you mean the banking cartel?

I actually have to verify to withdraw BTC. No reason given.

I'm here, it's just that I have nothing to say that would adhere to the rules. There can only be one wall observer thread and it seems people decided to go with the more restricted one.

Strange.

Adam, if these rules are not enforced it doesn't make much sense to have them there, does it?

Everyone seems happy about this, people are posting their feelings and off-topic comments about wine and other stuff. Even you yourself.

Can you please change the OP accordingly?

adam, unlock the old thread!!!

the longer you hold back the more powerfull the eruption

yep, it's gone. my trade-clicker goes crazy.

nomnomnom, delicious 126.

last 4 5 minute volume bars are close to or above BTC 1,000.

bitcoin-central.net and bitcoin.de both at exactly € 100.00.

+1. Same for bitcoincharts.com which is probably one of the most important operations in bitcoin-land, no?

we've cleared a lot of resistance (yellow) in the last couple of days.



rocket might even accelerate now due to now lower resistance (green).

One can interpret "the big crash" in the same way... just bigger scale (both magnitude and duration).



If we apply the same scale to what happened after the stable low-volume periods (a strong rally) the next leg up will be mindboggling. Maybe $450 or more. However, the stable period would have to draw out for another week or so to match well.

wow: 15,000 BTC down to $130, >25,000 BTC down to $122 (where we were 26 or so hours go)

Then he should change the op, too, for fucks sake.

wow!!

"Kind of" considering it.

Maybe he's been selling the keys along with a contract not to spend them until a certain time. Or he used something like lbaat.net to cryphtographically prevent spending until a certain time.

bitcoin-central compromised:


ffs.

thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=186609.0

sure does. Imagine you do a cash-trade with someone locally and later discover you received some _very_ old coins.

hm? there shouldn't be a need to scroll (horizontally)



for me the images fit the width of the post box, no scrolling needed.

lol: "a bitcon... uh, a bitcoIn".

still: "it was conceived in the free market and it shouldn't be regulated".

thanks, ron.

on a side-note: the millibit has swedish kroner parity: (1 mBTC = 1 SEK)

bullish fact: today 4 (!) old (some really old) threads popped up on my watchlist with newbs (10-40 posts) commenting.

"unlimited money" is an oxymoron. If something is unlimited in supply, it cannot be used as money.

Seems to me the softcore lounge wall observer thread with no rules was more civilized and on-topic than this one.

Maybe it's like with US-Kids: They're under so much pressure from all the rules they have that in cases they are able to break them, they overdo it quite a bit.

lmao at the botwars

both

a DDOS is by definition done by bots and such trading bots are effectively DDOSing.

you're probably asking about the intention, though. I don't know that.

thanks adam, lotsa support building right above $0.140

EDIT: oops. we hit $0.135

did rpietila close his short from earlier?

yeah. I guess a load of stops got triggered. 140 was quite a resistance (at least perceptibly).

it's so nice to see gox perform relatively well. no way for a human to take advantage of the volatility but the bots seem happy with the responsiveness.

It's not out of the question $0.12 will fall and I agree it would likely crash below $0.10 afterwards.

relm9, Is that Jean Reno in your avatar pic?

look at the moon, it's so bright, big and yellow today. It also burns my skin, wtf.

Correlation does not imply causation.

I can't help but notice the bulls (me included) are throwing much higher numbers (even in relative terms) than in 2011 ("$1000 by the end of the year"... quite conservative). I also have a feeling this time they are having an easier time actually believing their own projections might come true.

I remember when friends used to ask me back in 2011: "when will you sell", my answer was: at 1 BTC = 1 oz gold. This doesn't seem so outlandish any more, does it?

It's almost like my wildest dreams are coming true: bitcoin seems to really work out!

Have you guys seen that guardian piece about the Bitcoin Kiez (http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/video/2013/apr/26/bitcoin-currency-moves-offline-berlin-video). Had you shown me this in 2011 as a "video from 2 years in the future", I wouldn't have believed it and would probably not have been able to stop laughing in pure joy for a day or two. Nowadays my reaction is simply: "oh, cool! Quite a well done piece! Thanks cool dudes in Berlin!".

My old dreams are the new normal, I should get some new dreams... think big this time.

I don't think it's a good time to sleep. It might drag on for longer, but we're at quite a decisive point here. Any way it goes, it probably goes quite a bit:



There has been much happening around the level we're currently at (138ish): Top of a wedge (broken up April 5th) that lead us to the huge rally to $0.266, top of a rebound during big crash (Apr 12th), top of rally Apr 19th and now current resistance.

Don't get me wrong, I wont sell more than 5-10%. .

not nearly as violent as the last time we bounced off $0.12. Nowhere near the volume. I doubt we'll even retest $0.12

yawn... I think I'll watch a movie. bitfetch.com for the win.

can you link "your thread"? Looked through your recent posts but couldn't locate it.

what the f just happened? I saw a drop on clarkmoody down to $0.126. It stopped there so I reloaded the page. Now there is no drop like that to be seen.

not a bad idea. I've been waiting for some better name than "milli" of "millibit" to pop up. This might be it.

lol! It's close to impossible. I will try to help, bet or not.

what's that supposed to mean?

I've been wondering, too.

Attempts to trigger stops? Attempts to stop downward trend? rpietila?

I don't know. comments?

hmm. rich trading noob(s) too lazy to put limit order? It's possible.

it makes sense to go down 1000 to 'bits', then finally (give it a decade or whatever) another 1000 to 'mikes' (or whatever name we'll come up with then for µBTC), because then, quite elegantly, 0.01 mikes are 1 satoshi.

