doesn't anyone else see the similarities?

If this correct it will go down.

I am fairly curious myself as to what the volume actually stands for.

Investopedia explains 'Volume'

Volume is an important indicator in technical analysis as it is used to measure the worth of a market move. If the markets have made strong price move either up or down the perceived strength of that move depends on the volume for that period. The higher the volume during that price move the more significant the move.

I find these indicators to be the most reliable, far better than all the TA. My theory is: "The price moves in the direction that creates the most grief for the highest amount of people."

Has anyone tried to analyze what these short down moves are trying to accomplish?  It does not seem to be to just suppress price as it always bounces back fairly quickly.
What is the underlying motive then? Just trying to learn.

I'm skeptical that a 5k market order to sell is the best way to get the most money for your 5k coins. It's also odd to see fairly large asks walls pop up right at the bottom of the drop.

So are bear traps self fulfilling in that someone just has to keep smacking the price around enough that investors lose faith or get bored or whatever long enough that the money flows out?

A false signal that the rising trend of a stock or index has reversed when it has not. A bear trap prompts traders to place shorts on the stock or index, since they expect the underlying to decline in value. Instead of declining further, the investment stays flat, or slightly recovers.

I also trade for other entities than my personal position so actually it would be best to not listen to me at all.

There is of course the possibility that we see both 25 USD and 250000 USD per BTC within the next five years. 

The bottom was $104 not $107.

I was thinking more like landscape mapping with different colours.
Then the evolution of the walls over time would become a valley (or a canyon) and the price would be a river flowing in it.

No analysis?

This capitulation at $91. Have you forgotten the bottom at $50 two weeks ago?
Are you predicting a bottom below that?

I'm curious how you think the coin lab vs. Mt.Box lawsuit will affect prices.

http://gawker.com/so-a-currency-that-fluctuates-wildly-with-the-ebbs-and-487994806

I'm still relatively new to the BTC market, but surely the price would go down further in light of such news.

What tipped us into filing was our complete inability to get Mt. Gox to deliver on the few simple things left that were needed for customers to move over en-masse; we were often left just apologizing to our alpha customers while their own businesses suffered. I'm just not willing to put any of our customers in that position — if we can't do a good job for you, I won't promise that we can.

I hope you realize that I am one of the precious few fulltimers that can actually, fundamentally, better the situation they have there (the single point of failure called Mt.Gox). Just read my diary and all the associated things, such as the supernode summit, dealer network etc.

That battle is spilling so much blood (fiat), removed my bids at 70,  there will be many unfathomable bottoms ahead..

My buy orders are now set at $75 and $52

I found you guys!

Wait, it's a long drop and a long weekend.

We may be breaking out of this channel.

You think bitcointalk being back online is helping this rally?

I guess that means I should probably change my password.

Have fun guys.

I guess this was I,II,III,IV,V, let's see what will happen in the future  

I usually pick a spot where I want to begin, and double the amount I'm going to buy the lower it gets.

So for example
0.1BTC @ $80
0.2BTC @ $78
0.4BTC @ $76
0.8BTC @ $74


etc.

I'm sure theres different strategies for this but I find this one the most logical sounding.

just missed it

There seems to be a lot of support at 97, I can't see it breaking.

For bottom though it seems that 79 is it for today.

For bottom though it seems that 79 is it for today.

Anyone see reptielia guy ? i think he might commit susicide after loosing so much money

That's why I immediately sold what I'd bought in the $80s when we went back over $90. One single whale dump will be enough to get things rolling downwards again.

how did you come up with a downward direction here? i see the triangle, but triangle formations themselves tend not to have directional bias. by my analysis we've reached a short-term bottom.

So now almost everyone is a bear? Investor cycle says we are going up then. 

we've reached a short-term bottom. rebound is likely,

Let's throw random numbers and see who's gonna be right on monday then?

I'm calling $65, Monday. 8PM UTC.

That's your wall?

It will be eaten without being chewed at all I say

So, you think the capitulation is over and we are on the way up?

Man, bulls turning bears and bears turning bulls, I'm really puzzled

I really expect a bigger correction during this week, selling pressure is quite high, and obviously new money stopped pouring in (or it just slowed down when compared to the times we were in parabolic growth).

Oh, I figured the unix time thing. I just wasn't sure what it signifies.

BTW, what does everyone think the top will be before we dive downwards again?

I say 180

Gotta be able to turn on a dime in the prediction business.

I wanted to do the socket.io thing (and still do for another project) but found it poorly documented and jumped on the http in the end. I still need to figure out why I appear to be regularly missing the first few minutes each hour from Gox. It's not always but it's often enough to be annoying.

It's not so much the API as the socket.io thing. I'm sure I can work it out though. I want to write an app for Android so I can see the charts realtime like a picture viewer without having to do a browser deal. Though probably someone has already done that. Often seems to be the way these days.

Manipulator... Everyone in this thread is a manipulator.

