Talk about no selling pressure. 2k BTC down to $110, and none of that 18k BTC between $113-$120 is interested?

No one is in a rush to buy, no one is in a rush to sell. We've found a price everyone can disagree on.

I dunno what you are talking about, I personally prefer to buy high sell low - it keeps everyone else happy

It very well could.  Exposure brings people into learning about Bitcoin.  As they learn more, they can either begin to embrace some of the principles or reject them.  Either way, they move from simply looking for a huge ROI by taking a risk in something speculative and into a deeper connection to what Bitcoin really is.  When this happens, it will be possible for Bitcoin to be viewed as a safe, store of value possibly even regarded safer than gold.  It's all possible but there is still a loooong ways to go.

So as not to get lost of the original point, I don't believe current world market conditions have much affect on Bitcoin at this time and thus is not a good indicator on whether Bitcoin prices rise or fall.

It's not like anyone was trading anyway.

Thanks God I don't live in the US.

Just wow, after what a few bears told us was bad news, we are basically back to yesterday's level. 116 Dollars now!

Yes and by EMA curves, it seems that the price is starting to recover quickly after a fall

Bitstamp! Don't tell me your down now...

y u do this

edit: well that was quick. Man, are we really going to rally now?

lol

this week is going to be fun.....

150 b4 Wednesday 

Yep, someone with 2,5k btc needs more bitcoins it seems, never is enought. He would rebuy in a few hours at a loss if no more bears follow his play (i hope  )

Testing again $125 is expected (if I weren't all in ATM I would place a bid at $125.79 or similar), but I don't think we will break $125. If we don't break it, is bullish sign. If we break-it, is definitely short term bearish.

I just hope we see a spike in volume in the next hours. It's really getting lower and lower on Gox.

It has to be?

Highest volume in a week
Drew a line...

TA should have told him that the best point to sell was yesterday at $133, to then rebuy at $125ish, as per here (price was $133 at that point):


What the TA cannot tell you is: will we test again $125? I think yes, but impossible to know reading TA. We will break it? I think not, but it's 50/50 chance. Anyhow, as I love coins more than fiat, I wouldn't sell again the coins bought back at $125ish.

yes, that made my sell order @129,495 go through

Account verifications it's a bad joke.

When I worked with epassporte I made a debit card with my cat name on it. Same with my LR account (I had 50 cents there , damn FBI).

Today's or short term outlook?

pros off on break and weekend traders on the rise.

if the pros leave the boat...

wow wtf why is bitstamp this expensive?

^^ Nah. Just time to give up using .com domains. And buy namecoins maybe 

Ok I put mine at 53.85! Who's going to give more?

I agree!,
I think consolidation has already ended at least at these low prices it has, so i'm predicting 180 within 2 weeks.
I don't think we can make a new all time high so soon, but i do think we can get to 180 and stay in that range + - 10%

I don't believe we're in a real bubble deflation phase anymore. The higher lows trend has actually not been broken yet. If you look carefully at the charts the only real 'lows' post-crash are 50, 79 and 88 (the most recent one). To falsify the 'we're only in a correction' hypothesis we need to break below 88 again and then 79.

Just broke through 105.  I have a feeling this rally is going to go on for several hours.

Yes, 110$ is ahead.

Only 10k to $110. Not exactly too difficult to achieve.

With all the speculators on this forum claiming to have sold out waiting for 50, it was pretty obvious we weren't going anywhere near there (barring a major news event that causes a fundamental price re-eval).  But the prevailing bearish sentiment is still pushing the price down.  But at the same time, China is still building demand and it looks like the USG has completed its roundup of non-compliant sites...

Soon we will be in a situation where the incumbent speculators are going to be fighting the newcomers for coins  .  

But is today's breakout the beginning?

Take a look at the volume for the past week and note the transition from sell-to-buy, starting right after the dump from 110:
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Why do you need a wall if the price is going up?
Lets see if the price remains >108 if the wall is pulled.

180 in 8 business days 

Wallzilla being chewed ATM, seems legit

Crazy whales buying +$500k in coins at $108 when they could buy below $100? What's up with them? What are they smoking?

