I am hoping for a drop. I imagine that the price will soar within the year, but there is too much downside risk to jump in heavier around $580. Notably, I worry about Wall Street market manipulators intentionally tanking the market because they have derivative contracts referenced to Bitcoin. For example, in the lead up to the mortgage bubble, Goldman Sachs took out naked credit default swaps via AIG banking on a market collapse that they were responsible for. Notably, the payout of the naked credit default swaps was 10x the underlying dimunition of value in the mortgage market. This occurred because with this type of derivative, one needn't actually own the referenced security, commodity, currency, etc. that they are referencing the "insurance policy" to in order to receive a full payout. Moreover, they can contract for protection that is 100x the value of the underlying asset/currency/security/etc. Since these are unregulated contractual agreements there are no clearinghouses and nobody knows what negative positions people are taking. Resultantly, I think the intrinsic value of this innovation is multiple times its current value and, yet, it is way too easy to manipulate for me to want to get in at this price.

A couple other thoughts

(1) This is why a post-auction dump isn't unfathomable (albeit extremely, extremely unlikely)... an institutional player could use the acquired BTCs as a weapon to tank the market short-term in order to collect on a derivatives contract several orders of magnitude greater than their holdings;

(2) I think the argument for auctioneers buying at a premium is mildly flawed because, although they can buy without impacting the market, they cannot extract liquidity on that many BTCs without dropping the market unless they slow played it and in that case they'd still be holding a lot of risk. They probably will be expecting a jump in prices if they get in, but they'll still run into a similar problem if they look to unload down the line -- they'd have to be a true believer AND somewhat risk blind... they cannot actually utilize that many BTCs unless acceptance goes through the roof OR a major external economic event (Chinese mainland wealth migration). In short, I say it is mildly flawed because I think the reason for expecting a premium is spot-on, but I think it is outweighed by this second factor... I'd expect the auctioneers to buy at a 10% discount.

Full disclosure -- I own a very small holding of BTC (10), that I got at just over $400 a pop. I am holding for the long-term, but hoping for a short-term dump for another entry point. I am very biased in this regard. I missed the boat a while back on the best entry points so take what I say with a grain of salt. I am just curious what others think. I am short-term a mixture of anxious and giddy and long-term hopeful.

B-I-N-G-O!!!! Welcome to the bloodbath!!!

I don't know if it could be this, but it would be pretty devious and would generally be a good omen for us. Perhaps, the person putting up the sell wall knows the auction price. Now, you may be thinking, well that means he is selling because the price is down. Perhaps. BUT, maybe he is actually trying to buy in front of the sell wall faster than he is trying to get purchased up. He might know that less steady hands will panic with the price stuck in place and so they'll undercut that price just slightly. Well, that gives a fine supply right in front of the wall of coins to purchase. This might also explain why the wall is able to "replenish itself." It is the same coins that were bought up at 598 that are now being sold at right around 599.9.

It's a thought. If that's what they are doing... pretty f---ing smart.

Did I win the competition!!!!!!!?!!!!?

People come up with some crackpot ideas to pass the time. That said, I think people are smarter than you give them credit for. I think the majority has switched into buy mode.

Plausible. Not likely due to the timing. But reasonable.

Quick hijack -- my apologies -- if I move BTCs from one exchange to another exchange is that a taxable moment (a realization event)? If not, the IRS is totally bluffing aren't they.

Thanks

Short-term sell-off on Thursday (bank clearing day on panic Friday afternoon trades), back up after that... probably into the 700s. Plenty of good news to guide this thing on up.

Yo, people... ease up off the conspiracy theories. A single bidder means a premium (securely receiving 30k coins off the market without a major price fluctuation during the buying process is more valuable than 3k). In short, we've only had good news of late, before the auction we were hanging around $666, and the auction was no an Armageddon scenario (if anything, probably over market if not substantially so). We're going up. If you sell in the next few days you are retarded. I wish I had more loose cash to buy. I am generally a pessimistic type, but if you are sitting on the sidelines I cannot think of a single rational reason why you'd think you missed the boat on the bull ride.

My take -- litecoin, although it isn't bitcoin, sell off on btc-e spooked some hands. Add on the fact that around the same time btc-e was having an inexplicable sell off (although much more modestly) of bitcoins and the other markets had to respond. What is unclear to me is how and why arbitrageurs haven't narrowed the margin between markets yet -- I expected that to occur faster. Anyways, the markets seem to be responding to each other rather than to extraneous real world matters. In the real world, bitcoin has had a fantastic day, today... like an amazingly fantastic day.

I'm buying!!!!! and buying and buying and buying... did I mention that I am buying?

I think we are ok. I can't speak for anybody else and perhaps this isn't even a majority event, but unless people had money sitting on a BTC exchange already, they probably panic bought on Friday realizing they had narrowly missed the interim bottom and probably did so through a service like Coinbase. If they fall into that camp -- like myself -- then they are waiting for their purchase to confirm before making another. I, my friends, am ready to buy (albeit I expect a short-term liquidation event on Thursday as people take profits).

So, my situation is that I bought at $585... I was hoping, kind of foolishly, for a lower low than 550 due to auction panic, but I felt the honest price was about 660 to 750 (the price was around 666 before the auction was announced, I expected the coins would go around market price and maybe a bit higher if the bidders were tactful, and the rest of the news was very positive).

Remember, the auction was a big publicity moment which means new blood and new blood takes a while longer to navigate through the process. This is my working hypothesis for the moment... it may be way wrong... we'll see.

There is no reason for a dump at all -- the news has been wonderful. And yet I have this sick feeling that we are going to have some dramatic movement like a flash crash or some other bull----

quote author=Asrael999 link=topic=178336.msg7669951#msg7669951 date=1404460591]

then stick some low ball bids in around $200-$300
[/quote]

Will do. Good thinking. I am sure my weird feeling is nothing, but just in case... really good thinking.

This strikes me as terrible day trading advice -- you are almost certainly bound to lose. For one, it may, but probably won't, drop to $580 to $600 so people would miss a buying opportunity. Additionally, if it hits $660, it may only ride up to $666 before the brake walls which are set up would go into effect and you'd probably fall back into a $630 well. In a nutshell, this is almost a sure fire losing strategy.

Buy low and sell high -- that doesn't mean you try to catch the absolute bottom... you might if you are lucky, but that's not always a feasible entry point especially without perfect information. Therefore, if the price is below what you think is a sort of intrinsic or baseline value, which it is right now by a bit, then you buy. Remember, we were at $660 before the auction news and the news until the recent FUD piece has all been amazingly positive. The European advisory is essentially meaningless because the infrastructure around this currency is growing and it's expansion is set in stone by means of investment and critical energy. Rather, the Europeans are simply telling the banks not to go crazy with the stuff, not to expand deep into derivatives with Bitcoin as a reference, not to distort the market, and not to hold all of their customers money in bitcoin until the exchanges upgrade beyond the security and stability measures they had back during the $10 to $100 days -- the exchanges have hardly changed in that time and the leverage on Bitfinex is f---ing incredible. Ergo, it's not too wild and the only thing that is scandalous is the news article titles that the media put on the story to get a few extra views. That said, the European mention of 51% attacks seemed goofy.

That all aside, I have an eerie feeling.

Crash 'O Clock!!!! Also known as Friday afternoons.

RealCoin seems like a joke, but may be problematic in the near term as it will distract funds that would otherwise go to Bitcoin and when it crashes it may make people even more distrusting of cryptos.

Exactly what does RealCoin offer? It is only exchangeable for the U.S. dollar which means that any international transactions still require currency exchange fees and delays. This guy's big, bright f---ing idea is WesternUnion. This is what Warren Buffett should be throwing his hands up and calling Western Union... not Bitcoin.

Also, what would motivate somebody to use this crypto domestically when there is limited market cap for dissolving the funds?

Also, it is moving too quickly to widespread adoption without accumulating market cap through, you guessed it, speculators. They are setting up ATMs and agreements with businesses who will be left with these things on their books until they can exchange them out. When they go to exchange them, because there is a limited market cap, the price will be tremendously distorted. In short, unless their is actually a reserve of dollars/gold/some other asset behind this crypto such that they can offer automatic exchange at some sort of fixed rate this is a complete non-starter. Even if the latter, you'll see fractional reserve activities, a run, and a bust (they'd have to just to make money on the venture and/or they'd have to charge so much in fees that you might as well just use a credit card and avoid the bull----). It strikes me as very stupid. Am I missing something or fundamentally wrong in some appreciable way? (honest question... some of you "old-timers" would know)

We might keep drifting down for a little while, but as a general rule I feel that these sell walls represent a buying opportunity. I say that because if I were honestly trying to unload coins rather than just manipulate the price then I'd do it piecemeal in several smaller bids so as to have as minimal an impact on prices as possible (and it is also quicker because you don't get front ran so much by panic sellers). So, unless these sell wall guys are complete idiots, there seems to be market manipulation. The manipulation has a downward, not an upward, impact on prices making coins cheaper in a way that they know and that enables accumulation (and even if some of their coins get bought out from them, there are still more people front-running their walls and other exchanges responding to the impact of the walls on the one exchange, for them to pick up more coins in small increments). Ergo, whenever I see these things I interpret it as a buying opportunity as the only reason why somebody would be doing it (absent it being government level manipulation which it doesn't appear to be... it would be thousands rather than hundreds of coins) is because they think the true valuation of the coin is higher than where they set the wall.

Could they get dicked over doing this... perhaps, but not at this volume level. Anyhow, I am fairly new, but this strategy has yet to fail me over the past two months... I buy into these sell walls every chance I get.

Thus, maybe I'd sell if I were you if you expect this to go on for a little while longer, but I'd have an eye towards jumping right back into the game soon.

I don't really mind if they hold the wall there or play these games for a while. It allows me to buy more than I would otherwise be able to. It's kind of groovy actually.

Keep buying into the wall. Let's break this thing down. I love running into these walls because the only reason why you'd put up a sell wall is to bluff because you think it is more valuable -- you want people to front run you. This guys is losing his lunch money right now with that tactic and I am loving it. Eat the wall!!!!!!!!

And we are all ready for launch!!! Buckle you seat belts!!!

Now if China can just clear their wall... it is a 200 block... =S

Noooo Great Wall of China!!!

Party is over. The Chinese Wall has been rebuilt. Show is over.

We might finish the day in the 640s. Considering where we started the day, that would be fine with me. Always hoping for more, though.

There is a hell of a lot of action today, brother. Looks like the Chinese wall got lowered and then got removed. Either these guys with big pockets have no clue what the hell they are doing or they are working with an IQ several orders of magnitude greater than most.

Yea... what the hell is going on. The Chinese sell wall got moved from 3860 to 3855 and a small dip ensued. Suddenly, the sell wall got removed altogether and there is nothing really impeding a step upwards. But it is so goofy as to make you wonder.

