E1ther 1 need g1asses or 1've been see1ng a 1ot of 1's 1ate1y.

SO true, and this month was really boring for trader, nothing happened in whole months,

Just 1 or 2 days where market move somehow.

It looks totally different! Not like China at all! Bitstamp is bouncing around at $580-$582 and China already took off few meters...

I subscribe to this theory as well.  Catalyst to change coming.

Its not private.

4% fee though if I remember correctly.

Tbf the ASICMiner angle does have some credibility to it on first glance.

Yeah for sure, thats why the ASICminer angle has some credibilty, if your bringing petahashes of mining power they wont be charging you as high of a fee.

1% of $100 is better than 4% of $10 (crude example!)

you know something's up when folks in the wall observer thread talks about AM..

the crash might of been a few long closing

but at the same time people are opening new longs...

the " credit bubble " isn't going anywhere. it will only get bigger, much bigger.

also the ridiculous ROI poeple have reported for just lending USD on finex, seems to indicate that the "credit bubble" has much room to grow.

Looking out for a cup and handle pattern to form on the 6h charts (should reach 620 sometime the first 8 days of august)

Could be the beginning of a bubble after that

The people offering USD for swaps are in the btc market.  When the price starts rising consistently, they will move their money into btc, and leverage will dry up on Bitfinex.  That is the main reason most swap offers are 2 days: if the price skyrockets, they don't want to miss out.

Just free market at work here..

ppl dont want to miss out on the bubble so they are loaning or buying on margin.. in advance
(remember you can be in btc or in usd  to loan fiat to buy coins, so it's an potential accumulation of both sides of the pair, which is why it can be much much higher then what we are seeing right now..  there's 10k btc whales out there that can move their coins in and out anytime )

now if the loans are getting to expensive ppl close them..hence the selling . but meanwhile others taking new one's thinking the bubble is just around the corner.

I dont think the loan/lend  market is unhealthy at all..  thats why we are hanging around this price   and the loans can keep on going..  

Now to me the guys lending are taking usd  profits .. probably buying up slowly new coins with them .. at some point the market will have no more coins willing to be sold..  at that time
there will be less coins available (yes i think the ask walls are fake on bfx .. and put there with their usd equivalent without taking loans )   and the bubble can start.
because
a) many ppl had to pay swaps..  and lost fiat or part of their btc holding... .
b) the lenders are buying the coins right now slowly with profits
c) the big ask walls will suddenly go away
d) everybody will suddenly realise how they can't buy the same amount of coins anymore with the fiat they had..before due to lack of asks..  
e) bulls will trapp many bears ..

this is why i just buy and hold.. i lost to many already on this leverage/margin game..
smart money is taking coins and fiat from market.. until market has no choice anymore to just rally up.

i'm a perm bull since 400 so i might be bias .


 

/^^^i predict bounce off 550ish  

I checked the history of the 6h MACD on bitstamp and I can say it's been very loyal lately!!
I really recommend buying now!

Seems like a lot of people here ignore the reality of what MtGox did. They created the price, and guess what? It was inflated for years through manipulation. Sorry.. but the truth is that btc is not worth that much. Over time you guys will see that. I find no joy in saying this, but its true.

Quote from the willy report.

They are already buying on stamp probably... so nothing will change.

And more dumping.
Just keep telling yourself it's "shaking out the weak hands".

From here : 8 million USD in bids to 270.
8 million USD in asks to 700

Yes and some poor guy is now holding my coins. I kinda feel sorry for him.

An awful lot of crying for two bitcoins though. You must be new here

Ready for the next dump everyone? This one will take us to 550.
"Just shaking out the weak hands" of course. Nothing to worry about.

The big boys getting in.
Funny. I've been reading that same sentence for the last 6 months over and over again. They sure take their time, don't they?
I'll quote you next week when we're below 500.
Of course you won't admit there aren't any big boys getting in. Because you're delusional.

I want to have a speaking ShroomsKit cuddle toy. It's so cuuuuuute.

<3

If you were really out, you'd not be here telling everyone how the sky is falling.

