So many bids at lower prices... people trying to buy back in after the crash?

I corrected your statement, hope you don't mind

I believe the shitstorm's over for now... support around 135.

nope, don't see it. I'd say worst case = 125 by end tomorrow.

Out of curiosity, what is the real cost of mining a bitcoin by now?

Just trying to determine a better bottom...

H1 chart looks... shit. M15 looks like shit too. H4 tells me I have to wait 8 hours for confirmation = either shit or bounce. D1 starts looking similar to 2011. Shit.

I'm almost tempted to put in a couple of sell/buy orders to take advantage of the descending slope and get some extra coins. But Murphy's law loves me so I won't do that.

When everyone here will have lost hope - that will be the time to buy.

OMFG: the 120 wall has been eaten in few seconds

... and somebody just dumped 9k coins 

it looks to me like bottom-catchers have decided that 111$ is the new 5$.  

rpietila: dude, you shouldn't post while intoxicated. Doesn't do you any good. All you get is a sense of shame in the morning and a lot of PR repair work to be done.  

batcoin: LOL thanks

Anyone else: getting back in topic - M5 chart on Clarkmoody shows a triangle. Where do you think we are? Sucker's rally? Dead cat bounce up? Still long painful slide?

I believe that
1. Most miners have held their coins since January. Recent trends might make them want to dump the 100k coins produced since.
2. Not profitable for a western individual miner (exception made for Icelanders who have near-free energy) but in the short term very profitable for Chinese people with know-how or for businesses and loaded tycoons who can buy the chips from Avalon in batches of 10000 or build their own.

Sent from my phone sorry for spelling errors

Just wait. Not today.

You actually do, if everyone's sitting on the fence.

Looks beautiful to me...

rpietila, out of genuine curiosity and my lack of expertise, how does Fibonacci analysis take into account psychologic factors, like the investment "memory" in picture below (which IMHO looks a lot like the 2011 crash):



What's your take on that?

Indeed it is  
It'd be  nice if it had a way to represent depth on the vertical axis.

I was thinking more like landscape mapping with different colours.
Then the evolution of the walls over time would become a valley (or a canyon) and the price would be a river flowing in it.

92.5

Me starts wondering if in the next months we'll ever see the low 20's, like double of when the bubble started.

On a side note: in a way this is too exciting to watch and so addictive I can't sleep.
(And neither can a certain Finnish guy here who's been up almost all night in his timezone - no offence, I'm just saying, uh...)

Spambots or manipulator bots?

this.

Yet there is still little play downwards with very low volume going on.
I bet someone bought back in at 92-93 and now is shitting himself again. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Also everyone's fiat is still in the exchanges.
Expect rally on Sunday morning and subsequent dumps in few hours.
It will be a slaughtering game. The lucky ones will get more fiat for next round. Others will bleed. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

Just to prove us all wrong, someone put a market order for 95. This could start an early rally...  

Gox must be loving this. So much money in fees made today...

So now almost everyone is a bear? Investor cycle says we are going up then. 

See what is funny to me is that with no new money coming in for the last 4 days the people who are buying & driving the price up now are likely the same ones who sold and drove it down earlier.

The house always wins, so true.

BTC-E is popular but untrustworthy. Maybe selective scammers. Read the Service Discussion forum for details.
Bitstamp is ran by reputable members of the community (although "reputable" means very little in bitcoin world - see the Nefario/GLBSE story).

That said, if you're trading hundreds of BTC at a time, Gox and USD is unfortunately the only way to go.

wiiii! Dump time again!





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boj75h3urLU

Guys I know that weekends are boring but this is the wall observer thread.
A bit OT is OK but pages over pages of a different topic are not.
Would you mind flirting somewhere else?

Thanks

Someone triggered a market buy order for 4k coins when it was around 110. Brought the price all the way back up to 114.5 in the process.

Sucker or cut-loss? history will tell soon.

Will it be broken upwards or downwards? Short term bears are getting nervous and short term bulls seem to have gone to sleep.

a seller dumped... and a buyer saw "cheap coins" and pushed the "market buy" button.
Or... or... one was trying to induce a panic sell and one was trying to stop it.

Even in a boring Sunday there are at least two people with a spare half million USD to burn.

1000 BTC wall at 111 was moved up to 111.0001
170 BTC wall at 11.5 removed and reappeared behind the 1000BTC one at 111

I'd love to understand what game are these pro's playing. 

My theory is that when the knife falls too fast bots do panic: they all try to cancel their buy orders and execute market sells instead.
This makes things worse because then the engine starts lagging, adding delay to the feedback loop of the bots' decision process.

I think this one is a potential candidate for the famous predictions thread.
Time will tell soon enough.

We are all so gullible aren't we?  

The wall at 107 was gone by the time I went for a shower.

what a fast ignore.

This is slightly OT, but while the drama unfolds slowly and some are considering buying back in at a loss, did anyone notice the option to buy XRP with USD on BitStamp?
Yesterday they were selling at 100 XRP per USD; today at 50 XRP per USD.

You see it still looks like this to me:



So speculatively bullish short term, bearish medium term, bullish long term. But - there are a lot of buts (and butts) to be had:
- the Chinese have know-how and factories to build ASICs in massive amounts (bullish)
- another altcoin could come along the way and steal bitcoin's thunder (bearish)

Hence I'm still unsure what to do.

Speaking of XRP: I bought some yesterday for USD and sold for BTC a few hours later. It was little volume but that maneuver worked out for me like if I was buying BTC at 93 - while they were at 110.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boj75h3urLU

(I know I already posted this. I just find it funny every time, like I'm stupid I know, sorry  )

Here's my points

1. Gox is still the price setter. Not bitstamp nor btcchina. Gox still rules (unfortunately).
2. No fresh money has arrived on Gox yet. It is late night over there after 5 days with banks closed.

So if bulls have run out of ammo and bears too - which is likely so after 5 days with no fresh money coming in - mostly pigs are still trading, chaotically battling over a few coins. In these conditions price has to fall slightly*.
Because dollars are silently being peeled by Gox fees at every change of hands of every single satoshi.

Comments anyone?  

