Source please. I follow the bitcoin-dev mailing list and no news of a resolution has been mentioned.

Classic TA says as long as the 200 week SMA is above 243.5 on Bitstamp the bull market is still on, plenty of room for profit taking:

Ledger is a smart card based bitcoin hardware wallet that keeps your private keys safe offline. Costs of the various hardware wallets on the market vary from $20 to $240. I prefer Trezor which sells in the middle for $99.

Until Ether uncouples from bitcoin owning Ether is a good hedge. As bitcoin goes up Ether has been going down. Ether is not going away and as much as we love bitcoin it makes sense to own some Ether also. If you did not buy Ether when it was cheap this next week could see Ether/BTC below .02 and that would present a good buying opportunity.

From the August 2015 low to the June 2016 high we have been in a bitcoin bull market. A 23.8% Fibonacci correction to $640 would be healthy and not anything to get your panties in a wad about.

If 500 does not hold we could be heading to 465

See klee's post at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.msg15334516#msg15334516

All you need to know. His PnF analysis is the best I have seen.

Positive for bitcoin. In the past few weeks when polls indicated Britain would leave the EU bitcoin price increased. If Brexit wins the pound will decrease in value and bitcoin would be seen as a safe haven.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

Betting markets just flipped in favor of Brexit

https://twitter.com/PoliticalLine/status/746148223119671298

Sky News live coverage at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZt8yg&feature=youtu.be

Sky News just made their projection: UK VOTES OUT

Doom and zoom in 24 hours, now that is a bitcoin bull market.

Not all. If you have been thinking about selling take a look at klee's analysis here at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.msg15334516#msg15334516

That is what is called fluff, or a filler article that really does not say anything, just to publish on a slow news weekend.

There is heavy resistance at $780 and 5180 yuan. Also $800 and 5200 are important round number barriers. In addition 5300 is an important Fibonacci resistance level on Huobi. If all those are taken out yes ATH probable otherwise consolidation or flash crash.

Happy Holidays! I would prefer to see price action take a break and hover around $900 for a week or two then a new ATH in the New Year. I hope we could have steady increase and avoid the parabola, but I expect that will be the case, a sharp spike up then a crash once again.

No still making the way through approval process. Good news is that final deadlines are coming up so it should either be trading quarter two 2017 or DOA.

Clif High is the same oddball prognosticator who predicted nuclear war in 2010. You may as well get investment advice from Rush Limbaugh. Take a look at his website at halfpasthuman.com.

From the $152 low on Bitstamp to $1140 the correction was only to the first Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6%. Probably overdue and healthy. Bull market still intact.

Different EW theorists have varying wave counts. One Elliott Wave count that is as reasonable as any is by Paul Gordon of Coinscrum, who believes we are now in Primary Wave 3 of Grand Cycle I with a projected high of $9304.

I think the bottom is in. Two legs down completes an EW abc correction. If I am wrong best estimate is we would see a $658 - $700 flash crash but as time goes on that seems less likely.

Here is the problem: it is possible that maximum pain level was not reached, meaning blood in the streets, wailing, despair you get the picture. RSI on the daily chart has not reached oversold level under 30. A capitulation wave down to $680 should get the RSI oversold and price would also touch the daily 200 MA. May not happen but putting some bids in at $680 might prove to be a good move.

The big three Chinese exchanges (OKCoin, Huobi, and BTCC) have all disabled margin trading for all clients onshore in China. This is in response to the recent on-site “inspections” (aka Ride The Red Dildo) by the PBOC.

With margin trading eliminated, the question remains what happens with existing leveraged positions. If the PBOC forces the exchanges to unwind all positions, that will negatively impact the price. The CNY spot book of each exchange is a combination of leveraged and unleveraged traders. The ratio of leveraged longs to shorts is of interest. If the net leveraged positioning is long, that means a combination of leveraged shorts and long sells were matched against them. Given that we just witnessed a new all time high in the CNY price of Bitcoin, I estimate leveraged longs outnumber leveraged shorts. In the event of a margin call, as the exchange unwinds both sides, the net effect will be a drop in price. The magnitude of the drop depends on the size of the imbalance.

30% initial margin (3.33x leverage) was the normal amount of margin offered. The collateral will be exhausted if the price moves 30% below or above the entry price of longs and shorts respectively. Given that the exchanges themselves lent funds to speculators, should the price move further than 30% they would suffer a principal loss. For illustration purposes, assume that the long / short ratio is 100 XBT / 50 XBT. The 50 XBT shortfall was provided by long sellers of Bitcoin. If the book was unwound, 50 XBT would need to be sold into the order-book. Hopefully, the order-book liquidity is sufficient such that the average execution price is no lower than 30% (the initial margin) below the average entry price of all long positions.

However, now that margin is removed, the actual liquidity will be substantially lower. If the margin positions were to be unwound, it would happen at the worst possible time. Some white knight whale would need to fully fund purchases of Bitcoin as it was dumped onto the market. Last week the BitMEX Bitcoin / USD 100x leveraged swap, XBTUSD, traded a record of nearly 100,000 XBT over a 24-hour period. The actual open interest fluctuated between 10-20x lower than the recorded trading volume. Given that trading fees are 0 in China, I estimate open interest is 100x lower than recorded trading volumes.

The big three exchanges routinely traded around 5 million Bitcoin per day during the recent pump. Using a 100x divisor, assume that each exchange’s actual open interest of loans is 50,000 XBT. Also assume that longs represent 60% of that total, and shorts 40%. That leaves a net 10,000 Bitcoin of required selling on each exchange. 30,000 Bitcoin in total must be sold across all the exchanges. The differentiations between the exchanges is quite small, which means that they all have the same customers. It is also the same handful of market makers responsible for all the liquidity in China. As trades happen on OKCoin, liquidity will be removed from Huobi and BTCC simultaneously. Therefore, we cannot sum all the liquidity offered by each exchange.

30,000 Bitcoin is worth 268 million CNY. That is not chump change when you consider all purchases must be fully funded. If we take the most liquid order-book (OKCoin), how low would the price go if 30,000 Bitcoin were dumped?

Each day brings new developments on how the PBOC is constricting business operations of Chinese Bitcoin exchanges. The Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) will depress buyer appetite further decreasing on-exchange liquidity. The pace of the forced margin call dictated by the PBOC will determine how far the price dips. I haven’t performed any extensive analysis on the order-book depth but my finger in the air estimation is a 10% to 15% drawdown from current levels. Hence my short term price target for Bitcoin is $650.

If and when the PBOC forces a China Bitcoin margin call, it will be an amazing buying opportunity. Without leverage, the only marginal sellers are Chinese miners. After the plunge, the marginal demand for Bitcoin will be higher than the supply offered by miners. The demand for a store of wealth not controlled by a government or central bank remains strong in China. I reiterate my call for USDCNY of 9.00 by the end of 2017. That would take Bitcoin substantially over its recent all time high of 8,895.98 CNY. It is still too early to tell whether the unwinding of margin positions will be orderly or chaotic. Much depends on exchange CEO’s fluffing skills. Get on your knees, boys: for the sake of Bitcoin.

reprinted from Bitmex Crypto Trader

Sorry I have never shorted bitcoin. I can also make a good case that we have just finished an abc Elliott Wave correction and should resume upward trajectory soon with a price projection for Primary Wave 3 of $1800. Here is a preliminary chart, when I have some time I will write up a full article on my Elliott Wave count for bitcoin.