It's a bird with the face of a dog. With its tongue hanging out. Obviously.

Edit: and it has horns too.

There appeared to be no evidence of Fowl play involved.

But Owl let you know if I hear anything more.

@pigeondog

When idiots like you sell, whales buy, when idiots like you buy, whales sell, lucky for them there are more idiots than whales.

You are a Hero Member and only have/had 2BTC, what more do I need to say, point proven.

I'm just a newbie,  but I've been watching this forum for bit and have been watching the emotional swings on an hourly basis and just wanted to put something out there.   Now people may laugh at technical analysis as it applies to bitcoin,  but I think it works when there is little mega news like there has been the past month or so.   If you look at Finex (since they are one of the big volume drivers lately)  from June 2nd to July 1st and draw the top resistance line (674 and 654),  and then use June 13 to the 24th to draw your bottom channel line (573 and 567) you will se the short term down trend we are on.  Draw a horizontal line on June 24th and that will show you the 566 resistance line.  If 566 holds we are following a descending triangle and it will bounce between the top resistance slope sline and the horizontal line at 566.  If it breaks 566  then I would expect support to rally around 543.  Now while I'm currently in a short from 630,  I am long on bitcoin in general.  Watch for the chart to break one or both of these patterns over the next few days or weeks,  hopefully it will break one of the resistance lines and we can go long again.

Wow...good post..i agree with your analysis. This downtrend is purely technical..it is the final action after a period of lengthy consolidation rather than the start of a new bear market..it has nothing to do with bitcoin fundamentals..a break down to $540 would be expected now to test support.i do not believe the bottom is in yet as we have not had enough volume of support.  If you are hodling - then i would advise taking a break from the charts - nothing has changed in the long term for bitcoin and its bullish. if you do want to put yourself thru the stress of constant price watching - then learn some TA to help give you a clearer picture of the market.

30%

Nothing to worry about. Only a few dollars. Just some weak hands. We're going to the moon as the new deadline expires. The big boys are getting in. Wallstreet can't wait to get in.

Everyone who invested late last year or early 2014 and has been holding... that bag must be getting pretty heavy at this point. 2014 is going to be the worst year ever for bitcoin. Hopefully 2015 is better, but I rather doubt it.

Can I have a ride in your time machine bro?

Oh boy breaking the current support and re-testing the prev. bottom would be a disaster

Dear Forum,

If you're nervous, you are over-invested.

Sincerely,

vudu "never nervous" chyld

price is low price is going lower, now is the time to sell!

Another worrisome aspect of the blockchain statistics is that the "effective fee" for bitcoin payments is about 4% -- since the mining community earns 4000 BTC/day to process transactions whose estimated output volume (minus changeback) is 100'000 BTC/day.  Since mining is still a substantially free market, the actual cost must be not much below that value. 

Currently users do not pay that 4% fee, because it is paid by all the long-term holders of bitcoins, that lose 4000*365/12'000'000 = 12%/year of their value because of mining inflation.  (And, of course, that loss is more than offset by the price increase due to speculative demand.)  But since that fee will some day become a real transaction fee paid by users, it seems to be a bit too high for a service that is still often touted as "free" or "much cheaper than bank transfers".

But it gets worse if that 100'000 BTC/day blockchain traffic volume is indeed partly "fake" (transactions with no change in ownership).  In the final future when the mining costs will be paid by the users, the fake transactions will disappear and the cost will be borne by the real ones only.  But if 30% (say) of the volume now is fake, the "effective fee" now is not 4% but 4000/(0.70 x 100'000) = 5.7%.  If 50% of the volume is fake, the fee is 8%, and if 90% is fake, it is 40%.  So what is the "effective fee" now, and what will it be in that final future?

Putting on my triple-layer aerodynamic tinfoil hat, I would suspect that the blockchain traffic is being inflated with fake volume by The Powers That Wanna Be, in order to keep that calculation at 4% -- and thus preserve the illusion that bitcon can be a competitive payment method in that distant future.

I saw that, too!

