I think at first, lag's outcome is unpredictable. Then come the sell-offs.

With proper design, those checks far outside the center would not even be being compared against. I also suspect that the trading engine is doing more than just trading. Kind-of a no-no.

I can't even get on right now. Not even the homepage. It's a circus.

I'm done trading.

I'm mostly a holder. But I tried trading a few of my hard-earned coins. I made a couple of bad trades and am down a little on those. No biggie, learning curve. However, what has really put me off is that while $ have lost $x through my bad trades, I have been unable to realize at least $x/2 through Gox being shitty and have $x*2 out in limbo, likely never to be seen again with bitcoin-24. I'll still be cheering from the sidelines but dammit, there's nothing more frustrating to me than not being able to use your money when you want to.

Everyone ready for the almost* inevitable flash-crash?




(*weasel word alert)

Has anyone actually looked at how often walls are eaten away as opposed to cancelled? I think the incidence would be very low.

A lot of that is ephemeral too though. People are changing their orders all the time. Once things start moving, you can't count on much. The only way to judge support really is to watch how the price moves.

MtGox unusable once more. Even trying to cash out to BTC is a chore with that craphole.

Was trying to buy before the rise. My order never made it.

Just a little more down and I'll be back on the bull...

I just saw gox flicker down to 94.something yet my 95.2 buy still stands. Something screwy going on. I'll be glad when I'm out.

Did everyone fall asleep?

It's a planned exit, not a rout.

Then again, with how much I'm being interrupted today...

And I'm out. Bitcoins on the way to my wallet.

Precisely. Now back on the bull-wagon

This *is* the correction

And to think I was getting fussy over trying to get the price down a few cents earlier. Thank god I made it

Bitcoin adoption is often compared to the internet. But imagine if the internet arrive and everyone already had quad core computers and fiber to the home. That's more what it's like.

Some of them seem to have a psychological objection to variance. Or maybe the theory is that as more asics come online, the pools will regain their importance so some loyalty is in order.

As I said, if you believe that chart that was being bandied about, this is the return-to-the-mean which is about correct at 120. I'm withholding my judgement but I suspect we'll see a steady climb until we get some more news of governments doing something crazy. Which could be any time...

Very much like a month ago. We just need a government to do something stupid in 5... 4... 3...

You have to be careful with what you think you're looking at too. You might think that interest in bitcoins correlates with Google trends but the thing is that the differential of an exponential is an exponential. Thus the trend on google may not correlate with the interest in something but rather with the *change* in interest in something but during an exponential period, these would look the same/similar.

What we need is an electronic based currency that's easy to move around and doesn't rely on overly regulated and bureaucratic infrastructure.

Oh wait...

OTOH, if you believe in Bitcoin, Paypal will either have to take it on eventually or be eclipsed by someone who does. In this case, this is a very good sign.

It does when we're discussing whether things like this are important or not. Your opinions are colored by your beliefs. You're saying that you don't think it's big news (and you're entitled to your opinions), I'm just explaining why, for some of us, it is.

He's be more likely to try embrace-extend-extinguish. Livecoin anyone? Bingbits? Thank Christ he's not running Microsoft anymore.

I think the point is that the order book is not written in stone. It is dynamic and changes according to circumstance.

Maybe he accidentally formatted his hard-drive

Another point to consider is that right now, any move Satoshi makes with his coins is likely to risk his/her/their anonymity.

Well, going straight to micro would be a little cumbersome at this stage.

Speak for yourself.

I can see the hacked-together thing. Everything is modular. Heck, even the major part of the engine is already there. Basically it's just some glue logic and a fancy interface to tie it all together. If you have note readers and receipt printers and the like lying around and libraries to drive them (where required), there's no reason that you couldn't cobble something that works together quickly. Of course, the 80/20 rule applies and there's a lot more to getting a shipping product out there than having a working prototype.

No reason for it but I'm feeling a little short-term bullish. We'll see.

Maybe it's this kind-of thing.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10027101/There-will-be-more-wealth-confiscation-without-a-doubt-Saxo-Banks-Lars-Christensen.html

I don't think we'll see a rush like Cyprus but things have been set in motion.

The paypal thing, while interesting and good news, is ultimately kind-of irrelevant when you think about it.

If I had ebay stock, I might be planning an exit strategy. It's the big-boy on the block but like all big businesses, it's become slow and ossified. Consider that much ebay stuff is bought and shipped directly from China. Now consider a currency with low transaction fees and no exchange issues*.



*Well, if you see what I mean.

For me, this place seems to have gone from a mostly honest discussion about the price to a lot of people trying to talk the price up or down in order to try to sell high or buy cheap (mostly the latter).

I'm going to just step outside and if the price is back where it is supposed to be when I return, we'll say no more about it...

I think I preferred it when we were all funny pictures. This board is a meaner place since the bubble burst.

My bet is it's as fake as fake can be.

Hah, both you guys are using outdated software. I have the latest, up-to-date, whizz-bang stuff and it says that it may go up, down or stay the same.

I hear the next version will be out soon though. It will be able to quantify how much change in the form of "Up to x% or more".

I believe his final words were "My work is done here"

Charts, you say?

It's not too high, it just feels too high after the drop to near 50.

What basically is happening is that there are too many bitcoins being held by early adopters. Not that there is anything wrong with that per-se but they need to be teased out and into the wider community for Bitcoin to become well established. It's not going to happen all-at-once (and that's a good thing) but is going to lead to volatility along the way.

Guys, let's please stop turning on ourselves. No one is happy with the price falling (well, maybe a bear or two out there) but let's not turn it into a grudge match.

Eat a donut or something, get your blood sugars up.

Someone mentioned they'd like to see 3d charts a while back so I had a try to see how they'd look. 2 hours ago:



Last hour:



Obviously, it's a work in progress. Thoughts?