Well, the Bulgarians are now on board. Obviously, it's moon time.

The Chinese are coming, the Chinese are coming... buy buy buy buy buy panic buy ahhhhhh holy s--- must buy now!!!!! BUYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This announcement was brought to you by the emergency broadcast system. If this were really an emergency... you'd probably not be using your computer, television, or radio right now.

Chinese super wall... 3500 BTC... Crash time

And pulled. Maybe a typographical error?

This.

Things just sped up

Google Trend for China is reading zero for the month, but not that for any other country. Anybody know if something is going on that we didn't catch wind of?

Crashing into the low 500s by this time next week. The pressure seems to be more towards the downside and we all know that there is bad news coming -- Bitfinex isn't prepared for the 21st, Lawsky... even if it turns out to be good news... will be confusing enough to seem like bad news initially, China seems bored, and the degree of market manipulation has seemed to intensify as of late. Sprinkle a little FUD on top of this along with the larger batch of Silk Road coins strung around the market's next like an albatross (and the fact that we had a bump following not even really knowing what the bid price was on the smaller batch bitcoin auction... we just extrapolated out our backsides). Oh yes, and add in the fact that even with great news we can't seem to break towards the upside... if we are going anywhere near term it is down.

By the way, I am generally positive for our long term and even 6 months out prospects. But, next couple weeks look like they'll be tough going.

Cool story bro. Hey, I'm not saying it will be the end of days or anything, but I think we are about to get a buying opportunity... it might be the last good one. It's up to you to decide whether the glass is half empty or half full, but we both know in the very short-term (next week or so) downside odds are greater than upside odds. Think about the volume for instance... it says two things -- (1) nobody is all that excited to buy right now; and (2) smarter money is trying to unwind their positions without having everybody race out of the auditorium. Also, think about the good news we've received lately... it has had zero effect. By contrast, even the weak FUD piece by the European Central Bank caused a 4 to 5% drop. Now, we have a market situation with Bitfinex that could go south very quickly and we know the regulators will have harsh sounding cautions that won't amount to anything in practical effect (it'll be a green light... good news... that will sound like a red light).

So, I sold my (pretty modest) stash of 12 coins (I am relatively poor but not terribly so) this morning. I am waiting until sometime mid next week to re-enter. You can cheerlead all you want, but have fun losing money doing that (unless you are just hodling very long-term in which point it is probably irrelevant). Thanks, have a nice day.

You've just defined "speculation."

Fair point. That is seriously what I think, but I could see how calling for a 15% to 20% drop would seem a bit obtuse.

Word. I did sell them all. Mind you, I am looking at sometime next week as a reentry point... maybe I can get myself more than 12 (that would be sweet!). After that, I expect rampant awesomeness only.

Hey bro. I will definitely post when I buy back in. Yea, the money I am playing with is not really play money so I am a bit more risk averse, playing a hunch that we'll get a dip b/c: (1) volume is abysmal; (2) good news seems to have no effect (and a lot of it is already priced in); (3) bad news still does have an effect (European Central Bank did nothing and yet we still dropped 30 or 40 points) -- the Lawsky should be a similar event where absolutely nothing happens and we still get a dip due to harsh words about terrorism, fraud, yaddie yaddie yadda bs; and (4) the Bitfinex thing actually spooks me although, more than likely, it will be a non-event (but I think we'd at least get a mini dip out of concern and/or some jack--- trying to actually precipitate a flash crash). Ergo, I definitely think within a couple weeks we'll be at the same point or higher, but I'd be surprised if there weren't some bargains to be had... and it is also rare that you have a heads up on a potential black swan event (which is still probably at less than a 1 percent chance)... I'm just playing the hand that I see in the most reasonable way.

I'll be buying back shortly and you guys can smack me around when the price is $700 at that time. =D

Friday has been a big volume day the past few weeks specifically and I expect this trend to continue. Lately, we get a Friday rally with a week of at least no bad news and no expected news over the weekend. So, there's reason to look at today's positive bump as a symbol of a friendly Friday.

As I noted before, I am staying out this week because Bitfinex has a big day early next week that I am not sure they are prepared for. If I had to guess what would happen I'd expect one of three things:

(1) Small drop tomorrow with an eye towards Monday followed by a solid rally on Monday when the apocalypse doesn't occur. Odds - 60ish%
(2) Drop tomorrow with apocalypse on Monday. Odds - 1ish%
(3) Up tomorrow in regular week closing fashion as people just assume any issue on Monday is FUD and it turns out to be just that with maybe a small ten point jump early next week. Odds - 40ish%

My thoughts - I'll jump back in at the start of next week when the picture looks a little clearer. At that time, if I am lucky, coins will be cheap. More likely, they'll be within ten points give or take of where they are now (and that will neither make me nor break me).


Anyhow, that thought aside, tomorrow will probably be a more entertaining day (nothing earth shattering, but entertaining) -- Maybe a 30 point swing in either direction from today's value. Best of luck to all in making their educated guesses.

Nice! We just need a war on Bitcoin and a First Lady to tell us "just say no" and we'll be off to the races.

By the way, before anybody tackles me for being a purveyor of FUD, I am presently down a point from my short-term exit the other day and, albeit lightly (in terms of volume), today's Chinese traders seem to be favoring the idea that I am misguided in my views. I admit and accept these. I am just playing a hunch/guess and acknowledge that I can easily get burnt in the process. Happy trading all. We need more comments and festivities on this Board, by the way. Otherwise I'll have to go back to warring against oppressive fiat overlords in my life... and nobody really wants to see that happen. Well, then again, it is kind of fun.

What I don't get is this. If somebody either day trades or even, God forbid, moves in and out a few times they are castigated on here and told that the gods will skullf--- them by leading to them missing a thousand point jump -- thus, everybody hodls and this behavior is reinforced in the group through negative stimuli and punishing posts. BUT, then you complain about there being no volume. THEN, you wonder why amazing news leads to a five point turn. THEN, you wonder where the bubble is.

You know why there isn't a bubble? Hoarding! It is deflationary... but not only in the way you hope for it to be. So, you want a bubble... grow some balls, make some moves, and don't get irritated at the people making moves. Because you know what, we ought to be at 800 today... the Dell news is extremely positive news for broad scale adoption and news like this, in any other functioning market, projects towards who else would be adopting next. In a nutshell, don't give people grief for facilitating functioning markets. Play your hand, cut the group psychosis s--- because over the past few months it has cost us all a lot of money.

They can hold if they want... just the peer pressure aspect of it I find disconcerting. Also, it is a project towards disrupting fiat currency and thus to have applications in commerce. If it is to have applications in commerce that means it isn't hoarded (at least not totally) because then it never makes its way into commerce. Additionally, there exists a large contingent of hoarders who are expecting the price to rise exponentially and have no deeper affinity to the cause of bitcoin than a john has to a nightwalker -- they're just in it because they think they might get lucky to retire on it... and yet the price does not rise exponentially because there is no upward volatility on good news because these guys are stifling that very volume (almost an unwitting, even more than normal, tragedy of the commons type scenario).

Anyhow, it is what it is... but I really wish people would at least think about the ramifications of the ideas they push a little more.

Also, I should say that your position is entirely reasonable, but I just disagree that short-term and long-term exist in a vacuum. What's the saying, you can't start a fire without a spark... we've had a lot of news that should have been a spark (the short-term stuff), but what I am concerned about is whether we aren't pour water on the matches.

Fair.

We'll be at 645 in t-minus three hours. We need to figure out how to get more volume, though.

Rupert Murdoch aiming to buyout CNN in order to have a cable news monopoly = impending collapse of society. Buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy!!!!!!!!!!!!!

P.S. -- CNN already kinda sucks, but Jeez.

It won't be as slowly as you think. Note that the kick up in volume right by the Chinese right after the Dell news was at about 1 in the morning. Wait for China to wake up... they are the higher volume players... It seems like China is the driver and Stamp traders don't want to stray too far away and be stuck out on a limb. I bought back in today contrary to my initial plan... the price is still cheap given the news... it really is pretty big news.

P.S. - Dell computers are garbage... but their company is ginormous.

And I lean closer to a bear in most situations (I am bullish long-term, but still bearish in comparison to most) and I am telling you that right now I think we are way undervalued.

I don't think anybody expected the Lawsky situation to be any better than it was. Moreover, the general tenor is positive, towards adoption, and encourages feedback from users. So, I think that the Lawsky was more a non-event that was already priced in. And, in fact, if anything, it would weigh ever so slightly positive because whenever there is a government announcement there is the risk of a negative surprise. There was no such major negative surprise. Thus, I think you are off on this one.

By the way... it is time to roll out the Ron Paul meme... because it is happening (or at least starting to).

Touché. I was thinking about the really crumby Dell computers that never really work at my college.

And it appears to have un-happened as quickly as it was ramping up to happen. This is starting to be a predictable theme. =S

Plot against the leveraged guys?

Word.

I think we are seeing softness, today (specifically), due to concerns about the Bitfinex deleveraging policy change (notice the asymmetry in their order book, and, to a lesser extent, on BTC-e. Thus, while China is normally the driver and Bitstamp a secondary driver, the concern over a liquidation event seems to be keeping everybody in check. Once today passes (like many of the imagined dark clouds), we should get some strong upward movement.

Note also, in looking at the Bitfinex order book that those are people who have been involved in Bitcoin already who know about it and there are literally tens of millions of dollars placed on extremely short bids (10% or more below market) in hopes of catching a flash crash, today. Frankly, it is absolutely f---ing amazing the price is as robust as it is. I thought we'd be skirting 600 by today (and I also think we may be at 700 by the end of the week).

It's a trap. Boom time is coming... for at least another 18 to 36 hours, though (at the earliest). Until then, grab a novel!!!

There is already more juice in the bid side on Stamp than the ask side. On Bitfinex, there is an opposite asymmetry as people are trying to catch a flash crash. Once people stop screwing around with the flash crash hope of getting uber cheap coins, might we get a hearty bump? (at least a 20-30 pointer)?

Of course he is right, to a degree. Quantitative and technical analysis are useless unless integrated into a broader narrative (see S&P's models for rating mortgage backed securities back in 2006... the math wasn't wrong but it existed in a vacuum away from the broader narrative so it didn't appropriately capture the full range of contingencies). The question is, which one should lead (and is this a fixed answer)? Should you come up with a narrative and the test it against the technical analysis? Or should you use the technical analysis and charts to try to identify a trend and thereafter come up with an explanation? Or do you just entirely wing it by your balls, like most of us, and then come up with a series of post hoc rationalizations thereafter to explain why you did what you did so you can sleep at night.

