All posts made by rpietila in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 1886237 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
With your graceful permission, I will repost here my
recent findings.
Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give
BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.
2.
Post 1886412 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
With your graceful permission, I will repost here my
recent findings.
Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give
BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.
Oh, ok so you say if Ƀ surpasses the $300,000 mark in 2013 $$, we should sell? Thanks for the heads up
I kind of appreciate your argument but don't agree on the outcome as there will always be a speculative aspect to it. 7.11 billion people? Hey, I have some extra money and will speculate on the next 8 billion also wanting ɃɃ, so the value should be $600,000.
Oh no please, that's why I said
read the analysis first. Adding 8 billion people will likely
not change the outcome.
3.
Post 1887533 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Ok I read it again assuming I must have skipped that part but I don't see it. Where in your analysis is the argument that the value of Bitcoin would not go up if it was the one world currency for twice as many people than before?
As you can see, I employed quite few sources, just shot from the hip. What can be deducted from my analysis (given enough insight) is that a mere speculation of
anything happening, and the following short squeeze on physical bitcoins, will not cause a rise in bitcoin's value, rather a
fall of it.
Preposterous? No. As you withdraw physical from the market, the discount rate rises. The rise in discount rate is punishing
you, since you give up a larger gain than would otherwise be the case, when holding bitcoins instead of holding real bills. The discount rate should be about 2% APR in the base case, so you do not have an incentive to try to corner the bitcoins. If you do, you enrich the others in your own expense. It is like buying high, selling low. And you don't have enough money anyway when
BTC1 is valued to equal a suburban house...
When the population actually reaches 15 billion, this may coincide with the rise of purchasing power of 1 bitcoin, but it will happen over so many years that you will die of boredom first.
4.
Post 1896146 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Seems like a rocky road but so far the trend has generally been up. Started the day at ~120-ish, and now its $124-ish. It'll be nice if we can break the $137 level though. That's key.
124/120 gives you 3.3% per day.
With such boring rate, we will reach my target of $300k by...
...Christmas?
Yes.
This year.
5.
Post 1896181 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
"Mankind's biggest failure is our inability to understand the exponential function"
Never before in the history of mankind, has this skill come so handy.
Wtf "skill", excel just churns out the numbers, "it almost isn't sporting, is it".
6.
Post 1896637 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Seeing a fourth green candle makes me think that we are out of the bear trap.
Its gonna take at least 7 to convince me.
By that time we are overextended, and a recoil is due. Just like after the 7 consecutive red candles.
Buy
low. Bitcoin is anyway headed to $300k, or zero. What exactly do you gain, by momentum trading?
7.
Post 1901229 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Must read, clarifies your thoughts on the price (3 min only).The "double auction" method described, is the way I also would solve the fiat/BTC problem. Coupled with a Dealer Network, where only the members have access to the auction, and the general public either buys from them OTC or uses the real-time exchanges, which are relegated to a marginal "casino" role, where the bulls and bears both win, only sheep get slaughtered.
Long term transfer of coin-denominated wealth would go the route of "large private holds -> Dealer Network (most of these by design have large holds themselves and may therefore easily unload their own holdings) -> paper wallets of the new adopters".
8.
Post 1901431 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
You do realize that you are in a community where any service operator who can't achieve more than 99.999% uptime will get crucified on the cross of shame and be spitted on?
Geeks don't give a damn about your fancy order-matching idea, and how a real world exchange should operate, if you dare to entertain with the idea of an exchange not having to process orders real-time every second 24*7, you will get strapped of your badge of nerdiness and ostracized forever.
The world does not need authoritative bitcoin prices any more than every 8 hours. This is more than 1000 times per year, ff'ss! (I may be wrong, since 640k indeed was not enough to contain the blockchain!)
There will be no real time exchange in my system at all. For that, you will need to visit the casinos, where I will continue to play with my
BTC1,000 playstash whenever I feel like, as do all my friends, enriching themselves in expense of the sheep. Not that I needed to be enriched any more, or even that the shearing of the sheep was fun, but all this is required to keep the buzz on Bitcoin going. Expect
more scandals!
I have already taken measures, how to survive the coming ostracision. I only need to take 76% of the network with me. If you want to join my Bitcoin shadow devteam, drop a PM!
9.
Post 1901548 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Are narcissists allowed to go on the joke thread?
Sorry.
The brag part was bordering off-topic.
10.
Post 1901976 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
The spirit of the Wall Observer cannot be quenched. I feel we are entering an interesting new age, gentlemen.
11.
Post 1905626 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
I was quoted $200 for such a service. (I did not order it.)
12.
Post 1906757 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
That's right. Just sell - my wire only clears after several hours, so you have plenty of time to take it to 80 now..
13.
Post 1908951 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Trading while intoxicated however, seems the same as drunk driving - a recipe for disaster. Do not drink and trade! Also I advise not smoking pot while trading - I note that Mt.Gox does not have a 'are you sure' confirmation dialog before accepting the order, and if the market is at 120 and you mistype and issue a sell limit for 12, it will in fact sell at 12 and not give you the market price - right?
The new hardcore is getting harder by the day...
Mt.Gox has its history of fulfilling market orders simultaneously from the buy and sell side, with a 30% spread.
From their own published data, I can read that 40k
BTC changed hands after the longer cooloff period, before the shorter one was announced, at an effective slippage of 10% on average.
For their own sake, I hope that this $300,000 did indeed end up in the lap of the legitimate counterparties of the trades. Even if not, it is not at all too late to amend the losers by returning the spread to them. My proposal would be that Mt.Gox calculates the 5-minute average of the trades during that period, and gives restitution to both buyers and sellers, if their trade was executed at a price which is disadvantageous compared to the 5-minute average. After all, they promised that the trades would be void of fees..
14.
Post 1910308 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
LOL somebody wants cheap bitcoins. Sell to him, if you prefer him to have them!
15.
Post 1912028 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Lol the "attacker" is rotflhao now.. How do you actually think, such an attack would be publicized like this?? Smoke and mirrors, somebody is in the last stage of his accumulation and tries to squeeze the last
BTC5k without rocking the price.
I would be stunned if it did not bounce back to about $128 in 2 hours, when people execute their held back buys...
At this point, if one buys
BTC2k, the hell is loose as everyone jumps in after the long period of quiet.
It is gonna break, and it's not gonna break down.
16.
Post 1912112 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Maybe a little spike as the idiots that bought into this story (ie sold coins) buy em back
Or how about nothing happens and it continues to be an extremely boring day ...
The volume has been low, ergo there are no idiots who sold their coins.
We are talking about
buys being delayed by 6-24 hours, nothing more, but
even this, when deployed, will raise us to $128 minimum, perhaps $135 or even a post-crash high, at the instant it starts.
Tuesday used to be a rally day...
17.
Post 1913980 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
10k to $120 and the 125 wall is being eaten..
18.
Post 1914032 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
nomnomnom, delicious 126.
Remember, there was no way anyone could have predicted this.
Ridiculous to think that fluoride would be
bad for your health, since they say it is good
19.
Post 1914719 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
This week is gonna be fun.
+1.
20.
Post 1919858 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
$115 never again, takers?
Reasoning:
I have charted the spot_price/ATH price over Jan-Mar, and I think the rally has already resumed. You can offer to bet with quite good odds that we will never cross 0.95*previous_ATH. And you win the bet with a surprisingly good probability. Chart it yourself, lol. I almost always bought at ATH during those months, since it was the least risky entry point.
The supply of people that think that we are in a bubble/denial/bear market/correction/consolidation/younameit is dwindling, and it's dwindling fast. Especially their economic share of the market is about to be crushed if they do not buy back soon.
Do you still see the people that sold out in February? Where are they? LOL, they made their $10k and are out for good. The next time they will hold bitcoins is when they receive their salary.
21.
Post 1927888 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Good luck to whomever just bought my coins and I hope you've bought your wall-climbing shoes: 16K+ $2 ahead.
It's been a great little run but we need to pause for breath (and new money).
You are right, expect short term buying opportunity at $133ish.. I would say, technically we should flashcrash there in 10 minutes and double-comfirm the short term bottom in 1-2 hours.
22.
Post 1928851 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:
- the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
- there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)
I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.
IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
I see what you did there - sold 700 coins at 147, and getting itchy about the buyback point not coming yet.
To bail out or not to bail out; that is the question.
Hint: do not bail out, it will crash to the prev. resistance, now support at $130-$135, I am 75% we get there in 24 hours. Relax and let the swing play out.
23.
Post 1929100 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
153!
Short the shit out of this false breakout dudes like a boss! Dont be sheep, sell like a man.
Disclosure: Sold
BTC772 at $153.
24.
Post 1930119 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
153!
Short the shit out of this false breakout dudes like a boss! Dont be sheep, sell like a man.
Disclosure: Sold
BTC772 at $153.
I thought you were perma ultra bull? Why do you think you can earn on day trades? As far as your posting history goes, you have lost money on day trading before. I don't mean any disrespect, I know you are and have made a lot of money on BTC but have you eraned on this kind of short term speculation??
Doing it just for the lulz.
25.
Post 1931752 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I got crushed today, $10,000s underwater. I don't think it is fun, and don't recommend shorting bitcoin.
Buy and hold.
Vladimir knows something you don't.
26.
Post 1931947 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I got crushed today, $10,000s underwater. I don't think it is fun, and don't recommend shorting bitcoin.
Buy and hold.
Vladimir knows something you don't.
Why the fuck would you short bitcoin. There's been tons of buying pressure and obvious selling pressure trying to contain it (ask walls, not actually people wanting to sell). There's been a zillion bullish indicators, if you're shorting bitcoin right now you're blind.
Y'know someone's got to sell, otherwise it is game over for the whole fiat economy, duh?
27.
Post 1932035 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I think even 30% per week is unsustainable. That's why I shorted when it shot up about 20% per day. Long term I make money if I stick to this strategy.
Forgive me for my pathetic attempts to talk the price down. I am better at the opposite:
"Study the price behaviour for 7/2010-6/2011 if you want to have a million dollars."
28.
Post 1932055 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
rpietila: PMed you...
Did not receive PM
Thank you all for taking care of me. I still have more bitcoins than most of you, and I feel fine. See my diary for details.
29.
Post 1932169 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I think even 30% per week is unsustainable. That's why I shorted when it shot up about 20% per day. Long term I make money if I stick to this strategy.
Forgive me for my pathetic attempts to talk the price down. I am better at the opposite:
"Study the price behaviour for 7/2010-6/2011 if you want to have a million dollars."
Well you are right on that point, 30% is unsustainable. However bitcoin has a habit of peaking and crashing a bit higher then it peaked/crashed before. I think the market is too young to really come away with any more knowledge about the market then your intuition can give you. Even the way the gox engine works this week is different from two weeks ago- and that stuff makes a big difference. The market isn't mature enough to know whats happening. Today it's worth a billion, but what will long term stability show it's worth? 100 billion? 500 billion?
Long term it is worth no more than $10,000 billion, and this is the most important thing to remember.
DO NOT BUY AT ANYTHING OVER $300K FOR THERE IS A REALISTIC RISK THAT IT IS A BUBBLE AND YOU LOSE.
You still have plenty of time to buy, as short-term anything over 30% per week is unsustainable.
That is 0.15% per hour, folks. Why would you buy after a 30% daily gain. I will not close my short at a profit for sure but I don't think we go to $200 today, LOL.
30.
Post 1932246 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
$10,000B market cap
31.
Post 1933632 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
RPIETILA HERE IS YOUR CHANCE FFS!
I just got back, what's the price? Should I have bought back already or you want me to do it now?
32.
Post 1933994 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I think today could have been the event horizon for me, I am still evaluating my experience over a good meal and wine. Will be back soon.
33.
Post 1935520 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
153!
Short the shit out of this false breakout dudes like a boss! Dont be sheep, sell like a man.
Disclosure: Sold
BTC772 at $153.
I thought you were perma ultra bull? Why do you think you can earn on day trades? As far as your posting history goes, you have lost money on day trading before. I don't mean any disrespect, I know you are and have made a lot of money on BTC but have you eraned on this kind of short term speculation??
Doing it just for the lulz.
Bought back at an average price of $144.
34.
Post 1935578 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
we got lucky mate
Nah it aint no luck, it is a +EV trading strategy. You can increase your trading position coins by 10% per week.
That compounded... soon your trading position is so big as to not able to effectively trade.
Then you start writing on the forum...
35.
Post 1935824 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
we got lucky mate
Nah it aint no luck, it is a +EV trading strategy. You can increase your trading position coins by 10% per week.
That compounded... soon your trading position is so big as to not able to effectively trade.
Then you start writing on the forum...
you didn't talk like that at some point today
it's easy to be general after the battle
I do it every week, sometimes it gives -100
BTC but usually I make money. It's like poker, if you hold the nuts, you win. But it is sound to always go all in with A-A even if the odds are something like 81%. It is +EV nevertheless, and wildly so. Just like bitcoin. Trade responsibly.
36.
Post 1935860 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Sentiment question: Is there anyone on this thread who has enough money?
I would define "enough" as:
- Bitcoin stash's price appreciation exceeds daily expenses by a factor of X
- Therefore no need to work
- Cannot spend it all even if spends 24/7.
SINGULARITY.
I'll soon post to my diary, how you can have unlimited money and give unlimited money to all your friends.
37.
Post 1936076 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Random threads give out random results. You need to use an established thread if your intention is to actually gather info.
38.
Post 1939888 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Interesting, how strong today sell off will be.
To me, it seems that we will likely not see $140.00 ever again.
39.
Post 1944518 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
LOL, I bought in with my speculative position. You may stop selling now, thank you
40.
Post 1951150 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I would play
lazy fat cat at this stage. If ever certain events occur, during the rest of the week, we are positioned to
make about 100,000mBTC, which will support our current operations for 48 hours. If not, we just continue our current operations without this support, since the
internal appreciation rate of our bitcoins is enough.
41.
Post 1959129 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
To me, it seems that we will likely not see $140.00 ever again.
This one was proven wrong. Although my previous call of $115 never again (uttered @ $122) likely holds.
Consider the current prices as a gift. The safest way to buy bitcoins is to aim to make an ATH with your purchase. Statistically that has the lowest probability of ever being visited again.
42.
Post 1959473 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
The price is not considered a bargain as its still remaining in this range..I'm betting for a black monday..
And your definition for "black" goes something like...
...it crashes through rpietila's support line of $115, goes all the way to $95, enabling rpietila to invest the proceeds of last week's OTC trades (about 700 grams of gold, 22 kg of silver, EUR 28k cash, 60k bank money) with 30% better exchange rate that he would otherwise get, and bounces back to barely above $110, closing the month with a +15% green candle.
Black indeed. I'm looking forward to it..
43.
Post 1961293 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Can someone explain to me why many people use millibitcoin instead of actual bitcoin? I saw some people talk about it but I still don't get what makes it 'better'? Isn't it essentially just BTC/1000?
The place of the decimal point is a GUI convenience, the Bitcoin software does not specify it. It deals in
satoshis; 1m
BTC = 100,000 satoshi.
Soon, everybody who does not use millibitcoin will be ousted the forum as non-believers
I did have a one-way brag offer to give 1,000m
BTC if I have not been instrumental in defeating the leading position of Mt.Gox in USD/BTC exchange in the next 12 months.
I had specified that the first one that writes an intelligent reply to
this article, will win the coin - sadly the offer was cancelled due to no intelligent replies in the stated 72 hours. (This does not automatically mean that Mt.Gox will
get to keep its position, however. The offer was not the only reason why I would like the trading to be diverted to the dealer network.)
44.
Post 1968575 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I am very bullish on the next week. It is possible that $200 will be breached. Every time bitcoin starts to rise in a serious way, the supply side just dries up, leading to an overextension and then retracement. Monday can easily see $160 but I don't think the post-crash high will be taken until Tuesday.
If anyone has coins to sell directly for bank wire, I am happy to buy them at current rate - 3% as my margin. Or I can buy goxmoney (seller buys coins, sends them to me, I bank wire). PM soon, it's late here
Or I can write puts for $120! Best of both worlds for you who don't want to sell and don't want to risk the downside!
45.
Post 1968664 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I am very bullish on the next week. It is possible that $200 will be breached. Every time bitcoin starts to rise in a serious way, the supply side just dries up, leading to an overextension and then retracement. Monday can easily see $160 but I don't think the post-crash high will be taken until Tuesday.
If anyone has coins to sell directly for bank wire, I am happy to buy them at current rate - 3% as my margin. Or I can buy goxmoney (seller buys coins, sends them to me, I bank wire). PM soon, it's late here
Or I can write puts for $120! Best of both worlds for you who don't want to sell and don't want to risk the downside!
Pulled my $137 sell order. Think I'm gonna put all my faith in this guy instead.
Why do you want to sell? You think it'll go lower?
46.
Post 1968736 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
You shouldn't let someone else suggesting you your trades.
Personally, I'm short.
I will always short after 20-30% runup in 12 hours. Most of the time it gives an opportunity to buyback.
But man -
now it's not the time to short.
47.
Post 1974157 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Thank you for taking care of my finances. I managed to buy BTC700 at about $134.5 so I am cool for now, and let the price rise.
48.
Post 1974828 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Thank you for taking care of my finances. I managed to buy BTC700 at about $134.5 so I am cool for now, and let the price rise.
Decent decision, 700 is all you've got? Wasn't that more like 2500 i' ve read somewhere?
I think he meant he just now added 700 more to his stack.
Nah, I was short
BTC774 from wednesday I guess... and because we spent the rest of the week in that posh hotel I did not have time to close the short. But the good thing is I sold for $153 and bought back at $135 so it's kind of good, considering that I made premiums on both ends also.
49.
Post 1975844 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I honestly was tempted to go to Finland to hang out and talk about BTC. I just don't have the time right now. (Also flying to Finland and finding out its nothing but a troll would suck hard)
Yeah I might lose a bit of money but meh. I will also get some fiat in the end and will buy some gold. Good to diversify just a bit.
I'm always looking for new BTC people to work with. yeah his style is a bit out there but if he wants to be a player and has the means then why not.
Hell look at MP, he has done okay:)
That deal might go through but it's still
a fact that he is liarUmm, I seriously hope that you were joking, since otherwise one of the following will happen:
A) You post here, today, a proof that I am a liar, and I feel so angered about the exposé that I have to finish you.
B) You do not have any proof, which of course does not prove that I am not a liar, but
proves beyond reasonable doubt that you are a douche.
Your call..
50.
Post 1975860 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I don't know what your intentions are, maybe you just have some mental problems but I hope people are smart enough to don't give a shit about your posts and not make 1% of their decisions based on utter crap and maniacal lies you're posting on this forum.
Ah sorry, I made two shorts the same day. One I shorted in Mt.Gox, the other was an OTC trade. At a point I was almost
BTC1,500 short of my confort level. Now I have bought both of them back. So sorry, I will not regard you as a douche if you likewise don't call me a liar. Peace?
51.
Post 1975885 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I don't feel comfortable telling that I can go short such a big amount, since that would lead to one of the following conclusions in the reader's mind, neither of which I want to express:
- I am more bearish on bitcoins than I say
- I am a playa who shorts a significant amount of bitcoins at will
- I have quite a number of bitcoins.
So just please, forget it. Since goat wanted to come public, it is OK. I bought from him, and I hope to get the wire out tomorrow. I am paying the 2.65M THB upfront, he will not need to send a single bitcoin to me before he's got the money.
52.
Post 1976142 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Someone please clean this crap up^^^^^
+1. Self-moderated thread is good if you actively use the [delete] button. Otherwise it will just bring you disgrace.
53.
Post 1976654 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Rally time!
I would give 60% that we will cross $150 today. At any rate the support in $135ish will hold.
Would be confident to buy now but no need I actually OTC bought
BTC100 @146, little bit dear but did not want to sell for such a small gain...
54.
Post 1977022 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
OK, wake me up when it hits $130, I will buy bitcoins/goxmoney/whatnot at a reduced rate then...
55.
Post 1977147 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
You're the only person in this section who's predictions i take seriously
Thank you for your kind words, sir.
56.
Post 1978624 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
If the "kiddie porn" on the blockchain news is true expect a rally.... downwards.
I am not sure if the haters have a vote, do they?
57.
Post 1981219 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I made
two infamous
BTC700-
BTC799 trades last week. One was at gox, the other was OTC. Let's split the banking system effect:
- I sell at the casino -> receive internal gox money -> banking system not affected (practically impossible to withdraw
already but we've got used to it, no big deal if it is cut altogether)
- I buy at the casino -> receive btc -> problem solved, bitcoin transfer not affected
- I sell OTC to my local friend -> he pays cash, gold, silver -> banking system not affected (he is still short EUR 7k from the deal and will need to deposit it physically this week as he has some issue with the bank)
- I buy OTC from goat -> now this is a tricky one since he needs to be paid in the local currency -> I spend several hours trying to pay in multiple installments to minimize the risk of bank default. The staff in the bank make it so difficult that I end up deciding to pay all at once, without escrow; too difficult, not worth my time, I trust goat, he trusts me, I don't trust bank and I really have a problem if the banks fail on this.
But so do they, it will be their last fail to screw both of us in front of the bitcoinworld. Nobody can trust the banks any more if they fail in this one. (This does not mean that they won't, however, but I never play with more than I can afford to lose to prove a point...)
So, my conclusion:
To me it seems that the
banking system has already played itself out of this game. In only one of the 4 transactions was it involved at all, and even there they acted like jerks who had been doing it for too long and wanted to be out. If it was convenient to have .999 metric gold in Thailand (which it isn't; they have both different purity and different unit) I would have probably sent it over by Fedex rather than bothering to call the bank.
Not that it was not difficult to send gold. You run into all kinds of trouble.. but after bitcoin, all the trouble that the world system heaps on you, will act
to their own detriment, not yours. By playing nice or ignoring you, they make themselves unimportant, since bitcoin works better. By fighting you, they can eat up hours of your precious time and make themselves sound like jerks, and everyone will read about it in Bitcointalk and wise up.
Banks, according to my observation, you have a precious little share in bitcoin transactions right now, and about to lose it all. Bitcoin user won't even notice when the last cord is cut. Bears better buy in. It's gonna be a ride from now as people are understanding
this (read it all, just recently pruned with a steady hand!).
58.
Post 1981354 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I'm not sure what either one of our stories have to do with banks or bitcoins. But there you have it.
I was astounded by your join date. You don't seem to be too smart, having spent here so long, still not understanding anything. Or was it just that you sold at the bubble pop in February 7th, 2013, and have a hard time adjusting your reality?
59.
Post 1982804 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Banks, according to my observation, you have a precious little share in bitcoin transactions right now, and about to lose it all. Bitcoin user won't even notice when the last cord is cut. Bears better buy in. It's gonna be a ride from now as people are understanding
this (read it all, just recently pruned with a steady hand!).
that "this" link is borked.
Corrected (it is my diary anyway, but now it's
a nice read after deleting 30 or so posts, which are no more that relevant).
60.
Post 1983536 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
If I wasn't all in, this would be a safe point to go
speculative long. (We intend to short it at higher levels today, perhaps $180.)
EDIT: I mean it'll have to breach $150 first but I kind of see it getting there
61.
Post 1984696 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
It is good to remember that there are no fake bid walls, but fake ask walls abound...
It seems quiet, but be ready for serious action to the upside any time from now. If the sellers are not staring their screens, there is not much for sale once we clear the resistances of $167 and $267.
62.
Post 1985006 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
We might not see much activity these days, May 1st is holiday in many countries and here in Bosnia particularly it is a traveling holiday, people move a lot during these days.
Oh, well, if Bosnia isn't on board we might as well all pack it in
Finland is out also. I don't mean we would significantly contribute to the "bid" side anyway, but the asks will certainly be withdrawn, about now. Roni will only be able to cap the price for about 2 hours more now, and even then his limit is
BTC300.
Finland is most Vladimir club per capita in the world fyi. I personally know 7
63.
Post 1985173 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I'm a whale. What do I do next?
Sing!
My
voice instructor actually visited the hotel last weekend, but we did not have opportunity to practice. She bought some bitcoins though
64.
Post 1985317 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
It seems to be going up or down.
I pay 2:1 that it is up.
65.
Post 1985576 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
hmm looks like up to me and 2 to 1 odds seems about right.
No I'm not gonna bet
you BTC5,000 though.
66.
Post 1985624 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
hmm looks like up to me and 2 to 1 odds seems about right.
No I'm not gonna bet
you BTC5,000 though.
I'm agreeing with you. I think we have a 2 to 1 shot of breaking out of that triangle on the up side.
I'll have to see what happens tomorrow as I'm off to bed.
Night all.
G'night. Seems that we both lost though
67.
Post 1986182 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I think $137.5 will likely hold. If not, it is just more coins to the strong hands, and the runup will be that faster..
The cup is now quite tilted to the downside. Expect immediate bounce to about $141.
68.
Post 1986419 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Trying to accomplish? Nothing, people are selling...
Sorry I have a hard time trying to "predict" micro-movements, since they are completely uninteresting (except from the daytrading point of view which I do admit is the topic of the thread).
Big boys run the casino. Don't buy high, sell low for some "momentum" considerations, since it is all painting of the tape and other tricks.
Buy 100% into bitcoin. Then send 10% of your coins to an exchange of your choice, and always sell at the very highest point, trying to buy back lower. Only reasonable way to trade bitcoin (imho) is to short it. Going speculative long is waste of time. Be all in, and drop 10% when it is going too high (after 20-30% daily move this is pretty much the case, and if you are nimble, even 10% can be traded with grace and ease).
*painting the tape = selling to yourself with high volume after you have moved the price to a direction of your choice, to convince the market that something has happened to warrant a new price.
69.
Post 1992789 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Oh you people of little faith! About 1.5 million bitcoins (of the 11 million existing) are in the speculative weak hands. We owners of the larger stash, are busy preying on your smaller stash, and constantly buying more and more of it. Currently bitcoins
are hardly even getting distributed in a serious way, since I and the likes of me can still easily live in luxury + earn more
bitcoins doing it.
This is mathematically impossible to continue. Bitcoin price will rise
I can write you puts at $115 if you like. I am able to write for
BTC500 at the moment. The price will be decided on by case basis. Preferably just one counterparty thank you.
70.
Post 1993219 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
this means bullish for the long-term, which i can agree with. unfortunately we are severely short-term overbought, are in the midst of a minibear, and are encroaching on an extremely important mid-term support. if you really want the market to do what you want, take your cash and put a wall at $120, else we'll possibly crash right through later today.
Well, since I think the number of bitcoins is important, and not the price of them:
- I have already invested all I have, in bitcoin; a
BTC500 worth of puts written is the most I can do today.
- I could not care less if it crashed to $10; probably I would just work a little more (to earn more bitcoins as I can earn more per hour), and spend a little less time just living luxuriously for the testimony (which is the more expensive, the lower USD/BTC rate is, as costs are measured in dollars).
I will soon go to the spa wing. Nobody bit the offer for cheap puts
71.
Post 1993342 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
- I could not care less if it crashed to $10;
I do. Because if it ever got to that price again then it would be due to a major disaster with the Bitcoin protocol.
If the Bitcoin protocol goes beyond repair, we will develop a new coin, and the party will continue. I go to have a bath in the spa and then some dinner, see you in 2 hours!
72.
Post 1994004 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Wall at 120$ will be eaten today just like this:
Doesn't it bother you at all that you predicted a crash 2 days ago and it hasn't happened yet?
Not at all, it will happen sooner or later doesnt matter
You'd be a real whiz on the stock market, eventually ONE of the stocks you picked would be a success!
Or, a fail. Since what he is predicting is a
fall in the exchange rate.
Unfortunately for him, even if he does not give any timescale, he can
still be wrong on this one. Which is duly pathetic.
I, for example, don't think we will see $115
ever again, and for this reason I am willing to write the following puts:
---------------****************************************************************************************----------------
THE BUYER OF THIS PUT OPTION IS ENTITLED TO GIVE BANK ACCOUNT DETAILS, WHICH WILL BE USED AS FOLLOWS:
RPIETILA WILL BE BOUND TO SEND $115 USD TO THE BANK ACCOUNT SPECIFIED, SO THAT THE WIRE CLEARS NO LONGER THAN 7 BANK DAYS FROM THE RECEIPT OF BITCOINS IN THE ADDRESS:
1PtQHwwwucuRno6HfyGTemrQCgoSn5F4Hw
THE BITCOINS WILL HAVE TO BE SENT IN LOTS NO SMALLER THAN
BTC250, AND ANY BALANCE OVER
BTC500 WILL BE KEPT. THEREFORE THE MAXIMUM USD THAT RPIETILA IS BOUND TO SURRENDER IS $57500, IN EXCHANGE FOR THE RECEIPT OF 500 BITCOINS. THIS AGREEMENT IS IN FORCE FOR BITCOIN TRANSFERS EFFECTED ON OR BEFORE 30. JUNE, 2013.
---------------****************************************************************************************----------------
The above is an example text, the actual option will be some sort of verifiable private communication.
Takers, bids?
For
BTC100 I can sell right away..
Please do not use the following address for anything except to send the premium of these puts to me, according to further private communication between the buyer and me, the writer:
16nGk9anaXxJiGY48u9gtzmibAYhVWdyCd
73.
Post 1994069 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
I, for example, don't think we will see $115 ever again
Is this same supernode bullshitter who said we will never see 140$ again week ago...
You really enjoy making a cunt off yourself though that is not really hard thing to do, you have it in yourself . What a pathetic moron you are, lol
If you are so sure of that bitcoin is going down, all you need to do, is:
- Pay me
BTC100
- Make sure you have enough fiat to buy
BTC500 when you believe it is time to sell them to me
-
- Profit
What a sorry douche you are, not possessing even
BTC100 and understanding that if you did, you could easily call me on this one. Now all you can do is drool on your keyb,
moron
Dixi.
74.
Post 1994084 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
i said it before and i'll say it again, reptileman, take your allegedly huge chunk of capital and park it at $120 if you want to have a chance at this bet.
i said it before and i'll say it again, arepo, I am all in since I don't believe these prices will last long. The offer above is the best I can do. The conference is there to replicate me into 15 copies, so that the world will have more fun and less need to be afraid of bitcoin going down.
75.
Post 1994289 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Umm.. more like:
---------------****************************************************************************************----------------
THE BUYER OF THIS PUT OPTION IS ENTITLED TO GIVE BANK ACCOUNT DETAILS, WHICH WILL BE USED AS FOLLOWS:
RPIETILA WILL BE BOUND TO SEND $115 USD TO THE BANK ACCOUNT SPECIFIED, SO THAT THE WIRE CLEARS NO LONGER THAN 7 BANK DAYS FROM THE RECEIPT OF BITCOINS IN THE ADDRESS:
1PtQHwwwucuRno6HfyGTemrQCgoSn5F4Hw
THE BITCOINS WILL HAVE TO BE SENT IN LOTS NO SMALLER THAN
BTC250, AND ANY BALANCE OVER
BTC500 WILL BE KEPT. THEREFORE THE MAXIMUM USD THAT RPIETILA IS BOUND TO SURRENDER IS $57500, IN EXCHANGE FOR THE RECEIPT OF 500 BITCOINS. THIS AGREEMENT IS IN FORCE FOR BITCOIN TRANSFERS EFFECTED ON OR BEFORE 30. JUNE, 2013.
---------------****************************************************************************************----------------
The above is an example text, the actual option will be some sort of verifiable private communication.
Takers, bids?
For
BTC100 I can sell right away..
Please do not use the following address for anything except to send the premium of these puts to me, according to further private communication between the buyer and me, the writer:
16nGk9anaXxJiGY48u9gtzmibAYhVWdyCd
76.
Post 1994331 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Isn't this the place to use all of your verbal wit to talk the price up?
77.
Post 1994361 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Isn't this the place to use all of your verbal wit to talk the price up?
Or down.
Depending if you are long or short.
Please specify the put option you are offering. Strike 115$, okay. When will they mature? Would you be willing to go through escrow?
It is fully specified, read above. Escrow (John K./zeroday) ok for the premium amount. Buyer pays all escrow fees.
78.
Post 1994477 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
If my calculations are right I would break even when bitcoin goes down to 89$?
I prefer to sell the 100BTC now, and buy myself 146 if it really goes down that far...
You are welcome to bid a lower price, or specify your bid in relation to the latest Mt.Gox price or absolutely whatever (by PM). I will now take some fresh air and my dinner should also be ready eventually.
79.
Post 1996092 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
There is no support below $115, until about $95. I am still selling the puts, with the strike at $115, and break-even point at $95.
No bitching about escrow. Everybody who has
BTC100 trusts me with that amount, and if not, you can use John (John K.) or zeroday, and pay their fee of about 0.5%.
The greatest LMAO is that the put is structured such that you actually need to sell me the coins. Fiat play is so last season
I don't give a shit of bitcoin going to $0.01 unless I am able to buy as many as I want at that price.
80.
Post 1996118 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
If somebody wants to take my puts, please sms me +358503235950 while I'm continuing my dinner.
81.
Post 1996160 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Actually my fibonacci analysis points to a capitulation move, consummating in $95 in the following 24 hours. So I will need to alter the conditions of the puts such that $115 put costs BTC125 per 500 face, and that I will write a new $95 put for BTC75 per 500 face. But sms only for the ones actually interested, sorry for polluting the thread but this is on topic since I can't buy more with my nonexisting fiat.
I can still sell about 10ozt of gold and 5,000ozt of silver for a fair price for BTC, sms me please if hurry, PM if not.
82.
Post 1996687 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
This is a capitulation. It is going to find support below $100.
83.
Post 1996726 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
$115 never again, takers?
Uhh...
that was a 1:1 bet that nobody dared to take. Now it's going to $95 and still nobody wants to play with me.
84.
Post 1996741 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
$115 never again, takers?
Uhh...
that was a 1:1 bet that nobody dared to take. Now it's going to $95 and still nobody wants to play with me.
If I wanted the price to go down, I would also send my coinz to Gox and set up a scare wall. It's so February 2013 that it amazes me how people still fall on it..
85.
Post 1996754 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
$115 never again, takers?
Uhh...
that was a 1:1 bet that nobody dared to take. Now it's going to $95 and still nobody wants to play with me.
You deleted my post!
Umm.. I can only delete posts in my own thread, and my counter says that 92.8% of visitor content is deleted, as well as 21.7% of my own posts
You think you are the elite 7%, try harder...
86.
Post 1996890 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
95 isn't happening guys, this was a clear red hot bear trap that work wonderfully.
we'll be heading back up now
so did you buy? if not, do you want to place a bet?
or are you just wasting everyones time with your garbage opinion ?
Kid, I would employ a certain politeness when addressing the OP.
87.
Post 1996909 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
This is a sucker rally dead cat bounce, we will not cross $125 before $100.
88.
Post 1996919 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
95 isn't happening guys, this was a clear red hot bear trap that work wonderfully.
we'll be heading back up now
87 before the end of the day (EST)
I was looking at 87 as next support.
1:1 escrowed with zeroday that 87 holds?
89.
Post 1996993 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
This is a sucker rally dead cat bounce, we will not cross $125 before $100.
Might be, but nobody with half brain gives a shit about your predictions anyway.
To be honest, I am wondering why your ignore tag is not yet yellow considering your lack of content, and fixation on me.
90.
Post 1997210 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Asks rising dramatically, bulls failing to get back past 120.
Beyond wanting to limit a bounce back, why else would someone put up 2-3-4k ask walls right after a sharp decline, right on the edge. They were way too big, way too consolidated to be bots. There were still enough bids walls if you actually wanted to sell you could have. Not to mention the ask walls came up right after the final coin dump to 105-110. You can explain away lots of coins being sold. I find it hard to explain away people aggressively pushing the ask wall preventing any serious bounce back.
Hush..
91.
Post 1997311 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
If you are selling coins, putting up an ask wall is just doing the exact same thing in the other direction. And you get to absorb some of the bounce back. (Noob here, correct me if I'm wrong)
Yeah but if the market just crashed 25%, you have 200k USD of BTC on MtGox, your first thought is "Put up 1.5k ask walls at $115 $118 $120?". You're just deterring a bounce back. If you're panic selling, you'd just sell them. And within 60 seconds of the coin dump? Who see's a crash and walls up the bottom? The size and aggressiveness of those ask walls isn't from people looking to sell into the bounce back. You want it to bounce back, your BTC is worth more. The only thing they do is help keep the price down.
shut up and buy. I would, but I felt that even $140 was so ridiculously cheap that I went all in.
Note to haters - I am an onion. "All in" does not mean that I have allocated all my possible funds into bitcoin. (In fact I have unlimited money but that is too wonderful for most of us to grasp.) If I say "all in" it generally means that I invested 100% of the position that I have allocated for fiat/bitcoin trade. If I say I'm "short", it means that I own money that I have speculatively sold in anticipation of a buy back.
The onion part means that if bitcoin surprises to the downside (as it did from $266 - I was expecting $100, but it went all the way to $50), I have more and more layers of gold and silver, precious things, and perhaps even fiat balances, to peel, and deploy speculatively. These I will sell after the overshoot is corrected, like I sold all of the speculative position bought at $51-$90, for $90-$147. Don't kill me on the exact numbers. I also trade for other entities than my personal position so actually it would be best to not listen to me at all.
92.
Post 1997446 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
stop talking about 87 or 95, support is here now, don't miss your chance
It needs to test $100, and by testing I mean, cross it. Short term I would put a limit buy order in $96-$99 range, that is the safest.
93.
Post 1997620 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
I also trade for other entities than my personal position so actually it would be best to not listen to me at all.
You should put that in your signature.
Yeah. Some people think that I can predict short term movements (which I generally don't, albeit I trade profitably). Some people think that I cannot predict the long term (which I do: with 50+% certainty bitcoin is going to $100k+ in 3 years). Suckers are wrong on both.
94.
Post 1997736 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
To call him the ringleader is to credit him with far too much intelligence ... snakes ain't that smart
I do object to his blatantly manipulative comments though, and as said before, ALL NEWBIES BE WARNED >>>> DO NOT TRUST THE REPTILE IN THE HOUSE
With nearly three weeks of experience you seem to be qualified to assess mine. Let me remind the others (for
you this might be a new thing) that I won (by popular vote) a public debate in January 2011, with the topic: "the monetary system of the future - silver or Bitcoin", against a person who was advocating Bitcoin. Now I have wisen up a great deal.
95.
Post 1997819 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
You're a pompous, arrogant, smug, patronising son of a bitch that slithers through this forum with the sole intent of trying to get others to make you richer than you claim to already be. I don't hate you ... I pity you. I just can't believe that anyone is still falling for your act ...
I see what you did there. Now, eat my poison:
To the bears:
You may think it is cool to spread FUD, trying to delay the mass adoption and enrich yourself in the process. You are wrong. It is not cool, but the opposite (lame). Also you are not really getting richer, and you know it. The ones, who are now actually getting richer by lying, are competent enough to get richer while speaking the truth, and they have enough bitcoins, and time in their hands to come to my summit and learn how to do it.
I don't understand this part of your post.
"Bear" means "I think the price is going down". Are you seriously insinuating that of the "bears" on this forum (those arguing that the price is going down), there is not a one of them who actually believes it?
The part about mobile phones kind of proves it. There are some techs, such as Twitter, which did not reach more than 2% of the population, yet continue to be current for that subset. Yet, Bitcoin is now used by about 0.01%-0.1% of world's population. Even if it never makes big, it is hard to comprehend that someone who actually used Bitcoin, would cease to use it.
Everything I see, is now pointing to a rapid mass adoption in 2013, which means that the price will overshoot to $millions range in a speculative bubble, coupled with hoarding, and no easy means yet available to augment the supply with instruments with limited monetary privileges (i.e. "real bills" and the like).
Even if I am wrong, $5000 by Christmas is hardly improbable. $100, never. That would mean that Bitcoin's usage would stall in 0.01% of the world's population, and nothing is pointing to that direction. It is growing right now, I estimate
anything between 10-30% per week, and we leave the math to the reader.
So yes, I believe all "legit" bears have sold their coins for a fiat profit, and are now minding their own business somewhere else. This forum is frequented by professionals and their sockpuppets, where the professionals speak mildly bullish statements, and the bears that they employ, speak FUD. All this is just to mask the fact that the pros want to accumulate as many coins as possible. Mathematically and psychologically, bitcoin can never stall in any value short of $100k at least.
I am not a very big potato in the grand scheme of things, but even I can see this much. Seeing it is just the beginning, the next level is realizing that we are all going to be so very rich; now what do we want to do with the money? This is why I am posting. There was this thing called "integrity" in the 1800s, and not much of it could be found in bitcoinworld in 2012. It is coming back, thank you for your time.
96.
Post 1997960 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Sorry ... no interest in reading half a page of your drivel ... if you want to poison me, make it short and sweet. Your monologues have no 'bite' for me
Pathetic that the belligerent supernodes need to use sockpuppets created on April 12th, 2013.
That's almost like saying a 2013 Casascius is a collector's item.
Busted. Everybody will laugh at you, I just ignore. Go home.
97.
Post 2005038 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
I consider that $95-$99 range is irresistible. But afterwards we are going higher. Long term, about 15% weekly increase is sustainable and it will carry us to $10,000+ coin before christmas.
98.
Post 2006759 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Ok guys, I have $25k. So somebody's got to be willing to SELL me some bitcoins @100, right?
If not, this only proves to me about the tape-painting capabilities of the PTB, and underlines the importance of developing the things in the conference: dealer network, supernode and real bills.
You know my number. I'll go to have some snails and chardonnay.
Btw, this is the last day when we see $95 EVER, you can quote me on that.
99.
Post 2006794 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Sell to me at $100 OTC or stfu.
100.
Post 2009223 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
I still don't understand what is the problem:
- 48 hours ago I felt that bitcoin is a buy @140
- It crashed through the 1st fibonacci support of 121
- I no longer felt that it is a buy since I knew it'll go to 95 (the 2nd fib. support)
- about 22 hours ago, I spent 2 hours telling you this
- Nobody believed me, (and also did not sell me any coinz so I went to sleep)
- It did go to $95, and apart from the following 24 hours, it will never see $95 again for sure (and I can sell puts but you don't have any money to buy)
- I managed to buy BTC200 at $103 even during my dinner
- Now I am happy, bitcoin will cross ATH this month and I make money
- I am going to sleep, how about you trolls?
101.
Post 2009356 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
I still don't understand what is the problem:
- 48 hours ago I felt that bitcoin is a buy @140
- It crashed through the 1st fibonacci support of 121
- I no longer felt that it is a buy since I knew it'll go to 95 (the 2nd fib. support)
- about 22 hours ago, I spent 2 hours telling you this
- Nobody believed me, (and also did not sell me any coinz so I went to sleep)
- It did go to $95, and apart from the following 24 hours, it will never see $95 again for sure (and I can sell puts but you don't have any money to buy)
- I managed to buy BTC200 at $103 even during my dinner
- Now I am happy, bitcoin will cross ATH this month and I make money
- I am going to sleep, how about you trolls?
You will loose rest of your hair this night. You will see a much lower numbers than 95$
You are a sockpuppet and ignored. But just for the record, it does not seem to me that we will see $95 again.
Somebody else may think otherwise, and may even be right. But I doubt many of you actually make money in the long run, it seems that you are just confused sorry trolls. My position increased today, I sold some gold to buy bitcoins. Did not post so much, since I felt this was a day when I could make more money by actually working (ie. getting my gold to the salesman and buying bitcoins).
When we go to $120, I will have more time to post since I do not need to trade. At $133 I probably go speculative short.
102.
Post 2012707 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
6k
BTC will take us to $95.00.
I have a feeling that apart from today (Friday May 3, UTC) we will never more have the chance to visit it.
Official Reason: the capitulation of 2nd Fibonacci order from the strong bull move, of $50->$167, leads us to $95, but no lower. (The third is $78, which means that should we cross $91 today, it'll be irresistible, and the the fourth and so on, but
the chance is small, imo.)
Also sub-$100 prices just "seem too cheap".
I am willing and able to just accumulate below $100 myself.
We are in a secular bull market as long as Bitcoin adoption is growing, and I see no proof to the contrary.
103.
Post 2012761 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
I say it hits 96 and bounces, and stays. Elliot wave, downwards. 3 or 5, depending on how you count it- this is the last one
(On btce)
Wtf, is there
one newb who knows what he is talking about, in this thread?
104.
Post 2012779 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
I say it hits 96 and bounces, and stays. Elliot wave, downwards. 3 or 5, depending on how you count it- this is the last one
(On btce)
Wtf, is there
one newb who knows what he is talking about, in this thread?
Ahem, Welcome - I mean
105.
Post 2012897 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Yeah, Mr. SuperNode "Never 145, never 115, never 95" is right one to tell them... if you had some shame you wouldn't appear here for next month at least. But you don't, of course.
I have always prompted people to read my diary first, before daytrading (if any). Since bitcoin is going to $300k in the long run (and higher in the short), it does not make so much sense to fish the bottom unless you do it full time with an organization primed for the task (a supernode).
Just buy and hold. Buying bitcoins at any price sub-100k is not as large a mistake, as it would be to be left out of a supermove, such as the ones in the period between 8/2010-6/2011 and the one started in January 2013.
If everyone were so smart as you claim to be, they would make so much money daytrading that all bitcoins would end up in their pockets in a few short months. I am accumulating about 0.5%-1% of the new mining supply daily. I am content with it, since if the price goes down, this goes up.
The adoption of bitcoin in my observation is growing at a 10-30% weekly rate (and I actually observe things before making my fundamental predictions). There is not much room for further decreases fundamentally.
If we see the third order capitulation to $78, it does not alter any of the fundamental facts.
I saw the bubble coming and sold above $200. My miscalculation was that we would only crash to $100-$120 area and bounce back (2. fib). We did go even as low as $50 and tested it several times (4. fib).
In my thinking, 2. fibonacci should close all moves, everything of higher order is too wonderful to me to understand, and I just buy until it goes away (which it usually does).
I have 10,000 ounces of silver. Takers (pay with bitcoin only)?
106.
Post 2012937 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Friendly advice - ignore whatever he says, bullshitometer wants to explode as soon as he appears. You've be warned, do what you want.
I don't like discounting others opinions unless they do something to seriously piss me off, and he has yet to do that. Nevertheless, thanks for the advice.
Do you guys think the lawsuit is going to affect the price?
Personally, I think it will drive the price down in the short term, but long term it might be a good thing. The more decentralized the better.
Seleme is the most expensive sockpuppet out there, the account is created about the time when I won the infamous debate "silver vs. bitcoin". I was representing silver, that is...
I think trading on news (such as the lawsuit), is more difficult than trading completely without them. I haven't in general followed the media since 2002 or so. I don't read analysts, newspapers, watch TV or movies, .... I have been featured in TV many more hours since 2006 than I have spent watching it.
This frees my time for thinking fundamentally. I am a very bad technical trader, but better than 99% as I make money and don't lose my position.
107.
Post 2012995 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
I think the lawsuit is baked into the current price. Sell the rumor, buy the news
I hope you realize that I am one of the precious few fulltimers that can actually, fundamentally, better the situation they have there (the single point of failure called Mt.Gox). Just read my diary and all the associated things, such as the supernode summit, dealer network etc.
108.
Post 2013050 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
what do you do?
i should read your diary one day...
Oh no, just please continue
without reading my diary....
I promise to read a 30 minute text from everyone, who knows about bitcoin more than I do. (All aspects of it, not just technical.) Just post the links please.
109.
Post 2013052 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Seleme is and will continue to stand in front of your ultrasupernode bullshit as seleme doesn't give a flying one about your ounces, coins etc. (I've told you numerous times where you can put your status symbols) and would rather be on bread and water till his last breath than live on the 30 millions yacht being snob like you are.
Seleme is and will continue to warn people that your predictions and your self-loving ramblings will heavily hurt them financially as you've said so much utter crap here that I'm not sure how the server site is hosted at doesn't explode or something.
As far as Seleme is concerned you are absolutely free to believe whatever you want and to do your business on whatever way you like, that's not my business. But when you advocate that crap publicly here, specially when you do that on the way that causes allergic reactions in Seleme's body, than Seleme will speak.
Ah ok. Do you own any coins?
110.
Post 2013099 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Ah ok. Do you own any coins?
Do you? Send me
BTC13 to prove it kthx
PS: Are you drunk atm?
No. I am seldom drunk, but I do drink 1-6 glasses of champagne, cava, riesling and occasionally red wine, per day when I am working. When at home, I don't drink that much.
I was drunk when giving the 13,370m
BTC though...
111.
Post 2013116 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Stop derailing the thread. This is the wall movement tracker, not your personal pet project propaganda thread. Substantiate your claims or shut up.
Adam, am I welcome in your thread or not? This young man is voicing his opinion on the matter, but I have a hard time recognising him, I don't think we have met...
112.
Post 2013156 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
$91 now. Panic sell round 2
If 91 is breached, expect further downside to $75-80 range.
(If not, this is likely it, and no sub-100 coins after today)
113.
Post 2013182 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
I hope you realize that I am one of the precious few fulltimers that can actually, fundamentally, better the situation they have there (the single point of failure called Mt.Gox). Just read my diary and all the associated things, such as the supernode summit, dealer network etc.
Yes, and best wishes on your attempts, and those who you influence, to overcome the barriers that prevent big money investors, traders and merchants from smoothly accessing and using bitcoins. There are many win-win situations to be found and exploited.
Thank you, sir.
114.
Post 2013201 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
you admit that you suck as a short term trader
Isn't that a little bit hard on me, considering that I have never sold below $200 or bought above $120 (except to materially hedge otc trades)?
Even if I did suck, my credentials do outweigh about 99% that I know of here:
- knew of bitcoins before they were traded
- followed Mt.Gox opening, my friend wanted me to invest, I did not, and have bought less bitcoins than him since, but paid about $500k more for them.
- 16 years stock trading, of which 14 years online
[edit: correction]- 7 years full time silver dealership
- now 6 weeks full time bitcoiner
(Sorry adam my dick is normal size.)
115.
Post 2013258 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
All this arguing over rpietilla's posts is really getting old, and much more annoying than what he is saying himself..
I'm not taking a side on this, but if you hate the guy so much then just use the ignore button.
Or at least take it to another thread.. this thread is a lot less fun since all that started.
There is even
a thread dedicated to discussion about me, so why don't you go there to do the meta, and let me post just my on-topic price predictions here? Adam, OK?
116.
Post 2013295 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
For the TAists, If we don't breach $90, will this be a double bottom?
Yes. If we don't breach it today, this will likely confirm the end of the retracement, and a new violent upmove will commence in short order.
117.
Post 2013322 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
For the TAists, If we don't breach $90, will this be a double bottom?
Yes. If we don't breach it today, this will likely confirm the end of the retracement, and a new violent upmove will commence in short order.
lol
funny how everyone's predictions are always aligned with their best interests
its as if their analysis is based purely on hope
&&
you admit that you suck as a short term trader
Isn't that a little bit hard on me, considering that I have never sold below $200 or bought above $120 (except to materially hedge otc trades)?
Even if I did suck, my credentials do outweigh about 99% that I know of here:
- knew of bitcoins before they were traded
- followed Mt.Gox opening, my friend wanted me to invest, I did not, and have bought less bitcoins than him since, but paid about $500k more for them.
- 16 years stock trading, of which 14 years online
[edit: correction]- 7 years full time silver dealership
- now 6 weeks full time bitcoiner
(Sorry adam my dick is normal size.)
=> another newb ignored.
118.
Post 2013680 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
There is certainly a change happening though.
As I see it, the manipulators are now cocksure that they can raise walls at $100-$120 range,
thinking that they'll hold.
Which I don't think they [the walls] do What is in cards now is a violent rally to $135 "support" (now: resistance) and then retracement to $115-$120 range.
Bitcoin is a fractal, and it is marvellous.
Some of my bigger clients' buy time today...
119.
Post 2022008 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
The 10-30% weekly increase in adoption (weekly % growth of the # of bitcoin users), will turn this discussion completely ridiculous before the end of this month:
January: 10, February: 20, March: 40, April: 80, May: 160, ... December 20480.Even the above contains more valuable advice than most said in this thread, although it is public knowledge that this kind of behaviour cannot just increase exponentially. It will go parabolic, crash, and repeat. Not only I believe it will go to $1M this year, I have not heard very many good arguments from anyone, what can hinder it
Considering that we by and large visited the 3rd fibonacci of $78 (never judge with more than 1-2% precision, this is not voodoo after all but real world, it is
close enough - I should have known from the first visit to 91 that 95 will not hold, it is
too far), the upmove will just be commensurately violent.
At $50 we saw 4th order fibonabbi retracement double(intraday:triple/quadruple) bottom megamove finalcapitulation (akin to 100 megaton fusion charge). As a result, we rallied 50->167 (234%) in 8 days. Now that is 0.64% per hour, compared to the 0.08% exponential trendline it is 8 times faster rate of appreciation.
The sorry state of mankind is truly manifest in its lack of understanding the exponential function. You do not even regard 0.30% per hour as fast when measured in hourly scale (on the contrary, 1 dollar per 3 hours is considered "bitcoin is dead" in these forums).
By being dead continuously for 2673 hours, bitcoin will reach $300k USD by...
...Christmas, this year?
No. August, 22. Granted, the dealer network and some other stuff will have to begin operating, but the good thing is they will, regardless of what you and I do. Even the dealer network fixing excelsheet I already have, and use it for mathematically heavier calculations than "just" stabilizing the price and flows of bitcoin worldwide, which is pretty easy really. The heaviest part is to write enough on this forum, to convince at least 10 other dealers, which I believe are pretty much convinced already, or will be after the I Supernode Summit.
Yesterday alone, I talked to two people more knowledgeable than me. I am just a messenger, like I said when I started posting in a serious way about 30 days ago.
If someone buys bitcoins in May, 2013, he will be rich. In December, he will be poor. The fair value will be crossed somewhere in between.
ADD:
Visual aid: "
Bitcoin is dead in between $90 and $100 now." (zoom to 12h).
120.
Post 2022619 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
The 10-30% weekly increase in adoption (weekly % growth of the # of bitcoin users), will turn this discussion completely ridiculous before the end of this month:
January: 10, February: 20, March: 40, April: 80, May: 160, ... December 20480.Even the above contains more valuable advice than most said in this thread, although it is public knowledge that this kind of behaviour cannot just increase exponentially. It will go parabolic, crash, and repeat. Not only I believe it will go to $1M this year, I have not heard very many good arguments from anyone, what can hinder it
Considering that we by and large visited the 3rd fibonacci of $78 (never judge with more than 1-2% precision, this is not voodoo after all but real world, it is
close enough - I should have known from the first visit to 91 that 95 will not hold, it is
too far), the upmove will just be commensurately violent.
At $50 we saw 4th order fibonabbi retracement double(intraday:triple/quadruple) bottom megamove finalcapitulation (akin to 100 megaton fusion charge). As a result, we rallied 50->167 (234%) in 8 days. Now that is 0.64% per hour, compared to the 0.08% exponential trendline it is 8 times faster rate of appreciation.
The sorry state of mankind is truly manifest in its lack of understanding the exponential function. You do not even regard 0.30% per hour as fast when measured in hourly scale (on the contrary, 1 dollar per 3 hours is considered "bitcoin is dead" in these forums).
By being dead continuously for 2673 hours, bitcoin will reach $300k USD by...
...Christmas, this year?
No. August, 22. Granted, the dealer network and some other stuff will have to begin operating, but the good thing is they will, regardless of what you and I do. Even the dealer network fixing excelsheet I already have, and use it for mathematically heavier calculations than "just" stabilizing the price and flows of bitcoin worldwide, which is pretty easy really. The heaviest part is to write enough on this forum, to convince at least 10 other dealers, which I believe are pretty much convinced already, or will be after the I Supernode Summit.
Yesterday alone, I talked to two people more knowledgeable than me. I am just a messenger, like I said when I started posting in a serious way about 30 days ago.
If someone buys bitcoins in May, 2013, he will be rich. In December, he will be poor. The fair value will be crossed somewhere in between.
ADD:
Visual aid: "
Bitcoin is dead in between $90 and $100 now." (zoom to 12h).
The 10-30% weekly increase in adoption (weekly % growth of the # of bitcoin users)
Where did you get those numbers?
From my hat. I will post some proof later, but the mobile phones example of 1998-1999 is a good primer.
rpietila's SR dealer must have been rich for some time now, his client is high all day and night, selling him stuff is one serious business
Good stuff is increasingly hard to find even now. I believe silk road will be out of (quality) herb, in about July, 2013.
121.
Post 2022720 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
I believe silk road will be out of (quality) herb, in about July, 2013.
Leave some for the boys man, you're gonna explode
And that above is wonderful opportunity to organize supernode herb seminar and dealer network. It's going to skyrocket, 100 000 per gram before Christmas
I think the
best herb will continue to be available about 200-500m
BTC per gram in OTC trade. I would not pay more than 1,000m
BTC unless I really wanted to have some.
122.
Post 2023591 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
we're NOT hitting $1 Million this year.
Holders will be too horny not to Profit take and make a lot of money before the price is anywhere near $1,000,000
Only about 1.5 million bitcoins in speculative (fiat-denominated) hands now. All the rest are owned by the likes of me, I am not selling any bitcoins below the long term realistic value of $300k/
BTC (except in anticipation of a correction and purchase of
more bitcoins).
When I finish my current spree of public talking and start making money full-time, I think I can generate at least
BTC100 every day just as profits. The other supernodes will do the same, and:
- first we will be able to absorb the new supply of
BTC3600 per day, and
- then start to eat up the remaining 1.5M coins that is currently in the exchanges.
- Also I will be able to sell a minimum of
BTC1000 per day to my strong hand clients every day starting about 2 weeks from now.
The endgame will be rather quick. Everybody who buys even 1,000m
BTC now, will be a millionaire before Christmas. I will post more proof in the following weeks. Now I go to plan the conference, that will be the place to decide the practical matters how this will be accomplished.
123.
Post 2024380 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
And I don't see Michael or the others folks with dozens of thousands babbling about their "influence" in the BTC world like you do.
What exactly is wrong with you?? I never said I am something great. I am a messenger. That I said in the beginning and it still holds. I am one supernode, likely among the 400 bitcoin richest people in the world. I know personally several people who are above me. Some of them fellowship with me, give me guidance, then I spend my time writing about these things. You probably don't even have as much as I do, so you should listen to me. I have nothing to learn from you (at least what you have written, either you are mistaken, or I already know it - try harder).
This Michael I don't know, but probably he is chatting with the people who control me. Or maybe not. People are not that important, the technology is important, and the concepts are important. Read my diary, it is the best explanation of what is happening in the Bitcoin universe right now. If you don't believe, you just point me to the springs of knowledge. Otherwise, please stop. Others want to learn. Thank you.
124.
Post 2024443 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Yeah, a supernode with a few hundred thousands $ + a few thousands BTC. Man, it's cheap to be a "supernode" in the BTC world! So what's Loaded or KnightMB... Or Gavin BTW?
According to
my classification of supernodes,
roughly the following amounts of bitcoins, coupled with the actual abilities to use them profitably, entitle you to the supernode status:
0.0th class supernode =
BTC1M
0.5th class supernode =
BTC100,000
1.0st class supernode =
BTC10,000
1.5th class supernode =
BTC3,000
2.0nd class supernode =
BTC1,000
2.5th class supernode =
BTC300
3.0th class supernode =
BTC100
Yes, I also think it is ridiculously cheap to be a supernode. But don't worry, it will become more expensive when the time is ripe. As I have been trying to say, in my view Bitcoin is insanely undervalued
125.
Post 2024502 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Btw, this is the last day when we see $95 EVER, you can quote me on that.
You guys should show him a little more respect, he is a supernode after all.
I think I was technically wrong on that prediction. But what I do (and think it is sensible for you to do also) is to only trade when you are right with a great degree of confidence.
I am currently buying bitcoins, not much care about the price, since with a high degree of confidence, they will be worth much more after 6-12 months. Somebody else may take more risks to gain more shorter term, and I am fine with that. I am very risk averse, and my 10-yr APR is 41% (in liquid terms only, not including paper valuations of illiquid companies that I own many). Most of the time I am wrong (as we all are), but when I do hold the nuts (like I do with bitcoin), you don't want to be the counterparty
126.
Post 2024705 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Btw, this is the last day when we see $95 EVER, you can quote me on that.
You guys should show him a little more respect, he is a supernode after all.
"[...]I am currently buying bitcoins, not much care about the price [...]"
Forgive me if the question is absurd, but you've mentioned you were "all in" when the price was somewhere in the 130s. Is there an alternate meaning to "all in" on this forum, and it's possible to continue buying while being "all in"
One possible way is to generate a fiat cash flow. Exchanging it for bitcoins, in a way is going "more all in".
I explained this somewhere but whatever.. I am not all in, in the sense that I still own considerable other wealth such as 10,000oz of silver that is currently for sale in return of bitcoins. If you want to point my inconsistencies, you should first read and understand me. (Many people think they can point inconsistencies in the Bible, whereas in reality they don't even understand the whole thing, in most cases they haven't even read it. Disclaimer: I am not the Bible, or Jesus, or Satoshi. Just a messenger.)
127.
Post 2024829 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
It showed he at one point had 13 BTC and 92k USD. No it does not prove he is a "super node" but it does show he is not a 100% troll. Knowing he bought 700 BTC would make me feel better about flying to Finland.
So you are coming after all...?
I was wanting you to come.
I extended the stay to 5 nights (from original 3) for the same price. The weather is nice, and I managed to secure a white limo:
It is fine if this is sent to Smoothie wall observer thread. I submit.
128.
Post 2024914 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
3.0th class supernode = BTC100
Woohoo I am a supernode! (means nothing)
Not much, really
When you start to do something productive, then your actual influence will increase. If you don't, then you are a sleeping giant. Your call.
In February, nobody knew me. Now, everybody knows me. When I have finished the developments I am about to achieve, I will move on to other things.
Then the on-topic part: I think the walls permit bitcoin to rise to $119 in a bold move. Afterwards I go to sleep and not post, and the general bullishness erodes, and the bears push the price back to $106. We will not see 100 ever again.
Goat: it's OK,
I understand this is crazy and too soon, but it is also crazy that Mark and Peter fight against each other. I don't have as many bitcoins as you, but I do this for my own bitcoins' sake, and I would appreciate a tip if you think my work is useful to Bitcoin as a whole, thank you!
129.
Post 2024936 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Well, you see guys - there are two rpietilas.
One who knew about bitcoin since Satoshi started coding it (he said something not far away from this line though of course I am exaggerating ), one who is ultra mofo supernode and etc. etc..
There is another one who on his own bitcoin selling site claims he opened MtGox account in September 2012, one who joined Bitcointalk (I guess this forum is place you find yourself on 4 minutes after you hear there is some thing called Bitcoin) in December 2012, and who started selling Bitcoins on his site in January 2013.
It's not an issue how many coins and powder he has nor it is something I remotely care about, the issue is that he is pretty late adopter who had money to invest a lot in bitcoins and it's now doing all he can to present himself as Bitcoin pioneer, ultrasupernode etc etc so he could be accepter in big boys group and profit from it.
Just look what his main ideas are - supernode conference and dealer network. You really think his dealer network plan is to stabilize the price? Lol.. he is just not big fish enough to move the market as he would wanted to as he has nowhwere near enough coins for that, his real aim is to try to infiltrate himself in those circles that have enough power to do that (move markets) so he can protect his investment and profit form market moves (by having a prior knowledge of planned manipulations).
He is acting as no-brain junky rambling all kind of crap here but he is not stupid guy. He would never be noticed without all bullshit he wrote, he is seriously dangerous manipulator and only thing I hope is that those big boys he is targeting won't fail on all his crap though I'm not sure there is much hope for that, there are lot of cocks in bitcoin community and one big dick joining them would be a logic route.
+1, except forum join date was wrong and my
first Mt.Gox acct is opened and funded in 2011
130.
Post 2026536 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
I think the walls permit bitcoin to rise to $119 in a bold move. Afterwards I go to sleep and not post, and the general bullishness erodes, and the bears push the price back to $106. We will not see 100 ever again.
Damn, I was almost there! If rontus had been working (fortunately he only works about 50 hours of 168 per week, and generally not on Saturdays, and even of his working time, I only give him authority to sell short about 30% of the time, so this is purely of theoretical interest now) he would
certainly have smelled the trend change and managed to sell about
BTC430 at an average price of $113.2. Then I would have told him to buy back at $103 (he is better in selling but my buyback levels are more spot on).
The 42,500m
BTC profit would have enabled our lifestyle for several days...
Well, from your "category list" it seems we are all supernodes... Cool!
Indeed we are. There are only so many bitcoins in the world, and a lowest class supernode is not a U.S. Administration of 100,000 skilled professionals, but an ordinary bloke who bought in any time before March 2013, and has some spare time, and knowledge of English, maths and history. Of course when we go up the ladder, there will be many rpietilas, and in the higher level Goat, MP and Winklewii.
Read the "supernode OP" for more info and comment where appropriate!
Anyhow, as I said earlier everything look very fishy - I see two options: a) you are delusional and not-very-smart folk who made some money in the wild Bitcoin ride we had lately (not so difficult, we went x10 in just a few months) and now you are riding your very own ego trip, or b) you are preparing a big scam flooding the community with your "i am so wealthy" thing
Why is it so offensive that I live in a classy hotel? The highest burn rate of $200k per month was last week, now I spend at about $50k per month. If I go home and eat noodles, my expenses still run at about $20-30k minimum, since I have staff. Most of the businessmen do, in the real world. Generally their expenses are much higher than mine. I am actually very stingy, compared to most of my friends.
If you think this is excessive for what I manage to accomplish, how about complaining about how your very own tax money is spent in Afghanistan with far less positive effect? I would say the difference is about 4 orders of magnitude, in other words 10,000 times more money totally wasted!
With a rather conservative price prediction for the following 3 months, I estimate a 100% per month increase, which would mean that per every
BTC100, you make about $10k first month. A 3rd class supernode can quit eating noodles and start to live. A 2nd class supernode of
BTC1,000 can do what I do, and I just await that the real big guys start to benefit the mankind with their stashes.
This is the reason I spend - to show that even a medium
BTC-holder can do this! No reason to hate, rather you live up to your own standard, and I live up to mine. If you have at least
BTC1,000 as I assume every 2012 or before has (unless he proves otherwise), you can do the same as I do, with ease. Why should I do all the work?? Every city needs at least one supernode, and I am here to help these becoming reality. It is one of the workshops in the summit.
Besides there is no "flooding of community". I post my theoretical observations to my own thread. Then I post my price predictions here, and every time I do, some April 14th troll speaks negatively of me. Then I correct the misunderstanding. In no way I am here to cause disturbance - the instant the OP wants me to go, I go - but we all know that actually a 3-month quarantine for all newbies is the real answer to the problem, pointing me is easy but not too smart.
BTW: what about an escrowed bet, so you can put your money where your mouth is? Willing to bet that we will be at $300k/BTC by the end of the year, as you predicted? I'm sure al lot of users in these forums would be willing to join this bet. It's a nice way of hedging - if we win you give us your money, if you win we are all rich anyway, you included, so why not?
How about the following:
- You escrow 100 bitcoins for my 1
- You write a 2013 $100,000 call option to your bitcoins, so that I can buy them from you anytime, by just sending you $10 million U.S. Dollars
- If I do not redeem your bitcoins before 31. December 2013, you get my 1 bitcoin as I lose the bet
This way everybody profits. Even if you lose, you get $10 million, and the rest of your bitcoins are worth even more. If I lose, I only lose 1 bitcoin, and I still have a lot (and they were not that valuable anyway..
)
Wouldn't you mind betting repietila?
My middle initial is A.
131.
Post 2026633 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Agree, you'r buying instinct is state of the art. Those 700 bought at 134 day before 40% crash is the move of the Master tactician
It was irresistible, goat sold to me at 3% discount to Gox!!
132.
Post 2026818 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Looks like resistance at 110 - 115 is waning. Time for 120?
I think the wall at 120 and the strong previous support - now resistance at 121 prevent any crossing of this line for now.
A retracement to 105-6 is in order when the assault to 120 fails. This would be my original prediction from several hours ago.
133.
Post 2027214 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Looks like resistance at 110 - 115 is waning. Time for 120?
I think the wall at 120 and the strong previous support - now resistance at 121 prevent any crossing of this line for now.
A retracement to 105-6 is in order when the assault to 120 fails. This would be my original prediction from several hours ago.
True, there is resistance at 120-124 (that big volume hammer on the downside) but we broke through it on the rally or bounce out.
I think that makes that resistance weaker, no?
We will need several attempts to leave the resistance levels of about 121, 135 and 150 behind. Then there is 167 and 267, but they were never confirmed with volume anyways.
I prefer to think that the strength of the resistance is important, but equally important is the move required to reach it. It is like marching armies to a battle.
Sun Tzu writes:
Thus, if you order your men to roll up their buff-coats, and make forced marches without halting day or night, covering double the usual distance at a stretch, doing a hundred LI in order to wrest an advantage, the leaders of all your three divisions will fall into the hands of the enemy. The stronger men will be in front, the jaded ones will fall behind, and on this plan only one-tenth of your army will reach its destination.
If you march fifty LI in order to outmaneuver the enemy, you will lose the leader of your first division, and only half your force will reach the goal.
If you march thirty LI with the same object, two-thirds of your army will arrive.
You have a certain buying pressure, but if you want to conquer something that is 100 li (about 25%) away, no matter how weak it is, you will certainly fall. After such a move, sellers smell any sign of blood, and the 61% retracement is sure to happen. (This is pretty much my trading strategy: only sell after this move, because you cannot really lose)
If you need to advance 50 li (12.5%) and then demolish the wall, half of the buying pressure is already relieved, and likely the wall will hold. Even if it falls, the chances are great that the region will be revisited sooner or later.
After 30 li (7.5%) you have a mighty power to attack a wall, but even then, the victory is not sure.
Depending of the strength of the resistance, it should take up to 4 assaults to conquer it. No matter how strongly you destroy the wall, the region will be revisited. From hindsight, it was not a surprise that $50 support defended
4 intraday assaults during the mid-April crash. It
took 5 assaults to conquer it when it was a resistance.
I admit I was wrong with my $115 never again call. I just did not see any stronger holds than $121 which was the 1st retracement of the 50->167 move. My fundamental analysis bias is also there. I see sub-1000 bitcoin as so insanely great a buy that I have a hard time differentiating between 134 and 78, although I probably should...
134.
Post 2028864 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Looks like time for $122
I guess 118/19 - 111 - 124.
I propose the 2nd retracement to 106 (instead of 111), otherwise I hardly make any money.
135.
Post 2029709 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Risto: man up. You are either spreading BS you don't believe in a ridiculous attempt to talk the price up (you know that's not happening, right?) or you really believe that 1BTC will be above $300k by the end of the year.
If its the latter, I make you an offer you cannot refuse: 2:1 odds at your favor that we won't reach $300k per 1 BTC in this year, and we publish this bet so other members can join up to a maximum total amount you choose. Minimum bet 100BTC
I only bet so that I win regardless. If you offer such bad odds, I better just buy bitcoins. Besides betting without actual transfer of bitcoins to me, is pointless hot air, therefore I either buy calls or write puts. I thought you would be happy by either getting 1 bitcoin or 10 million USD... no lose huh
What price range do
you believe then??
136.
Post 2029931 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
but I know that $300k per 1 BTC is delusional
How many people you know, who bought a mobile phone, but went back to fixed line?
How many tried Internet but decided it's not for them?
If something happens in the world, would the news not reach the uttermost ends of the earth in latest 48 hours (if not instantly for most places)?
What keeps 1 billion people from adopting bitcoin? (How can you keep them from
not adopting it?)
How many bitcoins are for sale?
To not believe in $300k this year is a denial of the facts. Only a technical flaw in the algorithm or a superstealthfast adoption of a superior altcoin currently not existing, or an all-out wiping away of all mankind can keep USD/BTC
from exploding this year. Already everyone who has any position in this world knows about Bitcoin.
Just post any nugget of actual facts that can contradict my $300k this year or cease replying to me with nothing material, thank you.
137.
Post 2029956 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.
138.
Post 2030031 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.
Facebook users found utility, new BTC adopters aren't adopting for practical utility (because they're is essentially none relative to reality), they're adopting for the gamble of making more in a quick flip.
It is almost as if the becoming rich part was detrimental to bitcoin adoption...
Good that the mobile phone did not make early adopters rich, we would still have fixed lines even today...
1000 -> 1 million users => 2000x price appreciation
1 million -> 1 billion users => 2000x price appreciation
139.
Post 2030053 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Ok man, accept the bet.
You are not being very smart if you turn down a sure 1 bitcoin, or a sure 10 million dollars. What exactly do you need?
140.
Post 2030082 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.
Facebook users found utility, new BTC adopters aren't adopting for practical utility (because they're is essentially none relative to reality), they're adopting for the gamble of making more in a quick flip.
It is almost as if the becoming rich part is detrimental to bitcoin adoption...
Good that the mobile phone did not make early adopters rich, we would still have fixed lines even today...
1000 -> 1 million users => 2000x price appreciation
1 million -> 1 billion users => 2000x price appreciation
There's a lot of obstacles before Bitcoin is embraced by enough people to reach $300k per 1
BTC. If you are so sure about your prediction, put your BTC where your mouth is
Ah sorry!
Until now I thought your join date was early 2011, but that was another one.
You have no business understanding this yet, ignored.
141.
Post 2030112 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.
I don't know why you believe Bitcoin is going to be used by 1 billion people by the end of the year. That's simply not going to happen. Things like Facebook grow quickly because they're easy to use and people tell their friends about it etc. - Essentially everyone can go ahead and make a Facebook account. It's free, can be done in a few seconds.
Take Paypal for example:
NOVEMBER 2001
In a brief two years, PayPal has emerged as the most successful new
payment service provider on the Internet. Growing at a rate of 18,000
new accounts per day atop a base of 10 million registered users, PayPal,
more than any other service, is shaping how the online community thinks
about consumer payments. While the traditional financial services
industry looks on—partly in contempt, partly in awe—PayPal continues to
bear down: focusing on customer needs, methodically expanding its
service, and steering toward profitability.
This research report examines PayPal’s clear market success to
determine what lessons can be taken away by others in the financial
services industry. After describing how the service has evolved into a
point-to-point payment service, it looks at the company’s customer value
proposition, innovative marketing approach, and overall positioning in the
payments industry. The report concludes by distilling the lessons learned
from PayPal into six simple rules for developing new payment services.
That's 18,000 accounts per day, roughly 6.5 million per year. I know that's 2001, 12 years ago before the internet really started catching on. However my previous point still stands: Creating a Paypal account can be done in under a minute. Getting into Bitcoin is much much harder. When I first started I had to read up on a TON of things, then I had to somehow get my money into one of the exchanges. After a few days of fiddling around I finally managed to get some €'s into Bitstamp via a SEPA transaction.
Right now Bitcoin does not appeal to the general masses of regular consumers. If you want it to you need to make it MUCH easier to get Bitcoins and get to know about them.
All this is going to happen in 3 months, I have written it in my diary (link in sig).
It is almost as if
nobody actually reads it
142.
Post 2030345 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
This is definitely the last one today, if you don't believe NOR know math you can go home If you do either, and buy bitcoins, you will be very rich
I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:
When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow.
This must grow by 100% to reach
When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a
factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing.
This must grow by 100% to reach
4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users.
This must grow by 100% to reach
8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing
very fast)
This must grow by 100% to reach
16 people in 1000 (1.6%) ->
1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984.
SINGULARITYWhen this is reached, the utility tends to infinity.
Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2.
In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months.
- The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!))
- The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users
143.
Post 2030458 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
The above is all correct (go exponential function!). Still, if the price goes to $300k per Bitcoin this will be the single most unlikely thing (to me) that has happened. Ever.
It is only because you refuse to believe that it is inevitable. One of the summit delegates tried to tell this to me for 2 years, finally I understood it.
We are now in "2". If there is still no utility, we will reach $300k by 2016. But if there
is utility,
the endgame can be rather quick.
144.
Post 2030473 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Current users are not equal to current speculators
Yeah. The speculators sell their coin for fiat profit, and "buy" 0.01% of it back when they receive their paycheck in October, 2013.
145.
Post 2032096 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
This is definitely the last one today, if you don't believe NOR know math you can go home If you do either, and buy bitcoins, you will be very rich
I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:
When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow.
This must grow by 100% to reach
When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a
factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing.
This must grow by 100% to reach
4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users.
This must grow by 100% to reach
8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing
very fast)
This must grow by 100% to reach
16 people in 1000 (1.6%) ->
1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984.
SINGULARITYWhen this is reached, the utility tends to infinity.
Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2.
In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months.
- The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!))
- The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users
The number of possible connections between two users out of N is actually N choose 2, which is quadratic...
Oops, i was too tired.
