All posts made by traincarswreck in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread



1. Post 20479135 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: lethos3 on July 30, 2017, 12:10:15 AM
This should cheer you all up, some quality Game Theory Analysis of Bitcoin Cash.

https://medium.com/@rextar4444/the-myth-of-bitcoin-cash-understanding-game-theory-f87858bf8791


TLDR: There is no economic viability to bitcoin cash. There is no founded argument for its valuation. The exchanges and companies that support it are insecure and nefarious.

and a coin with 1mb blocks forever has economic viability?
Yes it does.  It would help us secure bitcoin's greatest use case: https://medium.com/@rextar4444/bitcoins-most-valuable-usecase-7f5c6e95be22

Whereas targeting the block size for some arbitrary optimal or maximum transaction capacity serves no founded argument. 



2. Post 20480253 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 01:46:15 AM
 Bitcoin will always be just a currency alone and not money, and currencies derive value from transaction flow (scalability) not stock.


I think you said the higher the velocity the higher the value.

Quote
Regarding the velocity of money, if the increase in the use of Bitcoin leads to a decrease in need for holding dollars, it would increase the dollar’s velocity of circulation and tend to increase the money supply associated with any given amount of base money (currency in circulation plus bank reserves held with the Fed).
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43339.pdf

You have made your own distinction of money and currency that is not a commonly held distinction.  Your entire argument falls apart under scrutiny which suggests you need to make more and more points so I cannot break it down.


Statements like this are empty:

Quote
This is why something is required to be an actual commodity, not a fake psuedo commodity (bitcoin) to be real money.
And bitcoin is a real money by and reasonable and widely held definition of the term money. 

Like this empty statement:

Quote
so that even if everyone else on the planet dies, you are not left holding a worthless coupon.
Gold has great settlement value because its not very useful otherwise and it certainly wouldn't be useful if everyone else died.   You haven't made any sense and nothing you are saying is accepted economic theory.



3. Post 20480266 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: coltsrule7 on July 30, 2017, 02:23:41 AM


Well one could argue that bitcoins value is derived from the work (labor) needed to bring each new bitcoin to market.  This would be the work performed by the miners and as anybody who has any history with bitcoin and specifically the act of mining would tell you is that at this stage mining is not about the hardware but about the energy required. And the price of that energy. So bitcoin is energy based representing both a commodity and a service, therefore fitting your description of the ideal form of money.
Of course!  Quite obvious. 

However this is not ideal money.  Ideal Money is money that is stable in value over a very long period of time.  Bitcoin is good but not ideal. Nothing from the poster you are addressing speaks to this. 



4. Post 20480270 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: PoolMinor on July 30, 2017, 02:11:43 AM


You do realize that you are talking to a wall? And subsequently we all are observing you talking to that wall......

Now I understand why the gold man wants to spread his disease doubt here.
Don't worry I'm extremely good at this argument.



5. Post 20480378 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 02:49:21 AM

That's just the textbook definition of sunk cost fallacy.  If anything you are just proving my point.  We spend a bunch of time, resources, and energy to create a virtual commodity (bitcoin) that has no real value, especially if bitcoin died.  If you spent all that same time, effort, and resources to dig up silver instead, worst case scenario you could convert them to 29% efficiency solar panels in the end.  It's crazy to waste time and resources on a black hole called mining for an imaginary resource when you can mine for a real resource instead.

Claiming that you NEED bitcoin to send money to China is also another fallacy because as I've stated a million times, bitcoin is only a currency and not money or the base of Exter's pyramid.  Just like the Chinese wouldn't want an infinite stream of digital US T-bills, they would also not want a continuous stream of bitcoins.  They are going to want some type of REAL WORLD good or service for their trade so you will be shipping them something in a large ship anyway.  You do not eliminate the movement of real world goods by using bitcoin.

You have only shown you don't know the purpose or value of money:

Quote
Here we can return to the understanding that money has the practical value of creating games for traders.  These are games with transferable utility, but if the money were not available, the game of the traders would be a game without transferable utility and thus naturally a game with less efficiency with regards ot the possibilities for the participants to maximize their combined gains.~Ideal Money
There is nothing in that that necessitates it to be a commodity to for us to gain value from it.

And if silver cannot fulfil the role of bitcoin then you have given no argument that we've wasted any energy.

You don't know that bitcoin's settlement capabilities will shore up the quality of our fiats and so you have no observation point for why bitcoin is net valuable to us. And bitcoin's blockchain DOES have other uses than settlement such as tamper proofing files so you don't have an argument from your view anyways.




6. Post 20480532 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 03:05:12 AM


Is this a joke?  None of the crap you say makes any sense then you post this horrific shilling for the central banks statement LOL.  The further you abstract money from barter the bigger a scam it is.  Using a physical, commodity based currency (noble metals in native coin format - you know, like gold coins, silver coins, copper coins, etc) is about as close as it gets to barter, which is why it's generally the only non-scam monetary system.
Pure barter was PROVED by John Nash to be not optimal for all parties involved. The addition of money to trade creates a higher order for efficiency this was mathematically proved in the 50's. http://www.eecs.harvard.edu/cs286r/courses/spring02/papers/nash50a.pdf

Commodity money is not superior to bitcoin for the reasons you are implying.  In fact it would be optimal that we release gold and oil from their monetary components as inflation hedges so that they can be used as resources otherwise.

You are implying gold is scarce, but gold is not scarce and so going forward it would not be a good money.  And historically we have seen issues in this regard.  Bitcoin doesn't suffer from this problem.

There is no evidence and no founded argument that money must consist of an otherwise useful commodity.


Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 03:05:12 AM
I don't want to hear any of your Keynesian garbage where you attempt to obfuscate the monetary system through a Rube Goldberg machine in order to scam people whether it's bitcoin or some other poorly constructed Rube Goldberg likes the ones CBs already use.  Occam's Razor wins in the end and shekling scammers can BTFO.

My argument is not pro-keynesian by any standpoint it is based on the Nashian viewpoint:

Quote
The label “Keynesian” is convenient, but to be safe we should have a defined meaning for this as a party that can be criticized and contrasted with other parties.
So let us define “Keynesian” to be descriptive of a “school of thought” that originated at the time of the devaluations of the pound and the dollar in the early 30’s of the 20th century. Then, more specifically, a “Keynesian” would favor the existence of a “manipulative” state establishment of central bank and treasury which would continuously seek to achieve “economics welfare” objectives with comparatively little regard for the long term reputation of the national currency…~Ideal Money

To be clearer:

Quote
There can be Keynesians Neo-Keynesians New-Keynesians Post-Keynesians. Even the Post-Keynesians are still Keynesians~Lecture, Ideal Money

You have to be more careful with your arguments and presumptions cause I'll make a mockery of your missteps.  Call me Keynesian again...



7. Post 20480683 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 03:19:01 AM


And using a physical, commodity based currency like noble metals is NOT pure barter, thus everything you typed is completely irrelevant!  It's the smallest abstraction away from barter needed in order to maintain things like removal of counter party risk, durability, divisibility, fungibility, portability, etc.  I don't want to hear you lies about how bitcoin is the 2nd coming of god as money when it's not even fungible.  Most of you guys are either delusional or disgusting liars.

Metals money is not stable in value because the supply is not stable.  bitcoin cannot be ideal because ideal money is stable in value and bitcoin has no mechanism for targeting in this way.  But its a good money.  Far superior in this sense than any commodity could hope to serve.  And so it will put pressure on our central banks to print money of a superior quality.  I'm not keynesian but is how bitcoin works in relation to our existing financial system.

Every time a government over prints money or devalues, more citizens hear about and procure bitcoin, so there is something to compete with not and central banks are forced to tend to the quality of money on a vector they previously did not need to consider.

You can call me names all you want.  Your argument isn't reasonable or founded.

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43339.pdf

Quote
In this case, for the Fed to maintain the same degree of monetary accommodation, it would need to undertake a compensating tightening of monetary policy. At a minimum, a substantial use of Bitcoins could make the measurement of velocity more uncertain, and judging the appropriate stance of monetary policy uncertain.

Also, a substantial decrease in the use of dollars would also tend to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet and introduce another factor into its consideration of how to affect short-term interest rates (the instrument for implementing monetary policy).



8. Post 20480767 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 03:33:37 AM
You're just typing opinion based rambling and not dealing with any of the actual required traits of money.  I typed why bitcoin is not fungible and you avoided that issue like the plague.
I've cited my points so far and so again you have said something untrue.  In regard to fungibility you have no point to make.  I have said nothing other than bitcoin will serve as a settlement layer like a gold 2.0.  And it is far superior to gold in this fashion.  You can cry about fungibility all you want but the markets are rallying behind bitcoin and have no problem with the level of fungibility it has.

You have a belief in what ideal money consists of and I do not share belief because its not founded. Money's greatest role is an objective measurement of value, that it transfer utility is a byproduct of such a measurement device. When the value of it fluctuates arbitrarily it loses its greatest function.

