Huh???

There is no difference.

Sorry, I thought you were asking if x(a+b+c) was different from ax+bx+cx. I misread you.

I believe it is calculated as sum(price that the bid was made x number of btc bid for). Wouldn't make much sense otherwise.

Only 6k to $130 now...

In other news, the price in China is still depressed. All the arbitrage bots will be running backwards.

I think we'll just trade in this narrow (for Bitcoin) band for a while.... you know, it is possible, we don't constantly have to be bouncing.

The way I see it, over the past nearly-two weeks the average support price has been increasing and quite robust. Looks like the oportunity for childish DDoS plays is decreasing.

I think this bodes very well for next week, after the holiday... Or who knows, perhaps bank holiday Monday could be a cracker.

Dude, don't help it go viral. It's fucking CNN iReport -- user-generated content. The only difference between that and YouTube is that some people actually watch YouTube.

Nobody will fall for that shit, so don't worry.

Agree, things are really breaking down in here.

Oh look, the price has recovered... again.... after the "crash for no reason".

When will people learn?

If people are willing to pay a premium for their BTC, make them pay FFS. Stop giving them away for cheap!

If coinlab really is that great, and people need their licenses, then just open it up already. They will succeed without MtGox's customers.

It doesn't make Mt Gox right for reneging on contracts (if that is what they did), but it's not worth whining over either.

If you can't stand on your own two feet, then fuck it...

Taking it to court isn't going to help anyone one iota.

Calm.

Plenty of trades going through as far as I can see.

Oh, stop it already... you are all very silly.

Bull traps are peaks, not troughs...

Is that really how you invest... on.... what? a 10 minute timescale??

You're gambling on random noise, man.

On pretty much any sensible trading timescale: 24h, 48h, 1 week, 1 month, this is no-way-no-how a "bull trap".

Asks are basically flat to $120. I know that with panic selling, the money will appear rather than being tied up in walls -- but there still doesn't look like huge scope for the price to deflate ad-infinitum.

On the bid side, there are sizeable walls at $96 and $97.

I think we'll pass through $100 a few times today. It will be hard to keep the price down.

Newsflash: If you're wondering "Is it time to sell?", it's already too late. (that means: it's time to hold or buy).

I have some news that should improve on that, hopefully coming this week...

The wall is not necessarily all from one person.

Quite a nice shallow upward slope these last few days. All very sensible and nice. I hope the bears stocked up this time -- eventually there will be no going back for more.

Dude, it takes all of 30 minutes to deposit fiat on Chinese exchanges. why would they wire to Gox?

I don't think it will drop much further right now. I think people are beginning to learn their lesson...

Not at all. I've been well exposed to people exclaiming crashes every time there is a slight dump.

... but, no...

All I've seen over the past few weeks are bottom-fishers. IMO it is the bears that should know by now... you can't keep a good thing down ;-)

... see?

One day the bears will listen.

Orders are still coming through.

Looks like people are making good use of the "lag attack" posted on reddit. Fuckers.

Looks to me like 110 - 120 is a fair trading range to be honest. I think you're selling cheap.

Because people sell at the drop of a hat.

Once bitten twice shy, eh? In this case, I think you might actually be low-balling it.

Anyway, these are all cheap coins.

It's pretty good news though -- Some of the sellers on Taobao are huge, making money hand over fist.

ummm... sell when it looks like it's going up to fast, not the other way around :-) Otherwise, you're just being shaken down.

:-) Right this time!

What are you talking about? There is no "break downwards", and there will not be. We're just seeing normal fluctuations with fairly low volume -- and each trough is higher than the previous. There is no sign of a downward break.... but if we do break down, it won't be for a few days. Equal chance we break to the upside at the moment IMO.

The massive dumps don't work any more -- it's just flushing away cheap coins down the toilet. I think people will wise up.

Bunch of negativity in the Wall observer thread = time to buy.

But then, it's (usually) always time to buy...

^ this. It's been more than long enough now. Cheap coins are pointless if you keep cheapening them.

And the only way to foil his scheme? Ignore the fake panic sells. And it looks, to me, like people did start just doing that....

So maybe that's why we now have relatively long-term stability -- manipulators biding their time until the tactics work again.

Bears undoing a days worth of good work in minutes. Again.

This is all very boring and disappointing to watch.

Give it up already...

A 6-hour timeframe and candles already overlapping your line does not make a "channel"

$100 has held firm this time... We're seeing higher lows at each successive dump.

Agree... And the key part here is that Bitcoin is now even more clearly te best way to move money. By cracking down on fiat movements (Dwolla), they can only make Bitcoin's perceived value as a medium of transfer increase. If the aim is to attack Bitcoin, this will prove to be a massive own goal.

Meanwhile, Bitcoins are now cheap, it's Wednesday, and Europe, which doesn't use Dwolla, is just waking up. Great time to buy.

What logic?

There's not much logic in selling _after_ the fact, when the bottom could already have come in -- safer to hold.
There's not much logic in selling unseizable currency to buy fiat when the government is trying to prevent you from receiving it.
There's not much logic in expecting non-US people to react to news that only affects users of a small payment service provider that only offers its services to US citizens.

The solution is to keep your assets in BTC in your own wallet, not as fiat or BTC in exchange accounts.

Which really is nothing new.

Your constant desire to buy lower (along with others like you) when you have already had ample opportunity is what is devaluing the currency. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

At some point, the momentum of what you are trying to do in the short term  will overwhelm any momentum that will allow you to gain longer-term. People will just get bored. Then you can buy your cheap coins, and keep them.

