I just spit my beer over the keybord. shit, needs more cleaning! 

Sorry, i am laughing my ass off, this whole conversation is so absurdly funny (plus too much wine and trading :-)
Literal ROFL for you guys. Funniest thread around here!

Can not stop laughing about the picture, that one of my drunk clients start to "defecating the wall". :-D
That is physically challenging!

That is factually wrong. Stop reading Marxism...(labor theory of value is a fallacy, and was since 1872). Holders do affect price! Just imagine a scenario, where everyone who bought a bitcoin would hold. Price would skyrocket. The only way a new buyer could get bitcoin is to find the first holder who partakes his btc at a given highest bidding price (that is market essentially). Every holder is a potential seller, there is no economic theory to exclude holders from the "seller" position.

Also, not every miner has to sell to "pay the bills" (you assume miners has btc as the only and exclusive revenue.). I do not. I mine, i did not sell a fraction of my BTC so far. Just because i mine BTC does not mean that is the only revenue i have, so i balance my other revenue costs to me to pay electric bill vs future possible profit from mining bitcoin. And i am sure most of the great miners (great as hash/sec) does the same, they run on deficit for now(? we can not tell) to come up profit in the future, it is called investing ...

Mining cost has nothing to do with btc price. It is the other way around, if at all. If you exclude the failing cloud mining services, you will see that all the other miners are still mining (hash/sec ain't dropping significantly). From genesis block, btc had no price at all for months, even though mining still had costs.

Stop spreading Marxism please!

Let me reflect on this, for that there are a massive amount of factually wrong observations.

First, mining is decentralized! https://blockchain.info/pools just because it is not a commie "equal share to all proletariate" the hashing power is in fact distributed (every pool mine has thousands of individual, group, corporate etc miners!), changing hands over time, can be freely entered or left (!).
Any centralized system will eventually show the symptoms of a single point of failure, arbitrary change of rules, also can NOT be entered by an outsider (citizens can not participate). That is the main difference, not the number of monopoly/oligopolic group(s); the ability to freely move in and out of the system. It is a qualitatively different way of decision making.

There is no such thing as money laundering. It is either my money, or yours, or i took it by force from you. So it is either mine by virtue (law, etc), or i stole it. Money laundering is an euphemism by the state for his "due share", that he wants you to accept the fact that he has the right to take it from you by force (steal it) - by the way,
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/17/hsbc-swiss-arm-fraud-money-laundering-charges-belgium - proves my point perfectly.

Consumer protection never protected anyone retro casually. It can not, they can only act AFTER the consumer was frauded, scammed, and threaten the fraud with jail. As long as time travel is not a option...

Also, "it either doesn't work in practice or nobody actually adopts it" is factually wrong. We have already adopted it and it does work for millions of people around the globe, it is weird to even say it on a bitcoin forum.

""Trusted third parties" are not out there just to screw ya." - Yes, in theory they are not there for that, they just do it in the practice, every. single. time in the last 5000 years. Power corrupts (the lack of incentives to play fair - which state power gives a human actor in reality - will eventually).

PS.: the whole natural life and its evolution from a single cell organism to a complex ecosystem on Earth works in a decentralized manner, "no trusted third parties", and it survived pretty much anything thrown at it. And we can agree that life on Earth is way more complex than the economy of Belgium...

Well, not exactly, i have compared the ability of adaptation to unforeseen or radical changes of nature as a decentralized system versus the ability of a centralized one - like the state controlled fiscal policy to adapt to the changing economic environment.

But, i like the idea:) Bitcoin has a sort of natural selection method in its DNA: adapts beneficial abilities from alt coins, discards weaknesses over time, new symbiotic "life forms" -sidechains emerges without a central authority.

100% agree. Also, smart people think that after the "revolution" they will give the orders. They won't, they will be "shot in the head" by dumb but agressive people...

I do not want to hear that tale (maybe out of scientific curiousity only!).
:-)

I am not sure, but i think you do not understand how the bitcoin network works. Every day we have several "hard forks" in the form of orphaned blocks. You simply do not understand the consensus mechanism, if you insist that A and B blockchains can coexists - with the same mining power behind them!- for more than say 2 consecutive blocks (on avg 20 minutes), and that they both individually represents bitcoin as per se. No, they do not.

The whole point of the consensus mechanism is to only and ever follow the longest chain of blocks in the long run, a.k.a. deciding which chain of blocks (A vs B) represents reality, and totally disregard transactions happened in the less long chain of blocks once a the n+1 block found. Hence your theoretical "B" chain would be instantly will be abandoned by the majority of miners (mining is automated by algorithm, not a press a button every ~10 min if you accept or not), resulting in that all the nodes will continue downloading and propagating the longer A chain, essentially destroying the B chain by the time the next block found. That B chain n-1 block became an orphaned block.

Yes, you can mine your own forked "B" copy of the blockchain at your laptop - offline! - until you start synchronise with the network, your B chain gets instantly overwritten by the majority A chain.

Also, your B chain will not ever propagate because: the moment you fork, you also inherit the difficulty of the A chain. That difficulty is so high, that your laptop will practically never finds the next block (which by the way will be without any transactions, since you are offline from the main A chain nodes), and without no new block, your offline node/mining copy will never reach enough blocks (aprx 2600) to reduce difficulty. This means that B chain will be hopelessly shorter than the A chain -> rejected by all miners/nodes on A chain.

TLDR.: Your idea will never work -not even in theory, since you missing the point in the first place- because the whole point of the PoW census is to have only ONE representation of the true about transactions (unspent BTCs sitting on addresses). By the way any full node wallet has the whole copy of the blockchain, every time you go offline more than 1 block, your copy is forked from A chain to B chain (n-1 long blockchain)....

EDIT: if you think that the state of the blockchain is a political decision, you are seriously should STOP posting bullshit here please. You do not understand the very basic idea: consensus through mathematical proof independent of central authority ( which is politics...)

I just wrote him a detailed reply how the consensus mechanism works. I think i have nailed it and he understands, if not, i has the power of ignore:)

Thanks, appreciated:)

Well, i do everything i can to learn. Even finished that MOOC of Nicosia Univ., i had the privilege to learn from Andreas M. A. himself!

That is why i am frustrated with all the miss information some spread here; the knowledge is available and free, yet they choose to remain in ignorant.

Saw that also on bitstamp. Wall eaten in 1 sec o.0

So, they are not running on the same protocol. So the two blockchains are not the same, since they have to run on different protocols. So 1+1=2, but, 1 not=1. That is the logic you described. Different protocol = not the bitcoin protocol accepted by majority of participants.



It may be possible that the Sun not shining tomorrow. The burden of proof is upon you, not on the bitcoin network. Also, why do you assume something that has 0, zero, nada possibility, since it has zero incentive to anyone participating in the mining process? What if i turn into an unicorn?



Keywords: "perhaps, could, afford, fair". You have no argument/proof why anyone, not even near 25% of the hashpower would "choose to" join basically an orphaned chain, let even a changed protocol which is not accepted by the majority of the nodes/miners/exchanges/wallets/individuals (miners are not alone this!). Please define FAIR. Show me 1, ONE author in the history of mankind who has an axiom of FAIR VALUE, and has been accepted by the unity of mankind! Quantify me "fair" please.



That is factually not true (aka  a lie). Anyone with interest (=money, principle) in bitcoin is not driven by immediate greed. We had several price run ups followed by burst (bubble), and it is still alive (bitcoin), so "immediate greed" is not the long time motivator.
Also, any change in the protocol is seriously wetted and reviewed by the community, and must be beneficial to the majority, else it would not be implemented by the majority, and would fail (it is still a conscensus mechanism, means majority of participants = consensus)

TLDR: You presume that people would act against their own known self interest in the number of millions and screw the system for their own demise, loss, purposefully, just to prove your point. Speaking like a real commie.

Again, quantify me: "fair", please.

That is a weird stuff what is just happening o.0

Huge price drop out of nothing in 1 minute. Any explanation?

I feel your pain.
Indeed, i can not keep up with the ignore button for all these 0 post troll accounts...so much noise. Praise the ignore button!

I have tried to picture a bear raid. Sounds like a cheap B horror movie

Good point! Actually, the most important summarize of the problem about this whole "block size debate". It is not about HD space, it is about "what?? you can halt and fork the whole thing while i am sleeping and next morning am on the worthless losing fork? WTF!".

Also, i do not understand people who are against it (well, other than the solid arguments against "tweeking to unknown").

Anyone who: runs a full node, mining for more than pocket change, and has potentially hundreds/thousands of dollars worth in BTC, can not realistically speak against a 100-200$ TB hard drive, which maybe full in 3 years, when blocks really fill up to 20mb (or 100mb, whatever). I run a full node on my home PC, my workplace laptop as well, and i would totally get a few TBs of HD space, just to continue to support the network - ON PRINCIPLE -, so i laugh at people who worry about cheap ass "maybe" costs - especially million dollar businesses.. cmon.

Running a full node is not for everyone , and it should not be for the technically illiterate (easy to corrupt and capture PCs, botnets and so on), but those who does it, do not really care about 1-2 more HD racks in the coming YEARS:). And yes, a poor guy in the sub-Sahara with shitty up/download can not run a full node. Who cares. Does who can will, and many people does it for goodwill, and rational self interest, it does not have to spread equally on the globe. As long as honest nodes/miners > non-honest ones, we win.

Just my 2 mBTCs.

Weird movement..it literally goes 180-230-160-22x in seconds up and down on Finex. Is that even real data??

Also, around 220 on Stamp and coinbase, and around 175 on finex, so something is fishy.

Lol at the rebuys.. 220, no 230, no 235, shit cant type fast enough

Someone is playing ^^

Indeed. http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/02/18/amazing-facts-and-figures-about-the-evolution-of-hard-disk-drives/

To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).

First, do not need to be rude Sir.
Second, i think we both agree how so many times people were sure something is not gonna work, and yet it did, You can not be serious to extrapolate 30 years of future scientific progress today...Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

I understand, and it is a valid standpoint. I am agnostic in this blocksize debate, precisely because none of us can tell the future. Not FUDding at all, it will be sorted out one way or another, for economical reasons (too much people has too much capital - time, knowledge, money - invested in). Also, living in the present and thinking about the future - in my view - are not exclusive options.

About the Moore's law and Intel CEO: the reason for slowing as i see is that market demand for rapid progression is slowing down - the average consumer PC/tablet/smart phone is "good enough" hardware to be ok already (office use, gaming, design, etc.), no pressure to upgrade every 1-2 years. So naturally, a hardware supplier will say "progress halted". If market demand would be huge for new computing capacity, they would spend way more on R&D, since they can profit on the new product, and Moore's law would hold up.
for example, bitcoin mining was the main drive force behind new chip fabrication development in the last 2-3 years, precisely because it could turn on profit!

That took awhile!

- Weird, every time am on vacation, there is a rally o.0

Yes, indeed, i did not expect that, amused beyond "wow". I dare not to hit sell button anymore in daytrade:) HODL!

Yeah i actually Loled. There are no coins to sell less than 1k till 390$. Overjoyed :-O

edit: got 2 phone calls from friends today whom i spoke about BTC at the summer. Now they read something about 50% return in 30 days, want in...ofc not when i told them at 220 range. Sheeples does Panic buys!

grats :-) and have a drink for 360 with me, as i am having right now^^

But, on a serious note - seriously trollfi, why/how are you a professor again.. - just NO. If only bitcoiners sell/buy from each other, than the price could not change/surge unless a 100 win the lottery at the same time - it is (and wealth creation in general) NOT a zero sum game, give up marxism already FFS; i guess he can not understand this :-)

There are real, "early laggard" people adopting, and new speculators (call it what you like) pour in fiat "money". I know anecdotes are not statistically relevant, but i personally have 2 friends calling me today (technically, yesterday, it is 2 AM here:-) ) about how to buy BTC. I am kinda of an evangelist, telling every non-comatose living person about BTC, and in the last month had several of them approach me - some after half a year of our "bitcoin speach" about "how to do BTC"; from collegaues, close friends. I do not really read/watch MSM, but here - alas in my surroundings - they slowly start to ask questions about BTC by out of genuine curiosity. So i guess interest IS rising, a lot of new faces in the local bitcoin beer event as well lately!

Is he? oh. I had him(her?) on ignore for like...ages. Only knew hes here by the quotes of you guys

Which reminds me...

Dear r0ach :-)

Am tired of waiting. Long time (since 2013 summer) hodler/bull/coder. First thing tomorrow is buy another, alas 3 BTC with useless Central European (non EUR) fiat cash at the BTM machine (luckily it is totally anonym, only QR code address needed, i can load onto paper wallets as well :-) ) cause my bank sux, and wiring takes several days. This is happening (imagine Romney flashing gifs )!

Here is another commodity with tremendous real life usage with pretty wild long term volatility (yet still the basis of our modern civilization):



I do not want to be a dick, but we had 1-1,5 years of relative price stability, it did not increased adaptation 10 folds or any x*n folds, as suggested by "against volatility" agents.

People answer to unforeseeable events (forced to react, such as a volcano erupts) IMO way greater than "steady slow growth". That is why bitcoin will have many more bubbles/crashes ahead of it till a theoretical equilibrium price achieved after MS adaptation. We are not machines -as humans - , "feelings"*, aka. irrational acting should be counted into the price movement.

*i list principles here as well. Like, no matter what "USD"/BTC we achieve, i will never sell my last few BTC for the next 10 years on principle. Costs aside. If enough people do the same, supply side withers.

Lottery. I do hodl for now* :-) And yes, there are new adopters (as they were for the last 6 years); for some reason people here can not imagine that others catch the BTC fewer as well, but they do. It is indeed growing exponentially (if you manage to "convert" only 2 guys near to you, than that is exponential!).

*actually am buying asap. I totally see this going out of control, if not in the short run, in the long run. I genuinely think we will NEVER gonna see the 2hundreds again in the long run (1-2 deep spikes might happen, unlikely). Like ever. Again.