Stability of value is the only important quality, the rest hold up this quality.  If our money systems stabilize in regard to comparative value because of bitcoin as the bedrock standard for decently stable value, then your argument about its lack of fungibility becomes irrelevant.



9. Post 20480834 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 03:33:37 AM
 You already admitted bitcoin is not a reliable store of value (I would say because it's synthetic price floor is recursive based on it's own demand while metals economics are non-recursive) so we can skip that issue, but all it takes is even failing one aspect like fungibility and bitcoin is not money anyways.  Getting tired repeating myself, but it's called cryptocurrency for a reason.
No I didn't say its an unreliable store of value I said it can't be perfectly stable in value as it is deflationary etc.  Gold we should note has been losing its value for the last 5 years and this is without bitcoin influencing it.  Gold is no longer a reliable store of wealth and this observable.



Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 03:33:37 AM
all it takes is even failing one aspect like fungibility and bitcoin is not money anyways.
None of the aspects are failing, bitcoin is clearly money and people are using as such.  You have created an esoteric definition.
Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 03:33:37 AM
  Getting tired repeating myself, but it's called cryptocurrency for a reason.
You tire because you have twisted the definitions and argued for something that is irrational under scrutiny which your definitions don't allow.  

You have argued gold is superior in the face of contrasting evidence and that bitcoin fails due to fungibility in the face of contrasting evidence.



10. Post 20480860 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 03:43:10 AM


Ok, you've already outed yourself as a fraud now.  Anyone can pump and dump anything.  Just because someone makes the price of an asset rise does not grant it objective, non-opinion based traits like fungibility.  You're now arguing from a leftist viewpoint where they claim things like sex and race are social constructs.  No, objective reality exists and cryptocurrency never has and never will be fungible.  Get Trace Mayer the fuck outta here, or whoever this wannabe Trace Mayer is.
You have argued bitcoin fails to be fungible and therefore fails to be money.  I have argued bitcoin doesn't fail and so it doesn't suffer a fungibility problem that has any significance.

You know what is really happening?  

Bitcoin has threatened your core beliefs and in regard to fight or flight you have chosen to go on a forum that discusses something you know little about and don't support or believe in to fight and argue against it with no intention to seek truth.

It's no wonder you are tired and your argument falls on deaf ears.



11. Post 20481029 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 03:52:55 AM
 It's either fungible or it's not, and it's not actually possible for cryptocurrency to be fungible.

It matters not that its not fungible.  It's clearly functioning today as a currency and a money by the accepted definitions of the words. The rest of your sentences were just attacks and fluff with no real meaning.  I think you are stuck in fight mode because bitcoin threatens your model of how things work. How can you see it as a rational use of your time to argue on a forum versus a project you don't agree has value? 

You are inconsistent with your own being wasting time by your own definition and views.



12. Post 20481113 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 04:05:04 AM
while it's generally people who don't know anything about economics
Sir you've twisted an conflated definitions of currency and money and you've touted gold as superior to bitcoin when this is observably untrue as we can see with the charts.  You've demonstrated you not only do not understand the subject and related subjects but that you are willing to obfuscate your points and continue to argue from an irrational standpoint.  

You don't understand (macro-)economics and you've incorrectly identified me as a Keynesian further showing that you are lost.

You've also implied gold is scarce and its not.



13. Post 20481213 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: Torque on July 30, 2017, 04:15:05 AM


I think if Bitcoin lives on another 10-15 years it'll definitely go to $1M/each. Because of hyperinflation of the dollar, lol.
You also don't understand economics.  Central banks allows banks to tend to the quality of their money:

Quote
Also, a substantial decrease in the use of dollars would also tend to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet and introduce another factor into its consideration of how to affect short-term interest rates (the instrument for implementing monetary policy).
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43339.pdf

hyperbitcoinization or that bitcoin will usurp central banking is silly and born from ignorance (the whole nakamoto institute site suffers from this).

Banks can increase the quality of their money and will do so in relation to bitcoin now that they are forced to compete with it on the markets.  As I said, bitcoin will cause the other fiats to shore up their instability.  This is the obvious natural result and is as described by John Nash who built the entire argument.



14. Post 20481255 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 04:18:59 AM
 You already admitted bitcoin is a crap store of value
You have said this lie twice now.  Gold's value is tanking and bitcoin's value is increasing on the USD at a dramatic rate.  You are denying reality and your denial is so bad you are pushing your denial on others in a forum in which you clearly don't have any business on.  You aren't here looking for truth at all.  You are here to justify your own view which has you perturbed because it is in conflict with observable reality.

You are acting inconsistently with your own views. By definition, irrational.



15. Post 20481377 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: Torque on July 30, 2017, 04:25:58 AM


I'm not sure where you're are trying to go with this.

But the quality of my U.S. dollars has lost some purchasing power over the last 4 years, while the "quality" of the purchasing power of my Bitcoin has gained 5X.

Are you sure that you understand economics?
Yes and I quoted a research report based on your fed that explains that as bitcoin grows in relevance it will force the fed to adjust its monetary policy in relation to it.  Your conclusion doesn't acknowledge this FACT. 

 
Quote
Are you sure that you understand economics?
Dude, you CLEARLY showed you don't fucking know what you are talking about.  What is this?



16. Post 20481408 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 04:26:05 AM


Let me guess, your net "truth" is to try and convince me India has the best schools in the world again.
My argument has many citations and links to to empirical evidence.  I use standard accepted definitions and principles.

Your argument twists the definitions of words, flies counter to accepted economic principles, and denies observable evidence to the contrary.

And now you are changing the subject to school in india.

As I said you are interested in defending your view only in order to justify your core beliefs.  That bitcoin threatened them causes you to participate on a forum that you have no intention of getting anything from or contributing to. 

You aren't interested in what is the truth, you are interested in perpetuating and justifying your misunderstanding.



17. Post 20481549 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

I quoted the research study that explains exactly what I say.  You forget the fed can choose its policy.  If it starts to lose ground and the velocity of the usd increases and puts pressure on the relevance of the usd, rational self interest will cause it to shore up the difference.

This is the logical and natural response from a self interested actor.

Quote
You are completely delusional if you think that the Fed is going to adjust their monetary policy at all to improve the "quality" of their money, much less to "compete" with Bitcoin. They don't give two shits about Bitcoin. After another worldwide financial crisis, they will slam interest rates back to zero and fire up QE4. If that doesn't stop banks imploding around the world, they will send interest rates negative and print dollars into oblivion. They will even airdrop helicopter money directly into people's bank accounts if they have to.
No this is not the rational viewpoint, you are speaking of a world in which the citizens don't have an alternative option for hedging.

Quote

In the near future there may be a smaller number of major currencies used in the world and these may stand in competitive relations among themselves. There is now the “euro” and the old inflationary history of the Italian lira is past history now. And there COULD be introduced, for example, a similar international currency for the Islamic world or for South Asia, or for South America, or here or there.

So here is the possibility of “asymptotically ideal money”. Starting with the idea of value stabilization in relation to a domestic price index associated with the territory of one state, beyond that there is the natural and logical concept of internationally based value comparisons. The currencies being compared, like now the euro, the dollar, the yen, the pound, the swiss franc, the swedish kronor, etc. can be viewed with critical eyes by their users and by those who may have the option of whether or not or how to use one of them. This can lead to pressure for good quality and consequently for a lessened rate of inflationary depreciation in value.

And this parallel makes it seem not implausible that a process of political evolution might lead to the expectation on the part of citizens in the “great democracies” that they should be better situated to be able to understand whatever will be the monetary policies which, indeed, are typically of great importance to citizens who may have alternative options for where to place their “savings”.




18. Post 20481570 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: infofront on July 30, 2017, 04:42:02 AM


So, you're saying that it's a "fact" that the fed will cause massive USD deflation, so that it can keep up with bitcoin?
its not massive deflation though is it?  It's only massive if you are assuming bitcoin will go to the moon, but in relation to the USD this is silly.  And I stated it as CITED fact as I have given a link to the entire supporting research paper.  It's accepted economic philosophy and theory that such banks will adjust if forced to compete with a superior option.



19. Post 20481580 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 04:46:30 AM



Sir are you expecting us to take your seriously? You've run out of counterpoints and logic. And resorted to obfuscation and name calling some time ago.



20. Post 20481642 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: bones261 on July 30, 2017, 04:53:28 AM
Whatever  Roll Eyes

For me, if I want to be safe, I go for precious metals. Since the neolithic, it's held its value fairly well. A person 10,000 years ago can get about the same amount of goods and services as they can today. Yes, its value fluctuates in the short term, but in the long term, it will probably be one of the safest investments that I can possibly make. (And a little boring to be quite frank.)
If I want to go for risky, with high volatility and excitement, I go for Bitcoin/cryptocurrency. I've had almost 3 years worth of entertainment and have even seen my small "investment" increase 10 fold. This has been way more enjoyable, affordable and educational for me than my years of trying to perfect my card counting "system." Wish this was around in the 90's and early 2000s.
Enjoy life. It never has to be boring.



