If it does not go back down I will not buy in ... it just seems too risky for me at this price whatever anyone wants to say about fundamentals, future growth etc ... I just can't bring myself to do it. If I miss the opportunity to ride the train so be it ... worse things have already happened in my life.

1. because big players created feeling of fear and pain by pumping and dumping.
2. they will collect cheap coins now. No one was willing to sell before :-)

lol, are you different ?  Do you want to buy high and sell low ?
1. if you believe in Bitcoin buy and hold.
2. if you want more btc/usd then trade but some win and other must lose.  
3. wait until price rise high enough and will be stable and hard to manipulate it ( maybe 5-10 years )

As of close, yesterday:



Drop the blue trendline down a bit and we are still on it.

Subconsciously or otherwise, that line is in people's heads and is affecting their long-term plans.

I came across this one :

I wouldn't call it scary, more a buying opportunity coming our way.

Obviously to take advantage of this you would need to sell some of your BTC and wait.

Don't forget reward halve

The further the price drops from the blue trendline, the more that trader sentiment is drawn to the trendline of 2012 as the underlying trend. I will be looking for signs of that divergence widening in future versions of this well designed infographic chart.

Not sure if i was totally clear:  If Y is a log instead of linear scale, the second "dip" will be above the line, so no longer a part of it.  If you mean the slope's too insignificant to make a difference, just change the time scale.

But also consider what it means if it doesn't.  This is also a possibility.

The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there".

There lies the problem. You choose what is bubble data and whatnot.

If this type of trend line meant anything... if we extrapolate from the year 2000 using  this chart

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 the FTSE should be around 50,000.

Nice, so you actually didn't pull your prediction out of your ass, but used (polynomial) regression on historical data (not sure if it's wise to exclude bubble data/outliers, though). I respect that.

But do you want to know what is the single biggest assumption you make in your analysis, an assumption that some (including me) would consider completely unfounded, and in fact completely unrealistic?

That there is a single underlying growth function that governed the price of btc over the entire course of the data you looked at, and will continue to govern it.

Sure, you're free to make this assumption. But with that assumption removed, your analysis falls apart.

I'm only showing that there's an extremely strong underlying trend outside of bubble data, which predicts a bitcoin price much lower than it is now. No need to get antsy

You're funny when you try too hard: I didn't suggest any method. I simply formulated the assumption made in sarc's analysis.

And "the result wouldn't differ much"? You're kidding, I hope. Simply (yet unrealistically) assuming that, say, growth was determined by one function up to January 2013, and another one following January 2013, would probably put us into the 500? 5000? (can't be arsed to calculate this now) range right now.

Which is obviously not where we are. Hence: unrealistic assumption as well, as noted above.

eh, sorry. my field (well, of sort) is foundations of mathematics, so I can get worked up over not knowing the (formal) premises of a method one uses.

anyway, I'm not even completely denying your point. I'm extremely cautious right now, and far from ruling out price will drop further. But I still consider it a distinct possibility that the fundamentals and public perception have changed enough for growth to continue from (roughly) where we are now. Time will tell.

Then please explain why your "bitcoin price (logged)" does not look anywhere similar (not even remotely) like any other bitcoin price log chart?

Biology? Bioinformatics?

No:

No you dont!

You might have accidentally done log(x+1)
because log(x) +1 would not matter, it would only shift the entire graph up on the y axis while your log(x+1) totally distorts it.

No. Add parenthesis just to be sure. Your graph is wrong, the one at bitcoincharts is correct.

oh boy

Why?


It noes not "linearize" it, it distorts it until it fits what you want to see.

Reality (this is what happened):
(a) The price increased 900% from 0.01 to 0.1
(b) The price increased 900% from 10 to 100

if you add your 1 to distort price movements then it would seem like it
(a) increased 10% from 1.01 to 1.10
(b) increased 900% from 11 to 101

So the gains during early period (a) are played down heavily while the gains at later period (b) remain as big as they were. This is neither a linear chart nor a log chart, its something completely meaningless (adding this $1 to all prices does not model any underlying concept or effect from reality, the $1 does not make any sense at all!) You applying dirty tricks to distort reality, to bend the curve until it matches your line, there is no reason to add the arbitrary amount of $1 to all prices before logging, you are manipulating other people with your made-up nonsense charts!

I'm afraid I'm seeing prof7bit's side of things here.

Yes, you should grab yourselfs a maths book and read it before you start posting nonsense plots of made up nonsense series agan. Good idea. Do it.