Yeah, I can tweak the angle but it's not quite as smooth as I'd like right now. I had to fiddle with it quite a bit to have it look halfway decent and I think I need to rewrite my equations a bit but it wouldn't be terribly hard.

All hand-written in Perl I thought about the polygons but they would hide data behind. Not sure if semi-transparent would be a possibility. I also have some ideas for other options also

It could be done but not really in a way that could be posted as an image in this thread. Maybe as a flash thing or something?

Wow, messy...

I think you'd have to rework the data to be able to do a mesh (though Matlab may handle that for all I know).

You'll buy it for me?

I'd probably go gnuplot if I was that way inclined. For a couple of dozen lines of code, not so much worth it.

It's not a matrix though, it's a list of prices and amounts at each point in time. No reason something like Matlab couldn't handle something like that, as mature as it is but I don't know if it does. Overkill for something like this though.

This was the case in England for a while too. I can't remember if it was customer pressure or legislation that got it changed. You also have to pay for your checkbooks in the US too.

Too frequent?

A matrix of the kind which I used reasonably often in the course of my time as a student of physics (graduated with honors, thanks) was typically of an n*m (or other dimensional) format which would fit neatly into a grid. The bids and asks returned from the API are not (hence my suggestion that the numbers may need rework).

It is depth on the vertical axis, surely?

The data is freely available from Gox. I can post up the code I use to get it if you want. It's pretty simple.

I did consider that. I may give it a try later.

Apologies that times are in Central. I'll get them turned to UTC as soon as I can.

Highly complex data capture code. Keep your criticisms to yourself :p


It runs from a cron job every minute. Much of this is old code and should be removed. This could also be done using wget if that's your preference.

Thank you. Always appreciated

Good point. I think I'll put some horizontal lines on minute 59.

I also need to work out automating it. I can't be staying up all night posting.

Yes, that was the post which inspired me. I have written the graph with stereoscopy in-mind but need to modify my equations to be able to do that. I'm nor really up for anaglyph though, I have an interlaced 3d monitor that can work with side-by-side images so expect to see that sometime soon. I do believe there is software that would be able to convert between the two though.

I have the LG passive 3D monitor. Didn't want to mess with expensive active glasses and my daughter has a bunch of the polarized ones she brought back from the theater for "free". Since I use an AMD card for mining, I use the tridef software for gaming. Arkham City looks real good with it and Bioshock too if it weren't for the low-res texture problem.

test

I guess that means I should probably change my password.

Yeah. But my automated script attempts to log in, meaning it passes my user & pass to whatever webserver it attempts to connect to. If the domain is hijacked, that could be a rogue webserver that's collecting user info. It could also spoof if you log in manually too.

Yeah, that's a pretty big "if". Seems very possible but if patterns always repeated, it would already be accounted for.

On the other hand, people will hold on as long as possible, often leading to a long slide.

On the third hand, Bitcoin fundamentals are still solid in my book. So I'll keep hold of what I've got.

Got a feeling we might see another (slow) bounce above 100. Not sure where it will land though.

I don't think anyone is denying it's a risk management strategy. It's different from the blackjack example though.

Being played like cheap violins. Glad I'm not trading right now. I'm not immune.

Zzzzz

Just don't let the hairdresser watch the charts while they're using the scissors...

Fair working rights for bots!

It'll be like 2001. We'll find a big black obelisk and send a spaceship to Jupiter.

Bitcoin is not on a performance curve but an adoption curve (at least that's my belief).

When it reaches near saturation, it will about flatline at whatever price with minor fluctuations and probably a slowish upward climb due to fiat inflation and bitcoin deflation.

Well, I see your point but I also don't want to spam the board with large charts. I'll play with things a little when I get the chance.

Hey, I fixed UTC times and added a few world times. Vertical axis will be up next.

Navigable version would not be especially difficult but I'm not sure which platform to use. Java would make it browser viewable (though not on this site) but Java in the browser is not so recommended anymore.

Some people asked for these. So go fetch your red-green glasses



Or red/cyan


Or put on your cinema3d specs (passive 3d monitor not included)

Now, there's something I wouldn't mind being told more often.

The last hour's market, price on the X axis, market depth on the Z axis and time on the Y. Newest information closer to the front. Data gathered every minute, stored then processed at the 59th minute of each hour.

Sure. PM me and we can discuss my rate. Or do it for yourself and see why it's not such a good idea (the human eye is not all that good at color).


I posted the script I use a few pages back. You can have that for free. (tips always appreciated though).

If you really don't like the 3d plots, feel free to ignore ChartBuddy. He won't mind.

We definitely need another exchange. I know there may be those out there with the skills to create a fantastic exchange but who are lacking the resources. In the spirit of supporting Bitcoin, I have some Pokemon cards I would be willing to lend out to help someone get started.

On the way down, the bid side was pretty steep. I think that's a side-effect of it getting eaten into.

Feel free to hit the ignore link placed handily in the ChartBuddy user-info box to the left of the charts for and you won't have to see them. 

If you can't deposit or withdraw BTC, how do you know you are trading BTC?

If this is UK based, it could be good for me. I'll have to look into it.

Do you mean left view, right view or something else? If the former, recent changes I have made have made that possible. Stay tuned.

So, say 100 people each put 1000GBP in, buy bitcoins, price quadruples then they cash out, where does the GBP from? Exchanges need to be open at both ends and the exchange just takes a cut from transactions otherwise you have currency supply issues. Which could have a detrimental effect on the price, as can be seen on some of the exchanges where it is hard to get USD in.

Haha, yes. I'll be steering clear.

Looks like we are shaping up for a scrap. Or more like a game of chicken. Who will blink first?

