people faced with the impossible task of figuring out just how much liquidity the market needs.

How ironic that even here in Bitcoin, investment strategy is still so heavily dependent on front-running policy decisions by central banks.

What this means for Bitcoin is that there is unlikely to be much growth in China of new users, at least not enough to matter much in the next few months. That does not mean that existing investors and speculators won't increase their bitcoin purchases if they are able to, and conditions seem to warrant. There also remains a non-zero probability of a major Chinese liquidity event, such as the closure of a large exchange, even more hostile policy, policy interpretation or enforcement from thePBoC or the State.

I though that some exchanges already talked about moving out of china... like to hong kong ? or was that just rumors? and really moving would NOT necessarily solve the china issue for customers in china.. .. just would allow the exchange to keep operating from its new location.

Quote from: windjc on April 18, 2014, 09:53:05 AM

Quote from: Guinpen on April 18, 2014, 09:49:55 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 18, 2014, 09:45:21 AM

You ignore the chart indicators because of your belief, and then complain later and ask why you are losing.

I ignore the chart indicators, because I still don't know how to read chart indicators. I'm still learning, so I follow this forum for advice, and then follow the forum's advice not to follow any advice I find on this forum.

I have no idea whether I should be shorting right now and buying back lower. Last time I panic sold, I lost 1/8 of my investment.

No one can "read" the chart indicators correctly all the time because there are too many of them and they more often than not conflict. TERA, who admittedly does not do well unless there is a raging bull cycle, is telling people to do more of what he does. Not sure why.

At any rate, a good understanding of both technicals and fundamentals, a willingness to study the market behavior, and a good instinct is what you should aim for.

My 2cents here. Its not a great place to short. 520 was a great place to short. This market is selling off on low volume into a lot of resistance. Sure it could do this for the next 2 weeks like it did in March, but thats not for certain. A news articles could crash it as well, but there is no news on the weekends most of the time.

I think its a good time to be out of coins into fiat until the continuation (my most likely scenario) of the bear market is confirmed.

I believe that I get what you are saying here; however how do you know when to get back in? Are you getting back in, at some point? $440-ish? or lower? and let's say we get to $440ish, then rally but bull trap? you go based on volume to figure out whether it is a true rally? it is just so hard to tell if there is a whale or two who seem to be selling at a loss, just to drive down prices. You cannot be sure about when that whale is going to change strategies.

Quote from: lemonte on April 18, 2014, 02:20:42 PM

My opinion Is Yes, Some Chinese people are cutting their losses and leaving, however I also think there's a degree of the drop Is people knowing that volume will be low because of Easter/bank holidays and taking advantage of this.

Also, like I've mentioned before, these news stories are still doing the rounds, just look at Social media. It'll take a few days for those to be forgotten about. Sentiment in the West seems to be picking up a bit, look at the surveys on here and Reddit, both indicative of a bullish, bit realistic sentiment.

I'm making no predictions, A./ my TA is shit, B./ I've just polished off my second glass of wine, but I do know that this weekend is a write off.

So, more or less, you are predicting one more test of the "bottom" over the weekend, since there is a long weekend.. and holidays and less cash on the exchanges..

In that regard, maybe $420 to $440 over the weekend... ?

I am NOT selling,but I will attempt to plan upon when is the next time and price to buy - attempting to predict more or less the bottom? Since I buy on coinbase, I cannot really set up my orders up in advance.. unless I trade on BTC e, which I do NOT feel comfortable selling at these prices.

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 18, 2014, 03:18:23 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 06:17:48 AM

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 18, 2014, 05:59:21 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 04:21:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 02:48:26 AM

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... Grin

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message. If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why. If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was. In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

LMAO!!!!!! Ohh I just had a grand realization - that notorious 'Final Lesson' Jorge has been warning us about in ominous terms since months now must be a candid pic of his decrepifying behind scantily clad in a hula skirt while doing a literal round of the 'spinning' he'd always been accused of doing here - a sight sure to indeed leave even most internet-hardened veterans scarred for life Grin

Prof., you must show mercy ahahaa

[..]

I found it to just be a continuation of the same thing that I had been accusing him.. non-responsive to my concerns about his intentionally spreading misinformation here. Probably, we should NOT be calling him professor b/c that gives way too much credence to him and many of his non-sense posts...

[..]

Nahh, we may yet title him 'Prof.' merely as a tongue-in-cheek address in much the same way one humors a disheveled old homeless street joker in the Brooklyn subway Cheesy

(Sorry Jorge I don't intend to be so mean - it's just teasing you is so irresistible ;p)

I think that some posters already do that... they call him prof. as a form of exaggeration or to suggest that he should know better.

To each his own, and I sometimes will use such a title strategically, as well - in order to exaggerate a point.

On the other hand, I question whether he really is a professor... but doesnt really matter too much to me, either way.

Mostly important to attempt to stick with the substance; however, sometimes personal motivations and personal representation do become a part of attempting to know which posts to trust and which ones NOT to trust. And, sometimes when a panic comes on, a trusted poster could help to put matters into perspective. An untrusted poster could assist to accomplish the same, as long as the reader understands that the particular poster is untrusted.

Quote from: pjviitas on April 18, 2014, 03:57:55 PM

Quote from: Raystonn on April 18, 2014, 03:49:32 PM

Quote from: pjviitas on April 18, 2014, 03:39:18 PM

Quote from: BitChick on April 18, 2014, 03:37:43 PM

Quote from: pjviitas on April 18, 2014, 03:14:10 PM

Quote from: BitChick on April 18, 2014, 03:10:51 PM

Quote from: pjviitas on April 18, 2014, 03:08:09 PM

Quote from: rjp55 on April 18, 2014, 02:29:07 PM

I wonder how many people have bought into bitcoin and been killed short term with drops. So they become bitter and start shorting it and then get killed on its way up. Then preach to everyone that the market is manipulated and they predict doom for all on their way out.

duh...ya...thats been everybody on here at one time or another. Its part of the learning curve.

Everyone? If you don't trade you can't short and get burned. This is why holding is always a great option!

Hubby and I have just been buying and holding for a little over a year now.

I am not talking about holders...I am talking about people that actually care about the day to day price of bitcoin

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price! Wink

why?

Most holders do so with the goal of increasing their wealth. The current USD/BTC price is the current measure of that wealth. It follows that holders would very much care about USD/BTC price at all times, as they care about the value of their wealth at all times.

I should create an Android app/widget that displays wealth based on BTC holdings multiplied by USD/BTC liquidation price.

I just thought holders where more set-it-and-forget-it laid back types.

In any event what I was originally getting at is that people that buy and sell bitcoin on a regular basis usually get burned at one time or another...part of the learning curve.

I consider myself mostly a buyer and a holder - even though I have come to dabble a little bit in the trading with very small quantities of BTC. I mostly lose when I attempt to do this, and I have been attempting to increase my BTC holdings without adding more fiat.

I will find it much easier to increase my trading activities, at least on the big upswings and/or the knowable big downswings, once I get in the black. Hopefully, I will be getting back into the black within the next several months, since NOW my current average buy-in cost is about $607 including fees. I am fairly confident to get back into the black soon, and to continue to attempt to increase holdings while attempting to lower or at least minimize my overall average buy-in costs.

I have found some of the systems in BTC to make it really easy to buy and sell BTC quickly with fairly low cost (.02% on BTC e), and this trading can be done 24/7, both a blessing and a curse. Cheesy

Quote from: BitChick on April 18, 2014, 04:09:26 PM

Quote from: pjviitas on April 18, 2014, 04:06:03 PM

interesting...tell me more about this sss plan

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

Thanks a lot for the link, Bitchick. Certainly, rpteila has generated a lot of great quality content in this forum...

Quote from: BitChick on April 18, 2014, 04:21:10 PM

Quote from: Equus on April 18, 2014, 04:11:42 PM

Quote from: pjviitas on April 18, 2014, 03:39:18 PM

Quote from: BitChick on April 18, 2014, 03:37:43 PM

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price! Wink

why?

So we can decide when to buy more!

That's true too! Cheesy

Although I am getting low on fiat. I am now Bitcoin "rich" and fiat "poor." Wink

yes... ready for the next bubble, then ... . in order to liquidate some of that BTC..

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 18, 2014, 06:12:34 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 05:38:02 PM

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 18, 2014, 03:18:23 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 06:17:48 AM

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 18, 2014, 05:59:21 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 04:21:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 02:48:26 AM

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... Grin

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message. If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why. If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was. In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

LMAO!!!!!! Ohh I just had a grand realization - that notorious 'Final Lesson' Jorge has been warning us about in ominous terms since months now must be a candid pic of his decrepifying behind scantily clad in a hula skirt while doing a literal round of the 'spinning' he'd always been accused of doing here - a sight sure to indeed leave even most internet-hardened veterans scarred for life Grin

Prof., you must show mercy ahahaa

[..]

I found it to just be a continuation of the same thing that I had been accusing him.. non-responsive to my concerns about his intentionally spreading misinformation here. Probably, we should NOT be calling him professor b/c that gives way too much credence to him and many of his non-sense posts...

[..]

Nahh, we may yet title him 'Prof.' merely as a tongue-in-cheek address in much the same way one humors a disheveled old homeless street joker in the Brooklyn subway Cheesy

(Sorry Jorge I don't intend to be so mean - it's just teasing you is so irresistible ;p)

I think that some posters already do that... they call him prof. as a form of exaggeration or to suggest that he should know better.

To each his own, and I sometimes will use such a title strategically, as well - in order to exaggerate a point.

On the other hand, I question whether he really is a professor... but doesnt really matter too much to me, either way.

Mostly important to attempt to stick with the substance; however, sometimes personal motivations and personal representation do become a part of attempting to know which posts to trust and which ones NOT to trust. And, sometimes when a panic comes on, a trusted poster could help to put matters into perspective. An untrusted poster could assist to accomplish the same, as long as the reader understands that the particular poster is untrusted.

I sincerely doubt Jorge is misrepresenting himself and I know he's not stupid. What he is doing is pontificating and prognosticating out of his field. Economics is the pariah of academia and not completely without reason. Jorge is like the Noam Chomsky of Bitcoin, but that may be giving him too much credit. At least he has a hypothesis and he's testing it.

Economics and TA are similar in that people who don't know the discipline dismiss it as not a valid field. We would never do this with physics, chemistry or even social sciences like etymology or history. Jorge is making a common mistake. It's not more complicated or nefarious than that.

I think that you are giving him WAY TOO MUCH credit, if you are calling him the Noam Chomsky of Bitcoin - without getting too much into Noam Chomsky. Chomsky has dabbled successfully in a large number of academic and political fields.

I would characterize Jorge's involvement in this bitcoin dialogue more like a rock star commenting on politics. Sure the rock star is going to know some things about politics, but his/her opinion is NOT any better than the rest of the people - even though the rockstar gets a lot of credit and exposure b/c of his/her status as a rockstar.... even though s/he may be talking out of his/her ass about an opinion that is NOT much different from Joe Blow, off of the street.

So Jorge has been attempting to unfairly bring his rockstar status to this debate to add credibility to his bs... but it gets worse b/c some of the times, unlike a rock star, Jorge seems to be engaging in purposefully misleading approaches... it is NOT innocent opinions but deceptive portrayals... b/c it is pretty clearly that reasonable inferences from the evidence is that he knows better.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 18, 2014, 08:12:41 PM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on April 18, 2014, 08:00:37 PM

Quote from: lyth0s on March 18, 2014, 06:00:45 AM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on March 18, 2014, 05:55:00 AM

Quote from: lyth0s on March 18, 2014, 05:19:05 AM

Yeah following my predicted correction to $550-590 here: http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

My prediction thread here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518871

Odd that we don't see you here all the times you guess wrong...

When did I guess wrong? That is my first prediction thread ever as far as I know...It's also the first time I've published my opinion online (GeekCipher).

Where have you been, Cipher? Nearly a month missing from your own "analysis" thread.

It's odd we don't see you here now that you were so incredibly far off the mark with your random price guesses. I'm sorry, I meant "math." That's what you claimed to use, right, when Arepo inquired about your prediction?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518871.msg5816338#msg5816338

I mean you assured us we'd only drop to $580 in March (maybe 550 at lowest), not $450 as we did. Your price acumen also led us to believe we'd see $694 on 4/16 -- why are we at $480? At nearly $220 off the mark that means you're wrong by roughly 45%! Eekgads, man. I guess it's back to peddling stolen software codes and other fishy Bitcoin enterprises...

Here is the post I originally wrote to you but did not submit because I wanted to give you some rope... Enjoy! (imagine this post starts with you asking, "When did I guess wrong?")

-----
You haven't given it enough time yet. You understand humans don't know the future, right? Being correct once or twice or even 3 times about a future event doesn't mean you know anything more about the future than my 3-year old niece or my pet dog. It may make you observant. It may make you fortunate. It doesn't make you future gnostic. Fortunately for your efforts humans are superstitious.

You made the prediction a day ago. I think most people here are assuming it looked like there would be a drop of up to $20-$100 and then believe it'll rise. You didn't exactly go out on a limb. But of course the first thing you do on the drop, to gain trust, is jump into a thread you do not participate in and declare your genius to the world. Your post history has nearly ZERO price prediction before yesterday.

Look, whatever scam you're up to just hasn't played out yet. You're involved in every scammy/scummy Bitcoin enterprise in existence. It is leading to only one end, and that is you running with other people's BTC without them receiving whatever you promised. The community doesn't need any more of YOU.

Seriously, you're selling gift cards, used electronics (oh, by the way you declared you're starting a "bitcoin museum" and are looking for stuff "super cheap"), video game codes, ASIC hosting (how generous of you), hashing power payouts, prognostication services (preparing to sell this, or just driving people to your awesome WP site?), buying used Casascius coins "for fun", etc. You are a walking scam waiting to explode.

You're in the "gaining trust" phase either for a bigger event or waiting to see which smaller scam offers quickest/biggest returns, have likely scammed others in the past (or perhaps you're a young gamer and burgeoning thief?), and are ready to move into the phase where you either start taking payments for pyramids, fortune telling services or start selling more expensive stuff that never arrives.

Or perhaps how long until folks realize their "hosted" machines are supplying the "hashing power" you're selling? You posted in January 2014: "I absolutely LOVE your setup! now to find a datacenter to host some of my miners.." Yet you now offer hosting services yourself? What are you, a Joe Blow reseller who has magically found a way to make ROI on miner hosting? You're probably running a bunch of smaller varying scam setups waiting to see which one begins to pay out the most more quickly.

But you should thank me for this post. Something like it gets posted in the lifetime of every scammer. Unfortunately it causes the dumbest humans to defend you because it does actually appear you haven't scammed anyone yet or haven't been caught. Congrats on that. We wouldn't want to jump to any conclusions about you. So for now, everyone can pile on me and tell me what a terrible human I am. I mean, you're just an entrepreneur, trying to make a buck, right?
-----

BOOM goes the dynamite! I don't know that guy from Jack, but I love a good verbal beat down and that qualifies. Keyser is Verbal, kint you get it?

Many times I see Keyser's posts are short, but NOT this one.... Good post!!!

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 18, 2014, 11:06:57 PM

just got back from vacation, a few hours ago, didn't have a chance to watch price for like 7 days, feels weird being on a computer again.

One or two days ago, I speculated your return would be no later than 4/20 - but thinking more like 4/19 (at least before the poll ended). In my humble estimation, I was about 80% correct.

Now, if I could get bitcoin prices 80% correct, I would be rich, rich, rich. Wink

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 19, 2014, 02:24:20 AM

Quote from: PoolMinor on April 19, 2014, 02:01:48 AM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on April 19, 2014, 01:40:12 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 19, 2014, 01:24:08 AM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on April 19, 2014, 12:24:53 AM

. Also, have you not noticed Bitcoin's deflation since November?

You mean that the exchange rate has declined. I am sure that you are aware that this was widely anticipated. Ross Ulbricht did not secure his funds adequately to the risks he encountered.

I mean the value of Bitcoin went down, just as the dollar does when it inflates. Whether it is anticipated or not has no bearing on your original claim. Same with whether Ross secured his funds properly or not. You know this. You're not stupid. You simply have rhetoric that you don't want to back away from. Some might call that disingenuous, especially since you're smart enough to realize your mistake.

Keyser's on a rampage. We're a long way off from mass consumer adoption. There needs to be some key markets that we need to capture first. It might even be better to make it more exclusive. You know, something like "Bitcoin, for people smarter than you".

"Keyser's on a rampage" is that bullish?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 19, 2014, 03:30:04 AM

I would timidly guess that there will not be much change in the price today (Saturday).

Significant changes could only be caused by news about the money input/output channels to the Chinese exchanges, positive or negative; or from the absence of such news when such news could have appeared, since traders could see that absence as a positive sign.

However, between today and Sunday no news are expected, and probably there will be none. So there should be no reason for sudden changes in the traders' mood.

The transition from Sunday to Monday is more uncertain. It is possible that some traders will decide to change their BTC:CNY positions on Sunday night or Monday morning in antecipation of whatever news they think many come out on Monday.

I though that Saturdays were traditional dump days. ... b/c of the potential of little fiat on the exchanges in order to counter-act those kinds of dumps.. and the fact that there is a quasi-holiday, there may be even a longer weekend with potentially less fiat to counteract any kind of dumping action... Is this NOT a bit of a pattern for Saturdays.. or maybe we are still trying to figure out the post gox and post china pattern... to some extent?

Quote from: octaft on April 19, 2014, 07:05:29 AM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on April 19, 2014, 06:53:18 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 19, 2014, 06:03:56 AM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on April 19, 2014, 12:24:53 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 19, 2014, 12:02:30 AM

The benefit to consumers is that your funds are safe from confiscation by inflation or outright takings.

BTW, DPR got his coins confiscated and people get coins outright taken all the time so maybe re-evaluate your rhetoric.

if you leave your keys in the car it is vulnerable to theft. Bitcoin is easier to secure than any other exchange medium in the world.

Having read many of your other posts I understand you do not admit when you're wrong so I will leave you whatever last words on this you'd like, however you've now changed the topic, stated your opinion as fact, and not bothered to address any of your earlier mistakes. So it wouldn't really be worth the effort to continue correcting you.

Keyser is making my arguments for me.

I will add that I don't think bitcoin is as easy to secure as many of you think. Someone with a lot of experience knows how to secure themselves, sure, but the vast majority of people are going to remain vulnerable to losing coins from hardware failure and hacking. I'm sure plenty of people are not going to see the advantage of bitcoin over just using a credit card. The merchant pays all the fees, and since it's the consumer doing the buying, nobody cares about the merchant. That's assuming you pay off the credit card every month, otherwise you are borrowing money and are rightfully charged for that.

In my opinion, the real future of bitcoin lies in the ability to send large amounts of value in a short amount of time, not to make small transactions that are immediately converted to dollars to avoid being subject to volatility. Then again, once the bitcoins get there, they will probably be immediately sold for the same reason the merchants are immediately selling them: to avoid volatility.

I am NOT much of a technical geek; however, currently, I am of the sense that bitcoin has the potential to be very secure - whether online storage or offline storage, so long as the storage and various abilities to spend, save, transfer, and to keep track of one's personal coins becomes more user friendly. If some apps can be developed to make these matters easier to use without having to keep track of a zillion passwords or a zillion addresses, then easy user interface has the potential to cause bitcoin to be very secure. In current times, bitcoin seems to be technically complicated b/c there are so many different apps and addresses and keys - which is likely going to cause less security.. in my humble bumble opinion.

Quote from: Tyson95 on April 19, 2014, 07:55:34 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 19, 2014, 04:05:06 AM

Largeish hidden buy order on Bitfinex @475 keeping the market up. It just bought 350 btc from me. I wonder how much more its willing to buy from me?

Ouch

ON a mission to lose money, if selling 350 BTC at $475?

Quote from: KFR on April 19, 2014, 08:33:57 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 19, 2014, 08:17:56 AM

Quote from: mooncake on April 19, 2014, 07:53:11 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 19, 2014, 07:33:22 AM

Do I need to tell the many ways in which the private keys of a victim can be obtained by a thief?

Please enlighten us.

OK, where do I start? You know what a 'computer' is? A 'program'? A 'hacker'? A 'trojan'? A 'key logger'? A 'hardware patch'? A 'memory dump'? A 'covert channel'? A 'malicious wallet software'? A 'pseudo-pseudo-random number generator'? A 'social engineer'? A 'disgruntled employee'? A 'naive user'?

Credit card payment authentication requires transmission of authorising data. Bitcoins are easier to keep safe right now. But this is programmable money and it's getting safer all the time. You may not have the vision and imagination to consider what some entrepreneurs will: that enterprising innovators will only make bitcoins safer while credit cards, paypal passwords - every alternative is [cough]heartbleed[/cough] just as vulnerable if not more vulnerable than Bitcoin.

Every single thing you listed above could be applied to fiat alternatives such as credit cards, online banking services, payment processors etc.

You know this. Either you know all this or you wilfully ignore everything you disagree with. I guess you're far too "academic" to let facts get in the way of your agenda.

In my opinion you seem to be giving Jorge way too much credit. Jorge knows that there are equal if NOT greater security problems with various fiat systems, and he seems to be purposefully failing to engage in rigorous analysis in order to make an appropriate comparison.

EDIT: I do see that Jorge made additional posts (above) to attempt some comparison between bitcoin and various other fiat payment systems. I remain of the conclusion that his comparison are inadequate largely on the basis that the security of bitcoin is continuing to evolve. Surely there are currently some security issues with bitcoin - yet Jorge seems to be overstating them in order to spread FUD about bitcoin. I look forward to continued developments in the bitcoin space to make improvements on security b/c certainly, it remains a concern for everyone if a security issue develops or involves an individual user, then the irreversible nature of a transaction can be very problematic if one's coins get in the wrong hands.

Quote from: xulescu on April 19, 2014, 10:42:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 19, 2014, 10:15:37 AM

EDIT: I do see that Jorge made additional posts (above) to attempt some comparison between bitcoin and various other fiat payment systems. I remain of the conclusion that his comparison are inadequate largely on the basis that the security of bitcoin is continuing to evolve. Surely there are currently some security issues with bitcoin - yet Jorge seems to be overstating them in order to spread FUD about bitcoin. I look forward to continued developments in the bitcoin space to make improvements on security b/c certainly, it remains a concern for everyone if a security issue develops or involves an individual user, then the irreversible nature of a transaction can be very problematic if one's coins get in the wrong hands.

See this: https://freedom-to-tinker.com/blog/randomwalker/bitcoin-hacks-and-thefts-the-underlying-reason/

EDIT: this article suggests that Bitcoin security is much harder to do than "real-world" security, because the expected disutility of punishment is way lower. I expect software/communication security to evolve more or less uniformly. [Don't forget the first goxxing of Gox, when they were sending passwords with GET, unhashed. Announcement thread from 2010, second page or so. Unbelievable people still kept money in Gox with that first impression]

Thanks for the explanation of your understanding of the article that you cited.

As you may recall, there was a lot of FUD involved with GOX and even with the other security issues that were mentioned in the article.

In any event, my main point in the section that you quoted from me is that various security issues are continuing to being worked on in the bitcoin space, and surely breaches of security (and even perceptions of breaches in security) can undermine public confidence in bitcoin and undermine bitcoin adoption.

As we speak, these matters are continuing to be addressed by a variety of people in the bitcoin space. Personally, I remain of the belief that user-friendly and better security are in bitcoin's near future.. yet we cannot be sure exactly how it is going to evolve.. but it is NOT an insurmountable path and bitcoin has already been made to be more secure than fiat.. and that is one of its main advantages.. and also solving the double spend problem... which had been vexing to any prior digital currency (and continues to be a problem for fiat-related systems).

Quote from: xulescu on April 19, 2014, 11:32:30 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 19, 2014, 11:00:51 AM

solving the double spend problem... which had been vexing to any prior digital currency (and continues to be a problem for fiat-related systems).

Double spending is not at all a problem with fiat. Neither cash nor credit. Counterfeinting and (succesful) attacks on cards, POS'es, ATMs yes, but not double spending. You cannot clone Benjamin. At least not a fictive but definitely produceable quantum Benjamin that cannot be cloned.

I am NOT sure about what kind of crazy reality you are living in, if you somehow are of the belief that there is any kind of meaningful control in any direction on the quantity of fiat in circulation - whether that be by prolific government printing, or even various kinds of shenanigans in other respects by banks or private individuals who compromise the quantity of fiat integrity... which even can be problems in the digital transaction spheres (and may NOT be completely disclosed to the public).

Bitcoin has run into some troubles when the transactions that have been taking place off of the blockchain, and solutions are being considered and worked on for these kind of matters.

Anyhow, my point in making the original statement about solving the double spend problem is mainly to suggest that this bitcoin innovation is very crucial to bitcoin and also to any other currency that may coopt or copy such bitcoin innovation(s) - whether bitcoin survives or NOT, this solving of the double spend problem was an amazing innovation (invention) in and of itself.

Quote from: rpietila on April 19, 2014, 05:51:30 PM

Shameless cross-post to advertise my recent findings:

Quote from: rpietila on April 19, 2014, 05:41:32 PM

I found some results from the correlation of (previous_month;next_month) pairs. In other words, how the percentage gain in the previous month correlates with the gain of the coming month.

1. The linear trend was with positive slope, so in general it goes up the more, the more it has already gone up mo/mo. Grin

y = 0,2394x + 0,0672
R² = 0,05661

2. If it has crashed -22% or more in the previous month, the next month has never been better than +76%.

3. If it has crashed -48% or more, the next month has also always been negative!

4. If it has gone up at least +6% and not more than +255% (LOL) in the previous month, the next month has never been worse than -32%.

5. About zero gain last month can lead to 500% gain next month (or -50% loss).

2014-5-19: Our Last Month has been -0.083 == -17%

Currently with prices floating around $500, BTC prices are about 55% down from the ATH of $1150-ish (over 4.5 months ago)... and about zero gain in the last month. So your findings are telling us we will NOT go any lower than $250, but NO higher than $2500 within the next 30 days? or do we measure from $340 to say we will go no higher than $1700 and no lower than $170.

Something seems very incomplete with this supposed mathematical look at past performance to describe potential future performance. - like it's missing something.

Quote from: conspirosphere.tk on April 19, 2014, 09:29:35 PM

Quote from: boumalo on April 19, 2014, 08:38:27 PM

We have a few posts of rpietila; posts were extremely bullish and positive in May 2013, it is different now

i hope they're not so bearish and right that i'll have to blow out my brainz, given that i'm balls-deep invested in btc

What is balls deep? what is your buy in costs per BTC on average?

Quote from: bigdave on April 20, 2014, 02:15:33 AM

I'm sensing a pump and dump.

That's what I am thinking too...

Quote from: sidhujag on April 20, 2014, 06:11:11 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 20, 2014, 02:30:52 AM

Quote from: sidhujag on April 20, 2014, 02:24:19 AM

Takes 10 yrs screen time to see price. Once u do that u may win 51 lose 49 times but dont ask for more.. usually your edge isnt much bigger in markets.. any forex guru claiming 75%+ win rate is a scammer one way or another gauranteed. In the end its not about the fact that your system gives an edge
but how u control you emotions to execute. Thats all you need to know to make money. Easier said than done.

thats true for ignorant traders. we have unfolding fundamental themes here. the more knowledge one has, the more accurately one can read the charts. Stock traders are usually professionals in their fields, such as mining, commodities etc... they have a stronger edge.

I am not the only one here who has made more than 10x my money here. Bitcoin is a phenomena.

The forex markets are much larger and robust, randomised, and manipulated. I would agree that nobody can sytematically make 75% from that.

I also agree about the emotions, not only your emotions/logic but others aswell.

Its only10x because your an early adopter.. when average joe gets in it will be just like forex where 1 pip is like 1 mbtc movement from added liquidity.

The 1000:1 brokers are fake.. you will be requoted during news such that you always lose 75% of the time your spread will be 10x enough to break any system even if your jesse livermore..

If you keep winning they can then shut you down for no reason.. and your funds? Not so secure in cypress.. no thanks good riddance to forex. Never touch that shit again.

The hedge funds and big player collude with each other to game the system.. they offer each other inside info.. Thats not a system thats fraud. They only make money from access to info where even a teenager can out trade them. The rest of us can win if we understand the enemy.. and in forex and stocks there are too many of them now.. Broker bank and dark pools. Atleast here we know we are trading vs each other.

I keep trying to wrap my mind around these kinds of comments to leave forex b/c it is too manipulated.

Maybe I am NOT familiar enough, but bitcoin is much more able to manipulate based on its small market cap and also based on a certain tolerance of off the blockchain transactions.

My thinking is that Bitcoin is going to be highly manipulated for several years - until:

1) the market cap grows to 100 billion or maybe 1 trillion would be much better to make manipulation more difficult,

2) more transactions need to take place either on the blockchain or through trusted mechanisms (maybe sidechains will help with this),

3) I am a little conspiratorial in my thinking that the government and/or other bad actors such as banking institutions may have gotten a hold of stolen coins and are manipulating through those means - so security and ease of use will help to lessen the ability to manipulate and

4) there may be some other revisionary mechanisms that will provide reforms that I am NOT considering at the moment.

Quote from: Richy_T on April 20, 2014, 06:59:45 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 19, 2014, 10:15:37 AM

EDIT: I do see that Jorge made additional posts (above) to attempt some comparison between bitcoin and various other fiat payment systems. I remain of the conclusion that his comparison are inadequate largely on the basis that the security of bitcoin is continuing to evolve. Surely there are currently some security issues with bitcoin - yet Jorge seems to be overstating them in order to spread FUD about bitcoin. I look forward to continued developments in the bitcoin space to make improvements on security b/c certainly, it remains a concern for everyone if a security issue develops or involves an individual user, then the irreversible nature of a transaction can be very problematic if one's coins get in the wrong hands.

What concerns me is the Jorge brings problems, not solutions even when some of these solutions are fairly obvious or already known and only require a little imagination and deduction. The process should be "X is a problem this is why it is unsolvable" or "X is a problem, a possible way to mitigate it might be Y" but what we appear to be getting is "X is a problem now let's run around in circles yelling like our hair is on fire"

YES!!!!! That's another good way of putting it. Every once in a while Jorge contributes some useful analysis or brings up some interesting negative facts about bitcoin or the protocol or other cryptos. However, a large majority of the time, He points out a whole shit load of problems.., and like you said, the solutions may be plenty, but he selectively spins the problem aspect(s)... These kinds of behaviors cause me to believe that he is being disingenuous in his various presentations of issues... b/c clearly he seems to know better and he seems to be capable.

Personally, I think that various posters like Jorge and some of the other FUD spreaders are actually doing a disservice to bitcoin... b/c many bitcoin evangalists are attempting to spread good words about bitcoin, and these guys (gals) are either distracting from that or spreding the opposite... which really causes longer and longer for bitcoin to receive greater adoption.. which will be better in the end for everyone (not only those who may gain financially but all the people will be advantaged by greater bitcoin adoption in order to lessen the power of banks/ and/or governments from continuing to dilute and pervert the various fiat money supply systems.

Quote from: Richy_T on April 20, 2014, 03:51:29 PM

Quote

By the way, the MtGOX heist must have been the largest single digital theft of all time, not just of bitcoin. Is that true? I cannot even imagine how a hacker could steal 300 million old-fashioned dollars from a company, and walk away with it.

I don't know. Was it a single theft? Have you heard more about it than the rest of us? It seems to me that there's a lot of information still to come out and Karpeles is a compulsive serial liar.

Some of these theories about US Govt involvement also seem very plausible - especially when dealing with a bunch of dweebs like Karpeles.. Potentially, he would have been vulnerable to various US Govt manipulations - which can be very tricky given all the Shenanigans with NSA and problems with the dollar, etc. etc. etc.

Quote from: Nightowlace on April 20, 2014, 09:18:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 20, 2014, 08:44:01 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on April 20, 2014, 03:51:29 PM

Quote

By the way, the MtGOX heist must have been the largest single digital theft of all time, not just of bitcoin. Is that true? I cannot even imagine how a hacker could steal 300 million old-fashioned dollars from a company, and walk away with it.

I don't know. Was it a single theft? Have you heard more about it than the rest of us? It seems to me that there's a lot of information still to come out and Karpeles is a compulsive serial liar.

Some of these theories about US Govt involvement also seem very plausible - especially when dealing with a bunch of dweebs like Karpeles.. Potentially, he would have been vulnerable to various US Govt manipulations - which can be very tricky given all the Shenanigans with NSA and problems with the dollar, etc. etc. etc.

B613 is actually being funded from the stolen Gox coins for the next 3 years.

Can you explain what this is and how you would either know or infer that Gox coins are contributing to this?

Quote from: derpinheimer on April 20, 2014, 09:40:48 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on April 20, 2014, 09:32:38 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on April 20, 2014, 09:30:31 PM

Well my opinion is a slow drop in to the lower double digits over the course of 2014, and probably through 2015. Looks like a sinking ship to me. I've been pretty bullish mid term in the past but with the whole Gox ordeal, my opinion is that its GG for bitcoin.

I very much doubt we will be seeing double digits and certainly over such an extended period of time what is it about the gox ordeal that will still bring the price down ?

I dont see any more catalysts for bitcoin going up. The average joe just doesnt care about saving a buck on a transaction, nor do they care about anonymity, nor do they transfer money across the world more than once in their life.

Pretty much everyone has heard of bitcoin by now, and that helped with the bubble to $260. And then, people learned about bitcoin and what it does in the run up last year. Now, what would possibly trigger another jump? People know about it and what it does. They dont want any part of it.

I have bitcoins and I dont use them for anything but gambling. If amazon accepted them, I still wouldnt (And I shop at amazon A LOT). I dont feel remotely safe having bitcoins on my computer due to how easily they are stolen, and I dont like transactions because its not reversible. Yeah, a better interface is totally possible but still, credit cards are easy.

Again this is just my opinion(obviously) and I dont mean for anything to come off as fact, "PROVE IT!!!"

I sure as hell hope I'm wrong though, as I HODL on to my remaining $380 coins.

* I suppose there are a few things that could trigger another jump (big investors) but even if that occurs, I still see it just delaying the inevitable drop to the lower double digits.

You surely are coming across as worse than a glass half full kind of poster.

You seem to be focusing on the empty portion of the glass, while seeming to ignore the content within the glass and the fact that there is a pitcher that can refill the glass on the same table.

Surely, it is possible that BTC prices will continue to go down into the $100s, but NOT very likely. Additionally, there is a considerable amount of ongoing developments in the bitcoin space that are likely going to have delayed effects on increasing the price.

So what, we have some downward period that may last several months longer than expected? - that does NOT meaningfully affect the long term potentials for bitcoin.

At the moment, I do NOT know what further to say to cause you to focus on the bigger picture, rather than seeming to cry in your perceptions of a "half empty" glass.

Quote from: uhoh on April 20, 2014, 10:40:27 PM

Quote from: mah87 on April 20, 2014, 10:32:19 PM

Do you think Ripple is the future ?

There's only one person who thinks that ripple is the future!

Hehehehe... a network of 1.

Quote from: chessnut on April 21, 2014, 03:17:26 AM

Quote from: BitChick on April 21, 2014, 03:13:18 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 21, 2014, 03:04:26 AM

Huobi is eating walls. 130BTC sell wall gone in a flash.

Do we dare post pictures of trains yet? They haven't seemed to work as of late.

I did have a dream we were at $1350 last night. I was yelling at my husband for not selling any at $1350. But then he said, "The price is $5500." I said, "that is half of what it was!" I guess I can't do math while sleeping. But of course, even in my dreams it is better to hold. Grin

yup just when everyone thought they had learned their lesson about posting train pics, here comes the train.
you go first. Grin

may your dreams come true.

What we really need is a new poll.

And, yep, a train would be nice, too... CCMF!!!

Quote from: boumalo on April 21, 2014, 12:28:13 PM

On the other hand if the rise goes high enough the short need to cut their positions which makes us go higher; a lot of traders are looking for the price to break a few resistances to get back in

You may be correct, and some of them are somewhat risk averse and will leave some money on the table by waiting to receive certain assurances....

I have a couple thousand fiat that I could invest right now... it is in my bank account, but I am NOT investing it now b/c I am using it to hedge for the possibility that we could go below $450 or $400 or $350 or even lower. To me, it seems that the longer we linger in this $460 to $560 territory, the more likely we are going to be breaking upward rather than downward....

Quote from: frienemy on April 21, 2014, 01:46:25 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on April 21, 2014, 12:56:29 PM

I might have to move to Germany at some point (free travel within the EU anyway) but I'm not sure when the one year will commence then. From when I bought it or from when I moved country?

From when you bought. Your gains are becoming taxable the instant you sell the coins (even if you leave the fiat on the exchange).

I'm working in a tax office in Germany, so I'm not talking complete bullshit ^^

That is really ridiculous and potentially burdensome.

Quote from: Raystonn on April 21, 2014, 11:24:45 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 21, 2014, 11:19:53 PM

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on April 21, 2014, 10:23:30 PM

If you bought Bitcoin a year ago would you have made a profit or not? How about a year before that? I guess the thing to do is buy as much as you can afford right now and come back next year to tell the story of your great success.

You would have made only a paper profit. You have to SELL to have a real profit.

Are you calling Bitcoin paper? You want him to sell his BTC for paper U.S. dollars to avoid his profit being paper?

Are you serious?

This is a basic concept and a basic expression to cash out in order to realize the payoff of the investment. The expression of paper profit or paper loss for that matter, is NOT realized until the asset is cashed out.

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 21, 2014, 11:54:51 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 21, 2014, 10:12:24 PM

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 21, 2014, 10:08:12 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 21, 2014, 09:46:57 PM

I'm wondering why the $15-$18 price differential between Stamp and BTC-e. I am guessing the Russians have a better understanding of the China situation than The West has.

I'm sick of the bear market too, but I doubt it's over just because I want it to be.

BTCe is a ghetto 'sideline/secondary option' exchange & the prices reflect it (their website's GUI looks pretty uninviting as well =/) - guess people dump harder on there to be on the safe side from near-anonymous owners.

Folks here'd do well to be aware that these manipulators have enough resources & income to keep this rodeo going on for months if not years.. One doesn't handle this intelligently by 'waiting it out' & relying on 'hope' ; Keeping at least a small portion of your stash into a trading acct to buy around high 300's & 200's, and sell around 500's & 600's, is how one keeps making some very respectable, safe profit month after month, increasing total crypto net worth over time while using this activity churn as a psychological bulwark to responsibly handling the loooong potential wait before next ATH w/o depression or panic.

Suggesting people should trade during this China thing is the worst advise you can give. Out of 10 people who take your advise at least 8 will lose their money.

Selling @ relative highs & buying back in at absolute lows (200-300's) every few months or so doesn't even register as 'trading' to be honest. The majority of this thread's non-permahodlers are doing just that as we speak.

I think that there is a variety of types of participants in this thread... however, many of the ones who label themselves as NON-daytraders have been disinclined to sell below $600 or so ...

I think the idea is to buy when the price is going down and to sell when the prices is going up.. however, NONE of us can really predict when the price is going down or up.. so there is a tendency to error on the side of HODL.. and also to exercise the buying and the selling at the extremes.. to the extent that can be measured.... so if we are of the belief that there is a long term trendline that is going up, then attempt to buy below the trendline and to sell above the trendline. Sure there are other variations of that kind of a practice, yet I believe that mistakes can be made when miscalculating the trendline b/c there are quite a few varying opinions about where that trendline is, exactly.. or the short-term allure to make a few bucks, if we feel pretty confident that either news or FUD is going to cause a predictable and measureable price movement.

Quote from: prof7bit on April 22, 2014, 12:06:02 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 21, 2014, 11:53:29 PM

is NOT realized until the asset is cashed out.

Bitcoin *IS* cash.

You seem to be getting caught up in some kind of definition issues and a possibly getting caught up in a world that does NOT exist yet for a large majority of people. Most people, even in the bitcoin world, are NOT exclusively living on bitcoin, yet.

Also, as you likely realize, an investor realizes profits from an investment by converting to fiat or converting to some other assets such as luxury boats or whatever.. that is cashing out.... Hopefully, the cashing out comes when BTC prices go up......

Let's say, for example that I want to stay in fiat, but I invest in bitcoin to potentially increase my fiat. accordingly, I acquire 100 bitcoins at $500 each, and then in two days the price of those BTC goes up to $1,000 each. I may come to the conclusion that the price is going down again, so I decide to cash out all or.. Possibly, I will buy back some more bitcoins later or maybe i will just cash out half of them in order to get my fiat amount investment back.

Cashing out may NOT be a wise idea, depending on the circumstances, but, people will come to different conclusions about how much, how often or when to cash out or even whether to ever cash out.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 22, 2014, 12:31:57 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 22, 2014, 12:22:47 AM

I think the idea is to buy when the price is going down and to sell when the price is going up..

Actually, the idea is to buy when the price is about to go up and to sell when it is about to go down. Wink

(But, admittedly, there are practical difficulties in the implementation of that theoretical principle. Grin

)

YES... the practicality of real world prediction gets in the way. Cheesy

In this regard, NO one really wants to sell at $500, for example, and then in the next few days the price goes up 50% (to $750) or some other large amount. Also, NO one really wants to buy at $500 and then the price goes down to $250 in the next few days.. Therefore, a lot of people end up staggering their buys and their sells in order to approximate some kind of systematic skill in their best guesses... some guess better than others and some have more money than others to throw at the situation.

Quote from: KeyserSoze on April 22, 2014, 01:10:09 AM

My superstitious guess on Bitcoin price...

I thought that you were more bullish.. then you are seeming to evolve into something more bearish...

What's up like that?

I am glad that you proclaimed to have few technical analysis skills, so we may as well throw that part out.

In essence, we know that there have been a couple of negative news events this year.. and surely bitcoin had suffered other negative news before past bubbles... ... but the fundamentals have NOT really changed. Solutions for various problems are being worked out, and more and more of the public is becoming aware of bitcoin, yet the infrastructure may NOT be ready for the next bubble... accordingly we are dabbling in $500 and maybe we will dabble at prices below $500, such as $300s.

Nonetheless, bitcoin is NOT dead and it is NOT dying. There is NO reason to conclude that another bubble will NOT come - merely b/c the bubble may be delayed by a few months.

I think that you know the various uses of bitcoin that potentially give it value, so I should NOT have to go over any of those uses.... so the only question should be when and how much will be the next bubble rather than concluding that bitcoin has lost its momentum and accordingly is on a downward trajectory. That's just NOT a very complete picture about what is going on with bitcoin and the bitcoin space.

Quote from: TERA on April 22, 2014, 09:53:19 AM

Non-pershable food is a great investment in any circumstance. It doesn't have to be a doomsday - it could just be a hurricane, a flood, or something like that. You could even take it camping. It will probably rise in value as a commodity. You could sell it. In a worst case scenario, if you never have the need to use it and can't sell it, you could still... eat it and save money over eating out.

Most of the NON-perishable food that I looked at has ingredients of worse than cardboard. Really, it could kill you from the various anti-nutrition components. Surely, it would keep you alive in an emergency... but i would NOT recommend eating it for the purpose of saving money b/c when you end up with various negative health outcomes, it is just NOT worth the savings.

Quote from: TERA on April 22, 2014, 11:50:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 22, 2014, 11:46:25 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 22, 2014, 09:53:19 AM

Non-pershable food is a great investment in any circumstance. It doesn't have to be a doomsday - it could just be a hurricane, a flood, or something like that. You could even take it camping. It will probably rise in value as a commodity. You could sell it. In a worst case scenario, if you never have the need to use it and can't sell it, you could still... eat it and save money over eating out.

Most of the NON-perishable food that I looked at has ingredients of worse than cardboard. Really, it could kill you from the various anti-nutrition components. Surely, it would keep you alive in an emergency... but i would NOT recommend eating it for the purpose of saving money b/c when you end up with various negative health outcomes, it is just NOT worth the savings.

I think you're thinking of those ration bars that are made of sugar and flour. The ration bars are only for extreme circumstances of life and death for short timeframes. There are other food kits that are actual food, which are a more longer term solution. Half of what I was buying was MRE (meals ready to eat) that military troops eat for months while on deployment. I used to love them.

Actually, you are correct that the first thing that popped in my head were the various kinds of "nutrition" ration bars that NOT only have sugar and flour, but they contain bad oils as well (soy oils and hydrogenated oils - which are forms of transfat - which the body does NOT tolerate well).

I just googled MRE ingredients, and I was trying to figure out whether my statement regarding anti-nutrients would stand for those foods as well, and there is NOT a lot of specifics about the ingredients.. like what kinds of oils are contained therein. They probably contain transfats b/c transfats store longer and they are replacement/substitutes for saturated fats. Our bodies tolerate saturated fats well, but NOT transfats b/c transfats are not natural substitutes that are forced into form.

In the end, I would NOT consider MREs as nutritious, even though the human body may tolerate them more and on a longer basis and have fewer anti-nutrient's as the bars. I remain concerned about eating any foods on a regular basis that are intended for long-term preservation b/c some of the preservatives that are contained therein can cause various forms of additional inflammation in the body.

A young strong troup may be able to tolerate some of that abuse more than other people who may NOT be as young and strong.. Surely, good for troups to be eating food rather than NOT eating.

Anyhow, back to BTC.... we are getting more and more merchant acceptance of BTC which does allow more and more avenues to spend BTC. Yes, we should all be spending our BTC, when possible, and if BTC prices seem to be too low when we spend the BTC, then we should be replacing that BTC as soon as we spend it. On the other hand, if the prices are high when we spend the BTC, then we may NOT need to replace the BTC at the then current market rates.

Quote from: niothor on April 22, 2014, 02:35:35 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 22, 2014, 01:55:11 PM

Did i already mention how tired i am of these people dumping and trying to take the price down?

No , I think you actually never mentioned it. For all I remember you were enjoying this and telling people that if they haven't dump they should follow the herd and empty they wallets joining the dumping fiesta.

Dont forget the part about all traders are idiots.

Quote from: silverfuture on April 22, 2014, 04:24:47 PM

Quote from: Nightowlace on April 22, 2014, 04:16:12 PM

I think we are going to break out of this in a massive downtrend.

keep in mind I am always wrong when it comes to this and this is just a sad attempt to get the bitcoin powers that be to prove me wrong again

[\size]

Yup, I see 494, maybe 493 on bitstamp's horizon.

AND . ... we may go as low as $490 OM F'n G !!!!!!!

Quote from: soullyG on April 22, 2014, 11:06:14 PM

Haha, this is great - Dorian Nakamoto is a hodler:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/23pe3z/dorian_s_nakamoto_accepts_btc_donations_from/

Dorian seems to be a man of few words, and upon receipt of the 48 BTC, Andreas asked Dorian whether Dorian had any plans for the 48 bitcoins? Through blubber and tears only one word could clearly be deciphered: "HODL" Cheesy

Quote from: chessnut on April 23, 2014, 12:59:01 AM

Quote from: Raystonn on April 23, 2014, 12:49:14 AM

We have a new 3-day low. That's not so bullish. Unfortunate.

Im not sure what you mean by that, yesterday we visited 486 on stamp, not seen that again. BTC china is in a contracting range/wedge. The bullrun is losing momentum but the bias is not bearish.

The last 12 hours or so have seen some increases in volume..

Whether we have rumblings of significant price movements, only time will tell....

Even though I do NOT do lines, it seems that breaking above $560-ish or breaking below $450-ish would be significant regarding which way we are heading next.. Otherwise if the price bounces back and forth between $450 and $560, I am NOT going to get too excited...

Quote from: chessnut on April 23, 2014, 01:56:24 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 23, 2014, 01:47:25 AM

Come on, Chessnut, make a REAL case for us. You have been chattering on cheerleading the market with bullish expectations. But posting these same charts over and over again and saying things like we will go up because triangles normally continue direction is ridiculously weak TA. Make a real case for us. Tell us where the money came from to take us up. Tell us where that money is now. Tell us why we can capitulate on historically low volume. Tell us why this is really different than March. Make a real case. Answer all our bearish doubts with some real substance. We wanna believe that we can go into another bull market. Tell us why we really really should believe this without posting that one chart over and over. Give us some real meat, Chessnut!

hey im not the one who sold at 475... lol
your reasons are not strong. you cant explain why the price is going up. same old excuse - no fiat. well you are obviously wrong.
you are only so offended because you dont have the reason to convince yourself that we are in a bear market. just keep dreaming.
capitulation doesnt always happen at the bottom, youv'e had your volume, and we have seen a divergance wave.

I think that Chessnut has given as good of an explanation as can be expected under the circumstances. The Bears have been attempting to strategically push the price down on several occasions over the last week or so.. and they just have NOT been successful... thus the price is likely to continue from the direction in which it came... he he he...

I was beginning to become a little bearish, too after seeing the lack of upward movement, but I just do NOT see a whole heck of a lot of ability for the bears to continue to push the price down (absent additional FUD). The bears have run out of steam, and they are getting tired of selling to themselves b/c NO one else seems to be selling.

Quote from: windjc on April 23, 2014, 02:01:31 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 23, 2014, 01:56:24 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 23, 2014, 01:47:25 AM

Come on, Chessnut, make a REAL case for us. You have been chattering on cheerleading the market with bullish expectations. But posting these same charts over and over again and saying things like we will go up because triangles normally continue direction is ridiculously weak TA. Make a real case for us. Tell us where the money came from to take us up. Tell us where that money is now. Tell us why we can capitulate on historically low volume. Tell us why this is really different than March. Make a real case. Answer all our bearish doubts with some real substance. We wanna believe that we can go into another bull market. Tell us why we really really should believe this without posting that one chart over and over. Give us some real meat, Chessnut!

hey im not the one who sold at 475... lol
your reasons are not strong. you cant explain why the price is going up. same old excuse - no fiat. well you are obviously wrong.
you are only so offended because you dont have the reason to convince yourself that we are in a bear market. just keep dreaming.
capitulation doesnt always happen at the bottom, youv'e had your volume, and we have seen a divergance wave.

Look, man. My post wasn't sarcastic. I was ACTUALLY asking you to make a comprehensive case. The fact that you respond by saying that I am "offended" and "dreaming" and "wrong" and offered no further bull evidence makes you look the like the one who is defensive and scared. Yeah, I made a bad trade at 475 that I admitted to. Does that make the bull case stronger? Of course not. That was on me, not the market. I didn't follow my own rules in that one particular case.

But you are the one that is coming across as desperate. I don't give a flying f*** if we go up or down from here personally. I was simply asking you to make a comprehensive case. But you seem only interested in congratulating yourself on catching this wave up. Whatever.

Usually, I had been seeing Chestnut lose his cool b/c guys were pounding on him and beating him up, and in this instance, it seems that Chestnut is coming out ahead... GO Chestnut!!! I am a fan of the underdog. hehehe Cheesy

Quote from: chessnut on April 23, 2014, 02:41:36 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 23, 2014, 02:25:57 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 23, 2014, 02:01:31 AM

Come on, Chessnut, make a REAL case for us. You have been chattering on cheerleading the market with bullish expectations. But posting these same charts over and over again and saying things like we will go up because triangles normally continue direction is ridiculously weak TA. Make a real case for us. Tell us where the money came from to take us up. Tell us where that money is now. Tell us why we can capitulate on historically low volume. Tell us why this is really different than March. Make a real case. Answer all our bearish doubts with some real substance. We wanna believe that we can go into another bull market. Tell us why we really really should believe this without posting that one chart over and over. Give us some real meat, Chessnut!

Usually, I had been seeing Chestnut lose his cool b/c guys were pounding on him and beating him up, and in this instance, it seems that Chestnut is coming out ahead... GO Chestnut!!! I am a fan of the underdog. hehehe Cheesy

well I thought that was pretty inflammatory what he said up there. 'cheerleading' 'REAL case'. Ofcoarse I have fundamental reasons, I have given them, but windjc forgets those. I hope he was just joking, but it's not funny.

I'm exaggerating a little bit, too.. yet I don't think that you need to explain further... we come to different conclusions and NO one really knows. Certainly, he can provide his own analysis, and in the end, some bets may NOT pay off.. but that may NOT be the result of bad prediction, just inability to predict based upon the realities of actual manipulation that is taking place.. You can only go so far to predict the extent of the manipulation.

For all we know, Uncle Sam may have the 650K missing GOX coins and using those coins to undermine bitcoin... Uncle sam has a better chance of undermining bitcoin, if they can widdle away public confidence while bitcoin is still in its infancy stages. Additionally, some big banks may be willing to engage in some of this purposeful loss of money to manipulate the market downward... we do NOT really know for sure whether some manipulator(s), to the extent they exist may be operating at a loss in order to affect the price.

Sorry to be so conspiratorial.. but I think that there is only so much that you can do with TA lines.

Quote from: octaft on April 23, 2014, 03:31:51 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 23, 2014, 03:13:16 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 23, 2014, 02:41:36 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 23, 2014, 02:25:57 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 23, 2014, 02:01:31 AM

Come on, Chessnut, make a REAL case for us. You have been chattering on cheerleading the market with bullish expectations. But posting these same charts over and over again and saying things like we will go up because triangles normally continue direction is ridiculously weak TA. Make a real case for us. Tell us where the money came from to take us up. Tell us where that money is now. Tell us why we can capitulate on historically low volume. Tell us why this is really different than March. Make a real case. Answer all our bearish doubts with some real substance. We wanna believe that we can go into another bull market. Tell us why we really really should believe this without posting that one chart over and over. Give us some real meat, Chessnut!

Usually, I had been seeing Chestnut lose his cool b/c guys were pounding on him and beating him up, and in this instance, it seems that Chestnut is coming out ahead... GO Chestnut!!! I am a fan of the underdog. hehehe Cheesy

well I thought that was pretty inflammatory what he said up there. 'cheerleading' 'REAL case'. Ofcoarse I have fundamental reasons, I have given them, but windjc forgets those. I hope he was just joking, but it's not funny.

I'm exaggerating a little bit, too.. yet I don't think that you need to explain further... we come to different conclusions and NO one really knows. Certainly, he can provide his own analysis, and in the end, some bets may NOT pay off.. but that may NOT be the result of bad prediction, just inability to predict based upon the realities of actual manipulation that is taking place.. You can only go so far to predict the extent of the manipulation.

For all we know, Uncle Sam may have the 650K missing GOX coins and using those coins to undermine bitcoin... Uncle sam has a better chance of undermining bitcoin, if they can widdle away public confidence while bitcoin is still in its infancy stages. Additionally, some big banks may be willing to engage in some of this purposeful loss of money to manipulate the market downward... we do NOT really know for sure whether some manipulator(s), to the extent they exist may be operating at a loss in order to affect the price.

Sorry to be so conspiratorial.. but I think that there is only so much that you can do with TA lines.

"Uncle Sam" takes forever to get anything done. There is no way they could go from "bitcoin's aiight" to "let's undermine this shit" in like, 5 months, so I wouldn't worry too much about that.

Uncle Sam is a complicated mechanism comprised of a variety of conflicting entities and ideologies. Some of those entities are hidden and quasi-self-autonomous, until they are ratted out.. here and there.. and people are killed and persecuted for revealing some of the shenanigans within some govt agencies in the guise of national security. I would NOT rest assured merely b/c the IRS says one thing and NY state govt says some variation and California and Texas government says something else and FINRA says something else, and Dept. of Treasury says something else.

Have we had Homeland security and NSA chime in, yet? or the FBI and/or CIA... and/or Dept of Justice.. Anyhow, my point is that there are a variety of conflicting regulatory and policing entities, and some of them are NOT going to disclose exactly what is their position concerning bitcoin... However, we can likely rest assured in some regards to have some positive outcomes, and we can also probably rest assured to some extent that the bitcoin market cap is still fairly small, so may NOT be perceived by some actors as a problem , but instead as a benefit to the economy and to their own self-interests to acquire and preserve wealth.

Quote from: Pruden on April 23, 2014, 05:25:40 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 23, 2014, 05:00:25 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 23, 2014, 02:57:56 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 23, 2014, 02:17:44 AM

I was just hoping you could offer more comprehensive analysis. I won't ask again.

The whole story is right here.

Is there an explanation of that plot somewhere? (How can the number decrease? Because empty addresses are excluded?)
Thanks...

That's number of addresses involved in a transaction per day. A little more than two addresses per transaction.

So the number reflects transactions on the blockchain, but NOT transactions on various exchanges that are occurring off of the block chain?

Some day, it would be nice to have some additional transparency to include those other transactions, as well, maybe in separate chart(s)...

Quote from: lemonte on April 23, 2014, 08:48:27 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 23, 2014, 08:32:50 AM

Quote from: keithers on April 23, 2014, 04:53:55 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 23, 2014, 02:17:44 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 23, 2014, 02:15:44 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 23, 2014, 02:01:31 AM

Look, man. My post wasn't sarcastic. I was ACTUALLY asking you to make a comprehensive case. The fact that you respond by saying that I am "offended" and "dreaming" and "wrong" and offered no further bull evidence makes you look the like the one who is defensive and scared. Yeah, I made a bad trade at 475 that I admitted to. Does that make the bull case stronger? Of course not. That was on me, not the market. I didn't follow my own rules in that one particular case.

But you are the one that is coming across as desperate. I don't give a flying f*** if we go up or down from here personally. I was simply asking you to make a comprehensive case. But you seem only interested in congratulating yourself on catching this wave up. Whatever.

I think you need to work on your sarcasam skills.

desperate? me? I bought at 484, remember? Im pretty comfy. Im on a roll.

so you dont like your bad trades being poked at? hmm interesting. I haven't made any promises, so I really wouldn't feel the same. if you want to come poke fun at me in a couple of days ill be here, but at this rate, Im not going to forget this either.

Ive made a comprehensive case but you wouldn't remember the details. you seem to have made up your mind.

lol. whatever. I have about 100x times more at stake on exchanges than you do. Of course I care. I can't afford to have some unreasonable market bias.

I dont want to poke fun at you. That's the point. I was just hoping you could offer more comprehensive analysis. I won't ask again.

No need to argue, I think we can all agree that we want btc to continuously rise to significantly higher levels than we are at right now. I for one don't believe that the current market price is representative of the mass adoption that we have seen over the past few months. Yes we have had a fair share of bad news out of China, and a few other countries, but the amount of money being poured into the ecosystem developing new apps and btc businesses is not yet reflected in our prices. Once more of these startups are up and running, it is simple logic that we will see a ton more daily transactions, and therefore see higher prices.

Perhaps the market is not going to retest 340. But it certainly doesn't look like its going up. Here we are, the day all the fresh fiat was suppose to carry us higher and we are drip drip dripping downward.

We may be in a slow grind to nowhere for a while.

I agree with your points but don't think new Fiat would have hit yesterday with the bank holidays, I did transfers to Kraken on Saturday and they haven't cleared yet and they are normally really quick.

What kind of bothers me is that some of these market dynamics are being discussed as if they are NON-manipulative and some objective measures of lack of BTC sentiments.. which really does NOT seem to be the case....

I think that there is a considerable amount of lack of confidence for investors to send fiat to exchanges.. and accordingly, much easier to send BTC to exchanges... accordingly, we get a greater amount of downward price manipulations.

Then we have some untrustworthy elements with some of the exchanges and their lack of transparency (regarding both volume and maybe even regarding whether they are engaging in any kinds of fractional reserve like practices). I think that it remains quite a way into the future before there may be ways to truly be able to establish prices in decentralized manners that would reflect how people really felt about investing in BTC. So in that regard, BTC prices seem to be a little depressed, and there may be continued depression of prices for months - however, at some point, the upward momentum will have to break upwards and less ability to keep the price down.

Whether I am being pie in the sky with my thinking, that is how I am currently considering the downtrend in the price matter.

Quote from: Nightowlace on April 23, 2014, 12:57:57 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 23, 2014, 10:00:49 AM

Meanwhile, this thread is the greatest trollhouse I have ever seen.

I have never agreed with you more. This thread used to be my favorite thread on the forums, but it has turned into one of the worst troll hangouts I have ever seen. So many emotional, contradictory, uneducated, posts. Not saying that all posts are, but man there are a lot.

YOU made bad trades, that is not the end of bitcoin nor is it bitcoins fault.
YOU incorrectly shorted bitcoin, that is not the end of bitcoin nor is it bitcoins fault.
YOU made the decision to sell/buy that is not the end of bitcoin nor is it bitcoins fault.
YOU based your trading off of the shit that is talked in this thread, that is not the end of bitcoin nor is it bitcoins fault.
YOU'RE "Feelings" don't mean anything when it comes to bitcoin. So many posts start or end with "I feel like" "That's my feeling"
YOU are on this thread which means YOU do not poses insider information nor do I and we have limited knowledge of what the fu*k is actually happening. So posting "I heard", "I was just told", "I have info that" etc. means that whatever insider trading was/is going to happen has already happened because you are now aware of it.

Largely I agree with your above post - yet I do NOT recognize trolling as posters who may just have the wrong information. I would define trolling as posters who may know better, but they are purposefully posting false information.

Sometimes posters use phrases, such as, that is my feeling b/c this is part of the speculation subsection of the forum. S0, individuals act based on the information that they have at their disposal at the time they make their decision(s) about what to do next. NOTHING wrong with that.

I guess my point is that I recognize trolling as deliberate - rather than mere confusion or misunderstanding or even sometimes being a victim of the bad information of trolls.

Quote from: rpietila on April 23, 2014, 01:54:58 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 23, 2014, 01:36:30 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 23, 2014, 10:00:49 AM

The proliferation of Bitcoin trading and ATM's is going on everywhere. Meanwhile, this thread is the greatest trollhouse I have ever seen. I would suggest everyone to spend as much time reading something else than you read Adam Smith's Wall Observer, to have even a balanced picture of what is going on.

I remember you saying a while ago you wouldn't post much here (this forum, that is) anymore.

Guess the overwhelming demand of your loyal fans kept you here, huh?

Kind of. Because every day I get this kind of posts from people whom I have little or (generally) no prior interaction with. (date=today):

Quote from: XXX ; date=1398252383

Hello,

Just wanted to say I appreciate your posts.

I read a while ago that you were planning to spend less time on this forum and more time in a new exclusive forum.

I hope that you do not leave bitcointalk behind totally, as I think it is very important to keep up a level of quality posts, even if people must search through more and more rubbish to find them. Like it or not, bitcointalk keeps growing as the reference for people wanting to join the bitcoin community and so the trolls and fools must not be allowed to take over.

It appears that with bitcoin coming under the mainstream spotlight, more of this low quality can be expected. But there is also perhaps even a more sinister element at play: trolls working on behalf of governments, seeking to sow FUD in the community. I know it may sound far-fetched and perhaps this might make you reach for the tin foil hat, but I read a very interesting article published recently regarding the leaking of a troll handbook created by the British secret service, which teaches professional internet trolls working for the organisation to discredit targets and sow discord. I cannot help believing that bitcointalk is currently host to this kind of influence.

Anyway, keep up the good work!

I agree with XXX that you Rpietela provide good quality posts. I have read through several of your past posts. Yet I continue to wonder why this forum allows such quantity of trolling. The forum does NOT need to allow everyone - especially those who seem to be purposefully spreading FUD

Quote from: calmindifference on April 23, 2014, 06:48:41 PM

Quote from: dropt on April 23, 2014, 06:42:08 PM

Quote from: BitChick on April 23, 2014, 06:27:25 PM

Quote from: conspirosphere.tk on April 23, 2014, 06:13:33 PM

Are we at "Told you so?"

This is when we are supposed to be buying then right? Wink

IMO we're definitely at Step 15, or maybe between 14 and 15.

Hate to say it but it could be we are at 9, and 8 was on April 11

I am thinking that we are at 13 or possibly between 13 and 14 ... Alternatively, we could be at 11-ish.

Maybe we will know better about where we were in 6 months? but I doubt it.

For the next year or two (and possibly longer), there will continue to be considerable dispute about where BTC has been and where BTC is going.

Some people may consider bitcoin a failure if the price hovers between $300 and $2000 for the next two years - Seems more plausible that we would hover between $1000 and $4000 at least from the later part of 2014 until mid-2016. Though others are expecting much higher results than that.

I hope that I am too bearish in my thoughts about what is likely, and the results end up being higher than my expectations. $4,000 and above would be great, and I have some difficulties fathoming anything above $25k b/c that would certainly result in a quick and massive redistribution of wealth.... which is just difficult for me to grasp..... though it seem to be true that the world has already accepted some redistribution of wealth through bitcoin.

Quote from: dreamspark on April 23, 2014, 07:24:18 PM

Quote from: Newfeeling on April 23, 2014, 07:20:38 PM

Quote from: pepo on April 23, 2014, 07:06:33 PM

I have a doubt , please only respond if you know what youre talking about . I beleive that bitcoin to usd price is stucked cause of all the alts coins that are pulling it down , if bitcoin rises an 20% againts usd , all the coins rise as equals. If bitcoin falls all the coins falls againts usd.

The vast majority of alt-coins have their value determined by BTC value. With the exception of LTC and a handful of other alt-coins, there's no direct means of converting fiat into these without having purchased BTC or LTC first and then exchanging them for the alt-coins. In other words, if someone wants to buy an altcoin, they more likely than not will have to buy and sell through BTC to get there.

As with any other market, speculators will thrown down money in related commodities/companies/goods whenever there's a rise in the value of the primary item. It's possible that alt-coins are somehow impairing BTC, but I don't think this is a valid reason.

While its true that its traded on the pair you have to consider this. People are making profits off alt coins, people who buy or mine early some are making 1000's% profit. These people will want to realise some of these profits and thus sell some of the BTC they gain so what pepo is saying is certainly a factor. I mean look at black coin I made double figures BTC over two days, as did many others.

The problem with all these coins coming and dying is that people generally end up holding worthless alts and the big players and early adopters are already off with the BTC and likely selling some.

The bit in bold is not strictly true either, if you mine an alt early you can mine a lot with not a lot of hardware, yes I know that someone has to buy the BTC in the first place but the vast majority I would wager are investors BTC that they had previously, at least the people who are making money trading alts are probably general investors, I doubt too many people buy BTC to specifically buy an alt and if they do its probably to a large sum.

The original post in this line of question from Pepo.. seems to be a form of FUD-making and/or based on superficial mainstream propaganda.

Cryptos can both distract from and contribute to the value of bitcoin. Overall, the various alt cryptos have remained a fairly low percentage of the overall crypto market cap - less than 10%.

I get the sense that some of the developments with side chains will increase BTC's value - yet I understand that some of the competing cryptos continue to suggest that the side chains will NOT distract from the value of some of the alt cryptos. For example, the Ethereum project remains in full-swing - although maybe behind the scenes, the Ethereum founders will make adjustments to their going forward strategy(ies).

Quote from: roslinpl on April 23, 2014, 08:31:49 PM

Quote from: BitChick on April 23, 2014, 08:03:56 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 23, 2014, 07:58:34 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 23, 2014, 05:52:27 PM

i got a really good feeling about breaking through 490 in the next few hours.

here we go!!

i'm so excited.

and i just can't hide it

i'm about to lose control and i think i like it!

And what if we never see the 400's again! Grin

Indeed.
I am pretty sure that there is only a little chance that we will ever again see $400.
As we know, nothing is impossible - but imo - $400 is really close to impossible.

Cheers

For about a week, I have been holding onto a certain quantity of fiat anticipating that the market could go below $450.. ... but it seems less and less likely that prices are going to cross down there. If I could rest assured that we would NOT cross into the $400s again, I would put that fiat into BTC. However, at the moment, I am NOT that confident, so I am going to hold my little bit of fiat in reserve, just in case.

Quote from: plasticAiredale on April 23, 2014, 09:53:09 PM

Quote from: windjc on April 23, 2014, 09:47:00 PM

This board is so bullish its amazing. A testimony to bitcoin indeed.

I don't know to make of it. On one hand, all this bullish sentiment should mean that we haven't capitulated yet.

But I know that's not a complete picture.

Well this is a Bitcoin forum, kind of makes sense that the majority of people here would want Bitcoin to succeed. And to a large majority of them, success means higher prices, regardless of what TA would suggest sentiment should be.

Plus the amount of troll posts in this thread is over 9000. I think it has driven a few "normal" Bitcoin folks crazy.

Bitcoin is great! Let's all HODL some for long times!

Three cheers for HODL!!!!!!
Three cheers for HODL!!!!!!
Three cheers for HODL!!!!!!
Three cheers for HODL!!!!!!

Quote from: Carra23 on April 23, 2014, 11:15:30 PM

Quote from: BitChick on April 23, 2014, 10:54:27 PM

Quote from: Carra23 on April 23, 2014, 10:33:04 PM

Quote from: BitChick on April 23, 2014, 10:19:07 PM

Quote from: cech4204a on April 23, 2014, 10:12:50 PM

Quote from: BitChick on April 23, 2014, 09:50:20 PM

Quote from: windjc on April 23, 2014, 09:47:00 PM

This board is so bullish its amazing. A testimony to bitcoin indeed.

I don't know to make of it. On one hand, all this bullish sentiment should mean that we haven't capitulated yet.

But I know that's not a complete picture.

Some of us have learned how to be bullish at all times. Grin

Learn me how, i need that optimizm

Hold for a year and after a couple of bull runs you will understand how Bitcoin is the "honey badger" of money. Wink

It was a real pleasure seeing you urging everyone not to sell as Bitcoin came down slowly from 800.

With Bitcoin reaching new all time highs once or twice a year I think it is wise to hold, even for those that purchased at $800 or even $1200.

However, if you want to sell go ahead! Wink

No, thank you, I sold at 800 and recently at 550.

Carra23: You must have some kind of inferiority complex if you get pleasure out of seeing some other people do worse than you, and then you feel some kind of need to "rub it in"

I doubt that you are particularly omniscent. And, if it is true, being in fiat may NOT be the right way to go... that is if you are all in fiat or if you are planning to reinvest in BTC.

Quote from: pjviitas on April 23, 2014, 11:50:38 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 23, 2014, 11:45:08 PM

Quote from: Carra23 on April 23, 2014, 11:15:30 PM

Quote from: BitChick on April 23, 2014, 10:54:27 PM

Quote from: Carra23 on April 23, 2014, 10:33:04 PM

Quote from: BitChick on April 23, 2014, 10:19:07 PM

Quote from: cech4204a on April 23, 2014, 10:12:50 PM

Quote from: BitChick on April 23, 2014, 09:50:20 PM

Quote from: windjc on April 23, 2014, 09:47:00 PM

This board is so bullish its amazing. A testimony to bitcoin indeed.

I don't know to make of it. On one hand, all this bullish sentiment should mean that we haven't capitulated yet.

But I know that's not a complete picture.

Some of us have learned how to be bullish at all times. Grin

Learn me how, i need that optimizm

Hold for a year and after a couple of bull runs you will understand how Bitcoin is the "honey badger" of money. Wink

It was a real pleasure seeing you urging everyone not to sell as Bitcoin came down slowly from 800.

With Bitcoin reaching new all time highs once or twice a year I think it is wise to hold, even for those that purchased at $800 or even $1200.

However, if you want to sell go ahead! Wink

No, thank you, I sold at 800 and recently at 550.

Carra23: You must have some kind of inferiority complex if you get pleasure out of seeing some other people do worse than you, and then you feel some kind of need to "rub it in"

I doubt that you are particularly omniscent. And, if it is true, being in fiat may NOT be the right way to go... that is if you are all in fiat or if you are planning to reinvest in BTC.

what's the big deal...let the guy make some money off bitcoin...last time I checked making a buck is still legal in the western world.

Did anyone say that there is anything wrong with making a buck?

Quote from: Carra23 on April 23, 2014, 11:55:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 23, 2014, 11:45:08 PM

I doubt that you are particularly omniscent. And, if it is true, being in fiat may NOT be the right way to go... that is if you are all in fiat or if you are planning to reinvest in BTC.

Not all. I stagger my trades, and you do not know which is top or bottom.

I am rubbing it in because this place was full of posts attacking anybody who tried give a sensible point. I use the various analysis given here and the charts posted, and all the abuse means some posters may not have posted. It also some foolish ones stupidly buy in because you have pages after pages of pictures of trains.

There is NOTHING wrong with trains... and there is NOTHING wrong with sensible posts.

I would NOT classify your last post of "ha ha ha, i did better than you," as a sensible or even a useful post.

But YOU are going to do what you are going to do, and surely, if you have a reasonable prediction about the direction of the market (before it happens), then I am sure plenty of posters here would be interested to hear what you have to say. If you are merely bragging after the fact, then I do NOT see what purpose that serves, except possibly just an attempt to incite or to insult other posters.

Quote from: windjc on April 24, 2014, 02:36:48 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 24, 2014, 01:31:31 AM

Quote from: seleme on April 24, 2014, 01:00:07 AM

What's up guys, are perma bears getting nervous yet?

Is it time to buy, buy, buy? Grin

they should be nervous

its impossible to say the trend has reversed until it clearly has, i'm thinking things will become way clearer in about 48hours

I foresee a melt up to 500+ in < 8hours, then volume will start to pick up and we will have our blast off targeting 590-610, baby steps on the long journey to the moon.

I see no reason we won't see this, I haven't been paying attention for a while ( was AFK for a week! Grin

) , but to me it seems the news has been gr8, appearly china unbanned bitcoin!? is this true? in any case, I'd say < 500$ reflects china pretty much priced out, so ya price has only one way to go now. Cool

Your comments are interesting Adam. Because if we go back to very beginning of this famous thread, there are many posts where you give advice that a reversal begins by high volume red candles. In fact, you state that low volume read candles are more bearish and less likely to result in a reversal. Yet, here we are, and its been months since we have a really high volume red candle.

That is so 2013!!! NOW it is 2014. Welcome to the future!

Quote from: windjc on April 24, 2014, 05:26:47 AM

Houbi is like a rusty bucket with a patched hole in the bottom that is a now just a slow leak.

Edit: But on the bright side Bitcoin would make a great stable currency this week. Hooray for that!

I would rather be stable in the $750 to $850 range - even for the next year would be o.k. with me.

Quote from: windjc on April 24, 2014, 05:32:49 AM

Let's play a game:

"Things more exciting than Houbi."

#1. A rusty bucket
#2. Paint drying
#3. Grass growing
#4. Meditation
#5. Nail clipping

Feel free to join in the fun by naming things you think are more exciting than Houbi.

NOW>>>> as I type, ... volume is picking up on Stamp and bitfinex and the others are beginning to follow.... The price is dropping.. maybe $5 in the last 20 minutes... HOWEVER... .how low will it go? $470? or $450? Maybe I will buy a little bit if it goes below $450

Quote from: ChrisML on April 24, 2014, 06:32:01 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 24, 2014, 05:55:12 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 24, 2014, 05:32:49 AM

Let's play a game:

"Things more exciting than Houbi."

#1. A rusty bucket
#2. Paint drying
#3. Grass growing
#4. Meditation
#5. Nail clipping

Feel free to join in the fun by naming things you think are more exciting than Houbi.

NOW>>>> as I type, ... volume is picking up on Stamp and bitfinex and the others are beginning to follow.... The price is dropping.. maybe $5 in the last 20 minutes... HOWEVER... .how low will it go? $470? or $450? Maybe I will buy a little bit if it goes below $450

You haven't bought anything the last 4 times it was at or below $450?

My practice has been to buy BTC in increments over time, and I bought several times while the price was below $450.

my buying increments look like this.... if that means anything.

452.70
446.44
439.82
428.68
418.60
456.35
453.61
444.93
427.50
412.00
341.19
406.26
394.59
440.89
413.60
416.04
454.65

I ran out of fiat while the price was in the $300s, so I was only able to buy a little bit of BTC while the price was in the $300 price range. I am O.k. if the price does NOT go below $450 again, but that price just happens to be my next approximate buy point.

Of course, I were to be fairly certain that BTC prices will fall lower than $450, then I will wait for the lower price to buy at the lowest possible price, but as we know waiting too long can sometimes be a mistake because the lowest price dips seem to come fairly rapidly and do NOT last too long... and even if they last for a period of time we cannot be certain how long it will last or whether the price will be going lower.

Quote from: TERA on April 24, 2014, 06:33:23 AM

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it? And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

Quote from: el_rlee on April 24, 2014, 07:04:02 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 24, 2014, 06:54:54 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 24, 2014, 06:33:23 AM

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it? And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

Certainly not.

A negative Bitcoin price is highly unlikely Wink

On a more serious note: Mining profits are still too good for the ones having access to hardware so the selling will continue until the difficulty catches up...

How would we know the percentage of freshly mined bitcoins that are being dumped onto the market?

I can see that dumping happening with some of the big pools to some degree in order to weed out some of the competition by selling while they are still making a profit and accordingly discouraging some of the smaller operations that are NOT making a profit.

However, contrarily, I would think that the miners as a whole may have an incentive to be strategic with their dumping and to hold their BTC for a while in order that the price would go up... which it seems that we are on the low end, regarding BTC prices, at this point.

So they have competing and conflicting incentives that each of them are going to come to different calculations regarding how to proceed to maximize their own personal profits.

Quote from: TERA on April 24, 2014, 07:09:59 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 24, 2014, 06:51:25 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 24, 2014, 06:33:23 AM

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article. Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained?

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 24, 2014, 06:54:54 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 24, 2014, 06:33:23 AM

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it? And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

The trend as a whole is being driven by one simple thing - a lack of buyers and volume (and perhaps a pile of a million coins that need to be dumped, but we're not sure of that). Supply > Demand, and has been since January when the big Chinese players left. It is the waves inbetween that are being pronounced via good news and bad news, but neither of them affect the larger trend.

I do agree that the trend seems to have gotten weaker ("running out of steam") on that last leg down. However, it is not technically over. The end of the trend should be marked by another high volume wave down which does not establish a lower trading range, like a W pattern.

I do appreciate your various technical explanations; however, even you seem to contradict yourself from time to time when, for example, last week you were suggesting that you thought that we may be coming out of this. Additionally, your extension of the last line could actually turn into a "w" rather than a continued downtrend - especially b/c it seems that there has been considerable difficulties in getting the price to go down further in the last week or so. These bear whales are NOT going to want to wait forever to attempt to push the price down further, if that is what they want to do. They need to act soon while they have the potential momentum - otherwise they are going to lose the downward momentum when buyers start to flood into the space out of concern that they do NOT want to miss the upward train.

Quote from: windjc on April 24, 2014, 08:44:08 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on April 24, 2014, 08:40:04 AM

Dont you think we are seeing the effects of no fiat going into the Chinese exchanges? The Chinese deadlines have passed and now we are seeing this effect, maybe its a dampened one due to people selling in anticipation...

Does anyone notice that Houbi traders will move their bids up as the bid prices are falling? Instead of letting the falling price come to their bids, they move their bids up like they are afraid that the price will stop moving towards them.

Its so weird.

It's bullish.

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 24, 2014, 08:28:02 PM

Quote from: souspeed on April 24, 2014, 08:25:56 PM

Quote from: tempestb on April 24, 2014, 08:20:09 PM

I was thinking about MTGox's 200,000 Bitcoins they found in that old wallet or whatever it is. At some point the bankruptcy is going to sell those coins and dump them on the market in one big go turning them into FIAT. There is no way I see them distributing out those coins as Bitcoins. What will that do to the market? If they released all 200,000+ coins at one time? Seems to me that's exactly what they are going to do.

Why would they dump them?

I expect them to sell these coins for the highest potential value.
Meaning mostly off-exchange and slowly over time.

why would they care about the price they get

they are selling it, only to redistribute to other people, they dont care about other people....

i think they will just have mark send the BTC, it will be the cheapest solution for them

Every court will have its own outlined procedure for this kind of idea to liquidate assets.

Likely they have a goal to achieve as much as they can within the timeline parameters, which may mean breaking the total into chunks (if it is believed that breaking into chunks would achieve a higher return), but likely the process would allow for bids rather than dumping on the exchange.

They certainly do NOT seem to care about the good of the various customers or what may be best for bitcoin - b/c fairly quickly, they rejected the non-liquidation option to allow the take over of GOX by competent financial people.

The various vested interests, including customers and other stake holders have opportunities to attempt to persuade the court with submissions of persuasive arguments. Who knows whether the court will chose to deviate from any of its standard procedures and make exceptions regarding how to liquidate b/c in the court's view this case could require some exceptional procedure(s).

Quote from: Raystonn on April 24, 2014, 09:38:14 PM

Quote from: Raystonn on April 24, 2014, 09:30:59 PM

Imagine the buy wall as a line of Spartans, shields connected. Push forward! PUSH!

Those participating in the smaller buy wall at 490.10, join the 491.10 buy wall now. We're going to walk this buy wall into the bastard sellers one step at a time, and shove it down their throats. This is BITCOIN!

I'll rest assured, when we go past $560... which may take a while..

Quote from: pandacoin on April 24, 2014, 11:02:21 PM

I told you! Price is raising.

I frequently find it funny... if NOT strange when people want to say I told you so.

NONE of us know which F***n direction this price is going. .. We may have momentum in one direction or another, but a major pump or dump (which NO one can predict, except for the person(s) doing the pumping or dumping) will likely change the direction to the opposite.

I will NOT begin to think that we are out of the bearish woods, until we pass $560-ish....

Quote from: Gatekeeper on April 25, 2014, 01:01:51 AM

Quote from: derpinheimer on April 25, 2014, 12:40:21 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 25, 2014, 12:39:09 AM

Rally fail.

Pretty much, but there is a chance that if the following dump doesnt take it under $490 that we go up more.

there is no dump and the big bid walls are still there on stamp

rally fail? more like bear troll fail

Bid walls may be fake, and merely a tactic to cause some people to believe that the price is going up.. .. then it is much more effective when the bid walls get pulled and all of the manipulator's orders are filled below the fake bid walls. I would NOT put a whole hell-a-va lot of faith into bid walls being actually real.

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 25, 2014, 01:28:53 AM

Quote from: Gatekeeper on April 25, 2014, 01:01:51 AM

Quote from: derpinheimer on April 25, 2014, 12:40:21 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 25, 2014, 12:39:09 AM

Rally fail.

Pretty much, but there is a chance that if the following dump doesnt take it under $490 that we go up more.

there is no dump and the big bid walls are still there on stamp

rally fail? more like bear troll fail

Yeah, i'm a bear Cheesy

He is a little doggie with a birdie body or a big birdie with a doggie's head.

Quote from: chessnut on April 25, 2014, 04:30:00 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 25, 2014, 04:25:01 AM

Classic butthurt bull.

You bought at 486 and made no profit. I sold at 475 bought at 480. Sold at 492 and am banking.

Where is your EW "science" now? God, no wonder so many people have you on ignore.

EW cannot predict news events.... it can tell when weasles like you are done bleeding though.

why don't you do me a favour, and ignore me too?

I think that Windjc values your opinion, even though, he is in denial.

Quote from: windjc on April 25, 2014, 04:42:47 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 25, 2014, 04:37:48 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 25, 2014, 04:30:00 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 25, 2014, 04:25:01 AM

Classic butthurt bull.

You bought at 486 and made no profit. I sold at 475 bought at 480. Sold at 492 and am banking.

Where is your EW "science" now? God, no wonder so many people have you on ignore.

EW cannot predict news events.... it can tell when weasles like you are done bleeding though.

why don't you do me a favour, and ignore me too?

I think that Windjc values your opinion, even though, he is in denial.

I value peoples opinions that make robust cases. I asked Chessnut for this yesterday because his posts are so 1 dimensional. He and you just responded with insults.

Yes. I believe that I saw your request for more specifics, and it seems to me that You are trying to ask Chessnut to be more specific than is necessary. You have your theory and methodologies and he has his, and each of you have stated various aspects of your methodologies and thoughts- If there is a difference of opinion about the prediction, then what else needs to be said?

O.k. NO problem if you want to say, "I told you so," here or there, but in the end, it really does NOT matter so much. You can go make your millions of dollars based on your vision, no problem.

I have learned some concepts about attempting to read the market from both you and from Chessnut, and I take any of this discussion with a grain of salt b/c NO ONE, except for the whales really can consistently make large amounts of money in the short term on trading BTC when there is both whale and news manipulation... Likely that most of the money is going to be made by hedging long, rather than trading

However, to each his own, and if you consistently make more than the average day trader, congratulations.... .. .and thanks for sharing any tips with the rest of us reading this thread.

Quote from: rpietila on April 25, 2014, 06:17:20 AM

Quote from: njcarlos on April 25, 2014, 06:09:24 AM

Pretty soon everyone will realize that even $300 is a very likely level of stability, if not mid-200s. The sooner everyone realizes that there's just no basis for this valuation (or the capital in-flights to support it), the better.

Yes, it truly is as if nobody would be able to see more than a few days into the future, and that the price today would have no correlation to expectations of long term value (and only be a product of buying and selling pressure in a given day, in exchanges that lack liquidity).

It is somewhat irritating in the short term but gives an opportunity in the next bubble. I might aim to increase my number of coins not by the usual 10-20% but by 50% with a little more aggressive play. Is anyone with me? PPT? Wink

I know that you MAY NOT care, but I would like to buy at the lowest point... Maybe $420-ish? Anyhow, if you are going to buy several thousand coins, then you should let us go first... b/c your buying may cause the prices to go up a lot, that is if you are buying on any of the exchanges..

Quote from: njcarlos on April 25, 2014, 06:42:30 AM

Quote from: giletto on April 25, 2014, 06:39:09 AM

I guess the bold sentence qualified you more.

No, it made his attempt at making me look like I don't think BTC is worth shit completely void. If I thought it wasn't worth $35, why would I have held to mid-3 figures? Why would I think it's worth $300 and not $1? It's called sensibility and observation, something conflicts with the permabulls sacrosanct predictions in the Church of Bitcoin.

Sounds as if you are butt hurt b/c you sold in the $300s, when the price went to $1,100s and a lot of guys made more money than you.

That's o.k. No BIG dea... we each come to our own conclusions about when to buy and when to sell. So if you decided to sell BTC, then you can leave this conversation and this thread, no?

Or do you just want to stick around and attempt to bring the market down or to spread fFUD so that you can feel better?

Quote from: njcarlos on April 25, 2014, 07:31:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 25, 2014, 07:26:45 AM

Sounds as if you are butt hurt b/c you sold in the $300s, when the price went to $1,100s and a lot of guys made more money than you.

That's o.k. No BIG dea... we each come to our own conclusions about when to buy and when to sell. So if you decided to sell BTC, then you can leave this conversation and this thread, no?

Or do you just want to stick around and attempt to bring the market down or to spread fFUD so that you can feel better?

I'm butt hurt? I guess you're one of the slow kids. I voice an opinion and got railed by wannabe bullies on the internet calling me a retard and attempting to hurt my e-feelings by proclaiming they were going to ignore me. I guess if you call me getting lambasted because I made an innocuous comment that was obvious opinion being butt hurt, yea. I'm totally butt hurt. And no, I didn't sell in the $300s.

Well maybe I misread your posts? I see no reason for any posters to brag.. and even for posters to come out with guns ablazing in a quasi-anonymous forum.

When posters make extreme claims, then other posters are going to get irritated. I thought that some of your postings were extreme and attempts at being insulting.

I would rather share actual information and real predictions rather than posturing(s), but maybe that's just me? Wink

Ultimately, it is up to you whether you prefer to engage in an adult dialogue, even if or when other people are throwing around derogatory comments.

Quote from: rpietila on April 25, 2014, 07:44:14 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 25, 2014, 07:15:45 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 25, 2014, 06:17:20 AM

I might aim to increase my number of coins not by the usual 10-20% but by 50% with a little more aggressive play. Is anyone with me? PPT? Wink

I know that you MAY NOT care, but I would like to buy at the lowest point... Maybe $420-ish? Anyhow, if you are going to buy several thousand coins, then you should let us go first... b/c your buying may cause the prices to go up a lot, that is if you are buying on any of the exchanges..

No I am not in a position to do that now. The market is stable and going more long would not be prudent. It's good to have cash always with which to buy at dips. This is not a dip, this is an accumulation zone, and my accumulation was done in February already.

I mean I could play more in the top formation phase, even go short if there is a service that would allow doing it with 10,000 bitcoins.

Seems that I may have misunderstood you... b/c I thought that you were considering buying more BTC b/c you considered the price to be so cheap at the moment, and maybe you were considering helping to push the BTC prices up.

Also, if you had been following some variation of the SSS system, then possibly, you would have sufficient fiat at your disposal in order to accomplish the buying up to possibly a few thousand BTC.

I'm just small potatoes. I could maybe buy 10-20 additional BTC, but I prefer NOT to stretch my finances that much (or to over extend myself into BTC too much), so I was merely considering buying 3-4 additional BTC - depending on how low the prices get.

I am getting a little nervous right now b/c the price is getting close to my buying trigger point. I would prefer to buy below $450, but I would rather just buy instead of missing the boat, if it is NOT going to go any lower. Also, I would prefer lower BTC prices to buy, if I become convinced that BTC prices will go lower, I may chance waiting some more. I had been thinking there may be an additional attempts to dump over the weekend.. but maybe it will be too late to wait that long, and BTC prices will spring back into an upward direction?

Quote from: njcarlos on April 25, 2014, 07:42:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 25, 2014, 07:41:09 AM

Well maybe I misread your posts? I see no reason for any posters to brag.. and even for posters to come out with guns ablazing in a quasi-anonymous forum.

When posters make extreme claims, then other posters are going to get irritated. I thought that some of your postings were extreme and attempts at being insulting.

I would rather share actual information and real predictions rather than posturing(s), but maybe that's just me? Wink

Ultimately, it is up to you whether you prefer to engage in an adult dialogue, even if or when other people are throwing around derogatory comments.

I know, I know. The internet is srs bizniss.

It's whatever you make of it... There is a lot of goofing off in this thread, and no big deal, if posters are on a similar wave of mutual respect or whatever then it will be easier to work the humor into the back and forth dialogue.

On the other hand, if posters are competing with each other or throwing out insults, then those kinds of communications can easily devolve to be fun for neither... or maybe just fun for one of the two?

Quote from: njcarlos on April 25, 2014, 07:42:52 AM

I didn't brag, and I didn't make an extreme claim. If you think my opinion that a fair valuation of BTC is $300 is extreme, then I don't know what to say but let it go. No need to call me a retard or ignore me.

Possibly, it is the way the message is communicated, rather than the message.

If you are coming out making assertions like fair value is $x, then that could seem pretty ridiculous to others, if you do NOT explain some of the recent history and various developments. $300 seems pretty extreme on the low-side in my thinking, and I would probably put fair current valuation in the $750-$850 arena... Though I am NOT stuck with that opinion, if we were to discuss how we arrive at our calculations with a fair understanding of the history and the various developments and investments into BTC and also the fact that the market may price BTC based on future expectations including likely regulation(s) and BTC's ability to take over certain payment system functions or storage of value functions or even public ledger functions.

If you spurt out claims of $300 without providing what would seem plausible accounting of the facts, then other posters are going to get frustrated and call you names or ignore you may be easier. I am fairly doubtful that you are wanting to engage in a meaningful dialogue, but NEVER say NEVER... eh he hehehe...

Quote from: Hunyadi on April 25, 2014, 07:50:39 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 25, 2014, 04:21:32 AM

Quote from: Raystonn on April 25, 2014, 04:19:29 AM

Cash requires an in-person transaction with someone who has BTC. This doesn't scale and risks those involved. We need something else.

coinffeine.com

P2P-exchanges are coming online soon. After that, Bitcoin will be very hard to control by TPTB. I hope these kinds of panics will be history after that....maybe not

I am am looking forward to some of these decentralized type exchanges, too; however, I think that it will take a little while to get the bugs out of them. Nonetheless, I look forward to thse kinds of developments that may resolve some of the stealing and the manipulation and whatever else they are meant to solve.

Quote from: rpietila on April 25, 2014, 08:35:22 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 25, 2014, 08:09:46 AM

Also, if you had been following some variation of the SSS system, then possibly, you would have sufficient fiat at your disposal in order to accomplish the buying up to possibly a few thousand BTC.

Yes, but in my thinking if it goes low enough, I can buy 5,000 or 10,000 more coins. That would affect the market Wink

It does not really matter because if it turns decisively, I'll be rich. If it does not, I'll be OK nevertheless.

Oh, remember that I was talking like this when I sold at 700 and price was at 1100 and everybody was pressuring me that I made a bad trade Grin

The following 2 months I was a bear and still everyone ridiculed me.

Now I'm a bull for 2 months already, and all scorn me (price is up 10% from the point I turned bull in 2014-2-25).

Being contrarian is the way to make money.

Yep... I read some of your old posts (mostly in the SSS thread but also several in your diary thread) , and certainly, I could see from where you were coming in some of your contemporary prediction posts, and one of the risks of making timely prediction posts will be that there are going to be uncertainties as to when or how much to buy/sell exactly... or determining how far above or below the trendline you believe that BTC prices are and the extent to which such BTC prices may or may NOT be sustainable.

And, sometimes, there is also going to be some reassessment or maybe even shifting of the price prediction model. We are all working with incomplete information; however, some posters have different analysis tools in their background and some plans work better than others to achieve the various goals of the person affected by his/her investment choices.

Quote from: niothor on April 25, 2014, 08:35:34 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 25, 2014, 08:30:25 AM

Quote from: GameStarter on April 25, 2014, 08:18:38 AM

Quote from: niothor on April 25, 2014, 08:13:14 AM

Let me guess before I start reading 50+ pages... China again?

yes China give us back our freedom after 10 May

No. Huobi will find a different way to accept deposits which will be maybe banned after a few weeks including a new deadline. Of course.

I think that we all can agree this will probably happen , I'm looking at something like 90% chance , including the panic dump on the new ban.

I agree that will happen, so long as NO real major investor does NOT come into the bitcoin space. On the other hand, if we get some news regarding some major investor into the bitcoin space... then the Chinese news will NOT affect bitcoin prices so much.

I doubt that BTC prices are going to completely detach from Chinese involvement, b/c the Chinese are going to remain in bitcoin. They just may become a lesser factor over time. Hopefully.. b/c they do seem to have a tendency to manipulate through their ambiguities Whether purposefully or NOT)

Quote from: Cassius on April 25, 2014, 08:41:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 25, 2014, 08:29:01 AM

Quote from: Hunyadi on April 25, 2014, 07:50:39 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 25, 2014, 04:21:32 AM

Quote from: Raystonn on April 25, 2014, 04:19:29 AM

Cash requires an in-person transaction with someone who has BTC. This doesn't scale and risks those involved. We need something else.

coinffeine.com

P2P-exchanges are coming online soon. After that, Bitcoin will be very hard to control by TPTB. I hope these kinds of panics will be history after that....maybe not

I am am looking forward to some of these decentralized type exchanges, too; however, I think that it will take a little while to get the bugs out of them. Nonetheless, I look forward to thse kinds of developments that may resolve some of the stealing and the manipulation and whatever else they are meant to solve.

They look awesome: true bitcoin-style solution to the problems of centralisation.
I can't quite work out how the bank transfers will actually happen without the third party. If it does work well, presumably the Chinese will flood in...

My understanding is that there are a variety of possibilities but one is form of marking transactions and using bitcoins as collateral.. anyhow, there would be no need to change in and out of actual fiat once you have bitcoin (except at the very beginning or the end end if you were to want to cash out for fiat or buy more BTC with Fiat - but you would use your regular channels for that. I'm sure that there will be varying competitive models, in the beginning.

Quote from: pblack4 on April 25, 2014, 09:30:21 AM

Without positive news on mtgox front, adoption will slowly fade and bitcoin value will drop to single digit. Only savegox or similar proposal and the discovery of what really happened at mtgox can save bitcoin and resume its run to $10K-$100K

I agree with the portion of your statement that savegox would probably have been better for bitcoin and crypto currencies than court managed liquidation of GOX; however, I do NOT agree with your cataclysmic prediction of some major price reduction in bitcoin b/c of that liquidation decision (and potential problem of NOT resolving other major issues regarding what happended to the other 600K coins).. You are talking crazy when you reach those kinds of outrageous / double digits types of conclusions.

Quote from: PoolMinor on April 25, 2014, 06:00:07 PM

I would hate to say it, but I believe this price drop is due to the poll.
Please, Adam, stop posting polls with finite pricing. It would be more effective if the question was not a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The next poll should be very limited in information, and definitely not have specific price points that are obvious goals for some.

Yeah... right. You really believe that this thread has any meaningful effect on BTC exchange prices?

Quote from: roslinpl on April 25, 2014, 07:53:15 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 25, 2014, 07:42:42 PM

Quote from: PoolMinor on April 25, 2014, 06:00:07 PM

I would hate to say it, but I believe this price drop is due to the poll.
Please, Adam, stop posting polls with finite pricing. It would be more effective if the question was not a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The next poll should be very limited in information, and definitely not have specific price points that are obvious goals for some.

Yeah... right. You really believe that this thread has any meaningful effect on BTC exchange prices?

IMO. None.
But perhaps few members did panic sell after reading this thread :-)

Certainly, it is going to affect some people's decisions about whether to buy or sell and how much and when... but really, posters sometimes seem to give too much weight to the significance of their posts here.

I doubt that the real movers and/or shakers of the market and/or overall sentiment is affected greatly by this thread - even though this thread is one of the data points that may be used by some to measure market sentiments.

Quote from: kryptopojken on April 25, 2014, 11:03:33 PM

risto are you the one buying?

I suspect he is NOT buying at any point above $370 - just speculation on my part.

But Risto is NOT going to disclose, exactly what is his buy point... which is fine. NO problem with that.

Quote from: TERA on April 25, 2014, 11:31:11 PM

No this is actually NEW China news this time: They want to take down recharge codes and other deposit options, and before it was just bank transfers. For the first time, the situation is actually significantly worse now than it was in was in December. For a while we thought that Chinese exchanges would be able to continue doing volume by using alternative payment methods but now it is turning into a complete cut-off. I bet btcchina's ATMs will be taken down.

Your rendition of what is going on in China does NOT make very much sense- especially considering the extent to which bitcoin mining businesses are operating out of china, as well.

China is going to be o.k. with the various bitcoin mining operations - whther related to the manufacturing of equipment and the actual mining itself? Just seems contradictory and illogical.

Also, isn't there a little irony in the supposed May 10 date, which happens to coincide with the Global Bitcoin summit in Shanghai.... All seems kind of weird.

Quote from: TERA on April 26, 2014, 12:31:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 26, 2014, 12:24:54 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 25, 2014, 11:31:11 PM

No this is actually NEW China news this time: They want to take down recharge codes and other deposit options, and before it was just bank transfers. For the first time, the situation is actually significantly worse now than it was in was in December. For a while we thought that Chinese exchanges would be able to continue doing volume by using alternative payment methods but now it is turning into a complete cut-off. I bet btcchina's ATMs will be taken down.

Your rendition of what is going on in China does NOT make very much sense- especially considering the extent to which bitcoin mining businesses are operating out of china, as well.

China is going to be o.k. with the various bitcoin mining operations - whther related to the manufacturing of equipment and the actual mining itself? Just seems contradictory and illogical.

Also, isn't there a little irony in the supposed May 10 date, which happens to coincide with the Global Bitcoin summit in Shanghai.... All seems kind of weird.

Not sure how this is relevant. Yeah PBOC might not care about the mining operations. If you look at the news story, most of what the central banker expresses concerns about is the rampant market manipulation on chinese exchanges. He states how China's entry into bitcoin was inorganic and had nothing to do with bitcoin adoption or development. He describes how Chinese bitcoin trading is a battle between "makers" and is a "bloodbath" for the normal investor which gets destroyed as collateral damage. I have to agree with him there and appreciate what he is doing. So their main focus is to take down any kind of exchanges which do significant volume, to protect every day investors. If bitcoin was truly adopted then it wouldn't need these types of exchanges - it's all a game.

There seems to be a bit of a contradiction, but we will see how it plays out, and surely, I am NOT completely surprised by contradiction(s) that may exist.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 26, 2014, 02:57:34 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on April 26, 2014, 02:26:23 AM

I understand that withdrawing BTC from Huobi and such is still possible? If so, I do not believe we can have Gox-style decoupling - arbitrage, a.k.a. dumping Chinese coins on Bitsamp and such is still possible. It was complete inability to withdraw anything from Gox that coused its prices to decouple.

That is my understanding too.

Quote from: dreamspark on April 26, 2014, 02:28:11 AM

Yes but arbing only works for so long when you cant get money back into a Chinese exchange.

Even if all "easy" deposit channels are cut off, I imagine that there will be ways to get money into the exchanges, e.g. taking cash to their offices. Perhaps even after May 10.

Arbitrage seems to be a lucrative activity for those who have the skills and tools, so they have enough motivation and money to find a way.

Why would this NOT create a private courier system? would that work? Send the fiat to the courier, and the courier delivers the fiat to the exchange. Does seem a bit inconvenient way to convert back and forth to/from Fiat and BTC.

Quote from: rpietila on April 26, 2014, 04:15:09 PM

Quote from: roslinpl on April 26, 2014, 04:01:33 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 26, 2014, 03:59:56 PM

Quote from: podyx on April 26, 2014, 03:57:03 PM

windjc is wealthy?

not for long, if he takes the bet Cheesy

This is great bet

Maybe he can bet with me too?

I want $50 free money Cheesy

Before anything else happens, we must agree on escrow, and both send the bet money to him.

Then finish the rules of the bet, which may require changes if price changes now for example. Also the 2 days is important. (windjc can also transfer money if he wants). Typically it's just too difficult to agree on things, but this is quite promising <thumbsup>

I think that you guys have NOT agreed to several of the terms, yet, and there cannot be NO bet without clarification of the terms, and escrow is one of the terms. You have not even agreed whether 30 or 90 days, and 30 days seems more than enough time to allow the bet to run - however, it does NOT matter what I think if you two are willing to agree to 90 days, then so be it.

I do NOT understand why 2 days is necessary to solidify, but it may just be that you are hedging your bet which is fine if a person can recognize ways to hedge.

Of course, the bet could be completely in BTC.. with a dollar value so for example the equivalent of $50k valued on x date in BTC either way... but it sounds as if you are talking about much greater amounts. I am NOT clear about whether it was 50BTC or 100BTC.. which would or $250k or $500k depending on the value of the BTC.

Quote from: Dabs on April 26, 2014, 04:53:17 PM

Who needs escrow? I can do it, but only the BTC part. If you need me to fix it to fiat, then I'll have to exchange it first, then buy back the BTC 30 or 90 days later. (I have high limits on the exchange in my sig.)

I doubt that you would need to convert... b/c once the terms of the bet are agreed to and hopefully understood by everyone, then each party would transfer to you the equivalent of BTC, as if that party were to lose the bet, and then you would hold those amounts until the terms of the bet runs. Should be able to do all of that with BTC, even though the BTC amount(s) could be measured in the equivalent of fiat.

Quote from: oda.krell on April 26, 2014, 07:51:48 PM

Quote from: windjc on April 26, 2014, 07:23:37 PM

Look. The bet is for 30 days. Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hedge his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing. In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.

In fact, if we are no longer in a bear market it matters not if its 30 days or 90 days or 4 years, as we will not see 435. However, if are bear, opposite to what Rpietila suggests, then 30 days gives me a chance to prove him wrong and win the bet.

90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.

30 days is fair.

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Can Rpietila also agree to real risk and honor? We will find out. I expect him to make excuses and not join the bet.

+1

At 30 days the bet is already at a real risk of ending in a tie. At 90 days, under the original conditions, that's almost guaranteed.

The way I see it, this bet is about making a rather strong, unconditional statement in the middle of a crucial time for the market. At 30 days, it does that just fine.

EDIT: I obviously have no say in this, it's not my bet. But since this is discussed in a public place, you should expect it to be discussed.

I believe 30 days is more than enough time to call Rpietila on his request for a bet. Initially Rpietila's bet request was somewhat general concerning the conditions and the timeline, which Windjc, narrowed some of those terms.

I like the idea of charity contribution - and maybe it shoudl be better that the charity goes towards some knid of BTC infrastructure or something BTC related (besides a BTC mansion); however, I doubt that the bet needs to be so large as $50K in order to prove the point.

If someone, such as Rpietila, is asserting that we will "never" see $435 again, then he certainly should feel confident that will NOT occur in the next 30 days. If the bet is for a smaller amount, let's say $5k or less, then there should be considerable less incentive to manipulate the market (and on honor both parties are already asserting that they will NOT engage in BTC manipulation tactics - which could be included and defined in the bet terms - eg no buying or selling within a certain amount during the time parameters of the bet).

It seems tome that you guys are very close - and really, you should NOT see a lack of balls, to bring down the amount of the bet - b/c the point seems to be putting some stake (not steak) and commitment into the short-term prediction - which does NOT need to be $50K, in order to be meaningful.

Quote from: dreamspark on April 26, 2014, 09:15:34 PM

$50k or 100 BTC isnt that meaningful when you have 20,000 BTC my friend. Its like 0.5% of your stash, I bet you would take a bet you thought you would win for .25BTC on a 50BTC stash.

My point is still valid, and I could give a shit whether a guy has $10 million in liquid assets or $10,000 in liquid assets.

The point of the bet seems to be to put some money where your mouth is, and you do NOT need to prove yourself with a $50K bet, especially when it seems that the $50k aspect of the bet may be getting in the way of making the bet. $5k remains a meaningful amount b/c it is meaningful to others, and some people could live for a year off of $5k.

Let's take the guy with $10,000 in liquid assets, he could still prove his point by betting $5 (0.05%) rather than by betting $50 (0.5%). And, don't tell me that the guys with $10 million are treating $50K the same as a guy with $10k is treating $50. That may be the same percentage (0.5%), but even well to do people are going to begin to put up some barriers when they are throwing around $50k here and there for quasi-random bets on an internet forum.

Part of my point is that the proposed $50k amount of the bet may be getting in the way of finalizing the terms of the bet, and that $50k amount really is NOT necessary, unless the guys are merely wanting to impress people with pompous big balls numbers, that distract from the main point.... which is to put "some" money where you mouth is... with clear terms that everyone can understand.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 27, 2014, 02:05:47 AM

Happy days are here again why exactly? I really want to know. What has changed?

I think it's improbable that China is done fucking the world markets until it shoots its wad right in Bitstamp's butthole. We have at least 3 potential goxxings on our hands because Huobi, BTC China and OK Coin are all sketchy volume-faking exchanges with very limited and diminishing sources of deposits. It doesn't matter if it's their fault or the PBoC or someone else. These exchanges are likely going to wither and die, crash out or go offshore. Markets will be rattled and you can either be in a position to profit, ride out the storm or get caught with your pants down.

China is a 50 ton battleship anchor on BTC price and will continue to be until the chain is broken. That doesn't make me happy, but pretending significant negative factors don't exist makes for poor investment strategy. So if there is something good that outweighs this Chinese clusterfuck, I'd love to hear about it, but don't tell me it isn't real or it's irrelevant.

So, if you were a betting man, you would be siding with Windjc about the $435 in the next 30 days? or do you believe the downfall and FUD spreading of china is gonna last longer than 30 days?

I agree with you that China remains a relevant factor.. and will continue to be a relevant factor, until some other more relevant factor drowns it out.. such as major investment entering into the market (pie in the sky? does NOT seem to be a long shot)...The existence of these three Fud-spreading China exchanges does seem rife for some kind of a GOX-like scandal, though.

Quote from: chessnut on April 27, 2014, 08:50:56 AM

Quote from: Cassius on April 27, 2014, 08:33:53 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 27, 2014, 08:05:18 AM

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight Cheesy

Bold. Size of bet?
You consider ~1000% appreciation more likely than ~15% depreciation?

just $20, for now. Ill add more when we pass $500 again.

..... I dont really consider it more likely, but I am counting on a lot of 'NO' bets. If I can get 2/1 odds i'd be happy, but I think Ill get much better odds with so many bears around Cheesy

imo there is a fair chance that capitulation has happened. if so, we are likely not going below $400 again. in that case $4000 before $400 is a fun bet

Grin

The odds are NOT established at the time that you place the bet? That would suck, if the odds keep changing forever... the odds have to lock in at some point when the betting is closed? like horse racing.. but this is a little different b/c the horses are running while the bets are coming in.. and they close the bets on the last lap or some silly shit like that?

In my eyes, it would be more fun, if the odds were locked in at the time that I were to place my bet.... if i were to bet... otherwise, the whole thing seems to be fucked to be betting on horses while the horses are running.

Quote from: rpietila on April 27, 2014, 09:12:15 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 27, 2014, 08:39:23 AM

I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.

Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.

Go check from post history who proposed the bet (me) and then choose yourself (10:1 to me if goes to 435 in 90 days). It is entirely ok to not participate in discussion, but to insist that I take a bet that I did not propose is.. well.. fitting for you.

If you do NOT like the current state of the bet, then you should propose counter-terms that you are willing to accept.. rather than complaining about Windjc's counter-terms.

If you really are serious about taking a bet then you have to work with possible options and it seems that Windjc's terms were within the bounds of reason... and probably tweakable.

Quote from: rpietila on April 27, 2014, 09:48:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 27, 2014, 09:39:29 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 27, 2014, 09:12:15 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 27, 2014, 08:39:23 AM

I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.

Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.

Go check from post history who proposed the bet (me) and then choose yourself (10:1 to me if goes to 435 in 90 days). It is entirely ok to not participate in discussion, but to insist that I take a bet that I did not propose is.. well.. fitting for you.

If you do NOT like the current state of the bet, then you should propose counter-terms that you are willing to accept.. rather than complaining about Windjc's counter-terms.

If you really are serious about taking a bet then you have to work with possible options and it seems that Windjc's terms were within the bounds of reason... and probably tweakable.

30 days does not embody the full epicness of saying "never" when we are talking about the trigger being only $20 below the the price today. Also I don't want to change my 10:1 leverage to an arbitrary $500 especially as both agree than in P(98%) it will be hit in 90 days anyway. These are the changes. It seems clear that once again if you are bullish on bitcoin, the best odds you get by buying it. If you are bearish, then you have a few weeks/months in the sun, and then you are replaced with a new generation. And I have seen many.

Why make it so complicated? If you do NOT like the $500 issue, then leave that out.. who cares about that.

The main question is whether or NOT you are willing to bet that BTC will NOT hit $435 in the next 30 days. You can pick any amount that you want to bet. Who fucking cares about odds. You only going to take a bet if you get odds, then change the amount to $430 or something that you are willing to live with with 1:1 odds. Maybe Windjc is willing to give odds, but the odds are NOT necessary, if you can agree to an amount and just keep it 1:1 - either BTC breaches that level in 30 days or it does NOT.

90 days is NOT needed - unless you are betting on something else, besides your original statement that BTC will never breach $435. If you go with 90 days, then you just have more time to lose the bet.

Personally, I agree with you Rptiela about the bullishness of bitcoin, but I am NOT very confident to make any bet that BTC will NOT breach a certain amount.. Maybe I would bet that it will NOT breach $300, but personally, I am NOT even sure about that.... But, who cares about me? I did NOT make the statement. You, Rptiela, made the statement that BTC would NOT breach $435, and said that you would put some money on it.. .. so go ahead and do it. Even though I do NOT agree with Windjc's conclusion about the direction of BTC prices, he seems reasonable in the framing of bets. It may be the case that the two of you cannot see eye to eye on the terms of the bet, but the subject does NOT necessarily need to be complicated with odds and a whole lot of various ambiguous terms.

Quote from: rpietila on April 27, 2014, 10:22:03 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 27, 2014, 10:09:44 AM

subject does NOT necessarily need to be complicated with odds and a whole lot of various ambiguous terms.

Now you are childish.

Poker players raise if they have 52/48 but not if it is 48/52.

I am calculating 90% odds for the certain outcome. If you think the odds are 95%, you should bet with me for +EV.

50% is obviously not same as 90%.

I am tired of writing to people who don't know about betting enough to justify opening their mouth but nevertheless do it.

So no bets here. The other thread will perhaps develop into a probability machine where you will always be able to check if your feeling corresponds with the majority, and bet with the ones who think the opposite.

I don't see why you feel compelled to call me childish or to suggest that I do NOT understand your bet merely b/c you want odds on the results. I believe that falls in the adhominem attack category.

Either BTC prices are going to breach $435 or they are NOT. Are you going to bet or NOT? Apparently NOT. That does NOT make me childish b/c I did NOT make such a statement about willing to bet that BTC would Never breach $435.

In previous posts, I also suggested that you just crank down the amount of the bet, if the amount bothers you, b/c aren't we talking about the principle of the statement that you are predicting a certain result - the money should just be a side issue, just to give assurance that you are willing to put some skin in the game... Heck you could make it .1BTC. Those are called gentlmen's bets, but apparently, it is beginning to seem to me that you just want to finagle out of the bet rather than following through with backing up your statement with some dinero. If you do NOT feel so confident in your statement, then you should modify your statement or NOT suggest you are planning to take some amorphous complicated bet that NO one understands, except for yourself. And that is NOT childish to NOT understand your statement that BTC would never breach $435, but you are NOT willing to commit to 30days to see what happens.

Edit: Actually, from what I have seen, you, Rpietila, have NOT proposed specific odds.. like 60/40 or whatever for $435... b/c maybe in the end, Windjc would be willing to give you some odds. A problem, however, comes, when you, Rpietila, used the word "never" which implies that you think 100%, so you should be more than willing to bet 50% odds when you make such a statement.

Quote from: akujin on April 27, 2014, 10:24:18 AM

I guess this would just end up like Pacquiao vs Mayweather Grin

That seems to be as good of an analogy as any.... b/c it seems that there are plenty of reasons to cause it to happen... but still it does NOT happen...

Quote from: tarmi on April 27, 2014, 10:56:58 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 27, 2014, 09:48:52 AM

30 days does not embody the full epicness of saying "never" when we are talking about the trigger being only $20 below the the price today. Also I don't want to change my 10:1 leverage to an arbitrary $500 especially as both agree than in P(98%) it will be hit in 90 days anyway. These are the changes. It seems clear that once again if you are bullish on bitcoin, the best odds you get by buying it. If you are bearish, then you have a few weeks/months in the sun, and then you are replaced with a new generation. And I have seen many.

the epicness is already embodied in saying "never".

so, the only question here is are we going to see another rpietila's failed prediction.

Personally, I have NO problem with predictions being wrong. Who cares?

I have a problem with someone saying that s/he will put money on his/her prediction, and then failing to commit to that course of action. People are wrong all the time, and NO BIG deal, but if you say that you are going to put some money on your prediction, then make it happen.. to solidify the amount of money and the timeline and the triggering mechanisms for the payout(s).. or at least make a good faith attempt at 1 BTC or something.. at least you put some money on it.. like you said you were willing to do....

If you do NOT follow through with your statement and your proposal to make a bet, then you are merely trolling this thread to make the other people in the thread to do all the work in formulating the hypothetical that you apparently had NO intention to follow through with.

Quote from: p0peji on April 27, 2014, 04:56:03 PM

Quote from: boumalo on April 27, 2014, 04:48:50 PM

Quote from: p0peji on April 27, 2014, 04:21:57 PM

I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding Grin

If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even

Your average cost is going down right now Tongue

If you bought at the dips, but lets think of the bulls (the ones who cry CCMF, with every bull-trap) who buy when there is somewhat of a price increase, your average cost per bitcoin would be around 800$

I fit the buying all the way down scenario fairly well. I began buying at about $1,200 b/c I got my first 1.24 BTC through Localbitcoins.com in the end of November 2013.

Mostly, ever since, I have been buying on the way down - even though i missed a few buying opportunities here and there to buy more when the price was lower and to refrain from buying when the price was higher.

Today my average buy-in price (including fees) is a little less than $605. I am on the edge of buying a little bit more - yet I am thinking we may get down to $420, the way this seems to be going.... not sure when to pull the trigger on the next buy, exactly.

If I panic sold today, I would be about 28% down (including fees).

Quote from: prophetx on April 27, 2014, 06:32:36 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 27, 2014, 06:18:55 PM

Quote from: p0peji on April 27, 2014, 04:56:03 PM

Quote from: boumalo on April 27, 2014, 04:48:50 PM

Quote from: p0peji on April 27, 2014, 04:21:57 PM

I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding Grin

If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even

Your average cost is going down right now Tongue

If you bought at the dips, but lets think of the bulls (the ones who cry CCMF, with every bull-trap) who buy when there is somewhat of a price increase, your average cost per bitcoin would be around 800$

I fit the buying all the way down scenario fairly well. I began buying at about $1,200 b/c I got my first 1.24 BTC through Localbitcoins.com in the end of November 2013.

Mostly, ever since, I have been buying on the way down - even though i missed a few buying opportunities here and there to buy more when the price was lower and to refrain from buying when the price was higher.

Today my average buy-in price (including fees) is a little less than $605. I am on the edge of buying a little bit more - yet I am thinking we may get down to $420, the way this seems to be going.... not sure when to pull the trigger on the next buy, exactly.

If I panic sold today, I would be about 28% down (including fees).

not a good idea...

