This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:

• the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
• there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)

I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.

IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.

The google thing isn't all that surprising. People saw the price drop and lost their excitement. It'll come back eventually and many will have missed the train.

In the blink of an eye and then get really scared when you find out you just sold at $50 and the bids don't nudge.

200 million dollars were spent on buying at $50-$100, that's about enough confidence I will need, and bears don't have a magic infinitely deep pocket, there are only so many bitcoins for sale.

I am fairly convinced that the causality is the opposite of what you describe. Sure, price and number of Google searches are correlated but correlation does not imply causation. It is rising prices that drive interest, not the other way around.

If you are cautious, then I suspect you will not panic so easily and sell on a slight change of the wind direction, right? While smart investors usually initiate a crash, it has to be the panic sellers who execute them, no crash can happen without panic sellers, and they hardly buy back cheaper, else everybody will be a winner, so when they sold out they are out. I think even if the price moves down this time, it will be considerably less violent. The next panic sell will have to wait until after another crazy buying spree when irrational buyers put in what they can't afford to lose.

Another thing is: the crash was only so crazy thanks to the characteristics of Bitcoin itself:the whole global stock can be moved to the exchanges for sale in a matter of hours, which is unprecedented, so bears won the first move, but after they get their fiats they will have to deal with the reality of the banking system:you can only move so much in a day, so what will happen when they wait impatiently while watching the price slowly rebounds? Hmmm....

It's not just the problem of Gox, every bank wants to restrict you when it comes to withdrawal of money, they usually only keep the minimum amount of reserve required so it will always be a PITA.

Also, the google chart really has searches falling back to end of March, early April levels which really isn't all the bad. It is vastly higher than it has been any other time than June 2011. 

I see what you did there - sold 700 coins at 147, and getting itchy about the buyback point not coming yet.

To bail out or not to bail out; that is the question.

Hint: do not bail out, it will crash to the prev. resistance, now support at $130-$135, I am 75% we get there in 24 hours. Relax and let the swing play out.

Your reliance on the google trend for useful information will not serve you well.

Short the shit out of this false breakout dudes like a boss! Dont be sheep, sell like a man.

Disclosure: Sold BTC772 at $153.

bids dropping - asks dropping faster
could so. explain what this means?

it will go up again...  and if this guy sees price goes up.. he might wanne buy in again or  at least some part of it..
160+ seems possible..

then again.. this is bitcoin! got a stop order way below just in case   
but i have faith in our us friends for now.

cavirtex has that.

I've turned from short term bear to short term bull, the constant price gains set a mood of regaining confidence, generating buying spree  and hysteria to hop in the bandwagon until the next bubble burst. $200 here we come!

According to the mtgox walls, 23 Million USD takes us to a BTC valuation over $1000.  Not a lot of money in the whole scheme of things.

If he is smart enough to invent bitcoins, he is smart enough to sell responsibly. I believe.

He's already rich. When he needs fiat for something, he can sell some BTC. If what he wants can be paid for with BTC, he doesn't need to sell them at all.

Talk of cashing out is, once again, just a failure of the imagination.

any link for satoshi's address?

What are his addresses for you to make such affirmations?
since the april 11 crash,there's a regular 3-5k sell order practically everyday,i would believe its satoshi..

With google and paypal looking to get in...

some dumps are needed for that, it's still about same number of coins needed for 145 and 165

How do you know the crash was caused by someone dumping 69k coins at market? Is this a verifiable fact or speculation on your part?

If speculation, why do you believe someone did this?

I don't understand who in their right mind would do such thing?

I mean it's a very poor way to sell a position so large, right? Since you will get serious slippage?

I'm sorry but I can't find this on bitcoincharts or clarkmoody. Could you give me more details how to find this transaction? A link would be greatly appreciated.

The crash/correction was trigger by some gradual downward selling that caused severe lag that in turn caused panic/lag selling. By the time we'd fallen from 266 to 220, there was like 40 minutes of lag and two or so hours had passed since the downward pressure began. While watching live I saw thousands upon thousands of sell orders go through. It wasn't a single 69k order from above 200 that sent us down, it would have taken us down instantly, not gradually over three hours as you can see in the chart below.

There is no 69k single order of coins sold on this chart:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-04-10zeg2013-04-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

This was just GOX trying to rescue price

It dont matter for me im full of cash right now Dont care if it will be single or double digits. It will fall

Well now you know what $2M panicking looks like.

You should love them a lot when a price will be 30.

don't beat yourself up about missed profits.  if we could read the future, we'd all be rich

please dump more coins... i didn't get my fair share...

I might be wrong and been many times but this definitely doesn't look like something that has serious support to go up and stay there. 120-130 (if not lower) looks much, much more realistic than above. You can smell the fear on the market.

And your definition for "black" goes something like...

...it crashes through rpietila's support line of $115, goes all the way to $95, enabling rpietila to invest the proceeds of last week's OTC trades (about 700 grams of gold, 22 kg of silver, EUR 28k cash, 60k bank money) with 30% better exchange rate that he would otherwise get, and bounces back to barely above $110, closing the month with a +15% green candle.

Black indeed. I'm looking forward to it..  

I'm still bullish. I also have already covered most of what I sold from a local guy who had been begging me to buy for a week now.

I'm going to lose some money on this deal but I wanted to call his bluff if it is one. If it is not a bluff and he can move 100k USD at the drop of a hat then respect.

Time will tell.

Right, because when kiddie porn was first put onto the internet, everyone freaked out and stopped using the internet.




Please, if you're going to FUD at least have the decency to do it well.

I think we go down to $120 again now.

I'm a whale.  What do I do next?   

My voice instructor actually visited the hotel last weekend, but we did not have opportunity to practice. She bought some bitcoins though

It seems to be going up or down.

1 small dump and it's pure panic...
Unbelievable...