Need to make sure the bottom is really in at $735 on Bitfinex first.

You want a bargain? All you need is one bitcoin daily chart of Bitstamp on bitcoinwisdom and two indicators. One is the 200 simple moving average and second is RSI at the bottom. If price has a flash crash to the 200 MA or RSI drops below 30 there you go. You should probably already have a $700 buy limit order in at your favorite exchange. May not get filled but hey you made the effort.

See https://www.bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc

$1800, $2800, $3800, $4400.

$1242

If @marcus_of_augustus is right the play is to buy bitcoin now. It takes time after approval for paperwork etc for COIN to be listed on BATS. I have seen estimates of about a month soonest after approval.

Is https://bitnodes.21.co/nodes/ more reliable?

It is all about having options. If there is an imminent hard fork you want to have possession of your private keys as you have more options. The safest most private way is to run a Bitcoin Core node on a home computer. Second would be a hardware wallet like Trezor or Ledger Nano S.

You can use a Trezor with Electrum. If you are going to use a local bitcoin wallet like Core that does not support hardware wallets YET use a real good password.

Any wallet that exposes your private keys can be hacked. Keylogger malware can steal your password or a trojan could substitute a different bitcoin address. Bitcoin Core is still the most private way to use bitcoin but it is ultimately not as secure as a hardware wallet. The most secure way to use Bitcoin Core is to run Armory on top of it in cold storage mode. Needs two computers one always offline for the Armory wallet with private keys.

Watch $1380 Bitstamp as a possible short term high. Longer term $1800, $2800, $3800

Zerohedge is wrong there are no more delaying tactics by law the SEC can use, either deny COIN by close of business March 13 or let the rule change pass by default.

SEC is tasked to protect investors, not speculators. They do have until Monday 13 end of day to deny the BATS rule change which would make COIN possible. See the rules for deadlines.

The SEC has run out of delays. If not denied by Monday 13 the BATS rule change that will allow COIN will be approved by default. Just monitor https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/batsbzx.htm

Coinbase and GDAX website almost always crash during big events that overload them. The only way you could have scooped up coins was to place a buy limit order on GDAX at your price and hope it got filled.

Good read - http://www.btclawtoday.com/star-crossed-failure-geminis-etf/

Sexy buy zone is $1010 - $1060

There was advice to place limit buy orders @ $1000 all over the place in case the ETF was rejected. Bitcoin will always have swings so your best bet now is to get fiat on your exchange of choice and place a buy order $200 to $250 under the current price to catch the next down day.

I use Nano S and Trezor. I like Trezor better because I can use it with one hand but that is a minor quibble. It is a good idea to keep a portable copy of latest Electrum on your desktop if you are using the Chrome apps for Nano S; once in a while the Ledger servers have a problem usually on a weekend. If you trade Ether you can use MyEtherWallet as a backup to the Ledger Ether Chrome app.

You can do everything from your phone if you have a newer Android that has OTG capability. You use Trezor Manager to set up your new Trezor then Mycelium for transactions. You may have to check Amazon for an OTG cable that works with your phone.

If a hard fork is imminent and you want to preserve your options you should have your bitcoin on your own computer and run both Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Unlimited. After the fork you will have double your bitcoin with the same balance on each fork. But added together the total value will be less than before the fork is my best understanding. We really want to avoid a contentious hard fork.

From https://bitcoincore.org/en/2016/10/27/release-0.13.1/

They do not. BU has 38.6% vs SegWit 28.2% see https://coin.dance/blocks

No one has ever said Jihan Wu is not smart. I have a hard time believing he does not realize that Layer 2 solutions will result in increased fees for miners, not decreased. Wonder what his end game really is.

You make some well reasoned points. However Litecoin is lagging Bitcoin in SegWit adoption according to https://twitter.com/Softforks

Jihan Wu is worried SegWit activation will empower faster progress on Lightning which will eat into his mining fees. Until someone convinces him Lightning is not a danger SegWit is dead in the water. You can expect him to try to block SegWit activation on Litecoin also. This is what happens when too much mining power is concentrated under control of one cartel.

The bottom may be in but if $900 does not hold $750-$775 is possible.

Probably because they can and there are a ton of litecoin bagholders waiting to cash out. Look at the weekly chart, these litecoin pumps happen about once a year and are getting weaker a sign that there are fewer long term holders each pump.

The problem is increasingly sophisticated bitcoin malware. One guy on reddit last week lost 16 bitcoin from Bitcoin Core that was password protected. His hygiene may not have been as good as yours but your password is briefly vulnerable when you open your wallet. Hardware wallets are cheap now. 

A guy using the official wallet with passphrase protection lost 16 bitcoin to malware last week posted on reddit. I see these posts more often now. I can appreciate the reasons to run a full node but security of your bitcoin is not one of them until Bitcoin Core supports hardware wallets. Sure you can use Armory cold storage but that is not very convenient.

RSI is really overbought on the daily Bitstamp chart at 90. Last time RSI was 90 was back on January 3 the day before we had a $389 drop. $1780 was also an important Fibonacci extension. 

I think the most relevant Fibonacci extensions are drawn from the previous ATH to $152 low:

It feels like this is the compromise everyone is excited about http://moneyandstate.com/thoughts-on-segwit2mb/ guess we will know later this AM

Sooner or later there will be a healthy Fibonacci 23.6% correction. At current ATH of 2760 that would be 2145.

Trezor uses company servers for firmware updates but you do not have to use the online wallet.trezor.io. Electrum works fine with a Trezor, and you have the ability to send transactions RBF.

$2412 then $2565

Before the ATH is tested there is fair resistance at $2560 - $2600 to break through first. Once the ATH is taken out the Fibonacci extensions give some price targets:



If we add an earlier longer time frame chart of the Fibonacci extensions you can see how the 2.618 extension predicted the current ATH fairly accurately.



Taking both charts into consideration it would seem that if the current ATH is taken out a reasonable price target is between $4200 and $4400.

Look for a pause at $3300 on the way to $4200 - $4400

Absent major drama $4200 - $4400 is doable by year end. Look at past ATHs and compare the rise to previous.

Browse Bollinger Bands on a weekly Bitstamp chart and it looks like price is heading down to 20 MA at $1800 to shake out the weak hands. Should get there by August 1. Place your bids.

btc1 beta build at https://github.com/btc1/bitcoin/releases/tag/v1.14.3. The 1.14.4 production build has not been compiled for Windows yet.

Chinese pools started signaling BIP91 today in order to get SegWit locked in as soon as possible. You can see the holdouts at https://www.xbt.eu/

If it was not SegWit or max block size those who want to seize power from Core would have found some other issue to bitch about and rally around.