What's NOT a good idea? What are you doing and have you done regarding your BTC investment long term and/or short term?

Quote from: spooderman on April 27, 2014, 06:42:53 PM

Did anyone make that bet with risto? Now is teh time!

He did NOT really make a bet. He spouted out some words that appeared to the average person to have been a proposal for a bet, but when push came to shove, Rpietila was NOT willing to back up his words with any dinero - only back up his words with more words that amounted to some lame excuses and mumbo jumbo.

Quote from: ZephramC on April 27, 2014, 09:13:09 PM

What would convince bears to be bulls and what would convince bulls to be bears?
For bears: How long should bitcoin price rise and to what price that we can call this dip over?
For bulls: How low must bitcoin fall before someone agree that it will never reach more than 1000USD again until several years from now?

There is always variation with any group, and there are more extremes.

For bears: How long should bitcoin price rise and to what price that we can call this dip over?

The extreme bears will continue to be such; however, if we were to sustain a very slow and incremental rising trendline from now until $3,000 over a few years, many of the bears would convert by the time we reach $1000 or so.

For bulls: How low must bitcoin fall before someone agree that it will never reach more than 1000USD again until several years from now?

The extreme bulls will continue to be such; however, if we were to sustain a very slow and incremental downward trendline from now until $50 over the next couple of years, many of the bulls would convert by the time we reach $150 or so.

Quote from: kryptopojken on April 27, 2014, 09:48:25 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on April 27, 2014, 09:41:46 PM

Did anything ever happen with the bet between rpietila and windjc???

2nd base but no penetration

Yeah, right>>>>

I would question whether they even got to 1st base, the way that they were dicking around. Cheesy

Quote from: prophetx on April 27, 2014, 10:28:09 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 27, 2014, 06:41:55 PM

Quote from: prophetx on April 27, 2014, 06:32:36 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 27, 2014, 06:18:55 PM

Quote from: p0peji on April 27, 2014, 04:56:03 PM

Quote from: boumalo on April 27, 2014, 04:48:50 PM

Quote from: p0peji on April 27, 2014, 04:21:57 PM

I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding Grin

If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even

Your average cost is going down right now Tongue

If you bought at the dips, but lets think of the bulls (the ones who cry CCMF, with every bull-trap) who buy when there is somewhat of a price increase, your average cost per bitcoin would be around 800$

I fit the buying all the way down scenario fairly well. I began buying at about $1,200 b/c I got my first 1.24 BTC through Localbitcoins.com in the end of November 2013.

Mostly, ever since, I have been buying on the way down - even though i missed a few buying opportunities here and there to buy more when the price was lower and to refrain from buying when the price was higher.

Today my average buy-in price (including fees) is a little less than $605. I am on the edge of buying a little bit more - yet I am thinking we may get down to $420, the way this seems to be going.... not sure when to pull the trigger on the next buy, exactly.

If I panic sold today, I would be about 28% down (including fees).

not a good idea...

What's NOT a good idea? What are you doing and have you done regarding your BTC investment long term and/or short term?

breaking rule #1: buying into a losing position

WTF are you talking about?

First: Do you happen to know my reasons for getting into BTC? my risk profile, my investment allocation(s), my intended timeline and intended strategy(ies), my contemplations about potential adjustment(s) to my investment strategies, my diversification of assets, or any other potentially relevant factor(s)?

Second: you still have NOT disclosed anything about your own investment into BTC, or any other investments or lack thereof.

Third: It is really easy for you to judge another persons strategy retrospectively, without knowing too much about the situation, while NOT providing any information about your own investment portfolio, if any?

Fourth: What is your purpose in suggesting that I made some kind of bad judgement or a bad investment?

I'm all ears (and eyes) awaiting and looking forward to some of your disclosures about your investment(s). I doubt that i will receive anything meaningful from you.... b/c it appears as if you merely are striving to provide succinct summary comments that are devoid of any meaningful context.

Quote from: prophetx on April 27, 2014, 10:31:22 PM

Quote from: prophetx on April 27, 2014, 10:28:09 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 27, 2014, 06:41:55 PM

Quote from: prophetx on April 27, 2014, 06:32:36 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 27, 2014, 06:18:55 PM

Quote from: p0peji on April 27, 2014, 04:56:03 PM

Quote from: boumalo on April 27, 2014, 04:48:50 PM

Quote from: p0peji on April 27, 2014, 04:21:57 PM

I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding Grin

If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even

Your average cost is going down right now Tongue

If you bought at the dips, but lets think of the bulls (the ones who cry CCMF, with every bull-trap) who buy when there is somewhat of a price increase, your average cost per bitcoin would be around 800$

I fit the buying all the way down scenario fairly well. I began buying at about $1,200 b/c I got my first 1.24 BTC through Localbitcoins.com in the end of November 2013.

Mostly, ever since, I have been buying on the way down - even though i missed a few buying opportunities here and there to buy more when the price was lower and to refrain from buying when the price was higher.

Today my average buy-in price (including fees) is a little less than $605. I am on the edge of buying a little bit more - yet I am thinking we may get down to $420, the way this seems to be going.... not sure when to pull the trigger on the next buy, exactly.

If I panic sold today, I would be about 28% down (including fees).

not a good idea...

What's NOT a good idea? What are you doing and have you done regarding your BTC investment long term and/or short term?

breaking rule #1: buying into a losing position

http://www.dacharts.com/articles/_22rulestrading.htm

The 22 Rules of Trading

We give you Master Trader Dennis Gartman's 22 Rules of Trading, many of which you can apply to all sorts of life situations, as well as the markets.......................................

.............

I have NO problem with those 22 rules - though I would call them tips or best practices (as is implied from "rule 22"). Accordingly, thank you for sharing them. NONETHELESS, you have NO CLUE about whether or the extent to which they may apply to my particular situation. You can sit atop your perch and Monday morning quarter-back all that you like... but that does NOT really enlighten anyone in any kind of meaningful way - even though I repeat that I do appreciate that you provided the general parameters from which you were speaking and that is the "Dennis Gartman" guidelines.

Quote from: dreamspark on April 27, 2014, 10:45:04 PM

Man $435 is not looking good...

Wow.. the price has NOT quite hit $435, yet.

Maybe I am going to jinx the situation; however, the closest that it has come so far (on stamp) is $438.88... and that was a flash. Though I think $439 was sustained over several spread out minutes.

Quote from: podyx on April 28, 2014, 12:14:48 AM

Quote from: wachtwoord on April 28, 2014, 12:12:43 AM

Quote from: podyx on April 28, 2014, 12:00:39 AM

Quote from: y3804 on April 27, 2014, 11:58:18 PM

?

It's still 28 days left
If you're so lit up on risto that you quote him, I would assume you would read the bet conditions

on another note: pulled my $425 order

Not sure where this is going to be honest
still sub 400 would surprise me

Then why pull the order? Doesn't make rational sense. Remember the balls of steel thread? Wink

This will probably will be my last fiat that i'm wiring and i'm scared of getting burned
Downtrends and even beartraps are a motherfucker when you're 100% btc Grin

I agree. Frequently, it is best to attempt to buy at the lowest possible amount, and when ALL of the exchanges appear to be going down rapidly, it makes one wonder how far down the price is going to go.

On the other hand, as you suggested, if you have a little more Fiat to spare, then you may err on the side of investing a little more as the price is going down.. in order to NOT get left behind. Though since we have been in this price range (fairly recently), in the last couple of weeks, several of us have already bought at around these prices. I am thinking to buy around $420, now.... though I am NOT very confident that the prices are going to go much lower than that --- currently bouncing off to $433 from $425- but I will save some fiat, just in case we go to $400 or lower.

Quote from: CoinRocka on April 28, 2014, 12:20:20 AM

Quote from: podyx on April 28, 2014, 12:12:23 AM

Quote from: y3804 on April 28, 2014, 12:09:57 AM

http://english.caixin.com/2014-03-27/100657518.html

The central bank has taken a step that at least one expert says means all bitcoin trading websites in the country must close.

And... here.. we GO

LOL

Am I the only one who's gonna be scooping sub 300 like fucking crazy??
I came here to stack, I SMELL WEALTH Grin

(if it's true Cool

)

I'm pretty pumped. Timed the sale of a domain name perfectly for this discount!!

YOU Fucker!!!!! I'm so jealous. Cheesy

Quote from: p0peji on April 28, 2014, 12:48:59 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 28, 2014, 12:45:06 AM

So no news?
Just people trying to take Bitcoin down and the usual idiots following then while losing all their money?

The only thing that is being taken down atm is your and other hodlers profits. Bitcoin will exist anyways, high price or low.

FYI - the profits of HODLers is NOT taken down unless one of two things occur:

1) they cash out and lock-in losses,

or

2) BTC prices fail (or refuse) to go back up.

These are possible outcomes, but are NOT necessarily probable.

Quote from: SheHadMANHands on April 28, 2014, 12:49:37 AM

This downward trend (~6 month) is losing momentum Tongue

These slips get smaller and smaller. Thinking ~$340 was the bottom now (2 weeks ago). Tongue

A LOT of us have been saying that for about two months. I began saying that the downward trend is losing momentum at about $610 (around the beginning of February).

Hopefully, you are correct this time, but I can see the possibility of downward BTC price trending for a few more months... .i'm not sure how far.. maybe mid-$300s..... I prefer some thing like that $300-ish NOT to happen.. but continued downward trending for a few more months certainly does seem possible.

Quote from: TeeBone on April 28, 2014, 12:53:46 AM

Quote from: hyphymikey on April 28, 2014, 12:49:44 AM

Who is willing to call a bottom?

I'd say we going to at least 382.

Me thinks 400 and 380 wont put up much of a fight. The war is at 340, if that gets taken out say hello to 266.

Me thinks that you gonna get a fight all the way down to $400 - however, if you get past $400, then the next fight will be around $350 or $360. I'm kind of guessing based on the recent fights from a few weeks ago.

Quote from: SheHadMANHands on April 28, 2014, 01:05:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 28, 2014, 01:01:36 AM

Quote from: SheHadMANHands on April 28, 2014, 12:49:37 AM

This downward trend (~6 month) is losing momentum Tongue

These slips get smaller and smaller. Thinking ~$340 was the bottom now (2 weeks ago). Tongue

A LOT of us have been saying that for about two months. I began saying that the downward trend is losing momentum at about $610 (around the beginning of February).

Hopefully, you are correct this time, but I can see the possibility of downward BTC price trending for a few more months... .i'm not sure how far.. maybe mid-$300s..... I prefer some thing like that $300-ish NOT to happen.. but continued downward trending for a few more months certainly does seem possible.

Mid/Long term, this is cheap. Who knows wtf will happen over the next week or two.. but I can hodl for year+, so that's irrelevant (beyond perhaps the emotional fatigue.. which we all can stomach).

YEP>>>>> ditto dat.

Quote from: p0peji on April 28, 2014, 01:10:39 AM

Quote from: SheHadMANHands on April 28, 2014, 01:05:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 28, 2014, 01:01:36 AM

Quote from: SheHadMANHands on April 28, 2014, 12:49:37 AM

This downward trend (~6 month) is losing momentum Tongue

These slips get smaller and smaller. Thinking ~$340 was the bottom now (2 weeks ago). Tongue

A LOT of us have been saying that for about two months. I began saying that the downward trend is losing momentum at about $610 (around the beginning of February).

Hopefully, you are correct this time, but I can see the possibility of downward BTC price trending for a few more months... .i'm not sure how far.. maybe mid-$300s..... I prefer some thing like that $300-ish NOT to happen.. but continued downward trending for a few more months certainly does seem possible.

Mid/Long term, this is cheap. Who knows wtf will happen over the next week or two.. but I can hodl for year+, so that's irrelevant (beyond perhaps the emotional fatigue.. which we all can stomach).

Why not wait for more definitive information that the trend has reversed before buying back in?

Who said anything about "buying back in?" The phrase, "buying back in" implies that a person sold. I do NOT advocate selling, unless you are really confident that you are going to be able to buy in at a lower price. And with prices this low, it would be very risky to sell, if you have NOT already sold (mainly b/c of the large level of manipulation and the ability of prices to sky rocket and to reverse at any time), but to each his/her own - if someone is selling and trying to buy back in at a lower price.

I advocate buying more as the price goes down to attempt to buy as much as low as possible. But, to each his own, regarding that strategy, as well.

Quote from: wachtwoord on April 28, 2014, 01:54:33 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 28, 2014, 01:49:09 AM

Quote from: akujin on April 28, 2014, 01:47:15 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 26, 2014, 10:14:30 AM

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

wow! stamp at 425!
Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have a Loser!
Congratulations to rpietila!
Here's your trophy

Grin

He will likely still tie the bet (that was never confirmed)

Actually, Rpietila did NOT like that upside part of the bet, and regarding the downside of the bet (the $435), he was attempting to be so amorphous that NONE of us would likely be able to pin him down in any kind of way concerning to what he was betting... like trying to catch a well oiled lil piggy.

I was under the impression that Rpietila's initial statement was pretty unambiguous. He said: BTC will "NEVER" breach $435 again. He felt so confident, and asked does anyone want to bet?

But when he was called out for specifics and for an actual commitment to a bet, he weasled with the invention of conditions for the bet and suggested that it was NOT worth his time to make any kind of commitment to such a bet unless he was for sure going to make some money out of the deal or to get "odds" that were NOT part of the initial statement.

AS if everything that any of us does in this thread requires that we make money along the way.

Again, I could care less if someone is wrong about the future.. b/c we know that the future is difficult to predict - especially short-term. He's got another problem, in these circumstances..... and I feel that I need NOT repeat myself again regarding this particular point and regarding his problem of lack of commitment, here.

Quote from: windjc on April 28, 2014, 02:08:54 AM

What the hell is going on over at Bitcoinwisdom? I still cannot see the updated Houbi chart.

And why is this happening to some people and not others?

I think that Bitcoinwisdom is out to get you with the belief that you are becoming too self-confident. Bitcoinwisdom wants to put you in your place. by handicapping you. It's like golf, if you get too good, then your handicap points are removed. You are playing Bitcoinwisdom golf. Shocked

Quote from: mmitech on April 28, 2014, 07:45:35 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit_Disgrace on April 28, 2014, 07:44:50 AM

I really hope @mmitech won't have to apologize for the second time with @rpietila, that will be just hilarious. Cheesy

hell no, fuck him...

Did you have to apologize to Rpietila, previously?

Actually, certainly, I am NOT of the belief that Rpietila is a dumb guy who thinks he is smart... but sometimes, he does seem to let his ego get in the way of his interactions, and he seems to believe that his recently found wealth gives him license to be pompous and pretentious and manipulative.

I have no problem with any body making predictions, and I appreciate some of Rpietila's predictive constructs. However, frequently the certainties and absolutism of math is NOT going to work very well when dealing with politics and human behavior. I believe he recognizes this; however, seems to get caught up in his own predictive marketing-type delusion(s).. and then tries to get his way when interacting with people (and the bet discussion exemplifies this wanting to get his way then attempting to reframe history in such a way that rationalizes what had happened)... which in sum seems to be Rpietila's failure/refusal to interact reasonably.. as Windjc mentioned.

Quote from: octaft on April 28, 2014, 09:06:39 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 07:52:00 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 28, 2014, 07:34:21 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 07:31:43 AM

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not. Grin

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

This is a great way of expressing the situation.

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 10:05:51 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 28, 2014, 09:06:39 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 07:52:00 AM

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

Which part of the Call to Bet was difficult to understand? Grin

Quote from: rpietila on April 26, 2014, 10:14:30 AM

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

Perhaps you fit in the description in my Lamentation... Cheesy

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 07:07:18 AM

EPILOGUE

It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it.

Have you noticed that not a single person with high standing has criticized me? It is the same trolls over and over, twisting simple and clear words, or teens with fingers hard-wired to bypass the brain.

There you go with more of your ad hominem attacks and denials. I certainly am NO troll, and I think that your criticism is misplaced with me and with almost all of the others regarding this point.

Likely, you need to take responsibility for your ambiguous words, your lack of clarity in bet terms and your failure to work with anyone to finalize a meaningful and reasonable bet... which probably shows that you just were NOT committed to your assertion... and you misspoke and internally contradicted yourself, then your pride got in the way so that you would NOT back out.

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 10:21:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 28, 2014, 10:01:57 AM

Did you have to apologize to Rpietila, previously?

Actually, certainly, I am NOT of the belief that Rpietila is a dumb guy who thinks he is smart... but sometimes, he does seem to let his ego get in the way of his interactions, and he seems to believe that his recently found wealth gives him license to be pompous and pretentious and manipulative.

I have no problem with any body making predictions, and I appreciate some of Rpietila's predictive constructs. However, frequently the certainties and absolutism of math is NOT going to work very well when dealing with politics and human behavior. I believe he recognizes this; however, seems to get caught up in his own predictive marketing-type delusion(s).. and then tries to get his way when interacting with people (and the bet discussion exemplifies this wanting to get his way then attempting to reframe history in such a way that rationalizes what had happened)... which in sum seems to be Rpietila's failure/refusal to interact reasonably.. as Windjc mentioned.

I think that rpietila is dumb, at least in the general sense. Most of the people here think that he is smart, because he likes to do meaningless lists and likes to add loads of insignificant numbers to his post. To the inexperienced people, it looks like he is doing serious financial analysis. If you know even a little about finance, then you can see that it's entertaining gibberish at best. Or if you'll look at the outcomes of his predictions, or just his business practices, then you can also see how dumb he actually is.
Anyway, my point is, that you shouldn't feel bad for calling him dumb, because he is dumb. I personally also have doubts that he has a serious drug problem, because making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

I think that you are going much too far, and probably, I should NOT even be entertaining your post - b/c I have already have attempted to have genuine communications with you, without luck. I even saw interaction between you and Rpietila, where he likely entertained you too much too - by giving you the benefit of the doubt concerning whether you were attempting to engage in a genuine or meaningful (non-troll conversation).

People do dumb things, sometimes, and Rpietila is far from dumb - even though he has contradicted himself (at least regarding the bet issue) and rationalized his communications concerning the bet issue... but that does NOT make him dumb.. and also, he has made a lot of valuable contributions to the forum through his various postings over the years (I have NOT read all of them, but several and they are genuinely helpful in framing various issues and providing experiential perspective).

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 11:07:33 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 28, 2014, 10:54:29 AM

I think that you are going much too far, and probably, I should NOT even be entertaining your post - b/c I have already have attempted to have genuine communications with you, without luck. I even saw interaction between you and Rpietila, where he likely entertained you too much too - by giving you the benefit of the doubt concerning whether you were attempting to engage in a genuine or meaningful (non-troll conversation).

People do dumb things, sometimes, and Rpietila is far from dumb - even though he has contradicted himself (at least regarding the bet issue) and rationalized his communications concerning the bet issue... but that does NOT make him dumb.. and also, he has made a lot of valuable contributions to the forum through his various postings over the years (I have NOT read all of them, but several and they are genuinely helpful in framing various issues and providing experiential perspective).

I was actually the one that gave him the benefit of the doubt, and I actually PMed him a serious and honest message, like he asked. And as predicted, he didn't respond. So, now I'm quite certain that there is no constructive communication possible with him. The only use he has is for entertainment purposes.

If you want to learn about his history, then learn about how he took an unprotected laptop to an sauna party, that got stolen together with the coins it held. In my book, it's either very stupid, or it's the work of an confidence man.
I don't know if you actually believe that he isn't dumb, or are you just trying to ass-kiss yourself a room at the "castle". And I don't actually care, you aren't the only one here who actually believes that he is smart. I have spoken my mind, and I think that he really is dumb.

You frequently seem to revert to inaccurate reframings of my posts and the posts of others, which tends to be irritating for me b/c I have NO ambition to repeat my posts and then maybe to say something differently from what I hS originally Posted. In this case, in my original post, I said that Rpietila does NOT seem dumb and has made a lot of valuable contributions to the forum, from what I could gather in my limited readings. I may change my mind, but currently, I am of the opinion that his posts are genuinely contributory in a variety of ways.

Further, regarding whether I am ass kissing anyone, you may find the concept of respecting others difficult to understand. For me, I would prefer to be respectful to the ideas and contributions of others, unless it seems to me that the other person(s) is(are) engaging in purposeful disingenuous communications, then I begin to get a little irritated and may attempt to articulate such irritation(s).

Quote from: Markus11 on April 28, 2014, 11:38:57 AM

Back OT please children

What's the topic, again?

Quote from: nrd525 on April 28, 2014, 06:43:05 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 26, 2014, 10:14:30 AM

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 07:07:18 AM

I had estimated that probability for 435 holding should be 10% in general public's eyes, but I thought it was 20%. So I would have taken 7:1 odds for me, and lost almost straight away.

This whole controversy boils down to
-people assuming that all bets are done at 1:1 odds (most person to person bets are done this way, but not all)
-the large gap between "better than 1:1" and "7:1"

Making fun and/or insulting someone into taking a bet doesn't work. Trying to have the bet setup in a way that grossly favors your side and then insulting the other party for refusing to take the bet is the classic, but ineffective tactic.

In general it is unlikely that you will be able to organize a bet online with someone you haven't met nor trust (the bet against Bitcoin Savings and Trust was a big exception - but it had value for both the better who was going to win, and Trendon who was hoping to prop-up his ponzi).

It seems that a lot of people are missing the point, and that is Rpietila proposed to bet.

Rpietila weasled out of making any bet by making the matter more complicated than it needed to be. If he truly wanted odds, then he should have clearly and unambiguously reiterated that point and made his proposed odds clear, but he did NOT.

His talk about odds was ambiguous at best b/c he spoke out of two sides of his mouth by saying out of one side of his mouth that the price would never reach $435.. and then saying out of the other side of his mouth that he wants odds in his favor. These two statements are ambiguous and seem to be contradictory and it was up to him to clarify them.. and he failed/refused to clarify until afterwards.. and even afterwards it remains unclear what bet and what odds he would have taken in such hypothetical circumstances.

Quote from: Richy_T on April 28, 2014, 08:33:05 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 28, 2014, 07:05:01 PM

His talk about odds was ambiguous at best b/c he spoke out of two sides of his mouth by saying out of one side of his mouth that the price would never reach $435.. and then saying out of the other side of his mouth that he wants odds in his favor. These two statements are ambiguous and seem to be contradictory and it was up to him to clarify them.. and he failed/refused to clarify until afterwards.. and even afterwards it remains unclear what bet and what odds he would have taken in such hypothetical circumstances.

Yeah, I couldn't be bothered to calculate too hard on it but it seems to me that if you think something won't happen really strongly, you would be willing to accept odds against yourself (in favor of the person who expects the unlikely event to occur.) but he seemed to be wanting it the other way around.

If you were to bet me the moon would rise purple tonight, I might give you 100:1 odds because I'd be fairly confident it wasn't going to happen. I might go higher even but there's not much point exposing myself to high risk for a small gain, regardless.

I'm NOT hating on Rpietila - b/c I could care less whether he got his prediction correct or NOT and I am all for BTC to the moon and don't go below $435... etc.. etc.. , but it is a little irritating when he seems to purposefully leave the terms of the bet matters ambiguous, and then suggests that several of us are below him b/c we cannot understand his supposedly sophisticated logic.

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 28, 2014, 09:18:51 PM

Quote from: p0peji on April 28, 2014, 09:12:09 PM

Quote from: macsga on April 28, 2014, 07:44:04 PM

Nonsense, there was a quadruple bottom and I saw it:
WARNING!
LEGIT TA FOLLOWS:

In other words:

CCMF!!!!!1

Erm this quadruple bottom will only result in a big red candle imo.

ya but look at that TA! hard to disagree..

I can see the quadruple A, but where's the T?

Quote from: spooderman on April 28, 2014, 10:32:26 PM

Quote from: Patel on April 28, 2014, 09:52:34 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 28, 2014, 09:37:59 PM

i feel an epic buy bitcoin inspirational speech coming...

My fellow Bitcoiners. I have a dream, that one day coins will not be judged on their color and taint, but be judged as one by the strength of the network hash. Together we can transform the global financial system. BUY!

"All that it takes for fiat to triumph is for good men to stand idly by as it is used."

My brothers I have SEEN the sending of a bitcoin from one person to another. Because I have been to the dark market.

Like anybody I would like to buy a lambo. Lamborghinis have their place.

But I'm not concerned about that now.

I may not get to 10k with you, but as I said we aren't gonna let any wars turn us around, we aren't going to let any China ban hold us down!

We've got some difficult days ahead, by my friends blockchain.info has allowed me to see the transactions! My eyes have witnessed the promised coins!

That's a lovely speech. Wink

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 28, 2014, 11:04:41 PM

I may sound like a broken record as I keep saying I'll deposit money and don't mostly due to having satisfied my short range target btc holding with a 540 Avg buy in price. Goxxin and China bans didn't surprise me as I was fielding these questions from friends in November. I know not everyone has great foresight but...to get caught up in the political and monetary motivations of a Communist country that isn't really communist, kind've shocks me. I mean they are trying to ban the internet before it becomes the internet, as we know bitcoin is currently used mainly as a payment system / speculative play, but can become something so much more then this and it is silly to act like it can be stopped cause people fear financial risks that their populations speculators are taking in the early stages, especially when we have bigger criminals robbing us on the daily.

Also in some sense Bitcoin / a Blockchain embodies the idea of communism ( in the sense that we all help to sustain or maintain the blockchain p2p ). Makes me laugh that China probably is more afraid of bitcoin damaging the USD $'s global value in the coming years, and they got all that American Debt they need to offload first.

Personally, I sense that the Chinese BTC investors are just going with the flow to take advantage of the BTC hype, and the average Chinese BTC investor is probably NOT considerably affected by whether there is a "ban" or NOT.

The Chinese BTC investors are just riding the BTC wave, and in the future will still be into bitcoin, so long as bitcoin continues to be a likely better store of value than the RMB, the dollar or even possibly gold... Just a means to speculate and store value and to be able to retrieve that value overseas, if necessary. So diversification of assets will likely continue to justify holding some wealth in BTC..... b/c BTC continues to have upside potential with increased world-wide BTC and other crypto currencies adoption.

Quote from: Adrian-x on April 28, 2014, 11:34:13 PM

OK cheaper coins coming in, but not that I have $22,000 per day to invest, but that is not a lot of cash globally needed to come in to the average exchange to keep demand higher than production.
I'm banking supply dries up when AM gen3 chips are implemented and push up that difficulty.

In my thinking pushing up mining difficulty does NOT necessarily affect the BTC supply, it only concentrates the BTC supply into a smaller number of hands. A smaller number of miners holding BTC may mean that they are more likely to liquidate their coins, as part of their business model,.... rather than HODL.... or in the end, whether they HODL or dump could be a wash.... in other words it is NOT clear that increasing difficulty increases directly affects whether BTC are dumped or HODL'd.

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 29, 2014, 12:12:07 AM

its already turned around its just not Obvious yet.

price is NOT high, and its not going lower.

Winklebros bought a long time ago, we were in the teens i think

That's what Rpietila said. Cheesy

Quote from: aminorex on April 29, 2014, 01:42:13 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 29, 2014, 01:31:16 AM

It's based on Austrian Business Cycle Theory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory Bitcoins need to flow from the people who use them less productively to the people who use them more productively. You can't have sustainable growth when incompetents control all the capital.

Okay, now that's one of the most absurd misapplications of business cycle theory that I've ever seen.

I don't claim to be an expert in any of these various economic theories, but there seems to be some sense in what BJA is saying - apart from his having to feel some kind of irresistible urge to dish out insults regarding the competency and/or intelligence of regular people.

I do believe that the status quo wealthy will put up quite a bit of a battle in any redistribution of wealth attempts in order that redistribution of wealth is only minimum..

In other words the status quo wealthy use any tools at their disposal by hook or by crook to ensure that redistribution of wealth does NOT leave them hanging high and dry. They may NOT be too successful with bitcoin b/c the train may leave some of them, but they are going to put up several obstacles along the way and secretly board at later stops.

Quote from: RUEHL on April 29, 2014, 01:45:02 AM

Quote from: shmadz on April 29, 2014, 12:06:27 AM

by the way, does anyone know the price that the Winklebros bought in at?

In this CNBC video, they confirm they they started accumulating in the single digits.

In some other interview, I remember them saying "high single digits."

Seems like the Wiklevos bros did NOT get GOXed.... at least, NOT directly.

All of us bitcoin users or bitcoin user wann-a-bees were indirectly goxed to some extent.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 29, 2014, 02:00:58 AM

Quote from: aminorex on April 29, 2014, 01:42:13 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 29, 2014, 01:31:16 AM

It's based on Austrian Business Cycle Theory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory Bitcoins need to flow from the people who use them less productively to the people who use them more productively. You can't have sustainable growth when incompetents control all the capital.

Okay, now that's one of the most absurd misapplications of business cycle theory that I've ever seen.

Is it? Who owns the most Bitcoins right now? Capitalists with experience in wealth creation outside of Bitcoin? No. It's largely people like me who bought them by maxing out credit cards. So how do capitalists acquire capital? Do they enrich reckless speculators or wait until the speculators are forced to partially or completely liquidate?

I'm not saying I know that a sufficient number of coins hasn't already changed hands. That's possible, but what's certain is that selling pressure continues until all the people with the need to sell have sold. The people with the need to sell are people with negative cash flow outside of Bitcoin appreciation.

Is your capital structured is such a way that time is your friend or your enemy? If you are positioned well, you shouldn't care if the market goes up down or sideways.

Hopefully you have learned by your own words that it is NOT good to be overly leveraged in BTC b/c that could cause BTC to transfer from your hands to the hands of others at a loss to you. You frequently claim that you are NOT one of those people who get taken advantage of in the investment world.. but you als o assert that you are engaging in heavily leveraged behaviors.. which could come back to bite you in the butt if you are NOT careful.. ... accordingly, your butt will get burnt if you overly leverage in bitcoin and you are NOT able to manipulate prices.

Quote from: y3804 on April 29, 2014, 02:03:26 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 29, 2014, 01:59:13 AM

Quote from: y3804 on April 29, 2014, 01:47:10 AM

Any thoughts on this one? News released today. This could crash the price hard. 385000BTC for $3M USD? what?

http://www.coindesk.com/us-government-sells-silk-road-users-seized-bitcoins-for-3-million/

if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins'

Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins

I doubt that they are going to sell or liquidate those coins in large quantities, unless they are assured to get close to retail or above retail for them.

Quote from: thezerg on April 29, 2014, 02:46:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 29, 2014, 02:33:01 AM

Quote from: Adrian-x on April 28, 2014, 11:34:13 PM

OK cheaper coins coming in, but not that I have $22,000 per day to invest, but that is not a lot of cash globally needed to come in to the average exchange to keep demand higher than production.
I'm banking supply dries up when AM gen3 chips are implemented and push up that difficulty.

In my thinking pushing up mining difficulty does NOT necessarily affect the BTC supply, it only concentrates the BTC supply into a smaller number of hands. A smaller number of miners holding BTC may mean that they are more likely to liquidate their coins, as part of their business model,.... rather than HODL.... or in the end, whether they HODL or dump could be a wash.... in other words it is NOT clear that increasing difficulty increases directly affects whether BTC are dumped or HODL'd.

Calm down. They never said they had 385k -- that's his total gross. That's ~$200 million in todays valuation. If they had found that many, this arrest would be front page news. He probably spent most of the coins or has them hidden away. Since no specific numbers of impounded assets were mentioned, its possible that all they have (and sold) is his portion of the SR coins. They can't sell those coins until they get a conviction, right? Its not their coins until the conviction. This guy pleading guilty freed up his SR coins...

I think that your response was meant to be directed at another post.

Quote from: y3804 on April 29, 2014, 02:48:56 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on April 29, 2014, 02:32:19 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 29, 2014, 02:27:04 AM

Quote from: y3804 on April 29, 2014, 02:03:26 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 29, 2014, 01:59:13 AM

Quote from: y3804 on April 29, 2014, 01:47:10 AM

Any thoughts on this one? News released today. This could crash the price hard. 385000BTC for $3M USD? what?

http://www.coindesk.com/us-government-sells-silk-road-users-seized-bitcoins-for-3-million/

if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins'

Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins

Bitcoins are fungible, so even if they don't get dumped on the market, other coins that would have otherwise gone to the purchasers of the seized coins will get dumped on the market. Mathematically it is irrelevant if the result is selling pressure or lack of buying pressure. There is a downward price effect on the market either way.

+1 Same goes for 200,000 Gox BTCs to be liquidated.

And US goverment has now more than 500,000 BTC ?!? 30+k from Silk Road, 130+ personal Ullbricht stash plus 385k from this new drug dealer?

This. The amount of seized BTC that has to be auctioned and dumped on the market is so high... At least 400K (GOX+Silk+others), if not more, probably sold well under $250 for each coin, ready to be dumped on the market at any point. Truth is, even a relatively small 20K dump could totally crash BTC's value to $50/coin.

I could literally wake up one day and see BTC's value drop 50%. This will kill BTC's long term value, seriously scary stuff

In recent postings, you have become quite intense in your FUD spreading.

Your above post is filled with many unfounded assumptions. Coins would have to be sold for much below market rate before there would be an incentive to dump. I do NOT see whey the GOVT would sell BTC below market rate unless there is some kind of collusion.. .for example selling to some big bank that wants to bring down the BTC market.

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on April 29, 2014, 04:04:40 AM

Quote from: shmadz on April 29, 2014, 03:05:24 AM

Quote from: y3804 on April 29, 2014, 02:48:56 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on April 29, 2014, 02:32:19 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 29, 2014, 02:27:04 AM

Quote from: y3804 on April 29, 2014, 02:03:26 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 29, 2014, 01:59:13 AM

Quote from: y3804 on April 29, 2014, 01:47:10 AM

Any thoughts on this one? News released today. This could crash the price hard. 385000BTC for $3M USD? what?

http://www.coindesk.com/us-government-sells-silk-road-users-seized-bitcoins-for-3-million/

if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins'

Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins

Bitcoins are fungible, so even if they don't get dumped on the market, other coins that would have otherwise gone to the purchasers of the seized coins will get dumped on the market. Mathematically it is irrelevant if the result is selling pressure or lack of buying pressure. There is a downward price effect on the market either way.

+1 Same goes for 200,000 Gox BTCs to be liquidated.

And US goverment has now more than 500,000 BTC ?!? 30+k from Silk Road, 130+ personal Ullbricht stash plus 385k from this new drug dealer?

This. The amount of seized BTC that has to be auctioned and dumped on the market is so high... At least 400K (GOX+Silk+others), if not more, probably sold well under $250 for each coin, ready to be dumped on the market at any point. Truth is, even a relatively small 20K dump could totally crash BTC's value to $50/coin.

I could literally wake up one day and see BTC's value drop 50%. This will kill BTC's long term value, seriously scary stuff

bold emphasis mine

I don't think that the redistribution of a paltry 400,000 coins will "kill" bitoin's long term value.

just another bump in the road

(edit - ok "paltry" was a bad choice of words, what I should have said is "the redistribution of coins from the people that want to sell to the people that want to buy will not "kill" bitcoin. In fact, it is a good thing.")

I was not saying anything about future repercussions - just begin to absorb the fact.

US goverment is in the possession of more than 5% world supply of bitcoins Angry

Surprising. Scary. Not was bitcoin was suppossed to be ...

Perhaps that is why fed were so surprisingly friendly toward BTC? At least until they will sell?

The US Govt role in all of these bitcoin matters remains quite confusing, and can be interpreted in a variety of ways.

I understand the various entities of the US Govt as bags of walking contradictions, and there is NO one US Govt.. b/c various entities talk out of two sides of their mouths and one entity does NOT know what another entity is doing and certainly the people do NOT know what the govt is doing b/c there are a lot of smoke and mirrors.

Accordingly, I would NOT put it passed various entities of the US Govt to also be holding onto the approximately 600K missing Gox coins. Accordingly, the US govt is potentially holding 10% of the bitcoin supply.
There may even be more nefarious activities going on... in order to supply bitcoins and/or miners. Govt entities can be very good at taking away property without due process.. especially if terrorism, porn, child molestation, murder, drug dealing and/or money laundering are used as rationals to justify govt intervention.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 29, 2014, 04:23:01 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 29, 2014, 03:15:45 AM

I don't claim to be an expert in any of these various economic theories, but there seems to be some sense in what BJA is saying - apart from his having to feel some kind of irresistible urge to dish out insults regarding the competency and/or intelligence of regular people.

I do believe that the status quo wealthy will put up quite a bit of a battle in any redistribution of wealth attempts in order that redistribution of wealth is only minimum..

In other words the status quo wealthy use any tools at their disposal by hook or by crook to ensure that redistribution of wealth does NOT leave them hanging high and dry. They may NOT be too successful with bitcoin b/c the train may leave some of them, but they are going to put up several obstacles along the way and secretly board at later stops.

I think it is quite possible bordering on probable that I am one of the incompetents I am referring to. It's not intended as an insult. It's just part of the theory.

Part of my issue, though, in your framing in competence and/or intelligence is that it seems to assume too much about the wealthy being competent or smart. Just b/c someone has a lot of power and/or resources at his/her disposal and wants to engage in a large variety of strategies to maintain the status quo and to preserve that wealth and those resources does NOT mean that the person is smarter or more competent.. even though the one with the resources and wealth may win (in spite of not being smarter or more competent).

Quote from: y3804 on April 29, 2014, 04:57:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 29, 2014, 04:53:01 AM

In recent postings, you have become quite intense in your FUD spreading.

Your above post is filled with many unfounded assumptions. Coins would have to be sold for much below market rate before there would be an incentive to dump. I do NOT see whey the GOVT would sell BTC below market rate unless there is some kind of collusion.. .for example selling to some big bank that wants to bring down the BTC market.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=577764.0

The referred to thread does NOT relieve you of your responsibility in your having had spread FUD.

Quote from: TERA on April 29, 2014, 05:01:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 29, 2014, 04:53:01 AM

Quote from: y3804 on April 29, 2014, 02:48:56 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on April 29, 2014, 02:32:19 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 29, 2014, 02:27:04 AM

Quote from: y3804 on April 29, 2014, 02:03:26 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 29, 2014, 01:59:13 AM

Quote from: y3804 on April 29, 2014, 01:47:10 AM

Any thoughts on this one? News released today. This could crash the price hard. 385000BTC for $3M USD? what?

http://www.coindesk.com/us-government-sells-silk-road-users-seized-bitcoins-for-3-million/

if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins'

Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins

Bitcoins are fungible, so even if they don't get dumped on the market, other coins that would have otherwise gone to the purchasers of the seized coins will get dumped on the market. Mathematically it is irrelevant if the result is selling pressure or lack of buying pressure. There is a downward price effect on the market either way.

+1 Same goes for 200,000 Gox BTCs to be liquidated.

And US goverment has now more than 500,000 BTC ?!? 30+k from Silk Road, 130+ personal Ullbricht stash plus 385k from this new drug dealer?

This. The amount of seized BTC that has to be auctioned and dumped on the market is so high... At least 400K (GOX+Silk+others), if not more, probably sold well under $250 for each coin, ready to be dumped on the market at any point. Truth is, even a relatively small 20K dump could totally crash BTC's value to $50/coin.

I could literally wake up one day and see BTC's value drop 50%. This will kill BTC's long term value, seriously scary stuff

In recent postings, you have become quite intense in your FUD spreading.

Your above post is filled with many unfounded assumptions. Coins would have to be sold for much below market rate before there would be an incentive to dump. I do NOT see whey the GOVT would sell BTC below market rate unless there is some kind of collusion.. .for example selling to some big bank that wants to bring down the BTC market.

I don't think that the government cares about or believes in a 'market rate' of bitcoin. The market is a manipulated game that we traders play against eachother and has meaning only to us. It is a very fragile illusion caused by hoarding and could not possibly withstand any signiifcant amount of selling. It would take a year to distribute all the those coins at market rate and doing so might cause a collapse and we're not even sure bitcoin will survive till then without some kind of technical glitch. The government is not a big bitcoin bull like you. The government does not want to speculate. What the government wants is cash, in their pocket, now. So if they can manage to sell all the coins and get a substantial amount of cash via large block trades under market rates offline, then they will do so and that would be great for them - a big success. They want a certainty, and a closed deal. I believe this is how the government operates will all kinds of seized assets, selling them at auctions for ridiculously low prices.

Yes. I agree with a lot of your logic and mostly that the govt has procedures in place to auction off assets and to get rid of them as quickly as possible.

This may or may NOT play out in that way with bitcoin, and really do you believe your own words regarding ridiculously low prices with a fairly liquid asset, such as bitcoin? Yes a $10 million dollar house may end up selling for $1million, but that is b/c the asset may NOT be very liquid.. and even its encumbrances unclear. Same with a $100k pink cadillac with 24 karate gold rims may sell for less than $10K.... the market value of bitcoin can be traced precisely on the day of the auction, and I doubt they are selling BTC for less than 90% of their retail value.. .. unless they were conducting some kind of secret auction.. which would NOT usually be the case.

The other possibility is that the govt contains various hidden agendas... and has NOTHING to do with my bullish or bearish but instead about perceiving BTC as a threat or a menace. Those kinds of perceptions by govt actors can cause problematic behaviors and uncertainty about how they are going to proceed, but we are NOT there.. yet regarding each of these various BTC stashes that are in Governmental hands.

I understand that this last motivation description that i have outlined remains contradictory and ambiguous, and really we do NOT know how various governmental entities feel about BTC. There is NO one size fits all b/c govt is all over the place regarding BTC.

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 29, 2014, 06:29:55 AM

Anyone read that Gox is being saved? or am I being trolled

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mt-gox-stakeholders-to-try-reviving-exchange-2014-04-29#

These attempts have been going on for a while.. and I thought that the Japanese Court's ruling to liquidate would sniffle out any additional news or additional attempts to get the liquidation ruling reversed or revisited. In other words, it seems that the odds are pretty slim that the japanese court would reverse itself or revisit the issue on its liquidation ruling...

Quote from: Davyd05 on April 29, 2014, 07:15:55 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 29, 2014, 07:07:35 AM

Wasn't the fate of mtgox being overseen by a judge now? When I see that a judge made a ruling, then I'll pay attention.

At a separate hearing before the judge Thursday, they are expected to present their case for that agreement, which in addition to the equity stake includes prorated disbursements out of Tokyo-based Mt. Gox's holdings of 200,000 bitcoins and traditional currency. The terms would apply to all creditors worldwide, though it was signed on behalf of U.S. and Canadian members of the proposed class actions. If the U.S. court approves the plan, the investor group, Sunlot Holdings, would then seek approval of the Japanese court overseeing the bankruptcy.

new fud date besides the China bs, seems farm from concrete. I guess will see if they bring this to the Japanese court.

Saving GOX would be much better for GOX coin stakeholders and better for bitcoin as a whole, rather than liquidation of assets.. which would screw gox coin holders and would set a bad precedent for how defunct and/or corrupt exchanges are treated.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 29, 2014, 09:46:08 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 29, 2014, 07:45:27 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 29, 2014, 04:23:01 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 29, 2014, 03:15:45 AM

I don't claim to be an expert in any of these various economic theories, but there seems to be some sense in what BJA is saying - apart from his having to feel some kind of irresistible urge to dish out insults regarding the competency and/or intelligence of regular people.

I do believe that the status quo wealthy will put up quite a bit of a battle in any redistribution of wealth attempts in order that redistribution of wealth is only minimum..

In other words the status quo wealthy use any tools at their disposal by hook or by crook to ensure that redistribution of wealth does NOT leave them hanging high and dry. They may NOT be too successful with bitcoin b/c the train may leave some of them, but they are going to put up several obstacles along the way and secretly board at later stops.

I think it is quite possible bordering on probable that I am one of the incompetents I am referring to. It's not intended as an insult. It's just part of the theory.

Part of my issue, though, in your framing in competence and/or intelligence is that it seems to assume too much about the wealthy being competent or smart. Just b/c someone has a lot of power and/or resources at his/her disposal and wants to engage in a large variety of strategies to maintain the status quo and to preserve that wealth and those resources does NOT mean that the person is smarter or more competent.. even though the one with the resources and wealth may win (in spite of not being smarter or more competent).

It's not an issue of intelligence. It's an issue of knowledge. Wise management of capital is a specialized skill and not all wealthy people qualify. Austrian economists make a careful distinction between those who actually create wealth and those who acquire it through other means. We place a greater importance on the difference between makers and takers than on the difference between rich and poor. To us, the lowliest laborer makes a more valuable contribution to the economy than the greatest redistributionist. We may even oppose the status quo more than you do, but we see the political class as the greatest impediment to efficient markets.

I agree with a lot of your points in this above post - except I do NOT really understand your framework to describe yourself as a part of the Austrian economist "we."

You and I have engaged in discussions of several topics, and even through these limited experiences of mine, I have many doubts that your various intellectual positions are so circumscribed and/or disciplined as to fit within any particular school of thought, beyond the BJA for the day school of thought. I could be wrong, but that is just my assessment. Wink

Regarding your above implication of my stance on the status quo, I am neither for the status quo nor against it; however, I consider the status quo as a starting point in which anyone arguing opposition to such has the burden of proof and persuasion to establish why such departure from the status quo is the more prudent course of action and to outline a specific path(s) to guide us in our new direction away from the status quo.

Quote from: TERA on April 29, 2014, 09:32:28 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 29, 2014, 09:30:50 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 29, 2014, 09:25:51 AM

Quote from: freebit13 on April 29, 2014, 09:24:00 AM

My break-even price is $0, so I'm gonna be around here for a while Wink

My break even price is -($2500)

Congrats. Mine is only -(low 3 figures).

I am currently only 20% btc though. If I went 100% btc (like you probably are), it would be 3 figures also. It's kind of a misleading number because I could be 2% btc and have 5 figures, etc.

Actually, this is an interesting concept that really I never did consider too much in depth, and I can see why it would be useful.

So for example, if a person owned 100BTC, and his/her average price per BTC were $500, then that means that s/he would, on paper, be in the red right now and would have invested $50K into BTC, but if he she cashed out would only be able to get around $44K. 12% in the red.

Scenario 2) If that same person had a zero cost per BTC, and s/he cashed out right now, then s/he would be about $44k ahead in fiat (though may be an oxymoron to say you are ahead, if in fiat)

Scenario 3) If that same person had a negative $1,000 cost per BTC, then s/he would have already been cashed out of $100k, and s/he cashed out of the remainder of his/her coins, then s/he would be about $144k "ahead" in fiat.

That is how I read being below zero in your cost per BTC - which means for every BTC you hold, you are profitable by the value of the BTC plus the price of the BTC multiplied by the average price per BTC ahead.

Quote from: joburgtaxi on April 29, 2014, 09:25:48 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 29, 2014, 09:22:43 AM

Quote from: joburgtaxi on April 29, 2014, 09:13:09 AM

Oh man I am feeling so disillusioned with BTC at the moment just seems to be going one way and never comes back to the last consolidation/support level. Waiting for my break even price (if it ever comes) then I am outta here!!!

You are using a self defeating strategy that is impossible to win with.
1. If the downtrend continues, it will never reach your break even point while the downtrend is in force and you will hold on to a losing position indefinitely.
2. If your break even point is reached, that will mean that the downtrend has broken and it will be an uptrend, meaning it will be a terrible time to sell.

The only good moves are:
a. Commit to your position as a long term holding.
b. Sell now or at some point along the downtrend ceiling, taking a small loss. Then buy back later if/when the trend is confirmed to be reversed.

Thanks for the pick me up, I know what you are saying makes sense however my break even point ($575) seems so far away and just getting further everyday, in retrospect was a really stupid place to buy at but what is done is done.

I believe that I agree quite a bit with what Tera says in her response to you; however, it really sounds as if you over invested in BTC at the time that you invested or you do NOT have the stomach for investing in any potentially volatile assets. Your state of mind, that comes through your writing, seems to indicate a potential for panic.... .. and what are you going to do if the price never goes back to $575?

Yet, if you pull out at $575 or $585 (in order to break even b/c of various administrative costs), then you will likely NOT have learned or become stronger from the situation - although maybe your lesson would have been that you learned about yourself and that you are NOT suited for certain kinds of investments?

Quote from: joburgtaxi on April 29, 2014, 11:10:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 29, 2014, 11:00:52 AM

Quote from: joburgtaxi on April 29, 2014, 09:25:48 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 29, 2014, 09:22:43 AM

Quote from: joburgtaxi on April 29, 2014, 09:13:09 AM

Oh man I am feeling so disillusioned with BTC at the moment just seems to be going one way and never comes back to the last consolidation/support level. Waiting for my break even price (if it ever comes) then I am outta here!!!

You are using a self defeating strategy that is impossible to win with.
1. If the downtrend continues, it will never reach your break even point while the downtrend is in force and you will hold on to a losing position indefinitely.
2. If your break even point is reached, that will mean that the downtrend has broken and it will be an uptrend, meaning it will be a terrible time to sell.

The only good moves are:
a. Commit to your position as a long term holding.
b. Sell now or at some point along the downtrend ceiling, taking a small loss. Then buy back later if/when the trend is confirmed to be reversed.

Thanks for the pick me up, I know what you are saying makes sense however my break even point ($575) seems so far away and just getting further everyday, in retrospect was a really stupid place to buy at but what is done is done.

I believe that I agree quite a bit with what Tera says in her response to you; however, it really sounds as if you over invested in BTC at the time that you invested or you do NOT have the stomach for investing in any potentially volatile assets. Your state of mind, that comes through your writing, seems to indicate a potential for panic.... .. and what are you going to do if the price never goes back to $575?

Yet, if you pull out at $575 or $585 (in order to break even b/c of various administrative costs), then you will likely NOT have learned or become stronger from the situation - although maybe your lesson would have been that you learned about yourself and that you are NOT suited for certain kinds of investments?

I think if the market was not manipulated so much it would be easier to hold and stomach and rely on fundamentals for a recovery, however it seems that there are people that are hell bent on keeping the price down no matter what the cost.

In some senses I agree with you, and I have found myself quite frustrated with bitcoin prices and manipulation too. However, I believe that they can only hold the price down and manipulate downward for so long. After a while, the upward momentum will get too strong and the manipulators will NOT be able to hold back some of the upward pressures.

All markets are manipulated to some extent, and the smaller the market, the easier it will be to manipulate the market. In the case of BTC, it seems that the exchanges control the price, and there seems to be quite a bit of behind the scenes shenanigans.

Surely, that manipulation needs to be accounted for in person's assessment of the situation regarding how much when and if to invest.

If you do NOT invest in BTC, then in what are you going to invest?

Well, each of us has to decide our own tolerances and in what we chose to invest our time, money and energies.

Quote from: cbeast on April 29, 2014, 06:59:02 PM

Quote from: mooncake on April 29, 2014, 04:15:41 PM

Is this causing the rally?
http://bitcoin.mit.edu/announcing-the-mit-bitcoin-project/

They will all hodl. They need a smarter distribution system such as discounting books bought with Bitcoin or even tuition. There would still need to be a cap per student.

Really, you seem to be thinking of the wrong audience. My understanding is that the BTC is being distributed to students who graduate from MIT, which means that a large majority of these recipients are NO longer going to be students, but they are instead going to be young and budding professionals (who may or may NOT be able to find a job), who are likely continuing to be curious about the world and wanting to make some kind of dent in the ways of the world (NOT yet too jaded by frequent realities and exploitations of the working world). The ability and avenues to spend BTC on campus(es) seems to be a somewhat separate question.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 29, 2014, 08:00:51 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 29, 2014, 03:59:59 PM

Isn't it ironic that the libertarian bitcoiners, champions of laissez-faire capitalism, are betting all their life savings on the hope that the Satoshi Bitcoin will be one day the only cryptocurrency in the market, so that they can charge monopoly prices for it? Wink

I'm not betting it will be the only cruptocurrency, just the most liquid one. Charging monopoly prices would prevent that from being the case. Competition is good.

BJA : It seems to me that you are being too generous to Jorge. Jorge's assertion about early adopters wanting to benefit from a monopoly nature that may exist in bitcoin is so speculative and fanciful that it is barely worthy to be addressed.

First, hardly anyone, except for the truly fanatical are really of the belief that anytime in the near future bitcoin could replace all currencies and payment systems... and very rosey outlooks would put bitcoin replacing 25% of all currencies and payment systems (which would be more than a $25 trillion market cap and $2.5 million per BTC). These kinds of projections seem to be far above and beyond the speculations of even the most bullish of BTC enthusiasts.

Second, bitcoin could achieve some fraction of success, such as taking over less than 5% of all currencies and payment systems to cause early adopters of BTC to be rich beyond their wildest dreams and beliefs (as long as they had hung on to a fraction of their coins). In this kind of fraction of success scenario, 5% of all would put BTC at about a $5trillion market cap and would signify about $500k per BTC. Just holding 2 BTC would put someone as a BTC millionaire with only a fraction of BTC representing currencies and payment systems.

Third, I really question what the fuck difference it makes whether some early bitcoin adopters acquire some wealth. Just seems like some people are acting and whining about being butt hurt by the mere thought of early adopters potentially gaining some wealth, and even if some early adopters are able to hang onto some of their bitcoins and become rich beyond their wildest dreams, we already know that as BTC prices increase, many BTC are already going to be distributed to the already rich (the status quo rich) b/c regular people are genuinely confused, ill informed and ignorant about the value prospects of BTC,

Fourth, even if bitcoin prices were to become somewhat highly priced for regular people, so what, it does NOT matter b/c people can buy into BTC at fractions, and those fractions will continue to grow, so long as the peeps have enough foresight to HODL Dem.... and when they HODL dem for over 20 years, or 40 years or whatever happens to be their savings timeline, then the money that was held in BTC will have appreciated value at a better rate than other asset classes... so even poor people would be able to benefit by the adoption and proliferation of a BTC currency/storage of value system.

Quote from: rpietila on April 29, 2014, 08:10:51 PM

Quote from: MoreFun on April 29, 2014, 08:06:18 PM

Again, 700 BTC sell and 500 BTC buy.

Oh yes, somebody mentioned a while ago, that there might be a new super-whale in town. An entity who would like to buy at least 1% of the BTC and is now testing the price sensitivities of the platforms etc. That kind of zig-zag from obviously the same account could be explained by such testing.

How would you know if the transactions are coming from the "same account?"

Quote from: counter on April 29, 2014, 08:12:15 PM

I like the super whale talk haha. I'm very interested to see what the future hold in may..

We are almost at the future... May that is. Cheesy

Quote from: roslinpl on April 29, 2014, 08:16:38 PM

It is getting closer to 420...

I must be prepared .. xD

Are you sharpening your knives for hari kari?

Quote from: chessnut on April 29, 2014, 11:46:13 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 29, 2014, 11:27:06 PM

OMFG I MUST HAVE A BITMAC Shocked

when was this? this is the best news Ive seen for months!

macdonalds has the publicity to make bitcoin a common word, and as a bunch of crooked corporates they have vision to monopolise, increasing the value heaps. imagine if macdonalds would offer discount for paying with bitcoin Shocked

everyone would try it out for fun!

Yes!!! I wonder whether such bitcoin payment promotion goes beyond one franchise's offerings and promotions?

Quote from: windjc on April 30, 2014, 09:44:53 AM

Quote from: p0peji on April 30, 2014, 09:35:53 AM

Those bid walls on Huobi are some major BS, they get pulled every time they are the highest bidder. Wink

Everyone on here believing (hoping) that the worst is over from China.

The exchanges have yet to ADMIT anything yet.

When that happens we will have another major sell off.

Plus, NONE of this matters without fresh fiat. That is the elephant in the room right now. And not a bull amongst any of you will talk about it.

Ignore it at your own peril.

Sure, sellers have slowed down here. They always take a break and let (or help) the gullible traders pump it back up.

How high can we get this time? Grin

NO bull needs to bring up the topic, b/c you bring up the topic every other post. hehehehe... Cheesy

Quote from: p0peji on April 30, 2014, 06:23:16 PM

Quote from: elg on April 30, 2014, 06:19:13 PM

Quote from: p0peji on April 30, 2014, 06:17:15 PM

Quote from: elg on April 30, 2014, 06:16:18 PM

excuse for the noob question,

so a red candle on wisdom means more sell volume than buy volume?
and a red candle can be higher (than previous candles)due to a a higher sell price?

Just means that the opening price was higher than the closing price, it has nothing to do with volume.

thx!
but the lenght of the candle has to do with the volume i suppose

No the body of the candle (the thick part) consists of the opening and closing price, the small sticks indicate the highest or lowest price during the time in which candle is formed.

I believe that I still do NOT really understand the candles.

Let's just take the 30 minute candle.

There is an entry price and an exit price for the 30 minute period. Yes, I understand that the length of the candle will reflect all the prices in which BTC traded during that 30 minutes.

Explanation 1: The candle will be red if the exit price is lower than the entrance price and the candle will be green if the exit price is higher than the entrance price.

Explanation 2: The candle will be green if buying outpaces selling during that period and red if selling out paces buying.

Regarding Explanation 1: If the thick part of the candles reflects the price entrance and exit points, sometimes the thick part of the candle does NOT seem to match with the supposed price entrance and exit points... b/c the exit of one candle does NOT match up with the entrance of the next candle or possibly with the entrance into the next candle after that... or the thick portion of the candle is just sitting aloof and not connected to either side.. Something seems to be wrong with my understanding of these candles b/c frequently the thick parts of the candles do NOT seem to match up.

Regarding Explanation 2: This seems more plausible b/c explanation 1 does NOT seem to pan out regarding the matching of the entrance and exit locations - the thick parts of the candles.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 30, 2014, 08:16:35 PM

trainspotting: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-30/train-derails-lynchburg-massive-fire-erupts-flames-stories-high

Thursday is traditional dump day. As it coincides with a commie holiday, we might see an early sale today. or a rally. I have no idea. Dyslexic workers of the world, Untie!

I don't really like that word, "commie" b/c it seems to carry with it a lot of unnecessary baggage... maybe it is my own negative experience that is tainting my reaction?

Quote from: CoinHamster on April 30, 2014, 07:57:08 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 30, 2014, 07:50:58 PM

Quote from: p0peji on April 30, 2014, 06:23:16 PM

Quote from: elg on April 30, 2014, 06:19:13 PM

Quote from: p0peji on April 30, 2014, 06:17:15 PM

Quote from: elg on April 30, 2014, 06:16:18 PM

excuse for the noob question,

so a red candle on wisdom means more sell volume than buy volume?
and a red candle can be higher (than previous candles)due to a a higher sell price?

Just means that the opening price was higher than the closing price, it has nothing to do with volume.

thx!
but the lenght of the candle has to do with the volume i suppose

No the body of the candle (the thick part) consists of the opening and closing price, the small sticks indicate the highest or lowest price during the time in which candle is formed.

I believe that I still do NOT really understand the candles.

Let's just take the 30 minute candle.

There is an entry price and an exit price for the 30 minute period. Yes, I understand that the length of the candle will reflect all the prices in which BTC traded during that 30 minutes.

Explanation 1: The candle will be red if the exit price is lower than the entrance price and the candle will be green if the exit price is higher than the entrance price.

Explanation 2: The candle will be green if buying outpaces selling during that period and red if selling out paces buying.

Regarding Explanation 1: If the thick part of the candles reflects the price entrance and exit points, sometimes the thick part of the candle does NOT seem to match with the supposed price entrance and exit points... b/c the exit of one candle does NOT match up with the entrance of the next candle or possibly with the entrance into the next candle after that... or the thick portion of the candle is just sitting aloof and not connected to either side.. Something seems to be wrong with my understanding of these candles b/c frequently the thick parts of the candles do NOT seem to match up.

Regarding Explanation 2: This seems more plausible b/c explanation 1 does NOT seem to pan out regarding the matching of the entrance and exit locations - the thick parts of the candles.

...for explanation 1 choose: "settings" - "CandlestickHLC"

in bitcoinwisdom, we can choose "candlestick" or "candlestickHLC" Does anyone know the difference? Coinhamster: you are saying that candlestickHLC is explanation 1, but then what is "candlestick"?

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 30, 2014, 09:22:13 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 30, 2014, 09:06:29 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 30, 2014, 08:16:35 PM

trainspotting: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-30/train-derails-lynchburg-massive-fire-erupts-flames-stories-high

Thursday is traditional dump day. As it coincides with a commie holiday, we might see an early sale today. or a rally. I have no idea. Dyslexic workers of the world, Untie!

I don't really like that word, "commie" b/c it seems to carry with it a lot of unnecessary baggage... maybe it is my own negative experience that is tainting my reaction?

It's an intentional pejorative. Collectivism is fine as long as it's voluntary, but it almost never is. Most collectivists explicitly aim to gain enough power to forcibly impose their policies on everyone. In the name of freedom, of course.

There is NO real problem with making points and even exaggerating various points. However, frequently, I believe that exaggerated points are better made, if they are NOT strewn into SO MANY sentences....

Well, that may be your style... like YOU WANT TO WRITE in ALL CAPS.... he he he... Cheesy

Quote from: flynn on April 30, 2014, 09:35:52 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 30, 2014, 09:20:34 PM

in bitcoinwisdom, we can choose "candlestick" or "candlestickHLC" Does anyone know the difference? Coinhamster: you are saying that candlestickHLC is explanation 1, but then what is "candlestick"?

=> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=190722.300

That definitely clears up the issue for me, and NOW, I see why I was having confusion with the regular candlestick b/c I was thinking that the bars should be represented as a candlestickHLC in order to logically make more sense in my head. Accordingly, candlestickHLC is almost like using the exit and entrance transaction price in each 30 minute period (if that is the setting) in order that the periods flow together... which makes more sense for me.. even though such a flow is a little bit of an artificial construction.

Quote from: Pruden on April 30, 2014, 11:16:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 30, 2014, 07:50:58 PM

Explanation 1: The candle will be red if the exit price is lower than the entrance price and the candle will be green if the exit price is higher than the entrance price.

Regarding Explanation 1: If the thick part of the candles reflects the price entrance and exit points, sometimes the thick part of the candle does NOT seem to match with the supposed price entrance and exit points... b/c the exit of one candle does NOT match up with the entrance of the next candle or possibly with the entrance into the next candle after that... or the thick portion of the candle is just sitting aloof and not connected to either side.. Something seems to be wrong with my understanding of these candles b/c frequently the thick parts of the candles do NOT seem to match up.

The candle is born when the first trade is made, creating the "entrance point": the start of the candle is determined by the first trade in that time period. Sometimes the first trade is performed at quite a different price to the last price (exit point) of the previous candle. Hence, the gap.

This is frequent at illiquid or low-volume markets like this one: https://btc-e.com/exchange/usd_cnh

It's all beginning to sink in for me, now... ..... I am NOT sure whether it will improve my buying and selling success, but at least i will understand, a little better, what I am looking at.

Quote from: shmadz on May 01, 2014, 01:45:35 AM

Quote from: BitChick on May 01, 2014, 01:36:47 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on May 01, 2014, 01:29:58 AM

@BitChick...what's Risto's SSS plan?

It feels like we've been under 500 for an age but its only seven days...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

take it all with a grain of salt of course, but if the price keeps doing what historically it's been doing, then it's a pretty solid plan.

I plan on taking my second divesting at the 5000+ range, perhaps 4 or 5 coins to get a new car...

(I choose to consider the coins I sold above 1K as my "first divesting". I purposefully ignore all the coins I sold from 10 to 200 because those kind of mistakes just eat you up inside. Wink

I think the Rpietila's SSS plan is decent, and the discussion in that SSS thread is good, too.

Ultimately, a person needs a plan that contains objective triggers for taking profit distributions, and a person should customize the plan to his/her needs while, hopefully, any customization would retain many of the principles, goals and objectives outlined in the SSS plan.

Certainly, any investor could make mistakes to attempt to trade BTC when the prices are going up (prior to being sufficiently in the black - such as attempting to trade while prices are below $200); however, the raking should help to alleviate any temptation to panic sell at other times... even though tempted to use rake money to buy back in (which is probably o.k. so long as the whole BTC thing does NOT go belly up and then you have failed to spend money on yourself and to rake some of the profits).

If a person had raked at $1,000, then there really should NOT be a need to rake again while we are these kinds of BTC price doldrums. At the same time, having the next rake to be triggered at $5,000 seems to be a bit too high, especially since $5,000 is 5X the previous rake price - and if we never reach $5k (or take several years to reach $5K), then you could be kicking yourself for not raking or taking some of the profits in a more timely manner.

Hypothetically, if I were in your position, Shmadz, and I had raked some profits when BTC prices were at $1,000 then I would consider raking some MOAR profits at somewhere between $2K and $3K.... in the event that BTC prices do NOT reach $5k in the near future. Personally, I believe that we should NOT be so pie in the sky about the spaceship that we may fail to catch if we attempt to be too greedy.

Surely, none of these BTC prices matters are certain, and the raking plan that i had formulated for myself does involve some reinvestment of the raked amount upon certain triggers. I have NOT worked out the exact details, b/c it seems quite hypothetical for me at the moment ... since my BTC portfolio is still in the red... but it is good to have a tentative raking plan in place b/c if prices shoot to the moon, I have some ideas about what price points are going to trigger my raking.

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 01, 2014, 05:27:16 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 05:05:32 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 01, 2014, 04:54:57 AM

Has this 40K btc purchased news actually been confirmed by anyone as legitimate? I saw it linked on some Chinese site. Perhaps it's a Chinese pump before their next dump.

This purchase could technically happen 300 times. But who is to say it will happen even one more time? It takes more than just some occasional institutional investor to cause a reversal - there needs to be a trend of new people getting interested and actually wanting to use the technology, or a new market.

The daily chart is trumped by the weekly ema downcross. All the little patterns and indicators you are looking at will just get erased with a random giant red candle out of nowhere.

yeah it was confirmed.

how could it happen 300 times? that's wishful thinking. 300 market orders? or shall they put up a 5 million BTC buy wall on bitstamp?

I am using the daily chart. and I wish that you could guarantee that my 'little patterns' will be wiped out, but you cant. what we are seeing now believe is the market preparing for July, when for the first time legit exchanges will be opening in America. we will see all the legit money that's been held back, and perhaps china follow the lead of the USA as expected.

I'm afraid that China will not follow anything at that point, because I believe that real Chinese Exchanges will be a thing of the past at that point. The current Chinese exchanges made it too easy for common chinese people to obtain, use and invest in bitcoin. The Chinese government does not want that. I don't think they will ban bitcoin all together, they just seriously do not want the common people to get involved with bitcoin. They won't ban it per se for several reasons. First it will be seen as a backward move. Second they have industry (miners and hardware/chips manufacturers) that they want to survive and profit from bitcoin. Maybe they also want someone to profit from Bitcoin speculation, just not the common man. I think the writing is on the wall. Their policy is a major setback for bitcoin adoption in China. I am still hoping that Bitcoin will be powerful enough to pull through, but it is not looking good at the moment in my opinion.

Another month or two of this various bull - sheit... and many of us will be completely disheartened. Then, BTC will be ready for its price rally.

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 05:28:44 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 05:28:17 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 05:22:32 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 05:19:39 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 05:06:09 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 05:00:06 AM

A Gambling company. Casino owners know value? I lived in Vegas before the great 2008 Crash. I assure you they do not.

I said Gaming, not Gambling.

Yes, your attempt at spin is obvious.

hmmm not sure whats your point.

a gaming company buying bitcoin is uber bullish. the innovators have foreseen that this would be one of the first applications in the real world. ithe next wave is beginning.

I am not denying that gambling is an excellent use case for Bitcoin. I am saying that casino operators aren't any better at market timing than anyone else.

I said GAMING.

DDDDOOOOOONNNNTTT YELL. Cheesy

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 05:53:01 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 05:51:22 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 05:49:28 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 05:46:37 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 05:44:28 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 05:42:48 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 05:16:14 AM

you sold at 430. I bought at 430. you lose.

My average buy in is <$40. My average sell price is ~$400. If that's losing, I'll take it.

How about this one.

I trade 1000s of bitcoins. Chessnut trades single digits. If that's losing, I'll take it.

Billy, I wasnt accusing you, it's windjc that I have that argument with.
yeah no problem windjc. you are good to have around.

Hey Chessnut. You wanna make a bet on whether Houbi rallys past 3500 from here? Lets say I win if Houbi makes lows lower than 2555 and you win it makes gets to 3255 first. We are 50% right in between the two at the moment.

I'll bet any amount you can afford.

For fun.

Im already betting on the market. Im not going to mess around with escrow, unless you want to honour the bet.

Mess around with escrow? What does that mean? Sounds like a silly excuse.

I will honour the bet if we agree. Will you?

JUST bet like .01 BTC or some symbolic lesser amount. Then NO need to worry about escrow.. do it on the HONOR system... if there is any such thing left in this internet world.

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 06:00:29 AM

Quote from: Dabs on May 01, 2014, 05:58:43 AM

PM me if anyone needs escrow.

I get tired just keeping up on this thread and end up skipping entire pages.

Apparently bulls are incapable of following through on a bet and terrified of escrow. They sure are good at posting all kinds of charts and lines about how we are going "Up, Up, Up!" though.

I would bet you, but i never feel confident enough about BTC price direction...

Additionally, I usually do NOT say that I will bet anyone... unless i feel pretty confident. I would feel more comfortable betting on some kind of long term thing rather than short term thing.. such as BTC will make it to $600 before making it to $320... but I am NOT even sure that I feel confident about that, at the moment.

Quote from: TERA on May 01, 2014, 06:01:40 AM

I don't understand why a bull would want to make a bet when they can just hold bitcoins securely. A bear would be more likely to want to make a bet because to short the market he has to trust a broker the whole time.

Yeah... maybe in the end, BEARS are more likely to bet b/c they are hedging... a lot of the bulls are already betting by HODLIN....

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 06:11:39 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 06:09:57 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 06:04:00 AM

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106.

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

And if you are talking about a betting market giving you the EXACT same bet for 1 to 3 odds then you are a fool not to take it if you even believe half of what you are posting in here.

If you use bitcoins as your measuring amount, then if bitcoins go up, the winner will win more and if the price goes down the loser will lose less. So, odds already seem to be built in favor of the one who is betting that the price will go up. No?

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 06:18:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 01, 2014, 06:16:27 AM

If you use bitcoins as your measuring amount, then if bitcoins go up, the winner will win more and if the price goes down the loser will lose less. So, odds already seem to be built in favor of the one who is betting that the price will go up. No?

Thats true, the odds would be 1:x-15% lets say, 1:4-15%.

I may be missing something, but my point is that if you are betting in BTC... then the BTC will be worth more upon winning and the BTC will be worth less upon losing. Why would you need additional odds, unless you are going to measure the bet in dollars... so say that you want to bet the equivalent of $20. If you pick a small enough amount, then it does NOT really matter about the money, you are purely betting against your nemesis about which one of you is correct about the direction of the market.

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 06:23:43 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 06:21:03 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 06:18:40 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 06:15:51 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 06:11:39 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 01, 2014, 06:09:57 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 06:04:00 AM

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106.

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

If a go long here, ad it goes to 3500, I make $300. if I short here, and it goes to 2500, I make $100. not to mention, I can reverse my position if fundamentals change on the market, I cant reverse my bet. You better offer me 4:1 odds at least or it's not worth my time.

If you make a bet you believe in based on 100% of your posts you make a 100% profit on <15% market move.

Thats better than doing long or going short.

You are a fucking idiot.

if you dont offer me 1:4 odds, I can use the capital on leverage to make more money on the same bet, at lower risk too. fact. Im not going to stuff around like this.

And the moral of the story here folks is that Chessnut would take money out on leverage to do this trade if he truly believed we were going to break out of this bear market. But he doesn't and so he avoids doing that and he avoids my bet offer.

Always watch what people DO not what they SAY.

There will likely be plenty of opportunities for future bets on the direction of BTC (or its prices), but I really think that if someone feels fairly confident about the direction of the BTC market, that person should be willing to enter into some small bet... even the equivalent of a few dollars.... then no need to worry about escrow or about whether you could be leveraging that money or whatever,.. though it may be safer, even with the equivalent of a few dollars to safeguard it with a third party... ...

If we are in the business of investing in BTC, then we all should have a few dollars that we could spare and even tie up for a period. if we are expressing considerable confidence about our prediction(s)... When it comes to short-term BTC prices, I rarely have my moments of confidence.

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 07:35:49 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 07:26:56 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 07:17:18 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 07:14:27 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 01, 2014, 07:03:23 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 06:57:14 AM

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

Well, I'm bored too, lol.

But I like this bet even less than you. I can't take that bet, but keep coming up with some and I am sure I might bite at one.

How about this: By May 15 GMT midnight, if we've gone over $500 AND below $400 (in either order), you owe me 0.2 BTC and otherwise I owe you 0.1 BTC

So now you are going to take the high volatility side of the bet?

I will take this bet. If only because if we have that much volatility in the market in the next 2 weeks I will make so much that .2 btc won't even matter. And if its boring, then at least I get a .1 btc consolation price. Cheesy

I like it. It's a really good bet, and makes the recently boring BTC market a bit more interesting........

I witnesseth... this bet... and it seems to be on the honor system by two long-time posters. If either of you reneg on paying the bet (if you lose), your name will be MUDD in this thread. Cheesy

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 11:03:44 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on May 01, 2014, 10:51:24 AM

yer cause the FBI is going to drop a market sell on Stamp Huh

Bitcoins are fungible. Whoever is buying FBI coins will not be buying on Stamp, so the effect is the same. Whoever is buying FBI coins might sell on stamp, however.

Let's just say that if I were to buy 100,000 BTC at auction from the FBI for let's say 20 million dollars, you're damn right I'd dump a few thousand of them on the exchanges. That is a real downside risk.

Nobody is getting 100K BTC for more than 50% off of retail. Bitcoin is just waaaaaayyy too liquid for that level of a discount. They would be getting fucked up lucky if they were able to get 100K BTC for 20% off of retail, maximum. More likely anyone is going to be paying at least 90 to 95% retail on such a liquid asset.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 11:48:30 AM

Quote from: KeyserSoze on May 01, 2014, 11:42:30 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 11:34:21 AM

The Feds claim they've already sold over 3 Million dollars worth. The whom? does anybody know?

If they're smart they sold the coins all over the country via LocalBitcoins.com so they could then arrest all those people for operating an exchange without a license or disregarding AML rules.

That's entrapment. Local cops do that kind of shit all the time, but the Feds at least usually pretend to follow the rules when they could so easily be shown to be actually initiating the "crime" they are prosecuting.

For a guy who is usually propagating anti-federal government rhetoric, you (BJA) surely are being inconsistent here to be giving the fed govt the benefit of the doubt in their policing shenanigans.

This is one of the frequent themes that I have witnessed with supposed libertarians who will want to get rid of the fed govt when it comes to its role in providing a vast array of social services - however, when it comes to various policing functions or property protection functions, some anti-govt folks seem to harbor some kind of blindness that the federal government is more likely to follow rules. Maybe I am being too hard on libertarians, here, and this inconsistent viewpoint is merely yours, BJA.

You are adjusting the facts to attempt to fit your assertion, but it still remains quite fantastical to assert that any major discount will be achieved through a mass sale of BTC.

Quote from: octaft on May 01, 2014, 03:23:04 PM

See my above post: I don't think it's a problem as long as bitcoins are legal, and I would not at all be worried about buying or selling bitcoins on localbitcoins. All I'm saying is if bitcoins became illegal, catching you purchasing or selling them through an ad would not be considered entrapment under current law.

I believe that this entrapment only becomes an issue if you are selling BTC on Localbitcoins, and your buyer starts to tell you that they are going to do illegal activities with the bitcoins. I don't know why the fuck anyone would want to tell me what they are going to do with their bitcoins b/c I could give one flying fuck about how they are going to use them. However, if someone starts to tell you what they are going to do and it is illegal activities, just refuse to sell to those people. They may be feds. The feds need the piece of information that you knowingly sold to someone who is engaged in illegal activities to facilitate their operation and you become an agent... I think that this whole situation and govt conduct is bullshit in this area, but that is what the feds are doing in order to charge BTC sellers with crimes.

Quote from: freebit13 on May 01, 2014, 03:42:17 PM

Quote from: octaft on May 01, 2014, 03:33:24 PM

You do realize that nothing needs to be certain, only "beyond a reasonable doubt" to get a conviction, right? If someone goes on a website designed to distribute something, then purchases that something after seeing an ad, it's pretty reasonable to think that they intended to buy that something regardless of which ad they read.

To say that it is an unreasonable assumption would surely be independent thought, but independent does not mean correct.

EDIT: Let's try this with something legal that isn't bitcoin to see if it sticks. I want to buy the most beautiful bow for my daughters birthday present. I go on etsy or some shit and start looking up bows. I see this one ad with this terrific bow, it's so beautiful and perfect! So I buy it. Wouldn't it be reasonable to say if I didn't see that ad, I would not have simply given up on buying bows, but rather would have bought a different bow?

Let's say a friend of mine told me about this site localbitcoins.com and I went there to go and see what this bitcoin thing was all about with no intention to buy, but I saw this ad (put up by the FBI) and I just couldn't resist because it was just so easy.

There are probably 100's of examples for both arguments, so it would all go down to your day in court and how you handle yourself, I guess.

It is a pretty rare case that would make it all the way to court. You are going to feel a lot of pressure to settle. The facts have to be that you are either saying that you are engaging in illegal activity or facilitating someone else to engage in illegal activity. To protect yourself, you should NOT be engaging in transactions with people who are telling you that they plan to engage in illegal activities with their BTC.

Quote from: aminorex on May 01, 2014, 03:49:24 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 04:36:45 AM

As long as BTC is concentrated in the hands of people who have a negative fiat cash flow outside of BTC appreciation, selling pressure will continue.

But it isn't. Almost no one holding BTC is unable to accumulate more.

If you invested balls to the walls in BTC at higher amounts, then you may not have any fiat left that you can invest.

Quote from: freebit13 on May 01, 2014, 03:53:46 PM

Quote from: octaft on May 01, 2014, 03:49:00 PM

One of the biggest questions is whether you tried to resist the crime, so the fact that you "couldn't resist" necessarily makes it not entrapment.

Yeah, I tried to resist, I was mentally torn for hours before actually buying, I just couldn't resist; prove to me that I wasn't. /sarcasm

You could always ask everyone if they are the FBI before buying coins from them, that should keep you in the clear Grin

Asking whether someone is FBI is NOT going to help.. b/c they will lie to you. Just do NOT talk about illegal activities with strangers while you are engaged in BTC transactions whether you are buying BTC or selling BTC... I could give a flying fuck about their multiple illegal activities that they want to do, but if they are wanting to tell me about their multiple illegal activities, then that should raise a red flag. Additionally, I am NOT going to volunteer my intentions to engage in illegal activities (if I happen to have any such intentions).

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 04:06:49 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on May 01, 2014, 03:53:51 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 03:34:29 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on May 01, 2014, 03:14:18 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 02:56:35 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on May 01, 2014, 02:49:58 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 01, 2014, 01:50:29 PM

Because you're buying the oil from Iran.

Who like the rest of the world primarily trade oil in the world reserve currency which it just so happens you are able to send them.

Iranian banks have been cut off from the international bank of settlements due to sanctions and pressure from the U.S. gov.

Right and I'm sure the only account that an Iranian oil tycoon has is an Iranian bank account.

You're really missing the point. If the seller demands to do the deal in bitcoin for any or no reason, and you don't want to blow the deal, you meet the seller's terms. In extremely large transactions, those terms will likely include provisions for fluctuating value of the currency.

Yeah I agree with that but if the issue for you aquiring the BTC is that its immpossible to buy that many then whoever is selling isnt going to get anyone able to meet their terms. The seller wants to sell as much as a buyer wants to buy, requring an unreasonable or immpossible payment method isn't going to get you any buyers, period.

Going back to the original point how does an alternative crypto solve this problem?

As I already said, an alt coin would not likely solve this particular problem. A Bitcoin derivative like a futures contract could. The seller could want a bitcoin payment to evade sanctions, avoid charge-backs, or any number of reasons or combination of reasons.

It is NOT a buyer or a seller that sets the terms, but the two parties... and maybe more likely a buyer would attempt to drive such a deal if the buyer has a lot of BTC to offload. Sellers are more likely to take any payment they could get.. but they may prefer bitcoins or they may be willing to provide more favorable terms if the deal is done in BTC.

Quote from: adamstgBit on May 01, 2014, 04:34:03 PM

Quote from: howzar on May 01, 2014, 04:32:03 PM

By the way is this the longest thread ever created?

on the entire internet

yes.

How would you know that?

Quote from: Richy_T on May 01, 2014, 05:35:21 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 01, 2014, 02:21:17 PM

For a guy who is usually propagating anti-federal government rhetoric, you (BJA) surely are being inconsistent here to be giving the fed govt the benefit of the doubt in their policing shenanigans.

This is one of the frequent themes that I have witnessed with supposed libertarians who will want to get rid of the fed govt when it comes to its role in providing a vast array of social services - however, when it comes to various policing functions or property protection functions, some anti-govt folks seem to harbor some kind of blindness that the federal government is more likely to follow rules. Maybe I am being too hard on libertarians, here, and this inconsistent viewpoint is merely yours, BJA.

You are adjusting the facts to attempt to fit your assertion, but it still remains quite fantastical to assert that any major discount will be achieved through a mass sale of BTC.

To me, entrapment is encouraging someone to commit a crime that they would not have otherwise committed. Now, I disagree with some of the examples given (regardless that they are supposedly from authoritative sources. Selling someone drugs because they ask for them for their sick mother is entrapment) but I would say that advertising on the pre-existing localbitcoins.com would not. Hanging out at a libertarian political meeting and trying to sell bitcoins to the participants would be however.

My point in the above statement is that BJA is all over the place, and then he seems to be engaging in some kind of defense of the feds to suggest that they are above some kinds of manipulative behavior, which they are NOT. Surely entrapment is a defense, after you find out that there is a snitch in the group, and you are less likely to have to raise such a defense if you strive to avoid getting into those kinds of situations... maybe easier said than done.. but if some stranger is telling you that s/he is planning to engage in illegal activities, refuse to deal with that person.

Quote from: igorr on May 01, 2014, 08:28:56 PM

Quote from: mah87 on May 01, 2014, 08:27:48 PM

Quote from: techboy on May 01, 2014, 08:21:34 PM

Are we seeing now the lowest point in bitcoin price for the next 6 months?

Probably the highest point in the next 6months.

100% true, never again $ 500

I am sure that a lot of posters in this thread would be willing to bet you on your proclamation of certainty.. if you were so brave to put your money where your mouth is... which I doubt you would b/c you do NOT even believe it yourself.

Quote from: zoinky on May 01, 2014, 08:29:42 PM

Quote from: Odalv on May 01, 2014, 08:11:11 PM

Quote from: igorr on May 01, 2014, 07:49:25 PM

135000 new bitcoin every month x current exchange rate $ 450 = $ 60750000 every month
someone needs to pay it with real money. But who ?

There are 4,000 new accounts every day only at My Wallet

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

4,000 * 30 = 120,000 new adopters monthly ... not enough bitcoins for everyone.

This is skewed greatly by the fact that their developer API allows you to create a fresh MyWallet for each customer that comes to your site/service. So this may just mean a lot of people are just signing up to a new service that is backed by Blockchain.info's MyWallet service but no necessarily a new adopter, let alone adding additional value to the market.

Yeah, but it is still just one service, and even if only 1/4 are new adopters, that is 30,000 new adopters a month. To my knowledge, I had NOT registered any wallet on blockchain info until 4 months after I had been buying bitcoin(s). There are likely a lot of ways to get into bitcoin without creating a wallet with blockchain.info... so maybe overall, the number of 120,000 per month is an accurate roundabout and overall estimate for the number of new users per month?

I believe that all the estimates remain that bitcoin adoption is increasing, in spite several downfalls and impediments.. but no one really knows the exact numbers, even though there remain several estimations...

Quote from: donut on May 01, 2014, 08:45:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 01, 2014, 08:37:06 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on May 01, 2014, 04:34:03 PM

Quote from: howzar on May 01, 2014, 04:32:03 PM

By the way is this the longest thread ever created?

on the entire internet

yes.

How would you know that?

Obviously he read the entire internet.

Adam is a bot... OM F'n G !!!!!

Quote from: MoreFun on May 01, 2014, 09:28:18 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 01, 2014, 09:26:03 PM

Quote from: donut on May 01, 2014, 08:45:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 01, 2014, 08:37:06 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on May 01, 2014, 04:34:03 PM

Quote from: howzar on May 01, 2014, 04:32:03 PM

By the way is this the longest thread ever created?

on the entire internet

yes.

How would you know that?

Obviously he read the entire internet.

Adam is a bot... OM F'n G !!!!!

Are you saying this is a bottOM?

Hehehehe...

That may be why Adam OM is always proclaiming Buy, Buy, Buy.... he can ONLY see bottOMs.... Cheesy

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 01, 2014, 11:43:16 PM

Quote from: cech4204a on May 01, 2014, 11:33:02 PM

in short, will price rise or drop?

Note that those "Chinese Slumber" predictions are tests of a conjecture about the Huobi prices at late night local time being more predictable than prices at other exchanges or other times, or daily mean prices. They are not meant to be taken as trading advice; readers beware.

That said, the prediction is at the top of the post: it says that the price at Huobi at the stated hour (~19:30 UTC) will be 2837 CNY, sightly higher than the last price at the same hour (2818 CNY). The method does not try to predict the price between those two moments.

Possibly, Jorge's converting into a BTC bull? Cheesy

Once Jorge converts into a BTC bull, if that happens, then for sure we will be on our way (__________[fill in da blank]_________)

Quote from: w0lverine on May 02, 2014, 12:01:35 AM

Quote from: Odalv on May 01, 2014, 10:14:36 PM

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2014 - 500K new wallets (this is assuming that about 2/3 of the (1.5million per year) new wallets on the blockchain are NOT really new people into BTC - so I am starting with a fairly low number that is approximately 1/3 of the total number of new wallets)
2015 - 1 million new wallets
2016 - 2 million new wallets
2017 - 4 million new wallets
2018 - 8 million new wallets
2019 - 16 million new wallets
2020 - 32 million new wallets
2021 - 64 million new wallets
2022 - 128 million new wallets
2023 - 256 million new wallets

Total in 10 years = 511.5 million which is fairly conservative and a low estimation and still only about 5% of the population - which really leaves considerable more room for growth. If you continue with the projection of doubling for another 10 years, then you would reach saturation around 2026 or 2027.. and growth would have to slow down considerably around that time... b/c you would run out of people... though there may be other kinds of entities that would substitute for people.. so you may get a few more years out of the growth.. but likely the whole growth matter would diminish around mid-2020s with a doubling of new wallets every year.

2024 - 512 million new wallets
2025 - 1 billion new wallets
2026 - 2 billion new wallets
2027 - 4 billion new wallets
2028 - 8 billion new wallets
2029 - 16 billion new wallets
2030 - 32 billion new wallets
2031 - 64 billion new wallets
2032 - 128 billion new wallets
2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

Quote from: octaft on May 02, 2014, 02:10:37 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 02, 2014, 12:55:06 AM

Quote from: w0lverine on May 02, 2014, 12:01:35 AM

Quote from: Odalv on May 01, 2014, 10:14:36 PM

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2014 - 500K new wallets (this is assuming that about 2/3 of the (1.5million per year) new wallets on the blockchain are NOT really new people into BTC - so I am starting with a fairly low number that is approximately 1/3 of the total number of new wallets)
2015 - 1 million new wallets
2016 - 2 million new wallets
2017 - 4 million new wallets
2018 - 8 million new wallets
2019 - 16 million new wallets
2020 - 32 million new wallets
2021 - 64 million new wallets
2022 - 128 million new wallets
2023 - 256 million new wallets

Total in 10 years = 511.5 million which is fairly conservative and a low estimation and still only about 5% of the population - which really leaves considerable more room for growth. If you continue with the projection of doubling for another 10 years, then you would reach saturation around 2026 or 2027.. and growth would have to slow down considerably around that time... b/c you would run out of people... though there may be other kinds of entities that would substitute for people.. so you may get a few more years out of the growth.. but likely the whole growth matter would diminish around mid-2020s with a doubling of new wallets every year.

2024 - 512 million new wallets
2025 - 1 billion new wallets
2026 - 2 billion new wallets
2027 - 4 billion new wallets
2028 - 8 billion new wallets
2029 - 16 billion new wallets
2030 - 32 billion new wallets
2031 - 64 billion new wallets
2032 - 128 billion new wallets
2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

Dude, seriously, 256 billion new wallets in 2033? That'd be like 25-30 wallets for each person on Earth. To even use the words "conservative" and "diminish" in this context...well I'd love to see what your not so conservative numbers are.

Dude... he heh he... Cheesy

The "conservative" nature of my estimate would apply to the first few years, and mostly to the first 10 years, or at least until the market would become saturated in the mid 2020s at the latest. Probably I should have clarified that a little better?

Nonetheless, I thought that my explanation would have clarified that I was starting out conservative.. .but, apparently NOT... If I were to revise such estimate, then I would remove the years after 2026 b/c probably a different growth rate would apply at that time. I would NOT expect continued exponential growth past the half way mark of market saturation (which would likely be around mid-2020s in that projection).

I kept the numbers going upward at the same doubling rate, merely to demonstrate their direction if we were to keep the same doubling projection, if the rate were to remain the same doubling, every year.... but we all know the population (and/or markets are NOT likely to continue to be able to absorb such growth rate...

Hopefully this clarifies for you... even though, based on your response, I question whether you had truly attempted to grapple with the main point(s) that I was attempting to make in the post.

Quote from: adamstgBit on May 02, 2014, 02:14:57 AM

are you a basic bitch?

The video seems to incorporate quite a bit of libertarian phraseology in its defending and defining of bitcoin.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 02, 2014, 02:14:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 02, 2014, 12:55:06 AM

2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Does that mean that in 2033 every bitcoin user will own 2.56 billion wallets? Why would he need that?

Grin

It could mean that or it could mean that a population of between 5-10 billion people would have 25-50 wallets per person. As we already know, wallets could be created by organizations or governments or even be attributed to entities that may NOT yet exist (such as a trust that would describe how the bitcoins in the wallet would be distributed upon the triggering of some future event(s)). Personally, as I stated in my previous post, i believe the market would become saturated much before 2033, which would cause considerable slowing down of the growth rate or would cause the model or the growth curve to shift.

Quote from: xulescu on May 02, 2014, 03:33:24 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 02, 2014, 03:29:23 AM

Quote from: thezerg on May 02, 2014, 03:20:43 AM

Your semi-autonomous personal information devices each hold some of your coins and use them for stuff like micro-payments to news sites, the purchase of music. Your fridge automatically reorders the foods you've eaten each month.

Your wallet app automatically creates 100'000 new wallets every time you use it, to inflate the app's usage statistics. Grin

This comment is retarded. If companies are considered economic entities on their own, independent of the humans who run them, why wouldn't your fridge be an economic entity on its own, independent of the humans it runs for? Why wouldn't people's t-shirts make them money by displaying ads? Each t-shirt would likely have its own wallet. Bitcoin injects steroids into ubiquitous computing.

Some of the ideas and the responses, here are retarded; however, the overall concept that there may be multiple ways to create wallets that may be tied to people, organizations, governments or trusts is NOT retarded and within our current possibilities to conceptualize.

Quote from: octaft on May 02, 2014, 03:41:17 AM

Quote from: thezerg on May 02, 2014, 03:20:43 AM

Quote from: octaft on May 02, 2014, 02:10:37 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 02, 2014, 12:55:06 AM

Quote from: w0lverine on May 02, 2014, 12:01:35 AM

Quote from: Odalv on May 01, 2014, 10:14:36 PM

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

Dude, seriously, 256 billion new wallets in 2033? That'd be like 25-30 wallets for each person on Earth. To even use the words "conservative" and "diminish" in this context...well I'd love to see what your not so conservative numbers are.

Your semi-autonomous personal information devices each hold some of your coins and use them for stuff like micro-payments to news sites, the purchase of music. Your fridge automatically reorders the foods you've eaten each month.

Considering this is the absolute wet dream of any bitcoin holder, in what way is it conservative again? Not to mention that, considering not everyone in the entire world will be using bitcoin, it assumes probably closer to 100 wallets per person. How many people do you know with 90 appliances, let alone 90 appliances that could make use of this technology? Maybe your toaster will be reordering bread?

Dude... eh hehehhehehe Cheesy

Did you see that I already responded to your question about what I meant by conservative>>>>>>>> in the above post>>>>>> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6502505#msg6502505

Quote from: octaft on May 02, 2014, 03:52:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 02, 2014, 03:48:53 AM

Quote from: octaft on May 02, 2014, 03:41:17 AM

Quote from: thezerg on May 02, 2014, 03:20:43 AM

Quote from: octaft on May 02, 2014, 02:10:37 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 02, 2014, 12:55:06 AM

Quote from: w0lverine on May 02, 2014, 12:01:35 AM

Quote from: Odalv on May 01, 2014, 10:14:36 PM

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

Dude, seriously, 256 billion new wallets in 2033? That'd be like 25-30 wallets for each person on Earth. To even use the words "conservative" and "diminish" in this context...well I'd love to see what your not so conservative numbers are.

Your semi-autonomous personal information devices each hold some of your coins and use them for stuff like micro-payments to news sites, the purchase of music. Your fridge automatically reorders the foods you've eaten each month.

Considering this is the absolute wet dream of any bitcoin holder, in what way is it conservative again? Not to mention that, considering not everyone in the entire world will be using bitcoin, it assumes probably closer to 100 wallets per person. How many people do you know with 90 appliances, let alone 90 appliances that could make use of this technology? Maybe your toaster will be reordering bread?

Dude... eh hehehhehehe Cheesy

Did you see that I already responded to your question about what I meant by conservative>>>>>>>> in the above post>>>>>> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6502505#msg6502505

No I didn't, but I think the most important consideration here is will your toaster reorder bread? And no wheat! No way I'm spending my hard-earned appliance-bitcoins out of any one of my 300 wallets on that bullshit!

Now, it sounds as if you are arguing merely for the sake of arguing.. b/c you are getting into the weeds about some side tangent comment that was made. NONE OF US really know any specifics about various future applications and whether they would be feasible or even be developed in whatever bitcoin eco-system that were to evolve - if one even evolves. So, there are some examples about how there could continue to be bitcion wallets developing beyond the number of people in the world, and even 256 billion would be 25-50 wallets per person (which certainly seems like too much to me, as well, but it is NOT 300 wallets per person alive)..

Quote from: hyphymikey on May 02, 2014, 03:54:35 AM

at first I bought bitcoin to make me rich, I guess I am a basic bitch.

If you bought your BTC below $100, you may be a rich bitch.

If you bought your BTC over $1000, then you may merely be a bitchy bitch.

Quote from: Richy_T on May 02, 2014, 01:52:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 02, 2014, 03:41:28 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 02, 2014, 02:14:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 02, 2014, 12:55:06 AM

2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Does that mean that in 2033 every bitcoin user will own 2.56 billion wallets? Why would he need that?

Grin

It could mean that or it could mean that a population of between 5-10 billion people would have 25-50 wallets per person. As we already know, wallets could be created by organizations or governments or even be attributed to entities that may NOT yet exist (such as a trust that would describe how the bitcoins in the wallet would be distributed upon the triggering of some future event(s)). Personally, as I stated in my previous post, i believe the market would become saturated much before 2033, which would cause considerable slowing down of the growth rate or would cause the model or the growth curve to shift.

I am skeptical but many were also skeptical of Moore's law. If it does happen, I'd be happy for the effect to be named after you.

I appreciate your sense of humor, here. Cheesy

Really, I was NOT being very original in my 2(x) exponential growth projection. I was merely attempting to illustrate an example of the difference between exponential growth of 2x as compared with the earlier suggestion of linear growth of 11 million wallets per year.

The exponential growth model seems more realistic b/c of the networking effect and the large growth possibilities.

I suspect, however, that any such exponential growth would not follow exactly a 2x pattern, and there may be a sort of exponential growth bell curve - or maybe instead higher exponential growth in the beginning that slowly tapers as it matures, especially tapering when various saturation points are reached.

Nonetheless there could be periods of lower or higher multiples of exponential growth of bitcoin wallets, but for ease of reference, 2x exponential growth works well to illustrate the concept.

Quote from: coins101 on May 02, 2014, 10:59:29 PM

Quote from: Krabby on May 02, 2014, 10:20:43 PM

What happens when the US 'bans' bitcoin?

China will un-ban bitcoin

Maybe there will be an announcement at the May 10 Bitcoin summit?

Quote from: kurious on May 03, 2014, 11:52:53 AM

The poll is missing 'boredom' or perhaps 'frustration' none of the terms really fits these kind of feelings.

I can't be the only one who feels like it's dragging along somewhat indecisively...

I really liked the idea behind the poll, too.... However, I agree with some of the posters here, that there may have been some common feelings that were NOT quite captured... but reflective of how many poster feel.... Certainly, since this downtrend has been going on for a couple of months, my feelings have changed over time. For example, sometimes I feel manipulated.. even though that may be a better description of how bitcoin should feel, if bitcoin were to have feelings... ..... maybe even honey badgers have feelings? Cheesy

Quote from: kurious on May 03, 2014, 11:57:21 AM

Quote from: xulescu on May 03, 2014, 08:23:10 AM

Quote from: Mythul on May 03, 2014, 07:57:00 AM

Random thought, how would a war in Europe affect Bitcoin ? 2014 seems to be a really really bad year so far !

(snip)

.... But completely hijacking the conversation, I posted earlier a link to another thread about Sunlot and you-cannot-make-this-shit-up shenanigans. I got a few rightfully concerned replies, but no real discussion. Does nobody care? I think it's a serious indirect risk to the Bitcoin economy...

I read Phineas G's stuff on Sunlot and it was quite shocking - it does seem like the SaveGox is more SavageGox to me - I really can't see the kind of people involved doing anything other than a cynical raid on assets and laughing all the way to the bank, or that Spanish villa some of their associates seem to enjoy.

Equally surprised no one seemed to comment TBH.

How can you really know that there is merely going to be a plan to raid the assets.

If the "savior" of GOX entity goes into the court and makes a specific and plausible and persuasive plan that shows an intention to recover and preserve assets and to reopen the exchange with those kinds of intents, then that kind of information may be sufficient in order to persuade the court to try that avenue rather than going down a liquidation path.

Quote from: Blitz on May 03, 2014, 04:40:14 PM

Quote from: chromosoma on May 03, 2014, 04:35:29 PM

Quote from: dunchy on May 03, 2014, 04:29:39 PM

Quote from: chromosoma on May 03, 2014, 04:26:36 PM

I told you few days ago, that bitstamp is going to be closed due to some illegal activities. That wasnt just a rumor;)

Please, enlighten us.

as far as my sources teold me. Bitstamp is involved is some illegal activity, presumably some paedophile groups use bitstamp to exchange money. That is why bitstamp is going to be closed for investigation etc next week or so.

If (or really, WHEN) it turns untrue, I hope someone here will remind me to have this guy banned.

that is almost like a bet. It needs a timeline.. maybe one or two weeks (or NO later than the end of the month), if the closing of stamp does NOT happen, then Chromosoma = banned... he definitely has been spreading a lot of NON-substantive bitcoin is dead FUD>>>>> that's for sure.

Quote from: podyx on May 03, 2014, 05:22:54 PM

@simmo77

I like rpietila and windjc although windjc might be overly pessimistic because of loss of millions

Was it loss of millions or failure to profit by millions?

Quote from: podyx on May 03, 2014, 07:36:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 03, 2014, 07:24:57 PM

Quote from: podyx on May 03, 2014, 05:22:54 PM

@simmo77

I like rpietila and windjc although windjc might be overly pessimistic because of loss of millions

Was it loss of millions or failure to profit by millions?

I recall him saying he was too naive and stupid to not short at 1.1k
so I guess he meant failure to profit by millions

Yes... there is a much different dynamic when a person is trading in the black versus in trading while being in the red......

Quote from: octaft on May 03, 2014, 07:52:32 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 03, 2014, 07:19:39 PM

Quote from: Blitz on May 03, 2014, 04:40:14 PM

Quote from: chromosoma on May 03, 2014, 04:35:29 PM

Quote from: dunchy on May 03, 2014, 04:29:39 PM

Quote from: chromosoma on May 03, 2014, 04:26:36 PM

I told you few days ago, that bitstamp is going to be closed due to some illegal activities. That wasnt just a rumor;)

Please, enlighten us.

as far as my sources teold me. Bitstamp is involved is some illegal activity, presumably some paedophile groups use bitstamp to exchange money. That is why bitstamp is going to be closed for investigation etc next week or so.

If (or really, WHEN) it turns untrue, I hope someone here will remind me to have this guy banned.

that is almost like a bet. It needs a timeline.. maybe one or two weeks (or NO later than the end of the month), if the closing of stamp does NOT happen, then Chromosoma = banned... he definitely has been spreading a lot of NON-substantive bitcoin is dead FUD>>>>> that's for sure.

For all you know he could have been told a lie from someone else and truly believed it.

I wonder why you have this seeming burning desire to defend FUD spreaders. Chromosoma seems to have developed a FUD spreading pattern of behavior. Further, when a poster is making outrageous and difficult to believe claims, s/he should have some kind of affirmative obligation to provide some sources for that claim.. . or at least some logic concerning why the claim is plausible.. .. IN this case, Chromosoma is NOT only claiming plausible, but s/he is claiming high likelihood bordering on certainty that Stamp will be closing.... Probably, we are giving him/her too much credibility and airtime by merely discussing such baloney assertions.

Quote from: TERA on May 03, 2014, 09:43:13 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 03, 2014, 09:30:34 PM

Quote from: octaft on May 03, 2014, 07:52:32 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 03, 2014, 07:19:39 PM

Quote from: Blitz on May 03, 2014, 04:40:14 PM

Quote from: chromosoma on May 03, 2014, 04:35:29 PM

Quote from: dunchy on May 03, 2014, 04:29:39 PM

Quote from: chromosoma on May 03, 2014, 04:26:36 PM

I told you few days ago, that bitstamp is going to be closed due to some illegal activities. That wasnt just a rumor;)

Please, enlighten us.

as far as my sources teold me. Bitstamp is involved is some illegal activity, presumably some paedophile groups use bitstamp to exchange money. That is why bitstamp is going to be closed for investigation etc next week or so.

If (or really, WHEN) it turns untrue, I hope someone here will remind me to have this guy banned.

that is almost like a bet. It needs a timeline.. maybe one or two weeks (or NO later than the end of the month), if the closing of stamp does NOT happen, then Chromosoma = banned... he definitely has been spreading a lot of NON-substantive bitcoin is dead FUD>>>>> that's for sure.

For all you know he could have been told a lie from someone else and truly believed it.

I wonder why you have this seeming burning desire to defend FUD spreaders. Chromosoma seems to have developed a FUD spreading pattern of behavior. Further, when a poster is making outrageous and difficult to believe claims, s/he should have some kind of affirmative obligation to provide some sources for that claim.. . or at least some logic concerning why the claim is plausible.. .. IN this case, Chromosoma is NOT only claiming plausible, but s/he is claiming high likelihood bordering on certainty that Stamp will be closing.... Probably, we are giving him/her too much credibility and airtime by merely discussing such baloney assertions.

why do you call Chinese situation FUD? Chinese situation is facts. it's a reality

This particular statement by Chromosoma was NOT about China. S/he said that Bitstamp was going to be shut down... without providing hardly any substantiation(s) for such assertion...

Further, any subject matter can be used by FUD spreaders - even when they are combining true matters with untrue matters in order to build their case - such as claims that bitcoin is going to zero. This particular latest assertion by Chromosoma did NOT involve China, yet.

Quote from: Odalv on May 03, 2014, 11:06:08 PM

Quote from: TERA on May 03, 2014, 10:53:26 PM

I don't know which will happen. All I know is that the next 1-2 years is not going to be productive for traders.

I'm bull trapped at $600 (ALL IN, what I can afford to lose). I'll not sell lower and I will buy more only under $100/BTC. ... so I'll not trade range 101-599.

Your description of your position does NOT make too much financial sense (unless you are leaving out some details) b/c the price is NOT likely to go below $300. If your cost per BTC is $600, then you would likely be considerably advantaged to buy more when the prices are lower, buying more anywhere between $300 and $450 will significantly bring down your average price per BTC.

Currently my average price per BTC is about $600 too; however, I am disinclined at this time in my thinking to buy anymore BTC between $450 and $600 b/c I have already bought several times in this price range.. so I am getting a little tired of buying in this price range, and I would rather get more bang for my buck. ON the other hand, if I can rest assured that BTC prices are gong to go up, I will buy some moar in this price range.

I just hate to buy now, and then run out of fiat in the event that prices were to go down into the $300s.

Quote from: cech4204a on May 03, 2014, 11:08:04 PM

i think all off you are wrong, nobody can predict price of BTC. And i can bet on this. it can go to 5$ in a day and back to 400$, it can also go to 1000$ in a day and back to 400$, you will never know unless you are big fish in the pond and you have some real deal piece of information or some big ammount of money.

I agree with you to some extent that no one can predict the prices, except possibly the biggest of whales. Yet, even the biggest of whales are only willing to lose so much money in the event that they attempt to manipulate beyond what the market is willing to follow. Surely a big player with multiple millions of dollars that s/he is willing to lose could play this manipulation game a little more seriously, but likely would have trouble creating anymore than 10-20% daily volatility.

Quote from: adamstgBit on May 03, 2014, 11:59:00 PM

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 03, 2014, 11:48:56 PM

Quote from: TERA on May 03, 2014, 11:36:26 PM

I'm always puzzled by the way that Huobi trades. It's always two large orders suddenly appear on both sides of the book and get 1 yuan away from each other to create this tiny tiny spread and then they trade with eachother somehow.

Someone told me (Maybe Aminorex?) that this happens frequently in the USD market. It looks strange though. You would think that sellers would attempt to get buyers to pay more and move their wall up. It seems to me like sellers are trying to keep the prices down (which of course is not in their interest).

in general the market wants to find THE value and stay there, problem is bitcoin is always growing... so every once in a while we have a "bubble" and then bitcoins looking for its value again, we always overshoot on the up side and the down side, and bitcoin keeps growing...

this is why all the volatility.

I see bitcoin calming down and staying steady onces its completely taken over all monetary transactions, because i think in 100 years or so that what will happen bitcoin 4.2.9 will be running and my transactions from 2011- 2150 will be forever recorded on the blockhchain i'll be dead taking at lest 1BTC with me to the grave because afterlife! Cheesy

You are quite hilarious, and to be somewhat serious, one of the problems with bitcoin seems to be that through time there are going to many bitcoin HODLers taking bitcoins with them to the afterlife, until we get some better security vehicles. I think that if I croaked today, at least half of my bitcoin stash would become unclaimed. Even if I suffered from some memory loss regarding my bitcoin would cause significant recovery problems.

I am definitely looking forward to better bitcoin wallets.

Quote from: Adrian-x on May 04, 2014, 12:03:20 AM

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 03, 2014, 11:43:46 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on May 03, 2014, 11:36:08 PM

Quite amazing how Tera nows exactly what will happen in the next 2 years.

...but not more crazy compared to people who (constantly) claim that we are only a few days away from going to the moon

I think TERA is basing her prediction based on at the past where there has been long periods with less activity (in between bubbles).

I see something similar, coin distribution is what is happening and this process is hindered by coagulation, there are players in the space who will become distortedly wealthy if the market cap increase, hence they have too big a stake, we will need to see this experiment look like it's going to fail before those hoarders help distribute coins so distribution ends up resembling a normal distribution curve. I'm not predicting anything just think there is a roughly 30% chance something like this happens.

It's the true believes who survive.

You may be able to shake coins from people who bought recently, but it is NOT going to be easy to shake coins from those who have already experienced 10x or 100x appreciation. Those HODLers would NOT have any major incentive to get rid of significant portions of their portfolio, unless you say that we are going into the double digits, which would be difficult for any manipulator to accomplish without losing significant capital.in the process of attempting to get prices there.

Quote from: nioc on May 04, 2014, 05:38:15 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 04, 2014, 12:39:40 AM

You are quite hilarious, and to be somewhat serious, one of the problems with bitcoin seems to be that through time there are going to many bitcoin HODLers taking bitcoins with them to the afterlife, until we get some better security vehicles. I think that if I croaked today, at least half of my bitcoin stash would become unclaimed. Even if I suffered from some memory loss regarding my bitcoin would cause significant recovery problems.

I am definitely looking forward to better bitcoin wallets.

I use the Electrum wallet and 2 people who I can trust with my life have my seeds. So if when I die they don't end up in a non existent place.

Yes, and your heirs will be able to avoid probate and taxes; hopefully.... till someone figures out that they got free money. ... and yes, we all have to prepare for this kind of thing.. that is why you changed your "if" to "when"

Quote from: GaliX on May 04, 2014, 08:35:53 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 04, 2014, 08:34:44 AM

Quote from: GaliX on May 04, 2014, 08:29:59 AM

this is the first time ever I see a 1,5k Wall on Huobi.

beginning to scare me. Sad

there, I took my walls down just for you Wink

thank you, what a relief. Cheesy

*buy buy buy

YES!!!! I have been wondering how low this bear trap is going to go b/c I would prefer to buy a lil MOAR at the lowest point in this series. I was thinking that if it gets down to $420-ish in the next 24 hours... that is about as low as we can expect... absent some kind of negative news.... which negative news (or FUD) is always possible to help to drive some additional downward price pressure(s).

In sum, I am thinking maybe to buy a little bit at $420-ish... if we get there. I welcome to hear any other theories about the extent of downard price movement, here.

Quote from: ShroomsKit on May 04, 2014, 12:00:05 PM

I don't understand why people do this. They want to buy a few coins but only if it reaches 420. So they're gonna watch the price hoover around 430 for a day knowing it might very well go up again from there. So when the price does go up they either have no coins or panic buy at 440.
Is saving 10 dollars per coin really that important? Assuming the price goes up from that point you have profit either way. And if it doesn't reach 420 you messed up.

I do NOT understand why you seem to get so much pleasure out of second guessing the intelligence (or lack thereof) of other people.

NOT everyone is in the same position regarding their potential wait to buy coins at $420.

In my case, I do NOT feel any additional utility buying more coins at $430 or $440 - unless I am certain that the price is going to go up. In other words, I have already bought a bunch of coins at the $440-ish price point. Accordingly, my next buy price point will be around $420-ish... I may buy at $425, and then wait to see if we see $410 or NOT to buy again.

If I am certain that we are going down to $410, then I am NOT going to buy at $425... but who the fuck really knows? YOU, Shroomskit do NOT know anymore than the rest of us..... though it is does NOT seem to be in your dogbird personality to accept that investors can still be intelligent when they are considering their BTC investment or trading strategy differently from you. NONE of us really knows the BTC price direction, except maybe some whales may be anticipating some tactic that they are going to employ to attempt to manipulate the BTC price in one direction or another.

Quote from: boumalo on May 04, 2014, 12:12:16 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 04, 2014, 11:01:41 AM

Quote from: GaliX on May 04, 2014, 08:35:53 AM

Quote from: chessnut on May 04, 2014, 08:34:44 AM

Quote from: GaliX on May 04, 2014, 08:29:59 AM

this is the first time ever I see a 1,5k Wall on Huobi.

beginning to scare me. Sad

there, I took my walls down just for you Wink

thank you, what a relief. Cheesy

*buy buy buy

YES!!!! I have been wondering how low this bear trap is going to go b/c I would prefer to buy a lil MOAR at the lowest point in this series. I was thinking that if it gets down to $420-ish in the next 24 hours... that is about as low as we can expect... absent some kind of negative news.... which negative news (or FUD) is always possible to help to drive some additional downward price pressure(s).

In sum, I am thinking maybe to buy a little bit at $420-ish... if we get there. I welcome to hear any other theories about the extent of downard price movement, here.

If you think it is a bear trap and we will go up a lot soon you should buy now!

We have been in a downtrend for a while with a few bull traps

Yes, ultimately I believe the price is going to go up.. but I am NOT certain about any of the price direction. If the price goes down, I would rather buy more at a lower price.... I am also o.k. with my current BTC holdings, in the event that the price does NOT go down further, then I will be stuck with my current holdings.. Who knows, but if the price lingers here for a few more weeks, I may buy more at the current price point.

Quote from: rpietila on May 04, 2014, 12:31:01 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on May 04, 2014, 12:27:22 PM

Quote from: mooncake on May 04, 2014, 12:19:01 PM

Until everyone cries gloom and doom, then this bearish market is over.

That already happened a couple of time as well though. But people always want cheaper coins.

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.
[/quote

From where are you getting this 3.2x more people measurement (since when? since the last bubble?)

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on May 04, 2014, 09:08:36 PM

Guys I tell you something, if you give me the value of my coins, I´m going to sell and help you all Cheesy

Because, as soon as I sell and speculate, the price will hit new ATH Wink

As soon as I buy the price goes instantly down... So, anybody interested? Cheesy

How much do you want in order to sell all of your coins?

Quote from: chriswilmer on May 04, 2014, 10:57:43 PM

Quote from: Blitz on May 04, 2014, 09:59:49 PM

You apparently don't know me well, I don't like altcoins, but I do like it when they upset the Bitcoin cultists.

This is the part that's hard for me to understand. Why do you like it when others are upset?

Sounds like we have a mod that needs to grow up.... b/c participants in these kinds of threads tend to invest considerable time and energy into bitcoin.... and in the end the mod's job should be to weed out people who are NOT facilitating meaningful and substantive communications in these kinds of thread... and people who are merely trying to inflame and distract without contributing to the subject matter.

Surely, it is fine and dandy to joke around a little bit, here and there, but better to put such jokes within a meaningful or subject relevant context.

Dogecoin does have some connection with bitcoin, but the participation in or enthusiasm for dogecoin does NOT reasonably infer that bitcoin is dead or dying. Dogecoin has 500x more coins, and more than 150x smaller market cap than btc. Though surprisingly, today's trade value of dogecoin was only 10x less than bitcoin.

Dogecoin is NOT irrelevant, but the last time I checked this was a bitcoin thread, so some connection to bitcoin would be nice to receive - especially by a nominal mod.

Quote from: octaft on May 04, 2014, 11:20:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 04, 2014, 11:16:00 PM

in the end the mod's job should be to weed out people who are NOT facilitating meaningful and substantive communications in these kinds of thread... and people who are merely trying to inflame and distract without contributing to the subject matter.

Who decides the precise rules for that, though? How do you draw the line between moderation and censorship? IMO if you're not posting shit like meatspin, goatse, or viruses, your posts are fair game even if they are inflammatory.

Moderators, admins and OPs decide those kinds of issues. I am just stating my opinion, and if I were in a position to have influence over that, I would NOT allow posts that are merely being made to incite and distract and insult other posters. Apparently, this forum has a very liberal acceptance of trolling and does NOT recognize that trolling tends to take away value from the forum. That is their business choice, and obviously fairly liberal when the mod himself/herself admits that s/he is engaging in posts to merely inflame others.

Quote from: octaft on May 04, 2014, 11:57:38 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 04, 2014, 11:49:29 PM

Quote from: octaft on May 04, 2014, 11:20:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 04, 2014, 11:16:00 PM

in the end the mod's job should be to weed out people who are NOT facilitating meaningful and substantive communications in these kinds of thread... and people who are merely trying to inflame and distract without contributing to the subject matter.

Who decides the precise rules for that, though? How do you draw the line between moderation and censorship? IMO if you're not posting shit like meatspin, goatse, or viruses, your posts are fair game even if they are inflammatory.

Moderators, admins and OPs decide those kinds of issues. I am just stating my opinion, and if I were in a position to have influence over that, I would NOT allow posts that are merely being made to incite and distract and insult other posters. Apparently, this forum has a very liberal acceptance of trolling and does NOT recognize that trolling tends to take away value from the forum. That is their business choice, and obviously fairly liberal when the mod himself/herself admits that s/he is engaging in posts to merely inflame others.

So if you had the power to ban any number of posters in this thread -- all their posts deleted, they cannot post on this forum again -- who would you ban, and why?

The owner of the forum makes decisions as to how much trolling is allowed.

Personally, I would NOT delete or allow the deletion or editing of posts except under very rare circumstances....

Also, I am of the opinion that banning cannot take place, if the users do NOT know the rules or that what they did is offensive, so they would have to be clearly informed of the rules. They may be warned before they are banned depending on the egregiousness of the behavior... or whether they are accepting to follow the rules in the future. ... At this point, I do NOT have enough information to name any user(s) that should be banned or that has been egregiously been breaking rules in particular b/c if they have NOT been warned or told what they are doing is offensive, then that would NOT be fair to ban or suspend them.

Again, ultimately the owner(s) of the forum makes these kinds of decisions, so the above is merely my own speculation based on your question.

