wow ... you might have just solved a long standing problem ... I'll let you know.

I think bitcoin may drop to $566 before trending back up. Lyth0s March through July 2014 bitcoin prediction here.

Yeah... these straight lines of predictive pricing make very little sense to me.

A sane rich guy would put his money in whatever asset was resistant to seizure if seizure was his primary concern.

I think we have a very long time until that happens.  

I remember when I was first learning about bitcoin in March 2013.  People would say how this alt coin was better because it had faster block times, or that alt coin was better because it was proof-of-stake and used less mining energy.  Or this coin has demurrage to prevent hoarding or that coin uses ASIC-resistant hashing, or this coin is "Turing complete."  What I've come to believe is that this was mostly attempts by alt coin pumpers to appeal to newbies.  It seems to make sense that a "second generation" coin would be an improvement, but the more I learn, the more I believe that there are no fundamental problems in bitcoin that can be solved by alt coins and design changes.    

I've now spent months researching bitcoin at the technical level and I never cease to be amazed at Satoshi's genius.  He seemed to give great thought to every detail.  

My only criticism (and perhaps I'm missing something) is the way the ECDSA signatures are included in the transaction hash (which contributed to the transaction malleability problem).  But maybe there was a reason for this too that I've missed.  Nevertheless, we should have malleability eliminated over the coming years.  

Odd that we don't see you here all the times you guess wrong...

Of course.  But they do have that much volume, just as an exchange with higher fees or other handicaps may have less volume.

Obviously there are other useful measures, like book depth order, etc.  It would beinteresting to see them tabulated and compared.

Nevertheless, Huobi and OKCoin do seem to have greater liquidity and stability, a narrower spread, etc..  They do seem to lead the market most of the time.  So volume, independently of the reason, may be an important variable after all..

Fitting trend lines to historical prices may give heart-warming plots but is not useful for predictions, unless the trends reflect some underlying fundamental variable.

Exponential trends may be caused by "infection" in a new market: as more people invest in it, the more the item is mentioned in the news and spreads by word of mouth.  Or they maybe due to the company growing, hence opening more stores/factories/products/whatever, hence growing even more. The exponential growth stops when  that market is saturated, there is no more room for the company to grow, or something else happens (e.g. devastating news) that turns investors away. 

In that chart I see three separate exponential trends, but since they are shifted (P(t) = A*Q**(t-t0) + B, instead of just P(t) = A*Q**(t-t0)) they do not look straight in the log plot. They span

  (1) from ~Jun/2012 to ~Jul/2012 (~2 months)
 
  (2) from ~Jan/2013 to ~Mar/2013 (~3 months)

  (3) from ~Oct/2013 to ~Nov/2013 (~1.5 months)

I can only guess about the underlying causes of those exponential growth periods, but the last two seem to coincide with the opening of the Chinese markets: (2) by BTC-China in Hong Kong, (3) by Huobi and OKCoin in the mainland.  Perhaps (1) is the opening of the European market?

I would guess that in each case the trading population grew exponentially because it was driven by the "infection" process above.  Perhaps (2) stopped by market exhaustion?  Spurt (3), as we know, stopped because of the PBoC decrees.

So, the apparent  multi-year exponential growth in that graph is actually due to three successive market opening events, each much bigger than the other, spaced roughly 8 months apart.   Each gave a shifted exponential, instead of a pure exponential, because it was added to the strady-state of the previous ones. 

To continue that trend, it would be necessary to have another "market opening" event, even bigger than China's.  Itseems unlikely that a large country like China, Russia or India will remove its barriers.  Perhaps the "new market" will not be geogrphic but economic/social (say, Walmart accepts bitcoin, USA declares Bitcoin legal tender or whatever). Who knows.

This is an interesting experiment that economists should write theses about: two markets trading the same commodity with very different fee structures, that generate very different volumes per trader and very different trading patterns.


I believe that there is substantial human intervention in those markets.  For one thing, as I wrote many times before, Huobi's trade stops almost completely at night, and OKCoin's gets down to a steady background that is a small fraction of the daytime volume (and may be fake?).  Also one sees some resitance at round prices, which humans like but robots should not care about.  

Is that volume "weaker" in some sense, just because it is caused by the no-fee structure?  It seems an interesting question for the theses above...

Everyone keeps talking about this "trend line" (im guilty of it too), but what if our trendlines are actually wrong. They are all drawn after the fact, arbitrarily, using the latest data, which may be skewed high or low if we are currently at a very high or low point. What if the price doesnt actually follow that trendline, or more importantly what if our slope of the trendline is completely wrong? The correct trendline and the correct slope would be revealed only after a major price correction (like 2011) and then we'd follow the new trendline. For example, it could be like this (in purple):





We all think the blue/green is the real trendline but then it ends up actually being the purple one after a devastating correction (a REAL bear market) is revealed.

I'm not. The mtgox dip is a coincidence. The purple line is actually formed by connecting a bunch of contact points in 2011-2012.

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday March 22

Prediction valid for: Saturday 2014-03-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3447 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 566 USD.



The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right).  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. On the Huobi plot, the size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V_h/V_d, where V_h is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V_d is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from Huobi's ratio S.  The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted a posteriori to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.

