All posts made by darklight in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 2329942 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
My speculation for the next few days - a slow rise back up to just above 130, followed by a large dump and drop down to 126/127
2.
Post 2337504 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
I think if anything the lack of reaction to all the bad news lately is a great sign. The price has hardly moved despite all the problems
3.
Post 2347103 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
It would be brilliant if whoever put the original wall up was planning on pulling it before it got bought
4.
Post 2347407 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Wow some huge trades going on. Just saw 3000 BTC get bought.
It would seem that the main winner in this, as always, is mt gox
5.
Post 2349414 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
People be cashing out
6.
Post 2349544 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
People at 115 might not even have noticed yet. They probably put their bids in ages ago on the off chance
7.
Post 2361130 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Rampion - I hate to say it, but I am a bull. Maybe that is the wrong word though. I don't like labeling myself as anything, but I'm in this long term. Even if the price shot up, I want to remain a part of the biggest social experiment in the history of the world and not trade in and out of it.
That said, with my spending account I pre-ordered a Butterfly Labs Jalapeno today. I just thought in case the price drops I should spend my small reserve of coins, after all that is what they are for.
I know I may not even get the rig this year and when I do get it, it won't be able to mine anything but my point is to support the network in my own way. If it means just doing some of the transactions for .0001 BTC, then so be it. But in 15 years as my 5 BTC's are paying for my daughters college education I will also tell her I was helping a cause. And with some profit, as many of you will do, I will apply them to a greater good (outside my house!).
Hmmm, do I do the 7GH upgrade for $100 or hope that a firmware download is made available? Guess it won't matter come December/Jan or whenever it comes.
Rock on...
Thats incredibly brave of you, personally I would have just held the BTC. I assume you read all the threads where they haven't delivered etc? It could be that by the time you get it the difficulty will be so high that you never break even with it
8.
Post 2361370 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
If I really wanted to buy some hardware memento, I would be more inclined to get an ASICminer USB. At least you know you will actually get one
9.
Post 2400462 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Or it got bought, judging by the 8k volume
10.
Post 2507276 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Which Chinese exchange are people looking at?
11.
Post 2507409 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Yeah, thanks BitPirate thats a really hand site
12.
Post 2508759 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Good luck to all who are in. I'm staying out for now, it looks like standard tactics to raise the price with a big wall prior to a dump
13.
Post 2509518 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Why would anyone dump if the price is going up?
You know you actually make money if the price goes up.
I seriously think some people don't understand that.
You don't make any money until you sell. Price going up is great if you are looking to dump, you get more money for your coins
14.
Post 2538791 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Pretty happy to be on Bitstamp right now, I think we will see a few more big dumps from people cashing out of gox over the next day or two. My buys at 95 went through, and now I've sold them to do it all again
15.
Post 2538796 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
I suspect this arbitrage will last until Mtgox re-enables withdrawals. To be honest, I'm not so tempted to take advantage of it. I bought 25 BTC at Bitstamp under 100, and while moving it to gox would net me about $300, it doesn't feel worth the effort. My total bitcoin stash fluctuates by far more then $300 on an hourly basis, so it feels like nitpicking.
Move more over and sell and take a short position then. Afterall, it's weekend again, and the native Sunday dumper may re-appear this week.
The dumper would need balls of steel to bother selling on gox at this point in time, and the other markets don't have the depth for it to be worthwhile
16.
Post 2538852 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.
Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out
17.
Post 2539001 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.
Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out
"a chance". A 1 in 20 chance, for example, would imply a 5% risk premium.
And if you had for example 5k BTC to dump, would you really take the 1 in 20 chance that your half a million might go down the toilet?
A manipulator won't do it because by their nature they like to be in control, and in this situation they aren't. Someone in this to invest won't do it because the risk is too high and they don't like pissing money away.
18.
Post 2661228 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
Big guys made some panic, now we go up. Best way to hedge against future falls of btc -
ASICMINER-PT as always
Can you elaborate a bit more on this, because I'm not really seeing it. I expect you will probably argue that the share price is going up, but in dollar terms they are staying more or less the same as the BTC price decreases. The only slight advantage is the dividend payout, but of course if your coins are locked away in shares you can't use them to try and profit from trading.
Eg June 1st ASIC price was around 2.5BTC, today it is slightly under 4.5. BTC over the same period has done relatively the exact opposite, going from $130 to $70. Any dollar gain you might have had from share prices increasing has been wiped out by overall BTC decline
19.