My bitcoins are none of your business. But you are free to do whatever you want with yours.
You can even plot log(2 pi cos(price + $42)) or whatever else you want and also make sure to try different values of 42 (maybe 42 Yen or 42 EUR) until the chart looks like you want it to look and then base your trading decisions on it.

@prof7bit

Calm down, please. You're going as far as accusing sarc of posting false information on purpose, when all that goes on in reality is a disagreement about the math behind what was posted here.

My take on it (already mentioned above, shortened version to follow):

I don't know exactly what sarc did in his model, but if the dispute between you and him boils down to plotting the data on a chart with a log n y-axis vs. plotting the data on a chart with a log n+1 y-axis, then there is no dispute. The two are, for our purposes, equivalent.

If that's not the point of your dispute, I'm sorry that I missed it.

You are missing the point. A trendline is to best match the development of the price, and if it does match it is consistent and can be used as a model for an expectation.
One could even estimate the "offset" systematically to better match the graph and this would be as valid or even more valid than doing otherwise.

I'm game for it. If you're looking at base notation, I seem to recall having used [for example] loge(x) and log10(x). Obviously, if you could use real notation, it would be different.

I believe prof clarified things a little at one point and sarc continued to assert the incorrect thing as correct [ log(x+1) ].

Do you really mean:

log(x+1)

as in

log_(n)(x+1), where x = USD/btc, and n is the base you chose? If so, maybe that's a technique used in statistical modeling, but it certainly is not correct per se.

Valid point. I forgot that trading started below 1 USD.

Anyway, to make it a bit more interesting for the general population of this thread, summary time!

(1) sarc's exact modelling techniques aside, the graph he posted is not entirely different from similar results that have been posted before. sarc's regression analysis sees the price below 30 USD right now (correct me I'm wrong, please), while the others had us in the realm of 50 USD (does anybody have a link to one of those?).

(2) regression analysis is a well-founded statistical technique, but by no means guaranteed to accurately predict the future price.

(2) Math is hard. Let's go shopping.

C'mon maths gurus ... which one of you finally ceded the point and decided the only thing to do was to buy more ?
Which line or angle was the final straw ?

lebing, we are taking the piss

sarc ... it might the last one you draw

sarc's got pencils and I've got a sharp compass ... that any good ?

And still everyone who sold into the 115 wall last week remain in the red.

You can bet that quite a few:

I wonder when people will start to panic. 

You just started trading, right? I'm not going to pretend that I'm an old hand at this, but at least I learned that you don't simply draw a line through the points of the past 12 hour, expecting it will continue like that for another 12.

When I say "trajectory", I take into consideration the momentum of the current down trend. It might reignite, but right now, it seems we've entered a calmer period. If it continues that way, we'll see spikes of maybe +/- 5 USD around where we are now, but, no, not "70".

awww, look at the bears coming out of the woodwork... agreeing with each other how obvious all of this was.

'k. Put your money where your mouth is and make a prediction where this trend takes us, short term. Everything else ("Silk road ... yadda yadda ... Bitcoin economy... wasn't stable in May after all") is just cheap talk.

I'll begin: within the next 24 hours, price won't go significantly below 100. If it falls below 100, it will rebound sharply to a value above 100 shortly afterwards. More likely though, we'll continue trading around 110.

Your turn

I wonder what mr manipulator wants to do now...

It's going to be interesting the next few days, that's for sure.  Just glad I got fiat should this continue to do what I suspect it's going to do when that million+ wall falls.

Another likely scenario is that we just hover around here for another 3 months with minimal volume, growing back some balls.

EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?

Agreed ... no guarantee of the bounce if we crashed as there would still likely be this 'overhang'. And it would likely put many people off.
Re investors, the biggest problem IMO is not price, it is liquidity. There is no out ... thats why we are experiencing what is happening now.

I tend to agree with you that we are in the now in long slow slide phase of bubble deflation (slow in Bitcoin terms could mean anything!)

Glad you apologised for the chart ... I have put my compass away  

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

You do realize even this chart, although used to explain the bear case, with it's extremely low assumptions (it calculates the FV of Bitcoin on $25.30) predicts a price of >$10,000 per Bitcoin in 500 days?

I'll just leave this here*


* I'm not advocating this model

I just woke up so I might have made a mistake. Did I misunderstand the chart?

log(25.3+1) = 1.42 (currently for $25.3 and 1.42 scores)
log(10782.5+1) = 4.0328 (in 500 days)

My math seems to work out, so the other option is I completely misunderstood the chart 

You and rpitella are very alike.