But the truth is that after the April, 10th crash we had days with HUGE volume. Damn, we had two days where we had ATH volume. I really believe the bigger sell off has already happened - and that was April, 16th, where we had +BTC550k sold. I could bet we won't have a single day with that volume in the next month, unless something really disruptive happens (I mean a really big technical problem, etc.)

@SlipperySlope:

You keep invoking the 2011 bubble, and how you expect a similar protracted slide downwards in this one as well. I'm not going to take the cheap shot and say "past performance is no guarantee of future results", in fact, I'm not even ruling out that you are right and that we have a correction of about 3 months ahead of us, bringing us all the way down to the 20-50 USD range, but there is one thing you seem to keep ignoring:

The smaller corrections (or capitulations) in 2011 followed a decidedly different pattern than those of the current bubble. What I drew in as "corrections" in 2011 and 2103 (see charts below) is to a degree debatable, but one trend seems to hold: the corrections of 2011 followed a very obvious, steady downward trend, each time reaching a lower high, and, more or less, going to lower lows with each correction.

The 2013 corrections so far however look quite different. True, we didn't reach a new ATH, but at the same time, the low points of the last two corrections are both higher than the lows of the first two corrections. If anything, I would say the corrections so far seem to indicate a (very cautious) consolidation pattern, trying to converge at a price somewhere between 100 and 130, while the 2011 pattern could perhaps be described as "reluctantly going downwards".

I appreciate your insights a lot, and I follow your posts closely, but I'm not buying your by-the-book comparison to the 2011 price decline, if the first month after this crash already looks so much different than the month after the crash two years ago.

That, dollar cost averaging, and automated market making are the only trading methods I recommend in this market.

So I don't usually draw lines on a chart... but I am bored and it seemed like fun.



Alright, chart mystics, tell me the significance of this channel!  

Man, the fact that everybody here is cheering every crash is such a bullish signal I'm about to go all in NOW (I don't think I will do it but I'm not joking anyhow)

Oh, forgot to add:
- I will always quote in minicoins (mBTC) from now on
- I don't think we see $0.1 ever again
- I can still write puts for $0.1, PM me
- If you want to know, how much I made and how, it will be a workshop case study in my conference

Well, bulls are still crapping their pants - look how nobody moved their bids up after the spike to $115.5 - plenty of bullchickens on the team green.

I made one based on this chart. http://i.imgur.com/puQbjNs.png


http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20130511T20&p0=37&msg=Bitcoin+post-crash+triangle+closing


I set it to 7PM GMT, not sure how accurate that's going to be. If someone can find out a more exact time that'd be great. It's surely gonna happen in the evening of the 11th. (If it doesnt break out prior to that)

How cool is it that the bearish highs and bullish lows have converged on the one month anniversary of the big crash from 266?

Mere coincidence or divine forces at work?

Im going short here fully leveraged. This reminds me of the recent 140 high with no volume. Looking for 105ish to make me a nice 25% gain.

My guess is that there is a lot of people that got burned with the last bubble and now set up their bids and ask orders at very low and high values respectively. If only it would be a simple as that.

Sorry to dig up a slightly older post (posted earlier today, already 4 pages in o_O), but this is a pet peeve of mine:

No, the "January-March trend [...] doubling every 30 days" is not per se, as you say, "unsustainable". What you're doing there is repeating the worn-out mantra "exponential growth is not sustainable". Unless of course when it is, either in finance, or in nature[1].

What you probably should have said would have been something like: "a given exponential growth function, causally connected (however losely) to something of finite quantity, will eventually reach a point at which it drastically outgrows said finite quantity".

This is not just some empty semantic nitpicking. The difference in wording here amounts to the difference between lazy repetition of half-understood claims about the world, and a meaningful statement about the sustainability of growth.

Please note: I am not making any claims about the correctness of the January trendline. I just refuse to let a lazy statement like that slide by, that at face value claims that exponential growth is somehow an oddity, and its usage as a way to model reality ought to be rejected.

If you think that a particular exponential trend is not accurate, present your arguments (for fairness sake, in other threads you have been doing that. Sort of.). But the statement as it stands, in its unconditional form, is not fundamentally different from a perma-bull's battle cry "We'll inevitably reach 300k USD/btc next week". Both claims are devoid of information.

* * *

[1] A common rebuttal to the Apple case is "But now the price comes crashing down! So exponential growth is unsustainable after all". The fallacy here is of course that just because at a certain point exponential growth of a given magnitude must end, does not imply that up to that point the growth was not accurately described by a particular exponential function.

I am truly intrigued by the movement the last three days... and I was actually quite productive with my work  
I think if there are new people to the market they might enjoy this price "stability" and consider buying in if they were waiting for an entry point.
Bitcoin was especially scary the days before.

Did anyone read from Loaded? I have a feeling he might show up the next days...

I'm really enjoying the price stability the past few days.  If it continues I do think it will be quite good for bitcoin adoption.  As the market is typically extremely volitile it does make me think that there are people who are creating the stability intentionally.  If so, keep up the good work.  Do others think this as well?