Post 2670828 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
I've been buying and selling the whole way down. My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing. If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.
It is worrisome how easily we have gone down and with no real volume. If this keeps up I say we go way below 50. We need to have some capitulation volume when we reach the bottom, at least I would think (barring some great news of the like). Considering we are roughly at 70, have fallen pretty hard from 130 and 50 is not that far away, I really really wonder about the lack of volume. What happens when people really start selling? Look out below is my guess.
You're right and I think despite the fear that exists, there is still alot of hope out there. Bitcoin has rallied back to 90 or 100+ with ease at times, so it's understandable people are holding on to this belief, even though it's looking less and less likely.
I don't really agree we have fallen "real hard" from 130. We haven't seen 130 in a long time, so it's certainly been a process. Excluding that, I understand what you're saying. So what happens when people really start selling? I continue to believe in the general sentiment of the Bitcoin community over the last couple months and the view has been pretty much the same, "If we ever hit 50, I'm all in!" Tons of resistance in the 50 range and that doesn't account for the fiat on the sidelines waiting for that moment. This is why I say, if we break though 50, abandon all hope because the resistance in the 50 range will be the closest thing to a Bitcoiner unified front, there is. If it can't hold, what's left? At that point, you're absolutely right. Look out below.
The problem is, what people on this forum say and what they actually do are completely different. If you look back over the past month or so there are plenty of people saying things like "oh hai, below $100 and I'm all in", "keep selling silly bears, more cheap coins for me at $80 lolz". I'd be very surprised if most of them did actually buy in at the points they were claiming they would. The current "OMG cheap coinz!" point seems to be $50 according to the current sentiment, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get there and blow right through it as people wait for $30. Since $50 hasn't been touched since very briefly at the bottom of the crash, theres not really any evidence on whether it will provide support or not. If it falls theres no reason to think it will be the end of Bitcoin
20.
Post 3996274 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.39h):
Most of China will be asleep right now, I wonder what will happen when they wake up to the news?
21.
Post 4040157 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
Every bone in my body is telling me this is the moment to sell again - but I just can't hit that button.
Sell half then
22.
Post 4057195 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
But he does tend to get it right.
With the amount of cash he has on hand, he can always MAKE SURE he gets it right...
Why would he troll then, if he had such an amount of cash!!!
If these walls really are his, he is the one getting trolled today. First wall got eaten, price rebounded, and now the next walls are getting munched
23.
Post 4057554 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
He did a good call on this one. Is it so hard to admit?
Totally right, it was a good call. I think people would be less hostile though if he also admitted when he is wrong, rather than just crowing about the occasions when he is right
24.
Post 4057981 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1tbjf3/btc_china_here_to_stay_bobby_lee_open_letter/"Just posted on BTC China website when you log in. Here is the Google translate, not an amazing translation but you can pretty much understand. Recharge = funding. Looks like BTC China is not going down just yet and there is still hope.
Dear Bitcoin China (BTC China) Users:
Recently, due to third-party payment companies in China disrupted and Bitcoin (BTC China) recharge channels, resulting in China Bitcoin (BTC China) is temporarily unable to provide RMB prepaid services. In this regard, on behalf of China Bitcoin (BTC China) expressed deep regret for the inconvenience, please understand. We are actively seeking other recharge methods. Currently, in addition to recharge RMB, the yuan withdrawals, recharge and withdrawals Bitcoin service as usual, may be slightly delayed during peak hours. We have enough for the user bits and the RMB currency withdrawals.
Today Bitcoin China (BTC China) formally launched a new product, "currency lock" - the most secure online bitcoin wallet. "Currency lock" the safest way to store the user's offline Bitcoin, a process known as cold storage, it can ensure that your wallet will not be stolen by hackers online. Your "money locked" account we have bank-level security protection. In the future, China Bitcoin (BTC China) users can send your bitcoins safely stored in bitcoins China (BTC China) of "currency locked" inside.
As China's first Bitcoin and Bitcoin trading platform company, we have more than two and half years of operating experience and a good reputation. November 18 this year, China Bitcoin (BTC China) successfully obtained $ 5 million in financing, China Bitcoin (BTC China) would have been afloat, please rest assured users. Five ministries notify People's Bank of China also made it clear: "Bitcoin transaction as a commodity trading behavior on the Internet, ordinary people have the freedom to participate in the premise own risk."
