All posts made by Luno in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 3124076 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):
GF's get boring too, then nothing ever happens with them also.
2.
Post 3130752 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):
Since this has become the catch-all thread I'll just leave this here.
Reasons for concern. Bruce Schneier has written that he has seen a bunch of secret Snowden documents, and after seeing them, he recommends classical integer discrete log-based cryptosystems over elliptic curve cryptography. When asked to elaborate on why he thinks we should avoid elliptic-curve cryptography, he writes:
I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry.
http://crypto.stackexchange.com/questions/10263/should-we-trust-the-nist-recommended-ecc-parametersNice find.
3.
Post 3286714 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Don't Mt.Gox use cool down breaks on trading any more?
4.
Post 3295292 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Yeah, that IS interesting!
Could be an operative returning the remainder of his coins after closing the operation.
The Bureau also had a wallet for the coins in the "Mitt Romney extortion" anybody watching that?
5.
Post 3299000 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Stop bitching about low volume on Gox, during the next couple of days there will be plenty of volume.
Looks like it. Let's see which way it goes?
On balance volume is a good indicator. Could be a re-enactment of June-July.
6.
Post 3299565 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
There is negative inflow of money on Gox so if it looks like June or April there will also be less of a dead cat bounce the second time around. So we better be cautious no buy in on an intermediate plateau on the way down.
(I'm quite a frighted bear at the moment. I watched the flash dip to 110,-,but didn't act on it, as I as others think that volume is too low and it's too easy to be fooled by price action alone!).
RL markets are also in purgatory ATM, the DOW, DAX, whatever looks like Bitcoin these days also, so I guess that we are also waiting for the Congress to decide on debt ceiling, Obama care etc.
Last year Bitcoin was used a lot as reserve for prof currency traders, (maybe just Max Kaiser), so real currency market movements was mirrored instantly in Bitcoin. Is it still so, or has Bitcoin become more detached?
It takes quite a lot of effort and analysis to sense these connections between markets, and I don't put in the effort for the time being, so does anyone have a hunch if real markets still are good indicators?
7.
Post 3299732 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Last year Bitcoin was used a lot as reserve for prof currency traders, (maybe just Max Kaiser),
That is awesome!
It was quite funny: Twice I found my self watching BBC world or CNN announcing bad news about Cyprus and QED and manage to buy and watch the price go up 4-5 seconds later on Gox.
At the height of the currency war I spend as much time pondering about what tricks Cameron had up his sleeve to muscle Merkel. (It turned out that he has using Gorge Soros to destabilize the Euro by doing hefty Gold / Euro trades and by that forcing Merkel to give the English a better deal in EU), as I did watching Bitcoin. So having the "professional feel" of a high profiled trader, watching gold, Euro, USD, Yen on extra monitors, gives you a lot of edge in trading Bitcoin and gives you an early warning system, sometimes minutes, when doing trades on Gox.
As I said, That's almost a full time obsession and your family feels totally annihilated so I kind of returned to normal family father and don't really have that edge any more. That's why I'm asking if anyone have a feeling of close ties between Bitcoin and the real markets at the moment?
And the vid was nice, good voice!
8.
Post 3300291 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Same happened to me. I was obsessed. Then I realised that greed had sunk in it's claws and I decided to go back to my regular life and with cold storage for the years to come.
And we just hang around as old boxers, maybe hoping for a quick doubling?
9.
Post 3300568 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
As I said, That's almost a full time obsession and your family feels totally annihilated so I kind of returned to normal family father and don't really have that edge any more.
If I've said it once I've said it a thousand times:
Don't annihilate your family for the sake of bitcoins.
LOL, just alienated!
Is it like whistling on a ship to say it's surely calm today on Gox?
10.
Post 3301286 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
another tinfoilhat theory about lack of volume: what if 90% of trading (up until recently) was by a very small group of criminal traders, who have been caught or scared away from the major exchanges?
amirite, or amirite?
Real exchanges do "cosmetic" trades to have a current price when volume is low or non existing. That's not something that should go on for days however.
Most traders are not afraid of the FBI but maybe IRS.
11.
Post 3301450 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
Karen is a piece of art. Here's a comment from her to one of her Youtube videos:
The Rothschilds are under control of the Black Pope as knights in the order of the garter. According to the Jesuit and ex-manager of J.P.Morgan, Chris Lowney, the Society of Jesus was founded in 1540. Lowney writes in his book, the Jesuit Formula, that the Jesuits built the world's most influential company of its kind as confidants to European monarchs, China’s Ming emperor, the Japanese shogun, and the Mughal emperor in India. For 500 years the Jesuits seized power with the Knights of Malta.