The trend assuemd now is the straight line A + B*(d-d0) where d is the day of the month, d0 = 19, A = 3745.85, B = -99.49, fitted by weighted least squares to the points Mar/19--21.  (It seems that there was indeed a break in the trend between Mar/18 and Mar/19, as suspected yesterday.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which today was 6.09 CNY/USD.

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-03-21, 00:02 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-03-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19.5 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3630 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3547 CNY
Error: 83 CNY (~14 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 591 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 582 USD
Error: 9 USD

NOTE: By my count I still have 1 Note credit, so there is no Note today.

And from 40,000 to 4,000,000 just as easily? Yeah, it is exactly the part I am not "getting". Perhaps because I am a mathematician and vaguely remember from school that amount of money in the Universe is finite . But you are just trolling, right?

Are you sure?

Only bad news can come out of China?

Maybe you should try with more points touching your "lines" to have some basic trenlines.

So you can then watch the log trendline being broken while you PRESS PLAY and enjoy
Full interactive chart : https://www.tradingview.com/v/zmcYjA0i/

Yes.  Jorge thinks bitcoin is a dangerous ponzi and makes an argument there by first presenting a stawman argument in the form of an extreme false dichotomy.

Is this news?  He has seemed fairly transparent in his views of bitcoin.

I personally think he is wrong.

But who knows?

The fact is that bitcoins have no value in themselves : they are only worth what people believe they are worth .

Statements like the one quoted below get me everytime. Isn't this statement also true for every central bank fiat currency, IE the USD? The USD is only worth what we believe its worth, in that what we are willing to trade for the $1.


If anyone has better insight as to why or how this statement is true for bitcoin, but not for fiat. Please, please let me know. I'm awaiting enlightenment

the bank note is a promise

Money is finally hitting the exchanges. This could get nuts..

OMFG Coinbase cancelled my order where I bought at $560.

Phone size is increasing again.

30 Years Of Cell Phones

BTC-E finally above Bitstamp again. 

but its already happened its happening.

BTC-E  is above Bitstamp.

Today is the day!

interesting post, i'm hoping we test 540 to see if these figures are accurate.

If the price falls below $540, those that borrowed at $650 do not have enough collateral to sustain their positions.  Bitfinex will force them to sell.

As for $550 that's a technical point in the charts that we've bounced off a few times.  To break that support means longs are throwing in the towel.

It's called front running.
They can't sell to you right now, cause they are buying for themselves.
Then they sell to you later - at a higher price, of course.

Extremely, extremely, extremely run for the hills type of bearish news. First, there were a lot of buys because there was a lot of volume and volatility... there was action on both sides of the tape and with Coinbase as a middleman that leaves them dry (and anyways, that is historic, now... it's already priced in). Second, it means NOBODY will be buying from Coinbase all week -- a major purveyor of coins to the Average Joe. Why? Well, because the market is extremely volatile right now and you don't know where the hell the price will be (but assuming even in a worst case scenario there is a recovery by then that price would be HIGHER than it is today... you wouldn't do it).

It's God awful news. I don't know how the hell anybody could read it as positive news. I am certain I am being a bit hyperbolic, but yea... not good.

what will happen with bitcoin. sell now or buy for 1 year holding ?

now is the bottom?

i wish someone could explain to me this in english, I understand that a short is betting that it will go down, long the opposite, but how does it work in detail? can someone give me an example? like they were explaining it to a 5 year old? lol.

Why does it matter that there are 7300 shorts? because thats a shit ton?

I have been thinking about investing in ethereum.. what are peoples thoughts? I know that they just dumped a shitload of coins, but i think mastercoin is basically their competition.. What are some of your thoughts on ehtereum?

Bitcoin transfers takes way more than seconds. More when the network is busy because of big rise/fall/mr102 event that makes arbitrage profitable.


How can Bitcoin arbitragers take effect in tens of seconds?

A while ago they were at 477 a piece with Stamp a few cents below. This is more folklore than logic, but whenever that happens a crash seems to happen within an hour or two thereof.

I wish the similar pattern. I don't feel I have enough BTC for next bubble.

snipp

Times are changing - Bitcoin trending ahead of iPhone 6 what next.

I remembered I saw somewhere before that monitoring the increase in the number of bitcoin wallets is not a good metric to measure the rate of bitcoin adoption. But I cannot remember why that is so. Does anyone know?

Hash a message, post it here, have a few of us quote it, then when it becomes public knowledge you can show us all what a fantastic oracle you are.

Moon, I'm telling you all. Mooon!!!

Haha  

Amount is in bitcoin, yes. Total amount is the sum of all offers before that one (the book depth up to that price).  

I'm keeping the champagne corked for the moment...

I've managed to lower my average buy price a little over the past few days - and more fiat still yet to hit the exchange (hopefully will clear tonight) - but I must admit I've been much more gunshy with this crash. Much more so than ones in the past.

3 months ago I would have thought of this as a fantastic "last chance" buying opportunity, now I'm not so sure.

I've been holding all through this one and only bought a little, but I'm honestly not sure I will buy any more if we do go sub 350.