I'm not sure but I think the depth data might possibly show separate orders as separate entities.

This is the entry at 110:
{"price":110,"amount":15071.34118868,"price_int":"11000000","amount_int":"1507134118868","stamp":"1367807143242382"}

I'm not sure what the stamp is but as this is the only 110 entry, I'm thinking that this is probably an amalgamation of several orders. (I thought that that there was a stamp probably meant that there was one entry per order but I now think that's not the case).

I was just thinking it was time to track down that launch picture directory...

Oh, I figured the unix time thing. I just wasn't sure what it signifies.

In the Erisian Archives is an old memo from Omar to Mal-2: "I find the Law of Fives to be more and more manifest the harder I look."

Have you ever seen a medium perform where they're saying they hear a voice, it's Susan, maybe Sarah. She's your mother, no grandmother, maybe a childhood friend?

Gotta be able to turn on a dime in the prediction business.

It doesn't so much apply to bubbles as much as when, in a rising market, you get flash crashes and bear traps which cause people to panic sell and generally try and chase the market. Stronger hands will carry through such short-term dips (and even buy during them) because they believe the longer term trend is up.

Conversely, it is likely that bubbles and crashes are actually caused by weak hands, those who rush in when they think they can make a profit then bail when it all looks a bit pear-shaped.

Of course, this implies that those who believe in long-term growth are correct. It's a matter of perspective.

I wanted to do the socket.io thing (and still do for another project) but found it poorly documented and jumped on the http in the end. I still need to figure out why I appear to be regularly missing the first few minutes each hour from Gox. It's not always but it's often enough to be annoying.

Bear in mind that the market cap is somewhat meaningless. It doesn't mean that if you dump all the bitcoins on the market, you end up with $3 trillion.

It's not so much the API as the socket.io thing. I'm sure I can work it out though. I want to write an app for Android so I can see the charts realtime like a picture viewer without having to do a browser deal. Though probably someone has already done that. Often seems to be the way these days.

I don't understand the top-of-the-hour stuff. If it happened before, I'd just think it was Gox but I'm thinking it must be something I'm doing that's blocking the requests.

Read as "CFTC increases regulations, raising the barrier to entry, building cosy relationships with existing operators and ensures that said operators can continue to operate under practices that would see them fail in a free market".

Might buy some if we get close to 90.

Maybe they are dumping cheap Chinese bitcoin knockoffs

Who ya gonna call?

Goxbusters!

ChartBuddy retrieves each piece of data as a new file and at the top of each hour, processes all of them into an image. If this is happening, it shouldn't be ChartBuddy but it's not impossible. I'd put more money on Gox feeding bad data. Looks like it's all back working though. Other option is that the data is good and the market is boring


If you'll notice, when good data can't be retrieved from Gox, the line for that minute isn't plotted.

Yeah, someone with 8000 BTC clearly likes to own them and is probably looking to buy more.

Hehe, red wall ran away.

Richy_T concurs.

I haven't been watching the charts but I think they're likely not that flat. I think Gox is feeding bad data.

Confirmed. Every dataset retrieved for that hour is identical. I'll have to find a way to flag that.

What is the going rate for smurfberries in mBTC?

Sweet. I don't have one up. I tend to be sticker shy with my vehicles but I think I'll get one on the back window soon.

If you mean "The price goes up and the price goes down", yes.

I wonder if that's more than a coincidence with the unchanging nature of the 3d chart. I'm thinking I may need to upgrade from using the HTTP API.

OTOH, it has shown it can go high. Might be a race to see who can pick the top.

Personally, I think some longer-term stability would be for the best but it'll do what it will do.

Anyone care to make a Coinageddon countdown timer?

I agree. But I just though Coinageddon!!! (Now with added exclamations) would be a bit of a larf (innit?)

It's usually drawn as a triangle. But as someone with a physics background, I see it like this:

Pfft. We won't ever see below 320,000 again!

Buy and sell with a plan. Your emotions will f*ck you over. Royally.

Sure. But the zero just means displacement from the mean. A car's suspension is a damped oscillation but that doesn't mean it goes through the road when you run over a squirrel.

What is more interesting to me is why, when the oscillation has about died away, the tendency seems to be for things to fly off in one direction or the other. I don't seen any obvious mechanism.

I was just searching randomly and

http://www.shapeways.com/model/725214/joseph-ducreux-sculpture.html?li=productBox-search

I think I may buy one myself. Very reasonably priced.

Also

I'm printing out a paper wallet and setting fire to it. That'll teach 'em. (Checks backup is good).

Haha, yeah, it's pretty bad. I'll add some logic in to not post up if there's no data. You'll probably still see the 9am central chart though. Actually, I'll just turn it off. Gox probably isn't coming back in a hurry.

Yeah, I think the rounding error is the plot to Superman 3.

The error I'm getting with my bot is certificate verification failed. God only knows what they're up to.

Edit: Looks like data.mtgox.com is using the certificate from www.mtgox.com. It's amateur hour (or four), guys.

Try disabling certificate checking.

And the whims of Roman emperors.

Is the other host on a different subnet? If you are natted, they should have the same IP I would think.

Yay! To the moon... Oh, wait.

I concur with your assessment then

Right now, they're worth whatever they are changing hands for. That's about all you can say.

Bitcoin is not just some fancy virtual casino for you to play in. It's supposed to be a currency. For it to succeed at that, people need to build services around it. That is very hard for them to do when the price is all over the place. Large swings could cost them a lot of money or even make them illiquid. Without goods and services, Bitcoins value will be zero.

Bitcoins price rise is a process of pulling bitcoins from early adopters in a slow but steady process. Bubbles and busts, though inevitable, (especially when governments do stupid things) do not aid in the process.

I have nothing about speculators but realize there's a long game at play here for many of us.

