(That said, I must also say that I don't see that auction as responsible for the current drop. I imagine that most traders knew it would happen, so they have it "priced in" already; and most traders should not see it as a big deal.)
I think most would disagree, it seems clear that the sale is responsible for the recent drop. If you want to keep to the efficient market hypothesis, you could say that a large percentage of traders thought the SR sale wouldn't happen, due to the US not wanting to be seen to sell bitcoins (because it would supposedly give them legitimacy).
Now has the market priced in the sale of DPRs coins? I think the timing will make a difference, because of the limited supply of bitcoin on the markets. The price will drop if/when he is convicted.
Guys and girls - this situation is going to resolve itself just like the situation in the 400s. We bounced around high to low and mid to low 400s for many weeks. Finally, there just were no more sellers. None. And once that happened, the bulls ran wild.
Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.
Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.
But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is.
Yeah I think there are just too many bulls expecting a bubble, can't go up when everyone is a bull unless there is a huge influx of new people getting into bitcoin. That's going to happen eventually but not as fast as people are thinking. Some impatient buyers have already sold and I see the number of bears increase again which is positive because we need them as fuel for the price to go up.
I don't expect a bubble any time soon but I do see 800-850 in the cards.
there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...
Will the Winklevoss etf mean people are buying new bitcoin though? Won't they just be buying bitcoin the Winklevii bought years ago? (this sounds wrong but I'm too tired to work out why). I mean, where currently someone would have to buy bitcoin on an exchange, with the etf, they will be able to buy from via the etf (which doesn't have to buy any more coins). So the etf would have a negative effect on market demand (for the current markets) by this logic. i.e. essentially it is unleashing a huge supply of the Winklevoss coins.