No, shutting down fiat payment flows does NOT devalue a currency intrinsically able to route around such problems. Furthermore making it more difficult to obtain does not decrease it's value.

Frittering away market value speculatively just at the time when big investors may be looking to come on board, does.

Finally, a point we can agree on :-)

Anyway, a bit of perspective...



Wasn't really even a blip, was it? Much less deep, although admittedly much less decisive than the blockchain fork even in March.

This plateau we've been experiencing actually reminds me a lot of that time, just on a slightly longer timescale.

The price could admittedly do anything, but as time goes on, a continuing crash does appear to be increasingly unlikely. Even if volume is weak and we hold at around $110 - $115 for another couple of weeks, any downtrend will be pretty much broken.

This is becoming a running theme in these forums.

I don't watch TV, and certainly not reality shows... but I would start if there were one with you and rpietila trapped in a lift (elevator) together. Surely, hilarity would ensue!

It's feeling kinda... Bullish.... In here.

Good. It's been a while.

Fixed that for you.

Mutum Sigilum looks like it was set up for a completely different business, and was just conveniently co-opted when the online exchange business took off. Gox grew fairly organically from nothing, after all.

Yes, but I hope they don't. The law may be the law, and Mt Gox can improve, but he doesn't deserve to be arrested for this.

No excuse? It's only been a month, and these things take time and can be very onerous.

Gox has had it hard lately -- Repeated DDOS, unfriendly business "partners" suing them for not giving up their customers, and now this...

I really hope the last two points (or indeed all of them) aren't related. That would be more than disappointing.

Except -- exchanges threaten to close and actually close all the time. so they're not really uncharted.

Anyway, Gox will be OK, this will likely just be a relatively minor inconvenience for them.

@coinseeker... you're trying too hard.

Come clean then, have you shorted BTC? Might be easier for you to just give up now and liquidate your position early. It'll be a lot less stressful for you in the long run.

Imagine Parker and Penelope showing off about how expensive their hotel was... and then refusing to pay the bill at the end...  FAB...

Not quite the same.

Yes, that sucks, although it's not exactly surprising. Things seemed to be getting worse as time went on -- the forum audience can't help. We should send a get-well card -- but him and his family would be far better off if he left this place for good.

I'm still not sure if anyone really knew what a supernode was... but I hear worse make-believe in business most days.

Sentiment seems good here. Hopefully this means, this time, we don't roll over as soon as we see a $10 gain.

Artificially manipulated "stable" market? Investors would spot it, and it's the last thing they would want. I don't think anyone will seriously waste their money doing this.

C'mon, it's just an impasse between buyers and sellers, most of the time with low volume. There is more than one exchange and people all around the world simultaneously either investing or getting cold feet.

Followed by an EVEN BIGGER PARTY

Anyway, looks like we're really in the midst of a decoupling from MtGox. Price 5% higher than all the other exchanges (this used to be really rare, especially for China), and volume dwindling. But will other exchanges still follow Gox's price lead? If they do, there is only one possible result: Price will be INFINITY.

No...

I may as well give up reading the Internet now. That was the best bit.

+2

It's easy to deal with dumpers anyway -- just ignore them. And it looks to me that people have started doing just that. It's not the end of the fake panic / DDoS scares I'm sure... but regardless of how long they wait, the solution is still the same: ignore.

If they want to flush their already-cheap coins down the toilet, be my guest. Hope the door doesn't hit them on the way out.

May as well be. Volume is spectacularly low. Everyone's waiting for the US to wake up and set the pace.

(up, of course).

I wonder what Loaded has planned...

This is BIG BIG news, if it is true. I had imagined most Western regulators would be strong-armed by the US... and they may still might... but nonetheless this is very promising indeed. We need a sane counterpoint to the US' War on Everything We Can't Track, and we might just have it right here.

I think it's just going to take one big buy to push people off the edge... I smell a panic buy coming on...

It looks to me like the price gap between Gox & Bitstamp is closing. Gox is happily soaking up all the "returning asks". Once we are close to parity, the spring will be ready to uncoil...

Are ask walls finally beginning to be nibbled at BitStamp....?

If that were true, there would have been volume... but there wasn't.

Anyway, looks like the price is finally beginning to wake up.

It got it's own section in the Financial Times: http://www.ft.com/intl/indepth/bitcoin :-) Not very nice articles in there... but it's still quite a milestone.

^^ This. The way the initial sells register precipitously is becoming quite a "signature" by now. They certainly appear to be calculated for maximum effect, rather than any desire to sell or take profits.

I believe "OKPay suspending Bitcoin processing" and "OKPay not sending fiat to/from exchanges" is two different things. The former doesn't matter a whit to MtGox -- if you have Bitcoin, you can deposit it directly at Gox, no need to use OKPay.


I'm still trying to figure out MtGox's rather ambiguous wording on the matter, as they refer to OKPay suspending "all Bitcoin processing", but it's not clear what they mean.

Case in point: you.

You misunderstand me. I mean the total number of YOU in supply is low! :p

^ LOL

So, what now? Another consolidation period with no volume? How long this time? A fortnight? 6 weeks? followed by a final rally just to have it spoilt by a dumper on a whim? I think that scenario would be too sickeningly boring to be likely.

"Wait and see" is over -- consolidation is pointless. Screw stability. Buy and laugh in the dumpers' faces.

And *immediately* lapped up :-)

Gox being higher than Bitstamp is a thing of the past then :-)

Bears/manipulators/etc: Congratulations guys, you're getting your cheap coins.

