So you are saying we will hit resistance at just above $120... and support is declining...

As you said those are all medium to long term plays, which means little incremental ups over a long extended period of time as milestones are met.  

Contrast that to Cyprus which was very short term, in your face, get your f--kin money out NOW! As that new flow came in, more people jumped on the band wagon.


See the difference?

I am only stating through those examples that you ought not be surprised that news has little significant immediate impact and that it correlates with insignificant up or down swings in the price of BTC since as you point out it is long term.  People will not learn this stuff over night.  

As for me I have not put 1 red cent into bitcoin.  Only sweat and brain power.  And it has treated me well.

well judging that 15k+ traded in 60 seconds, down to 89, looks like eaten

you know that feeling you get in your gut after something has had a good run and you have the feeling that the ground underneath you is about to crumble?

that's when you sell, not when you are already down 10%+ - nothing wrong with taking profit.

Do I get a free drink? lol

weapon of mass destruction?

at this rate it might be cheaper to take a short weekend trip to tokyo, ask MT for cash or gold or whatever, take him out for some sake, go to a massage parlor, and fly back... i see round trip from CPH for under 1k...

why do you ask? have you ever seen it higher? 

true once every blue moon. must be patient...

and on the third day, satoshi will appear and use his hidden trove of BTC to bring parity to the exchanges...


okay probably not gonna happen  

waiting for the dead cat bounce

well u are at par on your last buy atm ....

good catch, i saw some posts a few days ago that were pointing to an unusual spike in tor clients and directory requests in tor network

https://metrics.torproject.org/performance.html

this one wins contradiction of the month  

gap between bitstamp and mtgox is closing

i suggest you google

"Mike Carson" ebay

4th post down he has kindly posted his phone number

don't think you all will be seeing 140 anytime soon...

don't worry whoever is dumping will need to buy the btc back when they realize that at most they can transfer out 1000 euros per day and now even japanese domestic wires are taking a week or more, and forget about getting dollars out...

hitting the sack... wake me up when it is btc<100 

ebay/paypal is a new entrant into the banking field, they by no means are an incumbent.  any tech which has the potential for radical disruption, will not and cannot be harnessed by incumbents.

read what paypals original mission and vision were, though i doubt any of the original folks are left, the people running it must realize the disruptive ability of crypto to the banking space

no integration is not easy.

unlike most fly by night btc websites, paypal could lose their msb licenses so they would need to understand how the sale, exchange, storage and transmission of btc impacts their current compliance operations.

apparently btce is now accepting USA wires... which means that btce and bitstamp price should converge soon

let's get back on topic rather then mere speculation about paypal using bitcoin

what do you all make of this dead cat bounce, are we going down again or up?

i agree, i am thinking we will go under $100 in the next week...

speaking of bitstamp... has anyone noticed that they added a new deposit method called AstroPay apparently it works for some of the latin america countries

has these logos, not sure what some of them are:

hmmm the community, define that?

because i have been told lots of people  buy and sell btc for things that have nothing to do with mtgox, bitstamp, etc...  do not under estimate the power of historicity

edit: and avoiding time in the pen...

crap i'm out

seriously i love your technical analysis

we ain't hitting 200 by end of year 

btce and stamp near parity are we approaching time to buy?

Great so we can use our asics to totally crush ppc and launch a 51 attack on it while it is still young.

How fun would that be };-)

wooohoo ride that whale baby

4. All of the above

that and it is good to test ones assumptions with potentially countervailing opinions, even if they seem far fetched or the rantings of a mad man.

on the other hand they can also show you that your thinking is not in line with that of a known fool

seriously you guys think that a big time investor is gonna transfer boat loads of cash into MTGox ... all they have to do is contact asicminer or other asic outfits to get their hands on a ton of BTC.

hey i could be wrong but with about 30k btc left under $200... yea ride the wave but be careful...

And how much btc did avalon, asicminer, bfl (I know scam...), etc rake in to produce?  Those factories that produce those chips require cash in the 6 figures to produce... think about it...

You guys are a bunch of dickheads lol

yup... coinlab has no money other than some cash from Draper... they will just go BK...

Does this mean we should be selling now?

He should take a pencil to his other eyeball

Look at the amount of articles in the Press section of this website.  There are REAL articles from known media websites and mags, this was NOT the case 6 months ago.  6 months ago Forbes was calling bitcoin a joke.