P.S. -- Late August/early September should be a great time. It is possible we'll get the ETF by then (probably not, but possible), the broader economy usually starts to hit the s----er around this time (far enough away from tax return spending sprees and Christmas with no holidays coming up), and, most importantly, student loans drop. The latter, I think, would be an even bigger deal if we had a less sketchy swaps market. Imagine, if you are a student, being able to at least somewhat safely secure a fixed rate on the student loans dedicated to living expenses several months down the road (because it all hits at once) and as such being able to counteract the impact of interest accruing during your studies (for graduate students that happens). It really is too good to be true and people would find a way to get screwed, but it would be nice.

Oh yea, and actually most importantly, China's economy is starting to look terrible and their social institutions appear to be fracturing. Yea, we'll get a run.

The hell is wrong with these people with their graphs and lines that don't predict a damn thing. It is like those guys that predict the end of the world every year... when the world doesn't end instead of just saying they don't know what the hell they're talking about, they just beat the drum a little louder and suggest it will be the next year.

Listen, if you keep posting graphs that say there is going to be a breakout and there is no breakout or every time that you draw one you say the price will go up and it goes down (or vice versa) and you tend to be right only about 50% of the time... you prediction model ain't too good there slick. Maybe, just maybe, it's all bull---- akin to Tarot cards or them dot pictures that the psychiatrist asks you to interpret into a picture (Google appears to be telling me it is called a Roscharch test... I can neither confirm nor deny independently this fact, though, at this time).

Paul Giamatti as Joe Gould in Cinderella Man (2005) -- "Unbelievable bulls---!!"

He could go substantially in and then hedge with about 10% of it using low ball bids so he doesn't get burnt. This would work even if there was a slow to moderate fizzle. Frankly, we'll either fly or it will be a slow to moderate fizzle... we've gained too much steam to be banned, or at least banned to any practical effect, by the key governments now (we've gone past the Prohibition era of our development). So yea, I'd say give it a whirl, but do hedge in some sort of fashion.

Note also that the economy is terrible, we've had a temporary kick up in activity because the influx of consumer credit that always follows from April 15th (tax returns) to about September until people have had a chance to re-screw up their credit scores. In the meantime, the banks won't get free money forever that they can lend to us at interest, there is a 1.2 trillion student loan bubble sitting in the background, and we've had a return of the mortgage crisis games through the use of rental backed securitization and derivatives (with a more pronounced impact on the consumer as rents in every major city have shot up 30% or more). The ---- is going to tank hard. Oh, if he is going to invest in stock... invest in Hormel (symbol HRL)... they are cash rich (notwithstanding our dislike for fiat, here, that is always smart entering a deflationary set up because you can swoop in and buy assets cheap) and they sell inferior goods (ham, spam, and other mystery meats).

Yay!!! I set off a s--- storm before going to sleep. What a delightful thing to wake up to. Anyhow, them graphs and lines (technical analysis) don't work for s---. No, it isn't because I haven't learned how to use and appreciate the inner-beauty of graphs and lines. Part of me just wants to say it is simply because the s--- is useless and akin to interpretive dance on paper. But, I suppose in some markets it will tee you off trend... Here, however, with the volume fluctuations, the sensitivity (and recently changing sensitivity) of the market to outside forces and news, and other non-traditional behaviors of niche market v. established market participants... the f---ing lines are meaningless. Got it. You peeps keep posting groovy looking graphs and sometimes two people will say a graph says the price is going to $5000 and another two people will say that the graph says the price is going to zero and low and behold the price stays the exact f---ing same. It's funny, but Jesus.

Oh, and the bastardization of Fibonacci is another event occurring. Even the mentally ill man at the bookstore that takes paper towels and turns them into intricate flowers is but a Fibonacci adherent. I seriously feel bad for Fibonacci.

Logical Fallacy, but nice GIF.

Oh yes, I am just a dumb--- because we base the importance of messages on this board based on seniority rather than the merits or demerits of the observation. Of course, that mode of thinking contravenes the espoused views of many if not all Bitcoin proponents.

Oh and I looked back at the earlier posts... you are the little ten-year old graph boy who has a new depiction each day and hasn't the slightest clue what the f--- he is doing. That's fun. Good luck with that. =D

I am not mad, I am actually sitting in a coffee shop laughing as I wait for my girlfriend to finish up an interview across the street. That said, great use of another classical logical fallacy... asking the other person why they are so upset or overheated. You are really good at doing things that are repugnant to logic, aren't you?

Doubtful rube, highly doubtful.

Hey, I am not picking on individuals -- well, maybe Empowering a bit because he decided to try to pick an argument over it. If your graph is right (and was right beforehand rather than to support some post-hoc rationalization) then I am happy for you. In this specific market, to be frank, I get a lot more out of order book balances and volume than a bunch of squiggly lines on a computer screen (I guess you could always convert the data into squiggly lines if you were so disposed, but that's neither here nor there) -- again, the non-snarky reason is that there is absolutely nothing wrong with your (broader you, not you specifically) technical analysis at all, but rather this is an atypical market.

I had actually gone to delete my post when you posted this. However, this very much confirms I should have just left it there. Let's agree to dislike each other and proceed accordingly. And you really are just terribly condescending.

Thoughtful. I dig it. Good luck, man!!

Da Bulls v. Da Bears

https://screen.yahoo.com/bill-swerskis-super-fans-da-000000191.html   

Why you mad, bro? I got burnt this week because I bought back heavier on the good news only to get chopped down to size, but that's what happens in markets. Arguably, the news was priced in. More perniciously, there is market manipulation because this is a market largely unfettered by regulations (something that has tremendous benefits and setbacks). You win some, you lose some. Hopefully we get a kick back in the upward direction and your situation improves. But, you're an adult in an unregulated, wild west market by choice knowing that you are going to have fair weather investors and market manipulators. Think. Plan. Focus long-term (whether that be bullish... yay, you can buy more now... or bearish our of concern about investor irrationality). Play your (long-term) hand.

A rational thought. However, that is misleading because there was a short-term price discount due to fears associated with the Silkroad auction. On the 60 day (actually, about 55 day) we are down about 10%. And on the one year we are doing just fine. It depends on what you use as your anchor.

I kind of feel sorry for you, bro. It's damn near impossible not to lose a ton of money, lately, due to shenanigans (even if you sat on and held). There is also a strange group psychology effect of this board that does make people do strange things. Still, overwhelmingly, the balance is between: (a) do you see bitcoin being successful long-term (as a theoretical matter, this would be an almost absolute, yes) v. (b) do you think the scammers, pumpers, manipulators, government, fud purveyors, uber-bulls and bears, trolls, etc. will find a way to destroy a beautiful thing because it suits their personal interest.

In some ways, that makes bitcoin so interesting -- the contrasts between the espoused libertarian individuality and merit that led this to rise and the fact that we need some collectivism, cooperation, and good faith for this thing to really blossom. Like anything revolutionary, there are some internal contradictions, but that doesn't mean it is greater than the whole. So, as I said before and as I've ranted on this page in the past, play the cards as you see them because you have your own bills to pay and life to live. Good luck on whatever you decide to do.

Wow team, you all must really be depressed to refuse to write anything in the midst of a 2000 coin Chinese pump (which doesn't even get us close to where we were, yesterday, but still). Cheer up!!

Order books look more balanced... seems the crowd is favoring a bounce back, but who the hell knows what the whales are planning.

We're lucky we are only down as much as we are considering the number of coins that flew off the board. I don't see what the end game could be of selling off a few thousand coins -- not really much to gain by doing that if you think the market is going up and it's not like the sell wall game where you are just buying up coins on the cheap in front of the wall. Spooky s---.

I thought that, too, but look at the OkCoin chart... they started to dive about a half-hour before BFX ever did. Hence, the number I used (about 3000 on OKCoin stretched over an hour, 3000 on Huobi in a 30 minute span, and a chunk out of BFX).

This just in... Bitcoin (personified) has been listening to Bruce Springsteen, again. Somebody really needs to put him on to the boss's later works.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fdZWbIsrFk   (Bruce Springsteen -- "I'm Going Down")

Bruce Springsteen... damn you!!!!

Well, if I am going to lose money, I might as well have a few laughs at the expense of Steven Seagal

Yay!!! It's a meme-off!!!! (Meme-offs are always bullish)

Did somebody just make a Free Willy joke? If so... nicely done.

I think we need to stop making Bitcoin mainstream and start catering to the underworld. Want to dodge taxes on your illegal moonshine so that you can make money to order some crack cocaine online... we want you (to be Mayor of Toronto). This is mostly a joke, but honestly, we were doing a hell of a lot better before all of these classy, sophisticated, Wall Street types got involved and told us how they were going to revolutionize blah de blah blah. In a nutshell, a lot of these "legitimate" sources are actually just looters whereas previously we had a true focus on niche commerce. I mean, who the hell is excited over a 3% discount on gift certificates (and the prospects of buying gift certificates you didn't even want) or a 5% discount on this or that good but only if you buy from the official vendor (translate as 50% marked up). Why the hell did we allow ourselves to be co-opted by the man?

Or to put it another way... why are we letting the man turn Bitcoin into Disney dollars? I mean, in the words of Dave Chappelle, if you "can't buy weed and pussy with [it]" (anymore) then it loses some of its value.

You 100:1 on Finex, Shroomy? Cheer up, mate.

Bitcoin is listening to Bruce Springsteen, again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fdZWbIsrFk  ("I'm going down" - Bruce Springsteen)

We are down about 8% on the week (from about $630 to $578) and this is after a lot of long positions were feeling a squeeze from an extended sideways market. As such, it is fair to say that short-term risk is substantially heightened. At the same time, the price is starting to look pretty attractive. At least there is more entertainment to go along with me losing money.

Entirely the right idea... I believe it might be a tad premature. But so entirely the right idea.

Any thoughts on what BTC might do when the U.S. announces that it is in a technical recession coming this Wednesday? Anybody think this could possibly move the dial or only in theory?

Not confirmed at all. I just think he is right.

I don't think we are done going down quite yet. There hasn't really been a substantial expansion of the base, leveraging is being reined back in (and is abut to pop), sentiments aren't so rosy, and the order book, notwithstanding seeming stacked for lift-off, keeps falling apart at the whiff of a downdraft. Also, the manipulators are trying to move the centerline of expectations so that when they enter a bigger position into the market they can do it on the cheap. It's not all bearish, but don't expect a lot for a while.

Put another way... feel free to buy (you don't have to find the absolute bottom if you think we are there or close enough), but realize that the market has been more screwy than normal and don't bet the farm one way or another.

I know... the supports are a little bit illusory. It seems like they are less there for support as much as they are there to guide the market. Place them in one spot... then pull them down, watch people panic, repeat and buy cheap.