Did not change the outcome, though, since (quadratic > exponential)
not >> but matters little since currently the exchanges are the bottleneck
or how about multisig connections...
146.
Post 2033841 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Looks like time for $122
I guess 118/19 - 111 - 124.
I propose the 2nd retracement to 106 (instead of 111), otherwise I hardly make any money.
I think I nailed this one
147.
Post 2033894 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Looks like time for $122
I guess 118/19 - 111 - 124.
I propose the 2nd retracement to 106 (instead of 111), otherwise I hardly make any money.
I think I nailed this one
Will be interesting to see if we do go over 120 here or back down under 100. Long weekend after all.
How many times do I need to tell that we will not see 100 again?
I am all in today because this is insanely great buy. There is also quite much support in $105 (not that it means anything but buys are real, sells are fake).
148.
Post 2033916 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
wow huuuuge buy just pushed the price up 8$
That was only because I said I am done buying. Nothing to see there.
149.
Post 2034827 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Yes KillaMarci, looks like a bearish pennant on clarkmoody. Most of the rocket fuel has been used up on the China news and there is not much supply over the weekend. Might retest $100.
I think we will retest $90 if we go under $105 (and i think we will).
I think $100 will not be breached but no bets. My reasoning:
79->119 first retracement 104.2
95->119 second retracement 103.7.
I am calling 50% probability that this will be the area of capitulation, and next we go up.
- 25% we go to the $95 area and then up.
- 25% we leave this behind right away since 105 mighty wall already took two assaults from above, and was not even close.
There is immense buying pressure.
150.
Post 2035331 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
That's a huge wall at 100. Not sure what impact it can have on the market given we're still $10 away from it. It's not like ask have has been pushing as of lately. I for one can't see how that wall can manipulate anything.
I believe it's fake. I did not know fake bid wall existed but this smells fishy.
A general rule is that you set up an opposite wall to what you actually want to do. So this would be from someone who wants to sell. But the sellers don't have this much money, they are mainly fiat-thinkers who sell out too early, to be replaced weekly with new speculators. Hard to say, but my prediction still holds.
Did you notice that if I post a prediction, one or two commenters usually tell me to stfu. But they don't tell to others. and my comments have been quite good lately.
151.
Post 2035439 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
The problem is not your comments on the market, what you fail to see is that most dont seem to like the way you coat them with how wonderfull you and your lifestyle are. Stay on topic and all will be fine. I even enjoy some of your comments.
The problem is not me or my posts, which are concise and thought-out,
the problem is clueless newbs and paid trolls, who are not deleted at the instant that they post personal insults against a senior forum contributor.
Insulting me is off-topic here; and there
is a thread dedicated to it. Understand? Now you may go.
EDIT: Link added.
152.
Post 2035482 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
I have a feeling that goat is right.
It will visit double digits today after all, one last time. Remember to buy yours then!
153.
Post 2035585 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Besides I feel we will go sub-100, I just feel the second retracement of the 79->119 move (in 94.5) is calling. Bitcoin will not leave money on the battlefield but will punish all pigs alike.
If 107.5 were 105, I would say it will not be breached. Similarly I felt that 91 will hold even though it was not 95. These numbers are not meaningless, I made a mistake then but will not do it again.
154.
Post 2036039 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Geting 1000+ coin market buy orders for the third time, what is going on ?
Umm.. somebody wants coinz
155.
Post 2038808 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
The more volume we see around 120, the less we will ever again visit 100.
Unfortunately, I am short 2000 coins, and have no need for the dollars. I have devised a rather fancy buyback procedure, but unless we quickly go sub-100, I will make a loss on this one.
156.
Post 2038859 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
I have a feeling that goat is right.
It will visit double digits today after all, one last time. Remember to buy yours then!
Don't think so. Anyhow, your prediction skills are state of the art, man.
Thanks. Wonder I have any bitcoins left...
157.
Post 2043818 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
It just boggles my mind that someone will play around with 2mil in cash in a market like this. I wonder how many BTC he has?
Zero. And just learned about Bitcoin, how amazing it is, and wants a long-term holding like Winklevii, Exante and Keiser?
If someone really wanted to get in at 110 with 2 mil, I think they would put a much smaller wall there and then reinforce it as it gets eaten
Unless they don't give a shit because they HAVE 2 million to play with
You don't earn $2m by screwing around like that.
How exactly do you earn $2 million then!? Tell me
I was selling yesterday like a baby elephant. Did not want to tell it in the thread (since it was a kind of live training for me and Roni) but it was about 67% my fault that we dropped from 119 to 108. Some of you saw the 1,000
BTC wall scaring the shit away from prospective buyers. It was mine. I thought it would drop anyway, and the time was ripe for some playing around.
I could drive the price 10% down without selling more than 1,000
BTC. This confirmed to me that it was overextended to the upside, just waiting for pricking. Then I tried to pressure it further down towards my target of 105, since the support in my theory lies below that magic number. I did not think we would revisit 100 again, and if we did, we would just briefly dip to about 95, and leave the territory for good.
That was a mistake. After 12% drop the bowl was tilted and a recoil was in order. If I had been playing with
BTC300-500, I would have got out at average 116, enabling a buyback at 108-109. Now I was "too big to succeed" and thought that it would certainly go to 105 just because of my wish. I spent 1,000
BTC in trying to cross 107 second time, which was needless waste of ammunition with a gain that would not have been monetary anyway (buying back at 105.14 with a 2,000
BTC wall would have been a near wash - I never aim to gain 1-2%, that is way too risky with bitcoin. 10-20% suits me much better).
Then I wrote that I was "done buying". Since the bid was there, and I was sure that there would be a person in the U.S., after waking up Sunday morning, seeing that coin is down, but he can still sell for a profit, would sell the 5,000
BTC. So technically I was done buying, although the bid was not fulfilled yet. I also thought I would act as a double-contrarian indicator, profiting from telling about doing contrary to what I do.
Then some bloke I am not affiliated with, decided to buy 2,000
BTC with market order and everything went sour.
Now I have set up a very fancy algorithmic buyback schedule, which either allows me to buy back at a profit (possible even 6 more days if the price goes south), a loss (if it doesn't do it in 6 days), or leaves me with $220k funny money,
and my remaining bitcoins valued at $300k/
BTC in October, 2013.
Sometimes you need to spend money to make a point. This time I earnestly hope to be able to buyback (I will divulge the strategy when I am done), but even if not, I can suffer the $300k bitcoins like a man. After all some people will actually commend me for the prediction and thank me for their fortune, and the haters are not welcome to my conference anyway and ignored in this forum.
Disclaimer: The "me" means me, personally, when referring to the initiator of trades, and Eesti Investeerimishobe OÜ, est. 2009, Tallinn when referring to the owner of the bitcoins traded. In Estonia, bitcoin trade is tax free. The company is 100% owned by my family.
158.
Post 2044107 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Y'all are being trolled
A rule-of-thumb:
- Blockchain transactions to your offline-generated wallets are real.
- Everything else is probably fake.
- The wall observer is a joke, since we make the walls. Others observe them.
159.
Post 2044442 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
All i know is rpietila has fun. No matter what he is doing, at least he's taking the bull by the horns and doing something..
We need more people in the world like him.
Thank you for these kind words, sir.
But please remember that at times, 40% of this thread is metatalk about me, and the raison d'être of this thread is to
observe the walls that the wallmasters set up. There are other threads available, if you want to discuss my fundamental research in an atmosphere of
dignity, or
contempt.
The latter thread, is shown as follows in my screen:
A: This user is currently ignored.
B: This user is currently ignored.
A: This user is currently ignored.
C: This user is currently ignored.
160.
Post 2044472 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
The strong price action, leads me to think, we'll see 134 soon.
161.
Post 2044771 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Let's not forget that a major bubble popped less than 30 days ago. It took one year for the price to return to $30 after the 2011 bubble. For me the only thing holding us back from the strong downward pressure from the last crash is the Chinese news. People have been squabbling over what this news means in the short-range. What are the implications of this for the months to come? This is MAJOR progress for bitcoin. The Chinese government is most certainly backing bitcoin as we have had multiple media leaks endorsing it. It cannot be an isolated event.
Buy the rumour, sell the news. They (CCP) are now loaded, and may be ready to cash out short term. Long term china will be a major playa.
Yes, it will go back sub-100 briefly, goat is right.
162.
Post 2050709 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Man, wake up. Wallzilla intention was to SELL, not to BUY. You don't place a $2M bid just $5 below spot in the real world, if your real intention is to buy. And you don't keep pushing it up, because a 10% of $2M is A LOT of money, for you, me and all the rich guys around. With that kind of wall you are only pushing the price up, everybody knows that - and no, the theory of the clueless guy who just received his lottery winnings on Gox (on a Sunday
) is just utter BS.
That's how the market works: you want to sell a big chunk and your loaded with fiat, you place a huge wall trying to push the price up and to create depth around your wall. You want to buy low and you have a lot of coins, you put a huge ASK wall to push the price down.
If you really want to buy $2M coins, you just place smaller bids all over a certain price range. Putting 10% of the total amount of fiat sitting on Gox in a single spot means only one thing: your real intention is to sell.
+1
In theory, yes. But is there a seller willing to sell at these low levels, who already has sold to cash out $2M (which is 20k coins)? In my calculation, there are only about 40 people in the category.
It is possible that he is a buyer after all, no matter how unreasonable it is.
(When I was a newb about 6 weeks ago, I showed $130k wall in Bitstamp just for the lulz, and ended up buying at an average 6% higher than the point of showing the wall, I also drove the price from 2% discount to Mt.Gox to 2% premium. Now I am smarter and
know how to play. Still I might do things just for the lulz, like the mindless crash of 14. Feb makers who wanted a red Valentine candle).
163.
Post 2050722 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Ooh, bowl is tilted to the downside. Poll: should I send 2k to Gox to crash it (1k sell + 1k wall)?
Can I buy sub-100 back or no??
164.
Post 2056335 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Holy shit that was a crazy ride. Bought at 103 seconds before it jumped to 111. Don't know what to think now. Still think sub 100s after this thing runs its course.
Sell for 109 wait a couple hours and buy back for 95
Hmm.. Do you think 95 will hold? If it does, we are in an
uptrend, defined by the lower bound 50-79-95 (still no pics sorry)!
What if there are more coins to be sold after the "big pump of china"?
I say sub-100 is a buy, above 100 is
not a short-term buy.
(Last time I said that, it dropped to 50 in the following day and I kind of felt sucker, buying at 86..)
165.
Post 2056463 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
$50 is the new low!!!
$50 is the new $5, so bitcoin is obviously going to $500 next. I don't mind 1,000% gains even if we go to 50. And will buy more sub-100.
Ok if we breach 78, it will likely resume downtrend for a time, but I think we will not see 78 again.
166.
Post 2056664 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Ok if we breach 78, it will likely resume downtrend for a time, but I think we will not see 78 again.
I hate it when you say "we will not see $xx again" because when you do we ALWAYS see that number again and it usually doesn't take long after you say it.
If you really think so, what a valuable advice! Sell 33% of your bitcoins if the price is above the floor and buy them back when we see it.
If we cross 110, we could see a minirally. But bid depth above 95 is anemic, $2m. When I went to sleep not that long ago, it was $2m above 105.
Bitcoin is wonderful, because it seems that it is always about the right price. It can always go down as well as up, and you can never be sure. Of course, long term it seems to be going up. Only way to trade profitably is to buy low and sell high. It takes skill to know which number is low and which is high.
167.
Post 2056755 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
My reasoning goes like this - it has to touch $100 before leaving this area.
But touching it induces a panic that may go low or lower. Expect a crash immediately if $102 does not hold. The depth above 102 is $400k.
Do not sell your coins, this is not my intention. Prime your buys between 50-100 when we get there.
168.
Post 2056809 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
So, we're going to see 95 again?
I think we will not see 95 again, but 100 is irresistible. But you can never know - after hitting 95 it can induce another rout. If 79 does not hold, more retreat. After that
even I would consider that we go to 50, and perhaps we would, perhaps not. Even now people are buying because they think that I am a contrarian indicator and my sudden turn to bearishness bodes well for bitcoin.
Long term anything sub-100k is a glaring buy.
169.
Post 2056822 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Anyone interested in puts?
As you might know by now, I want to buy bitcoins, and what would be a better way to buy them than giving others permission to sell at lower than current price
and net the margin. Worst scenario would be to just net the margin..
Imho, we will see either 110 or 102, one before the other. Prepare accordingly.
170.
Post 2056936 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Anyone interested in puts?
As you might know by now, I want to buy bitcoins, and what would be a better way to buy them than giving others permission to sell at lower than current price
and net the margin. Worst scenario would be to just net the margin..
Imho, we will see either 110 or 102, one before the other. Prepare accordingly.
Can you explain what you are offering? I have read a bit about puts and they don't make a lot of sense to me.
If you believe that bitcoin might go down a lot, you sell, and buy back cheaper.
If you are not sure, it may go down or not, but that is not certain, and you don't want to sell eg. for tax reasons, you buy a put.
For example, now I would sell you a $100 put for
BTC.200.
MP is selling it
for BTC.330 currently so you get it cheaper from me.
Put is my obligation to buy bitcoins at the strike price, no matter how low they go in other venues such as Mt.Gox.
This put above is current until end of June, and may be exercised any time before.
BTC100 face value OK (I want to try even this one time thats why I lowered the minimum).
So you pay me
BTC20, and your
BTC100 will never be worth less than $10,000 until the end of June. Sleep well!
171.
Post 2056975 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
We just saw 110 and 102 in the same candle only 2 hours ago!
That fact is instrumental in my analysis. It is called "trading range", and breaking either will be fireworks. However it is a trap nevertheless. If we break to the upside, it is a bull trap. Downside, it is a bear trap.
172.
Post 2056978 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
ya i'd like to buy a PUT
100$ strike price 200BTC
how much?
BTC40, send me PM so we lock-in the price and details.
173.
Post 2057055 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
ya i'd like to buy a PUT
100$ strike price 200BTC
how much?
BTC40, send me PM so we lock-in the price and details.
40BTC or about
so that i can sell you 200 BTC for 100$ each anytime before june.
an ok deal if you think bitcoin might go down and want to sell them.
i'm going to have to pass i just realize i want MORE
The premium must be paid in bitcoins of course, because no other method is as fast, cheap and trustable.
When you send me
BTC200 before June, I will be obliged to send you $20,000, and that is fiat, and may take up to a week to reach you.
For this privilege you send me
BTC40, this is fair if anything
OK, right now it crosses $110, we want to see it play ut before you buy, right
174.
Post 2057131 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
A put sounds interesting. Now my question would be how to enforce fulfillment of contract.
That would be a problem if you had a history of scamming people, or no history whatsoever. My history is 7 years precious metals dealer with 8-figure sales. Set up a scam accusation thread if you want to know how many people I scammed. Even the
ridicule thread is almost dead.
Last year I was
a victim of scams/defaults of up to $80k. Now you cannot be scammed
of this much if you don't have any (Goat?
)
Now as you - Goat - are online, perhaps you can pay me
BTC700 to the following address (please confirm the address from both email and skype before paying and send
BTC1 test case):
1ArJoUdZ1WLFHPe1jQZ1536W7cuCQquUsJ
EDIT: Goat sent me email saying that he can only pay thursday. It is OK, I also don't walk around with privkeys to 700,000m
BTC
175.
Post 2057234 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
620kUS to 102, same to 117. I smell a bulltrap forming in the 114 area. This time of the day, there are not so many buyers, even I could crash the price easily, but it is hard to buy back above 100.
Below 100 there will be lots of coins to be bought
176.
Post 2057248 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Solex bought just to troll me.
Long term, everything sub-120
per mBTC is a good buy.
177.
Post 2057388 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Solex bought just to troll me.
Haha. I wish.
There are degrees of boldness and the wall of fame has some real doozies. To be fair, your prediction is milder than most.
FWIW, I agree with Ares, we are seeing an upper channel break-out. But is it a fake-out of a break-out? I am sure Rpietila has a view!
It looks fair value at 110 right now.
I bet you never guessed that!
178.
Post 2057932 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
For the average Joe, Bitcoin is not any more a train about to leave the station.
Make that: "
For the average Joe, Bitcoin is not yet a train about to leave the station."
- But it will be. If not this month, then the next. I called a 1-3 month consolidation in 100-120 area before a supermove up. We are right there even now, 4 weeks after the bubble burst. If I panic buy at 144 meanwhile, it is my own problem.
It has plenty of time to go to sub-$100 in May. Even as of this writing, there is $500k bid volume to 102, which is so pathetic that if I show a wall of 1k coins like I did yesterday, it will crash right here and now.
It takes about 45 mins to send the coins.
179.
Post 2057990 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
180.
Post 2061393 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
Thank you for all the coins. Rpietila has bought 2,500,000m
BTC, left the trading desk, and will join the guests in his conference.
181.
Post 2061455 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
Thank you for all the coins. Rpietila has bought 2,500,000m
BTC, left the trading desk, and will join the guests in his conference.
Speaking of oneself in the third person is a bad sign indeed, my friend
Oh, forgot to add:
- I will always quote in minicoins (m
BTC) from now on
- I don't think we see $0.1 ever again
- I can still write puts for $0.1, PM me
- If you want to know, how much I made and how, it will be a workshop case study in my conference
182.
Post 2068053 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
What. Out of all possibilities a few hours ago, this one seemed the most unlikely.
It is called a "cup-and-handle". It is a very bullish formation.
I will be able to post a summary of my trades in Gox in 5.-7. May to this thread if it is deemed to be orderly, and there is at least some public demand. I am quite satisfied with the outcome, and would like the others to learn the secrets as well. Please don't contact me personally if you are not willing and/or able to pay my consulting fee of 10,000m
BTC/hour, prepaid in the increments of 15 minutes.
183.
Post 2068731 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
Anyone willing to pay that loser 10BTC/hour will end up broke.
Based on the guy's track record you can be sure to get bad advice lol.
Some track record from my recent trades:
TIME/15MIN BTC CHANGE USD CHANGE AVG PRICE
1 -707 81 982 115,94
2 -100 11 211 112,11
3 -82 9 058 110,78
4 -250 27 871 111,48
5 -743 80 634 108,51
6 -7 727 109,20
213 -15 1 585 109,00
214 -229 24 776 108,21
215 0 0
216 100 -10 414 104,14
217 0 0
218 315 -32 616 103,41
219 114 -11 817 104,00
220 109 -11 147 102,68
221 0 0
222 -28 2 922 104,36
223 29 -2 972 102,57
224 150 -15 247 101,65
225 489 -48 318 98,81
226 0 0
227 115 -11 676 101,57
228 22 -2 255 102,30
229 688 -70 213 102,07
230 206 -21 163 102,87
176 2 927
I am willing to send the raw data to somebody (.xlsx) by email/skype if he promises to publish it (sorry I don't know how to share files efficiently
). It is 450 transactions and I have already done some preliminary analysis such as grouping the trades in 15 minute brackets as shown above.
6 hours of trading for a gain of 176,000m
BTC. If we add the 2 hours of moving the btc for the scare-walls in and out of Gox, 2 hours of premeditation, and 2 hours of backend, it is 12 hours of work.
In my understanding I just made 14,667m
BTC per hour. So I don't see realistically, why I would be obliged to surrender my time for any less than 10,000m
BTC as a consultant. Many people in my level don't just sell their time.
I think the 2927 dollars I "made" was at least partly fees, and perhaps I left some money uninvested in some account. This is parsed from multiple accounts that I control in Mt.Gox in the name of Eesti Investeerimishobe OU. (Remember always to pay your taxes, I pay them legally to Estonia at a flat rate of 0% VAT and 0% corporate tax.)
As for the 10BTC/hr, it's subjective and probably worth it to some people because this is a very specialized field so you can't just call up any old financial advisor, and if nothing else, rpietila has the reputation to be trusted not to run off with your money.
Calling me is voluntary! If you are sure that you cannot recoup the price of my advice, don't call
My number is +358503235950 for consulting calls only. Book your time via SMS and have the bitcoins ready.
Narcissist or not, the guy is honest and a stand-up businessman: a problem I recently had with a silver delivery from him was handled extremely well and to my satisfaction... on a sunday.
Yeah, just remember to notify me when the silver arrives
I redeemed it on its way to the recipient because the delivery took "too long" (as if it was not public knowledge that the postal system treats PM shipments badly).
His motto seems to be: think big, talk big, act big. It's what bitcoin needs (the middle part is optional, but doesn't hurt). As long as he doesn't despise the small business I (and other might) have with him, I cannot attribute him with arrogance, either.
I don't despise anyone, but for the reasons outlined above, I am not very keen on doing small business anymore. The micro-silver-deals that I made in March, were just to gain some postcount really. I think I made a loss on them, but I write it off as marketing expense. In reality I do, and want to do, deals that net me in excess of 10-20,000m
BTC per hour invested. With such wages, I don't need to work much to be able to maintain my lifestyle. I urge the others also to be content with what they have, and if not, buy some bitcoins while they still are cheap.
Happy trading! <3
184.
Post 2095215 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
Asia knows how to do things right. Most airlines in Asia have a policy where flight attendants are 26 years old or younger. Once you hit 27, GTFO of view and go sit behind a desk. Here we're stuck with 50 year old hags who are constantly pissed off.
I think it is more about the attitude than age. Both here in Haikko Manor and in American Airlines, some of the female staff are over 60 years old, and service is like in heaven. They know what they do, and do
not get pissed off no matter how busy you are. I think the balance needs to be there, I would personally not be happy if everyone was younger than me - if nothing else, that reminds me of my mortality.
185.
Post 2096107 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
im buying silver to get out of some of this silly fiat, im looking to start buying more at 21, but if we get near 18, awesome
Take a look of
Silvervault. You can buy silver that is stored securely in a bank vault (controlled by me) in Estonia. Estonia features no VAT on silver, and it is a stable parliamentary republic (in Estonian: "Eesti Vabariik" = the Free Country of the Estonians).
There is no spread in the silver that you buy. No minimums and no maximums. You can take delivery of it or sell it. Very low fees on buying, selling and storage. If you are
not a national or resident of the U.S., Canada or Japan, and have no bank account and no business there, you are eligible to join the free world and be a customer of Silvervault!
I mean for diversification, this is a good way to corner a chunk of the world's physical investment silver with no sweat
186.
Post 2103754 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
Cyprus thing is a joke. That was just speculative mania. I will ask you something: have you invested significant money in Bitcoin? If the answer is yes, how long did it take from the first moment you heard about it?
Again: entering into Bitcoin is a lengthy process - first you have to understand, not only what is Bitcoin but also how to keep your bitcoins safe. Then you have to find out how to buy them, and then you slowly start pouring money, just a little a the beginning.
That's everybody's process. When it will come the day that the average citizen will have the understanding and the means to quickly throw a lot of fiat into Bitcoin after the kind of news we had in March, then.... Well, you cannot imagine the kind of huge motherfucking bubbles we are going to see.
I have to agree with this 100%.
It took me 1 week to put $17 cash into an envelope and mail it to canada to buy my first coins. 2 more weeks to have a miner setup and initiated a bank transfer to gox. I consider that pretty fast and that was only possible because I had all kinds of prerequisites already in place (understanding of crypto, understanding of double spend problem, understanding of p2p network). I had to talk to noone to confirm this thing was legit and most likely functional. There was no misleading press or ponzi accusations all over the net either, which should slow the process even more in this day and age.
Average nowadays is probably more like
6 weeks from first exposure to first substantial buy.
We're thinking too short-term. There's all kinds of buffers (delays) and feedback loops in this system that need time to play out.
Seconded. If you're a goldbug libertarian with technical background and high risk tolerance, it's possible you might "get it" and buy relatively quickly, within a few weeks. But that would be very unusual. My experience with anyone lacking that magical quatrifecta, is that it takes months of investigating and being prodded before any action. There are people I've been talking to about Bitcoin for almost two years, are positive about it, but still haven't pulled the trigger.
It took me more than a year of constant (weekly) highly intelligent exposure to bitcoin, before I bought any. It took an additional year and more, before I allocated a significant % of my holdings to it. I even knew of Bitcoin before Mt.Gox opened, and that was purely theoretical and did not interest me.
So expect a large percent of the ones who heard in early 2013, to buy in with significant money in 2015-2016. Unless they are slower to understand than I was, in which case it takes even longer.
187.
Post 2132950 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
Bitcoin was trading at about $0.1175/m
BTC when I posted my preliminary
explanation of what happened in the summit.
188.
Post 2135558 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
big sell wall pushing the price down. Is it a short and distort?
Its an Idiot Wall. Either an idiot trying to push the price down, or an idiot thinking they were 'selling into (non-existent) strength' when it was rising up to 118, hahaha. Seems more likely to be someone trying to push it down.
You can't speculatively (profitably) long bitcoins, you can only short. So it's probably some supernode trying their capabilities (American likely), but I will be impressed only after breaching $.11. If I can do $.119->$.09752 in 3 days, surely others can do even better!
189.
Post 2136103 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
You can't speculatively (profitably) long bitcoins, you can only short. So it's probably some supernode trying their capabilities (American likely), but I will be impressed only after breaching $.11. If I can do $.119->$.09752 in 3 days, surely others can do even better!
Just check this shit. What I find amazing is that there is people that take this guy half seriously
Um, as for these 450 Mt.Gox trades for the total of 4,496,297m
BTC transferred, I even have the complete record, and willing to post it publicly if sb cares to analyze it..
EDIT: Here you are
Index Date Type Info USD BTC CUM_USD CUM_BTC TIME ELAPSED_H TIME/15MIN
0 5.5.2013 6:30 0 0
1 5.5.2013 6:32 out BTC -1 4,57073688 at 117,06 535,06 -4,57073688 535,06 -4,57073688 0:02:27 1
2 5.5.2013 6:32 out BTC -1 3,96603401 at 117,06 464,27 -3,96603401 999,33 -8,53677089 0:02:27 1
3 5.5.2013 6:33 out BTC -1 20,45271985 at 117,00 2 392,97 -20,45271985 3 392,30 -28,98949074 0:03:28 1
4 5.5.2013 6:34 out BTC -1 1,18386753 at 117,00 138,51 -1,18386753 3 530,81 -30,17335827 0:04:48 1
5 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 20,00000000 at 117,00 2 340,00 -20,00000000 5 870,81 -50,17335827 0:07:13 1
6 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 2,92523456 at 116,40 340,50 -2,92523456 6 211,31 -53,09859283 0:07:18 1
7 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 50,00000000 at 116,40 5 820,00 -50,00000000 12 031,31 -103,09859283 0:07:18 1
8 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 4,81568388 at 116,35 560,30 -4,81568388 12 591,62 -107,91427671 0:07:19 1
9 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,01470000 at 116,30 1,71 -0,01470000 12 593,32 -107,92897671 0:07:19 1
10 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,02438900 at 116,27 2,84 -0,02438900 12 596,16 -107,95336571 0:07:19 1
11 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,01000000 at 116,26 1,16 -0,01000000 12 597,32 -107,96336571 0:07:20 1
12 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,02314910 at 116,25 2,69 -0,02314910 12 600,01 -107,98651481 0:07:20 1
13 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,01424162 at 116,25 1,66 -0,01424162 12 601,67 -108,00075643 0:07:20 1
14 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 5,00000000 at 116,21 581,06 -5,00000000 13 182,72 -113,00075643 0:07:20 1
15 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,02000000 at 116,21 2,32 -0,02000000 13 185,05 -113,02075643 0:07:20 1
16 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 2,97410000 at 116,20 345,59 -2,97410000 13 530,64 -115,99485643 0:07:20 1
17 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,01600320 at 116,20 1,86 -0,01600320 13 532,50 -116,01085963 0:07:20 1
18 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,21760000 at 116,20 25,29 -0,21760000 13 557,78 -116,22845963 0:07:20 1
19 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,02523000 at 116,20 2,93 -0,02523000 13 560,72 -116,25368963 0:07:20 1
20 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,01430900 at 116,20 1,66 -0,01430900 13 562,38 -116,26799863 0:07:20 1
21 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,01000000 at 116,20 1,16 -0,01000000 13 563,54 -116,27799863 0:07:20 1
22 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 33,89535964 at 116,20 3 938,64 -33,89535964 17 502,18 -150,17335827 0:07:20 1
23 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 1,00000000 at 116,21 116,21 -1,00000000 17 618,39 -151,17335827 0:08:31 1
24 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 2,92820000 at 116,20 340,26 -2,92820000 17 958,65 -154,10155827 0:08:31 1
25 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 162,10964245 at 116,20 18 837,14 -162,10964245 36 795,79 -316,21120072 0:08:31 1
26 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 1,32572000 at 116,10 153,92 -1,32572000 36 949,71 -317,53692072 0:08:31 1
27 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 32,63643755 at 116,00 3 785,89 -32,63643755 40 735,60 -350,17335827 0:08:31 1
28 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 0,73729821 at 116,00 85,53 -0,73729821 40 821,13 -350,91065648 0:08:53 1
29 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 4,00000000 at 116,00 464,00 -4,00000000 41 285,13 -354,91065648 0:08:53 1
30 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 1,00000000 at 116,00 116,00 -1,00000000 41 401,13 -355,91065648 0:08:53 1
31 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 1,69384853 at 116,00 196,49 -1,69384853 41 597,62 -357,60450501 0:08:53 1
32 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 0,97650870 at 116,00 113,28 -0,97650870 41 710,89 -358,58101371 0:08:53 1
33 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 8,00000000 at 116,00 928,00 -8,00000000 42 638,89 -366,58101371 0:08:54 1
34 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 10,00000000 at 116,00 1 160,00 -10,00000000 43 798,89 -376,58101371 0:08:54 1
35 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 0,01720000 at 116,00 2,00 -0,01720000 43 800,89 -376,59821371 0:08:54 1
36 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 50,00000000 at 116,00 5 800,00 -50,00000000 49 600,89 -426,59821371 0:08:54 1
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198 5.5.2013 7:27 out BTC -1 21,01768930 at 111,40 2 341,37 -21,01768930 130 121,97 -1 138,89590672 0:57:59 4
199 5.5.2013 7:31 out BTC -1 0,88801770 at 111,50 99,01 -0,88801770 130 220,98 -1 139,78392442 1:01:15 5
200 5.5.2013 7:31 out BTC -1 10,00000000 at 111,50 1 115,00 -10,00000000 131 335,98 -1 149,78392442 1:01:17 5
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202 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,71541255 at 111,50 79,77 -0,71541255 131 926,61 -1 155,08101983 1:02:04 5
203 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 4,23203140 at 111,50 471,87 -4,23203140 132 398,48 -1 159,31305123 1:02:05 5
204 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 5,66745198 at 111,00 629,09 -5,66745198 133 027,57 -1 164,98050321 1:02:18 5
205 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 5,97260000 at 110,00 656,99 -5,97260000 133 684,56 -1 170,95310321 1:02:19 5
206 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 4,91256390 at 110,00 540,38 -4,91256390 134 224,94 -1 175,86566711 1:02:19 5
207 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,00169890 at 110,00 0,19 -0,00169890 134 225,13 -1 175,86736601 1:02:19 5
208 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,15000000 at 109,98 16,50 -0,15000000 134 241,62 -1 176,01736601 1:02:19 5
209 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,02000000 at 109,56 2,19 -0,02000000 134 243,81 -1 176,03736601 1:02:19 5
210 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 25,00000000 at 109,42 2 735,48 -25,00000000 136 979,29 -1 201,03736601 1:02:19 5
211 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,01085944 at 109,36 1,19 -0,01085944 136 980,48 -1 201,04822545 1:02:19 5
212 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 1,00000000 at 109,31 109,31 -1,00000000 137 089,78 -1 202,04822545 1:02:19 5
213 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 1,00000000 at 109,31 109,31 -1,00000000 137 199,09 -1 203,04822545 1:02:19 5
214 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,30740279 at 109,30 33,60 -0,30740279 137 232,69 -1 203,35562824 1:02:19 5
215 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,25494000 at 109,28 27,86 -0,25494000 137 260,55 -1 203,61056824 1:02:19 5
216 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,01846845 at 109,28 2,02 -0,01846845 137 262,57 -1 203,62903669 1:02:19 5
217 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,01082765 at 109,27 1,18 -0,01082765 137 263,75 -1 203,63986434 1:02:19 5
218 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,15779156 at 109,27 17,24 -0,15779156 137 280,99 -1 203,79765590 1:02:19 5
219 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,18000000 at 109,24 19,66 -0,18000000 137 300,66 -1 203,97765590 1:02:20 5
220 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,01000000 at 109,24 1,09 -0,01000000 137 301,75 -1 203,98765590 1:02:20 5
221 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,01086675 at 109,03 1,18 -0,01086675 137 302,93 -1 203,99852265 1:02:20 5
222 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,74928605 at 109,00 81,67 -0,74928605 137 384,60 -1 204,74780870 1:02:20 5
223 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 4,56524253 at 109,00 497,61 -4,56524253 137 882,22 -1 209,31305123 1:02:28 5
224 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 50,00000000 at 109,00 5 450,00 -50,00000000 143 332,22 -1 259,31305123 1:04:38 5
225 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,01804098 at 108,71 1,96 -0,01804098 143 334,18 -1 259,33109221 1:04:38 5
226 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,15779156 at 108,67 17,15 -0,15779156 143 351,32 -1 259,48888377 1:04:38 5
227 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,18000000 at 108,61 19,55 -0,18000000 143 370,87 -1 259,66888377 1:04:38 5
228 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 1,01100001 at 108,61 109,80 -1,01100001 143 480,68 -1 260,67988378 1:04:38 5
229 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,01002561 at 108,57 1,09 -0,01002561 143 481,76 -1 260,68990939 1:04:39 5
230 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,00128773 at 108,52 0,14 -0,00128773 143 481,90 -1 260,69119712 1:04:39 5
231 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,02000000 at 108,50 2,17 -0,02000000 143 484,07 -1 260,71119712 1:04:39 5
232 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,01087987 at 108,38 1,18 -0,01087987 143 485,25 -1 260,72207699 1:04:39 5
233 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,15779156 at 108,37 17,10 -0,15779156 143 502,35 -1 260,87986855 1:04:39 5
234 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 28,43318268 at 108,34 3 080,49 -28,43318268 146 582,84 -1 289,31305123 1:04:39 5
235 5.5.2013 7:36 out BTC -1 2,78237513 at 109,60 304,95 -2,78237513 146 887,79 -1 292,09542636 1:06:27 5
236 5.5.2013 7:36 out BTC -1 81,27780000 at 109,59 8 907,23 -81,27780000 155 795,03 -1 373,37322636 1:06:27 5
237 5.5.2013 7:36 out BTC -1 0,28111433 at 109,50 30,78 -0,28111433 155 825,81 -1 373,65434069 1:06:34 5
238 5.5.2013 7:36 out BTC -1 15,65871054 at 109,50 1 714,63 -15,65871054 157 540,44 -1 389,31305123 1:06:39 5
239 5.5.2013 7:37 out BTC -1 50,00000000 at 109,50 5 475,00 -50,00000000 163 015,44 -1 439,31305123 1:07:08 5
240 5.5.2013 7:38 out BTC -1 42,65846414 at 110,00 4 692,43 -42,65846414 167 707,87 -1 481,97151537 1:08:07 5
241 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 13,89702178 at 108,11 1 502,41 -13,89702178 169 210,28 -1 495,86853715 1:09:17 5
242 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01000000 at 108,11 1,08 -0,01000000 169 211,36 -1 495,87853715 1:09:17 5
243 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,43560000 at 108,10 47,09 -0,43560000 169 258,45 -1 496,31413715 1:09:17 5
244 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 5,93187767 at 108,10 641,24 -5,93187767 169 899,68 -1 502,24601482 1:09:17 5
245 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 42,22996530 at 108,10 4 565,06 -42,22996530 174 464,74 -1 544,47598012 1:09:17 5
246 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01500000 at 108,10 1,62 -0,01500000 174 466,36 -1 544,49098012 1:09:18 5
247 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,15779156 at 108,07 17,05 -0,15779156 174 483,42 -1 544,64877168 1:09:18 5
248 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,18000000 at 108,07 19,45 -0,18000000 174 502,87 -1 544,82877168 1:09:18 5
249 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01088893 at 108,05 1,18 -0,01088893 174 504,04 -1 544,83966061 1:09:19 5
250 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 6,10710000 at 108,00 659,57 -6,10710000 175 163,61 -1 550,94676061 1:09:19 5
251 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 20,00000000 at 108,00 2 160,00 -20,00000000 177 323,61 -1 570,94676061 1:09:19 5
252 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 5,00000000 at 108,00 540,00 -5,00000000 177 863,61 -1 575,94676061 1:09:19 5
253 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,18000000 at 107,98 19,44 -0,18000000 177 883,05 -1 576,12676061 1:09:19 5
254 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 2,63238565 at 107,89 284,01 -2,63238565 178 167,06 -1 578,75914626 1:09:19 5
255 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,25663000 at 107,88 27,69 -0,25663000 178 194,74 -1 579,01577626 1:09:19 5
256 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 2,63249780 at 107,79 283,76 -2,63249780 178 478,51 -1 581,64827406 1:09:19 5
257 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 8,23979330 at 107,79 888,17 -8,23979330 179 366,67 -1 589,88806736 1:09:19 5
258 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,15779156 at 107,77 17,01 -0,15779156 179 383,68 -1 590,04585892 1:09:19 5
259 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 35,00000000 at 107,76 3 771,74 -35,00000000 183 155,42 -1 625,04585892 1:09:19 5
260 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,10110000 at 107,74 10,89 -0,10110000 183 166,31 -1 625,14695892 1:09:19 5
261 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01089963 at 107,73 1,17 -0,01089963 183 167,48 -1 625,15785855 1:09:19 5
262 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01500000 at 107,66 1,61 -0,01500000 183 169,10 -1 625,17285855 1:09:20 5
263 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,03141000 at 107,61 3,38 -0,03141000 183 172,48 -1 625,20426855 1:09:20 5
264 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 50,00000000 at 107,51 5 375,50 -50,00000000 188 547,98 -1 675,20426855 1:09:20 5
265 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 6,76724682 at 107,50 727,48 -6,76724682 189 275,46 -1 681,97151537 1:09:20 5
266 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,09155800 at 109,49 10,02 -0,09155800 189 285,48 -1 682,06307337 1:09:55 5
267 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01200000 at 108,65 1,30 -0,01200000 189 286,79 -1 682,07507337 1:09:55 5
268 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,02013288 at 108,62 2,19 -0,02013288 189 288,97 -1 682,09520625 1:09:55 5
269 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01173511 at 108,42 1,27 -0,01173511 189 290,25 -1 682,10694136 1:09:55 5
270 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,29026576 at 108,41 31,47 -0,29026576 189 321,71 -1 682,39720712 1:09:55 5
271 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,31696634 at 108,41 34,36 -0,31696634 189 356,07 -1 682,71417346 1:09:56 5
272 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 2,91359893 at 108,24 315,36 -2,91359893 189 671,44 -1 685,62777239 1:09:56 5
273 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,05000000 at 108,12 5,41 -0,05000000 189 676,84 -1 685,67777239 1:09:56 5
274 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 2,48513275 at 108,11 268,68 -2,48513275 189 945,52 -1 688,16290514 1:09:56 5
275 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01217520 at 108,10 1,32 -0,01217520 189 946,84 -1 688,17508034 1:09:56 5
276 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,17440000 at 107,80 18,80 -0,17440000 189 965,64 -1 688,34948034 1:09:56 5
277 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01000000 at 107,54 1,08 -0,01000000 189 966,71 -1 688,35948034 1:09:56 5
278 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 51,16545143 at 107,50 5 500,29 -51,16545143 195 467,00 -1 739,52493177 1:09:56 5
279 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 6,96564586 at 107,50 748,81 -6,96564586 196 215,81 -1 746,49057763 1:09:56 5
280 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,25052687 at 107,50 26,93 -0,25052687 196 242,74 -1 746,74110450 1:09:56 5
281 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,08338000 at 107,47 8,96 -0,08338000 196 251,70 -1 746,82448450 1:09:56 5
282 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,15779156 at 107,47 16,96 -0,15779156 196 268,66 -1 746,98227606 1:09:56 5
283 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 5,00000000 at 107,45 537,25 -5,00000000 196 805,91 -1 751,98227606 1:09:56 5
284 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,18000000 at 107,44 19,34 -0,18000000 196 825,24 -1 752,16227606 1:09:57 5
285 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,20000000 at 107,42 21,48 -0,20000000 196 846,73 -1 752,36227606 1:09:57 5
286 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01090972 at 107,41 1,17 -0,01090972 196 847,90 -1 752,37318578 1:09:57 5
287 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 3,00000000 at 107,40 322,20 -3,00000000 197 170,10 -1 755,37318578 1:09:57 5
288 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 30,00000000 at 107,40 3 222,00 -30,00000000 200 392,10 -1 785,37318578 1:09:57 5
289 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,13115520 at 107,38 14,08 -0,13115520 200 406,18 -1 785,50434098 1:09:57 5
290 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,02000000 at 107,37 2,15 -0,02000000 200 408,33 -1 785,52434098 1:09:57 5
291 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 42,00000000 at 107,32 4 507,61 -42,00000000 204 915,94 -1 827,52434098 1:09:57 5
292 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01874936 at 107,31 2,01 -0,01874936 204 917,95 -1 827,54309034 1:09:57 5
293 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01073960 at 107,31 1,15 -0,01073960 204 919,10 -1 827,55382994 1:09:57 5
294 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 10,00000000 at 107,30 1 073,00 -10,00000000 205 992,10 -1 837,55382994 1:09:57 5
295 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 7,00000000 at 107,26 750,82 -7,00000000 206 742,92 -1 844,55382994 1:09:58 5
296 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 25,00000000 at 107,25 2 681,25 -25,00000000 209 424,17 -1 869,55382994 1:09:58 5
297 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 5,00000000 at 107,25 536,25 -5,00000000 209 960,42 -1 874,55382994 1:09:58 5
298 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 7,41768543 at 107,23 795,40 -7,41768543 210 755,82 -1 881,97151537 1:09:58 5
299 5.5.2013 7:51 out BTC -1 6,65673991 at 109,20 726,92 -6,65673991 211 482,74 -1 888,62825528 1:21:18 6
300 7.5.2013 11:36 out BTC -1 0,16997175 at 109,00 18,53 -0,16997175 211 501,26 -1 888,79822703 53:06:03 213
301 7.5.2013 11:39 out BTC -1 9,00000000 at 109,00 980,99 -9,00000000 212 482,26 -1 897,79822703 53:09:43 213
302 7.5.2013 11:39 out BTC -1 0,01009385 at 109,00 1,10 -0,01009385 212 483,36 -1 897,80832088 53:09:52 213
303 7.5.2013 11:40 out BTC -1 1,30960274 at 109,00 142,75 -1,30960274 212 626,10 -1 899,11792362 53:10:14 213
304 7.5.2013 11:40 out BTC -1 4,05010000 at 109,00 441,46 -4,05010000 213 067,56 -1 903,16802362 53:10:22 213
305 7.5.2013 11:46 out BTC -1 5,72352093 at 109,00 623,86 -5,72352093 213 691,42 -1 908,89154455 53:16:31 214
306 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 3,40850542 at 108,81 370,88 -3,40850542 214 062,30 -1 912,30004997 53:26:14 214
307 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 8,99000000 at 108,80 978,11 -8,99000000 215 040,41 -1 921,29004997 53:26:39 214
308 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 5,93080000 at 108,21 641,75 -5,93080000 215 682,15 -1 927,22084997 53:26:39 214
309 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 98,00000000 at 108,20 10 604,05 -98,00000000 226 286,20 -2 025,22084997 53:26:39 214
310 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01171830 at 108,20 1,27 -0,01171830 226 287,47 -2 025,23256827 53:26:39 214
311 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,05124207 at 108,16 5,54 -0,05124207 226 293,01 -2 025,28381034 53:26:39 214
312 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01277568 at 108,16 1,38 -0,01277568 226 294,39 -2 025,29658602 53:26:40 214
313 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01189902 at 108,16 1,29 -0,01189902 226 295,68 -2 025,30848504 53:26:40 214
314 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,05000000 at 108,16 5,41 -0,05000000 226 301,09 -2 025,35848504 53:26:40 214
315 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01229290 at 108,16 1,33 -0,01229290 226 302,42 -2 025,37077794 53:26:40 214
316 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01291526 at 108,16 1,40 -0,01291526 226 303,81 -2 025,38369320 53:26:40 214
317 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01000000 at 108,16 1,08 -0,01000000 226 304,90 -2 025,39369320 53:26:40 214
318 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01217000 at 108,16 1,32 -0,01217000 226 306,21 -2 025,40586320 53:26:40 214
319 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01640000 at 108,14 1,77 -0,01640000 226 307,99 -2 025,42226320 53:26:40 214
320 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01600000 at 108,13 1,73 -0,01600000 226 309,72 -2 025,43826320 53:26:40 214
321 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 1,00000000 at 108,00 108,00 -1,00000000 226 417,72 -2 026,43826320 53:26:40 214
322 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 3,28375234 at 108,00 354,65 -3,28375234 226 772,36 -2 029,72201554 53:26:42 214
323 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 2,57803443 at 108,00 278,43 -2,57803443 227 050,79 -2 032,30004997 53:26:42 214
324 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,09149458 at 108,81 9,96 -0,09149458 227 060,74 -2 032,39154455 53:26:50 214
325 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 5,00000000 at 108,82 544,10 -5,00000000 227 604,84 -2 037,39154455 53:26:50 214
326 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 44,74878166 at 108,75 4 866,43 -44,74878166 232 471,27 -2 082,14032621 53:28:11 214
327 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,60125439 at 107,93 64,89 -0,60125439 232 536,17 -2 082,74158060 53:28:18 214
328 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,04080000 at 107,75 4,40 -0,04080000 232 540,56 -2 082,78238060 53:28:18 214
329 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,01716030 at 107,73 1,85 -0,01716030 232 542,41 -2 082,79954090 53:28:18 214
330 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,01100000 at 107,73 1,19 -0,01100000 232 543,60 -2 082,81054090 53:28:18 214
331 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,01151029 at 107,73 1,24 -0,01151029 232 544,84 -2 082,82205119 53:28:18 214
332 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,05000000 at 107,72 5,39 -0,05000000 232 550,22 -2 082,87205119 53:28:18 214
333 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,01700000 at 107,72 1,83 -0,01700000 232 552,05 -2 082,88905119 53:28:19 214
334 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,01116000 at 107,71 1,20 -0,01116000 232 553,25 -2 082,90021119 53:28:19 214
335 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,05060000 at 107,71 5,45 -0,05060000 232 558,70 -2 082,95081119 53:28:19 214
336 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,02000000 at 107,70 2,15 -0,02000000 232 560,86 -2 082,97081119 53:28:19 214
337 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 7,39500000 at 107,66 796,12 -7,39500000 233 356,98 -2 090,36581119 53:28:19 214
338 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 5,92010000 at 107,66 637,34 -5,92010000 233 994,32 -2 096,28591119 53:28:19 214
339 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,20000000 at 107,66 21,53 -0,20000000 234 015,86 -2 096,48591119 53:28:19 214
340 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,10860000 at 107,42 11,67 -0,10860000 234 027,52 -2 096,59451119 53:28:19 214
341 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 3,03367841 at 107,41 325,86 -3,03367841 234 353,38 -2 099,62818960 53:28:19 214
342 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,15916370 at 107,38 17,09 -0,15916370 234 370,47 -2 099,78735330 53:28:19 214
343 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 10,05300000 at 107,37 1 079,34 -10,05300000 235 449,82 -2 109,84035330 53:28:19 214
344 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 22,29997291 at 107,36 2 394,13 -22,29997291 237 843,94 -2 132,14032621 53:28:19 214
345 7.5.2013 12:26 in BTC 1 4,68858770 at 104,14 -488,27 4,68858770 237 355,67 -2 127,45173851 53:56:26 216
346 7.5.2013 12:27 in BTC 1 95,31141230 at 104,14 -9 925,73 95,31141230 227 429,94 -2 032,14032621 53:57:07 216
347 7.5.2013 12:53 in BTC 1 25,00000000 at 104,02 -2 600,50 25,00000000 224 829,44 -2 007,14032621 54:23:55 218
348 7.5.2013 12:54 in BTC 1 10,00000000 at 103,62 -1 036,22 10,00000000 223 793,22 -1 997,14032621 54:24:19 218
349 7.5.2013 12:54 in BTC 1 50,00000000 at 103,50 -5 175,00 50,00000000 218 618,22 -1 947,14032621 54:24:20 218
350 7.5.2013 12:55 in BTC 1 0,10000000 at 103,50 -10,35 0,10000000 218 607,87 -1 947,04032621 54:25:25 218
351 7.5.2013 12:55 in BTC 1 1,10000000 at 103,50 -113,85 1,10000000 218 494,02 -1 945,94032621 54:25:33 218
352 7.5.2013 12:55 in BTC 1 0,00064911 at 103,50 -0,07 0,00064911 218 493,95 -1 945,93967710 54:25:37 218
353 7.5.2013 12:55 in BTC 1 98,79935089 at 103,50 -10 225,73 98,79935089 208 268,22 -1 847,14032621 54:25:56 218
354 7.5.2013 12:55 in BTC 1 19,40000000 at 103,35 -2 004,99 19,40000000 206 263,23 -1 827,74032621 54:25:56 218
355 7.5.2013 12:55 in BTC 1 6,72779834 at 103,25 -694,62 6,72779834 205 568,61 -1 821,01252787 54:25:57 218
356 7.5.2013 12:56 in BTC 1 18,27220166 at 103,25 -1 886,53 18,27220166 203 682,09 -1 802,74032621 54:26:47 218
357 7.5.2013 12:56 in BTC 1 36,00000000 at 103,15 -3 713,40 36,00000000 199 968,69 -1 766,74032621 54:26:54 218
358 7.5.2013 12:59 in BTC 1 0,57868893 at 103,10 -59,66 0,57868893 199 909,03 -1 766,16163728 54:29:22 218
359 7.5.2013 12:59 in BTC 1 49,42131107 at 103,10 -5 095,34 49,42131107 194 813,69 -1 716,74032621 54:29:36 218
360 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 7,67300443 at 103,98 -797,84 7,67300443 194 015,85 -1 709,06732178 54:33:09 219
361 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 36,89455683 at 104,00 -3 837,00 36,89455683 190 178,85 -1 672,17276495 54:33:09 219
362 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 0,25922125 at 104,00 -26,96 0,25922125 190 151,89 -1 671,91354370 54:33:09 219
363 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 0,10000000 at 104,00 -10,40 0,10000000 190 141,49 -1 671,81354370 54:33:09 219
364 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 0,01000000 at 104,00 -1,04 0,01000000 190 140,45 -1 671,80354370 54:33:10 219
365 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 18,40000000 at 104,00 -1 913,60 18,40000000 188 226,85 -1 653,40354370 54:33:10 219
366 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 20,00000000 at 104,00 -2 080,00 20,00000000 186 146,85 -1 633,40354370 54:33:10 219
367 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 0,29335752 at 104,00 -30,51 0,29335752 186 116,35 -1 633,11018618 54:33:10 219
368 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 10,00000000 at 104,00 -1 040,00 10,00000000 185 076,35 -1 623,11018618 54:33:14 219
369 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 10,00000000 at 104,00 -1 040,00 10,00000000 184 036,35 -1 613,11018618 54:33:21 219
370 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 10,00000000 at 104,00 -1 040,00 10,00000000 182 996,35 -1 603,11018618 54:33:23 219
371 7.5.2013 13:22 in BTC 1 21,42060818 at 102,78 -2 201,61 21,42060818 180 794,73 -1 581,68957800 54:52:06 220
372 7.5.2013 13:22 in BTC 1 18,41000000 at 102,78 -1 892,18 18,41000000 178 902,56 -1 563,27957800 54:52:13 220
373 7.5.2013 13:22 in BTC 1 0,03404736 at 102,78 -3,50 0,03404736 178 899,06 -1 563,24553064 54:52:16 220
374 7.5.2013 13:22 in BTC 1 10,13534446 at 102,78 -1 041,71 10,13534446 177 857,35 -1 553,11018618 54:52:31 220
375 7.5.2013 13:22 in BTC 1 6,21495031 at 102,60 -637,65 6,21495031 177 219,69 -1 546,89523587 54:52:33 220
376 7.5.2013 13:22 in BTC 1 0,03633451 at 102,60 -3,73 0,03633451 177 215,96 -1 546,85890136 54:52:46 220
377 7.5.2013 13:23 in BTC 1 0,00285158 at 102,60 -0,29 0,00285158 177 215,67 -1 546,85604978 54:53:05 220
378 7.5.2013 13:23 in BTC 1 6,80980864 at 102,60 -698,69 6,80980864 176 516,98 -1 540,04624114 54:53:13 220
379 7.5.2013 13:23 in BTC 1 5,00000000 at 102,60 -513,00 5,00000000 176 003,98 -1 535,04624114 54:53:21 220
380 7.5.2013 13:23 in BTC 1 5,00000000 at 102,60 -513,00 5,00000000 175 490,98 -1 530,04624114 54:53:22 220
381 7.5.2013 13:23 in BTC 1 35,49420726 at 102,60 -3 641,71 35,49420726 171 849,28 -1 494,55203388 54:53:29 220
382 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 4,99847571 at 104,51 522,40 -4,99847571 172 371,67 -1 499,55050959 55:18:06 222
383 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 1,00000000 at 104,51 104,51 -1,00000000 172 476,18 -1 500,55050959 55:18:07 222
384 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01917000 at 104,31 2,00 -0,01917000 172 478,18 -1 500,56967959 55:18:07 222
385 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01200000 at 104,30 1,25 -0,01200000 172 479,44 -1 500,58167959 55:18:07 222
386 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01300000 at 104,30 1,36 -0,01300000 172 480,79 -1 500,59467959 55:18:07 222
387 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,67000000 at 104,30 69,88 -0,67000000 172 550,67 -1 501,26467959 55:18:07 222
388 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 4,00000000 at 104,30 417,20 -4,00000000 172 967,87 -1 505,26467959 55:18:07 222
389 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01905000 at 104,30 1,99 -0,01905000 172 969,86 -1 505,28372959 55:18:07 222
390 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01850000 at 104,30 1,93 -0,01850000 172 971,79 -1 505,30222959 55:18:07 222
391 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01860000 at 104,30 1,94 -0,01860000 172 973,73 -1 505,32082959 55:18:07 222
392 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01356000 at 104,30 1,41 -0,01356000 172 975,15 -1 505,33438959 55:18:08 222
393 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01400000 at 104,30 1,46 -0,01400000 172 976,61 -1 505,34838959 55:18:08 222
394 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01400000 at 104,30 1,46 -0,01400000 172 978,07 -1 505,36238959 55:18:08 222
395 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01200000 at 104,30 1,25 -0,01200000 172 979,32 -1 505,37438959 55:18:08 222
396 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01985594 at 104,30 2,07 -0,01985594 172 981,39 -1 505,39424553 55:18:08 222
397 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 5,95030000 at 104,30 620,62 -5,95030000 173 602,00 -1 511,34454553 55:18:12 222
398 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 3,20748835 at 104,30 334,54 -3,20748835 173 936,55 -1 514,55203388 55:18:19 222
399 7.5.2013 13:53 out BTC -1 2,76845508 at 104,40 289,03 -2,76845508 174 225,57 -1 517,32048896 55:23:14 222
400 7.5.2013 13:53 out BTC -1 0,51259146 at 104,30 53,46 -0,51259146 174 279,04 -1 517,83308042 55:23:14 222
401 7.5.2013 13:53 out BTC -1 4,71895346 at 104,30 492,19 -4,71895346 174 771,22 -1 522,55203388 55:23:14 222
402 7.5.2013 14:08 in BTC 1 3,97684770 at 102,60 -408,02 3,97684770 174 363,20 -1 518,57518618 55:38:34 223
403 7.5.2013 14:08 in BTC 1 25,00000000 at 102,57 -2 564,25 25,00000000 171 798,95 -1 493,57518618 55:38:34 223
404 7.5.2013 14:19 in BTC 1 50,00000000 at 102,12 -5 106,00 50,00000000 166 692,95 -1 443,57518618 55:49:55 224
405 7.5.2013 14:21 in BTC 1 50,00000000 at 101,61 -5 080,50 50,00000000 161 612,45 -1 393,57518618 55:51:25 224
406 7.5.2013 14:23 in BTC 1 50,00000000 at 101,21 -5 060,50 50,00000000 156 551,95 -1 343,57518618 55:53:02 224
407 7.5.2013 14:32 in BTC 1 100,00000000 at 100,01 -10 001,00 100,00000000 146 550,95 -1 243,57518618 56:02:40 225
408 7.5.2013 14:42 in BTC 1 389,00000000 at 98,50 -38 316,50 389,00000000 108 234,45 -854,57518618 56:12:34 225
409 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 9,19873475 at 102,00 -938,27 9,19873475 107 296,18 -845,37645143 56:31:01 227
410 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 0,22000000 at 102,00 -22,44 0,22000000 107 273,74 -845,15645143 56:31:02 227
411 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 0,01200000 at 102,00 -1,22 0,01200000 107 272,51 -845,14445143 56:31:02 227
412 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 26,43682160 at 102,00 -2 696,56 26,43682160 104 575,96 -818,70762983 56:31:02 227
413 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 1,67000000 at 102,00 -170,34 1,67000000 104 405,62 -817,03762983 56:31:02 227
414 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 6,00000000 at 102,00 -612,00 6,00000000 103 793,62 -811,03762983 56:31:02 227
415 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 5,00000000 at 102,00 -510,00 5,00000000 103 283,62 -806,03762983 56:31:02 227
416 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 5,49000000 at 102,10 -560,52 5,49000000 102 723,09 -800,54762983 56:31:02 227
417 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 4,95000000 at 102,10 -505,39 4,95000000 102 217,70 -795,59762983 56:31:02 227
418 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 2,94790000 at 102,20 -301,28 2,94790000 101 916,43 -792,64972983 56:31:08 227
419 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 0,10000000 at 102,20 -10,22 0,10000000 101 906,21 -792,54972983 56:31:21 227
420 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 19,35357691 at 102,20 -1 977,94 19,35357691 99 928,27 -773,19615292 56:31:32 227
421 7.5.2013 15:14 in BTC 1 12,72764294 at 100,10 -1 274,04 12,72764294 98 654,24 -760,46850998 56:44:12 227
422 7.5.2013 15:14 in BTC 1 0,02423760 at 100,50 -2,44 0,02423760 98 651,80 -760,44427238 56:44:21 227
423 7.5.2013 15:14 in BTC 1 20,82880635 at 100,50 -2 093,30 20,82880635 96 558,50 -739,61546603 56:44:37 227
424 7.5.2013 15:28 in BTC 1 0,53000000 at 102,30 -54,22 0,53000000 96 504,29 -739,08546603 56:58:53 228
425 7.5.2013 15:28 in BTC 1 0,26361906 at 102,30 -26,97 0,26361906 96 477,32 -738,82184697 56:58:56 228
426 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 0,88493679 at 102,30 -90,53 0,88493679 96 386,79 -737,93691018 56:59:00 228
427 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 7,26845564 at 102,30 -743,56 7,26845564 95 643,23 -730,66845454 56:59:01 228
428 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 0,04390000 at 102,30 -4,49 0,04390000 95 638,73 -730,62455454 56:59:02 228
429 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 0,01723873 at 102,30 -1,76 0,01723873 95 636,97 -730,60731581 56:59:08 228
430 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 0,01803154 at 102,30 -1,84 0,01803154 95 635,13 -730,58928427 56:59:37 228
431 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 0,01200000 at 102,30 -1,23 0,01200000 95 633,90 -730,57728427 56:59:44 228
432 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 13,00000000 at 102,30 -1 329,90 13,00000000 94 304,00 -717,57728427 56:59:54 228
433 7.5.2013 15:30 in BTC 1 9,96000000 at 102,30 -1 018,91 9,96000000 93 285,09 -707,61728427 57:00:17 229
434 7.5.2013 15:30 in BTC 1 0,01602143 at 102,30 -1,64 0,01602143 93 283,45 -707,60126284 57:00:17 229
435 7.5.2013 15:31 in BTC 1 0,01529068 at 102,30 -1,56 0,01529068 93 281,89 -707,58597216 57:01:08 229
436 7.5.2013 15:35 in BTC 1 517,86520581 at 102,00 -52 822,25 517,86520581 40 459,64 -189,72076635 57:05:09 229
437 7.5.2013 15:35 in BTC 1 0,01000000 at 102,00 -1,02 0,01000000 40 458,62 -189,71076635 57:05:10 229
438 7.5.2013 15:40 in BTC 1 124,32657218 at 102,30 -12 718,61 124,32657218 27 740,01 -65,38419417 57:10:52 229
439 7.5.2013 15:40 in BTC 1 35,67342782 at 102,30 -3 649,39 35,67342782 24 090,62 -29,71076635 57:10:54 229
440 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 65,38373398 at 102,73 -6 716,87 65,38373398 17 373,74 35,67296763 57:16:17 230
441 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 34,61626602 at 102,80 -3 558,55 34,61626602 13 815,19 70,28923365 57:16:17 230
442 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 25,22417518 at 102,93 -2 596,32 25,22417518 11 218,87 95,51340883 57:16:58 230
443 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 3,00000000 at 102,93 -308,80 3,00000000 10 910,06 98,51340883 57:16:58 230
444 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 0,03997272 at 102,94 -4,11 0,03997272 10 905,95 98,55338155 57:16:58 230
445 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 0,01181504 at 102,94 -1,22 0,01181504 10 904,73 98,56519659 57:16:58 230
446 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 0,02008152 at 102,94 -2,07 0,02008152 10 902,67 98,58527811 57:16:58 230
447 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 0,02158042 at 102,95 -2,22 0,02158042 10 900,44 98,60685853 57:16:58 230
448 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 2,00000000 at 102,96 -205,92 2,00000000 10 694,53 100,60685853 57:16:59 230
449 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 0,10000000 at 102,98 -10,30 0,10000000 10 684,23 100,70685853 57:16:59 230
450 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 75,30945612 at 103,00 -7 756,87 75,30945612 2 927,36 176,01631465 57:16:59 230
I think I have to coin a 1984ish word, "untrue", to be used every time somebody posts a claim, which is total bullshit, but luckily easily refutable by truth.
190.
Post 2136273 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
You get to watch a third-generation copy of a VHS of the conference - -
There will indeed be a 20-30 minute video briefing, we have 4 hours of footage shot on Saturday during the public seminar.
Perhaps the trailer would be available this week.
191.
Post 2136346 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
best wishes reptilia, but seriously, I don't know what to think about you... you are quite the enigma and I'd rather not be a part of your melodrama.
Despite the fact that about $100k is scammed from me annually, plus I lost 1,100,000m
BTC two weeks back and possibly more last week, the following statement is true:
"I have never possessed the private key to any less than 2,400,000mBTC nor any more than 35,000,000mBTC, at any time since the beginning of 2012."I guess that puts me on the map. I think I was among the wealthiest people in the summit.
192.
Post 2136496 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
best wishes reptilia, but seriously, I don't know what to think about you... you are quite the enigma and I'd rather not be a part of your melodrama.
Despite the fact that about $100k is scammed from me annually, plus I lost 1,100,000m
BTC two weeks back and possibly more last week, the following statement is true:
"I have never possessed the private key to any less than 2,400,000mBTC nor any more than 35,000,000mBTC, at any time since the beginning of 2012."I guess that puts me on the map. I think I was among the wealthiest people in the summit.
You should really do something about your security situation if you're being scammed out of that much on a regular basis.
You should pay someone to physically recover these assets if you know who stole them. This is easily arranged for a percentage of anything recovered.
whether bitcoins were stolen or lost during the summit (and the latter we can never know conclusively).
I am already spending quite much on security. But it is sometimes smarter than you think (and definitely more expensive). The total size of my delegation in Haikko was 10. By "my delegation" I mean everybody (and the families thereof) who was there full time at my expense, was or was not paid for his time, and took orders from me, NOT including the hotel staff, who ceased taking orders at some point, prompting me to evacuate the area for ongoing security concerns.
I have several juicy stories on how seriously I took the security and how blatantly, almost criminally, the hotel failed in most counts.
What I am currently waiting for, is an official apology in writing from the CEO of Vuoristo-Yhtiöt Oy,
Juha Mähönen (or any of his superiors, in case he is fired). The apology will be published in bitcointalk.
Otherwise they will have to provide me an opportunity to pay the hotel bill. Even this was too difficult for the hotel yesterday.
193.
Post 2137180 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
he would never have possessed the key to any at all.
Untrue.
Proof.
194.
Post 2137223 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
I have a hard time understanding, why this forum features a bunch of people who seem to have no concept of truth vs. untruth. They somehow feel that it is OK to post some of the latter kind, under the guise of "all speech is equal".
Guys, it is a serious disability, to not be able to tell a truth apart from lie.
I mean, I don't punish you, if you do not even come to same ballpark with me. But I would like you to come, and you just have to change. Otherwise you're not going to make it.
Some people, including the CEO of Vuoristo-Yhtiöt, just have to awake from their dream that everything is OK in their dreamworld.
195.
Post 2141096 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
0.0th class supernode = BTC1M
0.5th class supernode = BTC100,000
1.0st class supernode = BTC10,000
1.5th class supernode = BTC3,000
2.0nd class supernode = BTC1,000
2.5th class supernode = BTC300
3.0th class supernode = BTC100
Ah. So basically it's a how big is my penis list. Thanks, now I get it.
No. I would compare it to the population, or GDP rather. You are acting silly.
196.
Post 2141181 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
Just as a sidenote, do you also regard Goat as evil, solely because he is rich?
197.
Post 2141819 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
I'm pretty evil. Fiat/BTC just lets be have more fun while being evil
Yes, and I am not evil. So nothing in common. But if you can offer me (5-20 people) an asylum, I would be delighted!
On-topic: I think USDBTC is irrelevant, since it is possible to manipulate the price with 1000:1 leverage.
198.
Post 2141928 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
Buy bitcoins while you still can!
199.
Post 2153052 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
I think it was a well played crash last night,
but I also think that it's over. When I
decided to buy 205,727mBTC using market order from .10273->.103 in 7th May, 15:46 UTC after 2 visitations sub-.1, I did that in anticipation that we would never see .103 again. I think we are going up from now.
EDIT: Seems that we visited .10302, so the others also thought that it is unlikely to go that low again.
EDIT2: I did not play last night, I slept with my family in my home in Helsinki.
EDIT3: Rampion is not welcome to post to my thread (I needed to lock it due to his harassment). I don't think he understands when he lost, though. He seems to be too young to be given a reminder of the importance of thinking before posting.
200.
Post 2171887 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.59h):
"I am currently detained in a psychiatric institution in Helsinki, because I need rest. My physical well-being is taken care of."
Edit: Do psych wards have wifi?
That depends - currently I use my own equipment. But seriously guys, the whole idea is that this would be a period of
rest for me. I have worked too hard, gotten irritated, and my behavior has not been up to the par. So now I will take a rest and mind my own business in calm quietness for days, weeks or months. They will tell me when I am clear to leave. Just forget about me, until I come public again.
If everybody talks about me all the time, what difference does it even make whether I am here or not?? Roni Blomberg (rontus). Ambassador-at-Large of rpietila supernode in
San Jose.
If somebody believes that
I do not even exist, there is a good way to find out. If
rontus does not appear to San Fransisco airport with flight SK3713 scheduled to land at 12:20 PST (in about 30 minutes from now, though I don't know or care if it's early or late), I am probably a bullshitter. If he does, but denies being my Ambassador-at-Large, I am a joker. If however he comes with Annina, who is a tall and beautiful lady, and they both tell stories about the Haikko Summit, and express their reverence towards me who sent them there (even though I was physically detained in an institution), you just have to believe me
and leave me alone. Right? Please..?
201.
Post 2172273 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.59h):
Roni Blomberg (rontus). Ambassador-at-Large of rpietila supernode in
San Jose.
If however he [rontus] comes with Annina, who is a tall and beautiful lady, and they both tell stories about the Haikko Summit - -
Shit, if a tall and beautiful woman shows up at a Bitcoin conference we're all doomed anyway.
We are flexing our supernode muscle: I decided to project considerable force (including my presence) to another continent with approximately 60-hour lead time (from the idea to the operative capability in the target city). It took too great a toll from me and I ended up minding my own business here. I sent only a 2-ppl detachment to the Bay area, but they are my Ambassadors and
have full authority to spend as many bitcoins as deemed necessary to subdue all, as well as I myself am subdued under the authority of Finnish government right now. Authority is a key if you want to do something cool (
anything, really..)
First Class Bitcoin Supernode
- Sovereign ability to run, manage and develop the Bitcoin network in absence of any other entities.
- 24/7 monitoring, technical, and trading ability, connections with most relevant Bitcoin power centers, accounts in all relevant exchanges
- Global operation, capacity to set up activities in most jurisdictions with minimum lead times, access to all specialists (bankers, lawyers, tech) globally
- Able to generate its own funding indefinitely regardless of bitcoin exchange value, or backed by an entity wealthy enough to support the operations indefinitely in absence of cash flow from operations
- Minimum full-time staff in command&control structure: 5-10
202.
Post 2177267 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.59h):
Sorry to steal the show, but even after spending 36 hours in an emergency care unit, I still think $1,000+ peak valuation is unstoppable before Christmas. My experiences tell that even the patients here are eager to buy by the truckload, as soon as they get into the position to do so. Not everyone was picked when he had all his belongings packed to two nice cabin bags (+the silver).
203.
Post 2177323 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.59h):
Thanks for sharing your market analysis out of the psychiatry, reptilia. 300k USD until Christmas!
I assume, no pun intended.
It may go to $5000 at the peak of the valuation bubble; long term $300 is sustainable.
204.
Post 2177752 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.59h):
missed your comments man.. hows the psychiatry ward??? Feel safe??
I do not have permission to disclose my exact location (or anything at all really) concerning the matters of my person. But I will find out today, which of the matters are classified. Anyway I still need rest after the Haikko fiasco, and in no way I will be going anywhere at all for several days, so I can as well try to make the most out of it by taking the rest I need.
As for safety, I do not know any official classification of this place, but my gut feeling is that in order for anyone (which means,
anyone) to take me out of here alive, it requires an operation that cannot be planned in secret, and the lead time is minimum 48 hours. If dead, it can be achieved relatively quickly, but there will be considerable (100,000+) collateral damage if the success needs to be achieved at a greater than 75% probability.
Naturally most c&c structures in the world are not capable of doing even that. I know of one, and I already know that they may not like me, so I am not really welcome in their sphere of peaceful influence. Here I can continue minding my own business in relative comfort. Currently my greatest annoyance is the smell of cigarette ash in the only place where I am allowed to breathe fresh air, and I will tell you when I have neutralized the problem.
He's talking about mBTC. In other words a million dollars per bitcoin.
Yes, I switched to m
BTC last week. In other words, m
BTC is omitted.
205.
Post 2177873 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.59h):
You are seriously one of the best trolls i've seen in a long time.
Your time seems to extend all the way back to
April 08, 2013, 03:13:50 PM.
I was there when it was still not possible to buy from Mt.Gox with more than $1000 per day without influencing the price by 10%+, for which reason I regarded it as a children's playground (and later paid 500kEUR+ for my mistake)
206.
Post 2430828 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
To me, it seems that Bitcoin is resting on the 6mo-exp trendline with low volume, and $.12 is the new $0.005.
There is not much to do than to hold (holding = buy bitcoins with everything that you can spare).
It is becoming unlikely that we'll see $300 this year.
I am fine, thank you.
207.
Post 2438959 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
We are in the "early/pricing" stage of an exponentially growing (later: S-growing) phenomenon. If everything goes as it has done in several bubbles before, the great bubble will form when 1-2% of the population had adopted the technology. For Bitcoin, this means about 50 million adapters that actually use bitcoin for something. This "something" has so far been lagging, though.
I withdrew my prediction for $300 for 2013, but this does not mean that I was sure it will not happen. In 2014 it will happen for sure. Or some 1.5-sigma event happens.
The great moves have been able to push the price up roughly by an order of magnitude. We need 4 such moves and the rest of this year is not long enough time. April-June 2014 is now my target.
Current price I would just buy as much as I can.
208.
Post 2441507 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
We are in the "early/pricing" stage of an exponentially growing (later: S-growing) phenomenon. If everything goes as it has done in several bubbles before, the great bubble will form when 1-2% of the population had adopted the technology. For Bitcoin, this means about 50 million adapters that actually use bitcoin for something. This "something" has so far been lagging, though.
I withdrew my prediction for $300 for 2013, but this does not mean that I was sure it will not happen. In 2014 it will happen for sure. Or some 1.5-sigma event happens.
The great moves have been able to push the price up roughly by an order of magnitude. We need 4 such moves and the rest of this year is not long enough time. April-June 2014 is now my target.
Current price I would just buy as much as I can.
Are you expecting at least one 10-fold move this year, though?
I think it is certainly
possible for it
not to happen (in which case this would be a lame year of anything between 500-3000% growth
) but considering:
1. bitcoin adoption rates even now,
2. and the spread of information rate,
3. and the ease of developing Bitcoin-services,
4. and the superiority of bitcoin over all the competitors
5. and the upstartness of altcoins etc etc
Everything points to me a violent upmove once the profit-taking consolidation ends.
209.
Post 2441970 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Welcome back Rpietila!
Thank you, you actually moved my heart. The total communications ban (although I see it was necessary considering my health) was very difficult to take mentally and I picked up a habit of chain-smoking cigars (almost the only thing allowed for me to do during the reset my mind). I will hopefully not write too much or too weird things since this board is followed by my medical staff. Also please do not
you call me King of Europe or anything.
I have some notes, which I will be released in due time. Now just consider that
I am still inside the ward, just first day trying to use computer.
210.
Post 2448988 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
My advice for everybody but the most astute daytraders now:
Buy as many bitcoins as you can, regardless of the price or timing. The price and timing will be secondary as the next upleg commences, and commences it will, once there is anything that you can do with bitcoins.
I bought 2,000,000mBTC in September-October 2012. At times I was down 15%. Do you think that now I would give a thought about the exact price or timing? I would, had I not bought the coins.
Everyone who holds anything else as investment except bitcoins has diversified to the detriment of their financial interest.
211.
Post 2449294 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Everyone who holds anything else as investment except bitcoins has diversified to the detriment of their financial interest.
well done. Hope you have managed to keep hold of most of them.
Yes, I haven given away about 2,000,000 and 1,000,000 has been stolen but I still have some.
Sorry for usage of millibitcoin
212.
Post 2449433 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
I told, I have three things I need to do in bitcoinworld to make it $300/m
BTC this year.
Then they took me to a mental institution, and what I wrote, could not be established without me. Even now, it is unlikely that I will be the sole contributor. But please take a look about
one of the three pillars. When something is not good, comment to add. It is not ready, and I am under medication, for which reason I also cannot talk as sharply as I could normally.
213.
Post 2450067 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
BTC = Black Swan. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: 1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology 2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) 3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.
Is this the same as "six-sigma" (meaning extremely improbable event that has great impact because its extreme improbability)?
They use "six sigma" also in manufacturing as error level. If a probability of every erroneous task is 6-sigma, the final product is quite unlikely to be defective no matter how complex it is (automobile, etc.)
My IQ is 2.9-sigma, so it is very high (Mensa level is 2.0), but in itself it is meaningless because there are 100-thousands of as intelligent people around.
214.
Post 2450140 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Buy as many bitcoins as you can, until once there is anything that you can do with bitcoins (and the price has risen dramatically as the impact)
Which could be never and that's looking more likely as more businesses snub Bitcoin for other options or even their own options.
I think similar things were said in the early days of the internet. We are 4 years into the worlds largest social experiment and you know the answer?
Businesses want to make money. You said you are a capitalist, right. Well, if you could drop visa, mastercard, etc. and increase some of your sales profits by 2%-4%, why would you "snub" that?
From a purely economical point of view (no worries about government intervention), Bitcoin is GREAT for business. Adoption is another matter...
Coinseeker is right. There is a probability that:
- crypto will lose the battle to fiat
- BTC will lose in the battle between cryptos.
There is some small ideas and big ideas to enforce BTC, though. We already gave Bitcointip in Haikko, and I am likely extending it to Punavuori (an area in the center part of Helsinki where about 5000-10000 people live). We will dole out free millibitcoins as bills, and inform all the restaurants there that if they serve their clients well, they will receive tips (because tips are already there in the hands of their clientele - we have give them out for free to all the inhabitants
)
Then the restaurants can cash them in for euros, or redeem them for actual bitcoins. Or keep them in circulation as bitcoin-denominated change.
My idea is to start with 5, 10, 20 so very small notes that we give out for free and prepare that many do not care. But some will, and that's going to be fun
215.