Did you look at the price of gold before you made this statement?  Its declining rapidly.  And its value 10k years from now is not relevant to you.  Your post denies observable reality.  gold is not safe, its losing value at a dramatic pace.



21. Post 20481959 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: bones261 on July 30, 2017, 05:13:34 AM


OK, let's go for something within my lifetime. In August 1971, gold was $35.00 per ounce. Adjusted for inflation that would be about $211.00 in today's dollars. Now if I compare the price of gold to what it was in May of 1980, then it sucks. Overall, in the long haul, it's most probably going to keep up with inflation.
Not necessarily so at all. You've basically said it worked like this in the past and so it will work like this going forward.  But of course we didn't have bitcoin.  But more importantly you probably don't know that the relationship is really about the cost of production which effectively related to its deepness.

As we grow our technology gold won't necessarily be scarce and this will happen in our lifetimes.  This is why szabos article about mining the vast deep were written and relevant (as well as comet mining).

There is nothing to suggest gold will continue to be a superior or safe store of wealth.



22. Post 20483270 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 07:06:48 AM
Jihan Wu dumped 3K bitcoin on bitfiniex in 5 mins. Only 1% damage. He will see what a real dump is on his BCC on 1 Aug  Grin

As if Jihan Wu is the only dumper in town o_O
Much of your points are no sound economic philosophy.  You've made your own definitions and created an argument that supports your own view but is contradicted by observable reality. You actually don't know anything about the subjects you are commenting on. 

ACTUALLY.



23. Post 20483283 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Bah, I feel like the word actually isn't getting across...

What I mean to say is IRL, irl conflicts with your beliefs.  You are wrong and observably so.



24. Post 20483295 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 07:06:48 AM
Jihan Wu dumped 3K bitcoin on bitfiniex in 5 mins. Only 1% damage. He will see what a real dump is on his BCC on 1 Aug  Grin

As if Jihan Wu is the only dumper in town o_O
Do you have any more memes to post that can derail from your attempts to justify your misunderstanding?



25. Post 20483528 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 07:26:17 AM


Hey man, I'm not the one posting on an alt-troll acct from being scared.  If what I said about bitcoin and metals fundamentals wasn't true, someone would actually be able to put up some type of argument against it but nobody can. Instead, I got Sidhujag the guy from India, the world capital of gold, trying to troll the forum saying metals are a barbarous relic LOL.  They sell cooked rats on the side of the road in south east asia, don't give me this barbarous relic shit!
ya im sure he's confused.  nonetheless your argument can't be it worked in the past so it will work in the future.  gold was good, but only because it had an EFFECTIVE throttle on its supply.  This can and will change.  It's a myth that it's tangibility was significant. Something with other (changing) significant uses is not as useful as a settlement device than an equivalent that has less other uses.

like its not my fault so many of the people that have been arguing you don't know what they are talking about.



26. Post 20496102 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: williamuk on July 30, 2017, 03:21:26 PM

In a 5 years time a 1mb chain will be completely forgotten, after Bitpay accepts Bitcoin Cash its game over.

Unlikely to happen since Bitpay is part of the conglomerate (http://dcg.co/portfolio/) that controls Blockstream / Core. Whatever Bitpay do is likely to be in support of DCG and DCG / Blockstream / Core is behind the 1Mb constraint

It's one big centralisation effort presented as decentralisation. You've got to admire how well they've managed to mislead so many for so long.

Quote from: lethos3 on July 30, 2017, 02:52:40 PM


Lots of holes on this article, it boils to down to keeping Bitcoin in a limited circle of people under the guise of "decentralization" ignoring advances in hardware and bandwidth. But 640kb ought to be sufficient for everybody right?

list of bs points:

Quote
Bitcoin As A Settlement System Scales Indefinitely
Bitcoin As Coffee Money Doesn’t Provide A Unique Service
Increasing Low Value Bitcoin Usage Doesn’t Necessarily Increase Its Value As Per Metcalfe’s Law
Bitcoin As A Coffee Money Doesn’t Scale

In a 5 years time a 1mb chain will be completely forgotten, after Bitpay accepts Bitcoin Cash its game over.

But neither of you understands how central banking or our global economy works.



27. Post 20496645 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: williamuk on July 30, 2017, 07:22:00 PM

What??
I said you have an opinion and you are assertive about it, but you don't understand how central banking works or economics in general.



28. Post 20497227 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: bones261 on July 30, 2017, 07:52:04 PM
But the arrogant attitude conveyed is rather noisome.
No its not, ur just not paying attention enough!



29. Post 20498218 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: bones261 on July 30, 2017, 08:46:34 PM


A prime example. If you don't think the above statement you just made to me comes off as condescending, you are completely oblivious.
I said pay attention, not don't pay attention more!



So the people that think bitcoin has a congestion problem are the one's that have no understanding or claim of understanding economics.  And if you ask them about their understanding they will stop asserting their opinion.



30. Post 20498486 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: bones261 on July 30, 2017, 09:18:25 PM


Such an opening statement inspires me to be rather obstinate, and made it quite difficult to digest any of the information that followed. Rather than using a spoonful of sugar to make the medicine go down, you used a spoonful of coffee grounds. Sure, the coffee grounds may help me be more alert, but not if I can't choke it down. Don't even bother responding to me. I have you on ignore, for now.
The argument though, concentrate on the facts no the character of the messenger!




31. Post 20498638 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: spiderbrain on July 30, 2017, 09:29:10 PM

Are you a 14 year old boy?
What do you think the chances are you can hold a candle to me in regard to the macro economic implications of bitcoin?

Quote from: williamuk on July 30, 2017, 09:26:25 PM

I wasn't stating an opinion, I was stating facts about how bitcoin is being centralised by one corporation around Blockstream, it had nothing to do with your conversation

And anyway how would you know what I know, particularly about cbs and economics. You don't know me Wink
You are stating your opinion as fact which is a conclusion you have mistakenly come to because you don't actually know how central banks work and what their purpose is. You know what economics and game theory are and how they are relevant to understanding bitcoin (which you do not).

You are literally asserting an opinion about something you don't understand.



32. Post 20498910 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 30, 2017, 09:35:08 PM


People who are unable to do anything but parrot an "authority figure" are the ones who have no understanding of economics.  Do you think anyone would care about what Nash said if he just parroted someone else?  It's not possible for any craptocurrency to defeat metals as the base of Exter's pyramid (lowest settlement layer) because bitcoin has built-in rent seeking middlemen and counter party risk.  You could even claim that since bitcoin requires a constant net energy/resource input >0 to appease these middlemen and not implode, that it's technically a debt based currency in practice.  It's just not lended into existence like a traditional one.

A typical debt based currency has a constant resource drain where the whole of society has to pay the interest rate (which is always higher than the principal and requires infinite growth) or the system dies.  In bitcoin, the miners just take the place of the bankers who the interest rate has to be paid to...or the system dies.  PoW is also designed to centralize, so you end up with the exact same type of central bank bank model bitcoin claims to be there to defeat. There is really no reason whatsoever to use bitcoin over gold and silver.  Metals actually remove counter party risk, don't have rent seeking middlemen, scale, and have no pseudo debt based element to them.
You have said that by citing my argument I do not understand it.  I think you don't understand what it means to present a proper argument.  Then you continue to assert your authority "exter's pyramid".  Your writing is long winded and full of obfuscation and bad assumptions. But I don't need to peel the layers away.  You have argued bitcoin cannot be what we are watching it be, a money and a currency.  You have suggested "metals" can only take the bottom role of the pyramid, as we watch golds price and relevance decline.

What other metals are you referring to?

Golds supply is not throttled and limited like you are assuming.  That is why it is losing its monetary relevance. 

Reality disagrees with your belief system.

And you can't send metals around the world like you can with bitcoin

You are making blatantly silly statements:
Quote
There is really no reason whatsoever to use bitcoin over gold and silver.



33. Post 20500784 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

The Myth of Bitcoin Cash 2: Re-solving Nashian and Szabonian Views on the Emergence of Money Through Trade
https://medium.com/@rextar4444/the-myth-of-bitcoin-cash-2-re-solving-nashian-and-szabonian-views-on-the-emergence-of-money-b3c83a5d019f

Rational players won't diversify.

Szabo: "If the outcome is significantly predictable, it pays to invest completely in the most likely winner"

http://unenumerated.blogspot.ca/2008/03/logical-emergence-of-money-from-barter.html



34. Post 20501329 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: Elwar on July 31, 2017, 01:09:22 AM
I did have a theory on something that could push the price up a lot over time.

There was something like 600k bitcoins stolen from MtGox which apparently was flowing through btc-e being sold off over the years. btc-e has always had a lower price which may have kept the price low over the years. Now that the admins are on the run and they do not have btc-e to sell their coins they have stopped that flow of large amounts of bitcoins onto the market. Without this downward pressure, who knows how high the price will go.
I have a funner theory, karples and ver used btc-e to launder their stolen gox coins and now the feds are bargaining with the btc e guy for a glimmer of freedom in order to make a case versus ver.  Ver is visibly disturbed because he's slowly realizing his attempts to fork to keep the transactions low so he can wash his coins is not going to work and hes even more slowly realizing that hes getting a knock on his door soon because the prisoners dilemma is too complex to prevent individual defection.

