Newbie trader here. Would like some trading tips. I see consolidation is happening right around $105.00-$106.00 area for the past few hours. Usually does this mean it will break out upward after or will it drop? Thanks in advance.

LOL. This doesn't apply to me, plus I'm small-time. If I say something that turns out false, then I was just plain wrong, not trying to trick people.

edit: but yeah, I know what you mean. Sometimes I think that too.

Hmm, everyone expects price to continue going way down into the double digits.

So that behavior/expectation must already be priced in, meaning we're not going much lower than this!  

That said, I'm still expecting low 90's within a week from now. Unless the manipulators are REALLY GOOD at keeping it close to $100.

The biggest BTC bull ending up missing the train would be ironic.

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2013_10_17/JP-Morgan-Chase-to-limit-cash-withdrawals-bank-officials-say-0524/ - looks like it is about the whole bank.  But the date on the letter is 8 of Nov. - so it has been planned for some time.

I'm more inclined to "blame" the chinese rally on this, rather than the Baidu (Jiasule) fake news coverage.

wake up china!

Congrats, we are there now.

The next big step will be 210.50.

My first thought when I saw the picture is that it looks more like shag carpet than a field of crops.

I have many feels that is will be the last time we are sub $200 for any significant amount of time.

Anonymous, a full hand scan?
Whats next a full DNA sample  

Funny how people think of something that could potentially be nefarious for bitcoin as hilarious.

oh didn't you get the memo? stamp is going down, too. We're already moving all funds to btcchina.com

i actually wanted to do this, when i have a little free time. if noone does it before me

Gox just pushed up to 227.30 .... and the show continues! got my popcorn and everything

You are right.

When I woke up the big (usual weekend) crash was already over and it was 3:00 am. Made very little profit on a flashcrash but still a good learning opportunity. Looking forward to the responses (up or down?).

That article seems to say it could go to $1 million because with bitcoin everything is so ridiculous you can just pick a random number out of the air (true). That said, google news only mentions the headline, which reads like a statement of fact.

they are charging you extra because you paid extra ahahahaha that so dumb!

People go to banks to make wire transfers? Somewhere the memo that the 20th century is over didn't arrive or something?

 

but but why?

did they speculate with everyone coins and got burnt a little? how can that be we are hitting ATH everyday.

BTC not illegal in Thailand, you just got trolled by the media... lol

I think there is internal manipulation going on in gox, so they can buyback the BTC, at a very low price, because they were running on by fractional reserve so they can handle everyones withdrawals.

wall street journal commiserates and sends us:


http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/

 , ty

I don't have idea when to start seriously buying. 

450 used to be the norm. Before that it was 620, and before that it was 800.
If 425 becomes the new normal flat line on low volume, which is lower than the previous one, it just means that at last dip, once more and again, more fiat got out than new fiat came in.

Apathy sucks. Let's hope that volume picks up on Monday.

This is bullish
Li Ka-Shing sells his properties in China and buys into the Bitcoin dream.
http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8828198/li-ka-shing-family-sells-beijing-property
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/2321/20131229/asian-billionaire-backs-bitcoin-investing-bitpay.htm

huobi made a minor announcement, nothing really. it was pretty weak before the announcement, so this is just a natural correction.

if you see some profits i recommend selling and then selling some more, make sure to hit my bids, thanks. 

Double spending is not at all a problem with fiat. Neither cash nor credit. Counterfeinting and (succesful) attacks on cards, POS'es, ATMs yes, but not double spending. You cannot clone Benjamin. At least not a fictive but definitely produceable quantum Benjamin that cannot be cloned.

Nothing new? The chinese government reporting about bitcoin ATMs is the news itself.  

Trezor

I really wonder what next week will bring in the bitcoin world.

This is something I've been wondering for some time. Even if it is chinese, the logical reaction to a pending ban should be to _buy_ asap and transfer to a safe wallet.