Got a call 20 minutes ago from an old friend working for Citibank in Bahrain (remind you, it is 6:48 AM where i am -yes, still awake:). TLDR: "please get me some BTC, am just back from a conference about "blockchain" in Dubai". 'nuf said. 

Yes, last 7 were full (well, 731/972 full) https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/
Why?

These ARE the cheap coins!

Thought experiment: suppose we hit ATH again in the coming week(s?). Imagine the mass media hysteria, the increase in awareness through out the population who "heard about it" through friends etc.
This and the fact the ecosystem is in a much better shape (lots of options for on/off ramps, multiple choices of easily usable smart phone wallets for Joe, a lot more acceptance in commerce etc.)
could feed the demand side (and the FOMO) even much further above ATH prices ever.

Wild speculation? Interested in feedback!

2934 CNY. Soon 3000. That is 10x 300!!!!!!! 

Yes, that was my thought, the self feeding bubble  

Wow, what just happened. Insane movements, 5-10$ up and down in seconds! And the volume!

I would not be that surprised  . All my friends laughed at me about 400$ two days ago, and than..oups

The run up resumes   nice volume, late night pump! Oh wait, late night in Europe

edit: wow +20$ in 1 minute

I only trust in math, never people. Market affected by 50-100 guys salivating over graphs (including me ofc)? Obviously NOT. So, i agree with You, that is why every second poster here are on ignore (the lambs,trollfis, ignorants and such ofc:). It is still a fun place, and sometimes with interesting links, funny images/gifs shows up

They still don't get it. After almost 2 years of bear market, they can not comprehend what a bullish rally works like. Wanna see 500+ when i wake up :-)

WOW. WTf just happened?/ing:) Stamp shoot up 409$!

Also, 3 0 trans blocks by Antpool in a 2 mins.. weird

Can't go to bed. Too exciting!

Wow, $500 ain't so unrealistic after all. Hope FOMO starts tomorrow Eur/USA

That post is awesome!

People in those countries should read it!
Also in Hungary:

Date               Notation                          HUF/1 USD
2014-12-12      1 BTC =   85,519 HUF         247.165
2015-01-01      1 BTC =   81,935 HUF         261.14
2015-12-11      1 BTC = 131,347 HUF         288.965

That is also 60% increase in BTC price versus HUF, and 17% decrease in HUF vs USD in 1 year, which is mitigated if someone is in BTC. Sooo many people just park their money in the bank, or in some silly bond with a 3% /year interest rate, while loosing 10-20% of value on real purchase power.

http://www.likeforex.com/misc/historical-rates.php?f=BTC&t=HUF&y=2015&page=page%3D1

Actually, the USD price is up more by % than the CNY. Even thought CNY drops vs. the  USD. So, it is not a china pump. Someone with dollars just buying a few thousand coins. Volume seems low, because there is not any sells, just buys basically.

While i wrote this bitstamp rose another 4$ with 1k buy volume (almost only buying, no selling at all).

And 450 breached Good morning wood green dildos (if you are in EU).

Weird. Whos selling?? Why would any sane person would sell at this price, when almost sure, this will bounce back over 400 very soon?

Drama queen or not, he had some valid points - not necessary technically, but about the whole deadlock situation and censorship. Ofc, he should not go to the stupid mainstream media, who want the blood of bitcoin.
Still, he raised good points in his blog post (not in the NYT article!!!) about that there should NOT be a fee market, which is arising artificially, based on an old DoS prevention mechanism (which was always thought to
be temporary!). There is no fee market (or shouldn't be), this is system with a >6bil$ market cap, with less than 0,1% world population using it, and they ALREADY want to develop a blockage with transaction throughput?? Just count: doesn't matter, how high fees go - it is still impossible to do more than 4-7 ts/s!!! Fees do not solve this hardcap!! People will just not transact.

That's why the Harn "whistleblow" in MSM caused panic sell, many realized we MUST act NOW. Check out, 70% of big miners/ processing companies /exchanges already signed Bitcoin Classic https://bitcoinclassic.com/ after 2 days...

Or will they be just censored again? You mean 70-80% of the industry can be censored? :-)


EDIT: I was pretty much agnostic in this debate about blocksize so far, both sides has pros/cons. But the idea, that free market be abolished by a technical policy limit and give rise to "fee market" (means: "no, no, you are too Philippine to send cash home, we now have 10$ fee for the next 114 blocks, k thxbye), and "dissidents" must be censored, and "burned"- it is OS ffs, how the ***k they dared to censor?!? - so these two alone pushed me into "raise that blocksize" camp. And yes, i run a node, and no i don't care, will just buy a bigger HDD.

Agree with the MSM part, they don't care or know, which is funny btw . I do not mind "inner fights", or that it turned out to the public that we have those. In my POW, the whole point of a decentralized system, is that there can BE differing views! Am not here to judge, it may seems he hurted BTC for now, but we do not know the future, this might forced something which will be beneficial in the long run - if nothing else, cheap coins for me :-D. I focus on the 25% valid concern; those are still problems to be sold!

I do not want to be rude, or anything, but this is not a religion. There can be no heretics. And if a single person, with a single article can hurt "this much", maybe the system ain't that strong enough after all- yet?

Never understood why would anyone follow a "leader" here, and strangle the kitten of the "other tribe's warchief". This is so stone age, and explains why still no consensus, hint hint.

The media is corrupt for decades, so why the surprise? It doesn't matter how impenetrable the math is. It did not matter for the people in the age of Galileo either. In practice, only the subjective valuation of the people, which matters. Hm, i think i have just actually proved Your point :-D

This is a must read btw, it is surprising, how much present problems they have foreseen 5 years ago (and how satoshi and the others saying blocksize limit shall be abolished to let the network growth...)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1347.msg15366#msg15366



Mind the word of "generators", instead of miners back than!

Well, yes, the benevolent dictator problem. I slowly get to the conclusion, that the sheep is sheep exactly because it can not think for itself, nor can be reasoned with w/o "authority", hence we do need our own media. Or do not, and that is why we are the innovators/early adopters, and the "sheep" only gets in when he HAS to, not when he WANTS to!

Fascinating idea! 

Also, nothing stops the two group to team up after Classic forks to work together and implement the Core upgrades later into the now Classic chain. Especially after they realize they (core dev team) can be routed that easily, not like it is good -or bad-, just a fact. Consensus by the majority of the network, is not that how bitcoin developing supposedly?
So, why is that not an option? Because rage??

Some forget about the exchanges. Good luck trading/using "old" bitcoins, when all exchanges (and obviously instantly payment processors follow) only accept coins from the "forked", now main chain! Imagine how any major change would be implemented when user base/industry grows 10x of todays if it so hard after years of debate to do it today.

Exactly. Problem is i guess most here are not understanding or dismiss principal economics, and forget the one and only rule: the free market - if it is indeed free - always wins in the long run, and no politically driven central controlled engineering can go against the collective wisdom and need of the users. That is supposed to be the whole point of bitcoin.

If the market wants bigger and bigger space for transactions ON the blockchain in the future - most tend to forget how great things like asset registry, stocks, bonds, etc have been told will be residing ON the blockchain, not on some 3rd party, semi centralized pseudo solution mechanism- , developers* have no choice, than to give it. If they do not, and the expanding market sees that the utility/liquidity of the most prevalent version stopped serving the market, they leave, either to another implementation - like Classic seems to be right now -, or choose another solution. Creative destruction, the mechanism of free market evolution.

I do not understand how "smallblockers" or elitist (read Hayek's Fatal Conceit) forget this simple fact:
the utility hence the value of the network is solely based on the judgement of the USER - who might have no clue about the technical part, bandwidth, storage space - but the system is for them. It can not exist for the will of developers/miners. Without millions of users, whom voluntary agree to hold, move, invest economic value in the network, mining and development is meaningless. If core can not find a solution for the needs, someone else will, for there is economic reward for it!

Without ever increasing adoption, and new utility, like colored coins for example, the price will stop growing, and mining becomes ever increasingly useless - because the coinbase reward diminishes, fees can not go up - no new users who would compete for blockspace -, and network value diminishes**.

Just as r0ach and others tried to explain, and frankly, it gets frustrating after a while:
Economic reasons trump technical/engineering/ideological reasons in real life EVERY time, especially in an open, competitive market.

It does not matter, if someone against ever increasing blocks because "oh noes, decentralization!!!***", if the majority of the users value more blockspace, increased tx/s more than home PC run nodes, they will sacrifice the ability to do home PC run nodes for them; if the market reaches a consensus about an increase, it will happen, for the market sees it as a change to deliver greater value for the majority of the participants - that is essentially the consensus reaching mechanism, what satoshi described. There are no all knowing wise guys, who tell the peasants what is good for them (and that his tx is "spam". Such arrogant elitism!). That is whats happening with Bitcoin Classic in front of our very eyes, and yet some still do not get that the market always wins!

And yes, participation is voluntary in the network. If some do not like the decision of the majority****, leave, or stay and stop sulking, it does not help anyone.

*and anyone can be a developer, bitcoin is permissionless, hence "true bitcoin" has no meaning;
**if the total value of economic activity increases globally, and bitcoin is at a fixed non increasing capacity hence value, than the ratio of bitcoin value/global value gets smaller with time, towards zero;
***bitcoin is not exempt of economic principles. If it gets robust enough, it also has to operate on the rules of economic scaling. CPU mining vanished as network value went up, same will happen with cheap PC run nodes, it is inevitable.
****this is not democracy, this is meritocracy. Build up 30% hashpower, or buy a million BTC, than you can influence the consensus greater. Stop the culture marxist bullshit about "all ideas are equally valid, i do not like yours, so everything must stop". They are clearly not, and that is good. More risk taking investment (knowledge, resources, service) equals more "votes".

None said we want zero fees. You can not want to have mutually exclusive things like no fees and security at the same time. Any reasonable person knows this. So this argument is flawed.

I use banks because i HAVE to. Am legally forced, i can not get my salary in cash, or travel with cash, or buy a house. Legal tender is the logical opposite of free market currency.

IF bitcoin gets mainstream, integrated into world commerce you seriously think multinationals/tech companies/universities etc. won't run databases, mining centers, with their own copy of the blockchain, and can not organize or pay gladly for the upkeep of the network in change to the reduced overhead and increased (global) market reach thanks to bitcoin?

You guys a bit naive, if you want to go mainstream (read, billion users, total industries), and keep the scoutboy level system structure at the same time. One is not going to happen.

Thanks for reading it :-)

You mean the 3rd world brown poor people with financially and politically oppressive regimes like the other 6 billion who lives from <10 dollars a day, and so will never can use btc and earn financial freedom with "only a couple dollars tx fee, which costs more than the actual grocery".

Or only the western white type of poor people?

Now that i think about it, we might never need a fee market. If bitcoin - the network - became an integral part of international value exchange aka trade, i see bitcoin mining as an auxiliary corporate department in every major commercial hubs. It worth the time to explore this idea.

The incentive here would not be direct BTC income through fees anymore, but the upkeep of an external reward of a scalable, secure and decentralized network of agreements.

That is not what i said. There still will be fee, but it won't be the main factor in constraining tx output. Fee today is what you (and btw was intended as by satoshi) said exactly: spam prevention. Not to mention, if 1 block reaches 1000MB, that is around 250,000 tx x 0,0001 fee, which is 2,5 BTC per block. You can either raise the number of tx/block, or cost of fee /tx, or both to reach mining income. Why you speculate that only fee cost/tx can go up, not tx/block as well to pay miners?

Why would be only 5-10, or only 500 nodes? There is no factual data to support that claim at all. There are more than 6000 nodes today, run by voluntaries. Why those with a few hundred bucks and good connection won't run one in the future, especially as we can speculate hardware keeps getting better and cheaper? Who thought we will streaming HD+ videos today for giggles?

Again, no experimental data available to argue there will be less nodes in the future if we scale up the network - which is logically contradicting, 100x more users would suggest 100x potential node runners. FUD speculation.

Define. You mean 1 BTC (100,000,000 satoshis) will be too expensive, or downloading a wallet and transact in the Bitcoin network will be unavailable for "poor people"?
And how exactly will it grow big, without "most of middle class" participate in it to grow? Or you hypotise that only dollar millionaries are buying/holding bitcoin today? How exactly that works out in your mind? Seriously..

Everyone can, and yet, they don't. Also, this isn't USSR, everyone can not have the same capacities, yet 100 million people have 1GB/sec connection with nTB storage capacity today, so we have a lot of room to improve. Also, it might cost 6 digits money to run a datacenter TODAY. In ten years, it easily could be 3-4 digits, as it happened multiple times before.

You can not selectively extrapolate present->future data pairs: if p2p client requirements increase 100x fold in the future you also have to speculate future capacity increases/ cost decreases as well!

Of course, i agree that scaling optimally should follow the speed of capacity increase, aka technical constrains on economy of scale. The point i disagree is that the technical side also will and is increasing, making it possible to scale up, for example blocksize right now.

Exactly, and if you do a percentage count. to move like 200$ which can not be said dust, that is a 2,7%+ fee, something like credit cards. So whats the point? :-)

For a hundred bucks it goes up to 5,4%+ which is nearing western union level.

+1

I tried to explain this exact point many times before. Some pretend here that suddenly hardware will not increase anymore in the next 10 years, and we are all doomed because 60GB+ blockchain. I remember installing programs from 10+ floppy disks, and am only in my early 30s. My cell phone is stronger than university computers were ~15 years ago.