To 105,
12k btc.

It's because it's total nonsense based on nothing.

I am pretty sure yesterday there were 39k till 100. (yesterday meaning CET 23-24)
And that"wall" of 6k wasn't there.

well Rampion, here goes... I'll be attempting your special technique of selling at the bottom to maximise (everyone elses) profits

Zoom out... it's not so bad yet.

Short term though, I agree. Money is leaving the market. But the question is, is that a trend reversal, or only a short term phenomenon.

Not a sophisticated comment as I've only been reading this thread for a week - but that so looks like a wave about to break..

ah, yes I forgot, to a simpleton all questions look equally simple.

what makes you think I haven't already? I thought this was the "theorize baselessly about the long-term prospects of bitcoin" thread, not the "explain your short-term trading rationale" thread. at least that's what it increasingly looks like ^__^

Someone sold some Bitcoin into the bids which moved the price down.

Nobody purchased many Bitcoin directly off the asks which meant the price didn't rise much.

This happened more than once and I suspect it will happen again.

Edit : A lot of people appear to agree with this as there's a load of orders for cheaper Bitcoins sitting between $105 and $106

I agree with Rampion. When you look at the registration date of all those crying about manipulators or that Bitcoin will "die" when it goes back to more sustainable price levels, you'll see that usually they came on board March 2013 or so. Again, look up a price chart of 2011. It went from 32 to 2.

Having seen actual manipulation in the Bitcoin market with 30-50k bid/ask walls, I can tell you that it's probably the least manipulated it ever was because it has grown so large, and actually most of the times, large orders aren't fake and are filled.

Somebody is playing a wall game over at btc-e first it was a buywall at 109 now its an askwall at the same place.

No the previous one was sold into and partly removed.

He can dump in small portions all day. I think resulting sell price will be much higher than stupid dump at once...

miners are selling their profits of the past 3 weeks

speculators as of yet are still holding

Looks like the dumping is over. We will be around this level till next sunday. Then we'll have another 20k dump and a price drop to 70.

Good site, but the price should be showed at the right side.

has your blood sugar got low again?

Morning sarc

You trying to imply something?

Do I really need to pull pull out the charts to show you I was right (time of writing was June 7, 1 pm CET)?

Now, what happened 15 hours afterwards is another matter, but I do remember saying there's a good chance we'll test 50 again. Time for a new round of predictions+time frame?

Thing is, if you get to buy at 50 most likely price will pierce through 50 and then fall even lower, might bounce straight up, might not. That's the dilema, when to catch it.

it'll bounce back, there's no reason for the drop - people are just dumping and buying back in for extra coin, don't be one of their victims!

As much as I would LOVE it to go to 50, what makes you people think its not a repeat from 3rd of May?

You read 100% correct. There is no Bitcoin economy. (except for silkroad of course) I hope you are not another of hippies preaching that.

The only reason why somebody would go and exchange fiat for bitcoin right now (not counting speculation, store of value) is to spend it on Silkroad. Nobody in right mind would go and exchange it to btc only to buy something they could have bought instantly with traditional methods. And the only thing that they can't, are silkroad goods. YES if you already have bitcoins then you might use them on other stuff, if you mine, you will use them. But this is minority of people. I'm talking about general public

Fuck, how much fucking cash do you fucking need you fuck? 

So how come, someone buys 4k the price stays about the same and if someone dumps 4k we enter freefall?

Gentlemen, do not forget that there is a guy who bought 400k USD worth of bitcoin causing 4USD slippage, watching price go down 

Indeed, this provides opportunity though. The imperfectness of the market is what allows us to outperform it

Unfortunately it is very very hard to value Bitcoin because it is unknown what the exact growth rate of Bitcoin (many years of slow growth discounts the future value quite hard) will be, there is non-zero chance another cryptocurrency will overtake it and because it is an asset it doesn't produce anything (as Buffet says: an ounce of gold will in a hundred years still be an ounce of gold). I do believe it is significantly undervalued today but my this is based on many assumptions that can be flawed.

Most native English speakers have appalling grammar and spelling these days !

To me, it seems that Bitcoin is resting on the 6mo-exp trendline with low volume, and $.12 is the new $0.005.

There is not much to do then hold (= buy bitcoins with everything that you can spare).

It is becoming unlikely that we'll see $300 this year.

I am fine, thank you.

just watch and learn

what i'm smoking only bitcoin can buy  

The three main school of BTC are:


* It's 2011 all over, is crashing now! -By Bears et. al.
*This time it's different; to the moon -By Bulls et. al.
*Bitcoin does what it wants; we can't predict -By Rest et. al.