The Gox s--- is getting old. If you don't want to risk that, there are safer exchanges and options for getting your coins that have been developed. I am not terribly bullish on the price due to overleveraging, but the Gox thing is turning into a straw man. Yes, Karpales probably stole all of them and is a terrible prick -- it happens. Now, let's focus on actual concerns:
(1) Wall Street = new buyers but also more manipulation;
(2) Unwinding of leveraging on some exchanges while it picks up on other exchanges;
(3) Do we need a black market (because a 5% discount from Dell doesn't really do it for me when I, along with most people tech savvy enough to even know what Bitcoin is, buy directly from the developers retail because we know that there is a price mark up); and
(4) What additional changes can be done to make Bitcoin a more attractive option to the unbanked as well as study abroad students who are trying to send a portion of their student loans back home (either for family or, more commonly, for summer expenses)

Those... those are real questions. This Gox s--- isn't even worth being called FUD because nobody cares (obviously it is terrible what happened and people care about it not happening again, but nobody cares about the conspiracy theory side of it because that has zero to do with present security conditions).

It will bounce back. The question is, where will it bounce back from. Nobody knows this... please don't do something crazy like leverage trying to find a bottom. This is supposed to be fun. It isn't supposed to make you homeless. Too much manipulation to rely on basic logic, here.

This (probably) isn't the real bounce back. Patience is a virtue. There is no honor in being the martyr who tried to guess the bottom. I am buying back in either on a true catastrophe or if we get a pop back to the 585 to 590 range. I don't trust this bounce.

No. I think it will get worse before it gets better. But hell no.

I suspect the bounce on Bitfinex was a doubling down. We might have a martyr soon.

Trap!!!! Too much leverage... too much leverage left to burn through. Unless you think Wall Street is composed of charitable foundations, they are going to watch those leveraged out burn. Full cynicism mode. We'll hit an all-time high within the next six months, but some s--- is going to go down first.

This guy doesn't even have national bearish tendencies. I'll be the first person to tell you that I am a good guy and all but paranoid as f---. This guy, though... not so much.

Yea, leverage on Bitfinex increased $400,000 during this period of time. I don't think this one is built to last. Also, the buying really has been limited mainly to Bitfinex and China.

Depends. They might be counting on GABI entering in on Friday and might figure that they can outlast the pain. At the same time, I think the scale of their losses and wind downs > than GABI. But it does depend. It isn't entirely outside the realm of possibility that they're gamble could pay off. I wouldn't do it, but that doesn't make it crazy.

Well, that would be bad because they could dump again... especially since even with heavy buying the price is still uber depressed.

The order book is too hot, too. More resistance for going up than down (within the day's range). There is nothing to see, here.

Yet another $100,000 of leverage on Bitfinex. Bold move mofos. Bold move.

Back over $30 million in swaps on Bitfinex. I guess we haven't learned our lesson yet. Hogs get slaughtered.

Very few if not zero. Why would you short when you could simply low bid without the cost or substantial risk? Especially with the credit bubble and the potential for a cascading effect (which seems exceedingly less likely to occur, of course). I mean, at worse you net zero. If they shorted on leverage they deserve to get burnt (and I always feel for the gambler, but geez, that would just be so stupid).

And if she'd sleep with me, I'd never ask for anything ever again, God!

Pretty sure I would be able to die happy... make-up or not make-up.

Why can't it be both. She is leaning against a wall, is she not?

We know nothing!!

Paul George's near self-amputation today... what do we think, gang... is that a bullish or a bearish omen?

And in breaking news... s--- just got real.

I am very bearish in the near-term. A whale has pretty obviously set up a bid wall that is so substantial that it shouldn't be breached or tested in order to sell off his holdings in front of that wall at an artificially inflated price. However, even with that market manipulation, the wall was tested and broken leading the whale to establish a wall twice the size now. Moreover, even with what is visually an insurmountable wall, the price has nonetheless stagnated -- we normally get a pop when we know it looks like there is a floor on the market.

So, this says to me that for all of the optimistic words on here that the average bitcoiner is not all that optimistic in the near term (weeks ago we would have thought of these prices as a steal and with the floor, if the market was steadier, you'd know the price couldn't go lower). Thus, exactly what sort of hell is going to break loose when the whale pulls the wall after selling off his load?

That's my take on what we are looking at. I traditionally lean bearish (on all things -- it's a personality trait), though, so take it with a grain of salt.

It may... I think $2000 is a more reasonable one year high water mark (just for psychological reasons... obviously it wouldn't seem high if you were looking at mBTC or market cap, but the average Joe won't look at those).

However, not this week.

Signed,
Random Paranoid Dude who Loves Bitcoin but is still a Random Paranoid Dude

Interesting. My interpretation of the situation is almost the exact opposite just because by having the huge wall he is essentially increasing his cost of entry by holding the market up... the only person/entity that would have such an interest to do that would be an exchange. On the flip, you are right that the shorts are getting murdered right now waiting... also a lot of them probably abandoned ship because there is usually a bounce after a wall of that magnitude has been inserted. I guess what was more puzzling to me is the lack of volume, particularly upward volume, following placement of the wall. I mean, everything is in place to go up, but it seems like people aren't biting and that makes me wonder about their appraisal of the current value or near-term prospects.

I might be wrong though and your point is a very valid interpretation also.

Well, we jumped 3620 on Huobi, but only by an inch. I am even more uber-bearish at this point. The table is set and there are no buyers coming to the table even with an artificial floor in place. Twist it whichever way you want, but demand right now and at this price is completely s---. I guess that's what happens when leverage gets tightened (although we'll get a ramp back up as more leverage comes on line).

This I don't understand. So, a guy sets a floor which causes the price to be higher than it would otherwise be to buy into... moreover, the multitude of volume is sells/asks not bids/buys in front of that wall... and yet people keep saying this guy is accumulating. This just makes no sense to me whatsoever. First, why would he make his price of entry higher. Second, how is he accumulating if most of the volume is asks in front of that wall (I guess every deal has two sides, but it looks like somebody is dumping in front of an artificial wall until, every now and then, somebody sacks up and calls bull----).

So, pardon me for using logic, but what the hell is everybody else seeing that I'm not. Is somebody tracking which wallet the coins are all going to or something that lets them know somebody is accumulating. Because, frankly, I don't see accumulating (or much interest in buying at this price notwithstanding there being an artificial floor to boost prices). Did I somehow land in bizarro-land. I am almost starting to question my sanity because what I am seeing is so literally the opposite of what poster after poster is writing.

Well, that explanation makes sense. I just assumed he had a ton of coins (that he could sell in front of the wall) AND a ton of money that he could put up to set the wall. But, what you are saying makes sense since he has been adding more and more to the wall. Thanks for the response.

I think whatever is going on that it is the same cat. I just don't see how he is managing to get these, frankly, magnificently low prices. I'd think you'd use a giant and insurmountable ask wall to drum down price expectations, buy in front of that, and then add those that you just bought to a secondary wall at an even lower price until you walked the market down. He seems to be doing the opposite if you are right and is still getting super sweet prices. It makes no sense why BTCs are this cheap right now.

That was my initial thought, too. I also haven't the slightest clue why there is no buying action when you have a constantly reinforcing price floor, too, and a price that is much cheaper than we had a couple weeks ago. Ok, back to bizarro-land.

Yea way too reasonable. By the way, I wasn't saying that he was having people buy from his asks... actually, he is doing the opposite. I was saying if I was a whale, I would have played it that way (and that would make me a bastard, but I'd be doing everything possible to keep my entry price as low as possible).

I guess the other thing is that I assume whales possess not only a high IQ, but are also devious -- I mean, how else did they get all of that money. But, maybe that is the false assumption. Maybe he just wants to buy a s--- ton of coins and that's that.

A three year banking relationship cut off over night with no news, no press release, no explanation, and in the wake of sputtering bids on the major exchange for the West. Ummm, sure, nothing big going on there. Jesus.

So, to recap:

Things going well:
(1) Major retailer adoptions;
(2) Some goof buying a ton of coins for more than he needs to on Huobi;
(3) ETFs galore coming to town soon;
(4) Chinese leveraging about to get really f---ing ridiculous (which is good for at least an initial spike)

Things not going well:
(1) Bitstamp, and Coinbase by association, just got really flaky really quickly with at least (and probably only) a temporary gap in liquidity should a true crisis ensue resulting;
(2) NY and Russian FUD fest;
(3) BTC-e's insurance on shorts are run identical to the NYSE in 1987;
(4) Bitfinex... lololololololololololololol

Summary of Expectations:
(1) Probably a slow and steady upward tick; BUT
(2) The exchanges seem to be more vulnerable to an outside shock than they've been in past years.

So, you'll either make a very modest amount in the next couple of weeks (speeding up to a rocket launch by mid-September) OR you will lose everything. Ummm, back to the f---ing sidelines I go.

Somebody should get the "it's unhappening" and "bloodbath" memes prepared for the next 24-hours. Book it. S--- is about to get real, real.

Mid-September will be phenomenal, though. Next 24 hours, though, I call bloodbath.

Truth. Lately, it has been Fridays, though. I think that is when one of the major retailers converts their coins to fiat. In the big picture, that's ok -- major adoption is a good thing and that is essentially just growing pains. They'll figure out how to more discretely unload and/or they might make provisions to keep their coins rather than cash them out (such as by, as some retailers are doing, offering their employees bonuses in Bitcoin). So, regardless, I would have expected some downward pressure tomorrow, but, again, in the big picture that is due to a really, really, really good thing.

We'll get a small dip just because of retailer unloading (a good thing in the big picture, but not so good right now), the Bitstamp thing is going to spook people, and due to leveraging and everything else it could get a little ugly... at best, we'll be back to $580 tomorrow. At worst, we'll retest the recent low and might cave a little below it. I don't see an end of days scenario, but I expect a little blood. Then again, if the Huobi bull pulls back then we could fall off the table due to liquidity -- still, not banking on that.

Well, making bold predictions spices things up if nothing else. I am 99% certain I haven't the slightest clue what I am talking about, but I've been right a lot lately which has been surprising even me. We'll definitely chat on it in 48. I'll prepare to take crow if I am wrong... prepare the gauntlet.

If we had a lot of liquidity and a strong buy sentiment, I'd think it would have no effect on prices whatsoever. But, bids are soft, retailers will whack us slightly tomorrow (I think), and longs have been in a slow burn for quite some time... I just don't think it will take as much as normal. We'll scope it out in a couple days.

Well, Bitfinex will just freeze the market and probably roll back at least some trades if things get out of hand. BTC-e will probably let it play out, though... I have a fleeting suspicion they might even have to because Plus500 is a third party. Also, their business model doesn't depend on swaps like Bitfinex so they don't care who gets burnt (whereas the longs on Bitfinex are essentially too big to (totally) fail). So, if that's the case, then BTC-e looks like the NYSE during 1987 per Michael Lewis's "Panic: The Story of Modern Financial Insanity" chronicled on pages 26 through 28. I will be the first to admit that this is a very tenuous and borderline bull---- source to be citing. But, gotta live a little.