If you bought close to the weekly 20 MA good for you! If the ATH is taken out here are some targets to take some profits at. The 1.618 Fibonacci extension is often more accurate than the 2.618.

You have to sweep your paper wallet private keys into a local wallet on your computer that supports both chains and will give you an equal amount of BTC and BCC. That solution does not exist yet though. Stay tuned. If you already have your bitcoin on a Ledger Nano S or Trezor they will most likely support both chains. Electrum may also.

ViaBTC also signed the NYA

For the 2 MB hard fork in three months to occur a majority of miners will have to switch from Core to btc1. That is what I think Bitcoin ABC is really there for, to ensure that miners follow all of the NYA agreement to the letter.

VCORP Services LLC is just the registered agent, many companies incorporate in Delaware for tax advantages. Does not mean Poloniex offices are in Delaware.

BCC or BCH whatever won't even exist until Aug 1 once you have some you can sell at the exchanges that support trading like Kraken.

You should have read the outrage and whining on the Bitcoin ABC slack when two way replay protection was added to the client:)

This is a no brainer. Hold both your BTC and BCC. Remember ETH/ETC fork. Holding both gives you the perfect hedge. If BCC crashes and you want to pick some extra up cheap your call but I would pay with fiat, not with your BTC. You should be able to buy BCC with cash on Kraken.

If you can predict BCC and BTC price 6 months out you should already be a rich retired trader who does not need to hang out on crypto forums:)

@cashodler brings up some valid points. Coinbase changing their stance on BCC was important. It is still early days. John Stuart Millibit wrote an article that laid out a scenario where BCC could take over from BTC in a matter of days, possibly in November if the 2 MB hard fork in SegWit2X is not honoured. Don't forget mining is still centralized in China which means to a large degree what Jihan Wu wants he gets. Smart investors do not bury their heads in the sand but gather information on both sides so they can make informed decisions. 

I think the miner that mined a block with one tx did so to prevent the difficulty from starting to adjust downward again. When the miners are ready to have difficulty reset they will coordinate and you won't see any blocks for a twelve hour period. Then BCH mining difficulty will start ratcheting down to the point mining BCH may be as profitable as bitcoin even at the reduced BCH price. They might wait 7 days until bitcoin difficulty retargets.

Interesting article on possible Bitfinex price spoofing.

$3690 is a 1.618 Fibonacci extension a logical price for a pause or profit taking.

Hope this helps. Fibonacci extensions drawn from most recent swing high to swing low.

Subtract the price at swing low $1830 from previous swing high $2980 to get $1150. Multiply $1150 by 1.618 to get $1860.7. Add that $1860.7 to the $1830 low to get the 1.618 first Fibonacci extension of $3690.7 then repeat for the higher extensions.

Fibonacci retracements and extensions are based on the Fibonacci sequence of numbers. The Golden Ratio 1.618 is found everywhere in nature and also bitcoin charts. Traders have been using Fibonacci for decades because it has been shown to work with markets. Back in January 2015 since I knew the bitcoin low was $152 at that time and the previous ATH was $1163 I could predict a possible future bitcoin price of $2798 from the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. Do you see how Fibonacci can be useful now? In this case it could have helped a smart trader avoid taking profits too early.

Shorting a bull market is tricky and one way novice traders lose money. It is easier to make money just going long in a bull market. If you look at a weekly Bitstamp chart for BTC/USD with a simple 20 period moving average bitcoin price has been above the 20 MA for two years. That is two years of a bull market where all you had to do to make money with bitcoin was buy when price touched a line on a chart, the 20 MA. Last time was last month when you should have bought under $1900.  

Looks like another drop in BCH difficulty in 4 blocks according to bch.xbt.it

$3690 Stamp is a short term Fibonacci projection (or extension.) On the monthly chart the longer term extension is $4400; then $7079.

Follow a weekly chart of BTC/USD and buy when price gets to the 20 MA. That would have gotten you in at under $1900. Right now 20 MA is $2360. Sooner or later the 20 MA weekly will be broken so don't expect this to work forever.

Nicola Duke thinks that if the $4400 level is taken out next stop is $7000. I agree. If you take a look at bitcoin's previous ATH it was halfway between a 4.236 and 6.854 Fibonacci extension of the ATH that preceded it. If you look at the Fibonacci extensions in play now $4400 is important resistance and if taken out $7000 is certainly possible. I have never seen a 6.854 extension in bitcoin take note though. masterluc has mentioned even higher targets that you can see in this Fibonacci extension chart:



These higher targets are low probability though. There is a distinct possibility that the current bitcoin rally can run out of steam between $4400 and $7000 and we would then enter a multi-year bear market. You really want to be mostly out of bitcoin before the next bear market which will be painful. Start taking some profits now. However, there is also a rule to live by: never sell all your bitcoin.

Bitcoin price hit a major long term Fibonacci extension at $4400 and is correcting. What else did you expect:) We have not reached the top yet IMO and $5500 -$6000 is my next target. Worst case is we retreat to $3400 before next push up. Charts and reasoning explained in this article. Happy trading!

Once the $3800 low was in it is possible to draw a new set of Fibonacci extensions on the 4 hour chart:



The local extensions show $4770 as important resistance if $4400 is taken out. The monthly extensions I posted earlier still predict $7079 on a longer time frame.

Fibonacci gives targets for traders to enter or take profits. It was very accurate in predicting $4400 but does not guarantee the market will follow through and advance to $7000. I pointed our earlier that $7000 is lower probability based on previous cycles. masterluc thinks we are headed to $15000 from his posts on a Russian forum (use Google Translate.)

There is a bug in the beta-wallet.trezor.io interface you have to use to claim BCH and use. You won't lose any coins but you may get surprised to see the wrong balance when switching between BTC and BCH if you have multiple accounts and use passphrases. Trezor is working on a fix the problem is explained here.

There is resistance at $7000 due to a long term Fibonacci extension. Also reinforced from point and figure charts.

$5000 is a psychological barrier for sure and some analysts are calling for a correction at $4800 because $4840 is a local Fibonacci 2.618 extension from last swing low:



However the 3 day RSI is only 78 so not overheated yet. When RSI is over 90 I would look for a correction, based on this chart.

@Dotto thanks! Use tools > draw Fibonacci extensions

I hate to be a Debbie Downer but I do not like the risk/reward for btc right now. If we manage to break through $5000 I see a maximum of $5500 to $7000 before a major (meaning painful) correction. I am talking about $2500 to $2800, 50% correction or back to the weekly 20 MA. You know it will come, we just don't know when. I would rather wait for a huge discount to buy. I hope I am wrong, really, but I doubt it.

A 23.6% correction is overdue and would take us to $3840:

$4400 was an important Fibonacci target for Bitcoin price. Yes, the next Fibonacci extension is $7000. However it is way more probable that $5000 was the top for this cycle and we are in the dead cat bounce right now. Veterans are moving into cash because one day probably not far off some news event will cause a 50% crash in bitcoin price overnight. And price will not recover but keep going down. I want to see higher Bitcoin prices as much as anyone else but we are very late in this bull cycle and inevitably we will enter a bear phase lasting at least a year that could see price drop 50% to 75%. Before you take out a second mortgage to buy Bitcoin ask yourself if you can handle holding through a bear market. 