No really, everyone should wait until September until the hedgefonds "officially" start buyin up the market....
It makes no sense at all to buy before them....  


Edit: You know what they say about rumors...

shit i only got 0.1BTC bid filled.

i need way more...

if someone could dump +1K coins that would be gr8 thanks

As usual people don't follow. Just a few buys here and there. Maybe we even break 600 and then it stops. Then the non stop dumping will take us back to 580 in the next 12 hours.
I wish i could get more excited but this is thr most likely scenario.

580$ is history, you won´t see it ever again!

Fonzie you are really confusing me these days...

It´s pretty unusual to go up 100$ in an hour, so everybody relax! Bubble mode is still a few weeks away, but we´re about to climb steadily to 800$ now. If even a bull like Adam hasn´t bought fully back in, imagine how many more seeded buyers are still out there waiting to throw their money in.

That looks like Fonzie getting the bullhorn.

Got your bids filled, Adam?  We backed the train up just so you could hop on.  It's not a fun trip without free beer the whole way.

I predicted 555 last night, and it is headed in that direction, but I have a bad, bad urge to go all in, max margin long.  Can anyone give me rational reason that doesn't start with the Huobi wall?

Impressive depth on Huobi

Currently, one entity is holding the price at Huobi and buying up thousands of coins.  Good or bad for the short term price, one person should not be able to control the entire market.  A higher market cap ensures that most large holders sell the majority of their coins, hopefully to smaller buyers.

I should be able to survive without it for a while but I hope bitcoin will go into a bubble soon and I would buy at about $5k/btc

Almost 100% of my holdings are in bitcoin so I rather not buy when we are at the bottom

I mean I will buy car/computer, not bitcoin

Somebody give me a call when the price moves a few percent?
This is mind numbing.


Does anyone have data on how many coins the Huobi guy has bought?  Over 4,000btc, I am guessing?

The wall is falling.

someone closed 800 BTC worth of shorts on bitfinex

What is this thread coming to, if we have one troll ignoring another troll?   

   Must mean that capitulation has taken place!!!    CHHHHOOOOOOO   CCCCCCCCHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO   MF

929 btc buy wall @ 588 @ bitfinex  

EDIT: Wall is gone now  

EDIT2: Back @ 590

True.

Moreover the attempts of letting bitcoin seem like a pyramid scheme (bulls getting ballistic on 10,00$ rebounds, next year it will value 100,000,000,000,000,000,000$) are causing me headache.

Trolling is Asperin.

That bank change is something rather positive in my view. A step in the right direction.
Why? Because it greatly reduces bitstamps exposure to US regulations.
Any bank (or any other company for that matter) which has a branch in the USA can have its assets there taken "hostage" until full compliance with us law is achieved. Raiffeisen on the other hand does not have a branch there and is an "old player" with a very good standing in europe and especially the east.
Already now you would choose Raiffeisen if you for instance wanted to trade with partners in any country which is under US sanctions.
Apart from that Raiffeisen practically "owns" Austria

Bitstamp aka bearstamp aka manipulation central seems to be the only exchange without huge bid walls.

Go figure.

Somebody should get the "it's unhappening" and "bloodbath" memes prepared for the next 24-hours. Book it. S--- is about to get real, real.

Mid-September will be phenomenal, though. Next 24 hours, though, I call bloodbath.

A three year banking relationship cut off over night with no news, no press release, no explanation, and in the wake of sputtering bids on the major exchange for the West. Ummm, sure, nothing big going on there. Jesus.

So, to recap:

Things going well:
(1) Major retailer adoptions;
(2) Some goof buying a ton of coins for more than he needs to on Huobi;
(3) ETFs galore coming to town soon;
(4) Chinese leveraging about to get really f---ing ridiculous (which is good for at least an initial spike)

Things not going well:
(1) Bitstamp, and Coinbase by association, just got really flaky really quickly with at least (and probably only) a temporary gap in liquidity should a true crisis ensue resulting;
(2) NY and Russian FUD fest;
(3) BTC-e's insurance on shorts are run identical to the NYSE in 1987;
(4) Bitfinex... lololololololololololololol

Summary of Expectations:
(1) Probably a slow and steady upward tick; BUT
(2) The exchanges seem to be more vulnerable to an outside shock than they've been in past years.