Arbitragers and some other clients will do that.  But most Chinese clients would need to open a bank account in the West in order to withdraw dollars from Bitstamp, and then will have to convert those dollars to CNY so that they can spend them at home.  Since the price at Bitstamp is unlikely to go much higher than now in the near future, many will rather sell now at Huobi.

have you read this article on coindesk ?
http://www.coindesk.com/fidor-becomes-first-bank-to-use-ripple-payment-protocol/

"dear pboc. we have evaded you for 5 months and found a way around every one of your regulations, but now for once we fear you might actually be winning. So now, we are pleading you... please dont go through with this, because we're ethical. we will change. we swear."   It is like the last words of a dying prisoner or something.

In China in general, you won't see announcements made public until privately parties have reached an agreement. There are exceptions of course, but judging from the content, the timing and the involved exchanges, it is highly possible there had been discussions with PBOC.

Yes

what about longs?

Wasn't this deadline put in place for today? It seems the expectation of at least something happening was unreasonable...

ok so let me guess how this might play out:

1. FXBTC played a Gox (fact)
2. Other exchanges might be operating a fractional reserve too (speculation, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=592760.msg6505570#msg6505570) (meh, call me fudster if you want)
3. Chinese traders are worried that other exchanges might pull a Gox too and hence a part of them will aim for the fiat exit door, depressing the price.
4. 1 and 2 add another reason for PBoC to want to "protect the people" and pull the plug on the other exchanges before a large scale Goxxing happens.
5. When/if 4 happens, we will soon discover how much is the impact on price on western exchanges. It might as well be the final test (bit like the "Silk Road bust" test last year) and bring the decoupling that everyone here seems to be expecting.

Think about it for a second. If you held leveraged trades on Houbi and you were told you had 2 days to close them out before there were no more leveraged trades, what would you do? You would close them out. Since its a bear market, there were many more shorts - so shorts closed and it spurred a small rally.

Meanwhile if you were a HFT trader and new that you wanted to retire from the exchange and bitcoin trading now that HFT will be charged fees, would you sell your positions while the market was rallying? Hell no. You want the best price. So you let the market go up and hope it continues so you can get a better price. But once the market started selling off, you BETTER sell now and get out.

That is what we are seeing.

Anybody notice that its now Monday in China and the exchange volume is drying up?

I think this is what the future looks like folks.

Today Bitpay is coming with a huuuuuge announcement right?

http://willyreport.wordpress.com/


 

Crash to double digits incoming.

Er, sorry to have to ask, but how can they bid for 48,013 BTC if there are only 29,656.51306529 BTC for sale?

As I understood from the USMS specs, if someone places mutiple bids that add up to more than the 10 lots, some of the bids will lose for sure -- those with lowest price, or those submitted later if they have the same price.  What am I missing?

Also, the auction is for 9 lots of 3000 BTC and one of 2,656.51306529  BTC.  So they bid for 16 lots of 3000; what are those 13 extra bitcoins? The SM fee?

EDIT - presumably they discarded the lowest bids and submitted to the USMS only bids for 10 blocks with the highest sydicate bids, is that it?

This one is getting heavily chewed into.

What about july 24th?

Somebody seems to have a really big pile of BTC he can dump all the time ...

Glad to see you're well.
I'll never forget the crash after your last recommendation.
What do you say to the total inflation in ripple (fixed supply untill it's not)

The money revolution will not be televised.  Fight the power!



Bonus points:  Name the revolutionary money service in the pic

The paypal situation is going to lead to a spectacular rally once some of the big merchants start accepting it... which they have already said that they will! Don't listen to the naysayers claims that they sell instantly and bring the price down. Remember people need to buy the coins in order to spend them... and the legitimacy that is brought will have profound network affects.

why would bitcoin goes to 0$???

You dear sir is right! It won't or shant go that low. The only (killer) argument to buy bitcon is to buy drugs. So it shall stabilise around $10 like it was for so long (the only true demand). But then again I could be wrong.. According to Adam Africa is buying BTC. We might indeed see $10k soon.

Almost all disposed mobile phones and old models go straight to Africa and India and are re-sold for a couple of bucks. The 3rd world is pretty mobile

The daily cash flow diagram of BTC economy is as follows (always totalling zero):

+ the purchases of existing holders
+ the purchases of new holders
- the sales of existing holders
- the value of new mining
-----------------------------------------
0.

