All posts made by ineededausername in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 1860890 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
This has been one wild week... I've been dealing with calls and emails nearly 24 hours a day. Managed to keep most of the panic sells between old and new clients and off the market.
So has the panic stopped? Are we going to see more upwards activity again?
2.
Post 1863720 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Good game, bears. 144k BTC to $50 now, more than ever. You should just move your asks up to $200 now and spare us the trouble because that's where we're going.
3.
Post 1864018 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
the cat is fucking alive!
4.
Post 1864061 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Why the hell wasn't there any lag on the way down?
5.
Post 1865584 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
I'm not sure why that has to be a bearish triangle.
6.
Post 1870223 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
BTC comeback time! I see the spring coiling at $95. I remember what happened the last time...
7.
Post 1875530 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Nobody gives a damn about DDoSes anymore, because a lot of bears got hurt the last time they tried to panic sell on lag.
8.
Post 1875878 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Anyone smell that roasted bear smell? mmmmm
9.
Post 1879735 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
In two weeks we'll be saying, "Crash? What crash?"
10.
Post 1879768 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
that chart completely ignores depth
11.
Post 1902693 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Why'd Adam have to go and balkanize the wall movement tracker threads? Now we've got quite a few and they all suck
12.
Post 1904701 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
DDoS Attacks End Here
13.
Post 1905350 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Well, the price dropped $5 on a major DDoS. We're getting used to this
14.
Post 1911140 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Do none of you remember the manipulation scam "BitcoinTip" pulled on everyone?
15.
Post 1915196 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
This is the first time loaded said the week would be fun since before the crash!
16.
Post 1924790 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
What if the whole crash was the mid-May'11 phase of the bubble (for those of you who were there back then)?
What if it all ends, not at $266, but at $1000?
17.
Post 1924884 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
What if the whole crash was the mid-May'11 phase of the bubble (for those of you who were there back then)?
What if it all ends, not at $266, but at $1000?
I was here for the 2011 bubble, I would enjoy this scenario greatly!
Thousands of bitcoiners are going to retire soon!
18.
Post 1925618 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
What's amazing me is the way the bid side keeps so steady or builds, even after large volumes of buys at the $130 and $140 mark. pre-$140 we were 40k+13k down to $120/$130, and now we're 40k+15k, and that's after all the $140 buying. We were 67k down to $100 and 31k up to $150 , and now we are 67k + 24k, so the bid side really is doing a great job, considering the buying at $130 and $140
Once we break $150 i wouldn't be surprised to see us go up to $200 quite quickly as the panic buying starts and supply drops
This might be heretical in a wall-observer thread, but
people are wasting too much time reading the chicken entrails of wall movements.
For every buyer there is also a seller, for every dollar in there is a dollar out of Bitcoin. The only reason the price goes up is
sentiment.When sentiment changes then floods of sell orders will appear from nowhere. I bet there was a monster wall at $230 when the price hit $266, but it didn't do any good. If the price suddenly shot to $1000 then there would soon be a tidal wave of sellers taking profits until it hit the last level where sentiment had a consensus ($125, or even $95).
I think the 4-year logarithmic trendline is the best indicator of sentiment, based on fundamentals, and this points to a stable price at $200 and eventually $1000 in the future, but not because of all the wall-dances along the way.
I watched the move to $266 live, the bid side got weaker and weaker and total bids plummeted before the crash. At one point I believe the depth down to $100 dropped to ~30-40k BTC.
Depth does matter.
19.
Post 1930553 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
20.
Post 1937926 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
howbout them technicals?
Last price:$154.53000 High:$166.43438 Low:$140.96635 Volume:217046 BTC Weighted Avg:$152.84946
Yup, those certainly are technicals!
technical:
21.
Post 1948048 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
also blockchine.info wallets are getting hacked.
this should cause some intense feeling of panic for nubs.
some will make safe paper wallets
some will cash out.
I agree,bitcoin-centeral coins I think are being unloaded at the Gox.It is the only real place that has the market to absorb a lot of coins.
No, a few hundred coins were stolen, not a very big deal at all.
22.
Post 1952999 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Going up again
23.
Post 1959691 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Gox queue length and total bids are a good measure of new buyers (or at least new money). All else is irrelevant.