Exactly how long do people want this to go on?
Don't you want the coin to grow? You know people will get tired of it sooner or later.
Big sell, drop, buy, big sell, drop, buy...
At what point will people stop saying i wish it would go back to 30?

I totally see where you're coming from but imo this is not good for the coin. I think it needs some more growth and not these constant crashes. But that's just my opinion ofcourse.

I hear you and agree. Totally. (only trade to try to get more BTC).

However a high valuation in terms of fiat is a sign that the world is starting to take bitcoin seriously as money.

I don't think it's a DDOS...

It seems to be going up or down.

I pay 2:1 that it is up.

I bought BFL ASICs when BTC was $6, figuring that it may double through the halving, and then with great luck be maybe $20 or $25 by now.   I may be slightly upset if I had paid BTC, but at the time there was less risk in mining then holding, IMO.   For me, above $100 is pure heaven, if I in fact ever receive my miners . . .

Deficiency exists only in those who ridicule others.

I needed to investigate the gif, the guy is still alive - he will never walk again, but he is alive.

I read this as a "please, don't let 120 fall"
Not as in "easy money if you buy at 120"

The truth is that the media mania period expired and we are going down for some time. I personally don't think that 120 will hold. Long term bullish, medium term bear.

I honestly don't understand why the price is falling today. Nothing but great news coming out for the past week. There are a lot of very rich folks with lots invested in Bitcoin and Bitcoin-companies that are going to be building out the infrastructure something fierce over the next year.

good buying opportunity today, rockets taking off tonight or tomorrow

but watch out for that red hot 120$ end of week sales could drop us down under 100 for a little while

oh boy would that be fun  

gulp

LOL uh no. That's like saying if someone with a giant cock pulls it out that the world 100 miles away will start feeling like turning into a vagina.

Sorry WALLS MEAN NOTHING.  

If the Bitcoin protocol goes beyond repair, we will develop a new coin, and the party will continue. I go to have a bath in the spa and then some dinner, see you in 2 hours!

I'm not taking rpietila's offer because I think I'm comfortable as is, without needing to leverage. I have about 80 dollars on MtGox per every BTC I have (including everything I have in cold storage). If the price goes up, my Bitcoins rise in value. If the price goes down, I have an opportunity to purchase more bitcoins at a reduced price.

Isn't this the place to use all of your verbal wit to talk the price up?

Dont worry ...


lol

Well to be honest, arepo couldn't have predicted the events that unfolded after he made his prediction. BitcoinATM, Silk Road, Mt.Gox lawsuit, all those things had a pretty negative impact on the price I believe.

Let's stop talking about Monday though. What about the weekend? Will the price stay stable in the 90s? Do you guys think I can savely go to bed now and still sell my Bitcoins I acquired @$83 tommorow? I'm feeling very tingly...

I don't mind arepo, he looks like a nice guy so it's absolutely nothing personal (like I have with rpietila), I just think he is overvaluing himself and his chart reading. And posts with some authority tune that I don't find deserved. Anyone who made moves based on his chart reading in last 10 days got burned heavily if didn't react on events.

I wish we could go back to discussing charts and stuff.

proof

thanks, i wasn't gonna feed the troll.

I'm watching his posts a bit longer than that, he said that when it was obvious that fail is imminent after first big sell offs, I don't need charts analysis to figure that out. He was far contrary to that hours before the sell off, then talked about 120-160 range (really?) until he became bearish when anyone with half brain could see bearish time is coming.

He definitely knows more TA phrases than I am, he knows to read them better than I do but TA means crap all in bitcoin short trading (and he is trying exactly that - to predict short term moves) so he fails as miserably as any of us who don't spend hours studying fibonaccis and other ta bull  

The single guy I take remarks from TA gang is lucif. He is also not accurate in short term stuff but he is usually not trying to do that, he gives more general predictions and is on spot most of time while not trying to please the masses and give them what they want to hear.

Who is going to test $80? There are no more sellers left. The price has not stayed still for more than an hour for the past 3 days at least. There had been a constant selling pressure. There has been no selling pressure since 8 hours ago. To me it seems that there are no sellers left.

why you sad

pretty soon people will be all like "damn i KNEW i should've bought under 100"

The wall did the stuff for now, it's a fair sized one so it's not easy one to break so people are thinking "I'm going to wait to see how will this go". It might even work, who knows but it definitely saved the price to not crash again for now..

The 10-30% weekly increase in adoption (weekly % growth of the # of bitcoin users), will turn this discussion completely ridiculous before the end of this month:
January: 10, February: 20, March: 40, April: 80, May: 160, ... December 20480.
Even the above contains more valuable advice than most said in this thread, although it is public knowledge that this kind of behaviour cannot just increase exponentially. It will go parabolic, crash, and repeat. Not only I believe it will go to $1M this year, I have not heard very many good arguments from anyone, what can hinder it  

Considering that we by and large visited the 3rd fibonacci of $78 (never judge with more than 1-2% precision, this is not voodoo after all but real world, it is close enough - I should have known from the first visit to 91 that 95 will not hold, it is too far), the upmove will just be commensurately violent.

At $50 we saw 4th order fibonabbi retracement double(intraday:triple/quadruple) bottom megamove finalcapitulation (akin to 100 megaton fusion charge). As a result, we rallied 50->167 (234%) in 8 days. Now that is 0.64% per hour, compared to the 0.08% exponential trendline it is 8 times faster rate of appreciation.

The sorry state of mankind is truly manifest in its lack of understanding the exponential function. You do not even regard 0.30% per hour as fast when measured in hourly scale (on the contrary, 1 dollar per 3 hours is considered "bitcoin is dead" in these forums).

By being dead continuously for 2673 hours, bitcoin will reach $300k USD by...

...Christmas, this year?  

No. August, 22.  

