All posts made by jonat3 in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 3730399 (copy this link) (by jonat3) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
Lol, I must admire the ones dumping their coins at the moment and how they take advantage of human psychology. Moments like these, right before a psychological treshold, are the only moments that people with significant BTC holdings can safely monetize them without affecting the exchange rate too much. I keep getting an image of one person feeding the fishes, that gleefully and mindlessly jump up out of the water in order to eat the bread crumbs.
Not that I would ever sell my BTC though. I'm a true believer.
2.
Post 3731127 (copy this link) (by jonat3) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
I think most people missed the boat on LTC. The smart investors realized that LTC would grow, because currencies that are new can have the most gains in the shortest amount of time, so they bought in early (not to mention that LTC is marketed as BTC's silver). Just look at BTC. A 5000% growth in one year time. BTC will never achieve that performance again in the coming years. Perhaps a 20x growth, but the growth in percentages will keep going down over time.
Because of this enormous growth in the early stages, people will be incentivized to buy coins that are still in the cents or 1 dollar range. Those coins have the possibility of achieving growth gains that are in the thousands of percentages. But right now, LTC is 20 dollars. I think its max market cap will be 500 dollars, because it doesn't give any real advantages over BTC and will thus remain a speculative instrument mostly. Those growth gains can be easily achievable with BTC, since I'm positive that we are in between the innovator phase and the early adopter phase.
It might still be worth a shot, because there are rumors that Mt. Gox will implement LTC, which will greatly increase its legitimacy. But it's up to merchants to adopt LTC besides BTC. As long as they don't do that, LTC's market cap will be limited and its growth will only depend on speculative interest.
Right now, it might be worth looking for the next candidate after LTC, the one that has the best chance after LTC and that's still in the cents stage. If it can be ascertained for sure which is the best third coin, it would almost be a given that growth percentages of above 1000% and more will be achievable due to sheer speculative greed.
3.
Post 3731160 (copy this link) (by jonat3) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
I think most people missed the boat on LTC. The smart investors realized that LTC would grow, because currencies that are new can have the most gains in the shortest amount of time, so they bought in early (not to mention that LTC is marketed as BTC's silver). Just look at BTC. A 5000% growth in one year time. BTC will never achieve that performance again in the coming years. Perhaps a 20x growth, but the growth in percentages will keep going down over time.
Because of this enormous growth in the early stages, people will be incentivized to buy coins that are still in the cents or 1 dollar range. Those coins have the possibility of achieving growth gains that are in the thousands of percentages. But right now, LTC is 20 dollars. I think its max market cap will be 500 dollars, because it doesn't give any real advantages over BTC and will thus remain a speculative instrument mostly. Those growth gains can be easily achievable with BTC, since I'm positive that we are in between the innovator phase and the early adopter phase.
It might still be worth a shot, because there are rumors that Mt. Gox will implement LTC, which will greatly increase its legitimacy. But it's up to merchants to adopt LTC besides BTC. As long as they don't do that, LTC's market cap will be limited and it's growth will only depend on speculative interest.
Right now, it might be worth looking for the next candidate after LTC, the one that has the best chance after LTC and that's still in the cents stage. If it can be ascertained for sure which is the best third coin, it would almost be a given that growth percentages of above 1000% and more will be achievable due to sheer speculative greed.
Speculative interest is all that is driving Bitcoin. Well that and Satoshi dice.
It's a feedback loop. Speculative interest is fueling merchant adoption, which in turn fuels speculative interest. But the fact that there's merchant adoption is significant. It's gone way beyond just speculative interest, though it does remain the main source of growth right now. Ironically enough, I don't think BTC or any other free market coin would have ever succeeded without speculative interest.
4.
Post 3731227 (copy this link) (by jonat3) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
I think most people missed the boat on LTC. The smart investors realized that LTC would grow, because currencies that are new can have the most gains in the shortest amount of time, so they bought in early (not to mention that LTC is marketed as BTC's silver). Just look at BTC. A 5000% growth in one year time. BTC will never achieve that performance again in the coming years. Perhaps a 20x growth, but the growth in percentages will keep going down over time.
Because of this enormous growth in the early stages, people will be incentivized to buy coins that are still in the cents or 1 dollar range. Those coins have the possibility of achieving growth gains that are in the thousands of percentages. But right now, LTC is 20 dollars. I think its max market cap will be 500 dollars, because it doesn't give any real advantages over BTC and will thus remain a speculative instrument mostly. Those growth gains can be easily achievable with BTC, since I'm positive that we are in between the innovator phase and the early adopter phase.
It might still be worth a shot, because there are rumors that Mt. Gox will implement LTC, which will greatly increase its legitimacy. But it's up to merchants to adopt LTC besides BTC. As long as they don't do that, LTC's market cap will be limited and it's growth will only depend on speculative interest.