This. They think scarcity alone will bring value (price appreciation) if it is done decentralized. Oblivious to the fact that without the utility of being a p2p payment system with very broad (read: millions can use it simultaneously) access (read: low fees, not no fees!), on the network itself brings most part of the value, not scarcity - we want to use it for trade, so because it is secure (decentralization is part of security, not utility), through this utility it gains economic value, therefore continuing securing it brings income, competitive mining occurs, security rises, we trust it even more etc.. This is a self reinforcing scenario, IF, and only if we keep in mind, that the end is to have a value exchange network, not a digital collectible, without economic action. This is what free market money after all, the value is given only by how much economic activity it makes possible (money trade>> barter trade), aka it's utility, not by the physical properties themselves - those are just features, enforcing the "mass illusion"!

Once again, let me stress it:
For economic purposes, it does not really that important to have this security model, the consensus mechanism (longest chain rules all) is only there to skip the need for trusted parties, hence making value exchange smoother and cheaper - by reducing transaction and maintenance costs (and by accident making it permisionless, and voluntary!).
Network decentralization is a feature, to reach value exchange without 3rd parties, not an end in itself. The point is:

"   A  purely   peer-to-peer   version   of   electronic   cash   would   allow   online
payments   to   be   sent   directly   from   one   party   to   another   without   going   through   a
financial institution"

Core people might forgot this, but PoW mining, decentralization, OS, and p2p are only means to that end: a trustless payment system.

The genius part of Bitcoin is that is more than an engineering work, the design understands basic economic and psychological principles (game theory), and unite them in an environment, where everyone can join voluntary.

Somehow the economic views get forgotten more and more when we think about what bitcoin is/should be. We just can not take parts (not code, but working principles) out of this equation based on speculation or ideology, or wishes, or fears, without endangering the whole.

He wasn't using Uber as a technological thing. He was saying that free market has surprising and innovative ways to try reaching an equilibrium in supply/demand. Hes example was the number of taxis is a fixed supply constrain, than Uber came and increased the supply out of nowhere..but some can not think out of the box. Way too many one dimensional thinker here to grasp anything outside "blocksize and fees" arguments.

wow, 400$ wall getting eaten in seconds o.0

Meanwhile, 8 full blocks in last hour, and 8500+ tx waiting to be included. Just saying.

https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/

It is fascinating, that anyone seriously thinking we are going to stay at 1/2/4 etc MB blockchain size.

The arguments fearing node centralization are laughable (like everyone back in 2010 - incl. Satoshi - knew). Bitcoin has like minimum a million users with PCs capable to run a node today, yet, less than 1% choose to run a node (the numbers may be waaay worse than that, like 5k "node runners" out of 5million users/holders).

Increasing the blocksize, lets say to 20 MB won't matter regarding the broadcast speed, mempool load, HDD space for the average user to run/not run a node - because they do not do it today, not even with 1MB/ avg. 10 min. They won't change a thing.

Today, if someone runs a node (or more than one) would do it even with 20 MB limits (many would do with way more hardware constrains, would even pay for it - like i do - just out of principle).
It is not technical properties, which are constrain node running, it is knowledge/care.

Does anyone with "smalblock" sentiment really thinks Bitcoin can growth even to 1% of today's financial network transaction volume without scaling the blockchain size to terrabytes in the next 5 years?

"The Blockchain" can bring so much utility besides money transactions! And that is exactly what it needs to be - and what most of us were fascinated about, land/property registry, ownership titles, escrow in an uncheatable global ledger, so no, not a settlement layer. "IT IS ON THE BLOCKCHAIN" should be a proverb for "as final as set in stone"- in the 10/100k$ area, because the account units can do more than coffee buys, yet, those daily 100,000 "coffee buys" will be the big thing to bring the first 1 billionth user. The average Joes, who so many look down here, yet, they are 95% of the population. Bitcoin needs them, we can not have a global financial system without the global....

I can not grasp, how experienced - and certainly well meaning, and i am saying this honestly and respectuflly - bitcoiners miss this point, which is: if blockchain can satisfy more than pure value transaction in its p2p concept, it will magnify in value/unit wise, which is all what WE want.

Yes, and no

Yes, it is an incentives machine for the 99,8%. Hence they do not run nodes, there is no incentive (material) to run one, unless they have serious investments (lots of BTCs), so a healthy network is in their best interest - or we run it on principle, even if it is in the negative. That is why i say, that if we reach even 1% of global financial volume, thousands of merchants, corporations, server farms, miner conglomerates will run nodes, just to be able to check those 10k payments/minute coming from the global customer base, since they CAN, and can not, or want to rely on 3rd parties  -that is the whole point!

That is the exact reason i laugh at smallblockers: they still pretend that a global financial computer network should and can be done by average Joes who can barely install apps safely to their mobile phones.

In the future -just as Satoshi said - it will either be server farm, corporations, merchants, universities, economics research institutes, wealthy individuals who are going to run nodes, or none of us ("there will be either huge transaction volume, or none").

Thank You, i am trying to explain this for months, you worded it perfectly! Technical mumbo-jumbo limits << my incentive to not lose all my BTC value

Also, i have never ever seen a scientific, measurable, technical, economical, psychological research/prognosis with hard data and testing about what a limit increase would ACTUALLY do to decentralization - i bet all the miner pools and their thousands of contributors would still run a node, the node hardware can not possibly be more expensive than 0,01% of the mining costs...

As a scientist i am basically agnostic in the matter, but i see no real life data showing doom is coming with greater (much greater than 2MB in the long run) blocks.

But, i see - and everyone with common sense - the math, that not increasing in several magnitudes in blocksize in the future is mathematically//physically hindering the growing of the network before we hit that sweetspot of "global network effect".

Do not get me wrong. I am a die hard capitalist :-) Actually, i am following the self-interested altruism thought school. Which bitcoin shoots perfectly. I do not run nodes because i am "nice". I run it because i have a vested interest in the network's success and survival, for my own selfish goals. And what Adam said, there would be alas 5000 more who would do the same in hours if they would feel their money is in trouble.

That is why, in the future, if we expand this beautiful network to 100millions, 10 and 10 thousands of corporations will run a node, more than today. But, first we need to get there, by let in 100x more economic value/block happening on the blockchain. I hope you understand.

Miner fees.

It is basic math, fees will only sustain mining if either:
1. 1 BTC will worth so much, that even fractions (or around today's fee) of it will bring profit;
2. By the time coinbase transaction will drop below fees volume (not going to happen till at least 8-12 years -12,5/6,25/3,125/1,5625), will be in equilibrium+1n btc/$ of mining cost.

For both of these, we need way more transaction/block than today - so the network utility will rise the btc/$ value -, but only need those in 8+years. In a natural, healthy market, txs fee+coinbase reward should always profit no less or more than the average profit of any other (real) free market investement/industry on the globe on the mid/long run. Not like we have a free market on the globe...just watch those negative interest rates..

No. By definition, it can not be. HF can only happen if 90%+ thinks it is the way to go. Which makes it uncontentious by default.

That reminds me, i got a bit frustrated in another post about the ignorance how many can not fathom something like even 10k$/btc, like EVER (lol) -i wonder what they are doing here than - and replied this:

Agree. I start to realize, that most people posting mindless stuff around the forum (or r/Bitcoin) never even bothered to read/understand the White Paper - and surprisingly, this beloved Wall Observer is one of the best posting crowd (sic) around here, well except for the Technical Discussion part :-) . And they call themselves "investors".

Nor the "investors" ever visited a meet up/conference/ in person/online, watched a bitcoin tutorial like the Blackboard series, listened to a podcast like LetsTalkBTC, amused by an awesome Andreas speech, or even has any background knowledge about economics, finance, or the history of STEM.

Weird, so many will (not) telling the sad story to their grandchildren about the bitcoins he sold at 600$ back in 40 years ago, never could afford to buy back, while it could buy them something like an island for every offspring in the future today...

I have no idea. As none else has, if they do they lie :-) Best to not be wrong is not give predictions! But i enjoy the subject, so here are a few thoughts, i try to be TLDR;

If You saw that graph from my post, you have seen the potential wealth to growth "from". I can only say what Satoshi said about the 20 years volume (either HUGE, or zero), and volume derives from utility, and utility is a strong indicator of value in any asset class (or currency if that matters). As i have said in my angry rant, a 10.000$/BTC would be still less than 200 billion usd market cap today, which is laughably still nothing, a small mid-east country's yearly GDP with 5 million population, trading effectively raw cotton and some minerals. Nothing.

My point is: 99,9% of the populace could not imagine any useful mass usage in the first DECADE of their time for electricity/combustion engine/computers/internet, and see how most of us would literally die without them today.

To answer your question :-)

I can only say a ratio of BTC versus other store of value assets; i call it the lag of knowledge spread: mass psychosis fueled by both media and daily p2p interactions, greed, FOMO, sudden surge in "i should check this bitcoin thing out" will multiply adoption (hodlers and day-to-day users) by 100-1000 folds by 2020-2025. That is my prediction based on every other similar technology, minus the 2 important facts that: bitcoin can be money, and money is 2nd only to sex for "things worth killing for"; and the physical infrastructure is already layed down - oh and also, concurring currencies are a zero sum system. I mean, people can only have one of these combinations of any two currency with a finite purchasing power:
0-100, anything between 1-99, and 100-0, so when the perceived equilibrium is breached, it is an avalanche effect for the one below the threshold, for none wants to remain in the "dying" currency). From today's 0,004% M2 we should reach up to 0,4%-4% realistically in 10 years.

 It does not necessarily means 100-1000x price increase ( i would say more, because it is a self reinforcing, exponentially (cost= N, benefit=N square) increasing network effect, but we must also count in non mathematical elements, like politics, perceptions,  which are the exact opposites of economic rationality.

edit: that meant to be 100-1000, but a bit too much whine (the red liquid one, not the angry:)

:-D

Well, with enough 500$ sold bitcoins, they might afford http://www.webmd.com/infertility-and-reproduction/features/womb-rent-surrogate-mothers-india

(12,000$ for a baby from your own DNA)

Yes, and yes, for both of you Btw, thats the chart i was looking for/based my raw calculation on, and thx for the original quote as well Fakhoury!

People never do want you want them to do I was telling my dearest, old friend to postpone a house renovation last year, and get into BTC ffs. He did the renovation, spent the money. He would have basically get it for free this summer, with 240usd back than - 450 usd btc today, but hey, his loss.

Everyone in my social circle knows about bitcoin, i constantly bombard them with it:-) Yet, to this day, after 3 years of "harassing" none of my family/friends/employees bought a single satoshi. This is still innovator phase, not even "early adopters". But i know people enough, and they will TOTALLY FOMO with red eyed greed once we surpass the 1200$ ATH again, imagine the media frenzy and hysteria, like headless chickens. Because, as we know, "smart ones" buy the uptrend, and sell the downtrend. That is why i will retire at the age of 35-40, and they will work till their death

edit: btw dear central bank :-D you are right, but do not forget, that in international export-import trade payment is a messed/fucked up s**t. Just imagine a Brazilian exporter asking bitcoin payment instead of their 20%+ inflating currency, from, like Europe, in EUR, which lost ~10% value vs USD in 2015. Both parties come out better, way less overhead, the 0-24 exchanges minimize arbitrage loss, if they use/hold BTC for the production/sales payments. They just do not know it yet. But, imagine if a few (i mean thousands) manufacturers, importers realize this, after being so blind, they will like "oh, i shall demand btc for my supply line, it would increase my margin way above market average!".

Like some businesses, i had to actually told them, that credit card payment is not "profit for them", if the tx costs for card payments is higher than their avg. marginal profit rate, which is common in many places. (A grocery shop paid 2,2% aggregated card fees, and they have a net profit rate of >2%. "But people spend more with CC," said the owner. I said, "no, people make more loss for you with CC payments, it is worse than not buying anything". She did not understand.)

That is why i think the next big wave will be institutions, and international businesses, and not "Joes". Joes will be the 3rd wave!

I am mostly* a follower of the Austrian economic thought, so whatever the digits are now, they are the digits right now. The market - the sum of all of the participants - is what matters. Since value is subjective, hence a mirage, it does not matter what i think, or people with real talents :-) think, if the other 99,9999% does not care, we can s*** up the coins to our...well it is digital, so we can not, but you get the picture :-D

While those who understand why Bitcoin is a paradigm shift in the social construct (hierarchical, pyramid like topography versus anarcho-capitalist, flat and voluntary - so to speak spontaneous order), the overwhelming majority prefers the "matrix of status quo" of today. Why?

1. Thinking is hard. It is, the brain can use up to 40% of calories (given that outside temperature is near body levels) taken, so it is an evolutionary instinct to act "non conscious",
2. Risk aversion /Failure aversion. It is just basic human nature, evolution taught us not to "rock the boat", for it is high risk/high reward, yet too much cortisol** (stress hormone),
3. Herd mentality: to be honest, most of the populace act as their long term female companion dictates, aka, peaceful civilizations tend to be show higher mammalian herd tendencies, like socialism - until it collapses, and rampant and uncontrolled fight began for status and power between males,
4. The need for a pastor; the herd will follow any leader who has been showing power in the past. See herd mentality, and historical figures inspiring unimaginable acts from "ordinary people".

The point is, IMHO, as ECB said before, the "marketing", human psyche has more to do with bitcoin's success than any technical detail. Do anyone has the illusion, that Mrs. Widow at the age 67, or Mr. Accountant in the cubicle knows about, or will EVER comprehend the blocksize debate? No, they will only adopt bitcoin, when they have so huge and obvious loss in comfort/utility/told by their gossip tabloid, in everyday financial interaction, that remaining in the old construct of hierarchical, top-down, command economy collapses. That is okay, they took zero effort, zero risk, so why would evolution reward them with a prize? They will not be rich, but they can continue to function in an otherwise unsustainable economic system of the today's debt based madness.