* bitcoin can be compared to neither commodities nor fiat currency at this stage.  It doesn't have the trading volume to be considered a currency (you can't get in and out quickly and you can't use leverage) and it doesn't have a substantial supply/demand market, nor a real 'use' (yet) to be considered comparable to a commodity
* as such, drawing any kind of line on a chart is utterly pointless, since the usual 'rules' (which are dubious in any case) certainly won't apply here.  Even more so considering that past history (pre-April, say) did not include many traders such as myself.  Now it does, so previous trends can be ignored since we now have a lot of price manipulation going on
* price movements are currently being caused entirely by speculation (or 99% at least)
* steady, sustainable price growth will only occur with a much higher volume of trades and with mass adoption
* the volatility of the price is what has attracted day/short term traders
* the illiquidity of the market is what has caused fiat to leave in recent weeks (this was my reason, it became too difficult to capitalise on price fluctuations unless they were arounf 5% due to lack of bid volume)

Fair enough, but why do you think it isn't sensible?

No, not at all. I bought in with no idea which way it would go, with the intention of watching it very closely (almost to the exclusion of anything else), ready to cut my losses if the prices dropped more than 20% after I had bought in, and to either sell or hold if the price were to rise.  That's day trading, or short term trading, defined.

One difference I notice between 2011 and now, is that back then most people were taken by suprise and weren't prepared for the fall. Now it's like everyone's expecting it and preparing for it, which makes me kind of worried that it's not going to happen at all. Maybe it will just consolidate here for a long time, make a few more short dips into the double digits and then move up leaving all the sad bears behind. I'm still speculating on a larger dip, but I see the above as a serious possibility.

That's the problem, in 2011 nobody had these kind of graphs as there was no precedent. Now everyone's looking at the 2011 graph and think they know exactly what's going to happen next. I don't think it works that way, it would be nice ofcourse to have that kind of certainty and predictability, but something tells me there is a little twist to the plot in store for us.

When you see a trap like that, jump it ? 

Those who held 100% fiat and waited for the price to drop to $2 one more time, back in 2011. Ooops  

Don't the dots make your eyes pop?

I'd be interested in seeing a plot of those two graphs with the right volume axis being in terms of the percentage of total minted BTC for values on the X axis.

I"ve only been around watching the BTC for the last 3 months, and one thing that stands out when zooming out to the full picture volumes where much higher when BTC was valued lower (and when there were less BTC minted). Now it takes less BTC from whales now to "move" the market. So maybe this is because there are more BTC in the market. Is that a good theory?

EDIT: My theory is probably wrong, but it's an interesting observation, and it would be good to see a chart that takes into account the available BTC participating in volume for such charts

The whale who bought at 95 with slippage to 110 isn't going to be too happy I think. Will he cut his losses and sell?

I was thinking that as well and can only come to one conclusion: panic selling based on nothing. People STILL do that? Seriously?

$2 won't happen

Dips are not being too deep, bear is on, but the bottom is closer than some this-is-2011 doomsayers are expecting.

(PS: If you have fiat, now is the time to buy ;-))

Do you have one of those for when the price was reaching $260?

What are the data points? Daily lows? weighted average price? (I think a scatter chart with trend line only makes sense for the latter).

Ahhh, I see your point. I really don't think double digits are sustainable either - sustainable being the key word. We may have buyers come in and jack the price up but there are many many people who would like to sell in the $100 + range, so I don't see a prolonged rally unless those buyers start coming in force. For that we need something - news, another bank to go under, interest rates to really rise, etc.

I don't like being in Fiat but I get the feeling we will slowly settle below 100. I worked some numbers by studying the chart (and past charts) and came up with a bounce off the $90 range on our way down.  The other points on the way down (not saying we reach all of them) is 82, 68 and 60. Maybe low 50's but I think the buying won't let that happen, too many people want it. Depending on how long the downward movement goes on, I'd "guess" the $68 region is more likely, we'll have to see how people react.

When I traded many years ago I was almost exclusively a candlestick guy. Well, I started going through the old "crash" last night and comparing it to the new one. I broke the chart down into an hourly one (and there abouts) and focussed on some of the key volume spikes on the move down. But, I also was looking at the formation of the old (2011) bubble and what was interesting is that on the way up, there was a disturbance in the smooth rise, and on the way down that disturbance clearly acted as support. So, instead focussing on the move down (which I looked closely at) I was also trying to correlate things to the move up. In a way, you can call it like an expected "mirror approach". The current bubble is not quite as pronounced, but just observe the chart and look for these mirror spots. I'm not saying it will work, but it doesn't really disagree with the move downs support levels. I did some eyeball averaging as well and it all seemed to add up. The bounces are quite predictable (but I'm not really a trader per say). That is the short of it.