Quote from: octaft on May 05, 2014, 12:15:02 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2014, 12:09:43 AM

Quote from: octaft on May 04, 2014, 11:57:38 PM

So if you had the power to ban any number of posters in this thread -- all their posts deleted, they cannot post on this forum again -- who would you ban, and why?

The owner of the forum makes decisions as to how much trolling is allowed.

Personally, I would NOT delete or allow the deletion or editing of posts except under very rare circumstances....

Also, I am of the opinion that banning cannot take place, if the users do NOT know the rules or that what they did is offensive, so they would have to be clearly informed of the rules. They may be warned before they are banned depending on the egregiousness of the behavior... or whether they are accepting to follow the rules in the future. ... At this point, I do NOT have enough information to name any user(s) that should be banned or that has been egregiously been breaking rules in particular b/c if they have NOT been warned or told what they are doing is offensive, then that would NOT be fair to ban or suspend them.

Again, ultimately the owner(s) of the forum makes these kinds of decisions, so the above is merely my own speculation based on your question.

Okay, who would you warn? I'm not asking you what you think the owners would do. I'm asking what you would do.

What good does it do for me to name names? I am NOT the owner, or the op or a moderator.

And, if for some reason I were to become one of those, for the sake of this hypothetical, I would republish the rules in order that all members have NOTICE of the rules. At this point the rules of the forum are NOT very prominent, and if there are NO rules, I could NOT warn anybody - unless, whatever was DONE defied all common sense.

I am NOT going to go down the road of naming any names b/c this exercise is a big waste of time, and if I were in such a positions, I would have to look case by case to which posts are offensive and thereafter what was the offense frequency and how bad was it... then to formulate the warning based on the post(s). These would likely need to be made in a fairly timely manner, as well... So if a poster had been offensive, but then had reformed his/her ways, then that poster may NO longer merit any warning.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 05, 2014, 12:32:31 AM

In response to the threat posed by the rebellious altcoins, this board should forsake its tradition of tolerance and institute a Bitcoin Inquisition, to evaluate all posts for possible heresy or offensiveness to the One and Only Cryptocurrency.

Yeah... maybe that is a good idea.

At least posts in this thread should somehow be related to bitcoin b/c the last I checked the topic of this thread is BTC/USD....

There are other threads in this forum that deal with other topics, including various alt coins.

I know some of you FUD spreaders and some of the other thread trolls engage in considerable lengthy posting activities to attempt to distract the thread from its stated topic and also to sometimes cause us to pursue meaningless side tangents in this thread... for example, to get us to spend a lot of time talking about some topic that has a 1 in a million chance of happening as if the odds were much higher. You, Jorge, seem to like to do this with some of your negative speculations, to explore matters that are theoretically possible but are about as likely as my getting struck by lightning in Brazil in the next 24 hours. Sure it is possible, but NOT very likely since I am in California, and I do NOT even have plans to go to Brazil in the near future.

Quote from: bigdave on May 05, 2014, 12:44:57 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 05, 2014, 12:25:25 AM

Quote from: tupelo on May 05, 2014, 12:00:52 AM

sudden volume spike on bitstamp Shocked

This is the last move up before the fall. It may go up to 450. Maybe even to 460. Or that green spike to 440 might have been the last hoorah.

But the dump is coming this week.

Just placed my buy orders at $405.

Congrats. Is that on Stamp? Maybe you will be pulling those orders by, when? next week or two weeks from now?

I have my reservations about reaching $405, but I have NO real idea regarding the price movement in the next couple of weeks... I would actually buy some at $405, too.

Yet, I would actually lean towards BTC staying in the $420 to $470 range.. absent some further news... and surely we are going to get some news out of China on or before May 10th.... (they have the bitcoin summit starting on the 10th)

Quote from: octaft on May 05, 2014, 01:24:44 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2014, 12:52:42 AM

Quote from: octaft on May 05, 2014, 12:15:02 AM

Okay, who would you warn? I'm not asking you what you think the owners would do. I'm asking what you would do.

What good does it do for me to name names? I am NOT the owner, or the op or a moderator.

And, if for some reason I were to become one of those, for the sake of this hypothetical, I would republish the rules in order that all members have NOTICE of the rules. At this point the rules of the forum are NOT very prominent, and if there are NO rules, I could NOT warn anybody - unless, whatever was DONE defied all common sense.

I am NOT going to go down the road of naming any names b/c this exercise is a big waste of time, and if I were in such a positions, I would have to look case by case to which posts are offensive and thereafter what was the offense frequency and how bad was it... then to formulate the warning based on the post(s). These would likely need to be made in a fairly timely manner, as well... So if a poster had been offensive, but then had reformed his/her ways, then that poster may NO longer merit any warning.

So what you are basically saying is, it's a lot harder to do the job than it is to bitch about someone else not doing it? Wink

NOPE... that is NOT what I am saying. I figured that you wanted to come up with some ludicrous conclusion, and with your stupid-ass conclusion, YOU have proven me correct in my expectation(s) of what you were going to do.

In several of your posts, you seem to be a very smart guy/gal, but sometimes you come up with some doosies of bad logic in attempt to arrive at your wished-for conclusion(s).

I will remind you that I did make a statement earlier, however, that it appeared to me that the rules in this forum must be pretty lax when it comes down to it b/c the moderator had seemed to admit to making statements with a purpose to inflame other posters.

I still maintain that there should be a rule against making inflammatory statements to other posters; however, if there is NOT such a rule currently in place, then the rule would need to be made and publicized before it could/should be enforced. Personally, I am NOT inclined to attempt to enforce a rule that is NOT fairly in place.

Quote from: octaft on May 05, 2014, 02:23:28 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2014, 01:57:45 AM

Quote from: octaft on May 05, 2014, 01:24:44 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2014, 12:52:42 AM

Quote from: octaft on May 05, 2014, 12:15:02 AM

Okay, who would you warn? I'm not asking you what you think the owners would do. I'm asking what you would do.

What good does it do for me to name names? I am NOT the owner, or the op or a moderator.

And, if for some reason I were to become one of those, for the sake of this hypothetical, I would republish the rules in order that all members have NOTICE of the rules. At this point the rules of the forum are NOT very prominent, and if there are NO rules, I could NOT warn anybody - unless, whatever was DONE defied all common sense.

I am NOT going to go down the road of naming any names b/c this exercise is a big waste of time, and if I were in such a positions, I would have to look case by case to which posts are offensive and thereafter what was the offense frequency and how bad was it... then to formulate the warning based on the post(s). These would likely need to be made in a fairly timely manner, as well... So if a poster had been offensive, but then had reformed his/her ways, then that poster may NO longer merit any warning.

So what you are basically saying is, it's a lot harder to do the job than it is to bitch about someone else not doing it? Wink

NOPE... that is NOT what I am saying. I figured that you wanted to come up with some ludicrous conclusion, and with your stupid-ass conclusion, YOU have proven me correct in my expectation(s) of what you were going to do.

In several of your posts, you seem to be a very smart guy/gal, but sometimes you come up with some doosies of bad logic in attempt to arrive at your wished-for conclusion(s).

I will remind you that I did make a statement earlier, however, that it appeared to me that the rules in this forum must be pretty lax when it comes down to it b/c the moderator had seemed to admit to making statements with a purpose to inflame other posters.

I still maintain that there should be a rule against making inflammatory statements to other posters; however, if there is NOT such a rule currently in place, then the rule would need to be made and publicized before it could/should be enforced. Personally, I am NOT inclined to attempt to enforce a rule that is NOT fairly in place.

For what you've expressed a desire for, you certainly do not lead by example.

For example? If I call your ideas or your conclusions "stupid-ass," I am NOT calling you stupid ass... I am suggesting that your argument is baseless or lacking facts or lacking logic or does NOT follow from the information that is known.

So I am NOT sure what you mean about me NOT leading by example? I rarely engage in personal attacks of other posters, besides suggesting some of their ideas are fucked (or some other explicative). ONLY sometimes I get pissed off a little bit more than may be necessary at someone pursuing a bunch of silly ass ideas and/or seeming to want to argue, just for the sake of argument.

You may be correct that from time to time I go too far in my comments, and I could be a little more polite. That is possible. However, a problem with having a forum without rules is that it becomes contagious to engage in this kind of conduct (or potentially a disadvantage if a poster refrains from it) or even irresistibly tempting to throw out a few extra explicative, here and there.

You know the expression that it may NOT be very useful to bring a knife to a gun fight. Accordingly, the rule of the community sometimes affects conduct.

Ultimately, I believe for the most part I am fairly restraint in the area of personal attacks that I make or my stating conclusions without some basis. I am pretty minimal with FUD-like spreading... so I would like to hear what you believe from you assessment of the situation that I do or say that is NOT leading by example?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 05, 2014, 03:38:01 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2014, 01:04:11 AM

You, Jorge, seem to like to do this with some of your negative speculations, to explore matters that are theoretically possible but are about as likely as my getting struck by lightning in Brazil in the next 24 hours.

Well, if you find a true believer who owns a private jet plane, you can buy the plane from him and hire him as a pilot with 0.01 BTC. Then you can be flying over Brazil in 10 hours maybe. Then you only have to find a tropical thunderstorm over the Amazon (almost certainly there will be one somewhere), fly into it, parachute out of the plane and unravel a roll of fine copper wire on the way down.

Thanks for outlining that b/c that is what I am talking about. It is possible, but NOT likely, and the only way I am going to get a flight from California to Brazil for .01BTC in less than 24 hours would be to peg the BTC payment based on BTC's likely future value in the coming years. Cheesy

So, let's say a private funded flight to Brazil would be around $10k to $20K, then in order to pay with .01 BTC, then 1 BTC would have to be valued at $1 million to $2 million.

Attention everyone: Jorge has turned Bull!!!!!

Quote from: octaft on May 05, 2014, 03:40:03 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2014, 03:09:41 AM

For example? If I call your ideas or your conclusions "stupid-ass," I am NOT calling you stupid ass... I am suggesting that your argument is baseless or lacking facts or lacking logic or does NOT follow from the information that is known.

So I am NOT sure what you mean about me NOT leading by example? I rarely engage in personal attacks of other posters, besides suggesting some of their ideas are fucked (or some other explicative). ONLY sometimes I get pissed off a little bit more than may be necessary at someone pursuing a bunch of silly ass ideas and/or seeming to want to argue, just for the sake of argument.

You may be correct that from time to time I go too far in my comments, and I could be a little more polite. That is possible. However, a problem with having a forum without rules is that it becomes contagious to engage in this kind of conduct (or potentially a disadvantage if a poster refrains from it) or even irresistibly tempting to throw out a few extra explicative, here and there.

You know the expression that it may NOT be very useful to bring a knife to a gun fight. Accordingly, the rule of the community sometimes affects conduct.

Ultimately, I believe for the most part I am fairly restraint in the area of personal attacks that I make or my stating conclusions without some basis. I am pretty minimal with FUD-like spreading... so I would like to hear what you believe from you assessment of the situation that I do or say that is NOT leading by example?

What I mean is calling my conclusions "stupid-ass" doesn't serve much purpose but to antagonize, especially when I haven't drawn any real conclusions (other than the joke one that I gave you the little wink on and everything). You can word that a lot better and still get your point across.

Yes, it is possible that I used words that were stronger than necessary to make my point; however, without really being able to put my finger on the situation, exactly, I am getting the sense that you are being quite disingenuous with your pursuit to engage me in various topics, including this one. So maybe my language was a bit stronger than it needed to be - even though I was attempting to be descriptive of my frustration that you seemed to have been purposefully missing various points attempting to describe matters in ways other than what they were. In the end, I think my response was appropriate and within a context in which the response seems to fit.

Quote from: octaft on May 05, 2014, 03:40:03 AM

I honestly am not bothered by a little bit of antagonizing. Then again, I'm not the one who wants stricter moderation.

I am NOT bothered by some antagonism, too, b/c I expect some of this to take place whether forums are strict or not there is going to be antagonism b/c we are dealing with quasi-anonymous posts.

Yes, I stated my opinion that the forum would be better with more policing and/or elimination of trolls. However, I do NOT really expect it to change anytime soon b/c there seems to be considerable tolerance for trolls in this forum. I will deal with the antagonism, but I remain unafraid to express my preference for better moderation.

Quote from: TERA on May 05, 2014, 03:49:39 AM

I don't think of the upcoming drop so much as a prediction, but as a painfully obvious feature of the chart that I thought we all agreed on.

I did NOT know that there was any one chart that everyone agreed upon. I am NOT even sure if everyone agrees that the sun is coming up in the east, tomorrow. Cheesy

Quote from: windjc on May 05, 2014, 06:33:23 AM

Just a little disappointed in myself that I did not short more. I had plenty of time to do so and I was a little too cautious, as bulls have been putting up a fight (sort of) and I hedged my bets, so to speak.

There is still a chance we get a bump before the crash, but I'm not too optimistic.

There are major storm clouds on the horizon right now.

At what price point would have you shorted? We have been floating between $430 and $460 for more than 2 weeks, so if you really expect a crash, what is the difference between shorting now at $430 instead of $460.. NOT much different.

Personally, i am NOT as confident as you are purporting to be about some inevitable fall in prices - even though a fall in prices is possible, I do NOT want to get screwed in the event that prices do NOT fall... safer in my view to HODL...

Quote from: check07 on May 05, 2014, 11:29:42 AM

Isn't it ironic that the libertarian bitcoiners, champions of laissez-faire capitalism, are betting all their life savings on the hope that the Satoshi Bitcoin will be one day the only cryptocurrency in the market, so that they can charge monopoly prices for it?

Where did you read this?

Sounds like you are parroting some FUD line.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 05, 2014, 11:40:01 AM

Quote from: check07 on May 05, 2014, 11:29:42 AM

Isn't it ironic that the libertarian bitcoiners, champions of laissez-faire capitalism, are betting all their life savings on the hope that the Satoshi Bitcoin will be one day the only cryptocurrency in the market, so that they can charge monopoly prices for it?

Hm, isn't that copy-paste from a post of mine?

YEAH... STOP IT, CHECK07!!!!! Jorge had a monopoly on that monopoly statement. Cheesy

Quote from: Blitz on May 05, 2014, 01:26:42 PM

Quote from: niothor on May 05, 2014, 01:24:54 PM

Quote from: Blitz on May 05, 2014, 01:21:33 PM

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/doomsday-cult-of-bitcoin.html

I know that this is your favorite stuff , about bitcoin "cultist" , but shouldn't a mod know that it has already been posted 10 times in this thread?

Thought it was worth reading once again considering the current climate.

Quote

And as time passes and the inevitable fizzle-out of Bitcoin becomes visible, those believers will splinter. More will drop out of the cult. And the ones who remain will only grow more convinced, more zealous, more eager to share the good news.

Remind you of anyone? Cheesy

I do find it kind of difficult to fathom that a mod is spreading this boloney crap information regarding bitcoin and denigrating bitcoin advocates. Even your signature misstates what is FUD. FUD stands for Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. Why do you want to mislead people about the meaning of FUD?

DID some bank owner or govt official take over your account to spread misinformation? As you should know, spreading does a disservice to people participating in this thread and this forum.

Quote from: octaft on May 05, 2014, 01:33:52 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2014, 09:14:32 AM

Yes, it is possible that I used words that were stronger than necessary to make my point; however, without really being able to put my finger on the situation, exactly, I am getting the sense that you are being quite disingenuous with your pursuit to engage me in various topics, including this one. So maybe my language was a bit stronger than it needed to be - even though I was attempting to be descriptive of my frustration that you seemed to have been purposefully missing various points attempting to describe matters in ways other than what they were. In the end, I think my response was appropriate and within a context in which the response seems to fit.

I'm beating around the bush heavily, but with no intent to troll. It's just that people don't really know what they want until you make them think about it. I'm asking you questions to make you think about it. Imagine it an effort to open your eyes to my opinion -- that it's harder than it seems to moderate a forum and judge what is acceptable -- without gracelessly shoving it down your throat.

That's ridiculous. NOW, you are being patronizing.. attempting to suggest that you are somehow coming from a place of higher knowledge. You certainly do NOT know enough about me in order to come to those kinds of conclusions, even if you did happen to read all of my posts on this forum Additionally, I have already experience several of your responses that tend to inform me that even if you had read all of my posts, either you did NOT understand half of their content or you are purposefully failing to take into account half of their content.

You seem to be wasting my time, your time and the time of anyone who may happen to be reading this interchange between us with your purported attempts to teach.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 05, 2014, 01:39:51 PM

Quote from: niothor on May 05, 2014, 01:31:51 PM

Quote from: Blitz on May 05, 2014, 01:26:42 PM

Quote from: niothor on May 05, 2014, 01:24:54 PM

Quote from: Blitz on May 05, 2014, 01:21:33 PM

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/doomsday-cult-of-bitcoin.html

I know that this is your favorite stuff , about bitcoin "cultist" , but shouldn't a mod know that it has already been posted 10 times in this thread?

Thought it was worth reading once again considering the current climate.

Quote

And as time passes and the inevitable fizzle-out of Bitcoin becomes visible, those believers will splinter. More will drop out of the cult. And the ones who remain will only grow more convinced, more zealous, more eager to share the good news.

Remind you of anyone?

Should I start posting usernames or just the link to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=mlist ? =))))))

Although I believe there is a bit of truth behind that article you can't argue that is comes from a person who is against BTC from the start and it doesn't even care to view the benefits the bitcoin protocol might bring.

+1

The article is onto something (many in here *are* cultists), but in their total dismissal of BTC the author isn't any better either.

It is misleading baloney to suggest "many in here" are cultists... By many do you mean 100? It is also degrading and disingenuous to suggest "many in here" are cultists.

Quote from: Blitz on May 05, 2014, 01:45:33 PM

Well yes, it's a shame that it is mostly Bitcoin cultists on the one hand and Bitcoin haters on the other, but that's the nature of controversial topics. I like Bitcoin, but I dislike the cultists because they rob themselves of intellectual freedom and attempt to do the same to others.

Your description of bitcoin enthusiasts as "cultists" denigrates and robs participants of this thread of an ability to engage in meaningful communications. I have difficulties understanding how a mod here can view the bitcoin community within such a polarizing framework. You, as a mod, should realize that the bitcoin community is much more nuanced than this supposed black and white framework in which you seem to be attempting to put its participants.

Quote from: akujin on May 05, 2014, 04:20:43 PM

Quote from: cech4204a on May 05, 2014, 04:07:38 PM

Quote from: akujin on May 05, 2014, 12:46:49 PM

Quote from: cech4204a on May 05, 2014, 12:17:38 PM

e i wrote, chinas ban is old news, which market already knows about. And still, where is answer to my forst question? you are just affraid and you know nothing about future price. I offer you .1 btc if you write price of 30.5., i offer you 2% error, one on each side. Let me see your wisdom smartass

What? LOL!! Is that some kind of an alien language translation? Grin

chinas ban is old news
Old news but can you see where we are now? Is the price now higher than $1200? LOL!
pejorativeAnd m
And still, where is answer to my forst question?
Do you mean "first" question? Your first question is "any clues ?" Grin

I offer you .1 btc if you write price of 30.5., i offer you 2% error, one on each side. Let me see your wisdom smartass
2% error, one on each side? So you want me to post a price range and give me 0.1btc if I got it right? My guess is between $100 and $1000! And for my 2% error, that will be $98 to $1020 range.
Now let's see if you're going to pay me on may 30, 2014!And m
I'm going to label you a scammer if you do not pay!! Mark my words.. And I have quoted your post so I have proof!

Now you're in trouble.. hahaha Grin

Behold my wisdom you dork
Say bye to you 0.1btc

EDIT: Since it's a free offer, I'll just pick a random number.. I say $509 on may 30 Grin

That will be between $498.82 and $519.18 for 2% error. If that range got hit within the whole 24hrs on May 30, I win! Make sure you'll pay me if I got it right or else I'll give you your first negative feedback. Now quote this post! Bwahaha! Grin

Quoting and confirming, but with some fixes, its the price of 30.5th on 12:00 gmt+1, if you lose, you get negative feedback from me and i get positive one from you, you also admit then that you were idiot in that case, deal?

Oh look at that... He's asking me to predict the exact price at the exact minute after 25days... How stupid is that.. LOL! Even a super computer can't do that.. unless I am the one manipulating the price Roll Eyes

Making a wrong prediction doesn't make me an idiot.. The real idiot here is you for asking such question and expecting it to be 100% correct Roll Eyes

And why would I get a negative feedback? I never scammed anyone. LOL!

This whole interchange seems quite stupid, and only entertaining in terms of its lack of coherence.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 05, 2014, 05:07:10 PM

Try to stay objective, okay?

Are you coaching yourself here?

I do NOT want to assume anything, but it seems to me that you may be a little frustrated to have to defend your comment because you are internally of the belief that it is so obviously an objective fact that bitcoin followers are cultish, and NOT an insult to be calling people in this thread cultists. Just because it has some basis in truth, and you can find some of the pointed out behaviours in the real world does NOT make the conclusion correct. A lot of myths have some basis in reality. A lot of propaganda has some basis in reality. A lot of trolling comments have some basis in reality. Merely because some observed conclusions have some basis in reality does NOT make them true.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 05, 2014, 05:07:10 PM

So now it's "degrading" to use the word cultist for, well, cult like behavior? I don't think so.

I do think so. You are trying to simplify matters, and you are trying to suggest that a large number of people who are pro-bitcoin have NO brains.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 05, 2014, 05:07:10 PM

As for the numbers, I don't have hard data, and I cannot have data because what I would call "cultish" is hardly a set-in-stone definition, but to give a few examples:

You do NOT have numbers because the accusation is based on purely anecdotal evidence. Surely, cultish can mean a lot of different things, but it does have a definition and the definition is generally derogatory and applied to religious behavior. Bitcoin is NOT a religion and NOT religious behavior, even though there may be some examples in which you can point to people within bitcoin who are demonstrating those same kinds of behaviours. Even though you can point to that kind of behavior in various bitcoin communities, that mere fact does NOT meet the cultish definition for the group or to say “many in here” are cultish goes to imply that coltishness is some kind of wide-spread phenomenon in bitcoin.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 05, 2014, 05:07:10 PM

Remember the guy who sold his house to invest it all in btc. Zero risk control, just puts all his wealth into one of the riskiest assets on earth. What's the overwhelming response in his thread? "Good on you! You won't regret it!". The dissenting voices are in the minority. That's cultish, in my book.

So what? Some people are going to demonstrate irrational exuberance with all kinds of their investments, and bitcoin should be no different than that. At what price did he invest in bitcoin? Is he currently at a profit or a loss? If he is holding long term, then great, he may be ahead at some point in the near future. But with any investment, he may lose the amount that he invested. The fact that people agree with his investment does NOT prove that it is a cult, either, it proves that they have confidence that the odds are good for btc prices to go up. For example, if you invest $1000 in bitcoin, you could lose $1000 or you could potentially gain $100,000 or some in between result could occur. The mere fact that someone is betting the farm on bitcoin does NOT necessarily mean that bitcoin is a cult or that his behavior was cultish. It depends on the circumstances of that particular case.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 05, 2014, 05:07:10 PM

The kneejerk reaction to mentioning the /possibility/ of total failure of our little experiment. Please note, the exact likelihood of total failure (as in: price approaching 0) is up for debate, but I'm pretty sure a rational observer will admit that there is a real chance for the (publically traded) price to go back to 0 (or at least, close to it), in case of catastrophic failure of parts of the network (like a major flaw on the encryption side), or some other event that causes an absolute loss of trust in the safety of the network. Try talking about that in here. The responses /should/ be "Okay, that's possible, but unlikely." The responses /are/ actually "No! Absolutely impossible! Logically invalid!".

So what? Surely there are some people who think that it is impossible for bitcoin to go to zero, but I would think that would be an exception. I would think that most here would admit that there are real possibilities that bitcoin could go to zero, but they put the odds of that very low. That does NOT make them a cult, even though some people here may from time to time be inarticulate or incomprehensible when making their response to any given situation (myself included). Sometimes we talk in extreme terms or exaggerate our positions to make a point – even though if push comes to shove we may NOT be 100% wedded to the point that we are making. Some comments are spins, some comments are visceral reactions and some comments are very well thought through. In a streaming forum, you are going to get a wide array of reactions, and do NOT expect all of the reactions to be well thought through or a reflection of the posters true and deep down feelings or beliefs.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 05, 2014, 05:07:10 PM

Go back a few pages when TERA suggested offhandedly what a blockchain "reset" would look like, and look at the reactions. That's cultish.

Yes, agreed that this kind of thing could happen with bitcoin and cause considerable logistical difficulties and possibly even completely destroy some or all of the value in the bitcoin holders. Again, so what? How likely is this to happen? Does this possibility mean that I should sell my BTC today? I am personally diversified, and NOT everyone is diversified in a balanced way… but so what? People take risks, and some of us (probably many of us) are NOT technologically sophisticated enough to really understand the various technological components of bitcoin and to assess the likelihood of a blockchain reset. Even technological people do NOT understand all aspects of bitcoin when it comes to dealing with all possibilities of human corruption or the abilities of humans to employ quantum computing or social engineering to undermine or to destroy or to manipulate bitcoin in various ways.
Merely because we do NOT understand it and merely because we dismiss various potentially valid arguments does NOT make us cultish.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 05, 2014, 05:07:10 PM

The sense of "We're in this together, on the way up, and on the way down." It's only human to band together, but the article is spot on when it points out the phrasing of those "public messages" by well known BTC community members, that sound like rallying cries, to keep the troops in line. It's like military esprit de corps, or, well, a cult.

You may know that bitcoin is being attacked in various ways and bitcoin is a threat in various ways to many status quo forces. There may be some we behavior going on and attempts to rally solidarity, but in the end, there are a lot of individuals who are making decisions for themselves. Some people my follow andreas antonopolis (or some other bitcoin enthusiasts/evangelists) and to listen to everything that he says… so what? Sometimes, trust is built, but are we going to drink coolaide when they tell us to drink coolaide. Some will, but so what? Overall, there is NOT that much control over “many.” “Many” have considerable confidence that bitcoin is going to continue to prosper and to expand and to go up in prices. “Many” also hope and pray that BTC goes up in prices so that they can make a lot of money… so what? These behaviors are NOT cultish, just because you and others in the mainstream media keep repeating that they are cultish.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 05, 2014, 05:07:10 PM

In case this is important to you, I still believe BTC has a real shot at success (where the exact type of success is up for debate). But I completely agree with Blitz: a lot of arguments in here are very clearly not motivated by rational analysis, but by make believe and selective perception.

So you are trying to suggest that you see reality better than other people? You and Blitz. You guys/gals are objective and the rest of us are delusional? Get off your high horse. Many people go through the same kinds of mixed feelings as you an blitz – though maybe others are NOT so presumptive to begin to call others names because of their knowledge level. Surely, there are several levels of knowledge, and sometimes people just go forward with their investment choice of buy or hodl based on faith, but so what? Some people also may NOT have a lot of time to investigate, and they will invest based on what others are doing. Some also engage in wishful thinking and select the facts that they want to be true… and in the end, there is a lot of variety in knowledge levels and what facts people are going to recognize as being true or plausible.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 05, 2014, 05:07:10 PM

To call it "cultish" is confrontational, but not wrong, in my opinion.

Yes. It is both confrontational and wrong to call “most in here” as cultish. It’s denigrating and it is an oversimplification, and playing into mainstream propaganda. Even though there is some truth to the myth, you are wrong to be propagating this kind of bullshit framework in order to denigrate people who come from a variety of persepctives and many of whom would like to come to these kinds of threads and to participate in these kinds of threads in order to become better informed about bitcoin – rather than to be denigrated, merely because they may be enthusiastic about the prospects of bitcoin.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 05, 2014, 05:23:49 PM

Quote from: chriswilmer on May 05, 2014, 05:16:05 PM

[...]

I think what you feel is healthy skepticism I (and perhaps others) feel is unnecessary pessimism. For any new idea or technology, it's basically a given that it almost certainly won't work -- and there are hordes of people who will trip over themselves to be the first to say "that's a stupid idea." In the early stages (and Bitcoin is certainly in its early stages), the most useful observations and discussions about a technology are its potential benefits, not its pitfalls. The opposite is true for well established ideas / technologies. It is not interesting or useful to say "computers are great!" or "the Internet is great!" today because it is obvious, but if you have reason to be critical of these things, then you have an independent idea worth listening to!

People who think Bitcoin is stupid VASTLY outnumber those who are enthusiastic about Bitcoin's potential. I think being optimistic about Bitcoin, despite enormous social pressure to be otherwise, is quite noble.

You have a point there (that crossed my mind as well, but I decided against mentioning it to keep it simple)... for any group to overcome overwhelming odds, some form of 'extreme group cohesion plus unwavering belief in ultimate success' is necessary.

Still, from my point of view, this unwavering belief in the /success/ of Bitcoin that is so common in here is just as irrational as the unwavering belief by the general public in the /failure/ of Bitcoin.

Can you appreciate this distinction, between the perspective that I understand might be necessary for Bitcoin to have a chance at success (i.e. the "cultish" fervor), and what I hold to be 'objectively true' (or an approximation of objective truth)?

Yes, your desire to "keep it simple" caused you to lose your own objectivity and to over generalize, to be offensive and to simply come to the wrong conclusions.

Quote from: Blitz on May 05, 2014, 05:25:56 PM

Quote from: inca on May 05, 2014, 05:21:57 PM

So just to be clear: anyone who doesn't think the price will imminently fall to 266 or lower is neither able to read charts nor understand 'even the most basic aspects of TA'? Interesting logic.

I am failing to hear any meaningful arguments as to why the price will drop another 60% to your desired target. Other than you want it to and are positioned appropriately of course.

The truth is you have absolutely no idea where the price will be in a month, a year or further out. Unless you can move the market you are simpl making a guess based upon the past.

It is probably worth remembering that this is the speculation (not trading) forum my good chap. Trading is for most people a mugs game.

Nice strawman, I see we have departed from the discussion at hand. Or do you believe this accusation for real?

Inca made very good points - b/c the truth of the matter is that a drop in BTC prices is NOT inevitable, NO matter what the TA may tell you. Each side can make arguments as to the validity of his/her TA (and some people do NOT believe in the efficacy of TA), but people can also say that the TA is bullshit b/c it could also reasonably be considered to be quite a leap for others to be suggesting that BTC prices are going to continue to decline beyond where they are at today.

Neither case of going up or going down is inevitable, but it is NOT a strawman to suggest alternate viewpoints or to suggest that relying on TAs does NOT bring any inevitable conclusions.

Quote from: octaft on May 05, 2014, 05:36:24 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2014, 03:27:05 PM

Quote from: octaft on May 05, 2014, 01:33:52 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2014, 09:14:32 AM

Yes, it is possible that I used words that were stronger than necessary to make my point; however, without really being able to put my finger on the situation, exactly, I am getting the sense that you are being quite disingenuous with your pursuit to engage me in various topics, including this one. So maybe my language was a bit stronger than it needed to be - even though I was attempting to be descriptive of my frustration that you seemed to have been purposefully missing various points attempting to describe matters in ways other than what they were. In the end, I think my response was appropriate and within a context in which the response seems to fit.

I'm beating around the bush heavily, but with no intent to troll. It's just that people don't really know what they want until you make them think about it. I'm asking you questions to make you think about it. Imagine it an effort to open your eyes to my opinion -- that it's harder than it seems to moderate a forum and judge what is acceptable -- without gracelessly shoving it down your throat.

That's ridiculous. NOW, you are being patronizing.. attempting to suggest that you are somehow coming from a place of higher knowledge. You certainly do NOT know enough about me in order to come to those kinds of conclusions, even if you did happen to read all of my posts on this forum Additionally, I have already experience several of your responses that tend to inform me that even if you had read all of my posts, either you did NOT understand half of their content or you are purposefully failing to take into account half of their content.

You seem to be wasting my time, your time and the time of anyone who may happen to be reading this interchange between us with your purported attempts to teach.

Want me to be blunt about it? Over-moderation is dumb, no forum worth posting on does it, and I often skim your posts for relevant material because I feel they tend to ramble on, sometimes incoherently, so forgive me for missing an important sentence or two every now and then.

Was that straight-forward enough for you?

Being blunt is fine, and you have a right to have your opinion. From your prior posts, I had already had a pretty good idea about you position regarding moderation of the forum and the thread, but really neither of has said too much on this topic even though we have made a lot of posts about it in the last couple of days. More or less, you have been suggesting that you are happy with the status quo level of moderation, and I had been suggesting that more moderation would likely weed out some of the extensive trolling to make the forum better. But I believe this dialogue began with my comment that Blitz, as a moderator, admitted that he was posting merely to incite other posters - which irritated me, coming from a mod.

Regarding my prior posts: I would expect that some of my posts have more value than others and some posts are better written than others (and possibly some are not very helpful or very well written), and people also have varying perceptions concerning what they perceive as valuable or helpful in a post.

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on May 05, 2014, 07:24:42 PM

+1 that judicious, discerning & productive moderation isn't easy or clear-cut at all, and that heavy moderation is digressive, censory & stupid.

I do NOT disagree with the above statement, and I believe the above statement is NOT inconsistent with anything that I said.

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on May 05, 2014, 07:24:42 PM

I can attest that Oct. is not the only person skimming some people's posts.. JJG's in particular, given the excessive wordiness often encountered, albeit admittedly made using excellently articulate language.

I doubt that anyone can read this whole thread with thoroughness, there are too many posts. So likely many of us skim, and we will look at some posters more closely than others, or we may get caught by some ideas more than others.

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on May 05, 2014, 07:24:42 PM

What's actually ridiculous, JJG, is for you to be repeatedly distraught that people "[..] definitely don't know enough about you to make such statements/claims..", while at the same time alleging that Octaft is disingenuous & imply that he could not possibly be 'coming from a place of higher knowledge..' when anyone of good cognizance who's been following his posting will definitely substantiate that he's one of the more erudite minds around here who don't get biased easily & are diligent in their intellectual approach.

I am NOT sure where how you are concluding that I am “distraught?” I merely made a statement that a person cannot really know you from your posts. I have made that same assertion in other contexts. Octaft and others sometimes attempt to conclude too much from the posts of others, and I have experienced that. It does NOT make me distraught, but sometimes, I would like to point out when a conclusion is going too far and is NOT based on facts or actuality.

I did suggest that Octaft is being disingenuous during times when he is reaching conclusions that are NOT based on the record. I did NOT suggest that he was NOT coming from a place of higher knowledge, but that it is insulting when he put on the hat as if he were suggesting that he is coming from a place of higher knowledge. Really, it is NOT possible to put on such a hat, if a poster does NOT know enough of the relevant facts and to assume knowledge of facts that are NOT on the table.

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on May 05, 2014, 07:24:42 PM

And since we're on this topic, I'll add that it strongly appears to my perspective that these 'scandalized defensiveness' conversational tendencies and your apparent need to insert vulgar language here & there, are transparent symptoms of the insecurity you feel with some of the obsessive patterns you use when communicating, such as your characteristic capitalized 'NOT' inserted every few sentences or so ;p

Seems that the “NOT” and other all caps emphasis is stylistic, and the vulgar language from time to time may be stylistic or it may be that at that particular writing moment, that particular vulgar word seems to make my point the best (or at least better than other possible words). I am NOT a poet, so I may get the vulgar word wrong, from time to time, and I am sure that if I were to go back to edit my fucking posts ("fucking" added for humor), those posts would suffer from considerable rewriting (and likely shortening). NONETHELESS, the posts attempt to capture my sentiment of the moment, and they are likely longer and/or wordier than necessary… because frequently, I do NOT go back and re-read them before hitting “post.”

Quote from: shmadz on May 05, 2014, 09:34:12 PM

Jay, my friend, you have an incredible knack for using a lot of words to say nothing.

Thnx

Quote from: oda.krell on May 05, 2014, 10:30:15 PM

Quote from: PoolMinor on May 05, 2014, 09:36:42 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on May 05, 2014, 05:07:10 PM

So now it's "degrading" to use the word cultist for, well, cult like behavior? I don't think so. As for the numbers, I don't have hard data, and I cannot have data because what I would call "cultish" is hardly a set-in-stone definition, but to give a few examples:

Fanaticism != Cultism

Edit:
Until Bronco fans are grouped into the classification of a cult, I will stand by the above simple statement.

That's putting an awfully fine point on it.

But, sure, if that's what makes the crowd happy: I see a lot of fanaticism in here. Precise information about the exact share of users exhibiting signs of fanaticism to follow soon, JayJuanGee Cheesy

?

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on May 05, 2014, 10:45:01 PM

It's so subjective, so ill-defined. There's no reasonable consensus on such definitions. Literally takes a Ph.D-level of sociological insight into behavioral psychology, cognitive biases, human nature & internet culture to make an enlightened, substantive, quality assessment of what's to be classified as trolling and what isn't.

I think that i have already made my point several times, and that is that more strict enforcement of prohibition of trolling rules and prohibition of non-substantive attacks would be better for the forum. That is my point, and i am NOT the owner or affiliated, so I Have NO authority or influence. The owner chooses NOT to have rules or to enforce any rules. The owner has complete discretion about who to ban and about how much emphasis to put in such banning. In this case, it seems that the owner has decided that having rules and enforcing such rules would NOT be worth the effort.

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on May 05, 2014, 10:45:01 PM

Quote from: Davyd05 on May 05, 2014, 09:42:46 PM

Quote from: shmadz on May 05, 2014, 09:34:12 PM

Jay, my friend, you have an incredible knack for using a lot of words to say nothing.

+1 I had to ignore him for this.. not that anything he says or does particularly disturbs me.. but wall of text battles are just.. a big waste of time.

[..]

FTFY..? Or did you actually mean that you find the rather concise stuff I've put out in the last few weeks (as much as I could make it) to be a bunch of overwordy text-wall drivel.. Huh

And so, were implying, from the reference to who Jay was '..having wall of text battles with..' that I'm just a troll..? (Whatever the definition of.. Roll Eyes

I DOUBT that Davyd05 was specifically referring to you. Likely, he was merely suggesting that I have too much of a history and habit of engaging in long texts with posters who appear to be trolls and such texts are a waste of time - even to read.

Quote from: octaft on May 05, 2014, 10:52:01 PM

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on May 05, 2014, 10:45:01 PM

I see. Thanks for clarifying, it makes a tad more sense now, so I'll just pass the benefit of the doubt.. I just think the term 'disingenuous' per se doesn't apply for the meaning you intend to convey - perhaps something like 'uninformed' or even 'ignorant' would be far more accurate [does not/can not know the posters that well, from a distance].

Speculative. I am as informed as I can be, and making assumptions from that. I'd be more informed if my simple questions to JayJee were not met with evasive and enormous walls of texts meant to bore me into submission.

The reason that i accuse you of being disingenuous is b/c you tend to engage in interrogations concerning topics that are either irrelevant or only tangentially relevant, and sometimes you seem to purposefully ignore some facts (or you come to conclusions based on the facts that you have, which are incomplete). So, why do you want to pursue such interrogations? Apparently, you are entertained by such, and possibly you see it as a challenge.
Probably, I am willing to go along with it, too much by granting that there could be some useful purpose to addressing your various points. Embarrassed

Quote from: octaft on May 05, 2014, 11:37:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2014, 11:26:36 PM

I think that i have already made my point several times, and that is that more strict enforcement of prohibition of trolling rules and prohibition of non-substantive attacks would be better for the forum. That is my point

If that's the point, then I disagree.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2014, 11:36:41 PM

The reason that i accuse you of being disingenuous is b/c you tend to engage in interrogations concerning topics that are either irrelevant or only tangentially relevant, and sometimes you seem to purposefully ignore some facts (or you come to conclusions based on the facts that you have, which are incomplete). So, why do you want to pursue such interrogations? Apparently, you are entertained by such, and possibly you see it as a challenge.
Probably, I am willing to go along with it, too much by granting that there could be some useful purpose to addressing your various points. Embarrassed

I already told you what the point of all that was, you accused me of being patronizing. If you have preconceived notions about my intent, I can't control that.

Since we seem to have completely exhausted those topics, then maybe we will be forced to talk about the excitement of BTC price volatility?

And, on that topic, I am NOT sure about what to say but I have been thinking that the Chinese are purposefully holding out on some BTC news that will be announced at the bitcoin Global summit in Shanghai on 5/10... Or, maybe the BTC news will just be to give us another date so BTC prices can remain in stagnation for a few more months?

Quote from: aminorex on May 06, 2014, 02:18:26 AM

http://reason.com/blog/2014/04/28/doj-operation-chokepoint-and-porn-stars
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/mar/23/operation-choke-point-payday-lenders-issa-banks
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/04/16/operation-choke-point-the-battle-over-financial-data-between-the-government-and-banks/

The U.S government appears to be making a hard-sell case for Bitcoin.

They really seem to be talking out of both sides of their mouth... and accordingly engaging in selective enforcement tactics, which is NOT anything new.. to pick off the most vulnerable in society and pick off the most easy to target folks.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 06, 2014, 03:21:23 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 06, 2014, 03:06:59 AM

Quote from: aminorex on May 06, 2014, 02:18:26 AM

http://reason.com/blog/2014/04/28/doj-operation-chokepoint-and-porn-stars
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/mar/23/operation-choke-point-payday-lenders-issa-banks
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/04/16/operation-choke-point-the-battle-over-financial-data-between-the-government-and-banks/

The U.S government appears to be making a hard-sell case for Bitcoin.

They really seem to be talking out of both sides of their mouth... and accordingly engaging in selective enforcement tactics, which is NOT anything new.. to pick off the most vulnerable in society and pick off the most easy to target folks.

The government is not monolithic. There are many conflicting programs to make home buying both more affordable and more expensive at the same time for example. Actually the latter programs are supposed to prop up home prices, but that makes them less affordable to new purchasers. Every bureaucrat is a tin pot dictator within his own fiefdom and the unintended consequences on the other bureaucrats cause the conflict. (This is how we win eventually).

I believe that you are again changing the subject - b/c I made my statement in response to the articles links referenced by Aminorex's post. I am still a little bit unclear about the point that Aminorex was attempting to make by posting the links to those articles.

BJA: I agree with your point that the govt is NOT monolithic.. but I remain unclear about the relevance of your "tin pot dictator" assessment or your suggestion that "we" are attempting to win something - which seems to be referring to transitioning to libertarianism... and those latter points, though interesting in themselves do NOT seem to be the reason that Aminorex referenced those articles.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 06, 2014, 03:33:05 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on May 06, 2014, 03:23:58 AM

Let's panic sell because we didn't see this coming.
And make sure to follow a dying exchange all the way down. Go idiots go!

On this volume there is very little panic selling...yet. It's gonna have to get a lot panicier before I even start buying.

I do NOT have a whole hell-of-a-lot of fiat to spare, but I would prefer to buy a little more BTC.

About an hour ago, I bought some at $421, and I would buy more, but I want to save my Fiat in the event that prices go below $400.... I really have my doubts, but who knows?

I have been thinking that maybe the downward trend would last only until 5/10 - then we will get some kind of positive or at least some neutral announcement in connection with the global bitcoin summit in shanghai on that 5/10 date?

That will be a real bummer for china and their 5/10 bitcoin summit if they are merely having presentations about all the bad BTC news in china...

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 06, 2014, 04:03:49 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 06, 2014, 03:49:49 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 06, 2014, 03:21:23 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 06, 2014, 03:06:59 AM

Quote from: aminorex on May 06, 2014, 02:18:26 AM

http://reason.com/blog/2014/04/28/doj-operation-chokepoint-and-porn-stars
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/mar/23/operation-choke-point-payday-lenders-issa-banks
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/04/16/operation-choke-point-the-battle-over-financial-data-between-the-government-and-banks/

The U.S government appears to be making a hard-sell case for Bitcoin.

They really seem to be talking out of both sides of their mouth... and accordingly engaging in selective enforcement tactics, which is NOT anything new.. to pick off the most vulnerable in society and pick off the most easy to target folks.

The government is not monolithic. There are many conflicting programs to make home buying both more affordable and more expensive at the same time for example. Actually the latter programs are supposed to prop up home prices, but that makes them less affordable to new purchasers. Every bureaucrat is a tin pot dictator within his own fiefdom and the unintended consequences on the other bureaucrats cause the conflict. (This is how we win eventually).

I believe that you are again changing the subject - b/c I made my statement in response to the articles links referenced by Aminorex's post. I am still a little bit unclear about the point that Aminorex was attempting to make by posting the links to those articles.

BJA: I agree with your point that the govt is NOT monolithic.. but I remain unclear about the relevance of your "tin pot dictator" assessment or your suggestion that "we" are attempting to win something - which seems to be referring to transitioning to libertarianism... and those latter points, though interesting in themselves do NOT seem to be the reason that Aminorex referenced those articles.

We're not just transitioning to libertarianism. That's far too mild. We're transitioning to crypto-anarchy, but it's going to be a long bloody struggle. The governments are aiding in this transition with their ham-fisted attempts at controlling the uncontrollable. We're giving the people the supply and the government is providing the demand. I know how crazy culty insane it appears to the uninitiated, but we are going to rebuild civilization itself, stronger faster better like the six million dollar man. We have the technology.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wntX-a3jSY

I do agree with you to the extent that we seem to be transitioning into some uncertain state of affairs that could get messy b/c of the fact that bitcoin (and other crypto currencies) are disruptive to the status quo. Certainly, I do NOT feel that I have a very clear vision regarding how the struggle is going to play out, and I would NOT put it past various governmental and corporate institutions to engage in various co-optation tactics. There will also be areas in which these entities are NOT able to co-opt and areas of ambiguity in which some semblance of freedom could prevail. I would NOT want to predict too soon about whether and/or who suffers bloody battles or paradise(s) within this evolving new social order... but we likely know that the haves and the haves not tend to come out differently with any evolving change to the status quo.

Quote from: Davyd05 on May 06, 2014, 04:07:37 AM

To respond to my earlier comment, I felt bad about ignoring you cause..there really was no reason.. lol ..and in your first response to my post you understood my meaning 100%. So in honor of that, though you may not care, have earned life time un-ignored status...But yea more tolerance for walls of text as trolls just usually post cheap ass one liners!

That is pretty hilarious... to achieve reversal of ignore status. Cheesy

I can definitely appreciate that people get frustrated with the numerous posts in this thread that seem to meander. I try to make my post substantive and contributory, yet I understand that sometimes, my posts will turn people off - especially if they are responding to some random matter that does NOT even seem to relate to the theme of the thread.

Sorry Adam... hahahaha .

Quote from: Davyd05 on May 06, 2014, 04:07:37 AM

I was reading through the article at yeah it really does scream hey we need bitcoin cause we're just stepping over constitutional rights life right and center..and then oh hey a Corporation broke the law...ahh fuck it.. fine em their daily lunch money.

All three articles tend to show a pattern of behavior in which the connected people tend to get away with a lot more than the unconnected people. I appreciate that in theory, bitcoin and other crypto-currencies can disrupt the policies, practices and procedures of the status quo institutions, yet the achievement of more "just" institutions and practices is NOT a given.

I think that a lot of people who are into bitcoin recognize ways in which bitcoin can address some of the injustices of society, yet many of us hopefully "early" adopters also believe that appreciation of bitcoin prices could also help us personally to be financially above the fray, to some extent.

I personally believe that we need to remain somewhat sophisticated in our participation in and our approach to bitcoin by diversifying our assets and investments in such a way that we can hopefully profit from the adoption of bitcoin while at the same time take safeguards from being an easy target of various governmental and/or institutional hostilities when we are attempting to advocate, employ or apply the disruptive aspects of bitcoin.

Quote from: xulescu on May 06, 2014, 04:49:33 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on May 06, 2014, 04:23:44 AM

I am just going to view this bear phase as the accumulation phase...as that really seems to be underlying theme...

You accumulate better if you short from time to time Wink

Yes, in theory shorting could be profitable. However, NOT a good time to short now b/c BTC prices seem to be way below the BTC price trend line.

In this regard, it can be good to short when btc prices are above the trend line and to buy when btc prices are below the trendline.

Certainly, we have a variety of views concerning where is the trendline, exactly.

Personally, I am NOT very sophisticated in my trading, but I would put the current BTC trendline in the $650 to $850 arena. I have seen others making claims that the btc trend line is much higher than what I am saying. You could also assess the BTC trendline to be much lower; nonetheless, at $425-ish, in many accounts of the trendline, we are still much below the trendline..

IN sum, this particular moment does NOT appear to be a good time to short - absent some certain news that BTC prices are going to go down by 5-15%. i have NOT seen any such news, even though I have seen considerable fear mongering in that direction to suggest that for sure BTC prices are going down. I remain NOT very confident in such a prediction.

Quote from: xulescu on May 06, 2014, 06:39:59 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 06, 2014, 06:32:43 AM

Quote from: xulescu on May 06, 2014, 04:49:33 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on May 06, 2014, 04:23:44 AM

I am just going to view this bear phase as the accumulation phase...as that really seems to be underlying theme...

You accumulate better if you short from time to time Wink

Yes, in theory shorting could be profitable. However, NOT a good time to short now b/c BTC prices seem to be way below the BTC price trend line.

In this regard, it can be good to short when btc prices are above the trend line and to buy when btc prices are below the trendline.

Certainly, we have a variety of views concerning where is the trendline, exactly.

Personally, I am NOT very sophisticated in my trading, but I would put the current BTC trendline in the $650 to $850 arena. I have seen others making claims that the btc trend line is much higher than what I am saying. You could also assess the BTC trendline to be much lower; nonetheless, at $425-ish, in many accounts of the trendline, we are still much below the trendline..

IN sum, this particular moment does NOT appear to be a good time to short - absent some certain news that BTC prices are going to go down by 5-15%. i have NOT seen any such news, even though I have seen considerable fear mongering in that direction to suggest that for sure BTC prices are going down. I remain NOT very confident in such a prediction.

Do not try and bend the trendline. That's impossible. Instead only try to realize the truth.
What truth?
There is no trendline.

A trendline, to the extent to which it exists, becomes more apparent after the passage of time, and you could be correct that there is NO trendline. I am putting my money on that there is a trendline and BTC prices are going to move up.

How about you? Are you putting any money into BTC?

So far, I am NOT putting more money into BTC than I am willing to lose, but I am putting in more than I had originally planned to put in.... The reason that I am putting more into BTC is b/c I am more informed about bitcoin today than I was 5 months ago.

Quote from: windjc on May 06, 2014, 08:21:05 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 06, 2014, 08:12:51 AM

Quote from: p0peji on May 06, 2014, 08:02:52 AM

Great, that stupid POS news killed all the great downward momentum, now it is back to playing the waiting game... Cry

Kinda what I was thinking. The market's been high on Hopium for a damn month. No reason for it. Hangover's gonna be a bitch.

Hopium.

That's the ideal word for it.

The market reacts like its the worlds last bitcoin, everytime it has the slightest reason to. Meanwhile, no new fiat is coming in and traders are just passing coins back and forth while money slowly leaves the exchanges.

Hopium. I concede that I have that affliction, too.

Quote from: RUEHL on May 06, 2014, 01:33:37 PM

BTC China, Huobi, Okcoin and two other exchanges are pulling out of the BTC Summit.

http://www.coindesk.com/five-chinese-exchange-ceos-pull-out-conference/

"CEOs of five major Chinese bitcoin exchanges have withdrawn from this weekend’s Global Bitcoin Summit in Beijing, after banks forced most of them to close accounts related to bitcoin activity."

I saw that too. It seems pretty last minute and pretty bearish.

Quote from: RUEHL on May 06, 2014, 03:25:00 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 06, 2014, 01:54:20 PM

Quote from: RUEHL on May 06, 2014, 01:33:37 PM

BTC China, Huobi, Okcoin and two other exchanges are pulling out of the BTC Summit.

http://www.coindesk.com/five-chinese-exchange-ceos-pull-out-conference/

"CEOs of five major Chinese bitcoin exchanges have withdrawn from this weekend’s Global Bitcoin Summit in Beijing, after banks forced most of them to close accounts related to bitcoin activity."

I saw that too. It seems pretty last minute and pretty bearish.

Yea, the BTC Summit is going to be a bust.

The earlier advertisement of the BTC Summit that I saw a few weeks ago had listed several prominent members of the various exchanges as presenters. The most recent listing of presenters showed only a couple of prominent presenters. They won't need a very big room, and maybe they will NOT need any break out sessions. The big name presenters may run out of things to say after half a day, and they will just have question / answer sessions.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 06, 2014, 03:53:30 PM

Quote from: Teppino on May 06, 2014, 12:44:54 PM

As far as i know we had bubbles of comparable magnitude before, with or without China.

The evolution of the BTC price since Oct/2013 can be explained in terms of Chinese events only, and does not seem to react to any events outside China. Even the Feb/10 drop related to MtGOX was probably due to Mark's claim of a 'bug in the protocol' rather than the dealings of MtGOX itself.

So it is hard to deny that the rise from ~100$ to ~1000$ and the current ~450$ are entirely due to the Chinese market. If we consider percentual increase in price, indeed there were comparable bubbles before. If we consider total demand for BTC, China was about 10x all the previous bubbles combined.

You are talking baloney, Jorge, by attempting to give so much weight to China. Surely they have had an effect on price, but the effect is NOT as big as you seem to be making it out to be. Even you were GOX obsessed for several weeks, and NOW you are China obsessed b/c you seem to be turning this subject and spin into a form of FUD spreading.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 07, 2014, 01:48:33 AM

Quote from: Adrian-x on May 07, 2014, 12:36:50 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 06, 2014, 09:29:22 PM

NOTE: There is nothing notable today.

I thought Adam asking you to get some skin in the game was notable Wink

Not drinking while playing the drinking game is cause for suspicion.

Please suspiciate at will. Wink

As I said many times, I will buy bitcoin if and when I believe that it will be worth the trouble, compared to credit card etc. I will not buy "just to try", not for investment, not "just in case it becomes worth a zillion some day".

(By the way, I consider that last argument a sleazy sales trick to get thousands of small buyers, not only to raise the price - 100'000 people buying 0.1 BTC is 10'000 BTC taken off the market - but also to claim "increasing adoption".)

Your position is a little bit ridiculous, Jorge. In essence you are claiming that you do NOT want to be a pawn of the bitcoin system. You need to invest at least .1BTC in bitcoin.. just to experience it.... and to be a more credible scholar. Your supposed sitting on the sidelines and preserving objectivity makes little to no sense.... and surely you are smarter than that. So dig in and become more invoremed and become more credible in the BTC world.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 07, 2014, 06:00:37 AM

Quote from: jl2012 on May 07, 2014, 04:51:50 AM

PBOC can't kill bitcoin. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger.

I agree with this, but in the short term that which doesn't kill you makes you cheaper.

I used to agree with this, until a few years ago. I no longer believe that statement to be true.

Quote from: latoxine on May 07, 2014, 05:13:15 PM

Quote from: BitChick on May 07, 2014, 05:09:03 PM

Quote from: latoxine on May 07, 2014, 05:07:15 PM

Quote from: dannyspk on May 07, 2014, 05:00:52 PM

Quote from: BitChick on May 07, 2014, 04:57:45 PM

Quote from: latoxine on May 07, 2014, 04:56:34 PM

Isn't it 1h am in china ? They don't sleep ?

usually things append around 8h am chinese time no ?

We are ignoring China now. They can join us or get left behind. Wink

I don't think so. High volume on all the exchanges.

yes, now, but when I look the charts, it seems that the last big dump moove were in the morning around 6-8h am chinese time...And usually quite at this evening time...

May the gravity law be the stronger, I want to buy some coins at good price before I die !

It could very well be a "good price" right now. Wink

Please no ! I'm loosing my hair ! Was about to buy at 420 ( trigger at 403 ) And I'm waiting for a good pump...Is it make me what you call a bear ( beer ? ) Cheesy

EDIT : waiting for a dump, not a pump.

Seems like a losing strategy to wait for the best possible price to buy BTC. Seems better (and safer) to buy BTC as the price is going down. Even though you may NOT minimize your average price per BTC, at least you will NOT be chasing the price up or be left at the train station.

Quote from: Walsoraj on May 07, 2014, 06:52:16 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 07, 2014, 06:50:12 PM

Seems like a losing strategy to wait for the best possible price to buy BTC. Seems better (and safer) to buy BTC as the price is going down. Even though you may NOT minimize your average price per BTC, at least you will NOT be chasing the price up or be left at the train station.

Translation: Contrary to the advice of almost every experienced trader, trying to call the bottom is a good idea.

*edit*

And I bought a lot of bitcoin at much higher price and desperately need the support of greater fools.

Your "translation" makes LITTLE to NO sense, and seems to be an attempt to be argumentative b/c you seem to be butt hurt that BTC is NOT going to zero or to double digits or anywhere near those prices that you have been projecting. You seem to have unrealistic and overly pessimistic views about the long term potentials for BTC, which makes me wonder why you participate in this thread? Are you trying to "save" us from bitcoin or do you merely get joy in the spreading of FUD?

My comment in the above post is NOT based on my own position in BTC. I am saying what I believe to be a good BTC investment strategy for someone who wants to get into BTC. In sum, invest in BTC on the way down, b/c currently BTC prices are good and inevitably in the medium term they will be going up (likely this calendar year or even within the coming months).

I am NEITHER biased by NOR worried about my own position in BTC (currently average buy-in price of $599) either b/c I am in BTC long, and I have considerable confidence that BTC is on its way up, at least in the next couple of years (or sooner) and that fairly easily BTC prices will go above my average buy-in price of $599.

Accordingly, I feel that I do NOT need to convince anyone else to buy into BTC b/c it seems very likely that BTC prices will be going up - NO matter what I say..

As you may or may NOT have heard, there is network momentum with BTC that will likely continue to cause exponential growth in BTC prices - whether that growth is 10x (as it has been historically in the last 4 years) or 2x (which is more modest), I am fairly confident that some form of exponential growth in BTC will continue to take place. I am more inclined to think that exponential growth will be 2x to 5x in the next few years rather than 10x, as it had been.

Yet, my investment in BTC does NOT rely upon exponential growth b/c I invested only as much as I am willing to lose. I would be completely happy with BTC performance that beats my average stock index fund returns (which is about 6% per year), yet in my view, even if BTC does NOT meet or beat that 6% per year, for me, it remains a diversified investment in my portfolio that is worth the risk b/c of a considerable upside potential.

Quote from: Walsoraj on May 07, 2014, 07:26:13 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 07, 2014, 07:24:25 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on May 07, 2014, 06:52:16 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 07, 2014, 06:50:12 PM

Seems like a losing strategy to wait for the best possible price to buy BTC. Seems better (and safer) to buy BTC as the price is going down. Even though you may NOT minimize your average price per BTC, at least you will NOT be chasing the price up or be left at the train station.

Translation: Contrary to the advice of almost every experienced trader, trying to call the bottom is a good idea.

*edit*

And I bought a lot of bitcoin at much higher price and desperately need the support of greater fools.

Your "translation" makes LITTLE to NO sense, and seems to be an attempt to be argumentative b/c you seem to be butt hurt that BTC is NOT going to zero or to double digits or anywhere near those prices that you have been projecting. You seem to have unrealistic and overly pessimistic views about the long term potentials for BTC, which makes me wonder why you participate in this thread? Are you trying to "save" us from bitcoin or do you merely get joy in the spreading of FUD?

My comment in the above post is NOT based on my own position in BTC. I am saying what I believe to be a good BTC investment strategy for someone who wants to get into BTC. In sum, invest in BTC on the way down, b/c currently BTC prices are good and inevitably in the medium term they will be going up (likely this calendar year or even within the coming months).

I am NEITHER biased by NOR worried about my own position in BTC (currently average buy-in price of $599) either b/c I am in BTC long, and I have considerable confidence that BTC is on its way up, at least in the next couple of years (or sooner) and that fairly easily BTC prices will go above my average buy-in price of $599.

Accordingly, I feel that I do NOT need to convince anyone else to buy into BTC b/c it seems very likely that BTC prices will be going up - NO matter what I say..

As you may or may NOT have heard, there is network momentum with BTC that will likely continue to cause exponential growth in BTC prices - whether that growth is 10x (as it has been historically in the last 4 years) or 2x (which is more modest), I am fairly confident that some form of exponential growth in BTC will continue to take place. I am more inclined to think that exponential growth will be 2x to 5x in the next few years rather than 10x, as it had been.

Yet, my investment in BTC does NOT rely upon exponential growth b/c I invested only as much as I am willing to lose. I would be completely happy with BTC performance that beats my average stock index fund returns (which is about 6% per year), yet in my view, even if BTC does NOT meet or beat that 6% per year, for me, it remains a diversified investment in my portfolio that is worth the risk b/c of a considerable upside potential.

You are a fool who wastes many words.

And, you are profound and pithy. I'm impressed. Shocked

Quote from: Chalkbot on May 07, 2014, 09:42:29 PM

Quote from: conspirosphere.tk on May 07, 2014, 09:18:42 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 07, 2014, 08:54:38 PM

I keep waiting and waiting for my cheap coins and dumbass politicians do something to convince the world that they are going to screw up everything they can screw up and Bitcoin is needed more than ever.

The waiting is over:
JPMorgan Shut Down A World-Famous Economist's Bank Account With No Warning http://www.businessinsider.com/jpm-shuts-down-ocampos-bank-account-2014-5

Heh, this JP Morgan Chase thing is fascinating. They are shutting down "high risk" accounts, which essentially translates to anyone not meeting the status quo, I guess. The definition of "high risk" is probably going to become really fuzzy soon (more so than now), as they realize that it's in their best interest to freeze pretty much any account. High balance accounts provide them with free liquidity which they can play with until the entire process is resolved, while low balance accounts threaten to take them in the red otherwise, and have their own maintenance costs associated. The best part is, it's all state sanctioned!

They've essentially made themselves immune to a bank run, at the cost of perhaps driving away some customers to the competition. But what are customers during a run on banks? Liabilities.

With quantitative easing and fractional reserve banking, they really do NOT need customers.

We are redundant, and that is one of the reasons why they charge us to use their bank and to keep our money there or possibly, if we are lucky and keep large sums of money with them, they will pay us .001% interest on our balances.

Quote from: KFR on May 08, 2014, 03:14:40 AM

Quote from: bobdude17 on May 08, 2014, 03:07:17 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 08, 2014, 02:22:57 AM

I didn't say a word about China. This is strictly technical. The end of a trend needs to be marked with an increase in volume.

I would not wait for an increase in volume, I don't think it will ever come.
Mt Gox ruined that trust, these exchanges are just too amatuer. Nobody feels comfortable putting large amounts of fiat/coins into them anymore. Large buyers and sellers will wait for institutional level exchanges, and in the meantime the buying will happen through Second Market, dark pools, and directly from miners.

There won't be an uptick in volume on Bitstamp, the stream of coins coming in for sale will slowly dwindle as the off chain buying increases. You will wait for large volume, but suddenly there will hardly be any coins for sale. Buying on Stamp-level exchanges will be for small fish and last-resort larger traders.

Nailed it.

So what happens to price under this scenario? Price slowly trickles upward due to lack of coins, without volume?

Quote from: bobdude17 on May 08, 2014, 03:29:10 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 08, 2014, 03:22:16 AM

Quote from: KFR on May 08, 2014, 03:14:40 AM

Quote from: bobdude17 on May 08, 2014, 03:07:17 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 08, 2014, 02:22:57 AM

I didn't say a word about China. This is strictly technical. The end of a trend needs to be marked with an increase in volume.

I would not wait for an increase in volume, I don't think it will ever come.
Mt Gox ruined that trust, these exchanges are just too amatuer. Nobody feels comfortable putting large amounts of fiat/coins into them anymore. Large buyers and sellers will wait for institutional level exchanges, and in the meantime the buying will happen through Second Market, dark pools, and directly from miners.

There won't be an uptick in volume on Bitstamp, the stream of coins coming in for sale will slowly dwindle as the off chain buying increases. You will wait for large volume, but suddenly there will hardly be any coins for sale. Buying on Stamp-level exchanges will be for small fish and last-resort larger traders.

Nailed it.

So what happens to price under this scenario? Price slowly trickles upward due to lack of coins, without volume?

It will trickle slowly at first, because experienced bitcoin traders will scoff at such a low volume rally. Then panic will grow as they notice that the sell walls are not being replaced. Price will then rocket on the low volume of traders who still use these exchanges. The hole these traders will be trying to fit through will be much smaller than anticipated because large buyers have cut off the stream of coins for sale nearer to the source.

I really do NOT have any significant dispute with the practice that you are describing; however, I remain concerned that BTC prices seem to continue to be set by the exchanges.

Accordingly, it remains easy and inexpensive to transfer BTC around, including quickly transferring BTC to any exchange, and if there is NOT much fiat on these various exchanges, the BTC that is transferred onto the exchanges can purposefully be used to manipulate BTC prices downward. So, even though it may NOT be profitable to sell the BTC on the exchange at the lowered price, BTC could be bought off of the exchanges at the purposefully lowered exchange price.

Hopefully someday soon BTC price can be reflected by overall supply and demand of BTC rather than price manipulation that seems to be based on the ease of moving BTC as compared with the difficulties and expense in moving fiat.

Quote from: mmitech on May 08, 2014, 01:35:34 PM

Quote from: niothor on May 08, 2014, 01:33:16 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on May 08, 2014, 01:30:39 PM

Quote from: mmitech on May 08, 2014, 01:28:09 PM

what a fucking joke, the last couple of days some of you were crying all around the place about the rounding up and about Bitstamp ripping customers off, and most of you agreed on the $5 min order, in fact most of you said it should minimize the effect, but today you are crying again about them doing what you wished for !!!!! what the heck is wrong with people Angry

Too much coffee, huh? Cheesy

By my count, 3 out of 4 posts here welcome the decision.

Maybe he got his numbers from another thread? I think I saw a thread related to this bitstamp move earlier

davout is pissing me off on the other thread, but we all know why Cheesy

What other thread?

Quote from: mmitech on May 08, 2014, 04:18:56 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 08, 2014, 04:13:52 PM

Quote from: mmitech on May 08, 2014, 01:35:34 PM

Quote from: niothor on May 08, 2014, 01:33:16 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on May 08, 2014, 01:30:39 PM

Quote from: mmitech on May 08, 2014, 01:28:09 PM

what a fucking joke, the last couple of days some of you were crying all around the place about the rounding up and about Bitstamp ripping customers off, and most of you agreed on the $5 min order, in fact most of you said it should minimize the effect, but today you are crying again about them doing what you wished for !!!!! what the heck is wrong with people Angry

Too much coffee, huh? Cheesy

By my count, 3 out of 4 posts here welcome the decision.

Maybe he got his numbers from another thread? I think I saw a thread related to this bitstamp move earlier

davout is pissing me off on the other thread, but we all know why Cheesy

What other thread?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597647.0

Thnx Mmitech.

Personally, I like the $5 minimum trade solution - mostly b/c I am a little bit irritated by bots... he he he...

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 08, 2014, 04:22:10 PM

In another thread people are arguing that SecondMarket's BIT fund only buys bitcoins on Thursdays. That could be wrong (perhaps they merely update their accounting weekly on Thursdays).

But, assuming that the conjecture is true, here is a theory for the "Thursday dumps": SMBIT are said to buy opportunistically from various sources, but only if and when some investor buys their shares. Perhaps miners and other habitual SMBIT sources hold their bitcoins until Thursday waiting for a possible SMBIT call, and when that doesn't materialize they sell them on market instead.

(OK, ok, but it this still not the silliest theory on this thread, is it?)

I believe that it would be a bad business practice for any big player trader to publicly disclose any exact details of its buy/sell pattern ahead of time. Accordingly, the logic does NOT make sense that any big player trader would engage in such a before-hand disclosure of such.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 08, 2014, 04:51:41 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 08, 2014, 04:35:28 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 08, 2014, 04:22:10 PM

In another thread people are arguing that SecondMarket's BIT fund only buys bitcoins on Thursdays. That could be wrong (perhaps they merely update their accounting weekly on Thursdays).

I believe that it would be a bad business practice for any big player trader to publicly disclose any exact details of its buy/sell pattern ahead of time. Accordingly, the logic does NOT make sense that any big player trader would engage in such a before-hand disclosure of such.

Maybe, but they have been buying less than 2000 BTC per week on average. Does that make them "big players", enough to influence the market price?

I am making the statement of best business practice as a general principle, and the point that I was making is NOT really whether they are big enough to affect the market, but whether other traders will time their trading behavior based on Second Market's announced behavior.

Even 50BTC a week may be considered big, if you know that it is going to take place every week at a specific time.

Quote from: gizmoh on May 08, 2014, 06:45:37 PM

Sunlot holdings based in cyprus controlled by suspicious personalities , might get full control on more than 200,000 btc for the price of 1 btc Undecided

Goxing never ends!

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-settlement-proposal-granted-key-preliminary-approval/

I understand that there are mixed feelings about what a rehabilitation of Gox may mean to bitcoin, but really your summary seems to be building too much negative into the proposed settlement. I believe that they had put up a real decent FAQ when they were proposing to save gox....

Yeah, NO one really wants to continue to get Goxed... but a rehab of GOX may be better than a liquidation. Better for those who had money in GOX and better for bitcoin as a whole.. that is if the rehab does NOT turn out to be some major sham, as you seem to be suggesting.

Quote from: dreamspark on May 08, 2014, 08:55:24 PM

You should head into the #mtgox-talk irc channel to find out all the details of sunlot and their plans. It stinks to be honest.

They also want to spend $10mm on the investigation of the 'theft'.

Why does the sunlot plan stink b/c 1) past customers are going to get scammed, 2) Mark Karples Et al will NOT be held to justice, 3) sunlot is going to run off with GOX assets without bringing any value, and/or 4) some other reason?

Does it stink worse than liquidation?

Is there a better plan?

Quote from: EuroTrash on May 09, 2014, 06:41:19 AM

Quote from: rpietila on May 09, 2014, 06:00:44 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on May 08, 2014, 10:07:32 PM

Like the coins that you allegedly lost by taking an unsecured laptop to an sauna party, where it got stolen.

Source?

Not sure if your intention is to troll the troll, but to be fair I read that post of yours too last year.

Another reason why the forum should NOT allow the editing of posts or the removal of posts, except under exceptional circumstances.

Quote from: Blue on May 09, 2014, 07:55:16 AM

Quote from: Dabs on May 09, 2014, 07:46:16 AM

I'm curious. What actually happened? (about the lost coins / laptop / sauna / beach / moon)

coins / laptop / sauna & beach they ALL went to da moon

Like a puzzle to attempt to resolve

Quote from: keewee on May 09, 2014, 07:59:47 AM

Quote from: Dabs on May 09, 2014, 07:46:16 AM

I'm curious. What actually happened? (about the lost coins / laptop / sauna / beach / moon)

This is the gist of it. It's implied that some number of coins were lost but it's unknown if they were recovered. There's more if you have a look at this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=174620.0

Quote from: rpietila on May 13, 2013, 04:36:33 PM

Translated text from Finnish original added in blue in front of original text (thank you rebuilder):

.....

-The staff of the hotel had entered the sauna space on at least 3 separate occasions in the first 24 hours alone, of a sauna reservation of 59 hours length in total, despite prior agreement to the contrary, it being clearly mentioned in the daily order [that the sauna is not to be entered at will, I presume] and repeated reminders of this. Some of the entries happened when we were not guarding the sauna since we had been asked to retire to our rooms by 24:00 at the latest, although the sauna was in our uninterrupted use from thursday 10:00 to saturday 23:00. Already on friday 10.5 between 00 and 12 o'clock personal items belonging to conference participants had gone missing from the sauna. Additionally the sauna had been cleaned, so that our ability to discover the full amount of lost/stolen property immediately as the conference was still ongoing was weakened.

The main host of the conference (Pietilä) ordered an internal preliminary investigation on the matter on fri. 10.5. at approx. 18 hours. He used as personnel mainly himself and acting host ["responsible/trustee host"] Roni Blomberg, a hotel employee by the name of "Butler Charlotta" and a representative of the maintenance company, "Mikke". By approximately 8 o'clock saturday morning, the preliminary investigation led to the understanding at least 1 bitcoin worth of property had been lost (repurchase value of identifiably lost items), but private keys possibly used to store bitcoins had been copied/destroyed to a greater extent. Among other things, Pietilä's Macbook Air computer was at the sauna for the entire night, thursday-friday 9.-10.5

Our estimate of the upper bound of damages is 100000 bitcoins (market value approx. 9,1 million euro, repurchase value with immediate market operation approx. 10,2 million euro). Damages are divided in two parts, copied and lost bitcoin private keys.

For copied private keys the situation can be sorted out by transferring all the bitcoins of all the participants to different addresses, at which point we weill see, whether they have in the meantime been unrightfully spent. Finding this out must happen a soon as possible (if private keys have been saved, no financial loss will be caused, unless they are unrightfully used before the legal owner transfers them to a new, safe address). Due to the extremely strict security requirements of handling private keys required to use large amounts of bitcoins, the operation is however labour-intensive and carrying it out must be done by each participant such, that most of the work can not be delegated. For example an inventory of bitcoins of Pietilä and the companies he owns/leads requires about 16 hors of work to complete. Pietilä's own consulting fees (list price http://hopea.fi/bitcoin-kurssihistoria/) in April have varied between 600-2400 euro. This is one of the most urgent tasks, which will override most other markings in Pietilä's calendar for the week 13.-19.5.

The sum of money lost due to loss of private keys can not be reliably found out, but we believe the participants will notice if the sum rises to the thousands of bitcoins. This will be found out in about a week (a week is also our ETA for finding out the sum total of stolen bitcoins).

....

Risto Pietilä.

Quote from: rpietila on May 13, 2013, 07:15:25 PM

Now I try hard to minimize the risk to the well-being of anyone, and to raise the stakes in the game described as follows: if someone actually copied the private keys there (I had access to over 6000 bitcoins unencrypted, open in my computer browser windows during the time it was compromised), he will have to suffer the fact becoming public in its entirety + all the details, if he spends the bitcoins before I have the time to spend them myself. Due to extensive precautions involved, it will take me approximately a week of calendar time + several thousand dollars, to fully ensure that the bitcoins are safe, by sending them to uncompromised addresses. I plan to concentrate on that during this week.

Wow!!! This is quite the story.

To me, the descriptive nature of the story seems to show that rpietila is capable of a considerable amount of engagement in drama, denial of responsibility and engaging in sloppy safeguarding practices... ....

Certainly, we cannot judge anyone's character based on one incident, and a lot of things happen in the day to day lives of people; however the potential of having anywhere between 6,000 and 100,000 bitcoins in jeopardy in May 2013 is quite amazing in itself.

Quote from: dreamspark on May 09, 2014, 08:40:59 AM

It means he counted them but had no idea how many there were supposed to be Grin

That is a good way of putting it. A guy who is supposedly and outward appearing to be so meticulous in his accounting does NOT know how many BTC he had. Cheesy

Quote from: rpietila on May 09, 2014, 08:51:56 AM

The whole thing is still within the bounds of "extreme incompetence is indistinguishable from malice" so that if the cleaning lady was pilfering on her own account, there needs to be no other malignant actor in the game. It sure felt paranoid at that time, because I had no reason to expect extreme incompetence (nor malice, of course) from a hotel that I had patroned for over 10 years.

As a comparison, Hotel Kämp, which is the only $2,000+ hotel in Finland, also failed in many counts, but I had no reason to expect better, so it was not suspicious, just sad. (And yes, Justin Bieber occupied the small room just next to us.)

This description just shows that Rpietila was and still seems to be incapable of accepting responsibility for his own actions. His action relates to how many BTC he would potentially put at jeaopardy. You gotta expect that some staff or cleaning ladies to be irresponsible and possibly even malice.. so safeguards should have been taken regarding the coins.

Quote from: dreamspark on May 09, 2014, 02:35:28 PM

Bulls be like haha no one cares about China. Moon.

Bears be like just the last pump before the single digit dump.

Whether a bear or a bull, at some point this train is going to be leaving whether china is on board or NOT. Or is that, just me seeing this matter in terms of bullish tinted glasses?

Take for example that we are really getting close to the 10th.. and the market has to account for all the chinese who had wanted to get out have already gotten out. The only chinese left into BTC are the bullish ones. Therefore, let's get this train going forth with whoever happens to be on board.

Quote from: freebit13 on May 09, 2014, 02:39:57 PM

The 3d MACD has moved into green (if only slightly) on most exchanges and the 1w is backing off... I'm quite positive.

I am NOT sure what any of this means, either... but the 3d has been pretty solidly green, and even the 1 week is turning into a green in recent hours.

Quote from: windjc on May 09, 2014, 10:06:00 AM

Quote from: rpietila on May 09, 2014, 10:00:27 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 09, 2014, 08:59:57 AM

You didn't answer any of my questions. If you still have your coins they were never "stolen." Only you computer was stolen.

I feel the pressure to answer only the questions that I wish to. I am not doing this to please you but to edify the lurkers, remember.

As I told in the very detailed report to the hotel management already after the event (quoted here also just a while ago):

- laptop was left in the secure room but the security was breached by the hotel (and possibly others)
- it was there when we found out
- our immediate investigation could not conclude if bitcoin keys were stolen or not (other stuff was missing)
- the hotel was incensed that I had investigation going on and them to blame
- we had a Saturday morning top meeting with their CEO, me, and aides of both
- conclusion was that they allow only police to conduct crime investigation, which in my opinion would have profited nothing
- they told us to go to hell in the earliest opportunity
- after complying, the bitcoins were secured and we did not find any transfers made in the meanwhile
- the sauna was deducted from the bill and officially all is fine
- I am building a new hotel, much bigger, better and more secure, so that the matter should not trouble us anymore.

So you never lost shit. You didn't even lose your computer. Yet, you came on the forum and announced that your bitcoin was stolen.

Good grief man. That is exactly why people have a hard time trusting you, despite you adding interesting knowledge from the board from time to time.

You SHOULD try to please me. And the rest of us by being honest.

Seems to be an example of unnecessary drama where any "normal" person would NOT say anything about such an incident, if it were to occur to him/her.

Maybe Rpietila subscribes to the school of thought that any publicity is good publicity?

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 09, 2014, 02:50:56 PM

Quote from: freebit13 on May 09, 2014, 02:39:57 PM

The 3d MACD has moved into green (if only slightly) on most exchanges and the 1w is backing off... I'm quite positive.

I am NOT sure what any of this means, either... but the 3d has been pretty solidly green, and even the 1 week is turning into a green in recent hours.

Quote from: dreamspark on May 09, 2014, 02:52:48 PM

The 1w MACD is no where near crossing...

I was referring to the color of the candle - rather than the crossing of the lines. I understand that the crossing of the lines is a much more delayed occurrence - with a need for several green candles before the lines cross.

Quote from: dreamspark on May 09, 2014, 03:53:55 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 09, 2014, 03:47:39 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 09, 2014, 02:50:56 PM

Quote from: freebit13 on May 09, 2014, 02:39:57 PM

The 3d MACD has moved into green (if only slightly) on most exchanges and the 1w is backing off... I'm quite positive.

I am NOT sure what any of this means, either... but the 3d has been pretty solidly green, and even the 1 week is turning into a green in recent hours.

Quote from: dreamspark on May 09, 2014, 02:52:48 PM

The 1w MACD is no where near crossing...

I was referring to the color of the candle - rather than the crossing of the lines. I understand that the crossing of the lines is a much more delayed occurrence - with a need for several green candles before the lines cross.

Im not sure I see what your saying. This is the 1w chart...

How is the latest MACD candle green? They have to cross for that to happen.

It appears that I was referring to the price and to the volume candles, and I was NOT referring to the MACD candle.

In that regard, whatever I was saying may have been mumbo jumbo in the prediction realm - and different from what you were saying b/c I am NOT very familiar with the MACD - besides seeing when the line crosses up or down. So maybe in the end, it could be best to disregard my references to the possibly less than meaningful green candles... he he he..

Quote from: Walsoraj on May 09, 2014, 04:05:35 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on April 26, 2014, 03:13:32 PM

Could be foreigners removing bitcoin from exchanges because they do not have chinese bank accounts. Once this process is complete, buying pressure will rapidly decline and ~~double~~ single digit coins become a real possibility.

Bump for truthiness.

Thanks for Exhibit A - which seems to be a non-contextualized bull crap FUD spreading effort to quote yourself...

I believe I mentioned something like this earlier about this kind of Walsoraj tendency to post crap that has little connection with "real possibilities"

Quote from: windjc on May 09, 2014, 08:41:17 PM

Quote from: BitchicksHusband on May 09, 2014, 08:33:34 PM

Quoting somebody from a year ago at a panic moment when they thought somebody could have stolen their coins?

When they paid a hotel extra for no staff to be present during a certain time, only to have staff wandering through unannounced?

Wow, dude. I don't even know what to say. If you have to go back a year to barely find dirt on somebody, I think you have probably accomplished the opposite of what you were trying to do.

I've never found Risto to be anything but honest and concerned about everyone's well-being to the best of his ability. That's a rare commodity around here.

I didn't quote anything from a year ago. I didn't even read the old thread. I am simply asking him questions and getting responses based on things he is saying in last 24 hours.

Maybe you should get his **** out of your mouth Shocked

long enough to read the entire exchange.

I'm just playing with you, don't get angry.

I think pumpkin head quoted Rpietila, and then Rpietila provided an amorphous and ambiguous and contradictory and evasive attempt to contextualize that made matters worse.

I genuinely appreciate Rpietila's various contributions to this thread and the forum; however, Rpietila is NOT very strong in the taking responsibility arena, and he seems to want to add drama and self-glorification where neither drama nor self-glorification seems appropriate.

I don't even agree with the seemingly bearish nature of windjc; however, he has been spot on in his various posts to highlight the contradictory and illogical muddle that Rpietila had been attempting to communicate. Rpietila just got worked up, failed to adequately respond and claimed to "ignore" Windjc. I am generally a pretty big fan of Rpietila's technical contributions and analyses (to the extent that he is NOT charging for them), but he should get real, and slow down with some of the self-aggrandizing.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 09, 2014, 09:18:33 PM

Quote from: windjc on May 09, 2014, 09:08:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 09, 2014, 09:03:37 PM

Quote from: windjc on May 09, 2014, 08:41:17 PM

Quote from: BitchicksHusband on May 09, 2014, 08:33:34 PM

Quoting somebody from a year ago at a panic moment when they thought somebody could have stolen their coins?

When they paid a hotel extra for no staff to be present during a certain time, only to have staff wandering through unannounced?

Wow, dude. I don't even know what to say. If you have to go back a year to barely find dirt on somebody, I think you have probably accomplished the opposite of what you were trying to do.

I've never found Risto to be anything but honest and concerned about everyone's well-being to the best of his ability. That's a rare commodity around here.

I didn't quote anything from a year ago. I didn't even read the old thread. I am simply asking him questions and getting responses based on things he is saying in last 24 hours.

Maybe you should get his **** out of your mouth Shocked

long enough to read the entire exchange.

I'm just playing with you, don't get angry.

I think pumpkin head quoted Rpietila, and then Rpietila provided an amorphous and ambiguous and contradictory and evasive attempt to contextualize that made matters worse.

I genuinely appreciate Rpietila's various contributions to this thread and the forum; however, Rpietila is NOT very strong in the taking responsibility arena, and he seems to want to add drama and self-glorification where neither drama nor self-glorification seems appropriate.

I don't even agree with the seemingly bearish nature of windjc; however, he has been spot on in his various posts to highlight the contradictory and illogical muddle that Rpietila had been attempting to communicate. Rpietila just got worked up, failed to adequately respond and claimed to "ignore" Windjc. I am generally a pretty big fan of Rpietila's technical contributions and analyses (to the extent that he is NOT charging for them), but he should get real, and slow down with some of the self-aggrandizing.

Pretty much.

I'd comment some more on this but I have a lunch date with Paris Hilton.

Big deal, I'm getting head from Alan Greenspan right this moment.^{He's okay. Not great, but okay.}

Couldn't be better than Justin Bieber.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 10, 2014, 05:51:50 AM

How MtGOX's depositors' claims would be computed under US liquidation laws:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=587295.msg6644323#msg6644323

If that holds for Japanese laws too, it has important implications for the MtGOX liquidation vs. ressurection issue. I can see that some clients would strongly want one way rather than the other.

Probably the best way to predict how the Japanese court would evaluate the value of the bitcoins would be to use some Japanese precedent, rather than American precedent.

Yet if the precedent is unclear, and the calculation of value would cause inequitable results, then stakeholders can propose other value calculating methodologies. Certainly a lot of stakeholders would like to receive their value from GOX in whatever asset that it was held. So if they had bitcoins in GOX, then they should get bitcoin back. If they held fiat in GOX, then they should get fiat back... and the ratio of how much they get back would depend upon the total solvency of GOX. A liquidation would likely get them less than 20% of their holdings; however, a rehabilitation would have the potential of recovering a higher percentage, over time (even though possibly the initial payoff amount may be low with a rehab).

Personally, to me, it does NOT make any sense to pay off stakeholders in any other currency (or asset) other than what they were holding or to attempt to value it in any way - b/c some stakeholders were choosing (on their own - maybe somewhat coerced on the circumstances) to trade btc and fiat.

Quote from: wachtwoord on May 10, 2014, 11:43:59 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 10, 2014, 09:43:29 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 10, 2014, 05:51:50 AM

How MtGOX's depositors' claims would be computed under US liquidation laws:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=587295.msg6644323#msg6644323

If that holds for Japanese laws too, it has important implications for the MtGOX liquidation vs. ressurection issue. I can see that some clients would strongly want one way rather than the other.

Probably the best way to predict how the Japanese court would evaluate the value of the bitcoins would be to use some Japanese precedent, rather than American precedent.

Yet if the precedent is unclear, and the calculation of value would cause inequitable results, then stakeholders can propose other value calculating methodologies. Certainly a lot of stakeholders would like to receive their value from GOX in whatever asset that it was held. So if they had bitcoins in GOX, then they should get bitcoin back. If they held fiat in GOX, then they should get fiat back... and the ratio of how much they get back would depend upon the total solvency of GOX. A liquidation would likely get them less than 20% of their holdings; however, a rehabilitation would have the potential of recovering a higher percentage, over time (even though possibly the initial payoff amount may be low with a rehab).

Personally, to me, it does NOT make any sense to pay off stakeholders in any other currency (or asset) other than what they were holding or to attempt to value it in any way - b/c some stakeholders were choosing (on their own - maybe somewhat coerced on the circumstances) to trade btc and fiat.

It doesn't make much sense to me either, but this is the law in many countries.

No matter what, arguments can be made and presented to the court to suggest more equitable ways to proceed forward, and there would be a whole hell-of-a lot of more flexibility in a rehabilitation arrangement to structure the settlement in the most fair and agreeable way. The more that the court is forced to supervise the outcome, the less work that it wants to do. The more the court is involved in overseeing the outcome, the more the proposed plan will need to address and to resolve details that could result in future controversy and to finalize the matter.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 10, 2014, 02:26:11 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 10, 2014, 09:43:29 AM

Certainly a lot of stakeholders would like to receive their value from GOX in whatever asset that it was held. So if they had bitcoins in GOX, then they should get bitcoin back. If they held fiat in GOX, then they should get fiat back... and the ratio of how much they get back would depend upon the total solvency of GOX.

I don't think that any court would find that reasonable. Even if they viewed bitcoin as currency, rather than property, they would rather convert all assets to the national legal currency at current market rates, then pay the creditors in that currency according to the currency value of their claim. They would see it as unjustified complication to return debts in different currencies. (Just think of how bitcoin payments would be recorded in the liquidation proceedings.) If an euro is worth 300 yen now, why would a creditor be unhappy to get 300 yen instead of an euro? If a creditor is due 10'000$ for 100 kg of fish delivered to MtGOX, should the liquidator be obliged to give him back 20 kg of fish instead of 2000$?

But that comment is about another question, that makes a LOT of difference. Suppose that clients X and Y deposited 100 BTC each when the price was 10$, client Z deposited 100 BTC when the price was 1000$, and then client X (only) traded inside MtGOX until he had 300 BTC, and withdrew 100 BTC when the price was 1000$, leaving 200 BTC in the exchange. Under the "final MtGOX account balance" interpretation, with current price 500$, their claims would be

X = 200 BTC x 500 = 100'000 $
Y = 100 BTC x 500 = 50'000 $
Z = 100 BTC x 500 = 50'000 $

so X would get twice as much refund as Y or Z. On the other hand, under the US law interpretation as described in that post, their claims would be:

X = 100 BTC x 10, minus 100 BTC x 1000 = minus 99'000$ = lucky bastard, no claim.
Y = 100 BTC x 10 = 1000 $
Z = 100 BTC x 1000 = 100'000 $

so X would get nothing, and Z would get 100 times as much as Y.

So THAT is one big difference between the Sunlot plan and liquidation.

What I said is definitely as reasonable and possibly more reasonable than what you are describing.

The exchange kept operating. Accordingly, whatever balance was on the books at the time of the closing should be a relevant and important fact. As we know BTC prices have been highly volatile, which is another reason to reimburse in BTC, if that is what was held by the customer at the time of GOX's closing. I'm sure that these kinds of proposals can be made, and the court may be convinced that converting the assets may NOT bring the most equitable results - even though it may be more simple to calculate.

I agree with you that (and I made a similar point in an earlier post) there may be less latitude to formulate the calculation of value methodologies if the court decides that the outcome will remain a form of standard liquidation.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 10, 2014, 02:26:11 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 10, 2014, 09:43:29 AM

A liquidation would likely get them less than 20% of their holdings; however, a rehabilitation would have the potential of recovering a higher percentage, over time (even though possibly the initial payoff amount may be low with a rehab).

A liquidation would return to the clients some amount X that they can invest any way they like, including in MtGOX 2.0 if they want to. The Sunlot plan would return them less than X and force them to invest the remainder in MtGOX 2.0, with no option to get out. I still don't see how this can be better than that.

It is better whenever there is an outcome that is more agreeable to a larger number of people - standard utilitarian calculations, as you should understand such.

You seem to keep arguing for liquidation as if that brings the best value for everyone, yet you seem to be failing to account for the various arguments of the Gox customers. Yes, I realize that there are more than 100K GOX customers with various stakes; however, there needs to be some considerations on how to best make them whole and how they would like to proceed. If the previous customers would prefer to take their chances with a new GOX, then the court will need to consider that.

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 10, 2014, 02:59:51 PM

Quote from: joehal on May 10, 2014, 02:33:08 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 10, 2014, 02:26:11 PM

A liquidation would return to the clients some amount X that they can invest any way they like, including in MtGOX 2.0 if they want to. The Sunlot plan would return them less than X and force them to invest the remainder in MtGOX 2.0, with no option to get out. I still don't see how this can be better than that.

I'm guessing with the Sunlot plan, the clients have a small chance to get back their entire account. At least in a long time. And that is probably better than getting back only 20% or less (zero according to some here)

The problem is that the court would make this decision for the customers - and apparently few were consulted and truly support Gox 2.0

Courts are NOT going to take a vote, but they will allow for stakeholders to submit their arguments. Most courts consider it their obligation to look after the interests of minority or non-vocal stakeholders, as well.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 10, 2014, 03:40:14 PM

Quote from: joehal on May 10, 2014, 02:33:08 PM

I'm guessing with the Sunlot plan, the clients have a small chance to get back their entire account. At least in a long time.

That is just spin. They propose to give back (say) 10% of the assets and force clients to invest the other 10% into MtGOX2.0, and will count their share of whatever profit that MtGOX2.0 may make as the payment of the other 90%. Why is that better than giving clients the full 20%, so that they can invest those same 10% into Apple stock instead? The clients will surely recover their 90% back much faster this way.

You keep asking the same question over and over, as if you know the answer, and you keep suggesting the best answer, also.

The answer is going to vary with customers, and likely many customers would prefer to recover more than to recover less, but the devil is in the details, and hopefully, the court will take those considerations into account. IN the end, the court may impose something that the court believes is best for the situation as a whole (and maybe best for the court), which may NOT necessarily mean that customers get their whole payment back right away or may mean that customers are stuck with some equity stock.

Quote from: dreamspark on May 10, 2014, 08:24:48 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on May 10, 2014, 06:54:38 PM

Some of you are seriously cheering for a necro of mtgox?

Just know that you'll deserve any and all of the abuse you're going to get if that piece of shit exchange gets a second chance.

Yep, just why I don't get. Just take your 20% and let it die. Open a criminal investigation and find out what actually happened and close the case.

You are living in a dreamspark (oh wait?) if you believe that there is going to be any meaningful criminal investigation.

Quote from: dreamspark on May 10, 2014, 10:05:31 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 10, 2014, 09:40:43 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on May 10, 2014, 08:24:48 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on May 10, 2014, 06:54:38 PM

Some of you are seriously cheering for a necro of mtgox?

Just know that you'll deserve any and all of the abuse you're going to get if that piece of shit exchange gets a second chance.

Yep, just why I don't get. Just take your 20% and let it die. Open a criminal investigation and find out what actually happened and close the case.

You are living in a dreamspark (oh wait?) if you believe that there is going to be any meaningful criminal investigation.

Didn't say it would happen, just that is clearly exactly what should be happening, even if it doesn't its still the course of action that should be being taken.

I agree with you, but I just could NOT resist making the statement. Wink

Quote from: simtal on May 12, 2014, 09:17:33 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on May 12, 2014, 09:14:49 AM

Quote from: niothor on May 12, 2014, 09:06:26 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on May 12, 2014, 08:32:48 AM

buying seemingly started on both stamp and huobi

I was expecting someone to close the arb gap on them. but this will do.

So we're through the December ban , the January one , the April 15 deadline , the may 10th , why do people still watch Huobi?

The lack of buying interest in the west, creates the need to follow the Chinese 0% fee exchanges, with simulated volume. So, everyone could continue to live in their make believe land. thinking that there is demand for bitcoin somewhere.
When Chinese exchanges finally close, then soon there will be a proper drop, because there is no fake dreams to follow any more.

Wait, Chinese exchanges are closing?

You gotta find enough HODLers ready to sell, first. Part of the problem is that the selling volume seems to be drying up.

There are potential sources for new coins to sell, though, and we are all waiting to see whether these materialize.. If new sources of coins to sell materialize we could get coins into the $300s, maybe?

Quote from: octaft on May 12, 2014, 06:39:56 PM

Quote from: aminorex on May 12, 2014, 10:29:48 AM

saying that religion causes wars is like saying chemicals cause cancer. i have yet to see any living thing that did without chemicals, or any conscious mind that did without beliefs which cannot be concluded by evidence and logic alone.

it is difficult to take seriously anyone who attempts to preclude argument by declaring that disagreement is in itself disqualifying evidence - and probably not worth the effort to do so.

I think this is highly dependent on what you consider a "belief." If belief strictly means religion, I couldn't disagree more, agnostics being the clearest example. Or are we talking about beliefs like "I believe my wife isn't cheating on me." Even then, one could argue that you logically think that because you have a good relationship, or she is a very loyal person in general, or maybe you're just good at laying the pipe. I honestly have a hard time agreeing that no person can only have beliefs backed in evidence and logic.

I believe that Aminorex's point is valid, and there is NO person who does NOT make leaps of faith in his/her daily activities. Whether those leaps of faith rise to the level of a religion may be another story. Sometimes our leaps of faith are about matters that are so trivial no one would call those particular believes as part of a religion b/c they may NOT be part of any regular routine practice or deeply held. An atheist may deny that some of his/her practices are religious, yet many atheists, if interviewed (or interrogated) would end up disclosing that his/her logic only carries so much of the burden. Even within belief systems, some individuals are highly reflective and introspective, and others could NOT be bothered with such, unless you catch them on a "good" day in which they have been well fed, well rested and generally NOT preoccupied by real concerns, such as the volatility of BTC prices.

Quote from: windjc on May 12, 2014, 07:18:40 PM

I think these markets are close to dying in China. The volume is now anemic. It's drying up.

New fiat can't get in, so we can't rally. And there is not a lot of motivation to sell as people watch and wait.

But how can this not end badly? The exchanges have little to no way to make money now. So, the only "news" coming down the pipeline can be bad news. And when that hits, people will have a reason to sell.

It looks like we might be flat and then - boom - large capitulation event.

Could be days, weeks or months away though.

could be years away.

Quote from: octaft on May 12, 2014, 08:17:07 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 12, 2014, 08:13:46 PM

Quote from: octaft on May 12, 2014, 06:39:56 PM

Quote from: aminorex on May 12, 2014, 10:29:48 AM

saying that religion causes wars is like saying chemicals cause cancer. i have yet to see any living thing that did without chemicals, or any conscious mind that did without beliefs which cannot be concluded by evidence and logic alone.

it is difficult to take seriously anyone who attempts to preclude argument by declaring that disagreement is in itself disqualifying evidence - and probably not worth the effort to do so.

I think this is highly dependent on what you consider a "belief." If belief strictly means religion, I couldn't disagree more, agnostics being the clearest example. Or are we talking about beliefs like "I believe my wife isn't cheating on me." Even then, one could argue that you logically think that because you have a good relationship, or she is a very loyal person in general, or maybe you're just good at laying the pipe. I honestly have a hard time agreeing that no person can only have beliefs backed in evidence and logic.

I believe that Aminorex's point is valid, and there is NO person who does NOT make leaps of faith in his/her daily activities. Whether those leaps of faith rise to the level of a religion may be another story. Sometimes our leaps of faith are about matters that are so trivial no one would call those particular believes as part of a religion b/c they may NOT be part of any regular routine practice or deeply held. An atheist may deny that some of his/her practices are religious, yet many atheists, if interviewed (or interrogated) would end up disclosing that his/her logic only carries so much of the burden. Even within belief systems, some individuals are highly reflective and introspective, and others could NOT be bothered with such, unless you catch them on a "good" day in which they have been well fed, well rested and generally NOT preoccupied by real concerns, such as the volatility of BTC prices.

Atheism and agnosticism are not the same thing.

I never meant to imply that they were. I should have clarified... since u mentioned agnosticism and I mentioned atheism... In the end, my comment was intended as non-denominational.

Quote from: NotLambchop on May 13, 2014, 12:33:42 PM

Quote from: rpietila on May 13, 2014, 10:48:32 AM

...Until yesterday he probably thought that the yellow press articles were true! Shocking. Shocked

...

Yeah, the media could be somewhat unreliable at times...

How The Press Sees it:

Teh Reality:

Quote from: oda.krell on May 13, 2014, 10:07:19 AM

...
Challenge him his ideas, theories, charts, lack of ability to admit mistakes, etc. But I think his mental health, real estate and photo ops are off limits, unless its in good nature.

The d00d brought up that "castle" apropo of nothing, posting a shooped picture just to brag. Not even mentioning it was a shoop.

No one cared about his mental health until he flooded the forum with confessional attention whoring, painstakingly cataloging every detail of his lulzy predicament.

The second picture looks fake, too. A little reality would be nice.

I do agree that Rpietila seems to have a tendency for attention whoring and self-aggrandizing, that likely contributes to the level of wrath that he receives in this thread. Some of his posts are fairly clear and well organized, and other posts are like Huh

? what the fuck is he saying? Huh

Maybe if the BTC price could move a little bit (hopefully in the "right" direction), then some of us will feel less inclined to write about Rpietila, and his latest shenanigans or his seemingly purposeful evading of clarity or responsibility? Then if the price moves in thte "right" direction, Rpietila can come into this thread and tell us, "I told you so?" I certainly would like him to be correct in some of his fantasy land predictions... that way I would be able to invoke some SSS, at least my own variation of such.

Quote from: rpietila on May 13, 2014, 01:28:57 PM

Quote from: aminorex on May 13, 2014, 01:19:36 PM

Quote from: Asrael999 on May 13, 2014, 10:23:07 AM

a $30mm investment round by the looks of it?

think it through, people. sheesh.

Nice, but I would just have bought 75k more btc at this point.. (Hopefully Bitpay do)

Somebody has to invest in the bitcoin infrastructure, no? If we only have people buying BTC and NOT making bitcoin infrastructure investments, then what? Probably some stagnation.

Actually, some sources put total bitcoin infrastructure investments at less than $200 million. That less than $200 million number sounds quite low to me, but it does seems that the more investments that are made into BTC infrastructure, then the more publicity of BTC in order to promote such infrastructure investments.

I would imagine that the real exponential growth potential regarding BTC comes through various BTC infrastructure investments (and NOT merely the buying of coins), and even you personally seem to be propagating investment in the bitcoin infrastructure by marketing your hotel as a potential bitcoin hub. If you truly are holding in the neighborhood of 10k coins, it seems prudent for you to utilize some of your stash towards the expansion of the BTC infrastructure.

Quote from: nanobrain on May 13, 2014, 02:39:00 PM

Quote from: aminorex on May 13, 2014, 01:19:36 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on May 13, 2014, 10:27:01 AM

Quote from: Asrael999 on May 13, 2014, 10:23:07 AM

Is this Indexventures news the big announcement bitpay trailed at the weekend?

http://indexventures.com/news-room/blog/payment-without-borders-why-we%E2%80%99re-backing-bitpay

a $30mm investment round by the looks of it?

Sell the news !
While all news and publicity is good, this particular piece isnt too bullish as its just more money invested in a service thats in the business of converting BTC to Fiat.

which requires btc.

think it through, people. sheesh.

This was discussed some months back here - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=455141.msg6033147#msg6033147 - and the suggestion was it is NOT good news for BTC; in precis:

Quote

Buffet is correct, Bitcoin is just a facade for fiat. Bitpay and Peter Thiel have just put that future in concrete.

It was interesting after AnonyMint's lengthy and detailed rebuttal of why Bitpay is such great news for BTC that responses there came...none.

Or should I say...sheesh

Thanks for the link to that thread. I have NOT read very many of AnonyMint's posts, yet he seems to have quite a few decent ideas regarding the direction of bitcoin prices. Ultimately, it seems that he is suggesting that the growth curve for bitcoin is gradually declining and NOT linear nor exponential, including the taking into account various investments into BTC infrastructure.

I do NOT purport to understand much advance math, and I remain somewhat disinclined to believe that economics and markets which incorporate human behavior and politics are going to boil down to strict mathematical outcomes - even though historically, we can analyze the outcomes in terms of mathematical formulations.

For example, maybe we could see that historically bitcoin prices had periods of 100x average annual growth and 10x average annual growth and 2x annual growth (which growth rates may NOT be measured in exact yearly increments) and growth rates jump and spurt within these various periods to have an overall growth rate of 10x.. yet having a past average of 10x would NOT mean that we can rely upon 10x into the future.... even though 10X is possible, it seems unlikely to continue for very long into the future b/c it seems that much luck and alignment of stars would need to take place in order to sustain such a rate.

Possibly, projecting future BTC prices with 1.5X average annual growth rate expectations would be more realistic, and if the growth rate turns out to be higher than 50% per year, then the higher outcome(s) would be icing on the cake for investors. Accordingly, a 1.5X growth rate may look like this:

2014 = $400

2015 = $600

2016 = $900

2017 = $1,350

2018 = $1,975

2019 = $2,962.5

2020 = $4,443.75

Even though, this BTC price projection of 1.5X is NOT "to da moon," it would be a decent ROI, and would likely out perform a variety of other investments. I would be thrilled with such an outcome. Any thoughts?

Quote from: kireinaha on May 13, 2014, 09:41:53 PM

has the exponential growth trend broken? Maybe it's seriously time to re-access the future of bitcoin growth.

Go ahead, and give us your BTC price projection.

Quote from: kireinaha on May 14, 2014, 01:47:44 AM

Quote from: aminorex on May 14, 2014, 01:46:37 AM

Quote from: kireinaha on May 14, 2014, 01:43:08 AM

This is where all the smart money is going right now, not bitcoin itself.

Evidence? I need evidence of cleverness as well as evidence of money flow, to support that claim.

Richard Branson invested $30 million last week, no? He's pretty smart!

Yeah... we need some sources for these various conclusion regarding how much money is going where.. and whether the money is "smart" or NOT... or at least provide some detailed specifics and/or descriptions to support these kinds of conclusions.

You could add up a lot of infrastructure, and possibly get up to half a billion $$ that has been invested into bitcoin infrastructure, including ATMs, mining, exchanges, payment/remittance services, conferences, application development, consultations, etc.

Bitcoin has a market cap of nearly $6 billion, which is a reflection of the number of bitcoins multiplied by the market price per bitcoin. The BTC marketcap may be a little bit of an artificial number, but if there has been nearly a million bitcoins mined over the last 9 months or so, then those recently mined bitcoins have been absorbed into the bitcoin market cap... even at an average price per btc of $400 per bitcoin, that is $400 million.... and even if only 25% of them were sold, that is $100 million.

In the end, money seems to be going into both BTC infrastructure and BTC purchases. I am NOT about to break down the specifics b/c I do NOT know specifics.. and I did NOT make the assertion that there is some kind of direction that is "smarter" than another. It seems that if we get another BTC price spike or a further price decline (which is seeming less and less likely), there will be profits (and losses) both in the infrastructure investments and in bitcoin purchases, and like in life, FEW, if any, of the profits or losses will be distributed evenly... and the smartness of the investment strategy will vary based on luck, timing and whether any skills are brought to the venture(s).

Quote from: manfred on May 14, 2014, 09:00:07 AM

Quote from: Krabby on May 14, 2014, 08:42:17 AM

Quote from: T.Stuart on May 14, 2014, 08:27:23 AM

Quote from: kehtolo on May 14, 2014, 08:22:50 AM

IF it takes off all over the world.. then the Chinese government, despite their efforts won't be able to stop people.

Just to make my perhaps radical view clear, I would like nothing less than an immediate official ban on Bitcoin in China, so the taking off can happen much quicker. If the Chinese government doesn't double down on its efforts to stamp out Bitcoin in China immediately, then I think we may be in for more teething problems.

I think that is their plan.

yep, Chinese government hate bitcoin to its core. Chinese have been buying record amounts of physical gold the last few years. the idea is to make the yuan the default world currency fully backed by gold. Bitcoin does not fit into this equation so they will go to any lengths to contain the price as long as possible and stop it being used.
more well timed bad news to come, guaranteed.
containing the price for some time is all they will archive, over time even there mighty will succumb to bitcoin

I think that your analysis is faulty. The chinese government is putting on some kind of dog and pony show, and they likely are less than coherent in their feelings about bitcoin. They certainly do NOT like the dollar and the fact that they have so much money invested in the dollar - especially when the USA government (back in September /October 2013 and other times) has been screwing around with the shutting down of the government, and USA credit. Additionally, the chinese do NOT like the quantitative easing power of the USA and its dollar. Accordingly, bitcoin is another potential investment, similar to gold.

In the end, the Chinese government is likely torn about their feelings about bitcoin and whether bitcoin could be something in which value could be placed... other than the dollar. They are NOT likely going to get the Yuan as a world currency any time soon, but they may start to come around to bitcoin or possibly begin to acquire some of it on the side.

Quote from: damnek on May 14, 2014, 05:43:51 PM

Quote from: rpietila on May 14, 2014, 05:34:48 PM

I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.

Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:

Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.

Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:

2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
- another flashcrash to $2.

2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
- ?

(to be found out in 7 days.... Wink

)

I'd like to bet against your call, interested?

He doesn't bet anything straight forward. You would have to give him odds, and even then good luck with clarifying whatever it is that the bet is supposed to be. Also, he will NOT bet for any less than 50BTC to make it worth his time. Cheesy

Quote from: rpietila on May 14, 2014, 06:27:05 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 14, 2014, 05:58:02 PM

Quote from: damnek on May 14, 2014, 05:43:51 PM

Quote from: rpietila on May 14, 2014, 05:34:48 PM

I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.

Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:

Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.

Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:

2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
- another flashcrash to $2.

2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
- ?

(to be found out in 7 days.... Wink

)

I'd like to bet against your call, interested?

He doesn't bet anything straight forward. You would have to give him odds, and even then good luck with clarifying whatever it is that the bet is supposed to be. Also, he will NOT bet for any less than 50BTC to make it worth his time. Cheesy

~~The probability that the price would go that low inside 7 days has historically (2013-) been 7.2%. If I make such a call, I naturally have to give you better odds. How about double (14% == 7:1)?~~

Never mind. I don't have time for this.

Also this is getting stupid. I expected a little bit interest at least.

This chart shows that the double bottom turns to an uptrend that will take us to the price level prevalent before the first flashcrash (in 2014's case 650, prior to dipping to 400 in 2014-2-25). This will happen slowly but steadily during 7 weeks.

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

WOW!!! your response is much more straight forward than I expected.

In essence, you are predicting a 7.2% chance that within the next 7 days BTC prices will go to $300-$350.

Your original statement made it seem like you were predicting more likely than NOT that we were going to see BTC prices in the $300-$350 range in the next 7 days......anyhow, I feel better now that I realize the odds are less than 1/10. Accordingly, I am NOT going to sell any BTC on those kinds of odds. Im gonna HODL, HODL, HODL.

Quote from: bigdave on May 14, 2014, 06:52:28 PM

What about the "fall out" that is supposed to happen May 15 once the banks stop bitcoin transactions? Technically it is already May 15 in China.

Windjc and BillyJoelAllen have a bet that is ending on May 15, too, and it looks like BJA is gonna be the winner, no?

Quote from: MNDan on May 14, 2014, 06:55:26 PM

Quote from: gotmilk_ on May 14, 2014, 06:45:35 PM

http://www.coindesk.com/ebay-ceo-actively-considering-bitcoin-integration/

On time Grin

New rally around the corner!

Is this really a good thing? I'm guessing that if PayPal starts accepting Bitcoins, they will STILL take their 3% from the seller. The dream of Bitcoin is that we don't NEED PayPal anymore.

I believe that we see several of examples of NEW bitcoin infrastructure companies that charge relatively higher fees that are in line with their business model and traditional banking fees (ATMs, square up, coinbase, gyft, zapo, etc). These fees are NOT surprising, yet it seems that these fees will likely decrease with the passage of time b/c as you suggested, profits can still be made with a much lesser fees... which will likely continue to cause competition to come into the space.

New ventures that are tied to traditional fiat institutions are going to attempt to milk profits out of the system - especially when they are filling otherwise unfulfilled needs.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 14, 2014, 09:08:39 PM

Quote from: ZephramC on May 14, 2014, 07:27:24 PM

I own more BTC than 99.9% of the world population combined. Of course I am feeling lucky!

Well, I am still doubling my BTC holdings every day since December. Beat that! Wink

That's impossible if you started out with any satoshis. Even starting with 1 satoshi, after one month, you would have more than 1 BTC. After 2 months, you would have more than 100million bitcoins, which is far more than the supply ever to be made, unless you were dealing with gox coins, which are magical. The magic of compounding interest is truly amazing!!!!

Quote from: shmadz on May 15, 2014, 02:22:46 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 15, 2014, 01:23:18 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 14, 2014, 09:08:39 PM

Quote from: ZephramC on May 14, 2014, 07:27:24 PM

I own more BTC than 99.9% of the world population combined. Of course I am feeling lucky!

Well, I am still doubling my BTC holdings every day since December. Beat that! Wink

That's impossible if you started out with any satoshis. Even starting with 1 satoshi, after one month, you would have more than 1 BTC. After 2 months, you would have more than 100million bitcoins, which is far more than the supply ever to be made, unless you were dealing with gox coins, which are magical. The magic of compounding interest is truly amazing!!!!

Thanks Jay, as soon as I saw that post I was gonna try to do the math to call him out on his absolute bullshit, but then I realized it wasn't worth my time.

also thanks for using NOT one annoying quirk in that entire post.

Grin

Quote from: windjc on May 15, 2014, 07:48:33 AM

Quote from: blatchcorn on May 15, 2014, 06:47:01 AM

>$500 is possible today

Yep. So is <$400.

Probably stay in the same tight range between 430-460 though.

Hasn't your bet with BJA run its course? Accordingly, someone needs to pay up, no? Amazing that the price has hardly moved during the last few weeks.

Quote from: UglyTroll on May 15, 2014, 04:27:24 PM

Mt. Gox was the most promising exchange ever Grin

YES!!!!! And, it is on its way back!!!! Wink

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 15, 2014, 10:33:26 PM

Quote from: Asrael999 on May 15, 2014, 12:14:16 PM

It's Thursday, is this just the Bitcoin Investment Trust on its weekly shopping spree?

Yeah, this time they bought ~341 BTC.

Actually, I am not sure if it is bullish - they keep buying but the price stays the same. Think what would happen if they would stop buying - or start selling.

I wouldn't think too much about it... hehehe.

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 15, 2014, 10:54:50 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 15, 2014, 10:41:03 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 15, 2014, 10:33:26 PM

Quote from: Asrael999 on May 15, 2014, 12:14:16 PM

It's Thursday, is this just the Bitcoin Investment Trust on its weekly shopping spree?

Yeah, this time they bought ~341 BTC.

Actually, I am not sure if it is bullish - they keep buying but the price stays the same. Think what would happen if they would stop buying - or start selling.

I wouldn't think too much about it... hehehe.

Why? They sort of have a "ticking bomb" design - you are only allowed to sell after holding for 6 months. So they may have many investor who bought high and want out, but they have to wait some time, until this 6 months will pass.

You have been reading too many of Jorge's posts. Cheesy

What I mean is that the potential negative scenario that you are describing is NOT as highly likely as you are making it out to be.

In this regard, if an investment fund is attempting to appeal to institutional investors or larger investors with a longer time horizon, the larger investors know the drill and they understand the terms of the agreement in that the investment is longer term (and NOT trading), and the investor understands the need to stick with the minimum time-period whether good or bad, and hopefully institutional investors and investment funds are sufficiently diversified in order to have varying performance of different assets that are contained within their portfolio.

I am of the belief that there are trade offs, and different kinds of investments appeal to different kinds of investors. Even though some kinds of investments may NOT be suitable for a day trader, institutional investors are usually long term... or at least longer term in their choices, and 6 months is NOT a burdensome commitment for an institutional investor.

Quote from: lemonte on May 15, 2014, 11:05:43 PM

Quote from: herzmeister on May 15, 2014, 10:36:40 PM

http://www.coindesk.com/bitpay-toshiba-partnership-bitcoin-6000-merchants/

so?

We are hearing a lot more about existing products integrating with Bitcoin, pretty exciting! All we need now is for a big company who use this type of technology to accept Bitcoin, discuss the benefits/ sales from BTC in the press and there'll be no stopping the rocket.

I agree and additionally, it will be good when the big companies are providing opportunities for employees to receive all or part of their salaries in bitcoin and to be paying various venders in bitcoin.

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 16, 2014, 02:39:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 15, 2014, 11:45:07 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 15, 2014, 10:54:50 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 15, 2014, 10:41:03 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 15, 2014, 10:33:26 PM

Quote from: Asrael999 on May 15, 2014, 12:14:16 PM

It's Thursday, is this just the Bitcoin Investment Trust on its weekly shopping spree?

Yeah, this time they bought ~341 BTC.

Actually, I am not sure if it is bullish - they keep buying but the price stays the same. Think what would happen if they would stop buying - or start selling.

I wouldn't think too much about it... hehehe.

Why? They sort of have a "ticking bomb" design - you are only allowed to sell after holding for 6 months. So they may have many investor who bought high and want out, but they have to wait some time, until this 6 months will pass.

You have been reading too many of Jorge's posts. Cheesy

What I mean is that the potential negative scenario that you are describing is NOT as highly likely as you are making it out to be.

In this regard, if an investment fund is attempting to appeal to institutional investors or larger investors with a longer time horizon, the larger investors know the drill and they understand the terms of the agreement in that the investment is longer term (and NOT trading), and the investor understands the need to stick with the minimum time-period whether good or bad, and hopefully institutional investors and investment funds are sufficiently diversified in order to have varying performance of different assets that are contained within their portfolio.

I am of the belief that there are trade offs, and different kinds of investments appeal to different kinds of investors. Even though some kinds of investments may NOT be suitable for a day trader, institutional investors are usually long term... or at least longer term in their choices, and 6 months is NOT a burdensome commitment for an institutional investor.

I agree that institutional investors act very differently than most individual investors or people around here. But Second Market is not for institutional investors, it is for individual folks, just a bit more wealthy than average. The "first 6 month selling ban" is not a guideline, it is simply prohibited. Meaning that Second Market believed their investor would be prone to panic selling, just as the regular folks. So far, their have pretty bad record of buying high, that is why I believe they would be also prone to selling low. Not Barry fault at all, he has on influence on these decision other than this 6 months selling ban.

Btw, you sound a bit if you believe I am trying to sell some agenda. I am just expressing my views, like anybody else on this forum. I am neither long or short in bit coin, and actually decided not to buy it, so I would not gain whatever happens with the price.

