How do you know the crash was caused by someone dumping 69k coins at market? Is this a verifiable fact or speculation on your part?

If speculation, why do you believe someone did this?

I don't understand who in their right mind would do such thing?

I mean it's a very poor way to sell a position so large, right? Since you will get serious slippage?

I'm sorry but I can't find this on bitcoincharts or clarkmoody. Could you give me more details how to find this transaction? A link would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks, I believe you. Wauw, that does explain the crash.

Is it possible that this kind of selling does give the best price?

For example, did he get that order filled?

If yes, he probably got the highest price anyone got considering the amount of coins he had to sell?

lol, that's a good one

Though these example bubble charts also come in flavors

But point taken!

True, but you are overloading the forum with bearish talk Sold all your coins it seems

(just wait a little, still offloading mine  )

True, compared to world economy $120 is still cheap. But world domination takes time. Historical growth rate of bitcoin is somewhere around a tenfolding every 1-2 years. That just happened, so chances are low it will happen again anytime soon. A black swan event can ofcourse always occur, a single ambitious billionaire jumping into bitcoin can do the trick, so always be exposed to bitcoin with a decent percentage of your capital.

That being said, chances are higher for it to correct after a bubble than for it to launch into a new one shortly thereafter. So a good portion of your bitcoin capital on the sidelines is rational in my opinion.

lol

Couldn't summarize it better 

Trying to pick the bottom? I would say statistically I think your chances are the highest at $111 and $101 that those will be temporary bottoms. Not sure if statistically this is true, but I would think that right above big psychological resistance points has the highest chance to bottom out before a rebounce.

Question for the Wall specialists.

When you look at the form of the wall the sell side looks like a strong wave about to flood over the buy side, just like the buy side looked when it was going up fastly at the start of the year.

Currently the buy wall looks like a gradual slope up, looks much weaker then the wave on the sell side, and if I remember correctly the sell side also looked like this at the start of the year.

Is it fair to conclude that the sell side is stronger when looking at the form of the walls?

And is it fair to conclude from that that prices have a higher chance to go down than up, based on wall form?

That was a very interesting post. Thank you so much for sharing your opinion and experiences.

I've always found it contradictory that the most advanced technology would be adopted first by the least advanced countries. The cell phone analogy does not apply as they just skipped the landlines in 3th world but in no way did they adopt something superior as the West. The West also have cell phones, and for a much better price/quality likely.

Also on the regulation side, the least advanced countries have the most violent rulers. Bitcoin cannot become mainstream when oppressed by rulers in my opinion. It is already highly uncertain whether western governments will suppress bitcoin or not, so it looks totally unrealistic to me that countries with even less freedom like 3th world and Asia would see bitcoin become mainstream before the West.

Great tip, thanks so much!

Capital gain taxes are horrible, and I'm sorry for anyone being extorted that way. That being said, avoiding taxes can be a very bad investment advisor. One can easily lose a lot more in an investment than in taxes. This is again proven with bitcoin since the bubble popped. Anyone that locked in profits between $250 and $130 is ahead over holding, even after paying 30% taxes on the gains. Don't let the government interfere with your common sense to sell high and buy low. Easier said then done, I admit.



How can you buy considerably more btc when you only have 5% cash and 95% in btc?

This can only mean your capital is very small compared to your income. A situation I assume you want to change however going all in, even at a bottom, is very poor risk management, so chances are low that you will hold on to any capital you succeed in building up, as all-in strategies lead to ruin, sooner or later.

I understand that if your capital is low compared to your income, and your income is secure, that you are able to handle the risk to invest all your capital in bitcoin. However, if successful a switch of strategy is crucial in my opinion. Considering you have bought lots of coins during the depression of 2011, you have already 50 folded your invested capital around the recent top, but still you have not switched to an even somewhat more balanced strategy. This does not look healthy to me. I could be wrong, I'm judging based on very little information I have from your situation.