Lol: interestingly we can then measure money flow (like income for example) in kbit/s

Imagine you take off your vr glasses and NOTHING CHANGES!

I have also bullish outlook but a bit different: Wednesday will be the strongest day like last week. The low-volume calm period has been very long now and this usually means strong moves. I'm pretty sure they'll point upwards. Not quite as bullish as rpietila, though. 0.14 on monday is possible, maybe tuesday. 0.16 on wednesday possible. 0.20? probably not this week.

So I've been carefully going long(er) this weekend, buying the dips. As long as $0.12 isn't breached I consider lower price like now a buying opportunity.

maybe he's finalizing a large deal and mtgoxUSD is basis, so he's pushing it down to get a better price. (or someone else for that matter)

rpietilas more bullish outlooks seems more spot on than my reserved one (while still correct so far).

isn't "baht" also the name of the local currency? If 1 baht used to be 1/2 oz silver (gold??) that would mean there was quite some inflation going on in the local paper.

laymans analysis:



trend continuation: UP. soon.

EDIT: soon = max 2 hours

45 minutes

I think we go down to $120 again now.

What an eloquent bitcoin super-bull. I love this guy! And I think he's correct, "this is the time where people should be trying really big crazy things".

Bitcoin doesn't need the banks to operate. They make the current "value-bootstrapping phase" much easier, though.

When airplanes were invented, did people say "That's never going to work out, these new-fangled ariplanes still need strips of road for takeoff and landing"? Not too good of an analogy, but you get the point.

that "this" link is borked.

I think your clock is off: http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/city.html?n=248

crash or rally, we don't know that. We know, however: it can't remain like this for long. Days is a stretch in my mind.

damnit, I got to put my stops lower

I hear you and agree. Totally. (only trade to try to get more BTC).

However a high valuation in terms of fiat is a sign that the world is starting to take bitcoin seriously as money.

half a year ago this would have been absolutely devastating for price. Look how far we have come!

Bitcoin is LEGIT!

yes: bitcoin is money, $ is toilet paper.

ask walls? yeah, I saw one of amount 1290 getting eaten into for about 200 BTC.

After a nice day out at the sea flying kites, playing with children and enjoying the sun, nothing can shock me. Not even what I see here. Too tired from all the sun to trade this insanity anyway.

Looking forward to either a nice buying opportunity or a nice recovery tomorrow.

gn8

why would a silkraod user care about the price? About volatility, ok, but about price? Does not compute.

you mean you're done spending all your fiat?

lol, I love it. Need a shirt: "Dear Bear, if you must sell your Bitcoin, at least do it responsiby"

I know my last prediction was wrong (rally this week) and I feel like a hurt bull, bleeding. But I really got a feeling the lower this drops the harder the rally will be. Starting next Wednesday, maybe even on the weekend (!!). Just my feeling, which is recently usually wrong.

Why do I feel this way. That drop.. it just doesn't feel right. Just the many holidays plus silkraod offline plus panic doesn't quite explain it. Even if, those are temporary effects.

Whatever: don't miss the train, don't trade on emotion. Take a walk. (shit, I should listen to this advise for once).

I wish it was. But what makes you guys think the bottom is in? I thought that multiple times already today and yesterday.

you've been engaged in bear-talk for 2 days, then you apparently went short at the worst possible time and now you're begging for a dump... priceless.

I did some experiments using webgl 4 weeks back. It's a lot of work to get it right. Data collection is one thing: if you want the full depth finer than 12 minutes (magicaltux allows 5 polls of fulldepth per hour) you'll have to incorporate websocket depth message data. It's a lot of data to hold and you want to access different timeframes and resolutions so you need quite the machinery to be able to supply that in a timely manner. As for the visualization itself I have come to the conclusion that I'd definitely want to use height lines (height = amount) as opposed to a fixed x/y grid (x = time, y = price)

here's an example from early april



I dropped the idea for now, too much work to make it good enough.

nice!!

Narcissist or not, the guy is honest and a stand-up businessman: a problem I recently had with a silver delivery from him was handled extremely well and to my satisfaction... on a sunday.

I find his narcissism entertaining and taking his offer is voluntary. I don't see a problem.

His motto seems to be: think big, talk big, act big. It's what bitcoin needs (the middle part is optional, but doesn't hurt). As long as he doesn't despise the small business I (and other might) have with him, I cannot attribute him with arrogance, either.

Here forum, you just got some love

sorry to dig out an old post, but this is interesting...

People tend to make themselves believe it's going to go "their way" (wishful thinking). So this might mean that many have bought and are now waiting (predicting) and upward move.

If many have bought already, not many more can buy, but many can sell.... go figure.

Of course, I have yesterday and today sold a little bit, so this post itself might well be wishful thinking

it seems. api hasn't been working for me (http 403 forbidden) since I tried about 20 minutes ago. Now https://mtgox.com says "520 bad gateway".

lol, this about says it all.

frozenlock: awesome find of cross-market similarity there.

Of course it's true: I once matched btc/usd to the coastline of italy. On the other hand it's also true that the "herd behaviour" of traders repeats itself.

Well, thanks for a bullish picture anyways.

due to low volume I hope you guys don't mind a crosspost from here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=192719.msg2084624#msg2084624



to enter a bear market we need a lower low. Depending on timeframe there are 2 potential lows to break:

• the $80 low on 5/3 (red)
• the $50 low on 4/16 (yellow)

if we don't make a new low below $80, it's not a bear market but a correction (by investopedia definitions quoted further above). We could then enter a bull market or at least further consolodation pattern (green). Of course there's different options for "green", I just outlined roughly one of them. A break of the $170 top would clearly mean we're in a bull market again (both higher highs and higher lows would've been reached then)

I don't think we have to wait more than a month to see this resolved.