* EDIT: for the next few hours I mean. After that I have no idea what will happen.

Yawn, so low volume. Two bots flirting and some random guy buying half a bitcoin.

It is a bot. That number is its creators' signature. I think it's trying to buy at the minimum possible slippage.

Depends.

If most days they have been "reaching the maximum amount of buys within an hour or two", and if "some fixes for that are in the works", why did they have the need to blog about how good they are doing - who they are trying to appeal to? Wouldn't that generate even more load that their systems aren't able to handle right now?

I'm here with popcorns.

Since the volume is ridiculous and everyone's sitting on the fence, it might be the only chance you can have to manipulate the market with so little money - if compared to Mr. 2M wall.

But I think that the result is uncertain. Correct me here as I'm not good at charts - but I think that few hours ago 30k+ dumps in one hour only moved the price 10$ down.

uhm... never say never... downtrend is still going...

clash of the titans. Market orders all the way  

the one is dumping the other one is pumping. Epic. I had to hung up on a phone call with a friend. 

He also said “I have no confidence whatsoever in Bitcoin being a universal currency.”
And “I’ll put it this way, of our $49 billion, we haven’t moved any of it to Bitcoin”.
http://businesstech.co.za/news/general/37226/buffett-talks-social-media-and-bitcoin/

But in the last years he's not been always right - I read that some of his investments failed grossly.

With today's fees, Mr. Karpeles might want to buy his employees an extra bottle of champagne each.

Time to test it again, it seems...

The exchange is btcchina.COM not .ORG. they are UP.
And they had announced they were upgrading servers to cope with the extra load anyway.
As to some accounts being hacked, I don't know but I think it's totally possible. Chinese and Russians love to hack the shit out of themselves and anyone else. And never admit their own mistakes.

This.
Also transactions between me and the government (=taxes) would be part of the blockchain.
The government could then be made directly accountable for spending coins from their addresses.

Maybe next rally is gently tapping at the door. Maybe.

Note to self: re-prioritize task "replenish popcorn stash"

oh, shit.
Quick, let's all go pump and dump XRPs!  

ok ok apart from the jokes: thanks for pointing this out. I think short term such news is bullish for both BTCs and XRPs.
In fact I was trying to understand how come XRP/BTC exchange rate had gone from ca. 10000 to ca. 8500 today.

+1

but short term I think the Google Ventures news is bullish for both BTC and XRP.
While the Dwolla news is short term bearish.

We might see some action after all  

Not sure how this is good news  
Short term I think we are going to face a panic wave with all speculators trying to short sell.

Interesting battle ahead.

The Dwolla/DHS news is still not on any major news site. It is likely to be a big hit on tomorrow's news channels.
The Google Ventures news is also fresh although it applies to OpenCoin not much bitcoin.

Meanwhile on Gox: bottom catchers saw chances for cheap coins and are keeping the price above 115 right now.
We'll see soon if and how much the market cares about the Dwolla news...

On a personal drama note, I tried to ride the wave of dumps by short selling BTC and instead ended up having to buy back at same price while losing a coin in fees. Bummer.

I keep on wondering whether all these buys are due to bottom-catchers fishing cheap coins or due to people scared by DHS news converting their fiat to coins and moving them out of Gox in a hurry...

From the information we have the only affected businesses are the ones that use Dwolla+MtGox.

I think it would be much more important to know is how businesses using BitPay are affected.

BitStamp dump time again...

price difference between Gox and other exchanges is still higher than usual.

No doubt there are excellent news today and further rises are to be expected due to the conference in the next 3 days.
But also I think the Gox price rise is driven by people clearing their fiat on Gox by buying BTCs and withdrawing them the f# out.

Thoughts?

Fallen in few seconds
What a mighty show!

Aaaand... there comes the dump.

Still the dilemma is there to me. Are BTCs disappearing from order book because Dwolla/DHS or because people unsure where the rally will end this time?

Well, I know this sounds blasphemous but speculatively speaking, XRPs are doing wonders for me. Apart from the fact that I love the protocol, I can't give a rat's ass that XRPs are premined and are going to make OpenCoin filthy rich. I'd love to see more exchanges on Ripple so I could trade directly the BTC/USD pair on their shared orderbook. But meanwhile my XRPs I bought for playing with Ripple are worth double the BTCs I initially paid for them.

Looks like there is a party going on here!

Cool, I love parties 

I think the Liberty Reserve news is a big deal.
LRUSD was the virtual currency of choice for a lot of shady or barely legal businesses.
I estimate a few TENs of millions LRUSD are now suddlenly useless.

So what?

Let's be honest , most people in this thread have no desire of spending their hard earned coins anytime soon. BTC is more like an electronic improved version of gold. And it's not like I can go to a shop with half an ounce of gold in my hand and buy me a smartphone... at least not for the moment. And I don't care... gold is a commonly accepted store of value nevertheless. Enough for me to hold it and change it back into fiat at need.

If anyone quotes this please save me the lecture about BTC having no intrinsic value as opposed to gold. Perception is value.

Speaking of walls. It just occurred to me that the Night Watch needs a new captain.

Any volunteer? Frozenlock?

Sometimes I have to listen to the ones I disagree with. It is my judgment to decide whether I can learn something or not from them. If not (eg Jaroslaw) then there's the ignore button. And in fairness last week Coinseeker promoted himself out of my ignore list.

A little reminder. http://silverdoctors.com/one-year-in-hellsurviving-a-full-shtf-collapse-in-bosnia/

sorry no FUD intended but there might be a damn bad reason for price spike.

1. in light of last communication from Gox now all accounts have to be verified to withdraw/deposit fiat, so unverified users are buying BTCs and going away
2. can anyone here confirm a successful withdraw from MtGox in the last 5 days?

Thanks

Boy I am laughing so hard it hurts

If I had to do such manipulation I'd do with 0.01BTC not 1BTC.
To me it just looks like someone with enough cash and some scripting skills has decided to buy coins and wants to avoid slippage.

A song for you bears

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCe6e23yIT8

enjoy the moment while it lasts

but... but... next difficulty is like 15 million!