It could just have fallen out. Mail gets treated rough, gets damp etc. Probably best to send it with a piece of card, preferably attached or embedded. Mine just arrived in a ziplock baggie though.

I bought a silver dollar just so I could look at it and see how far we've slid downhill. Melt value somewhere around $28 last I checked. I kinda wish I hadn't bought it in a sealed box though. Would have been nice to handle it. But it was only a hair more expensive than lower quality circulated.

Step 1: locate time machine.

OK guys, (and gals), I am dead surprised that no one has done this before. And with some apparently naive attempts to shake the tree being perpetrated by some low post-count users, I though it was time to remedy the situation. So to raise our spirits and encourage us all to endure, I present, finally...

Good luck (sincerely). Not something I would want to work on as I think it would likely be a quagmire but the more exchanges we can have out there, the better.

I think the biggest issue you will run into will be banks finding any way they can to close your funding options down. If you can figure out a way to do that, it's like a license to print money (oh, wait).

I was thinking of getting a little junk because y'know, EMP, magnetic field reversal, biological attacks, nuclear strike, hyperinflation, oil crisis, Fema camps, megaquake, zombie apocalypse and all that. I guess I'll probably hold off, looking at that graph. Do you think it might make 18.33 before Coinageddon!!! though?

+1. Maybe as a hedge against inflation but there are better investments for that too.

I was thinking that the bubble may have "paused" the growth, thus we might expect a line parallel to but slightly lower than the previous line for ongoing growth.

Uh, no.

There is no "too big to fail". There is "corporate welfare" which Bitcoin isn't in line for.

That assertion has no basis in anything. All Bitcoin needs is infrastructure, wide adoption and stability. The price is actually irrelevant.

This is starting to feel like the pre-bubble action. Consolidation, rise, consolidation. If we hang on around this price much longer, I'd expect another bump upwards.

If cheap coins don't materialize then the current price becomes cheap coins.

Likely you would have to charge much more than that as you will be flooded by chargeback scammers.

And then there are the idiots who will screw up their third-part bitcoin transaction, see they've no hope of doing anything through Bitcoin and so do a chargeback against you.

In a bubble collapse, there are often bag holders who are wary to sell at a big loss so hang on for a while and those who attempt to double-down. I got involved in one once (on the advice of someone else. I should have known better) and watched as it took about four months for my shares to drop from 40c to 1c or so after the bust.

I don't think that's what's happening with Bitcoin at all but it's simply not necessarily the case that the deflation after a bubble burst is all that quick.

I don't think it really does. This was a no-hope company with not really much going for it. I knew the mechanics of a pump & dump but thought my friend knew what he was talking about. I held because I was mentally incapable of locking-in my losses. Now it's not even worth my time to sell what I have. Bitcoin is pretty solid under the hood (in my opinion) and I'm holding less for the chance to "cash out" in the future but more because I believe it will be expensive to "cash in" once the full potential starts unfolding.

There's a big danger in comparing a model to historical data and assuming it will predict future performance.

The stock market is also a very different thing than it was in the 19th and most of the 20th century. Several orders of magnitude different.

To be fair, it's not really that interesting over the past couple of days.

It's not about people being able to use money to make money, it's about people with money being able to buy power to manipulate money and the money supply. There's a big difference.

It's like Marx had it wrong. He was all worried about the workers having control of the means of production. What he should have been more worried about was control of the means of consumption.

I don't think there's anything that isn't a bearish sign to fourkey. I think he's wearing these:

It's a day that ends with a "y"

That makes you a zeptonode. You get to watch a third-generation copy of a VHS of the conference and drape a steamy towel over your head while your Mom hides your ipod.

Someone is sitting there gobbling up bitcoins at sub-120 prices. As soon as they've had their fill, that wall is gone.

Or possibly as soon as someone takes a nice big bite

Without the walls, the ask side is looking very shallow.

I'm thinking it should be possible to come up with some heuristics for how reliable bids and asks are based on how much and how far from the price they are based on historical data. Then it should be possible to generate a wall chart by removing low-confidence bids and asks. May have to give that a try.

Until they're not.

I am currently archiving it but my /home is running out of space quickly so I need to work something out. Unfortunately, Gox returns a lot of data, most of which I don't use. I'm thinking of finding a way to strip that out (this would also speed up the generation of the chart since JSON-> Perl hash is fairly slow.

Though even with that, I don't actually retain enough data. Simply having the bids and asks isn't enough, I need the actual trades also. I think I'd best work out how to do socket.io for that though.

I'm gzipping everything. Mostly it's just time to add more space.

Looks like it's time to take Grandma's wooden leg down to the pawn shop again...

FTFY

Tis but a fleshwound!

Why go against tradition?

You are making a lot of hard assertions based on your now self-admitted (and quite frankly wrong) limited understanding. That is where the dumb is.

There's really not much of a legal gray/grey area. It's not like Bitcoin is the first dollar-alternative (if anything, the dollar is something of a latecomer to the game) and businesses have been operating internationally since prehistoric times.

With that said, the US does have some f*ed up tax laws it might be possible to fall foul of for the unwary but in general terms, this stuff is pretty well understood by now.

I want in on this guarantee. How are you backing it?

Are you even aware that words have meanings?

Choo choo, motherfucker!

Not sure. Thought it was just a failure to upload but there was no png created. I'm running manually.

Ah, bad data from Gox causing a crash.

Sorry guys, not sure what's up with ChartBuddy. Oddly, I can't get connected to see what's up either so I'm not sure how he is able to post.