Granted, the dealer network and some other stuff will have to begin operating, but the good thing is they will, regardless of what you and I do. Even the dealer network fixing excelsheet I already have, and use it for mathematically heavier calculations than "just" stabilizing the price and flows of bitcoin worldwide, which is pretty easy really. The heaviest part is to write enough on this forum, to convince at least 10 other dealers, which I believe are pretty much convinced already, or will be after the I Supernode Summit.

Yesterday alone, I talked to two people more knowledgeable than me. I am just a messenger, like I said when I started posting in a serious way about 30 days ago.

If someone buys bitcoins in May, 2013, he will be rich. In December, he will be poor. The fair value will be crossed somewhere in between.

ADD:
Visual aid: "Bitcoin is dead in between $90 and $100 now." (zoom to 12h).

Only about 1.5 million bitcoins in speculative (fiat-denominated) hands now. All the rest are owned by the likes of me, I am not selling any bitcoins below the long term realistic value of $300k/BTC (except in anticipation of a correction and purchase of more bitcoins).

When I finish my current spree of public talking and start making money full-time, I think I can generate at least BTC100 every day just as profits. The other supernodes will do the same, and:

- first we will be able to absorb the new supply of BTC3600 per day, and
- then start to eat up the remaining 1.5M coins that is currently in the exchanges.
- Also I will be able to sell a minimum of BTC1000 per day to my strong hand clients every day starting about 2 weeks from now.

The endgame will be rather quick. Everybody who buys even 1,000mBTC now, will be a millionaire before Christmas. I will post more proof in the following weeks. Now I go to plan the conference, that will be the place to decide the practical matters how this will be accomplished.

I don't mean to be rude but I can't help getting the impression you're being wildly overconfident in your predictions and seem to me to be just plain dismissing contrary evidence.

Do you try to seek out the best evidence that's contrary to what you already believe? If not, I'm not saying events won't happen similar to how you describe it, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone not quite as good with money and PR but a lot less apparently prone to cognitive biases appears out of nowhere and eats your lunch.

haha seriously? quote?

Sheesh 13 BTC proves nothing, i say if he really has that much money, send me 1000 BTC and i will believe. Since im German, you can trust me and i will send the BTC back for sure. What do you say ? 

He did send me 2.65 Million Baht (about 92,000 USD)

He is new here and has some things to learn about our culture but clearly he has powder.

Edit: He is also super bullish on the price, but he is not wrong "yet". Time will tell.

You guys should show him a little more respect, he is a supernode after all.

Well, you see guys - there are two rpietilas.

One who knew about bitcoin since Satoshi started coding it (he said something not far away from this line though of course I am exaggerating ), one who is ultra mofo supernode and etc. etc..

There is another one who on his own bitcoin selling site claims he opened MtGox account in September 2012, one who joined Bitcointalk (I guess this forum is place you find yourself on 4 minutes after you hear there is some thing called Bitcoin) in December 2012, and who started selling Bitcoins on his site in January 2013. One who advice his clients that they should not invest more than 100k EUR and not invest what they can't lose - quite different from man who is so sure our coins will be worth 300k at least til Christmas. But it doesn't cost him nothing to write that bullshit here, it could cost him a lot of reputation where it's important for him if some idiot would invest all he has after his advice.

It's not an issue how many coins and powder he has nor it is something I remotely care about, the issue is that he is pretty late adopter who had money to invest a lot in bitcoins and it's now doing all he can to present himself as Bitcoin pioneer, ultrasupernode etc etc so he could be accepter in big boys group and profit from it.

Just look what his main ideas are - supernode conference and dealer network. You really think his dealer network plan is to stabilize the price? Lol.. he is just not big fish enough to move the market as he would wanted to as he has nowhwere near enough coins for that, his real aim is to try to infiltrate himself in those circles that have enough power to do that (move markets) so he can protect his investment and profit form market moves (by having a prior knowledge of planned manipulations).

He is acting as no-brain junky rambling all kind of crap here but he is not stupid guy. He would never be noticed without all bullshit he wrote, he is seriously dangerous manipulator and only thing I hope is that those big boys he is targeting won't fail on all his crap though I'm not sure there is much hope for that, there are lot of cocks in bitcoin community and one big dick joining them would be a logic route.

Wow 1,500 btc on 103 already. What was resistance has become support.

Have we ever gone up during a weekend? I've only seen downwards for the past month at least.

Ah yes, I see now :

really? begging for money? you?

There's no more than 2k btc to 110 now.

I find it quite interesting that we went up so fast to 107 and the selling pressure seems so lacklustre as it only brought us down to 105.

I think we got a rocket on fire.

Yea but why? I still can't find a reason to buy...
I guess i will wait a few days, whatever happens...

i was looking for low 70s :/

I was even hoping for 60s after yesterday. I really hate to miss the bottom.

That CCTV report is totally someone within the CCP who has a large position in BTC running a pump and dump. Taking anything that comes out of a totalitarian regime's propaganda ministry with anything less than a huge, huge grain of salt is a major mistake.

This. Do not speculate. No-one can predict short term price fluctuations. Everyone that claims he has that skill is either lying or mentally ill

Damn, I was almost there!   If rontus had been working (fortunately he only works about 50 hours of 168 per week, and generally not on Saturdays, and even of his working time, I only give him authority to sell short about 30% of the time, so this is purely of theoretical interest now) he would certainly have smelled the trend change and managed to sell about BTC430 at an average price of $113.2. Then I would have told him to buy back at $103 (he is better in selling but my buyback levels are more spot on).

The 42,500mBTC profit would have enabled our lifestyle for several days...


Indeed we are. There are only so many bitcoins in the world, and a lowest class supernode is not a U.S. Administration of 100,000 skilled professionals, but an ordinary bloke who bought in any time before March 2013, and has some spare time, and knowledge of English, maths and history. Of course when we go up the ladder, there will be many rpietilas, and in the higher level Goat, MP and Winklewii.

