Maybe I'm going to look back in one year from now (or even 6 months)
I really like this chart.
I think that the chart depicts historical aspects of BTC prices that constitutes, more or less, a more than 8X increase per year over the almost 4 year period; however, most of that growth occurred in 2011 - accordingly, the growth seems to be skewed towards 2011. In this regard, there seem to exist decreasing intensities in the magnitude of each of the BTC bubbles, and maybe the increased BTC prices have made difficulties in having continued bubbles of 8x or greater?
NONETHELESS, if another major bubble of 8x or more were to occur, then these previous price increases will merely be part of the description of an ongoing pattern.
Personally, I am torn about what to believe, yet I am somewhat skeptical that continued bubbles of 8x or more is sustainable, even though I do believe that it is possible to have a few more 8x or greater bubbles in the coming years.
The chart above shows both bursts and drops, and the price bursts occurred:
early 2011 = 5x
mid 2011 = 41x
late 2011 = 3x
2012 = 3x
early 2013 = 18x
late 2013 = 9x
So far 2014, has been mostly downward, with a bit of gradual upward momentum in the last two months; however, it seems that we are still waiting to see what is going to happen in the remainder of 2014 in order to characterize BTC prices for this year and to prognosticate the direction of BTC.
Surely, it does seem possible that BTC prices will remain more or less flat for the remainder of 2014; however, given the intensity of continued ongoing good news, various multimillion dollar investments into BTC, the appearance that several wall-street interests are looking into BTC investments, government regulations that are tolerable towards ongoing BTC growth, efforts to establish more user-friendly applications, greater BTC adoption and awareness and continued opportunities for liquidity, it is seeming less and less probable that BTC prices can be kept down for the remainder of 2014, absent some catastrophic negative BTC event. Also, it seems that if BTC prices go past $850 or so in the next 6 months, then inevitably, BTC prices are going to spurt into a new ATH, in the range of $2,500 to $5,000.
who wouldn't like that chart... it seems to imply more hype cycle iterations.
good observation on decreasing magnitude. If you look only at the major ones (41x, 18x, 9x), one could extrapolate that the next one might only reach 4.5x (if we put the start at $800, it would peak at $3,400)
I did a simple ratio analysis of this in March. I came to similar conclusions. As a matter of fact, there seems to be a differential pattern in the increase ratio between highs and the price increase factor.
Here is the analysis I did back then:
http://pastebin.com/TTJxrxxUI suspected the price would stabilize at $600 (I used the same simple differential methods to find where prices seem to stabilize to after a bubble has popped). It has stabilized to $620, which is close, and that is the figure we should use to multiply with. $620*4.4122=$2735, which is even closer to the increase ratio result.
I made this kind of analysis since 2011, but back then there were very few results to make anything out of it. But I used other variables such as user base, number of transactions, volatility of price e.t.c. There is an obvious trend; bitcoins userbase only grows. It is impossible for the price to stay at $620, and extremely likely for the price to go up. A bubble is incoming, and there is a possibility yet another bubble will form after that one. Beyond that, due to the fact that the coins have spread to many more hands, it is unlikely extreme shortages of btc/oversupply of FIAT occurs again to make for a bubble - instead, price would appreciate linearly, not logarithmically.
Growth rates aside, one thing is for sure. Bitcoin is set to dominate the e-commerce industry. This page tells us of its limits:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/ScalabilityI don't think so. I doubt he would approve of subversive altcoin garbage like "Classic" and the chumps behind it.
It can be phased in, like:
if (blocknumber > 115000)
maxblocksize = largerlimit
That's essentially BitcoinClassic, proposed by Satoshi.
Thank you for the memory.
Segwit and all that comes with it does not seem negative in itself, but refusing to raise blocksize is. Bitcoin is growing and developers dont have the right to stop this growth.
voted
the only issue with core is that the lightning network is not yet finished. otherwise the segwit stuff is only a tiny increase... but apparently the change is needed for the possibility of the lightning network being implemented. AND EVEN THEN, a block increase will be needed. it does verily seem that the core developers are just trying to go against gavin/jeff garzik.
I guess we will ultimately see where core developers stand. Because despite all the additions 1mb blocks arent enough. If blocks start to get full and they (core developers) still deny max blocksize increases then
they will create a fork, and youll have a bunch of more mature and/or less dependent on blockstreams ability to make profit who will jump over to classic and add all the goodies there.
Socialism: Education and health care should be free for everybody. Health and education is a birth right. The rich must pay for them. (Europe)
Capitalism: If you aren't rich enough, you don't deserve to live. Dieeee (USA)
I'll go with Europe.
Just little research would show you it is the lower and middle class who pays the bill, the elite pay with their spare change for some lobbyism to change laws and make capital flight legal through loopholes, with transnational corporations, sending all profits to tax havens.