That everyone needs to move their coins is bringing awareness to his transactions.  

the feds just audited coinbase and froze more stolen gox coins but no one will hear of this because operations have no resumed a normal.



35. Post 20501557 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 31, 2017, 01:42:36 AM
Szabo

If he was a credible person before, he's not anymore after working on an R3 banker backed IPO scamcoin called Ethereum so you can stop pretending he's god now.  You're from India where people worship authority figures and the state, so it's kind of obvious how your behavior is playing out where you constantly feel the need to cite some authority figure as the word of god without being able to put 2+2 together yourself.
Yes we have already established you don't understand the purpose of central banking and so you fear it.  But you will get no reasonable person to admit that Szabo is irrelevant.



36. Post 20501784 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 31, 2017, 01:53:55 AM
The people who claim Szabo is Satoshi are the real joke, because of his actions being willing to work on the R3 banker scam Ethereum, it would also mean that if he's Satoshi then bitcoin would also probably have been released as a govt/banker backed scam (aka how to make a mint).
I don't think ignorance is an argument.  Everyone knows szabo is most knowledge person in the space.  There is no other candidate. And this speaks perfectly to bitcoin cash: https://medium.com/@rextar4444/the-myth-of-bitcoin-cash-2-re-solving-nashian-and-szabonian-views-on-the-emergence-of-money-b3c83a5d019f

Szabo gave the founded economic reason as to how bitcoin could emerge as a money.  There is no other argument proposed and there is no such argument for bitcoin cash nor does szabo's argument give credibility to bitcoin cash.

So you literally have hand waved all of the reason and all of the economic foundation for every aspect literally because it doesn't support your conclusion which is not actually based on any accepted economic principles.  You even changed the definitions of words .  You have said bitcoin can't work and yet reality shows it does and you have said gold is superior and reality shows its not.  

You have shown there is no reason to use bitcoin over gold or silver which is a laughable statement.  

You are literally denying reality and running into a forum which you have no intention of contributing to or gaining from asserting your contrasting faith.



37. Post 20501915 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: TeeBone on July 31, 2017, 02:19:51 AM
To sell or hold your btc crack cash, that is the question...
Szabo's article shows if you are certain then you should go with the currency that will win in the long run asap.  If you are not certain you should sell have your bitcoin equity and use it to buy the equivalent in bcc and hold equal equity in both.



38. Post 20501996 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: Icygreen on July 31, 2017, 02:28:19 AM
Everywhere I read its recommended to withdraw coins from exchanges until the dust settles sometime after Aug.1st. That would create very thin pools everywhere without the option to transfer back and prices could move any direction much easier.
How does this equal bcc gaining value or you gaining value from going against the crowd (or with the crowd)?



39. Post 20502249 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: Icygreen on July 31, 2017, 02:47:05 AM

I'm not concerned about a BCC value and in fact I was never here for BCC in the first place. I would only be concerned with BCC value if I follow my greed to get MORE.
You have to SELL the BCC to gain from them



40. Post 20502416 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 31, 2017, 03:07:07 AM

Of course it doesn't work.  It's value is supposed to be based on decentralization yet it's completely centralized.  You make this buffoonish statement that it "works" just because there are entities trying to pump and dump it.  A pump and dump does not validate something.  Does "chaincoin" work just because someone pump and dumped it from 5 cents to $6 before it crashes to nothing again? LOL.
You are denying reality and by YOUR OWN DEFINITION wasting your life on this forum.



41. Post 20502548 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 31, 2017, 03:19:14 AM

The purpose of bitcoin is regulatory arbitrage and that's why even though bitcoin is completely centralized it has not failed yet.  Being decentralized is not a requirement of regulatory arbitrage.  For past examples see Liberty Reserve or Silk Road.  Being a centralized regulatory arbitrage network is an untenable position in the long run though.

I might be able to disambiguate ur use of the word centralized and find some re-solution.

Bitcoin as a settlement system provided no one nation controls it takes the control from central banks.  They still control the value but their hands are tied, they have to tend towards more valuable currency or they lose their customers:



This is Nash's argument, he is not keynesian or pro central bank.



Everyone is keynesian, only nash was thinking beyond such a state of thinking:

Quote
There can be Keynesians Neo-Keynesians New-Keynesians Post-Keynesians. Even the Post-Keynesians are still Keynesians~Lecture, Ideal Money




42. Post 20502738 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 31, 2017, 03:31:31 AM

Your claim that central banks have to "invent" a more competitive form of money than other alternatives in the market is shockingly dumb.  Government is a monopoly on force.  The banks took over the government.  They are not here to "compete", they are here to use force to scam you.  There is no "competing" required besides deploying a larger amount of force than you can.  Any random fool on this forum knows that.
You don't understand how banks work. Banks or ie the fed, makes policy that affects the quality of the money that is issued. I already cited this congressional research report that admits exactly what I claim:

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43339.pdf

Quote
Regarding the velocity of money, if the increase in the use of Bitcoin leads to a decrease in need for holding dollars, it would increase the dollar’s velocity of circulation and tend to increase the money supply associated with any given amount of base money (currency in circulation plus bank reserves held with the Fed).

In this case, for the Fed to maintain the same degree of monetary accommodation, it would need to undertake a compensating tightening of monetary policy. At a minimum, a substantial use of Bitcoins could make the measurement of velocity more uncertain, and judging the appropriate stance of monetary policy uncertain.

This is exactly what Nash points out:



Quote
The idea seems paradoxical, but by speaking of “inflation targeting” these responsible official are effectively CONFESSING…that it is indeed after all possible to control inflation by controlling the supply of money (as if by limiting the amount of individual “prints” that could be made of a work of art being produced as “prints).

If the usd starts to tank because bitcoin becomes relevant the fed can choose to let the dollar drop out of existence or it can create favorable policy so it's value is attractive to citizens.  You are effectively arguing the fed will let the dollars value drop to the point where no one uses it, which is asinine. The only logical option is to compete to survive.  

You simply haven't thought two steps ahead.

Everyone knows I know what I am talking about and that you don't understand the subject at hand.



43. Post 20503031 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 31, 2017, 03:55:49 AM
More illogical nonsense.  Government is a monopoly on force.  Do you not know what the fucking word monopoly means?  If they want you to use dollars, worst case they just shoot you if you use something else.  Everything revolves around how much resources they're required to spend to stop you.  It requires VERY FEW resources to lock down the internet, exchanges, and mining pools to stop bitcoin, while it takes several orders of magnitude more resources to run a police state in the real world and prevent people from using metals.
You've stated I'm being illogical and not making sense.  

The government does not have a monopoly on printing money anymore.   And my government nor the US government can shoot its citizens or force them to use USD.  There is an entire constitutional framework that limits its power and protects the freedoms of the citizens that give it its power.  

Nor can the government shut down the internet, nor will it ever do so.

You keep returning to "metals" but there are no metals that are suitable stores of value.  Gold is rapidly losing its monetary nature and technology will release the throttle on its supply.  You are saying "metals" but you are really not referring to any actual commodity because no commodity would be a suitable store of value.

And the US government already showed it can mandate the confiscation of gold

Quote
Executive Order 6102 is a United States presidential executive order signed on April 5, 1933, by President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the Hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States".

I've consistently shown your argument to be flawed and inconsistent with itself. You keep CALLING me illogical but I cite all my arguments.  You are not using words or concepts by their standard accepted definition.  And you are constantly making assertions that are contrary to observable reality.  

Sir, you are denying reality that we all agree exists but you.



44. Post 20503411 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on July 31, 2017, 04:35:38 AM
There is an entire constitutional framework that limits its power and protects the freedoms of the citizens that give it its power.  

Yea, that's the sci-fi channel explanation.  Force is the only valid consensus mechanism and everything else is meaningless, unless you can figure out some way to stop 4 grams and 1800J of energy with words.
no its not science fiction, again its observable reality that you are denying: https://www.c-span.org/



45. Post 20512590 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: rjclarke2000 on July 31, 2017, 10:55:14 AM
I know technically I am in cryostasis but I'll just say this....


I thought we are all expecting a huge drop tomorrow? Why talk of ATH?? What am I missing?

Off to freeze myself again until this blows over
Bitcoin has a legit market and legit use cases.  If no one is moving coins and the exchanges are halting, the bitcoin gets harder to get for those that actually need to use it, price pressure goes up from this all things equal.



46. Post 20512598 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: fragout on July 31, 2017, 01:10:17 PM
So it looks like people are selling alts for btc to get the "free BCC" when the fork occurs. My guess is they will dump their new bcc asap and buy back their original Alts. Not a bad strategy except for the viabtc stage and the fact that i expect all Alts to rise pretty fast as these speculators come back.
If everyone is buying bitcoin to dump bcc, where is the value in bcc coming from?