There is a nice situation at BTC-E:



Nobody wants to sell, everybody wants to buy  

$180 is a running joke on this thread, not a serious prediction.  You never know though...

Its interesting. Coins are fleeing gox but the asks are holding huge at 115-120. If they drop or get bought we could see a big rally.

Whatever this image is, it's being blocked by my company's web filter as a virus has been found on the website. Just so you know.

MAL/HTMLGen-A

6 business days left!  

502 Bad Gateway here

I think it's quite obvious where we're heading : into the crash zone.


$20-$30 Bitcoins here we come.

If Litecoin comes down to $2 or even lower I'll load up with them.

works for me

I get the feeling that Bitstamp is much less manipulated than Gox. In particular considering that crazy movement with quick book correction there after early today.

This doesn't look good and hasn't for days. So, the movement earlier today is all the more suspicious. Anything more regarding that?

I suspect EUR book activity.

That is much more pronounced than on the chart I posted. Either way, we should have a move to the downside. In my chart it would be a correction but the break below 100 could start a stampede.

Are we meeting some price resistance? What does candlestick charts says? is they are going to have some see saw swing? is price going to taper off ? now is $97.4009

Did you guys realized that there are only $511k in Bitstamp's order book?

When the exodus of coins from MtGox started after the Dwolla situation, many in here said that fiat was following too, but that it would have taken time as it slower to move. Well, absolute maximum fiat on Bitstamp after Dwolla was $1.1m, and now is less than half of it. Fiat is really leaving Bitcoin for good, as expected.

To give a little bit of context, the ratio between fiat on Bitstamp and Gox has consistently been 1:20. When we had $1M on Bitstamp, we had aprox. $20M on Gox. Now we have $511k on Bitstamp and $11M on Gox.

Gox is still the leading exchange for a reason. Expect a bear in which you will see much less "Bitcoin is a ponzi" talk compared to 2011, but a lot more "OMG the government thugs are coming after us, seizing all our money and eventually locking us up in Guantanamo".

Anyhow, the negative sentiment needs to be MUCH stronger in order to reach the real bottom, which I still hope it will be $50ish. I won't be surprised by $30-$50, I will be puzzled if we go below $30, and quite disappointed if we go below $20.

Anyhow, fasten your seat belts - its going to be a bumpy ride (gif expected, come on guys!)

Asks / bids on Bitstamp is really pessimistic...

We will see $100 again before we see $89 on MtGox

But it looks very weak..

I won't chance it. Watching the tape, the sells are just too big relative to the buys. It seems like we have regular guys buying and some really heavy sellers selling. I won't risk that. Yes, technically, I say bounce, but watching the tape, they are not hiding the sell sizes very well. It seems almost orchestrated.

I'll let the market calm down a bit before re-entering...

Back to current price, I missed the last bounce. I had my highest bid at $91ish, didn't got filled, so I pulled it to try to play the future bounce at $88ish. Dangerous games, but you gotta have fun

I'm really still learning to go with what I "feel" deeply and what the chart is sort of telling me. I'm not ready to jump in. I totally believe you though. It is a skill or art to know this (short term vs long trading and such). Way back when (internet bubble) I could look at a candlestick chart and just interpret sooo much from it. BTC doesn't speak to me like that. I don't trust what I'm seeing in just the chart alone. The market data adds a layer (and yet it is manipulated often) that we/I use.

Again, watch the sizes of the sells. I'm sure they will adjust them to hide them better but right now and for the last few weeks, the sell sizes have been noticeably bigger than the buys. I get the feeling like someone is playing us. So, no matter what the chart looks like, I don't trust it - go deeper. (BTW - If anyone knows of some way to monitor the size of sells relative to buys, I'm all ears.) The timestamp is key here also. (e.g. - You can see one seller put out a sale via a program and try to break it down, but it is all the same to the second, quite obvious. Nothing before or after it, stands out.)