24.
Post 1960774 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Here comes the panic again? Fun times! I'm going to buy a crazy amount of coins at $100 if it gets there.
25.
Post 1960820 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Here comes the panic again? Fun times! I'm going to buy a crazy amount of coins at $100 if it gets there.
Doubt it will do that, there's the great wall of China @ 120
either way I'm happy... I have coins, too
26.
Post 1960880 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Everyone needs to try harder, today has been somewhat boring.
27.
Post 1963919 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Can someone please tell me this depth is some sort of joke? Why is there still only 1000 BTC to $125?
On the plus side there's 23k to $120 now.
28.
Post 1994802 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Let's go, $100! Hopefully this time it works out...
29.
Post 2005930 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Confession: I've been out of the game with all my money on gox for a while. It has all been sold at $140 and upwards.
Unfortunately, I think my speculation on the nature of the bubble burst was off. This was a major upswing, and I realize the differences now.
Minor upswings ($15.38 in Aug'12) are characterized by (1) not too much press and (2) slower userbase growth. The nice thing about that is that when the faucet of new funds is turned off, a complete crash does not happen. It crashed from 15.38 to 7.58 before bouncing, and gradually went up to 13 again. Overall, pretty stable boom-bust-recovery.
Major upswings are rapid phases of adoption. Unfortunately, when the fountain of new funds is gone, these seem to burst painfully.
However, the upswing this time was accompanied by great development of fundamentals (userbase growth, service growth, awareness, interest from VCs + SV + the "mainstream"). In two years, I'm sure the bulls will be winning. There hasn't actually been too much catastrophically bad news for the Bitcoin economy, in comparison to '11, and this is simply a case of deflated expectations (including my own). The crash may be painful but this is certainly not going to be the death of Bitcoin, so I think it is very reasonable to wait for the bottom, buy in, and then watch it go to new ATHs
We might have to be a bit patient though.
30.
Post 2005985 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
We might have to be a bit patient though.
Heh, if by a bit you mean 3 or 4 years, yes a bit.
The crash shouldn't take more than 6 months, until the forum shifts into capitulation mode (a-la Oct'11), at which point we're going to see slow, steady growth for a while, from whatever price the bottom is.
It may have taken a long time to climb back to 31.91 or whatever the previous ATH was, but the growth began in Nov'11.
31.
Post 2026866 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Double digits incomming
I remember when that would've been a bullish statement, way back in July 2012...
32.
Post 2027061 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Bitcoin prices have always followed the principle of least expectation...
33.
Post 2029495 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
This is not an over reaction. You need to realize that this is a Chinese government sanctioned news outlet. Bitcoin would not be on CCTV if it was not 100% endorsed by the Chinese government.
Also btcchina was down for maintenance.
34.
Post 2031284 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
This is definitely the last one today, if you don't believe NOR know math you can go home If you do either, and buy bitcoins, you will be very rich
I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:
When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow.
This must grow by 100% to reach
When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a
factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing.
This must grow by 100% to reach
4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users.
This must grow by 100% to reach
8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing
very fast)
This must grow by 100% to reach
16 people in 1000 (1.6%) ->
1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984.
SINGULARITYWhen this is reached, the utility tends to infinity.
Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2.
In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months.
- The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!))
- The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users
The number of possible connections between two users out of N is actually N choose 2, which is quadratic...
35.
Post 2032381 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
quadratic > exponential
I don't think that's true either
36.
Post 2039878 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
I have a feeling that goat is right.
It will visit double digits today after all, one last time. Remember to buy yours then!
Don't think so. Anyhow, your prediction skills are state of the art, man.
Thanks. Wonder I have any bitcoins left...
rpietila, perhaps you should stick to arbitrage
37.
Post 2042671 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
It just boggles my mind that someone will play around with 2mil in cash in a market like this. I wonder how many BTC he has?
Zero. And just learned about Bitcoin, how amazing it is, and wants a long-term holding like Winklevii, Exante and Keiser?
If someone really wanted to get in at 110 with 2 mil, I think they would put a much smaller wall there and then reinforce it as it gets eaten
Unless they don't give a shit because they HAVE 2 million to play with
You don't earn $2m by screwing around like that.