I will be watching the bounce from this one very closely... I've stocked up on Coffee, Coke..... and bourbon.

Cheers guys, whatever happens from here i hope i get my monies worth...

I honestly don't understand how you can say this...if it were true, then BTC would be at an ATH wouldn't it?

The truth as I see it, is that since the beginning of the year BTC has had a couple of dips and strong rebounds, however the price doesn't get higher on every rebound which has lead to a steady decline all year.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a troll looking to spew FUD around, I have some BTC myself, I just don't get it when people don't appear to acknowledge the decline.

market doesn't  shouldn't give a shit what price was last year. things changed.

So how does it feel after all that cheering for cheap coins that this time the price doesn't go back up?
Nobody is dying to get back in at lower levels. Nobody cares about cheap coins. Nobody wants to get burned after seeing Bitcoin crash month after month.
This is what you people have been cheering for. Happy now? Enjoying your cheap coins?

I don't understand the other wallets, they got to much confusing shit in them

its my understanding that  using this kind of wallet makes you a full node on the network. heavy duty shit...

I just work with my paperwallets and blockchain.info JS wallet.

no headaches.

I just use multibit and electrum, multibit for day to day, electrum for storage. I have paper backups of the seed.

Asked my wife what the encryption key is for her copy of the backup today - she has no idea.

Fuckin women. Lucky I have other backups, cuz hers is lost forever.

What ever happened to the <$1 of a few years ago?

i voted 360 but i'm pretty sure i wont be able to help myself and grab a few bits as soon as the funds arrive
my trading account its BTC : 0  CAD: -5 .... this is NOT GOOD!  

pretty sure this is the first time in a long time i'm waiting for a fiat transfer...

Highly likely. A lot of coins are moving around at or below these prices off exchange. Once this new accumulation has taken place then something like the ETF will be announced or EBAY will directly integrate btc or something and its off to the races. A mania can be whipped up in bitcoin in a few hours of concerted buying. If people think half a billion dollars of VC money is being thrown at bitcoin and noone has thought about the profit potential from actually taking large positions in bitcoin itself then you are in for a surprise.

Edit: though I wish they would hurry up about it..

Nobody is accumulating.

I remember reading once that Amazon's stock at one point had crashed to $7 before slowly rebounding to the triple digits it is today. If you believe in what we're doing here, patience. Patience. And if you have extra cash around- buy.

BTC was featured on Australia's flagship, fear pedalling, commercial network, gutter journalism driven,  current affairs show.... Typically dumbed down but still gracing the screens of millions of "mainstream" fuckwits across our wide brown land. The closing comment is a killer, and delivered in a deadpan but brilliant manner. It's only short so give it a watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZbsJ_fz-zg

Wait, hasn't this happened recently.

Price drops 5%. Everyone panics, shits their pants, it's  the final capitulation, it's over. Oh noes.

Price stabilizes, rises a couple percent, everyones like wow this is over. TO DA MOON.

Price drops another 5%. Everyone panics, shits their pants, it's  the final capitulation, it's over. Oh noes.

Price stabilizes, rises a couple percent, everyones like wow this is over. TO DA MOON.

Price drops another 5%. Everyone panics, shits their pants, it's  the final capitulation, it's over. Oh noes.

Price stabilizes, rises a couple percent, everyones like wow this is over. TO DA MOON.


but the price is still dropping overall.

So far nothing points to someone doing this to buy back lower.

Your joke makes little to NO sense.   

If you are a real whale you sound pretty desperate.
Let's buy some extra coins.

A viable proposal from another thread -

"I've wondered whether the Oct 15 deadline for US income tax might be playing a role. Someone who needed to sell bitcoin to pay 2013 income taxes may have taken the 6-month extension, thinking / hoping that the next bubble would have at least started by now. "

This would really make sense. The whale spent the last few days trying to get the best price possible, and now is left with setting up a wall that will get eaten hopefully in a day or two. Once eaten, it takes a few days to get the cash off of the exchange and off to the IRS.

Seems VERY bullish to me.

Ask wall just grew by 2.5k

Um, what?

If he wanted to induce a panic sell he wouldn't have set up this wall - just sell outright and let chaos reign. He needs some cash NOW and is trying to get what he can for his coins.

you wear a nice tinfoil hat.

I was thinking more like

14623

What's an 'epeen'? 

You boys and your penises...you now have electronic ones too. 
Sheesh, I feel old.

Watched until 17 min and he seemed level headed . Perhaps reference the time he becomes unruly for others

watching... but why is this wedge so critical, btc will be around this time next year guaranteed

Bullish as f*k after the Lawsky stream right now..

Better regulations (we'll see) should be implemented in Q1 2015, Also Q1 2015 getting "well funded" Bitcoin institutional exchanges in New York

Lawsky is anticipating maybe a couple more comment periods and changes before Q1 2015.

Software/Platform Developers Not regulated
Miners not regulated

The terms "money laundering" were used minimally. Described Bitcoin in a good light.

Open-source peer2peer cryptocurrency eagerly anticipates centralized regulation. Love the irony there. We should get MS or Apple to take over the core development too, because humans can't really do anything without some central authority.