Before that, most millennials, X-gen, and the likes of us will stack up bitcoins not for everyday use by necessity, but for hardcore, sweet greedy, speculative "easy life, early retirement" life, IF we are right, i might add, but i have 0 doubts, this is math after all :-P


*I say mostly, because phenomenons evolve, and there is no absolute perfect "school of thought" in my mind.
** For the really hardcore people. this is an adequate summary of cortisol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cortisol, TLDR; stress induce adrenaline production - "running from lion" - the body interprets this as a danger for life, and with adrenaline, cortisol is bound to be produced to counter balance it; decreases several key functions in response, like your immune system (IFN - interferon gamma globulin level reduced, which is kind of a natural microbe killer), by reducing B-cell response, reduced wound healing through http://www.psyneuen-journal.com/article/S0306-4530%2803%2900144-6/abstract, also messes with your glucose levels (omg am fat!). Read MFs!

Still, no "complete picture", i am just extrapolating from my own knowledge/experience. But, short "answers" (more like speculations):

1. While the invention, or, rather the realization of how to run a trustless recorded timestamp server through decentralized consensus through PoW aka blockchain already made it into the public, and proved to be the most resilient application run by more than 1 computer at the same time connected to the internet, "the Satoshi" only made a possibility, not a certainty, not a definitive. Alas, the genie is out of the bottle, so to speak. That, and Heisenberg (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle which, apparently seems to work in the macro world as well, see https://www.ted.com/talks/jim_al_khalili_how_quantum_biology_might_explain_life_s_biggest_questions), is why it is "IF", despite math. :-)

2. There is a great speech, i can't recall which one, from Andreas Antonopoulos, where he discusses this matter (find it on youtube, either Prague, or Zürich?). The leading sentence is: "i have seen no global governmental consensus on ANYTHING" (not even on climate change, despite it might kill us all, as he adds). Or, you can learn about what happened, when the politburo banned the holding and trading of USD in the Soviet Union in the 70/80s- hint, it became the no.1 bribing instrument for citizens:-)

3. That question alone would require, 600 pages, in a book (i am working on it :-D) ). After i have spent, like 2-3 nights, whisky, patience and curiosity - as many before me - that STEM knowledge is an exponential curve, and not since the 60's, but since BC. 500- alas. Hence, the probability to foresee anything tech related is bound to diminishing returns - an inverse exponential curve , means to predict the correct path to predict future improvements shrinks exponentially.

With this in my mind, if Bitcoin, the protocol is still up and running in just 5 years, say 2020-2021, it might already have so alien applications, like an additional layer, that none of us can think off right now, delivering such humongous utility to users, that would be laughed at today, but will worth enormous economic value per entry units (=btc). Just like it was unfathomable to say video conference for FREE, in 1992's internet. Bitcoin, the network is nothing more than internet, it is like permissionless, uncensorable packet transfer from A to B IP address , but this one is also a registering public ledger of packets going from A to B, so we can tie value, because everyone has to acknowledge that we "have" that value, by the mechanisms of the blockchain.

If bitcoin is still below 5000$ in 10 years - i totally dear to say 5 years  ! - it has failed (game over). Disruptive technological innovations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation follow a well established pattern - by the spread among "average people", not in an academic manner. If Bitcoin, the internet solution to replace 3rd party trust, and bitcoin the token it uses as a societal tool as money (network security incentive, but forget that for a moment), which is obviously mostly a speculative asset tool today(!), fulfils the path of exponential growth* of technological instrument's advance in the past, it can not be valued below 5000$ of today's dollar worth in 2020.

That would mean it does not follow the historical innovation's model.



Just think about the number of "users/adopters". In 2009, bitcoin had like 1-10?. In 2010, maybe a few hundred. In 2011, a few thousands, and so on, 10x-100x till around 2013-2014, when it seemingly slowed down from the 100x+, but, and a BIG but, folks with money and vision (both for "omg, the humanity!, and greed) started to invest in it - in the network architecture in itself, not in the token. From than on, since the infrastructure started to be laid down, bitcoin was "immune" to death. No investors would ever let it go down to zero after they have just paid n x 10 million dollars to lay the railroad. They would have or did (?) rather buy up all newly minted/quitting coins, just to keep their investment alive. That is one of the reasons, IMO that bitcoin can not go to zero, or to double digits anymore (>200$?), never. Period.

To be what it promises, and those things we can not imagine yet, bitcoin needs a LOT more "average Joe" users, " Joe" business users (small-medium enterprises). If the remaining 5-10 years can not draw these 100-1000x of today's users, than bitcoin will most likely fail, because of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations.

If we accept this path as an approximation - we should not necessarily - than from today's ~450 USD/BTC price we can calculate that a bitcoin can not be below 5000 USD/BTC in 10 years. The math does not compute, 100x-1000x users, new, untold/unimagined valuable usages must make the "token" units more valuable.


*Think about exponential growth. We already know how the math in epidemiology works out in a new pathogenic since the 1500's in an unimmunized populace, like the North American natives vs. European invaders (smallpox, the common cold). By the way, that is just many of the one reasons why the greatest medical/governmental frauds of the 20th century of HEP-C/HIV=AIDS(yes, i stand by it!!)/HPV cancer variants are hoaxes, logical fallacies, even by simple mathematical reasoning, and used only for controlling the populace by fear and selling overpriced pills...)

That was not my point, i have just mentioned those mainstream healthcare misunderstandings as an example (factually proven, and easy to check by the simple "follow the money" tactic) as a demonstration for mathematical rules for a scientific fact-check. I am not a supporter of any collectivist by race/religion based conspiracy. There are twisted/naive people. There is no collective, only "evil" (violent, immoral) individuals.

There was a kind of meh interlude in Eurovision 2nd semi-final live just an hour ago. They used a "funny sketch" saying something like this in the sketch: "..it costed around 3 billion dollars back than, which is about 500k bitcoins today.." (actually not accurate, but that is not the point :-P).

LOL. Mainstreaming slowly :-)))

Check it out^^

This is insane!

I do not get this "CNY devauled" story. It lost less than 2% in the last 4 weeks vs. the USD, and less than 0,5% since 17th of May. I do not see any devaluation here, http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCNY:CUR,
which would mean either some big player(s)/mania, schoolgirls buying up, or i missed something else from China. Also, that would not explain why EUR/USD buyers will follow a ~19%+ buy in. I mean, the sell side is really out of coins, ~1,500 btc to 600$ on Bitstamp (from 513$)...

Great sum up of this whole DAO mess. Not even talking about the technical impossibilities (like, human factor, speculation on ETH price more than actual projects, information asymmetry regarding proposals, incentives of YES/NO votes, attack vectors, etc...), and the big question: "so, we gonna build cars, or flip burgers from this money or what? And who?"....

Still, this rise can not be from ETH "selling", way to big for that (and it isn't crushnig, ~10-15% in two days max).

Ring up the Tooth Fairy :-D

I usually do not go into price predictions, but Many underestimate the media hype, FOMO. I have been watching this show, and was like "wow, it still did not correct. It got higher. 8 (sleep) hours later: wow, 500+".

This is not the usual thing, something is going on, and it frustrates me to great length, that i can't find a definitive reason!!

Also, the volume is huge(!), so many weaklings sold (lol), and i can see exchanges are out of coins to sell :-) So, >40 days halving, 1000$ not looking so unreal.

I WAS ok with the idea of ethereum, well, as an interesting concept, and idea (and not a "bitcoin 2.0 currency as the main goal for the g0ldz"). But.
That ended after the "IPO" of the first ether batch sale (sale? more like give us your bitcoins for this would be, thing) - premined presaled of an obvious speculator scamcoin 16000% return in 3-6 months bullshit -, with arbitrary, non defined, "will see in the future" monetary policy (?), like, what are the consensus rules are for new coins?

Bitcoin had a fixed, well known, open, obvious  - still unchanged - monetary policy on day 1 - should i say day 0? Oh, Genesis block it is
Than this PoS ethereum mutation idea, with a combined premine and presale before it is known?? So not cool.

THAN it started this "bitcoin 2.0, so smart contract, much DAO*".

* yeey, we can make companies without state provisioned governance, which is a great concept, but without any social precedent or theory behind it how it actually will solve: clear business plans, or expertise, and/or accountable management goals and/or actual PEOPLE who grab that fukin' hammer and hit nails, but that is okay, because... we can always opt out our DAO-ether for bitcoin  (except if we actually participate in a vote with YES/NO, cause than we are fucked)!"

The interesting parts will be available in bitcoin as well on any sidechains/LN solution in a few years, when the market in REAL LIFE actually want to start micro transactions to turn on water heaters for airbnb style renting.
 
This whole shared computing (other than unnecessary and technically unfeasible in scale btw..) and DAO concept is waaaay premature/unnecessary, like a baby born on -46 months. IT can not fix some physical problems like: how to network secure properly a guy digging a hole, and fixing that plumbing toilet waste. Oracle/Ghost that

TLDR; so even if the automated application running environment fueled by the token of ether provided by it's network in theory is nice, and interesting, it mutated into a wannabe bitcoin, without any of the elegant simplicity and scalability - by adding additional layers on it - of the Bitcoin network.

"CHINA was right to turn on the credit taps to prop up growth after the global financial crisis."

Right at the first sentence, they fail :-D Love Keynesian/statism interventionist stupidity of mainstream economists.

Oh, other than that yeah, i agree. China will buy more coins!

I have watched the video here https://lightning.network/ and read (partially) the white paper, and if these guys make it work, it will be HUGE! Basically, solving scaling once and forever, and usage for average users. Very bullish ideas for bitcoin as the network and currency in that presentation, and the best part, is that it is still using bitcoin as the core token, so not an altcoin implementation!

Very promising, i encourage you guys to watch that ~52 mins, it made me so excited and bullish - and buying a few more coins :-)

You know what to do...

Exactly. Network effect > technicalities*. Bitcoin will integrate and scale up to any useful "altcoin" tech, simply because 90%+ of the investment (both $ wise and knowledge wise(!)) had been already dedicated to the Bitcoin network. Network effect also says, that it does not make sense to start over learning the workings/coding of a system just because it is better at release, it takes way too much work. It is more reasonable to upgrade/tweek the most used system atm.

Just check out that lighting network solution (Thunder), which can solve the payment channel scaling problem (so blocksize is a smooth problem, and the currency usage won't be clogged by it). Or the fact that Bitcoin is a dumb network, which is actually good - the internet is build on a very dumb package routing network as well, and see what it made available!. The fact that etherium is Turing-complete is actually a really hard concrete wall in layer introduction!


* the people factor means more than technical facts. There a few (ten?)thousand ppl on Earth, who understands cryptos by a technical standpoint, and there are billions, who could/can/would use it, and the one which is sorta became to be recognized after 7 years is bitcoin only, and the merchant - day-to-day usage - is only existing for bitcoin as well. We do not need perfect, just "good enough"* by A.M.A

Why people talk about "cost of production"? Blocks are 10 min average in the long run, no matter if 2 laptop CPUs, or 100k exahash does the computation, there is no real "cost element" for the protocol to work.

Mining isn't "production". Just because the network needed a way to gradually release new available units to incentivize SECURITY of itself through the Proof of Work consensus, the new units are not the goal of mining. Also, bitcoin units are not "used up" when transacted, every bitcoin introduced in a coinbase transaction is "immortal". Even "lost privatkey" coins, they will just sit in their address for eternity.

This whole concept of "production cost must equal/below product value" is fishy, failed labor theoryof value thinking, marxist bs, totally debunked and failing basic logic since 100+ years.

It does not matter from a utility point of view if there are max 21mil, or a single bitcoin, since it can be divided up to infinitely to smaller sub units, there is no real "production" - it is more like discovery, since all future bitcoins are already algorithmically guaranteed to exist, they just need to be "unlocked", if you must use a describing word.

It is a necessary human psychological trick in play to give out "new coins", to make mining happening, which gives security for the network, which gives decentralized trust to build up, which gives value to the units for users, which prompts more security through more miners going for the coins...you get the point. BUT the new coins will have the same value as old, cpu mined ones, no matter how much cost got sinked in asic farms!!!

In another, new viewpoint, and clarification:
The supply will not be smaller on the halvening at all (existing coins will still exist after it), the additional new unit generation TIME will increase by 2 (the same 25 new coins will be generated in ~20 min average instead of 10mins)! So given a same demand has to wait 2x the time to get access in the network (as UTXOs), or decide to pay the extra value for "frontrunning the queue". Depending on the time preference of the market actor, it is a self fulfilling prophecy which might trigger a run up in price.

Also, since the difficulty is dynamic and adapts to make coin release constant through time, it means that production can never be unprofitable in the long run, as the unprofitable miners leave the race, more new coins will be distributed for the remaining miners, hence mining profit% tends to be constant in the long run for every miner still in race, hence "production cost" can not have influence on coin value (and never had, as long as minimum security levels are reached).

Movement in hash rate is either a technical (hardware, electricity prices, other costs like cooling in northern ares, etc) sign, or fueled by bitcoin value increase, NOT the other way around!

That is labor theory of value thinking what you are saying, if you think that as a macroeconomic phenomenon: "The cost of production does need to below retail price, otherwise you're losing money"

A whole industry can only be "unprofitable" if they produce mud pies*. If i am losing money, that means i made a bad speculation about future demand, and i oversupplied the market, AND my production costs are greater than the guy next to me. Not that the market does not appreciate my precious product and too evil to buy it from me for the "fair price". I either go bankrupt hence reducing the supply on the market totallity or make demand for my product.

How could the definition of value be different on the production side, and on the consumer side? Price (cost) is just the numerical expression in some unit of account of the value of anything that can act as an economic good.

*mud pies, as anything that clearly has diminishing demand, or below niche application, yet mass produced to nothingness. Like whats going on in the world right now, with 0% interest money founding production capacities producing shit that has no real market, unless it is bought with borrowed money as well --> mega super world debt crisis.

That is what i am trying to tell :-)

It is just so many hooked up with this myth that mining costs somehow influence bitcoin prices. They are not.

Good morning:)

Thanks, i have read it like a year ago, it is a fascinating read(!), i think i even linked it somewhere in a reply long ago. Still, i think Szabo's whole point is that money is an abstraction, a creation of the human mind for "...to solve problems of cooperation that other animals cannot.." and cryptos are the ultimate proof, that this abstraction can exist purely as information, completely detached from the physical form.