Let me call the worst bearish scenario I can think of.
Let's suppose all miners crap themselves and start dumping.
Let's suppose difficulty drops to 10 million because of some miners quitting the whole bitcoin mining thing (like it happened at block reward halving time last December).

Woudn't a 10 million difficulty sustain a price of at least 100$? 50$?

Also there are at least two retail markets that exclusively rely on bitcoins to function - one is selling drugs online and one is selling BTCs to people who can't directly access western currencies. Like it or not these markets are established since 2+ years by now. As long as they keep thriving the fiat value of BTC cannot drop to zero.

(cat pic original from simonscat.com)

Uh, I hear Proudhon's words "long downward slide" echoing in my head. Don't like it.

megalol!

Speaking of the devil: my XRPs' BTC value has appreciated more than 20% in last two days.
Don't shoot me...

EDIT: before you call me names, I hold both BTC and XRP. And I ain't selling any.

someone's got a bit of a cleanup work to do today 

Shhht! You broke the first rule of the Wall Observer Club 

 

I was like that. All in. Then my wallet's worth suddenly became worth just about a few decades of fiat savings with my job.  
Then April crash came. I couldn't sleep anymore. I was getting ill and turning into a zombie.
So I had to sell some coins. Take out what I put in - plus a proper premium for the hassle. Which I'm shopping for real estate with.
I know I miss on potential bigger gains. But if I'm unwell and die before becoming a big BTC millionaire all my waiting will just have been a sad mistake. My coins are not coming in the grave with me, for fuck's sake.

I still have a lot invested in crypto. But I can sleep at night. And I can laugh at price drops. And be here for the lulz, siding once with the bears and once with the bulls. Never invest what you can't afford to lose, so true and I had to learn the hard way.

When everyone panics --> price recovers.
When everyone says "rocket to the moon" --> price falls.

So I am not pleased with you promoting bullish sentiments. 
Please go back panic with the others, or the party is over. 

funny pic. Was it taken at the bitcoin conference?
'cos it's almost as if the feds sent a couple of agents there to write down all the names of payment processors.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxroiTRg7Tg
(read the subtitles! Listening at insane volume highly advised)

Story's on Wikipedia anyway. Next 2 seasons as well.

 

EDIT: the WALL observers, isn't that ironic? 

Jon Snow's new girlfriend. That's my woman.

GAME OF THRONES PORN - SPOILER ALERT

Joffrey will get killed soon enough. I remember it's in the books but not sure it happens this season.

 

LOL. Stark support broken.

There lies the problem. You choose what is bubble data and whatnot.

Dunno... I see no walls anymore   I am kinda missing the times when walls were walls of steel made for men with balls of steel.

And buyers stopped buying...

I wonder which month of 2011 we are in?

 

It's called early retirement for a reason  

Nope. Mr. Manip only strikes twice in a row. The third time would be otherwise too easily predictable

I expect next wash-rinse-repeat cycle from him in no less than 6 weeks - like when the memories of his distinctive pattern will have faded enough. 

Can't believe it only takes 120 coins.
This is getting ridiculous.

Is it just me or this canyon has gotten a tad steeper if compared to few days ago?

Perfect. Bad press will only accelerate diffusion. We need this.
Because bitcoin is to money what mp3 has been for music.
Fighting it will only bring it to the attention of a larger audience that over time will discover its qualities.
OK it will take a few years and some bruises. But people aren't stupid in the long run.

does it mean that the sum of all bids is expressed in USD and the sum of all the asks is expressed in BTC?
sorry for noob question

Didn't help me with SEPA and I'm also fully verified.

I asked them to cancel after 3+ weeks. No money lost. Caused me some damage as I was waiting on that money to pay some bills. I posted about it in the original delays thread.
In comparison BitStamp SEPA has never given me hassle.

 

"There seems to be an issue with the login"

Seriously? Are they sure? Because it seems so.
The world's biggest bitcoin exchange. What a fscking joke.

As usual their communication is amateur BS.
Maybe behind the curtains their Japan bank account has been frozen for 30 days pending review.
Inside our hearts we all know that sooner or later it was going to happen. Maybe it is about time to shed a tear and discover what happens to bitcoin without Gox.
Maybe.

Mmm... I sense a replay of the Dwolla-news-effect is coming - just an order of magnitude bigger this time.
Prepare to see price going up on Gox and down on other exchanges.

Where we go from there is uncharted territory. Make your bets gentlemen  

Damn good point. I got to a stupid conclusion thanks for spotting it straightaway.
Ah well I blame it on this morning's hangover. Need more coffee.

Well the news is out and it's not like I am seeing mega dump... yet. Actually we are up to 109.8 while I am writing.
In regards to what I wish personally nope I don't give a heck about the price on Gox
I don't have a single cent / BTC there since last SEPA troubles in April.

At any moment in bitcoinland any service can suddenly vanish. No matter how big the service and no matter how reputable their owners are.
(yeah fuck you James McCarthy. Always fuck you.)

If any of these failures damaged you in the past you are likely not to trust anyone with your coins. And you are ready to pack your bags and go at the first signs of something that doesn't sound right to you.

(I know it's not directed to me but in the mood for answering anyway  )

No effing way.


Anyone who is willing to take a huge risk. Or anyone who is confident there is no risk.
Fool | mad speculator | insider.

Well there are also a few options that can invalidate the expected sudden spike theory in my own list of possibilities.

1. I underestimated the % of fools.
2. the rumours were there already one week ago, now we have the news.
3. Insider trading already happened. This caused the price spike in the first place.

Ahem, a long debate between cynical materialists and tree huggers... in the Speculation forum's Wall Observer thread?
You guys are quoting each other in full. It's like entire full pages I have to skip through by now.
Can we give it a break?
Sorry it had to be said.

FYI

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=231960.msg2531177#msg2531177

Someone did  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238790.msg2532945#msg2532945

Btw. Just saw this.
https://pro.bitcoincharts.com
Wondering which ones are the exchanges involved?

Unless you are taking a dump 

1. It's summer weekend. Only losers like me are reading this.
2. Or they all are on IRC trying to understand what really is going on

Thanks for the link. It is providing entertainment indeed. :-)

Huh? I thought liquidity was, by definition, the capability to take money in and out?