True, and that scenario exists (let's call it the "grey" scenario). That exhibition of mine is not complete.

btw: I think "green" is most likely, followed by "grey", then "red", then "yellow". That might be based on wishful thinking, though.

Usually those who fall asleep or go out and enjoy life on low volume wake up / come back to a radically changed picture.

I'm not suggesting to not do that, though.

enjoy while it lasts.

Yes, I think so. However, it's also a christian holiday today as you might be aware.

There's nothing "divine" about a month, though. arbitrary human construct, no?

my "client" is effectively disabled. can't do api calls at all. don't know what to do to get around cloudfare ddos protection stuff. apparently this: http://blog.cloudflare.com/introducing-im-under-attack-mode got activated.



crap, it's true. probably many bots are disabled. let's see what the humans do... probably not much.

interesting... I get "http 403: forbidden" on http api calls to data.mtgox.com.

interesting 2.) same client works from another host.

Heard this before

nope, that's not it. I just tried exact same client from another host. works fine.

most likely my IP (or subnet, cause changing dyn ip doesn't help) is blocked by ddos protection (cloudfare). I can still use mtgox.com website, but according to ne0futur that's behind prolexic, not cloudfare.

It's not a solution to the bot problem. gox wants bots, clearly.

It's part of a "solution" against ddos.

you don't seem to know much about networking. Spoofing ip address makes receiving answers from the service impossible (ip is spoofed, remember)?

You can however use a proxy or vpn gateway if you want to get around the fact that the ip of the host your bot is running on is blocked by cloudfare. it's as simple as using "ssh -L my.other.box.with.unblocked.ip"

Nono, "no bots" is wrong. It might be taking bot ops a while to figure out what's going on and what to do about it, but I don't think long. "less bots than normal", probably yes.

No stops triggered? Unlikely: bitfinex.com for example has working mtgox connection (it was down a while ago)

what is remarkable is that there are no accompanying large sells on other markets and no panic. This is not the usual ddos play, is it?

other host is on completely different subnet (different provider)

what the...



magicaltux payed $2048. dunno what to say...

haha. that wasn't a prediction (except that I said I favored green scenario). If we include your grey scenario (sideways for a while in white area in my pic), what I layed out pretty much covered all possibilities. Easy to be correct then.

Although I prepared for a drop I must admit I'm pretty relieved we broke upwards. Initially (couple days ago) I had been quite certain move would be up, but had increasingly become worried about the possibilities red/yellow. Probably have been reading too many bear threads... really gets to you after a while.

Let's see how much momentum this has... who knows, maybe it's a bull-trap.

It used to be the majority in this forum were here to buy, mine and use this new currency called bitcoin. It seems there's more and more people around who see this as some sort of a penny stock.

Sell your USD for real money and keep/use that real money is the game, not "realizing equity" at some point.

If you disagree, you should really think about what money is (or should be)

Hm? What is this?

Would you say gold is too expensive, middle class should buy silver instead because it's cheaper?

A bit (or mBTC) is still only 12 cents. Cheap enough for the middle class to buy?

that might be a little premature.

oops. well, I'm at work and I can't read the whole thread (it's become quite impossible anyway, wanted to lower my time-wasting). Only clicking on last 1 or 2 pages (skipping 20-30 at a time) recently.

Didn't notice he was trolling us.

Very interesting. Wouldn't have guessed.

If May 2013 continues, it will beat April 2013 (which is month with most "new users" to date).

In general the numbers are about one order of a magnitude higher (10x) than early 2011 when I got in.

Using my primitive trend detection skills I drew a picture...



as everyone knows our nice huge beautiful triangle has been breached to the upside. Upper bound (1) needs to be redrawn (line 2 is an example, can also be drawn differently). Not so nice-looking any more.

I tried to draw some possible trends:

• small green channel: to enter short-term (3 day) uptrend we need to break $125
• red channel: to enter short-term (7 day) downtrend we need to break $80
• big green channel: to enter mid-term (4 weeks) uptrend, we need to break $166 (I didn't draw the green line for this one)

we might not enter a clear trend at all and just smurf along in the yellow area.

That's what I'm thinking: yellow most likely, small green maybe leading to big green possible, red very unlikely.

EDIT: on second thought I should've drawn the yellow smurf area only up to $125, not $149 because in case we break $125 that'd be green.

This doesn't make any prediction. What it does do is show some key levels to watch ($125, $80) and what things will look like when they are.

Of course this is not news in any way, but I find it helps my planning to have a pic like this.

It's can also be used as a foundation for arguing about the probabilities of these outcomes.

I have to agree with this 100%.

It took me 1 week to put $17 cash into an envelope and mail it to canada to buy my first coins. 2 more weeks to have a miner setup and initiated a bank transfer to gox. I consider that pretty fast and that was only possible because I had all kinds of prerequisites already in place (understanding of crypto, understanding of double spend problem, understanding of p2p network). I had to talk to noone to confirm this thing was legit and most likely functional. There was no misleading press or ponzi accusations all over the net either, which should slow the process even more in this day and age.

Average nowadays is probably more like 6 weeks from first exposure to first substantial buy.

We're thinking too short-term. There's all kinds of buffers (delays) and feedback loops in this system that need time to play out.