She is educating herself on Bitcoin at the moment!!
12.
Post 3301701 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
They calculated that number based on the amount of transactions that occurred on SR and DPR's commission on every deal.
Wouldn't it be kind of self incriminating to post his wallet(s) here? The only way you could know was if you worked his books for him or had the wallet keys entrusted to you because he counts on you to keep his money safe?
13.
Post 3307289 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
Not that informative but fun:
14.
Post 3307874 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
Not that informative but fun:
Why such a small image? You know you can make them larger by clicking on them?
yes,I took the full 800x600 frames, but decided that the animation was not useful and scaled it down maybe to use as an avatar.
The animation would be nicer and scrolling smoother if there were updates every minute instead of every hour.
Is it a subscription service or some software? There is nothing on the image host that hints to how it's made.
15.
Post 3311993 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
In retrospect it seems obvious, but back then, the most optimistic talked prices around 4$ (we got to 7$ in what, two months?) . Anyone posting suggestions of 100-200$ was just like the guys now, talking about 10,000$ in 2015.
16.
Post 3317530 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
The big announcement? Let's see.
hen
Litecoin would be nice to trade against. If it's the fake Ripple XRP, then trrading Bitcoin on Gox becomes meaningless as the value of XRP's can be set arbitrarily.
17.
Post 3320813 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
I've been having this crazy idea lately, that Satoshi himself might come out of the woodwork and reveal himself once bitcoin hits mainstream. As if it was part of his plan all this time.
Or tell us that we are idiots, giving up our freedom to centralised exchanges and greediness?
18.
Post 5216459 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.12h):
This is awesome... sat watching it for like 10 minutes.
Give it a bit longer and you might see some fairly large transactions like this 35K
BTC one:
This isn't the largest I've seen, just the largest I've screencapped.
For days when everything stinks:
http://presstokill.com/coins/ (they have a listen to gox too)
19.
Post 5217488 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.12h):
What does everyone think is the cause for the massive continuous dump of btc on gox? I think it is just someone or a few ppl with tens of thousands of coins selling them for whatever reason, but I hear that some people think its manipulation and an entity is selling to itself to drive the price down. I see no way the latter case can actually be effective other than losing a major percentage of that entity's total goxbux/goxcoins. Sure, driving the price down will cause some panic selling (which in this scenario the manipulator tries to pick these panic-sold coins up), especially in the first stages of the detachment of gox prices to everywhere else, but when the price keeps going down and down on gox but not anywhere else, far less people are going to be selling their goxcoins in panic. The mega whale seller also cut down significant support all through 600s to 200s, and it will not be possible for it to buy back even 30% of those coins for the same price, judging by the orderbook ask depth. On the other hand, it seems as if most of the current supply of goxbux is dwindling under the great supply of btc the megawhale is dumping onto gox. To me this doesn't seem like manipulation but a huge increase in supply of btc if gox ever enables withdrawals, which through arbitrage will bring the prices much lower on other exchanges.
Also, does anyone have any other plausible justifications of the constant selling from the mega-whale?
Interesting question. The around 300$ GOX price is maintained not to jump all over the place. Walls and volume is to low to give any natural price stability. What are they waiting for? Gox on it's own could try to lure fiat holders in to reduce the $$ they owe (claims in Bitcoins might be easier to dismiss in court?), or as said elsewhere, make some suckers deposit some cash?.
But that still doesn't explain why the other exchanges are calm too. I think that their is a "gentlemen’s agreement" between exchanges not to take advantage on GOX, maybe for personal reasons, but also for Bitcoins image! If the price crashes because of the malability hack, It will look as Bitcoin itself has been compromised and people distrust the currency itself and not just an exchange.
It looks rigged sure. But calm is good right now from a PR perspective.
20.
Post 5217815 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.12h):
But that still doesn't explain why the other exchanges are calm too. I think that their is a "gentlemen’s agreement" between exchanges not to take advantage on GOX
That is easier to explain: MtGOX is a roach motel -- what goes in presently cannot get out, and perhaps never will. Except for naive investors who sell coins at other exchanges and sink their money into MtGOX, there is no communication between that market and all the others (which appear to be fairly well connected by arbitragers).
As others have pointed out, what the charts show for MtGox is trade of virtual "goxBTC" for virtual "goxUSD", that may be convertible one day to actual BTC and actual USD, at some unknown "exchange rate" between 1 and 0 (inclusive).