Now we are getting headlines like this:
The Federal Government's Reaction To Bitcoin Is An Acknowledgement Of The Dollar's Vulnerability -15000+ pageview
www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/08/25/the-federal-governments-reaction-to-bitcoin-is-an-acknowledgement-of-the-dollars-vulnerability/

Follow The Bitcoins: How We Got Busted Buying Drugs On Silk Road's Black Market -50000 pageviews
www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2013/09/05/follow-the-bitcoins-how-we-got-busted-buying-drugs-on-silk-roads-black-market/

Guess what every college student that wants to score some stuff will know exactly how to use SR by spring 2014... I already see it at the uni I am in... last year few used it... now I may have heard rumours of a handful of guys who take orders for others and themselves...

you are assuming that some of the items available in SR are available in all geographies which is not the case.  for many due to geography the prices are competitive and the quality is better, and there is more available.

also there is the issue with quality control via the crowd, and not having to see deal with someone face to face, some of who can be unpleasant or unsavory

as far as selling... all you need is a box, tape, wrapping, a scale, and stamps and you can leave the packages at many places for the post man to pick up

as far as receiving, i am sure the post office will deliver any package addressed to Ronald McDonald at my house and many others...

how do you know that there is only one entity manipulating the market?  maybe they are all taking turns with the market?

gonna have to put chart buddy on ignore 

has sight of the white whale driven you to madness?

then leave and go away.

GOOD BYE

no. not this...

the peak happened on low volume, it was high volume which caused the crash, careful what you wish for...

i would guess the shifts in the btc demand curve are gradual over time due to the fact that it is difficult to get fiat into the system.  however this may change as the btc economy widens (btc denominated securities and services)...

however when from one day we go from trading 30k (day before peak) to the next day when we hit the peak of 260 and then proceed to have volume 5x to 160k on gox, you see a 60% drop in value.

it is hard to get fiat in but it is easy to open up 11M worth of btc in wallets... this is an indication that most btc owners are just sitting on a ton of btc and willing to hold on for the long term (or many people didnt take it so seriously and lost their wallets in the first couple years thus limiting supply)

it seems that hitting 250 resulted in unlocking some btc whales' to take massive dumps, but since the change in ownership, and the double bottom at 60ish over the last half year, one can reasonably assume that the change and shake out has happened. and as far as i can tell there is no indication that the underlying fundamentals driving btc adoption are slowing down, in fact once all this regulatory BS gets under control, and it will (otherwise making it a blackmarket thing in the USA but not in other western countries will only increase its value at a higher pace - just like coke and weed ), there will be an upward correction.

i would pay close attention to this date...

" 2014 Appropriations Bill for Commerce, Justice, Science and Related agencies which contains many things, but notably requests an FBI Briefing on the subject of Bitcoins and Money Laundering, to be available within 120 days of signing.  On July 23, 2013, "

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/6361/bitcoin-goes-to-washington-bitcoin-and-money-laundering-2014-commerce-justice-science-and-related-agencies-appropriations-bill-federal-bureau-of-investigation/

just what do you think the FBI will say...

how about..

we need more money for more computing power so that we can try to trace these illicit money laundering transactions, please give us another $10 billion so we can hire more people and buy more hardware

this article has a number of major flaws

#1 conspiracy theory

there is some cabal of traders- does he mean like a hedge fund operates?

# intent

he is guessing at intent

"splitting an order to give the illusion of many trades, and trading within a group to give the appearance of increased volume"

how about... splitting an order to maximize profit

his whole argument hinges on increased volume, yet there are people on this forum bitchin about lowered volume... huh 

#3 stop loss triggering

" causing more stop losses to trigger "

is anyone aware of any of the major exchanges to have a stop loss feature? as far as i know it does not exist.

# 4 panic selling

"illusion of many different players panic-selling" is created by 1 btc sells every 5 seconds?

no the illusion of panic selling would be created by someone dumping 500 btc, waiting 5 minutes, dumping 750 btc, waiting 5 minutes, dumping 1000 btc, waiting 5 minutes dumping 1250 btc.... boom! the rats start jumping ship...

i could go on but i would just suggest people not listen to a politician for market analysis, there is a reason why his role in society is politician not hedge fund manager...

the impression i got from the article was someone lost out on some trades, his ego got hurt...

started to drink a bunch of whisky (I base this on his own bio, claiming to be a lover of whisky) that got him mad about it...

then to calm down called over some friends to smoke some weed (bought on SR of course, totally guessing here) that unfortunately made him really paranoid because the weed turned out to be moldy...

after sometime being high and coming up with ideas of what is going on with bitcoin someone at the party broke out the cocaine (because y'all know whisky and coke always come together to the party)

finally, he decided to do something about all this trading nonsense and wrote this article.

i know that's not what actually happened (OR DID IT but hey this is what happens when someone takes wild stabs in the dark...

weren't we mining at an accelerated pace the last few months perhaps this is the result of that? or perhaps there is some missing data for about a week or so.

otherwise the chart looks good to me

I think what he means by selling slowly is that no one is taking big dumps, as happened 2x now during the shake out periods.

obviously sellers of stuff for BTC need to liquidate into dollars/euros as 99.9% of the world economy has yet to accept BTC for stuff... so you cannot interpret some selling as lack of faith in BTC but rather merchants needing fiat to pay their invoices.

has anyone else noticed the 1 btc bid at$136ish that temporarily pops on bitstamp every half hour or so... what's up with that

fack its like the night before christmas ....

btw not sure if you guys have seen this yet, pretty cool, would be awesome for anyone selling biofuel or dispensing moonshine?