The end of the Cryptocurrency Exchange era in China (translation) - Google Doc

"... It’s important to note, this decision is to close all cryptocurrency to fiat currency exchanges, that is, to halt all exchanged based trading of bitcoin for RMB. But it does not halt all bitcoin and fiat trading outside of exchanges. Someone close to the leadership of the IFRG stated: “what is being closed is bitcoin exchanges, not bitcoin itself”. The same person emphasized, “this ban on exchanges and exchange activity won’t affect the development of blockchain technology.”

Looking at weekly BBands it is easy to see if price breaks support at $3600 we are headed down to the weekly 20 MA at $3000. Last time the weekly 20 MA was tested it was a good time to buy.

On a daily chart the first Fibonacci resistance level up is $4017 if the bottom is in at $3720. Going the other way next long term Fibonacci support level is at $3136.

During this bull market the weekly 20 MA has been respected and RSI has not gone below 50. If the bull market is to continue I think worst case would be a drop to somewhere between the 20 MA and the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. Watch the weekly RSI if it drops below 50 we are probably entering a bear market.

BTC/USD at Bitstamp bounced right off the weekly 20 MA. Until that weekly 20 MA is taken out we are still in a bull market. I draw the Fibonacci support levels properly anchored all the way back at the $152 low. The 38.2% level was broken briefly which is not a concern as the weekly 20 MA held. There is an RSI divergence; again not a concern as it happened before. I do think the 23.6% Fibonacci retrace is an important resistance to break. If there is going to be a weekly dead cat bounce it should be between $3840 and $4000. The sooner price gets back above $4000 the better it is for a continued bull market.

Yeah traders have been bidding the weekly 20 MA for a long time. When that stops we have a problem:)

SMF might have a plugin that allows higher ranked members to ignore all newbie posts I vote for that. I go through a ton of new posts a day from new users and very few are useful. I don't even want to see new user posts frankly.

Trezor fixed the physical memory access hack in the 1.5.2 firmware update, even for Trezors with an older bootloader. Stop spreading FUD.

If ATH is taken out the first Fibonacci extension from most recent swing low is $6200

Fibonacci extensions drawn from previous ATH to swing low predict $6220:

I think we still have a ways to go. The last two ATHs coincided with weekly RSI over 95. This week RSI is only 79.49. The next two Fibonacci extension levels to watch closely for topping behaviour are $7079 and $11360.

You are not going to be able to call the top if we go parabolic but I guarantee you that you want to be in cash before the crash comes.

Sure when you see $1000 move in one day. That is not sustainable so would be healthier for the rise to be slower but you deal with the reality.

Sometimes it helps to look at a log scale chart. Here is Bitstamp daily bitcoin log scale with a reasonable pitchfork drawn:



The pitchfork suggests we may reach roughly $8000 before a sharp correction down to about $5000 before new all time highs greater than $10,000 by year end. The sell off might occur during the fork drama and rather than the end of the world present just another buying opportunity.

You really think both chains will survive?

No problem here you go:

Here is the message quoted from the bitcoin-segwit2x mailing list confirming that the hard fork is suspended:

That is remarkable for a wallet. Have to take a look at Samourai.

There was plenty of time to sell above $7000. I put up this pitchfork previously. Correction was overdue and might be as deep as $5000 to $5300:



Bottom may coincide with 3 day RSI under 50. It turns out that BCH is acting as a hedge for BTC and those who held on to their airdropped BCH are doing well. There is no guarantee BCH price will continue up though. Bitcoin will bottom out and recover.

But BTC sent to exchanges does. Monday will be interesting. BCH difficulty is forecast to double in 24 hours so miners will switch back to BTC and the memory pool should clear. Lot of coins probably reaching exchange wallets. Could see $5000 if panic selling starts.

It is a good idea to check the bitcoin memory pool before sending to see if there is a transaction backlog. If there are more than 50K transactions waiting to be confirmed consider waiting. The memory pool should clear later today when Bitcoin Cash difficulty increases by 400% and miners switch back to mining Bitcoin.

Stay away from hitbtc.com they may be selective scamming.

So far this year since July bitcoin price has stayed within the channels of this pitchfork drawn on a log scale chart:



The trend lines suggest a mid-term top around $9000 followed by a correction back to around $7900. Price could also correct back the the mid-line at $6500. Where it gets interesting is if price breaks through the top trend line. Also something to keep in mind is January tends to be a down month, so I am expecting a rally into middle of December then some profit taking.  

Traders may just have decided it is time to pump ETH. OTOH since many alts are going up I rather think it is diversification: people who own more bitcoin than they feel comfortable holding through a bear market are moving some to alts.

From Bitcoin Trading Signals site. Enky thinks max target this week is $9800.

Enky takes a different TA approach using standard deviations. It is unlikely that price will reach the +3 deviation line at $9846 without a pullback first. The upper trend line of the Andrews pitchfork I am following is right at $9100 now. You can also do a Fibonacci extension prediction from the last swing high to swing low:



The Fibonacci projection is $9300. All three TA approaches suggest we are due for a correction, and the closer price gets to $9000 the higher the probability. TA is a tool to help traders set profit targets not infallible of couse. When the correction occurs I expect price to dip to between $5K and $6.3K.

You should send a small test transaction to your new Nano S, maybe $50. Securely wipe it and restore from the 24 word seed. When you see the correct balance after the restore you should be confident that the developers really do know what they are doing. If you put anything in the cryptosteel it should be your seed though. Also consider using the advanced option of using passphrase protected accounts. That way if someone gains access to your seed your bitcoin are still safe as long as the passphrase is kept in your head. This option is not for everyone though.

Bitcoin price is testing the upper trend line of this Andrew's Pitchfork.



A pullback to about $9000 would be healthy before another attempt to push through $10K. If price does break through $10K the upper trend line could become support.

Bitcoin price just reached the 11.09 Fibonacci extension from last ATH to swing low. This has never happened before in the history of bitcoin. A correction is already taking place, the question is: does price continue advancing to the next extension at $18286?

If you are going to invest in hosted mining the most profitable option from my experience is pool.viabtc.com. Now you may not want to buy from them because of their support for BCH. If that is not a problem for you they have the lowest daily fees I have found and they also have an internal market so you can sell your rented hashpower if you get bored. Stay away from Hashnest and pool.bitcoin.com because they charge higher fees which eat into your profit. They also charge more than viabtc per TH/s. Or you can just buy bitcoin and hold.

I drew up this chart yesterday expecting a drop to $8741 before an advance to a new ATH:



Good to see price up from $9000 but I still have some concern we may go lower to complete an ABC Elliott Wave 4 correction.

All you have to do is visit https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#24h scroll down and easily see that over half the transactions in memory pool paid a miner fee of 0 - 5 satoshi/byte. Are those legitimate transactions or spam? Most likely latter.