Read the "supernode OP" for more info and comment where appropriate!


Why is it so offensive that I live in a classy hotel? The highest burn rate of $200k per month was last week, now I spend at about $50k per month. If I go home and eat noodles, my expenses still run at about $20-30k minimum, since I have staff. Most of the businessmen do, in the real world. Generally their expenses are much higher than mine. I am actually very stingy, compared to most of my friends.

If you think this is excessive for what I manage to accomplish, how about complaining about how your very own tax money is spent in Afghanistan with far less positive effect? I would say the difference is about 4 orders of magnitude, in other words 10,000 times more money totally wasted!

With a rather conservative price prediction for the following 3 months, I estimate a 100% per month increase, which would mean that per every BTC100, you make about $10k first month. A 3rd class supernode can quit eating noodles and start to live. A 2nd class supernode of BTC1,000 can do what I do, and I just await that the real big guys start to benefit the mankind with their stashes.

This is the reason I spend - to show that even a medium BTC-holder can do this! No reason to hate, rather you live up to your own standard, and I live up to mine. If you have at least BTC1,000 as I assume every 2012 or before has (unless he proves otherwise), you can do the same as I do, with ease. Why should I do all the work?? Every city needs at least one supernode, and I am here to help these becoming reality. It is one of the workshops in the summit.

Besides there is no "flooding of community". I post my theoretical observations to my own thread. Then I post my price predictions here, and every time I do, some April 14th troll speaks negatively of me. Then I correct the misunderstanding. In no way I am here to cause disturbance - the instant the OP


How about the following:
- You escrow 100 bitcoins for my 1
- You write a 2013 $100,000 call option to your bitcoins, so that I can buy them from you anytime, by just sending you $10 million U.S. Dollars
- If I do not redeem your bitcoins before 31. December 2013, you get my 1 bitcoin as I lose the bet

This way everybody profits. Even if you lose, you get $10 million, and the rest of your bitcoins are worth even more. If I lose, I only lose 1 bitcoin, and I still have a lot (and they were not that valuable anyway.. )


My middle initial is A.

I only bet so that I win regardless. If you offer such bad odds, I better just buy bitcoins. Besides betting without actual transfer of bitcoins to me, is pointless hot air, therefore I either buy calls or write puts. I thought you would be happy by either getting 1 bitcoin or 10 million USD... no lose huh

What price range do you believe then??

How many people you know, who bought a mobile phone, but went back to fixed line?

How many tried Internet but decided it's not for them?

If something happens in the world, would the news not reach the uttermost ends of the earth in latest 48 hours (if not instantly for most places)?

What keeps 1 billion people from adopting bitcoin? (How can you keep them from not adopting it?)

How many bitcoins are for sale?

To not believe in $300k this year is a denial of the facts. Only a technical flaw in the algorithm or a superstealthfast adoption of a superior altcoin currently not existing, or an all-out wiping away of all mankind can keep USD/BTC from exploding this year. Already everyone who has any position in this world knows about Bitcoin. Just post any nugget of actual facts that can contradict my $300k this year or cease replying to me with nothing material, thank you.

It is marvellous that almost nobody dares to believe simple math, in the context that it would make them insanely wealthy. It is almost as if the becoming rich part is detrimental to bitcoin adoption... Good that the mobile phone did not make early adopters rich, we would still have fixed lines even today...

1000 -> 1 million users => 2000x price appreciation
1 million -> 1 billion users => 2000x price appreciation

I agree that Bitcoin could one day potentially reach $300k per BTC. However why maintain it will be within a year, almost certainly? That is just silly and makes it look like you're trolling.

For some reason you are saying outrageous things to get attention while being smart enough to know that the things you are claiming are silly.

ooooohhhhh god... it's become reptilia observer thread again COME ON


it is written





and this needed a +1

especially because if he is right, and BTC does one day reach $300k... well, this will be up on billboards everywhere

could help one to sell over 100$ when trying to sell a lot ...

I have a feeling that goat is right. It will visit double digits today after all, one last time. Remember to buy yours then!

I'm in a win win here,

btc goes down, i get more btc

btc goes up, i get Ferrari

We probably can't imagine some of who are involved in BTC. I think that is a fair statement.

For all we know a big buyer (VC) steps up, if that sell is removed first, and just purchases the $2M in bitcoins without making the price move up. Think about that. Great opportunity to buy lots at one time.

If they pull it, we might just run on through it, actually that is my feeling anyway. I really don't think the large sell order will stay, just as the earlier large bid at 100 (?) got pulled.

For some reason, trading today and yesterday is like a movie...

The guy is probably going to get impatient soon if he's been waiting for the price to hit $120 all day long. He might dump his coins at $117 already.

Btw. 2 and a half minutes of Goxic lag right now.

Oh right, walls...

So, about the 2 millions wall, when is it going to be lifted?

If you know simply math then
1. 11M btc exists
2. if somebody can buy 15k btc then there is NOT more than 11M/15k = 734 traders trading this amount (700 traders are not mainstream)
.
.
.
3.  80% bitcoiners hold bitcoin for long ->  there are maximum 74 traders what can afford sell 15k btc

i agree with zenmario. 'market manipulation' is usually just large players performing their best action given market conditions. it's just as 'fair' as smaller sums attempting similar tricks on smaller scales.

Have you guys consider for a split second that somebody might really want to sell those coins?

Also, all this work pushing the price up, then he, according you guys' manipulation theories, is able to sell at higher price. I hate to burst your bubbles, but if removes the wall there is no market depth to execute his selling orders at whatever prices he has been trying to push to.

Also, if you have more money than what is necessary to manipulate a market, then  you can only go for peanuts anyway. Market manipulations usually have strategic/political goals behind. Sinking a small player, build or destroy confidence on an niche, media access, etc.   Manipulating to capitalize doesn't really work, if you are the biggest player then you are the most affected by your manipulation.