Shame (for you) that now, none of us want to buy back in any more.

Enjoy those cheap coins!

Thanks for that.

I assume by "works", you mean "self-fulfilling prophecy"?

I find it easier to pay for some things with Bitcoin than fiat. It only takes a couple of clicks.

The key is how you buy the bitcoins. I happen to have some, so it's easier. Buying them is also still relatively easy. If I had to wire money each time, it wouldn't be worth it.

In terms of *receiving* money, I'd rather have BTC (for the aforementioned reason) than USD or other fiat, and prefer BTC over PayPal or other reversible payment methods.

It's still small, but the potential is there. Try to look into the future a bit.

Another likely scenario is that we just hover around here for another 3 months with minimal volume, growing back some balls.

... Of course, when we finally break out to the upside, rally will be killed off by a dumper within a week before a new trend can be decisively established. :-(

Store of value is directly relevant to the discussion though. They are not mutually exclusive factors. Because if you own BTC you are (obviously) more likely to spend BTC. If BTC increases in value you are more likely to jump through the hoops to buy. If more people own BTC there will be more opportunities to spend it.

Currently it's a chicken and egg argument -- which is one that neither of us can win. It appears you've been trying to win that argument since day one on this forum. You're wasting your breath.

Well, we could crash to 50 then have another long slow slide. For BTC to be an attractive large investment, the future price target must be high above the current level. If those investors aren't buying in now, nothing says they will buy in at $50. And if you're looking for increased mass adoption, a dump to $50 at s time when it is difficult for them to transfer in money, will NOT have the punters queuing up to buy.

I guess you were just kidding... but anyway, the crossing point is arbitrary, the two y axes have different scales... change them and they will cross at different points...

Yes, they are pretty cheap.

A few of us warned people clamouring for "cheap coins" weeks ago that this would happen... people want cheap coins? Well there you go. You have them. Fat lot of good it will do you now.

Not really -- any hopes of recovery up until 2 weeks ago were pretty much ruined by manipulators aiming for "cheaper coins". It removed all steam from the market, and has cheapened the value of bitcoin. Now we're seeing the result -- the cash-out.

They wanted cheaper coins, they got them. It's time now for people to fully reconcile the phrase "cheap coins" with reality.

Dude, DDoS followed by sudden drop, again and again and again. Up until the last one about 2-3 weeks ago -- that was the straw that broke the camel's back.

For a currency that can be manipulated so easily, the "sensible valuation" is "everyone's play money only". And so, it will be ....

Then those that are left can play with their pocket money on cheap coins.

Yes, sure. Wouldn't that be SIMPLY WONDERFUL?

Cheap coins!!!

When it finally reaches the bottom, surely everyone will FLOOD IN to buy them.

"SHUT UP AND TAKE MY MONEY", all the noobs will shout as they are desperate to buy into BTC. Banks will be awash with wires to Mt Gox.

VCs will be falling over themselves to get a piece of the action.

I mean, why wouldn't they?

+1

If you consider there will never be significant BTC adoption at any price, then why are you on these boards cheering the collapse?

I'm happy enough to ride the waves -- incredulous as I am sometimes.... but I am a long-term BTC believer, and at least am interested and invested in the technology and ecosystem.

You clearly don't want to buy in at a cheap price, given your previous comment. So why are you here? You really just like to troll?

I agree with you that this isn't manipulation -- been waiting for this coming.

There has been plenty of manipulation, however. It is what has brought us to this point. Any decisive breaks upward were followed by a DDoS and a precipitous sell-off. This -- cash fleeing -- is the inevitable result.

7-day work week.

I'm in the office :-)

Then a 3-day break

At the end of the day there are those of us who are invested in Bitcoin -- not only in terms of money, but also time and effort. Then there are people along for the free ride. But the sort with no hope are people like coinseeker, who really just seem to be here to troll. He must value his time the least of any of us.

... at least we're still able to make money from weak hands.   

A lot of the initial rise was due to arbitrage. The selling on Gox was unnatural and too far, too fast caused by blatant manipulation. There were many arb opportunities with a number of other markets not having the appetite to depress as quickly as Gox.

The rise to 110 surprised me, but -- in all honesty -- it is no less rational than the incredible dumps I saw just to drop the price below $100.

I'll be buying all the way down this time. Assuming a bunch of other people do the same, we may end up higher than we began this time.

People have learnt by now.... surely??

Any big dumps will be swiftly bought back. Whether that be Thursday, Friday or Sunday.

There will be no sustained drop of more than $2 for the next few weeks.

Nope!

If there are any drops, I'll be buying all the way down however --- and I see a number of people doing the same.

By "sustained" I mean "lasting for more than a few hours".

Yes, and everyone else too.

Which is why I find a sustained significant drop unlikely.

My prediction is backed with the full force of my e-peen... (and trades). :-)

:-) ... increased exposure, with the price at a local minimum. Could be worse.

The sell-offs don't seem as frenzied as last week -- I'm not sure this is a manipulator per se. Perhaps "medium sized fish" getting in before the anticipated weekend sell-offs.

The last thing such manufacturers will want to do is sell coins cheaply. Credit may be a more attractive option.

I don't know what you mean, all the evidence points to the fact that Gox is actually quite safe.

(PS: If you have fiat, now is the time to buy ;-))

What are the data points? Daily lows? weighted average price? (I think a scatter chart with trend line only makes sense for the latter).

Come on, it's not that bad - they seem to be quite positive about the potential for Bitcoin, but just require US exchangers to be registered and regulated.