Bitcoin Fluid Dispenser
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGBZxWOwkh4

I like the part where he says...

This could also be useful if the employer does not want to issue the employee a credit card for acquiring fluid during their daily activities

Top of 2nd horn is missing

too many people think btc is a ponzi scheme

too many people expect gravity to work

too many people expect the sun to come up

too many people expect they will wake up tomorrow

gotta love logical fallacies

sr is here to stay unless dpr gets nabbed, but another would pop up in 48 hours

mtgox is already a zombie exchange

bitpay will either remain or get bought out by bigger players

yes, but regarding bitpay if they do screw up someone will buy them for the accounts, even if it is on the cheap

i have been waiting patiently for your prediction to come true, single digits by friday as you said lol

as the old saying goes...

feed the eagle, starve the turkey

here's my advice on the matter...

usually when it is hard to tell i turn to fundamentals, i came to the conclusion that the rise in price was in part driven by asic demand in the 1st half of the year, people holding off on selling so they could put in their orders for asics and people putting more money into the system to put in orders.

internet was getting swamped with BFL ads

anyway i'm not going to go into my thoughts on this further, but people gotta get an roi at some point to pay for all that hardware they've been waiting up to 1 year for

on a side note totally unrelated to the talks in this thread about infiltrating the Austrian school...

does btc-tc closing have an impact price and btc speculative supply?  or is this a non event?

http://thegenesisblock.com/btc-trading-corp-shutters-operations-cites-regulatory-environment/

it seems Atlantis got shut down as well.... hmmm

That is pretty much as I thought, glad people seem to agree on this. 

I think a few panic sold, but that was just the typical knee jerk reaction coming from the day trading set.  But I have not looked at the price charts again, so it will be good to at least track this over the next week to see what the leakage is.

I wonder if this is creating new arbitrage opportunities between stock exchange markets and how efficient the markets are to find a balance.

I thought most true Republicans were for small, limited govt which would imply support for the use of private associations, or syndicates or cartels, for the governance of trade and commerce. 

But then again the party has been infiltrated by corporatists who love helping big industry suck from the govt tit. Our grandfathers are rolling over in their graves.

did not you say we would be in single digits by this week?

i have noticed that there always appears to be a run up in price prior to the 1st of the month... wonder if the same is happening again

how about going with the simplest and most plausible explanation.

some people have money stuck on gox, have to pay some bills and were not able to get a large wire out, thus they bought btc on gox, sent it to bitstamp and are dumping so they have some cash to pay their bills.  Or to pay a bill/invoice from a merchant that uses bitstamp or one of the party payment providers that use bitstamp

simple enough?

also look at the macd on the 1 and 3 day charts...

i never referred to those people, i said people who had money on gox who needed to pay their end of month invoices....  while not mutually exclusive they are also not the same...

yes and there is a run up ever last week of the month and then the price falls... wonder why...   

yea a good buying opp at about $20 bucks

boy am i glad to be in all cash as of a couple weeks ago, i knew something was up as soon as Atlantis got taken down

JUMP SHIP

omg like 30%+ divergence  between gox and bitstamp

i put in a buy order at  $10

come to papa...

it already went down to 78 on bitstamp, it will go lower dont play with fire

yea i'm holding also... holding dollars

dont try to catch a falling knife, wait...

even a dead cat bounces on its way down the stairwell...

so looks like the show is over ... what now? 

Only the US govt has has been significantly hostile.   I do not think you can make that claim for EU govts.  

But the US is currently run by a bunch of bubbas who will attack anything different then what they saw on tv 45+ yrs ago

Oh really?  Can you provide an example?

wait... but it is evening for me...

I was being facetious, I could be wrong but the OP was referring to the vote that should occur tonight in the House

he is keeping the thread "Hardcore"

Not a chance.  Both parties get massive massive donations from big biz... be real.  The only thing that could happen is deciding to extend the debt limit but not budget money for nonessential govt services.  Looks like we will get about 21 days of that in 3 months.  

Too bad it wont include the bubbas at DHS and last a few more months, otherwise people would start realizing how worthless half those federal services are.

They would need to get rid of fdic insurance.   If you have the worlds reserve currency you just print more, thats what we have been doing for 40 yrs and that is what we will continue to do for as long as we can

huh weird why are some completely stopping intl wires... then this article makes no sense... well it is forbes so...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/halahtouryalai/2013/10/17/no-jpm-isnt-banning-international-wire-transfers-no-limits-on-withdrawals-either/

A Picasso is worth a lot more than a stack of bills, and it is nice to look at...