I may have been a little accusatory in my tone; however, I did NOT mean anything personal. I was merely attempting to make the point that businesses may structure themselves in various ways in order to attract a certain kind of clientele. Whether that structure/approach is a good business strategy or NOT, we cannot always be sure. I suppose that if I was accusing you of anything, then the accusation would be that you seemed to have been, in my thinking, too critical of Second Market's business strategy, and I personally, do NOT see their business strategy as a problem, unless they were engaging in some kind of trickery (which does NOT seem to be the case). In essence, whether Second Market is attempting to appeal to institutional investors or regular individuals, you seem to be conceding that they are attempting to appeal to longer term investors rather than day traders. In my thinking, absent other variations, the targeting of longer term investors could be a good marketing strategy for second market, as a business, and it can be good for bitcoin to have various options in the kinds of investments that you can make (depending upon whether you are willing and/or able to meet their conditions).

In the end, it seems that we do NOT really disagree, and we are phrasing matters a little bit differently. In the end, I learned from your responses. Wink

Quote from: y3804 on May 16, 2014, 03:14:07 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 16, 2014, 03:03:09 AM

Quote from: y3804 on May 16, 2014, 03:00:42 AM

Why the dump on Huobi? Can't find anything about it. Help me

Why not? I mean, nobody is asking "why the pump?", why do we need a special reason for the dump? Just basic laws of demand and supply - apparently not enough buyers atm at Huobi to support the current price. Knowing Huobi, 15 mins from now it can change dramatically again Wink

Maybe, but looking at the charts it was a significant dump. It's not common whale behavior and definitely not a smart move. Why would he exit with a market sell? There are some rumors about bad news in the upcoming weekend, but I honestly can't find anything else. Until I find more information I'll assume that he dumped... because he wanted to dump, right

He may be dumping b/c he is hoping for a reaction from other exchanges, and when he does NOT get very much of a reaction, then he may decide to adjust his BTC buy/sell/hodl strategy and rethink the responsiveness of the rest of the BTC market to chinese exchanges. It may be the case that if the various chinese exchanges have become less liquid, the those chinese exchanges are going to have to adjust BTC prices downward somewhat b/c of that illiquitity? If in the future, the chinese exchanges return to a more liquid status, then BTC prices can be more closely aligned with other exchanges. In other words, the chinese exchanges may be coming to learn that their status has been downgraded and the BTC price market is finding a new comfortable downgraded equilibrium. 5-10% downgrade?

Quote from: adamstgBit on May 16, 2014, 03:48:52 AM

Quote from: shmadz on May 16, 2014, 03:30:37 AM

Quote from: KFR on May 16, 2014, 03:15:53 AM

Chinese miners still gotta sell.

asicminer is in china, right?

I don't hear much about them anymore...

anyways, I gotta get some sleep, so at the risk of being spammy I'll drop this link one more time.

http://youtu.be/XcGh1Dex4Yo?t=1h14m39s

good night now!

the price of bitcoin is highly correlated to the number of post in this thread, spam away Cheesy

Even when we are writing about bullshit politics, such as the role of government in the "new" bitcoin world? versus the role of libertarianism ? versus the role of anarchy? versus the role of socialism? And other irrelevant matters that we do NOT really agree or know anything about? Cheesy

for example ripple ? Cheesy

Quote from: Mythul on May 16, 2014, 04:27:49 AM

Lots of good news everyday. The next bull run will be out of this world !

Please define: "out of this world!"

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 16, 2014, 06:09:34 AM

Quote from: YipYip on May 16, 2014, 05:59:27 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 16, 2014, 05:54:04 AM

Quote from: YipYip on May 16, 2014, 05:49:21 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 16, 2014, 05:28:02 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 16, 2014, 05:25:54 AM

Quote from: MahaRamana on May 16, 2014, 05:22:09 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 16, 2014, 05:12:11 AM

at current prices risk/reward ratio for bit coin is not that great, market is practically frozen so trading is almost impossible, so they are gradually moving out to other investments.

I don't see how someone rational can come to that conclusion.
Risk/reward ratio not that great ?

People who evaluate the risk/reward ratio of bitcoin as poor really deserve to sell now, more or less at the bottom.
I don't think there is any investment that has a better risk/reward ratio - unless you are extremely risk averse.

LOL, it does seem that I am not only "irrational" person here - somehow we do not see many people buying this "best investment ever". I am not selling either, I have never owned a bit coin. I am just sharing how it looks like form my perspective as someone who was interested in investing in bit coin since beginning of this year but decided recently to move on.

EDIT: I am not risk averse at all - I have been trading penny stocks and options at college already Wink

Bitcoin has been best investment ever early on, but at this point in time I see better options. We will see in a couple of years who was right.

You really have no idea do you

"Couple of Years" I loled

Also what OTHER OPPORTUNITIES have the potential to give you a 1000% return that are not on late night shoppiung channel

"The exciting world of Ostrich Farms"
"Binary trading"

Enter your sugestion here ___________ ?

Well, you are apparently one of the believers that if the price raised 10 times last year, it will most likely raise 10 times this year and next. I do not believe in exponential growth line - just normal markets bull and bear cycles. Now I guess I will be asked again to leave this discussion forum that sometimes resembles more a support group Wink

.

Ah grass hopper I have been through 3 of these not 1 like you youngsters have as THEIR view of a THING

It has had 100000% growth since inception

On LTC I have personally made 10x growth 3 times I have turned 4c into $39 & cashed out

You seem to not see the big picture of what this is ..I have been working building banking and billing systems in the finance sector for many many years and your dont understand the disruptive impact of what crypto is

You are going to be kicking yourself as to an oppurtunity lost but I am keen to get your views quoted for prosperity so we can all have a laugh and a giggle later down the track Cheesy

First of all, my opinion is not on bitcoin, strictly on its price. Second, I agree that crypto will revolutionize the finances. Just decided not to buy bitcoin atm, is all Wink

.

BTW, I am not trying to write some manifesto on my personal investing philosophy. Somebody asked why the price falling without any bad news. I tried to answer as a representative of people having money put aside for high risk investments and being able to buy btc instantly, but nevertheless not buying them atm.

WTF?

I had been attempting to give you the benefit of the doubt in my various responses to you, and now you are talking like a fool. I do NOT usually like to preach to anyone, but your recent responses seem to merit some preaching.

If you are prepared to make various investments into potentially risky asset classes, then do that with bitcoin - rather than sitting on the sidelines and getting caught up by the price... fuck the price..

This bitcoin matter is NOT a religion, so get that out of your head.. b/c if you believe that people who are investing in BTC are lured in to some kind of religious perspective, you are deluded and failing to see reality and oversimplifying based on FUD.

If you have been learning about bitcoin in recent months and seriously considering bitcoin as a potential investment (rather than trolling us like some fool, like Jorge, and maybe there are a few others that fit into that category), then you should realize that you do NOT have to buy a whole bitcoin. Buy a fucking fraction of a bitcoin, such as .1BTC or some other level that is comfortable for you. If you are seriously considering the relative value of bitcoin as compared with other investments, such as penny stocks, you should at least recognize that you will learn more about bitcoin by going through the process of putting a little skin into the game and buying some small amount. If you believe that .1BTC is too much for you and you believe the price could drop more, then buy .05BTC or some smaller amount and wait it out. Maybe you will be correct and the price will drop. On the other hand, the odds seem to be that the price is NOT dropping much more and it is more likely to go up from here within the next few hours or months (we cannot know exactly when, but it seems more likely to go up rather than to go down).

In sum, I am suggesting in a nice way that you just get involved a little bit more than you are, rather than seeming to preach and judge us from some sideline idiotic perspective. The farce and idiocy of Jorge and his ilk is to invest so much time into learning about bitcoin, and NOT to put a little bit of skin into the game based on some high falutin perspective that you are above bitcoin.

Quote from: rpietila on May 16, 2014, 06:11:50 AM

Quote from: MahaRamana on May 16, 2014, 05:22:09 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 16, 2014, 05:12:11 AM

at current prices risk/reward ratio for bit coin is not that great, market is practically frozen so trading is almost impossible, so they are gradually moving out to other investments.

I don't see how someone rational can come to that conclusion.
Risk/reward ratio not that great ?

People who evaluate the risk/reward ratio of bitcoin as poor really deserve to sell now, more or less at the bottom.
I don't think there is any investment that has a better risk/reward ratio - unless you are extremely risk averse.

It is funny how blind people are. What exactly has better risk/reward? There is none.

Bitcoin has a small risk of going to zero, perhaps 3% annualized. That is about the same as fiat cash, or stocks, so we are talking about a net zero risk.

Bitcoin's volatility is high, but the historical return is still so good that 60% of every 30-day periods are positive and in Bitcoin's history there has not been a negative year, for example. No matter which investment length period you take, and compare bitcoin with anything else, they come out a winner. So the volatility is not a problem - bitcoins have been the least risk investment on the planet for the last 5 years, because they have never returned a loss after 2 years which all the others have.

The return is very good, about 1000% per year, which is higher than the returns of competing investments in the expected range of -5%...10% of returns.

Currently there are about a million Bitcoin holders, which is so small that even after 10x growth from here, we are still in "innovators" and not even "early adopters" category. Furthermore, less than 100,000 people actually use Bitcoin. The potential for growth is staggering.

The timing for investment, as measured by any growth trendline, is excellent right now, as the overshoot of the previous bubble has been purged, yet the infrastructure is growing, and the new wave of investors (in 10s of millions) is just waiting for the signal to enter.

NOW that response is priceless - even though a bit more bullish than the average bull, but still, priceless - and I am NOT talking about religion... he h ehe Cheesy

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 16, 2014, 06:12:57 AM

Quote from: octaft on May 16, 2014, 06:00:45 AM

Don't you know that because price went from 10 to 1000, that it will go from 400 to 40000 just as easily?

And from 40,000 to 4,000,000 just as easily? Yeah, it is exactly the part I am not "getting". Perhaps because I am a mathematician and vaguely remember from school that amount of money in the Universe is finite Wink

. But you are just trolling, right?

You do NOT have to believe in 10X exponential growth to recognize that BTC is a good investment. Just stick with 6% annual growth, and you will more than likely be satisfied with BTC's returns over the next few years b/c I am quite confident that BTC prices are going to appreciate more than 6% per year in the next few years.

Quote from: rpietila on May 16, 2014, 06:16:04 AM

No. I think that these "betting proposals" are used against me when I present an inconvenient truth, in an attempt to derail. Chew that first

Nancy Reagan said that. "just say no." Cheesy

Quote from: 600watt on May 16, 2014, 07:53:20 AM

has there ever been an asset where almost every participant sooner or later turns into a walking pr-machine in the same way bitcoin does it for its community members ? one million bitcoin holders all telling it to grandma & friends; all those developers working on new layers (how many are there - thousands ?) all the vc money pouring in the last 12 months, despite of one of the longest downtrends in btc history.
almost every central bank in the world has issued statements, tons of government agencies are watching it, struggling for regulation. an asset with this tiny tiny market cap of just 5 billion is constantly in the headlines, causing raised eyebrows throughout the governments/banks/investment funds/venture capital firms of the entire planet - has there ever been anything like that before ?

just sit back for a moment and grasp what has been achieved so far. a disruptive technology combined with an uncounted number enthusiasts/nutters stampeding through the forums, choo choo ing on every hick-up dwarfing the sheer cheering potential of even the goldbugs...

p2p, decentralized, money, internet, global AND already beating every fucking other asset that exists. 5 billion is dust compared to the figures of global trade, financial assets/investments, internet trade, etc, etc - literally less than a some flies shit in a zoo - but still you have central banks of G8 (oh wait - it is G 7 now Roll Eyes

) members coming out with statements like this:

Quote

As they do with platform-based digital currencies, central
banks are studying and closely monitoring decentralized digital
currencies such as Bitcoin. There could be potential risks to
overall ﬁnancial stability if Bitcoin became a signiﬁ cant means
of payment and the Bitcoin system remained unstable

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/boc-review-spring14-fung.pdf

in my opinion even the bears play an important role in delivering the bitcoin evangelium to the potential masses: if all would be only cheering, plenty of new potential investors (even small scale) wouldn´t take this community serious. it is the critical bears talk who is appealing to those (before they get sucked in )

bitcoin is on a winning streak. even today at 445...

Thank you, bears!!!!!!!!!! Cry

Sorry. I am getting emotional. Cry

Quote from: octaft on May 16, 2014, 09:17:46 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 16, 2014, 06:53:09 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 16, 2014, 06:09:34 AM

First of all, my opinion is not on bitcoin, strictly on its price. Second, I agree that crypto will revolutionize the finances. Just decided not to buy bitcoin atm, is all Wink

.

BTW, I am not trying to write some manifesto on my personal investing philosophy. Somebody asked why the price falling without any bad news. I tried to answer as a representative of people having money put aside for high risk investments and being able to buy btc instantly, but nevertheless not buying them atm.

WTF?

I had been attempting to give you the benefit of the doubt in my various responses to you, and now you are talking like a fool. I do NOT usually like to preach to anyone, but your recent responses seem to merit some preaching.

If you are prepared to make various investments into potentially risky asset classes, then do that with bitcoin - rather than sitting on the sidelines and getting caught up by the price... fuck the price..

This bitcoin matter is NOT a religion, so get that out of your head.. b/c if you believe that people who are investing in BTC are lured in to some kind of religious perspective, you are deluded and failing to see reality and oversimplifying based on FUD.

If you have been learning about bitcoin in recent months and seriously considering bitcoin as a potential investment (rather than trolling us like some fool, like Jorge, and maybe there are a few others that fit into that category), then you should realize that you do NOT have to buy a whole bitcoin. Buy a fucking fraction of a bitcoin, such as .1BTC or some other level that is comfortable for you. If you are seriously considering the relative value of bitcoin as compared with other investments, such as penny stocks, you should at least recognize that you will learn more about bitcoin by going through the process of putting a little skin into the game and buying some small amount. If you believe that .1BTC is too much for you and you believe the price could drop more, then buy .05BTC or some smaller amount and wait it out. Maybe you will be correct and the price will drop. On the other hand, the odds seem to be that the price is NOT dropping much more and it is more likely to go up from here within the next few hours or months (we cannot know exactly when, but it seems more likely to go up rather than to go down).

In sum, I am suggesting in a nice way that you just get involved a little bit more than you are, rather than seeming to preach and judge us from some sideline idiotic perspective. The farce and idiocy of Jorge and his ilk is to invest so much time into learning about bitcoin, and NOT to put a little bit of skin into the game based on some high falutin perspective that you are above bitcoin.

There's no reason to call him names just because he presented his opinion, relatively innocently, I might add.

BTW Jorge imo is not trolling. He may turn out to be horribly wrong, but I don't think he is a fool, and I think he honestly believes what he says here. He has a couple trolling posts, but he makes them (I believe purposefully) quite obvious.

It seems that I explained my reasons for my various explicatives which I believe are justified in order to make my point(s). Possibly, in the end, we just view matters differently regarding whether different words would have made the point(s) better.

Quote from: p0peji on May 16, 2014, 11:33:56 AM

Another thing that annoys me is that when I write "Inevitable crash" I get 3 responses within a minute stating that I am pulling predictions out of my ass. While in the meantime if for example Chessnut predicts "CCMF" with his EW analysis (which he hasnt the slightest idea about), people are already like "CCMF" etc.

b/c ultimately, chestnut is correct, even if he is NOT correct about the timing... and/or his TAs may be less than ideal, he is correct about the direction

Quote from: xalex on May 16, 2014, 12:48:41 PM

According to my data, the number of new users learning about Bitcoin is still decreasing.

(This is an index number based on statistics from websites/webpages explaining about bitcoin.)

Today's index (not plotted here but on hourly chart) looks like it's going to be a new yearly low for a Friday.

why does your "chart" only go back until January 2014? That is a bit selective of a rendition of the situation, isn't it?

Quote from: p0peji on May 16, 2014, 12:55:39 PM

Quote from: TERA on May 16, 2014, 12:52:41 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on May 16, 2014, 12:46:16 PM

Quote from: TERA on May 16, 2014, 12:38:51 PM

Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.

No it was based on all your other posts. This post was actually bullish. That is what made me take note. Someone, who thus far was predicting the end of the world as we know it, switching to an (exponential) uptrend. I thought that was worthy to be mentioned Wink

Predicting that a short term dip will occur but then rebound all the way back up and then reach new highs is 'the end of the world'. #bitcointhings

Quote from: niothor on May 16, 2014, 12:50:41 PM

Quote from: TERA on May 16, 2014, 12:38:51 PM

Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.

And you just realized that ?

I've never been called 'permabear' before. That is supposed to be people who don't think that btc will ever rise again and is a bad long term investment. People like Fonzie.

The problem here is that you are talking to bitcoiners, who I start to believe are the same people who would think that MLM is the next best thing and is going to make them rich.

why dont you say how you really feel? Cheesy

My understanding is that MLM is another way of saying that you think that bitcoin is a pyramid scheme and believers do NOT realize that bitcoin is a pyramid scheme. Accordingly, you are of the belief that bitcoin bulls are delusional. It seems too premature to come to any kind of conclusion that bitcoin bulls are delusional - maybe if the bitcoin price remains more or less in the sub $500 range for the next approximately 18 months, I may begin to agree with conclusions that bitcoin bulls are delusional... otherwise... your assertion seems to be premature... and the delusional ones seem to be the bears... especially any bear that happens to be informed about bitcoin.. if they believe that the price is going to remain below $500 or even to plummet into the below $266 arena.. they seem to be much more delusional than the bulls... b/c the odds are much greater that btc prices are going up from here rather than down... especially, if we project into the next 3 months or longer

Quote from: niothor on May 17, 2014, 10:43:06 AM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on May 17, 2014, 10:12:28 AM

Quote from: niothor on May 17, 2014, 10:02:02 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 17, 2014, 09:33:47 AM

It is interesting to observe the extremely diverse range of coexisting opinions on the price here. One group of posters will be absolutely confident that we are inevitably seeing $5000 by the summer, and the next group of posters will have lost all faith and not believe that it will even recover from this crash and hold value at all.

And you're part of which group? Wink

Luckily, there is a middle ground.

I doubt he's part of this one

.

I frequently wonder about what purpose(s) is(are) served by misstating basic facts. The description here is that people who participate in this thread are fanatics.. they believe one extreme or another - however, most people would self-describe as being reasonable to take into account information before deciding what to do.

That self-description is mostly true - even though some people will panic at various points. My point is that we are NOT a bunch of extremists, here. So that is spreading FUD.

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 17, 2014, 03:02:46 PM

Quote from: niothor on May 17, 2014, 02:27:03 PM

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 17, 2014, 02:25:03 PM

Yes I was referring to btc price. If bulls don't seize opportunities when they arise, then surely price will go down. The good news doesn't seem to move the market, but I'm fairly sure that bad news will.

But the term "all the way" usually means 0 level.Do you really think we are going all the way down?
Might have to label you a permabear also

.

No I'm not that bearish

I have been bearish since I started trading bitcoin. Looking back I have not had many reasons not to be bearish

When did you start trading bitcoin?

And did you come to bitcoin b/c of its volatility?

Quote from: shmadz on May 17, 2014, 03:25:13 PM

Quote from: RandomPedestrianN9 on May 17, 2014, 03:08:32 PM

What are the 5 last things you paid for with BTC (without converting it to USD before the deal was done) and how long ago were these purchases made?

This is a good question, but could you clarify the bit about the conversion part?

do you mean that I personally had to convert to fiat? or that I used a bitpay like service and effectively I paid in bitcoin and the vendor received fiat?

cuz I've done tons of bitpay like purchases, where I don't have to convert shit.

but if you're talking about a transaction where I pay bitcoin directly to the vendor and the vendor actually accepts bitcoin and doesn't immediately convert to fiat?

I can only think of 2 scenarios where that has occurred.

- when I bought something from someone on this forum.
- when I tipped someone from this forum because they freely gave me advice or information that I directly profited from.

and that's about it/

*added a bit of ranting - viewer discretion is advised*

This is why I think that all this regulation talk is complete bullshit. They should first prove that they can effectively regulate their own failing currency before they go ahead and fuck up ours.

Shmadz: You are changing the question. All that matters is what you did. If you bought with bitcoin, then you have accomplished an affirmative response to the question. It does NOT matter what the receiver of your bitcoin did, and you may NOT even know what they did - whether they converted the BTC to fiat or NOT.

Quote from: niothor on May 17, 2014, 05:38:48 PM

Quote from: gentlemand on May 17, 2014, 05:26:41 PM

Looks like people are using their BTC for alt frenzies. Darkcoin has had higher volume on Mintpal alone.

Higher volume than what?
As long as it's only traded against btc there , i doubt it can have "higher" volume.

If the coinmarket cap is any indicator of volume, it appears that dark coin has achieved about half the volume of trading volume of BTC in the last 24 hours - even though the actual market cap of darkcoin is more than 200X smaller than BTC. Does NOT mean that Darkcoin is more successful than BTC, just that there may be a lot of volatility with darkcoin, and money to be made.. and likely easier to manipulate prices by smaller players.

Quote from: niothor on May 17, 2014, 06:00:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 17, 2014, 05:57:04 PM

Quote from: niothor on May 17, 2014, 05:38:48 PM

Quote from: gentlemand on May 17, 2014, 05:26:41 PM

Looks like people are using their BTC for alt frenzies. Darkcoin has had higher volume on Mintpal alone.

Higher volume than what?
As long as it's only traded against btc there , i doubt it can have "higher" volume.

If the coinmarket cap is any indicator of volume, it appears that dark coin has achieved about half the volume of trading volume of BTC in the last 24 hours - even though the actual market cap of darkcoin is more than 200X smaller than BTC. Does NOT mean that Darkcoin is more successful than BTC, just that there may be a lot of volatility with darkcoin, and money to be made.. and likely easier to manipulate prices by smaller players.

The volume of btc is calculated only from the usd/btc pair.
It doesn't include ltc/btc , bc/btc

So , that indicator is not that accurate from my point of view.

If true, that is a pretty big deal, especially with bitcoin b/c there are a lot of conversions going on with bitcoin.

Also, if true, then similar inaccuracies are reflected in the other cryptos, too... even though bitcoin remains the most common conversion crypto.

Does anyone know about a better one-stop shopping spot to obtain the measurement for the totality of bitcoin volume?

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 17, 2014, 11:51:17 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 17, 2014, 05:32:34 PM

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 17, 2014, 03:02:46 PM

Quote from: niothor on May 17, 2014, 02:27:03 PM

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 17, 2014, 02:25:03 PM

Yes I was referring to btc price. If bulls don't seize opportunities when they arise, then surely price will go down. The good news doesn't seem to move the market, but I'm fairly sure that bad news will.

But the term "all the way" usually means 0 level.Do you really think we are going all the way down?
Might have to label you a permabear also

.

No I'm not that bearish

I have been bearish since I started trading bitcoin. Looking back I have not had many reasons not to be bearish

When did you start trading bitcoin?

And did you come to bitcoin b/c of its volatility?

I got involved late February. I heard about Bitcoin a long time before that, but even though I was intrigued I never really took the time to find out more about it. In February I was really into sentiment analysis using NLP (natural language processing) and I was considering writing a program for analyzing Bitcoin trader sentiment. I quickly came to the conclusion that it would be very hard to get anything meaningful from that (just look at this forum

), so I scrapped that project. But while I was investigating I got more interested in trading. After reading a book on the subject and studying the moves I decided to get more involved. The high volatility is definitely a plus, but also stressful at times. I'm currently swing trading, but I'm also looking for a position to go long, so that I can focus more on other projects. If Bitcoin get's into a longer period with low volatility I might take a break from trading or I might get into alts.

Each of us have our different reasons and our different time-lines for getting into BTC. I understand the sentiment about getting involved while BTC values are on a downtrend; however, I have been into BTC and its downtrend longer than you, since I got started in late November 2013. I have considered myself to be a BTC long term investor. So far, I have NOT considered my self a trader and very little have I attempted to profit from trading.

Certainly the alts have seemed to have more volatility than BTC, and accordingly more potential for profits or losses based on such volatility - yet trading seems to be a losing prospect for anyone except for the big players or bots or those who have learned certain strategies to account for the probably manipulation that takes place with the various cryptos.

In spite of my reservations regarding trading, I do expect to use some of my profits for trading, once my BTC portfolio is back into the black.... It has been a while since my BTC portfolio has been in the black, so it may be a little while before I am trading... he he he... Nonetheless, I am fairly optimistic that we are going to be witnessing some upward price mobility in the coming months - yet, even if we do NOT witness such, I will likely keep HODLin and buying, absent significant news that would negatively affect BTC fundamentals.

Quote from: Davyd05 on May 18, 2014, 12:34:22 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 18, 2014, 12:32:25 AM

There are 5000+ BTC for sale on Huobi for 2900 CNY or less, 120 CNY (20$) above the spread.

On the other hand, the bid side below 2760 is hidden, apparently because there are zillions of tiny bids between 2770 and 2775 CNY (and only in that range). Could it be on purpose? If truth is being hidden, it must be ugly...

Jorge your fear mongering is cute.

Some call it "cute," and others call it "whacky." Cheesy

Quote from: Davyd05 on May 18, 2014, 01:56:33 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 18, 2014, 01:09:07 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on May 18, 2014, 12:34:22 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 18, 2014, 12:32:25 AM

There are 5000+ BTC for sale on Huobi for 2900 CNY or less, 120 CNY (20$) above the spread.

On the other hand, the bid side below 2760 is hidden, apparently because there are zillions of tiny bids between 2770 and 2775 CNY (and only in that range). Could it be on purpose? If truth is being hidden, it must be ugly...

Jorge your fear mongering is cute.

Some call it "cute," and others call it "whacky." Cheesy

I was pretty much okay with the content, till the bolded area. Where he goes all X-Files on us.

That is to say it could be just as easily argued that someone could be hiding support bids in case of a flash crash on the low volume at Huobi...we can bicker all we want and speculate...but when we start sounding like late night radio hosts it just becomes cheap and ugly.

I know it would be argued that Jorge is voicing this opinion to perhaps save someone from making bad investments but it seem more like fear mongering to scare some noobs to being afraid of China that they sell at or near a bottom.

What you call "fear mongering" Jorge calls "prudence mongering" and I call "wacky mongering."

In the end, Dave05, I agree with you, and both of us may be giving too much dignity to Jorge by responding to what seems to be his disingenuous "contributions" that really serve to misinform and emphasize tangential and speculative issues. Yes, this is a speculative thread, but his investment seems questionable, at best - to supposedly save us from ourselves. In other words, buy a bitcoin, Jorge, to bring some credibility to your participation. Angry

Quote from: aminorex on May 18, 2014, 02:38:56 AM

Quote from: RandomPedestrianN9 on May 17, 2014, 03:08:32 PM

What are the 5 last things you paid for with BTC (without converting it to USD before the deal was done) and how long ago were these purchases made?

You're going to get deafening silence, if anybody has an ounce of sense in them.

Why's that? We are just sharing informal information. I have NOT made substantial purchases with bitcoin, yet hopefully, the recent legislation will change bitcoin, in the usa from its current treatment as a commodity to the status of a foreign currency, for the purposes of taxes....

Quote from: xulescu on May 18, 2014, 03:55:29 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 18, 2014, 03:42:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 18, 2014, 03:21:23 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on May 18, 2014, 01:56:33 AM

I know it would be argued that Jorge is voicing this opinion to perhaps save someone from making bad investments but it seem more like fear mongering to scare some noobs to being afraid of China that they sell at or near a bottom.

his investment seems questionable, at best - to supposedly save us from ourselves.

I don't want to save anyone on this thread. I assume you all are adults and know the game you are gambling in. I feel that I have an obligation to warn people who may be lured into investing in bitcoin with false promises, but they are unlikely to be reading here.

A very lucid argument for playing devil's advocate. I believe Jorge is a troll of much underestimated skill. My respect for you grows again, sir.

I have respect for his communication skills, too. He can engage in fairly sophisticated rhetoric to lure us into a false sense of security regarding his FUD spreading motives. In actuality, he is like an oily lil piggie, you think that you have him caught and he slips away - out of your grasps. No disrespect to either Jorge or lil piggies. Cheesy

Quote from: sidhujag on May 18, 2014, 06:51:21 AM

Quote from: rpietila on May 18, 2014, 06:40:21 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 18, 2014, 01:43:58 AM

So I am puzzled by this calm, I can't understand what those Chinese sellers are waiting for.

The nature of Bitcoin - once you sell it, you can't sell it again.

After 6 months of selling, no more coins in the sellers' hands.

Volume down.

Next: UP. No other way is even possible.

When: Don't know exactly, but 650 by the end of June is a possibility. Top could be in August-September.

Maybe.. but usually No Demand is a sign of a top. I'd like to see a monthly high volume up thrust.

I tend to agree with Rpietila, here. The markets seem to be running out of people willing to sell BTC at the current price. A very large majority of those who wanted to sell have already sold at prices - higher than the current price point.

To suggest that there is a lack of demand based on an overall lack of volume seems to be a misreading of the current state of affairs.

Quote from: Searing on May 18, 2014, 06:52:59 AM

Quote from: rpietila on May 18, 2014, 06:40:21 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 18, 2014, 01:43:58 AM

So I am puzzled by this calm, I can't understand what those Chinese sellers are waiting for.

The nature of Bitcoin - once you sell it, you can't sell it again.

After 6 months of selling, no more coins in the sellers' hands.

Volume down.

Next: UP. No other way is even possible.

When: Don't know exactly, but 650 by the end of June is a possibility. Top could be in August-September.

like the way you think

.....I mine in the USA I hope the only problems I have is how to pay IRS their 25% share of 'gross mining profits"

did not have to pay any taxes last year cause they had 50% off equip depreciation in 2013 (likely will be same in 2014) then standard depreciation according to my CPA

the IRS Guidelines 2013 of bitcoin as property ie/land (crap i'm a farmer) thus the equipment option..

and before people jump on me why I'm reporting ..did as a newbie KNC wire xfers (no btc)

bank screwed up 6x and did a total of 4 to knc refunded 3...and kept 1 (titan) ...so each time in USA you sign a paper over 10k wire xfer you are not xfering money

for criminal activities..with that much paper floating about decided to fess up after the guidelines came up (had like 20 days gee thanks) do my btc taxes legit

via amending my taxes for 2013...so you guessed it

anwyay bank did come after me threatened to tell feds...went down with 'legit' taxe forms done on bitcon 2013...showed it was their 6 missfires on getting the wire

xfers out ...and avoided a LOT of pain with the IRS ..(sometimes it is good to be paranoid!!!)

so anyway if what you say is correct I likely need to buy MORE equipment.....sigh...hopefully the rules will change back next year

anyway..if BTC even stays at 500 bucks should work out for me...if it hits 1000 bucks btc....equip buying again here I come....

FML

Searing

Searing: Either you are confusing me, or I am confused about the reporting obligation for miners. I thought that you, as a miner, did NOT have to report until you realize your gain.... meaning that you do NOT have to report until you sell your BTC. Even though the value (or the basis) of the BTC would be calculated from the time that you mined the coin. So my point is that you would NOT have to report your gain until you sell... Am I incorrect? On the other hand , if you are taking depreciation, then you need to be able to take that depreciation against some value.

Quote from: RandomPedestrianN9 on May 18, 2014, 02:53:34 PM

Anybody who opposes *something i like or believe in* is a troll, a terrorist, a pedophile, a rapist and an idiot.

You are a troll b/c you are spreading FUD... You do NOT even attempt to back up what you are saying with either logic or facts. Accordingly, you submit your stupid-ass statements, and expect someone else on the thread to do all the work of analysis and/or clarification.

Quote from: sidhujag on May 18, 2014, 05:35:04 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 18, 2014, 11:16:28 AM

Quote from: sidhujag on May 18, 2014, 06:51:21 AM

Quote from: rpietila on May 18, 2014, 06:40:21 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 18, 2014, 01:43:58 AM

So I am puzzled by this calm, I can't understand what those Chinese sellers are waiting for.

The nature of Bitcoin - once you sell it, you can't sell it again.

After 6 months of selling, no more coins in the sellers' hands.

Volume down.

Next: UP. No other way is even possible.

When: Don't know exactly, but 650 by the end of June is a possibility. Top could be in August-September.

Maybe.. but usually No Demand is a sign of a top. I'd like to see a monthly high volume up thrust.

I tend to agree with Rpietila, here. The markets seem to be running out of people willing to sell BTC at the current price. A very large majority of those who wanted to sell have already sold at prices - higher than the current price point.

To suggest that there is a lack of demand based on an overall lack of volume seems to be a misreading of the current state of affairs.

If you knew the current state of affairs for the
chart of bitcoin you would be the richest and smartest man on earth. I think you lack understanding on price. Anyways like I said technically no demand is bearish.. we need that tl to break with high volume as an upthrust.

You are suggesting that without volume BTC prices are going to continue to go down, and I do NOT believe that it is a given that BTC prices are going to continue to go down from here... even absent additional volume.

Maybe you are more enlightened than me; however, I doubt that you are so much more enlightened as to proclaim that I "lack understanding of price."

Quote from: RandomPedestrianN9 on May 18, 2014, 08:18:39 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 18, 2014, 08:15:31 PM

Quote from: RandomPedestrianN9 on May 18, 2014, 02:53:34 PM

Anybody who opposes *something i like or believe in* is a troll, a terrorist, a pedophile, a rapist and an idiot.

You are a troll b/c you are spreading FUD... You do NOT even attempt to back up what you are saying with either logic or facts. Accordingly, you submit your stupid-ass statements, and expect someone else on the thread to do all the work of analysis and/or clarification.

Free ignore hugs, there there.

I am glad that I did NOT have to work too hard in order to achieve such recognition, from a troll who is NOT even interesting NOR good at it. Cheesy

Quote from: Asrael999 on May 19, 2014, 03:12:40 PM

Quote from: shmadz on May 19, 2014, 03:07:42 PM

Quote from: Asrael999 on May 19, 2014, 02:40:08 PM

You really would have to have a monumental lack of patience to dump 500 coins at once into this market. At least do 250, let the bids fill in again and then do the other 250.

what if you're trying to sell several thousand coins and have been doing so in ~500 coins chunks over the past several days?

you would still be better off going slower than 500 coin lots. And yes I agree that is exactly what someone is doing, either a miner or someone who owns a lot of coins from somewhere else - although one hopes that Stamp might have refused one particular exchange operator an account.

I agree that it would be clever to spread out the sell chunks... but it seems to be nearly pure speculation to suggest that the sales are coming from one coin holder. We do NOT really know such.. so we are speculating.... even though there could be several sellers.. who just are attempting to get in their sale intermediately before someone else gets in... and yes, on low volume these various sales bursts seem to show up (but they are still occurring on high volume, too).

Quote from: gentlemand on May 20, 2014, 01:02:22 AM

Has anyone bothered to measure the world record for consecutive Chartbuddy postings?

I doubt that we could all agree to refrain from posting long enough to create a 24 hour chart buddy series.

Quote from: dropt on May 20, 2014, 04:53:33 AM

Quote from: y3804 on May 20, 2014, 04:45:18 AM

Quote from: dropt on May 20, 2014, 04:31:02 AM

Quote from: y3804 on May 20, 2014, 04:10:26 AM

Rumors. And bullshit

You're just pissed you don't have any more negative China "rumors and bullshit" to post.

Why should I post more FUD? (facts u dislike?)

I've already said everything there need to be said. Now we wait

btw, I get real-time news update from China from about 25 sources, so that's why I said bullshit

Because you said that you loved posting those topics, which makes you a dick IMO. That's great that you get some BS Chinese news feeds. Whats even better is that you can't even read Chinese and rely on Google translate when a number of native Chinese speakers have warned that doing so is quite dumb.

Edit: And using "facts u dislike" for FUD is almost as stupid as "hodl", neither of which earns the user respect in my book.

There is a difference between using "facts U dislike" for FUD and hodl for hold. HODL is innocent and a non-substantive form of fun.

"Facts u dislike," on the other hand, is quite substantively different from the true meaning of FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt), and "facts u dislike" is intentionally and purposefully misleading to the reader and especially the unfamiliar reader can be mislead by such disinformation..

The use of "facts u dislike" for FUD is a high level of disingenuous communication that purposefully and knowingly attempts to inflame others by changing the meaning of a term.... Even though the matter may seem trivial, it is NOT.... b/c it is deceit at its core, and it is NOT done out of fun. It is like proclaiming that the FUD is unfud (b/c it is "facts"). the opposite of its original and common usage.

I believe that anyone who engages in purposeful marketing behavior to mislead and to deceive readers by calling things the opposite of their true meaning are guys who are a bunch of jerks (and probably mostly guys, though there may be a few women in the mix) and that includes guys who proclaim that FUD means "facts u dislike" when in fact the term FUD is attributable to the spreading of "fear, uncertainty and doubt" and the term continues to be used to describe the spreading of "fear uncertainty and doubt." FUD about FUD is saying that FUD means "facts u dislike."

Quote from: Blitz on May 20, 2014, 06:33:47 AM

Based on my anectodical experience, people who mislike usage of "Facts U Dislike" are prone to mislabeling facts they don't like as FUD, as in "Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt". It's a kneejerk reaction to anything that might not be good, and questions its authenticity and nature.

You are oversimplifying matters. These two concepts are NOT the same, and you should know better, especially as a moderator.

I agree with you that some facts are misunderstood, difficult to diceipher or some facts are NOT accepted, but that is a different story than attempting to spread rumors to conflate these two uses of the term FUD.

I have NO problem talking about and presenting and debating negative or unfavorable facts, so long as the facts are truly facts rather than opinions, probabilities and speculations framed as absolute facts.

So, let us engage in a dialogue and a conversation rather than labeling. I have NO problem with a dialogue that is done in good faith and that is substantiated.... and/or qualified and/or clearly articulated, or good faith attempts at such.

Quote from: rpietila on May 20, 2014, 07:24:18 AM

Quote from: Blitz on May 20, 2014, 06:33:47 AM

Based on my anectodical experience, people who mislike usage of "Facts U Dislike" are prone to mislabeling facts they don't like as FUD, as in "Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt". It's a kneejerk reaction to anything that might not be good, and questions its authenticity and nature.

Based on my psychological skill, the people who keep FUD's original meaning will on average have 10 times better ROI in the next 3 years, compared to the people who troll with "facts you dislike".

+1

Quote from: oda.krell on May 20, 2014, 07:42:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 20, 2014, 06:21:33 AM

There is a difference between using "facts U dislike" for FUD and hodl for hold. HODL is innocent and a non-substantive form of fun.

[snip]

So many words. So little information.

Completely agree with dropt on this one: 'facts U dislike' and 'hodl' are both rather idiotic expressions, at least when used ad nauseam as is common in here, and those who use them regularly do themselves a disfavor in my opinion.

And thinking the former sucks, while the latter is "innocent and fun", well, that's just the bull in you talking.

Yes, you cut out my information b/c it is much more convenient for you to keep up with this bearshit line of reasoning (attempt at acting like you are more neutral than the bulls, here). I provided a decent explanation, and surely it could have been shorter and better stated. Nonetheless, I provided a logical explanation that was neither bearish nor bullish, and you attempt to negate my explanation by dismissing it as bull-ish (but conveniently, you "snip" it out so you do NOT have to be bothered with its contents). Your attempt here to oversimplify does a disservice to your assertion that I am supposedly biased by a bullish view on this FUD topic.

Quote from: nanobrain on May 20, 2014, 07:47:02 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on May 20, 2014, 07:42:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 20, 2014, 06:21:33 AM

There is a difference between using "facts U dislike" for FUD and hodl for hold. HODL is innocent and a non-substantive form of fun.

[snip]

So many words. So little information.

LOL...that should be JJG's signature. Cheesy

Yes, seems difficult for some nanobrains (oh wait???) to comprehend any ideas that are expressed more complexly than one or two sentences. Tongue

Quote from: Blitz on May 20, 2014, 07:58:20 AM

What I do see being (ab)used ad nauseam is FUD (some news I don't like? Oh yeah, FUD!), and "Facts U Dislike" to me is a counter to that. Fire with fire. Cheesy

Speaking of fire, you should be fired from being a moderator based on your spreading FUD about FUD.

Quote from: Blitz on May 20, 2014, 07:58:20 AM

As to that, I don't really like the HODL CCMF 2DAMOON either, but you won't see me complaining. And really now, can you even remotely compare the two in frequency? That's why I am bewildered about the (feigned?) annoyance.

PS: Who wrote that quote in your signature? Mat too?

Oh wait, did I just say you should be fired? Huh

?? he hehe... I take it back... I agree with this more recent statement, so the bitcointalk "powers that be" should promote you. Cheesy

CCMF.... 2DAMOON..... Wink

Quote from: oda.krell on May 20, 2014, 08:16:06 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 20, 2014, 08:10:25 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on May 20, 2014, 07:42:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 20, 2014, 06:21:33 AM

There is a difference between using "facts U dislike" for FUD and hodl for hold. HODL is innocent and a non-substantive form of fun.

[snip]

So many words. So little information.

Completely agree with dropt on this one: 'facts U dislike' and 'hodl' are both rather idiotic expressions, at least when used ad nauseam as is common in here, and those who use them regularly do themselves a disfavor in my opinion.

And thinking the former sucks, while the latter is "innocent and fun", well, that's just the bull in you talking.

Yes, you cut out my information b/c it is much more convenient for you to keep up with this bearshit line of reasoning (attempt at acting like you are more neutral than the bulls, here). I provided a decent explanation, and surely it could have been shorter and better stated. Nonetheless, I provided a logical explanation that was neither bearish nor bullish, and you attempt to negate my explanation by dismissing it as bull-ish (but conveniently, you "snip" it out so you do NOT have to be bothered with its contents). Your attempt here to oversimplify does a disservice to your assertion that I am supposedly biased by a bullish view on this FUD topic.

Look, I'll try to keep it short, and I'd ask you to do the same:

During the past 2, 3 months, most news about the Chinese exchanges was greeted by "FUD" in here, by and large.

Now, we'd probably agree that those "news" were hardly worth the name, but they were also not what you should strictly call "FUD" -- those who posted (and discussed) the items were not necessarily trolling. I know I wasn't.

So renaming FUD as "facts u dislike" was probably an attempt to counter that. I personally don't like it, but I liked it even less that discussing news events was suddenly grounds for being suspected of un-bitcoinian activities.

I have NO problem with the example that you just provided, yet without seeing specifics, your comment seems like a broad generalization b/c in any group, there will be some people who act out, but are NOT representative of the group.

Surely, you may be correct that a large number of bulls were (and have been) denying the importance of china, even while BTC prices were falling. Nonetheless, we would need a context if we would say that a bunch of these BTC moonstruck bulls were overly misusing the term FUD as a means to avoid reality and to denigrate their distractors.

In the end, I maintain that redefining FUD, as a smart-ass response to intentionally exaggerate the detachment of some of these posters from reality does NOT move along the conversation in a productive direction and it seems to be purposefully denigrating and incitement - like saying that bulls are part of a cult or a religion or some of those other bearshit comments.

I believe that most bulls can accept when bears talk bearish, so long as they substantiate their comments and use logic, reason and disclose when they are merely asserting a guestimate.

Quote from: fonzie on May 20, 2014, 08:21:33 AM

Google bans Bitcoin!!

http://www.coindesk.com/secure-wallet-extension-kryptokit-disappears-chrome-browsers/

It looks really bad. Only a week after SecondMarket got their bank account banned due to Bitcoin, now google takes the next step.´
Undecided

like herpes... doesnt quite go away, flares up when least expected.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 20, 2014, 09:18:06 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 20, 2014, 09:08:34 AM

I have NO problem with the example that you just provided, yet without seeing specifics, your comment seems like a broad generalization b/c in any group, there will be some people who act out, but are NOT representative of the group.

Surely, you may be correct that a large number of bulls were (and have been) denying the importance of china, even while BTC prices were falling. Nonetheless, we would need a context if we would say that a bunch of these BTC moonstruck bulls were overly misusing the term FUD as a means to avoid reality and to denigrate their distractors.

In the end, I maintain that redefining FUD, as a smart-ass response to intentionally exaggerate the detachment of some of these posters from reality does NOT move along the conversation in a productive direction and it seems to be purposefully denigrating and incitement - like saying that bulls are part of a cult or a religion or some of those other bearshit comments.

I believe that most bulls can accept when bears talk bearish, so long as they substantiate their comments and use logic, reason and disclose when they are merely asserting a guestimate.

Agreed on most of what you say.

But I still think you apply a double standard: bears would accept bulls talking as long as they provide reasons for their claims, and bears... you're not seriously going to claim that bulls are on average "more reasonable" than the bears posting here?

At least the way it looks to me, the ratio of exuberant, resistant to reason bulls to bulls in total is about the same as that of permanently pessimistic, resistant to reason bears to bears in total. Just the numbers bulls vs. bears in total is heavily in favor of bulls, which is okay, considering that this is, in the widest sense, a pro bitcoin forum.

I agree to the extent that you may be saying that some bears can be reasonable and some bulls unreasonable.

To me, it does NOT make a whole lot of sense for some bears to be involved in this forum, especially, if they are NOT contemplating investing. It makes more sense for a day-trader bull to be involved in this forum.

So, personally, I find it a little irritating to be dealing with the bears who are NOT at all invested and have NO intention to invest, and I question their motives, even those, such as Jorge, who once in a while make a contribution to the dialogue.

Overall, we may NOT disagree very much, just a matter of degree - or maybe if we get into a specific scenario, we may disagree on where to place the emphasis.

Quote from: PoolMinor on May 21, 2014, 01:52:59 AM

Quote from: shmadz on May 21, 2014, 01:46:44 AM

last time, it went from about 130 to over 1100 - almost a ten-bagger

this time, it's launching from 450

my question to you is, when are you selling?

Between $1200 and $5000, incrementally of course at a 1% on the low end stepping it up in increments 0.5% of the resulting new balance each ~3 days. I will build a spreadsheet so I don't get confused.

Edit:

BTC Amount sold % sold
40    0.4    1.00%
39.6    0.594    1.50%
39.006    0.78012    2.00%
38.22588    0.955647    2.50%
37.270233    1.11810699    3.00%
36.15212601    1.26532441 3.50%
34.8868016    1.395472064   4.00%
33.49132954    1.507109829    4.50%
31.98421971    1.599210985    5.00%
30.38500872    1.67117548    5.50%
28.71383324    1.722829994    6.00%
26.99100325    1.754415211    6.50%
25.23658804    1.766561163    7.00%

Your plan seems to be missing at least one important detail and that is the increments... you said every three days.. and that makes No sense... but if you said every $270 the price goes up, then that would divide up into 14 sales between $1200 and $5000 - but You could NOT measure specifically the time line for such a rise in BTC prices.

Quote from: shmadz on May 21, 2014, 02:28:58 AM

Quote from: mymenace on May 21, 2014, 02:21:07 AM

Quote from: thezerg on May 21, 2014, 02:18:00 AM

Quote from: ampere9765 on May 21, 2014, 02:09:31 AM

Quote from: shmadz on May 21, 2014, 01:46:44 AM

last time, it went from about 130 to over 1100 - almost a ten-bagger

this time, it's launching from 450

my question to you is, when are you selling?

Seems most are thinking it's bubble time? Hmmm. What was that thing people say about everyone expecting the same thing? Hehe. Wink

Yeah, IMO you aggressive bulls are jumping the gun here. We popped a bit which caused wavering fence sitters to freak out and buy. We'll consolidate here for a bit, and hopefully trickle up for a month... this price action will start convincing the larger players and the media that the next run is coming. But I don't think its bubble time, instead compare it to the rebound from 2 to 4+ (in early 2012).

this

this would be my greatest wish, nice slow growth

my greatest fear is that this will hit 6 digits before the next block reward halving Shocked

Yeah that would be horrible to hit 6 digits before 2017, especially for those NOT invested in BTC.

Quote from: PoolMinor on May 21, 2014, 03:49:24 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 21, 2014, 03:40:51 AM

Quote from: PoolMinor on May 21, 2014, 01:52:59 AM

Quote from: shmadz on May 21, 2014, 01:46:44 AM

last time, it went from about 130 to over 1100 - almost a ten-bagger

this time, it's launching from 450

my question to you is, when are you selling?

Between $1200 and $5000, incrementally of course at a 1% on the low end stepping it up in increments 0.5% of the resulting new balance each ~3 days. I will build a spreadsheet so I don't get confused.

Edit:

BTC Amount sold % sold
40    0.4    1.00%
39.6    0.594    1.50%
39.006    0.78012    2.00%
38.22588    0.955647    2.50%
37.270233    1.11810699    3.00%
36.15212601    1.26532441 3.50%
34.8868016    1.395472064   4.00%
33.49132954    1.507109829    4.50%
31.98421971    1.599210985    5.00%
30.38500872    1.67117548    5.50%
28.71383324    1.722829994    6.00%
26.99100325    1.754415211    6.50%
25.23658804    1.766561163    7.00%

Your plan seems to be missing at least one important detail and that is the increments... you said every three days.. and that makes No sense... but if you said every $270 the price goes up, then that would divide up into 14 sales between $1200 and $5000 - but You could NOT measure specifically the time line for such a rise in BTC prices.

I am sorry the $1200-$5000 was meant to be that range of selling I will start at $1200 and 5.2857 weeks later we will be at ~$5000. My math is correct, so is my high hope.

Thanks for the clarification.

You are confirming my suspicion that your plan is incomplete, and pie in the sky (at least regarding the timeline projection).

It seems very unrealistic to have your trigger points to rake profits to be number of days to trigger the next raking of profits b/c it remains very improbable that any increase in BTC prices would follow a incremental and predictable uptrend.. it will not be linear and will likely be spurts and ups and downs - two steps forward and one step back and three steps forward and two steps back and four steps forward and four steps back and ten steps forward and three steps back... you get the picture? In other words there is likely to be ups and downs in the price increases. In other words, you should calculate dollar amount increases or percentages, such as ($270 or some similar amount) to trigger your next rake of profits. Maybe the dollar amount would be lower at the low end of the projection b/c a lower amount represents a higher percentage of gain, and the dollar amount would be higher at the higher end of the projection.

Actually, you can trigger a rake at every 10% growth or every 12% growth since your last rake. Some of these terms and ideas are similar to the Rpietila SSS thread.

Quote from: Syke on May 21, 2014, 05:12:31 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 21, 2014, 12:59:34 AM

You mean the rally was caused by this post of mine:

Did you finally buy a bitcoin? No? Then you had nothing to do with the rally.

Jorge retains some fantasy illusion that his posts affect the behavior of some marginal newbies, and if he just saves one person or a few people from investing in BTC, then he has accomplished his objective - total bullshit, but what can one do? probably we have to accept his to some extent.... or tolerate..... NOT like we can get him banned - and he is pleasant enough, even though he can be a little annoying at times with his whimsical and outlandish theories. Tongue

Quote from: martinjames on May 21, 2014, 11:48:28 AM

Quote from: rpietila on May 21, 2014, 04:39:24 AM

Quote from: shmadz on May 21, 2014, 01:46:44 AM

this time, it's launching from 450

my question to you is, when are you selling?

I have a resolution of not selling any below 2000.

I think that's an easy one to keep because the sell zone in the exponential trendline starts at earliest +0.4 points and we are there earliest mid-July at 4700. If it postpones till August or longer, it also goes higher.

I aim to sell at the top only, probably starting at 3000 and when it feels toppy. Apr-2013 my selling plan had just started the day before collapse. Nov-2013 I was too early (675) but managed to sell in bulk. It is hard to know the shape of the bubble top.

The ambitious plan is to buy back the same number of coins in the following crash, and use the proceeds to finish the castle repairs and miscellaneous expenses.

Thanks for your input. I’m interested to know your thoughts on the relationship between adoption and price and how this may affect your strategy. So far it looks like adoption and price are following each other and with continued adoption it seems highly likely that the price will continue to increase.

So far however, buyers and holders of btc are mainly small time individuals. In the likely event that Wall Street comes on board a few large players could seriously disrupt this correlation between user adoption and price. If you are basing your selling on your trend lines and Wall Street moves in quickly isn’t it likely that you may end up selling before the trend line has been updated?

Actually, I have been giving some thought to this Rpietila plan to NOT sell any BTC below $2,000, which seems to be in some tension with his SSS (smart,simple,sane) plan to rake some profits (such as 10% of BTC holdings) upon the doubling of the BTC price. My plans to rake some profits from my BTC holdings will kick in around $1,700 or $1,800, but I suppose such a raking of profits plan will vary for me depending upon how quickly BTCprices go up and whether there are any imminent and probable expectations that any large investors would be coming into the BTC space. Always there are these kinds of rumors about big investors coming in (and some information is more reliable than other info), yet there is also frequently going tto be some closed lipped manipulations of BTC prices, too.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 21, 2014, 02:33:08 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 21, 2014, 09:06:50 AM

Jorge retains some fantasy illusion that his posts affect the behavior of some marginal newbies

Rua Santa Ifigênia is the traditional "electronics street" of São Paulo, some 5-10 blocks with tiny to medium-sized shops selling from transistors to consumer electronics, with sidewalks lined with street merchant stalls selling all sorts of accessories, cartridges, software, etc.. A large part of it is contraband, pirated, or counterfeit (you can surely find a "legitimate" copy of Photoshop or Autocad there for a few bucks). Once in a while the police raids the place, confiscates a couple of tons of merchandise, gves out fines and maybe some arrests, just to justify their salaries; but that is all "priced in" as you might say.

Some 10-15 years ago a Ph.D. student of mine bought for her project a Sony camera that had a CD burner built-in and recorded images directly on small 3" CD-Rs. (There was a short time window when that camera made sense, because flash memory cards had about the same capacity as those CD-Rs but were much more expensive.) She was running out of the original supply of CD-Rs, and could not find then in Campinas; so one day we happened to be in São Paulo we thought of checking at Sta. Ifigiênia.

When you buy anything in Brazil the store is supposed to give you a "fiscal note", an official serially numbered receipt, of which they keep a copy. Those receipts are used by tax auditors to check whether the state sales tax is being paid. Obviously street merchants and stores selling contraband don't give no friggin' fiscal notes, especially for a small purchase like a box of blank CDs; but since we were paying with federal grant money we needed the fiscal notes, and moreover we had to pay with a check from the government account. We had to walk the whole street, asking at half a dozen computer supply shops, until we found a store that had those 3" CD-Rs, accepted the check, and gave us a fiscal note.

While we were walking back, people started shouting "tax inspectors, tax inspectors" all over the place. In ten minutes (no exaggeration) half the small shops in the entire street closed their doors, and all the sidewalk stalls had been hastily folded and thrown into vans that disappeared from view. For, you see, they had spotted two odd-looking people entering random shops and asking to buy some trinket with a fiscal note -- what else could they be?

So: don't underestimate.

That's a very nice story, Jorge, and it seems to illustrate that if you engage in a pattern of behavior, then people will react (which is probably true), and I suppose you are becoming famous on this thread, too, which could be like the butterfly flapping its wings in Africa causing a hurricane in Mexico.

Maybe 95% of us will find you incredible (or non-credible), but 5% of the readers may someday believe that you are making some kind of sense, and they will follow you.

It's like the actor or actress that does NOT know fuck about some political topic, but when they speak, their followers follow.

Quote from: Bagatell on May 21, 2014, 02:35:32 PM

Quote from: Cassius on May 21, 2014, 02:31:36 PM

Quote from: Bagatell on May 21, 2014, 02:08:45 PM

Quote from: simtal on May 21, 2014, 02:01:06 PM

People had very good arguments in decemeber why it would go down more so I wanted to see if anyone had the opposite argument for why it might go up.

Have you seen this?

Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point.

I'd be interested in seeing a better model, if there is one.

Anyone can make a model and to argue why the growth curve will follow that model - so instead of having 10x growth, you could have increasingly graduated growth, such as 9X then 8x then 7x then 6.5x then 6.25x then 6x then 5x then 4x then 3.5x then 3x then 2x then 1.5x then .5x then stable .2x into infinity. There are a lot of variations of such projected growth that could be argued as feasible.

Quote from: shmadz on May 22, 2014, 05:42:39 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 22, 2014, 04:10:20 AM

There is one idea in crypto-currency that is unquestionably good, but most parts of the bitcoin protocol are "good" only if one subscribes to the libertarian dogma that banks and governments are evils to be removed.

The only thing about bitcoin that matters is that it is an accurate ledger of transactions, that it is open to the public, and that it cannot be fucked with.

(apologies to JJG, this post has been heavily edited Wink

)

Whatever floats your boat, no?

Quote from: amitrwt on May 23, 2014, 01:37:17 PM

Quote from: rohnearner on May 23, 2014, 01:34:54 PM

Price On June 1st 2014
OPTIMIST
>800    - 48 (20.3%)
720    - 10 (4.2%)
648    - 43 (18.2%)

Realist
583    - 61 (25.8%)
524    - 41 (17.4%)
472    - 15 (6.4%)

Pessimist
425    - 4 (1.7%)
382    - 2 (0.8%)
<344    - 12 (5.1%)

Total Voters: 236

Good to know I'm Realist

and most of the members who voted

Probably many of us who voted early would like to move our vote upwards, based on recent events of the last few days.

Maybe next poll should have BTC price range predictions? EG:

>>>>>>>>>What do you predict the BTC price to be on x date?

Above $1000
$900-$1000
$800-$899
$700-$799
$600-$699
$500-$599
$400-$499
Below$400

<<<<<<<<<

Quote from: mmitech on May 23, 2014, 10:54:58 PM

I have been watching this forum long enough but in the last few days I've come to understand why many people decided to leave this forum.... I think I might do soon as well...

Why? Not informative enough? Misleading info?

Quote from: darlidada on May 24, 2014, 04:44:49 AM

Quote from: ChrisML on May 24, 2014, 04:24:21 AM

Quote from: darlidada on May 24, 2014, 03:59:25 AM

Quote from: ChrisML on May 24, 2014, 02:39:05 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on May 24, 2014, 02:33:40 AM

Weird how people suddenly are dumping. They are just so afraid we might go down again.

Let them dump, it has not much of effect. We went down $15,-. Been there, done that.

The sooner the retards are gone the better

I call another try for that wall $550,- within the next 24 hours. Before that we might see $505 on Bitstamp, but thats about it.

lol I was thinking about dumping and buying back sunday as its usually cheaper. But reading your post made me think again about it. I am a noob but my strength comes from knowing it. So I rely on you guys.

To make this clear, never rely on anything someone says here. Buying cause someone on here says you should buy... is stupid. Do what you think is best, with, I certainly hope, some common sense Tongue

Everyone can be wrong

I dont buy because someone say I should. I buy because of arguments. I know I shouldnt trade, especially since I want to hold long very long term but sometimes emotions got the better off me so I come to this thread to hear the voice of reason. I agree you are not all the incarnation of this voice, but I filter. Nonetheless, I think its urgent that I make a brain wallet so I dont do any stupid shit in case the best posters disappear and the only persons left are retards like me !

Edit: Thanks Adrian, I'll keep that in mind.

This is what happened: I had bought at 388, I wanted to sell off at 380 to buy back on sunday because its usually the moment where people lacks fiat. But now its 383 and rising ! I think I would have punched myself in the nose to educate me a little. This is how I learn. My problem is I can't stand being down short term. Its been hard to buy and buy in a bear market as everytime you back the next day its lower. Now I've launched multibit and this terrible software tells me that I've less amount in BTC that I had deposited. I think I should put some stuff into my asshole so I learn about dignity and how to handle loss like a fucking man.

Seems like a bad perspective if you cannot wait out the BTC market for the pricesto rise and to have a bit of patience

If you sell at a lower price than you bought then, you are locking in paper losses that are NOT really losses, until you lock them in, by selling.

You may get lucky, and the BTC prices go down and you do NOT get too greedy with your timing to buy back in.

More likely, you would be in better shape, just to wait it out... b/c the BTC prices seems more likely to rise than to fall... especially, if we are looking at a 6 month time horizon rather than a 1 week time horizon... so why get greedy, just with an attempt to add more value, but there is also a decent chance that you will bet wrong, if you were to sell, and then BTC prices do NOT go down..

Quote from: ChrisML on May 24, 2014, 04:49:33 PM

NOM NOM NOMNOMNOMNONNOM. ME SO HUNGRY.

Yes, lets see what sunday afternoon brings. Or monday. Or Tuesday.

Holiday in USA, too on Monday.

Maybe dip to $500, at the lowest before the weekend is over? However, I would think that over the last month or so that plenty of fiat has accumulated on the exchanges to defend any weekend sell off attempt(s). We cannot see that money, and accordingly, we cannot know for sure if it has been removed or if the fiat is still there on the exchanges.

Quote from: Ultros on May 25, 2014, 07:09:46 AM

IS THAT SHROOMSKIT??

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 26, 2014, 11:54:58 AM

Quote from: wachtwoord on May 26, 2014, 11:40:36 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 26, 2014, 11:38:44 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 26, 2014, 10:31:45 AM

Quote from: Cassius on May 26, 2014, 10:17:38 AM

@Jorge
I'm curious. You're an academic, and a scientist, I believe. So any theory you hold must be falsifiable in order to be viewed as credible.
Under what criteria would you entertain the idea that you might be wrong about bitcoin, or cryptocurrency in general?

I answered this some 6,223,678,221 pages ago on this thread. "Success" will be when bitcoin (or crypto) gets used by a large number of people because it is cheaper/faster/safer/easier/whatever than the alternatives. Not because one has a BTC stash to burn, not to support the cause, not to evade taxes or make illegal payments, not because it is hip, not to speculate with, not out of curiosity, etc.

Offline key/address generation and asymmetric crypto-signing of "digital checks" are undeniable wins that I am sure will be widely adopted eventually. As for the rest of the bitcoin protocol, and the Satoshi blockchain in particular, I am more skeptical than ever.

What's notable is that Trolfi admitted he couldn't be argued out of his position, so only empirical evidence will convince him.

So taking part in discussion is no longer useful for him. He needs to sit back and wait.

It's worse than that. A man who can't be persuaded by logic or reason is attempting to persuade others by logic or reason. That necessarily means the only people he could convince are people more open to logic and reason than he is himself. It's a hypocrisy that speaks more to the sorry state of academia than to anything else. These professors are not teaching students how to think. They are telling them WHAT to think.

I am NOT convinced that Jorge is representative of many professors.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 26, 2014, 01:27:35 PM

Quote from: rpietila on May 26, 2014, 12:27:46 PM

The reason that BTC is so cheap and progresses so slowly is that people are only exponentially "getting it".

Well, from December to April, especially from February, the Chinese were exponentially "un-getting it"; and that was swamping any growth outside China. (They may have started "getting it" again now, we'll see...)

You don't really know that. For all any of us know, the Chinese, as a collective, may hold more coins now than they did before February.

Quote from: seljo on May 26, 2014, 03:26:04 PM

Last few years bitcoin was closed for summer and this year some want us to think it will be different. I think this year will be like it was before low volume and low price until october and than we will see it rise again it's just my opinion I have nothing to back it up.

I have NO real clue either; however, to follow your theory, BTC would have to suffer a longer downtime, and it seems due for a rally. I doubt that the level of bitcoin activity is easily predicted or correlated by yearly seasons.... even though it may correlate somewhat with world events... for example, there were a few activities last year that came together in September/October, and one of them was the closing down of the USA govt.. which is NOT very frequently discussed as a contributory factor regarding BTC sentiment last year.

Quote from: zimmah on May 27, 2014, 03:35:03 PM

the 90's companies maybe, but the companies on bitcoin are bitpay, coinbase, Mt.Gox (already doomed), etc.

however TCP/IP, HTTP, FTP, etc are all still around. Those are the protocols.

Bitcoin (the protocol) will most likely survive in any scenario, while bitcoin (the currency) will gain value as Bitcoin gains more utility and becomes more easy to use for the average person.

The difference between the internet and bitcoin is that you can invest directly in the protocol, without having to invest in a company. Never in history was there a chance to directly invest into a potentially life-changing worldwide protocol.

+1 Yes, That's a great way to put it - to distinguish bitcoin from all other previous investments.

Quote from: windjc on May 27, 2014, 02:53:58 AM

For those of you keeping score, Mmitech decided to pull out of our bet from yesterday. He asked me to prove I had ownership of the 20BTC by moving it to a wallet which I did. However, when I moved it back out of that wallet after confirming, he said that I had to keep it there for 7 months - the reason I didn't want to take the bet in the first place - and then he said he was cancelling the bet and wanted to anyway.

While I am disappointed that again bets on this forum are always cancelled for some reason or the other, I thought I'd pass on the information and let it go. No hard feelings.

I thought that was a great bet, and I wished that it would go through b/c it demonstrates committed predictions.

I am of the belief that either escrow needs to be used (especially when such long time periods are involved) or to make the bets of such a small amount that they can be made on the honor system. 20BTC is too large an amount for anyone - even if you are holding 20,000 BTC or more. Why cannot the bet be made for 1BTC or much less? It still proves the point of commitment to the prediction, no?

Frequently, I ask about escrow possibilities, and hopefully some day, these are going to be more easily accessible within the bitcoin world.... trust-less escrow.. I look forward to the day.

Quote from: rafamadeira on May 27, 2014, 05:41:48 PM

Quote from: ChrisML on May 27, 2014, 05:36:07 PM

Lets just, ignore Jorge. Shall we? It would be such more of a blast to read through this thread without people going into an endless discussion with him. He/she/it wont ever admit anything, even at fault. So yeah, ignore?

I think that while Jorge keeps bringing information is valid to discuss .. It may take a while, maybe a few months, but at some point people (aka Jorge, in this case) will understand the idea.

You are giving Jorge too much credit for being ignorant. Sometimes, he may be ignorant, but frequently he is purposefully being selective in the data that he presents bc he is trying to appear as if he is presenting matters objectively and unbiased when in fact he is engaging in salesmanship.

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on May 27, 2014, 07:43:45 PM

Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on May 27, 2014, 07:39:30 PM

Does chang noi still post here? I just got back from Thailand, and if any country needs Bitcoin, its Thailand.

Bhatcoin?

i remember hearing last year that the Thai government, or maybe it was the central bank came out against bitcoin? was there any real legislation or regulation? maybe i am remembering wrong.

My understanding was that Thailand was hostile to bitcoin last year; however, within the last few weeks, they have given the green light to bitcoin exchanges. Of course, currently there is a lot of governmental turmoil in Thailand - yet the current status seems to be a green light for BTC in Thailand.

Quote from: hmmmstrange on May 27, 2014, 08:29:40 PM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on May 27, 2014, 08:27:49 PM

Quote from: hmmmstrange on May 27, 2014, 08:02:19 PM

Jorge,

How many students do you have? Are you willing to facilitate giving each of your students some bitcoin? I'm willing to fund a project like this.

Oooooh, great idea! I pledge to give 23 of his students (if there are any) 5mBTC each. Cheesy

you can quote me on this.

Thanks for quoting me as i'm sure he has me on ignore. I'll pledge $2000

Who is going to be in charge of distribution? Hopefully NOT Jorge, if he exists.

EDIT:

Woops!!! I see that a potentially viable answer to my question was made by Rpietila:

Quote from: rpietila on May 27, 2014, 08:36:19 PM

QuickCoin is a great way of doing this. You can send 3 times per minute to people who have a FB account but have not even heard of Bitcoin. I will send to all my FB friends..

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on May 27, 2014, 08:59:58 PM

Quote from: jgm_coin on May 27, 2014, 08:54:31 PM

Its obviously a W bottom - will breakout soon Wink

chart?

the bounce up from the 550/551 level seems like a correction to me. looks like we might head down from here. what do you guys think?

If you are NOT trolling, you seem to be too short term, in your thinking/charting.

Quote from: hmmmstrange on May 27, 2014, 09:38:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 27, 2014, 09:27:56 PM

Quote from: hmmmstrange on May 27, 2014, 08:29:40 PM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on May 27, 2014, 08:27:49 PM

Quote from: hmmmstrange on May 27, 2014, 08:02:19 PM

Jorge,

How many students do you have? Are you willing to facilitate giving each of your students some bitcoin? I'm willing to fund a project like this.

Oooooh, great idea! I pledge to give 23 of his students (if there are any) 5mBTC each. Cheesy

you can quote me on this.

Thanks for quoting me as i'm sure he has me on ignore. I'll pledge $2000

Who is going to be in charge of distribution? Hopefully NOT Jorge, if he exists.

EDIT:

Woops!!! I see that a potentially viable answer to my question was made by Rpietila:

Quote from: rpietila on May 27, 2014, 08:36:19 PM

QuickCoin is a great way of doing this. You can send 3 times per minute to people who have a FB account but have not even heard of Bitcoin. I will send to all my FB friends..

The problem with quickcoin is the transactions are not on the blockchain. If Jorge want's so get some academic value out of this "airdrop", it might be better to promote the use of blockchain wallets.

Jorge does NOT want to get any academic value out of anything related to bitcoin... He is just proclaiming such goals. He regularly ignores inconvenient facts, which is NOT a very academic approach. We should NOT be fooled by his purported professorship related to any bitcoin or cryptocurrency subject.

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on May 27, 2014, 10:28:24 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 27, 2014, 09:36:49 PM

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on May 27, 2014, 08:59:58 PM

Quote from: jgm_coin on May 27, 2014, 08:54:31 PM

Its obviously a W bottom - will breakout soon Wink

chart?

the bounce up from the 550/551 level seems like a correction to me. looks like we might head down from here. what do you guys think?

If you are NOT trolling, you seem to be too short term, in your thinking/charting.

i am saying that the bounce = corrective in formation. this suggests that the dominant direction is down. it has nothing to do with short term/long term, but rather the formation of the waves.

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics3.htm

You are likely more of an expert than me about the short-term technicals, and I tend to be more interested in the longer-term trends, b/c the short term seems to be all over the place.... and the price has been down for so long, I am of the belief that there is quite a bit of pent up demand - so long as people begin to sense that the price is going up.... but yes, I agree that there may be some ambiguity, especially depending upon the length of time of the chart's snapshot.

For me, if the odds appear greater than NOT that the price will go down, I may wait to buy, but I may NOT sell unless it seems fairly certain for a 8-10% downward movement.... So what to do, would depend upon confidence level, and I do NOT consider myself a trader... except maybe for the big trends.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 28, 2014, 07:09:03 AM

Quote from: sidhujag on May 28, 2014, 06:39:55 AM

Whats even worsed is hes on a bitcoin forum posting daily about something he doesnt believe in lol classic trollism 101...

And even worse, having to scroll through dozens of replies to every post of mine, by people who have nothing useful to say about bitcoin, but think it is important to discuss my person.

I like you alright, Jorge. I think that you can be creative and even entertaining, from time to time. I just think that you are a bad influence in this thread, b/c you are misleading people with your seemingly purposeful selectivity in your choice of facts and your sometimes charm... and you have screwed up ideas and perverted motives in your participation in this thread. Otherwise, you seem to be a o.k. as a person, if you are NOT a bot. Shocked

Quote from: JorgeStofli on May 28, 2014, 10:02:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 28, 2014, 09:38:18 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 28, 2014, 07:09:03 AM

Quote from: sidhujag on May 28, 2014, 06:39:55 AM

Whats even worsed is hes on a bitcoin forum posting daily about something he doesnt believe in lol classic trollism 101...

And even worse, having to scroll through dozens of replies to every post of mine, by people who have nothing useful to say about bitcoin, but think it is important to discuss my person.

I like you alright, Jorge. I think that you can be creative and even entertaining, from time to time. I just think that you are a bad influence in this thread, b/c you are misleading people with your seemingly purposeful selectivity in your choice of facts and your sometimes charm... and you have screwed up ideas and perverted motives in your participation in this thread. Otherwise, you seem to be a o.k. as a person, if you are NOT a bot. Shocked

Thanks you very much, this really means a lot to me, especially coming from you... I rarely read your posts because they are boring as hell and most of the time they do NOT contain any information or entertainment. Thanks anyway. Also:

WELCOME TO MY IGNORE LIST!

How did Jorge convert to a newbie? Are there two Jorge accounts by the same person /bot or by different peeps/bots?

Edit: OH... NOW I see that the second Jorge account is a troll account. Surprising that the system allows two users with the same name?

Quote from: Cassius on May 28, 2014, 02:08:04 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on May 28, 2014, 01:59:30 PM

Quote from: Cassius on May 28, 2014, 01:29:50 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 28, 2014, 01:21:03 PM

Quote from: Cassius on May 28, 2014, 10:17:05 AM

Quote from: JorgeStofli on May 28, 2014, 10:15:10 AM

I just bought my first bitcoin. Exciting. Could some please share the actual S.R. 2.0 link. Thanks.

I really like what you did there.

That newbie is not me.

The Bitcoin Goddess is NOT PLEASED. Guess what She does when She is not pleased.

Yes, Jorge, I'm well aware of that. I thought it was a good joke, is all.
Look, the thing is that although you make some useful points, and you are consistently polite in doing so, you are becoming increasingly strident. The fact that you very selectively choose what to argue - and a lot of people have made some very good points against some of your mistaken assumptions recently - means that it's not really worth engaging with you. Literally no point, because you appear to ignore anything that doesn't fit with what you already believe and move on.
That, unfortunately, effectively makes you a very polite troll. And I mean troll in its proper web-forum sense here, not just 'someone who doesn't agree with you'.

Thanks, Cassius. Nearly 100% my own sentiment (although I hesitate to put a "very polite troll" into the same mental category as a regular, barely intelligible, run-of-the-mill troll... but that's a matter of taste I admit). Please note the unnecessary highlighted parts that I especially agree with Cheesy

It is a shame. But then, I don't think the Speculation thread is the right place for Jorge, anyway.

Previously, Jorge said that he was posting here, in this thread, b/c it had a lot of traffic, and he could turn around many posts in a day, b/c of the high traffic of this thread. I am fairly certain he is living in lala land now, b/c he is achieving so much attention.... whether negative or NOT.

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 29, 2014, 04:57:38 AM

Quote from: shmadz on May 29, 2014, 04:36:55 AM

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 29, 2014, 04:29:04 AM

Quote from: shmadz on May 29, 2014, 04:09:11 AM

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 29, 2014, 04:05:51 AM

They sure have been dumping many coins into 3500 over the past 24 hours. Maybe they doing us a favor certifying that 3500 is very strong support. If it holds it should shoot straight up no?

As soon as my ~~money~~ fiat clears, I'm buying half, and setting the other half in a tranche back down to 450 (CAD on virtex)

I'm not giving advice, I'm just saying what I might hypthecically do.

*edit for clarity Cool

I'm currently 100% fiat and it doesn't feel good. I would love to get more coins, if the price goes up that is also nice

ok, I'm gonna stop posting now, cuz I'm probably just being stupid at this point, but if you are 100% fiat, how would the price going up be nice for you?

heavy into fiat has always been a scary place for me.

Increasing price will be seen as something positive by the public and the media. That will help adoption etc. Second I would love it if this article got it totally wrong: http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12

We are already in mid 2014 now so we are actually close to proving Mr. Williams wrong.

If you are relying upon that article to make your bitcoin investment decisions, then you are likely going to miss the train.

Surely, we are all guessing to some degree about the direction of bitcoin prices; however, at this point, it seems you would be lucky to get coins in the lower $500s, or possibly in the upper $400s. Even though we currently have some downward priceward movement, it seems that within the next few weeks, BTC prices are going to stabilize $600 and beyond

Quote from: Adrian-x on May 29, 2014, 04:23:21 AM

Quote from: fff13 on May 29, 2014, 04:10:56 AM

Pulling a number literally from nowhere, it FEELS as if we are around 0.5%. Anyone have a more accurate number?

Don't do all super bull but if 1 in 20 wind up using Bitcoin in some way we are somewhere between 0.5 and 1% adoption. I'd think. Bitcoin won't have that much penetration but be happy if 1 in a 100 found it useful so maybe we're between 3 and 5 % total adoption or maybe you're a laggard, and we're bag holders. How long is a piece of string?

These seem to be very conservative estimates. Currently, it seems that we have well fewer than 7 million people who have any kind of bitcoin investment. That is 1/1000 of the world population, if Bitcoin were to achieve that level of adoption. 1/20 would be about 350 million. That seems very achievable, and we seem to be about 1/50th of the way there... so .5% adoption seems to be a fairly conservative estimate... if we anticipate approximately a conservative 350 million person user base.

Quote from: shmadz on May 29, 2014, 04:32:05 AM

Quote from: Adrian-x on May 29, 2014, 04:23:21 AM

Quote from: fff13 on May 29, 2014, 04:10:56 AM

Pulling a number literally from nowhere, it FEELS as if we are around 0.5%. Anyone have a more accurate number?

Don't do all super bull but if 1 in 20 wind up using Bitcoin in some way we are somewhere between 0.5 and 1% adoption. I'd think. Bitcoin won't have that much penetration but be happy if 1 in a 100 found it useful so maybe we're between 3 and 5 % total adoption or maybe you're a laggard, and we're bag holders. How long is a piece of string?

*to address the bolded part:

I think 1 in 20 gets us to 5% - just saying.

How do you figure this 5%?

Quote from: Bitcopia on May 28, 2014, 07:51:44 PM

Quote from: kurious on May 28, 2014, 07:26:35 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 28, 2014, 04:26:55 PM

Quote from: TakeTheSkyRoad on May 28, 2014, 02:43:52 PM

Imagine a room full of people, not a big room (a large garage maybe) and they and cooperating to build something.

I don't think that is a good analogy for this thread...

Rather, a bar where a couple hundred random football fans are watching a game on TV and betting on it? Wink

Maybe you're right, but don't forget to add the old guy in the corner saying "This 'football' thing will never catch on, you know"

I was trying to think of how Jorge fits into his own analogy. This is perfect!

I really hate to give Jorge so much attention, but he does make it tempting... through his sophisticated trolling methods... he he he ...

The first analogy may have been better (the building of a project in a garage); however, the sportsbar analogy is also interesting.

Jorge would truly be the guy in the bar, who would NOT order from the bar, but bring in some food from the outside, and he would NOT be drinking, b/c he disapproves such. No one would really like him b/c he would be commenting on the game, but NOT know what the fuck he was talking about... bringing in golf analogies and such or talking about the immorality of the whole sport and drinking thing.

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 29, 2014, 07:24:14 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 29, 2014, 06:53:26 AM

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 29, 2014, 04:57:38 AM

Quote from: shmadz on May 29, 2014, 04:36:55 AM

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 29, 2014, 04:29:04 AM

Quote from: shmadz on May 29, 2014, 04:09:11 AM

Quote from: edwardspitz on May 29, 2014, 04:05:51 AM

They sure have been dumping many coins into 3500 over the past 24 hours. Maybe they doing us a favor certifying that 3500 is very strong support. If it holds it should shoot straight up no?

As soon as my ~~money~~ fiat clears, I'm buying half, and setting the other half in a tranche back down to 450 (CAD on virtex)

I'm not giving advice, I'm just saying what I might hypthecically do.

*edit for clarity Cool

I'm currently 100% fiat and it doesn't feel good. I would love to get more coins, if the price goes up that is also nice

ok, I'm gonna stop posting now, cuz I'm probably just being stupid at this point, but if you are 100% fiat, how would the price going up be nice for you?

heavy into fiat has always been a scary place for me.

Increasing price will be seen as something positive by the public and the media. That will help adoption etc. Second I would love it if this article got it totally wrong: http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12

We are already in mid 2014 now so we are actually close to proving Mr. Williams wrong.

If you are relying upon that article to make your bitcoin investment decisions, then you are likely going to miss the train.

Surely, we are all guessing to some degree about the direction of bitcoin prices; however, at this point, it seems you would be lucky to get coins in the lower $500s, or possibly in the upper $400s. Even though we currently have some downward priceward movement, it seems that within the next few weeks, BTC prices are going to stabilize $600 and beyond

If i relied on that article at all and invested in bitcoin at all I would be about as crazy as a member of a suicide cult. However I do agree that things are looking up a bit after last night where the bears in China again dumped into the wall at 3500 and again failed to bring the price down below that. There is so much resistance and I'm sure that the battle for the 1w MA and $600 can go on for a while. This was "just" round 3. If I only cared about profit I would prefer that the price went down, but on a personal level I would just like to see the bulls win this one.

I find your stated position difficult to understand. In essence, you are fairly confident that bitcoin prices are going to double digits - accordingly, you are NOT investing into bitcoin b/c you are convinced that bitcoin prices are soon going to plummet. yet, on the other hand, you would like bitcoin prices to rise b/c you have some kind of sympathy for the underdog. If that is your position, then it is a strange one, in my thinking.

Quote from: windjc on May 30, 2014, 07:23:39 AM

Quote from: freebit13 on May 30, 2014, 07:17:39 AM

This is sure to throw a spanner in the works for the big exchanges no?
http://www.coindesk.com/coinffeine-centralized-exchanges-distributed-alternative/

We already have NXT, why do we want a privately held "decentralized" exchange. And soon we will have Emunie.

Coinaffeine, spoinaffeine.

There is Mastercoin, Counterparty and Colored coins that are also contributing to decentralized exchange developments.

If any of these decentralized exchanges can gain momentum and use and mainstream acceptance and volume, that would be good for bitcoin (b/c that way, we do NOT have to give up control of our coins NOR our fiat to various centralized exchanges).

I am also looking forward to getting a circle invite in order to see how this no fees purchasing and selling plays out... The "no fees" situation may create another china... large volume and potential manipulation (b/c of the absence of fees - there has got to be a catch, no?).

Quote from: souspeed on May 30, 2014, 05:07:41 AM

Quote from: rezurect on May 30, 2014, 05:01:28 AM

From the charts it seems like its over for now. No show. 550 holding for now.
Will have to wait for a few days for any strong movement to 630+.

We can wait a few days, no problem with that.

Choo choo!

Personally, i would NOT mind to keep the prices down below $600 for about another month or month and a half... b/c I have quite a bit of fiat coming in my direction - but I am NOT sure exactly about the date that I will have my greedy little mitts on that fiat. And, I would like to sell that fiat for bitcoins, and better if BTC prices are below $600.

I made some BTC purchases in the $350 price range; however, NOT as much purchases as I would have liked b/c also during that price point period (1 day or so), I did NOT have access to very much fiat.

Another possibility would be to buy BTC on leverage, knowing that the fiat is coming in; however, I really am uncomfortable doing that when I do NOT have the fiat in my hands, in the event that the fiat does NOT come through as planned.. then I could be screwed if there is the additional bad luck of the price going down, rather than up.

Quote from: 4mherewego on May 30, 2014, 10:52:34 AM

Prediction for the next few hours:

The wall at 600 will be partly pulled, then we will see a rush to 620, then slow walk to 635, from there a crash down to 600 before the prices stabilizes around 610 again.

Quote me if I am right.

This sounds like a very good prediction... yet, I am NOT sure why it matters whether you are right or NOT, or why you think that it is important to get credit... so what if you happen to get it right.. doesn't really matter that much... ... but anyhow, it sounds like a good prediction.

Quote from: BinaryReign on May 30, 2014, 08:16:13 PM

Quote from: seljo on May 30, 2014, 07:51:07 PM

Ignore list rules for wall observer thread. Ignore all accounts created after 01.01.2013., do not ignore chartbuddy and you are safe.

Uhm, I disagree. By those standards you would have to ignore me, and I don't feel I deserve to be ignored, since I am not a troll, I have a great sense of humor, I don't spread fud, and I'm bullish on bitcoin Tongue

AND.... from what you are saying, it sounds as if you like yourself, which is a good thing. Cheesy

Quote from: SheHadMANHands on May 30, 2014, 10:29:58 PM

Wait, but I thought Professor Bitcorn said $10 by end of Q2?

End of Q2 is June 30, so 30 more days. Doesn't seem very likely, but still possible.

Quote from: JulieFig on May 31, 2014, 11:51:45 AM

Quote from: YipYip on May 30, 2014, 10:32:11 PM

Dont Forget......Very bullish on thread count we will break 7000 in 2 hours Cheesy

What about the day that Bitcoin prices surpass the number of thread pages on the Wall Observer? Now that is worth a party!

I had already made a prediction about that; however, I cannot remember what it was.

I think my prediction was in the $20k region, and in a couple of years, the thread pages will be 20K and the bitcoin prices will reach parity, let me guestimate, now, April or May 2016.

Quote from: JulieFig on May 31, 2014, 01:24:08 PM

Quote from: dnaleor on May 31, 2014, 12:12:52 PM

Quote from: JulieFig on May 31, 2014, 11:51:45 AM

Quote from: YipYip on May 30, 2014, 10:32:11 PM

Dont Forget......Very bullish on thread count we will break 7000 in 2 hours Cheesy

What about the day that Bitcoin prices surpass the number of thread pages on the Wall Observer? Now that is worth a party!

would be interesting to watch...
We should start drawing a log chart with the BTC exchange rate and the number of posts in this thread and watch the "spread" shrinking week after week Wink

Done - We are roughly looking at September 2015, unless we align during the March 2015 bubble cycle...

edit: Sorry about all the white space!

I like this much better than my prediction; however, I believe that it is more likely that the page to price parity will come later (like 6 months to 1 year later). But I am NOT so skilled as to make my own graphic depiction.

Quote from: oda.krell on May 31, 2014, 04:20:36 PM

Quote from: Nightowlace on May 31, 2014, 03:51:06 PM

Quote from: RUEHL on May 31, 2014, 03:42:59 PM

In the event of no good or bad press, based on the charts we're due for another pop over 630 approximately June 2-3.

I've been saying it for the last few days and I will say it again. $666 by Monday. Once the walls are removed/eaten that's the next stop. It seams to be a favorite hangout spot and then we will either crash back to $610-$605 or continue our rise. If we break $700 we will see a new ATH before any significant down turn.

I'm not saying you're wrong about $666 after the weekend, or even breaking $700 fairly soon. But I keep wondering how people can start seriously getting excited about the next ATH when volume still looks like this:

At some point between now and a new ATH we will need to see at least the volume of the peak days. Right now, we're at about a third to a fifth of that peak volume.

To be clear: that's not my way of saying that this rally is doomed. just that it seems way premature to even mention a new ATH before we're seeing similar volume spikes again as we did before, with upwards of 100k coins per day USD volume (and, yes, I'm okay with summing over stamp, finex and btc-e to have that count towards 100k)

You can also look at current volume in another way..... and in your chart, current volume kind of looks like October 2013 volume, and when price increases continue, likely volume increases will also continue. There seems to be plenty volume, at the moment. I am just hoping that the big sky ward direction will hold off for a month b/c I am supposed to have some fiat coming to me.....

Quote from: ChrisML on May 31, 2014, 07:31:15 PM

3rd wall I believe.

Anyways, if he had some brains he'd put it up on $640,-. People buy like crazies at this moment. Once that point is reached the wall will be eaten like a sandwich.

But yeah, stupid is as stupid does.

There seems to be too many assumptions that the whale is the same person. Let's say that he puts it at $640, then someone puts another wall at $630 and someone else puts another wall at $625. If a person is really motivated to sell quickly and to retain some price stability, then s/he is going to put the wall at the point to achieve that objective without having someone else get in at a lower point or the market reversing before it reaches his/her price point.

Quote from: adamstgBit on May 31, 2014, 07:48:35 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on May 31, 2014, 07:45:23 PM

If he has more coins ready and is smart he should stop putting up walls for a little while and slowly put them back again on the way up.
If he keeps adding these walls it might actually stop us from going up for a while and he will be forced to market sell or put a new wall up way lower.

maybe thats the plan...

he'll buy back when it goes down, and do it all over again

market maker!

bitcoin may be in this range for weeks....

or not!

so exciting

Grin

I hope that BTC prices remain in this range at least long enough for me to receive my fiat that is due to come in (could be a couple weeks or maybe up to 6 or 8 weeks on the outside...

Makes me anxious knowing that I have fiat is scheduled to be on the way (and pretty likely to come), but I am NOT sure exactly enough when it will arrive and for sure that it will arrive (even though I have assurances that the fiat will arrive).

Quote from: Richy_T on May 31, 2014, 10:15:45 PM

Quote from: Peter R on May 31, 2014, 10:03:33 PM

They were talking about it in the Meta section one day. IIRC ~0.1BTC is the going rate for Sr. Member.

Is there a premium for accounts with avatars?

I want an avatar!

Quote from: JulieFig on May 31, 2014, 11:46:34 PM

Quote from: dnaleor on May 31, 2014, 11:24:53 PM

Quote from: JulieFig on May 31, 2014, 10:46:50 PM

Quote from: dnaleor on May 31, 2014, 02:22:30 PM

Quote from: JulieFig on May 31, 2014, 01:24:08 PM

Done - We are roughly looking at September 2015, unless we align during the March 2015 bubble cycle...
(...)

LOL, GREAT Cheesy

Post a donation address! Cheesy

The only thing that could distort this model is that the number of pages in this thread will start an exponential trend Wink

You are so right! But maybe this whole thread is one big "Observer Effect" (hell - it's in the name of the thread!)...

The Observer Effect: "Changes that the act of observation will make on a phenomenon being observed."

(Side note: I have never received a donation before... that is so cool! There are some very nice people on this forum.)

edit: Had to add this...

I will send you one in a few minutes, need to restart my client.

Well, the BTC community is rather generous, I am here more than a year and when you actually produce a chart or help other people, you get donations, sometimes Wink

Is this a donation-worthy chart?

I did this up when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel here held, and sure enough, the price hit the lower channel boundary and is slowly creeping up (the red line).

I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

I then plotted these peaks only and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow an exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,800 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,000!

One last interesting point of note... the runup to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in the next 10-20 days?.....

Final disclaimer (before someone else says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.
... but it sure is interesting...

That charting and explanation is even nicer than the first one. You are a bit more optimistic than me, and I kind of wonder whether you are in approximately the Rpietila camp of optimism. I am doubtful that the future bubbles are going to be as grand as the past bubbles, yet I have NO problem if they are b/c I would benefit greatly from that, since I have expanded considerably my BTC portfolio over the last six months and I am expecting to expand my portfolio much more in the next year, as my fiat comes in.

Quote from: TERA on June 01, 2014, 04:32:30 AM

Quote from: seleme on June 01, 2014, 04:22:25 AM

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on June 01, 2014, 04:19:48 AM

Quote from: seleme on June 01, 2014, 04:16:31 AM

Quote from: rjp55 on June 01, 2014, 04:11:14 AM

Everyone having fun except Teara. Shocking development.

Tera and fun don't come in same sentence.

Tell her that when she's trading from the deck of her yacht in Monaco harbour.

I still wouldn't party with her tbh. I'd do it on my own yacht though Grin

I wouldn't party with me either. I am too analytical. And bitcoin has destroyed me as a person by causing me stress all the time - even when I am in a winning position my minds is stressed out due to the flood of data I have to keep up which runs 24/7 outside of my control. I feel like I can never party again until I leave bitcoin.

Why can't you just leave then? NO need to be engaged in something that causes negative energy. We each have to find a balance that works for us.

Quote from: TERA on June 01, 2014, 05:34:10 AM

I give up! I am revising my projections: price will immediately go to:

$1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

That's the spirit!!!!

Quote from: derpinheimer on June 01, 2014, 05:44:18 PM

Quote from: The goat formally known as Goat on June 01, 2014, 05:41:20 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on June 01, 2014, 05:37:43 PM

BTC @ 700 when?

nov 2013

Lol'd

Bid sum still a pathetic 12m but ask sum is just over10k Shocked

$720 is looking very likely in the next 24 hours, the way things are going. Currently at $675 with quite a few upward pressures.

Quote from: kryptopojken on June 01, 2014, 08:41:03 PM

This free beer shit is getting out of hand. Enough already

Everyone is getting drunk... fuck!!!!

Quote from: kryptopojken on June 01, 2014, 08:46:00 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on June 01, 2014, 08:43:10 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on June 01, 2014, 08:41:03 PM

Enough already

Welcome to the Wall Observer Thread. Grin

Lol I lurk this thread daily and don't see this much bs often at all

yeah... peeeps are really talking nonsensce.. now that everyone is getting drunk....

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 01, 2014, 09:02:02 PM

wife needs computer

open bar is close for 20 mins.

You need another computer, dude. Cheesy

Quote from: Krabby on June 01, 2014, 09:02:57 PM

Big Buys.

I really do NOT know the details or dynamics of the latest crash, exactly; however, I believe an interesting observation is that if you combine the exchanges, and you look at the crash over about 30 minutes to an hour, the quantity of bitcoins to bring down the price from $683 to $518 was approaching 20,000 BTC; however, if you look at the subsequent hours, the quantity of BTCs traded to bring the price back up, currently at around $660, was a fraction of that (less than half the amount, anyway).

Quote from: aminorex on June 01, 2014, 09:58:09 PM

Quote from: seleme on June 01, 2014, 04:35:55 AM

Last 2 weekly MACD crosses produced this:

I say 7x this time.

7x from what price point do we measure?

From the point at which it crosses? around $700 = $4,900

From the post ATH low point? around $339 = $2,373

From the previous all time high? $1,163 = $8,141

or from some other price point? ? = ?

Quote from: Gingermod on June 01, 2014, 10:50:15 PM

Can we fuck off with this beer & begging shit now?

It's Adam's thread. He can do anything he wants, including giving away bitcoins for the next 3,000 pages.... He may run out of bitcoin, at some point, though, but if it floats his boat, then so be it.

HODL, HODL, HODL.

or

BUY, BUY, BUY.

Quote from: Gyrsur on June 01, 2014, 11:41:24 PM

Quote from: keithers on June 01, 2014, 11:39:12 PM

I would be happy if we stabilized off back at $666. I know everyone wants $700+, but I am actually more happy with small sustainable steps...otherwise we get massive corrections downward...

it will not happen. crowd called the deamons and now they get the deamons. break the ATH somewhere in the future and the next big big level is 10k. then price will pull back in a massive drop.

Can you be more specific regarding the timing for these price points?

Anybody get a circle.com invite yet?

From my understanding, you have to go to their website to request an invite, and I made such an invitation request about a week ago.

However, I have received No invite from them, so far.

I would also be curious whether anyone has used their service(s) to purchase and/or sell bitcoin, yet.

Quote from: smiley123 on June 02, 2014, 02:00:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 02, 2014, 01:31:11 AM

Anybody get a circle.com invite yet?

From my understanding, you have to go to their website to request an invite, and I made such an invitation request about a week ago.

However, I have received No invite from them, so far.

I would also be curious whether anyone has used their service(s) to purchase and/or sell bitcoin, yet.

I'm wondering the same thing. I'm just guessing, but the thought occurred to me that they might be waiting for some regulation that might be coming soon before sending out the invites.

They said that they were going to try to moderate their growth rate; however, I have NOT heard any specifics about any normal person actually using it, yet.. or anybody else for that matter (referring to non-normal peeps).

Quote from: aminorex on June 02, 2014, 02:04:35 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 01, 2014, 11:07:11 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 01, 2014, 09:58:09 PM

Quote from: seleme on June 01, 2014, 04:35:55 AM

Last 2 weekly MACD crosses produced this:

I say 7x this time.

7x from what price point do we measure?

From seleme's box, bottom left: 648

I don't completely proclaim to understand the box or the number; however, it seems that $648 is the pricepoint in which the 1 week macd is projected to cross.

Also, I suppose that is as good a number as any which means BTC will achieve 7X of approximately $4,536,and then come down by 50% or so and then repeat again. I will plan accordingly ..... though taking the information with a grain of salt.. hopefully attempting to remain somewhat flexible too, b/c I am of the sense that human behavior, including markets and BTC prices cannot be completely mapped out in math.

Quote from: nioc on June 02, 2014, 02:34:40 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 02, 2014, 01:31:11 AM

Anybody get a circle.com invite yet?

From my understanding, you have to go to their website to request an invite, and I made such an invitation request about a week ago.

However, I have received No invite from them, so far.

I would also be curious whether anyone has used their service(s) to purchase and/or sell bitcoin, yet.

I requested and no invite. Several days ago there was a blog post on their site answering questions and it seems the #1 question was, where is my invite? The following is part of their answer.

We are not in general release whatsoever.

Making this worse from a Bitcoin pro’s perspective: The product is designed for casual consumers, so the initial invites have gone to those sorts of profiles rather than those who already breathe ECDSA crypto and the like. We’ll certainly expand, as we need the harsh feedback of the pro Bitcoiners just as well, but we will not expand quickly enough to please everyone.

Profiles? My "profile" consisted of my name and email address. The answer seems to be that we are still in the hype phase and that their answer is bullshit.

Thanks. Their answer seems a bit strange to be attempting to expand into a certain kind of user based on their invitation request. Probably, they fear that people will over use their site if they expand very quickly at all - b/c zero fees will create a trading incentive (like what goes on in china). Zero fees seems to good to be true.

Quote from: YipYip on June 02, 2014, 06:23:18 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on June 02, 2014, 06:08:25 AM

On today's menu, our bullish members will be mainly eating...

Dont think so drop kick .... Pplz gotta take profits and back we go up

I bet my left nut that we wont break 600 Cool

I am certainly bullish in my sentiments about the current state of bitcoin; however, it is truely idiotic in my thinking to be talking in such absolutisms regarding the bitcoin price. That's what gets people into trouble, and who the fuck really knows what kinds of manipulations can take place in the short term to affect BTC prices beyond expectations. So don't be betting your left nut on anything related to bitcoin prices b/c you may need that later in life, especially if you plan on having kids in the future.

Quote from: CEG5952 on June 02, 2014, 09:59:08 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 02, 2014, 09:45:01 AM

Quote from: YipYip on June 02, 2014, 06:23:18 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on June 02, 2014, 06:08:25 AM

On today's menu, our bullish members will be mainly eating...

Dont think so drop kick .... Pplz gotta take profits and back we go up

I bet my left nut that we wont break 600 Cool

I am certainly bullish in my sentiments about the current state of bitcoin; however, it is truely idiotic in my thinking to be talking in such absolutisms regarding the bitcoin price. That's what gets people into trouble, and who the fuck really knows what kinds of manipulations can take place in the short term to affect BTC prices beyond expectations. So don't be betting your left nut on anything related to bitcoin prices b/c you may need that later in life, especially if you plan on having kids in the future.

Agreed regarding the absolutism. Bitcoin blows everyone's minds when it goes both directions. And it's never a good idea to go around betting testicles. Just my two cents.

+1 he he he ... That's what I'm talking about... Cheesy

Quote from: MatTheCat on June 02, 2014, 04:17:39 PM

Quote from: hjunt on June 02, 2014, 07:52:41 AM

Nice surprise right when I woke up, rpietila showing his mansion at the front page of Helsingin Sanomat, Finland's largest news papers:

http://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/Suomalaismies+osti+kartanon+bitcoinilla/a1401596630456

From the article:
"34-year old Pietilä may be one of the few people who got rich with bitcoin before the virtual currency crashed in value" Roll Eyes

Also my first post here, been lurking tightly since the last bubble when I first learned about bitcoin and bought my first ones. Bought a little more this morning after reading the news. Grin

He looks a lot like Anders Breivik, I reckon.

I almost hate to say this; however, I cannot resist.

If someone who looks like this guy in this picture has a lot of money, then he needs to put that money to work for his own benefit, health wise. I am NOT talking about the genetic factors that cannot be changed, and I am sorry if there are unknown genetic factors present.

What I am suggesting is that this person, seemingly admittedly Rpietila, is looking too sickly for a 34 year old in the 21st century. These days we have longer longevities, but this picture looks like a person who is nearly on his death bed - pale and a kind of skinny fat.

Rpietila, I make this suggestion to you without hate and with your best interest in mind - b/c I would like you to be around in 1 year or 10 years or more, if possible.

I would prescribe changing some of the health factors that are within your control, and you have additional control over several lifestyle matters b/c you are supposedly well off in the money department (you do NOT have to work, if you do NOT want to).

Most important is diet. You need to make sure that you are getting sufficient quantities of meat and fat in your diet. Red meat, fatty fish would be good to make sure as staples. Some green vegetables would be good too. Cut out foods with added sugars, and especially a large number of processed foods, including those with fillers such as wheat, corn and soy. Try to limit your carbs to less than 35% of your diet. Actually less than 20% would be o.k. too, but up to 35% is acceptable so long as those carbs are mostly whole foods, and are not dominated by processed foods and sugars.

2nd : Sleep. Most people need at least 6 hours per day, but 6-9 hours may be o.k. More than 9 hours may NOT be good.

3rd: Exercise. Of course this can vary based on your total activities, but from the look of the picture, you have NOT been getting too much exercise in recent years. At minimum you should be getting 2 hours per week over 3 days. I would recommend more however, such as 4-5 hours of exercise per week. You do NOT want to over do exercise, b/c you need to control inflammation, especially if you are NOT used to exercise. Also, most people need to space out their exercise in order to build in rest and recuperation times, especially as we get older. You can combine resistance training such as weights with cardio-vascular. But since it looks like you may NOT exercise too much, you may want to warm up 5-10 minutes of cardiovascular before partaking in resistance training. Usually, it is better to save the bulk of the cardio-vascular for the end of your work-out rather than the beginning b/c you do NOT want to wear yourself out with cardio-vascular when it appears that you may need some muscle building.

Quote from: stan.distortion on June 02, 2014, 05:40:13 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 02, 2014, 04:48:51 PM

It amazes me there are still people selling. The market clearly wants to go up. Why would you possibly sell now.

Because you (ie the sellers) really, really want the market to go down Tongue

Maybe I've tinfoil goggles as well as a tinfoil hat but to me it looks fairly obvious, the dump yesterday, the SR 'crash', the brutal corrections any time it went near the trendline (peaks on log scale) on the way down and the countless FUD news articles and attempts to create panic.

Nothing to worry about imho, that which doesn't kill us... Those huge peaks on days destroyed and the way those coins entered the market is interesting though, I'd guess early involvement but it also looks similar to the number of coins missing from gox.

I really do NOT get the silk road reference bc it seems that there has been nothing but good news regarding silk road in recent weeks, including their supposed recovery of 82% of lost coins.

http://www.coindesk.com/silk-road-claims-80-stolen-bitcoin-repaid/

Quote from: jl2012 on June 02, 2014, 05:54:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 02, 2014, 05:47:55 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on June 02, 2014, 04:17:39 PM

Quote from: hjunt on June 02, 2014, 07:52:41 AM

Nice surprise right when I woke up, rpietila showing his mansion at the front page of Helsingin Sanomat, Finland's largest news papers:

http://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/Suomalaismies+osti+kartanon+bitcoinilla/a1401596630456

From the article:
"34-year old Pietilä may be one of the few people who got rich with bitcoin before the virtual currency crashed in value" Roll Eyes

Also my first post here, been lurking tightly since the last bubble when I first learned about bitcoin and bought my first ones. Bought a little more this morning after reading the news. Grin

He looks a lot like Anders Breivik, I reckon.

I almost hate to say this; however, I cannot resist.

If someone who looks like this guy in this picture has a lot of money, then he needs to put that money to work for his own benefit, health wise. I am NOT talking about the genetic factors that cannot be changed, and I am sorry if there are unknown genetic factors present.

What I am suggesting is that this person, seemingly admittedly Rpietila, is looking too sickly for a 34 year old in the 21st century. These days we have longer longevities, but this picture looks like a person who is nearly on his death bed - pale and a kind of skinny fat.

Rpietila, I make this suggestion to you without hate and with your best interest in mind - b/c I would like you to be around in 1 year or 10 years or more, if possible.

I would prescribe changing some of the health factors that are within your control, and you have additional control over several lifestyle matters b/c you are supposedly well off in the money department (you do NOT have to work, if you do NOT want to).

Most important is diet. You need to make sure that you are getting sufficient quantities of meat and fat in your diet. Red meat, fatty fish would be good to make sure as staples. Some green vegetables would be good too. Cut out foods with added sugars, and especially a large number of processed foods, including those with fillers such as wheat, corn and soy. Try to limit your carbs to less than 35% of your diet. Actually less than 20% would be o.k. too, but up to 35% is acceptable so long as those carbs are mostly whole foods, and are not dominated by processed foods and sugars.

2nd : Sleep. Most people need at least 6 hours per day, but 6-9 hours may be o.k. More than 9 hours may NOT be good.

3rd: Exercise. Of course this can vary based on your total activities, but from the look of the picture, you have NOT been getting too much exercise in recent years. At minimum you should be getting 2 hours per week over 3 days. I would recommend more however, such as 4-5 hours of exercise per week. You do NOT want to over do exercise, b/c you need to control inflammation, especially if you are NOT used to exercise. Also, most people need to space out their exercise in order to build in rest and recuperation times, especially as we get older. You can combine resistance training such as weights with cardio-vascular. But since it looks like you may NOT exercise too much, you may want to warm up 5-10 minutes of cardiovascular before partaking in resistance training. Usually, it is better to save the bulk of the cardio-vascular for the end of your work-out rather than the beginning b/c you do NOT want to wear yourself out with cardio-vascular when it appears that you may need some muscle building.

2 more advice:

No smoking

Light drinking

Gosh... they are even in the picture. Yes..... agreed about the no smoking and light drinking - though I think those two are lower on the priorities (4th and 5th). Maybe getting some sunlight would also be good? I know being in the NORTHERN latitudes, this is NOT always easy in the winter months, but still getting sunshine is important, and you do NOT need as much when you are light-skinned - maybe 60 minutes a week.

Quote from: Hunyadi on June 02, 2014, 06:02:23 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 02, 2014, 05:47:55 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on June 02, 2014, 04:17:39 PM

Quote from: hjunt on June 02, 2014, 07:52:41 AM

Nice surprise right when I woke up, rpietila showing his mansion at the front page of Helsingin Sanomat, Finland's largest news papers:

http://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/Suomalaismies+osti+kartanon+bitcoinilla/a1401596630456

From the article:
"34-year old Pietilä may be one of the few people who got rich with bitcoin before the virtual currency crashed in value" Roll Eyes

Also my first post here, been lurking tightly since the last bubble when I first learned about bitcoin and bought my first ones. Bought a little more this morning after reading the news. Grin

He looks a lot like Anders Breivik, I reckon.

I almost hate to say this; however, I cannot resist.

If someone who looks like this guy in this picture has a lot of money, then he needs to put that money to work for his own benefit, health wise. I am NOT talking about the genetic factors that cannot be changed, and I am sorry if there are unknown genetic factors present.

What I am suggesting is that this person, seemingly admittedly Rpietila, is looking too sickly for a 34 year old in the 21st century. These days we have longer longevities, but this picture looks like a person who is nearly on his death bed - pale and a kind of skinny fat.

Rpietila, I make this suggestion to you without hate and with your best interest in mind - b/c I would like you to be around in 1 year or 10 years or more, if possible.

I would prescribe changing some of the health factors that are within your control, and you have additional control over several lifestyle matters b/c you are supposedly well off in the money department (you do NOT have to work, if you do NOT want to).

Most important is diet. You need to make sure that you are getting sufficient quantities of meat and fat in your diet. Red meat, fatty fish would be good to make sure as staples. Some green vegetables would be good too. Cut out foods with added sugars, and especially a large number of processed foods, including those with fillers such as wheat, corn and soy. Try to limit your carbs to less than 35% of your diet. Actually less than 20% would be o.k. too, but up to 35% is acceptable so long as those carbs are mostly whole foods, and are not dominated by processed foods and sugars.

2nd : Sleep. Most people need at least 6 hours per day, but 6-9 hours may be o.k. More than 9 hours may NOT be good.

3rd: Exercise. Of course this can vary based on your total activities, but from the look of the picture, you have NOT been getting too much exercise in recent years. At minimum you should be getting 2 hours per week over 3 days. I would recommend more however, such as 4-5 hours of exercise per week. You do NOT want to over do exercise, b/c you need to control inflammation, especially if you are NOT used to exercise. Also, most people need to space out their exercise in order to build in rest and recuperation times, especially as we get older. You can combine resistance training such as weights with cardio-vascular. But since it looks like you may NOT exercise too much, you may want to warm up 5-10 minutes of cardiovascular before partaking in resistance training. Usually, it is better to save the bulk of the cardio-vascular for the end of your work-out rather than the beginning b/c you do NOT want to wear yourself out with cardio-vascular when it appears that you may need some muscle building.

Ok, I understand that you are a troll, but still, that's ill-spirited and harsh! It is not the best picture. Lighting is bad, angle is bad, etc. Also, Risto lives in Finland, no shit he is pale Cheesy

I don't know where you get your information about me supposedly being a troll. That comment is total bullshit, and if you read much substance of my multiple posts, you would realize that I make my posts with genuine attempts to communicate relevant ideas and without any ill-intentions towards anyone, except maybe trolls.. hehehe, which I again assert that I am NOT... . Accordingly, I even stated in my earlier post (and I meant it) that I did NOT make my comments towards Rpietila lightly or with any maligned intentions towards RPietila.

Regarding the substance of your comment. Lighting and angle are NOT going to account for the bad health that is depicted in such picture. Genetics may account for some of such depiction, and I stated that I was sorry, if genetics were the case... and that is why I largely attempted to focus my comments on the three main controllables (diet, sleep and exercise).

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 02, 2014, 06:08:53 PM

no one has time for that

Rpietila won't live forever

bullish?

I got a chuckle out of your post, and admittedly, I probably already said more than my fair share about that situation. So I will refrain from saying more, for the moment.

Adam:

I am wondering whether you could make the poll into ranges rather than absolute numbers.. and maybe provide the date to which you refer (end of the week is ambiguous)

For example:

"By June 6th, BTC prices will be:

less than $500
$500-$549
$550-$599
$600-$649
$650-$699
$700-$749
$750-$799
$800-$849
More than $849?"

Quote from: romneymoney on June 02, 2014, 06:57:05 PM

wtf unsolicited health advice
gee, rpietila can be healthier if he eats better, exercises more, don't smoke/drink. Like anybody with a pulse isn't already aware of that

Actually, you are correct that unsolicited advice can be really irritating and annoying, and I did NOT mean to be preachy or to deviate too far from the topic. Nonetheless, if we are able to spend 10 pages receiving donations from Adam in order to imbibe some beers, we should be able to spend a few posts talking about how to make our BTC wealth pay off for us, in regard to health and/or lifestyles. In this regard, Rptiela's lack of a healthy appearance stood out tremendously in that pic, and with all of those BTC proceeds that he claims to have in his coffers, he should be able to do something about his apparently unhealthy appearance.

If we are into accumulating wealth through bitcoin, then we should want to enjoy such accumulation, no?

Quote from: oda.krell on June 02, 2014, 06:59:14 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 02, 2014, 06:45:37 PM

I don't know where you get your information about me supposedly being a troll. That comment is total bullshit, and if you read much substance of my multiple posts, you would realize that I make my posts with genuine attempts to communicate relevant ideas and without any ill-intentions towards anyone, except maybe trolls.. hehehe, which I again assert that I am NOT... . Accordingly, I even stated in my earlier post (and I meant it) that I did NOT make my comments towards Rpietila lightly or with any maligned intentions towards RPietila.

Regarding the substance of your comment. Lighting and angle are NOT going to account for the bad health that is depicted in such picture. Genetics may account for some of such depiction, and I stated that I was sorry, if genetics were the case... and that is why I largely attempted to focus my comments on the three main controllables (diet, sleep and exercise).

You realize you post in a forum where, by virtue of the topic and the alignments with that topic, there's probably a pretty big overlap between users here and the crowd that populates your typical computer science/physics/math department...

When was the last time you have been to one of those? I'm afraid, you'd be advising a lot of people on the "three main controllables" in one of those

Even computer, science and math geeks have to realize that they need to take health preservation measures, if they want to continue being alive. Nothing wrong with a few vices, here and there. That's for sure.

Quote from: Parazyd on June 02, 2014, 07:36:55 PM

Quote from: fonsie on June 02, 2014, 07:31:04 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on June 02, 2014, 07:27:55 PM

MOON MNOON?

No No, that's the old saying, as of now it's "to da gyyym"

You gotta love bitcoin, solves banking problems and you get healthcare advise, all while making money.

BTC to cure cancer!

This is one of the most off-topic days on the Wall Observer. Cheesy

Since I may be partly to blame for this "off topic", I would like to defend my position.

I suggest that this is NOT an off topic day but instead a stretch of relevancy day b/c in essence, all subject matters are relevant to bitcoin and relevant to bitcoin prices, affected by the observation of bitcoin walls. Cheesy

Thanks Adam!!!!!

Quote from: stan.distortion on June 02, 2014, 08:26:35 PM

Quote from: keithers on June 02, 2014, 08:21:52 PM

ARE YOU GUYS SEEING THIS BUY ORDER ON STAMP??? 696 BTC

Funny to think that was a fairly normal sized trade just a couple of years ago.

I think that volume comparisons are over-rated, especially when we are talking in terms of bitcoins today as compared with bitcoins from a couple of years ago.

A couple of years ago, the bitcoin value in dollars was a fraction of today's value (maybe 1/50th - depending upon the exact time period) - even a year ago, BTC prices were about 1/5th of today's prices - and anticipated supra-$1,000 BTC prices that seem to be coming in the very near future.

Additionally, in the interim, we have witnessed some examples of fake volume (china) and possibly unwittingly non-existent BTCs (Gox), and those kinds of representations skew the comparison reference points. In essence, the questions concerning bitcoin should NOT be measured in BTC alone without defining more clearly and specifically the reference points.

Quote from: Parazyd on June 02, 2014, 08:32:20 PM

And bears offered us humble pie this morning. Grin

Bears have had their moments in the sunshine in the past few months and maybe even in the past 12 hours... but again, the proof of the pudding is going to be in the eating and we are on our way to the feast.... maybe we will be getting a few appetizers on the way, and we may get diverted for a few cigs and beers... yet, a feast seems in our near future... The cards seems to be stacked accordingly. Thanks Bitcoin infrastructure developers, merchants and HODLERs...

Quote from: oda.krell on June 02, 2014, 09:36:54 PM

Quote from: Blitz on June 02, 2014, 09:29:13 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on June 02, 2014, 09:26:00 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on June 02, 2014, 09:19:45 PM

Then, when it started to look like that didn't derail the rally, some decided to buy back in, creating momentum, so more bought back, etc.

Were you watching how it happened Oda?

It was very very strange.

Based on his description, I'm guessing he partook in it.

I don't know if it was strange. What I do find strange is how Huobi is now again behind Bitstamp (not sure Chinese sleeping accounts for this). Was yesterday a mere fluctuation in the price delta or have conditions changed again? I'm afraid noone truly knows, not even the Chinese.

It's that obvious, huh Cheesy

Yes. Short term trade, went in and out with a net zero. I'm still not 100% convinced we'll break through the ma200 tonight, but there's some real force behind this rally, I can't say otherwise, so being long makes more sense right now.

Frequently, I am torn about what to do exactly when more fiat comes available to me - and how to attempt to time the BTC market, to attempt to get the best advantage (or best bang for my bucks).

Yesterday, I had 100% of my crypto investment holdings into various cryptos (not fiat), and about 97% of that in BTC and about 3% in other cryptos.

Today, I had the equivalent of approximately 7.5% of crypto investments in fiat come available to me. Accordingly, I used 2.5% of that to buy BTC at $630 per BTC, and I was waiting to see what the BTC prices were going to do for my remaining 5% - hoping that prices would come down.

In the next 1 to 90 days, I am going to receive approximately the equivalent of 50% of my total BTC holdings in fiat that I will be able to invest into BTC (or another crypto) - although I remain uncertain about the exact timing of the receipt of the fiat or the exact amount, I speculate about what to do with that fiat when it comes and what its purchasing power will be when it arrives - especially since BTC prices are continuing to go up in the near term.

Since there are so many unknowns, I just prefer to wait, until some of the unknowns become known before taking action (I become real uneasy to attempt leveraging when there are too many unknowns). In essence, I consider that we only have the market dynamics of the time in front of us and the need to be able to read the tea leaves of the future from those dynamics - which seems to be nearly impossible, if we are NOT whales ourselves who can manipulate the market.

Quote from: Gingermod on June 02, 2014, 09:48:17 PM

http://www.btcpredictions.com/NewPredictor.php

We 720 soon? Grin

That is a very interesting site. I had NOT previously seen it.

The data seems to be inconsistent between clicking on the beta predictor and the other 24 hour, 5 day and 20 day charts.... I mean the beta live version seems to be a bit more bullish than the non-live version. In this regard, the live version predicts mid-$700s in the coming 24 hours; while the non-live versions predicts lower $700s in the coming 24 hours (though granted, the NON-live version seems to update on the hour, so seems to have NOT yet accounted for the price spike that occurred within the last hour).

The developer, Kevin asserts that short -term predictions are likely more accurate than long-term predictions, so long as there are NO major news events affecting the prediction outcomes. And, the algorithm seems to be based on historical performance, which we likely know is NOT necessarily a good predictor of future performance.

Further, his 20-day prediction seems to place BTC prices in the $300 to $400 territory, which seems very bearish and failing to take into account that BTC has been in a down trend for more than 6 months, which will more likely cause BTC prices to go up from here (our current price-point) rather than going down from here. I could NOT really gather from the website how he came to what seems to be a hair-brained idea that BTC prices are going to plummet anywhere below $600 in the coming month. Seems highly unlikely given the pent-up at-the-moment BTC situation.