They specificaly mention they are not out to get Bitcoin, and the quote you took out of context was used in her speech to specifically point out the differences between Bitcoin and LR. So to say "you could substitute LR for Bitcoin in that sentence" is woefully disengenuous.

It is apparent that Gox is making a best effort to comply with the regulations, and it looks like that has been heard loud and clear by FinCEN.

As for the children  angle -- well this is a meeting specifically about that, what do you expect?

It must suck to be around you, since it seems you are wilfully pessimistic about everything.

Everyone is a bit over-dramatic. We don't need a "crash".

On every step down, the price decreases a little, and the volume increases A LOT, with many willing buyers to be found.

Shortly thereafter the price almost-recovers, and the volume dwindles as everyone is afraid of another dump.

None of this is voodoo, or an "inevitable" slide to a tiny number.. it is simply the natural reaction of a market scared by manipulative dumpers.

When people realise that things aren't actually that bad, confidence will return and we will be able to trade higher volumes at higher prices.

Case in point: trolls like Jaroslaw trying to prey on your fears.

This is Bitcoin, so all of this will probably happen faster than we expect.

This. This group has rapidly turned into bear circle-jerk.

The reality is, we're over 60% down from our all-time high, our exchange footprint is increasing, the regulatory situation looks clearer and better than a month ago, and there is buying pressure despite attempted manipulation by dumpers. Now is, for all intents and purposes, a fantastic entry point.

Still good, it gives us a ballpark of what money people have on the sidelines. Sure, some is manipulation by sellers, but most are real.

Nice charts, but "evidence"? They show what we all know: it's been going down. Volume has been low. We know.

It's not evidence of future performance. 

The time to buy in is the lows of a bear market when everyone is crying scared. Looking around this thread, we can't be far off.

Antigravity! That's got to be bullish!

It's ridiculous to make these assertions before the weekend is out. Everyone is waiting to see if the dumper strikes again. Jury is out until Tues/Weds.

It's not the same at all. Not even remotely comparable.

Weather forecasting is running mathematical models through a simulator, looking for convergent outcomes, and assigning probabilities to them. It is mathematics based on science. It is not always accurate -- because that is the nature of probability; and the models can always be improved. The beef you have with weather forecasts may also be more to do with how they are presented rather than the forecast anyway. "48% chance of rain" is much more useful than a picture of rainclouds over your city.

On the other hand, technical analysis is based on the assumption that markets are predictable in behaviour due to regular patterns in aggregate human emotion. TAs will tell you that they are modelling market emotion. However they are not -- you will never see any such model presented. Rather they are using patterns in historical price and volume to predict future price and volume. Usually based on premises (such as Eliott Wave) that are 100 years old.

You will see lots of fancy indicators -- however they are all based on the same raw data: historical trades (There is no other data available). They are not even remotely modelling the underlying users and markets at play. You almost never see any TA that attempts to model the reasons for rises and falls. They treat price falls due to bad news, technical glitches, and manipulation equally, assuming that the average market participant knows nothing of the underlying causes too. This may have been (somewhat) useful for Wall St. a century ago, but to an Internet currency in 2013? Really?

Finally, another way that TA and weather forecasting is different... consider this. If TA could even remotely accurately model behaviour, the behaviour itself wouldn't happen and the price wouldn't move. This is the key as to why TA is effectively worthless. Is the TA influencing the market, or the other way around? Read around and you will soon realise it is the former. TAs are only market oracles to their herd of market sheep. Can't you see yourself how your last paragraph is testament to this fact?

... and we're off!


Will be interesting to see if some of those 13k in bids down to $95 will be panic-moved upwards...

No! Simplest explanation: They actually wanted to buy, think they lowballed too low, and are now reconsidering higher offers so they can still get back in at a decent price point.

Sure, some may be manipulative walls, but the simplest explanation is usually the safest one.

Most of you guys are crazy. Every time the price goes down, "all is well". Any bids or upward movement.... "OMG manipulators".

They very much are part of the market. I never said otherwise.

LOL.

^^ The price is likely to recover to at least $110 -- the pre-weekend sell-off was in anticipation of a dump that never happened; so now it's time for them to buy back.

Rally's been coming for days. Other markets are rallying too. The rise isn't manipulation.

Every single one ;-)

You can see them all here: http://btckan.com/price

USD price is second from left.

The weekend drop was already pretty reluctant TBH.

Wall at $105 looks attractive.

Yes, still more in development too -- I've seen 3 or 4 others bubbling up. Quite competitive.

Bear in mind that they all use instant payment methods too -- no wire transfers....

Not yet.

Only 10k to $110. Not exactly too difficult to achieve.

Big dump wouldn't keep the price down for long today... unless you really do want to wait to buy in in 8-ish days time at $180 ?

Nothing changed to cause any of the recent declines.

Dwolla was the last bad news to cause a decline. Since then the dumps have been purely speculative (or manipulative)

Why? Pretty inevitable. People only sold off prior to the weekend to get in early in case the Sunday dumper struck again.

People are dumb -- but that's what happened. If he had dumped again and the pattern repeated, they would have done well out of it. Of course, that was pretty unlikely.

"Because a bear is on" <-- what does that mean? It's just a state of mind. Furthermore buying the "bear dips" is not dumb at all.

Why do you sell at much cheaper than people are willing to pay if you want fiat?

All not-important-at-all questions. We are going up anyway.

We moved up primarily without help from the wall, so removing the wall would hardly have such a significant effect.

I agree with you -- in fact I think there's still a big missing market in Bitcoin now for advanced modelled TA -- running big simulations on user behaviour and adoption.