Something could come along that's better than Bitcoin but I happen to think that based on the Bitcoin design, that would be a very hard thing to do. Many of the alt-coins are based on some very odd beliefs about reality and economics (some of which happen to be mainstream but that will just allow their notions to be proven fallacious in a free market). Bitcoin has it's issues right now but most of those are pretty easily solvable. There's no need to run a full client, just look at Bitcoinspinner for example. Payment addresses add a lot of complexity at the moment but that can fairly trivially be solved by mapping email addresses or domain names to public keys. In fact it would be fairly trivial to write an app which would allow you to enter an email address and an amount of bitcoins and the bitcoins be stored in a temporary wallet to be collected by the recipient at their leisure (if this hasn't been done already).

Many Bitcoin issues stem from the fact that it's simply not big enough yet to make it worthwhile to have the kind of infrastructure that it will eventually need. That doesn't mean it won't be there. Some of us remember no Paypal, no Ebay and Amazon just sold books and Archie and Gopher were not just footnotes.

But consider how long "Todays prices" would last if someone tried to cash out hundreds of millions of dollars worth of bitcoins. Many of the issues would be issue for the alt-coins too and since some of the issues are due to solid design, where they are not issues for other coins, that is likely because unfortunate compromises have been made in the design. If you just want something simple to use, Paypal and credit cards are there (for their faults, which are many, they are very easy to use).

A little patience is in order. I am sure there is much in the works that we will not be aware of until it launches. I suspect much was started in 2012 but it takes time to go from idea to design to implementation to testing to release.

Ironically, the thing probably most holding Bitcoin back now is the weaknesses of the methods it was designed to supplant. Payments are reversible, governments control banks. Surely, one day it will break free from that constraint but in the meantime, solving this issue would be a real killer app.

Do we have any independent confirmation that the supernode conference actually happened?

Or 5-20% smaller (effectively the same thing)

True. Norman Lamont vs George Soros. Guess who came out the multi-billionaire?

Animated movies would be pretty cool. But animated gifs consume a huge amount of space and not everyone has a high bandwidth connection. That would be better done as an application but would not be able to be embedded in the page (it may be something that I would do at another time).

I didn't want to smooth as that could hide features. Also filling. If a wall pops up, anything behind it would not be visible. It's the difference between powerpoint-style MBA pretty picture stuff and presenting data accurately. Though I do agree that the charts are not useful for technical purposes but there are excellent services like bitcoinity for that. They are more supposed to be a way to view wall movement over time and because before, someone would post asking for charts every couple of hours.

I'll post up a poll sometime to see if it's worth continuing with ChartBuddy. I know some people like it and it's easy to hit ignore but I know it's not appreciated by everyone also.

Edit: I see there's a poll. I'll abide by that.

Interesting point. Part of the reason I wrote ChartBuddy was the hope that having movement be visible on an ongoing basis would help spark conversation. That doesn't particularly seem, to have been the case though. Then again, we have seen a whole lot of stability recently (coincidence or conspiracy? )

Fair comment. I'm not really sure there's much could be done to improve it though. I was thinking of making the rotation dependent on the price change over the course of the hour but don't think that would be immensely helpful.

I guess the question is, do we need an hourly chart and if so, what form should it take? Something like bitcoinity with maybe the 3D smaller and inset just for illustrative purposes? I don't know. I do know whatever I do won't be able to make everybody happy

My original thought was for the chart to be posted at the top of every page (or, at least, as close as possible). That was for a simple 2d chart though. The 3D complicates things as that would mean compressing or stretching the time axis over the period of time which is straightforward from a programming point-of-view but would likely make the charts even more difficult to understand.

The problem with 2 is the unintended consequence. If there have been no posts for 8 hours, do you compress all 8 hours into one graph? Post 8 charts?

Maybe I should just make chartbuddy invokable. Call him and he'll post

Or how about if there are any major wall changes in the past hour? That would be a little more tricky to write but not overly so. (Actually pretty trivial to write but it's all in the definition).

I believe it would not be so useful as the human eye has issues with color. It is typically only useful for certain things. Feel free to prove me wrong or I may give it a try myself sometime.

ChartBuddy does two passes through the data, the first to determine the dollar scale. You would want to do something similar for 3d or have something else that strongly suggests motion in the dollar axis.

Next chart will be zero z rotation. We'll see if that helps. (I'm suspecting it will actually be worse since there is no perspective)

That's tricky as mtgox only supplies a subset of data and it looks like 110 was sometime in, sometimes out. I have no control over that. Obtaining the full market data is only allowed every 5 minutes.

Also, my Z scale is fixed. I chose that because, on bitcoinity, for example, the auto scaling means that increased bids and asks can look almost exactly the same as decreased bids and asks. One of my grumbles about financial types is that they tend to tight-zoom on any feature they're interested in making tiny bumps look as dramatic as huge swings. With that said, it may be time to tweak the depth scale a little.

Mediocre rise, possibly masked by noise?

Comprehend this

Threw in a little (faux) perspective. It brings the older bids & asks inwards and helps separate them a bit.

The really funky picture earlier was just a little too much perspective.

I disagree. But I am open to being convinced by being shown an example.

Sorry. Bumming round Southern Florida at the moment. Thought I had cleared enough space...

What is this originally from?

Good thing they were wearing leather.

The US dollar is king but there's a lot of countries that wish that it weren't. Of course, actually trying to do something about it will cause problems with the country which prints it like it's going out of fashion.

Certainly you're not incorrect in many aspects, the US is certainly going to attempt to go after Bitcoin seriously at some point. The question really is how soon and what the outcome actually will be. We could point to similar examples; prohibition, the war on drugs to look at possible futures but there's really no good way to tell and making naked assertions just betrays a strong naivety. After all, can you see Google in this picture?

Bitcoin can't. And that's its strength. There's already plenty of regulated currencies around. Good luck with those. Buy your wheelbarrow quick before it costs more money to buy one than it can hold. Or just put a bitcoin aside.