Note, I am also making a huge assumption on Plus500's hedging strategy. They could possibly be hedging outside of the market... the Plus500 longs are, after all, referenced to but I believe separate from the market.

Word! This makes things so much more fun! I love the spirit!

Yes, we have a fine creamy latte-like blend... did anybody bring any sugar to this party?

Oh shoot, we should have a drinking game... bears take a shot every time somebody mentions a train or a rocket. Bulls drink every time Fallling posts.

Wow... I am not just going to be wrong... I am going to be fantastically wrong. Wow.

Bloodbath back on? Way too early to tell... but the leveraged land of OKCoin is picking up steam towards a rout.

And the Ethereum account remains fairly stable... 1,150 BTCs out the other day, but none since.

Litecoin is getting murdered. Wowowowowowowow!!!

China isn't even awake, yet. We could quickly run in either direction, right now. My gut says we are going to move back to the 590 range, but who the hell knows.

Ballsy... I think I am going to wait until China wakes up and see how they respond to the damage (which is more than just the price because some really heavy walls got ran over).

I am expecting in this small wall environment a lot of volatility in one direction or the other in the next 24 hours. Probably up. No telling for sure.

Holy s--- (mind you that it doesn't tell the whole story because there is other money on the exchange that might not be tied to a bid). But still... holy s---

Entirely possible. We keep hitting new lows. Not as much movement as earlier, but we haven't confirmed a bottom, yet, and the walls are very insubstantial at this point.

I'd see what China does first and make sure we are at a bottom. That said, buy low and sell high... this play makes sense, but I'm simply not quite ballsy enough to go long quite yet.

Time in Shanghai is 6:47 A.M. Waiting until either an obvious signal or until around 9 or 10 A.M.

OKCoin volume is comparable/greater than Huobi right now. If 3500 is cracked on OKCoin then the sirens go on.

A good thought. There really isn't much in terms of bids and asks holding the price either way. I tend to buy on the way back up rather than into a rout even if it means I lose out a little bit. Especially with the lack of tethering right now.

One thing I have to say about the permabears on here. They are an entertaining bunch.

Back to 3500 on OKCoin... dun dun dun!!! Below... panic. panic sell!!!

I am not even being a smarta--... seriously, there isn't much holding us right now... borderline panic zone.

My concern is depth. This could get out of hand at this point... there isn't much standing in the way. We are one fat fingered f--- from a problem.

I know... I am surprised we haven't seen movement on Huobi or BTC China... I don't know if it is people are just sleeping or if they aren't buying the price. I've never seen that much divergence between the two before, though.

OKCoin... where high leverage and no market depth happens. Fail!

Requiem for a Dream Song -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAzTIKoF8rA

Helps at least put you in the mood for the dump.

Do I think we are oversold? Yes. I thought so two days ago but didn't buy up then. Why? Because we haven't found a bottom. I'm waiting to see what shenanigans occur on the Chinese exchanges... just like I have been waiting the past two days.

For those who say I am going to miss out on a rally? No. It doesn't jump 100 points in 15 minutes... it can jump fast... it won't jump that fast. So, if I miss out on 20% of the rally but 80 to 90% of the losses... well I'd call that a win.

Hahahahahaha... Dump3er cracks me up. Probably my favorite bear.

Also, Ethereum, when they dump, seem to be doing it through the market and seem to be doing 1,000 chunks at once.

Look at the blockchain... they move from the deposit wallet to what is presumably an exchange wallet and then it goes to a different third party on each of the trades.

Ethereum Exodus Account: https://blockchain.info/address/36PrZ1KHYMpqSyAQXSG8VwbUiq2EogxLo2
Address Ethereum Exodus Sent to Twice: https://blockchain.info/address/1L1JRVExeKiqBU1pmvoyzCfRzCfEP64pBJ


So what could be going on:
(1) They are dumb, why dump all at once;
(2) All of this action is off exchange... but it doesn't look that way with the transfer to the same 2nd account and then a different third party all in big clumps rather than tiny clumps; OR
(3) They are purposefully trying to destroy the price so that people panic and sell their BTCs into Ethereum given the ratio is relatively fixed (although dropping each day per the terms of the roll-out).

Thoughts?

Fair.

The 300s was an exaggerated post-catastrophe price, Inca. We are in a bear market right now (obviously). The only question is for how long and severe.

Dude, somebody in one of the other posts said that there was a 25% chance that BTC would be valued at over $4000 by the end of the year (only a few months away). Drugs. Don't do drugs, kids. Jesus.

P.S. -- I think we are a tad oversold (in relation to a hypothetical strike price in the sky), but there is going to be a lot more blood in the near-term... too much leverage to unwind still. Also, the Huobi order book looks like an unmitigated hell hole to the bottom.

Seriously, anybody seeing that we are only about 600 coins from a new bottom on Huobi and OKCoin? You seriously don't expect that to hold... hell if I was a whale I'd dump just for entertainment (I mean, not like they don't have enough money as is) at the sight of that even if it meant I lost money. Jesus.

Different market, man. $4000 might be possible one day... not by the end of the year in a post-Gox environment where we are still working out the regulatory terrain. This is where technical analysis is dangerous and gets a bad name... math would tell you that $4,000 by the end of the year is possible, but if you look up from the calculator and think about the real world you know that it isn't going to happen (and certainly not a 25% in the next few months). Fundamentals and technical analysis should be used together to avoid this... the fundamentals are actually pretty positive despite the need to work out retailer dumps (give the coins to your employees people), but not nearly $4000+ positive.

It's just not going to happen. It's not even close to possible. It isn't like even a lottery chance where it is a super long-shot maybe. It's just not happening. Not in the next few months. Period.

True... I think the momentum is against us still... but the ride up will be a nice one.

C'mon... all Street would be dumb to share the profits with you all at this point. What is going to happen is this... they will keep dumping and manipulating until the leveraged longs get wiped out. There will be a cascade. Many long-time players will fold. They'll buy a ton up cheap. Then they'll work the price up to about $1000... people will pop in out of the wood work, again... then Wall Street will steal their lunch money again. Rinse and repeat. This is merely a more volatile microcosm of the larger system now.

A fair price minus all of the bull---- is probably about $575 to $650, but games will be played. Get ready to catch some coins at $200 and don't let these rich bastards take all of your lunch money.

I am not quite as bearish as you, but, yes, we have a cult on our hands. I think the thought is that if they only hear positive news from people saying we are going to be up to $4,000+ by the end of the year (this is truly a laughable statement), that it might just come true. If they are only trading with other delusional bulls maybe the game can go on forever.

The only question that matters is what is the bottom. Not where we will go after that because we aren't there, yet... that's not a decision point. The decision point is where we are in relation to a bottom right now. Frankly, I don't think anybody knows (or could know) given the leverage at play. These $4000+ bulltards and 16 to 1 longs (you can do this on Plus500) in the middle of a bear market need some serious help though. http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/

Please tell me you meant Ĩ3k (meh... I'll spot you Ĩ4k or Ĩ5k... but let's not get carried away, here).

This is a wonderful point. If they were wise they'd let it flourish so that they could reap greater profits later. This is especially so because if people start to think the game is rigged and that they are playing against the house then there are fewer counterparties for Wall Street to play against.

That said, I think that they see this as their time to make profits -- they see the expansion of too many Altcoins diluting the field, the potential for dumps, the carelessness of attracting retailers without working out how they would exit those positions (they should have set as a standard the issuing of BTC to employees... get more mainstream adoption and fewer price dumps), and the flood of new regulations (Lawsky is the tip of the iceberg and CFPB is a bad omen).

I still think we are oversold if this is a straight market, but what I actually expect to happen is for Wall Street to rip out what they can now while they still know they can rip something out of it. Maybe I am too much the pessimist.

Crack kills.

Commencing Chinese Mega Dump in T minus 1 hour.

Zero, zilch, nada, not going to happen.

$4000 by the end of next year... unlikely but certainly possible.

$4000 by the end of this year... I will ride along the ocean with a magical unicorn on my way to seizing control of the entire universe before that happens. Understand? NO!!! Not .000000000000000000000001% chance.... just ZERO!

Well friend, now that is entirely a different discussion. Hehehehe.

An optimistic number for the end of the year would be $1500 to $2000... that I'd put as long shot right now, but certainly possible. And while it is not the exponential profits some are dreaming of... that's a hell of a profit on the year... you couldn't do that in any other market.

The cultish sounding numbers, though, really do worry me... I don't like to see people talking crazy.

Seriously though, I hope that we see $4000 by the end of the year... I just feel like when people's expectations get too out of whack... that's when they make decisions that can ruin their lives. Also, it is like painting a huge target on your back. If I was a Wall Street trader my eyes would light up when I read people saying that their "conservative" estimate is $4000 by the end of the year. I mean, if you are a scumbag banker, those types of words are better than the best Christmas gift ever.

If you are in this far either: (a) don't sell; or (b) sell a small portion -- 10 to 20% -- and put in some low ball bids (basically, play a hedge position).

That would be my advice. I think we have further to fall, but absent a cascade (and hence the low ball bids) it really can't get that much worse.

Don't wait until morning... it is getting ugly quick. If you are going to do it then do it. If not then don't. Make a decision one way or another.

I have about $1500 to my name, too much credit card debt, and a ton of student loans... I assure you good sir, that I am not a whale. What price are you suggesting as the bet? $4000. I'd take out loans that I am not even sure that I can get... but I'd find a way... I'd rob a lady on the street if necessary... to bet that there is no way in hell that we are at $4000 by December 31st.

It could get uglier than this... but a very reasonable play in all actuality.

$515... I don't think we'll cascade... but we are closer than anybody would have thought a few days ago.

I will also do a bet that it won't be at $1,100 by Saturday... I'd rob the same old lady to put as much on that bet as possible. I am actually looking out the window at a coffee shop for potential old ladies to rob at this point. Look what you people are making me become. You are turning me into a monster.

My bad.

Well, at least fewer people bit on this bull trap head fake. That's good. Be patient. It'll go up, but it isn't done going down.

Hahaha... this is starting to feel like one of those bets where you think you won when it finishes and somehow you still lose. I am starting to feel out of my depth. All I'd say is that $4000 won't happen. Even with the mathematical possibilities, the psychology, momentum, and base is not there for that price... way too soon for expectations like that. Maybe, with .00000001 there is a galaxy that this becomes possible on... but we don't live on that galaxy.

I'll give you 1 BTC in December 31st though, for nothing in return (I think that is basically the bet), if we are at $4000. Promise. We can hash out contact details off the board.

No. But we aren't through the storm yet either.

Student loans between now and then. If I lose that bet... I might as well give up on eating... and caring about anything, really. I promise to pay and will release my personal info in a private message if need be... don't want to broadcast it.

