All posts made by coolbeans94 in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread



1. Post 3092060 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

10 Year Treasury Note is now at 3.01%: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year

Can someone explain to me why this is really significant? What does this have to do with Bitcoin? I'm currently not seeing the relationship. Thank you.



2. Post 3092267 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

Quote from: hmmmstrange on September 06, 2013, 05:24:01 AM
10 Year Treasury Note is now at 3.01%: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year

Can someone explain to me why this is really significant? What does this have to do with Bitcoin? I'm currently not seeing the relationship. Thank you.

This is a huge rabbit hole you are attempting to jump into.

The largest threat to rising interest rates is the derivative market which is almost entirely bets on the interest rates. If you think 1.5 billion dollar bitcoin market is large, try and wrap your head around a 500 trillion dollar interest rate derivative market.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interest_rate_derivative
I am not completely ignorant: I have a background in banking and finance, and I understand about market caps and the derivatives markets, etc. I am just asking in the form of ELI5 in an attempt to really grow my understanding. A lot of people do not really understand what it is they are writing or talking about. GOOD EXAMPLE: Mainstream Media and news reporters. Anyone can give their opinion about a topic and present it as factual, yet you can always tell someone who doesn't know what it is they are writing or talking about because their topic of conversion always is slightly or grossly off the correct subject. I know a 1.5B market cap is a drop in the bucket...(I mean they are doing quantitative easing at 85B PER MONTH right now, not to mention all the other central banks around the world also printing money!) I love Bitcoin but the 1.5B cap compared to the 85B per month QE is infinitely small; plus you still have to add in all the commercial paper derivatives stacked on and building up on top of that...etc. etc.) Really, big finance and banks have everyone so deceived they don't really give a care about Bitcoin. People want Billions instantly, rather than wait for Bitcoin to go up a billion or two, or ten for that matter. They just build up a value and print the money for themselves out of thin air. Thank you, I digress.



3. Post 3096711 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

Quote from: MonadTran on September 06, 2013, 07:20:47 PM
The question is whether the powers that be can maintain the system. The answer is: they can.

Pardon me? We would still be living under the Roman Empire if they could. ...

We still are living under the Roman Empire. It is just not called that anymore. They invented this cursed banking system.
Even our word “money” comes from the name of the Roman temple of Juno Moneta, in whose cave-like basement the original Roman mint was operating.



4. Post 3103629 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

Quote from: rolling on September 07, 2013, 04:57:49 PM
A new US-based exchange (CoinMKT.com) opened last night with Dwolla as a deposit option.  It will be interesting to see if this has any affect going forward.

US-based, professional looking site, multiple currencies, founders show their face publicly (https://coinmkt.com/#/about_us) and are not dodging AML&KYC compliance.

Interesting. Definitely keep an eye on this exchange.

Model turned MSB?

http://www.travisskweres.com/#/modeling

That is strange. He is a model?Huh



5. Post 3105643 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

Quote from: chriswilmer on September 08, 2013, 05:47:04 AM

Really interesting. The super-exponential part really hit home, as I remember people figuring out that bitcoin was in super-exponential growth in the first week of April. Still, it doesn't really indicate how one should trade. Bubbles don't have to pop, it's just that the super-exponential behavior has an expiration date and "something" happens afterwards that is different.
The real issue to understand is where the super-exponential growth is coming from; what is the factor that is the main driver causing  the exponential growth.

For example: Is the underlying cause for this exponential behavior (up or down) "debt" related? If it is debt related, then it is artificial, it is manipulated, it is an illusion. On the other hand, if it is not caused by debt, but rather natural market forces, and "not leveraged", then there is no reason to believe that the growth is in any way artificial or unsustainable, in reality the price at any moment would reflect the "true" price; thus, bubbles would essentially not be formable. Basically it all comes down to debt and leverage. Debt adds risk. The more debt-leverage involved, the more the debt-related risk associated with it, exponentially. Most people are deceived by debt because they just look at the money, and they forget to think about risk. If you want a stable financial market, eliminate ALL debt. This means you have to actually save money and be productive in order to create wealth. Debt is borrowing money that you don't have...essentially it is like a race analogy.