Here is a new Andrew's Pitchfork with trend line projections drawn into first quarter 2018:



Remember chart is log scale.

Sure not going to spoil it for you. You can always buy the episode on Amazon.

The next Fibonacci extension is $18282. I talked previously about why this was an important resistance level. After that there is the psychological barrier at $20K then the higher Fib extension at $29490. This is getting into serious bubble territory. When there is a crash it will be something to see.

You can consider bitFlyer they are approved for 42 US states though the main office is in Japan. One downside is you have to fund your account with a wire transfer for fiat.

Porsches are fun I have owned a few and never regretted the purchase at all. Just don't buy a boat God forbid:)

You won't lose any money just the delay (which is problem enough to deal with) however they may decide to close your account.

Don't overlook the gem of Gaea Trilogy by John Varley.

Local Fibonacci extensions on Bitstamp:



$19100 also agrees with high of weekly range from our friend Enky

Food for thought: you are going to see vendors start switching from taking bitcoin to litecoin. The average fee today for a bitcoin transaction was $21. For litecoin 27 cents. Vendors are getting stuck bitcoin transactions and are no longer willing to deal with it. Why do you think the price of litecoin is going through the roof?

People are tired of $20 transaction fees and vendors of stuck bitcoin transactions. Average litecoin fee is under 50 cents. If I were selling on the marketplace I would be accepting litecoin only right now until LN is working well.

Sorry to be a downer but the free viabtc txacclerator is basically useless because they only permit a few free accelerations per hour. If you open an account at pool.viabtc.com and spend some bitcoin for S9 cloud hash you will be given a quantity of accelerations you may use. At least that was the way it worked last year.

The two happiest days of your life are when you buy a boat and then sell the hole in the water.

January 16 bitcoin price bounced off the weekly 20 MA. You can see this has happened before and the bull market stayed intact.



Bulls snapped up bitcoin under $10,000 as this might be the last time you see four digit bitcoin prices.

We really do not want to see $6-8K. Prices that low would signal a bear market with a high degree of confidence. A double bottom at $9200 could happen without ending the bull market.

Bitmain has only been accepting BCH payment for miners since October 1 last year. It has been a while not something they just started doing.

Masterluc/lucif/Vanga had his Russian Tradingview account suspended for breaking some rule here is the last photo posted before account went down:



I have read on Russian forum (https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga) that vanga thinks Wave 4 finished but he gives low probability that we may see lower lows. Being vague in other words and leaving open option that Elliott Wave 4 is not yet over. I think one can watch the daily 200 MA for clarification:



If the daily 200 MA holds I call Wave 4 complete. May take a month or so then we have Wave 5. If that MA breaks not good news.

Traders in cash I think until next week's Senate meeting with SEC and CFTC. $7600 is an important Fibonacci resistance level. Market needs to get back over $7600 and that could happen next Tuesday if news is good or even neutral.

One day at a time breaking through Fibonacci resistance at $7600 would be very positive.

Based on what arguments? I have been watching the hearing and see it neutral to positive. It does appear that SEC is not comfortable with approving a bitcoin ETF yet, that could be considered a negative.

IMO on 4 hour chart: crossing 850 EMA (blue line) which is also close to long term 50% Fibonacci retrace from $152 (tl;dr over $9900):

Volume 2/5/18 was highest since Sept 14 last year and we closed with a daily green candle piercing pattern. Often a reversal sign. We might double bottom but I think we are heading up after a retrace to $7000 - $7100.

Just use the ignore button and don't peek:)

Providing some help sorry I don't recognize the source could be Bitfinex. You can always go to tradingview and create a chart yourself here is an example (not my work.)

Yup looks like you need a pro account to list the divisions but with a free account you can graph both BTCLONGS and BTCSHORTS on the same graph and calculate the ratio yourself.

Bitcoin failed to break through the daily 200 MA on April 23 and April 24. TA says we are in a bear market right now as daily 50 MA is below the 200 MA. We might stay in the $6500 - $9500 range for months. Your best re-entry indicator is most likely the Golden Cross when 50 MA crosses 200 MA on the daily chart on volume. If price does not get back above $10000 within a few months I expect a year long bear market. Sorry about that.

You should be looking at the daily 200 MA instead which has been resistance since bitcoin had a Death Cross on Mar 29. A Death Cross is the daily 50 MA crossing below the 200 MA and technical analysts consider it confirmation of a bear market. Once in a while there is a false Death Cross that fakes out the traders but for the bull market to resume price first has to break through the 200 MA on volume and the 50 MA must cross back above the 200 MA and rather soon I think.

Ever since the Death Cross late March bitcoin price has found resistance at the daily 200 MA. We are in a bear market until price breaks through the 200 MA. Also testing the 50 MA right now: if 50 MA does not hold next resistance range is $6400 - $7300.



Best case scenario IMO is we are range bound between the 50 and 200 MA until one or the other is breached.

Ranging between the daily 50 MA and 200 MA is just noise. Your confirmation is daily price breaking through the 200 MA, testing and holding.

All you really need is a daily chart with 50 and 200 MA right now. Price is ranging between those MA's: go long or short when one or the other is taken out. Good TA does not have to be complicated. Actually simpler is better from my experience. Also: if two different approaches like MA and PnF or Ichimoku agree the probability of the trade being a winner increases.

I don't think you really appreciate the power of TA. The simplest daily 50/200 MA Golden Cross would have told you to start buying bitcoin at $415 and hold. When the 3 day RSI hit an unprecedented 92.99 price was over $16,000 and was a clear signal to start selling. If you missed the top there was a dead cat bounce to $17,000 before the 50/200 Death Cross final exit signal occurred at $9300. Until daily 50 MA crosses above the 200 again we are in a bear market. Every bear market is different; this one might only last 6 months but a year is quite possible until sellers are done.

Glad the problem was resolved. There is bitcoin stealing malware you really should consider using a Trezor with Electrum to protect your private keys.

Swear to God (yes I am a Christian) this is the Wall Observer thread and needs more moderation. If you want to talk about Nazis, holocaust speculation, silver or gold bugs, people of different faiths like Jews and Muslims or tin foil hat controversies there are other forums that will welcome you. I don't post much here anymore because 1) I am busy day trading and 2) over about half the posts here seem to have nothing to do with Bitcoin. It is becoming a bit of a joke and a cesspool frankly. Just a thought.

Not at all. Remember this? Back to trading I am shorting when I see a proper set up.

This book is a very good read (scan is minus charts and links.) First half is devoted to the history of money and some economic theory, e.g. explains why silver will never be a good investment, last half explains how bitcoin works, the controversies and is current up to post BCH fork. The author is bullish long term on bitcoin and this is the best book I have ever read on monetary theory and bitcoin that is written for beginners. Do the author a solid and buy a copy or download to your Kindle.

Silver bugs never respect the lesson the Hunt brothers learned the hard way. If you want to diversify your portfolio buy gold. Silver bullion is a poor store of value and will remain so while gold is not.