Something a great great friend and teacher taught me:
Everything is data. Don't try to interpret the data. Just observe the data. No matter what you are talking about. So, with BTC, look at the charts, look at the posts, look at the USD, economy, banking, even esoteric things, etc. It is all data - don't judge it. Don't manipulate or organize the data. Just observe it. (Watching the matrix may help  )That is hard as we are conditioned unconsciously to see things a certain way. Anyway, as I said before, if you can separate some of the more emotional parts (they are data - not wrong or right - you have to find out how true), from the mind, intuition, etc and develop an overall picture... Well, that is pretty powerful. But if you really get there, I don't think you (I), would be here. eheheh But you can sort of taste it as it comes your way. Grasshopper goes...

Funny, was just going to post this and see you (Phoenix1) curious - just a coincidence if you believe in them.

I'm not going to play any bounces right yet. I'm going to see if any rally takes us through the 100 day EMA. We just crossed (under 10 day EMA) for the first time in a looooong time.
The 20 day or so EMA hasn't crossed and to be honest I have just played around with the 10 and 100 day - don't know that it is an accepted method.
The 10 day SMA has crossed under the 10 day EMA (slightly bearish) and that is accepted so I will still wait and look for strong confirmation of a reversal.

Regarding the hourly candles - well, the 4 and 1 hour are not doing anything and even the 15 min charts look the same. $100 is a key psychological barrier. And even if we break it, do we stay
above it for long? Next few days will be interesting and I'm curious is our WE dumper (and perhaps rescuer) re-appears.

The charts are eerily similar.

We really are due for a breakout of said triangle. I would not be surprised if we breakout within three days.

According to your graph, starting in December 2013, people start paying you in USD to take their bitcoins?

I like that. Looks like a peak of -33USD/BTC in June 2014.

Ill take anyone's bitcoins at 0USD/EA, right now and thru Dec. 1 2013. Take advantage of this HOT deal while it lasts.

Send them here: 14YDg2knHWoYaDZpUFvuQfFP7kUpPpYL83

You're welcome.

I want to say there is a bounce coming as things are oversold, but divergences with volume and price are pretty reliable indicators so far. (And even if we bounce, the more time we spend below 100 the more it acts as resistance imo.)

Look at what happens when we go up on lower volume than the day before. It is a KEY sign in trading, quite reliable most of the time.

Let's see how today plays out but I'm still guessing down from here over the next few days:

Looks like the sucker rally is stalling. Even for a Sunday this is low volume.

Looking back at a year ago did you really care if you bought at $5, $6, or $7? A year ago the 100 day average was around $5.50.

Buying today with the 100 day average around $115 and worrying if I buy at $100 which is 15% below or $90 which is 22% below or $80 which is 30% below doesn't really matter much to me. All these prices are amazing deals.

I believe the fundamentals are great and that's why I'm buying.

Look at how much time the price of BTC has spent under the 100 day moving average.... Then look at how much time it has spent at < 10% below that average. In my opinion by waiting to buy you are risking way too much. There are, let me say, "more then a handful" of people waiting for a very limited amount of coins at a "cheap" price.

What tool do you use for this?

A bear doesn't talk big bear words on the forums if he hasn't already sold.

A lot of bear talk lately => a lot of people are short => ...

It's happening right now, lets see if it breaks 90 today.

Without looking at the market depth (just the chart), $87 is the first stop, then $80.
$80 is a bounce I might play but generally I'm looking for a real bottom, but we are probably months from that...

Oops, yes. I meant if we broke through 90...
I think $82ish is the magic number below 90...

I think tradingview is frozen...
Price there is still showing 93.5 to me.
With the real price (91.5), the triangle is broken...

*enters the room wild-eyed, clothes ripped and gasping for air*

Did you not hear my cries for help?! I was stuck in that damn BTC-e trollbox for 4 weeks. 4 whole weeks dammit!

I felt like Stephen Hawking in a classroom full of prepubescent windowlickers, all of them trying to stab each other in the back for a $20 profit.

No amount of money is worth suffering that again, I'll trade LTC once it hits Gox and not a moment sooner.

My sanity, oh my precious sanity.

Oh, I like what you've done with the furniture...

*wanders off*

You say that as if it were a bad thing? lol

I love trolling BTCe gives me something to do when trading.

Is todays low in? Or has it only started?

It seems like we either close in the high 80s or in the mid 90s.. 89/90/91/92/93 are too "controversial"

...tasty.

sell at $180

down trend won't last forever and now that you noticed it, its almost over...   