September 24 this year, we announced a temporary exemption transaction fee, which increases the degree of mobility and frequent Bitcoin transaction, resulting in China's Bitcoin prices to some extent, causing a large number of reports of widespread concern in the community and the media. Therefore, in order to prevent speculation and cause Bitcoin Bitcoin prices spike, we choose to restore a 0.3% transaction fee, please customers understanding. Only maintain price stability bitcoin, bitcoins to get healthy development.
I believe you love Bitcoin will fully understand our decision.
Nicholls yuan (Bobby Lee) China Bitcoin (BTC China) CEO, co-founder of December 20, 2013"
Apologies if this has already been posted.
I'm not sure if I'm misreading it, but it doesn't really say anything new. They are still working on a way of getting money in, but no progress yet. Then they try and change the subject to talk about a new wallet that noone has asked for. If I were them I would be spending my time sorting out the deposit issues, not coding wallets
25.
Post 4347725 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.52h):
Not the best bet to make really. If CoinBull wins he gets 1 BTC worth less than $750. If he loses, he has to pay 1 BTC worth over $750
26.
Post 4377113 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.53h):
"In related news, the millions of dollars in bitcoin seized by the FBI from Ross Ulbricht and the first Silk Road, currently stored in a set of online wallets, appears to be on the move. A source in the U.S. Justice Department said that “authorities” have access to the Ulbricht’s bitcoin cache and may be selling it off for less volatile currencies in the next few weeks."
"The reason for selling is that the Government has lost faith in the value of bitcoin and does not want to deal with the volatility of the currency,” the source said"
http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/07/the-silk-roads-libertas-is-free-to-the-annoyance-of-us-authorities/imho i don't believe US government would let go that easy.. good old poker face?
At any rate, they aren't just going to wire it across to gox and dump it on the exchange
27.
Post 4377142 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.53h):
not sure if it's wall street just yet, but there are definitely large manipulators about. it's not a conspiracy theory, it's common sense.
Yes, Mr Wall has been having a lot of fun on Stamp today pushing the price down
28.
Post 5444248 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.22h):
http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "
So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins!
Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up..
You are forgetting administration costs.
In my experience, expert liquidators would be wondering if 21 million USD was enough to pay the costs of auditing the mess at Gox.
You almost need to run the company for a 6 months to a year to organise evaluating the situation - but without its normal profits continuing to pay the costs. And a freeze of assets pending 'investigations' will put a hold on this for ages anyway.
Then most liquidations I have seen seem to spend almost all the cash in the bank, by pure coincidence.
The only possible 'payout' would be from coins being sold from a substantial pile left (if there is one) and even then a lot of cost would still be taken off.
Basically - forget a payout of any substantial percentage, and forget seeing even this anytime soon.
DISCLOSURE: I had coins on Gox - not many, but I am not sneering, just being realistic.
Yeah, the accountants and lawyers will make sure they get their cash before anyone else. Its messed up, but customers are generally at the bottom of the list of those getting money from a bankruptcy
29.
Post 5479345 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.23h):
Starting to struggle now - not many people seem willing to put their bids in front of the wall at this price
30.
Post 5483737 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.23h):
I seriously don't have idea what to do here
Personally ..what you said earlier...leave the guns in the holster til' 620 min... I mean we've flirted with 620 before.. we break it we'll probably stay above it for the week.
Yeah, I'll probably do that.
Still feel bit pissed I sold 60 coins I bought earlier today literally less than a minute before he had put this last wall. $1k opportunity lost so far in 10 minutes
I have a feeling it's rpietila and his gang from other forum that are doing this.
Better buy now, $620 will fall. This guy is not a joker. Not sure if $620 will hold.
lol and how many coins has this wall actually bought?
With this wall probably 10k in 12h.
No, this wall has bought nothing, this is what happens with such thin books. Stick a million up and let everyone else pile in front, this will get dumped at some point.
Previous walls got totally eaten
31.
Post 5485881 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.23h):
Clever strategy. Sacrificed the first two walls to prove that they are legit, and now just the presence of this third wall is causing people to buy ahead of it without it being eaten
32.
Post 5486927 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.23h):
Coincidence that this all happens on the weekend rpietila is having his mansion party?
33.
Post 5487096 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.23h):
Coincidence that this all happens on the weekend rpietila is having his mansion party?