I strongly disagree. In investment it's not about how many bitcoins, gold ounces, real estate, or stocks that you are able to accumulate. It's about how much value/purchasing power you are able to build up.

You are thinking like a gold bug, or real estate bug, or stock bug. Sooner or later a decades long bear market arrives and they lose most of their purchasing power. At least they can say that it will go up again sometime in the future (though since it can take decades they might not be there anymore to experience it). With bitcoin nothing of the kind! Hard to imagine now but bad news can come in strides and a combination of development disagreements, outlawing by some major government and competition can seal the faith of bitcoin. So being a bitcoin bug is even more irrational as you cannot say with any historical certainty that if will come back sooner or later.

I'm sorry for being so confrontational but honestly I'm stunned to see this typical bitcoin bull talk still expressed today after the market proved you so wrong. Either I am missing something here or you are.

Following the sentiment here will separate you from your money in quick succession!

Reminds me of the funny episode where cartman visits the bank:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DT7bX-B1Mg

That doesn't work. When clicking on 'show new replies to your post' you can not unwatch threads that you never 'watched' but just replied.

It also annoys me to continue to see certain threads in there that I am not interested anymore to see. And whenever someone replies to that thread it shows in top of list again :/

Very interesting post. Thanks so much for sharing

I do find it also strange why someone would buy 5 or 10k coins at market. Does it not make logical sense to buy half at market but also make sure half are not filled immediately? Chances are very high that it will be filled as your new wall is considerably higher than last price?

(I understand that in the bubble runup such new higher wall could not be filled and a complete market order could be rational, but today can one make a reasonable case for that?)

I also vote for bigger charts again from chart buddy as I don't bother clicking the small ones and prefer to ignore him altogether. A good proposal was to make the chart at least as big as the minimum post size.

Such a warm hearth. Thank you

Thx for reminding me. It's so hard to not fall pray to my bullish bitcoin part!

What do u guys think of this bitcoin t-shirt? http://store.robberbaronswag.com/product/bitcoin-themed-shirt

Price leads everything. If you are a bull, make it happen

I have also recently given up on gox for withdrawals and price reference. The news that withdrawals are solved proved to be false. It's been too long. I think it's very likely a whale finally also gave up on gox and was willing to accept the loss. We could be near a tipping point indeed.

I remember the wall observer threads when the market was bubbling. Zoomed out, the buying wall looked like a tsunami, ready to overflood the gradual upward curve of the selling wall. Some made drawings of surf boarders on the buying waves, and on the selling wall, drawed people fleeing from the wave etc.

Since the crash I've seen the inverse, now the selling wall looks like a wave, sometimes tsunami, ready to overflow the gradual upward curve of the buying wall.

I'm surprised these pictures showing the strong selling tsunami and making funny drawings on it are not posted here though. Or did I miss those?

I've come to the same opinion and have very little hope for $30 to be reached as I realized recently that even in 2011 the bottom ($2) was twice as high as the previous top before the bubble ($1). Twice as high as the top before the bubble ($30) would be $60 now but since $60 has been touched twice already I think chances are 50/50 it won't happen again. I realize this is contradictory to the bubble collapse theory which points to $40 only to be reached in a few months, as SlipperySlope explains so well. But he too is open to a reflating of the bubble before it deflates fully.

The gox exodus doesn't explain the strong buying happening on bitstamp. Someone wants coins really bad there and I highly doubt this to be arbitrageurs as the risk seems too high for their fiat stuck on gox. Is it just a pump and dumper or is it the rich taking a small position? I'm betting on the latter as all gates are open for them now. Bitcoin has proven to survive the 2011 depression, and the recent bubble gave bitcoin mainstream attention and above all legal approval from different government institutions. The price halving from the top is likely enough for them to take a small position already 'just in case it doesn't drop further'.  