^^ This
Too many people think low 80's is a good place to buy, so either we don't get there or we slice straight through it ...
Given the triangle breakout, my money is on down HARD

Unbelievably, there are still a few morons doing 100+ buys right now.

How stupid can you be?

Cant wait to see them get burnt.

If you redraw that with the lower line touching May 15th and June 9th lows I think it would give clearer idea of where we are heading - your choice of lower boundary seems rather arbritrary

Appreciate the chart anyway   just saying

God, I'm tired of watching this! Someone just PM me when it's time to buy. lol

Now I don't trust ya. Lol  driving its hard to respond.  

... Only a cheerleader just wants to hear things that make them feel better.

If 88$ is broken then where we stop? Too bored to make it a new poll topic...

Disclaimer: I am out of BTC but I don't want it to continue dropping like this because I want buy ASICs (again)..

Damn, that's scary. 

Shit,

I had my buy order at $88.68. The low was at 88.75. I missed the price by $0.07

 

88.011 ... it's ok, were doing fine

1.25k buys on bitstamp and mtgox? Weird. Almost at the same time.

Bitstamp just lost like all of its ask depth xD

Stabilization? It's almost 10% down today and last dip was hour ago (well, that one was 10%). How the hell any chart can call show that as stabilization?  

Well, I obviously don't have idea what's going to happen or I'd be millionaire already but right now it's bearish pretty much. We'll see where it will end.. 85/86 walls are first line of defence now.

Im starting to worry we might see a wallzilla, from the bid end.

I hope a seller surprises me

What does the green line signify, and how did you calculate it?

Large walls were appearing right about current market rate again and again on this today's dip. Now large walls are propping up the price again.

Hard to analyse technicals when such market manipulation is rampant.

After such a drop, you can imagine some trepidation. Let confidence come back to the masses and we will be back above 100 before you know it.

14k BTC dump and we are at 81 - that shows the direction

That brought things back down quick. Notice the volume.

Exactly, if it is a "floor" with no buys coming through then I am not impressed. It seems like just another silence before the storm.
But again, we are on levels where we could bounce violently. But I don't feel like gambling...

I bought late last night, and now i wake up to cheaper coins!  

yup going to buy some more!

I love down trends

I just get the feeling a big seller is waiting around the corner...

havelock is being DDOSED this time... I want to Buy....

It's all relative, 6:18 am July 4th here

definitely time to buy...

no

we're hitting a key support, post count on this thread is crazy high, all bearish comments ...expect me...   time to buy guys its trend reversal 

Hmmm a string of size 20.0 lining up on the 78.xx.

Some bumps in the road to meet with the size 916 wall at 78.0.

yes yes yes.

It looks like a bnounce but in a very dangerous zone. Small probability to increase by more than 3% (around $ 84-85) and a big threat drop back below 76...

It could be a trap to buy high and sell low....

here comes another dump. fingers crossed it goes lower than my stupid sale this morning. sorry guys!

Small bounce seems to be over. How low do we go until next one? And how fast? Do we see 60's in 24h?

You're just drawing arbitrary supports and resistances, where none of them have been tested, especially the support you drew. You can draw lines from everywhere on a chart, and many of them will function as a support or resistance from time to time, but more often than not, these supports and resistances will be broken. You should only use supports and resistances as buying and selling points, not for wishful thinking. Yet where supports and resistances are is key for determining patterns, such as descending triangles, falling wedges, etc. Again, they have to bounce to be considered a possible support or resistance.

Bitstamp still isn't breaking $80, bearish sign.

ITT: Everyone started believing the bears and shorted. Price rallying on low volume and people are worried for their shorts. 

Panic? No chance. It could drop to 40 and I would count my Bitcoins

69.9. 

hmmm do i buy a lil more now or later...

1500BTC ask wall at 70 on bitstamp. Bitstamp is leading the down move. mtgox won't have any option but to follow behind.

This will go lower on both exchanges, and fast...

i'm buying again

Bitstamp 10 min:  high: 72.56      low: 63.26 

I think the down move is excellerating....
It is called... THE QUICKENING!  