47. Post 20512941 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: fragout on July 31, 2017, 01:27:25 PM

BCC futures down 18% today and this is assuming wu/ver are supporting the price. The die is cast imo
There isn't a chance that ver or wu will give you wealth in exchange for your bcc. Nobody is giving anyone wealth for bcc.  Everyone will keep their bitcoin wealth.



48. Post 20513330 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: fluidjax on July 31, 2017, 01:42:53 PM


I have no doubt there is a strategy here, perhaps it's:

They will have 3 months to bore everyone into giving away their BCC for peanuts,  before the pump comes when 2x HF fails in November.
How do they pump?



49. Post 20513583 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: fluidjax on July 31, 2017, 01:53:02 PM

They buy them  Grin
No one is giving up bitcoin an asset with an increasing price for a worthless token.  Not ver, not wu.  Ask ver to give you 5 bux for nothing.  He won't do it.  And you can't pump a coin buy yourself and expect to profit in anyways.  It doesn't work like that.  There is no way to "pump".

There is no strategy to make money from BCC its a losing failing proposition that only makes sense to people that don't understand economics and game theory.



50. Post 20513592 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: becoin on July 31, 2017, 01:56:39 PM


What miner in their right mind will mine BCC peanuts for 3 months?

none



51. Post 20513820 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: Paashaas on July 31, 2017, 02:04:17 PM


Obviously, Roger is using his own fanbase (/rbtc) to lure them in.
He's not 100% for the idea and neither is r/btc and in fact no players will let go of their bitcoin because its rising in value and bcc has no value.  

Even if you were ultra evil and wanted bcc to usurp btc you still wouldn't trade your bitcoin for bcc.  You would hold your wealth btc otherwise you would only be destroying it.  Let me paraphrase this article because I don't think many read my writing well: https://medium.com/@rextar4444/the-myth-of-bitcoin-cash-understanding-game-theory-f87858bf8791

In order for this to work a large amount of the market must be committed to changing to bcc at the same time.  In a cooperative fashion.  The entire reason we need bitcoin is because its not possible for a large complex array of players to make a coordinated move.

It's not possible.  It's a misunderstanding of game theory and economics to suggest that any value can be created or won from bcc.  It's a hoax with a completely unrelated ulterior motive.



52. Post 20517374 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: Denker on July 31, 2017, 03:25:22 PM
I thougt about this option as well.
It's also very difficult to sell Bcash for something than just dust when the masses are dumping.
Therefore I will hold this shitcoin and hope for a pump later to sell it for some profit. If it doesn't happen and that shitcoin goes straight down to hell, I'm fine with it as well.
if everyone is dumping and u can't really be bothered and the leaders of the bcc movement don't understand economics or game theory where is the value for bcc coming from?



53. Post 20519719 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: lethos3 on July 31, 2017, 06:42:44 PM

the lack of true fungibility will bite everyone in the arse sooner or later, no need to blame bitcoin cash.
i think u are saying that because coins can be linked to their transactions and identified as such that they are not truly fungible. And furthermore u are suggesting that this is a fatal problem. I also think u are ignoring the fact the usd in cash form have this same property.

If I am correct you haven't done any thinking whatsoever about what u are saying.



54. Post 20519854 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: lethos3 on July 31, 2017, 06:53:37 PM

the lack of true fungibility will bite everyone in the arse sooner or later, no need to blame bitcoin cash.
i think u are saying that because coins can be linked to their transactions and identified as such that they are not truly fungible. And furthermore u are suggesting that this is a fatal problem. I also think u are ignoring the fact the usd in cash form have this same property.

If I am correct you haven't done any thinking whatsoever about what u are saying.

This is the 2nd time you say I don't know what I'm talking about but don't say where I'm wrong.

Cash is fungible by law but is physically traceable (still impractical). There are no laws enforcing fungibility in Bitcoin and it is fully traceable.
tell me what u are implying will happen and when?



55. Post 20520032 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: lethos3 on July 31, 2017, 06:59:50 PM

the lack of true fungibility will bite everyone in the arse sooner or later, no need to blame bitcoin cash.
i think u are saying that because coins can be linked to their transactions and identified as such that they are not truly fungible. And furthermore u are suggesting that this is a fatal problem. I also think u are ignoring the fact the usd in cash form have this same property.

If I am correct you haven't done any thinking whatsoever about what u are saying.

This is the 2nd time you say I don't know what I'm talking about but don't say where I'm wrong.

Cash is fungible by law but is physically traceable (still impractical). There are no laws enforcing fungibility in Bitcoin and it is fully traceable.
tell me what u are implying will happen and when?

I don't know what will happen and I'm highly skeptical of anyone who says when and how things will happen. I merely stating how things are in the present (no true fungibilty or privacy in Bitcoin) and the implications of such by empirical evidence: http://blog.wizsec.jp/2017/07/breaking-open-mtgox-1.html

Its appalling this problem is being ignored for so long and anyone who brings the issue is immediately shot down.
it's not a problem which is why no one cares. That's actually ur clue. Not sure why u quote gox. The theifs have a problem and I suspect Ver's solution is bigger blocks ie low transaction fees. U are literally quoting uncertainty and doubt and giving no falsifiable hypothesis.



56. Post 20523119 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on July 31, 2017, 09:09:32 PM
I think most people agree fungibility is an issue in bitcoin. IIRC, the vast majority (if not all) of Core does as well.  That doesn't mean this won't become a hotly debated issue,  probably a lot more contentious than smallblocks versus bigblocks.  The longer we wait, the more "normies" and less "revolutionaries" will be involved in crypto, and the more contentious this becomes.
Can you explain why its an issue or can you only allude to it being one?



57. Post 20528206 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):


By Szabo's definitions if you are unsure about bitcoin/bcc's future then you should diversify... (self.Bitcoin)

This means if you are unwilling to selling half your bitcoin equity for bcc then the strategy you have chosen is that bitcoin will win out. This goes for r/btc'ers and anyone claiming to favor bcc.

Sitting on only a proportion of bitcoin and airdropped bcc is not a proper vote for being unsure of the outcome. If you don't at least split your equity, whether you admit it or not, your strategy is heavily weighted towards bitcoin



58. Post 20528514 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on August 01, 2017, 05:05:55 AM


The market cap of above ground silver and bitcoin is similar now.  Bitcoin is no longer some cheap penny stock.  The US gold vs debt chart with 92% correlation shows gold will hit at least $2200 in the next bull run, which would bring the GSR to 30:1 or lower ($73 silver).  Bitcoin would need to hit $12,000 to compete with that almost guaranteed silver upside in the near future.  

But that's a very conservative number for just a stable market situation.  In a real crisis situation and rush to hard assets, gold would be more like $5000 and $166 silver or more.  Or a government metals revaluation of gold to $10k and silver to 1:15 ratio of astronomically high numbers like $600 silver.  Bitcoin would need to be able to hit $100k each to compete with that possible silver upside.  It will never happen.  Big corporations will just create their own scamcoins and try to force people into them and the crypto market cap will be divided up between 50 different coins (also due to poor scalability and high fees), unlike the metals market where you can't just "invent" a new gold or silver and are forced to buy the real thing.
The governments can shut the internet down you say but not rigged the markets.  You don't actually hold the physical metal you are investing in so you have no actual argument that metals are safer than bitcoin.  The price of metals is declining that is reality, not a good store of wealth, and that they are not scarce is a clue that their predictable supply cannot be relied on, we have watched oils bubble burst and gold is falling a slower but dramatic rate.  

50 coins?  The markets are split well beyond 50 coins. You are not making a coherent argument.  You cannot invent a new bitcoin which is the standard the markets have converged on, we are about to witness proof of this.

And how is it your conclusion can be based on the markets accepting scamcoins from corporations.  You are constantly denying observable reality.



59. Post 20528747 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: fluidjax on August 01, 2017, 05:28:57 AM

If I give BCH a 0.1% chance of victory, I should hold 0.1% of my portfolio ($ value)  in BCH not 50%.

if you give bch a .01% of victory I don't really consider that uncertain.  Uncertain in this sense implies 50/50. Regardless the optimal strategy is to converge the future winning coin as fast as possible as its determined. 

Those that converge on the winning coin first have the most to gain or not to lose



60. Post 20528793 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: r0ach on August 01, 2017, 05:41:45 AM


Funny how you keep spamming this nonsense of calling metals a "barbarous relic" while all other 999 million people in your country of India are buying metals like I am.  You can be the one single guy in India with no gold or silver! Someone might even put you in an insane asylum for having such views there.
When I say you are ignoring observable reality this is what the beauty of an internationally constructed price is.  Gold is not a reliable store of value anymore.  You are pointing at history and ignoring its decline over the last 5 years.

It's been getting smashed: http://goldprice.org/



61. Post 20528824 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

As bitcoin's are being frozen around the world some people still NEED to use the network and this puts upward pressure on the price.

This pressure makes it increasingly difficult for would-be defectors to move their equity off the network.