When the price rises, the value of new mining goes up, giving possibility for more new money to come in. When it rises really high, also the existing holders sell in increasing quantities, absorbing all the new money and eventually forcing the price down. (BUBBLE PHASE).

When the price falls, the value of new mining goes down, but is still there. New money is sluggish to enter because price is in a downtrend. The existing holders largely need to absorb the mining, leading to further decline. (DOWNTREND).

When even the existing holders in large quantities throw in the towel and want to cash out, the price quickly falls until it meets a floor due to rising interest from new holders (and their fiat also buys much more coins, also mining value is very low). (CAPITULATION, SEEDS OF A NEW RISE)


Now, if the ecosystem would eventually die, we assume that new holders would not ever be coming and the existing holders would one at a time throw in the towel. Then the only ones to buy both the coins from the defectors + the newly mined coins, would be the other existing holders. In this case the price would go down (similar to DOWNTREND above) but even sharp falls would not ignite a new lasting uptrend.

This pattern has happened to many, if not the majority, of altcoins. The difference that sheds light to Bitcoin's situation is that no altcoin that eventually died or is in a terminal decline, has made successive booms before that. It has always been the tulip mania -style one bubble and then bust and die. Bitcoin has made several bubbles and survived as many busts, making the chances of survival from this one also, much higher.


Bitcoin is much more usable now than 12 months ago when the price was 4 times higher. Unless the actual ecosystem goes into decline, I would not worry of Bitcoin dying. IF the ecosystem goes into decline, though, the price is already likely in a trash, because markets tend to forecast such events. Considering the price, I have no reason to remove the STRONG BUY from Bitcoin though. Just make sure you operate with funds that you are comfortable with.

What´s up with the USD swaps supply on Finex
Lenders have left the building?

This is bearish right? Also the walls look like they are about to be tested on Bitstamp and BFX simultaneously..

Well, to the delusional bulls out there, the price is decreasing slowly (which is good for you), it gives you a wide window of time to rethink your positions, I think if you bought at less than $100 and you didnt cash out a bit of your holdings yet, then it is really time to think about taking some profits while you still can, because once we go down, it will take a long time to recover...

Call me whatever u want, bulltard etc, but I aint selling shit...

Back in the day I mined myself a nice ol' stash of coins, saw them bubble to over $25 each (hory sheet!), bubble popped and the future was bleak for what seemed like an eternity. It dragged on and on, the trolls were having an absolute field day. Sound familiar? I'm ashamed to admit that the trolls got the better of me I lost faith and sold my entire stash under ~$11each


I SHOULD have put my coins in cold storage, stepped away from the keyboard, lived my life, and not wasted so much time and energy on it. So, that's what i'm doing this time. I can think of a few others that would benefit from the same advice.

That's gambling in general and nothing to do with Bitcoin. Bitcoiners didn't hold at <$20 for two years because they wanted to get rich. They were awed by the tech.

I do a bit of everything. But i'm using the 15 min to show when the ext big movement will come.   And it will come in in the next hour or so imho

I see nothing odd.

Ah, this

Well, its definitely odd.. but is it important? It looks to be someone just fluffing the volume, possibly testing a HFT bot. No fees, so its not like there are repercussions to it like on USD exchanges.

Question: Is the whole world shorting bitcoin, or just bitcoiners?

SEC investigating Bitcoin companies is all over Reddit. This is a bigger deal than most realize. The SEC can shut down exchanges for contributing to price manipulation or being willfully ignorant of such activity while profiting from it.

$10k before 10,000 pages on this thread come on!

I just don't get it, it went $7 and you are complaining, what will you do when we hit sub $1xx ?

ETF officially announced...
Still a rumor or do you have some concrete news about this?

we also got the promise to see 377 until some time ago.

No no you it's the Tradingview chat, you can check the chat history even like right now.

the manipulation is REAL.

Personally I hope that the crypto-ETFs will never take off. Or it will end like the gold and silver paper market.

I don't know, but the SEC presumably wants more than just "it is not illegal".  AFAIK, the SEC was created after the 1929 stock market collapse to bar sale of stocks that are likely to collapse.  That could harm big investors, too. 