So, you'll either make a very modest amount in the next couple of weeks (speeding up to a rocket launch by mid-September) OR you will lose everything. Ummm, back to the f---ing sidelines I go.

Well, making bold predictions spices things up if nothing else. I am 99% certain I haven't the slightest clue what I am talking about, but I've been right a lot lately which has been surprising even me. We'll definitely chat on it in 48. I'll prepare to take crow if I am wrong... prepare the gauntlet.

A generally bullish sentiment means we're probably going down.

stamp dump at 10:03 utc huobi following up

Just get over it! Let the damn price do its thing and go up! It won't make you poorer or anything.

I like just looking at this thread every other week or something, but when I do that I tend to miss the last few hundred pages.

this is what is happening .. and if you are a bull you should be happy about it.

put walls on important points fibs or psychological  round numbers..  or at tops .. like 680 was a a good point.. since market was rallied out..    
others will put asks infront of you..   and with price going down .. others will add asksk..

this way ppl  who want to buy in "cheap" (anything below 600 is cheap).. can..    
 because we gonne test ath anyways.. so doubling investment  is as good as sure.

now big players are slowly buying in.    with as good as no slippage..  
once the market is ready to go up ..  and  it will at some point..
suddenly you'll be looking at thin ask side on orderbook and only nice ask sharkwalls in higher prices.. which attract them buyers..    the sharkwalls are the  whales slowly selling up ... they gonne push up as hard they can so they can keep on selling higher and higher..  

it's all about waiting, and waiting and waiting..  and don't lose coins trying to trade..

at this point.. i only buy new coins..  dont care  much about the price..  aslong it's below 600.

Yeah, its looking good.

That unfortunately is true, I feel that I have become more cynical with time.  Not because of this thread, I think, but of other threads I have been reading.   Some of them are beyond crazy, totally surreal.   

For example, reading the threads about Butterfly Labs, AMT, and other mining rig scams, I could not understand why the victims kept asking and pleading and discussing with the companies for almost a year, still accepting their phony explanations, promises, deals, upgrades -- even sending them more money.  Those clients must know that the CEO of one of those companies was convicted, not long ago, of running an international lottery scam that stole 25 million from old pensioners and such.  Being told so, a sane client should have stopped wasting time and gone straight to the police to file charges for fraud.  Why did their clients instead keep asking, whining, pleading, insulting, sometimes even praising the scammers?

Then I had an epiphany (what a swell word, must use it more often!  ): that is the way drug addicts interact with drug dealers who failed them.  They know that the merchant is a criminal and what he did to them was fraud.  But they of course won't go to the police, and know that he is the boss so their only hope is to convince him to deliver.  When they finally get some product from him, even if it is late, junk, and much less than they paid for, they will be thankful and forget the damage and come back the next day for more, nice and smiling.

Could it be that buying illegal drugs was the only non-trivial "business experience" that those clients had in their life?

2days price rebound +9.29%

I am betting on a low of 498.  Someone will dump to to 500.
495 would take too much work: after breaking through 1k coins to 500, they need another 1k to get to 495.
Unlikely.  
The question is whether we bounce or sit around 500 until tomorrow.

This no volume trickle up is meaningless. The inverted head and shoulders reversal pattern didn't pan out.  Is there even enough cash on the exchanges to to push us up to $600? I think we're going to have to wait some more.  Still, I can't imagine the bears have much ammo left after shorting for nine months.

3k coins to 520 on bitfinex versus 1.6k on bitstamp to 520

monkey flipped to bullish on the daily.  like i even care.

400's again for some seconds when I was out, but still close to no volume.

And seriously ppl posting rocket pictures at this situation?

