I am pretty sure the "bubble" of the last week just popped . . .

That's the one :p

While it will be a little while before we know exactly how it ended, we are beginning to see hints at least.   There was a media storm that increased exposure to unfathomable levels.  The bids are way above what they were before the "crash".   I've never seen so many people on twitter asking about bitcoin.   Google searches are sky high.   Bottom line is it will "bubble" again, but people should be a little more experienced and won't be as quick to panic.   Each "bubble" will land a little softer, and eventually, we should see some of the volatility diminish.  Probably years from now . . .

I don't think it was someone wanting to push the price down.   If they were, they would not have limited at $125, they would have just continued to sell down instead of leaving the last few hundred coins sit as a mini wall.   I think someone wanted minimum $125 for their 5k coins, and saw an opportunity.

Actually, a 5k wall would have possibly a more destabilizing effect . . .  As you can see a few minutes later, there was virtually no effect.

I know the dump that Rampion is talking about.   I did not see it when it happened, but on the Clarkmoody charts later.   It was about 7:00 pm pacific time on the 11th, way after the start of the crash.   The really weird thing is that when I was looking at it originally, I saw volume of 65k but I checked it again later on, and it no longer showed 65k, I don't know what happened there.   On the 15 minute scale on Clarkmoody, it shows a volume of 21k and it took the price from $118 to $65.   It was an extremely significant sell, but was in no way the cause of the crash.   It came after Gox was shut down and reopened.   Did it contribute to how far down we went?   Of course, so does every sell, but there was no additional panic caused.   I would even say that the reason for so much slippage was because people had already pulled their bids because of the crash that was already in place.

All I have to say is that I picked the wrong day to leave my Yubikey at home . . . 

I am a bit confused by the latest sell off.   Everyone can't make money on these swings, and I would bet that most lose it.   So why do they keep trying?   It's not like there has been any kind of bad news to induce selling, and we all know how much people will be willing to sell for on Monday or Tuesday.   I can't figure out why so many want to sell at the current low.

Edit - I meant buy not sell.   I am up too late  

I bought BFL ASICs when BTC was $6, figuring that it may double through the halving, and then with great luck be maybe $20 or $25 by now.   I may be slightly upset if I had paid BTC, but at the time there was less risk in mining then holding, IMO.   For me, above $100 is pure heaven, if I in fact ever receive my miners . . .

Deficiency exists only in those who ridicule others.

This is just a multiple day triangle forming.   Notice that while each high is lower, each low is also higher.   Where we break to from there is anyone's guess.   News is quite bullish, while sentiment is a bit bearish right now.   Everyone is waiting to see where it goes, and thereby causing the lack of movement.   Hopefully this turns out to be a long period of consolidation.

Support is not just in bid form.   It is also psychological.  There comes a point where people no longer want to dump under a certain price, and also where people will market buy.   We dipped a dollar below $135, but for today at least, there indeed seems to be support at about $135.

So when someone sells a thousand, they are just cashing out, with no attempt at manipulation, but if someone buys a few hundred, that is certainly manipulation . . .

That's why it keeps disappearing . . .   If he wanted to dump above 130, he would let the price go up.   It's gone for now, BTW.

Wow.   Unreal people can be manipulated so easily.   5k ask wall and 1k bid wall put up at same time.   1k was sold into and then the 5k was pulled.   Does not seem to be a coincidence . . .

Step 1:   Initiate selloff by dumping thousands.
Step 2:   Wait for panic sellers to drive price down.
Step 3:   Insert ask wall to keep price low and help with panic.
Step 4:   Slowly buy back coins that were originally dumped at a discount.
Step 5:   Once bought back, remove wall, and allow price to rise.
Optional: Insert bid wall to help push price up.

There is slight risk that wall could be bought, but it must be low enough risk, as they keep doing it.

You are so much more awesome in bull mode 

There will be no more selling pressure than there is now, the same 3600 BTC will be produced each day, and currently more than half of the network is probably ASICs that were purchased at a higher price than BFL's.   Of course, there will be no bull run either . . .   I will be in no hurry to sell my mined coins, unless the price shows itself to be in a continuous downtrend, in which case every miner will be selling, regardless of technology.   The only comparison to 2011 is psychological, Bitcoin is in a very different place than it was in 2011.   I would say that any downtrend will not last as long.   The one risk we have, is the stupid manipulators, something is going to have to be done about them, what, is anyone's guess.

Maybe 10% or 20% increase as difficulty adjusts.   An extra 360 coins a day will do nothing.   Also, the network already quadrupled, leading to the same sort of oversupply.   The next quadrupling will actually take longer than the last one, and as slow as BFL is shipping, difficulty will be able to adjust just fine to limit supply.

I hope you are right 

The weight won't be lifted off of my shoulders until I have my units hashing, and the price is of bitcoin is above 0.   I have a June order, and have a pretty decent chance of doing alright, unlike people ordering now, thinking they are going to make out like bandits only to find the network will be 2 Ph/s + by time they get their devices, they will not be happy . . .

It's nice to see that the wall at 104 is not having much success at pushing the price down.   Wonder how long until he tires and dumps again to get the action started.   Wish someone had the cash to eat his wall.   If the walls were to be devoured a few times, it might make them think twice, and would go a long way toward stabilizing things.

You may be right, as his wall is being nibbled on quite a bit.   I find it surprising that selling pressure is so low that hardly any asks are being placed beneath it.   He has to know if he backed the wall to 105, he would end up with $5k more . . .   Strange not to at this point unless he is trying to manipulate, very odd.

Of course you can eat a manipulation wall, if you do it in one big bite.    This wall was acting different however, and I am pretty sure he just wanted to sell, though he could have made several more thousand if he wanted, not smart.

Near all time high??   Since you joined in March, yes, it is at it's highest.   Bitcoin has been around longer than the 15 day chart however, and we are nowhere near the all time high for asks.

I am guessing that we won't, not unless the price bounces quite a bit higher.   We had some major buys, some of them fishy, it may be Mr. M  has been buying his coins back.   Someone bought that latest 3.5k  up to 112, and the only one I think would be confident enough in the current market to do that, is the one in control.   He will want to see the price rise now for a while.

Around 6k

This very well may not be wise at the moment.   I went half out.   But I am still keeping half, it is as you say, feels better to have some coins in hand.   I am prepared to see them lose half their value again though . . .

I went out just in time too.   Bitcoin reacts strongly to bad news.   The MtGox login glitch could not have happened at a better time, as I was able to get out before the storm.   I am so frustrated that the current Bitcoin market has made me a trader, I much prefer to hold . . .

Basically this is just early warning that the same fork that happened in March will happen again if you don't update.   Only difference this time is that the old version fork will be the one abandoned, hence you will be left behind if you don't upgrade or do the work around.   It is just a block size limit increase.  This is not an update of the 1MB hard limit, it is a lifting of the soft limit, which I think is currently 250KB.

They will not lose their coins, or be unable to ever spend them.   They will have to apply the work around or upgrade, then do a -rescan before they will be able to spend them.   My guess is that anyone who is savvy enough to be running a local wallet will be able to get this sorted out.   If not, we get some additional deflation  

edit-They may actually have to re-download the blockchain, I am not sure.

This is what we need, more benevolent manipulators . . .  

The market is driven much more by sentiment right now.   We were already in decline before the Silk Road or MtGox/Coinlab news.   I think right now, people are feeling somewhat confident since we have gone so long without any downward manipulation.   Not to mention the wall at 90 which has shown no sign of running away in the short term.