Time frame? Day? Week? Don't pressure the poor Bitcoin, let him do his thing

That wasnt even a rally, that was a huge sudden jump that got no support. I am afraid the bear-may still holds

I don't think so. The bid wall has lagged a little since the push to $122. But $115-$120 is pretty solid.

$122 to $125 is 12k BTC. Unless some new money starts making up for lost time, we'll probably bounce around $118-$121 for a bit. We'll see some dumping for sure, but there's enough buying pressure to keep us above $115.

The ask wall doesn't seem to be getting out of the way at any point so far, it will be a lot of little jumps, regrouping, let the bids come forward then it's up again. If the rally continues it will be slower, that jump was 2 days of no action crammed into 3 hours.

If I was selling between $122-$130 right now, I'd be content to wait for the bulls to pay me off. I'd be surprised to see a lot of panic selling, we're more lilkey to pickup some bears to buy up any dumps. Any drop right now is a chance for someone to get back in.

i have started my dump

just did 200

Ok, i did market orders only today. I'm tired of trading this thing. (i was waiting for a re-entry point since when i sold everything at 110, i kicked myself not to have bought at 78$).
I bought at 122 and sold at 119. I bought again at 121 (5% of losses only for this move?).

Cashed out to a paper wallet, i don't want to see mtgox again for the next 2 months. I reached the 0.29% trading fees, they want me to get addicted. I have other things to do in the meanwhile, the only choose was between staying all in or all out.

Bitcoin conference, lot of positive media reviews, lot of buzz, 40k btc on buy orders from here to 100$, i don't think that this will be another 2011, but this confidence should tell me that maybe everything is out there to convince me to do the wrong choice.

We will see, bitcoin. 2 months from now, we will see.

But ask sum is higher than last time. Still I think, we will go up.

If you have to scare the fish, you are doing it wrong. The fish should just be doing what you want without them being aware 

As of close, yesterday:



Drop the blue trendline down a bit and we are still on it.

Subconsciously or otherwise, that line is in people's heads and is affecting their long-term plans.

I wasn't there but I can just imagine how people were so happy and falling over themselves to buy shedloads of BTC at $5, $4, then $3, then whoohoo $2!

Chartbuddy stop spamming

Clarkmoody has died on me

This is the chart I've been waiting to see. To me, new highs aren't really that important, I mostly have been waiting to see the new bottom.  It's provided us with this third critical data point for growth rate, which gives us a better idea of bitcoin's trajectory.  I like what it shows.

I'm still not sure if anyone really knew what a supernode was...

Its a depth chart. Its the same data that clarkmoody would show if clarkmoody would work correctly. I would not rely on clarkmoody at all for trading, it is extremely buggy and shows orders where there are no orders anymore, sometimes you even see asks lower than the highest bid and bids higher than the lowest ask.

I've said it in another thread, I'll say it again: I really appreciate your posts. Initially I suspected you're posting with a bit of a bearish agenda, but I was wrong: you let evidence guide your analysis, not wishful thinking.

btw, I'm not saying you're not bearish anymore, I suspect you still are, mid-term at least, but I respect your opinion a whole lot more than that of others because you genuinely seem to be interested in predicting shit, not in publishing post-hoc reasons for your trading decisions like most of us shlubs are

Can't wait until i get my sub $90 coins back. Should be soon!

With respect to Bitcoin as a technology, there is clearly a lot more to be said. Currently it seems that Bitcoin, while innovative, has a number of limitations and weaknesses in its design, and might yet turn out to be just the first draft for future crypto-currencies. However, as an organization that supports cryptographic experimentation, we believe the best answer to Bitcoin's potential shortcomings is for others to come along and offer superior alternatives.

ASICMiner selling... China time zone.

And of course if i show you one of this charts

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd

which are in total contradiction of the MASS adoption and people spending more and more bitcoins on different merchandise your gonna go in a denial phase.

Well , good luck with your bitcoin going from currency to commodity or .. collectibles.

People have this all backwards.  Its not merchants that we need - it's earners.  We need to PAY people in BTC.  That's how you drive an economy.  Give people something valuable, and merchants will flock follow the money.  If those with millions of BTC would start paying hoards of programmers in BTC only, they will need spend that income, and that will drive the economy.  

If you want to make a river, pour water on the mountain top.

clarkmoody down here , so, how important?

Bought all back in at $112......wondering if I made a mistake.  Obviously missed the bottom, but was that just a false bottom?

https://www.tradingview.com/e/c5CZeJOb/ This is not investment or trading advice.

better not in mtgox they are going belly up

Interesting. If I may ask, around which price did you sell?

*applies only if you bought at 10$ or mined 

This is an amazing drop.  

I think that if we stay above $ 74, the next bullish wave will be against the 80 wall.

When short-time overbought little drops.

Otherwise, we can probably fall back at  60 - 70 again ....

However, this just looks like another mild correction on the way up. I mean, we went up 70 points on Gox in less than 24 hours. There needed to be a correction.

been a while since huobi lead stamp price wise

Ye i mean some of these

I know I've done this a couple of times now but I feel obliged to point out how much fun it (almost always) is to watch OKCoin's LTC 1m chart:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/okcoin/ltccny