38.
Post 2043645 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
There's actually a lot more depth above $90 than before (50k BTC out of 0 a few days ago). We're fine.
39.
Post 2044105 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Will be interesting to see where this has ended up tomorrow when I wake up. $118 right now, who knows...
40.
Post 2044209 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
I had no problem taking a walk knowing that our saviour wall was there. Now however, I don't really feel safe enough to go sleep.
You want it back, don't you?
41.
Post 2050762 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Does anybody know if the May 5th. value is accurate? It's showing up as 0.
As far as I can tell, the latest one is always 0.
42.
Post 2051878 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.56h):
Everyone run for the hills, it's going to $40 this time
43.
Post 2060773 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
Sigh, another lag and dump...
If anything, I like to tell myself that the dumper is just redistributing his coins to a larger number of holders. Deep down though, I know it's probably the opposite though
Wow, mccorvic, what happened? Where did the permabull confidence go?
44.
Post 2062100 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
What. Out of all possibilities a few hours ago, this one seemed the most unlikely.
45.
Post 2062268 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
wow, this is a clear dump-and-pump-and-dump...
46.
Post 2065553 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
I think it's important to realize that a floor can essentially be set at 50, simply because there is too much money in the system.
Consider a large holder of Bitcoin (a few of these exist). At least 5 of them will have sold >$1m each (if you don't believe this, let's say 50 with $100k) and still have some remaining while it was going up, or during the two bounces (to $200 and to $166). So that's $5m.
Bitcoin has never had $5m of bids at low prices (below 50) without going up. These major players will be able to put up bids well in excess of 100k BTC. And if by some calamitous event it reaches $20, there will be quite a few people who can form almost insurmountable bidwalls. We're talking 200k-300k BTC aggregate demand at such levels.
Too much money in the system. Bitcoin can't go so low.
This is very different from June 2011, when bids were so weak, a sale of 10k BTC could drop it >30% at the peak. This rally was well-supported by money coming into the system from big players who have a good understanding of fundamentals. At $30, the price can move from housewives who saw BTC on TV buying in. At $200, money necessarily comes from big players who have researched Bitcoin thoroughly, and who all have a long-term, rational view of Bitcoin.
The money in Gox/Bitstamp is larger in quantity than 2011, and different in nature. I think this is enough to conclude that a massive drop of 90% from peak is not in the cards. Then it's not so unreasonable to say that 80% from peak, or $50, is the floor.
47.
Post 2076397 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
188k BTC to $50, haven't seen it this high since the rally a few weeks ago to $166.
48.
Post 2080047 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
We may be entering an September-December 2012 sort of situation. Some panics, but the concept of "panic" is just a drop from resistance to support, and we trade in a relatively narrow range of, say, $80-$120.
I see bid depth going way up, although most of it is far below current price. Ask depth is also very good. This indicates a potential prolonged period of relative stability to me.
49.
Post 2080063 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
Shot from the era of stability:
Imagine we are at $11 in that picture. That's 30k BTC down to $10, which is similar support to what we currently have.
50.
Post 2081565 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
Why does mtgox.com not work, but mtgox.com/login work?
51.
Post 2081584 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
Why does mtgox.com not work, but mtgox.com/login work?
I suspect website issues.
orly
52.
Post 2081832 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
Stability
First DDOS to fail to drop the price.
53.
Post 2082166 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
I think Gox is down again. And this time login doesn't work either.
Meh, nothing to do but wait and watch.
Up for me.
54.
Post 2084899 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
I don't think we've ever seen quite this level of entrenchment after January. This might be the stability we've been waiting for
55.
Post 2084982 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
Gox down again? WFT?
Yep
nope, I can still log in.
56.
Post 2093473 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
1k wall just pulled off at around 110. Depth to 100 was at 32k an hour ago. It's now sitting at 30.5. asks were at ~31k to 125, now sitting at 36k. Getting a little top heavy I think.
EDIT: bids at 30k now
EDIT: 29.9k @ 100 / 36.5k @ 125
Oh no, a massive 1k BTC wall pulled, sell...
57.
Post 2093536 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.57h):
Well, let's see... what are some eras of stability that we've seen before?