Not necessarily. It will fall when sentiment turns around and people stop buying / start selling. It will be hard to get past $125 yes but so was $100, $110, $120... so in the end walls mean nothing.

Right now most TA hints at a correction - we just can't keep going up, up, up, we're overbought. But the low volume skews the timeframe as of which it will happen. It may just hold for another few days as new money flows in and latecomers buy on the Chinese news, taking us to $130 or maybe higher. However the longer we stay overbought the harder it will correct.

Fresh? You have to be kidding me. That is week old news that everyone who is aware of anything around here, is already aware of.

It appears to me that the capitulation pattern from $145 to $80 has ended. Three days to fall to $80, and three days to recover back to $124.

Question whether the price will surpass $145 or $160 this month - I believe not, based upon the notion that we are in a collapsing bubble.

As everyone here probably knows, I am a long term bull attempting to multiply my bitcoins by trading this bubble, which compels me to adopt bearish tactics as the opportunity presents.

When traders say that bitcoin has passed from weak hands to strong ones, they are describing a mechanism that prolongs a bubble collapse.

Certain traders holding losing positions (the weak hands) stop-loss sell to new buyers who can withstand a bit of a drop (the strong hands), until the latter in turn sell as they become the weak hands - right?

I believe that the bubble collapse will take the approximately the same duration as the bubble expansion phase - approximately three months. Plenty of time for more capitulations before the final bottom of this bubble - I think.

Bit boring watching the price right now.

There hardly seems to be any selling. The 124 is relentlessly being pursued. Quite a bit of resistance around 122. Little resistance around 124 - 125, just bears sitting there waiting to be eaten.

I think not much is going to change until late afternoon.

I would feel even more confident about my bitcoin bubble assumptions if the price did not exceed $145 again before the final bottom.

They took it down to 115 in the last couple minutes. What charts are you looking at? 

Hehe, so strange to see rampion bullish at 120 

Even in multi-player zero-sum games there may be significant advantages to players, i.e. win-win situations, resulting from the sharing of noisy or misleading information.

I am here because I believe that what I learn helps me to multiply my bitcoins. I do not believe that what I say meaningfully affects the bitcoin exchange market, and the criticism my ideas receive is easier to accept than lessons taught solely by the market.

Do whatever you think it's best mate but I wouldn't go with the line "seems all sellers have made big sell offs". We never know that. Panic is always one minute of happening.

Where are you seeing that? I still see the total sales at 172k. The only wall is 2k at $130. (I'm looking at ClarkMoody)

I am really careful of that order book (market depth is the same I think?) as that is where the psychological manipulation occurs.
If someone wants to bring things down, they will just put out a sale at market and then add to it, no? Maybe a bit of both?

Do you see the sudden drop in the Bid Sum from Monday? That was most likely wallzilla taking down his wall to buy coins. You see the sudden spike in the Ask Sum for today? That is likely wallzilla putting his new coins on the order book. He must have spread them out for profit taking instead of a huge sell wall that would likely take time to sell through. It DOES NOT mean he is going to take down all those orders he just placed and market dump. True bears will come out of nowhere and drop 15k coins.

You actually lose money market buying or market selling, compared to setting up a wall and waiting. Well, wallzilla was waiting on the crazy typical bear to come along over the weekend, and he didn't. So he took down his wall. That we know. What we don't know is what happened next with him. Did he just make small buy orders multiple times and now has all his coins on the sell side? That's what I think, and not some random bear adding 2 mil to the ask side to drive the price down. If he did what you said and just "gave up" and took down his wall, that is even more scary, to know that there is that much cash waiting off the books to ride this thing upwards. And if that is the case, then it's very bullish. Lets just say he sees the price go down to 110, where he had his wall, do you think he will just keep letting it fall? Close to 100 like you say? I doubt it, unless he is stupid, which makes me wonder where he got that cash from if he is that stupid. He would put up his wall again and get the coins he was looking for. But I think he has them already, even if he didn't get them until we got in the 120 range.

Wallzilla, if you are out there, put your wall back up, so we know what is going on. If he does, then it's obvious my opinion was wrong. If we keep moving up, something tells me he who has 2 million is smart enough to already be on the train.

This is the first time I've ever been a real bear before. I just sold all my remaining Bitcoins. Still predicting a drop for tommorow.


Being a bear is actually quite crappy, being bullish is much more fun.

Can I buy sub-100 back or no??  

So much for a sell-off... back to 114... that 110 wall will be hard to knock down... Next crash will be $95-100 at the lowest..

So where is all the dumping from yesterdays monumental wall owner?
I guess this is bragging, but turns out I was right, we are 15 usd past it. What happened to all those 'obvious manipulations'?

Two little walls at 124 and 125, the latter have been there all day, I don't think the market will move outside the 110~122 for a while. A climb of a couple of dollar for today. I for one am fine with this progress.

I think you misunderstood my comment. I'm predicting higher and higher crashes just by looking at the history of the most notorious crashes.

2011 crash ~$32 to ~$0.02
Fork Crash ~$50 to ~$32
Big High crash $266 to $55
Last Crash ~$140 to $79

My prediction is a crash in the 95-100 range for the next "big" crash and then another crash on the $130-$150
I'm not bearish at all, I'm just stating facts based on the crashes that we've had.
Feel free to correct me if you think I'm wrong.

Thanks.

People complaining about the effects of speculation on, wait for it, the speculation forum. Seriously.

These coins are all cheap. Leave the penny fighting for someone else

So, we're going to see 95 again?

It's Tuesday, banks are open and we're still in a slow decline. Very bad sign if you ask me .

I meant a very bad sign pricewise. So you agree that it seems like we're going down?