Race Analogy: The person with debt "jumps the gun" and runs out in front of everyone else and gives the appearance of being a better athlete, yet he is not any better than the rest, and once it if finally discovered when they review the race....they have to start the race all over again...Once it is discovered that someone used debt and are not paying it back, there is a financial crisis and a "reset" of the financial race.



6. Post 3109821 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

Quote from: Walsoraj on September 08, 2013, 07:42:32 PM
24hr volume on Gox under 6,000. lol.

Turbo-ultra-mega-bulls:

I'm interested in your tinfoil hat theories about the laughably low volume on weekends and/or other days when Gox is not crediting accounts with deposited fiat. Specifically, please explain in detail why/how this volume indicates genuine demand to buy bitcoins at these prices.

Thanks in advance.
It may be that people are waiting to see if the FED scales back QE or not. Might be another week or two before we see real volume. A lot of people may be sitting on the sidelines atm. In my opinion, they are not going to taper QE, it will keep on happening. So once the FED report comes out that they are going to continue QE for now, people will probably buy into bitcoins. Thoughts?



7. Post 3112346 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

Observation: Bitstamp currently has positive money flow while Gox has negative money flow. Interesting because the StochRSI now indicates they are both oversold. It seems Bitstamp is Bullish and Gox is Bearish.  Bitstamps "positive money" flow is larger than Gox's "negative money" flow; Seems like a battle between exchanges and looks like Gox USD volume is about even with Bitstamp atm, so Bitstamp may take the bullish lead. It will be interesting to see which way we go. Could this be a bear trap?
Bitstamp:

Mt.Gox:



8. Post 3112735 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

Quote from: solex on September 09, 2013, 09:28:30 AM
If the market is looking for a reason to break lower...

http://sourceforge.net/mailarchive/forum.php?thread_name=CAAS2fgRrgrfmjSKMkDWcqnRNfS_S2pZaCECb7OiaGr3B%2BkMqww%40mail.gmail.com&forum_name=bitcoin-development

"This problem will persist until no more than 288 blocks after 256818, unless another trigger transaction is added to the blockchain (which may well happen)."
    So.....its is not a fork, and it should be resolved within about 24 hours, the Bitcoin-Qt is not able to be re-opened once you close it and they are patching it. Correct?



9. Post 3116030 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

Ask sum of BTC is dropping, bid sum in USD is rising.



10. Post 3118962 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000  instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine.  Shocked  We haven't seen nothing yet!   If you think April was volatile, just wait... Roll Eyes  I'm sure it will happen again.



11. Post 3119326 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

Quote from: derpinheimer on September 10, 2013, 03:41:13 AM
I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000  instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine.  Shocked  We haven't seen nothing yet!   If you think April was volatile, just wait... Roll Eyes  I'm sure it will happen again.

You're a little confused if you think 20 mill would take the price over 1000.

Our friendly whale who put in about 4 mill brought the price up from $1XX to $148.90. And thats with a few more million from other people. So, 8 mill -> $40

But 20 mill [and lets say, 40 mill] -> +900? Dont think so.

Of course if your friend grandma is braindead and clicks market order 20millUSD, then yes, around 10kUSD/BTC spike.

There must be a reason most mega-wealthy people have bothered to put a couple million into bitcoin.
LOL yeah! Well the people I know are of the kind of personality that would so something like that (buy $20 mil market order) just to see the affect and have fun with it haha. I'm sure they'd get a good laugh about it. Although she is the kind of person who has her assets in money markets and stuff, and is not so risk averse, so it might not happen anytime soon until she passes away or something and the inheritance is passed on to her children/grandchildren.



12. Post 3119722 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

I am seeing a repeat of last year; And I doubt we will ever see prices around 50 again. I'd say we are on track to see 200 sometime in November.