Government regulation in and of itself is not always bad, and in my opinion is long term bullish as they are basically recognizing it as legitimate, rather than working to kill it.   It can be perceived as bad however, which I think could contribute to a down trend. I am about 35% fiat right now, with no plans to adjust that any time soon, may catch a profitable oscillation here or there though.  China news is long term bullish, but short term I think it could contribute to a down trend, people will be expecting the price to spike soon, and when it doesn't . . .   There will not be any fresh money showing up on the order book because banks are suddenly open.   When money comes in, people are going to be quite fine with waiting for a good opportunity to buy, rather than rushing in because it will be more expensive later.   I think the days of Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday spikes are over for the time being, or if they come will be pumps with corresponding dumps.   People will start to learn the market, and it will stabilize to an extent.   There will always be an abundance of newbs for the manipulators to take advantage of though, a stable bitcoin will probably still be very volatile.

As for when a good time to buy is, that depends on what you want BTC for.   Generally it is always a good time to buy bitcoin if you are going long, or buying it to spend, just be smart and don't buy into a rally.   If you are speculating, well, no one can tell you when a good time to buy is really.   You have to watch and learn the market, even then you will probably get it wrong, most of us do at some point.

It is stabilizing, right where we are.  

You might say that BTC has gained the faith at any lower prices.   It's called consolidation.   If bid sum was falling during consolidation, then we would see a breakout downwards.   It has however been rising.   More likely to breakout upwards, only there is no way to know.   I am still not all in . . .

There is way too much support growing to ever see the prices you seem to want.   The only reason to want the price down is so that you can buy in, and then what?  Celebrate when it goes up 150%?   It makes more sense that you buy in now, and gain 150% from here, and it would be better for BTC if you buy in now and "only" realize a 50% increase.

If BTC goes down as much as you want, it will do anything but stabilize.

"The bid sum just touched the ask sum"   This doesn't really mean anything.   Well, at the current scale of the chart, it does mean that ask sum is shrinking or bid sum is rising, or both.   The Y-axis of bid sum and ask sum are scaled to their respective highs and lows, with no correlation to each other.

I do agree that we should be rising a bit based on a number of factors.  

Volume is peaks at times when volatility is at it's highest.   What day of the week it falls on is arbitrary.

This is awesome IMHO.   Rather than market buys, which contribute to volatility, new money is placing bids.   Rather than just wanting to hold long term, or dump and lose potential profits through slippage, holders are placing asks.   I hope this trend continues, having a very liquid market with limited slippage is the best thing we could hope for.  

Manipulated stability would be accompanied by large walls and market orders.  This appears more to be actual market balance, for the minute.   I would prefer to think that someone big was doing market making though, at least then we could be more confident that it would keep going like this.

The USD volume today is higher than all but 2 days before the April craziness, and there are still hours left.   Even yesterday's anemic volume was greater than almost anything seen before January . . .

It's getting old listening to people complain about volume.   Volume is awesome!  

The speculator driven volume of April got us into trouble, we don't even want that.

And probably live longer to enjoy your wealth . . .   

This corresponds nicely with the 27,000 coins that were market sold.   It will take some time for the bid sum to build again, unless people who sold decide that the storm is over.  

Personally, I have decided that until we know why the DHS is involved, it is safer to be fiat.   The risk being buying back in higher and losing a couple percent (which I hope happens).  On the other hand, it is a curious situation, and if DHS has decided that bitcoins have been used to fund terrorism, we could see a steep decline in the value of bitcoin as they work their "magic".   So, maybe lose a few percent, or maybe lose 50%+ . . .

I am probably the only person who is mostly fiat who wants to see the price go up

I agree.   And if they were going after bitcoin at large, they would have shut down transfers to ALL exchanges simultaneously.   This is still a strange situation.

Wrong time of day for that . . .  

Seems more like someone getting frustrated because potentially serious bad news didn't work, then a ddos didn't work, now they are just like, "screw it, let's go back to walls"

I wonder where their bids are that they are pushing down to.

As Risto says in his post May 17, "It will probably be no more than 100,000 euros, since it does not seem that any intentional theft of bitcoins occurred."   So, 100k Euro is a bit less than $12,000k, probably had nothing to do with the selloff from the Dwolla news.   Also, he says that the whole getting arrested and put in psychiatric detention is normal for him, so it does not seem he "cracked" from anything.

Of course, who knows about anything he says . . .   It all seems too fanciful to be true, but at the same time it seems too strange to make up.   

The consensus seems to be that the post on reddit was just to try and troll the price down.   It was made by a user with 1 post, and there is no further confirmation.   I would say wait to hear it from a reputable source before we worry too much anyway.   Not that we should worry, because if there is one thing that makes people want something all the more, it is to tell them that they aren't allowed . . .

This is the 15 day chart.   Check out the all time chart.   Bid/ask sum was higher for a lot of April, but then price was a lot higher too.   Still is nice to see it rising further and further above the current price.

The chart is found at http://www.blockchained.com/

This is big, and may well be as close an "endorsement" from the government we have seen so far.

Our market is controlled completely by the whales.   Left to it's own devices, we see slow increases.   We move when the whales sell or buy, and lately, they have sold more than bought.  This whole downturn was initiated by a single sell of 25k.  BTC volume is on par with a year ago, when we were seeing slow steady increases.   Dollar volume is obviously much higher.   We could see sub $100 for quite a while, but it will be because the whales keep increasing supply.   Everyone is being played by the whales, it is comical to watch.   They know their time is limited, so they just keep pushing down the price to acquire more while they can.

Never underestimate greed.   The problem is the lack of intelligence that seems to be going with it . . .

Do you disagree then that the market makes its dramatic moves based on large buys/sells?   (Sans news)  And of course it is manipulated up too.

I imagine with each sell-off, there are more and more coins not re-bought as people become more and more bearish.   This would naturally reduce the number of coins held by day traders, limiting future sell-offs somewhat.   Of course there are miners, and long term holders, the latter of which probably are not going to sell without some major bad news.   The miners have always been there, and in the current market, I would bet they are unloading in a more controlled way than just dumping, to avoid slippage.

I would agree with your medium sized fish theory, the big fish sold and bought back in, and he would not make any money selling again now, unless there are several big fish . . .

This is adamstgBit's thread, the previous Wall Observer was his also.   That alone gives him more leeway.   Those of us who have been around for years are very used to him, and there is a vast difference between him and little pricks like jaroslaw, who has a very well deserved highlighted ignore.   It is all the self righteous noobs that get on my nerves . . .

If by marvelous you mean blocks that take 100 times longer to complete until difficulty adjusts back to GPU level . . .   Which would take maybe 6 years, if we hit 2 Ph/s in in the next few months, which I bet we do.   Also, in a competition, how would GPU's ever out compete ASICS?

So according to your calculations, Gox didn't exist before March of this year (when we crossed through $65).   Imagine how much they must have been running in the red when bitcoin was $5 or$12!

Battle of the walls in progress.

1k bid on $88.10
1k bid on $89.10

2k ask spread between $91.49 and $91.60

But who will win? 

I figure it is a (super) early adopter who missed out selling on the last run up in April, and made the decision that he was going to liquidate 10k when we hit ATH again, as to not miss out a second time . . .   Probably figures he is adding some stability to the market in the process?  I am sure whoever it is has a bunch more.

For those who have been asking about Gox BTC withdrawals . . .

I pulled 2BTC out of Gox last night just as a test.   They just showed up on the block chain, about a 24 hour delay.