If you believe Gox is dying then put your money where your mouth is 
http://bitbet.us/bet/147/mtgox-out-of-business-by-end-of-year/

I don't get why inflation should be inherent to the monetary system as you say. I don't get why a dollar's purchasing power should decrease over time.
Suppose there was a finite and constant amount of $ (yeah right)
Suppose the population is increasing so the number of economical subjects is increasing.
Suppose the amount of food they need is also increasing.

The amount of $ is finite and constant, but there are more bananas being produced over time. The bananas are still priced in dollars. My logic says that an increasing quantity of bananas will be worth less dollars per banana.

I understand that the argument against deflationary currencies can be summarized like that:
The increasing purchasing power of the dollar would bring people to hoarding dollars instead of cultivating bananas.
This in turn would make the population starve.

Then I say: This in turn would cause bananas to become more valuable, hence their price in dollars would go up again. It seems pretty self regulating to me. With the added bonus that we'd stop producing more bananas than we really need.

s/dollar/bitcoin I think this is what we are trying to do.

Where did I get it wrong?

That would account for enough EM radiation to slow cook everyone's brain.

I wonder which exchange should be used to determine such value. Like the one where you can't take dollars out or the ones that aren't based in US?

I think someone is constantly dumping but not on Gox. Spread across exchanges is high again and BitInstant walls are into dumping shape.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272454.0

There are two more complaints in the main withdrawal delays thread: someone claims he has not been able to take coins out since July 29 and someone else claims that he always gets an error message saying his IP was banned due to too many attempts - even if he tries to connect with another computer and different IP.

I'm just thinking that when everyone's partying and there are no bears left I start smelling blood.

In other words I see no reason for this price move up. Baidu news? Naah, that address only got a few transactions and lots of spam.
So wtf is going on? To da moon? new paradigm? 300kUSD/xBT? The singularity? Don't think so.

Time to move some coins from cold walled to Stamp.

There is very little volume so price is going up fast with only a few buys and no asks. I am condescending if I say where such behaviour usually leads to?

Or maybe a few entities with deep pockets are staging some hell of a crash in order to harm the bitcoin economy.

Meworries

Predictable vs unpredictable.

Predictable because lots of new suckers have entered the market. Like in April. So they are likely going to bleed the same way.
Unpredictable because most people can see the resemblance to April. So they will try to profit from that knowledge, likely generating a different result this time.

So what do you guys think? Is there really resistance at 800? Consolidation or crash? The volume is kinda low...

Well it's undeniable that this is the first Monday that China has stopped pumping.

And - not that TA matters that much, but anybody else sees a pennant on the 15 min 2 hour chart right now?

EDIT: corrected

Do you mean "up" as in this?

(sh*t I can't work)

Yet I have to see the big drop to 300-500 that so many oldtimers here seem to be expecting.

1700 coins dumped down from 837 to 800 on Stamp... boy that was either careless or plain silly.
Someone has too many coins to care, I guess.

A single picture at the right time is worth a thousand laughs.
Thank you!  

Almost everyone is a bull here, even during a megadump like this one.... uhm...

Trust me the rollercoaster is not over yet. Either sit on the fence or try and gamble your luck...

Bitstamp selloff on low volume. Let's open the weekend dances.

Meh. I smell blood and I don't see blood yet.

(Hope it won't be mine)

Right move from Baidu at the time, in fairness. Not worth keeping a btc address with an exchange rate that fluctuates a lot for those about 30 people who paid in btc in total, in a month.

On a side note: it seems to me that the sentiment in this forum is quickly moving towards bearish, which conversely means to me that there's hope we don't tank so much.

It's happening anyway. But only on Stamp so far.

Meh.

We all know this is the suckers' rally after the crash, as in the second day of April's tree shake.
We all expect it to go down again.
Which might not happen because we all expect it  

Well I built my GPU mining rig because it was fun to create a liquid cooling system for the CPU and all 6 GPUs, with PWM control of all 4 fans and the pump itself.

Not a good investment, that rig. But it was fun

Hmmm

Dead cat stuck in flight.

In quiet office rooms around the world some self proclaimed bears are now starting shitting themselves.

what was that? Sharp knife on all three major exchanges at the same time?

Turns out it is due to a Max Keiser's tweet. He is likely the whale playing us all.

in a few hours. Most of US is still sleeping. Just wait for the sheeple to wake up to the manipulator's tweet...

so many bounces back and forth. General trend is downwards.

My guess:
The price rise was too fast. Most self-appointed day traders who got into bitcoin in the last two months are still drunk from their fiat gains, and now they are trying to play each other like in a casino. At each tree shake, some more of them get their butt hurt and decide to quit the green table with the leftover of their "win" before they lose it all.

For the same principle that makes it so that most lottery winners lose all their wins in a short time frame, I think it will take 2-5 more months for the market to accept a $1000 BTC price as the new norm.

In regards to all the alleged new money entering the game because of good news, ask yourself: if it looks like a bubble deflating right now, would you really buy in at 800$ or would you rather wait to get in around 300-500?

Only time will say how many these new investors are and how patient.

Wait till fear sets in and makes you and me and someone else want to defrost their cold storage...

And someone else is selling one at a time.
Slightly more sellers than buyers so far...

Depends what you define by "large". People with tens of millions have offshore accounts and know-how to evade capital controls.
It's rather some of the middle class that is likely to jump onboard because of those news.

In fairness you do have a point. But if anything, some of us who aren't good at trading have bad memories from April - and also no urge to sell coins.

So what? Rent is paid and so are the bills. The job is solid and Xmas presents are bought already. On the other hand, the remaining stash of coins has too much potential to risk losing them gambling.

Karpeles doing a Zhou Tong on everyone?  

One could swing the price a lot with just a few coins.

It's almost middle of December: people running out of fiat from last month's pay. Spending coins buying xmas presents.

Odds are that the first move will be a megadump - and the subsequent blood bath will keep us entertained for the weekend.

BTCChina doesn't seem to care, silently scooping up western coins.

Weee! Raid time!