13. Post 3124035 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

According to the FBI, the DDoS attacks are to be expected because it is almost 9/11. Apparently they say there is a 2 phase IT/Cyber attack being planned and orchestrated. Maybe some of the attackers involved are performing a DDoS "test" run on Mt.Gox.



14. Post 3127864 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):

Interesting BTC is dropping, while Peercoin is starting to gain volume on exchanges like Crypto-Trade.com just released trading PPC 2 days ago.
PPC is starting to make gains to catch up on BTC now. It will be the curreny Bitcoiners switch over in the event Bitcoin ever suffers a 51% attack since it's compatible with ASICs and uses the same hashing algorithm, I guess it's just a hedge for fear of 51% attack.



15. Post 17402980 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):

Quote from: Killerpotleaf on January 05, 2017, 04:09:02 AM
RSI on the hourly flashing red flags. A healthy dip might be on the way.

naaa.. higher.

the dip was intercepted... sad story, dips are a thing of the past.
Quote from: ZoSo15 on January 05, 2017, 04:15:23 AM
RSI on the hourly flashing red flags. A healthy dip might be on the way.

Maybe, but in times like these indicators go out the fuckin window. Just look at Bollinger's tweet about his shit being invalidated on the daily chart. Candlesticks are the only thing I'm looking at right now. Just gonna hold my longs until I see a big fucking red dildo rekking everyone, then sell the bounce.

Indicators are meaningless when the Chinese are just printing fiat money infinitely. You have to keep in mind the Chinese have been printing unlimited amounts of fiat at a faster pace than anyone else, but try to prevent it from leaving the country on the official fiat money exchange rates. They will try to maintain a fiat exchange rate fix as long as possible, so they maintain purchasing power, but it is really just like Monopoly money to them. Bitcoin/crypto may be a way of escape.



16. Post 17403090 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):

Quote from: PoolMinor on January 05, 2017, 05:05:02 AM
WTF is wrong with bitstamp?
China wants fomo but rest of western exchanges are not dooing much.

People are sleeping?




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIplgvEZtY0

Or, this version!
Everyone Sleeping, while bitcoin Lion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwy5uqemp6c



17. Post 17403105 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):

8,800 Incoming... I said it before, and say it again:

Indicators are meaningless when the Chinese are just printing fiat money infinitely. You have to keep in mind the Chinese have been printing unlimited amounts of fiat at a faster pace than anyone else, but try to prevent it from leaving the country on the official fiat money exchange rates. They will try to maintain a fiat exchange rate fix as long as possible, so they maintain purchasing power, but it is really just like Monopoly money to them. Bitcoin/crypto may be a way of escape.


8,800? I mean why not right?



18. Post 17403141 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):

China doesn't give a shit, they just print more money, and keep buying. over 8,800 now!



19. Post 17403229 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):

Quote from: tabnloz on January 05, 2017, 05:27:56 AM
8,800 Incoming... I said it before, and say it again:

Indicators are meaningless when the Chinese are just printing fiat money infinitely. You have to keep in mind the Chinese have been printing unlimited amounts of fiat at a faster pace than anyone else, but try to prevent it from leaving the country on the official fiat money exchange rates. They will try to maintain a fiat exchange rate fix as long as possible, so they maintain purchasing power, but it is really just like Monopoly money to them. Bitcoin/crypto may be a way of escape.


8,800? I mean why not right?

Yeah. Continuing devaluation and rumors of capital controls.

8,850 Why not??? Just print moar fiat! No problem!



20. Post 17403297 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):

Since this is a speculation thread, I'm calling 10,000 in the next 24 hours... Grab (another) bag of popcorn folks.



21. Post 17403312 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):

Quote from: coolbeans94 on January 05, 2017, 05:48:27 AM
Since this is a speculation thread, I'm calling 10,000 in the next 24 hours... Grab (another) bag of popcorn folks.

Keep in mind hitting 10,000 is "only" 13% more now!