I said it hours ago, he posted on his thread and sounded very, very cocky. I'm pretty sure it's his group doing this.
These numbers are out of reach for people like rpietila. It was probably just effects of cocaine.
Makes more sense to be a group than an individual though, no?
34.
Post 5487721 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.23h):
Coincidence that this all happens on the weekend rpietila is having his mansion party?
I said it hours ago, he posted on his thread and sounded very, very cocky. I'm pretty sure it's his group doing this.
You give this guy waaaay too much credit.
Uh, I don't like him, there's no many people who called him names more than I did. To be honest I think he is twat, one of those I can't stand. But I do think he managed to incorporate himself in the group of some wealthy Bitcoiners like Goat and company, and they are very able to move the market.
The whole thing was orchestrated in a way that shows whoever did it understands the market pretty well. They know people are wary of fake bid walls, so they made sure their walls got eaten. They know people expect these brief pumps to be short lived, so they've made sure a new wall appears every few hours. They know people don't want to get left behind, so they were keeping their walls low enough that bids would pile in front of them, but moving them up when things were slowing down. By the time the third wall showed up it hardly had to do anything. They also know a lot of people are (or were) shorting, many of whom have probably been squeezed out. Probably the most telling thing is that no bigger whales came along to take a dump on the buildup, which would imply that the people capable of doing so weren't inclined to take what would have been a lot of profit. Why do think this might be, unless many of them are working together on this?
They've got things right where they want it now. Lots of people who were bearish will have bought back in, and everyone is scared to dump in case another wall comes along in a few hours.
But this is all just speculation right?
35.
Post 5487979 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.23h):
Coincidence that this all happens on the weekend rpietila is having his mansion party?
I said it hours ago, he posted on his thread and sounded very, very cocky. I'm pretty sure it's his group doing this.
You give this guy waaaay too much credit.
Uh, I don't like him, there's no many people who called him names more than I did. To be honest I think he is twat, one of those I can't stand. But I do think he managed to incorporate himself in the group of some wealthy Bitcoiners like Goat and company, and they are very able to move the market.
The whole thing was orchestrated in a way that shows whoever did it understands the market pretty well. They know people are wary of fake bid walls, so they made sure their walls got eaten. They know people expect these brief pumps to be short lived, so they've made sure a new wall appears every few hours. They know people don't want to get left behind, so they were keeping their walls low enough that bids would pile in front of them, but moving them up when things were slowing down. By the time the third wall showed up it hardly had to do anything. They also know a lot of people are (or were) shorting, many of whom have probably been squeezed out. Probably the most telling thing is that no bigger whales came along to take a dump on the buildup, which would imply that the people capable of doing so weren't inclined to take what would have been a lot of profit. Why do think this might be, unless many of them are working together on this?
They've got things right where they want it now. Lots of people who were bearish will have bought back in, and everyone is scared to dump in case another wall comes along in a few hours.
But this is all just speculation right?
This buy in would have been more profitable if it would be spread out in a week or two. Whoever did/is doing this buying, doesn't care much. It seems that a certain number was agreed upon and now the plan just needs some quick filling. There were several pumps like these during the China boom. Without these pumps, BTC is no fun..
Yes its plausible, but I'm still not so sure. I don't think they wanted it to be optimally profitable necessarily, just very public. It seems like a PR exercise right after weeks of bad news. Assuming the whales already have some BTC, they will be watching the bear market carrying on with no end in sight. By doing this they haven't got the best price for their new BTC, but they have raised the price of their existing coins by a fair bit. If someone had that much to spend on BTC as a private investor, surely there are better channels for doing so than on a public exchange
36.
Post 5509829 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
My 650 bid didn't get filled, so presumably just a bug
37.
Post 5566169 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):
Headline : "The Japanese government officially said Friday that it
doesn’t consider bitcoin to be a currency and has
no plans at present to regulate it as a financial product."
Thanks Solarstorm, it seems like its a news allowing to test the lower support indeed.
If it wasn't for the Gox stuff this would normally be bullish news. People in Bitcoin want to have their cake and eat it - no regulation or protection unless it happens to be convenient
38.
Post 5932000 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
People are so eager to ignore the fake pump at the start of the month and blame all this on news and FUD. Its been fairly obvious that after getting to $700 based on the actions of just one or two traders we would be drifting back down to the previous levels eventually. The news hasn't helped today, but in no way has it been the only factor
39.