The stream itself is unstable. It's a joke. It cuts out every 10-15 minutes.

QE4 is Coming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZBoP2aBbuw

The problem with Schiff is that he says that bitcoin has no utility and can therefore not work or be valuable in the long run. Muhahahaha muhahaha. What a moron

Not necessarily. Schiff could theoretically do a full Bitcoin integration if he wanted.
He could offer a multipurpose BTC deposit wallet (limited in certain ways by user request, if any). We could deposit Bitcoin and spend it on-the-fly as fiat by debit card (like he makes this work with gold), swap it for physical gold (or sell it for fiat), may be even use it as leverage in a brokerage account...
But he doesn't want to because he really doesn't like the idea (at least not now).

Ripple is integrating 100banks in 2015. No error. Bitcoin is the past.

Is Ripple that centralized thing owned by a company? Kinda like Western Union.

How to trade effectiently using bitcoin technical analysis

I am goingt to start a websitet for soopertdooper techitical analytsis to provet how to effectiently tradet bitcoint

What do you think about the USD ?
Why is it so strong ?
Is it because of the oil price going down ?

I wonder how many QE can US do before the crash.
Will we see QE 10, QE 100 ?
Can the madness go on forever ?


What will happen when West Europe goes bankrupt ?
The economy is global but as long as there is no real crash, everything goes well and USD get stronger.

Give it up. Nobody falls for the "cheap coins" thing anymore.

I see this argument a lot, and my question is this: what, exactly, would give consumers more of a reason to use bitcoin for legal transactions over existing payment methods? What will these new projects do differently that will make it more attractive for the consumer?

My opinion is that bitcoin's huge flaw in regards to regular consumer usage is that two of its major benefits both work in favor of the merchant.

Can't reverse transactions: benefits the merchant, makes it harder for them to get ripped off, but easier for the consumer to be ripped off, or to force them to accept what could be an inferior product with no guarantee of a refund.

Much cheaper on fees: benefits the merchant. Consumers don't pay fees on credit cards or cash, anyway, except interest fees for CC's when you don't cover what you bought, but that's fair because you're borrowing money from the issuing bank. In fact, the consumer will see a fee where they wouldn't with other methods, as they have to pay the fee when they send the bitcoins.

Unfortunately, it's not the merchant you need to cater to in business, it's the consumer. I think consumers are going to continue to prefer the safety and reversibility of transactions using other methods for the foreseeable future.

The only way it would work is if merchants provided a nice discount for using bitcoin, but not all merchants will want to do that, and not all consumers will want to go through the trouble of procuring bitcoins just to save 5% or something. Some of the merchants might have such small profit margins that they are simply unable to offer such a discount and still show a profit.

My opinion is the best hope is as a way to send large amounts of money quickly. I think banking on the consumer is very likely to be a lost cause, and I think a lot of the merchants accepting bitcoin are doing so as a publicity stunt and as a way to gain some business from the bitcoin crowd that they wouldn't be getting, otherwise. Not to mention the vast majority of them effectively instantly sell them.

It's not enough to be slightly better for people to want to go through the trouble of changing the status quo. It's got to be significantly better. I think for sending large amounts of money, this is true: it IS significantly easier, generally faster, and cheaper. The same can't necessarily be said for its use in the consumer/merchant relationship.

Guys I have a question, especially for traders of other stuff (stocks, commodities, indices etc).

Which other asset has similar volatility in the same timeframe as Bitcoin? And with good volume?

I want wild price fluctuations in about the timeframes that BTC has (not so fast as forex).

Any ideas?

Help appreciated.

I'm not sure why so many people are worried, you should be sold atm and waiting to catch the bottom of this drop.

link removed

I personally use the software and I think its great. I'm surprised more people to don't use software for their trades. But I understand your skepticism, but I have had a good experience and you can look around to see that there isn't a scam or theft report associated with the software.

I bought 7 bitcoins on June 9th, 2011 for $30.49, almost the very top of that bubble. I was in the RED about an hour after I bought them until February 23rd, 2013.

And I still have those bitcoins.

I do a bit of everything. But i'm using the 15 min to show when the ext big movement will come.   And it will come in in the next hour or so imho

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102146894 (Yantra Financial Tech)

BTC This is gonna be huge and bullish as fuck! BTC

OK.  So there are some strange things going on in the US.  Prices for gas are crazy low.  The DOW is high.  Gold is low.  We have an election tomorrow and it seems that preceding a US election many of these things are manipulated.  

I think that Wednesday things will start changing VERY fast.  Gold will get bumped up, and like usual, Bitcoin will follow.  Also, the lovely lower gas prices will inch back up.  The DOW?  I would be concerned that we will see that as well as the USD value go down in the next few weeks too.  

It is the trend line support back from April 2013:







You can think for yourself, if this is a good or a bad sign.

Decision will be made until 14th of November

Again, i don't use drugs. This was not my original account.

Legit: U don't use coffee, cola, tea, cigarettes, bear? U don't use poppy,

Too far: parsley, nutmeg, dark chocolate, pepper, chilli, ginger, vanilla, anise, cardamome, garlic, rosemary, sage?
All of them are drugs and have effects on your brain. If you don't believe me, use google or ask a intelligent doctor.
U should really use shrooms, because you will be way more patient after that. LOL

It has to be a chemical to be considered a drug.