Lets be real here.   Just like every US $100 bill has cocaine on it, so will every bitcoin wallet be tainted with something.   Any "red list" would probably be limited to a very few generations of transactions, as all transactions would be denied in a scenario where all coins are checked.   For one thing, it would be impossible to get businesses to sign on for such a thing, as they would have to deny all bitcoin transactions . . .    Also, government has said that they do not want to stifle innovation in the realm of digital currencies, which such a thing of course would.   This is just more bear food, it is good to have a supply that at least keeps them alive!

Indeed this is sometimes the case.   If we look at something like prohibition, which is probably a more apt comparison than education, government learned that outlawing some things is counter productive.   Regulation was far more profitable for them.   Time will tell.

Everyone is waiting for the weekend dip to buy.   Many of the day traders have sold in anticipation thereof.   With most buyers waiting, and few sellers who have not yet sold, we are stable on a Thursday.   I think this may look a bit like the weekend after the $233-$175 correction.   But this is bitcoin . . .  Some half-hearted selling going on now.

As arbitrage is not simple or quick, each exchange sets up it's own balance of supply/demand, to an extent.

That could not possibly be because everyone is waiting for the weekend dip . . .

You need to switch to log scale.   Not that this run up is not impressive, but it pales in comparison to the last two major ones, so far.  At this point, run up is just a bit ahead of the December 2011/January 2012 run up.  

And yes, bitcoin is something special . . .

There was a larger spike in bitcoin volume on October 25.   We were at about $190 at the time.   So, a more logical(in that there is "precedent"), but equally unrealistic interpretation is that a spike volume precedes a spike in value.   See you can make anything mean anything if you don't think about it for very long.   Don't worry about a large number of coins moving.   The only case in which it would make sense to market sell that many coins is if bitcoin was completely dead, and you could quickly get something before all the bids were pulled.   Large holders are not stupid.   Even in a bear market, they would feed them slowly to maximize profit.

tl;dr - nothing to see here, move along

There is only one way to interpret "I'm dumping 75% of my coins"

"I have already dumped my coins, and I want you to sell them back to me cheaper . . ." 


One of the major problems with bitcoin trading, is that many of these day traders loose bitcoins, but at the end of the day, or week, the fewer bitcoins are still worth more useless dollars.   There is no real penalty for being a dumb trader, and so it continues.

Let's not single out the buy/hold crowd as the only greedy ones.   To be sure, the goal of EVERY trader is to increase his wealth.   That being said, you are exactly right, we need sellers.   Most of the current crop of holders will be sellers at whatever point they feel they have gained sufficient wealth to buy some of the things they need, say a car or house.

Am I the only one with goosebumps . . . ?

Seriously, enough with the fake BTCChina thing, I think we have beat this to death already.   Let's just agree that you are right, and not one of 1 billion Chinese has any interest in bitcoin at all.  

Since you are right SO often, I am quoting for posterity.

Okay, I will give you that.    Nov. 18 is one for the history books for sure, though we "only" gained just over 50%.

Why bitcoin?   Answer this, what is the max WoW gold that will ever be farmed?

I suppose they didn't delete this page either . . .   sigh

http://en.support.wordpress.com/payment/

Wordpress did NOT stop accepting bitcoin.   Just FUD.

Check out this from the wordpress forum.

http://en.forums.wordpress.com/topic/uprgrade-payment#post-1523765

Bitcoin is not accepted for domains.   I am sure it is something legal.   They do still accept it for certain upgrades.

So, yesterday we had a bullish presentation that spiked the price, which then corrected hard.

Today, we have a slightly bearish presentation that will cause the price to dip, and then rebound . . .

Well, there may certainly be some noobs handing profits away to even newer noobs . . .

Both of you should sell everything now, and wait for $150 to buy back.   That will maximize your profit  

If BTCChina volume is fake, and run by westerners, why is volume so low right now, while China is asleep?   If one were using it to move other markets, now would be the perfect time . . .

I swear, some people can not do math . . .

Who cares about a 10k sell?   One less person with 10k to sell in the future . . .   And that 1.5k wall, you think that is anything?   Did you see the previous 1.5k get munched just after the big sell?   Took less than 5 minutes.   I suppose Stamp having 3 mil more in bids than a few days ago is new money running away . . .   Have you seen how many people in just this forum are screaming about not being able to get money in fast enough?   If I had the coins, I would manipulate this as much as I could too, this is a last stop at these price levels.

There is real volume in China.   The daily trade volume is higher than there would be if there were fees, no doubt.   It is impossible to know how much effect it has overall.   The "fake volume" crowd is just grasping at straws to try and talk the price down.   I hope they keep doing it, we need people to temper the market with FUD or exuberance would run away even worse.  

tl;dr   It would be really stupid to assume there is no demand for BTC in China . . .

Some have said as much.   They have been saying it trying to "scare" the price down for some time.   They have also said that they think it is mostly westerners who trade there, which is crazy talk.   Not that some don't . . .

So, while the manipulators were hard at work at Gox, why did they not paint red tape in China, creating the illusion of incredible selling pressure?   That would have helped drop the price quite a bit more.   It could be done, but how much is it actually done?   All we can do is speculate, and speculation by very nature is wrong at least as much as it is right.

Not sure where you are looking, but all exchanges (except BTC-e) are currently above $500.   Nowhere near danger of $400 falling right now.

It makes perfect sense.   Coins that could have been acquired for much less, who knows maybe even pre 2013 prices, are sold for a handsome profit.   Those coins now have a burden at the new purchase price.   They are no longer $10 coins, they are $500 coins.   

Yes, and the amount of interest drummed up in the last few days has assured that many people are trying to get money in.   They may wait to see where we land, but everyone knows we will be back up to $900+ eventually.   It would be awesome to consolidate for a few weeks, but I doubt we will be so lucky.   You are new, listen to the likes of Nemesis.  Not Blitz, he is not so bright with his "2011 all over" talk.   Everything is crazy bullish right now.   This is the best buying opportunity we will have for quite a while.   Watch closely if you are waiting for a bottom, they happen fast and are gone.   It may take a few days to sort this correction out, but it will be history soon enough.   If I had any more fiat handy, I would be getting it ready to spend, alas I spent the last little bit I had at $180 after the crash from $233.   At least I still have some $2 coins     Seriously though, be careful, what you want is more BTC, not more fiat.   Don't miss the boat because you are too bearish.

7) Someone who missed a chance to sell at a profit after the April correction, and thinks it is happening again and panics.
8 ) Manipulation that didn't fail, causes doubt about the market, follows up with more dumps, waits for full on panic.

There is no viable alternative to BTC at the moment.   By the time any decent alternative were to come along, BTC will be so fully entrenched that it will take a long time to supplant, if ever.   IMHO we won't be in a slump for long, so buy back sooner than you think you should.   Just like the "weekend" dip often happened a day earlier each week in March, as people tried to beat everyone else to selling before the weekend dip, everyone will be scrambling to be the first to buy back in.   Each "bubble" will have (and has had) much less gain before the correction, and the rebound will come much sooner.   Because of the bullishness  overall conditions when this correction happened I can't see it being anything like April, let alone 2011.   Now, rip off that borrowed bear skin and get to looking for an entry point!

I promise you, bitcoin will not be what you think it should within the next few months.   That is not a guess, that is a promise.   Please do us all a favor and sell your bitcoins now, and leave as quickly as you came.   I can't believe that you are so new and think you know anything . . .   If you want to actually learn, spend some time listening, and asking questions.   Spend less time spouting nonsense.   There is a lot of great insight to be gleaned here, if you are wise.