Post 5934464 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
Its middle of the night now in China, it will be at least 8 hours before this news gets confirmed as real or not and probably more. Until that happens we are still on very shaky gorund
40.
Post 6034801 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):
If its more than rumours why is there no confirmation after nearly a week? Coins are still worth more than they where two days ago so I'd say we've left the panic phase behind.
You can tell as much from what people aren't saying as from what they are. The fact that the exchanges aren't speaking up to deny it strongly implies that the rumours are true, and they are all scrabbling around behind the scenes to try and find some kind of workaround before they make any announcements.
41.
Post 6036379 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
Good point, oda.krell.
Someone here said that if $200 ever happens (and I don't think so), you won't want to buy.
OTOH I am surprised that, so far, only the western markets are dropping on Chinese news.
I'm not sure it's that easy...
That's another thing I thought about earlier today: a number of really reasonable forum members made claims in the past like "If we ever go back into the double digits, it will be on the way to zero", or "one thing we know for sure is that we never fall below the previous ATH".
Problem is, we have almost no data. We trade this mofo for a bit more than 3 years. All those "patterns" that are supposed to hold in all eternity (like the one that says we don't correct lower than previous ATH), we have 2, maybe 3 repetitions. As anyone with a bit of knowledge of statistics can tell you, that's nothing to work with. You can still use it as your best bet for trading (and I'm sure the previous ATH, if we go that low, would be a point of support), but the idea that it *never* can happen because it didn't happen *3 times* is ludicrous.
So maybe we go all the way back to 300. Maybe 200. Maybe below 100 (unlikely, but as always possible). I'll buy back when I see a trend reversal, not because of a number.
Totally agree. "Well it always rallied before to a new ATH, so it will again and we will see 1000% gains every year". Its obvious to anyone who does the maths that it can't keep having those gains every year forever
42.
Post 6037192 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
Totally agree. "Well it always rallied before to a new ATH, so it will again and we will see 1000% gains every year". Its obvious to anyone who does the maths that it can't keep having those gains every year forever
Bitcoin has a lower market cap than Western Union. I don't get why people fail to see the potential there. 1000% gain seem very likely.
I'm not saying there isn't potential, I'm saying that it can't increase that much every year until the end of time
43.
Post 6037588 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
Yeah this is pretty bad. This is only based on smaller exchanges, imagine what will happen when the larger ones make their announcements
44.
Post 6039046 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
I think theres a reasonable opportunity for a mini rally in the next few hours, at least until China wakes up and starts spreading more bad news
45.
Post 6039252 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
Exchanges make their money on volatility. Its no surprise that they would spread their announcements to encourage as much trading as possible
46.
Post 6049210 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
OKCoin pause prepaid card, bank transfer prepaid cards are not affected
Dear OKCoin users:
As the third-party payment card dealer just received notification mechanism to suspend payment channel, OKCoin will be at 0:00 on April 3 before stopping prepaid card, bank transfer recharge card unaffected yuan withdrawals are not affected, to give us apologize for the inconvenience.
From google webpage translation for OKCOIN saw a reddit post didnt trust the link so I went searching on my own...more and more it looks like just these third party guys are going to be squeezed out of the chain.
Or just that their bank hasn't sent them notification yet that their main account is going to be blocked. It seems like PBoC isn't dealing with the exchanges directly, so they are just getting calls out of the blue from their providers telling them that as of tomorrow something isn't going to be working. Explains why all the exchanges are denying getting the notices - they are as much in the dark as we are
47.
Post 6049303 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
OKCoin pause prepaid card, bank transfer prepaid cards are not affected
Dear OKCoin users:
As the third-party payment card dealer just received notification mechanism to suspend payment channel, OKCoin will be at 0:00 on April 3 before stopping prepaid card, bank transfer recharge card unaffected yuan withdrawals are not affected, to give us apologize for the inconvenience.
From google webpage translation for OKCOIN saw a reddit post didnt trust the link so I went searching on my own...more and more it looks like just these third party guys are going to be squeezed out of the chain.
Or just that their bank hasn't sent them notification yet that their main account is going to be blocked. It seems like PBoC isn't dealing with the exchanges directly, so they are just getting calls out of the blue from their providers telling them that as of tomorrow something isn't going to be working. Explains why all the exchanges are denying getting the notices - they are as much in the dark as we are
its well known that the PBOC sent these to the third party payment systems and not the exchanges...I would imagine ..that as always Chinese self censor themselves.. they don't wait for deadlines to fall in line...so the big banks holding off on letting these guys know is far fetched.