Impaler, I think it was, also gave some good counterarguments one must look at volume and not time to see whether the deflating of the bubble is over. Based on volume it is. Also he confirmed how the rich are able to absorb more price volatitlity. Indeed, who cares if it's only a small percentage of your capital that you buy at $100 or $50 if the potential of it is to tenfold in 2-3 years? Most important is to take the small exposure, and not be left out.

I think it's time to become bullish again, though I certainly might be proven wrong.

ok, but if you sell again you in fact didn't buy anything on bitstamp, and still the price follows gox. The one buying from you does support a higher price on stamp. Someone in the end really wants those coins on bitstamp too and is supporting the price to go up, right?

Great post rationalspeculator!

Still a 50% chance that it will go down, and a 50% chance that it will go up, is NOT a good speculation. Be careful. Better to speculate also on gold and silver right now since there at least chances are higher it will go up rather than down, that's a good speculation. Always keep a position in bitcoin though since long term it's still the best speculation ever. Current exposure of my portfolio to bitcoin 20% and 5% cash ready on exchange to buy on corrections. Gold & silver also 25%.

I think institutional investors are a long way off. There is barely one hedge fund investing in bitcoin. ETF's are in the planning phase. Likely some institutional investors heard about bitcoin in this recent bubble, but how long did it take you to invest after you heard about it for the first time? It took me 1 year of ignoring it after that, and another year of rejecting it before I folded, and I consider myself a critical knowledgeable independent investor that is free to invest in anything and doesn't need to report to anyone.

What we saw a month ago when it dropped to $65 was not despair. Despair was in 2011.

Right before the recent drop to $65 most were still bulls here. And when that drop crossed $80 some prominent people here became bear and spammed the forum. I saw for the first time the forum switching to mostly bears and indeed there was fear and finally an agreement that we indeed are in a bear market (took them a 3 month long drop from $266 to below $80 before finally recognizing! *shrugs head*). And now it's again 50/50 bulls/bears.

We might not get capitulation and despair this time around, agreed, but if anything we are in the back to normal phase with some fear right before.


More indications against the 'return to the mean' is that not a single chart will draw a line corresponding with the pre-bubble growth to the current $100, they all point to somewhere around $50.

mtgox selling a worsening of deposits as 'a relief'. lol

Glad I'm out of there.

lol

Interesting. I also was surprised to see bitstamp move while gox not. I agree it's different than catch up as mostly that happens shortly after a move on gox, probably done by arbitrageurs. This time it seems that it's new capital flowing in that pushes up the price at bitstamp.

On the other hand, this makes me realize there might actually be little new capital flowing into bitcoin? Since it won't have gone to gox in months and only now it seems to show in bitstamp?

Actually the price proves that more capital has fled than entered bitcoin since the peak in April.

Hey crumbs

I admire your modesty.

I also did not expect this. It's a strong breakout from the previous gradual bubble deflation.

Thanks for the sharing your confidence 

I can use some

I'm really starting to doubt myself, and that is generally close to the turn so good indicator but still difficult times when market goes vertical, whatever direction.

I'm also surprised to see bitstamp continuing to follow. Gap is only 10%, not widening. And coins are also drying out seriously as of today.

I can honestly say that bitcoin continues to flabbergast me.

In any case I stick to my strategy to sell in strength.

Just talking his book, like most bitcoiners

He has some spare cash though to actually create that reality.

But do barking dogs bite?

I'm all cheering for prices to drop but I see good reason also:

this board looks dead, even with lots of price action
turnover on mtgox looks low compared to previous rise and falls where you would easily have 50K in 24h, now it's only 20k
turnover on bitstamp is also 20k, equally high as mtgox on strong move, that's new right?
bitstamp seems to be leading most moves now, meaning mtgox is really over

This is just fiction. Waste someone else his time.

http://www.idesigntimes.com/articles/7567/20130907/president-obama-really-call-putin-names-g20.htm

but you are...

Great post Walsoraj!

