All posts made by aspa in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 9535697 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
Hi. Time to stop lurking.. 435 seems to be the target for those who want to choo-choo:)
http://s28.postimg.org/u5vzl7eod/2014_11_13_BAM.png(EDIT: bigger pic)
2.
Post 9535822 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
that image is pretty small (talking about the original size you uploaded it).
maybe you could upload it in higher resolution next time and then use the width attribute of the img tag to scale it down for display here.
That way people could see the full resolution version and at the same time you wouldn't disturb the thread with huge pics.
Thanks, will remember, also updated img
3.
Post 9539070 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
http://s26.postimg.org/kv0za26l5/2014_11_14_Still_Down.pngSame lines as yesterday, but with new candles and 1d instead of 3d chart (finex/bitwisdom)..
Honestly, I was wondering what the next candles would do, but this was more striking than expected.
Same conclusion: first line of downtrend line is wrecked, which is kind of a fun thing. The other line, which showed significant resistance, has been tested (for the first time actually..) but is still holding. For now?
4.
Post 9539102 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
A thing of beauty, much like the bottoms below your post.
5.
Post 9539419 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.
My guess: breakout attempts in a low-volume, volatile market that doesn't fully support the uptrend (yet).
Low volume is the norm, some players are probably liquidating their stash regularly without caring too much for the exact price, and sometimes there's a (good or bad) reason for some actors to put some bigger amount of cash into the market. Also, there's a more healthy amount of money *and* coins waiting to be put in the books when the prices deviate too far from the predictable range (an elastic rope with a length of about 80 usd).
In short: the swings are the result of the thin volume..
So I agree: the recent increase in volume at most exchanges is a good thing. Perhaps now we can expect actual market prices somewhere in the near future..
Note that if money isn't going to gush in again soon, we're falling back into the old down-trend. (And even if that old down-trend is broken, we might get a parallel trend..)
Not trying to be bearish here, just cautious;)
6.
Post 9539468 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
So we are still in a downtrend?
It is not over yet?
sideways... bear is not trend anymoar
If we break 435/440, sideways is open to change to bullish..
(And like with any TA conclusion, I have to add that if that happens, it can still stay a sideways or bearish channel
)
7.
Post 9539819 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
Hi,
My very first TA, voluntarily simple. I'm not a big fan of TA but I wanted to give a try, so be gentle with a newcomer in TA.
Basically, I consider it is possible for BTC to continue up once at $370 - with probably some overcorrection going first, so that a buy at $360 could make it.
TA. I'd appreciate you tell me why you think it is plausible or what is lacking in it, for education.
Thanks.
http://i.imgur.com/Un6kt3M.pngHi!
Not sure you should do TA on a retrace. What does it mean: where does it give resistance, what trend does it uncover?
Also, I don't see the support in the bottom line. You could try drawing one from that 316 bottom, consider your starting point as a failed downward breakout, and keep the second support in your line. But I think it's weak support, with no volume behind the bottoms.
Have fun!:)
8.
Post 9540245 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
Thank you aspa! Your feedback helped me immensely. Now I know a little bit more how much I don't know
Then here's some more food..
Read up on patterns and their link to behavior, e.g., here:
https://www.credit-suisse.com/pwp/pb/pb_research/technical_tutorial_de.pdfCandle sticks themselves are fun too. Read more here on them too! E.g., here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_candlesticks and
http://www.fxkeys.com/category/candlesticks/Next step is to actually trade on them instead of only analyse them.. Most people only start to get healthy caution after losing a lot of money because they still match patterns to their emotions. Feeling happy? You'll see that great bullish pattern. Took a bearish position? Confirmation bias will lead you to plenty of bearish patterns and indicators..
(Not sure if I'm there yet. I was born a bull I guess. But a more happy bull when in bitcoins then in oil, that's for sure
)
9.
Post 9540648 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
Whatever the cause, this 3-day rally and crash generated trades totaling over 1 million BTC at OKCoin, several million BTC overall. The exchanges must have collected several million dollars in fees and interest, and arbitragers (possibly the exchanges themselves) must have made many millions too.
Is that with or without counting all trades twice?
http://www.coindesk.com/asian-exchanges-adopt-controversial-counting-method-futures-trades/
10.
Post 9540786 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
In that paragraph I was not including the futures' markets like BitVC and 796.com (which, IIUC, are the only ones doing double-counting). But the volumes during those two days were huge either way.
OK:) And indeed, huge. Still not completely calm there..
11.
Post 9540828 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
My best guess. No new bubble until February 2015. More time to acquire cheap coinz at around 0.38-0.40$ per 1kbits. I also think there could be one last sell-off in late december/early january reaching 0.3-0.32$ per 1kbits.
Excellent example of confirmation bias. Your bullish line is weak, little evidence it gives support. The bottoms in this chart could just as well be an inverted dish, which would mean we would be moving sideways for some months and then go down again for another 2 years..
http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/283/288/a20.jpg
12.
Post 9541096 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
There's a war at 414, the 38.2% fib retrace from 315/475, and the bulls might just win
13.
Post 9541445 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
New battle at finex. Seems to be locked between 414 and 405. Stamp should lead the way
14.
Post 9541648 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
Somebody seems serious about defending 405.. Why?
15.
Post 9542247 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
Where do you guys think we will go from here??
Up or down?
Down
UP
Great timing buddy, just when market sells of hundreds of coins are pouring in
16.
Post 9542316 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
50% fib retrace @ 395 holding like a king:)
(for now.)
17.
Post 9542715 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
What is going on
What's going on is we're up over 16% since a week ago. That in itself is pretty crazy, anything above 400 at this time is just incredible.
We're down 7.5% in 24hrs
http://s30.postimg.org/kh7abj8n5/Capture.jpgWe?
Yes, also all of NotLambchop's one coin.
18.
Post 9542769 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
Looks like we'll be headed back down for another month or two.
Based on what exactly? Not on the charts.. These are still in between land and water as far as the trend is concerned. Not on the fundamentals either.
19.
Post 9543220 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
20.
Post 9543324 (copy this link) (by aspa) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.31h):
^
Don't be bro, just some friendly advice
Yes well that way that online penis below my name will never grow to an impressive four-star size