Post 2450170 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
My IQ is 2.9-sigma, so it is very high (Mensa level is 2.0), but in itself it is meaningless because there are 100-thousands of as intelligent people around.
IQ is a hot potato so let's say my shoe size is -1.6 sigma (so small that it's hard to find) and my length is -1.0 sigma (quite short).
OK, all?
216.
Post 2451780 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Businesses want to make money. You said you are a capitalist, right. Well, if you could drop visa, mastercard, etc. and increase some of your sales profits by 2%-4%, why would you "snub" that?
There is some small ideas and big ideas to enforce BTC, though. We already gave Bitcointip in Haikko, and I am likely extending it to Punavuori (an area in the center part of Helsinki where about 5000-10000 people live). We will dole out free millibitcoins as bills, and inform all the restaurants there that if they serve their clients well, they will receive tips (because tips are already there in the hands of their clientele - we have give them out for free to all the inhabitants
Then the restaurants can cash them in for euros, or redeem them for actual bitcoins. Or keep them in circulation as bitcoin-denominated change.
July 7th, the restaurants in central-southern Helsinki area would all be delivered a bulletin, concerning
What is Bitcointip. They are small bills that soon will come to circulation and can at any time be exhanged for euros, or redeemed as physical bitcoins by bringing them to an exchange point (the area where this experiment is conducted is only about 100 acres (40 ha) and walkable. After a restaurateur sign, the tip is redeemable.
There are only about 5600 apartments below a certain line that classifies the area as South-Helsinki. These all can be delivered by mass mailing. Actually we believe that most of the salvos empty themselves in the trashcan, so the payload would be about 800 bitcoin-sheets which is 3,200 bitcointip notes. Free money can also be given on the streets to the ones who know. We need several Bitcoin-T-shirts for that
(remember my earlier idea if the summit were oversold...)There are about 300 restaurants in the area, I believe we have quite good ratios, if the number of actually usable tipnotes exceeds the restaurants by a factor of 10.
217.
Post 2451845 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Up, Up, Up ?
Based on this, I would say consolidation. We bulls need to be able to buy very many coins from the ones who think $.1 is the new $.005.
When bull market starts, it does so in a stealth way, so that everybody is bearish. I would say the sentiment has been brewing for some time already, but the real bull market starts when I go bearish (uuupps I just did, postponing the $300 to next year..
)
Read February and how quite_manybody was finally able to realize a profit of $.022 or $0.25 and all-time high seemed to be as far history as it was to the future. That is the stealth bull market.
218.
Post 2452428 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
We don'T know if forces want it going up, down, or sideways. This is a small market, easily manipulated and when you think it is involved, or is, monetary reform... oh boy...
It is possible to manipulate the market down 20% by showing only 6,000,000m
BTC. Done that.
219.
Post 2471599 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
From the way this keeps happening I can't help wondering if it's a deliberate attempt to damage confidence in BTC rather than a way to make money or simple incompetence. Now, who would both be able to afford to do this and benefit from it? Maybe I'm just being paranoid but I can't help suspecting the US government or their banks - neither of whom are famous for playing fair or even obeying the law. They could cause trouble like this with their spare change.
I don't think a tin foil hat is necessary to consider them capable of malicious behaviour, they have a long history of it.
or it's a way to soften up the meat before you *really* bite into it...
I don't think anyone is going to take a big bite until MtGox no longer determines the price of the Bitcoin market. It really is laughable when you think about it. I think everyone is really just waiting for the next gen exchanges.
Nothing of the same generation can surpass Mt.Gox. We need the Dealer Network, developed
here.
I think it takes about 3 weeks from this day to the inauguration of the daily fixing. I mean that you can skip gox from that day on doing OTC. 3 months for this to take out the volume from Gox also.
220.
Post 2481354 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Technically, we could as well:
- stay around $0.1 for any time up till months
- retest 0.078
- go to any lower number if a downtrend commences.
Fundamentally, going to "any lower number" is impossible (people use bitcoins, and usage is up, so price cannot go down for long).
In the links of my sig, I have developed 2 interesting concepts, feel free to look!
221.
Post 2483194 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
To me, it looks like it is going down now.. Many of the bulls think speculatively that by selling now, it is easy to buy back later. While this thinking is wishful (not all of them can buy the coins back - sub-100 or even at all(!!)), it is enough to take the price down in a long slide to around $50.
Only the growing usage will save bitcoin now. It may take months before it catches up. We are 2 months to the bear market now, I would not be surprised for 2 more months. 4 more would be a surprise.
Don't sell your coins. In 2011 only the ones lost who sold. I bought about BTC5000 then from somebody who could have held onto his treasure but chose to throw it away for a pittance. Read my threads (links in the sig). Don't sell.
222.
Post 2483606 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
To me, it looks like it is going down now.. Many of the bulls think speculatively that by selling now, it is easy to buy back later. While this thinking is wishful (not all of them can buy the coins back - sub-100 or even at all(!!)), it is enough to take the price down in a long slide to around $50.
Only the growing usage will save bitcoin now. It may take months before it catches up. We are 2 months to the bear market now, I would not be surprised for 2 more months. 4 more would be a surprise.
Don't sell your coins. In 2011 only the ones lost who sold. I bought about BTC5000 then from somebody who could have held onto his treasure but chose to throw it away for a pittance. Read my threads (links in the sig). Don't sell.
You can't be sure the guy who sold you 5000 Bitcoin didn't buy double that back at the bottom.
Maybe he did, but not in a lump sum so there isn't a rally? It makes sense for him to keep the downtrend going until he is almost out of fiat.
Yeah,
somebody did buy thousands of coins at the final capitulation.
If there is one in the coming weeks, be sure to have your $$ ready. You're given one chance (if any). Even though I feel bearish, I still know the only sure way to get fiat out Mt.Gox is to buy bitcoins with it. So all the money is still there, and (real) asks are disappearing.
My bearishness is also partly because of my living condition.
223.
Post 2489090 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
The flakishness of this thread is a long-term bullish sign. In the short term, except all reason to disappear from here, and then a stealth rise to commence.
Everybody will be in denial until we cross $0.500/mBTC. I think we may spend 1-2 more months in $0.1 and then the rise would last for about 2 months. In October we will hit $5 and Christmas we'll see maximum $50, but may as well consolidate in $2.
So no $300 before Christmas, folks. Sell all your bitcoins (to me)! 2013 will be remembered as a good year (we are already up +700% and the year is only half over) but not everything will happen this year, as I predicted previously.
The key is to increase the actual usage. It is currently increasing but not virally. The viral application will see very fast exchange rate growth also. Currently (as you can see) everybody in the thread has just gone to work, and that is more sensible to do now, compared to watching USDBTC.
224.
Post 2489925 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
All the same, there is some tone of desperation in this. Just how heavily invested are you??
I started selling my bitcoins today, so I likely confirm as a contrarian indicator and you should buy. I still have 97% of the amount left, but now also some dollarz that I can use for paying the bills.
225.
Post 2490986 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
I am real, though my life seems to be more interesting than an average one. Let's verify some of the things:
- I am located in a closed mental institution run by the City of Helsinki, with 1-2 weeks to get out hopefully. They took my communication things away for about 16 days when they found out that I was so public here. Now I am recovering and could take part in trolling if there was any price action.
- I have more than 2,400,000m
BTC, after selling some today because I feel medium-term (1-2 months) bearish
- I have a wife and a kid 11mo, they are soon coming to see me
- The picture is taken from our Silvervault teaser video, and the guy is me about 3 years ago
- I still own, manage or run about 4 companies that deal with gold, silver, bitcoins and currencies. They are incorporated in Finland and Estonia.
- The BDNA and Supernode links are to be taken seriously (although one of the is a Live-Action game).
- Soon I will expand Silvervault to fully accept incoming Bitcoin transfers, which would make bitcoin<->"physical investment silver"<->"physical gold" transactions easier than ever before.
- Now my wife is coming, ttyl!
226.
Post 2491047 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
ADD:
- The Haikko thing happened for real, also I sent Roni and Annina to the U.S. for the duration of the San José conference. They are still there though currently not paid by me. I spent in excess of € 20,000 for Haikko and San José participation even though I did not participate myself in San José.
- It is likely that no bitcoins were stolen from Haikko, only a personal item worth about 1,000mBTC.
227.
Post 2491555 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
- I have more than 2,400,000mBTC, after selling some today because I feel medium-term (1-2 months) bearish
Only 2.4 million mBTC? Oh boy, there I was thinking you were a high roller
Way to keep spirits high though man, try to ignore the gaslighting trolling.
Oh man, you are so young, all your forum time I have spent in this ward!
There is also an upper bound I have told, and it is 35 million m
BTC. I have said I have never since the beginning of 2012 had access to more than that or less than 2,4 million. So I am a Prince at least, perhaps a Duke but definitely not one of the highest echelon.
Please don't let me need to repeat that every day as I have needed to do recently.
228.
Post 2491616 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Oh man, you are so young, all your forum time I have spent in this ward!
There is also an upper bound I have told, and it is 35 million m
BTC. I have said I have never since the beginning of 2012 had access to more than that or less than 2,4 million. So I am a Prince at least, perhaps a Duke but definitely not one of the highest echelon.
Please don't let me need to repeat that every day as I have needed to do recently.
Have you taken your meds today?
Sir, I acknowledge that you are a moderator, and as such I kindly refrain from calling you a douchebag, instead just humbly post a proof of the 450 trades of mine that took the Bitcoin price down from $117 to $97.52 last month. If you do not want to accept this as truth, I question
your sanity.
To answer the question, this is a closed unit, so you either take the pills, or they make you take them. You can't speculatively (profitably) long bitcoins, you can only short. So it's probably some supernode trying their capabilities (American likely), but I will be impressed only after breaching $.11. If I can do $.119->$.09752 in 3 days, surely others can do even better!
Just check this shit. What I find amazing is that there is people that take this guy half seriously
Um, as for these 450 Mt.Gox trades for the total of 4,496,297m
BTC transferred, I even have the complete record, and willing to post it publicly if sb cares to analyze it..
EDIT: Here you are
Index Date Type Info USD BTC CUM_USD CUM_BTC TIME ELAPSED_H TIME/15MIN
0 5.5.2013 6:30 0 0
1 5.5.2013 6:32 out BTC -1 4,57073688 at 117,06 535,06 -4,57073688 535,06 -4,57073688 0:02:27 1
2 5.5.2013 6:32 out BTC -1 3,96603401 at 117,06 464,27 -3,96603401 999,33 -8,53677089 0:02:27 1
3 5.5.2013 6:33 out BTC -1 20,45271985 at 117,00 2 392,97 -20,45271985 3 392,30 -28,98949074 0:03:28 1
4 5.5.2013 6:34 out BTC -1 1,18386753 at 117,00 138,51 -1,18386753 3 530,81 -30,17335827 0:04:48 1
5 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 20,00000000 at 117,00 2 340,00 -20,00000000 5 870,81 -50,17335827 0:07:13 1
6 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 2,92523456 at 116,40 340,50 -2,92523456 6 211,31 -53,09859283 0:07:18 1
7 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 50,00000000 at 116,40 5 820,00 -50,00000000 12 031,31 -103,09859283 0:07:18 1
8 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 4,81568388 at 116,35 560,30 -4,81568388 12 591,62 -107,91427671 0:07:19 1
9 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,01470000 at 116,30 1,71 -0,01470000 12 593,32 -107,92897671 0:07:19 1
10 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,02438900 at 116,27 2,84 -0,02438900 12 596,16 -107,95336571 0:07:19 1
11 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,01000000 at 116,26 1,16 -0,01000000 12 597,32 -107,96336571 0:07:20 1
12 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,02314910 at 116,25 2,69 -0,02314910 12 600,01 -107,98651481 0:07:20 1
13 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,01424162 at 116,25 1,66 -0,01424162 12 601,67 -108,00075643 0:07:20 1
14 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 5,00000000 at 116,21 581,06 -5,00000000 13 182,72 -113,00075643 0:07:20 1
15 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,02000000 at 116,21 2,32 -0,02000000 13 185,05 -113,02075643 0:07:20 1
16 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 2,97410000 at 116,20 345,59 -2,97410000 13 530,64 -115,99485643 0:07:20 1
17 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,01600320 at 116,20 1,86 -0,01600320 13 532,50 -116,01085963 0:07:20 1
18 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,21760000 at 116,20 25,29 -0,21760000 13 557,78 -116,22845963 0:07:20 1
19 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,02523000 at 116,20 2,93 -0,02523000 13 560,72 -116,25368963 0:07:20 1
20 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,01430900 at 116,20 1,66 -0,01430900 13 562,38 -116,26799863 0:07:20 1
21 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 0,01000000 at 116,20 1,16 -0,01000000 13 563,54 -116,27799863 0:07:20 1
22 5.5.2013 6:37 out BTC -1 33,89535964 at 116,20 3 938,64 -33,89535964 17 502,18 -150,17335827 0:07:20 1
23 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 1,00000000 at 116,21 116,21 -1,00000000 17 618,39 -151,17335827 0:08:31 1
24 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 2,92820000 at 116,20 340,26 -2,92820000 17 958,65 -154,10155827 0:08:31 1
25 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 162,10964245 at 116,20 18 837,14 -162,10964245 36 795,79 -316,21120072 0:08:31 1
26 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 1,32572000 at 116,10 153,92 -1,32572000 36 949,71 -317,53692072 0:08:31 1
27 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 32,63643755 at 116,00 3 785,89 -32,63643755 40 735,60 -350,17335827 0:08:31 1
28 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 0,73729821 at 116,00 85,53 -0,73729821 40 821,13 -350,91065648 0:08:53 1
29 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 4,00000000 at 116,00 464,00 -4,00000000 41 285,13 -354,91065648 0:08:53 1
30 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 1,00000000 at 116,00 116,00 -1,00000000 41 401,13 -355,91065648 0:08:53 1
31 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 1,69384853 at 116,00 196,49 -1,69384853 41 597,62 -357,60450501 0:08:53 1
32 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 0,97650870 at 116,00 113,28 -0,97650870 41 710,89 -358,58101371 0:08:53 1
33 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 8,00000000 at 116,00 928,00 -8,00000000 42 638,89 -366,58101371 0:08:54 1
34 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 10,00000000 at 116,00 1 160,00 -10,00000000 43 798,89 -376,58101371 0:08:54 1
35 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 0,01720000 at 116,00 2,00 -0,01720000 43 800,89 -376,59821371 0:08:54 1
36 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 50,00000000 at 116,00 5 800,00 -50,00000000 49 600,89 -426,59821371 0:08:54 1
37 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 8,22410000 at 116,00 954,00 -8,22410000 50 554,88 -434,82231371 0:08:54 1
38 5.5.2013 6:38 out BTC -1 0,01395590 at 116,00 1,62 -0,01395590 50 556,50 -434,83626961 0:08:58 1
39 5.5.2013 6:39 out BTC -1 0,01309900 at 116,00 1,52 -0,01309900 50 558,02 -434,84936861 0:09:00 1
40 5.5.2013 6:39 out BTC -1 0,01307500 at 116,00 1,52 -0,01307500 50 559,54 -434,86244361 0:09:01 1
41 5.5.2013 6:39 out BTC -1 0,08542714 at 116,00 9,91 -0,08542714 50 569,45 -434,94787075 0:09:01 1
42 5.5.2013 6:39 out BTC -1 0,48321134 at 116,00 56,05 -0,48321134 50 625,50 -435,43108209 0:09:26 1
43 5.5.2013 6:39 out BTC -1 0,10160900 at 116,00 11,79 -0,10160900 50 637,29 -435,53269109 0:09:29 1
44 5.5.2013 6:39 out BTC -1 0,01712000 at 116,00 1,99 -0,01712000 50 639,27 -435,54981109 0:09:47 1
45 5.5.2013 6:39 out BTC -1 0,10160900 at 116,00 11,79 -0,10160900 50 651,06 -435,65142009 0:09:48 1
46 5.5.2013 6:39 out BTC -1 0,01791500 at 116,00 2,08 -0,01791500 50 653,14 -435,66933509 0:09:50 1
47 5.5.2013 6:39 out BTC -1 0,02000000 at 116,00 2,32 -0,02000000 50 655,46 -435,68933509 0:09:52 1
48 5.5.2013 6:39 out BTC -1 0,02000000 at 116,00 2,32 -0,02000000 50 657,78 -435,70933509 0:09:54 1
49 5.5.2013 6:39 out BTC -1 0,01840000 at 116,00 2,13 -0,01840000 50 659,91 -435,72773509 0:09:56 1
50 5.5.2013 6:40 out BTC -1 27,95584096 at 115,85 3 238,68 -27,95584096 53 898,60 -463,68357605 0:10:50 1
51 5.5.2013 6:40 out BTC -1 3,16900000 at 115,81 367,01 -3,16900000 54 265,60 -466,85257605 0:10:50 1
52 5.5.2013 6:40 out BTC -1 0,00002089 at 115,81 0,00 -0,00002089 54 265,60 -466,85259694 0:10:50 1
53 5.5.2013 6:40 out BTC -1 0,12357230 at 115,68 14,30 -0,12357230 54 279,90 -466,97616924 0:10:50 1
54 5.5.2013 6:40 out BTC -1 5,46816813 at 115,62 632,21 -5,46816813 54 912,11 -472,44433737 0:10:50 1
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215 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,25494000 at 109,28 27,86 -0,25494000 137 260,55 -1 203,61056824 1:02:19 5
216 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,01846845 at 109,28 2,02 -0,01846845 137 262,57 -1 203,62903669 1:02:19 5
217 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,01082765 at 109,27 1,18 -0,01082765 137 263,75 -1 203,63986434 1:02:19 5
218 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,15779156 at 109,27 17,24 -0,15779156 137 280,99 -1 203,79765590 1:02:19 5
219 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,18000000 at 109,24 19,66 -0,18000000 137 300,66 -1 203,97765590 1:02:20 5
220 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,01000000 at 109,24 1,09 -0,01000000 137 301,75 -1 203,98765590 1:02:20 5
221 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,01086675 at 109,03 1,18 -0,01086675 137 302,93 -1 203,99852265 1:02:20 5
222 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 0,74928605 at 109,00 81,67 -0,74928605 137 384,60 -1 204,74780870 1:02:20 5
223 5.5.2013 7:32 out BTC -1 4,56524253 at 109,00 497,61 -4,56524253 137 882,22 -1 209,31305123 1:02:28 5
224 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 50,00000000 at 109,00 5 450,00 -50,00000000 143 332,22 -1 259,31305123 1:04:38 5
225 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,01804098 at 108,71 1,96 -0,01804098 143 334,18 -1 259,33109221 1:04:38 5
226 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,15779156 at 108,67 17,15 -0,15779156 143 351,32 -1 259,48888377 1:04:38 5
227 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,18000000 at 108,61 19,55 -0,18000000 143 370,87 -1 259,66888377 1:04:38 5
228 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 1,01100001 at 108,61 109,80 -1,01100001 143 480,68 -1 260,67988378 1:04:38 5
229 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,01002561 at 108,57 1,09 -0,01002561 143 481,76 -1 260,68990939 1:04:39 5
230 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,00128773 at 108,52 0,14 -0,00128773 143 481,90 -1 260,69119712 1:04:39 5
231 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,02000000 at 108,50 2,17 -0,02000000 143 484,07 -1 260,71119712 1:04:39 5
232 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,01087987 at 108,38 1,18 -0,01087987 143 485,25 -1 260,72207699 1:04:39 5
233 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 0,15779156 at 108,37 17,10 -0,15779156 143 502,35 -1 260,87986855 1:04:39 5
234 5.5.2013 7:34 out BTC -1 28,43318268 at 108,34 3 080,49 -28,43318268 146 582,84 -1 289,31305123 1:04:39 5
235 5.5.2013 7:36 out BTC -1 2,78237513 at 109,60 304,95 -2,78237513 146 887,79 -1 292,09542636 1:06:27 5
236 5.5.2013 7:36 out BTC -1 81,27780000 at 109,59 8 907,23 -81,27780000 155 795,03 -1 373,37322636 1:06:27 5
237 5.5.2013 7:36 out BTC -1 0,28111433 at 109,50 30,78 -0,28111433 155 825,81 -1 373,65434069 1:06:34 5
238 5.5.2013 7:36 out BTC -1 15,65871054 at 109,50 1 714,63 -15,65871054 157 540,44 -1 389,31305123 1:06:39 5
239 5.5.2013 7:37 out BTC -1 50,00000000 at 109,50 5 475,00 -50,00000000 163 015,44 -1 439,31305123 1:07:08 5
240 5.5.2013 7:38 out BTC -1 42,65846414 at 110,00 4 692,43 -42,65846414 167 707,87 -1 481,97151537 1:08:07 5
241 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 13,89702178 at 108,11 1 502,41 -13,89702178 169 210,28 -1 495,86853715 1:09:17 5
242 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01000000 at 108,11 1,08 -0,01000000 169 211,36 -1 495,87853715 1:09:17 5
243 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,43560000 at 108,10 47,09 -0,43560000 169 258,45 -1 496,31413715 1:09:17 5
244 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 5,93187767 at 108,10 641,24 -5,93187767 169 899,68 -1 502,24601482 1:09:17 5
245 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 42,22996530 at 108,10 4 565,06 -42,22996530 174 464,74 -1 544,47598012 1:09:17 5
246 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01500000 at 108,10 1,62 -0,01500000 174 466,36 -1 544,49098012 1:09:18 5
247 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,15779156 at 108,07 17,05 -0,15779156 174 483,42 -1 544,64877168 1:09:18 5
248 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,18000000 at 108,07 19,45 -0,18000000 174 502,87 -1 544,82877168 1:09:18 5
249 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01088893 at 108,05 1,18 -0,01088893 174 504,04 -1 544,83966061 1:09:19 5
250 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 6,10710000 at 108,00 659,57 -6,10710000 175 163,61 -1 550,94676061 1:09:19 5
251 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 20,00000000 at 108,00 2 160,00 -20,00000000 177 323,61 -1 570,94676061 1:09:19 5
252 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 5,00000000 at 108,00 540,00 -5,00000000 177 863,61 -1 575,94676061 1:09:19 5
253 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,18000000 at 107,98 19,44 -0,18000000 177 883,05 -1 576,12676061 1:09:19 5
254 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 2,63238565 at 107,89 284,01 -2,63238565 178 167,06 -1 578,75914626 1:09:19 5
255 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,25663000 at 107,88 27,69 -0,25663000 178 194,74 -1 579,01577626 1:09:19 5
256 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 2,63249780 at 107,79 283,76 -2,63249780 178 478,51 -1 581,64827406 1:09:19 5
257 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 8,23979330 at 107,79 888,17 -8,23979330 179 366,67 -1 589,88806736 1:09:19 5
258 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,15779156 at 107,77 17,01 -0,15779156 179 383,68 -1 590,04585892 1:09:19 5
259 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 35,00000000 at 107,76 3 771,74 -35,00000000 183 155,42 -1 625,04585892 1:09:19 5
260 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,10110000 at 107,74 10,89 -0,10110000 183 166,31 -1 625,14695892 1:09:19 5
261 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01089963 at 107,73 1,17 -0,01089963 183 167,48 -1 625,15785855 1:09:19 5
262 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01500000 at 107,66 1,61 -0,01500000 183 169,10 -1 625,17285855 1:09:20 5
263 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,03141000 at 107,61 3,38 -0,03141000 183 172,48 -1 625,20426855 1:09:20 5
264 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 50,00000000 at 107,51 5 375,50 -50,00000000 188 547,98 -1 675,20426855 1:09:20 5
265 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 6,76724682 at 107,50 727,48 -6,76724682 189 275,46 -1 681,97151537 1:09:20 5
266 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,09155800 at 109,49 10,02 -0,09155800 189 285,48 -1 682,06307337 1:09:55 5
267 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01200000 at 108,65 1,30 -0,01200000 189 286,79 -1 682,07507337 1:09:55 5
268 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,02013288 at 108,62 2,19 -0,02013288 189 288,97 -1 682,09520625 1:09:55 5
269 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01173511 at 108,42 1,27 -0,01173511 189 290,25 -1 682,10694136 1:09:55 5
270 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,29026576 at 108,41 31,47 -0,29026576 189 321,71 -1 682,39720712 1:09:55 5
271 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,31696634 at 108,41 34,36 -0,31696634 189 356,07 -1 682,71417346 1:09:56 5
272 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 2,91359893 at 108,24 315,36 -2,91359893 189 671,44 -1 685,62777239 1:09:56 5
273 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,05000000 at 108,12 5,41 -0,05000000 189 676,84 -1 685,67777239 1:09:56 5
274 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 2,48513275 at 108,11 268,68 -2,48513275 189 945,52 -1 688,16290514 1:09:56 5
275 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01217520 at 108,10 1,32 -0,01217520 189 946,84 -1 688,17508034 1:09:56 5
276 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,17440000 at 107,80 18,80 -0,17440000 189 965,64 -1 688,34948034 1:09:56 5
277 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01000000 at 107,54 1,08 -0,01000000 189 966,71 -1 688,35948034 1:09:56 5
278 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 51,16545143 at 107,50 5 500,29 -51,16545143 195 467,00 -1 739,52493177 1:09:56 5
279 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 6,96564586 at 107,50 748,81 -6,96564586 196 215,81 -1 746,49057763 1:09:56 5
280 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,25052687 at 107,50 26,93 -0,25052687 196 242,74 -1 746,74110450 1:09:56 5
281 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,08338000 at 107,47 8,96 -0,08338000 196 251,70 -1 746,82448450 1:09:56 5
282 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,15779156 at 107,47 16,96 -0,15779156 196 268,66 -1 746,98227606 1:09:56 5
283 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 5,00000000 at 107,45 537,25 -5,00000000 196 805,91 -1 751,98227606 1:09:56 5
284 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,18000000 at 107,44 19,34 -0,18000000 196 825,24 -1 752,16227606 1:09:57 5
285 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,20000000 at 107,42 21,48 -0,20000000 196 846,73 -1 752,36227606 1:09:57 5
286 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01090972 at 107,41 1,17 -0,01090972 196 847,90 -1 752,37318578 1:09:57 5
287 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 3,00000000 at 107,40 322,20 -3,00000000 197 170,10 -1 755,37318578 1:09:57 5
288 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 30,00000000 at 107,40 3 222,00 -30,00000000 200 392,10 -1 785,37318578 1:09:57 5
289 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,13115520 at 107,38 14,08 -0,13115520 200 406,18 -1 785,50434098 1:09:57 5
290 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,02000000 at 107,37 2,15 -0,02000000 200 408,33 -1 785,52434098 1:09:57 5
291 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 42,00000000 at 107,32 4 507,61 -42,00000000 204 915,94 -1 827,52434098 1:09:57 5
292 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01874936 at 107,31 2,01 -0,01874936 204 917,95 -1 827,54309034 1:09:57 5
293 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 0,01073960 at 107,31 1,15 -0,01073960 204 919,10 -1 827,55382994 1:09:57 5
294 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 10,00000000 at 107,30 1 073,00 -10,00000000 205 992,10 -1 837,55382994 1:09:57 5
295 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 7,00000000 at 107,26 750,82 -7,00000000 206 742,92 -1 844,55382994 1:09:58 5
296 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 25,00000000 at 107,25 2 681,25 -25,00000000 209 424,17 -1 869,55382994 1:09:58 5
297 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 5,00000000 at 107,25 536,25 -5,00000000 209 960,42 -1 874,55382994 1:09:58 5
298 5.5.2013 7:39 out BTC -1 7,41768543 at 107,23 795,40 -7,41768543 210 755,82 -1 881,97151537 1:09:58 5
299 5.5.2013 7:51 out BTC -1 6,65673991 at 109,20 726,92 -6,65673991 211 482,74 -1 888,62825528 1:21:18 6
300 7.5.2013 11:36 out BTC -1 0,16997175 at 109,00 18,53 -0,16997175 211 501,26 -1 888,79822703 53:06:03 213
301 7.5.2013 11:39 out BTC -1 9,00000000 at 109,00 980,99 -9,00000000 212 482,26 -1 897,79822703 53:09:43 213
302 7.5.2013 11:39 out BTC -1 0,01009385 at 109,00 1,10 -0,01009385 212 483,36 -1 897,80832088 53:09:52 213
303 7.5.2013 11:40 out BTC -1 1,30960274 at 109,00 142,75 -1,30960274 212 626,10 -1 899,11792362 53:10:14 213
304 7.5.2013 11:40 out BTC -1 4,05010000 at 109,00 441,46 -4,05010000 213 067,56 -1 903,16802362 53:10:22 213
305 7.5.2013 11:46 out BTC -1 5,72352093 at 109,00 623,86 -5,72352093 213 691,42 -1 908,89154455 53:16:31 214
306 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 3,40850542 at 108,81 370,88 -3,40850542 214 062,30 -1 912,30004997 53:26:14 214
307 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 8,99000000 at 108,80 978,11 -8,99000000 215 040,41 -1 921,29004997 53:26:39 214
308 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 5,93080000 at 108,21 641,75 -5,93080000 215 682,15 -1 927,22084997 53:26:39 214
309 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 98,00000000 at 108,20 10 604,05 -98,00000000 226 286,20 -2 025,22084997 53:26:39 214
310 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01171830 at 108,20 1,27 -0,01171830 226 287,47 -2 025,23256827 53:26:39 214
311 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,05124207 at 108,16 5,54 -0,05124207 226 293,01 -2 025,28381034 53:26:39 214
312 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01277568 at 108,16 1,38 -0,01277568 226 294,39 -2 025,29658602 53:26:40 214
313 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01189902 at 108,16 1,29 -0,01189902 226 295,68 -2 025,30848504 53:26:40 214
314 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,05000000 at 108,16 5,41 -0,05000000 226 301,09 -2 025,35848504 53:26:40 214
315 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01229290 at 108,16 1,33 -0,01229290 226 302,42 -2 025,37077794 53:26:40 214
316 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01291526 at 108,16 1,40 -0,01291526 226 303,81 -2 025,38369320 53:26:40 214
317 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01000000 at 108,16 1,08 -0,01000000 226 304,90 -2 025,39369320 53:26:40 214
318 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01217000 at 108,16 1,32 -0,01217000 226 306,21 -2 025,40586320 53:26:40 214
319 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01640000 at 108,14 1,77 -0,01640000 226 307,99 -2 025,42226320 53:26:40 214
320 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,01600000 at 108,13 1,73 -0,01600000 226 309,72 -2 025,43826320 53:26:40 214
321 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 1,00000000 at 108,00 108,00 -1,00000000 226 417,72 -2 026,43826320 53:26:40 214
322 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 3,28375234 at 108,00 354,65 -3,28375234 226 772,36 -2 029,72201554 53:26:42 214
323 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 2,57803443 at 108,00 278,43 -2,57803443 227 050,79 -2 032,30004997 53:26:42 214
324 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 0,09149458 at 108,81 9,96 -0,09149458 227 060,74 -2 032,39154455 53:26:50 214
325 7.5.2013 11:56 out BTC -1 5,00000000 at 108,82 544,10 -5,00000000 227 604,84 -2 037,39154455 53:26:50 214
326 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 44,74878166 at 108,75 4 866,43 -44,74878166 232 471,27 -2 082,14032621 53:28:11 214
327 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,60125439 at 107,93 64,89 -0,60125439 232 536,17 -2 082,74158060 53:28:18 214
328 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,04080000 at 107,75 4,40 -0,04080000 232 540,56 -2 082,78238060 53:28:18 214
329 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,01716030 at 107,73 1,85 -0,01716030 232 542,41 -2 082,79954090 53:28:18 214
330 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,01100000 at 107,73 1,19 -0,01100000 232 543,60 -2 082,81054090 53:28:18 214
331 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,01151029 at 107,73 1,24 -0,01151029 232 544,84 -2 082,82205119 53:28:18 214
332 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,05000000 at 107,72 5,39 -0,05000000 232 550,22 -2 082,87205119 53:28:18 214
333 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,01700000 at 107,72 1,83 -0,01700000 232 552,05 -2 082,88905119 53:28:19 214
334 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,01116000 at 107,71 1,20 -0,01116000 232 553,25 -2 082,90021119 53:28:19 214
335 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,05060000 at 107,71 5,45 -0,05060000 232 558,70 -2 082,95081119 53:28:19 214
336 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,02000000 at 107,70 2,15 -0,02000000 232 560,86 -2 082,97081119 53:28:19 214
337 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 7,39500000 at 107,66 796,12 -7,39500000 233 356,98 -2 090,36581119 53:28:19 214
338 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 5,92010000 at 107,66 637,34 -5,92010000 233 994,32 -2 096,28591119 53:28:19 214
339 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,20000000 at 107,66 21,53 -0,20000000 234 015,86 -2 096,48591119 53:28:19 214
340 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,10860000 at 107,42 11,67 -0,10860000 234 027,52 -2 096,59451119 53:28:19 214
341 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 3,03367841 at 107,41 325,86 -3,03367841 234 353,38 -2 099,62818960 53:28:19 214
342 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 0,15916370 at 107,38 17,09 -0,15916370 234 370,47 -2 099,78735330 53:28:19 214
343 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 10,05300000 at 107,37 1 079,34 -10,05300000 235 449,82 -2 109,84035330 53:28:19 214
344 7.5.2013 11:58 out BTC -1 22,29997291 at 107,36 2 394,13 -22,29997291 237 843,94 -2 132,14032621 53:28:19 214
345 7.5.2013 12:26 in BTC 1 4,68858770 at 104,14 -488,27 4,68858770 237 355,67 -2 127,45173851 53:56:26 216
346 7.5.2013 12:27 in BTC 1 95,31141230 at 104,14 -9 925,73 95,31141230 227 429,94 -2 032,14032621 53:57:07 216
347 7.5.2013 12:53 in BTC 1 25,00000000 at 104,02 -2 600,50 25,00000000 224 829,44 -2 007,14032621 54:23:55 218
348 7.5.2013 12:54 in BTC 1 10,00000000 at 103,62 -1 036,22 10,00000000 223 793,22 -1 997,14032621 54:24:19 218
349 7.5.2013 12:54 in BTC 1 50,00000000 at 103,50 -5 175,00 50,00000000 218 618,22 -1 947,14032621 54:24:20 218
350 7.5.2013 12:55 in BTC 1 0,10000000 at 103,50 -10,35 0,10000000 218 607,87 -1 947,04032621 54:25:25 218
351 7.5.2013 12:55 in BTC 1 1,10000000 at 103,50 -113,85 1,10000000 218 494,02 -1 945,94032621 54:25:33 218
352 7.5.2013 12:55 in BTC 1 0,00064911 at 103,50 -0,07 0,00064911 218 493,95 -1 945,93967710 54:25:37 218
353 7.5.2013 12:55 in BTC 1 98,79935089 at 103,50 -10 225,73 98,79935089 208 268,22 -1 847,14032621 54:25:56 218
354 7.5.2013 12:55 in BTC 1 19,40000000 at 103,35 -2 004,99 19,40000000 206 263,23 -1 827,74032621 54:25:56 218
355 7.5.2013 12:55 in BTC 1 6,72779834 at 103,25 -694,62 6,72779834 205 568,61 -1 821,01252787 54:25:57 218
356 7.5.2013 12:56 in BTC 1 18,27220166 at 103,25 -1 886,53 18,27220166 203 682,09 -1 802,74032621 54:26:47 218
357 7.5.2013 12:56 in BTC 1 36,00000000 at 103,15 -3 713,40 36,00000000 199 968,69 -1 766,74032621 54:26:54 218
358 7.5.2013 12:59 in BTC 1 0,57868893 at 103,10 -59,66 0,57868893 199 909,03 -1 766,16163728 54:29:22 218
359 7.5.2013 12:59 in BTC 1 49,42131107 at 103,10 -5 095,34 49,42131107 194 813,69 -1 716,74032621 54:29:36 218
360 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 7,67300443 at 103,98 -797,84 7,67300443 194 015,85 -1 709,06732178 54:33:09 219
361 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 36,89455683 at 104,00 -3 837,00 36,89455683 190 178,85 -1 672,17276495 54:33:09 219
362 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 0,25922125 at 104,00 -26,96 0,25922125 190 151,89 -1 671,91354370 54:33:09 219
363 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 0,10000000 at 104,00 -10,40 0,10000000 190 141,49 -1 671,81354370 54:33:09 219
364 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 0,01000000 at 104,00 -1,04 0,01000000 190 140,45 -1 671,80354370 54:33:10 219
365 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 18,40000000 at 104,00 -1 913,60 18,40000000 188 226,85 -1 653,40354370 54:33:10 219
366 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 20,00000000 at 104,00 -2 080,00 20,00000000 186 146,85 -1 633,40354370 54:33:10 219
367 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 0,29335752 at 104,00 -30,51 0,29335752 186 116,35 -1 633,11018618 54:33:10 219
368 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 10,00000000 at 104,00 -1 040,00 10,00000000 185 076,35 -1 623,11018618 54:33:14 219
369 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 10,00000000 at 104,00 -1 040,00 10,00000000 184 036,35 -1 613,11018618 54:33:21 219
370 7.5.2013 13:03 in BTC 1 10,00000000 at 104,00 -1 040,00 10,00000000 182 996,35 -1 603,11018618 54:33:23 219
371 7.5.2013 13:22 in BTC 1 21,42060818 at 102,78 -2 201,61 21,42060818 180 794,73 -1 581,68957800 54:52:06 220
372 7.5.2013 13:22 in BTC 1 18,41000000 at 102,78 -1 892,18 18,41000000 178 902,56 -1 563,27957800 54:52:13 220
373 7.5.2013 13:22 in BTC 1 0,03404736 at 102,78 -3,50 0,03404736 178 899,06 -1 563,24553064 54:52:16 220
374 7.5.2013 13:22 in BTC 1 10,13534446 at 102,78 -1 041,71 10,13534446 177 857,35 -1 553,11018618 54:52:31 220
375 7.5.2013 13:22 in BTC 1 6,21495031 at 102,60 -637,65 6,21495031 177 219,69 -1 546,89523587 54:52:33 220
376 7.5.2013 13:22 in BTC 1 0,03633451 at 102,60 -3,73 0,03633451 177 215,96 -1 546,85890136 54:52:46 220
377 7.5.2013 13:23 in BTC 1 0,00285158 at 102,60 -0,29 0,00285158 177 215,67 -1 546,85604978 54:53:05 220
378 7.5.2013 13:23 in BTC 1 6,80980864 at 102,60 -698,69 6,80980864 176 516,98 -1 540,04624114 54:53:13 220
379 7.5.2013 13:23 in BTC 1 5,00000000 at 102,60 -513,00 5,00000000 176 003,98 -1 535,04624114 54:53:21 220
380 7.5.2013 13:23 in BTC 1 5,00000000 at 102,60 -513,00 5,00000000 175 490,98 -1 530,04624114 54:53:22 220
381 7.5.2013 13:23 in BTC 1 35,49420726 at 102,60 -3 641,71 35,49420726 171 849,28 -1 494,55203388 54:53:29 220
382 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 4,99847571 at 104,51 522,40 -4,99847571 172 371,67 -1 499,55050959 55:18:06 222
383 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 1,00000000 at 104,51 104,51 -1,00000000 172 476,18 -1 500,55050959 55:18:07 222
384 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01917000 at 104,31 2,00 -0,01917000 172 478,18 -1 500,56967959 55:18:07 222
385 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01200000 at 104,30 1,25 -0,01200000 172 479,44 -1 500,58167959 55:18:07 222
386 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01300000 at 104,30 1,36 -0,01300000 172 480,79 -1 500,59467959 55:18:07 222
387 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,67000000 at 104,30 69,88 -0,67000000 172 550,67 -1 501,26467959 55:18:07 222
388 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 4,00000000 at 104,30 417,20 -4,00000000 172 967,87 -1 505,26467959 55:18:07 222
389 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01905000 at 104,30 1,99 -0,01905000 172 969,86 -1 505,28372959 55:18:07 222
390 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01850000 at 104,30 1,93 -0,01850000 172 971,79 -1 505,30222959 55:18:07 222
391 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01860000 at 104,30 1,94 -0,01860000 172 973,73 -1 505,32082959 55:18:07 222
392 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01356000 at 104,30 1,41 -0,01356000 172 975,15 -1 505,33438959 55:18:08 222
393 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01400000 at 104,30 1,46 -0,01400000 172 976,61 -1 505,34838959 55:18:08 222
394 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01400000 at 104,30 1,46 -0,01400000 172 978,07 -1 505,36238959 55:18:08 222
395 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01200000 at 104,30 1,25 -0,01200000 172 979,32 -1 505,37438959 55:18:08 222
396 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 0,01985594 at 104,30 2,07 -0,01985594 172 981,39 -1 505,39424553 55:18:08 222
397 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 5,95030000 at 104,30 620,62 -5,95030000 173 602,00 -1 511,34454553 55:18:12 222
398 7.5.2013 13:48 out BTC -1 3,20748835 at 104,30 334,54 -3,20748835 173 936,55 -1 514,55203388 55:18:19 222
399 7.5.2013 13:53 out BTC -1 2,76845508 at 104,40 289,03 -2,76845508 174 225,57 -1 517,32048896 55:23:14 222
400 7.5.2013 13:53 out BTC -1 0,51259146 at 104,30 53,46 -0,51259146 174 279,04 -1 517,83308042 55:23:14 222
401 7.5.2013 13:53 out BTC -1 4,71895346 at 104,30 492,19 -4,71895346 174 771,22 -1 522,55203388 55:23:14 222
402 7.5.2013 14:08 in BTC 1 3,97684770 at 102,60 -408,02 3,97684770 174 363,20 -1 518,57518618 55:38:34 223
403 7.5.2013 14:08 in BTC 1 25,00000000 at 102,57 -2 564,25 25,00000000 171 798,95 -1 493,57518618 55:38:34 223
404 7.5.2013 14:19 in BTC 1 50,00000000 at 102,12 -5 106,00 50,00000000 166 692,95 -1 443,57518618 55:49:55 224
405 7.5.2013 14:21 in BTC 1 50,00000000 at 101,61 -5 080,50 50,00000000 161 612,45 -1 393,57518618 55:51:25 224
406 7.5.2013 14:23 in BTC 1 50,00000000 at 101,21 -5 060,50 50,00000000 156 551,95 -1 343,57518618 55:53:02 224
407 7.5.2013 14:32 in BTC 1 100,00000000 at 100,01 -10 001,00 100,00000000 146 550,95 -1 243,57518618 56:02:40 225
408 7.5.2013 14:42 in BTC 1 389,00000000 at 98,50 -38 316,50 389,00000000 108 234,45 -854,57518618 56:12:34 225
409 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 9,19873475 at 102,00 -938,27 9,19873475 107 296,18 -845,37645143 56:31:01 227
410 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 0,22000000 at 102,00 -22,44 0,22000000 107 273,74 -845,15645143 56:31:02 227
411 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 0,01200000 at 102,00 -1,22 0,01200000 107 272,51 -845,14445143 56:31:02 227
412 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 26,43682160 at 102,00 -2 696,56 26,43682160 104 575,96 -818,70762983 56:31:02 227
413 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 1,67000000 at 102,00 -170,34 1,67000000 104 405,62 -817,03762983 56:31:02 227
414 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 6,00000000 at 102,00 -612,00 6,00000000 103 793,62 -811,03762983 56:31:02 227
415 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 5,00000000 at 102,00 -510,00 5,00000000 103 283,62 -806,03762983 56:31:02 227
416 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 5,49000000 at 102,10 -560,52 5,49000000 102 723,09 -800,54762983 56:31:02 227
417 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 4,95000000 at 102,10 -505,39 4,95000000 102 217,70 -795,59762983 56:31:02 227
418 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 2,94790000 at 102,20 -301,28 2,94790000 101 916,43 -792,64972983 56:31:08 227
419 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 0,10000000 at 102,20 -10,22 0,10000000 101 906,21 -792,54972983 56:31:21 227
420 7.5.2013 15:01 in BTC 1 19,35357691 at 102,20 -1 977,94 19,35357691 99 928,27 -773,19615292 56:31:32 227
421 7.5.2013 15:14 in BTC 1 12,72764294 at 100,10 -1 274,04 12,72764294 98 654,24 -760,46850998 56:44:12 227
422 7.5.2013 15:14 in BTC 1 0,02423760 at 100,50 -2,44 0,02423760 98 651,80 -760,44427238 56:44:21 227
423 7.5.2013 15:14 in BTC 1 20,82880635 at 100,50 -2 093,30 20,82880635 96 558,50 -739,61546603 56:44:37 227
424 7.5.2013 15:28 in BTC 1 0,53000000 at 102,30 -54,22 0,53000000 96 504,29 -739,08546603 56:58:53 228
425 7.5.2013 15:28 in BTC 1 0,26361906 at 102,30 -26,97 0,26361906 96 477,32 -738,82184697 56:58:56 228
426 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 0,88493679 at 102,30 -90,53 0,88493679 96 386,79 -737,93691018 56:59:00 228
427 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 7,26845564 at 102,30 -743,56 7,26845564 95 643,23 -730,66845454 56:59:01 228
428 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 0,04390000 at 102,30 -4,49 0,04390000 95 638,73 -730,62455454 56:59:02 228
429 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 0,01723873 at 102,30 -1,76 0,01723873 95 636,97 -730,60731581 56:59:08 228
430 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 0,01803154 at 102,30 -1,84 0,01803154 95 635,13 -730,58928427 56:59:37 228
431 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 0,01200000 at 102,30 -1,23 0,01200000 95 633,90 -730,57728427 56:59:44 228
432 7.5.2013 15:29 in BTC 1 13,00000000 at 102,30 -1 329,90 13,00000000 94 304,00 -717,57728427 56:59:54 228
433 7.5.2013 15:30 in BTC 1 9,96000000 at 102,30 -1 018,91 9,96000000 93 285,09 -707,61728427 57:00:17 229
434 7.5.2013 15:30 in BTC 1 0,01602143 at 102,30 -1,64 0,01602143 93 283,45 -707,60126284 57:00:17 229
435 7.5.2013 15:31 in BTC 1 0,01529068 at 102,30 -1,56 0,01529068 93 281,89 -707,58597216 57:01:08 229
436 7.5.2013 15:35 in BTC 1 517,86520581 at 102,00 -52 822,25 517,86520581 40 459,64 -189,72076635 57:05:09 229
437 7.5.2013 15:35 in BTC 1 0,01000000 at 102,00 -1,02 0,01000000 40 458,62 -189,71076635 57:05:10 229
438 7.5.2013 15:40 in BTC 1 124,32657218 at 102,30 -12 718,61 124,32657218 27 740,01 -65,38419417 57:10:52 229
439 7.5.2013 15:40 in BTC 1 35,67342782 at 102,30 -3 649,39 35,67342782 24 090,62 -29,71076635 57:10:54 229
440 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 65,38373398 at 102,73 -6 716,87 65,38373398 17 373,74 35,67296763 57:16:17 230
441 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 34,61626602 at 102,80 -3 558,55 34,61626602 13 815,19 70,28923365 57:16:17 230
442 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 25,22417518 at 102,93 -2 596,32 25,22417518 11 218,87 95,51340883 57:16:58 230
443 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 3,00000000 at 102,93 -308,80 3,00000000 10 910,06 98,51340883 57:16:58 230
444 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 0,03997272 at 102,94 -4,11 0,03997272 10 905,95 98,55338155 57:16:58 230
445 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 0,01181504 at 102,94 -1,22 0,01181504 10 904,73 98,56519659 57:16:58 230
446 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 0,02008152 at 102,94 -2,07 0,02008152 10 902,67 98,58527811 57:16:58 230
447 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 0,02158042 at 102,95 -2,22 0,02158042 10 900,44 98,60685853 57:16:58 230
448 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 2,00000000 at 102,96 -205,92 2,00000000 10 694,53 100,60685853 57:16:59 230
449 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 0,10000000 at 102,98 -10,30 0,10000000 10 684,23 100,70685853 57:16:59 230
450 7.5.2013 15:46 in BTC 1 75,30945612 at 103,00 -7 756,87 75,30945612 2 927,36 176,01631465 57:16:59 230
I think I have to coin a 1984ish word, "untrue", to be used every time somebody posts a claim, which is total bullshit, but luckily easily refutable by truth.
229.
Post 2491780 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Perhaps rpietila doesn't have a mental illness, but is master at real life trolling.
Rpietila has a mental illness, and is a master at real life trolling.
Better.
Thanks. Even if I rank only about 200 in the world's richest in bitcoins, you have to admire my taking the price down by that much, and making 20,000+ m
BTC in the process. Sad to have mental illness, but that enables un-realworldish powers that come at a cost. Even if I stop writing now, I will still have contributed more to Bitcoin than an average forum account. I find
the Duke thing fun, why are so few with me..
230.
Post 2491850 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Rpietila, if you are real then you are obviously very mentally ill (not attacking you here, just interested).
I have friends in medicine concerned with brain, mostly neuroscientists and neurologists. Would you be surprised to learn that it is becoming more and more acknowledged among academia that psychiatry is a pseudoscience and metal illnesses as defined and diagnosed by psychiatrists are false concepts?
Well, to think that way, you join all the medicines developed in all civilizations in all times, except the white man's in 1970-...
But I am not allowed to entertain my mind with any concept of a pseudoscience. The authority has put me here, and I submit to it.
231.
Post 2491990 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
The authority has put me here, and I submit to it.
I am sorry to hear that there were people who initiated violence against you and caged you against your will in a place where you do not like to be.
He hold a Bitcoin summit in Finland about a month ago and the hotel crew screwed up in many ways, a theft stole a notebook with a significant amount of unsecured coins, which, as far as I know, weren't stolen in the end, but the following hours and days after that event were quite stressful and he got in an arguement with the hotel staff. After that, he was gone for some days.
Thanks dexX7
For those who are interested in ''mental health'' basics, please watch this series
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOScYBwMyAA&list=SP55C5865F32A1749Aand watch this ''Psychiatry: and industry of death''
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvdBSSUviysEven a hair does not fall from my head without the Father knowing, so I am here in good care against my will in the ward of the industry of death.
I think many of you should actually take some changes in your lives, as free people you can do what I cannot.
232.
Post 2493351 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
most people thought I was insane when I went all in on BTC at $3 and quit my job and mined with 50 computers, slept 2 hours a night and trolled this forum 20 hours a day.
Muahahhaah I showed them who is crazy! muahhahahaha~
You remember, not a week before my current developments, I asked an asylum from you. I saw it coming.
Well, I am sure everything is in the hand of God. My entry point was also $3, before the drop to $2.
233.
Post 2497544 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
The dollar is too volatile to be useful for comparing BTC:s value, this chart says it all:
Nice chart. Bear in mind that the price is in the same ballpark as the actual bitcoin usage. It would be powerful to see this chart divided by the "# of users" or some other usage metric. If the marketcap is $50k per user, it is much less interesting to invest than if market cap is $500 per user.
In the Nasdaq bubble, mobile operators saw bubble valuations of $20k per user, which of course could not hold.
Dollar now has $2000 per person in the world valuation, bubble or not.
234.
Post 2497847 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
nice pic....
Nice chart. Bear in mind that the price is in the same ballpark as the actual bitcoin usage. It would be powerful to see this chart divided by the "# of users" or some other usage metric. If the marketcap is $50k per user, it is much less interesting to invest than if market cap is $500 per user.
In the Nasdaq bubble, mobile operators saw bubble valuations of $20k per user, which of course could not hold.
Dollar now has $2000 per person in the world valuation, bubble or not.
And these are exactly the numbers we don't have and do need to conclude if a 100 dollar coin is cheap or expensive
If all the world uses bitcoin exactly as much as they use gold now, 1 bitcoin will be valued at $300,000.
235.
Post 2507610 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
I actually sold some BTC during the last 3 days. We have a giant wedge, which well may break to the upside, but as well it can break to the downside, which means we will viciously crash to $50 in the final capitulation. It is easy to sell bitcoins, and there are no support levels after 88 and 79. Many latecomers are still sitting on gains. Even all of my net purchases ever are green (I never net purchased above $100 after all) and my finger is becoming itchy. I always tend to think that I represent a group of people, and that group is now on the sell side, no chance to buy as we are already all-in.
If we break to the upside, I will buy in at a loss with a predetermined schedule. I am not nearly as sure
of the probability and timescale of my $300k prediction as before. However, IF crypto takes over fiat, there is still no realistic way to do it without Bitcoin reaching $300k. (Or I would still like to hear the reasoning
)
236.
Post 2509236 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Rpitiela Rpitiela Rpitiela! I summon you! Your breakout is here, now is the time to buy!
Try to spell my name correctly, then
Yes it appears I sold like a sucker. Just at the wrong time. I have also bought
always the wrong time (even my initial buy was a week before a 33% drop in 2011). Now I sitting on about $70k in Mt.Gox. Good that I only sold a portion, and not even a large one. Never sell out.
I don't think we see $100 ever again.
237.
Post 2509442 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
I laugh at all the sheep who are actually basing their decisions on a Bitcoin 2011 price history comparison. I hope each and every one of them lose badly.
I sheeped just yesterday and am now short
BTC638,
. Any chance you would accept bitcoins as payment for the debt you've vainly tried to make me pay.
238.
Post 2510807 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
We are resting now at the 1st fibonacci level of the move of 102->113.3. In principle, I would like to see the 2nd level before I buy in in a serious quantity. I corrected 20% of my error by purchasing the bitcoins I had sold at EUR 76, for EUR 80. So I am eating a 5% dumb panicker fee.
239.
Post 2511016 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
We are resting now at the 1st fibonacci level of the move of 102->113.3. In principle, I would like to see the 2nd level before I buy in in a serious quantity. I corrected 20% of my error by purchasing the bitcoins I had sold at EUR 76, for EUR 80. So I am eating a 5% dumb panicker fee.
Don't get left behind again!
P.s. that wall used to be 6500 BTC and I've been carefully watching it get chewed down.
No problem, I will not let my position go before
BTC2,400, that stupid I am not (everything goes wrong incl. mental ward but at least I still have some bitcoins).
240.
Post 2512144 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Jaroslaw has no bitcoins, or 0.1 at most maybe. He's just an immature kid trying to act like a memorable troll but failing miserably. The best troll on these boards is Rpietila by far, nobody comes even close.
I think the rally + the wall buy is legit. There was a wedge, and we broke upwards. I bought 2/3 in, at a loss.
We will now form a handle to the cup tomorrow in 106ish, and then continue up.
Why am I the best troll, even now under medication??
Proudhon has disappeared, and most the cadre has changed.
241.
Post 2583883 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Is there any news from the regulation sector? (Or anywhere?)
242.
Post 2775301 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
if this thing doesn't move soon I'm going to have to stop looking.
Barring some major event, it's going to be a slow, and painful for some, slide into the 50's over the next few weeks.
What exactly would cause this, as about 5 million people are very interested about bitcoins and seek an entry point, whereas current holders have pretty much emptied what they want?
I entered into bitcoin at exactly this point in late 2011 and have not regretted.
One billion dollar market cap is nothing.
243.
Post 2775534 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
if this thing doesn't move soon I'm going to have to stop looking.
Barring some major event, it's going to be a slow, and painful for some, slide into the 50's over the next few weeks.
What exactly would cause this, as about 5 million people are very interested about bitcoins and seek an entry point, whereas current holders have pretty much emptied what they want?
I entered into bitcoin at exactly this point in late 2011 and have not regretted.
One billion dollar market cap is nothing.
Who said anything about "regret"? All your other points are moot seeing as BTC is currently falling and finding a nice home in the 80's. So, maybe you could go convince those "5 million" people (where ever you got that number from) to actually purchase BTC. Otherwise, sit back and enjoy the decline.
I did pick my words: "What would
cause this?" Sellers must outnumber buyers, which can happen temporarily, and BTC may find its home in the 80s for some time, but I don't see any more "long and painful slide", because the new entrants are just so much more numerous as the current holders. Just as in late 2011. It took about a year for me from hear to buy. So is it with the 5 million new ones.
The only reason to sell now is capitulation. If you plan to buy back cheaper, good luck - panic hold is just better strategy
244.
Post 2778961 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Personally, what I find pathetic and ridiculous is not being able to acknowledge the realities of bursting and deflating bubbles and ignoring the evidence staring at your face. Suit yourself.
There are no bulls around in this forum. So who can sell any more? This day-and-night bear parade that we are witnessing can only point to
rising prices (don't expect anything too soon however). It is as clear as the bull parade a few months ago, which was pointing downwards.
245.
Post 2779301 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Personally, what I find pathetic and ridiculous is not being able to acknowledge the realities of bursting and deflating bubbles and ignoring the evidence staring at your face. Suit yourself.
There are no bulls around in this forum. So who can sell any more? This day-and-night bear parade that we are witnessing can only point to
rising prices (don't expect anything too soon however). It is as clear as the bull parade a few months ago, which was pointing downwards.
I am bullish about BTC in the long run but I'm also flat broke.
If the bears are going to hold the price down for long enough for me to scrape enough cash together to catch the train too then that's fine by me. 'Due to unforeseen circumstances the 12:41 train to the moon will be delayed' - just like my order from BFL of course
In the meantime I'll just keep turning over the small amount of BTC that I already have because this market uncertainty does present a good trading opportunity
Bears don't have anything to sell, so they cannot keep the price down. Only the bulls can take it down by selling. But there are no bulls! So it does not look like the price would go down for any longer period of time. Unless Bitcoin dies, of course, which we know is not happening. In 2011 it took some balls to invest and we were handsomely rewarded. Now it is quite obvious that bitcoin will be worth much more and only thing we are debating is whether an odd week will close $50 or $70 in the meantime. If you know daytrading, this is a good opportunity. Long term just buy and forget.
246.
Post 2779598 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Rpietila - I've wondered about what you just brought up. I guess there are still quite a few people that want to unload, even though they are bulls, they take the occasional profits and if you have 10's of thousands of BTC, unloading some on a down move (to buy back later) might not be bad. But what a bounce that will be...
I think Bitcoin is expanding in waves, each one is an order of magnitude bigger. In the end there may be the final forward escape, the singularity event, if everyone decides to leave fiat currency in one supermove consummating in 6-9 months. Until that happens, it just takes 12-24 months to reach a new wave ("bubble") high, driven by the investors that heard about Bitcoin during the previous top.
Now we are waiting for millions of people who heard this year, to summon their money to buy. On the other side, there is almost no one who still has coins to sell. The upmove 2 weeks ago showed that price can go up 50% with almost no buying pressure. There are so little bitcoins available that there will be an immediate squeeze as soon as the current bears decide to buy back. I bet almost nobody did 2 weeks ago. With all likelihood, most of them will never recoup their coins. This, naturally, has to be so - otherwise "there would not be enough coins for all", and price would rise even more. In the end, nobody will sell bitcoin for fiat, but it seems we are not there yet. (And may not be, if things change: I have been waiting since 2006 that nobody would sell gold and silver for fiat, still they are obtainable although silver is tricky).
247.
Post 2780677 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
The question is though - what has changed since January? Granted, exposure has certainly increased - does that mean BTC is worth 6 times more, 7 months later?
Bitcoin is a revolutionary technology that is either worth hundreds of $billions or not much. During whole of its history it has been worth "not much" and dissecting the current price movements that (literally) I can create at will, does not lead us anywhere. It is simply too small. 99.9% of money managers have not taken any position yet. It goes to much higher or zero, and it is difficult for it to go to zero, (as well as it is difficult to shut down the internet).
The recent runup in price was an event I did not see many predicting. If it now goes to zero due to (for example) a concerted crackdown on all the exchanges, it does not alter my perception of the long term value. Nobody is forced to sell at zero. I work in gold/silver, and the crash in prices this year has lead to people not selling their scrap silver any more. In 2008 silver was valued officially at $9 per oz, but in 2.5 years it went up to $50.
This is a percentage game. You got a certain percent of coins, good.
248.
Post 2780931 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
rpietila's online
BUY BUY BUY
It is almost as if we were friends...
249.
Post 2781835 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Altough I don't think countries going bankrupt automatically assume we see a rush to bitcoin I think you're mistaken in the size of the bitcoin market. The amount on the market is miniscule and many sellers have already blown their load.
+1.
By going up about 5%, Silver just increased its market cap 20 times more than the total of bitcoin's market cap. Silver is tiny, so bitcoin is minuscule.
250.
Post 2807271 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
We have the standoff between a buying whale and sellers that are willing to dump at 96-97,
I believe mostly people who missed the train on the 19th July (I didn't, sold at 99 the day before).
If the buying whale makes another move today, up to 98 I believe, we'll find out if the sellers
get exhausted or not. If they do, the way to 100 and beyond is open IMO.
Don't be too preoccupied with the idea that only one entity in the world is accumulating bitcoins now, whereas the sellers are many. This is the age when the pros make their moves, and they don't necessarily use the exchanges at all, except for the purpose of price suppression. Bitcoin is quickly redeeming its place among gold and silver.
251.
Post 2807746 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
We have the standoff between a buying whale and sellers that are willing to dump at 96-97,
I believe mostly people who missed the train on the 19th July (I didn't, sold at 99 the day before).
If the buying whale makes another move today, up to 98 I believe, we'll find out if the sellers
get exhausted or not. If they do, the way to 100 and beyond is open IMO.
Don't be too preoccupied with the idea that only one entity in the world is accumulating bitcoins now, whereas the sellers are many. This is the age when the pros make their moves, and they don't necessarily use the exchanges at all, except for the purpose of price suppression. Bitcoin is quickly redeeming its place among gold and silver.
But there's so much resistance.. What makes you so bullish? Are you thinking we going over 100?
Volume is so small it does not matter much. The exchanges have their regulatory problems and worries, very few are willing to commit serious amounts of coin to Mt.Gox any more. This has changed over the last 3 months. I used to keep more than 2000 coins in Gox but do not do any more.
My bullishness is based on fundamentals. Bitcoin will be either destroyed, or become a dud, flourish, or conquer the world. The latter 3 scenarios all mean that price will increase compared to now. I have parked my bitcoins in deep storage - to be activated when the price hits $1400.
The risk is great but that can be mitigated by only investing what you can afford to lose. For many people that is quite much, actually
252.
Post 2807986 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
interesting part is that people who push now to sell bitcoins will want to buy back them later no matter what price will be because there is only so much of them in the world ... i'm not going to give mine any time soon.
No, the price is far too high for that
I sincerely believe that most holders of bitcoins have done exactly as I (among others) has advocated: only invest a modest sum, and fully prepared to ride it to the oblivion if need be. My own bitcoin holdings are already up more than 1000% and I am not selling until the proceeds will give a sizable boost to my economy. Most people are not inclined to sell at a loss, even to their own detriment. On the contrary, there is a weird willingness to wait for years until an investment breaks even in fiat terms and then sell, once it has finally started to perform.
253.
Post 2837237 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
It wouldn't surprise me if every single whale buy since $65 was by a different person. There are a lot of people very interested in this new phenomenon, and they each have their own circumstances, plan, entry point, tolerance for goxxing, and fear of missing the train.
+1 Yes, of course.
254.
Post 2848793 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Its got to, everything says overbought. IDK about below $100, there is a big wall forming.
$101 seemed like a safe bet but its all stalled at like $105-104.
I think not!
+1
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Post 2876195 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
It still feels slow...
One month, and only up +50%. It feels like February then...
256.
Post 2877003 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
It still feels slow...
One month, and only up +50%. It feels like February then...
300k USD per BTC by the end of the year, or are you in
denial of facts?
Indeed, could you hurry up with the 300k USD Bitcoin? Otherwise I'll have to seek employment by the end of the year
I think the "300k by the end of year" does not happen. It would have been nice but the facts point the other way now.
That we experienced a runup from (about) 10 to (about) 100 in the first months of this year is an amazing feat. Hopefully you all were invested at the time. The weekly and monthly charts speak for the resilience of bitcoin price. The overshoot 100->300 was for the lucky few who managed to cash out.
Long term, if bitcoin, or crypto in general, is to have any impact in society at large, it must be 100-1000 times bigger. Thus any prices we see in the remainder of this year, will be cheap.
257.
Post 2930609 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
what did I miss? is this a news based rise?
Are you new here? The only 'news' that causes price to rise is whale buys.
There is a significant lag from publicity to action.
Just think about yourselves - how many months it took from the first hearing about bitcoin to taking position? Mine was about 12 months of active following before I bought any bitcoins.
The great majority that heard in the great media bombardment
in this February-April (perhaps 100 times more people heard about bitcoin this year, compared to 2011),
has yet to purchase anything. We are currently in a stage where every single purchase by these people is viewed as something special. No, these are all early adapters from this "attention batch". The adoption curve will get steeper, and this will also increase the price.
I don't believe that the recent news are cause of much anything. Not many are following the bitcoin news now. It is the great masses that heard earlier this year, a certain percentage of them will invest a certain percentage of their portfolio, that will determine the bitcoin price in the months going forward.
258.
Post 2930615 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Bitstamp @100
259.
Post 2962314 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
a break of $115 (if sustained) is truly bullish (wether driven by gox crap situation or not doesn't matter)
If price rises in Gox, all or part of it can be attributed to Gox crap situation (and dismissed as evidence).
However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.
I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp.
260.
Post 2962429 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.
I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp.
Bitstamp has 5k less coins in their Ask compared to 1-2 weeks ago. Most likely, they have all been move to Gox to sell.
I believe the buying pressure in Bitstamp has just consumed the coins.
Gox situation is special. I don't believe that their bid side comes from true demand, because it is so much easier to use other exchanges for buying, and their price is also much lower. To me it seems that most of Gox bids are money trying to escape Gox in the form of bitcoins.
This money is orginally as Gox-USD, and most of the owners want it converted back to USD after escaping from Gox. It does not change the total bitcoin supply-demand, because it is both originally and eventually USD. Bitcoin is therefore used only as a value transmit mechanism for Gox-USD.
261.
Post 3044694 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
I'm not convinced that bubble money isn't just being redistributed right now. How much fresh money do we think is flowing into the exchanges?
I'd be curious to see an update from that guy who was charting forum activity over time.
It is't forum activity but the next best thing. Google trend seems to level out at about 15% of peak. Before it it was at 5%.
Bullish: price rises while google trends is low.
Why? If trend goes higher, it raises the price even more. Whereas if trend spikes, we are due for a reversal (as evidenced in Apr -13).
262.
Post 3048611 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
I think a lot of people realize that even with the insolvency/seizure risk (and low float rate) it might still better to hold six figures (or more) on an exchange rather than withdrawing and declaring taxes on it. This obviously depends on our cost/benefit analysis.
They can mitigate this risk by buying BTC when the exchange has a cash flow problem or is facing regulatory scrutiny.
One could analyze the cost/benefit ratio this way: One could determine the risk of holding X sum of money on a given exchange (or multiple exchanges) and subtract a conservative amount of risk for proper management (i.e. going all-in to BTC when the risk of seizure/insolvency increases). They could determine the tax liability as well, which is the risk of withdrawal. Compare these risks against each other and one can determine whether it is safer to keep USD on an exchange (with the caveat that it must be converted into BTC, exposing one to exchange rate risk, when the regulatory or cash flow issues present themselves) or to accept the tax liability.
Obviously we can argue all day and night over which strategy has more risk, since some of the risks aren't easily quantifiable. We don't really have the data to asses this (we'd need everything from WMA bitcoin exchange float rates to % recoverable funds to current "bitcoin VIX" or downside move stats tax liabilites in various jurisdictions) but I'm sure there are some people who are starting to realize they can use the exchanges as a 'non-anonymous yet no-tax-liability so long as I don't withdraw' offshore bank account to some degree, holding their fiat there forever and then purchasing, shuffling and anonymizing BTC for purchase OTC or to anonymously/pseudonymously purchase real goods and services without having to declare the income first. I'm not saying this is an invincible strategy, but the law enforcement burden would be enormous, and there are most likely rich folks out there doing exactly what I have described.
EDIT: In case the feds are reading, I don't have anywhere near enough money to even consider myself "a rich person trying to evade taxes on the internet," so please don't waste tax dollars investigating my broke a$$. I'm merely speculating on what these bastards are doing with the bitcoin price.
Good thinking. We the rich, prefer to invest cold-bloodedly, and assess the risks in percentages. In my case, for example, selling bitcoins from my long-term personal holding (which has never been dipped into), would result in 24% tax of the amount sold (since it is practically all profit, measured in fiat).
Even if there is 50% probability of Gox going belly up this year, and in 20% probability this will lead to the total loss of BTC holdings there, the estimated loss is only 10% (50%*20%). Much less than the loss to taxman by selling the coins.
Government has confiscated physical gold and silver from me, my companies and my customers in 2008. It is not that all the value confiscated will be indefinitely kept by the government, because it is illegal and unpractical for them to do so. The risk premium (discount applied when my customers bought silver in gov custody, to be delivered when it is returned to me) was 10% during the time. The metals were held for 7.5 months, returned in full after the investigation and no charges were filed.
The feds are threatening the bitcoin holders with unlawfully long process times. They don't have the authority to take and keep your bitcoins without due process, not any more from Mt.Gox than your personal holdings.
263.
Post 3049042 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
please explain how a BUY of bitcoins is "fiat leaving". If it's indeed capital flight from gox in the form of bitcoins, those have to be SOLD in order for fiat to leave the bitcoin system.
Yes, and even if this were the case, we are talking strictly that
fiat stays fiat (with no net effect to bitcoin demand).
1. If there was selling pressure of bitcoins, the price would be trending down.
2. What we are witnessing, is large-scale buying. There is not so much evidence from the trade records that this buying is offsetted by selling in other exchanges. So a large part of Gox is not capital flight (isn't it ironic that bitcoin is the best way to move
fiat capital around these days?), rather it is legitimate buying for investment.
(Of course buying and selling volume must every moment exactly equal. Therefore a price shooting up is labeled "increased buying" and conversely.)
Can ya'll stop quoting walsoraj?
+1.
264.
Post 3063813 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
Something i've been asking myself. Say you buy a house in only bitcoin without paying taxes on it, followed by a visit from the IRS. You say you bought the house in bitcoin, what can they do? Can they throw you in jail or fine you for that since you used an "erschatz" currency?
Here (Finland) they would require you to declare a bitcoin sale equivalent to the value of the house, and tax 24% of the gross amount. You cannot escape the capital gains tax.
265.
Post 3064427 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
Something i've been asking myself. Say you buy a house in only bitcoin without paying taxes on it, followed by a visit from the IRS. You say you bought the house in bitcoin, what can they do? Can they throw you in jail or fine you for that since you used an "erschatz" currency?
Here (Finland) they would require you to declare a bitcoin sale equivalent to the value of the house, and tax 24% of the gross amount. You cannot escape the capital gains tax.
You can in countries without capital gains taxes.
Without going into details, after being born into country with CGT, it is rather difficult to get totally free in a short period of time. Such countries claim the right to tax you for several years even after you have severed all reasonable ties to the original country ("your mother still lives there so we'll tax you...").
266.
Post 3122499 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):
when there's a bit too much bullish sentiment around.. i get this urge to start selling
If you make your decisions based on what a couple people post on one forum on the Internet then yes, please sell.
Having lived through the booms and busts since 2010, I would classify the present situation as "relief". This is still a negative sentiment. It takes several months and several doublings of price from the current levels to develop a mania.
267.
Post 3164556 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Seems to me like the amount of value being traded has, when you take into account prices, increased. I mean 50k coins at $10 each is less then 5k at $130.
Which is already reflected in the higher price. IMO BTC volume is the appropriate indicator.
Agreed. And we are preaching an all time low in terms of coin supply at Gox. It looks to me that there's very little new fiat going to Gox, and very little coins being offered.
I (for one) cannot currently justify using Gox for storing either fiat or BTC. I did store 1000+ BTC there for more than a year so apparently I trusted them more back then, (or BTC was cheaper..)
- No real reason to buy from there, as Bitstamp's liquidity is enough for me.
- Feels risky to sell there, since I am waiting for my first withdrawal.
Meanwhile:
- Localbitcoins has grown a lot and is already a major source of volume.
- Bittiraha.fi in Finland is doing more volume extraexchange.
- I am also back to work, doing OTC.
We are moving away from Gox-centric world. In my observance,
the total volume we have now, is actually brisk when taking into account the insecurity concerning Gox, the holiday season, and the aftermath of the minibubble in April:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl(It is increasingly more evident that there never was a bubble in 2013, not any more than the Pirate event in 2012. The only bubble Bitcoin has experienced so far was in June 2011, and that was a bear trap. Bulls made anything north of 300% in 2 years =) )
268.
Post 3164861 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
- I am also back to work, doing OTC.
So you recuperated completely?
I think after 6 more months I am back at "normal". It takes time.
269.
Post 3217138 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Not much going on in here so I might as well throw this question out:
If you want to buy for a large amount, say between $ 50k and $ 200k, what is usually the be way to buy them on the exchanges? I guess somekind of limit order would be preferable?
I have moderate experience in buying such quantity from an exchange. It is difficult to give good advice, because it depends a lot on the exchange, the general mood, and the players in the exchange. If there are big sellers watching, it may be good to set up a wall near the market, this will induce them to sell without slippage for both. This approach may, however, be detrimental in boom days, where a big bid wall just prompts other bidders higher.
If you dare to bring scarecoins to the particular exchange, it is possible to pretend to be on the sell side with big walls, while actually purchasing nimbly. Even more aggressive tactic is to batter the price down with a supposed flood of coins (very few of which are actually for sale though) and purchase 5-10% cheaper.
Before doing anything creative it is important to familiarize yourself with the exchange in question, plus the market situation.
Sirius Money looks good. +1
270.
Post 3252995 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
your 12 coins will not have much of an effect on the market at large.
I dont care for "the market at large" nor effects. I will just dump.
It is exactly these evil manipulators who just dump regardless of the market at large and the effects who keep us from realizing the true value of Bitcoin
Disclosure: I adjusted a little bit down this week. Wanted one of my companies to buy more silver. If anyone is seeking to buy about 500 BTC for a price higher than in Bitstamp, drop me a line. Otherwise I will just dump them.
271.
Post 3253903 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Disclosure: I adjusted a little bit down this week. Wanted one of my companies to buy more silver. If anyone is seeking to buy about 500 BTC for a price higher than in Bitstamp, drop me a line. Otherwise I will just dump them.
This is the first serious throw-in-the-towel sentiment from you. Silver might tick up $10 over the next year while BTC could be anywhere up to 4 digits. Puzzling.
I sincerely believe that most holders of bitcoins have done exactly as I (among others) has advocated: only invest a modest sum, and fully prepared to ride it to the oblivion if need be. My own bitcoin holdings are already up more than 1000% and I am not selling until the proceeds will give a sizable boost to my economy. Most people are not inclined to sell at a loss, even to their own detriment. On the contrary, there is a weird willingness to wait for years until an investment breaks even in fiat terms and then sell, once it has finally started to perform.
Hah, perhaps the selling of 500 BTC will now give a sizable boost to my economy, then
These profits will not actually go to personal consumption, rather I will stock up on silver that is now really cheap. Late March I sold a lot of silver and bought BTC at 70-80. Now not only is BTC up +50%, also silver is down. Reversing this trade in its entirety (which I haven't yet done or even plan to do) would net me about 4000 ounces of silver, and still leave a good chunk of BTC. It is hard to conduct silver business without merchandise.
Buffett says that it is profitable to diversify, if you don't know what to do. Perhaps I don't...
272.
Post 3253944 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Yeah, his price today was $133, which satisfies me. How can I sell them to him?
This BIT will almost certainly utilize fractional reserve, as all the similar gold and silver entities have done, and act as an agent of price manipulation. (If not, the relevant authorities will shoot it down or make sure it won't even launch.)
273.
Post 3259565 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Aside from a few people (or one person) puting up ask walls, BitStamp is straight up dead.
We were sleeping, since it was night. Sunday night. What is wrong with you?
Just last week I was able to market sell
BTC500 there with about 0.7% slippage (I mean sell with one click). I think it was a fair deal, since the intention for me was not to make petty money but to realign the portfolio for the purchasing of more silver. For a trade of this size, it worked very fine. The largest volume I have done there in one day was
BTC1,800.
274.
Post 3262623 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Aside from a few people (or one person) puting up ask walls, BitStamp is straight up dead.
We were sleeping, since it was night. Sunday night. What is wrong with you?
Just last week I was able to market sell
BTC500 there with about 0.7% slippage (I mean sell with one click). I think it was a fair deal, since the intention for me was not to make petty money but to realign the portfolio for the purchasing of more silver. For a trade of this size, it worked very fine. The largest volume I have done there in one day was
BTC1,800.
Keep some
BTC, man. You might feel sorry otherwise.
The biggest BTC bull ending up missing the train would be ironic.
He told bitcoin was going to be $100,000 by the end of the year, right?
So what are you doing selling bitcoins!?
Better yet, how are you going to buy silver with gox dollars? I haven't seen a PM dealer yet that takes those.