 Even if they are pro fork their greed stops them from unilaterally deviating.



62. Post 20528907 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: hv_ on August 01, 2017, 05:51:56 AM


What are 5 years compared to golds history?
They are the most relevant years in our lifetime.  And I reject your assertion that because gold was valued for hedging inflation in the past that it necessarily will continue to be so in the future.  Furthermore Nash Szabo  AND Satoshi predict that gold will lose its monetary nature:

Quote from: satoshi
The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost.



63. Post 20529042 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

The amount of claimed fork coins will always be more uncertain that the amount of active bitcoins

 It is natural to suggest that the perceived amount of active bitcoin will be more certain than its cloned counterpart.



64. Post 20529151 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 01, 2017, 06:06:10 AM


your formula is too simple, but the essence of it is correct.

For example, they may have a 2% chance of surpassing the value of bitcoin.

They might have a 5% chance of equalling the value of bitcoin.

They might have a 10% chance of retaining 15% value of bitcoin. 

They might have a 30% chance of retaining 1% value of bitcoin.

I don't really know what these exact numbers are, but it is true that you should attempt to cause your holdings to be in line with your view of the various probabilities, even if you cause such view to be a simpler formula... that might evolve a bit with the passage of time.. .. like what the fuck, they were able to survive 3 months past the hardfork, and then maybe looking at them 6 months down the road or 1 year or 3 years or 5 years etc.
Szabo showed we will converge on a single standard.  If we are making a choice 1 will win and the other will revert to its commodity value which is basically null.



65. Post 20529187 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

Quote from: fluidjax on August 01, 2017, 06:07:51 AM



The point is 50/50 yes/no or up/down is a gross simplification.
Its all about probability, and scaling your exposure to risk in line with your perception of that probability.
 

Are you keeping Szabo's explanation of the logical emergence of money from barter in mind when you say this?  He made a distinct point the network will converge and the loser's value will revert to its commodity value which is effectively zero.



66. Post 20547907 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.15h):

We should do this free money thing every day so everyone can get rich!



67. Post 20549738 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on August 02, 2017, 12:56:52 AM
This is slowly becoming too much money to ignore.  Undecided
I guess Kraken exploded did it?
Nothing's really unfolded yet:

Quote
Kraken Exchange‏Verified account @krakenfx  3h3 hours ago
More
 Waiting for BCH funding? Relax, take a walk, smell the roses, enjoy the day, it's not happening anytime soon folks. ETA 8-80hrs when safe.



68. Post 20549751 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: jbreher on August 02, 2017, 12:59:11 AM

Guys, i made 4 bitcoin, just by lending the hell out of it, at 5 percent. And i have no idea what bcc, bch is.
Could i have done better ? I mean, it´s still 2700. 4 multiplied by 2700. I´m off, wanking.

Well, let's see...

4BTC is 5% of 80BTC.
You would have received 80 BCH.
Right now, kraken lists the price of BCH as 0.13563 BTC.
80 * 0.13563 = 10.85 BTC.

Did you do good? You tell me. Was the lesser risk worth a 2.5x difference? Personally, I would have gone for the BCH, but then again, I believe that BCH rather than segwit is the proper route forward for Bitcoin.

(actually, I went for the BCH)



When y'all gonna start dumping your BCH like you were whining about yesterday? I want more cheap Bitcoin Cash!

If you liquidated all your btc for bch wtf are you doing in a bitcoin forum?  You have no position or faith or care for the project. Trolling I guess huh?



69. Post 20549767 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: AZwarel on August 02, 2017, 12:59:03 AM
This is ridiculous.
Literally free money? If i have 10 BTC, now i also have 10 BCH, and get x BTC/x dollars out of nothing if i sell it?

Absolutely unsustainable, unless, BCH buyers introduce new money to the BTC market? Cause in that case, BTC just went up a lot masked as BCH in dollars.
Otherwise, it is a perpetual motion machine, and i will hire someone for another forked "BTC alt"...
Smiley

You have to be less good at math and economics and then you  understand the bch shill perspective.



70. Post 20549905 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: jbreher on August 02, 2017, 01:12:24 AM


Who said I liquidated one for the other? In fact, I clearly implied that I was waiting for all the dump-whiners to start their whiny dumps.
Szabo noted the best strategy is to go all in on the future winner.  Your telling us you believe in bch but your actions aren't inline with that claim.  I suspect most outspoken bch supporters are the same.  This includes ver and wu.  So you are gonna wait to bch drops and then as its dropping and bitcoin is climbing then you are gonna change?



71. Post 20549915 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: bones261 on August 02, 2017, 01:13:57 AM


Where can I dump? Most exchanges that I checked are not accepting BCC deposits. I tried to sign up for VIABTC and I keep getting an error "Don't try too frequently." WTF, I got this error on the first try. How is that too frequent?
Ya'll aren't understanding the problem. Relax and think about it for a bit, just like the mocking kraken tweet says.



72. Post 20550084 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: jbreher on August 02, 2017, 01:17:17 AM
You have to be less good at math and economics and then you  understand the bch shill perspective.

 Roll Eyes

Haha. So tell me, traincarswreck... has Bitcoin's VALUE been constant across the last 24 hours?
I THINK you are talking of my want to keep the value proposition as stable as possible.  The price of btc seems reasonably stable for the prediction that it will lose its claim as the king.  It's value proposition has not changed.  Price has not change much has it,  but thats not necessarily value.

We have a conundrum happening.  

There is an allegedly real value for bch and everyone wants to claim their gold/reward...

On the other hand few can get access to the trade...

How do we solve this problem?




73. Post 20550189 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: jbreher on August 02, 2017, 01:25:29 AM

Is Szabo a skilled trader? Note that 'trader' is not synonymous with 'economist', nor much of any other title you might ascribe. And even if he was, are you to extrapolate from such a general statement applicability to all situations? If I expect many to dump first, then my actions are totally rational.

"Markets can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent."
Szabo wrote about 100 different papers on this subject over the 20 years.  The papers are chapters of an entire thesis.  He laid the groundwork for the economical explanation of how money arises and how we have made mistakes in understanding this phenomenon.  He painstakingly relates this to law and technology from our proto roots (40-100k years ago).  He has given the ONLY reasonable explanation for not only how money arises but also for how bitcoin could be a money.

Without his work there is no such logical argument for bitcoin to work.  Not even Satoshi left this.  Although I showed his view are perfectly in line with Satoshi and there are only 3 others, Nash and Finney citing Selgin's work that support this.

Szabo also gave a study of the history of commodity price in relation to inflation hedging and their monetary components.  He also bridged Adam Smith's the wealth of nations with advancing crypto economic theory.

There is no single person in the world that is anywhere near his level in this regard and he did it grounded in logic right down to binary.  He literally showed the binary math involved that proves and grounds his work.

His work contrasts the ideas put forth from bch bu r/btc and any such bigbblocker project.  As do Nash's Selgin's and Finney's.

I have no idea what you are trying to ask me.



74. Post 20550396 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: deepcolderwallet on August 02, 2017, 01:52:11 AM

I can explain why not. My deposit on exchange is taking over 2 hours and only has 2 confirmations till now! Isn't this the solution for all BTC problems?
That sucks because if you were already in place to exchange you could take advantage of the price!  ARg!!!!!



75. Post 20550673 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: B1tUnl0ck3r on August 02, 2017, 02:03:05 AM
Whoever, if anyone, thinks this new clone coin has better fundamentals than the original, could you explain why?

I can in one number : 7tps.

I wanted a 10mb block size, then 100 and 1000 but I make a concession and will see how it goes with time.

Then it has the history, making all the cold hodler have the amount. Mining gears are the same. And there is no useless and dangerous complications resulting from offchain txs.

I can understand the arguments of those who don't want to change the 1mb, and don't want segwit. Keeping the code as is. However as soon as the intentions behind is to push for segwit (to earn the fees) or to push another chain, I think it's dishonest toward those who started it all.
It's people that don't understand fundamentals.

There is no founded argument that increasing 7tps increasing the value.  Economics doesn't support it.  There is no grounded arguments.  There are only people that have no understanding of economics that are screaming like roger "It obvious you dummies" .

Sometimes when the experts and knowledgeable people disagree with what seems like common sense, its because the problem is more complex than you think and the solution not so obvious.




76. Post 20550819 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: B1tUnl0ck3r on August 02, 2017, 02:22:10 AM

it's clear. how can you not see? the argument is "grounded". there is a strong difference between experts and smart scammers.
That's not how you make a grounded argument.  There is accepted economic philosophy.  You have to tie your argument to it otherwise its inconsistent with observable reality.  You can point to two simultaneous events and claim observation is proof that one causes the other.

It's a community of 5 year olds.



77. Post 20550839 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: RayX12 on August 02, 2017, 02:24:34 AM
The exchanges wallets will remain blocked until the owners decide.  This is really a shameless manipulation but par for an unregulated industry.
Watch out when the floodgates open.
Sux because if we could just exchange our btc for bch we could get the free money!!!  Can anyone solve this problem?