Always believe the opposite of what he says

i would be happy to lend $ at that rate...

Thanks for that reminder of how to be a human being.

Some of us were not raised by sociopaths...

In a sociopathic mind that is correct.

However, some people have minds that work differently and look at longer term and communiy wide effects.  For example, it might be that someone is coding a more efficient miner to produce bitcoins and secure the network, this is a market activity that results in long term returns which a sociopath who sees the world as a seriesof zero sum games might not be able to understand.

The reason why this market exists is because a lot of people want to break free of dependancy on fiat.  Sociopaths do not care about that unless it profits them.

i'm really surprised at the difference with btce and bitstamp, haven't seen that kind of divergence in a while

yea but remember the climb from $30+... we had an almost 10x climb to a new high of 266...  then fell to about 49 for a second maybe...

that is not so say we will not have localized dips

the gox strikes again!

woah gox and bitstamp almost at parity...

you should go in the IRC #mtgox channel magicaltux was on there earlier

i made a huge revelation...  

if you rearrange the letters in satoshi nakamoto you get...

so a man took a shit

how many BTC does he have to dump?

then i ran the anagram tool  and i found that it also matches to this...

i took a hot  man ass

Ah so this is how the market looks with no bots... totally dead

right now on gox there are 25679 btc in buy orders between $1 and 1.25

i have to wonder, did people just forget about their accounts? are these orders from people who are dead? 

at the other end the depth of for sale btc is about 26000 btc... each week it gets lower...

at some point, something has to break

anyway i put in a small sell order at 469, come and get it...

the capitulation of the us dollar?

not yet dude  still have some ways to go

are you suggesting we should build VISA and Mastercard API interaction directly into the bitcoin protocol?  

(just having a little fun)

Buy a little at a time, sell a little at a time, readjust you position so the value of ur btc is a certain percentage if your portfolio

It will be interesting what will happend when we have less than 10k btc on mtgox...

great wall of china coming down.... barbarians are invading!

up 35% is very respectable.

people need to make their own decisions, personally sticking to a strategy seems to work well.

for example my strategy is buying more when there is a massive dump, which only happens every once in a while - unfortunately i missed the SR dump, thought it would go lower

well i don't daytrade but i think it is good that people do, it provides liquidity

if every just kept their btc under their mattress (print out of private key), then there would be no chance for anyone new to get their hands on some

unfortunately what is happening right now is price going up due to lack of supply due to hoarding, not any new magnitudinal shift in utility that has come online with btc business in the last 3 weeks. look at the tx graph it has not shifted since last year.

people who got paid in btc a few years ago are sitting on thousands, some of them are not providing any value to the system especially by not circulating the btc they have.  they could easily take those coins and invest them into btc businesses or people to write off their massive profits but instead they are hoarding for various reasons (I realize some people didnt declare this income the first couple years and are in a weird position...).  that is not healthy.

i don't recall who it was but one of the dev's once said that there would be something like 5 (or 7?) btc bubbles.  market adoption driven bubbles should happen in the first 2 and 3 stage (mass market adoption, final bubble) of market adoption. there is probably some academic studies i have read on this but i dont recall offhand

my personal opinion is that bubbles should be spaced out longer than the time period between the last 2 bubbles as it takes longer for new innovations to bring about new growth curves.  the time period between the last 2 bubbles was about 21 months.  it is been only 6 months and people are already expecting another bubble event...  

look at this tx graph  https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

the # of processed tx is a proxy for utility, earlier this year we got rid of dust tx and you could see the decrease, and now an increase which means that some new value has been brought in but we are not talking 10X yet. in the last bubble the magnitudinal (10x) tx increase preceded the massive (10x) price range shift

i would have to go with this and add that...

some never reported their btc income a couple years ago when they mined it or were paid for services  (maybe didnt know what to do with it and it was monopoly money at the time) and don't want their btc showing up at places that have instituted KYC...  you know what happens to money assets that you hide from the US govt after 3 years right... not saying it is right but that's the way it is...

an investment produces something, it has utility.  investing in a worker and a taco truck, produces a return.  buying something and hiding it produces nothing.

the present value should already contain all discounted future value, which is anticipated by market participants.  although one could make an argument that market participants are growing temporarily driving up the price.

so then we may have what is called a liquidity trap in the bitcoin world.  which would result in deflation (higher btc price)that we are now seeing but it is not a long term innovation value driven bubble by a change in the rate of adoption and rate of tx growth.  