I never promoted Ethereum in this thread and don't own any. Give a reference to a post where I did or apologize for your insults. I am surprised the moderators still allow you to post here since you call bitcoin a "shitcoin". You really deserve to be banned from the forum.

I hear you. I'll just put him on ignore.

Agreed. I do have a problem when the moderators tolerate folks like @realr0ach insulting Legendary members.

I warned bitcoin was in a serious bubble last December and I sincerely hope many of you got out over $18,000. We already had the dead cat bounce (great short entry at $15,000) and we are now under a daily Death Cross which is the final confirmation of a bear market:



Any bounce up this month is a bull trap IMO and should be used to raise cash or short. I don't believe we will see the final capitulation until end of this year. Point of maximum pain has not been reached yet and best time to buy is when "there is blood in the streets". I do believe that long term bitcoin will do just fine but expecting a new ATH before the middle to end of 2019 is very low probability. Like unicorn sighting low probability. Sorry about that.

Take trading advice here and confirm with your own analysis. Learn Ichimoku Cloud, Fibonacci, 50/200 daily moving averages/RSI and learn to make your own trading decisions. You don't become a profitable trader in one month for most it takes at least a year with guidance from a mentor. Most new traders get wiped out and quit if they are on their own.

In the future I will be posting any important bitcoin analysis or trading set ups on my own website. I have not devoted much time to it lately (too busy trading) but that will change.

Unless $10,000 is taken out on volume this advance is just a bull trap in an ongoing bear market. Sorry about that; expecting a bear market that is only 7 months old to end now is a stretch.

There is a Fibonacci 23.6% at $9053 but the serious overhead resistance is at $11688 (red line.) But first we have to get through the psychological barrier at ten grand.

Also see latest post:

Here is a good, brief overview of IPv6 vs IPv4.

From https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/peirce-dissent-34-83723

Sure also see https://twitter.com/AureliusBTC/status/1022864464834691072

Subscribe to BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest if you have not already. Good insights.

The documentary was fair. Considering the pump occurred half an hour after the doc was over it may have been a factor.

Coldcard is a new product and only supports bitcoin: no altcoins. Trezor has been around for four years now, Ledger Nano S for two. Best to stick with well tested products with a good history IMO.

Garza had good legal representation as he got off with a light sentence. His was the number one cryptocurrency scam I wrote about back in 2015; Litecoin GEAR came in second place.

Gridseed and Zeus Miners were legit companies that made miners they sold under their own brand. GAW also resold them and had Zeus Miners make some miners for GAW that were rebranded with names like Falcon and War Machine. The Thunder was a Zeus made and branded miner.

If you follow the collectibles market here some collectors are starting to sell off expensive collections of Casascius, Kialaras, etc. I consider this bullish because they are indicating they would rather hold bitcoin at this time than the collectible coins, and expect bitcoin to appreciate more than their collection over the next year or so. Call it a possible leading indicator.

See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2818350.0

@micgoossens just four more posts and you rank up to Hero:)

You are right my bad.

Activity is calculated with the following formula:
Code:
activity = min(time * 14, posts)

Activity is increased by staying logged in or by posting and is updated every 30 minutes. There is a maximum of 14 activity points every 2 weeks. You can only gain up to 14 Activity points even if you have more than 14 posts. On the day 15 the cycle restarts and you can again collect your 14 points. But hey you are very close.

And if you aren't an experienced trader who has consistently had winning trades (for years) just wait. It would be easy to get stopped out here if you set your stop too tight. IMO it might be another bull trap and I would feel more comfortable waiting for $7500 to buy but if this is not a fake out you lose $1000 in profit. I don't like the reward for the risk buying right now though: volume is still too low. May well be still stuck in a trading range.

What's with the hat fetish? Lately I'm reminded of "I never saw so many shocking bad hats in my life" said Arthur Wellesley, First Duke of Wellington, as quoted in "Words on Wellington" (1889) by Sir William Fraser.

Yup looks like PentarhUdi (masterluc) is allowing for short term bear scenarios where he still turns out to be correct long term (covering his butt) not very useful IMO.

There is also the edge to edge effect where once price enters the cloud it can be drawn to the opposite edge.

Ledger has their own problems after users have reported losing XMR when sending using the Nano S with the Monero GUI. One person lost 1600 XMR still waiting to see if it can be recovered. ATM Ledger says OK to receive XMR but not to send.

No not official. Watch for a bounce off of the 200 day MA: traders will. Currently at $4600. If the MA does not hold we will probably be back into a trading range while accumulation continues.

A time tested, very reliable TA indicator to watch is the daily 200 moving average. If price does not hold $4600 we are back in a trading range. If price tests $4600 and holds there is a chance we are in the beginning of a new bull market. Many momentum traders wait until the 50 MA crosses over the 200 MA to go long. That confirms the new bull market. They may miss out on some profits but the risk is lower and you can set stops tighter.

I suspect price will test the 200 MA (orange) before resuming the up trend. If it stays around $5000 we are about a month away from a 50/200 Golden Cross. While this is bullish it could be a fake out and price could still drop back below the 200 MA for a few months. Last time we had a Golden Cross was back in July 2015 then the bull market took off in October 2015.

A traditional Golden Cross happens on the daily chart when the 50 day simple moving average crosses over the 200 MA. We are not quite there yet:

Watch $8600. If you follow PnF the point and figure charts say we could go parabolic to $50K+ if we get a weekly close above $8600 on Bitstamp.

Monero comes to mind with its opaque blockchain.

Just put him on ignore.

$8600 is the tipping point of the see saw ... if we break through $8600 we can easily see $10K. If we can't push through $8600 I think a retest of $6000 is looking likely.

Take a look at https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2019/05/21/craig-wright-registers-us-copyright-in-bitcoin-0-1-and-the-bitcoin-white-paper-what-this-means/

Market is looking tired. Time to visit the daily 50 MA? 50% retrace of this last leg up is $5856 which is close to that 50 MA.

Not quite ... weekly close over $8600 from my PnF charts.

I have had some great vegetarian Indian dishes ... no way Indian is vegan though ... but so delicious I could learn to live without meat with great Indian takeaway nearby.

When we advanced past $8600 today the weekly point and figure chart gave a buy signal, one more confirmation we are in a bull market, not a bull trap in a bear market as some still believe. This is using the most conservative settings on my PnF charts: more aggressive settings would have signaled a long entry much earlier. It is BTFD time or get left behind.

I see lots of interesting forecasts but no one has posted Fibonacci extensions yet. Here is a chart of the extensions showing likely price levels when the last all time high is taken out:



During the last bull market price actually passed the 17.944 extension which this time is off the chart and would be $300,000. So next time someone asks you how high bitcoin price could go if the ATH is taken out you can say Fibonacci says $300K based on the last bull market.

Three day RSI can be useful. Over 90-92 is a strong signal to take profits. It would have gotten you out close to the December 2017 top or at the least warned you to sell on the dead cat bounce a month later. 3D RSI has not been over 90 since then.

Best not to feed the trolls by quoting or responding to them that is why there is an ignore button.