Shhhh.   Don't let the secret out!

Have you seen Stamp's order book?   Bid's have exploded.  12.75 mil now.   I would be worried about being left with that fiat if I were you, the money is pouring in.

Seems to be quite the push to paint the tape green for the day . . .

To paint the tape green.   It was oh so close.   Green only moments before close.

Anyone who ever though it was not different this time is missing some critical thinking skills.

So glad to see the bears still can't understand what is going on.   Keep it up bears!   We need you.   Every time you turn bullish, we end up with a strong correction . . .  

If you party by selling a few coins, and treating your wife, she may warm up to it . . .   And then you would have someone to party with  

He is definitely not Frozenlock.   I have no idea why he stole his image, or why we have not heard from Frozen for quite a while.   I would speculate Frozen never bought back in after the April correction, since he said he was not holding through the fall again, and was expecting prices to fall much further than they did.   This guy who stole his avatar said in a post he only got into BTC this year.

lol

I'm just saying a happy wife can be pretty valuable too . . .  

How many people would have to be using bitcoin for you to consider it mainstream?   I think we are a long way from that still.   Price is currently undervalued in my opinion though, so definitely BUY 

I am pretty sure the bears are completely blind to the order books . . .   Bid sums are at an ATH.   34.4 mil on Gox and 14 mil on Stamp!   Every time I check there is another mil or two added.   The new money from the exposure Monday has not even made it to the exchanges yet.   Many of the twitchy sellers sold already.   We need the bears though, so don't discourage them.   Someone has to sell, or this will get real interesting real quick.   So, this is definitely a bull trap, sell now before its too late and we drop back below $100  

Uh, that money had to come from somewhere . . .   Even if all the money on the order book is from sold bitcoins, which it is of course not, the bitcoins that were sold had to be bought by someone with new money . . .   Slightly simplified, but you get the idea.   Do people even think before they say things these days?

We could name them like hurricanes, starting with the letter A and alternating male/female.   We could even assign categories to them based the amplitude of the spike.   

I think we just call overshoot/corrections "bubbles" now.   Even April looks nothing like a bubble if you look at the long term charts.

Not sure why you would insult . . . That is not cool at all.   I was actually supporting your comment, saying we did not have a bubble pop at all.

Will it surprise you? 

Is not price performance irrelevant?   Still an awesome gain for the week, makes the top ten.

Just so you know, you are that small fish . . .   And you are being played.

If you managed to gain coins in that shake out, good for you.   Many, and I bet even most who tried trading the oscillation lost.   I just hope you are mostly in at this point, as we are going to explode sometime this weekend.   People will wait for the mythical dip, and when it doesn't happen . . .   Combine that with so many people waiting to see where we are going before they buy, and we are sitting on one of the largest powder kegs I have ever seen in bitcoin.

Damn it!  All the twitchy traders have bought back in.   I see bumps in the road ahead . . .

Anyone with that many bitcoins would not attempt to cash them all out . . .  Think before speaking please!

I don't know, but it is a good thing they do.   Can you imagine what would happen if they didn't??  

Why do so many think this?   I did not sell at all because I had every confidence this would happen.   There is a ton of data out there that points to exactly this scenario.

It may, but I sure as heck wouldn't bet my wealth on it . . .

There are quite a few of us in here who are quite respectable.   Don't just assume we are all the same . . .  

I think Crypt might actually be one of the respectable ones, his comment was definitely sarcasm, basically highlighting the same thing you are.

For anyone who bought at the beginning of the year, this is certainly too good to be true, but it is true.   Only time will tell if today's purchasers will do as well.   My guess is yes, eventually . . .

BTCChina is stalled, looks pretty funny on 1m view, almost flat.

I am thinking that sellers aren't real motivated to sell, and buyers aren't wanting to get burned by running way ahead of the other exchanges again, so, flat.

They just had a sell off at BTC-e and the other exchanges didn't follow, why would they?   So no big deal really, gap has closed quite a bit.

Adam seems to be missing . . .   Haven't seen him around in quite a while.   I hope he didn't get caught running around with his bear coat on and slaughtered  

Currently there are 8k available on Bitstamp, and 14k available on Gox.   Stamps coins are sitting lower than Gox's for sure . . .

The order book has been bullish through this entire consolidation.   The asks never jumped, and while the bids were cleared by market sells, they have continuously been added to.   Even now, the bid sum is continuing to rise at a very steep rate.   At this point, while many who sold were taking profits, I think many who sold are also going to be wanting back in.   We saw a lot of coins pass to a new generation of bitcoiner, that the price is still only 10%(ish) off of the ATH, how is that not bullish?

Also, bitcoin only goes through long slow declines after a massive crash, which we have not seen, and may not.   If we do enter a bear market, it will be shorter than the one this summer.   As bitcoin matures, the crashes will be less epic, and the recoveries shorter, baring some serious negative news anyway . . .

So does this mean you have strengthened your bitcoin position?

This is great news actually, and extremely bullish.   When you who try to manipulate are no longer able to crash the market, we have come a long way indeed.   I am guessing that the attempt has weakened your(plural) strength to an extent?

To single digits, right?   

I used to have him on ignore, but he is entertaining enough at times I took him off.   The Schrodinger wall concept was great 

Please disclose your position.   My guess is that you sold, and you are now talking bearishly because you are wanting to buy back lower.   There is no indication that we will crash from here.   People that heard about bitcoin through the media of the last month are only now starting to be fully verified and able to get money in.   There may be more sell offs, though I would imagine that a lot of those who really wanted to cash out have done so.   This "bubble" is quite different than the last ones.   These last two sell offs were great for cooling the market off.   We needed the train to slow, or we would be headed for serious trouble.   The more new money that is parked in bids rather than panic market buying, the better off we are.

A slowly declining price on low volume in an overall bull market is a bullish sign.   Bids are still building, which is a sign that we are not entering a bear market.   We are certainly seeing an attempt to hold the market down, one would not place those walls if they were trying to sell and get top dollar.  Outside of some manipulation, the market still wants to go up, though if whoever it is succeeds in slowing the ascent, then that is a very good sign.   We either slow this down for a while or crash really hard at some point.   We need people to get used to the idea that it doesn't always go almost straight up.   So, overall I think we are sitting in a good place right now.

Long term capital gains.   Keep your bitcoins for a year, and they qualify.   Rates are far better than regular income tax, and are based on your tax bracket.   If you manage to keep your regular income low enough, there is even a 0% rate.   Most likely you will be paying 15%, unless you do quite well with your regular income . . .

Seriously?   What did you want the market to do, go straight up forever??   We have two alternatives, keep going straight up and crash straight down, or consolidate.   I vote for consolidate.   Bids are still coming in, so I would say what we have is a cautious market, not bearish, which is great.   Many of us have been through long periods of consolidation before, we like them, they are bullish.

It's still up.   I am in right now, just to keep an eye on status.

What are you smoking?   This was by far the smallest bubble.   Or you just see a big number and think big?

Were you here in April?

You and a LOT of other people as well are hoping for $500.   Which is exactly why it probably won't.   I suppose it could, which would be lucky for all of us, but I don't see it as likely.   I would not unwind a position though, the main regret all of us here have is selling.   We say at one point or another that it would have been nice to catch a top and then a bottom, but what keeps you up at night is knowing how many bitcoins you would have had if you had just held more at one time or another.   Pick a portion to play with, but for your own sanity, put most in cold storage.