If you offer a stop loss would you not simply put the coins for sale at the stop loss? How can they end up not being sold then?

I'm getting bored with bitcoin and this forum. Nothing's happening. Even when gox is down price remains stagnant these days. 

Maybe I should find myself a girlfriend, will probably be much more satisfying 

Goddamned, I suspected that, thanks for informing me.

Motivates me even more to support the new Kraken exchange that offers EUR.

I can't believe all EUR exchanges have seized operations. BTC24 was great but still down and frozen and why bitcoin-central continues to be down is a total mystery to me. Sure they got hacked but c'mon, they were doing everything according to regultions, had a good banking partner and with the shutdown of btc24 the platform was finally starting to get turnover. Yet they decide to remain shutdown for months now because they want to improve security against hackers. I just don't get it.

Nice I want such GF too! Any tips?  

That is a 'tour de force' as Bill Gates would say. Outperforming a buy and hold over a period where bitcoin went up, what 10,000% ?

Sorry but that is just a rediculous claim you make there. I won't even bother asking for evidence. :/

In that case they would take all the financial risk by buying coins already without having the clients their money.

(Since they cannot accept clients money before the ETF is approved and launched.)

I don't think it's them. They have enough coins themselves too.


I don't think it is a new buyer since he would buy where it is cheapest: bitstamp.

I still think it's someone wanting out of gox. And preferring coins for the moment over directly liquidating at bitstamp.

I estimate 10% now that price tenfolded since they bought last year.

That might not look like a large exposure but I think they started with only 1% so they basically did not believe hard in it, and in 1 year it worked out already becoming a considerable chunk of their capital. If anything they are sellers not buyers I think. Balancing greed and fear they are likely just holding and working on the ETF to make more money off bitcoin and their reputation.

Why you ask?

bitoin mining = for those who prefer to work instead of think

It does not make sense that there will be a nosedive on gox - if - they end up failing. Then news will get worse and worse and price will go up due to people wanting out and less and less coins offered. One day trading will be halted abruptly and liquidation of company started.

Other exchanges will disconnect more and more from mtgox price as they have different supply and demand realities. They will start taking the lead in price swings, as bitstamp recently showed already. A collapsing price at bitstamp may be followed by gox but to a much lesser extent as gox buyers will be willing to pay 50% over actual value, as they correctly calculate they will lose likely more if gox fails.

I don't mind paying for something.

I feel less free on Linux or Apple.

Security is weaker on windows but to have the security linux offers is not for free. It comes at a high time/knowledge/discomfort price.  

good critique

he lost reputation in my eyes. I thought he was a visionary but such post is considered bear spam here, of the dumb kind.

another one that sold out for cheap and blames his mistake on the market...

I find the red and green colors very confusing on i286

green should be buys, red should be sells but I understand it's the inverse, right?

I see no such volume anywhere.

Sellers selling slowly = bullish ?

What world do you live in  

Let me guess: all in land  

Where facts and reason build serve the position.

Or are you just trying to compensate for Falkevinke his all-out 'logic'? 

funny 

Wauw, not a single post in 24h. Speculation on btc exchange rate mtgox is now officially dead. Luckily there is always action somewhere in bitcoin land.  Just-Dice got cleaned again by some whale.

You are right, and I do think mtgox will come back with a vengeance - if - they succeed in solving their banking problem. Even if their turnover dies totally in the meantime. 

But I'm surprised bitstamp already has double the turnover on slow days. Bitcoinland does evolve quickly.

Very good question

Do you want to buy for the current price of around $135 for sure?

Or do you doubt about buying at current price and think about waiting for it to go lower?

So how are the speculators doing here?

Price seems to hold, I expected it to fall by now.

We are almost October, still 3 months to go before the end of the year.

I'm still thinking/hoping we will see a dip between now and the end of the year.

You are such a permabull, it's starting to irritate me

Is it honest analyses?

Or just pumping?