That is precisely why i am saying that it can not have a traditional production cost, because it is pure information, a number only - actually, more like an entropic state.

The empirical evidence is this: buyers/sellers on the market does not care, how much computing went to the same bitcoin units of 2010, or 2016, 1 bitcoin= 1 bitcoin, regardless of electricity burned to "compute" it - as i have written here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg15108324#msg15108324, there is no production, every new block will enable a new UTXO in the coinbase transaction, DESPITE the computational power used - the same with 1 laptop humming on the desk, or a gigantic asic farm factory, 1 block will release the same amount of BTC/as defined by the blockheight as unspent transaction output.

Saying that "production costs" - whatever that would mean to generate a random number basically - reflecting in the market value of BTC is saying people are checking price tags in a supermarket by calculating how much it cost the producer to make a bottle of milk. They do not care. They will check the competing MARGINAL UTILITY of the goods satisfying their needs, they could not care - or has the ability to calculate - about production costs.

Same with bitcoin. Does anyone care, if that bitcoin was mined with 100 Ghash/sec machine, or 1,4 Exahash/sec gigafarm? Does that by itself make bitcoin more $value in the open market? It does not.

And that is where the problem lies. No sane investor will start making hula hoops BEFORE making a gross calculation about demand!!!!! That is a paramount of importance for my argument, that you can not separate production (supply) from consumption (demand), not even in theory. The whole point of production in the end is satisfying needs, profit is just an incentive to do it the most efficient way (that is why market economy leads to abundance, and socialist planning leads to shortages and lines).

So in your example, not necessarily both of us would go bankrupt, because if i shut my factory down, the gross supply of hulas going down, and may or may not find a new marginal utility among the buyers (aka, it increases in price/unit, till it reaches 5$, or not, still depends on the demand. But that is what marketing is for, to create "surplus demand"!).

The same as two bakeries next to each other: if all equals* (price/unit of bread, quality, opening hours, etc), and the total supply of the two bakery is S, but demand is S-n, than one of those bakers will go bankrupt, but that does not mean that making bread is unprofitable. It just means that too many investor resource used up on that particular good at that particular space/time.

We can denominate costs in $. Value is subjective, but of course can be given an average $ rate/time continuum (which can be 1 second or 10 years). Kinda of like this: i value that good for x, we denominate it in price. The seller wants x+c+n, lets say x+c is the total cost of his production, and n is the value he wants to acquire from the whole process of making the good. Now, i can either rearrange my valuation of the good, and pay the higher price (which is my cost side) of x+c+n, but the utility of the good for me stayed x. The price i pay is my cost, the good i get for it is the value the good represents to me(!), price is an average of market discovery, value is totally arbitrary/subjective.

*btw, never anything equals, there are no perfectly equal goods, producers, decisions, there is information asymmetry in physics which forbids that uniformity even in theory (my factory cannot occupy the same space/time as yours, i can not use the same materials as you do, i can not employ the same employees, etc.).

Yes, thank you, that is my point. Hmm never thought about explaining this way, "bitcoin isn't milk" :-D

Appealing to authority is a really funny attempt on a bitcoin forum...even Satoshi was wrong on many things, and Bitcoin is so new, that there is literally no theory of explaining how it fits into the traditional theory (it does not). Btw, the quote says it clearly: "...generation effort is rapidly increasing, suggesting people are estimating the present value to be higher than the current cost of production".

Value/BTC drives up mining expenditure, not the other way around. It is speculation on future market value, that triggers buying asic farms (sinking capital), which they will not turn off. 10% loss is better than 100% loss.

How exactly the "production" of bitcoin can slow down, when the network automatically adjusts to keep the "production" exactly the same average of 10 mins/block??? That is the whole point of the dynamic adjustment, that you can NOT increase or decrease coin generation in the long time/large scale, no matter how many trillion-billion-fillion hashes you add.

We could mine the same coins with 2 laptops. Or we could mine them with turning the Moon into a gigantic ASIC (cooling is kinda cheap in space). They would generate the same amount of coins after the 1st difficulty adjustment.

Also, no. Bitcoin isn't like oil, it is not consumed up. Blockchain space, that might act, as a commodity, that's why there are fees (other than spam prevention).

Actually, that is a way better explanation than mine, Thanks for it!
Yeah, i think some confuse the total supply of bitcoins in a given time period with the individual miner's share from that total fixed supply (which can be increased by additional "production costs" aka, buying more hashpower).

But increased individual cost/reward does not change the total fixed supply pool, nor the market valuation of a given bitcoin unit's price.

That was not my point, and you know it, and do not quote out of context please...also, it gives "to the Moon" a new meaning

Well, the basic idea was, to make a decentralized network computer executing smart-contracts (not especially for a currency function, more like automated "transactions", colour tokens (like open company shares), crowdfunding (like this DAO monstrosity:)), where ether is the "fuel" to run the scripts. So it is highly different from the Bitcoin network in regard of its purpose.

But, there are problems with this idea. Both technical and social:

1. it uses a Turing-complete scripting language, so it can create infinite loops - this is supposed to be negated by using ether for every processing cycle, but still can jam up the network for awhile in theory, it is an attack vector;

2. the problem of scaling: it can not, because, every script (smart contract) must be run by every node, or the network spilt, so it can get much-much-much more hardware heavy than processing a ~300 bytes bitcoin tx.
Also, the ORDERING is different (and uncontrollable) for different nodes - because how data propagates on a network, which can totally fukup the whole idea of interdependent contracting aka: the order how script I. or script II. occupies/operates in the next block can be paramount, if scI depends on the execution of scII., and they get implemented in a different time order, they crush (fail to run, since the dependency is behind the execution order for every node downloading the new block with executable scripts -"transactions").
In short, the interblock ordering of "transactions" are not necessarily interchangeable, while in bitcoin, they are! That is a key technical unavoidable difference. The proposed solution, to split the nodes to process different executable is against the basic idea, and creates more profound problems...

3. strictly speaking, Ethereum has no (yet) known enforceable, algorithmic monetary policy (we do not know if it is fixed at what number or what is the inflation rate if not, how exactly will it transform into the PoS consensus, also, PoS can not work on the long run, because it has too many attack vectors, especially with a script running environment). Also, pre-mined -huge red flag -, which means very strong centralization, and direct control over the protocol in few hands (remember, no anonym PoW random nonce mining took place, because, premining!!!).

In bitcoin, after and since the genesis block, anyone can see the unchangeable monetary policy: 21mil coins, reward drop after every 210,000 blocks, PoW consensus.

4. those who were studying the DAO made it obvious - even before the shameful "IPO" ended -, that you can not use the same token directly for financing actual projects, while the investor's tokens are both committed (frozen), and an external force (the market price of ETH) can interfere with those project's financial plans. (If the DAO commits say, 100k ether to a project, which is supposed to worth $100k, but suddenly ETH drops 10%, they won't be able to pay the contractors, and they already committed, and can not change their "votes", while can not have enough $ - unless the contractor takes ETH, but than he faces the same problem - DAO could work, IF crypto would only be the de facto world currency, but only than).

5. Assmaster, i disagree. Bitcoin is scaling, BECAUSE it is a dumb network (LN for example). Just like Ethernet, or tcp/ip, they are dumb, but additional layers can use the easy, secure, simple basis of it. Ethereum is too complicated in itself to be layered on, forces way too complicated and self-conflicting goals to nodes, and never actually was designed to be a currency (it is a script running network platform, not designed to be an immutable, decentralized trust network with several exahash/s security power).

Yepp.
They already hoard coins. I doubt any serious mining business "has to sell to pay electricity" - well if they has to, they already went bankrupt. These are multi million dollar investments, setting up an airport size ASIC farm, the investors can easily go years without selling a single BTC, they plan for long term - buying electric bill plans for 6-12 months ahead, the hardware is an already sunk capital, and makes no sense to turn it off anyway, the ROI is already calculated in 1-2 years. The notion that miners must sell every week/month is ridiculous.

And "bitcoin mining" is still not a production. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg15108324#msg15108324
There is no consumable good mining produces. All bitcoin already exists in a fixed 21mil coin supply, mining only releases them for transacting.

EDIT: and the same bitcoin can be mined with 1 notebook, or 100 mega asic farms, just a matter of difficulty (which in the algorithmic sense is totally independent of $/BTC), it remains the same bitcoin. So no there is no minimum production cost. Investment (=hash rate) in mining follows market value, not the other way around.

I can not believe these stories about transactions going unconfirmed for days. Bullshit. Very unlikely (like less than 0.0001% chance). I never had a transaction which did not get included at the next block, ever - of course i let my wallet software calculate the actual fee pressure and pay it, still highest fee ever paid was 0,0005, when the backlog was like 10k+ transactions, still got in the first block, np.

Even if they send a zero fee transaction, they will be included in hours, from one of those "lucky block streaks". Also, bitcoins can not be in a limbo. They are either at the original address until moved in a BLOCK, or at the new address after included in a BLOCK. If these mythical "2 days in limbo" are real, they just have to import the WIF to another wallet (or resend if the wallet has that option), and resend the same transaction with more (or non-zero) fees, the miners will accept, since the bitcoins are still at the original address when checked on the blockchain (coins are "on blockchain", not in the wallet software "it is known!") the old address until confirmed in a block not to be).

This "problem" is a FUD, any technically knowledgeable person will laugh on it...ps.: my message to these unicorn people: use a proper wallet with fee adjustment, and do not be a super cheap whiner on a 0.04$-0.08$ cost...

EDIT: some actual math: for 2 days without confirmation, someone needs to show me a 48 hours period with an average of 288 consecutive blocks, which are: all 100% full, with EVERY SINGLE transaction above the minimum 0,0001 fee paid. Come unicorns, show me such a period. They can not, that's why it is either BS, or they actually did not send the transaction (broken SVP maybe?) to the network, but too dumb to check if it is in the MemPool...

This might sounds very rude and non PC but.."ahh a female stuck with technology..no additional questions.."

EDIT:
This is the supposed stucked tx OP: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1504451.msg15135208#msg15135208
(mind that she actually included all information to backtrack her address information on a public forum which is..meh)
This is the actual transaction:
https://blockchain.info/tx/fe09397d068f68fc3656d345e8e6621a3b7a1e301e50dd7884a84e42128ca6d9

OFC, zero fees. And the tx id receive time is 2016-06-08 02:33:13, that was not 2 days ago...
I smell BS.

Yeah i know it sounds very non-pc. But, i am a scientist, i only look for the facts, and numbers, my care for social bullshit is zero. There must be a very basic non biased reason why 99% of the bitcoin user/investor/developer community is made up of 20-45 human males.

I am not biased against "women bitcoining" -and it absolutely wouldn't matter what i think -, THEY themselves are. I mean, the blockchain does not care if you are an alien dog from the future, so there can not be any reason why women do not use/study bitcoin other patriarchy than they do not want to. So i just made a statistically relevant and probable observation about the equation women+bitcoin= 99% likely fubar.

EDIT: now that i think about it, i trapped myself ion confirmation bias. 99,99% of the male population does not care about bitcoin as well. So the male/female ratio in bitcoin usage does not really matter, from a random n sample it is just as likely to get a male or female 99% who knows nothing about bitcoin.

How do you know i am not a women myself? Logic has no sex

Yeah, i just added an edit, thinking over again made obvious for me my own mistake Alas, i assume since bitcoin is a very high risk field, and males are in general tend to take higher risk as comfortable, that might be a good explanation why the male/female user ratio is as it is. Also, mathematics. :-D

Also, in general any new tech is first used by males disproportionally high, like, since fire?

 


It is way overdue for "the peasants" to learn some self reliance, and actually study and understand the things they use every f**ing day...Right?

Freedom has a cost. That cost might be higher on the average by a day/day basis, up until that special morning moment when those choose not to be free and picked the lazy solution which costed them zero day/day so far suddenly realize, everything they had has been taken away/evaporated by those whom they relied on to "deal with them, cause i am lazy".

Think about it, slaves did not had to worry about how to get food, shelter, work. Did this comfort worth that occasional fine assr*pe/murder?

While i agree, that this was kinda-sorta working up until now - actually, it didn't, that is why we have billionaire banksters, corrupt governments, frauds on every level of the financial/industrial/political system -, this can not be a way of life anymore. Sob-sob, evolution bitchez!

Those who stick with their "one trick pony" skills, one company for life, are dead weight in the information age. I am talking about large scale, like small individual laziness add up and brings the system down - just look at political leaders, most of them are reaaaly stupid.

I know this massive shift won't happen, i agree on that with you. That is why we might be the new super wealthy elite, because at every technological leap made before, the masses only start using/hoarding/studying it when the "leader says so", or the cost of staying out is visibly enormous, and it is already too late for them in 10 years in the future to enjoy the early innovator phase's benefits (like buying bitcoin below 50,000$ .

Control over money is the greatest power right now on this Earth.

I do not need to be my own everything. If, i am my own bank, i can pay everyone else to do my shit, just as you said.
You can not think, that the power to transact with anyone anywhere, anytime, without zero chance to be blocked/resisted/censored by state brutes is not monetary freedom. Or to walk away with a million$ BTC in your head cross borders.
I can either do it myself - none can take my money -, or give this great power to psychopats. The rest is history. Like in the so free USSA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
Seriously, read how the state brutalized its own citizens in the last 5000+ years by controlling money and wealth, and than you will see why bitcoin is so game changing for freedom.

* Rothbard's genius essay on the State vs People: https://mises.org/sites/default/files/Anatomy%20of%20the%20State_3.pdf

Since everyone is asleep, and no price action, a great paper about smart contracts (and why ethereum can't be what it supposed to be), read before sleep

http://www.multichain.com/blog/2016/04/beware-impossible-smart-contract/

This whole Saturday night till this moment is no surprise for anyone who followed last weekend rallies, studied fundamentals (like the LN https://lightning.network/ solution for scaling, which uses BTC as the native token), or all the other things mentioned before (Brexit, Whateveralphabetexit, TheHalvening http://www.thehalvening.com/, or read this one https://medium.com/@beautyon_/why-central-banks-will-fail-at-digital-currency-2a0f47e827cb#.m9ecvpav0.