It's funny how a $3 move can be exciting these days.

The London conference seems to have created a slight updraft last year. The conference itself did not deliver. Buy the rumor, sell the news?

In the bubble burst from $32 to $2.50 I did not sell a single coin. Instead I've been buying increasingly more thinking: "you idiots, it's just bad press, the fundamentals are sound" and so on. A bit green behind the ears I was back then.

Of course in hindsight it would've been better to sell all and buy back in at $2.50.

On the other hand I recently talked to a guy I got to know in early 2011. He had been mining and sold everything in late 2011 only to discover bitcoin had gone to 3 digits. He now says: I won't buy, it's too expensive.

Just holding on to your coins is not the best thing to do, but not the worst thing either.

you're being played.

"deflation" of a bubble has nothing to do with "deflation" of the money supply or prices.

I'm not sure, but maybe Coinseeker is talking about some iAltCoin? I'm not sure about this. Bitcoin has some problems, but a new coin that is substantially better is something that cannot be forced. It's one thing to make the best phone by innovating and doing things the right way (iPhone back in the days), but a genius innovation like bitcoin cannot be bought with money and good engineering.

If some altCoin comes along that really is substantially better (it's not amazonCoin, litecoin, ripple (ok, not a coin, but a competitor of sorts) or yaccoin afaik) then I will embrace it even if it means my bitcoin stash is worthless because it would mean we then have even better money at our disposal.

About early adopters sitting back, not using their stash and brain power to develop bitcoin infrastructure: I'm pretty sure they are very active. Who do you think these people are behind all the projects? Do you really think someone in the early days discovered the potential of bitcoin, acquired a huge stash and now is content to do some non-bitcoin related work or no work at all? I'd think he'd like to be part of this awesome piece of history. There might be exceptions, but I would guess the bulk of the early adopters are among us, helping the cause any way they can and trying to profit even more. Hell, maybe even Satoshi is still active (might be dpr as someone suggested, although I doubt it).

About the calm: I'm actually getting some bitcoin-related work done. It's a good thing.

why does this make me think of flatulation?

just don't be that guy.

haha, good one .

The thing is (at least for me): parasitic governments currently have (at least) two major ways to milk the populous: taxes and "the hidden inflation tax". The latter one will not be possible with sound money. This means governments will have to produce their income from visible taxation. They also have to act responsibly fiscally (just like every other entity) because they wont be able to just borrow in a virtually unlimited fashion.

This hopefully results in leaner, more responsible and more accountable governments and a overall better situation for the people living under them.

this has to be some sort of a bad joke.

See, I told you: Don't ... use ... apple!

In soviet russia, thread moderates you!

remember back when this guy accidentally the internet? Well, just like that.

Don't you worry, don't you worry chihiiihihiiilld, you are 1.5th class suuuupernooohohooode. The table is in miiiillibiihihiiiiits.

I recently had to verify my account. I'm hardly new. Registered 2011.

So 112 is the price of a Bitcoin or what?

We keep coming back to that, it seems to stick.

Well said...

...and yet, these are the same people that make the price less volatile through their actions. Not a high price, but an agreeably steady one is good for bitcoin.

They don't actually want bitcoin kaput, they just get excited because their plan is to sell high and buy low and they're currently at the latter step in that process (albeit that step might also turn out to be "buy higher").

Rpietila selling Bitcoin in the psych ward.

I have to admit I like his style.

Edit: hope you get better soon.

Lol. Dr. Rpietila, I need my daily dose of Bitcoin bull talk, quick.

This is extremely good on many levels. The foundations concerns had been a thorn in Bitcoins back. People tend to listen to what they think. Thanks EFF for reconsideration and thank to fincen for guidance.

Brilliant analysis...

on the other hand: aren't we all insiders?

sorry if this has been posted here, but this is pretty cool:

The question is only: which December?

(disclaimer: I'm ultrabull, non-hospitalized)

What kind of variation? "Order queue filled with 75 minutes worth of market buys?" ;-)

I know, right?

Listen to these guys (especially maloney) struggling: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRpwRpLdLDc

The mental anguish is palpable.

I don't care wether it trickles down or grass-grows up. As long as it forces all entites to suffer the consequences of their own actions (including governments and banks) a great goal is reached.

Money is what the people use as money. We have the power and we're starting to realize it. Bitcoin really is a tool for the people to take back power and freedom. Let corporations embrace it and governments be faced with the fact they can't print it.

It's a long way, but we're fucking on it.

+1. Bitcoin is sound money you can actually transact. That's a novel combination.

Or trace meyer.

I don't think the goal of the discussion was to have a discussion.

Maloney had to answer because he was asked and other big metal heads had already voiced their opinion (Doug Casey, James Turk for example). Similar to the ones I mentioned (Turk seems to be moving faster toward bitcoin, though) he's upholding his heavy metal view cause that's his agenda.

No. Everybody should be able to do that just as everybody should to be able to communicate with others in privacy.

The present will be the past in the future. Get used to it.

afaik on bitfinex the coins are borrowed and actually sold (or bought) on exchange. Don't know if mtgox is currently active.

so yes, it has effect and there is also danger of squeezes.

Just checked the site and order book contains only bitfinex and bitstamp orders. so gox is not affected.

people putting buy orders 10% below market are hoping they get filled... until the market drops 10%.

This is a meaningless chart from May 11th. We're still in meaningless yellow territory (although $125 had been broken and new uptrend established (which was slightly exciting). But it's now invalidated.). So we're smurfing along in yellow territory.