Instead of sticking to simple examples, why don't you go to the root philosophical differences. Individual property rights vs no property rights. Fighting you way up for greater pay vs almost equal pay for all. Individual responsibility vs collective responsibility. If you're smart enough to understand why Bitcoin exists and why there is a demand for it you can figure out the implications of socialism if you just try.
Well.
Being quarantined sucks.
But do you know what sucks the most?
Fascism.
First example: Orban getting full powers to "fight Coronavirus".
Who is going to strip him from those powers if/when crisis is solved?
The nationalist government in Hungary passed a law Monday granting sweeping emergency powers that Prime Minister Viktor Orban says are necessary to fight the coronavirus pandemic.
Those powers include sidelining parliament and giving Orban the power to rule by decree indefinitely. The law would punish those who spread false information about the pandemic with up to five years in prison.
"Changing our lives is now unavoidable," Orban told lawmakers last week. "Everyone has to leave their comfort zone. This law gives the government the power and means to defend Hungary."
During Monday's vote, he said: "When this emergency ends, we will give back all powers, without exception."
But critics insist that Orban is using the pandemic to grab power. "An indefinite and uncontrolled state of emergency cannot guarantee that the basic principles of democracy will be observed," Council of Europe Secretary General Marija Pejcinovic Buric wrote to Orban on March 24.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/30/823778208/new-law-gives-sweeping-powers-to-hungarys-orban-alarming-rights-advocates?t=1585593271940Second, subtler example: we are slowly sliding toward China.
Mass control smuggled as a required Health Prevention Feature.
"We could extend the tracking through apps that have been talked about a lot in the last few weeks, and we could ask for them in these mass situations." Purpose? Understand the risk of a person who must attend the event, in order to evaluate what to do. For example, on the ticket purchased, the words ?The organization reserves the right to deny entry to those who have had risky behavior regarding the virus or dangerous symptoms?.
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Feconomia%2Fconsumi%2F20_marzo_30%2Fbar-ascensori-metro-concerti-cinema-come-cambiera-nostra-vita-il-coronavirus-e7a980b0-727f-11ea-bc49-338bb9c7b205.shtmlFUCK YOU!
Seems like what Taiwan did
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689Id be very proud to be Taiwanese right now making less than half the income of Western countries like US, UK, Sweden etc at less than half the tax rates of those countries yet still having the infrastructure and legislature to not let people die in such a way. Maybe there is reason to sacrifice one thing for something bigger, if you have the capability of seeing the bigger picture that is.
Sad to see such a wonderful old thread filled with communist/socialist dogma.
Well.
Being quarantined sucks.
But do you know what sucks the most?
Fascism.
First example: Orban getting full powers to "fight Coronavirus".
Who is going to strip him from those powers if/when crisis is solved?
The nationalist government in Hungary passed a law Monday granting sweeping emergency powers that Prime Minister Viktor Orban says are necessary to fight the coronavirus pandemic.
Those powers include sidelining parliament and giving Orban the power to rule by decree indefinitely. The law would punish those who spread false information about the pandemic with up to five years in prison.
"Changing our lives is now unavoidable," Orban told lawmakers last week. "Everyone has to leave their comfort zone. This law gives the government the power and means to defend Hungary."
During Monday's vote, he said: "When this emergency ends, we will give back all powers, without exception."
But critics insist that Orban is using the pandemic to grab power. "An indefinite and uncontrolled state of emergency cannot guarantee that the basic principles of democracy will be observed," Council of Europe Secretary General Marija Pejcinovic Buric wrote to Orban on March 24.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/30/823778208/new-law-gives-sweeping-powers-to-hungarys-orban-alarming-rights-advocates?t=1585593271940Second, subtler example: we are slowly sliding toward China.
Mass control smuggled as a required Health Prevention Feature.
"We could extend the tracking through apps that have been talked about a lot in the last few weeks, and we could ask for them in these mass situations." Purpose? Understand the risk of a person who must attend the event, in order to evaluate what to do. For example, on the ticket purchased, the words ?The organization reserves the right to deny entry to those who have had risky behavior regarding the virus or dangerous symptoms?.
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Feconomia%2Fconsumi%2F20_marzo_30%2Fbar-ascensori-metro-concerti-cinema-come-cambiera-nostra-vita-il-coronavirus-e7a980b0-727f-11ea-bc49-338bb9c7b205.shtmlFUCK YOU!
Orban is a chapter of its own, a bad example for the european union, and not the first time. This is even what drives the member countries apart, away from anything
united.
It's always the same. Responsible people follow the rules, as a self explanatory community sense, but the few of us that are simple minded don't care. Because of these few, and their actions, everybody gets punished. The road to mass surveillance was paved with very small steps, like forbidding unregistered prepaid cards in the EU, one of the last changes to make global tracking possible, as well as intelligence exchange (which spy at each other AND claim to be partnering).
Just pervert. Orwell would turn nuts nowadays.
Use cash instead. Boycott cashless businesses.