$5... until it exploded to $15
$13... until it exploded to $266
The waiting starts now
58.
Post 2102335 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
Why the boredom again?
I expected an afternoon full of actions.
Because this is not what anyone thinks it is. It moved from $11 to $12 back in late 2012, it might just be oscillating around normally.
59.
Post 2117613 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
I love how sentiment changes so quickly, everyone was bullish on the way up to $122. Now, after drifting back down to equilibrium, everyone is bearish. This is going to happen a lot for the next two months...
60.
Post 2137115 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
Those bids are really piling up.. 20k at $110 now.
61.
Post 2143551 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
Feels like December 2012
No volume, but bids rising and a ton of asks to eat!
62.
Post 2144552 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
Here we stand, at $119, just like we stood at 3.2, 5, 13, 19, 31, 49, 78, 94...
63.
Post 2146419 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
Ask bids are slowly piling up and buying pressure is slowly expending
I think we won't be breaking 120 for a few days unless some big players decide to buy 4k of bitcoins or the mega walls there are lifted.
There is at least one person who I know is debating whether to buy that entire wall right now.
64.
Post 2180296 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.59h):
120.10000 33.58015687
120.00000 4523.48032917
119.90000 960.47309392
...snip...
If that pair get dumped we will have a repeat of the dump earlier this week when price fell to $109 from $119. Be very careful buying now...
That dump came because of bad news...
65.
Post 2258192 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
Looks like my dreams of early retirement may materialize this year!
66.
Post 2288826 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
Clarkmoody lagged on me... was the wall bought, or removed?
Bought, all of it...
67.
Post 2288854 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
I read the other day that the stock exchange in London want to use lasers to speed up trading, maybe Mt Gox should follow suit and throw their 28k dial up modem out and get something better too.
28k is an upgrade for them
68.
Post 2291980 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
No reason to panic at all, people are getting stupidly twitchy these days.
69.
Post 2322048 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Holy selloff batman!
Or, holy shakedown
Still it amazes me how little it goes down.
A sell like this was enough for a drop to 110 dollars a while back...now it drops a few dollars. People don't panic anymore like they used to do.
Instead it seems people consider it a great opportunity to buy "cheap coins".
I could be wrong but that's the feeling i have.
I get that feeling too. Maybe it's because every panic has been beaten back so well. I still remember the panic to $98 being turned straight around back to >$110.
70.
Post 2364896 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Fiat coming back slowly, I think $1m has reappeared since the whale sold.
71.
Post 2369891 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
The latest wave of seizures was actually announced in the LR warrant a while ago, so they are no surprise.
72.
Post 2394830 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
All that needs to happen for the price to start rocketing again is for the big VCs to back a fully-registered, convenient-to-use, stable and secure exchange, eliminating all uncertainty from the market. Is that so far out of the question?
Every major down-spike in the last few weeks has been due to the government or MtGox doing something wrong, but with all the VC money flowing in, things are going to get better.
I can't wait to see what Bitcoin looks like on New Year's Day 2014
73.
Post 2397484 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Given the current stability, I'm hesitant to characterize this as a 2011 burst rather than a late 2012-type correction.
74.
Post 2397534 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Given the current stability, I'm hesitant to characterize this as a 2011 burst rather than a late 2012-type correction.
Also the 2011 bubble inflated much higher, much faster, for much less reason. This time there was a lot of reason for a decent rise, and it rose less and slower. It just makes sense that it would fall less far in the aftermath.
Agreed.
75.
Post 2397597 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
who keeps dumping?
76.
Post 2402307 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Whale who sold 25k must be happy right about now.
77.
Post 2402397 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Anyone seeing a trend with these 5 am dumps?
78.
Post 2426850 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
The Manipulator reveals the drop to be a ruse!
79.
Post 2426891 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
idk what to do!
80.
Post 2427010 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
If the manipulator buys back in with all $3M all hell's going to break loose...
81.
Post 2446059 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
I wonder when Loaded will come back to stop the downturn. Perhaps we need to say his name three times.
Loaded, Loaded, Loaded!
82.
Post 2467946 (copy this link) (by ineededausername) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Is there something I don't know? No reason the price should be going down further... oh well.