Yes, but Draper has become a punch line since his bid and nobody is going to be dumb enough to high bid an uber ton of coins, again. You have these coins and the ones in Australia or New Zealand or wherever the f---, too. You basically are going to have roughly 50,000 more coins hitting the market at the same time that the Winklevi are trying, more or less, to dump their coins. This s--- is officially dead. I am opening a short. This s--- is beyond f---ing dead.

I would consider breathing air to be nourishment, and huffing oxygen to not be nourishment, so we are not in disagreement. No need to throw e-degrees at me and pull the old "lets not be off-topic but I want to get the last word in so here's some off-topic stuff but now you don't get a chance to respond haha" trick.

That's unfortunate. But, I heard that presentations by Ripple Labs members were well received. 

Sorry, I was trying to express my sympathy for the Winklevii.

beautiful. I can't wait to quote that asshat in 2016.

jesus fuckin christ, has anyone read the criminal complaint against SR2 yet? The guy rented the server using his personal gmail and didn't even use a VPN to log in

what the titty fucking christ, are they serious

That was some pure, 24 karat, comedy gold

thank you for catching that.

Man embeds computer chips in hands to store Bitcoin

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/11220577/Man-embeds-computer-chips-in-hands-to-store-Bitcoin.html

Your cooperation has been noted.



  ~Your Beneficent Reptilian Overlords.

And shorted at 381!!!

i bet he shorted at 360 and now short some more...

Close means you sell your whole position.
Claim means you sell only the margin difference.

lol $386  a few minutes later.

Yea, this s--- has gotten more than a little bit cartoonish at this point. Even the fiercest of hodlers wasn't saying... oh, we'll be at $450 today. Whoever just happened to have coins, good on you. But, this s--- is cartoonish.

Hey, I'm not saying you all won't sell or that you don't have a wild valuation in your head -- what I'm saying is that you didn't wake up this morning and think it would be this price on the market board. No f---ing way.

Remember remember,

5th of October!



Well, 6th on this picture.

Panic buy back in with a loss.

Did you not see the crazy bull---- that guy wrote. I mean, c'mon.

One of many valid interpretations. And you should know... because you just did the same thing.

Oh, I thought I was the one calling people names and talking s---. I ended up as a wash today as I was able to clean up the mess on volatility. I'm just sitting out, now. This thing looks like it is going to go on forever, but really this is kind of nuts. You've probably had a great day of trading so I won't take the fun out of your making money. But, I am wondering how anybody has any trust in this nonsense... we went from flat-lined to up over 100 on the week... this s--- is rigged. I'm happy you won the rigged bet, though.

And... try to have some class, man.

As usual, everyone focuses on the USD markets. Why? They dictate nothing. Watch CNY if you care to know what's happening in real time instead of derivatives. Unless of course, they decouple. But that's never happened to any significant degree.

Is it me or is it clearly the almost single wrong moment this year to sell BTC?  

Yeah whatever happened to the Ethereum guys? They raised all that cash and what, bought new office furniture and embezzled the rest? All the while their software was open source and Counterparty was like OH HAI.

Good day for XCP. Big gains today.

aahhhhh freefall !!!!!   

Fuck im not sure if i should go all in now or not.

Please help

My average buy in price is around 215$

I just want to have more btc before the bull run.

Did you buy high and sell low or why still here as a hero?

+1

To all the heroes and the hodlers.

Has the great shakeout of 2014 come to an end?

Weak hands go away, the strong hands are here to play.

western exchanges flinching, china trying to shake it off

I think we are headed to $175.

*shrugs* k man.

I'd say the past week has been pretty bad news, holidays are coming up, lots of BTC exchanged well bellow $100 and I don't think people will be gifting BTC hot n heavy for Christmas yet. 

where are you getting sub $100 BTC ?

Be interesting! Might give a good reason to pump after the holidays.

The fact that bank deposits will soon no longer be considered money but paper investments might make a big difference in the long term. I don't know about the short term though.

I fail to see how $370 is not a great price right now

Sure, we were at $360 2 days ago but we've had retracements before we got there and it really looks like we are entering a bull market right now.

Why is nobody buying

Common sense:

if stocks go down poeple are cashing out so there will be more money coming to the bitcoin market

if stocks go up poeple will feel richer and so there will be more money coming to the bitcoin market

 

but you don't have an avatar

in conclusion, there will be more money coming to the bitcoin market?

Pump: Shake the tree
Dump: Identify the weak hands and non-believers

Put on spin cycle for 2 years

When they have left, watch the pension funds create headlines about BTC reaching $100,000 per coin.

till they size the next coins ...

The sweet sound of ripple silence.....






Walsoraj


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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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Maybe because a considerable part of the bid side is fake. Also: breaking away 30 dollars north will make the price hit another ask wall again, one that is still in place at this point.
I really wonder how much mining companies are manipulating the bid side at the moment; there have been quite a few rumors that the larger ones out there will no longer be able to profit if the price sinks somewhere below 300 dollars.