As a scientist, i am so bullish THIS time, that i am 95%+ in bitcoin. This is (has to be actually) going to be like 2013 November all over again, but with a basis of $400, instead of $125.

Poor "average Joes", going to be so envy/angry/confused/FOMOed at me for having a few whole 1.0 bitcoins :-)

There will be more than 100 million people buying at $10,000/BTC. They will just buy 0.01 BTC at a $100/1mBTC. Not like people said they wont buy more BTC over $10/0.01 BTC (their loss :-) )

Just as there were 10-100 millions who accepted Venetian gold coins for centuries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sequin_(coin) in the 1300s'-1800 whom used it for a stable value store of currency for trade, and did not care, if they could afford a "whole" Venetian gold coin".

It ain't just You. I barely have any "ignored" posts, shills do not dare to post
I have never given price predictions before - You can chehk my post history:) - as  "The only way to be not wrong on a prediction, is to not give one", but i smell several (more than 1k) thousands as a top for this run up. So far it worked out for my stash...

Little do they know that eth has exactly 0 chance to be the "2.0 bitcoin". Let them play in the premined, PoS, "no-one-knows-whats this good for script garden", they will come home in time^^

Nice summing it up. Also, gold as a possession has it's problems, like, it is physical, unlike bitcoin, which is basically pure information. And as we know, anything physical can be taken away. Easily https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102.

I understand what you are trying to say, but that analogy is a plain fallacy.
The cap on your "token driven fairground economy" isn't the number of tokens on that Saturday afternoon, but the capacity of your riders. You could use solution no.1, or 3. still the number of people/hour who can use the rides is hard limited by spacetime:)

Also, i think you made a grave error in the calculation, which is you only spoke about supply side; if people really want to ride the marry-go-round, they will compete, like paying more than the usual 2 tokens/ride(!!) - that is a clear price function, if demand > supply, price goes up, even if temporarily, and especially with fixed money supply (isn't that the whole point of prices, to allocate resources for needs for the highest marginal utility ?).

Solution number 2. is not a choice only in case if none the would be buyers agree to pay more than the usual 2 tokens. Otherwise, the fairground owner will have a blast day :-). Or, you should calculate which solution is better: 1/2 the token price/ride versus the max  number of people served paying the original 1/1 price.

So, in short, the whole idea, that fixed money supply can not serve an economic system seems flawed to me, because it does not matter, which side of the equation you take as given (supply or demand), you can always put temporary market multipliers to either side. (in other words, deflation is the exact thing as inflation mathematically, but in deflation demand drives the multiplier, in inflation the supply does.)

EDIT: don't get me wrong, i have read your post about the derivates, fascinating stuff, still i disagree. If Bitcoin is a near 100% liquid base, M0, than it is like a child play, to make technical solutions - sidechain tokens representing the same function as derivatives, still not over the fixed supply (!) to mitigate future risk. The whole problem of today's monetary system is that the overwhelming majority of derivatives represents way more than simple risk mitigation contracts - casino gambles basically. See this chart for that example:

http://i2.wp.com/money.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/all-the-worlds-money-and-markets-dv.png?w=1130

EDIT2: do not get me wrong, i love Your thoughts and writing, very comprehensive, i love the deepnes behind them, i just happen to disagree on this one -maybe i am totally wrong, please do your best to disprove me :-) . Respect!

Weekend rally preponed (is that a legit word?  )

None ever mentioned money velocity in respect to tx/sec and blocksize arguments. It does not matter up until a point if you get confirmation in the next block, or tomorrow (unless you want to spend the same utxo in a short time cycle again) if you will not spend that anyway for weeks (the velocity is unlinked with actual tx/s).

If i pay my coffee, i do not care anymore if it would take 10 mins or 10 days, and most likely the coffee shop owner neither, for his got 100/day incoming txs, and he only has to pay suppliers a few times/month. So the actual economic activity that Bitcoin today can serve is way more than a mere 7tx/sec imo.

Not to mention, once in the mempool with "enough" fee, the receiver can be sure to have those bitcoins in a few hours, max days, but never have to deal with charge backs, unlike credit cards (obviously up until a point which we are faar away yet)!

You see this as well?

Interesting. The "west" is now 6$+ to china. US driven run (given it is around 2-4 am in Europe ? Just speculating 

After the 5th beer it is hard to get a decent one, especially while watching bitcoin candles. It is supposed to be like watching porn, but, 5+ beers. I feel your pain (pun intended!)  

They do!
 

I have never did price predictions before (!), but i see that the price increases will go faster and faster to a new ATH (whatever that may be), like 600$ to 700$ was less than 24 hours, now i see less and less resistance to higher and higher price.

The father figure You are!  
Damn i love run ups, i can again feel the fraternity feeling of booze, cheers, and optimism ^^

Nice chunk of buys on stamp. Up we go

(in the mean time :https://cryptowat.ch/kraken/ethbtc, which might explain this up)

$777

Also, blocks return to normal, less than 6k txs in waiting. Business as usual

Interesting, i watch ethbtc and finex btcusd and the wall movements are mirroring each other. When on crushes, the other pumps, and vica versa. Like clockwork.

He is not intelligent at all. He read a lot - did not understood. I saw many of his posts here before i finally ignored him, like talking to a brick wall. He was not able to (or pretend not to) understand core computer science principles, even though he supposed to be a prof in it...well, Keynes was an economic prof - i suppose, and look how good his theories worked out in real life..

What just happened? I was reading the last 3 pages than suddenly BOOM 600+?

Or good ol' Finex fuked up something again?

Edit: Actually, OKcoin did the very same thing, 3,89% up at the very same minute. So it is not just Finex.

"Shut up and take me dollars" :-D

It is funny, i was about to go into the city after my beer, to buy a whole(! )) BTC for me cold storage reservoir, after 3 weeks of boredom. I have these feelings sometime

And just about that minute i thought about this, price shoots. Weird...

I have to open another beer, and postpone drinking with friends/bitchez +1 hour at Saturday night. Cause bitcoin. That's what happened  

BTW
 

I am happy to see that EU theory (Electric Universe) made at least one more person here to think about how flawed the Newtonian/Einsteinian gravitational theory is. And i am not being sarcastic, i find EU way better, simpler, and fitting with actual experimental data than the "mass=gravity" and "space bending" -lol, space is a concept - while they can not even define what is matter, and conjure up bullshits like Higgs-field - which is a clear sign of a failed hypothesis, when you have to postulate a never ending line of "new particles", and still failing with basic logical paradoxes. (Like how quantum mechanics can not coexist with relativity, not even on "paper".) Same problem in medicine, like the 30+ years fake bullshit HIV/AIDS (research it, seriously, watch House of Numbers for starters) or the whole basis for cancer therapy - yeah, radiate and poison people with known carcinogenic/mutagenic "cures", never mind the 98% mortality rate in 5 years "remission" follow up.... Mainstream science is a joke nowadays.

While i agree with what you just said, you had the false prejudice, that i am from one of those "Western" countries, and have no idea whats going on with the "other 6 billion". I was born and living in a post-soviet country, so i know exactly from since a young adult the dichotomy between "what they say" and "what they do" I also have my own vegetable garden, so i know, how tasteless supermarket food is vs. home growned ones.

Now that i have analyzed the time at where the selling started at different exchanges (huobi, finex, stamp), it is obviously coordinated. No way that random people start to sell on 3 major exchanges at the very same 1-3 minute time frame (21:12 UTC, on a Sunday evening, riiight). Organized dump, nothing to see here.

They probably been preparing for this for hours/days. (You need to load up btc on different exchanges, than start selling at the very same time on those exchanges, for an obvious loss i might add - i would just use an OCT service for unload large amount of btc, less hassle, better price - clear manipulation.)

Yes, well, that needs time to react/deposit/organize. No way, you can arbitrage in less than 30 sec, between different regions, unless you have substantial amount of deposits on different exchanges at the same time, and watching/running bots, and still, that would only be reactionary, not preemptive.

I do not have "a point". It was just an interesting observation. Am all for manipulation, this is supposedly a free market, as long as the trades are voluntary, i do not care/mind. What was interesting, is that the supposed "seller" could make more profit, if it had not dumped everywhere at the same time and crushing the price with such volume, so obviously profit making was not the goal, but i might be wrong, and these were just faulty bots overreacting - remember, it was late Sunday evening in Europe, late afternoon in US, and around 3am in Asia, still on Sunday, not many people are awake/trading at this time? 

Yepp. But let me agree differently, and save You a lot of trouble/time arguing the sceptics.
There is a simple answer to these "hypothetical doom scenarios":

If bitcoin, the network, is open accessed - by that i mean that anyone can jump into the mining race (for the probabilistic chance to create the next block. PROBABILISTIC(!)) -, and bitcoin the currency unit is valued by - alas semi - the free market, and any central bank **insert evil bank cartel here*** can buy/sell it with free air printed fiat -, than all those hypothetical "sinister powers would be" should have been able to strangle it in the crib already, if they have wanted to/capable to do it. AKA, bitcoin would be dead.

Since bitcoin is still alive, and the aggregated network security is at an all time high, price is stable and obviously on a long term uptrend, none of the above has happened/can be done despite the intent -> hypothetical attacks have failed/can't be done as of yet.

I am a bit tired of all these "but what if...[insert totally unrealistic scenario] things happens, and kills bitcoin..."
The mere fact, that they did not happened in the last 7 years - despite the enormous incentive of the legacy system to act upon it - shows us that it can not be done, or they could not have found a way to do it so far (but yeah, they have tried, like - terrorist, drug dealers, ponzi, etc bullshit).

That is why blocksize arguments are meaningless. The free market - self interested actors with risk involved - will produce a solution at the exact moment - like, literally in days/hours - when the cost/opportunity cost of not acting/acting reaches the average-n+1  profit margin.

Let the free market work it's ways, and just HODL!

EDIT:

While i am aware, that in the long term, we do need to scale the tx/sec capacity (even though, that is an entirely different argument about what is bitcoin, the new "baby VISA", or the new "electronic gold"),  data show no imminent(!) threat:

https://blockchain.info/charts/median-confirmation-time?timespan=all

Someone was complaining about the low attendance over here a few days ago ( i still read this daily, just has nothing to say).

And in 24h, we get this funny spike :-D

Now, i can not go to sleep, have to watch the *popcorn*!
Missed craziness. That should be a vote! "Do you miss crazy volatile bitcoin?" hehe

Best burn ever for that s***thead stolfi   (no, he really is that dumb, evidence no.1 below!) regarding the SEC etf comment ranting of his:

http://cryptohustle.com/why-bitcoin-isnt-a-ponzi-scheme, read it, it is hilarious, that "professor" is mentally challenged obviously.

also there is a reddit post about it:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/57klhg/why_bitcoin_isnt_a_ponzi_scheme/


edit: my favorite part:

stolfi: “The only way to make a profit by investing in bitcoins is by selling them to other investors, for more than their purchase price [...]"

the author's reply: "The only way to make profit on anything is to sell it for more than what you payed for it. In fact this is the very definition of the word…"

the rest is just as entertaining as well

Oh, i feel old, just realized now am senior member 

Have to quote, because of awesomeness!!! I mean the picture selection :-D
Also, i had a prophetic, lucid dream of a bitcoin rally to the sky/moon/electric Sun, the collective subconscious said the word, so it is time!

Also: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-15/5-urgent-warnings-big-banks-economy-has-gone-suicidal yeah, i know, it is zerohedge, where apocalypse is an everday event, but still, it is an interesting read.

EDIT: lol Hyperjacked was faster :DDDDD

So much for quiet...

Ask walls melting away, sellers predict even higher prices, i smell more run up during the night (night in Europe, thats it:_). 6 hours ago there were more than 2500 BTC ask for 670$ on Bitstamp, now its only 453 BTC for 670$, and 2500 would shoot the price up to 770$.
 

Houbi over 673$. Next up-wave incoming ^^ prepare the 700 memes!!!
Btw, funny to watch how when China breaks upwards, European traders start to sell, even when there is a 10-20$ arbitrage... lol.

Interesting.

Tuesday/Wednesday bullrun?

I think this is appropriate now:

Am not an expert on "animals whos smell of burning flesh satisfies a deity", but could you sacrifice bears instead? 

I think we will test 700 next month this week in the next 24 hours. Which are critical.

According to https://bitcoinfees.21.co/, 0,0008* btc fee still enough to have a 100% chance to get you in the next block. Almost 29k of the 50k backlog in the mempool from the last 72 hours has a fee between 0,0000 and 0,0001, and 18k has less than 0,0005 fee so insufficient or zero fee. Aka, technically spam - if your tx gets into a block, it had sufficient fee.

*normalized to 71-80 satoshi/kbyte

Also, most people in bitcoin ask about/wait for "mass adoption by the "avergae Joes"". Which is hilarious, it is so not going to work out like that; all new tech got adopted by: first, a small intellectual elite who understands the paradigm shift; second: capital injection from a marginal but very wealthy part of society whom are ready for high risk/high profit scenarios, and has good advisors/insight; third: than last "Average Joe" has no other way (! it is not his choice, it is mandatory for him!!) than adopt as well, because remaining with the old tech is below marginal utility/1.

Same happens and will happen with bitcoin, we are kinda of the "intellectual elite", banks, ETFs, hedge funds etc. are the capital injection, and "average Joe" will be too late to make early adopter profit - we are speaking of 100x-10000x wealth increase on wealth redistribution here from fiat to crypto - as usual (but still going to enjoy "risk free, already established advanced technology).

edit: just as the "average Joes aka mass" among my colleges, friends; was telling them to buy bitcoin "just in case" for two years by now (last summer it was around 230$!!), yet they never did. They totally gonna miss out the wealth distribution effect (not 700$, but 7000$+ as well), like 98% of the world population.