Not at all sure but hoping I can get trade and depth data to have a look at later. Looks like one bot fighting its self starting out with about 300 coins and down to about 150 now, the rest went in fees. Those flat base lines are a little confusing though, if it was a fight between bots then one of them is buying high and selling low and the other is creaming those losses and pushing up to negate its own fee losses. If it spreads to other exchanges then someone has figured out how to cream the whale responsible for the dumps through the trendlines, if so good luck to them.

Exactly, good news has been priced in long time ago. If not then the market acts in a unique and irrational way.

Woot it is a sign since that is a good lag indicator
To the moon ^_^

I have owned a 386

You really think the euro will take on us dollar? rofl. UK's pound is doing much better than the euro or the dollar anyway. Who is coming along in the euro zone in 2015 again? Romania, Lituania & Bulgaria. Wonderful.

Boom! 1024 coin ask wall at 480 on Bfx slams down.
Asks went from 60 to 1360 in 5 seconds.

And why would that be? You probably would have said the same in 2011 about $4.

+1
Anyone has any comments about the volume?

~94% drawdown in 2011.

Shorts are decreasing as price is decreasing.
The dumps are real panic sellers.

Not even a short squeeze can save us right now.

Market hasn't been so overbought for 3 months, so there's not much room left.

money moving towards alts is getting less:

Up Up all buy 

If the funds are held in a FDIC insured institution they are insured by the FDIC up to 250k. I already spoke to one of their customer service reps to clarify.

Personally I think that Coinbase pump and dump removed a significant amount of confidence and trust that was being slowly rebuilt. Lotta people got burnt AGAIN by obvious insider trading

OKCoin is still sitting with 14,000 futures contracts they need to liquidate at $275 and above ...

Their insurance fund is now annihilated and traders there will be taking a significant haircut this week on their gains unless we get above that level by Friday morning

Anyone who buys futures there today or tomorrow has a high chance of buying into a guaranteed socialised loss

Very likely  now sub 200

Bears in full control now

Gotta say, Whoazzza!!!

derp less than 10% drop...  

was that all you can do bear... really ?

With the current order book it would take approximately 3.1million to reach $300 on bitfinex and that is without any surprises. 

51% attacks will never happen again. They would be too expensive, and it would kill the income of the big mining pool owners.

This guy makes good points (read the other posts also):



https://twitter.com/patio11/status/583697371378257920





Basically, bitcoiners don't know how remittances actually work.

Sorry, I didn't notice that this news was posted and discussed earlier today. 

In which direction is the storm going to go?

The only reason I can see is a good arbitrage opportunity 

Can I short it? Nothing against Leocoin, but I only short - I short all kind of things, always. If I can't short a thing it doesn't make me happy 

SO, hypothetically;

There could be a premium for having funds invested in a licensed OTC Market. You don't have to deal with securing your coins yet you still are screwed if the trusts coins get taken... I guess it could be more palatable to investors to understand how their funds were invested. (In the GBTC units not in some shadowy exchange). I'm assuming there could also be some sort of tax benefits for investment avenues, ira's/roths/etc? But ultimately, coins could be so much cheaper bought on the open market. Is there really enough of a premium to be getting shares in the GBTC vs some thing like coinbase?

I think we will go sideways until Bitlicense is implemented and then all hell will break free. NY Ip's all get banned; DHS seizes Btc-e and Cryptsy. Then Wallstreet rolls in with their licensed ivory towers and gated communities. /Popcorn. Am I overestimating the possible impact of NY regulations? I just see it as both a significant impediment and tipping point. Thoughts?

Please tell me what you think schould be improved on Bitcoin ?...  I understood that Bitcoin is semi-anonymous, but really after using Bitcoins for 2 years now, I see how easy it is to make new wallets and transfer around the bitcoins, so no one would ever be able to track anything from those transactions??? Even if they wanted, its almost impossible to prove anything.

To me the most likely scenario would be a coin tied to a must-have app. Whether it lived much beyond that particular app is another matter though.

Sorry, I had to make one more comment on Leo

LeoCoin is a joke. I have to say I only spend a short time on reading about it, but everything smell about LeoCoin...