Price stalled almost exactly at the Fibonacci 38.2% retrace level of $9442. If it can break though next resistance is psychological at $10K. Low volume is troubling, suggests a pullback first.

Good thread on why Libra will fail https://twitter.com/RTaylor05/status/1140998048631287808 but bring attention to crypto

We are in a new bull market but are making new highs on lower volume each time which is a sign we are due for a correction. Could we make $10000 first? Who knows but I would put some low ball bids in to buy between $7200 to $8000 as the low volume indicates this rally is running out of steam.

If price and volume are moving in the same direction, the trend of the commodity price will usually continue. If they are running counter to each other as my chart showed that is a warning of an impending pullback in price. We are in a bitcoin bull market so shorting is reserved for experts who know how to scalp, all others should go long when price drops.

Here are the resistance levels to watch on the way up:

Yup we are back to 5 digits but watch 10 grand may be tested need to see if support holds.

Symmetrical triangle forming. Usually the break out is in the direction of the existing trend but with bitcoin there are no guarantees:

I like to see a thirty minute green candle completely above the triangle to confirm the breakout.

As expected price broke up from the triangle hope everyone bought the breakout. Price has stalled at the 50% Fibonacci retracement from last ATH to swing low. Next price target is the 61.8% retracement at $13346:

$11,780 to $12000 then next major resistance level is the 61.8 Fib at $13346. $13,346 is the major hump IMO.

What TA did you use for 12288? Fibonacci extensions from the minor correction show we are a bit overextended now perhaps time for a pull back, but honey badger is on a tear.

Watch the $13,346 area for a possible stall:

Well the current high on Bitstamp is $12,936. During this run each time the high was taken out we were good for another advance. Your money your trade. You might leave some money on the table, may not. You can be sure at some point we will have a $1000 or more dump where you can buy back in.

A wise man once told me never short a bull market buy the dips instead.

Proper Fibonacci retracement levels:

So far this has not even corrected to the 50% Fib bull market intact IMO. We all know price went up too far too fast. We have seen this before and will see it again.



Looking at the correction from a different perspective the dump was not even 23.6%.

I respect successful day traders who can scalp a living. Me, I prefer medium to long term trades lasting months to years. You will never be able to predict exact turning points, but identifying a trend and taking a position is not that hard. You just need a piece of the trend, don't get greedy. So far bitcoin has well rewarded the large majority of long term holders.

70% recovery in four hours not bad at all.

Nice call just broke overhead resistance at $12100.

IMO moon and $13,800 was not the top. Follow 3 day RSI and look for a top to form when 3 day RSI is over 90. I believe $10,300 was the local bottom.

If like me you follow point and figure charts the weekly indicates a reversal at $9412:



Others would look at the daily 50 SMA now at ~ $8900. Daily Ichimoku Cloud support is at $8000. Me, I would not like to see price break through the $10,000 level.

We are having a nice recovery so far but don't be too impatient. I would like to see accumulation between about $11,000 and $11,600 for a week or two that would give time for momentum to build before another leg up taking out $12,447. I would hate to see another fast parabolic rise and dump again but that may well happen anyways:)

I started buying way under $40. At that time I saw the promise but still considered bitcoin to be highly speculative and really did not recommend to friends to buy. However when price got up to $400 I started telling my friends that can handle some risk that they better start diversifying into bitcoin. Only one friend took my advice and still didn't buy until over $8000. You can lead a horse to water etc.

Here is another way to use Fibonacci the way my mentor taught me to do Fibonacci extentions. Results agree from two approaches.



Even higher Fibonacci extensions predict $300,000 I wrote about it here.

Ledger Nano S has been compromised also as shown here. As long as you use a 12 character passphrase Stick has said on /r/Trezor it costs about $1M to bruteforce a Trezor T.

Looks like it this could be the bag https://www.ideanow.online/store/BITCOINS-Bag-p100718524

Strong overhead resistance on the daily Bitstamp chart at $12447. Breaking through could be interesting and accelerate the pump, also burn the shorts.

I think it is more probable that BTC/USD stays within the Kama Bands enky.nakamura uses this month than taking out last months' high.

The majority of traders I know use Golden Cross and Death Cross to refer to 50 and 200 SMA crossovers on the daily chart, with confirmation following on the 3 day chart. On the BTC/USD daily we had a Golden Cross back on April 23. On the three day we are close to getting confirmation, not there yet though. You can look at lower time frames sure if you are a day trader but you will be getting a better signal to noise ratio on daily and 3 day charts. We briefly dipped below the 50 SMA on the daily but are now back above.

As long as $10000 holds next major resistance is at $10235 then $11120 on Bitstamp see the daily chart:



Bitcoin price also tends to respect Fibonacci retracement levels shown on the chart below:



Considering the M top in the daily chart I think we have a near term bearish bias and the odds are greater we visit the middle Bollinger Band on the weekly chart before continuing to advance. Hope I am wrong but that would mean a drop to about $7900 currently. Sooner or later during a new bull market price tends to test the weekly middle BBand:



Actually a trading range $9000 to $10000 for a month or so to build momentum would be good letting the middle Bollinger Band rise to price. Can't rule out a flash crash to $8000 though we have all seen that before.

I have combined Fibonacci retracement levels from both the weekly and 3 day Bitstamp charts below. You can see we are into a bullish 3 day 50/200 MA Golden Cross but there is significant overhead resistance at $11,400 on Bitstamp where Fibonacci levels from the weekly and 3 day charts overlap and reinforce each other.

I consider $11,500 a tipping point, if price can break that level on volume we have a good chance of making it to $13,880. The weekly middle BBand is right at $8,000 now and the worst case I see is very strong support at $7,000 to $7,500.

People tend to forget just how speculative bitcoin really is. Sure it has been around over ten years but it is still a grand experiment and experiments fail sometimes. I tend to think in 5 years bitcoin will be either be worth more than $50,000 or zero. If Wall Street can make money from it that is a powerful force to keep bitcoin alive. Sure it is decentralized but governments can shut down the on and off ramps like Coinbase if they decide bitcoin is a real threat to fiat. Or regulate them to the point price crashes.

Tipping point reached bulls in control.

Be careful what you wish for. The weekly point and figure chart shows bull market would reverse to bear if we have a weekly close under $9412:

enky.nakamura developed a useful support and resistance band based indicator called KAMA V1.22 which is available on TradingView. Right now bitcoin tested and held support but is still below the daily KAMA moving average which is at about $11000.

No problem. You are not a Full Member yet. From https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1689727.0


Keep participating in the forum, when you reach Full Member status you can then upload your own avatar or have someone make you one.

Sorry to hear that ... did you catch the flu even after getting a flu shot?

Calling game over before price even breaks through the daily 200 MA at $9100 is likely too optimistic. Still work to be done.

Price found overhead resistance right at the daily 200 MA and retraced as I suggested earlier. Sometimes all you need to watch are the common moving averages.



So far we have found support at the 1 hour 200 MA on Bitstamp. I expect to tread water here with perhaps a dip to $8000 until there is another attempt to break though $9000. Watch the weekly candle see how it closes today.