LOL, in April
I took goxusd as payment for silver and gold
You will find it in my public diary, those were the days when commissions abounded... The need to buy back silver now is a direct result of those actions in the spring. I took a long vacation in between...
(This time we are talking about selling in bitstamp, as evident from the quote)
After this reduction, bitcoins are still my largest holding by asset type. They are spread in multiple companies and jurisdictions, and - thank you for taking care about me - it is unlikely that I would be
able to sell them all in a panic. In April I had a scheme to sell
BTC2000, but managed to sell only about
BTC300 before the price crashed (the following day). Then I bought back 3 times the amount and then some. Next adjustment down will be about 20%, when the first of the following happens:
- Price rises to 1000-2000
- It generates a 2013-style bubble, even if price is less than 1000
- In March, 2015
- Need to purchase something and bitcoin is most (tax-)efficient to sell.
My prediction that Bitcoin would go to $300k by the end of the year did both good and harm. Financially it ended up doing good. I bought a lot of "unnecessary" bitcoins above the core position after the crash. Now I can sell them at wash (or better), and buy back the silver cheaper.
275.
Post 3262866 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
People should stop thinking that there are only 41k
BTC on Gox. Just 3 days ago there were 55k
BTC on the ask side and IMO the 'missing' 14k
BTC are still on Gox,
waiting to be dumped at the right price. You'll see them again, probably within a week (some of them sooner), together with their offspring.
Moving
BTC around has proven to be uncensorable (easy). To determine what happens at Gox, it is much more important to know how much fiat currency they have
276.
Post 3267598 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Right now - some action in Bitstamp..
277.
Post 3267903 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Last60minutes.com(TM):
1-2 sellers sold about 1kBTC in Bitstamp, crashing the price from 125.5 to 122.8. On the buying side I noticed one bot was purchasing in 5 and 10BTC chunks, at market price. After the selling ended, the price rebounded to about 125, leaving the orderbook very thin around the market price (about 4% spread between 500BTC bid/ask depth).
278.
Post 3335134 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
We are in the 6 month to 8 month rally cycle. Just at the base.
My call is we are at roughly late february of 2013 in terms of market sentiment. Look for a new spike in price.
All time high still in view before year's end. Hang on to your Bitcoins
+1. We are currently exerting effort to crush the ATH (which, at that time was at $32 and now @266). It will still take at least several weeks. After that, there will be another spike.
279.
Post 3336042 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
We are in the 6 month to 8 month rally cycle. Just at the base.
My call is we are at roughly late february of 2013 in terms of market sentiment. Look for a new spike in price.
All time high still in view before year's end. Hang on to your Bitcoins
+1. We are currently exerting effort to crush the ATH (which, at that time was at $32 and now @266). It will still take at least several weeks. After that, there will be another spike.
Still got some BTC?
Lack of BTC is currently none at all impediment to my progress
I could be healthier, though..
280.
Post 3342768 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
i'm buying feathercoins
!!!?
!!!!??!??!!!!??!?!??!!!!!
Having a small amount in a few alts is not that bad. I hold a bit of xpm just cuz cpu coin. Like ltc is my gpu coin.
No interest in feathercoin for me however.
Bitcoin represents like 97% of the market cap of all crypto. Therefore for most, you save time by approximating the others to be zero (and not buy them). It takes skill to effectively play the altcoins. Personally I don't want to invest my time for such a small payoff.
281.
Post 3343187 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
Bitcoin represents like 97% of the market cap of all crypto. Therefore for most, you save time by approximating the others to be zero (and not buy them). It takes skill to effectively play the altcoins. Personally I don't want to invest my time for such a small payoff.
I bought over 500,000 ltc at an average price close to 1 cent. You might think my gain was small but i dont.
There is some kind of skill involved, which I don't have.
Investing 3% of my cryptostash to alts, would in my case most probably lead to same returns but diminished control. Even if it goes up 10 times relative to btc, it will just increase my total wealth to 0.03*10+0.97 = 1.27 (+27%). This is almost insignificant. So in a sense, I think your gain was small
I prefer to keep things simple. That is why I bought bitcoins only after the 2011 bubble, giving it ample time to turn out being a hoax. Granted I paid 10x more than some, but also made the groundwork for successful long-term holding.
282.
Post 3343271 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
Bitcoin represents like 97% of the market cap of all crypto. Therefore for most, you save time by approximating the others to be zero (and not buy them). It takes skill to effectively play the altcoins. Personally I don't want to invest my time for such a small payoff.
I bought over 500,000 ltc at an average price close to 1 cent. You might think my gain was small but i dont.
There is some kind of skill involved, which I don't have.
Investing 3% of my cryptostash to alts, would in my case most probably lead to same returns but diminished control. Even if it goes up 10 times relative to btc, it will just increase my total wealth to 0.03*10+0.97 = 1.27 (+27%). This is almost insignificant. So in a sense, I think your gain was small
I prefer to keep things simple. That is why I bought bitcoins only after the 2011 bubble, giving it ample time to turn out being a hoax. Granted I paid 10x more than some, but also made the groundwork for successful long-term holding.
27% of your overall investment is not insignificant no matter which way you look at it, especially when you would be risking only 3%.
There is currently no good reason why an altcoin would perform so well. Keeping track of all of them is also too time-consuming.
283.
Post 3343370 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
Let us continue upwards.
Somebody still believes that we will revisit the $40-$70 area ever again?
284.
Post 3343550 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
Bitcoin represents like 97% of the market cap of all crypto. Therefore for most, you save time by approximating the others to be zero (and not buy them). It takes skill to effectively play the altcoins. Personally I don't want to invest my time for such a small payoff.
I bought over 500,000 ltc at an average price close to 1 cent. You might think my gain was small but i dont.
There is some kind of skill involved, which I don't have.
Investing 3% of my cryptostash to alts, would in my case most probably lead to same returns but diminished control. Even if it goes up 10 times relative to btc, it will just increase my total wealth to 0.03*10+0.97 = 1.27 (+27%). This is almost insignificant. So in a sense, I think your gain was small
I prefer to keep things simple. That is why I bought bitcoins only after the 2011 bubble, giving it ample time to turn out being a hoax. Granted I paid 10x more than some, but also made the groundwork for successful long-term holding.
27% of your overall investment is not insignificant no matter which way you look at it, especially when you would be risking only 3%.
There is currently no good reason why an altcoin would perform so well. Keeping track of all of them is also too time-consuming.
Ltc at 5 cents was a good buy. Btc can fork and kill it self. To use crypto ltc is the best option.
2 dollars id buy some but nothing crazy. But yeah. Too many alts. Im only xpm and massive ltc still.
But im still a huge btc bull. I just love all good crypto.
Even if you bought LTC at the absolute low of 0.0025, you have barely made 6x your investment, I checked it has been around 0.015. Considering that 90% of altcoins have reverted to zero, purchasing every one of them with equal amounts, would have yielded a loss of -40%. Not to mention the time it takes to play with them, and the illiquidity and some legal concerns.
Don't get me wrong, everybody is free to do what they want but most choose to spend their time on activities that do not maximize profit. (One thing that I completely don't understand is why any noob would go into mining now).
BTC is so big it won't die because of a fork. But you are right that LTC is the silver currency at present. Perhaps I should buy some. Do you have any idea when it reaches bottom?
285.
Post 3343557 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
We will have 5 of them in
Finland next month. The first will be in a premier location in the heart of the capital city.
286.
Post 3347419 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
my god! here we go again... way more quickly than I would've thought.
post-april-crash high is 166 on gox. While one might argue we should rather look at bitstamp for clearing this, it's still the case: next stop after 166 would be all-time-high.
This rally still has a lot of legs imo. Why? The DPR arrest was a massive media exposure for bitcoin. It takes 2-6 weeks for newbies to start buying. It's 2 weeks now, so we might start to see that effect added soon and a new irrationality-phase (i.e. bubble) build up.
On the other hand: the last big bubble was not long ago at all, so maybe enough deep pockets remember and generate some friction, which will dampen the crash.
Who knows... it's anybodys guess.
The post-crash high of 166 and old ATH of 266 did not see meaningful volume, so they might be cleared with surprisingly little effort. Two weeks of trying to assault 32 was imho "surprisingly little" but this may be even less. That said, I would be more confident if we retraced at least 10% from now, and also took several attempts to beat 266.
There is a high probability that we are in the early stages of a megamove taking us 10-100 times higher. It does not make too much sense to unload BTC to strength in this early phase of the move. I don't plan to sell until 4 digits and/or if it starts to look unsustainable and/or I have an insatiable need for purchasing something. Because of this general analysis, I will skip even daytrading. There is just too high risk (to miss a part of the move with part of the stash, holding fiat) compared to expected reward.
287.
Post 3349401 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
I had to sell my FTC
How much did you make?
288.
Post 3362499 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
10% of your net worth gone *poof* just like that. Wait until the wealthy get wind of this.
I think this is a reasonable tax. It hits the wealth, which is more concentrated than income. It is fairer than inflation, because the rich can avoid inflation by buying hard assets, whereas the poor cannot. The poor need not pay much at all, but would be notified of the destructive policy of gov debt.
289.
Post 3374995 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Thanks for sharing, i liked this part:
"By prohibiting Bitcoin use, the United States could put itself at an
international competitive disadvantage in the development and
use of what may be the next-generation payments system. "
Finland mentioned in a positive context.
290.
Post 3377730 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
If there's not enough depth in each direction then I'll just sit and wait. I'm no no rush whatsoever.
You have been invested quite long. Has this strategy paid off, compared to simple buy&hold?
291.
Post 3381462 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
It's funny seeing a lot of the uber bulls who more or less disappeared after the April crash coming back talking about 5-10x growth by next [day, week, etc]. I'm getting nervous reading this crap.
Touché. But it is equally true that the mighty host of bears that abounded after the crash, has all but disappeared by now also.
292.
Post 3381630 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
You are forgetting an important dynamic: Interest rates. When consumption falls, savings rise and there are thus more money to be lent out. That means that the supply of money for loans rises and the price for loans fall which is the same as the interest rate falling. That means that it becomes more attractive to invest with borrowed money and this increases efficiency (if the investment is sound) which then increases the purchasing power and thus increases consumption. Yes. Capitalism is cool!
Yah, but with bitcoin you might argue that it will increase in value constantly (not at the same pace as these days obviously, but due to increased productivity combined with a stable money supply), therefore just holding the coins without loaning them out is a viable option.
Any loan would have to have a positive rate that compensates for the risk of a bad loan. Even if these rates are low, due to BTC appreciation, only loans that are able to give a significant gain in productivity/reward will be viable, thus the overall amount of loans would go down.
Bitcoin is exactly what we need: as long as its value goes up and/or is unstable, it is impossible to have any loaning. Afterwards the option to withdraw your bitcoins from banks and put them in paper wallets, forces the interest rate up. The result is a low level of very healthy loaning.
293.
Post 3388759 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Some people like me, sold enough BTC to live on for the next 4 years right after and during the march to 266 in case we did not get back to the highs for a while. I sold at $130 then and I'm not selling at $200 now. $500 to $1000 range is when I will sell a few more. I think more than a few people are just like me in this. We have enough cash to wait this out.
Seconded.
294.
Post 3390297 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Extremely bullish! According to this metric, the public in the west has no part in this rally, and can therefore only become a part of it (fueling the rally) or skipping it (rally continues however China sees fit).
The public does not have bitcoins to sell, they are in
very tight hands already.
295.
Post 3400365 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
That's it folks. I sold all
Failure to overcome previous ATH creates a massive double top, it is hard to say where the price will go, but in 6 months my guess would be in the $13-$50 range. Thank you
296.
Post 3400529 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
That's it folks. I sold all
Failure to overcome previous ATH creates a massive double top, it is hard to say where the price will go, but in 6 months my guess would be in the $13-$50 range. Thank you
Yeah, I'm guessing somewhere between this and the $300,000 you predicted earlier should be correct.
I am just probing the sentiment. It seems that you have good memory, but the sense of humor is not any better than in last spring.
(I got frightened contact to my mobile, perhaps it is in order to cancel and nullify the previous post.)
No I did not sell anything. Yes, I believe $300k is a realistic long term scenario. Yes, I was wrong whether it would happen this year. No, I don't care as much as you think I should.
297.
Post 3400617 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Oh shut up and drive your pink RollRoyce off cliff already. It would be funny when i meet you in person. I will sure give you a quarter.
Actually I was wondering
why I had put you on ignore, since your posts were sensible and nice to read (as I checked today). But it was this obsession on
me that was becoming tiresome and derailing the thread.
298.
Post 3400731 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
(Bitstamp figures used) If we set the beginning of the current upmove to $122, which was the base in early October, and the high point to $205.4, we have the following Fibonacci levels:
1st: $173.5
2nd: $153.9
3rd: $141.7
I have been successfully trading but watching the 2nd level almost always. If we are talking about a daily move, the base is the plateau in the last 12-24 hours, if medium-term move, the base is the last consensus when price was flat for several days or weeks.
We already touched $157 and now the price is going up with a vengeance. There are several scenarios:
- Price will continue to go up, and surpass the intermediate high of $205 in a few days, so that this will be remembered as a flashcrash. In February-March we had several of them, shaving off 20-30% of the price but leaving no mark except on those who sold out and did not manage to buy back in.
- Price will fall back to where we started ($120s), which questions the viability of the whole supposed uptrend or this October, turning it to a bull trap. meh87 is advocating this.
- We are currently experiencing a Fibonacci retracement on our way to higher highs. This would point to a reasonable probability of revisiting $150s, and underline the support found there. If I had money in the exchange, I would try to fish from there, and not hope for going any lower. If several days pass and the uptrend is resumed, the scenario still holds but the opportunity to buy has already passed.
299.
Post 3401016 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
(Bitstamp figures used) If we set the beginning of the current upmove to $122, which was the base in early October, and the high point to $205.4, we have the following Fibonacci levels:
1st: $173.5
2nd: $153.9
3rd: $141.7
I have been successfully trading but watching the 2nd level almost always. If we are talking about a daily move, the base is the plateau in the last 12-24 hours, if medium-term move, the base is the last consensus when price was flat for several days or weeks.
We already touched $157 and now the price is going up with a vengeance. There are several scenarios:
- Price will continue to go up, and surpass the intermediate high of $205 in a few days, so that this will be remembered as a flashcrash. In February-March we had several of them, shaving off 20-30% of the price but leaving no mark except on those who sold out and did not manage to buy back in.
- Price will fall back to where we started ($120s), which questions the viability of the whole supposed uptrend or this October, turning it to a bull trap. meh87 is advocating this.
- We are currently experiencing a Fibonacci retracement on our way to higher highs. This would point to a reasonable probability of revisiting $150s, and underline the support found there. If I had money in the exchange, I would try to fish from there, and not hope for going any lower. If several days pass and the uptrend is resumed, the scenario still holds but the opportunity to buy has already passed.
Beautiful analysis!
Thanks. The
initial crash dipped straight to the 1st Fibonacci level, and the second selloff is almost there in the 2nd level. If it had gone a few bucks lower, I would think that's it. Now I hope that we revisit the lows. No money at stake because I did not sell (it was a troll).
Perhaps I'll just have to send some to Bitstamp to be able to play..
300.
Post 3402947 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
That's it folks. I sold all
Failure to overcome previous ATH creates a massive double top, it is hard to say where the price will go, but in 6 months my guess would be in the $13-$50 range. Thank you
the hell? not sure if joking.
If he's not joking they gave him a very weird treatment at that hospital LOL
Yes, I was joking. Believe me. Don't blame the hospital. I love big brother.
(Read my
new thread, I am investigating the origins of the oligarchy
)
301.
Post 3412047 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Check how the bitcoins are distributed between holders of different size.
(link is directly to results, backed by 4 pages of theory, models and discussion)
302.
Post 3414796 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
We should open a new mining company. A virtual mining company that sells shares.
We will give you back 25% of your investment in 2 years. No hardware required.
Yeah. What is the problem?? If we actually bought hardware, that would further diminish the yield by increasing difficulty!!
303.
Post 3415371 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
You'd have to calculate different scenarios of difficulty growth.
That does not alter the outcome very much though, as the near future is near certain and after 2 months, not many coins will be generated in any scenario.
304.
Post 3419456 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
This just isn't the same climate, with the same risks, as 6 months ago. $100 is long gone, pending very, very bad and improbable news.
IF somebody is afraid of $100 and wants to hedge against, I am willing to write the puts. Procedure:
- You select parameters (length, strike)
- I quote the price
- You pay the
BTC- If before maturity you want to sell bitcoins to me at Strike (say, $100), I am obligated to buy them and pay $$
- If it expires, I get to keep the premium you paid.
305.
Post 3422031 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Bitcoin will be trading at 10K this time next year.
No it won't. Wanna bet 100
BTC?
306.
Post 3422066 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Bitcoin will be trading at 10K this time next year.
No it won't. Wanna bet 100
BTC?
no that is a ridiculous amount of money to bet on a hunch
(see what I did there)
307.
Post 3422505 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Bitcoin will be trading at 10K this time next year.
No it won't. Wanna bet 100
BTC?
It would be good if everyone who makes wild speculations regarding bitcoin where faced with that bet, perhaps there would be less rubbish and more sense in the community!
It's particularly funny it's rpietilla offering the bet.
Lol, he didn't take the "300k by the end of the year" bet
Yeah, what the hell, why is he betting against 10k for a year from now? haha
Maybe he thinks it will be higher than 10k.
No, I think in 12 months it likely is less than $10k:
- 12 months ago it was $10 and now it is $200 so a 20-bagger
- To reach $10k it would have to go up 50x. Not impossible by any means (from pizza to June2011 high is 13000-bagger
in 12 months). But I think the probability is less than 50% which makes me eager to take this side of a bet.
To retain some credibility for a bull, I will be revising the $300k long term figure up, once I estimate, how high it should be revised.
308.
Post 3422799 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Tzupy just earned an ignore. See he has a trollface in his avatar!
309.
Post 3430220 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
LOL
Bubblepop?
That's the sound of champagne bottles opening in anticipation of the ATH.
LOLOL
310.
Post 3430317 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
My old man (72 years old) just sold 100 BTC at $110.
I convinced him to buy 1000 at $8. He has now recovered his investment plus ~40%.
I got a case of Veuve Clicquot out of it.
My old man is at it again. Sold 100BTC at AUD$205
This time I'm getting half of a 5KW Solar Panel setup.
Total Sold: 200BTC for $31,000. Just short of 300% realized profit on investment.
Remaining Balance: 799.5 BTC
He said he is getting old and plans to sell 100BTC at each "hundred" mark. e.g $300, $400 etc...
He's expecting to have less than 500BTC by June 2014.
Nice story
Try to make him sell after each double instead. He nets much more and the bitcoins don't run out so quickly.
311.
Post 3435647 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Bitstamp broke 200 USD! When does 300 USD broke? With 10% daily growth it takes 5 days.
With a constant growth of 10% per day it takes only 4 days, 6 hours and 6 minutes!
312.
Post 3435984 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Note to self: Below $200 == dip.
Yeah, the times are back..
holding fiat or anything else equals shorting bitcoin, 'cause you could have bought bitcoins if you sold that other stuff
313.
Post 3437141 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
I think there are 3 types of bitcoiners at the moment.
1) The pre-$135/btc long term holder, who knows that right now btc's true value is not ~$200 and they will not buy at that price, when a discount may be around the corner, and feel btc's true value is around $100-$150.
2) day traders, don't care what the price is but the market volatility just now is not inviting to participate in.
3) October 2013 new blood from recent spike, to these folk anything under $230 is a good price as they have seen it's potential. They are probably the ones fueling this dance around the $200 mark.
A lot of excitement about the price rise recently but it appears to have no determination to continue. i think we are looking at $140 - $170 without a panic, in the following weeks. With panic who knows....The Chinese love their money, if it starts disappearing in front of their eyes....
4) True believers which think everything below $10,000 is too cheap to sell.
5) Ultimate believers that measure all their gains and losses in bitcoins and are hell-bent on increasing their bitcoin balance in every opportunity. "Selling" in their terminology is obtaining more bitcoins and USD is only relevant in the timing of gaining more coins.
314.
Post 3437171 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
5) Ultimate believers that measure all their gains and losses in bitcoins and are hell-bent on increasing their bitcoin balance in every opportunity. "Selling" in their terminology is obtaining more bitcoins and USD is only relevant in the timing of gaining more coins.
rpietila are you still calling for correction down to $150 or whatever the number was? you said we were going down a few days ago. let's go down already!
Yes I was hoping to use my authority to take it to $150-$160 area to scoop more coins. But it didn't obey so I bailed out and sold all my USD at about 195. Now it can go whereever it will. I am always anxious when I hold USD or EUR. Gold, silver and bitcoin give me peace.
(The silver spoons joke was pretty good, since at times I have owned thousands of them, but not now.)
315.
Post 3440358 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
They don't understand what backs Bitcoin and when I point out it's backed by whatever I'm or anyone else is voluntarily willing to trade for it they quit talking about it and end off with the "I just don't know" ultimately it depends who you talk to.
I'm hoping the media sparks more in-depth research.
Perhaps the bitcoin distribution model is carefully designed to retain the coins in hands of the intelligent, the honest and the simple:
- intelligent hear about it first and being relatively rich and/or tech-savvy, can acquire many
- honest have distrust and disdain towards fiat, so convert to bitcoin easily and have no urge to sell
- simple see that others have become rich and just imitate them by buying and holding.
316.
Post 3440623 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
There will be the standard several-weeks' time delay for that surge, though. Still, even discounting all of that, I think we're going up toward the ATH and within a week or two, then beyond. (Very very short-term fall is possible.)
It is all probabilities ofcourse, but I don't see anymore, how sales would overwhelm buys.
The story might be a final push for many who have just waited over the months and years.
Btw. the most interesting part IMO was that
despite a million percent gain, he only sold 20%. With the remaining 4000 bitcoins he is among the top 200 worldwide and why not - Norway is one of the remaining independent countries. Even the taxman was curious to make the regulations conform to bitcoin and not the other way round.
317.
Post 3442447 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
"I think Bitcoin could be worth upwards of $500,000 to $1 million a coin." -Former Facebook Vice President Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath means business.
He has more coins and his coins are more valuable than mine
318.
Post 3447904 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Why is this happening now?
319.
Post 3448559 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
This was so hot, it was moved to off-topic by the BTTT. (List of bitcoin richest people with references)
320.
Post 3450128 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
By giving a sthi about WU, I am able to serve the Bitcoin community much more:
Coin is undervalued.
Target for November $310, see how.
321.
Post 3450440 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Yeah, it is absolutely a sign of craziness to care to do linear regression these days.
322.
Post 3451109 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
mah87 is so sad. Where did he get the
BTC10 required to buy the donator tag??
323.
Post 3451488 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Of course they aren't affected, Gox users can't even fiat out and don't want to fiat in, when coins are cheaper elsewhere!
LOL
324.
Post 3452000 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
virtex is acting weird!
there is this huge wall at 210 when it could be placed at 205 and still be top bid.
why pay +5$ if you don't have too...
If he makes it a market order the slippage will raise the price past $220. Looks like he's impatient, by putting the price "higher than it should be" he's encouraging impulse sells. I know I'm tempted...
Don't take it too seriously it's just
BTC150 or what...
325.
Post 3455063 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Leveraged Positions should raise volatility, because they up directional volume in the short term, and then crash it when people are forced to cover.
Leveraged positions
should lower volatility, because the people do not aim to lose all their money, rather make more. Using leverage, they can smooth out the market moves with greater amount of capital than what they possess.
That people with no theoretical framework on what they are doing, and <5 years of trading experience use leverage, cannot end well.
326.
Post 3468997 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
We are going down to $150 soon. The end is nigh
Imagine hearing that a year ago. We would be so thrilled :-).
At $10 that would have sounded like this sounds now:
We are going down to $3000 soon. The end is nigh
327.
Post 3469335 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
disclosure: I might own some NEOBEE shares
Disclosure: at times, I might own the World. Do your own due diligence before investing.
328.
Post 3470428 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
I just clicked "buy all" because end of banking holiday and huge public interest and other fundamentals. Not a huge amount by any standards because I'm close to all in most of the time anyway.
Haha...... $204.18 per coin is so INSANELY UNDERVALUED that you buy ALL-IN in the beginning of the week, LMAO
329.
Post 3470527 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
I just clicked "buy all" because end of banking holiday and huge public interest and other fundamentals. Not a huge amount by any standards because I'm close to all in most of the time anyway.
Haha...... $204.18 per coin is so INSANELY UNDERVALUED that you buy ALL-IN in the beginning of the week, LMAO
There is literally no reason for the price to hover at 204 for yet another week. Do you really think it will go down?
I would give 62/38 that it will go up. Yeah, that is pretty strong..
330.
Post 3470850 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
62/38 is actually conservative, considering that (in Mt.Gox) any random week has in 64% probability been positive, only 36% negative.
Serious stuff...
331.
Post 3476853 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
For the first time in btc-history Mt.Gox lost his 30day volume leadership.
This IS historic! Poor Karpeles
332.
Post 3477333 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
German Bitcoin.de 165€ (it's not just one trade) and Gox 162.5€... Any new news from Germany perhaps?
Holy crap, 165€
Still way behind my infamous record of 240€
(Yes, I had several people buying at that price)
333.
Post 3477428 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
Plus the higher we go, the more potential we have for early early adopters to start profit taking. Many missed out on the 2 hour window on April 10th and will want to make sure they get in on this.
Who are the early adopters? What makes you think they are looking for a selling opportunity?
Perhaps me and my friends are not early adopters but second class people, but I've heard from none of us that $1000 would prompt much selling.
Perhaps the really really early adopters such as sirius (second only to Satoshi) have already sold, like he sold in 2011 to buy an apartment.
The largest holders who both came in early and have not sold so far, are maybe not inclined to sell now any more than at any previous intermediate top.
=>
Only nonbelievers sell, and there are very few nonbelievers in the early adopters, who still have coins.
The new entrants of 2013 may sell after a quick 5- or 10-bagger, but then they would have already sold after a 100%, 50% or even 20%.
I actually believe that the
bubble intermediate top may form quite similarly as last time. When all "profit takers" have sold, then it really takes off. We are not even close to that yet. There will be much grinding in the mundane levels below $500, and then a stellar overshoot.
334.
Post 3477542 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
German Bitcoin.de 165€ (it's not just one trade) and Gox 162.5€... Any new news from Germany perhaps?
Holy crap, 165€
Still way behind my infamous record of 240€
(Yes, I had several people buying at that price)
Sorry to disapoint but you come a poor second.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169881.0Yes Satoshi's sold for £50 (80 USD) each
Well I came first if the qualification is
BTC50 minimum per day.
335.
Post 3478213 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
In the meantime, BTCChina broke it's pre-correction high of 1334 CNY.
I just missed 1337!
1337 is unmissable
336.
Post 3478526 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
I didn't see much whale buys during this rally btw, this was different in april if i remember right. Or am i wrong?
Whales are selling slowly and constantly putting medium walls (1k-3k) on bitstamp, little fish are buying the current hype and may bleed later on..
As for Gox its an abandoned house.
I propose a better terminology for grouping the different kind of market actors. Or please tell me, what are the behavioral characteristics of the whales, as opposed to smaller fish?
As far as I know, big holders don't sell.
337.
Post 3478924 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
My question is, why don't we see new whales coming up yet? Or do we have to be more patient?
I think they will show up, but i'm curious why it takes them so long.
This is just too early. Comparable to
January (the last time when we had 4 positive weeks in a row).
Smart whales have bought already, impatient whales help us to cross $1000 and $2000.
338.
Post 3480160 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
Oh no! Bubblepop! 228 and tanking.
In my understanding, it will not go lower than 212.5 (Bitstamp). 2nd Fib.
339.
Post 3480178 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
Oh no! Bubblepop! 228 and tanking.
In my understanding, it will not go lower than 212.5 (Bitstamp). 2nd Fib.
Yes, false alarm. Rpietilla, can I pm you?
sure
340.
Post 3480524 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
Oh no! Bubblepop! 228 and tanking.
In my understanding, it will not go lower than 212.5 (Bitstamp). 2nd Fib.
It was just an intraday correction, bouncing back from the 217.36 first Fibonacci line (which I don't even trade).
341.
Post 3480879 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
Ain't it the truth.
I think truth is
- buy low
- sell high
...
- buy higher
"Losing all your money" is difficult w/ bitcoin.
342.
Post 3481116 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
How is it that they have no requirement to understand
anything in the university concerning the topic they are researching...?
343.
Post 3481118 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
At this point, it seems close to impossible that we don't test the all time closing high of 229 on Bitstamp today. Or tomorrow at the latest.
What is the all time intra day high on bitstamp?
259
344.
Post 3481203 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
Looks like they are talking about 51% attack and blockchain forking, without actually understanding what they talk about...
Or at a bare minimum, not contributing anything that has not been there since day 1.
345.
Post 3481779 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
no need to quote even if you reply: others want to ignore the sucker, but now we need to see his "message" 3 times...
346.
Post 3487108 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
And so goes the waiting game.
LOL you're the only one awake
347.
Post 3487237 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
You too.
348.
Post 3487831 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
What happens when we hit 266?
You can imagine. A lot of USD trapped on Gox, and an increasing scarcity of coins, which usually preceeds bubbles... See graph below.
After $266 -> to the moon.
It would be cool to have this info, but from Bitstamp. Might it be possible?
Btw. you probably realize that it is going UP.
349.
Post 3488204 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
I have a similar metric on Coinorama.net
Select Bitstamp exchange and look at the Bids/Asks ratio (second chart on the left).
In the settings, disable the normalization to get the Bids/Asks ratio price.
Unfortunately, I currently don't keep track of independent values for Bids sum and Asks sum.
Cheers,
Thanks a lot! This was very helpful
350.
Post 3491937 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
I would eat my balls and lead a happy life everafter.
Witnessed
Molecular has created so epic quintuple-spend with his balls already, I suspect that all the transactions will be nullified and he still has them in 2016.
351.
Post 3496938 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
I invested only 20% bitcoin, the rest gold and silver - what an idiot!
This sort of blunder self-corrects in a few months. (I only invested 1%
)
352.
Post 3498939 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
Maybe he is merely waiting for the bids to fill in before dumping that 10K.
Then he will wait for the asks to fill in before buying them all up.
Yeah. Selling low, buying high => path to success.
353.
Post 3500014 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
i realy should buy back now....
what made you sell? analysis, logic and systematic trading perhaps?
354.
Post 3504223 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
They're drawn to the historic volatility.
haha
355.
Post 3504236 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.20h):
Coinbase = 274
MtGox = 266.5
Easy exit from gox, buy coins and arbitrage selling on coinbase.
looks like a good place to sell, only if i wanted to sell
Good news everybody - I will be selling
BTC2,000 if we hit 600 this month, or 700 the next!
356.
Post 3507252 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Flashcrash alert.
The rest of the week may be choppy since we are already so much higher than last week. The weekly gains tend to normalize, and I would not be surprised to see Sunday at around 280-300 like we are now.
Retest of previous ATH from the above in the form of flashcrash is probably coming. I don't believe sub-250 territory will be visited edit: except during the flashcrash.
Risk of a change in main trend is low.
Looking forward, it is better to buy now than wait. I would be wary if price goes 600+ in November or 700+ in December, since they may be overextended.
357.
Post 3507319 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
I can possibly invest 5k - 50k .. not asking you to decide for me... but would you go all in and sit on it at this point in time?
With all probability 266 has become a floor. Since you should anyway not take
risks with bitcoin (not invest more than you seriously, honestly can lose), now it is optimal to buy as quickly as possible. The price is rising and nobody knows how high it will rise, and even if it collapses afterwards, the new low is probably higher that previous ATH:
2011: $2 low vs. $1 old ATH
2013(1): $60 low vs. $32 old ATH.
Next week the price can be 500, then I would not buy any more, it starts to make sense to wait.
358.
Post 3509133 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Looks like were hitting some resistance from Americans waking up and getting shaky fingers. Usually at this point I would think we were in for some slowdown, but after seeing how we ate through the 10k wall yesterday I wouldn't be surprised if we were at 350 by this afternoon.
350 today is madness, in my opinion it is quite possible that we see 250 first, (as part of the final goodbye to anything 2XX).
It is already thursday, and in March it was generally the highest for the week. Weekend = crash.
Btw. does anyone know of a reliable leveraged platform for trading bitcoins? Bitfinex I know of. How about
this?
359.
Post 3511442 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Who had fun last night?
Me also. Like your sig, but unfortunately I am no venture capitalist
360.
Post 3512210 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
a real bubble would be one where the price goes beyond the expect value of bitcoin if bitcoin was 3% of the world
Yeah, quite certainly there will be a bubble in bitcoin, and then we are talking about a serious bubble where million satoshis is called a millionaire and similar crazy stuff.
Remember, long term, not much above $300k is realistic
361.
Post 3513297 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Bitcoin value doubled in 3 months
19 times in a row
362.
Post 3517357 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
going pretty parabolic here.
I think a weekend dip is on the cards. Not that it mattered much..
I like the market as long as every week is green, and this one will certainly be even after a dip.
363.
Post 3518076 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Good that law enforcement does their job efficiently.(Utterly lamentable that substances are outlawed, creating an oppressed situation for mankind, leading to victimless crimes and criminals, more law enforcement and more oppression)
364.
Post 3520553 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
The one thing this rally is missing is some new Bitcoin songs...
We are so early phase, but have to admit that this week has been rather brisk action. Just don't forget that a normal 20-25% flashcrash from these levels is almost $100
365.
Post 3520610 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
My gods, I thought there'd be at least some resistance
We experienced the same thing in March when we soared past $50. Everybody bought so quickly that coins ran out temporarily.
Perhaps it is best to wait patiently until it crashes from $2000 and then buy at $500 or so when the volume is high. (I mean for those who want to buy in big)
366.
Post 3529081 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
took more losses and bought some more back!
My last sale was at 375. My next sell is for 400.
thats the best way to do it, sell little bits slowly as its rising.
Sell all as soon as possible. It will recover for a time, but each bottom is deeper that the previous one.
367.
Post 3529082 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
USD
368.
Post 3531097 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Bitcoin value doubled in 3 months
19 times in a row
It is a nonsense.
a) 2^19 = 524 288
b) $266 / 524 288 = $ 0,000507354736328125
19*3 = 57 months. 57 months ago was January 2009.
$400 / 2^19 = $0.001 which was the electricity cost to mine them back then.
369.
Post 3531361 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
I wonder if 2014 will be the year that we start to see Chinese exporters demanding bitcoins instead of dollars?
Every other country except China or Russia would be invaded for such bla$phemy...
...we live the most interesting of times
370.
Post 3537937 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Panic some more, please. It is so fun to watch
What we are seeing now was not so hard to predict:
Flashcrash alert.
The rest of the week may be choppy since we are already so much higher than last week. The weekly gains tend to normalize, and I would not be surprised to see Sunday at around 280-300 like we are now.
Retest of previous ATH from the above in the form of flashcrash is probably coming. I don't believe sub-250 territory will be visited except during the flashcrash.
Risk of a change in main trend is low.
Looking forward, it is better to buy now than wait. I would be wary if price goes 600+ in November or 700+ in December, since they may be overextended.
BUT
A
real crash will have the following characteristic:
- price will have risen really high, really quickly over several weeks
- 100,000s of bitcoins are brought to the market by large manipulators that are sure of their ability to tip it over
- Some bitcoins will be sold to induce the forced closure of leveraged positions, resulting in a flashcrash
- Price will quickly bounce back to almost where it was
- The following day/night lots of bitcoins will be sold to destroy the market sentiment and start a panic
- Exchanges, information services, this forum, etc. will be ddosed, mass media publicity will be enormous and negative
- Price will plummet so that about 3 weeks' gains will be erased (about 75% from the high), although it will remain above the previous ATH (in this case $266) by a clear margin.
I won't go into details why it happens this way, but a big reason is that exchanges utterly lack liquidity and btc/usd-rate is therefore at a mercy of manipulators.
371.
Post 3539490 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
The funniest prediction I remember was rpietila saying it would never go below $100 again.
Within less than 24 hours of this prediction the price hit around $90. I'm still not convinced it wasn't him who sold it down to this level.
Trust nobody !
Predicting is difficult. I am almost always wrong. But when I am right, I tend to play with higher stakes so it evens out.
372.
Post 3539562 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
So few coins in Gox that I am sure a 5000 BTC wallmaker could churn out some profit today...
373.
Post 3539676 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
So few coins in Gox that I am sure a 5000 BTC wallmaker could churn out some profit today...
You and rontus trying to get more coins?
It is hard to beat buy&hold, but sometimes we try...
374.
Post 3556604 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
It helps... but it was never that hard to get money into China. It's getting it out that has always been the problem. Bitcoin can certainly help though. I'm not sure how much in demand USD are these days... but people do always need to buy things overseas.
LOL, once you finally can get them, they are not wanted anymore..
375.
Post 3556969 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
First negative statement from Chinese government and it will be raining cheap coins. This 'china rally' looks good, feels like bitcoins going somewhere but the slightest sniff of the Chinese people feeling any sort of financial 'freedom' and the rug will be pulled from under them. In the long run this will probably be bad. Price will plummit, hobby investors who bought in at 300+ will see their investments dissapear. Not good for bitcoin.
Take us back to a pre-China steady incline, we will go
slower but stronger in the long run.
Damn that sounds a bit depressing.
It is
your government that tries to take away the last vestiges of freedom from its people. China has been abused enough, and finally has a chance. And does not need your help, thank you.
376.
Post 3557590 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
I think this is not applicable. It should be done on a logscale. It wont work there.
I have more stuff in you-know-what-logscale thread. We are actually already doing overspeed. This month's trendtarget was revised down to $296. The big retracement of Apr 10 started when we were 3.9x trendtarget.
377.
Post 3566445 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
Could it be that the Bitcoin popularity arrived at a bad time? I mean this year the price surged and many people became aware of Bitcoin but looking at the infraestructure that surrounds Bitcoin you can see that it is still in its infancy so I imagine many people who got interested in it at first also got dissapointed when they found all the trouble trading with Bitcoins entails, all the technical stuff surrounding it and the kind of shadyness of many of the services surrounding the virtual coin. For example the noobishness of some of the big exchanges. I can't help but feel that the hype was somehow kind of wasted because of all these problems. Maybe later when the infraestructure is more mature people will adopt it faster and it will become a much bigger phenomenon. What do you think?
This is why the exchange rate is still quite low.
Bitcoin is a marathon, not a sprint.
Yeah. If we did not have the undeveloped infrastructure, people could just easily buy bitcoins, and the price would rise really fast and be already much higher. You can't have it both ways.
378.
Post 3566827 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
Yeah. If we did not have the undeveloped infrastructure the infrastructure of the banks was up-to-date, people could just easily buy bitcoins, and the price would rise really fast and be already much higher. You can't have it both ways.
Infrastructure......what a fancy name for hobnobbing with dinosaur banks....
fixed
379.
Post 3567954 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
No fuel to take off? Come on!
Amount of fuel needed is
calculated here.
During fast runups, every X USD raises the market cap by 10X USD. In other words, every 1M USD of new money raises the price by $1.
380.
Post 3569472 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
heart in mouth
did anyone get the gif on bitcoinity when we hit 400? shuda been nice no? or do they only happen for stamp prices now?
Ask and you shall receive:
Pizza index: $4,000,000
If it wasn't a pizza for gods earlier, it is now.
The most expensive pizza in history. By far.
Platinum is the most expensive thing that you can buy from a metals market, beating gold and rhodium. For the amount mentioned, you can buy 11 pizzas made out of pure platinum (weighing 8 kilograms a piece due to platinum's density), and still have $150k left over, since it is not enough for making the 12th pizza.
381.
Post 3571919 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
Well, nobody ever went broke taking profits
The only way you take profits in bitcoin is to buy some. The cheaper you buy, the more profits you take.
Spending bitcoins may be fun, but I wouldn't call it profits...
Goxbux is showing the way how all bux will be treated in not so distant future.
382.
Post 3611610 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
the lack of volume pushing us here is disturbing.
These days it is much more difficult to estimate volume. More exchanges, some have free trading, much more opportunities to trade extra-exchange etc. I am not worried about that, it is a different game now.
But - It is true that exchanges are now very vulnerable to engineered crashes.
BTC10k market order would take Gox down by $100 (20%). If topping the April rally took a million bitcoins as some claim, now
BTC100,000 is handsomely enough. Exchanges still gauge the price despite their low share of the total volume.
Conclusion is that you should never sell to sinking or low prices. Only sell high, if ever. That keeps the manipulators in check, because they cannot be sure to be able to buy back cheaper. Also you have no chance to ever lose.
Any longer term (6-12 months or longer) it matters absolutely nothing at all what kind of boom or crash there is in between. Bitcoin's viability as a technology is not dependent on that.
383.
Post 3611847 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
Expect some resistance:
Seems legit.
384.
Post 3611952 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
Expect some resistance:
Seems legit.
Anyway, if we follow that purple line indefinitely, I'm not complaining
We are already 50% over the monthly-average exponential trendline, so a retracement is possible any time.
If the price dipped to $400 right now, would you buy? $350? $300?
The fewer buyers, the more vicious the crash will be.
I think that if we go down from here, it will be 2-3 months maximum until we get back. Also $266 will not be violated. By bitcoin standards, this should hardly even be called a correction...
385.
Post 3612029 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
We are already 50% over the monthly-average exponential trendline, so a retracement is possible any time.
wow, you bearish?
The definition of trendline is that (about) half of the time price is over the trend, and half of the time it is under the trend.
It is therefore smart to buy when price is below trendline, and sell if it goes too high above it.
I do not easily recommend selling for trading purposes, because buy&hold works better.
But if you have been in it for a long time and want to sell periodically, we have just entered the period where it makes sense to sell.
386.
Post 3612997 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
We are already 50% over the monthly-average exponential trendline, so a retracement is possible any time.
wow, you bearish?
The definition of trendline is that (about) half of the time price is over the trend, and half of the time it is under the trend.
It is therefore smart to buy when price is below trendline, and sell if it goes too high above it.
I do not easily recommend selling for trading purposes, because buy&hold works better.
But if you have been in it for a long time and want to sell periodically, we have just entered the period where it makes sense to sell.
Don't forget that if we spend significant time significantly above your trendline...
...you should re-draw your trendline
Sure. With
this methodology it is easy, because the datapoints are monthly weighted averages and new points are added only once per month. December target based on Jan2009-Oct2013 is $404.
I do not suggest anyone to buy above $700 this year, it is likely a bubble and you can likely buy cheaper next year if you just wait. Furthermore, I have pounded the table extremely hard from about $195 (the only time I pounded so hard before was February), and everyone wanting to enter in based on my advice should have done it by now.
But do not speculate - unless you intend to permanently start lowering the number of your bitcoins, do not sell.
387.
Post 3615614 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
no more coins on gox beyond 550. but i still have no idea how next week will play out …
$25 million on Gox on orderbook vs 12k BTC. ATH and ATL respectively. If Gox USD issues are as real as people say, the PANIC buying to move out BTC at considerable loss could be epic.
If Mark wanted, he could just pay the whole $25M from his left pocket (by selling BTC into it) and then Mt.Gox would not be short any USD.
388.
Post 3620642 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
Its time to sell all?? its going to correct down? or it going for 700??? Cant sleep...
Depends on so many factors. I think, first of all, you decide whether you have already had your maximum number of bitcoins or are still accumulating.
If accumulating, buy all the time and especially on dips. Now is not a 'dip', but it still qualifies for 'all the time'.
If divesting, sell on peaks. If you are sitting on good gains, it might be good to start selling already. Sell a total of 20% in this peak that we will be having soon.
Whether it is a peak or a dip, construct a
rising exponential trendline and follow it.
Do not swing-trade or daytrade unless you know. I don't know any successful bitcoiners who daytrade.
389.
Post 3620754 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
successful bitcoiners[/b] who daytrade.
daytrading works on high volatility days when crashes and corrections occur. If the price is making 15%+ swings, this will give you enough room to pay your commissions and have a margin of error to make mistakes and still profit.
How much did you make daytrading (y-t-d), and how much could you have made doing something else?
390.
Post 3620771 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
Its time to sell all?? its going to correct down? or it going for 700??? Cant sleep...
Depends on so many factors. I think, first of all, you decide whether you have already had your maximum number of bitcoins or are still accumulating.
If accumulating, buy all the time and especially on dips. Now is not a 'dip', but it still qualifies for 'all the time'.
If divesting, sell on peaks. If you are sitting on good gains, it might be good to start selling already. Sell a total of 20% in this peak that we will be having soon.
Whether it is a peak or a dip, construct a
rising exponential trendline and follow it.
Do not swing-trade or daytrade unless you know. I don't know any successful bitcoiners who daytrade.
Im still accumulating, but trying to sell on peaks to buy later cheaper, ive sold almost all at 400 but finally bought again at 500 and now i dont really know what to do, im a beginner... looks like it going up to maybe 1k i dont want to lose the train lol, neither the crash explode on my face ;-)
If you are still accumulating, don't sell! Easy as that.
Also since you are accumulating, when the crash hits, just refresh your wallet balance every 5 seconds. As long as it stays the same, you are doing good. If you scrape some cash to buy some more, you do even better.
WTF is wrong with this generation that sees a purpose in selling all that they have.. Why buy in the first place if you don't want it...
391.
Post 3620887 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
I dont need the money ive invest in BTC, my plan is to keep it some years. The question is if the price crash and drops 50% i would win the double selling and buying at smaller price. I would have 2x BTC when the price rises again..
Tell me when you have it. Dreamer. There is no one in the whole forum who has succeeded in that, however easy it sounds.
I started online trading 15 years ago and have twice in my life been able to increase the number of
BTC by more than 2%. Even that beats the average.
392.
Post 3620959 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
LOL what a dump: 1.5k
BTC -> 12% down
I would like to be in the bubble-pricking team when the time comes after a few weeks
393.
Post 3621050 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
I dont know anything about trading, just some month studing it for btc, i suppossed it was easier to predict a crash but I now know its not :-). most of you didnt sold on april??
Typical wannabe smart traders sold in February, held in March, bought in early April, held during May and June, even during July drop, and sold in September. Bought back in October, are now holding or perhaps already sold. Losing in every stage. No plan whatsoever.
If we take the population who had
any bitcoins in the beginning of 2013, do you honestly think many of them have
more bitcoins now? The oldtimers can remember what was their greatest number of bitcoins, and how many they have now. Not many can increase their stash, except by buying and refusing to sell. That way it is slow, but actually very easy
394.
Post 3621185 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
I dont know anything about trading, just some month studing it for btc, i suppossed it was easier to predict a crash but I now know its not :-). most of you didnt sold on april??
Typical wannabe smart traders sold in February, held in March, bought in early April, held during May and June, even during July drop, and sold in September. Bought back in October, are now holding or perhaps already sold. Losing in every stage. No plan whatsoever.
If we take the population who had
any bitcoins in the beginning of 2013, do you honestly think many of them have
more bitcoins now? The oldtimers can remember what was their greatest number of bitcoins, and how many they have now. Not many can increase their stash, except by buying and refusing to sell. That way it is slow, but actually very easy
Didn't you sell yourself some time ago?
Yes. The selling was according to my divestation plan, but the timing was unforgivingly bad. Following the plan with clear head and analysis, I would probably be selling right now. Instead I sold way too early (in monetary terms, even though it's only a few months) and therefore don't have a new house for Christmas
395.
Post 3621335 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
550 tryng to hold... if not.. sub 500 coins???
The idea of sub-500 coins horrifies me. Who could have ever thought we would descend so low?
396.
Post 3621385 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
550 tryng to hold... if not.. sub 500 coins???
The idea of sub-500 coins horrifies me. Who could have ever thought we would descend so low?
That's the confirmation I've been waiting for.
How do you feel about sub $100 coins ?
I think he was joking.
samson has something against me. We were above 500 in the most reliable exchange (Bitstamp) for only 3 hours. So how could I be serious?
397.
Post 3621522 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
LOL government does not even need to endorse bitcoin in order to kill it, they just need to say they would
398.
Post 3621651 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
Were there actually any whales dumping? Didn't notice to see if there were any 500/1000 BTC dumps. I just saw a lot of small (50 btc) dumps.
50btc are the new whales (snort!)
Oh, craps, you are right. When I started, kilo was the basic unit and 10k was called a wall.
399.
Post 3622057 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
Just half an hour ago, the whole ask orders are around 1000 BTC in BTCChina, but now there're 1600BTC up to 3990 CNY now. It seems a quick small correction attracts quit a lot sellers.
Just wait to see what happens when 60k coins are rapidly dumped as it happened on April, 10th.
It will be interesting to see how this affects the market when it happens.
In "optimal" circumstances, it will drop the market to about its trendline, at most 25% below it. In other words, now it would go to $250-$350 area.
I would not waste my coins just yet, if I were a market manipulator...
400.
Post 3622404 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
How do you know ? the crash has not started yet....
It is borderline possible that the "big crash" just started, but even if this is the case,
BTC is not going below $250 and it takes no more than 4 months to surpass the old highs.
I just don't see the reason for big players to move just yet. Even I haven't moved or sold a single bitcoin during 200->600, because it is just too difficult to buy back in quantity. At 1500 it will be different, because there is money to be made after it crashes to 500.
By playing only big moves and playing them right, you gain much more than by worrying every 25% change in price.
When Gox was down in 11th April, I personally walked around the town buying goxbux and bought at $62-$90 next day. I think I made hundreds of
BTC profit that week. I haven't made any profit since. This is not to underline how good I am. Just that you (collectively) would spend more time thinking and only execute the plan when you have one + the circumstances are right.
All those bitcoins came from the pockets of those whom I try to educate
401.
Post 3622596 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
402.
Post 3624031 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
For once I'll say thank god there is gox to support the price otherwise bitstamp looks like it would go down the rabbit hole. What is going on over there and what happened to the order book? The bid at btcchina doesn't look impressive either.
I had a difficulty logging in at Bitstamp several times today I couldn't do it. When I finally could, I bought about 4 bitcoins with market order
They credit the money usually about this time of the day, and the rally takes 2-3 hours. It is 3:41pm in central Europe, people cannot buy yet as they are working and travel home. Then it will normalize with others. (If not, there is an issue)
403.
Post 3636734 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.25h):
What a shame that Gox is not relevant anymore. Real men are looking for ways to export money from China. There is a million dollar per day opportunity going on.
I just laugh if somebody brings fresh BTC to dump in Gox. No money out - just more whiplash
404.
Post 3639718 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.25h):
I can't understand how any company running this game wouldn't be reinvesting profits into top hardware, if you captured the market it's such a money printing machine. Why do they try and do it on a shoe-string
Simple. If they had invested 2 months ago, the price would have been 6 times higher than now. I also use nearly 3 year old laptop because I want to spend
BTC1 for replacement instead of
BTC10.
Yes it sux but that seems to be the way to operate an exchange.
405.
Post 3644631 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
Quoting myself from another thread:
- I give it 1/3 chance that we have already seen a (quasi-)major interim top in all exchanges
- 2/3 chance that we have already seen the bottom
406.
Post 3650008 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
Despite having accounts in all exchanges, havent been able to trade a coin today. Perhaps there would be an opportune moment to fix
the root of the problem, since otherwise it will
not get better, no matter how big bitcoin becomes.
407.
Post 3651421 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
I have also increased the odds that we are in a bubble correction to about 75%. That said, I expect the following things happen:
- Lowest recorded trade will be in $2XX range, bigger volume around $300.
- It will take only 3-6 months to regain the old highs.
- Volume will all the time be lower than in previous situations, there is no widespread panic or general capitulation
Two bubbles in 2013
Who could have thought...
Beating the yesterday's intraday high (BS: $640, Gox: $750, BTCC: $1000) makes me increase the odds that this is just a weekly consolidation. Every day in declining trend erodes the new investor confidence and induces more and more sales from the earlier investor community.
408.
Post 3652854 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
China isn't buying it, apparently.
China is still selling...
Just watch the charts (24h).
Gox/Stamp up in the last few hours -> against the china trend
China looks more like 3000-3500 CNY.
It is so easy to sell in China. I started the selling program yesterday when I realized that the price had overshot:
- Open the account in
BTC China- After a few hours you get confirmation email
- You can fund your account instantly (no limit in funding)
- Selling works well and liquidity is good - today I have already bought 6.2M CNY
I managed to lose a trading password, needed for initiating transactions. They reseted it on the phone, doing overtime. The clerk spoke very good English. The KYC procedure is also reasonable. No trading fees. Why should I ever trade in the western snailexchange??
Oh yes. How to get back the profits? There is currently a healthy 24% arbitrage between Stamp and BTC China. If you sell now in China, you get $680 equivalent of CNY. When the premium evaporates (during the last 6 months, about half of the time premium has been about 0% and most of the time <10%), you buy back, transfer to Bitstamp, sell and pocket the money.
I don't see how China premium could not revert to <10% in the next 2 days.
409.
Post 3653143 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
come on bears
DUMP YOUR COINS!!
pretty sure they ran out,
if you have not bought back in, bye bye train says
ch000 ch000 m0ther f0k0rz!!!
This kind of posts remind me of the
return-to-normal stage in the classical bubble picture. I have given only 25% odds that we will rest here a few days and challenge the recent highs in short order. 75% that we will have a correction similar but milder than April.
I have also increased the odds that we are in a bubble correction to about 75%. That said, I expect the following things happen:
- Lowest recorded trade will be in $2XX range, bigger volume around $300.
- It will take only 3-6 months to regain the old highs.
- Volume will all the time be lower than in previous situations, there is no widespread panic or general capitulation
Two bubbles in 2013
Who could have thought...
Beating the yesterday's intraday high (BS: $640, Gox: $750, BTCC: $1000) makes me increase the odds that this is just a weekly consolidation. Every day in declining trend erodes the new investor confidence and induces more and more sales from the earlier investor community.
A bull is a person who does not hold fiat.
A bear is a person who holds at least some fiat and wants to return to BTC.
As you can see, I am now a bear. But almost everybody else are bulls. What this means is that you do not have the means to influence price to the upside. Only we do. But we are very few. Also the newbies do. But will they really buy in this kind of situation?
Who owns the bitcoins? Large holders, forum activists, savers, traders and newbies. There are so many groups and so many in the groups that will contemplate selling after every passing hour. Volume is so low that even
BTC10,000 dump is devastating. China is still 60% higher than a week ago, and just scoring the second negative day. (They don't give a squat about bitcoin, just want the profits.)
I think the intraday high should be just about reached now. Expect a vicious dump during the following 20 hours.
410.
Post 3653999 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
Bitcoin is appreciating at 1140% per year. The
trendline price for November is $328 and December $404. After several months of significantly behind the trend, we did a spectacular overshoot to
$1100/$900/$750 across main exchanges. Immediately followed an hourly-term bear market, characterized by (mainly) lower highs and lower lows.
We are now 40 hours after the pop.Currently the price is at
double the trendtarget. You can stretch a rubber band a lot, but when you release, it starts to contract with force. Force must be applied to reverse the course and stretch it back to 3, 4 or more times the trend. The natural tendency of the rubber band is to contract to the trendline and even 25%-40% below it.
Since this bubble developed so rapidly, the trend had no time to catch up or adjust. Therefore, despite my earlier predictions that the next crash bottom will be $500ish (double the pre-bubble ATH), I will have to adjust the downside target to about $300. This is 33% below December trendline, and also higher than the previous ATH, which will act as support. There are currently not many supports between that and the new high. These will be formed as we grind down.
In my observation, the forum is overextended and cannot buy the price up. "Others" will act according to time-tested statistical principles (refer to 4/2013 bubble pop for details). There will be a bear market lasting for weeks. Many in this forum will not acknowledge it even after it is over
It will not be a huge event, and absolutely nothing to care about if you are a long-term holder. But traders do well to understand that sometimes even fiat has its day.
I believe that none of the exchanges surpasses yesterday's high values ($1000/$750/$640) set about 24 hours ago, today or during the remainder of the year, (except Bitstamp at max).
I believe that none of the exchanges surpasses the current values ($700/$630/$600) during the rest of the week, (except for the following hours).
I give 75% probability to the scenario.
Otherwise the common wisdom does not hold, and 2010 is back.
411.
Post 3654044 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
we will go to 3000$ as fast as we possibly can and then start to rise much more slowly / safely.
With MtGox, Bitstamp, BTCe and BTC China.
412.
Post 3654845 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
nice dump.
Wrath of rpietila?
I wasn't angry
But you are right, someone else will continue dumping from now. The gox dump was not me. Expect a new low in MtGox, perhaps also Stamp (not sure is 378 can be crossed). China will totally lose air while I am sleeping (9pm here). 3000 CNY max.
413.
Post 3654946 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
What a retarded dump. epic failed.
The dumps serve twofold purpose:
- Opportunity to sell many coins at reasonable prices
- Scare effect.
Now the price was just too good
Remember - manipulators are never out of coins.
414.
Post 3655094 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
What a retarded dump. epic failed.
The dumps serve twofold purpose:
- Opportunity to sell many coins at reasonable prices
- Scare effect.
occam says dump = taking profits
We don't need fiat profits.
The ones who are interested in fiat do not have so many coins that they could make a dent in the price. As I told above, dump is either manipulative speculation (I) or nasty manipulative speculation (II).
Remember - manipulators are never out of coins.
Yes but it looks like most of them might have $ signs on atm. That looked more like minnows than a whale, maybe just another shakeout though.
The battle is during the next 24-48 hours. If we can force China to stay below 4000, even better <3000, and make a row of daily red candles in western exchanges, then this was officially a bubble, and a bear market will commence for the remainder of the year. The price is still so high, it is profitable to sell and buy back cheaper -
I invite you to join the BEARS!
415.
Post 3655591 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
I love the smell of failed whale schemes in the morning.
Wait. I will call big brother.
416.
Post 3655865 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.26h):
So much for the maturing infrastructure, all exchanges are plagued by glitches not worthy of a multi billion currency .
The exchanges are incurable. Do I really need to do
this?
417.
Post 3656714 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
You forget, that you are obligated to accept government currency as a payment.
No you aren't. My business, my terms of trade.
your plucky defiance is inspiring, however...
there are men with guns and state sanction to use them that beg to differ
Bank of Finland (branch of ECB; the Central Bank of Finland) has expressly stated that one is free to decide what he accepts as payment, and this may mean the exclusion of Euro, the official currency. Exception to this are government-sanctioned monopolies such as pharmacies. They are obligated to accept Euro as payment.
In theory, "Euro" is an unlimited number of banknotes of 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 euros, and maximum 50 coins per transaction.
In practice, "Euro" can mean credit and debit cards, even to the exclusion of cash altogether. Also many services do not accept 100 or larger notes, also many places accept more than 50 coins since they probably don't know that they could reject it. Or don't care.
418.
Post 3657007 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
[
I have orders at Stamp for the rest of my fiat down to upper 400s - but I don't want to be left in fiat when new cash comes in.... The bears have another 96 hours or so, MAX. I want to be all in BTC when the noob cavalry with the investor artillery comes riding over the hill.
Bear market will be done soon, then the medium / long bet MUST be UP if the exchanges remain (reasonably) reliable.
Have you seen Stamp's order book? Bid's have exploded. 12.75 mil now. I would be worried about being left with that fiat if I were you, the money is pouring in.
Dont make it worse ;'(
Explosion is due to a simple matter. Europe goes to sleep and prepares for flashcrashes. Of Bitstamp's bids, 5% are mine. When I wake up, I lift them and then the price may move again. Probably not the only one thinking like this..
419.
Post 3657056 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
That picture was much used in the "great denial" market stage in May
420.
Post 3659889 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
And here's why we're not crashing very hard. These bids have all formed in the past day. Throughout this drop, the amount of fiat on btcchina and bitstamp has gone up nearly 100%. bitstamp now has a mtgox-like order book. And then there's the dark orders.
This lets the dumpers get rid of a number of coins. The original pop was achieved with so low volume that there was no possibility to sell in quantity.
Reminder: Dump is not only for suppressing the price but also for profiting.
421.
Post 3659904 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Ye woke up and couldnt resist. This consolidation is taking too long and with all the massive bids, its looking too bullish.
If this is a bull trap, well played bears. Ill take my loss and go back in.
CHOO CHOO MF
Did you check the bids before or after I took 25% off of BTC China orderbook? (Yes, feels like a boss
)
422.
Post 3659972 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Ye woke up and couldnt resist. This consolidation is taking too long and with all the massive bids, its looking too bullish.
If this is a bull trap, well played bears. Ill take my loss and go back in.
CHOO CHOO MF
Did you check the bids before or after I took 25% off of BTC China orderbook? (Yes, feels like a boss
)
"Look at the Chinese buying so many BTC".
Ahem.
China is now about 65% higher than a week ago. If the ones there that actually have bitcoins, decide to take profits, it can and should fall to <3000. Some of the buying in the west in the last 24 hours has gone to keep the lid on China price and there are still arbitrage opportunities left.
It is important that China goes down in daily chart.
423.
Post 3660235 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
So are you saying with all these bids, someone could still crash the market? During the last correction, it was over once we met with these solid bidwalls. What do you think theres some of those guys from the old gox days waiting to dump 100k btc loads all at once?
Did the walls look like this in april before crashing to 50?
How many bitcoins do you have? You don't need to tell me. How much do you know about bitcoin, compared to the ones that have 10x less? Yes, you tend to have a very different knowledge and mindset than they do.
Now is the difficult part. How do the people think that have more bitcoins than you do, let's say 10x more? Don't they think differently than you? What are the implications?
I have a certain number of bitcoins and think a certain way. I extrapolate that the guys above me know even more and better than I do. If they have figured out that this is a good time to have a breather, they will execute their will. If I am wrong, I will eat my losses ($2 million in bank is a such a shame to have). Bitcoin is a managed currency.
--Of course the walls etc. have predictive value, but the difference is: you accept them, I erect them. The actual game is, whether (or: who of the) manipulators can increase their coincount, and how to keep the price appreciating such that it preserves bitcoin's long term potential to replace fiat.
424.
Post 3660638 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
If you think that 27M in bids on Gox and 13M on Bitstamp (both at ATH) is irrelevant well good luck to you trying to swim upstream.
Read the post again, young man.
Upon waking up, I removed 25% of BTC China (world's biggest exchange) bid depth. The guys who have more bitcoins than I do, control the bid depth in Gox and Stamp. When they remove the bids and start rolling, the price moves down however much they like.
This is how it works. Read the post again, so you understand why I wrote it in a byzantine way.
425.
Post 3660727 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Well I think you're just having too much fiat on your hands and want to scoop up more coins at a cheaper price. There are many rich wannabe manipulators in this game but I doubt most are very successful at it.
Actually all of this I can agree with.
Luckily, with bitcoin you never lose. I have set a distribution schedule that goes all the way to $5M/
BTC (in purchasing power). All the time it goes up, I get
more cash flow that can be diversified, while still having
more value in bitcoins. If it goes down, I get to buy back at profit. No matter what happens it's good to be covered.
426.
Post 3660889 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Its more than a bit arrogant to equate # of bitcoins with knowledge or intelligence in trading. It makes you sound small for suggesting it.
More big money is coming into this market and the amount of coins someone needs to "manipulate" it is becoming larger and larger.
Go ahead, dump 10k coins right now. Lets see where we are in 24 hours. I would suggest we would be at the same level or maybe higher.
You want to risk 10k+ coins to see if you can move the market down a few dollars from your average cost of coin sold? Ha. Ok, be my guest.
Unless there are a room full of 50k+ bitcoin owners strategizing together, then I doubt there is very much successful manipulation going on.
I mean, you were on here earlier today preaching bear to try to drive down the price and everyone saw right through your motivations right away.
But, lets do an open experiment. Choose an exchange. Dump 10k coins and see what you can buy them back for. I'd love to see this case study. It certainly would shut everyone the hell up for a while about manipulation and "whale power."
It is not
intelligence but the
resources and tools available for trading:
With
BTC10 trading capital you can pick opportunities that the elephants cannot. But the elephants can use their
BTC1,000 trading capital to manipulate the bid/ask volumes, erect small walls and do dumps. As for the large holders (
BTC100,000), the market is at their mercy when it is ripe for a correction, because they can do whatever they want. Only rule is that when they relinguish coins, the average price has to be higher than the buyback.
For this reason, based on the trend analysis, this was a good chance to go bearish. Even if I am wrong initially, sitting tight on this fiat position is all right because I know that bitcoins are a tad high atm, and only after 4 months they "should" be worth this much.
There may be collusion between some large owners, I don't know. But the same effect follows even if everybody just acts individually, trying to outsmart others.
I think
BTC100,000 manipulates this market more now than ever, because of the exchange situation... But I don't have such money to play with. Otherwise I think you are right.
427.
Post 3660926 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
This might for 6 months be known as the "the chance you had to sell at the top of that bulltrap" but I can't bring myself to do it...
If I was the manipulator, I would lure all the suckers in now, and then drop the bomb with a market order.
The "price per coin sold" times "number of coins possible to sell" is now much higher than at the pop.
Main question - if bitcoin is short term worth this price, no problem. If not, somebody will notice and sell some
428.
Post 3661351 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Many people are modeling the current situation based on the April crash. That of course would make the current bounce a bull trap.
I think we need to remember that the situation is very very different at the moment. April was basically "okay, bitcoin just died" for many. This time I think pretty much everyone is confident that bitcoin is here to stay. Nobody is really scared that their bitcoins will suddenly become worthless. This wasn't the case after the April crash.
The question is not anymore "will bitcoin make it". Bitcoin has already made it. It has already become a massive success story.
This time it's different. This time, it's
so different.
429.
Post 3662158 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Shorting = borrowing coins to sell them, in the hopes that the price per coin will be lower when you have to give them back. A "short sell" is to sell an asset (BTC) you don't own, you just have borrowed it to sell it because you anticipate the price to go down.
That's extremely dangerous with BTC, because the price has the potential to double multiple times very quickly, and thus you can face huge losses by shorting.
That's what "shorting" means, but in these forums many people say they are "short" when they have sold coins, which is not correct. What can you expect in a forum where most of people thinks that ROI is a synonym for break-even....
"Shorting" is that you own any asset that you don't need, but you decide to not sell it and purchase bitcoins instead.
430.
Post 3665214 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
any bears left? xD
Me, and Wekkel. Everybody else is all in.
- Wekkel, do you by chance have 20,000 coins? Lets sell the crap out of this sucker's trap!
431.
Post 3665406 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
any bears left? xD
Me, and Wekkel. Everybody else is all in.
- Wekkel, do you by chance have 20,000 coins? Lets sell the crap out of this sucker's trap!
i hope you still hold some btc!
Yes. I did not empty my Casascius coins, only pawned them...
432.
Post 3665500 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Yes. I did not empty my Casascius coins, only pawned them...
oh man, i really hope you have some btc left... this train might not ever stop again!
Money is actually overrated. AnonyMint is doing well without any
BTC...
433.
Post 3665556 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
434.
Post 3667854 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Mortgage the house and buy some back. Or get a second loan and buy some back. You will eventually be able to pay of the second loan and still have some coins in case (which there is a decent chance) we get to $100,000 and beyond.
Only on bitcointalk can you find this sort of advice. My goodness.
Debt is so deeply rooted in US folks mentality that it hurts. I really have a simpathy for Bitchick, I'm a long-term bull myself, but came on... To advise someone to get in debt (even worse, to mortgage his house) to buy a high-risk experimental currency is so fucked up it blows my mind. We where speaking about "opportunities you cannot afford to lose"... Well, being in debt or losing your house to gamble is something NOBODY should afford to do.
And that type of mentality leads me to think that eventually BTC will implode sooner than later, people tends to auto-destruction and greed is one of the main mind-fuckers.
Rampion is my favorite now
435.
Post 3667922 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Just in case anyone likes to
see with their own eyes what
really happened in Haikko...
436.
Post 3668155 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Double top? Or possible retracement back up?
This will be answered in 24 hours.
I am already giving up the hope for double top, but it does not matter, since my strategy is intact.
437.
Post 3668271 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Is there anyone who wants to exit Litecoins for a nice profit?
I buy LTC in quantity and pay fiat currency your choice.
438.
Post 3668323 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Is there anyone who wants to exit Litecoins for a nice profit?
I buy LTC in quantity and pay fiat currency your choice.
Trying to talk up the market? (I might be getting somewhat paranoid about you trying to influence the market, if so, apologies)
I havent seen any correlation between my ramblings and the market this month. LTC will be mercilessly sold as part of an unbelievably complex arbitrage operation involving exotic countries and high-level government officials.
439.
Post 3668898 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
$750 (Stamp) getting closer. It could be a nice battle, bears seem to have more ammo in the frontlines
I think if we break the ATH on bitstamp ($755), that would be pretty crazy. You might get a lot of people saying "it's different this time" and really believing it.
IMO craziness starts when the btcchina wall at 5000 falls
Pretty lame imo.. the others didn't even notice.
The weekly chart is crazy. Weekend is known for flashcrashes, and there is definitely room for one.
Btw: Everybody count how much your coin stash is worth in dollars! What a nice surprise
I really only made it myself an hour ago. My thinking had stayed on the September level.
440.
Post 3671912 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
This seems like returning to the normal. Everybody: continue being rich!
441.
Post 3672441 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Slowly but surely everyone is starting to figure it out. What's happening right now happened before in March. Almost identical charts. One more crazy run-the-train-of-its-rails rally is brewing. It's going to be epic.
If we go crazy
from here (we are already well above/ahead of the long-term trend), the inevitable result is crash. That is the way turbulence works. This makes it relevant to try to estimate the top and the bottom.
My take:
- Top $2200, bottom $475. Before Christmas.
442.
Post 3672652 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
If we go crazy from here (we are already well above/ahead of the long-term trend), the inevitable result is crash. That is the way turbulence works. This makes it relevant to try to estimate the top and the bottom.
My take:
- Top $2200, bottom $475. Before Christmas.
I was following your posts, there is
always a crash in your post,
each day you post the same prediction,
Man, Bitcoin distorts your sense of time beyond remedy...
My
first bearish post was this:
I have also increased the odds that we are in a bubble correction to about 75%. That said, I expect the following things happen:
- Lowest recorded trade will be in $2XX range, bigger volume around $300.
- It will take only 3-6 months to regain the old highs.
- Volume will all the time be lower than in previous situations, there is no widespread panic or general capitulation
Two bubbles in 2013
Who could have thought...
Beating the yesterday's intraday high (BS: $640, Gox: $750, BTCC: $1000) makes me increase the odds that this is just a weekly consolidation. Every day in declining trend erodes the new investor confidence and induces more and more sales from the earlier investor community.
Check the timestamp - it is 43 hours ago. Not even 2 days!
I previously was a bear for less than 2 days when the April bubble initially popped (correctly), then a short time at $48 last March (failed), a little bearish before the final capitulation in June (correctly), and during all of the bear market in 2011 (correctly, with stellar results). Even if this one proves to be false, I still have 60% track record. (52% is enough to make money, needless to say that the majority is not even close).
Even if I am wrong on this one, I will admit it latest next Monday. This leaves maximum about 10 days (out of 1000) that I have been a bitcoin bear with no reason. 1% of the time.
Bear with it.Back in the old days I was selling silver for bitcoins, and one shipment had delivery issues. A well-respected forum member started to pressure me via private message during a weekend. After several messages, I made a quick decision to refund him the order, since I decided I could not repair his broken time perception. (In the real world, sorting out a possible delivery problem with international postal services does not happen during weekend/night hours. Even the company of mine that was doing the shipping is 100% offline and unreachable until Monday 9 am, and it is in a different country than me. But telling the guy to wait a reasonable "2 weeks" would possibly have escalated the situation)
443.
Post 3673025 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Risto, when do you plan to buy back at a loss - or you already did? (please
bear with me
)
It is not that simple
- "My" holdings are held through multiple organizations, which also have other stockholders, and they all have their different targets for investment allocation.
- Then there are arbitrage, OTC, and exchange operations that require fiat capital and are more profitable when there is high volatility, prompting to have more fiat at those times since it generates more BTC as the arbitrages are juicier (while also providing hedge against catastrophic loss when most needed).
- Then there is our family target of having a balanced allocation of crypto, precious metals, RE and other. Since crypto is the only one that tends to appreciate, if I sell too much and the price-chasing does not work, the situation corrects itself naturally and soon I am again looking for a new bubble to sell into.
=> If I make a move, I do it based on thorough analysis (thousands of lines of Excel data and hours of analysis before this one), have considered all the possible outcomes and assessed the probabilities, found a positive expected value (where the value function is a complex aggregate of all the goals of the different actors whose wealth I manage) and a
bearable worst case. Then I see how it unfolds, and pocket the profit or loss according to the plan.
If bitcoin goes up, it is a profit really, because it opens up new opportunities to influence the world to the better. Also in this case it rewards us with a 7-figure fiat position.
If it goes down, then my greatest pleasure is that my market analysis was correct, and I also get to cash out a small amount of fiat, and keep the bitcoin count the same or even slightly increase it. So this is also profit.
With bitcoin, you cannot actually lose, that is the beauty of it
444.
Post 3673044 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
Someone just posted a huge wall ...
Must be rpietila
I will strike when you least expect it. Hint: saturday night.
445.
Post 3673128 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
A 7 figures fiat-position is just 2k coins ATM. In January this year, 2k BTC was just $40k
In 30% of cases, a number has "1" as the most significant digit, in all other cases it is one of the other 8 digits(, you serf).
446.
Post 3674347 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
If bitcoin goes up, it is a profit really, because it opens up new opportunities to influence the world to the better. Also in this case it rewards us with a 7-figure fiat position.
Oh, please,
bear with me too.
I can see clearly that you have a very complex way of losing!!!
It almost feels like not losing at all, doesn't it?
447.
Post 3674551 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
China is not following. The arbitrage is quickly closing. What happens next is that arbitrageurs buy back in China and sell the equivalent in Bitstamp. At least I will do that
448.
Post 3674614 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
China is not following. The arbitrage is quickly closing. What happens next is that arbitrageurs buy back in China and sell the equivalent in Bitstamp. At least I will do that
Did you sell @ over 1100 @ BTCChina?
Do you buy back in China when Stamp/Gox are at the same level or before (say 770 bitstamp - 820 BTCChina)?
Arbitrage is best when the price differential is the highest. I got more than 50%.
Looking at 6 month chart, China has equalled Bitstamp about half of the time. I see no reason to pay any premium this way.
It is a little bit tricky to do it calmly, because in my case there is overall position management, swing trading and arbitrage all working together. It is like a requirement to think with 3 different brains simultaneously.
449.
Post 3683506 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
it usually makes sense
Bitcoin isn't usual.
All it takes is one mistake when it moves against you and you've permanently ended up with half the BTC you could have owned if you'd have just held.
For most people, holding 100% of the initial amount is not a wise choice. It is good to diversify by selling into strength to account for the possibility of a black swan event in Bitcoin technology. This way you steadily accumulate also non-BTC assets, and can learn how to handle wealth. You sleep better and don't see dips in price as an opportunity to panic, but rather an opportunity to buy back if you really feel like so. The selling plan must be based on percentages, which means that no matter how high bitcoin goes, you still have more value in your remaining BTC.
If you have
BTC1,000 and you absolutely want to have the same number when it hits $million, then it is best to just bury the paper wallet into ground and wake up when you are a billionaire. Trading only makes you lose the most of it over time with no gain. But it is not healthy for anyone to suddenly become a billionaire.
If instead, you flex your Excel muscle and devise a plan to sell
BTC900 in decreasing increments at exponentially rising price points, you will already be rich and well-established when bitcoin hits $1 million, and totally content with the idea that your remaining stash is still worth a cool $100M.
450.
Post 3683768 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
For most people, holding 100% of the initial amount is not a wise choice. It is good to diversify by selling into strength to account for the possibility of a black swan event in Bitcoin technology. This way you steadily accumulate also non-BTC assets, and can learn how to handle wealth. You sleep better and don't see dips in price as an opportunity to panic, but rather an opportunity to buy back if you really feel like so. The selling plan must be based on percentages, which means that no matter how high bitcoin goes, you still have more value in your remaining BTC.
If you have BTC1,000 and you absolutely want to have the same number when it hits $million, then it is best to just bury the paper wallet into ground and wake up when you are a billionaire. Trading only makes you lose the most of it over time with no gain. But it is not healthy for anyone to suddenly become a billionaire.
If instead, you flex your Excel muscle and devise a plan to sell BTC900 in decreasing increments at exponentially rising price points, you will already be rich and well-established when bitcoin hits $1 million, and totally content with the idea that your remaining stash is still worth a cool $100M.
For me, Bitcoin is not an investment - it's immigration.
Instead of being a fiat native who dabbles in Bitcoin, I'm now a Bitcoin native who only deals with fiat reluctantly, when it's unavoidable.
At the present time I pay for more than 50% of my monthly expenses with BTC and that percentage is trending up.