78. Post 20551188 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: Ibian on August 02, 2017, 02:35:19 AM

A network is only as useful, and hence valuable, as the number of people who can use it. The transaction rate is the limit on that. More volume means more people means more money means higher price.



No.  think about what you have said.  Some networks only few people can use and they are very valuable.  You are wrong.

Quote
As for the guy you talked about above, could you link some of his stuff?

Do you mean Szabo? Everything is cited and linked to the rabbit hole: https://medium.com/@rextar4444/the-myth-of-bitcoin-cash-2-re-solving-nashian-and-szabonian-views-on-the-emergence-of-money-b3c83a5d019f



79. Post 20551219 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: B1tUnl0ck3r on August 02, 2017, 02:44:29 AM


the higher fees induced by the 1mb limitation restrain the number of potential users. If someone can't have way more than the minimum fees while would he join the network?

thanks for this comment.
The potential users does not define the value of a network, nor does its number of users: https://medium.com/@rextar4444/my-previous-previous-explained-how-bitcoins-usefulness-as-a-settlement-system-is-able-to-scale-23bfdc02689f

https://medium.com/@rextar4444/bitcoins-most-valuable-usecase-7f5c6e95be22


You see we are holding tacit assumptions that aren't grounding.  We are perpetuating myths and half truths.  I'm banned from r/btc because I would put and end to these myths.



80. Post 20551652 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: r0ach on August 02, 2017, 03:21:02 AM
After seeing every other industry try to low labor costs and outsource to India, the computer graphics industry tried it and it totally failed because Indians were unable to compete in art or creativity.  Now here we have traincarswreck/sidhujag from India who is unable to do anything besides parrot Nick Szabo, one of the ringleaders of the Ethereum scam while pretending he's the word of god.  If you're unable to explain or back some type of view on your own, don't bother posting.
I'm not from india you dumb mutt. Nothing you have said so far is correct.  You just keep repeating it.  And I'm not parroting szabo I'm reference his explanations and citing them and quoting them and explaining them.



81. Post 20552151 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: B1tUnl0ck3r on August 02, 2017, 03:02:21 AM

Would you mind sharing one example please?

A club membership where limited entry creates privilege and prestige. This can go right up to the level of multinational coalition.  But I don't like your question because it doesn't speak to my point.  People assume metcalfes law means the more people accessible to a network the more valueable it is.  This is not metcalfe law.  Metcalfes law is a formula that tells you how many possible connections can be made, the assumption that those connection imply value is asinine.

Think about a fax system.  What that would imply is that the very last person in the world to get a fax machine adds the value times every single person in the world.  But not everyone even sends faxes to each other and there would be no added value if we just start randomly faxing people.

metcalfes law is a measure of POTENTIAL value.  Yet there is nothing to say the value could be filled.  You could a water system for a city and that would create enormous value, but if you create 100 systems for the same city, you will cause more problems then you fix.

Notice Szabo use of the word potential and redundancies:

Quote
Metcalfe's Law states that a value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its nodes.  In an area where good soils, mines, and forests are randomly distributed, the number of nodes valuable to an industrial economy is proportional to the area encompassed.  The number of such nodes that can be economically accessed is an inverse square of the cost per mile of transportation.  Combine this  with Metcalfe's Law and we reach a dramatic but solid mathematical conclusion: the potential value of a land transportation network is the inverse fourth power of the cost of that transportation. A reduction in transportation costs in a trade network by a factor of two increases the potential value of that network by a factor of sixteen. While a power of exactly 4.0 will usually be too high, due to redundancies, this does show how the cost of transportation can have a radical nonlinear impact on the value of the trade networks it enables.  This formalizes Adam Smith's observations: the division of labor (and thus value of an economy) increases with the extent of the market, and the extent of the market is heavily influenced by transportation costs (as he extensively discussed in his Wealth of Nations).
http://unenumerated.blogspot.ca/2014/10/transportation-divergence-and.html

Right, causes Ver's claim that increasing the tps and users implies more value is a childs view of economics.  Like why can't we just print more money for everyone (sound familiar (hint bch)?)

Furthermore the big block agenda fights for the average joe, average joe brings very little value to the network compared to, for example, two nations that want to settle on the block chain.  you need many many average joe's to matter value wise compared to international settlement. You can't weight the users the same.

If we used metcalfes law the way much of the community has misten it to be, you could just get everyone to start sending everyone bitcoins and we would all be rich because the price would skyrocket forever.




82. Post 20552188 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: r0ach on August 02, 2017, 03:01:03 AM

This is the dumbest sentence I've ever seen on this forum.  The burden of proof isn't even on others to prove increasing throughput increases value, the burden of proof is actually on you to prove that bitcoin has any value whatsoever as a settlement network and that 4 TPS would somehow allow it to fill this role.  

Szabo made the conjecture and asked if anyone wanted to help him code publically.  The burden was on him, and so his next step would be to provide empirical evidence through an experiment with an anonymous  paper that could be peer reviewed without the bias of knowing who wrote it.

Wait did you all forget how academics works?



83. Post 20554622 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: becoin on August 02, 2017, 06:55:23 AM

Not yet. Still waiting for the BCC/BCH network to get stable. I'm grateful to Ver and Wu for generous free money drop.

Price of BCC/BCH is not yet indicative as we can't deposit it to exchanges, but if we add it to bitcoin price we actually have new ATH!



Which makes sense because when you divide money into two and add free money you get more money than you started with.  Roger Ver economics.



84. Post 20560497 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Lol:

Quote
Kraken Exchange‏Verified account @krakenfx  1h1 hour ago
More
 BCH deposits + withdraws may not be available for several days. We won't enable funding until we think it's safe.



85. Post 20560863 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

On the one hand the price is skyrocketing!  On the other hand the valuation is largely comprised of the illiquidity:

Quote
BCH is currently trading around 0.15 BTC on Kraken. This is double to even triple as much as it was yesterday. However, since many users are still unable to (securely) access their BCH, and almost no exchanges allow for BCH deposits yet, not to mention the slow state of the Bitcoin Cash blockchain to get transactions through, these prices are likely distorted to some extent.
5:10 am ET

Quote
“To prevent 51% attack, BCC @bitcoincash deposits to ViaBTC need 20 confirmations before available for withdrawal.”
@ViaBTC
4:59 am ET

Anyone have a solution?

Hopefully this ends up in bch continuing to rise and every one both sides of the civil war getting rich either by selling and/or hodling...



86. Post 20562858 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: fluidjax on August 02, 2017, 01:15:03 PM
...if I had sold BCH on an exchange I be getting my BTC off it quick.
I know this sounds like FUD, but I'm just making everyone aware of of the risk, take care, who knows how exchanges would deal with it.
As I understand no such quick option exists for the majority of players.



87. Post 20563708 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

We're learning how exchanges work and what the difference between price and value is.



88. Post 20565971 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: AMIANORPHANEDBLOCK on August 02, 2017, 03:01:35 PM
Large blocks = Gold
Segregated Witness = Fiat

Asia wants gold.
USA wants to print money.
nope changing bitcoins block size via politicalbattle destroys its gold like property. Bitcoin cash is not digital gold and will not be viewed by the markets as such



89. Post 20569671 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: julian071 on August 02, 2017, 06:06:20 PM
Can we get a new poll for the thread?  Cheesy

What kind of poll do you want?
I'm tempted to make a poll regarding BCC price, but this isn't supposed to be an altcoin thread.

I agree, all that is interesting about BCC is what it means for the price of BTC.

If you do want to make a poll related to BCC, maybe you could ask something pertaining to that, so e.g. whether people think this fork will a) show that the governance model of BTC is working as it should or b) shows the inherent weakness of the governance model of BTC etc. Just thinking out loud here.

Thanks again infofront for maintaining this thread, it's running very well! We can discuss developments that both in the short term and the long term influence the market value of BTC. Walls may not be the most important things in that respect anymore.
there is no better poll than the long run of the aggregated exchange prices. But Bach prices are not matured enough yet.



90. Post 20569715 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: d_eddie on August 02, 2017, 06:07:45 PM
Exchanges, on the other hand...


Lets say there is a miner underground movement to recompile the client with 8MB block limit.  They can do it, and they don't even have to tell anyone.   However, the first ones to do it are risking it, because their big blocks will probably not end up in the longest chain.  

However, if more than 50% do it, we get a hard fork, and small block miners are forced to switch.

And, believe me, exchanges would be first ones to switch, as they have most to lose.