Anyways, I'm still waiting for a panicking (Chinese) whale. Then we will see some real action. I wonder what wil happen if a sell wall of about 30k shows up to drive the price all the way down. How much liquidity would still be out there to catch the falling knife?

Time for CHEAP COIN CREW to come out of the wood work and scream buy 

No. Obviously not. It drives the dumpers nuts their coins are worth 350. They have to take it down to 350.

Guys, I'll let ya in on my secret..If coins are high, I buy them from cex, if coins are low, I sell them on cex..Lol there's some sort of time restraint going on over there at that place. They're always about 3 days off trending prices.

Oh look. Someone dumped to make sure we would break 350. Didn't see that coming.

I believe it's somewhat unusual for somebody with so much cheaply accumulated assets to inform the public about his intentions of dumping as much as necessary to keep the numbers artificially fixed. But go on, please, this could be highly amusing.

Nothing special

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=830009.0

I doubt it.  The FBI etc had hacked into his computers before the raid, and can follow trails on the blockchain.

Perhaps I am mis-remembering about the hacking.  But, from day 0, the police can buy stuff on the site, pay in bitcoins, and follow them on the blockchain.  That tracing could reveal if there were other wallets beyond those that that they seized (~30'000 on the server and ~150'000 on his laptop). 

Black Friday has little effect on the price of bitcoin... gotta wait until December 4th or soon thereafter.... but NO guarantees anything will happen after December 4; however, less likely any kind of rally will occur prior to December 4.

I buy directly into paper wallets and mine directly into a paper wallet. I haven't used an exchange since May.

I do keep a couple of dozen coins at an exchange in case of an emergency or exceptional trading opportunity and less than 2 coins on my Android device for shopping, but I'm aware of the risk involved.

I have encrypted offsite backups.

It's the date of the us marshalls auction of the 50k btc from silkroad.  I doubt that we will have a rally before that auction date, but never say never in bitcoinlandia.  Also, no guarantee of any meaningful price action after that date, but I tend to believe that several big players, including bidders, have incentives to keep prices down until after the auction bids are in.

Nothing is going to happen in the next few hours.

People are wondering if there will be a dump due to Black Friday and now it is too close to 4th to short.

My bet is that we won't see any moves until december 4, then a rise in december 4

Um... the Age of Aquarius?

Please do so, interesting post Jorge.


btw: 0.25BTC bot going crazy on Bitfinex, never noticed before: every 7 seconds 0.25 btc are bought.

Why people posting rocket pictures in such sideways market like the current one?

People talking about MACD and stuff for some time saying it is sign of recover, but no recover so far.

Also not everyone can understand the TA fundamentalities

MacD really stopped "working" for the upwards movements. Its still, however, works pretty good for spotting dumps. (2h indicator is my personal favorite)

Nothing "anonymous" happens online. Period.

I second this question.

The article merely explains how the paper explains how bitcoin nodes can be pushed from tor and forced to connect through clearnet by triggering DOS protection against the tor gateway IPs.

Doesn't imply tor is broken at all.

btw: there's still a simple way to hide your IP when making a transaction: Hide in the mass of people using the same electrum (or obelisk, or ...) server. Yes, you have to trust the server operator to not store your IP or to not give it out. If you can't bring yourself to do that, just run your own server and get other to use it.

Whoever is operating the bot has accumulated 1750 coins already apparently and according to a redditor is throttling the purchases to prevent it moving the price upwards. We are still four days away from the auction. What does someone know?

Now there is a 0.501 bot buying about every 20 seconds on Bitstamp. I'm assuming the purchaser swapped exchanges due to the price difference.

Edit: Nevermind, it was just turned off

http://buttercoinmarketupdate.posthaven.com/bitcoin-difficulty-suggests-rally

good analysis

In addition to directly less selling pressure, there are circular effects which are bullish on price.  For example, miners are more likely to sell when they think other miners are also selling so as to get in front of each other and not to get stuck with a worse price and possibly become unable to continue with operations due to constant operating expenses.  Miners are more likely to hoard when they believe other miners are hoarding.  In other words, all else equal (e.g. consumer adoption growth), a steeper difficulty climb implies more selling by miners and a flatter difficulty climb implies more hoarding by miners.

poor rptilian

Really?

I've been enjoying the up and downs, and taking advantage when I can, but I've not seen much development taking place. I was getting the impression that it's a dead coin...

Thanks, I'm really not a fan of the online wallets thing tho. Especially when it's just some website that I have to trust not to just disappear someday...

I've been hearing about the impending gui wallet implementation since I first heard of Monero, it just seems fishy to me that something relatively simple like a gui skin for the core wallet client would take so long.

Still have my fingers crossed for the success of this project, but I'm very skeptical at this point.

prediction
debt ceiling to be raised world economy collapses march 2015

I drew some pretty lines today.....lets keep tomorrows price at an average of $385 or greater.



http://i.imgur.com/eliW0ms.png

Means there is a chance of the coins going to be dumped on exchanges at sight?

Or just manipulation to scare people and lower the price?

Not a chance. TERA was a master trader and I wish she was still here. I learned a lot from her.