I was quoting prices is dollars for convenience, because this is a large forum where most readers do not use bitcoin as their accounting unit.
Wealth is the same, regardless whether it is measured in bitcoins or dollars, because (in any point of time), bitcoin is a fixed multiple of dollar.
I do advocate using dollar as your accounting unit, since its value (purchasing power) is relatively constant, whereas Bitcoin's purchasing power increases tenfold every year. It is just handy.
But I also encourage to carefully consider that every one of your bitcoins is increasingly likely to reach $1 million in value quite soon. It should be treated as an inheritance, not to be wasted away. Every bitcoin you give away must give you more value than
an extra $ one million would have given you in a few years of time. This is accomplished by selling only so little that the remaining amount is worth more (more dollars, houses, or gold) than the whole stash was in the previous stage.
How you allocate the non-bitcoin part of your portfolio is up to you. I do not advocate holding dollars as any % of it, unless you do arbitrage or something. The value converted from bitcoin should be used to buy silver, gold, castles with apple gardens, businesses, etc.
If you are a world dominator, then it makes sense to acquire as many bitcoins as possible and not care about the above. But who wants in that kind of game anyway...
451.
Post 3683884 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
The "non-bitcoin portion of my portfolio" is my ability to earn a living via means that would still exist if Bitcoin goes to zero.
As far as savings goes, I'm only interested in forms that are transportable frictionlessly across international borders. Whatever form I keep my savings in, it should be capable of travelling with me no matter where I choose to live.
People have different subjective valuations for financial security. In my opinion it is entirely astute to have 80% of your net worth in bitcoin, for you it might be 100%. Many find even 5% intolerable.
Life brings all kinds of situations where you cannot earn a living and need savings. It is foolhardy to think you are immortal.
452.
Post 3684136 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
It is up +100% from the start of the week, and has gone from -33% below the trend to +180% above, in about a month.
Surely you understand that either it is in a real risk of crashing, or laa laa this time is different we <3 Bitcoin.
...but that people sit too tight on their bitcoins is less of a problem than that many sell out all too soon
453.
Post 3684366 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Fill in the blanks:
From March 18 to April 9, in
23 days, bitcoin appreciated
379% against the USD, which is average
7.0% daily. The following day it crashed, erasing all the gains of the last 3 weeks, and providing a stellar buying opportunity.
From November 3 to November 23, in
21 days, bitcoin appreciated
291% against the USD, which is average
6.7% daily. It still has room to appreciate __% in _ days, after which it will _____, erase ___ the gains of the last _ weeks and provide a ________ ______ ___________.
See for yourself
454.
Post 3684551 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
The scornful replies to my observation indicate that you have too many bitcoins and that makes you emotional. I suggest you do what I have done and cash out a couple of $M so that you can sleep better and become less touchy
455.
Post 3684616 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Where do you cash out a couple of $M? Don't the exchanges have limits?
Where there is a couple of $M, there is a way.
456.
Post 3684754 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
The scornful replies to my observation indicate that you have too many bitcoins and that makes you emotional. I suggest you do what I have done and cash out a couple of $M so that you can sleep better and become less touchy
Just sprayed coffee all over the keyboard laughing....
Hilarious, wish I had that solution in my problem solving box!
Finally someone catches the point
Where do you cash out a couple of $M? Don't the exchanges have limits?
Where there is a couple of $M, there is a way.
Someone needs to start a business of "wealth management for bitcoin millionaires" .
Seriously.
Yes, I am a wealth manager, doing that professionally since 2006. My personal APR is something like 40% in last 10 years (bitcoin distorts things everybody has that nowadays..
)
There are so many services that are so important for the bitcoin millionaires, and so few people are in the position to do it. Old world is clueless and/or untrustable. I will be able to make however much I want by selling targeted services to bitcoiners.
The "problem" is that I already have so much money in all possible forms that receiving more of it does not make a difference.
I just continue to offer exactly the services what I perceive to be the most useful (see sig for details). It does not matter if I make money or not. My advice is generally free, I have sold it in the past but it did not feel good. Whoever has an ear, let him hear.
457.
Post 3684863 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
The scornful replies to my observation indicate that you have too many bitcoins and that makes you emotional. I suggest you do what I have done and cash out a couple of $M so that you can sleep better and become less touchy
Nice try... You didn't reply to any of my good non-emotional arguments, but you try to use this cheat-argument to get the attention away from them... and this emotion card is more fit to you, because you changed your strategic and didn't buy back in at loss, what a mistake, am i right?
I select the people whom I ignore with the button, ignore by not replying, or reply with various tones.
I think you are making progress in your postings and are doing good. It didn't feel important to address your remarks, since I have already posted my investment strategy in detail in this thread, and your reply reveals that you have not read it. Of course it is not a requirement for you to read everything that I have ever posted (although I think it is time very well spent). I have no obligation to convince you that I play according to completely different rules. Upon saying that, however, I can explain:
- Most speculators hope that
something will happen, and make trades based upon that. This, in the long term, does not lead to good result due to various factors.
- I estimate the scenarios (what could
possibly happen), estimate probabilities, calculate value functions, and find whether I should realign the portfolio or not. I also decide what I do next in each of the scenarios. I do not buy or sell anything at a whim. I can hardly make a loss because I always select the choice which gives the best expected value. Even if a "negative" scenario happens, it does not change anything, because I never take risks. I spent several hours between the China $1,100 top and the start of selling, analyzing various things, such as the chart that quacks like a duck (100% per week is a parabolic top, no matter how rich you want to be.) Bitcoin can as well go to zero or million dollars. Everything is considered.
TL;DR: I don't find it interesting enough to discuss the topic at such a low level.
458.
Post 3695685 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Bitcoin is not magically cheap at $750, just because it was trading at $900 for a few hours, and twice bounced back.
That new money is going to the exchanges does not automatically mean that it will be invested the first day if the price is trending down and/or hitting a resistance.
Number of bitcoins to be sold in the event of crash trumps any and all new money easily.
1% of 12 million bitcoins =
BTC120,000 = $100M
Current bid depth in all the exchanges combined = $70M.
So <1% of all bitcoins could crash the price to zero.
Of course they wouldn't do it, but it is just naive to think that only the buyers decide the price. In the short term it is very much the sellers who decide, because transferring fiat to the exchanges takes long, and if the sellers take it down like in 10-17. April, new money does not even want to buy any more in the following confusion.
Sure we can go up from here, but if we do, my previous estimate of going up to $2-$3k and then crash to way less than $1k remains valid. Even if the new money entering goes parabolic, increasingly more sellers emerge as they can finally cash out $millions, transform their life, AND leave enough bitcoins to become ultra-rich if the rise continues. This will put some dampener to the price, which is already much ahead of the exponential trend.
The double top and an intermediate term bear market remains a possibility. That would be something new
Funny that nobody is questioning why the price rocketed up
before all the positive news and is now struggling...
$350 is cheap, it is the ATH from 15 days ago
$500 is a reasonable level to start buyback.
If you buy into the delusion of bitcoin singularity, remember it was me who prophesied it first.
459.
Post 3695871 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Bitcoin is not magically cheap at $750, just because it was trading at $900 for a few hours, and twice bounced back.
That new money is going to the exchanges does not automatically mean that it will be invested the first day if the price is trending down and/or hitting a resistance.
Number of bitcoins to be sold in the event of crash trumps any and all new money easily.
1% of 12 million bitcoins =
BTC120,000 = $100M
Current bid depth in all the exchanges combined = $70M.
So <1% of all bitcoins could crash the price to zero.
Of course they wouldn't do it, but it is just naive to think that only the buyers decide the price. In the short term it is very much the sellers who decide, because transferring fiat to the exchanges takes long, and if the sellers take it down like in 10-17. April, new money does not even want to buy any more in the following confusion.
Sure we can go up from here, but if we do, my previous estimate of going up to $2-$3k and then crash to way less than $1k remains valid. Even if the new money entering goes parabolic, increasingly more sellers emerge as they can finally cash out $millions, transform their life, AND leave enough bitcoins to become ultra-rich if the rise continues. This will put some dampener to the price, which is already much ahead of the exponential trend.
The double top and an intermediate term bear market remains a possibility. That would be something new
Funny that nobody is questioning why the price rocketed up
before all the positive news and is now struggling...
$350 is cheap, it is the ATH from 15 days ago
$500 is a reasonable level to start buyback.
If you buy into the delusion of bitcoin singularity, remember it was me who prophesied it first.
If you're still estimating $2 - $3k top, how do you think we'll get there from here? Are we dropping for now, or on the way?
My quick odds for the different scenarios would be:
- Going to the moon = 20%
- Grinding below $1k for some time, then rise to $2-$3k, followed by crash to below $1k = 50%
- Trending down towards $500, probably dipping lower short term = 30%
Since in 80% of the scenarios it will come down to these levels or less, I am in no hurry to buy back. It helps that in the event of moon, I am still numbered among the ultra rich.
EDIT: I read Zangelbert's estimates only after producing mine.
460.
Post 3696239 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
$350 is cheap, it is the ATH from 15 days ago
$500 is a reasonable level to start buyback.
so you're buying back in now?
Now, meaning 'at the moment', I am not buying back in. The price is above $500. My average sale price is $672 and I am not a daytrader. It has to go down a lot before I care to buy back.
Now, meaning 'whether I changed the strategy concerning what to do', the answer is: strategy stays the same until something new happens. Just that price follows some of my old scenarios (goes up, down, or stays put) is not considered 'new'. I don't think I will ever buy bitcoins above $500. If it goes to the moon, my next problem will be when and how much to sell more, as my bitcoins are worth $100M and the rest of my wealth is just a few million$.
I should really post my wisdom concerning position management, because so many are clueless about it.
461.
Post 3696291 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
I am still numbered among the ultra rich.
Probably born that way as well.
Not really. We had a small farm and none of us kids has a university degree.
462.
Post 3697117 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Do you suppose this might have something to do with why you turned out to be an independent thinker?
Well I also don't own a TV, go shopping, read magazines/newspapers, eat processed food, use microwave, never had a 9-5 job etc.
A clear recipe for becoming a business magnate. Try it, you may be surprised
463.
Post 3697466 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Here's the much awaited bitcoin investment plan.If only we could make all newbs stick to it until they gain full age and responsibility on bitcoin issues.
464.
Post 3698030 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
btw ch0000000000000000 ch0000000000000000000 mfs!!!!!!!!!
How much all in do you need to be in order to legitimately use this?
465.
Post 3700074 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Zang (and others), what links would you suggest:
how to explain Bitcoin to treasurers of a trust which has just received a hefty donation in bitcoins, with a stipulation that they cannot be sold at will, rather according to The Plan
466.
Post 3700723 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
I don't think $800 is cheap.
467.
Post 3700742 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
The dump will intensify as we hit $700. People have had a few days to think that $700 is quite a good price to have for the excess coins.
468.
Post 3700876 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
The dump will intensify as we hit $700. People have had a few days to think that $700 is quite a good price to have for the excess coins.
/
So, where do I set first buy when I go to sleep in a couple of hours?
Think of the
value.
If you value bitcoin more than other things, just buy now. If you would
like to have more coins but don't
mind having some other things as well, select a suitable buyback price.
My buying range is $300-$500 but obviously I haven't set the bids yet because it would look bullish on charts.
(I disregard sarcasm and seize the opportunity to teach
)
469.
Post 3705232 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
The technical picture is deteriorating. I'm with reptilia on this one: buy cheaper coins in about 1-2 days.
Has bitcoin
ever rallied to an all-time high and then stabilized right near the top for a few days, and only then crashed significantly lower? That has never been the pattern before. I think the fact that we're consolidating just under the ATH is bullish for another surge to the upside within 1-2 days.
It's exactly like that.
What happened after
this?
470.
Post 3705754 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
If it stays this way, it will show in charts as a record +90% week, so hardly a crash
471.
Post 3706184 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"
Exactly that.
Don't you think they read my writings..?
472.
Post 3706567 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Yes, this warning is good for bitcoin and for the chinese. It's maybe short term bearish. I didn't witness the mania in China and the public concerned by this mania so I cannot judge.
It
crossed Y1,000 in Oct 19, and (almost) hit Y7,000 in Nov 19.
+600% in one month, followed by a -50% initial reaction and now struggling to consolidate high in 5,000s.
So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.
Now
this reeks of desperation. I
feel (
)that in the end the bears are right after all. They can sit on both the fiat gains and the bitcoin gains, whereas the bulls will rush to the exits when we go south because their portfolio is all-in and it is consuming them.
It takes roughly the same amount of new money entering in, to raise the price from $200 to $800 than it takes from $800 to $1400. In the October runup, we had undervalued starting point, stellar news and China mania. For December, we have "to the moon" from people who have no fiat in their bank account that could possibly lift it to(wards) the moon, short-term overvaluation, and an overhang of pending sales from rational investors who diversify as price rises.
You dream of exponential new money flowing in. Yeah, long term you are right. Just hold onto your coins while we dig deeper
473.
Post 3706726 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Well it's undeniable that this is the first Monday that China has stopped pumping.
China is still 6.5% higher than west. At that rate there is some but not much flow. I expect it to close totally this week, which means that China demand no more supports western orderbooks. Then we'll see how much new western money can influence the price.
We need
5 times more sustained fiat inflow, to go on from here, compared to 2 months ago. The exponential trend shows that, on average, the money inflow grows
only 50% in that period of time.
474.
Post 3706796 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
I'm not here rambling to maximize my profit (like you are). I'm gandhi.
Haha, fail. Gandhi would never pay attention to ramblers.
475.
Post 3707179 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Move to BTCChina if it's just for trading then. 0% fee's. You can trade in and out at 50cents if it makes you feel comfortable.
Great thanks, didn´t know that. But as I can see, the price on BTCChina is mostly pretty constant.
Liquidity results in stable prices.
476.
Post 3707257 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
477.
Post 3708187 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
It's back.
Last 24h price: down
-3.8%.
It will break up
any moment, where "any" is defined that 5x the money is needed compared to any previous breakout in Bitcoinhistory.
Still waiting
478.
Post 3708647 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
There is also a chance that the holder of 2.5k wall at 900 buys it from himself and causes an euphoria
Big holders have no use for euphoria atm, small users don't have
BTC2,500. End of story.
But the tactic is in the book
479.
Post 3711649 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
The red dragon is really falling. Not sure if the crash will come or not. Everybody is waiting for a price dump and as soon as it goes under 800 everybody buys coins like wild. I´m not sure anymore if we will easily go through the 1000$ because it looks not attractive to trade 1000 to get 1.
Trust me I won't buy like crazy just under 800...People forget that one week ago it dropped in the 400s and 1 month ago it was in the low 200s.
The sad truth is that there is no "buying like crazy" going on. If it continues to fall, a rout is much more probable than a buying frenzy.
China is falling, with lots of coins listed for sale and no corresponding buyers.
480.
Post 3711876 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
The red dragon is really falling. Not sure if the crash will come or not. Everybody is waiting for a price dump and as soon as it goes under 800 everybody buys coins like wild. I´m not sure anymore if we will easily go through the 1000$ because it looks not attractive to trade 1000 to get 1.
Trust me I won't buy like crazy just under 800...People forget that one week ago it dropped in the 400s and 1 month ago it was in the low 200s.
The sad truth is that there is no "buying like crazy" going on. If it continues to fall, a rout is much more probable than a buying frenzy.
China is falling, with lots of coins listed for sale and no corresponding buyers.
Bear in mind that China is currently sitting about 4% higher than Mt Gox and Bitstamp. It could level out once this level is reached
My point exactly. As China is no more buying our coins, who is left to raise the price?
481.
Post 3711908 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
I already put payment down for a 458. You should get Lambo and we can do a trip together
I want a castle. For christmas present.
482.
Post 3717902 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
Quoting in context:
If we go crazy from here (we are already well above/ahead of the long-term trend), the inevitable result is crash. That is the way turbulence works. This makes it relevant to try to estimate the top and the bottom.
My take:
- Top $2200, bottom $475. Before Christmas.
I was following your posts, there is
always a crash in your post,
each day you post the same prediction,
Man, Bitcoin distorts your sense of time beyond remedy...
My
first bearish post was this:
I have also increased the odds that we are in a bubble correction to about 75%. That said, I expect the following things happen:
- Lowest recorded trade will be in $2XX range, bigger volume around $300.
- It will take only 3-6 months to regain the old highs.
- Volume will all the time be lower than in previous situations, there is no widespread panic or general capitulation
Two bubbles in 2013
Who could have thought...
Beating the yesterday's intraday high (BS: $640, Gox: $750, BTCC: $1000) makes me increase the odds that this is just a weekly consolidation. Every day in declining trend erodes the new investor confidence and induces more and more sales from the earlier investor community.
Check the timestamp - it is 43 hours ago. Not even 2 days!
I previously was a bear for less than 2 days when the April bubble initially popped (correctly), then a short time at $48 last March (failed), a little bearish before the final capitulation in June (correctly), and during all of the bear market in 2011 (correctly, with stellar results). Even if this one proves to be false, I still have 60% track record. (52% is enough to make money, needless to say that the majority is not even close).
Even if I am wrong on this one, I will admit it latest next Monday. This leaves maximum about 10 days (out of 1000) that I have been a bitcoin bear with no reason. 1% of the time.
Bear with it.. Henry Brade (Technomage) was right, I was wrong. We had a FB debate last week.
I still think that $2200 by Christmas and crash afterwards is a possible and probable scenario. My analysis says that
each crash low is 2x the pre-bubble ATH.
So the essential content of that post still holds, and I am not about to deny that one.
I give better odds that we see my sale price of $672 that that we don't see it.
483.
Post 3718636 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
Old coins on the move. Why is it troubling? Of course they rather sell high than low.
484.
Post 3718704 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
some large buyings at bitstamp, but still pretty walled by that 1500 btc guy
as long as he remains sitting there, bitstamp won't follow gox
whales creating arb lol
You know, we kind of decided that $900 is the cap for now.
485.
Post 3718986 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
Its not an insult, you guys need to research about this reptile dude b4 even bother reading his post. He was a laughing stock. Then he admitted that he needed help and checked into rehab. None of that is an insult. I'm shocked seeing him back and the same old "i'm loaded, i'm dumping coins" BS.
If you check back to my posts last spring, they did indeed generate more angry responses. So I decided to back away from the forum until they would be better received. IMO this is what's happening just now - all of my threads are receiving spontaneous kudos from newcomers especially.
486.
Post 3719064 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
Its not an insult, you guys need to research about this reptile dude b4 even bother reading his post. He was a laughing stock. Then he admitted that he needed help and checked into rehab. None of that is an insult. I'm shocked seeing him back and the same old "i'm loaded, i'm dumping coins" BS.
If you check back to my posts last spring, they did indeed generate more angry responses. So I decided to back away from the forum until they would be better received. IMO this is what's happening just now - all of my threads are receiving spontaneous kudos from newcomers especially.
Good for you. Just stop with supernode and whales crap and you'll be fine.
Lol, one cannot deny his destiny: Once I get my hands on the 8-figure amount of CNY that is sitting in my trading account, I buy a 1600s palace with a 14-acre garden.
Beat that dude!
(With this rate of value appreciation, you can easily in 1-2 years)
487.
Post 3720188 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
But also the sentiment that maybe you can be right with your price prediction helps.
I was the greatest beneficiary of my own predictions. The sentiment in May was so bad that I took it as proof that we cannot go down much more, and bought with both hands. Now with todamoon and everybody liking me, I am much more wary short term.
488.
Post 3720771 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
Tuesday is a prime day of the week.
489.
Post 3722001 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
New money still uses Gox because it has historically been the most reliable and trustworthy exchange. Big money gives zero fucks about Goxbucks, they just want fresh and juicy coins.
You could be right, but considering that other exchanges are not moving, and there is a large overhang of goxbux from people who cashed out last week, I think the action in Gox is mainly their money transfer. Gox is higher than China atm!
More consolidation ahead...
490.
Post 3722546 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
China isn't moving because the Chinese are asleep.
China is down -5.7% over 3 days.
Also the arbitrage is closed, which means that west will have to raise the price to $1,000 by themselves.
We are also more than 2x ahead of the long-term trend, which is a very extended position.
Bid/ask charts are quite tilted towards the latter. Especially noteworthy is the lack of bids $700+
Volume is low.
Ch00000000000000........EDIT: the last one is pronounced: "irrational exuberance is running rampant in the forum, expecting price to rise based on previous rise"
491.
Post 3722698 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
Especially noteworthy is the lack of bids $700+
What do you mean by lack of bids? I see what looks like a healthy cumulative slope of bids $700+
In Bidstamp it's half the depth to $700 vs. to $1,000. But admittedly in Gox not. Did not check that.
492.
Post 3722813 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
explained above. 1/6 you misunderstood, 5/6 stand unrefuted.
493.
Post 3722978 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
The fact that a simultaneous buying takes place in gox and selling in stamp is so hilarious.
Soon you will say that it is
bullish that a large holder of goxbux wants out!
China: "yawn"
494.
Post 3723679 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
I just can't shake the feeling that there's one more good thrust left in this run.
I would rather explain this by goxbux cashout. Other exchanges are not following the widening bid/ask spread
at all.
495.
Post 3723756 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
There is really no explanation needed. Market wants up.
Why don't you buy some then? No one with actual money is on the buy side, that is why market is not
going up despite your wish.
496.
Post 3724651 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
...but if the above was to come true, wouldnt you be worried about the power some of these people hold?
Everybody has power to his own coins, exactly as it should be.
497.
Post 3726294 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
Pretty mind blowing stuff. That real-life stories are a good example of how you play this game: you invest what you can afford to lose, and you go for the long run, holding to the majority of your coins. The potential and growth are so huge that by gradually cashing out you can live OK while holding to the vast majority of your coins.
I have developed the concept of "rake", which in this context means the (average) percent of your holdings that you sell, every time the price doubles. This is applicable in the situation where you are unloading the coins. If you are still accumulating, it naturally does not hold.
According to the virgin-money-flow-model, the average rake is 17%, which means that each 1000x increase (consisting of 10 succeeding doublings) dilutes your holdings by 84%, formula: 1-(1-17%)^10.
If you want to play tigher, choose 10% rake for 65% dilution.
If you are OK to play looser, 30% rake dilutes 97% of your coins away, but the remaining 3% are still worth 30x more than all the coins in the beginning.
More about it.
498.
Post 3726594 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
I have to say that my "exit" strategy is very similar to your "rake" concept. It worked well so far, I still have the vast majority of my coins but I will live quite better in 2014.
I don't like "exit" because we are
entering Bitcoin and
exiting the fiat world. We are just
raking the pot to live more comfortably.
499.
Post 3733206 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
Perhaps he just needs to sell. Stamps liquidity is so friggin anemic that I just quit today's selling plan without selling any coins. I am not the only one willing to sell at these prices.
500.
Post 3733552 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
Perhaps he just needs to sell. Stamps liquidity is so friggin anemic that I just quit today's selling plan without selling any coins. I am not the only one willing to sell at these prices.
The selling plan you have outlined numerous times on this forum, doesn't include selling at Bitstamp at $925.
That was the buying plan, lol.
When have I denied that I work for several different companies, managing their (and even their customers') accounts?
Congrats for getting out of ignore
501.
Post 3736831 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
If that site is any indicator at all, then... Chinese are waking up.
No. The coins are flowing from China to west right now. Check the prices. Coins flow from cheap places to the expensive ones.
502.
Post 3738717 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
The stupidity was not making a backup.
You know there have to be more than a few wallets full of BTC sitting on hard-drives on computers in second-hand stores and pawn shops. I look forward to hearing some interesting stories.
A friend lost a relative recently who got on the btc bandwagon in 2010, the guys widow doesn't even know what bitcoin is. He died Saturday night, friends been trying to decide how to approach the wife about recovering them for her. I imagine lot's of these types of stories will come out over the following years!
Tell him to do it soon. People act hastily in grief. She may give the computer to a nephew or something.
One of our Partners had been in Bitcoin since late 2012. He died unexpectedly early 2013, and we suggested the widow certain measures of Bitcoin recovery. She refused, saying, that despite she had heard him constantly talking about it, it is unlikely that he had any or that it would matter.
503.
Post 3738775 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
Fiat leaks slowing EVEN MORE money coming in 10,000 BTC an hour in money coming in.
It hit close on 7000 just before the 1000 mark and it's accelerating.
There will be no pulling back you, we will seriously overshoot 1000 IMO
hah!
For every coming in, there is as much going out.
504.
Post 3749048 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
Looks like BTC China is back over the equivalent of $1000 again.
What's more, the spread is rising. Yesterday it was negative, now we are back in 4-7% territory.
505.
Post 3751428 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
Humans are a strange sort.
Barely buying all the way up to $1000. Then plowing through a 2500 wall in minutes once they are there. WTF?
obv 4 the lulz
Part of it was for the lulz sure, but another part was arbitrage with BTC China:
- China had gotten ahead because ppl there were betting that the stamp wall would fall resulting in a rally.
- Erect supporting bid walls everywhere
- Buy at a fixed price from the wall and feed china 7% higher.
- When the wall fell, china got its final spurt, which was duly capped with a market order.
- If net position was still +coins, the rest were dumped in stamp, capping that rally also.
Another day in bitcoinland. Now things are quiet again
506.
Post 3751767 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
After coming public with my fiat millions, I have been interviewed in radio and tomorrow is one magazine etc. I hope that others will soon join me as the spokespeople
If the reporter raises the bubble issue, I just quote sirius:
"When bitcoin had less than 10 users, I sold
BTC5,000 for $5."
Now it is a million times more valuable. So is userbase a million times larger.
It is simple math that a further 1000-folding of userbase will raise the price approximately 1000 times higher from here.
If you believe bitcoin's growth will stall and go negative or the technology crashes, then it is a bubble. Otherwise it can hardly be a bubble.
507.
Post 3763591 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
There is also the chance they bought their own walls to induce momentum.
Anyone with more bitcoins than 1,000 is
cautious of the rise, and
scheming to keep the price
in check to solidify their own position in the real world. (Anyone with <1,000 coins does not have walls)
508.
Post 3764139 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
They will probably come for bitcoin soon but manipulation will be much more difficult. They could buy lots of coins creating a spike and then dumping everything recklessly and crashing it, but I am not sure of their success.
I am quite sure. It will be an utter failure, mostly for the reason that bitcoin would become public to all, and no matter how much short term damage they can cause, it will not be able to be kept down for long because its real network value is 1000x the exchange value. Only way they could wreak some havoc is by buying all the way to up, I mean 10,000x the current price, and then dumping it to the masses. But even that would be a win to Bitcoin. Everybody would use it from that on, and people who trusted in banks would have been made poor, and the independent thinkers enriched.
509.
Post 3764425 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
Wow, that was a fast ignore. Generally I ignore only after 30 days in the forum but this was an exception.
510.
Post 3777643 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
511.
Post 3778330 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
Dude, enough, just man-up and accept the hit when you buy back in, some you win, some you lose.
OK, finally I got it. Everybody is just envious because I have $millions and they don't, and I did it in the very coordinated way that never risked the majority of the position, in fact at current prices the remainder of the position is already worth more than the whole of it before divestment.
When you cannot argue against operational excellence, you whine. No whiners will be invited to the inauguration ceremony of my castle, however.
Sorry to be so blunt about it but this seems to be the only realistic explanation for the whinery, am I not right?
512.
Post 3780616 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
A certain regular contributor to here has two 'attack threads' about him set up - WTF?!
I think it's the last phase before: "...then you win". Oh well
513.
Post 3783122 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
We also saw this in a big way a few weeks ago when US and Europe "caught" the Chinese bubble pop.
All exchanges did a full -50% from their respective peaks, so with a more trading mindset, it certainly was a tradable flashcrash
I would not say that bitcoin overvaluation is a regional trend. If it goes to $2k-$4k before Christmas (
it is on due course to do just that), it will almost certainly crash due to sheer overextension, universally.
514.
Post 3786226 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
When the crash comes, I think not many in the forum is buying. After going to $2k and crashing to $1k, would you really buy? Everybody is shitless by then. It is completely at the mercy of the new money then.
515.
Post 3790610 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
Why are we assuming that this was a whale and not simply sell pressure that was unsupported by buying action since the fiat system is closed down for the weekend?
Can't you just believe that people are coming in droves? One such came in last month. Now everybody is waiting, counting their coins. If no drove comes, everybody sells, newcomers and old ones alike.
I know the magnitude of droves grows on average 1140% per year. It's a lot, but you cannot draw the conclusion that each month the USD flow is bigger than last month. Because it isn't.
516.
Post 3790901 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
People who have been holding for months and are used to $140/BTC as a "fair price" are probably going to think $1100 a coin is ludicrous when we first arrive at that price. This may induce selling.
If strong support materializes and we stay above $1000, long-term impressions change and long-term holders may re-evaluate their concept of a fair price.
I believe sell pressure is strongest during the hike up. Even if cashflow in begins to taper I expect we can stay in this price range.
Of course, cash in naturally drops during the weekend and we see minor selloffs.
Thank you.
In my understanding, people sell in the early stages of the rally (supported by the bitstamp data). Then the ascent of the rally goes steeper, as people who had selling pressure have already sold. February was a great selling month
Now there should be selling, because the price is objectively high, but many delay the selling until bubble has popped, steepening the decline.
My analysis draws quite much from the early 2013. If instead 2010-2011 would be used, the ascents are more violent, crashes faster, and the plateaus between ascents happen near the ATH. That was characterized by a relentless influx of new money. It is possible that we are entering in the same kind of phase now, but if that happens, everybody is just so rich anyway that I rather hedge my bets and do comfortably in both scenarios.
517.
Post 3793102 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
China is bleeding.
518.
Post 3793155 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
China is bleeding.
Is that you in the picture?
Yes.
Bitstamp is bleeding.
519.
Post 3793354 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
Bitstamp <900
520.
Post 3793416 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
Walls observed.
521.
Post 3793503 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
Now THIS is fun.
522.
Post 3803596 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
We could not take it down any more (-30% was not enough). I think that the odds for an immediate crash have greatly diminished.
Now it is sideways from here, or up (with the possibility of crash from higher levels).
Turned bull. Ugh.
523.
Post 3804088 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
We could not take it down any more (-30% was not enough). I think that the odds for an immediate crash have greatly diminished.
Now it is sideways from here, or up (with the possibility of crash from higher levels).
Turned bull. Ugh.
Have you been trying to induce a crash?
Well,
induce is a strong word. I was just - umm - thinking that it would be good for Bitcoin to have a smaller crash from lower levels, compared to a deep one from high. In addition my own position was aligned to profit a little. Then the time seemed right, and indeed there was some action. I could several times sell at the local top and buy back at near bottom. Not to profit on anyone's expense, of course! Far be that from me.
Everyone benefits when the bubble is pricked every so often. "Prick", how did that come to my mind. Ahem...
The
operation wishful and feeling-based daytrading ended up making a small gain only, since the buyback target was not reached, it was only a swing here and there and mainly everything was hedged from China anyway since they did not crash much at all. In another thread I said that I made only
BTC15, but that is probably a gross understatement like almost everything I say. Mommy told that you should not disclose your true wealth and power (funny to say that to a 5-year old). I have sticked to the advice, although it constantly angers me that teenagers piss on my shoes. When I was a teenager, everyone else in BBS's was max 20 also, so it was more equal. One guy had 18" loudspeakers, he was my idol. But he was 28 and prolly had a job.
EDIT: Or a rich dad. I never asked. Those days we had a
respect towards wealthy people. Or maybe I was just shy to approach him...
524.
Post 3811289 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
Look at Proudhorn. He got song and he started posting here again. A legend. He will be in economics books.
He is already.
525.
Post 3812647 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
& BTC-e is just a matter of time before it gets shut down. They service US customers, so there is the feds main reason to shut it down.
Is it customary that all non-US customers also lose all their funds? I am not knowledgeable of the topic.
526.
Post 3819612 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
I think it's time to switch to uBTC
I've been wondering whether satoshi actually makes most sense to most of the people in the world. Make the transaction once and for all.
Interesting observation is that 1 lakh satoshi = 1 m
BTC1 bitcoin is already well known and will continue to be the unit of account of the rich.
For those aiming to get by, 1 satoshi will be worth about $0.01-$0.10 soon, and is a very practical unit, as well as the multiples k and M. No need to deal with decimals.
527.
Post 3832681 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
Bitstamp under $1000 now. Lame
Hardly. Good chance to nab another couple coins.
Looks like China's ticker is still bleeding red
Bitcoinity for china is lagging, actual bottom 4750, now 4900 ($803)
528.
Post 3834161 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
Ok sheep-boy, this drop hasn't even started yet, the ramifications of this will lower the price for weeks to come. Bitcoin could essentially loose 50% of its customer base if China cracks down on it.
A) No
crack-down happening, so the factual content of the news is not negative, even to the opposite.
B) Changes in customer base and esp. the number of coins do not happen
so fast.
C) I think the support in $800 held very well, and am not too concerned about it being broken when the pigs wake up and decide to cash out their coins in the following hours. The midterm you don't ever know about the Chinese - a bear market there will put a dampener to growth here (as selling pressure makes spread go negative and coins flow back to the west, dampening any rally attempt).
D) December trendtarget is only at $400 so it is entirely possible to retrace all the way there. It just does not feel like that to me now.
E) The situation is both a good time to sell for those who have contemplated selling + a good time to buy for those who are adding up. Let the trades continue!
529.
Post 3834209 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
How much was dumped?
aprox: 30k on Gox, 27k on Stamp, 50k on BTChina
just around $100MM only on those three exchanges
...pigs getting slaughtered
So whales saw the chance in news to cause panic and pushed the price a little bit and put bids to catch cheap coins?
That would be a gamble. Making a positive news feel negative by manipulated first reaction and then
hope that there'll be a stampede. Very well executed if true. Besides in China you really have to have the coins to cause anything like that. Other excahnges followed like sheep...
530.
Post 3834814 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
Dude stop reading what some bull manipulates the news to say as fact. It's bad news full stop. China's banning financial institutions from handling bitcoin transactions, if you see that as good news for Chinese exchanges or for bitcoin in China alone, your deluded.
Is your perspective now the following hours, days, weeks or months?
"Bad news for Bitcoin" as a generalization does not exist, because nothing can stop Bitcoin. It is just a question of the way.
Pls elaborate.
531.
Post 3838544 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
The
BTC5k that Sirius sold in January 2009 is also $5 million dollars now. And the
BTC5k that I bought in 2011 is now $5M.
Cheers!
532.
Post 3838558 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
Oh noes.... EVERY BTC5k in the world is now valued at $5 MILLION!
(the adventures of a guy ... series)
533.
Post 3840453 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
China/Bitstamp spread has been negative (China lower) ever since the flashcrash 12 hours ago. So the west has absorbed:
- 71% of the losses (from 1.13->0.85->1.05);
- quite a number of bitcoins sent from China.
It is not usual to have China seriously lower. Usually it's either at about even or higher.
I see the news as neutral/bullish, and this reaction quite convincing. $800 will firmly hold.
534.
Post 3841247 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
sorry bears bubbles don't pop on record volume.
Well not that I'm bearish but...
That's not a popped bubble, that's lunch.
I would really really buy at any of the prices mentioned in that chart
535.
Post 3847976 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
The daily charts look horrible - EMA violated, MACD down, parabolic sar flipped, RSI below 70. But it looks like perhaps we're still being supported by "choo choo mofo" trendline we've had since day 1 of ATH break. I wonder if this trendline could slowly drive us to ATH? This would probably be the last breakout since that trend would be moving too slow to keep up with any significant higher levels.
Technical people have done absolutely horribly in the past in this forum. I don't know of
anyone who has made more bitcoins compared to buy&hold over any extended period of time (even 12 months, which does not prove anything really).
Yes - I mean it: I don't know any technical trader who has not lost money, meaning that all his effort has been in vain and harmful, compared to one who just holds.
536.
Post 3848094 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
The daily charts look horrible - EMA violated, MACD down, parabolic sar flipped, RSI below 70. But it looks like perhaps we're still being supported by "choo choo mofo" trendline we've had since day 1 of ATH break. I wonder if this trendline could slowly drive us to ATH? This would probably be the last breakout since that trend would be moving too slow to keep up with any significant higher levels.
Technical people have done absolutely horribly in the past in this forum. I don't know of
anyone who has made more bitcoins compared to buy&hold over any extended period of time (even 12 months, which does not prove anything really).
Yes - I mean it: I don't know any technical trader who has not lost money, meaning that all his effort has been in vain and harmful, compared to one who just holds.If I did buy and hold I'd still have 7 BTC. I didn't, I traded like there's no tomorrow (alts vs btc mainly) and
if everything goes as planned I'd probably own 300-400 BTC some time Q1 2014. 200 almost guaranteed if I'd be live at that time.
It had nothing with TA though. Making money on alt pumps and dumps has heck all with TA, it's much easier than that.
Calculating future returns based on past successes of pump and dump schemes... Never seen such delusion in my life!
Throw this to my face when you make your
BTC300-400.
537.
Post 3848179 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
But let's forget that part for the moment - if I'd buy and hold I'd still have 7 BTC, I didn't, I traded as there's no tomorrow and currently have some 150 BTC.
You see, the point is exactly the same. Buy and hold bullshit could be said only by deluded idiots who bought at single digits or around and assume those that buy at 1200$ are at same position as them.
Of course the nowcomers are 2-3 orders of magnitude behind, but still very well off compared to the ones coming when it's $100/m
BTC, and also they have more than the ones who only buy at "2 month's work"/m
BTC. Striving to attain the next level in the log chart of bitcoin holdings is very difficult and I am sad that smart people do scams and pump and dumps instead of being satisfied with what they have and living in peace.
Reason I am saying this is that 0.01% of people professionally work as brokers. For all of the rest, it represents a significant diversion of effort from more important things in their life to following the USDBTC rate from a screen, not exactly an improvement in living standards. Furthermore, as a result of this effort, everyone (or perhaps a number tending to 99.9% when duration tends to infinity) loses money.
538.
Post 3848247 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
I don't give a shit about owning 5 or 10 bitcoins. I'll have hundreds of them or none.
So you don't
"give a shit" to be among 10,000-30,000 world's richest. Top 100 or top 300 is the way to go. Yes, you seem to be a megalomaniac and a player. I think I could easily adapt to any of the levels, as could most of us.
* top 30 would have BTC5,000 or more (100 billion USD)
* top 300 would have BTC500 or more (10 billion USD)
* top 3,000 would have BTC50 or more (1 billion USD)
* the top 29,000 people would have 5,000mBTC or more, a huge fortune comparable to 100 million of today's dollars.
* the top 1 million people would have 500mBTC or more, corresponding to 10 million or more dollars
* 29 million people have at least 50mBTC, which puts them among the most affluent 0.6%, previously called 'millionaires'
* the upper middle class of 350 million people worldwide, owns 5mBTC or more
* lower middle class consists of 1 billion people is characterized by ownership of 0.5mBTC or more
* the lower class of (3+ billion) owns less than 0.5mBTC including people who don't have any or have negative worth.
539.
Post 3848754 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
I don't give a shit about owning 5 or 10 bitcoins. I'll have hundreds of them or none.
So you don't
"give a shit" to be among 10,000-30,000 world's richest. Top 100 or top 300 is the way to go. Yes, you seem to be a megalomaniac and a player. I think I could easily adapt to any of the levels, as could most of us.
* top 30 would have BTC5,000 or more (100 billion USD)
* top 300 would have BTC500 or more (10 billion USD)
* top 3,000 would have BTC50 or more (1 billion USD)
* the top 29,000 people would have 5,000mBTC or more, a huge fortune comparable to 100 million of today's dollars.
* the top 1 million people would have 500mBTC or more, corresponding to 10 million or more dollars
* 29 million people have at least 50mBTC, which puts them among the most affluent 0.6%, previously called 'millionaires'
* the upper middle class of 350 million people worldwide, owns 5mBTC or more
* lower middle class consists of 1 billion people is characterized by ownership of 0.5mBTC or more
* the lower class of (3+ billion) owns less than 0.5mBTC including people who don't have any or have negative worth.
I like your way of breaking it down.
I have been advocating to new comers to strive to attain the Bitcoin Millionth Club. Basically you need to own 21 btc, this will make you 1 in a million people on the earth who could possibly own 1 million of all future available bitcoins. Obviously we know the numbers will be massively different due to mining time and bitcoin loss over the years, but its an attainable number and would offer massive wealth in the future. Imagine you owned 1 millionth of several of the worlds largest countries currency? Happy days!
Although being a bull myself. I still don't think this kind of analysis makes sense. It's only meaningful if BTC is the only wealth in the world. Otherwise, it may help you to be rich, but these kind of ranking does not make sense. Bill Gates may have 0 BTC, but billions of fiats or microsoft shares. Kings in the middle east may have no BTC but have plenty of oil.
Don't read it any deeper than what it is:
The distribution of bitcoins, if they are distributed in the same way as total wealth of the world is distributed.To have the whole picture, we need to know, what % of the total wealth bitcoins represent. A quite long-shot would be that bitcoins are half the world's wealth, ie. valued the same as the Earth. Then you need to sell half of your bitcoins to obtain "your share" of the other wealth.
All in all, I think most that have
BTC10,000 now, will only have about
BTC1,000-
BTC3,000 when it hits the highest value.
540.
Post 3848784 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
Discovering margin trading helped a lot too. I don't even really have to sell or think about when to sell my core position. I just wait for any kind of a sharp drop and then as soon as high volume support starts kicking in I buy a huge margin position using my btc as collateral. Then as soon as the immediate bounce is over I close the position, take the ~15% profit, and buy more bitcoins to add to my core position. I might not be getting the most profit on the margin position possible but it covers my ass both in event of an uptrend or a downtrend. It's kind of a compromise between buy and hold, since I'm never actually selling any 'real' bitcoins.
You need to earn 15% profit in a row for 40 times to get 25000%. That's really amazing.
How many flash crashes do we have since April?
Are you saying you smell bullshit? is that what your saying?
It is quite commendable, considering that a 1990s long-term pro trader like me could only increase the size of total stash by about 3% in the April big crash and 0.6% in the last weekend dip, among others.
541.
Post 3856440 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.33h):
so 850 is the new floor imo.
We saw total panic tonight and yet once we approached 850 buyers started perking up.
LOL approached 850?
Don't you mean after we got spat out of a gox failsafe loop for an hour which blocked any trading below $829? It's worth noting ever other exchange sat frozen for half an hour waiting for gox to take the lead again before making any moves back up.
poeple were trading........
It completely killed the momentum of the dip, who knows where gox would have stopped, it was certainly headed for 700.
but the deeper it falls the harder its bounces back.
stop thinking of what could have been.
How many times does Bitstamp need to bounce from 0.800 before people realize it's the new floor?
Every bounce (3 so far) adds to the strength of the support, and it is already in the Titanium level, comparable to molecular's left nut.
Buying at 0.800 is better EV than buying at 1.000. From 1 it can go either way, but from 0.800 it always goes up, and the 10% probability not included in "always" is only that it will dip to 0.6 for a few hours. Nothing to be scared of.
542.
Post 3856644 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.33h):
Hahaha, do you really think "multi billionaires" buy in Gox just like regular folks ??
This is to the Multi Billionaires that sometimes read the forum:Haha. Multi Billionaires know that they can come to me to buy. Terms of trade similar as with PM trade. But please do not make it sound like there is something criminal going on in your end. I have lost many good deals because I also have rational evaluation of my customers. It is quite normal to buy bitcoins from my Estonian dealership, so please be instructed that the minimum is at least
BTC20 and premium over the cheapest exchange 10% or more. Price can be locked in immediately upon receipt of the deposit.
543.
Post 3857323 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.33h):
One thing I never wrote here, didn't want to spread bad news...
Last Saturday guy on McxNow chat wrote that he got SMS from his best friend who knew he is into Bitcoins. He told him he is sitting with some Chicago Wall Street guy and he mentioned him Bitcoin and that his friend is into it. Wall Street guy told him to contact him and say to get out of Bitcoin as soon as possible as on Monday some guys are going to start betting against Bitcoin shorting it.
It looked fishy at the moment and even that guy from McxNow didn't pay lot of attention to it based on what he was saying but less than 24 hours after first flash crash happened and we were on top of bullish sentiments at that point.
Hahhaha, welcome to Wall street. What a joke
If that is true, it shows that there
IS indeed a limit to stupidity and that can be found on Wall Street. Shorting bitcoin.
LOL
544.
Post 3857416 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.33h):
Here's the deal. Everyone can post whatever TA they have. That's great. TA works. I like it.
But if we are going down and it looks like we are, the only thing that really matters is how much $$$ has entered the market that won't be coming out. That's the bottom.
Category A
All the $$$ that can leave the market is from either
A. Speculators
B. Former believers who are now non-believers.
Category B
All the $$$ that is staying in the market
A. Second Market
B. Long Term Investors (including the VC community)
C. Believers
In 2011, the reason we went from $32 to BELOW the previous runup was SIMPLY that we didn't have more of Category B. In April 2013, the reason we never tested below the point that the rally started AND the reason we didn't test $50 again was we had more of Category B.
So how much of Category B do we have now?
A lot more I believe. Second Market has put tens of millions into the market. We have had an on rush of new bitcoin fanatics like never before. And more VC money has gone into and around the market.
So what's the absolute bottom of where we could potentially go? $700? $500? $400? I don't know.
Although I strongly believe that we will not go down near where we started ($200).
I figure $350 could be absolute bottom, but I do not think we go that low.
I think we probably have enough $$$ in the market that is staying in the market to stay above $500.
However, this is a TOTAL GUESS. As is anyone's at this point.
+1.
But why feel bad? I made like 22,000m
BTC trading today. It is not much, but a decent daytrade with little risk. It is not 15,000% of my stash compounded over 4 months like some here seem to have made. But it's something. And I have more fiat and more bitcoins than 12 hours ago. That feels good.
545.
Post 3857584 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.33h):
But why feel bad? I made like 22,000mBTC trading today. It is not much, but a decent daytrade with little risk. It is not 15,000% of my stash compounded over 4 months like some here seem to have made. But it's something. And I have more fiat and more bitcoins than 12 hours ago. That feels good.
Oh really, and what about buy & hold, pump & dump scams etc..
Scams are despicable. Buy and hold is the right way to do it for 99% of people.
It is even conceivable that I could have done better with SSS plan myself, that would have saved me from selling in September which was a pretty stupid thing to do.
546.
Post 3857762 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.33h):
OK, now be a buddy and sell some of your coins, I need price bit down to rebuy some
If it breaks 0.800, which I have claimed to be support, I will go full retard mode with automatic rebuy all the way to zero. According to this mathematical formula, I will own just short of 14M bitcoins when the price hits 0.00001.
... sometimes it's handy to have some fiat in exchanges
547.
Post 3857817 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.33h):
OK, now be a buddy and sell some of your coins, I need price bit down to rebuy some
, which I have claimed to be support, I will go full retard mode with automatic rebuy all the way to zero. According to this mathematical formula, I will own just short of 14M bitcoins when the price hits 0.00001.
... sometimes it's handy to have some fiat in exchanges
are you talking about stamp?
Yes.
548.
Post 3857857 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.33h):
In that case. Go full retard Risto, go full retard.
Busy doing.
549.
Post 3857887 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.33h):
In that case. Go full retard Risto, go full retard.
Busy doing.
Actually it seems to be holding for the 4th time!
550.
Post 3865239 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.34h):
Awww DAT VOLUME!!!
Market Last Volume (24h)
btcnCNY 5100.0000 148,000.46
btceUSD 803.0000 120,454.28
mtgoxUSD 850.0000 115,416.47
bitstampUSD 788.3700 102,612.91
Wow! Not even 1 Million coins.
Woah.. I guess a lot of that volume is just the same couple of K coins switching hands though.
My share of the world's trading volume: 0.53%.
No wonder they want to conduct an additional KYC check in Bitstamp
Why would they just not read this forum
551.
Post 3865463 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.34h):
False support at 800 will drop once order book fills above it, and bag holders get lunch money suckerpunched?
edit: I mean, that's how I'd do it.
800 is now resistance. See the rest of my updated ramblings starting
here.
552.
Post 3865547 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.34h):
False support at 800 will drop once order book fills above it, and bag holders get lunch money suckerpunched?
edit: I mean, that's how I'd do it.
Its amazing to see how walls pop up in a 'manipulative harmony' to try and get support. And pulled when they start to get eaten( like the wall at 780.1 being pulled back from 810)
It is so amazing that there are actually buttons called "Limit Order". Walls come in the desired places just by clicking them. I've been so excited after finding this feature...
553.
Post 3872082 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.34h):
We are simply returning to "pre china" numbers. Chinese are dumping hard. They controlled the huge price increase now they control the decline.
BTCChina price is more than 10% higher than other markets now.
Yeah LOL during the last hour or so dumped
BTC300 to China.. they are buying, not selling now
554.
Post 3878998 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.34h):
There is no effective means of arbitrage at this time. The reason we have seen a consolidation of price is due to the levels of support at varying prices on different exchanges. Some exchanges had enough volume to push the price higher than others. Once the price comes down, the percentage difference diminishes the observable nominal price differences. And there was also a large manipulator on Gox, I don't know about the other exchanges.
I agree with you - though if you had been using my strategy to trade the spread previously, right now (all exchanges at same price) is a great opportunity to re-normalize your positions across exchanges by buying/selling BTC and transferring BTC between exchanges. And although there is 'noe ffective means of arbitrage' NOW, I expect the spreads to widen again as soon as we hit some new volatility.
I would also expect Gox to typically maintain at a minimum 5% premium to other exchanges, because this is how much it costs to withdraw fiat via wire transfer (unless you pay for the 5% expedited withdraw method you never see your money come out of Gox). So the ucrrent zero spread is quite strange, and probably reflects a lack of selling pressure (noone is in a big hurry to get their miney out of Gox, so they're less inclined to pay the extra to buy BTC and transfer them out).
Niothor - not sure what you were trying to show by quoting that as it wasn't
rpietila talking. I agree with the
Rampion's takedown of his trading/pricing recommendations though - I'm with
Dasheep and
Rampion that he sucks at trading.
The quote that is relevant to what I was saying was:
My trading strategy is currently such that there are major fluctuations in relative prices in BTC China and Bitstamp. I chart them and analyze them and have both fiat and bitcoins in both exchanges. I sell in China (buy back BS) when it goes like 10% ahead. When it goes back to 0%, I reverse.
Trading report today 00:00 UTC+2 -> so far.
Sum trades 1590479 mBTC (about 1% of global volume during this period)
net position decrease -148160 mBTC
Gain USD 164489
Decrease in net pos. USD -115417
China credit -26737
Fees -1581
VOL USD 1147166
PROFIT USD 20754
% of volume 1.81 %
Profit in mBTC 26304
Of course the forum is full of better traders, but I would not say that this
sucks...
555.
Post 3883557 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.34h):
Breaking out of that triangle in a big way. Anyone want to place bets on recovery or bull trap?
You mean an actual bet? Yeah, sure. I feel we will go visit the exponential trendline.
556.
Post 3883875 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.34h):
Breaking out of that triangle in a big way. Anyone want to place bets on recovery or bull trap?
You mean an actual bet? Yeah, sure. I feel we will go visit the exponential trendline.
what point are we currently at on that trendline? i forget where that thread is
.
Ofc it can go higher for an extended period of time. But aren't we kind of in a bear market now?
Ending the year at $500 sounds very good to me.
557.
Post 3891233 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.34h):
In this case you are losing coins, but your wealth is better protected. It's like paying "crash insurance". And if you do this always, someday you will win big when big crash comes. This isn't as easy to do as it seems in the pic.
The most important thing in low risk trading is buying back in with loss and this could be majority of your trades. Winning trades are just so much bigger that this doesn't just lower your risk of losing wealth but it also is better for your coin stash in the long run. (maybe)
Interesting approach. Is there any way that you could make a mathematical model about it, so that we could compare vs. the SSS plan?
558.
Post 3891259 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.34h):
Epic bull trap, or we're going back above ATH.
My prediction for the rest of the week: Rise with slow volume until Wed, then choppy downtrend to 600s, making it hard to see if a certain figure is a buying of selling opportunity.
559.
Post 3892244 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.35h):
True. But his approach is still the most profitable one depending on how high you place the chance for total/near total failure of BTC. Don't tell me you're 100% sure BTC will make it?!
I would very much like to see his approach formulated in mathematical way, so that comparison to SSS could be made (the latter is a fully automatic strategy which in my opinion hedges against the total failure better, but cannot say for certain before gandhi provides the details of his)
560.
Post 3892527 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.35h):
True. But his approach is still the most profitable one depending on how high you place the chance for total/near total failure of BTC. Don't tell me you're 100% sure BTC will make it?!
I would very much like to see his approach formulated in mathematical way, so that comparison to SSS could be made (the latter is a fully automatic strategy which in my opinion hedges against the total failure better, but cannot say for certain before gandhi provides the details of his)
Not sure I know what you want to see. Expected values of the two strategies compared? I'm only half in on the details of your SSS (I get the gist, I think: regular cash outs at likely inflection points, right
), but how do you calculate EV for your theory? Based on a simple price projection over time? If so, the comparison will fail:
a) ghandibit's method is based on the non-zero possibility of a (near) total failure of BTC (if I understand him right). As in: the chance to "rescue" at least a substantial part of your fiat profits if BTC ever really really tanks. So to compare his and your method, you both need to quantify the likelihood of prices over time, not just a single 'most-likely price'.
b) more generally, his approach is still not completely spelled out: his graph shows buying back at a loss, but in his explanation he calls it "crash insurance", so the idea is probably that there are indeed conditions where you either never buy back (BTC failure), or actually manage to buy back at a btc profit (a very deep price well). So he would need to specify those conditions before it can be formally modeled and compared.
, so that you can comment on it based on knowledge what it is.
Gandhi's model looks nice, but is currently expressed in a way that leaves everything to active portfolio manager. So it is not a strategy that 99% could effectively employ, since they are not portfolio managers.
I am interested because of interest. If he can express some of the mathematical principles, I could use this on my work. Even if it'd be too difficult for the 99%
561.
Post 3894117 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.35h):
Price abruptly flatlining (I'm talking about the stability around 1100-1200) is classic bubble behavior, scaled to where April is the "first sell off". Now we are either in "back to normal" OR this time it REALLY is different! And it could be you know because Bitcoin and the global economic and political environment in which it finds itself really is different.
The gradually increasing Google trends is bullish
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q. But there are other bearish forces which I'm sure you all know.
I'm seeing busting through $1300 as the trigger for a resumption in the mania. This value will almost simultaneously crack the ATH, gold, and the recent BofA guidance.I think that the BofA number is important, even though this number was created by pulling numbers out of BofA analyst asses and then adding them together. But any veneer of math adds legitimacy in the minds of the collective investing public. If Bitcoin breaks this guidance quickly, it embarrasses the traditional analysts and says that Bitcoin defies them. And there is reason to think their analysis is flawed. It is unknown if you can use prior historical charts of centrally managed growth (a company) with decentralized growth. And if the rise takes longer than a week+, the "top" of the bubble starts to look too long for the rise as compared to classic flat-top bubbles. In that case, this could be just the "1/3 to half-way there" hiccup that is often seen on bubble graphs.
In general, you want to be IN an exponentially increasing commodity, and out for very short periods. But if there was ANY time to take some profits (or sell now to buy back much lower), I think now is probably that time. But having said that let me make it clear that I am < 10% fiat so some might say I am not following my own prescription. BTW, this is not investment advice, I am not your investment advisor, do your own thinking.
Good Shit.
+1
562.
Post 3903635 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.35h):
China and btc e falling by themselves over the last hour or so, gox barely any volume.
The fact that there
is any volume, is an indication that someone is buying. This is bullish! To the m00n, boyz!
563.
Post 3927107 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.36h):
For you or your girlfriend?
I guess she gets to ride in it regardless though! So happy for you!!
Honestly my wife bought it with her bitcoin. It is in her name.
I bought an XL 500 (not paid for with btc sadly) about 4 hours before. Was a long day.
And yes, once the Lambo gets here there will be all sorts of pics and what not. Hope to get the media on this and boost BTC. Once people know BTC can be used to buy things like Lambo's they might get a bit more interested in it.
That's the way to do it, man!
564.
Post 3928288 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.36h):
My firm analysis is that bitcoin is overvalued:
I constructed a trendline based on daily prices, and calculated through the last and current bubbles.
It is helpful to know what a logarithmic scale means. Basically it means that every 0.1 difference equals to 26% (compounding). Ten times 0.1 compounds to 1.26^10 = 10.
We express the relative undervaluation/overvaluation in logscale, where 1.0 means that the actual value is 10.0x trend and -1.0 means that it is at 0.1x the trend. That extreme valuations we did not see, though.
Spring
At the low point in 14.1., we started the rise from -0.46.
The trendline was crossed in 21.3., at 0.00 (66 days later)
The peak was reached in 9.4., at 0.45 (19 days later)
The low was reached in 7.7., at -0.30 (89 days later)
Autumn
At the low point in 3.10., we started the rise from -0.34.
The trendline was crossed in 9.11., at 0.00 (37 days later)
The peak was reached in 30.11., at 0.46 (21 days later)
The low was reached in TBD
After spending the whole week so far pretty much with these calculations, I can say that I mostly subscribe to the scenario where bitcoin's exchange rate is currently overvalued by more than 100% (0.32 in log scale). Because the overvaluation is so gross and the delusion of fair value so pervasive (I even personally "turned bull" at the ATH after making my initial bearish call in 20.11. at a lower price), it will take 1-3 months to reach the healthy low in relative valuation. It is not guaranteed that the relative low coincides with the absolute low (the cheapest intraday opportunity to buy in April was only 2 days after the bubble pop, whereas the final capitulation happened at a little bit higher level).
Because I am now so sure of this, I will seek the opportunities to trade the downtrend, sell up to 50% of my bitcoins with the intention to buy them back at the trendline, and to instruct the ones in their bitcoin accumulation phase to buy only very limited amounts when there is still air in the price.
Bitcoin is going to the moon, but it is not going to the moon overnight. I watched it go as close as possible to the moon from 0.25 to 32 and then to 2, which was my entry point. Realistically the following 6 months will not see similar development (going from 1000 to 128,000 per bitcoin, without stopping). If they do, then the other half of my bitcoins is worth so much that it gives me enough to think about.
The trendline (which I constructed anew from daily data) is now at 420, indicating that there is not much point to buy anything over 500 from the flashcrashes that will certainly continue during the following days and weeks.
If we allow 60 days of downtrend from the bubblepop (30.11.) to the final capitulation (est. 29.1.), the trendline is approximately at 590. The characteristic of a low is about -0.20...-0.30 relative valuation. To be on the safe side, we take -0.20, which corresponds to the target price of 372. To add some safety margin, the highest bids should be at 450 or so.
So now it's the time to be right and sit tight (this time with the fiat of your choice). Objectively bitcoin is now expensive, and speculative selling at prices above 800 is a very good proposition. If you have been thinking where I've been the last few days, the answer is: selling. And running excel calculations. and selling some more.
I believe that bitcoin can reach 1 million dollars in 2016, but not now.
Selling now a large percentage of bitcoins with the intention to double the stash by buying at half the price 1-3 months from now has more than 50% probability of success, therefore is a +EV move. It would have been possible both in 2011 aftermath and at the top of the spring 2013 dcb. The only time it would not have been possible was after the 2010 "bubbles" that never popped and just went on. I think I have way better than 50% chances here - especially as the "negative" scenario is that I will be one of the richest people in the world
565.
Post 3928656 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.36h):
Incorrect. Phew.
Understatement of the century. If you have read any of my threads, you know very well that I know a lot about many things, and actively use this knowledge to my advantage.
What comes to the predictive value, both of the previous big bubbles behaved nicely according to this model, with predictive value. We need to have jumped to something completely different, in order for this model
not to continue holding true. The probability of this happening is well under 50%, even with Bitcoin
Bitcoin price and adoption are different, and I have an article about this in store.
My bet stands, by the way, in case you really believe all this and aren't just trying to reverse the mistake you made by selling out at $700.
Breaking out of that triangle in a big way. Anyone want to place bets on recovery or bull trap?
You mean an actual bet? Yeah, sure. I feel we will go visit the exponential trendline.
I am game. 10 BTC that we don't touch your exponential trendline in December?
The one that projects $428, not one that incorporates data up to Dec. 9.
Ah, never saw that one. From the high point of the dead cat bounce, to the day that exponential trend is breached, last time it was 45 days. If we were to bet on similar terms, the bet would stand as follows:
- On or before 25. January 2014, the price is less than 573.
There is no much reason to bet 1:1 whether price goes to 428 in December. I am getting better odds by just selling at >2*428
566.
Post 3928700 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.36h):
You thought I thought that I would make friends here by pushing hard to both eyes at the same time.
No, I did not think I would
Bears roam freely. Bulls, sheep, pigs are domestic animals => get slaughtered.
567.
Post 3928743 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.36h):
But what do you understand? Nothing.
In
this and
this mainstream media article about my Bitcoin research, both the article and the comment section suppose that the methodology is based on blockhain address balances, which is just plain incorrect.
568.
Post 3928878 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.36h):
Bears roam freely.
And the choochoo train runs them all over.
Buffaloes were bulls afaik....
Bears roam freely. Bulls, sheep, pigs are domestic animals => get slaughtered.
bears get left out in the cold and the only way they can survive is if they sleep for 5 months in a row
now whales on the other hand roam free all the time and do whatever the fuck they want
If I could post a pic of my castle, I would... there will be cars also, rest assured. Whale-bear castle in Estonia.
569.
Post 3931640 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.36h):
It took years to recover from 2011. It took months to recover from April 2013. This rally will be even easier to recover from. Barring some bad news, it won't take several months before we start going up again. We might, MIGHT, dip below $600 but I really doubt it. I thought for sure we would go back to $50. So much so that I ignored the obvious fact that the bottom was in at $66. People are staring at $600 now. Everyone knows the significance of that #. Barring bad news, I don't think we go below it. If we do then $500 will be the absolute bottom. But we will be headed north again, most bearish scenario, by February.
Agreed. The cycle is accelerating, all the signs are there. We're hitting the mainstream. Train is picking up steam, if you like.
Risto and the bears are myopically pointing to the meaningless trendline... look at the time lag between the April and November rallies compared to the behavior before, and tell me this thing isn't accelerating.
I'd be unsurprised to see the next rally inside of 3 months.
I have also had my first bubble, which is characterized by disbelief, and the second (first in which I was invested) characterized by euphoria and denial of bubblepop. Now in my third bubble I am wiser and know the trendline, and the value of pi() is still 3.14159... even in heaven, and some things just don't change, and even if they do, you can quantify then mathematically. This is analysis over emotion thing now. Some point in the next 3 months we will see 0.5, possibly lower, and afterwards I will tell you how much I made.
You(pl.) sound so much like me last April that I wonder if your investor cycle is one bubble behind me
570.
Post 3931941 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.36h):
And you're going to be eating crow AGAIN when your prediction (based on the past performance of bitcoin bubbles) comes up false.
How come I am so much richer than you if all I do is to handle money, and I do it so badly?
How old are you, 22?
EDIT: In addition you say that 2011 left you in disbelief and 2013 in euphoria. Ummmm...notice that those 2 bubbles ended completely different. And yes, I am a bubble behind you, but I am aware enough to know that this bubble and the last will end completely different too.
What were the differences in the bubbles' endings?
571.
Post 3932057 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.36h):
However, you are mortal and catastrophically overconfident in your ability to predict chaotic systems.
That is just plain misunderstanding. I know that probabilities add to 1 and I should not invest more than I can afford to lose
It is exactly the ordinary people who gamble with all their wealth daily (by taking a mortgage, for example). They are taking a serious financial risk. I am never taking any financial risk. By being risk-free I have been able to pursue the opportunities and grow our family wealth at about 51% APR over 11 years.
572.
Post 3932112 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.36h):
I'm 40.
Ah OK, let's leave it there. I remember your entrance to the forum and was thinking oh sheez what a kid....
I appreciate your way of making money for you, and will tell when I have closed my trade, and how much I made. Peace?
573.
Post 3932365 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.36h):
Lol. No one wants to short BTC on Bitfinex now
Contrarian indicator. Let's see if I wanted
574.
Post 3932440 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.36h):
And if you don't know that the 2011 bubble went below its previous starting point
The 2011 bubble's starting point was $0.06.
The bottom after the crash was $1.99
What is especially interesting is that if you draw a least-squares fit trendline in the logarithmic price chart here, you get
the same (+/- 10%) slope as with the whole of Bitcoin's price appreciation over the 5 years of its existence. Also if you take only 2013 as your data, again,
same thing.
Now be my guest and rush to
buy bitcoins and not understand that this information is only available because I spent days modelling it.
575.
Post 3934333 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.36h):
And if you don't know that the 2011 bubble went below its previous starting point
The 2011 bubble's starting point was $0.06.
The bottom after the crash was $1.99
What is especially interesting is that if you draw a least-squares fit trendline in the logarithmic price chart here, you get
the same (+/- 10%) slope as with the whole of Bitcoin's price appreciation over the 5 years of its existence. Also if you take only 2013 as your data, again,
same thing.
Now be my guest and rush to
buy bitcoins and not understand that this information is only available because I spent days modelling it.
Out of curiosity when you superimposed this rally on top of those two things what does it tell you the new bottom is, when it will be met and at rate the rally will begin?
I have not done anything resembling that kind of analysis for weeks, so sorry - no new information.
Last time when I was predicting bubbles based on previous bubbles, the intraday post-bubble bottom should be about 1.7-1.9x the intraday pre-bubble ATH. So considering that the pre-bubble ATH was 266, now we are looking to have a bottom in the 452-504 range. And that is intraday, so according to this we should buy quite aggressively starting from 550, because it takes time to buy 1000s of coins.
My two calls for the high point of the bubble ($2000+ and 10kCNY+) were off.
576.
Post 3947275 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
The significance of all this is that if we trade in a range for a few weeks it is megabullish. And right now it looks like we are going to (at worst) trade at a high range 850-1050 than a lower range 650-850.
Simply amazing. I expected more out of the bears honestly.
The bears are the ones who sold their coins and are waiting for it to go down.
The bulls are ones who have the coins and are hoping it to go up.
The funny thing is that neither bulls nor bears are in the position to influence the market to their desired direction (because they already made their own move). The success of either is dependent on how to make the other one fold. The forum (incorrectly) constantly talks about bulls buying and bears selling, which is not the case. An upward action is bear running to cover (unless it's virgin buying) and downward action is bulls panicking.
It is generally better to be bull, because the new money raises price on average 24% per month, which is really a lot.
When price has risen to much higher than the trend, however, it may be advantageous to be a bear. From now I will have 3 months to buy back at trendline at a wash, or up to 100% gain. Any number of negative things can happen meanwhile, short-term reducing the price, and my buyback method catches flashcrashes also.
The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore. If I am right, everyone who lost their shirt is bitter at me (I am very good in explaining how right I was
). If I am wrong, people whose general trackrecord is much weaker, are laughing at me. I have not made my 51% APR by listening to other people of course, but I also don't want to argue with them.
So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?
577.
Post 3947311 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
you still have to set strict stop-losses and always follow them.
Are you willing to quantify this stop-loss approach, so that I could run a few simulations?
Eg. "always sell when price dips 10% from the ATH", "Buy back at ATH"
578.
Post 3947333 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?
I am certain that a man of your means has better things to do with his time than generate Excel trends through historical data and pretend it reveals secrets about the future.
Especially as I reveal a secret to you: just yesterday I hired an excel-wiz to crunch the numbers, and he can even post the charts here! The ominous lack of visualization is just my inability to transmit the graphics
579.
Post 3947408 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
At $600 the 'trends' were still peaking (as much as I hate to depend on trends), the media was still pumping the bitcoin propaganda and people's interests were being piqued.
Now the trends are down, the media has been saturated (something thats hard for bitcoiners to accept, what people actually would just ignore our bitcoin arcitles???) and we are yesterday's news.
As far as not knowing how much 'pressure' is left. It's pretty obvious, we've been flapping off this ~1k resistance like a wet fish for for a while now, the only pressure that's left is in bull's heads.
My bearish call was about 7 hours after China popped in 19th November, public the following day. My correct calls have been to sell ALL bitcoins in 2011 for $25 (never before, nor ever after), and buy back at $2-$3 (which I did follow myself).
The fact that after the actual pop in November, the old steam still inflated the bubble to almost twice the size is fun
Perhaps selling some more today - every day mounts more evidence that it's not going anywhere.
580.
Post 3949532 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
I wouldn't trade BTC now in any direction if my life would depend on it..
Get in, don't worry, be happy.
Not only dip your toes, get in with head and shoulder, teacup with handle, beer glass, butt and tits and everything. Edit: and your alpaca socks, iranian hand made shoes and your lamborghini.
Yeah, now is an exceptional time to get in. Last time the trend and its direction were in this level was at 11th April, noon GMT
581.
Post 3950342 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
Can some of the oldtimers help the community and post bid/ask ratio charts, please
582.
Post 3952448 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
comeon bears, i have a 10,000$ prize for you, you know you want it!
What is this? Always interested in prizes!
583.
Post 3952836 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
comeon bears, i have a 10,000$ prize for you, you know you want it!
What is this? Always interested in prizes!
rpietila
just wondering, as a big BTC holder, have you sold some coins in the past month?
4-figure, but not 5-figure amount. Why?
584.
Post 3952929 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
That seems pretty serious to me. Just in case, you all should sell right now.
US = 4% of the world, UK = ?
585.
Post 3953086 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
Just panic sell already!
Yes I am selling all the time, can't you see?
No panic though, I want 850 minimum. Panic starts after that
586.
Post 3953961 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
Many good points, but this was an LMAO:
Based on an annual world gross product of $71 trillion, and presuming a 5% return on
capital, we can value the real assets of the world at $71 trillion/0.05 = $1.4 quadrillion. However, world
gross production is probably not utilizing resources at anywhere near 5%
, and so the true value of all the real assets is probably
much greater than this. As an order of magnitude though, the value of the real
assets is probably somewhere in the quadrillions of dollars, perhaps tens of quadrillions.
10 quadrillion = 10 billion million. So a million for every person on the planet, and then some, and nobody's in debt etc. Hardly likely
587.
Post 3954127 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
comeon bears, i have a 10,000$ prize for you, you know you want it!
What is this? Always interested in prizes!
rpietila
just wondering, as a big BTC holder, have you sold some coins in the past month?
4-figure, but not 5-figure amount. Why?
I don't believe you have 10k coins. When does your next sell start so that we can watch? You're waiting bids to pile up at stamp?
On serious note, you might burn badly. I'm all BTC.
I've made the big sales already, a few 100 here and there left. But now I don't do momentum, so I just sell when the price is good and buy back after 1-3 months. No need for dramatic moves.
588.
Post 3954179 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
To spice up a little: Is anyone willing to accept a $10,000-$100,000 escrowed bet that Bitstamp will hit $500 before hitting $1,000?
What odds? I am thinking that $1,000 is much more probable but I am willing to take the other side if odds good enough.
589.
Post 3954213 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
something tells me you miss calculated
Sorry to speak so harshly, but when have
you presented any evidence/research to back your opinions?
I would really like to hear where the miscalculation is.
One of the best indicators that I am right is that everybody thinks otherwise while the dice are still rolling.
590.
Post 3954522 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
There be a huge bid wall on Bitstamp at 830. I've usually seen those before a dump!
Don't worry, it will not be there for long. Watch.
591.
Post 3954670 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
There be a huge bid wall on Bitstamp at 830. I've usually seen those before a dump!
Don't worry, it will not be there for long. Watch.
Now it will go away.
592.
Post 3954797 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
All sing: It's a kind of magic!
How to make a million dollars (from orderbook) go poof
593.
Post 3954967 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
All sing: It's a kind of magic!
How to make a million dollars (from orderbook) go poof
If you want to know what's the point in having walls on the opposite side of what you are doing, the benefit is twofold:
- The price can be pushed higher. It is only between 0.5%-1%, but it adds up when making a large trade.
- The volume can be induced. Bitstamp was dead before the walls, but then there came so many traders that I could sell
BTC300 in 40 minutes with positive slippage (while trolling the forum ofc)!
In total I made about $3,000-$5,000 by not crashing the price to 850. In another kind of circumstances that would have been beneficial due to the panic effect but now it does not matter; bitcoin is overvalued and it will slowly come down in the timeframe of 1-3 months.
594.
Post 3955126 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
and i think that even if the market goes down, their wont be enough asks for you to effectively buy back the coins you sold.
this is pure speculation on my part.
Facts do not support your speculation. There have been 4 major high-volume crashes in the last month, the 5-minute volume in one exchange alone in the bottom of the crash is easily
BTC2,000.
Example chart&data.
I am prepared to trade the final capitulation in 4 exchanges, spreading the volume.
If I was an order of magnitude bigger, then I could not hide my buys in the orderbooks and it would be complicated. But then I would own an exchange and oh boy...
595.
Post 3955239 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level.
We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%.
I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post...
596.
Post 3955256 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
china will go thru 5500 soon, they already punctured it and now they are oversold
Having seen my magic, perhaps you can now publicly acknowledge that I have 10,000 bitcoins, apologize, stfu and gtfo. OK?
597.
Post 3955484 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level.
We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%.
I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post...
But this is btc:-D
Btc dont care
You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me...
How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?- If this price is breached, Goat wins.
- If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins.
Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date.
598.
Post 3955514 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
Of course with China anything is possible, we can all be wrong, and nobody knows what's going to happen. They have messed up all our TA and seem to have their own TA like 'the book of the path of the dragon'.
The Chinese dragon is ripping the faces off a few bears at the moment.
Yeah, one more % and it has regained all the losses of the last 12 hours. Yawn....
599.
Post 3955550 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
I really believe that Risto is seriously trolling in here. It's virtually IMPOSSIBLE to predict ANYTHING for sure into such a system like BTC. A serious prediction of ANY chaotic system (not one like we're observing here, which may as well be the mother of all chaotic systems) would have been in the timeframe of minutes or hours at max, not days; nor weeks.
I'm interested in short-term predictions, like for next hour or so
Just like, in between 21:25-22:15 UTC, the price went up by 1% with high volume. I told before, in this very thread. Why did you not piggyback that one?
600.
Post 3955699 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
I really believe that Risto is seriously trolling in here. It's virtually IMPOSSIBLE to predict ANYTHING for sure into such a system like BTC. A serious prediction of ANY chaotic system (not one like we're observing here, which may as well be the mother of all chaotic systems) would have been in the timeframe of minutes or hours at max, not days; nor weeks.
ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.
Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).
I have a special kind of mind, it is quite simple, but it can calculate monetary probabilities very well. Somebody else may choke on his numbers, or shortcircuit and SHOUT that it is impossible to predict anything with certainty. Sure it is. Still some people win in poker and others don't.
I have a simple model that shows (among others) that after bubble pop, as long as the price is 0.2 or more log-units over the trendline, it is not possible to sell at a profit in 1-6 months timeframe. It is quite sobering: by selling at $628 today, the buyback at a profit is guaranteed for many months to come.
Chances that the model ends up faulty (that despite their mutual differences, 2 previous bubbles have something intrinsic in common that the 3rd does not have) are 20-30%, which means that the odds are way in favor. With this kind of odds it is Kelly optimal to risk about 40% of your net worth.
601.
Post 3955759 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
24:00 UTC is a confusing time. Say 23:59 UTC.
Also couldn't Goat just buy up to $1163/BTC and then just sell again. Would only lose transaction fees to win $50K. But I suppose you could set up sell orders to stop him from winning the bet.
LOL, you are smart! I checked that I needed to back off from the $1000 bet because of insufficient ASK volume. But $1163 I am sure Goat and his bull friends cannot conquer (they don't have much fiat, only btc). I also have friends with many BTC and they know that it is going down. What is more fun than to sell some more at an inflated price
If we actually battle at 1100+ territory then the $50k is peanuts
602.
Post 3955810 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
It's time to call it a day anyway.
Yes, good night all! The bet is not available until I come back online and recalculate the odds. If Goat does not want it, I can perhaps do a smaller amount.
603.
Post 3956071 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
$200 is easy as fuck, but i still dont get what this has to do with the claim btc WILL go down 50%
(good that I didnt close this yet)
If you are willing to bet on the low point of BTC, I can do that also.
Do you pay me 2 to 1 in USD that Bitcoin will visit $450 in either Gox/Bitstamp in 3 months?
You lose, I get $50k.
I lose, you get $25k.
604.
Post 3956268 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
$200 is easy as fuck, but i still dont get what this has to do with the claim btc WILL go down 50%
(good that I didnt close this yet)
If you are willing to bet on the low point of BTC, I can do that also.
Do you pay me 2 to 1 in USD that Bitcoin will visit $450 in either Gox/Bitstamp in 3 months?
You lose, I get $50k.
I lose, you get $25k.