Why are you here?   If bitcoin is doomed, then go away, you are wasting your own and everyone else's time.   I don't ignore many, but you are a special case.   Molecular is a respected long time poster, you, not so much.

I have held coins since 2011, I think I know a thing or two about going down.   It is in fact good to correct/consolidate after new highs.   It just gets SO tiring listening to your constant drivel, just so you can feel like you are moving the market so you can get your cheap coins.   Also, it would serve the newbs well to listen to established bitcoiners over other newbs.   If I were trading based on your posts, or molecular's, molecular's would have made me far more money . . .

Most newbs are simpletons, not experienced traders.   They do indeed listen to what is said on this forum, no matter how stupid that is.

I would imagine most already can piece together that people can be swayed like a bunch of sheep.   Also, we need perpetual bears to temper the exuberance of the over the top bulls.   An unchecked bull market is much more of a disaster waiting to happen.  

There is every probability that countries with capital controls will adopt a negative stance towards bitcoin(China).   In those countries bitcoin will be highly sought after for exactly that reason, to escape capital controls.   In countries that adopt a more liberal stance, we are just seeing the beginning of the spread of bitcoin as a useful currency.   The fact that China didn't act to shut down the exchanges is big in my opinion.

Also, all during the run up, the bears were saying that volume in China was fake, and therefore China was not a factor.   Suddenly now, China will be the end of bitcoin?  

People are in wait mode.   Price moving up on low volume is because the asks have not filled in.   A consensus is formed when people don't wish to sell less than a certain price, nor do people want to buy higher than a certain price.   When there is much of a spread between the two, volume drops off a lot.   Only time will tell how the spread closes.

Not that you may be wrong this time, but you were wrong yesterday.   We did not follow the pattern back to about $1200 like you thought might be possible.   Gox failures tend to bring on crashes, not stop them.   Gox went offline for a day during the last crash, and when they came back online, the crash continued.   That this dip didn't continue as soon as Gox came back means something.   Far be it from me to predict what though, this is bitcoin after all.   It's true that we did not rebound a lot.   People are sitting on their money expecting lower prices.   There is a LOT of money waiting for lower prices, or did Gox withdrawls start working?

Lower than the previous ATH?   Yeah, that has happened before.  

Edit: And by previous, I mean ATH of the previous bubble.

You are either here because you want to see bitcoin succeed, because you want to gloat when it fails, or to make as much money off of other people while it fails.   You are clearly not here because you want to see it succeed, and are deplorable for either of the other two reasons.   Go away, and please let the door hit you on the way out.

Who is going to want to sell for less than the floor before the start of the rally?   Let me help you out, NO ONE.

Well, the spring crash took 7 days to overshoot 2x previous ATH, and then an additional 10 weeks to retest at about the 2x previous ATH.  So less than 3 months, not 6.   I think 5-6 weeks is too long this time, it will be quicker IMHO, barring news one way or the other . . .

Each bubble smaller, each crash less severe, and each recovery shorter.   So far so good . . .   (Famous last words)  

Why do people keep thinking this?   The system has so much money in it that we do not need new money to come in for a run up.   We have had some Sundays with incredible gains.   Sunday is a day where people buy back in expecting new money on Monday.   Smart new money won't be dumped into market buys this time though, but parked in bids, or held on the sideline.   This could cause a dip throughout the beginning of the week, as expectations for new money to "save" us are unrealized.   We've seen it before.   I hope people are smarter this time, but I am not holding my breath.   As always I am all BTC, as I will not take part in activities that damage something I believe in, but people just need to stop expecting the new money to be the savior.   We don't need it, and whether we see it right away or not, the money is coming in . . .

One thing that you can be sure of, if/when we bubble again, it will not drop anywhere near $800.   It probably will drop again, watch for retracement on the current increase.   It will take a number of days to confirm the trend.   If you want a guarantee, buy now and put your coins in cold storage, in all previous bubbles, the only people who lost money were those who sold, and all of us would have at some point been incredibly happy buying at the all time high.   Buying after a large correction like this is a true gift.

That bit was for ibrahim11 . . .

They looked silly the moment they opened their mouths.   Fundamentals have as much to do with bitcoin as technicals, if not more, and fundamentals just keep getting stronger.

This ought to make you feel better . . .

If I had spent the cash that I used to buy mining equipment to instead buy bitcoins, I would be sitting on roughly $3,000,000.   Instead I have a teeny tiny fraction of that.   I don't really regret my decision, as it fit my risk analysis, but hindsight does suck, a lot.

I hope you managed to hang onto some of your stash.   If you did, you will still do quite well, and one day will be able to leave that job behind to focus on more important things.

Haha.   My course is pretty much set now.   Just like silver will always be in the shadow of gold, so the alts will ever look up to bitcoin.   Alts are nothing but wishful thinking, except maybe LTC.   We have no need of a fragmented system.   I don't want to choose one of 40 different alts depending on which store I go to, so I will continue to support one, bitcoin, and encourage others to do the same.

The end goal is not so much to have millions, but to be part of a new system.   That and to be free of the slavery of working a full time job for someone else, I have other much more important things to do.

Exactly what is going to happen to make 10's of millions of dollars suddenly run away from bitcoin?   Which is what would have to happen to see the price slide.   Other than wishful thinking, I can't wrap my mind around what you bears think is going to destroy bitcoin.   Can any of you read an order book?   After the April crash, the order book collapsed.   It is building like crazy right now.

And we might have another Carrington event, etc.   Of course there will eventually be a push to find tax evaders using bitcoin, but the best way to get caught would be to sell on an exchange . . .   Regulating exchanges? Having to abide by KYC?   That would certainly kill bitcoin.    

I was talking about the next few weeks anyway.   Sure there could be bad news, but in my opinion the odds are greater that we have good news than bad.

That's what you took from what I said?   BTC is extremely risky.   I am just saying that the odds are not in favour of that happening at such a time as to send us into a prolonged downtrend.   The biggest risk I see right now, is the speed of the recovery.  I think you are overestimating the effect of some of the news possibilities you bring up too.   The market was just looking for an excuse to correct when the China misunderstanding popped up.  

Edit: windjc beat me to my points . . .

How does it go? "The road to success is paved with failure"   I never implied there will not be bumps down the road.   I was simply calling into question the "wisdom" by some who were sure we would be in for a long slide right now.   Odds are against it.   Odds always have room for things to go the other way, I just bet on the greater odds.

Thanks!   I barely have time to keep up with this thread 

Seriously, why is everyone so surprised?   The market needed a correction off of $1240, but nothing actually happened to reduce bitcoin's appeal.   There is no way that there are or have been enough coins for sale for those who sold out to recover their positions, so the price must rise.   And as they say, there is no such thing as bad news . . .

0 confirmation transactions work fine!   The risk of a double spend is extremely low for low value transactions.   For high value ones, 6 confirms is vastly faster than a wire transfer, or ACH, or SEPA.  

Getting tired of noobs thinking they know anything . . .

We do need to get the mBTC switch underway.   I run into so many(most) who can't wrap their minds around the concept of being able to buy fractions, they all want to buy whole amounts, and even at $140 and $300 they were saying they were expensive.   They don't think those amounts are expensive anymore, but can't seem to realize that at some point, $1k will seem cheap too.

We don't need the price to be low though.   Maybe YOU do . . .

For all you noobs who think bitcoin is crashing down every time we drop a bit, I suggest you go research what retracement is.   We are firmly entrenched in a 48 hour up trend.   If the bears can muster some bad news, maybe we could dip again, but most who were going to panic did.   If we could stay between $800 and $1k for a while, that would be best, the longer we are here the more confidence is built for another leg up.   Remember, every person, without exception, who is calling for major drops in price, has sold at least a portion of their stash and are wanting YOU to sell your coins to them for cheap.