 

Someone please upvote on reddit  
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1sqwp4/go_to_financeyahoocom_and_vote_for_bitcoin_at/

bitcoin fanatics tend to have many IP addresses indeed 

Can't agree more 

New TA figure: "tight ass" = U-shaped bottom on low volume.

I think we are losing steam again. Not that anyone here follows TA but now I see the triangle that Le Happy Merchant spotted.

 

Ah well. We are either drawing an anus to that ass or it's capitulation time...

Guys. If I had just hold all the time I would be a multi millionaire, in dollars, today. Just saying.

Is AIB is still in deep shit, and 98% state-owned?

China has the largest volume of the lot, and it is going down, slowly but constantly. It has tested the psychological support threshold @ 5000 already 3 times today, and failed to break that dam until now. Will see what happens but honestly the overall scenario is bearish so far.

Here's what I'm pulling out of my ass: if the day ends with the 1D candle in green territory and if tomorrow we also get another green candle, then choo choo is more likely than trainwreck.

Nevertheless: every day that passes with btcusd over 800 makes this new price range generally accepted and hence a return to the 500's less likely. In which case I'd kinda feel sorry for rpietila because he has made some great contributions to the forum. While being happy for myself of course

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=372998.new#new

Some say FUD but it seems that it got the attention of BTCChina traders.

Quote is from another thread. Reporting here for speculation on what happens next


That would cause a run on BTCChina's coins in order to cash out on Stamp/Kraken etc. So BTCChina's coins might become even more expensive than Gox' ones...

That can be interpreted as a move aimed at slowing the market down, e.g. either prevent chain reaction shorting or vice versa to prevent a run on btcchina's coins in order to get the f* out.

One thought about the 0.3% fee:

1. Clearly BTCChina knows some shit is coming.
2. How about all those HFT bots that have been programmed with the assumption that fees are 0%?  Someone is going to get burned, badly.

Fantastic timing for blockchain to go down on maintenance.  

Now I think many are thinking same way as you are. Fear is setting in  
Expect blood bath.

That said I have a schedule to respect, and I can only sell some or buy some at predefined price points.
So I am going down with the ship - if destiny wants it. My coins are not on sale now.
</me wears sailor's hat>
And if the party ever comes to and end, then thank you all for the hell of a ride.

I yet have to see the capitulation signal with the two long candles (a red one and a green one) and high volume on both of them. Until I see that we still are in recession times. Point. And now I believe we'll be in recession for weeks.

Maybe I am delusional long term bull but I expect that, to some degree, this "bubble pop" is going to redistribute wealth more evenly across a larger public, preparing for next wave of buyers to come in and continue along the bumpy roads of the unstoppable bitcoin revolution while btc services grow.

When the dust will have settled, most pigs will have lost their sudden wealth from November's incredible times, which will be then spread across many more little new buyers. And a little elite of Spartans who held and speculators who guessed correctly the tops and bottoms will be even wealthier than before.

1. most small investors cannot create accounts on western exchanges
2. the FUD says they have time until Jan 31 to withdraw fiat from the bank.

mmm.... dead cat bouncing off the stairs again  

Quite sure that graph is 2013 not 2012. I have vivid memories of those times.

Some Chinese traders haven't had a good night of sleep.

AFAIK Gox will never recover those 10 million dollars (5+5) from seizures in US. So it was not much FUD. They were (are?) operating a fractional reserve. That might not be the case anymore because of the fees on all the new money that came in during these last months.

Or maybe not much. They sold the rumour, they might as well buy the news.

I'd love to take those btc bags off them but my monthly budget doesn't allow for it right now.

The bears came en-masse and crashed our party.
Now we are tidying up. It will take a while.
When they are done firing their ammo we'll retaliate and take over their bunker. Stay tuned.

retest bottom of 3251 CNY.

I can't make memes at work. Imagine usual meme of scared face. Text below.

WHAT IF

(meme)

RPIETILA WAS RIGHT?

 

 

YeePay?  Regular Chinese bank accounts? Guess.  

Tonight I quit a boring company Xmas party early to go to a bitcoin meetup. Win.

Ever heard of btc24?

It's not like they had a good night of sleep the day before...

EDIT: and most bots are now down because trading fees.

So you weren't there. About a week before btc24 stopping trading and admitting the seizure of the funds, btc24 troll box started being full of complaints from people that hadn't received their fiat withdrawals for two weeks. Price went up 20% higher than Gox before they stopped processing any withdrawals including btc. I quit at a 10% loss, just a few days before fuckup.

Why quoting the champion of ignore lists? Cui prodest?

Now for the lulz:

http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/bitcoin-hackers-reportedly-target-peoples-bank-of-china/

Pff. I missed the top of the sucker's rally. I was temporarily busy with real life, how annoying.

As I expected the Chinese started the second wave of dumps. Now it is going to be interesting to see how much the other markets do care. There is a lot of fiat left at the exchanges, making people nervous.

I believe there still are Chinese coins to be sold. Deadline for selling is Jan 31st, although most of the traders are getting the f* out early, since they are scared the exchange can close at any time if the PBOC changes their mind again. That is a surplus of BTC supply that western markets will have to handle, right when most wallets don't have extra spare cash because Xmas.

My ass says no with 80% confidence.

Everyone's exhausted. Bots are dominating the scene.

Yup, it's missing btce. Noticed. Also no fresh news.

 

Reminds me of Gox saying they are in talks with other banks.

You might be right, you might be wrong, who knows.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_fXbqZxk67WU/TGlzRQTG56I/AAAAAAAAAFk/uhOhojB7TZw/s1600/TradingCyclePsychology.JPG

Now that one is another crash coming.

FBI has no jurisdiction to seize coins in Ireland. Any link with specific details of the seizure please please please...?

The article says that the guy was arrested by Garda Siochana, which is the Irish police.
So unless the Irish police are dumb (which is also a possibility), the coins stay with an Irish court.
Otherwise I foresee an interesting diplomatic issue arising very very soon.

Btw - an Irish friend of mine in chat just called Noonan "a twat" and pointed me to this: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/three-key-truths-about-the-bailout-which-we-are-only-learning-now-1.1629738

You sod!

 

ah ok, thanks for lecture, I must be new.