Whenever somebody says this... sideways happens

They are expecting a bounce back... not yet... Ethereum is going to continue to drag us through mud and regulations aren't kicking our way lately. It could go sideways, here, if we are lucky and get a bounce later. However, by then, there will be sustained wealth destruction.

Ethereum basically found a way to alienate and piss off the entire crypto world. Nice job a--holes!

My only parameter would be $4000 on one of the major exchanges... at least something that Bitcoinwisdom covers... not like CampBX... and it has to be sustained for 30 minutes. I'll even spot it down to $3750 on those terms.

I like how all of the bagholders are calling people who sold are were liquidated out of their longs scumbags and saying they are weak for not taking a 10 to 15% haircut... but the volume is at like 65 per fifteen minutes or less on Stamp and mostly towards the negative side. If they really believe their own bulls--- why aren't they buying?

Riddle me that one Batman? And I even think the price is a bit of a bargain right now on its face, but these jokers are berating people because the are holding rotting bags but they refuse to buy more.

Partially... more likely though there is a twelve year old kid who got rich a few years ago who is bored because its summer vacation and he has nobody to hang out with. Hence, he is exerting his will over the masses solely for entertainment. Nobody knows how long the 12-year-old kid will continue to ruin their lives and how many more coins he can go through.

This is my working theory.

Look at the Market... Bitstamp has no volume. What I say is if you aren't a hypocrite and you think this is such a good price and everybody is terrible for not taking a haircut... then go and buy... buy 'em all. F---ing go for the gusto. Otherwise, you are, in their words, a "coward." Bunch of hypocrites.

Hell, I double dog dare people to start selling their houses and cars and buy more coins at this price... go for it. Otherwise, the uber-Bulls will call you a coward and a scumbag.

If everyone who leveled a complaint about others even owned an average of 1 coin and they were all stocking up then we'd be at about $1,000 right now. I am simply pointing out that there are a bunch of hypocritical bastards who won't put their money where there mouth is. And, maybe if they did... the market would turn for them and they wouldn't have to complain in the first place.

Yup... another wave cometh!!!! If the chart rings true, it should be a lighter wave than the last few... we have identical chairs on the chart that are shrinking in size.

Premature. I thought we had hit the bottom last time... then the second I bought in (literally the second) there was the flash crash.

525 is an important resistance point. Also, keep in mind that we have Ethereum further dumping still scheduled, some douchebag who is obviously manipulating the market to bring on cascades, and retailers coming to the end of the week and perhaps fearing a catastrophic outcome (they might be more willing to just write off a 15% loss than play the gamble of holding). Finally, there is no volume on this bounce back.

Hence, this strikes me as a trap. I might also be saying that, though, because I fell for the last trap. I am starting to realize that I am out of my depth playing a card game with a guy outside a shop in New York.

Very cool post. Yay!!

So, we have the same pattern emerging on the four hour chart as we have had the past three nights. This time it could break up or down... I mean, this really can't go on forever. Yet, there is some manipulation afoot so maybe the dumpers aren't done.

So, if you think the market the past few days has nothing to do with manipulation... I'd say buy.
If you think the market the past few days was all about manipulation... hold bets for a clearer signal. If we break 525 convincingly (not necessarily by a lot, but sustained) then we should be in the clear.

By contrast, if we break 3100 on OKCoin, they had a cascade at that number so that could be the danger zone.

With the way Bitfinex didn't wipe out everybody who went past their margin yesterday, there is no telling what the danger zone is there... my guess is $495 or $490.

Let's just pause and take a moment to say f--- the bastards behind Ethereum. Do they explain this market? No. Are they obvious downward pressure at a terrible time. Yes. So, in a nutshell, f--- those bastards!

Well folks... we going to break the $525 resistance or are we going to swing back down and start another cascade?

Looks like the manipulator is back... Everybody, get your puke bags ready.

There was a shortly lived sell-off on OKCoin that Huobi was starting to follow. Decent intensity, but it got cut off by a wall and also a sell wall got moved up.

Bahahahaha... let me guess that you took out a short position?

Not calling it either way... could go up 50 or down 50 right now.

DUMP APPEARS IMMINENT... ETHEREUM JUST TRANSFERRED 1237 COINS TO THEIR TRADING WALLET.

https://blockchain.info/address/36PrZ1KHYMpqSyAQXSG8VwbUiq2EogxLo2?filter=1

See... same wallet they sent to two other times. Each time right before a collapse. WATCH OUT!!!!

We don't know for sure that they are dumping, but it is certainly a rational explanation for the fall... especially if they are targeting TA triggers and have a side bet in another wallet to catch the fall (maybe that is too dark a view of the world).

I think they are dumping because they keep sending to the same wallet and then the transactions subsequent from that wallet are large loads... not in smaller to mid-size chunks like I'd expect. Can I prove that? No. Is it spooky that they are moving more coins. Absolutely!!

Also, at the very least, even if they are trading off exchange and being respectful to the ecology of Bitcoin, we don't know who they are selling it to and whether or not those parties are interested in dumping. For instance, who is likely to be able to buy large chunks of coins if they aren't just dumping them? Wall Street players... rewind theory about setting of TA triggers and cashing in with a heftier bet at the bottom.

Either they are making a bigger secondary bet... tank the price knowing you can buy back on the fall (and you'd know where the fall is going)... or they are goofs... or pure coincidence.

This keeps happening though and corresponds more or less with the drops. Ergo, certainly yet another thing to watch for.

Oh, and also... they might be looking to stir the trust in BTC a bit to gain market share... I mean, it's an expensive way to do it because this is also their fundraising round, but we don't know all of the details of their fundraising.

So we all know that there were whales, but basically we were binging on credit the past few months and the price was inflated. Simple as day. The manipulators came in and started popping credit like zits. In a few days, we'll have a clean and clear complexion, again. That is really all that is occurring.

However, the CFPB and Lawsky things can be challenges for future adoption, but are hurdles rather than cement walls.

Overall, I say long-term looks good. No pie in the sky $10,000+ roar. But, like you'll make some money if you hang around the game.

Anyhow, if you have taken the fall down this far then you probably should hold (unless leveraged... get out if you are levered up). If you haven't taken the fall down, watch the TA triggers to see when you know a bottom is confirmed.

They'll be a huge move upwards... but I think we have to clear the underbrush of leverage further, first. Remember, crashes in most markets with leverage typically stop at 55%. Maybe we'll stop sooner, but with $20mil in longs on Finex... don't bank on it. Wait until a bottom confirms and buy. This is pretty easy stuff. And yes, we'll lever all the way back up.

In the big scheme of things, a lower price is GREAT NEWS for adoption. More people will be willing to take a bite at the apple if they think they are getting in at a cheap price. If we have an expanded base and they lever in traditionally prohibitive amounts, as people do once rallies begin, then we'll get a higher price. Mt. Gox forever distorted expectations, but I can see us easily at $800 or $900 by the end of the year. In the meantime, don't buy coins at a more expensive cost than you need to.... wait until the market finds a bottom (the jump won't happen all in 15 minutes... people have to move money on to exchanges, lever up, etc., etc. ... you can wait until the bottom appears).

Separate market events... figure 55% of 666/700. If we got into that range you'd almost have to buy. At this price, you can sit and wait for the bottom.

Also, this is a separate market event, again, but a 55% drop on 1163 brings you to 523.

Edit... change "markets with leverage" to "highly leveraged markets." And, sure, a market doesn't necessarily need people taking out leveraged longs.

If I can make more money... then yes, that would do it for me. Won't happen, though. This is a resilient market and idea. Even though I think we have more legs down to go, I think ultimately we'll hit new non-Mt. Gox induced highs this year... maybe we'll even crack the Mt. Gox induced highs, too.

More down, then up!!!

Oh well, I wasn't going to buy yet, but now that Hungry.dk is in on the action I really don't know how I could control myself.


WTF!! OMG!!

Gang, I must admit that I am a bit confused at this point. We broke the $505 resistance mark on Bitstamp which is very bullish, but we only did it for a very short period and only slightly. In the meantime, China has not emerged past their key resistance points. Thus, there are contradicting indicators.

At the same time, we broke $505, right? This really should be the end of the storm. I want thoughts from people in response. Not frantic words of BUY BUY BUY or SELL SELL SELL... just thoughts. What are you all seeing (with details)?

Thanks Oda.Krell and Miz4r!!!

Heads up to all (this was posted in a different thread)... Bitfinex margin maintenance requirement being upped from 13% to 15% starting on Monday. This may or may not set off a tizzy. Right now it is just yet another thing on the horizon to plan around.

Also, it appears that de jure margin is being increased from 2.5 to 3.33... which should mean more volatility, but also a potential rocket.

Affirmative. We are getting dicked. I half wonder if some of them aren't looking at the Lawsky BitLicenses and thinking that they now have a limited window to screw us over whereas before they were thinking they could pump the market for a while and then screw us over.

But I am a slightly paranoid, pessimistic type. So take with a grain of salt

Stamp is trading almost ten dollars above... hardly following toe to toe. At the same time, if the exchange doesn't level down then arbitrage will level down for you.

Yes, I actually bought in the very second of the Bitfinex crash (and on Bitfinex) because the 3200 wall had held up on Huobi and OKCoin and the price was kicking back up... it should have been the bottom... and then bam!! The dump. That's why I am warning people not to try to get too cute about predicting the bottom... I made that mistake once earlier this week and almost paid dearly for it -- I mean, the price ended up settling only 20 above, but there was a slight delay before another cascade and in the moment you have no clue where it will stop... I could see somebody selling way low in that circumstance.

As for me, I weathered it -- lost a percent and a half by exiting through BTC/LTC which hadn't caught up to the action... then made back 4 percent when everybody else got the same idea and LTC got a small pump. Walked out of the storm ahead... almost had a heart attack in the process.

Ergo, my advice is simply don't get too cute when you know that there is manipulation. Wait for a bottom to establish. I know there has to be some suckers who wade in the water early if we are ever truly going to get a bounce back, but let them not be the folks in our little community.

Seems like people aren't buying this as the bottom. And so the game continues.

Bro, there is dumping and definitely a very alive sell bot in China. We actually have more downside volume today at this point in the evening than we had yesterday... it is more comparable to Wednesday evening. So, yea, things could get out of hand really quickly.

That said, they haven't gotten out of hand just yet and the order books seem stacked. Let's see what happens.

This!! This week has so screwed up my sleep patterns and diet. I feel awful!

If you think we have 50 to go then you can take out a quarter of your holding, peg it at a price around there and sit on the rest as a sort of makeshift hedge.

That said, look at the order book... barring something truly spectacular, we'll run out of downward momentum soon... probably about 20 or 30 lower.

Walls suggest sell-off back in motion... if you are playing a day trader game (don't do this by the way)... then take notice.