Well the banks and third parties have got until April 15th to implement. I don't think its particularly far fetched at this point to expect that there will be some more announcements before then relating to deposits to exchange's main banking accounts.
Its good in a way, at least we know the deadline for when all this nonsense will be over
48.
Post 6052302 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
Contrary to what people on this forum seem to believe, the world doesn't revolve around them and their Bitcoins. To the banks this will just be another account they need to close, and each bank will have a different process and timescales. They aren't going to accelerate this because OMG Bitcoin. Just because some exchanges haven't had any news yet, doesn't mean they aren't going to. The news is still only a few days old, and banks are not normally known for their ability to do things quickly
49.
Post 6052585 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
mooncake reported that:
1. Huobi has checked with their third party payment service providers and banks and was informed that no instruction from PBOC had been received.
2. Huobi will stop all third party payment services on 05-04-2014.
3. Huobi will ramp up its manpower to 7*24 on internet fund transfer.
All bank deposits and withdrawals are not affected.this is not the same thing smaller exchanges said yesterday.... all they are stopping is 3rd party payment providers
this is senseless,
@ PBOC you suck at banning bitcoin.
It does seem strange. Either still in denial or maybe they have been shown some favoritism by PBoC
One can only speculate at this stage, but hey this is the right thread for it!
Or maybe their providers are still getting all their paperwork in order before serving notice and have a policy of not confirming things like this until that is all done. In the manner that businesses all around the world do
50.
Post 6053075 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
So, basically, China uncertainty continues and it's going to bite us again. WOnderful.
Only if you let them. It's time to realise they are irrelevent for maintaining the current state of Bitcoin, it could quite easily go back to 1000$ without them.
I couldn't give a flying one about them personally but unfortunately market does. So if it goes to 550$ today or in a week, and then another round of China ban stuff hits the news, we're back to 400$ again.
It's the worse situation market could find itself at, it's basically a hostage of PBOC's will.
Thats the problem with it being a global currency. On balance, the Chinese probably felt the same during the Gox fiasco
51.
Post 6064999 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):
We seem to keep bouncing down from the $450 ceiling. I'm going to reserve any declarations of bullishness until we get through that
52.
Post 6065159 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):
We seem to keep bouncing down from the $450 ceiling. I'm going to reserve any declarations of bullishness until we get through that
Please update us.
Well hopefully we find enough $ to plough through the walls. Don't get me wrong I'd love for it to go up
53.
Post 6065279 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):
sodl oout bulls might start getting nervous soon ... not so much train leaving station but rocket blasts off unexpectedly.
This is where I am and haven't gotten my first btc yet...waiting on the verification. Scared it'll end up at 900 bucks by Monday or Tuesday when they finally hook me up.
Curious about something if anyone here might know...I read somewhere in this forum something about the value of btc being coded in the math, that it can always be known how much it will be worth and how it will increase in value due to the code or whatever and that it's coded to increase exponentially. If that's knowable because of the code itself then why all the speculation?
It could be based on the reward halving, with the assumption that less BTC being created = lower supply = higher price. For that to work though you are assuming that the demand is there. Theres nothing in the code that says "on this day it is worth $x"
54.
Post 6065367 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):
sodl oout bulls might start getting nervous soon ... not so much train leaving station but rocket blasts off unexpectedly.
This is where I am and haven't gotten my first btc yet...waiting on the verification. Scared it'll end up at 900 bucks by Monday or Tuesday when they finally hook me up.
Curious about something if anyone here might know...I read somewhere in this forum something about the value of btc being coded in the math, that it can always be known how much it will be worth and how it will increase in value due to the code or whatever and that it's coded to increase exponentially. If that's knowable because of the code itself then why all the speculation?
It could be based on the reward halving, with the assumption that less BTC being created = lower supply = higher price. For that to work though you are assuming that the demand is there. Theres nothing in the code that says "on this day it is worth $x"
Right - I know it isn't predictable to any given day, but it seemed like what I read was about we'll always know what btc is worth in real value, not artificially inflated or deflated, and based on - which is where it's sketchy but I *think* it was based on something like how many people are buying or making transactions the value is calculated so the ups and downs are knowable.