Anybody still buying regularly?

I'm a HODLER but at a bit of a cross roads right now regarding 'do I stick with what I have' or 'keep buying'.
No positive news at all for a while now but then again no real negative news.

It's all gone a bit boring.....

If you say anything but "up up up" and "to da moon" guaranteed you're going to offend some people on here.

not true.

the best strategy to make money/coins/whateva in 2014. was shorting bitcoin every time it bounces.

bears are happy.

Pretty sure it is that.


You mean like that JayJuanGee guy? Quite the bear he is.

Anyway, can you blame people for being disillusioned when all the "respected" and "reputable" permabulls on here were screaming "OMFG BUY BUY BUY WE WILL NEVER SEE BELOW 1000 AGAIN!" You know, the same guys who cry about bears when the price goes down?


People that have been around for a while have been fortunate to see a huge bubble, but that won't stop people like you from telling new people to buy as if $100k per BTC were a foregone conclusion. Seriously, if you do have that crystal ball that assures you of that, you can probably use it to make money in a whole lot of other ways, too.

1. It is.
2. He doesn't?
3. Not literally; use your brain.
4. Ok buddy.
5. More pointless condescension.

It's been over an hour, what happened?

I'm sorry but....save 8%ish on every transaction? (I think that's what NY sales tax is)

Wtf?? And we are dropping?

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2oqb7z/new_york_state_lays_down_the_law_for_bitcoin/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Because some heavy hitter has perfected a brilliant four punch combination. It has nothing to do with fundamentals at all. It's

You can't store gold backed fiat electronically.

It's backed by the ability to prove a debt can be ultimately paid in gold as assumed by the credit agencies.  

Currency is backed by assets, at least my currency is (GBP).  our QE was backed by the purchase of assets.  When called to pay debts they are settled in gold.

The fiat that is being issued by QE is being used to buy the worst of the worst junk from the banks that hold them to give them the appearance of financial health. All the dog-shit assets are being moved to the balance sheet of the CB's, and yes, it balances because they do not mark them to market and instead assume they will hold to maturity and be repaid or else sell at a later date to contract their balance sheets. The chances of either of those events happening are slim to none. Nobody is calling anyone on it because they are all playing the same game. The FED is now the biggest hedge fund in the world, leveraged about 80:1 (Lehmans was 40:1 when it went bust), and the assets that are leveraged are probably worthless (the Japanese may take this title soon if they have not done so already)

Nobody calls anybody on it because they are all playing the same game and if one domino falls, all the rest will follow. The emperor has no clothes and everyone in the know knows it. It's now just a confidence trick on Joe Public, who, like you (no offense) does not understand the dynamics at play.
The Euro is now largely backed by Greek, Spanish, Portuguese etc govt debt ... good luck with that. Bail out after bailout, they issue Euros and buy the distressed debt, kicking the can further and further down the road under the false assumption that it can go on forever. It won't. But then the music stops its going to get very ugly very fast. How long that will take, nobody knows. All it takes is one systemic shock. The alternative of course is a false flag event, or just plain war.

Gold has virtually nothing to do with it, except that CB's hold an increasingly small portion of their reserves in gold, and there is the an alternative to complete collapse - a complete revaluation of gold such that its value is so high that the balance sheets look respectable again. Not impossible, but unfortunately most western CB's have been flogging their gold to India and China for the last decade. Most of this takes the form of leasing, whereby ownership is transferred notionally and they never hand over the gold, the assumption being that they will if asked. That  assumption may be proven to be very wrong, and it is largely suspected that the same gold has been leased many times over. There are more 'calls' on gold than gold in the vaults. Again, nobody wants to play that card yet, because one failure to deliver gold will lead to a collapse of the pyramid. Why do you think Germany has been so quiet about the non-repatriation of the small portion of their gold they requested from the US? The US has said it will take 5 years to transfer what could be loaded onto a few cargo planes and transferred with ease. But they have not and will not. They have given them a pitiful amount so far.
So the game continues ... for now.

But the players are starting to hear the BTC mantra .. if you don't hold you PK's, you don't have Bitcoin, you have paper Bitcoin. Same goes for gold as confidence wanes and nerves get strained. So countries are becoming increasingly nervous about the gold that is declared on their balance sheets but held in vaults in other countries. As are some of their citizens. It's going to get messy. It's not if, it's when. This is already unfolding in several European countries.

And for what its worth the UK sold most of its Gold years ago (thanks Gordon, nice one  )  to bail out banks that were caught short and could not deliver on futures contracts. Part of the agreement was that they removed themselves from the gold market afterwards. I believe Rothschilds was one of the banks involved.

There is a lot of very interesting stuff out there and it all fits together far too neatly to be just dismissed as a 'conspiracy theory', though naturally that will be the first reaction of the sheeple.

Holding fiat does not give you any call on your CB's reserves whatsoever. In a free market currencies would adjust to reflect the quality of reserves and their ability to borrow in the bond markets but thats as far as it goes. And we don't have free markets ...