My bigger beef really is people blindly following TA without considering the underlying causes for any big movements. There is so much "The price has to go to X" written around here... and when challenged, we always get the same response: "human emotion is predictable". Well... yes, I agree, but (a) that's not what you're modelling; and (b) stop trying to manipulate it then.

Except, he didn't need to do that -- we went much higher than the current price without the wall in place.

He's just buying, the wall is getting eaten.

@ElectricMucus: The correlation only exists if you rescale both y and x axes.

It also looks like a pert breast, on it's side.

Means nothing.

the wall is doing a nice job of soaking up bear bile -- and I dare say he is getting a good deal in the process.

We made it all the way to 113 before either of the walls we see now sprang up. ;-)

Just ignore the walls... we were due an upward correction. It's not over yet.... once the people selling for $5 below market price realise that they're pissing potential profits away we can resume.

No idea really....

Traditionally Tues - Thurs are rally days....

It really depends on whether people are still unnerved by the dumpers, or whether long-term speculation can overcome the short-term speculators.

I'm reluctant to draw any conclusions until tomorrow :-)

I don't see any smart money being on a crash right now though.

Who wants to sell at 108 when people just demonstrated they were willing to pay 113?

Oh, hence the "there will be panic" remark.

See you back at 113 tomorrow...

You're doing it wrong.

Turn the chart the other way around.

(EDIT: unless I misread and you were overjoyed at the bouncing back bit)

OMG fractals

Ah right... carry on then :-)  

I was watching those sells live on Bitcoinity. It certainly looked like they were stacking up specifically trying to bring the wall down. Then as soon as the wall was gone, no more major sells...

I don't know about "manipulation", but "rationality" certainly seemed to be on the buyers' side (especially since the wall was $5 lower than the high....)

"People were just buying my wall at 107.4"

"I know, I'll drop it to 107."

Retardation. Just forget about your shorts already. It's easier that way.

There's a massive reason to buy, right there: The only way the market falls is through manipulation...

Good business sense... cheap publicity (groan). I'll visit when I'm back in the UK, if only for the novelty factor...

I'm looking forward to seeing $115 breached today... going to be fun.

Isn't the reality exactly the opposite of what you say? The price really wants to move up, but there is a huge wall preventing it?

Blinkered much?

 Yes, this has been a great opportunity to double down.

You may not know it, but your (subconscious) biases are showing through in your TA.  Why select some volume movements as "flat" (when they are going marginally up), but "down" (when they are going marginally down). See, I can draw lines to illustrate a point too:



Of course, my lines and arrows prove nothing -- other than showing that your lines and arrows prove nothing too.

In terms of volume -- in the short term, people are waiting and seeing right now. If the wall at 80 comes down, there will be a bigger buy-in, and the next volume bar will be bigger. The longer it takes, the bigger it will potentially be. Things are a bit confuised right now as the market has been put off by dumpers/manipulators all along.

That's quite debatable ;-) It was almost millpond flat for the majority of the first three months.

Buying pressure in front of big sell wall.

Looks familiar.

On behalf of bulls, thank you to all the sellers who dump in front of these walls.

Should've bought then

The price had crashed significantly (>40%) without any fundamental shift.

THEN the whole forum starts shouting about how we are going lower and "we have not seen capitulation yet".

They even started posting charts of where we "should be", where we "must go", and where they would buy in.

OK, the trend may be your friend.... but really?

LOL, watching Bitcoinity is fun.

An orchestrated "panic sell", followed by people blithely and happily continuing to buy at the normal price.

The dumpers tactics don't work any more.

Is it really a crash if it is driven by a few big players dumping?


Anyway, the market is always the same -- in both directions --  the whales set the pace, and the fish try to profit.

People are not set on keeping the price artificially low by dumping any more.

Anyway weekends are often low volume.... Real movements on volume likely wont happen until next week.

Disagree! Plenty of us bought in below the walls as it looked like the bear market was running out of steam. The market had plunged irrationally and was being held down by manipulators. It was not time to sell in anticipation of $50s... It was time to buy back.

Pretty much all of your assertions could be mirrored and used to cast doubt on the dumps that led to $60s

There's still chance to get back in. After we hit $115 things will accelerate.

The real battle will be for $115 (and then $130)... Hitting these will provide strong evidence of a longer-term reversal.

The bears who want to see the price fall know this. But just like last week, once we start moving, it'll be very hard to stop.

Have we crossed $100 1,000 times yet?

Quite right.

The truth is, no-one has any idea of the effect of the sale -- but there is no reason to assume there will be titanic shifts.

I was expecting a continuation of the uptrend for a while, but the rift between Gox and other exchanges is troubling. I think many feel the same -- hence no volume whatsoever.

I don't much trust Bitstamp either -- very odd that people are selling there at all given the gap in exchange rates, and if I understand correctly, they will be somewhat lower as  all the coins from  shorting bears on Bitfinex end up there.

At the moment, perhaps everyone is just waiting for clarity.

Bloody troll!

How much have you shorted and @ what price?

Why is it the bears shout loudest *after* a drop, and the bulls shout loudest *after* a rise?

In my mind, the more certain and arrogant a prediction is, the better off you will be by ignoring it.

(Frozenlock is OK; Rampion: variable; Blitz: pastel-coloured FUD machine)

FTFY 

Said the escort to the football team.

Actually bids and asks are fairly balanced in both directions, at least for te first $10 either way.

^ "everyone" is, are they?

Looks like bears had better watch out then.