I will do it at 1 to 1 odds at your date February 13th 24:00 UTC,
Since you made the claim I think it is silly to give you odds. I will do $50,000 or $25,000.
Hack, and roll backs or other crazy stuff we need to rule out. Govt making BTC illegal or whatever and price crashes would be fine. But like errors on the charts, would not count.
This is cool?
Ah, a little bit too far from what I was thinking, and too tired to make a counterproposal. Let's check tomorrow if we still have a cockfight
605.
Post 3956303 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
$200 is easy as fuck, but i still dont get what this has to do with the claim btc WILL go down 50%
(good that I didnt close this yet)
If you are willing to bet on the low point of BTC, I can do that also.
Do you pay me 2 to 1 in USD that Bitcoin will visit $450 in either Gox/Bitstamp in 3 months?
You lose, I get $50k.
I lose, you get $25k.
I will do it at 1 to 1 odds at your date February 13th 24:00 UTC,
Since you made the claim I think it is silly to give you odds. I will do $50,000 or $25,000.
Hack, and roll backs or other crazy stuff we need to rule out. Govt making BTC illegal or whatever and price crashes would be fine. But like errors on the charts, would not count.
This is cool?
Ah, a little bit too far from what I was thinking, and too tired to make a counterproposal. Let's check tomorrow if we still have a cockfight
You made the claim today, if you don't want to back it up today that is fine. There will be no bet tomorrow.
Thanks
Fine.
606.
Post 3956348 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
So despite all of your talk about how bitcoin is overbought and will go down 50%... you believe the chances of it dropping in half are less than 50%...
Just one more time - ALL "my" financial transactions are hedged so no matter what contract I enter into, it does not change my net position from where I want it to be. The intent of "bets" is to find
+EV deals and have fun (my offers have been really good for Goat, but his was -EV for me). This allows me to bet with huge amounts, because it is all calculated and hedged.
Once I made 2 bets both ending in the same date, one was for "bitcoin hits $1,000 before DATE" and the other was "bitcoin does not hit $5,000 before DATE". I already won one, and will probably win the other also. In any case, I could not lose by having these 2 bets but I could win them both.
607.
Post 3956416 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
china will go thru 5500 soon, they already punctured it and now they are oversold
Having seen my magic, perhaps you can now publicly acknowledge that I have 10,000 bitcoins, apologize, stfu and gtfo. OK?
well no, that wall wasn't that big
you can talk, but i don't think you have what it takes to walk the talk
ofc this is a good thing because you don't deserve your coins
bitcoin shows that it works, spreading your coins to wiser folk
You are a bad loser, talking nonsense when you should be really ashamed.
608.
Post 3959939 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
This is just part of the psychological manipulation game. The "wall" is not there to keep the price down, and of course not to sell. It is there for the sole purpose of keeping the bid sum/ask sum numbers manipulated. Makes it seem that there are a lot of coins for sale, when in fact, a good chunk of the asks are that one person. Once people start to figure this out, and that there are not nearly as many coins for sale at this price as it would seem, well, that will be interesting for sure . . .
+1.
It is this kind of content that I search for when reading this thread, but find very little.
Most of it is just attempt to prove me wrong by expending
words, which is very silly, because words have power only when they are true.
Hope that you can hold on to your coins for the next 6 months, otherwise you should have listened to me
I think I have said all. Under no circumstances will I write anything in this thread before it goes to $500. I have a castle to attend to meanwhile
609.
Post 4022038 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.41h):
It is all just luck, remember. Nobody can predict the future.
610.
Post 4023518 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.41h):
I don't think it will go much lower anymore in the short term. Even if they sell it to zero in China does not mean that the west would not have competition on who would get the cheap coins. Short term we are very oversold and it is only a liquidity/waking hours issue to go back up. The fact that there is a huge arbitrage coin influx from China dampens it a "little bit", though, but this is already in prices in the west.
The exponential trend (now at $437) was touched, which means that longer term bitcoin is no more overvalued. I regard this as a good entry point and have bought thousands of bitcoins yesterday and today, closing all speculative short positions at a nice profit and gone speculative long with funds I need in 1-2 months.
My last bid in Bidstamp is sitting at 421.42, please somebody sell into it!
611.
Post 4024086 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.41h):
It will always go up and down, but never that down again (talking Bitstamp). All my downside targets are fulfilled, so basically bitcoin can resume uptrend.
Trendtargets:
31.12. - 479
31.1. - 608
612.
Post 4028574 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.42h):
ref: rpietila / others who 'knew'
Did they just have 'better' information than us in terms of an early 'nod' on the news?
Maybe this has been raised in the last few pages - I confess I haven't got time to look back - but is it not possible someone knew someone, who knew what was about to happen?
To accurately say 'it will go down to 500' is pretty good.
Was it a timed assault of a wave of selling and the timing was lucky - or was it timed FOR the news once it was obvious it was coming (if you had the right information).
Questions, questions.....
I knew in a general way that there will be forces acting against bitcoin now. Bitcoin was overvalued, in a downtrend, and above the long term trendline. Shorting it was a no-brainer. I did not even know that it would happen so quickly. Anyway I was positioned and made a nice 10% gain for my whole portfolio off of this crash. The last crash I made about the same. It's a yearly gain of 20% in bitcoins, so it is a lot.
Guys + girls,
The Episode II of my diary is nearing its end. I started it in 3.11.2013, in anticipation of a rally in bitcoin. About the same time I had a very intense Facebook campaign. The price started moving immediately, and so quickly that I issued my initial bearish call in 19.-20.11. That proved to be premature - the price still went up and crossed the important $1 threshold in the following days. It soon became apparent that it was overextended from the trendline however, and therefore exceedingly difficult to keep its uptrend. From the dead cat bounce (10.12.) following the double top (30.11.&4.12.), I have been selling more coins. I have devoted my last 2 weeks to researching about the price, whether I want to enter into such a trade. So far it is working well, selling more into rallies and buying some back at dips. I expect that the downtrend takes us to somewhere between $0.3 and $0.5 in the following months.
When the price was still rising, I had the mood and time to conduct Bitcoin Economics research. There is a list of the threads in the OP. I feel that in the short time quite many important topics have been presented and discussed. These threads will not become obsolete because of short-term events or swings in price.
There are some important matters that I must move on to. Perhaps some still remember the Supernode Network (still no better name
), which I promised will be started at $1.4/m
BTC. As I now see it, reaching that figure is not happening any time soon, so I will have the opportunity to take the time off, and let the bubble-bust cycle run its natural course. If Wall Observer is any guide, we are now strongly in the "denial" phase (consult the well-known chart for details).
If you are heavy in bitcoin, and especially if this is your first bubble, I would ask you to consider if you still feel good if the price goes to $0.3 or $0.4. Otherwise it might be a time to sell a fraction of the holdings now at the record prices.
For those new in bitcoin, this is a very good time to enter with experimental/speculative funds, and buy more when the price goes down.
I do not suggest daytrading bitcoin to anyone: like all speculative markets, it is heavily manipulated, you pay fees, waste valuable time playing a zero-sum game and generally end up on the losing side of the trade. Optimally you only accumulate bitcoin until you have enough (never sell), and once you have enough, you gradually start to sell/buy things with it (and never buy back coins). This minimizes the problems outlined above.
Thank you for all the wonderful community and contributors!
613.
Post 4034053 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.42h):
The immediate trend is strongly UP. On daily basis we are way oversold. I expect an advance to 666 area in the following hours/days. After that, the downtrend resumes and visiting the long-term trendline at about 450 is a strong possibility.
EDIT: Bitstamp
614.
Post 4041332 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
The immediate trend is strongly UP. On daily basis we are way oversold. I expect an advance to 666 area in the following hours/days. After that, the downtrend resumes and visiting the long-term trendline at about 450 is a strong possibility.
EDIT: Bitstamp
615.
Post 4056210 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
Good mormon everyone. I have to work today so can't trade. Where shall I leave my bids? Got a couple at 300 (ha!), couple at 500....(ha!). What's the plan you non-pigs?
I think you will be disappointed.
+1
Shorter term there's a lot of support at 500 so a bounce from that level seems probable.
Longer term I think there is a chance that 350 will be visited but 300 would require something which I don't have knowledge of.
Add +10% for Gox.
616.
Post 4063655 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.44h):
The
exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a
logistic function of bitcoin adoption. The model leads to $1M/
BTC in 2016-17.
We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.
If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.
April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.
617.
Post 4070558 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.44h):
The immediate trend is strongly UP. On daily basis we are way oversold. I expect an advance to 666 area in the following hours/days. After that, the downtrend resumes and visiting the long-term trendline at about 450 is a strong possibility.
618.
Post 4071068 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.44h):
daytraders, whats your actual timeframe you speculate on? 2h?
5 minutes for quick in and out movements
15 minutes to denote the local end of a sharp crash for the day
1 hour to predict a nice breakout.
4 hour to go all in
1 day for da cold storage hodling
I rarely buy and sell the same day (except when arbing, but that kinda died out with BTC China). Actually made only 3 major moves on our way down from the top:
- sell at 925-870
- buy at 670-420
- sell at 610-720
Next I will buy back cheaply.
619.
Post 4071442 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.44h):
daytraders, whats your actual timeframe you speculate on? 2h?
5 minutes for quick in and out movements
15 minutes to denote the local end of a sharp crash for the day
1 hour to predict a nice breakout.
4 hour to go all in
1 day for da cold storage hodling
I rarely buy and sell the same day (except when arbing, but that kinda died out with BTC China). Actually made only 3 major moves on our way down from the top:
- sell at 925-870
- buy at 670-420
- sell at 610-720
Next I will buy back cheaply.
Do you see the market testing the old april ATH?
In a way, yes. But I would be surprised if we go even near it in actual dollars.
The "battle of ATH" in the way up was fought at about $200. Now I think it is fought in 300s.
Longer analysis.
620.
Post 4072142 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.44h):
I have a bad feeling about this trend, I am afraid that we will see a new low over the next couple of days
There is a strong support @ 630
It will probably fall, since other exchanges are leading lower. I doubt that the 640 bid wall in Gox wants to get eaten.
The market is clearly looking for blood, and my question is whether it will bounce back at 500 or go all the way down to new lows.
621.
Post 4072208 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.44h):
I feel bad that there is so much juicy fiat in Mt.Gox at good terms (640), but it takes 1 hour to get the coins there and it sure is gone before that clears
622.
Post 4072437 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.44h):
Is there an argument for not selling at the moment?
I try to make one:
- It is possible to construct the Elliot waves such that the 3-wave contrarian move UP has not consummated yet, rather this is its second leg down, which will be followed by yet another one up (to about $750-$780). It will go so high because many expect that the correction is then over and panic buy is the norm of the day. But then the 5-wave down will commence...
623.
Post 4072475 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.44h):
I feel bad that there is so much juicy fiat in Mt.Gox at good terms (640), but it takes 1 hour to get the coins there and it sure is gone before that clears
are you actually trying to buy coins at these prices? Because it sounds weird to me that you would publicly post your strategy. I would expect that whales do the opposite to what they say.
No, sell, of course. There is not even volume enough for buying. But I sent the coins anyway, just in case it's still there when they arrive (4 conf now).
624.
Post 4072550 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.44h):
Is there an argument for not selling at the moment?
I try to make one:
- It is possible to construct the Elliot waves such that the 3-wave contrarian move UP has not consummated yet, rather this is its second leg down, which will be followed by yet another one up (to about $750-$780). It will go so high because many expect that the correction is then over and panic buy is the norm of the day. But then the 5-wave down will commence...
is this analysis based on stamp or gox?
Does not really matter, since this was a tongue-in-the-cheek reply to magicmexican whether there is anything that supports
not selling.
I usually use stamp for analysis, because it is bigger, and possible to withdraw.
ok my transaction finally got included, were you having the same problem ?
No, but mine was large + I paid a fee.
625.
Post 4072665 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.44h):
Also, why would Rpietila put extra selling pressure on Gox, while waiting for his BTC to be confirmed?
It's not a big deal really, but good thing is that now it's cleared. I'm just maybe starting to believe my own Elliott Wave interpretation and not sell...
626.
Post 4079239 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.45h):
I think we can all agree that the lowest price a person could reasonably sell a bitcoin is in the 400s.
2 months ago, 400 was generally regarded as outrageous. So perhaps now it is the new floor
627.
Post 4086153 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.45h):
pit pat piffy
wing wong wang
ty, very informative
He just inspired me to post about our
new dinner set. It is a quite airy, elegant design with a touch of platinum in place of the usual gold. Just hauled it from the store yesterday
628.
Post 4086360 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.45h):
pit pat piffy
wing wong wang
ty, very informative
He just inspired me to post about our
new dinner set. It is a quite airy, elegant design with a touch of platinum in place of the usual gold. Just hauled it from the store yesterday
Just out of curiosity:
Did you sell yesterday evening when Gox was around 630?
No, it started to feel that it would go up, even 800 possibly. I have lots of coin to sell if it reaches 750-800 level. Remembering that the long term trend is only about 450, it is quite easy money to sell now provided that you have the balls to wait for the buyback which you cannot guarantee when it will happen (AND of course there is a 10-20% chance that it will never happen).
629.
Post 4086767 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.45h):
Sell at 650, and buy back at 450 => 44% more coins.
Sell at 650, and stop-loss buy at 1170 => 44% less coins.
So if you estimate that the pullback has any greater than 50% probability to happen, you should sell a part of your holdings. Simple as that.
630.
Post 4087030 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.45h):
The original post contained more explanation but then disappeared due to 502
631.
Post 4091931 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.45h):
For me, those two facts are signals that this downtrend is coming to an end, thoughts?
We will go below the long-term exponential trend, which is now at $450, and spend a long time there.
Although the trend rises fast (double every 99 days), I have a full conviction that we will go below $500 again, likely $400, unlikely $300.
Of course the capitulation can only come after "everybody" has bought back in, so please do as you wish
I am prepared to wait until March. If it happens next week I am all good, but then the price will again go up, and there will be yet another crash later, before we resume uptrend.
632.
Post 4092256 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.45h):
We will go below the long-term exponential trend, which is now at $450, and spend a long time there.
Although the trend rises fast (double every 99 days), I have a full conviction that we will go below $500 again, likely $400, unlikely $300.
I love it when you make bold predictions.
If you think it goes below 300, I am willing to bet against you
633.
Post 4092387 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.45h):
I always like to see what you have to say and I am pretty impressed by your call on the last dip and bounce. What is your take on the bear chart on the other thread in regards to coin days lost?
I think the most obvious reason why somebody would like to move ancient coins is in order to sell them.
634.
Post 4092545 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.45h):
If you think it goes below 300, I am willing to bet
I have no idea where the price is going but I fondly remember the time when you predicted the price would never go below $100 again. That was about 24 hours before the price dived below $100 on heavy volume.
Predicting the markets is making educated guesses about the probabilities of things happening. It becomes successful investing if you spot the +EV deals and act on them (and your skill is good enough to estimate the probabilities).
When I predicted no going below 100, my skill was not as good as now. I would have bet, and lost. (And I also lost by going 100% all-in before the dip). Now I am saying no going below 300. If it goes below, I lose the possible bet + I lose because my bids were too high. It does not mean that I find it unthinkable to go there. If I bet 2:1 for example, it means that I think the probability is anything less than 33%.
This was also the beef last spring, and many people have been ridiculing me for trying to (unsuccessfully) give them juicy odds for bets that I would have lost. Now I think it is bad behavior - just "no thanks" should be enough.In the last dip I went 100% all in at $421, because that was my assessment of the lowest realistic price in Bitstamp that day after the previous close of 675. I lost, because it went to $382. Well, many lost much more by being even worse in predicting
635.
Post 4092593 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.45h):
I always like to see what you have to say and I am pretty impressed by your call on the last dip and bounce. What is your take on the bear chart on the other thread in regards to coin days lost?
I think the
most obvious reason why somebody would like to move ancient coins is in order to sell them.
What about moving them into cold wallets? Doing general bookkeeping (dividing the coins into smaller denominated inputs to reflect to rise in purchasing power)?
636.
Post 4094432 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.45h):
Does not look too rosy for bulls now... My final speculation before Christmas is that we will see quite low prices (already) before New Year's.
Merry Christmas/Xmas/Holidays everyone!
637.
Post 4165102 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.47h):
Right now the market wants to go up. Just deal with it. ATHs are much more likely before <380.
How much more likely?
638.
Post 4166206 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.47h):
Rpietila , Whats your insight for early 2014?
According to the trendline model, we should reach the ATH earliest May, and before that have a consolidation in 500 area, with possibly 1-2 dips below that. The trendline is the sum total of all news, etc. so it will most likely continue to be valid this year as it has all the previous years. SlipperySlope's logistic model has actually a less steep trendline because it is based on MtGox data only whereas I have all of it since 2009.
Due to several risks (most of it related to exchanges) I advocate keeping 50% of your (liquid) net worth in paper wallets. The rest should be mostly in fiat in this kind of condition where we are in a bear market following the bubble top, and the trendline does not allow a further uptrend just yet.
If you recall the April bubble and its aftermath, there was a high consolidation in 130 area which lasted for several weeks before the final capitulation. I don't believe we can stay at 750 and continue going up from here.
639.
Post 4166296 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.47h):
It's not a bubble. The "crashes" are the train stopping and refilling
In both Mar-Apr and Nov, the time period from busting the previous ATH to making the new was less than a month. The ATH from 2011 was current for 19 months and April was 7 months. So the refillings tend to take much longer than the choochoos.
640.
Post 4166443 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.47h):
It's not a bubble. The "crashes" are the train stopping and refilling
In both Mar-Apr and Nov, the time period from busting the previous ATH to making the new was less than a month. The ATH from 2011 was current for 19 months and April was 7 months. So the refillings tend to take much longer than the choochoos.
Well it is better to jump aboard and enjoy the ride, than to have missed the train and the Choo Choo'ssss!
Yes, this is what I also advocate for the 99% (SSS savings plan).
But if you are here trading, then you should trade when the probabilities are on your side, and betting against 5-year trendline based on (what exactly?) is not smart trading imho.
641.
Post 4184419 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.47h):
What Loaded meant is that he has loads of customers who bought at $10-$100 and are eager to take part in Bitcoin's profits, but do not care about suffering its downtrends. He need to unload perhaps 10,000s of coins and is doing a good job manipulating the market to look like a good opportunity for the small traders to buy in. To sell the coins at this thin market a crash is required - there is just not enough volume in the updays.
In general, there is very little buying interest above $400. The smart money knows when there is more air in the bubble and has no problem waiting for not only realistic valuation but preferably despair.
642.
Post 4184479 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.47h):
Instead of quoting and making insults, why don't you just count your BTC and learn from them who have more??
643.
Post 4184676 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.47h):
Your hate-posts are noise. Wise up and quit posting them.
Quite many want to hear my predictions (or yours), but nobody wants to hear how much you hate me because I am richer for the reason that I have better track record than you in BTC.
I listen to Goat and Loaded because they have more BTC than me. Then some are smarter than me for example Zanglebert, wachtwoord and oakpacific. BitChick is just cute. But the others, no need to reply just to show hate; the time is better spent honing your own excels.
644.
Post 4184890 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.47h):
The official December update is coming at the end of December. My current trendline which is calculated from daily prices until 15.12.2013, shows that we are at $469 now. We have not yet had any daily breaches of the trendline since the latest bubblepop.
Many have wondered, whether the trendline approach was able to cope with the extreme price movements of the 2011 bubble. It is true that during the move up, it was not possible to deduce anything from the trendline, which had just started to form. But during the move down, it called the bottom with almost deadly precision: the trendline was crossed down in 7.10.2011 (note: 4 months after the top) when the price was $4.29. The buy-level, which is -0.2 log units below the trend, was reached 17.10.2011 at $2.85. On a daily level, the bottom was reached 2 days after, at $2.28. At that point we were -0.341 units below the trend.
In 2013 April bubble, the final capitulation played out as follows: trendline was crossed in 3.6.2013 at $119, buy-level of -0.2 was reached in 1.7.2013 at $90, bottom was in 6.7.2013 at $69 at -0.341.
I am sure that -0.341 as the daily average of the most opportune day to buy, months after the bubble, is pure coincidence
Nevertheless, it gives confidence to those who do not decide to invest all after a runup, fearing to be left behind. If we expect the final capitulation to come on the red candles' day (14.2.2014), it is still possible to buy back in between $308-$427 if the previous bubbles are any guide.
This is to refute oda.krell who does not base his predictions of "trends" on anything, I at least try. Nobody has shown any proof on any trend other than this, except lines drawn on a whim. I don't understand much, but there is a great difference between founded and unfounded prediction.
It is very easy to buy at your desired level btw. It is called "limit order".
645.
Post 4185929 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.47h):
;TLDR Not being in Bitcoin today is too risky.
This is what I also believed before jumping in to be a full time market analyst. But with decent excel skills it is possible to model many situations where it makes sense to have less than 100% in bitcoins, or trade.
I have so many lines of data and charts, for example I have analysed the bottoms of the recent crashes to 5 minute precision in all of the exchanges to find out where I get the coins cheapest and in largest quantity, and how quickly it falls, how quickly it bounces back, what volume is reasonable to expect, so what size of orders are best to use. From next week I have a new half-time assistant doing mainly the analysis of exchange behavior, so that the capturing of tops and bottoms should happen with even greater precision.
Why I mentioned limit orders is that unless you have 24/7 trading (which I don't know if anyone has), it is reasonable to have quite a lot of fiat parked in the range 20-50% below the current price. The crashes are so deep and in a sense so predictable (not possible to know when they will happen, but play out quite the same every time) that the exact placement of orders can net you
BTC10s easily. For example the Silk Road crash was an actual opportunity to buy at $90 in October. Yes, December-November-October. So many things happen in Bitcoin which cannot be predicted but can be captured with limit orders. Not being in Bitcoin is risky, but cutting your # of coins in half by insisting to buy now is not too smart either.
It is a shame that only stupid people tend to reply to my analysis, you know the ones who only want to know if the market will go up this afternoon (which in fact is the thing I
could influence the most, thus nullifying the actual predicting) and cannot comprehend an advanced prediction such as "with 70% certainty we visit $450 before hitting $1,100 which makes it a wildly profitable +32% EV play after fees".
I am sorry if any person in any standing whatsoever has been offended because of my hard speech towards the trolls who don't know how to behave respectfully.
Besides there are some strawmen arguments that I have been wrong with market calls. There is one that I remember (quitting yelling "crash" when we had climbed to the top) but every other call since the start of the October bull market has been correct afaik. If you want to say that I was wrong, please post the wrong call in context and explain why it was wrong. Or refrain from lying.
646.
Post 4192291 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
disclaimer: i sold a lot
Sold a little (
BTC400) during the last 3 days (so far).
and you keep harping on that one without end.
Even if that were the case, it does not compel you to post solely to state the fact. It is called obsession, and is unfitting for longer time members such as you, and makes everyone here think you are gay.
647.
Post 4192548 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?
I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...
648.
Post 4192793 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?
I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...
you mean that stamp dips lower relatively?
By selling at stamp now, you get about 5-6% less. But that is more than made up if the dip goes 15% lower in stamp (like it did last time). At least I think it is a +EV, even fees are lower in stamp.
One month average Gox/Bitstamp is about 6.2%
649.
Post 4198431 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
it seems clear that everyone and her brother are short-term bearish (hence has already sold everything not nailed down) and long-term bullish (hence has nailed everything left down twice, and then bolted it and welded the door shut). i am finding it increasingly difficult to imagine who, then, is left to sell anything? the guy loaded bought his doges from?
In theory it would go this way. If all the ones who influence the price are "bearish", there is no way to go but up (
bearish means willingness to buy back cheaper).
In practice, the forum is not "full" of bears. It is still quite hostile towards bears actually. You can think a truly bear-dominated situation to be the reverse of the one in late November, when I was the sole dissident in the crowd of all bulls, and even I converted back to bull in about 2 weeks because of peer pressure. Only when the single remaining bull (BitChick
) is ridiculed so hard that she cries and becomes a bear at the exact bottom, the sentiment has reached its extreme.
Also there are probably more and more large holders who do not write to the forum actively. I know several
BTC5k+ people (in fact out of my investment club, I am the only one with a large forum presence).
The record bid sum testifies to the simple strategy of selling and then buying back at a predetermined level. Quite many have seen that it worked in the past (December) and now store big fiat in orderbooks in high hopes of a flashcrash. The bids are concentrated in lower prices, which reveals their long term nature. (Also we cannot rule out manipulation with the aim of raising the price in the interim.)
With the current bid levels, it does not seem that the market would collapse overnight. But in want of buyers there is no much going up either. Anything can happen but successful traders think what is likely to happen and with what payout. 500 before 1000 stays in force.
650.
Post 4198567 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
Is this investment club open to new members? Sign message I control 10kBTC to join?
You can buy shares to join. We have about 70 members & higher.
Member is about
BTC1.5,
Partner
BTC15,
Senior Partner
BTC50,
in addition the other property that the club controls such as the clubroom and 25% of Silvervault.
651.
Post 4198695 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
I do find it ironic that our hotshot investment club supernode king of the crypto Risto got caught in the euphoria at the very end of the bubble.
is a wrong word, since I bought back only about 20% of what I had sold in 19-20.11. (and sold them again at 924 after downtrend was confirmed to me after the first big drop). But nevertheless, it was a good lesson on being right
and sitting tight, because both are essential. The results were OK but the zen was not there
Now after receiving this lesson, I have no problem being partly fiat even until March, no matter where the price goes meanwhile. In March I will need to start adjusting my bids upwards by 0.7% per day.
652.
Post 4198752 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
There is no fee. We have a company with 628 shares, and the company directly owns certain stuff, such as 1 bitcoin per share. Then it indirectly owns stuff. People own shares, and may buy and sell them. You can offer anything in exchange for a certain number of shares and have it posted to our mailing list. I have traded them vs. silver in the past that is nothing "funny", after all the name is Hopeapankki Holding Oy and silver was the main investment before bitcoin.
653.
Post 4199021 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
edit: In seriousness though, congrats on managing to break through whatever triggered your 300k delusion back in the day.
Which one of us is being fooled now?
No matter what I say, there is a great crowd of followers big and small. Of course
I benefit from being a public figure, but what exactly do
you gain from trying to "expose" me with screencaps taken from our very own commercial?
654.
Post 4200037 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
Everyone knows my long term and mid term predictions, so it's time to reveal a short-term one: the market looks like it could crash imminently any time now.
655.
Post 4201382 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
Meanwhile I feel I want to divulge some trading from Gox. This account was freshly activated in 13.12. and not used for arbitrage, so it reveals some of my actual trading skill:
SELL-1 13.-16.12. -379,997 342 097,075 900,26
BUY-1 17.-18.12. 554,946 -323 856,498 583,58 -0,351765657
SELL-2 19.-26.12. -972,091 713 878,256 734,37 0,258391254
These are the totals/averages. Given the conditions in the buyback phase BUY-1, I think 584 was a reasonable price, resulting in 50% increase of coins. I bought all the way down and my lowest bids were not hit (hence only 324k invested of the 342k sold). The SELL-2 is now a little underwater but I am prepared to sell more, in fact I did sell 200 at an average 815 a couple days ago.
How are the others doing (in the light of figures, not feelings
)?
656.
Post 4201487 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
TL,DR. Sorry for the long post, just putting thoughts into words. Maybe there's something worth reading in there but more likely just incoherent ramblings.
Much appreciated, thank you.
Do you think DOGE network is secure now?
657.
Post 4201787 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
Nice, congrats!
So what I say is a Screen shot or GTFO...
ok..
658.
Post 4202327 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
still don't see the trade history that reflects your post, having money sitting is something and showing that you are a "Pro trader" is another thing
,
In my dictionary "pro"="professional"= somebody who does it for the living, so not necessary good, but in the case of trader, he has to make some additional value compared to b&h. I aim to gain several thousand bitcoins in the period between my initial bearish call in 19.11.2013 and the final capitulation sometime next year by trading full time.
If you will convince me that you believe (and do) as you post, I will post an apology about the past few days
ok.. here are all the trades in that Mt.Gox account that sum up to the figures presented in the above post:
DATE BTC USD/BTC USD
13.12.2013 23:16 -8,322 919,89 7 655,75
13.12.2013 23:22 -22,232 919,89 20 451,16
13.12.2013 23:22 -19,445 919,89 17 887,59
13.12.2013 23:56 -10,132 949,00 9 615,37
13.12.2013 23:56 -10,402 949,00 9 871,04
13.12.2013 23:57 -15,445 949,00 14 657,62
13.12.2013 23:59 -12,231 949,00 11 607,08
13.12.2013 23:59 -0,010 949,00 9,59
15.12.2013 16:07 -50,000 899,80 44 990,00
15.12.2013 18:49 -0,881 895,00 788,91
15.12.2013 18:50 -10,000 895,00 8 950,00
15.12.2013 18:51 -0,402 895,00 359,95
15.12.2013 18:52 -0,010 895,00 8,95
15.12.2013 18:52 -0,049 895,00 43,42
15.12.2013 18:56 -6,133 895,00 5 489,33
15.12.2013 19:02 -7,525 895,00 6 734,43
15.12.2013 19:07 -2,036 897,50 1 827,57
15.12.2013 19:08 -0,300 897,50 268,91
15.12.2013 19:16 -22,664 897,50 20 341,01
15.12.2013 23:19 -50,000 924,00 46 200,00
16.12.2013 10:42 -0,957 852,00 814,99
16.12.2013 10:42 -0,200 852,00 170,40
16.12.2013 10:42 -1,155 851,22 983,24
16.12.2013 10:42 -2,000 851,22 1 702,44
16.12.2013 10:42 -0,034 851,14 28,84
16.12.2013 10:42 -0,097 851,11 82,65
16.12.2013 10:42 -0,500 851,10 425,55
16.12.2013 10:42 -0,010 851,07 8,51
16.12.2013 10:42 -0,200 851,05 170,21
16.12.2013 10:42 -0,075 851,03 63,44
16.12.2013 10:42 -0,881 851,02 750,00
16.12.2013 10:42 -2,100 851,01 1 787,12
16.12.2013 10:42 -0,235 851,00 200,00
16.12.2013 10:42 -3,500 851,00 2 978,50
16.12.2013 10:42 -0,097 851,00 82,50
16.12.2013 10:42 -0,200 851,00 170,20
16.12.2013 10:42 -0,890 851,00 757,39
16.12.2013 10:42 -6,870 851,00 5 845,98
16.12.2013 10:45 -4,719 860,00 4 058,64
16.12.2013 10:54 -1,686 860,00 1 449,62
16.12.2013 10:54 -0,044 860,00 37,72
16.12.2013 10:54 -0,600 860,00 516,00
16.12.2013 10:54 -4,173 860,00 3 588,83
16.12.2013 10:55 -2,946 860,00 2 533,15
16.12.2013 10:55 -4,180 860,00 3 594,80
16.12.2013 10:55 -3,944 860,00 3 392,22
16.12.2013 11:23 -4,747 883,00 4 192,00
16.12.2013 11:23 -0,010 883,00 8,83
16.12.2013 11:23 -4,683 883,00 4 134,97
16.12.2013 11:23 -0,010 883,00 8,83
16.12.2013 11:24 -2,879 883,00 2 541,78
16.12.2013 11:24 -0,974 883,00 860,27
16.12.2013 11:27 -6,697 883,00 5 913,33
16.12.2013 16:05 -6,630 842,00 5 582,43
16.12.2013 16:09 -0,020 837,00 16,74
16.12.2013 16:11 -8,149 837,00 6 820,83
16.12.2013 16:11 -0,190 837,00 159,03
16.12.2013 16:12 -1,000 837,00 837,00
16.12.2013 16:13 -0,200 837,00 167,40
16.12.2013 16:13 -0,054 837,00 44,90
16.12.2013 16:15 -0,012 836,00 10,29
16.12.2013 16:15 -0,108 836,00 90,25
16.12.2013 16:16 -19,880 836,00 16 619,46
16.12.2013 16:16 -13,370 842,00 11 257,57
16.12.2013 16:22 -0,072 841,97 60,74
16.12.2013 16:25 -1,814 839,80 1 523,60
16.12.2013 16:27 -8,115 839,80 6 815,38
16.12.2013 16:28 -0,070 839,80 59,02
16.12.2013 16:34 -10,000 839,88 8 398,80
16.12.2013 16:40 -0,010 836,00 8,36
16.12.2013 16:40 -6,996 836,00 5 848,53
16.12.2013 16:50 -9,800 835,00 8 183,00
16.12.2013 16:50 -2,994 836,00 2 503,11
16.12.2013 19:45 0,252 726,00 -182,75
16.12.2013 19:45 0,030 726,00 -21,78
16.12.2013 19:45 6,136 726,00 -4 454,44
16.12.2013 19:45 13,583 726,00 -9 861,03
17.12.2013 13:06 25,000 712,00 -17 800,00
18.12.2013 4:50 30,000 675,00 -20 250,00
18.12.2013 5:39 50,000 651,00 -32 550,00
18.12.2013 6:01 50,000 625,50 -31 275,00
18.12.2013 6:19 50,000 606,00 -30 300,00
18.12.2013 6:19 50,000 601,00 -30 050,00
18.12.2013 7:20 23,306 570,00 -13 284,53
18.12.2013 7:20 20,000 570,00 -11 400,00
18.12.2013 7:20 0,020 570,00 -11,40
18.12.2013 7:20 2,038 570,00 -1 161,49
18.12.2013 7:21 0,100 570,00 -57,00
18.12.2013 7:21 4,536 570,00 -2 585,58
18.12.2013 8:09 22,137 552,00 -12 219,73
18.12.2013 8:09 0,084 552,00 -46,19
18.12.2013 8:09 25,097 552,00 -13 853,77
18.12.2013 8:09 1,000 552,00 -552,00
18.12.2013 8:09 0,363 552,00 -200,55
18.12.2013 8:09 0,238 552,00 -131,12
18.12.2013 8:10 1,081 552,00 -596,65
18.12.2013 8:17 19,674 555,01 -10 919,40
18.12.2013 8:18 8,881 558,01 -4 955,61
18.12.2013 8:18 21,119 558,01 -11 784,69
18.12.2013 8:18 10,326 555,01 -5 730,90
18.12.2013 8:20 30,000 555,01 -16 650,30
18.12.2013 8:20 30,000 550,97 -16 529,10
18.12.2013 8:31 11,000 528,10 -5 809,10
18.12.2013 8:31 2,000 528,10 -1 056,20
18.12.2013 8:32 7,000 528,10 -3 696,70
18.12.2013 10:19 20,000 494,00 -9 880,00
18.12.2013 10:58 0,526 471,11 -247,89
18.12.2013 10:58 19,474 471,11 -9 174,31
18.12.2013 11:01 20,000 457,11 -9 142,20
19.12.2013 10:56 -13,370 666,00 8 904,42
19.12.2013 10:56 -36,045 670,00 24 150,27
19.12.2013 10:56 -2,000 670,00 1 340,00
19.12.2013 10:56 -1,049 670,00 702,91
19.12.2013 10:56 -0,056 670,00 37,52
19.12.2013 10:56 -0,025 670,00 16,73
19.12.2013 10:57 -9,645 670,00 6 462,05
19.12.2013 10:57 -0,010 670,00 6,70
19.12.2013 10:57 -8,108 670,00 5 432,39
19.12.2013 10:57 -1,000 670,00 670,00
19.12.2013 10:57 -5,000 670,00 3 350,00
19.12.2013 10:57 -1,000 670,00 670,00
19.12.2013 10:58 -1,000 670,00 670,00
19.12.2013 10:58 -8,090 670,00 5 420,17
19.12.2013 10:58 -2,000 670,00 1 340,00
19.12.2013 10:59 -1,972 670,00 1 321,27
19.12.2013 11:11 -69,651 680,00 47 362,56
19.12.2013 11:11 -5,198 680,00 3 534,59
19.12.2013 11:12 -0,118 680,00 80,10
19.12.2013 11:12 -2,033 680,00 1 382,74
19.12.2013 11:40 -7,028 690,00 4 849,52
19.12.2013 11:40 -12,400 690,00 8 556,00
19.12.2013 11:47 -57,572 690,00 39 724,48
19.12.2013 11:52 -77,000 700,00 53 900,00
19.12.2013 11:54 -6,561 710,00 4 658,52
19.12.2013 11:54 -0,150 710,00 106,50
19.12.2013 11:54 -12,888 710,00 9 150,70
19.12.2013 11:54 -20,000 710,00 14 200,00
19.12.2013 11:54 -21,711 710,00 15 414,97
19.12.2013 11:54 -0,200 710,00 142,00
19.12.2013 11:54 -4,582 710,00 3 253,53
19.12.2013 11:54 -1,000 710,00 710,00
19.12.2013 11:55 -9,907 710,00 7 033,78
19.12.2013 23:08 -22,315 720,00 16 066,90
19.12.2013 23:08 -54,685 720,00 39 373,10
19.12.2013 23:12 -77,000 730,00 56 210,00
19.12.2013 23:18 -77,000 740,00 56 980,00
20.12.2013 4:42 -77,000 750,00 57 750,00
20.12.2013 5:31 -7,293 760,00 5 542,34
20.12.2013 5:31 -0,062 760,00 47,02
20.12.2013 5:31 -58,366 760,00 44 358,48
26.12.2013 17:38 -100,000 809,98 80 998,00
26.12.2013 19:12 -2,853 819,98 2 339,64
26.12.2013 19:12 -1,788 819,98 1 466,25
26.12.2013 19:12 -95,359 819,98 78 192,11
(still doesnt mean I will agree with every post of yours)
Well,
that I do not require even from my employees...
and BTW, I dont daily trade because I am horrible trader, I managed to do few of good trades (being lucky) and so many bad trades....
Being full time does not mean to trade daily. I can quite well feed my family with a couple of trades per year, provided that they are (mostly) right. That is why I am so fascinated about the trendline, it is like an invisible hand that turns the probabilities in your favor by presenting a low risk exit point. Then just adjust the buyback to fit your risk/reward preference. I never sell a majority of the coins so I can in the extreme case wait forever the buyback. Of course I would rather that it come before March as I calculated, estimated, predicted and hope.
659.
Post 4202847 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
I think you didn't understand what I asked for, I can post a made up data as well, I can tell from a screen shot whether you really do and believe what you post here (short term) around, or you are just a troll and try to move sentiment to your desired position.... because you act as a consultant and a trading adviser...
As you should understand by now, by checking how long it takes for me to enter and exit a trade (from the valuable info I posted which - properly analyzed - would greatly boost your skills also), I cannot offer such a service which wakes up all small traders at the instant I make a move
Besides I don't understand this consultant thing, I haven't sold such services for years really, nor intend to. All the contribution here is free and buyer beware, as with everybody else's. I honestly believe that people should pay more attention to the opinions of successful people, and have taken some provocations as opportunities to show proof of the success. This is a second time (only) that I have posted a complete record of trades in the ballpark of
BTC1k, and will remain so. Keep your apology if you want, and believe it will earn you better karma. I will not put you on ignore, because I like your posts, but I will kindly ask you to ignore me as you seemingly cannot take my facts as they are and develop a conversation based on them.
If anyone wonders why my post quality is so low in this thread, it is not because of my lack of willingness to contribute, it is because mainly the fools reply to my posts and the smart people do not pick the ball.
660.
Post 4203076 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
Meanwhile I feel I want to divulge some trading from Gox. This account was freshly activated in 13.12. and not used for arbitrage, so it reveals some of my actual trading skill:
SELL-1 13.-16.12. -379,997 342 097,075 900,26
BUY-1 17.-18.12. 554,946 -323 856,498 583,58 -0,351765657
SELL-2 19.-26.12. -972,091 713 878,256 734,37 0,258391254
These are the totals/averages. Given the conditions in the buyback phase BUY-1, I think 584 was a reasonable price, resulting in 50% increase of coins. I bought all the way down and my lowest bids were not hit (hence only 324k invested of the 342k sold). The SELL-2 is now a little underwater but I am prepared to sell more, in fact I did sell 200 at an average 815 a couple days ago.
How are the others doing (in the light of figures, not feelings
)?
Unchanged
It was 9.12.2013 that I made a new trading plan based on a "secular" bear market (in Bitcoin context something that lasts at least a month). Before that I had kept the position quite constant for a few days, doing some profitable arbitrage between China/BS.
First I drew a downtrend from the high of 30.11. and aimed to sell when we were above the trend. This resulted in a whole week of selling until 15.12. Then as it started to look that it could tip over any moment, I tried to bet with Goat and issued the now-famous prediction that it would crash to 450. It did crash, but my mistake was to underestimate the magnitude of the crash. I bought a large portion back at 670 (BS) when it was stabilizing. Then next day it crashed some more, resulting in a practical jackpot (as you can see above).
Then I was a little bit too eager to sell, correctly calling the local tops in 625 and 666 but failing to sell in the dips (because of the experiences of the previous one). Now it has crept higher, and I have sold more, bringing the average sell price rather close to what the price is now. This trade is for the long haul, because there are a myriad of events that can bring the exchange rate to 300-400 and 400-500 would happen even without anything special. What I cannot know is the exact timing. Now I feel a similarity to 15.12. in many indicators, and will be the first to sell more when the ball starts rolling.
661.
Post 4208639 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
If this consolidation continues for another week until Jan. 6th, bears are going to be treading on REALLY thin ice, imo.
Depends on the timeframe. Personally I expect the final capitulation in Feb +/- 1 month, so one week does not matter much. Perhaps there should be a different thread for people who trade on daily, weekly and monthly timeframe. Or less slander. If March passes without hitting $400, then the chances of seeing it again are slim.
662.
Post 4209173 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.48h):
If this consolidation continues for another week until Jan. 6th, bears are going to be treading on REALLY thin ice, imo.
Depends on the timeframe. Personally I expect the final capitulation in Feb +/- 1 month, so one week does not matter much. Perhaps there should be a different thread for people who trade on daily, weekly and monthly timeframe. Or less slander. If March passes without hitting $400, then the chances of seeing it again are slim.
Well my premise is this one. A lot of new fiat will be hitting the exchanges in January. People want to get in NOW given what happened between Jan to Dec of 2013. Especially if the slow trend up continues.
My timeframe is longer. Bitcoin has been around for 5 years, and it has always been a terrific enlightenment for those who have been ripe for it. The knowledge about bitcoin has grown exponentially and investment into it has grown exponentially. I expect this to continue and every year be on average 12 times more glorious (as it has been), until everybody uses bitcoin (which will happen in 2016-17 at this rate).
Everything that has happened since 2009 is captured by the trend and its variations, and will be.
There has been some regularities in the growth that I have researched, some of it is published, some not. I believe knowing them gives an edge in trading, and so far it has proven to be good. I have several million dollars of my own money that I could use to purchase bitcoins but choose not to. Not at this price. I am taking a large, calculated risk, with entry points set according to mathematical model for the rest of the year. I even gave the average sell price a few posts ago. Now there is no need to comment that I am doing bad every time the price rises $10. You could as well post about how
good I am doing for the reason that I always have more bitcoins than fiat anyway
So, after smoking the
best the world has to offer, I again feel that taking a break from this thread is in order.
See you at $500. And don't fall in the bull trap
663.
Post 5354583 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.19h):
In these times of struggle, I can only
Ooohh, upon waking up, just in time to
celebrate my new castle.
664.
Post 5355884 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.19h):
I wish if I had more FIAT in stamp now.... I would be really happy, I waited for this day for 3 weeks now and I used all the $45K I had there
Mine was invested during the last hours at midprice $448. So the 2-month long quest is over. Gained about
BTC400, though my loss of
BTC250 in Mt.Gox should be debited from this amount.
Bitcoin, you may now rise!
I will go to my castle and occasionally post if there is something important.
665.
Post 5382413 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.20h):
Nice buy on stamp. This train aint stopping for a day or so.
Generally it goes in so called "waves", which means that it will next hit 500. This enables the experienced traders to make money on the markets at the expense of the inexperienced.
666.
Post 5384135 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.20h):
It is going down - 500 to be tested soon.
Reason: we are not that much below the long-term trend, so given the sentiment, we are "hanging in the air" when the solid ground is in 400-500, below that is a steal and above that is hopes.
667.
Post 5505428 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.23h):
Will we break 700? Strong support and building at 700.
If today is going to be anything like yesterday, that 2k is toast.
No. We are trying to
sell that 2k.
668.
Post 5505977 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.23h):
Rpietila, I am keen to hear what your predictions are for the next week or so ?
I cannot predict such short timespans.
The biggest market mover is the people who thought they had bitcoins in Mt.Gox. When they replace (which I believe is going on), the price can rise a lot. We are talking about 100,000s of coins of extra demand.
669.
Post 5545840 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
I am surprised what kind of sissies you are.. Seemingly never had a million dollars yourselves...
Satoshi is welcome to
my castle if he needs protection.
670.
Post 5646931 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.26h):
When consensus is bearish (everyone has sold already), it is time to buy. Like now, I see that there is very little downside and explosive upside in as little as 2 months.
Btw. I am in the process of coauthoring (with sirius) an e-book about "History of Bitcoin Economy". What would you like to have discussed?
671.
Post 5655727 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.26h):
When actual risk is swamped by volaility, those who discount risk/reward on the basis of volatility will grossly overestimate risk, and those who estimate it more accurately have a huge advantage. They will buy more and at higher prices, and therefore hold more when appreciation occurs. They will hold through the volatility. I think that many "weak hands" in bitcoin are the result of mistaking risk and vol. This may be the only advantage which technical people have over wall street types: They understand the fundamental risks better, and are less likely to mistake them with volatility.
So much wisdom from this poster +1.
I, for one, do not regard volatility as a risk at all, rather an opportunity to generate extra gains (if you are into trading).
As my planned expenses for the year 2014 are only about 10% of my assets (even in absence of any income), it does not matter what the BTC fiat price does in the short term, 1-2 years. The main risk I am concerned about with it is total loss, and that can be hedged against with reasonable but not overcautious diversification. Keeping 50%+ in bitcoins is reasonable because its historical return has been about 1000% per year.
The people with this mindset have done the best with Bitcoin historically. Going all-in is risky, if you have sudden expenses or are moody. Having less than 50% bitcoins, you miss out on gains
that I posit are actually risk-free.
672.
Post 5655793 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.26h):
When consensus is bearish (everyone has sold already), it is time to buy. Like now, I see that there is very little downside and explosive upside in as little as 2 months.
Btw. I am in the process of coauthoring (with sirius) an e-book about "History of Bitcoin Economy". What would you like to have discussed?
That is great!!! When is the e-book coming out?
Are you going to discuss potential government attempts to undermine BTC, and the fact that governments may see their abilities and efforts as very difficult to regulate and/or stifle bitocin given the P2P nature of it... which will cause governments to likely employ covert tactics to attempt to undermine bitcoin (and or to attempt to keep it in check) while appearing that they are NOT attempting to undermine bitcoin? Also, another aspect of government is that various members of government are very confused about bitcoin.. and do NOT really know what to do.. b/c bitcoin seems so small and insignificant... relative to other markets.... such as gold or fiat currencies....
Also, interesting to know about decisions within the government about how to treat confiscated coins... could they use these coins to manipulate BTC, and have governments considered these kinds of tactics.
I think earliest this April. I have carefully selected the title to be "history" so that I would not need to speculate on the future too much. I see a void in Bitcoin's history, and I have always wanted to be historian. Well, as I am already a Bitcoin economist, it makes sense to write about something I know and am interested in
Also Bitcoin advances so quickly (exchange rate 23.5% per month on average, userbase a little slower) that an attempt to write something comprehensive will definitely remain just that - an attempt
This would be just 20 pages of text and 20 pages of footnotes, sources and methodology. When it's out, perhaps I can team up with someone else to write a sequel from a different angle. Sirius was kind to join me in this first one, since he has been in it since the beginning, and together we can patch up the whole history so far.
673.
Post 5656228 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.26h):
20 pages (plus notes) does not seem a lot to cover 'the whole history so far' - I would be surprised if you can be so succinct. Once you start, I would hazard a guess it will be a tad longer.
At least I try
674.
Post 5657026 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.26h):
There is no reason to assume that a completely voluntary society would have any less competition for social status than our present society. By imposing status costs on free riders and rewarding status to contributors, there is every reason to expect that the net level of public goods would be just as high if not higher without a monopoly government. The difference would be in how those goods were administered and their composition. Contributors would have much more control over how their contributions were distributed with a result of more efficient administration.
Wow.
675.
Post 5658076 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.26h):
Billyjoelallen,
'Freeriders' are not a problem (not the small ones - technically anyone with no income is a free rider!). we have a massive surplus of work, everyone wants a job, but they are not needed, because the innovation we have seen in the 20th and 21st century has been immense.
But there is obviously a problem, this is that the income that a robot generates does not go to the poor guy it replaced, it goes all to his boss.
this is why today wealth disparity is greater than ever.
The wealth disparity a) has always been with us, because it is a prerequisite for a functioning society and/or economy, b) does not matter so much as we are in many ways living in an abundance. Hipster lifestyle costs only a few trinkets, coffee, and digital goods. We already have an overabundance of physical goods in many places.
The current power structures hinder us from moving to the next level, globally. Releasing ourselves from them, quickly solves many of the problems, and also the amount of human labor globally would be reduced by 75-90% and replaced by living.
I am not very good in writing about these things though..
676.
Post 5765088 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
Just 6 months ago it would have been insane to think that Bitcoin could be 600 in the next bottom.
Perhaps after 6 months, it will be 3000 AND people bored and complaining and scared that it might go to 2500.
677.
Post 5779134 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
First of all, you seem to have some difficulties understanding basic principles and that is we grow up as a product of culture and communities, and some communities are stronger than others. If for some reason, instead of watching bugs bunny, you grew up watching fox news, then you may need to be educated into social norms... b/c they taught you badly.
Some jokes are just not funny.
678.
Post 5802309 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
Number of bitcoin addresses (excluding dust) is still around 500,000 if reddit is to be believed. This has a long way to run yet.
About 1.34 million unless your definition of "dust" is way different than mine (<1m
BTC).
Source.
679.
Post 5891969 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
The last two years, BitStamp have never fallen below 3 months low. I don't think that will happen in the next two years either. 2014 will be a great year for Bitcoin.
Bold added
680.
Post 5907629 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
How can you transfer something that does not exist? Makes no sense.
It's like light. You quantify it as photons, but actually it consists of waves.
681.
Post 5951500 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
Just when I thought the sentiment could not become worse, it does.
Buy when the sentiment is hostile, sell when it is CCMFtodamoon.
Strong buy to bitcoin at 500.
682.
Post 5951712 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
a more liquid market will not require hoarders. but liquidity will not be self-supporting until the market value is much higher. meanwhile, it is just like hdbuck's little beetle. we need more hoarding in order for the market value to reach a level where the usability as currency is improved. more market value motivates entrepreneurs, motivates awareness, motivates participating in the economy.
Because hoarders participate in this most valuable service to the community, they
deserve the reward. If you are jealous, how about joining us here and now at a reasonable price of $0.82 per share?*
*1 share = all bitcoins existing today divided equally to all people = 1.64mBTC
683.
Post 5973194 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
And, sometimes in this thread, I am amazed by the quantity of FUD and naysayers participated herein b/c in reality a forum such as this should have a larger percentage of bulls and circle jerkers... instead we are continuously dealing with the negativity .. and maybe some of them are legitimate bears investing in BTC and trying to profit off of shorts, etc etc... but others seem to be engaged in a sort of sabotage attempt, manipulation and disinformation campaign that seems to be coming from another deeper and eviler place and yes seems likely that they are being paid by someone... Maybe NOT government agencies, but more likely by financial institutions.. but there could be some government entities that are motivated and or funded by banking-type interests? which we know that this frequently occurs when wars are fought over oil and resources.. the USA people do NOT necessarily profit in any kind of meaningful way as compared with the billions in profits that go into private hands of the filthy rich.
You are right. The cost to employ a sockpuppet is so little that it does not even count. I had a troll in my thread who admitted that before getting banned
Facts are that many months of time has passed since November and almost the whole world knows about Bitcoin now (only when you know, you can buy), and it takes on average 12-24 months for people to buy. So just look at an explosive adoption peaking in 12-24 months, which means millions of users this year and 10s of millions next year. Or more. And the absolutely ridiculous number of bitcoins in existence - 11 million, if you discount Satoshi coins and lost coins. For a $500,000, which is nothing, you can buy 1/10,000 of
ALL BITCOINS IN EXISTENCE.
So the reason why the price is cheap is: somebody wants to do it, but they cannot coerce people to sell if they believe that it goes to the moon. So they instill as much fear as possible. Pretty well done..
Just remember - you only make money if you BUY in this kind of situations and SELL when it is toppy. Other way round you are sheep, baa baa.
684.
Post 5981579 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
How sad that people that most probably, this being a Bitcoin forum, have their individuality in high regard, engage in groupthink, feeding back feelings of contempt for Jorge ending in the preposterous certainty that he is a paid troll.
Fear.
Very good. When everyone is in fear, I check if the price is such that I want to buy or not (I never sold so much, but can munch an additional
BTC1,000 if need be) and then just enjoy the gains. Thank you.
685.
Post 5982627 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.30h):
2011 repeating ? will 2014 be the year of the depression ? I don't get what is happening but even if you try to explain it to me it just wont make sense...
If 2014 is a year of depression, it will be similar to 2012: Only 200% gain per year, ending the year at $2,000-$3,000 and bitcoin is dead as always.
686.
Post 5989535 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):
If someone who owns
BTC100 or more wants to insure it by buying a put option with strike@400, you know whom to contact!
687.
Post 6041019 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
You will see the end of this bear market by these following indicators.
1) The price will go lower then most expected
2) The price will remain low longer then most expected
3) The loudest and the most enthusiastic bulls will start to blame bitcoin and everyone involved for the situation and then write dramatic final speeches of them leaving.
If you will get tired of seeing indicator 3, then it's time to buy, not before.
We have already met all three sufficiently for the price to rise.... at least 1 and 2, which seem the most potentially relevant to this lame-ish description of prerequisites.
Regarding #2 we have been between $420 and $599 for about 3 weeks... that is quite a long time.
Actually, regarding #3, this is NOT any kind of necessary prerequisite
No, it isn't so, sorry.
"400 is the bottom" has been the most popular belief and fools are still cheering for bitcoin going up. There has to be something stronger, that will shake the fools. Always exit an market when fools enter, and always enter the market when fools exit. And don't ever enter the market, that everyone is talking about, or else you will be the fool. Right now there is a lot of agony from those who bought at the top of the last bubble, but there has to be total desperation with dramatic finishing speeches etc. Then you know that the market is set to buy in.
+1
The market is awash with people who definitely have no coin but apparently are very interested in it, otherwise they would not spend their time talking about it. Hence,
- They want to buy bitcoins => Bitcoin price goes up
- They are paid trolls by some who want to disturb the scene => The puppetmasters want to buy => Bitcoin price goes up.
Never does a bear have any teeth to force the price down. The bear can only buy, which makes the price go up.
(the converse for bulls ofc)
It is quite simple to invest when you know the rule that
it is the least risky to enter when there is most bearishness around. Almost nobody
has any coins to sell, and every bearish post is a proof of craving to buy lower, and if this is not granted, panic buy higher.
688.
Post 6047979 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
Volume has been missing for weeks. That's the problem. No buyers. You have to have buyers and sellers for volume. Sellers are in attendance.
Buyers may be missing because Gox showed that it is not risk-free to send cash to exchanges.
(The centralized exchange model is utter idiocy and something needs to be done.) Sellers are missing because there is not so much selling pressure really. Who wants to sell cheaply when all indicators point up in anything longer than 1 month timescale..
On that note, I predict we get another healthy bounce between $403-$409. This will probably send us up again, squeezing a few shorts. I don't think we will get up past $475 (300 Daily EMA now acting like resistance). But where ever we bounce to, we will be coming back down a day or three after that to make a real attack on $400.
Once we go through $400, I expect we get another bounce before $380. Rinse and repeat.
Unless some real buyers show up, we will be going below that before the 15th, in my opinion.
Okay, I go to my castle with probably no Internet access (deliberate holiday) for the rest of the week. I agree with you in the analysis in other counts, but in my opinion 375 will hold more probably than not
689.
Post 6128083 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.34h):
Anyone notice that now $458 is compared to Mt. Everest, by a Bull! My estimate that $400 will hold is back up to 60%.
FWIW mine is 70%.
690.
Post 6128636 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.34h):
I've been at 80% all along tbh - might nudge that up to 90% soon.
Mine's 100%
I can bet against at 90% or especially at 100% odds
691.
Post 6158431 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):
After BTC will hit 9$ it will never rise again., and became history.
Butbut, how quickly do I have to buy before the last node of the network is closed?
ADD: Sorry, I was panicking. I forgot that I realized already more than a year ago that I alone can keep Bitcoin up + its price at something between $0.1-$1. Multiply by 100 similarly devoted people and do the math
692.
Post 6158881 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):
After BTC will hit 9$ it will never rise again., and became history.
Butbut, how quickly do I have to buy before the last node of the network is closed?
ADD: Sorry, I was panicking. I forgot that I realized already more than a year ago that I alone can keep Bitcoin up + its price at something between $0.1-$1. Multiply by 100 similarly devoted people and do the math ...on your 'quality' thread you just lectured folks on not trading on 'hope', now you are talking about devotion. Even for you Risto, that's quite a semantic leap.
Anyway, what are you doing here...I thought you weren't going to post here until we were back over the ATH.
Popped into rally the troops
I just don't know what to answer to spicy women..
693.
Post 6159616 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):
I think that the chase for institutional money will be the wonderful unicorn of bitcoin, that will always stay close but never caught. There will be officials like Lawsky who try to pump BTC for their personal gain and there will be plenty of promises that "just couple of more steps, and we're there..." but there will always be "unforeseen circumstances" that'll stop the red carpets from rolling.
...and while BTC waits for the red carpets, it continues its boring 23.5% per month ascent that it has been doing 5.25 years, institutional money or not. Yawn.
694.
Post 6159807 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):
This is not a chart reversal pattern, not yet anyway. The way $400 fell so easily makes me think that there is more blood to come. Why head fake @ $380 when you can do it at $350? or $250? 15 minute chart looks like a mini version of the $710 whale. $382 will be retested. It looks like a false bottom so far. The enemy of the manipulator is time.
I agree we should see some more dumping, to the mid 300's. Its very rare for a massive support to fail and not overshoot a good deal.. $383 is nothing.
It took a full 2 weeks for 400 to fall, and the support zone is actually in 382-384 from the previous bottoms. More likely than not your dream will not come true, sorry.
695.
Post 6161512 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):
Say what.....36% voters think btc over 500 on april 20th ? Talk about delusional.
That is soonish, and I did not vote so. But surely when it snaps back, 500 is the first line to fall, not the last. My forecast stands: "if 382 holds, 500 is breached by the end of month".
696.
Post 6161893 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):
Who still remembers 2010?
..Bitcoin price crashed intraday from $0.444 to as low as $0.383 before recovering to $0.40.
6 months later:
Price rose from $7 to $32 in a week.
Just add 3 zeros and relax.
697.
Post 6162435 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):
your first prediction of flash crash to 400 was right but your second prediction on the reversal was and is wrong, you have been calling a reversal from 550 all the way down to $400, sadly we broke that 400.
now there is 2 scary facts, China is really closing accounts on the 15th of April and this is confirmed, now Australia will be closing all Bitcoin business related accounts on the 2nd of may; now it is unclear for me how there is a chance of a reversal !! till then, I don't know if we reached the bottom yet...
My approach to predictions: If I make a 50/50 prediction, I aim to be "right" exactly 50% of the time. If I make 70/30 (that was perhaps my feeling after the Feb-25 crash) I still need to be "wrong" every third time, otherwise I am playing too safe. If you don't understand this, better not listen to me at all.
Rational investors discount the future to the present, and all information commonly available is already priced in. Now, Bitcoin is very far from an efficient market, and therefore there is a mispricing going on. I am moving funds to exchange
if nothing else helps to correct/profit from the situation.
I think this is the biggest reason why the reversal/recovery is sluggish: whales like me are scared as hell to send the million$ back to exchanges, no matter if they were originally earned by selling bitcoins or if it is new money. It is the shadow of Gox again.
Please somebody sell me bitcoins at $389, off-exchange,
BTC100 minimum. Please.
698.
Post 6162608 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):
you are sooo full of shit! =) ^i'll sell you as many as you want@ $389!
I doubt you have
BTC100 considering your posting history, but just in case I'm mistaken, send as many as you like
here and PM your wire info. Price is the Bitstamp last trade for each of the transfers.
699.
Post 6162857 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):
you are sooo full of shit! =) ^i'll sell you as many as you want@ $389!
I doubt you have
BTC100 considering your posting history, but just in case I'm mistaken, send as many as you like
here and PM your wire info. Price is the Bitstamp last trade for each of the transfers.
cash talks shit walks!!! =) it's me fucker, i'm calling you out on your bullshit(->just like the $700 BTC you re-nigged on)
SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!!
Yeah.
This is what I was saying weeks ago - Bitcoin's street price will never go below 400. You will not now, not ever, be able to actually buy them as many as you want, safely, at that price or lower. Only by wiring to these exchanges and taking huge haircuts every once in a while, you are able to gamble if you can get any coins. Not currently a very bright situation but just in case someone wants to prove me wrong, the address is there.
PS. No need to reply, punk. A full bitcoin is something that you dream of.
700.
Post 6170780 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.36h):
and by confidence , I mean confidence in the exchanges (rpitiela said something similar yesterday)
Yes, I think this is the main issue with Bitcoin now. All other news has been quite positive if you just look at the news, not the price.
Luckily people forget easily and this will not delay the uptrend for years, just months.
I am on the opinion that dipping below 382-400 support, even temporarily, has prolonged the plateau before uptrend.
If we visit <380 area for any longer time, the uptrend is further postponed.
Nothing has happened that would destroy Bitcoin's long term prospects, so I find this a buy zone and am buying. If you want to sell, PM me.
701.
Post 6175428 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.36h):
b) The price drops to the level where mostly only those hold up the price, who are ready to go down with the ship. For this to happen there will be a 1w volume record and the price will rest there for weeks or more with a very low volume. A good indicator for that would be some of the most enthusiastic and loudest bulls in this forum, who will start to rant and blame everyone for selling their coins and ruining heaven for everyone. As long as there is hope for fools, without any real reason for hope, then this isn't the bottom yet.
I bought my coins today, perhaps you should also..?
702.
Post 6177377 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.36h):
AFAIK the reversal from ~Dec/19 to ~Jan/6 has an obvious explantion: Huobi concluded that they could still operate via bank accounts instead of the big 3rd party processor (Alibaba?), and their clients gradually migrated to that medium. In fact their volume increased after Dec/16, perhaps because OKCoin and BTC-China clients moved in.
Shit, just bought 900 LTC on market by mistake
BTW newbie question: what does consolidation mean in this context?
I realized I have probably never said it - I love you all! This is such community and thread, much wow!!1 <3
703.
Post 6186117 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.36h):
So, since you have popped in, how long til we get a head of steam up again and this all calms down (to enable a base for a decent rise)?
I note and agree with your points about exchange confidence keeping money off the exchanges in any depth, but greed will surely conquer wariness at some point.
I would welcome your thoughts on timescale back to a decent bull market - a month, three... longer?
In my baseline scenario, we close April at above 500, and 1000 will be breached in July.
Then there is the slower scenario but I am quite hopeful that 2014 will be a year of a new ATH nevertheless.
As everyone (including me) expect a 2-3 month plateau, perhaps that is
not what will happen
704.
Post 6186865 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.36h):
I don't know if anyone has noticed but the long term charts do not look good...even in log scale.
Everybody is entitled to an opinion. Mine is that
long-term charts have never looked this good if you are looking for a low-risk entry point. November-2011 comes close.
705.
Post 6189539 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.36h):
Also every day there are 3,600 new freshly mined bitcoins, and part of them are sold to pay electricity bills, try to recover money invested on the miner, investing on more mining power or present/future panickers.
That means it is needed up to $1.5 million daily deposits to maintain the price stable. (Actually less because some will hold no matter what, so you can guess something like 25%-50% of $1.5 million)
I would put it this way:
Only about $0.5 million of the daily bitcoins generation enters the market. Of that, the following are interested:
20 G20 countries
50 midsize countries
70 small countries
70 very small countries
500 billionaires
10,000 100-millionaires
1 million 10-millionaires
30 million millionaires
500 large corporations
500,000 midsize corporations
500 million Europeans with <1M net worth
300 million N. Americans -..-
300 million S. Americans -..-
200 million ex-Soviet -..-
1,700 million in Indian peninsula
1,600 million in China
1 billion in other parts of Asia
500 million more in Asia
1 million existing bitcoin investors thinking it is cheap
It is mathematically certain that everybody cannot get many bitcoins. The list above included so many entities that it is certain that
some of them realize that acting before others is an advantage, like any one reading this has realized. Then they start to want the bitcoins, and as the daily interest exceeds $0.5 million, the price starts to rise.
706.
Post 6190034 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.36h):
some people are worried of being a 450 bag holder.
Okay, let's give it 100 days!
(Anyone who bought at 450 is not worried of anything. Some who entered at 1000 and doubled down at 600-800 may be, but they have already shed a lot of coins so after 100 days we should be at about 4000)
Haha, bulls feel the need to
refute such accusations. When they don't refute, just ridicule, it's time to sell
707.
Post 6190487 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.36h):
But be honest, you have so many coins i'm guessing you could probably crash the market if you wanted. You have a vested interest in not doing this, but you must be very concerned.
Perhaps I could, but it would not remain crashed for very long. Trying to
buy the amount of coins that I have, in exchange or outside, is so very difficult that I prefer to keep mine, thank you
(I am still interested in buying minimum
BTC100 at a time.)
708.
Post 6190682 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.36h):
I have been a miner since Nov 2011, and I work in a very geek orientated environment, there are over 100 working in my team. They are all tech geeks and out of these people only maybe 3 or 4 have mined bitcoin.
I dont believe you about having 100 miners on your team
Luckily he did not claim so
709.
Post 6201872 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Does your valuation take into account the fact that Bitcoin mining as we know it will collapse very soon?
If that were true - which it is not - the large holders would subsidize it or the miners would change the rules.
What's wrong with Bitcoin mining?
710.
Post 6209515 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Or maybe this one, but this would mean we aren't even rallying right now.
I was also a bear until 25. Feb, but then I bought at $448. We are now at the same price. Are you risking to be a worse trader than me?
711.
Post 6210724 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Holy fuck.
The idea of clicking a mouse once and trapping all the shorts on the way to $600 (Bitstamp) is getting
more and more profitable as the price has risen because of other players. Regards: "The Man Who Owned 25% Of BTC China Bid Orderbook & 10% Of Bitstamp Bid Orderbook During His Elephant Walk In Bitcoin Porcelain Shop"
712.
Post 6210842 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
By the way I found some gold from the time when I was a bear and TERA was a bull:
It looks like more than just a rally. It's a huge fking bidwall, 8 million new dollars on the books, in front of the bottom, overnight. It just rose from a total of 15.5M to 16.5M as I was typing this, almost to ATH. Now the book looks completely warped into the bulls favor. How are you going to get through that? It's going to take an immense pressure, and that huge bid could be could be regenerating the whole time.
Bullshit, all bullshit. Big players want out. So they fake the market with the very USD that they received yesterday from the first wave of selling. How many times this has to happen before you realize? Ask Loaded for details, which he unfortunately cannot give you
.
713.
Post 6210933 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Holy fuck.
The idea of clicking a mouse once and trapping all the shorts on the way to $600 (Bitstamp) is getting
more and more profitable as the price has risen because of other players. Regards: "The Man Who Owned 25% Of BTC China Bid Orderbook & 10% Of Bitstamp Bid Orderbook During His Elephant Walk In Bitcoin Porcelain Shop"
I talked about that plan in here a few days ago, that a few nice buys could trigger a lot of these shorted 10000
BTC stop loss. With such a thin orderbook, it would be stupid not to try if someone has the money for it.
My thinking goes about like this:
- I am a little too small to do it confidently myself, and don't want to collude b/c it is sort of unethical
- There are bigger guys than me
- Doing it is no rocket science
- It will be done by them
- My (and especially your) strategy should be to (1) frontrun, (2) buy low, sell high methodically or (3) hold.
I don't believe (4) piggyback
works. I am using (2) because I don't need to have market information. (1) is more difficult but of course more profitable.
714.
Post 6211002 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Wow look at the orderbook on stamp and the massive buys yesterday. Still expecting it to trend into $400?
Based on the trendline analysis, yes. We have many long, agonizing weeks to go until it gets to be improbable according to the trendline. It is normal to have rallies based on false hopes, it is part of the capitulation process. [- -]
When it finally hits $400, you do not want to buy. You fear for it going to $200 and you losing 50% overnight.
Then it is the time to buy (emphasis original) Zoom 2 months forward:
Not that I felt any obligation to disclose, but I am happy to say that I finally managed to source
BTC200 @400 off-exchange!
715.
Post 6211366 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Not that I felt any obligation to disclose, but I am happy to say that I finally managed to source
BTC200 @400 off-exchange!
If this is with a stranger, how do you do escrow.. or trust that the BTC's will come through? Do you pay first, do you do it in person, do you do it without banks? don't you have a fee for the wiring of that much fiat?
Because I am rpietila the Great, the other guy pays first. Unless he is even greater, like Goat or NewLiberty; then I pay first.
It is possible to send in pieces also, like what I did when trading goxBTC for BTC. At most, the other guy had
BTC150 at risk although the total was much bigger.
With escrow there is the problem that the escrow person would need to more trustable than me, and they are becoming hard to find
I am always open to suggestions, who to add to my "possible escrow intermediaries" list!
716.
Post 6211559 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
I think the more reasonable conclusion is that the turnaround in price causes also the number of transactions to go up. This could be analysed further so that we do not fall on the
false causation trap, which would be embarrassing.
717.
Post 6211809 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
And then if you have more than $10K in fiat, isn't that a reportable event... ? There may also be bank fees, too? Who will carry $80K cash to starbucks?
Answering these questions goes above my free consultation, sorry.
718.
Post 6211892 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
There are ways and means to do everything if you either A) have the money or B) know the right people.
You can hardly A) if you don't B), and you lose A) if you don't B). That's why the odd-few bitcoiners who have managed to A), should come to Malla castle for the trainings on how to retain their bitcoins in the face of all the threats against them.
719.
Post 6212294 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
But I don't see how regular whale can get any value of "squeezing shorts".
Whales want to increase their BTC position, because they are accumulating, and/or because they can derive a profit.
The important part is to sucker the other people to short in the first place. This is very risky, because they have to buy back the bitcoins later at a price that may be very high if nobody wants to sell the coins for cheap. At this first stage the whale buys the shorted coins.
When the squeeze comes, the price shoots up, the sucker-shorter must buy back, and the whale can be the one providing the coins or not. In the first case he makes fiat profit, and the second case he is happy to have increased the number of his stash for cheap.
In economic theory, shorting makes the market more efficient and reduces volatility. In practice, this is not so. Don't short.
720.
Post 6212317 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
This is a selling tool to get guys to sign up for $500 courses or to be dependent upon so called experts and it works in almost any technical field... Sometimes it is well worth the $500, but not always...
$500 won't get you in sorry
We are talking about people who
realistically need this kind of services, and they have more than
BTC57. I don't mean any offense here.
EDIT: That still sounds smug to the extreme - let me explain more. The intention of the training is to gather people whose bitcoins are worth $500k or more at present (
BTC1,000) and the facility will expand when the bitcoin price goes up, so that the lower threshold in bitcoins decreases, but in dollars it keeps going up, unless many similar facilities spring up and offer better services more cheaply. As far as I know, this is the first one with this kind of idea, but definitely not the last. Perhaps not many feel they need the service, but that is my business risk.
It will anyway be a general purpose luxury country hotel and my holiday home.
721.
Post 6212638 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
("price" = exchange rate in Bitstamp, or a western exch with highest volume iff Bitstamp closes)
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
I will add mine shortly in a separate post so you can quote this one if you like to join
722.
Post 6212696 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 15%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 25%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 55%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 85%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 80%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 70%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 60%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 50%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 35%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 25%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 15%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
723.
Post 6212759 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
How shall we give probabilities? percentages?
Preferably like I just did, by including the text for readability.
What's the point of making predictions when the main factors involved creating the price can't be currently predicted?
The exercise would force you, for once, to make a post that can be mathematically analyzed.
If it could not be predicted, why is it that I constantly make money by predicting it? I am here to help you, so unless you get paid really well for distracting, how about start listening!
724.
Post 6212870 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Basically the current trend is a sinking ship. Ever since DECEMBER when the chinese millionaires who were trading on btcchina found out there was some problem with bitcoin and they ditched for good, never to return. What did return was some lower class traders and a bunch of fake volume on this new exchange called Huobi to make things look the same but they really weren't.
Even if Huobi doesn't get closed the larger trend will still continue after people realize that the volume was fake anyway. It may appear that the Chinese news effects the markets, but this is all sentiment based, causing alternating waves of boom/bust and hype/despair - a cycle within a larger downtrend. Nothing that happens in China will even affect the larger downtrend. China is all a mirage, and the downtrend was incepted in December.
So it's been doomed since then to have this slow and controlled bubble deflation. Now just look at the volume and the orderbooks on Bitstamp and btce - it is nowhere near enough to support a market of this size. So we are just on this endless slow slide down till the volume is regained - probably around $180. Long slow bleed to $180 is the current trend. The CURRENT trend...
That is of course, unless something intervenes. If new trustworthy markets opened and gain volume, then the trend will be reversed more quickly, and the target will be much higher.
Have you, or have you not, considered that
crypto is better than fiat, and is therefore
replacing fiat like Internet replaced so many things?
All your talk is nullified when you consider this matter for even a short while.
There is a limited number of bitcoins, and if you get them cheaper, it is good for you.
Of course if all your trades that you claim were real, that is good for you too. Sadly I don't believe it, because you only claim them afterwards, and when looking at your actual predictions, they are ambiguous and wrong. See my post a few pages ago.
725.
Post 6212949 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
The market today does not give more than 12% probability of that happening; probably much less than that.
That's why I am buying and telling others to buy.
Bitcoin has a long and glorious history that its price has had nothing to do with long-term expected value. My estimate of scenario-probability-weighted discounted 2020 value of 1 bitcoin is about $500,000 and the fact that the majority of players in the market think differently, is my advantage.
726.
Post 6218400 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Since it is free, why not:
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 20%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 40%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 10%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 3%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 0.1%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 0.01%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 0.001%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 0.0001%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0.00001%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0.000001%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
These numbers were picked while wearing by bull mask.
I am sure you can make some very profitable bets with the fellow posters, who have given quite different odds!
I propose geometric mean, such that:
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
=> sqrt(0.01*0.7) = 8.4%.
You pay 1 / 8.4% = 11.952 units if you lose
He pays 1 / 91.6% = 1.092 units if you win.
Normalized, this is 10.948 : 1.
Both people in the wager have about 8 times better odds than they estimated as current, wonder why there is so little of this!
727.
Post 6218779 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
You're more of a bear than my cute avatar
My bear-masked estimates are
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
Why do you waste your time in the speculation forum then? There are other threads where the research is made:
The problem I see here is that, while a great savings/investment plan, it seems to be assuming that BTC will just keep going up indefinitely at some radical rate of growth.
Here is a log chart of bitcoin's historical market capitalization, along with what I refer to as its (adoption-based) "Metcalfe Value." This chart empirically shows two things:
(a) bitcoin's market cap has grown roughly proportional to the square of these two chosen measures of "adoption."
(b) "adoption" (based on these two measures) has grown roughly exponentially for five years.
Will bitcoin adoption continue to grow?
728.
Post 6219173 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
The market today does not give more than 12% probability of that happening; probably much less than that.
That's why I am buying and telling others to buy.
Bitcoin has a long and glorious history that its price has had nothing to do with long-term expected value. My estimate of scenario-probability-weighted discounted 2020 value of 1 bitcoin is about $500,000 and the fact that the majority of players in the market think differently, is my advantage.
And I am quite sure I know the reason for that. It is the
extreme information asymmetry between Bitcoin owners and non-owners. (To simplify,) Bitcoin owners know that bitcoins are very valuable, and they buy and hold as much as they can. But as a result of their price going up, it forces people to sell, not because they don't trust Bitcoin, or expect the EV to be anything less than $100k or whatever in a few years, but because their entire net worth consists of bitcoins and it is rational to diversify (cf.
Kelly betting). Even if the price goes down, these true believers cannot buy much more because the same optimal allocation strategy holds true.
The ones who don't own bitcoins, don't know it is good
They are converting to bitcoiners at an exponential rate, though (see my previous post, and
this thread for the ownership distribution). This increasing adoption gives the steam to the rise of price, in a self-sustaining virtuous cycle.