Something else the US government said:

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.mtgoxlive.trader&hl=en

Not that I'd advocate fiddling with a phone in traffic.

Exchanges are not Bitcoin.

The problem with Bitcoin is fiat.

Government will just take everyone's hotdogs and store them in a warm shed while they rot. Then tax them to pay for the cost of doing so.

Even I'm getting fed up with ChartBuddy right now. Though I'd still like interesting changes to be included. Anyone got any good ideas on what would make a chart worthy of posting in the thread? Bear in mind that Chartbuddy actually isn't aware of the price (Though possibly he should be).

Bitcoin was released about a month ago (score 1 for a decentralized currency).

This is a shame. One of the attractive things about Bitcoin to me was the possibility of low cost currency conversions. If Gox is just running it through a bank and passing on the charges, that, quite frankly, sucks.

Congratulations, you just rolled back about a century of physics.

I was referring to the "future" part of your claim.

Indeed. Consider where the market manipulators get their profits from.

My feeling is that you might have been better off not giving your money to a company that has done so much harm to the Bitcoin community. There are other ASIC options out there. But your choice.

I'm afraid I'm seeing prof7bit's side of things here.

y=exp(x)

x=log(y)

Not that nerdy. You can't take cos of a value with units.

No. Adding a constant before taking the log of an exponential function distorts the curve. You would only add a constant if the exponential was starting from an offset (to counteract that offset).

If there is an offset in the bitcoin price (unlikely but possible), there is absolutely no reason to assume it is $1.

Oh, for sure. I just don't agree with "We add 1 because it's the correct thing to do".

I'm game for it. If you're looking at base notation, I seem to recall having used [for example] loge(x) and log10(x). Obviously, it is not standard notation but a compromise for a text-based medium.

I believe prof clarified things a little at one point and sarc continued to assert the incorrect thing as correct [ log(x+1) ].


No disagreement there. The exponent definitely changed. The question is whether it is a bubble or represents a different phase of Bitcoin's growth. I'm holding on to mine...

It would have quite an effect when the price was really low (think around $0.1)

Consider that x is not unitless. Now, when you do logs, that tends to factor out - log(x*y)=log(x)+log(y). Even though you logically can't log a unit, it just kinda falls out because you're looking at the shape. But you *must* have units agree for addition. Hence sarc has log($x+$1). Why $1? What if we price the Bitcoin in cents? Is it now x+1 or x+100? What about Euros? Lira? Litecoins?

I think sarc may be misapplying this from another modelling technique.

OMG. People might actually learn something about the lines they're drawing all over the place. 

Which is to say, it would make older bitcoins look significantly more expensive, decreasing the estimated size of the exponential growth and making the projected price lower.

True. It's good to have an idea why they're meaningless though.

Wrong OS.

Until your customers can't afford your prices because their income has been devalued.

It's not about the business being a good investment. It's about debasement of the currency.

Wrong way, Bitcoin

oda.krell is the guy who fought the Gorgon, right?

Speculators and traders thrive on volatility. Volatility is not good for bitcoin. Lack of volatility causes speculators to exit. Speculators exiting causes price to drop. Could be a good sign for the long-term health of bitcoin (I won't say "bullish").

Bitcoin needs to build fundamentals. That is what will drive its success.

I don't mean to disparage speculators but I think there is likely such a thing as excess liquidity at times.

Exactly. And just like with the housing market, there can be too much of it around. Of course, if the governments didn't print so damn much of it...

I think he meant "mourning"

When in danger, when in doubt,
Run in circles, scream and shout.

It will always be in danger. Even if it looks safe for now (which it doesn't IMO), that doesn't count for much if it looks like BTC might actually be some threat to the dollar or even just a change in the administration or makeup of the elected bodies.

Hmm. Might not be impossible. Maybe a firefox plugin.

You need to follow along for a while too. Many of the people claiming to be getting it right all the time are like the gambler who thinks he's ahead because he made the big score but discounts all the times he didn't do so well.

If this is true then Bitcoin would and should fail since it is the antithesis to regulation.

If you don't like coffee, you don't drink tea and then complain that it doesn't taste like coffee enough.

I do.

The biggest threat to regulation is Bitcoin

Would have been more punchy if you'd included the "kicking down the door" gif.

The big speculators are easy to beat. Just don't play their game.

Hold. And/or just buy what you need, when you need it.

Government currency manipulation... You may want to ask this guy about that...

Don't do this in the UK.

Nah, I'd still buy some cheap coins.

If my pockets are deep it's only because my pants are so old I wore out the bottom of the pockets.


(That's my story and I'm sticking to it)

CPI released in 5 days. Not likely to have an effect though probably.

Haha, fantastic image. Guns held, gangsta-style in one hand, smartphone in the other...

Antiques


Edit: Am I the only one here?

I think at this stage, you need to explain how it is inconsistent and what your definition of "criminal" is.

malum in se vs. malum prohibitum

It's not really useful as what people believe of the near future price will be factored into the current price.

The dictionary and the rest of the world appear to disagree with your use of words. But, of course, you are quite free to wardrobe any crimson that you tarmac.

It should even out over time in ways which will depend on availability of funds. Some people will be able to move funds between exchanges and make profits that way.

It's my opinion that moving away from stocks paying dividends has done much to remove useful indicators from the market.

Someone was buying at 265.

BTC is a little safer since it only needs an internet connection to withdraw it, not a bank. It's definitely true you need to be wary though.

Quotes tend to work best when you use the same words that the original person actually said.


WRT the actual quote you mangled, I actually think it was a pretty good catch by Bush. Can you imagine what the media would have done with a clip of him actually saying "shame on me"?

Looks bearish to me.

Maybe they decided to the some vacation. Standard vacation time in Europe *starts* at about double what is typical in the US.