Yes it does. Sum of all bids is simply the total amount of USD that's sitting on the orderbook wanting to buy BTC. Sum of asks is the total amount of BTC for sale on the orderbook.

So 'ask sum' in the bid sum/ask sum RATIO is defined in BTC is it ?
Look at the chart below, which has 'Bid Sum [USD]' on one side and  'Ask Sum [kBTC]' on the other and see if this confirms your theory

Hint ... it doesn't

you're a bear now  wtf did they do?  
lol

MtGox can do wire transfer to anywhere in the world including US

people are selling because they are scared

Or perhaps you should be greedy when others are fearful.

I will sell some of my coins when I see an opportunity I can't miss, but I'm not following the sheep mentality and help this 'crash' become a self-fulfilling prophecy just because some people believe it has to go just like in 2011 and want to convince everyone to sell just so they can get cheap coins themselves. Bitcoin doesn't care what anyone wants.

Who the believe? The one quoting the oracle of Omaha or the one quoting George Bush ....

Evidence? LOL. You only have blind hope yourself. We'll see, you keep your fiat and I'll keep my coins.

2 month volume chart:



nothing to see here.

updated chart, dashed line is extrapolated - in case you missed it, the price is still going down...

Nice charts, but "evidence"? They show what we all know: it's been going down. Volume has been low. We know.

It's not evidence of future performance. 

The time to buy in is the lows of a bear market when everyone is crying scared. Looking around this thread, we can't be far off.

Funny, your post made me think that about you ...

You seriously believe this is evidence? I can see it's evidence that the price has been going down the past couple of weeks, but anyone can see that by just looking at a simple chart. But this is hardly evidence that the future price is going to go further down. It could be that the downward trend continues, but then again it could not. There's no clear evidence either way. We hit a pretty hard wall at 90 earlier, and yesterday and today the price could not even stay below 100 with a very thin ask side. Bid sum keeps increasing, while ask sum is stagnant or slowly decreasing. I don't know, I can definitely smell the fear around here, that's the only thing I am certain of. Your 'evidence' is surely not very convincing to me.

And what about that? this is not an evidence for you???

Instead of evidence you people really should talk about probabilities or indications instead. Evidence is a way too strong word to use when trying to predict the behaviour of a market.

im not gonna make a 4 pages post to show you there're tons of indicators telling us we're going down, first bcs im too lazy & second bcs it's not in my interest to show it to others people.

 

I think the market is too small for that, too easily influenced/manipulated. TA works better on the FOREX than at this size. Besides, all indicators are _lagging_.

Quotes tend to work best when you use the same words that the original person actually said.


WRT the actual quote you mangled, I actually think it was a pretty good catch by Bush. Can you imagine what the media would have done with a clip of him actually saying "shame on me"?

I think there is some cultural bias in the meaning of "evidence". Anyway, I understand what you mean.

The problem with the whales is they are really too big & I don't see any whaler...

Nope

(but I don't see the plankton running for the abyss either)

Fellas let's try to stay on topic here. This is neither the time nor the place to compare penis sizes.  

 

WTH is Lisa doing? That is just obscene!!!!

Not my quote, but I love it

I simply dont understand why people still draw those lines on graphs.. all this time i have learnt just one thing.. those graphs are utterly complicated and completely useless for anyone without knowledge of TA..and all it takes is a single whale to plunge the market and make all the analysis useless.. why do people even do TA for bitcoin??

Yeaaah i am not on the forum all the time like you sarc.. i have patients to deal with.. but seriously has any of the TA ever proven correct??

I have the feeling confidence is slowly coming back today. And unless we see another big dump prices might slowly go up to 105+ again.
I would buy back in if i did any trading 

wasn't this predicted...

Nope, black marker pen and a red crayon  

yes very low volumes, but I'm not surprised:

Why would buy now the one who waits cheap coin?
And why would sell to whoever could sell for 130-100?

I believe that when we see another direction, trading volume will be better.

Nobody's ever gonna buy that $26 shit

rolf

What? Like 15% is..

Alright, I'm sick of that silly graph with the prive layed on a scale of "time since began".