So, I would guess that their approval depends on their estimate of the future of bitcoin.  (And they may also consider the likelihood of the fund being goxed, perhaps.)

True, and this is how Havelock and other bitcoin "stock exchanges" have been working.  But the US would probably go after the foreign ETF if they sell to US citizens/residents.

Will 2k fall today?

Or 2.2k?

I hear ya.  Is it just me or has anyone else been delaying things until BTC decides to go up in price again?

It is a bit painful.  We are perhaps a little "overinvested" right now.  Sure, we can sell coins right now (not even at a loss of what we paid originally) but it is a horrible time to sell, so we wait, and wait and wait.    

In the mean time, we could really use a new couch, new carpet, have a zero percent credit card that we are just delaying paying because we don't really want to sell coins and then Christmas is just around the corner.  The kids really want a nice Christmas.  Hopefully we are at least back to $600 by then?  I can hope anyways.

Number of transactions very close to an ATH. Interesting.

https://blockchain.info/it/charts/n-transactions?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

In bitcoinland nothing is what it seems, and more of the times it ends at the very opposite of the majority´s expectations.

People are depositing too much faith in the ETF.

If we depend on the Winkilevos to succeed that means that we are fucked.

More bad news for Bitcoin  



"Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic Spaceship in catastrophic explosion and crash: One pilot dead and another critical as experimental plane blows up on test flight over California"

how much longer until we are not in a period of time considered critical?

http://www.coindesk.com/australian-government-soon-hold-9-million-bitcoin-auction/

24518BTC for sale. Will Tim Draper take this chance to average down?

Stop ruining my riff on the "it's only a loss if you lock it in" bull logic.  


 

Please remember, a lot of selling in the hopes of buying more at a cheaper price, I think not a single bitcoin involved person has completely turned his back on BTC.
Heck, even ShroomsKit is still crying on this forum... consider it a bullish sign.

In the meanwhile al the coins being dumped now are also being bought.

Even the chinese are getting back in...

The only one who's going to be really crying are those buying back in last, among ShroomsKit will be one of them.

Well if we go really low there will be more than one problem, Yeah people might buy but hashrate will collapse. Now if there are miners that can create 51% out there that opens a lot of bad possibilities.

Ignore him, he is just trolling.

Bitcoin as an experiment is a huge success. The question was whether something like this backed by nothing can have actual value, and the answer is a resounding yes.

It's impossible to lose money if you don't sell.

I agree with you, except also, that I was thinking the same thing when it was bumping along at $390

...and yet difficulty is up and the number of transactions is at its highest.

I have discussed at length in the other thread why it is naive to assume that miners (well most of the ones that matter i.e. industrial ones) have to dump their bitcoins in order to pay bills.

They have several other revenue streams that can cover these costs.

but what if higher transactions translates to more coins being bought off exchange?

that sound like a pretty bullish scenario would you not agree?

That would be like the equivalent of the end of Mt Gox. It would remove the Sword of Damocles and confidence would boom. That one million bitcoins would be eaten like chow in a mess hall.

I always wondered why the private keys to those coins weren't destroyed. That would have boosted confidence I imagine

FTFY

"For anyone complaining about the current price of bitcoin, remember it has more than doubled over the last 12 months."

~Bitcoin Jesus
Oct 5th.

So is depression and despair all it takes to get this bubble started.

OK then.  
Bitcoin is dead!  It is going nowhere!  

(we can go up now)

I thought we already have several boring months of consolidation?  It has been a very long year.

Has the Bitcoin price ever really flat lined?  I think it has been fairly steady for a while.  All of October was around $350.  

$205 would shake out alot of the short sellers.

Can you say more about this "failed attempt to consolidate"? Who was trying to consolidate it and why do you think they failed?

Idk, this kind of language is just so tired. Most people here don't actually understand market dynamics and just repeat the same blather about pumps and dumps.

I don't disagree with you though, it's a scary time to go long, but at the same time - also a scary time to short.

Unless Bitfinex goes offline when the next breakout begins. Then you will be stuck with fiat. These unregulated exchanges tend to do that during panics.