I'm getting the feeling it can take a long time to get either below $80 or above $150 (which would establish new down/up trend).

Good or bad? Well, below $80 would be bad in my view. Above $160 would be great. Yellow area is good, too.

Btw: I stopped trading shortly after I made that chart for tax risk reasons and I have more time on my hands now for other things. This is great, you guys should try it .

this, dude. this.

it's a revolution. a non-violent one. we can do it, we must.

the real winners are the people.

let time do it's thing.

not at this stage. we're still in the investment phase. bitcoins value is being bootstrapped, you want to hold on to what you got. Missing the train is just too expensive.

next up: while exchanges and other "bitcoin businesses" run into increasingly unbearable regulatory issues, the global shadow economy discovers bitcoin (international tade, illicit trade).

oh look, we've got a "market"... all these people trading back and forth providing liquidity... until something fundamental changes.

no

EDIT: what?

fuck yeah!

With the "premium" over your initial investment (let's say it's 500%) being enough to "shop for real estate" combined with your rather bullish views, I'd have to guess you bought your first coins in 2010.

You can afford to cash out a little, but those who missed the early trains shouldn't.

But hey: spend it, I am, too. But actually I don't spend more than I can rebuy with (meagerly) incoming fiat.

rule #2 of investing: defend the assets you own!

that, in combination with your avatar pic, makes me think of cocaine... don't know why.

No, we're not seeing "essentially faith" with bitcoin. It's more. I have to agree finally with Max Keiser: bitcoin does have intrinsic value (I used to argue it was all pure faith). The intrinsic value of bitcoin is it's scarcity combined with the fact that you can send it through the internet anonymously. That's intrinsic value right there.

lmao. nice!

"genesis block, muthafuckaaa!", lol.

In case we put in a dip down to 115, would that technically make it a "tripple bottom"?

If you don't know what to do, don't do anything.

you shit bitcoins?

Are you expecting at least one 10-fold move this year, though?

maybe bitanol (used for hypertension, http://www.amolpharmaceuticals.com/product-tablets.htm)

that's one thing about rising bids. If they concentrate close to market price, they can also mean fodder for dumpsters.

just take a look at this thread: [BETA] MTGox websocket API, testers wanted

the title says it all

Me neither. Dude is serious and one has to hold that in his favor.

There was at least one other person posting about having attended the meeting. He said he didn't notice much of the drama, though.

Risto, not Rosti.

no, that's Rösti.

Noone ever really comes back from that place. And when they do, they're not same any more.

I didn't read it at all like that. First thought was they're probably staying longer for vacation. Didn't even occur to me he might be implying anything weird had happened to them. You read what you want to read, I guess.

I would be surprised if more than 50% of people on this forum featured some sort of mental fuckup so great it incapacitates them in some way or another. Rpietilas fuckup is quite visible, that's what discerns him from many here. Also: there is no "normal" and no "sick", really.

What counts for me is that when you make a deal with the person he's honest, available and reasonable in communication and reliable in action. This has been the case for rpietila to an above-average degree on the occasions I traded with him.

you get to pick price or time, but not both.

the vinklevoss twins!

holy crap indeed. It smells funny though because they were even willing to give a reason... who would've thought that?

you stole that from an old radical: http://www.dgcmagazine.com/the-old-radical-how-bitcoin-is-being-destroyed/

interesting times.

oh, now I finally understand that weird "account" feature in the satoshi client. It's for dividing up money into multiple accounts for regulatory evasion purposes.

That's bullish in itself.

Bernanke hints at tapering, people sell assets. Bitcoin not affected much. Assets cheap, tapering is farce. Bitcoin users buy cheap assets, Bitcoin affected.

But will Mr. Market agree?

what's going on?

gox is almost down to bitstamp level.

all the bear talk. tststs.

what has this thread come to?

I'm still bullish. $80 will likely hold, $50 for sure.

And we'll see 1 oz gold / BTC next year.

But then again: I'm not a good analyst by any means. Fundamentals count for me and I stubbornly held on to my coins on the way down in 2011.

The bears may laugh at me now.

A bear doesn't talk big bear words on the forums if he hasn't already sold.

A lot of bear talk lately => a lot of people are short => ...

fucking hell man. pages and pages of talk and then there's a gem like this.

thread delivers, ManBearPig cracked me up!

Oh yeah. I love inflationary currencies... I just don't usually hold them for long. Maybe saving can be a good thing, too?

Is that from the bible?

maybe you're betting on the wrong horse again. (not saying). reminds me of rock-paper-scissors. Mr. Market is out to screw you psychologically.

one of the best investment advice I've heard. a little hard to parse, though.

lmao. epic. EDIT: not true it seems

doesn't look like it's correct.

lol, it was all a ploy to get the bid sum up

obligatory GO OUTSIDE!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hn0ue/kipochi_launches_first_bitcoin_wallet_in_africa/

interesting

the news is pretty awesome recently. not only mtgox, etf, but also german taxation clarification, the m-pesa bitcoin client I just mentioned, visa/mastercard banning VPN providers, flattr adding bitcoin as funding option,...

these are substantial news, too, in the sense that they will actually effect an increase of use of Bitcoin (what everybody is demanding: we need to grow the bitcoin economy) and also an increase in exposure.

based on that a bull can hope.

this.

And the fact that even a stubborn perma-bull like me recognizes the possibility of another massive drop down to 50 or even below might be seen as an indication that the bottom is in soon.

It's usually the bottom when I stupidly sell coins in panic. We're not quite there yet, but I'm starting to not feel so well any more and I'll probably panic below 50 (hopefully I'll be far from a computer at that point).