Make that: "For the average Joe, Bitcoin is not yet a train about to leave the station."

- But it will be. If not this month, then the next. I called a 1-3 month consolidation in 100-120 area before a supermove up. We are right there even now, 4 weeks after the bubble burst. If I panic buy at 144 meanwhile, it is my own problem.

It has plenty of time to go to sub-$100 in May. Even as of this writing, there is $500k bid volume to 102, which is so pathetic that if I show a wall of 1k coins like I did yesterday, it will crash right here and now. It takes about 45 mins to send the coins.

The fact that Paypal, moneygram, and western union are all "looking at bitcoin" will put pressure on each of them to be the first to pull the trigger for obvious reasons. Once that happens any consolidation period will end abruptly. With the aforementioned pressure, I don't see it taking more than a month or two for one of them to get in the game in one way or another because the advantage of being the first in will be massive.

Then there's the whole China ordeal which may or may not amount to anything spectacular, but if nothing else, will make Bitcoin even more enticing to entrepreneurs and established large businesses.

my mBTC.02

No. Check out the hourly chart. The price is coiling for a spike to the upside.

It's a good point. If bitcoins were to break $100 downward I would probably sell everything. However at the same time, if bitcoins were to break $100 downward and I didn't catch it in time to sell everything, I would buying everything under $100. Hence I think we will hover around $100 for some time, any normal crash is driven by our greedy desire to outfox the the guy next to us and call the bottom. It's not really driven by any technical issues with bitcoin just as it rises back up one we get paranoid that the music has stopped and we won't get our coins back. Its like musical chairs, but with bitcoin. Every round you can either get more coins or lose coins.

How low are you expecting?

Don't worry ...
Baby bear is calling for daddy bear

No, that's not my goal. I'm here to buy cheap, like everyone else
Since that we have 30k btc to breach 90, i think that we will even stay above that.

But someone invested a lot on long during these days... It's a fact. Will he accept the loss or crash the market? Dunnow.

Thank you for all the coins. Rpietila has bought 2,500,000mBTC, left the trading desk, and will join the guests in his conference.

I believe rpietila to be genuine. And i think most people on here do not understand the northern european (scandinavian) mentality - very business like - no emotion.....pure and utter efficient.....Finland is pretty much top of the quality of living scale...very very different mentality.

I would appreciate his opinions on where he thinks we go from here,

I love it when supernodes go 3rd person.

Back to the wall, that ask wall is pulling back slightly. He really doesn't want anyone eating it up.

Major Human Flaw: Some people refer to themselves in the third person.


Explanation by Elsa Ronningstam, associate clinical professor of psychology at Harvard Medical School and author of Identifying and Understanding the Narcissistic Personality: Referring to yourself in the third person creates distance between "I" and "he." So if you have an exaggerated view of how great you are, you could be using this distance to make yourself even bigger. Or, if you've achieved major success suddenly, using the third person could be a way to adjust to the bigger role that's been assigned to you. It's a way to enlarge yourself to fit that role.

Bitcoin invested Venture Capitalist says ...

Sorry man I took less than a minute to correct the post.  I guess I was so impressed by an initial article scan that did not pay attention

Only 170 KBTC on the exchange! My God, they are almost out!

Bid sum keeps rising.

Time for 125

It will drop to 90 this time

)

No decisive movement yet, eh? Alright then, summary time. (sorry for the sloppy style, this is more or less stream of consciousness)

Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)

(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent

(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.

(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.

(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)

(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)

(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.

(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5

pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.

/pseudoscience

Well, I aim for 3% increase in BTC volume per day, so since I have just bought the BTC at $112.5, it's not worth cutting my losses at $110, as it will take longer to recover them.
Anyway, the downward trend seems to have lost momentum, and is turning back upwards.

I'm trying to make my initial buy-in of 6.2 bitcoins* into enough to quit work - I'm at 16.7 now, after 2.5 weeks, so eventually I will manage it - if only I can purchase and sell at the right time for once.

I'd rather take my time, and tread carefully. I have slipped back too many times this week (I had 22.5 BTC at one point, then held cash due to a badly timed sell, as it shot up on the 3rd while I was asleep. I tried to recover by buying in late, just as it peaked again - I lost about $500 that day)

The thing is, I have very limited resources, and I really don't think it will drop much below $110 again any time soon, so I'd rather not risk it.


* I bought those (literally) 15 minutes before it plunged from $250....

From what I understand, he's pretty loaded and had some great foresight to get into bitcoin early. You don't get to that point without being a winner imo.


As for the 10BTC/hr, it's subjective and probably worth it to some people because this is a very specialized field so you can't just call up any old financial advisor, and if nothing else, rpietila has the reputation to be trusted not to run off with your money.


This forum needs more love

The funny thing is that this actually kind of looks like him.

I do.

Also,

Head and shoulders?

Not happening. That 1.5 is now about 7.5k+BTC

Not sure if sarcasm or not...

I don't want to do the demoralizer here, but i think that what you aim for is impossible.
First of all, you should try to maximize your profits. If you don't do so, you will have burnt 10 days of lucky work with a single loss of 30% (that will certanly happen to you, sooner or later).

We are simply having an uber low volume period, we are at the end of the triangle. When we break it, in a few days, it will be funny and 111 will not matter anyway.

I am shorting it... and I know it will fall. Its just making all of you a fool

Currency value equals to amount of gold it holds.

When the anonymous japanese runs away with all your money.... people will cry here

I just had a source confirm who predicted the 110 price as of now at 6pm and further said, bitcoin will crash to 70-80 in the next few hours/1 day (depending where you are) followed by 50 and then stay there for a week or two and then bounce again after the conference to 120 and go back down.

Sell sell sell now for your profits.... and buy back...

cheers!

Price will drop to 50!!!