EDIT: So I guess you are right in a sense that people are starting to realise that about the only tangible asset on Gov's balance sheets is the negligible amount of gold left since moving form the gold standard. But to say that this is what determines a countries credit-worthiness is stretching it waaaay too far. It probably ought to, but right now it does not. See the problem ??

Sorry for dopplepost .. don't know what happened there !!

We do not know that, really.

"Growing adoption" would be more people buying bitcoin for the purpose of paying for goods and services.  As has been pointed out many times, there is no reliable data on that parameter.

--snip--

Lol, "get up to 20%."  I actually checked it out, feel Rickrolled now
Technically, you can get up to 100% off.  Your discount depends on how much of a premium people are willing to pay for your BTC over market.

--Coindesk

Much hilarity ensues.

I'm sure it does, my son, because Circle charges more than 20% when you buy BTC with credit cards there  

Ha from my experience everytime someone said the next x y is critical, nothing ever happened  but maybe you are right of course and market will finally move somewhere, it has been kind of boring last days

The fact that we are no longer seeing miners dump, even though they could book those losses at the end of the year for tax purposes, is very telling. It means that : (a) those entities are non-diversified so they don't have any positive income to claim a loss against (remember, capital income taxes are what... about 15 to 20% depending in some countries); and (b) they are refusing to sell at this price out of either stubbornness or an expectation of higher prices.

So, I'm calling it early... put on your crazy hats... bull market until February... tops out in the low to mid 500s. We all know that this is a dying fad, but, in the meantime, believe in crazy. See you all at $450 this week.

this really doesn't look good.

I think we will see a high-mid 200$ range very soon, after that, it all depends on our regular consumer getting into Bitcoin. It's funny to hear my mom suddenly talk about it, I think that's a good thing.

what if they are waiting for the sell wall to build and buy up quick, could it turn MACD positive

bitcoin will go to the mooon soon

bought another 20btc

yep nice steady healthy growth for 24 hours

here is the all time chart and recent high

Can someone please call me a moron.
I just dumped all my loose BTC at the exchange.

Dammit. I hate this.

Shroomy? You again?

Read carefuly, he actually said that India will completely replace the rupee for Dogecoin in 2015.  He did not want to be bested by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, who, as reported previously here, said that he will stand up to Putin and demand the immediate replacement of the ruble by Litecoin.

And how is that relevant to Bitcoin value?

I can appreciate hyperbole, but until JS has anything interesting to say he is still ignored.

This looks nice:  http://test.casheer.net/mission/

I sure didn't see sub 300 coming. >.<

No sarcasm. Whelp time for another buy order

I don't know how you people make money with crashing prices. I have to learn how to trade this year

The biggest obstacle is time. Still too many people think altcoins may be an answer, so they are holding off on Bitcoin. Ether pumpers got kicked in the teeth by IBM. CPY pumpers got slapped by Overstock. Merge mined parasites don't prove their mettle  Folks gotta realize that Bitcoin is the PoW the heavyweight champ that paid its dues.

The pattern repeats, but it gets flatter each time. It is my hope that by exposing it, there will be so much demand for coins to front-run the pattern that we can stop it, but eventually it has to stop anyway as diminishing returns will have to yield to fundamentals at some point.

We can beat them by joining them and then defecting from the cartel at the most opportune time. This will be on the retest of whatever the new low will be in the low low $200s (AFTER the next cycle).  An extremely rich person can do it now on the retest of $255 support, but I don't have anywhere close to enough clout to even attempt it myself.

This thread is weird beyond weird sometimes.

I have a job. I was at work. Besides, I don't believe you. You said you leveraged up 30:1 and that's not really an option. But if it is true, I'm glad I could be of service. Consider it a gift. gratis.

What, so everyone suddenly realized at the same time that it is under-priced??  Brilliant deduction there..

cant believe that there are still fools around willing to pay more than 200 usd for a bitcoin.

Any uptrend you can see in bitcoin's price history looks exactly like a textbook penny stock pump&dump.
The 2011 bubble, the two 2013 ones.

They are bubbles, not healthy sustainable uptrends.

Bitcoin looks like a mega bubble that bursted that can be divided by 3 smaller bubbles/pump&dumps, the second one ended up pumping way higher than the first one, the third one ended up pumping way higher than the second one but now retraced completely returning to the second bubble levels.


Doesn't look like something anybody in his right mind should put money in, currently. And that's ignoring the fundamentals, which are pretty bad by themselves...

Only bitcoiners consider bubble/P&D cycles as "natural behaviour and growth of a promising investment".

I didn't follow the discussion leading to this, so maybe I'm out of line, but strangely it seems I'm siding with Stolfi on this. If we're talking about what it means to accept BTC I think we have to ask why we want companies to do that. In the end we'd like to see a purely Bitcoin-based economy with the companies using the BTC they're being payed with for their products to cover their cost (machinery, marketing, salaries, consulting, raw materials, insurance, taxes,...). In case of a company 'accepting' BTC through bitpay and converting 100% to fiat, this is clearly not the case.

So no: Dell is not accepting bitcoin. They're using it as a marketing tool.

So why aren't the Chinese exchanges dumping like crazy?
3 billion yuan = 2.17 million btc at the current price. 3000 investors means the average investor had 725 btc each