Does anyone know if BitPay does any selling at all at Gox anymore?

Bitcoin has value because it is open source, decentralized, and deflationary.   There is no chance whatever crap Chase comes up with will match that.   Also, bitcoin is worldwide.   The Chinese or Israelis or Indians, or Argentinians, etc., have no interest in anything Chase does.   I can't see what Chase can bring to the table that Paypal doesn't anyway.   This is nothing . . .

Even if they could go after the developers, the patent was filed November 28, so any preexisting software, protocols and methods are safe.

You are not reading that right . . .

Did you have a specific concern you want addressed?   Most of us here can see right away that there is not one piece of intelligent thought put into an article like that, so dismiss it.   If there is something you have a question about, ask!   We are then more than happy to share wisdom  

Bitcoinwisdom has seemed to be fine for me for the last while at least.   Reporting same numbers as Gox website.

Edit:  Nevermind, it is a couple seconds behind . . .

Bulls aside.  Bears aside.   Does it not look like a typical closing triangle on the 1d chart on Gox?   Looks to be with a 6 day frequency, due the the size of the move.   I don't have the balls to trade it(can't risk my precious BTC), but I bet trading off the 50% Fib, one could do quite well.   I don't think we can identify the trend until the triangle closes.   My guess is that the up trend is still intact, though we will move slow for a while, hopefully for a very long time.   Of course, if we don't get red candles for three days, then this is wrong.   Could also be a compressing frequency.

I had not thought of that!   It's pretty obvious now that you mention it though . . .

And people are squabbling over the price today, insanity!

How does the fact that we had a higher low fit into your bearish sentiment?

I still see a possibility we are in a closing triangle with a 6 day frequency, so we could go down for two more days yet before bouncing from a higher(than $576) low.

Bitstamp seems to be at an all time high for bid sum, or close to it, at $17.25M.

+1

Bearish for the dollar . . .

How is that short working out for you?

Well, it is certainly sad when you have to learn the hard way.

It's not like tons of us here don't try to drill it into everyone . . .

Don't. Short. Bitcoin.

I honestly hope you can close your short on the retrace.

Seeming less likely, the bears seem to be learning faster these days 

In this case, there was actual leveraged shorting going on . . .

There isn't one person here that can give any sort of rational answer to that.   The only consensus is that within some months, the price will be higher.   Buy now and wait it out whether it goes down or not, or wait until a clear trend is established so you don't have to see your investment worth less at some point.   The risk being you end up with less BTC.   Bitcoin will often do what no one expects, so trying to trade is just a gamble.   No one has ever realized a loss by buying bitcoins.   Many have given their money away in fear however, so my advise, is just buy and walk away for a few months.   It may go down from here, but it also may go up, and in my opinion, that is a bigger risk.

I think you definitely made the right call to close the short now.   Look at the 5min chart on Gox.   3 large green volume bars in the last few hours.   Almost seems like a whale has picked this as his reentry point, keeping buys small to avoid either panic buying or a lot of slippage.   

Hey bears, the writing is on the wall . . .

I am sorry you chose to learn the hard way.   We tried . . .

By the way, since you seem to like the risk of trading, where I just can't risk my precious BTC, I have an observation for you.   Look at the one day charts.   We had one large red candle the day the China news broke.   Imagine a stone thrown in a pond.   Following that, 3 days up, 3 days down, 3 days up, 2 days down.    2 days up?   1 or 2 days down?   If you are going to mess around, at least trade the larger swings, not every day.

Better yet, find an entry point and take a break . . .   You know you wish you had done it sooner.

I think we have set up orbit at Lagrangian point 1.

We have achieved a level of balance in the short term, and it takes significant pressure to move in either direction.

Got to fuel up for a few more days/weeks to break free and continue on.

I have 100% certainty it will go up, and 100% certainty it will go down  

Hello newbie.

While some here are consumed with chasing wealth, others of us have different goals.   Maybe no one can serve two masters, but one can certainly serve one, while being master over another.   Bitcoin serves me, not the other way around . . .

This is just part of the psychological manipulation game.   The "wall" is not there to keep the price down, and of course not to sell.   It is there for the sole purpose of keeping the bid sum/ask sum numbers manipulated.   Makes it seem that there are a lot of coins for sale, when in fact, a good chunk of the asks are that one person.   Once people start to figure this out, and that there are not nearly as many coins for sale at this price as it would seem, well, that will be interesting for sure . . .

CMMPro was wrong/trolling, don't know where he got his misinformation . . .

You can see the order sum here:  http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/pair/btc/usd/mtgox/10-days

No one thinks this is the end of bitcoin.   Everyone just wants to catch the bottom.   A dangerous game, as there will be more losers than winners.

Way to brighten a gloomy day, lol

You should apply for a job at Coindesk . . .

Why angry?   You did of course explain to them (before they bought) that this happens in bitcoin, right . . . ?

P.S.  You didn't get any of my coins  

Quit with the FUD.  

Average stable price before the Q1 run up was $13+ (for a month+)

Average stable price after the correction was about $100, other than during the panic, and at final capitulation.

We were stable at an average of about $130 before this run up (6 weeks).


Let's do a little simple math, which is clearly beyond you.

$13 > $266 > $100  2000% up at peak.   66% drop from peak on correction (other than overshoot and final capitulation)

We can agree each bubble and subsequent correction is less severe.   This means we don't overshoot on the way up as far, and the drop is much less percentage wise, off of the peak, and does not overshoot as far either.

$130 > $1246 > $743 (current)   1000% up at peak.   40% drop from peak.

This would seem to suggest our average "stable" price should be higher actually.   Half the growth, half the correction?  Should settle 33% down, no?

This is only if things are the same, which few would say that they are.   This is simply to debunk your FUD on where the price should settle.   Quit wishing for more cheap coins, you had your chance.

Edit:  Numbers are approximate.

I agree that breaking ATH next month will be a challenge, unless some ridiculously bullish news comes along.   That said, the trend changes before the crossover, does it not?   The crossover just "confirms" it.   Though only in retrospect.  

We will have to disagree there.   In the last crash, everyone was calling for a certain low that "had" to be hit before we could go up.   Consequently, we never hit that low.   Your call is lower than the vast majority, and since it is unlikely we will visit the low they are calling for, it is even less likely that we will test $400.   Barring more bad news of course.   Just don't miss the train!   We won't be resuming a raging bull market for a while, but trying to catch the bottom has ruined at least some.

You would certainly not tell everyone if you were actually going to.   You are a troll anyway, you do not have any coins right now, you have been bearish forever, and only a fool would be so bearish and still have that many coins around . . .

It is the Chinese government that you hate, is it not?

I was able to heat my entire home with my ASICs, for no more than the furnace would have cost to heat.   Next generation incoming will heat my greenhouse as well.   For me it has all worked out extremely well.   I can see being able to heat everything eventually, hot water, home, shop, swimming pool . . .

Mining is currently very profitable . . .   Perhaps not for those who ordered late.   Maybe only about 5% of income is needed for power currently, with first generation ASICs.   There is no need to hoard coins, and I think that is what keeps selling pressure up in a bear market, miners selling.   Miners tend to hoard in a bull market.

I know that those who spent bitcoin will not realize a bitcoin profit.   And I myself would have realized incredibly more profit had I purchased bitcoin rather than the ASICs.   Of course I would have probably long ago sold the bitcoin, if I had them instead, so really hard to calculate what could have been.    I feel for you . . .