I'd say.... sorry, "everyone would say"... the recent drop was just due to uncertainty around MtGox and the pricing gap made it unreasonable to buy right now, tipping the supply-demand balance.

Dump trucks? Not so much.

To be honest, it arguably had the opposite effect as true price discovery was inhibited.

Also, judging by volume, Gox made plenty of money off the downtrends.

Disagree completely. It means noone knows what the f* to do. My reading of the situation is that we saw the potential first signs of a bullish recovery last week. That had the potential to continue for one more leg up this week, but no-one in their right mind is going to buy in the absurd situation when there is a $10 gap between the two main exchanges, and arbitrage doesn't serve to close the gap (due to one exchange following the other's price changes).

So buying pressure reduced and the price fell -- on somewhat lower volume than previous legs down. The result is rather unconvincing and leaves the market a bit listless. Even the strongest TA adherents can't convince themselves in such a bifurcated market.

My prediction, for what it's worth (nothing) is that since now Mt Gox appears to be getting it's act together, and the exchange gap is closing, buying pressure will slowly return, and we happen to be near the bottom of a less-than-100%-convincing leg down.  You might see some anticipatory buys on Sunday.

OK, let's run with your assertion.

There are three broad groups: First, holders who haven't sold yet... If they haven't sold at $65, they're unlikely to do it at $50, $32, or whatever the fashionable number is. If forum melodrama about capitulation were going to affect them, it would have happened already.

Then there are people who sold and are waiting for cheap coins. We can assume that most of these people sold well above $100 -- many passed the bag over at $160. These people would double their holdings by getting in between $65 and now. Provided they get in in time. Sure enough, that's where the recent volume came from.

The third group is speculators who will ride each wave in either direction. For the purposes of this thought experiment, they aren't very relevant.

The subset of people who sold much lower and later is likely smaller an less significant than the above groups.

I'm not going to say for sure that the bottom is in -- markets take time to turn -- but it shouldn't be surprising to anyone if it is. The absolute certainty with which bears bay for blood after we're already more than 70% off the peak valuation just magnifies their folly, and is very similar to bulls' behaviour near the peak. The volatility has already been sufficient  to redistribute coins appropriately.

Bear in mind also that all this is against a background of increasing investment in Bitcoin infrastructure and start ups. Overall the baseline non-speculative value is constantly increasing.

+1

Just wanted to repost this so it doesn't get buried.

IMO the market moves have precisely 0 to do with S.DICE

Bear circle jerk in full force.

Spoken with such certainty.

Ridiculous and rather pathetic.

You have no evidence!

Melodrama != evidence

Sure, post a price chart. I know the price has decreased. The question is if the price is about to increase or decrease though.

I've been involved with BTC for some time actually; but that is besides the point.

Anyway, we will see who is right -- actually my point was less "It's going to the moon" and more, "you shouldn't be so certain in your predictions, you're setting yourself up for a big fall".

Additionally, I disagree that interest is fading. The indicators posted earlier lag the price -- if the price is appreciating, there will be more Google searches, more client downloads, etc. The fact that there is a hard bottom on some of the stats that is as much as 50% of the all-time peak is actually quite promising -- it sets a baseline on the non-speculative portion of the market.

I'm not sure what language you speak, but it can't be English if you believe those are accurate translations.

Again, what "overwhelming evidence"? The price has dropped a lot and so therefore must continue? Nice one, brainbox! I'm so overwhelmed I almost can't bring myself to fin

BTC velocity would have to drastically increase for single digits to be viable at this stage, IMO. At single digits, the available BTC wouldn't store enough value to be able to support payments. This is the reason you can effectively ignore the single digit argument -- Bitcoin would have to completely fail as a payment medium, or all the speculators would have to go away, in order for us to get there.

:-)

It's also why the $10K valuations aren't as ridiculous as they sound -- try plugging in, say, 10% of visa volume into the equation :-) Of course we have a Tx limit to deal with first though...

My missus (economist) was initially convinced BTC would fail simply because there aren't enough of them... 

I think it's for effect.

If you have 1k in coins, you really need fiat bad enough that you will dump them on Bitstamp at up to $10 lower than you can get them elsewhere? Doesn't ring true to me.

It's possible that this is exactly what the dumper on BitStamp was aiming for.

Easier than doing it on Mt. Gox  


Anyway looks like things might settle down for a bit -- 'stamp is oh-so-slowly climbing, and Gox is all whaled out.

That wasn't on the radar at all! Great news!

Didn't MtGox say they were hiring a comms person a few months ago?

WTF do they do? I know customers can be annoying, but at the very least, responding to posts on a public Facebook page should be a priority, even if you have nothing to report.  What is it with Bitcoin businesses thinking they are immune to basic customer service?

Even if they just constantly repeat "Unfortunately our withdrawal demand is far in excess of capacity, and some larger withdrawals are required to be held for compliance purposes. Unfortunately we cannot give any more information at this time.", it's better than just leaving posts to rot.

I've always had the same question, but for different reasons. At first I thought, maybe, something like this. However, he gushes about Ripple....

This is going to be a good week...

No, I'm serious :-)

Still early days, too early to say whether it is really illegal or not -- after all in such countries "everything not allowed is forbidden" -- and as a result laws are generally ignored.

Don't think there will be much effect.

Price is the good news.

I think it's a stretch to say they are happy about the status quo.

However they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. Plenty of people on this forum were clamouring for them to be compliant and calling them idiots for not being so.  Well, this is what compliance looks like -- they have to forge relationships with banks rather than trying to stay under the radar.

Of course, they should have done this earlier, but that's water under the bridge at this point.