The 2 promoters, are former scammers in a pyramid-scheme... The website does not explain much about the improvements, its still not clear to me... and they reward people using the coin in an pyramid-like-scheme... Maybe they use an anonymity function that is 100%?? but still the coin smell of fraud! Sorry to say...

Hmm, not panicky enough. Need a proper dump to 230 at least to force sub 300 CAD.

Support at 240-245 range seems substantial, but not insurmountable.

Keep selling! You can do it! To the floor!

What's that WannabeCoin you talking about?

let's trap even more noobs & day traders here!


(going to 270 is CONFIRMED)

Don't be silly.

He/she hasn't got any money invested in anything.

bitcoin can't succeed

Hey, just because you Bitcoiners are lax with security, act like douchebags & go to prison (Charlie Sherm, ex Vice Chairman of now-bankrupt Bitcoin Foundation), doesn't mean that normal people do.  We don't flash bills whenever some interweb Anon dares us to.
Grow up!

LEOCoin, like Bitcoin, is about protecting our constitutional privacy.
Unlike Bitcoin, LEOCoin privacy works.

Most old members are bit poor, cash rich by now. It's the way of the world. They couldn't care less for the most part

Well, I anticipated this dump for days but it is way more mild than I expected.
I was looking for coins below $230 by now already, which probably will not even happen next week.

@Empowering

Is this the doom you were looking for?

Long term yes
Short term no

No shorts bothered covering which is a hint

So, bears are killing the opportunity for the value to rise, is it???

Ohk, then some mid-level whales are in the game setting the walls to get the coins cheaper...
But this still doesn't seem to be ending soon, it seems it might get more dumped...

Perhaps, but back in the bear market it only took 2-5k to initiate much bigger drops.

Good morning Bitcoinland. We finally got a little movement, I see.

$10 isn't much of a dip to buy on but I suppose it's better than no dip at all so I'm glad I was up really early today and had a chance to rush down and buy a few more coins while the price was down.

By the time I got home the skid had slowed and the price had actually risen a couple of bucks. Lucky timing I guess.

How long now before we're back up over $250 or do we finally break below $240 after a week of failed attempts?

In lieu of popcorn I'll just have to make do with Mocha-Java. Mmmm.

Any bets on how long 240 is breached?

I'll go with 3-4 hours

i'm buying here... you bears are nuts.

the fun part about the alts is ... they're all priced in btc ... so if btc ultimately fails / severely loses value , so does every single alt coin ...

A good trader is a trader that minimises and controls their bank and their risk, and manages on a consistent basis to make more gains than losses.

As he sits on a million BTC instead of cashing out at any point.  Yeah, well thought out proposition you've made there.

yeah ... difference is ... that cash actually exists ... and won't be spent on btc ... and no sane billionaire would ever touch this joke market (we can always hope for an insane billionaire though )... what we need is an exchange to spend a couple billion dollars that *doesn't come from anywhere* that they just assign to their own exchange books out of nowhere ... yknow ... like mtgox did to bring us from $20 to $1200 ...

satoshi is either dead , locked up in a mental institution / jail / someone's basement , or so ashamed of what btc has become that he's voluntarily living in exile , or yknow ... doesn't exist at all and is just part of the sham from the get-go for the purpose of creating a heroic pseudoreligious mythos / those coins are the last step of the scam / being held onto just in case we actually reach some beyond beyond beyond nuts valuation ...

Bu-friggin-hu!!! We wave the white flag now. Can we get this mofo confirmed so we can get on with the bull market, please?

i read a thread with compelling reasoning that all 1M coins are in fact lost forever

I pretty much share the same short-term view.

Here's DanV's newest projection.

BEWARE: DanV is very good with downtrend predictions/bottoms/lows etc., but he's not good with predictions about UP. This is typical attribute about Elliott's waves analysis that is easier to use EW to dips than ups. I don't know if this is unique feature for EW and Btc but I can see this from long time. Maybe it's just because analysis in general is easier in downtrend than in uptrend, who knows.