How is your track record?

that made me smile

thanks

+1 thanks for your good arguments

I have similar positions and plans. Fingers crossed as it is risky.

So true.

Let's keep Buffet out though, he's getting old.

nope, people are just waking up at gox

would this gox withdrawal issue have raised the price? I used to think so due to people buying their way out via coins but the continuous 1 btc sales are probably from gox indeed raising cash since most of their cash got stolen. A large holder liquidating their coins that otherwise would not have been sold might have neutralized the upward effect?

I just hate this rise. Sold too many coins No trust anymore that it will go down again to $100. Maybe $130-$150 at best.

We are close to touching the old time high again. This is not 2011.

I'm eating my cake and it tastes like chit.  

Risk management might suffer from faulty logic.

What is the riskiest?

An investment with average risk of loss and high potential reward (buy and hold btc),
or an investment with low risk of loss and average potential reward (sell btc as it goes up and lock in profit)?

It depends, risk of losing money is the highest in first, but risk of missing out on a rare opportunity to become a billionaire is highest in second.

Thanks for bringing that up Blitz. You are right. I really needed to lock in some profit from btc. It has given me large utility in quality of life, security, confidence.


By the way, I think you are doing a great job moderating the forum. I haven't seen censorship, yet you do keep it clean, removing bump posts and keeping speculation forum on topic.

 

Thanks so much Oda.

Yeah, I switched strategy to not sell anymore as it goes up. When price moved back up from $65 to $100, as I was selling the buying was very strong. I figured we just might have seen the low already and from here it's up but by that time I had already sold half of the coins I started with.

Glad I switched strategy but regrets also.

I did not make fun of you. I called you out on you making fun of him. I also called you out on a bad call you made. The current price being $200 or even $1000 does not turn your past short term bad calls into good ones.

 

give me that pipe of yours! Seems some pretty good shit you have there.

Corrected that for u.

Just read up on Cyprus, stock market down 98%. People losing their life savings in bank defaults. Barely any cash available, cannot send money anywhere. Buying bitcoins? I don't think so. Except for the rare smart guy like in any country. It will take time I'm afraid, eventhough bitcoin is the solution, it does require intelligence and risk tolerance against volatility to get it and do it.

I think this google trend as well as my recent poll here show that we are inbreading. Bitcoiners buying bitcoin.

Agreed but you are off by magnitudes. If btc 100 folds to $10.000 and succeeds in getting market cap of a few hunderd billion you get google like market cap and similar volatility, which can still be a drop of 50% in a few months (2008). Even the largest currencies that are valued in the trillions like Euro or gold go up or down by 5% vs the USD on a regular basis. A drop of 50% is also possible though that takes a few years.

No, what did you do there?

Glad to see one bear still standing

Bitstamp now again over $200.

This is becoming a nightmare.

Been watching with unbelief since price rebounded from $85 only 3 weeks back.

Tempted to panic buy.

You are right. I may add that price is far above long term, already exponential, growth line (around $80), and returns this year are now equally high as 2011 year (1300%). I would think that percentage increases must go down over time as market cap goes up, so indeed: risky.

However, it is possible that adoption, and price, follow an S curve and that we are now in the first curve where adoption, and price, actually go up faster and faster. This means the uprise of 2013 would be considerably stronger percentage wise, not weaker as the similar 2011 rise.

In case of doubt choose for the side of safety. Question is, from which perspective: that bitcoin is money, or fiat is money?

You are evidence of the contrary.

Only when you become silent bears or careful bulls shall we go down, after first a final euforia spike.

Or have you proven in the past to be a vocal bear before it collapsed?

I hereby want to apologize to all the permabulls I have been finger pointing, cypherdoc, rampion, justusranvier and many others here.

Golden advice.

Thanks for helping me see this Rampion.

Interesting! Thanks for sharing.

Hi guys, just launched a new question thread why price is highest at bitstamp now.