All posts made by HalFinneysBrain in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread



1. Post 10418921 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.57h):

Hello, I am here from the future to tell you about the stabilization of the Bitcoin price.

You see, over the past 15 months we had the enormous pump followed buy the slow 14 month bear market.  Markets are price discovery mechanisms, and after overshooting first to the upside, and then to the downside, things have finally stabilized more and more.   Down to 150, up to 310, down to 210, up to 250, and so on, with smaller dumps and smaller pumps as the price discovery mechanism did its work.

Eventually we settled down at exactly $231.84.  You see, bitcoin has been exactly $231.84 for many months now.  The people who thought it would stabilize were right!  

This thread gets pretty boring a lot of the time, with no real posts happening for days on end.  
We still get those chart buddy posts (we have since started referring to him as 'spambuddy' or 'bumpbuddy' since he keeps the thread bumped).  It is hilarious to see the enormous buy wall and sell wall 1 cent above and below the price, and then nothing else.  There are several million coins worth of sell wall and buy wall across the exchanges, at 231.85 and 231.83.  All of the trades go through in the no mans land between them at 231.84.

Every once in a while, some idiot will buy up at 231.85.  We will all make fun of him for overpaying.  The permabulls will return and proclaim that it is finally happening, and the thread fills with trains and rockets for the 1 cent rise.  And sometimes someone will panic sell down at $231.83!  And then people think Bitcoin is about to die, and there are bears and crashed trains and explosions filling up the thread.   The bollinger bands look pretty funny whenever that happens!

But the smart ones on the thread keep a level head and understand that the true value of a Bitcoin is $231.84, and everything will return to normal soon.


Most of the time this thread it is just dead.  Some of us actually use Bitcoin as a currency now, because it is so stable.  Coinbase and Bitpay are pretty much the new Paypal, but only for the cooler, trendy people who are more tech savvy.  All of the idiots long since gave up on their dreams of getting rich quick, since Bitcoin doesn't move anymore, which makes the board a lot nicer.  People talk about technical stuff and cryptography again instead of price.


Enjoy the remaining weeks of price movement before the great stabilization!  Nowadays, new people wonder what it was like to be an early adopter of Bitcoin, back when the price went up and down!



2. Post 10444001 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.58h):

Bitcoin is up $2.  Where are all the pictures of trains and rockets?



3. Post 10636814 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.01h):

Quote from: bassclef on March 02, 2015, 11:12:56 PM
Yeah owning a boat is expensive as hell. Repairs, fuel, rent, winter storage, crew (if you have a yacht), taxes... you need a steady income for something like that, not a one-time Bitcoin cashout.

Lotto winners and professional athletes/musicians who come from humble beginnings run into this problem all the time---they underestimate how expensive a "rich" lifestyle is. Not to mention you have family and friends who feel entitled to handouts coming out of the woodwork.

Buying a boat just might be the stupidest possible financial decision you could make.  

Buying Bitcoins at $1100 in Nove 2013 is a better decision.
Heck, giving your coins to cryptodouble.com mightve been a better decision. Wink


If BTC eventually goes to your fantasy price, and you cash out and blow the money on a boat, you deserve to go broke again and spend the rest of your life in regret at how badly you wasted the opportunity.  

Just because the stupid rich people blow their money on boats doesn't mean you should too.



4. Post 10636998 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.01h):

Dear Bears:
Stop failing at keeping BTC down. 
Please short like 50k more and hold it at 250ish for a while more.

I have a good chunk of money coming in a week or two and want to buy BTC.  It better still be in the 200s.



5. Post 10660922 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):

Good job bears, youre finally doing your job again.  Now knock it down at least $10 more and keep it there for a few days please. Smiley  I need to buy more.



6. Post 10661359 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):

What is this absurd poll, and how is the yes option winning.  Tongue
Knock off a zero and I'd vote 'maybe'.



7. Post 10673404 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on March 05, 2015, 09:35:51 PM
Is there any confirmation to auction being 30% above market?  Who started the rumor?  Don't tell me it was AdamstgBit.

Why would anyone bid that high above market?  You could buy 50k across several exchanges without driving it up 30%.  



8. Post 10673450 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):

Bears, please stop failing, hold it down for a few more days so I can get my new money in!
Short harder dangit!



9. Post 10673479 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):

Quote from: macsga on March 05, 2015, 09:40:17 PM
Is there any confirmation to auction being 30% above market?  Who started the rumor?  Don't tell me it was AdamstgBit.