Yes, SOME bitcoiners suffered - 90% did not. Cause "my key, my bitcoins" etc.
But you are right about Deutsche Bank. It does not matter, if you are a DB customer, or any other major bank's, since they are all connected through "toxic derivatives" so all customer funds are in jeopardy - enters bitcoin.

I disagree about "Joes" buying bitcoin suddenly - i wish that would be true, but, reality :-(. It is so not ready for non-tech/little tech users to join in in masses -yet!, i know; i get so many fukin stupid question from "non-tech" personell, which an average 12 year old gamer geek kid could answer.

Do not forget, that half in the EU countries, from 29th Oct-2nd of Nov is a 4 day "bank holiday" (Nov. the 1st is "Dead relatives Day"), so no new fiat can hit the exchanges. I do not know about China/US/India.

But, in the Eurozone, that is a hold back for fiat->btc pumping. Still, i am amazed, how strong the resistance against dumpage back to 680$ areas, this is very unusual.

Now that i think about it, there are really new people want to in. We are just so used to all the "fake good news", we can not fathom the possibility, that there are really a new wave of users/speculators. Two of my friends asked me this week how to buy btc, even though i was telling about it for alas 2 years by now. Weird. Is there some MSM article/policy change i've missed?

I know there was one MSM article translated here in my country which mentioned bitcoin as a "independent safe heaven asset", but still.

It is, and most likely will be visited in the next 1-3 weeks, if there is one thing i have learned is that "it always goes up. And than down. And than up". Except when it does not anymore (i mean here the down side), there is literally no chance to ever get a two digit price anymore, ever.

Why? Cause i would rather get a bank loan on my house than let 200> btc "unbought", and many people would do the same, hence there will be no 2 digit bitcoins, ever again.

$660 is close, yet, 2013 was a long time ago, at least 10x-100x more people want to get in/looking for ways to get in, any run up to the previous ATH will be an absolute psychological catalyst for mass investor FOMO hysteria, propelling the prices to several 4 digits areas least, and way too much institutional investment to let the price ever fall below 4 digits, like ever again, just as we know we won't see - NEVER - 2 digits anymore.

No idea, when the present bullish sentiment ends, $660 is totally possible (i hope so, i wanna buy in more at that price!) for a few weeks, maybe 2-3 months sideways at max, but after 8 years since Genesis block, there are roadblocks.

If we hit ATH again, it won't play out as last time, especially without Willy - aka, a slow bleed back to 2x price before the run up. Things has changed.

5180 CNY resistance brake in less than 24 hours. Which are critical. This. Gentleman.

There was a 3 person line for the BTM in my city tonight. Never has seen anyone at that BTM before when i was out for buying!!

no

2013. Without Willy. We all want to see that November again, right?

On a serious note, all the ingredients (-ETF WF, India waking, SW, LN upon, scaling solved, WS and other institutionals are ready, MSM free advertise) are ready for it. The fundamentals are there, the halving getting priced in (yes, i said it!) slowly, just like the last time, and i am sad that i did not bought last month. Even thought my strat is buy+HODL. I shall and will buy moar.

I wish. No, seriously, i want to buy in with like 3+ BTC, so i wish we crash back to $660 even for a couple of hours. Alas, i do not see why that would happen. Market behavior has changed. It is a wide spread accumulating phase now, and we can not say a thing about it.

I do not want to be a dick, but this is a really good read about all this China FUD http://fintekneeks.com/zerohedge-fakes-bitcoin-panic/. Especially the part, where they point to the fact, that China had a +buy volume during the selling, and how insignificant bitcoin is in a 100 trillion market.

Just a thought.

I know, right? :-D

That is why my "stash" has increased during the FUD, and the children went home with a loss   I even said to Terra, that i would be glad for a 650+ish correction, so i can buy more BTC, and in less than a day, it did happen, just as we talked about it.

FTFY 

On a serious note, look at those nice geen bars last 20 mins! 720$ already!

Yeah, the first official trollpresident. I love it! :-D

Ah, come on, we should have a little bit of fun. Like: http://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-ricochet-as-clinton-trump-trade-lead-in-florida-1478654413 Stock Futures Plunge as Donald Trump Posts Strong Showing.
Fun!

This trumping is hillarious. 730+ USD!

rocketwarmer blankets off.

Just for you

740

+4% in 6 hours

So, if i post both, like this:


What would happen?

This starts to become weird/out of the usual movement. Thought it is gonna correct back to low 700s, so i can buy moar, well, than i just HODL.
USD catching up rather fast to CNY's 777$, which is the new 666 apparently

This article http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-16/stunning-scenes-panic-gold-price-skyrockets-india-after-currency-ban once again reminds me why bitcoin equals freedom.

If even 1/10th of that article is true (its zerohedge, so...), it is still horrifying.
India goes down the shitter in light speed, and they can not even buy bitcoins with those useless banknotes.

Lesson learned: keep wealth in government resistant assets.

Also, wow 757$ on finex, are these people never sleep?

Actually, on zebpay.in, it is 59 855 INR, which is even more :_D 880+ usd.

Indeed. I would add to this profile a fair amount of tendency for self abuse for bear trolls, because, honestly, it must the shittiest "job" to be a bear troll for bitcoin. I mean...in the long term like day 1 to today, bitcoin has been proven to be the best investment of the century so far, so all their fud /projections fails in the long term all the time. That must suck! 

800

Love this place during bull runs
Next year going to be exciting, bitcoin economy is much more mature - many exchanges, millions of users, institutional investment stepping in - than it was in 2013, 2k+ is absolutely possible and realistic for 2017!

Yeah, i was wondering the same thing, the ask side is dead, less than 1500 coins to 950$.
someone said here, that once 800$ falls, 900$ will be reached in a very short time, and it is happening as, cny price already over 850, in less than 24 hours!

Feels like 2013 again, except, that now we have bitcoins from the 250$ era :-D

EDIT: it is actually only 1166 coins till 950$ on stamp, people withdraw a lot of asking even from that price range lol.

900$ is imminent. BUY and HODL are the only two reasonable strategies.

Well, if 900 took about 48 hours...than 1000 shouldn't take much longer. Pity it is Christmas, stupid banking holidays. Oh wait, point in case 

OMG, so funny to watch this :-) 2013 memories^^

China already over 912, USD price shoot +15$ in 10 minutes!

Ask side on stamp shrinked below 2000 btc for 1000$!

900$ in 5...

He IS. He's watching us from his boat? I guess.

Obvious things are obvious:) Vinny was right ^^



1400 wall on stamp till 1000$

OMG, totally out of booz. Poor Jimbo, when he wakes up... coffee won't do it for him .D

I member, turns out, 800$ coins were cheap after all :-D

Won't sleep until 1000$ in CNY )

OMFG that buying, can't keep up the scrolling, 200 btc buys on stamp!!

Yeah, i have cheated, fall asleep at ~970$ in CNY. When i woke up, it only took 3 hours to reach the 1k$ was only off about 13 hours, not that bad.

Just read this, very nice analysis about how and why hype cycles form, push up the price, than deflate after the peak. Awesome read, and based on it, we are about to see the next bull run!

https://medium.com/@mcasey0827/speculative-bitcoin-adoption-price-theory-2eed48ecf7da#.tfsxpyns2

Actually, there is a good explanation in the comments, where it is stated, that bitcoin follows this fractal cycle again and again because of inelastic supply  (which is a built in function, and halvings are part of it).

That is why bitcoin can go through new cycles until it reaches the "vertical increase of majority adoption", as the supply (the production of the goods in increased demand) can not adopt to the change in demand, so, that is also an empiric evidence, that demand for bitcoin IS growing through time (since the creation of new bitcoins is at a predetermined, fixed rate, no matter the hash rate/demand increase on the long run, unlike other assets, so can not reach a stable marginal profit rate).

That 1700 BTC wall on stamp looks totally phony..i wonder how many actual buys it is going to be to reach 1000$, at the price of 980$ why would suddenly there be a huge sell-off when the trend is obviously gonna be way higher than a mere 1k$?

Happy BTCirthday https://blockchain.info/block-index/14849!

This Genesis is actually provable 

wow, hundreds of buys on stamp! Wall beign eaten away faster than i can type.

Finally, someone said it  

But seriously, who's dumbing their btc now?? When everything points to a new ATH in the near future? When we are after a halving of new btc supply since the last rally? When we have 100x more liquidity, 100x more ATMs worldwide, 100x more people knowing/using/speculating on btc? Not to mention the protocol advances, LN, ETF, currency crisis, etc.

The market is so much more mature and advanced (on-off ramps) compared to 2013, so the upside potential is enormous, anyone who is learning about and investing in btc since 2013 should HODL for life, unless he still does not "get it".

This is still only the "innovator" phase, we are still in the beginning 1/3 of the S-curve. Just as double digits has gone forever, triple digits will be gone forever soon, and some long time bitcoiners "take profit" for a 100$? LOL.

Rant over  

China right now:

The great thing about bitcoin "rally halting" by dumping, is that they can only do it once, unless they buy back in again, driving the price back to where it started  

EDIT: see, ask wall decimated on stamp, less than 250 coins till 1100$ after this "sell".

So gonna buy the dip! So gonna laugh when this crush than shoot out even higher in a few days!

Lovely  

Headless chicken phase initiated. There are 200$ spreads over the exchanges, and 10%+ spread on the same (usd or cny) region.

Wisdom of the crowd, my ass  

Am just sipping tea here, wait for the bottom, buy with all fiat, and wait. I wonder who is selling below 900$, after we just had new ATHs, this must clearly be the big shakeout before the parabolic rise, every bitcoin run up had this exact weird movement so far, it is a sure sign that the mega bull run will begin shortly after the carnage!

https://medium.com/@mcasey0827/speculative-bitcoin-adoption-price-theory-2eed48ecf7da#.jjhbj95hs

Fun times to be here!

These sudden up/down things always starts to happen 5 minutes before i go to bed.

Which means, now i can't go to bed...
But seriously, price stagnates for a week, who is stupid enough to buy them all at once? Fishy.

EDIT: oh wait, i know:

This starts to get interesting.  

Wonder how fast that fake 1000+ wall at 1200$ melts away on stamp. Huge buys, like 150 BTC in half minute!

1200$, here we go!

Wow, that morning megadump looks so silly now, ain't it?  

In other words:
" A scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it. " Max Planck

1244 USD Bitstamp. Bye bye stupid Gox! Hello gold parity  

I have been thinking/reading about this lately. My conclusion is that gold is nothing more than a vanity asset, and will never reach the "promise land" while bitcoin can. Here are the things to consider why i have reached this conclusion:

1. Potential for increased adoption for Store of value:

Gold was and is a store of value for thousands of years. That sound like a plus, but, actually that shows gold has no 100 millions of future adopters ahead of it. Everyone knows gold, especially governments want to hoard it (which should raise a red flag, it means they think/will act on to control it). Young people (20-40), apart from India and similar low economic wealth societies, has no interest in hoarding gold.

Bitcoin - as for any other technological adaptation cycle shows us - has no upper limit on the number of potential investors, 99.99% of the population has still no clue what is it, also, it can adapt to any human behavior, unlike gold, which has fixed, "intrinsic" properties (and hence fixed, unsolvable limitations, like weight, space, which lead to fractional paper gold reserves already, unlike bitcoin, where everyone can instantly proof, that his bitcoin exists, and only he has control over it).

2. Liquidity and actual economic activity:

Gold has no practical economic use (actually, the fact that it can be used in electronics, medicine and art makes it less "money")
in everyday life. No gold coin can realistically be used to pay for goods/services in a "Monday morning coffee" situation. The only way to release the economic value from gold holdings is to trade it - with much hassle, limited trading hours, extremely limited and actual physical presence in a gold "pawn shop" - for a more liquid asset, like USD or *cough* bitcoin. While this ain't that such a big deal for long time holders, still, compared to "digital gold", the premium for physicality is huge in comparison.

Bitcoin is a different animal, a perfect embodiment of the Informational Age sentiment, waaay more liquid in real life market events - by that i mean: i can actually use my bitcoins for beer, food, groceries, etc., right now(!), while my gold bars can not be used directly for any payment, or transferred through the globe, 0-24h. Bitcoin leaves gold in the dustbin of history regarding actual economic activity, and, you can not upgrade the "features" of gold, unlike bitcoin's.

TLDR; for an investor, there is no logical reason based on the above, to postulate a 10x value increase in 5 years for gold, while there are many reasons to do it for bitcoin. Hence, as a long term store of value, "digital gold" beats old school gold, and the opportunity cost of holding one of them is in an obvious non equilibrium in favor of bitcoin, which will start a self generating cycle of gold investment ---> bitcoin investment.

I actually had that experience. I was telling F&F to think about bitcoin when it was around the $250 range, they all laughed at me. Than i had a friend's friend, who paid me handsomely for "financial advice" - well, advice on how to buy and secure bitcoin -, and he actually thanked me around this Christmas
Free advice= shit; paid (same) advice= respectable guidance....

You mean lead. For bullets.

Now finally, have waited for this dip for weeks.

BUY THE DIP
LOL. Never seen this, price jumps +/-100$ in seconds.

It is funny on two grounds:
1. "potential for fraudulent or manipulative acts and practices in this market" because that never ever happens on the Wall Street...

2. A regulatory institute denies to regulate an new commodity market on the ground that this market is not regulated. LOL.
By that logic, there will never be a bitcoin ETF, since there is no "official" bitcoin issuer to regulate.

Actually, i need to find out the algorithm how the "unknown ones" select their next shitcoin to pump, so i can buy a lot and dump after the pump for BTC. I mean, ripple this time??? wtf. :-D

This is getting interesting. Wondering if we ever see 3 digits anymore 

Bitstamp wall getting eaten away at 1500$.