Right now, it might be worth looking for the next candidate after LTC, the one that has the best chance after LTC and that's still in the cents stage. If it can be ascertained for sure which is the best third coin, it would almost be a given that growth percentages of above 1000% and more will be achievable due to sheer speculative greed.
Speculative interest is all that is driving Bitcoin. Well that and Satoshi dice.
It's a feedback loop. Speculative interest is fueling merchant adoption, which in turn fuels speculative interest. But the fact that there's merchant adoption is significant. It's gone way beyond just speculative interest, though it does remain the main source of growth right now. Ironically enough, I don't think BTC or any other free market coin would have ever succeeded without speculative interest.
Would you care to venture a guess as to the daily Bitcoin transaction volume for goods and services?
I have no idea, though I've read reports that transactions do keep increasing, even though BTC is a deflationary currency. I should probably look into how they obtained those numbers.
And I keep reading every article out there. Bitpay and the like claim that transactions are increasing and I do see a news article pop up every day with merchants accepting. It looks like the growth really is genuine. IMO, the exchange rate will never permanently crash, unless the encryption has been hacked. Not even miners colluding will take it down.
5.
Post 3736833 (copy this link) (by jonat3) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.29h):
It won't crash. Bitcoin has been like the dogtrainer of Pavlov. Surely, but slowly, people are being conditioned to be bulls. Also, the people that have the most BTC (and thus the largest leverage) have those holdings for a reason. Most of them are anarchists, Libertarians and computer scientists. They know the system we have is truly rotten to the core. And because they know that, they won't ever allow BTC to crash. It's because the core of BTC consists of these kinds of people (who have the largest leverage), that BTC has been one giant super conditioning machine, where the bull army keeps getting larger and larger. Right now, the price stays stable right now, because on the one hand, the bull army is very large, while on the other hand, some people with a large stock of BTC holdings want to monetize on their BTC and times like these (right before a pshychological treshold) are the only safe times where they can do so without affecting the exchange rate too much. These people with large BTC holdings are not interested in crashing the price, because their own stock would lower in value.
Eventually, the stalemate will be resolved, because the bull army (atleast, their generals with the largest leverage) knows that that stock can't last forever. Once past 1000 dollars it will explode upwards.
6.
Post 3747521 (copy this link) (by jonat3) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
where are the bids on stamp and btc-e?
seems everyone is waiting for a crash or sleeping?
I think because people need time to transfer the funds to Bitstamp. People focused on bringing down the walls on mt. gox and now they need some time to switch gears. Some of the money is flowing to altcoins as well.
7.
Post 3747994 (copy this link) (by jonat3) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.30h):
Lol, this reminds me of goldbugs being utterly disgusted with BTC bugs. I guess people just can't help it. May I remind you fellas that competition is a good thing and that it would be in the best interest for the world if LTC did relatively well? If BTC's encryption gets broken or some other fatal bug pops up, we need a plan B to fall back on and that candidate is most likely LTC. It does nobody any good if LTC's growth is stunted and nobody invests any programming time, energy and money in it. With no proper coin to fall back on, we are just too vulnerable.
8.
Post 3998308 (copy this link) (by jonat3) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.39h):
Will probably correct some more, but I'm not selling. We all know BTC's ultimate potential. In the end there will be less major price drops, because there will be widespread consensus about its possibilities. That means that people will not be prone to panic selling. I'm not selling. By doing that, the ultimate endgame scenario needs one person less in order to come to fruition.
9.
Post 3998549 (copy this link) (by jonat3) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.40h):
China going down slowly. Not sure if I should buy back or not
Last crash played out over 2 days ( dec5-7 almost in to 8 ) however the low was hit about 24hrs from the first drop.. I sold at 870 had I waited 24 hrs I was laughing got back in much earlier and saved myself some stress but lost future profits.
With that being said analyze the information you have.. and find a re-entry point(at a gain and loss) that seems reasonable since I believe you already sold.
Either way you need to find a reason
why you think the crash slides, drops or ends.
Yes I sold at the bottom @650 and would be happy if I only could get my coins back. I had 35 coins before I registered here in the forum. With listening to some people here I panic sold so many times. With a loss of 4 BTC´s. And now I panic sold again because people here were writing it is the end, adam was even crying. So I sold all at the bottom. Looks like its better to move the coins to a wallet and forget the forum here.
Just have some patients and you will get your coins back and then some...
This is just the first dead cat bounce
Agreed. I think the current price is close to the price Bitcoin would have had (following the trendline) if China had never entered the game. Price may get a bit lower, because people always panic a bit more than the situation warrants, but ultimately even if the price dips 100 dollars more, it would mean that all expectations of China will have been bled out of the system. Bitcoin can then continue to grow on with normal expectations restored.