Bitstamp -- https://www.bitstamp.net/market/order_book/
Bitfinex -- https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/ll_order_book

See the tremendous depth throughout the $400 range. People could get scared and move those bids down, but barring another cascade... which doesn't happen until about 450... it won't happen. Also, it will be tough to droop to 450. Even so, it would take a lot to bump us out of the $400 range.

Mild. There is still some manipulation with the walls being moved in and out. These only end up resulting in about $5 swings. What you watch for, here, is if we crack $480... if we crack there then we'll bounce down another level. Given the depth of the order book, that may only be to $460 or $470.

We'll probably crack $480... it should stop in the next day or two around $460 or $440.

If you have trouble making sense of the order book... cash out a small portion like a quarter and put low bids to hedge. You don't want to be making these decisions in real-time.

Actually, scratch that... price can't dip enough more... not really... just hold.

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

That was a nice little pump, but the volume was abysmal. We haven't hit a price where people say... I gotta buy now. They are still suspicious that there is a looming dump to go with the pump.

So, it seems a tad lower we shall go. Price is looking tasty, though.

NAILED IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tide has turned... BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY

Betting the ranch... even took out margin... and I am a total pessimist. This is real. Jump in. Swim. Don't get carried away or make any crazy life decisions, but the water is safe to play in for a while.

Gang... let's make some money. Time to lever it up!!! Even if, on some odd freak chance, we didn't find a bottom... we have a clean approximation of where it is now. Ergo, let's have fun, now.

Did I mention, I think now is really a good time to BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY!!!! We've struck the Ocean floor... time to swim!!!

Play your own hand... if you aren't sure then it is fair to sit on the sidelines. I've gone all in because we broke upwards and broke the negative channel. That said, a new slice of news could pop up and with how shaky the market is it could spell trouble. So entering before a rally has really gotten strong footing is very risky business. I am taking that risk. In a nutshell, others also saw this as the bottom and they are starting to lever up. Bitfinex and its crazy leverage seem to be in the driver seat, now.

Judging from the Bitfinex long/short map, this morning's rally paused when leveraged positions went from 21.5 million down to 15 million and back up to about 20.5 million. Notably, we were at about 20.5 million before the rally. What this looks like is merely a whale adjusting their margin position. Since then, margin has been rising. Seems like the train will get going shortly.

Stamp up to 516.5

Stamp overshot, again. Very bizarre that this keeps happening. I'd expect that behavior from Bitfinex (no offense... you are just the leveraged guys).

3200 cleared with a minor retracement... recommence the pump!!!!!!!!!! Buy buy buy buy buy!

Listening to groovy music. Trading like a degenerate gambler with a newfound sense of confidence. Life is good!!!

https://screen.yahoo.com/pumping-hans-franz-arnold-schwarzenegger-000000067.html


Pumping up with Arnold Schwarzenegger, Hans, and Frans... "Don't be economic girlie man."

We won't see it for at least a week barring some heinous news. We are in the up cycle. I think that's what's meant. Whether or not we ever hit it again... who knows.

This cuts both ways, though. They'd either confirm it or deny it with higher volume than we saw at 4:00am. In fact, that we were able to clear 3200 while most of China was sleeping is, to me, the most bullish thing of all.

People, be careful, but it seems like we are in a bull run, now, and, at worse, a relatively stable channel. Keep your eyes peeled, but things look good.

Keep your eyes open right now. I am staying in place, but note the increase in the past couple hours in shorts. Kind of odd in the middle of a rally. Just noting. I still think we are good.

I don't think there is a trap at all. The longs and shorts tell an interesting story, though. It looks like somebody with about $500k... not a whole lot... on Bitfinex keeps switching sides between long and short trying to catch both sides of the peak and dip in the rally. If he can pull it off correctly, it's brilliant. Super risky, though.

That said, I believe that, and acts like it, are creating a little noise in the market that is confusing to some. Seems like we are well on our way, though.

Also, this goes to the fact that we've found our bottom. You don't play that game if you think you are going to get a 20 or 30 point downswing.

I don't like to see people lose money so I wish you the best of luck. That said, I think you are playing with fire if you touch nxttycoin. A 25% rise in an unknown probably means you missed the boat. It's probably a fabricated pump, too. But, like I said, best of luck to you should you choose to undertake that route. I would not.

Looks like we are just testing a support zone and like we are going to come away with a higher bottom on the wave. Staying put.

Sounds cool... BUT, seems like everything you are saying is already priced in at least for the near term with the 25% jump. Still probably not a wise investment at this particular point in the cycle. Thanks for the info, though.

Leverage picking up again

Go time!!! Now now now now

S--- a couple more minutes.

530 in the next 2 hours. This is just a shakedown.

I don't know why the hell they are selling when we are a couple levels from the bottom. Penny wise and pound stupid. They might get what, a ten dollar discount tops on where we are now? Seriously not understanding the psychology of people selling into a rally... it's just as foolish as buying into a rout.

The only thing that I can imagine is that they are playing both sides from the middle. Shorting on the trough and longing on the upswing. If so, though, they are doing a piss poor job of it.

That was a possibility when we were rolling around $485. That said, without any news and following a mild upswing... we'd now have to cross two or three levels to get there. It isn't going to happen. It's more than a little foolish at this point. If that's what they want they'd be better served making some money right now and shorting when the market was no longer oversold.

This cannot be bullish. Who would buy coins in the middle of an up and down market for the price several days in advance? Moreover, even if you are a bull and think the price will be higher in several days... who would pay that higher price in several days. If anything, I think this will depress buying for a few days.

This. I changed my position to short at about 514 a few hours ago when we crossed trend lines... I am kicking myself for not doing it sooner. We have more to drop.

Also, buying pressure will be depressed because of Coinbase and leverage pressure will be depressed because the change of policy of Bitfinex soon to go into effect. In a nutshell... more blood, guys. Wish it wasn't so. It was nice while the party lasted.

P.S. -- Don't take my trading advice on face value. I am a Newbie. I've done ok the past few days, but am a couple percentage points down. I am a pretty smart fellar, but I am still learning the ropes a bit.

Extremely, extremely, extremely run for the hills type of bearish news. First, there were a lot of buys because there was a lot of volume and volatility... there was action on both sides of the tape and with Coinbase as a middleman that leaves them dry (and anyways, that is historic, now... it's already priced in). Second, it means NOBODY will be buying from Coinbase all week -- a major purveyor of coins to the Average Joe. Why? Well, because the market is extremely volatile right now and you don't know where the hell the price will be (but assuming even in a worst case scenario there is a recovery by then that price would be HIGHER than it is today... you wouldn't do it).

It's God awful news. I don't know how the hell anybody could read it as positive news. I am certain I am being a bit hyperbolic, but yea... not good.

The reality is, I am in trading mode because I am an impulsive character and I have too much time on my hands this summer. Definitely not a generally advisable plan although I've gotten much, much better at it than when I started.

I did just short. I actually shorted right after I saw that. I think it's terrible news. Interpret it as you will.

Also, you don't know that there are more buys than sells... there probably would have been, but guess what... nobody is going to be buying coins with them until they know what the Friday price is.

Thanks man for the encouraging words. Cheers!

It's the common man vendor... they say a low price... and bought more... hence the price jumping to $530ish this morning. It already happened... presently it is unhappening. And, if they liked that price... they won't be able to get it through Coinbase because it won't be there any more on Friday.

Hence, short-term bearish.

Long-term it is good... means new blood is willing to buy in. I should have noted that.

Bitfinex added $600,000 in longs in the past fifteen minutes... it is trying to turn the tide against Chinese pressure. I think they are fighting the wrong battle, but meh... coins are relatively cheap right now so they won't be any worse for the wear in a week or two.

Overly emotional response. I hope that you all realize that I simply don't f---ing care enough to try to spread FUD. It was my take on a story. I like being right. It is why I banter about which way the market is going. Anyhow, it doesn't really matter that the market should go down (for this reason or a handful of others) because the volume is so heavy. I need to learn to just stay put otherwise I'll get nickled and dimed to death.

Have a jolly evening. And don't accuse me of s---. I don't like that. I just say what's on the top of my head.

Again, don't accuse me of s---. I would note preface my words with "I am probably being hyperbolic" if I was trying to spread nonsense. Also, my name is Newbie, bro. Emphasis on new. Cheers!

Hey man, thanks so much for the positive insights. Yes, I was actually walking around tonight and thinking... I should be doing better than I am. Trading itself, between slippage on the price and fees add up a lot quicker than you realize (not if you do one or two trades... but if you get too neurotic which I am capable of). I decided, upon seeing how the order book held up despite China wanting to repeat the crash, that it is time to go long -- I mean, China bled 4% from when I entered a short and I still managed to lose a couple dollars after fees... there just isn't any burn there.

So yes, I am long and have made a pact with myself that barring a complete psychotic catastrophe that I won't even long in to the exchange for a week.

Have a jolly evening.

I am just a guy who had a different take on a story. Attack the view, not me... that's all I am saying. If I am wrong then counter it. Honestly though, neither of us is wrong. It has mixed bullish and bearish elements (or so I understand).

Word. Just a misunderstanding. Happy hunting, friend.

Hey guys, it is my understanding that with the Bitfinex policy change that you can actually short more than you used to be able to AND the margin calls come slightly earlier. This would be a non-issue if we were still trending up, but keep a look out for this.

You used to be able to get effectively 3.33 leverage on a long by buying bitcoin and then longing with the bitcoin as collateral. However, that equation doesn't work out as unless you can short without a margin account (that I don't know!!!!! So somebody clean up this thought and in the meantime take this with a grain of salt).

On this point... it now says that I have a tradable balance, but it isn't letting me short any further -- it is cutting me off at the old 2.5 leverage mark despite the system showing the change.

=S

UPDATE... system caught up... was able to short all the way.

I put a stop just over 515!! =D Thanks for the concern, though. Solid note.

Nevermind... Bitfinex pulled my short order after it had posted... wtf is going on?

Sorry for what will seem like spreading FUD... but seriously, wtf is going on?

Bitfinex is not putting through shorts properly. Something is seriously awry. Call it FUD all you want. You've been warned. We are getting played.

They pulled another short at $500. The system is f---ing up.

I am writing them right now. I don't want people to get hurt... that's all. I am aware of how it looks that I am writing this and that worries me. But, just a few minutes ago BitFinex was trading almost 30 over China so there is circumstantial evidence to back my claim. Sorry, I just want you guys to know when something is going on.

Somebody, in my separate topic, posted that BitFinex is the next Gox and I really don't believe that. They just changed their policy in the past few hours and it is a glitch. Simple growing pains and in the long-term not that big of a deal. For the few guys on here who are day traders though, I want them to know what's going on.

New trading strategy that has actually worked quite well today... I call it the Bulltard rule.