Can't stop watch bars!

This is beautiful! Getting emotional 
And highly expected.

2767$, 2786$ the new ATH on Bitstamp

Also,less than 900 BTC wall for 3000$!

WTF happened on finex??? someone bought 2k BTC?

Counting blocks live, just like the halvening last summer, fun!

Crazy price movement. Especially after the doomsday prophecies from the weekend dump.

Well, it is not hard to call it if they are the ones who are buying? :-D

This is ridiculous.
Literally free money? If i have 10 BTC, now i also have 10 BCH, and get x BTC/x dollars out of nothing if i sell it?

Absolutely unsustainable, unless, BCH buyers introduce new money to the BTC market? Cause in that case, BTC just went up a lot masked as BCH in dollars.
Otherwise, it is a perpetual motion machine, and i will hire someone for another forked "BTC alt"...

Watching graphs and suddenly...someone was buying large.

Queue the rocketship pictures  

EDIT: doh, am too slow 
Whats the ATH on Stamp?

NEW BITSTAMP ATH: 3000

3100$ + .
Sell walls absolutely empty, less than 400 coins up for sale up to 3400$ on stamp.

That is EXACTLY what happened to me. Like, exactly 
Funny thing is, when i went to sleep, i also saw the "old" new ATH.

'Cause you are looking at her face.

Wow.

Those 3000s were not last long lol.
Alts are down, bitcoin up, 5k maybe FOMOed in days.
Grabbing a drink 

Oh, another ATH...

Getting boring

This is fun to watch. Missed those ATHs!

This is too much free money to ignore for me. Had to brake some cold storage, split, now am waiting the magical 0.35 ratio, where usually alt-pumps die vs BTC. This is nothing new, i do not get why people panic.

Alts are for getting more BTC, first and foremost, apart maybe from "world's first vapor powered computer" eth (it was shilled in the MSM in the early summer, member?) which is now used for ICO scams in practice - and even crapping the bed on that one occasionally  - , "average Joe" never heard about anything else than bitcoin in the news.

Btw, no wonder BCH did not got dumped to death, it is a real pain in the ass to make the split securely(!), an average user with no tech jargon and only a mobile wallet/sitting coins on coinbase has no chance to execute it properly.

Oh, i am not complaining 
BTG might be another 2 years salary for free, for a few hours of learning/work/trading.
It is fascinating, most people - including F&F - would rather watch TV/do shit, than spend a few (hundred) hours to learn about crypto and profit from these things. Well, survival of the fittest, i guess.

Or, give your house a beautiful new wife? 

Just a thought

If you check the "bars", there is an interesting pattern emerging in this BCH pump, a fractal repeating of pattern: shoot up, correct to 70% in 30 mins, retrace to 80% of top, than a flat sideways for 2-3 hours. Than repeat, i saw this for 2 days now. Every shoot up colludes with BTC suddenly dropping around the same volume (BTC/BCH sell ratios move in inverse).

This is wave 6th right now.

https://fork.lol/blocks/time

It is a lol network. You either have near instant confirmations, or wait hours. Absolutely unpredictable, unless you know when the EDA starts  

Can..not..resist..
Buttcash vs Butthereum!

Retard potato fight!  

This is beyond full retard.
Am out, 0,43 good enough for me.

The crash will be E P I C

Fees are high - apart from the spam attack -, because demand for blockspace is higher than the supply (and always will be). 2MB/4MB/1024MB wouldn't change it, there are near infinite demand for using the blockchain's utilities; time will always be an unchangeable limit for competing transactions, no matter the blocksize.

Stop bitching about it, that is what called free market, those who value the utility/time/cost of their transactions will outcompete those who do not, same as with every goods/services with free market valuation.

Also, how are high fees a sign of failure?
Classic socialist person thinking:
"this restaurant is full, it is clearly failing because I can not eat here, RIGHT NOW, for the price i esteem "FAIR" for a table, bruh bruh "
Sorry, you just got outpriced by the market.

You are saying, literally: "nobody uses it, because so many users use it and that makes it costly.

Can you not see the cognitive dissonance in that?
That was my restaurant analogy, and it is a perfect fit. Also, there is a logical fallacy arguing that "the free market rule" and "oh but what about the poor people" in the same sentence.

Pick one, because the laws of economics - just like the laws of physics - doesn't give a shit about human's subjective concepts like "fairness".

No, you pay high fees, BECAUSE it is giving you freedom. If you value the cost less than you value the freedom granted, do not use it. It is OPT-IN.
In other words:
The demand for financial sovereignty through the use of the - voluntary(!)- network of Bitcoin is higher than the supply right now, that is why it is expensive, not because of technical limitations. And spam attack, ofc  

Freedom has a cost. No one forces you to pay it.

I will try, not sure i will be able

You have to pay high fees, because there are other people who also want to use the bitcoin network just as you, for whatever reason. Basically, you are competing for the next x block tx inclusion - it doesn't matter which timeline, those with "not urgent" needs also compete with the other "not urgent" ones.
This is the cost side.

The benefit side, aka the "financial freedom" comes from the properties of the bitcoin network, like censorship resistance aka:
you are mathematically/cryptographically protected against third party intrusion, such as freezing or confiscating your wealth on any reason or with method.

That is what i define as financial freedom, which comes with the aformentioned cost.

EDIT: oh i see the confusion: free (=zero cost on energy/resource expenditure) does not equals freedom (the ability to ignore the command of other actors without repercussion).

That made me 

Nothing personal, but let me do a "socialist wants free shit ideolog" -> english translation

"I want to see lower fees" translation: i want free shit, i do not want to compete with people more intent, cause lower fees will:
"help spread bitcoin all across the world" i want my investment go up in value first and foremost, while
"reliable confirmations" i want it all to be very comfy for me, myself and me, i can not code, but someone must take care about that.

"but i am a philantrope, really"

You do not know nothing about what i read/know or do not know about "all the work done".

Saying "you are in a censored echo chamber" is not an argument, hence can be ignored as is.
Goals of a project, "spearheading the launch of the real beginning of the starting, now really" does not equal an actual, finished, workable product. Come back when it is done, implemented and used, than i will congratulate for your hard work and ingenuity.

In 3rd world countries, where the economic need to use bitcoin is high (Venezuela, Zimbabwe, India, etc.), it already trades on a higher value than in the banked comfy western countries, so the basic assumption you argue that "scaling problems prohibit 3rd world use" is factually false. You can make it cheaper for them, yes, but it is not broken.

On the highlighted part, translation: "we just need to ignore the Laws of physics and it will work!"
I smell male cow fecal matter.

***Actually, you can do a galactic payment system. Speed of light is only a limit for particle function, gravity has to/is clearly works near instantly through the galaxy, otherwise it would fall apart. Quantum entanglement already showed that state information (longitudional wave function) propagates faster than the light of speed (which is not a constant, depends on the medium it travels through).

By definition, quantum entanglement IS information exchange in zero time regardless of distance. Changing the state of 'A' instantly changes the state of 'B', and any binary state system can be used for information exchange.

On gravity waves: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFJjrD5pq_I
If you really are interested, you should check out alternate explanations as well.
Standard physics explanation on gravity is a logical fallacy resulting from circular argument:

Mass of particles generates a gravity field in the 3d spatial space (whatever that is, it is undefined in material terms), and particles have mass because the gravity field of other particles "pulls" on them in the 3d spatial space.

It is a circular argument, a closed loophole of thought. Does not explain the origin of mass in matter (no, Higgs-bozons are a hoax, which assumes the 3d spatial space has magical abilities, non measurable ofc).

Bitcoin gains it's value by proven exclusion of any third party intervention in a value exchange network between peers.
This is achieved in "The original vision" by that both the sender and receiver peer can independently get a proof by running a full node that there is no double spending on a transaction between them. No need for a trusted third party can be only achieved by this independent verification process, which needs the physically possible minimum technical requirements for running a full node for the most participants. A large block size excludes most peers doing this, essentially destroying the very core of bitcoin's value.

There was nothing about how the cost of transactions (fees) would be "fair" in the white paper; the costs of doing transactions in a voluntary, opt-in value exchange network is entirely upon the peers do decide between themselves.

You are basically saying that the free market is not working to establish the subjective valuation of the actors to reach a price of transacting. You think you can "spend their money better than they do".
That is the problem, not the vaporware you shill.

If users do not run nodes, who does? I mean.. non users run the nodes?? Is this an Orwelian newspeak?
I think we have a different definition of what a node is and does in a network, but that happens.

And no, i will never trust anything that begins with "simplified" in that sense. That is a code word for "do not worry, we have your back, somewhere, you do not need to know, relax".
I must be able to see EVERYTHING since the Genesis block. That is the ONLY 100% guarantee not to be screwed over by "simplified technology". You can not simplify an information state below itself (you can not express '1' with anything shorter than itself).

edit: btw, you have not addressed my argument about free market of fees, or that what if users want to run nodes - not because they have to/need to, but because that is bitcoin's value proposition but prohibited by gigabyte blocks. You have just recited slogans "be your own bank! - even though you can not run a server farm yourself, but, meh it sounded good!"

That is a contradiction (bolded parts).

I can only prove it with a 100% chance, that the "provided" hash of the transaction from an untrusted node is valid, if i can reproduce that final few kilobyte hashed data myself from scratch.
For that, i MUST HAVE every single previous hashes starting from the first iteration of said transaction (the coinbase tx), and recreate the chain of proof myself.

For that, i need to have my own independent copy of the complete transactional history of the past utxos, not depending on it to be provided by an untrusted node on request - and in a trustless system, i must presume by default every other node is untrusted.

SPV can and does work, but it can not be a 100% proof of a valid state. Of course, for everyday low cost transactions, an SPVs probability for validity is enough, but it is not trustless, as you argue, and the problem will escalate with time:
if the ratio of SPV/full validating nodes drops below a treshold, the chance for a malicious collusion between said full nodes increases exponentially.

Apart from argumentum ad hominem, you still have not addressed my arguments about the role of free markets in tx fee competition between peers nor about my thesis why you need the whole database to independently recreate the chain of hashes, which is okay, you are not obligated to.

I trust the "intelligent readers" can make up their own minds, and see you are dodging actual answers, and just repeating slogans.

https://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=705669 is the first description of a proof-of-work system solution by C. Dwark and M. Naor. I am not an expert, but still, you do not know my knowledge level, you just assume things you can not prove. If you use this same thought process in your professional work, i would not expect too much from it to be honest.

Nothing personal - i have no emotional investment in this exchange - i just do not see any new (counter)argument from you, which makes this conversation pointless to continue.

Yes, it probably will work like how it does today, but instead of a bank account where people keep their money and subject to arbitrary power, they can keep it on the bitcoin blockchain. Than they just top up a prepaid-card/lighting network channel for everyday small purchases, just like you can withdraw cash from an ATM.

It isn't that complicated, also, with additional layered solutions pegging back to the bitcoin network, different transfer needs (like streaming money with micro/nano transactions) will have different layers, with varying amount of centralized services, depending on the need for trust.

The point of the bitcoin network would be the absolute uncensorable arbiter of truth, which all these layers/sidechains/network can rely on - the gold standard, so to speak.

That is why decentralization, censorship resistance, open access are the true value of bitcoin, not cheap transactions. Those can be solved on the layering technologies - without a robust, unyielding base, we will have neither of them.

That is not precise.

If the transaction is valid, every node will broadcast it. The miners may not include it in a block, if there are transactions in the queue with a non-zero fee, especially while the mempool is over capacity for the next block. As soon as there is free space in the next block, zero fee transaction will get through - of course, the chance to empty the mempool below capacity is in question these days :-)

Bitstamp ATH!
7889$
7892

When 8000$ ?

I still have like 10 bitchcoin to unload. That infamous pump last weekend was a perfect spot to unload the majority of them, managed to dump at around 0,41, made me a lot of free BTC, sponsored by Ver and Co!  

I really hope they do another P$D, so i can get rid of the leftover soon!

Oh, i must check that. Sounds reasonable; also need to upgrade my node it seems.
Thanks  

Cool. So if i read it right, txout+CTxIN below 294 satoshi will be rejected as dust.

I highly doubt that. None has that much money to repeat this BTC/BCH swapping any more, now every trader is preapared and speculate on such an attack, which might be the only reason why BCH is still not below 300$.

Not to mention the technical drama around bitcoinchlasic  https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/7dd43h/bch_has_a_problem_clashic_is_alive_replays/ 

Suddenly, BTC drops, and BCH rises after days of slow ups/downs, in 5 minutes.
So obvious, seems they try another weekend P&D against BTC.
Bring it on, so i can sell my remaining bichslavecoincashlol for more BTC  

That would be 4 more free BTC for me. I have underestimated the stupid before, now, i am prepared. Let them waste their money, i welcome the Ver&CO airdrop

Nope, probably found some SJW bullshit to shill somewhere else.
I am not missing him tbh.

I had Kong Dong of Penetration +12 googled cause wtf is that, but there is nothing NSFW in the pictures department, just some boring TA.

I am disappointed.

Just ignore this troll.

Newbie hell, shilling started for weekend btc->bch pump it seems...

Now, i just laugh at their arguments. Bitcoin is at an ATH, had an increase of ~8x since January.

The market has spoken; they are obviously do not believe in free market principles. Reality defies them daily, yet they are in a constant malignant fear cycle of "doom is coming".

Look at them.

Bigblock BCH is alive, they could just have traded their BTC to BCH, and use that network out of principle they so eager to say is the right one. But, they do not. They still want to change BTC, even though they now have their alternative, "fitting" their declared goals.

That shows me with a 100% certainty, that they are not acting on principle, and just out for control over other's to act freely, power over structure, like every socialist minded person is ("i know i am weak and will lose in a free competition scenario, so, in order to survive i must debase the successful ones, and change the play rules).