IF that is the case, then as soon as the speculators run out of powder and whatever other reasons others may have for hoarding the crash will come , unless tx rates increase dramatically.  it could happen, i just don't see it right now.

this is not to say that the price cannot go up, it may for some time, until people realize that there is no additional value from just buying the stuff and not doing anything with it.

i actually do own  some coins

edit: and i do keep some of them under my mattress...

for some of the same reasons some people are hoarding btc now.

knowing that mindset i believe the current run up that is happening now is not a sudden shift in detection of an unexpected increase in sustainable future value growth rates.

trivia question:

when was the last time that the price divergence between gox and bitstamp was this thin, and what happened in the days following?

http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin%2C%20btc&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q

google trends

that is not entirely true, people in the EU are saying they get their SEPA transfers.  check the irc chat #mtgox and the mtgox withdraw delays thread

but i bet no one in the EU in their right mind would tx money to gox, they are buying on btce or bitstamp

Bitcoin is not even at the eary adopter phase, we are in the one before that, I forget what it is called...  let us say we are at the mosaic stage, pre netscape... we have not even realized 98% of what this tech can and will be used for.

how much fuel is left?

this ... is exactly why most people will not touch bitcoin with a 10 foot pole... only a few suckers will do this, and btc will get a bad reputation- it is actually pretty bad already among the normal people...

ask anyone who is a CFO or accountant if they think any large business would want to use a currency that fluctuates by 50% in any given week, and has an ultra thin market.

read the first sentence of the first 2 paragraphs  of satoshi's wp:

"Commerce on the Internet has come to rely almost exclusively on financial institutions serving as trusted third parties to process electronic payments"

"What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust,
allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted
third party"

Is btc used for commerce on the Internet?

Where in the wp does it say we need a trustless asset class to invest in?


good to go back to the roots sometimes... for a reminder of why this even exists.

the ultra thin market exists because 95% of btc is hoarded, not because it is the first day of existence (which happened a while ago btw).

the hoarding causes speculative boom and bust cycles.

the volatility from the boom and bust cycles diminish the intended economic advantage of using a trustless p2p money system vs third parties.  the diminished value lowers adoption rates...

anyway i think we will test 266 soonish...

if that happens expect having miners slug through the valley of death for a while...  if hash power declines b/c miners go offline, block times will increase... compounding the problem...

how does one analyze an asymptotic rise?

smart whales are actually waiting at the bottom... 

i actually have to get back to writing a paper otherwise I would.  Anyway this is all conjecture at this point, I'll know in a few months when the tx and price data is available.

No one can arb using an exchange located in a country that has capital controls!!!  Go ahead try to move fiat money out of China... and you thought Gox was hard...

Okay... i stand corrected... there is no *easy way*...

I show they went to 1339.99

less than 20000 btc left on gox... where is that sell of gonna come from...

are you unable to read little boy?

the twinsies

this is an interesting graph, it's started to move up against btc the last few hours

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcusd

i wonder if this has to do with people anticipating SEC approval of the bitcoin trust, the sec should respond within 30 days of the oct 8 filing

i like this version better

for sure we are going to retest the previous highs (it actually had hit 300 on btchina in april)

it kind of amazes me how much fiat was sitting around at gox this whole time  (it is not as if people are wiring funds to gox when price is way cheaper on a few exchanges), and the fact that this money just watched BTC go so low a few times and then just sat there for months until the most expensive time to start buying

We didnt even test the high...  

You know what that means...

You should be using candle stick not closing price, as the lattet does not exist.

that's not really a crash. more like a correction.

i think the real crash will happened after the bitcoin trust is listed and the winklevoss btc which are locked up right now flood the market and soak up all the fiat, this is sort of the run up in anticipation to that.

this is pure speculation

also i wonder if some of this was due to short term loans coming due on bitfinex...

if you recall the twins put together a trust of about 200k btc (I think), and filed an s1 with the sec, that s1 was refiled on oct 8 (when this rally started basically) with letters from their law firm (i guess in response to sec questions from the original july filing)

the sec has 30 days to approve or ask more questions.  but assuming they find the law firm's letters acceptable then the winklevoss btc trust will go live some time between now and 6th of November I suppose (this is not my field really)

at that point rather then paying coinbase 1% and shipping money of to some far away island or euroland, or meeting some shady drug dealer who wants to dump his btc via lbc, you could simply log into your brokerage or 401k account and supposedly buy this...

anyway what it means is that there will be a glut of btc that was previously not marketable on the market...

those 200k btc were not marketable and could not be touched since the july filing...

what happens to price when the supply curve moves out? ths is not demand for 200k btc this is a supply of 200k btc being SOLD to the public, supply that was not available since the twins purchased it

what happens when shareholders lock outs are done?

econ 101....

no worries...  i know my grammar and spelling completely suck, when i am not accountable (not getting a grade or getting paid for this lol)

this would be a hit at any corner store across from a western union shop..

keep in mind that is the result of 0% trade commissions

end of the month is coming

the typical pattern at least the pattern that i see is down in the first couple days of the month

http://www.businessinsider.com/man-buys-bitcoin-forgets-about-it-remembers-finds-a-fortune-2013-10