I've read so friggin much on here it's hard to remember it specifically but that was the impression it gave me - that the match behind bitcoin provides some calculation that tells what the value is and going to be based on use or something.
Anyway, no problem...just curious
Thanks!
Ah yeah people have made loads of graphs linking the price to transactions, Google search trends, number of posts on this forum etc. Thats not really something in the code though, it is more a measure of adoption and since its based on historical data its not really useful for predicting more than an month or so in advance
55.
Post 6209703 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
I was also a bear until 25. Feb, but then I bought at $448. We are now at the same price. Are you risking to be a worse trader than me?
Surprised you didn't sell at some point to be honest
56.
Post 6214260 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
0.01% chances for any of those to happen.
And in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?
Be realistic, case 4 has happened very recently and multiple times at that
57.
Post 6214528 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
0.01% chances for any of those to happen.
And in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?
Be realistic, case 4 has happened very recently and multiple times at that
All of them? With no new ones appearing?
Depends on why they go. If its regulation there might not be any way for others to appear
58.
Post 6236159 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).
No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable
59.
Post 6245419 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
each time Bitcoin price starts going up an article like that one popup, I find it really fishy, and fuck this shit, I am not trading this and I will be holding to my coins.....
good luck and see you in a couple of months.
Yeah, the timing is very suspicious. Some of this stuff has been coming out in the middle of the night over there.
Maybe the government are just trying to reinforce their point - "see we told you it was volatile and it would cost you money, come back to our banks where you are nice and safe"
60.
Post 6245544 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
Kudos to myself for being spot on Pboc story ain't finished until exchanges are closed or delocalizedLook at that long Red wick on Huobi.. Chinese says Fuck u white boy!
Usually when the wick is that long, expect bad chinese news later on..
We are at the mercy of chinese traders. They get the news firsthand and sets the Trend, some bots that follows CNY movements eats part of the cake.
That is why pricing has been unpredictable for westerners. And I am totally uncomfortable with that. Until Huobi/okcoin gets shut down by PBOC or move out of china, I'm keeping my Fiat out of this gamble.
I believe we've just hit the top.
There was a lot of struggle in that pump
I agree, this current pump has no follow through. Soon it'l retrace back to 500, afterwards sub 460 to test some support.
This rally will end soon as it cannot be sustained by enough bids (less than $11 million bids) and has been fueled mainly by china and previous sellers who believes 340 as bottom and getting back in. To summarize, bitcoiners have short memory about the situation with pboc and is currently blinded by 'fear' of missing the fantomatic moon train.
Pretty accurate analysis.
How? Yes it was proven right, but the catalyst was more news from China rather than not enough bids. Right but for the wrong reasons
61.
Post 6245613 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
Just as I suspected, major news events would occur as soon as I "went bull"...
Yeah that was very unlucky timing. Wonder what the US will do when they wake up
62.
Post 6245619 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
One peep out of China pimpslaps btc up or down a few hundred. I thought the gold market was manipulated, but this is insanity. Expect heavy dumps when China wakes up in a few hrs.
They are already awake, its 5:30 pm there
63.
Post 6251514 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
Do all you guys shouting your TA around realise that in this instance the TA had nothing to do with it? We only bounced from your resistance levels due to the 'news', who knows what it would have done otherwise
64.
Post 6261901 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
Dumps like this always make me nervous lately. They tend to be followed shortly after by more bad news :/
65.
Post 6262902 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
Did the dumping start before the anouncement was made public?
Yes, as usual theres some blatant insider trading going on.
How many banks do they actually have left now?
66.
Post 6263003 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
It could go quite a bit lower. If the remaining Chinese banks close deposit methods over the next couple of days, combined with public holidays in Europe and US, that will be a lot of days with no cash flowing in to any exchanges
67.
Post 6263032 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
Huobi at 496... stamp at 490. what's the problem? the market was falling before all the announcements..... just a natural correction.
Don't you think its even a little bit suspicious that each of these announcements is preceded by a large dump, right before the news is made public?
68.
Post 6263122 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
Can't do anything about it obviously
My point was more that many people are saying this is just a normal correction and the price was going down already regardless of the news, whereas there is also the possibility that some people may get the news before others and lead these corrections
69.
Post 6278581 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Huobi dump 3 days straight same time, why?
Lets see if any 'news' shows up in the next few hours...
70.
Post 6424724 (copy this link) (by darklight) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Yawn. It often dips on Sundays