I suppose that someone were trying to buy quietly like twins did last year, but they could not get enough coin by normal limit order. As soon as a bid wall raised, the ask wall will raise too, resulting poor excute price. The only way to buy a lot of coin is to suddenly eat up all the ask walls above. This is the same as people selling stocks in a very illiquid market, to sell enough amount of stock, you must sell as quick as possible so that the buyers don't have a chance to run away
My large buy order at $180 went through
Lessons learned from silk road crash: Always have an open large buy order in exchange at around 20% below current price
Possibly both wall are put up by the same person, trying to scare the speculators to sell into his smaller buy wall, so far some 100 coins were collected, but at the same time the sell war shrinked by 1000, so this is not running well now
It seems that hedge funds have managed to bribe some corrupted officials in chinese banks and sent all these ammunition into those chinese exchanges, OKCOIN most likely
In a steady-state system, the price of a monetary asset is given by the "quantity theory of money", which states that:
P x Q = M x V, where P is the price of the goods - so the price of the monetary asset is its inverse: B = 1 / P
B = 1/P = Q / (M x V)
Q is the amount of goods bought by the monetary asset, M is the amount of monetary asset in circulation, and V is the average velocity (the number of times per year that a given bitcoin is used to buy something).
V is the inverse of T, the (harmonic) average holding time of a bitcoin: the number of years a bitcoin is held as store of value.
So the "end value" in steady state of a bitcoin will ultimately depend on two things:
how much stuff is bought using bitcoin, and how long one holds one's bitcoins.
This theory is too simplified, and has many flaws, thus not used by bitcoin community
1. The formula only works when there is only one currency
If there are multiple currencies in circulation, that will become PQ=m1v1+m2v2+m3v3+... Because bitcoin is only one small currency in circulation, you can not use the formula to calculate its price since you don't know how much goods are exclusively sold for bitcoin (maybe none)
2. Not all the money has the same circulation speed
For a given amount of dollar, the V for each dollar is different, impossible to use this model to calculate anything. For example, FED has created 6x more money since 2008, but majority of those money has a velocity of 0 (hold at FED as reserve), thus removed from circulation
3. The P in the formula usually don't include capital goods (for example MBS or bitcoin), which consists of majority of today's money flow. When capital goods enter the formula, the calculation will be totally changed and the price level of daily goods will become irrelevant
For bitcoin, there is one simple method to calculate its value: The mining cost. Mining cost is the lowest possible cost to get bitcoin, it is the baseline for its valuation
A large scale short squeeze on Huobi
Keep buying... even there will be a fork, the pre-fork coins will worth double
Judging from trading volume, large Chinese whales tried to push up, but faced enormous resistance, I think they will start a new round of consolidation before the coins are more in firm hands
It is too easy to make a 50% profit in a couple of months, many mid-term speculators will just sell