So the Winklevoss twins did not even mention the COIN ETF at Money 20/20, is that right?

I suppose that there are restrictions about what one can say in public about an ETF before it is approved by the SEC.  But they did talk a lot about it before, e.g. on BloombergTV, right?

Could their silence be somehow related to the alleged freezing of SMBIT by the SEC?

The head article by Tuur was taken down.  (Tuur is the guy who once spoke wonders of Neo&Bee, right?)

I listened to a bit of the interview, it was not clear to me what the guy meant.  The phrase could be understood as "that fund is now using OKCoin's platform (i.e. servers + software + support personel) to trade its own shares, not bitcoin".  No?  (That would be great news for OKCoin and their VC investors, irrelevant for bitcoin & traders.)

Everybody needs to relax.

People have some serious issues if they are worrying about a 20 dollar drop in price.

One thing is for certain though, the bids are deeper than when we were here a couple of months ago which suggests a more positive perception from most people in regards to the market. Now, we clearly saw it was OKcoin and China that led the price spike last week and now it has fizzled to where we might have expected to be if we had had steady growth from the "bottom". China is now being bearish with this Huobi news and it wouldn't surprise me to see the western exchanges take the lead which theoretically could lead to a much more sustainable rise. OKcoin trading is a joke with no fees and 20X leverage its just a bunch of gamblers trying to out luck each other and should not be somewhere the market looks towards to dictate a market price.

Too much supply.

100k - Winklevoss etf dump
50k - dpr coins
80k more possible dpr coins
?? - Mtgox coins which may be converted to USD (source: kraken)

http://hereisthecity.com/en-gb/2014/12/04/almost-300m-in-bitcoin-spent-during-black-friday-and-cyber-monda/page/1/

Is a joke, normaly merchant converte in fiat in 1 day...

Then btc crash @ 100$, impossible.

There is no date set, but they still have some 94'000 BTC to auction. From the way they split the coins today, it seems that they are planning another 50'000 BTC auction next, and then presumably one for the final 44'000.

I don't believe there will be any "news" that will spark a rally or crash. Except for the ETF. I'm not sure why this is put on hold but I'm sure they have their reasons. Anyway, long-term I'd say it's far more sane to keep your coins than to sell them. If you're a day-trader you may find yourself with good profits or huge loss within this situation, so move cautiously.

From the points above, I'd keep the 2 most important:
- 200k recovered frozen bitcoins from MtGox could be returned to their owners at any time.
- Big bottleneck in the fiat entries. Won't be resolved until proper regulated bitcoin exchanges or ETFs hit the market.

Both are very important aspects for a healthy way up. Now, if you want my opinion, retesting lower levels will only be caused as a ''flash crash'', the way it happened so many times before. But IMHO, it will take A LOT of coins to retest such levels at once, even though I don't rule it out as a possibility. If you check out the daily charts, there are two constant walls covering both up and down possibilities. We only see movement in case of someone from either side decides to make a bold move. Then a damped oscillation graph occurs and there's a slight movement towards the previous level.

TL;DR: Both of the above must happen for a proper CCMF. 

I disagree that it has more downside than upside potential. I see a drop of $100 from here as a small chance of happening but $100 rise could happen at any point. However if your constantly watching charts and are ready to make a move when the market does then you can easily limit risks on both scenarios.

This is the wide spread mentality right now. Bitcoin tends to launch when you least expect it.

The price was manipulated more than 100 dollars higher last month because a suspected 3bn hedge fund was rumoured to be using one of the exchanges to trade so your point is clearly wrong.

Until a US exchange opens with decent depth this thin market volatility will continue. But ultimately demand will overrun even a few forex jokers with twenty thousand coins colluding the price up and down at will.

1 Ripple = 0.0175 USD.

Is it worth spending a couple of hundred dollars on Ripple incase it explodes?

They are giving away free bitcoins? How could that possibly not be bullish?

i wonder where 1 million dollars counted from

what if miner only sell 10% of there mined coin every month

Mining is just a different way to buy bitcoins.

You could deal with the exchanges, pay a premium at localbitcoins, use your credit card on various sites paying 10-20% or buy some Bitcoin miners and slowly accumulate bitcoins over time.