Why would anyone bid that high above market?  You could buy 50k across several exchanges without driving it up 30%.  

This is utterly wrong and you should know it. How would you do that exactly? 50K would move the price above $350 no matter how many exchanges were involved.

Space 50k out over a week, over okcoin, huobi and bitfinex?  It would rise a lot, but probably not 30%.  Plus, you would get some coins near the current price before you drove it up that much.



10. Post 10714367 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):

The bears failed me during the past week.  Been waiting on money to transfer from stock accounts, finally finished this morning and now the price is over 280.  

Bought 24 btc this morning at 282, so I'm all in now (as much as I am willing to put into bitcoin that is).  Have no plans to sell these for years.

I'm not good at short term trading, itll probably tank now. Smiley



11. Post 10715602 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):

Quote from: Morecoin Freeman on March 09, 2015, 07:11:24 PM
Whelp I'm about to lose a shit load of money when I get margin called on my short. That's what I get for doubting The Bitcoin :p

Also the reason I only trade with funz money.
At what price will your position get liquidated?

That sounds like a great piece of info for someone to reveal to the world on a bitcoin message board. Cheesy



12. Post 10716274 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):

295 on Finex.
Where are all the pictures of trains?



13. Post 10716556 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):

Down 5 bucks, so we are crashing to 200 now right?



14. Post 10718519 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):

Quote from: lyth0s on March 09, 2015, 11:35:57 PM
Today is a good day, BTC up and one of the few alts I hold XMR rose 30%.

XMR broke 0.002BTC, pretty exciting! https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_xmr

Glad I got in for dirt cheap Cheesy

If you are going to buy alts, why not buy actual 2.0 coins with lots of features?



15. Post 10730798 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):

Any price under 400 is very cheap, and all the long term bulls who trade in and out trying to get more coins are playing with fire.  

So many amateur traders capitulated turned bearish in the late stages of this bear trend (or turned from buy-and-hodlers into in and out traders), and so many newbies opened their first ever short positions in the 200s, convinced that it would recoup their losses and help them end up with more coins.  

User adoption, merchant adoption, transaction volume, venture capital investment, and so on are all significantly higher now than they were 12-18 months ago when bitcoin was at this price or higher.  

Maybe this rally will not last, or the next one, but sooner or later one will, and it will leave behind everyone who learned to trade for a moderate gain and then wait for a dump.  And they will howl in desperation as they beg the universe to let the bitcoin price come back down to let them back in at a price where they won't regret their actions, but it will not come.


I AM HODLING.



16. Post 10731726 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):

The dump has come today, and shorts have covered a lot, but it looks like the reason why the price held up well is that longs leveraged up heavily.  It is worrying for the short term. 
I much prefer to see the shorts in the heavily overextended position.



17. Post 10743567 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.04h):

Quote from: inca on March 11, 2015, 11:17:32 PM
Still no sign of the trolls. This really could be the reversal Smiley

Trolls were being paid to try to suppress the price until the auction for an auction bidder?  Now its done and he has his BTC so no more trolls?



18. Post 10795577 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.04h):

Quote from: fonzie on March 16, 2015, 10:36:05 PM
I would not say they were taken to the cleaners. They ended up earning hundreds of millions with essentially having done nothing.

Thatīs the reason why they are considered heroes among Bitcoiners.  Smiley

Well played. Smiley



19. Post 10808969 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):

Thats not bad at all, the Euro has dropped WAY more.



20. Post 10815783 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):

What the heck, why are margin longs increasing and shorts decreasing on this drop?  I wouldve thought it would be the opposite.  



21. Post 10815865 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):

Quote from: ghandi on March 18, 2015, 08:22:07 PM
Paycoin going nuts Grin

Why are some people so stupid.  Good, interesting, undervalued altcoin projects exist with interesting features. 

But they waste their money on paycon instead.



22. Post 10816675 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):

Bulls got wrecked again because they stupidly bought on margin AFTER we had been rallying for weeks.



23. Post 10816692 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):

This is the power of 130000 bitcoins getting stolen, which can then be dumped on the market...



24. Post 10819846 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):

CCMF?

Was it a bear trap?



25. Post 10827172 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.05h):

Hmm, someone just grabbed an enormous amount of both long and short swaps.



26. Post 11845841 (copy this link) (by HalFinneysBrain) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):

Quote from: chromosoma on July 10, 2015, 08:58:51 PM
Plot twist.
The LTC dump was fake, to get more LTC!!
...once it gets down to $3.