And if she was wearing a skirt, nobody could focus on the topic of the conference anymore  

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

Middle of the night. Most traders are sleeping - and maybe they have lost interest for now. Bots are mostly off because trading fees.

much slippage, very wtf

603...602...601...

EDIT: KABOOM!

Silk road 2 dealers/mods maybe in urgent need to launder btc, get the cash and disappear?

Go buy a Lambo if you're the legal age for driving one. That's likely more exciting than pouring your bored ego on a half dead bitcoin talk forum on NYE.

That is something that bothers me, hypothetically.

There is a minority of international SR users that never purchased or sold anything illegal. They happened to have some coins there, maybe with the intent of wrongdoing - but SR closed in their face before they did any. Or maybe they were just using SR as an online wallet. These are not US citizens. What gives the US government any right to steal their coins?

tragedy of the commons maybe

OK, everyone panic now please. We are going down quickly on low volume. This is the end for sure. Final call. You have been warned!

Like!
This would look nice on a wall in my living room. Any chance you can output some vector format eg PS or PDF?

Wow, fear is setting in. Watch out. Denial might come next.

Personally not selling. I'm just too scared it might fuck me sideways as it did in the past.

but everyone is watching. Yes, fear is here big time.

the constant grinding continues. 

So many new opportunities to spend coins... and it seems the supply of coins is higher than the demand right now.

I'd say it's stealing litecoin's spotlight.
Not bad for being a simple copy and paste of an old litecoin release...

And it is because of many people thinking that way that it might not happen when you want it to. Exciting times...

I have a feeling about this.

I believe that:

1. the get-rich-quick sheeple are silently dumping
2. the bots are from coinbase/bitpay (because they have a lot of interest in keeping the price really stable) and from some fiat whales who are silently getting in without slippage.
3. new get-rich-quick sheeple + early dumpers who want back in - they are not buying and waiting on the sidelines instead because April 2013.

It is a nerve grinding game. Anything could happen in the immediate.

 

Ok, ok, I stop trolling, promise 

why on Gox instead of Stamp   that is above my understanding.
They could also have set lower granularity, eg 1btc with some random time in a range. That would have been much less visible.

I think we need more cowbell

Stamp

But... but... if everyone sold waiting for the price to drop so they can buy back in, won't the market move in the opposite direction? 

I speculate that there are stabilizer bots and destabilizer bots: the former ones are built to keep the price in a certain range and the latter ones are made to make waves and wipe the floor from the former ones before a whale makes a big manipulative move.

I'm impressed that the market is not reacting at all at the Wells Fargo presentation announcement (which to me is uber bullish). In other times that would have caused a jump of a few percent up...

Interesting thing is that most of us expect the market to play like April 2013. That is one of the reasons why it is more likely not to going to repeat itself. It might turn into a much more bullish scenario with no capitulation at all or, viceversa, in a long downward slide* a-la-2011.

* (c) proudhon, I believe.

Leaves me unimpressed. Not for international users. Advertising AMD GPUs to mine bitcoins. Mentioning BFL in their FAQ. Boy this is so 2012  

watch your head guys - it's raining dead cats  

"we" as in you and who else?

744...3...2...

Did anyone see that?

740 resistance broke @ stamp, and went down to 735 in 3 secs.

Thanks  

wow 750 is now resistance...

I want my 1.8 BTC back, dammit.

warning - bear turning greedy - could be first sign of bounce in sight

Meh. 6H chart does not look like choochooeing to me.

Merket stalled, some sells for a few coins are causing a few dollars price drops.

I have a feeling of shitstorm coming and I don't like it at all.

Me feels fear and it sucks.

Boy that was a slap in the face of an otherwise reasonably stable chart.

I would not dismiss it too early.

I hate silence.

Can Gox please die forever? It has become an embarrassment to our community. We can't be taken seriously enough with Gox being still around.

Funny Gox, they include a timezone but they forget to tell the time.

I recon it's going to be two weeks.

Damn I chickened out and pulled all my nice buy spreads this morning.

And I missed the manslaughter fest  
Guess I'll have to wait for the next dice roll this afternoon.

Look, here's how I think:

The fundamentals are good but the whole economy could be sustained with only 25 dollars a bitcoin so this high price is driven mostly by speculation. Not that I see anything bad in profiting from speculation, although the actors here are mostly nerds that are not able to manage a sudden increase of their wealth, and hence most of them are going to lose it gambling it away the same way they got it. (I include myself in this category)

So I think that all of these price swings are caused by the same old actors gambling each other's ass on the exchanges. Not enough new money coming in.

My friends who are geek enough to figure out how to buy bitcoins but yet not crazy enough to have jumped on the bandwagon last year or earlier - they all say "it is too expensive now, I'll buy some when it gets to [insert number between 100 and 300]".
The fact that we got to 1000$/BTC surely got their attention (and envy) - but yet it doesn't dawn on them that they could buy a tenth of a coin right now. Psychologically, to them, 700$ is just too expensive. And I can't blame them - they look at the 1D chart and they say "it's a bubble". I value their views because those make a sample of the people that are going to drive the next wave of price increases. It's up to them, not Wall Street. Wall Street does not give a f* about bitcoins, litecoins, dodgycoins or whatever rocks your boat. At least not yet. They will get in to make profit in dollars (and so do you, at the moment). So do resellers.

Let me guess: two weeks

weeeelll...  apart from Satoshi I believe that MP is also in that 300k+ situation

BTC-E updating their wallet software ()

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=457642.msg5062009#msg5062009

(I kinda have a feeling...)

Caught in a landslide, No escape from reality.

BOOM!

https://www.bitstamp.net/article/bitcoin-withdraws-suspended/

... or with the fact they offer leveraged trading?

More like a bomb in the building

a SHTF situation is the best way to speed up a fix for a 2-year old low priority issue...

Never used it, read that leverage 3x thing on a post here, if it turns out that it's BS sorry.

You'd think the other board members could have silently replaced the seat with an electric chair by now.

They're quite a bunch anyway. I speculate that Karpeles still holds the seat only because he knows uncomfortable secrets about each one of them but Jon Matonis and Gavin.