NONETHELESS, I do like the concept of the site, if he is able to take into account more variables, then maybe the predictive aspect (especially longer term) may improve both long-term and short-term prediction(s).

Quote from: BBmodBB on June 02, 2014, 10:14:41 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on June 02, 2014, 10:12:14 PM

Quote from: BBmodBB on June 02, 2014, 10:11:29 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on June 02, 2014, 10:08:45 PM

Quote from: BBmodBB on June 02, 2014, 10:07:44 PM

Quote from: ChartBuddy on June 02, 2014, 10:00:26 PM

Explanation

<<<WATCH>>>

IMO:::WE ARE ABOUT TO GO+
#TEST THE /\$900zZz!!!! Cool

What are you smoking

did you not hear about DISH network? Huh

muuuhahahaahaha Wink

That's cute, is that why you think the price is moving?

/\BTC w/21million max shares,,
*cough* i meant coins out? LOL
Cool

====>$1000-$3000 BTC is the rumour by July 1st

That's a big-ass and very optimistic BTC price range that you are predicting - for BTC prices to either to be up by anywhere between 50% and 450% in less than 30 days.

I am NOT saying that such a prediction is NOT possible, but surely such a prediction seems fairly unlikely, in my current thinking.... maybe a less than 5% chance for the lower end of your prediction ($1,000) and a less than .05% chance for the upper end ($3,000).

Don't get me wrong, I would love for such an optimistic outcome to materialize (especially the upper end); however, I am inclined to believe that $710 to $850 range is more likely and realistic by July 1.

Currently, I am hypothesizing that there is a 30% to 60% chance that BTC prices will be in the $710 to $850 range on July 1 - but I have NO real source for my prediction besides my just watching the news and the BTC price trends.

Quote from: windjc on June 02, 2014, 10:46:02 PM

I am willing to say that I am on the edge of being officially bullish on this market.

It looks as if fresh fiat is coming into the bitcoin exchanges.

If this is correct, then 340 was the low and we will be coiling up for a major move sometime before the end of 2014.

The jury is still out on this one, but if we break 680 with ease in the next day or so and continue to rally up and consolidate at highs, then I will expect ATH before <$340

WindJC:

You are so charitable in your bullish remarks.... Cheesy

Quote from: Gingermod on June 02, 2014, 10:49:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 02, 2014, 10:48:24 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on June 02, 2014, 09:48:17 PM

http://www.btcpredictions.com/NewPredictor.php

We 720 soon? Grin

That is a very interesting site. I had NOT previously seen it.

The data seems to be inconsistent between clicking on the beta predictor and the other 24 hour, 5 day and 20 day charts.... I mean the beta live version seems to be a bit more bullish than the non-live version. In this regard, the live version predicts mid-$700s in the coming 24 hours; while the non-live versions predicts lower $700s in the coming 24 hours (though granted, the NON-live version seems to update on the hour, so seems to have NOT yet accounted for the price spike that occurred within the last hour).

The developer, Kevin asserts that short -term predictions are likely more accurate than long-term predictions, so long as there are NO major news events affecting the prediction outcomes. And, the algorithm seems to be based on historical performance, which we likely know is NOT necessarily a good predictor of future performance.

Further, his 20-day prediction seems to place BTC prices in the $300 to $400 territory, which seems very bearish and failing to take into account that BTC has been in a down trend for more than 6 months, which will more likely cause BTC prices to go up from here (our current price-point) rather than going down from here. I could NOT really gather from the website how he came to what seems to be a hair-brained idea that BTC prices are going to plummet anywhere below $600 in the coming month. Seems highly unlikely given the pent-up at-the-moment BTC situation.

NONETHELESS, I do like the concept of the site, if he is able to take into account more variables, then maybe the predictive aspect (especially longer term) may improve both long-term and short-term prediction(s).

historical performance has been a great predictor

I do NOT discount history completely, but in my thinking you gotta take history with a grain of salt b/c even though history may rhyme, it does NOT ever completely repeat b/c the variables of the present are going to be somewhat different... those differences need to be accounted for in order to arrive at more accurate predictive results - additionally, I tend to believe in free will... therefore human behavior always has some unpredictable aspect to it - even though it takes place within the realm of predictive possibilities. Bitcoin markets contain many human actors.

Quote from: edwardspitz on June 02, 2014, 10:54:49 PM

It predicted this for my birthday:

I was sorely disappointed that it didn't come true

Yes, that would have been nice - especially, if you could have predicted such a price change, accurately.

Quote from: thezerg on June 02, 2014, 11:44:03 PM

Breaking news! Mathecat desperately trying to justify his bad decisions! Read all about it in wall observer.

PS: bye bye mat the train has left the station

He can still grab a cab and race to get on the train at a later train station... NOT as good, but better than sitting at the train station with his bags and mopping. Cheesy

Quote from: JimboToronto on June 02, 2014, 11:51:11 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 02, 2014, 11:40:14 PM

Quick poll: Is there anyone here except MatTheCat, Jorge, Igorr who does not consider the log trendline to be indicative of future performance, and the price action of the past month or two to be reversion to the trendline?

Fonzie and Mah?

And maybe RandomPedestrian?

And mervinthepumpkinhead

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on June 02, 2014, 11:54:23 PM

Guys, it's simple really.

After months of bear market the trend reversal has come and we are simply going and returning to $1000, slow or fast doesn't matter (we are going up pretty fringgin' fast if you ask me) of course there are corrections, all bear traps. Just don't get shaken out (or ride the waves but be careful not to get left behind).

This is the mid-term trade that you should consider ->long.

If short term we have double tops, inverse cup and handles, head and shoulders with dick and balls, it doesn't matter, it's just a trap to make you look at the short term instead of the mid-long term.

You may be correct that we are NOT going to linger in this sub $1,000 territory for very long, yet my looking at the previous bubbles, it seems that BTC prices never gets stuck at any price point around the previous ATH. The BTC prices either linger below the previous ATH or it shoots quite a distance passed the previous ATH before returning down to some price point that is quite a bit higher than the previous ATH. Rinse and repeat... and for how long, who knows? Maybe at least a few more bubbles? hopefully? I would like to experience at least one bubble. Two would be nice, but I would settle with much contentment with experiencing just one bubble of the 5x to 10x range.

Quote from: aminorex on June 03, 2014, 12:03:09 AM

Thus, anyone who does not consider the log trendline indicative of probable future pricing is a fringe extremist.

Tell us how you really feel. Cheesy

Quote from: greenlion on June 03, 2014, 12:31:20 AM

Log trendline is the null hypothesis on this joint. Past performance blah blah blah is regurgitated generic pedantic crap. For the first time in human history we have an asset that follows self-reinforcing network effect growth, where the fundamentals themselves mathematically scream logistic function, yet somehow a logarithmic growth curve until saturation is supposed to be controversial? That's preposterous.

Greenlion, I am NOT sufficiently familiar with mathematical terms sufficiently to understand your point. Are you suggesting that the current models that suggest a 10x annual uptrend until we reach 50% market saturation and then a more leveled growth is too conservative?

I personally think that BTC should get higher growth rates in the beginning and then taper off ... yet NOT sure about the predictive growth rates exactly.. but 2x to 5X growth rates seem to be more sustainable than ongoing 10x rates... yet I understand why people are predicting 10X growth rates based on networking and exorbitant adoption of the people that comes through networking effects.

Quote from: nrd525 on June 03, 2014, 12:44:46 AM

Quote from: aminorex on June 02, 2014, 11:40:14 PM

Quick poll: Is there anyone here except MatTheCat, Jorge, Igorr who does not consider the log trendline to be indicative of future performance, and the price action of the past month or two to be reversion to the trendline?

Me and I'm pretty much all-in (not a huge position - but the majority of my liquid assets).

There is no way the log trend is going to hold. I'm predicting a relatively slower growth rate (with wide variance - but definitely below 1000%/year).

If you frame the problem like that, then I am in the nrd525 camp. I would think that growth rates in the 2X to 4X territory would be somewhat reasonable and sustainable... though I doubt that there is any kind of straight or exponential line b/c there could be events that cause greater variance, as you, nrd525, seem to be suggesting.

Quote from: shmadz on June 03, 2014, 01:08:05 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 03, 2014, 01:04:31 AM

Another quick poll: is there anyone here at all who does not believe that, by 2027, 1 BTC will buy all the wealth in the world? Wink

yep, me

welcome back prof, if you can keep it clean enough and stick to facts and stuff, I think the thread will welcome you back with open arms Grin

Yeah, but he is already starting out with bullshit nonsense questions that do NOT make any sense in real application.... too exaggerated a scenario. Surely, there are some people who are considerably fantastical, but one should NOT judge the whole bitcoin community as if we were all fantastical (or cult or religion, either)

Quote from: hyphymikey on June 03, 2014, 01:51:52 AM

Ask depth to 700 is stacking up. The bigger walls the harder they fall.

Are you really of the opinion that those walls are for real? Surely some of them may be for real, but they are easily pulled, as well.

Quote from: seleme on June 03, 2014, 05:05:03 AM

Quote from: mladen00 on June 03, 2014, 05:04:08 AM

1.7.2014 BTC value is X00 USD

x=?

Y?

y = 7.4

Quote from: Parazyd on June 03, 2014, 04:21:36 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 03, 2014, 04:17:36 PM

I'm working on phase 2.

Hopefully, phase 2 is gonna have a bigger effect than phase 1. Otherwise, he is gonna have to go to phase 3, or maybe back to phase 0?

Quote from: thezerg on June 03, 2014, 06:30:41 PM

Quote from: seleme on June 03, 2014, 06:24:03 PM

People loaning money in bull markets never stop to amaze me.

Clearly they think BTC will not appreciate more than .5% per day. However I think that the risk profile of money on an exchange is higher than BTC in a wallet and I do not think that these people are taking this into account.

If you can make a guaranteed .5% to 1% per day, then that is a pretty decent return on investment in any world.

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on June 03, 2014, 07:49:20 PM

So, 3-4 months of hodling and not listening to the trolls 'paid out'. Bought at 680, then the dump to 300s but hodled through and now almost back to zero Cheesy

but also bought some coins at 780 too but not as much as at 680.

you gotta go with your weighted averages, which would be somewhere between $680 and $780 (and closer to $680 from what you are saying... so maybe around $710).

I started at $1200, and my costs are about $600 per BTC, including fees. I have had some bad timing as well, in part based on logistics of fiat.... my average price per BTC is likely to go up considerably, since the price is going up and I have a fairly good size chunk of fiat on its way.. not sure when or the exact amount, but likely around 50% of my current total BTC dollars investment.

Quote from: U.S. SEC on June 03, 2014, 08:06:16 PM

Quote from: European Central Bank on June 03, 2014, 07:57:41 PM

Quote from: U.S. Treasury on June 03, 2014, 07:56:07 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on June 03, 2014, 07:53:46 PM

Why can't we just break $700 before it crashes again??? Why I ask?! Why?111!!1

Ps huobi orderbook extremely bearish. Crash to $600 imminent.

We don't want it to move pass yet, be prepared.

Speak for yourself, girlfriend.

Looks like it's a party!

I'm sure IMF and PBOC have some say in this. Grin

Quote from: akujin on June 04, 2014, 06:43:52 AM

Quote from: freebit13 on June 04, 2014, 06:36:51 AM

Is Shroombot on a dumping spree?

No.. It's functioning perfectly... Shroombot was design to do stupid things Grin

+1 That's shroomie for you. Him and his little dog bird avatar.

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 04, 2014, 07:36:54 PM

640?
NEVER AGAIN!

Where have we heard that before? Wink

About 20 or more posts, just disappeared off of the thread............. That really messes me up Angry

Quote from: keithers on June 05, 2014, 05:10:10 AM

Quote from: YipYip on June 05, 2014, 03:01:13 AM

Quote from: smoothie on June 05, 2014, 02:57:34 AM

I predict from now until the first week of August we will have at most 2 weekly red candles.

The rest will be green.

what time scale ? ... Daily ?

The time scale is per week...as he said at most 2 weekly red candles... right?

In any case, this sounds like a fairly bold prediction, in part b/c we are on the 5th green candle in a row. There are about 8 more weeks between now and the 1st week of august, so he is predicting 11 out of 13 green candles. Even though such a positive run is possible, especially given the general 6 month decline, yet sounds way too good to be true.

Quote from: ChrisML on June 05, 2014, 03:50:48 PM

Quote from: Krabby on June 05, 2014, 03:41:00 PM

Does anybody remember what happened on Nov 19th last year to make it swing from 755 to 378?

And in February... and April...

Does history repeats itself? Sometimes...

History NEVER repeats! It rhymes.

Quote from: keithers on June 05, 2014, 05:38:54 PM

$666 seems to still be a true resistance level. We keep making it just to about $666 and then falling back down. Often times, we cross it slightly before correcting back downward.

This constant discussion of $666 is pure nonsense and wasting valuable brain power... and attempts to achieve some kind of forced self-fulfilling view of the world.

Likely, there are more meaningful ways to discuss BTC price dynamics, rather than repeating NONsense 666 numerology superstitions that are NOT even reflected in recent bitcoin prices with any kind of precision.

In this regard, in essence for the past week or so, bitcoin prices on bitstamp have largely floated between $620 and $680, and in a fairly dynamic sense. There have been periodic episodes within this timeframe that bitcoin prices have been in the $660 arena - however, mostly, BTC prices, during this time frame, have NOT gravitated towards 666.. and even if they had been in the $660 arena, so fucking what? Who cares about this repeated theme of the $666 attraction?

Surely I like to have fun and everything, but isn't this 666 matter a little overplayed, and it seems like several of us, including myself by responding to the trending 666 topic, are wasting our brain processing power, to the extent that it exists, to be caught up in nonsense numerology random superstitions.

Quote from: Richy_T on June 05, 2014, 08:02:56 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 05, 2014, 07:46:20 PM

Surely I like to have fun and everything, but isn't this 666 matter a little overplayed, and it seems like several of us, including myself by responding to the trending 666 topic, are wasting our brain processing power, to the extent that it exists, to be caught up in nonsense numerology random superstitions.

Well....

Kill the heretic!!!

Now, you are talking!!!! But NOT me... Cheesy

Quote from: Richy_T on June 05, 2014, 09:34:24 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on June 05, 2014, 09:17:51 PM

Must be them sleepwalking Chinamen, eh?

I found some archival material of Jorge performing some early research into the Chinese Slumber Method

You can tell that this picture is a feigned Chinese slumber method b/c Jorge is giving us the finger, while he is supposedly slumbering.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 06, 2014, 12:41:45 AM

Quote from: Richy_T on June 05, 2014, 09:34:24 PM

I found some archival material of Jorge performing some early research into the Chinese Slumber Method

Not long ago, @fonzie kindly posted a pic of me at the KyotoCGGT2007 conference banquet, but he cropped out an important detail:

To vulgar Illuminati, that may look like an ordinary maiko-san, but the Fluorescenti will surely recognize the Bitcoin Goddess in plainclothes.

You see, that very night the Gods had convened in Japan to decide what would be the appropriate punishment for Pokemon, Tamagotchi, and Hello Kitty. Some wanted an army of Godzillas plus explosive meltdown of all nuclear reactors in the country, but in the end she convinced them to settle for just 3 and 1/2 meltdowns and a bitcoin exchange. (I had no idea at the time of what bitcoin was, so I thought that it was quite generous of them.)

I honestly do not know what she was doing at the conference banquet. Perhaps she is fond of old academics, for some reason. I have noticed that the price of bitcoin always dips when an old prof gets insulted or is made fun of. Like, right now.

Half of you is probably the most that any of us can take in any one sitting.....

And, your theory about the price going down seems far from founded. The price has been floating between $620 and $680 for more than a week, and before that, we were in the 500s and 400s and 300s. There are five weeks in a row of green weekly candles... It seems that the prices could likely adjust downward for a week or two... but ultimately, even the better half of you probably realizes the direction of bitcoin prices..... and that is.. UP.

Currently, I am thinking rocket could be delayed, but it is fairly certain to occur during 2014... likely prior to October, but NO surprise if it occurs earlier... just too much good news in bitcoin land, recently.

This current consolidation should NOT be hurting anything... and will likely make the upcoming surge to be more powerful, when it does take place.

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 06, 2014, 02:22:19 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on June 06, 2014, 02:15:15 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 06, 2014, 01:49:04 AM

just sayin...

DUH!

wtf did you think was gonna happen?

So a global currency dominated by individuals such as Goat and Risto...a scary thought in some respects, don't you think?

Goat own a lambo LTC and silver

Risto got goxed and spent half his coins on a castle

scary?

I am fairly bullish and all about bitcoin, and fairly skeptical about the monetary policy of the USA and other grand fiat currencies.

NONETHELESS, Bitcoin is NO where near ready to take over the world currency, payment system and storage of value. In 5 to 10 years, that may be a different story.

Surely, the USD has been engaging in really dangerous tactics since about 2007 / 2008; however, I believe that the whole fiat system with a dominant USD or some amalgamation of dominant fiats is going to hold at least another 5 years.

Before I studied into Bitcoin (which would have been before November 2013 - coincidentally right after the October 2013, US government shut down), I was thinking that the US government can screw up and screw around for another 20-30 years before the whole system is going to be coming down upon it... and part of my reason for projecting such a timeline in my thinking was because I could NOT really envision any real and/or meaningful alternatives. The USA Govt has the world by the knickers.

However, since I have been learning about bitcoin, I am thinking that the USA Govt timeline for manipulating the dollar and world systems is going to be more limited - maybe 5-10 years, depending upon the extent to which the USA govt can infiltrate, coopt and/or manipulate BTC. There is going to likely be some of the infiltration, cooptation and manipulation of BTC taking place and/or being attempted in the coming years, and the question will be how long that infiltration, cooptation and manipulation can last and whether alternative cryptos will evolve in order to adjust to such infiltration, cooptation and manipulation.

In sum, Bitcoin is NOT ready this year, but in 5 years -ish, maybe.

Quote from: shmadz on June 06, 2014, 03:24:39 AM

Quote from: aminorex on June 06, 2014, 03:13:49 AM

stuck at 660. number of the ~~bees~~ base?

660 is the new bottom Grin

jk of course, but we are still in "the channel"

of course, it's only a matter of time...

*edit* apologies for uber-bullish sentiment, but I'm listening to this right now and it's got me pumped!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wobiTJUoyLk <- it starts slow but give it a few minutes...

Some of the posts like yours cause me to project that it is fairly probable that BTC prices will remain in the current $620 to $680 channel for a few weeks.... and the channel will narrow... then it seems more likely that the break in BTC prices will be upwards, rather than downwards.

Quote from: aminorex on June 06, 2014, 03:46:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 06, 2014, 03:34:48 AM

the break in BTC prices will be upwards, rather than downwards.

~~Without altiloquative pleonasty I cannot render material the ultracrepidarian mordancy with which I esteem the prestidigitative prodigy of your quincunxical perspicacity in articulating the obvious.~~

duh!

Quote from: flynn on June 06, 2014, 07:59:20 AM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 06, 2014, 07:56:36 AM

Quote from: flynn on June 06, 2014, 07:54:12 AM

"What are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price?
Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis"

=> http://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.0268v1.pdf

I've posted this yesterday. It's a great read.

OOooops, sorry I missed it ...

Don't get me wrong, I do appreciate the article, and that the article shares a perspective regarding bitcoin, and I do NOT really claim to understand all of the points of the article.

In that regard, other people may come to conclusions that differ from my perusing the article.

When I read claims in the article, such as, the Chinese BTC market does NOT affect the USD bitcoin market, I give less credibility to the article, and I feel less inclined to thoroughly read such articles in close detail.

Also, this particular article claims that bitcoin is NOT a safe haven for storing value, so in that regard, the article seems inadequately account for diversification of assets investing (which many more sophisticated investors are going to diversify their value storage to some extent, and consider probabilities of pay outs for various classes of investments). Bitcoin may be risky, but as a diversified asset, there seems to be considerable possibilities for storing value and for paying off.

The article does NOT really get into much of the dynamics of the affects of the political and the regulatory attempts and the difficulties and potential underlying hostilities that have existed with bitcoin b/c of the difficulties of governments and or other status quo institutions, such as banks, in controlling the peer to peer nature of bitcoin. In this regard, the article lacks discussion of the threats to the status quo regarding potential wealth redistribution that is posed by the existence of bitcoin (and other crypto currencies).

I find too much emphasis and attempt to emphasize mathematics to achieve validity of claims, when in fact the mathematics of the dynamics of bitcoin need to be taken with a grain of salt, given the other political and other human dynamics that are involved in markets that are NOT strictly predictable in mathematic terms....

NONETHELESS, I do appreciate some of the mathematical discussions that are involved with Metcalfe's law.. and Metcalfe's law predicts some of the exponential potential of bitcoin pricing and value and utility based on adoption and the networking effect causing exponential growth b/c of increased bitcoin adoption.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law

I know several other participants in this thread are much more familiar than me about the significance of Metcalfe's law.

Though the article makes some mentions of increased interest in bitcoin, the article does NOT really get into any kind of specific discussion of the impact of metcalfe's law or the networking effect on the dynamics of bitcoin.

Additionally, even though this particular article is published on 6/2/14, some of its graphs and claims seem to focus on the dynamics of the bitcoin market between September 2011 and February 2014, which causes me some hesitation about thoroughness of the claims, even though that period does cover most of bitcoin's life, so far.

Quote from: Parazyd on June 06, 2014, 08:50:03 AM

As I've also posted, Metcalfe's law isn't quite good...

Though I am fairly good with logic and understanding various concepts that are presented with by using mathematical models. Sometimes I do get lost by some of the detailed and technical math b/c I have NOT received formal training in various higher level mathematical concepts or problem solving.

Nonetheless, I do appreciate some of the principles of Metcalfe's law to the extent that it appears to be describing increased value and exponential growth that is based on networking and adoption increasing which will cause a considerable amount of growth based on the sheer fact that 300 nodes is more than 100 times more valuable than 3... but these measurements of value do NOT need to be exact in order to understand the concept that increased adoption of bitcoin is going to bring considerably greater increases in value to bitcoin for some time to come, so long as the adoption continues to increase.. then there is going to be various rippling effects caused by that and increased utility and more willingness of individuals to pay more for the utility of the expanding network.

Quote from: Parazyd on June 06, 2014, 09:38:44 AM

Quote from: edwardspitz on June 06, 2014, 09:37:15 AM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 06, 2014, 09:17:36 AM

Quote from: medialab101 on June 06, 2014, 09:14:08 AM

We're about to find out if this 1,200 BTC wall is real on Stamps

Might as well buy it all. One would profit from it for sure... I've spent all my Bitstamp fiat these days, will have to sell some to buy more. Just don't know what would be the right time. These days are so dead.

Who knows... maybe the Chinese will buy that wall for us.

There was some talk about a person who's creating those walls so he (or she) can buy up all the offers below his and profit that way.

My understanding is that the wall placer does NOT necessarily personally profit by participating in orders below the wall, but instead profits when s/he pulls the wall and then is able to cause considerable movement above the wall and the wall may have deterred some from placing orders above the wall.. and thus the wall placer is able to manipulate larger movement in BTC prices by removing the wall.... especially removing it in cases in which momentum is then created.

I am sure that there are other ways to profit as well from such walls.. including causing the prices to move in the opposite direction for some time.

Quote from: YipYip on June 06, 2014, 10:57:22 AM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 06, 2014, 10:21:54 AM

Quote from: kurious on June 06, 2014, 10:10:02 AM

Quote from: Ghris on June 06, 2014, 10:05:57 AM

Quote from: rebuilder on June 06, 2014, 10:02:52 AM

Quote from: Ghris on June 06, 2014, 09:57:37 AM

The best growth is a stable 0.5-2.0% per month I would think. A huge climb will shun people as much as a huge dip.

about 26% yearly growth, then? So far it's been rather a lot higher than that.

Yes it is, as a startup we had huge growth. Helped bitcoin get known to the public. I think we've (allmost) come to the point where bitcoin needs to proof it can be a trustworhy currency and a valuable asset.

Sorry - but Bitcoin doesn't give a shit

And huge growth will bring more money to market. Stability is a fair way off with such a relatively small market cap.

Yup. If we hit $5000 a coin tomorrow, it can't be bad in any way.

I think we will hit stability with 5-10k per btc ..as it wil mean we have found our place in teh IRL world

real money will pour in and remove teh ability of lone operators to fuck with us as they have in teh past

Currently 1 million or 200k leveraged can move the market ....this is totally insane compared to and DOW or Forex stock,currency

We need a 10x market cap to bring the stability that teh mainstream mercantile world needs & craves Cheesy

Surely we are in agreement about the larger the market cap the better, and the more difficult to manipulate as the price per BTC goes up.

I was thinking that the price per btc would need to be in the 50k to 100k arena to achieve fairly decent stability. That would be around a 750Billion to 1.5 trillion market cap.

A $10K per BTC would put the market cap around $150 billion, which just does NOT seem large enough to avert considerable price manipulations.

In other words, it seems that for some time BTC is going to have considerable price manipulations, but the price manipulations will become more difficult with a larger market cap.

With the proliferation of the dollar and some evil players have really enormous reserves of dollars, and while these dollars are still the standard and acceptable.. very evil manipulation can occur b/c some of these very large and evil players have so many dollars that they do NOT give a flying fuck about the dollars that they have (meaning that they will spend a lot of those dollars.. b/c they have so large a surplus) so long as they can prevent others from accumulating wealth.

Quote from: dreamspark on June 06, 2014, 11:38:23 AM

Quote from: fred1111 on June 06, 2014, 11:30:59 AM

Whatever the direction this takes, it's going to be brutal

I personally don't think is will take a direction for a few days. Can easily see this consolidating until next week. Although we have been getting weekend pumps recently.

One funny dynamic that i noticed is that frequently, when people begin to describe a pattern, then that pattern NO longer will take place. It is like someone is relying on people expecting a pattern, and then manipulate to change the pattern...

Maybe that comment is too conspiratorial, but I have seen several proclamations of patterns... that do NOT always play out too well.

Quote from: aminorex on June 06, 2014, 03:18:31 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 06, 2014, 09:07:47 AM

...Metcalfe...exponential...

The N^2 approximation is called "quadratic". The "exponential" factor derives from modeling N = r*exp(t)+k, for some r and k. N^2 is from metcalfe. Thus the exponential component is not derived from metcalfe.

Thanks for that, and it probably remains fairly clear that I am mixing my mathematical concepts to make various points b/c I am NOT really very well studied in mathematical models (even though, frequently, I understand english and logic), and my point in bringing up both Metcalfe and exponential factor in one fell swoop was to indicate that the article that I was referring to in my earlier post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg7161808#msg7161808) seemed to be deficient b/c it was talking about various mathematical concepts without discussing networking effect of bitcoin nor exponential growth dynamics that seem to be important in conceptualizing the growth of bitcoin.

Quote from: stan.distortion on June 06, 2014, 05:39:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 06, 2014, 05:03:34 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on June 06, 2014, 11:38:23 AM

Quote from: fred1111 on June 06, 2014, 11:30:59 AM

Whatever the direction this takes, it's going to be brutal

I personally don't think is will take a direction for a few days. Can easily see this consolidating until next week. Although we have been getting weekend pumps recently.

One funny dynamic that i noticed is that frequently, when people begin to describe a pattern, then that pattern NO longer will take place. It is like someone is relying on people expecting a pattern, and then manipulate to change the pattern...

Maybe that comment is too conspiratorial, but I have seen several proclamations of patterns... that do NOT always play out too well.

Very likely. Bots and the methods they use have just about the biggest R and D budgets in software development and daytraders will be a prime target for them. Put a nice, clear pattern on the charts until a sizeable amount of money is following it and then turn it the wrong way, the daytraders have to get it right nearly every time but the whale only has to get it right once.

Exactamente!!!

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on June 06, 2014, 06:56:41 PM

Quote from: hyphymikey on June 06, 2014, 06:50:56 PM

Does anyone have an updated chart with the overlays of the previous bubbles and the current line on it? I have no clue how to make one.

More important question is - why would every bubble look the same?

To me, it seems that Hyphymikey is referring to the overall trendline and its upward direction from bubble to bubble, and in that regard, Hyphymikey does NOT seem to be referring to the price pattern of any particular bubble resembling another but instead, he may be referring to the timeliness of when an investor or a HODLR could reasonably expect the next bubble to take place.

We can use an overall trendline to see past performance and to gauge probabilities of another bubble occurring while at the same time realizing that there will likely exist some degree of variance between bubbles, in terms of their size, their intensity, their timing and/or even whether they are explosive or gradual.

Even though frequently posters will accuse other posters of being naive in their outlook (their optimism or pessimism) towards bitcoin; however, a large majority of us realize that the overall specifics of BTC price performance retains a considerable amount of variance.

Quote from: Cassius on June 06, 2014, 07:01:20 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on June 06, 2014, 06:56:41 PM

Quote from: hyphymikey on June 06, 2014, 06:50:56 PM

Does anyone have an updated chart with the overlays of the previous bubbles and the current line on it? I have no clue how to make one.

More important question is - why would every bubble look the same?

Surface tension.
Less facetiously, there is a classic bubble progression - Google "Anatomy of a Bubble". Bitcoin does seem to do it well for some reason.

Whether you describe upward price projection as a bubble or as a series of bubbles, past performance of rhyming of patterns does NOT indicate that the future performance patterns are going to follow similarly.... though there is some eeriness to the similarity of the bubble patterns.

Oh yeah, and by the way, it seems that description of bubble has various negative connotations, even suggesting that bitcoin is a short-lived phenomenon... which really does NOT seem to be the case.

And frequently, if we look at a bubble pattern, described in Anatomy of a Bubble, some people will question whether the anatomy applies to bitcoin, and if it does, then where exactly is the current status of bitcoin on the bubble chart. Much easier to look back historically than to project ahead, and it is even more difficult to project ahead with bitcoin if you are assuming bitcoin is a bubble or incorporating ideas that the current status of bitcoin is that it was in a bubble. On the other hand, if you are projecting that a bitcoin bubble is coming, then your predictive results will be more likely to take place, in my thinking.

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 06, 2014, 08:20:26 PM

scary wall probably has regenerative shields Undecided

Hey Adam,

Speaking of regeneration, what about regenerating a new poll? Cheesy

Quote from: dnaleor on June 07, 2014, 10:01:41 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on June 07, 2014, 09:36:26 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on June 07, 2014, 09:21:00 AM

Seems like we are below support... This is not looking bullish to me. Hopefully just a pause in the rally

edited**refer to original for graph hate the wasted space scrolling**-Davyd05

Sitting just below my 38.6% @ 654 3D fib lvl retracing from the peak of dec to the low of april.

Perhaps a calm weekend with a strong weekday, or sideways as confidence builds at higher price points

sideways would be OK for me, but we are also below the decending resistance line...
(If that line would become support, a sideways trend would be the outcome.

I agree sideways for a few weeks may be healthy... b/c at some point, the public and various new investors and/or peeps on the sideline are reconsidering their prior bearish sentiments.. then the conversion and transition into bull status may be better to take place slowly.

By the way, I believe that historically, it has been more common for weekends to be slower and lower volume and dump rather than rising periods, so in that regard the last two weekends of rallies were probably more flukes than anything.

There are probably a lot of long time posters here that can say more particularly if they believe weekends to be a dumping time or a pumping time and if there is pumping, it would be more in line with the very end of the weekend rather than the beginning or the middle of the weekend.

Quote from: rebuilder on June 07, 2014, 12:01:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 07, 2014, 10:52:54 AM

By the way, I believe that historically, it has been more common for weekends to be slower and lower volume and dump rather than rising periods, so in that regard the last two weekends of rallies were probably more flukes than anything.

There are probably a lot of long time posters here that can say more particularly if they believe weekends to be a dumping time or a pumping time and if there is pumping, it would be more in line with the very end of the weekend rather than the beginning or the middle of the weekend.

Why rely on belief? Historical market data is freely available, any trend like the weekend slump should be visible there.

I was quickly describing my perception... which may or may NOT be correct, as you noted, which is different from looking up the answer and coming to an answer based on that. Surely, as you also seem to strongly imply, looking up the data could be more reliable, so long as a person can understand the data sufficiently in order to make such a conclusion.. like looking at volume, and, if technical reliability is what is being sought.

I was stating my perception and seeking similar response(s)... concerning perceptions.. that may even be longer in time or more accurate than mine.

Quote from: simmo77 on June 07, 2014, 12:57:24 PM

Quote from: faalhaas on June 07, 2014, 12:36:53 PM

I don't know dick about bullish or bear sjit.
But are we starting another rise ? pretty bored.

Well I don't either, but it's pretty bullish around here at least at the moment... Check the poll results.

The resident bears haven't posted for a while, and the resident trolls even seem to have given up (for the moment).

This is Bitcoin though, so anything could happen. Roll Eyes

knock on wood... he he he... bears and trolls like to take weekends off too, once in a while.

Quote from: gentlemand on June 07, 2014, 05:54:28 PM

Quote from: MahaRamana on June 07, 2014, 05:08:13 PM

Quote from: Nightowlace on June 07, 2014, 04:39:16 PM

IMO we are at a point where we have a lot of high net worth, major corps, and invesent funds investing in Bitcoin. The days of huge swings, massive outbreaks, and downward spirals are over. I think we will see peaks and valleys in the range of 2-3% possibly at a faster pace than traditional stocks rise and fall but like I said to many major players now have too much to lose not to control the price. Not only that but if more retailers are to enter the "accepting" bitcoin game then the price has to show signs of long term stability and I think that's what we are seeing here. Long term investment growth, price stability for retailers to enter bitcoin, wider acceptance by the general public who don't have the knowledge or skills to enter a highly volatile market.

That's just my guess, he'll we could be at $1,000 on Monday. Who the hell knows.

A lot of high net worth, major corps and investment funds are investing into a 8 Billion capsize, very little of which is for sale ?

Such entities investing in bitcoin in a conservative manner would bring the price at least 100 times higher.
Such entities investing in bitcoin aggressively would bring the price about 1000 times higher.

These entities still have not touched bitcoin with a pole stick.

If any big money has had a dabble it's been far away from any exchange and so there's a negligible effect on price. We're still a long, long way from them arriving in any numbers.

I keep thinking about his, and sooner or later those off exchange transactions are going to hit the exchanges, no? especially when it seems that we have increases in adoption, and then people gotta get their coins from somewhere. The ones selling off the exchanges have to replenish.. likely miners.. but then still if new people are coming in then there is more and more demand.

I agree that institutional investors have NOT come into bitcoin in any meaningful way.. there may be some dabbling at best, but at some point there's gotta be a skyrocketting effect, whether this week or two months from now.

Quote from: derpinheimer on June 07, 2014, 08:25:25 PM

Quote from: faalhaas on June 07, 2014, 08:18:24 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on June 07, 2014, 08:15:44 PM

Small rally incoming, me thinks.

Why hunnypon ?

Just a quick analysis. I only post it to see if I was right later. (and why not share it?! HUH?!)

And if there is a rally, will it be up, or down?

Quote from: Miz4r on June 07, 2014, 09:08:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 07, 2014, 08:38:53 PM

And if there is a rally, will it be up, or down?

Sideways rally of course.

That statement is oxymoronic, and humorous at the same time. Cheesy

Quote from: oda.krell on June 07, 2014, 10:54:02 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 07, 2014, 09:54:12 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on June 07, 2014, 09:14:07 PM

I don't know where the 'about 1 year' figure comes from that I keep hearing. Is there any substance to it?

That is about how long it will take for ETPs to list and build their first bubble.

I understood that much, that's the reason I keep hearing. I'm wondering, why 1 year? I haven't been around long enough to know what the usual time is for an ETP (ETC in our case, I guess) to be approved and listed? What about the unusual ones, which I recon a Bitcoin based one could be.

I have to rely on information like this, and I don't like it.

Another problem with the information (article) that you link is that it is nearly one year old - which is an eternity in bitcoin land.

Yet, historically, it appears that there can be quite a bit of variance in the length of times to approve the trading of complex assets, and even reversals of previous approvals. Even though the Winklevoss twins were talking about their exchange in mid-2013, they did NOT actually apply for the approval of the exchange until late 2013... so one more year from NOW does NOT seem to be out of the question regarding reasonable expectations.

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on June 08, 2014, 10:14:25 AM

I bought a lot of PPC. Everyone who feels hatred towards me, should dump all their PPC to hurt me.

Since you seem to be a troll, how could we rely upon anything that you say? For example, you may be providing misinformation.

Quote from: wachtwoord on June 08, 2014, 11:42:55 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on June 08, 2014, 10:54:27 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 08, 2014, 10:29:04 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on June 08, 2014, 10:14:25 AM

I bought a lot of PPC. Everyone who feels hatred towards me, should dump all their PPC to hurt me.

Since you seem to be a troll, how could we rely upon anything that you say? For example, you may be providing misinformation.

I had my say. Now it's your turn to do whatever you think is best.

Lol, ignore it is. And I already sold my PPC for BTC when PPC peaked.

At various points over the last 7 month, i have made various fairly small purchases of alt coins through BTC-e. In total, I bought about 2.5 BTC worth of the 7 alt coins that are listed on BTC e. I have just waited, and hoped that they would go up, and each one of them has performed much worse than BTC. Currently, if I were to cash all of them out, I would probably get a little less than 1 BTC.

After witnessing this depreciation, I was thinking that I would wait for the next boom in BTC prices and then see if the various alts will appreciate along with BTC or appreciate at a higher rate than BTC, at a certain point. Then I would cash out as a whole at the time that the Alts appreciate higher than BTC.

Given the proliferation of a large number of other alts, I am beginning to have my doubts that the ones listed on BTC e are going to go through any kind of considerable appreciation phase. Accordingly, fairly frequently, in recent days, I have been thinking that maybe, just maybe it would be better to just cut my losses on these various alts. On the other hand, I could just HODL all of them, in the rare event that one of them may take off and become the silver to BTC's gold,,,,,, HM? what a dilemma!!!

Quote from: faalhaas on June 08, 2014, 12:50:59 PM

Quote from: deadley on June 08, 2014, 12:48:09 PM

Quote from: Krabby on June 08, 2014, 12:25:33 PM

I like this chart a lot.

https://www.tradingview.com/i/5G67X1xt

very nice, hope it will just true and Bitcoin price will be skyrocket.

How many days before a pump do you think?
I think in less then 5 work days

.

The June 2014 chart shows about 30 days worth of flat.. so the next projected upward momentum is early to mid July, according to the projection in the chart...

Sounds reasonable, yet we could get the rally sooner or later than the projection...I doubt that bitcoin going to be very precise in its price timeline /performance.

Quote from: feomat on June 08, 2014, 03:57:55 PM

this "stabilisation" period could be good but it could also mean weak hands maybe sell their stacks caused by fear of low volume

There are NOT too many weak hands left - most of them already got out, one or two months ago. In other words, there may be a few weak hands, but likely NOT too many.

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 17, 2013, 03:40:48 AM

sorry for all the confusion guys.
i will not be deleting any posts here
this is just the new thread because the old was was just too big.

This post is interesting for a couple of reasons:

1) clarification of Adam's philosophy - NOT intending to delete posts;

and

2) raises concerns that maybe Adam will start a new thread - B/c this one is getting "too big." What is "too big?"

Quote from: oda.krell on June 09, 2014, 08:58:05 AM

Possibly (hidden) bullish div setting up:

In any case, interesting times ahead.

About 1/3 of my lump sum fiat has arrived in my account... about $20K. I'm thinking to split this fiat into 3 purchases of 10BTC each. So If I buy the first 10BTC, $648 is the rate on coinbase. Surely, if I can rest assured that the price is gonna get cheaper, then I will wait to buy more, but I get too nervous waiting.

No one ever really knows for sure where the price is going to go... and we gotta be careful about being greedy.... so if I buy the first 10 BTC, then go to sleep, wake up see where the price is and maybe buy the next 10 BTC? Then wait a few hours and then buy the next 10BTC? That's about what I believe I can get for $20K, at the current price..

Quote from: SirChiko on June 09, 2014, 09:39:46 AM

What caused te next drop? Aren't we supposed to head up? Undecided

Personally, i doubt that anyone really knows... we have consolidation that goes on for a while.. and pushes by some to bring the price down .... but yes, at any moment, we could get some solid fairy god mother whales that cause the price to go up, rather than down.... we could be in this down or flat momentum for a few weeks, which could then cause a dissuading pressure and then further downward pressure... NONETHELESS, ultimately we are going to have an upward rocket.. it is just a matter of when., whether this week or 1 or 2 months from now...

Quote from: blatchcorn on June 09, 2014, 10:25:42 AM

This is simply a mini-bear trap before the jump to $1k. At which the price will be sticky for the most of this year until a mega rally to $10k

That's kind of in the ballpark of my thinking too.. though I am thinking that we will float in the $750 to $850 range for a while.. and then BTC prices will shoot up to about $4-5K, then come back down to around $2k.. before the next phase to $10K-ish - which may be mid 2015-ish

Quote from: oda.krell on June 09, 2014, 10:51:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 10:37:25 AM

Quote from: blatchcorn on June 09, 2014, 10:25:42 AM

This is simply a mini-bear trap before the jump to $1k. At which the price will be sticky for the most of this year until a mega rally to $10k

That's kind of in the ballpark of my thinking too.. though I am thinking that we will float in the $750 to $850 range for a while.. and then BTC prices will shoot up to about $4-5K, then come back down to around $2k.. before the next phase to $10K-ish - which may be mid 2015-ish

y'all seem to be quoting straight from the various time series linear regression extrapolations that make the rounds in here... to quote the great chodpaba:

Personally, I am NOT trying to make anything happen. I am just making a prediction.. there is a difference between trying to make something happen and just predicting what you think will happen.

At the same time, I am NOT betting the farm on my best guess of a prediction, b/c I do NOT invest in that kind of balls to the walls fashion... My assets are somewhat diversified with all new investment funds going towards bitcoin... rather than going towards stock (which would have been my investment had I NOT researched into bitcoin).

Bedtime for me, now.

I just bought 10BTC, and maybe I will buy another 10 in the morning... or maybe later in the day... depending upon how I feel... At this point, I would rather see down, rather than up, but my 10BTC hedges in the event that prices go up while I am sleeping.

Quote from: edwardspitz on June 09, 2014, 11:07:29 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 11:03:36 AM

Bedtime for me, now.

I just bought 10BTC, and maybe I will buy another 10 in the morning... or maybe later in the day... depending upon how I feel... At this point, I would rather see down, rather than up, but my 10BTC hedges in the event that prices go up while I am sleeping.

We'll give you a call if shit hits the fan, but so far it looks like we are recovering

I just saw that there is a new alarm feature on Bitcoinwisdom. That site is awesome.

Actually, I use the alarm in bitcoin ticker on my iphone during the day.. and also the alarm in zero block on my iphone.

However, I just tried out this alarm in bitcoin wisdom, and actually this may be better for when I am sleeping - so long as I am next to my computer b/c I could NOT figure out any easy way to select and choose my alarms on my iphone... they are either all on or they are all off, and I may be interested in hearing about bitcoin prices, but i do not want to get a text alert, phone alert, e-mail alert and/or some other category of alert that are turned on when I turn on my alarms on my iphone.

Quote from: madmat on June 09, 2014, 11:29:28 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 11:03:36 AM

Bedtime for me, now.

I just bought 10BTC, and maybe I will buy another 10 in the morning... or maybe later in the day... depending upon how I feel... At this point, I would rather see down, rather than up, but my 10BTC hedges in the event that prices go up while I am sleeping.

Each time I send some fiat to my favorite exchange, I can't wait more than 2 days before converting it to bitcoin. Always afraid of price skyrocketing before I buy. It seems I am not the only one.

I found a solution, if the trend is bearish, I make a trailing order.

So far, I have been buying through Coinbase, which seems to be the cheapest solution for me to obtain BTC. So far, Coinbase does NOT allow the creation of orders, otherwise I would create orders in order that I do NOT need to watch the price so much in attempt to time my buys.

Quote from: gizmoh on June 09, 2014, 12:25:25 PM

Quote from: madmat on June 09, 2014, 12:08:13 PM

Quote

I hope you are right

that would be great

Too many people here are not patient enough to get rich. Just wait and hodl.

Bitcoin = The Ultimate Get Rich Quick Scheme. Roll Eyes

There are a lot of get rich quick schemes out there. Bitcoin is only partially a get rich quick scheme (if you want to call it that). It may be "ultimate" merely b/c it seems to have a very high probability of reaching that objective for the masses... those who find out about bitcoin and act upon it.

There are likely other good places to put one's money as well, so long as the investor finds out about those other get rich quick schemes.

Quote from: bangersdad on June 09, 2014, 06:03:22 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 05:55:54 PM

Quote from: madmat on June 09, 2014, 11:29:28 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 11:03:36 AM

Bedtime for me, now.

I just bought 10BTC, and maybe I will buy another 10 in the morning... or maybe later in the day... depending upon how I feel... At this point, I would rather see down, rather than up, but my 10BTC hedges in the event that prices go up while I am sleeping.

Each time I send some fiat to my favorite exchange, I can't wait more than 2 days before converting it to bitcoin. Always afraid of price skyrocketing before I buy. It seems I am not the only one.

I found a solution, if the trend is bearish, I make a trailing order.

So far, I have been buying through Coinbase, which seems to be the cheapest solution for me to obtain BTC. So far, Coinbase does NOT allow the creation of orders, otherwise I would create orders in order that I do NOT need to watch the price so much in attempt to time my buys.

Try this:

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.thanksmister.coinbasetrader

FEATURES:
★ Buy or Sell Bitcoin with a Market, Limit, or Trailing Limit Order
★ Optional passcode requirement to place orders
★ Pause, Stop, Restart orders
★ Execute multiple orders at the same time.
★ View order history, account information or bitcoin exchange data
★ Receive price and order notifications
★ Keep trying to place orders during rolling limits and exchange rate changes
★ Settings for prices displayed, notifications, and orders
★ Mock orders to test your buying and selling strategy
*There is now no additional cost for accessing the premium features, its free for all. If you previously purchased the upgrade and would like a refund, send email to mister@thanksmister.com with your order number. However, we do appreciate any contribution to the ongoing development efforts!
____________
SECURITY:
The application does not have access to your Coinbase credentials. The login process occurs through the Coinbase web site (using your 2-factor authentication). The application then receives authorization only to buy and sell bitcoins, it does not have permission to send or receive bitcoins. In addition, the application features an optional pin required to place trades.

That looks like a fairly awesome app for Android users. I have an IPhone, so there is no iphone version. Maybe someday soon Apple will allow the return of some of these kinds of apps to the ITunes store?

ADAM::::::

OP::::::

I believe you made a mistake in the poll... it goes from $600s to $500s....

Also, sometimes it can be very difficult to pin down a prediction of an exact price, especially if guestimating in between two price points.... what about using ranges instead of set price points? Either way, I will do my best to guestimate and to vote.

Quote from: findftp on June 09, 2014, 06:33:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 06:31:52 PM

That looks like a fairly awesome app for Android users. I have an IPhone, so there is no iphone version. Maybe someday soon Apple will allow the return of some of these kinds of apps to the ITunes store?

In case you missed the news, they already allow bitcoin apps again.
Now it is up to the developers.

YES>>>> I saw some of the new articles about Apple re-allowing some of the crypto-currency apps (possibly applying to bitcoin transmittal and storage apps).

Accordingly, I have been searching the Apple Itunes store for "new" or "renewed" bitcoin apps. Initially, I thought that the Coinbase and Blockchain app would re-emerge in the store (since they were already there in December 2013 and March 2014 respectively), and then probably we would witness some other apps in the ITunes store... such as the cool Coinbase related app that you pointed out (Coinbase Trader).... however, so far, NO new or returning apps have appeared in the ITunes store.

Certainly, there has been some statements of optimism in the bitcoin space concerning this news concerning Apple; however, I remain of the belief that the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and I will believe it when I see certain kinds of bitcoin apps (such as wallets and transmitting apps) reappear in the ITunes store. Crossing my fingers - hoping for the best.

Quote from: BRADLEYPLOOF on June 09, 2014, 06:34:18 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 06:31:52 PM

That looks like a fairly awesome app for Android users. I have an IPhone, so there is no iphone version. Maybe someday soon Apple will allow the return of some of these kinds of apps to the ITunes store?

They are...just gotta develop it or ask the dev of the app to release it to Apple...

Some bitcoin / crypto currency apps were already developed and in the ITunes store, such as Coinbase and Blockchain apps, and they were removed from the Apple app store in December 2013 and April 2014 respectively.

I surmise that the previously approved apps would return sooner than those that had NOT yet been approved... but who knows... Certainly, lots of Iphone users and Apple aficionados are watching this issue - and hoping for actual opening up of this Apple apps permission issue, at least in regard to Bitcoin and potentially other crypto currencies.

Quote from: madmat on June 09, 2014, 06:45:13 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 05:55:54 PM

Quote from: madmat on June 09, 2014, 11:29:28 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 11:03:36 AM

Bedtime for me, now.

I just bought 10BTC, and maybe I will buy another 10 in the morning... or maybe later in the day... depending upon how I feel... At this point, I would rather see down, rather than up, but my 10BTC hedges in the event that prices go up while I am sleeping.

Each time I send some fiat to my favorite exchange, I can't wait more than 2 days before converting it to bitcoin. Always afraid of price skyrocketing before I buy. It seems I am not the only one.

I found a solution, if the trend is bearish, I make a trailing order.

So far, I have been buying through Coinbase, which seems to be the cheapest solution for me to obtain BTC. So far, Coinbase does NOT allow the creation of orders, otherwise I would create orders in order that I do NOT need to watch the price so much in attempt to time my buys.

I buy on kraken, fees are 0,20% and withdraw is 0,0005btc. This is cheap. But I am in eurozone and they have volume, not sure USD volume is sufficient to make good buys.

From your description, those fees seem better than what Coinbase has been providing. Coinbase is 1% to buy BTC and 1% to sell. Plus $.15 per transaction.

Coinbase's prices are also usually within a few dollars of the Bitstamp price, and frequently, it seems impossible to take advantage, exactly, of the most extreme BTC price fluctuations of Bitstamp b/c of the seemingly delayed responsiveness of Coinbase's pricing.

I am looking forward to receiving an invitation from Circle.com, and to see how that plays out. Since they are proclaiming to have zero transactional fees, it will be interesting to see what kinds of restrictions that they are going to put in place in order to disincentivize China-type high volume and frequent trading.

Quote from: ejinte on June 09, 2014, 07:50:39 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 07:43:15 PM

Quote from: findftp on June 09, 2014, 06:33:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 06:31:52 PM

That looks like a fairly awesome app for Android users. I have an IPhone, so there is no iphone version. Maybe someday soon Apple will allow the return of some of these kinds of apps to the ITunes store?

In case you missed the news, they already allow bitcoin apps again.
Now it is up to the developers.

YES>>>> I saw some of the new articles about Apple re-allowing some of the crypto-currency apps (possibly applying to bitcoin transmittal and storage apps).

Accordingly, I have been searching the Apple Itunes store for "new" or "renewed" bitcoin apps. Initially, I thought that the Coinbase and Blockchain app would re-emerge in the store (since they were already there in December 2013 and March 2014 respectively), and then probably we would witness some other apps in the ITunes store... such as the cool Coinbase related app that you pointed out (Coinbase Trader).... however, so far, NO new or returning apps have appeared in the ITunes store.

Certainly, there has been some statements of optimism in the bitcoin space concerning this news concerning Apple; however, I remain of the belief that the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and I will believe it when I see certain kinds of bitcoin apps (such as wallets and transmitting apps) reappear in the ITunes store. Crossing my fingers - hoping for the best.

Circle (or similar) translated in every language and some form off facebook integration would be great!

My understanding regarding the initial Circle.com roll out is that it is ONLY going to be serving customers with USA banking accounts, and as we all likely realize, USA - centric businesses do NOT tend to be too quick in recognizing any kind of need for other languages, other than English.

On the other hand, to give appropriate props to Circle, Circle does seem to have international aspirations... accordingly, it will likely be expanding its reach outside of the USA in coming years... but, I anticipate that it is focusing on the USA to be its initial lucrative market.. and means to get its feet wet in the bitcoin space... and then will likely attempt to expand "USA acceptable" practices on a global level (maybe with some local specific tinkering here and there). Maybe, for good or for bad, Circle views itself as the McD's of bitcoin? Cheesy

M

REMEMBER THAT: You heard it here, first, maybe we can name-change Circle to "McC's"?

Quote from: zimmah on June 09, 2014, 08:49:56 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 08:45:12 PM

Quote from: ejinte on June 09, 2014, 07:50:39 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 07:43:15 PM

Quote from: findftp on June 09, 2014, 06:33:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 06:31:52 PM

That looks like a fairly awesome app for Android users. I have an IPhone, so there is no iphone version. Maybe someday soon Apple will allow the return of some of these kinds of apps to the ITunes store?

In case you missed the news, they already allow bitcoin apps again.
Now it is up to the developers.

YES>>>> I saw some of the new articles about Apple re-allowing some of the crypto-currency apps (possibly applying to bitcoin transmittal and storage apps).

Accordingly, I have been searching the Apple Itunes store for "new" or "renewed" bitcoin apps. Initially, I thought that the Coinbase and Blockchain app would re-emerge in the store (since they were already there in December 2013 and March 2014 respectively), and then probably we would witness some other apps in the ITunes store... such as the cool Coinbase related app that you pointed out (Coinbase Trader).... however, so far, NO new or returning apps have appeared in the ITunes store.

Certainly, there has been some statements of optimism in the bitcoin space concerning this news concerning Apple; however, I remain of the belief that the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and I will believe it when I see certain kinds of bitcoin apps (such as wallets and transmitting apps) reappear in the ITunes store. Crossing my fingers - hoping for the best.

Circle (or similar) translated in every language and some form off facebook integration would be great!

My understanding regarding the initial Circle.com roll out is that it is ONLY going to be serving customers with USA banking accounts, and as we all likely realize, USA - centric businesses do NOT tend to be too quick in recognizing any kind of need for other languages, other than English.

On the other hand, to give appropriate props to Circle, Circle does seem to have international aspirations... accordingly, it will likely be expanding its reach outside of the USA in coming years... but, I anticipate that it is focusing on the USA to be its initial lucrative market.. and means to get its feet wet in the bitcoin space... and then will likely attempt to expand "USA acceptable" practices on a global level (maybe with some local specific tinkering here and there). Maybe, for good or for bad, Circle views itself as the McD's of bitcoin? Cheesy

M

REMEMBER THAT: You heard it here, first, maybe we can name-change Circle to "McC's"?

Good thing circle is useless anyway, but i really dislike any kind of company that limits their service to the USA. Especially internet companies which have no reason to exclude the rest of the world.

I believe that they are attempting a certain marketing philosophy to build confidence of the typical USA consumer within compliance of the complicated and frequently contradictory USA regulatory regime... and if they can conquer the USA market, then the company will be stronger to push for global expansion of its business model. This approach does NOT necessarily seem to be xenophobic in this case - especially when a company is just starting out within a uncertain market.

On the other hand, whether Circle's business plan is more successful than other potential business plans may be another question all together (and time may reveal the answer to this question)? You may be correct in what seems to be your implication that a more global business approach may be better in a variety of ways, including the impression that the business creates for its various potential world-wide located customers.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 07:30:49 PM

ADAM::::::

OP::::::

I believe you made a mistake in the poll... it goes from $600s to $500s....

Also, sometimes it can be very difficult to pin down a prediction of an exact price, especially if guestimating in between two price points.... what about using ranges instead of set price points? Either way, I will do my best to guestimate and to vote.

Que le paso a Adam?

Quote from: madmat on June 09, 2014, 09:18:17 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 08:17:06 PM

Quote from: madmat on June 09, 2014, 06:45:13 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 05:55:54 PM

Quote from: madmat on June 09, 2014, 11:29:28 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 09, 2014, 11:03:36 AM

Bedtime for me, now.

I just bought 10BTC, and maybe I will buy another 10 in the morning... or maybe later in the day... depending upon how I feel... At this point, I would rather see down, rather than up, but my 10BTC hedges in the event that prices go up while I am sleeping.

Each time I send some fiat to my favorite exchange, I can't wait more than 2 days before converting it to bitcoin. Always afraid of price skyrocketing before I buy. It seems I am not the only one.

I found a solution, if the trend is bearish, I make a trailing order.

So far, I have been buying through Coinbase, which seems to be the cheapest solution for me to obtain BTC. So far, Coinbase does NOT allow the creation of orders, otherwise I would create orders in order that I do NOT need to watch the price so much in attempt to time my buys.

I buy on kraken, fees are 0,20% and withdraw is 0,0005btc. This is cheap. But I am in eurozone and they have volume, not sure USD volume is sufficient to make good buys.

From your description, those fees seem better than what Coinbase has been providing. Coinbase is 1% to buy BTC and 1% to sell. Plus $.15 per transaction.

Coinbase's prices are also usually within a few dollars of the Bitstamp price, and frequently, it seems impossible to take advantage, exactly, of the most extreme BTC price fluctuations of Bitstamp b/c of the seemingly delayed responsiveness of Coinbase's pricing.

I am looking forward to receiving an invitation from Circle.com, and to see how that plays out. Since they are proclaiming to have zero transactional fees, it will be interesting to see what kinds of restrictions that they are going to put in place in order to disincentivize China-type high volume and frequent trading.

I checked on kraken web site (https://www.kraken.com/help/fees-and-pair-info#XXBTZUSD) and fees are higher fort USD (0.30%) than fort euros (0.20%).

Thanks for the link, which caused me to browse through various conditions that seem to exist for creating a Kraken account and some of the fees that may apply.

In fact, it appears that Kraken has NOT established, exactly what fees they will be charging for USA bank account holders to make deposits into their Kraken accounts.

When initially investigated into establishing various accounts (about 6-7 months ago), I had noticed that various exchanges had fees from 2% to 10% to make deposits into their exchanges from USD accounts, and some money transfer/deposit mechanisms were NOT available to persons in the USA - even though non-USD accounts would frequently have fewer restrictions and/or transfer/deposit costs.

When I refer to Coinbase's fees, I am talking about both transaction fees and deposit fees, b/c Coinbase does NOT really allow traditional trading... so Coinbase only holds customer funds in BTC (NOT in dollars). Accordingly, the total costs for making any kind of BTC purchase through Coinbase is 1% + $.15.

The Kraken information regarding deposits (https://www.kraken.com/help/faq#deposit-methods) indicates that their policy (and fees) for depositing USD into Kraken accounts is currently in a state of flux. At this point, I surmise that it is likely that their prior deposit policy was more than 1% for USA dollar customers (likely in the about 5% range), and I would be surprised if their evolving and/or newly establish fees for USD deposits is competitive with Coinbase in the 2% or lower category. Never say Never, but I would be surprised if USD can be deposited into Kraken accounts for less than 2%..... which would still make Coinbase the most inexpensive means to obtain BTC through dollars at my disposal.

Certainly, there could be other methods to get BTC more cheaply, for me, less than 1%.... for example, if I had a connection with someone who is willing to sell me BTC for less than what it would cost me to obtain those BTC through Coinbase.

Quote from: boumalo on June 09, 2014, 09:26:13 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 09, 2014, 09:00:01 PM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 09, 2014, 08:02:47 PM

btw. I see Bitfinex leading with the price now.

Only if it is relative to Bitstamp and/or BTC-e?

In the 1m chart, the last pump was

Bitfinex: first hint 19:09, for real 19:10

Huobi and OKCoin: first hint 19:07, for real 19:08

It is going down at the moment but there will be a few big buyers before the week ends, will the traders decide to follow and buy or to wait and see

Are you just guessing about the existence of "big buyers," or do you have any kind of meaningful information regarding this?

Additionally, even if you have information about "big buyers," do you have any information about expected activities of "big sellers" that could affect whether the activities of "big buyers" will positively affect BTC prices in the near future (this week)?

Quote from: Carra23 on June 10, 2014, 12:19:43 AM

Quote from: findftp on June 09, 2014, 10:02:27 PM

Quote from: okthen on June 09, 2014, 09:58:51 PM

Bitcoin is disappointing us negatively this week.
The poll still seems rather bullish!

That's the problem, everybody is already loaded and have no spare FIAT to buy more.

Actually I do have some spare, but I have spread them out from 450 - 550.

Always helps to keep a bit of fiat for the sharp drops.

As time passes, a large majority of people continue to acquire additional fiat, and then the question becomes how that person wishes to store the value of that fiat b/c the opportunity to buy BTC between $450 and $550 has passed and currently is NOT available.

Accordingly, do we consider $650 to be a good value to store fiat in BTC, or do we believe storing fiat in some other investment vehicle or leaving it in fiat would be preferable?

Each of us needs to decide for ourselves what is the best storage of that newly acquired fiat.

Personally in the past several months, I have been putting my newly acquired fiat into BTC b/c currently, I consider BTC prices to be a good value as compared with other ways that I could store/invest that newly acquired fiat. Keeping it in fiat does NOT seem to be a very prudent approach in my current thinking.

Quote from: CoolStoryBro on June 10, 2014, 04:52:20 AM

Quote from: zimmah on June 10, 2014, 12:01:00 AM

Well anyway I don't know why people are so blind that they can't see fiat is the Ponzi and bitcoin is the way out of the Ponzi.

I herd you don't like Ponzi so we created a new Ponzi to get you out of Ponzi

CoolStoryBro:

hehehehehe......

Even though you are being a little ridiculous with your comment, above, I believe that your comment highlights a decent point.

Accordingly, I would clarify that neither bitcoin nor fiat is a ponzi scheme...

To say that either bitcoin or fiat is a ponzi scheme is to overly simplify and to misapply the concept of ponzi scheme. Neither fiat nor bitcoin is so simple an arrangement - there are too many factors influencing each.

Quote from: MahaRamana on June 10, 2014, 05:55:45 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 10, 2014, 05:25:06 AM

Quote from: CoolStoryBro on June 10, 2014, 04:52:20 AM

Quote from: zimmah on June 10, 2014, 12:01:00 AM

Well anyway I don't know why people are so blind that they can't see fiat is the Ponzi and bitcoin is the way out of the Ponzi.

I herd you don't like Ponzi so we created a new Ponzi to get you out of Ponzi

CoolStoryBro:

hehehehehe......

Even though you are being a little ridiculous with your comment, above, I believe that your comment highlights a decent point.

Accordingly, I would clarify that neither bitcoin nor fiat is a ponzi scheme...

To say that either bitcoin or fiat is a ponzi scheme is to overly simplify and to misapply the concept of ponzi scheme. Neither fiat nor bitcoin is so simple an arrangement - there are too many factors influencing each.

Fiat is a ponzi scheme in the sense that the monetary system works in a way where all money in existence is created in the form of Debt - with interest. So you have to constantly grow the monetary base to repay the interests of the previously created money with new money that is itself more debt and requires more interest which requires more money as debt etc... So it truly is a Ponzi and can only collapse at some point but it is benefiting only the few that control the global monetary system. A fiat monetary system that is not a ponzi could be created by emitting the FIAT directly and without liability to this emission, the counter party of the fiat being the work of the participants in the economy. Yet it has not been designed in this way but has been designed in a way that gradually enslaves the majority of the population and shifts most of the wealth in invisible hands.

On the other hand bitcoin is not a ponzi because it is an asset that is not the liability of someone else. If you have a bitcoin, nobody owes you anything about it. You just have your bitcoin and nobody else is involved in this position. It's like gold. Who could say that gold is a ponzi ?

A ponzi implies centralisation and fraud. Centralised fraud is used to influence the expectations of the investors based on the creation of false past and present returns. The money of new investors is used to hide the fraud by actually paying these false returns to first investors instead of giving new entrants their fair share in assets.

Bitcoin does not have returns - it only appreciates or depreciates based on its current utility and anticipated-utility in the future.
Bitcoin does not have centralisation that can hide parts of the information about it's use and nature - everything is in the open in the blockchain.

It's simply an asset that can crash or explode higher without counter party liability.

Therefore, using the word ponzi for the global monetary FIAT system is appropriate. Yet using the word ponzi for the bitcoin ledger system is not appropriate.

My point is that ponzi scheme is NOT appropriate for either. The government and its money system is much more complicated than some simple operation to rob the money of the poor for the rich, even though those kinds of dynamics that you describe are going on in the government.. NONETHELESS governmental systems remain much more complicated and nuanced as compared to a ponzi scheme which is generally a smaller operation designed smoke and mirrors to deceive.... surely there is some deception that is going on within government systems, as you suggest.. but ponzi scheme is NOT the correct concept and to attempt to simplify the fit into such a narrow definition is to oversimplify the various purposes and services of government....

Don't get me wrong, I am all for reform, and I am all for removing some of the corrupting influences of government and the disruption that bitcoin will be providing to potentially put more power into the hands of the people.

At the same time, I would NOT be so deluded as to believe that the government is going to disappear in some variations of its current form in any time in the very near future... transitions of systems take time... and certainly, we will be witnessing some of bitcoin's effects on various governmental and monetary institutions in the coming years.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on June 10, 2014, 08:57:00 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 10, 2014, 07:29:15 AM

My point is that ponzi scheme is NOT appropriate for either. The government and its money system is much more complicated than some simple operation to rob the money of the poor for the rich, even though those kinds of dynamics that you describe are going on in the government.. NONETHELESS governmental systems remain much more complicated and nuanced as compared to a ponzi scheme which is generally a smaller operation designed smoke and mirrors to deceive.... surely there is some deception that is going on within government systems, as you suggest.. but ponzi scheme is NOT the correct concept and to attempt to simplify the fit into such a narrow definition is to oversimplify the various purposes and services of government....

Don't get me wrong, I am all for reform, and I am all for removing some of the corrupting influences of government and the disruption that bitcoin will be providing to potentially put more power into the hands of the people.

At the same time, I would NOT be so deluded as to believe that the government is going to disappear in some variations of its current form in any time in the very near future... transitions of systems take time... and certainly, we will be witnessing some of bitcoin's effects on various governmental and monetary institutions in the coming years.

Yes, Fiat is NOT a Ponzi and Taxes are NOT theft, because it is the government who is engaged in these activities. The name of the action depends on who is doing the action, not on the content of the action - we've been through this before, haven't we? Wink

Euphemisms are being used by our culture to obfuscate and conceal the graveness of many of societies conditions. And you've fallen for it.

St. George Carlin will explain way better than me

Yes, I get the point that calling things or practices something other than what they are can be foolish.. and euphemism can be foolish, and yes there are a lot of foolish contradictions in this world in which we live and the way that various social and governmental systems are set up are also foolish.

Nonetheless, we are NOT going to make a whole heck of a lot of progress in analyzing, understanding and/or fixing the ways of the world by calling the government and its agents and institutions either thieves or a product of a ponzi scheme. These systems are much more innuendoed than that.

There are good people and well intentioned people carrying out a variety of governmental services, and there are also corrupt and corrupting practices and influences and behaviors within governmental institutions.. but the government has NOT been designed purposefully to engage in thievery nor as a ponzi scheme nor are the various governmental systems something that can be merely abandoned and start anew, believe it or NOT. Even though some people use the government and its various related institutions for variou kinds of selfish and thievery purposes, it was NOT designed for such (even though there are many flaws)....

AND, yes, hopefully, some day soon good people can find various democracizing purposes for bitcoin to provide positive influences to correct some of these negative and self-serving aspects of government.

Quote from: bangersdad on June 10, 2014, 10:40:03 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 10, 2014, 10:26:54 AM

Quote from: soullyG on June 10, 2014, 09:50:35 AM

I love this bit from the article (emphasis mine):

Quote

Now we have a small piece of pure, incorruptible mathematics enshrined in computer code that will allow people to solve the thorniest problems without reference to “the authorities”.

Which is bullshit, unfortunately.

There is no mathematical proof that the mining problem is hard, or that it is hard to get the private key of any given address.

No one has found how to do either of those things efficiently yet, but a smart teenager may find one tomorrow. Or may have found it already.

But bitcoiners need not worry, if that happens not only bitcoin, but all current e-commerce protocols will be compromised...

i used to enjoy your posts Jorge, as although i do not agree with most you write - they were well written and gave a temperance to all the "to da moon" posts.

but now you just seem desperate...making completely bizarre statements with no evidence to support your comments...now you seem just like any other fudster troll imo.

Jorge has become like the fat girl that will NOT give up... he hehe.. Cheesy

Quote from: oda.krell on June 10, 2014, 08:39:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 10, 2014, 07:29:15 AM

Quote from: MahaRamana on June 10, 2014, 05:55:45 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 10, 2014, 05:25:06 AM

Quote from: CoolStoryBro on June 10, 2014, 04:52:20 AM

Quote from: zimmah on June 10, 2014, 12:01:00 AM

Well anyway I don't know why people are so blind that they can't see fiat is the Ponzi and bitcoin is the way out of the Ponzi.

I herd you don't like Ponzi so we created a new Ponzi to get you out of Ponzi

CoolStoryBro:

hehehehehe......

Even though you are being a little ridiculous with your comment, above, I believe that your comment highlights a decent point.

Accordingly, I would clarify that neither bitcoin nor fiat is a ponzi scheme...

To say that either bitcoin or fiat is a ponzi scheme is to overly simplify and to misapply the concept of ponzi scheme. Neither fiat nor bitcoin is so simple an arrangement - there are too many factors influencing each.

Fiat is a ponzi scheme in the sense that the monetary system works in a way where all money in existence is created in the form of Debt - with interest. So you have to constantly grow the monetary base to repay the interests of the previously created money with new money that is itself more debt and requires more interest which requires more money as debt etc... So it truly is a Ponzi and can only collapse at some point but it is benefiting only the few that control the global monetary system. A fiat monetary system that is not a ponzi could be created by emitting the FIAT directly and without liability to this emission, the counter party of the fiat being the work of the participants in the economy. Yet it has not been designed in this way but has been designed in a way that gradually enslaves the majority of the population and shifts most of the wealth in invisible hands.

On the other hand bitcoin is not a ponzi because it is an asset that is not the liability of someone else. If you have a bitcoin, nobody owes you anything about it. You just have your bitcoin and nobody else is involved in this position. It's like gold. Who could say that gold is a ponzi ?

A ponzi implies centralisation and fraud. Centralised fraud is used to influence the expectations of the investors based on the creation of false past and present returns. The money of new investors is used to hide the fraud by actually paying these false returns to first investors instead of giving new entrants their fair share in assets.

Bitcoin does not have returns - it only appreciates or depreciates based on its current utility and anticipated-utility in the future.
Bitcoin does not have centralisation that can hide parts of the information about it's use and nature - everything is in the open in the blockchain.

It's simply an asset that can crash or explode higher without counter party liability.

Therefore, using the word ponzi for the global monetary FIAT system is appropriate. Yet using the word ponzi for the bitcoin ledger system is not appropriate.

My point is that ponzi scheme is NOT appropriate for either. The government and its money system is much more complicated than some simple operation to rob the money of the poor for the rich, even though those kinds of dynamics that you describe are going on in the government.. NONETHELESS governmental systems remain much more complicated and nuanced as compared to a ponzi scheme which is generally a smaller operation designed smoke and mirrors to deceive.... surely there is some deception that is going on within government systems, as you suggest.. but ponzi scheme is NOT the correct concept and to attempt to simplify the fit into such a narrow definition is to oversimplify the various purposes and services of government....

Don't get me wrong, I am all for reform, and I am all for removing some of the corrupting influences of government and the disruption that bitcoin will be providing to potentially put more power into the hands of the people.

At the same time, I would NOT be so deluded as to believe that the government is going to disappear in some variations of its current form in any time in the very near future... transitions of systems take time... and certainly, we will be witnessing some of bitcoin's effects on various governmental and monetary institutions in the coming years.

Completely agree.

But you're going to be feeling a bit lonely in here, with a nuanced position towards state and government like that.

At least a vocal subsection of bitcoin enthusiasts are strongly enough anti government and/or anti central bank controlled money flow that "ponzi" would be one of the nicer words in their inventory for it

Sometimes i question whether to just let the misinformation slide.... especially, as you say, if the point is one that people are NOT going to get or want to get or are motivated to frame the world within some kind of a simplistic and fantastical framework.

Sometimes the proclamations, in my view, just go too far, and the outrageousness and ridiculousness of such proclamations should NOT be just left without any kind of response. Accordingly to call the government a ponzi scheme is one of those outrageous and ridiculous comments that cannot just be allowed to go unchecked... ... governments are overwhelmingly vast and have come to dominate a larger and larger role in society and to dominate our public, private and business lives... And, it is NO wonder that a large number of people want to be relieved of some of these governmental pressures, especially when governments are beginning to employ technological means to continue to dominate and to oppress people...

Whether bitcoin is the savior or part of a continuation of oppression is a question that remains yet to be answered and can be part of an ongoing saga... to be determined.. stay tuned....

the same is true when people proclaim bitcoin to be a ponzi scheme... those of us who know enough about bitcoin realize that the statement is ridiculous... even in what seems to be its relative infancy of less than 6 years old, bitcoin has become much more sophisticated and complicated than any kind of meaningful definition of a ponzi scheme... and there are just too many players and developers in bitcoin and too many dynamics for such a simplistic summary of what bitcoin is or is NOT ..... In sum, the proclamation of bitcoin = ponzi scheme, just smacks of an outrageous exaggeration... especially to most anyone that has a fairly decent sense of the many applications and potential reach of bitcoin.

Governments, in their current variations, are much older and much more diverse and much more sophisticated and complicated than bitcoin. Actually, someday, hopefully, bitcoin will become as complicated as a multitude of governments... that is if bitcoin can handle such a challenge.. b/c it is a major challenge... and either bitcoin or some variation of bitcoin has the potential to take over a vast array of governmental and societal functions.... and those of us who have been studying some of the intricacies of bitcoin have come to these kinds of realizations about various potentialities of bitcoin... and accordingly that bitcoin has much unrealized potential... yet bitcoin cannot take on all of this potentiality at once b/c networks and systems need to be continued to be developed, tried, tested, failed and fixed and built around. And, hopefully as these systems continue to develop, better interfaces develop and better seamlessness develops and better user interfaces develop in order that the technology of bitcoin is NOT perceived but just happens.

I do NOT necessarily find the question of these kinds of what is a ponzi scheme and what is NOT as being matters of right or wrong b/c in some sense they are products of the perceptions of people, and people are allowed to perceive what they perceive; however, sometimes I believe that it is important to point out the misleading application of certain simplified concepts, even in these kinds of threads where it may NOT be feasible or productive to engage in a comprehensive rebuttal of mischaracterization(s)

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on June 10, 2014, 11:36:42 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 10, 2014, 09:23:14 AM

[snip]
but the government has NOT been designed purposefully to engage in thievery nor as a ponzi scheme nor are the various governmental systems something that can be merely abandoned and start anew, believe it or NOT. Even though some people use the government and its various related institutions for variou kinds of selfish and thievery purposes, it was NOT designed for such
[snip]

Well, we have a major disagreement here.

I am beginning to like you, ErisDiscoria, even in the midst of all of this supposed "major disagreement." Cheesy

And, after reading your further comment on the topic, it appears that we any disagreement that we may have is NOT too "major," at least NOT in my conception of the meaning of the term.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on June 10, 2014, 11:36:42 AM

The gov exhibits behavior suggesting that its goals are precisely the ones you've mentioned. Now it might not have been a conscious choice by any individual or group of individuals to make it so (which helps explain the persistent myth of the "government as servant"), but there we have it. You say it's selfish and thieving people using the gov for their own purposes. I say the very structure of gov provides incentive for such behavior and prohibits honest and non-corrupt behavior.

As many of us should realize by now, there is NO such thing as "the government," and instead government is a complicated array of societal relationships. Also, there seems to be a tendency for governments to grow and to develop in all communities, given enough time and enough interaction, a need for community relations are established.. and thus government is established... happens on small scales and happens on large scales, and maybe if a person is living on a self sustainable farm, government may NOT be needed... until you add more people... woops.. here.. government has developed again.. what do you know?

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on June 10, 2014, 11:36:42 AM

And government as a monopolistic, hierarchical structure with the legal monopoly of initiating force will be abandoned one day, believe it or NOT Wink

Government varies, yet frequently it has characteristics that you describe above. Sometimes those characteristics are comparable among different governments and sometimes they are very varied or subtle.

Maybe government will be abandoned some day? pretty hypothetical at the moment.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on June 10, 2014, 11:36:42 AM

But first stable, proven, decentralized alternatives with a track record of superior efficiency need to emerge.

could NOT have said it better myself. YES!!! If public and people needs are being served by alternative means, then sometimes it may NOT be necessary to maintain redundancy. A question may evolve, however, whether some system is redundant or NOT and is ready and truly in need of replacement.

Quote from: Parazyd on June 10, 2014, 11:58:54 AM

Back to $650 on Bitstamp. Feels okay.

Let's hope we start rushing upwards these days.

What's the rush, dude?

Quote from: Carra23 on June 10, 2014, 03:53:44 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 10, 2014, 12:41:29 AM

Quote from: Carra23 on June 10, 2014, 12:19:43 AM

Quote from: findftp on June 09, 2014, 10:02:27 PM

Quote from: okthen on June 09, 2014, 09:58:51 PM

Bitcoin is disappointing us negatively this week.
The poll still seems rather bullish!

That's the problem, everybody is already loaded and have no spare FIAT to buy more.

Actually I do have some spare, but I have spread them out from 450 - 550.

Always helps to keep a bit of fiat for the sharp drops.

As time passes, a large majority of people continue to acquire additional fiat, and then the question becomes how that person wishes to store the value of that fiat b/c the opportunity to buy BTC between $450 and $550 has passed and currently is NOT available.

Accordingly, do we consider $650 to be a good value to store fiat in BTC, or do we believe storing fiat in some other investment vehicle or leaving it in fiat would be preferable?

Each of us needs to decide for ourselves what is the best storage of that newly acquired fiat.

Personally in the past several months, I have been putting my newly acquired fiat into BTC b/c currently, I consider BTC prices to be a good value as compared with other ways that I could store/invest that newly acquired fiat. Keeping it in fiat does NOT seem to be a very prudent approach in my current thinking.

I am happy as long as I have more BTCs than to begin with. The remaining fiat is a bonus, if it drops I get more BTC, if it does not I have some fiat to burn.

You and I may be engaging in a very similar practice.

I invest in BTC with my spare fiat, yet I keep a reserve of fiat, just in case the price falls further.

However, if you do, as you describe, buy more BTC as the price is going down, then over the last 4-5 months, the price had been going down a lot... therefore, there were a lot of opportunities to buy BTC.

I ran out of some of my disposable fiat that was in my bank accounts and attempting to transfer at various times caused me to lose some opportunities. Also, some lump sums of fiat did NOT come to me until after the price had gone back up.

So for example this week I had a lump sum of about $25k come in my direction. I can use about $20k of that to invest in BTC, or I could keep it in fiat or I could invest in something else. I choose to invest most of it in BTC b/c I believe that BTC prices are going to be going up some more in the near future.. maybe 1 week or could be later on in the year... either way, I am NOT expecting to get at the $20k that was invested into BTC until 1 or 2 years from now.. ... well, in BTC land, one or two years is an eternity, but anyhow, you get the point that my investment is longer-term rather than expecting an immediate turn-around of the investment.

Quote from: Carra23 on June 10, 2014, 03:57:37 PM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 10, 2014, 02:12:14 PM

Quote from: deadley on June 10, 2014, 02:10:00 PM

Quote from: MoreFun on June 10, 2014, 01:59:13 PM

Someone is desperated about price going over $650 at Bitstamp now for a few days (and have a lot of coins).

We cant do much, just sit here and wait for jump or right time.

Let's just hope it happens soon

Me want actionz!

I have a small sell pending. The swings are quite small but I am bored and want to make something.

good luck with that... maybe I take back my previous comment and we are NOT thinking in the same terms.... but anyhow, you may be able to profit and trade in this current market. I personally believe thatit is NOT worth the effort.. and better to play long.. and maybe trade later...

However, if you acquired your BTC at below $266, then maybe it does NOT matter too much to skim off a few profits here and there.. at this price or at $800... either way, it is profits.

Quote from: BitChick on June 10, 2014, 04:50:07 PM

Quote from: Carra23 on June 10, 2014, 03:53:44 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 10, 2014, 12:41:29 AM

Quote from: Carra23 on June 10, 2014, 12:19:43 AM

Quote from: findftp on June 09, 2014, 10:02:27 PM

Quote from: okthen on June 09, 2014, 09:58:51 PM

Bitcoin is disappointing us negatively this week.
The poll still seems rather bullish!

That's the problem, everybody is already loaded and have no spare FIAT to buy more.

Actually I do have some spare, but I have spread them out from 450 - 550.

Always helps to keep a bit of fiat for the sharp drops.

As time passes, a large majority of people continue to acquire additional fiat, and then the question becomes how that person wishes to store the value of that fiat b/c the opportunity to buy BTC between $450 and $550 has passed and currently is NOT available.

Accordingly, do we consider $650 to be a good value to store fiat in BTC, or do we believe storing fiat in some other investment vehicle or leaving it in fiat would be preferable?

Each of us needs to decide for ourselves what is the best storage of that newly acquired fiat.

Personally in the past several months, I have been putting my newly acquired fiat into BTC b/c currently, I consider BTC prices to be a good value as compared with other ways that I could store/invest that newly acquired fiat. Keeping it in fiat does NOT seem to be a very prudent approach in my current thinking.

I am happy as long as I have more BTCs than to begin with. The remaining fiat is a bonus, if it drops I get more BTC, if it does not I have some fiat to burn.

I think many of the longer-term holders may be fully invested in BTC with little fiat to throw in at this point. However, most newbies begin with Bitcoin by just "getting their feet wet" so to speak. They throw a little in thinking it is too risky to put more in. When they see the price double in a short period of time they realize they should have thrown in much more and then suddenly they throw caution to the wind and buy as much as they possibly can which fuels the fire and that is how we get our runs to new ATH.

So my advice to any "newbie" reading this is learn from this. Waiting to buy with Bitcoin is generally a bad idea, especially as the price is showing movement upwards. Just my two cents here.

Bitchick:

I largely agree with you; however, there is another dynamic here, that seems to influence the way investors talk about BTC, and that is if you have already experienced a bubble and you were in BTC, then you are going to have a cushion of already being largely in the black.

I started investing in November 2013 at the top of the last bubble, but I had already realized that the previous run up had been pretty intense.. NONETHELESS, I wanted to get in at $1200 b/c I had just learned about some of the fundamentals at that point.. .and surely I have been learning more since but continuing my investment... currently, I am in the black, but just barely... yet I am NOT worried about it and I am continuing to invest in BTC as my fiat comes in.... YET at the same time, I am NOT going balls to the walls with high level investing b/c that is NOT my style, and I like to remain diversified (even though I am going to make less during the next bubble).

Also, I agree with you that currently waiting would NOT be a good idea.. b/c the train is likely going to be leaving and the bits are NOT going to get a whole hell-a-va lot cheaper.... though we may be in the flat for a month or so, but if I were just getting into BTC, I would front load a lot more of my investment currently, as compared to when the price was at $1200 in last November.

Quote from: gentlemand on June 10, 2014, 04:56:19 PM

Quote from: hyphymikey on June 10, 2014, 04:31:05 PM

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BTCUSD=X

Who'd've thunk it just a couple of years ago? I thought They wanted to go for XBT as the nomenclature though.

Does this mean that yahoo finance just started to list BTC? or has it been there for a while?

Quote from: madmat on June 10, 2014, 09:34:18 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 10, 2014, 09:28:52 PM

Since it is FUD time, why not:
Blabla...

So funny. You usually don't care if it is fud time or not.

And what is really funny (or ironic), is that trolls / FUD spreaders have so much balls as to announce that they are spreading FUD.

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on June 10, 2014, 10:29:23 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 10, 2014, 02:14:03 PM

I am beginning to like you, ErisDiscoria, even in the midst of all of this supposed "major disagreement." Cheesy

I feel like difference in opinion, even in fundamental assumptions about life, shouldn't ruin peoples ability to enjoy a beer together and/or have a friendly discussion

As long as the attacks don't become personal, we should be fine.

In this regard, I have certain relatives who really love to talk politics with me, and we really have a lot of disagreements about the roll of government and various applications of libertarianism... I have a couple of relatives who do NOT talk with each other b/c they do NOT like the way conversations devolve, and frequently, I strive NOT to take the conversation too much into the personal.. but it is all a matter of perspective, and sometimes, each of us may go a little too far.. and have to pull back.

Further, sometimes I get the feeling as if couple of my relatives are trapping me into some kind of lunch or breakfast situation, and then ganging up on me, yet ultimately, we generally are friendly enough about our whole exploration of these issues. A frequent comment that I make is: "so you guys have been working (studying) all week in order to figure out some ways to attack my world views with your comments." One time, my grandma, who is in her late 80s was sitting at the table for breakfast with my sister and my uncle going at me, and pretty soon I said, so you want to throw grandma under the bus in order to achieve dismantling of social security.. etc... etc. .. etc... Of course, they denied such motives, and we all got a kind of laugh about some of these attempts to apply real world situations to our theories.

Sometimes, if we are going too far in our conversations, we would just revert to talking about some less controversial topic, and in our case, we may be able to revert to talking about how we expect bitcoin prices to go through the roof and when we expect that to happen. Cheesy

Quote from: mmitech on June 11, 2014, 11:56:14 AM

Quote from: aminorex on June 11, 2014, 11:54:56 AM

looks like a risk off day today in the u.s.
monkey strongly thinks s&p is likely to turn down starting today on the daily, but still thinks there is a chance of another up week - an inconsistency which is very unusual, for the monkey.
monkey wants me to fade the bearish sentiment on u.s. long bonds real soon, but not today. (monkey says buying the june TLT 114 calls is a steal at 0.07/shr, if you like lottery tickets.)
monkey shorts bitcoin for 5 days
monkey remains short usdjpy, which has made me personally happy lately
monkey adores silver
monkey plans to close his coffee shorts on friday
monkey thinks friday is also likely to be a good day to sell netflix

you and your monkey....

Seems to be a good gig. My doggie appreciates the humor of it, but she's easily humored.

Quote from: fonzie on June 11, 2014, 07:23:33 PM

Quote from: seleme on June 11, 2014, 07:16:31 PM

The one thing I hate about Bitcoin rising is fonzie inevitable come to post his shit each 2 minutes. Was so good without him while we were at bottom. What a sad fuck.

Don´t you worry my darling, the times of a rising Bitcoin is over!Resumed and prolonged bear market has just started! MIght take 2-3 weeks until we hit the new bottom.

Me and my lil doggie are thinking a similar thing.... we will reach a new BTC price bottom for the period in 2-3 weeks, and that BTC price bottom would be around $611 or possibly $607... My little doggie is NOT very clairvoyant about her 7s & 11s.

Quote from: Raystonn on June 11, 2014, 07:45:47 PM

Either short or has a vested interest in big government.

don't forget about banks... and large status quo money institutions...

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on June 11, 2014, 09:00:17 PM

Today is the day the new weekly MACD candle will appear right?

What do you think will happen?
Will something happen? or still sideways?

There were 5 weekly green candles in a row, and in recent hours, the latest green candle turned to red, based on that recent price action.

Some have been calling this the beginning of a bear trend; however, those kinds of statements asserting a downtrend seem premature.

Accordingly, I am of the sense that generally, this market is transitioning from its February to May bear market into a bull market.. however, the period that we are in at the moment is a transition that may last a few more weeks and possibly up to two months before we can truly declare a bull market.

I am actually thinking that the overall sideways (maybe a little down and a little up) will only last a few more weeks, yet as we know it remains very difficult to be very precise when any such price movements are going to take place b/c certain big market players could behave in such a way to screw up the prediction.

Quote from: esse83 on June 11, 2014, 09:40:06 PM

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on June 11, 2014, 09:33:54 PM

what is happening at bitstamp is very fishy.

Didn't you think the KYC was fishy enough? These are the signs of an exchange in trouble. It has happened before, and will likely happen again. You have all been through it before, but can you act on it? Time will tell. My coins have left stamp for now.

Posters here keep trying to make comparison of bitstamp to GOX... and there is NO there there.

There are legitimate business justifiable and practical reasons for KYC rules, and the application of these various KYC rules at Bitstamp is NOT unreasonable and it is NOT very widespread info that Stamp is actually preventing customers from withdrawing their funds.

Quote from: esse83 on June 11, 2014, 09:58:06 PM

Quote from: dnaleor on June 11, 2014, 09:56:07 PM

why such stamp FUD?
Really, I don't see signs why there are problems at that exchange...

Then you need to open your eyes. Please try to make sense of how this is actually just normal. Remember how gox had the most irrational trading going on the last month before it closed? Well, it might not be the case, but do you want to keep your coins there?

GOX had problems for like 18 months before it closed... and 4-6 months before it closed it had more problems and then 1 month before it closed it had even more problems. Stamp is NO where near the problems of GOX, yet.... and I have NOT really seen any evidence of any real or meaningful problems.. besides mere rumors.

Quote from: RUEHL on June 11, 2014, 10:35:28 PM

More FUD.

Coinbase cancelled my last 2 orders, my first cancellations in over 30 trades.

Cited risk.

But they do get their BTC from Stamp. Maybe orders arn't being fulfilled?

I am NOT sure how that qualifies as FUD? Did it happen or NOT? If it did happen, then it is hardly FUD.. unless you are trying to extrapolate some larger pattern from that.

I bought 3 BTC on Coinbase a couple hours ago... for $619

Quote from: Dotto on June 11, 2014, 11:35:27 PM

Cooking ox tail soup?

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 12, 2014, 12:08:07 AM

idk about you guys but i've been buying Grin

You just told us to sell a couple of hours ago. So, I was considering selling my whole stash based on your seemingly sage advices.

Did you drink all of the beer bits?

Quote from: JimboToronto on June 12, 2014, 12:55:41 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 12, 2014, 12:36:24 AM

Cooking ox tail soup?

Nope. Too tough.

Nice juicy tender bear meat.

Blasphemy on the bear population, calling them cannibals... which they may be... they certainly are carnivores... at least most of them, thinking of the pandas.

Actually bitcoin bears may be like pandas and meat. Pandas could eat meat and have a more nutritious existence, but instead pandas choose to eat bamboo... for some strange reason.

Bitcoin bears could choose bitcoin and be better off financially, yet they choose fiat for some strange reason.

Quote from: falllling on June 12, 2014, 06:41:35 AM

Quote from: pepo on June 12, 2014, 06:25:17 AM

Bitcoin gone mainstream , relax and enjoy the ride

i would say, enjoy the price dropping plus money losing and maybe a full market crushing to $5xx and $4xx very soon!
thanks for the mtgox 800k + 200k lost coins and the China ban, there will be no more $1000 crazy buy, face the reality, $6xx is already the top bubble, time to calm down

I like that expression, but it needs some emphasis!!!!

Time to calm the FUCK down!!!!!!!! Cheesy

Is it working? Are you guys calm yet?

Quote from: Patel on June 12, 2014, 10:03:01 PM

2014 will be a brutal year for the price.

When these coins get sold, many of the people who buy them will sell as many as they need to get their initial $USD investment back.

During the next rally probably..

There will be a surplus supply and shortage in demand.

So much speculation.. in the above post.... it's like a house of cards, remove one and poof.. the house is gone.

Quote from: podyx on June 12, 2014, 10:13:13 PM

Quote from: pandacoin on June 12, 2014, 10:11:46 PM

Quote from: pandacoin on May 29, 2014, 05:42:42 AM

I'm waiting 540 to buy back.

Haha. Told you.

You said this when price was 570(may 29th), are you fucking retarded or something? lol

Some posters go through extensive leaps of logic to attempt to proclaim that they were right with some kind of random prediction... Maybe there is some innate need for people to feel like they were right?

On the other hand, maybe Pandacoin is retarded? lol.... Cheesy

Quote from: findftp on June 12, 2014, 10:23:41 PM

555 is the new 666

Yeah... some random number that peeps attempt to give more significance than it deserves... such religiousity!!!

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 12, 2014, 10:35:51 PM

fuck i gata buy!

brb

How many coins you got, Adam? I would've thunk that you had thousands of coins, already. and you would have largely bought back in in the lower $400s, if NOT lower.

Quote from: spooderman on June 12, 2014, 10:39:30 PM

Quote from: Wolf Rainer on June 12, 2014, 10:37:34 PM

Here we go again, that was a big bull trap, 60 usd of dumping and instant 30 up.

YEP>>>>> getting bear traps and bull traps mixed up.

Quote from: dreamspark on June 12, 2014, 11:37:01 PM

Quote from: podyx on June 12, 2014, 11:22:12 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on June 12, 2014, 11:20:22 PM

Such denial of the 1W MACD

You might wanna check the 1W MACD denial early october of 2013

It might shake some sense in you kid

Chill your beans no need to get so angry you have no idea what my position is and I was making an observation. Relax.

Yeah... but what does the 1w MACD say exactly? What does it mean to you?

I am NO expert when it comes to reading these charts; however, I noticed that it just turned red b/c of the downward spiral of BTC prices that were taking place, today, but the 1w macD had just turned green for its new weekly bar (so the new weekly bar is only about 1 day old). Likely the 1w macd is going to turn green again before the end of the week.. however, even if the 1week MACD does NOT turn green this week or next week, it is on the cusp of turning green within the coming few weeks.. and what that means to me, is that we will soon be entering into a bull BTC market..

Currently the BTC market is transitioning from bear to bull... but soonish, the BTC market is gonna be full bull all the way... and that means.. hang on baby!!!!! get your cheap coins while you still can... 3-4 weeks max... maybe less.

Quote from: kryptopojken on June 12, 2014, 11:54:31 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 12, 2014, 11:53:16 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on June 12, 2014, 11:52:23 PM

omg last 10 minutes have been so booooring!!

lol wtf

we need some action no? Cheesy

microwave and fast food culture.. with short attention span... seems like we already had quite a bit of "action" today? somehow we need more action? maybe I repeat adam...? WTF?

Quote from: Dr. LY on June 13, 2014, 12:05:38 AM

Pretty stoked for this. Sold 9 coins at 660 thinking I might be able to increase my BTC holdings at 570, and its working out nicely.

I thought that you would have learned your lesson from your last attempt at trading, when you sold at $400 and bought back at $500?

Maybe you cannot protect yourself from yourself? hehehehe... Cheesy

Remember that both pigs and sheep get slaughtered.. but for different reasons.

Hopefully you either bought back or you are buying back soon...

Quote from: hmmmstrange on June 13, 2014, 12:36:58 AM

Quote from: shmadz on June 12, 2014, 11:49:18 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on June 12, 2014, 11:37:34 PM

If we rebound now it's like SR all over again.

you know what? when SR first got busted I thought that if they actually ever went through on the auction it would be bullish.

I thought that it would give bitcoin an air of legitimacy in the public eye that their gov't is earning 15 million dollars from selling bitcoin.

This auction should get a TON of news, and it shows the impression that the US gov't is totally fine and comfortable with buying and selling bitcoin.

It would be so cool if this is just a SR type dip. These are the silk road coins after all.

Cool

By selling the bitcoins, the government is setting and or affirming the legality of bitcoin.

That was accomplished in about February when the Feds announced that they were going to sell them... only the specifics concerning the date came out today.. so you are referring to old news regarding the legitimizing of bitcoin by agreeing to put them back on the market.

Quote from: shmadz on June 13, 2014, 12:48:40 AM

Quote from: ChrisML on June 13, 2014, 12:44:15 AM

Smell that $666? Mmmm mjes I can. Lets go bishes.

slow down there pard'ner

we need to eat the wall at 586 first, then digest for a while before tackling satan again.

Seems likely that BTC prices will float in the $570 to $610 arena for a few days... and maybe consolidate for a while.. before deciding what to do.. which seems more likely to be up, rather than down, but what do I know?

Quote from: TERA on June 13, 2014, 03:22:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 13, 2014, 02:45:17 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on June 12, 2014, 11:37:01 PM

Quote from: podyx on June 12, 2014, 11:22:12 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on June 12, 2014, 11:20:22 PM

Such denial of the 1W MACD

You might wanna check the 1W MACD denial early october of 2013

It might shake some sense in you kid

Chill your beans no need to get so angry you have no idea what my position is and I was making an observation. Relax.

Yeah... but what does the 1w MACD say exactly? What does it mean to you?

I am NO expert when it comes to reading these charts; however, I noticed that it just turned red b/c of the downward spiral of BTC prices that were taking place, today, but the 1w macD had just turned green for its new weekly bar (so the new weekly bar is only about 1 day old). Likely the 1w macd is going to turn green again before the end of the week.. however, even if the 1week MACD does NOT turn green this week or next week, it is on the cusp of turning green within the coming few weeks.. and what that means to me, is that we will soon be entering into a bull BTC market..

Currently the BTC market is transitioning from bear to bull... but soonish, the BTC market is gonna be full bull all the way... and that means.. hang on baby!!!!! get your cheap coins while you still can... 3-4 weeks max... maybe less.

I think you should trade with a different strategy other than following a single indicator and using your expectations about what that one indicator is going to do in the future.

You are doing meta-TA: TA-about what TA is going to occur in the future. Regular TA is already unreliable enough on its own and now you compound it.

I am working my beliefs about the direction of BTC from what I believe to be the overall long-term trends in BTC prices and BTC news/developments and what i believe is increased overall adoption of BTC by the populous... I doubt that I am really relying upon the 1 week MacD... even though I am spouting off about it.

I do NOT claim to understand the nitty gritty of TA - especially any short-term prediction, and I take with a grain of salt any short-term predictions that I read b/c so far, I have tended to be long term buy and hodl kind of BTC investor.

Quote from: hmmmstrange on June 13, 2014, 04:24:49 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 13, 2014, 01:56:54 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 13, 2014, 01:50:35 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 12, 2014, 10:35:51 PM

fuck i gata buy!

brb

How many coins you got, Adam? I would've thunk that you had thousands of coins, already. and you would have largely bought back in in the lower $400s, if NOT lower.

no... sadly i'm no where near being a bitlionaire

With a June 13, 2011 join date, I'd estimate Adam to have 500 to 1000 coins. But it's really none of our business.

HEhehehehehehe... ... that's what I was thinking, minimum.... ... and it could be our business if we interrogate him, and he chooses to answer us. Cheesy

Quote from: Cassius on June 13, 2014, 06:54:07 AM

Woke up to find my $550 order got filled on Stamp. Looks like I somehow got lucky as the bottom of the candle seems to be around $560.
Any thoughts on volume? Was that our bottom?

Fonzie et al need not reply; I already know what you're going to say.

Even the bitcoin wisdom 30 minute candles show that the price on Stamp got down to $550 for three candles in a row. I was watching the price fluctuations as the candles were forming, and I surely saw a lot of orders filled at $550.

Quote from: Parazyd on June 13, 2014, 07:01:26 AM

Quote from: gimme_bottles on June 13, 2014, 06:58:47 AM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 13, 2014, 06:41:54 AM

Quote from: podyx on June 13, 2014, 06:39:14 AM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 13, 2014, 06:38:42 AM

Dear god!

http://i.imgur.com/UsTkUQ0.png

I'm scared. I'm really scared.

Are you gonna sell your coins?

No. No way. Let's just hope Ghash.IO stops doing this and possibly returns to 49%.

Guys, 50% is not a magical number. A pool at 49% is almost as dangerous as a pool at 51%.

The probability of a pool solving another 5 blocks in a row after solving the first one is 2.8% at 49% of total hashrate and 3.45% at 51% of total hashrate. Sure there is a difference, but you can't say a pool at 49% isn't something to worry about.

Still it gives a fake sense of safety... I realize we're fucked if GHash.io doesn't do something about this.

I thought that the problem with the 51% is the allowing transaction confirmations rather than whether your pool receives a block award... but it has to do with being able to transact with money that you do NOT have to then steal and then to undermine confidence in the network b/c you control the approvals of the transactions.

Quote from: Searing on June 13, 2014, 08:17:30 AM

Quote from: podyx on June 13, 2014, 08:15:45 AM

Quote from: BTCfan1 on June 13, 2014, 07:50:32 AM

Quote from: YipYip on June 13, 2014, 07:44:57 AM

600 passing ...choo choo Cheesy

LMAO

The bitcoin info network was just 'digesting' the snack the Fed's offered in seized coin

(heh not sure how to tell but i'd bet China took more then 1 piece of the pizza (damn it!)

Searing

Yes, ... the 30K coins seem to be a test run, and the 144k coins will be a bigger deal... a bit more difficult to absorb

Quote from: maok on June 13, 2014, 02:50:22 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 13, 2014, 02:39:02 PM

Yes, ... the 30K coins seem to be a test run, and the 144k coins will be a bigger deal... a bit more difficult to absorb

The 144k is why we won't get to a new ATH so that the market could be free from before-knowing massive dump. Only after the 144k auction we'll be set for the moon IMHO.

I get what you are suggesting, above; however, I get the sense that the BTC market is NOT going to keep staying down with each and every pending uncertainty regarding various coins or its future.. .b/c sometimes the momentum to go up is just there, in spite of various uncertainties that may exist.

As many of us know there remain quite a few uncertainties with the future of bitcoin.. for example: There is the uncertainty of the 200k found gox coins, and there is the uncertainty of the 600k not yet found gox coins. Also, there is the uncertainty regarding whether anybody, including Satoshi, has control over nearly 1 million early mined coins, and then there is the uncertainty of these many bullshit exchanges conducting off-line insider trading and manipulations of the price with potentially engaging in a kind of fractional reserve banking..

My point is that there seem to be quite a few uncertainties with bitcoin, and a lot of similar kinds of uncertainties existed within the approximately 5 previous 10x bubble (uptrends). Bitcoin seems fairly likely and poised to have another bubble in the near future in spite of several outstanding uncertainties....... Even though some people attempt to predict exactly when this next uptrend/bubble is going to occur, there remains human control and some non-mathematical aspects that can affect the results: eg "when" and "how much" and "how explosively".

Quote from: dnaleor on June 13, 2014, 03:52:33 PM

Quote from: hmmmstrange on June 13, 2014, 04:24:49 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 13, 2014, 01:56:54 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 13, 2014, 01:50:35 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 12, 2014, 10:35:51 PM

fuck i gata buy!

brb

How many coins you got, Adam? I would've thunk that you had thousands of coins, already. and you would have largely bought back in in the lower $400s, if NOT lower.

no... sadly i'm no where near being a bitlionaire

With a June 13, 2011 join date, I'd estimate Adam to have 500 to 1000 coins. But it's really none of our business.

I assume a lot of people here are satoshimillionaires. I'm a satoshibillionaire Grin

edit: adam is probably a trillionaire Wink

These terms may be lacking in some concreteness for people.

There are 100 million satoshis in a bitcoin.

Therefore, all one needs to be a satoshi millionaire is .01BTC.

But to be a satoshi billionaire you need to have 10BTC

To be a satoshi trillionaire, you need to have 10,000 BTC.

NOT too many people, even early adopters have maintained enough discipline to accumulate and/or to maintain more than 10k BTC. Based on Adam's prior statements, I would be really surprised if he had such quantity of BTC at his disposal.

Quote from: dreamspark on June 13, 2014, 04:02:34 PM

Quote from: Blitz on June 13, 2014, 03:58:38 PM

gmaxwell (Gregory Maxwell) is also a core dev and has expressed his concerns about the situation on Reddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/27lotn/people_dont_realize_how_serious_a_50_attack_is/ci27dpy

Yeah but gmaxwell just added his opinion, talking about selling coins and actual market decisions is a different story. Not that I don't think the whole situation is an issue it just reeks of market manipulation when someone in that position talks about selling 1000's of coins. Clearly its a free market and Im not saying it should be censored, just that somebody who's in such a privileged position should act with decorum and for the best of the community. As a respected developer his opinion should matter to the point where he doesn't have to talk about his actual market actions like he needs it to add weight to his point.

Peter did NOT talk about selling thousands of coins - instead, he talked about selling quantities in the five digits (without really specifying). Therefore he could have sold anywhere between $10k and $99.99K worth of BTC - in other words less than 200 BTC.

Quote from: NamelessOne on June 13, 2014, 04:07:56 PM

Quote from: JimboToronto on June 13, 2014, 04:05:30 PM

Quote from: ChrisML on June 13, 2014, 03:41:02 PM

Quote from: akujin on June 13, 2014, 03:39:28 PM

troll bs

Hey cuntface!

Please don't insult women's genitalia by using them to refer to this loser.

+1

+2

Quote from: p0peji on June 13, 2014, 04:26:12 PM

Quote from: Miz4r on June 13, 2014, 04:14:44 PM

Quote from: Blitz on June 13, 2014, 03:58:38 PM

gmaxwell (Gregory Maxwell) is also a core dev and has expressed his concerns about the situation on Reddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/27lotn/people_dont_realize_how_serious_a_50_attack_is/ci27dpy

He's saying that a pool with 30% is just as bad as a pool with 51%, so according to him the current situation is not any different than before as there have always been pools with around 30% of the network.

Wait, all this time they are concerned the whole bitcoin thing is broken, but they picked this date to all of a sudden spread their concerns? What a bunch of assholes imo, sell their coins and suddenly express their concerns. Huh

Yeah... WTF?

Quote from: Blitz on June 13, 2014, 04:52:31 PM

Quote from: meanig on June 13, 2014, 04:50:27 PM

Quote from: Blitz on June 13, 2014, 03:45:52 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 13, 2014, 03:41:55 PM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 13, 2014, 03:37:05 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on June 13, 2014, 03:35:20 PM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 13, 2014, 03:34:09 PM

33k volume on Bitstamp. Orders filled fast

Yeah, any reason for price falling like a rock again? Huobi, too Huh

People probably saw this: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/281ftd/why_i_just_sold_50_of_my_bitcoins_ghashio/

And now the herd is following.

TL;DR dude sells coins because of some FUD he believed in.

Peter Todd is a Bitcoin core developer. FUD = Facts U Dislike.

Peter Todd is NOT a Bitcoin core developer.

https://bitcoin.org/en/development

Facts U Dislike

Indeed, sorry about that. Just a regular Bitcoin developer, only gmaxwell is core.

NOT that I like to repeat any kind of baloney and misleading slogan, such as "Facts U Dislike;" however, on the substance of the topic, Peter Todd does appear to have a fairly high number of contributions (31), so PT is NO small potato.

Nonetheless, it does seem a bit irritating that Peter Todd would be coming out publicly with some kind of seemingly disgruntled statements that have the potential of causing FUD within the generally accepted meaning of the term (FUD = Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt).

The irony of the situation is comparable to a moderator on this forum misusing the term FUD.. to cause FUD about the meaning of FUD. Cheesy

Quote from: bobo418 on June 13, 2014, 05:54:34 PM

For such a senior member here Adam you don't seem to understand trustless, distributed consensus very well. More of a cheerleader it seems.

YEAH Adam.. you are a cheerleader!!!!! Huh

GO Adam!!!!!!!!!!!! GO Adam!!!!!!!

Quote from: Sandia on June 13, 2014, 06:55:07 PM

BTC is less fun after I finished buying. Before, I would hope for low prices to get more coins but cheer when my old coins gained value. Now, I just wince when prices drop. I wish I was stupid enough to put the last of my fiat in; alas, I am not.

I had better go earn some fiat.

I believe that quite a few of us have realized that it is good to hang on to extra fiat to be able to buy more BTC on the downswings in order to bring down our average BTC price. Otherwise, the situation, as you seem to be experiencing, may be more stressful on the BTC price downswings.

Quote from: fonzie on June 13, 2014, 07:58:35 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 13, 2014, 07:31:43 PM

Quote from: NamelessOne on June 13, 2014, 04:07:56 PM

Quote from: JimboToronto on June 13, 2014, 04:05:30 PM

Quote from: ChrisML on June 13, 2014, 03:41:02 PM

Quote from: akujin on June 13, 2014, 03:39:28 PM

troll bs

Hey cuntface!

Please don't insult women's genitalia by using them to refer to this loser.

+1

+2

Personal insults are NOT ok but in my experience a common way to express for delusional bulls who are realising that the market is about to crash! JayJuanGee, i´m NOT really pleased with your behavior.

Hehehehehehe.... I must be on to something, I got an endorsement from a TROLL.... Cheesy

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 13, 2014, 11:43:39 PM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 13, 2014, 11:40:43 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 13, 2014, 11:36:34 PM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 13, 2014, 11:15:08 PM

This price is gonna last until the SR auction. Probably. So that whales can get cheaper coins.

2 weeks of sideways

that would suck

Maybe not sideways, maybe lower.

nonsense, we'll be back over 600 b4 i goto bed....

I would consider any BTC prices between $570 and $610 to be sideways, and I have my doubts about whether the SR auction is THAT BIG of a deal.

Some people are suggesting "screw the government" and let's keep the prices for the BTC low, yet I am thinking the direct opposite. The govt can print as much money as it wants, so a measly 18 million or even 30 million is chicken feed to it. On the other hand, those BTC were gotten for free, and people who buy them are really getting stolen property.. b/c those coins should have been in the rightful hands of various customers who were buying and selling through SR services.... Anyhow, any purchaser should be forced to pay premium for those coins... accordingly, it would be nice to see a doubling or tripling of the BTC price before the end of the month in order that the buyer(s) will have to pay a premium price for those ill-gotten BTC.

Probably, I am being a little unrealistic in my hope for BTC prices to go up in the coming two weeks, b/c I am anticipating that BTC prices may NOT move too much in that period of time.. merely b/c this news seems to cause a certain amount of uncertainty regarding the direction of BTC.

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on June 14, 2014, 02:10:31 PM

Quote from: eoJ on June 14, 2014, 09:48:50 AM

Quote from: Richard Branson on June 14, 2014, 08:52:19 AM

Nobody sold part of his btc stash rebought @ sub 400$?

I did, unfortunately sold in the second week after ATH, but then rebought at:

Had an order for 340, but since we didn't quite hit that on BTC-e, you've got the 400 orders. Have been holding since.

So you have now more than twice the amount of btc you would have if you hold - why is that unfortunate Huh

Maybe there is some greed going on here?

Also, seems a little strange that someone who was prepared to buy more at $340 did NOT buy more at other higher price points?

Quote from: gizmoh on June 14, 2014, 03:39:51 PM

Quote from: gizmoh on June 03, 2014, 07:09:04 AM

Quote from: YipYip on June 03, 2014, 06:21:49 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 03, 2014, 04:58:49 AM

Quote from: gizmoh on June 02, 2014, 07:16:57 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 02, 2014, 07:11:47 AM

We are at lower prices.

I will wait for cheaper price under 550 seems OK.. Its bound to test 600 soonish..Yes shroomy i've seen the future Cheesy

Still waiting?

That dude is smokin da crack pipe ..and dropping too much acid for his 600 retest Cool

The future is still ahead, this is just one big whale pushing with borrowed money paying high rates to me

( $1.5m borrowed yesterday) , $21.5 million in longs currently, the fall gonna be epic.. I hereby revise my prediction: 500 in 2 weeks Roll Eyes

If you can't see a double top formation, then you are a greedy delusional bull Grin

Sweet reminder Grin

I find it reassuring when posters quote themselves to say, "I told you so." NOT Tongue

Quote from: p0peji on June 14, 2014, 03:41:41 PM

Quote from: podyx on June 14, 2014, 03:31:50 PM

There goes a couple of months salary(if I even had a job Roll Eyes

)

Fuck my life man, fuck it!

It is only a loss if you decide to close the trade.

YEP!!!!! We should keep these matters in perspective.

Although I am long... so I consider price dips as buying opportunities rather than panicking or regretting or feeling sorry for oneself over matter that are difficult to control.

NOW, on the other hand, even though additional buying opportunities would be presented, if the price goes below $266, then I may start to worry a little bit - depending upon the circumstances.

On the other hand (I am running out of hands, here), I understand some of this disappointment b/c it seems that we were supposed to be heading to the moon, soonish.... and maybe this downtrend causes a slight delay.. ... even though BTC prices still could be on track for a drastic uptrend in July/August or maybe as late as November/December.

Quote from: Torque on June 14, 2014, 03:48:43 PM

Bitcoin is such an awesome investment, it's now the same price it was around 8 months ago. Yay!

/s

So what price the same as 8 months ago?

Such short term thinking, no?

You gotta have a little patience, NO? be willing to ride this baby in the ups and the downs, NO?

Does NOT make bitcoin a bad investment merely b/c the next uptrend has been delayed by a few months or even by a year or so....

Maybe whether BTC is a good or bad investment depends upon your timeline and how anxious you are to receive a turnaround in your investment?

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 05:12:41 PM

This is looking like a 2012 after 2011 bubble, while the infrastructure was not there for the last year valuation ($1200 bubble ) I thought somehow the price will hold for it to catch up..... but it seems that I was really wrong.

I also thought that there will be a bubble between May and the half of June so I kept holding, I bought most of my coins between $10-100 and did cash just small amount of it at the December bubble, bet hell I wont be greedy and watch the price fall even further, I sold Half of my holdings yesterday, This will give me a free couple of years vacation...

Good luck with that (seems a bit short sighted to plan a 2 year vacation when BTC is going to go up a lot in the next few months), and let us know, in a couple of years (or even in six months) how you then feel about deciding to take that vacation with your BTC revenues.

Quote from: aminorex on June 14, 2014, 05:13:50 PM

Just remindin y'all: The monkey is still planning to reverse his daily basis btc short to a long position 3 days hence.

Monkey advises holders to hold, traders to trade, and haters to hate, that the cup be filled. Drinking comes later. He said this while seated in lotus position, and I could almost have sworn that there was a 2cm air gap between him and the floor.

Doggie thanks monkey. Cheesy

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 05:34:02 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 05:29:56 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 05:12:41 PM

This is looking like a 2012 after 2011 bubble, while the infrastructure was not there for the last year valuation ($1200 bubble ) I thought somehow the price will hold for it to catch up..... but it seems that I was really wrong.

I also thought that there will be a bubble between May and the half of June so I kept holding, I bought most of my coins between $10-100 and did cash just small amount of it at the December bubble, bet hell I wont be greedy and watch the price fall even further, I sold Half of my holdings yesterday, This will give me a free couple of years vacation...

Good luck with that (seems a bit short sighted to plan a 2 year vacation when BTC is going to go up a lot in the next few months), and let us know, in a couple of years (or even in six months) how you then feel about deciding to take that vacation with your BTC revenues.

this is how I see your comment:

A guy does NOT need to be overly optimistic to believe that your selling below $600 now for a two year plan to spend it seems pretty short sighted... NOW on the other hand, if the price does NOT go above $600 in the coming 6 months, then I will applaud your foresight and/or luck.

Until then, I believe that the odds are greatly against what you did. The odds seem much better to cash out smaller amounts slowly, rather than cashing out 2 years worth at this point with a market that will soon be going up (in less than 6 months). In other words, if is very likely that we will be seeing $800 within the next 6 months... but my investment does NOT count on it.. b/c I am likely to be in for a couple more years b/c I sense that BTC is amongst one of the better places to put your money, at the moment.

Where are you going to put your cashed out funds in the coming two years to preserve its value? IN the stock market? IN gold? In silver? in a bank account? under your mattress? Do you even have a plan? I hope so.

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 06:01:42 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 05:41:04 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 05:34:02 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 05:29:56 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 05:12:41 PM

This is looking like a 2012 after 2011 bubble, while the infrastructure was not there for the last year valuation ($1200 bubble ) I thought somehow the price will hold for it to catch up..... but it seems that I was really wrong.

I also thought that there will be a bubble between May and the half of June so I kept holding, I bought most of my coins between $10-100 and did cash just small amount of it at the December bubble, bet hell I wont be greedy and watch the price fall even further, I sold Half of my holdings yesterday, This will give me a free couple of years vacation...

Good luck with that (seems a bit short sighted to plan a 2 year vacation when BTC is going to go up a lot in the next few months), and let us know, in a couple of years (or even in six months) how you then feel about deciding to take that vacation with your BTC revenues.

this is how I see your comment:

http://i.imgur.com/7hwdkuO.png

A guy does NOT need to be overly optimistic to believe that your selling below $600 now for a two year plan to spend it seems pretty short sighted... NOW on the other hand, if the price does NOT go above $600 in the coming 6 months, then I will applaud your foresight and/or luck.

Until then, I believe that the odds are greatly against what you did. The odds seem much better to cash out smaller amounts slowly, rather than cashing out 2 years worth at this point with a market that will soon be going up (in less than 6 months). In other words, if is very likely that we will be seeing $800 within the next 6 months... but my investment does NOT count on it.. b/c I am likely to be in for a couple more years b/c I sense that BTC is amongst one of the better places to put your money, at the moment.