First only very few people knew about Bitcoin, and they were technologically astute and early adopter type. Many could start using Bitcoin immediately upon hearing. In the second phase more people heard, but they were, on average, slower. In the third phase or so, in which I belong, I heard and it took me 12 months to buy. In the next one, people who heard in 2011, propelled the boom in 2013 because their average decision making time was even longer. In the whole of 2013, especially the time around the peaks, 100s of millions of people heard about Bitcoin. On average, these people are even slower than previous ones, perhaps taking on average 24 months to enter (and also a smaller percentage of them enters). But they are so many! There is nothing you can really do to prevent the fraction of these people adopting Bitcoin, and by doing it, their action increases the price again by a decade, letting the rest of the planet to hear about it and putting hundreds of millions of people in the pipeline.
Bitcoiners know it, the rest don't. The price does not go to $1 million in an instant because only the ones who realize the above thing, can push the price up, but it will nevertheless go there eventually, because the above thing is a self-sustaining loop. Therefore buying bitcoins when you read and realize it, is the most lopsided bet you can ever make. You can actually pay $460 for something whose EV (expected value = average payback of all scenarios weighted by their probabilities) is in between $100k and $1M+. ONLY the fact that people realize this one at a time, slowly but exponentially, keeps the bitcoin price "at check", growing at an average of 1000% per year, for 5+ years now.
My wealth is dependent on the above being true. Nobody has explained to me, why it is not so. The stage is yours!
729.
Post 6226150 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
to pop some bubbles: 3320ish on huobi is the breakout point and would prove the breakout of bearish trend started last year - and thats quite a way to go
To this and similar thinking I would say: The large traders are not
following these technical patterns, they are
creating them.
This thread was started as Wall Observer - previously there were large single orders which formed "walls" in the depth chart. But they have always been erected by the market manipulators, because they are the only ones with that many coins (then
BTC10-
BTC20k, now even
BTC2k is considered a wall).
From my experience I can tell that wall building can fake selling pressure, and force the price down by 15% followed by buyback. At least it did in May, 2013.
If I had 35,000 bitcoins, I could manipulate the market all I wanted, and make money doing so. Hint: it is only 0.3% of world's bitcoins and there are several people who have it, and who most probably operate in the markets.
Please do not consider that Bitcoin market is more free market than any market in the "free market" countries. They are all ruthlessly manipulated to achieve various aims, and the way for you to make a small annual gain in the number of your bitcoins (which actually increases your % of world's bitcoins, because of the low inflation) is to
hold, sell high, and buy back low, and not fall on the trap that the "technicals" can forecast anything, because they are fabricated. And be content what you get, and not short.
730.
Post 6226776 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Right now these markets are like 98% day traders just following each other around in circles. There is no fresh fiat coming in anywhere (and by "no" I mean no substantial bull market fiat).
evidence please. prove there is no fresh fiat. order books are growing every day.
windjc and others haven't probably considered the effect that Gox and other exchanges' fall has had on the market landscape:
- It has made people wary on sending fiat to exchange, yes (this is the visible effect).
- But it has also made them search for and use the alternatives (this is the invisible effect).
Lots of trade is happening in services like Bittiraha.fi, who make markets locally (and local = Europe in this case). Judging the volume from exchange data is hilarious. Equally hilarious is the day when the positive balance of the local market-making hits the exchanges. That demand is in the form of market orders.
I for one think that the exchanges are a drag on Bitcoin's longer-term health (and have been on this line since $50). Consequently, I think that the development that people don't trust the exchanges any more is good.
Why I try to exhort people buy now is that you deserve it (after so much pain and misinformation)! Reading this thread only and following the prevalent mood would have made you buy at $1000 and sell at $400, but the reverse is how you make money.
731.
Post 6226863 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
I don't have any clue wtf to do now.
I bought my first btc at around 680 because there were "cheap coins."
I bought more on the way down to 500 to "cost average"
I put almost my entire savings at 480
Then everyone said if it broke 400 we were screwed and there was NO good news from China at all so I sold at 399.
So wtf do I do now? I've lost thousands and the money hasn't hit my bank account so I can't even buy back in. Wtf do i do?
Buy back.
Stop reading news.
Stop caring about price.
*Have your friend call you if and only if Bitcoin experiences a sell signal (0.4 log units above trendline).
Live your life.
Wait for the call.
When it comes, check if selling max 50% of your bitcoins is enough to retire.
If yes, sell them. If no, take 20% out as profits and buy something nice.
Go to *.
732.
Post 6227116 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Right now these markets are like 98% day traders just following each other around in circles. There is no fresh fiat coming in anywhere (and by "no" I mean no substantial bull market fiat).
evidence please. prove there is no fresh fiat. order books are growing every day.
windjc and others haven't probably considered the effect that Gox and other exchanges' fall has had on the market landscape:
- It has made people wary on sending fiat to exchange, yes (this is the visible effect).
- But it has also made them search for and use the alternatives (this is the invisible effect).
Lots of trade is happening in services like Bittiraha.fi, who make markets locally (and local = Europe in this case). Judging the volume from exchange data is hilarious. Equally hilarious is the day when the positive balance of the local market-making hits the exchanges. That demand is in the form of market orders.
I for one think that the exchanges are a drag on Bitcoin's longer-term health (and have been on this line since $50). Consequently, I think that the development that people don't trust the exchanges any more is good.
Why I try to exhort people buy now is that you deserve it (after so much pain and misinformation)! Reading this thread only and following the prevalent mood would have made you buy at $1000 and sell at $400, but the reverse is how you make money.
Thanks Risto.
so while fresh fiat may not be entering, do you think there may be a surprise shortage of bitcoins to satisfy margin calls? (due to accumulation off exchanges - the invisible effect)
Fresh fiat is entering all the time, I see it in the grassroots level. But less and less of it is going through the exchanges, even I don't solicit them any more, and I try to make my personal purchases off them. The exchange price IS the market price, but market price is manipulated, and it is even more easier to do now, as honest people don't trust their money to the exchanges any more (less bitcoins for same effect).
This causes volatility, and we already went relatively lower than in any point during summer-2013. But it works both ways - also the surprises to the upside can, may and will happen as a result of the tail-wags-dog dynamic that we have.
It is so easy if you just play with the money that you can lose, disconnect emotion, hold, sell high and buy low.
733.
Post 6227194 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Any source to see the current logarithmic trendline?
There are 3 trendlines that try to map the whole history:
- mine
- SlipperySlope's
- jl2012
(ofc nobody owns the numbers but we update them)
You mean some of these or some other?
734.
Post 6227227 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
What is currently the largest exchange by volume? I was just thinking that an easy way to verify the volumes is to check the orderbook depth. Eg. now huobi depth < 0.5*BS depth.
735.
Post 6227824 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
If Huobi goes back to 2900 today it's going to look really bad.
Why do you think so? Is there something in my "technical signals = manipulation" model that is implausible?
What exactly is so bad that a market recovers +50% from its low in a few days and then takes a breather, even shedding up to 61.8% of the gains if need be (going back to 405)? Or is this the "really bad" that you're calling? If so, I will call that if we go to 405 and stop there, it is REALLY GOOD and a sign the sub-400 will NEVER EVER be visited again. Although I anyway think so...
... it is kind of ironic that all the assholes are the ones who end up shorting bitcoin ... the fastest rising monetary asset EVER ... they deserve it, they are welcome to it, meet your fate.
LOL
736.
Post 6228057 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Tera: OK, you have your models, and I have mine. I just laughed when I accidentally found your bullish predictions from 11.Feb, and my refutation of it, of which the latter became true.
The real problem is the lack of framework, imo. To be held accountable in one's predictions, one would need to have a system in place for forecasts, timing, probabilities, buy/sell signals, and to monitor their accuracy. Just waving hands and writing unsystematized stuff in threads does not count. My adhoc query about the percentage probabilities for the remainder of 2014 was a humble attempt to get this a little more accountable.
But of course I realize that most posters don't want it, because it would reveal their badness and expose all the trolls.
737.
Post 6228080 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Now, show me a post by a hero member saying he is shorting. Find someone? No one. The ones who did in the past (
Moonshadow and his shorting during 2011 comes to mind) admitted they faced such losses they will never short BTC again.
+2 LMAO
738.
Post 6229793 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
If I was speculating, I would sell now. It can go as low as 405, likely at least 460.
739.
Post 6230520 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
If I was speculating, I would sell now. It can go as low as 405, likely at least 460.
Why?
The price goes up and down in waves. Now we went up +50% in short time, so with no particular reason it can go down 10-20%. "If I was speculating" means that I don't try to capture this small waves usually, because the max bet is so small, and gain is so small, and prob of success is not as high as with capturing only the megawaves.
740.
Post 6234543 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
The price will go down, because this spike wasn't caused by new money entering the system, but by moving around of some money that was already in the system. And it's not a lot that's in, so it was only a matter of time when the rise gets exhausted and starts to fall back. I think that we will see some low volume aftershock waves today, and maybe even tomorrow, but it won't be long when the price drops back to sub 400. As long as there isn't new money coming in, then it's a bad call to just sit on BTC. Only thing to hope for is that the drop will be fast and not slow and ugly, like it has been for the past months.
While such analysis might hold true for a short time such as a few months, it nevertheless remains that since the end of 2009, Bitcoin userbase has grown 10,000x and its price 100,000x.
By betting that the downtrend will continue, you are betting against exponential growth. Why would you do it?
Are you saying that it has suddenly become much more difficult than before to reach the next order of magnitude of userbase and, hence, valuation? And saying that in the exact relative low point of the price according to the trend so far? And that Bitcoin userbase will actually stop growing and start shrinking? Now? It's almost discounted in price btw
Man, you got to be kidding!
This one stands unrefuted, you may try:
The market today does not give more than 12% probability of that happening; probably much less than that.
That's why I am buying and telling others to buy.
Bitcoin has a long and glorious history that its price has had nothing to do with long-term expected value. My estimate of scenario-probability-weighted discounted 2020 value of 1 bitcoin is about $500,000 and the fact that the majority of players in the market think differently, is my advantage.
And I am quite sure I know the reason for that. It is the
extreme information asymmetry between Bitcoin owners and non-owners. (To simplify,) Bitcoin owners know that bitcoins are very valuable, and they buy and hold as much as they can. But as a result of their price going up, it forces people to sell, not because they don't trust Bitcoin, or expect the EV to be anything less than $100k or whatever in a few years, but because their entire net worth consists of bitcoins and it is rational to diversify (cf.
Kelly betting). Even if the price goes down, these true believers cannot buy much more because the same optimal allocation strategy holds true.
The ones who don't own bitcoins, don't know it is good
They are converting to bitcoiners at an exponential rate, though (see my previous post, and
this thread for the ownership distribution). This increasing adoption gives the steam to the rise of price, in a self-sustaining virtuous cycle.
First only very few people knew about Bitcoin, and they were technologically astute and early adopter type. Many could start using Bitcoin immediately upon hearing. In the second phase more people heard, but they were, on average, slower. In the third phase or so, in which I belong, I heard and it took me 12 months to buy. In the next one, people who heard in 2011, propelled the boom in 2013 because their average decision making time was even longer. In the whole of 2013, especially the time around the peaks, 100s of millions of people heard about Bitcoin. On average, these people are even slower than previous ones, perhaps taking on average 24 months to enter (and also a smaller percentage of them enters). But they are so many! There is nothing you can really do to prevent the fraction of these people adopting Bitcoin, and by doing it, their action increases the price again by a decade, letting the rest of the planet to hear about it and putting hundreds of millions of people in the pipeline.
Bitcoiners know it, the rest don't. The price does not go to $1 million in an instant because only the ones who realize the above thing, can push the price up, but it will nevertheless go there eventually, because the above thing is a self-sustaining loop. Therefore buying bitcoins when you read and realize it, is the most lopsided bet you can ever make. You can actually pay $460 for something whose EV (expected value = average payback of all scenarios weighted by their probabilities) is in between $100k and $1M+. ONLY the fact that people realize this one at a time, slowly but exponentially, keeps the bitcoin price "at check", growing at an average of 1000% per year, for 5+ years now.
My wealth is dependent on the above being true. Nobody has explained to me, why it is not so. The stage is yours!
741.
Post 6236001 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
Try to grasp that, dude.
Everything that you say can, from investor standpoint, be quantified. They are very real things, and they carry a certain probability, and have a certain effect. Bitcoin has suffered quite a lot during its existence, and the outcome is 100,000 times value increase since the end of 2009. It has not been easy during this time, and the growth has happened nevertheless. Assuming that with overwhelming (>>99%) probability Bitcoin is destroyed in an instant with no trace of recoverable value left, still does not make it a -EV proposition for the following 5 years!!
(if the positive case is that it replaces fiat)
To rationally decide to
not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is
impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least). Because I think it is almost
inevitable, just like all the other new technologies that just were better than the previous way of doing things.
742.
Post 6236923 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).
No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable
Sorry if this point seems patronizing or insulting, but you need to be aware, in case you are not, of the concept of expected value. A very large reward at very low probability may have much higher expected value than a modest reward at high probability. Because the reward for owning bitcoin is so vast, in the fiat displacement case (which I agree is inevitable, albeit perhaps not with bitcoin as we know it today) even at vanishingly small probability it is a "rational" choice. The concept of rationality is debatable. But given the standard concept of rationality, the outcome is not really debatable.
...and by making this rational choice, people increase the odds of the positive outcome actually happening (the more people in, the higher we go and the nearer we are to the positive outcome).
It is quite marvellous, I don't know the actual invisible mechanism, but the visible proof is bitcoin price and its mind-boggling historical development.
- -
Anyone who thinks that Bitcoin has anything higher than 0.1% chance of success, should rationally buy bitcoins. The trick is that buying increases the chance of success. With a few iterations you realize that the chance of success is actually something between 25% and 75%. Then you are very willing to buy bitcoins. Which increases the price, rewards previous investors, gets more people interested, and makes the chance go up. In 3-5 years we have everybody using bitcoins, and an ordinary person has 5m
BTC in the west and 1m
BTC in BRIC.
Why was the adoption of a new technology with network effects never before so interesting?
743.
Post 6237740 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
Difficulties like what? There has never been anything as important to bitcoin before then to step over the threshhold to get the legal framework and instututional funding. Everything before this has been just fun and games.
That the (then-current) powers that be try to stifle innovation is as old as the Earth. And yes, sometimes they succeed. Name one.
1. No country with a right mind will replace fiat for a currency that is controlled and owned by anonymous individuals, who have no responsibility over that currency. And who are also in high probability former criminals, when you consider the history of bitcoin.
If any country was truly independent, it would have adopted Bitcoin already, mainly because of the fact that it would make them insanely rich. It is like if Norway was asked, "do you want to have all this oil for free, we can give it to Scotland also?" Of course they take it.
2. There are no mechanics in bitcoin that enable it to offer price stability. And please don't try to insult my intelligence by telling that wider adoptation will create the stability. As long as bitcoin is very attractive to speculative play, then there will always be strong volatility.
If you quote prices and wages in something, no matter what, they are stable in that. (Duh.)
USD or anything else does not have price stability either - it can fluctuate against other fiat currencies, gold, commodities, real estate, goods - tens of % per year. In the long term, gold has better served as a provider of price stability. During the gold standard, this was natural (see the comment with "Duh"), but even afterwards, prices denominated in gold have fluctuated less than prices in USD. This is mainly because of the persistent inflation of USD, of course, but that is the only way to keep a fiat system inflated due to the requirement to pay interest to 100% of the money base.
As long as Bitcoin grows, it will have a high volatility. When it matures and becomes a global quote currency, the volatility against other things settles to a level at most comparable to today's USD.
(Adam Smith's / Antal Fekete's) Real Bills are a vehicle that can accommodate the need of self-liquidating credit in an economy.
3. If an country would use BTC as legal tender, that is both attractive to speculative play and distributed by an unregulated market system, then it would be extremely easy to cordinate economic attacks by hostile countries.
There is mainly one global enemy to the sovereignty of countries, and you are likely employed by that. Of course the country has to realize the prospect of economic warfare, but really everything is better than the current fiat slavery. I would probably use a currency basket method in internal contracts (employment contract wage
BTC0.01 + $5 per hour) and many other things. It is quite novel, and therefore interesting.
Fiat isn't just a piece of paper that is printed. The main difficulty for sustaining a quality currency is keeping price stability, and it isn't something that is created by itself. It is created by taking into account the available resources or foreign currencies and by regulating the flow of money according to that information. When the regulation is done right, then prices keep stable and it is possible to make plans with the support of that currency. Bitcoin has fixed supply and therefor it's not able to regulate it's flow to offer price stability. It's all about attracting investors with it's high possibility of deflation.
Sweet talk does not cover the fact that the record of post-1971 USD as a "stable currency" is abysmal and horrific; it has utterly destroyed the nation that in the 1960s was the powerhouse of the world, and now is a shell, producing nothing, and living off of sucking dry the rest of the world. The inhabitants of the USA are impoverished by innumerable means and are now totally indebted by the booms and busts made possible by this irredeemable "stable" dollar. I could go on but let's leave it here.
When you want to talk about BTC replacing fiat, then open your own business and start to use BTC with converting it to fiat only quarterly and try to earn profit with this instability. You can only start dreaming of BTC replacing fiat after services like BitPay would become useless, but I can't how that could happen with fixed supply.
Why would I ever need to convert it to fiat? Owner of Localbitcoins never has more than $100, all his business and personal finances have been in bitcoins for years. My business is ill-suited for your experiment because I trade between fiat-BTC-gold-silver. But one of my companies seem to never have converted its income to fiat nor used it. (Link in sig)
Right now, when someone is asking me "Why couldn't we just use BTC as fiat", then it sounds the same to me as some kid would ask me on why couldn't he just pay with his monopoly money. There are complexities involved that bitcoin is just not able to handle.
I give you the benefit of doubt that you meant it sincerely. Nevertheless, you are wrong. I mean, I see that we are moving to the direction that makes it possible in the coming years, and technology always wins.
744.
Post 6237815 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
if this little correction goes on without breaking 490 for another few hours, I'd have to assume it is just a little correction. The support is impressive. By the looks of it, Huobi is ready to continue.
I also cancel my short trade and issue a buyback at $4 loss.
745.
Post 6243140 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
How do you imagine this adoption taking place? A country just exchanging their fiat, together with their national wealth to bitcoin? So that artificial deficit could be created, with driving the price up 1000000000% and with actually only changing about 2% of total bitcoins to the wealth of that country? And so the rest who own the 98% and who didn't sell, will actually be the new owners of that countries national wealth?
I am more in awe of the current financial system, where people are supposedly fighting to be integrated to a block, which a) immediately takes your gold reserves and transports them away, never to be seen; b) replaces your non-debt based currency with a debt-based, so that every time you want to obtain medium of exchange or store value, somebody, somewhere has to go deeper in debt; c) typically the one that goes into debt, though, is you; d) the interest of this (fabricated and imaginary) debt is paid to private bankers and does not benefit you; e) you are not in Mundell optimum with this currency and your economy is destroyed by this, among other things.
The adoption is quite easy, anyone can buy bitcoins and trade with them. The state also accumulates. Prices are quoted in an independent banana currency that depreciates against bitcoin. When nobody wants the banana currency any more, its value has gone to zero and it is scrapped, everybody uses bitcoin. Simple things are good.
you could actually believe things like "a country would be insanely rich if it would adopt bitcoin!!"
Yes, I don't subscribe at all to the Keynesian theory that countries should be financially managed differently than households or companies.
I have a household, and we are now quite rich because of Bitcoin. I also have a company, which has grown a lot richer because of Bitcoin (the downside is that the company now employs about 10 people, but the cashflow is zero because everybody is so rich and does not need to work). If there is a country, you say that magically it would
not be better off??!
No. There is no transition point where black becomes white. What is good for a small company, is good for a large, and for a small country, and a large country. They just have the fallacy that they need to invest a lot to make it worthwhile for them. Why? I was never net invested even a million USD, and now you say that I am so rich that countries adopting Bitcoin would just benefit
me, and that this is a reason why they should not invest! Oh, the irony -
entire countries sentencing their population to poverty because of envy towards rpietila! They could go and buy 10k bitcoins for any leftover money in their budget and live happily ever after, which is what I am doing. Number of bitcoins is important, not the amount of fiat you paid. Fiat is just a con.
Not that I cared. No country is currently buying bitcoins openly, and bitcoin is doing just fine. When they realize that envying me is not a reason enough to destroy the future of their population, then they buy. Or at least the people there.
When the currency is strongly tied to fossil fuels, then it keeps relative stability to practicly everything else.
If the policy was actually governed by that,
gold would still be your currency. At that time the prices were quite stable. Even after taking the reckless fiat course in 1971, the charts show that priced IN gold, oil has been trading in a tight channel, only occasionally visited below 10 or above 20. This one also shows what a joke
fiat's supposed stability is. For more than 100 years(!) in gold dollar, oil price has been trading in channel of 0.50-2 dollars per barrel. After 1971 and "managed dollar", the price periodically readjusts 10 times higher than before, and even the period between readjustments is not stable (since 2000, price range 20-150).
Bitcoin will never be stable, even with growth. Only thing happens is that the players will get bigger. today we have whales that are battling eachother with manipulation, but in the future we would have megacorporations and countries that would battle eachother with manipulation and attempts to screw with eachothers efficency.
That you cannot develop remedies to this, does not mean that they don't exist. I (for one) am well capable to think about those matters and implement them, but we are in general still in the kindergarten stage, where people debate over whether it is a good deal to buy
BTC1,000 with $10,000,000. Hint: with those figures, the next year solves the question effortlessly, 100M I'm not sure.
No one wants to take responsibility for anything and everyone just want to whine and act like they're powerless.
I agree that this is very annoying.
Haha, if you buy something with bitcoin, from a merchant that uses BitPay, then you are just converting your BTC to USD at bitpay and not in the exchange before. To this date I have only met one store that accepts bitcoin directly, without the support of bitpay.
To repeat:
- I know guys who don't use fiat at all, many of them are quite rich because it's bitcoin they use
- Personally I use fiat and have it in balance sheets of my company but it is because my business is currency exchange between fiat/btc/gold/silver, where fiat is an input to the production process (plus a responsible hedge against bitcoin failure)
- Value transmit and value storing are different functions for a currency. This enables people who don't care for bitcoin's price, to use it as a remittance mechanism (and hasten its development), and people, who don't care to transact with it before it's mature, to use it as a store of value (and hasten its maturity).
746.
Post 6243490 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
There's just something off about this rally. I understood the rally after silk road closed. I understood the rally after Gox closed. I don't understand balls to the wall in China when The PBoC has not reversed policy or no major exchange has closed. A market that suddenly changes direction without a retest of support and news that amounts to a loophole that may or may not be closed?
To use Alan Greenspan's term, it looks like "irrational exuberance". Demand that appears this suddenly can disappear just as suddenly. Supply that can disappear suddenly can reappear suddenly.
Why such confusion? Did you really understand the decline from 600 to 340 in face of nothing but positive news and developments? To me, that was the irrational part. The exuberance starts when we cross the exponential trendline somewhere around 2000.
The market is too thinly traded to be trusted.
Nothing is real except the bitcoins you have in an address whose key is offline-generated by you.
747.
Post 6252009 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
Have also noticed that Bitstamp are becoming tighter and tighter with allowing deposits to register in peoples accounts. I sent over just $3K the other day and again, they are wanting me to 'prove' where I am getting it from. I told them to fuck off. I am getting my money back, I can't see how I am going to get any amount of money back onto that exchanges cos no way am I giving them any personal details of the description that they are asking for. Bet there are quite as lot of Bitcoiners who are feeling the same. Not exactly conducive to increased adoption is it?
That's very interesting and I agree, not conducive to increased adoption.
I wonder what the perma bulls (aminorex, risto) think of this.
Thanks Mat.
I agree. But the general infrastructure is robust: excessive measures by any single exchange hurt that exchange more than anything, and therefore the competition keeps them at check.
My "permabullness" has lasted for exactly 50 days now. Before that I was a bear for 97 days, almost twice as long!
748.
Post 6292493 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
But we do not need to discuss theory. The MtGOX heist alone stole 5% of all the money in the bitcoin economy. There have been dozens, if not hundreds, of other heists; the total may be 10% of all the money. AFAIK, none of those thieves has been identified, much less caught; and none of those stolen coins were retrieved.
That is 10% of all the money in 5 years, which is 2% per year.
Inflation alone steals 3-9% of our money every year.
Try harder
749.
Post 6298900 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Shameless cross-post to advertise my recent findings:
I found some results from the correlation of
(previous_month;next_month) pairs. In other words, how the percentage gain in the previous month correlates with the gain of the coming month.
1. The linear trend was with positive slope, so in general it goes up the more, the more it has already gone up mo/mo.
y = 0,2394x + 0,0672
R² = 0,05661
2. If it has crashed -22% or more in the previous month, the next month has never been better than +76%.
3. If it has crashed -48% or more, the next month has also always been negative!
4. If it has gone up at least +6% and not more than +255% (LOL) in the previous month, the next month has never been worse than -32%.
5. About zero gain last month can lead to 500% gain next month (or -50% loss).
2014-5-19: Our Last Month has been -0.083 == -17%
750.
Post 6299399 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Shameless cross-post to advertise my recent findings:
I found some results from the correlation of
(previous_month;next_month) pairs. In other words, how the percentage gain in the previous month correlates with the gain of the coming month.
1. The linear trend was with positive slope, so in general it goes up the more, the more it has already gone up mo/mo.
y = 0,2394x + 0,0672
R² = 0,05661
2. If it has crashed -22% or more in the previous month, the next month has never been better than +76%.
3. If it has crashed -48% or more, the next month has also always been negative!
4. If it has gone up at least +6% and not more than +255% (LOL) in the previous month, the next month has never been worse than -32%.
5. About zero gain last month can lead to 500% gain next month (or -50% loss).
2014-5-19: Our Last Month has been -0.083 == -17%Currently with prices floating around $500, BTC prices are about 55% down from the ATH of $1150-ish (over 4.5 months ago)... and about zero gain in the last month. So your findings are telling us we will NOT go any lower than $250, but NO higher than $2500 within the next 30 days? or do we measure from $340 to say we will go no higher than $1700 and no lower than $170.
Something seems very incomplete with this supposed mathematical look at past performance to describe potential future performance. - like it's missing something.
The important findings in my opinion were:
- If bitcoin has tanked heavily in the previous month (-22% or more), don't buy, it's a knife
- If it has gained 6%-255%, buy, because it has never been destroyed afterwards ("only" lost 32% max)
Now it is impossible to say what will happen, based on historical results, because the variance is too high.
There is a probability table prediction competition going on in the same thread.
751.
Post 6299584 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
I wish someone would take a few months to gather all the predictions made in this forum and make a list of the best nd worst predictors
You need to have a standard how to measure the goodness of the prediction.
I said that the price would go to 450 when it was 850, and it did, 2 days after. Many thought that was impressive.
If I now say that price will go to 450, it is not very impressive.
In my thread there is a prediction contest, and the idea is that the average of other predictions become the standard that you have to beat, to get some glory and fame.
752.
Post 6300264 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
This is a very low R^2. You are predicting 5.7% of the outcome (possibly because bitcoin's walk is primarily random). So what this means is that all of your predictions will have huge error ranges. With a large error range you might predict a 10% gain on average, but actually it will range from -30% to 40% and may have only a 60% chance of being greater than zero.
If you don't believe me now because of a low R^2, why don't you believe the exponential trendline which has R^2 = 0.94?
Yes, I know it's very low but in this kind of game where you can use leverage if you want etc., every edge is an opportunity. Unless it is purely random, which I don't believe. I intend to run the same analysis for different lengths of time, perhaps to find better results.
One of the fascinating things about Bitcoin is that a random month is positive with 60% probability and only 40% is negative.
753.
Post 6300279 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Indeed. In fact, we have a blockchain that can provide audited records to show who has the best results. If only we had a way to link the BTC addresses in the blockchain to posters here. Ah, but we do. A signature can provide that proof.
Nah. People play with different size of stack, for example.
754.
Post 6336201 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
This is a very low R^2. You are predicting 5.7% of the outcome (possibly because bitcoin's walk is primarily random). So what this means is that all of your predictions will have huge error ranges. With a large error range you might predict a 10% gain on average, but actually it will range from -30% to 40% and may have only a 60% chance of being greater than zero.
If you don't believe me now because of a low R^2, why don't you believe the exponential trendline which has R^2 = 0.94?
Yes, I know it's very low but in this kind of game where you can use leverage if you want etc., every edge is an opportunity. Unless it is purely random, which I don't believe. I intend to run the same analysis for different lengths of time, perhaps to find better results.
One of the fascinating things about Bitcoin is that a random month is positive with 60% probability and only 40% is negative.
I ran a similar test with weekly prices, and that gave the R^2 of only 0.017, which had no value.
755.
Post 6336246 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
I feel like this market is being kept up by hoarding, not by buying. Its almost as if the resistance is coming from an unwillingness to sell more than anything.
Is this not an ultimate sign of a bottom? Price holding even if no fiat is coming? Bitcoin's price kept at $500 by the current adoption of 1 million people? No speculative premium?
756.
Post 6336320 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
I feel like this market is being kept up by hoarding, not by buying. Its almost as if the resistance is coming from an unwillingness to sell more than anything.
Is this not an ultimate sign of a bottom? Price holding even if no fiat is coming? Bitcoin's price kept at $500 by the current adoption of 1 million people? No speculative premium?
Holders are waiting for the price to go up. If the price doesn't go up, they will start dumping soon.
Haha
You never thought that they might know better..
757.
Post 6336669 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
I feel like this market is being kept up by hoarding, not by buying. Its almost as if the resistance is coming from an unwillingness to sell more than anything.
Is this not an ultimate sign of a bottom? Price holding even if no fiat is coming? Bitcoin's price kept at $500 by the current adoption of 1 million people? No speculative premium?
I think your 1 million
people wallets figure is irrelevant in that we still have this figure in which 90% of bitcoins are held by 500 or so people.
Absolutely. It's hardly decentralised and is ripe for manipulation at any point by large holders.
And not to mention that Rpietila is in the famous 500 supernodes!
But actually the way to think is: we know Bitcoin market cap for certain. What we don't know is the number of owners. If there is 500,000 owners, then they own twice as much
by dollar value. Which means that it can go up even more because there is more people left!
ADD: Coinbase alone has more than a million customers, or do you think everybody registers with multiple accounts?
And USA is about 40% of Bitcoin activity...
758.
Post 6338132 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
I feel like this market is being kept up by hoarding, not by buying. Its almost as if the resistance is coming from an unwillingness to sell more than anything.
Is this not an ultimate sign of a bottom? Price holding even if no fiat is coming? Bitcoin's price kept at $500 by the current adoption of 1 million people? No speculative premium?
I think your 1 million
people wallets figure is irrelevant in that we still have this figure in which 90% of bitcoins are held by 500 or so people.
Absolutely. It's hardly decentralised and is ripe for manipulation at any point by large holders.
And not to mention that Rpietila is in the famous 500 supernodes!
But actually the way to think is: we know Bitcoin market cap for certain. What we don't know is the number of owners. If there is 500,000 owners, then they own twice as much
by dollar value. Which means that it can go up even more because there is more people left!
ADD: Coinbase alone has more than a million customers, or do you think everybody registers with multiple accounts? And USA is about 40% of Bitcoin activity...
A million customers...that is pretty unbelievable.
Remember that a lot of people tough that the actual number of Mt.gox users was way higher than the February outcome revealed.
And their website being outside 1000 top us websites by traffic doesn't add too much confidence.
With only 37 millions transactions in the blockchain and with the number of daily one being constant from may last year between the 50-70k range...
I doubt there are that many bitcoin users or HODLERS.
You go accuse coinbase of lying, then..
Mt.Gox leak revealed
BTC10 average holding, which is kind of good info.
Btw. just updated the
thread in question.
My point being that
the smaller the userbase now, the more upside left, so even if it somehow turns out that the whole world only has double the userbase of Finland (which I know from firsthand), it just means more upside.
759.
Post 6340805 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Probably then and only then we will find out the real price people are willing to pay for btc.
For the vast majority of mankind, it is more important to know the price someone is willing to
sell btc. And that is about $500 today.
760.
Post 6351870 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Just take this as an opportunity to turn off the computer, get out the house and do something productive. Set an alarm if you need but theres nothing to see here
Wanted to take this opportunity to publish the
exchange rate prediction contest, which is now getting its final rule clarifications, will run for 8 rounds during the remainder of 2014, and has the top prize of
$2,000 (or more, depending on
BTC)!
761.
Post 6352257 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Bitcoin can actually gather momentum quite quickly if it is easy and reliable to buy it: During my research into userbases in various countries, the best confirmed results are 0.5% of adult population in 18 months.
Worldwide, that would be 5,000,000,000 * 0.005 = 25 million users, which is 1+ million users per month.
The proliferation of Bitcoin trading and ATM's is going on everywhere. Meanwhile, this thread is the greatest trollhouse I have ever seen. I would suggest everyone to spend as much time reading something else than you read Adam Smith's Wall Observer, to have even a balanced picture of what is going on.
762.
Post 6352297 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Is there any evidence to the belief that expansions in the bitcoin ecosystem, services & economy actually increase the price..??
...
So why in the WORLD is there this MYTH continuing about merchant adoption, growing ecosystem = higher price? Wtf? What am I missing..?
Welcome to the forum! Hope you've had the good first 6 days. Btw. the question is off-topic for this thread but let's not be picky.
Your question is discussed for example here.
763.
Post 6353691 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Breakout is imminent. Good.
(If it goes up, it's about time. If it goes down, it still does not stop bitcoin adoption & infrastructure growth, just makes more coins go from unbelievers to believers and newcomers.)
764.
Post 6354754 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
just makes more coins go from unbelievers to believers
The cultists are finally coming out of the closet
80% of the world's gold is hoarded by
your employers, and
I am suddenly a cultist..
We had a good discussion going on a while ago, let's continue that if you will?
765.
Post 6355230 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
The proliferation of Bitcoin trading and ATM's is going on everywhere. Meanwhile, this thread is the greatest trollhouse I have ever seen. I would suggest everyone to spend as much time reading something else than you read Adam Smith's Wall Observer, to have even a balanced picture of what is going on.
I remember you saying a while ago you wouldn't post much here (this forum, that is) anymore.
Guess the overwhelming demand of your loyal fans kept you here, huh?
Kind of. Because every day I get this kind of posts from people whom I have little or (generally) no prior interaction with. (date=today):
Hello,
Just wanted to say I appreciate your posts.
I read a while ago that you were planning to spend less time on this forum and more time in a new exclusive forum.
I hope that you do not leave bitcointalk behind totally, as I think it is very important to keep up a level of quality posts, even if people must search through more and more rubbish to find them. Like it or not, bitcointalk keeps growing as the reference for people wanting to join the bitcoin community and so the trolls and fools must not be allowed to take over.
It appears that with bitcoin coming under the mainstream spotlight, more of this low quality can be expected. But there is also perhaps even a more sinister element at play: trolls working on behalf of governments, seeking to sow FUD in the community. I know it may sound far-fetched and perhaps this might make you reach for the tin foil hat, but I read a very interesting article published recently regarding the leaking of a troll handbook created by the British secret service, which teaches professional internet trolls working for the organisation to discredit targets and sow discord. I cannot help believing that bitcointalk is currently host to this kind of influence.
Anyway, keep up the good work!
766.
Post 6360289 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
If you can answer me one last question however, Reptilian, irregardless of its relevance to this thread's main topic or not, I would have to begin paying regular visits to your temple ; If a market exchange (speculative) price increases because an ASK order gets moved up, taken down, or bought into, it stands to reason that in order for an underlying economy's userbase & transactions expansion to indeed raise this price, each added user/transaction has to help get sellers to MOVE or take down their sell (ask) orders, and/or increase demand pressure for buyers to eat into these ask walls?? Now if the vast majority of users, due to obvious demographic factors,
already had any BTC they needed to participate in the economy, they won't be pushing any demand on these ask orders, so how will that cause sellers to raise their price..? Especially when -merchants- will then dump proceeds on the market thus increasing supply & definitely not getting these ask/bids higher..?
Seeing the temple remains a dream for you, because I cannot answer the question.
767.
Post 6369743 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
This, and the other chart with 3 waves going down, down, down.
The market rhymes, until it doesn't.
Would you rather bet that Bitcoin experiences at least one more wave up (like the 2 pictured above), so that you make 10x with little risk of losing all?
Or that it goes down at least one more time, so that you have to use 5x leverage to double your money with real risk of losing all?
IMO it is more probable and more profitable to bet on the first option only, and leave the second one aside. As you might remember, I played the downswings a lot but stopped in February 25, not willing to be crushed by the train.
768.
Post 6370201 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
I just thinking to buy more machines. If that graph really goes down and with more difficulty, did calculate in bitcoinwisdom, its never ROI. 1 TH with price almost 3500 USD (include shipment and tax). How the hell people still buy more machines ?
And why its goes down ? I dont see any bad news, and china's schedule for Global Bitcoin Summit 2014 in Beijing is coming up...
Because there is a small group of people with a lot of coins who want to take us down.
It can't be more obvious. The market actually wants to go up. But every single time we go up a bit there is a big dump. Pure manipulation.
I have no idea who these people are. I'm not into conspiracies but it stinks.
If 2013 is any guide, it takes 5 months from the capitulation bottom to reach the new high. Of that, 3 months nothing happened. So this month nothing will happen, May nothing will happen, June nothing will happen, July something will start to happen, August, latest September we are at $7.
Argh, how is it possible to wait 0.25 more YEARS, after all, it is 90 days, more than 2000 hours!! I want my candy NOW!!1
769.
Post 6371585 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
I just bet on black and won 5 times in a row. That means it will happen a 6th time for sure.
This never makes any sense though, Bitcoin price going up or down is not a 50-50 bet. You would wager that with increased adoption and services, as well as infrastructure and vc investment your odds are way better than 50-50. Not a gurantee but more likely than not, no?
The odds distribution is not the point - it's the use of patterns. Adoption is a potentially valid argument for an increase, but the increases in the past are not. I should have found a better analogy.
The increases in the past are something that has never before happened in the history of mankind. This much is a fact.
What we must now research is:
what has caused it? There must be something in play that has not been part in any previous rises in the price of investable instruments.
The answer could be: adoption. If the bitcoin network is valued at linearly to the number of its members, the rise in participants from 10 to 1,000,000 would explain the rise of price by 100,000x. But since the number of bitcoins has risen, the marketcap has actually risen more than 100,000x and thus more than linearly - SlipperySlope says that quadratic is the right function. The truth may be in between.
There may be other answers, but the mainstream thinking of: ponzi, pyramid, bubble, don't survive because there is plenty of evidence from them in the history of mankind, and they do not correspond to what is happening with Bitcoin.
For people who are not research-minded, the mere historical facts could serve as a basis for investment. The main disadvantage is that they are prone to buying high and selling low. Holding takes understanding.
770.
Post 6371754 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Hey, I started planning this
price prediction contest because I got 16 predictors in the preliminary round which was only open for 24 hours!
To start it, I'd like to have indication of at least a few participants, so if you plan to join, please send me PM (not binding!) or drop a line in the thread itself.
I have promised
BTC2 or $2,000 (whichever is HIGHER at the close of the year) as a prize. Entry cost is
BTC0.1.
771.
Post 6373952 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
He writes that "0.005 USD" is just an arbitrary value.
That would be oversimplifying my words. Try: "I have learned of several isolated trades during the time period, none of which has happened at below 0.001 or above 0.01. Because the trading was non-continuous and the individual circumstances may have affected the prices, volume data is not available to me, and many other factors, I have approximated 0.005 for the whole period with no trend."
772.
Post 6374200 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
AFAIK, the only model that has some claim to statistical legitimacy is the log-Brownian (or geometric-Brownian) model, which gives a very broad probability distribution, having 50% chance above today's price, 50% below, for any future date.
Bitcoin 30-day change (historical, 1500+ datapoints) is 60.6% positive, 39.4% negative.
773.
Post 6375157 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
...drivel...
Go away, troll. If it did not have any value, nobody would try to derail the discussion. Go to Blackcoin! They also believe that it has value. Not interested? Well, that just affirms that Bitcoin has value and Blackcoin does not.
($5 billion was given by USA to
foment a revolution promote democracy in Ukraine. Bitcoin is much more important than a midsize country. It is part of the game to have paid trolls. Lots of them.)
774.
Post 6376827 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Of course it has value
There are some weird things that hold large amount of wealth in the world, like the Church of Scientology and Vatican for instance, are also quite rich. So, I'm not actually denying the chance that bitcoin could actually rake in a good amount of dumb money. That's why I'm asking you to hire me. Let's rake these fools together and we can live like kings!
No thanks, I have enough work in keeping out the people who are clandestine agents, I don't need any who are doing it as openly as you.
Yeah, that sucks doesn't it. The educated and experienced people are just so stupid, that they invest 5billion to the uncertain situation in Ukraine, but they just can't see the mad profits in buying bitcoin. If only the rest of the world would be as smart as you and others in this forum, what a wonderful world it would be...
Last time I checked, the exponential conversion rate from dumb to smart was +1161% APR. So it does not matter
A) in the big picture,
B) for any of the existing holders, how long it takes for a random
additional person or entity to adopt it.
But it matters pretty darn much for C) that person or entity. Which practically guarantees that some will outsmart others also this year. Like a rigged roulette which not only pays 10:1 for red, but also all numbers are red.
Hey, but maybe they are worrying, that if they buy bitcoin, then some anonymous owner will dump 1mil. of his coins and run away with their invested wealth? Could they actually be this stupid, that they worry about risks like that? Yeah, I think they are stupid enough to actually worry about taking unmanagable risks. They should just stop worrying and buy bitcoins, because of the mad profit$$$ they receive!!!!!!!
I haven't lost a night's sleep with Bitcoin, even though I keep 60-80% of my net worth in it, and the dollar value fluctuates. Even if it goes to zero, I have other stuff and am still debt free. I cannot understand the debt slaves who take mortgages and willingly tie themselves with financial commitments where they cannot affect, but must suffer, the outcome, and lose everything. All VOLUNTARILY! WtH!
These guys need some serious re-education concerning risk management. Nobody has ever went broke buying bitcoins, but 2% of Finnish adult population went bankrupt and lost all (in many cases for life) in 1991-1993 alone, due to debt. Bitcoin has no debt, no wonder you bankers hate it.
Btw, it's funny to see that you're actually using the information about Ukraine, that is from the Russian information sphere. Aren't Russians more evil then Americans because they banned bitcoin? Americans are saying that talks about 5 billion are a part Russian propaganda. I'm really confused here, please help me.
Well since you only use the American sources, you must be very confused; who can help you?
775.
Post 6378335 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
No thanks, I have enough work in keeping out the people who are clandestine agents, I don't need any who are doing it as openly as you.
You just gave me an excellent idea, thank you.
Selling yourself to the bankers to spy on me in my castle? Yes, that is my business model all along. The place is expensive to stay and so full of spies, that I live happily ever after (need to keep myself at least remotely dangerous though, for sluggish behaviour would lead to reduced income and lifestyle
).
Your pseudoscience has to be more complex and you have to keep the attention on the right details. I could help you with this stuff.
Send PM with serious offer then. I employ 4 full-time and 7 part-time people currently and get job applications regularly.
I must say that I can't blame Russia for starting this problem.
I did not see Russia starting anything, although the media tries hard to make people think so without any factual proof except to the contrary. Otherwise, thanks for the analysis.
776.
Post 6378950 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
hehe yeah I mentioned this last night with people front running on a panic dump...I would imagine the bankruptcy trustees can manage to not just sell them on stamp.. I would assume Second Market, Winklevoss, bigger investors who want bulk buys are talking, or trying to talk with the bankruptcy trustees
Wow, what a bunch of vested interest in keeping the price low...
Boys, the way for us to profit is to buy (or at least not sell) now, as the price suppression continues.
The trendline is at $1100 now, it's better than last October
777.
Post 6384892 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
here's a question,
why doesn't this get more play around here?
http://www.cnet.com/news/mt-gox-liquidation-given-go-ahead-by-tokyo-court/this effectively means that any and all assets of value will be sold to make a pile of money for the lawyers and accountants and all them,
I would see this as cheap bitcoin flooding the market, but I have sometimes been know to see things which are not there.
Not that it is much of my business, but...
...why is there no discussion anywhere that the BTC given to Mt.Gox for safekeeping are
not that company's assets, nor loans to it? They belong to the customers as customer property (or customer funds). In liquidation, the customer property is returned to its owner and not commingled with company assets nor used to pay its lawyers. If the guardian has failed with safekeeping so that a part of the property is stolen, the loss should be prorated, especially if there is no mention in TOS.
Actually it is my business (point: III). I decided to mention this once in every 500 posts.
778.
Post 6385500 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Pretty soon everyone will realize that even $300 is a very likely level of stability, if not mid-200s. The sooner everyone realizes that there's just no basis for this valuation (or the capital in-flights to support it), the better.
Yes, it truly is as if nobody would be able to see more than a few days into the future, and that the price today would have no correlation to expectations of long term value (and only be a product of buying and selling pressure in a given day, in exchanges that lack liquidity).
It is somewhat irritating in the short term but gives an opportunity in the next bubble. I might aim to increase my number of coins not by the usual 10-20% but by 50% with a little more aggressive play. Is anyone with me? PPT?
779.
Post 6385723 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Pretty soon everyone will realize that even $300 is a very likely level of stability, if not mid-200s. The sooner everyone realizes that there's just no basis for this valuation (or the capital in-flights to support it), the better.
Yes, it truly is as if nobody would be able to see more than a few days into the future, and that the price today would have no correlation to expectations of long term value (and only be a product of buying and selling pressure in a given day, in exchanges that lack liquidity).
It is somewhat irritating in the short term but gives an opportunity in the next bubble.
I might aim to increase my number of coins not by the usual 10-20% but by 50% with a little more aggressive play. Is anyone with me? PPT?
Why would you be irritated by this? Assuming you have full faith...
Irritating is the current situation. But that is a human emotion. The longer time down, the higher up it goes afterwards (coins exclusively in very strong hands).
Full faith is something that you should not attribute to any investment. Trust in God alone.
Waiting for "this long" I mean several months, maybe close to a year - is something so irritating that I am thinking of rewarding myself with 50% more coins instead of 10-20% when the next opportunity comes.
780.
Post 6386389 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
I might aim to increase my number of coins not by the usual 10-20% but by 50% with a little more aggressive play. Is anyone with me? PPT?
I know that you MAY NOT care, but I would like to buy at the lowest point... Maybe $420-ish? Anyhow, if you are going to buy several thousand coins, then you should let us go first... b/c your buying may cause the prices to go up a lot, that is if you are buying on any of the exchanges..
No I am not in a position to do that now. The market is stable and going more long would not be prudent. It's good to have cash always with which to buy at dips. This is not a dip, this is an accumulation zone, and my accumulation was done in February already.
I mean I could play more in the top formation phase, even go short if there is a service that would allow doing it with 10,000 bitcoins.
781.
Post 6386958 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Also, if you had been following some variation of the SSS system, then possibly, you would have sufficient fiat at your disposal in order to accomplish the buying up to possibly a few thousand BTC.
Yes, but in my thinking if it goes low enough, I can buy 5,000 or 10,000 more coins. That would affect the market
It does not really matter because if it turns decisively, I'll be rich. If it does not, I'll be OK nevertheless.
Oh, remember that I was talking like this when I sold at 700 and price was at 1100 and everybody was pressuring me that I made a bad trade
The following 2 months I was a bear and still everyone ridiculed me.
Now I'm a bull for 2 months already, and all scorn me (price is up 10% from the point I turned bull in 2014-2-25).
Being contrarian is the way to make money.
782.
Post 6387037 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
I think that we all can agree this will probably happen , I'm looking at something like 90% chance , including the panic dump on the new ban.
Since we are so bored, how about remembering 2012?
What were the news and developments that pressured the price back then? Is it possible to repeat?
Is it just that a certain % of existing holders sell every month out of boredom, to keep the newcomers supplied, price is sticky, nothing happens, it can go on and on,
until it doesn't.
Notable sticky periods would be 2009-6/2010 (<0.01 all the time, violently broke upwards when MtGox), early 2012 (5), actually all of 2012 (5-13) and mid-2013 (100-130).
If we are not out of the woods by July, perhaps that would trigger more selling. In the end, it does not matter, because adoption will decide the value of bitcoin, and nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come.
783.
Post 6387624 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Without positive news on mtgox front, adoption will slowly fade and bitcoin value will drop to single digit.
In single digits, I will approach parity with Satoshi.
Welcome to the forum!
784.
Post 6389568 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Yawn. Bit is an option to a brave new world. Some of its characteristics:
- Assuming 10 billion people, everybody has a quota of 2,000.
- No inflation
- No storage cost
- No confiscation
- Does not expire
- Your quota costs $1, or a little less. Previously it was $2, some time last year $0.05.
- If you want to be shrewd, buy the quota of others because they scorn it, and sell it to them when the price is right.
Anything that happens before just has to happen.
785.
Post 6393340 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
So here is your last chance to get coins for <500.00
You will never see bitcoin prices much lower than this again. It might go slightly lower and may even retest the last low at around 350.00 but this is buy zone if you haven't already. You can quote me on this and thank me later when we are at 10,000 plus in a few short months. China is only an excuse and mars can easily be reached without her. Don't believe the hype.
Where have I heard that before? Oh wait, $600.
I heard it at $800 and even $1000
I heard it at $0.25 (per bitcoin), and various times after that. Sometimes there was an opportunity, sometimes not. Generally not.
786.
Post 6404194 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.
Chart1 &
Chart2.
This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).
787.
Post 6404635 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.
Chart1 &
Chart2.
This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).
No PMs. Lets talk openly. What kind a bet? For how much about 1BTC? Or 1 oz gold coin?
Resolved after 3 months or if it goes below.
What odds?
Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again
I prefer to make my bets by my position in market rather than with people directly, but do you really think that if a Chinese exchange came out now and either confirmed the news or even worse announced they were closing that we wouldn't drop $20?
Anything can always happen. Why I am touting
this matter
now, is that I believe I have a higher confidence that it won't happen than the others. If everybody agreed that the likelihood for that (hitting 435 again) is exactly 87.3%, there would be no betting and no fun.
(It is not easy to bet the long side, because the best bet is always to just buy bitcoins.)
788.
Post 6406520 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
In 2014-3-30, the exponential trendline model gave a buy signal at $460 and the price has been unable to go below it for any extended time even after 4 weeks.
In 2013-11-23 it gave a sell signal at $872 (SlipperySlope's 0.40 confidence) or 2013-11-28 at $1,056 (my 0.45 confidence). It was also unable to stay above it for any extended time.
789.
Post 6406773 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Not denying that. I just have the feeling the market wants to go up but gets stopped because this shit every time.
Perhaps it does, but that is only possible because there is so little determination with the buyers. As long as they wait, the price stays low. When they start to pre-empt each other, it rises. It may (
and likely will) take months before it happens. The bottom, however, is established here, it is not $200. Every week brings more certainty to that.
With $100 million of new money who are not satisfied with anything else but Bitcoins, the market would be $100 or so higher.
With $1 billion, we would be nearing ATH.
In our runup to $5,000, about $6 billion of fresh money need to be invested. None of us has this money. It is the new generation.
If you are unsure whether Bitcoin receives this "financing round" or not, just take confidence in the fact that everyone in the world can participate, there are no minimums, no maximums, no lock-in periods, and the "company" has no burn rate and its economy becomes better even while waiting for the capital injection.
790.
Post 6407279 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Isn't there is some sort of 'burn rate' as capital get's reallocated to miners and mining companies?
Good point.
791.
Post 6407775 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
In 2014-3-30, the exponential trendline model gave a buy signal at $460 and the price has been unable to go below it for any extended time even after 4 weeks.
In 2013-11-23 it gave a sell signal at $872 (SlipperySlope's 0.40 confidence) or 2013-11-28 at $1,056 (my 0.45 confidence). It was also unable to stay above it for any extended time.
What odds do you want? As I would be betting to win less valuable coin, you shouldn't get much better than 50%.
I think you will offer an
unreasonable bet so that you don't have to make one at all.
But let me know.
Unreasonable? It's $30 to the trigger line (was $20 when I first called it). Are
you willing to give 1:1 odds to me that price will hit $495 some point in the future? Of course not, you would not take that even at 10:1. So don't expect the same of me.
792.
Post 6408024 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
In 2014-3-30, the exponential trendline model gave a buy signal at $460 and the price has been unable to go below it for any extended time even after 4 weeks.
In 2013-11-23 it gave a sell signal at $872 (SlipperySlope's 0.40 confidence) or 2013-11-28 at $1,056 (my 0.45 confidence). It was also unable to stay above it for any extended time.
What odds do you want? As I would be betting to win less valuable coin, you shouldn't get much better than 50%.
I think you will offer an
unreasonable bet so that you don't have to make one at all.
But let me know.
Unreasonable? It's $30 to the trigger line (was $20 when I first called it). Are
you willing to give 1:1 odds to me that price will hit $495 some point in the future? Of course not, you would not take that even at 10:1. So don't expect the same of me.
Lol. You didn't even make an offer. Why am I not surprised?
Since you are too chicken s***
to make a bet, here's one for you.
Bet 100 btc
Duration 30 days
If we hit 435 on Stamp and don't hit 500 I win.
If we hit 500 and not 435 you win
If we hit both or neither its a draw. And we donate 1 btc each to charity.
- Mutually agreed escrow holds coins from both from the beginning to the end
- 90 days
- I propose NewLiberty
- (Since the bet amount is so large and therefore foul play possible, I will require 2 bank days to set up my defences)
793.
Post 6408144 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
2 bank days?
thats in like 100hours
bitcoin will be at 520 by then!
That is because Bitstamp.
windjc need 1.1M to take it to 435.
I need 1.45M for 500.
If he has lots of money, he will catch my bid at 435.01, and I will lose the bet unless 30 days turns it back up. Buying slippage-free at such a good price is still ok, but losing a bet hurts my pretty face.
794.
Post 6408323 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
windjc is wealthy?
I think so..
795.
Post 6408518 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
windjc is wealthy?
not for long, if he takes the bet
This is great bet
Maybe he can bet with me too?
I want $50 free money
Before anything else happens, we must agree on escrow, and both send the bet money to him.
Then finish the rules of the bet, which may require changes if price changes now for example. Also the 2 days is important. (windjc can also transfer money if he wants). Typically it's just too difficult to agree on things, but this is quite promising <thumbsup>
Joking aside, the bet is not fair to rpietila. Just look at the 1d charts (I've let 1 month of space ahead):
In 2014, only 8 days have hit $435.
If it hits both 435 and 500, it is a tie.
90 days is a long time, I would say it's near certain to hit 500 and about 80% certain to hit 435.
I don't think it is unfair to me.
796.
Post 6408871 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Can I put in a short position of 1M USD with 1:17 leverage? Platform is plus500.
Thats ~ 38000btc
Will it make a dent?
I was thinking of that. First off - I don't think they offer more than 2:1 leverage, they got burnt pretty badly in the runup in Nov-13.
Second, the slippage you take is about equal to the bet amount, unless you can start an avalanche (which I don't believe).
Third, the bet is not won by just hitting the opposite goal. You need to defend yours for 90 days.
=> You can perhaps use this to make the final push and manipulate the market as usual, but not make it +EV for you
797.
Post 6408883 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
I do NOT understand why 2 days is necessary to solidify, but it may just be that you are hedging your bet which is fine if a person can recognize ways to hedge.
2 days is needed to transfer enough fiat to Bitstamp and possible other platforms that might be used to alter the bet's outcome.
798.
Post 6409003 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Thanks, I will use that during the runup $1,000->$5,000. With 10:1 leverage and 1 million initial investment, that'll be... 40M profit.
799.
Post 6409609 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Thanks, I will use that during the runup $1,000->$5,000. With 10:1 leverage and 1 million initial investment, that'll be... 40M profit.
I doubt that you'll ever get that kind of money from those guys. They're like a grown up version of mtgox.
Risto will know me by now.
I had a LARGE buy position there last year. With leverage of 1:10.
They phoned me and basically kissed my ass to close my positions. We agreed I close them, they paid
my money. Every cent. 2-3 business days. They also change te leverage to 1:2 and later 1:1.
Plus500 is listed in London stock excange. Always worked fine.
I use it for gold trading. Last week made about 200.000€ profit.
I confirm that I have heard this story before from a person who has verified his identity.
800.
Post 6417294 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Look. The bet is for 30 days. Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hedge his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing. In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.
This guy has transmutated the bet from (high payout to me if $435 is nevereveragain seen) to a spread ($435 and $500 and mostly it'll be a tie anyway, with only 1:1 odds and a short expiration time).
90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.
Okay.
No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.
Here our definition of "honor" is different. Market is defined as an aggregate of the actions of participants. Since there is no way to find out who is doing what, but the aggregate result (price) is visible, the supposed oaths to not manipulate the market can only hurt the honest ones and should therefore not be demanded.
801.
Post 6417875 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
So, rpietelia is doing another one of his "well never see this level again" bets? Like the last one about $500?
What do you want?
802.
Post 6418587 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.
Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.
Go check from post history who proposed the bet (me) and then
choose yourself (10:1 to me if goes to 435 in 90 days). It is entirely ok to not participate in discussion, but to
insist that I take a bet that I did not propose is.. well.. fitting for you.
803.
Post 6419013 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.
Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.
Go check from post history who proposed the bet (me) and then
choose yourself (10:1 to me if goes to 435 in 90 days). It is entirely ok to not participate in discussion, but to
insist that I take a bet that I did not propose is.. well.. fitting for you.
If you do NOT like the current state of the bet, then you should propose counter-terms that you are willing to accept.. rather than complaining about Windjc's counter-terms.
If you really are serious about taking a bet then you have to work with possible options and it seems that Windjc's terms were within the bounds of reason... and probably tweakable.
30 days does not embody the full epicness of saying "never" when we are talking about the trigger being only $20 below the the price today. Also I don't want to change my 10:1 leverage to an arbitrary $500 especially as both agree than in P(98%) it will be hit in 90 days anyway. These are the changes. It seems clear that once again if you are bullish on bitcoin, the best odds you get by buying it. If you are bearish, then you have a few weeks/months in the sun, and then you are replaced with a new generation. And I have seen many.
804.
Post 6419419 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
subject does NOT necessarily need to be complicated with odds and a whole lot of various ambiguous terms.
Now you are childish.
Poker players raise if they have 52/48 but not if it is 48/52.
I am calculating 90% odds for the certain outcome. If you think the odds are 95%, you should bet with me for +EV.
50% is obviously not same as 90%.
I am tired of writing to people who don't know about betting enough to justify opening their mouth but nevertheless do it.
So no bets here. The other thread will perhaps develop into a probability machine where you will always be able to check if your feeling corresponds with the majority, and bet with the ones who think the opposite.
805.
Post 6420207 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Trying to keep it short:
crank down the amount of the bet, if the amount bothers you
If the bet is +EV for me, I try to bet as much as possible, bounded by the Kelly formula of course. If it is -EV, I don't bet anything.
the money should just be a side issue, just to give assurance that you are willing to put some skin in the game
No thanks. I bet to win, if at all.
Windjc would be willing to give you some odds.
Too late. He had ample time.
you, Rpietila, used the word "never" which implies that you think 100%, so you should be more than willing to bet 50% odds when you make such a statement.
"never" is part of the event clause: ( P("bitcoin will never go to 435") = X% ).
Never was it indicated that X equals 0%.
806.
Post 6421790 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Some basics if you want to use the exponential trendline, or contend against its use. Two things must be observed:
- The base value of the trendline
- The deviation of the current price from the trend, expressed in log10 units (1 unit = price is 90% lower or 900% higher).
The range where the deviation typically wanders, which is seen as booms and crashes in the price chart, is -0.4...0.5 log units.
In 2014-7-15, for example:
-0.4 => $0.75
-0.3 => $0.95
-0.2 => $1.20
-0.1 => $1.53
0.0 => $1.94
+0.1 => $2.47
+0.2 => $3.10
+0.3 => $3.95
+0.4 => $4.90
+0.5 => $6.30.
This is a very wide range (basically a whole order of magnitude), so the trendline price in any future point cannot very accurately predict what the actual price in that point is. In the short term, the obscene range makes it useless, in the longer term, there are other uncertainties.
What it can do, however, is to gauge the buy and sell zones, which are points where the current price deviates from the trendline price significantly. At present we are in buy zone, because the current price is about -0.35 log units below the trendline price. Similarly in November we were in sell zone when the current price was over 0.4 units above.
The next sell signal comes when the price goes to 0.4 the next time, and it is unlikely to happen before July, so it is likewise unlikely for the top to be any lower than $5k.
In 2013-11-23 it gave a sell signal at $872. The buy signal came in 2014-3-30 at $460.
For the funds that were thus risked, the return was +90% in 4 months.
807.
Post 6422725 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Every exponential price trend that grows faster than population, inflation, and total economic output must perforce cease to hold at some point. Unchecked, a 10x increase per year would mean that 1 BTC would buy the whole Earth within a few decades.
So, the question is not IF, but WHEN will Bitcoin's price stop following the historic exponential trend?
(Do I need to post again the Worldcom price chart? It followed an exponential trend much more closely and for a longer time than Bitcoin so far...)
Price trends should not be trusted without undersanding the fundamentals behind them. Some bulls here have their explanation for Bitcoins historical exponential trend. I have mine, The conclusions seem to be very different...
I think we can agree on the following:
- If Bitcoin never makes it big and does not grow over its current 0.02% adoption of the target, it fails, and price per unit may collapse even from the present level.
- If it does make big and its adoption grows to even 500 million people, the price per unit is multiples of what it now is.
The domain of speculation is in whether it has the muscle to grow or not. Until now it has had. I think it still does. You think it does not.
808.
Post 6423679 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Get it into your head: If (for whatever independent reasons) we will stay below that trendline long enough, it will look substantially different from the one you constructed right now.
This would not have warranted a reply, except to refute once again the matter that he seemingly cannot get or cannot remember, no matter how many times it is repeated (note the rare use of dark green combined with bold):
The "rpietila exponential trendline" is updated regularly (monthly) with the latest data, so if the price is below the trendline for a month, it drags the trendline with it. If it is above, the trendline is also dragged upwards. Monthly is chosen due to the reason that for all practical purposes it is the same as updating it every day. During its active existence in this forum, it has been updated 8 times and the updates applied respectively.
ADD: OK, it seems I am again being too verbal
TL;DR: You are wrong. And butthurt.
809.
Post 6424139 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
The problem with your log-linear model isn't that it's not updated regularly. I know you do that.
The problem is the *extreme* laggyness of the model, and how you intend to use it. By the time your regression picks up the fact that we are in a huge bear market*, it is already much too late.
The log-linear trend can maybe, if you insist, be used to get an idea of the order of magnitude of the expected price, assuming nothing about the growth function up to now has fundamentally changed. And even then you should remind people that it is no guarantee either, just a reasonably motivated model.
I agree. Is there a point of controversy?
810.
Post 6424279 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Eg.with Auroracoin the slope is already negative. Linear regression could not prevent it.
811.
Post 6425028 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Eg.with Auroracoin the slope is already negative. Linear regression could not prevent it.
Hm, that points out a problem with using linear regression on all the monthly points.
Suppose two items A, B that start out both at the same price 1$. Item A then grows steadily to 1000$ over 2 years. Item B shoots up to 2000$ on the first month and then decays steadily to 1000$ in the next 23 months.
Linear regression will give a positive slope for item A and a negative slope for item B, even though both increased by a factor of 1000 over that time span.
On the other hand, consider item C that starts out at 1000$, drops to 1$ on the first month and recovers steadily to 1000$ over the next 23 months. Linear regression would give positive slope.
These examples do not prove that linear regression is "wrong", but should make one aware that its meaning is not what one may think.
"
Your results are not right. They are not even wrong." --some famous scientist reviewing the work of some colleague
Do you happen to like it in the academia when somebody who has no experience on the subject that you have been researching for months, uses childish non-real world examples to prove that in some cases the model you have been researching and using with incredible precision, would give strange results?
I consider such a person a menace, but luckily Bitcoin will teach him.
812.
Post 6426793 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Here is a thought experiment: imagine that tomorrow everybody somehow "knows" that the price of bitcoin would never increase, but that the price of bitcoin would never decrease either. It is simply a fact that 1 BTC will forever buy the same basket of goods. Would you expect world-wide demand to hold bitcoin to increase or decrease?
Increase, by a large multiple!
Bitcoin is more useful than fiat currency, and as its value would forever be stable against goods (like gold's value is, even though gold cannot be transacted), there would be no risk in holding bitcoins. I would imagine that perhaps 10,000x today's number of bitcoin would be demanded by the market.
813.
Post 6427023 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Dat wall at 435 has scared everybody for like 3 hours already
814.
Post 6434210 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Without any prior introduction, I posted the following. Because no prior info was given, this must be treated as the sole expression of my wish:
Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.
Chart1 &
Chart2.
This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).
Keywords:
- (implicit) in BTC
- (implicit) long duration at least 3 months (to adequately model "ever")
- trigger condition
breaching 435 - someone (anyone can take it!)
- send me
PM-
much better than 1:1 odds for meWindjc's proposal:
In 2014-3-30, the exponential trendline model gave a buy signal at $460 and the price has been unable to go below it for any extended time even after 4 weeks.
In 2013-11-23 it gave a sell signal at $872 (SlipperySlope's 0.40 confidence) or 2013-11-28 at $1,056 (my 0.45 confidence). It was also unable to stay above it for any extended time.
What odds do you want? As I would be betting to win less valuable coin, you shouldn't get much better than 50%.
I think you will offer an
unreasonable bet so that you don't have to make one at all.
But let me know.
Unreasonable? It's $30 to the trigger line (was $20 when I first called it). Are
you willing to give 1:1 odds to me that price will hit $495 some point in the future? Of course not, you would not take that even at 10:1. So don't expect the same of me.
Lol. You didn't even make an offer. Why am I not surprised?
Since you are too chicken s***
to make a bet, here's one for you.
Bet $50k with of btc
Duration 30 days
If we hit 435 on Stamp and don't hit 500 I win.
If we hit 500 and not 435 you win
If we hit both or neither its a draw. And we both donate $1000 worth of btc each to charity.
Keywords:
- in USD
- short duration 30 days
- trigger condition
breaching 435 and
breaching 500, with both/neither considered a tie (windjc's estimation 90% this will end in a tie)
- aimed
for me only, with insult
-
public-
1:1 odds, with charity clause* *
EPILOGUE
It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it. This windjc turned into a public challenge directed against me, with different terms in every 6 parameters that are important in a bet.
The bet itself seemed +EV for me so I decided to go on with it, but in the end there was not enough mutual agreement. As was perhaps the intention, windjc collected "fame" because I did not took his bet (why? do I also get points every time I propose things to people when it is not in their interest to comply?
).
In the meanwhile
nobody took my bet (the one which i would have unequivocally lost last night). Nobody was even interested. I had estimated that probability for 435 holding should be 10% in general public's eyes, but I thought it was 20%. So I would have taken 7:1 odds for me, and lost almost straight away.
815.
Post 6434463 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Rpietila
Water under the bridge. You are a smart guy and have been right alot before. Given current conditions, including 1 day macd turning down, china falling apart, breach of major supports - i woulld be very intersted in hearing from both of you thoughts on the next 72 hours.
The low is reached when everybody thinks it will go lower.
The explosive uptrend will start when everybody are sure that the low has been reached (typically months before).
Most of us await a new low or at least retest of 340. So it will not go to the moon yet, but perhaps it means that the low is in place.
I have no idea what will happen this weekend.
816.
Post 6434500 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not.
817.
Post 6436235 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.
He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.
If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?
Which part of the
Call to Bet was difficult to understand?
Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.
Chart1 &
Chart2.
This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).
Perhaps you fit in the description in my Lamentation...
EPILOGUE
It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it.
Have you noticed that not a single person with high standing has criticized me? It is the same trolls over and over, twisting simple and clear words, or teens with fingers hard-wired to bypass the brain.
818.
Post 6437099 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
actually the argument was invalid, alongside this beautiful red herring you have presented to me. Risto is not 100% certain that bitcoin is going to be adopted by the entire world. you set up the argument as a strawman - or where do you get your facts?
He is not certain about that? Well, maybe you should ask him on what does he think about that.
He estimates that there is an insanely high 1% chance that Bitcoin will reach 1,000,000 dollars per
BTC.
That is 10k$/
BTC expected value from that scenario alone. And the others are not all zero either.
As people learn about this insanely profitable risky bet offered to them, they buy in, mostly very little, because losing does not hurt, but winning changes their life.
When enough people buy, the price rises. Now we are closer to 1,000,000 and the probability to reach it therefore goes up.
This allows more people to buy, because less risk.
In the end, when the recursion is totally played out, the probability to hit an insanely high valuation of $1 million (or higher) is something like 20%.
And when you see and understand the above, it makes you even more willing to buy even more NOW, increasing the price and ...
819.
Post 6437190 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Current holders intuitively know it.
To make new money interested, we have to tell it.
It is a bit tricky, because it employs recursive probability.
820.
Post 6437763 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Without any prior introduction, I posted the following. Because no prior info was given, this must be treated as the sole expression of my wish:
Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.
Chart1 &
Chart2.
This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).
Keywords:
- (implicit) in BTC
- (implicit) long duration at least 3 months (to adequately model "ever")
- trigger condition
breaching 435 - someone (anyone can take it!)
- send me
PM-
much better than 1:1 odds for meWindjc's proposal:
In 2014-3-30, the exponential trendline model gave a buy signal at $460 and the price has been unable to go below it for any extended time even after 4 weeks.
In 2013-11-23 it gave a sell signal at $872 (SlipperySlope's 0.40 confidence) or 2013-11-28 at $1,056 (my 0.45 confidence). It was also unable to stay above it for any extended time.
What odds do you want? As I would be betting to win less valuable coin, you shouldn't get much better than 50%.
I think you will offer an
unreasonable bet so that you don't have to make one at all.
But let me know.
Unreasonable? It's $30 to the trigger line (was $20 when I first called it). Are
you willing to give 1:1 odds to me that price will hit $495 some point in the future? Of course not, you would not take that even at 10:1. So don't expect the same of me.
Lol. You didn't even make an offer. Why am I not surprised?
Since you are too chicken s***
to make a bet, here's one for you.
Bet $50k with of btc
Duration 30 days
If we hit 435 on Stamp and don't hit 500 I win.
If we hit 500 and not 435 you win
If we hit both or neither its a draw. And we both donate $1000 worth of btc each to charity.
Keywords:
- in USD
- short duration 30 days
- trigger condition
breaching 435 and
breaching 500, with both/neither considered a tie (windjc's estimation 90% this will end in a tie)
- aimed
for me only, with insult
-
public-
1:1 odds, with charity clause* *
EPILOGUE
It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it. This windjc turned into a public challenge directed against me, with different terms in every 6 parameters that are important in a bet.
The bet itself seemed +EV for me so I decided to go on with it, but in the end there was not enough mutual agreement. As was perhaps the intention, windjc collected "fame" because I did not took his bet (why? do I also get points every time I propose things to people when it is not in their interest to comply?
).
In the meanwhile
nobody took my bet (the one which i would have unequivocally lost last night). Nobody was even interested. I had estimated that probability for 435 holding should be 10% in general public's eyes, but I thought it was 20%. So I would have taken 7:1 odds for me, and lost almost straight away.
I don't care about the bet.
If everybody took that much space just to state that a particular topic does not interest him, this thread would be 6465 pages long.. oh wait
What have you learned from it?
That scenario thinking and probabilities are very hard to understand for many people, even in threads dedicated to it. Further education is necessary, but any serious and accountable predictions by anyone should be taken
here, with a consistent and uniform methodology, and
cash prizes (all entry fees go to the pot + my 1,000m
BTC bounty and perhaps windjc's also..)
821.
Post 6437878 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
As I saw it, I'm smoking Romeo y Julieta Petit Churchills, have a 27" Mac screen on mahogany table, solid silver ashtray, same shoes as in the picture, and thinking of the next (III) Supernode meeting in Malla in June. So, it is kind of affirmative, don't you think?
822.
Post 6451737 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
What price will bitcoin be at the end of 2014
A larger-and-more-accurate-than-ever way to find out is just starting!
Cash prizes!
823.
Post 6452650 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
My break-even price is $0, so I'm gonna be around here for a while
My break even price is -($2500)
Congrats. Mine is only -(low 3 figures).
824.
Post 6453432 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
My break-even price is $0, so I'm gonna be around here for a while
My break even price is -($2500)
Congrats. Mine is only -(low 3 figures).
I am currently only 20% btc though. If I went 100% btc (like you probably are), it would be 3 figures also. It's kind of a misleading number because I could be 2% btc and have 5 figures, etc.
I am closer to 50% than 100%, and all the time thinking of ways how to increase my stash (I don't need more money but cannot help it because I perceive this as the last life-changing buying opportunity for an ordinary guy). Perhaps somebody would like to buy PUT options for any maturity up to 90 days, any strike between 100-500 and any quantity up to
BTC500?
PM only.
825.
Post 6453710 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
I am closer to 50% than 100%, and all the time thinking of ways how to increase my stash (I don't need more money but cannot help it because I perceive this as the last life-changing buying opportunity for an ordinary guy). Perhaps somebody would like to buy PUT options for any maturity up to 90 days, any strike between 100-500 and any quantity up to BTC500? PM only.
Why you don't margin trade then?
I don't know where the price goes. By selling puts I win nevertheless: either I collect the premium, or I get to buy cheap + collect the premium.
The buyer's risk would be limited to the premium paid, and upside is quite good if the price dips, also no need to know when it does.
It's a different strategy for both than margin trading.
826.
Post 6458992 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
A great squeeze is coming: Finex $17.2 million longs beware.
What's the maximum leverage there?
827.
Post 6461605 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
WTF is this at stamp.
I would say - an attempt to sell a lot of coins quickly, and realize the best possible price for them.
828.
Post 6461652 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
WTF is this at stamp.
I would say - an attempt to sell a lot of coins quickly, and realize the best possible price for them.
1. 800 BTC market sell
2. 500 BTC market buy
3. 700 BTC market sell
4. 500 BTC market buy
Yeah, sorry I did not check carefully enough at first. I rephrase my answer:
I don't know. Doesn't seem legit.
829.
Post 6461865 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Again, 700 BTC sell and 500 BTC buy.
Oh yes, somebody mentioned a while ago, that there might be a new super-whale in town. An entity who would like to buy at least 1% of the BTC and is now testing the price sensitivities of the platforms etc. That kind of zig-zag from obviously the same account could be explained by such testing.
830.
Post 6463144 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
In the future 1-2 years from now, people will find it incredible that so much analysis was made over market movements in a dull time when the price hardly even broke the 0.0004-0.0005 channel...
831.
Post 6468852 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
The most relevant fact to me is that people are being given crypto with monetary value and they aren't the ones paying for it. Human nature is such that we don't tend to value things we don't work for. This is why most lottery winners blow the money in a relatively short period of time and people who spend years saving money do not.
+1 This is the reason why:
- No amount of income distribution can ever make the net recipients wealthy.
- Corollary: you cannot start an economy with a currency you just give away without the recipient doing work to receive it.
832.
Post 6469241 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
The most relevant fact to me is that people are being given crypto with monetary value and they aren't the ones paying for it. Human nature is such that we don't tend to value things we don't work for. This is why most lottery winners blow the money in a relatively short period of time and people who spend years saving money do not.
+1 This is the reason why:
- No amount of income distribution can ever make the net recipients wealthy.
- Corollary: you cannot start an economy with a currency you just give away without the recipient doing work to receive it.
From what I understood of the "experiment" it was a way of studying spending habits of a finite group as well as a marketing scheme to diversify current local business models. Both of these can easily be achieved by giving away non-earned monies. (think of how coupons work)
You are right. If the main goal of the experiment was to gather data, it was gathered regardless if the coin gained value or not. (It is currently trading at $0.6 after visiting $97).
But coupons are not
money. I don't argue whether you can give away some of your wealth to others (you can), but actually no matter whether you use hard currency (gold, bitcoins) or soft currency (state fiat or your own coupons) in the airdrop, getting the others to form a meaningful economy based on it, is very hard.
If people don't have wealth, the reason is that they value other things in life. The valuation does not change if you give them wealth in any form. At most a year, and it is gone (unless it's like million$). The ones that are hoarders, would just hoard the extra wealth, or perhaps spend a small % of it.
But to get them (either spenders or hoarders) to use, invest and make services in this new tehnology, it has (so far) proven to be better that people buy their initial stake themselves, because that "proves" that they are interested, and leads to the optimal allocation of wealth also, with most interested getting and keeping the most.
833.
Post 6471405 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
In a 0...9 scale of relative price, we are now at 0.2.
It is a good opportunity to short.