IMO their biggest problem is that their communication sucks -- too old school and spinning everything. This may be a result of legal or regulatory pressure preventing them from describing the real picture, or possibly just incompetence.

I could be wrong, maybe there are more serious problems... But I doubt it.

I don't think that's strictly true -- the letter and spirit of the FinCEN regulations appears to be aimed at regulating the exchange sector, not OTC trades. It specifically states that buying and selling virtual currencies is OK, but generating and running exchange business for fiat is not.

If it is a grey area, it should be tested.

My problem with Blitz was less the predictions and more the rhetoric. I didn't consider "there will be blood" etc to be suitable for a moderator, assuming one of the agenda items of a mod might be to prevent newbies being burned by FUD. I don't think shroomsy and I were the only ones to comment on that.

Anyway, I was wrong in that assumption -- and it doesn't matter anyway. Everything looks better when you're right. :-)

I can't believe people are still pulling this stunt.

It's called panic buying.

The ask walls on 'stamp look to be very ill-advised.

Theivery!  MtGox was one of the few exchanges going out of their way to be compliant with AML and KYC. I hope the money gets reunited with its rightful owners.

Chinese go to bed in 8 hours, busiest part of the day yet to come.

All fun and games

This is not true at all.

Don't be taken in.

The price movements are all down to the 0% fee

We'll probably go through $200 a hundred times..... just like we did at $100. Actually any form of consolidation above $150 would be pretty awesome long-term.

This isn't actually true. The regulations are aimed at exchanges and " currency creators" ( miners) , not normal businesses who accept BTC.

It went from 2100 to 2600 within a couple of hours though. Absolutely crazy. Everyone was screaming "sell". You know tops when you see them.

We're getting quite a bit of arbitrage from Westerners too; overseas wires are cheap and fast, but a limited resource.

I PMed you. You basically need contacts willing to use their personal 50K USD conversion. The problem is, people willing can just arb the gap themselves.

There seems to be a rough price / volume divergence still.

It helps... but it was never that hard to get money into China. It's getting it out that has always been the problem. Bitcoin can certainly help though. I'm not sure how much in demand USD are these days... but people do always need to buy things overseas.

I don't think it is orchestrated, but I think you are underestimating how the 0 fee changes behaviour. You buy, wait for a tiny rise, sell, wait, buy... etc.... you can make money but tend to want to lock it in very quickly. As a result ,the "volume" is massively exaggerated, when in fact it is relatively little BTC changing hands.... but makes for a very exciting and addictive game of pass the bag.

This is single-handedly responsible for the "China effect".

How many times now have we heard that BTC China has a "coin shortage" on the exchange? Ahem...

Must be true, cos I drew lines.

Crash is still bullshit while we're still up week on week.

This could go on for a long time

The drop in China will be spectacular when it comes. They're really betting against gravity.

Great fake wall of China  

Cool

I'll consider  buying some off you at 266

I think you are forgetting that we've only been above 266 for 3 short weeks.

This was all already priced in by the time the hearing started.  *never* buy on news.

Remember all the good news we had in April too? Actually the FinCEN guidance was largely viewed as bullish when it was released too, accompanied by relatively positive talks by government officials. But it was manipulated to fit the bear narrative. This government approach is nothing new.

The truth is, we rose too fast.  Still way up week on week. Medium term, we can't rise at this pace, and need to correct. We have a fair way down to go yet.  

A properly encrypted wallet stored on a few LUKS encrypted USB keys is the best bet IMO. Higher up the priority list is obviously, using a secure operating system, and only doing sane things on the computer you use for encryption.

Anyway, as to your original question: You're asking the wrong question. The real question should be, when do you start buying again in order to dollar cost average. My opinion -- we have a long way to go down yet. Initial bounce was to $500. We'll likely see a floor of half that, briefly. So anything above $300 isn't all that attractive right now.

Agreed, it's not this simple. Of course the bubble didn't run out due to lack of fiat! People need to have logical consistency. During the rise everyone was proclaiming "We can't crash, there are too many exchanges, they can't all fail!". Now the same group of people are shouting "All the exchanges are out of fiat!". It doesn't make any sense.

Look at China: Fiat to the exchanges in under 5 minutes, but buying is subdued. The crash isn't because of "lack of fiat", it's because "areyoumotherfuckinginsaneitjustrose1700%"!

Boring period incoming. Thank Bitcoin -- chance to focus on your family over Christmas instead of checking the price every 20 seconds.

Futures are 500 kuai lower and likely to fall further. BTC looking risky, lots of people will be looking to arb the gap with Bitstamp instead and bide their time.

I'm a big fan of white tea (Chinese) from Fujian. it's been dried less, so there's even more goodies than in green tea.

Not sure about calm -- plenty of caffiene, but it certainly makes you more alive. There's a reason the British empire was built on tea imports.

I'll send some for 0.01BTC + p&p

Hack?

China futures are trading around Y3500, a full Y1500 lower than BTCChina price.

It's only a matter of time. As soon as bitstamp sort their banking out, the gap will crumble.

There's a lower underlying trend line. Expect to bounce off that.

waiting a while for our wire to go through at Bitstamp. my deposit seems to have cancelled itself, which is odd. My wires are usually dead fast. Looking on China QQ, a bunch of people planned to arb the gap with profits too, but can't. Quite a few people complaining.

Why are people so eager to call a bottom?

As you say, it's only been 1.5 days.

Whoever is on the dumping side, will keep on dumping until (a) people stop buying back because they are out of ammo; or (b) they run out of ammo themselves.