Where are you going to put your cashed out funds in the coming two years to preserve its value? IN the stock market? IN gold? In silver? in a bank account? under your mattress? Do you even have a plan? I hope so.

you should think and talk only about your investment, each Bitcoin I own is worth $-400 , yes -400 this means that each Bitcoin has already paid $400 from trading... I bought most of my coins between 10-100 so I already made 60 times what I invested (worst case scenario)when I sold, in fact with the trading profits I paid all my mortgages and debts, I resigned my daily job and now I will enjoy my 2 years of vacations.... I will make sure to not be worried and only enjoy with my small family, otherwise I still hold many coins, so if the next bubble will hit I will be a happy man.... in other words I am trying to not be a greedy bastard.

meanwhile, this is what I am up to:

Yes, and you failed/refused to answer my various questions concerning where you are putting that money and the likely direction of BTC in the next six months.. To me it sounds as if you got anxious... but you do NOT really have much of a plan for where you are going to put your funds, and if you do have a plan, you are NOT disclosing it, here.... b/c you are too focused on NOT answering my questions... and just bragging about how you made the right decision and about how much money, you supposedly made by your wise choice to cash out at this particular time.

I have NO problem(s) with diversification of risk, and I have NO problem(s) with raking profits. And, also I have NO problem with guys deciding what they want to do with their own money... but to me, it seems as if you clearly left easy money on the table with your seemingly short-sighted anxiety.

In this regard, it just seems a bit lacking of perspective of the likely direction of BTC compared with other assets to rake half the BTC stash at this point, even if half the stash will provide 2 years of fun in the sun for you.

By the way, there are others, besides you, who have quit their jobs and do NOT really need to work for a living or ONLY work a small amount.. based on various investments that they have made over the years.

Quote from: tarmi on June 14, 2014, 06:34:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 06:27:20 PM

.................

. but you do NOT really have much of a plan for where you are going

wtf? he is running to the hills, why so annoying?

morrowind, elder scrolls?

get a life.

He said that he cashed out half of his BTC yesterday b/c he has a plan to play with the proceeds for two years. I said that his plan seems to be very short sighted, especially given the likely direction of BTC in the next six months. Therefore I asked him where he planned to put his investments, and he failed/refused to answer, and instead stuck to his original framing about how wonderful he is., etc etc etc.. for making so much money, while he left quite a bit on the table through neglect and/or lack of foresight, so it seems.

other posters mentioned morrowind and elder scrolls.... b/c I do NOT know WTF are morrowind and elder scrolls... even though those topics may be relevant. Cheesy

Regarding, "get a life" Yes, we each have lives and we choose how to spend our lives, and part of my life, at the moment includes posting on this forum and responding to relevant issues... and attempting to contribute to the forum (thread) in a productive direction.

Quote from: Dragonkiller on June 14, 2014, 06:43:47 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 06:42:30 PM

Quote from: tarmi on June 14, 2014, 06:34:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 06:27:20 PM

.................

. but you do NOT really have much of a plan for where you are going

wtf? he is running to the hills, why so annoying?

morrowind, elder scrolls?

get a life.

He said that he cashed out half of his BTC yesterday b/c he has a plan to play with the proceeds for two years. I said that his plan seems to be very short sighted, especially given the likely direction of BTC in the next six months. Therefore I asked him where he planned to put his investments, and he failed/refused to answer, and instead stuck to his original framing about how wonderful he is., etc etc etc.. for making so much money, while he left quite a bit on the table through neglect and/or lack of foresight, so it seems.

other posters mentioned morrowind and elder scrolls.... b/c I do NOT know WTF are morrowind and elder scrolls... even though those topics may be relevant. Cheesy

There is always a trade-off between current enjoyment and future enjoyment. Different people have different discount rates.

Actually I have NO problems with people making choices for themselves about when to pull out or what is their risk/diversification tolerance(s).

MMItech's plan, on the other hand, seems to assume that his risks would be better diversified with half of his BTC stash in some NON-BTC investment (and spending it), but he never really stated what that was. He merely stated that he was going to spend his money for two years, which does seem like a form of blind bragging.

And I was merely attempting to question what was his plan, and maybe I could have asked my question(s) more clearly or more politely (but seemingly bragging responses do kind of irk me a bit)?

Anyhow, if one assumes that BTC is going to be stagnant for two years, then it would be prudent to pull out two years worth of spending, but a prognosis of flat or down turned BTC prices seems a pretty improbably direction of BTC prices, and just an excited utterance to do something based on emotions of the moment rather than really having a decent plan (or at least sharing aspects of the plan wiht us).... ...

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 06:46:46 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 06:42:30 PM

Quote from: tarmi on June 14, 2014, 06:34:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 06:27:20 PM

.................

. but you do NOT really have much of a plan for where you are going

wtf? he is running to the hills, why so annoying?

morrowind, elder scrolls?

get a life.

He said that he cashed out half of his BTC yesterday b/c he has a plan to play with the proceeds for two years. I said that his plan seems to be very short sighted, especially given the likely direction of BTC in the next six months. Therefore I asked him where he planned to put his investments, and he failed/refused to answer, and instead stuck to his original framing about how wonderful he is., etc etc etc.. for making so much money, while he left quite a bit on the table through neglect and/or lack of foresight, so it seems.

other posters mentioned morrowind and elder scrolls.... b/c I do NOT know WTF are morrowind and elder scrolls... even though those topics may be relevant. Cheesy

Regarding, "get a life" Yes, we each have lives and we choose how to spend our lives, and part of my life, at the moment includes posting on this forum and responding to relevant issues... and attempting to contribute to the forum (thread) in a productive direction.

I have it in my bank account where I pay my bills and pay for goods with €....

The best of my current bank accounts only pays about 1% interest, and possibly you could get 3 or 4% if you have some kind of premium bank account and if that is what floats your boat, then who am I to say?

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 07:03:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 06:57:40 PM

Quote from: Dragonkiller on June 14, 2014, 06:43:47 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 06:42:30 PM

Quote from: tarmi on June 14, 2014, 06:34:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 06:27:20 PM

.................

. but you do NOT really have much of a plan for where you are going

wtf? he is running to the hills, why so annoying?

morrowind, elder scrolls?

get a life.

He said that he cashed out half of his BTC yesterday b/c he has a plan to play with the proceeds for two years. I said that his plan seems to be very short sighted, especially given the likely direction of BTC in the next six months. Therefore I asked him where he planned to put his investments, and he failed/refused to answer, and instead stuck to his original framing about how wonderful he is., etc etc etc.. for making so much money, while he left quite a bit on the table through neglect and/or lack of foresight, so it seems.

other posters mentioned morrowind and elder scrolls.... b/c I do NOT know WTF are morrowind and elder scrolls... even though those topics may be relevant. Cheesy

There is always a trade-off between current enjoyment and future enjoyment. Different people have different discount rates.

Actually I have NO problems with people making choices for themselves about when to pull out or what is their risk/diversification tolerance(s).

MMItech's plan, on the other hand, seems to assume that his risks would be better diversified with half of his BTC stash in some NON-BTC investment (and spending it), but he never really stated what that was. He merely stated that he was going to spend his money for two years, which does seem like a form of blind bragging.

And I was merely attempting to question what was his plan, and maybe I could have asked my question(s) more clearly or more politely (but seemingly bragging responses do kind of irk me a bit)?

Anyhow, if one assumes that BTC is going to be stagnant for two years, then it would be prudent to pull out two years worth of spending, but a prognosis of flat or down turned BTC prices seems a pretty improbably direction of BTC prices, and just an excited utterance to do something based on emotions of the moment rather than really having a decent plan (or at least sharing aspects of the plan wiht us).... ...

I follow a risk management where bitcoin failing and going to zero is a possibility. and again I did answer your question but you seem to be ignoring it....

In a subsequent post you answered more of my question(s), and I have NO intent to ignore any of your response (on purpose), to the extent that any details are provided.

Additionally, I have NO problem with each of us establishing a plan with which we are comfortable. I am NOT really very clear about your plan, and I do NOT necessarily need to know many details - especially, if you are reluctant to share such. Further, I have made my various points of concern regarding what I understood about your plan in my previous posts, and if you are comfortable that your plan is adequate, then so be it, for you.

By the way, I agree with you point about the considerations being greatly different for investors depending upon their average BTC buy-in price... and a guy in the red will be considering the matter differently from a guy in the black and a guy who is in the black by 10% will be thinking differently from a buy who is in the black by 4,000% or some other such number. I do NOT concede that percentage ahead or behind completely changes the analysis, but it does bring additional considerations to any such analysis about how to proceed.

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 07:08:28 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on June 14, 2014, 07:06:50 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 07:05:28 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 07:01:37 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 06:46:46 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 06:42:30 PM

Quote from: tarmi on June 14, 2014, 06:34:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 06:27:20 PM

.................

. but you do NOT really have much of a plan for where you are going

wtf? he is running to the hills, why so annoying?

morrowind, elder scrolls?

get a life.

He said that he cashed out half of his BTC yesterday b/c he has a plan to play with the proceeds for two years. I said that his plan seems to be very short sighted, especially given the likely direction of BTC in the next six months. Therefore I asked him where he planned to put his investments, and he failed/refused to answer, and instead stuck to his original framing about how wonderful he is., etc etc etc.. for making so much money, while he left quite a bit on the table through neglect and/or lack of foresight, so it seems.

other posters mentioned morrowind and elder scrolls.... b/c I do NOT know WTF are morrowind and elder scrolls... even though those topics may be relevant. Cheesy

Regarding, "get a life" Yes, we each have lives and we choose how to spend our lives, and part of my life, at the moment includes posting on this forum and responding to relevant issues... and attempting to contribute to the forum (thread) in a productive direction.

I have it in my bank account where I pay my bills and pay for goods with €....

The best of my current bank accounts only pays about 1% interest, and possibly you could get 3 or 4% if you have some kind of premium bank account and if that is what floats your boat, then who am I to say?

BTW, I dont take the interest that the bank gives me, this is against my believes and it is called riba

Pretty stupid of you.

yea sure, being Muslim is stupid Wink

I would NOT call any body stupid or their actions stupid b/c of religion, yet Gingermod seems to make a point (whether sufficiently sensitive or NOT).

I suppose that distinctions can be made - however, investing into bitcoin involves many similar financial principles as loaning money, especially given its limited supply. You buy 100 BTC in 2012 for $10, and then you sell them in 2014 for $600. The value of BTC has appreciated.. and can be considered a form of interest that is shared by the whole BTC community.

Anyhow, it does seem like your religion may be affecting your considerations (in possibly internally contradicting ways), and maybe also that is part of the reason that you are reluctant to get into specifics concerning your having had cashed out half of your stash to cover a two year period of time, when likely more financially prudent approaches could have been made and or considered.

Also, I am speculating somewhat that your religion may be causing you to fail and/or refuse to make some detailed and potentially internally contradictory analysis regarding your financial planning concerning bitcoin.

Again, that is for you to decide those boundaries; however, when you are posting on a board like this, hopefully you realize that many of us are considering these matters without RIBA type influences in our analyses (and investment considerations).

Quote from: justusranvier on June 14, 2014, 07:39:27 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 07:32:40 PM

I would NOT call any body stupid or their actions stupid b/c of religion

Joining cults isn't an issue of intelligence. It's more a reflection of emotional health vs injury.

Yes, but frequently religion, cultish beliefs or behaviors and/or superstitions are so ingrained into people's upbringing that I find it very difficult to blame them for it... especially, NOT right off the bat. Now, if I engage with someone for a while, and they persist with certain kinds of idiocracy, then I may choose to engage them on the topic.. it depends upon the circumstances.. sometimes, it may be better just to live and to let live, rather than to engage (that goes for sex, politics and religion - and possibly some other personally sensitive topics, as well - eg. .. feelings about bitcoin.. hehehe.. just kidding.. Cheesy

)

Quote from: Blitz on June 14, 2014, 07:46:05 PM

Bitcoin cultists accusing religious people of being cultists? At least when it comes to religion, people are usually indoctrinated from birth and have massive social pressures (there are hardly people who convert). Now becoming a cultist of your own free will, that's something else.

Here we go again with these bullshit assertions that bitcoin believers or enthusiasts are some how engaging in religious and/or cultish behaviors....

You are ridiculous Blitz.. to be coming up with and spreading this baloney.. and you are supposed to be a moderator, no? That's what it says next to your name... and avatar...

By the way Blitz... since you are a moderator and in the "know," can you make it so that I can have an avatar too? (after I just insulted you... he he hehe? Angry

)

Quote from: Blitz on June 14, 2014, 07:46:05 PM

Also, I don't think there is any disadvantage in investment being Muslim, what does it matter if he gets 0% instead of 1% interest? Nothing.

HELLO!!!!!

Even though 0% and 1% were presented as current potential bank interest rate options, NO one, with any kind of financial astuteness above the level of a drunken teenager, should reasonably be considering keeping large sums of moneys in any bank account(s) for two years.. that seems to be very financially irresponsible, unless there is some kind of explanation concerning why that seems to be a necessary or prudent course of action.

Quote from: darlidada on June 14, 2014, 07:51:01 PM

Quote from: ChrisML on June 14, 2014, 07:39:40 PM

Even here we are talking about religion. FML.

Religion=hate spreading
Religion=war
religion=racism.

Making choices based on religion on a stock/crypto market, that is a whole New level of stupidity.

Goodluck going bankrupt.

Small hint: religion has brought shit for hundreds of years, that wont change a bit

Small hint: today's religion is the idolatry of money. Printing money may have caused more death than any religion. During the 20th century, if we wouldnt have been off the gold standard, we would have had way shorter wars, way less debt and way less environmental problem.

People have been bashing religion since the 19th century. It's old news. Its not a rebel act anymore. Everyone is doing it.

You are engaging in very fuzzy logic if you are attempting to equate the pursuit of money as if it were a religion - even though both may share some components... You are simply over-simplifying the matter.

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 07:51:08 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 07:32:40 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 07:08:28 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on June 14, 2014, 07:06:50 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 07:05:28 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 07:01:37 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 06:46:46 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 06:42:30 PM

Quote from: tarmi on June 14, 2014, 06:34:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 06:27:20 PM

.................

. but you do NOT really have much of a plan for where you are going

wtf? he is running to the hills, why so annoying?

morrowind, elder scrolls?

get a life.

He said that he cashed out half of his BTC yesterday b/c he has a plan to play with the proceeds for two years. I said that his plan seems to be very short sighted, especially given the likely direction of BTC in the next six months. Therefore I asked him where he planned to put his investments, and he failed/refused to answer, and instead stuck to his original framing about how wonderful he is., etc etc etc.. for making so much money, while he left quite a bit on the table through neglect and/or lack of foresight, so it seems.

other posters mentioned morrowind and elder scrolls.... b/c I do NOT know WTF are morrowind and elder scrolls... even though those topics may be relevant. Cheesy

Regarding, "get a life" Yes, we each have lives and we choose how to spend our lives, and part of my life, at the moment includes posting on this forum and responding to relevant issues... and attempting to contribute to the forum (thread) in a productive direction.

I have it in my bank account where I pay my bills and pay for goods with €....

The best of my current bank accounts only pays about 1% interest, and possibly you could get 3 or 4% if you have some kind of premium bank account and if that is what floats your boat, then who am I to say?

BTW, I dont take the interest that the bank gives me, this is against my believes and it is called riba

Pretty stupid of you.

yea sure, being Muslim is stupid Wink

I would NOT call any body stupid or their actions stupid b/c of religion, yet Gingermod seems to make a point (whether sufficiently sensitive or NOT).

I suppose that distinctions can be made - however, investing into bitcoin involves many similar financial principles as loaning money, especially given its limited supply. You buy 100 BTC in 2012 for $10, and then you sell them in 2014 for $600. The value of BTC has appreciated.. and can be considered a form of interest-1 that is shared by the whole BTC community.

Anyhow, it does seem like your religion may be affecting your considerations (in possibly internally contradicting ways), and maybe also that is part of the reason that you are reluctant to get into specifics concerning your having had cashed out half of your stash to cover a two year period of time, when likely more financially prudent approaches could have been made and or considered.

Also, I am speculating somewhat that your religion may be causing you to fail and/or refuse to make some detailed and potentially internally contradictory analysis regarding your financial planning concerning bitcoin. -2

Again, that is for you to decide those boundaries; however, when you are posting on a board like this, hopefully you realize that many of us are considering these matters without RIBA type influences in our analyses (and investment considerations).

1- nope, you are wrong that is called supply and demand and not interest.

interest is when you need $100K to buy a house and I agree on giving you a loan with a condition to give me back $120K... the 20K is interest and I don't believe in it, what I could do is to buy the house and give it in a lease way, so you live in it while I am the owner for the next 20-25 years until you pay your debts and become the owner. and this is where leasing come from BTW.

It is NOT likely that we are going to agree on these various intellectual distinctions that you want to make in order to rationalize your behavior. In the end, you have your various values and your various ways of conceiving your values and how to consider whether your money is appreciating or depreciating in value and whether that methodology is acceptable for you.

Ultimately, it would probably be a big waste of time for us to attempt to sort this kind of thinking out and to make these kind of distinctions in this thread b/c these kinds of distinctions would probably confuse various readers (including ourselves) beyond any utility that we may gain to better understand what we personally should do in order to apply an acceptable financial model or strategy for investing our money into various assets or asset classes.

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 07:51:08 PM

2-I firstly use my logic and then the values that I took from my religion ( I am not a Muslim fanatic BTW, I am far from being a Muslim when it comes to sharia but I still have many values from being an Arab Muslim )

Surely, each of us have various religious and/or ethical and/or perceived legal boundaries that will cause us to place limits on how far we will go to personally profit.. or whether we attempt to manipulate or influence the behavior of others or to merely make ourself (ves) as a role model for others to emulate. To the extent that you are allowing various kinds of beliefs about the impropriety of earning interest or participating in forms of usury, these kinds of concepts and limitations seem to be much beyond the considerations of a lot of others participating in this thread and forum. Surely, you can apply these kinds of concepts to yourself and proclaim to your self that you are a moderate all that you want; however, if you are incorporating these ideas into your approach(es) about bitcoin and/or your future planning concerning your bitcoin proceedings, it seems likely that most people here are going to be merely distracted by these kinds religious limitations concerning interest and whether one kind of investment is ok .and another kind of investment is NOT., based on religious beliefs... In my humble bumble opinion, that just seems too personal to be muddying up the thread with those kinds of personal considerations.

Quote from: gizmoh on June 14, 2014, 07:51:47 PM

This is a nice read for those who do not grasp the issue of concentration of power into one mining pool.

http://hackingdistributed.com/2014/06/13/time-for-a-hard-bitcoin-fork/

Excerpts:

But the fact is, this is a monumental event. The Bitcoin narrative, based on decentralization and distributed trust, is no more. True, the Bitcoin economy is about as healthy as it was yesterday, and the Bitcoin price will likely remain afloat for quite a while. But the Bitcoin economy and price are trailing indicators. The core pillar of the Bitcoin value equation has collapsed.

Worse, GHash has a well-known track record of actually engaging in double-spend attacks even when they did not command a majority of the hashing power. GHash used its hashing power to attack a gambling site that accepted 0-confirmation transactions. In essence, they would make a bet, as in red-or-black in roulette, and if the virtual roulette wheel spin came out the wrong way, they would cancel their losing bet and place a new one. This is outright theft: GHash stole from a gambling operator.

Even though the article appears to be pretty well written, the whole concept seems like the attempt to spread FUD and to place way too much weight on some kind of dark cloud that could exist, but is unlikely to exist in the real world.

Accordingly, Gizmoh, are you selling all your bitcoins while the price is in the $560s or are you just going to hang out here for a while (maybe a year or two) and edumacate us regarding the inevitable downfall of bitcoin (while the prices are going up.... hopefully, soon)? Oh.. and Gizmoh.. .dont miss out on the next buying opportunity created from this various FUD spreading... so then maybe you can sell at $1k or $2k rather than selling at $560.

Probably, we are NOT getting rid of you soon... That's too bad... Angry

Quote from: Blitz on June 14, 2014, 07:54:31 PM

Quote from: gizmoh on June 14, 2014, 07:51:47 PM

This is a nice read for those who do not grasp the issue of concentration of power into one mining pool.

http://hackingdistributed.com/2014/06/13/time-for-a-hard-bitcoin-fork/

Excerpts:

But the fact is, this is a monumental event. The Bitcoin narrative, based on decentralization and distributed trust, is no more. True, the Bitcoin economy is about as healthy as it was yesterday, and the Bitcoin price will likely remain afloat for quite a while. But the Bitcoin economy and price are trailing indicators. The core pillar of the Bitcoin value equation has collapsed.

Worse, GHash has a well-known track record of actually engaging in double-spend attacks even when they did not command a majority of the hashing power. GHash used its hashing power to attack a gambling site that accepted 0-confirmation transactions. In essence, they would make a bet, as in red-or-black in roulette, and if the virtual roulette wheel spin came out the wrong way, they would cancel their losing bet and place a new one. This is outright theft: GHash stole from a gambling operator.

I was led to believe by the starry-eyed bull tards that it's all nothing but FUD.

Hey Blitz.... I am very excited to notice that you got rid of that misleading definition of FUD from your signature ... that is great!!!!

In order that we can better understand the meaning of your statement, above, are you now back to using the commonly accepted meaning of FUD? That is "fear, uncertainty and doubt"?

Quote from: smiley123 on June 14, 2014, 08:00:38 PM

For anyone that can understand Italian, here is a youtube of a bitcoin hearing by the Italian government. I think the live part is over, but this just happened today. If it still says "live" then you will need to rewind and skip the history part to get to the hearing.

Diretta canale satellitare della Camera dei deputati:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5h-KfwC4aI

Can you say the overall punchline of it, especially since it is in Italian?

Was the proceeding positive?

Was it just gathering evidence for consideration of the government concerning future legislation?

Can you help us out a little with some kind of overview?

Quote from: Gingermod on June 14, 2014, 08:02:01 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on June 14, 2014, 07:39:27 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 07:32:40 PM

I would NOT call any body stupid or their actions stupid b/c of religion

Joining cults isn't an issue of intelligence. It's more a reflection of emotional health vs injury.

Studies say otherwise. There has been a negative correlation between religion and IQ for the majority of test subjects.

Well, you are probably correct, overall, but still it is NOT really a good idea or practice to suggest someone is stupid, merely b/c s/he is religious or merely b/c studies say that it is likely that s/he is stupid or even one or two comments from him/her tend to support that the person may be stupid. Even if, in the end, the person really is stupid, it does NOT seem to be a very good idea to call the person stupid, that just causes inflammation.. even if the assertion is true.

So, I do NOT necessarily disagree with you, that you may be correct, I just have some troubles with inflammatory oversimplification(s), but I will grant that sometimes inflammatory oversimplifications may make the point(s) more quickly, directly and clearly. Shocked

Quote from: phosphorush on June 14, 2014, 08:09:59 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on June 14, 2014, 08:07:27 PM

Quote from: phosphorush on June 14, 2014, 08:04:30 PM

Quote from: Blitz on June 14, 2014, 07:46:05 PM

Bitcoin cultists accusing religious people of being cultists? At least when it comes to religion, people are usually indoctrinated from birth and have massive social pressures (there are hardly people who convert). Now becoming a cultist of your own free will, that's something else.

Also, I don't think there is any disadvantage in investment being Muslim, what does it matter if he gets 0% instead of 1% interest? Nothing.

Free will is an illusion bro

You're an idiot

Nice, insults are very persuasive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hq_tG5UJMs0

or try reading "consciousness explained" by Daniel Dennett. Cheesy

I understand that there are some illusive aspects to free will, and I have done some of my own research into the topic over the years. Why can't you explain your theory about why free will is illusive?

Personally, I am NOT going to merely throw up my hands and act under some kind of simplified concepts that free will does NOT exist... even though there is a lot of framing and limitations of my circumstances and the circumstances of others by and because of a vast array of social / psychological circumstances.

Quote from: aminorex on June 14, 2014, 08:10:36 PM

Quote from: gizmoh on June 14, 2014, 05:37:17 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 13, 2014, 04:23:53 PM

monkey overslept, but got up in time to say this is a good intraday buy point (12:20pm Eastern)

Monkey is a misleading mammal, gave wrong prediction yesterday Roll Eyes

Arguably yes! Arguably no. Monkey was still short on a dily basis. He just said it was a good intraday entry point. In fact during particularly strong moves he does tend to call out more possible turning points than I think he should. Usually when he picks a turn in the same direction on multiple timescales (like his daily and weekly s&p 500 bearish calls which became aligned on friday 13) the shorter term call is pretty reliable. If he is bearish on a daily basis then any intraday bullish reports that he makes are less reliable than usual. They can still be useful! For example a short term bearish report during a strong uptrend can suggest a time to take profits or hedge efficiently. I usually convert naked options to spreads at such times.

To my lil doggie and me, it seems that you need to spank your monkey. Sometimes I spank my lil doggie, when she engages in inappropriate/damaging behavior(s).

Quote from: Voktar on June 14, 2014, 08:48:30 PM

Dubai could have 400 fully operational Bitcoin ATMs in the next two weeks --> http://bitcoinexaminer.org/dubai-400-fully-operational-bitcoin-atm-two-weeks/?utm_source=twitter

SELL!! SELL!! Bitcoin is over!! We are going to $100!! Poor bears Grin

In the past 5-6 months, I have found this news to be considerably amazing - like how could one city need or use so many bitcoin machines?

If bitcoin were to become a central aspect of the Dubai economy, then 400 ATMs would make sense....

It just remains interesting to me about 400 ATMs going into place in one city when about 99% of the world's population likely does NOT even know what bitcoin is, or at least NOT even invested 1 satoshi into bitcoin.

Quote from: justusranvier on June 14, 2014, 08:57:54 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on June 14, 2014, 08:02:01 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on June 14, 2014, 07:39:27 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 07:32:40 PM

I would NOT call any body stupid or their actions stupid b/c of religion

Joining cults isn't an issue of intelligence. It's more a reflection of emotional health vs injury.

Studies say otherwise. There has been a negative correlation between religion and IQ for the majority of test subjects.

Do I really have to bring up the distinction between correlation and causation?

You just did. Cheesy

Quote from: Blitz on June 14, 2014, 09:29:03 PM

I won't get tired of posting this: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/doomsday-cult-of-bitcoin.html

You do NOT really support any argument that supposedly bitcoin is a cult by citing a 2 month old article that argues that bitcoin is a cult by stating that bitcoin is a cult. It is just a stupid-ass argument to suggest that bitcoin enthusiast are following blindly and that they are true believers and that they are in a fantasy... blah blah blah. The arguments are denigrating, superficial and selectively attempting to paint a picture with little to no evidence, besides maybe some anecdotal evidence and also some feelings that bitcoin feels like a cult.

The involvement of people in bitcoin did start with technological people, yet there already exists more variations in the profiles of adopters, and those adopter profiles are going to become more and more varied as more and more adoptions takes place.. .it is just a phenomenon that is evolving, as you should know better, rather than spreading this superficial information.

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 09:40:52 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 09:21:01 PM

Quote from: Blitz on June 14, 2014, 07:46:05 PM

Bitcoin cultists accusing religious people of being cultists? At least when it comes to religion, people are usually indoctrinated from birth and have massive social pressures (there are hardly people who convert). Now becoming a cultist of your own free will, that's something else.

Here we go again with these bullshit assertions that bitcoin believers or enthusiasts are some how engaging in religious and/or cultish behaviors....

You are ridiculous Blitz.. to be coming up with and spreading this baloney.. and you are supposed to be a moderator, no? That's what it says next to your name... and avatar...

By the way Blitz... since you are a moderator and in the "know," can you make it so that I can have an avatar too? (after I just insulted you... he he hehe? Angry

)

Quote from: Blitz on June 14, 2014, 07:46:05 PM

Also, I don't think there is any disadvantage in investment being Muslim, what does it matter if he gets 0% instead of 1% interest? Nothing.

HELLO!!!!!

Even though 0% and 1% were presented as current potential bank interest rate options, NO one, with any kind of financial astuteness above the level of a drunken teenager, should reasonably be considering keeping large sums of moneys in any bank account(s) for two years.. that seems to be very financially irresponsible, unless there is some kind of explanation concerning why that seems to be a necessary or prudent course of action.

Ok, you think you got it all figured out but you have no fucking idea of what you are talking about ( at least in my case)..... I don't know how old you are or what kind of a life you have but when you have a family and kids you tempt to chose the safest way to make sure they will have a roof and food and a good education for as long as you can... now if you think leaving potential profits in a high risk investment like Bitcoin without making any risk management is the way to go then you do it, I believe otherwise.

Yes, you have already inadequately made your case for your supposed cashing out strategy and your tactics by NOT explaining what you are doing with very much specifics, and then when I suggested that you are lacking any kind of meaningful plan (b/c I do NOT know it) you have gotten on the defensive by suggesting that I do NOT know your details (that you have refused to provide).

Of course, I do NOT know your particular case b/c you did NOT describe your case in advance, but merely began to brag that you are cashing out half your BTC stash... etc. etc.. and that you will be living in la la land for 2 years etc etc which makes nearly NO sense at the current time.. at least your explanation so far makes LITTLE to NO sense.. except that you seem to be acting out of desperation and you want a quick pay out.. in other words you seem to be panic selling.. and fine.. NOTHING wrong with that... if that's what floats your boat.

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 09:40:52 PM

I didn't invest the first time I knew about Bitcoin it took me a while to understand what the hell it is and to be honest I didn't invest because of the technology, I didn't give a fuck about it, I invested (risked my initial investment) because of the fair potential of making huge profits out of it, it seemed like free money for me.

Yeah, you got in way before me, so good for you. You have experienced some good luck, and good timing and it is good that you were able to figure it out quickly that you were going to invest.

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 09:40:52 PM

now in case Bitcoin will fail which is possible I will have some time to figure out things before it is all fucked up, if you have all your funds in Bitcoin and no liquid cash in the bank then good luck if anything wrong happens, in fact I always keep enough cash in my bank account just in case, but IMHO investing all your funds in stocks and metals... and being over optimistic about it is just stupid.

Currently, I only have 5-10% of my total investment in BTC, so I would NOT have taken such a high risk in the first place to put a large portion of my money into BTC... and maybe that is why you are getting a quick pay out b/c you bet and your bet went the right direction. I am more of a long term planner, and I employ dollar cost averaging over a variety of investments. I only began to read about bitcoin in November 2013, and then I began investing at that point..... slowly.. .. anyway, I have been adding more to my portfolio recently.. so yes, we are in different places concerning our respective portfolios.

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 09:40:52 PM

beside, invest only what you can afford to lose, at this point I would hate my self if I lost 100% instead of 50% got it now ? risk management...

Yep.. I follow that philosophy too concerning NOT over extending myself regarding my investments.. and I have NO problem with my investment plan(s) regarding BTC or the level of my investment and/or diversification.

As you likely realize from reading this response, I still stand by my previous comment(s).... concerning your plan, and I have been fairly tolerant in giving you the benefit of the doubt concerning your plan(s) and why you did it. You have NOT really explained, except to take a preachy tone to suggest that somehow I am NOT understanding the sophistication of you methodology. If you read my various previous responses, then likely you would understand better the crux of the issue regarding your seeming to bail out of half of your BTC at a weird time... and that seems to be your assessment of the situation.. so all the more power to you.

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 09:55:55 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 09:41:50 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 14, 2014, 07:51:08 PM

2-I firstly use my logic and then the values that I took from my religion ( I am not a Muslim fanatic BTW, I am far from being a Muslim when it comes to sharia but I still have many values from being an Arab Muslim )

Surely, each of us have various religious and/or ethical and/or perceived legal boundaries that will cause us to place limits on how far we will go to personally profit.. or whether we attempt to manipulate or influence the behavior of others or to merely make ourself (ves) as a role model for others to emulate. To the extent that you are allowing various kinds of beliefs about the impropriety of earning interest or participating in forms of usury, these kinds of concepts and limitations seem to be much beyond the considerations of a lot of others participating in this thread and forum. Surely, you can apply these kinds of concepts to yourself and proclaim to your self that you are a moderate all that you want; however, if you are incorporating these ideas into your approach(es) about bitcoin and/or your future planning concerning your bitcoin proceedings, it seems likely that most people here are going to be merely distracted by these kinds religious limitations concerning interest and whether one kind of investment is ok .and another kind of investment is NOT., based on religious beliefs... In my humble bumble opinion, that just seems too personal to be muddying up the thread with those kinds of personal considerations.

I didn't give any advice or any guidance about any investment, I decided upon my personal beliefs, but only when you insisted about knowing I told you, as far as I am concerned it is still a personal choice that somehow you don't like !!!! so next time you start writing about how my believes and my values and my personal choices doesn't fit your logic or the thread logic you must remember that they involves me and only me and they don't effect your life or the life of anyone except me.... got it ? this is where our freedom of choice comes from and no one should cross the lines. your freedom stops when others freedom starts.

I'm NOT imposing anything on you, and this happens to be a public thread. I also have NOTHING against you. I will maintain; however, that you seem to be missing various details in your explanations, and accordingly, we seem to agree that several of the specifics of your investment plans (to the extent that any plan exists) may NOT be applicable to too many other people b/c financially, they have NOT been explained very well. Yet, they may be fine and dandy for you. I have NO problem wishing you Good luck with your choices.

Quote from: meanig on June 14, 2014, 09:59:50 PM

Quote from: Blitz on June 14, 2014, 07:54:31 PM

Quote from: gizmoh on June 14, 2014, 07:51:47 PM

This is a nice read for those who do not grasp the issue of concentration of power into one mining pool.

http://hackingdistributed.com/2014/06/13/time-for-a-hard-bitcoin-fork/

Excerpts:

But the fact is, this is a monumental event. The Bitcoin narrative, based on decentralization and distributed trust, is no more. True, the Bitcoin economy is about as healthy as it was yesterday, and the Bitcoin price will likely remain afloat for quite a while. But the Bitcoin economy and price are trailing indicators. The core pillar of the Bitcoin value equation has collapsed.

Worse, GHash has a well-known track record of actually engaging in double-spend attacks even when they did not command a majority of the hashing power. GHash used its hashing power to attack a gambling site that accepted 0-confirmation transactions. In essence, they would make a bet, as in red-or-black in roulette, and if the virtual roulette wheel spin came out the wrong way, they would cancel their losing bet and place a new one. This is outright theft: GHash stole from a gambling operator.

I was led to believe by the starry-eyed bull tards that it's all nothing but FUD.

And in November 2013 I was led to believe by the douche who wrote the article (Emin Gün Sirer) that Bitcoin should be dead and buried by now.

Quote

Bitcoin is broken. And not just superficially so, but fundamentally, at the core protocol level. We're not talking about a simple buffer overflow here, or even a badly designed API that can be easily patched; instead, the problem is intrinsic to the entire way Bitcoin works. All other cryptocurrencies and schemes based on the same Bitcoin idea, including Litecoin, Namecoin, and any of the other few dozen Bitcoin-inspired currencies, are broken as well.

Specifically, in a paper we placed on arXiv, Ittay Eyal and I outline an attack by which a minority group of miners can obtain revenues in excess of their fair share, and grow in number until they reach a majority. When this point is reached, the Bitcoin value-proposition collapses: the currency comes under the control of a single entity; it is no longer decentralized; the controlling entity can determine who participates in mining and which transactions are committed, and can even roll back transactions at will. This snowball scenario does not require an ill-intentioned Bond-style villain to launch; it can take place as the collaborative result of people trying to earn a bit more money for their mining efforts.

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/

The guy has a history of spreading baseless bullshit to garner clicks. Just like the case of Professor Bitcorn, trolling Bitcoin seems to be good for an academic CV.

Yes, and Blitz seems to add to the same FUD by circulating it and suggesting that there may be some validity to it.

Quote from: fonzie on June 14, 2014, 10:08:31 PM

JayJuanGee will you show some mercy, and shut the fuck up? PLZ! kthx byebye

I must be crowding you out of the meaningful bitcoin conversation.. sorry about that, dude...

NOT

Quote from: Pruden on June 14, 2014, 10:43:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2014, 09:53:29 PM

Hey Blitz.... I am very excited to notice that you got rid of that misleading definition of FUD from your signature ... that is great!!!!

In order that we can better understand the meaning of your statement, above, are you now back to using the commonly accepted meaning of FUD? That is "fear, uncertainty and doubt"?

Dude, I know bitcoins can't buy everything but please do get a sense of humour.

Dude.. .I should have put a smiley face... Grin

However, my comment above to Blitz was mostly serious... with only a very slight sense of humor.. so therefore I did NOT put any smiley face.. I'm gonna try to watch more TV and that might help...

Quote from: Gingermod on June 15, 2014, 04:49:24 AM

Quote from: phosphorush on June 14, 2014, 08:09:59 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on June 14, 2014, 08:07:27 PM

Quote from: phosphorush on June 14, 2014, 08:04:30 PM

Quote from: Blitz on June 14, 2014, 07:46:05 PM

Bitcoin cultists accusing religious people of being cultists? At least when it comes to religion, people are usually indoctrinated from birth and have massive social pressures (there are hardly people who convert). Now becoming a cultist of your own free will, that's something else.

Also, I don't think there is any disadvantage in investment being Muslim, what does it matter if he gets 0% instead of 1% interest? Nothing.

Free will is an illusion bro

You're an idiot

Nice, insults are very persuasive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hq_tG5UJMs0

or try reading "consciousness explained" by Daniel Dennett. Cheesy

You're an idiot

Gingermod: Keeping it short and sweet. Cheesy

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 15, 2014, 07:42:22 AM

Quote from: Wolf Rainer on June 15, 2014, 06:54:11 AM

Why is still going down?

Because people are extremely scared. As soon as the price goes up someone will dump on it, Chinese FUD will be posted, a pool reaches 51% etc. There are people working non stop on trying to take the value of Bitcoin down and right now they control the market. Any hint of bad news atm and the sheep completely panic. A lot of the selling currently is because of "i better sell now before someone else sells". As always the idiots create their own problem. Of course this will change again but when...nobody knows.

BUY, BUY, BUY and HODL

Quote from: Erdogan on June 15, 2014, 11:49:19 AM

Quote from: Blitz on June 15, 2014, 11:28:58 AM

It's a really tiresome statement. You do lose if the price goes down and you haven't realized the loss. You have fewer options now. You have no access to your former wealth and your purchasing power has declined. Will it be undone in the future? Maybe. But you are trapped in the present.

Remember, everything is still denominated in FILTHY FIAT.

Denominated in whatever, I have a loss from the ATH till now. Had I sold at ATH, I would have more value. It's a loss. You have the same with a house, if it goes down even temporarily. There are lots of excuses, like I can still live in it and so on. The difference is that the house is in a thin market, and you know the value only when you sell it (if then, you still have the excuse of bad luck). Bitcoin is a thick market, there are always buyers. The mantra of "it's not a loss until you sell" is a deception.

Its only a loss also if you bought at some higher price - otherwise it is a failure to realize a gain. or failure to make a profit, which is NOT the same as a loss.... You can call it a loss all you like and attempt to conceptualize a loss and a failure to realize a gain as the same thing, but they are NOT the same thing... that is fuzzy logic and failure and/or refusal to recognize the difference between two similar things...

Let's say that buy a piece of gold for $10, and the value of the gold goes to $20, then it goes down to $5... however i still have the gold. I have NOT gained or lost anything until I cash out. I could have gained $10, but that is NOT a loss, and I could have lost $5, but that is NOT a loss, until I actually sell. IT is really misleading to attempt to describe all of these as losses, if you have NOT cashed out yet.

Now it is possible that the value of the piece of gold will go to $1 and never return to $5, $10, or $20... but until it is sold, the amount of the loss or the failure to gain is speculation.. until locked in.

Quote from: Tzupy on June 15, 2014, 12:49:16 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 15, 2014, 12:40:11 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 15, 2014, 12:03:28 PM

It boggles my mind that the trend is like this with the sheer amount of new and large business that have adopted bitcoin lately.

Most of those businesses did not adopt bitcoin at all. They merely agreed to accept dollars from the sale of bitcoins that people already had, including cheap coins that had been dormant since 2013 or earlier.

Bitpay expansion does little to increase adoption; it chiefly makes it easier and more tempting for long-time investors to sell some of their coins on the open market.

Many people don't understand that there are 2 bitcoin economies: the original SR and like one, and the newer, legitimizing economy using Bitpay.
But why would an early adopter (who bought below 20$) buy back with fiat the bitcoin that he spends today, at a 550$ market price?
The smart thing to do, in order to buy back 1 BTC, would be to sell 4 BTC when a downtrend is obvious and then buy back 5 - 6 BTC (just an example) at a lower price.

They would buy back at $550 or more only if they think or believe the price is going higher than $550 and is likely to remain above $550.

Quote from: Erdogan on June 15, 2014, 03:49:11 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 15, 2014, 03:34:08 PM

Quote from: Erdogan on June 15, 2014, 11:49:19 AM

Quote from: Blitz on June 15, 2014, 11:28:58 AM

It's a really tiresome statement. You do lose if the price goes down and you haven't realized the loss. You have fewer options now. You have no access to your former wealth and your purchasing power has declined. Will it be undone in the future? Maybe. But you are trapped in the present.

Remember, everything is still denominated in FILTHY FIAT.

Denominated in whatever, I have a loss from the ATH till now. Had I sold at ATH, I would have more value. It's a loss. You have the same with a house, if it goes down even temporarily. There are lots of excuses, like I can still live in it and so on. The difference is that the house is in a thin market, and you know the value only when you sell it (if then, you still have the excuse of bad luck). Bitcoin is a thick market, there are always buyers. The mantra of "it's not a loss until you sell" is a deception.

Its only a loss also if you bought at some higher price - otherwise it is a failure to realize a gain. or failure to make a profit, which is NOT the same as a loss.... You can call it a loss all you like and attempt to conceptualize a loss and a failure to realize a gain as the same thing, but they are NOT the same thing... that is fuzzy logic and failure and/or refusal to recognize the difference between two similar things...

Let's say that buy a piece of gold for $10, and the value of the gold goes to $20, then it goes down to $5... however i still have the gold. I have NOT gained or lost anything until I cash out. I could have gained $10, but that is NOT a loss, and I could have lost $5, but that is NOT a loss, until I actually sell. IT is really misleading to attempt to describe all of these as losses, if you have NOT cashed out yet.

Now it is possible that the value of the piece of gold will go to $1 and never return to $5, $10, or $20... but until it is sold, the amount of the loss or the failure to gain is speculation.. until locked in.

It is a gain even if you have not realized the gain by selling. Its a loss when it goes down. That is the point. The value you have is fluid.

When you realize, gain or loss, you still have to have it in some form of good or money. So you can never lean back and say that you have secured your funds. That is why you have to conclude, in the quest for value, the winner is the one who have the most when he dies.

The winner is the one who has a plan and lives within his/her means and enjoys the comfort of such.... or the winner could be the one who lives off of the credit of others and in debt, but spends it all when s/he dies... There are a lot of ways to define winner in regard to expectations and disappointment... if you are living and framing your position in life in such a way that you feel that you are a loser and that you are losing out, then likely you are NOT going to be able to perceive your situation as being a winner.

Maybe all of this perception about whether you are a winner or a loser does NOT matter too much b/c each of us will have our own conceptions, yet that does NOT change my point above regarding you are NOT losing anything merely b/c you fail to gain... until you cash out or have to cash out.... before you cash out, the loss or the failure to gain is merely "on paper."

Quote from: justusranvier on June 15, 2014, 10:44:56 PM

Quote from: bitrider on June 15, 2014, 10:13:04 PM

Quote from: HerrAndreas on June 15, 2014, 09:58:29 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 15, 2014, 07:21:55 PM

Quote from: Sandia on June 15, 2014, 05:52:40 PM

Objectively, what are our chances of going lower? I can throw in some fiat and buy some coins, but this is probably the last time I will be buying for 6 months or a year. Ignoring the trolls, is there a legitimate chance of hitting $500?

DO NOT take any advice from anybody here! Don't ever ask other people here what to do with your money! I know you see all these lines and charts and mainly bears who act like they know it all but i can guarantee you that not a single person here knows where Bitcoin will go. Every bear here will tell you we will see 100% sure 500 again. That's because they're sad little creatures who do nothing but lie and manipulate because they want the price to go down.
The bulls obviously want the price to go up but will be a bit more modest and say we'll likely won't see 500 again. Either way any info you'll get is coloured and worthless.
The fact that you want to invest in Bitcoin means you believe it will be worth more in the future. If you do then you should buy. 500 or 560 is meaningless in the long run if this thing takes off. If you don't think it will take off then don't. Waiting is kinda pointless because again nobody knows what it will do.

now that is what sound advice looks like.

+1 Can't be said often enough.

How to profit from Bitcoin:

1) Buy Bitcoins
2) Hold them for two years
3) Note how much you've gained in real terms over the last two years, and be honest about how much less you'd have had you daytraded
4) Keep hodling

And begin to skim profits... (if you have NOT already been doing so)... b/c the price has gone up at least 4 times your initial investment

Quote from: Krabby on June 16, 2014, 12:30:17 AM

Quote from: Kupsi on June 16, 2014, 12:15:41 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 15, 2014, 07:21:55 PM

Quote from: Sandia on June 15, 2014, 05:52:40 PM

Objectively, what are our chances of going lower? I can throw in some fiat and buy some coins, but this is probably the last time I will be buying for 6 months or a year. Ignoring the trolls, is there a legitimate chance of hitting $500?

DO NOT take any advice from anybody here! Don't ever ask other people here what to do with your money! I know you see all these lines and charts and mainly bears who act like they know it all but i can guarantee you that not a single person here knows where Bitcoin will go. Every bear here will tell you we 100% sure will see 500 again. That's because they're sad little creatures who do nothing but lie and manipulate because they want the price to go down.
The bulls obviously want the price to go up but will be a bit more modest and say we likely won't see 500 again. Either way any info you'll get is coloured and worthless.
The fact that you want to invest in Bitcoin means you believe it will be worth more in the future. If you do then you should buy. 500 or 560 is meaningless in the long run if this thing takes off. If you don't think it will take off then don't. Waiting is kinda pointless because again nobody knows what it will do.

Yes, don't listen to that advice...

Listen to all advice given here, it's is 100% factual and we can all predict the future!

NOT.... hehehehehehe! Cheesy

Quote from: KFR on June 16, 2014, 05:04:35 AM

I think this is a nice moment to thank ChartBuddy and his chum Richy once again for all of their good work.

Hehehehe.... That is an interesting way of Phrasing the situation. It is like giving automony to chartbuddy, like people like to do... Cheesy

Possibly, I would have said something like, "Richy and his side-kick, ChartBuddy." Though maybe my chosen phraseology would have given too little credit to ChartBuddy?

In any case, thank you to both, whether bots, or NOT.

Quote from: mmitech on June 16, 2014, 01:07:09 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:21:20 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 16, 2014, 12:16:40 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:15:11 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 16, 2014, 12:13:40 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:11:54 PM

What is a 'weak hand'? Why is this type of penny stock terminology used in bitcoin? Does this imply that bitcoin is some type of investment scheme to hold rather than a currency to use?

It's a poker term long before "penny stocks." It means you lack confidence in you ability to play.

So it's a profit making game and not the future of money?

Is money not about profit?

Bitcoin is supposed to be about creating a decentralized network to change the way the world does finance and payments - not about getting all the bitcoin participants to be rich off of the successive waves of bitcoin participants because the unit value rose and having a contest about who made the most profits.

I invested to make money and to be able to reach some goals ( the volatility makes it easier than working hard to earn that money Wink

)... I literally don't give a fuck about the technology behind it, it is a cool innovation and all but I don't think it is a reason for to risk my life savings and be a "strong hand" when I could collect profits and not be a greedy bastard.... most of the time people here will attack you when you tell them that you are trading to make a profit or when you tell them you cashed out some of your holdings....

That is NOT why you were attacked. You were attacked b/c you failed to articulate any plan that made sense to anyone beyond yourself.. and even then, NOT clear if it made sense.

Quote from: Krabby on June 16, 2014, 07:01:11 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 16, 2014, 06:11:14 PM

Quote from: KFR on June 16, 2014, 05:04:35 AM

I think this is a nice moment to thank ChartBuddy and his chum Richy once again for all of their good work.

Hehehehe.... That is an interesting way of Phrasing the situation. It is like giving automony to chartbuddy, like people like to do... Cheesy

Possibly, I would have said something like, "Richy and his side-kick, ChartBuddy." Though maybe my chosen phraseology would have given too little credit to ChartBuddy?

In any case, thank you to both, whether bots, or NOT.

How do I know you're not a bot?

I'm NOT really sure how to verify this kind of question or if it really matters, until possibly if we were to attempt to engage in some kind of communication in which the distinction matters.

Sometimes posters get offended by being accused of being a bot; however, many times the distinction may be irrelevant, unless their is some misrepresention(s) taking place. For example, if a poster states that s/he / it had experience X in the 1990s and experience Y in 2003, and experience Z in 2007; however, such bot was only created and programmed in 2011, then NO such experience would have been had prior to 2011 (and thus various misrepresentations have taken place).

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 16, 2014, 07:28:32 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 16, 2014, 07:22:50 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 16, 2014, 07:07:38 PM

Roger Ver launches bitcoin-based tax evaders paradise:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=654068.msg0

Misleading to the point of libel. I don't think Roger Ver is responsible for the nation-state of St. Kitts & Nevis, or their tax and immigration policies. He launched a web site.

OK, sorry, apologies for the heresy. Tongue

Frequently, I get this sense that you, Jorge, are NOT really sorry for making a multitude of misleading posts b/c there seems to be a pattern of behavior in which you are frequently engaging in such misrepresentations and slants of information to such extreme levels.

Quote from: spooderman on June 16, 2014, 08:45:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 16, 2014, 04:22:43 PM

Quote from: Krabby on June 16, 2014, 12:30:17 AM

Quote from: Kupsi on June 16, 2014, 12:15:41 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 15, 2014, 07:21:55 PM

Quote from: Sandia on June 15, 2014, 05:52:40 PM

Objectively, what are our chances of going lower? I can throw in some fiat and buy some coins, but this is probably the last time I will be buying for 6 months or a year. Ignoring the trolls, is there a legitimate chance of hitting $500?

DO NOT take any advice from anybody here! Don't ever ask other people here what to do with your money! I know you see all these lines and charts and mainly bears who act like they know it all but i can guarantee you that not a single person here knows where Bitcoin will go. Every bear here will tell you we 100% sure will see 500 again. That's because they're sad little creatures who do nothing but lie and manipulate because they want the price to go down.
The bulls obviously want the price to go up but will be a bit more modest and say we likely won't see 500 again. Either way any info you'll get is coloured and worthless.
The fact that you want to invest in Bitcoin means you believe it will be worth more in the future. If you do then you should buy. 500 or 560 is meaningless in the long run if this thing takes off. If you don't think it will take off then don't. Waiting is kinda pointless because again nobody knows what it will do.

Yes, don't listen to that advice...

Listen to all advice given here, it's is 100% factual and we can all predict the future!

NOT.... hehehehehehe! Cheesy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoethxOp5Kg&hd=1

Exactamente!!!!!! I got a very big kick out of that video.

Quote from: ihaveaquestion on June 16, 2014, 11:30:22 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 16, 2014, 01:07:09 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:21:20 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 16, 2014, 12:16:40 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:15:11 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 16, 2014, 12:13:40 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:11:54 PM

What is a 'weak hand'? Why is this type of penny stock terminology used in bitcoin? Does this imply that bitcoin is some type of investment scheme to hold rather than a currency to use?

It's a poker term long before "penny stocks." It means you lack confidence in you ability to play.

So it's a profit making game and not the future of money?

Is money not about profit?

Bitcoin is supposed to be about creating a decentralized network to change the way the world does finance and payments - not about getting all the bitcoin participants to be rich off of the successive waves of bitcoin participants because the unit value rose and having a contest about who made the most profits.

I invested to make money and to be able to reach some goals ( the volatility makes it easier than working hard to earn that money Wink

)... I literally don't give a fuck about the technology behind it, it is a cool innovation and all but I don't think it is a reason for to risk my life savings and be a "strong hand" when I could collect profits and not be a greedy bastard.... most of the time people here will attack you when you tell them that you are trading to make a profit or when you tell them you cashed out some of your holdings....

I attacked you because you said you went full LTC which is foolish, LTC is tanking and doomed to fail. If you are considering so, you'd better go full fiat. I have no problem with people who don't see the big picture selling their stash of bitcoins. Enjoy your life.

YES>>>>> Mmitech seems to post about his engaging in several trading activities that are quite foolish, or at least, I have NOTICED that he has a tendency to NOT provided a very clear rationale(s) as to why such a course of action would be applicable to many other investors besides himself or possibly one or two others who wants to gamble in eccentric ways.

Probably the whole behavior or practice would NOT even matter to me, if he did NOT tend to become so self-righteous about what he is describing to be his plan and seem to suggest that since he is doing X, then everyone else should do X... and then he denies that he is making such recommendations...

Quote from: mmitech on June 17, 2014, 10:06:28 AM

Quote from: ihaveaquestion on June 17, 2014, 01:59:29 AM

Quote from: mmitech on June 17, 2014, 01:05:33 AM

Quote from: ihaveaquestion on June 16, 2014, 11:30:22 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 16, 2014, 01:07:09 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:21:20 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 16, 2014, 12:16:40 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:15:11 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 16, 2014, 12:13:40 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:11:54 PM

What is a 'weak hand'? Why is this type of penny stock terminology used in bitcoin? Does this imply that bitcoin is some type of investment scheme to hold rather than a currency to use?

It's a poker term long before "penny stocks." It means you lack confidence in you ability to play.

So it's a profit making game and not the future of money?

Is money not about profit?

Bitcoin is supposed to be about creating a decentralized network to change the way the world does finance and payments - not about getting all the bitcoin participants to be rich off of the successive waves of bitcoin participants because the unit value rose and having a contest about who made the most profits.

I invested to make money and to be able to reach some goals ( the volatility makes it easier than working hard to earn that money Wink

)... I literally don't give a fuck about the technology behind it, it is a cool innovation and all but I don't think it is a reason for to risk my life savings and be a "strong hand" when I could collect profits and not be a greedy bastard.... most of the time people here will attack you when you tell them that you are trading to make a profit or when you tell them you cashed out some of your holdings....

I attacked you because you said you went full LTC which is foolish, LTC is tanking and doomed to fail. If you are considering so, you'd better go full fiat. I have no problem with people who don't see the big picture selling their stash of bitcoins. Enjoy your life.

I want to remind most of you here that it is not your fucking problem what I do with my money or what I think about any investment...it is still my point of view and I don't want to hear that I am being "foolish"... period.

Don't advise people to sell their bitcoins to litecoins and i will stop saying it is foolish. Meanwhile BTC recovered and LTC is approaching 0.016. Remember what i told you : south 0.01 by the end of the year. Fiat will tank even more than LTC against BTC, but at least it makes sense to go full fiat for a risk adverse person. Don't advise here if you don't want comments on your advices.

I didn't advice anyone about anything and I don't even advice my best friends about any investment, you are just being buthurt because I am trading against your wish .... idiotic.

This is part of mmitech's problem; he seems to NOT understand the various implications or impacts about his own communications.. and possibly he believes that his posting in these threads is like creating his own personal diary and has NO impact upon the world.

Then, he goes on the OFFENSIVE, when he has failed to communicate, and he accuses others of interfering with his vibe, to the extent that he has any vibe. OH.... MY!!!!!!! Wink

Quote from: spooderman on June 17, 2014, 06:26:25 PM

Quote from: coinmaster222 on June 17, 2014, 04:42:09 PM

Were balancing around 600 for days now. I feel safe to post this.

Lol excellent. Funny pictures and tongue in cheek TA are the only reasons I come to this thread. I like to see this stuff, the pages and pages of pyramids made by mmitech and jayonejee gets pretty boring Sad

I'll say WTVR, to the extent that there is a ref to me.... Cheesy

Quote from: Parazyd on June 17, 2014, 08:38:22 PM

Quote from: spooderman on June 17, 2014, 08:36:32 PM

I feel like Cartman in that episode where he freezes himself in order to not have to wait for a new games console to come out.

Freeze me! And thaw me when we're at 2k+! Watching this farting about at 600 is boooooooring.

I'd rather go back 4-5 years in time... Although some cryo wouldn't be bad either Grin

Both ideas are MAJOR fantasies.

Let's SNAP OUT OF IT!!!!!!!!!

Quote from: Miz4r on June 18, 2014, 12:26:42 AM

Quote from: nxtbabybaby on June 18, 2014, 12:24:11 AM

BTC is becoming centralized. Viva NXT and NEM...

Be careful or you will end up like that Ripple fanboy who kept spamming this thread telling people to buy Ripple.. and then XRP crashed and he was never heard of again. Tongue

Yeah...whatever happened to that spammer/troller, Mah87,,,, ?

Quote from: Erdogan on June 18, 2014, 08:25:46 AM

Millions of BTC have been found, and while we wait for the 300 K USD₂₀₁₄ coins, they have to be parked in some wallets.

It's a dirty job, but someone's got to do it!

Yeah!!! That's what I am thinking. Several of us quasi-early adopters are going to be reverted to the status of quasi bitcoin banks.. b/c we will hold the supply of a very valuable and needed asset.

Quote from: mmitech on June 18, 2014, 10:34:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 18, 2014, 10:33:44 AM

Quote from: mmitech on June 16, 2014, 01:07:09 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:21:20 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 16, 2014, 12:16:40 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:15:11 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 16, 2014, 12:13:40 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:11:54 PM

What is a 'weak hand'? Why is this type of penny stock terminology used in bitcoin? Does this imply that bitcoin is some type of investment scheme to hold rather than a currency to use?

It's a poker term long before "penny stocks." It means you lack confidence in you ability to play.

So it's a profit making game and not the future of money?

Is money not about profit?

Bitcoin is supposed to be about creating a decentralized network to change the way the world does finance and payments - not about getting all the bitcoin participants to be rich off of the successive waves of bitcoin participants because the unit value rose and having a contest about who made the most profits.

I invested to make money and to be able to reach some goals ( the volatility makes it easier than working hard to earn that money Wink

)... I literally don't give a fuck about the technology behind it, it is a cool innovation and all but I don't think it is a reason for to risk my life savings and be a "strong hand" when I could collect profits and not be a greedy bastard.... most of the time people here will attack you when you tell them that you are trading to make a profit or when you tell them you cashed out some of your holdings....

That is NOT why you were attacked. You were attacked b/c you failed to articulate any plan that made sense to anyone beyond yourself.. and even then, NOT clear if it made sense.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=656657.0

I've attempted to make a quick response within that thread, and to also respond to the poll to the extent any of the answers come close to what is really happening here.

In essence, the mere fact that you spending a lot of time publicly discussing this matter in various threads seems to demonstrate that you do NOT really know the fuck what you are talking about or even that you have adequately analyzed or understood your own position nor your plan.

I am NOT sure whether you have bad intents, so in that regard, I feel sorry for some of your ignorance... and lack of recognition of your own inabilities to know when to stop and when you likely need to spend some private time figuring out what you are doing and why you are doing it in order that you can explain.. to the extent that you end up continuing to post these kinds of matters in public threads....

Otherwise, you decisions regarding your investments or lack thereof in BTC or in other crypto-currencies are your own private concerns, and probably it would be better for everyone, including yourself, for you to keep your seemingly stupid-ass ill conceived and inadequately contemplated ideas to yourself... until they are better formulated. That's just my sense of the situation, at the moment, so take it for what it is worth.. and if you are NOT ready, willing or able to understand or to accept my thoughts, then NO problem to just let my comments pass.

Quote from: edwardspitz on June 18, 2014, 09:48:59 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on June 18, 2014, 07:52:11 PM

Quote from: Dragonkiller on June 18, 2014, 07:41:21 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 18, 2014, 07:19:23 PM

Quote from: YogoH on June 18, 2014, 07:12:55 PM

Quote from: beetcoin on June 18, 2014, 07:11:59 PM

Quote from: YogoH on June 18, 2014, 07:06:29 PM

WOW, LEAKED INFO ON BIDDERS FOR US MASHALL BITCOIN AUCTION

Barry Silbert, CEO for SecondMarket

Luther Lowe, director of public policy for Yelp

Malcolm Oluwasanmi, chairperson of Little Phoenix Investment Group

Fabrice Evangelista, quantitative arbitrage at BNP Paribas

Michal Handerhanm, co-founder and COO of Bitcoin Shop

Dave Goel, managing general partner of Matrix Capital Management

Dinuka Samarasinghe, investment professional

Chris DeMuth Jr., Wrangeley Capital

Fred Ehrsam, co-founder, Coinbase

Jonathan Disner, corporate counsel at DRW Trading Group

William Brindise, head investment manager at DigitalBTC

Michael Moro, director at SecondMarket

Jennifer R. Jacoby, lawyer at WilmerHale

Sam Lee, co-founder, Bitcoins Reserve

Avarus Corporation

PLUS YELP AND BNP Paribas (fourth largest bank in world)

source please. looks like a few start-up type people, and not as many wallstreeters as i was hoping for. can't complain though.

This just sample, 37 total

of which 27 are sure to go home empty handed

i'm starting to think people that said they coins might sell at a premium we're right!

I have a feeling one person is going to take the whole lot. The FAQs clarified the auction style.

I'm in the camp who suspects a premium being paid.

I have had the same thoughts. My plan was to buy right before the auction, because I speculated that bidders might end up paying more than the market value at the time of the auction:
1) Because they bid each other up (it will be an easy way to get at large stash and "clean coins" could make it more interesting for banks and other institutions)
2) because they will try to manipulate price down before the auction and push the price up after the auction.

So basically I expected that they might pay a premium at the auction because they know they will be able to get more when they sell them on. When the word gets out that they have payed a premium that will raise the price, so they wont even have to do much (if any) pumping.

I think it will be quite easy for them to manipulate the price. Especially if they work together. If they didn't know who each other are they now know thanks to the article

. I guess it will be bad for the US gov if it turns out they have sold coins at half price.

I'm now thinking this train of thought may be a too speculative (also considering the auction rules), but it will definitely be interesting to what price they will end up paying.

Edit: Clarification

Your point about what is good or bad for the US Government seems to be off base. What the fuck the US Govt. care if it generates 1 million or 100 million from the sale of bitcoins? There are billions of dollars printed every month.

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 18, 2014, 11:35:35 PM

Quote from: bitcoinsrus on June 18, 2014, 11:13:50 PM

Quote from: ArticMine on June 18, 2014, 11:11:33 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 18, 2014, 11:04:40 PM

I can smell a bubble from a mile away, its happening.

Yes the indicators of a bubble building are here. The US government auction could even be the trigger.

Can you explain how the auction could be the trigger. I think if it is, it could get media attention and the big company that buys it uses the coins to start an exchange.

is this your thought process or did you have something else in mind?

everyone sold coins or wired money to exchanges expecting the price to drop

price is : 605

we get close to the day of, lots of press, good press! poeple wire more monies...

price is : 705

the coins are sold and surprize surprize the price doesn't drop!

price is : 805

3 days later we are in full on bubble mode and there's 10million on the side lines wondering why theres no cheap coins to be had Huh

price is : 1600

next week, looks like will Argentina will default on their debts!

Paso's flood the BTC market, its unbelievable how many Pesos there are and no one wants them!

price is : 3200

the cheap coins lovers realize what's happening and panic buy.

price is : 5200

Obama says "bitcoin will save business more money and create new jobs"

the WORLD PANIC BUYS ALL THE BITCOINS!!!!!!!!!!!

price is : 52,000$

Millions of people are seriously pissed off at wall street for acting so slowly

the people want there bitcoins! NOW!

wall street acts swiftly to respond to the overwhelming demand

its not enough!
its not enough!
its not enough!

the poeple demand MORE MORE MORE!

Price is now : 520,000$

So, even with my one bitcoin I will become a half a millionaire? WOW!!!!

Quote from: Erdogan on June 19, 2014, 07:58:51 AM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 19, 2014, 07:49:01 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on June 19, 2014, 07:47:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuenGee on June 19, 2014, 07:03:48 AM

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. Aenean commodo ligula eget dolor. Aenean massa. Cum sociis natoque penatibus et magnis dis parturient montes, nascetur ridiculus mus. Donec quam felis, ultricies nec, pellentesque eu, pretium quis, sem. Nulla consequat massa quis enim. Donec pede justo, fringilla vel, aliquet nec, vulputate eget, arcu. In enim justo, rhoncus ut, imperdiet a, venenatis vitae, justo. Nullam dictum felis eu pede mollis pretium. Integer tincidunt. Cras dapibus. Vivamus elementum semper nisi. Aenean vulputate eleifend tellus. Aenean leo ligula, porttitor eu, consequat vitae, eleifend ac, enim. Aliquam lorem ante, dapibus in, viverra quis, feugiat a, tellus. Phasellus viverra nulla ut metus varius laoreet.

I agree. Typical wall street slang. They will soon come. You will notice it also on the price.

You really think it'll be like that? Maybe later, but definitely not when they start. Expect surprises.

It can be argued all ways.

This is all Mumbo Jumbo to me, and I do NOT understand what I supposedly said. Huh

Quote from: gotmilk_ on June 19, 2014, 10:33:08 AM

Nice! GoCoin should be more active... Coinbase and Bitbay shouldn't have monopol.

I thought that Circle would soon be coming into this space.... YET, many of us seem to be WAITING, patiently.... or somewhat patiently. Cheesy

Quote from: mmitech on June 19, 2014, 10:44:15 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 19, 2014, 05:10:38 AM

Quote from: mmitech on June 18, 2014, 10:34:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 18, 2014, 10:33:44 AM

Quote from: mmitech on June 16, 2014, 01:07:09 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:21:20 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 16, 2014, 12:16:40 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:15:11 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 16, 2014, 12:13:40 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 16, 2014, 12:11:54 PM

What is a 'weak hand'? Why is this type of penny stock terminology used in bitcoin? Does this imply that bitcoin is some type of investment scheme to hold rather than a currency to use?

It's a poker term long before "penny stocks." It means you lack confidence in you ability to play.

So it's a profit making game and not the future of money?

Is money not about profit?

Bitcoin is supposed to be about creating a decentralized network to change the way the world does finance and payments - not about getting all the bitcoin participants to be rich off of the successive waves of bitcoin participants because the unit value rose and having a contest about who made the most profits.

I invested to make money and to be able to reach some goals ( the volatility makes it easier than working hard to earn that money Wink

)... I literally don't give a fuck about the technology behind it, it is a cool innovation and all but I don't think it is a reason for to risk my life savings and be a "strong hand" when I could collect profits and not be a greedy bastard.... most of the time people here will attack you when you tell them that you are trading to make a profit or when you tell them you cashed out some of your holdings....

That is NOT why you were attacked. You were attacked b/c you failed to articulate any plan that made sense to anyone beyond yourself.. and even then, NOT clear if it made sense.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=656657.0

I've attempted to make a quick response within that thread, and to also respond to the poll to the extent any of the answers come close to what is really happening here.

In essence, the mere fact that you spending a lot of time publicly discussing this matter in various threads seems to demonstrate that you do NOT really know the fuck what you are talking about or even that you have adequately analyzed or understood your own position nor your plan.

I am NOT sure whether you have bad intents, so in that regard, I feel sorry for some of your ignorance... and lack of recognition of your own inabilities to know when to stop and when you likely need to spend some private time figuring out what you are doing and why you are doing it in order that you can explain.. to the extent that you end up continuing to post these kinds of matters in public threads....

Otherwise, you decisions regarding your investments or lack thereof in BTC or in other crypto-currencies are your own private concerns, and probably it would be better for everyone, including yourself, for you to keep your seemingly stupid-ass ill conceived and inadequately contemplated ideas to yourself... until they are better formulated. That's just my sense of the situation, at the moment, so take it for what it is worth.. and if you are NOT ready, willing or able to understand or to accept my thoughts, then NO problem to just let my comments pass.

you didn't answer to a single argument... you just choose a personal attack path.. you are a joke.

To me, it seems somewhat ironic that i attempt to go through considerable lengths to explain the content of my posts and the various reasons for making negative comments regarding the contents of your various posts. Your common rebuttal is that I merely am personally attacking you, which I believe I am striving NOT to do. In any event, you seem to have some difficulties with engaging in logic and/or communications. Some of the contents of this debate between us is likely progressing beyond anyone's ability to follow it. I certainly am having my own troubles following it. ONE of my main points, that i recall, is that you chose to sell 1/2 of your bitcoin stash NOW and to brag about your decision to be able to live off of your sale proceeds for two years, but through a multitude of postings, you have failed to explain your decision to be applicable to anyone beyond yourself, and why such a decision is NOT merely ludicrous. And, instead, you suggest that I am NOT responding to some of your nonsense stream of consciousness content.

Quote from: Room101 on June 19, 2014, 01:14:29 PM

Don't post very often guys, but been around for a while, got most of my coins in the 80 -120 bracket. Because of that i have pretty much just hodl through a few of the ups and downs and never had to worry about losing money cause it has rarely dropped below that whilst i have owned. Knew it was a bubble late last year but just didnt want to sell at gox where i had an account, and was just too lazy to set up stamp, so i have just kept hodling though the up and down.

Just wanted to say it feels a lot like it did when it was in the 120 -150 range for a while, before exploding to 1000. Occasionally i have doubts cause my coins are worth a reasonable chunk of change and it would suck to lose my bitcoin nest egg, but i have to say, from a rational perspective, bitcoin has lot more going for it now than it did 12 months ago.

Trade if you think you are smart AND lucky. Otherwise buy, hold, and look forward to the future!!

When did you realize that you needed to remove your BTC from GOX, and when did you finally act upon that realization and remove your BTC from GOX? LOTS of NON-Traders and HODLRs got stuck with their coins on GOX b/c they waited to long to move them.

Quote from: Richy_T on June 19, 2014, 01:51:16 PM

Quote from: BRADLEYPLOOF on June 19, 2014, 12:09:51 PM

So, when is someone going to buy an island, start a farm, power plant, ISP, and waste water treatment facility that does everything in bitcoin? Then, we can say F*** fiat, lets price everything in BTC. I'd rather pay a set BTC price every freakin' time then buy a couple pizzas worth a few million dollars a couple years later.

Any takers? That'd be the easiest way to start a TRUE BTC economy that's not dependent on the Fiat->BTC relationship. Granted, it would probably take a little while to get going, but it would be awesome...

I understand Risto's Bitcoin Supernode Hideaway is intended to be all Bitcoin. I'm not sure what his timeline on getting that up and operational is.

2021, I think.

Quote from: StoraGottes on June 19, 2014, 05:46:25 PM

Hi, greetings from the vast newbie/lurker community.

Would anyone care to speculate or provide a link as to the ramifications of $1 billion being dropped on the market as a long-term buy/hold. I suppose this probably won't happen until Wall Street or some other regulated exchange is able to be used. Just a random, large number I picked, but I'm new to all this and am curious as to how people will react the when/if the next round of big money shows up.

Thanks for your thoughts, ideas, and pictures.

Personally, I doubt that big money, such as $1 billion will be dropped all at once, until maybe the market cap is around $100 billion..

Accordingly, investment chunks will be smaller... and yes, if they prices is going up, then it becomes more easy to drop larger chunks, yet large chunks cause the price to go up too much, so investors with large chunks want to attempt to control the price rises (while they are buying), to the extent that they can.... and maybe once they are mostly in, then they do NOT mind manipulating the prices upwards with smaller amounts...

Quote from: Gingermod on June 19, 2014, 05:47:50 PM

We rally now?

NOT yet!!!! However, the week is coming near closing, and it will be very interesting if that weekly MACD candle closes green (at this point, barely green - yellow as an earlier poster mentioned).

Quote from: BRADLEYPLOOF on June 19, 2014, 07:25:38 PM

Quote from: JayJuenGee on June 19, 2014, 07:03:48 AM

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. Aenean commodo ligula eget dolor. Aenean massa. Cum sociis natoque penatibus et magnis dis parturient montes, nascetur ridiculus mus. Donec quam felis, ultricies nec, pellentesque eu, pretium quis, sem. Nulla consequat massa quis enim. Donec pede justo, fringilla vel, aliquet nec, vulputate eget, arcu. In enim justo, rhoncus ut, imperdiet a, venenatis vitae, justo. Nullam dictum felis eu pede mollis pretium. Integer tincidunt. Cras dapibus. Vivamus elementum semper nisi. Aenean vulputate eleifend tellus. Aenean leo ligula, porttitor eu, consequat vitae, eleifend ac, enim. Aliquam lorem ante, dapibus in, viverra quis, feugiat a, tellus. Phasellus viverra nulla ut metus varius laoreet.

Per translate.google.com:
Lorem itself pain he is amet consectetuer to post a comment. I really need to focus on consumer impact. I really miss. It's easy, you will feel to the home and the great gods into labor over the mountains, instantly. Until than the cats, it's just nothing, technology that your kids the value of what, prefix meaning half. No problem for the mass. Unfortunately, the foot of the just, even customers, nor economic, beef production, layout. In fact, the just, a wide range of to, financing a, the magazines and newspapers of life, the just. Here's the price of a soft foot football it was said to the cat. A whole week. Tomorrow protein. Morbi always like this. Blackjack team in the region. Aeneas as a lion around the world, of loans, living environment, Japan and the, for example. It's the Internet before, in the protein, bio-, from the newspaper, relax. Welcome to Indian as illegal trade bills.

Thanks... Even the translation does NOT make any sense to me... In other words, those are NOT my words. Sad

Quote from: Richy_T on June 19, 2014, 08:01:09 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 19, 2014, 07:47:01 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on June 19, 2014, 01:51:16 PM

Quote from: BRADLEYPLOOF on June 19, 2014, 12:09:51 PM

So, when is someone going to buy an island, start a farm, power plant, ISP, and waste water treatment facility that does everything in bitcoin? Then, we can say F*** fiat, lets price everything in BTC. I'd rather pay a set BTC price every freakin' time then buy a couple pizzas worth a few million dollars a couple years later.

Any takers? That'd be the easiest way to start a TRUE BTC economy that's not dependent on the Fiat->BTC relationship. Granted, it would probably take a little while to get going, but it would be awesome...

I understand Risto's Bitcoin Supernode Hideaway is intended to be all Bitcoin. I'm not sure what his timeline on getting that up and operational is.

2021, I think.

That's quite a ways away. If Bitcoin hasn't caught fire by then, it may never. If it does before, someone is likely to eat his lunch. Then again, if his holdings increase in value, he can probably bring the schedule forward significantly and still have first-mover advantage. Though his choice of location may prove to be an issue.

I was trying to be funny, so I should have put a smiley face next to my response... or maybe if I said 2139, then that would have been more funny.... I'll feel lucky to still be around in 2039, and there may be some grandchildren of currently living people around in 2139, if they are lucky.

Quote from: Oddball1221 on June 19, 2014, 08:58:50 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 19, 2014, 08:25:00 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on June 19, 2014, 05:47:50 PM

We rally now?

NOT yet!!!! However, the week is coming near closing, and it will be very interesting if that weekly MACD candle closes green (at this point, barely green - yellow as an earlier poster mentioned).

Why look at the weekly MACD specifically? If you look at other time periods, it seems to be at varying points of the sine curve, (3d).

I don't really know anything much about TAs. It just seems to be a delayed indicator of a longer term upward trend in BTC prices and b/c one week macd is the longest period that bitcoinwisdom allows to chose as a setting.

Quote from: CoinHamster on June 19, 2014, 09:00:14 PM

Quote from: AceWallen on June 19, 2014, 07:46:39 PM

we're still in a bullish consolidation, flag formation from the last leg up. if BFX breaks 600 to the downside, i will reconsider, but i think we should head up to 630-650 in the next couple days.

1h, 2h, 4h, 6h and 3d are going down Sad

i hope it will not break $600
it has to stay and rise!
let's pray and see...

Well, if nothing else works, then praying should NOT hurt..... Cheesy

Quote from: ihaveaquestion on June 19, 2014, 11:23:54 PM

Quote from: tarmi on June 19, 2014, 11:14:24 PM

I read the auction's terms: you cant place multiple bids (!) and the bids are sealed.

So nobody can place ten bids hoping to get all the lots?

Multiple bids on one lot is different from one bit on each lot. In other words, I believe that one person could bid 10 times and win all ten lots, so long as his/her bid is the highest one on each lot. And, if that bidder only bid on one lot, then the most that bidder could win would be one lot.

Quote from: Bitcopia on June 19, 2014, 11:25:36 PM

Quote from: maok on June 19, 2014, 11:18:36 PM

Quote from: abercrombie on June 19, 2014, 11:07:35 PM

i'm thinking FBI coins about 10% above market value.

whales can't accumulate bitcoins on the exchanges without a substantial price movement. 10% above market could be a bargain.

most bidders will put at 110%, but those who will win the auction will bid at 120% or more if they really want to win

I don't think anybody is going to pay a 20% premium on those coins. Even if you were so simple as to move that money into Bitstamp to buy your coins, you could buy 3,000 coins with slippage only going to less than $645. That's about a 7% premium IF you assumed all of the coins were bought at $645, but realistically, it would probably average out to about a 3.5% premium. You then have the added benefit of contributing to a bull market. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go for 100%, but much more than that is probably unrealistic.

You do NOT seem to be thinking this through sufficiently. As others have posted, here, there is likely an incentive to manipulate the price of BTCs down over the next couple of weeks, yet if you already hold 10k or more BTC, then you may be more than willing to bid and/pay a premium on the BTC in order to contribute to the creation of a post auction BTC buzz. Who knows the exact strategy(ies) of the various bidders, and possibly they are trying to figure out various strategies as well... and monitoring BTC prices leading up to the event (b/c they may adjust their strategy based on the market behavior immediately preceding the bid placements). In this regard, there may be some questions among the bidders whether they should low ball or high ball or stagger their bids. Yes, it seems quite conceivable that some of the bidders are going to employ a bid strategy that includes bidding on each of the ten lots, and they may be fairly neutral about whether they win the bid or NOT while resting assured that anyone who bids on such BTC and wins such BTC are going to have to bid more than they do on each of the lots.. in this regard, the BTC are easily going to go above 100% of the then market price (and likely the price will fluctuate during that day based on various bid rumors, so sophisticated bidders will likely wait until near the last hour to place their bids).

Quote from: maok on June 19, 2014, 11:29:46 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 19, 2014, 11:27:45 PM

you don't get to see other peoples bids.

exactly why they'll offer 110%, but the winner will be the one that offers 120%

(I can't believe that I am adding to this numerology crap..... )

or 111.111%

Quote from: bitcoinsrus on June 19, 2014, 11:35:34 PM

okay, lets say one of you guys really wanted the coins. would you put a sealed bid at market price (hoping no one else wants to pay retail). or would you pay 10-20% more or less?

If I had a sufficient quantity of money available for BTC purchases, then I would bid on all ten lots and stagger my bids hoping to win some, if NOT all of the lots. Potentially, I would place bids as low as 80% and as high as 135%. I would expect that having some lots go for premium prices would cause BTC prices to rise, and even my investment at 135% would be profitable in the short run and in the long run.

This current calculation is assuming that 6/26 BTC prices are around $590. If BTC prices are lower than $590, then I may bid a higher percentages across the spread, and if BTC prices are higher, then I may bid lower percentages across the spread.

Quote from: MatTheCat on June 19, 2014, 11:40:18 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 19, 2014, 11:20:34 PM

Do please tell us Mat, what is the going market rate for bitcoins which are certified by the U.S. government to be free of legal encumbrances?

What, can't find any?

Hmm. Perhaps they are, should we say, rare?

Where do I start?

Erm.....I acknowledge that you are not alone in this belief, but do you realise the lunacy of what you are saying?

Only on this forum, would you find a consensus that thinks there is a difference between Bitcoins seized and sold by a Government and those bought and sold on an exchange or in OTC trades. Do you think that one day we will have YouTube auctions selling 'government sanctioned' BTC at a premium over spot? Will they come with little certificates of authenticity? Will they be sold in little virtual display cases?

I usually agree with nearly anything that Aminorex writes, and I thought that MatTheCat was a troll; however, here, MatTheCat communicates reason. Well done MTC!!! Wink

There seems to be little premium for legitimacy to the BTC themselves; however, there seems to be considerable legitimacy given to BTC as a whole by the mere fact that the government is going through this auction process (even though the government stole the coins from SR customers based on some bullshit assertions that SR was violating some kind of law that is probably ill conceived and ambiguous and overly broad).

Quote from: Erdogan on June 19, 2014, 11:48:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 19, 2014, 07:21:58 PM

Quote from: Erdogan on June 19, 2014, 07:58:51 AM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 19, 2014, 07:49:01 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on June 19, 2014, 07:47:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuenGee on June 19, 2014, 07:03:48 AM

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. Aenean commodo ligula eget dolor. Aenean massa. Cum sociis natoque penatibus et magnis dis parturient montes, nascetur ridiculus mus. Donec quam felis, ultricies nec, pellentesque eu, pretium quis, sem. Nulla consequat massa quis enim. Donec pede justo, fringilla vel, aliquet nec, vulputate eget, arcu. In enim justo, rhoncus ut, imperdiet a, venenatis vitae, justo. Nullam dictum felis eu pede mollis pretium. Integer tincidunt. Cras dapibus. Vivamus elementum semper nisi. Aenean vulputate eleifend tellus. Aenean leo ligula, porttitor eu, consequat vitae, eleifend ac, enim. Aliquam lorem ante, dapibus in, viverra quis, feugiat a, tellus. Phasellus viverra nulla ut metus varius laoreet.

I agree. Typical wall street slang. They will soon come. You will notice it also on the price.

You really think it'll be like that? Maybe later, but definitely not when they start. Expect surprises.

It can be argued all ways.

This is all Mumbo Jumbo to me, and I do NOT understand what I supposedly said. Huh

I thought so too, but some comments half way persuaded me it was legit. This is absurd!

Yes, and I am glad that you seem to be having some fun, Erdogan, since you seemed to have started this mumbo jumbo. I'm NOT really sure why, but what the heck.. adding a few posts to this thread will probably NOT hurt BTC prices. Wink

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 19, 2014, 11:58:58 PM

Quote from: Erdogan on June 19, 2014, 11:48:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuenGee on June 19, 2014, 07:03:48 AM

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet [... ]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorem_ipsum

OK.. that makes sense... Erdogan was attempting to send a message... and maybe have some fun... ... Thanks for shedding some light on this previously puzzling matter, Jorge...

Quote from: DieJohnny on June 20, 2014, 03:35:29 AM

Quote from: beetcoin on June 20, 2014, 02:11:21 AM

the last run-up was kinda unexpected and swift.. and the one before that too. this time, it seems like we're waiting around for the momentum to build up.. hopefully it'll unfold out differently this time.

there are simply too many average joe's that are 100% certain we are going way up in the next few months. Markets are not kind to good ol boy investors that have it all figured out.

We are going down until most average joe's have had enough, it is at that moment they will sell and bitcoin will sky rocket and burn them all.

But we aren't there yet, why? because i am an average joe and i have no intention of selling right now. If I ever get an inkling of losing patience and wanting to sell, then buy every bitcoin you can afford. But i am not there yet.

6 more months to a year of these $350 to $650 prices may weed out quite a few more average joes (in your parlance) or average Johnnys.

Quote from: BTCfan1 on June 20, 2014, 07:09:23 AM

so if the SR coins don't touch the exchanges, they won't affect the price?

Did anyone suggest this? Price is affected by the whole public aspect of an auction taking place and the news developments around that auction - even if the number of coins is NOT really that large in the whole scheme of things, there is a certain amount of public spectacle and waiting to see what everyone else does.... NO one wants to do anything until someone else does something.

Quote from: BTCfan1 on June 20, 2014, 07:09:23 AM

or if the selling price is made public in the news, will that become new selling price?

A momentum could be created, yet with market prices, NONE of this seems to be certain... There may be inclinations in one direction or another; however, manipulation and/or news could cause inclination and momentum in another direction which feeds upon itself.. up until a point.

I doubt that anyone could give you a very clear answer, even though manipulators have better ability to control price directions, they are also limited by the actions or inactions of other manipulators and the momentum also that may snowball amongst the masses.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 20, 2014, 09:52:11 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 06:50:51 AM

I believe that one person could bid 10 times and win all ten lots, so long as his/her bid is the highest one on each lot. And, if that bidder only bid on one lot, then the most that bidder could win would be one lot.

The auction mechanism is clearly described in the USMS note. Each bidder submits one "sealed" bid where he says "I will buy up to N blocks of 3000 BTC for X dollars each, and up to M blocks of 2,656.51306529 for Y dollars each", where N is between 0 and 9, and M is 0 or 1. When the bidding period is over, the USMS "opens" the bids, and awards the blocks of each type to the bidders, by decreasing bid price, until all blocks are awarded.

It appears that the USMS will not release any results to the public: http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/faqs.pdf It will only tell losing bidders that they lost. But perhaps the terminally curious will file a FOIA request.

And they felt it was necessary to write

Quote

The USMS does not make any representations or warranties regarding Bitcoin.

So you will not get a refund if you buy those bitcoins and they turn out to be counterfeited, or half of their bits fall off after the first transaction. Grin

The process seems a little illogical in certain respects, but it seems to clearly communicate what it will be. Additionally, the actual bidding seems to be a little less than transparent, yet I would imagine that they cannot give a lot to anyone who bid lower, b/c the higher bidder would truely complain if s/he did NOT receive a lot and a lower bidder did.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 20, 2014, 11:03:35 AM

Quote from: Tzupy on June 20, 2014, 10:53:54 AM

There is a timing problem with the 'buy to dump immediately on exchanges' scenario: [ ... ] The buyer has to be cautious with respect to market movement 27th June - 3rd July.

Yes, he must include that forced delay in his estimate of how much money he would get if he got those coins. It is irrelevant for the optimistic bidder, very important for the pessimistic bidder.

The delay is does NOT make any difference whether a person is optimistic or pessimistic... but it would likely weed out some short term manipulations. In that respect the delay affects long term versus short term calculations regarding those coins.

NONETHELESS, i believe one theory is that many of the bidders would likely already hold a large number of coins - and accordingly, their total investment in bitcoin could be enhanced by any kind of manipulative affect from the coin sales...

Quote from: blatchcorn on June 20, 2014, 11:57:26 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 20, 2014, 10:44:55 AM

I am currently pessimistic about the chances of the price ever getting much higher than now

I bet you 1 bitcoin that some time during the lifespan of bitcoin the price will rise above the $580 range. If this does not happen in the next 5 years, I give you a bitcoin. Sound fair?

Oh and a sell off before July? This consolidation has bear trap written all over it.

For a variety of reasons, including how you have structured this bet, NO ONE with any brain would take this bet... maybe if you changed the reward to dollars, then possibly, who would want a bitcoin that may have little value in 5 years.

Also, maybe change the amount to $700 or some other more reasonable and higher amount.. $580 is the current floating price, as you know.... within 5 years, many would even bet $1000 or more... as a sure thing in their thinking.

Quote from: oda.krell on June 20, 2014, 01:20:51 PM

Quote from: Dragonkiller on June 20, 2014, 01:05:26 PM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 20, 2014, 01:04:19 PM

Quote from: Dragonkiller on June 20, 2014, 01:03:05 PM

Jorge will go down in history as one of the most successful trolls to have ever lived. Intelligent people here still don't understand he's a troll.

Is there anyone who ever said Jorge is not a troll Huh

Oda for one.

Sure. And I stand by that. However, I also pointed out how stubborn (and biased) he can be. But if a majority of this community considers what Jorge does 'trolling' then I'd have to conclude they're thinner skinned than I imagined.

What igorr, mah87 or fonzie does can be justifiably called trolling. Jorge is just being obstinate.

I am o.k. with the fact that sometimes Jorge is being obstinate.... Really, I see nothing wrong with that, and being obstinate could be, in many circumstances a public service. However, it seems that you, Oda, are giving Jorge too much credit b/c sometimes, he is giving misinformation and seeming to do so on purpose. That is the part that bothers me, and maybe you are o.k. with that or possibly, you just have NOT seen any examples of such purposeful misinformation giving from Jorge.... or you could be blinded by your love for Jorge... Cheesy

Quote from: xyzzy099 on June 20, 2014, 01:28:02 PM

Quote from: Dragonkiller on June 20, 2014, 01:05:26 PM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 20, 2014, 01:04:19 PM

Quote from: Dragonkiller on June 20, 2014, 01:03:05 PM

Jorge will go down in history as one of the most successful trolls to have ever lived. Intelligent people here still don't understand he's a troll.

Is there anyone who ever said Jorge is not a troll Huh

Oda for one.

I don't think Jorge is a troll, per se -I think he just decided on the thesis for the book he plans to write about The Great Bitcoin Ponzi Scheme long before he showed up here to start doing research - so now he cannot allow himself to be swayed.

Sad because he would probably make more money investing in bitcoin than he is ever likely to make from any such book.

Frequently, people mistakenly believe that others should be motivated by money... which is too simplistic of a framing of motivation(s).

Quote from: nanobrain on June 20, 2014, 02:29:36 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 20, 2014, 02:08:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuenGee on June 20, 2014, 02:06:07 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on June 20, 2014, 01:34:21 PM

I'm a bear troll myself now, huh? Kind of used inflationary lately. Oh well, better start posting random downtrends while I'm still unignored by a few laggards.

Thanks for postin this, i don´t see us havin a bottom reached yet, and for the first time thinking about sellin my precious Bitcoins.
I couldn´t stand it seeing them going lower again. maybe it´s time to get out of the game! I possibly will buy in again @ around 100-300$
I will NOT enter above! From what i understand about TA and learned in the last weeks, this whole uptrend has been nothing else that another bulltrap on it´s way to the real bottom!
I made the mistake to listen to the false prophets in here.

JayJuenGee?!

Ohh "Brand new JayJuenGee"

I see whats happening here..

He seems far more economical and lucid than version JJG 1.0

Yeah, right..... Tongue

NOT

Quote from: dgarcia on June 20, 2014, 03:14:18 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 20, 2014, 02:50:44 PM

...and when I trashed Bears users seemed to agree, in fact, they even helped me, but when I started questioning the whole going up thing they turned against me and started trashing me...

Yes, i can remeber the time where you trashed bears, even reasonable, whispering bears and not only screaming perma-troll-bears. Now you wonder that the crowd turned against you (or more - you against the crowd)? Not, really, no? ;-)

It is not what they want to hear or think about. Rockets, trains and tits will make you popular, not pessimism.

Personally, I do NOT mind pessimism, if there is some logical or at least sensical explanation to the pessimism. Mmitech, on the other hand, seems to get easily distracted and explores irrelevant tangents.. and in the end fails to explain or back up what he was attempting to communicate. In this regard, instead of attempting to clarify his communication, he goes on the attack and fails/refuses to take responsibility for whatever miscommunication may have existed.

Quote from: Bios Optimus on June 20, 2014, 04:00:26 PM

Quote from: KFR on June 20, 2014, 03:57:01 PM

Just replace what you use. Cool

I know you are right but I just can't bring myself to spend any right now.

ONE of my obstacles in spending is the potential accounting problem to have to keep track... since it is supposed to be treated as property.

My solution is either to replace as I spend, and therefore say I did NOT claim it as profit b/c I replaced what I had spent... or I can spend it overseas (outside of the USA), which would cause me NOT to have to claim a profit.

Also, I am disinclined to sell now, anyway b/c at this point my portfolio remains in the red with a $613 average BTC price.

Quote from: Cassius on June 20, 2014, 05:11:59 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 04:55:02 PM

Quote from: blatchcorn on June 20, 2014, 11:57:26 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 20, 2014, 10:44:55 AM

I am currently pessimistic about the chances of the price ever getting much higher than now

I bet you 1 bitcoin that some time during the lifespan of bitcoin the price will rise above the $580 range. If this does not happen in the next 5 years, I give you a bitcoin. Sound fair?

Oh and a sell off before July? This consolidation has bear trap written all over it.

For a variety of reasons, including how you have structured this bet, NO ONE with any brain would take this bet... maybe if you changed the reward to dollars, then possibly, who would want a bitcoin that may have little value in 5 years.

Also, maybe change the amount to $700 or some other more reasonable and higher amount.. $580 is the current floating price, as you know.... within 5 years, many would even bet $1000 or more... as a sure thing in their thinking.

I CAN'T TAKE THIS ANY MORE!! BETWEEN THE LINES, MAN. READ BETWEEN THE LINES. IS IT SO HARD?

Something is apparently obvious, yet there is a need to read between the lines? Seems like you are having a meltdown, Cassius, about something trivial, no?

Quote from: Cassius on June 20, 2014, 05:57:03 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 05:51:19 PM

Quote from: Cassius on June 20, 2014, 05:11:59 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 04:55:02 PM

Quote from: blatchcorn on June 20, 2014, 11:57:26 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 20, 2014, 10:44:55 AM

I am currently pessimistic about the chances of the price ever getting much higher than now

I bet you 1 bitcoin that some time during the lifespan of bitcoin the price will rise above the $580 range. If this does not happen in the next 5 years, I give you a bitcoin. Sound fair?

Oh and a sell off before July? This consolidation has bear trap written all over it.

For a variety of reasons, including how you have structured this bet, NO ONE with any brain would take this bet... maybe if you changed the reward to dollars, then possibly, who would want a bitcoin that may have little value in 5 years.

Also, maybe change the amount to $700 or some other more reasonable and higher amount.. $580 is the current floating price, as you know.... within 5 years, many would even bet $1000 or more... as a sure thing in their thinking.

I CAN'T TAKE THIS ANY MORE!! BETWEEN THE LINES, MAN. READ BETWEEN THE LINES. IS IT SO HARD?

Something is apparently obvious, yet there is a need to read between the lines? Seems like you are having a meltdown, Cassius, about something trivial, no?

Blindingly, getting-smacked-about-the-face-with-a-halibut obvious.
Face, palm...

NOT so obvious to me, whatever it is to which you are referring.

Is there toilet paper stuck to my shoe? OMG... Why don't you just say it, rather than getting annoyed merely b/c you see something that someone else does NOT. Each of us have our differing perspectives and senses, but the mere fact that someone sees something different than someone else does NOT make one more or less intelligent than another.... well, you may consider the matter differently, at least it seems that you do. Roll Eyes

Quote from: BRADLEYPLOOF on June 20, 2014, 06:06:16 PM

Quote from: Cassius on June 20, 2014, 05:57:03 PM

/SNIP

Blindingly, getting-smacked-about-the-face-with-a-halibut obvious.
Face, palm...

YEAH.... a visual helps..... Cheesy

EDIT: And by the way, those look like rainbow trout to me, but what the fuck do I know about fish?

EDIT 2: Woops, and you got me with the clarification about the kind of fish in your below response.

Quote from: BRADLEYPLOOF on June 20, 2014, 06:27:50 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 06:25:50 PM

Quote from: BRADLEYPLOOF on June 20, 2014, 06:06:16 PM

Quote from: Cassius on June 20, 2014, 05:57:03 PM

/SNIP

Blindingly, getting-smacked-about-the-face-with-a-halibut obvious.
Face, palm...

YEAH.... a visual helps..... Cheesy

I know, I know...they're not halibut. They're trout. But close enough right?

Unless, you are going to go out there and stage the performance yourself or hire an actor, it may be best to find the most near approximation.

I like pictures anyhow... especially when they add to the message - even though I think that is supposed to represent me in the pic (by the way that is NOT me), getting my face smacked by a halibut that is NOT a halibut. Cheesy

Quote from: BRADLEYPLOOF on June 20, 2014, 06:30:21 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 20, 2014, 06:28:59 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 06:24:55 PM

Why don't you just say it, rather than getting annoyed merely b/c you see something that someone else does NOT.

The bandwidth of the subtext channel is variable, but can be several orders of magnitude larger than the text channel. You can't stuff 50 pounds of crap in a 10 pound sack.

I find it delightfully amusing when extremely literal people collide with extremely aromatic people.

Depends on their aroma I suppose... Wink

It seems much more healthy to be amused by internet posts rather than to get worked up about them.... but to each his/her/its own. I suppose a bot would NOT get upset, so getting upset is a sign that the poster may be human-like. Angry

Quote from: Cassius on June 20, 2014, 06:39:22 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 06:24:55 PM

Quote from: Cassius on June 20, 2014, 05:57:03 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 05:51:19 PM

Quote from: Cassius on June 20, 2014, 05:11:59 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 04:55:02 PM

Quote from: blatchcorn on June 20, 2014, 11:57:26 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 20, 2014, 10:44:55 AM

I am currently pessimistic about the chances of the price ever getting much higher than now

I bet you 1 bitcoin that some time during the lifespan of bitcoin the price will rise above the $580 range. If this does not happen in the next 5 years, I give you a bitcoin. Sound fair?

Oh and a sell off before July? This consolidation has bear trap written all over it.

For a variety of reasons, including how you have structured this bet, NO ONE with any brain would take this bet... maybe if you changed the reward to dollars, then possibly, who would want a bitcoin that may have little value in 5 years.

Also, maybe change the amount to $700 or some other more reasonable and higher amount.. $580 is the current floating price, as you know.... within 5 years, many would even bet $1000 or more... as a sure thing in their thinking.

I CAN'T TAKE THIS ANY MORE!! BETWEEN THE LINES, MAN. READ BETWEEN THE LINES. IS IT SO HARD?

Something is apparently obvious, yet there is a need to read between the lines? Seems like you are having a meltdown, Cassius, about something trivial, no?

Blindingly, getting-smacked-about-the-face-with-a-halibut obvious.
Face, palm...

NOT so obvious to me, whatever it is to which you are referring.

Is there toilet paper stuck to my shoe? OMG... Why don't you just say it, rather than getting annoyed merely b/c you see something that someone else does NOT. Each of us have our differing perspectives and senses, but the mere fact that someone sees something different than someone else does NOT make one more or less intelligent than another.... well, you may consider the matter differently, at least it seems that you do. Roll Eyes

Alright, but this is a one-time thing, ok? After this, no more.
Jorge has made a reputation by proudly not owning bitcoin. So let's say he ignores the maths and enters the bet, and wow, he wins! Clever Jorge. Except he's just sold his principles for < $580, because now he owns a bitcoin, and suddenly all those months of leaving posts full of selective evidence and ignoring good answers were for nothing.
It was never supposed to be a real bet. Obviously, getting-slapped-around-the-face-with-the-fish-of-your-choice obviously. It was just a joke in the form of Socratic irony because naturally Jorge is never going to take it for those reasons.
I'm not sure why you think I'm annoyed. I suppose it might be my unnecessary over-use of capital letters.
And yes, you do have toilet paper stuck to your shoe.

I proclaim WOWsa to this explanation!!!!!! Surely, I would have NEVER understood all of your above points to be OBVIOUS.

To me, Jorge seems to be a fairly complicated creature (or bot), even in his various annoying and largely predictable ways.

Nonetheless, I remain steadfast in my belief in free will and that even when we expect a certain conduct, people can actually exercise free will by taking some unpredictable path... and I believe that this free will also applies to Jorge or any number of us participating in this thread.

NOW< on the other hand, if Jorge happens to be a bot, then probably his free will, to the extent that it exists, would have been programmed as some kind of random outbursts of exuberance.

Quote from: Erdogan on June 20, 2014, 07:51:40 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 05:46:58 PM

Quote from: Bios Optimus on June 20, 2014, 04:00:26 PM

Quote from: KFR on June 20, 2014, 03:57:01 PM

Just replace what you use. Cool

I know you are right but I just can't bring myself to spend any right now.

ONE of my obstacles in spending is the potential accounting problem to have to keep track... since it is supposed to be treated as property.

My solution is either to replace as I spend, and therefore say I did NOT claim it as profit b/c I replaced what I had spent... or I can spend it overseas (outside of the USA), which would cause me NOT to have to claim a profit.

Also, I am disinclined to sell now, anyway b/c at this point my portfolio remains in the red with a $613 average BTC price.

The accounting...how can the dominators possibly expect people to do that? Do you see people at large keeping tabs on everything they spend and earn. Private double book-keeping? Assuming bitcoins further progress, not possible.

Just say no.

Who really knows? It seems to be a slippery slope, and to me it seems that legally, one is required to report every single sale of bitcion. And, there may be a difference if you do NOT have anything to lose; however, if you have a large number of assets, it could be fairly risky to fail to report - and all of the BTC that I have acquired through coinbase would be known or potentially knowable to the IRS>.... NOT like I can hide that. ... then the slippery slope would be when to report... a $10 transaction or $100 transaction or a $1000 or some other amount?

If you are potentially dealing with large amounts of profits being cashed out in bitcoin, then it could be a problem when you have a lot of bitcoin wealth to be potentially subject to prison for tax evasion... who wants that? NOT this cat.

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 20, 2014, 08:08:34 PM

Quote from: JorgeStoefli on June 20, 2014, 08:04:22 PM

Quote from: JayJuenGee on June 20, 2014, 07:55:00 PM

I´m more and more certain, that the so called "reversal" from 340$ was in fact NOT a real reversal. It looks more and more like a huge bulltrap, i wish i had cashed out and cut my losses when we have been @ 680$. However i think it is NOT too late to sell now. I should have listened to JorgeStolfi and mmitech instead of writing huge amounts of pointless nonsense in the last weeks. I do NOT recommend everybody that he should sell, but in the short and midterm it looks like 680$ or has been the peak for this year. I will sell half of my stuff now and the other 2 BTC when we eventually reach 600-610$ in the next small bulltrap.

...

would really appreciate it if you didn't pretend to be other members and quit trolling so hard.

I predict that Adam is going to convert from friendly smiling beer-distributing penquin to ruthless, ass-kicking penquin. To occur when many of us we were beginning to think that penquins were so nice, gentle and cuddly. Shocked

Quote from: Gingermod on June 20, 2014, 09:26:21 PM

1W MACD still green

Hehehehe....

I think that we have to wait until it closes, though...

I hate to quote any candle, before it closes (NOT that I am any kind candle whispering expert Undecided

)

Quote from: empowering on June 20, 2014, 09:36:33 PM

Quote from: Cassius on June 20, 2014, 06:49:54 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 20, 2014, 06:40:35 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 06:32:46 PM

I think that is supposed to represent me in the pic (by the way that is NOT me), getting my face smacked by a halibut that is NOT a halibut. Cheesy

Calling Dr. Cassius! Dr. Cassius, does the subjects cognitive apprehension of the concept of external representation of self constitute evidence of some vestigial functioning mirror neuron activity, or is this merely a Skinner-box effect?

Dr Aminorex. I stooped and my pregenual anterior cingulate cortex informs me that I should not have done. (It always was an overactive little illegitimate child.)
There is no need for you to do the same.

Cassius and Aminorex ...I really like you guys... when this all plays out... drinks are on me ...at a place where there are drinks and sunshine and bikinis : )

edit: fuck it JayJuanGee and Jorge you are invited too!

You will definitely need to include some toys (such as bikinis) in order to keep some of us sufficiently distracted and less inclined to either kill one another or for us (on our own) to make a boring party by our employing some kind of passive aggressive, "silent treatment."

Yet, I would imagine that with the passage of time, and by the time any such gathering were to materialize, the guestlist would inevitably have to expand more than the exponential growth of bitcoin prices since 2009.

Quote from: empowering on June 20, 2014, 10:11:36 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 10:06:41 PM

Quote from: empowering on June 20, 2014, 09:36:33 PM

Quote from: Cassius on June 20, 2014, 06:49:54 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 20, 2014, 06:40:35 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 06:32:46 PM

I think that is supposed to represent me in the pic (by the way that is NOT me), getting my face smacked by a halibut that is NOT a halibut. Cheesy

Calling Dr. Cassius! Dr. Cassius, does the subjects cognitive apprehension of the concept of external representation of self constitute evidence of some vestigial functioning mirror neuron activity, or is this merely a Skinner-box effect?

Dr Aminorex. I stooped and my pregenual anterior cingulate cortex informs me that I should not have done. (It always was an overactive little illegitimate child.)
There is no need for you to do the same.

Cassius and Aminorex ...I really like you guys... when this all plays out... drinks are on me ...at a place where there are drinks and sunshine and bikinis : )

edit: fuck it JayJuanGee and Jorge you are invited too!

You will definitely need to include some toys (such as bikinis) in order to keep some of us sufficiently distracted and less inclined to either kill one another or for us (on our own) to make a boring party by our employing some kind of passive aggressive, "silent treatment."

Yet, I would imagine that with the passage of time, and by the time any such gathering were to materialize, the guestlist would inevitably have to expand more than the exponential growth of bitcoin prices since 2009.

Bro... when we get there... and we are partying.. you are gonna have to chill out !! ; ) party is a party : )

hehehe... let me practice... by putting on some shades.... Cool

Quote from: aminorex on June 20, 2014, 10:12:00 PM

Quote from: empowering on June 20, 2014, 09:40:13 PM

It is amazing what technology can do... think about it....

In the long run yes, it is a great opportunity for someone to make an app for that.

Meanwhile, in the real world, everyone will ignore the IRS. This is bad, because it is part of a pervasive and creeping contempt for rule of law. In the end we all suffer for that. The fix is to void all the ludicrous, often criminal in themselves, laws. That would be roughly, let's see, one two three... all of them.

What seems to happen though, is if everyone ignores the law, then there is selective enforcement.. and surely those who are less able to defend themselves (or who are caught off guard) are manipulated by such overly broad and unfair rules.

Quote from: Blue on June 21, 2014, 04:50:58 AM

Quote from: fonzie on June 21, 2014, 04:40:37 AM

they should move the police car - it´s on the landing spot !

That's Fonzie's landing spot - either way, he (Fonzie) is gonna go SPLAT.

Quote from: nioc on June 21, 2014, 07:01:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 10:13:30 PM

words

Where did your other 1700 posts go and why?

I'm NOT sure what you mean... Huh

?

For one thing, I have an imitator, poster, which could also be someone in the thread.. I suppose.. and additionally, you snipped the content of the referenced post, which was from me... and that referenced post shows my current post count as in the 1800s... which seems accurate...

Quote from: fonzie on June 21, 2014, 10:00:54 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 21, 2014, 09:29:58 AM

Quote from: Blue on June 21, 2014, 04:50:58 AM

Quote from: fonzie on June 21, 2014, 04:40:37 AM

they should move the police car - it´s on the landing spot !

That's Fonzie's landing spot - either way, he (Fonzie) is gonna go SPLAT.

JayJuanGee that is not very nice of you, your bitterness makes me sad.

Maybe I misunderstood? I thought that you were doing a self-portrait action shot? and you wanted our opinions?

Quote from: fonzie on June 21, 2014, 11:00:54 AM

"The Inner Visions grow kit produces multiple harvests and only needs to be watered once every grow cycle. The kit contains a 1200 ml cultivation box filled with spore-inoculated substrate, grow bag with air filter, two paper clips and a user manual. "

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6vrITcf9OY

I´m looking forward to hear your first market analysis after your trip.
Maybe you´ll be able to see the manipulators clearly actin in the orderbook(holdin the price down, as always), once your doors of perception have been opened!

My bold above. She may cheer up, too? And become more optimistic.. This will be great for Tera, this thread and possibly better for bitcoin.

Quote from: wachtwoord on June 21, 2014, 12:16:10 PM

Quote from: Blitz on June 21, 2014, 11:59:53 AM

The real weak hands are those who fantasize about some imminent 10k bubble looking at retarded exp log chart trendlines and then dump when inevitably it becomes blatantly obvious that their inflated expectations were wrong.

Bitcoin will prove to be the best investment around, even today, with far far far lower growth rates than what people are expecting. It's fine to fantasize about these things, just don't dump if perfection doesn't occur. Oh, and these fantasies are not impossible. They're not certainties either of course.

I think that there are several in bitcoin who have similar situations to mine, in that they are playing long-term. They are betting on some kind of meaningful increase in BTC value in the coming years (possibly 10 to 50% per year), and they are hoping for the possibility of real great increases in value (possibly 100% to 1,000% per year), also they are prepared that BTC may decrease in value or remain flat, but consider that decrease in value scenario to be the least likely. So they are weighing the various possibilities.

Surely, NO ONE exactly fits the calculation model that I outlined above, and each of us likely place slightly differing probabilities on different outcomes, but I believe a large majority of long term bullish bitcoiners have some kind of calculation resembling what I outline above.

Quote from: Miz4r on June 21, 2014, 12:41:37 PM

Quote from: Bios Optimus on June 21, 2014, 12:09:23 PM

Quote from: Blitz on June 21, 2014, 11:59:53 AM

The real weak hands are those who fantasize about some imminent 10k bubble looking at retarded exp log chart trendlines and then dump when inevitably it becomes blatantly obvious that their inflated expectations were wrong.

So are traders who try to time bubbles to sell top and buy back lower considered average strength hands? And holders strong? Trying to figure out where I fit. Wink

Weak hands are people like MatTheCat, fonzie, and some others who are scared to hold coins for long and when the tree starts shakin' they don't know how fast to dump their coins again. Also people like the ones Blitz referred to who buy some coins to ride the imminent bubble and when they don't see a bubble within 2 weeks they will sell their coins again disappointed. Faalhaas is a perfect example of this.

Then we get to the Veronicas who think they are a strong hand at first, but then get really scared when they see the price drop hard and eventually give in and dump their coins at the bottom or close to it. This is also a weak hand, but one pretending to be strong until tested and these people will naturally suffer the most.

Then we have the day traders who use TA and stuff to try and buy low sell high. They are also weak hands but a small percentage of them are actually good enough to make money from the market. Most of them will miss the biggest profits during the big Bitcoin bull rides though, but they're at least trying to manage their risks.

Then we get to the long term investors who are generally long on Bitcoin, but take profits out during big rallies and they also may buy more when they see dips. These I regard as strong hands with a decent sense of risk management. In terms of time investment and profitability I think this is the most efficient form of trading/investing in Bitcoin and I personally try to stick mostly to this strategy. I admit I do tend to also be a part of the last group, the true superstrong hands who are called the HODLERS of course. Being a HODLER has many advantages like no need to submit yourself to exchange risks and no need to wreck your brain and invest time into deciding when to sell and when to buy back. The disadvantage however is that you may spend a lot of time underwater or lose your entire investment one day if Bitcoin fails. But these people don't care as it's either all or nothing for them, and that's also a perfectly valid strategy if you ask me.

Gr8 summary..... +1

Quote from: shmadz on June 21, 2014, 03:13:48 PM

Quote from: BuildTheFuture on June 21, 2014, 03:02:04 PM

I think the blockchain.info bitcoin days destroyed chart is looking interesting. There was a spike up when the SR coin auction was announced, plenty of old coins got cashed out to raise money for bidding in the auction I guess. But as of yesterday the 7 day average has moved all the way down to a low point where it was in mid-May prior to that big rally move starting.

Of course I can't give any advice, I can only say what I think, and I have a large probability of being wrong, but I'll take this opportunity to spew out some nonsense anyways Grin

I think this window might be the last chance at cheap coins.

once the auction is over, I suspect that those auctioned coins are not going to be re-sold any time soon.

I also get the feeling that any entity that is participating in the auction and does not win their desired amount of coins, will add to the buying pressure (I'm sure they won't immediately buy and spike the price, but I think they should be buying dips at the very least...)

I think that many coins might have been sold in the previous and coming weeks in the interest of both keeping the price low, and also securing enough USD to place a bid.

it's a risky situation, but that's what these people (the kind of entities that would be bidding for blocks of 3K coins) do for a living.

always remember to actively monitor and consider your risk exposure.

I agree with you; however, we could get another chance at cheap coins if the US Govt were to announce another auction.. such as the 144K coins before the next bubble... though that possibility seems less likely..though NOT impossible.

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on June 21, 2014, 05:44:28 PM

i think it could be quite some time before that case is dealt with, and before those coins could be auctioned. surely, the 144K will appear quite large, but hopefully by then, there will be lots of players waiting to get in off-exchange, slippage-free.

You seem to be assuming that the 144k auction is going to take place after the next bubble. Generally, I agree with the probability of that assumption being quite high, but in either case, the auctioning of the 144k btc will likely have a considerable affect on the price of bitcoin... and likely cause the availability of cheap coins. On the other hand, going through this auction of 30K BTC once, is likely going to make less uncertainty when the 144K auction comes.

Quote from: wobber on June 22, 2014, 06:23:54 PM

If I were to buy 25,000 coins in one day, like today, on a single exchange (Bitstamp) I'd push the price too high. Bitstamp has sell orders of about 15k BTC up to $1250, for example.

I presume someone could buy 25k if one uses at least 3 exchanges (Bitstamp, daily volume 4000 BTC; Bitfinex, daily volume 4800 BTC; btc-e, daily volume 3000 BTC souirce: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/). If you were to use just 10% of total volume daily (12800 BTC), which means 1280 BTC bought per day, would mean that you need 20 days to accomplish your goal without moving the market that much. And during that time the price could go up up up.

So, I'm asking myself: would the bidders offer $650 per coin? That would be a nice dollar cost average, since you cannot really buy 29k in a batch.

Anyhow, 2 questions:

1. can anyone confirm that the US Marshalls won't sell a batch of 29k BTC to a single bidder, but smaller batches to multiple bidders? I can't really tell from the auction listing.

2. would the auction act like a primer of a panic rally?

Regarding number 1 above:

I believe that for any single bidder to win all of the 29k+ US Marshalls' coins, then that bidder would have to have 10 bids that are the highest. I doubt that any single bidder wants all of the coins b/c if any single bidder were that determined to win all the bids s/he would likely have to bid at least 30% above market rate to assure such and even that premium bidding of 30% above market would NOT be assured to receive all of the coins, but s/he would know that anyone winning coins would have to bid higher than him/her.

Quote from: MoreFun on June 22, 2014, 07:01:33 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on June 22, 2014, 06:42:56 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on June 22, 2014, 06:37:54 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on June 22, 2014, 06:24:56 PM

So you traded 150 BTC and you don't own any. You're doing something really really wrong.

I could own 15 BTC right now. That is all I could have ever owned since weeks and actually less than that had I chose to hold in the upper $600s. That is the extent of the fiat whcih I am holding on the exchanges for now. But guess what? I don't want to own any Bitcoins right now. Bitcoins for me is zero sum game much like poker. I jumped onboard just in time to catch the last 40% of the bull-run, made a pile of money, and have since found that trading a corrective bear market is a whole lot trickier than an impulsive bull market. You are talking about the next bubble like it's a foregone conclusion whereas I am looking at a long term support that has been tested far too frequently of late that is currently hovering just $40 below spot.

Yes, like I said, you're doing something very very wrong.

I'll say this only once: Buy the 15 BTC, withdraw them from the exchange, put them in a cold wallet and go do something else for a few years.

Don't bother, we will listen to his ranting in a year or two when he could own 2 .5 BTC with the same money.

MoreFun: I fixed your above miscalculation.

Quote from: nioc on June 22, 2014, 09:37:43 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 21, 2014, 09:39:34 AM

Quote from: nioc on June 21, 2014, 07:01:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 20, 2014, 10:13:30 PM

words

Where did your other 1700 posts go and why?

I'm NOT sure what you mean... Huh

?

For one thing, I have an imitator, poster, which could also be someone in the thread.. I suppose.. and additionally, you snipped the content of the referenced post, which was from me... and that referenced post shows my current post count as in the 1800s... which seems accurate...

At first I thought you deleted posts because your post count was low. What I see is that your post count is 140 and never changes.

Unless you have some kind of glitch on your end, my activity level is currently 140 and my current post count is 1851. Maybe restart you browser... ? hehehe... Undecided

or change the battery on your mouse.. Cheesy

Quote from: MatTheCat on June 23, 2014, 12:53:07 AM

At this point in time, I really don't know what way the wind is going to blow, but as always with these grinding consolidation periods, the break out when it comes should be huge in whichever direction, complete with the Bitcoin 'fake out' that has become so customary, that is almost predictable.

At this point in time, seems that the market is 85% bull and 15% bear; however, your statement seems to imply that it is a 50/50 flip of the coin. Accordingly, you better get some of you 15BTC worth of fiat into BTC... maybe at least 10BTC worth. Otherwise you may be left at the train station with your suitcase.

Quote from: MoreFun on June 23, 2014, 12:09:12 AM

Quote from: Walsoraj on June 23, 2014, 12:01:19 AM

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-22/chinese-speculators-burned-by-bitcoin-turn-to-ipo-market.html

lol.

When they all will sell the new bubble can start... then all these sellers will come back paying double or triple price.

If this is true, then they will be burned again when BTC leaves the train station, and they are invested in some Chinese IPO(s) rather than BTC.

Quote from: Torque on June 23, 2014, 04:40:13 AM

Like I said, Stamp refuses to follow Huobi in the up direction, but seems to have no problem following them down.

Fkn bullshit market. I'm sure Stamp will be right back to $599.999999 soon.

I don't mean to be a fud-dud, but this numerology is bullshit too... or maybe I am just too sensitive?