True, Gox is magical, I was not suggesting a conspiracy amongst exchanges, merely just a common incentive not to make everything worse for everybody.
I haven’t watched volume on multiple exchanges but there can't be much trade on the other floors if price action is so low?
The broader perspective might put us all in a roach motel, if banks choke bitcoin further. Too much mentioning of that in media the past 3 months Norway Canada Ukraine Denmark to mention a few.
Ideologically, it doesn't mean shit, Bitcoin is still beautiful, but this is a speculation thread, and it will have a severe impact on price .
21.
Post 5219091 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.12h):
I haven’t watched volume on multiple exchanges but there can't be much trade on the other floors if price action is so low?
MtGOX's volume was falling relative to other non-Chinese exchanges, and it had already lost its first place among them. As you can see from the tables that I have been posting, after they locked their exit doors their trade volume paradoxically exploded, from ~15 kBTC/day to ˜100 kBTC on certain days. Who knows how much of that is legitmate and how much is generated by the exchange itself.
In the next 48h beside volume, price will explode upward too. I don't think that whoever can will skip the opportunity to buy BTC at this exchange rate, so as bank wires slowly arrive to Gox we will see price go up until Thursday. After that I don't know what will happen, depends on Gox announcement.
Thanx for the update. Now got to find out if Max Kaiser still is running WOT over on RT
22.
Post 5221185 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.12h):
What i mean is that price going from the ~300 to 412 after the update, and then down to 250 without any new info, just somewhat illogical.
I would be thinking that if there are people who think that their coins are gone - they should've sold their coins days ago, not now
Some are claiming that cash withdrawals still work in Euro and Yen, so maybe it's cash that's leaving or people are hoping they can withdraw cash, that would have that effect on price.
My book on Gox must be wrong only 700 BTC buy, to up price to 400!
23.
Post 5254835 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.13h):
7 minutes to 7PM in Tokyo.
The silence is deafening.
6
This reminds of that scene in "Trading Places" where everyone is waiting for the orange crop report to be read...
Nice movie different clip, but wearyingly relevant too maybe :
http://www.popmodal.com/video/1277/Trading-Places-Final-Exchange-Scene-amp-Explanation
24.
Post 5264233 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):
having a bank statement that you deposited money at GOX is good. It will have more weight than a guy that only deposited a lot of BTC.
25.
Post 5265490 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):
heading over there to buy one coin more. you people have guts...
26.
Post 5302354 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.15h):
Lol, Bitcoin, good bye to currupt banksters!!
27.
Post 5311594 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
yea I want out of Australia too - I just don't know of any truly independent and non-corrupt place to go to though.
...the moon?
Cheap houses in Turkey, but sadly there is something about knowing the right lawyers and paying off officials if you as a foreigner want to buy property there.
28.
Post 5321228 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
If you hope Gox going away will make things better on the other exchanges, you're in for a surprise!
29.
Post 5321333 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
Goxcoin is on the nonstop slow pump to 400
It's a gauge of sentiment up to Monday morning as usual on the assumption that there are either news from Mark or fiat deposits rolling in Monday.
30.
Post 5321499 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
Goxcoin is on the nonstop slow pump to 400
It's a gauge of sentiment up to Monday morning as usual on the assumption that there are either news from Mark or fiat deposits rolling in Monday.
I fully expect Gox to drop the ball... again...
At least I'll be pleasantly surprised if they actually allow their
victims customers to get their funds (bitcoins) out.
Funny, being in a Japanese POV camp now for 10 months actually makes me a better earning trader, Its just all funny money.
31.
Post 5322001 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.16h):
Beautiful, let the Crypto mob take over Gox or Mark gets the blockchain around his neck.
32.
Post 5343438 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.18h):
"Ball bouncing down the stairs patterns" are forming on all exchanges. Nobody likes this Gox limbo it seems? There are plenty of corporate good Bitcoin news all over reddit/r/bitcoin, but it's doesn't do much to the graphs.
Small fry is selling low volume into this avalanche, so I have a hard time judging if this has substance as it can easily be reversed? On the other hand, No big dumps yet!
Anyone hoping for a press release from the unmentionable? Looks like we need our daily bogus from Gox to be certain things are as they were yesterday?
33.
Post 5351636 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.18h):
Glad i went full fiat. Lets see how low this can go.
Coinbase Bought Gox and are going to cover all Gox costumer accounts! that's really great news,
34.
Post 5434237 (copy this link) (by Luno) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.22h):
Maybe wall street having had enough of speculation threads on Bitcointalk?