It's the time to finish the bad traders.
834.
Post 6471959 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
In a 0...9 scale of relative price, we are now at 0.2.
It is a good opportunity to short.
It's the time to finish the bad traders.
you think now is a good time to short? the entire movement of the news has been retraced! we are at critical levels, and everyone still wants cheap coins.
If you are a bad trader, you should short now, because it is the time to get rid of you and move on
835.
Post 6538786 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
Until everyone cries gloom and doom, then this bearish market is over.
That already happened a couple of time as well though. But people always want cheaper coins.
It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.
The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.
836.
Post 6539081 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.
The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.
For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?
The awareness of bitcoin is so much larger now than in the beginning of 2013 that anything can be a catalyst for the next cohort coming:
- If the price crashes really hard like to 100-200, there are millions of people willing to enter (of course at such a low price and fixed number of coins, not millions
can enter..)
- If the price starts to rise, another type of people who look for stability, enter in.
The former leads to the latter. I belonged to the former group who shunned bitcoin in 2011 until it had become ridiculously cheap. Because me and a few (maybe a thousand, or even less, at that time) others bought, the price stabilized at $5 and the rest is history.
So either we somehow start to rise incrementally from here, resulting in an entrance of more and more newcomers, and a bubble, or we first go down, and then rise, resulting in a bubble.
These millions of people who are curious about Bitcoin and are not influenced by the FUD but just observe the price willing to buy low, are the second-last line in saving the price. I think their effect is already in play, and effectively hinders the price from going below 420 unless we are talking about a very high volume. If it is forced below, it will aim to rise back very quickly. This is also observed in the trendlines.
837.
Post 6540264 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
The awareness of bitcoin is so much larger now than in the beginning of 2013 that anything can be a catalyst for the next cohort coming [ ... ] These millions of people who are curious about Bitcoin and are not influenced by the FUD but just observe the price willing to buy low [... ]
How does China fit into this picture? And the growing list of scams and failures of bitcoin-related ventures?
I am just taking the long-term view and big picture. A large percentage have not even heard of china. The list of scams and failed bitcoin ventures is growing every year, so up until now, the correlation with bitcoin price is positive. What I am trying to explain, are the mechanisms that always take Bitcoin up from the abyss where the majority believes that all hope is lost.
Eg. my own purchase was motivated with the following analysis:
- 75% it will go to zero
- 25% it will turn back and reach ATH, in which case I make 10x.
I know there are more people like this in the world, who buy cheaply, don't read news (they are lies) or forums (who would write anything worthwhile), and are expecting to lose all. Nothing can shake them once they have bought. That's the beauty of it
If bitcoin goes down another 6 months, all the coins belong to the likes of me. You still think the price will go down afterwards?
838.
Post 6551064 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
This market is just DYING for some bad news. It can't even keep itself up in anticipation of it.
Maybe so. Let's see how many hours can it keep below 400...
839.
Post 6551426 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
I don't need hours. I need minutes. That how long it takes to sell a bunch of shorts and buy some longs.
I am not man enough to do short speculation in this market. Perhaps going speculatively long is my way to go, or just forget about it until there is low-hanging shortable fruit at $7k...
Meanwhile, while we go to 270 and maybe below, your idea of "buying all the bitcoins" is exactly what we don't need. We need more bitcoins in the hands of more people, not less.
When the price goes down, the ownership concentrates (manipulator/whale accumulation, large speculator buying). It's during the booms that new people buy trickles and coins are dispersed. Both are good to keep the coins in the hands that value them the most.
840.
Post 6551583 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
I don't think a lot of big coin holders are going to buy more coins. Maybe a few.
There might be money on the sidelines, smart people waiting to come in - in a semi-institutional way if the price drops too low.
But if you look closely at the exchanges you can see that its the same players passing the coins back and forth - some losing money (because they are in denial) and some making money (because they aren't).
The total value in the exchanges is less than $1 billion (WAY less). Your observation is very much true concerning the current state of affairs, and there is nothing that would prevent it from continuing several more months. The prediction contest will quite soon (tomorrow, actually) reveal the crowd opinion about when the rise would start. But similarly as there is nothing that could force it go up
now, there is also nothing that can prevent the coming rise
when it is due.
If you think I am amongst those in denial, at least I am seasoned enough not to trade now
841.
Post 6552241 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
For those who are reasonably well-informed about where the price is going,
check out the odds at
this competition:
After your entry, you have 50m
BTC at stake, and there is 1,400m
BTC in the prize pot, divided among 8 contestants.
That's 3.5x return (+250% EV)!Compares pretty well with the negative-sum games of shorting bitcoin..
About 14 hours left.
842.
Post 6553449 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
[50K BTC]
The price has fallen back from the ATH. Last month it hit the low 3xx's. It takes a relatively modest amount of buying to improve the technical picture and break us definitively out of this down trend.
+1
Voice of reason.
The new purchase of
BTC50k for $20M is not a big money for 10,000s of entities, even acting alone.
At this point, it will have a huge impact on price.
We are talking about <1% of all bitcoins. More are not for sale at even close to this price.
843.
Post 6555142 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):
To be clear: There is disagreeing with someone's opinion or analysis, and then there is sticking your fingers into your ears shouting 'I can't hear you'. For more than a month now, the latter is the dominant response in here by the investors that were lulled into a false sense of security by the various loglinear trendlines that keep being posted in here so often.
They will be in for a rude awakening: if they 'hodl' as advised, they will continue to spend many more uncomfortable hours and days seeing their net value decline. If they finally give in and sell, most of them will note that they haven't equipped themselves with the necessary tools to be effective traders, so they will lose as well.
Then there are the people, who calmly see the
BTC holding as the end, and could not care less about its fiat value. 10,000,000m
BTC is a large chunk of the pie, percentagewise something that I could never attain in the crooked fiat world (nor wish to, really).
Then there are those who just don't want to trade.
The thread is full of "everybodies", but almost everybody is not at all emotional towards bitcoin. The median holding is <$1,000, so why bother.
844.
Post 6587223 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
But for right now, we could be stable for many months and that sucks.
I agree. In my wildest dreams from long time ago, I thought bitcoin could start rising in June. Then it was July and ATH in August.
I actually still support that scenario. Talking about Bitcoin, a quarter-year is a quarter-century.
845.
Post 6590929 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
The 2014 Price Prediction Contest shows some interesting results:
The first prediction round results are here!We have 8 entries in the game, and all submitted a prediction for all 8 months (price in last day of May, June, ... December).
The summary of the monthly predictions is as follows:
Arithmetic average is the simple average of the weighted simple average of all the prodictions. The high values affect this a lot, for which reason it is generally rather high figure, even for the nearest months.
Geometric average is the weighted simple average of the geometric average of all the predictions, scaled to 100% (due to geometric averaging, the sum of the geometric averages is only about 50%). This is what I would use as the consensus average.
Median is the midpoint of the probability density (geometric averages used), and would be near the consensus "most likely case".
Mean is the slot with the highest probability (geometric), and would be near the consensus "most likely case" as well.
Months go from May to December. m
BTC, decimal comma.
I will send the "orange sheet" to sgbett and he can distribute it to the contestants.
arith ave 2,08 2,57 3,08 3,68 4,35 4,97 5,96 7,47
geom ave 0,58 0,68 0,77 0,92 1,06 1,17 1,90 3,19
median 0,47 0,53 0,6 0,67 0,67 0,75 0,84 0,94
mode 0,47 0,47 0,47 0,53 0,53 0,53 0,6 0,75
Taking a simple average of all the predictions, we are forecasted to be at $7.5 (add 000 if you still want to stick to whole bitcoins despite the poll results) at the close of the year. By using geometric averages, which penalize the outlier predictions, the price would be only $3.2
The geometric average is forecasted to grow quite steadily until October, resulting in a 2.5x gain in 6 months from current levels. Compared to the trendline, this would result in the price languishing at about -0.4 or less for all this time, before the turn.
Median (same probability below and above this price) shows even more contained increase with a 10% monthly gain on average.
Even worse for the mode. The most probable (according to forecasters) single price slot for the next 6 months is only around $0.5.
846.
Post 6608714 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
$30 isn't a lot, true. However, it's the velocity of the rise that gives me pause. There has been no resistance.
Now, that would make sense to me if traders who would normally short this "oversell" are afraid to enter shorts them might lose on in the next two days.
Meanwhile, people just hodl.
0.17% of bitcoins were traded (Bitstamp only) since 420 to effect a 6.8% price rise. The price inelasticity of supply is 39:1.
We have been enjoying the "sticky price" era for some weeks. Once the supply is no longer there, the tiniest demand kicks us out of the channel, very likely resulting in a snowball effect, so many times before seen with Bitcoin.
847.
Post 6616240 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
Algorithm would have performed very well from Dec 1st 2013:
TIME OF TRADE RATE S/BUY B GAIN USD BTC
1.12.2013 4:00 1024,00 -1 102 400 0,00
7.12.2013 2:00 748,99 1 37 % 0 136,72
11.12.2013 10:0 852,50 -1 116 552 0,00
19.12.2013 8:00 605,00 1 41 % 0 192,65
20.12.2013 22:0 610,00 -1 117 515 0,00
22.12.2013 8:00 652,86 1 -7 % 0 180,00
7.1.2014 20:00 823,00 -1 152 030 0,00
14.2.2014 2:00 595,00 1 38 % 0 255,51
20.2.2014 6:00 601,10 -1 153 589 0,00
22.2.2014 16:00 603,98 1 0 % 0 254,29
24.2.2014 2:00 574,97 -1 146 211 0,00
26.2.2014 6:00 594,98 1 -3 % 0 245,74
4.3.2014 16:00 675,61 -1 166 026 0,00
1.4.2014 6:00 481,01 1 40 % 0 345,16
2.4.2014 12:00 469,95 -1 162 208 0,00
14.4.2014 4:00 427,50 1 10 % 0 379,43
16.4.2014 8:00 515,00 -1 195 409 0,00
8.5.2014 16:00 442,50 1 16 % 0 441,60
So guys, with only 17 trades, performed after the triggers (perhaps
BTC500 could have been used without affecting the market too much - even thousands with some planning, delay, and slippage), you would have 4.5x'd your bitcoins or made almost double your dollars, in a falling market.
I also checked the same rules in a rising market. They did not work, I could barely make it return positive bitcoins over 1 year. The problem is that in the rising market the selloffs come viciously and up it goes with stable medium volume. So this interprets the periodic selloffs as the important events and loses out on runups.
848.
Post 6620069 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
Always good to have free adspace
849.
Post 6620319 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
Once I sold an excelsheet for EUR 6,000... no, actually it was my friend, but he taught me how to do it. It had cost 500 to make it however. So we sold it to some other guys as well to cover the costs.
ADD: The graph was included in the price.
850.
Post 6620731 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
LOL, in that case some people would pay you a lot for contact info of these buyers - or to do their marketing.
The sheet was full of data of course. Funny that people ridicule excelsheets, even though very often they are the absolutely easiest way to do some thing, and even when not, it is generally possible to do everything with Excel.
Just found out that the same parameters would have earned you 3.4x bitcoins between April and July, 2013..
851.
Post 6620782 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
I can convert your spreadsheet to a code and implement it (python, C++...) for 0.06
BTC (max 10 lines)
I can also implement a small company network with all needed windows server (2012 optional) AD, DHCP, DNS all included for 6
BTCI can set up your blog/site based on woomerce/wordpress from scratch and admin it for one month for 6
BTCI can..... do real fucking job for 6
BTC that can change the way you do things
Just today I have ordered web hosting for 0.3
BTC/yr, hotel reservation system for 10
BTC+10
BTC/yr, webpages for 10
BTC, but some of the above services I still need - what a shame that you are such a difficult person
852.
Post 6620855 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
Never underestimate the lucrativeness of scamming fools.
Who is being scammed in
this thread that shows very interesting visions of Bitcoin price development for all who care to see?
853.
Post 6620913 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
you think of me as difficult I think of my self as a correct person, you think I do this for fun but I think I do it to spread awareness....
Okay since we both want awareness, let's not generate it by strife (unless absolutely necessary).
For several months I haven't cared about making money. But now the price is going so low that it soon makes sense to earn something because it will have a noticeable impact in my finances. So I am setting up the trading desk that I abandoned in February. It was not my idea to sell the sheet, as you can see someone asked me.
854.
Post 6626178 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday May 09
Have you kept records, how is this method working? Always interested in something accountable..
855.
Post 6626240 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
Like the coins that you allegedly lost by taking an unsecured laptop to an sauna party, where it got stolen.
Source?
856.
Post 6626817 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
Like the coins that you allegedly lost by taking an unsecured laptop to an sauna party, where it got stolen.
Source?
Not sure if your intention is to troll the troll, but to be fair I read that post of yours too last year.
Let's take it seriously: the person above claims that:
allegedly = there is a source other than himself that propagates this version of the story
lost = the number of my bitcoins went irrevocably down as a result of this action
by taking an unsecured laptop to a sauna = (the non-contested part)
where it got stolen = the laptop was taken by someone
To retain truthfulness of speech, you cannot just add untrue elements to a sentence that has
some truth in it. The result will become untrue, and you will become a liar, and who will listen to you any more?
857.
Post 6627907 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
The sauna was chosen as the security room because of its location (in
this satellite photo, it is the building in the tip of "Ennäsudden", with only 60° sector towards the land, and 300° to the sea with big windows all around. One man could spot any intruders from 100 meters away and we planned on having a guard there for the time when we it would otherwise been empty. The management of the hotel was informed of the special needs, they rented this out for the entire duration of the conference....
....and something went horribly wrong the very first night, when the hotel staff not only forced us to move to other rooms in violation to the previous understanding, but also visited the sauna multiple times, and also stole our stuff there.
It was greatly stressful to be unsure whether the laptop was copied or not (and I still don't know), but the bitcoins were later counted and I cannot say conclusively whether any were stolen. I am leaning towards the scenario that the management made a big blunder, and failed in the aftermath. The thief was a hotel cleaning lady, and that the laptop was probably not touched.
Bottom line: I don't know. In my hotel there will be a security manager, and if we agree on security with a customer, it will be delivered. Simple. (Should be)
858.
Post 6628272 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
but the bitcoins were later counted and I cannot say conclusively whether any were stolen. I am leaning towards the scenario that the management made a big blunder, and failed in the aftermath. The thief was a hotel cleaning lady, and that the laptop was probably not touched.
What the F*** does that mean?
That I cannot say
for sure, that
any of the bitcoins were stolen, which means that
in high probability none of them were.
859.
Post 6628437 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
The whole thing is still within the bounds of "extreme incompetence is indistinguishable from malice" so that if the cleaning lady was pilfering on her own account, there needs to be no other malignant actor in the game. It sure felt paranoid at that time, because I had no reason to expect extreme incompetence (nor malice, of course) from a hotel that I had patroned for over 10 years.
As a comparison, Hotel Kämp, which is the only $2,000+ hotel in Finland, also failed in many counts, but I had no reason to expect better, so it was not suspicious, just sad. (And yes, Justin Bieber occupied the small room just next to us.)
860.
Post 6629359 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
You didn't answer any of my questions. If you still have your coins they were never "stolen." Only you computer was stolen.
I feel the pressure to answer only the questions that I wish to. I am not doing this to please you but to edify the lurkers, remember.
As I told in the very detailed report to the hotel management already after the event (quoted here also just a while ago):
- laptop was left in the secure room but the security was breached by the hotel (and possibly others)
- it was there when we found out
- our immediate investigation could not conclude if bitcoin keys were stolen or not (other stuff
was missing)
- the hotel was incensed that I had investigation going on and them to blame
- we had a Saturday morning top meeting with their CEO, me, and aides of both
- conclusion was that they allow only police to conduct crime investigation, which in my opinion would have profited nothing
- they told us to go to hell in the earliest opportunity
- after complying, the bitcoins were secured and we did not find any transfers made in the meanwhile
- the sauna was deducted from the bill and officially all is fine
- I am building a new hotel, much bigger, better and more secure, so that the matter should not trouble us anymore.
861.
Post 6629767 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
So you never lost shit. You didn't even lose your computer. Yet, you came on the forum and announced that your bitcoin was stolen.
Now I try hard to minimize the risk to the well-being of anyone, and to raise the stakes in the game described as follows: if someone actually copied the private keys there (I had access to over 6000 bitcoins unencrypted, open in my computer browser windows during the time it was compromised), he will have to suffer the fact becoming public in its entirety + all the details, if he spends the bitcoins before I have the time to spend them myself. Due to extensive precautions involved, it will take me approximately a week of calendar time + several thousand dollars, to fully ensure that the bitcoins are safe, by sending them to uncompromised addresses. I plan to concentrate on that during this week.
(emphasis added)
Ok, idiot. Sorry for having so much long-suffering for you, ever since your infamous entrance to the forum a few months ago. Try to read and understand the bolded part and reason, what might have been the reason for the forum disclosure above
in the midst of the action,
without having the knowledge if keys were copied or not. HINT: it is in
red.
You SHOULD try to please me. And the rest of us by being honest.
You are too stupid to be pleased. A fool and his bitcoins soon part. I just hope that you don't cause collateral damage to your loved ones in the process.
Ignored.
862.
Post 6630711 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.43h):
I think there are ways to confirm that the accounts were not add up : history of trades and deposits
But that data is not public, and only the police can obtain it from the banks themselves. If Sunlot does the investigation, instead of the police, they will have to trust the MtGOX records, and they can ignore even that information and reach any conclusion that they want.
I think only one depositor is needed to sue them in criminal court. It is afaik not possible for a consensus vote to override this fundamental right of the crime victims.
863.
Post 6655447 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Why is [ Sunlot's plan ] better than giving clients the full 20%, so that they can invest those same 10% into Apple stock instead? The clients will surely recover their 90% back much faster this way.
no.
apple isnt about to grow 5x
apple pays out about 1% a year in dividends
so it would probably take like 50-90years.
Well, how much dividend will the MtGOX 2.0 shares pay per year, as percentage of investment?
There is no way of estimating how much trade they would get. Why would people trade there rather than at Bitstamp or other exchanges? Why would people trust their dollars and bitcoins to people who have an even more, er, peculiar past than Mark?
The motivations of the Sunlot team could be
all or any of (1) get their hands on those 200'000 BTC with no legally binding commitment to returning them to clients; (2) let Mr. Gay-Bouchery and Mr. Karpelès get away, free and rich; (3) make sure that the assets are distributed according to the (bogus?) balances in Mark's database rather than actual deposits minus withdrawals; (5) pre-empt a police investigation that could find the real culprits for the theft; (5) earn points for the afterlife and a boy-scout medal by helping poor MtGOX clients to recoup a little more of their loss than they would through liquidation. Have a guess...
EDIT: as for Apple, I don't know currently, but until some years ago they reinvested most of their profits into factories, shops and such; so stockholders got their returns through the increased value of their shares rather than dividends. Even if the MtGOX2.0 shares are real equity (rather than the "profit-only shares" of Neo&Bee), the company will have negligible assets of its own, so shares are unlikely to grow in value.
Very good points.
The idea that 200,000 BTC buy 20% of a startup with no much chance for success is absolutely incredulous. That would put the whole startup's value at 1,000,000 BTC. As a startup entrepreneur myself, I know that a qualified mgmt team is able to value themselves at $5 million at the first round. In this case the mgmt would get 5% of the new exchange and the creditors 95%. Even then I don't know of anyone who would take the deal instead of just taking their bitcoins back (the little that remains).
A criminal investigation must be pursued also. The blockchain will be completely analyzed sooner or later and the thieves will be caught. It is better for everyone that they be caught now.
864.
Post 6656172 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Any bets on the bottom for the weekend? I am hoping for 400 at least.
The dearth of sellers is palpable.
865.
Post 6658828 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Any bets on the bottom for the weekend? I am hoping for 400 at least.
The dearth of sellers is palpable.
Same goes for volume. Does not mean much.
The downtrend has been in force due to sellers overriding buyers. If the volume dries up, it is because the sellers are exhausted. The price is nascent despite the low volume. I would abstain from shorting here.
The trailing 4-week change is positive first time since February. My last call of 435 bottom was off by $14.87 so let's try to call another one here.
866.
Post 6669913 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
That SEC article was warning about people who promote investments as being a gauranteed high return and risk free. Well bitcoin bulls go even one step further than this, to tell you that holding cash itself is risky.
Cash is not risky. You are
guaranteed to lose, and the guarantee is backed by the full coercive force of the largest government the world has ever seen.
Not even gold is a guaranteed winner every year, because it is only backed by free market.
867.
Post 6670315 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Let me reprhrase this then... Bitcoin bulls go one step further to tell you not only is Bitcoin risk-free but that if you aren't holding bitcoins, you are taking a risk because holding fiat is risky and bitcoin is clearly the way out of that risk. So bitcoin is not only risk free, but acts as an inverse risk. It is the infallible investment made in heaven and you you need to buy buy buy or die. They are not only going to quell your fears about holding bitcoin but make you fear NOT holding bitcoin. Because bitcoin is the solution for the apocalypse and when the system fails, bitcoiners will become filthy rich. It is the DESTINY. Bitcoin is like a rapture and you need to be on board or be left to perish.
Pretty much correct. Unlike most religions, however, you can choose to invest whichever portion of your assets you like, and trade the position in an out as you wish. This flexibility makes it difficult for traditional religions to compete.
868.
Post 6685837 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
The rpietilia purchase didn't even create minor waves in the news. Last media waves were during the Chinese rally, and even then most of the general public remained very sceptical and and ridiculed bitcoin as an pyramid scheme.
Yes, if a full-page article in the country's leading newspaper counts as "minor" plus full page in the local paper. I would say a typical manor purchase gets less coverage (there are hundreds of manors in Estonia).
869.
Post 6686141 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
I wouldn't call it even a minor wave, when compared to the previous attempts to create waves here by delfi or other popular voices of the Ekspress Grupp. The article even messed up the county that the manor is situated in. The paper press is a dying breed in Estonia, and what you have to look at is digital publishing, especially when dealing with potential bitcoin customers. And the news about your purchase hardly collected any interest in the form of clicks or comments. And as little attention it got, most of it was also negative attention.
Estonians are skeptical and hard-working people by nature, and it's hard to sell them something with promising them shortcuts in becoming rich. The get-rich-quick schemes are publicly ridiculed here by a large majority.
What is the reason that you are belittling the publicity that the media voluntarily, without asking, decided to give? It is better than anything I have ever received in Finland. What in general is your problem?
ADD: The county was quickly changed due to the comments. Otoh, some said that who cares about the distinction since historically Virumaa is 1 county.
870.
Post 6686652 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
With your reputation, I'm not very surprised that this is the best attention that you have ever received.
Can you now understand why your reading yellow press hurts you, not me?
871.
Post 6687813 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
With your reputation, I'm not very surprised that this is the best attention that you have ever received.
Can you now understand why your reading yellow press hurts you, not me?
Heh, your reputation doesn't only include the yellow press, but also the educated people from Helsinki and Tallinn, who know about your little adventures.
Do you really want to bring up this subject again?
I bet you cannot name
even one person who can testify with his name that I have had any "little adventures". Of course, because such thing have not happened.
That's the difference between a truthful and false allegation, you know. Even you don't reveal your name, because if you did, you would have to suffer according to the law for all lies that you spread.
I have no problem to refute your lies.
Hear. I am calling you a liar, third time in this post. That is the difference between you and me.
872.
Post 6688773 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
The mansion is last year's model, see the new one:
873.
Post 6694648 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Exchanges are not needed for Bitcoin. Physical gold and silver don't have exchanges (yes they do, in theory, the COMEX and the like, but they are scammy places that do more harm than good to the ecosystem and no ordinary investor uses them).
PM 's have dealers. You want to buy/sell? Contact dealer. The dealers balance their positions between them, you only need one contact. Nobody gets scammed as you walk away with the product.
When the dealer network feels pressure that the price should be higher, make no mistake it will rise, as high as necessary.
Crying about Bitcoin's demise if the exchanges are choked is uninformed at best. I would rather do away with the exchanges in one fell swoop, if that would hasten the appearing of trustable dealers.
I used to be one. Don't have time currently but the matter may change.
874.
Post 6703844 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
I've never seen a man who try every possible way to try to escape his mistakes instead of admitting to them.
If you are so interested in discussing about it, how about you challenge me directly on the mistakes you claim that I have made! Then I can answer. Perhaps you find out that a) not many mistakes have been committed b) I am admitting some of them or c) you just don't understand what I'm doing and therefore think it's a mistake.
What you and some others are doing is so common brainwashing tactic that I just have to stop it every once in a while. Have mercy on that MervynPumpkinhead for example. Until yesterday he probably thought that the yellow press articles were
true! Shocking.
In general it would be good to refrain from negative speaking, and it that cannot be avoided, check the facts first.
As for the state of the castle, I just today approved a budget of € 561,855 that goes towards the repairs in 2014, and allows for the small scale hotel and bitcoin meeting point operation be started in September.
875.
Post 6706018 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
a $30mm investment round by the looks of it?
think it through, people. sheesh.
Nice, but I would just have bought 75k more btc at this point.. (Hopefully Bitpay do)
876.
Post 6710144 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Nice, but I would just have bought 75k more btc at this point.. (Hopefully Bitpay do)
I thought I read somewhere that Bitpay does not hold bitcoins, they sell them right awy. Am I wrong?
You are probably right, but after some time you will see why I suggested holding their company kitty in BTC
877.
Post 6711000 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
The other thing is while you are right that they had to get the coins sometime and somewhere, that demand theoretically drove the price up, if that demand is lost (by spending and not buying again) how can the net gain , without new investors, be positive?
Any BTC in the air in bitpay constitute a very long shallow slice of this rectangular space.
What is perhaps the more important effect, though: Having transactional uses for bitcoins make it a more interesting holding in general, adding incrementally to the height of many of the other rectangles.
878.
Post 6712192 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
If you truly are holding in the neighborhood of 10k coins, it seems prudent for you to utilize some of your stash towards the expansion of the BTC infrastructure.
Purchasing the castle and initial investments ate about
BTC3,000 of my stash so I am done for now. Next time I'll sell at $3k.
If you want to help me with ideas, how to integrate hotel and bitcoin as much as possible,
I have a thread for it.
879.
Post 6719248 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Also the ones that forgo investing because it is "difficult" are the same group that tends to sell a majority of their collective coins anyway after the next major move (towards either direction
)
If you buy into Bitcoin
despite the difficulties, you are much more probably still holding it 2 years from now, and a rich guy/gal.
The impact to USD/BTC (quoting Aminorex) is in
BTC*d.
880.
Post 6719598 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
rpietila,
What percent of your net worth is in Crypto, PM, Real Estate, etc?
What percent do you recommend the average person to put into Crypto and PM?
Thanks for time and opinion.
More than half is in crypto. Otherwise it's quite balanced (I view all other investments as a hedge against
BTC's failure - they are not expected to generate returns).
The percent depends so much on your individual way of viewing things. For the poker players, going all-in or even leveraged all-in has generated good results with acceptable risk (losing all and then some, but hey - you are young!). I prefer to play all scenarios, so that I never lose. (Of course some pay out better than the others). Many people cannot sleep if they have even 10% of their worth in
BTC, so that must also be taken into account.
**
A practical way to see how much crypto you can bear, and organize it, is to buy 5% (or really - whatever %) of your net worth this week. After 1 week if it feels good, buy another 5%. If it does not feel good, don't buy more. The system has a 3-month rule, as follows:
-
After 3 months has passed from your latest purchase, you may
never ever in your life anymore,
buy bitcoins.
-
Until 3 months has passed from you latest purchase, you may
never ever in your life, no matter what,
sell bitcoins.
This way you have a clear high point in your bitcoin holdings, the 3-month period, because before that you can only buy and after that you can only sell. Try to buy as many coins that they are enough for you for the rest of your life. Then when you sell, you cannot replace the coins - when you sell, they are gone permanently and irreversibly.
One way to sell the coins without emotion is the SSS plan.
I am sure the readers see the various psychological levers the plan outlined here pulls, to give the best results.
881.
Post 6721461 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Of course we need new investors and their money. That's pretty obvious. But to me it is also obvious that we will get it, since Bitcoin is logically by far the best EV investment right now. This already implies best returns, but the fact that you are one of the few that knows it, implies pretty much lowest risk as well. The knowledge about Bitcoin can only increase, never decrease. Just wait until someone starts to vote with his wallet.
No-one has promised uptrend until July. That's about the time it takes.
882.
Post 6721828 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Of course we need new investors and their money. That's pretty obvious. But to me it is also obvious that we will get it, since Bitcoin is logically by far the best EV investment right now. This already implies best returns, but the fact that you are one of the few that knows it, implies pretty much lowest risk as well. The knowledge about Bitcoin can only increase, never decrease. Just wait until someone starts to vote with his wallet.
No-one has promised uptrend until July. That's about the time it takes.
For the long run, I have no doubts about what you are saying. I concur wholeheartedly with the statistics!
But it is the limbo currently being set up by the Chinese government that has me worried. Can you or anyone point to an analagous situation for another type of stock, asset, commodity, etc. (some say we should not compare these things with Bitcoin but we have to start somewhere) ?
I have never taken the whole China debacle seriously, so I am unable to comment. Imo the bust follows a boom, and the seeds of a new boom are thus sown, and news don't matter.
If the price was trending upwards in 4 figures now, which one of you cared a shit about China? The fact that you are anxious about the price is the reason you are anxious about China, not the other way round.
Patience.
883.
Post 6722335 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Just interested whether anyone can point me to a remotely similar situation - perhaps a commodity that is heavily controlled in some countries but traded freely in others - so that some understanding of the implications for the global market may be understood.
Gold was forbidden to own in the United States between 1933 and 1974, punishable by $10,000 fine and/or 10 years imprisonment.
Meanwhile in the free world, the price went up from $20 to $195 during that period.
Background.
884.
Post 6722892 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Are we in the midst of a pump and dump? Considering the lack of volume one wouldn't think so but with the price having been slightly increasing since about 20:00 EST last night until now I'm wondering if a dump is in our near future?
Stop seeing pump and dumps with every 10$ price move
.
10 dollars is like 2%, right.
Was analyzing Mt.Gox price data from 2010. There were some mighty pumps and dumps. 20-30k
BTC volume in 5 minutes. Price swinging by 5-20%. Then when you look more carefully, the USD volume is <10k$. It was nothing more than somebody's fiat just cleared.
Buying and selling
BTC1k now is very probably just normal balancing of portfolio for a merchant or exchanger, or investor.
885.
Post 6728681 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.
Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:
Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:
2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
-
another flashcrash to $2.2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
-
?(to be found out in 7 days....
)
886.
Post 6729416 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.
Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:
Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:
2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
-
another flashcrash to $2.2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
-
?(to be found out in 7 days....
)
I'd like to bet against your call, interested?
He doesn't bet anything straight forward. You would have to give him odds, and even then good luck with clarifying whatever it is that the bet is supposed to be. Also, he will NOT bet for any less than 50BTC to make it worth his time.
The probability that the price would go that low inside 7 days has historically (2013-) been 7.2%. If I make such a call, I naturally have to give you better odds. How about double (14% == 7:1)?
Never mind. I don't have time for this.
Also this is getting stupid. I expected a little bit interest at least.
This chart shows that the double bottom turns to an uptrend that will take us to the price level prevalent before the first flashcrash (in 2014's case 650, prior to dipping to 400 in 2014-2-25). This will happen slowly but steadily during 7 weeks.
TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.
887.
Post 6729774 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
fuck hodling
BUY!
Yes. But only next week.
Remember the charts.
888.
Post 6730074 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
What about the "fall out" that is supposed to happen May 15 once the banks stop bitcoin transactions? Technically it is already May 15 in China.
That would coincide with the final bottom that I just predicted from the charts. (Did not know about china,cause I don't want news to affect my judgement)
Time to open Bitfinex then.. <puts on the battle-worn armor>
889.
Post 6738312 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
So are we going to final bottom around $370 next week or not?
Hmm, 300-350 rpietila says, in 7 days he says. Lets see.
he says a 7% chance.
you feeling lucky?
I said that historically, the clause "we will go down at least 21.3% in the next 7 days, compared to today" has been true about 7% of times.
Because I had a hunch that it would have an increased probability of being true next week, I offered double the odds. In other words, even if you think the P is = historical average, you would have had +100% EV.
890.
Post 6745691 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
I'm only perceived as a bear due to the contrast that appears between me and uberturbobulls like rpetelia.
I only switched to bull in 2014-2-25 when btc hit $400 and bought back all my shorts from $675-$1000+ at an average price of $448.
Last time I checked, we are not any lower now so I have lost nothing.Before that I was a bear for 3 months. So now I have been a bull for
almost as long.
Perhaps I am just perceived as uberturboanything because I am passionate about what I am doing, either a bull or a bear.
That's fine.
891.
Post 6757433 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
at current prices risk/reward ratio for bit coin is not that great, market is practically frozen so trading is almost impossible, so they are gradually moving out to other investments.
I don't see how someone rational can come to that conclusion.
Risk/reward ratio not that great ?
People who evaluate the risk/reward ratio of bitcoin as poor really deserve to sell now, more or less at the bottom.
I don't think there is any investment that has a better risk/reward ratio - unless you are extremely risk averse.
It is funny how blind people are. What exactly has better risk/reward? There is none.
Bitcoin has a small risk of going to zero, perhaps 3% annualized. That is about the same as fiat cash, or stocks, so we are talking about a net zero
risk.
Bitcoin's volatility is high, but the historical return is still so good that 60% of every 30-day periods are positive and in Bitcoin's history there has not been a negative year, for example. No matter which investment length period you take, and compare bitcoin with anything else, they come out a winner. So the
volatility is not a problem - bitcoins have been the least risk investment on the planet for the last 5 years, because they have never returned a loss after 2 years which all the others have.
The
return is very good, about 1000% per year, which is higher than the returns of competing investments in the expected range of -5%...10% of returns.
Currently there are about a million Bitcoin holders, which is so small that even after 10x growth from here, we are still in "innovators" and not even "early adopters" category. Furthermore, less than 100,000 people actually use Bitcoin. The potential for
growth is staggering.
The
timing for investment, as measured by any growth trendline, is excellent right now, as the overshoot of the previous bubble has been purged, yet the infrastructure is growing, and the new wave of investors (in 10s of millions) is just waiting for the signal to enter.
892.
Post 6757484 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
No. I think that these "betting proposals" are used against me when I present an inconvenient truth, in an attempt to derail. Chew that first
893.
Post 6792841 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
So I am puzzled by this calm, I can't understand what those Chinese sellers are waiting for.
The nature of Bitcoin - once you sell it, you can't sell it again.
After 6 months of selling, no more coins in the sellers' hands.
Volume down.
Next: UP. No other way is even possible.
When: Don't know exactly, but 650 by the end of June is a possibility. Top could be in August-September.
894.
Post 6829506 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
Based on my anectodical experience, people who mislike usage of "Facts U Dislike" are prone to mislabeling facts they don't like as FUD, as in "Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt". It's a kneejerk reaction to anything that might not be good, and questions its authenticity and nature.
Based on my psychological skill, the people who keep FUD's original meaning will on average have 10 times better ROI in the next 3 years, compared to the people who troll with "facts you dislike".
895.
Post 6847561 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
this time, it's launching from 450
my question to you is, when are you selling?
I have a resolution of not selling any below 2000.
I think that's an easy one to keep because the sell zone in the exponential trendline starts at earliest +0.4 points and we are there earliest mid-July at 4700. If it postpones till August or longer, it also goes higher.
I aim to sell at the top only, probably starting at 3000 and when it feels toppy. Apr-2013 my selling plan had just started the day before collapse. Nov-2013 I was too early (675) but managed to sell in bulk. It is hard to know the shape of the bubble top.
The ambitious plan is to buy back the same number of coins in the following crash, and use the proceeds to finish the castle repairs and miscellaneous expenses.
896.
Post 6861992 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
Any bets on the bottom for the weekend? I am hoping for 400 at least.
The dearth of sellers is palpable.
Same goes for volume. Does not mean much.
The downtrend has been in force due to sellers overriding buyers. If the volume dries up, it is because the sellers are exhausted. The price is nascent despite the low volume. I would abstain from shorting here.
The trailing 4-week change is positive first time since February. My last call of 435 bottom was off by $14.87 so let's try to call another one here.
So far, so good.
897.
Post 6881964 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
Occasionally I also ask if any altcoins have compelling value. Now at least there are the 2.0 coins and the anonycoins. Just having scrypt is not interesting enough.
898.
Post 6895853 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
I dont see why you just ignore the people who know this market infinately better than you.
Infinaty times zero is still zero.
what did i say? oh yeah: "cognitive nihilist"
Good morning!
Actually infinity times zero is undefined.
899.
Post 6897728 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
Fibonacci say..
Don't panic.
507 1st retracement
494 50% retracement
481 2nd retracement.
I would be inclined to buy back at 1st retracement this time (if I was selling which I wasn't).
If 481 is breached, then the breakout is questionable.
900.
Post 6897854 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
Breakout needs volume, or its not a breakout.
Because the exchange situation is particularly precarious, perhaps the volume is not in the exchanges.
Also, the downtrend was unusually long, so the sellers were thoroughly exhausted as a result. In the beginning of the breakout, the advancing armies of the buyers meet no resistance, but the breakout is nevertheless real for the reason that ground is taken (although no hostages).
901.
Post 6901317 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
Are stamp problems are related only to $ withdrawal requests?
It seems so. I haven't heard of anyone being asked ridiculous stuff like this withdrawing
BTC but Stamp was my reliable exchange that even if I did some trades elsewhere Stamp was the fiat gateway.
Can anyone confirm? And how much money must it be for these kind of problems to show up?
Read around there has been a few stories of these new requirements going around. Thats the main issue, there is no advertised threshold that you bump up against these problems. The guy was trying to draw max $4000, thats pocket change! The other explanation is its worked out on trade volume but how fucking retarded. I could trade the same 10 coins 1000 times or do one 10k trade, which one should raise the most flags?
He said it was nearly 500 coins. That makes it nearly a quarter million dollars. I can see why they want docs for that.
I withdrew a couple millions and did not need to prove anything, just answer their questions. Unless they recently changed rules, it is likely that the guy's activity had some reason for suspicion and therefore he got special treatment. (The checks are usually automatic, and give many false positives, which cause annoyance for people, of course.)
902.
Post 6902230 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
even if you are a large, old and successful business, you don't mess with the US government. Pokerstars is a billion dollar business but still not legit in USA, and Bitstamp could totally have its Black Friday considering that legit US exchanges are about to open and they are an "unfair" competitor.
Yes, why would anybody mess up with the entity that has more firepower than the rest of the world combined..
But wait a minute, they must be
very unbelievably scared of us. How else would they need so many weapons. I don't have any, because I am right.
903.
Post 6911025 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
I would buy back at 510 and consider selling at 480 if breached.
(In reality I have bought back in February at 448 and am solidly in the black and no need to speculate until 3000)
904.
Post 6924940 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
On the bright side, ripple labs has not yet been accused of transporting minor boys across state lines for the purpose of sex.
Everybody should know that terrorism, pedophilia, drugs and money laundering are the crimes that only wrongthinkers are accused of doing. Since Ripple Labs sides with TPTB, they can continue their activities without interruption.
905.
Post 6925381 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
I don't get all the excitement about such a small price rise. This valuation is still only 1% of what it needs to be...
We are at -0.35 in the exponential trendline model. If $5,200 is reached in 2014-7-31, it will trigger a sell zone at +0.4, based on the 2 previous bubbles.
906.
Post 6925529 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
based on the 2 previous bubbles.
Only the last 2?
If we are talking about the exact optimal sell point being when the exchange rate is +0.4...+0.45 log points above the exponential trendprice of the date, yes.
(The previous great bubble of 6/2011 became so quickly after the listing of Bitcoin that the exponential trendlines did not yet give reliable signals.)
907.
Post 6943418 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
7k coins to 640. This is not gonna be easy from here on.
Buyers want quantity. Maybe it's the lack of asks that has made it take so long for the buyers to start. Now there is some serious volume available
908.
Post 6943978 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
$5 to $260 was actually more fun, in that it took longer but was more methodical with a five or ten dollar rise everyday and was much more unexpected. The problem now is everyone expects fireworks, all the time and for history to repeat itself, only bigger.
Its rather like a good Hollywood movie that embarks upon a run of sequels, each one is bigger and louder yet somehow leaves everyone unsatisfied.
The road from $0.001 to $1,000,000 has to pass through all the points in between. Just try to suffer the this year's rise without getting too bored.
909.
Post 6944331 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
The more you gee people up that they'll be overnight millionaires, the more distressed they are going to be when it either takes longer or doesn't happen at all.
And when it does happen, that is a real distress that must not be overlooked.
910.
Post 6947673 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
You only need an extremely rough estimate of future value to make this a good investment as long as the estimate is several orders of magnitude above the current price.
The collective mind of the market obviously does not believe in that...
lol @ perfect market theory. There are endless examples of why that theory is as flawed as can be. The market is retarded (every market is, shallow markets more than others) and there lies the opportunity to buy assets for less than they're worth.
The reason that BTC is so cheap and progresses so slowly is that people are only exponentially "getting it". As long as this persists, however, it will grow exponentially, and unless you can't wait for 2 years to see the results, then ....
...you should ANYWAY buy all the bitcoins you can, because historically it has been the best investment in all timescales.
911.
Post 6947769 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
The reason that BTC is so cheap and progresses so slowly is that people are only exponentially "getting it". As long as this persists, however, it will grow exponentially, and unless you can't wait for 2 years to see the results, then ....
...you should ANYWAY buy all the bitcoins you can, because historically it has been the best investment in all timescales.
But short term there are timescales in which you'll lose money. This is where patience comes in. If you don't have patience for Bitcoin, good luck with any other investment ever.
That's what I mean. Every holding is an investment. If you have any fiat in any bank, its value may also fluctuate. Only if you don't own absolutely anything, are you free of this. Holding cash for 2 years is impossible for 40% of people, there is a total loss no matter what
I renounced silver (which I did for profession) in 2013-2-6 and urged all my readers, customers and investors to buy BTC. They are now sitting on about 4000% gains. And that is not even 2 years..
912.
Post 6964281 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
Here's a tip for those people who keep dumping around 600. If you don't dump the price will go up and your coins will be worth more. Crazy rocket science, i know.
That's a prisoner's dilemma type situation though that could never happen in practice, because one bad actor dumps and takes advantage of the other people holding.
Anyone who dumps here without buying back in short order is as stupid as I was in 9/2013 selling 2,000+ btc, my biggest (and by and large the only) really stupid trade.
913.
Post 6964839 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
Here's a tip for those people who keep dumping around 600. If you don't dump the price will go up and your coins will be worth more. Crazy rocket science, i know.
That's a prisoner's dilemma type situation though that could never happen in practice, because one bad actor dumps and takes advantage of the other people holding.
Anyone who dumps here without buying back in short order is as stupid as I was in 9/2013 selling 2,000+ btc, my biggest (and by and large the only) really stupid trade.
That's not bad if you could learn from your mistake and 2000BTC was only a small portion of your profile.
Yes, both.
But at this point anyone should just hold on to their coins, since the risk/reward going forward 3 months is just so unbelievably good. I can't think of any reason to reduce the exposure right now. Even selling at 400 had some merit for some, but selling now does not.
(Trading aside - you can try trading an uptrend, I don't, but if you are good go for it. Ask the ones who sold at 547 a few days ago what was their buyback
)
914.
Post 6965959 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
I don't think we're going lower then this tbh
headed to 630 in a couple days
540 retest was question for discussion. Thoughts for/against?
We have not yet seen any Fibonacci retracements during the breakout. If there is one in the cards now, it would be about 538. So yes, I support this one. 500 should hold because that's the 2nd retracement level.
915.
Post 6976149 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
Quickcoin is the coolest thing that happened to Bitcoin since whitepaper.
916.
Post 6978454 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
Jorge,
How many students do you have? Are you willing to facilitate giving each of your students some bitcoin? I'm willing to fund a project like this.
Oooooh, great idea! I pledge to give 23 of his students (if there are any) 5mBTC each.
you can quote me on this.
Thanks for quoting me as i'm sure he has me on ignore. I'll pledge $2000
QuickCoin is a great way of doing this. You can send 3 times per minute to people who have a FB account but have not even heard of Bitcoin. I will send to all my FB friends..
917.
Post 7065403 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.49h):
I remember the thread "is it me or bitcoin tends to gravitate towards 666?"
Bitcoin is always ==
BTC1.
It's the dollar that takes pleasure in staying near 1/666 of
BTC. But those days may soon be numbered.
918.
Post 7087102 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.49h):
Nice piece of unbiased journalism. Oh wait, no ....
Journalism wasn't too bad but "funny" that they choose to use the most ugly-looking pictures..
919.
Post 7105607 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.50h):
Another quick poll: is there anyone here at all who does not believe that, by 2027, 1 BTC will buy all the wealth in the world?
We always have you.
If everybody else believe that, they are obviously wrong.
The best outcome (for bitcoin) will be that all bitcoins, not one, will have all the savings value in the world, all the value that people will have in reserve for a shorter or longer time. This is not related at all to all the real value that exists. What people want to have in reserve in money, compared to what value they will have in houses, cars, excavators, factories, toothbrushes and son on, is a personal choice for each individual. It can be less than they have in real value, or more.
The fact that better money will be available, may change the preferences.
Nobody knows. Wait and see.
I believe that in the nomadic times (such as some part of the Old Testament), the liquid wealth (money) of the world was far in excess to the physical wealth. Land did not have much value then, and people could not have much stuff b/c they carried them all with them. So in that kind of society the value of all money >> the value of "real wealth".
Some have argued that in the heyday of industrialism, both the factories and land had much value, so the money ~== real wealth (or even real wealth > money).
Now I would say that real estate is quite expensive, possibly overvalued. Corporations perhaps more so. We may be entering new "nomadic era" as evidenced by the minimalist tendencies of many people who are rich in liquid assets. Even I personally own much more liquid assets (mainly BTC) than the value of my physical assets (mainly castle). It is not inconceivable that the value of all bitcoins goes north of the value of everything else. I am looking at a conservative 25-50% myself but Stephen Reed has argued that bitcoin's holding is so easy that they might be just held and everything else goes into permanent price deflation.
If the price goes up really fast, the big holders are not able to utilize the alternative opportunities and will have to just hold the majority of their stash, creating the very cycle described by Stephen.
My own experience from buying the castle is that it has made me really busy (and will in the coming years), and curtail my interest in any further bitcoin sales, since I can only handle so much real wealth, but hold any number of bitcoins.
This is barring any coercive intervention of course.
920.
Post 7167392 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
I used to compute the "impulse" that brought us to 1163 by the mean of (1163,382) , but bitcoin works better with a log scale, thus the use of the geometric mean that magically leads to 666.
It just means to me that we are still under the influence of that pulse, and nothing really new happend in between.
It's a logarithmic 50% retracement.
And 680 is the standard 61.8% retracement. No wonder we are gathering steam 'round here.
921.
Post 7167602 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
Despite lulz, that was a swift ignore.
922.
Post 7454210 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
You are right.
923.
Post 7637080 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
People are looking for a reason to sell. Not to buy.
The people are of 2 kinds. Every sane bitcoiner is near all-in now, because of where we are in the cycle. Being all-in means all you can do is hold or sell. Buying button is greyed out.
The ones with no bitcoins cannot sell, only buy (or hold their dollars). To get the price to 10 times the current level, a lot of dollars need to be invested into bitcoin, and that is
not coming from the current, maxxed-out people who hang around in this thread. Almost none of it. On the contrary: the people here will be the ones in the position to stop the rally when we finally decide to collectively sell so much that the buying pressure is absorbed and price plummets from the highs.
Whatever happens before that new money gets interested is of little significance. Except to those idiots that just cannot wait a few months (like me selling
BTC2k last september...)
924.
Post 7646528 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
@potential buyers, If you are interested to wait until it hits $5000, I have a few thousand BTC for sale. Contact me.
925.
Post 7670093 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Nice double top forming.
Be ready for a correction to 500$.
Increase your BTC holdings by 20% without doing much (just selling).
Sir,
Selling is the easy part. Buying back in quantity is the difficult one.
926.
Post 7671544 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
500 should hold for the uptrend to remain in force.
927.
Post 7671665 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
500 should hold for the uptrend to remain in force.
That's quite optimistic. If it goes that low (I doubt it) there is a huge risk, turning the whole market bearish...
Wasn't that what I just said
928.
Post 7671763 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Can you imagine in 1994?
EUROPEAN MAILING AUTHORITY ADVISES POSTAL SERVICES IN EU NOT TO RECEIVE, WRITE OR SEND EMAILS.
Who made them think they have something to say on the matter?
+1 (as usual
)
929.
Post 7671822 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
If I was buying, I'd wait until 580-600 is crossed first. (or 660 which would be the panic buyback zone).
930.
Post 7684953 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
700 is no different than 600. It's going to be the same uphill battle.
It will last the time it lasts. When it is over, it is over. And then the fun begins.
Don't sell now. But
especially don't sell between 800->3000: that is a complete waste of money in a situation where there is no way except going up several times in a matter of weeks.
931.
Post 7700230 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Indeed. I'm giving the first real mid-term bear market a good chance.
The chance is about as high as the possibility for the Bitcoin adoption to start going in reverse.
Well, it has never happened before with any winning technology but yeah, not an impossibility. You never know
932.
Post 7834833 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.58h):
But I still advice ppl to use buy and cut because you never know if we end up heading down to 0 for some reason.
Bitcoin is special, because every day that it is
not immediately and permanently reset to 0, has historically meant a 0.7% price appreciation trend (resulting from increase in adoption).
So you are essentially betting that the probability that Bitcoin fails
today is less than 0.7%, and you are able to withstand some volatility.
933.
Post 7835322 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.58h):
"show"ing that guys message quickly reminded me why it needed to be "shown" before it's visible.
Get a life.
My comments are inspirational, meant to penetrate your fixated thinking to be able to use your mind in actually understanding matters, old and new. Reacting to them in such a low level manner leads me to think whether you'd be better off investing in bonds. At least you know what you get.
934.
Post 7835661 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.58h):
Obviously my attempt to adopt the general discussion level in the thread failed miserably.
I'll try again:
"Price is shaky. Once a 10 btc wall was eaten from 632 and now someone is dumping 3.2 btc in the middle of the day!!?! Who needs to sell btc in the middle of the day? must be some stupid rich kid. Hoep he gets burned when price rises back..."
935.
Post 8136680 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
A real capitulation with a large volume in the 500-530 range would be most welcome.
It's been so long time since the last capitulation that a new one is needed.
936.
Post 8141074 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
If BTC price heads south from 500, it means that the adoption has turned negative.
So not only all the initiatives that have been built this year with the funds generated by 2013 rallies, and the VC money, and the Wall Street initiatives, will turn out to be worth nothing, but also the internal growth in userbase that has averaged 0.6% per day since the start of 2010, will not only revert to zero, but also turn negative, with people who have used Bitcoin, ceasing the use and turning back to PayPal, en masse.
Sure. Believing in unicorns never made me rich in the first place.
937.
Post 8176259 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.02h):
Some selling into that huge bid wall on Huobi, but it just keeps on absorbing. Went from 2000 to 15xx, was sitting around 1600 for a while just now, and a few hundred were just added so it's now 1950. Wall man wants us to go up?
From your description of the events, I would say that wall man wants to buy.
938.
Post 8212862 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
I agree fully with you, volume also decreasing regularly just 1 or 2 day big volume and then no volume at all.
This is the main problem we are facing in Bitcoin trading, without volume we can't expect much price movement.
Not many bitcoins are in weak hands anymore. Therefore the low volume. If someone sells to manipulate it lower, he cannot buy back at a profit. As a result, that is not happening. Even a trickle of new money would catapult it way past the ATH. That has not happened for months though. So we wait.
939.
Post 8261505 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
I hope it goes to 470 to give a gleaning point.
940.
Post 8338823 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
(3) They are purposefully trying to destroy the price so that people panic and sell their BTCs into Ethereum given the ratio is relatively fixed (although dropping each day per the terms of the roll-out).
Yes definitely, people see BTC dropping and buy vaporware to secure the gains. /sarcasm
Well I have bought more Monero as diversification, but Ethereum is not in my "qualified btc hedges list".
941.
Post 8345983 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Still expecting 440. I needed to buy in to buy stuff but with this going on I'm waiting.
Anyone have any solid news on why? Is it just day traders leaving because no money to make here?
Draw a few trend lines on bitcoinwisdom and you'll see the big dumps are aimed at breaking through them so its fairly obvious where they're coming from. Its been going on for some time, the days destroyed movements suggest they where either involved from 2009 or bough large amounts of coins from people who where. The intent is to either crush bitcoin or take it over and the coin movements suggest the latter, that they're trying to take over mining by forcing competing miners out (new hashing algorithm anyone
). The dumps coming now as well as trading on other markets (forex + others) suggests funds are being pulled in to prop up US markets as they're close to the edge and Argentina's default could push them over, good for us as it leaves them in a weak position.
You can so easily hedge against that outcome. Just buy same amount of Monero as you have Bitcoin (same number fo coins). No matter which one survives, you have retained your wealth as percentage of the total.
Btw. 471 is one strong fibo line so it might not make sense to sell around that price where you should be buying.
942.
Post 8346147 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
how many excuses do you need to make up for the simple fact that bitcoin is going to nowhere but down?
game over guys, bitcoin is going to the final capitulation, sell now to cut loose or lose everything
Final capitulations are the sweetest buying opportunities. You would probably never have heard of me, unless I happened to analyze the fundamentals and charts for month, before buying in at the final capitulation of 2011.
The more ppl speak like you (and the less they speak like me
) the better, because that much closer to the bottom we are.
But real tough guys can make the decision without sentiment analysis as well as with it. I hardly knew about the forums back then, even my account is from 2012.
It is the new money that will raise the price to new levels. They are still waiting. What can you do but wait? Next room to me now, there is a guy who takes jacuzzi every day and smokes cigars. He held through the bubble, and the fall, and the capitulation (of 2011) and ever since. His friends sold out in the downtrend and said they will come back if/when the tide turns. They never did. They are probably working now.
Bitcoin does not care if you make money or not. Also I don't care. I know there are enough people in the world who understand reasonable speech, and gravitate into Bitcoin in waves. And if bitcoin is foiled, now we have Monero, so there is a
real backup, vainly sought after for 2-3 years.
The waiters came to ask what I want for breakfast, and roasted liver with red wine sounded like nice. Thank you for listening.
943.
Post 8347863 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
It's amazing how delusional they are. They talk about the next bubble as if it's guaranteed to come. It simply isn't. We've been going down for 9 months. Now we're simply at the point the smart people understand there simplu won't be another bubble anymore. They're pulling out. We will go down very fast coming few weeks.
Sometimes you feel good, sometimes you feel bad. But your sentiment does not change the revolution in technology. It is steaming on relentlessly regardless of your feeling.
Let's say that flying has just been invented. The first aeroplanes are taking passengers. Then routes are established. 1920s, 1930s see a great growth. Would you say after a regulatory setback or something that, "this flying is overrated and will become a dwindling niche". Then - I know this is not the case with flight, but it is with Bitcoin - you would decide to sell your 1/21,000,000 share(s) of everything related to aviation at a pittance. If only 100 planes existed in the world, and they are small, 210k bitcoins would buy you one plane. Sell and be happy.
Meanwhile the ones who realize what is at stake, a revolution in tech, either happening or not, would buy your shares, and wait until the real value of one share is much higher. Because you cannot uninvent it, it is actually an easy bet for a patient and shrewd investor.
944.
Post 8355586 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Why is he posing with that car that belongs to that hotel ? does he live in /own the hotel ?
That's last year, (and somebody nicely photoshopped it). I was manifesting that when Bitcoin rises to $300k, I will have a hotel (and a car) myself.
So now I have it.More pics.
945.
Post 8355663 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Where is my dinner invite then?
In my sig, check the public events. Dinner is €30 + wines (4 courses), but I will definitely not even mention a word what we eat and drink here, since I heard that the breakfast already directed your discussion away from the walls.
946.
Post 8399708 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
Bubble's flight has been delayed. Scheduled arrival: November
These are my thoughts exactly. If a new bubble/rally ever comes that is.
Yes if. I wonder the same. Because if everyone is expecting another bubble, can one happen, at least so soon?
Yes, it can. But the prediction has to be based on valid logic, applied to factual observations:
the rise does not happen because of the actions of the current owners (1-2 million) but is an inevitable consequence of the next generation (5-20 million) buying in.Oh you who have so little faith (and logic )
947.
Post 8400001 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
How do we know the consequence is inevitable that the next generation is 5-200million buying in?
If Bitcoin remains a niche, it has failed. It has not replaced the current monetary system. Then new people don't come, and the price also does not rise.
Our decision is to analyze, what is the probability for world domination. If it is anything more than 1%, it makes sense to invest quite a significant percentage.
The link in my original post shows the blatant absurdity in claiming that the new generation would never arrive, because they are already in the pipeline.
Still, even 1% suffices.
948.
Post 8411765 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
We are probably a few hours from either impending doom or staring at a lack of volatility while we fearfully anticipate impending doom. So, on that note. How is insomnia treating everybody this week. This has been the worst week for me ever in terms of eating, exercise, sleeping, and general bathing. How about the rest of the team?
I have eaten rather well, thank you for asking. Slept - not so much. But the said dinner lasted 8 hours from the appointed time, what can I do?
949.
Post 8412859 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
If Bitcoin will continue to fall for a few more weeks/months the ALT-scene will get nearly wiped out. I will shed no tears
Yes, it is such a feast now for the ones buying alts that are independent of BTC, yet get double hammering due to BTC. Monero comes to mind
950.
Post 8416782 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
Ah the day (
2013-4-10) when BTC crashed from $266 to $105 (-60%) in
7 hours.
Then snapped back to $203 (+95%) in
2 hours.
Then took a slide back to $120 (-40%) in
17 hours, after which the trading in Mt.Gox was halted for
10 hours.
When the exchange opened at $130, it soon crashed to $65 (-50%) in
1 hour, after which it recovered to $130 (+100%) in
1 hour.
9 hours later we saw $54 (-60%). In
12 more hours it was already $130 (+150%) yet again.
**
What am I teaching? That price does not matter. Number of bitcoins matters, and low prices are to be used for buying them, not selling.
Thank you
951.
Post 8451140 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
If you're going to accurately compare Bitcoin and Litecoin, then look at the LTC/BTC exchange rate instead of comparing them both to USD, which is irrelevant to the comparison.
How is this so?
952.
Post 8456776 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
Next monday (25th) all alt die and bitcoin will moon.
Monero took a head start +20% today... after not even decreasing too much during the whole ordeal
953.
Post 8456784 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
It´s a real bounce or a trap?
Depends whether you are trading with 20:1 leverage or not. If not, it is a real bounce.
954.
Post 8509009 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
Over time, the coins do get concentrated in the hands of a few smart people.
It has to be noted that persistent hoarding by these smart people greatly increases the value of everybody else's coins. The market cap of the unhoarded stock grows larger when the hoarded stock grows larger.
955.
Post 8521824 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
How low do you think it will go, and why is it "worse"? Do you believe that BTC economy can be quenched merely by taking price lower? There was a growing BTC economy in 2012 at the average price of $10 if you don't remember... Now instead of 10000s, we have about 1 million owners of BTC and everything is much more solid.
956.
Post 8522016 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
If you don't think that
6 consecutive weeks down, followed by a high-volume capitulation, means that we are oversold, you deserve to sell all your bitcoins NOW.
957.
Post 8522177 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
I don't think we'll go lower than $450 again, but I definitely don't think we will be at a much higher price in a few week/months either.
The Bitlicense is a very problematic business, until that is not resolved we can't go anywhere (as somebody said, "it could crush the business"). Also, the Winklevoss ETF must be approved first too I'm afraid.
Oh please - the Winklevoss etf is 18 months old news, and during this time BTC is up an order of magnitude.
Bitlicence tells that regulators' pants are wet when facing an innovation that could put them out of business. If you care, set your business up somewhere else except NY (the place has 0.3% of world population after all). If you don't care, switch to Monero.
958.
Post 8522674 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
If volume is lower and lower in a capitulation, it is a sign of a lack of sellers.
(Buyers are patently lacking, otherwise we were not in a downtrend at all..)
959.
Post 8522959 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
Very little point in arguing with a person who overrides my facts with his own, and when I make them a basis of my further argument, he accuses
me of being wrong based on that his own "facts" were wrong. LOL
I hope such people do not buy Monero. At least not for cheap.
960.
Post 8536657 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
I hope it is truly not the dirty fiat dollars that lead him to share his opinion in the way that he does.
I have been thinking that it has to be the clean, freshly made fiat dollars, but then again I don't know... In my country, professors are paid by the government and that's pretty much all you need to know.
961.
Post 8567900 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
Whats the point of these fukkin walls? Like ok bitcoin you can't go over 515 it's forbidden or it's just building pressure for the rocket?
I think the whale is trying to create some momentum, take the price down as people panic sell thinking we're resuming the bear trend, and then pump back up and get cheap coins.
If someone did not trust bitcoin, he would have sold loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo-oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo-oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong time ago at a higher price.
Be
certain that
everyone in the market now is in the business of buying, in a way or another.
962.
Post 8781409 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.12h):
They're going to steal my coins that are on a machine running an open source OS, open source wallet, that doesn't have wifi?
OK, how... and then... why?
And even if they did. Cryptocurrency is just information. We are building a network here that makes this information available without even having money. Even though I often don't see it, now I see a glimpse of the future, without money. Oh - better spend less time with people who introduced Bitcoin to me, but themselves have been on the next level for long already...
963.
Post 9093081 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
I think the fear has reached an extreme far higher than anything in 2014 yet. People (including me) are talking about getting back to work, putting castles for sale, and the price reaching $100-$200 in a matter of weeks.
Typically, extreme fear is associated with prices that in nearly all timeframes provide far above-average returns. Unlike most extreme fear situations, the one in Bitcoin now is very easy to capitalize on, because bitcoins can easily be bought 24/7.
Even if buying more is not a realistic option due to the portfolio already being heavy in BTC, selling is generally not warranted unless you want to be one of those taken advantage of.
964.
Post 9093461 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
I think the fear has reached an extreme far higher than anything in 2014 yet. People (including me) are talking about getting back to work, putting castles for sale, and the price reaching $100-$200 in a matter of weeks.
Typically, extreme fear is associated with prices that in nearly all timeframes provide far above-average returns. Unlike most extreme fear situations, the one in Bitcoin now is very easy to capitalize on, because bitcoins can easily be bought 24/7.
Even if buying more is not a realistic option due to the portfolio already being heavy in BTC, selling is generally not warranted unless you want to be one of those taken advantage of.
Risto I'm curious, I assume your opinion is that this is just temporary noise but if bitcoin were to EVER die out, how would you expect it to unfold and at what time?
WAYYYY too much new adoption, and, importantly, WAYYY too much new infrastructure and VC participation for this to be any kind of swan song. We're still REALLY early in this story, not really late.
Right but how can you be so sure??
I mean, even though with all these good news and hype, there just seems to be no buying pressure and we barely had any bulltrap at all.
It doesn't make sense to me
The daily cash flow diagram of BTC economy is as follows (always totalling zero):
+ the purchases of existing holders
+ the purchases of new holders
- the sales of existing holders
- the value of new mining
-----------------------------------------
0.
When the price rises, the value of new mining goes up, giving possibility for more new money to come in. When it rises really high, also the existing holders sell in increasing quantities, absorbing all the new money and eventually forcing the price down. (BUBBLE PHASE).
When the price falls, the value of new mining goes down, but is still there. New money is sluggish to enter because price is in a downtrend. The existing holders largely need to absorb the mining, leading to further decline. (DOWNTREND).
When even the existing holders in large quantities throw in the towel and want to cash out, the price quickly falls until it meets a floor due to rising interest from new holders (and their fiat also buys much more coins, also mining value is very low). (CAPITULATION, SEEDS OF A NEW RISE)
Now, if the ecosystem would eventually die, we assume that new holders would not ever be coming and the existing holders would one at a time throw in the towel. Then the only ones to buy both the coins from the defectors + the newly mined coins, would be the other existing holders. In this case the price would go down (similar to DOWNTREND above) but even sharp falls would not ignite a new lasting uptrend.
This pattern has happened to many, if not the majority, of altcoins. The difference that sheds light to Bitcoin's situation is that no altcoin that eventually died or is in a terminal decline, has made successive booms before that. It has always been the tulip mania -style one bubble and then bust and die. Bitcoin has made several bubbles and survived as many busts, making the chances of survival from this one also, much higher.
Bitcoin is much more usable now than 12 months ago when the price was 4 times higher. Unless the actual ecosystem goes into decline, I would not worry of Bitcoin dying. IF the ecosystem goes into decline, though, the price is already likely in a trash, because markets tend to forecast such events. Considering the price, I have no reason to remove the STRONG BUY from Bitcoin though. Just make sure you operate with funds that you are comfortable with.
965.
Post 10157946 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.49h):
BTC is only 50x my entry price (about 3 years ago). Like now, that was a major bottom. Should I buy more? Thoughts?
966.
Post 10158141 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.49h):
I listed my castle for sale. If I manage to flip now, even at a slight fiat loss, I would have gained 3x the bitcoins in a year. Decent trade, huh?
967.
Post 10177155 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.50h):
After years of research I have valued the entire BTC space at the same level as my arse. As no one has ever offered me hard currency for it, even for a few minutes' rental, this does not bode well for my position. Ah well.
I find it incomprehensible to
not be able to use Bitcoin just as you would use anything else, like gold, silver, XMR, and some fiats. If you are truthful in your assertion, perhaps you should choose your friends better, or discontinue writing on the forum.
Or both.
968.
Post 10261053 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.52h):
Condolences to those who sold at $170. They should have known better.
At least $ buys more € now so you can come to Europe and waste your money as long as it is still possible
969.
Post 10261129 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.52h):
someone put some btc up for sale asap! bitfinex and bitstamp books are running out!
^ THAT lets not go full retard just yet. Ask sides starting to look anorexic
970.
Post 10261203 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.52h):
Condolences to those who sold at $170. They should have known better.
...
And to those who held @$1200 hoping for the $300,000 coins you promised. Who lost more, I wonder
(you must know already that I don't reply to paid nuisances for their sake, but to make a point)
I bought at $3, held through several figures, and am about to lighten up at $300,000.
My general exhortation to buy BTC was at about $15 in February 2013. I have never since changed the recommendation, nor exhorted selling. So
people who actually do what I say, are now about 1800% ahead in 2 years. Previously they have earned a 100-200% gain in silver.
The point is that
me, and everyone who has followed my recommendations in full, is ahead. Take only what you wish, and apply your own, suffer the results as well.
Not interested in continuing the "debate" about things that have happened before your account is created. Hard to believe you could add value to them.
If you still can post tomorrow this time, the moderators are not doing their job btw.
971.
Post 10268216 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.53h):
If I wanted more BTC, I'd simply have put away a fraction of the money I made selling at the 2013/2014 juncture. I spent it all (or have it earmarked) for property development projects. Don't worry...I've got a decent amount of powder of the BTC variety dry.
I more or less got the posting bug out of my system over the last few weeks. The only interesting thing going on recently is the sidechains possibility which is probably the last hope to save Bitcoin as something worth saving. Also, gearing up for the 'gavincoin' fork war is something I should be focusing my efforts on, but it's such a hassle and a lot of work that I've been remiss...easier to post babble on trolltalk.
I tend not to be 'bullish' or 'bearish'. Price spikes and drops are just things that happen. Obviously they are emotionally exciting, but I expect both of them to continue so none of them are big surprises. I just call things as I see them and tell people what I am doing. Told people I was buying in the single digits. Told people I was selling in the four digits. Told people a few days ago that I'd probably be buying right now if I had no BTC and some money to gamble with. Maybe that's what turned the market around. Who knows? I mean anyone who is watching will probably listen to my thoughts more than the perma-bull bozos who look indistinguishable from pump-n-dump scammers.
My words exactly.
972.
Post 10268311 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.53h):
No way to know how many of those 1.9 million(now 2 ) are active vs just sitting on some milibits.
There are ways to know it, one is statistical analysis of the distribution of the bitcoin balances.
Because of the way bitcoin balances are created, their distribution follows some mathematical laws that can be used to model the distribution. This applies as well to the grand totals, as to (for example) the bitcoin balances that individual customers held at Mt.Gox and lost.
And it applies to Coinbase. Spending one hour, I could tell the answer quite well. But for sure
most of the 2 million are <
BTC1, because the average is probably around
BTC1 or a bit less.
973.
Post 10466142 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.58h):
264 wow. Looks like we are going to the moon this time
In my understanding, 300-350 is the (mental) stop-loss / short cover zone for many. Let's see
974.
Post 10469873 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.58h):
shmadz:
I am sure you realized he is from 2011, you're not. So shut up, willya?
975.
Post 10558036 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.00h):
Some absolute crap getting discussed today on here.
Take it to off topic.
So I'm here posting on this thread to ask other bitcoiners to en-masse ask the moderators to start monitoring this thread until the off-topic trolling -- in fact all the off topic posting -- goes somewhere else. You've been here longer than me, so you really should know: this
is the off-topic thread.
If you dislike this thread, open or read another one. Pretty simple.
Only the primest of all threads are moved from speculation to Off Topic. My original public diary was moved there eventually. The current one still resides in speculation after 300+ pages.
You have to try harder.
976.
Post 10978630 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.09h):
Wow. Consider me speechless, and now very angry.
Thank heavens I don't live in the USA.
Land of the free? Yep, highest incarceration rate in the world, mostly for minor herb offenses and/or political stances that run counter to the military-industrial complex and their chosen enterprises.
Home of the brave? More like home of the militarily emboldened, who are as happy abusing their own populace as meddling in the affairs of other sovereign states.
What kind of worthless regime cares more about the military than public health care?
I wouldn't care and would just put the USA on my list of countries never to visit except I have family there and I worry for their lives and freedom.
Also, I lived there for a half year back in 1968 when it still was basically a free country and it saddens me to see how low it has sunk. Pity.
- No money laundering laws (you had some control over your financial privacy, comparable to physical reality so that you have a reasonable assurance that you are shot only if you first do it to others; the same reason it used to be safe to encounter cops or anyone else on the streets despite that many carried lethal force).
- No legislation on substances or food (you had control over what to eat and how)
- No legislation on firearms. (They exist to keep the government in control, so the government has amassed more weapons that the entire rest of the world to keep its own citizens in control - scared, or what? Libya is a rare example of a country to have disbanded its military because it did not have anything to fear from its citizens. <- Was. )
Divine intervention does not count. In this case 100% of my wealth is reaffirmed to belong to God.
977.
Post 11126693 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.11h):
Do you know how to unsubscribe a thread without deleting all own posts?
978.
Post 11420023 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
979.
Post 11909338 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.21h):
BTC-E allows leverage, and this means that:
- some people have used it to go long
- they can be wiped out by forcing the price down to trigger automatic margin call
- some (other) people have access to the information on the margin call limits, either accurately or by deduction
- selling as much as to trigger the cascade, and then buying them back cheaper from the cascade, is called $$$ (profit)
- no real BTC need to be involved at all, because the operation happens completely in the exchange internal system
980.
Post 12254469 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.25h):
> Snowden and Assange, but... lets just say when you have a family your
> willingness to be a martyr diminishes."
When you have a family, you
care about the world you leave to your offspring.
If it is not worth dying for, it is not worth living for either.
(The scumbaggish attitude in the quote, is an epitome to why evil has already grown so prevalent - if you do nothing, that's what you get)
981.
Post 12780485 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.29h):
How many people committed suicide (or were thrown back into abject, inescapable poverty) when the Brazilian command and control fiat monetary system last collapsed (for the umpteenth time in a row)??
Bible predicts that 1/3 of mankind will perish in famine, war and disease when the U.S. fiat money ends.
982.
Post 12911564 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Once we get to 600 and then see the first weekly red candle, then the mini-rally is over. If you were in the business of speculation or wanted to lighten up, the good time to sell is the dcb after that. So wait for the bubble, and the pop, and the next bounce. Then sell.
983.
Post 12924005 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
my bitcoin are only worth what they were 6 days ago...
...after just hitting the yearly high
984.
Post 12924034 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.32h):
Yeah, after consuming 2 bottles of DP 2004 this week, it came to mind that I was drinking the same stuff also when celebrating $100. That was mind-blown, becoming a millionaire by holding virtual money!!
(I don't mean $500 was not nice, but the first time always feels best)
985.
Post 12951619 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.33h):
986.
Post 13309023 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
Follow the weekly Bitstamp chart. If it closes green for 6 times in a row, we are on bubble territory (currently 4 consecutive weekly greens). If we instead end this week in red, there is nothing to worry.
IF we get 6 greens, this means we can go on for a long time still but watch for a blowoff top and trade accordingly.
The methodology worked perfect in the latest 500 spike, and you can easily check a very good match with all previous bubbles as well.
987.
Post 13309325 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.38h):
we'll be at >500 soon, but <400 sooner.
Fibonacci rules as always. Target is 380, but the situation is so bullish I am not trading off chances. Just wait until we get the 6 consecutive weekly green candles and then try to time the top. 20% daily rise is pretty good sign, 30% (on top of the exponential rise) is a sure sign.
988.
Post 13988242 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
It's not every day I am called sexy so better qft...
989.
Post 14148937 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
WOW LOOK MONERO
Two whales clashing epicly... WOOOOOW, one get slauthered, I was looking at realtime... my god!
Which got slaughtered, the bullwhale or the bearwhale?
I did not get slaughtered.
990.
Post 14149021 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.47h):
Having stuff stored in the most secure ledger in the world is not free, so it should not be free. I felt bad when I sent a few BTC with a 0.001 fee. (No, not because I needed to pay €0.38 - because of the miners.)
991.
Post 18435974 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
Fear is already transitioning to anger..
..after which anger gives way to joy, but some need to go through many emotions in the meantime and miss out the Markka pump, which is not even halfway yet, just consolidating at 12 million to enable the next phase of investors to move money in. When the peg cannot be maintained, well obviously a move will result, that much seems clear to me, even without any insider info.
992.
Post 18501060 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
Crypto Kingdom has some arbitrage opportunities. Currently:
1 BTC = 3446 EUR
1 XMR = 50 EUR.
More links in this post.
993.
Post 18501149 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
^sup fool! ~ you are back! :-D loooong time ==r we going
/\$1337 now?
Yeah I had mentioned that CK is worth $100 million and the place was split in 2: some people believed me and sold all their deposhares (BTC, XMR) and the others sold all their CK currency (Markka)
Because of this I needed to fix the EUR to be 10,000*Markka (we did not want to lose the players), which also gives a nice opportunity for real gains from BTC/XMR.
And despite that sudden flash in the pan with alts usually ends up in a crash, let it be notified that here it does not, because CK has currency reserves that are automatically used to guarantee its markets:
25,168.57 XMR
273,576 EUR
150.918 BTC
That's about a million dollars dude, much more in reserves than BTC ever has..
994.
Post 18780605 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.08h):
995.
Post 18916023 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):
Who here is old enough to remember BTC dominance?
Me. (Obviously, knowing NL/Sirius, and they know Satoshi.)
996.
Post 18916250 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):
THX PAL
997.
Post 18918232 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):
There is no resistance above.
998.
Post 18934868 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):
[#301]
Cohiba Behike 54: *****
999.
Post 18935001 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):
[#301]
Cohiba Behike 54: *****
Finally snapped?
N'ah. 5/5 is not the highest grade[:
******* Singularity
****** Atm, I can't think of much better happening to me.
***** MINDFUCK>=3
COMAND RESULTS:
Mindfuck=3 (or higher, if Possible=1).
**** Unique Experience
*** Attribute=3 (time paused if
CAN; goes
MAD((== (
Sane=0))) about the sole thought (
FUCK) of
THIS [IS] HAPPENING)
** If this CAN be done (
FUCKED 1 []), I wont care about (*) shit.*
*
GIVE FUCK 1(-)
GIVE FUCK 0* Referring to the grading of State (/GIRL/WINE/etc(x5)) (as explained in this post).]
1000.
Post 18936020 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):
(HIM(2017-5-5)) Zechariah GIVE FUCK 1 [CONSUME CAN 0.5]
1001.
Post 18937887 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):
If anyone from the sec has been paying attention to dead china, screwed bfx, poloniex outages and insane price differentials something tells me they're gonna feel a little vindicated.
When does Ur charter expire?
1002.
Post 19060290 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.10h):
1003.
Post 19230874 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.11h):
I wish that we finish the week lower than the previous. Because 7 or more weekly greens is danger zone.
1004.
Post 19385714 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.11h):
I am in.
1005.
Post 53879234 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.15h):
I think BTC is going to rise.
1006.
Post 54039160 (copy this link) (by rpietila) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.20h):