That f.king graph has been posted every 8 hours or so since the a couple of weeks after the last  burst. Gee, I get it, a few folks heard about this 'logarithmic scale' thingy and now they think they are Albert Einstein. Sorry to burst your bubble (pun intended) but most of the people in here went to school.

Why would you post plots that are factually wrong?

Eaten during a [single] 15k sell.
lol. Well, you said 40% of the CASH/USD that is VISIBLE on the orderbook, is waiting for sub 26.

Total cash in orderbook: 9.5mill
Cash above 26: 7.8mill
Cash 26&below: 1.7mill
%USD below 26: 18%

Bids above 26: 140,000
Bids 26&below: 352,000 <- excluding [0, 1)
%BTC below 26:  60%

-----

On a side note, just hit new daily low of 88.70.

Alright, I'm sick of that silly graph with the prive layed on a scale of "time since began".

That f.king graph has been posted every 8 hours or so since the a couple of weeks after the last  burst. Gee, I get it, a few folks heard about this 'logarithmic scale' thingy and now they think they are Albert Einstein. Sorry to burst your bubble (pun intended) but most of the people in here went to school.

Why would you post plots that are factually wrong?

I can feel the dump approaching...

(Noob) Itīs a long time I see this chart and I still don t understand it... Can someone explain me what are the 4 lines ? (Sorry) Or giving a link if there is an explanation somehere else

I know right...totally cheated.  I want my money back.  

Thanks but once again, I'm looking for a good point to short with the lowest possible risk. Just dumping everything on the market right now might cause me to miss the bottom. Yes, I believe we are that close to it.

Shit... that is a picture of me on Galveston beach. What exactly are you trying to say here chief?? 

I think the down move is excellerating. I was looking at the long red candles and they are getting larger in size on this down move. The volume is still not huge so it looks like we are building towards a very hard move down. Now, I might play the bottom of that one if there is volume, huge volume.

Notice what I'm saying and the last red large hammer candle...
It is called... THE QUICKENING!  

quoting 2 screens of post for this? 

That's ok, just stick to what you're good at. Pencils, pencils, I must have more pencils 

heheheh, really, I thought my spell check was broken! I couldn't figure it out and it just hit me now...
(This is what happens when you live in a foreign country for years....)

Certain people here are claiming that nothing being said in a silly speculation forum is affecting the price, on the other hand the same people can say things like "if you had listened to us and sold you would have been much better off now".

Of course what is being said in here matters, not much maybe, but there are people affected by what's being said here, even the troll box can influence people in their buying / selling.

The price declined just fine without me posting here, so I hope you guys can acknowledge that I do this simply because it's fun.

Actually meant to post this here:

Just a reminder for what will inevitably happen again:


Was the smart money buying or was it selling the bounces? You tell me.

just because of your arbitrary hand-draw line ? The volume decrease, nothing tell us there is a new trend

Just a random observation from blockchained :



I can't help but to notice 2 things :
* we just touched and bounced off the dotted line - long-term trendline - which has provided good support since day 1.
* "mining factor" is almost at an all time low, and has been dropping like crazy lately.

Thoughts ?

Thats the same thing you did yourself a while back with your chart where the y axis was calculated as

y = log(price + C)  ; C arbitrarily chosen to make it look "good" (or bad)

It appears I've gotten a bad reputation amongst some bulls. I was spreading FUD or whatnot.
Well, now's the time to troll the bears and test their position!
Will you really hold your ground?  

The crash of 2012:




Yup, it was all 2011 again.
Except it wasn't.


Now if you'll excuse me, I have bears to troll.  

If only I had done the same. Funny, your numbers matched mine...

Thanks for sharing your observations with selling pressure as I haven't been watching much. I have seen the larger blocks in buys stagnate though.

And look at this double double reverse bottom descending triangle. What do you all think? 

I was debating on which Bird to name it, I like Dropping/Rising Emu. My other choice is A Dropping/Rising Big Bird.
Let's see how this pattern develops and then we can decide. Bookmark this, I think we are on to something.

I just see a vote for "Boobs and Fat Hanging Arm Pattern." I shouldn't count the chickens before the eggs are hatched.
Hmmmm, anything more guys? Perhaps we see how it develops to help the naming.

These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.

This, both price and silkroad user number are expected to rise with bitcoin adoption (and thus time).  I bet there are other services/metrics that show a similar correlation with the bitcoin price (bitcointalk speculation posts perhaps). You can't conclude from this that silk road is the principal driver of price.

It would be cool if we dropped like this. I wonder if Shroomskit managed to sell at the recent high.