I am thinking that 50 is not going to hold as a bottom (but might be a bounce point. It is just too psychological of a number). We have to see how the volume plays out though. That is probably key imo.

Daily RSI has closed below 30 (oversold) multiple times now confirming the bear market and confirming a trending mode. Check out what happened conversely the last time the RSI has stuck in overbought:

I'm sorry but this is extremely short-sighted and worthy of someone with 0 trading knowledge.
We're talking profit here. Even for long bulls, more USD means more BTC. It's as simple as that. Whether you like it or not, he now has 1500 USD worth of extra BTC.
Being a long bull DOES NOT mean you have take every loss that BTC goes through. There will ALWAYS be times when having more USD is the better way to have more BTC.

Not this shit again...

ALARM ALARM! We are going to 0!

P.s. I bought back in at 70. We are overdue a sucker rally/dead cat bounce.

Not true.
Daddy Loozik bought his coins at $66.666 yesterday. Then he visited his girlfriend and fucked her. He was NOT freaking the fuck out neither to buy nor to fuck  

Why is the spread opening up again?

Is the market doing something new?
It seems to be crabbing sideways at $68. Just as the recent peak at $136 was a flat-top with no volume spike. Maybe it is having a flat-bottom at this current level.

Agreed. Also agree 'wot no bounce' looks bad as does spiking number of coins on offer
Question is when is the capitulation, and what happens between now and then
I highly doubt we will be seeing the final capitualtion any time soon, but we may make a new low on this move before it ends.
Time will tell ...

It can take a while. Weeks. Months. It's coming though.

Perhaps Blightcoin being introduced on MtGox will deliver the final blow to BTCUSD.

Just saw about 3000BTC get pulled off the buy walls to 62.

yeah... but....
atm: 69.0
1000 coins up -> 69.9
1000 coins down -> 66.9
 

If people are expecting the price to only fall to $30, we are only about double that now.

How bad would you feel if you had bought at $4 instead of $2 at the end of the last crash? Sure, you would have double the money at $2, but you could have bought in at a lot worse time than $4.

Just saying...

Maybe what both those overbought indicators indicate.

Someone want to make a prediction for tomorrow or the day after?

If I'm reading the candle stick charts correctly (and I believe I am) this bounce came out of the blue and all at once it either from a collective working together at a predetermined time or someone with deep pockets trying to double up their investment. Kinda day trader-ish.

Oh, ok.
I still think that $57 will be the bottom though.

i still just see this..    ignoring the wierd buys..

indeed
to me, this crash is more like a bigger version of the priate40 crash at 16 down to 7
it was very violent a drop, and it went and touched bottom with the first knife
the huge bull trap
the slow slide down
the rebound above the low of the init. crash
now if we only wait a few months, if the pattern hold we be up 1,000%  

Prepare for the price to:
a) go slightly above 72
then
b) drop quickly to 70.40 - 70.60
Next the train will leave the station heading north.

lol @ manipulative wall at 73.959

This way any sells appear as buys on bitstamp.

Regardless, interesting moment.. do we go up from here? Or is some whale going to take a dump? Or even a whale bring us to 90 in one swoop?

Not falling for it with this mini rally.

We are in for a few months of downtime and sideways movement before anything substantial occurs.

I'd say 2-3 months of sideways at the bottom.

"Bottoms" do not last for a weekend....use your brains people.

Good idea

it looks like on the 74 we do not have power yet???

When everyone was bullish, if the market went down, it was manipulation.

When everyone is bearish, if the market goes up, it's manipulation.

 

Worry not. There will be more lows. We'll go down 50 sooner or later.

Maybe even in a few days. There something worrying about this today's rally - I do not quite like the volume histogram. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Anyway, anybody who bought at 66 has plenty of time to exit their long positions in case there is danger to profits. Proper entry is one thing, but trade management (after the entry) is even more important.

can you feel the wind changing direction ?

I know thats what you think, you think next time you buy it will be lower than it is now.
I called bottom yesterday, i'm predicting 180 in ~20day.
so ya good luck!
lol
 

Good call so far. The price has fallen through $75 to rebound off $73.

Some of us even grew little horns after eating all that bull meat ...
I hope it does not make us queasy  

EDIT : My fur is falling out and my legs are growing ... what is happening to me ? Help !