Quote from: windjc on June 23, 2014, 05:19:57 AM

Quote from: Nicholas-Carraway on June 23, 2014, 05:05:10 AM

Quote from: Torque on June 23, 2014, 04:40:13 AM

Like I said, Stamp refuses to follow Huobi in the up direction, but seems to have no problem following them down.

Fkn bullshit market. I'm sure Stamp will be right back to $599.999999 soon.

In the wider view (since 6/16) we are just in a consolidation pattern with smaller and smaller price swings, and declining volume, even with tonight's sell off. FWIW, I put a bet in that the bias is up.

Well Torque,

With the pending bitcoin sale by the government there is a lot of uncertainty in the market place right now. By all intents and purposes we "should" be going down on uncertainty, but instead it looks like we are consolidating right into the pending sale. That is bullish in my opinion.

I hope we go a little lower - $550 anyone?? - before Friday, so I can pick some more before we test recent highs.

We will see.

In the last couple of days, I have been thinking that there is an attempt to keep pushing downward on the price to keep the price in the low $580 or possibly slightly lower area, until Wednesday when the MACD weekly candle closes, in order that it will close red, rather than green. Who knows, but there seems to be considerable difficulty getting the price to drop, which seems to be bullish, as you say.

Quote from: fonzie on June 23, 2014, 07:44:23 AM

Quote from: windjc on June 23, 2014, 07:42:12 AM

Quote from: fonzie on June 23, 2014, 07:41:36 AM

Quote from: windjc on June 23, 2014, 07:39:27 AM

Quote from: fonzie on June 23, 2014, 07:33:51 AM

BREAKING NEWS: USD SWAPS DEMAND IS NOT REAL! NOBODY WANTS TO BUY ALL THE BITCOINS! Cheesy

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/28twpj/manipulating_bfx_swaps_for_fun_and_profit_a_howto/

Btw The BitFinex source code is based on the Bitcoinica source code. Wink

Thanks for the 6 and 18 month old information. Cheesy

Perhaps you can find us a movie trailer for White House Down and 21 Jump Street while you're at it. Grin

First link is brand new you idiot!

News is 6 months old you imbecile! Cheesy

Update your system clock, post on reddit was made 7 hours ago you lobotomized monkey.

STOP insulting monkeys!!!!! Don't you know that this thread has a lot of sympathy towards monkeys, and also Monkeys are sources of wisdom, at least in this thread.

Quote from: windjc on June 23, 2014, 08:37:34 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on June 23, 2014, 08:23:43 AM

I know nobody likes to hear this, but looking at the daily and 3 day MACDs slowly moving into a position that counters each other, I can see us in an uneasy balance between 500 and 700 for another month, maybe two :/

I think this is a real possibility. We aren't likely going below $500 for more than a day (couple of hours) worst case scenario and we may not go above 700 until we get guidance from NY. Thats suppose to come this week, but could be longer as most legal matters and rulings don't happen on schedule.

Maybe flat long enough for me to get my tax return money to pump into BTC? hehehehe... I'm still working on my 2013 taxes... so I have NOT even filed yet.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 23, 2014, 09:42:26 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 23, 2014, 07:28:04 AM

And more dumping. What the hell! Still no idea why.

Dear @walsoraj, could you please tell @ShroomsKit to un-ignore me so that I can tell him to un-ignore you so that he can see your link to that article about Chinese IPOs? Skanth...

NOT that I want to help out any trolls; yet I would tell the bird dog, but he is ignoring me, too... At least he announced that he was ignoring me, about 3 months ago. hehehe... and I have been saddened, ever since. Tongue

Quote from: Davyd05 on June 23, 2014, 11:06:44 AM

All I know is buying more back in the 330's looks so good right now Cheesy

I think that it would look good only if you were just beginning to invest in BTC or that you had recently sold your BTC investment to buy in at a lower price. Otherwise $330s would be seriously problematic for BTC and would delay what seems to be our upcoming, pending and seemingly imminent choo choo.

Quote from: MatTheCat on June 23, 2014, 04:57:44 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 23, 2014, 04:55:23 PM

no i'm buying now.

Why buy now?

What happens if Bitcoin breaks below the longterm Jan 2013 support trendline on strong volume?

Also, you always seem to be buying. Never selling. Where do you get the fiat from?

MatTheCat: The bolded part of your above statement is somewhat funny.. I was beginning to think the same about ADam.. that with him it is just buy, buy, buy and HODL, HODL, HODL... but he has made some sell, sell, sell statements, from time to time - though you never know for sure whether he is joking.

Your statement about Getting fiat is interesting too. Unless, you are very young, the longer you have been around the block, the more likely it is that you have more and more items that are invested in fiat and income streams around such fiat systems. I have always had a considerable portion of my income dedicated to reinvesting with hopes that the reinvested money is earning interest and compounding over the years.

Certainly, I could have been better about my various investments and even if I had found out about bitcoin earlier, that would have been better, but I tend to live well within my means and to invest in "safe" things, such as index funds. With that I have built up a pretty decent cushion of fiat centric investments over the years.

Ever since I learned about the intricacies of BTC (only since November), I have been reconsidering my overall investment distributions.

In recent times, also, I have been considering whether it would be feasible and/or reasonable to remove some of my fiat from my various more liquid investments, such as stock investments and to put that money into BTC. Other investments that I have are NOT very liquid. However, if I took some of my liquid investments, that would definitely multiply my BTC holdings - however, then the proportion of my investment into BTC would be really skewed towards BTC - and probably a lot more volatile and risky.

I tend to believe that when the BTC prices go skyrocketing upward, I will likely be saying to myself, "I should have.... ", yet one of the downsides of diversified and safer investing strategies is to NOT have all of one's eggs in one kind of basket... even though, frequently, there will be second and third thoughts about such strategies after the fact (Monday morning quarterbacking).

Quote from: dgarcia on June 23, 2014, 05:22:50 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 23, 2014, 05:04:46 PM

Yes. Because the sheep need something to panic about. If it wasn't this auction they'd find something else.
It's a minor event but it completely controls the price at the
Moment. Traders are idiots.
Probably on the day of the auction the idiots will start selling because people might start selling. The news has to be really damn good for the price to go up.
Anything not extremely bullish and the traders will totally completely fucking panic and sell.
When we recover a week later they'll find the next event to panic about.

More and more I get the impression, that you are a bot. A posting-bot! An algorithm loaded with a few constants like sheep, panic, ignore, traders, idiots...

...fullfilling these constants with random words to sentences.

Maybe someone could find a shutdown sequence for this amok running algorithm?

That is so funny!! He does kind of interact as if he were a bird-dog bot... And he sticks to these various themes as you indicated... Yet, I personally DONT think shroomy is a bot... Nonetheless, I'm sure that bots have gotten more and more sophisticated over the years.

Quote from: edwardspitz on June 23, 2014, 08:47:09 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on June 23, 2014, 06:59:13 PM

Quote from: edwardspitz on June 23, 2014, 03:41:11 PM

Quote from: Torque on June 23, 2014, 03:09:59 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on June 23, 2014, 03:05:18 PM

Quote from: podyx on June 23, 2014, 01:57:09 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 23, 2014, 01:52:25 PM

The candle has been lit.

What candle?

Yeah, what do you mean, Tera?

Lol

Possibly Tera means that there is finally a green 1wk macd candle on Bitstamp. It was sort of confirmed with high volume. It is barely lit

It could be positive if we are dealing with macd obsessed whale

Long time ago I remember Tera said that a green 1 wk macd could indicate that it is a good time to buy (or maybe build on a position?). I can't tell if that was a joke or not. Tera likes to be a bit cryptic sometimes.

The best oracles are that way

. Although 1w MACD on Bitstamp not confirmed yet, just one green candle, which can still change. Their weeks ends Wed, iirc

That is true

I did not know that the weekly candles close on Wednesdays.

NOW, you know.... Cheesy

Quote from: wachtwoord on June 23, 2014, 09:38:24 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 23, 2014, 09:32:41 PM

Quote from: edwardspitz on June 23, 2014, 08:47:09 PM

.............................. [ - shortened - ]................

That is true

I did not know that the weekly candles close on Wednesdays.

NOW, you know.... Cheesy

I believe it's Sunday, but any choice is arbitrary. It should be TSD (Trailing-Seven-Days) anyway.

I think the weekly MACD on Bitstamp closes at around midnight UT on Wednesdays. You will see a new candle form at that time. I have been approximating the candle for Wednesday, and if BTC prices close above about $582 on Wednesday, then the weekly candle will be green, and if it closes below about $582, it will be red.. My theory is that there is going to be an attempt to keep prices below $582 by the end of the weekly candle.

I am NOT sure what you mean by TSD - b/c surely each new candle allows for the BTC price to close lower and then to turn green, so next Wednesday, the BTC price will have to be below $560 or something like that in order to remain red.... either way, the MACD weekly is surely on the cusp of turning green... and it could float in this limbo land for a little bit before actually going fully and unambiguously green.

Quote from: aminorex on June 23, 2014, 09:58:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 23, 2014, 09:56:59 PM

My theory is that there is going to be an attempt to keep prices below $582 by the end of the weekly candle.

My theory is that you could not prevent it if you tried.

Really? The close of the Weekly MACD candle is only about two days from now, and BTC prices in the last about 24 hours have been floating between $580 and $600, and as I type at $586.

It does NOT seem that it would be too difficult to keep the price below $582-ish... I am NOT sure about the exact number to keep the candle red. Now, I agree that next week would be another story, though.... but this week seems totally manipulable. and doable and I think that there is going to be a pretty vigorous attempt at such.. to keep the candle red.

Quote from: wachtwoord on June 23, 2014, 10:00:31 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 23, 2014, 09:56:59 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on June 23, 2014, 09:38:24 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 23, 2014, 09:32:41 PM

Quote from: edwardspitz on June 23, 2014, 08:47:09 PM

.............................. [ - shortened - ]................

That is true

I did not know that the weekly candles close on Wednesdays.

NOW, you know.... Cheesy

I believe it's Sunday, but any choice is arbitrary. It should be TSD (Trailing-Seven-Days) anyway.

I think the weekly MACD on Bitstamp closes at around midnight UT on Wednesdays. You will see a new candle form at that time. I have been approximating the candle for Wednesday, and if BTC prices close above about $582 on Wednesday, then the weekly candle will be green, and if it closes below about $582, it will be red.. My theory is that there is going to be an attempt to keep prices below $582 by the end of the weekly candle.

I am NOT sure what you mean by TSD - b/c surely each new candle allows for the BTC price to close lower and then to turn green, so next Wednesday, the BTC price will have to be below $560 or something like that in order to remain red.... either way, the MACD weekly is surely on the cusp of turning green... and it could float in this limbo land for a little bit before actually going fully and unambiguously green.

Just calculate the candles in a rolling fashion. As in: the last candle always closes right now. Never any open candles anymore and continuous insight.

Well, NOW that makes sense..... Tongue

I must just be dumb. Cheesy

and filled with emotions, as you may be able to tell? Cry

Quote from: spooderman on June 23, 2014, 11:11:44 PM

yes, who'd have thought?! Using naked girls to draw attention to your product! You learn something new every day.

NOT quite naked.

I still have to use my imagination. Sad

Quote from: aminorex on June 23, 2014, 11:32:27 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 23, 2014, 11:13:49 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 23, 2014, 09:58:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 23, 2014, 09:56:59 PM

My theory is that there is going to be an attempt to keep prices below $582 by the end of the weekly candle.

My theory is that you could not prevent it if you tried.

Really? ...I think that there is going to be a pretty vigorous attempt at such.. to keep the candle red.

Getting the polarity right is often important. I said you could not prevent it (the red candle). If I was trying to paint the candle red, my strategy would be to relax in my barcalounger with a pisco sour and la mystere de la voix bulgares on the stereo, reading a light work of latin magical realism.

You seem so certain, and for me, few things in the BTC world seem to be very certain... even though I am betting upon its long-term success.

I mean I get a sense that the current weekly MACD has been green all week, and there has been somewhat of a struggle to keep BTC prices down to a place where red weekly MACD remains reachable. However, NEXT week seems like it would be much more difficult to keep from turning green.

So, if I were a betting man and if I had some confidence, I would wager that we would get a red MACD for this week and green MACD for next week, yet my confidence remains so low that I would NOT bet very much.... possibly .01BTC some similarly smaller token amount.... and even if someone were to call me on the bet, I may fold and say I am NOT sufficiently confident about my prediction.

Quote from: Benjig on June 24, 2014, 03:26:23 AM

Quote from: ChartBuddy on June 24, 2014, 03:00:48 AM

Explanation

The trend looks very balanced, without doubt we are having a break of one or two weeks

The exact numbers at this particular moment have the potential to look much different from the numbers on June 27, so I would NOT judge any likelihood to win exactly on what numbers are 3 days beforehand. I could be wrong... but if I recall correctly there is some kind of event that will be occurring on 6/26.. that could possibly maybe have an outlier affect on prices on 6/27. HM Huh

Quote from: zimmah on June 24, 2014, 09:06:11 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 23, 2014, 11:13:49 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 23, 2014, 09:58:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 23, 2014, 09:56:59 PM

My theory is that there is going to be an attempt to keep prices below $582 by the end of the weekly candle.

My theory is that you could not prevent it if you tried.

Really? The close of the Weekly MACD candle is only about two days from now, and BTC prices in the last about 24 hours have been floating between $580 and $600, and as I type at $586.

It does NOT seem that it would be too difficult to keep the price below $582-ish... I am NOT sure about the exact number to keep the candle red. Now, I agree that next week would be another story, though.... but this week seems totally manipulable. and doable and I think that there is going to be a pretty vigorous attempt at such.. to keep the candle red.

but why would anyone even WANT to do that?

also, the candle of the past week at huobi and bitfinex were already green, so bitstamp is already lagging a week behind on the MACD. And even that it pretty late considering it could easily have turned green 2 weeks ago, but missed it by a hair due to a sudden mini-panic or whatever the hell happened two weeks ago.

You may be correct that I am giving too much importance to whether someone would want the candle to be red or green.

Quote from: pepo on June 24, 2014, 07:39:05 PM

Dont miss the hole point , every day 80.000 people start to use btc. A network worth growts exponentially when you add more users. Hold your coins and buy some tagged btc to the fbi

Wow!!!! From where do you get your statistics?

Maybe every month we get 80k new users (and even that may be a stretch), but every day, I doubt it.

I believe that there is considerable difficulties in measuring exactly how many people are using or holding BTC and the extent to which BTC are distributed among the holders/users and the quantity of BTC that the holders/users control.

Quote from: windjc on June 24, 2014, 07:40:20 PM

Quote from: Nicholas-Carraway on June 24, 2014, 07:26:08 PM

If I were going to place a bid on a blind auction to buy bitcoins, and the auction was going to be closed in a couple days, I would put a bid in at $541.00 or $551.00. There seems to be good technical support at those areas and I would feel like there would be a good risk/reward ratio. I'd feel like I'd be able to make some money on a trade (eventually) and/or it would be a good price for a long term hold as well. If I didn't win I wouldn't be too disappointed. If I did win, I'd feel pretty certain I'd be able to do well either trading out or holding. Remember, I'd have to take out $200K out of money for the deposit that was otherwise working for me elsewhere, and the time-cost involved for the auction.

Where would you place your blind bid today for any amount of bitcoin?

Nick

It depends if you actually wanted to win the auction. If I wanted to win Id put my bid somewhere between $600 and $630.

Windjc is on the right track. If you have enough money, then you may stagger your bids to make up to 10 bids between 80% of market rate to 135% of market rate, and you still may or may NOT win very many lots. If you only have enough to bid on one lot and you want to win the coins, then you will likely need to go at least 115% of market rate in order to have a decent chance of winning one lot.

Quote from: aminorex on June 24, 2014, 10:09:57 PM

Quote from: byronbb on June 24, 2014, 09:58:30 PM

Time for a dip?

monkey says intraday, up for an hour, daily, down all week.
monkey still loves silver.
monkey goes long usdjpy intraday.
monkey says vix down, spx up overnight, a little, then down more tomorrow.
monkey says long bond up on a daily basis
it's a monkey-pocalypse.

EDIT: monkey says bottom on 3 minute chart will be 18:35 US Eastern time, or else this is going down very hard indeed.

My lil' doggie can sense fear in the monkey.

Quote from: Blitz on June 24, 2014, 10:13:50 PM

Finally I have found this article embodied in a gif.

THEY say don't quote the troll; however, it seems really strange to have a supposed moderator spreading such FUD (from March 2014). Blitz - you keep posting links to that bullshit FUD article... over and over and over... And your frequent posting of such FUD article does NOT cause the article to become true, when the article is in fact a bunch of bullshit.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 24, 2014, 10:17:47 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 24, 2014, 09:42:13 PM

Wow!!!! From where do you get your statistics?

Perhaps new addresses, from blockchain.info?

Perhaps, NOT... why did you snip my text?

Most of us should realize that wallet address on blockchain.info do NOT necessarily reflect people... If we were getting 80k new bitcoin users per day, then that would be about 29million new users a year, and we are lucky to have 7 million users in total, at the moment. In other words, we need some better explanation about why anyone would assert that there are anywhere near 80k new users on any given day or in any given month for that matter. A month is more possible, but I would still like to understand the source for such info.

Quote from: sickpig on June 24, 2014, 10:24:45 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 24, 2014, 10:17:47 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 24, 2014, 09:42:13 PM

Wow!!!! From where do you get your statistics?

Perhaps new addresses, from blockchain.info?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=441336.msg4848980#msg4848980
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=441336.msg6893997#msg6893997

Maybe I do NOT understand graphs and charts, sufficiently, but I do NOT see where in that information there is an indication of 80k new bitcoin users per day?

Quote from: rjp55 on June 24, 2014, 11:13:47 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 24, 2014, 11:06:51 PM

Quote from: Blitz on June 24, 2014, 10:13:50 PM

Finally I have found this article embodied in a gif.

THEY say don't quote the troll; however, it seems really strange to have a supposed moderator spreading such FUD (from March 2014). Blitz - you keep posting links to that bullshit FUD article... over and over and over... And your frequent posting of such FUD article does NOT cause the article to become true, when the article is in fact a bunch of bullshit.

I've never seen such a clown of a moderator on any board. He sounds butthurt to me.

Yes, it seems strange and puzzling to have such a supposed moderator with such baggage and obsession with spreading disinformation.

Quote from: MatTheCat on June 24, 2014, 11:47:39 PM

Quote from: dropt on June 24, 2014, 11:44:12 PM

I've been here for quite some time and I agree with Shroomskit. You can lay claim to keeping "[your] mind agile and free from cultist's poisonous thoughts" but your actions speak otherwise.

At times I feel compelled to start a vote to have you replaced as mod of this subforum, but to be honest, I just don't care enough. Maybe someday.

Perhaps you can arrange for a 'virtual book burning', whereby all Blitz's posts are dragged and dropped onto a graphical bonfire, before you virtually burn his avatar, alive!?

GREAT IDEA!!!!!!!! +1 for that!

ON another NOTE, it appears that if the weekly MACD on bitstamp closes below $575, then it will be red... and it is about to close, soon.. and it is barely below $575, as I type.

Quote from: derpinheimer on June 25, 2014, 03:19:04 AM

So guys, 27th June.. we learn that the coins sold well above market, we should see a price to $650+ within hours after confirmation? And, on the other side (well below market) we should see a drop to $545 or less within hours after confirmation.

But what about the case where we dont know the results? Down? Up? We all know this market never responds to nothing by doing nothing.

I'm sure that several of the various winners are going to want to inform people about the price that they paid. I doubt that they would be restricted from such publicity, after they have won.

Quote from: mmitech on June 25, 2014, 08:25:43 AM

Quote from: windjc on June 25, 2014, 08:24:09 AM

Quote from: mmitech on June 25, 2014, 08:17:02 AM

Quote from: runam0k on June 25, 2014, 08:15:46 AM

Quote from: fonzie on June 25, 2014, 08:10:23 AM

Quote from: Dotto on June 25, 2014, 08:02:54 AM

Beartrap and manipulation of prices for the auction... just as spected before the rally

Bulltrap(600) in an extended bulltrap(680) has been closed, nobody cares about the auction, decline to 250$ is in progress. Nothing to see here.

$250

Good one. I don't usually find you funny, at all. Maybe I'm high on coffee. Cool

$250 lets see if that holds as well.

Says the guy who is 100% invested in Litecoin. Lol

you know nothing about me or about what I am invested into Wink

We know that you are an amorphous dufous who can barely articulate what it is he is doing or planning regarding his investment strategy, except to provide conflicting and confusing information and NOW to cheer for the downfall of bitcoin merely to attempt to prove a point that he was correct to sell half his stash at $600-ish b/c he wants to go on vacation for two years with such proceeds. Good bye... go on your vacation. See you in two years. Roll Eyes

Quote from: Parazyd on June 25, 2014, 08:26:25 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 25, 2014, 08:24:57 AM

Quote from: derpinheimer on June 25, 2014, 03:19:04 AM

So guys, 27th June.. we learn that the coins sold well above market, we should see a price to $650+ within hours after confirmation? And, on the other side (well below market) we should see a drop to $545 or less within hours after confirmation.

But what about the case where we dont know the results? Down? Up? We all know this market never responds to nothing by doing nothing.

I'm sure that several of the various winners are going to want to inform people about the price that they paid. I doubt that they would be restricted from such publicity, after they have won.

Also, I would not sell any BTC at this moment, no matter the possibility that it goes down after the auction. It's just this trend that could be anything.

It seems to be the best strategy for auction bidders to stagger their bids, and then to announce their highest bid at the end of the auction in order to rally the price in that direction... let's say there is a bid for 30% above market... then I say that you paid $740 per BTC (2.2 million) for the 3,000 BTC lot.

Within weeks the BTC market will likely rally to match and likely exceed that amount.

Quote from: atp1916 on June 25, 2014, 09:20:40 AM

Does anyone actually think that Barry and co. are gonna let the unkowns (dumpers) walk off with these coins without a fight?

This auction will turn out to be a 30k coin pump, mark my words.

You are correct, and NOPE they will NOT. Cheesy

Quote from: fonzie on June 25, 2014, 09:21:19 AM

JayJuanGee has mmitech touched you or your girl/boyfriend inappropriately? You seem so emotional, i haven´t seen you like that before. Cheesy

PS: It´s not too late to sell!

I've gotten emotional before... hehehehe, once or twice... YOU THINK IM A BOT, like you? Angry

EDIT: OH.. and BTW.... .In this current market, I am buying and HODLin...

Quote from: Parazyd on June 25, 2014, 09:37:05 AM

Quote from: gotmilk_ on June 25, 2014, 09:35:23 AM

I think the price of those coins on auction will be above market price... Biders will pump the price for sure! Where can you get 30k with one order without moving the market for +1000$??

It's actually blocks of 3k coins and one of 2.7 or 2.9k.

Would have to be the 10 highest bids in order to win all of the coins, and I suspect the highest bid could be up to 30% above market rate on that day.... it's gonna be an interesting day concerning whether we hear bid amount rumors through the day.. or whether there will be edge of the seat tension... awaiting word of the results.... like a potential dad waiting outside of the labor and delivery room... waiting to find out whether he will be a dad... and if so, the dad of what... Cheesy

Quote from: Dragonkiller on June 25, 2014, 10:31:23 AM

Quote from: tarmi on June 25, 2014, 10:25:48 AM

Quote from: Dragonkiller on June 25, 2014, 10:16:31 AM

Quote from: tarmi on June 25, 2014, 10:11:02 AM

Quote from: upupup on June 25, 2014, 10:03:35 AM

Quote from: tarmi on June 25, 2014, 09:43:28 AM

Quote from: solex on June 25, 2014, 09:37:35 AM

Quote from: mmitech on June 25, 2014, 09:16:49 AM

what is happening now is a rally between holders to sell without causing any panic, the book order is really thin with few thousands BTC at the Bid side while there is more than 12 million coins out there, do the math.

11 million as Satoshi is in for the long haul.

Auction is only two days away, so it is quite feasible that coins are being dumped to depress the market "reference" price ahead of bidding.

depressing? is that the right word?

if you are not willing to pay the market price and dumping coins on the market to bid lower...well, then the current market price is not right.

let us see then how much are they willing to pay.

I say 500.

I say its the most stupid forecast and explanation I ever heard.

well, it is even more stupid to think that someone is dumping coins to depress the "reference" price.

What is stupid about dumping coins to depress the reference point? There is nothing stupid about that.

you can manipulate the "reference" price, but how do you manipulate sealed bids?

what happens if you win the auction with 400 $ bid, or if there is not enough interest to buy the coins at all?

By making the assumption that the sealed bids have a relationship with the market price.

HELLO..... Of course sealed bids are gonna relate to the market price, and they will relate to the market price that day 6/26 (tomorrow) NOT the market price today and NOT the market price 3 years ago, yet the bids will also relate to what price bidders expect bitcoins to become 3 months to 6 months to 1 year into the future. Bidders are going to have their individualized assessments concerning how much to bid, and the price on 6/26 will be relevant to that assessment.

I am NOT any kind of sophisticated investor, so I do NOT know exactly what they are thinking, but if I had enough money to buy all of the coins, I would make 10 staggered bids and those staggered bids would be based on BTC market price at the time of my bid, towards the end of the auction time, and they would be staggered in approximately 5.5% increments between about 80% of market price and 135% of market price. At about the end of the auction, if I was NOT restricted from doing such, I would have a press release announcing what strategy I employed, and if I did NOT win any of the bids, then I would expect that there would be 10 bids that were higher than my highest bid.

Quote from: blatchcorn on June 25, 2014, 10:52:00 AM

The bear trap is worse than I expected. Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

Quote from: fonzie on June 25, 2014, 01:24:42 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 25, 2014, 01:21:45 PM

Quote from: blatchcorn on June 25, 2014, 10:52:00 AM

The bear trap is worse than I expected. Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME

Crashing to $80 or even to sub$450 seems to be a lot less likely than rallying to $700 plus and then staying above $700 for a considerable amount of time. I will grant you however that the next about 36 hours could likely continue to be fairly bearish and there could be some downward momentum, pressures, yet that is NOT certain, and with current news and momentum, I do NOT see below $500s in that time-frame... But if we did see below $500 in the next 36 hours, I will hope that I have some fiat on hand in order to buy.

Quote from: fonzie on June 25, 2014, 01:48:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 25, 2014, 01:46:20 PM

Quote from: fonzie on June 25, 2014, 01:24:42 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 25, 2014, 01:21:45 PM

Quote from: blatchcorn on June 25, 2014, 10:52:00 AM

The bear trap is worse than I expected. Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME

Crashing to $80 or even to sub$450 seems to be a lot less likely than rallying to $700 plus and then staying above $700 for a considerable amount of time. I will grant you however that the next about 36 hours could likely continue to be fairly bearish and there could be some downward momentum, pressures, yet that is NOT certain, and with current news and momentum, I do NOT see below $500s in that time-frame... But if we did see below $500 in the next 36 hours, I will hope that I have some fiat on hand in order to buy.

How much longer until you´re 100% invested in Bitcoin? Which is the destiny of every delusional bulltard... Cheesy

I am kind of flattered that a seemingly troll-tard, like you Fonzie, seems to be interested in my investment particulars.

I believe that it depends upon how a person such as me estimates my investments. I do monitor my investments, but my means for assessing my particulars evolves... and my level of disclosure evolves.

I have quite a variety of investments, and some of my investments are more liquid than others and some of my fiat comes available and is ready to be invested into something.. which in recent months, newly available investment fiat has mostly been going into BTC.

Probably only between about 5-10% of my current mostly liquid investments are in bitcoin. A large majority of my newly investment available fiat is going into BTC (attempting to acquire BTC somewhat strategically on the dips). If BTC appreciates in value faster than my other assets, then it will take on a larger percentage of my total liquid portfolio. I may diversify out of BTC on some sudden spurts upward (if such were to occur in the next 6 to 36 months) in order to increase my overall BTC holdings, but I expect that if BTC values appreciate faster than my other quasi-liquid holdings, I will allow BTC to occupy a larger percentage of all my quasi-liquid investments.

I am somewhat doubtful that the proportion of my total liquid holdings would get above 70% in BTC, but never say never. We have to see how BTC prices play out in the upcoming years, and if there were sudden appreciations in BTC, then likely I would allow it to occupy a greater portion of my liquid assets.

On the other hand, if BTC prices remain flat or decrease in value in comparison with my other quasi-liquid investments, I may reconsider the percentage of new fiat that I am putting into BTC.

Nonetheless, in the near term, I am planning to continue to invest into BTC, and even without considerable appreciation in BTC prices, I expect that BTC may come to clearly occupy 10% or even more of my total liquid investment holdings. I am continuing to assess and consider my strategy(ies) in this regard.

How about you, Fonzie? What is your investment into BTC as compared with other assets? What kinds of percentages do you have? How do you consider your BTC holdings, as compared with other kinds of assets that you hold or control?

Quote from: Bronstad on June 25, 2014, 02:21:44 PM

That's quite commendable of you JayJuanGee to actually try and have a conversation with Trollzie, instead of just telling him to fuck off.

hehehehe... I know I was a bit torn about whether to respond. Undecided

Quote from: JimboToronto on June 25, 2014, 02:29:32 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 25, 2014, 02:17:32 PM

How about you, Fonzie? What is your investment into BTC as compared with other assets? What kinds of percentages do you have? How do you consider your BTC holdings, as compared with other kinds of assets that you hold or control?

Fonzie's assets?

Let me guess... 1 slingshot, 3 Pokemon cards, 1 yoyo, 2 GI Joe dolls, a Betsy Wetsy action figure and an iPhone.

Maybe his mommy also bought him a Schwinn.

Cheesy

Yeah,... .he he he.. the reality of the situation.

You did forget about the blow-up doll ("friend") Cheesy

OH>>>> EDIT.... That must have been your reference to "Betsy Wetsy." Shocked

Quote from: edwardspitz on June 25, 2014, 07:31:09 PM

Quote from: Adrian-x on June 25, 2014, 06:25:49 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 25, 2014, 06:10:40 PM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on June 25, 2014, 05:06:20 PM

Thanks for cutting my post into half, don't do that again. I guess you agree with point 2 and 3. [ ... ]

It is good etiquette to trim the posts you are replying to, leaving only the parts that are relevant to the reply. However I should have added "[ ... ]" to show that parts were omitted; my apologies for being lazy.

Yes Jorge!, until you join the cult we hold you to a different standard, Cheesy

Jorge became a cultist some time ago... I clearly remember that he wrote that he doubled (or tripled?) his BTC portfolio. Todays drop was clearly Jorge cashing out because he needed a little extra cash for the auction.

Zero times ~~zero~~ two is still zero, as far as I know my math basics.

EDIT: fixed above after I realized my mistake, by reading other posts... Wink

Quote from: windjc on June 25, 2014, 08:23:00 PM

Quote from: kireinaha on June 25, 2014, 06:46:10 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 25, 2014, 06:38:50 PM

Quote from: kireinaha on June 25, 2014, 06:31:34 PM

It is magical thinking on our part to believe that anyone will pay above market prices for bitcoins, especially in this tepid market.

If you were ever going to pay above market for btc, now would be the time to do it. Some time 5-10 days from now, BTC will put in its lowest daily bottom, and prices will always be higher thereafter. (Says the monkey, but I will take responsibility this time, because I agree -- and yes, perhaps it is magical thinking. He is, after all, a magic monkey.)

lol what is this magic monkey that I keep hearing of? I must have missed something many pages ago. Is this some rhesus monkey that you've imprisoned and hooked to electrodes to exploit his clairvoyant talents?

Dude. Lets bet. Any amount up to 100 BTC that they go above market price. Your logic is so irrational, I feel you should be punished for spreading stupidity on these boards. Money where mouth is please.

I tend to agree with you WindJC, yet are you saying that all ten lots are going to go above market rate. I would think that everyone here realizes that it is likely that all ten lots are NOT going to go to one bidder for the same price... but I tend to believe that all of them are going to go above market rate, yet I would NOT be surprised if one or two lots did NOT.

Quote from: oda.krell on June 25, 2014, 09:08:17 PM

We should probably start defining what we mean by "above market" or "below market".

Since the announcement of the auction, daily median has fluctuated between, what, 650 and 550? Something like that, I think.

So, new rule: if you say "they'll sell above/below market", you better specify the actual price, otherwise that prediction is sounding a bit fuzzy.

That market price cannot be pinpointed, exactly. The bidders will have a 12 hour window to bid, and their perception of market price will be at the time that they submit their bid. I would imagine that most are going to submit their bid in the final quartile of the 12 hour window.. so in that sense, market price will be what it is during those last three hours of the auction (stable or NOT)... my point is that there are too many variables to expect a poster here to both predict whether bidders will be bidding above or below market rate and to also determine what that market rate will be... and what the reference point for that market rate should be.

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 25, 2014, 10:04:06 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 25, 2014, 09:59:59 PM

Quote from: edwardspitz on June 25, 2014, 09:55:47 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on June 25, 2014, 09:52:36 PM

seriously puzzled by the selling pressure, oh well more for me.

Someone wants to short on Finex I think...

more like, someone wants to cover their short at the best possible price, before it is too late.

monkey says the next 3 hours look grim.

I'm gonna have to put you on ignore. That monkey nonsense is annoying as hell.

WOW>>... You lasted much longer than me, and my lil' doggie. I did NOT even mention my lil' doggie, and shroomy put me on ignore. Cheesy

My lil' doggie finds monkey to be quite amusing, but for some reason, she (my lil doggie) remains a little bit scared of monkey.

Quote from: mmitech on June 25, 2014, 10:29:32 PM

some known early adopters are dumping, and many other adopters/investors/developers are slowly losing faith (one of them speaking), Bitcoin needs another bubble ASAP, bubbles are the only thing keeps Bitcoin ongoing.

We have already explored the topic of mmitech's BTC investment to be able to understand that his BTC investment strategy, to the extent that one exists, is NOT reflective of anybody except for himself - b/c either his BTC investment strategy, to the extent that it could be called such, is eccentric or not really explanable in English - at least mmitech has NOT been able to accomplish any meaningful explanation that makes sense to anyone beyond his peculiar eccentricities...

By the way, if you did NOT catch this, mmitech is supposedly religiously opposed to earning interest on his money (nothing against religions), except for some reason he believes it is o.k. and not against his religion to invest in btc, ltc and seemingly in other cryptos, if they were to strike his peculiar fancy.

Quote from: windjc on June 25, 2014, 10:47:44 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 25, 2014, 10:29:32 PM

some known early adopters are dumping, and many other adopters/investors/developers are slowly losing faith (one of them speaking), Bitcoin needs another bubble ASAP, bubbles are the only thing keeps Bitcoin ongoing.

Bitcoin days destroyed says differently.

So please shut up.

Hows litecoin doing, btw?

He has definitely been in a FUD spreading mode recently, and since I had NOT really noticed, previously, I cannot comment on whether mmitech was always such a dufous. Tongue

Quote from: Dragonkiller on June 25, 2014, 11:05:45 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 25, 2014, 11:03:43 PM

Quote from: windjc on June 25, 2014, 08:23:00 PM

Quote from: kireinaha on June 25, 2014, 06:46:10 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 25, 2014, 06:38:50 PM

Quote from: kireinaha on June 25, 2014, 06:31:34 PM

It is magical thinking on our part to believe that anyone will pay above market prices for bitcoins, especially in this tepid market.

If you were ever going to pay above market for btc, now would be the time to do it. Some time 5-10 days from now, BTC will put in its lowest daily bottom, and prices will always be higher thereafter. (Says the monkey, but I will take responsibility this time, because I agree -- and yes, perhaps it is magical thinking. He is, after all, a magic monkey.)

lol what is this magic monkey that I keep hearing of? I must have missed something many pages ago. Is this some rhesus monkey that you've imprisoned and hooked to electrodes to exploit his clairvoyant talents?

Dude. Lets bet. Any amount up to 100 BTC that they go above market price. Your logic is so irrational, I feel you should be punished for spreading stupidity on these boards. Money where mouth is please.

I tend to agree with you WindJC, yet are you saying that all ten lots are going to go above market rate. I would think that everyone here realizes that it is likely that all ten lots are NOT going to go to one bidder for the same price... but I tend to believe that all of them are going to go above market rate, yet I would NOT be surprised if one or two lots did NOT.

Someone willing to buy all 30k should be prepared to pay a higher premium, so I think it's highly possible that all coins will be sold to a single entity, all above the market price.

Pretty improbably scenario in my opinion (since there are 10 lots); however, there is nothing wrong with having differing opinions regarding predicting probable outcomes.

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on June 25, 2014, 11:14:10 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 25, 2014, 11:00:14 PM

Quote from: EuroTrash on June 25, 2014, 10:58:50 PM

Quote from: gentlemand on June 25, 2014, 10:49:45 PM

You betcha. Peter Todd dumped at LEAST five figures. Dollars, that is.

On a side I wonder how much the core devs are invested personally, out of pure curiosity.
Jeff Garzik publically stated he "only" has 348 BTC which is far less than some speculators here.
I have met another vip core dev in person and I understood he is in the thousands BTC but below 10k.

Gavin has (had last year) more than 20K BTC

Where did you get that from? I asked him long ago if he mined and made a bunch of Bitcoins early on and he said he didn't mine and didn't have many.

It's probably NOT a good idea for publicly known figures in the bitcoin space to be too detailed about their own BTC holdings, unless there is some meaningful or serious questions about their integrity regarding their role in bitcoin... concerning manipulation or something like that.

Quote from: Erdogan on June 25, 2014, 11:33:41 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 25, 2014, 08:24:57 AM

Quote from: derpinheimer on June 25, 2014, 03:19:04 AM

So guys, 27th June.. we learn that the coins sold well above market, we should see a price to $650+ within hours after confirmation? And, on the other side (well below market) we should see a drop to $545 or less within hours after confirmation.

But what about the case where we dont know the results? Down? Up? We all know this market never responds to nothing by doing nothing.

I'm sure that several of the various winners are going to want to inform people about the price that they paid. I doubt that they would be restricted from such publicity, after they have won.

So the marshals forgot to mention if or how and when they will announce the result? Well that's depressing (for the bitcoin price).

With the government there should be some additional transparency, and announcement, but it seems that "ought" versus "is" are two different stories. Hopefully, the parties themselves are NOT restricted from announcing what they did or if they won and at what price.

Quote from: Miz4r on June 25, 2014, 11:45:09 PM

Quote from: kireinaha on June 25, 2014, 11:32:57 PM

Quote from: Miz4r on June 25, 2014, 11:29:26 PM

Quote from: kireinaha on June 25, 2014, 11:19:54 PM

Anyone else notice how all the bitcoin high priests and cheerleaders have been conveniently absent for the past couple weeks? The exponential log charts have been tucked into suitcases and the purveyors of these bitcoin pipe dreams are heading onto the next big thing. Makes you wonder... all of us still holding... are we the bag holders afterall?

Ask yourself that question, you've been one of the biggest bitcoin cheerleaders lately convinced the price was going to explode upwards. Funny how these types are the first to lose faith and do a complete turnaround. Better let go of that heavy bag of yours and let someone take it who can handle it and have more realistic expectations of bitcoin.

You might have me confused with someone else, friend. I'm typically pessimistic or mildly enthusiastic at best, but my outlook changes on a weekly basis. I honestly can't remember all that I've written in the past, but I've never promised anyone riches and if you look back enough, there have been times that I claimed we're all late adopters and missed the train. I'm feeling that way again now.

I don't think so, here are some of your own posts lately:

Quote from: kireinaha on June 25, 2014, 09:33:02 PM

I think it's pretty clear that we're going to remain flat or slightly downward for the next few weeks or months. There are way too many market players who -- for whatever reason -- are doing their best to keep the price low. It doesn't matter. Within a few short years, anyone holding 10 bitcoins or more will be able to retire and live out their lives on a tropical island if they so choose.

Quote from: kireinaha on June 03, 2014, 08:50:07 PM

According to the logistic model, we'll be there by the end of 2015. Anyone who owns at least 5 coins now will be rich by 2016.

Quote from: kireinaha on May 21, 2014, 06:52:35 PM

Even the most vocal haters are coming around and embracing bitcoin. Yup, this next rally is going to be epic.

But the strange thing is, you seem to lose your entire faith in the above whenever the price is going down a bit:

Quote from: kireinaha on May 13, 2014, 09:41:53 PM

has the exponential growth trend broken? Maybe it's seriously time to re-assess the future of bitcoin growth.

And now you seem to be losing faith again. Please make up your mind and grow some balls.

+1... thanks for that Miz4r.... Cool

Quote from: bigasic on June 26, 2014, 12:25:54 AM

Don't know if anyones mentioned this or not, but maybe all the buying that would normally be taking place right now is on hold because they are waiting to see if they win their bid, if they don't they will go back to buying. So, if im right, that means after the bidding is done, we will see a massive spike because the big buyers will be back to buying and not trying to win that bid that costs millions of dollars.

If they do NOT win the bid, then it is probably pretty likely that the money that they had for bidding has been allocated for BTC purchasing.

Quote from: Erdogan on June 26, 2014, 01:33:36 AM

Quote from: bigasic on June 26, 2014, 01:09:34 AM

Here is the link to the guy that offered spot minus 15 percent for all the coins..

http://www.businessinsider.com/falcon-global-capital-offers-to-buy-the-fbis-bitcoins-2014-2

All the other potensial bidders will now think: Gee, that low! Well, we can go lower!
So offensive, much logical.

They will only think that if they do NOT want to win the coins. If they want to win the coins, then they will think the opposite - and that is: In order to win the bid, I am going to have to bid at least more than 85% of market price. No one who wants to win, will really expect to be able to win for less than 85% of market price. Additionally, once they are into registering and tying up $200K for at least two weeks, they likely have intentions to attempt to win at least one of the lots of coins.

Quote from: derpinheimer on June 26, 2014, 03:26:38 AM

Quote from: Untitled87 on June 26, 2014, 03:21:20 AM

That double bottom though

Eh, second bottom slightly lower than first. Plus this happens all the time and another dump puts us lower. Double bottom does not work with bitcoin. Double top usually does.

I thought that we had a consensus that BTC prices would be flat and/or tending downward until about midday Friday... then thereafter, we would either get gradual upward movement or sharp upward movement in prices. The sharp upward movement in prices scenario would come in the event that the SR auction brought news of winning bids much above the then market rate.

Quote from: ALToids on June 26, 2014, 10:00:02 AM

So we're stuck at 569 until Friday then?

supposed to be 567, don't you know about numerology? Cheesy

Quote from: Miz4r on June 26, 2014, 10:49:09 AM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 26, 2014, 10:08:09 AM

Quote from: mmitech on June 26, 2014, 08:45:17 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on June 26, 2014, 08:38:27 AM

This thread is becoming unbearable

if people like shroomskit stopped bashing on every analyze or a prediction or a question and simply not take everything personally this thread would be cleaner, but well this is what happens when the price is not moving.

as I said before, Bitcoin needs bubbles for its survival, if that doesn't happen soon, the community will simply kill it.

What do you mean by: "the community will simply kill it"?

He probably means that the community is so addicted to bubbles that they need another one soon or they start suffering from bubble withdrawal symptoms and die as a result. You can just look at mmitech and already see the early symptoms. Tongue

+1 hehehehe... mmitech.. Huh

if you can figure any of that out Cheesy

Quote from: Asrael999 on June 26, 2014, 02:24:02 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit_Disgrace on June 26, 2014, 02:11:51 PM

Reading about mmitech issue makes me wonder...

How do the Muslims deal with banks? Interest = 0%??

serious question.

If I understand it correctly , Muslims are not permitted to earn interest on money, this is "Riba" and is forbidden.
What they can do is receive rent for an asset they own - so a Muslim may buy an apartment, a physical good, and receive rent for allowing someone else to use it.
Given that bitcoin is not a physical thing on which one can earn a return I would have thought it was a bit of a grey area for Islamic finance anyway. Equities are ok as are securitizations as in those you buy the right to a series of cashflows that derive from a real asset, bitcoin hmm, tricky.

Yeah... the IRS rule clarification may have helped to declare bitcoin as property rather than as a currency... but in any event it is very conflicting to weave through the incorporation of such a practice in the modern world while maintaining various financial investments.

Quote from: aminorex on June 26, 2014, 02:50:47 PM

All human systems will be gamed.

A quick ride to 800 is not all that unlikely, after the auction. It is major resistance after all. I would expect an initial continuation of the down-trend, as those who want the auction to pump the market are disappointed, and give up. When they are done, and the fiat is warmed up, then the upside will be seen.

Look at the last two swings. The upswing was quite rapid, and the downswing relatively gradual. Most people are trained on equities. They know that bull markets are gradual things, climbing a proverbial wall of worry, while bear markets are panic driven, often rapid, sometimes sudden. But in pair trades like BTCUSD, either component can be in a bull or bear market, so inverting the chart, we see that the current condition is characteristic of a bullish swing in USD, following a quick bearish swing during the latter part of May. I would not extend this interpretation to the November spike because the topping phase of a hype cycle is a very different dynamic, with different motivations.

What I draw from this is that holders of BTC have a need of USD. Given the volumes we are seeing, it might even be that a single seller is driving the trend. The 500/8hr guy finally succumbed to his wife's insistence on diversifying into u.s. equity mutual funds like all the "wise" financial advice (propaganda) would insist. (Sorry dude, you are doomed now, unless you can hold those funds until 2040 and USD can last that long.)

I don't think the USD bull market can last much longer. USDJPY is certainly turning. Very different dynamics, of course, but post-SCO outlook for USD is changing rapidly on several fronts. Faith in ECB persists while faith in FRB is flagging. Trade is being re-denominated (and simultaneously shrinking) so that US fiat exports face lower demand. RMB floats in 2015. Iran is exporting a lot of oil to China now.

I'm simplifying for brevity, telling a story by telegraphy.

Who cares what you think? I wanna know what monkey thinks. Cheesy

Quote from: Blitz on June 26, 2014, 03:34:24 PM

Quote from: mmitech on June 26, 2014, 03:25:48 PM

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/06/26/bitcoin-bitstamp/

Interesting tidbit for many here:

"They make the obvious prediction that the Bitcoin will be sold for under-market value"

Are you guys going to be flaming the Bitstamp owners now?

Just b/c they hold certain status positions in the bitcoin space does NOT mean that they are correct in their prediction(s). We will probably know at the close of business on Friday or possibly by Saturday whether they were correct, or NOT.

Quote from: Richy_T on June 26, 2014, 03:34:38 PM

Quote from: kireinaha on June 26, 2014, 03:17:28 PM

So who are you going to listen to?

No one.

Ghost busters!!!!

Quote from: Blitz on June 26, 2014, 07:55:38 PM

The most hazardous thing about this is that not only do they need the price to increase, not only do they need the price to increase before it decreases, but they also need the price to increase within a certain time. A prolonged sideways movement would kill them as their liquidation price rises along with the interest. Can you imagine the pressure that must be felt?

YOU make a pretty decent point here, Blitz - except it is my sense that the opposite is currently occurring. There is probably considerable concern from various whales that there is pressure for BTC prices to go up near or after the auction... But a sufficient number of whales are o.k. with pushing the price down.. and they want the price to go down before going up.. or to stay down before going up. They want to continue to extract coins in these price ranges for as long as they can... before the price moves upward (which seems inevitable, but a matter of how long it can be kept down).

It is possible that whale manipulators can keep the price down, even after the auction, especially if we can get some more FUD or some more news that causes hesitation and they can exaggerate and manipulate that news for a while.... so for example, if we could get another US Marshall's sale of 144K coins in the near future.. then that may also help to generate additional concerns about how well the BTC market is going to absorb those coins... or maybe there will be some China news that can be worked (though that kind of china news does NOT seem to be working too well, recently). Anyhow, my point is that there are ways to attempt to manipulate and keep the price down for possibly a few more months at the most?.... and at some point they won't be able to hold it back anymore.. and that is when we will get our CCMF... ... When exactly, though, for the CCMF, is really difficult to gauge exactly when and how far up it will go, but it's gonna be coming to a theatre near you..

Quote from: Miz4r on June 26, 2014, 11:12:25 PM

Quote from: windjc on June 26, 2014, 10:59:58 PM

One of the best day traders on TradingView has this to say:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/i6Bft9Je/

Isn't that the same guy who went leveraged long at $660 and is still holding on to it? Not that I don't agree with that chart but he really had an off-day then if he is supposed to be the best day trader there lol.

"one of the best" Cheesy

Quote from: Blitz on June 26, 2014, 11:19:00 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on June 26, 2014, 11:13:47 PM

Not sure if it's actually the same guy.

I think "Idiot McMargincall" just quoted the tradingview guy, kinda like a rallying cry.

(emphasis on "crying")

He at least claims to be: http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/23k3dt/ive_been_projecting_a_continuation_of_this_rally/cgxuqou

AFAIK he also has managed to have a 80% drawdown from 35k to 7.5k recently. Regardless of his current prediction and its outcome, if this kind of discipline is what the best BTC trader on TradingView has to offer, I wonder what the others look like.

"one of the best" Cheesy

Quote from: Blitz on June 26, 2014, 11:27:25 PM

Never said he's wrong. You said he's the best trader on TradingView, I implied it's weird that the best trader experienced an 80% drawdown thanks to leverage.

"one of the best" Wink

Quote from: aminorex on June 26, 2014, 11:31:13 PM

Personally, I am incredibly bullish. My monkey, however, thinks we're near the intraday top, and sees 4 more days down before a likely bull market starts in earnest. I am following my monkey.

If your monkey is wrong, you better spank the monkey. Tongue

Quote from: oda.krell on June 26, 2014, 11:56:39 PM

Are we piling onto Blitz because he's a mod/Hero and made a bad call, and some in here might have followed it? Are we really doing that? When all throughout the last bear market there was page after page of bullish hybris, "buy all you can, never will be as cheap as now!", "we've hit rock bottom. take a loan on your grandmother to buy moar!", by newbie, senior and hero members alike. Yeah, I thought as much.

EDIT: ... also agreed on the windjc weirdness. Don't know what happened, but I remember a few interesting discussions with you. Now it's down to antagonistic one-liners.

Maybe WindJC's account was taken over by an alien? Undecided

Quote from: BitChick on June 27, 2014, 06:13:49 AM

Quote from: SirChiko on June 27, 2014, 05:13:16 AM

Quote from: BitChick on June 27, 2014, 04:49:12 AM

Quote from: vleroybrown on June 27, 2014, 04:04:05 AM

Going to $1000 by July 4th. Or Now

I believe. A friend of mine, whom I told many months ago about BTC, said she was praying and God told her, and it appears with a feeling of urgancy, to invest in Bitcoin.

Now that is bullish news! Grin

Is that for real? Cheesy

Also it would be nice to see 800 by end of June but not real at all.

Yes. My friend called this morning. I trust her too based on other things God has spoken to her. It was weird that it was today, the day before the silk road coins are being auctioned. She knew nothing about that. I had to walk her through the entire process because she did not even know where to buy coins. I did caution her she might be in for a bumpy ride. Bitcoin is not an ivestment for those that like a slow and steady ride. Wink

This is getting unreal this spiritual premonition stuff. I am all for positive attitude and hoping for bitcoin price increases.

By the way, BitChick.. I am glad that you at least to keep it real for the gal, and to tell her that there are possibilities of ups and downs, and probably, you should also indicate that there could also be a possibility of losing all of her money, even though most adult investors should recognize this possibility.

Next someone is going to suggest that their astrologist recommended bitcoin... Cheesy

Quote from: BitChick on June 27, 2014, 06:50:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 27, 2014, 06:47:44 AM

Quote from: BitChick on June 27, 2014, 06:13:49 AM

Quote from: SirChiko on June 27, 2014, 05:13:16 AM

Quote from: BitChick on June 27, 2014, 04:49:12 AM

Quote from: vleroybrown on June 27, 2014, 04:04:05 AM

Going to $1000 by July 4th. Or Now

I believe. A friend of mine, whom I told many months ago about BTC, said she was praying and God told her, and it appears with a feeling of urgancy, to invest in Bitcoin.

Now that is bullish news! Grin

Is that for real? Cheesy

Also it would be nice to see 800 by end of June but not real at all.

Yes. My friend called this morning. I trust her too based on other things God has spoken to her. It was weird that it was today, the day before the silk road coins are being auctioned. She knew nothing about that. I had to walk her through the entire process because she did not even know where to buy coins. I did caution her she might be in for a bumpy ride. Bitcoin is not an ivestment for those that like a slow and steady ride. Wink

This is getting unreal this spiritual premonition stuff. I am all for positive attitude and hoping for price increases - next someone is going to suggest that their astrologist recommended bitcoin... Cheesy

And that might be the best advice anyone using astrology has ever given! Wink

Ok... fine.. at least it is a real story about a real experience that you had. I have NO doubt that you are NOT pulling our leg about something that actually happened to you.

Quote from: windjc on June 27, 2014, 06:56:12 AM

I was considering this excellent point earlier today. But since this guy actually posted it, I will give him the credit for the realization:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/297o76/regarding_the_auction_remember_this_every_losing/

That very point has been discussed a few times within this thread in the past week or so.. the point being that the losing participants in the auction are likely to still be interested in coin.... and they will have money to purchase bitcoin at that point or soon thereafter. Even I posted something about that following another post.

I mean such a description of the reality of the circumstances also goes with the general reasonable presumption that entities that go through the trouble of participating in this auction and taking $200K out of circulation (to deposit with the USMS) actually have an intention to attempt to win some of the lots of BTC that they are bidding upon...

Few of these bidders are probably so daft, as many bear contributors to this thread seem to think, to really believe that they would be able to win many, if any, of the lots of BTC at or below market value on that day.

I would anticipate that out of the 10 lots of BTC that three or fewer of those lots are going to go for equal to market price or less, and market price will be measured within the last couple hours of the auction, when most, if NOT all, of the bids are going to be submitted. The bidders are likely going to wait until the end of the bidding period b/c they are going to base their bids specifically on the price action of BTC during the day and at the end of the auction time in order to calculate their bid amount in accordance with that then BTC market price.

Quote from: BitChick on June 27, 2014, 07:02:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 27, 2014, 06:52:56 AM

Quote from: BitChick on June 27, 2014, 06:50:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 27, 2014, 06:47:44 AM

Quote from: BitChick on June 27, 2014, 06:13:49 AM

Quote from: SirChiko on June 27, 2014, 05:13:16 AM

Quote from: BitChick on June 27, 2014, 04:49:12 AM

Quote from: vleroybrown on June 27, 2014, 04:04:05 AM

Going to $1000 by July 4th. Or Now

I believe. A friend of mine, whom I told many months ago about BTC, said she was praying and God told her, and it appears with a feeling of urgancy, to invest in Bitcoin.

Now that is bullish news! Grin

Is that for real? Cheesy

Also it would be nice to see 800 by end of June but not real at all.

Yes. My friend called this morning. I trust her too based on other things God has spoken to her. It was weird that it was today, the day before the silk road coins are being auctioned. She knew nothing about that. I had to walk her through the entire process because she did not even know where to buy coins. I did caution her she might be in for a bumpy ride. Bitcoin is not an ivestment for those that like a slow and steady ride. Wink

This is getting unreal this spiritual premonition stuff. I am all for positive attitude and hoping for price increases - next someone is going to suggest that their astrologist recommended bitcoin... Cheesy

And that might be the best advice anyone using astrology has ever given! Wink

Ok... fine.. at least it is a real story about a real experience that you had. I have NO doubt that you are NOT pulling our leg about something that actually happened to you.

Totally true. If you read through my posts you can see I am not shy about my belief in God. Which hasn't won me much popularity on this forum BTW. Wink

This friend I am talking about has been a major spiritual "mentor" in my life so I respect her greatly. But I tried to explain all the risks before she bought. I guess that shows a little lack of faith on my part? I think I just want her to have realistic expectations though.

Yeah, there are a lot of religious people, including a lot of my friends and family. I proclaim NOT to be religious, yet I try to be accepting and sensitive to some religious ways of thinking.

Regarding bitcoin, we can also lead by example, somewhat, yet each of our investment situations are going to be different from our friends and acquaintances, and accordingly, they may need to figure out an appropriate amount of risk for themselves.

Therefore, even if we are generally true believers or strong believers or very bullish on the long-term future of bitcoin, we would be doing somewhat of a disservice to people, if we were to NOT provide some of the negative or NOT describe some of the risk. And, bitcoin remains fairly complicated to really understand - though I have attempted to put together an introduction e-mail to help out potential new investors (and I have e-mailed variations of such bitcoin information outlines to friends and relatives for their consideration for investing.

Certainly, now seems to be a much better time to get into bitcoin (as compared with any time on or after December 2013), and so in recent weeks I have been promoting the idea a little more than I had been over the preceding about 6 months.

Quote from: Tzupy on June 27, 2014, 08:47:56 AM

It's the 27th, I voted 575$ and so far 65% have been wrong.

This is the weird thing about the poll. Initially, I was thinking that the auction was on 6/26, so to predict the price on 6/27 would be more meaningful.

However, since the auction is on 6/27, we could get a bit of screwing up of highs and lows, and in other words, many people may end up being right, depending upon what time of the day.

I am getting a sense (maybe from chips, or from astrology or god) that there is going to remain some continued downward pressures on BTC prices until about 3 hours before the end of the auction time.. and possibly a little longer than that. Yet, at the same time, I am NOT sure about whether there will be an ability to contain the prices downward. So let's say downward will be between $550 and $580.

If there are some kinds of leaks about the bids being at or above then BTC price, this may cause BTC prices to clime beyond $580 and into the low $600s.

Once the auction is clearly over, it seems inevitable that we are going to hear additional leaks about what the bids were, and those bids are likely going to have been in the $600s and possibly in the upper $600s and maybe even into the $700s. This leaked news (whether rumor or NOT) will likely cause BTC prices to be pushed up into the mid-$600s. then over the weekend, we could likely continue to get upward movement and then prices into the $700s or even $800s, as was mentioned by several posters earlier.

I really have my doubts about shooting to a new all time high before late August, but who the hell really knows, and if there gets to be too many whales wanting to get in, then HODLers are NOT going to want to sell until the upsurge in prices has run its course - accordingly, we are likely going to get some floating between $700s and $850s prior to the upsurge that will go above and beyond the old ATH - and likely in the $2k to $3k territory in either late 2014 or early 2015 - and some are predicting $4-6K territory, which seems a bit too optimistic for me... even though I would NOT mind seeing such an upsurge in prices within that same time line.

I really doubt that prices would go to $10k before mid 2015, but seems plausible in the late 2015 time frame.. but then if we are talking another late 2015 bubble, then such a bubble could possibly go beyond $10k. There will NOT be another halving of the BTC mining until late 2016, which will likely cause some additional upsurge in BTC prices (so long as BTC is still around by then).

Quote from: ibankbitcoins on June 27, 2014, 09:03:38 AM

Update:
Bullish trendline being tested now! Make or break now.

WTF?

Are you on the same planet?

There is NO testing of any bullish trend until after this auction... maybe 18 hours or so from now.

Then we will have to see what is the state of affairs in bitcoin land to see whether bullish or bearish trends are being tested or going to be tested.

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 27, 2014, 02:03:18 PM

This place has gone completely insane.
Everyone is completely obsessed with what price the coins went for as if it's the most important thing ever in the history if Bitcoin yet NOT ONE person here has been able to answer this:

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 26, 2014, 12:13:13 PM

Also i wonder you mention below or above market price. Is that the price the minute the auction closes?The price it was when the bids had to be in? The price on Stamp or somewhere else? Who decides what the market price actually is?

Could it be that noone really has a clue?

You idiots can't even tell what above or under the market is yet it's the only thing you talk about.
As i said before this place is at the same level as the Btce trollbox. Just as dumb.

Oh and in the meantime all you panic sellers probably sold more than there are coins in the auction out of fear of that same auction.
That alone is one of the most retarded things ever. If someone needed more proof how dumb Bitcoin traders are, there you go.

If shroomski would take half the posters off of ignore, then he may come to realize that his various questions have been asked and answered a number of times.

Then again, maybe he would NOT realize the truth bc his vision seems to be skewed by his various themes that we are all idiots (except him, of course). Cheesy

Quote from: roslinpl on June 27, 2014, 11:05:45 PM

Quote from: atp1916 on June 27, 2014, 10:52:47 PM

http://www.meetup.com/Women-in-Bitcoin/photos/21791672/361735032/

There are few guys on that photo too even if it is called "Women in Bitcoin"

Sexchange or missed title?

Some guys do NOT want to be left out.... Wink

Quote from: MatTheCat on June 28, 2014, 12:24:58 AM

Quote from: windjc on June 28, 2014, 12:01:10 AM

WTF MAT?? Why aren't we going doooooowwwwwwwnnnnnnnn??

Don't worry, I just made another one of my impulsive no logic rush of blood to the head trades and went long at $600. So things should start turning to the downside pretty soon I would imagine.

The last carefully considered long position I took was at $560..........but sitting staring at the 15 minute chart with my nose 1 inch away from the screen, I noticed some whale made a big fucking 500 BTC dump, so I cashed out my position at $560...2 days later, $600, some $15 above my $585 target....

See....there we go...down to $593.88 within ten minutes of me taking my long position. You can always rely on the market to go the exact opposite way of these impulse trades that I tend to make and seem incapable of exercising any control over.

Just BUY and HODL. Stop trading.

Quote from: BTCfan1 on June 28, 2014, 01:51:31 AM

Quote from: Blazedout419 on June 28, 2014, 01:29:16 AM

Amazed that the prices have been so solid with the auction stuff...as always though HODL

we wont go past 600 until the winning bid is revealed

bid"S"..... there are 10 lots and accordingly 10 winning bidS

EDIT: Additionally, the more bids that you know about the more information that you are going to have to infer the winning bid(s).. For example, if you made 10 bids, you are going to know quite a bit more than if you only know about one bid.

Quote from: phosphorush on June 28, 2014, 03:43:59 AM

fuck BTC, i was hoping to buy some cheap BTC today Cry

You had a chance for cheap, right before the auction ended, you had an opportunity for $575-ish, and that's pretty cheap.

Quote from: YogoH on June 28, 2014, 05:47:11 AM

I think that all the new posters here and on reddit is a good sign.

Are the overall numbers (adoption) increasing though?

Quote from: YogoH on June 28, 2014, 09:31:15 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 28, 2014, 09:24:17 AM

Quote from: YogoH on June 28, 2014, 05:47:11 AM

I think that all the new posters here and on reddit is a good sign.

Are the overall numbers (adoption) increasing though?

http://www.bitcoinpulse.com/

Yes, although it increases faster during the bubbles.

It's good to look at those various indicators on bitcoin pulse from time to time.... We do seem due for another bubble, but I would NOT be surprised if we have several more weeks of either flat or just gradual increases through upper $600s and if we start to get into the $700 territory, there may be some attention and then by $800 people may begin to think that they better get on board for the bubble before it is too late..

I am mostly in BTC (to the extent that I plan to get "in"), and just investing most of my new fiat into BTC as it comes in my direction... which sometimes takes a while to get... The rapid bubble could happen soon, but I am expecting that the more likely scenario will be that we will have a gradual increase in BTC prices first maybe over the next 6 weeks or a little longer...

Then the violence, i mean upswing... WHY NOT?

Quote from: Voktar on June 28, 2014, 11:26:22 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on June 28, 2014, 11:06:50 AM

Unlike bitcoin, gold has practical application besides storing and transferring wealth.

So how do you call being able to formalise a contract without trust or third parties involved? A public ledger that anyone can use to vote where no one can lie or cheat the system?

Bitcoin can be the money of the internet and a store of wealth but it has a lots of practical applications too. If you are only seeing the currency side of Bitcoin you are missing a lot of potential.

He is only seeing the fabricated ponzi scheme side of bitcoin and the made up regligiosity of bitcoin... Pumpkinhead is NOT intending on engaging in a meaningful dialogue about various beneficial aspects of bitcoin, he just wants to attempt to simplify and then proclaim that he has all the answers and knowledge and that we are NOT listening to his brilliance... which his post history would show brilliance within Pumpkinhead (at least in regard to his bitcoin proclamations) is far from an actual tangible.. Though he may be brilliant at spreading FUD and/or derailing us from engaging in meaningful and productive discussions.

Quote from: aminorex on June 28, 2014, 11:42:27 AM

C'mon people. Quoting Mervyn_Pumpkinhead is really destroying this thread. Cut that out.

He is going to single-handedly destroy bitcoin too.... OMG...

NOT

Cheesy

Quote from: stan.distortion on June 28, 2014, 11:59:27 AM

Quote from: aminorex on June 28, 2014, 11:42:27 AM

C'mon people. Quoting Mervyn_Pumpkinhead is really destroying this thread. Cut that out.

A much better quoting policy

Seen a few articles lately from localised news sources about relatively small businesses being held to ransom with bitcoin and my tinfoil hat tells me its the start of a smear campaign. Probably just perfectly normal paranoia but just in case...

This a real phenomenon that is going to need to be dealt with or addressed in some various ways... I certainly do NOT know the solution... except maybe there are some multi-sig solutions... but those seem to create problems as well...

people robbed banks in the wild wild west b/c that is where the money was....

greed can be very powerful... and taking from someone else (or attempts at such) can be somewhat direct with bitcoin...

Quote from: stan.distortion on June 28, 2014, 03:00:31 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 28, 2014, 02:42:08 PM

Quote from: stan.distortion on June 28, 2014, 11:59:27 AM

Quote from: aminorex on June 28, 2014, 11:42:27 AM

C'mon people. Quoting Mervyn_Pumpkinhead is really destroying this thread. Cut that out.

A much better quoting policy

Seen a few articles lately from localised news sources about relatively small businesses being held to ransom with bitcoin and my tinfoil hat tells me its the start of a smear campaign. Probably just perfectly normal paranoia but just in case...

This a real phenomenon that is going to need to be dealt with or addressed in some various ways... I certainly do NOT know the solution... except maybe there are some multi-sig solutions... but those seem to create problems as well...

people robbed banks in the wild wild west b/c that is where the money was....

greed can be very powerful... and taking from someone else (or attempts at such) can be somewhat direct with bitcoin...

I've not really spent a whole lot of time studying them but what make me suspicious is their timing wasn't far apart and they seemed fairly similar yet they where a long distance apart from each other. That suggests an organisation rather than individuals and they focus on the single aspect of bitcoin that puts it ahead of cash for criminals, no need for any physical exchange. I'd guess the best course of action for anyone receiving threats is to notify law enforcement (or load up on shells) and refuse to pay but if anything is paid then the transaction must be made public so it can be tracked. Things like this will likely only serve to promote coin tracking features which will in turn create black and white bitcoin economies (or increase the utility of more anonymous systems such as darkcoin).

Really though, if someone is holding you... and saying, "your bitcoins or your life", which one would you prefer to keep?

Solutions:

reversibility?

multisig?

tracking? (that's not gonna happen is it?)

Quote from: wiak2 on June 28, 2014, 05:00:13 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 28, 2014, 04:57:07 PM

The price in China suddenly stabilized and was flat for 45 minutes straight, and volume fell to very low levels -- even though trade is usually still strong at this hour. And now trade is picking up again.

How strange. Does anyone know of some phenomenon that lasts almost exactly 45 minutes? Wink

World Cup, Brazil-Chile first half?

Church

working in the military

college class

Quote from: BinaryReign on June 28, 2014, 05:09:08 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 28, 2014, 03:12:18 PM

Really though, if someone is holding you... and saying, "your bitcoins or your life", which one would you prefer to keep?

Solutions:

reversibility?

multisig?

tracking? (that's not gonna happen is it?)

I keep both.. All I do is turn to them and say,

"if you kill me, nobody will have access to my bitcoins. I am worth so much more alive since only I know the password. If you let me go immediately I will consider (a) giving you a few satoshis, (b) not going to the police, pressing charges and having you sent to prison. The longer you delay, the less likely a and b will happen.."

But in reality I will have my bitcoins go to family or friends if I die, and I would never give them any satoshis no matter how quickly they release me, and will do my best to land them in prison no matter what..

Wink

yeah.. it's all good in theory, and if you are getting your ideas from TV.. or Fox news...

Likely if your fingers are being chopped off (or some other means of coercion), the theoretical becomes more real....

Quote from: Kramerc on June 28, 2014, 05:31:45 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 28, 2014, 05:12:45 PM

Quote from: Kramerc on June 28, 2014, 05:00:48 PM

Work extra to buy a bitcoin. Time better spent than monitoring the chinese exchanges. And who knows, one day you might actually be grateful for it.

If you trade with bitcoin, you should watch the Chinese exchanges most of all.

But you don't trade bitcoin, do you?

I would think that it is very difficult to trade with bitcoin if you do NOT have any.

What Jorge does is:

"imagine a bitcoin" then "imagine..." then "imagine...."

Lot's of imagining going on.

Quote from: Patel on June 28, 2014, 05:45:37 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 28, 2014, 05:33:14 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 28, 2014, 03:12:18 PM

if someone is holding you... and saying, "your bitcoins or your life", which one would you prefer to keep?

My solution is XMR. If my balance can not be known, I can give up a throw-away wallet. If the fact that I have a balance can not be known, I will never be targeted for extortion.

+1

Noone being able to know your balance is one of the best features of XMR. The large liquidity available is the second.

People write things down and engage in a variety of practices... Maybe you can hide your total wealth, and maybe NOT?

I am NOT poo-pooing the idea of taking preventative measures. In fact, I applaud the taking of various preventative measures, yet when push comes to shove, we may be in a situation in which you gotta produce something b/c your hostage taker knows too much.. and it may even be related to someone who knows you well leaking information about you (which is a likely scenario.. an ex-wife.. or a nephew or some other ptiot confident)

Quote from: aminorex on June 28, 2014, 06:44:43 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 28, 2014, 06:42:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 28, 2014, 06:38:46 PM

Quote from: wiak2 on June 28, 2014, 05:00:13 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 28, 2014, 04:57:07 PM

The price in China suddenly stabilized and was flat for 45 minutes straight, and volume fell to very low levels -- even though trade is usually still strong at this hour. And now trade is picking up again.

How strange. Does anyone know of some phenomenon that lasts almost exactly 45 minutes? Wink

World Cup, Brazil-Chile first half?

Church
working in the military
college class

Starting soon after midnight, China time? (But 1 pm here in Brazil Wink

)

Typical human copulation? (Probably in both China and Brazil.)

Aminorex: That's pretty good stamina.. must include the wine and the cigarette in your calculation.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 28, 2014, 06:52:31 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 28, 2014, 06:47:49 PM

"imagine a bitcoin" then "imagine..." then "imagine...."
Lot's of imagining going on.

Bitcoin is considered to be a great innovation because it is virtual cash. I am just a step ahead of everybody here: I virtually trade it. Grin

From what I have seen of your various writings over the last several months, I will grant that you seem to have a fairly well developed imagination, relatively speaking. Tongue

Quote from: YogoH on June 28, 2014, 07:10:44 PM

Quote from: gentlemand on June 28, 2014, 06:52:15 PM

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/482951689381904384

Results of our US Marshals bitcoin syndicate:

Bidders - 42
Bids received - 186
BTC quantity bid - 48,013

Winners notifed by USMS on Mon

Wow thats actually really good for just Second Market

Just from this data, we can extrapolate that the average bid through the Second Market syndicate was for about 258 BTC, and that on average each bidder made 4.5 bids. Those results may NOT be too far removed from the behavior of larger fish who were bidding on the whole lots.

Also since the minimum bid was for 2,656 BTC, at most (through the syndicate), Second Market put in 18 bids to the US Marshalls.

Quote from: justusranvier on June 28, 2014, 07:52:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 28, 2014, 06:55:52 PM

I am NOT poo-pooing the idea of taking preventative measures. In fact, I applaud the taking of various preventative measures, yet when push comes to shove, we may be in a situation in which you gotta produce something b/c your hostage taker knows too much.. and it may even be related to someone who knows you well leaking information about you (which is a likely scenario.. an ex-wife.. or a nephew or some other ptiot confident)

The best way to resist extortion is to be incapable of complying.

There are some very useful things that could be done with multisig toward that end.

That's the kind of thing that I am thinking too, regarding the most feasible preventative measure... somehow to make yourself incapable of complying... but still to be able to have access to the funds in the event that you need them.. without having to trust others... A problem with multi-sig would be if you have to trust others or the others could gang up on you and take control over your coins.

Quote from: Blitz on June 28, 2014, 11:59:23 PM

Quote from: KFR on June 28, 2014, 11:43:00 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 28, 2014, 11:33:39 PM

Frankly, it pisses me off. Theymos got how many BTC in donations, and he can't fix such a simple nigh universal complaint?

+1

This complaint and many, many others.

Well, there's new custom forum software coming eventually, and I think theymos just wants to do his best to not have this forum defaced again until then by introducing some security vulnerability. He is a bit on the ultraconservative/cautious side, similar to Bitcoin devs.

If he is so conservative, then why does he have a troll as a mod? Tongue

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on June 29, 2014, 12:25:36 AM

I'm selling everything now and will buy back Monday night. I think that's the only option at this point.

OK... Good luck. Cry

Quote from: anujjain on July 01, 2014, 09:41:59 AM

Quote from: Parazyd on July 01, 2014, 08:52:22 AM

650 :3

How awesome

Good to see people byuing.

It will not stop atleast some days, who lost bid in auction now trying to buy @ this level,
so we can expect 50-70 points rally more.

I'm hoping for floating between $750 and $850 during August time frame,

Quote from: Krabby on July 02, 2014, 04:12:07 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on July 02, 2014, 04:00:30 PM

1W MACD is closing green for the first time since January 29th

Anyone know what price it would take for it to go into the red?

Below around $590-ish

Quote from: Gingermod on July 02, 2014, 04:13:47 PM

Quote from: Krabby on July 02, 2014, 04:12:07 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on July 02, 2014, 04:00:30 PM

1W MACD is closing green for the first time since January 29th

Anyone know what price it would take for it to go into the red?

I think 585-590.

Last week we held green at that level but lost it when we dropped down to 550-570

Last week turned red below about $578-ish, and was green above that point.

Quote from: windjc on July 02, 2014, 07:01:00 PM

Quote from: Buffer Overflow on July 02, 2014, 06:02:18 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on July 02, 2014, 03:45:44 PM

If you want to generate wealth, then you have to either 1) work hard 2) be talented 3) deceive others

4) Let others do the hard work for you.

Wealthy people don't usually get wealthy by working for themselves. They let others do the hard work for them. And no this isn't taking advantage of people, it's called giving someone else a job.

Now I have definitive proof that Mervin is neither wealthy or knowledgeable about how to acquire wealth.

And this fits right in line with one of my life mottos --- "NEVER get advice from someone who does not have the success in life that you want. Don't get diet advice from a fat person, money advice from a broke or middle class person, marriage advice from a relationship therapist that has been divorced multiple time, etc. etc."

There are so many ways to acquire wealth beyond the 3 that Mervin listed. And HARD WORK does NOT equate with wealth. It does sometimes, but often times it does not.

Mervin, you've literally pulled down your pants and exposed yourself. Fraud.

Excellent points here, especially regarding the variety of ways to become wealthy, including living within your means... . Pumpkinhead seems to be lacking - though in several of his previous posts, he has demonstrated such.

Quote from: madmat on July 03, 2014, 02:56:21 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 03, 2014, 02:51:05 PM

Quote from: Krabby on July 03, 2014, 02:49:12 PM

Is there an ETA on COIN?

they are talking 1-3 months

but it could be sooner, it's been in the works for a long time, no one knows when it will pass but its getting there.

I am going to buy bitcoins in approximately 3 weeks. I am waiting the fiat and i hope the price will wait for me. Tongue

I'm in a similar boat - at least in regard to waiting for additional fiat; however, I have quite a bit of fiat "IN" already...

At this time, I am NOT too worried if the BTC rocket takes off without my additional fiat invested therein.

Quote from: zby on July 04, 2014, 08:37:07 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 04, 2014, 08:19:13 AM

Quote from: Newbie1022 on July 04, 2014, 07:54:17 AM

There is no reason for a dump at all -- the news has been wonderful. And yet I have this sick feeling that we are going to have some dramatic movement like a flash crash or some other bull----

I'm still expecting quite a crash as well. People are waiting to go up which isn't happening. Sooner or later they will start selling instead. Then they will panic and think this is as high as we will go and dump it all.
It would suck so bad if we're going to 600 or mid 500's again Sad

As i said before all this good news and nothing happens. Even the media is very positive. Unless Amazon accepts Bitcoin tomorrow it really can't get much better atm. Everything is there to go up. Yet we go down instead. It really looks very bad. Give me a good reason why this suddenly would change? Why would everybody start buying instead?

Next week will be boring. No auction, no big new companies, nothing. If we already go down this week then next week won't be pretty. And when that happens i'm almost sure some fresh new FUD will appear out of nowhere to make sure we crash hard.

The good news will have an effect in a month - now the USD on the exchanges is spent - no more up movements and people want to lock in their profits from the recent rally. It's always the same.

Besides Coinbase: Supposedly, Circle is going to be offering invitations in August, too.... for some of those people who requested....

Quote from: ImI on July 04, 2014, 11:56:36 AM

Quote from: gizmoh on July 04, 2014, 11:51:14 AM

Bye Bye Institutional Money

http://www.coindesk.com/eba-financial-institutions-avoid-bitcoin-pending-regulation/

Will SEC follow EBA and reject Winkle's ETF Roll Eyes

no, the US is much more open-minded when it comes to innovation and new opportunities than europe

Yeah, right.... Cheesy

Is this a joke?

Quote from: ImI on July 04, 2014, 03:32:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 04, 2014, 03:25:56 PM

Quote from: ImI on July 04, 2014, 11:56:36 AM

Quote from: gizmoh on July 04, 2014, 11:51:14 AM

Bye Bye Institutional Money

http://www.coindesk.com/eba-financial-institutions-avoid-bitcoin-pending-regulation/

Will SEC follow EBA and reject Winkle's ETF Roll Eyes

no, the US is much more open-minded when it comes to innovation and new opportunities than europe

Yeah, right.... Cheesy

Is this a joke?

erm....no. the US is two,three steps ahead to europe when it comes to legalisation, regulation and law.

Probably the truth of this statement depends upon the type lf legislation that you are discussing, and the devil is in the details . Surely, also, there are differences between the two; however, such differences should NOT cause one to conclude that the US is some bastion of progressiveness and acceptance. In other words, I believe the circumstances surrounding bitcoin are much too complex to make general statements regarding the US as compared with the EU and to suggest that the US is going to be less hostile to bitcoin.

Quote from: keithers on July 05, 2014, 07:21:19 AM

Quote from: Parazyd on July 05, 2014, 06:50:29 AM

Good morning. I woke up from a dream that we went to $100. Phew, good to see we're still going good.

No way you are really dreaming about btc? Too much crypto for you Tongue

Put down the crypto, sir, and step back slowly.

Quote from: roslinpl on July 05, 2014, 10:40:07 PM

Quote from: okthen on July 05, 2014, 10:20:51 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 05, 2014, 10:10:10 PM

i'd like to see some buys were pretty darn close to the launch pad line.

but who buys bitcoin on a saturday??

Tongue

Hahaha, maybe people who read this forum on a Saturday? Tongue

(But I guess we're all bought in already

)

hehe

I must say I don't remember when I bought some Bitcoins

It is mostly because I am earning them from time to time and I haven't got money to buy and HODL

But I want to buy them everyday

doesn't matter is it Friday, Wednesday or Sunday

That's my thinking too, more or less. I buy when my fiat comes in... usually during the weekdays, but sometimes, it happens on weekends.

Quote from: Krabby on July 06, 2014, 12:45:24 PM

Quote from: YogoH on July 06, 2014, 12:40:39 PM

Will bitcoin be the segway or the telephone?

It's already the segway.

We are too soon in the history of bitcoin to know for sure, but it is likely going to be neither - yet much closer to the telephone than the segway, in my humble opinion... at least, we can make bets in accordance with our inclinations... and I am betting towards considerable expansion taking place in the coming years; however even if such "considerable" expansion does NOT take place, it seems that there are a lot of systems in place and building of in-place systems that will cause considerable abilities to profit in the coming years from bitcion.

Quote from: CoinHamster on July 06, 2014, 03:41:57 PM

4h MACD/RSI is rising
6h MACD/RSI is following
12h MACD/RSI turns upward
1h MACD/RSI stops falling
3 MACD/RSI turned already upward

looks bullish to me Cheesy

1 week MACD turned green about a week and a half ago.

Quote from: BitChick on July 07, 2014, 04:53:42 AM

So BitchicksHusband was in Vegas this weekend (went to the UFC fight with his brother) and his 70 year old aunt (who lives in Vegas and he stayed at her house) asked to buy several thousand in Bitcoin! Then he took her to lunch today at The D and used the Bitcoin ATM there. Strange things are happening I must say. Wink

What happens in Vegas .........

Quote from: BinaryReign on July 12, 2014, 09:56:07 PM

Quote from: jeezy on July 12, 2014, 09:49:15 PM

Quote from: Carra23 on July 12, 2014, 09:39:14 PM

Prices have been boring for a long time now. What am I supposed to do, sit tight prettily? I want to feed on high volatility and troll those who made the wrong calls Grin

Go up a lot, or down. Do something.

You guys realize that a stable coin is good for the cryptoconomy right?

Yes, stable does = good
But
Higher value also = good
So

We need to just go ahead and figure how big bitcoin needs to be and make it that value now so it can stay there and be stable

Grin

That's not going to happen until
BTC reaches a fairly high market cap, something like 100k per coin, and even then there will likely be continued and ongoing increases in value.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 13, 2014, 10:33:36 PM

Quote from: hyphymikey on July 13, 2014, 10:22:42 PM

And to think that you could have went to most of the games with your bitcoin profits.... oh wait

You mean, if I had bought in late November, when I first heard of it? Tongue

I begin buying in late November 2013, and I don't have any problems with where BTC prices are at, currently.

Quote from: Newbie1022 on July 15, 2014, 01:39:02 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 15, 2014, 01:26:29 AM

Quote from: Newbie1022 on July 15, 2014, 01:19:18 AM

Quote from: Newbie1022 on July 15, 2014, 01:18:09 AM

Crashing into the low 500s by this time next week. The pressure seems to be more towards the downside and we all know that there is bad news coming -- Bitfinex isn't prepared for the 21st, Lawsky... even if it turns out to be good news... will be confusing enough to seem like bad news initially, China seems bored, and the degree of market manipulation has seemed to intensify as of late. Sprinkle a little FUD on top of this along with the larger batch of Silk Road coins strung around the market's next like an albatross (and the fact that we had a bump following not even really knowing what the bid price was on the smaller batch bitcoin auction... we just extrapolated out our backsides). Oh yes, and add in the fact that even with great news we can't seem to break towards the upside... if we are going anywhere near term it is down.

By the way, I am generally positive for our long term and even 6 months out prospects. But, next couple weeks look like they'll be tough going.

quality FUD

not bad.

Cool story bro. Hey, I'm not saying it will be the end of days or anything, but I think we are about to get a buying opportunity... it might be the last good one. It's up to you to decide whether the glass is half empty or half full, but we both know in the very short-term (next week or so) downside odds are greater than upside odds. Think about the volume for instance... it says two things -- (1) nobody is all that excited to buy right now; and (2) smarter money is trying to unwind their positions without having everybody race out of the auditorium. Also, think about the good news we've received lately... it has had zero effect. By contrast, even the weak FUD piece by the European Central Bank caused a 4 to 5% drop. Now, we have a market situation with Bitfinex that could go south very quickly and we know the regulators will have harsh sounding cautions that won't amount to anything in practical effect (it'll be a green light... good news... that will sound like a red light).

So, I sold my (pretty modest) stash of 12 coins (I am relatively poor but not terribly so) this morning. I am waiting until sometime mid next week to re-enter. You can cheerlead all you want, but have fun losing money doing that (unless you are just hodling very long-term in which point it is probably irrelevant). Thanks, have a nice day.

Yeah.... ? Good luck with that assessment. I believe that it is too risky to bet one way or another, and to liquidate all bitcoins is probably NOT a very wise idea for anyone who wants to experience a potential upside with BTC. It is very possible, peeps like you are going to miss the train, and that is NOT a matter of cheerleading it is just the past nature of bitcoin to take off upward during times in which people were beginning to lose hope.

Quote from: Richy_T on July 15, 2014, 02:35:22 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 15, 2014, 11:52:48 AM

*Nascent Rpietilla obsession snipped*

The mocked becomes the mocker.

Yes, hehehehe. there is a little irony in this with mmitech attempting to suggest that he has some greater grasp regarding sanity than repietela, when in fact mmitech seems to be quite detached from logical thinking at worst and in capable of expressing himself in a logically coherent manner, at best.

In sum, a goofy situation.

Quote from: Torque on July 16, 2014, 02:51:24 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 16, 2014, 01:59:59 PM

Maybe it's time that we stop being delusional.
For 6 weeks or so everyone expected a huge break out. I think by now it's clear it's simply not gonna happen. At least not now.
Nothing even slightly points that way either. Really, there is no reason i can think of why we suddenly would go to the moon.
I'm a bull and will always be but i'm starting to cringe every time i see people adjusting their charts and lines and chicken bones to show how we will go up in 2 days from now. You just keep changing the dates and lines because nothing happened at the previous date.
I never seen so many people in denial and simply delusional here before.
I think it's better if you start facing the facts.

I agree, and I really think the slow to a crawl during the summer months just proves and underlines the fact that the Bitcoin market is still RULED by:

1. Adolescents that only want to speculate during off-summer periods. During summer it's all vacations, beers, chasing skirt, and happy fun time. I bet if we did an honest poll, we'd find that > 90% of all bitcoin holders are under the age of 25. Also points the the overall maturity level of the existing market (no offense to anyone here).

2. Whales that only want to speculate during off-summer periods. "Sell in May and go away." And without major news on the near term horizon, they know they won't get the run up that they need to make serious money. We need to keep in mind, that these guys get their insider info way ahead of the rest of the market, often months in advance.

Despite all the seemingly BIG news in the bitcoin investor media, this market is still extremely small. Ridiculously so. I mean c'mon, realistically we're still at what, maybe ~1M bitcoin holders worldwide at best? That's both the good news and the bad news, all rolled into one.

ADAM::::: Maybe we need a poll to ask the question of ages of readers of this thread?

What's your age?

Below 18?

18-21?

22-24?

25-29?

30-39?

40-49?

50-69?

Above 70?

Quote from: macsga on July 16, 2014, 03:38:18 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 16, 2014, 03:23:00 PM

Quote from: Torque on July 16, 2014, 02:51:24 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 16, 2014, 01:59:59 PM

Maybe it's time that we stop being delusional.
For 6 weeks or so everyone expected a huge break out. I think by now it's clear it's simply not gonna happen. At least not now.
Nothing even slightly points that way either. Really, there is no reason i can think of why we suddenly would go to the moon.
I'm a bull and will always be but i'm starting to cringe every time i see people adjusting their charts and lines and chicken bones to show how we will go up in 2 days from now. You just keep changing the dates and lines because nothing happened at the previous date.
I never seen so many people in denial and simply delusional here before.
I think it's better if you start facing the facts.

I agree, and I really think the slow to a crawl during the summer months just proves and underlines the fact that the Bitcoin market is still RULED by:

1. Adolescents that only want to speculate during off-summer periods. During summer it's all vacations, beers, chasing skirt, and happy fun time. I bet if we did an honest poll, we'd find that > 90% of all bitcoin holders are under the age of 25. Also points the the overall maturity level of the existing market (no offense to anyone here).

2. Whales that only want to speculate during off-summer periods. "Sell in May and go away." And without major news on the near term horizon, they know they won't get the run up that they need to make serious money. We need to keep in mind, that these guys get their insider info way ahead of the rest of the market, often months in advance.

Despite all the seemingly BIG news in the bitcoin investor media, this market is still extremely small. Ridiculously so. I mean c'mon, realistically we're still at what, maybe ~1M bitcoin holders worldwide at best? That's both the good news and the bad news, all rolled into one.

ADAM::::: Maybe we need a poll to ask the question of ages of readers of this thread?

What's your age?

Below 18?

18-21?

22-24?

25-29?

30-39?

40-49?

50-69?

Above 70?

I'm 12... (mentally)

One beneficial thing about conducting a poll is that no one needs to specifically disclose their age in a manner that is traceable; however, on the other hand, one disadvantage of anonymous polls is that some people may NOT be truthful... Cheesy

In that regard, the results of such a poll would be a rough estimate of the age(s) of those persons who respond to such a poll.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 16, 2014, 04:43:40 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 16, 2014, 03:15:03 PM

Well, maybe [ mini-bubble ] is not the right technical term. I mean the one that started on May/20, at ~450 USD/BTC, and is still going on.

Quote from: dreamspark on July 16, 2014, 03:19:11 PM

Fair enough, my techincal term would be an increase in value but you know, whatever perspective you look at it from Wink

OK, I used 'mini-bubble' because the onset was sudden and the rise was fairly fast (450 to 680, or 1.5x, in 10 days), but not as fast as the 'November bubble' (from 200 to 1200, or 6x, in 28 days).

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 16, 2014, 03:17:18 PM

thats not a bubble, that was the bottom.

The bottom (after the all-time high) was ~350 USD/BTC, on April 11.

Quote from: dreamspark on July 16, 2014, 03:19:11 PM

No, just CNY, BTC and LTC.

CNY? Not CNH? (AFAIK it is the same currency, but called CNH when traded "offshore"; I suppose that there are barriers to limit flow between mainland and Hong Kong, is this so?)

In my thinking your comments are misleading b/c you are projecting the future, as if BTC prices are going to be on a continuous downward projection from December 2013 and thereafter.

None of us know the future of BTC prices, even though we are making bets and predictions accordingly.

You seem to consider your obligation to come into this party with a preconceived agenda in order to attempt to push and/or propagandize in the direction that you want BTC prices to go (which is down, from your preference point). You attempt to mask your bias in terms of reasonableness and objectivity, which confuses and deceives some people into believing you. It is too bad that you believe that you are bringing good to the world through your seemingly disingenuous representations.

Some people label you as a good troll, which I believe is giving you too much credit, as if you may have some good intentions, when in fact your more basic intentions seem to be to spread disinformation and to create FUD and distraction(s), and even if you believe you are bringing good to the world (or even dissuading a few investors from bitcoin), ultimately, likely you are NOT providing much if any service b/c of the fact that you knowingly provide disinformation in your attempt(s) to achieve your objectives and to propagandize with your negative projections regarding bitcoin.

One good thing is that bitcoin seems to have a very decent chance of succeeding for many years, despite your efforts (and the efforts of like-minded people to undermine it). The innovative aspects of bitcoin are out of the bag and have already irreversibly changed the course of history, and more is very likely to come (absent some catastrophic event), either through bitcoin or through some other crypto(s) that will serve very similar purposes as bitcoin...

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 16, 2014, 06:31:14 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 16, 2014, 05:47:41 PM

In my thinking your comments are misleading b/c you are projecting the future, as if BTC prices are going to be on a continuous downward projection from December 2013 and thereafter.

Please point out the comma in those posts that you think can be interpreted as a hint of an insinuation of some innuendo about the future...

I stated several times, and repeat again: I do not see how one could make any fundamented prediction about the price of bitcoin, even in the short term. I would not hazard making any. It may go to 6'000$ next week, or it may go down to 6$.

All one can say is that, if this or that event were to happen, then the price could go signifcantly up or down. But none of the events that we can think of is sufficiently certain to happen, and other events may happen that would have the opposite effect.

Jorge:

I appreciate your response here; nonetheless, I am NOT going to go back through your posts to point out the various flaws and/or assumptions contained therein. Through several months that I have been participating in this thread, I have noticed that a lot of people call you out b/c of the general tendency that you have to be misleading in your posts. And, for example in your earlier post, you described the recent rise from $350 to $650 as if it were a bubble, and such a characterization seems to assume that BTC prices are going down, rather than up.

In this most recent post (above), you seem to be attempting to be more objective and reasonable in your assertion that prices could go either way (up or down); however, in many instances, your posts do NOT tend to be of this same character b/c they tend to contain a considerable amount of spin and a considerable amount of embedded assumptions that strive to lead the reader(s) towards your predetermined conclusion(s) that bitcoin is bound for failure.

Quote from: mmitech on July 17, 2014, 09:44:34 AM

Quote from: macsga on July 17, 2014, 09:43:24 AM

Quote from: molecular on July 17, 2014, 09:21:55 AM

seems this thread is comparatively old:

https://imgur.com/a/WcMIk

... or the participants lied (like I did for the Lulz) Wink

so you are one of the under 18 Cheesy

Possibly an insult to people under 18 if there is some kind of amorphous humor here.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 07:21:33 PM

Quote from: niothor on April 14, 2014, 06:54:53 PM

You're more of a bear than my cute avatar

My bear-masked estimates are

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

For some reason, I missed this post/prediction until it was required by Richy_T.

In sum, the prediction within this post is fucking ridiculous and potentially based on some fantasy land version of the world and bitcoins place in the world.

Largely, my somewhat subtle irritation with the prediction stems from the 99% or more likelihood that Jorge knows better. NOT only is he sloppy with his description of his prediction, his predictive numbers are restarted.

In essence, Jorge's prediction is in lala land bc it seems quite unlikely, less than 30% chance, absent some catastrophic event, that bitcoin prices are going below $500 in the remainder of 2014.

Further, seems that it is more likely than not (more than 50% chance) that BTC prices will go above $750 during the remainder of 2014.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 19, 2014, 06:00:11 AM

Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on July 19, 2014, 05:41:34 AM

if you have a fully verified coin base account that is. SO GET SPENDING. Even if you pay USD go USD to BTC to buy... it's actually cheaper that way.

How do you send USD to Coinbase/exchange/Bitpay/whatever, and what do they send to Dell -- USD, or BTC? If USD, how do they send it?

This appears to be one of those basic retarded questions of yours that could easily be answered by yourself, if you were to buy and use bitcoins then you would possibly realize how to use them. Of course, the customers pay in bitcoin, and then if Dell wants to convert them to fiat after the transaction, they have that fiat conversion option.

Quote from: findftp on July 19, 2014, 09:50:45 AM

Quote from: Chalkbot on July 18, 2014, 05:48:51 PM

.... I just opened one of my forecasting spreadsheets and noted that I'd arbitrarily picked today as the starting point for the next bull run. No I don't have any proof or logic, just me and my obsession with plotting things in spreadsheets.

Well, too bad you lost.
Just for the record, my date is set on august 19th not sooner.
If it doesn't happen before 29th, I sell all my crypto for gold. /s

I don't really find anything wrong with random picking of dates in order to suggest that btc prices are going to skyrocket. Yet, I am more bothered when posters are elated in the event that their date is correct. If they are correct, it becomes a big "so what?" b/c the poster happened to guess correctly.

I anticipate that the rocket date could be anywhere between 1 hour from now to 12 months, and I rest much more assured being in BTC, to be prepared when that seemingly inevitable rocket date comes.

BTW: Good luck being in gold / b/c it is pretty unlikely that gold is going to have any rocket that is anywhere near the potential of the BTC rocket (gold may have a baby rocket and potentially get into orbit while BTC is on its way to the moon and beyond).

Quote from: molecular on July 19, 2014, 04:52:51 PM

Quote from: hdbuck on July 19, 2014, 04:43:04 PM

Quote from: edwardspitz on July 19, 2014, 04:15:13 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 19, 2014, 03:31:53 PM

next week or this weekend we will be testing resistance higher up, a key level to watch/support is 640. it is imperative we POWN the 640 mark with gr8 force. make it happen poeple. I have been / will continue to buy so long as we are below 640. ( i will probably be buying higher too, i can not help it, i must buy, i am very bullish ) buy Buy BUY!

I also think that $640 is key. Going past $640 and we will be halfway to the moon!

i disagree, 666 is the key. Grin

685

$850

Once BTC goes past $850, then we are on our way to a new ATH.. anywhere between $2200 and $5000. I am hoping for the latter or more, but I will also be content with the former.

Quote from: Erdogan on July 19, 2014, 06:06:46 PM

Quote from: techman on July 19, 2014, 05:53:06 PM

When will be 700$ ? Sad

before new year? What do you think?

In stead of asking, form your own opinion, say it here with the reasoning behind it.

Here is an example: Based on the number of people just asking what the price will be and when, knowing that there are different opinions and at best they will get all possible answers, I can say that the prospected rise of bitcoin due to the network effect is severely hyped up, and will lead to not a steady rise but bubbles, burns, crashes, euphoria, suffering, despair. When? At all times.

I agree with you Erdogan that this kind of volatility is likely to continue with BTC when BTC reaches 1 trillion market cap, and it may continue beyond that, when BTC reaches 10 trillion and 100 trillion market cap. Once BTC reaches these higher market caps in the trillions, though, it will be much more difficult to manipulate it.

Quote from: aminorex on July 20, 2014, 12:46:43 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 19, 2014, 04:24:55 PM

Quote from: empowering on July 19, 2014, 12:25:59 PM

The regulations are bad news? I have to disgree....

Well, Erik Vorhees did not like them: http://moneyandstate.com/reflections-right-privacy-response-nydfs-bitcoin-proposal/

And the winklevosses adore them. Vorhees cares about human freedom and dignity, while the winklevosses care about the value of their bitcoin. Thus vorhees is disappointed while the winklevosses are encouraged.

As we all likely realize, bitcoin remains somewhat in the wild, wild west when it comes to government intervention. Accordingly, there are ways to make money and to strive in both the regulated sphere of bitcoin and in the unregulated sphere of bitcoin.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 20, 2014, 02:07:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 20, 2014, 01:57:24 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 19, 2014, 06:00:11 AM

Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on July 19, 2014, 05:41:34 AM

if you have a fully verified coin base account that is. SO GET SPENDING. Even if you pay USD go USD to BTC to buy... it's actually cheaper that way.

How do you send USD to Coinbase/exchange/Bitpay/whatever, and what do they send to Dell -- USD, or BTC? If USD, how do they send it?

This appears to be one of those basic retarded questions of yours that could easily be answered by yourself, if you were to buy and use bitcoins then you would possibly realize how to use them. Of course, the customers pay in bitcoin, and then if Dell wants to convert them to fiat after the transaction, they have that fiat conversion option.

And that is the (non)answer that I get whenever I ask that question in this forum. I had to ask the same person three times (on another thread), before he understood the question (and answered it for only one special case).

I thought that I called the question stupid and I answered it...... and you are implying that you are seeking some kind of deeper and more significant meaning? And what would that deeper and more significant meaning be?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 20, 2014, 02:59:08 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 20, 2014, 02:47:36 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 20, 2014, 02:07:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 20, 2014, 01:57:24 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 19, 2014, 06:00:11 AM

Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on July 19, 2014, 05:41:34 AM

if you have a fully verified coin base account that is. SO GET SPENDING. Even if you pay USD go USD to BTC to buy... it's actually cheaper that way.

How do you send USD to Coinbase/exchange/Bitpay/whatever, and what do they send to Dell -- USD, or BTC? If USD, how do they send it?

This appears to be one of those basic retarded questions of yours that could easily be answered by yourself, if you were to buy and use bitcoins then you would possibly realize how to use them. Of course, the customers pay in bitcoin, and then if Dell wants to convert them to fiat after the transaction, they have that fiat conversion option.

And that is the (non)answer that I get whenever I ask that question in this forum. I had to ask the same person three times (on another thread), before he understood the question (and answered it for only one special case).

I thought that I called the question stupid and I answered it...... and you are implying that you are seeking some kind of deeper and more significant meaning? And what would that deeper and more significant meaning be?

Yes you called the question stupid, and no you did not understand it. If "you pay USD go USD to BTC to buy", as the poster suggested, how do you send USD to Coinbase/exchange/Bitpay/whatever?

I go to Dell's website, and I choose to pay with bitcoins from my blockchain wallet, no? People acquire bitcoins in a variety of ways and then hold them and store them in various ways, and when it comes time to purchase something they send the bitcoins to the purchase address. Then on Dell's end, they choose whether to hold the purchase in bitcoins or to immediately cash them out as fiat (Dell is using coinbase)..

Quote from: ubercool on July 20, 2014, 09:38:50 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 20, 2014, 09:22:59 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 20, 2014, 02:59:08 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 20, 2014, 02:47:36 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 20, 2014, 02:07:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 20, 2014, 01:57:24 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 19, 2014, 06:00:11 AM

Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on July 19, 2014, 05:41:34 AM

if you have a fully verified coin base account that is. SO GET SPENDING. Even if you pay USD go USD to BTC to buy... it's actually cheaper that way.

How do you send USD to Coinbase/exchange/Bitpay/whatever, and what do they send to Dell -- USD, or BTC? If USD, how do they send it?

This appears to be one of those basic retarded questions of yours that could easily be answered by yourself, if you were to buy and use bitcoins then you would possibly realize how to use them. Of course, the customers pay in bitcoin, and then if Dell wants to convert them to fiat after the transaction, they have that fiat conversion option.

And that is the (non)answer that I get whenever I ask that question in this forum. I had to ask the same person three times (on another thread), before he understood the question (and answered it for only one special case).

I thought that I called the question stupid and I answered it...... and you are implying that you are seeking some kind of deeper and more significant meaning? And what would that deeper and more significant meaning be?

Yes you called the question stupid, and no you did not understand it. If "you pay USD go USD to BTC to buy", as the poster suggested, how do you send USD to Coinbase/exchange/Bitpay/whatever?

I go to Dell's website, and I choose to pay with bitcoins from my blockchain wallet, no? People acquire bitcoins in a variety of ways and then hold them and store them in various ways, and when it comes time to purchase something they send the bitcoins to the purchase address. Then on Dell's end, they choose whether to hold the purchase in bitcoins or to immediately cash them out as fiat (Dell is using coinbase)..

Mostly Big merchants use Coinbase because they just sell what they get sell through Bitcoins,
and it doesn't affect them Bitcoin Volatilities.

I doubt that we can make a blanket statement about what merchants are doing regarding their bitcoin purchases. It may be true that a large number of them are immediately converting to fiat; however, they can change that at any point, in the event that they are o.k. with holding BTC.

I think when Overstock chose Coinbase, they made that choice b/c Coinbase was fairly aggressive to assure that Overstock got set up quickly - accordingly, Overstock did NOT shop around regarding which service to use.

Quote from: MICRO on July 20, 2014, 12:31:14 PM

Quote from: ChartBuddy on July 20, 2014, 12:00:12 PM

Explanation

Looks good, price is staying on 600-630 going up and down every day, u can almost know when exactly will go down and then big wall up. I guess perfect scenario for day traders .

As soon as you believe that you have the bots figured out, they mix it up... so trading will likely be a losing proposition for more than 90% of humans.

Quote from: ag@th0s on July 20, 2014, 01:05:27 PM

What if BTC stabilises here?

I'm just getting the feeling recently that all the Bull/Bear nonsense is based on the belief that BTC is a speculative instrument (or still in the speculative phase) and that may not be true.

Take Dell for instance and personalise it for understanding. Michael Dell is already rich beyond the dreams of Croesus - he's not taking BTC because he needs the money/fiat/crypto and he doesn't need to hodl to achieve some future dream of luxury. It's an optional transactional medium for him to continue to accrue wealth - that is all.

As it gets easier to obtain, and easier to disburse the price is going to settle down as a matter of course. BTC has already become a global currency (it happened while we were ~~not~~ sleeping) and after all the excitement about China - and then then the come-down - we're all still holding coin with the most amazing utility.

That's what Big Trade is buying into - the utility, not the speculative opportunity, so I'm not expecting another "launch". I'll be very surprised if we see $1000 again - there's no good reason for it at the transactional level.

There is NOT a large enough market cap to achieve multi-million dollar (or even billion dollar) transactions without causing some volatility; accordingly, the market cap has to increase in order to make bitcoin practical for these purposes. Accordingly, since bitcoins have a limited supply and a limited production rate, the ONLY way to accomplish sufficient meaningful market cap is for BTC prices to go up (probably at least 100 times today's current prices).

In Sum, it is inevitable that BTC prices will go up, if it is going to serve large and/or institutional financial uses.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 21, 2014, 02:49:57 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 20, 2014, 09:22:59 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 20, 2014, 02:59:08 AM

Yes you called the question stupid, and no you did not understand it. If "you pay USD go USD to BTC to buy", as the poster suggested, how do you send USD to Coinbase/exchange/Bitpay/whatever?

I go to Dell's website, and I choose to pay with bitcoins from my blockchain wallet, no?

See why I would rather not buy bitcoin? Exposure to the stuff ruins one's vision so that even the simplest stupid question becomes utterly incomprehensible, even if repeated in boldface -- if the answer turns out to be inconvenient. Wink

Yes, Jorge. Most of us here realize that you are a troll, and that is why you frequently ask such stupid questions and make such unimportant comments.

There is NOTHING inconvenient about the answer to your question, except that you should be able to figure it out yourself if you were more involved in buying and selling bitcoins. Instead, you claim to have NOT purchased any through any service.

There are a variety of ways to acquire bitcoins by wiring money or by handing cash to someone or by mining or by earning them through a service or sales of a product. Once you have the bitcoin(s), then you can use them to acquire Dell products or services (Dell chooses whether or NOT it wants to convert back to fiat and/or when to convert back to fiat, if it is going to convert).

Quote from: aminorex on July 21, 2014, 04:25:56 PM

Volume on down days is getting smaller while volume on up days is getting bigger, relatively speaking, on average.

If this is really true, then to me, that would imply that there are fewer and fewer people willing to sell BTC within this price range.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 21, 2014, 09:12:20 PM

Quote from: empowering on July 21, 2014, 08:12:39 PM

vendors using Bitpay et al are essentially just accepting fiat and perhaphs an unknown % of BTC too (most companies would keep this % to themselves for obvious reasons)

Hm, what would be those reasons? For tax evasion? It would be quite risky, since Bitpay knows how much the vendor received, and even a traditional audit of his books by the IRS could easily reveal the evasion.

By the way, I am aware that this discussion is old and my observations have been made by others before. However, there still seem to be people who expect the price to rise whenever such news come out, or claiming that the route USD-->BTC-->USD-->Goods saves money compared USD-->Goods.

[/quote]

You make a lot of assumptions, and then you continue to argue those assumptions in spite of contrary facts. People can weigh the costs, and determine which route saves more money. Ultimately, BTC is going to be cheaper for transactions as liquidity increases. Dell creates additional liquidity for BTC transactions and potential snowballing of adoption.

Quote from: aminorex on July 22, 2014, 06:45:01 AM

The listing of COIN will be a liquidity event like no other in BTC history. The most extreme bubble in BTC history is the 53x ramp from April to June of 2011. It would be unreasonable not to consider that the impact of COIN might exceed that event, therefore. A 60x ramp would achieve that by a significant margin, without breaking new territory.

Let's suppose that there is a 50% chance of COIN being listed, and an 90% chance of a multi-month topping formation to ensue, and a 10% chance of that formation, conditional upon its formation, breaking a new scale record. I consider all of these estimates to be low-ball. The resulting contribution to the aggregate value of a bitcoin in Q1 2015, over all scenarios, is 920; a 25 bp/diem return means that if all other scenarios were flat zeros, even so your expection is net 9 bp/diem positive carry against current BFX margin rates.

If the stopping time of a 13% margin call at 620 is less that sqrt((920-620)*9/25) ~ 10 times the duration of the scenario (I take at 160 days), then there is a net negative expectation. I will spare you the stopping time calculation (a bunch of stochastic integration very ill-suited to a forum post). It is much less. In other words, I consider provable given a few reasonable and not very limiting scenario assumptions (although not here proven even conditionally) the (perhaps obvious) conclusion that even the most eggregiously optimistic scenario cannot justify the risk of full margined carry, unless you can get substantially better rates (or higher leverage limits) elsewhere.

Holding, on the other hand, is a no-brainer.

Intermediate leverage falls between, and I have yet to calculate the optimum, which depends on better scenario coverage for its confidence margins. It really requires a numerical approximation to do it on a principled basis with reasonable margins, at my level of understanding. I couldn't expect to produce a closed form for the general case in the time one could allow to do a doctoral dissertation, so it's just not practical for me to try.

TL;DR: HODL

Your posts tend to be fairly inspirational regarding the likely bullish direction of BTC prices.

Currently, I hold more than 100BTC, and I have been very tempted to double or triple my BTC holdings; however, I am a little nervous about such a decision.

I have around $400k in tax deferred index fund accounts (stock market, bonds and govt bonds), and it would be possible for me to make a one-time withdrawal of part or all of those funds, without any tax penalty - though it would likely be a taxable event, unless the funds are rolled into another tax-deferred vehicle. I have been considering withdrawing $150k to put towards BTC... but then I would definitely be less diversified in my total investment package, and I would have a larger percentage of my quasi-liquid assets invested in BTC....

I am pretty confident about the direction of BTC going up rather than down, yet I remain a little uneasy about making such a leap with my quasi-liquid assets and to take such a step.

Over the years, my various tax deferred index fund investments have earned an average of a bit over 6% per year, even though they have been doing better in the last few years - especially after recovering from the 30% decline in 2007. For example, these tax deferred index fund investments they earned more than 21% in 2013, and about 6% in the first half of 2014.

Nonetheless, I continue to lose confidence in holding these various quasi-liquid assets in USD, in part b/c I have additional other less liquid assets in USD, as well. Additionally, as many participants in BTC believe that there are a considerable number of impending problems with USD, especially given the intense levels of quantitative easing that had been occurring, since about 2008 and seemingly ongoing.

It seems that if there are future failures with USD, then those USD failures will be inversely related to BTC appreciation in value. In this regard, it seems more likely that BTC values will double or triple (or even appreciate greater 10 to 100x) in the next few years, rather than my index funds, which could double (2x) in 10-15 years, if I am lucky.

I understand that ultimately these remain personal investment choices that each person has to make based on his/her own risk tolerances, assets and investment timeline.

Quote from: kehtolo on July 22, 2014, 07:57:21 AM

Quote from: Searing on July 22, 2014, 05:17:09 AM

Quote from: fff13 on July 22, 2014, 03:47:08 AM

Nice!!!!!!!

We moved up $3.00!!!!

Shocked

what do I know just my pessimistic view over getting beat up on bitcoin by the above family/friends/co-workers etc that I tried to tell about it
last fall.....the consensus in my small world/group has not changed..in fact it seems more hostile...again if I'm right they all missed the boat

Searing

..Had a conversation last weekend with an otherwise very intelligent guy. He also thinks bitcoin is a ponzi and a scam..
We talked about the concept on money and ponzi's.. i didn't convince him of anything.. nor did he convince me of anything.. (his arguments were nothing i haven't heard before anyway)
At least he had heard of it and some opinions on it.. even if i thought they were wrong.

I don't waste time on people like this.. it's not my job to change their minds.. but maybe like you, we can revisit the topic in another 1/2 year.. and might have a different conversation.

Actually, over the 4th of July week, I had various opportunities to talk with a lot of old friends and relatives, and certainly, I brought up bitcoin with a number of them. In fact, a few of these people had heard about bitcoin and seemed fairly well-informed about it (even though their sources seemed to be from mainstream media - which caused them to be much less informed than they thought they were about the topic).

In the end, it was fairly apparent that I was much more informed then each of them, and a few of these people told me that they would look into the matter further. I have considerable doubts regarding whether more than 1 or 2 of them will invest. I suggested that they just set up an account, and buy a small amount... anywhere between .1BTC and 20BTC.

I do enjoy talking with people who are interested in bitcoin, even though in the end, they have to decide for themselves about whether they are going to invest or NOT or whether they are going to research into the matter. I tell them what I am doing regarding my BTC investment (more or less), and I tell them that I have researched into BTC fairly extensively, and I tell them that I am NOT trying to persuade them to invest or to sell them on the idea b/c even though I profit with increased BTC adoption, my profiting from BTC does NOT depend upon whether or NOT they invest. I say that BTC prices are going to be going up, whether they chose to invest or NOT.

I tell these people that I am only giving them a pointer of inside information based on my researching and investment into the matter, and in the future, they will likely thank me, if they act upon my information and chose to invest at this time and then to develop an ongoing research and investment strategy into BTC...or alternatively, just hold the BTC that they buy for a few years. I also indicate that I can be available as a resource, in the event that they have questions or concerns about their research into BTC specifics.

Quote from: fonzie on July 22, 2014, 11:11:50 AM

Quote from: Asrael999 on July 22, 2014, 11:01:47 AM

Quote from: fonzie on July 22, 2014, 11:00:28 AM

Bids on Stamp look healthy. 1000 BTC to 620$ ; 3000 BTC to 610$. Ready to lift off. We also have a very similar fractal compared with the 430$ breakout.

TO THE MOON

is this a Fonzie I see before me?

It´s even worse. I used snakesoil sale tactics to lure in 3 friends of mine to invest altogether 45k$ into the BTC scheme in the the last 2 weeks.
I´m bullish as fuck( and of course ALL IN)!!! Cool

Oh shit, Fonzie is a bull, BTC prices must be going down!!!!!

Quote from: justusranvier on July 17, 2014, 02:00:52 PM

Quote from: kehtolo on July 17, 2014, 12:34:17 PM

Maybe I'm going to look back in one year from now (or even 6 months)

I really like this chart.

I think that the chart depicts historical aspects of BTC prices that constitutes, more or less, a more than 8X increase per year over the almost 4 year period; however, most of that growth occurred in 2011 - accordingly, the growth seems to be skewed towards 2011. In this regard, there seem to exist decreasing intensities in the magnitude of each of the BTC bubbles, and maybe the increased BTC prices have made difficulties in having continued bubbles of 8x or greater?

NONETHELESS, if another major bubble of 8x or more were to occur, then these previous price increases will merely be part of the description of an ongoing pattern.

Personally, I am torn about what to believe, yet I am somewhat skeptical that continued bubbles of 8x or more is sustainable, even though I do believe that it is possible to have a few more 8x or greater bubbles in the coming years.

The chart above shows both bursts and drops, and the price bursts occurred:

early 2011 = 5x

mid 2011 = 41x

late 2011 = 3x

2012 = 3x

early 2013 = 18x

late 2013 = 9x

So far 2014, has been mostly downward, with a bit of gradual upward momentum in the last two months; however, it seems that we are still waiting to see what is going to happen in the remainder of 2014 in order to characterize BTC prices for this year and to prognosticate the direction of BTC.

Surely, it does seem possible that BTC prices will remain more or less flat for the remainder of 2014; however, given the intensity of continued ongoing good news, various multimillion dollar investments into BTC, the appearance that several wall-street interests are looking into BTC investments, government regulations that are tolerable towards ongoing BTC growth, efforts to establish more user-friendly applications, greater BTC adoption and awareness and continued opportunities for liquidity, it is seeming less and less probable that BTC prices can be kept down for the remainder of 2014, absent some catastrophic negative BTC event. Also, it seems that if BTC prices go past $850 or so in the next 6 months, then inevitably, BTC prices are going to spurt into a new ATH, in the range of $2,500 to $5,000.

Quote from: jmw74 on July 22, 2014, 06:57:43 PM

Quote from: molecular on July 22, 2014, 06:53:48 PM

interesting survey being conducted (high sample size, already more than 2000 participants).

example of a result:

(click link for all results)

it seems 2014 is not a good year at all regarding adoption (only 1% heard about bitcoin in 2014).

suprising the price doesn't slide more with ~ $2 million dollars worth of coins being mined each day (and probably quite a large part of them hitting the exchanges)

thoughts?

Where would this survey reach people who'd just heard about bitcoin? Likely not on this forum or reddit.

Also there hasn't been a lot of mainstream media news about bitcoin this year.

This survey has a lot of real good questions, besides the highlighted question.

I agree that the survey is NOT very likely to be representative of general public views, but instead, largely, the views of people who are already invested and knowledgeable about bitcoin.

The results of such a poll would likely be considerably different, if they were able to poll the general public, and many from the general public would probably say, "bitcoin? what the fuck is that?" Cheesy

Quote from: aminorex on July 22, 2014, 06:58:53 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 22, 2014, 05:52:20 PM

I have around $400k in tax deferred index fund accounts (stock market, bonds and govt bonds), and it would be possible for me to make a one-time withdrawal of part or all of those funds, without any tax penalty - though it would likely be a taxable event, unless the funds are rolled into another tax-deferred vehicle.

You need to put your crypto into a Roth vehicle. All gains tax-free. IRA or 401k. I keep mine off-shore because the IRA structure shields the fund from foreign financial account reporting requirements.

I thought that the annual limits were extremely low regarding these tax exempt vehicles, unless maybe they are being rolled over from one tax free vehicle to another? Probably, I should research into this further, and try to figure out the best way to accomplish my goals.

I was also considering international traveling with my BTC stash, and accordingly, I understood that there was a loophole in the USA treatment of gains that are cashed out overseas.

Quote from: Eal F. Skillz on July 23, 2014, 01:01:16 AM

Since when Wall Observer thread became Politics & Society?