On the other hand I'm starting to feel greed boil up that wants to throw more fiat at the thing before the train leaves again...

Interesting times in any case.

now that's a plan

This is good advice and I already put 80% of my coins into very cold storage out of my immediate reach early 2012 to protect them from my emotions. It has worked.

I could've multiplied my bitcoin holdings by using these 80% in 2011 and again in 2013 easily by going short at the right moment and long again at the right moment. I could've also lost a substantial portion of that by trading on emotion or even rationally.

Since I believe in the future of bitcoin I'm not sad I held on to my precious little stash. If bitcoin becomes a success on a large scale, it'll be enough anyways. If Bitcoin fails, even 100 times more coins wont do me any good.

So if you're a bad trader like me, just follow watchwoords advice.

Just don't guild the page upside down.

Wow, did I just make a bearish post? Guys, I think something is happening.

Wall at 80 getting eating? We haven't touched 80 on gox since 26 hours.

What kind of cocktail are we talking about?

oh my god, now I see it, too (after looking very hard): we went down $0.60 in 30 minutes!

You're not talking ab out good Vladimir, are you? That would be deapicable, would it not?

lol, really? that has got to be one of the funniest ideas ever. "chat over gox orders". love it!

hehe, 3 month runup, 3 month pop... what now?

based on wishful thinking?

korea pop?

But what about you? You've been one of the most vocal bears not long ago, right?

nibble? wall? what?

the german news maybe? Not sure how big: http://www.bitcoin-journal.de/bitcoin-de-und-fidor-bank-ag-vereinbaren-weitgehende-partnerschaft/

bitcoin.de announced their banking partner (fidor bank) and will offer insured SEPA account to be used for live trading.

EDIT: but that's not really news.

buying that would could yield juicy profit

I like you a lot better upside down.

first world problems

"markets hate nothing more than indecision"

that leaves even more questions. ;-)

right on dude. That guy in the reddit post talks my heart. I have several magnitudes of coins less than him, but my thinking is very similar nevertheless.

I agree with your earlier post that a world "financed" by these early cryptogeeks is probably better than what we have now.

There is however a distinction to the status-quo that is much more important in the long run: Bitcoin has a limited supply. The money will disperse over the long run (rich people spend and invest, borrowers default). It's seemingly easy to argue that interest rates effect a concentration of money over the long run (I used to think this). But this is not true in a free market using an inelastic money supply. Wealth will actually flow to the people offering good products and services in such an environment. We did a good first step to enable this with cryptocurrency and the free market should follow. So I also agree with the reddit poster that Bitcoin will grant access to the global market for the currently poor (think System D, see this TED talk) and make for a fairer level playing field.

No, I think you are backing exactly the correct horse in trying to accumulate more. At least when you're still young and not looking death in the eye yet. Everyone will always try to excel and be better than others and that's a good thing. It will benefit society as a whole and increase prosperity.


No, life encourages spending. A non-inflationary currency just facilitates an environment in which people are put in a position to suffer the consequences or reap the benefits of their actions. There are no distortions of price signals or misallocations of capital that would allow inefficient behaviour to persist for long. People who make bad decisions experience an outflow of money. Since noone makes good decisions all the time, money will not concentrate at a single point. The rich will tend to spend more money than the poor (simply because they have more and want to live life) and by this logic non-inflationary money tends to disperse.

I don't know wether this logic makes much sense, but it's the way I currently think about this issue.

If you bought at $266 it would've made sense to sell at $135, no?

uhummm. I admire your ways... let's see you sell into strength of next bubble and your face when the train gets away from you to where bitcoin has never gone before.

you can scratch the second one if money isn't being printed up freshly all the time. Even investing is work.

looool

well, if you help him, you'll be left holding the...

seems rather low to me

got to be quote of day or something. by this dude:


(Jeffrey Mardlin, founder at coinforest.com)

BTC lending rate on bitfinex is 80% (annual basis). Never seen it above 5% before.

Interesting. Did people just discover they can short on bitfinex?

that's why you should always have some bitcoins, so you can go short when time comes

*raises hand

hey guys (phoenix and chartbuddy), maybe you should take it to a motel or maybe more adequately to the silkraod forums.

allright, then go ahead and get it on right here. I don't mind, see y'all l8er.

gox userlist has leaked a year or so back, afaik. Did you have the account with unchanged username for that long? (I didn't change my username after the leak, should I?).

Triggering password reset seems harmless, unless of course the attacker has access (or can snoop on) your email traffic.

If you just want a bed and breakfast, you can use a bed and breakfast place instead of a hotel.

oh and the area around dubrovnik really is beatuiful. I've only been there once, but I can recommend it. Those mountains right next to the sea are breathtaking. If you are a motorcyclist, the coastal road should not be missed out on... hold on to your balls.

off to go test 100, 105?

testing 100 indeed.



EDIT: only 1kBTC to break $100. Let's see...

too early imo... grow balls

which bag do you want to hold?

Some people try to buy trends. It makes sense. When price is "low", you don't know it's low because it might just as well go lower. When it starts moving substantially however, especially if there is a breakout, it can make sense to hop on the train because you know the direction. Less profit, but also less risk than trying to "buy low".

He has cooled down and plans to keep taking his meds. He's still ultra-bull, but his timeframes and expectations are less crazy now.

hypothesis: newbs use market orders

hihgher highs, higher lows. shortterm uptrend. let's see for how long... 105 should be interesting

there's new noobs coming in, though. It seems quite a few have been waiting on the sidelines and now contact me on localbitcoins.com wanting to buy their first coin.