I have cashed out 10k ...waiting for $50 ))))

BTC to go down to $50... sell sell sell

It will fall more... go below 90 in the next few hours

let the japanese and indians wakeup!

What is public knowledge about this guy? There is no Wikipedia article or the like...
Is he a weirdo?

My guess is this is pure troll (and Rampion, I think he's probably referring to Satoshi not Karpeles) but what's interesting about it is that there are people out there who believe so strongly in the simplistic 'gold-backed-or-valueless' thing that when shorting becomes easily available a significant amount of money will be bet against Bitcoin in this manner.

I can't see enough of the bigger picture to tell what how this would affect the market but my guess is they'll have to be borrowing btc from somewhere to short it so if there's a high demand then maybe there'll be profit to be made in lending at a reasonable interest?

That would impossible to tell as we're not finished yet!



Wednesday trade for 2013: note that 9th Jan 2013 was VERY quiet, right before launching quietly into the dominant trend of the year so far!

This was @ 10:30 it's now around 37,000.

Why everyone now turned bearish?
Just because we are at the end of the triangle and the only heavy movement you expect is down?

Im still waiting to buy in 95ish....ive just got this feeling its gonna go down....the general mood in here has been very bullish the last 24hours..almost like everyone just expects it to keep rallying...and the way this market has been recently the opposite normally happens...the market bites back.

808 coin purchase just went thru!

Why doesn't it show that? Or I am I looking at the wrong chart (bitcoinity.org)

The now known to be fake ask wall at $115 vanished just as trades approached it.

The selling one is a bit bigger ^^

The massive dumps don't work any more -- it's just flushing away cheap coins down the toilet. I think people will wise up.

20kBTC in 5$... won't happen in this market. A retrace to 105 is far more probable...

It is stabilizing, right where we are.  

You might say that BTC has gained the faith at any lower prices.   It's called consolidation.   If bid sum was falling during consolidation, then we would see a breakout downwards.   It has however been rising.   More likely to breakout upwards, only there is no way to know.   I am still not all in . . .

There is way too much support growing to ever see the prices you seem to want.   The only reason to want the price down is so that you can buy in, and then what?  Celebrate when it goes up 150%?   It makes more sense that you buy in now, and gain 150% from here, and it would be better for BTC if you buy in now and "only" realize a 50% increase.

If BTC goes down as much as you want, it will do anything but stabilize.

Who is in a rush to drop half a million on bitcoins? Let them coin dump and fill your bids you end up with more coins. A lot of those coins were bought 98-110 and tossed up from 110-120. No one is in a rush to pay them off. No one wants to hold so its slow going up ATM. If I'm looking to buy in right now I'm waiting for a drop. Based on the last few weeks few years those come around a fair bit.

Wondering why so many seem to be expecting a drop in the coming days.

Dumping 50 at 108
120 at 107.80

and 150 at 107.5

to keep the motion down

The similarities really are uncanny.



And the part where it's not the same thing... it's a mirror image!

Corrected that for you. 

Update: And the results are in:



6th highest US dollar volume for a Wednesday but only just tops the first couple of Wednesdays in the 5% daily rush we had.

Oh and sorry if I'm getting in the way of the action here zzzz....

due to low volume I hope you guys don't mind a crosspost from here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=192719.msg2084624#msg2084624



to enter a bear market we need a lower low. Depending on timeframe there are 2 potential lows to break:

• the $80 low on 5/3 (red)
• the $50 low on 4/16 (yellow)

if we don't make a new low below $80, it's not a bear market but a correction (by investopedia definitions quoted further above). We could then enter a bull market or at least further consolodation pattern (green). Of course there's different options for "green", I just outlined roughly one of them. A break of the $170 top would clearly mean we're in a bull market again (both higher highs and higher lows would've been reached then)

I don't think we have to wait more than a month to see this resolved.

True, and that scenario exists (let's call it the "grey" scenario). That exhibition is not complete.

btw: I think "green" is most likely, followed by "grey", then "red", then "yellow". That might be based on wishful thinking, though.

Wonderful. Here are some numbers and a chart:




1. 2013-04-30, H: 146.93
2. 2013-05-03, L:   79.00

Diff: 67.93, Center: 112.97

3. 2013-05-06, H: 124.90
4. 2013-05-07, L:   97.52

Diff: 27,38, Center: 111.21

Where are we now? ~111-112

Pure harmony..

Yes if I wasnt't trading with 4:1 leverage through plus500, I might have fallen asleep 

Who borrows you the Bitcoin on plus500 when you go short?
What's the interest?

Shouldn't the issuer (plus500) try to behave risk-neutral? Are they fully gambling against you? Will they only accept as much "short" as somebody else goes "long"?
Besides that I really really like the interface - worlds between that and gox.

interesting... I get "http 403: forbidden" on http api calls to data.mtgox.com.

interesting 2.) same client works from another host.

what is remarkable is that there are no accompanying large sells on other markets and no panic. This is not the usual ddos play, is it?

enough to satisfy demand?

I agree with oda.krell in principle, however pragmatically speaking you are 100% correct here.

Doubling every 30 days would be a 4000-fold increase each year. I think double every 6 months or so would be much more reasonable/sustainable. If you think that is slow, you should recalculate. Bitcoin would reach trillion dollar market size within 5 years, if we experienced such "moderate" growth starting now  

No, I wasn't defending TA with this, simply pointing out that "they'd be rich and they wouldn't be on here making charts" wasn't exactly true.
(With a tongue-in-cheek, I must admit.)

Edit: I saw the potential, but I was also too entrenched to recognize a possibility of a bear market. Now at least I'm sitting on the fence.

To me, the enthusiastic crowds of new bitcoin buyers are missing. Bargain-hunting buyers are more cautious about buying above these levels. Caution facilitates patience.

But should prices slowly slump, or perhaps simply not rise, then I believe there will be another leg down testing $80. In a collapsing bubble, price trend bias is downwards.