Every sell is also a purchase . . .

So eventually, there will be nothing but a lot of coins sitting on the exchange, worth exactly $0  

I'll tell you what really sucks though, rather than bitcoin being more resilient because it is not tied to any one country, it is turning out to be fully vulnerable to multiple countries . . .

The sooner we kick stupid China to the curb, the better.

You have been a perma-bear.   Are you now starting to feel we are nearing the bottom?

BTC is not dead.   If it is not dead, then it will be worth more someday.   If it is worth more someday, then you will still do okay mining.   I have 17Th/s more on order, and I couldn't be happier.   Just be realistic with network difficulty(most people aren't), my calculations run up to 400,000Th/s.   This crash is good for those of us who mine, as it limits continued pre-orders . . .

Something to keep in mind in the middle of it all.  "If China Wanted to Ban Bitcoin, It Would Ban Bitcoin"

allthingsd.com/20131218/if-china-wanted-to-ban-bitcoin-it-would-ban-bitcoin/

Every time bitcoin gives up a few weeks gain, people come out calling it the end.  
Stocks, gold, etc. can erase months/years worth of gains, and it that is normal . . .

Do you have a thread where you are discussing the bigger questions?   I don't have time to watch what you were seeing happen, but would like to be able to keep up . . .

I am a bit curious what the endgame of those bots was/is.   Seems expensive if someone is simply trying to force a trend.   I didn't see how much was being burnt in the process, so impossible to speculate on whether it would be beneficial to whoever sold the 10k at the top or not.   Of course the tinfoil hat idea would be that someone is trying to drive bitcoin to $0 and does not care how much it cost.

*puts on tinfoil hat*

Well, with his business about to fail, Bobby probably figured he would just get out while he could, and take the coins with him . . .

Or, maybe the government confiscated them all.

Either way, with that many coins off the market, the price will skyrocket  

*removes tinfoil hat*

One could wish     Well, wish the price would skyrocket anyway, not that you would lose your coins 

First off, if BTCChina closes(seems likely), that won't mean much at all.   The possibility of that is already priced in, not that the manipulators won't take advantage, it will just be a buying opportunity.    So trading is suspended there, oh well, that would only serve to throw off the old anchor.  
And this volume that you keep bringing up.   First, add all of the volume from the three major exchanges(leaving off China), there was really only Gox in April.   Can't discount BTC-e because it is not a USD exchange, many people who traded at Gox in April trade there now.   Second, convert to dollar value!   Bitcoins were worth almost 10 times what they were at the April floor.  

So, 109k on Gox, 137k on stamp, 148k on BTC-e.   Total, 394k BTC traded in one day.  

April, 572k on Gox, 35k on Stamp.   607k total.  

Dollar adjusted 3,940k BTC were traded this month at the low vs 635k in April.

I am not saying we won't drop again, I am just saying we had a TON of volume.   Before you say that dollar value is irrelevant, check trade volumes of Berkshire Hathaway.   The more valuable something is, the less volume is traded, not the other way around.

Totally agree.   BTCChina closing would be very bullish, medium term.

What if the Chinese actually want bitcoins?   Maybe they just did the same thing everyone else does and used the opportunity to sell high and buy low.   Maybe with the prospects of the exchange closing, they realize that their bitcoins will become much more valuable and sought after . . .  

Bid sums on Stamp and Gox getting closer to ATHs.   Asks dropping.   Buys happening.   Price increasing.

Manipulated or not, this is no April, certainly no 2011.

This is something entirely new.

What if there is no retrace to test the low?

I guess maybe I will be stuck with my 10% fiat  

Since I have 10% fiat at the minute, I am actually in full short term bear mode(for me).   I am not yet convinced this rally will stick.   There actually has to be a retrace, I would think . . .   Bitcoin often does what you least expect though.

+1

Every time we give up a few weeks gains, "Bitcoin is DEAD!!!"

The stock market can give up months or years of gains, and that is just normal . . .

First time was China delivered a crippling blow to bitcoin in China.   Second time they delivered a fatal blow.  

What exactly is going to drive the third leg that matches your fancy lines?

Kinda awesome is what it is.   It is where we have to get to before we can move on.   If one exchange can be taken out, and it has this much effect on BTC then we are in deep trouble.   

We have to learn to let individual exchanges do their thing when they go off the deep end . . .

No question about that.   This is the third time I have been through the whole "bitcoin is dead" thing, so I am used to it.   The thing is, it has to get to the place where these things have only a minor effect on the price, as until it can stop giving up more than half of it's value in a few days, the broad majority will still scoff.   It will come, just growing pains.

We can see an obvious attempt to ignite panic, but so far it hasn't worked.   It's pretty up in the air right now.  
Chances are it will be lower at some point over the next few days.   Of course bitcoin is notorious for doing what everyone least expects . . .

Really?   They didn't know going in that this happens?   I am very careful to explain the risks and how these things work to my friends.   Not one is less interested now than they were, which is to say most are quite sorry they didn't buy when I told them they should  

Did your friends lose money?

Been here a month and you know something?   Your opinion is worth less than that Doge.  

The bottom is in, not sure how close to it we will get on a retest, but it will be higher.

Well, to be fair, the adoption curve does not move in a straight line on the exponential scale.   Adoption comes in spurts, so we may lag behind the curve for a while then shoot over it for a while.   Look at early this year, after spending a long time in the $10 range, we shot up to a "stable" $100ish, with a few (not so)minor bumps along the way.  

I don't expect that our growth will always be along the line, and to be sure, at some point we will fall way below the predicted trend and stay there.   People don't find out about and enter bitcoin at a set rate.   Events, etc. accelerate or stagnate the adoption.  

Quick piece of math for you to do, Gox just announced they crossed 1 million customers.   I am sure the other exchanges have at least some customers that never signed up on Gox, so that is a lot of people.   How many coins are out there to go around?   We know how many have been mined, but there are a LOT in cold wallets, lost, etc.   There are not enough coins for those people to have even 4 each probably, and the price would be astronomical once they did.

Short term may still have some bear left in it, but I think the manipulators/accumulators are doing a pretty good job of keeping even reasonable people bearish.   As long as they are successful, it is a bear market.   Take advantage of it, but there is a great risk of getting burned at some point.  

Try not to make it look like you are telling someone they are stupid because they have different opinions than you do . . .

By the way, for those of you who keep screaming about coins moving around the blockchain being a signal of thousands of coins about to hit the market . . .

It's part of the ploy!   You are being manipulated.   The "whales" know that people will see those coins moving and be like "Oh NO!  The sky is falling", and sell.

Not that you can't take advantage of the signs of manipulation, but those coins are not headed to an exchange.  The one time this is not entirely true is on major negative news, and even then, most of the coins moved are just for effect.

I have a bit of cash still sitting around for just such a case.

It takes a long time for people to get verified on the exchanges.   There are many people still waiting for verification I am sure.   While a retest of the low would be nice for some more coins, I feel there is a lot of buying pressure on the way.   Many will wait until we break from the trend, but many who first saw the price racing through $800 or $900 will probably see this as a great entry price, providing for buying pressure that may not let us dip as far as we hope.  

I don't know, I just feel that we are running out of coins, and the big boys don't want anyone to know about it yet.  Watching the ask volume has been interesting for me, as the coins up high that show up and disappear are all there to provide the illusion that there are a lot of coins up for sale.   Most(all?) of those would be owned by whales.