22. Post 17403362 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):

Quote from: tabnloz on January 05, 2017, 05:55:30 AM
8,800 Incoming... I said it before, and say it again:

Indicators are meaningless when the Chinese are just printing fiat money infinitely. You have to keep in mind the Chinese have been printing unlimited amounts of fiat at a faster pace than anyone else, but try to prevent it from leaving the country on the official fiat money exchange rates. They will try to maintain a fiat exchange rate fix as long as possible, so they maintain purchasing power, but it is really just like Monopoly money to them. Bitcoin/crypto may be a way of escape.


8,800? I mean why not right?

Yeah. Continuing devaluation and rumors of capital controls.

8,850 Why not??? Just print moar fiat! No problem!

It's not really the "money printing", its the loss of purchasing power (symptom of this though; devaluation and strengthening USD), and fear of being locked in to a devaluing currency. It's part of a bigger trend. Bitcoin is just a protocol and conduit.
Limitless Unrestrained money printing via fractional reserve banking = Loss of purchasing power. Even with the fixed exchanged rate of CNY/USD. The thing is it is a fixed exchange rate = fake exchange rate; if all restrictions were lifted and we had a free market exchange rate what you would see is exactly what your are seing in CNY/BTC.



23. Post 17403472 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):

Quote from: Mrpumperitis on January 05, 2017, 06:16:32 AM
https://alternativeeconomics.co/blogline/54906-bitcoin-explodes-higher-as-chinese-money-market-liquidity-collapses   3hrs ago
 Bitcoin Explodes Higher As Chinese Money Market Liquidity Collapses



As one veteran trader noted “something is very broken.“ After a massive short-squeeze stronger in offshore yuan during the day session, overnight yuan deposit rates have exploded 31.5 percentage points higher to 45% - just shy of the record highs - as China's liquidity crisis is front-and-center. At the same time, coincidence or not, Bitcoin has gone vertical, smashing through previous record highs.

The People's Bank of China injected CNY10 billion via seven-day reverse repos and skipped 14-day reverse repos at its open-market operations Thursday, according to traders.

    The moves resulted in a net drain of CNY140 billion for the day.
    The central bank has removed CNY435 billion in liquidity at OMMOs so far this week.

Utter desperation for liquidity has prompted deposit rates to explode.....


CRYTPO GOOONAAA MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON
 Grin Grin Grin      Grin Grin Grin
Quote from: coolbeans94 on January 05, 2017, 06:00:36 AM
8,800 Incoming... I said it before, and say it again:

Indicators are meaningless when the Chinese are just printing fiat money infinitely. You have to keep in mind the Chinese have been printing unlimited amounts of fiat at a faster pace than anyone else, but try to prevent it from leaving the country on the official fiat money exchange rates. They will try to maintain a fiat exchange rate fix as long as possible, so they maintain purchasing power, but it is really just like Monopoly money to them. Bitcoin/crypto may be a way of escape.


8,800? I mean why not right?

Yeah. Continuing devaluation and rumors of capital controls.

8,850 Why not??? Just print moar fiat! No problem!

It's not really the "money printing", its the loss of purchasing power (symptom of this though; devaluation and strengthening USD), and fear of being locked in to a devaluing currency. It's part of a bigger trend. Bitcoin is just a protocol and conduit.
Limitless Unrestrained money printing via fractional reserve banking = Loss of purchasing power. Even with the fixed exchanged rate of CNY/USD. The thing is it is a fixed exchange rate = fake exchange rate; if all restrictions were lifted and we had a free market exchange rate what you would see is exactly what your are seing in CNY/BTC.

The fixed exchange rate is about to break..... or is already breaking.

EDIT: Central bank can only hold the fix so long. They are already tapping into hundreds of billions reserves to try to hold the line (fix).



24. Post 17414874 (copy this link) (by coolbeans94) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):

Quote from: coolbeans94 on January 05, 2017, 05:48:27 AM
Since this is a speculation thread, I'm calling 10,000 in the next 24 hours... Grab (another) bag of popcorn folks.
Wow. I was totally wrong. Haha.  Cheesy