"Kristoffer Koch invested 150 kroner ($26.60) in 5,000 bitcoins in 2009, after discovering them during the course of writing a thesis on encryption"

moral of the story?

buy $26.60 of btc, and wait 4 years

it took me even longer than that, when you are busy with other projects you just don't have time to investigate everything that comes up.  i only got in  when i was looking for sponsors for a hackathon and the ripple guys were nice enough to give us some.  

the funny thing is all of the students had no clue what to do with the stuff.  i told them it was worth real money but getting people to create a ripple web wallet was harder than selling someone on a million dollar ERP system...  and these are primarily MSc students at a technical university, so you can only imagine how hard the adoption curve is for non-techies.

quick make it to 2000  before gox implodes on itself

indeed, i saw that earlier today... lots of carrots for you

oh shiz i didnt know we could post stories on there...

i think i'll go upload my essay on bitcoin and mobile banking haha...

not even close, this gonna get fugly me thinks

hey long time no see

i think your prediction from last fall might finally come true

this chinese issue has been around for weeks, seems like a red herring at this point

sentiment appears down, the btc atm's were supposed to be flooding the markets now come summer, but it's very quiet.

almost eerily quiet.  i guess we will see soon enough.

well worst case scenario if the price keeps falling pizza.fr accepts payments in bitcoin...

not a good idea...

breaking rule #1: buying into a losing position

 http://www.dacharts.com/articles/_22rulestrading.htm

The 22 Rules of Trading

We give you Master Trader Dennis Gartman's 22 Rules of Trading, many of which you can apply to all sorts of life situations, as well as the markets.

Every day, Dennis Gartman gets up at bout 2:30 AM and writes an information packed 4 page newsletter on the world markets, oil, currencies, commodities political happenings and much more. He is read by the major trading houses and traders all over the world, as they stumble bleary eyed into work, grabbing the Gartman Report to find out what happened as they slept and to get insight as to what the issues of the day will be, and suggestions on how to trade. Dennis puts his trades on public display and talks you through his logic. It is a most remarkable work, and I find it a key part of my struggle in trying to keep up with what is going on. I am always amazed when on the occasions I find myself in the office at an early hour to find Dennis' letter hit my inbox about 5:00 AM. His travel schedule makes mine look tame, and from wherever in the world he finds himself, he writes and sends his letter. And he still maintains a single digit handicap on the golf course.

On the Friday after Thanksgiving, he publishes his "Rules of Trading," adding to them as wisdom increases. Here is today's list:

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position.... ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!

2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.

3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.

4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is "low." Nor can we know what price is "high." Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way.

5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

6. "Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent," according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds... they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.

8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect "gaps" in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.

9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In "good times," even errors are profitable; in "bad times" even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.

10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market's technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.

11. Respect "outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more "weekly" and "monthly," reversals.

12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.

13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen... just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.

14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights.

15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first "addition" should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements.

16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements.

17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are "right" only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.

18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom ... and the ignorance...of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market's wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed.

19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; new lows sold.

20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don't; and if it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.

21. There is never one cockroach! This is the "winning" new rule submitted by our friend, Tom Powell.

22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when... and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!

this is part of the dark wallet thing from what i recall

cool i'm down to organize a group buy lol

then watch as they spend your money while you get squeezed down in another round while hoping that they go public some day but just get bought out by paypal

Is that a Pimposaurus?

shit sorry guys i meant to buy 4000 and i accidentally pressed sell

my Mom just called and said she bought the Bitcoin

i've bought 3, they keep breaking down

i actually am thinking of getting an iphone b/c my samsung blows

i just need the btc price to go up so i can get the phone

i know ... lame

7777 of course

well Wall Street bankers and hedge fund employees do have an insatiable need for cocaine... duh... and well going to the bank to withdraw a few thousand $ for a week of working 80+ hours looks a little suspicious...

woah look at that million dollar buy wall on stamp

when the squeeze comes someone is gonna lose a lot of dough

woah that is even bigger than the one on bitstamp

i'm going to post a 3rd time in the 7777 i hope

good luck everyone

you should have sold at 450, too late now buddy

i actually dumped before you at a higher price... haha



neener neener

very nice

i can't believe someone created two accounts to argue with himself on bitcointalk

all the mac users are fucked

and now that likelihood increases even more...

he pulled it out of his ass...