Knowing your fundamental view I must say you have balls of steel sitting there with no coins...

yep, so for those people, the selling (via asic manufacturer) of the BTC has already ocurred. Next up: mining like hell without selling.

I'm not sure however, how large that group is compared to the group that wants to recover fiat.

Isn't this wonderful? I love it!

"mbit" will win

Bernank is going to utter some words today I hear (when?)... I bet stuff will move then.

yes

the other explanations (gox illiquid, banks can't handle load) are obvious BS.

We should rather think about what mix of markets we look at for analysis and make some tools for that mixing. mtGox is totally distorted, no good for price discovery any more.

I've started to base my prices off of friggin' bitcoin.de prices when the divergences started to get above a couple %.

I think it might be a better approach to just make a thread and explain your idea. Noone is going to message you saying: "ok, what is your idea, I'm sure it's great, let's do it!"

pff. it's not like he doesn't have some "other" bitcoins he would use to dump before the news, is it.

That's from the Bible, right?

tschatsching!

words of wisdom award!

you know the sun is shining on a weekend when chartbuddy makes almost half the posts here.

enjoy while it lasts you guys out there, you'll be back in this dark hardcore channel quicker than you might like.

a bet can be a hedge/insurance 8-). No info on wether he did any such thing, though. Is he still around at all?

quite frankly I think at the point in time the "chicken and egg" is solved, there will be no dollar worth mentioning any more.

Deducting from that (and one other) assumption I can easily affirm $1000/coin will happen before "chicken and egg" solution.

huhwhuut? lmao. preorders for what?

the 51-percenter calibre? better get your supernode-budget adjusted to accomodate the expense.

fuck yeah!

boom, bust, war... repeat.

I fear they might want to go that route once again. Only the people of the world can stop it.

Bitcoin is just a type of crypto, yes. But a strong one... the first one. It's likely to make it out on top when crypto in general becomes accepted by more and more people. If not (and another, better one comes out on top), well: fine be me. I might be a little disgruntled and kick myself for not buying more TopCoin earlier, but I'll still be living in a world that has no assholes being able to print money at will and that's the real upside.

Yes, they (Argentinians) are using BTC to get USD, but they're having contact with Bitcoin and actually using it. They will not just simply forget about the concept. They are now infected with the crypto virus. Takes time to incubate, but it never leaves you and in no time you find yourself bragging about how you teleported your wealth out of the country by memorizing a string of numbers and letters to your friends and had you just not converted back to USD you'd now be twice as rich, damnit, maybe I should buy some bitcoins again .

"It's about letting people engage in commerce with ANY currency" <- I disagree. It's not about that. Yes: ripple is a wonderful system (or open transactions?) for allowing transmission and automatic trade of IOUs. In case you're saying XRP (the ripple built-in money you need for using the system) is the money in ripple that will become the "main currency" everything will be based off of (reserve currency) then your argument is moot because then we're talking one currency again. Ripple can be great for running your local or niche currency and it can be a good tool for transferring IOUs of existing currencies, but it doesn't solve counterparty risk or problems inherent to the moneys you're transferring IOUs of.

It's about having good money. And by good I mean: scarce, easily transferrable, fungible, easily auditable, accessible to anyone, ownable (deny access to others). Once you have that the economy (= the people) will thrive and prosper because the market can do its thing without money injections bloating it up in various places and distorting price signals.

The economy is a swarm of entities. You can talk about it like it was one organism, which is true to an extent, but on the other hand if parts of that swarm fail, it doesn't mean the whole thing dies.

Parts of the economy will die a horrible death and/or suffer severe withdrawal symptoms. Guess which parts: the ineffective ones that had been regularly injected before. The party will be over for those guys, their confidence dwindling and being replaced by suicidal wishes and hate. Some will come around, though.

Other parts of the economy that had previously been suppressed and kept from fair market access are going to thrive and steal the show of the fake boys on coke in their unreasonably big cars.

The cancer will die off.

To come back to an earlier point by coinseeker: Yes, it's imagination. But doesn't everything start like that? As dreams in the heads of people?

oh yes. crackheads in the roach motel.

here's another opinion (the same one essentially) by Detlev Schlichter:

You start buying when blood is running in the streets?

So you think urban population would starve if it wasn't for the current implementation of the financial sector and/or institutional violence?

I'm afraid I don't follow your reasoning.

Do chicken derivatives count?

I can probably see bureaucratic system => institutional violence, but I still fail to see how bureaucratic system necessarily follows from an increase in urbanization.

In order to fly you need an airplane. Isn't that obvious?

Winklevoss to the rescue?

if this thing doesn't move soon I'm going to have to stop looking.

I don't understand. Which down? Sideways down?

ripietila has a point: it takes time from hearing about bitcoin to buying it. Last year I estimated this time to be 6 weeks (and called the january rocket pretty well using this approach). Maybe for the kind of people having heard of bitcoin during the spring '13 bubble this time is much longer. Many months, maybe even years to gain trust in this new-fangled hacker-thing. They need to see bitcoin is still around after much time to gain that trust.

Everyone agrees that (barring anything really bad happening) bitcoin will go up substantially again at some point in time.

Quite frankly: if this isn't going down soonish, it isn't going down at all.

The clock is ticking, bears...

yes, I can literally hear it: tick tack, tick tack.


bears repeating their wishes here over and over can make quite an impression, I agree with that.