The question is: "Do you feel lucky?"

And the dumper, if they still have ammo, will profit more.

China futures at Y3316.17

Chinese arbitraging.

Send wires. Every chinese national is entitled to $50k / year conversion.

Me too, nearly $20k missing. They're having "bank trouble"

EMAs just crossed on 4H timescale.

Bots going to wake up and sell?

We've only been above $400 for a few short days. The correction isn't over.

Agree. FWIW, I'm seeing more BTC moving than fiat. Very few actually managed to cash out at $900, and Christmas is coming. If this is a bull trap, it could take us back to $750 though -- some people will get to lose their shirts twice.

"Look at the Chinese buying so many BTC".

Ahem.

Agree. The writing's on the wall. Also the perspective from China now is the price is high and this is risky, but easy (albeit small) profits still exist to arbitrage with bitstamp. That's why so many buy orders are appearing there. I know lots of people (including myself) still waiting for wires to clear.


The trend will still follow gox, but prices will converge.

bids and asks are really irrelevant in these uncertain times. They are very fluid.

he said, looking down?

Bitcoin is being remarkably forgiving today -- a beautifully formed crash and subsequent bull trap peak, on lower volume. Get off at this station for some light refreshments before the moon shot. The next station is way back, and on fire.

If you think this is a healthy precursor to a bull run, be my guest, but don't say I didn't warn you.

In fact the tape has been painted all the way up. Just go with the flow. There's no exuberance here, just a dream of what might have been.

This place is like an assylum for tourettes sufferers sometimes..... Lots of people running around randomly shouting "BOTTOM" at every opportunity.

All your bottoms are dumping.

+1

This is far from healthy. One week ago -- only 7 days ago, we were at $400. And now we are on the wrong side of what will look to many like a big bubble peak and subsequent bull trap.

Maybe the reason it's like that is because you're not the only one 

Sorry, I don't want to see a mass adoption bubble right now. Too early. I'd rather have 5-figure coins in the future than a mad gold rush now and millions of Chinese losing their shirts in a massive bubble.

If everyone finds out at once, that is your cue to exit. I'd rather have a few more years of slow 10x growth first.

BTW CCTV news and radio is already running segments advising people not to buy bitcoins, that it is too risky. This is the start. If people do lose their shirts in  a massive "choo choo to 2k" bubble and subsequent pop, it will be a very long winter -- and the excuse the government here needs to regulate.

Call me greedy, but a 2k cash grab isn't really what I want for bitcoin. I was hoping for bigger things. Double top at $900 is probably the best scenario right now.

A good crash now, test *real* support, let the exchanges work on improving some more and some more infrastructure being put in place, and we can be very wealthy early adopters. Alternative is 50% or more of us get shafted in a few weeks.

Dump every time mania gets out of control. Eventually sentiment turns. Dangerous game though.

It's Monday here. Market is asleep.

On this tiny volume, nothing is support. I'd put support down somewhere around $765 now -- not too low. The lack of real dumps yesterday made me bullish. The lack of real buying pressure makes me bearish now.

With the warnings in the press in China, China's waiting for a signal from Gox to move up. Gox is waiting for a signal from China. This likely won't end that well.

+1 we haven't had a real crash for a long time.

Miners, y u no sell?

(They will eventually)

I think the somewhat negative CCTV coverage is having an effect in China.

There have been several reports on the radio and TV about the "bitcoin phenomenon", they have been quite widespread. The messaging is that bitcoin is extremely volatile and risky, and they do not advise investors to enter.

Obviously they are most concerned about this escalating into a gold rush and causing destabilisation.

Not terribly negative, but it should help to make the market more rational.

Exactly that.

This is just wishful thinking. The only thing the leaders care about is stability and maintaining power. They absolutely do not want to see anything that could threaten this.

Put it this way: We are considering adding a big red popup on our website stating that we do not advise people to buy BTC, for our own safety.

On one hand, I agree with you long-term. On the other, they are dead right. You only have to browse these forums on the vertical rise days and see the mania. The rise is driven 100% by speculation in China, and will fall hard if it continues -- only a matter of time. Damping the flames and triggering a recession now is absolutely the smart thing to do. I say this in the best interest of our future wealth -- a meltdown and ensuing over-reactionary regulation is not what we want.

The vast majority of our friends (not techies or by any means "early adopters") were not interested in investing at $60, they were bored of us and our Bitcoin rambling.

Now that we're at $800 and Bitcoin is in the media, they are desperate to buy. If they all do, we will shoot up to $2000 or $3000 -- I absolutely agree with the bulls. However, be careful what you wish for. We may well crash in a blaze of glory, and most will be burned. TBH I have much higher hopes for bitcoin. Something that appreciates more sensibly  year-on-year is much more valuable to all of us. $3000+ by the end of next year, for example would be very exciting. $500 and restrictive BTC regulation in China -- not so much.

Sure, $3000 then $50. Most will cash out at the latter.

Or should we paint an alternative picture?

Remember, the pictures are painted by the big holders, not (only) the new money coming in.

That chart is misleading. Their high was more like 7,000.

One thing is for sure: These sideways markets really fuck with your mind.

When I see Y5300 in China and shit myself when it goes down to Y4900, I try to remember that it is the same as $53 to $49

$2200 by Christmas!

yeah, meanwhile everyone else has decided $800 is the floor. Trading is a losing game at this point unfortunately.

If someone is desperate to sell it to you for bitcoin, it is probably real. Gold isn't doing too well at the moment.

If they don't care too much, it's probably fake.