Awkward:
Short-term (i.e, daily) Trend: Slightly Bullish
Mid-Term Trend (i.e, monthly): Very bearish
Long-Term Trend (i.e, Yearly): Very Bullish

Agreed Dalib, my Dead Emu is partially a combination of a descending triangle with a little symmetrical thrown in (meaning down movement). Not text book (Don't descending triangles normally come off falls in price and not rises?), but I think it continues the pattern and goes down. (A symmetrical would go down off a
Seller are appearing so I expect it to continue down.

Yes, it's a very interesting situation on the market.
I assumed the bounce afterm last lows and up movement to 82 - 84. But, we have strong resistance at 80 (orange), despite the market looks bullish short term.
It's difficult to guess only one way for further development.

• 1. If we overcome resistance we might move up. (to 84 - 90)
• 2. Otherwise I see far more possible side movement between resitance and support ($ 74 - 80 ) so far. (by me 60:40)
• 3. And until we get over down the line (red), we can step be even lower, bellow $ 65. (still 70:30, but after several days)

PS: TA can tell us a probability of different options, it's not a divination of what is sure to happen tomorrow.  

I don't understand that sell off. I saw the price bottomed at 75 and then immediately went back to 77  

I have the money flow as being bottomed around 20.
I'm not sure I understand you. Are you saying it was a mis-timed sell?

I sort of follow you but I hadn't been using short term periods like that.
This is a bit over my head actually  
How is the period (short or long) related to the effect on sell offs? (or buys)
I thought it didn't matter, it was all in the order book (for the most part).

Thanks Dalib, really interesting and I understand now (I do well with pictures) 
Gives me something to keep an eye on...

That second square (SELL) is pretty tricky, you could end up selling too early and then end up getting a loss at next BUY.

Really interesting, we are (obviously) at a key spot. I didn't draw that green line, that is the price  
We are overbought I'd say, very much so after the last big "bounce". And the candle appears like it was "pushed" down to the current level.
Up or Down? I really say down, but can feel the psychological push up.

Bitstamp really starting to deviate again. Lots on the sell side.
Leading or  

Their intention might be to stimulate rallying so they can sell allot higher

I think we might see $70 within 48 hours.

I do not want to predict accurately whether 80 or 70 and at what time  
But some indicators suggest that the market is overbought after the rapid boom from 69 to 94 (a peak 104).

I assume that the 104 was the top of this wave will soon see low. (it may not be in 48 hours )

Whales pointing their nose again with coordinated big buys within few minutes, trying to incite another rally???

Reverse Head and Shoulders that broke the neckline. Looks like we can expect yet another bubble.

If (this is conditional) Mrs Market does as per my picture, then experienced traders already know how many orgasms Mrs Market will experience during this bullish wave (where to put their TPs).

The that bid wall at 94 is going to get nibbled very soon it seems.

Ahhhh, they'rrrrrrrrre baaaaaaaaack...

II was asking myself why somebody would buy higher, if they could buy cheaper. Can't think anything besides manipulation or stupidity. Last 5 days were very strange

Manipulation mostly occurs in the orderbook, the walls. It has only a small effect in the overall market trend. The market came down from 136 to 65. The market is only midway between the two recent extremes. It is entirely reasonable for it to return to $120 for a while even if the long-term downtrend is still intact. If that downtrend has already exhausted, and the $266 bubble deflation has faded away, then it may kick around in hundred plus range for months.

Honestly, 2011 is a vague guide, not a rule-book. There was a fundamental difference right at the start. In 2011 when the bubble began the base was just under $1, so increased over 30x to peak. But the fall was only to $10, still 10x base. So it had a long way to fall, and it did for 5 months.
In contrast, 2013 dropped straightaway to barely 3.5x the base of $13-$14. So a low was quickly tested. 2011 was the first bubble so a lot of people did not know what to expect. In 2013, everyone was looking at this prior event and obviously many people cashed out fast. If 2013 crashed only to $135 and bounced around that for a few months then the argument that the bottom had not been tested would be very sound. But this is not what happened.

So?

Hold on! Are you saying we either go up, down or sideways?!
That's one amazing analysis!