The "evidence" the bears have been pointing to unisono is the pattern one can see on the 3 month chart. 3 x lower highs and 2 x lower lows. The idea is that this pattern will continue and next we'll see a lower low (<$67). One can even find similarities within the patterns and the predictive method used is extrapolation of the pattern.

I'm not ruling out a lower low. One would probably put it at $50 and incidentally we would then have reached the post-bubble low for a second time putting in a double bottom with extremely high volume and huge probability of a bounce there.

There would then (during the bounce back up) be talk of both reversal and bull trap / dead cat bounces.

If we subsequently break $50 after that, there will be the long-awaited capitulation. Bulls will be broken and people who didn't sell substantially post-bubble would start considering it and some will. People will leave the forums pissed off at this scam that is bitcoin and media will start some negative talk. There would be long squeezes of leveraged bulls who fell for the trap and downward accelleration. Raw irrational panic. People who were waiting for cheap coins will still be waiting, infected by the fear and panic and shocked their bearish dreams came true. They would not buy until things turn around substantially. Many coins would change hands at the real bottom, however, and this is when real money is made and lost.

I hope the bears are happy about me describing this fantasy. Again: I don't rule it out, but neither should the bears rule out the possibility we won't put in a new low below $67 and just sneak slowly sideways/up helped by good fundamentals.

There's no "evidence staring us in the eye". Noone knows, everyone believes.

Hehe. Thanks. A slightly bearish post (although it was intended to be balanced it seems it turned out a bit bearish) from a perma-bull is worth more than bear-fud repeated over and over by known bears, I guess

I'm still 90% in Bitcoin... lowest value ever for me. But do not fear... I don't have much and it's not going to drop below 80% ever (using current valuation). Even if my rational mind shuts down completely due to fear and panic, it'd take me too long to get to the keys (especially then).

NO NO! Wait until he stops taking his meds (which he promised not to do, but who knows).

(sorry rpietila if you feel it's inappropriate to make jokes about that I will apologize)

Everyone seems to be "ready". This could mean it wont happen. The market likes to surprise everyone

I disagree. These countries may be comparably small, but there would (will?) be huge effects on global financial markets, the political playing field and the emotional state of the population (not only of the respective country) if one of them defaults. Like it or not: bitcoin is part of the global financial market.

I think if that happens, Bitcoin just goes KABOOOUUUuuMUahahaaaahahahhaaaaa!

what happens to a mosquito in a storm?

Live life until I die.

What is was way bitcoin was intended to be used in again? As a store of wealth? As a unit of account?

"ssshhhh! Don't move!!!" *looks right and left*

"I think the walls are coming closer!"

$115 is when I get excited... not before

I'm not sure what you mean, but maybe you should read "John Perkins - Confessions of an economic hitman" regarding the "handouts".

For those who don't read, some of what he says in the book: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDPoZJNT1eM (part 1/3)

Don't know if that's "better", it's completely different. John Perkins mostly describes things that happened in the past from his own perspective of taking part in it (so one can understand it better). Zeitgeist is an idea for a solution of generally related problems if I'm not mistaken.

Also the "spin" is a lot different. There will be large groups of people who can take Perkins seriously but will have their problems with Peter Joseph.

I bet there's a negative correlation between volume of posts in this thread and average outdoor temperature (geographical weighting to be determined)

You're welcome, but be careful, once you take the red pill, you cannot go back!

Perkins deserves some kind of medal for blowing the whistle on that shit. It's one thing to suspect something fishy is probably going on, quite another to hear the stories and reports from someone who was actually involved "on the ground" when the shit was pulled. It makes it that much more real.

EDIT: interesting... just found this video titled "financial terrorism exposed!!" in which it seems Max Keiser had been speaking before him. Anyone have a link to the talk Max gave before him?

"It's time to wake up"

how often did you click the "buy" button?

about 2: XRP might not be mined, but it's issued by them and they control it. roughly 13,000 XRP are worth 1 BTC currently. They say it's just for spam prevention... but why is the value so high?

I have to say I completely switched to bitcoinity.org. reason: switching between bitstamp and gox is easy.

EDIT: I find bitstamp more exciting to watch. Also picture looks much more bullish imo.

They are the cumulated orderbook volume (bids and ask) over time

inspired by adams chartbuddy conglomeration post, I just made a chartbuddy video starting mid-may.

http://youtu.be/ifKS-UebUCI

for some reason the quality currently sucks really bad (doesn't on my end). maybe it'll get better once the youtube re-encoder has finished his duties for higher qualities or something.

not too hard to get it from bitcoincharts:


(more info how to import into postgres if anyone is interested here's an old thread: BEGINNER WORKSHOP: bitcoincharts + postgres = cool sql queries

here's how I made the video:


after getting the files with this little script (which leaves much to be desired, of course, but works):

this my thoughts. smart accumulators use off-exchange channels.

I love your level of specificity. Let me try another view, trying to be equally specific:

I don't think 100 +/- 5 is a zone prone to stability: we'll have a long hard excruciatingly painful time to get over $100, then even worse $105. There will be temporary drops down to the low 90s, 80s, maybe even 70s, but no panic... $67 wont be touched again this year.

It'll be a long time before we finally break $115. No false breakout, just plain pure fucking bitcoin rocket once we break it. Maybe a little pause getting rid of the first stage fuel containers at around $180.

That'll happen before or after, but not at Christmas.

we should really start looking at bitstamp. or at least start to quote the price including exchange. $100@gox, for example.

I don't think we'll see $100@mtgx before $95@bstp

well... and two of them on top of each other? still only 400kg max.