When either BitFinex or Stamp is trading $20 over China, short... the market is toppy.
When they are within $5 to 10 of China, long... bottom of the wave has been reach of is close.

Strangely, this has worked infinitely better than any of the more sophisticated strategies. Kind of funny.

Jinx.... hehehehe. Not a big deal. Looked more dramatic than it was. The question is what follows next. Book is thin and this is clearly manipulation, though. As long as we don't catch the margins we'll pop right back up.

I actually think we'll see another margin sell off in the next day or two, though. There is clearly somebody prowling for just that. I should have just stayed short the whole time. Really kicking myself right now. Also, it really wouldn't take much to do it, anymore. The order book thinned out as people migrated downwards to catch a margin. Only 1500 or so to 480. =S

Then again, everything calmed down a bit after LTC crossed four. Hopefully that just holds. It's easier to make money going up than going down and we are plenty low enough already to have a nice ride up.

Exotic theory at best. FUD at the worse. I think a few things hit at the same time and there is a manipulator on the prowl who knew this would be an opportune time because Finex is in the process of reducing and balancing their margin slightly. The question is, how voracious this guy's appetite is.

This... and I also think it is starting to become a self-fulfilling prophecy for that reason. The order book above 450 on Bitfinex is pretty dry.

We are probably a few hours from either impending doom or staring at a lack of volatility while we fearfully anticipate impending doom. So, on that note. How is insomnia treating everybody this week. This has been the worst week for me ever in terms of eating, exercise, sleeping, and general bathing. How about the rest of the team?

You mean that dog is not giving me instructions to kill, kill, kill? Oh. Thanks.

?

I was thinking that, too... I figured maybe it is just a retarded shoulder... like those guys with the little deformed hand... I had a law professor with a little deformed hand... funny and brilliant guy.

Then again, if you look at the 1 day map on Bitfinex... it is a perfect head and shoulder... but that perspective is creepy and way more pessimistic than I am when I look at the market.

Interesting!

Fun!!

Couple weeks. Is it that obvious? =D

Well in today's news... s--- just got real, again. This refusal to bathe myself, sleep, or eat may just pay off after all!!

And, of course, this picture explains it all. "For the love of God and all that is holy, my anus is bleeding!"

Who are these crazy bastards buying right now. I mean, it's generally a good price and all... but you don't know where this is going, yet. Ballsy, ballsy people.

Margin hunter lives! What a terrible person.

I dunno. I keep thinking that. At this point, he's gotta be gunning for the margins... can't just be a goofy theory anymore.

That's why I always carry headphones with me when I am on a high fiber diet. =D

I thought it might! =D

I think even us taking shorts at this point are finding new and interesting ways to lose money with the fluctuations. These are tough times, but if you have even a little cash you'll make it back on the inevitable bounce back. Do not despair, friend.

That f---ing site. I swear to God. Couldn't short earlier today... you're saying you can't buy now. Jeebus.

P.S. -- No, I don't think they are a scam or Gox... there are just some issues and you also get nickled and dimed pretty well. But, like everything else, a work in progress.

They may have effectively spotted you some cheaper coins, though (my situation didn't have quite the same happy ending, unfortunately). It looks like the margin hunting dumptard and his sell wall have returned to the scene.

That was happening to me with orders, too. Then, a couple hours later, even though it said I had no active orders, phantom orders appeared (and conveniently not to my advantage). They've been finding ways to lose me money all day long. I now have a single position and I am not touching it. If I lose, I lose. If I win, I win. But I am tired of dealing with their engine. It's really screwed up today.

(Mind you... tons of volume and a policy change day... still, seriously pissing me off... I do a good enough job losing my own money).

No leverage, right? I think you gotta hang in there, buddy. You've taken the worst of it up to this point. Even if there is a flash crash that would happen at about 455/450 and we'd stabilize around 430. I doubt, at that point, they'd be able to continue hunting margins even lower than the low 400s range... there'd be too much buy pressure.

So, that's probably the worst case scenario. The best cast is we found a bottom and you didn't move in and out with the incidental costs/slippage that come with not knowing where the bottom is.

So yes, if no leverage, hold tough. If leveraged, maybe still... but that's rough.

They'll be a quick bounce back (especially if we hit a spot that is so far beyond a doubt a bottom). We have leverage and we have zealots -- of course they'll be a quick bounce back. Further, Coinbase is selling people coins at Friday's price... this means Coinbase thinks Friday's price is equal to or higher than the present price.

This rally has fewer legs than Lieutenant Dan.

New crackpot theory... a lot of the buy and sell walls are the exact same amount... like 10.3 BTCs or some odd number. What if they are the same guy? He isn't losing much because he is just trading with himself.

This.... if you aren't sure where the bottom is then scatter bids in different ranges so that you end up catching something cheap.

Ahhh... this I understand. If I took this much of the ride I certainly wouldn't be selling at this point even if I don't know what's up or down anymore. BUT, I don't understand people shooting their entire load at this price. I'd scatter a few bids so that I get this price, but I still have some ammo should the price drop (which keeps your average price in check). That would be my play... if I wasn't a degenerate gambler going more or less all or nothing on a short... unfortunately, I am a degenerate gambler.

Which, by the way, reminds me of when I was at the race track a couple months ago with my father... who is the definition of a compulsive gambler. They were watching the horses and then there was an intermission between the races. So he and a buddy of his saw two roaches running across the floor. Without hesitation, they both took to gambling on the roaches... my father was yelling, "C'mon roachie!!!"

More or less, that's my modus operandi. But the scatter bid play should work really well.

If you are doing Finex remember it is 10% from the trigger point. Normally, I'd say the trigger point is $451 which would bring you to about $406. However, with the margin maintenance adjusted and Finex being glitchy, it is tough to know exactly the trigger point. I picked a little above $415 and I may adjust it if we go within 10% of there without a flasher (flasher... sounds more fun than flash crash).

(A)... why the hell did I not have money on that goofy exchange. I secretly hate myself, now.
(B)... there is going to be tremendous selling pressure once people send their newly purchased cheap coins from BTC-e to the other exchanges.
(C) Presumably, but not certainly, Bitfinex will do the same exact thing within the next hour unless they freeze the exchange.

So, if you are leveraged out on Bitfinex and your margin call comes within the $400 range, this really is probably your last chance to cut and run. If you aren't leveraged... meh. Pay no mind.

Remains to be seen. Do all the cheap coins that just went out now manifest themselves as sell pressure? Even short sell pressure (turning the $300 coin into a $465's leveraged instrument for extra bang). I know something dramatic like this usually spells a bottom, but there were A LOT of coins that just went out the door.

I am not sure. I wouldn't be sitting within a margin in the 400s on Finex right now, though. That's asking for trouble.

This. I don't even know what the hell is going on with the price right now. Ahhhh I wish I would have just went to sleep.

Hogs getting hoggy.

Likely moving to retest.

They are pretty steady calling bull---- on the rest of the market. Anyhow, one of two things will happen... either Bitfinex will flash crash and we'll see new lows OR... we'll stop short around $445 and then get a bounce back. We can't get a true bounce, though, until we confirm a bottom. Right now, the matter is borderline untradeable. I am temporarily taking my ball and going home. I got whipsawed enough over the past couple of days. I'll buy back in when I am not so much out of my depth (and I realize that this is a surefire sign of capitulation which means I should do the opposite... except I thought the same thing several times this week).

Good luck.

The worst, worst, worst, worst, worsest of the worst case scenarios is that it is trading at $550 in a couple months. A few of us should have taken profit in either direction and then bought in heavier... but that happens. Don't despair. Smile and be well.

I'll be back. I'm secretly hoping (but highly doubting) these prices hold until I am flush with student loan money!!! =D I'll never play Finex, again, though. Too much nickel and diming (and I know opinions can vary whether that is on the exchange or on the trader... didn't have that issue with the other exchanges so I will be taking my ball to another exchange when I do make a triumphant return).

It's been real, gang.

Hehehehehe!!!!!

If there is any positive... well, it was a negative for me because I was riding a short... it is that the market didn't really respond that harshly to the BTC-e crash. This gives me the sense that approximately 400 is the lowest we can go apart from flash crash ranges. But I do not know this and am tired of losing money on hunches.

This is awesome!!!

China would have to wake up pretty damn smitten if we are going to skip the retesting the bottom phase unless you think the blow off after the post-crash spike was that testing. Possible. Not likelies.

This. The bounce back on the other exchanges isn't real. It is just pump bots driving up the price. We still haven't retested the bottom. The last bottom will probably hold, though. But it is totally untradeable right now. I mean, if you are shorting you expose yourself to timing and price picking issues for a mere $20 profit per coin. If you are buying or long you expose yourself to a chance of a Finex flash crash (although, since we stabilized at least, that is less likely). Moreover, if Finex crashes and the other exchanges break 420 in the panic, then hell does break loose (even less likely).

It's just really untradeable. If you are nowhere near your margin points then good. We'll have quite a fine bounce back once we all have agreed on the bottom.

The pump bots on Finex and Stamp are getting exposed. You have another exchange that is trading $30 off of you and there is close to zero volume and the price has jumped a steady 15 points.

On the plus side, it makes it so that ever shorting the market will be a fools errand... which only reinforces upward pressure.

Thus, once we confirm a bottom... the good times will roll!

I am pretty sure that it is because fake exchange order bots can't or don't arbitrage.

Hey, I am not picking on the bots... they'll make us money in the upswing... but if you ever have a question about there being fake exchange order bots throw away a small sum of money on Bitfinex in LTC... you can test and confirm the manipulation for yourself under $10.

Pump and dump #8567... this is why I stopped trading this. You have pump bots and a Junta of dumptards... in normal times these two forces level out towards a slow and steady rise. In high volume, though, you get whipsawed like a mother-----. Don't try to be too cute in your trading. Unless you are the guy who made the bots or part of the dumptard Junta, you will not outsmart either one of them in this type of volume. Let other people be sacrificial lambs.

Just play the obvious rises... the big picture trend. You end up getting 80% of the profit and it becomes a big free money give away. Do not be a degenerate gambler like I have been this week. Please don't do it.

NOTE: That doesn't necessarily mean you shouldn't buy now. We are at a historically good price. Don't lever up either way, though. You'll get uber burnt.

It's going down. Not a bad long-term investment right now. But, we'll retest the low... and probably, but not certainly, avoid setting of a cascade on BitFinex.

I'd buy lower on this Elliot wave for those anxious to get back in the game. we are on the top of the wave right now... if you are conservative and don't want to miss a buying opportunity trying to guess the price, I'd throw a bid in at 450-455. That would be a solid bargain price long-term.

Exchange pump bots can't arbitrage.

We'll at least test $420. That said, conventional wisdom is out the window. This market is seriously screwy right now. That's neither up nor down... just very, very, very screwy.

No bottom until the exchange values line up. Too much confusion otherwise for any full weight buy back.