"Waahh...they have to pay for electricity". Ya...I have to pay the exchange to get my bitcoins. What's the difference?

Do you think it's all poor people with no incomes mining bitcoins? My co-worker who I know mines bitcoins has a six figure income. He mines because he wants to get a lot of bitcoins and enjoys hardware and technology. He can certainly afford to pay for electricity without cashing out his bitcoins.

And those that are doing OK are saving coins and waiting for the next gen 14/16nm FinFet machines to hit the market in early to mid 2015. As long as difficulty goes down that is a quite comfortable position. But it also means we might have a wave of coins on the market in 2-3 months time.

You can't trust the poor with money--it's a scientifical fact.

Sorry, I do agree with you, was being sarcastic.  

Check it on https://blockchain.info

I thought the expense was to due to rising difficulty, and that determines the cost of production, which in turn help determine the market valuation..

thats impossible because the hardware will never roi that way because you have to consider how much coin can be mined per day.

btc emission as for now is 3600 coin per day

so

if i get profit of 3usd per coin that equal to 10800usd profit for ALL miner, 972000 usd every 3 month, but then you have to consider how many miner are there and if there is 275,536 Thash and each miner say... 3T, there roughly 91800 machine and each machine takes 10 usd per 3 month it never roi even if the miner priced at 300usd


edit ::: say... you got 9 usd per coin because free electricity, u still got 10usd per month

i have to disagree with that... nothing cost 0 usd.

So it's a pure supply/demand machine. Unlike metals, there is no real floor to the cost of production?

So the bubble-bust cycle is built-in to the protocol..

i see this way... miner process transaction, then they get paid in bitcoin

atm we are in this bear market because demand is less than production because miner are minting new coin  but within decades miner will not minting new coin anymore, just the transaction fee.  so i think then we will see how valuable bitcoin really is

And 1. the more the downtrend continues 2. and/or something in the world changes to spur adoption, the demand will not increase, and the price will not increase. Isn't it?

if i follow your logic then, bitcorn will soon be 10 usd, hashrate will plummet to just few giga because there is no incentives to mining and its all over for bitcorn mining industry... ppl who mining will do it for fun (and use pc and smartphones) and will not sell anyway. it will be the worst scenario and ultimate test to bitcorn existence.
even then i still believe that  bitcorn can endure such disaster and survive

well i guess you believe that bitcoin will boom or you dont.



for me its all about profit

Is anybody passionate about BTC & it's long term future?

If we get to 5000 USD I'm selling the majority of my holding & getting the fuck out, I'll probably keep some in cold storage just incase we do go to the moon.

But if we reach approx 5000 USD I am out & I don't care what happens in the long term.
If BTC can pay my mortgage off I'll remember it fondly & look to my next investment.

Ripple is dead.

RIP ripple.

friend of mine got in at $30 in 2011. He had to wait almost 2 years to become a happy man.

I think this is perfect time to invest in bitcoin. I mean, all bigger companies have started accepting bitcoin, price is stable as much is it possible...I think from now it can only go up. But that is just a my opinion.

Typical Wall Street

Shorts still near ATH  
USD   0.0274%   0.0712%   18,844,625.62 USD
BTC   0.0528%   0.0402%   22,353.69 BTC

Calm before the storm maybe? Who knows. I will just leave this here:

Remember how thrilled everyone was when stamp came back online?

I doubt it will be a problem. The retarget might be steep, but to be honest miners are an exceptionally irrational bunch. Moreso than catcoin.

Besides, it's winter in the northern hemisphere and Bitcoin would have to go a lot lower before the value of the heat generated by a miner loses it's edge over natural gas.

In stocks there are "bear markets" and "bull markets."

For an over simplified description:

Bears are pessimists
Bulls are optimists

Bears believe the price is going down
Bulls believe the price is going up

Why anyone who is involved with BTC enjoys being a "bear" is beyond my understanding.  Sure, bear markets are a part of the cycle but I would think logically being a long term "bull" makes more sense.

I've never seen you say anything remotely positive re: bitcoin.
Are you desperate for cheap coins because you missed out taking the plunge in the early days or something?