Just don't risk a significant percentage of your coins on the bet we will retest the lows.   Since it makes sense that BTC will be worth quite a bit more in the future, I don't see lost coins as "only" a few hundred lost.  The biggest mistake I have made was selling quite a few coins in the last crash, waiting for lows to reappear that never did . . .   Right now I am only 10% fiat.

I think the long verification queues were responsible for the very short bear market.   Each should be shorter . . .

I have to admit that I can't put myself in the position of the newbie.   I would think that many would look at charts and realize we won't be shooting back up right away and take their time with being wise, maybe not.   Some will I am sure.   In April we only had the one previous major crash to go on, and I too sold more than I should have, and sat on the sidelines for too long with that cash.

July?   Why would you think that?   If you mean we won't bubble again until then, then I agree.   We spent only 3 months in a bear market after April.  Crash April 10, last low July 4.   I expect this bear market to be shorter.   The development and usefulness of bitcoin is accelerating.

lol, must read more closely

Read as "are" in a bear market until July . . .  

Is that wall actually being eaten, or did he pull 1k of it?

You and everyone else . . .  Actually, everyone will probably try to sell early before everyone else does.   It will take quite a bit of push to get to $10k.   Kind of like the latent heat of vaporization, it takes so many dollars to raise to $9,999, then 5 times that much just to get over the $10k hump.

I think a lot of the volume in China was indeed because of the 0% fees.   We are just seeing it drop back to where it should have been.   You can see the huge volume spike when the 0% fees became effective.

Also, when a market is perfectly balanced, and no one wants to sell or buy, you get no volume.    Of course there is a fiat problem in China.   We know this.   What people are poorly speculating about is that the Chinese will want out so bad they will sell their bitcoins for pennies on the dollar.   This simply does not appear to be the case, why would it be?   Trading will just dry up, and those who want to sell will move to one of the other exchanges.   Getting money wired into China is not an issue.   I am sure many of them will simply sit on their coins, and wait for them to gain value, rather than trade them.   We are days past the event, if their coins were going to flood the market, they would have, and if some of the coins we have seen hit the market are Chinese, the rest of the world has gobbled them up like champs.

This whole China doom thing is getting old.   They were irrelevant a couple months ago, they can be irrelevant again.   What they did help us accomplish was a worldwide media blitz, so, they have done quite enough.   China may no longer be able to provide the support for the prices where they were, but the rest of the world sure can.   1 million accounts on Gox now.   Bid sums near ATHs, which of course is as much manipulated as the ask sums, but it is still telling to see the amounts growing.

We are not out of the woods, but many here are more gloomy than circumstances call for.

You say 'movement' like something is actually moving . . .   It's been practically flat for more than five hours.   No one is leading anyone anywhere.

Go look at the run up to $729.   Gox started at 14:55, and the last large buy was at 16:00, it was downhill from there.   BTCC didn't get any volume spike at all until 14:57, and hit it's peak(volume and price) of 4001 at 16:46.   So I fail to see how Gox was following.   In fact, it was definitely not following.   The only possible conclusion from looking at the charts is that BTCC lags Gox by a couple to quite a few minutes.

If/when we have a final capitulation, the price will stay higher than the low we have already had . . .   It's psychology, support has been identified, and everyone will be racing to beat everyone else and buy before we dip to the support.   If it coincides with a series of bad news, then maybe we would dip below, not likely unless a very specific set of circumstances arises.

I can't believe the lack of intelligence in this thread . . .

All this low bid depth and low volume is ridiculous.   Dollar volume is massively more important than BTC volume.   Same goes for bid depth.   It would be stupid to think that just because someone dumped 50k coins (worth maybe a bit more than $5M) earlier in the year, that it would happen again.   Anyone with that many coins has a vested interest in the health of bitcoin.   Someone would have to want to damage bitcoin, it just dos not make sense.   The same 50k coins would be worth massively more now, why would someone just dump them?  Bid sums are near or at ATHs.   This is not bearish.   As BTC gains value, volume will drop WAY off.   Compare dollar volume now to dollar volume in the July to October time frame, we have more dollar volume now.   This gives more of an idea of what a slowly increasing market looks like.   Healthy growth, not the stupid parabolic growth.   People scream about low volume, but we don't want the volume of November, it leads to a bubble!  

There does not need to be 10 times the dollar volume to support a price that is 10 times higher.    If BTC were $10k, expecting there to be tens of thousands in BTC volume every day would be ridiculous.   In fact, if there needed to be 10 times the volume to support 10 times the price, eventually we would have to be trading the entire amount of mined bitcoins every day.   If someone were to dump 50k BTC, that would be like someone dumping $38B worth of gold all at once, no market could absorb that without massive slippage.   While it is much easier to see 0.4% of bitcoins dumped all at once than gold, it still becomes less likely as bitcoin gains value.   It would make no sense to dump them all at once, on an exchange, unless for manipulation, and even then, the coins would have to be re bought for less if it was manipulation.   As bitcoin makes gains in usage, there will be less and less volume on the exchanges.   It is possible that eventually there would be almost no volume on the exchanges.   There is no trading when everyone agrees on the price, bitcoins are only bought or sold as they are actually needed.

Those being ridiculously bearish (there are a very few intelligent bear arguments) are just butthurt over the markets reaction over the last few weeks.   Many are only interested in making a quick fiat profit in the volatility that surrounds big drops, so they crave that.    They have no interest in the long term health of bitcoin.   The bears have stopped using their lines on charts to predict the doom of bitcoin because we have broken most of them.   Now the are crying about volume and bid depths.   Wake up people, compare the USD bid depths, and coin ask depths to the crash in the spring.   Compare news, and sentiment, and proliferation, and new projects.   There is not a lot of comparison.  

Make up your own minds, but be very skeptical of those trying to create fear.   Simple math goes a long way.   The lines many have drawn on charts failed to accurately predict recent prices.  They can't take into account the news, in either direction.   When people try to make it sound like they know what they are talking about, be very wary.  That goes for me too, don't take my word for anything, think about it.   If the things someone says begins to play at your emotions, there is a good chance you are being manipulated . . .


Sorry for the long post, but I got home late and spent a few minutes catching up on the thread, and got super frustrated.  I actually have some fiat sitting around because I believe there could still be a drop as the China issue is still not closed, and I am sure there will be a further attempt to cause panic selling if something goes bad there again.   You couldn't make me sell right now for anything though, not even into a "final capitulation".

Why so ridiculous?   Someone on Gox sold 10k at once at about $1200.   $12 mil.

The dump failed, as enough ask depth was never built at the lower prices, and only in this market at this price is he able to buy back those 10k+ bitcoins without too much slippage.   When he is done, the pump starts.   I have a feeling that it will be much more successful than the dump.  Oh, and thank you bears for giving him the opportunity     You have just handed him the power to do it all over again.

Why do unintelligent people seem to always be willing hand their wealth to others?

You used to speak a bit more intelligently.   For quite a while now you have been an unreasonable bear . . .

No Wall Street money will ever end up on an exchange.   Well, I can't say none at all . . .   Large bitcoin transactions take place off exchange.   The only money that will come in to the exchanges from Wall Street types will be the small amount it will take to drive the spot price up after they have purchased as much as they can.   Some smaller investors may buy on exchange, but there will not be enough liquidity for some time to satisfy large investors.   What will happen is that as large investors soak up coins from other sources, there will be a general reduction in coins available in the system which will put upwards pressure on the price.

This is all based on speculation anyway.   We are trending up(mid term) with or without a bunch of money from Wall street.