No. If you understand what he has written on TV, and the chart labelling, he is opening up to the possibility that we are still in a corrective move from the $166 low. See his green line to $360, labelled [C] - that would mark the end of the correction (from $166) and resumption of the downtrend to new lows at $xx(x?). IDK if this significantly alters his downside target, but it would certainly drag this bear market out several months longer than his previous count, which had us starting the move to new lows from $300 a month ago. Pick your poison ...

EW counts evolve with price action. To him this current action does not fit well with his previously published chart, so he is publishing a new one, as any sensible analyst would do.
Remember - the best EW analysts have multiple counts running in parallel at any one time. It is only by excluding those that are invalidated and focussing on those with the higher probabilities (according to EW rules) that they stay on track. But they will keep an eye on alt-counts in order to switch if the primary count is invalidated/looks less probable.


Here is the link to the chart with his commentary:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/EUytkasj-BTCUSD-FURTHER-SHORT-TERM-WEAKNESS-IN-STORE-WITH-OF-TARGET-210/

Then we get the crayons out and draw some new ones 

I doubt that the breaking down would stop at 210$. Once 4h and 6h MACD divergence would turn negative, IMO large dumps would break the key 210$ support level.
So if the market will go up to 300+, it has to start pumping soon, without any major drops before.

Gox Btc were distributed long time ago = BULLISH

http://www.coindesk.com/most-mt-gox-bitcoins-were-gone-by-may-2013-report-claims/

I just read the Coindesk article about 21. Not convinced. I don't think the 21 guy knows what he's talking about. It might fall flat on its face.

Indeed. It seems like a fractal of the first bearish channel. My take one month ago was stability around 255 +/-30(40) for at least 2 month. We are at the lower edge for some days now. I think we will see 260-270 very soon. With the effect, that bulls will come out with arrognace. (Like there is no tomorrow and a bubble is immanent). I think this is the time for another down-turn to ~230. After that, my picture becomes unclear.

i guess there's an chicken-egg problem. bears wont turn bulls without an trend-reversal that only can be caused by a certain amount of bulls. we need an external impulse (what's up with that etf thing anyway) to spark a rally.

the only reason i'm still optimistic is all the vc money thrown into bitcoin which is already nearing btc's market cap. I doubt these guys will let their investment go. 1M dollar would be enough to squeeze half of the shorts away.

I don't believe in TA's but things are not necessarily bearish in my opinion. As predicted earlier in this thread May's the time. Not long before we see some real action; bears are running out of time...

Are refunds being made in BTC or USD? Haven't been following the Gox thing lately.

is that mean that kraken will buy a lot of coin to pay back gox's customer

omg... omg... bear quick buy back your coin before its too late  

That is just a survey for now. If and when Kobayashi is ready to distribute the spoils, he may ask for real whether you want BTC or JPY; but he does not know yet whether that will be possible.  That's what I got from the FAQ he posted.

Are the addresses of the 200k Gox coins to be distributed known? Is it possible that some have already been liquidated?

This will require the claim process to be over (Sept. 9) and then the people involved will judge which are eligible to receive funds and which are not. The official word from the Kraken CEO on reddit though specifies that no more than 20% should be expected (fiat & BTC). Better from nothing, but still...

to test weak hand before real pump, if there is a new pump im sure btc price can reach ath

Don't think it was an exchange.
Those were 70000 coins which were idle for almost 2 years.
Equals around 70000 * 2 * 365 = 51100000

Explains the days destroyed exactly

This is going to play out worse than I thought.

Each rebound is weaker from each dump

Massive support at 218-200, good time to buy if you still got fiat.. Also a Grexit is getting more and more likely, if this will happen it would be a big boost for Bitcoin.

Well I woke up this morning and saw it's back up at 219.

Guess I should have bought before I went to bed...

What do ya'll think?  I sold at 221.

crazy poll says: 50/50 split over a price expectation above 300 and below 180... I guess people expect some fireworks.

They could default on their greek government debts, drop out of the eurozone but amend their legal tender laws to allow any currency, including euros, to circulate freely and be used by anyone. That would be their most sane course of action, so it will not happen.