1.8 BTC I paid 

Here is your testbed, right under Mark's ass. It is air-gapped indeed

Not everyone reads this forum and checks prices every day.
See threads like: "I was away, what happened with GOX"?

Great. So Stamp will be going down in the next days albeit slowly, because arbitrage.

If it turns out that they just changed the message then this is the longest con ever...

All we need is some balls

So, short term: if Gox enables BTC withdrawals, Stamp will go down because arbitrage. If Gox doesn't enable withdrawals, Stamp will go down because Gox dying will bring everyone down.

It looks to me like we are out of short-term scenarios where Stamp price goes up?

Mass hysteria caused by fear of losing it all. Early miners and historical Gox clients are the ones being shafted. This is the mother of all tree shakeouts. And I think we are only seeing the beginning of it.

I believe that there will be a few bounces on Gox on the way down. Too much cash was left on the table. Too many gamblers will be thinking it hit the bottom this time and will try to buy back in lower.

Halting trading is not in their interest. This last move is part of the long con.

This is going to be fun to watch.

The market was just looking for an excuse to sell. Gox gave it to them. These things go in cycles.

Would you think that it will play more like 2011 than 2013 this time?

Wait a minute. I was a BBS user back in the time of 300bps modems. Emoticons were invented in the mid 80's, so your statement is technically false.

 

 

3k coins... Wonder if any of them are goxcoins that somehow escaped the goxprison

They are just trying to be funny. After all they built their public personas that way.

'Morning, I just woke up.
Where did the 261 wall go?

Generally these kind of sudden dips happen some twenty minutes before bad news on their official page...

I vote for the latter. The dying beast won't go without a blow

+1

The same 80k coins over and over again I'd say

Blitz do you mind me asking what is your lowest bid on Stamp?
Just trying to understand what kind of contingency an old timer like you is prepared for.

In the form a stream of one liners yes

The wolf of Tokyo closing shop and ratting everyone out?
I don't exclude this one as a real possibility.

Don't think so. The effect of such perturbation will be seen in subsequent waves at a slightly decreasing frequency over time as it usually does.
Mitigated by the strong support in the high 500s, for as long as that support lasts.

If nothing else this is going to be a blood bath for some whaleosaurs, thus favoring some sort of redistribution of wealth.

Lol'ing hard here, thanks

(Gox) Sad circus was fun to watch for a while, now can we get it shutdown and gone out of the way please?

Meanwhile on Reddit...

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1yfazx/mtgox_have_left_the_building_claims_receptionist/

Sure that hotel will have space for the helpdesk workers - except they all got fired and sold their own coins a few hours ago, just before initiating last round of money transfers to their own bank accounts.

R.I.P. Confirmed. With sources.

Sources:

http://m.chiebukuro.yahoo.co.jp/detail/q12119904367

EDIT: f* that was removed fast.

Nothing is going to happen.

sarcasm(sarcasm(x)) = x
sarcasm(sarcasm(sarcasm(x))) =  

I'm lost.

I for one found your joke funny and not so private, if not a little obvious of a joke by now  

And I think you said in the past you lost some money in recent trades, so that strikes me as you being able to laugh even when you're a tad under.

On unrelated news, Stamp is at 595 right now.

double goxdigits in a matter of hours.

This is going to hurt the bitcoin economy for a few more weeks.
I smell fear but not desperation yet here.

Damn!
People please lose hope so we can get over with it.

It's not the exchange, it's the people. All of us.
Today it is the turn of some of the ones who bought over 600, who are slowly selling. While telling themselves "maybe I take a little hit now and wait to buy back lower"...
Sunk cost fallacy slows the descending phase of a bubble down.
This could as well keep going for months. It reverses when the majority has lost hope.

It's called karma.

Were I to be them, moving forward I would also X-ray scan all incoming mail.

The bowl on my couch table is out of peanuts and I'm sick today.
Would you mind sending me some?

1DcdBAa8bzjH8Zb8YKaeaemdfZZCL3Toif

http://bitbet.us/bet/751/mtgox-out-of-business-in-2014/

Saw the same bet last year but maybe this year the result changes...

Boy I forgot how depressingly boring was every moment of calm after a drop  

Wasn't Full Tilt forced into insolvency by seizures and banks reversing transfers and refusing to do business with them because regulators?

I can withdraw atm. Thanks for the heart attack.

Not good for a market that is already dipping its toes in fear.

This rise is too fast. Is there something on Gox website?

Iinsider trading on fresh news not yet on the website - I tried for a 20140222 announcement link but I have a 404.
Maybe something was said on IRC? Anyone?

I see. That would be enough to renew hopes and spark a rally. What are the new limits looking like?

That post is from a few hours ago. This move instead is way too sudden. Something must have changed in the Gox interface that triggered it. Someone suggested a change in their withdrawal limits. I don't have a Gox account handy anymore. Can anyone confirm please?

Thanks   that's how I remember it so no change, I think.

Now my other theory is that someone tried BTC withdrawals and... they got through.

EDIT: clarified that those are same limits as before

boy are you full of shit. Seriously. For f's sake!
Those are the same limits as before, for a verified standard account (EDIT: corrected).

If you have real news please bring them on the table.

And down Gox goes again.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ymwzj/mtgox_still_authoring_invalid_transactions/

Looks more and more like flying dead cat on its way back to earth.

My understanding is that because of the immature coins problem, mr. K. had setup automatic reissue. Basically when a Gox-initiated transaction would not appear in the blockchain for a certain time, some cron-job-or-whatever would credit the user back with the coins. I speculate that the job was, of course, looking for transactions by txid.

Now think of these two scenarios:
1. transaction fails because of incorrect padding; Gox credits the amount back to user; user fixes the transaction manually and rebroadcasts it; transaction succeeds
2. transaction fails because of immature coins; Gox credits the amount back to user; user rebroadcasts the transaction; transaction succeeds

Both scenarios have, by default, nothing to do with malleability. But still they will cause Gox' accounting to go bananas and some very happy users, who could then go malicious and try to find a way to iterate the process and empty Gox' wallets.