Hal refers to mining block 70 something, and finding several blocks.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=155054.0

However only 1 block in the 70s has ever moved and into a wallet that had an aggragate of 40 block rewards.

edit* https://blockchain.info/address/14yF89mjn831zpbrX7TW2HExLGuqXaK3hc

made up of 40 50 BTC blocks.

those 2000 coins started to move again last year.

first one would need to define what it means to be "most used"; one could argue that Windows is the most used, if one defines used as used like the bathroom stalls at old inner city greyhound bus stations

pretty crazy to see stuff like this going on in western countries... sad days ahead as gov't abuse of citizens will surely be on the uptake

careful don't want to jinx it

this guy just posted something in his Elliot Waves Analysis thread, worth seeing

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=555289.msg8976473#msg8976473

unfortunately he did not provide much commentary, but in the past he has been very good

"An update to the Elliot Wave count I have posted previously. As long as the previous low for wave ii-(1)-3 at around 390 holds then this count looks good. "

yea i know, but i'm a photographer who has worked with fetish models so this is a common scene for every goth model... lol

just preparing people psychologically

aww someone deleted my blood bath post

i guess we are in the stage of denial.

>10% drop coming  soon.

*edit: so much for free speech, fascist wankers

i second that motion

only willy bot can save us

i agree there are some things the DOGE community has which Bitcoin lacks. Like fresh blood.

the dump is starting again soon

and i mean that in more ways than one

i think i need to hire a team from the philipines and comb through this thread to report all of the "irrelevant to topic" posts on this thread.

how many reports do you all think a single user could do if I pay them $1/hr plus a 1 cent bonus for each deleted post?

i'm thinking about 600 posts per hour, and i can have this thread whittled down to a few hundred posts in less than a day with a team of two or three

might be a lot of work for the mods though

or even better hire another team to just post complete trash and bury this thread lol

i'll put that on the to do list for my philippino virtual assistant

i'm pretty sure what just happened was run by covert psyops from an anti-bitcoin gov't ... I'm looking at you Bangladesh

it's a call to batman...  gotham is in trouble

who is it this time?  the riddler? joker? catwoman?

stay tuned...

oh yea you're right! my buddy has those in his sex shop here on Ibiza

must be time to go down? something smells fishy though

you mean like watching willy bot work in reverse

i dunno until he sells the 600k btc that was taken from gox

you do the math

2 things:

1) quantumlink/aol sending out shitloads of CD coasters to every american household

2) netscape

you communicate with your son through bitcointalk?

or are you telling him to sell your son?

weird...

interesting bitcoin is more popular than "doge" (Symbolic of the overall meme) and "dogecoin"

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin%2C%20dogecoin%2C%20doge&date=1%2F2013%2013m&cmpt=q

howeever one would expect doge price to be higher given it has almost 10% as much news items as bitcoin

i give it 80% chance we are at 350 or lower by end of next week, and 20% chance we are at 500+

i am sure people will appreciate our candor lol

i have no idea but i thought if it could reach 1000 in 5 years from 2010, then my the end of the decade it would be a major player in global currency markets and destabilize what some countries do to keep their currencies at certain unnatural level.

and just from a purely academic position it would be very interesting to analyze data to see how the economy really functions

that indeed is a problem. but it is unlikely that miners would shut down so fast due to price fluctuations.

a 1859 type event would knock out many of our systems.

but theoretically you could start a new bitcoin with a seed db of the last block  and start from difficulty 0, readjust the awards to 0 for the first 2 weeks or whatever.

I think a lot of the trading and volume has been sucked away into the alt currency markets.  Many PnDs happening there on a weekly basis, which is a big turn off to people looking in from the outside.

i hope you are joking.

when i checked a day or two ago DOGE volume was 1/4 of BTC volume.

that is 25% of the TOTAL BTC volume for a fucking coing with an inu shiba mascot....  25%....

i would recommend that you take a more fact based approach or at least cite some data...

while btc volume clearly is not as high as it was in the beginning of the year when there was a ton of speculative activity and much more volatility it is doing okay http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#charts

lol what?  Obama is not responsible for Chinese opium addiction withdraws

c'mon all chinese know that it is the fault of the Gweilo

yes and that limit is almost ZERO.

as the price goes down, miners start switching off equipment, because there is a 2 week lag in difficulty adjustment blocks get made at increasing longer periods of time until difficult re-adjusts (currently we are at 8 minute average), as the network operates lower at a lower capacity merchants considering using other systems which are less prone to this problem.

he is a bull btw jesus xrist you paranoid freaks lol

hint: click on his name and look at his post history

yes the bid side you can see the rug being pulled...

if this breaks 380 on stamp we are in for a world of pain, people might be paying people fiat to take their BTC away from them

this is why fresh Benjamins will always have some value

i made some predictions based on your analysis

i wouldn't call this crash and burn.  super boring, minor jitter.

the theme song for this week

How Low

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ox-lfowevqA

ah first we need a cult so soon we will reach the kool-aid point

as aside i think i know someone who claimed he got a bitcoin tat

my screen cannot hadnle these colors

yes but last year was a different situation.  we had willy bot on mtgox buying up BTC that was no longer held by the exchange (or in the processes of being fleeced).

this year we have a glut of ASICs causing block times to be in the 8 minute range which means that the daily supply of BTC is 20% higher than it should.  also several very large early wallets moved at the end of 2013 and the first half of 2014.