Fuck the wild capitalism.

Since forever.

Quote from: BitChick on July 23, 2014, 04:04:36 AM

Quote from: keewee on July 23, 2014, 04:01:31 AM

Quote from: aminorex on July 23, 2014, 03:59:22 AM

Quote from: BitChick on July 23, 2014, 03:44:36 AM

I have offered in the past to add religion to the topics discussed on here but everyone seemed untied against that! Undecided

Jesus is awesome!

Dyslexics of the world, untie!

Best use of "awesome" in a sentence during this millenium.

P.S. I put the "sexy" in dyslexia.

P.P.S. I am completely out of tasteless dyslexia jokes.

lol

Ok. United. Still trying to avoid talking about religion? Wink

I, for one, appreciate your exercising self-restraint.... though you seem to be busting at the seams, here. Cheesy

Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 23, 2014, 04:10:21 AM

Quote from: BitChick on July 23, 2014, 03:44:36 AM

Quote from: Eal F. Skillz on July 23, 2014, 01:01:16 AM

Since when Wall Observer thread became Politics & Society?

Fuck the wild capitalism.

I have offered in the past to add religion to the topics discussed on here but everyone seemed untied against that! Undecided

Jesus is awesome!

I think the last thing this thread needs is more religious nutters like you.

Yeah, instead we need birds with attitudes and dog heads. Cheesy

That's a great improvement, NOT. Tongue

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on July 23, 2014, 08:45:03 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on July 23, 2014, 07:59:42 AM

pfftt...I'm stunned by how many here are still seduced by Aminorex; the Sheldon Cooper of Bitcoin.

I've always seen aminorex as an well-spoken version of JayJuanGee.
Too many words and the lack of solid points.
I think that he is popular here, because his message can mostly be deducted into "Bitcoin is great! Please buy bitcoin...".

But I also think that this is normal in the context of this forum. People here are even taking financial advice from rpietila, who has been involuntarily committed to a mental institution, suffering from a bi-polar disorder, and now he is also constantly bragging about consuming alcohol..

Coming from the Pumpkinhead, I will take that as a compliment!!!! GO Bitcoin!!!!

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on July 23, 2014, 09:06:37 AM

Quote from: windjc on July 23, 2014, 08:57:15 AM

That would be nice. But that's not the way of the world or life on it. Life's not fair and not everyone gets what they deserve.

I'm sorry if you think that life hasn't been fair to you. I see the world in a different spiritual perspective, where our karma reaches beyond our present lives.

Here's your opening, BitChick. Finally, someone, if you count Pumpkinhead as someone, wants to talk about religion.

Quote from: empowering on July 23, 2014, 12:09:24 PM

Quote from: Tzupy on July 23, 2014, 12:07:49 PM

empowering gave me an idea for a new poll question:
How many bitcoins would JorgeStolfi need to have in order to become a bitcoin ~~nutter~~ advocate? Tongue

How many bitcoins would JorgeStolfi need to have in order to become a nutter = 0

There is such a good risk to reward profile with BTC, you have to be a nutter not to own one at least imo, even if you think as Hor-hey does that they are going to zero. Just going on the past few years performance. Logically it makes sense.

Jorge wants to remain "objective;" therefore, he does NOT want any BTC.

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 23, 2014, 06:17:51 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on July 23, 2014, 06:11:21 PM

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on July 23, 2014, 06:06:20 PM

Quote from: ChartBuddy on July 23, 2014, 05:59:06 PM

Are you ready?

Are you implying the bubble starts the 24th?

If yes I might agree LOL Grin

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=706194.0

It's more in fun than anything but I won't deny I'm hoping it's true Cheesy

it might be happening now actually.

The 24th was supposed to be the new ATH (NOT the start of progression towards the new ATH). Accordingly, short of some kind of miracle, we are NOT going to see a new ATH on the 24th... In my humble bumble opinion, it seems nearly impossible to get from here ($622) to a new ATH ($1,200 +) in less than 48 hours.

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on July 23, 2014, 07:07:45 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 23, 2014, 07:04:13 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 23, 2014, 06:17:51 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on July 23, 2014, 06:11:21 PM

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on July 23, 2014, 06:06:20 PM

Quote from: ChartBuddy on July 23, 2014, 05:59:06 PM

Are you ready?

Are you implying the bubble starts the 24th?

If yes I might agree LOL Grin

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=706194.0

It's more in fun than anything but I won't deny I'm hoping it's true Cheesy

it might be happening now actually.

The 24th was supposed to be the new ATH (NOT the start of progression towards the new ATH). Accordingly, short of some kind of miracle, we are NOT going to see a new ATH on the 24th... In my humble bumble opinion, it seems nearly impossible to get from here ($622) to a new ATH ($1,200 +) in less than 48 hours.

Who said that?

I really do NOT buy into these numerology type explanations or suggestions that future ATHs are replicas of past ATHs. Anyhow, my understanding is that the 24th was projected based on the number of days between ATHs... You cannot just make things up, and begin to change the scenario and to say that is when the progression towards the ATH is going to begin.

On the other hand, it makes sense that a new ATH will be delayed, somewhat, based on a variety of negative publicity and just some need to consolidate a little longer b/c BTC is just NOT ready, yet.

Quote from: dani on July 23, 2014, 07:34:52 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 23, 2014, 07:32:29 PM

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on July 23, 2014, 07:07:45 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 23, 2014, 07:04:13 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 23, 2014, 06:17:51 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on July 23, 2014, 06:11:21 PM

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on July 23, 2014, 06:06:20 PM

Quote from: ChartBuddy on July 23, 2014, 05:59:06 PM

Are you ready?

Are you implying the bubble starts the 24th?

If yes I might agree LOL Grin

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=706194.0

It's more in fun than anything but I won't deny I'm hoping it's true Cheesy

it might be happening now actually.

The 24th was supposed to be the new ATH (NOT the start of progression towards the new ATH). Accordingly, short of some kind of miracle, we are NOT going to see a new ATH on the 24th... In my humble bumble opinion, it seems nearly impossible to get from here ($622) to a new ATH ($1,200 +) in less than 48 hours.

Who said that?

I really do NOT buy into these numerology type explanations or suggestions that future ATHs are replicas of past ATHs. Anyhow, my understanding is that the 24th was projected based on the number of days between ATHs... You cannot just make things up, and begin to change the scenario and to say that is when the progression towards the ATH is going to begin.

On the other hand, it makes sense that a new ATH will be delayed, somewhat, based on a variety of negative publicity and just some need to consolidate a little longer b/c BTC is just NOT ready, yet.

isn't that great? More time to gather. Just one more..

That's what I have been doing.. as money comes in, it goes towards BTC.

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 23, 2014, 08:06:53 PM

support looking strong, market is clearly getting ready for something big, but patience is key.

HEHEHEHE.... That is a picture of a cow, NOT a bull.. Cheesy

Quote from: chopstick on July 24, 2014, 02:31:10 AM

The year is 2015. The month is August. Only but a mere 5 months ago, the world witnessed one of the greatest transfers of wealth the world has ever seen. The bitcoin price skyrocketed from 1k to over 100k per bitcoin over the course of 2 weeks. Many pot smoking hippies casually buying weed off the internet were made millionaires overnight. The Winklevoss ETF, as well as sudden bitcoin acceptance announced by large companies such as Amazon, Ebay, Walmart, Exxon-Mobile, BP, Walgreens, Best Buy, and many other companies has been seen as the primary cause of this price rise. Also, Russia has announced that they are making Bitcoin their official reserve currency, and all Russian rubles can be redeemed for bitcoins. The price has settled at around 250k per bitcoin, but rumors that Saudi Arabia is going to drop the dollar and do all oil trading in Bitcoins is threatening to cause even further price increases.

Thousands of people have been able to exit the corporate rat race thanks to their newfound wealth. Bitcoin based businesses are popping up everywhere and stocks of Western Union, Paypal, and Moneygram have dropped in price considerably. It currently costs a thousand dollars to buy a 20TH miner - enough to mine about .0001 bitcoin per day.

It is a glorious time to be a wealthy bitcoiner, but the looming threat of regulations by the USA government to what it sees as a threat to the US Dollar presents an uncertain future.

We need to wait until 8/15 to get started with this?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 24, 2014, 03:51:12 AM

Quote from: shmadz on July 24, 2014, 03:27:12 AM

Don't be fooled by this guy.
This man embodies the worst enemy of bitcoin and our chance at a better future.

Statistics for the 20 pages 7728--7747 (400 posts) of the thread
"Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion"

SUMMARY

           by  qt  op  ap
          --- --- --- ---
   Fonzie   1   0  13   0
   Stolfi  16  27  13   5

LEGEND

  "by.Stolfi" = post by Stolfi, but not about Stolfi.

  "op.Stolfi" = post was ONLY about Stolfi.

  "ap.Stolfi" = post had something about Stolfi but also other matters.

  "qt.Stolfi" = post quoted some Stolfi's text (possibly N levels deep) to discuss
   other matters, but not by Stolfi, about Stolfi, or about Fonzie.

  "about Stolfi" = about Stolfi the person, including insults, taunts, etc.

  "other matters" = any topic other than the persons Stolfi and Fonzie,
   but possibly about the persons of other users
   (aminorex, Mervyn_Pumpkinhead, BitChick, ...).

  Ditto for "by.Fonzie", "op.Fonzie", etc.

RAW DATA

May we deem you "the retarded professor?" Cheesy

You seem to be contributing to your own self-fulfilling prophecy.

Quote from: fonzie on July 24, 2014, 04:43:09 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 24, 2014, 04:02:32 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 24, 2014, 03:59:53 AM

May we deem you "the retarded professor?" Cheesy

You seem to be contributing to your own self-fulfilling prophecy.

Wow, four posts on this page, all four about my person! Sorry, Fonzie... Grin

EDIT: damn, ChartBuddy spoiled it. Four out of six only...

You really deserve the crown for this period. But don´t rest on your laurels, just because you have won one battle.
I´m working hard on my plan to win the war and reclaim ultimate dominance and reign in the ivory tower of the wall observer thread. I will start dropping (lyrical) tactical bombs after the next >10% drop in BTC/USD to create maximum despair and disbelief among the cultists. Consider yourself warned!

I thought that you were a bull yesterday. You have already reverted back to bear? You sure are fickle, but I suppose most trolls are.

Quote from: mmitech on July 24, 2014, 12:37:19 PM

how easy it became to bring the price to its knees, a 1000 BTC dump cause so much attention, there is no more interest in buying Bitcoin .... I have a feeling that the adoption rate is decreasing instead of slowing down or stopping, many people are getting out.

if things keeps this way, I will have to cash out everything in a month or so, better take my profits while I can.

OK... Why NOT now... ? Goodbye and good luck.

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 24, 2014, 12:52:13 PM

Quote from: falllling on July 24, 2014, 12:49:53 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 24, 2014, 12:37:19 PM

how easy it became to bring the price to its knees, a 1000 BTC dump cause so much attention, there is no more interest in buying Bitcoin .... I have a feeling that the adoption rate is decreasing instead of slowing down or stopping, many people are getting out.

if things keeps this way, I will have to cash out everything in a month or so, better take my profits while I can.

agree about adoption rate is decreasing instead of slowing down or stopping, many people are getting out.

Yes you 2 are getting out I guess. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

We would be lucky, in this thread, if we could get rid of these two turds quickly; however, I am afraid that we are NOT going to have such luck. They are going to stick around and continue to talk about getting out, and will NOT leave.

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 24, 2014, 02:26:25 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 24, 2014, 02:25:13 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 24, 2014, 02:23:53 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 24, 2014, 02:20:07 PM

there is a scenario I am considering, the Dell/newegg news was for some people known before it was even announced (for sure), they bought the roumer and waited to sell the news, but the price never reacted as expected so they are sick of waiting ( I would be if I were in their place), I am sure that anyone did that would make money anyways, from 420 to 620 there is $200/BTC to make.

With making money I always think about BTC.
For everything else there is something called FIAT.

not everyone think like you, I think how much Bitcoin could make me in fiat in which I would invest somewhere else...

why hhwy why would you do this? Huh

MmiTech is retarded. He does NOT really have any plan, and he cannot earn interest b/c it is against his religion. Maybe he will invest in litecoin or some other alt coin? But surely, those kinds of investments are more risky than bitcoin, at the moment, unless you happen to be fairly knowledgable about the workings of some alt coin in which you can have confidence. Maybe Mmitech will get lucky, but instead he really has NO plan and he really has NOT been able to articulate a plan.

Quote from: mmitech on July 24, 2014, 02:41:18 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 24, 2014, 02:37:19 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 24, 2014, 02:32:46 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 24, 2014, 02:26:25 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 24, 2014, 02:25:13 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 24, 2014, 02:23:53 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 24, 2014, 02:20:07 PM

there is a scenario I am considering, the Dell/newegg news was for some people known before it was even announced (for sure), they bought the roumer and waited to sell the news, but the price never reacted as expected so they are sick of waiting ( I would be if I were in their place), I am sure that anyone did that would make money anyways, from 420 to 620 there is $200/BTC to make.

With making money I always think about BTC.
For everything else there is something called FIAT.

not everyone think like you, I think how much Bitcoin could make me in fiat in which I would invest somewhere else...

why hhwy why would you do this? Huh

what is wrong with that ?

i remember i cashed out of bitcoin once

looked around for other investments... thought about buying silver, but that shit gata get shipped, i have to ship it back to sell it.... stock market,altho going up ATM, seems DANGEROUS ( maybe more so then BTC! )

then i realized.

i made a mistake.

Cheesy

I just hope that you wont make a mistake again holding too long to Bitcoin, stop the wishful thinking and manage the risks of you investments, anyway, if I ever cash 100% then for sure it is only because I am going to invest in a real-estate.

Well, hurry up and get out!!!!! Why you need to convince us that real estate is better... goodbye.. and goodluck.

Quote from: Bios Optimus on July 24, 2014, 03:18:32 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 24, 2014, 03:05:34 PM

Quote from: Bios Optimus on July 24, 2014, 01:39:17 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 24, 2014, 12:55:36 PM

Quote from: madian on July 24, 2014, 12:12:38 PM

Quote from: BitChick on July 23, 2014, 01:57:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 23, 2014, 09:20:04 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on July 23, 2014, 09:06:37 AM

Quote from: windjc on July 23, 2014, 08:57:15 AM

That would be nice. But that's not the way of the world or life on it. Life's not fair and not everyone gets what they deserve.

I'm sorry if you think that life hasn't been fair to you. I see the world in a different spiritual perspective, where our karma reaches beyond our present lives.

Here's your opening, BitChick. Finally, someone, if you count Pumpkinhead as someone, wants to talk about religion.

I guess I fell asleep too early. Wink

Here is a verse for you all: Ecclesiastes 7:16 Do not be over righteous, neither be over wise-- why destroy yourself? That is something to ponder. I really like that verse. Especially because I grew up in a somewhat legalistic environment and realized early on that perfection is impossible to attain.

Basically, most religions are about karma or doing good to earn something. Fortunately, following Christ is not about that. It is about realizing we can never be righteous on our own and letting Him change us from the inside out.

I will stop now though. Grin

This really saddens me because I thought you were a balanced and open minded individual. Unfortunately, even if you don't belong in the same class of idiots like igorr, mah87 and co., I will have to put you on ignore. There are VERY few things worse in this world than overzealous religious cultists.

Balaced haha. She and her husband are complete wackos.

. "Wackos" Huh

You may not agree with them but they have not said anything that puts them in that category.

I take it you are religious as well?

yeah man, I am a " Jesus Freak", but I think even though I am a Christian you would probably find me otherwise normal. Lol

NO ONE is normal, once you get to know them. Whether they are a "jesus freak" or some other kind of freak.

Quote from: minerpumpkin on July 24, 2014, 03:40:36 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on July 24, 2014, 03:34:42 PM

Quote from: minerpumpkin on July 24, 2014, 03:26:18 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 24, 2014, 03:19:36 PM

there are few sellers, hence the lack of volume.

Currently there's been not much volume (until a few hours ago), but the tale of the decreasing volume is flawed! Take a look at the cumulative volume graph across the exchanges: https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/2y?c=e&t=a&volume_unit=btc (Take a look at the 2y graph!) We're at least at the same levels as last year - if not even higher!

Far too few people seem to realize data.bitcoinity.org exists.

Try increasing the time increments to get a better picture:

https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/2y?c=e&r=month&t=a&volume_unit=btc

Only problem with their charts is the last point on the right side is always a bit distorted because the last interval is incomplete.

How can we spread the news? I keep on hearing about decreasing volume and things having changed in the meantime, yet this indicates otherwise.

I like this chart; however, iT still remains quite funny how China volume seems to drive the BTC price market... even though there maybe been many allegations that a large part of chinese volume is fake.

Quote from: BitChick on July 24, 2014, 03:57:29 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 24, 2014, 03:53:23 PM

Quote from: BitChick on July 24, 2014, 03:51:05 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on July 24, 2014, 03:46:25 PM

Quote from: BitChick on July 24, 2014, 03:43:50 PM

BitchicksHusband might even chime in but he is speaking at a Christian youth camp this week.

We live in a world where people can openly brag about child abuse with no expectation of being called out on it.

Is it abuse to tell kids that they have great value regardless of what others say? The main message of the camp was how to love yourself, love others and love God. That is abuse somehow? But you would probably be totally fine with a bunch of kids smoking something.

so Christians doesn't smoke things ?

We try to stay away from illegal drug use. That was the point I was subtly trying to make there. But, hey, God loves us all just as we are so I would never make a blanket statement that Christians don't smoke as I am sure some do. I am sure many even struggle with drug use as we all struggle with something. Wink

Congrats Bitchick, your wish is coming true! Grin

Quote from: BitChick on July 24, 2014, 04:40:51 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 24, 2014, 04:39:50 PM

Quote from: BitChick on July 24, 2014, 04:35:43 PM

Quote from: Blitz on July 24, 2014, 04:27:35 PM

I do think it's kind of abusive to teach children they or their familiy/friends/acquaintances will suffer an eternity in hellfire unless they follow the one true religion in the one true sect. It's also kind of abusive to teach them that Satan is on this world and responsible for all evil. This will make them more prone to superstition and manipulation and less conducive to reason.

Btw, I won't moderate this thread since it's the "quarantine" section of this forum, plus, adam has the authority to delete anything since it is self-moderated. Just in case anyone is unaware.

I think all religions can take things to the extreme. I have seen manipulation and guilt used so I agree in that. But I do think that our society is "starving" our people by now avoiding teaching religion/Christianity at all. Most people are Biblical illiterate. They think they know what is in there but they never read it for themselves. I think we should all study all religions. We need to be knowledgeable about this instead of blindly just following whatever feels good to us for the moment.

Teaching any child about religion before the age of 16-18 (kind of arbitrary) is indoctrination and as such child abuse. The kid might never be able to recover as even otherwise intelligent people are often religious.

I would love to comment but I have been told to "shut up." Lips sealed

Do you know how hard that is to do? I am a woman. Grin

Who told you to shut up? GOD?

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 24, 2014, 07:19:53 PM

Quote from: Taras on July 24, 2014, 07:18:11 PM

Only a quarter million dollars to go before we cross the last bottom

edit, make that $200,000

ill buy alot more then quarter million dollars if we do.

Cheesy

You have that much mula, Adam?

Quote from: Dotto on July 24, 2014, 08:59:58 PM

Chartbuddy is writing more and more esoteric post with time or is my perception?

The singularity is coming!

Chart buddy is completely objective...NOT!!!

Quote from: madian on July 24, 2014, 09:06:09 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 24, 2014, 03:05:34 PM

Quote from: Bios Optimus on July 24, 2014, 01:39:17 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 24, 2014, 12:55:36 PM

Quote from: madian on July 24, 2014, 12:12:38 PM

Quote from: BitChick on July 23, 2014, 01:57:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 23, 2014, 09:20:04 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on July 23, 2014, 09:06:37 AM

Quote from: windjc on July 23, 2014, 08:57:15 AM

That would be nice. But that's not the way of the world or life on it. Life's not fair and not everyone gets what they deserve.

I'm sorry if you think that life hasn't been fair to you. I see the world in a different spiritual perspective, where our karma reaches beyond our present lives.

Here's your opening, BitChick. Finally, someone, if you count Pumpkinhead as someone, wants to talk about religion.

I guess I fell asleep too early. Wink

Here is a verse for you all: Ecclesiastes 7:16 Do not be over righteous, neither be over wise-- why destroy yourself? That is something to ponder. I really like that verse. Especially because I grew up in a somewhat legalistic environment and realized early on that perfection is impossible to attain.

Basically, most religions are about karma or doing good to earn something. Fortunately, following Christ is not about that. It is about realizing we can never be righteous on our own and letting Him change us from the inside out.

I will stop now though. Grin

This really saddens me because I thought you were a balanced and open minded individual. Unfortunately, even if you don't belong in the same class of idiots like igorr, mah87 and co., I will have to put you on ignore. There are VERY few things worse in this world than overzealous religious cultists.

Balaced haha. She and her husband are complete wackos.

. "Wackos" Huh

You may not agree with them but they have not said anything that puts them in that category.

I take it you are religious as well?

Let us be clear on something. I do not care what religion Bitchick is, for all I know and care she could worship the ancient aliens with her husband. Everybody does whatever he/she wants with the life they have, but the moment you try to impose your beliefs and life style and "Truth" to me then we have a problem. And to start your "religion ignition argument" with "other religions are all about personal gain while only christianity is the cool choice because jesus" just brings back memories of all the bad things that ever happened because of ill understood religion and all the crimes conducted in the name of god. Any god. Shame on me for not noticing that about Bitchick earlier.

And about shroomsy, well, I know he's on many ignore lists but I have always appreciated a person that can believe that he believes in nothing. It's probably the hardest form of religion. Problem is he just conveys it wrong.

Shroomsky is a jerk or a jerkette - even though every once in a while he makes some good point(s) or he is funny, him and his doggie bird - doggie head.

Quote from: gentlemand on July 24, 2014, 10:19:11 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on July 24, 2014, 10:17:57 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 24, 2014, 10:12:11 PM

On second thoughts, maybe that opening did not cause the drop.

Maybe this did:

http://www.coindesk.com/secondmarket-ceo-barry-silbert-resigns/

He's resigning to throw himself fully at BTC. A strange reason to panic.

Also, if you read the article, it appears that Silbert had too many balls in the air... accordingly, he likely needed to drop one of them.

Quote from: Davyd05 on July 24, 2014, 10:36:37 PM

my guess, is these plays are confirming bear whale manipulation. Trying to create panic out of thin air since we've been off the react to China tip for a while now.

Again I feel things like Coinsetter, Circle going live will bring more buyers who just weren't ready to buy, yet! And Barry going full-time exchange operator bodes well for the competitive atmosphere surrounding the race for an industry standard bitcoin exchange.

Coinsetter: I have NOT used Coinsetter, but from the website, it appears as if it is already live. I saw that there was a .25% trading fee, but I could NOT figure out the fee, if any to deposit fiat or to cash out to fiat.

Circle: About two months ago, I requested an invitation, and I have received a couple of acknowledgement e-mails from them. I have NOT received any invitation. I recall seeing a couple of pieces of information about Circle. First, it appears that there has been some use of Circle (but I cannot recall where I saw this information), and I do NOT know who has used Circle to make any transactions. Second, I recall reading some article (also, I cannot recall the article) that Circle would be sending out a large number of invitations in late July or early August. I am still waiting for such invitation, as I already mentioned. Sad

Quote from: Newbie1022 on July 25, 2014, 01:55:21 AM

Quote from: hardhouseinc on July 25, 2014, 01:42:26 AM

So this week.....

AlienWare accepts bitcoin.
Baltic Air accepts bitcoin.
Dell accepts bitcoin.

Bitcoin drops around $30 for NO FUCKING REASON WHAT SO EVER.

Oh yah, there is a reason, all the idiot sheep lemming traders who trade BTC for no other
reason than its trendy.

I keep seeing articles about the biggest threat to bitcoin...

The biggest threat to bitcoin are this idiot sheep lemming traders who run down the price
on their own panics.

The general public is NEVER going to put large amounts of money into bitcoin
when they see articles about bitcoin dropping 10% overnight for no reason other
than the idiot sheep lemming traders panic or some moron hits the wrong button
and sells 2 million in bitcoin by mistake.

The idiots trading just to trade are going to run bitcoin into the ground and drive away
the general public who we need accepting it when they manage to drop the price 10%
overnight and cause panics.

Why you mad, bro? I got burnt this week because I bought back heavier on the good news only to get chopped down to size, but that's what happens in markets. Arguably, the news was priced in. More perniciously, there is market manipulation because this is a market largely unfettered by regulations (something that has tremendous benefits and setbacks). You win some, you lose some. Hopefully we get a kick back in the upward direction and your situation improves. But, you're an adult in an unregulated, wild west market by choice knowing that you are going to have fair weather investors and market manipulators. Think. Plan. Focus long-term (whether that be bullish... yay, you can buy more now... or bearish our of concern about investor irrationality). Play your (long-term) hand.

You go... Newb..... !!!! Tell us how you really feel! Cheesy

Quote from: hardhouseinc on July 25, 2014, 02:18:20 AM

Im just tired of where I see BTC going.
Im selling all my ASICs and exchanging all my BTC locally.
Im calling it a day with BTC, its just not at all what I thought it would be.
Im tired of wasting all day on forums trying to not loose a ton of money being involved with bitcoin.
Too many scams.
Too many pointless panics.
Too many day traders dropping the price for the general public.
I bid this site adios.

Good luck. Could you take mmitech with you? Cheesy

Quote from: Chalkbot on July 25, 2014, 04:28:14 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 25, 2014, 03:00:29 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on July 24, 2014, 10:36:37 PM

my guess, is these plays are confirming bear whale manipulation. Trying to create panic out of thin air since we've been off the react to China tip for a while now.

Again I feel things like Coinsetter, Circle going live will bring more buyers who just weren't ready to buy, yet! And Barry going full-time exchange operator bodes well for the competitive atmosphere surrounding the race for an industry standard bitcoin exchange.

Coinsetter: I have NOT used Coinsetter, but from the website, it appears as if it is already live. I saw that there was a .25% trading fee, but I could NOT figure out the fee, if any to deposit fiat or to cash out to fiat.

Circle: About two months ago, I requested an invitation, and I have received a couple of acknowledgement e-mails from them. I have NOT received any invitation. I recall seeing a couple of pieces of information about Circle. First, it appears that there has been some use of Circle (but I cannot recall where I saw this information), and I do NOT know who has used Circle to make any transactions. Second, I recall reading some article (also, I cannot recall the article) that Circle would be sending out a large number of invitations in late July or early August. I am still waiting for such invitation, as I already mentioned. Sad

I have a Circle account. Got my invite yesterday.

I just checked my back e-mails to verify whether I missed something, and it appears that I have only received two e-mails from Circle. I received one e-mail from Circle on 5/27 acknowledging that they had received my request for an invite, and I received a second e-mail on 6/4 providing me a status update.

Maybe I will get my invite from Circle within the coming days? Or maybe within the coming weeks?

Chalkbot: When did you request your invite? Do you recall? Did you make your request before May 27?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 25, 2014, 07:49:12 AM

Quote from: ShameOnYou on July 25, 2014, 07:14:12 AM

Did you see the other Coindesk news? http://www.coindesk.com/ecuador-bans-bitcoin-legislative-vote/

Quote

The National Assembly of Ecuador has effectively banned bitcoin and decentralized digital currencies while establishing guidelines for the creation of a new, state-run currency.

I know Ecuador isn't a particularly influential place on the rest of the world, but it's not the most bullish news in the world. Yeah, yeah, anti-fragile and all that.

Ecuador may not be a technology hub, but the current government seems to be smarter than average about cyberthings. Ecuador gave asylum to Assange, for example, while many other countries that should have helped him (including Brazil) were still uncertain about their view of Wikileaks.

The policy of Brazil and other LA countries towards bitcoin seems to be "er, we don't understand it well, let's follow the US and hope it works out". And the US is strangely sympathetic to bitcoin, I wonder why. However Brazil, like most countries, has laws that prohibit the use of currencies other than the Real in retail commerce and other contexts. It is likely those countries will some day apply those laws to crypto, too.

Ecuador is just ahead of them in having a plan for a national digital currency. In my understanding, that prmompted them to explicily restate those laws for digital currencies too.

Your post is internally contradictory. In my thinking, it does NOT make sense to say that Ecuador is lock step with the USA, and that they gave asylum to Assange.

Quote from: bangersdad on July 25, 2014, 07:45:08 AM

What a complete jerk Mike Hearn is:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2blmc0/circle_has_still_not_responded_to_peter_todd/

Maybe some of the internal turmoil within the bitcoin foundation contributes to some downward price pressures on bitcoin?

There are real concerns regarding whether aspects of the core development team are too receptive to governmental regulations (and questions about allow back door access to govt and that is why the USA is NOT hostile to BTC).

There are also real concerns that the wealth of the bitcoin foundation ($5million in assets), which really is NOT very much, is insufficiently contributing to bitcoin developments.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 25, 2014, 07:58:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 25, 2014, 07:56:01 AM

Your post is internally contradictory. In my thinking, it does NOT make sense to say that Ecuador is lock step with the USA, and that they gave asylum to Assange.

Sorry if it sounded that way. I meant other LA countries except Ecuador are just "let's wait and see what the US does".

O.k. Thanks for that clarification. I may have misread or misunderstood your post.

NONETHELESS, I remain of the sense that we cannot be throwing out blanket statements to suggest that Ecuador is "ahead" of the rest.

In the coming years, there is probably going to be a lot of conflicting approaches regarding the role, if any, for crypto-currencies.

Quote from: mmitech on July 25, 2014, 10:50:15 AM

Quote from: rpietila on July 25, 2014, 05:31:58 AM

Quote from: minerpumpkin on July 24, 2014, 12:12:26 PM

What if it breaks? Huh

What are the generally accepted long term channels at the moment?

It is generally accepted that you should never sell your bitcoins for anything less than a price, which is multiple times of the ATH of the prior boom.

- If Bitcoin is in its growth channel, and you panic sell in the bottom, it will cost you most of your bitcoins when you panic buy at 5-20x higher after realizing you were wrong. (If you panic buy threshold is lower, you end up always buying high and selling low, and diluting your holdings.)

- If it it destroyed, you have no way knowing it and being able to salvage the high point of your value. Salvaging a low point, is meaningless when the same outcome in fiat terms can be achieved by selling a few %-points more in the previous boom.

this community lives in dreams just because of people full of shit like you, of course you sold most of your Bitcoins to buy a "castle" and fill your account but you tell others to don't, what a dick head.

I had NOT really known about Risto's thread that is somewhat parallel to this thread for fewer trolls... and it may be possible that Risto may be a bit too harsh in his deleting of posts or banning of members from his thread... maybe I will monitor that thread for a while... . Also, in the past, and thru this thread, I have directed some negative comments about Risto, but they were NOT meant as ad hominem attacks, but instead criticisms of his behavior. In this regard, Risto may be a bit pompous from time to time, but he seems far from the ridiculous internally contradictory level of mmitech.

Quote from: bananaControl on July 25, 2014, 01:19:57 PM

Quote from: EvilPanda on July 25, 2014, 01:15:57 PM

Quote from: spooderman on July 25, 2014, 01:03:23 PM

Gd morning bitcoiners

And fuck you ecuador. You seemed so progressive re drugs, and now this?

They banned crypto because they want to make their own, which means they know its potential.

It actually just means that they know it has some potential, but can't fully grasp the entire disruptiveness of the beast. If they actually did, they would know that they are now just pissing their own pants to keep warm.

They would do much better for themselves if they were to buy a shitload of BTC, and then announce BTC as the ecuadorian reserve currency...

Quote from: empowering on July 25, 2014, 06:30:11 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 25, 2014, 06:08:55 PM

Quote from: madian on July 25, 2014, 05:59:28 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 25, 2014, 10:50:15 AM

Quote from: rpietila on July 25, 2014, 05:31:58 AM

Quote from: minerpumpkin on July 24, 2014, 12:12:26 PM

What if it breaks? Huh

What are the generally accepted long term channels at the moment?

It is generally accepted that you should never sell your bitcoins for anything less than a price, which is multiple times of the ATH of the prior boom.

- If Bitcoin is in its growth channel, and you panic sell in the bottom, it will cost you most of your bitcoins when you panic buy at 5-20x higher after realizing you were wrong. (If you panic buy threshold is lower, you end up always buying high and selling low, and diluting your holdings.)

- If it it destroyed, you have no way knowing it and being able to salvage the high point of your value. Salvaging a low point, is meaningless when the same outcome in fiat terms can be achieved by selling a few %-points more in the previous boom.

this community lives in dreams just because of people full of shit like you, of course you sold most of your Bitcoins to buy a "castle" and fill your account but you tell others to don't, what a dick head.

What the hell happened to you too? You used to have spot on predictions and gut feelings and I enjoyed reading most of your comments. Now you're just following risto to discredit him any occasion you get. I get it, you strongly dislike the man, and I'm not fond of him either but now you sound like the dark crypto offspring of Bitchick and Stolfi. One wants to save me from my sins, the other wants to save the world from itself. You wanna save people from... idiots with bitcoin bought castles?

I just had enough of the stupidity of some and the malicious and scammish behavior of others (there is plenty of them here around), and I see that most of people here don't agree with me, they get even offended because I crash their dreams sometimes,

so this will be my last comment in this forum, enjoy all of you

Bye.

Hopefully it is true this time. This guy was becoming more annoying than the worst of trolls.... with his ongoing disinformation, self-aggrandizements and internal contradictions.

Quote from: Dump3er on July 25, 2014, 07:22:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 25, 2014, 07:11:33 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 25, 2014, 10:50:15 AM

Quote from: rpietila on July 25, 2014, 05:31:58 AM

Quote from: minerpumpkin on July 24, 2014, 12:12:26 PM

What if it breaks? Huh

What are the generally accepted long term channels at the moment?

It is generally accepted that you should never sell your bitcoins for anything less than a price, which is multiple times of the ATH of the prior boom.

- If Bitcoin is in its growth channel, and you panic sell in the bottom, it will cost you most of your bitcoins when you panic buy at 5-20x higher after realizing you were wrong. (If you panic buy threshold is lower, you end up always buying high and selling low, and diluting your holdings.)

- If it it destroyed, you have no way knowing it and being able to salvage the high point of your value. Salvaging a low point, is meaningless when the same outcome in fiat terms can be achieved by selling a few %-points more in the previous boom.

this community lives in dreams just because of people full of shit like you, of course you sold most of your Bitcoins to buy a "castle" and fill your account but you tell others to don't, what a dick head.

I had NOT really known about Risto's thread that is somewhat parallel to this thread for fewer trolls... and it may be possible that Risto may be a bit too harsh in his deleting of posts or banning of members from his thread... maybe I will monitor that thread for a while... . Also, in the past, and thru this thread, I have directed some negative comments about Risto, but they were NOT meant as ad hominem attacks, but instead criticisms of his behavior. In this regard, Risto may be a bit pompous from time to time, but he seems far from the ridiculous internally contradictory level of mmitech.

True. But I would wager fonzietila wouldn't have no problem suggesting you to buy, while he's dumping hard. First his money, after this his acknowledgement, than voidness.

I don't share your level of scepticism about Risto... and really, you should refer to him by his name or some understandable version of it. Fonzie is a different character from Rptiela. It is logically incoherent for you to combine personas in this forum in order to attempt to make some kind of derogatory point about the motives of one or more of them. But, maybe no one here should take you seriously, anyhow, b/c it seems unlikely that you are here to contribute value.

Quote from: BinaryReign on July 25, 2014, 07:41:37 PM

Quote from: Taras on July 25, 2014, 07:38:21 PM

Quote from: Taras on July 25, 2014, 07:25:07 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 25, 2014, 07:23:24 PM

Quote from: Taras on July 25, 2014, 07:22:10 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 25, 2014, 07:13:10 PM

Quote from: empowering on July 25, 2014, 07:09:11 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 25, 2014, 06:53:40 PM

I'm just trying to bring some joy to this thread. I only see crying adults making a fight about nothing.
Luckily some people understand the humor and respond with Ron Paul.
Please ignore me when you don't like to laugh

I am 100% with this guy Grin

Good, and now everybody delete your posts so that we can stay comfortably long at this important page

This won't last much longer... We must prepare for the journey to page 8000!

Stop wasting the pages! We're at 7778 before you know it!

Don't worry! Page 8000 will be even better! Only one more post to go on page 7777, I wonder what it will be.
Goodbye, sanctuary of four sevens.
Shit, everyone's deleting their posts. I guess we'll be here a while.
edit 2, oh god so much deletion. All the page 7777 posts are falling to 7776.
edit 3, shit, this post is on top of the page now. fuck.
edit 4, welp we're on page 7776 now. fuck me and this post.

Aaaaand, we're back on the fun page! Grin

edit, uhoh we're almost on top of the page again.
edit 2 when i hit submit this is now the top of 7777 fuck
edit 3 SHIT we're on 7776 again SOMEONE MAKE A POST

We got some 7777 haters here it seems lmao

It is like the price rise of bitcoin. Inevitably page 7777 is going to come in spite of the multiple post deletions... sooner or later you run out of posts to delete, and you cannot convince others to delete their posts... ... so who gives a fuck if there are multiple post deletions b/c the momentum is against you and the trend is up...

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 25, 2014, 08:03:21 PM

Quote from: BinaryReign on July 25, 2014, 07:41:37 PM

Quote from: Taras on July 25, 2014, 07:38:21 PM

Quote from: Taras on July 25, 2014, 07:25:07 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 25, 2014, 07:23:24 PM

Quote from: Taras on July 25, 2014, 07:22:10 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 25, 2014, 07:13:10 PM

Quote from: empowering on July 25, 2014, 07:09:11 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 25, 2014, 06:53:40 PM

I'm just trying to bring some joy to this thread. I only see crying adults making a fight about nothing.
Luckily some people understand the humor and respond with Ron Paul.
Please ignore me when you don't like to laugh

I am 100% with this guy Grin

Good, and now everybody delete your posts so that we can stay comfortably long at this important page

This won't last much longer... We must prepare for the journey to page 8000!

Stop wasting the pages! We're at 7778 before you know it!

Don't worry! Page 8000 will be even better! Only one more post to go on page 7777, I wonder what it will be.
Goodbye, sanctuary of four sevens.
Shit, everyone's deleting their posts. I guess we'll be here a while.
edit 2, oh god so much deletion. All the page 7777 posts are falling to 7776.
edit 3, shit, this post is on top of the page now. fuck.
edit 4, welp we're on page 7776 now. fuck me and this post.

Aaaaand, we're back on the fun page! Grin

edit, uhoh we're almost on top of the page again.
edit 2 when i hit submit this is now the top of 7777 fuck
edit 3 SHIT we're on 7776 again SOMEONE MAKE A POST

We got some 7777 haters here it seems lmao

It is like the price rise of bitcoin. Inevitably page 7777 is going to come in spite of the multiple post deletions... sooner or later you run out of posts to delete, and you cannot convince others to delete their posts... ... so who gives a fuck if there are multiple post deletions b/c the momentum is against you and the trend is up...

7777 is inevitable, so stop fighting the inevitability of 7777 you post deleting whales. Cheesy

Quote from: Dump3er on July 25, 2014, 08:11:32 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 25, 2014, 07:58:26 PM

Quote from: Dump3er on July 25, 2014, 07:22:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 25, 2014, 07:11:33 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 25, 2014, 10:50:15 AM

Quote from: rpietila on July 25, 2014, 05:31:58 AM

Quote from: minerpumpkin on July 24, 2014, 12:12:26 PM

What if it breaks? Huh

What are the generally accepted long term channels at the moment?

It is generally accepted that you should never sell your bitcoins for anything less than a price, which is multiple times of the ATH of the prior boom.

- If Bitcoin is in its growth channel, and you panic sell in the bottom, it will cost you most of your bitcoins when you panic buy at 5-20x higher after realizing you were wrong. (If you panic buy threshold is lower, you end up always buying high and selling low, and diluting your holdings.)

- If it it destroyed, you have no way knowing it and being able to salvage the high point of your value. Salvaging a low point, is meaningless when the same outcome in fiat terms can be achieved by selling a few %-points more in the previous boom.

this community lives in dreams just because of people full of shit like you, of course you sold most of your Bitcoins to buy a "castle" and fill your account but you tell others to don't, what a dick head.

I had NOT really known about Risto's thread that is somewhat parallel to this thread for fewer trolls... and it may be possible that Risto may be a bit too harsh in his deleting of posts or banning of members from his thread... maybe I will monitor that thread for a while... . Also, in the past, and thru this thread, I have directed some negative comments about Risto, but they were NOT meant as ad hominem attacks, but instead criticisms of his behavior. In this regard, Risto may be a bit pompous from time to time, but he seems far from the ridiculous internally contradictory level of mmitech.

True. But I would wager fonzietila wouldn't have no problem suggesting you to buy, while he's dumping hard. First his money, after this his acknowledgement, than voidness.

I don't share your level of scepticism about Risto... and really, you should refer to him by his name or some understandable version of it. Fonzie is a different character from Rptiela. It is logically incoherent for you to combine personas in this forum in order to attempt to make some kind of derogatory point about the motives of one or more of them. But, maybe no one here should take you seriously, anyhow, b/c it seems unlikely that you are here to contribute value.

Value is so relative.

But we could agree, that independent from any sceptism about the Finnish Yuppie, that he is not nearly emotionally maladjusted as mmitech, and by light years smarter.

Even though I do NOT really know mmitech, I generally agree with your characterization about his being emotionally maladjusted and out of touch with his dumbness based on several of his posts in about the last two months... mmitech seems to have real issues, and seems also to be a little retarded - NOT trying to pick on retards, b/c a person can be retarded and accept that he does NOT know things about the world, but mmitech, has some kind of sense of self-righteous knowledge, and accordingly that makes him especially annoying and dangerous to himself and/or others.

At least Risto is capable of articulate and logically coherent presentations, and will admit that he is wrong from time to time (maybe NOT always, but from time to time).

Quote from: minerpumpkin on July 25, 2014, 08:12:25 PM

So this thread has become a battle of trying to achieve 7777 pages and - on the other side - trying to prevent exactly that from happening? Cheesy

Always interesting around here... *grabsPopcorn*

I am fairly certain that several of these post dumpers are having a good ole time deleting posts, and they think that it is all good fun; however, later they are likely going to regret that they may have deleted some decent content and also lowered their post count. They seem to be interested in the short-term fun of it rather than thinking long term ......

In other words: HODL!!!!!! HODL!!!!!! HODL!!!!!!

Quote from: Dump3er on July 25, 2014, 08:23:16 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 25, 2014, 08:12:07 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 25, 2014, 08:03:21 PM

Quote from: BinaryReign on July 25, 2014, 07:41:37 PM

Quote from: Taras on July 25, 2014, 07:38:21 PM

Quote from: Taras on July 25, 2014, 07:25:07 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 25, 2014, 07:23:24 PM

Quote from: Taras on July 25, 2014, 07:22:10 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 25, 2014, 07:13:10 PM

Quote from: empowering on July 25, 2014, 07:09:11 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 25, 2014, 06:53:40 PM

I'm just trying to bring some joy to this thread. I only see crying adults making a fight about nothing.
Luckily some people understand the humor and respond with Ron Paul.
Please ignore me when you don't like to laugh

I am 100% with this guy Grin

Good, and now everybody delete your posts so that we can stay comfortably long at this important page

This won't last much longer... We must prepare for the journey to page 8000!

Stop wasting the pages! We're at 7778 before you know it!

Don't worry! Page 8000 will be even better! Only one more post to go on page 7777, I wonder what it will be.
Goodbye, sanctuary of four sevens.
Shit, everyone's deleting their posts. I guess we'll be here a while.
edit 2, oh god so much deletion. All the page 7777 posts are falling to 7776.
edit 3, shit, this post is on top of the page now. fuck.
edit 4, welp we're on page 7776 now. fuck me and this post.

Aaaaand, we're back on the fun page! Grin

edit, uhoh we're almost on top of the page again.
edit 2 when i hit submit this is now the top of 7777 fuck
edit 3 SHIT we're on 7776 again SOMEONE MAKE A POST

We got some 7777 haters here it seems lmao

It is like the price rise of bitcoin. Inevitably page 7777 is going to come in spite of the multiple post deletions... sooner or later you run out of posts to delete, and you cannot convince others to delete their posts... ... so who gives a fuck if there are multiple post deletions b/c the momentum is against you and the trend is up...

7777 is inevitable, so stop fighting the inevitability of 7777 you post deleting whales. Cheesy

THIS IS CRASHING DUDE!!! BETTER DELETE YOUR POSTINGS NOW!!!

It's Wave A of nonsense.

There are some posters like me, who could bring down this thread by 100 pages or more (by deleting most of my posts)... but I am NOT going to for some short-term humor b/c that would be stupid and a disservice to this thread and to the forum.

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 25, 2014, 08:34:24 PM

At least the teenagers are deleting their posts... No hard feelings against teenagers b/c some teenagers are certainly much more mature than these post deleters.

Also, there is NO need to be sad b/c there are only so many immature thread participants (or posters who are superstitious about numerology), so even if it takes a week for the thread to return to 7777, its going to get there and go beyond.

Quote from: 600watt on July 25, 2014, 08:43:05 PM

wtf - Crash is really happening ?!

at what level will you start deleting it all?

can it really go to zero ? ? where is the bottom ?

I really doubt that there are enough stupid-ass deleters to bring the page count of this thread below 7,000. I would be really surprised if there were that many immature and self-ish retards participating in this thread.

Quote from: amit123 on July 25, 2014, 08:55:46 PM

This is turning to something else now..! Sticking to topic would be nice.
although not much is happening in market.

Ur correct. There's not much to discuss; even though I am somewhat anxious to receive a Circle invitation. I'm still waiting since May 27, and no invitation, yet.

Quote from: Dump3er on July 25, 2014, 10:18:30 PM

Quote from: hyphymikey on July 25, 2014, 10:13:43 PM

I bet whoever has been cashing out the past couple of days is deleting all their posts. This has happened many times, but the fact that we were at 7777 made it more noticeable. I know if I just cashed out around 5 million I would not have any info on a public forum.

Rofl.

It started as a joke and one deletion, than more deletions followed by TA. But thats a good idea: Now we can build up some conspiracy on it.

Yeah Dump3er... you are one of the retarded ones, here; however, you do NOT have much leverage.. maybe 20 posts in total... NOW you gotta start over... so hopefully you had fun with your teenage games. Cheesy

Quote from: Erdogan on July 25, 2014, 10:55:21 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 25, 2014, 10:53:19 PM

Quote from: Dotto on July 25, 2014, 09:55:17 PM

Mmitech keep hodling more than 2000 posts, he is a f*cking whale, if he dumps we are lost.

He´s not the dumptard... how could else be? Fonzie? Strolfi?

Not me!

At least you have the pages!

Stolfi could do some real damage to this thread by deleting posts; however, I am afraid that he cares too much about the preservation of his record. Stolfi may have some less than positive attributes; however, post deletion does NOT seem to be one of them. Cheesy

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 26, 2014, 03:06:27 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 26, 2014, 02:57:35 AM

you won't buy bitcoin but you'll buy government issued Ecuadorcoin wouldn't you Jorge...

As I said, I will use bitcoin if I find that it is better (considering cost, speed, convenience, safety, etc.) for payments than other alternatives. Ditto for an eventual "Brazilcoin" or any other method that may come up.

All things considered, bitcoin does not pass that test for me.

Sounds like Jorge is warming up a little to BTC... NOT a lot, but a little. Cheesy

Quote from: Davyd05 on July 26, 2014, 06:22:14 AM

Quote from: kireinaha on July 26, 2014, 06:11:36 AM

Quote from: keithers on July 26, 2014, 06:05:15 AM

Quote from: podyx on July 26, 2014, 04:18:56 AM

Starting to look like 2014 will be the worst year for bitcoin ever...

Walls are getting pulled
from 2.5k coins to 590 to 200 coins...

Even if we stay at current levels for the rest of the year, it wouldn't be the worst year ever

bitcoin has never concluded a 12 month period at a lower price. if we reach Novemeber and are still at this price level, even I'm giving up on it. because it would be clear at that point that it's over: world changing innovations don't just stall for a year for no clear reason.

All I've got to say is lol

I don't understand why poster will sometimes get so caught up with strict formulaic numerology.. something like 12 month period or calendar year... .. who gives a fuck about these trivialities? It is NOT the end of bitcoin and it is NOT the end of upward BTC price potentials. Even if the BTC rocket is delayed a little bit and it does NOT shoot up 10x, that does NOT mean that bitcoin is failing.. Maybe we will NOT reach a new ATH until late 2015... that is o.k too.... but it seems doubtful that the BTC price rocket is going to be so delayed..

Quote from: falllling on July 26, 2014, 06:26:05 AM

Quote from: kireinaha on July 26, 2014, 06:11:36 AM

Quote from: keithers on July 26, 2014, 06:05:15 AM

Quote from: podyx on July 26, 2014, 04:18:56 AM

Starting to look like 2014 will be the worst year for bitcoin ever...

Walls are getting pulled
from 2.5k coins to 590 to 200 coins...

Even if we stay at current levels for the rest of the year, it wouldn't be the worst year ever

bitcoin has never concluded a 12 month period at a lower price. if we reach Novemeber and are still at this price level, even I'm giving up on it. because it would be clear at that point that it's over: world changing innovations don't just stall for a year for no clear reason.

i consider bitcoin a failure when it can't even get past $650
we need orders of magnitude more to be able to be called anything of value in a world where trillions mean nothing anymore.
lets talk about "stability" when/if it gets to $50,000.

Even Fallling is becoming kind of a bull, to be talking about getting to $50k... WOW!!!

Quote from: minerpumpkin on July 26, 2014, 11:11:51 AM

Quote from: empowering on July 26, 2014, 11:00:49 AM

Quote from: minerpumpkin on July 26, 2014, 10:52:01 AM

Quote from: empowering on July 26, 2014, 10:41:19 AM

Ha! Needs to be a pigeon/dog-thing. What is this actually?

I am in shock... this is Eeyore from Winnie the Pooh books ? (maybe showing my age) the meme does not make much sense without the reference

Basically Eeyore is an adorable but manic depressive donkey and one of Winnie the Poohs good friends.

http://youtu.be/ZMDAY8H5yIw

I know who that is, everyone knows Winnie the Pooh! I was talking about ShroomsKit's avatar. Which makes me uneasy every time I see it Cheesy

Shroomsky's avatar is quite hilarious, especially with the personality that goes along with it. Makes it difficult to take seriously Shroomsky and his various ongoing temper tantrums. Cheesy

Quote from: empowering on July 26, 2014, 11:32:34 AM

Quote from: minerpumpkin on July 26, 2014, 11:11:51 AM

Quote from: empowering on July 26, 2014, 11:00:49 AM

Quote from: minerpumpkin on July 26, 2014, 10:52:01 AM

Quote from: empowering on July 26, 2014, 10:41:19 AM

Ha! Needs to be a pigeon/dog-thing. What is this actually?

I am in shock... this is Eeyore from Winnie the Pooh books ? (maybe showing my age) the meme does not make much sense without the reference

Basically Eeyore is an adorable but manic depressive donkey and one of Winnie the Poohs good friends.

http://youtu.be/ZMDAY8H5yIw

I know who that is, everyone knows Winnie the Pooh! I was talking about ShroomsKit's avatar. Which makes me uneasy every time I see it Cheesy

Ahhhhhhh phew... got you... thats what I thought... everyone knows Winne the Pooh!

ha ha yea I am not sure what that is in ShrmsKt avatar! : )

Remember the posting several months ago with the meme of the dog plowing through the office partitions... that was like Shroomsky...

Quote from: findftp on July 26, 2014, 03:58:06 PM

There should be a new poll.
Something like:
At what page count do you think the bubble will start.
7772
7777
8000
8888
And so on.

We should have already learned from yesterday that recently linking BTC prices to this thread's page count only encourages brats like you, and other post dumpers to attempt to manipulate the page count by deleting posts.... Why encourage such childness and irresposibility, especially since we are now getting back into the 7777 territory.. which as I asserted earlier, IS INEVITABLE.

Quote from: Dump3er on July 26, 2014, 09:56:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 26, 2014, 07:54:14 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 26, 2014, 03:58:06 PM

There should be a new poll.
Something like:
At what page count do you think the bubble will start.
7772
7777
8000
8888
And so on.

We should have already learned from yesterday that recently linking BTC prices to this thread's page count only encourages brats like you, and other post dumpers to attempt to manipulate the page count by deleting posts.... Why encourage such childness and irresposibility, especially since we are now getting back into the 7777 territory.. which as I asserted earlier, IS INEVITABLE.

LMAO. You are writing into the Troll Observer. The thread where 1000 of 7700+ pages are fulfilled with rockets. Where people (seriously) mean, if there will be no bubble within a 12 months cycle bitcoin will be broken. Where people (seriously) talking about super-exponential growth, meaning a value about 1,000,000$ in 2014. And where people are taking a page count as serious business (that's you) and so on, so on....

...and you're claiming for adolescence? What a funky guy you are!? Grin

Trolls and tea party advocates seem to possess considerable skills to turn the tables and to accuse their opponents with the exact behavior in which they are engaging. I applaud you for such.

Quote from: Nightowlace on July 26, 2014, 10:01:14 PM

I bought a couple. Also have buys at $589, $585, and $575 if we go below $575 I'll wait for $500 coins. If not I'll be happy to have caught somewhere near bottom.

It seems very possible that BTC prices could break $575 an go as low as $550 without coming anywhere near $500. Going to $500 is the next level of negativity that seems considerably unlikely absent some meaningful negative news.

Quote from: Dump3er on July 26, 2014, 10:08:50 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 26, 2014, 10:07:15 PM

Quote from: Dump3er on July 26, 2014, 09:56:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 26, 2014, 07:54:14 PM

We should have already learned from yesterday that recently linking BTC prices to this thread's page count only encourages brats like you, and other post dumpers to attempt to manipulate the page count by deleting posts.... Why encourage such childness and irresposibility, especially since we are now getting back into the 7777 territory.. which as I asserted earlier, IS INEVITABLE.

LMAO. You are writing into the Troll Observer. The thread where 1000 of 7700+ pages are fulfilled with rockets. Where people (seriously) mean, if there will be no bubble within a 12 months cycle bitcoin will be broken. Where people (seriously) talking about super-exponential growth, meaning a value about 1,000,000$ in 2014. And where people are taking a page count as serious business (that's you) and so on, so on....

...and you're claiming for adolescence? What a funky guy you are!? Grin

I think you missed the sarcasm, you should know by now.

Maybe, but I'm not so sure, that it was sarcasm Cheesy

GO AHEAD - Dump3er, build up your post count... you are up to 14 now.. so you can dump again.. but you are certainly running out of ammunition, and I would think that your immature post-dumping compatriots are running out of ammunition as well.... ONLY so many posters are going to take such post-dumping measures... and personally, I could care less if this thread reaches 7777 pages by today or a month from now, pages can be dumped for ONLY so long... and the number of pages in this thread has little to NO correlation with bitcoin prices, even though some childish posters decided to attempt to inspire a mutiny of sorts and to consolidate their post dumping powers.

IN other words: CCMF !!!!!!!! 1111

Quote from: Pump3r on July 27, 2014, 01:06:17 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on July 27, 2014, 12:58:43 AM

hello 600

such a familiar face

Looks like fiat was taken from 590 support to buy up.

How many user names do you have? Fuck!

Quote from: findftp on July 26, 2014, 10:49:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 26, 2014, 10:45:51 PM

Quote from: Dump3er on July 26, 2014, 10:08:50 PM

Quote from: findftp on July 26, 2014, 10:07:15 PM

Quote from: Dump3er on July 26, 2014, 09:56:06 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 26, 2014, 07:54:14 PM

We should have already learned from yesterday that recently linking BTC prices to this thread's page count only encourages brats like you, and other post dumpers to attempt to manipulate the page count by deleting posts.... Why encourage such childness and irresposibility, especially since we are now getting back into the 7777 territory.. which as I asserted earlier, IS INEVITABLE.

LMAO. You are writing into the Troll Observer. The thread where 1000 of 7700+ pages are fulfilled with rockets. Where people (seriously) mean, if there will be no bubble within a 12 months cycle bitcoin will be broken. Where people (seriously) talking about super-exponential growth, meaning a value about 1,000,000$ in 2014. And where people are taking a page count as serious business (that's you) and so on, so on....

...and you're claiming for adolescence? What a funky guy you are!? Grin

I think you missed the sarcasm, you should know by now.

Maybe, but I'm not so sure, that it was sarcasm Cheesy

GO AHEAD - Dump3er, build up your post count... you are up to 14 now.. so you can dump again.. but you are certainly running out of ammunition, and I would think that your immature post-dumping compatriots are running out of ammunition as well.... ONLY so many posters are going to take such post-dumping measures... and personally, I could care less if this thread reaches 7777 pages by today or a month from now, pages can be dumped for ONLY so long... and the number of pages in this thread has little to NO correlation with bitcoin prices, even though some childish posters decided to attempt to inspire a mutiny of sorts and to consolidate their post dumping powers.

IN other words: CCMF !!!!!!!! 1111

Thanks, now I'm sure, it's sarcasm Grin

Thanks for the laugh

Quote from: Sandia on July 27, 2014, 01:20:41 PM

I obviously like talking to myself, or I am conspiring to get Senior Member status.

Over $700K in USD swaps demanded on Bitfinex on the first page alone. That is 1100 coins, enough to take us to 610 if no one cancels their asks in front of the tidal wave.

You are going to have to UP your post count, if you are aspire towards "Sr" status any time in the near future.

Quote from: mmitech on July 27, 2014, 08:24:25 PM

some guys will be pissed off when looking at this posts, especially the ones that would love me to stop posting and thought I would really stop posting here.

You are a fucking child. You are NOT good for your word b/c yesterday, you stormed off in some huffy puffy, and you said that you were done with posting in this thread.

Surely, it would be nice if you would follow through with that one promise... but you cannot resist and you will not just get the fuck out of here, even though you certainly do NOT contribute. You can take yourself and even take your 2000+ worthless posts. This thread can get back to 7777 without your baloney..... Go invest in litecoin or some other alt coin or real estate or whatever you supposedly are planning to do with what remains of your purported BTC holdings.

Quote from: indiemax on July 27, 2014, 08:30:14 PM

Hey the Chinese love 7's

at this rate they gonna get pissed ban Bitcoin again Grin

cool,all is well Cheesy

The chinese love 8's too.... so I am NOT sure what all of that represents, except numerology baloney.

Quote from: mmitech on July 27, 2014, 08:47:45 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 27, 2014, 08:38:45 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 27, 2014, 08:24:25 PM

some guys will be pissed off when looking at this posts, especially the ones that would love me to stop posting and thought I would really stop posting here.

You are a fucking child. You are NOT good for your word b/c yesterday, you stormed off in some huffy puffy, and you said that you were done with posting in this thread.

Surely, it would be nice if you would follow through with that one promise... but you cannot resist and you will not just get the fuck out of here, even though you certainly do NOT contribute. You can take yourself and even take your 2000+ worthless posts. This thread can get back to 7777 without your baloney..... Go invest in litecoin or some other alt coin or real estate or whatever you supposedly are planning to do with what remains of your purported BTC holdings.

I am here to troll idiots like you...and it seems that you really listen to what I say, look you remembered all my investment and I still cant spell your name or remember why you are on my ignore.

Edit: beside I have allot of time, the weather is bad these days I cant do much outside and I have no job to attend and kids and my wife get tired of me after few hours... so what to do, troll some idiots on Bitcointalk Grin

Edit2: even trading is boring, I miss the 20% +/- days, I made a killing at the time, now every trade is risky, don't make me mention the fees.

Yes, trolling is such an important endeavor - you cannot even remember... Adam may do a service to this thread by exercising his first Ban with you.... though he seems to nice for that... , which is too bad. Cry

Quote from: oda.krell on July 27, 2014, 09:23:13 PM

Really not such a great idea of mmitech to sell his account to a spammer slash imbecile :/

Oh is that what happened? Mmitech was probably desperate for money, since he had sold his bitcoin and invested in stupid shit. And, mmitech was a bit of an imbecile himself (presale, that is)

Quote from: mmitech on July 27, 2014, 09:57:35 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 27, 2014, 09:51:47 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on July 27, 2014, 09:23:13 PM

Really not such a great idea of mmitech to sell his account to a spammer slash imbecile :/

Oh is that what happened? Mmitech was probably desperate for money, since he had sold his bitcoin and invested in stupid shit. And, mmitech was a bit of an imbecile himself (presale, that is)

this is hilarious, I must really got into you...... an imbecile that takes alot of your time and energy and nerves.... must be a good one

BTW I could use a couple hundred thousands more yep Cheesy

That's fine... go ahead and attempt to tell your story once again. You want a couple hundred thousand more? What's your plan? Do you have a plan? Is your plan to troll your way to obtaining more? Or do you have some more meaningful plan?

I find you irritating, but such irritation does NOT have any real or meaningful impact on my emotional well being. I am NOT feeling in any kind of desperation, as you seem to maybe need treatment. I would suggest that you use some of your dough to seek psychological treatment.

Quote from: mmitech on July 27, 2014, 10:13:16 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 27, 2014, 10:04:22 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 27, 2014, 09:57:35 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 27, 2014, 09:51:47 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on July 27, 2014, 09:23:13 PM

Really not such a great idea of mmitech to sell his account to a spammer slash imbecile :/

Oh is that what happened? Mmitech was probably desperate for money, since he had sold his bitcoin and invested in stupid shit. And, mmitech was a bit of an imbecile himself (presale, that is)

this is hilarious, I must really got into you...... an imbecile that takes alot of your time and energy and nerves.... must be a good one

BTW I could use a couple hundred thousands more yep Cheesy

That's fine... go ahead and attempt to tell your story once again. You want a couple hundred thousand more? What's your plan? Do you have a plan? Is your plan to troll your way to obtaining more? Or do you have some more meaningful plan?

I find you irritating, but such irritation does NOT have any real or meaningful impact on my emotional well being. I am NOT feeling in any kind of desperation, as you seem to maybe need treatment. I would suggest that you use some of your dough to seek psychological treatment.

go ahead, so do you think I am mentally retarded ? this makes you more than an idiot, I have never seen anyone being frustrated over a mentally retarded person... usually most people don't get offended or frustrated with mentally retarded people..... but I must be more than that for you, so what is it ? jealousy? because I bought my coins @ $10 and sold half @ $600... I must be really stupid for doing that.

but as long as I remember my prediction is still accurate... so before the price goes above $1200 I would be quiet in your place.

Yes. I have used that term, "mentally retarded" several times to refer to you and to your posts and your ongoing refusal to appreciate your lack of insight into the world. I actually explained that I have a lot of sympathy for the intellectually challenged, and by the way I do NOT claim to be a genius. I also stated that I consider a problem with you is that you go on and on and on about supposedly knowing something of importance and materiality and getting caught on tangents in order to justify your position.

There may be ways that you could correct such impressions, if you were to try to draft more meaningful and substantive posts... or maybe just read and think a little more before posting.

In any event, you are probably correct that I should be more forgiving of what seems to be such short-comings.

IT would be nice if you just went away as you had asserted that you were going to do, yesterday, but certainly, if you do NOT go away, then I can attempt to deal with your posts in my own way(s).

Quote from: mmitech on July 27, 2014, 10:43:45 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 27, 2014, 10:30:51 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 27, 2014, 10:13:16 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 27, 2014, 10:04:22 PM

Quote from: mmitech on July 27, 2014, 09:57:35 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 27, 2014, 09:51:47 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on July 27, 2014, 09:23:13 PM

Really not such a great idea of mmitech to sell his account to a spammer slash imbecile :/

Oh is that what happened? Mmitech was probably desperate for money, since he had sold his bitcoin and invested in stupid shit. And, mmitech was a bit of an imbecile himself (presale, that is)

this is hilarious, I must really got into you...... an imbecile that takes alot of your time and energy and nerves.... must be a good one

BTW I could use a couple hundred thousands more yep Cheesy

That's fine... go ahead and attempt to tell your story once again. You want a couple hundred thousand more? What's your plan? Do you have a plan? Is your plan to troll your way to obtaining more? Or do you have some more meaningful plan?

I find you irritating, but such irritation does NOT have any real or meaningful impact on my emotional well being. I am NOT feeling in any kind of desperation, as you seem to maybe need treatment. I would suggest that you use some of your dough to seek psychological treatment.

go ahead, so do you think I am mentally retarded ? this makes you more than an idiot, I have never seen anyone being frustrated over a mentally retarded person... usually most people don't get offended or frustrated with mentally retarded people..... but I must be more than that for you, so what is it ? jealousy? because I bought my coins @ $10 and sold half @ $600... I must be really stupid for doing that.

but as long as I remember my prediction is still accurate... so before the price goes above $1200 I would be quiet in your place.

Yes. I have used that term, "mentally retarded" several times to refer to you and to your posts and your ongoing refusal to appreciate your lack of insight into the world. I actually explained that I have a lot of sympathy for the intellectually challenged, and by the way I do NOT claim to be a genius. I also stated that I consider a problem with you is that you go on and on and on about supposedly knowing something of importance and materiality and getting caught on tangents in order to justify your position.

There may be ways that you could correct such impressions, if you were to try to draft more meaningful and substantive posts... or maybe just read and think a little more before posting.

In any event, you are probably correct that I should be more forgiving of what seems to be such short-comings.

IT would be nice if you just went away as you had asserted that you were going to do, yesterday, but certainly, if you do NOT go away, then I can attempt to deal with your posts in my own way(s).

wow...the emotions are strong here, I would like to meet you and make you tell me that directly in person.... Cheesy

I would love to look into your eyes and try to understand this hate.... BTW, this is why I wont leave this forum, not because you hate me, but because at one point in the past I was the same like you, I've just knew about Bitcoin, I was passionate, ready for a revolution, and perma-bull but education( knowing more about Bitcoin) changed that side of me.

I will give you some time, if you are a technical guy and if the core Bitcoin protocol is comprehensive to you and philosophy this protocol is built on means anything to you, you will get there one day, Bitcoin (and almost all cryptos today) has so many broken things that may prevent it from going mainstream, many things need to be addressed and I am not going to tell you what, I will let you figure it out your self then remember this conversation and feel shame when you start learning more about Bitcoin.

You prove my point, to some extent, by going on talking as if you know more than others about various subjects based on some potentially unique experiences that you have had and that others were NOT present during that experience to imply that you are more experienced than others.

It is possible that you may be deluding others, besides yourself.

You were NOT once like me, b/c we each come from different perspectives.

Regarding meeting each other, I would NOT want to meet you b/c you appear to be unstable. Generally, I talk with people the same in person as I do over the internet. A major difference is that in person, I would NOT have tolerated such stupidity for so long b/c I would have left the conversation or caused you to exit the conversation - one or the other.

Anyhow, good luck with your supposed secret knowledge about bitcoin that allegedly you are NOT sharing.

Quote from: mmitech on July 27, 2014, 11:33:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 27, 2014, 11:28:13 PM

You prove my point, to some extent, by going on talking as if you know more than others about various subjects based on some potentially unique experiences that you have had and that others were NOT present during that experience to imply that you are more experienced than others.

It is possible that you may be deluding others, besides yourself.

You were NOT once like me, b/c we each come from different perspectives.

Regarding meeting each other, I would NOT want to meet you b/c you appear to be unstable. Generally, I talk with people the same in person as I do over the internet. A major difference is that in person, I would NOT have tolerated such stupidity for so long b/c I would have left the conversation or caused you to exit the conversation - one or the other.

Anyhow, good luck with your supposed secret knowledge about bitcoin that allegedly you are NOT sharing.

you know what, whatever, it is a waste of time...back to my ignore.

Yeah, right!!!!!! Your ignore is like your going away..... We can only wish for such.

Quote from: spooderman on July 27, 2014, 11:52:38 PM

Now that so many pages are disappearing, I think it's a great time to pump rpietilla's alt-observer.

I think it will see +1k in the next few days! This thread is dying!

I wouldn't write off this thread so quickly... The thread could bounce down to 7,000 pages, and in no time be back to 7777 pages.... or we could just hover at 7777 pages for a month, but sooner or later, the thread is going to run out of post deleters.

Quote from: Richy_T on July 28, 2014, 01:18:47 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 25, 2014, 11:44:17 PM

Stolfi could do some real damage to this thread by deleting posts; however, I am afraid that he cares too much about the preservation of his record. Stolfi may have some less than positive attributes; however, post deletion does NOT seem to be one of them. Cheesy

All of Chartbuddy's old posts are useless (and his current ones, many may argue) since I started purging the gifs to save on storage costs. I wonder how many pages those would account for... Too bad I'm in Vacation in the hills of TN right now...

I was of the belief that Chartbuddy's historical posts would be preserved b/c they could provide one objective and quick means to verify what BTC prices were within the stream of posts.

Quote from: cro on July 28, 2014, 01:28:51 AM

Quote from: beetcoin on July 28, 2014, 01:06:37 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 12:27:18 AM

Quote from: cro on July 27, 2014, 11:58:00 PM

I am wondering whether it is time to buy or not. No sleep for me, I guess.

i guess a good night sleep isn't very valuable to you?

most common rookie bitcoiner mistake.

set an order and get some sleep...

yeah, after being sleep deprived and feeling deranged, i don't think you'd be in the best situation to make the right call.

Thanks for your concern. Wink

I would buy some BTC straight away as I was about to for some time if it wasn't for this "will it fall terribly low or go up?" situation, really. I'm not afraid of fluctuations, but when people say the price may fall to 500$ it may be better for me to wait for a while...

This BTC investment matter does NOT need to be all or NOTHING, and really it remains quite risky to attempt to predict the market exactly.

Let's say that you have $1,000 that you want to invest in BTC;however, you are worried about whether the price will go down to $500. Well, why don't you use approximately half of the $1,000 ($500), and buy some BTC now? If the price goes down to $500, then you can use the other $500 or at that point you may have more to invest. or if at that point you believe it is going down some more, then buy another $250 and wait to see if BTC prices go down more.

It is generally less safe to attempt to time the market and attempt to bet all or NOTHING b/c inevitably it remains difficult to predict.

Quote from: spooderman on July 28, 2014, 01:53:35 AM

This thread speculation is fun. It helps to demonstrate how absurd it is to speculate with unreasonable degrees of certainty anyway.

Stupid mods manipulating the thread count.

I expect blitz is trying to send us the message that "no one buys the 'above 7776' lie any more."

I doubt that the deletion of posts is coming from mods... it is coming from individuals (children) who are engaging in a concerted effort of solidarity to keep the post count down. However, they can be successful for only so long... sooner or later, they will have NO more posts to delete, and then the inevitable 7777 comes and is surpassed.

Quote from: twiifm on July 28, 2014, 01:55:04 AM

Quote from: cro on July 28, 2014, 01:49:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 28, 2014, 01:41:42 AM

Quote from: cro on July 28, 2014, 01:28:51 AM

Quote from: beetcoin on July 28, 2014, 01:06:37 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 12:27:18 AM

Quote from: cro on July 27, 2014, 11:58:00 PM

I am wondering whether it is time to buy or not. No sleep for me, I guess.

i guess a good night sleep isn't very valuable to you?

most common rookie bitcoiner mistake.

set an order and get some sleep...

yeah, after being sleep deprived and feeling deranged, i don't think you'd be in the best situation to make the right call.

Thanks for your concern. Wink

I would buy some BTC straight away as I was about to for some time if it wasn't for this "will it fall terribly low or go up?" situation, really. I'm not afraid of fluctuations, but when people say the price may fall to 500$ it may be better for me to wait for a while...

This BTC investment matter does NOT need to be all or NOTHING, and really it remains quite risky to attempt to predict the market exactly.

Let's say that you have $1,000 that you want to invest in BTC;however, you are worried about whether the price will go down to $500. Well, why don't you use approximately half of the $1,000 ($500), and buy some BTC now? If the price goes down to $500, then you can use the other $500 or at that point you may have more to invest. or if at that point you believe it is going down some more, then buy another $250 and wait to see if BTC prices go down more.

It is generally less safe to attempt to time the market and attempt to bet all or NOTHING b/c inevitably it remains difficult to predict.

I just didn't wanted to wake up with knowledge that I could have waited one day and buy for a better price. It's hard to argue with your logic, though. I will follow your advice. Cheers.

He's telling you to catch a falling knife. LOL. Bad advice

I don't think so. If you believe in the fundamentals, then you believe that ultimately the price is going to go up. Each investor has to come to their own conclusions regarding what they believe based on the information that they have at their disposal.. and sometimes there are leaps of faith involved in such beliefs.

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 02:01:55 AM

Quote from: twiifm on July 28, 2014, 01:55:04 AM

Quote from: cro on July 28, 2014, 01:49:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 28, 2014, 01:41:42 AM

Quote from: cro on July 28, 2014, 01:28:51 AM

Quote from: beetcoin on July 28, 2014, 01:06:37 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 12:27:18 AM

Quote from: cro on July 27, 2014, 11:58:00 PM

I am wondering whether it is time to buy or not. No sleep for me, I guess.

i guess a good night sleep isn't very valuable to you?

most common rookie bitcoiner mistake.

set an order and get some sleep...

yeah, after being sleep deprived and feeling deranged, i don't think you'd be in the best situation to make the right call.

Thanks for your concern. Wink

I would buy some BTC straight away as I was about to for some time if it wasn't for this "will it fall terribly low or go up?" situation, really. I'm not afraid of fluctuations, but when people say the price may fall to 500$ it may be better for me to wait for a while...

This BTC investment matter does NOT need to be all or NOTHING, and really it remains quite risky to attempt to predict the market exactly.

Let's say that you have $1,000 that you want to invest in BTC;however, you are worried about whether the price will go down to $500. Well, why don't you use approximately half of the $1,000 ($500), and buy some BTC now? If the price goes down to $500, then you can use the other $500 or at that point you may have more to invest. or if at that point you believe it is going down some more, then buy another $250 and wait to see if BTC prices go down more.

It is generally less safe to attempt to time the market and attempt to bet all or NOTHING b/c inevitably it remains difficult to predict.

I just didn't wanted to wake up with knowledge that I could have waited one day and buy for a better price. It's hard to argue with your logic, though. I will follow your advice. Cheers.

He's telling you to catch a falling knife. LOL. Bad advice

thats not what hes saying

hes saying, realize you are not a god and there for cannot predict price movement, so dont try, just have a plan should it go lower.

Exactamente!!!!! The plan of investing while the price is going down does NOT need to be exactly how I described it b/c I quickly outlined a viable way to think about preparing for downward BTC price manipulations.

For example, I have had about $800 of BTC allocated in fiat for over a month, and I have been just waiting and waiting and waiting for when to buy with that $800. In about a week, I have another $2,000 coming in. That $800 will become $2800. I will probably buy about $1,400 with that, and just wait to see what happens regarding the other $1,400. I hate to run out completely of BTC allocated fiat - just in case the BTC price goes down some more.

Quote from: twiifm on July 28, 2014, 02:06:48 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 02:01:55 AM

Quote from: twiifm on July 28, 2014, 01:55:04 AM

Quote from: cro on July 28, 2014, 01:49:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 28, 2014, 01:41:42 AM

Quote from: cro on July 28, 2014, 01:28:51 AM

Quote from: beetcoin on July 28, 2014, 01:06:37 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 12:27:18 AM

Quote from: cro on July 27, 2014, 11:58:00 PM

I am wondering whether it is time to buy or not. No sleep for me, I guess.

i guess a good night sleep isn't very valuable to you?

most common rookie bitcoiner mistake.

set an order and get some sleep...

yeah, after being sleep deprived and feeling deranged, i don't think you'd be in the best situation to make the right call.

Thanks for your concern. Wink

I would buy some BTC straight away as I was about to for some time if it wasn't for this "will it fall terribly low or go up?" situation, really. I'm not afraid of fluctuations, but when people say the price may fall to 500$ it may be better for me to wait for a while...

This BTC investment matter does NOT need to be all or NOTHING, and really it remains quite risky to attempt to predict the market exactly.

Let's say that you have $1,000 that you want to invest in BTC;however, you are worried about whether the price will go down to $500. Well, why don't you use approximately half of the $1,000 ($500), and buy some BTC now? If the price goes down to $500, then you can use the other $500 or at that point you may have more to invest. or if at that point you believe it is going down some more, then buy another $250 and wait to see if BTC prices go down more.

It is generally less safe to attempt to time the market and attempt to bet all or NOTHING b/c inevitably it remains difficult to predict.

I just didn't wanted to wake up with knowledge that I could have waited one day and buy for a better price. It's hard to argue with your logic, though. I will follow your advice. Cheers.

He's telling you to catch a falling knife. LOL. Bad advice

thats not what hes saying

hes saying, realize you are not a god and there for cannot predict price movement, so dont try, just have a plan should it go lower.

A plan is having a stop loss. Not keep buying as the price falls. Thats the worse advice to give someone.

In reality, we each have to come to our own conclusions concerning our beliefs of the long-term viability of BTC. There may be a need for a stop loss, but really, I believe that a stop loss may depend upon news that BTC is broken, or something like that.... the trigger of a stop loss will likely be different for different people.

Quote from: twiifm on July 28, 2014, 02:36:40 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 28, 2014, 02:24:25 AM

Quote from: twiifm on July 28, 2014, 01:55:04 AM

Quote from: cro on July 28, 2014, 01:49:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 28, 2014, 01:41:42 AM

Quote from: cro on July 28, 2014, 01:28:51 AM

Quote from: beetcoin on July 28, 2014, 01:06:37 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 12:27:18 AM

Quote from: cro on July 27, 2014, 11:58:00 PM

I am wondering whether it is time to buy or not. No sleep for me, I guess.

i guess a good night sleep isn't very valuable to you?

most common rookie bitcoiner mistake.

set an order and get some sleep...

yeah, after being sleep deprived and feeling deranged, i don't think you'd be in the best situation to make the right call.

Thanks for your concern. Wink

I would buy some BTC straight away as I was about to for some time if it wasn't for this "will it fall terribly low or go up?" situation, really. I'm not afraid of fluctuations, but when people say the price may fall to 500$ it may be better for me to wait for a while...

This BTC investment matter does NOT need to be all or NOTHING, and really it remains quite risky to attempt to predict the market exactly.

Let's say that you have $1,000 that you want to invest in BTC;however, you are worried about whether the price will go down to $500. Well, why don't you use approximately half of the $1,000 ($500), and buy some BTC now? If the price goes down to $500, then you can use the other $500 or at that point you may have more to invest. or if at that point you believe it is going down some more, then buy another $250 and wait to see if BTC prices go down more.

It is generally less safe to attempt to time the market and attempt to bet all or NOTHING b/c inevitably it remains difficult to predict.

I just didn't wanted to wake up with knowledge that I could have waited one day and buy for a better price. It's hard to argue with your logic, though. I will follow your advice. Cheers.

He's telling you to catch a falling knife. LOL. Bad advice

I don't think so. If you believe in the fundamentals, then you believe that ultimately the price is going to go up. Each investor has to come to their own conclusions regarding what they believe based on the information that they have at their disposal.. and sometimes there are leaps of faith involved in such beliefs.

What fundamentals? A purely speculative asset has no fundamentals

The only real economy where things were priced in bitcoins was silk road

You can conclude until you are blue in the face that we should treat BTC like any other asset class or to suggest that it is NOT tangible and throw out a variety of other mainstream derogatory arguments, but that does NOT change the fact that BTC has several innovations that have NEVER been tried before in the same vehicle. I am NOT going to go through and argue all the basics of BTC and BTC 101 - b/c those have been batted about through all kinds of forums, including this thread. You may need to read up, if you believe that BTC is some flash in the pan pump and dump. BTC has continued extended adoption and continued and extended investments and continued and extended liquidation avenues. IN other words, BTC prices are going up, it is just a matter of time, whether it is this week or whether it is within the next year or possibly, worse case scenario a little longer than that....

In any event, the odds are that BTC prices will be going to $700 and beyond in the next few months and then past $850 and into the $3k to 5K range by mid 2015. Surely, this prediction may be off a little bit, but the idea remains that BTC is on its way up, rather than down.

Quote from: cro on July 28, 2014, 02:37:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 28, 2014, 02:30:51 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 02:01:55 AM

Quote from: twiifm on July 28, 2014, 01:55:04 AM

Quote from: cro on July 28, 2014, 01:49:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 28, 2014, 01:41:42 AM

Quote from: cro on July 28, 2014, 01:28:51 AM

Quote from: beetcoin on July 28, 2014, 01:06:37 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 12:27:18 AM

Quote from: cro on July 27, 2014, 11:58:00 PM

I am wondering whether it is time to buy or not. No sleep for me, I guess.

i guess a good night sleep isn't very valuable to you?

most common rookie bitcoiner mistake.

set an order and get some sleep...

yeah, after being sleep deprived and feeling deranged, i don't think you'd be in the best situation to make the right call.

Thanks for your concern. Wink

I would buy some BTC straight away as I was about to for some time if it wasn't for this "will it fall terribly low or go up?" situation, really. I'm not afraid of fluctuations, but when people say the price may fall to 500$ it may be better for me to wait for a while...

This BTC investment matter does NOT need to be all or NOTHING, and really it remains quite risky to attempt to predict the market exactly.

Let's say that you have $1,000 that you want to invest in BTC;however, you are worried about whether the price will go down to $500. Well, why don't you use approximately half of the $1,000 ($500), and buy some BTC now? If the price goes down to $500, then you can use the other $500 or at that point you may have more to invest. or if at that point you believe it is going down some more, then buy another $250 and wait to see if BTC prices go down more.

It is generally less safe to attempt to time the market and attempt to bet all or NOTHING b/c inevitably it remains difficult to predict.

I just didn't wanted to wake up with knowledge that I could have waited one day and buy for a better price. It's hard to argue with your logic, though. I will follow your advice. Cheers.

He's telling you to catch a falling knife. LOL. Bad advice

thats not what hes saying

hes saying, realize you are not a god and there for cannot predict price movement, so dont try, just have a plan should it go lower.

Exactamente!!!!! The plan of investing while the price is going down does NOT need to be exactly how I described it b/c I quickly outlined a viable way to think about preparing for downward BTC price manipulations.

For example, I have had about $800 of BTC allocated in fiat for over a month, and I have been just waiting and waiting and waiting for when to buy with that $800. In about a week, I have another $2,000 coming in. That $800 will become $2800. I will probably buy about $1,400 with that, and just wait to see what happens regarding the other $1,400. I hate to run out completely of BTC allocated fiat - just in case the BTC price goes down some more.

'Twas a good read, gents. Thank you. I guess that I'll observe charts for a while and then I'll decide how much to spend on my first BTC order.

By the way, when there is quite a bit of increase volume and downward pressures, it may be good to wait to attempt to buy at a low point. A problem with this; however, is that the trend could reverse at any time and then downward turns into upward.

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 03:26:07 AM

583.IThinkI'mGoingToPuke!

fuck this, bed time.

Don't Puke. HODL!!!!!, HODL!!!!!!, HODL!!!!!!

Quote from: fff13 on July 28, 2014, 04:04:25 AM

Quote from: justusranvier on July 28, 2014, 03:44:23 AM

Quote from: fff13 on July 28, 2014, 03:39:40 AM

but when we had all the great news rolling in lately, you would think we'd be going up.

The longest Bitcoin has ever gone between all time highs was 21 months - from the summer of 2011 until spring of 2013.

There was a lot of good news in 2012 too, with little-to-no price action.

We're only 7 months past an ATH now.

Another 14 months which should put us around October 2015.
Anything is possible with bitcoin.

Could be longer than 21 months, too, and I put the last ATH as 8 months ago, NOT 7... from late November to late July.

Quote from: Sandia on July 28, 2014, 08:03:53 AM

7778 is the ATH, right? Time to short the thread.

Post dumpers are running out of stream... Cheesy

Quote from: mmitech on July 28, 2014, 01:33:33 PM

what a good feeling when being right

told you so Grin

but you called me a troll and spammer and some even called me imbecile, what a shame...

YES.... Finally you are beginning to understand that you are a retarded troll. Slowly but surely. Cheesy

It seems that the 7777 page dumpers have run out of STEAM. Cheesy

They may be recharging for 8888? Roll Eyes

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 07:21:48 PM

it happening pretty fast,

haven't seen bitcoin act this way in a while

as always if you'd like chop your bitcoin in half, and not benefit from its successes, buy AUR ( its really CHEAP! ) or BTCD ( its not drak yet, but they are paying people to make it dark!) or DOGE ( its a fucking MEME coin, if this doesn't cut your BTC in half idk what will ).

Maybe some litecoin? Cheesy

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 07:30:10 PM

the real party starts when i start handing out free beer.

Maybe that should be the next poll question? Or maybe a dual question?

At what price should adam begin handing out free beers?

At what price should adam hand out one free Lamborghini?

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 08:51:52 PM

Quote from: hyphymikey on July 28, 2014, 08:44:55 PM

So who sold in the 570s?

Remember the coins shroomskits bought at 680?

ya... I think so.

You really think that Shroomskit sold? I think that he was just pulling our collective legs.

Certainly, he can frequently be a bit dramatic, but he is a bit of a truth stretcher too.. that is the nature of his dramatism, it seems.

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 08:57:41 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 28, 2014, 08:54:48 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 28, 2014, 08:51:52 PM

Quote from: hyphymikey on July 28, 2014, 08:44:55 PM

So who sold in the 570s?

Remember the coins shroomskits bought at 680?

ya... I think so.

You really think that Shroomskit sold? I think that he was just pulling our collective legs.

Certainly, he can frequently be a bit dramatic, but he is a bit of a truth stretcher too.. that is the nature of his dramatism, it seems.

well how long would you hold bags from 680?

holding is easier said then done.

I've always been mage bullish, but fuck man i sold! i sold tones! money.... its crazy!

I started buying at $1,200 in November 2013, and I have NOT sold since, except for a couple attempts to trade small amounts of BTC when I was pretty sure that the price was going down. NONETHELESS, each time that I sold any BTC, I was scared fairly shitless that I was going to miss the train/rocket.

Accordingly, I believe selling is NOT a good thing, especially now that prices have been on a downward trajectory for about 8 months.

Actually, I feel as if I am lecturing to the choir Adam bc u taught me some of these exact strategies.

Quote from: minerpumpkin on July 29, 2014, 12:06:36 AM

Quote from: empowering on July 28, 2014, 11:44:29 PM

What are they going to do? Is this a day for green or red candles? We'll see...

Where is this place? looks very smoggy, no?

Quote from: derpinheimer on July 29, 2014, 02:34:45 AM

Quote from: twiifm on July 29, 2014, 02:09:53 AM

Quote from: justusranvier on July 29, 2014, 01:38:52 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 29, 2014, 01:14:28 AM

other threads still think we are heading down, hahaha we are one step ahead!

I don't think we can go down very far. Looks like support above 7777 is holding.

As long as we don't dump our posts and HODL. 7777 support should hold

A crash to 7776 is imminent. Support dwindling Cry

That page dumping theme has run out of steam... ADMIT IT!!!!!! Tongue

Quote from: lay785 on July 29, 2014, 04:21:29 AM

Quote from: derpinheimer on July 29, 2014, 02:34:45 AM

Quote from: twiifm on July 29, 2014, 02:09:53 AM

Quote from: justusranvier on July 29, 2014, 01:38:52 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 29, 2014, 01:14:28 AM

other threads still think we are heading down, hahaha we are one step ahead!

I don't think we can go down very far. Looks like support above 7777 is holding.

As long as we don't dump our posts and HODL. 7777 support should hold

A crash to 7776 is imminent. Support dwindling Cry

ill delete my posts until it goes down to 6666 then re-start posting at the bottom.

You are going to have to rally a lot of compatriots to accomplish that 7797 - 6666 = 1,131 pages x 20 posts per page = 22,620 posts. You have 110 posts... he he he.... You do not have enough capital to be talking so BIG.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 29, 2014, 05:12:30 PM

Quote from: podyx on July 29, 2014, 05:09:34 PM

Looking out for a cup and handle pattern to form on the 6h charts (should reach 620 sometime the first 8 days of august)

Could be the beginning of a bubble after that

Isn't there an upside-down "cup and handle" from May/30 to Jun/26?

Don't be using reality to rain on our potential parade!!! Tongue

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on July 29, 2014, 10:13:49 PM

Quote from: esse83 on July 29, 2014, 09:45:16 PM

This is the latest update from the willy report, please read it.

Quote

I want to start off by saying I agree with a lot of the criticism on this article that’s appeared the Web; my conclusions were a bit too opinionated and perhaps exaggerated, and didn’t really fit the tone of the rest of the report, which was intended to be an objective account of my findings. I’ve corrected that with this update. Still, I stand by the most significant conclusion made: Willy was the cause for the November bubble. Sure, it didn’t do it all by itself, but it was the catalyst, and prevented price from coming down by effectively removing all selling pressure with its extremely constant buying (why market sell when you can place an ask order, and know it will be eaten into anyway?). In financial markets, sentiment is driven by price, much more so than the other way around. People see price skyrocketing, get euphoric, forget all the negative and assume the asset must be something absolutely amazing for people to place so much value in it (that, or they see an opportunity to “get rich quick”). It gets media attention, and sparks this whole positive feedback loop thing. A classic bubble in every way, really; but something has to light the fire, and subsequently prevent it from petering out.

Willy was the cause for the November bubble. So yeah, there it is.

This update doesn't add anything new and still doesn't show any proof whatsoever.

Also, the primacy of Gox is not true. Especially during the last bubble to $1200 Gox was becoming less and less relevant and with pathetic volume, while the chinese at BTC China started throwing hundreds of thousands into BTC.

Some argue that the major cause of the november bubble was basically the chinese and their trillion dollar shadow currency speculation game finally entering the BTC market, but no, now we are supposed to believe that a single bot on a single exchange with dead volume compared to Bitstamp was the major cause just because some dude on the internet without concrete proof (at least for his conclusions) told us so.

Maybe the BTC price IS a bubble and will collapse, but for other reasons (chinese pumping and dumping it, various problems, early adopters exiting etc) not because of a single bot on a single exchange.

Yep!!!!! The Willybot theory of BTC price bubbles remains way too simplistic. There have been a lot of causes for these various bubbles over the years, and there is considerable potential that willybot may have contributed towards a November 2013 bubble, but that does NOT mean BTC in November 2013 should have stayed at $100-ish. Maybe BTC prices should have only gone up to $800? In any event, trying to ascribe the behavior(s) of a multitude of persons and institutions to one bot, seems like fantasy-land in the making.

Quote from: DjPxH on July 29, 2014, 10:34:04 PM

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on July 29, 2014, 10:13:49 PM

Quote from: esse83 on July 29, 2014, 09:45:16 PM

This is the latest update from the willy report, please read it.

Quote

I want to start off by saying I agree with a lot of the criticism on this article that’s appeared the Web; my conclusions were a bit too opinionated and perhaps exaggerated, and didn’t really fit the tone of the rest of the report, which was intended to be an objective account of my findings. I’ve corrected that with this update. Still, I stand by the most significant conclusion made: Willy was the cause for the November bubble. Sure, it didn’t do it all by itself, but it was the catalyst, and prevented price from coming down by effectively removing all selling pressure with its extremely constant buying (why market sell when you can place an ask order, and know it will be eaten into anyway?). In financial markets, sentiment is driven by price, much more so than the other way around. People see price skyrocketing, get euphoric, forget all the negative and assume the asset must be something absolutely amazing for people to place so much value in it (that, or they see an opportunity to “get rich quick”). It gets media attention, and sparks this whole positive feedback loop thing. A classic bubble in every way, really; but something has to light the fire, and subsequently prevent it from petering out.

Willy was the cause for the November bubble. So yeah, there it is.

Gox is not true. Especially during the last bubble to $1200 Gox was becoming less and less relevant and with pathetic volume, while the chinese at BTC China started throwing hundreds of thousands into BTC.

I have my doubts about the Willy report as well, but concerning the volume: It doesn't matter if the volume was rather low or the volume only accounted for 8% or whatever of coins traded on Mt. Gox because if Willy really only ever bought coins, it wouldn't drive the volume up that much. Coins get sold and re-sold and re-sold over and over again. If Willy is simply buying, that low volume is enough to push the price up.
If this should really be true... Wouldn't we now sit on a vastly inflated bitcoin price that is about to collapse at any time?

I understand that this is a BTC speculation thread; however, you are speculating too much without specifics. give us some specifics. Possibly Willy caused a certain amount of BTC price inflation; however, that potential price inflation would dissipate over time, no? If we were at 20% price inflation in November 2013, does it follow that we would still be at 20% price inflation - likely NOT...... give some numbers to support your speculation in order to make it meaningful - otherwise you are just spreading and/or encouraging the spreading of near baseless FUD.

Quote from: DjPxH on July 29, 2014, 11:07:16 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 29, 2014, 10:46:02 PM

Quote from: DjPxH on July 29, 2014, 10:34:04 PM

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on July 29, 2014, 10:13:49 PM

Quote from: esse83 on July 29, 2014, 09:45:16 PM

This is the latest update from the willy report, please read it.

Quote

I want to start off by saying I agree with a lot of the criticism on this article that’s appeared the Web; my conclusions were a bit too opinionated and perhaps exaggerated, and didn’t really fit the tone of the rest of the report, which was intended to be an objective account of my findings. I’ve corrected that with this update. Still, I stand by the most significant conclusion made: Willy was the cause for the November bubble. Sure, it didn’t do it all by itself, but it was the catalyst, and prevented price from coming down by effectively removing all selling pressure with its extremely constant buying (why market sell when you can place an ask order, and know it will be eaten into anyway?). In financial markets, sentiment is driven by price, much more so than the other way around. People see price skyrocketing, get euphoric, forget all the negative and assume the asset must be something absolutely amazing for people to place so much value in it (that, or they see an opportunity to “get rich quick”). It gets media attention, and sparks this whole positive feedback loop thing. A classic bubble in every way, really; but something has to light the fire, and subsequently prevent it from petering out.

Willy was the cause for the November bubble. So yeah, there it is.

Gox is not true. Especially during the last bubble to $1200 Gox was becoming less and less relevant and with pathetic volume, while the chinese at BTC China started throwing hundreds of thousands into BTC.

I have my doubts about the Willy report as well, but concerning the volume: It doesn't matter if the volume was rather low or the volume only accounted for 8% or whatever of coins traded on Mt. Gox because if Willy really only ever bought coins, it wouldn't drive the volume up that much. Coins get sold and re-sold and re-sold over and over again. If Willy is simply buying, that low volume is enough to push the price up.
If this should really be true... Wouldn't we now sit on a vastly inflated bitcoin price that is about to collapse at any time?

I understand that this is a BTC speculation thread; however, you are speculating too much without specifics. give us some specifics. Possibly Willy caused a certain amount of BTC price inflation; however, that potential price inflation would dissipate over time, no? If we were at 20% price inflation in November 2013, does it follow that we would still be at 20% price inflation - likely NOT...... give some numbers to support your speculation in order to make it meaningful - otherwise you are just spreading and/or encouraging the spreading of near baseless FUD.

The Report points out that those bots (Willy/Markus) have bought a total of about 650000 BTC over that time. Sometimes they didn't even spend money for those trades. These 650000 BTC (plus the recovered 200000 BTC) amount to the total amount of Gox's lost 850000 coins. So maybe those 650000 BTC never existed? Maybe they were stolen and Gox tried to buy them from the customers for fake FIAT. The bots were constantly buying in a way that made it almost impossible for the price to go down! Couldn't this be a very valid reason for a bubble?

Yes, it could be part of an explanation for part of a bubble... but such an explanation seems very incomplete in the way that you are depicting the situation.

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 30, 2014, 03:47:08 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 30, 2014, 03:36:47 AM

Quote from: esse83 on July 29, 2014, 09:37:22 PM

Quote from: esse83 on July 29, 2014, 09:25:47 PM

Quote from the willy report.

Quote

Mt. Gox was always, always, the first mover. BTC China seemed to react within 1 or 2 minutes, sometimes leading to a higher proportional rise in price, sure, but it was NEVER the first mover. In my eyes, this means Mt. Gox and not BTC China was leading the market.

I have yet to see any good arguments against this report. [ ... ] Do you honestly think btc price would be in the hundreds if it was not for MtGox?

When I looked at the plots in that report, I had the exact opposite impression. The price at MtGOX increased by large discrete jumps every time "Markus" did his buys, but there did not seem to be an immediate echo of those jumps in China. My reading is that "Markus" was merely doing arbitrage with China, buying cheap coins at MtGOX and seling them over there (presumably on BTC-China, which at the time had the largest volume).

Later, when "Markus" was replaced by the "Willy" robot, it became harder to tell who was leading.

Note that the bubble started two months after Huobi's opening and 4 months after OKCoin's. The volume at Huobi grew steadily from ~130 BTC/day during September and October to ~30 kBTC/day in November, and the other Chinese exchanges had similar growth. In November OKCoin had ~30 kBTC/day too, and BTC-China had ~50 kBTC/day, whereas MtGOX barely had dubled its volume to ~25 kBTC/day.

On Nov/18 and Nov/19 there were large spikes at those three Chinese exchanges; at Huobi and OKCoin the all-time high actually was on Nov/19. The corresponding rises at MtGOX on those days were much smaller (the high was only 3/4 of the Nov/29 ATH). To me, all these details (and common sense) are more consistent with China, rather than MtGOX, driving the November bubble.

Whether "Markus"/"Willy" was doing its thing with real dollars or with virtual "goxDollars", and whether its owner eventually got the money out of China, are separate questions.

The claim that *I* find absurd is that a single trader at MtGOX could pump the price up from 100$ to 1200$ over a whole month, all over he world, including the huge Chinese market -- and that the the price would stay at pumped-up levels, six months after MtGOX's collapse.

oh come on people, where you not there?
at one point there was so much activity exchanges all over were lagging / crashing constantly. it took me an hour to log in and make a trade!
this was no 1 man pump...
this what happened:

thank you Jorge, it is an absurd piece of FUD...

That's a much better summary of what seemed to happen and what was probably detectable, Adam....

Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 30, 2014, 11:09:27 AM

Are there still people here who believe this is just "shaking out the weak hands" and that we're about to go to the moon?

Let's call it what it is. Bitcoin is failing. People are getting out. Moving on to other things.
The peak is over. This WAS the bubble you all were waiting for.

There isn't massive user adoption that will raise the price. Companies aren't standing in line to use Bitcoin. Wallstreet isn't dying to get in.
Everybody has been saying that to the point where everyone thought it was true Well it isn't. You've been lied to.

The price won't bounce back. Feel free to give me one valid reason why it should. You can't.

Smart money is getting out. Just like i just did. But i won't go away. I will keep on coming here to see how you fools will post charts every day to show how we are about to go to the moon while in the meantime the price goes down and down.
I will probably laugh as well.

What a fucking attention whore... .Get the fuck out of here if you are NOT invested. We DONT need anymore meaningless posts from people who are NOT invested. Good bye, Shroomie.

Quote from: Pump3r on July 30, 2014, 06:49:50 PM

Quote from: Torque on July 30, 2014, 06:46:58 PM

Wikipedia now accepts bitcoin:

http://www.coindesk.com/wikipedia-now-accepts-bitcoin-donations/

Get ready for dump.

I would never give them a donation in BTC. Why should I if they dump it on Coinbase? If want to dump BTC I make it myself....

That's NOT the point. Who gives a flying fuck what Wikipedia does with it? You have just made a purchase/donation with your BTC - which is another means to liquidate (to the extent to which you may have such an inclination).

Quote from: kurious on July 30, 2014, 07:34:43 PM

You think it's bad here - this was the BTCE trollbox a few minutes ago:

Pimbo: digital can be erased, paper can be burned, and anything can get lost

ArlequinST: not if its up your colon

ArlequinST: rectum wallet?

Pimbo: wallet-in-a-hole

ArlequinST: pebbles you like rectum wallet, dont you?

zigz: new thing the kids are doing? spraying their bitcoin up eachothers rectums?

rick1208: too much dumpage for allmost no reason

ArlequinST: maybe sticking.. be a bit challenging to spray one up there.. ask pebbles, he seems to be the know it all about rectum wallet placement

pegglemaster: Pimbo, so whats your personal method?

zigz: I like to spray my bitcoin

rick1208: ama, thinking about New York

zigz: like a lion, scent-marking it's territory

Pimbo: pegglemaster, nothing fancy, just on my hdd (and dropbox), not exactly secure..

Pimbo: but im thinking hypodermic mircochips or hypodermic pouches would be the way to go

zigz: Might have to pull out the chicken bones for this next trade

memacs: Coma

memacs: Rizoma

zigz: Pimbo, you could maybe do a small non-biodegradable and stick it in your scrotum or something though

Pimbo: a superhuman photographic memory would be ideal

zigz: since the scrotum is already kind of a carrying bag

ArlequinST: I like sticking a condom on my bitcoin safe storage

ArlequinST: ribbed for her pleasure

zigz: I suppose you could sacrifice an entire nut, have the other replaced with your storage inside the fake nut

Pimbo: If you're an average american, you'll have plenty of space in your body for pouches!

ArlequinST: zigz, interesting..

LapMinerOnFire: Pimbo, yeah they can stick stuff under their front boobs, back boobs, other flaps

zigz: that'd totally work. I dunno if you'd want rfid or any way to access it, bip38, or something, private key, or just make it long term storage, so you have to physically remove your fake ball to access to the data

Pimbo: or on those electric scooters, never go anywhere without em

ArlequinST: we can tattoo bitcoins on our arses too!!

ArlequinST: so much potential

zigz: ArlequinST, could you imagine getting mugged though? Guy just flays off that portion of your ass

Quality stuff.

Kurious::::: and which one are you?

Quote from: gizmoh on July 30, 2014, 08:04:03 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 30, 2014, 07:38:21 PM

Agreed.
Unlike previous years the public doesn't want to invest anymore because they think Bitcoin will go up.
All they see is previous buyers losing money.

What we have here is:
No new buyers.
No amount of good news will make the price go up.
Any slightly bad news will cause a crash.
No increased user adoption.
Lots of people getting out.

This was gonna be the year of Bitcoin. It simply failed.
It won't magically go up again. There is no reason why it would.

Such deep thoughts shroomy, Welcome to the Bears Club Grin

P.s: you can unban me now Wink

WOW!!!!!!! FUCK!!!!! SHROOMIE IS A GENIUS!!!!!! WHO WOULD HAVE THUNK? Cheesy

Quote from: kryptopojken on July 30, 2014, 08:21:43 PM

Quote from: BuyLowSellLower on July 30, 2014, 08:17:12 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on July 30, 2014, 08:06:48 PM

Weekly MACD currently red :/

Is there any MACD that's not red at the moment?

well I guess this one is the indicator a lot of ppl usually talk abt, but hey! the week ain't over yet

THE Weekly MACD week ends today.

Quote from: kireinaha on July 30, 2014, 09:02:51 PM

Quote from: gotmilk_ on July 30, 2014, 08:59:22 PM

Time for a bounce? Huh

who will win it Grin

In case you haven't noticed, bitcoin doesn't "bounce" anymore. We fall, hit support, move sideways for a week or two, and then fall more. Rinse, repeat.

YEAH RIGHT!!!!! If you get enough stupid-ass bear FUD spreaders in here... maybe you can squeeze a few more coins out of people with this baloney talk.

In other words ------- HODL!!!!!!!, HODL!!!!!!!, HODL!!!!!!!, HODL!!!!!!!

Quote from: DjPxH on July 30, 2014, 10:02:51 PM

Everyone's just talking around here, let's put our money where our mouths are and buy some BTC in order to get this baby on course to the moon again! Grin

How would you know if posters here are buying or NOT? I'm sure some posters here are buying (and of the belief that you should buy while the prices are going down... or at least attempting to buy most at the lowest price point - without missing the boat). I bought some at $575, and I did NOT know whether prices would go lower, and then I will likely buy some more at $550 or so,,, and maybe at other points... depending on the passage of time and whether BTC prices go lower.

Quote from: cbeast on July 30, 2014, 10:16:36 PM

My theory is Bitcoin bagholders are dumping to buy Argentine Pesos.

Buying pesos and dongs... a funny thing Cheesy

Quote from: lemonte on July 30, 2014, 11:14:06 PM

Quote from: empowering on July 30, 2014, 11:12:39 PM

Quote from: chromosoma on July 30, 2014, 11:05:52 PM

That's it, crypto ponzi is going to POP. Big people earned enough money, now it is time to exit.

Good one

Just re reading Chromosoma's posts.. Hilarious, calls for $300 at every tiny drop! He/she sounds like a broken record.

Haven't seen him/her for a while, and in that regard s/he likes to make an appearance during special periods, like this. Cheesy

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 30, 2014, 11:19:39 PM

i guess i'll join the party and buy some myself...

kinda went all in at 636CAD, but i always keep a couple thousand just incase i feel like "over extending" my position, i guess now is a good time for that

i'd be lying if i said i didnt have any doubts... fuck man, am i positioning myself in a conner Undecided

time will tell

Maybe only put in half of that "couple thousand," and then wait and see with the rest. I would hate to see you completely without fiat, if the time comes for a better bargain.

Quote from: drez on July 30, 2014, 11:27:17 PM

Everyone stop panicking. This is following what I said earlier today. We are past the second horizontal, but it still could hold which means we will be following a triangle to a point before a crash or a moonshot. But what I think will happen is 560 will break and then we will rally around 540 in keeping with the slight downward trend from June first. If there isn't a rally there then or 540 won't hold, then the long term trend should keep it above 515. If that fails. We are in for a ride and I expect some crazy action.

http://imageshack.com/a/img536/8384/OyNafd.png

HEhehehehe.... $515 is gotta hold!!!!!! NO?

Quote from: BinaryReign on July 30, 2014, 11:41:35 PM

Bought more under $560.

Extremely Happy to get so much BTC for so little inflationary fiat!
Grin

I had already projected ahead, and I had expected to be buying BTC for higher prices... so anyhow, I am willing to pay more, but I am glad to be able to accumulate more at these lower prices. I run out of fiat too, from time to time... and I am still waiting for some pretty good sized chunks to come my direction in the coming weeks...

Quote from: dnaleor on July 30, 2014, 11:57:49 PM

Don't panic!

CALM THE FUCK DOWN!!!!!!!

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 31, 2014, 12:12:41 AM

this could be the reason for the drop in price the past few day?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6dboY9FtDo

"BitLicense"

I guess i missed this news when it came out.

so apparently Bitcoin is pretty hard to use to buy small things in NY ( you have to give allkinds of info to buy anything with bitcoin in NY? )

THAT proposed regulation is at the 45 day public comment period. Accordingly, it is still only a proposal.

Quote from: vuduchyld on July 31, 2014, 12:09:31 AM

Quote from: DjPxH on July 30, 2014, 11:59:17 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 30, 2014, 10:18:06 PM

Quote from: DjPxH on July 30, 2014, 10:02:51 PM

Everyone's just talking around here, let's put our money where our mouths are and buy some BTC in order to get this baby on course to the moon again! Grin

How would you know if posters here are buying or NOT? I'm sure some posters here are buying (and of the belief that you should buy while the prices are going down... or at least attempting to buy most at the lowest price point - without missing the boat). I bought some at $575, and I did NOT know whether prices would go lower, and then I will likely buy some more at $550 or so,,, and maybe at other points... depending on the passage of time and whether BTC prices go lower.

To be honest, I believe that a lot of people around here already maxxed out their allotment which they allow themselves to invest in BTC. Some may even be well above a reasonable level.

Yeah, that is the problem. Too many young and/or inexperienced participants in this market. I have to chuckle when most people talk about "fundamental analysis" here because it doesn't apply in the traditional sense. BTC is the epitome of a speculative play. It could go way up or way down. It moves independently of news. There is no balance sheet and no history of earnings to analyze. Yet people are over-invested and over-leveraged to the hilt.

When I go to bed tonight, I will sleep well. When I wake up, if the price is lower, I will buy more. I don't care if it is $540, $520, $400, or even lower. If people can't say the same, they should lighten their load. But not now. Bad time to sell.

BTW: I believe that I do NOT fit your definition of someone who is over-invested in BTC b/c I am still continuing to increase my holdings in BTC... little by little.... continuously with much of my spare BTC allocated fiat.

However, in the interest of broader disclosure, I do have some leveraging of my bitcoin holdings... My holdings are leveraged over about 16 months (until September 2015)... ... so the NOTE will be due then. I do have a back up source of money to pay off the leveraged amount, in the event that BTC is NOT performing adequately by September 2015... Then have to go to plan B.... ..

Quote from: justusranvier on July 31, 2014, 12:26:47 AM

On the bright side, the page count in this thread hit an all time high today.

hehehehe

I believe those page dumptertards have long given up.

Quote from: kireinaha on July 31, 2014, 12:49:32 AM

Just a reminder to all less experienced speculators out there: never throw good money after bad.

What's that supposed to mean? Sounds a bit shallow and stupid to me, and it is trying to suggest that BTC is NOT a good investment, no?

I believe continuing to buy BTC under $1,000 is a good value - and the more BTC is below $1k the better the value in purchasing it..

Certainly, I am NOT going to want to pay $1k today, when I can get it for $563.82 (as I type). ... but I am ONLY going to buy so much of it in the $5xx range b/c I going to attempt NOT TO over-leverage myself.

Quote from: Junkbarman on July 31, 2014, 01:01:10 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 31, 2014, 12:58:41 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 31, 2014, 12:12:41 AM

this could be the reason for the drop in price the past few day?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6dboY9FtDo

"BitLicense"

I guess i missed this news when it came out.

so apparently Bitcoin is pretty hard to use to buy small things in NY ( you have to give allkinds of info to buy anything with bitcoin in NY? )

THAT proposed regulation is at the 45 day public comment period. Accordingly, it is still only a proposal.

Doesn't NY limit the size soda drinks you can buy too? I don't see Coke and Pepsi stock dropping

That Soda restriction legislation news got a lot of press, too, but I think in the end that legislation did NOT withstand the test of time.

But, back to NY bitcoin legislation, it seems too preliminary to be having such a negative impact on the BTC price - even though rumors do have negative impacts.. .

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 31, 2014, 01:12:05 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 31, 2014, 01:07:12 AM

Quote from: vuduchyld on July 31, 2014, 12:09:31 AM

Quote from: DjPxH on July 30, 2014, 11:59:17 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 30, 2014, 10:18:06 PM

Quote from: DjPxH on July 30, 2014, 10:02:51 PM

Everyone's just talking around here, let's put our money where our mouths are and buy some BTC in order to get this baby on course to the moon again! Grin

How would you know if posters here are buying or NOT? I'm sure some posters here are buying (and of the belief that you should buy while the prices are going down... or at least attempting to buy most at the lowest price point - without missing the boat). I bought some at $575, and I did NOT know whether prices would go lower, and then I will likely buy some more at $550 or so,,, and maybe at other points... depending on the passage of time and whether BTC prices go lower.

To be honest, I believe that a lot of people around here already maxxed out their allotment which they allow themselves to invest in BTC. Some may even be well above a reasonable level.

Yeah, that is the problem. Too many young and/or inexperienced participants in this market. I have to chuckle when most people talk about "fundamental analysis" here because it doesn't apply in the traditional sense. BTC is the epitome of a speculative play. It could go way up or way down. It moves independently of news. There is no balance sheet and no history of earnings to analyze. Yet people are over-invested and over-leveraged to the hilt.

When I go to bed tonight, I will sleep well. When I wake up, if the price is lower, I will buy more. I don't care if it is $540, $520, $400, or even lower. If people can't say the same, they should lighten their load. But not now. Bad time to sell.

BTW: I believe that I do NOT fit your definition of someone who is over-invested in BTC b/c I am still continuing to increase my holdings in BTC... little by little.... continuously with much of my spare BTC allocated fiat.

However, in the interest of broader disclosure, I do have some leveraging of my bitcoin holdings... My holdings are leveraged over about 16 months (until September 2015)... ... so the NOTE will be due then. I do have a back up source of money to pay off the leveraged amount, in the event that BTC is NOT performing adequately by September 2015... Then have to go to plan B.... ..

don't leverage if you have the funds to finance your buying yourself. why pay the interest if you don't have to?

The amount was $20k, and the interest was $800 for the whole period from about May 2014 to September 2015. I think that it was a good idea, but I understand what you are saying regarding potential issues with leveraging.

Quote from: Junkbarman on July 31, 2014, 01:47:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 31, 2014, 01:22:18 AM

Quote from: Junkbarman on July 31, 2014, 01:01:10 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 31, 2014, 12:58:41 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 31, 2014, 12:12:41 AM

this could be the reason for the drop in price the past few day?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6dboY9FtDo

"BitLicense"

I guess i missed this news when it came out.

so apparently Bitcoin is pretty hard to use to buy small things in NY ( you have to give allkinds of info to buy anything with bitcoin in NY? )

THAT proposed regulation is at the 45 day public comment period. Accordingly, it is still only a proposal.

Doesn't NY limit the size soda drinks you can buy too? I don't see Coke and Pepsi stock dropping

That Soda restriction legislation news got a lot of press, too, but I think in the end that legislation did NOT withstand the test of time.

But, back to NY bitcoin legislation, it seems too preliminary to be having such a negative impact on the BTC price - even though rumors do have negative impacts.. .

Won't you have a Pepsi?

About 3 years ago, I gave up about 99% of sodas - and life has gone on without those kinds of drinks.... Cheesy

Quote from: vuduchyld on July 31, 2014, 01:51:55 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 31, 2014, 01:28:39 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 31, 2014, 01:12:05 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 31, 2014, 01:07:12 AM

Quote from: vuduchyld on July 31, 2014, 12:09:31 AM

Quote from: DjPxH on July 30, 2014, 11:59:17 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 30, 2014, 10:18:06 PM

Quote from: DjPxH on July 30, 2014, 10:02:51 PM

Everyone's just talking around here, let's put our money where our mouths are and buy some BTC in order to get this baby on course to the moon again! Grin

How would you know if posters here are buying or NOT? I'm sure some posters here are buying (and of the belief that you should buy while the prices are going down... or at least attempting to buy most at the lowest price point - without missing the boat). I bought some at $575, and I did NOT know whether prices would go lower, and then I will likely buy some more at $550 or so,,, and maybe at other points... depending on the passage of time and whether BTC prices go lower.

To be honest, I believe that a lot of people around here already maxxed out their allotment which they allow themselves to invest in BTC. Some may even be well above a reasonable level.

Yeah, that is the problem. Too many young and/or inexperienced participants in this market. I have to chuckle when most people talk about "fundamental analysis" here because it doesn't apply in the traditional sense. BTC is the epitome of a speculative play. It could go way up or way down. It moves independently of news. There is no balance sheet and no history of earnings to analyze. Yet people are over-invested and over-leveraged to the hilt.

When I go to bed tonight, I will sleep well. When I wake up, if the price is lower, I will buy more. I don't care if it is $540, $520, $400, or even lower. If people can't say the same, they should lighten their load. But not now. Bad time to sell.

BTW: I believe that I do NOT fit your definition of someone who is over-invested in BTC b/c I am still continuing to increase my holdings in BTC... little by little.... continuously with much of my spare BTC allocated fiat.

However, in the interest of broader disclosure, I do have some leveraging of my bitcoin holdings... My holdings are leveraged over about 16 months (until September 2015)... ... so the NOTE will be due then. I do have a back up source of money to pay off the leveraged amount, in the event that BTC is NOT performing adequately by September 2015... Then have to go to plan B.... ..

don't leverage if you have the funds to finance your buying yourself. why pay the interest if you don't have to?

The amount was $20k, and the interest was $800 for the whole period from about May 2014 to September 2015. I think that it was a good idea, but I understand what you are saying regarding potential issues with leveraging.

How the hell did you borrow $20K unsecured for less than 4%? I assume it was unsecured and that you didn't take a HELOC to do it.

Whether you are overexposed or not is really up to your own judgment. I think diversification is beautiful, myself. I've learned hard lessons in my life. If BTC runs, I'm happy. If not, I'm still happy. Of course, one thing that might make me different on this board is that I'm 46 years old. It has given me time to screw up financially and recover at least a couple of times. It has given me time to earn and accumulate assets. I have a plan and a path to financial security that BTC can't shake, it can only hasten.

You are correct. The loan was unsecure. It is a credit card promotional rate, and it took about 3 days to secure.

I could have borrowed more, but I figured that $20k was sufficient given my total situation.

I did several of these kinds of loans in the 2003-6 time-frame, and back then there were some that were completely 0%. It is more difficult to find 0% these days.

Quote from: vuduchyld on July 31, 2014, 02:32:23 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 31, 2014, 02:00:07 AM