Inovio Pharmaceuticals says they have already developed a vaccine for 2019-nCoV (confirmed by this press release) and getting ready to start human trials this summer, and they are not the only company working on the problem. It is being taken very seriously indeed. Pro tip: buy stock in INO on Nasdaq.

May be very early days. I signed up for the beta and still have not heard back but indeed could be a killer app if it takes hold.

$9273 to $9442 is a zone of strong resistance predicted from multiple Fibonacci retracements. I would be happy with a green weekly candle TBH.

While holding $9000 is welcome the daily BBands are sloping up so many traders are going to be looking to buy if price drops to the middle BBand at $8900.

BTC/USD still trying to break out of the long term Fibonacci zone of resistance at $9273 to $9442. These are the two key long term Fibonacci resistance levels drawn from two different major swing highs to swing lows. Waiting for a weekly close above $9442.



Point and figure charting is time agnostic. The daily PnF chart gave a buy signal at $9262 next one will be at $10424.

Bitcoin can drop 900-1000 dollars over five days and not damage the bull market. That's what happened from Jan 18 to Jan 23 and many new users think the sky is falling (veterans buy the dip) then price recovers. Right now price could decline to the middle daily BBand about $9000 at any time. $10,000 will come soon enough. Consider any pullback a buying opportunity.

Mixers don't work. Chain analysis companies have been able to track bitcoin through mixers for some time now.

Never sell all your BTC. Even if life requires you to raise cash please try to keep some you can afford to lose for that next parabolic rise in price.

Thank you for the kind words. I have found Fibonacci extensions to be very valuable in projecting price action. Times have changed since the last parabolic rise and history does not have to repeat itself. Bitcoin still reigns with highest market cap and first mover advantage. I give odds about 60% that we will see a new ATH within the next two years and the first Fibonacci extension projection is at $24166.



There are some hurdles to overcome first. Ten grand is a significant first psychological barrier then when that falls and holds on volume we can start thinking about a new ATH. Times have changed and futures on bitcoin may tend to dampen a new parabolic rise. I don't see prices higher than $25000 impossible though, just lower probability over the next year or two.

The next higher Fibonacci extension past 1.27 is the 1.618 at $29,890. I don't think $100,000 is impossible within the next two years, just low probability. I would be happy with steady growth and adoption with real use of the Lightning network. Thirty thousand in three years but I could be too conservative: would be glad to be proven wrong.

Technical analysis does not have to be too complicated for those trading long term (over six month time frame.) A very simple indicator would have gotten you long at all the significant bottoms over the last 5 years. Just put up a 3 day BTC/USD chart using Bitstamp. Overlay the RSI indicator. Buy when RSI is under 23 and hold. I am surprised not that many analysts have recommended this setup. These signals are infrequent but worth the wait. Exiting is also easy though not as accurate: when RSI is over 92 it is a very good idea to lighten up on your longs.

I believe about 60% of bitcoin mining hash power is in China. Concerns that the epidemic is going to affect mining operations and delivery of new mining hardware as halving approaches?

Good to know thanks.

Enky Nakamura is one analyst I respect very much: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/UldTsLQ7-Long-Term-Update/

Pro tip for free: at some point in a bull run BTC price will touch the weekly 20 MA. Use that as a low risk entry. Takes patience, just put in your buy order and adjust.

Sure it did early in the last bull run. If you want to be assured of getting filled just adjust your buy price up a few percent above the weekly 20 MA. Later in a bull run you need to use oversold indicators.

I don't get why people still follow someone like masterluc who is not willing to post his analysis here for constructive criticism. The shine has worn off that particular penny IMO. That being said I expect any correction to stop at the weekly 20 MA. Let's see who is correct. Do I get a hat if I win?

The bull market is still intact. Some profit taking is healthy. Suggest anyone who is getting nervous quit worrying about the $10,000 level and noise on an hourly chart and start using weekly charts. Sooner or later price will pull back to the middle Bollinger Band, which is the 20 period moving average. Consider that a buying opportunity.



Look back on the weekly chart and you can see several times at the start of the last bull market weekly price corrected to the middle Bollinger Band and recovered no problem. If price action heats up traders will set buy orders right at the middle BBand so you might want to put your buy orders a bit above that level.

Viruses are spread as much by hand as aerosol which is why washing your hands frequently is important. You also need eye protection and paper masks are no real protection against a virus. You need an N95 NIOSH rated mask (or better) which are in short supply now as people are buying them up when they should be reserved for health care workers, at least in countries outside of China.

Boats are really a hole in the water. Go for it if you really love fishing. I always buy a used car let someone else take the depreciation hit.

Good point. I don't fly but if I was a private pilot I could see trying to swing a small private prop plane for fun. I have owned boats and never again ... I am not an avid fisherman. I have friends who live for fishing, like tarpon tournaments, it is their passion and they sink a lot of money into their hobby. Their wives feel it keeps them out of trouble, so to speak.

I can take or leave fishing. When I do fish, I like to use someone else's boat and I always chip in for the diesel. Guys who are into trophy fishing almost never use gas engines, they prefer diesel for long life and reliability in my experience. These are the guys with forty foot boats with inboard engines, not your weekend fisherman who tows a boat.

Look at a longer term chart. Weekly RSI is 63 not overbought yet. Price is starting to walk the weekly upper BBand which is expanding and the weekly 20 MA is turning up. We still have upside momentum IMO.

You really should be using a good VPN all the time with their own DNS servers. For those times you are not on the VPN configure the DNS servers for both your computer and router to one recommended by OpenNIC. Don't use a modem and router supplied by your ISP, buy your own.

We are at critical support right now at the weekly 20 MA middle Bollinger Band. If the 20 MA does not hold we are headed down to $7000. I don't really see a new ATH until at least a year from now, possibly earlier if the coronavirus is brought under control with a vaccine. If we do go down when weekly RSI is below 30 that would present a lower risk entry.

It is good to zoom out and look at weekly charts to avoid noise. A weekly Bitstamp chart shows just how precarious BTC/USD price is. It could fall out of the cloud at any time and next support level is $7000.



A green weekly candle so far is positive but we really need to continue advancing and get above the weekly cloud.

Based on history of the indicator we should be getting close to a bottom as https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/ reads extreme fear.

We need more like you to confirm a bottom is in. When you feel it is time to panic sell it is often the time to start buying. You ever heard the phrase "the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets"?

Everyone should take a look at this twitter thread on the Imperial College team report on COVID-19 and read the pdf of the report. It may be on the news tonight. Trump may call it fake news but the governors of US states and the CDC sure won't.

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

We are in uncharted territory something I never expected to see within my lifetime. Until there is a vaccine it is likely COVID-19 will be seasonal and will return. That is if we get it under control which is not a given. We don't know if it will mutate into a less virulent strain or become more infectious. And just like the seasonal flu we will most likely need a new vaccine each year. We also don't know yet to what extent survivors are immune to reinfection. Social distancing buys time until there are better treatments and a vaccine.

Still waiting to see if BTC decouples from the DJIA. Today looked promising but too early to tell.