No dude, you don't understand. We're going to get a guy with a black turtleneck to hold it.

It's 100% correct 30% of the time.

I think we have to be careful with the psychiatry thing. There clearly are people who are so far gone they need help.Especially if they are likely to harm others and possibly if they are likely to harm themselves. On the other hand, there does seem to have been a tendency to broaden the net and take in people who simply don't fit the cookie cutter (though there has always been some of that I guess).

Ah, an easy "out", always the hallmark of a something solid. Seances work too but not if you don't believe.

You think gold can't vanish?

If you buy gold vouchers, they could turn out worthless.

If you have physical gold, it could get stolen.

If you have physical gold, this:

Obviously, if your TA doesn't work, you're not doing it right.

I'm kinda surprised nobody has juxtaposed these before...

Possible conclusion? Someone wants to cash-out but are not in that much of a hurry. They are happy to take their time getting 100/piece but aren't fearful of the price falling rapidly and being left with a lot less. When this person or persons are done, the price will rise again.

It's not even a question for me. Sooner or later, the US govt and Bitcoin *will* have a face-off.

See also shedload and metric shedload.

This is how it starts. First the fiddling with things that don't add functionality, next selling the site to some big company that tries to monetize the site. Then starts the exodus.

But bear in mind that in these circumstances, buy pressure at Gox translates to sell pressure at other exchanges. Basically, there's not much of a good deal to be had here unless you are willing to convert your BTC to $ at Gox and trust that you'll be able to get your $$$ out at some point (or buy cheap BTC at the other exhanges).

In any case, I would suggest that Gox's now traditional aversion to communication would make me very hesitant to have anything to do with them.

http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/1348/whats-the-link-between-the-moon-and-menstruation

You need to get a healthy dose of skepticism (and likely read a quantum physics book).

You tend to see this when the price moves. The movement "eats" into the side it moves into making it look steep. Many orders are cancelled automatically (and other new ones placed) but it can take a while for those trading manually to adapt to new circumstances.

Whatever this image is, it's being blocked by my company's web filter as a virus has been found on the website. Just so you know.

MAL/HTMLGen-A

Good luck. Even going to the bathroom is not safe around Bitcoin.

Definitely. I think the way it's changing is more indicative than how it actually is. Shallow depth can mean to take less notice of price changes too. I think it might be possible to factor out some of the orders which are likely to be fake but that's more work than I can devote right now.

The best bet might be to start a small bank like a credit union that doesn't deal directly with Bitcoin but is designed to support Bitcoin businesses where they need to touch fiat. Maybe make investments be in $ but fees and dividends be in BTC

They may not *need* the cash but they certainly feel they can make use of it otherwise they wouldn't be speculators. Liquidity is pretty essential for making money.

Hence the supernode secret handshake.

You won't know until/if you sell. That's the ultimate truth.

This guy didn't.

It's worse. Government is actually paying banks not to lend the money out.

More info here:

http://www.samizdata.net/2010/06/money-supply-th/

Your posting on this is the first I've heard about it. Nice one IRS. I guess I'll be checking my account balance history this evening. Like someone else said, "Land of the free".  

Just change the torch to a whip and call it done.

Ripple will either end with a whimper, as people realize what a bad idea it is, or with a bang, as people find out what a bad idea it is.

No. I'm keeping hold of them. Right now, they're not worth much and there's a reasonable possibility that I'm wrong.

Who knows, they might even be worth quite a lot before they implode.

Possibly not a bad idea. I certainly found out that leaving funds in an exchange can be less than ideal. But I think Tradefortress has adequately exposed the issues with Ripple. It's a debt based system that relies on trusting people to a degree that's not really safe.

Heck, even your best friend may not be a good person to trust compared to a well established business. Family is typically even worse. A well established business depends on reputation to continue trading. Your brother? He'll always be your brother.

People *are* morons. And assholes too. And greedy.

There has been a strong history of individualist thinking throughout the west. Unfortunately, we seem to be in a period where collectivism has come to dominate everything since, as has been said, between the world wars. It cannot stand but it is hard to predict (and somewhat scary to attempt to) how the situation will be rectified

Strictly speaking, the axis are whatever you name them. So price, time and depth.

I'm not sure what I labelled them for projection purposes. x is price, certainly. I think z is depth and y time. I use matrices to do the projections so x,y,z is somewhat irrelevant.

Not quite sure what you mean. I really should add the price to the chart thought.

Make sure your towel is handy.

Don't know why they wouldn't have been getting out at 150+ on the way up to 266. Greed maybe?

It's just the bubble deflating. I hope it doesn't have much farther to go but any damage was done months ago. Now we need to get to where we should be and let the other parts of the economy build what they need to.

bearhavior?

A truly functional currency of any kind allows people to decide for themselves how best to utilize it and doesn't try and manipulate them into any prescribed set of behavior.

Or have we missed the various bubbles and misery from the ensuing crashes that fiat inflation has caused?

Heck, if you want, I can write you a piece of software that will siphon 3% of your bitcoins off to me each year. Then you should be good, right?

I think we're in for a long slide barring any good news. Right now, to be honest, I wouldn't buy above 60. I want to say it's worth more but I think that putting one's money where one's mouth is gives an honest assessment.

Reminds me vaguely of this:

I think he meant 180 m$

Fireworks cancelled due to rain here. And flash flood warnings. Might be a good night to go canoeing.

Last time someone said this picture was flipped. I gave it some time to see if I was missing the joke but can't come up with anything. Could someone explain?

Hand-coded. I don't believe I have data going back to April unfortunately.

"Free William"

Ideally you'd want something interactive so you could scale and rotate and maybe playback over an accelerated timescale. That couldn't be integrated into the page though.