Yes: if all miners switch, there's only one way things can go. However, if a minority stubbornly sticks to the old chain, we have 2 chains. The exchanges will probably list both coins and let the market do the rest. Which the market is doing right now. Let's give it some time.
its fucked how people have been screaming at small blockers to read the white paper when literally they themselves stoped at the title



91. Post 20571753 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: rjclarke2000 on August 02, 2017, 07:13:18 PM
Oh no... my free money

Hmmm, I wasn't quick enough either. I'll sell next pump.
weird how that happens



92. Post 20571795 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Y'all can call Bitcoin cash bcash for short. Has a better ring anyways



93. Post 20571869 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: GHCoins45 on August 02, 2017, 07:26:16 PM
Oh no... my free money

Hmmm, I wasn't quick enough either. I'll sell next pump.

same here, do you think there will be a next pump?
absolutely. Think about it. U and others want to sell really bad right? Well the price wait for until u sell as long as u hold until u sell. Right when u all sell just make sure u exchange fast before the price drops from u parting with ur bcash.

U gotta be fast!

And if someone can msg ver or wu and ask them to prop the price up by burning some of there wealth in the meantime that would help too.



94. Post 20574473 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: RewFrew on August 02, 2017, 04:08:26 PM
We're learning ... the difference between price and value is.

Mid-lesson. The hard way.

Can you both elaborate please.

I Wanna learn too.

Absolutely, follow me...

Quote from: Guezt on August 02, 2017, 10:07:36 PM
BCH All Time High on Bittrex: $1,311
BCH All Time High on Kraken: $811

Meanwhile bitcoin peaked at $2,900.

Could it be that everybody is holding because:
- we can never be sure how things are going to turn out.
- both blockchains could end-up being equally valuable in their own way.
- most bitcoin owners are not poor peasants looking forward make a few thousand dollars for free.
- nobody uses bitcoin in real life so pure speculation is what drives the price and not market economics.
- holding is life.

And of course, most people are retards and didn't move their coins to Kraken, Bittrex and ViaBTC even though they had weeks to prepare. So we might have yet to see real volume.
You are quoting exchanges that people are having a hard time getting any coins either on or off or confirmed.  Kraken said they would be days not sure the status yet.  Bittrex has an * beside the price on https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-cash/#markets

So what will happen is everyone that doesn't believe in bcash will cash in and this will bring downward pressure onto the price as they sell.  If no one can access the trades/exchanges then the price won't move down. But you can't argue that the highers price is real and an indication of VALUE because of the *'s.

These exchanges (at various times because the *'s are being updated) prices are not necessarily including in the make up of the price which is why it is far lower than these fake exchange prices.

In order to survive bcash needs to first have a reasonable match of its price to its value.  And that means enough honest/competing exchanges must participate in the make-up of the price and coinmarketcap will be a good indicator.  The markets must have a sufficient depth.  

It means bcash must whether this storm and so someone is literally expected to prop up this coin until everyone is done getting the free money.

So the price might not move, it won't like stay higher than it is, as it will be difficult for it to gain legs as everyone dumps.  It depends how bad these people want this to work and what they are willing to expend.

What seems likely though is as the price goes down most people will panic sell together.  Even supporters of bcash because its rational to sell and wait and buy back in if you think that its an irrational crash.

Price and value are not the same thing.  And today we learn this empirically.



95. Post 20574602 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

And to be clear if bcash crashes, that's not the interesting part, the interesting part would be what the nefarious players are willing to do/bet and for how long to prop the price how high?  We have enough exchanges now that you cannot fake this long term. 



96. Post 20578763 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Half the inflation rate would be viewed as better:



Picture is from around the time when he came up with the concept he called "ideal money"



97. Post 20578867 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on August 03, 2017, 03:34:44 AM
Bcash cost of production (difficulty) is now being slashed by 20% per block for the next 6 blocks. Expect miners to follow cost of production slavishly. Forking guys have no idea what they have unleashed ... it will become apparent soon now.
I understand now.  We can view the game as one player has ~51% need to attack.  They are being economically rational.  How does the game work when one player has ~51%(some uncertainty)?




98. Post 20578951 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

I need someone to find my a big blocker that understands economics to any significant degree?!



99. Post 20579329 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 03, 2017, 04:37:41 AM

Are you retarded Ibian?  You think that merely because 51% of mining power supports something then bitcoin should just change because of that?  Maybe you should think about how unstable such a rule would cause bitcoin to become?
I'm pretty sure thats the deal bro. We all signed up to it.



100. Post 20579386 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

You could have like 45% of the hashing power but own 50% of the exchange narrative and so you might think thats enough...



101. Post 20580102 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: r0ach on August 03, 2017, 05:12:51 AM
the developments that come AFTER segwait are more important then segwit itself.

Let the developments commence!


I can clear up your misunderstanding and help you align your actions with reality.



102. Post 20580221 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

I think roger ver might have stole the gox coins with karples and laundered them through btc-e and the btc-guy is negotiating to not be extradited to the US.  Ver has a deal for newly minted chinese miner coins and the chinese miners made a game theory calculation error.  Also Nash redefined einsteins work: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/john-nash-tweaked-theory-relativity-death-article-1.2241346



103. Post 20580237 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

It has to do with inflation theory.  And at first you would think cosmic inflation and monetary inflation are not relevant or related to each other but they are both concepts held up by propriety.



104. Post 20580744 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

im looking for anyone here who thinks they can hold a candle to me in regard to the macro economic implications of bitcoin



105. Post 20581152 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: mestar on August 03, 2017, 06:18:19 AM


Where 51% goes, the other 49% follows.


hash tag whitepaper. like west vs germany wwx's.



106. Post 20581302 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: r0ach on August 03, 2017, 06:40:53 AM
im looking for anyone here who thinks they can hold a candle to me in regard to the macro economic implications of bitcoin

The fact that you claimed increasing the throughput of bitcoin would have zero benefit to price when everyone knows it's current throughput is poor kinda put you in the mentally impaired category without us needing to go over any other issues.
Found that thought in accepted economic theory.



107. Post 20594750 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

They need help with their investigation. Expect more high profile arrests.



108. Post 20602556 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: Ted E. Bare on August 04, 2017, 12:18:51 AM
Let this BCH alt coin die already.
No.  It was already planned and known there would be a dump period.  The price will be volatile and with some downward pressure and the earlier seller sell off. Price can be propped up with orders and exchanges can claim different types of friction to halt the liquidity to keep the price showing bitcoin cash is relevant (ie not near 0).

once the dust settles or as it does, the mining is going to ramp up and the economics and game theory is going to change gears.  They will try to outpace the old chain.  

It's a near 51% attack, plus an equivalent attack using exchanges, plus an equivalent using whales that have enough of the market cornered.

So the coalition is making a conjecture they have enough power to overcome Satoshi's hidden conjecture that the system can't be usurped.

They have a gang of nefarious hackers that have been stealing coins and laundering them through nefarious exchanges that have deals with the new coin minters (ie the nefarious miners).

They have launched their campaign to over through the network and free millions up millions of stolen coins.

Meanwhile the candle is burning at both ends because arrests have already started and negotiations and prisoner's dilemmas have commenced.  



109. Post 20602639 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

we're gonna see a whale jump out of the ocean.  Also someone's made an error.



110. Post 20602840 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: deepcolderwallet on August 04, 2017, 01:22:48 AM


Explain yourself, lord of enigmas...
That's as far as I see.



111. Post 20602963 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

This war is going to evolve to involve fiat and nations



112. Post 20603118 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: Peter R on August 04, 2017, 01:55:34 AM



Big blockers blame small blockers for the fork; small blockers blame big blockers.  I think a split was inevitable given the two distinct visions for Bitcoin's future.

Regarding destabilizing mining, I think what this means is that in the medium term, only one chain will survive (at least with any real value).  The miners will eventually see their incentive to kill off one of the chains. 

The question is which one. 
The community doesn't realize yet it has been besieged.



113. Post 20603286 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on August 04, 2017, 02:15:16 AM

Oh look, Peter_R and Paul (Ibian) have shown up to preach the 'hard-fork now!" Satoshi's vision gospel.
No they are welcomed.  We need the dialogue.  We opened pandora's box.



114. Post 20603404 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

So the trading volume and statistics will be watched for the timing when the vast majority of early sellers are finished so the next move will be calculated literally and coordinated.



115. Post 20603470 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: Peter R on August 04, 2017, 12:17:37 AM


What this suggest is that at times when BCC is more profitable to mine and the hash rate migrates to BCC, the average block time for BTC will increase significantly and BTC's already slow and expensive transactions will become much more so.  


Quote from: Torque on August 04, 2017, 02:28:21 AM


Also whereforeartthou, mempool backlog? Oh that's right, it only happens when someone is specifically and nefariously spamming the network.  Roll Eyes
Get ready for the spamminator. 



116. Post 20603946 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Coinbase is fucking hilarious.



117. Post 20630877 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: nanobtc on August 05, 2017, 05:27:57 AM

I know we don't like to face reality around here, but this train is CLEARLY on fire.



118. Post 20640445 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Does anyone here know how we objectively measure fiat value?

https://medium.com/@rextar4444/bitcoins-biggest-security-leak-is-core-s-ignorance-how-to-end-unnecessary-conflict-723084d9ec32



119. Post 20646057 (copy this link) (by traincarswreck) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.16h):

Quote from: Dotto on August 05, 2017, 07:10:40 PM
The economist calling for one world currency in 2018