BTC-e still seams to be acting out of character...  if it was one hacked account, you would not expect it to last this long.  And if all accounts where compromised the exchange would be offline by now.  Without doubt there is legit stronger buy support on BTC-e than on any other exchange.  Don't know why though.

Putin is Buying, Shorters are going to get Fucked..   

They are desperate to get out, must have some inside knowledge.
The withdrawn coins will probably be distributed and slightly increase asks / seller pressure on other exchanges.

Crypto will not just be adopted by Russia.  Ever nation wants it.  Till one day it is mandatory, unfortunately...

Any info on BTC-e solvency?

BTC-e has always been a deeply weird place. Flash crashes and total laggardness when others were exploding. It would be a shame if it was in its death throes. I really thought it would still be ticking away long after all the other old guard had turned to dust.

Yeh, crazy action, other exchanges not following ... something ain't right  

Sure, but it's only been 4 years though.. it's not like they are an old timer in any sense of time. In bitcoin history sure, but still its just a few years.

Never considered the illicit activity angle but if someone need a few million dollars in BTC for such an activity. BTC-E seems like the only option and it certainly would produce the crazy charts we are seeing today.


Or the exchange is dying.

I almost placed a 3x leveraged short at 229$, but was too lazy to press the margin sell button.
Thought I had time until tomorrow to reach 229$, but now I'll have to wait a bit and see how this situation develops.

it's like 220% i'd hope your credit cards are lower..

not that i expect them to keep these coins borrowed for the full 30 days but i've been surprised before

Great rise but looks very fishy. Maybe big fraud with stolen $ at btc-e? Some big whale account hacked etc.?
I wish we'll know the reason of this rocket:-D

This is awsome. They launch may 18.th.

It's an Exchange Traded Note.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etn.asp

So I think value depends on the credibility of the body who issued it. You're buying the promise of a coin from a third party.

This sounds plausible to me.  I would say that a stagnant usage for e-payments is quite good given the >1 year bear market (with the resulting decrease of new blood). 

What's the rational thing to do when the value of a currency is falling?
That's right, *spend it*. As fast as you can.
The fact that there isn't a spike in bitcoin payments only highlights the irrationality of bitcoiners

Attempt to determine how much of the raw blockchain transaction volume is gambling, how much is spam, how much is e-payments, etc.

Good luck!

When does GBTC go live?

I would be surprised if nobody decided to reshuffle their portfolio after the year that has passed

No, it's already green-lighted in terms of cusip and on the exchanges. There are no sellers so there is no activity. You can't make a trade if there isn't a counterparty offering the other side of it.

I've become resigned to the fact that the market has grown significantly from the "good old days".

I expect that there will not be any more run away moves like in the past.

Sideways until sometime in 2016 I suspect...

I'd be pleasantly surprised to be proven wrong.

It looked to me that lots of longs started closing at once (and maybe a few shorts opened too), thinking that GBTC wasn't going to start trading today.

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still around $240 I see. No appreciable dip to buy on and no rise to celebrate (yet).

Just another flat-line Monday.

Ho hum. Coffee please...

And the $42s are cleared off the books with another 259 shares. $200 on the ask, lmfao.

What's up with the 2k btc buy wall at $240 on stamp?

It is not insane... it is a speculation. What if those are actually the cheapest shares? Many bought btc at 800$+ 

Just posting what real-time trades are happening. There is something appealing about stashing BTC in some form or another in a tax-deferred vehicle, even with a premium.

I think it's likely the price of shares and coins will approach each other. But with $140 of ground to cover, that's a nice ride.

That sounds plausible. Especially if BTC finds real usage in clearance and settlements.

Lets see what happens.

Either bitcoin is very underpriced or GBTC users are happy to pay a heavy premium.

Dumping into the opening on a Chinese exchange shows the degree of desperation from bears - yes you will have to cover your positions

It hasn't.

Surprised we havent seen some big market buys tbh.

1500 coins? Stamp is on life support tbh.

Very low volume on GBTC, but its somewhat of a relief that they havent dumped down below the regular exchanges (yet?)

So if anyone is trying to arbitrage this price we would see him buying it back only by the end of the week.