Malleability also makes it worse because even when automatic reissue is turned off, once the malicious user has learned that Gox support people are trained only to look for transactions by txid, he can rebroadcast the transaction with a different txid and still complain to Gox support that he did not receive his coins.

biafore, is that you?

Mmm. Buying pressure did not vanish as expected. Also almost everyone here is a bear. Risky times.

131 ask wall at 610. Was removed after being eaten for one third

Bitcoin Foundation insiders do know stuff earlier than others. So did Coinbase, probably (which maybe has something to do with that 10k wall?).

That was an opportunity to make money off the herd of us, like any other. I do not even know whether we should get upset about it anymore. Knowledge is power. Insider trading will always happen.

Short term it's not. Long term it is. Just wait for wave 2 and 3 of dumpers while the price temporarily recoups. This is gonna haunt the market for a few more weeks.

Btw. Hails to TERA for being right again and again in such difficult times.

It would be interesting to graph the combined BTC depth on Gox + Stamp + BTC-E exactly around the bottom of last summer and compare it to what it is now.

My theory being that in case the capitulation happens out of everyone losing interest, the bottom looks much more like a long U-shaped one than a quick drop and recovery, and then I expect the depths to be quite low when it happens? Do I make sense at all?  

Meanwhile someone put a 1000btc ask wall at 578.5 in front of the 5000 one at 580, and it is slowly being eaten.

One or two whales are - maybe they do have information. Insofar the market is very slowly but constantly betting against them, and eating the walls.

That is interesting to watch. Where does this little army of buys come from?
I think it is either one of the first signs that we are close to the bottom or just another station on the way to hell. Who knows.

what's up with China and BTC-E, btw? Why now are they constantly higher than Stamp?

Thanks for your generosity, Mr. Whale.
This single move of yours just made me earn the salary equivalent of one week and half work.
I know for you it must be peanuts, but I'm fairly happy feeding off your crumbles.  

Dude. "Rich" and "dumb" are enemies. One can be both things only for a short period of time. And this one is surely rich. On whether he is soon to be poor, that has to be proven.
So far all we know is that he had 5.5 million to spend, and he burned 150k in the process.

I can see how a fat overconfident nerd with low social skills, who happened to have stepped on this very powerful "bitcoin" toy, could end up isolating himself while digging his own paranoid prison.

Now someone please turn my monitors off and get me out of here!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model

I think your post is at stage 3: Bargaining.

Noted, thanks

I think we need more cowbells

I really hope that is his pocket money, I like the guy. He sold SD for peanuts and in a hurry and fled US for a nice tax heaven country, didn't he?
I think many cougars in this community are impacted, just because they used Gox from the start and couldn't be arsed with securing their coins.

More like I'm calling sick for work.

Brace yourselves. Here comes wave two.

Make two encrypted copies of everything and leave one copy with trusted people who live far away.

Bearish  

What with this 0.00636 bot on Stamp?

102 coins bought in one go to break that 575 micro wall @ stamp...

boy this feels slow and painful.

Bearish in the immediate. Ukraine is already having a run on banks. Hrvnya (local currency) lost 20% of its value in few days. When SHTF, euros and rubles in cash are deemed a safer and more spendable option. Food, weapons, bullets and medicines even better. Who cares about bitcoins then?

In theory it would be bullish only if bitcoins in the population were to be an instrument that is diffuse enough to replace cash and smartphones with internet access were guaranteed to stay working during the war. Oh, and also if unicorns were real, too.

Little reminder about SHTF situations: http://www.silverdoctors.com/one-year-in-hellsurviving-a-full-shtf-collapse-in-bosnia/

Me neither. It keeps reading "This user is currently ignored."

Generally when bitcoin takes a cold, alts take swine flu.

Volume has gone silent and frequency of posts in this forum too; that in itself is a sign of depression times.

Someone put a little ask wall of 200 coins at 560.5 and it was fully bought into.

Yup sorry, corrected

I wonder whether he was testing if 560 is some sort of ghost bid wall or if he is trying to get upwards momentum before dumping?

Wow. Someone slammed on that market buy button pretty hard.

Fucksake why does all exciting stuff happen while I am supposed to be sleeping?

9:13 AM in Japan. Hotline officially opens at 10AM.

Like a thousand+ coins in a single buy? Hmmm

1936 coins to go down to 560. What-the-fluff-is-happening?
There must be news somewhere. Either that or gigantic pump.

The temptation to sell into that wall...

Wow, I just woke up and saw those couple million dollars are scaring the shit out of the bears. Wow!

I wonder where sturle is hiding his face now. I remember him incessantly defending Gox in the Service Discussion threads throughout 2013.

this is fun to watch

Aren't you supposed to be working? 

lol I can't tell if you are trolling or not 

continuing the OT for fun, I think that if the world population continues growing so fast, then buying LAND now will in the future turn out more profitable than gold and silver...

"BOOM!!!" said the Champagne bottle 

What
The
Fuck.

And I'm all coins.
Seriously?

Hence tomorrow it's "sell the news" day?

were it to be really good news, then we would have had big buys a couple of days ago because insider trading... oh wait.

prepare for dump 

Been away for a few hours and I see this:



What happened? Bulls retaliated preemptively?

Slovenia is in the Eurozone and adopted Euro as national currency (a choice which arguably creates more problems to the country's balance sheets). BitStamp uses a big European bank. It's not much but it is a lot in bitcoinland.

There are allegedly safer options in Europe e.g. exchanges that are directly tied to banks where a trader has his own account number and IBAN. But Stamp has first mover advantage and it has worked like clockwork so far.
I still have to see a case where a EUR withdrawal from Stamp went wrong and it wasn't due to either hostile receiving bank or user error (so never Stamp's fault).

Now, any theory on why the orderbook of Stamp is gone so shallow? Post bubble-pop depression? Or is it an indirect consequence of Goxscare?

bitcoin-central (comeback since it was hacked long long ago)
bitcoin.de (more of a marketplace but you have your own IBAN)

Breakout early warning...

A foggy cloud around us is threatening thunderstorms. It smells of freedom and misty rain, and it is soaking us wet, slowly and incessantly. 666.66, the infernal joke over and over, like a loop in a time machine. In the distance you can hear the dampened sound of a far away train...