i actually bought back in right after the SR drop...

going to Mars is a suicide mission until they can have a space station around Mars

edit:

which i don't think the current world leadership is capable of the kind of long term planning that is required to achieve that...

hah thanks  Klee

yea until a bigger whale comes along and shits on him.  woe the stories of heart ache and loss when people margin trade...

remember the trend if your friend

you are off by a decimal 3862.3

can i return the bitcoins in 30 days if i don't like the quality of the product?

they said it was magic internet money

the PnD will be EPIC

all those people with home equity line of debit cards.... i can just imagine ...

a bunch of models in the background, i like it

the last few months i have been spending a lot more time with women then i have been with bitcoin (i saw the down trend coming at the beginning of the year).

but now that winter is coming it is time for me to get serious again and get back to business.

nah it's going to be bitpay not coinbase, coinbase will get bought by BofA

that's part of the grand plan my friend

we are nearing the result of what happens with excessive dumping

i def don't think we have reached a bottom, we need to have a higher low on one of the lower resolutions like the 6 hour before that is confirmed... then a period of relative calmness to save energy for the move upward

the fact is that the $1200 pump should have never happened if it weren't for gross manipulation of the market with that bot.

at the time i thought that there would be an 18 month period that would serve as a lull period letting the industry get back to adding value.

instead we prematurely ejaculated and that created a bunch of alt coin pump and dumps.



bitcoin needs a double dose of viagra

yup

under pure communism money does not exist, and if this were to happen then bitcoin as money would no longer exist

some say that that $ may reach parity with the € by year's end.

yes indeed.  however this article from 2013 is interesting, talking about US current accounts possibly being positive at some point in the near future

http://www.businessinsider.com/renminbi-soon-to-be-a-reserve-currency-2013-9

not if you sold when you were supposed to

well whatever his stash was he had so many people following him that his power was even greater than his purse

i'm hodling my fiat

the key is to have patience and be strategic... sit and wait to shoot the bear...

it's great for gambling and buying weapons too

oh and doing multisig escrow with shady lawyers and accountants that may want to steal your money

oh and keeping your money safe from seizure by your enemies in commercial warfare

ugh no shit sherlock, but while he is young he can and will, that's how it works

the end is near, get ready for the finale

it is good that some do, because without young turks we would still be riding around on horses and serving kings

i think october will be an up month for bitcoin just throwing that out there

should have a QR code on the side for donations

lol... the Euro has fallen at least a few points, we don't know what the multiplier would be on a Banana Republic like Bitcoinlandia

b/c of http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CNYUSD%3DX+Interactive#symbol=CNYUSD=X;range=3m

sheesh...

then logically that would mean that there is an arb opportunity opening... since EUR is falling to the USD which i falling to the china coin

lol whatever ain't going to happen

doge is way cooler than nxt

well way back when i was 17 in my Intro to Macroeconomics or was it micro... can't remember... class our professor discussed substitution effects and indifference curves... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indifference_curve

so what are the switching costs of btc to a btc clone, do consumers care?  btc can be even seen as an inferior product with a higher cost since it is slower and the dev seems to have slowed as well.  logically that means...

just my two cents but one can see with Paypal and their partnership with one of Brock's companies who accepts not only BTC but LTC and Doge that there is a potential to rebalance along to adjust to the realities of consumer preferences and cost.

and the fact that btc dev's have done little to nothing in the last year to increase transactional capacity, any rational actor the has merchant relationship would want to hedge himself across multiple networks in order to be able to best service his merchant customers during the Xmas buying season when ecommerce tx go through the roof.

merchants, paypal, visa, mastercard know that Xmas shopping season everything has to work flawlessly to get people's shopping money, but our bitcoin dev's sit around arguing over esoteric pie in the sky bullshit ignoring the ABC's of practical business.

end of quantitative easing announced, EC bank announced something like $1 trillion money printing...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonhartley/2014/09/08/draghis-case-for-ecb-quantitative-easing/

also Japanese announced similar early in the year

in the USA that means interest rates go up so the cost of money goes up so people become more risk averse in the portfolio allocations...

you need to think about psychology of markets and people.

what you want to see is a bunch of the rats abandon ship, people on the bitcoin foundation board resign and move on to "bigger opportunities"; let new blood flow into the system

bitcoin dev's quit and move on to other things which will have the effect of accelerating innovation.

those are the signals i look for.

that should have already have happened except that the stupid willybot thing really messed up the cycle.  so now we get to suffer a little longer.

and it is not for sure that btc will be the dominant player however it may be the dominant design which means that it might be doge or something else but not the "brand name" as we think.

i want to see some people on the dev side quit and move along, as well as some of the CJ conventions close shop, then gradual price increased couple with higher trading volume and transactional volume, then i will believe in the next move up.