Agreed. There's 2.7M of fiat between $100-$112. No one wants to cash out 25k coins for 2.7M? So if the buyers think it's worth between $100-$112 and every seller thinks they can get more then $112, that's an awful lot of people who have some measure of confidence in BTC. And now we can get amazon giftcards for BTC again, yaaaayaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.

The market is different from 4 months ago.

Consider 11 million bitcoins. 1 million probably lost, and 75% sitting in wallets rarely moving. This leaves 2.5 million active in the market, the "free float"
Winklevii have absorbed 110k for a long-term investment. Many others have done the same. Assume that 1000 people have recently taken 1000 coins each for long-term holdings as the news frenzy went on. That means the 2.5m free float has been halved. Market dynamics are complex and this could easily mean a stable 8x increase in value.

This will constantly change. When BTC passes $1000 many stale coins from the 75% will wake-up and hit the market. Expect price swings like $1,700 to $700 in a few days. All the newspuppies who called Bitcoin a bubble ponzi will also wake-up and claim they were right. It continues...

This is jsut a waste of time - BTC!!

There is no movement. I am selling and moving on to silver or other currency!

Wow, props to Rampion on that timing

Was just on cam with Bitsinmyhead, was a little awkward.

Now the important question is whether America will back up this break out with some real volume when they wake up in 1-2hrs from now. Either we rally on, or people start taking their small profits and we go back down to 110-115.

The 1 thing that I didn't want to happen actually ended up happening. We broke out upwards. I have been wrong all along with my predictions and I feel like a complete coward. No $60 coins.

Anyways, BULL-mode is ON! Let's get them coins going real good!

Good thing you capitulate on time to get these sweet sub-$150 coins. Yeeehaa.

Choo choo motherfuckers.

US sentiment ? Profit taking or Upwards?

Volumes down.

I had no fiat, so it was one or the other, and I have done terribly trading.
So I will have a shiny 3x HD7970 rig, churning out 2GH/s - and my ASIC will eventually arrive, so I'll do ok in the long run.

Here is the next triangle.

There is nothing worse then a bear sitting on the sidelines, pockets full of fiat, feeling lonely because everyone left him behind.

Good news is, there's no shame in buying in, long term looks fantastic, a little bumpy in the short term, but there are enough cool gifs in this thread to keep you happy (and a few charts with lines n shit).

Are you gonna need help wiping afterwards?

Ok, i did market orders only today. I'm tired of trading this thing. (i was waiting for a re-entry point since when i sold everything at 110, i kicked myself not to have bought at 78$).
I bought at 122 and sold at 119. I bought again at 121 (5% of losses only for this move?).

Cashed out to a paper wallet, i don't want to see mtgox again for the next 2 months. I reached the 0.29% trading fees, they want me to get addicted. I have other things to do in the meanwhile, the only choose was between staying all in or all out.

Bitcoin conference, lot of positive media reviews, lot of buzz, 40k btc on buy orders from here to 100$, i don't think that this will be another 2011, but this confidence should tell me that maybe everything is out there to convince me to do the wrong choice.

We will see, bitcoin. 2 months from now, we will see.

It's very simple, once everyone is a bull we've reached the top and we're going down hard. When everyone is a bear waiting for cheaper coins the market will go up, hard. When it's a 50/50 mix we're probably going nowhere and there's only consolidation.

This change of sentiment by one trader is entirely consistent with the steady drop in volume after the April 10 peak.

anyone care to speculate what happens to all the orders from 80-90ish down to $10 if we don't start heading that way in the coming weeks?

My understanding, mostly from reading this thread filled with comments from bitcoiners who've been around longer than myself, is that cheap coins are wanted.


If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?

Using my primitive trend detection skills I drew a picture...



as everyone knows our nice huge beautiful triangle has been breached to the upside. Upper bound (1) needs to be redrawn (line 2 is an example, can also be drawn differently). Not so nice-looking any more.

I tried to draw some possible trends:

• small green channel: to enter short-term (3 day) uptrend we need to break $125
• red channel: to enter short-term (7 day) downtrend we need to break $80
• big green channel: to enter mid-term (4 weeks) uptrend, we need to break $166 (I didn't draw the green line for this one)

we might not enter a clear trend at all and just smurf along in the yellow area.

ok, that's pretty clear

I guess there is also a value based on a kind of sentimental attachment as well. Bitcoins exponential growth has no doubt been greatly benificial for early adopters. I can see how this, and the further potential growth of bitcoin would be quite compelling, especially when added to the idealism that surrounds the coin (for some).


back on topic:

As you said those are all medium to long term plays, which means little incremental ups over a long extended period of time as milestones are met.  

Contrast that to Cyprus which was very short term, in your face, get your f--kin money out NOW! As that new flow came in, more people jumped on the band wagon.


See the difference?

Ultrabull is the default character selection in the Bitcoin MMO. Pretty much everyone starts out as one.

Agreed with your thinking. Also, there are so many people following TA that the spike might be driven by the trend-line watchers jumping in and momentum becomes self-fulfilling. A breakout usually retests support before taking off. Heading for a retest at the moment...

This is pretty much exactly what I told my girlfriend when she finally asked why she wasn't getting hourly bitcoin updates anymore!

Though obviously, her eyes had glazed over before I finished the first sentence...

I agree with about the oxymoronic use of 'slow' panic   ... that don't make much sense ...
However, I dont agree that anyone who wants to buy in at a lower level than this is trying to get in at a discount. There are a lot of assumptions in that. I know that is not exactly what you said, but similar things have been said by many people, so I am just pointing it out that it ain't necessarily so. I am sure there are people running round trying to scare people so they can buy cheaper something they believe to be worth more (I see them!). Some others amongst us just don't want to buy at these prices and see too much risk here and now.