I'm actually intending to start calculating the deltas to help save the huge amount of data I'm having to store. I'll see if we can't generate a couple of charts to see what they look like.

People speculate on traditional currencies all the time. It's how Soros made his money.

I would have settled for $60. But I'm not fussed about it. Though the currency I would have bought them in has fallen 7% against the dollar since then so it would have been a double good buy to have got in.

It may be. There's an awful lot of bitcoins owned by relatively few early adopters. If Bitcoin is to succeed, a large chunk of those bitcoins need to be extracted from those early adopters and spread amongst the general population.

I have no problem with them getting rich. And that's where the speculation comes in to a degree. Speculation raises the price (at certain points), allowing the holders to "cash in" on their foresightedness.

I do have to say that I'm not a big fan of the manipulation but that is something that will hopefully (I believe it will) resolve itself in time.

It's all just the free market at work. If Bitcoin can't handle it, it doesn't deserve to succeed.

This is the point though. How much can a few Satoshi be worth when there are several people out there holding tens (hundreds?) of thousands of bitcoins? How much is the Mona Lisa worth if I have a warehouse full of them out back? Speculation encourages large holders to release some of their funds for profit before doing so would devastate a mature market.

Volatility now or catastrophic volatility later. Fortunately not your (or anybody's) choice.

The number of bitcoins must cover the whatever market they are being used for. The fine divisibility of Bitcoin means that this is not a logistical issue but if some dude is holding 5 times the value of the world economy in his wallet, things get tricky.

I think having to live a life encourages spending. Definitely a good time to be accumulating bitcoins in my book. I'm not speculating right now but if I were, I'd be aiming to have more bitcoins at the end of the month than at the beginning, whatever my strategy.

There's a caveat to that though. Not necessarily. Consider diamonds. de Beers has a stockpile that's enough to supply the world diamond market for three years. Yet starry eyed young men are still coaxed to spend several months salary on what, at heart, are some quite useless rocks due to a tradition that was invented by... de Beers' advertising agency.

So despite what I've said before and though I still think it's better for Bitcoin to be more widely held and spread, there's still a good chance that it would succeed if not.

Why do you want to encourage spending? Need to destroy some of that huge amount of cash you've printed up and given to your banker friends by getting the people they lend it to to feed it into some bubble or other?

We won't even be putting different people in charge. We'll just be removing an option they use to exploit the people they're "in charge" of.

Here's where the rich have the edge: You put $10 in your wallet tonight, in the morning, it's worth $9 cause the government has printed up a bunch of cash and given it to their rich banker friends. Bitcoin works against that.

You know where milk comes from, right? You know what those animals are fed, right? You know how much oil is used to support the growth of those crops, right? Then you know how all that stuff is moved around, right?

OK. 1/2way there.

Bitcoin went down because someone printed up a bunch of them? If not, your version of logic differs significantly from what is accepted by those who use it correctly.


The point is misallocation of resources. It may actually be optimal for people to keep their money rather than spend it in fear of having it stolen from under them. Resources consumed without genuine want or need are wasted.

I could probably generate a nicer looking thumbnail now that I look at it.

No, no more triple digits for 2013. Or is it 300k$/BTC. I can never remember.

In the spirit of predictions being proven wrong, "We'll not see 250 again in 2013".

Waits...

I have some ideas. Bear with it for now.

Withdrawal delays=chance of not seeing your hard-won money again
Deposit delays=find a different investment venue for your dirty fiat.

Totally different issues.

Oh no, missing bottom... Tragedy... Meanwhile, the people setting the price already have their money there.

It had to be shrunk because the people who read this thread have beady eyes.

I think someone just deleted a whole bunch of posts from this thread.

That's different from notifications. But I agree it is annoying. Newer versions of this forum software do this properly.

I have a clock which projects the time on the wall in the dark. I've considered wiring it to display BTC price.

I smell a challenge. Let me add it to the bottom of my projects list (fetches 3" thick stack of paper)

The reality doesn't matter, the perception does.

That's the problem with mining. It's filled with irrational actors. If you're looking to make a profit, you'll be competing with people (like me*) who will mine even at a loss. It might have worked for a while when hardware to hash was rare but now it's out there and cheap and you can't even hope to resell it for alternate use later.

Supply and demand dictates that this means miners end up operating at marginal profits or none at all. The only wildcard is the future price of Bitcoin. If it rises as it should, it turns into a good investment for early adopters. Of course, if everyone is expecting high prices later, that increases the loss miners are willing to mine at. Miners who are operating in this zone are likely to hold since an immediate sell means immediate loss (or they may be believers in which case they are holding simply to have later. Not everyone needs to realize short-term profits on their investments).


*I do a little mining on the side as a hobby but it's insignificant.

Well, if the price gets high, it would make sense to sell to lock in profits. But if that's what people were doing, the bubble would not have been quite so crazy.

What they are doing with those coins should be fairly easy to analyse. I believe there is a site out there that shows how long coins are stagnant for.

I don't thing he's going to announce anything outrageous (just "We're still going to keep stealing your savings at the same rate") so no effect.

Solution coming soon. I'm in the middle of putting together a 3d printer so don't have time to implement my simple but quite brilliant plans.

Ah, tea on the lawn. The sound of willow on leather. Summer dresses. Small boys with jumpers for goal-posts. Isn't it though? Mmmm?

Amusingly appropriate: No income tax, no VAT, no money back, no guarantee...

One thing's for sure, the governments of the world are incapable of preventing themselves from printing more money. Even if they wanted to, they've gone too far to stop. With all the problems with the economy(s) at the moment, they can't even stop spending more money, let alone spend less to allow the real economy to catch a breath and recover.

You may feel that that is relevant to Bitcoin or not but it's certainly is something to bear in mind.